Content:

ITS – Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions

ITS1.1/ERE7.1 – Multi-scale water-energy-land nexus planning to manage socio-economic, climatic, and technological change

EGU2020-15192 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1 | Highlight

Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach

Jonathan Doelman, Tom Kram, Benjamin Bodirsky, Isabelle Weindle, and Elke Stehfest

The human population has substantially grown and become wealthier over the last decades. These developments have led to major increases in the use of key natural resources such as food, energy and water causing increased pressure on the environment throughout the world. As these trends are projected to continue into the foreseeable future, a crucial question is how the provision of resources as well as the quality of the environment can be managed sustainably.

Environmental quality and resource provision are intricately linked. For example, food production depends on availability of water, land suitable for agriculture, and favourable climatic circumstances. In turn, food production causes climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, and affects biodiversity through conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and through the effects of excessive fertilizer and use of pesticides. There are many examples of the complex interlinkages between different production systems and environmental issues. To handle this complexity the nexus concept has been introduced which recognizes that different sectors are inherently interconnected and must be investigated in an integrated, holistic manner.

Until now, the nexus literature predominantly exists of local studies or qualitative descriptions. This study present the first qualitative, multi-model nexus study at the global scale, based on scenarios simultaneously developed with the MAgPIE land use model and the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The goal is to quantify synergies and trade-offs between different sectors of the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Each scenario is designed to substantially improve one of the nexus sectors water, land, energy, food or climate. A number of indicators that capture important aspects of both the nexus sectors and related SDGs is selected to assess whether these scenarios provide synergies or trade-offs with other nexus sectors, and to quantify the effects. Additionally a scenario is developed that aims to optimize policy action across nexus sectors providing an example of a holistic approach that achieves multiple sustainable development goals.

The results of this study highlight many synergies and trade-offs. For example, an important trade-off exists between climate change policy and food security targets: large-scale implementation of bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets negatively impacts food security. An interesting synergy exists between the food, water and climate sectors: promoting healthy diets reduces water use, improves water quality and increases the uptake of carbon by forests.

How to cite: Doelman, J., Kram, T., Bodirsky, B., Weindle, I., and Stehfest, E.: Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-15192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15192, 2020.

EGU2020-20646 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1 | Highlight

Natural capital, ecosystem services, and conservation – Maps to sustain both nature and humanity

Pamela Collins, Rachel Neugarten, Becky Chaplin-Kramer, Dave Hole, and Steve Polasky

Ecosystems around the world support both biodiversity and human well-being, providing essential goods and services including food, fiber, building materials, moisture/temperature regulation, carbon sequestration, disaster risk reduction, and spiritual/cultural meaning. While we all depend on these benefits to survive and thrive, they are especially critical to the world’s most vulnerable people. And as populations and economies grow and the climate continues to change, humanity may find itself needing nature’s benefits in new and unexpected ways.

Mapping ecosystem service provision globally along with biodiversity is essential to effective, just, and lasting conservation planning and prioritization. Identifying global ecosystem service hotspots is key to enabling multi-scale water-energy-land nexus planning for managing socio-economic, climatic, and technological change. This presentation will showcase the latest results of a first-of-its-kind effort to collect the best available spatial datasets of global ecosystem service provision and synthesize them into a common “critical natural capital” framework that highlights global ecosystem service “hotspots” for both humanity overall and the world’s most vulnerable people in particular. Drawn from a wide range of observational and modeling studies conducted by physical and social scientists around the world, this innovative synthesis represents the first attempt to create an integrated spatial map of all that we know about humanity’s dependence on nature, on land and at sea.

Biodiversity is intimately linked to ecosystem services, since intact ecosystems with diverse and abundant native flora and fauna have the greatest ability to provide these irreplaceable services to humanity. Thus, conserving nature for biodiversity and conserving nature for human well-being are two sides of the same coin. This presentation will explore how to integrate these maps of the world’s critical natural capital into the global conservation conversation. These maps will enable investors and policymakers at the global and national scales to explore the potential consequences to humanity of diverse area-based conservation strategies, providing crucial context for the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and related conversations.

Sustainable use and management of land and sea, in line with the vision outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals, is essential to preserving both biodiversity and humanity’s ability to thrive on this planet. The upcoming negotiation of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework represents a key opportunity to set the planet on a path to more strategic and effective management of the terrestrial and marine realms, and our maps can inform decision-making around the size and spatial distribution of protected areas and other effective conservation measures. Society can only manage what it can monitor, and with the clearer vision of the most important places for both biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision these maps provide, humanity will be well-poised to start the next decade off on the right foot.

How to cite: Collins, P., Neugarten, R., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Hole, D., and Polasky, S.: Natural capital, ecosystem services, and conservation – Maps to sustain both nature and humanity, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20646, 2020.

EGU2020-4106 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Downscaling flows in the water-food-energy Nexus

Stefan C. Dekker, Maria J. Santos, Hanneke Van 'tVeen, and Detlef P. van Vuuren

The variabilities in both time and space of the flows between the components of the water-food-energy are dependent on many driving factors. In this study we use global scenarios from the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE to analyse future changes in flows in the water, food and energy nexus. With Sankey diagrams we show how flows between energy and food production will likely increase by 60% and water consumption by 20% in 2050 by using a reference scenario. The inclusion of climate action policies, combined with dietary changes, increased yield efficiency and food waste reduction leads to similar resources uses of water and land, and much lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2010.

We found that based on data, spatial scales are an important but complicating factor in nexus analysis. This is because different resources have their own physical and spatial scale characteristics within the nexus. To examine the effect of scaling on future nexus development, we analyse how local decisions and local resource availability of the use of biomass as energy source impacts other resources. Biomass use potentially impacts forest systems and might compete with land for food and water resources within the nexus. The use of biomass and more specifically charcoal will likely further increase mainly due to urbanization in developing countries. We have examined how different shared socio economic pathway (SSP) scenarios result in (i) future demand for biomass for energy and compare those to measured (with remote sensing) and modelled net primary productivity values of forested systems, (ii) estimate the amount of land needed for biomass production that might compete with food production, and (iii) estimate the water amount needed to produce biomass to meet the different biomass demands. We found that current productivity of non-protected forests is globally higher than the demand, but regionally it closely meets the demand for tropical areas in Central America and Africa. This while tropical areas in South America and Indonesia show decreasing biomass demands for energy for the SSP1-SSP3 scenarios. From this analysis we clearly see differences at regional scales in the competition between the resources land and water are found. 

We conclude that a nexus framework analysis which estimates flows between the different components across scales is fundamental to understand system sustainability. Such approach benefits from combining global scenarios of Integrated Assessment models with local conditions to understand the sustainability in the nexus in time and space.

How to cite: Dekker, S. C., Santos, M. J., Van 'tVeen, H., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Downscaling flows in the water-food-energy Nexus , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4106, 2020.

The aim of this study is to develop a Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus platform based on boundaries of resources and system dynamics modeling. For example, water-shed indicates river basin, aquifer or water supply area regarded as non-tradable boundary. However food-shed indicates both food production and consumption area in addition to food trade. Energy-shed is mainly defined by electricity distribution. Therefore, the boundary of each resource is different and we link water, energy, and food boundaries such as resource-sheds in the FEW Nexus.  As a case study, we analyze the interlinkage among national, regional, and local sustainability in terms of resource management and socio-economic-environmental impacts in Japan. First, we analyze the local characteristics of FEW Nexus as a prefecture level using the FEW indices, and assess the potential issues under future industrialization or economic growth situations. Second, we combine the local FEW Nexus into regional platform, for example, the Kansai regional Nexus including Osaka, Kyoto, Shiga, Hyogo, Nara, and Wakayama prefecutures. Finally, we adpat the boundary of resource-sheds into the regional Nexus and assess the changes in local resource management on regional resource sustainability using system dynamics modeling. Thus, we assess the impacts of changes about water, energy, and food management in each prefecture on regional water and energy security in Kansai region. This study could contribute to develop a common framework for scientists and policy-makers to evaluate sustainable resource management with multi-scale perspective, thus it has the potential to achieve integrated water, energy and food security.

How to cite: Lee, S., Taniguchi, M., and Masuhara, N.: Multi-scale Food- Energy-Water Nexus to link national, regional and local sustainability based on resource-sheds and system dynamics modeling: A Case study of Japan, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12119, 2020.

The Indus Basin, a densely irrigated area home to about 300-million people, has expected growing demands for water, energy and food in the coming decades.  With no abundant surface water left in the basin and accelerating use of groundwater, long-term strategic and integrated management of water and its interlinked sectors (water-energy-land) is fundamental for the sustainable development of the region. Cooperation among riparian countries is an alternative to current situation that could help achieving water-energy-land related Sustainable Development Goals, maximizing socio-environmental benefits and minimizing costs. We show a scenario-based analysis using numerical models (The Nexus Solution Tool) where we link local issues and policies to the Sustainable Development Goals, showing magnitude and geographical location of required investments to meet SDG and the associated impacts. Finally, we discuss the barriers to cross-border cooperation and explore cases of partial cooperation, which confirms significant environmental and economic benefits.

How to cite: Vinca, A., Parkinson, S., and Riahi, K.: Benefits of Cross-Border Cooperation for Achieving Water-Energy-Land Sustainable Development Goals in the Indus Basin, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13296, 2020.

EGU2020-20100 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Balancing Local and Global Sustainability of Urban Water Supply Systems with Water Security and Resilience Goals

Elisabeth Krueger, Dietrich Borchardt, James Jawitz, and Suresh Rao

The sustainability of urban water systems is commonly analyzed based on local characteristics, such as the protection of urban watersheds or the existence of nature-based solutions for stormwater drainage. Water embedded in food and other goods consumed within cities, or the pollution caused by their production is generally not assessed as part of urban water system sustainability. However, indirect feedbacks can produce negative impacts (e.g., drought and water quality impairments) resulting from these water and ecological footprints. We therefore suggest that, within the context of nexus thinking, embedded water and ecosystem impacts should be part of urban water governance considerations.

We quantify the local and global sustainability of urban water supply systems (UWSS) based on the performance of local sustainable governance and the size of global water and ecological footprints. Building on prior work on UWSS security and resilience, we develop a new framework that integrates security, resilience, and sustainability to investigate trade-offs between these three distinct and inter-related dimensions. Security refers to the level of services, resilience is the system’s ability to respond to and recover from shocks, and sustainability refers to the long-term viability of system services. Security and resilience are both relevant at local scale (city and surroundings), while for sustainability cross-scale and -sectoral feedbacks are important. We apply the new framework to seven cities selected from diverse hydro-climatic and socio-economic settings on four continents. We find that UWSS security, resilience, and local sustainability coevolve, while global sustainability correlates negatively with security. Approaching these interdependent goals requires governance strategies that balance the three dimensions within desirable and viable operating spaces. Cities outside these boundaries risk system failure in the short-term, due to lack of security and resilience, or face long-term consequences of unsustainable governance strategies. Our findings have strong implications for policy-making, strategic management, and for designing systems to operate sustainably at local and global scales, and across sectors.

The corresponding article was accepted for publication in Environmental Research Letters on Jan. 15, 2020.

How to cite: Krueger, E., Borchardt, D., Jawitz, J., and Rao, S.: Balancing Local and Global Sustainability of Urban Water Supply Systems with Water Security and Resilience Goals, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20100, 2020.

Based on the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – Targets - Indicators 2016-2030, the objective of this paper is to emphasize on water resources as a cross-cutting issue and at the center of sustainable development, presenting a specific analysis of the importance of a better knowledge of the hydrology - hydrometrics of country major and local basins as fundamental information for water resources sustainable management. This implies the review of specific indicators related to the knowledge at town level of water resources assessment and availability, fundamental to life, health, food security, energy, the environment, and human well-being.

There are limitations including the lack of accurate and complete data. Local sub-national variation in water resources and water withdrawal could be considerable, as at the level of local or individual river basins, and the lack of account of seasonal variations in water resources. Regional values may mask huge differences within regions and also within countries where people live in areas of serious water scarcity, although each country could have enough renewable water resources overall.

In order to ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, and to implement integrated water resources management at all levels (targets 6.4 and 6.5 of the SDGs), a fundamental baseline is the assessment of available and exploitable water resources at local level, as well as its development feasibility. 

Data on water resources availability is a key indicator that should be approached at local level, since in a majority of countries, i) most local and rural communities and towns do not count with the information regarding their water resources, ii) local information will contribute to improve the accuracy of information of renewable water resources at country level, iii) rural settlements are in general the most vulnerable, lacking services of drinking water and irrigation for food security, and iv) small variations on the estimations of available water resources would represent social, environmental and economic consequences on water resources management and sustainable development planning.

Based on the analysis of the ecohydrology of two case studies, it is demonstrated that there cannot be effective integrated water resources management (IWRM) at town level if there is a lack of information on water resources availability.

Considering the limitations described in regard to goals-targets-indicators of sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, and the implementation of integrated water resources management, it is indispensable to count with adequate and reliable local hydrological - hydrometric data and monitoring systems that would contribute to partially control these limitations, assessing available water supplies for community planning.

In reference to Agenda 2030, countries must implement a complementary indicator, as the percentage of the population whose water sources are monitored by means of adequate measuring methods, providing information on surface water and ground water regimes that influence water availability.

How to cite: Castanier, H.: Assessment of Local Water Resources for Sustainable Development Goals, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-899, 2020.

More than half of the world’s population are urban dwellers, and this percentage is on the rise. Therefore, understanding the links between water, energy, and food requirements of cities plays a critical role in determining global resource consumption. Adelaide is a mid-size, coastal Australian city in Australia with a population of almost 1.3 million inhabitants. With its plentiful access to wind and solar energy, the Adelaide region has one of the highest rates of renewable energy production in the world, and access to additional, conventional energies supplies from other parts of the Australian network. However, the water supplies in this region are theoretically limited, as groundwater depletion is already occurring in the food production areas surrounding the city, and municipal water supplies rely heavily on the fully allocated Murray River system. Therefore, optimization of the food, energy and water requirements of the city provides an opportunity for optimal use of valuable resources. Quantification of these industries was not trivial and provided data availability and comparison challenges.  Lessons learned on a quantitative example of the water-energy-food nexus at city scale are presented.

How to cite: Shanafield, M., Batelaan, O., and Subramani, S.: Characterising and quantifying links between water, energy, and food consumption in a water-poor, energy-rich city; Adelaide, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20461, 2020.

There is increasing interest in the global water-energy-food (WEF) system and potential future system trajectories under global change, especially considering growing concerns over resource exploitation and sustainability. Previous studies investigating different aspects of this system have a number of shortcomings including not analysing all nexus sectors and/or not accounting for possible feedback between sectors, meaning it is difficult to identify system-wide tradeoffs, and makes comparison difficult. A global analysis of the WEF system linked to changes in potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth is presented, integrating the four sectors (water-energy-food-GDP) into a coherent analysis and modelling framework. GDP was included as previous related work demonstrates a link between GDP and each WEF sector. A system dynamics modelling approach quantifies previously qualitative descriptions of the global WEF-GDP system, while a Monte-Carlo sampling approach is adopted to characterise variability in resource use and growth at the global level. Correlative and causal analysis show links of varying strength between sectors. For example, the GDP-electricity consumption sectors are strongly correlated while food production and electricity consumption are weakly correlated. Causal analysis reveals that ‘correlation does not imply causation’. There are noticeable asymmetries in causality between certain sectors. Historical WEF-GDP values are well recreated with the exception of electricity production/consumption. Future scenarios were assessed using seven GDP growth estimates to 2100. Water withdrawals in 2100 and food production in 2050 are close to other literature estimations arrived at using very different means. Results suggest that humanity risks exceeding the ‘safe operating space’ for water withdrawal. Reducing water withdrawal while maintaining or increasing food production is critical, and should be decoupled from economic growth. Electricity production/consumption is also expected to grow, with the strength of growth linked to GDP pathways. Climate impacts of the production and consumption will depend greatly on the fuel source for the generation of power. This work provides a quantitative modelling framework to previously qualitative descriptions of the WEF-GDP system, offering a platform on which to build.

How to cite: Masia, S. and Susnik, J.: Data-driven modelling of potential trajectories of the global water-energy-food nexus system, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7296, 2020.

EGU2020-18681 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1 | Highlight

Exploration of the Dynamics in the Swedish Water-Energy-Land-Food-Climate Nexus: Lessons from Combining Policy Analysis and System Dynamics Modeling

Malgorzata Blicharska, Janez Susnik, Sara Masia, Lotte van den Heuvel, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein

EGU2020-4238 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Water-related synergists and antagonists in the SDGnexus Network

Björn Weeser and Lutz Breuer

Funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) as a Higher Education Excellence in Development Cooperation (exceed), the SDGnexus Network is a global community of universities, research centers and stakeholders committed to promoting the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development. Supported for five years starting in 2020, the network will establish a common research framework related to the inter-linkages, trade-offs, and synergies between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As part of this endeavor, we will focus on water-related SDGs and how they interact, support, and counteract with other SDGs. We will particularly investigate the interaction between SDGs related to land use, food provision, and energy production.

Consisting of seven university core partners with four of them in Latin America (two each in Ecuador and Columbia) and three in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan), the network liaise research between countries with typical development challenges such as the resource curse or the middle-income trap.

Both regions have water, energy, and food interrelated concerns. Hydropower generation upstream can have, for example, adverse effects on the agricultural water use downstream. The timing of water use throughout the year is a potential conflict in Central Asia, such as in the Syr Darja and Amur Darja basins that discharge into the Aral Sea. The energy demand in winter contradicts the agricultural crop water requirement in summer. In the Amazon basin deforestation likely changes the large-scale water cycle and, therefore, the local to regional the rainfall patterns through a modified moisture recycling. Such changes could result in less rainfall on the eastern side of the Andes and consequently diminishes discharge into the Amazon basin from the Andean headwaters.

Climate change will further increase the pressure on water resources. The glacier-fed headwaters in the Tian Shan mountain in Asia and the Andes systems are suspected of undergoing dramatic changes in the near future. While an increased runoff in summer due to the rapid melting of the glaciers is expected initially, runoff will decrease due to the loss of the glacier as an intermediate water reservoir in the long term.

Overall, the SDGnexus network will build bridges between water-related science, education, as well as development. It supports the identification of potential areas of intervention for decisionmakers, and reduce the research gap in inter-linkages between SDG goals and targets. Furthermore, the network aims at developing alternative land use options under climate change conditions to sustain environmental flows in both world regions.

 

How to cite: Weeser, B. and Breuer, L.: Water-related synergists and antagonists in the SDGnexus Network , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4238, 2020.

EGU2020-4576 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Effects of urbanization on food-energy-water systems in mega-urban regions: a case study of the Bohai MUR, China

Caiyun Deng, Hongrui Wang, Shuxin Gong, Jie Zhang, Bo Yang, and Ziyang Zhao

The security of food-energy-water systems (FEW systems) is an issue of worldwide concern, especially in mega-urban regions (MURs) with high-density populations, industries and carbon emissions. To better understand the hidden linkages between urbanization and FEW systems, the pressure on FEW systems is quantified in a typical rapid urbanizing region—the Bohai MUR. The correlation between urbanization indicators and the pressure on FEW systems is analyzed and the mechanism of the impact of urbanization on FEW systems is further investigated. Results show that approximately 23% of croplands is lost, 61% of which is converted to construction lands and the urban areas expand by 132.2% in the Bohai MUR during 1980-2015. The pressure on FEW systems has an upward trend with the stress index of the pressure on FEW systems (FEW_SI) exhibiting ranging from 80.49 to 134.82% and dominant pressure consisting of that has converted from water system pressure to energy system pressure since 2004. The FEW_SI in the Bohai MUR is enhanced with cropland loss and the increase in urbanization indicators. Additionally, land use, populations, incomes, policies and innovation are the main ways urbanization impacted FEW systems in MURs. This study enhances our understanding of the pressure variation on FEW systems in MURs and the effects of urbanization on FEW systems, which helps stakeholders to enhance the resilience of FEW systems and promote sustainable regional development.

Keywords: urbanization, food-energy-water system pressure, linkages, MURs

How to cite: Deng, C., Wang, H., Gong, S., Zhang, J., Yang, B., and Zhao, Z.: Effects of urbanization on food-energy-water systems in mega-urban regions: a case study of the Bohai MUR, China, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4576, 2020.

EGU2020-9965 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

A Systematic Review of Linkages and Trends in Water-Food-Energy/Urban Nexus Research

Tailin Huang, Min-Che Hu, and I-Chun Tsai

The water-food-energy (WFE) nexus are intertwined with urbanization, land use, and population growth and is rapidly expanding in scholarly literature and research projects as a novel way to address complex resource and development challenges. The nexus-related research aims to identify tradeoffs and synergies of water, energy, and food systems, internalize mutual impacts between the nexus and the urban systems, and guide the development of sustainable solutions. However, while the WFE nexus offers a promising conceptual approach, limited research focuses on systematically mapping the water, food, and energy interlinkages and evaluate the research trends and issues that we are facing in this field.
Water, food, and energy are the basis for human livelihoods and economic activities; they are also closely interrelated: Agriculture, forestry, and the energy sector simultaneously depend heavily on and affect water resources. Energy is essential for water management, but also agricultural production, processing, and marketing. Land is needed for the production of food, fodder, and renewable energy, as well as for water resource protection. Demographic trends – such as population growth, progressive urbanization, and globalization, changing lifestyles and consumer habits – are increasing pressure on already limited natural resources. A sustainable urban system requires the achievement of mitigating human impact on natural ecosystems while fulfilling our need for development.
Previous studies have discussed the research trends and nexus assessment tools (e.g., Endo et al. 2015;2017). Despite the increasing use of the WFE nexus in scholarly literature and research projects, few studies have systematically reviewed the broad range of linkages in the body of nexus literature. There is a need for a comprehensive review of, and critical reflection on, existing nexus linkages and issues to gain the big picture, improve clarity, and promote further advances in research for WFE nexus.
This paper reviews current WFE nexus linkages and issues to promote further development of tools and methods that align with nexus thinking and address the complexity of multi-sectoral resource interactions. As a conceptual framework, the nexus approach leverages an understanding of WEF linkages to promote coherence in policy-making and enhance sustainability. A summary of the most frequently used nexus linkages, issues, and keywords obtained from journal articles provides the clues to discover the current research emphases. Findings will provide a better understanding of trends in this line of research, which will serve as a useful reference for future studies.

How to cite: Huang, T., Hu, M.-C., and Tsai, I.-C.: A Systematic Review of Linkages and Trends in Water-Food-Energy/Urban Nexus Research, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-9965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9965, 2020.

Mountains play an essential role in storing water and providing it to downstream regions and are therefore commonly referred to as ‘water towers of the world’. In particular, they provide runoff in the lowlands’ low flow season by contributing snow- and glacier melt. Mountain runoff thus plays an important role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular regarding water, food, and energy. However, the mountains’ water provision service is strongly challenged by climate change leading to the retreat and volume loss of glaciers, rising snow lines, and changes in precipitation amount and variability. One potential strategy for addressing these changes is the construction of new water reservoirs or the adjustment of current reservoir management strategies. These strategies need to take account of various, eventually competing water uses rooted in different sectors relevant at different scales and governments with different economic interests.

We investigate the governance process related to the planning of a future reservoir in one of the most important water towers of the world, the European Alps. We ask why and how governance processes can lead to a coordination gap between upstream reservoir planning and the development of strategies allowing for the alleviation of downstream water shortage. We show on a case study in the Swiss Alps, that downstream water deficits could potentially be covered through a newly constructed upstream reservoir if management strategies were flexible enough. However, additional water uses than hydropower were not taken into account in the governance processes leading to the provision of a concession for the new reservoir. Instead, the decision-making within a participative process was influenced by (a) a lack of knowledge and data, (b) an interest to increase renewable energy production, (c) a focus on environmental agreements, and (d) economic interests. We conclude that upstream and downstream water demands need to be balanced in governance processes. Such balancing can be achieved by clarifying process design and by evaluating who can lead such complex processes with actors from different governments and sectors under the umbrella of non-uniform and incoherent institutions.

How to cite: Kellner, E. and Brunner, M. I.: Reservoirs in world’s water towers: Need for appropriate governance processes to reach Sustainable Development Goals, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11004, 2020.

EGU2020-11142 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

An Input-Output Approach to Thailand's Energy Transition: Effects on the Land, Water and Food

Ipsita Kumar, Kuishuang Feng, Varaprasad Bandaru, and Laixiang Sun

Population and economic growth have increased demand for food, energy, and other resources. At the same time, there is competition from those sectors on limited water and land resources. Thailand faces similar challenges as they transition towards energy independence by increasing renewable energy production for energy security, and to become future exporters of energy. Thailand implemented the Alternative Energy Development Policy (AEDP) in 2012, which led to shifting land use from rice for food to sugarcane for energy production, especially from crop residue. Currently, crop residue use for electricity production is well below its potential. In 2017, 1.06% and 4.44% of total potential of paddy husk and sugarcane bagasse respectively were being used for electricity generation (DEDE, 2017). The AEDP looks to increase energy production from residue use, by targeting future growth in demand, technological changes, and potential areas for renewable energy production. This policy will also impact food supply, water and land use. The sugarcane act in Thailand sets minimum internal prices, in line with international sugar prices, to safeguard the industry, and farmers. However, this safeguard does not apply to sales for energy production, thus discouraging farmers to sell sugarcane to power plants. The study uses an input-output model to understand the economic effects of using crop residue for electricity on the economy, land, labour, etc. The study runs two future scenarios and two historical years (2011 and 2014) to assess these impacts. The first scenario looks at the policy from the Ministry of Industry to stop sugarcane residue burning by 2022. The second scenario looks at the AEDP, which seeks to rapidly increase the generation of electricity from biomass by 2036. The results demonstrate that in the first scenario, where the entire potential of sugarcane bagasse is used for electricity production, electricity generated from all other sources remains nearly the same. Therefore, reliance on non-renewable sources do not change from 2014 to 2022. Similar results are seen for water use, labour and capital, where there is no change over time. The second scenario shows that while the AEDP increases production from biomass, it is not capturing the full potential and therefore electricity production is much lower from crop residues than in scenario 1. This leads to increasing production of electricity from other non renewable sources. We also see a reduction in paddy production and a rise in cane production before the implementation of the AEDP to the future. We conclude that while Thailand is moving towards energy security, policies should target technological development and mechanization at the farm level. The subsidies targeting farmers selling cane for sugar production should also reach those used for energy production, as well as to rice. To ensure reliability of energy supply, irrigation would also be required, as droughts and flooding are both common in different regions of Thailand. Another solution would be to increase the AEDP target, where a larger potential of sugarcane and rice residues are being used for electricity generation.

How to cite: Kumar, I., Feng, K., Bandaru, V., and Sun, L.: An Input-Output Approach to Thailand's Energy Transition: Effects on the Land, Water and Food, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11142, 2020.

EGU2020-11722 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Integrating hydrological constraints for hydropower in energy models: the case of the Zambesi River Basin in the Southern African Power Pool

Martina Daddi, Alessandro Barbieri, Andrea Castelletti, Matteo Giuliani, Emanuela Colombo, Matteo Rocco, and Nicolò Stevanato

Ensuring reliable supplies of energy and water are two important Sustainable Development Goals, particularly for Sub-Saharan African countries. The energy and water challenges are however not independent, and the interlinkages between them are increasingly recognized and studied using water-energy nexus approaches. Yet, most of existing modeling tools are not accurately reproducing this nexus and thus provide limited support to the design of sustainable development plans.

In this work, we contribute an integrated modeling approach by embedding the hydrological description of the Zambesi River Basin into an energy model of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). The SAPP is the largest African power pool in terms of installed capacity and coordinates the planning and operation of the electric power system among the twelve member countries (Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe). Specifically, we use the Calliope energy model, which allows to form internally coherent scenarios of how energy is extracted, converted, transported and used, setting arbitrary spatial and temporal resolution and time series input data. As in many state-of-the-art energy models, hydropower production is poorly described by neglecting the water availability constraints and assuming hydropower plant produce at their nominal capacity in each timestep. Exploiting Calliope existing modeling components, we improved the hydrological description of the main reservoirs in the Zambezi River Basin as part of the overall SAPP model, namely Ithezithezi (120 MW), Kafue Gorge (990 MW), Kariba (1.8 GW) and Cahora Bassa (2 GW). Our improvements include the most relevant hydrological constraints, such as time-varying water availability as determined by inflow patterns, time-varying hydraulic head, evaporation losses, cascade releases and minimum and maximum storage value. The model outcomes, such as the  storage timeseries of each reservoir and the power production by source of each country, are then evaluated for different hydrologic scenarios. Our results are expected to demonstrate the value of advancing the hydropower characterization in energy models by capturing reservoir dynamics and water resource availability. These improvements will be particularly valuable to support hydropower expansion in African countries that rely mostly on hydropower to satisfy their growing energy demand.

How to cite: Daddi, M., Barbieri, A., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M., Colombo, E., Rocco, M., and Stevanato, N.: Integrating hydrological constraints for hydropower in energy models: the case of the Zambesi River Basin in the Southern African Power Pool, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11722, 2020.

EGU2020-11780 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

The Impact of Charcoal Production for Energy on Tropical Rainforest Resources in Nigeria

Angelique Lansu, Jaap Bos, and Wilfried Ivens

In Sub Saharan Africa, many people depend on biomass for their household energy. Charcoal production is a common technique for converting biomass into a useful energy source. Nigeria is the biggest charcoal producer in Sub Saharan Africa. A large amount of wood is harvested from Nigerian forests for this charcoal production for energy. The Nexus of charcoal-land use change-energy imposes a considerable burden on the amount of wood that must be extracted from the forest for charcoal production. Therefore, charcoal production is linked to deforestation and forest degradation. However, it is not clear to what extent the demand for charcoal in Nigeria contributes to deforestation by land use change, and degradation of forests by selected wood logging. In this study, an attempt was made to provide an answer to this and to state which situation could occur by 2030, following the expected population growth in Nigeria. To achieve this, literature and open data on charcoal production, deforestation, forest degradation and population growth in Nigeria have been collected and analysed. Subsequently, calculations were carried out to determine to what extent charcoal production contributed to deforestation in the period 1990-2015. In this period, the share of deforestation due to charcoal production increased from 6% to 14%. If the expected charcoal production in 2030 were to apply to the current situation, this share would be around 20%. The quantity of wood required can also be expressed in numbers of hectares with biomass. In that case, around 80,000 ha would be required in 2030. To validate the findings, further research is needed on the amount of biomass per hectare in Nigerian forests, and on the amount of charcoal exported, not only as source of household energy but also globally as barbecue fuel. A more extensive analysis of open data on the nexus charcoal-land use change-energy at multiple scales will help to project future interlinkages.

How to cite: Lansu, A., Bos, J., and Ivens, W.: The Impact of Charcoal Production for Energy on Tropical Rainforest Resources in Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11780, 2020.

EGU2020-11937 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Assessing the impacts of shale gas development on the water-energy nexus across the semiarid Mexico’s northeast

Saul Arciniega-Esparza, Agustín Breña-Naranjo, Antonio Hernández-Espriú, and Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña

An intensification of water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) to extract oil and gas from deep shale formations has been observed during the last years across the USA, increasing concerns about water resources management in water-limited regions around the world. At the same time, HF has been associated to several environmental and water quality/quantity impacts in many developed plays of USA, China and Canada, nevertheless, assessing impacts on emergent plays involves several difficulties since future development of HF is generally unknown and because of the lack of local data to evaluate water resources baselines.

In this work, we present a framework that combines the use of remote sensing derived data to assess the baseline of water resources and the development and application of a statistical model to project the development of HF activities. Remote sensing and global land surface model products of precipitation (CHIRPS), evapotranspiration (MODIS), recharge (WaterGAP model), infiltration and runoff (MERRA) and water storage (GRACE) were used to estimate water availability and the hydrological response of watersheds and aquifers. Scenarios of HF were generated using a statistical model that simulates HF water requirements, hydrocarbon production, flowback-produced water and economic trends, among others factors that influence the HF development.

The proposed framework was applied to evaluate the impacts of HF development on the water energy-nexus at the transboundary Eagle Ford play, located across Mexico’s northeast, a water-limited region that contains substantial reserves of shale gas.

Scenarios were generated following two economic projections and assuming water use trends and historical HF development from the Eagle Ford, Barnett and Haynesville plays, in Texas, which are geologically similar to the Mexican Eagle Ford play.

Results suggested that the higher impacts on the water-energy nexus in Mexico resulted from reported trends in Eagle Ford, Texas, with ~14,000 wells drilled in ten years and an accumulative water use volume of ~450 millions cubic meters, representing about ~69% of the annual groundwater concessions for municipal use.

The framework presented in this work can be used in other plays around the world to assess the impacts of HF on water resources and their implications in its water-energy nexus.

How to cite: Arciniega-Esparza, S., Breña-Naranjo, A., Hernández-Espriú, A., and Pedrozo-Acuña, A.: Assessing the impacts of shale gas development on the water-energy nexus across the semiarid Mexico’s northeast, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11937, 2020.

EGU2020-13430 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Investigation of the effect of backwater on the propagation of thermal pollution during operation of a thermal power plant

Yanina Parshakova, Tatyana Lyubimova, Anatoliy Lepikhin, and Yuriy Lyakhin

For operation of large thermal power plants, reservoirs-receivers are the most common type of cooler. Depending on the capacity of the power plants and the size of the water bodies used as reservoirs-receivers, the organization of the cooling system may be direct-flow or reverse. The main task of the effective operation of the cooling system is to ensure the stability of its functioning under conditions of significant variability of both hydrological and meteorological parameters. For the solution of this problem, the development of technological operation schemes based on computational experiments is of fundamental importance. It is also important to take into account the effect of thermal pollution on changes in the ice-thermal regime, hydrobiological processes in the area of the influence of the discharge of heated water. At the same time, it is important to take into account both technological and environmental criteria when assessing the parameters of temperature fields created during the discharge of heated water, depending on the complex of technological and hydrometeorological parameters.

 

In the present paper, we considered the scenarios of the impact of the Perm Power Plant on the Kama reservoir using a direct-flow cooling system, which are of the great interest from an environmental and technological points of view. Three-dimensional numerical simulation was carried out for different operating modes of the Kama reservoir. Since significant vertical temperature heterogeneity is observed in reservoirs-receivers, in order to achieve sufficient correctness, calculations should be conducted in the general case using 3D models. However, the implementation of such calculations for large water bodies in the conditions of the extremely limited current monitoring network encounters very significant difficulties due to the limited computing resources. In this regard, a combined calculation scheme is proposed and is being implemented, including models in 1D, 2D, 3D formulations. 1D model was built for the entire reservoir, 2D model for 30 km-length section adjacent to the Perm Power Plant, and for 10 km-length section that includes the supply and discharge channels of the Perm Power Plant, 3D model was created.

 

The calculations have shown that under conditions of strong wind in a direction opposite to the direction of the river flow, large-scale three-dimensional vortex is formed within several hours, the horizontal size of which is equal to the distance between the junctions of the supply and discharge channels with the reservoir, and the vertical size is equal to the depth of the river. The presence of backwater from the Kama hydroelectric station leads to the active movement of warm water in the surface layer against the river flow. In this case, in a few hours, warm water reaches the water intake point of the cooling channel, which is extremely undesirable from a technological point of view. Significant temperature heterogeneity also arises in depth, with the temperature gradient being greatest near the bottom of the river.

 

The study was supported by Russian Science Foundation (grant 17-77-20093).

How to cite: Parshakova, Y., Lyubimova, T., Lepikhin, A., and Lyakhin, Y.: Investigation of the effect of backwater on the propagation of thermal pollution during operation of a thermal power plant, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13430, 2020.

As economic development continues to expand, rivers resources are exploited for power generation, flood control, and irrigation, which substantially impacts the river hydrology and surrounding ecosystem.  Reservoir construction is one of the major contributors to such changes.  Around the world, the long free-flowing rivers are impaired due to reservoirs and their downstream propagation of fragmentation and flow regulation, which impacts the structural and functional connectivities of the entire basin. The extent of interdependence and interactions of biophysical, social, and economic characteristics determine hydrological behaviour and thus define the sustainability of the river ecosystem. In this regard, the topography driven rainfall-runoff modeling (Flex-Topo model) approximates the river landscape hydrological behaviour by delineating the catchment into three functional hydrological units (HRUs).  However, these HRUs are natural and do not take anthropogenic factors into account. Therefore, the present study aims to understand the effects of the integration of reservoirs into a Flex-Topo model to assess model transferability in predicting the river flow regime in ungauged basins.

The Cauvery river basin in India is chosen as a case study. The construction of reservoirs in the Cauvery basin helped to expand irrigated areas, securing water availability during water stress conditions. Nevertheless, it aggravates the water allocation between upstream and downstream states leading to conflict among states sharing the river basin. Based on size and storage capacity, four large reservoirs are selected for the study. At first, the watershed area is delineated based on the gauge location. For adding reservoirs, two different flex-models are created for the watershed’s areas upstream and downstream of the reservoirs. A separate reservoir model is created for each reservoir. The reservoir model is integrated into the flex-model following operation rule curves to simulate the reservoir based on different reservoir yield. It is assumed that the response of the upstream catchment will serve as an input to the reservoir, and the outflow of the reservoir will be an input to the downstream catchment. These three subunits are connected, and river flow is simulated at the gauge station located at the downstream of the reservoir. Three different procedures are adopted to calibrate the model. First, the integrated flex reservoir model is calibrated using the downstream gauging station. In the second calibration method the reservoir is calibrated first, then keeping the parameters of the reservoir fixed the integrated model is calibrated using downstream gauging station. Third, both the reservoir model and flex model are calibrated separately. The modelled runoff from each parameter sets are compared using Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency and Mean Absolute Error with the observed.

Results indicate that the second calibration method performed the best and improved the overall performance of the Flex-Topo model. Further, results are compared across the four reservoirs in order to develop a generalized understanding of transferring a integrated flex model to basins where data on reservoirs is unavailable. The proposed method therefore provides a way to simulate both biophysical constraint and anthropogenic modifications simultaneously in river landscape and enhance understanding of impact of reservoirs on river flow regime.

How to cite: Ekka, A., Kesav, S., Pande, S., Zaag, P. V. D., and Jiang, Y.: Integrating reservoirs in a landscape-based hydrological model to understand the impact of the reservoir on flow regime in the Cauvery river basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16784, 2020.

EGU2020-16867 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1 | Highlight

The Water-Land-Energy-Food-Climate Nexus In Sardinia

Antonio Trabucco, Sara Masia, Janez Sušnik, Donatella Spano, and Simone Mereu

Water use in the Mediterranean has been often pushed beyond sustainability, leading to water degradation and deterioration of ecosystem services. Different factors are interlinked with water management within a dynamically complex system (i.e. the Nexus) characterized by many feedbacks, trade-offs and high complexity of socioeconomic and environmental agents inducing non-linear responses hard to predict. Understanding such nexus systems requires innovative methodologies able to integrate different domains (e.g. hydrology, economics, planning, environmental and social sciences) and potential feedbacks, to support effective and targeted adaptation measures, taking into consideration uncertainty of climate change forecasts and associated impacts. Within the H2020 SIM4NEXUS project, water-land-energy-food-climate nexus links for Sardinia Island were represented with system dynamics modelling, together with relevant policy objectives, goals and measures. Sardinia, as many other Mediterranean regions, must implement a sustainable approach to water management, taking into account an equitable distribution of water resources between different sectors, economic needs, social priorities and ecology of freshwater ecosystems.

For the Sardinia case study, the main focus was the representation of the reservoir water balance for the island, accounting predominantly for water supply and for water demand related to agricultural, hydro-power production, domestic/tourist consumption and environmental flows. With irrigated agriculture being the largest water consumer, this sector was modelled in more detail with crop specific distribution and projections. While water is the central focus, links with other nexus sectors including energy, climate, food and land use are included. Energy generation and consumption were also important along with the mode of generation and sector of consumption, as was modelling the change in crop types (i.e. land use and food production changes) and the crop water requirements associated with potential crop and cropped area changes, and in response to change in the local climate. Energy production is modelled from sources including oil, coal and methane, solar, wind and hydropower, while energy demand comes from the agricultural, domestic, industrial and service sectors (including transportation). The use of energy from the different sectors and using different energy sources, either renewable and not renewable, have different implication on GHG and climate change.

While driven by strong interests to secure food provisions, an increase in irrigation in the Mediterranean may not be totally sustainable. Irrigation requirements of crops are projected to increase between 4 and 18% for 2050 compared to present conditions, limiting expansion of irrigated agriculture in Sardinia. Over the same period the inflow in the reservoirs can decrease between 5 and 20% and evaporation losses from reservoir surface bodies increase by 10%. Policy rules are tested and highlight how optimal allocation should be enforced in order to safeguard sustainability of natural resources over time, especially when considering climate variability. Natural resources are better preserved avoiding conflicts with strong seasonal peaks (i.e. summer). To meet these criticalities, new infrastructures and investments should increase use efficiency, All this would require changes in institutional and market conditions with a more cautious water management that includes prices and recycling policies.

How to cite: Trabucco, A., Masia, S., Sušnik, J., Spano, D., and Mereu, S.: The Water-Land-Energy-Food-Climate Nexus In Sardinia , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16867, 2020.

EGU2020-17840 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Quantifying Water-Energy-food Nexus based on CO2 emission in farm-land

Marzieh Hasanzadeh Saray, Ali Torabi Haghighi, Nasim Fazel, and Björn Klöve

Water, energy, and food security in today's world have been hampered by high population and economic growth, pressures on limited resources, and climate change. Accordingly, balancing the various critical components of biomass in the form of a water-energy-food (WEF) Nexus approach is one of the essential pillars of water resources management, which will enhance the long-term sustainability of water resources by promoting sustainable development. Assessing the WEF Nexus based on CO2 emissions leads to quantify the role of each component of WEF. This work aims to quantify WEF Nexus in a pilot study in the North West of Iran based on analyzing the CO2 emission of the involved sectors. Gathering all require data that are involved in different activities in water, energy, and food sectors is the main challenge in this regard. Sahand Agro-Industry CO2, established in 1996 and expanded in an area about 200 ha to produce alfalfa, maize, potato, rapeseed, sugar beet, and wheat. The area with an average annual temperature of 10.1 °C and bout 356 mm precipitation is located in a warm, dry-summer continental climate (Dsb climate, according to köppen climate classification). A detailed dataset including labor, machinery, diesel oil, fertilizer (nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus), biocide (pesticide, fungicide, and herbicide), irrigation water (groundwater and surface water), and output per unit area per product has been collected for 2008-2017. We evaluated the WEF Nexus by estimating CO2 emission based on the water and energy equivalent and food production per unit area of crop production systems. In this regard, we applied several indices, including the WEF Nexus, water, and energy consumption, mass, and economic productivity, to estimate the CO2 emitted during a ten-year time period, besides the effect of changing the cropping pattern on the amount of CO2 emission. Furthermore, we developed an approach to achieve optimal cropping pattern to minimize water and energy consumption and maximize productivity. Because of the detail calculation of mentioned indices and existing operational limitations, first, two margin scenarios were developed: 1- crop pattern with the lowest CO2 emission and 2- Crop pattern with the maximum net benefit. For each pattern, we calculated the area for different crops. Then by combining these two marginal patterns and using dynamic programming, we developed 128 different patterns between the two mentioned margins. The results showed that as the differentiation in the amount of CO2 equivalent for each crop, different cultivation patterns would have a different effect on the carbon dioxide emission. Water withdrawal (extraction, displacement, and distribution of water in the field) requires energy consumption, which varies depending on the source used for irrigation. Also, water productivity per kcal per m3 will vary depending on the type of crop, cropping system, and agricultural management. Finally, we clustered scenarios based on CO2 emission and net benefit and suggested the optimum condition.

Keywords: CO2 emission, economic productivity, optimization, sustainable development, water-energy-food Nexus

How to cite: Hasanzadeh Saray, M., Torabi Haghighi, A., Fazel, N., and Klöve, B.: Quantifying Water-Energy-food Nexus based on CO2 emission in farm-land, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-17840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17840, 2020.

EGU2020-18378 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Dynamic Energy-Water-Land hotspots at variable spatial scales across the United States

Zarrar Khan, Thomas Wild, Chris Vernon, Mohamad Hejazi, Gokul Iyer, and Neal Graham

Energy, water, and land (EWL) resource planning at regional (e.g. large river basins, states and provinces, balancing authorities) and sub-regional (e.g. sub-basins, counties, Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ)) scales has commonly been conducted in relative isolation by institutions focused on individual sectors, such as water supply or electricity. The effectiveness of this traditional approach is increasingly being strained by rapid integration among sectors as well as by a range of regional and global forces, such as climate, technological and socioeconomic change. In this study we explore regional and sub-regional implications of these changes across the United States for a suite of scenarios representing a range of socio-economic and climate pathways. We couple a global integrated assessment model with a suite of sectoral downscaling tools to analyze the evolution of EWL hotspots at variable spatial scales. The ability to flexibly telescope into regions to identify the evolution of dynamic EWL hotspots allows planners to capitalize on synergistic opportunities as well as avoid potential conflicts across sectors at stakeholder specific jurisdictional boundaries as well as in the context of the larger region.

How to cite: Khan, Z., Wild, T., Vernon, C., Hejazi, M., Iyer, G., and Graham, N.: Dynamic Energy-Water-Land hotspots at variable spatial scales across the United States, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-18378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18378, 2020.

EGU2020-19986 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Environmental sustainability of increasing silk demand in India

Livia Ricciardi, Seda Karatas, Davide Danilo Chiarelli, and Maria Cristina Rulli

Natural resources competition between food and cash crops is a current challenge in many developing countries that are experiencing both lack of food availability and a fast growing economy, such as India. Silk industry has always been significant for the Indian economy since it provides high profits and employment. Almost 90% of the world commercial silk production is mulberry silk. Recently, to the aim of increasing silk production in the Country, the Central Silk Board of the Indian Ministry of Textile and the Indian Space Research Organization have identified potential suitable areas for mulberry cultivation through horizontal expansion in wastelands. Here, taking India as a case study, we analyse if the current cultivation of mulberry silk and the horizontal expansion of moriculture is environmentally sustainable. To this end, using the present land cover, we use a dynamic spatially distributed crop water balance model evaluating mulberry water requirement, the green and blue water provision and analysing both water scarcity at pixel scale and the impact of present and future moriculture on its increase.

Results show in the baseline scenario some States (e.g. West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana) suitable for mulberry horizontal expansion already experiencing water scarcity conditions and high prevalence of malnutrition that will be exacerbated, both on yearly and monthly scale, by increasing moriculture. Other States (i.e. Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland) show Mulberry expansion as the triggering factor of water scarcity condition. Particularly affected by water scarcity will be the North-Eastern Indian districts where potential mulberry areas are clustered.

The analysis of the population exposure to water scarcity due to mulberry horizontal expansion shows 11 million people potentially affected in India, where more than 65% living in the North-Eastern States. Compared to the total North-Eastern Region inhabitants, affected population accounts for more than the 15%.

How to cite: Ricciardi, L., Karatas, S., Chiarelli, D. D., and Rulli, M. C.: Environmental sustainability of increasing silk demand in India, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19986, 2020.

Self-sufficiency in water, food, and energy become major concerns of cities in the global urbanization era. To reach the self-sufficiency goals of cities, they depend more on external water resources, in the form of trade and imports to satisfy the water demands, which came into the focus with rapid urbanization. In this scenario, cities must measure their consumption, to know their dependence on external resources, and to draft their trade policies. But, it is tough to scale the dependency of cities on external resources at the city scale, in scarce of city-level trade data.

Here we are proposing a framework using the consumer-centric approach to scale dependency of an urban agglomeration, from consumption and production perspectives when there is no city-level trade data. In the consumption perspective, we used survey data provided by the National Sample Survey organization of India to asses the consumption footprints. In the production perspective, we used production statistics of the study area to assess the production footprints. The difference between the consumption and production WF will give the dependency of agglomeration on external resources. From the consumption perspective, the consumption WF of the study area is 1041 m3/cap/year.

This framework is flexible and can be switched between any two or more entities to know the dependency of cities on external resources for their resources. Moreover, this assessment plays a key role in trade policy decisions and also in scaling the consumption and dependency of cities to achieve self-sufficiency and sustainability goals of smart cities.

How to cite: Dagani, K. R. and Regonda, S. K.: Urban-Nexus: Dependency of urban agglomeration, Hyderabad, India, on external water resources in developing economy., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20021, 2020.

EGU2020-20951 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Indirect land use risk modelling with System Dynamics: the case of bioplastics

Diego Marazza, Enrico Balugani, and Eva Merloni

Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) is a land use process driven by increase in land demand and mediated by the global market: for example, the increase in demand for a certain crop in a specific country due to its use for the production of bio-materials drives up the global crop price, eventually resulting in land use change in some other country. Since land demand is already high for food/feed production, ILUC often defines if the production of a bio-material is sustainable or not. ILUC is very difficult to observe and therefore it is usually estimated through models rather measured; different models depends on which part of the complex problem is taken into account: economic equilibrium models (partial, general), causal-descriptive models, normative models. Most of these models are static, i.e. time is not directly factored in the model. A study of the JRC showed that ILUC models have high levels of uncertainty, both within and among models, due to uncertainty in input data, different assumptions and modelling frameworks. The (i) lack of model transparency, (ii) lack of dynamic effects and (iii) high model uncertainties make it difficult to include ILUC in sustainable policies.

Here, we present a dynamic causal-descriptive model to estimate changes in land demand as a proxy of the ILUC risk, and test it when increasing the production of bioplastic materials on a global scale. We used a system dynamic framework to (i) maintain the model easy to understand and (ii) account for dynamic effects like delays and feedback loops. We also addressed the (iii) uncertainty problem by: (a) considering ILUC on a global scale only, (b) use yearly time step to avoid short-term economic effects, (c) identifying control variables to use for model validation, (d) modelling only the projected change in land demand and translate it into global risk classes in line with the approach pursued in Europe by the Renewable Energy Directive. The model includes the relevant processes that literature identify as influential for ILUC: use of co-products, competition with the feed sector, price effect on agricultural production (intensive margin), expansion on less suitable land (extensive margin), use of agricultural residues, soil erosion, and increase in agricultural yields. The model was, then, calibrated and validated using the extensive FAOSTAT dataset and then studied using different sensitivity analysis techniques.

The validation shows that the model 10 years projections are reliable (~8% error). Both local and global sensitivity analysis show that that the most relevant factor influencing ILUC risk is the trend of agricultural yields which, at the global level and contrary to what is usually assumed in other models, is insensitive to crop prices. Other relevant factors, interesting for policy makers, are the yields of bioplastics and the use of co-products. The analysis shows there are levels of production that have negligible risk in the next 30 years for specific biomasses and at specific growth and processing conditions. However, a full shift of use from fossil-based plastics to bio-based plastics would result in a 200-300 Mha land conversion globally.

How to cite: Marazza, D., Balugani, E., and Merloni, E.: Indirect land use risk modelling with System Dynamics: the case of bioplastics, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20951, 2020.

In global socioeconomic development facing climate change challenges to minimize the output of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and moving to a more low-carbon economy (LCE) the major driving force for success in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is the cost of energy generation. One of the main factors for energy source selection in the power supply and energy type generation process is the price parameters often influenced at different degree by government policies incentives, technological and demographic challenges in different countries. We research the energy sources situation and possible development trends for developing country Kazakhstan with resource-based economy. In general, the economic aspects affect the quality and quantity of energy generated from different sources with incentives for environmental concern. Traditional energy sources in Kazakhstan, such as coal, oil and natural gas remain low-cost in production due to high reserve base, which leads to steady growth in this area. In general, the cost for generating 1 kWh of energy from the cheapest carbon source of energy sub-bituminous coal is about 0.0024 $, for natural gas 0.0057 $, conventional oil 0.0152 $ (conventional diesel is 0.0664 $) and for expensive unconventional oil 0.0361 $, whereas renewable hydrocarbons could potentially become more competitive with unconventional oil production (methanol 0.0540 $, biodiesel 0.0837 $, bioethanol 0.1933 $ for generating 1 kWh). Furthermore, we consider the main non-traditional and renewable energy sources of energy from the sun, wind, water, and biofuels, hydrogen, methane, gasoline, uranium, and others. There is a difference between the breakeven prices of conventional gas and biomethane (0.0057 $ and 0.047 - 0.15 $ respectively averaging 0.0675 $ per 1 kWh for biomethane) which is often related to the difference in their production methods. The main advantage of biomethane is environmentally friendly production. We also propose an assessment of fuel by environmental characteristics, where one of the hazardous sources Uranium is forth cheap 0.0069 $ per kWh, but the environmental damage caused by its waste is the greatest. At the same time hydropower is seven times more expensive than uranium, but it does not cause direct health damage issues, however influencing significantly ecosystem balance. Hydrogen fuel is the most expensive among others. Overall in Kazakhstan energy-producing from the sun, wind and biogas is more expensive comparing with global trends from 0.4 to 5.5 cents per 1 kWh, but remains cheaper for hydropower. In addition, based on the research findings we analyzed the potential for sustainable non-renewable and renewable energy development in the future for the case of the resource-based economy in Kazakhstan. 

How to cite: Ivakhnenko, A. and Bakytzhan, B.: Characterization of economic and ecological advantages and challenges in development of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon, non-hydrocarbon and renewable energy sources for resource-based economy in Kazakhstan, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21594, 2020.

EGU2020-10933 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Interdisciplinary collaboration in the development of IPCC report glossaries

Robin Matthews, Renee van Diemen, Nora Marie Weyer, and Jesbin Baidya

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces assessment reports on climate change, spanning physical climate science, climate impacts and adaptation, and mitigation. These reports draw upon scientific, technical and socio-economic information and are produced by interdisciplinary and international author teams. The reports, including their glossaries, are used by diverse audiences across the natural and social sciences, policy and practice, and education. IPCC report glossaries are an invaluable resource in their own right, covering the domains of each report and providing rigorous definitions for terms that are oft-used in public discourse.


The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6), for which it has already released three Special Reports, and is currently preparing three Working Group (WG) Reports and a Synthesis Report to be released in 2021/22. Since each report and report chapter is written by a different author team, ensuring consistency in approach and conclusions across and within each report represents a key challenge. An important contribution towards achieving consistency is the development of single definitions for terms to be used across several reports. To facilitate the development of such definitions, the IPCC Secretariat and Technical Support Units have created custom software for internal author use, termed the Collaborative Online Glossary System (COGS). In addition, a public portal for IPCC glossaries (https://apps.ipcc.ch/glossary/) has been developed, where AR5 and approved AR6 report glossaries are hosted and can be readily searched. Here we discuss these tools within the context of interdisciplinary collaboration in climate change assessment. We also highlight the benefits of having consistent definitions when working more broadly at the water-energy-land nexus.

How to cite: Matthews, R., van Diemen, R., Weyer, N. M., and Baidya, J.: Interdisciplinary collaboration in the development of IPCC report glossaries, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10933, 2020.

EGU2020-21784 | Displays | ITS1.1/ERE7.1

Social and environmental dynamics in a charcoal producing area: The case of Central Pokot, Kenya

Maike Petersen, Christoph Bergmann, Paul Roden, and Marcus Nüsser

Wood charcoal ranks amongst the most commercialized but least regulated commodities in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite its prevalence as an energy source for cooking and heating, the localized environmental and livelihood impacts of charcoal production are poorly understood. This research deficit is amplified by widespread negative views of this activity as a poverty-driven cause of deforestation and land-degradation. However, the charcoal-degradation nexus is apparently more complicated, not least because the extraction of biomass from already degraded woodlands can be sustainable under various management regimes. In a case study in Central Pokot, Kenya, where charcoal production began in earnest in the early 1990’s we have investigated the social and environmental dynamics that are interlinked with the production of charcoal. Our methodological approach integrates remote sensing techniques with empirically based social scientific analyses across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our results show that the area has undergone significant changes, both in the human and in the physical sphere. While the public opinion suggests a close connection between charcoal production and land degradation, a detailed Landsat-based land use and land cover change detection could not reveal a causal connection. In addition, a high-resolution analysis using an unmanned aerial system showed only minor effects of charcoal production on the vegetation. Our data indicates that rural small-scale production of charcoal has the potential to be transformed into a sustainable livelihood. Therefore, however, policy makers need to include their specific situation into the legal frameworks.

How to cite: Petersen, M., Bergmann, C., Roden, P., and Nüsser, M.: Social and environmental dynamics in a charcoal producing area: The case of Central Pokot, Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21784, 2020.

ITS1.2/CL5.9 – How to make weather and climate services more efficient in developing countries

EGU2020-21847 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Climate services: The product or the user, which came first?

Stefan Liersch, Holger Hoff, and Seyni Salack

From our experience in West Africa it is obvious that the concept of climate services is not yet well understood or established in all user groups. Also some scientists still wonder if they have not been working on generating knowledge and information about climate change impacts for decades anyway. In some climate services projects, scientists find themselves in a new role, "selling" their products to users who are not necessarily aware of the existence of the product, where an attempt is made to create a demand. In other projects the demand is clear from the beginning. However, the introduction of the term or the concept of climate services has the potential to add a new dimension to the world of climate impact research and especially its application. It influences the attitude of scientists towards the applicability of their results in the direction of more targeted and demand-driven or ideally even co-produced information and services. Understanding scientific information as a service rather than as self-sufficient information for the scientific community, helps to better meet the needs of users. To improve the production and particularly the use of climate services both parties (producer and user) are challenged. To a certain extent, the scientist has to rethink and see the results as a valuable product that can be easily understood and used by others. This often requires a redesign, not necessarily of the product itself but the way it is presented. The user, in turn, must formulate precisely which information is useful to support her or his daily work, e.g. integrating climate change information into development plans for natural resources, sustainable energy planning or adaptation and mitigation strategies. This part in particular poses a real challenge, as the user does not always urgently need the information that a project intends to provide (bad timing) or is not in a position to adequately formulate the type of information required by the institution where she or he is employed. In this case, scientists occasionally face situations where they try to anticipate what kind of information is really useful for the user. Hence, communication between producer and user is key, but is normally not trivial, because of different backgrounds, expertise, language etc. It’s a process that requires facilitation by skilled staff.In the CIREG project in West Africa we elicited the stakeholder’s information demand in a first workshop. Apparently, the greatest need was formulated as capacity building for planning instruments for water and energy management in the context of climate change. By training on these tools, we gain access to the stakeholders and gain insight into their actual information needs. The willingness to share data and information also increases with this kind of cooperation and can lead to real co-production. However, data availability and the willingness to share is a challenge in many developing countries. Research projects are usually too short to identify the need for information, to jointly develop information and at the same time to guarantee and observe its uptake.

How to cite: Liersch, S., Hoff, H., and Salack, S.: Climate services: The product or the user, which came first?, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21847, 2020.

EGU2020-4587 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Create weather ecosystems to make weather and climate services more efficient in developing countries

pascal Venzac, christine David, and morgane Lovat

Create weather ecosystems to make weather and climate services more efficient in developing countries

Pascal Venzac, Christine David, Morgane Lovat

WeatherForce – France

Over the last decade, extreme events are more and more frequent and/or intensive. 85% of the world's population is affected by these events. But, 75% of the most vulnerable countries has no or little reliable, accurate and effective weather information. Effective forecasts and early warnings could however make the difference between life and death in those countries. Weather data are crucial for local populations and governments who can exploit it to optimize their economic development and prevent major social and health crises.

By international agreement, National Meteorology and Hydrology Services (NMHS) are the government's authoritative source of weather, climate and water information. But, some NMHS in developing countries have difficulties to deploy and maintain operational infrastructure like rain gauge recorder for example. In addition, rain gauges provide only local information, measuring rainfall level in the specific geographic location.

WeatherForce was created in August 2016, by two experts from Météo-France Group (French National Meteorological Service) to help meet the challenges of national weather services in developing countries.

WeatherForce works in close partnerships with NMHS to strengthen their fundamental role and implement weather ecosystems for local development with a sustainable business model.

The WeatherForce platform, first weather collaborative platform is designed to help:

  • public institutions that need accurate weather data or predictive indicators to help them make informed decisions to protect local populations and infrastructures.
  • universities or research institutes that need a platform to easily access data to code, modify and share their algorithms.
  • startups incubators that look for reliable data to create innovative applications to help local populations cope with climate change
  • private companies that need custom weather services to improve their performance.

Our platform aggregates global data (satellite images, global forecasts, etc.) transposed into a local geographic context (IoT sensors, local stations, field expertise). It is opened to local research and innovation ecosystems to offer them access to its qualified data and develop new weather indicators contributing to the creation of a meteorological common.

WeatherForce aims to increase local sustainability by making weather data available to all through a weather ecosystem.

Regarding the business model, it is based on revenue sharing, the NMHS receives a commission payment in relation to the revenue generated. WeatherForce sells services to private companies (agribusiness...) and shares the part dedicated with NMHS. The contribution from NMHS is based on the local expertise and data. We do not ask the NMHS to pay a subscription fee for the platform.

To summarize, we create through Public Partner Engagement (PPE) weather ecosystems that promote dialogue between private actors and public authorities; collaboration for better policies, new business opportunities and sustainable business model.

The WeatherForce solution connects local actors to each other but also to the rest of the world thanks to our open-source platform designed to allow collaborations between other weather ecosystems worldwide.

How to cite: Venzac, P., David, C., and Lovat, M.: Create weather ecosystems to make weather and climate services more efficient in developing countries, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4587, 2020.

EGU2020-20842 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Future change in renewable energy availability in West Africa: a time of emergence approach

Marco Gaetani, Benjamin Sultan, Serge Janicot Serge Janicot, Mathieu Vrac, Robert Vautard, Adjoua Moise Famien, Roberto Buizza, and Mario Martina

Independence in energy production is a key aspect of development in West African countries, which are facing fast population growth and climate change. Sustainable development is based on the availability of renewable energy sources, which are tightly tied to climate variability and change. In the context of current and projected climate change, development plans need reliable assessment of future availability of renewable resources.

In this study, the change in the availability of photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy in West Africa in the next decades is assessed. Specifically, the time of emergence (TOE) of climate change in PV and wind potential is estimated in 29 CMIP5 climate projections.

The ensemble robustly simulates a shift into a warmer climate in West Africa, which already occurred, and projects a decrease in solar radiation at the surface to occur by the 70s. The reduction in solar radiation is associated with a projected increase in the monsoonal precipitation in the 21st century. It results a likely change into climate conditions less favourable for PV energy production by the 40s. On the other hand, the projected change in the monsoonal dynamics will drive the increase in low level winds over the coast, which in turn will result in a robustly simulated shift into climate conditions favourable to wind power production by mid-century. Results show that climate model projections are skilful at providing usable information for adaptation measures to be taken in the energy sector.

How to cite: Gaetani, M., Sultan, B., Serge Janicot, S. J., Vrac, M., Vautard, R., Famien, A. M., Buizza, R., and Martina, M.: Future change in renewable energy availability in West Africa: a time of emergence approach, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20842, 2020.

EGU2020-677 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the rainy season using global seasonal forecasts

Manuel Rauch, Jan Bliefernicht, Patrick Laux, Seyni Salack, Moussa Waongo, and Harald Kunstmann

Seasonal forecasts for monsoonal rainfall characteristics like the onset of the rainy season (ORS) are crucial in semi-arid regions to better support decision-making in water resources management, rain-fed agriculture and other socio-economic sectors. However, forecasts for these variables are rarely produced by weather services in a quantitative way. To overcome this problem, we developed an approach for seasonal forecasting of the ORS using global seasonal forecasts. The approach is not computationally intensive and is therefore operational applicable for forecasting centers in developing countries. It consists of a quantile-quantile-transformation for eliminating systematic differences between ensemble forecasts and observations, a fuzzy-rule based method for estimating the ORS date and a graphical method for an improved visualization of probabilistic ORS forecasts, called the onset of the rainy season index (ORSI). The performance of the approach is evaluated from 2000 to 2010 for several climate zones (Sahel, Sudan and Guinean zone) in West Africa, using hindcasts from the Seasonal Forecasting System 4 of ECMWF. Our studies show that seasonal ORS forecasts can be skillful for individual years and specific regions like the Guinean coasts, but also associated with large uncertainties, in particular for longer lead times. The spatial verification of the ORS fields emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate performance measures to avoid an overestimation of the forecast skill. The ORSI delivers crucial information about an early, mean and late onset of the rainy season and it is much easier to interpret for users compared to the common categorical formats used in seasonal forecasting. Moreover, the new index can be transferred to other seasonal forecast variables, providing an important alternative to the common forecast formats used in seasonal forecasting. In this presentation we show (i) the operational practice of seasonal forecasting of ORS and other monsoonal precipitation characteristics, (ii) the methodology and results of the new ORS approach published in Rauch et al. (2019) and (iii) first results of an advanced statistical algorithm using ECMW-SYS5 hindcasts over a period of 30 years (1981-2010) in combination with an improved observational database.

Rauch, M., Bliefernicht, J., Laux, P., Salack, S., Waongo, M., & Kunstmann, H. (2019). Seasonal forecasting of the onset of the rainy season in West Africa. Atmosphere, 10(9), 528.

How to cite: Rauch, M., Bliefernicht, J., Laux, P., Salack, S., Waongo, M., and Kunstmann, H.: Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the rainy season using global seasonal forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-677, 2020.

Agenda 2030 goal 11 commits towards making disaster risk reduction an integral part of sustainable social and economic development. Flooding poses some of the most serious challenges in front of developing nations by hitting hardest to the most vulnerable. Focussing on the urban poor, frequently at highest risk are characterised by inadequate housing, lack of services and infrastructure with high population growth and spatial expansion in dense, lower quality urban structures. Use of big data from within these low-quality urban settlement areas can be a useful step forward in generating information to have a better understanding of their vulnerabilities. Big data for resilience is a recent field of research which offers tremendous potential for increasing disaster resilience especially in the context of social resilience. This research focusses to unleash the unrealised opportunities of big data through the differential social and economic frames that can contribute towards better-targeted information generation in disaster management. The scoping study aims to contribute to the understanding of the potential of big data in developing particularly in low-income countries to empower the vulnerable population against natural hazards such as floods. Recognising the potential of providing real-time and long-term information for emergency management in flood-affected large urban settlements this research concentrates on flood hazard and use of remotely sensed data (NASA, TRMM, LANDSAT) as the big data source for quick disaster response (and recovery) in targeted areas. The research question for the scoping study is: Can big data source provide real-time and long- term information to improve emergency disaster management in urban settlements against floods in developing countries?  Previous research has identified several potentials that big data has on faster response to the affected population but few attempts have been made to integrate the factors to develop an aggregated conceptual output . An international review of multi-discipline research, grey literature, grass-root projects, and emerging online social discourse will appraise the concepts and scope of big data to highlight the four objectives of the research and answer the specific questions around existing and future potentials of big data, operationalising and capacity building by agencies, risk associated and prospects of maximising impact. The research proposes a concept design for undertaking a thematic review of existing secondary data sources which will  be used to provide a holistic picture of how big data can support in resilience through technological change within the specific scope of social and environmental contexts of developing countries. The implications of the study lie in the system integration and understanding of the socio-economics, political, legal and ethical contexts essential for investment decision making for strategic impact and resilience-building in developing nations.

How to cite: Bhattacharya Mis, N.: Big Data for flood management: Realising the benefits for developing countries, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19654, 2020.

EGU2020-6735 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Using global remote sensing and weather data efficiently for agricultural hotspots monitoring anywhere anytime: the ASAP online system

Michele Meroni, Felix Rembold, Ferdinando Urbano, Guido Lemoine, Hervé Kerdiles, Ana Perez-Hoyos, Gabor Csak, Maria Dimou, and Petar Vojnovic

Monitoring agricultural production in vulnerable developing countries is important for food security assessment and requires near real-time (NRT) information on crop growing conditions for early detection of possible production deficits. The public online ASAP system (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) is an early warning decision support tool based on weather data and direct observation of crop status as provided by remote sensing. Although decision makers and food security analysts are the main targeted user groups, all the information is fully made available to the public in a simple and well documented online platform. The information further contributes to multi-agency early warning products such as the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning and food security assessments following the IPC-Cadre Harmonisé framework.

Low resolution remote sensing (1 km) and meteorological (5-25 km) data are processed automatically every 10 days and vegetation anomaly warnings are triggered at the first sub-national administrative level. The severity of the warnings is based on the observed land surface phenology and three main derived indicators computed at the 1 km grid level: a proxy of the current season biomass production (the cumulative value of the Normalized Difference Vegetation index from the start of season); an indicator of precipitation deficit (the Standardized Precipitation Index at the 3 month scale); and a water-balance model output (the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index).Warning maps and summary information are published on a web GIS every ten days and then further analyzed by analysts every month. This results in the identification of hotspot countries with potentially critical crop or rangelands production conditions.

In addition to the hotspots analysis and the warning explorer, users can also zoom in to the parcel level thank to the so called High Resolution Viewer, a web interface based on Google Earth Engine that allows to visualize Sentinels (1 and 2) and Landsat imagery, plot temporal profiles and perform basic anomaly operation (e.g. current year NDVI anomaly with respect to a reference year).  

In the near future it is planned to make the anomaly warnings available also at the second sub-national level and to integrate meteorological forecasts in the warning system.

How to cite: Meroni, M., Rembold, F., Urbano, F., Lemoine, G., Kerdiles, H., Perez-Hoyos, A., Csak, G., Dimou, M., and Vojnovic, P.: Using global remote sensing and weather data efficiently for agricultural hotspots monitoring anywhere anytime: the ASAP online system, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6735, 2020.

The cooperation between Iberoamerican National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) it is coordinated through the Conference of Directors of Iberoamerican NMHS (CIMHET), who takes advantage of the unique framework that provides the cultural and idiomatic heritage in the region. It is constituted by all 21 NMHSs of Iberoamerica, including Spain and Portugal. CIMHET provides a forum for dialogue between Iberoamerican NMHSs, recognized by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as an example of cooperation and operability.
The Conference approves, at its annual meetings from 2003, an action plan over three strategic lines: Institutional strengthening and resource mobilization; provision of meteorological, climatic and hydrological services; education and training
Among the activities carried out in the latest action plans related to a better provision of Weather and Climate Services (WCS) includes the support for the creation and operation of Virtual Regional Centers for the Prevention of Severe Events, the development of a free database management system, namely MCH, which has been donated to WMO for distribution among interested NMHS, the implementation of a regional lightning detection network in Central America, or the development of downscaling climate change scenarios for Central America, with access to information and view via web.
In order to carry out the proper provision of WCS, it is also necessary to have sufficient and properly trained NMHS staff. Therefore, this activity, both for technical and management personnel, has been one of the fundamental elements in the activities carried out by CIMHET, with more than 60 courses and workshops from 2004, most of which have been face-to-face, attended by more than 1500 students.
It is also important to have the appropriate infrastructure and human resources so that NMHS can provide their services to society in a reliable and timely manner. For this, several modernization projects have been developed, mainly considering the needs of the different user sectors and showing their potential of NMHS for the different national social and economic sectors in case of solving their shortcomings.
Finally, intersectoral coordination mechanisms have been established with other Iberomerican networks with common interests, such as the Iberoamerican Network of Climate Change Offices (RIOCC) and the Conference of Iberoamerican Directors of Water (CODIA). A number of priority activities related to climate change adaptation issues linked to extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have been identified and started its development.

How to cite: Tamayo, J.: The experience of Iberoamerican Meteorological Cooperation in the improvement of the provision of Weather and Climate Services, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7476, 2020.

EGU2020-10714 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Water, Weather and Climate Services for Africa: the case of Ghana and Kenya

Frank Ohene Annor, Nick van de Giesen, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis

Close to 80% of Sub-Saharan African farmers rely on rainfed agriculture.  This makes it important that the weather and climate in this region is well understood, since it accounts for more than 15% of the GDP for instance in Ghana and Kenya. However, uncertainties in weather forecast and climate projections are very high in particular for this region, which leads to poor weather and climate services for agriculture production. One of the underlying factors among many is the poor conditions of weather and climate infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) together with some National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa and other partners through the TWIGA project (http://twiga-h2020.eu/) are building a network of weather and hydrological stations to address this need. This network builds on the over 500 TAHMO stations in countries of interest like Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, and Mozambique.

The observation network includes automatic weather stations, soil moisture sensors, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, distributed temperature sensing (DTS), lightning sensors, neutron counters, evaporometers, laser speckle scintillometers, accelerometers for tree weighing, intervalometer rain gauges, flood mapper using citizen science mobile applications (Apps) and crop doctor using drones and Apps. The project has accelerated the Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) of these innovations with some already set up for operational purposes delivering the first set of TWIGA services such as “How humid is my environment?; Crop detection and condition monitoring; Weather-based alerts for citizens/farmers; Area-specific near real-time weather forecast for farmers; Crop insurance based on soil index; Plastic accumulation monitor; Short-term prediction for solar energy; and Precipitable water vapour monitoring with TWIGA GNSS stations. These new innovations and the services developed using the value chain approach is a game changer for Sub-Saharan Africa.

How to cite: Annor, F. O., van de Giesen, N., and ten Veldhuis, M.-C.: Water, Weather and Climate Services for Africa: the case of Ghana and Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10714, 2020.

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a rapidly developing and densely populated region that is home to over 600 million people. This, together with the region’s high sensitivity, exposure and low adaptive capacities, makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change and extremes such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. While the last decade saw some countries in SEA develop their own climate change projections, studies were largely uncoordinated and most countries still lack the capability to independently produce robust future climate information. Following a proposal from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Association (RA) V working group on climate services, the ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series was conceived in 2017 to bridge these gaps in regional synergies. The ARCDAP series has been organised annually since 2018 by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (hosted by Meteorological Service Singapore) with support from WMO through the Canada-funded Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (Canada-CREWS) initiative.

This presentation will cover the activities and outcomes from the first two workshops, as well as the third which will be held in February 2020. The ARCDAP series has so far brought together representatives from ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), climate scientists and end-users from policy-making and a variety of vulnerability and impact assessment (VIA) sectors, to discuss and identify best practices regarding the delivery of climate change information, data usage and management, advancing the science etc. Notable outputs include two comprehensive workshop reports and a significant regional contribution to the HadEX3 global land in-situ-based dataset of temperature and precipitation extremes, motivated by work done with the ClimPACT2 software.

The upcoming third workshop will endeavour to encourage the uptake of the latest ensemble of climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using CMIP-endorsed tools such as ESMValTool. This will address the need for ASEAN climate change practitioners to upgrade their knowledge of the latest global climate model database. It is anticipated that with continued support from WMO, the series will continue with the Fourth workshop targeting the assessment of downscaling experiments in 2021.

How to cite: Lim, G., Moise, A., Rahmat, R., and Timbal, B.: Building synergies in regional climate services for Southeast Asia: The ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series. , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-15094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15094, 2020.

EGU2020-17108 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

The Drought & Flood Mitigation Service in Uganda – First Results

Hermen Westerbeeke, Deus Bamanya, and George Gibson

Since 2017, the governments of Uganda and the United Kingdom have been taking an innovative approach to mitigating the impacts of drought and floods on Ugandan society in the DFMS Project. Recognising both that the only sustainable solution to this issue is the continued capacity development in Uganda’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, and that it will take time for this capacity development to deliver results, the Drought & Flood Mitigation Service Project developed DFMS, bringing together meteorological, hydrological, and Earth observation information products and making these available to decision-makers in Uganda.

After the DFMS Platform was designed and developed in cooperation between a group of UK organisations that includes the Met Office and is led by the REA Group and five Ugandan government agencies including UNMA, led by the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), 2020 saw the start of a 2.5-year Demonstration Phase in which UNMA, MWE, and the other agencies will trial DFMS and DFMS will be fine-tuned to their needs. We will be presenting the first experiences with DFMS, including how it is being used related to SDG monitoring, and will showcase the platform itself in what we hope will be a very interactive session.

DFMS is a suite of information products and access only requires an Internet-connected device (e.g. PC, laptop, tablet, smart phone). Data and information are provided as maps or in graphs and tables, and several analysis tools allow for bespoke data processing and visualisation. Alarms can be tailored to indicate when observed or forecast parameters exceed user-defined thresholds. DFMS also comes with automatic programmable interfaces allowing it to be integrated with other automatic systems. The DFMS Platform is built using Open Source software, including Open Data Cube technology for storing and analysing Earth Observation data. It extensively uses (free) satellite remote sensing data, but also takes in data gathered in situ. By making the platform scalable and replicable, DFMS can be extended to contain additional features (e.g. related to landslides or crop diseases) or be rolled out in other countries in the region and beyond.

How to cite: Westerbeeke, H., Bamanya, D., and Gibson, G.: The Drought & Flood Mitigation Service in Uganda – First Results, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-17108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17108, 2020.

EGU2020-5712 * | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9 | Highlight

WaterApps: co-producing tailor-made water and weather information services with and for farmers for sustainable agriculture in peri-urban delta areas in Ghana and Bangladesh

Spyridon Paparrizos, Talardia Gbangou, Uthpal Kumar, Rebecca Sarku, Joreen Merks, Saskia Werners, Art Dewulf, Fulco Ludwig, and Eric van Slobbe

Water for agriculture in peri-urban areas is vital to safeguard sustainable food production. Due to the dynamics of urbanization in deltas as well as climate change, water availability (too much, not enough, too late or early) is becoming erratic and farmers cannot rely only on their own experience anymore for agricultural decision-making. The WaterApps project develops tailor made water and weather information services with and for farmers in peri-urban areas in the urbanizing deltas of Accra, Ghana and Khulna, Bangladesh to improve water and food security and contribute towards sustainable agriculture.

The project’s design framework initially focuses on the farmers that are involved and supported during its course in the study areas and assesses their needs. Based on the baseline needs assessment study and along with the farmers in a co-producing mode Climate Information Services are being developed that provide tailor-made water and weather information and are continuously monitored and evaluated to ensure their effectiveness.

WaterApps combines the latest information technology such as Apps, social media, etc. on knowledge sharing that are enhanced with the local farmers’ information needs, demands and preferences to produce tailor-made Climate Information Services.

It deals with the technical part & design aspects of the water and climate information services, such as: the skill of the provided information on different spatio-temporal scales and the role of Local Forecasting Knowledge in the study areas.

Currently, an APP is being developed which, besides displaying scientific forecast gives the possibility to farmers to provide their own indigenous forecast. Additionally, scientific and indigenous forecast are being integrated providing a hybrid forecast.

In Bangladesh, Farmers’ Fields Schools (FFS) have been initiated together with meetings and trainings. The objective was to engage with farmers on a weekly basis by providing long term weather forecast and discuss the relevance in relation to upcoming agricultural activities. Social media are employed to inform agricultural extension officers and stakeholders on a daily basis.

Both cases in Bangladesh and Ghana show the importance of two-way communication and co-production with and for farmers. The co-production of water and weather information services empowers and improves livelihoods of small/medium farmers and builds capacity for enhancing sustainable food production. Finally, it lays the ground for upscaling in other urban-rural delta zones in the developing world.

How to cite: Paparrizos, S., Gbangou, T., Kumar, U., Sarku, R., Merks, J., Werners, S., Dewulf, A., Ludwig, F., and van Slobbe, E.: WaterApps: co-producing tailor-made water and weather information services with and for farmers for sustainable agriculture in peri-urban delta areas in Ghana and Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5712, 2020.

EGU2020-21637 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

The Climate Information platform: A climate science basis for climate adaptation and mitigation activities in developing countries

Frida Gyllensvärd, Christiana Photiadou, Berit Arheimer, Lorna Little, Elin Sjökvist, Katharina Klehmet, Thomas Bosshard, Léonard Santos, Maria Elenius, René Capell, and Isabel Ribeiro

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) are collaborating on a project providing expert services for enhancing the climate science basis of GCF-funded activities. The goal is to ensure that the causal links between climate and climate impacts, and between climate action and societal benefits, are fully grounded in the best available climate data and science.  Five pilot countries are participating in this phase of the project: St Lucia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cape Verde, Cambodia, and Paraguay, with an audience of national experts, international stakeholders, and policy and decision makers.

The scientific framework which we follow here is a compendium of available data, methods and tools for analysing and documenting the past, present and potential future climate conditions which a GCF-funded project or adaptation plan might seek to address. Through the WMO-GCF-SMHI project, the methodology, scientific framework, data, methods and tools to link global to local data are complemented by hands-on support, backed by access to relevant data and tools through a structured access platform.

In this presentation we elaborate on the lessons learnt from a number of workshops that were designed for the five pilot countries. The main focus of the workshops was a hands-on opportunity of national experts and international stakeholders to work with the WMO methodology in order to develop a GCF proposal for future funding. The participants in each country worked intensively during a five-day workshop on each step of the methodology: Problem definition, Identification of climate science basis, Interpretation of data analysis, selection of best adaptation/mitigation options, and assessment of adaptation/mitigation effectiveness.

Assessing past and current climate and climate projections is the basis for inferring real and potential climate change and related impacts. For this, SMHI has developed a new interactive online platform/service (https://climateinformation.org/) to facilitate the communication between the GCF and developing countries and provide access to state of the art climate data to be used in impact assessment planning. The new service provides data for robust climate analysis to underpin decision-making when planning measures for climate adaptation or mitigation. Readily available climate indicators will help defining future problems, assess climatic stressors, and analyse current and future risks. This makes a climate case, which is the basis for developing interventions and propose investments. In particular the service provides:

  • Easy access to many climate indicators, based on state-of-the-art climate science.
  • Instant summary reports of climate change for any site on the globe.
  • Guidance on how to link global changes to local observations.

How to cite: Gyllensvärd, F., Photiadou, C., Arheimer, B., Little, L., Sjökvist, E., Klehmet, K., Bosshard, T., Santos, L., Elenius, M., Capell, R., and Ribeiro, I.: The Climate Information platform: A climate science basis for climate adaptation and mitigation activities in developing countries , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21637, 2020.

Floods are a serious concern in West Africa, and their severity will likely increase with climate change. The European Union-financed, inter- and transdisciplinary project FANFAR (https://fanfar.eu/) aims at providing an operational flood forecast and alert pilot system for West Africa, based on an open-source hydrological model employed in a cloud-based Information and Communications Technology (ICT) environment. To achieve this, an existing pilot ICT system is co-designed and co-adapted to meet needs and preferences of West African users. Four workshops are carried out in West Africa from 2018 to 2020, each with around 40 representatives from hydrological and emergency management agencies from 17 West African countries.

To better understand the stakeholders’ needs and preferences, and to prioritize the development of the FANFAR ICT flood forecasting and alert system, we use Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). This MCDA framework guides through a stepwise procedure to develop the FANFAR ICT system such that it best fulfils those objectives that are fundamentally important to stakeholders. The first steps of MCDA are problem structuring; starting with a stakeholder analysis to identify the most important participants for the co-design workshops. In the first co-design workshop (Niamey, Niger, 2018), we then used different problem structuring methods (PSMs) to brainstorm which objectives are fundamentally important to West African stakeholders, and which options (ICT system configurations) might achieve these objectives. To generate objectives, we used online and pen-and-paper surveys, group brainstorming, and plenary discussions. To generate options, we used a strategy generation table and the brainwriting-635 method. Between workshops, the FANFAR consortium post-processed the objectives and options. We also interviewed experts to predict how well an option achieves each objective; including the uncertainty, which is later propagated to the MCDA results with Monte Carlo simulation.

The refined objectives were again discussed in plenary sessions in co-design workshop 2 (Accra, Ghana, 2019), and we elicited the participants’ preferences in small group sessions. Weight elicitation captures the trade-offs stakeholders are willing to make regarding achieving objectives, if not all objectives can be fully fulfilled. We used the card procedure to elicit weights (Simos revised procedure), and the popular swing method. As additional preference information for the MCDA modelling, we elicited the shape of the most-important marginal value functions, which “translate” the objectives’ measurement-units to a neutral value between 0 (objective is not achieved) and 1 (fully achieved). To give one example: for the objective “high accuracy of information”, the best case is “100% accuracy”, translated to the value v=1; the worst case “0% accuracy” translates to v=0. Furthermore, we asked whether stakeholders agree with the implications of the commonly used (linear) additive aggregation model in MCDA (weighted average).

We will present and discuss main results of the MCDA-modeling. Our main aim is to give some insights into the participatory co-design process employed in FANFAR, and recommendations for other projects. We will discuss the problem structuring and preference elicitation methods, and how well they worked in this interesting West African context.

How to cite: Lienert, J., Andersson, J., and Silva Pinto, F.: Co-designing a flood forecasting and alert system in West Africa with decision-making methods: the transdisciplinary project FANFAR, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-8127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8127, 2020.

EGU2020-22322 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Combining Indigenous and Scientific Forecast for Improved Climate Services in Ghana

Emmanuel Nyadzi, Saskia Werners, Robbert Biesbroek, and Fulco Ludwig

Extreme weather events and climate change are affecting the livelihoods of farmers across the globe. Accessible and actionable weather and seasonal climate information can be used as an adaptation tool to support farmers to take adaptive farming decisions. There are increasing calls to integrate scientific forecast with indigenous forecast to improve weather and seasonal climate information at local scale. In Northern Ghana, farmers lament about the quality of scientific forecast information thereby depending on their own indigenous forecast for taking adaptive decisions. To improve this, we developed an integrated probability forecast (IPF) method to combine scientific and indigenous forecast into a single forecast and tested its reliability using binary forecast verification method as a proof of concept. We also evaluated the acceptability of IPF among farmers by computing an index from multiple-response questions with good internal consistency check. Results show that, for reliability, IPF on average performed better than indigenous and scientific forecast at a daily timescale. At seasonal timescale, indigenous forecast overall performed better followed by IPF and then scientific forecast. However, IPF has far greater acceptability potential.  About 93% of farmers prefer IPF method as this provides a reliable forecast, requires less time and at the same time helps deal with contradicting forecast information. Results also show that farmers already use insights from both forecasts (complementary) to inform their farm decisions. However, their complementary method does not resolve the issues of contradicting forecast information. We conclude that, as a proof of concept, integrating indigenous and scientific forecast has high acceptability and can potentially increase forecast reliability and uptake.

 

 

 

How to cite: Nyadzi, E., Werners, S., Biesbroek, R., and Ludwig, F.: Combining Indigenous and Scientific Forecast for Improved Climate Services in Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-22322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22322, 2020.

EGU2020-22514 | Displays | ITS1.2/CL5.9

Success of the co-production and delivery of local and scientific weather forecasts information with and for smallholder farmers in Ghana

Talardia Gbangou, Rebecca Sarku, Erik Vanslobbe, Fulco Ludwig, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Spyridon Paparrizos, and Art Dewulf

Many West African farmers struggle to cope with changing weather and climatic conditions that keep them from making optimal decisions and meeting food and income security. The development of more accessible and credible weather and climate services (WCIS) can help local farmers improve their adaptive capacity. Such adequate WCIS often requires a joined collaboration between farmers and scientists to co-create an integrated local and scientific forecasting knowledge. We examine (i) the design requirements (i.e. Both technical and non-technical tools) and (ii) evaluate the outcomes of a successful implementation of the co-production and delivery of WCIS in Ada East district, Ghana. We implemented a user-driven design approach in a citizen science experiment involving prototype design and testing, training workshops, and interviews with farmers, agricultural and meteorological extension agents from 2018 to 2019. Farmers were handed with digital tools (i.e. Smart phones with web and mobile applications) and rain gauges as research instruments to collect and receive weather forecast data, and interact with scientists.

               Our results show that farmers’ engagement increased over time and is associated with the trainings and the improvement of the design features of the applications used. The evaluation shows an increase in the usability of tools, the reach or networking with other farmers, and the understanding of uncertainty (probabilistic) aspect of the forecasts over time. Local farmers evaluated both the local and scientific forecasts as accurate enough and useful for their daily farming decisions. We concluded that using modern technology in a co-production process, with targeted training, can improve the access and use of weather forecasts information.

How to cite: Gbangou, T., Sarku, R., Vanslobbe, E., Ludwig, F., Kranjac-Berisavljevic, G., Paparrizos, S., and Dewulf, A.: Success of the co-production and delivery of local and scientific weather forecasts information with and for smallholder farmers in Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-22514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22514, 2020.

ITS1.4/HS4.8 – Reducing the impacts of natural hazards through forecast-based action: from early warning to early action

EGU2020-11979 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

The Progress of KMA’s Impact-based Forecasting

Hyojin Han, YoungYoung Park, Ji-Hyeon Kim, Yongjun Ahn, KyongJun Lee, Ji Ae Song, Yeongseon Kim, and Wonho Kim

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) set a main policy goal as “Impact-based forecasting (IBF) for mitigation of meteorological disaster risks” in 2016. As a first step toward the goal, each regional office of the KMA operated a prototype of impact-based forecast service tailored to major severe weather conditions in each region from 2016 to 2018. As a result, the prototype service was found to contribute to reducing meteorological disasters in those regions. In order to determine quantitative impacts caused by meteorological disasters, a multi-ministerial R&D project was began in 2018 which is aiming to develop the Hazard Impact Models (HIM) for heavy rainfall and heatwave/coldwave. The project will be completed by the end of 2020, and the developed HIM will be operated for the KMA operational IBF. 
The KMA officially launched heatwave IBF service from June to September 2019 in order to support effective reduction of heatwave impacts. The KMA provided risk levels in different colors (attention-green, caution-yellow, warning-orange, danger-red), impact information and response tips for seven sectors—health, industry, livestock, aquaculture, agriculture, transportation and electric power—considering the regional characteristics. This information was disseminated to the public on the KMA's website. It was also provided to disaster response related agencies through the Meteorological Information Portal Service System for Disaster Prevention, as well as to local governments’ disaster response managers and officials managing the socially vulnerable people through mobile text messages. According to user satisfaction survey, a great number of users showed positive responses to the KMA heatwave IBF. Based on the success of heatwave IBF, coldwave IBF trial service was offered from December 2019 to March 2020. In addition, KMA plans to expand IBF to other high-impact weathers such as typhoon, heavy snow, heavy rainfall, and so on.

How to cite: Han, H., Park, Y., Kim, J.-H., Ahn, Y., Lee, K., Song, J. A., Kim, Y., and Kim, W.: The Progress of KMA’s Impact-based Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11979, 2020.

EGU2020-6003 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Designing a multi-objective framework for forecast-based action of extreme rains in Peru

Jonathan Lala, Juan Bazo, and Paul Block

The last few years have seen a major innovation within disaster management and financing through the emergence of standardized forecast-based action protocols. Given sufficient forecasting skill and lead time, financial resources can be shifted from disaster response to disaster preparedness, potentially saving both lives and property. Short-term (hours to days) early warning systems are common worldwide; however, longer-term (months to seasons) early actions are still relatively under-studied. Seeking to address both, the Peruvian Red Cross has developed an Early Action Protocol (EAP) for El Niño-related extreme precipitation and floods. The EAP has well-defined risk metrics, forecast triggers, and early actions ranging from 5 days to 3 months before a forecasted disaster. Changes in climate regimes, forecast technology, or institutional and financial constraints, however, may significantly alter expected impacts of these early actions. A robust sensitivity analysis of situational and technological constraints is thus conducted to identify benefits and tradeoffs of various actions given various future scenarios, ensuring an adaptive and effective protocol that can be used for a wide range of changing circumstances.

How to cite: Lala, J., Bazo, J., and Block, P.: Designing a multi-objective framework for forecast-based action of extreme rains in Peru, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6003, 2020.

EGU2020-1367 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Flood preparedness decisions and stakeholders' perspectives on flood early warning in Bangladesh

Sazzad Hossain, Hannah Cloke, Andrea Ficchì, and Elisabeth Stephens

There is high temporal variability in the occurrence of the monsoon floods in Bangladesh during the South Asian summer monsoon. Detailed flood forecast information about flood timing and duration can play a vital role in flood preparedness decisions. The objective of this study is to understand different stakeholder perceptions about existing forecasting tools and data, and how these can support preparedness and response activities. Forecast users can be divided into three broad categories-national, sub-national and community level. The stakeholders working at national level are involved in policy making while the sub-national level involved in implementation of policies.  In order to identify the appropriate lead-time for better flood preparedness and the challenges in communicating probabilistic forecasts to users, semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders involved in various sectors of flood disaster management at national and sub-national level, community level household surveys, focus group discussions and a national consultation workshop were undertaken during the 2019 monsoon.

It was found all major stakeholders working at national and sub-national levels are aware of the availability of forecasts and receive flood forecasts from the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC). However, about 40% of the respondents at the community do not receive forecast information. Before the flood event, policy level stakeholders need to know the availability of resources and preparedness at the sub-national level for better response activities. On the other hand, sub-national level stakeholders of different government agencies act as a bridge between policy level and the local community. Existing short-range forecasts cannot provide information about the potential flood duration which is essential for resources assessment, mobilization and preparedness activities.

People living in the floodplain are aware about the flood seasons as it is an annual phenomenon. However, they can anticipate floods events only 2 to 3 days beforehand based on the available early warning and their risk knowledge. This short-range forecast can be used for some basic household level response activities such as protecting household equipment or moving their livestock to a safer place. It is essential to know the actual duration and flood extent for their agricultural decisions such as understanding when to transplant young crops into the field. The study found that all stakeholders need forecast information with a lead-time between 15 to 20 days for better flood preparedness decisions. People are likely to have seen deterministic forecasts so far and are not used to probabilistic forecasts with multiple scenarios for a same event. However, national forecast bulletins may include probability of flooding events based on a threshold known as flood danger level. Capacity development of the local community is necessary to improve understanding of the probabilistic forecast and overcome communication challenges.

 

 

How to cite: Hossain, S., Cloke, H., Ficchì, A., and Stephens, E.: Flood preparedness decisions and stakeholders' perspectives on flood early warning in Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1367, 2020.

EGU2020-507 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Towards improving a national flood early warning system with global ensemble flood predictions and local knowledge; a case study on the Lower Shire Valley in Malawi.

Thirza Teule, Anaïs Couasnon, Kostas Bischiniotis, Julia Blasch, and Marc van den Homberg

Flood risk, a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, is increasing globally and has led to more and more disastrous flood events. Previous research has shown that taking early action is much more cost-effective than responding once the flood occurs. Such an anticipatory approach requires flood early warning systems (EWS) that provide ample lead time and that have sufficient spatial resolution. However, in developing countries, often the skill of available forecasts is insufficient to create a more effective triggering mechanism as part of a flood EWS.

This research presents an assessment of two methods to improve an existing flood EWS using a case study of the most flood-prone area of Malawi, i.e. the Lower Shire Valley. First, the forecast skill and trigger levels of the medium-term Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) model are determined for four gauge locations to assess how they can improve the national EWS. Secondly, an assessment is done on how the process of integrating flood forecasts based on local knowledge with official forecasts, can help to improve the EWS. This is done by semi-structured interviews at the national level and focus group discussions at the community level. The study shows that GloFAS does not predict absolute discharge values precisely, but can be used to predict floods if the correct trigger levels are set per location. The integration of multiple forecast sources is found to be useful at both national and community levels. An integration process is proposed where village stakeholders should take the leading role by using existing disaster management and civil protection coordination mechanisms. Overall, both methods can contribute to improving the flood EWS and decreasing the flood risk in the Lower Shire Valley in Malawi.

How to cite: Teule, T., Couasnon, A., Bischiniotis, K., Blasch, J., and van den Homberg, M.: Towards improving a national flood early warning system with global ensemble flood predictions and local knowledge; a case study on the Lower Shire Valley in Malawi., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-507, 2020.

EGU2020-19559 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

On the development and operationalization of an impact-based forecasting system to support early action for river floods in Zambia

Stefania Giodini, Aklilu Teklesadik, Jannis Visser, Orla Canavan, Innocent Bwalya, Irene Amuron, and Marc van den Homberg
Flooding in Zambia occurs on almost an annual basis greatly affecting the livelihoods of communities. Early action is crucial to mitigate the impact of flooding but needs to be guided by an early warning that is credible and actionable, linked to situational awareness based on data.  The 510 data team at the Netherlands Red Cross has been working together with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Zambia Red Cross Society, Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) and Zambia Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) to develop a data driven early warning system to support impact based early action implementation. The system has been co-designed with the relevant local stakeholders and  integrates a hydrological model with a vulnerability capacity assessment based on secondary data for the whole country at the highest level of possible granularity (district level). A threshold based trigger model has been developed together with local decision makers to activate the system with a lead time up to 7 days. The system is being integrated in the Emergency Operation Centre operated by Zambia's DMMU as a part of the country standard early action protocol. This paper describes the system design, results from the first activations and lessons learned. 

How to cite: Giodini, S., Teklesadik, A., Visser, J., Canavan, O., Bwalya, I., Amuron, I., and van den Homberg, M.: On the development and operationalization of an impact-based forecasting system to support early action for river floods in Zambia, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19559, 2020.

EGU2020-20150 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Improving flood damage assessments in data-scarce areas by retrieving building characteristics through automated UAV image processing

Hans de Moel, Lucas Wouters, Marleen de Ruiter, Anais Couasnon, Marc van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Jacopo Margutti

Reliable information on building stock and its vulnerability is important for understanding societal exposure to flooding and other natural hazards. Unfortunately, this often lacks in developing countries, resulting in flood damage assessments that use aggregated information collected on a national- or district level. In many instances, this information does not provide a representation of the built environment, nor its characteristics. This study aims to improve current assessments of flood damage by extracting structural characteristics on an individual building level and estimating flood damage based on its related susceptibility. An Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) of high-resolution drone imagery is carried out, after which a machine learning algorithm is used to classify building types and outline building shapes. This is applied to local stage-dependent damage curves. To estimate damage, the flood impact is based on the flood extent of the 2019 mid-January floods in Malawi, derived from satellite remote sensing. Corresponding water depth is extracted from this inundation map and taken as the damaging hydrological parameter in the model. The approach is applied to three villages in a flood-prone area in the Southern Shire basin in Malawi. By comparing the estimated damage from the individual object approach with an aggregated land-use approach, we highlight the potential for very detailed and local damage assessments using drone imagery in low accessible and dynamic environments. The results show that the different approaches on exposed elements make a significant difference in damage estimation and we make recommendations for future assessments in similar areas and scales.

How to cite: de Moel, H., Wouters, L., de Ruiter, M., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M., Teklesadik, A., and Margutti, J.: Improving flood damage assessments in data-scarce areas by retrieving building characteristics through automated UAV image processing, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20150, 2020.

Semi-arid regions are the regions mostly affected by drought. In these climatically sensitive regions, the frequency and intensity of drought and hot extremes is projected to increase. With increasing precipitation variability in semi-arid regions, sustainable water management is required. Proactive drought and extreme event preparedness, as well as damage mitigation could be provided by the use of seasonal climate forecasts. However, their probabilistic nature, the lack of clear action derivations and institutional conservatism impedes their application in decision making of the water management sector. Using the latest global seasonal climate forecast product (SEAS5) at 35 km resolution and 7 months forecast horizon of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, we show that seasonal-forecast-based actions offer potential economic benefit and allow for climate proofing in semi-arid regions in the case of drought and extreme events. Our analysis includes 7 semi-arid, in parts highly managed river basins with extents from tens of thousands to millions of square kilometers in Africa, Asia and South America. The value of the forecast-based action is derived from the skill measures of hit (worthy action) and false alarm (action in vain) rate and is related to economic expenses through ratios of associated costs and losses of an early action. For water management policies, forecast probability triggers for early action plans can be offered based on expense minimization and event maximization criteria. Our results show that even high lead times and long accumulation periods attain value for a range of users and cost-loss situations. For example, in the case of extreme wet conditions (monthly precipitation above 90th percentile), seasonal-forecast-based action in 5 out of 7 regions can still achieve more than 50 % of saved expenses of a perfect forecast at 6 months in advance. The utility of seasonal forecasts strongly depends on the user, the cost-loss situation, the region and the concrete application. In general, seasonal forecasts allow decision makers to save expenses, and to adapt to and mitigate damages of extreme events related to climate change.

How to cite: Portele, T., Lorenz, C., Laux, P., and Kunstmann, H.: Proactive Drought and Extreme Event Preparedness: Seasonal Climate Forecasts offer Benefit for Decision Making in Water Management in Semi-arid Regions, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16179, 2020.

EGU2020-6647 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Forecasting vegetation condition to mitigate the impacts of drought in Kenya.

Pedram Rowhani, Adam Barrett, Seb Oliver, James Muthoka, Edward Salakpi, and Steven Duivenvoorden

Droughts are a major threat globally as they can cause substantial damage to society, especially in regions that depend on rain-fed agriculture. Acting early based on alerts provided by early warning systems (EWS) can potentially provide substantial mitigation, reducing the financial and human cost. However, existing EWS tend only to monitor current, rather than forecast future, environmental and socioeconomic indicators of drought, and hence are not always sufficiently timely to be effective in practice. In Kenya, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) provides monthly bulletins assessing food security in the 23 arid and semiarid regions using current biophysical (e.g., rainfall, vegetation condition) and socio-economic (production, access, and utilisation) factors. One key biophysical indicator used by the NDMA drought phase classification is based on the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI).

In this study we explore machine-learning techniques to forecast (up to six weeks ahead) the 3-month VCI, commonly used in the pastoral areas of Kenya to monitor droughts. we specifically focus on Gaussian Process modelling and linear autoregressive modelling to forecast this indicator, which are derived from both Landsat (every 16 days at 30m resolution) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - daily data at 500m resolution).

Our methods provide highly skillful forecasting several weeks ahead. As a benchmark we predicted the drought alert marker used by NDMA (VCI3M< 35). Both of our models were able to predict this alert marker four weeks ahead with a hit rate of around 89% and a false alarm rate of around 4%, or 81% and 6% respectively six weeks ahead.

The forecasts developed here could, for example, help establish a new drought phase classification (`Early Alert') which, along with adequate preparedness actions developed by the disaster risk managers, would minimise the risk of a worsening drought condition.

How to cite: Rowhani, P., Barrett, A., Oliver, S., Muthoka, J., Salakpi, E., and Duivenvoorden, S.: Forecasting vegetation condition to mitigate the impacts of drought in Kenya., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6647, 2020.

EGU2020-16114 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8 | Highlight

Linking Drought Forecast Information to Smallholder Farmer’s Strategies and Local Knowledge in Southern Malawi

Ileen Streefkerk, Hessel Winsemius, Marc van den Homberg, Micha Werner, Tina Comes, Maurits Ertsen, Neha Mittal, and Gumbi Gumbi

Most people of Malawi are dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. This leaves them vulnerable to drought and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. Farmers have adopted local strategies and knowledge which have evolved over time to help in reducing the overall vulnerability to climate variability shocks. One other option to increase the resilience of rainfed farmers to drought, is providing forecast information on the upcoming rainfall season. Forecast information has the potential to inform farmers in their decisions surrounding agricultural strategies. However, significant challenges remain in the provision of forecast information. Often, the forecast information is not tailored to farmers, resulting in limited uptake of forecast information into their agricultural decision-making.

Therefore, this study explores how drought forecast information can be linked to existing farmers strategies and local knowledge on predicting future rainfall patterns. By using participatory approaches, an understanding is created of what requirements drought forecast information should meet to effectively inform farmers in their decision-making. Based on these requirements a sequential threshold model, using meteorological indicators based on farmer’s local knowledge was developed to predict drought indicators (e.g. late onset of rains and dry spells). Additionally, using interviews among stakeholders and a visualisation of the current information flow, further insights on the current drought information system was developed.

The results of this research show that local knowledge has a predictive value for forecasting drought indicators. The skill of the forecast differs per location with an increased skill for Southern locations. In addition, the results suggest that local knowledge indicators have an increased predictive value in forecasting the locally relevant drought indicators in comparison the currently used ENSO-related indicators. This research argues that the inclusion of local knowledge could potentially improve the current forecast information by tailoring it to farmer's forecast requirements and context. Therefore, the findings of this research could be insightful and relevant for actors or research fields involved in drought forecasting in relation to user-specific needs. 

How to cite: Streefkerk, I., Winsemius, H., van den Homberg, M., Werner, M., Comes, T., Ertsen, M., Mittal, N., and Gumbi, G.: Linking Drought Forecast Information to Smallholder Farmer’s Strategies and Local Knowledge in Southern Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16114, 2020.

EGU2020-19652 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

A review of the effectiveness of drought warning communication and dissemination in Malawi

Alexia Calvel, Micha Werner, Marc van den Homberg, Hans van der Kwast, Andrés Cabrera Flamini, and Neha Mittal

Droughts constitute one of the major and complex natural hazards that may lead to food insecurity due to its long-term and cumulative impact, compounded by the difficulty of drought being predicted. Efforts to improve early warning systems are being conducted to help reduce the impacts caused by drought events, and although significant advances have been made in the forecasting of drought, provision of actionable warning that leads to effective response is challenging due to a range of factors.  In this study we aim to improve our understanding of how people-centred warning communication and dissemination is being carried out for drought warning in Malawi.  Our methodology is based on five focus group discussions with farmers and 25 semi-structured interviews with various government officials, as well as with representatives from UNDP, WFP and NGOs. The analysis of these interviews and discussions is based on a qualitative approach using the concept of grounded theory and content analysis; to better understand the organisational structure, communication processes and the ability of warnings triggering actions by farmers and NGOs.

Our results identified that both within the farming communities as with the NGO’s and working at the local level there is a different perception than expected of what constitutes drought. Droughts are considered to be events that cause the failure of crops, which relates primarily to the occurrence of prolonged dry spells following the planting season, fall army worms and even the occurrence of floods. Consistently, drought warnings that are disseminated at the local level have been found to focus on these aspects. Moreover, it was found that although these warnings do trigger actions, they do so only to a certain extent. Daily weather forecast are not being used by farmers due to the high uncertainty associated with these predictions. For NGOs, drought early warnings are used in combination with the famine early warnings to trigger early actions.

Communication channels and processes were found to be well adapted to local conditions and to disseminate the consistent drought warnings and guidance to end-users. This has led to improved trust towards drought early warnings received. However, the high level of illiteracy and lack of understanding of the link between impacts and weather information render the seasonal forecast and text-messages unusable to farmers, with agricultural extension officers and the community-radios the preferred channels of communication. Organisational structures and processes appear to be relatively clear. Nevertheless, feedback mechanisms were found to be only scantily implemented due to the lack documentation on local perceptions and indigenous knowledge. Overall our results show that progress has been made in meeting the requirements for a people-centred early warning. However, external challenges such as a lack of local funds which has led to a high dependency on donors or the frequent changes of government officials affect the well-development of such an approach.  

How to cite: Calvel, A., Werner, M., van den Homberg, M., van der Kwast, H., Cabrera Flamini, A., and Mittal, N.: A review of the effectiveness of drought warning communication and dissemination in Malawi , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19652, 2020.

EGU2020-19891 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Forecast based action: developing triggers for preventing food insecurity in Eastern Africa

Marc van den Homberg, Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, and Edward Bolton

The project “Forecast based Financing for Food Security” (F4S) was initiated in July 2019 with the aim to provide a deeper understanding of how forecast information could be routinely used as a basis for financing early action for preventing food insecurity in pilot areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. The F4S project is linked to the existing Innovative Approaches in Response Preparedness Project and is in response to the growing interest and attention placed in recent years by academic institutions, development and humanitarian agencies on creating evidence that can leverage risk prevention and disaster risk reduction.

To ensure adequate forecast-based actions one needs to have the right information and evidence to guide fast decision-making. Key enabling aspects are an understanding of the impact of food insecurity, the resources needed to address it and an insight in the associated costs, beneficiaries’ preferences and lead times. In response to that, the F4S is currently:

  • Developing an impact-based probabilistic food insecurity forecasting model using Machine Learning algorithms and datasets of food insecurity drivers;
  • Collecting local evidence on food insecurity triggers and information on individual preferences on key design elements of cash transfer mechanisms through surveys and choice experiments;
  • Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different cash transfer mechanisms.

This PICO presentation seeks to share lessons learnt and preliminary results on the development of triggers for enabling early action against the first signs of food insecurity in Eastern Africa. It presents key results obtained through surveys and choice experiments regarding local knowledge in association with food insecurity and aid design. Furthermore, it presents the potential cost-effectiveness and advantages of acting based on forecasts.

How to cite: van den Homberg, M., Guimarães Nobre, G., and Bolton, E.: Forecast based action: developing triggers for preventing food insecurity in Eastern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19891, 2020.

EGU2020-15190 | Displays | ITS1.4/HS4.8

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices on extreme heat: Insights from outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam

Steffen Lohrey, Melissa Chua, Jerôme Faucet, and Jason Lee

Purpose: Extreme heat threatens poor urban populations, and particularly those who are economically forced to work in the outdoors and hot environments. Thus, the Vietnamese Red Cross, with technical support from the German Red Cross, is implementing a Forecast-based Financing project to assist vulnerable population groups in urban areas before and during heatwaves. In order to inform this humanitarian project on choosing appropriate early actions, this research investigates empirical evidence on heat vulnerability using data from a “Knowledge Attitudes Practices” (KAP) survey conducted in 2018 among outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methods: We analyze the outcome of the KAP survey, which comprised 1027 respondents classified into four different occupation groups. Key questions comprised respondents’ self-reported economic and health situation, impacts from past heatwaves, as well as on knowledge about measures reducing health impacts from extreme heat. We first use descriptive statistics to assess the basic properties of the surveyed population groups. We then use a principal component analysis to identify properties that best captured the variability of responses and to identify sub-groups.

Results: The different occupation groups surveyed (builders, vendors, bikers) showed distinctively different properties, not only in mean age (28 year, 45 years and 43 years respectively), but also in their knowledge about heat-health symptoms and their access to night-time air-conditioning (builders: only 14% compared to 42% for bikers). Air-conditioning access did not correlate with reported income.  Builders knew considerably less about heat risk than other groups, but also reported fewer perceived symptoms. The three most common health symptoms reported were tiredness, sweating and thirst, with 22% of respondents having sought medical advice because of heat-related symptoms. Income reduction during heat events was reported by 48% of respondents. The vast majority of respondents have reported to increase drinking (89%) or to remain in shaded areas (87%). Most respondents (76%) could access and understand weather forecasts and early warnings.

Conclusion: Our data and analysis highlight how different occupation groups of outdoor workers in Hanoi vary in their socio-economic properties and their vulnerability to extreme heat. These insights into different groups can be used to direct the implementation of early actions for anticipatory humanitarian assistance before and during heatwaves.

How to cite: Lohrey, S., Chua, M., Faucet, J., and Lee, J.: Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices on extreme heat: Insights from outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-15190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15190, 2020.

Tropical cyclones could cause large casualties and economic loss in coastal area of China. It is of great importance to develop a method that can provide pre-event rapid loss assessment in a timely manner prior to the landing of a tropical cyclone. In this study, a pre-event tropical cyclone disaster loss assessment method based on similar tropical cyclone retrieval with multiple hazard indicators is proposed. Multiple indicators include tropical cyclone location, maximum wind speed, central pressure, radius of maximum wind, forward speed, Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), maximum storm surge, and maximum significant wave height. Firstly, the track similarity is measured by similarity deviation considering only the locations of tropical cyclone tracks. Secondly, the intensity similarity is measured by best similarity coefficient using central pressure, radius of maximum wind, maximum wind speed, moving speed, wind, storm surge, and wave intensity indices. Then, the potential loss of current tropical cyclone is assessed based on the retrieved similar tropical cyclones loss. Taking tropical cyclone Utor (2013) that affected China as an example, the potential loss is predicted according to the five most similar historical tropical cyclones which are retrieved from all the historical tropical cyclones. The method is flexible for rapid disaster loss assessment since it provides a relatively satisfactory result based on two scenarios of input dataset availability.

How to cite: Li, J.: Potential Tropical Cyclone Disaster Loss Assessment based on Multiple Hazard Indicators, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12337, 2020.

How Earthquake Early Warning Systems can affect scientist’s liability? International perspective for domestic questions.

Early Warning Systems (EWS) represent a technical-scientific challenge aimed at improving the chance of surviving of the population exposed to the effects of dangerous natural events. This improvement must necessarily face great difficulties in the application fields, because EWS may turn into serious responsibilities for people involved as scientists and engineers.

In this complex scenario is necessary to consider the differences among EWS (e.g. meteo, tsunami, earthquake) and their capability of predicting and avoiding the consequences of damaging events.

The development of EWS in Italy is not homogenous.

Some of these systems, such as Earthquake EWS (EEWS), are in a testing phase and we really need to learn a lot from the comparison with other Countries that have been adopting these solutions for years.

This recognition is very important, because the tragic and deadly events of the L'Aquila earthquake, the landslide in Sarno, and the recent eruption of Stromboli volcano have taught us that the relationship between science and law in Italy is really difficult.

So, before entering in the operative phase of the EEWS is necessary to start from a recognition of the international and national legislative and jurisprudential frameworks that supports the assessment of criminal and civil liability in the event of a “wrong” technical-scientific response, unable to decrease the consequences for people and infrastructures.

The future application of EEWS in our Country must be supported by a study and research of solutions that allow scientists and engineers to operate with more awareness and less fear of the consequences of this not renounceable progress.

In this framework, the different roles of those involved in the development and dissemination of EEWS are also relevant: the responsibilities of scientists developing the tools are not the same as those of technical operators who are called upon to disseminate the alert.

In all these cases, however, the offer of an EEW service represents a promise to the population to face the harmful consequences of certain natural and disastrous events.

This promise certainly creates a legitimate expectation that, where betrayed, can give rise to criminal and civil liability for adverse events (manslaughter, negligence, unintentional disaster etc.).

Population, however, should not only expect to receive a correct alarm but must be put in the condition to understand the uncertainties involved in rapid estimates, to be prepared to face the risk, and to react in the right ways.

How to cite: Valbonesi, C.: How Earthquake Early Warning Systems can affect scientist’s liability? International perspective for domestic questions., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11104, 2020.

ITS1.5/NH9.21 – Resilience to natural hazards: assessments, frameworks and tools

EGU2020-12023 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21 | Highlight

The Next Generation Drought Index Project

Daniel Osgood and Markus Enenkel and the Daniel E Osgood

There is ample evidence about the added-value of anticipatory financing mechanism to mitigate the impact of extreme droughts on the livelihoods of vulnerable communities. Various projects have tried to optimize parametric insurance via different methods, resulting in useful lessons learnt for both macro- and micro-level insurance. In parallel, novel satellite-derived sources of information, such as soil moisture or evaporative stress, have become available to monitor key variables of the hydrological cycle and strengthen the drought narrative via cross-validation.  The Next Generation Drought Index project was funded by the World Bank to develop a generic framework and related technical toolbox that allows decision-makers to understand every step of index design, calibration and validation. An interactive dashboard is linked directly to different data sources, the outputs of financial risk models and socioeconomic information to link climate hazard and impact information. Collaboration partners range from African Risk Capacity to the United Nations World Food Programme, the START Network, the World Bank’s Global Index Insurance Facility and the European Space Agency. The overall goal is to reduce basis risk without creating an analytical black box as well as to identify and use ‘low hanging fruits’, such as the detection of early season moisture deficits via remote sensing. The finding from Senegal suggest that the effectiveness of insurance might be improved through client centered design through participatory/crowdsourced processes, a suite of advanced satellite data and models, available government/institutional data and  structured decision tree processes based on key performance indicators.

How to cite: Osgood, D. and Enenkel, M. and the Daniel E Osgood: The Next Generation Drought Index Project, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12023, 2020.

EGU2020-20976 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

Our Coastal Futures: pathways to sustainable development

Robert Weiss, Valerie Cummins, Heath Kelsey, Sebastian Ferse, Anja Scheffers, Donald Forbes, and Bruce Glavovic

How to cite: Weiss, R., Cummins, V., Kelsey, H., Ferse, S., Scheffers, A., Forbes, D., and Glavovic, B.: Our Coastal Futures: pathways to sustainable development, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20976, 2020.

EGU2020-3934 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

Flood resilience measurement for communities: data for science and practice

Michael Szoenyi, Finn Laurien, and Adriana Keating

Given the increased attention put on strengthening disaster resilience, there is a growing need to invest in its measurement and the overall accountability of resilience strengthening initiatives. There is a major gap in evidence about what actually makes communities more resilient when an event occurs, because there are no empirically validated measures of disaster resilience. Similarly, an effort to identify operational indicators has gained some traction only more recently. The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) framework and associated, fully operational, integrated tool takes a systems-thinking, holistic approach to serve the dual goals of generating data on the determinants of community flood resilience, and providing decision-support for on-the-ground investment. The FRMC framework measures “sources of resilience” before a flood happens and looks at the post-flood impacts afterwards. It is built around the notion of five types of capital (the 5Cs: human, social, physical, natural, and financial) and the 4Rs of a resilient system (robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity). The sources of resilience are graded based on Zurich’s Risk Engineering Technical Grading Standard. Results are displayed according to the 5Cs and 4Rs, the disaster risk management (DRM) cycle, themes and context level, to give the approach further flexibility and accessibility.

The Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance (ZFRA) has identified the measurement of resilience as a valuable ingredient in building community flood resilience. In the first application phase (2013-2018), we measured flood resilience in 118 communities across nine countries, building on responses at household and community levels. Continuing this endeavor in the second phase (2018 – 2023) will allow us to enrich the understanding of community flood resilience and to extend this unique data set.

We find that at the community level, the FRMC enables users to track community progress on resilience over time in a standardized way. It thus provides vital information for the decision-making process in terms of prioritizing the resilience-building measures most needed by the community. At community and higher decision-making levels, measuring resilience also provides a basis for improving the design of innovative investment programs to strengthen disaster resilience.

By exploring data across multiple communities (facing different flood types and with very different socioeconomic and political contexts), we can generate evidence with respect to which characteristics contribute most to community disaster resilience before an event strikes. This contributes to meeting the challenge of demonstrating that the work we do has the desired impact – that it actually builds resilience. Our findings suggest that stronger interactions between community functions induce co-benefits for community development.

How to cite: Szoenyi, M., Laurien, F., and Keating, A.: Flood resilience measurement for communities: data for science and practice, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3934, 2020.

EGU2020-1807 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

Messy Maps: Qualitative GIS for Urban Flood Resilience

Faith Taylor, James Millington, Ezekiel Jacob, Bruce Malamud, and Mark Pelling

We present a methodology to include qualitative aspects of flood resilience such as emotion, social connections and experience into urban planning using qualitative GIS. The geographic information system (GIS) has become ubiquitous in urban planning and disaster risk reduction, but often results in resilience being conceptualised and deployed in highly technocratic and quantitative ways. Yet in the urban Global South, where the rate of informal growth often outstrips our ability to collect spatial data, the knowledge infrastructures used for resilience planning leave little room for participation and consideration of local experience. This presentation outlines two interlinked projects (‘Why we Disagree about Resilience’ and the follow-on ‘Expressive Mapping of Resilient Futures’) experimenting with qualitative GIS methodologies to map resilience as defined by informal settlement residents. We show examples from two case study cities, Nairobi (Kenya) and Cape Town (South Africa), with applicability across the urban Global South. Four map layers were generated: (i) flood footprints showing the detailed spatial knowledge of floods generated by locals; (ii) georeferenced, narrated 360° StorySpheres capturing differing perspectives about a space; (iii) spatial social network maps showing residents connections to formal and informal actors before and during floods; (iv) multimedia pop-ups communicating contextual details missing from traditional GIS maps. We show that for informal settlements, many locations and aspects of resilience have vague or imprecise spatial locations, and that placing markers on a map makes them visible in ways that planners can begin to engage with. We discuss challenges such as privacy, legacy and participation. Although challenges remain, we found openness by city-level actors to use qualitative forms of evidence, and that the contextual detail aided their retention and understanding of resilience. The ‘messy’ maps we present here illustrate that in the era of big data and metrics, there is a space for qualitative understanding of resilience, and that existing knowledge and spatial data infrastructures have potential to be more inclusive and holistic.

How to cite: Taylor, F., Millington, J., Jacob, E., Malamud, B., and Pelling, M.: Messy Maps: Qualitative GIS for Urban Flood Resilience , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1807, 2020.

EGU2020-21602 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

The Flood Resilience Dashboard

Ian McCallum, Stefan Velev, Finn Laurien, Reinhard Mechler, Adriana Keating, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, and Michael Szoenyi

The purpose of the “Flood Resilience Dashboard” is to put geo-spatial flood resilience data into the hands of practitioners. The idea is to provide an intuitive platform that combines as much open, peer-reviewed flood resilience related spatial data as possible with available related spatial data from the Flood Resilience Alliance, which in turn can be used to inform decisions. This data will include among others the Zurich Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) data, Vulnerability Capacity Assessment (VCA) maps, remote sensing derived information on flooding and other biophysical datasets (e.g. forest cover, water extent), modelled risk information, satellite imagery (e.g. night-time lights), crowdsourced data and more. 

The Dashboard will, as much as possible, lower the entry barrier for non-technical users, providing a simple login experience for the users. Users should be able to explore the Dashboard using standard web map navigation tools. The various charts and tables on the Dashboard dynamically refresh as features on the map are selected or the map extent is changed. No previous experience or understanding of geo-spatial data is required, beyond basic web-map navigation.

How to cite: McCallum, I., Velev, S., Laurien, F., Mechler, R., Keating, A., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., and Szoenyi, M.: The Flood Resilience Dashboard, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21602, 2020.

      Adaptation is an indispensable part of climate change impact, and risk assessment plays an important role between data arrangement and strategy planning. This study aims at developing a framework from risk assessment to information presentation, then applying to risk communication. This framework refers to Climate Risk Template, defining risk as to the integration of hazard, exposure and sensitivity; simultaneously, Climate Risk Template is an auxiliary tool basing on Climate Change Adaptation Six Steps(CCA6Steps), which is the systematic procedure to analyze risk and plan adaptation pathway. This study emphasized on landslide disaster as the key issue and selected community residents, roads as the protected targets. First of all, collate stimulated results of landslide potential evaluation and literature, cases, questionnaires which were probed into exposure and sensitivity. Next, establish a factors list of climate risk and giving weights to correlation factors by Entropy Method. Finally, use risk matrix to evaluate the risk value and present the results of risk assessment by infographic. For essentially helping on risk communication, this study proposes a framework to make the general public understand the causes of regional disaster risk and assists executive units to implement climate risk assessment and adaptation pathway planning. Eventually, the study will innovate a prototype of using this framework; therefore, users just have to write down the key issue, protected target and choose the composition factors of risk, then they can accomplish climate risk assessment and generate climate risk infographic by themselves.

Keywords: Climate risk template, Climate risk assessment, Risk communication, infographic

How to cite: Liu, C. C. and Tung, C. P.: The Framework for Generating Climate Risk Infographic and Applying to Risk Communication, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6355, 2020.

EGU2020-5868 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

Review, mathematical representation and classification of preventive drought management measures

ana paez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine

In the context of proactive drought management plans, a key element consists of analyzing, selecting and allocating measures aimed at increasing resistance to droughts and reducing its potential impacts on the society, environment and economy. Currently, these measures, known as preventive drought management measures (Fatulová et al., 2015), are embedded within measures for flood management, catchment management plans, rural development plans, among others. This situation raises two issues. Firstly, information about potential preventive drought management measures (PDMM) is commonly fragmented and it is not a trivial task find or select measures that could be implemented as PDDM. Secondly, even though the same measure can be implemented from different management perspectives (Flood management, land degradation management, catchment management, rural development plans,) its applicability, advantages and limitations, may change according to the management perspective.

Considering the above, this study attempts to provide a review of PDMM that includes: measure description, applicability, limitations, mathematical representation (For further implementation in modelling systems) and classification, from a drought management perspective. It is worth to mention that this study is focused on hydrologically based measures, applicable for agricultural and hydrological drought management.

The research methodology is divided in three phases. The first phase consists of identifying drivers that trigger and/or enhance agricultural and hydrological droughts. This analysis is carried out from a hydrological angle, where land surface processes and human activities are potential drivers agricultural and hydrological droughts (Van Loon et al., 2016). The second phase examines an extensive list of technical documents, books, books sections, journal articles and case studies in order to identify those measures that could manage or mitigate the impact of potential drivers of agricultural and hydrological droughts. In this phase, PDMM are described in terms of applicability, advantages, limitations and mathematical representation for further implementation in modelling systems. Based on the analysis of the PDMM, the third phase of the study focusses on their classification, into three categories: nature-based solutions, grey infrastructure and changes in human water consumption

How to cite: paez, A., Corzo, G., and Solomatine, D.: Review, mathematical representation and classification of preventive drought management measures, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5868, 2020.

EGU2020-19990 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21 | Highlight

Generating multiple resilience dividends from managing unnatural disasters. Opportunities for measurement and policy.

Reinhard Mechler and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Despite solid evidence regarding the large benefits of reducing disaster risk, it has remained difficult to motivate sustained investment into disaster risk reduction and resilience. Recently, international policy debate has started to emphasize the need for focusing DRR investment toward actions that generate multiple dividends, including reducing loss of lives and livelihoods, unlocking development, and creating development co-benefits. We examine whether available and innovative decision support tools are fit-for-purpose. Focusing on the Asia region, we identify evidence of multiple dividends crafted using expert-based methods, such as cost–benefit analysis for selecting and evaluating “hard resilience-type” interventions. Given a rising demand for “softer” and systemic DRR investments in projects and programs, participatory decision support tools have become increasingly relevant. As one set of tools, resilience capacity (capital) measurement approaches may be used to support actions and decisions throughout all stages of the project cycle. Measuring capacity for resilience dividends, not outcome, such tools can serve as participatory decision support for organizations working at community and other levels for scoping out how development and disaster risk interact, as well as for supporting the co-generation of multiple resilience dividend-type solutions with those at risk.

How to cite: Mechler, R. and Hochrainer-Stigler, S.: Generating multiple resilience dividends from managing unnatural disasters. Opportunities for measurement and policy., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19990, 2020.

In recent years, the impact of climate change has caused critical risks to urban and rural systems, how to mitigate the damage caused by extreme climate events has become a topic of considerable concern in various countries in recent years. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) mentioned in the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (Sendai Framework) that improving community resilience will help to deal with the harm caused by climate change. However, most of the previous research on resilience have only focused solely on urban or rural only, and have failed to clearly identify the differences in resilience between urban and rural areas. In fact, if we can understand the difference in resilience between urban and rural in the face of climate change, it will provide planners with better planning strategies or resource allocation. Based on this, the study first developed the resilience index through literature review, and then filtered and screened the index through Principle Component Analysis (PCA). After that, the resilience index was applied to empirical areas, and the spatial correlation of resilience was explored through Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). Finally, the binary logistic regression is used to analyze the difference in resilience of urban or rural under climate change.

How to cite: Pai, S.-E. and Chang, H.-S.: A Study on the Difference of Urban and Rural Resilience under Climate Change- A Case Study of Chiayi County, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2488, 2020.

EGU2020-4852 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

Flood resilience and indirect impacts in art cities

Chiara Arrighi and Fabio Castelli

Resilience is commonly defined as the ability to recover from a shock and quickly restore antecedent conditions. Although it is widely recognized as crucial to reduce adverse impacts and it is gaining importance at global level, resilience to most natural hazards is difficult to measure and predict, as both direct and indirect impacts matter. In this work the mutual connection between flood resilience and indirect flood impacts is investigated through a mathematical model which describes the temporal evolution of the state of the system after an urban inundation event. The inputs to the resilience model are i) a hydraulic model simulating the flood hazard; ii) a vulnerability and recovery model estimating the physical damage to cultural heritage and the temporal persistence of direct and indirect consequences. The method is applied to the historic district of Florence (Italy) affected by a severe flood in 1966. The variables selected as proxies of the state of the system are the number of monuments open to the public after the flood and the number of visitors, which represent a measure of indirect social and economic impacts on the city. The model results show that the resilience model helps the quantification of indirect impacts due to the loss of accessibility of cultural heritage and allows evaluating the effectiveness of prevention measures.

Acknowledgments

Authors were beneficiary of funding by Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR) under the PRIN 2015 programme with the Project MICHe “Mitigating the impacts of natural hazards on cultural heritage sites, structures and artefacts”

How to cite: Arrighi, C. and Castelli, F.: Flood resilience and indirect impacts in art cities, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4852, 2020.

The Lombok earthquake of August 2018 killed approximately 555, injured 1400, and displaced 353.000 people. With Indonesia being vulnerable to natural disaster due to its geographic location, events like these are not uncommon. However, this event was significantly different from the majority of disasters in the Indonesian archipelago. The difference pertains to how the communities researched in this thesis, coped with the adversity they had experienced and how they showed resilience in a unique way.

A disaster drastically ushers in a liminal period wherein its victims are forced to rethink certain aspects of social life, give meaning to what has happened, and determine how to rebuild society sustainably.

This thesis argues that going back to a pre-disaster state of society is not possible, due to the lived experiences during the disaster and aftermath. Instead of going back, the culture of response of the Indonesian government (and the NGOs and communities) on which this thesis is focused, started a process towards Dyer’s Phoenix Effect.

This thesis explores the cultural, social, and organizational changes in post-disaster Lombok, which make the occurrence of the Phoenix Effect likely. (1) Cultural changes constitute the explanations for the earthquake from different religious perspectives and the resurgence of traditionally embedded building strategies. (2) Social changes equate to the reinvention of gotong royong from being a state-philosophy to an embedded set of mutual help. (3) Organizational changes, signify biopolitics of disaster management of the Indonesian government, the role of NGOs, and the emergence of peoples’ initiatives in order to become more resilient.

This thesis concludes that the possibility of the Phoenix Effect is likely, if the involved communities can maintain their cultural, organizational, and social changes sustainably.

How to cite: Koopman, J.: From Ashes to Fire: The Possibilities of the Phoenix Effect in Post-Disaster Lombok, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10315, 2020.

EGU2020-14406 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

The impact of hurricanes on the island of Saint-Martin (French West Indies) from 1954 to 2017: how are our society changes?

Kelly Pasquon, Gwenaël Jouannic, Julien Gargani, Chloé Tran Duc Minh, and Denis Crozier

Natural disasters lead to many victims and major damage in France and around the world. In 2017, Hurricane Irma hit the French islands of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy (West Indies), killing 11 people and causing more than €2 billion in insured damage. Ranked 5 in category on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with average winds of 287 km/h, this hurricane highlighted the vulnerability of our society to this type of phenomenon.

One can question the inability of society to face up to and recover from the consequences of these events. In this sense, this work questions the adaptation of the island of Saint-Martin to hurricanes and its entire environment. We have chosen to focus on the evolution of this island over 65 years: from 1954 to 2017 (before Hurricane Irma). We mainly used aerial images of IGN (Institut National de l’Information Géographique et Forestière) available regularly since 1947. Among the elements that have served us to characterize this evolution, we have focused on land use (buildings, infrastructure and anthropization) and demographics.

We show, in this study, that between 1954 and 2017 (before Hurricane Irma), Saint Martin had to adapt to numerous constraints, some of which were far more important than hurricanes. In 65 years, the population density of the French part of Saint Martin increased from 75 to 668 inhab/km². The majority of this increase occurred in a five year period following the Pons law of 1986 which favoured tax breaks for real estate investment. More than 12 000 buildings have been built in Saint Martin to welcome the new inhabitants of the island as well as tourists. Many neighbourhoods experienced significant growth which started in the late 80's. However we observe differences in urban planning, a result of social and territorial segregation which exists on the island. On the one hand, there are private residences in affluent neighbourhoods, on the other hand working-class neighbourhoods with vulnerable dwellings. The effect of hurricanes on this society, which has been highly unequal since the 1960's up to the 1980's, is to reinforce inequalities. The fragile habitats of the poorest populations have been more deeply affected than the richest parts of the population which have been financially supported for reconstruction.

How to cite: Pasquon, K., Jouannic, G., Gargani, J., Tran Duc Minh, C., and Crozier, D.: The impact of hurricanes on the island of Saint-Martin (French West Indies) from 1954 to 2017: how are our society changes?, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-14406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-14406, 2020.

EGU2020-11885 | Displays | ITS1.5/NH9.21

Improving crop water use in West Africa in the context of climate change

Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, Nick van de Giesen, Frank Ohene Annor, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis

Africa’s population is growing fast and is expected to double by 2050, meaning the food production must follow the cadence in order to meet the demand. However, one of the major challenges of agriculture in Africa is productivity (World Bank, 2009; IFRI, 2016). For instance, more than 40 million hectares of farmland were dedicated to maize in Africa in 2017 (approx. 20% of world total maize farms), but only 7.4% of the total world maize production came from the African continent (FAO, 2017). This shows the poor productivity which has its causes rooted in lack of good climate and weather information, slow technology uptake and financial support for farmers. In West Africa, where more than 70% of crop production is rain-fed, millions of farmers depend on rainfall, yet the region is one of the most vulnerable and least monitored in terms of climate change and rainfall variability. With a high uncertainty of future climate conditions in the region, one must foresee the big challenges ahead: farmers will be exposed to a lot of damages and losses leading to food insecurity resulting in famine and poverty if measures are not put in place to improve productivity. This study aims at addressing low productivity in agriculture by providing farmers with the right moment to start farming in order to improve efficiency and productivity of crop water use. By analyzing yield response to water availability of specific crops using AquaCrop, the Food and Agriculture Organization crop growth model, we investigate the crop water productivity variability throughout the rainy season and come up with recommendations that help optimize rainfall water use and maximize crop yield.

How to cite: Agoungbome, S. M. D., van de Giesen, N., Annor, F. O., and ten Veldhuis, M.-C.: Improving crop water use in West Africa in the context of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11885, 2020.

ITS1.7/SM3.5 – International Monitoring System and On-site Verification for the CTBT, disaster risk reduction and Earth sciences

EGU2020-12289 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Hydroacoustic measurements of the 2004 submarine eruption near Nightingale Island, Tristan da Cunha

Dirk Metz, Ingo Grevemeyer, Marion Jegen, Wolfram Geissler, and Julien Vergoz

Little is known about active volcanism in the remote regions of the global ocean. Here, we resort to long‐range acoustic measurements to study the July/August 2004 eruption at Isolde, a submarine volcanic cone in the Tristan da Cunha archipelago, South Atlantic Ocean. Underwater sound phases associated with the event were recorded as far as Cape Leeuwin, Western Australia, where a bottom-moored hydrophone array is operated as part of the International Monitoring System (IMS). IMS hydrophone data in combination with local seismic observations suggest that the center of activity is located east of Nightingale Island, where a recent seafloor mapping campaign aboard R/V Maria S Merian (MSM20/2) has revealed a previously unknown, potentially newly formed stratocone. Transmission loss modeling via the parabolic equation approach indicates that low-frequency sound phases travel at shallow depths near and within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, thereby avoiding bathymetric interference along the 10,265 km source-receiver path. Our study highlights the potential of the IMS network for the detection and study of future eruptions both at Isolde and elsewhere. Implications for test-ban treaty monitoring and volcano early warning will be discussed.

How to cite: Metz, D., Grevemeyer, I., Jegen, M., Geissler, W., and Vergoz, J.: Hydroacoustic measurements of the 2004 submarine eruption near Nightingale Island, Tristan da Cunha , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12289, 2020.

EGU2020-5481 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Analysis of CTBT IMS Hydroacoustic hydrophone station underwater system electronics calibration sequences

Mario Zampolli, Georgios Haralabus, Jerry Stanley, and Peter Nielsen

The end-to-end calibration from the hydrophone ceramic element input to the digitizer output of CTBT IMS Hydroacoustic (HA) hydrophone stations is measured in a laboratory environment before deployment. After the hydrophones are deployed permanently with the Underwater System (UWS) hydrophone triplets, the response of the digitizer component can be measured by activating remotely a relay which excludes the hydrophone ceramic, preamplifier and riser cable, and feeds a pre-stored known waveform into the digitizer circuit via a digital-to-analogue converter. Analysis of these underwater calibration sequences makes it possible to verify the stability of the digitizer response over time and obtain useful information for investigations which require an accurate knowledge of the system response. Results are presented showing the stability of the UWS electronics response over time and one case, pertaining to the H10S triplet of HA10 Ascension Island, where changes in the calibration response appeared after the onset of electronic noise in one hydrophone channel with cross-talk to the other two channels.

How to cite: Zampolli, M., Haralabus, G., Stanley, J., and Nielsen, P.: Analysis of CTBT IMS Hydroacoustic hydrophone station underwater system electronics calibration sequences, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5481, 2020.

Hydroacoustic activity of the submarine Monowai Volcanic Centre (MVC) is repeatedly observed at two distant triplet hydrophone stations, south of Juan Fernandez Islands (H03S, 9,159km) and north of Ascension Island (H10N, 15,823km). T-phase converted energy recorded at the broadband seismic station Rarotonga on Cook Island (RAR, 1,845km) is used as a reference for the cross-correlation analysis. A detailed processing scheme for the calculation of the daily cross-correlation functions (CCF) of the hydroacoustic and seismic data is provided. Preprocessing is essential to account for the non-identical measurements and sensitivities as well as the different sample rates. Further postprocessing by systematic data selection has to be applied before stacking CCFs in order to account for the non-continuous activity of the MVC source. Daily volcanic activity is determined for the period from 2006 until 2018 using the signal-to-noise ratio of the CCFs assuming sound propagation in the SOFAR channel. Monthly stacked CCFs with clear volcanic activity are used to study seasonal variations in sound propagation between the MVC and the hydrophone stations. In winter, however, a faster than expected signal is observed at H10N which is hypothesized to (partial) propagation through the formed sea ice along the path near Antarctica.

How to cite: Smets, P., Weemstra, K., and Evers, L.: Long-range hydroacoustic observations of the Monowai Volcanic Centre as a proxy for seasonal variations in sound propagation, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-18440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18440, 2020.

EGU2020-21819 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Long-term trend analysis of deep-ocean acoustic noise data

Sei-Him Cheong, Stephen P Robinson, Peter M Harris, Lian S Wang, and Valerie Livina

Underwater noise is recognised as a form of marine pollutant and there is evidence that over exposure to excessive levels of noise can have effects on the wellbeing of the marine ecosystem. Consequently, the variation in the ambient sound levels in the deep ocean has been the subject of a number of recent studies, with particular interest in the identification of long-term trends. We describe a statistical method for performing long-term trend analysis and uncertainty evaluation of the estimated trends from deep-ocean noise data. This study has been extended to include  measured data  from four monitoring stations located in the Indian (Cape Leeuwin & Diego Garcia), Pacific (Wake Island) and Southern Atlantic (Ascension Islands) Oceans over periods spanning between 8 to 15 years. The data were obtained from the hydro-acoustic monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). The monitoring stations provide information at a sampling frequency of 250 Hz, leading to very large datasets, and at acoustic frequencies up to 105 Hz.

The analysis method uses a flexible discrete model that incorporates terms that capture seasonal variations in the data together with a moving-average statistical model to describe the serial correlation of residual deviations. The trend analysis is applied to time series representing daily aggregated statistical levels for four frequency bands to obtain estimates for the change in sound pressure level (SPL) over the examined period with associated coverage intervals. The analysis demonstrates that there are statistically significant changes in the levels of deep-ocean noise over periods exceeding a decade. The main features of the approach include (a) using a functional model  with terms  that represent both long-term and seasonal behaviour of deep-ocean noise, (b) using a statistical model to capture the serial correlation of the residual deviations that are not explained by the functional model, (c) using daily aggregation intervals derived from 1-minute  sound pressure level averages, and (d) applying a non-parametric approach to validate the uncertainties of the trend estimates that avoids the need to make an assumption about the distribution of the residual deviations.

The obtained results show the long term trends vary differently at the four stations. It was observed that low frequency noise generally dominated the significant trends in these oceans. The relative differences between the various statistical levels are remarkably similar for all the frequency bands. Given the complexity of the acoustic environment, it is difficult to identify the main causes of these trends. Some possible explanations for the observed trends are discussed. It was however observed some stations are subjected to strong seasonal variation with a high degree of correlation with climatic factors such as sea surface temperature, Antarctic ice coverage and wind speed. The same seasonal effects is less pronounced in station located closer to the equator.

How to cite: Cheong, S.-H., Robinson, S. P., Harris, P. M., Wang, L. S., and Livina, V.: Long-term trend analysis of deep-ocean acoustic noise data, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21819, 2020.

EGU2020-4594 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Estimates of seismo-acoustic transfer functions relevant to CTBT IMS T-phase stations

Peter Nielsen, Mario Zampolli, Ronan Le Bras, Georgios Haralabus, Jeffry Stevens, and Jeffrey Hanson

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS) is a world-wide network of stations and laboratories designed to detect nuclear explosions underground, in the oceans and in the atmosphere. The IMS incorporates four technologies: seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound (collectively referred to as waveform technologies), and radionuclide (particulate and noble gas). The focus of this presentation is the hydroacoustic component of the IMS, which consists of 6 hydroacoustic stations employing hydrophones deployed in the oceans and 5 near-shore seismic stations, called T-phase stations, located on islands or continental coastal regions. The purpose of T-phase stations is to detect water-borne hydroacoustic pressure waves converted into seismic waves that propagate on the earth’s crust and are detected by land seismometers. However, the conversion process from in-water pressure to near-interface seismic waves is complex and strongly dependent on the properties of the local underwater and geological environment. To further understand this conversion process, state-of-the-art hybrid seismo-acoustic wave propagation models have been applied to simplified environments and to scenarios representative of the conditions encountered at IMS T-phase stations to compute broadband pressure time-series in the water and particle  velocity components on-land. Transfer functions from in-water pressure to on-land seismic particle velocity and vice versa were estimated both from modelling results and from real data acquired in locations where the hydrophones and (non-IMS) seismic stations were within 50-km distance. The presented results have been used to give a first assessment of the feasibility of characterizing the hydroacoustic phase of an in-water event by on-land seismic recordings at IMS T-phase stations, subject to limited a-priori environmental information and limiting factors, such as band-width and instrumental and/or environmental noise.

How to cite: Nielsen, P., Zampolli, M., Le Bras, R., Haralabus, G., Stevens, J., and Hanson, J.: Estimates of seismo-acoustic transfer functions relevant to CTBT IMS T-phase stations, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4594, 2020.

EGU2020-18451 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Seismically induced ground motions and source mechanism passively retrieved from remote infrasound detections

Shahar Shani-Kadmiel, Gil Averbuch, Pieter Smets, Jelle Assink, and Läslo Evers

The amplitude of ground motions caused by earthquakes and subsurface explosions generally decreases with distance from the epicenter. However, in the near-source region, other factors, e.g., near surface geology, topography, and the source radiation pattern, may significantly vary the amplitude of ground motions. Although source location and magnitude (or yield), can be rapidly determined using distant seismic stations, without a dense seismological network in the epicentral region, the ability to resolve such variations is limited.

Besides seismic waves, earthquakes and subsurface explosions generate infrasound, i.e., inaudible acoustic waves in the atmosphere. The mechanical ground motions from such sources, including the effects from the above mentioned factors, are encapsulated by the acoustic pressure perturbations over the source region. Due to the low frequency nature of infrasound and facilitated by waveguides in the atmosphere, such perturbations propagate over long ranges with limited attenuation and are detected at ground-based stations. In this work we demonstrate a method for resolving ground motions and the source mechanism from remotely detected infrasound. This is illustrated for the 2010 Mw 7.0 Port-au-Prince, Haiti earthquake, and the 6th and largest nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in 2017.

Such observations are made possible by: (1) An advanced array processing technique that enables the detection of coherent wavefronts, even when amplitudes are below the noise level, and (2) A backprojection technique that maps infrasound detections in time to their origin on the Earth's surface.

Infrasound measurements are conducted globally for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and together with regional infrasound networks allow for an unprecedented global coverage. This makes infrasound as an earthquake disaster mitigation technique feasible for the first time and contributes to the Treaty's verification capacity.

How to cite: Shani-Kadmiel, S., Averbuch, G., Smets, P., Assink, J., and Evers, L.: Seismically induced ground motions and source mechanism passively retrieved from remote infrasound detections, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-18451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18451, 2020.

EGU2020-17691 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

IDC Infrasound technology path to continuous improvement

Pierrick Mialle

The IDC advances its methods and continuously improves its automatic system for the infrasound technology. The IDC focuses on enhancing the automatic system for the identification of valid signals and the optimization of the network detection threshold by identifying ways to refine signal characterization methodology and association criteria. Alongside these efforts, the IDC and its partners also focuses on expanding the capabilities in NDC-in-a-Box (NiaB), which is a software package specifically aimed at the CTBTO user community, the National Data Centres (NDC).

An objective of this study is to illustrate the latest efforts by IDC to increase trust in its products, while continuing its infrasound specific effort on reducing the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the reviewed event bulletins. A number of ongoing projects at the IDC will be presented, such as: - improving the detection accuracy at the station processing stage by introducing the infrasound signal detection and interactive review software DTK-(G)PMCC (Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation) and by evaluating the performances of detection software; - development of the new generation of automatic waveform network processing software NET-VISA to pursue a lower ratio of false alarms over GA (Global Association) and a path for revisiting the historical IRED. The IDC identified a number of areas for improvement of its infrasound system, those will be shortly introduced.

How to cite: Mialle, P.: IDC Infrasound technology path to continuous improvement, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-17691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17691, 2020.

EGU2020-7047 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

A climatology of infrasound detections at Kerguelen Island

Olivier F.C. den Ouden, Jelle D. Assink, Pieter S.M. Smets, and Läslo G. Evers

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is in place for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Part of the IMS are 60 infrasound arrays, of which 51 currently provide real-time infrasound recordings from around the world. Those arrays play a central role in the characterization of the global infrasonic wavefield and localization of infrasound sources.

Power Spectral Density (PSD) estimates give insight into the noise levels per station and array. The IMS global low and high noise model curves have been determined in a study by Brown et al. [2014] using a distribution of computed PSDs. All the IMS infrasound arrays, except IS23, have been included in the determination of the atmospheric ambient noise curves. IS23 is located at Kerguelen Island and exist of 15 elements that have been divided into five 100 meter aperture triplets arrays. The array is located at one of the noisiest locations in the world, due to the high wind conditions that exist year-round. The resulting high noise floor appears to hamper infrasound detection at this island array.

In this work, the effects of meteorological, oceanographic, and topographical conditions on the infrasound recordings at IS23 are studied. Five years of infrasound data is analyzed, as recorded by IS23, by using various processing techniques. Contributions within different frequency bands are evaluated. The infrasound detections are explained in terms of the stratospheric winds and ocean wave activity. Understanding and characterization of the low-frequency recordings of IS23 are of importance for successfully including this array for verification of the CTBT.

How to cite: den Ouden, O. F. C., Assink, J. D., Smets, P. S. M., and Evers, L. G.: A climatology of infrasound detections at Kerguelen Island, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7047, 2020.

EGU2020-21841 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Test bench development dedicated to microbarometers run-in

Emeline Guilbert and Anthony Hue

Seismo Wave Company is ongoing improving metrological processes and quality surveys to guarantee the best Infrasound sensors technology. In accordance with our quality approach, a running-in step for infrasound sensors has been investigated and implemented. Once the metrology process is completed (acoustical and electrical calibration, self-noise measurement), objective is to keep monitoring on sensitivity of MB3a sensors during several days, using the in-situ electrical calibration capability. For this purpose, a new bench has been designed and characterized in our laboratory. Different sensitivity assessment methods have been compared. Testing conditions, bench design, methodology and results are laid out in this poster.

How to cite: Guilbert, E. and Hue, A.: Test bench development dedicated to microbarometers run-in, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21841, 2020.

EGU2020-6415 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Study of a high activity eruption sequence of Kadovar volcano, Papua New Guinea, using data recorded by the CTBT International Monitoring System

Hiroyuki Matsumoto, Mario Zampolli, Georgios Haralabus, Jerry Stanley, James Robertson, and Nurcan Meral Özel

The analysis of hydroacoustic signals originating from marine volcanic activity recorded by a remote hydroacoustic (HA) station, HA11 at Wake Island, of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS) is presented in this study. The events studied pertain to an eruption series at Kadovar Island, Papua New Guinea during the period January to February 2018. Local visual observations determined that the Kadovar volcano began to erupt at the summit of the island, and then created new vent spots near the coast. The events included the collapse of a lava dome on 9 February 2018. Directions-of-arrivals of the hydroacoustic signals detected at HA11 were evaluated using a cross-correlation technique, this allowed discrimination between hydroacoustics signals originating from the Kadovar volcanic activity and other numerous hydroacoustic signals generated by general seismic activity in the Pacific. Discrimination between volcanic activity and seismicity was achieved by examining the time-frequency characteristics of the hydroacoustic signals, i.e. associating short duration broadband bursts with volcanic eruptions, in line with criteria generally applied for such events. Episodes of high volcanic activity with as many as 80 detections per hour were identified on two occasions, separated by a one-month period of relative quiet. Some of the hydroacoustic signals were characterized by broadband frequency content and high received levels (i.e. ca. 30 dB higher than the ocean microseismic background). It was found that corresponding non-hydroacoustic signals could not be identified by other regional IMS stations, this providing an indication of the likely submarine origin of these events. Long duration bursts recorded on the day when the lava dome collapsed have been identified and characterized in time-frequency space. This study provides a further example of the added value of CTBT IMS hydroacoustic station remote monitoring of marine volcanic events.

How to cite: Matsumoto, H., Zampolli, M., Haralabus, G., Stanley, J., Robertson, J., and Meral Özel, N.: Study of a high activity eruption sequence of Kadovar volcano, Papua New Guinea, using data recorded by the CTBT International Monitoring System, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6415, 2020.

EGU2020-7367 * | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5 | Highlight

NEMO - The NEar real-time MOnitoring system for bright fireballs

Theresa Ott, Esther Drolshagen, Detlef Koschny, Gerhard Drolshagen, Christoph Pilger, Pierrick Mialle, Jeremie Vaubaillon, and Björn Poppe

Fireballs are very bright meteors with magnitudes of at least -4. They can spark a lot of public interest. Especially, if they can be seen during daytime over populous areas. Social Media allows us to be informed about almost everything, worldwide, and in all areas of life in real-time. In the age of intensive use of these media, information is freely available seconds after the sighting of a fireball.

This is the basis of the alert system which is part of NEMO, the NEar real-time MOnitoring system, for bright fireballs. It uses Social Media, mainly Twitter, to be informed about a fireball event in near real-time. In addition, the system accesses various data sources to collect further information about the detected fireballs. The sources range from meteor networks, the data from weather satellites or lightning detectors to the infrasound data of the IMS (International Monitoring System) operated by the CTBTO (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation).

Since large meteoroids or asteroids can be detected by these infrasound sensors when they enter the Earth's atmosphere, this network provides the possibility to detect fireballs worldwide and during day and night. From the infrasound data the energy of the object that caused the fireball can be determined and hence, its size and mass can be calculated. By combining all available information about the fireball from different data sources the amount of scientific knowledge about the event can be maximized.

NEMO was under development for about 2.5 years. Since the beginning of the year the system is in operation at the European Space Agency, as part of its Space Safety Programme. In this presentation we will give an overview about NEMO, its working principle and its relation to the IMS.

How to cite: Ott, T., Drolshagen, E., Koschny, D., Drolshagen, G., Pilger, C., Mialle, P., Vaubaillon, J., and Poppe, B.: NEMO - The NEar real-time MOnitoring system for bright fireballs, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7367, 2020.

EGU2020-9926 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

IDC events related to volcanic activity at Kamchatka Peninsula

Paulina Bittner, Jane Gore, David Applbaum, Aaron Jimenez, Marcela Villarroel, and Pierrick Mialle

International Monitoring System (IMS) is designed to detect and locate nuclear test explosions as part of Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification regime. This network can be also used for civil applications, such as the remote monitoring of volcanic activity.

Events related to volcanic eruptions, which are listed in the International Data Centre (IDC) bulletins, are typically detected by infrasound stations of the IMS network. Infrasound station IS44 and primary seismic station PS36 are situated in Kamchatka, Russian Federation, in the vicinity of several active volcanoes. These two stations recorded seismo-acoustic events generated by volcanic eruptions. In addition to atmospheric events, the IMS network has the potential of detecting underwater volcanic activity. Under favourable conditions, the hydroacoustic stations located in the Pacific Ocean and PS36 may detect underwater events close to the shore of Kamchatka Peninsula.

The aim of this presentation is to show examples of volcanic eruptions at Kamchatka Peninsula recorded by the IMS network. Supplementary information obtained by other observing networks can be found in reports issued by Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) or Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC). Such information can be compared with events listed in IDC bulletins.

How to cite: Bittner, P., Gore, J., Applbaum, D., Jimenez, A., Villarroel, M., and Mialle, P.: IDC events related to volcanic activity at Kamchatka Peninsula , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-9926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9926, 2020.

The key objectives of a ground-based geophysical mapping during an On-site Inspection are to detect, locate and characterize the zones of rock damage associated with an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). The cavity, rubble zone and fracturized rock matrix are also common features in the close vicinity of a cave of karstic origin. The natural cavities are mainly developed within the weakest zones of the rock matrix. The connatural features with an UNE are important but the thermal and pressure effects are lacking in the case of natural origin. However, the similarities may justify the efforts to investigate the cavern and its surroundings by geophysical methods.

 

The oval shaped cavern with a diameter of 28 m located 70 m below the surface was discovered within a clay mine in N-Hungary. The deep basement is composed of Triassic limestone, the cavern is located in the overlying Oligocene sandstone formation. As a result of hydrothermal activity in the Pleistocene a cave formed in the limestone which may have collapsed over time. The opening of the deep part of the cave influenced the overlying sandstone formation but the collapse did not reach the surface.

 

As a consequence of a UNE the cracks and open fissures could provide a pathway for the radioactive gas to find its way near to the surface. The detection of these fracturized zones require the highest possible resolution of the seismic imaging of the subsurface. Therefore, we made a 2D survey above the cavern site and determined that the optimal method is to generate and detect horizontally polarized (SH) waves. The electro-mechanically driven vibrator has provided a bandwidth ranging from 5 to 200 Hz which can be extended up to 400 Hz. The use of the Lightning type vibrator has broadened the seismic bandwidth achieving the maximum penetration of 250 m with substantial increase of the resolution.

The joint interpretation of the seismic and geoelectric tomographic results with the SH- wave reflection section has provided a clear pattern of the tectonized rock matrix around the cavern.

 

How to cite: Labak, P., Kovacs, A., and Hegedus, E.: S-wave reflection imaging of a tectonically determined cavern by use of next generation electro-mechanic vibrator, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13316, 2020.

EGU2020-13214 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Detection of the deep cavern at the Felsopeteny, Hungary site using seismic ambient noise data

Miriam Kristekova, Jozef Kristek, Peter Moczo, and Peter Labak

Nuclear explosions are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Obviously, the CTBT needs robust and comprehensive verification tools to make sure that no nuclear explosion goes undetected. The detection of underground cavity due to nuclear explosions is a primary task for an on-site inspection (OSI) and resonance seismometry. Recently we have developed the finite-frequency-range spectral-power method that makes it possible to use seismic ambient noise recorded at the free surface above an underground cavity for localizing it. In this contribution we present results of application of the method to data recorded at a site of the Great Cavern near Felsopeteny, Hungary.

CTBTO performed several active and passive seismic measurements at the free surface above the Great Cavern in September 2019. Seismic ambient noise was recorded one week continuously at almost 50 stations with interstation distance around 50 m covering area 400 x 400 m.

The oval shaped cavern with a diameter of 28 m located 70 m below the surface was discovered within a clay mine in N-Hungary. The deep basement is composed of Triassic limestone, the cavern is in the overlying Oligocene sandstone formation. As a result of hydrothermal activity in the Pleistocene a cave formed in the limestone which may have collapsed over time. The opening of the deep part of the cave influenced the overlying sandstone formation but the collapse did not reach the surface.

We present the procedure of pre-processing and identification of a position of the cavern based on the recorded seismic ambient noise. We checked robustness of the obtained results. The results demonstrate potential of our methodology for the OSI purposes.

How to cite: Kristekova, M., Kristek, J., Moczo, P., and Labak, P.: Detection of the deep cavern at the Felsopeteny, Hungary site using seismic ambient noise data, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13214, 2020.

EGU2020-839 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Detecting explosion-induced dynamic phenomena using time-lapse seismic surveying

Shaji Mathew, Colin MacBeth, Maria-Daphne Mangriotis, and Jenny Stevanovic

Characterization of seismic events as underground nuclear explosions is a challenging task. Geophysical methods such as seismic monitoring systems are used by CTBTO to link post-explosion phenomena to potential sources. The main challenges in seismic monitoring involve accurately locating of sources and separating underground variations in seismic properties due to the explosion from naturally occurring variations. Underground detonations result in an immense change in pressure and temperature concentrated around the source origin. This results in the formation of characteristic static and dynamic phenomena. This study highlights the potential of using time-lapse seismic to identify ground zero by monitoring post-explosion dynamic phenomena. Time-lapse seismic, also known as 4D seismic, is successfully employed in the oil and gas industry for petroleum production monitoring and management. It involves taking more than one 2D/3D seismic at different calendar times over the same reservoir and studying the difference in seismic attributes.

Following an underground explosion, dynamic changes in rock and fluid properties are observable for a prolonged period, even up to several decades. This is prominent near to source origin, and it is a result of the redistribution of residual energy, such as pressure, temperature, and saturation. Frequent seismic monitoring surveys (time-lapse seismic) enables one to monitor the changes in rock and fluid properties. This study presents the characteristics of the time-lapse seismic signature observed in a heterogeneous medium (or heterogeneous cavity). We will look into the impact of factors affecting land 4D repeatability on the 4D signature. The significance of identifying the 4D signature related to the explosion in a seismic section, and the feasibility of detecting it during the OSI with resource and time constraints in place will be discussed. We present a fast detection method using machine learning for the detection of explosion related time-lapse signature, which could be an identifier of the source location or ground zero.

Acknowledgments: Authors would like to thank EPSRC and AWE for funding this project.

How to cite: Mathew, S., MacBeth, C., Mangriotis, M.-D., and Stevanovic, J.: Detecting explosion-induced dynamic phenomena using time-lapse seismic surveying, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-839, 2020.

EGU2020-21345 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Güralp recommendations for the installation of high-performance, observatory-grade seismic stations

Sofia Filippi, Sally Mohr, Marie Balon, Phil Hill, Neil Watkiss, and Shawn Goessen

In order to monitor nuclear tests on a global scale, it is one of the IMS’s fundamental tasks to maintain a network of seismic stations with high data reliability. Installation is often the most critical aspect of a successful seismic station. A poorly designed layout leads to the introduction of noise that can hugely impact data quality, therefore rendering expensive, high performance equipment inadequate.

To facilitate quality installations and encourage better practices in the global seismic monitoring community, Güralp has developed a system that will allow for observatory-grade data.

The system is a classic seismic station composed of an ultra-low noise broadband seismometer: a Güralp 3T (120s or 360s), a high-performance digitizer-datalogger: the Güralp Affinity, a sensor cable and an atmospheric pressure enclosure.

The custom-built pressure enclosure enhances performance in vault installations, protecting the sensor from minuscule fluctuations in temperature and pressure, hence considerably reducing noise levels.

Güralp also provide best practice guidelines to assist researchers in designing their station, from site selection, installation and training to data retrieval and analysis.

Since 2001, Güralp have been managing the Eskdalemuir seismic array (EKA), the United Kingdom’s auxiliary station for the International Monitoring System. These years of experience with CTBT related monitoring have taught us that good results do not come from the instrument alone. This is why Güralp endeavors to accompany operators through every step of the process with a team of specialist engineers, applying 35 years of expertise from project conception to data retrieval.

How to cite: Filippi, S., Mohr, S., Balon, M., Hill, P., Watkiss, N., and Goessen, S.: Güralp recommendations for the installation of high-performance, observatory-grade seismic stations, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21345, 2020.

EGU2020-7776 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

The Italian CTBTO Cooperating National Facility (CNF): status of the art

Damiano Pesaresi, Michele Bertoni, Elvio Del Negro, Stefano Parolai, and Paolo Comelli

The Italian National Institute for Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS) in Trieste (Italy) is offering, in agreement with the Italian CTBTO National Authority, its Cludinico (CLUD) seismic station as a Cooperating National Facility (CNF) to the CTBTO. As outlined in Pesaresi and Horn (2015) the additional data from the Italian CNF improve the CTBTO location capabilities in the Europe/Middle East area of about 21%, which might be of interest given the actual situation in Iran that breached the nuclear Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (Reuters, 2019).

In this presentation, we will illustrate the technical details of the solutions adopted to incorporate the Italian CNF into the CTBTO International Monitoring System (IMS): evaluation of CTBTO certification readiness, CTBTO Standard Station Interface (SSI) hardware and software procurement, test and installation, UPS upgrade, implementation and test of CTBTO communication, security measures.

Reference:

Pesaresi, D., and Horn, N.: Improving CTBTO monitoring capabilities: the Italian proposal for a CNF, CTBT Science and Technology 2015, Vienna, Austria, 22-26 June 2015, T4.1-P31, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2862.1927, 2015.

Reuters: "Iran further breaches nuclear deal, says it can exceed 20% enrichment", https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKCN1VS05B, last access: 14 January 2020, 2019.

How to cite: Pesaresi, D., Bertoni, M., Del Negro, E., Parolai, S., and Comelli, P.: The Italian CTBTO Cooperating National Facility (CNF): status of the art, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7776, 2020.

EGU2020-20511 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

The application of airborne remote sensing during an On-Site Inspection

Aled Rowlands, Peter Labak, Massimo Chiappini, Luis Gaya-Pique, John Buckle, and Henry Seywerd

The application of airborne remote sensing techniques permitted by the Comprehensive Nuclear‑Test‑Ban Treaty (magnetic and gamma survey as well as optical imaging including infrared measurements) is done through the prism of inspection team functionality – a logic which applies equally to air and ground-based techniques. Work undertaken over recent years through modelling and practical testing has aimed to better understand the ability of airborne remote sensing techniques to detect relevant observables under different conditions. This has led to the compilation of a concept of operations document that provides guidance on the application of inspection activities during an On-Site Inspection. As well as highlighting the relative merits of each technique, the document also addresses the relative likelihood a particular airborne technique will return relevant information and will avoid the commitment of resources to missions with little likelihood of success.

The paper also addresses the approaches which have been taken to streamline the acquisition of airborne remotely sensed data through bespoke installations, the identification of optimal data processing routines to facilitate the production of reports and the fusion of airborne data products with other data gathered during an inspection.

How to cite: Rowlands, A., Labak, P., Chiappini, M., Gaya-Pique, L., Buckle, J., and Seywerd, H.: The application of airborne remote sensing during an On-Site Inspection, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20511, 2020.

EGU2020-21039 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

Radon and CO2 tracer for radioxenon subsurface sampling in the On Site Inspection

Chiara Telloli, Barbara Ferrucci, Antonietta Rizzo, Stefano Salvi, Alberto Ubaldini, and Carmela Vaccaro

The detection of anomalous concentration of Xenon radiosotopes in the subsurface gases during an On Site Inspection (OSI) is a strong indicator of a suspicious underground nuclear explosion. This implies that the sampling methodology ensure the collection of a reliable representative subsurface gaseous sample, avoiding the mixing with atmospheric gases. Radioxenon sampling in shallow layers can provide reliable results for desert areas, but different local geological features could result in more complex migration of subsurface gases to the very near superficial layers affecting the representativeness of the sample.

Radon is currently use as tracer to reveal the effective sampling of gases form the deep surface, so its measurement is coupled with the collection of radioxenon subsurface gases. The detection of radon anomalous concentration in subsurface gases could indicate different causes: high Radon content in subsurface indicate high radon concentration underground caused by the accumulation in an underground and confined cavity; on the other side, low radon detection in subsurface indicate low radon concentration underground that can be indicative of the absence of an underground cavity or the presence of rocks in the cavity absorbing radon. This lead to the consideration that radon is not a univocal tracer for Xe surface sampling in the OSI. A portable isotopic analyzer (that measures d13C and CO2) could be used to localize the faults and fracturing that could lead to a seeping of the subsurface gases. Therefore, this technique could be proposed as an auxiliary equipment for a preliminary activity during an OSI and a monitoring tool during subsurface gas sampling.

How to cite: Telloli, C., Ferrucci, B., Rizzo, A., Salvi, S., Ubaldini, A., and Vaccaro, C.: Radon and CO2 tracer for radioxenon subsurface sampling in the On Site Inspection, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21039, 2020.

EGU2020-21517 | Displays | ITS1.7/SM3.5

GIMO – a new geospatial tool for On-site Inspection data collection and techniques integration

Gustavo Haquin Gerade, Peter Labak, Aled Rowlands, Nenad Steric, Oleksandr Shabelnyk, Magnus Ahlander, and Alicia Lobo

An on-site inspection (OSI) is conducted to clarify whether a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion has been carried out in violation of the Treaty. The conduct of inspection activities requires an approach that takes into account the operational, technical and time constraints specified in the Treaty. A systematic approach was developed, namely, the information-led search logic for the inspection team (IT) to function effectively. The core of the search logic is inspection data acquired. The realization of the search logic is the Inspection Team Functionality (ITF) which its essential element is having the most updated inspection data readily available to inspectors to facilitate the planning, processing and reporting.

To facilitate the work of an IT, the Provisional Technical Secretariat launched a project to develop a map centric tool to support the IT. The Geospatial Information Management system for On-site inspections (GIMO), supports decision-making and facilitates the progress of an inspection and not hinder it in anyway. At its core is the facilitation of the ITF concept and chain of custody of samples and electronic media. It is a single tool for planning inspection activities, managing data collection in the field, integration of data generated by the implementation of OSI techniques and reporting. Information security, chain of custody and confidentiality requirements are applied in GIMO following the need-to-know principle. GIMO, 3D geospatially centric software, has no software dependencies outside the internal local area network as required by the Treaty. The modular nature of GIMO means that additional functionality can be embedded as and when needed.

How to cite: Haquin Gerade, G., Labak, P., Rowlands, A., Steric, N., Shabelnyk, O., Ahlander, M., and Lobo, A.: GIMO – a new geospatial tool for On-site Inspection data collection and techniques integration, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21517, 2020.