Presentation type:

NP – Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

NP1.1 – Mathematics of Planet Earth (including Lewis Fry Richardson Medal Lecture and NP Division Outstanding ECS Lecture) (co-organized)

EGU2018-367 | Posters | NP1.1

Investigating inertial particle transport for application in tracking plastic litter in the ocean
Birgit Sützl, Pavel Berloff, and Erik van Sebille

EGU2018-13308 | Orals | NP1.1 | Highlight

Topological Origin of Geophysical Waves.
Antoine Venaille, Pierre Delplace, and Brad Marston

EGU2018-381 | Posters | NP1.1

Asymptotic limit analysis for compatible numerics in numerical weather prediction
Golo Wimmer and Colin Cotter

EGU2018-5958 | Posters | NP1.1 | Highlight

Wave breaking for the Stochastic Camassa-Holm equation
Dan Crisan and Darryl Holm

EGU2018-4162 | Orals | NP1.1

Emergence of coherent structures in convectively driven baroclinic flows
Nikolaos Bakas and Petros Ioannou

EGU2018-4649 | Posters | NP1.1

Numerically Modelling Stochastic Lie Transport in Quasi-Geostrophic Dynamics
Igor Shevchenko, Colin Cotter, Dan Crisan, Darryl Holm, and Wei Pan

EGU2018-6722 | Orals | NP1.1

Decomposition of the general atmospheric circulation on a thermodynamic space
Aitor Aldama Campino and Kristofer Döös

EGU2018-2209 | Orals | NP1.1

On the validity of linear response theory in high-dimensional deterministic dynamical systems
Georg Gottwald and Caroline Wormell

EGU2018-4644 | Posters | NP1.1

Effective subgrid-scale parameterization for one-dimensional shallow water dynamics using stochastic mode reduction
Matthias Zacharuk, Stamen Dolaptchiev, Ilya Timofeyev, and Ulrich Achatz

EGU2018-6141 | Posters | NP1.1

Entropy Production and Fluctuation Theorem in General Circulation Models
Bastian Sommerfeld

EGU2018-1569 | Orals | NP1.1

A fluctuation-dissipation relation for the ocean subject to turbulent atmospheric forcing
Achim Wirth

EGU2018-8781 | Orals | NP1.1

A proof of concept for scale-adaptive parametrizations: the case of the Lorenz ’96 model
Gabriele Vissio and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-12005 | Posters | NP1.1

Atmospheric circulation and energy transport changes in warm climates
Hamza Kunhu Bangalth and Olivier M Pauluis

EGU2018-15101 | Posters | NP1.1

Intensification of Strongly Tilted Tropical Vortices Through Asymmetric Diabatic Heating
Tom Dörffel, Ariane Papke, Rupert Klein, and Piotr Smolarkiewicz

EGU2018-4587 | Orals | NP1.1

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra

EGU2018-7736 | Posters | NP1.1

Entropy Production and Coarse Graining of the Climate Fields in a General Circulation Model
Valerio Lucarini and Salvatore Pascale

EGU2018-10073 | Posters | NP1.1

Hyperbolic Covariant Coherent Structures in Two Dimensional Flows
Gualtiero Badin and Giovanni Conti

EGU2018-703 | Orals | NP1.1

Data Assimilation for a Stochastic Rotating Shallow Water Model
Oana Lang

EGU2018-10499 | Posters | NP1.1

Variability of Stochastically Forced Beta-Plane Zonal Jets
Laura Cope and Peter Haynes

EGU2018-6046 | Orals | NP1.1

Numerically Modelling Stochastic Lie Transport in Fluid Dynamics
Colin Cotter, Dan Crisan, Darryl Holm, Wei Pan, and Igor Shevchenko

EGU2018-212 | Posters | NP1.1

A novel scaling indicator of early warning signals helps anticipate tropical cyclones
Joshua Prettyman, Tobias Kuna, and Valerie Livina

EGU2018-18644 | Orals | NP1.1

Handling Uncertainty in Palaeo-Climate Models and Data
Jochen Voss, Alan Haywood, Aisling Dolan, and Dario Domingo

EGU2018-18722 | Orals | NP1.1

Statistical Mechanics and the Climatology of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Distribution
Srikanth Toppaladoddi and John Wettlaufer

EGU2018-16415 | Posters | NP1.1

Stochastic geophysics, multifractal vector fields and examples of Lie algebra of their generators
Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia and Daniel Schertzer

EGU2018-11735 | Orals | NP1.1

Linking Scales in the Sea Ice System
Kenneth Golden

EGU2018-5709 | Posters | NP1.1

Reconciling the Paltridge and Lorenz thermodynamic selection criteria for climate steady states
Roderick Dewar

EGU2018-13291 | Posters | NP1.1

Global Entropy Production from Spectral Radiative Flux
Goodwin Gibbins and Joanna Haigh

EGU2018-1384 | Orals | NP1.1

Computation and characterization of local sub-filter-scale energy transfers in atmospheric flows
Davide Faranda, Valerio Lembo, Manasa Iyer, Denis Kuzzay, Sergio Chibbaro, Francois Daviaud, and Berengere Dubrulle

EGU2018-9809 | Posters | NP1.1

A Statistical Mechanical Approach for the Parametrization of the Coupling in a Fast-Slow System
Gabriele Vissio and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-18316 | Posters | NP1.1

Scale Separation of the Dominating Linear Instability Modes and the Background State in a Primitive Equation Model
Sebastian Schubert and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-13098 | Orals | NP1.1

The sporadic nature of atmospheric heat transport in a hierarchy of models
Gabriele Messori, Ruth Geen, and Arnaud Czaja

EGU2018-8107 | Orals | NP1.1

The link between extremes of temporal and spatial averages in a simplified atmospheric circulation model
Vera Melinda Galfi, Jeroen Wouters, and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-14876 | Posters | NP1.1

Covariant Lyapunov vectors of a quasi-geostrophic baroclinic model: analysis of instabilities and feedbacks
Sebastian Schubert and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-19167 | Posters | NP1.1

Lyapunov Analysis applied to multiscale dynamics : the Lorenz 96 model
Mallory Carlu, Antonio Politi, and Francesco Ginelli

EGU2018-859 | Orals | NP1.1

Error bounds for data assimilation in dissipative systems with unbounded observation noise
Lea Oljaca, Jochen Broecker, and Tobias Kuna

EGU2018-14894 | Orals | NP1.1

Rate-induced tipping in nonautonomous dynamical systems with bounded noise
Giulia Carigi, Jochen Broecker, and Martin Rasmussen

EGU2018-8169 | Posters | NP1.1

A new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models
Valerio Lembo and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-13258 | Orals | NP1.1

Set-oriented approach for predicting critical transitions in geophysical flows
Moussa Ndour, Kathrin Padberg-Gehle, and Martin Rasmussen

EGU2018-8312 | Posters | NP1.1

Looking for relationships between the ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon in MPI-ESM and CESM ensembles under increasing greenhouse-gas forcing
Tamas Bodai, Matyas Herein, Gabor Drotos, Valerio Lucarini, and Frank Lunkeit

EGU2018-17657 | Posters | NP1.1

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science
Woosok Moon and John Wettlaufer

EGU2018-8403 | Posters | NP1.1

Wildfire propagation modelling
Gianni Pagnini, Vera Egorova, Andrea Trucchia, Andrea Mentrelli, and Inderpreet Kaur

EGU2018-14880 | Orals | NP1.1

Pullback attractors of a low-order ocean model subject to deterministic and random forcing
Michael Ghil, Stefano Pierini, and Mickael Chekroun

EGU2018-10670 | Orals | NP1.1

Stochastic partial differential fluid equations as a diffusive limit of deterministic Lagrangian multi-time dynamics
Colin Cotter, Georg Gottwald, and Darryl Holm

EGU2018-16211 | Posters | NP1.1

The dynamics of inertial particle ensembles in raindrop formation and sedimentation.
Harry Stott, Andrew Lawrie, and Robert Szalai

EGU2018-8511 | Posters | NP1.1

What is the correct cost function of weakly constrained 4DVar?
Jochen Broecker

EGU2018-2811 | Orals | NP1.1

From Determinism to Probability in Numerical Weather Prediction
Tim Palmer

EGU2018-10512 | Posters | NP1.1

Parametrization of fast subgrid-scale processes using Edgeworth expansions
Jeroen Wouters and Georg Gottwald

EGU2018-5085 | Posters | NP1.1

A dynamical systems approach to the Pleistocene climate
Hans Engler, Hans Kaper, Tasso Kaper, and Theodore Vo

EGU2018-15917 | Posters | NP1.1

Multifractal Intermittency and Ensemble Prediction Systems
Daniel Schertzer, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Stephane Vannitsem

EGU2018-6250 | Posters | NP1.1

Reduction of long-term drift and construction of multiple-equilibrium states in aquaplanets
Maura Brunetti and Christian Vérard

EGU2018-3355 | Posters | NP1.1

Climate-Dependence in empirically tuned Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations using the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem
Martin Pieroth, Matthias Zacharuk, Stamen Dolaptchiev, Tobias Heppelmann, Andrey Gritsun, and Ulrich Achatz

EGU2018-7431 | Posters | NP1.1

Dynamical objects governing transport processes in the Arctic Ocean.
Ana M. Mancho, Francisco Balibrea-Iniesta, Jiping Xie, Víctor-José García-Garrido, Laurent Bertino, and Stephen Wiggins

EGU2018-16666 | Posters | NP1.1

Universality and extreme tail fluctuation properties in transport systems
John Bruun and Spiros Evangelou

EGU2018-6978 | Posters | NP1.1

Pattern formation in climate networks - from aquaplanet simulations to real climate
Frederik Wolf, Catrin Kirsch, Aiko Voigt, and Reik V. Donner

EGU2018-14435 | Posters | NP1.1

Estimating return times with rare event algorithms
Corentin Herbert, Thibault Lestang, Francesco Ragone, Charles-Edouard Bréhier, and Freddy Bouchet

EGU2018-9543 | Posters | NP1.1

Extreme values for dynamical systems and linear response
Tobias Kuna, Valerio Lucarini, Viviane Baladi, Jeroen Wouters, and Davide Faranda

EGU2018-13696 | Posters | NP1.1

Entropy versus Available Potential Energy: What is the right way to define the thermodynamic efficiency of the climate system?
Remi Tailleux

NP2.1 – ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability and Modelling (co-organized)

EGU2018-1564 | Orals | NP2.1

Understanding the warm water volume precursor of ENSO events and its interdecadal variation
Sonja Neske and Shayne McGregor

EGU2018-2067 | Posters | NP2.1

Diagnosing present day and future ENSO precipitation shifts using surface relative humidity and temperature
Alexander Todd, Matthew Collins, F. Hugo Lambert, and Robin Chadwick

EGU2018-2413 | Posters | NP2.1

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate forcings
Yiyong Luo

EGU2018-1983 | Orals | NP2.1

Thermocline feedback associated with the increasing occurrence of Central Pacific ENSO assessed using a linear, multi-mode model
Xiaoting Zhu, Richard Greatbatch, and Martin Claus

EGU2018-3302 | Posters | NP2.1

Eastern and Central Pacific types of ENSO – A new classification method
Joong-Bae Ahn and Hye-In Jeong

EGU2018-8559 | Orals | NP2.1

Unprecedented 2015/16 Indo-Pacific heat transfer speeds up Tropical Pacific heat recharge
Michael Mayer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, and Leopold Haimberger

EGU2018-6411 | Orals | NP2.1

On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation
Takeshi Izumo, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jerome Vialard, Iyyappan Suresh, and Yann Planton

EGU2018-4188 | Posters | NP2.1

The Possible Impact of El Niño Events of Different Types and Intensity on the Precipitation in the Following First Flood Season in South China
Hong yu Wu

EGU2018-13179 | Orals | NP2.1

The warm water volume, a better predictor of La Niña than of El Niño amplitude
Yann Planton, Éric Guilyardi, Matthieu Lengaigne, and Jérôme Vialard

EGU2018-4847 | Posters | NP2.1

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Cloud Cover in Central Taiwan
Yen-Jen Lai

EGU2018-11560 | Orals | NP2.1

Predicting El Nino Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
Jong-Seong Kug, Jae-Heung Park, Tim Li, Swadhin Behera, and Jee-Hoon Jeong

EGU2018-6619 | Posters | NP2.1

The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO
Chaim Garfinkel, Israel Weinberger, Luke Oman, Valentina Aquila, Ian White, and Young-Kwon Lim

EGU2018-5666 | Posters | NP2.1

Contrasting the Skills and Biases of Deterministic Predictions for the Two Types of El Nino
Fei Zheng and Jin-Yi Yu

EGU2018-14306 | Orals | NP2.1

Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015 with Met Office GloSea5 and ECMWF System4
Sarah Ineson, Magdalena Balmaseda, Mike Davey, Damien Decremer, Nick Dunstone, Margaret Gordon, Hongli Ren, Adam Scaife, and Antje Weisheimer

EGU2018-11362 | Posters | NP2.1 | Highlight

Impact of stochastic parametrisation schemes on El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Community Climate System Model
Hannah Christensen and Judith Berner

EGU2018-9104 | Orals | NP2.1

ENSO change in climate projections: forced response or internal variability?
Nicola Maher, Daniela Matei, Sebastian Milinski, Thibault Tabarin, and Jochem Marotzke

EGU2018-6627 | Orals | NP2.1

ENSO's different flavors and global patterns of seasonal climate anomalies
Catrin Kirsch, Anna Lensch, and Reik Donner

EGU2018-8789 | Posters | NP2.1

Does ENSO affect the observing conditions in the Atacama Desert?
Elina Plesca, Martin Burgdorf, Johannes Lutzmann, and Stefan A. Buehler

EGU2018-11618 | Orals | NP2.1

Understanding regional teleconnections from strong El Niño events: a case study of east Australian springtime rainfall
Peter van Rensch, Julie Arblaster, Ailie Gallant, Wenju Cai, Neville Nicholls, and Paul Durack

EGU2018-19364 | Posters | NP2.1

A potential for La Nina-like climate change in the ENSO Recharge-Oscillator framework.
Dietmar Dommenget and Asha Vijayeta

EGU2018-1273 | Orals | NP2.1

Changes in structure and radiative impact of mesoscale convective systems with ENSO phase
Sylvia Sullivan and Pierre Gentine

EGU2018-939 | Posters | NP2.1

The relationship between GCM biases and internal low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific
Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jason E. Smerdon, Sloan Coats, and Lei Zhang

EGU2018-3742 | Posters | NP2.1

Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014
Michael McPhaden and Lu Dong

EGU2018-3275 | Orals | NP2.1

Mean-State Dependence of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks and ENSO dynamics in climate models
Tobias Bayr, Mojib Latif, Dietmar Dommenget, Christian Wengel, Joke Lübbecke, Jan Harlaß, and Wonsun Park

EGU2018-4278 | Posters | NP2.1

Can high-resolution GCMs unravel Indian Ocean - ENSO interaction?
Claudia Wieners, Henk Dijkstra, and Will de Ruijter

EGU2018-7010 | Posters | NP2.1

Analysis and indications on long-term forecasting of the Oceanic Niño Index with wavelet-induced components
Samuel Nicolay and Adrien Deliège

EGU2018-10745 | Posters | NP2.1 | Highlight

The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO Diversity
Erin Thomas, Daniel Vimont, Matthew Newman, and Cecile Penland

EGU2018-5884 | Posters | NP2.1

Uncertainties in Simulated ENSO Arising from Internal Climate Variability
Chao Sun, Li Liu, Lijuan Li, Bin Wang, Cheng Zhang, Qun Liu, and Ruizhe Li

EGU2018-2633 | Posters | NP2.1

The Impacts of Bias in Cloud-Radiation-Dynamics Interactions on Central-Pacific Seasonal and El Nino Simulations in Contemporary GCMs
juilin Li, Ettammal Suhas, Mark Richardson, Wei-Liang Lee, Yi-Hui Wang, Jia-Yuh Yu, Tong Lee, Eric Fetzer, and Graeme Stephens

EGU2018-11002 | Posters | NP2.1

Extracting and predicting ENSO through Koopman operator analysis
Dimitrios Giannakis and Joanna Slawinska

EGU2018-14391 | Posters | NP2.1

The impact of stochastic physics on the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the EC-Earth coupled model
Chunxue Yang, Hannah Christensen, Susanna Corti, Jost von Hardenberg, and Paolo Davini

EGU2018-5730 | Posters | NP2.1

Regional changes to the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Sarah Perry, Shayne McGregor, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew England, and Scott Power

EGU2018-16710 | Posters | NP2.1

Impact of SST diurnal cycle on ENSO asymmetry
Fangxing Tian, Jin-Song von Storch, and Eileen Hertwig

NP2.2 – Dynamical Extremes in Climate Sciences (co-organized)

EGU2018-9451 | Orals | NP2.2

Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions
Valerio Lucarini and Tamas Bodai

EGU2018-597 | Posters | NP2.2

Recent trends in extreme weather: A model study
Joakim Kjellsson, Wonsun Park, and Mojib Latif

EGU2018-15634 | Orals | NP2.2 | Highlight

Future changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and sub-daily time scales
Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriele Villarini, Marcello Vichi, Matteo Zampieri, Alessio Bellucci, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Silvio Gualdi

EGU2018-1128 | Posters | NP2.2

Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe
Aglae Jezequel, Julien Cattiaux, Philippe Naveau, Sabine Radanovics, Aurélien Ribes, Robert Vautard, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou

EGU2018-18155 | Orals | NP2.2

Reflective stratospheric polar vortex pattern linked to North American cold-extremes
Marlene Kretschmer, Judah Cohen, Jakob Runge, and Dim Coumou

EGU2018-2070 | Posters | NP2.2

The impact of polar amplification on mid-latitude Rossby waves and persistent circulation patterns using idealized numerical modeling
Emilien Jolly, Fabio D'Andrea, and Gwendal Rivière

EGU2018-3259 | Posters | NP2.2

Formation Mechanism of an Extreme Hot Weather in North China on 12-13 July 2015
Ying Na and Riyu Lu

EGU2018-8506 | Orals | NP2.2

Local dimension and recurrent circulation patterns in long-term climate simulations
Sebastian Buschow and Petra Friederichs

EGU2018-3847 | Posters | NP2.2

On integral description of an individual atmospheric vortex systems: an application to blocking anticyclone in the Arctic
Alexander Kislov and Natalia Sokolikhina

EGU2018-13939 | Orals | NP2.2

Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues
Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou, and Sabine Radanovics

EGU2018-4390 | Posters | NP2.2

Dimension boundaries for spatially extended fields and implications for climate extremes
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Gabriele Messori, M Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Davide Faranda

EGU2018-8456 | Orals | NP2.2 | Highlight

The severe drought of 2016-2017 in Western Europe
Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Jose M. Garrido-Perez, David Barriopedro, Carlos Ordóñez, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, and Pascal Yiou

EGU2018-4407 | Posters | NP2.2

Dynamics and Thermodynamics of weather extremes: a dynamical systems approach
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, James Doss-Gollin, David J Farnham, Upmanu Lall, and Pascal Yiou

EGU2018-4928 | Posters | NP2.2

Statistical-mechanical approach to study the hydrodynamic stability of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer
Guillaume Nevo, Nikki Vercauteren, Amandine Kaiser, Berengere Dubrulle, and Davide Faranda

EGU2018-5453 | Posters | NP2.2

Wavenumber decomposition of midlatitude meridional energy transports and extremes
Valerio Lembo, Gabriele Messori, and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-6554 | Posters | NP2.2

Selective Ensemble Mean Technique for Severe Mid-latitude Storms
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori

EGU2018-7316 | Posters | NP2.2

Dynamical properties, seasonality and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou

EGU2018-7345 | Posters | NP2.2

A comparison of the North Atlantic atmospheric dynamics in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Ensemble over the past 150 years
David Rodrigues, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Pascal Yiou, Yoann Robin, and Davide Faranda

EGU2018-7709 | Posters | NP2.2

Stochastic stability of the Lorenz’63 model under anthropogenic type forcing
Sandro Vaienti and Michele Gianfelice

EGU2018-8196 | Posters | NP2.2

Universal properties of extremes in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model
Vera Melinda Galfi, Tamas Bodai, and Valerio Lucarini

EGU2018-9145 | Posters | NP2.2

Attribution of extreme rainfall events in the South of France using EURO-CORDEX simulations
Linh Nhat Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, and Geert Lenderink

EGU2018-10358 | Posters | NP2.2

Long-term trends in the dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation across reanalyses and model simulations
M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, and Pascal Yiou

EGU2018-11528 | Posters | NP2.2

The combined effects of the Arctic warming and the ENSO on the Mid-latitude winter temperature anomalies
Woo-Seop Lee, Miah Kim, and Seon Tae Kim

EGU2018-11646 | Posters | NP2.2

Variability of Extreme Temperatures in South Korea Using Generalized Extreme Value Distributions
MinHo Kwon and Kang-Jin Lee

EGU2018-12237 | Posters | NP2.2

Improved dynamics due to introducing a nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and thermodynamic origin of the remaining errors
Kathrin Wehrli, Benoît P. Guillod, Mathias Hauser, Matthieu Leclair, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

EGU2018-12409 | Posters | NP2.2

Dynamical proxies as a tool for Seasonal forecast.
M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Stefano Materia, Davide Faranda, and Silvio Gualdi

EGU2018-12964 | Posters | NP2.2

Constrained Maximum Entropy Prodution Principle as a radiative-convective parametrization
Vincent Labarre, Didier Paillard, and Bérengère Dubrulle

EGU2018-14786 | Posters | NP2.2

Characterising the dynamical regimes of the global atmospheric circulation using local predictability and persistence measures
Nili Harnik, Gabriele Messori, Davide Farnada, and Orli Lachmy

EGU2018-15807 | Posters | NP2.2

Web Processing Services for extreme weather event assessments
Nikolay Kadygrov, Pascal Yiou, Nils Hempelmann, Carsten Ehbrecht, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Aglaé Jézéquel, Sabine Radanovics, Robert Vautard, and Sébastien Denvil

EGU2018-16815 | Posters | NP2.2

Chaotic Crisis and Climate Sensitivity: a Transfer Operator Approach
Alexis Tantet, Valerio Lucarini, Henk Dijkstra, and Frank Lunkeit

EGU2018-18360 | Posters | NP2.2

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan
Maida Zahid, Valerio Lucarini, Richard Blender, and Maria Caterina Bramati

EGU2018-18964 | Posters | NP2.2

The dynamics of synchronized weather extremes: Planetary wave-resonance and circumglobal teleconnections
Kai Kornhuber, Vladimir Petoukhov, Stefan Petri, Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, and Dim Coumou

EGU2018-19759 | Posters | NP2.2

East Asian winter temperature anomalies modulated by the circumglobal teleconnections and the coupling with Eurasian teleconnections
Ruyan Chen, Wenyu Huang, Bin Wang, and Zifan Yang

NP2.4 – New model and data-based approaches to study climate behavior

EGU2018-6421 | Orals | NP2.4

On climate prediction: How much can we expect from climate memory?
Naiming Yuan, Yan Huang, Jianping Duan, Congwen Zhu, Elena Xoplaki, and Juerg Luterbacher

EGU2018-181 | Posters | NP2.4

An energy consistent stochastic 2 layer QG model
Federica Gugole and Christian Franzke

EGU2018-5534 | Orals | NP2.4

Stochastic Variational Principles for GFD: Modelling the unknown unknowns
Darryl Holm

EGU2018-1591 | Posters | NP2.4

A Hilbert approach to investigate climate connectivity
Dario Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller

EGU2018-2071 | Posters | NP2.4

Isolating forced signals in observations and climate model simulations: Empirical climate emulators and M-SSA based optimal filtering
Christian Grimm, Shijie Gu, and Sergey Kravtsov

EGU2018-8386 | Orals | NP2.4

Predictability of Fat-tailed Extremes
Tamas Bodai and Christian Franzke

EGU2018-2604 | Orals | NP2.4

Representing uncertainties in the Next Generation Global Prediction System associated with unresolved flows
Lisa Bengtsson, Jian-Wen Bao, Philip Pegion, Sara Michaelson, Cecile Penland, and Jeffrey Withaker

EGU2018-2583 | Posters | NP2.4

Comparison of stochastic parameterizations in the framework of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
Jonathan Demaeyer and Stéphane Vannitsem

EGU2018-3222 | Orals | NP2.4

A transition between a quasi-linear and nonlinear regime of the tropospheric jet stream
Orli Lachmy and Nili Harnik

EGU2018-3229 | Posters | NP2.4

Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China
Meng Gao

EGU2018-4168 | Posters | NP2.4

A geometric representation of the eddy stresses underlying the emergence of jets in barotropic turbulence
Georgios Kontogiannis and Nikolaos Bakas

EGU2018-11289 | Orals | NP2.4

Constraining Stochastic Parametrisation Schemes using High-Resolution Model Simulations
Hannah Christensen, Andrew Dawson, and Tim Palmer

EGU2018-8073 | Orals | NP2.4 | Highlight

Forced Non-autonomous Empirical Model of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition
Evgeny Loskutov, Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey Gavrilov, Alexey Seleznev, and Alexander Feigin

EGU2018-5771 | Posters | NP2.4

Data-driven multiscale stochastic emulators: application to the oceanic gyres
Dmitri Kondrashov, Mickael Chekroun, and Pavel Berloff

EGU2018-15457 | Orals | NP2.4

Identifying sudden dynamical shifts in time series with uncertainties
Bedartha Goswami, Niklas Boers, Aljoscha Rheinwalt, Norbert Marwan, Jobst Heitzig, Sebastian Breitenbach, and Jürgen Kurths

EGU2018-7237 | Posters | NP2.4

Comparison of tropical and frontal storms using complex networks
Ugur Öztürk, Nishant Malik, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths

EGU2018-3683 | Orals | NP2.4

Causal dependences between the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the Tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans

EGU2018-3802 | Posters | NP2.4

Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Thomas Önskog, Christian Franzke, and Abdel Hannachi

EGU2018-9361 | Orals | NP2.4

CanStoc: a merged CanSIPS-StocSIPS macroweather forecasting system
Lenin Del Rio Amador, Nikola Jajcay, Shaun Lovejoy, and Milan Paluš

EGU2018-5757 | Posters | NP2.4

Percolation Phase Transition of Surface Air Temperature Networks under Attacks of El Niño/La Niña
Zhenghui Lu, Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, and Lijuan Hua

EGU2018-6190 | Orals | NP2.4

Detecting abrupt transitions during the Late Quaternary in southern Ethiopia using Recurrence Quantification Analyses
Hauke Krämer, Reik V. Donner, Norbert Marwan, and Martin H. Trauth

EGU2018-7611 | Posters | NP2.4

Linear dynamical modes: new variables for empirical prognostic model of ENSO variability
Alexander Feigin, Andrey Gavrilov, Aleksey Seleznev, Dmitry Mukhin, and Evgeny Loskutov

EGU2018-9521 | Orals | NP2.4 | Highlight

From Critical Fluctuations to Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon
Elena Surovyatkina and Jurgen Kurths

EGU2018-11044 | Posters | NP2.4

Data-adaptive harmonic decomposition and prediction of regional Arctic sea ice extent
Dmitri Kondrashov, Mickael Chekroun, and Michael Ghil

EGU2018-18281 | Posters | NP2.4

Complex network-based approach for identification of influential and expandable station across rainfall network
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Ugur Ozturk, Bruno Merz, and Juergen Kurths

EGU2018-18109 | Posters | NP2.4

The recurrence of unseasonable and rare flood dynamics
Dadiyorto Wendi, Norbert Marwan, and Bruno Merz

EGU2018-17778 | Posters | NP2.4

Can we expect sudden loss of Arctic sea ice due to a non-linear sea ice-albedo feedback?
Rebekka Jastamin Steene, Martin Rypdal, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Erik Bryhn Myklebust, and Kristoffer Rypdal

EGU2018-12339 | Posters | NP2.4

Vorticity and geopotential height extreme values in ERA-Interim data during boreal winters
Richard Blender, Christoph Raible, and Christian Franzke

EGU2018-1946 | Posters | NP2.4

The competitive principal modes of annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Yongwen Zhang, Jingfang Fan, Liuwen Qi, and Xiaosong Chen

EGU2018-7472 | Posters | NP2.4

Studying the roles of anthropogenic and natural forcings in leading modes of the global SST variability
Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey Gavrilov, Evgeny Loskutov, Alexander Feigin, and Juergen Kurths

EGU2018-7957 | Posters | NP2.4

Phase Synchronization of Precipitation in South America to Rossby Waves
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Niklas Boers, and Jürgen Kurths

EGU2018-8777 | Posters | NP2.4

The impacts of inhomogeneous spatial distributions of rain gauging networks highlighted with X-band radar data
Igor Paz, Abdellah Ichiba, Ilektra Skouri-Plakali, Jisun Lee, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer

EGU2018-8040 | Posters | NP2.4 | Highlight

The impact of stochastic physics on climate sensitivity
Kristian Strommen, Peter Watson, and Tim Palmer

EGU2018-8975 | Posters | NP2.4

Building Statistically Independent subspace sources of the Sea Surface Temperature Variability
Carlos Pires and Abdel Hannachi

EGU2018-9529 | Posters | NP2.4

Influence of Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature variability on rainfall in South America and its forecasting potential
Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Niklas Boers

EGU2018-11816 | Posters | NP2.4

The onset of chaos in nonautonomous dissipative dynamical systems: A low-order ocean–model case study
Stefano Pierini, Michael Ghil, and Mickael D. Chekroun

EGU2018-5764 | Posters | NP2.4

Data-adaptive harmonic analysis and stochastic modeling of sea level altimetry
Dmitri Kondrashov and Mickael Chekroun

NP3.1 – Scaling, multifractals and Nonlinear dynamics in the atmosphere, ocean and environment

EGU2018-2291 | Orals | NP3.1

Displacement Patterns in Bucharest (Romania) using PS and SBAS Approaches
Iuliana Armas, Diana Mendes, Mihaela Gheorghe, and Razvan-Gabriel Popa

EGU2018-748 | Posters | NP3.1

Wavelet Spectral Analysis of the Wind Speed and Temperature data in Germany
Ravinder Agarwal, Mouli Singarapu, Molugu Harshavardhan, Ankit Agarwal, and Maheswaran Rathinasamy

EGU2018-8709 | Orals | NP3.1

Effects of the data loss and data homogenization on the long-term properties of the observed temperature data
Suzana Blesic, Davide Zanchettin, and Angelo Rubino

EGU2018-19424 | Posters | NP3.1

Causal factors contributing to global sea level change on different timescales
Lin Piao, Hao Ye, Zuntao Fu, Gerald M Pao, Anastasios A. Tsonis, and George Sugihara

EGU2018-2670 | Posters | NP3.1

Why the growth rate of sea-ice in the Barents-Kara Sea is slower than the Labrador Sea?
Yanan Chen and Dehai Luo

EGU2018-2148 | Orals | NP3.1

Revisiting of paleoclimate recording δ18chO as passive scalar turbulence
Yongxiang Huang and Xing Jian

EGU2018-6558 | Orals | NP3.1

Evaluating multi-scale variability of disaggregated SMOS soil moisture product in Australia
Mathis Neuhauser, Sébastien Verrier, and Sylvain Mangiarotti

EGU2018-6965 | Posters | NP3.1

Identification and Extraction of Mineralization alteration information with multi-fractal filters
Jie Zhao

EGU2018-5455 | Orals | NP3.1

Transect measurements by micro-probes in hydrodynamic turbulence: a numerical study
Enrico Calzavarini, Yongxiang Huang, Francois G. Schmitt, and Lipo Wang

EGU2018-17213 | Posters | NP3.1

A Novel Hierarchical Clustering Analysis Method Based on Kullback–Leibler divergence and Application on Dalaimiao Geochemical Exploration Data
Jie Yang and Qiuming Cheng

EGU2018-16107 | Orals | NP3.1

Analysis of green roof’s water balance components using Universal Multifractal (UM) framework
Filip Stanic, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Pierre Delage, and Yu-Jun Cui

EGU2018-14844 | Posters | NP3.1

Local Singularity Analysis of Frequency-Depth Distribution of Large Earthquakes in Subduction Zones of Pacific Plates
Qiuming Cheng

EGU2018-11881 | Posters | NP3.1

Charactering mineralization related geo-processes by Fractal/multifractal analysis
Wenlei Wang, Qiuming Cheng, Jie Zhao, and Shengyuan Zhang

EGU2018-5472 | Posters | NP3.1

Empirical mode decomposition method applied to high frequency seismic data : An aid to the seismic interpretation and fault detection
Francois G. Schmitt and Virginie Gaullier

EGU2018-2188 | Posters | NP3.1

Lagrangian Statistics and Intermittency in Gulf of Mexico
Wei Zhuang, Yongxiang Huang, and Liru Lin

EGU2018-10205 | Posters | NP3.1

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of observational and reanalysis daily temperature time series over Greece
Nikolaos Kalamaras, Kostas Philippopoulos, Chris G. Tzanis, and Despina Deligiorgi

EGU2018-16451 | Posters | NP3.1 | Highlight

Multifractal structure of storm Eleanor in France and predictions of the extremes
Tim Möller, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Eric Dupont, Yelva Roustan, Pietro Bernardara, and Joachim Peinke

EGU2018-8032 | Posters | NP3.1

A study of histograms of wavelet coefficients of the Mars topography to determine its scaling properties
Thomas Kleyntssens

EGU2018-2669 | Posters | NP3.1 | Highlight

Large-scale circulation control of summer extreme hot events over China
Muyuan Li and Dehai Luo

EGU2018-3895 | Posters | NP3.1

Extracting the signal of driving force from hierarchical system by Slow Feature Analysis
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, and Peicai Yang

EGU2018-6120 | Posters | NP3.1

Forced stationary waves in the planetary geostrophic equations on the sphere
Stamen Dolaptchiev, Thomas Reitz, and Ulrich Achatz

EGU2018-7629 | Posters | NP3.1

Assessment of the quality of NCEP-2 and CFSR reanalysis daily temperature in China based on long-range correlation
Shiquan Wan, Wenping He, and Shanshan Zhao

NP4.1 – Time Series Analysis in the Geosciences - Concepts, Methods and Applications (co-organized)

EGU2018-11454 | Orals | NP4.1 | Highlight

How long is causal information being transferred from North Atlantic to Central Europe?
Milan Palus and Geli Wang

EGU2018-3814 | Posters | NP4.1

Do the Earth’s rotation velocity decelerations lead to volcanic activation?
Boris Levin, Elena Sasorova, Vjacheslav Gurianov, Aleksandr Rybin, and Vladimir Yarmoljuk

EGU2018-4968 | Posters | NP4.1

Phase space reconstruction for non-uniformly sampled noisy time series
Jaqueline Lekscha and Reik V. Donner

EGU2018-11236 | Orals | NP4.1

Vector-Valued Spectral Analysis of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability
Joanna Slawinska and Dimitrios Giannakis

EGU2018-8273 | Posters | NP4.1

Earthquake precursory events in geophysical time-series: use of the Hilbert transform for the detection of simultaneous phase-synchronisation anomalies in paired time-series.
Robin Crockett and Gavin Gillmore

EGU2018-200 | Orals | NP4.1

Adaptive Local Iterative Filtering: a promising technique for the analysis of non–stationary signals.
Mirko Piersanti, Antonio Cicone, Luca Spogli, and Massimo Materassi

EGU2018-18304 | Orals | NP4.1

Partial wavelet coherence analysis for understanding the standalone relationship between Indian Precipitation and Teleconnection patterns
Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ankit Agarwal, and Juergen Kurths

EGU2018-160 | Posters | NP4.1

Using Hilbert transform to uncover hidden periodicities in SAT time series
Dario Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller

EGU2018-18195 | Orals | NP4.1

Multitaper spectral estimation for the continuous wavelet transform
Guillaume Lenoir

EGU2018-7282 | Posters | NP4.1

Global warming and natural variability
Laura Reynaerts and Samuel Nicolay

EGU2018-18234 | Orals | NP4.1

A bivariate seasonal hidden Markov model for temperature and precipitation
Augustin Touron, Sylvie Parey, and Thi Thu Huong Hoang

EGU2018-19319 | Posters | NP4.1

Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate
Alix Rigal, Jean-Marc Azaïs, and Aurélien Ribes

EGU2018-11080 | Posters | NP4.1

A Method for Meteorological/Climatic Scenario Generation and Its Application for Hydrological Impacts Assessment Based on Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis and Hilbert-Huang Transform
Lingfeng Zhou and Yaobin Meng

EGU2018-4 | Posters | NP4.1

The applications of empirical dynamic modeling in environmental science
Chun Wei Chang, Masayuki Ushio, Fuh-Kwo Shiah, and Chih-hao Hsieh

EGU2018-9607 | Posters | NP4.1

Complex networks of climate extremes: Why Event Coincidence Analysis is preferable to Event Synchronization
Adrian Odenweller and Reik Donner

EGU2018-15613 | Posters | NP4.1

Global co-variability patterns of sea-surface temperatures and precipitation as revealed by coupled climate network analysis
Nikoo Ekhtiari, Catrin Ciemer, Catrin Kirsch, and Reik V. Donner

EGU2018-15592 | Posters | NP4.1

Exploiting the similarity of soil moisture time series based on the matrix profile
Susana Barbosa

EGU2018-12930 | Posters | NP4.1

Fractal analysis of river flow time series: a case study on Shapur river
Ali Akbar Hekmatzadeh, Ali Torabi Haghighi, Kianoosh Hosseini, and Björn Klöve

EGU2018-2915 | Posters | NP4.1

Spatial mapping of the multifractal parameters of wind time series in Switzerland
Mohamed Laib, Jean Golay, Luciano Telesca, and Mikhail Kanevski

EGU2018-4371 | Posters | NP4.1

Multifractality of the spatial distribution of seismicity in Landers (1992, Mw 7.3) and Hector Mine (1999, Mw 7.1) aftershock area (Southern California) and possible predictive signs of mainshocks
Maria-Dolors Martinez and Xavier Lana

EGU2018-4414 | Posters | NP4.1

Kolmogorov entropy: possible predictive signs of Landers (1992) and Hector Mine (1999) Southern California earthquakes
Maria-Dolors Martinez, Xavier Lana, and Sayed Amir Hosseini

EGU2018-16109 | Posters | NP4.1

Observation of intermittency-induced critical dynamics in geomagnetic field time series prior to the intense magnetic storms of March, June and December 2015
Georgios Balasis, Ioannis A. Daglis, Yannis Contoyiannis, Stelios M. Potirakis, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Nikolaos S. Melis, Omiros Giannakis, Athanassios Papaioannou, Anastasios Anastasiadis, and Charalampos Kontoes

NP5.1 – Inverse Problems, Data Assimilation and Predictability Studies in Geophysics

EGU2018-4462 | Posters | NP5.1

Ensemble Data Assimilation on Non-Conservative Adaptive Moving Mesh
Colin T. Guider, Ali Aydogdu, Chris K.R.T Jones, and Alberto Carrassi

EGU2018-2339 | Orals | NP5.1

On the use of the saddle formulation in weakly-constrained 4D-Var
Serge Gratton, Selime Gürol, Ehouarn Simon, and Philippe Toint

EGU2018-5281 | Posters | NP5.1

Chaotic dynamics and the role of covariance inflation for reduced rank Kalman filters with model error
Colin Grudzien, Alberto Carrassi, and Marc Bocquet

EGU2018-55 | Orals | NP5.1 | Highlight

The Dynamic Likelihood Filtering Approach
Juan Restrepo

EGU2018-3750 | Orals | NP5.1

Kernel embedding of maps for Bayesian inference: The variational mapping particle filter
Manual Pulido and Peter Jan van Leeuwen

EGU2018-8339 | Posters | NP5.1

An iterative ensemble Kalman filter in presence of additive model error
Marc Bocquet, Pavel Sakov, and Jean-Matthieu Haussaire

EGU2018-7139 | Orals | NP5.1

Localisation in particle filters: methods comparison and improvements
Alban Farchi and Marc Bocquet

EGU2018-18097 | Posters | NP5.1

Particle filters for high-dimensional non-linear systems: a revised implicit equal-weights particle filter
Javier Amezcua, Jacob Skauvold, and Peter Jan van Leeuwen

EGU2018-16722 | Posters | NP5.1

Parameter and state estimation with ensemble Kalman filter based algorithms for convective scale applications
Yvonne Ruckstuhl and Tijana Janjic

EGU2018-14881 | Orals | NP5.1

Observability and analyses of volcanic ash emissions and their dispersion by two ensemble-based four-dimensional assimilation approaches applying remote sensing data
Anne Caroline Lange, Philipp Franke, and Hendrik Elbern

EGU2018-10705 | Posters | NP5.1

An Equilibrium Between Observational Gain and Chaotic Loss of Information in Data Assimilation Cycles
Zoltan Toth, Jie Feng, and Malaquias Pena

EGU2018-11533 | Orals | NP5.1

Grain growth prediction and its uncertainty based on multi-phase-field model with 4DVar and second-order adjoint method
Shin-ichi Ito, Hiromichi Nagao, Tadashi Kasuya, and Junya Inoue

EGU2018-14417 | Posters | NP5.1

Parameter estimation of turbulent closure schemes in marine circulation models using Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation method: a proof-of-concept
Clement Aldebert, Philippe Fraunie, Pierre Garreau, Ivane Pairaud, and Jean-Luc Devenon

EGU2018-15373 | Orals | NP5.1

Conservation laws and ensemble Kalman filter algorithms
Tijana Janjic, Yuefei Zeng, and Yvonne Ruckstuhl

EGU2018-15386 | Posters | NP5.1

Variational data assimilation algorithms at the splitting stages of an atmospheric chemistry transport and transformation model
Alexey Penenko, Vladimir Penenko, Elena Tsvetova, and Zhadyra Mukatova

EGU2018-3873 | Orals | NP5.1

Adaptive covariance inflation in the EnKF by Gaussian scale mixtures
Patrick Raanes, Marc Bocquet, and Alberto Carrassi

EGU2018-371 | Orals | NP5.1 | Highlight

Finite or infinite predictability horizon?
Tsz Yan Leung, Theodore G. Shepherd, Sebastian Reich, and Martin Leutbecher

EGU2018-9275 | Posters | NP5.1

Numerical solution of the inverse source problems for the chemical transformation models with image-type measurement data
Alexey Penenko, Zhadyra Mukatova, and Ann Blem

EGU2018-9192 | Posters | NP5.1

Variational and Ensemble-based Kalman smoothing for geophysical data assimilation
Tuomo Kauranne and Martin Gunia

EGU2018-2210 | Orals | NP5.1

Stochastically-perturbed bred vectors
Georg Gottwald and Brent Giggins

EGU2018-4411 | Orals | NP5.1

A new method for identifying parameter sensitivity in atmosphere and ocean model
Qiang Wang, Youmin Tang, and Henk A. Dijkstra

EGU2018-16309 | Posters | NP5.1

Rapid observation system experiments for the observation impact in the ensemble space
Tobias Sebastian Finn, Gernot Geppert, and Felix Ament

EGU2018-9169 | Orals | NP5.1

Liouville solutions for low complexity systems: characterization of PDF evolutions
Alejandro Hermoso and Victor Homar

EGU2018-12687 | Posters | NP5.1

Model Uncertainty Quantification for Data Assimilation in partially observed multi-scale systems
Sahani Pathiraja and Peter Jan Van Leeuwen

EGU2018-15902 | Posters | NP5.1

Compensation of inaccurate meteorological data in source term determination problem using Bayesian methods
Ondřej Tichý, Václav Šmídl, Miroslav Hýža, Kateřina Šindelářová, Lukáš Ulrych, and Alkomiet Belal

EGU2018-2906 | Posters | NP5.1

Assimilation of Northwestern Tropical Pacific moored velocity data in a regional ocean modeling: Low frequency capabilities
Danian Liu, Yeqiang Shu, Fenghua Zhou, Qiang Xie, Jiang Zhu, and Dongxiao Wang

EGU2018-6298 | Posters | NP5.1

An air pollution assimilation system using a modified ensemble Kalman filter with error inflation and bias correction
Huangjian Wu and Xiao Tang

EGU2018-7174 | Posters | NP5.1

Assessing the convergence of transdimensional inversion used for subsurface geometry reconstruction
Márk Somogyvári, Michael Kühn, and Sebastian Reich

EGU2018-6249 | Posters | NP5.1

Treating sample covariances for use in strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation
Polly Smith, Amos Lawless, and Nancy Nichols

EGU2018-19271 | Posters | NP5.1

Tomographic iterative reconstruction of a passive scalar in a 3D turbulent flow
Ignacio Pisso, Arve Kylling, Massimo Cassiani, Hamidreza Ardeshiri, Soon-Young Park, Kerstin Stebel, Anna Solvejg Dinger, Norbert Schmidbauer, and Andreas Stohl

EGU2018-5985 | Posters | NP5.1

Using oceanic signatures in the Earth's magnetic field to constrain simulations of the global ocean circulation
Christopher Irrgang, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, and Maik Thomas

EGU2018-11621 | Posters | NP5.1

Determining Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height with Numerical Differentiation Method Using Bending Angle Data from COSMIC
Yan Shen, Xiang Jie, and Du Huadong

EGU2018-5651 | Posters | NP5.1

Evaluation of oceanic surface observation for reproducing the upper ocean structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM
Fei Zheng, Hao Luo, and Jiang Zhu

EGU2018-15419 | Posters | NP5.1

Importance of interpolation and coincidence errors in data fusion
Simone Ceccherini, Bruno Carli, Cecilia Tirelli, Nicola Zoppetti, Samuele Del Bianco, Ugo Cortesi, Jukka Kujanpää, and Rossana Dragani

EGU2018-15704 | Posters | NP5.1

Uncertainty quantification for image-based motion estimation in bioirrigated marine sediments
Donal Harkin, Naratip Santitissadeekorn, Christof Meile, Erik Bollt, and George Waldbusser

EGU2018-5154 | Posters | NP5.1

An unexpected uniqueness result for tomography-assisted potential-field inversion
Karl Fabian and Lennart de Groot

EGU2018-5653 | Posters | NP5.1

Mining air temperature records employing the fractal-multifractal method
Carlos E. Puente, Mahesh L. Maskey, and Bellie Sivakumar

EGU2018-5555 | Posters | NP5.1

SPUX: Scalable high performance uncertainty quantification framework for stochastic models in environmental data sciences
Jonas Šukys, Mira Kattwinkel, and Peter Reichert

EGU2018-3238 | Posters | NP5.1

Lyapunov instability study of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models
Lesley De Cruz, Sebastian Schubert, Jonathan Demaeyer, Valerio Lucarini, and Stéphane Vannitsem

EGU2018-373 | Posters | NP5.1

Impacts of intitial SSS errors on the AMOC decadal predictability problem
Victor Estella Perez, Florian Sévellec, and Bablu Sinha

EGU2018-1705 | Posters | NP5.1

An El Nino-Southern Oscillation forecast system formulated by an intermediate coupled model and its nonlinear forcing singular vector
Lingjiang Tao and Wansuo Duan

EGU2018-1706 | Posters | NP5.1

“Summer Predictability Barrier” of the Indian Ocean Dipole Events and Its Error Growth Dynamics
Da Liu, Wansuo Duan, Rong Feng, and Youmin Tang

EGU2018-4107 | Posters | NP5.1

How do initial perturbation amplitudes and ensemble sizes influence ensemble forecast skill?
Wansuo Duan and Ye Wang

EGU2018-18833 | Posters | NP5.1

Estimating the predictability limit of tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific using observational data
Quanjia Zhong, Lifeng Zhang, Jianping Li, Ruiqiang Ding, and Jie Feng

EGU2018-4249 | Posters | NP5.1

Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans
xuan li and ruiqiang ding

EGU2018-5594 | Posters | NP5.1

The nonlinear optimal triggering perturbation of the Kuroshio large meander and its evolution based on a regional ocean model
Xia Liu

EGU2018-5900 | Posters | NP5.1

Determining the spectrum of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents in a multidimensional chaotic system
Ruiqiang Ding, Jianping Li, and Baosheng Li

EGU2018-5945 | Posters | NP5.1

An improved method for nonlinear parameter estimation: A case study of the Rössler model
Wenping He and Shiquan Wan

EGU2018-5961 | Posters | NP5.1

A Study on the Optimal Precursor triggering Kuroshio Intrusion in the South China Sea
Peng Liang

NP5.3 – Advances in statistical post-processing for deterministic and ensemble forecasts (co-organized)

EGU2018-4397 | Posters | NP5.3

Analog-Based Postprocessing of Navigation-Related Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts
Stephan Hemri and Bastian Klein

EGU2018-10656 | Orals | NP5.3 | Highlight

A Bayesian Approach to Statistical Post-Processing
Roman Krzysztofowicz, Zoltan Toth, Mark Antolik, Geary Layne, Melissa Petty, Malaquias Pena, and Yi Wang

EGU2018-4865 | Orals | NP5.3

A Bayesian framework based on the ensemble Kalman filter for flow-dependent integration of weather radar extrapolation nowcasts and NWP precipitation fields
Daniele Nerini, Urs Germann, and Loris Foresti

EGU2018-4301 | Posters | NP5.3

Aspects of post-processing of long-range forecasts
Bert Van Schaeybroeck and Stéphane Vannitsem

EGU2018-13265 | Orals | NP5.3

Post-processing of spatial extremes
Petra Friederichs, Sabrina Wahl, and Sebastian Buschow

EGU2018-6955 | Posters | NP5.3

Evaluation of the statistical-dynamical seasonal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation
André Düsterhus, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr

EGU2018-9044 | Posters | NP5.3

Towards a framework for statistical evaluation of forecast performance under serial dependence
Jochen Broecker

EGU2018-15422 | Orals | NP5.3

Statistical post-processing and multivariate structuring of high-resolution ensemble precipitation forecasts
Chiem van Straaten, Kirien Whan, and Maurice Schmeits

EGU2018-14836 | Posters | NP5.3

Efficient spatial interpolation of point MOS forecasts
Marko Laine, Jussi Ylhäisi, Leila Hieta, and Juha Kilpinen

EGU2018-1473 | Orals | NP5.3

Probabilistic Forecasting of Thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps
Thorsten Simon, Peter Fabsic, Georg. J. Mayr, Nikolaus Umlauf, and Achim Zeileis

EGU2018-8600 | Orals | NP5.3

Verification of probabilistic forecasts: comparing proper scoring rules
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir and Nina Schuhen

EGU2018-18406 | Posters | NP5.3

Performance of various post-processing bias correction methods for climate change impact studies
Patrick Laux, Manuel Lorenz, Jan Bliefernicht, Babacar Faye, Heidi Webber, Diarra Dieng, Oluwafèmi Adeyeri, and Harald Kunstmann

EGU2018-7015 | Posters | NP5.3

Probabilistic forecasts of snow making conditions
Peter Graber, Georg Mayr, and Manuel Gebetsberger

EGU2018-9608 | Posters | NP5.3

Bias Correction of Global Climate Models' data within the framework of HAPPI project
Fahad Saeed, Tim Trautmann, Stefan Lange, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

EGU2018-11872 | Posters | NP5.3

Robust inference methods for post-processing multiple lead-time precipitation forecasts
David Robertson, Durgalal Shrestha, James Bennett, and Qj Wang

EGU2018-12281 | Posters | NP5.3

Simultaneous Ensemble Post-Processing for Multiple Seasons and Lead Times with GAMLSS
Markus Dabernig, Georg J. Mayr, Jakob W. Messner, Thorsten Simon, and Achim Zeileis

EGU2018-1224 | Posters | NP5.3

Quantifying the skill in probabilistic forecast for the sea breeze deriving from large-scale variables
Carlo Cafaro, Thomas Frame, John Methven, Nigel Roberts, and Jochen Broecker

EGU2018-1615 | Posters | NP5.3

The principals of ocean temperature forecasting
Claudio Heinrich, Alex Lenkoski, and Thordis Thorarinsdottir

EGU2018-2613 | Posters | NP5.3

Hourly Wind Gust Forecast Verification over Canada
Chad Shouquan Cheng

EGU2018-3563 | Posters | NP5.3

Using KDE to estimate probability of precipitation from EPS simulations, a study case.
Lissette Guzmán and Vagner Anabor

EGU2018-6773 | Posters | NP5.3

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa
Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Tilmann Gneiting, Andreas H. Fink, and Andreas Schlueter