Content:

HS – Hydrological Sciences

HS1.1.1 – The MacGyver session for innovative and/or self made tools to observe the geosphere

EGU21-1120 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

A new low-cost approach to 3-D water temperature monitoring

Eva Loerke, Mark E. Wilkinson, Ina Pohle, David Drummond, and Josie Geris

Water temperature is one of the key factors controlling aquatic ecosystems and influencing physical, chemical and biological processes. Detailed observations of spatial and temporal patterns in water temperature are important for assessing e.g. variations in thermal refugia, impacts of climate change and for developing appropriate management strategies. Freshwater  temperatures are still mostly analysed based on single point measurements, but these do not reflect the spatial thermal variability within waterbodies (i.e. stream and lake) and therefore could lack information on thermal refugia. 2-D images of freshwater temperature in varying spatial resolution are increasingly obtained by space- and airborne methods such as UAV (unmanned aircraft vehicles). While these UAV methods offer the necessary spatial resolution at the surface, they require in situ measurements to obtain absolute temperature values and don’t provide information on vertical thermal variability. Approaches that bridge this gap do exist (e.g. fibreoptic cables), but high demand on resources and high costs limit widespread use.

The aim of this work was to develop a low-cost, custom-build, fully flexible 3-D temperature sensor system that can be used for calibration and validation of thermal UAV observations, but also adds information on water temperature with depth. The design of our floating sensor system (with a maximum of 72 sensors) offers high flexibility in horizontal/vertical spacing and logging time intervals (ms to h). Here we present the first results of our prototype, which was calibrated using Solinst Leveloggers (accuracy ± 0.05ºC) and tested under various ambient conditions, both in the laboratory and in a lab-in-field experiment in a relatively shallow lake (maximum measurement depth of 1.50 m) in NE Scotland. We also evaluated the use of this system with UAV imagery at the lake.

The results show a quick response of the individual sensors to temperature changes and indicate suitability of the system for validating and calibrating thermal UAV images. For a set-up with 12 vertical arrays (6 sensors at different depths for each array) and arranged as a grid, preliminary data indicated the value for a 3-D approach as not all thermal patterns at depth were captured by surface measurements. Next, the transferability of the sensor system to a stream will be tested and applied to a stream water management case. Together with UAV thermal imagery, the new sensor system could have the potential for a wide range of research and management applications (e.g. thermal habitats, groundwater upwelling, infiltration of cooling water).

How to cite: Loerke, E., Wilkinson, M. E., Pohle, I., Drummond, D., and Geris, J.: A new low-cost approach to 3-D water temperature monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1120, 2021.

EGU21-1530 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

An Imaging Capable, Low Cost IoT Node for River Flood Phenomena

Evangelos Skoubris and George Hloupis

Among all natural disasters, river floods are becoming increasingly frequent. They present high risk and their impact can be fairly destructive and of strong economic, health, and social importance. Key tools to avoid their catastrophic results are the Early Warning Systems (EWS). An EWS usually monitors various physical quantities through a specific hardware, and produce data which after certain processing can detect and estimate the level of the risk.

In the current work we present the concept, the design, the application, and some preliminary data regarding a low cost imaging node, part of an EWS aimed for river floods. This EWS consists of various sensing nodes which are mainly equipped with water presence detectors, water level meters, water temperature sensors, along with the necessary networking capability. The novelty of this new node design is that it utilizes a VGA resolution camera which captures still images of a view of interest. The latter can be for example an implementation prone to defects in case of flood, such as a river basin level road crossing, or a bridge. The images can also provide constant monitoring of the river basin state, i.e. to detect the presence of any unwanted objects (waste or other natural & artificial bring materials). Through image processing the images can even provide some coarse data, i.e. water level measurements by utilizing vertical stripped rods within the field of view of the camera.

The ability to have a camera usually counteracts the IoT characteristics of an electronic device. Nevertheless, in this design the IoT character of the node was not constrained. The nodes have extended power autonomy (several months via Li-Ion battery, optionally solar rechargeable), present a small size, each node is network independent using GSM and LoRaWAN technology. The data usage is minimized by uploading only 2 QVGA images per day in normal operation (can be increased to a maximum of 48 VGA images per day, if required). In case of risk detection the node also supports the actuation of a local warning sign.

How to cite: Skoubris, E. and Hloupis, G.: An Imaging Capable, Low Cost IoT Node for River Flood Phenomena, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1530, 2021.

EGU21-887 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Measuring and monitoring trees and forests using a novel IoT approach

Matthew Wilkinson, Michael Bell, Thomas Baer, and Georgios Xenakis

International attempts to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, aimed at stabilizing human induced climate change, require a detailed understanding of the current and potential future role of forests to sequester carbon. Accurate, high frequency and reliable measurements are therefore vital in developing effective mitigation strategies and help to improve understanding of the other ecosystem services provided by forests which are valued by society. However, forests are typically located in remote, rural environments which can make regular access for surveyors and other forest scientists challenging and logistically difficult. In 2020, Forest Research worked in partnership with the UK government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Vodafone to explore how Internet of things (IoT) technology can be used to improve environmental and forest monitoring and to test its suitability at remote rural locations in the UK. A pilot study which ran at Forest Research’s two contrasting long-term carbon flux sites, Alice Holt (Hampshire) and Harwood (Northumberland) used IoT technology to measure and transmit high frequency growth and environmental data over the course on an entire growing season. Tree growth sensors (automated dendrometers) and a range of other environmental sensors (e.g. air temperature and  humidity, soil moisture) attached to the trees and in the soil (nine replicates per site), were connected to the Vodafone Narrowband-IoT (NB-IoT) network. Data was uploaded every 15 minutes to a Grafana based online web portal, providing researchers with near real time access to the data.  Here we present results from these two sites, details of the hardware used in these new devices and evaluation of their performance during this pilot study.

How to cite: Wilkinson, M., Bell, M., Baer, T., and Xenakis, G.: Measuring and monitoring trees and forests using a novel IoT approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-887, 2021.

EGU21-2289 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Open source hardware for counting and measuring raindrops

Nick van de Giesen, Rolf Hut, and Dirk van der Lubbe - Sanjuan

Over the past years, simple acoustic drop detectors have been developed for different objectives. The core of these detectors were standard piezoelectric elements. For some applications, such as simply counting drops, not much signal processing is needed. For other applications, however, such as measurement of drop energy, which would allow for estimation of drop sizes as well, careful signal processing is needed. For this purpose, we have developed a shield, or “Wing” that can be plugged into an Adafruit Feather (https://www.adafruit.com/feather), which we call DisdroWing. This board includes a high-end operational amplifier and a fast analogue to digital converter. With this board, the user can experiment and implement specific applications, such as rain/no rain detection, hail detection, or drop energy. The design of the DisdroWing is publicly available and can also be purchased fully assembled.

How to cite: van de Giesen, N., Hut, R., and van der Lubbe - Sanjuan, D.: Open source hardware for counting and measuring raindrops, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2289, 2021.

EGU21-2764 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

An easy-to-use, low-cost evaporation protection to collect more reliable stable water isotope data with Teledyne ISCO portable samplers

Jana von Freyberg, Julia L. A. Knapp, Andrea Rücker, Bjørn Studer, Massimiliano Zappa, and James W. Kirchner

Off-the-shelf portable automatic water samplers, such as the 6712 full-size portable sampler (Teledyne ISCO, Lincoln, USA), are often used in remote locations to collect precipitation or streamwater for subsequent analysis of deuterium and oxygen-18.  The bottles inside these automatic samplers remain open during the full duration of sampler deployment and the collected water samples can thus be subjected to evaporation and vapor exchange.  Both processes are known to alter the isotope composition of the water sample, and thus the questions arise as to 1) how credible the isotope measurements from automatically collected water samples are and 2) how can these isotope effects in the automatic water sampler be reduced?

We evaluated these questions through laboratory and field experiments in which we quantified the change in isotope composition in the water samples with respect to ambient conditions (air temperature and relative humidity), storage duration, and sample volume.  We found that isotope fractionation in the water samples was substantial under very warm and dry condition, when sample volumes are small or when sample storage exceeded 10 days.  To address these problems, we have designed an evaporation protection method which modifies autosampler bottles using a syringe housing and silicone tube.  We performed paired experiments with open vs. evaporation-protected bottles in Teledyne ISCO 6712 full-size portable samplers to evaluate our design.  We could show that the evaporation protection successfully reduced isotope fractionation in the water samples for storage durations of up to 24 days and for a wide range of ambient conditions; e.g., while deuterium concentrations in the water samples in open bottles changed by ca. 3‰ under very warm and dry conditions, no isotope effect was measured in the bottles equipped with the evaporation protection. Because our design is very cost efficient it can easily be implemented to upgrade Teledyne ISCO’s 6712 full-size portable samplers or other similar devices for collecting more reliable isotope data.

How to cite: von Freyberg, J., Knapp, J. L. A., Rücker, A., Studer, B., Zappa, M., and Kirchner, J. W.: An easy-to-use, low-cost evaporation protection to collect more reliable stable water isotope data with Teledyne ISCO portable samplers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2764, 2021.

EGU21-8325 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Low-Budget Sewage Overflow Monitoring

Caroline Spill, Lukas Ditzel, Nora Brumm, Julia Böhm, and Matthias Gassmann

Sewage overflows in headwater catchments are critical, mostly not well monitored point sources for many pollutants such as oxygen depleting substances, pharmaceuticals or heavy metals. The outlets are often located at places where no connection to the power grid is available, hence it is often necessary to provide deployed sensors or sampling devices with mobile power sources like car-batteries. In addition, autosamplers or on-line sensors are expensive devices. For these reasons, a proper monitoring strategy, including water quality parameters in these structures is often complicated to implement and from an economical point of view not reasonable. Therefore, we combined two low-budget DIY devices, a modified Zurich sequential sampler for time-discrete rainfall samples and Stream Temperature, Intermittency, and Conductivity loggers (STIC), to build a low-budget monitoring system being able to take time-discrete samples from sewage overflow. Our modified sampler collects 12 samples in a row, with variable volumes from 0.25 to 0.5 L. In each bottle a STIC was implemented. The STICs start to measure a conductivity higher than zero as soon as water starts to flow into the bottle. This allows for a clear assignment between sample and time. We called this sampler the Sewage Overflow Monitoring Sampler (SOMS).

Though the probe volume and the time period for sampling is strongly limited, concentration variations, including peak concentrations, in sewage overflows are expected to be measured right at the beginning of an event (first flush) and should be therefore covered by the sampler. First laboratory tests were successful. In the next step the monitoring system will be implemented on a field side.

Depending on the scientific question of the study, the SOMS can be complemented in the field by either another STIC logger or a pressure probe. The STIC logger is located at the bottom of the canal. This allows the detection of the duration of the overflow event. By installing a pressure probe the discharge can be approximated as long as gradient and the geometry of the canal is known.

How to cite: Spill, C., Ditzel, L., Brumm, N., Böhm, J., and Gassmann, M.: Low-Budget Sewage Overflow Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8325, 2021.

EGU21-8384 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Water vapour monitoring with E-band microwave links of cellular backhaul

Martin Fencl and Vojtech Bares

Water vapour observations represent an important input e.g. for predicting mesoscale initiation of convective precipitation or estimating evapotranspiration. E-band commercial microwave links (CMLs), which are increasingly used in cellular backhaul, might be used as unintentional water vapour sensors accessible remotely from a network operation centre. E-band CMLs operate at frequencies between 71 and 86 GHz where water vapour causes substantial attenuation of electromagnetic waves. This attenuation can be related to water vapour density along a CML path, nevertheless, it has to be properly separated from other sources of attenuation, especially rainfall-induced attenuation, and wet antenna attenuation caused by wet surface of antenna radomes. Moreover, the relation between attenuation and water vapour density is also dependent on temperature (Fencl et al., 2020).

This contribution evaluates capability to estimate water vapour density on a 4.86 km long full-duplex CML being operated within cellular backhaul at frequencies 73.5 GHz and 83.5 GHz. Three rain gauges are deployed along its path, two of them being equipped with an air humidity sensor. The evaluation period is between August to December 2018. The results show that estimation of water vapour density is feasible when there is now rain and antenna radomes are dry, which is only about 50% of time. Estimated water vapour density during dry weather is highly correlated with humidity observations (r = 0.7). The highest correlations are observed during summer season (r = 0.9) and lowest during December (r = 0.3) when amplitude of water vapour fluctuations are small. In contrast, mean absolute error is highest during August (approx. 1 g/m3) and lowest in December (0.2 g/m3). Most of the outliers were encountered during October, probably due to multipath inferences occurring during clear-sky conditions.

Unintentional sensing of water vapour density with E-band CMLs is feasible by sufficiently (several kilometres) long CMLs. Currently, 20 % of new CML deployments are operated E-band. E-band CMLs might thus greatly increase continental coverage of water vapour ground observations.

 

Fencl, M., Dohnal, M., Valtr, P., Grabner, M. and Bareš, V.: Atmospheric observations with E-band microwave links – challenges and opportunities, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 13(12), 6559–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6559-2020, 2020.

How to cite: Fencl, M. and Bares, V.: Water vapour monitoring with E-band microwave links of cellular backhaul, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8384, 2021.

EGU21-9371 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

A new approch for measuring ocean vertical velocities

Jean-Luc Fuda, Stéphanie Barrillon, Andrea Doglioli, Anne Petrenko, Gerald Gregori, Roxanne Tzortzis, Caroline Comby, Melilotus Thyssen, Michel Lafont, Nagib Bhairy, Denis Malengros, Dorian Guillemain, and Chistian Grenz

Compared to horizontal components, the vertical components of ocean currents are generally very weak (a few mm/s) in all oceanic regions of the world. Due to their major role in the vertical distribution of physical and biogeochemical properties of sea water, their extended knowledge is of utmost importance for oceanographers. However, their in-situ measurement represents a real technical challenge, even using sophisticated instruments such as ADCPs.

As a complement to the ADCP method presented in another session (Comby et al.), we have developed an original alternative instrument, called the VVP (Vertical Velocity Profiler). It was inspired by several published works which exploit the difference between the real vertical speed Wr of a submarine glider (~dP/dt, from the onboard pressure sensor) and its theoretical vertical speed Wth extracted from a flight model. The oceanic vertical speed Woc is thus expressed by the simple difference Woc = Wr - Wth at any  point in the water column.

The very first prototype of the VVP consisted of a float and a friction disc, ballasted to sink at a very low speed (~ 0.1 m / s) and dragged down to the desired depth by a dead-weight which was automatically released after a suitable delay. The release system was developped in-house (patent filled in March 2020), based on a textured insert trapped in a volume of ice melting at controlled speed. Since then, the concept of the profiler has evolved considerably. The last design uses an electric thruster that drives the profiler down to a predefined setpoint depth. Once the depth is reached, the thruster is stopped and the profiler then rises slowly (~0.1 m/s) to the surface under the sole effect of its slightly positive buoyancy. The mechanical balance between buoyancy and hydrodynamic drag results in a constant vertical speed of ascent in water at rest. Any deviation from this constant speed is then interpreted as an oceanic  vertical velocity signal. This new design allows a very large number of consecutive profiles to be collected, the number of descent-ascent cycles and the setpoint depth being programmed and controlled using an ARDUINO microcontroller board. The selected Li-Io battery allows for several hours of continuous profiling.  When on surface, the profiler is currently located by a commercial GPS tracker integrated into the electronic case. The vertical velocity of the profiler is accurately measured at  high frequency (2Hz) thanks to the fast-response pressure sensor of the onboard RBR-CONCERTO autonomous CTD, which also measures the sea water density involved in  drag and buoyancy.

Trials both in deep pool and in the field are scheduled in spring 2021 in order to refine the prototype design and to definitely set the flight model parameters. This development benefits from CNES (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales) financial support in the framework of the BIOSWOT international program.

How to cite: Fuda, J.-L., Barrillon, S., Doglioli, A., Petrenko, A., Gregori, G., Tzortzis, R., Comby, C., Thyssen, M., Lafont, M., Bhairy, N., Malengros, D., Guillemain, D., and Grenz, C.: A new approch for measuring ocean vertical velocities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9371, 2021.

EGU21-9421 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Underwater annular irradiance: New concept to measure the light diffuse attenuation coefficient through the KduSTICK, a Do-It-Yourself device

Carlos Rodero, Raul Bardaji, Joaquin Salvador, Estrella Olmedo, and Jaume Piera

Measuring water transparency allows us to monitor the water body's environmental status. One parameter to estimate water transparency is the light diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd). This coefficient is of particular interest in water quality monitoring programs.

The Kd describes the light extinction as function as the depth of downwelling irradiance, Ed. However, self-shading by the instrument itself can cause errors in Ed estimations. To avoid this effect, relative complex structures must be required to install the sensors that limit the vertical resolution of Ed measurements. Here we propose to use optical sensors in an annular-shape distribution to mitigate these limitations. For this, we introduce a new concept: the annular irradiance, Ea. We first compute the optimal angle to avoid self-shading while maximizing the light captured by the sensor. Second, we assess the robustness of the corresponding diffuse attenuation coefficient, Ka, in different scenarios of water types, solar angle and cloud coverage. Finally, we correlate Ka measurements with Kd at PAR region, and we derive empirical functions from translating Ka to Kd measurements.      

This new coefficient is the basis of the new generation of the KdUINO instrument  (Bardaji et al., 2016) as a KduSTICK, which estimates the near-surface light extinction coefficient based on Ka measurements. Since the design of the instrument avoids self-shading, the device is expected to be particularly useful in those underwater environments where high vertical Ed resolution is required.

Furthermore, instruments based on this light-sensing approach are much simpler to deploy and maintain, and it is possible to design low-cost and Do-It-Yourself (DIY) versions. All these features facilitate its use for non-academic users, making the KduSTICK an optimal instrument to be used in Citizen Science water quality monitoring programs.

How to cite: Rodero, C., Bardaji, R., Salvador, J., Olmedo, E., and Piera, J.: Underwater annular irradiance: New concept to measure the light diffuse attenuation coefficient through the KduSTICK, a Do-It-Yourself device, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9421, 2021.

EGU21-10906 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Continuous water level monitoring using time-lapse imagery

Simone Noto, Flavia Tauro, Andrea Petroselli, Ciro Apollonio, Gianluca Botter, and Salvatore Grimaldi

Monitoring ephemeral and intermittent streams is a major challenge in hydrology. While direct field observations are best to detect spatial patterns of flow persistence, on site inspections are time and labor intensive and may be impractical in difficult-to-access environments. Motivated by latest advancements of digital cameras and computer vision techniques, in this work, we describe the development and application of a stage-camera system to monitor the water level in ungauged headwater streams. The system encompasses a consumer grade wildlife camera with near infrared (NIR) night vision capabilities and a white pole that serves as reference object in the collected images. Time-lapse imagery is processed through a computationally inexpensive algorithm featuring image quantization and binarization, and water level time series are filtered through a simple statistical scheme. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated through a set of benchmark experiments performed in controlled and natural settings, characterized by an increased level of complexity. Maximum mean absolute errors between stage-camera and reference data are approximately equal to 2 cm in the worst scenario that corresponds to severe hydrometeorological conditions. Our preliminary results are encouraging and support the scalability of the stage camera in future implementations in a wide range of natural settings.

How to cite: Noto, S., Tauro, F., Petroselli, A., Apollonio, C., Botter, G., and Grimaldi, S.: Continuous water level monitoring using time-lapse imagery, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10906, 2021.

EGU21-13082 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Improving the efficiency of HYPROP by controlling temperature and air flow

Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Dimitrios Papadimitriou, and Thrassyvoulos Manios

Soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) is a critical relationship with application in drainage, irrigation, soil physical behavior, and modeling water and nutrient transport. However, constructing the SWCC is tedious, time consuming, and often inaccurate. Recently, METER Group, Inc. (USA) introduced the HYPROP2© measurement system which allows semi-automated direct measurements of water retention and conductivity pairs over a relatively wide range of pressure head values using the Extended Evaporation Method (EEM) (Schindler et al., 2010). Nevertheless, even with HYPROP, depending on soil type, measurement of the characteristic curve under ambient conditions requires from 2 (clay) to 10 days (peat and sand) (Schindler et al., 2010). To expedite the method, here we propose a modification of HYPROP that facilitates consistent temperature and air flow around and over the soil sample ring to ensure constant evaporation from the soil sample. The prototype regulates soil sample temperature using two 5X10 cm heating pads (SparkFun Electronics, USA) insulated with glass fiber belt around the sample ring. Air flow is regulated by a blushless 40x40x10 mm fan (SparkFun Electronics, USA) mounted over the HYPROP apparatus. Temperature and fan speed are regulated by a DC step down module based on the LM2596 Simple Switcher® Power Converter (Texas Instruments, USA). All parts are 5 VDC and can be conveniently powered by USB. Here we compare the time required for HYPROP to estimate the SWCC curve for two hydroponic substrates (cocodust and perlite) and show that the resulting curve is identical, while the time required to process the sample is significantly reduced. These results, as well as extensive testing conducted by Daliakopoulos et al. (2020) and Papadimitriou et al. (2020) show that the HYPROP method can greatly benefit in terms of efficiency from including a similar system to control the evaporation rate.

References

Daliakopoulos, I.Ν., Papadimitriou, D., Matsoukas, T., Zotos, N., Moysiadis, H., Anastasopoulos, K., Mavrogiannis, I., Manios, T., 2020. Development and Preliminary Results from the Testbed Infrastructure of the DRIP Project. Proceedings 30, 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2019030064

Papadimitriou, D., Kontaxakis, E., Daliakopoulos, I., Manios, T., Savvas, D., 2020. Effect of N:K Ratio and Electrical Conductivity of Nutrient Solution on Growth and Yield of Hydroponically Grown Golden Thistle (Scolymus hispanicus L.). Proceedings 30, 87. https://doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2019030087

Schindler, U., Durner, W., von Unold, G., Mueller, L., Wieland, R., 2010. The evaporation method: Extending the measurement range of soil hydraulic properties using the air-entry pressure of the ceramic cup. J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci. https://doi.org/10.1002/jpln.200900201

Acknowledgements

This research has been co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH-CREATE-INNOVATE (project codes: T1EDK-03372, Τ1EDK-04171)

How to cite: Daliakopoulos, I., Papadimitriou, D., and Manios, T.: Improving the efficiency of HYPROP by controlling temperature and air flow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13082, 2021.

EGU21-13142 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

Automated high resolution rain water sampler for stable water isotope monitoring 

Christoff Andermann, Markus Reich, Torsten Queißer, Bijay Puri, Oliver Rach, Niels Hovius, and Dirk Sachse

With global change, one of the largest short-term threats to our societies comes from changes in the hydro-meteorological cycle: droughts, flooding and potentially increasing extreme rain events may have far greater direct impact on humans than rising temperatures alone. These changes often have sever consequences and widespread impact on society and ecosystems, yet they are difficult to track, trace and measure in order to fully understand the underlying process of delivering moisture and recharging water reservoirs. Only through the comprehensive monitoring of precipitation waters in space and time can we improve our process understanding and better predict the direction and magnitude of future hydro-meteorological changes, in particular on regional spatial scales. However, no commercial automated sampling solution exists, which fulfills the quality criteria for sophisticated hydrochemical water analysis.

Here, we present an new developed automatic precipitation water sampler for stable water isotope analysis of precipitation. The device is designed to be highly autonomous and robust for campaign deployment in harsh remote areas and fulfills the high demands on sampling and storage for isotope analysis (i.e. sealing of samples from atmospheric influences, no contamination and preservation of the sample material). The sampling device is portable, has low power consumption and a real-time adaptable sampling protocol strategy, and can be maintained at distance without any need to visit the location. Furthermore, the obtained water samples are not restricted to isotope analysis but can be used for any type of environmental water analysis. The current configuration can obtain 165 discrete rainwater samples with a minimum timely resolution of 5min or volume wise 2mm of rainfall.

The device was tested in several evaluation and benchmarking cycles. First lab tests with dyed waters and waters with strongly differing isotopic signature demonstrate that the device can obtain, store and conserve samples without cross contamination over long periods of time. The device has been tested so far under several conditions, e.g. heavy summer thunderstorms with more than 50mm/24h of rainfall, sustained winter rainfall and in cold conditions involving melting of snow. Furthermore, we run a benchmark test with several devices in parallel. Finally, in October 2020, we had installed six devices, in collaboration with Germany's National Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst DWD), in a South-West to North-East transect across the Harz mountains in Germany. The transect covers ~ 100km distance along the main orographic gradient.

This automated rainwater sampler provides an economic and sophisticated technological solution for monitoring moisture pathways and water transfer processes with the analytical quality of laboratory standard measurements on a new level of temporal and spatial resolution.

How to cite: Andermann, C., Reich, M., Queißer, T., Puri, B., Rach, O., Hovius, N., and Sachse, D.: Automated high resolution rain water sampler for stable water isotope monitoring , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13142, 2021.

EGU21-13337 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

A Low-Cost Turbidity Sensor for Deployment in Rivers

Peter Molnar, Jessica Droujko, and Marius Floriancic

Fine sediment supply to floodplains and coastal areas is extremely important for nutrient transport, global biogeochemical cycles, water quality and pollution in riverine, coastal and marine ecosystems. Monitoring of suspended sediment in rivers with current sensors is challenging and expensive, and most monitoring setups are restricted to few single point measurements. To better understand the spatial heterogeneity of fine sediment production and transport in river systems there is a need for new smart water turbidity sensing that is multisite and at the same time accurate and affordable.

We developed an affordable but reasonably accurate turbidity sensor, that is suitable for distributed sensing with a multitude of sensors across catchments. Our turbidity sensor is much cheaper than existing options of comparable quality. It works by illuminating a sediment-laden water sample with an 860nm IR LED and detects the amount of light scattered at two different angles (with respect to the LED) using light-to-frequency converters. It also incudes an internal temperature sensor and data storage on an SD card. We are also planning to include a water pressure sensor, a GPS module, a more compact and durable design with a printed circuit board, and the option of remote data transmission via LoRa.

Here, we present the results of two experiments with the developed new sensor: (1) a calibration test using formazin (4000 NTU) dilutions to evaluate which detector angles work best in the 0-4000 NTU range, how ambient light affects the results, and if focusing lenses and high-pass filters increase the sensor’s accuracy; (2) a laboratory test with various sediment types and concentrations mixed in a large water tank to compare replicates of our sensors (six in total) to different commercially available turbidity probes. Our results show that a high accuracy in the 0-4000 NTU range can be achieved with our low cost, low power sensor.

The new turbidity sensor will allow us to localise sediment sources and sinks in catchments, i.e. where and when fine sediment is produced, transported and deposited across entire catchments. We will be able to observe the variability in suspended sediment fluxes in glacial streams (the development, expansion and collapse of subglacial channels), along river networks with different local sources (effect of tributary inputs and hillslope landslides), concentration variability due to flow-bed interactions (influence of river bed morphology and grain size), and asses the activation of erosion by rainfall across the multiple potential sediment sources of a catchment. The developed sensor will enable the development of distributed measurement setups, which hopefully can address many other complex challenges related to the spatially heterogeneous processes of sediment activation and transport. This project lays a foundation to explore water turbidity sensing in other global environmental applications in the future, such as soil erosion, sediment trapping behind dams, lake monitoring, and ecological studies.

How to cite: Molnar, P., Droujko, J., and Floriancic, M.: A Low-Cost Turbidity Sensor for Deployment in Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13337, 2021.

Streamflow measurement and prediction are important for proper water resources management. In this case, the water resources problem is drought in the Coastal Mountains of British Columbia, Canada, where a village is drawing drinking water from a mountain stream. Because of challenges with other flow measurement methods in streep turbulent streams, salt dilution gauging is the best way to measure streamflow, but it is labour intensive.

To advance progress towards the singularity, an intelligent automated salt dilution gauging system was deployed, and provides good results, but some disturbances occur due to the presence of a tributary and a drinking water intake. We show how this noise can be turned into signals and discuss a range of other signals that together provide input for the discharge record.

How to cite: Weijs, S. and Eugeni, S.: Bring the noise: Piecing together a discharge record from an automated salt dilution gauging setup and various other information sources, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14324, 2021.

EGU21-16254 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.1

OpenDroneMap360, an affordable DIY open-source hardware and software workflow for 3D point clouds and terrain models

Hessel Winsemius, Stephen Mather, Ivan Gayton, and Iddy Chazua

The state of the art in terrain data generation is Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR). LiDAR is usually deployed through manned or unmanned aerial vehicles. As typical payloads are high, an aircraft with LiDAR needs to be significant in size. Therefore, LiDAR is currently only done by specialized companies with expensive equipment, and cannot be deployed by local service providers in low income countries, despite the plethora of use cases for its data.

 

A promising avenue to replace LiDAR is photogrammetry. It can be applied with much lighter and more affordable aircrafts and its use to provide extensive terrain datasets is steadily increasing. The scalable open-source software OpenDroneMap allows for extending datasets to very large amounts. Photogrammetry however, cannot penetrate vegetation, and (as is the case with LiDAR) does not resolve ground terrain in obscured areas such as dense urban areas with narrow alleys.

 

That is why we are developing OpenDroneMap360, a free and open-source DIY hardware-software camera-ball platform for collection of high quality photos with any carrier you can think of. This can be a self-built drone, a backpack rig or another setup we haven’t considered yet, equipped with enough lenses to discover any ground that you can think of. Our current hardware offers a backpack rig with a total of 7 lenses and contains a parts list, 3D-printable hull, connection scheme, software deployment and a Sphinx manual how to build, deploy and operate the rig. The technology contains raspberry pi cameras connected to raspberry pi zeros for each lens, a Ardusimple u-blox ZED-F9P GNSS chipset, a raspberry pi4 to instruct the cameras, collect GPS positions, and perform file and data management, and a LiPo battery solution. The entire setup is available on https://github.com/localdevices/odm360

 

How to cite: Winsemius, H., Mather, S., Gayton, I., and Chazua, I.: OpenDroneMap360, an affordable DIY open-source hardware and software workflow for 3D point clouds and terrain models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16254, 2021.

HS1.1.2 – Advances in river monitoring and modelling for a climate emergency: data-scarce environments, real-time approaches, inter-comparison of innovative and classical frameworks, uncertainties, harmonisation of methods and good practices

EGU21-10778 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Generating videos of synthetic river flow for the evaluation of image-based techniques for surface velocity determination

Guillaume Bodart, Jérôme Le Coz, Magali Jodeau, and Alexandre Hauet

Several studies have been carried out to evaluate image-based solutions for velocity measurement and discharge determination in river. However, these studies are limited because it is difficult to know the reference surface velocity field accurately. These data are usually extrapolated from measurement within the water column or integrated over a cross-section to determine the discharge to be compared with a reference, which is uncertain itself. Measurement uncertainties are difficult to quantify and cannot be neglected usually.

The only solution that arises to get a flow with a known surface velocity reference is synthetic imaging: we generate artificial images on which particles movements are known everywhere. However, these generators must allow a comparison between simulations and measurements for a wide range of conditions representative of the situations observed in the natural environment. Several Synthetic Image Generators have been designed for laboratory PIV but the generated images are made of white particles moving on a dark background. Such images are not representative of river applications with turbulence figures, foam, debris, sunlight effects but also some homogeneous areas with poor contrast where we can sometimes see the river bed through.

We propose a novel method to generate images from a synthetic river scene with accurate surface velocity references. It is based on the 3D computer graphics tool Blender which integrates a dedicated fluid simulation tool, Mantaflow. Blender allows many different configurations by playing on the modeling of the river, the surrounding objects, the textures and optical properties of the materials but also on the lighting and the camera settings and position. Mantaflow is then used to model and extract the characteristics (velocities, positions in time) of a flow that looks similar to real-life situations. The first synthetic videos obtained were used to study the sensitivity of the velocity results to the image-based velocimetry algorithm, its parameters and user choices.

How to cite: Bodart, G., Le Coz, J., Jodeau, M., and Hauet, A.: Generating videos of synthetic river flow for the evaluation of image-based techniques for surface velocity determination, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10778, 2021.

EGU21-221 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

An improvement to the ANN-enhanced flow rating method

Bernhard Schmid

The work reported here builds upon a previous pilot study by the author on ANN-enhanced flow rating (Schmid, 2020), which explored the use of electrical conductivity (EC) in addition to stage to obtain ‘better’, i.e. more accurate and robust, estimates of streamflow. The inclusion of EC has an advantage, when the relationship of EC versus flow rate is not chemostatic in character. In the majority of cases, EC is, indeed, not chemostatic, but tends to decrease with increasing discharge (so-called dilution behaviour), as reported by e.g. Moatar et al. (2017), Weijs et al. (2013) and Tunqui Neira et al.(2020). This is also in line with this author’s experience.

The research presented here takes the neural network based approach one major step further and incorporates the temporal rate of change in stage and the direction of change in EC among the input variables (which, thus, comprise stage, EC, change in stage and direction of change in EC). Consequently, there are now 4 input variables in total employed as predictors of flow rate. Information on the temporal changes in both flow rate and EC helps the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) characterize hysteretic behaviour, with EC assuming different values for falling and rising flow rate, respectively, as described, for instance, by Singley et al. (2017).

The ANN employed is of the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) type, with stage, EC, change in stage and direction of change in EC of the Mödling data set (Schmid, 2020) as input variables. Summarising the stream characteristics, the Mödling brook can be described as a small Austrian stream with a catchment of fairly mixed composition (forests, agricultural and urbanized areas). The relationship of EC versus flow reflects dilution behaviour. Neural network configuration 4-5-1 (the 4 input variables mentioned above, 5 hidden nodes and discharge as the single output) with learning rate 0.05 and momentum 0.15 was found to perform best, with testing average RMSE (root mean square error) of the scaled output after 100,000 epochs amounting to 0.0138 as compared to 0.0216 for the (best performing) 2-5-1 MLP with stage and EC as inputs only.    

 

References

Moatar, F., Abbott, B.W., Minaudo, C., Curie, F. and Pinay, G.: Elemental properties, hydrology, and biology interact to shape concentration-discharge curves for carbon, nutrients, sediment and major ions. Water Resources Res., 53, 1270-1287, 2017.

Schmid, B.H.: Enhanced flow rating using neural networks with water stage and electrical conductivity as predictors. EGU2020-1804, EGU General Assembly 2020.

Singley, J.G., Wlostowski, A.N., Bergstrom, A.J., Sokol, E.R., Torrens, C.L., Jaros, C., Wilson, C.,E., Hendrickson, P.J. and Gooseff, M.N.: Characterizing hyporheic exchange processes using high-frequency electrical conductivity-discharge relationships on subhourly to interannual timescales. Water Resources Res. 53, 4124-4141, 2017.

Tunqui Neira, J.M., Andréassian, V., Tallec, G. and Mouchel, J.-M.: A two-sided affine power scaling relationship to represent the concentration-discharge relationship. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24, 1823-1830, 2020.

Weijs, S.V., Mutzner, R. and Parlange, M.B.: Could electrical conductivity replace water level in rating curves for alpine streams? Water Resources Research 49, 343-351, 2013.

How to cite: Schmid, B.: An improvement to the ANN-enhanced flow rating method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-221, 2021.

EGU21-1558 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

The use of a 3rd U/S or D/S sensor in Salt Dilution Flow Measurements

Gabe Sentlinger

Salt Dilution flow measurement is relatively accurate and easy way to measure flow in turbulent waterways.  However, it’s accuracy and precision are governed by the Signal to Noise (SNR) Ratio, which can be very low in urban, sub-urban, and rural waterways due to a highly variable BackGround specific Electrical Conductivity (BG ECT) signal.  Conventionally, more salt is added to the waterway to overcome the noise in the BG ECT.  The “noise” is a combination of random noise, which is amplified by the typically high BGECT (>500 uS/cm), but also lower frequency noise that changes on the same time scale as the salt breakthrough curve.  To compensate for the changing BG ECT, we have employed a 3rd UpStream (U/S) probe to track the BG ECT, along with algorithms to transform the signal in 3 domains: magnitude (ECT offset), time (transit time of pulse), and frequency (to compensate for storage in the waterway).  Additionally, we have tested the use of a 3rd DownStream (D/S) probe to measure cross-channel variance when mixing is not complete in order to achieve a reasonable flow estimate.  Results are compared and discussed.

How to cite: Sentlinger, G.: The use of a 3rd U/S or D/S sensor in Salt Dilution Flow Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1558, 2021.

EGU21-5902 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

`Flowonthego' - flow tracking technology on your smartphone 

Jonathan Higham and Andrew Plater

Over the past few years, smartphone devices have become so powerful that in your pocket, not only do you have a device which can communicate with people across the world, the sheer power of these devices has now also brought a new frontier in scientific measurements. In this presentation, we present our smartphone app 'flowonthego', a technology which allows users to determine flow velocities, in almost real-time, from simple video footage. The instantaneous velocity fields are calculated by solving the Lucas-Kanade solutions to the optical flow equations and tracking naturally occurring features. The app also harnesses the potential of augmented reality, making calibration reference and the need tape measures a thing of the past. Furthermore, the app also packs an arsenal of post-processing tools in which users can understand basic statistics. From preliminary our studies we have found 'flowonthego' is able to match the statistics of commonly used ADCP's while also providing instantaneous full vector fields allowing users to better understand dynamical processing. 

How to cite: Higham, J. and Plater, A.: `Flowonthego' - flow tracking technology on your smartphone , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5902, 2021.

EGU21-2116 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

The Video Globe Challenge 2020, a video streamgauging race during the Covid-19 lockdown

Jérôme Le Coz, Alexandre Hauet, and Aurélien Despax

The strict lockdown imposed by the Covid-19 health crisis motivated the French-speaking hydrometry network Groupe Doppler Hydrométrie (GDH) to organise a new type of hydrometric intercomparison, based on video gauging. Between 15 April and 10 May 2020, the Video Globe Challenge 2020 was run in 8 stages corresponding to 8 videos taken from the ground (5 cases) or from a drone (3 cases), each coming with a reference discharge measurement (6 ADCP gauging, 1 dilution gauging, 1 calibration curve). These eight cases present various flows, measurement conditions and operating difficulties. The data were provided by EDF, DREAL Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, NVE (Norway) and DNRME Queensland (Mark Randall, Australia).

For each stage, around 25 competitors participated by submitting their discharge result, their surface velocity coefficient (a.k.a alpha) estimate and their parameters, with the hope of getting as close as possible to the reference discharge. Several velocimetry techniques and software tools were used: from visual spotting and manual processing, in Flowsnap (Tenevia), Excel or Barème, to specialised software, mainly Fudaa-LSPIV (EDF/INRAE) but also SSIVSuite (Photrack), PIVlab, and Opyf (EPFL/INRIA, local optical flow). The general classification (smaller sum of percentage deviations to discharge references), points classification (smaller sum of ranks), sniper classification (best visual velocimetry) and young rider classification (for students) awarded the yellow, green, polka dot and white jerseys, respectively.

The Challenge 2020 has been rich in lessons, notably by illustrating several important sources of error for video gauging and the possible parries that the user can deploy (or not...). The exercise was as useful for training and coaching the participants (often beginners) as it was for identifying the improvements to be expected in procedures and software. The results highlight some operator-related error sources which need to be minimized by developing more guided or automated parameter settings, and more robust velocimetry algorithms. They also illustrate the typical uncertainty levels of such measurements.

The cultural aspects were not left out, revealing historical facts and hydrometry-related feats about the rivers visited, e.g. Julius Caesar wading the river to join the druids in the sanctuary of Seranos, Viking Stør Åne the Blue breaking the ice cover to prevent rating shift, or Sir Herbert inventor of the anti-crocodile waders. The official history of hydrometry conceals many unsuspected mysteries that have yet to be revealed...

How to cite: Le Coz, J., Hauet, A., and Despax, A.: The Video Globe Challenge 2020, a video streamgauging race during the Covid-19 lockdown, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2116, 2021.

EGU21-10330 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Estimating the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic characteristics using Entropy theory at the confluence of Negro and Solimões Rivers

Farhad Bahmanpouri, Silvia Barbetta, Carlo Gualtieri, Marco Ianniruberto, Naziano Filizola, Donatella Termini, and Tommaso Moramarco

When two mega rivers merge the mixing of two flows results in a highly complex three-dimensional flow structure in an area known as the confluence hydrodynamic zone. In the confluence zone, substantial changes occur to the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic features which are of significant interest for researchers. The confluence of the Negro and Solimões Rivers, as one of the largest river junctions on Earth, is the study area of the present research. During the EU-funded Project “Clim-Amazon” (2011-2015), velocity data were collected using an ADCP vessel operating under high and low flow conditions in different locations at that confluence (Gualtieri et al., 2019). By applying the Entropy theory developed by Chiu (1988) for natural channels and simplified by Moramarco et al. (2014), the two-dimensional velocity distribution, as well as depth-averaged velocity, were calculated at the different transects along the confluence zone, using only the surface velocities observation. The estimated data yielded 6.6% and 6.9% error percentage for the discharge data related to high and low flow conditions, respectively, and 8.4% and 8.3% error percentage for the velocity data related to high and low flow conditions, respectively. Regardless of the flow condition, these preliminary results also suggest the potential points at the confluence zone for the maximum local scouring. The findings of the current research highlighted the potential of Entropy theory to estimate the flow characteristics at the large river’s confluence, just starting from the measure of surface velocities. This is of considerable interest for monitoring high flows using no-contact technology, when ADCP or other contact equipment cannot be used for the safety of operators and risks for equipment loss.

 

Keywords: Amazon River, Negro/Solimões Confluence, Entropy Theory, Velocity Distribution, Local Scouring

References

Gualtieri, C., Ianniruberto, M., Filizola, N. (2019). On the mixing of rivers with a difference in density: the case of the Negro/Solimões confluence, Brazil. Journal of Hydrology, 578(11), November 2019, 124029,

Chiu, C. L. (1988). “Entropy and 2-D velocity distribution in open channels”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, 114(7), 738-756

Moramarco, T., Saltalippi, C., Singh, V.P. (2004). “Estimation of mean velocity in natural channels based on Chiu’s velocity distribution equation”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, 9 (1), pp. 42-50

How to cite: Bahmanpouri, F., Barbetta, S., Gualtieri, C., Ianniruberto, M., Filizola, N., Termini, D., and Moramarco, T.: Estimating the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic characteristics using Entropy theory at the confluence of Negro and Solimões Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10330, 2021.

EGU21-14199 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Satellite altimeter to estimate discharge of the Ganga River

Atul Kumar Rai and Kumar Gaurav

We use satellite altimeter data to estimate average monthly discharge at seven different locations in the middle and lower parts of the Ganga River. We have obtained the water level from different satellite altimeter mission ERS-2 (1995 - 2007), Envisat (2002 - 2010), and Jason-2 (2008 - 2017) through publicly available databases Hydroweb and DAHITI. To make the water level comparable with the gauge stations, we applied the datum and offset correction to the altimetry datasets. The corrected water level data well accord with the ground measurements with RMSE values in a range between (22 - 71) cm. 

We then established stage-discharge rating curves from the water-level derived from satellite altimeter and the corresponding discharge measured at the nearest gauge station. We use these rating curves to estimate discharge of the Ganga River in the middle (Kachla bridge, Kanpur, Shahzadpur, Prayagraj and Mirzapur) and lower (Azmabad and Farakka) reaches from the water-level from satellite altimeter. Our estimates of discharge compare with the monthly average discharge recorded at the nearest ground station.

We observed that the uncertainty in the discharge estimate is relatively high in the middle than the lower reaches of the Ganga River. This is probably associated with the low discharge and shallow flow depth of the Ganga River in the middle reaches as compare to the high flow depth and discharge in the lower reaches. Overall performance analysis of statistical parameters (NSE, RSR, PBIAS, and R2), suggests that except for the Kanpur station, our estimates of discharge can be categories into "good" to "satisfactory".

How to cite: Rai, A. K. and Gaurav, K.: Satellite altimeter to estimate discharge of the Ganga River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14199, 2021.

Highly intermittent rivers are widespread on the Tibetan Plateau and deeply impact the ecological stability and social development downstream. Due to the highly intermittent rivers are small, seasonal variated and heavy cloud covered on the Tibetan Plateau, their distribution location is still unknown at catchment scale currently. To address these challenges, a new method is proposed for extracting the cumulative distribution location of highly intermittent river from Sentinel-1 time series in an alpine catchment on the Tibetan Plateau. The proposed method first determines the proper time scale of extracting highly intermittent river, based on which the statistical features are calculated to amplify the difference between land covers. Subsequently, the synoptic cumulative distribution location is extracted through Random Forest model using the statistical features above as explanatory variables. And the precise result is generated by combining the synoptic result with critical flow accumulation area.  The highly intermittent river segments are derived and assessed in an alpine catchment of Lhasa River Basin. The results show that the the intra-annual time scale is sufficient for highly intermittent river extraction. And the proposed method can extract highly intermittent river cumulative distribution locations with total precision of 0.62, distance error median of 64.03 m, outperforming other existing river extraction method.

How to cite: Fei, J. and Liu, J.: Extracting the cumulative distribution location of highly intermittent river from Sentinel-1 time series in an alpine catchment on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4040, 2021.

EGU21-136 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Innovative method for gathering river stage data using only the sound of the water

William Alexander Osborne, Rebecca Hodge, Gordon Love, Peter Hawkin, and Ruth Hawkin

Splosh, gurgle, burble are all terms that can be used to describe how a river sounds as we stand on the bank. We have developed a new approach that uses the passive sound generated by a river, to gauge the current stage of the river, and generate (sono)hydrographs from the safety of the river bank. Our approach offers a cost-effective, power-efficient and flexible means to install flood monitors. We have developed a method of how to take the sound from around a river and translate it into a useful gauging tool without the need to listen to individual recordings. Using an internet of things approach we have developed a system of sound monitors that can be placed anywhere in the vicinity of a river. We aim to target the lesser studied parts of a river catchment, the headwaters, which are often data scarce environments. These environments are an opportunity to identify the real time responses of sub-catchments. The ultimate goal of our research is to enable community level flood monitoring, in areas that may be susceptible to river flooding, but are not yet actively gauged.

 

We hypothesise that the sound generated by a river is a direct response to the obstacles found within the channel and the turbulence they cause. Sound is generated by the increase of energy available in the channel, being transformed into sound energy through turbulence generating structures, i.e. boulders. Data gathered over a winter season from several rivers in the North East of England, during Storm Ciara and Dennis, has shown sound to be a reliable method for determining rapid changes in river stage and is comparable to what the official Environment Agency gauges measured. Through an innovative approach, we have begun to understand the limits on sound data and the calibration of sound to the channel properties. Utilising a 7.5 m wide flume at a white water course we have recreated controlled environments and simulated different discharges and their effect on sound.

 

Overall, we have found that sound is an opportunity to be taken to measure river stage in areas that are seldom studied. We have identified that sound works during extreme conditions, and being placed on the banks of the channel our monitors have a lower risk of being damaged during storm events and are easy and safe to install. We present the first means of using sound from a river to actively gauge a river and the full workflow from collection, analysis and dissemination of results.

How to cite: Osborne, W. A., Hodge, R., Love, G., Hawkin, P., and Hawkin, R.: Innovative method for gathering river stage data using only the sound of the water, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-136, 2021.

EGU21-7513 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Understanding Toxic Floods - Develop monitoring strategies for affected areas

Catrina Brüll, Holger Schüttrumpf, and Henner Hollert

Floods are natural inundations affecting rivers, lakes, coasts and the open sea. Due to anthropogenic impacts those floods can be modified with pollutants. The pollutants are then transported or dislocated during flood events and can then harm humans and life, society and other. The main objective of the project is to understand the complex and non‐linear processes, effects and long‐term impacts of “Toxic Floods” including the various influences of changing natural and anthropogenic boundary conditions from past to future.

As water/environmental engineers we aim to understand flood-related dispersion of contaminants and contaminated sediment. Therefore, we have a deep look at processes concerning sediment transport, fate and load during flood events. In a further step, it is aimed to describe and quantify the anthropogenic impact in floodplains and medium size river catchments. This knowledge will help to simulate toxic floods and define different scenarios and their effect on the environment.

In collaboration with an interdisciplinary team we can synthesize all outcomes and will be able to develop e.g. smart flood monitoring plans.[CB1] 

How to cite: Brüll, C., Schüttrumpf, H., and Hollert, H.: Understanding Toxic Floods - Develop monitoring strategies for affected areas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7513, 2021.

EGU21-8897 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

A Continuous Data Production Approach to Flow Estimation in Canada

Francois Rainville, Alain Pietroniro, Andre Bouchard, Amber Brown, and Douglas Stiff

The world has entered an era of immense water-related threats due to climate warming and human actions.  Changing precipitation patterns, reducing snowpack, accelerating glacial melt, intensifying floods and droughts have made the need for timely hydrometric information indispensable. Climate change thus introduced requirements for adaptive management and timely water resource information at the municipal, regional and national levels. Over the last 10 years, it became evident that demands from users had moved towards best available hydrometric data in near real-time.  As with most hydrometric services around the world, the WSC was a legacy and archive-driven organization that published approved data on an annual basis.  Real-time data was an after-thought simply equated with the application of rating curves onto telemetry water levels, while hydrographers remained focused on approving data months after the facts. To address this challenge, the Meteorological Service of Canada‘s National Hydrological Services, and specifically the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) has developed a near real-time continuous data production system to meet the evolving needs of stakeholders.  To meet this challenge, WSC developed solutions where data would be improved as field-measurements were being acquired. Corrections to data and rating curves are applied within hours of field discharge measurements, allowing for near-real time publication of corrected discharge information.  Moreover, station conditions and performance are constantly monitored with “eyes-on-data” production tools that allow the program to optimize its field visits, costs and data publication. These tools were developed in-house to enable effective network time-management while communicating important information with partner agencies.  This was made possible with a cloud-based hydrometric data production system and modern telecommunications tools.  As a result of this work, the improved near real-time data became the catalyst to revamp a multi-decade approach to final data approval. This improved overall efficiency and is now leading to less delays in the approved data production cycle.  This paper describes the design and implementation of the continuous data production system adopted at WSC and highlights some of the benefits noted since program implementation. This paper also identifies future investments that could help the sustainability of this new system in the long term.

How to cite: Rainville, F., Pietroniro, A., Bouchard, A., Brown, A., and Stiff, D.: A Continuous Data Production Approach to Flow Estimation in Canada, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8897, 2021.

EGU21-9229 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Seeding metrics for image velocimetry performances in rivers

Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Alonso Pizarro, Sophie Pearce, Ian Maddock, Matthew T. Perks, and Salvatore Manfreda

Optical sensors coupled with image velocimetry techniques are becoming popular for river monitoring applications. In this context, new opportunities and challenges are growing for the research community aimed to: i) define standardized practices and methodologies; and ii) overcome some recognized uncertainty at the field scale. At this regard, the accuracy of image velocimetry techniques strongly depends on the occurrence and distribution of visible features on the water surface in consecutive frames. In a natural environment, the amount, spatial distribution and visibility of natural features on river surface are continuously challenging because of environmental factors and hydraulic conditions. The dimensionless seeding distribution index (SDI), recently introduced by Pizarro et al., 2020a,b and Dal Sasso et al., 2020, represents a metric based on seeding density and spatial distribution of tracers for identifying the best frame window (FW) during video footage. In this work, a methodology based on the SDI index was applied to different study cases with the Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) technique. Videos adopted are taken from the repository recently created by the COST Action Harmonious, which includes 13 case study across Europe and beyond for image velocimetry applications (Perks et al., 2020). The optimal frame window selection is based on two criteria: i) the maximization of the number of frames and ii) the minimization of SDI index. This methodology allowed an error reduction between 20 and 39% respect to the entire video configuration. This novel idea appears suitable for performing image velocimetry in natural settings where environmental and hydraulic conditions are extremely challenging and particularly useful for real-time observations from fixed river-gauged stations where an extended number of frames are usually recorded and analyzed.

 

References

Dal Sasso S.F., Pizarro A., Manfreda S., Metrics for the Quantification of Seeding Characteristics to Enhance Image Velocimetry Performance in Rivers. Remote Sensing, 12, 1789 (doi: 10.3390/rs12111789), 2020.

Perks M. T., Dal Sasso S. F., Hauet A., Jamieson E., Le Coz J., Pearce S., …Manfreda S, Towards harmonisation of image velocimetry techniques for river surface velocity observations. Earth System Science Data, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, 12(3), 1545 – 1559, 2020.

Pizarro A., Dal Sasso S.F., Manfreda S., Refining image-velocimetry performances for streamflow monitoring: Seeding metrics to errors minimisation, Hydrological Processes, (doi: 10.1002/hyp.13919), 1-9, 2020.

Pizarro A., Dal Sasso S.F., Perks M. and Manfreda S., Identifying the optimal spatial distribution of tracers for optical sensing of stream surface flow, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 5173–5185, (10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020), 2020.

How to cite: Dal Sasso, S. F., Pizarro, A., Pearce, S., Maddock, I., Perks, M. T., and Manfreda, S.: Seeding metrics for image velocimetry performances in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9229, 2021.

EGU21-10378 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis for the environmental assessment of the Pesqueria River in Northeast Mexico, using UAS and multi-spectral imagery 

Diana Laura Mireles Soria, Fabiola Doracely Yépez Rincón, Nelly Lucero Ramírez Serrato, Maria Gabriela Ortiz Martínez, Adrián Leonardo Ferriño Fierro, and Victor Hugo Guerra Cobián

Urbanization is the dominant force shaping social, economic, and environmental life in the 21 century. Urban areas will become essential to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) established by the United Nations in their 2030 Agenda. Local governments must identify the vulnerable ecosystems to make cities inclusive, safe, and resilient (SDG 11). In Latin America, urban rivers are vulnerable ecosystems, negatively impacted by rapid urbanization. Furthermore, detailed geospatial information of urban rivers is not updated frequently, therefore available data doesn’t reflect changes occurring due to rapid urban development processes affecting the quality of water, sediments, or vegetation health. This research uses a GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) for the environmental assessment of the Pesqueria River as a decision tool to facilitate mitigation focused strategies. The developed method has used the pixel to pixel data from socio-economical, environmental, topographical, geological, and hydrological factors affecting the environmental health of urban rivers. Census data, geological formation or soil type were obtained from official information; reflectance indices and vegetation height were obtained using aerial photogrammetry with near-infrared and red bands; terrain and hydrological analysis used digital elevation models derived from LIDAR; land cover was created using a SENTINEL 2 image; and water quality data was obtained from field sampled raised and analyzed with traditional laboratory analysis of Chemical Oxygen Demand and validated also with official data. Results implied the generation of the thematic maps with ranges from 1 (very low quality) to 5 (very high quality) according to the environmental quality assessment. For the GIS-MCDA, the values of each map were converted to the same scale, each criterion was weighted in function of its importance according to the literature review and the objective of this research, and there were aggregated by the way of a lineal combination. The result is a map that shows the level of mitigation or conservation priority along the river. This map can offer information to the stakeholders in a relatively short time and accelerate the actions aimed to protect the quality of this important urban ecosystem. 

How to cite: Mireles Soria, D. L., Yépez Rincón, F. D., Ramírez Serrato, N. L., Ortiz Martínez, M. G., Ferriño Fierro, A. L., and Guerra Cobián, V. H.: GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis for the environmental assessment of the Pesqueria River in Northeast Mexico, using UAS and multi-spectral imagery , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10378, 2021.

EGU21-15468 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Large-Eddy Simulation in LSPIV techniques: the study of surface turbolence

Francesco Alongi, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Enrico Napoli, Dario Pumo, and Leonardo V. Noto

In recent years, technological advances have been observed in environmental monitoring field, leading to a rapid spread of innovative technologies overcoming many historical challenges. In river monitoring field the use of image-based techniques provides non-intrusive measurements ensuring the best safety conditions for operators. The most used optical methods are the Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) and the Large-Scale Particle Tracking Velocimetry (LSPTV).

In LSPIV and LSPTV techniques a floating tracer is introduced on the water surface and its motion is recorded by commercial devices (e.g. digital cameras). Resulting videos are then processed by free and open source software which applies a statistical cross-correlation analysis to provide the instantaneous surface velocity field.

The aim of this work is to investigate the performance of the most widely used LSPIV software in estimating the surface velocity field taking into account the presence of turbulent structures. Indeed a typical feature of natural river is the presence of turbulent eddies which makes the tracer patterns above the water surface difficult to predict. The evaluation of tracer particle displacement is further complicated by the negative phenomenon of aggregation; it influences cross-correlation causing an incorrect estimation of the velocity vectors.

The study of the hydraulic turbulence of a natural river has been tackled from a numerical point of view. PANORMUS (Parallel Numerical Open-Source Model for Unsteady Flow Simulations) package (Napoli, 2011) has been used by adopting a LES (Large Eddy Simulation) scheme. PANORMUS is a numerical tool coded to solve the 3D momentum equations for incompressible flows (Navier-Stokes and Reynolds equations) using the Finite-Volume Method (FVM). The analyses were carried out on real cases modelled with PANORMUS-LES package. The hydraulic reconstructed domains are characterised by regular cross sections, accurately derived from real topographic survey campaigns, and low river-bed roughness (smooth concrete surface).

Synthetic sequences of tracer motion were derived from the hydraulic model and then processed by using LSPIV software.

The results of such numerical analyses have allowed an evaluation of LSPIV performance assessing the errors in terms of mean value of the surface velocity field and velocity along transverse transects.

How to cite: Alongi, F., Ciraolo, G., Napoli, E., Pumo, D., and Noto, L. V.: Large-Eddy Simulation in LSPIV techniques: the study of surface turbolence, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15468, 2021.

EGU21-15531 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Mapping surface water quality in Myanmar using aquatic drones

Rui Pedroso de Lima, Thom Bogaard, and Robbert De Lange

Water resources in Myanmar are increasingly affected by anthropogenic pressure and climate change related impacts. At the Inle Lake a unique village is located on the water in close proximity to intense fishing/farming activities. The nearby floating gardens provide invaluable resources for local communities, who are highly vulnerable to changes to water quality in the lake. Diversely, within the city of Yangon, the Kandawgyi lake is a popular recreational area which has become heavily affected by excessive algae proliferation. The deterioration of water quality Is likely caused by uncontrolled untreated wastewater, and poses a risk to the citizens. Finally, rivers such as the Pan Hlaing River, flow through industrial zones and collect waste water discharges.

Monitoring in these regions is scarce and limited to a few point-sampling locations. Local stakeholders lack adequate tools to monitor the needed parameters and are in need of reliable and updated baseline water quality data to support them in setting-up sustainable water management strategies. Tools such as aquatic drones and in-situ sensors are innovative ways of monitoring water quality and ecology that could contribute for effectively gathering valuable environmental data.

In this project, aquatic drones (both underwater and surface) were equipped with water quality sensors and cameras for low-cost and rapid assessment of surface water quality at high spatial resolution. The drones are able to navigate autonomously through way-points while collecting geo-referenced data. This study aims at field-testing of two affordable aquatic drones with sensors to map water quality parameters in different types of water systems (large lake, urban lake, river). This study reports the challenges encountered, and evaluates the resulting dataset/maps are in relation to the cost and value for the local stakeholders (ongoing research).

At the Inle Lake, results show varying concentrations of the different parameters that were measured. Low dissolved oxygen levels were found within the villages and underneath floating gardens, while chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria levels were low across the whole lake. Underwater images show the presence of fish and provide insights into the aquatic ecosystems. At the Kandawgyi Lake, the generated water quality maps illustrate the spatial distribution of the different parameters, and two main areas of contamination could be identified (high algae content, low dissolved oxygen, high E-coli concentrations). At the Pan Hlaing river, the plotted data show degrading levels of dissolved oxygen concentrations, indicating potential effects caused by industry outlets.

The water quality maps that were generated with this data are very illustrative of the condition of the water bodies and the location of contaminations hotspots. The measurement process was accompanied by stakeholders and local universities, which contributed to stimulate capacity building and to create awareness for water quality related problems. As follow-up activities, these results will be used to draft a long-term water quality monitoring plan for local Myanmar students to continue collecting water quality data at these lakes. The detected issues are being discussed with local stakeholders, as well as the possibilities for establishing a larger scale monitoring campaign using this type of monitoring tools.

How to cite: Pedroso de Lima, R., Bogaard, T., and De Lange, R.: Mapping surface water quality in Myanmar using aquatic drones, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15531, 2021.

EGU21-7134 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Riverscape-scale airborne TIR assessment of weirs and riparian cover effects on lowland river temperature 

Baptiste Marteau, André Chandesris, Flavie Cernesson, Kristell Michel, Lise Vaudor, and Hervé Piégay

The development of Airborne Infrared Thermal sensing (TIR) is an example of how technological advancements and the field that they focus on have fostered one another. The pace at which global change is occurring has fed the demand for better understanding of the thermal behaviour of rivers. In turn, the improvement of remote sensing and data processing techniques has provided researchers and managers with new tools to apprehend such aspects at ever larger scales. Still, recent studies have mostly focussed on rivers showing little human alteration, with a particular interest on groundwater–surface water interactions. Lowland streams are scarcely considered when it comes to the study of temperature despite their widespread occurrence, their relatively high degree of disturbance and the risks that they face in the light of temperature rising following climate change. Some of these streams already display critically high maximum summer temperatures and their state is likely to worsen in the future, putting all compartments of biota at risk.

The aims of this project were twofold. We first tested the applicability of airborne TIR to study lowland, slow-flowing stream reaches draining agricultural catchments, some of which being particularly narrow and sinuous. We then sought to understand the role of different environmental factors, observed in such context, on driving river temperature during the warmest days of the year. A number of anthropogenic actions such as clear-cutting of riparian trees, stream rectification and the construction of weirs are likely to influence the longitudinal temperature profile of such streams. By choosing rivers with no or limited groundwater inputs, we were able to quantify the relative role of each of the three tested factors and identify stream sections showing critically high maximum temperature over the summer.

A final step was proposed to upscale these results in order to identify sections of streams showing high risks of reaching critically high summer temperature at a regional network scale. To do so, we used a combination of high resolution land-cover data, digital elevation models and other existing databases (e.g. national inventory of weirs). Identification of the risks in relation with the relative contribution of the different factors is key to process-based river management. This type of output is valuable to river basin managers and decision makers as it can be used to implement targeted restoration initiatives or remediation actions in areas where these have higher chances of being effective.

How to cite: Marteau, B., Chandesris, A., Cernesson, F., Michel, K., Vaudor, L., and Piégay, H.: Riverscape-scale airborne TIR assessment of weirs and riparian cover effects on lowland river temperature , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7134, 2021.

We present a velocimetry method, which we refer to as Infrared Quantitative Velocimetry (IR-QIV), that uses images of thermal patterns, captured in the infrared, on the surface of rivers or other water bodies, to calculate the time-resolved instantaneous two-dimensional surface velocity field. The method works in all natural light conditions (day or night), and under most weather conditions, by tracking thermal patterns in the surface of the water, and is therefore suitable for a large range of flows and environments. The method, is a form of remote sensing and has significant advantages over traditional (visible-light) PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry) or LSPIV (Large Scale PIV) methods for non-contact measurement of water surface velocity field, as it requires no particle 'seeding' or contact with the water. 

Measurements of instantaneous water flow velocity, from which turbulence metrics are calculated, are important for advancing the understanding of river hydrodynamics beyond fundamentals such as discharge and mean velocity. However, most velocity measurement methods used in the field are capable of measuring at a point, or along a transect, but not over a two-dimensional area. Additionally, tools such as ADCPs generally require temporal and spatial averaging, and therefore can not resolve instantaneous velocities.

Image-based velocimetry methods, including IR-QIV and LSPIV, measure at the surface of the water and over a large area. However, methods that utilize visible-light imagery, such as LSPIV, require external illumination at night, and are challenged by the relatively homogeneous appearance of the water surface, often requiring either naturally occurring, or added 'seeding' particles, that are advected by the flow. Due the intermittent availability of seeding or surface texture, spatial or temporal averaging is often required, limiting the technique to mean velocity measurements.

These limitations do not apply to IR-QIV since under natural conditions a rich texture of temperature differences exist at the surface of the water due to spatially heterogeneous air/water heat exchange. IR-QIV is capable of calculating the instantaneous velocity at high accuracy and resolution, in space and time (centimeter scale, several Hz), over large areas—up to thousands of square meters. The instantaneous velocity measurements can be used to calculate metrics of turbulence to inform applications such as the study of river and other surface water dynamics; small-scale hydrodynamics near flow features such as water diversions, junctions, obstacles, and river bends; fishery management; gas transfer measurement; non-contact estimation of bathymetry, discharge and bed stress, and more.

We present instantaneous velocity and turbulence metrics measured at sites in the Sacramento River, (California, USA,) made using IR-QIV. Additionally, we discuss issues related to uncertainty analysis in velocimetry techniques using oblique camera viewing angles, and pattern tracking in images containing gradients of intensity (not discrete particles), as well as effects of camera noise. These considerations are relevant to all types of large scale image-based velocimetry, regardless of wavelength of image collection (visible-light or IR), and can be used to inform and improve measurements from both fixed and mobile platforms such, as UASs.

How to cite: Schweitzer, S. and Cowen, E.: Large-Scale, Accurate, High Resolution, Measurements of River Surface Velocity and Turbulence Metrics Using Thermal Infrared Images, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13623, 2021.

EGU21-9825 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

Machine Learning Based Surface Velocimetry

Saber Ansari, Colin D. Rennie, Elizabeth C. Jamieson, Ousmane Seidou, and Shawn P. Clark

Streamflow measurement is of great importance in hydrological research, water management and water infrastructure design. Traditional measurement methods typically employ intrusive techniques, and under certain conditions, obtaining accurate streamflow data with these techniques can be challenging because of safety concerns, especially in some critical circumstances, such as during flood flows. The advent of new instrumentation and technologies, and in particular advances in digital imagery, has led to the emergence of non-intrusive novel image-based technologies that can be used to estimate surface velocity, which in turn can be used to estimate streamflow. Image based technologies, most of which are based on correlation between consecutive images, have the potential for remote and on demand measurements and can provide data when the application of other traditional methods are not possible, reliable or safe. In this study, we present a novel machine learning based optical flow algorithm for streamflow surface velocimetry estimation. The developed algorithm is tested in different flow conditions and using drone and fixed photogrammetry. This method appears to outperform all the other available image-based surface velocimetry approaches (i.e. correlation based and classical optical flow methods). Moreover, this method requires the least user involvement for velocity estimation and thus reduces the impact or arbitrary choices linked to user expertise.

How to cite: Ansari, S., Rennie, C. D., Jamieson, E. C., Seidou, O., and Clark, S. P.: Machine Learning Based Surface Velocimetry, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9825, 2021.

EGU21-5880 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2

OpenRiverCam, open-source operational discharge monitoring with low-cost cameras

Hessel Winsemius, Frank Annor, Rick Hagenaars, Wim Luxemburg, Gijs Van den Munckhoff, Paul Heeskens, Jacquiline Dominic, Pascal Waniha, Yahaya Mahamudu, Halima Abdallah, Ge Verver, and Nick Van de Giesen

River flow observations are notoriously difficult to sustain. A site’s setup,operation and maintenance requires expensive equipment, repetitive field work, and physical contact of instruments and people with water. These issues compounded with the fact that rivers may change their course and behaviour in time, and sites are mostly bound to river crossings such as bridges, make equipment susceptible to theft and vandalism. Over the last decade, several contributors in science have pioneered the use of computer vision methods such as Particle Image Velocimetry, Particle Tracking Velocimetry, and Dense Optical Flow to measure stream velocities, and interpret river flow from short movie snapshots. This has resulted in research oriented software such as FUDAA-LSPIV and a limited set of proprietary software aimed for operational use.

In this contribution we will share and demonstrate the first version of OpenRiverCam, a new fully open-source, user-friendly, low cost and sustainable web-software stack with API to establish and maintain river rating curves (relationships  between geometry and river discharge) in small to medium sized streams based on the aforementioned computer vision methods. The software is co-designed with practitioners from The Netherlands (Waterboard Limburg and KNMI) and Tanzania (Wami - Ruvu Basin Authority and TMA) with the principle that organizations should be able to establish and maintain operational flow monitoring sites and networks at low costs. We demonstrate it through operational feeds from two first sites (Geul River, Limburg - The Netherlands and Chuo Kikuu - Dar es Salaam, Tanzania). 

The software stack will allow a practitioner in hydrology to monitor discharge and maintain a rating curve at low cost with simple yet robust equipment. The required set-up contains a permanent camera providing a view of the river surface and a permanent staff gauge for water level readings. Occasionally a bathymetric survey of the river’s cross section is required that can be performed with standard surveying equipment. The open source software stack is available at no costs and contains a separate python library for processing in case a researcher wishes to use the stack. The software operates with a web-client that connects to a locally or globally deployable server stack (laptop,  desktop, local server or cloud) with database, front-end server and workers, so that scalability is warranted. Other than existing software, OpenRiverCam offers: adding and maintenance of sites and cameras; automated retrieval and processing of movies and rating curve analysis, all in a fully open-source code base. The software can therefore be operated with local people, local devices and open software at any scale leading to job creation and locally sustainable services for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and their service providers. We plan to extend the software with operational water level measurements and possibly other relevant environmental parameters such as sediment deposit segmentation.

How to cite: Winsemius, H., Annor, F., Hagenaars, R., Luxemburg, W., Van den Munckhoff, G., Heeskens, P., Dominic, J., Waniha, P., Mahamudu, Y., Abdallah, H., Verver, G., and Van de Giesen, N.: OpenRiverCam, open-source operational discharge monitoring with low-cost cameras, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5880, 2021.

EGU21-14276 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Hydromorphological monitoring of individual river reaches with UAV-data – image-based measurement of bathymetry and flow velocity

Anette Eltner, László Bertalan, and Eliisa Lotsari

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have become a commonly used measurement tool in geomorphology due to their affordable cost, flexibility, and ease of use. They are regularly used in fluvial geomorphology, among other fields, because the high spatiotemporal resolution of UAV data makes it possible to assess the continuum rather than relying on single samples.

In this study, UAV data are used to hydro-morphologically describe three different river reaches of lengths between 150 and 1000 m. Specifically, the surface flow velocity and bathymetry of the rivers were reconstructed. The flow velocities were calculated using the Particle Tracking Velocimetry (PTV) method applied to UAV video sequences. In addition, UAV-based imagery was acquired to perform 3D reconstruction above and below the water surface using SfM (Structure from Motion) photogrammetry, taking into account refraction effects as well as frame processing to increase the visibility of underwater features. Reference data for flow velocities were generated at selected positions using current meters as well as ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) readings. The image-based calculated bathymetry was compared with RTK-GNSS sampling depth measurements and also ADCP data.

The developed workflow enables rapid and regular measurement of hydrological and morphological data of river channels. This ultimately enables multi-temporal assessment and significantly improves hydro-morphodynamic modelling, in particular their calibration.

How to cite: Eltner, A., Bertalan, L., and Lotsari, E.: Hydromorphological monitoring of individual river reaches with UAV-data – image-based measurement of bathymetry and flow velocity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14276, 2021.

HS1.1.5 – Experimental hydrology and hydraulics in Geosciences

During the last decades, more and more researchers have concentrated their work on the study of overland flow and associated transport processes: new developments, innovative techniques and breakthroughs are being presented year after year, which is noteworthy. Whilst experimental hydrology has played an important role in many of these studies, it is not always acknowledged the main difficulties, limitations, challenges, but also advantages and opportunities in this study approach.

 

Bearing on personal involvement in three decades of experimental work in surface hydrology that contributed to improve our understanding of several hydrological processes (e.g. overland flow, sediment transport, rill and interrill erosion, infiltration), this presentation addresses shortly main issues related to the experimental part of that work, conducted in two continents. The work used experimental setups that focused mainly in the study of rainfall-runoff, overland flow and associated transport processes, namely water erosion. Experiments were conducted in natural, agricultural and urban surfaces, both in disturbed and undisturbed conditions or samples. Special attention has been given to mulching, wind-driven rain, and on the use of thermal tracers. The input in field-based studies was natural rainfall, whereas simulated rainfall simulators and/or run-on have been applied within laboratory-based experiments. In fact, the adaptability of rainfall simulators to different temporal and spatial scales allowed many experimental designs to suit specific research objectives.

 

This presentation highlights the inherent problems and difficulties in conducting studies to encompass such diverse situations as observed in natural and human-modified surfaces. However, the main objective is to stimulate the discussion and enhance understanding of the requirements of experimental research, both in the laboratory and in the field, since that can contribute to achieve further clarifications in surface hydrology. For example, runoff responses of urban, rural and periurban areas are still not well understood. Experimental research is also essential in multidisciplinary approaches aiming at further improving our knowledge on transports associated with runoff (e.g. litter, virus, microbial contaminants, emerging chemicals found in pharmaceuticals, personal care products, pesticides, industrial and household products, surfactants, metals).

How to cite: de Lima, J. L. M. P.: How useful is experimental hydrology in understanding overland flow and associated transport processes?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12934, 2021.

EGU21-3985 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Measurement of soil hydraulic properties of structured and repacked soils

Urša Pečan, Luka Žvokelj, Jure Ferlin, Vesna Zupanc, and Marina Pintar

Soil hydraulic properties provide important information about soil behavior under unsaturated and saturated conditions. Often sampling of undisturbed soils is not possible and soil samples have to be repacked for laboratory analysis. The HYPROP® measuring system (METERgroup, Munich, Germany) is a convenient method for determination of soil water retention characteristics and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of undisturbed soil samples. It measures the matric potential of the saturated and drying soil sample using two tensiometers placed at different depths. Although the tensiometers are based on a new design that theoretically withstands cavitation at higher tension values, they are still considered to operate in the low tension range. Since soil water retention properties in the low tension range are strongly influenced by soil structure and pore size distribution, we were interested in the changes in hydraulic properties when measured on disturbed and then repacked samples, and undisturbed soil samples. Therefore, we investigated the soil hydraulic properties of three different soil types using the evaporation method on undisturbed and repacked samples. The results provide important insights for the interpretation of the results when the collection of undisturbed samples is not possible, and for designing laboratory experiments with repacked soils.

How to cite: Pečan, U., Žvokelj, L., Ferlin, J., Zupanc, V., and Pintar, M.: Measurement of soil hydraulic properties of structured and repacked soils, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3985, 2021.

Near surface soil hydraulic conductivity is an essential parameter for various hydrological, geotechnical, and environmental-related studies. Currently, many instruments are in practice for evaluating this parameter, both in field, and laboratory. The rainfall simulator (RS) and mini disc infiltrometer (MDI) are two instruments used for the indirect estimation of hydraulic conductivity by many researchers and engineers. However, both the devices differ in their working philosophy and evaluation methodology. While the RS works by considering large soil volumes and providing a positive soil pressure, the MDI works for small sampled volumes and supply negative boundary head. Therefore, the two devices can result in varying estimates of hydraulic conductivity. In this study, a comparative assessment is carried out between the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) estimates from the two instruments using laboratory experiments for two different soil textures (loam and sand). The infiltration results from the RS are analyzed using the Green-Ampt method, and from the MDI is analyzed using the Zhang's method followed by the Kutilek and Nielson method to produce Ks values. The Ks results from both the instruments are compared with the values obtained using the laboratory falling-head permeameter test. A one-way ANOVA and the Fisher’s Least Significant Difference (LSD) test as a posthoc test are carried out to analyze the statistical significance of the differences in the estimates of Ks by the two devices. The results showed that the two devices produced varying Ks results for both the soil textures, with the MDI mean values being one order higher than the RS mean. Compared with the permeameter values, the mean values from the RS were closer to the permeameter than the MDI. However, the ANOVA test and the Fisher’s LSD test reported that the variations between the two devices with that of the permeameter were not significant for both the soil textures. On the other hand, the RS and MDI variations were reported significant by the ANOVA and post hoc test.

How to cite: Naik, A. P. and Pekkat, S.: A Comparative assessment of estimated soil hydraulic conductivity from rainfall simulator and infiltrometer using laboratory repacked soil samples, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7099, 2021.

EGU21-8389 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

On the effect of different moss species on soil erosion, percolation and carbon relocation

Corinna Gall, Lena Grabherr, Martin Nebel, Thomas Scholten, Sonja M. Thielen, and Steffen Seitz

For decades, soil erosion has been a major environmental problem as it degrades the most productive soil layers, which threatens, among other things, food production worldwide. Although these effects have been known for a long time, there are still a variety of challenges to mitigating soil erosion in different ecosystems. As climate change progresses, the risk of soil loss increases, making the preparation of effective solutions very urgent. A current research focus is on the restoration of a protective soil cover following disturbances in the vegetation layer, e.g., through the reestablishment of biological soil crust communities. These are often dominated by bryophytes in humid climates. So far, several studies examined the general protective influence of bryophytes against soil erosion, however only few of them addressed how individual species affect specific erosion processes in detail.

To fill this research gap we investigated the impact of six moss species on soil erosion, percolation and carbon relocation by means of rainfall simulations. Therefore, we used topsoil substrate from four sites in the Schönbuch Nature Park in South Germany which covers different kinds of bedrock and varying soil texture and pH. Subsequently, they were sieved by 6.3 mm and filled into metal infiltration boxes (40 x 30 cm) up to a height of 6.5 cm. The moss species differ in origin (either collected in the field or cultivated in the lab) as well as growth form (pleurocarpous or acrocarpous). Rainfall simulations were performed for bare soil substrates, as well as for moss-covered soil substrates six months later and both in dry and wet conditions. Additionally, we conducted rainfall simulations with leaf and coniferous litter on bare soil substrates. During the simulations we monitored soil moisture in two position - 3 cm depth plus soil surface - with biocrust wetness probes (BWP) and quantified surface runoff, percolation and sediment discharge. Afterwards we determined carbon contents of the sediment and dissolved organic carbon in the liquid phase of runoff and percolated water.

While surface runoff was increased by 5% due to the litter cover compared to the bare soil substrate, sediment discharge decreased to 97%. Runoff rates could also be mitigated by 90 % as a result of the moss cover. Furthermore, due to the dense moss cover sediment rates were almost reduced to zero. Preliminary results show that there are differences between the moss species in terms of sediment discharge, but not in context with runoff. The analyses of carbon contents in surface runoff and the percolated water are still in progress, as is the evaluation of the BWP measurements. These outcomes will be presented at vEGU21.

How to cite: Gall, C., Grabherr, L., Nebel, M., Scholten, T., Thielen, S. M., and Seitz, S.: On the effect of different moss species on soil erosion, percolation and carbon relocation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8389, 2021.

EGU21-9177 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Evaluating stream CO2 outgassing via Drifting and Anchored flux chambers in a controlled flume experiment

Filippo Vingiani, Nicola Durighetto, Marcus Klaus, Jakob Schelker, Thierry Labasque, and Gianluca Botter

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from running waters represent a key component of the global carbon cycle. However, quantifying CO2 fluxes across air-water boundaries remains challenging due to practical difficulties in the estimation of reach-scale standardized gas exchange velocities (k600) and water equilibrium concentrations. Whereas craft-made floating chambers supplied by internal CO2 sensors represent a promising technique to estimate CO2 fluxes from rivers, the existing literature lacks of  rigorous  comparisons  among  differently  designed chambers and deployment techniques. Moreover, as of now the uncertainty of k600 estimates from chamber data has not been evaluated.  Here, these issues were addressed analyzing the results of a flume experiment carried out in the Summer of 2019 in the Lunzer:::Rinnen - Experimental Facility (Austria). During the experiment, 100 runs were performed  using two different chamber designs (namely, a Standard Chamber and a Flexible Foil chamber with an external floating system and a flexible sealing) and two different deployment modes (drifting and anchored). The runs were performed using various combinations of discharge and channel slope, leading to variable turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates (1.5 10-3< ε < 1 10-1 m2 s-3). Estimates of gas exchange velocities were in line with the existing literature (4 < k600 < 32 m d-1), with a general increase of k600 for larger turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates. The Flexible Foil chamber gave consistent k600 patterns in response to changes in the slope and/or the flow rate. Moreover, Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter measurements indicated a limited increase of the turbulence induced by the Flexible Foil chamber on the flow field (22 % increase in ε, leading to a theoretical 5 % increase in k600).
The  uncertainty  in  the  estimate  of  gas  exchange  velocities  was  then estimated  using  a  Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) procedure. Overall, uncertainty in k600 was moderate to high, with enhanced uncertainty in high-energy setups. For the anchored mode, the standard deviations of k600 were between 1.6 and 8.2 m d-1, whereas significantly higher values were obtained in drifting mode. Interestingly, for the Standard Chamber the uncertainty was larger (+ 20 %) as compared to the Flexible Foil chamber.  Our study suggests that a Flexible Foil design and the anchored deployment might be useful techniques to enhance the robustness and the accuracy of CO2 measurements in low-order streams. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the value of analytical and numerical tools in the identification of accurate estimations for gas exchange velocities.
These findings have important implications for improving estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and reaeration rates in running waters.

How to cite: Vingiani, F., Durighetto, N., Klaus, M., Schelker, J., Labasque, T., and Botter, G.: Evaluating stream CO2 outgassing via Drifting and Anchored flux chambers in a controlled flume experiment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9177, 2021.

EGU21-14426 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Hydraulic roughness estimation in vegetated floodplains

Lisdey Veronica Herrera Gomez, Giovanni Ravazzani, Michele Ferri, and Marco Mancini

The continuous interaction between riparian vegetation and water has important effects on the hydraulics of a river, mainly onto the flood events propagation. Vegetation is a fundamental part of the river ecosystem, but its stage and growth need to be monitored and controlled, especially when the river passes through a densely urbanized area. In fact, vegetation obstructs the streamflow by reducing the hydraulic cross-section area and increasing the roughness of the floodplains and the relative flood risk.

In this study, experiments have been performed at the Fantoli Hydraulic Laboratory at Politecnico di Milano, to validate the methodologies that estimate the hydraulic roughness of vegetated river floodplains, starting from the vegetation properties such as size, density and elastic modulus of a case study. A model based on the mechanical properties of vegetation was used to identify the most suitable material to reproduce the dynamic behaviour of real vegetation on a laboratory scale. The tests were carried out for different spatial configurations of trees, densities and submerged conditions.

The analysis, in addition to relying on experimental work, involves the installation of six piezoresistive pressure sensors located both in the floodplains and in the main channel, to monitor head losses in a representative reach of the river under study. The field measurements allow validation of the approach used in laboratory tests.

How to cite: Herrera Gomez, L. V., Ravazzani, G., Ferri, M., and Mancini, M.: Hydraulic roughness estimation in vegetated floodplains, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14426, 2021.

EGU21-5400 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

A physical model demonstrating critical zone structure and flow processes in headwaters

Xuhui Shen, Jintao Liu, Wanjie Wang, Xiaole Han, Jie Zhang, and Guofang Li

Equipped with complex terrain structure, physical models provide an alternative way in understanding and modeling how critical zone shapes hydrologic processes in headwaters for research and education in hydrology. However, this type of physical models is limited by frustrating rain-erosion or gully-erosion. Herein, in order to replace the real-world backfilling soil, we drew on the experience of normal concrete workmanship and adjusted the raw material’s proportion for three times. And it is found that saturated hydraulic conductivity (SHC) and field moisture capacity (FMC) are both well correlated with bulk density (BD) for the developed materials in three cases. Thereby, based on the strongest correlation (R2=0.75) between SHC and BD, two-layer alternative soil has been designed through altering BD in the physical model with complex terrain. The SHC values of alternative soil are close to that of the natural soil while the FMC values are far lower. Additionally, the non-uniform scaling of bedrock terrain was applied for the convenience of teaching and construction by zooming out a steep 0.31-ha zero-order basin 130 times horizontally and 30 times vertically. And multiple observation items, including free water level, temperature and humidity of soil, as well as outflow could provide potential opportunity to explore the role of single or combined critical zone’s element in modulating streamflow. We’d like to share this effective tool to facilitate the development of critical zone science and enrich experimental teaching methods.

How to cite: Shen, X., Liu, J., Wang, W., Han, X., Zhang, J., and Li, G.: A physical model demonstrating critical zone structure and flow processes in headwaters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5400, 2021.

EGU21-13721 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Using computer vision to monitor varying water levels: an exploratory laboratory experience

Jorge Isidoro, Ricardo Martins, and João de Lima

Monitoring water levels is fundamental in a variety of fields within geosciences, hydraulics, and hydrology. Examples of this can be found in the field in rivers, reservoirs, or surface runoff while, at a much lower scale, in the laboratory, e.g., open channel flow. This is an area of ​​great complexity, due to the large diversity of spatial and temporal scales of hydraulic systems and phenomena such as the non-linearity of fluid mechanics, sediment or pollutant transport, turbulence, the interactions between water and solid surfaces (natural or artificial), or atmospheric boundary conditions. The last decade has brought important advances in techniques associated with the acquisition and analysis of images, techniques encompassed in what is currently called “computer vision”.

In this work, a methodology based on image treatment and segmentation techniques was developed, which allows the detection of the free flow water surface over time in laboratory conditions using simple video equipment.

The objective of this work was to develop and validate an algorithm for detecting the free water surface with high temporal resolution. Other specific objectives were: (i) to validate the algorithm against measurements in a steady-state flow; (ii) to test the algorithm for accentuated oscillations of the free surface resulting from different bed geometries, slope, and discharge; and (iii) to assert the feasibility of the systematic use of non-specialized and inexpensive video equipment as a level measuring device, without compromising its accuracy.

All laboratory work took place at the Laboratory of Hydraulics, Water Resources and Environment of the Department of Civil Engineering of the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the University of Coimbra. The channel has dimensions of 4.00m × 0.15m (L×W) and the slope is adjustable. Water is supplied to the channel, in a closed circuit, from a reservoir by means of a pump and piping system, and the flow controlled by a ball valve. The algorithm developed for detecting the free surface is based on the acquisition, treatment, analysis, and segmentation of images. MATLAB® was used to code functions to recognize the edges present in an image by the image intensity gradient as well as the best-defined segment present in the image, which, in this case, corresponds to the free water surface.

How to cite: Isidoro, J., Martins, R., and de Lima, J.: Using computer vision to monitor varying water levels: an exploratory laboratory experience, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13721, 2021.

EGU21-14170 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Soil water dynamics in forested and irrigated sites in Cyprus 

Marinos Eliades, Adriana Bruggeman, Hakan Djuma, Melpomeni Siakou, Panagiota Venetsanou, Christos Zoumides, and Christof Huebner

The water storage in soil is a dynamic process that changes with soil, vegetation and climate properties. Water retention curves, that describe the relationship between the soil water content (θ) and the soil water potential (ψ), are used to model soil water flow and root water uptake by the plants. The overall objective of this study is to derive the retention curves of soils at two forested (Agia Marina, Platania) and two irrigated (Galata, Strakka) sites in Cyprus from in-situ soil moisture and soil water potential observations. 
The long-term (1980 – 2010) average annual rainfall at Strakka olive grove (255 m elevation), Agia Marina P. brutia forest (640 m), Galata peach orchard (784 m) and Platania P. brutia forest (1160 m) is 298, 425, 502 and 839 mm, respectively.  The average soil depth at Agia Marina is 14 cm, while at other sites it is around 1 m. We installed a total of 18 TEROS21 soil water potential sensors, 37 5TM and 19 SMT100 soil moisture sensors, at different soil depths at the four sites. 
Results from January 2019 to January 2021 show differences in the water retention curves of the four sites due to different soil textures. At the forested sites, θ reached wilting point at the summer period, indicating that trees extend their roots beyond the soil profile, to the bedrock in order to survive. At the irrigated sites, θ exceeds field capacity during irrigation, indicating over-irrigation. We found different water retention relations after rainfall and after irrigation, indicating that irrigation has an uneven spatial distribution. These findings suggest that the irrigation in these fields is not optimal and farmers may need to increase the number of irrigation drippers, while reducing the irrigation amount per dripper. From a monitoring perspective, increasing the number of sensors may give a better representation of the soil moisture conditions. 
The research has received financial support from the ERANETMED3 program, as part of the ISOMED project (Environmental Isotope Techniques for Water Flow Accounting), funded through the Cyprus Research and Innovation Foundation.

How to cite: Eliades, M., Bruggeman, A., Djuma, H., Siakou, M., Venetsanou, P., Zoumides, C., and Huebner, C.: Soil water dynamics in forested and irrigated sites in Cyprus , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14170, 2021.

EGU21-2616 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Water flow mechanisms and unproductive water losses in rice-based cropping systems in the humid tropics

Amani Mahindawansha, Philipp Kraft, Christoph Külls, and Lutz Breuer

In rice production areas in the world, increasing water scarcity is a major problem. Among the water saving techniques, integrating water saving non-flooded crops into the flooded rice system during the dry season is one of the promising water-saving approaches. Therefore, there is a necessity to improve the understanding of the water flow dynamics and losses in crop rotational systems under different climatic conditions in irrigated agricultural fields. That understanding can be used to lower the water requirements to build more efficient water management systems. We experimentally investigated the water flow processes and water losses by introducing non-flooded crops during the dry season (dry rice and maize) followed by flooded rice in the wet season and compared this to flooded rice in both seasons. We measured stable isotopes of water (δ2H and δ18O) in extracted soil water and liquid samples (Groundwater, ponded surface water, rainwater, and irrigation water). The Craig–Gordon equation was applied to estimate the fraction of evaporation losses. Results reveal that the soil isotopic profile patterns reflect the soil water transport processes and differ depending on the irrigation frequencies and crop diversification. Matrix flow and slow soil water infiltration, soil evaporation, and preferential flow via desiccation cracks were identified as the main water flow mechanisms in the irrigated fields. During the dry season, the evaporation effect on soil water is higher and water losses decreased from the beginning towards the end of the seasons. However, greater unproductive water losses were estimated during the wet season compared to the dry season. Finally, the results suggested that introducing dry seasonal crops to the crop rotation system for reducing the unproductive water losses is a good alternative method.

 

How to cite: Mahindawansha, A., Kraft, P., Külls, C., and Breuer, L.: Water flow mechanisms and unproductive water losses in rice-based cropping systems in the humid tropics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2616, 2021.

Water temperature, a crucial environmental factor, has a direct impact on almost all ecological and biogeochemical processes. The hydrological and thermal regimes in the Yangtze River have changed greatly due to the constructions of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). To quantify the impact of TGR on the water temperature regime, we present a regression-modeling framework to reconstruct the temporal pattern of flow and temperature variation along the middle reach of the river in the absence of the TGR. By comparing reconstructed water temperatures to observed water temperature for the post-impounded period, the influence of impoundment on water temperature was estimated. Results show that TGR has had a greater impact on water temperature than natural changes in air temperature and discharge. The reservoir acts as a source of cold water in spring, summer and autumn and a warm source in winter. The results of this study illustrate the pronounced effect of the TGR on the temperature regime of the Yangtze River. We hope this study could provide a scientific reference for ecological operation of TGR facing biological conservation.

Note: This study has been published in Journal of Hydrology (Tao, Y., Wang, Y., Rhoads, B., Wang, D., Ni, L. and Wu, J., 2020. Quantifying the impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on water temperature in the middle reach of the Yangtze River. Journal of Hydrology. 582.).

How to cite: Tao, Y., Wang, Y., and Wang, D.: Analysis on impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on water temperature in the middle reach of the Yangtze River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3613, 2021.

EGU21-8526 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Analysis of the active length dynamics on intermittent streams using water presence sensors

Francesca Zanetti, Nicola Durighetto, Filippo Vingiani, and Gianluca Botter

Headwater streams are important for their hydrological function and for their significant contribution to the riverine ecosystems. Nevertheless their study has always been challenging because of the ephemeral and intermittent nature of those streams. Maps representing the active part of the river network are usually drawn after field surveys performed under different hydrologic conditions, which enable an objective evaluation of the temporal changes in the length of the active network. This method is useful to describe seasonal variations of the stream length, but has significant limitations when it comes to the description of event-based changes of the flowing network, provided that visual inspections of entire catchments are highly time-consuming. In this work, electrical resistance (ER) sensors were used to analyze event-based active network dynamics along some of the tributaries of an Alpine creek in northern Italy. Current intensity values were collected every 5 minutes by the sensors and a threshold electrical signal was identified to distinguish between wet and dry status of the reaches where the probes were placed. A statistical analysis revealed a good correlation among the mean current intensity recorded, the exceedance probability of the threshold and the persistency of the nodes. Data collected by the sensors were also interpolated in space along the network to obtain a sequence of maps of the active and dry parts of the stream network. From each map the wet length (L) of the watercourse was derived and linked to the corresponding discharge (Q) at the outlet of the catchment. Small and intense precipitation events had different effects on the variations of Q and L: the network length was found to be more sensitive than discharge to small precipitation inputs; relevant stream flow variations were instead observed only during significant events that originated the largest changes in the active network length.  This heterogeneous behaviour negatively affected the quality of the fitting of empirical discharges vs. wet length data through a power law model. Water presence sensors provide an opportunity to study in depth the spatiotemporal dynamics of the active length of intermittent streams and link such dynamics to the relevant hydrological drivers.

How to cite: Zanetti, F., Durighetto, N., Vingiani, F., and Botter, G.: Analysis of the active length dynamics on intermittent streams using water presence sensors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8526, 2021.

EGU21-9061 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

Groundwater recharge estimates combining soil isotope profiles and classical soil water monitoring techniques

Nina Krüger, Christoph Külls, and Marcel Kock

To improve knowledge of hydrological and hydrogeological flow processes and their dependency on climate conditions it is becoming increasingly important to integrate sensors technology, independent observation methods, and new modeling techniques. Established isotope methods are usually regarded as a supplement and extension to classical hydrological investigation methods but are rarely included in soil water balance models. However, the combination could close knowledge gaps and thus lead to more precise and realistic predictions and therefore to better water management. Within the Wasserpfad project, a project of the Department of Civil Engineering at the TH Lübeck, soil moisture has been measured since May 2018. SMT100 soil moisture sensors from TRUEBNER GmbH are used at depths of 20, 40, 60, and 80 cm. Next to the station a 2m deep soil profile was taken in 2020, to estimate groundwater recharge using stable isotope equilibration methods and cryogenic extraction combined with soil water balance modeling. Vertical profiles of stable isotopes have been determined with a 10-cm resolution and measured with Tunable Diode Laser spectrometry. Percolation through the soil profile has been estimated based on the convolution of a seasonal input function using advection-dispersion transport models. Percolation rate estimate based on environmental isotope profiles results in 230 mm per year. Fitting of the advection-dispersion equation using a sinusoidal isotope input fitted to available time series provides an estimate of 255 mm per year. This difference is due to the dispersion effect on the isotope minima and maxima. The result of modeling the soil moisture data with a soil water balance model integrating the Richards equation for water transport and Penmen-Monteith based calculation of actual evaporation is used to verify the percolation rates. The analysis of soil moisture and isotope data by modeling provides a direct and efficient way to estimate the percolation rate. The combination of isotope methods with classical hydrological measuring techniques offers the possibility to verify results, to calibrate models, or to investigate the limits of isotope methods. Thus, flow processes can be predicted more reliably in the future.

How to cite: Krüger, N., Külls, C., and Kock, M.: Groundwater recharge estimates combining soil isotope profiles and classical soil water monitoring techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9061, 2021.

EGU21-4751 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5 | Highlight

Combining static and portable Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) data to assess catchment scale heterogeneity in soil water content and implications for runoff generation

Katya Dimitrova Petrova, Rafael Rosolem, Chris Soulsby, Mark Wilkinson, Allan Lilly, and Josie Geris

Soil water content (SWC) dynamics can strongly influence catchment runoff generation processes. Knowledge about the amount and spatiotemporal distribution of SWC at the catchment scale can be useful for constraining and evaluating rainfall-runoff models.  While it is still challenging to obtain catchment scale-representative measurements of SWC, recent advances in cosmic ray neutron sensor (CRNS) technology have provided opportunities to obtain hectare scale data on SWC. Here we present a new method for obtaining spatially variable near-surface SWC by combining a high temporal resolution static CRNS sensor with ‘snapshot’ surveys using a portable CRNS. We also explored the role of these soil water storage data for catchment in rainfall-runoff generation models. We used ~4-years of near-surface SWC data from a static CRNS located in a humid mixed-agricultural catchment (~10km2) in Scotland. These data were complemented with at least three ‘snapshot’ portable CRNS surveys in each of the four main soil-land use (SLU) units in the catchment to produce SWC timeseries for each of these units. Two SLU units involved rotational crops under poorly or imperfectly draining mineral soils; one SLU unit typically supports livestock farming on freely draining mineral soils and the fourth, moorland on organic-rich soils.  While the moorland SLU unit on organic soils had the greatest difference in SWC dynamics under the static CRNS and other SLUs, we also found subtle SWC differences between mineral soil SLU units under different agricultural management. We then evaluated the additional information generated by the combined CRNS method in a rainfall-runoff model (HBV-light) calibration of dynamic catchment storage. For the purpose, we used areal weighted SLU SWC timeseries and compared the model calibration to that using the static CRNS alone. In this case, differences were marginal and model efficiencies similar, suggesting that static CRNS data from a landscape-representative location may be sufficient to inform rainfall-runoff model calibration at the catchment scale.  However, this may depend on model structure and the degree to which SWC dynamics vary within the landscape. This study demonstrated the potential of expanding the information value of permanently installed CRNS sensors using portable CRNS surveys in the context of humid mixed-agricultural environment, although testing in different environments would be required to evaluate wider applicability.

How to cite: Dimitrova Petrova, K., Rosolem, R., Soulsby, C., Wilkinson, M., Lilly, A., and Geris, J.: Combining static and portable Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) data to assess catchment scale heterogeneity in soil water content and implications for runoff generation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4751, 2021.

EGU21-9210 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

The Isotopic Composition of Cyprus Precipitation. A Tool of Isotope Hydrology.

Christos Christofi, Adriana Bruggeman, and Christoph Kuells

Monitoring and profiling the isotopic composition of soil water in combination with groundwater isotope hydrology are commonly used in studying flow and transport in soils as well as in estimating groundwater recharge. Establishing the isotopic composition of local precipitation is of essence. Towards this end and in facilitating the application of isotope hydrology in Troodos Fractured Aquifer (TFA), precipitation was monitored in 16 precipitation sampling stations, stretching from the shoreline up to 1725 m above m.s.l., from January of 2015 to December of 2017. A seasonal trend was discerned, with isotopically depleted rainfall occurring in December as opposed to the more enriched autumn and spring rainfall. Northern European air masses appear to prevail during the months of December to January during which d values tend to be on average above 25‰ whereas the more enriched rain with the lowest d values occurs in July. The averaged seasonal effect between 2015 and 2017 on δ18O, δ2H and d values are 4.53‰, 30.98‰ and 14.93‰, respectively. Cyprus’ Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) was found to be equal to δ2H = (6.58±0.13)*δ18O + (12.64±0.91) and a general decrease of 1.22‰ for δ2H and 0.20‰ for δ18O in precipitation was calculated per 100 m altitude.  Similar values have been found by other researchers for the region. These variations in the isotope composition of rainfall can be used to earmark seasonal input of recharge water and for deriving percolation rates from tracing their movement in the soil column.

How to cite: Christofi, C., Bruggeman, A., and Kuells, C.: The Isotopic Composition of Cyprus Precipitation. A Tool of Isotope Hydrology., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9210, 2021.

EGU21-13338 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5 | Highlight

Innovative real-time sensing of flow dynamics in groundwater and sediments to map contaminant spreading

Goedele Verreydt, Niels Van Putte, Timothy De Kleyn, Joris Cool, and Bino Maiheu

Groundwater dynamics play a crucial role in the spreading of a soil and groundwater contamination. However, there is still a big gap in the understanding of the groundwater flow dynamics. Heterogeneities and dynamics are often underestimated and therefore not taken into account. They are of crucial input for successful management and remediation measures. The bulk of the mass of mass often is transported through only a small layer or section within the aquifer and is in cases of seepage into surface water very dependent to rainfall and occurring tidal effects.

 

This study contains the use of novel real-time iFLUX sensors to map the groundwater flow dynamics over time. The sensors provide real-time data on groundwater flow rate and flow direction. The sensor probes consist of multiple bidirectional flow sensors that are superimposed. The probes can be installed directly in the subsoil, riverbed or monitoring well. The measurement setup is unique as it can perform measurements every second, ideal to map rapid changing flow conditions. The measurement range is between 0,5 and 500 cm per day.

 

We will present the measurement principles and technical aspects of the sensor, together with two case studies.

 

The first case study comprises the installation of iFLUX sensors in 4 different monitoring wells in a chlorinated solvent plume to map on the one hand the flow patterns in the plume, and on the other hand the flow dynamics that are influenced by the nearby popular trees. The foreseen remediation concept here is phytoremediation. The sensors were installed for a period of in total 4 weeks. Measurement frequency was 5 minutes. The flow profiles and time series will be presented together with the determined mass fluxes.

 

A second case study was performed on behalf of the remediation of a canal riverbed. Due to industrial production of tar and carbon black in the past, the soil and groundwater next to the small canal ‘De Lieve’ in Ghent, Belgium, got contaminated with aliphatic and (poly)aromatic hydrocarbons. The groundwater contaminants migrate to the canal, impact the surface water quality and cause an ecological risk. The seepage flow and mass fluxes of contaminants into the surface water were measured with the novel iFLUX streambed sensors, installed directly in the river sediment. A site conceptual model was drawn and dimensioned based on the sensor data. The remediation concept to tackle the inflowing pollution: a hydraulic conductive reactive mat on the riverbed that makes use of the natural draining function of the waterbody, the adsorption capacity of a natural or secondary adsorbent and a future habitat for micro-organisms that biodegrade contaminants. The reactive mats were successfully installed and based on the mass flux calculations a lifespan of at least 10 years is expected for the adsorption material.  

How to cite: Verreydt, G., Van Putte, N., De Kleyn, T., Cool, J., and Maiheu, B.: Innovative real-time sensing of flow dynamics in groundwater and sediments to map contaminant spreading, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13338, 2021.

EGU21-14566 | vPICO presentations | HS1.1.5

A daily water balance model with a dynamic wetted area for estimating drainage from soil moisture observations in an irrigated orchard

Adriana Bruggeman, Melpo Siakou, Marinos Eliades, Hakan Djuma, and Christos Zoumides

Drainage below the root zone of irrigated crops and trees is often an unknown component of the water balance. This drainage water could recharge underlying aquifers and flow to streams and is not part of water consumed by crops, as used in water productivity computations. Drainage from fields with irrigation systems that wet only part of the soil is difficult to estimate. The objective of the research was to develop a water balance model with a dynamic wetted area for analyzing soil water balance components from daily soil moisture observations. The method was applied in an olive orchard in Cyprus, with approximately 35% canopy cover. Soil moisture sensors (SMT100, Truebner and 5TM, Decagon) were installed at six trees, at 10-, 20-, 40- and 60-cm depth, approximately 90 cm from the trunk of the tree. Soil moisture was recorded hourly. The trees were irrigated weekly, with a single spaghetti tube with a discharge rate of approximately 135 L/hr. Daily reference evapotranspiration was computed with the Penman-Monteith equation from meteorological observations recorded inside the orchard (WS500, Lufft). Rainfall was measured with a tipping bucket rain gauge (15189, Lambrecht).

The model computes a daily volumetric water balance for the canopy area of the tree. During the irrigation season, soil moisture observations were assumed to represent the soil volume wetted by irrigation. Drainage below the 70-cm root zone occurred when soil moisture exceeded the field capacity, as derived from hourly observations. A canopy-area crop coefficient (Kcc-max) was estimated for all irrigation days without drainage by minimizing the sum of the daily evapotranspiration in excess of the maximum evapotranspiration (Kcc-max ETo). This one-sided error was controlled by maintaining a positive difference between Kcc-max and Kcc the day after irrigation. Wetted areas were subsequently computed for all irrigation days without drainage. For irrigation days with soil moisture above field capacity, the wetted area was adjusted manually, such that drainage was smaller on the second day than on the irrigation day, using a Kcc-max for both days. During the May to November 2019 irrigation season, drainage was 8 mm over the field area, for a field capacity of 36%, a Kcc-max of 1.3, and an error of 16 mm. Assuming a field capacity of 38%, drainage was 3 mm over the field area, with a Kcc-max of 1.4, and an error of 17 mm. Overall, the model provided a quick and robust way of estimating the irrigation water balance components.

This research has received financial support from the ERANETMED3 program, as part of the ISOMED project (Environmental Isotope Techniques for Water Flow Accounting), funded through the Cyprus Research and Innovation Foundation.

How to cite: Bruggeman, A., Siakou, M., Eliades, M., Djuma, H., and Zoumides, C.: A daily water balance model with a dynamic wetted area for estimating drainage from soil moisture observations in an irrigated orchard, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14566, 2021.

HS1.2.1 – Role of hydrology in policy, society and interdisciplinary collaborations: across disciplines and beyond scientists

EGU21-227 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

The construction of reference conditions under the EU Water Framework Directive

Tobias Krueger and James Linton

With this contribution we connect to the 3rd theme of the session, ‘hydrology as practiced within society’. Based on our recent article Linton & Krueger (2020), we demonstrate how the reference conditions and subsequent water quality targets under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) do not exist ‘out there’, waiting to be discovered, but are outcomes of complex negotiations between hydrological, ecological, technical and socio-political realities.

Treating reference conditions and targets as naturally given, as WFD implementation does at least implicitly, upholds a false sense of authority that obscures the manifold choices in the creation of the reference conditions while denying the people charged with implementing the targets or having to live with the resulting water quality an influence over those choices.

We argue that the concept of reference conditions must be abandoned in a world were water everywhere bears the traces of human presence. Instead, water quality targets should be set openly, location-specific and involving those for whom water quality is a matter of concern. We will give examples from other jurisdictions where such an approach is established practice.

References

Linton, J. and Krueger, T. (2020), The Ontological Fallacy of the Water Framework Directive: Implications and Alternatives. Water Alternatives, 13(3): 513-533.

How to cite: Krueger, T. and Linton, J.: The construction of reference conditions under the EU Water Framework Directive, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-227, 2021.

EGU21-8778 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

Structuring the water quality policy problem: Applying Q-methodology to explore perspectives in hydrology, government, and community

Schuyler Houser, Reza Pramana, and Maurits Ertsen

Recognizing the interrelatedness of water management and conceptual value of IWRM, many water resource governance systems are shifting from hierarchical arrangements towards more collaborative and participative networks. Increasing calls for participation recognize the value of drawing on social, political-administrative, and other kinds of knowledge in addition to technical water expertise. Participatory mandates, coordination bodies, and science-policy networks have emerged to facilitate knowledge integration, promote adaptive capacity, and align organizations in poly-centric systems.

Since the maintenance and effectiveness of such arrangements are contingent on trust and alignment rather than command and control, and since diverse stakeholders are engaged to co-produce knowledge, collaborators must grapple with identifying shared goals, developing knowledge management strategies to organize inputs, and attaining early progress to promote ongoing cooperation. But guidance is limited with respect to how such integrative aims are to be accomplished.

This research explores how systematic (but not necessarily convergent) problem structuring can support the forming, reordering, and cohering of water resource networks, especially when a complex issue – in this case, water quality management – rises to prominence on the policy agenda. In the early stages of a water quality project in the Brantas River Basin, Indonesia, stakeholder discussions suggested divergent conceptualizations of water quality and ideas about what conditions ‘matter’. Thus, instead of taking hydrological data as the starting point, this research first asks: What Brantas River(s) are we talking about, and why? Q-methodology is used to identify alternative perspectives on water quality held by a diverse set of stakeholders, including hydrologists. The analysis explores which aspects of the policy problem are consistent, which are contested, and whether problems indicated by hydrological science overlap, conflict, or cohere with those perceived by other stakeholders.

The research posits that, if scientists, engineers, decision-makers, community leaders, and other participants can appreciate areas of convergence and divergence regarding the water quality problem itself, they can lay groundwork for knowledge co-production; recognize opportunities for cooperation; better locate science in the problem space; and identify potential early wins to secure commitment. The research also asks to what extent consensus in problem structuring is necessary, or whether it is sufficient to identify strategies that are acceptable to different ontological viewpoints.

How to cite: Houser, S., Pramana, R., and Ertsen, M.: Structuring the water quality policy problem: Applying Q-methodology to explore perspectives in hydrology, government, and community, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8778, 2021.

Since 2018, the “European Union Water Initiative Plus for Eastern Partnership (EaP) Countries (EUWI+)” has been providing significant assistance in the development of a number of pilot projects focused on the phased implementation of the main provisions of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) related to groundwater monitoring in the Republic of Belarus. The implementation began with the identification (delineation) of groundwater bodies, their characterization, assessment and improvement of groundwater monitoring networks and several groundwater investigations in order to collect the necessary data to assess groundwater risk and status. Just recently, transboundary cooperation with Ukraine, resulted in the identification of common transboundary groundwater corridors and the proposal of a monitoring network for transboundary groundwater.

The next logical step in the implementation of the WFD is the assessment of the quantitative and qualitative groundwater status, which confirms whether the environmental objectives of the WFD for groundwater have been achieved. Thus, in 2020, a draft methodology for assessing the groundwater status in the Republic of Belarus in accordance with the principles of the WFD was developed.

The elaborated draft methodology defines criteria for the assessment of groundwater quantitative and qualitative status (“good” and “poor”) and the assessment of the risk (“at risk” and “not at risk”) whether the environmental objectives of the WFD cannot be achieved. The criteria consider all relevant and related national legislation and legal provisions which are in force and the assessments follow step-by-step implementation procedures.

A preliminary testing of the proposed methodology and a list of open issues that need to be solved complete the work.

The proposed methodological approach is a first attempt and needs to be thoroughly tested with available groundwater monitoring data in the coming months, both for groundwater bodies with dense monitoring networks and groundwater bodies with limited groundwater monitoring, Finally, the approach needs to be intensively discussed at national level before being implemented into national legislation.

How to cite: Vasniova, O., Biarozka, O., Scheidleder, A., and Humer, F.: Proposed methodology for the assessment of groundwater chemical and quantitative status in the Republic of Belarus (in accordance with the principles of the EU Water Framework Directive), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4102, 2021.

EGU21-11041 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

Is scientific research on water-tourism nexus responding to the challenges identified by stakeholders and policy-makers? The case of Benidorm, Spain

Rubén A. Villar-Navascués, Sandra Ricart, Antonio M. Rico-Amorós, and María Hernández-Hernández

Since the middle of the 20th century, urban-tourist development in tourist destinations on the Mediterranean coast has required the creation of complex water supply systems to guarantee a growing water demand. At present, the challenges posed by climate change around the management of water resources requires the implementation of adequate water policies and sustainable environmental solutions to foster the adaptation to a foreseeable future characterized by lower availability of conventional water resources and more recurrent and intense droughts. In this context, the link between the scientific field, the stakeholders from the tourism sector, and the decision-makers is vital to favor viable, effective, and consensual solutions that shift the focus from the objective of guarantee tourist water demand to a sustainability scenario from both an environmental, economic, and social point of view. Therefore, it is relevant to question whether there is a large gap between the actions and focus of attention in each of these three areas (scientific, decision-makers, and stakeholders). In other words, does scientific research related to water consumption by the tourism sector adequately respond to the knowledge needs required by stakeholders and decision-makers to achieve the aforementioned sustainability objectives? Through a literature review, this study addresses the main topics, methodologies, and results related to water consumption in hotels on the Spanish Mediterranean coast and their possible impact on the actions made by managers, decision-makers or stakeholders from the tourism sector. To evaluate the science-policy interface, it has also been made a policy review of the main laws, regulations, and plans developed by the different levels of public administration and other private entities in the tourism sector concerning water consumption in hotels, for the Benidorm case study, located in the southeast of Spain. To identify the measures implemented by stakeholders from the tourism sector to reduce water consumption and their vision about the challenges and barriers in this issue, we have taken into account the results of previous projects in which more than twenty surveys and interviews have been carried out to the hotel managers as well as to the Benidorm hotel association (HOSBEC). Likewise, to contextualize the results of these surveys and interviews, we have analyzed the raw water supply data provided by the entity in charge of this service, the Marina Baja Water Consortium, as well as billing and smart meter data from the hotels, provided by the company in charge of the local water supply service, Hidraqua. The results will make possible to highlight the links and differences found between the problems and research approaches raised from the scientific field, the regulations and plans proposed by the public administration and other private decision-makers and the actions and future challenges identified by the tourism sector in the city of Benidorm. The identification of the existing gaps between the three areas (scientists, policy-makers, and stakeholders) will be useful to reshape the agenda of future research and re-think the role of science when responding to managers and decision-makers’ requests on water management and tourism nexus.

How to cite: Villar-Navascués, R. A., Ricart, S., Rico-Amorós, A. M., and Hernández-Hernández, M.: Is scientific research on water-tourism nexus responding to the challenges identified by stakeholders and policy-makers? The case of Benidorm, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11041, 2021.

EGU21-13592 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

The transition toward resilient water management regimes: where are we now?

Matteo Mannocchi

Hydro-Meteorological Hazards (HMH) such as drought, floods and storm surge have always constituted a threat to social-ecological systems (SES) but, due to increasing uncertainties caused by climate and by rapidly changing socio-economic boundary conditions, it is necessary to step up effort to mitigate the risks. More attention should be devoted to understanding and managing the transition from traditional management regimes to more sustainable and resilient regimes that take into account environmental, technological, economic, institutional and cultural characteristics of river basins.

Since the 1990s many scholars, from both natural and social sciences, have urged to integrate knowledge and shed light on the functioning of the SESs in order to increase resilience to perturbances (Berkes and Folke 1998). As sustainability science is mainly a problem-driven and solution-oriented field that follows a transformational agenda (Lang 2012), it becomes evident that the nexus between environmental, political and institutional dimensions cannot be ignored to accelerate the path toward sustainability.  

There is consensus that the complex, non-linear and rather unpredictable nature of HMHs, exacerbated by climate change, should require a more adaptive (Armitage 2007), flexible and holistic (Holling 2002) management approach that can speed up and reinforce the learning loops to allow for more rapid assessment and implementation of the consequences of new insights and scientific evidence (Pahl Wostle 2007). Cooperation among a wide range of stakeholders with different knowledge, expertise and views is often indicated as a prerequisite to establish a resilient and adaptive water management regime (Olsson et al. 2004). These principles mainstreamed since the beginning of the 2000s and synthesized by concepts like “co-management”, “adaptive and integrated management”, or “adaptive co-management”, are the pillars of what is considered a paradigm shift in water management (Pahl Wostle and Nicola 2011) and have inspired institutional settings, policies, and practices.

However, the debate is still ongoing to determine at what stage of the transition we are in, whether the aforementioned principles have been adopted and translated into practices on a wide scale, and whether and how such practices have contributed to increasing the resilience of the SES. It will be critically examined the literature trying to identify the main trend of the last two decades. The review will be accompanied by the case-studies upon which theories have been built and tested.

How to cite: Mannocchi, M.: The transition toward resilient water management regimes: where are we now?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13592, 2021.

EGU21-599 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

The HydroSocial Cycle approach to deepen on socio-ecological systems analysis and water management

Sandra Ricart and Andrea Castelletti

Balancing socio-ecological systems among competing water demands is a difficult and complex task. Traditional approaches based on limited, linear growth optimization strategies overseen by command/control have partially failed to account for the inherent unpredictability and irreducible uncertainty affecting most water systems due to climate change. Governments and managers are increasingly faced with understanding driving-factors of major change processes affecting multifunctional systems. In the last decades, the shift to address the integrated management of water resources from a technocratic ‘‘top-down’’ to a more integrated ‘‘bottom-up’’ and participatory approach was motivated by the awareness that water challenges require integrated solutions and a socially legitimate planning process. Assuming water flows as physical, social, political, and symbolic matters, it is necessary to entwining these domains in specific configurations, in which key stakeholders and decision-makers could directly interact through social-learning. The literature on integrated water resources management highlights two important factors to achieve this goal: to deepen stakeholders’ perception and to ensure their participation as a mechanism of co-production of knowledge. Stakeholder Analysis and Governance Modelling approaches are providing useful knowledge about how to integrate social-learning in water management, making the invisible, visible. The first one aims to identify and categorize stakeholders according to competing water demands, while the second one determines interactions, synergies, overlapping discourses, expectations, and influences between stakeholders, including power-relationships. The HydroSocial Cycle (HSC) analysis combines both approaches as a framework to reinforce integrated water management by focusing on stakeholder analysis and collaborative governance. This method considers that water and society are (re)making each other so the nature and competing objectives of stakeholders involved in complex water systems may affect its sustainability and management. Using data collected from a qualitative questionnaire and applying descriptive statistics and matrices, the HSC deepens on interests, expectations, and power-influence relationships between stakeholders by addressing six main issues affecting decision-making processes: relevance, representativeness, recognition, performance, knowledge, and collaboration. The aim of this contribution is to outline this method from both theory and practice perspective by highlighting the benefits of including social sciences approaches in transdisciplinary research collaborations when testing water management strategies affecting competing and dynamic water systems.

How to cite: Ricart, S. and Castelletti, A.: The HydroSocial Cycle approach to deepen on socio-ecological systems analysis and water management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-599, 2021.

Knowledge has been shown to be more effectively implemented in practice when produced in collaboration between researchers and other stakeholders as the co-produced knowledge is more likely to be accepted and found relevant. Knowledge co-production processes have however been found guilty of depoliticizing and hiding political struggles to the end of reinforcing existing unequal power relations and prevent broad societal transformation from taking place. From this perspective, knowledge co-production can come into conflict with participatory governance that focuses on the empowerment and capacity building of actors, social justice and advocacy. In this presentation I take a closer look at this conflictual perspective and propose a research focus on knowledge practices for exploring and analyzing participatory governance options for flood risk management (FRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR). I do this by exemplifying and presenting a research design developed within the newly started PARADeS-project.

The PARADeS-project is a research project led by German research institutions in close collaboration with partners in Ghana and with the overall aim to contribute to enhancing Ghana’s national flood risk and disaster management strategy. Co-production of knowledge is foreseen to take place in several workshops including collaborative modelling, scenario- and policy back-casting exercises. One of the planned project outputs is a concept of participatory governance in FRM and DRR based on the findings from a stakeholder analysis, a policy network analysis and a participatory assessment of different policy options.

In this project context a research focus on stakeholders’ knowledge practices can be used to inform and improve the participatory governance concept and facilitate its implementation process. Knowledge is used by stakeholders as a powerful resource in suggesting certain policy options and convincing others of their necessity. Knowledge practices entail how actors use knowledge to argue, convince and make decisions. Through knowledge practices, stakeholders decide what knowledge to base decisions on and how to convince others of their position using that knowledge. What knowledge becomes accepted as legitimate in such interactions - often deliberative settings - can be decisive for the acceptability of any policy option. It is therefore important to study not only the different types of stakeholders and technical options for FRM and DRR, but the interaction between stakeholders and how they use information and co-create knowledge - the knowledge practices.

Within the presentation I discuss the proposed research design for how to study knowledge practices and how to make use of these findings when going from research project and co-production of knowledge to a concept of participatory governance in flood risk management and disaster risk reduction in Ghana.

How to cite: Wallin, I.: From co-production of knowledge to a participatory governance concept: a research design focusing on knowledge practices in flood risk management and disaster risk reduction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15643, 2021.

EGU21-10819 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Stakeholder Participation in Flood-Related Disaster Risk Management in Ghana

Fafali Roy Ziga-Abortta, Sylvia Kruse, Britta Höllermann, and Joshua Ntajal

Stakeholder Participation is recognized in both flood risk governance research and praxis. It is argued to emphasize empowerment, equity, learning and trust among actors. Projects that fail to adequately understand stakeholder dynamics turn to have undesired results. We take a normative and instrumental approach to stakeholder analysis by categorizing and investigating stakeholder relationships. With the wide array of roles that different stakeholders play, it is important to adopt holistic approaches in engaging them. Our approach is three-tiered, aimed at integrating and enhancing stakeholder participation and involvement.

We present research on stakeholder identification, categorization and mapping within the ongoing PARADeS project on participatory assessment of flood-related disaster prevention in Ghana. We define stakeholders to include all formal governance institutions, NGOs, Public and Private Research Institutions as well as civil society and their organizations. As the general motivation of the project constitutes a combination of research, development, and institutional strengthening activities, the objective is to engage with the relevant stakeholders of flood-related disaster management in Ghana, collaboratively identify weaknesses in the flood risk management system and starting points for improving these systems. We thus, 1) undertook a network-based stakeholder analysis, and 2) developed a strategy for stakeholder integration and participation within the PARADeS project.

We elaborate a three-tiered aim of participation concept to be used within our Project where subsets of identified stakeholders serve different purposes: 1) To provide and coordinate access to other stakeholders for project work packages/partners, 2) To analyze stakeholder networks and their role for FRM in Ghana, and 3) To create co-ownership between project collaborators and target capacity building and multiplier effects to ensure long-lasting project output implementation and transfer of responsibility from the project to respective institutions in Ghana. First, we developed a matrix that helped us to identify and preliminarily categorize all stakeholders from a variety of sources following a multi-level governance approach. The categorization included but not limited to sectors of operation, political level, main functions of the stakeholders, and whether they were state/non-state or otherwise identified, their corresponding contact persons and different approaches in contacting them. Based on this, we performed a stakeholder mapping exercise which forms a basis for a Social Network Analysis to be done at a later time. The mapping exercise offers a vivid visualization of the stakeholders identified, their affiliations, sector and political level of operation, and is discussed and revalidated collaboratively with practitioners and policy actors.

In the further course of the project, the three-tiered approach to participation builds grounds for collaboration not only amongst scientists/researchers across disciplines but also among practitioners in the field of flood-related disaster risk management.

How to cite: Ziga-Abortta, F. R., Kruse, S., Höllermann, B., and Ntajal, J.: Stakeholder Participation in Flood-Related Disaster Risk Management in Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10819, 2021.

EGU21-3136 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Systematic User Feedback to Co-develop a Flood Early Warning System in West Africa

Martijn Kuller, Jafet Andersson, and Judit Lienert

Introduction

The Horizon 2020 project FANFAR (www.fanfar.eu) aims to develop a Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) for West Africa. Prospective end-users of the FANFAR system include the hydrological services and emergency services of 17 countries in West Africa. Close involvement of end-users during the development phase can enhance effectiveness and usefulness of early warning systems (Reid, 2006). Therefore, FANFAR took a co-development approach between the consortium of developers and the end-users (Andersson, Ali, et al., 2020). Important vehicle for co-development are three workshops, organised over three years by the development consortium. Workshops were attended by one representative from hydrological services and one from emergency services from each country. The objectives of co-development included: tailoring to user- and context specific preferences and requirements, acquiring technical feedback on system components, enhancing user skills and capacity, building trust and ownership, enabling performance testing and enhancing system uptake.

Approach

Several strategies and interventions have been deployed to meet the objectives. Firstly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis was conducted to establish the end-users’ primary objectives and system configurations to best meet these (Lienert, Andersson, & Silva Pinto, 2020). Furthermore, including the execution of regular surveys to explore user experiences with the system and receive technical feedback. Two different pen-and-paper surveys were taken during the both the second and third workshop sessions: (1) a survey exploring long-term and detailed information on usage, performance, preferences, obstacles and experience of using FANFAR and (2) a survey eliciting detailed technical feedback on separate system components. A third, shorter survey was conducted online on a monthly basis during the rainy season (May-October 2020) focussing on day-to-day operational usage and performance. Here, we summarise some main insights from these three types of surveys.

Outcomes

The data on user experience with the FANFAR system gathered during these interventions enabled the development team to improve the forecast system. For example, accuracy was identified as critical issue to improve. In response, the development team initiated several activities aimed at improving accuracy, including model calibration, catchment re-delineation, assimilation of local streamflow observations and EO data, and utilising alternative meteorological data (Andersson, Santos, et al., 2020).

There was an important discrepancy between the reported overwhelming intention to use FANFAR (82-93%) and the actual usage (28-46%). One reason could be related to the reported barrier posed by the initial state of the system, and the lack of accuracy mentioned above. Furthermore, priorities and resources might partly explain these numbers. However, these finding could be skewed by the changing composition of respondents between surveys, compromising their representativeness. Indeed, the user statistics of the online platform show a rise in visits. Finally, users seem to prioritise a functional system delivering daily predictions over a complex system with broad functionality.

Overall, our co-development has been a positive one. Participation has been strong and continuous, with an increasing number of organisations and their representatives partaking in workshops. In addition, participation outside the workshops (during the rainy season) was encouraging, particularly in the light of its voluntary nature.

References
Andersson, J., Ali, A., Arheimer, B., Crochemore, L., Gbobaniyi, B., Gustafsson, D., . . . Machefer, M. (2020). Flood forecasting and alerts in West Africa-experiences from co-developing a pre-operational system at regional scale. Paper presented at the EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts.
Andersson, J., Santos, L., Isberg, K., Gustafsson, D., Musuuza, J., Minoungou, B., & Crochemore, L. (2020). Deliverable: D3.2 Report documenting and explaining the hydrological models. Retrieved from available at: https://fanfar.eu/resources/:
Lienert, J., Andersson, J., & Silva Pinto, F. (2020). Co-designing a flood forecasting and alert system in West Africa with decision-making methods: the transdisciplinary project FANFAR. Paper presented at the EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts.
Reid, B. (2006). Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364(1845), 2167-2182. doi:doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1819

How to cite: Kuller, M., Andersson, J., and Lienert, J.: Systematic User Feedback to Co-develop a Flood Early Warning System in West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3136, 2021.

EGU21-13276 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Transdisciplinary Design of Adaptation Pathways in Peri-urban India: Planning for Water Needs in a Sustainable Urban Transition 

Sharlene L. Gomes, Sarah Luft, Shreya Chakraborty, Leon M. Hermans, and Carsten Butsch

This research, conducted within the H2O-T2S project, is located in peri-urban areas of three cities in India: Pune, Hyderabad, Kolkata. Peri-urban areas are where the rural to urban transition is most visible. A key challenge for peri-urban areas is sustainable management of water resources. Peri-urban water resources in India are under threat from growing water demand and ineffective institutions. Interdisciplinary research of existing water-based livelihoods, household water use, and peri-urban institutions in these three regions shows that current urban transformations are unsustainable. Given the dynamic nature of peri-urban contexts, short and long-term vulnerabilities must be considered. An adaptation policy pathways approach can help peri-urban actors develop longer-term transformative plans. This study describes the design and execution of a participatory process to design context-specific pathways with peri-urban communities and governments in India.

This presentation outlines the key steps in our customized pathways approach for the peri-urban context. Due to the covid-19 pandemic, initial plans to implement these steps through a series of stakeholder workshops were replaced by remote pathways design using the Delphi method. We present a step-by-step methodology to engage peri-urban actors in the design of longer-term adaptive plans for water resources in the future. Results are presented for Hadia village (Kolkata), one of the three peri-urban case studies. It reveals the range of future normative scenarios developed for this village and a pathways schematic towards these scenarios.

Our results demonstrate the value of engaging local actors in the design of adaptive plans for peri-urban water resources. This study offers insights for ways to conduct transdisciplinary research even when face to face interactions are not feasible.

How to cite: Gomes, S. L., Luft, S., Chakraborty, S., Hermans, L. M., and Butsch, C.: Transdisciplinary Design of Adaptation Pathways in Peri-urban India: Planning for Water Needs in a Sustainable Urban Transition , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13276, 2021.

The question ‘how scale matters’ from experienced policy makers in adaptive water management motivated us to explore the issue. In search for climate resilience of brook catchments stakeholders collaborate. Those collaborations involve dynamic proximity, giving rise to innovative, creative solutions using natural hydrological and landscape processes. Dynamic proximity is known from innovation research in the field of high-tech regional economic development. The question is whether dynamic proximity among stakeholders influences success of joint knowledge production (JKP) processes as well. We focus on a more nature-tech context of regional economic development: creating nature-based solutions (NbS) to support climate resilience. The conceptual model to study the creative process of JKP combines the four dimensions of JKP with four forms of dynamic proximity. Along this matrix quotes of stakeholders were analysed from seven semi-structured interviews. At least one stakeholder in the process for the brook-restoration of the Aa (the Netherlands) was selected from industry, academia, government and non-profit organizations (following the ‘quadruple helix model’). Findings show that stakeholders who are versatile in using various forms of social, cognitive, institutional and geographical dynamic proximity in the process of JKP experience the process as more successful. Moreover, stakeholders overdoing the institutional or geographical aspects of proximity run into adverse effects, a mechanism recognized in economic geography as the proximity paradox. Furthermore, stakeholders are better supported when they use knowledge instruments, but only when keeping in mind the balance of forms of dynamic proximity. Findings were validated against two stakeholders’ experiences in another process for the Aa of Weerijs (the Netherlands). We suggest refining the model by adding two forms of dynamic proximity relating to interests and to resources, enabling a sharper focus on knowledge production under the heading of cognitive proximity. So, scale matters in such rural, natural processes. The perspective on proximity helps innovation, if proximity among stakeholders does not become too proximate. We have summarised findings in the form of a proximity tool, which is useful for optimizing the science-policy interface in regional adaptive water management.

How to cite: Brok, E., Floor, J., van Lamoen, F., and Lansu, A.: How scale matters in joint knowledge production for nature-based solutions. Dynamic proximity among stakeholders in climate adaptive water management for brook catchment Aa, the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8514, 2021.

EGU21-7288 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Hydrology across disciplines: the experience of a Public Hydrological Service in Italy

Giuseppe Ricciardi, Alessandro Allodi, Fabio Bordini, Monica Branchi, Francesco Cogliandro, Elisa Comune, Valentina dell'Aquila, Mauro Del Longo, Giuseppe Nicolosi, Mauro Noberini, Filippo Pizzera, Fabrizio Tonelli, and Franca Tugnoli

Water is very important for human consumption, production and services and also for inspiration, recreation, landscapes, ecosystems and wild life. UN and EU policies highlights the interaction of historical scientific, economic, societal and environmental factors and the linkage of water policies with biodiversity protection and Climate Change adaptation.  According to the European Green Deal (2019), for a fair and prosperous society, with a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy working across sectors and disciplines, will be needed, also involving local communities. Moreover Political and management processes may take benefits from specific participatory Tools.

The Emilia-Romagna Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy (Arpae) helps sustainability developing  actions for water protection, water use, flood management and education to sustainability.  

Arpae Hydrological Service (HS) supports flood management and water management, as also design and management of hydraulic structures, through the Flood Early Warning System FEWS and  the Drought Early Warning System DEWS. Arpae HS also collect and publish hydrological time series (water, solid transport) and stage-discharge equations.

Within FP7 Enhance (2017) multi risk analysis and Public Private Partnership (PPPs) experiences were supported by  modeling tools combining flood /earthquake/Climate Change scenarios in a densely populated, highly developed land reclamation territory. An Application of the System for Economic and Environmental Accounting for Water (UN SEEA -Water) was developed in 2017. Within Interreg Proline-CE (2019), the FEWS and DEWS Systems, respectively supporting the Flood Forecasting Center and the Observatory on Water Uses, were proposed as Best Management Practices (BMPs) for land and water management useful for drinking water protection. BMPs where tested through workshops, questionnaires,  meetings and technical visits, useful for dissemination and  stakeholders involvement. H2020 Clara was useful to experience co-design/co-development approaches, to explore market segments and business models for water knowledge and climate services, and to set dedicated Policy Briefs for Water and Climate Change Adaptation; Arpae HS developed a set of modeling services  (Clara PWA) related to water management, solid transport, water quality and habitat availability, useful to understand the  influenced of climate change and the needs and proposal coming from market and  the institutions. Interreg boDEREC-CE is a current project on pharmaceutical and personal care pollutants (PPCPs), aimed at developing tools and strategies for protection of drinking water, water ecosystems and public health from pollution, bacterial resistance, toxicity and pathogens.

Arpae HS through these experiences has gained awareness of the inter linkage of hydrology with other sectors (economy, Earth sciences, ICT, health, ecology, society) and of the importance of developing specific decision support tools maximizing stakeholder participation, societal dissemination, transparency, education to sustainability and experts involvement.

How to cite: Ricciardi, G., Allodi, A., Bordini, F., Branchi, M., Cogliandro, F., Comune, E., dell'Aquila, V., Del Longo, M., Nicolosi, G., Noberini, M., Pizzera, F., Tonelli, F., and Tugnoli, F.: Hydrology across disciplines: the experience of a Public Hydrological Service in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7288, 2021.

EGU21-5609 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

How are guaranties of quality forged and assessed in flood risk modelling ?

Remi Barbier and Isabelle Charpentier

Models and simulations have become essential elements of water management in catchments (Chong, 2019). This raises the question of confidence in the models. We are interested in the criteria used to judge their quality and the way in which the uncertainties inherent to modelling are taken into account and explained throughout the process. 

Our communication is based on the results of one interdisciplinary research project on modelling developed in the framework of Flood Risk Prevention Plans (FRPP). In a nutshell, FRPPs are regulatory documents elaborated under the responsibility of the State. They are then imposed to local urban planning regulations. Their elaboration is based on the modelling of the flood hazard.

We formulate the problem of trust from the perspective of the State services. The latter entrust consulting firms with the implementation of hazard modeling, which (generally) benefit from a strong asymmetry of skills in their favour. Based on a survey conducted in several government departments, we analyze the practice of ordering, piloting and validating these models. The question posed is the following: "how are guaranties of quality and suitability forged and assessed in flood risk modelling?" We review the different stages of the process, from the writting of the specifications to the final validation of the results, including the multiple interactions throughout the work.  

 

 

How to cite: Barbier, R. and Charpentier, I.: How are guaranties of quality forged and assessed in flood risk modelling ?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5609, 2021.

EGU21-8060 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Development of interactive diagnostic tools and metrics for the socio-economic consequences of floods

Annie-Claude Parent, Frédéric Fournier, François Anctil, Brian Morse, Jean-Philippe Baril-Boyer, and Pascal Marceau

Spring floods have generated colossal damages to residential areas in the Province of Quebec, Canada, in 2017 and 2019. Government authorities need accurate modelling of the impact of theoretical floods in order to prioritize pre-disaster mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. They also need accurate modelling of forecasted floods in order to direct emergency responses. 

We present a governmental-academic collaboration that aims at modelling flood impact for both theoretical and forecasted flooding events over all populated river reaches of meridional Quebec. The project, funded by the ministère de la Sécurité publique du Québec (Quebec ministry in charge of public security), consists in developing a diagnostic tool and methods to assess the risk and impacts of flooding. Tools under development are intended to be used primarily by policy makers. 

The project relies on water level data based on the hydrological regimes of nearly 25,000 km of rivers, on high-precision digital terrain models, and on a detailed database of building footprints and characterizations. It also relies on 24h and 48h forecasts of maximum flow for the subject rivers. The developed tools integrate large data sets and heterogeneous data sources and produce insightful metrics on the physical extent and costs of floods and on their impact on the population. The software also provides precise information about each building affected by rising water, including an estimated cost of the damages and impact on inhabitants.  

How to cite: Parent, A.-C., Fournier, F., Anctil, F., Morse, B., Baril-Boyer, J.-P., and Marceau, P.: Development of interactive diagnostic tools and metrics for the socio-economic consequences of floods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8060, 2021.

EGU21-10056 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Building the tools to speed up the policy design cycle: letting policy makers work with hydrologic models themselves through eWaterCycle

Nick van de Giesen, Rolf Hut, and Niels Drost and the Netherlands eScience Centre

Building the tools to speed up the policy design cycle: letting policy makers work with hydrologic models themselves through eWaterCycle

 

Hydrologists are important experts that policy makers rely on when making water related decisions. Through policy briefs, often including scenario simulations, policy makers are informed about the consequences their (intended) policies (or lack thereof) will have.

 

In drafting policy briefs, or choosing which scenario to run, scientists inevitably make political decisions, from obvious ones (how to weigh the importance of one land use type over another) to more hidden ones (using Kling-Gupta efficiency, which focuses more on low flow, to calibrate a model instead of Nash-sutcliffe efficiency, which focuses more on high flows). Ideally one wants to design the policymaker - scientist interaction such that most political decisions are made by the policymaker, without requiring her/him to become an expert hydrologist in the process. Any remaining (inevitable) decisions made by the hydrologist should be as transparent as possible.

 

The eWaterCyle hydrologic research platform facilitates this type of policy maker - hydrologists interaction. Within the platform experiments such as scenario runs are Jupyter notebooks that a governmental data-scientist can construct without having to be an expert in the hydrological models used: these are stored in (OPEN and FAIR) containers. Interactive web applications  can be easily built on top of these notebooks using widgets, to allow the ultimate political decision maker to explore a broader range of policy options, instead of having to choose from a view of pre-run scenarios. 

 

We will present a few examples of how the eWaterCycle hydrological research platform can be used to support water-relevant policy decision making.

How to cite: van de Giesen, N., Hut, R., and Drost, N. and the Netherlands eScience Centre: Building the tools to speed up the policy design cycle: letting policy makers work with hydrologic models themselves through eWaterCycle, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10056, 2021.

EGU21-15281 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Coproducing a water quality dashboard: Data communication for decision support in the Brantas River basin, Indonesia

Christa Nooy, Schuyler Houser, Reza Pramana, Astria Nugrahany, Daru Rini, and Maurits Ertsen

Interconnected processes of IWRM demand involvement of many stakeholders negotiating a variety of competing interests and goals in agenda-setting, formulation, implementation, and evaluation. These processes – and the decision taken therein – naturally involve a wide variety of data inputs. But in many contexts, available data are partial or analytically insufficient; utilization is low due to inattention to user needs; key data are not readily available; or generated evidence is scientifically rigorous but poorly matched with the most relevant policy questions. These conditions nudge policy systems towards “knowledge creep,” “decision accretion,” and “policy layering.”

The participatory turn in water governance presents an additional set of opportunities and demands. Committees, consultative groups, coordinating bodies, and citizen science programs engage a broad array of actors in knowledge co-production and consumption for water resource decisions. Expansion of the knowledge and decision network introduces valuable new data but also new considerations regarding the use of data, practicalities of data aggregation, and how data should be combined and disseminated to meet various user needs and minimize “information overload.”

This research examines how standard chemical water quality data, participatory citizen science outputs, and other qualitative data are currently used in policy decisions regarding water quality management in the Brantas River Basin in Indonesia, where decisions are undertaken in highly consultative settings. Initial findings via interviews with key users suggest that there is space to extend the use of scientific data and citizen science outputs for decision support and public information. Chemical water quality data is considered legitimate yet partial, not easily interpreted by decision-makers in tabular form, and insufficient to inform some policy decisions, including those related to solid waste and industrial pollution. Citizen science outputs, on the other hand, are recognized to serve important educational purposes but are not actively used to inform policy. Moreover, water quality conditions are not immediately apparent to decision-makers and citizens with respect to seasonal fluctuations and variations across the upper and lower reaches.

This exploratory study also tests a co-productive approach to constructing, testing, and revising a digital Water Quality dashboard to improve the uptake and interpretability of data, identify data gaps, and offer decision-makers and other stakeholders a usable overview of conditions. The iterative process involves systematic and participative appraisal of decision support needs and constraints; collation of disparate hydrologic data sets to test integration and visualization alternatives and identify sampling gaps; inclusion of citizen science and textual data; and testing of visualization and dissemination alternatives for various uses. Citizen-science data will include water quality and biomonitoring data, micro-plastics analysis, and geo-tagged data on sources of pollution. Data dissemination alternatives are to be iteratively evaluated and revised based on criteria of policy and educational relevance, interpretability, and feasibility of data maintenance.

How to cite: Nooy, C., Houser, S., Pramana, R., Nugrahany, A., Rini, D., and Ertsen, M.: Coproducing a water quality dashboard: Data communication for decision support in the Brantas River basin, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15281, 2021.

EGU21-7941 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.1

Living Labs towards sustainable groundwater management: case study in Malia, Crete, Greece

George Karatzas, Anthi-Eirini Vozinaki, Ioannis Trichakis, Ioanna Anyfanti, Christina Stylianoydaki, Emmanouil Varouchakis, Christos Goumas, Pier Paolo Roggero, Thuraya Mellah, Hanene Akrout, and Seifeddine Jomaa

This work carries the social learning process out via Living Labs in order to construct a common vision on sustainable groundwater management. In this process, the scientific and local knowledge are integrated. This study is part of Sustain-COAST project co-funded by PRIMA programme. Stakeholders’ active engagement is realized via Living Labs, which are participatory actions that encourage the dialogue among private and public actors, create institutionalized space for discussion and vision sharing, and analyze the stakeholder-suggested mitigation options.

A stakeholder mapping took place, that is  the list of all the key groups, organizations, and people involved to water management in the study area. Further analysis was carried out to better understand stakeholders’ roles and perspectives, within the first Living Lab, organized in Malia. 55 stakeholders interacted gathered, including water users, policy makers, local and regional authorities, water management and supply associations, socio-ecological and cultural associations, NGOs, citizens, technicians, external experts, scientists.

Stakeholders got involved in social learning actions, knowing each other, expressed their motivations and expectations to participate in the first Living Lab and the project. Afterwards, a participatory session followed by implementing digital ICT tools (Mentimeter App.), which is an opinion survey technique that might improve societal awareness and stakeholders’ active engagement in water management. Afterwards, an interactive participatory map activity took place, which enabled the study site’s characterization according to key-stakeholders’ perception, knowledge, and expertise on water management issues in the area. Stakeholders collaborated in groups and filled maps of the study area with significant spatial data and information. Participants were asked to express their common vision on Malia in an entertaining puzzle activity.

The aforementioned interactive sessions enabled the extraction of the raised water issues in Malia as well as the suggestion of possible options . The need for sustainable and balanced development taking into account principles of law and equal accessibility for all was specifically noted by stakeholders. Stakeholders evaluated the Living Labs as an innovative interactive and interesting way of exchanging views among institutions and citizens, through participation and technological means. Living Labs are expected to provide significant information exchange among institutions and actors and provide realistic and socially acceptable suggestions for the local community.

Stakeholders are directly involved and motivated to maintain their active engagement in a long-lasting process via future Living Labs in Malia. Such actions increase governance capacity by addressing people’s skills in jointly decision-making and engaging stakeholders in a social learning process through participation. Actions that encourage dialogue among different actors and use innovative mediation techniques form the best options to improve and integrate water governance.

 

Keywords: Living Labs; Innovative governance; Water resources management; Stakeholder mapping; Social learning processes; Stakeholders’ engagement

 

The PRIMA programme is an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Programme for Research and Innovation.

The project is funded by the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of the Ministry of Development and Investments under the PRIMA Programme. PRIMA is an Art.185 initiative supported and co-funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Programme for Research and Innovation.

How to cite: Karatzas, G., Vozinaki, A.-E., Trichakis, I., Anyfanti, I., Stylianoydaki, C., Varouchakis, E., Goumas, C., Roggero, P. P., Mellah, T., Akrout, H., and Jomaa, S.: Living Labs towards sustainable groundwater management: case study in Malia, Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7941, 2021.

HS1.2.4 – Panta Rhei (hydrology, society, environmental change) and Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH)

Ask people in 1940 what 2020 would be like and they would talk about hoverboards and whether androids dream of electric sheep. You wouldn’t get a lot of projections that 2020 would be a few degrees warmer globally, that glaciers are disappearing and coastal cities sinking… But they are. 

Looking forward to 2100 it is the other way around: no idea what technology we’ll be using to communicate / commute and relax, but due to gigantic increase in geoscientific understanding over the last decades we do know for sure that the sea levels will continue to rise and global temperatures increase.

Hydrology has always been a scientific discipline that combines pure academic interest with high societal relevance. While venues of pure academic interest can go in all directions, we can use the predictions on future climate change to see what types of hydrological research will be relevant to society in 2100. 

Are we on track for the RCP8.5 scenario with 4 degrees of (additional) global warming in 2100? This would lead to a combination of MadMax and Waterworld: current coastal zones will flood, whole islands will disappear and large parts of the world will become more desert-like. Or will the world come together and will nations and people start working together to collectively combat climate change to make sure we stay on the RCP2.5 scenario1?

In this invited talk I will sketch what scientific questions will be asked from hydrology in these situations and I will share my vision on how we can already start to prepare the knowledge base to be able to adequately answer these questions on our way to 2100.

1and invent faster than light travel in 2063...

How to cite: Hut, R.: Pick your adventure: Does hydrology need to prepare for MadMax and Waterworld or for Star Trek?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8985, 2021.

EGU21-4058 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

The importance of ecosystem adaptation on hydrological model predictions in response to climate change

Laurène Bouaziz, Emma Aalbers, Albrecht Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz

Models calibrated on the past are often used to predict future hydrological behavior in a changing world, disregarding that hydrological systems, hence model parameters, will change as well. Even if we are aware of the non-stationarity of hydrological systems, we are impeded by our limited knowledge on how to meaningfully implement this in hydrological models. Yet, ecosystems are likely to adapt in response to climate change and other species might become dominant, both under natural and anthropogenic influence. The root-zone storage capacity of ecosystems is an important hydrological parameter, which ecosystems can adjust in response to climatic change. In this study, we propose a top-down approach, which directly uses projected climate data to estimate how vegetation adapts its root-zone storage capacity at the catchment-scale, in response to changes in magnitude and seasonality of hydro-climatic variables. In order to make reliable estimates of hydrological behavior of future ecosystems, we exchange space-for-time, whereby the Budyko characteristics of different dominant ecosystems in sub-catchments are used to simulate the behavior of potential future land-use change. We hypothesize that predicted changes of the hydrological response as a result of global warming are more pronounced when explicitly considering changes in the sub-surface system properties induced by vegetation adaptation to changing environmental conditions. We test our hypothesis in the Meuse basin in four scenarios designed to predict the hydrological response to +2°C global warming in comparison to current-day reference conditions using a process-based hydrological model with (1) a stationary system, i.e. no changes in the root-zone storage capacity of vegetation and historical land use, (2) an adapted root-zone storage capacity in response to a changing climate but with historical land use, and (3,4) an adapted root-zone storage capacity considering two hypothetical changes in land use from coniferous plantations/agriculture towards broadleaved forest and vice-versa. We found that the larger root-zone storage capacities (+33%) in response to a more pronounced seasonality with drier summers under +2°C global warming strongly alter seasonal patterns of the hydrological response, with an overall increase in mean annual evaporation (+4%), and a decrease in recharge (-6%) and streamflow (-7%), compared to predictions with a stationary system. Through the integration of a time-dynamic representation of changing vegetation properties in hydrological models, we address the 19th Unsolved Problem in Hydrology (Blöschl et al., 2019) and move towards more reliable hydrological predictions under change.

 

Blöschl, G., Bierkens, M. F. P., Chambel, A., Cudennec, C., Destouni, G., Fiori, A., et al. (2019). Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(10), 1141–1158. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1620507

How to cite: Bouaziz, L., Aalbers, E., Weerts, A., Hegnauer, M., Buiteveld, H., Lammersen, R., Stam, J., Sprokkereef, E., Savenije, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: The importance of ecosystem adaptation on hydrological model predictions in response to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4058, 2021.

EGU21-3095 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Effects of flood timing on vegetated riparian and coastal habitats in a changing climate

Thorsten Balke, Alejandra Vovides, Cai Ladd, Mohammad Basyuni, and Christer Nilsson

Ecosystem functioning of habitats at land-water interfaces, such as riparian forests and intertidal salt marshes or mangroves is predominantly driven by inundation. Whereas seasonality of ecological processes (i.e. phenology) and of hydrological extremes/events have been relatively well studied independently from each other their interdependence remains largely unknown. Filling this knowledge gap may become especially important in a changing climate as the timing of ecological and abiotic processes is already changing, often independently from each other. As these ecosystems are increasingly praised as Nature-based Solutions, predicting the ecosystem functioning of riparian forests and coastal wetlands under future climate change is crucial.

Here, we will highlight the importance of match and mismatch of ecological and hydrological processes through a range of experiments and field observations in coastal wetlands from the single seedling to the ecosystem level. For riparian floodplains of Europe, we will show how the temporal relationships between flooding and thermal growing season have already changed in past decades, with currently unknown consequences. Finally, we will showcase methodological advances in field monitoring to better study these timing effects and offer conceptual insights to identify tipping points of ecosystem change along land-water interfaces.

This presentation will focus on UPH ‘interfaces’ and ‘variability’.

How to cite: Balke, T., Vovides, A., Ladd, C., Basyuni, M., and Nilsson, C.: Effects of flood timing on vegetated riparian and coastal habitats in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3095, 2021.

EGU21-13753 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Pronounced Water Age Partitioning Between Arid Andean Aquifers and Fresh-Saline Lagoon Systems

Brendan J. Moran, David F. Boutt, Lee Ann Munk, and Joshua D. Fisher

The challenge of deciphering connections between groundwater systems and surface water bodies and by extension connections to hydroclimate represent major unsolved questions in the hydrology community. Within the UPH framework, under the Interfaces in hydrology theme, this includes aspects of both questions twelve and thirteen. In arid regions, disentangling these processes is an especially difficult challenge due to the large spatial and temporal scales over which these systems are integrated. Yet we must improve our understanding if we are to use water sustainably in these landscapes. In the dry Andes, very deep water tables develop groundwater flow paths with long transit times, often crossing topographic boundaries before emerging at basin floors. These factors combined with the complex evaporite stratigraphy in which surface and groundwaters interact make it quite difficult to close water budgets and quantify groundwater fluxes across hydrological boundaries. As a result, many fundamental questions about connections across these interfaces remain unresolved. This study presents a novel examination of processes controlling fluxes across critical boundaries (groundwater recharge, inter-catchment flow, and riparian/stream/aquifer exchange) by employing a comprehensive set of ~150 3H samples from waters across the entire dry Andes paired with a large dataset (>1,500 samples) of 18O, 2H in water and dissolved major ions.

We present an integrated process-based conceptual framework describing the dominant controls on water compartment connections intrinsic to these arid mountain systems. The large range in mean transit times and the persistence of hydrologic features here allow for reliable delineation of multiple distinct source and flow path groupings. Repeat sampling over several years provides further constraints on connections between these compartments and the modern hydroclimate. Our results outline a few novel findings regarding the hydrological attributes of these environments: i) most of the water sustaining both the regional and local hydrological systems is old (0-10 % modern and 100-10000 yrs old) yet modern water (days-10 yrs old) is critical to sustaining many surface water bodies. ii) transit time distributions in specific water compartments (Groundwaters, Springs, Streams, Saline lagoons, and Vegas) are remarkably stable over time and show consistent patterns across the entire plateau; iii) the existence of surface water bodies and their connection to groundwater compartments is regulated by persistent hydrological features (regional flow paths, hydrogeology, fresh-saline interfaces); and iv) sharp divergence in mean residence and transit time of source waters occurs over very short spatial scales (<<1km).  By describing water age distributions and geochemical attributes of these features we define the dominant controls on several discrete water compartments and delineate clear distinctions between long-term average source waters and the decoupling of modern hydroclimate from the hydrologic system as a whole. This analysis represents a significant advancement in our understanding of controls on fluxes across boundaries in arid mountainous regions and freshwater-salt lagoon systems. An improved understanding of the primary controls on water source and transport will allow us to better protect communities and fragile ecosystems from the most damaging potential impacts of water extraction in these environments.

How to cite: Moran, B. J., Boutt, D. F., Munk, L. A., and Fisher, J. D.: Pronounced Water Age Partitioning Between Arid Andean Aquifers and Fresh-Saline Lagoon Systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13753, 2021.

EGU21-9014 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4 | Highlight

Robust modelling to address UPH19 to predict future hydrological responses for water resources adaptation under climate change

Francis Chiew, Hongxing Zheng, and Jai Vaze

This paper addresses the implications of UPH19 in extrapolating hydrological models to predict the future and assessing water resources adaptation to climate change. Many studies have now shown that traditional application of hydrological models calibrated against past observations will underestimate the range in the projected future hydrological impact, that is, it will underestimate the decline in runoff where a runoff decrease is projected, and underestimate the increase in runoff where a runoff increase is projected. This study opportunistically uses data from south-eastern Australia which recently experienced a long and severe drought lasting more than ten years and subsequent partial hydrological recovery from the drought. The paper shows that a more robust calibration of rainfall-runoff models to produce good calibration metrics in both the dry periods and wet periods, at the expense of the best calibration over the entire data period, can produce a more accurate estimate of the uncertainty in the projected future runoff, but cannot entirely eliminate the modelling limitation of underestimating the projected range in future runoff. This is because of the need to consider trade-offs between the calibration objectives, particularly in simulating the dry periods, versus enhanced bias that results from the consideration. Hydrological models must therefore also need to be adapted to reflect the non-stationary nature of catchment and vegetation responses in a changing climate under warmer conditions, higher CO2 and changed precipitation patterns. This is an active area of research in UPH19, and some ideas relevant to this region will be presented.

How to cite: Chiew, F., Zheng, H., and Vaze, J.: Robust modelling to address UPH19 to predict future hydrological responses for water resources adaptation under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9014, 2021.

EGU21-9888 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

On the relationship between the variability of catchment hydroclimate and physiography, and the uncertainty of runoff generation hypotheses

Sina Khatami, Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Tim Peterson Peterson, Andrew Western, and Zahra Kalantari

Question #20 of the UPH aspires to disentangle and reduce model prediction uncertainty. One feasible approach is to first formulate the relationship between variability (of real-world hydrological processes and catchment characteristics) and uncertainty (of model components and variables), which links the UPH theme of “modelling methods” to “time variability and change” and “space variability and scaling”. Building on this premise, we explored the relationship between runoff generation hypotheses, derived from a large ensemble of catchment model simulations, and catchment characteristics (physiographic, climatic, and streamflow response characteristics) across a large sample of 221 Australian catchments. Using ensembles of 10runs of SIMHYD model for each catchment, runoff generation hypotheses were formulated based on the interaction of 3 runoff generating fluxes of SIMHYD, namely intensity-based, wetness-based, and slow responses. The hypotheses were derived from model runs with acceptable performance and sufficient parameter sampling. For model performance acceptability, we benchmarked Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) skill score against the calendar day average observed flow, a catchment-specific and more informative benchmark than the conventional observed flow mean. The relative parameter sampling sufficiency was also defined based on the comparative efficacy of two common model parameterisation routines of Latin Hypercube Sampling and Shuffled Complex Evolution for each catchment. Across 186 catchments with acceptable catchment models, we examined the association of uncertain runoff generation hypotheses (i.e. ensemble of modeled runoff fluxes) with 22 catchment attributes. We used the Flux Mapping method (https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023750) to characterise the uncertainty of runoff generation hypotheses, and a range of daily and annual summary statistics to characterise catchment attributes. Among the metrics used, Spearman rank correlation coefficient (Rs) was the most informative metric to capture the functional connectivity of catchment attributes with the internal dynamics of model runoff fluxes, compared to linear Pearson correlation and distance correlation coefficients. We found that streamflow characteristics generally have the most important influence on runoff generation hypotheses, followed by climate and then physiographic attributes. Particularly, daily flow coefficient of variability (Qcv) and skewness (Q Skewness), followed by the same summary statistics of precipitation (Pcv and P Skewness), were most important. These four attributes are strongly correlated with one another, and represent the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff signal within a catchment system. A higher Pcv denotes a higher day-to-day variability in rainfall on the catchment, responded by a higher Qcv flow response. A higher variability in rainfall propagates through the catchment model and translates into a higher degree of equifinality in model runoff fluxes, which implies larger uncertainties of runoff generation hypotheses at catchment scale, and hence a greater challenge for reliable/realistic simulation and prediction of streamflow.

How to cite: Khatami, S., Fowler, K., Peel, M., Peterson, T. P., Western, A., and Kalantari, Z.: On the relationship between the variability of catchment hydroclimate and physiography, and the uncertainty of runoff generation hypotheses, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9888, 2021.

Environmental models, such as hydrological models or water quality models, are incorporate numerical algorithms that describe either empirically or physical-based the large variety of natural processes that govern the flow of water (or other variables) and its components. The purposes of these models range from improving our understanding of the principles of hydrological processes at a catchment scale to making predictions about how anthropogenic activities will influence future water resources. To be applicable, these models require calibration with observed output data, which is most often streamflow for hydrological models. Yet, the complex nature of hydrological processes, on the one hand, and the limited observed data to inform model parameters, on the other hand, evoke the unavoidable equifinality issue in the calibration of these models. This equifinality issue is expressed with the presence of several optimal model parameters that have different values but lead to similar model performance. One way of dealing with this issue is through providing a parameter ensemble with optimal solutions instead of a single parameter set, reported often as parametric model uncertainty.

However, this equifinality issue is far from being solved, as also highlighted by one of 23 Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH). This is particularly the case if more variables than only streamflow are of interest. Our hypothesis is that using more than one dataset for calibrating any environmental model helps reducing the equifinality issue during model calibration and thus improves the identifiability of model parameters. In this review-based study, we present recent examples of hydrological (and water quality) models from literature that have been calibrated within a multiple dataset framework to reduce the equifinality issue. We demonstrate that a multi-dataset calibration yields a better model performance regardless of the complexity of the model. Finally, we show that coupling a multi-dataset model calibration with metaheuristics (such as Monte Carlo or Genetic Algorithm) can help reducing the equifinality of model parameters and improving the Pareto frontier. At the bottom of this study, we outline how such a multi-dataset calibration can lead to better model predictions and how it can help emerging water resources problems due to an emerging climate crisis.

This work contributes to one of the seven major themes of 23 UPH, i.e., Modelling methods. It paths a way forward towards reducing parameter uncertainty in hydrological predictions (UPH question #20) and thus towards improving modelling of hydrologic responses in the extrapolation phase, i.e., under changed catchment conditions (UPH question #19).

How to cite: Finger, D. C. and Sikorska-Senoner, A. E.: Towards improving the Pareto frontier in environmental models using multi-dataset calibrations coupled with metaheuristic methods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11996, 2021.

EGU21-10310 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

A new cost-performance grid to compare different flood modelling approaches

Rouya Hdeib, Roger Moussa, François Colin, and Chadi Abdallah

The wise selection of modeling approaches with an appropriate level of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. In this paper, the structure of a cost-performance grid designed for flood modeling is presented. The grid is developed to compare different flood modeling approaches of variable complexity and to guide on the proper selection of the couple data-model. The methodology involves defining metrics to quantify the three variables: data costs, model costs, and performance. Preliminarily, eighteen flood modeling applications in literature were arbitrarily selected and analyzed to guide on the implementation of the grid. The cost-performance diagram allows tracing a cost-performance curve and grouping applications in 4 zones corresponding to 4 modeling approaches (empirical and geomorphic, hydrological, hydraulic, and coupling). The grid is a tool to support the comparison, classification, and future selection of cost-effective modeling approaches. It is flexible and can be extrapolated to other modeling objectives.

How to cite: Hdeib, R., Moussa, R., Colin, F., and Abdallah, C.: A new cost-performance grid to compare different flood modelling approaches, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10310, 2021.

EGU21-14288 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Mapping potential impacts of dams and reservoirs in South America

Bolivar Paredes-Beltran, Alvaro Sordo-Ward, and Luis Garrote

We present a continental-scale evaluation of the distribution of dams and reservoirs in South America. This analysis is relevant to estimate potential impacts on water supply and flow alteration. A combined total of 808 of the largest dams across the continent, which can store about 1,003 cubic kilometres of water, were evaluated. We divided the area of study into 27 hydrological regions and for each region we determined necessary inputs to assess the potential impacts of dams and reservoirs such as: total area, mean annual runoff, total storage volume, population, or equipped area for irrigation. Although the storage capacity of the reservoirs represents around 10% of the region's total mean annual runoff, the potential impacts for flow alteration differ considerably between hydrological regions because dams and reservoirs are not evenly distributed in South America. Whilst in some hydrological regions in the north, including the Amazon river, water storage from reservoirs represents less than 5% of their mean annual runoff, some hydrological regions in the south of the continent can store the equivalent of 2 to 3 years of their mean annual runoff. The region with the highest potential for hydrological impacts is the Rio Colorado basin in Argentina, where storage from reservoirs can be almost 3.5 times the region’s mean annual runoff. The observed variations in water storage can be explained by the diversity in hydrology and water demands of the different hydrological regions of the continent. For example, water storage for hydropower purposes represents about 85% of the total water storage in the continent. Also, the highest number of dams exclusively allocated for hydropower production are located in the east of the continent in Argentina and Brazil. The hydrological region with the highest ratio of water storage is “La Plata” in the southeast of the continent with approximately 35% of the total water storage of the continent.  In addition, almost 70% of dams are located in humid or sub-humid areas. In average, the dams in the continent can store 9,700 m3 of water per person and 161,000 m3 of water per hectare equipped for irrigation. The regions with the highest concentration of dams are Venezuela and the eastern region of Brazil, while the regions with the least number of dams per area are found in the northeast of Brazil and the south of the continent. These ratios may be useful to understand the potential effects of dams and reservoirs on a regional and continental scale, considering that development plans in several countries include many new dams across the continent. With this study, we expect to provide valuable insights to researchers and water resource managers about the current and future potential impacts of dams and reservoirs in South America.

How to cite: Paredes-Beltran, B., Sordo-Ward, A., and Garrote, L.: Mapping potential impacts of dams and reservoirs in South America, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14288, 2021.

EGU21-11537 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Enhancing Water Security through Restoration and Maintenance of Ecological Infrastructure:  Lessons From the uMngeni River Basin, South Africa

Graham Jewitt, Catherine Sutherland, Sabine Stuart-Hill, Jim Taylor, Susan Risko, Patrick Martell, and Michelle Browne

The uMngeni River Basin supports over six million people, providing water to South Africa’s third largest regional economy. A critical question facing stakeholders is how to sustain and enhance water security in the catchment for its inhabitants. The role of Ecological Infrastructure (EI) (the South African term for a suite of Nature Based Solutions and Green Infrastructure projects) in enhancing and sustaining water and sanitation delivery in the catchment has been the focus of a project that has explored the conceptual and philosophical basis for investing in EI over the past five years.

The overall aim of this project was to identify where and how investment into the protection and/or restoration of EI can be made to produce long-term and sustainable returns in terms of water security assurance. In short, the project aimed to guide catchment managers when deciding “what to do” in the catchment to secure a more sustainable water supply, and where it should be done. This seemingly simple question encompasses complexity in time and space, and reveals the connections between different biophysical, social, political, economic and governance systems in the catchment.

Through the study, we highlight that there is an interdependent and co-constitutive relationship between EI, society, and water security. In particular, by working in spaces where EI investment is taking place, it is evident that socio-economic, environmental and political relations in the catchment play a critical role in making EI investment possible, or not possible.

The study inherently addresses aspects of water quantity and quality, economics, societal interactions, and the governance of natural resources. It highlights that ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water resources requires both transdisciplinary and detailed biophysical, economic, social and development studies of both formal and informal socio-ecological systems, and that investing in human resources capacity to support these studies, is critical. In contrast to many projects which have identified this complexity, here, we move beyond identification and actively explore and explain these interactions and have synthesised these into ten lessons based on these experiences and analyses.

  • 1 - People (human capital), the societies in which they live (societal capital), the constructed environment (built capital), and natural capital interact with, and shape each other
  • 2 - Investing in Ecological Infrastructure enhances catchment water security
  • 3 - Investing in Ecological Infrastructure or BuiIt/Grey infrastructure is not a binary choice
  • 4 - Investing in Ecological Infrastructure is financially beneficial
  • 5 - Understanding history, legacy and path dependencies is critical to shift thinking
  • 6 - Understanding the governance system is fundamental
  • 7 - Meaningful participatory processes are the key to transformation
  • 8 - To be sustainable, investments in infrastructure need a concomitant investment in social and human capital
  • 9 - Social learning, building transdisciplinarity and transformation takes time and effort
  • 10 - Students provide new insights, bring energy and are multipliers

How to cite: Jewitt, G., Sutherland, C., Stuart-Hill, S., Taylor, J., Risko, S., Martell, P., and Browne, M.: Enhancing Water Security through Restoration and Maintenance of Ecological Infrastructure:  Lessons From the uMngeni River Basin, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11537, 2021.

EGU21-14496 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4 | Highlight

What it takes to increase Europe’s resilience to drought – Insights from a pan European survey on recent drought perception, impacts and management

Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela Brunner, Doris Wendt, and Claudia Teutschbein

In recent years, drought impacts have been more severe and frequent than past impacts throughout Europe. Due to the heterogeneity of Europe’s hydro- climatological situation as well as the multiple nations on the continent, drought events and their impacts vary with respect to location, sector, extent, duration and scale. In order to understand recent effects of drought and their possible drivers, national representatives distributed a uniform questionnaire to water management stakeholders of 28 contributing countries. Here, we focus on obtaining information on stakeholders’ drought perception,impacts, and current management strategies on a national and sub-national scale. With the survey, we analyse how strong the relationship between perceptions and actual hazard information is. Actual drought hazard information from the European Drought Observatory for the years 2018 and 2019 is compared with the questionnaire’s results. The results of the study highlight the diversity among national drought perceptions and the value of  already existing drought management strategies. An absence of coordinated drought management is mostly attributed to a lack of resources and macro- governmental guidance. Supported by the national perspectives, possible macro-governmental pathways to increase national and sub-national awareness and resilience are discussed. The results support the need for national  drought policies, which could be pushed forward with international drought management directives.

How to cite: Blauhut, V., Stoelzle, M., Ahopelto, L., Brunner, M., Wendt, D., and Teutschbein, C.: What it takes to increase Europe’s resilience to drought – Insights from a pan European survey on recent drought perception, impacts and management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14496, 2021.

EGU21-13716 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Evidence of river flow regulation loss over time in the Magdalena river basin 

Diver E. Marín, Juan F. Salazar, and José A. Posada-Marín

Some of the main problems in hydrological sciences are related to how and why river flows change as a result of environmental change, and what are the corresponding implications for society. This has been described as the Panta Rhei context, which refers to the challenge of understanding and quantifying hydrological dynamics in a changing environment, i.e. under the influence of non-stationary effects. The river flow regime in a basin is the result of a complex aggregation process that has been studied by the scaling theory, which allows river basins to be classified as regulated or unregulated and to identify a critical threshold between these states. Regulation is defined here as the basin’s capacity to either dampen high flows or to enhance low flows. This capacity depends on how basins store and release water through time, which in turn depends on many processes that are highly dynamic and sensitive to environmental change. Here we focus on the Magdalena river basin in northwestern South America, which is the main basin for water and energy security in Colombia, and at the same time, it has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Building upon some of our previous studies, here we use data analysis to study the evolution of regulation in the Magdalena basin for 1992-2015 based on the scaling theory for extreme flows. In contrast to most previous studies, here we focus on the scaling properties of events rather than on long term averages. We discuss possible relations between changes in the scaling properties and environmental factors such as climate variability, climate change, and land use/land cover change, as well as the potential implications for water security in the country. Our results show that, during the last few decades, the Magdalena river basin has maintained its capacity to regulate low flows (i.e. amplification) whereas it has been losing its capacity to regulate high flows (i.e. dampening), which could be associated with the occurrence of the extremes phases of  El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and anthropogenic effects, mainly deforestation. These results provide foundations for using the scaling laws as empirical tools for understanding temporal changes of hydrological regulation and simultaneously generate useful scientific evidence that allows stakeholders to take decisions related to water management in the Magdalena river basin in the context of environmental change.

How to cite: Marín, D. E., Salazar, J. F., and Posada-Marín, J. A.: Evidence of river flow regulation loss over time in the Magdalena river basin , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13716, 2021.

EGU21-13542 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Exploring causal relationships between vegetation coverage and the environmental parameter of Budyko-type models in the Nakanbe nested watersheds in West African Sahel

Patrick Yetchékpo Gbohoui, Tazen Fowé, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, and Hamma Yacouba

Abstract:

Budyko's conceptual framework is recognized in hydrology for its concise and accurate representation of long-term water and energy balances of watersheds. Based on the climate-environment coevolution, Budyko-type models capture the signature of environmental dynamics through climate. Many studies have shown a good correlation between the environmental parameter (u) of Budyko-type models and the vegetation coverage (M), but the analysis of the causal relationships between these two parameters has often received little attention. In this study, Convergent Cross Mapping, a causal discovery method, was applied to identify the causality between u and M from seven nested watersheds (areas ranging between 38 and 21,178 km2) of the Nakanbe River located in West African Sahel. The Budyko-type model developed by Chen and Sivapalan (2020) was forced with the climate data (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and actual evapotranspiration) to calculate u values for 11-years moving windows between 1977 and 2018. The vegetation coverage (M) was deduced from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. The results showed causal relationships between vegetation coverage and Budyko model parameter (convergence at a positive prediction skill) for all the watersheds. The causal influence detected is reciprocal (M influences u, and u influences M: M⇆u) for four of the seven watersheds studied. These results highlighted the existence and reciprocity of climate-environment interactions at different spatial scales.

Keywords:

Causal relationships, Budyko-type models, climate-environment interactions, Nakanbe River watersheds.

How to cite: Gbohoui, P. Y., Fowé, T., Paturel, J.-E., and Yacouba, H.: Exploring causal relationships between vegetation coverage and the environmental parameter of Budyko-type models in the Nakanbe nested watersheds in West African Sahel, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13542, 2021.

EGU21-7670 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Coevolution and Prediction of Coupled Human-Water Systems: A Synthesis of Change in Hydrology and Society 

Fuqiang Tian, Jing Wei, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Guenter Bloeschl

There has been increasing recognition that the global water crisis is due to lack of understanding of wider economic and socio-cultural perspectives, resulted from the intended and/or unintended consequences of co-evolution of coupled human-water systems. In light of such recognition, Panta Rhei Initiative (2013-2022) was proposed to focus on changes in both hydrology and society. Approaching end of this decade, it is time to synthesize the knowledge gained in our understanding of coevolution and prediction of coupled human-water systems. The synthesis will produce a book which includes five parts: (I) Motivation and Overview, (II) Theoretical Foundations and Methodological Approaches, (III) Synthesis of Work Done and Understanding Gained in Specific Application Areas, (IV) Panta Rhei Case Studies, (V) Grand Synthesis and Recommendations. This abstract will present a brief introduction of current progress of Panta Rhei Book.

How to cite: Tian, F., Wei, J., Sivapalan, M., and Bloeschl, G.: Coevolution and Prediction of Coupled Human-Water Systems: A Synthesis of Change in Hydrology and Society , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7670, 2021.

EGU21-11900 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Theoretical frameworks for understanding and predicting changes in hydrology and society 

Marc F. Müller, Maria Rusca, Ellis Adams, Maura Allaire, Günter Blöschl, Violeta Cabello Villarejo, Marion Dumas, Morgan Levy, Jenia Mukherjee, James Rising, and David J. Yu

Coupled human water systems (CWHS) are distinctive in their diversity. Humans both affect and are affected by water across multiple, and sometimes interacting spatial, temporal, management and governance scales. These relationships pertain to multiple characteristics of both the human (e.g., culture, institutions, historical processes, power relations, and economic incentives) and water (e.g., abundance, scarcity, quality) components of CWHS. Changes in any of these characteristics might ripple through CWHSs to affect key societal outcomes, such as the distribution of hydrological risk and access to water and sanitation. The complexity of understanding and predicting hydrological and social changes lies in the fact that there are multiple, interwoven CHWS, each of which has been examined through a variety of disciplinary and theoretical perspectives. 
This chapter synthesizes existing CHWS frameworks across the social, environmental and engineering sciences. We first propose a typology for the CHWS themselves by identifying both their defining and differentiating characteristics. We then develop a typology for the frameworks used to study them, based on philosophical perspectives and methodological approaches. We then identify promising approaches (what “worked”) and outstanding gaps for future work on CHWS. Finally, we leverage the two previously defined typologies to propose a general structure around which to synthesize knowledge in the subsequent topical chapters of the book. 

How to cite: Müller, M. F., Rusca, M., Adams, E., Allaire, M., Blöschl, G., Cabello Villarejo, V., Dumas, M., Levy, M., Mukherjee, J., Rising, J., and Yu, D. J.: Theoretical frameworks for understanding and predicting changes in hydrology and society , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11900, 2021.

EGU21-12613 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Methodological approaches to studying coupled human-water systems

Saket Pande, Ann Scolobig, Tobias Kueger, Joseph Guillaume, Melissa Haeffner, Jan Adamowski, Newsha Ajami, Dionisio Perez, Andrea Castelletti, Erhu Du, Tirthankar Roy, and Gemma Carr

This paper reports on the progress being made on the “Methodologies” chapter of the Panta Rhei synthesis book due in May 2023 and to be officially launched at 2023 IUGG General Assembly in Berlin.

Panta Rhei cornerstone emphasis is to support policies and decision making through better understanding of social and hydrological processes and anticipate their future evolution. However definitions of and motivations for anticipating future evolution, e.g. prediction of trajectories, have different sets of challenges for different disciplines. Human-water relations have been studied from a variety of perspectives. And Panta Rhei is not the first time human water relations are being studied. There is decades of experience, so why is it different this time than the last decades. The dominant paradigm of Panta Rhei has been prediction, with a few exceptions. And prediction itself has been approached differently within Panta Rhei and the research traditions it draws on. What can we learn from these differences in perspectives and methods for studies of humans and water?

In spite of all such differences, all such diverse perspectives are similar in understanding human-water relations through their own lenses and unified in their goal of improving societal well being through better understanding of social-hydrological relations. Different disciplines have different societal objectives or similar objectives with different lens within the domain of Panta Rhei. As a result different are methods used, with their respective challenges.

Taking stock of extensive research conducted in the past decade in context Panta Rhei, this chapter explores the motivations of diverse disciplines and challenges faced. It identifies a spectrum of methods that have been used to understand and interpret human water relations, with predictive methods at one end and descriptive methods at the other end of the spectrum. The chapter then synthesizes all such methods by taking three diverse examples of human water relations and interrogates how diverse methods approach the same examples – one of which is presented from which diverse themes around terminologies, ontology vs. epistemology, diverse methodologies used, generalizability vs transferability of methods and new data sets emerge.

It is concluded that for the first time diverse disciplines are converging in their pursuit of understanding and predicting human water systems for social good and Panta Rhei has accelerated this convergence. This chapter ends with a call to action on what further methodological developments appear promising and what methods should be more widely adopted, i.e. a celebration of what has been accomplished so far.

How to cite: Pande, S., Scolobig, A., Kueger, T., Guillaume, J., Haeffner, M., Adamowski, J., Ajami, N., Perez, D., Castelletti, A., Du, E., Roy, T., and Carr, G.: Methodological approaches to studying coupled human-water systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12613, 2021.

EGU21-9163 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Human-flood systems: Why “pluralistic floods research” is a conceptual breakthrough?

Alberto Viglione and Jenia Mukherjee

Floods are concurrently natural and social phenomena. Though generally represented as “natural calamity” and described as ‘phenomena of an atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic nature’, floods are strongly dependant on territorial as well as historicized dynamics and negotiations. Moreover, as floods offer aggravated threats in the Anthropocene, marked by unpredictable climatic perturbations, impacting marginalized communities inhabiting vulnerable landscapes, it is imperative to collectively understand human-flood systems to craft sustained solutions. Socio-hydrological contribution on human-floods system, building upon ‘complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains’, can be considered a significant advancement from hardcore flood hydrology confined to risk analysis through geomorphological accounting of river systems. With the hydrological science as a background, while the methods of socio-hydrology often rely on quantitative or mathematical modeling approaches to represent the human-floods systems, hydro-social analysis, emanating from political ecology, explores power equations in water-society relationship. Though the hydro-social literature mainly dealt with political and social injustices around utilities in urban landscapes for a long time, recently, the thrust has shifted to study stakeholders’ controversies in river basin (co)management and governance. We are in the process of establishing a team of experts from the physical and social sciences who are asked to provide a synthesis of the existing methodological frameworks on coupled human-flood systems, within the Panta Rhei IAHS initiative. Our work identifies and lays out converging possibilities along multiple paradigms, finally proposing a strong case for “pluralistic floods research” (see Evers et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9120933). We argue that a robust understanding of the human-flood systems imbibing “pluralistic floods research” can meaningfully contribute to ongoing debates on flood risk governance, facilitating spatially-informed and historically-contingent interventions, beyond purely technical approaches.

How to cite: Viglione, A. and Mukherjee, J.: Human-flood systems: Why “pluralistic floods research” is a conceptual breakthrough?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9163, 2021.

EGU21-12873 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Agricultural human-water systems: challenges, advances, and knowledge gaps

Pedro Medeiros, Xi Chen, Thushara Gunda, Pieter van Oel, Giulia Vico, Landon Marston, Jimmy O’Keeffe, Ethan Yang, Suxia Liu, Mahendran Roobavannan, Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Julio Iván Gonzalez-Piedra, Juan Castilla-Rho, Christophe Cudennec, and Murugesu Sivapalan

Dynamic interactions between humans and water have produced unanticipated feedbacks, leading to unsustainability. Current water management practices are unable to capture the relevant spatial and temporal detail of the processes that drive the coupled human-water system. Whereas natural and socioeconomic processes occur slowly, local communities and individuals rapidly respond to ensure supply-demand balance. In this context, agricultural human-water systems stand out, as roughly 70% of global water demand is for agricultural uses. Additionally, interactions between humans and agricultural water systems involve many actors and occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. For example, farmers are influenced by risk perceptions, and decisions made at the farm level influence regional hydrologic and socioeconomic systems, such as degradation and depletion of water sources as well as prices of crops. Regional behaviors, in turn, affect national and international dynamics associated with crop production and trade of associated investments. On the other hand, global and national priorities can also percolate down to the regional and local levels, influencing farmer decision-making through policies and programs supporting production of certain crops and local investments. Over the last decade, relevant phenomena in the coupled agricultural human-water systems have been described, as the irrigation efficiency paradox, reservoir effect, and river basin closure. Along with the globalization in the food market, attempts have been taken to developing and applying benchmarks for water-efficient food production, focusing on water productivities, water footprints and yield gaps for agricultural products. Furthermore, significant advancements have been achieved by incorporating social dimensions of agricultural human-water systems behavior. Fusion of quantitative datasets via observations, remote sensing retrieval, and physically-based models has been explored. Advancements have also been made to capture qualitative or relatively intangible concepts of community values, norms, and behaviors, by interacting with stakeholders, identifying the most important elements of their environments, and incorporating these insights into socio-hydrological models. Based on what has been done during the IAHS Panta Rhei decade and what we have learned, and despite recent efforts towards a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of human interventions in agricultural systems, several challenges persist, of which we highlight: 1) Identification of the cross-scale causal effect on agricultural water uses; 2) Quantification of human behavior uncertainties shaped by social norms and cultural values; 3) Development of a high spatial and temporal resolution global dataset.

How to cite: Medeiros, P., Chen, X., Gunda, T., van Oel, P., Vico, G., Marston, L., O’Keeffe, J., Yang, E., Liu, S., Roobavannan, M., Gopalakrishnan, S., Gonzalez-Piedra, J. I., Castilla-Rho, J., Cudennec, C., and Sivapalan, M.: Agricultural human-water systems: challenges, advances, and knowledge gaps, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12873, 2021.

EGU21-16494 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.4

Transboundary human-water systems

Jing Wei and Amin Elshorbagy

Transboundary rivers flow across political boundaries, requiring riparian countries to share a complex network of environmental, economic, political, social and security interdependencies. Transboundary river fluctuates in both space and time, and have multiple and conflicting demands on its uses, which have often resulted in tensions between riparian countries. Conflict and cooperation is thus an emergent phenomena of this co-evolved human-water systems. The choice of cooperative or conflictive behaviours from riparian countries is not only related to the nature of the water issue itself, but it attains more to the political, cultural, institutional, and socioeconomic conditions of the upstream and downstream countries involved. Understanding of the feedback mechanism is thus needed to be able to develop the understanding of how different actors cake to cooperation of conflict and knowledge to manage it effectively. As part of Panta Rhei Synthesis book, this study provides case study of transboundary human-water system by reviewing knowledge of conflict and cooperation dynamic from various disciplines, existing models and frameworks developed.  

How to cite: Wei, J. and Elshorbagy, A.: Transboundary human-water systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16494, 2021.

HS1.2.6 – The coupled terrestrial-atmospheric water cycle: model development, cross-compartment observations and data assimilation

EGU21-2862 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

The importance of satellite soil moisture assimilation for low-level jet forecasts

Craig R. Ferguson, Shubhi Agrawal, and Lance F. Bosart

The U.S. Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is active on 26% and 62% of May-September days in the northern and southern Plains, respectively. Characterized by a diurnally-oscillating low-level wind maximum below 700 hPa, large vertical wind shear, and enhanced atmospheric moisture convergence, LLJs have been shown to fuel extreme wind- and precipitation generating mesoscale convective systems. Overall, they explain 30-50% of May-September precipitation in the Plains. The considerable societal impacts of LLJs, which span agriculture, severe weather, and wind energy, have long motivated meteorologist-led investigations into their dynamics and predictability. The sensitivity of LLJs to regional soil moisture gradients was established over thirty years ago. However, it was only recently that our work provided the first estimates of the added-value of satellite soil moisture data assimilation (DA) to LLJ forecasts.

In this presentation, we review and expand upon our previous analysis of 75 NASA Unified WRF LLJ case studies simulated with- and without weakly-coupled NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture DA. Of the 75-jet cases, 43 are uncoupled LLJs and 32 are coupled LLJs. Their dynamical classification corresponds with the probable efficacy of land data assimilation. Cyclone-induced coupled LLJs, found in the warm sector of frontal systems, are strongly driven by synoptics and less likely to be influenced by land forcing. Conversely, uncoupled LLJs that occur during quiescent conditions of an anticyclonic high pressure ridge system are likely to be more strongly affected by terrain and soil moisture gradient-induced circulations.

It is shown that SMAP DA is generally more effective in uncoupled LLJ cases. However, significant SMAP DA-induced wind speed differences are noted for both LLJ types at their core and exit regions. Notably, the range of SMAP DA-induced wind speed differences between LLJs of the same class (i.e., uncoupled LLJs) is comparable to the range of differences between LLJs of different classes (i.e., coupled vs. uncoupled). Follow-on analyses presented here address the question of what differs between LLJs with small and large SMAP DA effects. Specifically, we explore attribution of event-scale differences in the added-value of SMAP DA to factors including SMAP spatial coverage, antecedent soil moisture, and the strength of synoptic forcing. Finally, a closer look is given to the verification of jet exit region SMAP DA-induced wind speed shifts using Rapid Refresh.

How to cite: Ferguson, C. R., Agrawal, S., and Bosart, L. F.: The importance of satellite soil moisture assimilation for low-level jet forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2862, 2021.

EGU21-11805 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Coupling the Community Land Model 5.0 with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework

Lukas Strebel, Heye Bogena, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen

Land surface models are important tools to improve our understanding of interacting ecosystem processes, but their predictions are associated with uncertainties related to model forcings, parameters and process simplifications. As high-quality observations become more and more available, they can be used to constrain the uncertainty of land surface model predictions. In this study, we use data assimilation for the fusion of data into the Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5). CLM5 simulates a broad variety of important land surface processes including moisture and energy partitioning, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen storage in vegetation and soil. Here, we focus on water movement in soils and related soil hydraulic parameters and assimilate in-situ soil moisture data into CLM5 to improve the estimate of model states and soil hydraulic parameters. To do this, we have coupled the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) with CLM5. This coupling is based on the online variant of PDAF, i.e., data assimilation occurs during simulation runtime in the main memory and not via input/output files. Online coupling requires modification of the model source code, but we aim to keep the modifications to the CLM5 code minimal so that maintenance of the ongoing CLM5 developments remains straightforward. To this end, our approach reuses the existing CLM5 ensemble mode with only necessary adjustments to connect the PDAF parallel communicators. Furthermore, we developed the coupling in the framework of the Terrestrial System Modeling Platform (TSMP). TSMP is a highly modular modeling system for the fully integrated soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. To illustrate the potential of this coupling, we use the ensemble Kalman Filter to perform simultaneous state and parameter updates in a forest headwater catchment.

How to cite: Strebel, L., Bogena, H., Vereecken, H., and Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.: Coupling the Community Land Model 5.0 with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11805, 2021.

EGU21-7439 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Building a coupled data assimilation system for the atmosphere, land-surface and subsurface on the catchment scale

Bernd Schalge, Barbara Haese, Bastian Waldowski, Natascha Brandhorst, Emilio Sanchez, Ching Pui Hung, Shaoning Lv, Lennart Schüler, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf Cirpka, Sabine Attinger, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer

We present a data assimilation (DA) system for the atmosphere-land-surface-subsurface system on the catchment scale. The Neckar catchment in SW-Germany served as the specific case where the DA in combination with the coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface model TSMP was used. TSMP couples the atmospheric model COSMO, the land-surface model CLM and the hydrological model ParFlow to the DA framework PDAF. We will discuss how the ensemble system is set up in order to work properly and what issues we faced during our initial testing. For the atmosphere we found that it is important to have a good ensemble of lateral forcings as changing internal parameters for various parametrizations does not introduce sufficient variability on its own due to the rather small size of our domain. For the sub-surface the choice of parameters becomes most important and as such parameter estimation will be a valuable tool for improving DA results significantly. Finally, we are showing some first DA results with our system concerning soil moisture with two different assimilation methods with a fully coupled model setup. In the first assimilation scenario in-situ soil moisture data measured by cosmic ray probes are assimilated, while in the second assimilation scenario remotely sensed near surface soil moisture is assimilated. The first results are encouraging and we discuss additional planned simulation scenarios with the fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface modelling system as well as plans to test strongly coupled DA, where measurements are used to update states across compartments, possibly resulting in additional accuracy gain compared to traditional uncoupled DA.

 

How to cite: Schalge, B., Haese, B., Waldowski, B., Brandhorst, N., Sanchez, E., Pui Hung, C., Lv, S., Schüler, L., Kunstmann, H., Cirpka, O., Attinger, S., Kollet, S., Neuweiler, I., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., and Simmer, C.: Building a coupled data assimilation system for the atmosphere, land-surface and subsurface on the catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7439, 2021.

EGU21-14491 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

The Role of Different Sources of Uncertainty in Data Assimilation with Coupled Land Surface - Subsurface Models

Eduardo Emilio Sanchez-Leon, Natascha Brandhorst, Bastian Waldowski, Ching Pui Hung, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Olaf A. Cirpka

EGU21-15529 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Estimation of water table, soil states and parameters of integrated subsurface-land surface models by data assimilation

Ching Pui Hung, Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Emilio Sanchez, Olaf Cirpka, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Clemens Simmer, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen

Estimating states and fluxes of the water cycle with terrestrial system models needs a large amount of input data, including soil and vegetation parameters, resulting in large uncertainties in model predictions. Assimilation of pressure head and/or soil moisture data can better constrain states and parameters of a terrestrial system model. Here we assimilate pressure head data and soil moisture data in a terrestrial system model over the Neckar catchment (13928 km2) with a spatial horizontal resolution of 800 m. We use the Terrestrial System Modeling Platform (TSMP), which consists of an atmospheric model component (not used in this work), the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), and the subsurface hydrological model Parflow, coupled by OASIS. TSMP is coupled to the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF), which allows the assimilation of land surface and subsurface observations to estimate the model states and parameters. In this work the localized Ensemble Kalman Filter (LEnKF) was used to update hydraulic head, soil moisture and/or saturated hydraulic conductivity by assimilating hydraulic head or in situ soil moisture observations for a period of one year. Ensembles of soil properties, leaf area index and atmospheric forcings were generated. The ensemble of atmospheric forcings considered correlations among four variables, and spatio-temporal correlations of the atmospheric variables using a geostatistical procedure. The characterization of the water table depth and river discharge without data assimilation and for different scenarios of pressure head and soil moisture data assimilation were compared.

How to cite: Hung, C. P., Schalge, B., Baroni, G., Sanchez, E., Cirpka, O., Kollet, S., Neuweiler, I., Simmer, C., and Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.: Estimation of water table, soil states and parameters of integrated subsurface-land surface models by data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15529, 2021.

EGU21-7392 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Updating the soil hydraulic parameters in a 3D subsurface model

Natascha Brandhorst and Insa Neuweiler

Soil moisture is an important variable for land surface processes. To make good model predictions of soil moisture, the flow processes in the subsurface need to be captured well. Flow in the subsurface strongly depends on the soil hydraulic parameters. Information about model parameters is often not available, at least not for the entire domain of interest. The resulting parameter uncertainty needs to be accounted for in the applied model. Data assimilation can account for parameter and model errors as well as for all other possible sources of uncertainty if observations are available that can be used to condition the model states. Thus, the parameter uncertainty might be reduced and model predictions improved. However, including the parameters increases the size of the state vector and thus the computational burden. Especially for large models, this can be a problem. Furthermore, the updates can produce unphysical parameter combinations which in unsaturated zone models often lead to numerical problems.

In this work, we test the effect of updating the soil hydraulic parameters along with soil moisture in a 3D subsurface hillslope model. We use the ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation and synthetic observations of soil moisture. In a similar study using a 1D unsaturated flow model, parameter updates were found to be the best way to handle parameter uncertainty. Updating parameters resulted in improved predictions of soil moisture, although not necessarily in more realistic model parameters. The parameter updates should rather be considered a method of treating parameter uncertainty than a method for parameter identification. In the 1D settings, updating all uncertain parameters led to the best results. Whether this still holds and is feasible for a more complex 3D model is the question addressed in this presentation.

How to cite: Brandhorst, N. and Neuweiler, I.: Updating the soil hydraulic parameters in a 3D subsurface model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7392, 2021.

EGU21-9006 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Impacts of wildfires on the 2020 floods in southeast Australia: A vegetation data-assimilation case study  using the NASA coupled LIS/WRF-Hydro system

Timothy Lahmers, Sujay Kumar, Aubrey Dugger, David Gochis, and Joseph Santanello

In late 2019 widespread wildfires impacted much of the New South Wales province in south east Australia, and this loss of vegetation contributed to increased surface runoff and consequently major flooding caused by extreme rainfall by early 2020. The recently developed NASA LIS/WRF-Hydro system enables the data assimilation (DA) capabilities of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the surface hydrological modeling capabilities of the WRF-Hydro model to be combined in a single model architecture. Combining the DA capabilities of the LIS system with WRF-Hydro, which has been used for both research and operational hydrologic simulations, we investigate the impacts of vegetation DA on the simulated floods in several basins across New South Wales, with varying degrees of burn severity from the 2019 fires. We also consider the impacts of the wildfires, as realized through vegetation DA on water partitioning and the surface energy budget, which both have implications for L-A interactions. For DA, we utilize the leaf area index retrievals from MODIS and vegetation optical depth from SMAP. For the present study, we will quantify the impact of the changes to the landscape brought about by the wildfires on hydrologic response, including flood severity, which would not be possible without the DA capabilities of the LIS/WRF-Hydro system.

How to cite: Lahmers, T., Kumar, S., Dugger, A., Gochis, D., and Santanello, J.: Impacts of wildfires on the 2020 floods in southeast Australia: A vegetation data-assimilation case study  using the NASA coupled LIS/WRF-Hydro system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9006, 2021.

EGU21-14026 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

An integrated atmospheric-hydrological model for high-resolution climate projections in the Adriatic Sea basin

Alfonso Senatore, Giorgia Verri, Luca Furnari, Giovanni Coppini, and Giuseppe Mendicino

AdriaClim is a project funded by the Italy-Croatia CBC Programme aimed at improving climate change information and providing monitoring and management tools for adaptation strategies in Adriatic coastal areas. Among the innovative tools planned, an integrated online coupled (Hydro-Meteo-Ocean-Wave-Biogeochemistry) model for the Adriatic Sea will be developed, which will run high-resolution simulations for the present/past time and future newly developed scenarios. The concept behind the integrated model is a comprehensive high-resolution representation of the hydrological cycle at the regional (Adriatic basin) level, overcoming classical approaches partitioning the description of the main physical processes into different compartments (i.e., ocean, atmosphere and terrestrial hydrology) interacting poorly each other and possibly missing crucial feedback, especially for long-term (climate) analyses.

This note presents the coupling approach for the atmospheric-hydrological component, introducing the main features that will be developed and the pilot areas used as test cases. The modelling system will be based on the WRF-Hydro architecture, which provides an extensible, multi-scale and multi-physics modelling capability for land-atmosphere coupling studies. WRF-Hydro modelling system will be applied over the whole Adriatic Basin, encompassing many catchments extending over six countries. A single 6 km-resolution domain will be used concerning atmospheric processes, with a further downscaling until 600 m-resolution for hydrological modelling. The hydrological model will be preliminary calibrated against multiple discharge observations in river sections as close to the rivers' mouths as possible with one full year simulation. Later, climatic simulations will be executed in fully coupled fashion for the historical period 2001-2020 and the future period 2031-2050 using the available EUROCORDEX ensembles as regional climate forcings.

First results of the ongoing activities will be presented, highlighting both the main outcomes in terms of modelling performance and the potential of further coupling to ocean, waves and biogeochemistry modelling components. The complete modelling system will be used for addressing a wide range of issues, including inundation/storm surge, salt wedge intrusion, sediment transport, transport and diffusion of E. coli, deterioration of transitional and coastal waters.

How to cite: Senatore, A., Verri, G., Furnari, L., Coppini, G., and Mendicino, G.: An integrated atmospheric-hydrological model for high-resolution climate projections in the Adriatic Sea basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14026, 2021.

EGU21-10883 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Impact of the atmospheric-hydrological fully coupled approach in a high-resolution medium-range forecasts: a case study in the Mediterranean

Luca Furnari, Linus Magnusson, Giuseppe Mendicino, and Alfonso Senatore

Mediterranean coastal areas are prone to hydrometeorological extremes. Their complex orography often enhances the severity of high impact events and, at the same time, makes forecasts more challenging, particularly in the medium range. Nevertheless, global operational forecasts significantly improved their accuracy in the last decades, while several novelties in mesoscale modelling are emerging, such as the atmospheric-hydrological fully coupled approach, which explicitly describes the complex interactions between the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and land surface including terrestrial lateral water transport. Overall, several clues open new perspectives to define new standards in medium-range forecast performances in the Mediterranean basin.

This study investigates the skills of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model both one-way and two-way coupled with the hydrological extension WRF-Hydro in providing a medium-range (7 days) forecast of a severe event hitting the Calabrian peninsula (southern Italy) in November 2019. Such event was simulated in a classical ensemble approach, using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ensemble product (Ensemble Prediction System – EPS), which consists of 50 members providing the initial and boundary conditions to the mesoscale model. WRF model was applied in two one-way nested domains with 10 km and 2 km horizontal resolutions, encompassing most of the Mediterranean basin. WRF-Hydro was applied in the innermost domain, with NOAH-MP as Land Surface Model. Surface and subsurface routing was performed adopting 200 m as horizontal resolution.

Results highlighted that the fully coupled approach increased soil moisture and latent heat flux from land in an increasing way in the days preceding the event. Such an increase partially affected the lower PBL layers. However, when shoreward moisture transport from surrounding sea rapidly increased becoming the dominant process, only a weak signature of moisture contribution from land to the atmosphere could be detected, resulting in only slightly higher precipitation forecast and slightly increased hydrological response. Overall, the proof-of-concept carried out in this study highlighted a remarkable performance of the medium-range ensemble forecasts, suggesting a profitable use of the fully coupled approach in the selected study area for forecasting purposes in circumstances in which soil moisture dynamics and exchanges with the atmosphere are of particular interest.

How to cite: Furnari, L., Magnusson, L., Mendicino, G., and Senatore, A.: Impact of the atmospheric-hydrological fully coupled approach in a high-resolution medium-range forecasts: a case study in the Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10883, 2021.

EGU21-6727 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

A new fully-coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for urban areas: development and testing

Mahdad Talebpour, Claire Welty, and Elie Bou-Zeid

Urban areas have distinct features (e.g. impervious surfaces) which modify the energy-water balance at the upper subsurface, lower atmosphere, and over the land surface. Moreover, the atmosphere and groundwater are strongly coupled in places with shallow groundwater. To improve the understanding of urban atmospheric-hydrological processes, their interconnections, and their impacts on other environmental processes, a new fully-coupled urban atmosphere-surface-subsurface hydrometeorological model was developed. The new model brings together WRF-PUCM (Princeton Urban Canopy Model) with ParFlow (a 3D variably saturated groundwater model with an integrated 2D overland flow component) to build WRF-PUCM-PF. The new model and the original non-coupled WRF-PUCM were both applied to a small watershed (10.64 km2) in a heavily urbanized area in the Baltimore metropolitan region as a demonstration test case. To capture atmospheric-hydrological processes at scales closer to urban heterogeneous land cover, models were run at a 90-m horizontal resolution using the LES mode in WRF. The analysis period after the two models were spun up to an identical initial condition spanned 96 hours from July 19 to July 23, 2008. The period was selected as it started with a drydown period for 40 hours followed by several intense rain events. This period allowed evaluation of both models' responses to dry-down and rain events. First the models were run with homogeneous similar hydrogelogic input to isolate the effect of terrestrial hydrology implementations in each model. In response to rain events, the homogeneous WRF-PUCM model output gained and retained a 40% greater amount of soil moisture (area-averaged) compared to the homogeneous WRF-PUCM-PF case. WRF-PUCM performed poorly in lateral distribution of water due to its 1D implementation of subsurface hydrology and lack of overland flow parameterization. The spatial distribution of soil moisture at the end of the simulation in a homogeneous WRF-PUCM model looked similar to the cumulative spatial distribution rain at the end of the simulation with no indication of surface topography impact on soil moisture distribution. On the other hand, lateral movement of water in WRF-PUCM-PF resulted in a more realistic distribution of soil moisture following topography. To further analyze the impact of urban areas, results of WRF-PUCM-PF simulations incorporating heterogeneous subsurface hydrogeology  were compared with WRF-PUCM with its 2D implementation of hydrogeology units for the region. The heterogeneous WRF-PUCM model generated a 10-fold greater area-averaged soil moisture increase compared to the heterogeneous WRF-PUCM-PF case. Influenced by lateral hydrology and impervious surfaces, the heterogeneous WRF-PUCM-PF model output, generated lower latent heat flux, resulting in half of the domain having higher land surface temperatures (2-10 ◦C), compared to the heterogeneous WRF-PUCM model. Overall, the new model provides a tool that can enhance simulation of urban areas by combining ParFlow’s representation of terrestrial hydrology, PUCM’s improved representation of the urban heterogeneous energy and water balance, and incorporation of higher-resolution urban heterogeneous microclimatic variations.

How to cite: Talebpour, M., Welty, C., and Bou-Zeid, E.: A new fully-coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for urban areas: development and testing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6727, 2021.

EGU21-7368 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

How is the atmospheric residence time of evapotranspired water altered with a dried-up lake or a forest restoration scenario and what is the impact on precipiation?

Jianhui Wei, Joël Arnault, Zhenyu Zhang, Patrick Laux, Benjamin Fersch, Sven Wagner, Ningpeng Dong, Qianya Yang, Chuanguo Yang, Zhongbo Yu, and Harald Kunstmann

Land surface characteristics and processes may have complex interactions with the physical and dynamical processes of the atmosphere. However, adequate methods for systemically understanding individual processes of the nonlinearly coupled land-atmosphere continuum are still rare. Therefore, in this study, the age-weighted evaporation tagging approach of Wei et al. (2016) and the three-dimensional online atmospheric water budget analysis of Arnault et al. (2016) were implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to the total and tagged atmospheric water states of matter, the latter approach was further extended for age-weighted tagged atmospheric water states of matter, thereby providing a prognostic equation of the residence time of state variables in the atmospheric water cycle. This extension allows to systematically quantify the fate of evaporated and transpired water in terms of magnitude, location, composition, and residence time. The extended WRF model was tested for a land use and land cover change study for the Poyang Lake basin, the largest freshwater lake in China. Two hypothetical scenarios, i.e., a dried-up lake and a forest restoration scenario, were simulated and then compared to a real-case control simulation using the original land-use data. The results of the basin-scale precipitation recycling in the context of evapotranspiration partitioning and the modified atmospheric water cycle due to both scenarios will be presented and discussed. We conclude that our newly developed modelling framework and the proposed analysis strategy have the potential to be applied for better understanding and quantifying the nonlinearly intertwined processes between the land and the atmosphere.

References:

Arnault, J., Knoche, R., Wei, J., & Kunstmann, H. (2016). Evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis with WRF: A regional precipitation recycling study for West Africa. Water Resources Research, 52(3), 1544–1567. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017704

Wei, J., Knoche, R., & Kunstmann, H. (2016). Atmospheric residence times from transpiration and evaporation to precipitation: An age-weighted regional evaporation tagging approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6841–6862. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024650

How to cite: Wei, J., Arnault, J., Zhang, Z., Laux, P., Fersch, B., Wagner, S., Dong, N., Yang, Q., Yang, C., Yu, Z., and Kunstmann, H.: How is the atmospheric residence time of evapotranspired water altered with a dried-up lake or a forest restoration scenario and what is the impact on precipiation?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7368, 2021.

In the year 2018, Central Europe experienced a meteorological drought and a heatwave, which led to a subsequent evolution of a hydrological drought that is still detectable in subsurface water storage anomalies today. Most likely, the drought also led to significant changes in the energy balance between solar radiation, latent and sensible heat fluxes. In conjunction with water scarcity in the subsurface, these changes may lead to feedbacks that mitigate or enforce drought conditions in the context of land-atmosphere coupling. Understanding these feedbacks is of great interest, especially under various large-scale weather patterns that strongly influence the water and energy budgets over Europe at the interannual time scale. We improve our understanding by applying the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) over the 12km resolution pan-European CORDEX model domain simulating the water and energy cycles from the groundwater to the top of the atmosphere. TSMP couples a hydrological, land-surface and atmospheric model, facilitating studies of feedbacks between total water storage anomalies, the energy budget and atmospheric processes. To investigate the feedbacks, we performed TSMP ensemble simulations of three anomalously dry water years (September to August) over Central Europe. The ensembles were initialized with the surface and subsurface states of the end of August of the drought years 2011, 2018 and 2019 from an ERA-Interim driven climatology simulated continuously with TSMP from 1989 to 2019. Every ensemble consists of 22 members, each representing a full subsequent water year, sampled from ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological boundary conditions from 1996 to 2019, thereby simulating the influence of drought conditions over a wide range of large-scale weather patterns that occurred in Europe since 1996. In addition, to illustrate the potential range of feedbacks we also ran idealized experiments with a completely dry or wet subsurface. The results show that drought conditions may have a significant impact on cloud water and solar radiation at interannual timescales. Effects in winter are negligible, while in summer, an impact of the drought conditions of the previous year on cloud water and solar radiation is detectable in all three ensembles. The results suggest that positive feedbacks between dry subsurface water storage anomalies and atmosphere processes are not negligible and may intensify drought conditions also at the interannual time scale.

How to cite: Hartick, C., Furusho-Percot, C., Goergen, K., and Kollet, S.: Exploring the mechanism behind successive droughts: Intensification of continental droughts due to positive feedbacks between subsurface water storage anomalies and atmospheric process, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8625, 2021.

EGU21-4253 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Evaluation of the new irrigation implementation in CTSM

Yi Yao, Sean Swenson, David Lawrence, Danica Lombardozzi, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery

Many observational and modelling studies have highlighted the important role that irrigation plays in the terrestrial hydrological and energy cycle. Land surface models are a key tool to study these interactions, underlining the importance of an accurate representation of irrigation in these models. However, most land surface models either ignore irrigation or represent it in a crude way. Here we improve and evaluate the implementation of irrigation in the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM), the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In this improvement, we consider three irrigation techniques (flood, sprinkler and drip), which differ in the amount and way of water applied. By combining global maps of the area equipped for irrigation with the distribution of different irrigation techniques, we represent the transient spatial distribution of irrigation techniques. Subsequently, we evaluate the performance of CTSM with the improved irrigation module. Three experiments are conducted: one with irrigation switched off, the second with the original irrigation module and the third with the improved irrigation module implemented. All three outputs are evaluated against observed or remotely sensed land surface energy fluxes and near-surface climate datasets. We anticipate that the results will reveal how our new irrigation schemes improve or reduce the performance of the land surface model.

How to cite: Yao, Y., Swenson, S., Lawrence, D., Lombardozzi, D., Vanderkelen, I., and Thiery, W.: Evaluation of the new irrigation implementation in CTSM, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4253, 2021.

EGU21-9735 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Floodplains representation in Land Surface Model : toward higher resolution

Anthony Schrapffer, Jan Polcher, Anna Sörensson, and Lluis Fita

Floodplains are flat regions close to rivers which are temporarily or permanently flooded. When they are next to large streamflow, their flooding is mainly related to the river overflow and, thus, to the precipitation occurring in the upstream regions. Large floodplains are important for the regional water cycle, the hydrological resources, the ecological services they provide and, when they are located in tropical regions, for their interaction with the atmosphere. Large tropical floodplains exist in the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Congo, the Paraguay and the Nile basins. 

On the one hand, floodplains are regions with scarce ground observations which lead to difficulties to assess the accuracy of the satellite products that limits their calibration. One the other hand, the dynamic of the floodplains is usually not integrated in Land Surface Models and even less in Earth System Models although they may be important for land-atmosphere interactions. There is a need to develop numerical schemes in order to be able to represent the impact of the floodplains on the water cycle. These schemes will also allow us to better understand the hydrological dynamics in these regions. 

The Land Surface component of the IPSL Earth System Model, ORCHIDEE (CMIP6 version) includes a river routing scheme with a floodplains scheme at a resolution of 0.5°. This scheme allows the water from the precipitation over the upstream region to flood and evaporate over the floodplains. Recent developments in ORCHIDEE driven by the need for a higher resolution routing scheme, based on sub-grid hydrological units, allowed us to implement a floodplain scheme which improves the representation of the overbank flow and the spatial distribution of ponded water with respect to the CMIP6 version of ORCHIDEE. 

This study focuses on the Pantanal region which is the world’s largest tropical floodplains and is located in the La Plata Basin, in the Upper Paraguay River (South America). ORCHIDEE’s sensitivity to the activation of floodplain schemes has been assessed through simulations performed at various resolutions. These simulations have shown the importance of representing floodplains to simulate the water cycle in the area. Combining these simulations and observations, we estimated the evapotranspiration loss by models when the floodplains scheme is deactivated to 90 mm/year over the Pantanal. The higher resolution scheme shows realistic simulations of the river discharge over the floodplains and is expected to improve the spatial distribution of the flooded area and, thus, the representation of evapotranspiration.

How to cite: Schrapffer, A., Polcher, J., Sörensson, A., and Fita, L.: Floodplains representation in Land Surface Model : toward higher resolution, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9735, 2021.

EGU21-723 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

The impact of global reservoir expansion on the present-day climate  

Inne Vanderkelen, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, William J. Sacks, David M. Lawrence, Martyn Clark, Naoki Mizukami, Yadu Pokhrel, and Wim Thiery

By now, humans have constructed more than 45 000 large reservoirs across the globe, increasing the global lake area with 8%. These reservoirs have large impacts on freshwater processes and resources by impounding continental runoff and altering river flows. So far, the impact of reservoirs on the climate remains largely unknown, as they are typically not represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). This is remarkable, as two-way interactions between reservoirs and climate are likely to alter hydrological extremes and impact future water availability.

Here we present the implementation of the role of reservoirs in the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM), a land surface model, by accounting for the increase in open water surfaces due to reservoir construction throughout the 20th century. To this end, we allow lake area to expand in the model, while ensuring that the surface energy and mass balances remain closed. We use reservoir and lake extent  from the state-of-the-art Global Reservoir and Dams (GRanD) and HydroLAKES data sets.

By conducting both land-only and coupled simulations with CTSM and the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we assess the added value of accounting for reservoir expansion in the land surface model performance and investigate their impacts on the mean climate and extremes. Globally, the effect of reservoirs on temperatures and the surface energy balance is small, but  responses can be substantial locally, in particular for grid cells where reservoirs make up a large fraction. Our results show that reservoirs reduce temperature extremes and moderate the seasonal temperature cycle, by up to -1.5 K (for reservoirs covering > 15% of the grid cell).

This study is an important step towards incorporating human water management in ESMs.

 

How to cite: Vanderkelen, I., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Sacks, W. J., Lawrence, D. M., Clark, M., Mizukami, N., Pokhrel, Y., and Thiery, W.: The impact of global reservoir expansion on the present-day climate  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-723, 2021.

EGU21-10121 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Analysis of stable water isotopes in tropospheric moisture during the West African Monsoon

Christopher Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Franziska Aemisegger, Fabienne Dahinden, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Stephan Pfahl, Andries de Vries, Heini Wernli, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke

Three-dimensional distributions of atmospheric moisture with high spatial and temporal variability arise from the complex interaction of the various branches in the hydrological cycle. By studying abundances of stable water isotopes, one can retrieve fundamental information about the physical processes acting in these branches. Differences in the molecular structure lead to characteristic responses of each water isotope to phase change processes, which reflects on characteristic ratios of water isotopes in different branches of the hydrological cycle.

In this study, we use tropospheric distributions of H2O and HDO (denoted as δD) to identify dominant processes in the hydrological cycle during the wet phase of the West African Monsoon in boreal summer. Here, large gradients in water vapor, strong convective activity and continental recycling lead to high variability of tropospheric moisture and its isotopic composition. This complexity makes a direct attribution of observed water vapor signals to underlying processes challenging.

To address this challenge, we use remotely sensed {H2O, δD} – pair data retrieved from spectra of the thermal infrared satellite sensor IASI, which are available daily and globally from October 2014 to June 2019. For an improved understanding of the IASI data, we add high-resolution model data from the regional isotope-enabled model COSMO-iso and generate Lagrangian backward trajectories for the Sahelian troposphere. This provides valuable insights into geometrical and moisture pathways along the history of Sahelian air masses that were observed from IASI. Further, after applying a retrieval simulator on the COSMO-iso data, we can conduct direct satellite-to-model comparisons.
By drawing these datasets together, we document and analyze the characteristic variability of the {H2O, δD} – pairs for the Sahelian troposphere on interannual, seasonal and convective scales. We identify distinct effects on {H2O, δD} – pairs of (1) synoptic-scale and boundary air mass mixing, (2) rain condensation during convection and (3) partial evaporation and isotope equilibration of rain drops during convection.

This study reveals the potential of using MUSICA IASI {H2O, δD} – pair data together with high-resolution modeling for investigating the tropospheric hydrological cycle. This approach is promising for understanding the relative importance of large-scale dynamics against microphysical phase transitions during convection on the tropical moisture distribution.

How to cite: Diekmann, C., Schneider, M., Aemisegger, F., Dahinden, F., Ertl, B., Hase, F., Khosrawi, F., Pfahl, S., de Vries, A., Wernli, H., Knippertz, P., and Braesicke, P.: Analysis of stable water isotopes in tropospheric moisture during the West African Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10121, 2021.

EGU21-2759 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

A joint soil-vegetation-atmospheric modeling procedure of water isotopologues with WRF-Hydro-iso: Implementation and application to present-day climate in Europe and Southern Africa

Joel Arnault, Gerlinde Jung, Barbara Haese, Benjamin Fersch, Thomas Rummler, Jianhui Wei, Zhenyu Zhang, and Harald Kunstmann

Water isotopologues, as natural tracers of the hydrological cycle on Earth, provide a unique way to assess the skill of climate models in representing realistic atmospheric and terrestrial water pathways. In the last decades, many global and regional models have been developed to represent water isotopologues and enable a direct comparison with observed isotopic concentrations. This study presents the recently developed regional model, WRF-Hydro-iso, which is a version of the coupled atmospheric – hydrological modeling system WRF-Hydro enhanced with a joint soil-vegetation-atmospheric description of water isotopologues motions. WRF-Hydro-iso is applied to two regions in Europe and Southern Africa under present climate condition. The setup includes an outer domain with a 10 km grid-spacing, an inner domain with a 5 km grid-spacing, and a subdomain with a 500 m grid spacing that can be coupled with the inner domain in order to represent lateral terrestrial water flow. A 10-year slice is simulated for 2003-2012, using ERA5 reanalyses for the boundary condition. The boundary condition of the isotopic variables is specifically provided with climatological values deduced from a 10-year simulation with the Community Earth System Model Version 1. For both Europe and Southern Africa, WRF-Hydro-iso realistically reproduces the climatological variations of the isotopic concentrations δP18O and δP2H from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. In a sensitivity analysis, it is found that land surface evaporation fractionation increases the isotopic concentrations in the rootzone soil moisture and slightly decreases the isotopic concentrations in precipitation, an effect that is modulated by the change in evaporation – transpiration partitioning caused by lateral terrestrial water flow. The ability of WRF-Hydro-iso to account for a detailed description of terrestrial water transport makes it as a good candidate for the dynamical downscaling of global paleoclimate simulations and for the comparison to isotopic measurements in proxy data such as plant wax fossils.

How to cite: Arnault, J., Jung, G., Haese, B., Fersch, B., Rummler, T., Wei, J., Zhang, Z., and Kunstmann, H.: A joint soil-vegetation-atmospheric modeling procedure of water isotopologues with WRF-Hydro-iso: Implementation and application to present-day climate in Europe and Southern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2759, 2021.

EGU21-13433 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

Water vapor isotopologues (H216O, H218O and HD16O) by ground-based FTIR spectroscopy in central Mexico

Alain Zuber, Wolfgang Stremme, Adolfo Magaldi, Michel Grutter, Caludia Rivera, Alejandro Bezanilla, Noemie Taquet, Thomas Blumenstock, Frank Hase, and Matthias Schneider

Knowledge about water vapor isotopologues is a useful tool in the study of the hydrological cycle. Total columns of water vapor isotopologues (H216O, H218O and HD16O) are measured by ground-based solar absorption FTIR spectroscopy at Altzomoni (3985 m.a.s.l, 19.12ºN, 98.66ºW), a high altitude subtropical remote background site in central Mexico (Barthlott et al., 2017). In the contribution we present the time series of the isotopic composition of water vapor columns and profiles above central Mexico and analyze differences in the isotopic ratios of H216O, H218O and HD16O between the rain and dry seasons of the year: in the rain season, changes in the isotopic ratios might be dominated by the diurnal cycle, which correlates with the relative humidity, temperature and dew point, while isotopic ratio in the dry season might depend more on the origin of the air parcels and transportation. We discuss the hydrological cycle in central Mexico using the relationship between light and heavy isotopes, and how this relationship gives valuable information about the pathways, sources and transport.

How to cite: Zuber, A., Stremme, W., Magaldi, A., Grutter, M., Rivera, C., Bezanilla, A., Taquet, N., Blumenstock, T., Hase, F., and Schneider, M.: Water vapor isotopologues (H216O, H218O and HD16O) by ground-based FTIR spectroscopy in central Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13433, 2021.

EGU21-15082 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.6

2D tracer transport on Cartesian and icosahedral grids: scheme comparisons for idealized test cases

Sakina Takache, Thomas Dubos, and Sylvain Mailler

The distribution of tracers in the atmosphere results from the presence and emission of gaseous and particulate matter, as well as their transport, sedimentation and (photo-)chemical transformations. Understanding and quantifying these processes in the atmosphere can be addressed through the use of global-scale or regional-scale chemistry-transport numerical models such as CHIMERE (Mailler et al., 2016).

 While possible in principle, it is impractical to use this model to represent long-range transport of dense plumes of gas and aerosols, resulting for instance from massive emissions by volcanic eruptions, forest fires and desertic aerosol tempests. Indeed such studies requiring both large domains and high resolution have a prohibitive numerical cost due to the formulation of CHIMERE on a regular Cartesian mesh. This limitation is shared by all currently operational chemistry-transport models. Additionally, traditional Cartesian meshes pose a numerical singularity at the poles, where the longitude lines converge.

 These limitations may be lifted by replacing CHIMERE’s Cartesian mesh by a fully unstructured mesh. This would allow modelers to vary resolution in space, and hence to focus computational resources in key regions with sharp variations (e.g. volcanic eruptions) where high spatial and temporal resolution is required.

 As a first step in this direction, we compare the numerical performance of transport schemes formulated on Cartesian meshes and schemes formulated on unstructured meshes (Dubey et al., 2015). To focus on differences due to numerics, the unstructured mesh is a quasi-uniform icosahedral mesh such as the one used by global dynamical core DYNAMICO (Dubos et al., 2015). Spatial and temporal coupled and de-coupled schemes of various order are implemented in each mesh framework. A suite of test cases is used to evaluate different properties of the mesh-scheme pairings.To avoid the Cartesian pole singularity, the Cartesian mesh covers a limited domain excluding the poles. Analytical wind fields adapted to this limited domain are used. Metrics are evaluated using the quantities obtained in the simulations, such as convergence using root mean square errors, shape preservation using non-linear tracer relations, and diffusion using total entropy. The stability and monotonicity of the used schemes are also numerically validated.

 We find that a scheme of the Van Leer family on the unstructured mesh has a performance slightly inferior to a similar scheme on a Cartesian mesh. However, since this loss in quality remains moderate, it should be possible to more than compensate for it with a variable resolution. We are currently investigating this question and will present variable-resolution results if this ongoing work is timely completed. If successful, fully unstructured meshes would be a significant step forward in the modeling of scale interactions in atmospheric chemistry, and would potentially allow breakthrough for the understanding of such interactions.

How to cite: Takache, S., Dubos, T., and Mailler, S.: 2D tracer transport on Cartesian and icosahedral grids: scheme comparisons for idealized test cases, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15082, 2021.

HS1.2.7 – Bridging physical, analytical and information-theoretic approaches to system dynamics and predictability in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

In this contribution, I will – with examples from hydrology - make the case for information theory as a general language and framework for i) characterizing systems, ii) quantifying the information content in data, iii) evaluating how well models can learn from data, and iv) measuring how well models do in prediction. In particular, I will discuss how information measures can be used to characterize systems by the state space volume they occupy, their dynamical complexity, and their distance from equilibrium. Likewise, I will discuss how we can measure the information content of data through systematic perturbations, and how much information a model absorbs (or ignores) from data during learning. This can help building hybrid models that optimally combine information in data and general knowledge from physical and other laws, which is currently among the key challenges in machine learning applied to earth science problems.

While I will try my best to convince everybody of taking an information perspective henceforth, I will also name the related challenges: Data demands, binning choices, estimation of probability distributions from limited data, and issues with excessive data dimensionality.

How to cite: Ehret, U.: Information Theory: A Swiss Army Knife for system characterization, learning and prediction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3034, 2021.

EGU21-95 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Detection of Local Mixing in Time-Series Data Using Permutation Entropy

Elizabeth Bradley, Michael Neuder, Joshua Garland, James White, and Edward Dlugokencky

  While it is tempting in experimental practice to seek as high a  data rate as possible, oversampling can become an issue if one takes measurements too densely.  These effects can take many  forms, some of which are easy to detect: e.g., when the data sequence contains multiple copies of the same measured value.  In other situations, as when there is mixing—in the measurement apparatus and/or the system itself—oversampling effects can be harder to detect.  We propose a novel, model-free technique to detect local mixing in time series using an information-theoretic technique called permutation entropy.  By varying the temporal resolution of the calculation and analyzing the patterns in the results, we can determine whether the data are mixed locally, and on what scale.  This can be used by practitioners to choose appropriate lower bounds on scales at which to measure or report data.  After validating this technique on several synthetic examples, we demonstrate its effectiveness on data from a chemistry experiment, methane records from Mauna Loa, and an Antarctic ice core.

How to cite: Bradley, E., Neuder, M., Garland, J., White, J., and Dlugokencky, E.: Detection of Local Mixing in Time-Series Data Using Permutation Entropy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-95, 2021.

EGU21-14146 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7 | Highlight

Predictably Predictable -  The Role of Catchment Characteristics and Complexity.

Sophia Eugeni, Eric Vaags, and Steven V. Weijs

Accurate hydrologic modelling is critical to effective water resource management. As catchment attributes strongly influence the hydrologic behaviors in an area, they can be used to inform hydrologic models to better predict the discharge in a basin. Some basins may be more difficult to accurately predict than others. The difficulty in predicting discharge may also be related to the complexity of the discharge signal. The study establishes the relationship between a catchment’s static attributes and hydrologic model performance in those catchments, and also investigates the link to complexity, which we quantify with measures of compressibility based in information theory. 

The project analyzes a large national dataset, comprised of catchment attributes for basins across the United States, paired with established performance metrics for corresponding hydrologic models. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was completed on the catchment attributes data to determine the strongest modes in the input. The basins were clustered according to their catchment attributes and the performance within the clusters was compared. 

Significant differences in model performance emerged between the clusters of basins. For the complexity analysis, details of the implementation and technical challenges will be discussed, as well as preliminary results.

How to cite: Eugeni, S., Vaags, E., and Weijs, S. V.: Predictably Predictable -  The Role of Catchment Characteristics and Complexity., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14146, 2021.

EGU21-14519 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Gaussianization for Multivariate, High-dimensional Earth Observation data Analysis

J. Emmanuel Johnson, Maria Piles, Valero Laparra, and Gustau Camps-Valls

Long-standing questions in multivariate statistics, information theory and machine learning reduce to estimating multivariate densities. However, this is still an unresolved problem and one of the biggest challenge in general, and for Earth system data analysis in particular, due to the high dimensionality (spatial, temporal and/or spectral) of the data streams. Gaussianization is a class of generative models (normalizing flows) that is effective in computing density estimates by using  a sequence of composite invertible transformations which transform data from its original domain to a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The methodology in turn allows us to estimate information theory measures (ITMs), which are relevant for the analysis and characterization of Earth system data superseding the mean, variance and correlation, as higher order measures, thereby capturing more complexity and providing more insight into various problems. We show that our Rotation-Based Iterative Gaussianization (RBIG) method allows us to compute ITMs from multivariate (spatio-spectral-temporal) Earth data efficiently in both computation and memory terms, directly from the Gaussianizing transformation, while being robust to data dimensionality . We demonstrate how Gaussianization is useful in various Earth observation data analysis problems, from hyperspectral image analysis to drought detection in data cubes.

How to cite: Johnson, J. E., Piles, M., Laparra, V., and Camps-Valls, G.: Gaussianization for Multivariate, High-dimensional Earth Observation data Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14519, 2021.

EGU21-4603 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Uncertainty analysis of solar/geomagnetic activity impact on terrestrial variables, based on the information theory 

Ileana Mares, Constantin Mares, Venera Dobrica, and Crisan Demetrescu

The present study aims at investigating uncertainty of external factors, namely the solar/geomagnetic forcing on the terrestrial variables as the Danube discharge and the atmospheric indices at the large scale. Our analysis was performed separately for each season, for two time periods, 1901-2000 and 1948-2000.

The relationship between terrestrial variables and external factors was achieved by applying the information theory elements as synergy, redundancy, total correlation and transfer entropy. 

The results differ depending on the time of year and the analysed variables.

From this analysis resulted that the two external forcings can be considered together as predictors for certain cases, while for others they are very redundant, therefore the one that produces the lowest uncertainty connection was selected.

How to cite: Mares, I., Mares, C., Dobrica, V., and Demetrescu, C.: Uncertainty analysis of solar/geomagnetic activity impact on terrestrial variables, based on the information theory , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4603, 2021.

EGU21-14440 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7 | Highlight

Hortonian Surface Runoff, Hillslope Form and Energy Dynamics, can we read the fingerprints?

Samuel Schroers and Erwin Zehe

Since Horton’s famous reinterpretation of Playfair’s law hydrologists have marvelled over the organization of drainage networks in catchments and on hillslopes. We start at the cross junction of hillslope hydraulics and geomorphology, trying to interpret the formation of hydraulic networks and erosion alike and wondering why movement of fluid creates structure at all.

In its most basic form structure and form has been explained as the result of optimization, either of certain types of energy such as free energy or its thermodynamic counterpart entropy. Research has shown that river networks and river junctions tend to minimize dissipation of kinetic energy and it has been suggested that simultaneously other forms of free energy, such as sediment transport tend to increase along the flow path. Studies have focused on hydraulic networks on the hillslope scale as well as on the catchment scale. Surprisingly little attention has been given to the question why these networks exists in the first place and why discharge confluences towards the catchment outlet.

In the first part of our study we put Hortonian surface runoff into a thermodynamic framework and derive the energy balance for steady state runoff. We derive the equations on the hillslope scale, where we observe the transition from evenly distributed potential energy (the rainfall) to spatially organized discharge in micro rills to larger rills and gullies. In hydraulic terms we distinguish between sheet- and rill flow. We then apply Manning-Strickler’s equation to estimate the distribution of hydraulic variables and compare energy conversion rates on typical 1D hillslope profiles for sheet- and rill flow. Interestingly, we find that only certain hillslope forms lead to spatial maxima of stream power.

In the second part of the study we extend the energy balance to transient flow and analyse power maxima during typical rainfall-runoff events. Finally, we relate our findings to observable, measurable hydraulic structures such as rill systems and estimate past work on sediments. We believe that current energy dynamics of surface runoff reflects past optimization and therefore holds potential for the understanding of landscape evolution and surface runoff contributions alike.

How to cite: Schroers, S. and Zehe, E.: Hortonian Surface Runoff, Hillslope Form and Energy Dynamics, can we read the fingerprints?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14440, 2021.

EGU21-9568 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

The SERGHEI model and its core shallow water solver

Mario Morales-Hernández, Ilhan Özgen-Xian, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième

The Simulation Environment for Geomorphology, Hydrodynamics and Ecohydrology in Integrated form (SERGHEI) model framework is a multi-dimensional, multi-domain and multi-physics model framework. It is designed to provide a modelling environment for hydrodynamics, ecohydrology, morphodynamics, and, importantly, interactions and feedbacks among such processes, at different levels of complexity and across spatiotemporal scales. SERGHEI is in essence, a terrestrial landscape simulator based on a hydrodynamics core, designed with an outlook towards Earth System Modelling applications. Consequently, efficient mathematical and numerical formulations, as well as HPC implementations are at its core. SERGHEI intends to enable large scale and high resolution problems, which will allow to acknowledge and simulate emergent behaviours rising from the small-scale interactions and feedbacks between different environmental processes, that often manifest at larger spatiotemporal scales.

At the core of the technical innovation in SERGHEI is its HPC implementation, built from scratch on the Kokkos programming model and C++ library. This approach facilitates portability from personal computers to Tier-0 HPC systems, including GPU-based and heterogeneous systems. This is achieved by relying on Kokkos handling memory models, thread management and computational policies for the required backend programming models. In particular, using Kokkos, SERGHEI can be compiled for multiple CPUs and GPUs using a combination of OpenMP, MPI, and CUDA.

In this contribution, we introduce the SERGHEI model framework, and specially its first operational module for solving shallow water equations (SERGHEI-SWE). This module is designed to be applicable to hydrological, environmental and consequently Earth System Modelling problems, but also to classical engineering problems such as fluvial or urban flood modelling. We also provide a first showcase of the applicability of the SERGHEI-SWE solver to several well-known benchmarks, and the performance of the solver on large-scale hydrological simulation and flooding problems. We also show and discuss the scaling properties of the solver (on several Tier-0 systems)  and sketch out its current and future development.

How to cite: Morales-Hernández, M., Özgen-Xian, I., and Caviedes-Voullième, D.: The SERGHEI model and its core shallow water solver, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9568, 2021.

A cyclone passed over Western Crete in October 17, 2006 and caused a heavy precipitation event producing a flash flood in a small agricultural basin. The only rain gauge in the studied basin recorded daily rainfall of 196.2 mm with a time-step of 15 minutes while 117 mm was recorded in 4 hours. Simulation of the flow hydrograph was performed with the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light and the calibration with the post-flood field data from witnesses that indicated the time to peak flow and the maximum water depth of the passing flood wave. The warming-up period of the model was sixteen days and the previous observed rainfall was 21 mm which was recorded on October 12th. Potential evaporation was estimated through the Blaney-Criddle method. The basin was divided into various elevation zones representing three vegetation classes. The parameters regarding the soil moisture routine were applied per vegetation class. Sensitivity analysis, performed by changing one parameter at a time shows that the parameters concerning the response and routing routine affected mostly the peak hydrograph. Initial results for the peak hydrograph were compared with the one validated with HEC-HMS model and produced a very good Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. There is on-going research of the effect of HBV-light parameters and further results will appear on the poster.

How to cite: Sarchani, S. and Tsanis, I.: Analysis of a short-duration severe precipitation event in a small ungauged basin through a semi-distributed hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15324, 2021.

EGU21-13477 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7 | Highlight

Spring freshet on East European plain: changes in drivers and conditions during last three decades

Maxim Kharlamov, Maria Kireeva, and Natalia Varentsova

Over the past 20 years, the climate on the East European plain tends to be significantly warmer and drier. Winters became shorter and spring freshet’s conditions have been changed significantly. Maximum snow depth was the most important factor of spring freshet formation 30 years ago, but nowadays it has no significance at all and main factor today is melt water losses on infiltration and evaporation.

We registered a decrease in the period of stable snow accumulation (on average by 20% in the southern and southwestern parts of the East European Plain) because of the increase in winter temperatures. More often during first part of winter snow cover disappeared totally. The number of thaws and their duration at the end of the winter also increase and this leads to earlier and more prolonged melting of the snow pack. In these conditions, an extremely low spring freshet is formed. Our studies show that with the condition of an equal maximum snow depth the slow snowmelt forms the spring freshet up to 4 times less in volume than the fast melting.

Soil moisture also plays an important role in the melt water losses. The most part of the East European Plain is characterized by a decrease in soil moisture in late autumn, which indicates increased losses during snow melting period.

Still, the most significant changes in the structure of the factors of spring freshet formation are common to the southern and southwestern parts of the East European Plain. In the northern part, conservative factors still dominate, although this area is characterized by the significant increase in winter temperatures.

The study was supported by Russian Science Foundation Proj. №19-77-10032

How to cite: Kharlamov, M., Kireeva, M., and Varentsova, N.: Spring freshet on East European plain: changes in drivers and conditions during last three decades, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13477, 2021.

EGU21-204 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Climate change impact on water exchange processes in the cryolithozone of the North-East of Russia

Nataliia Nesterova, Olga Makarieva, Anastasia Zemlyanskova, and Andrey Ostashov

Climate warming cause the transformation of hydrological cycle in cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The aim of this research is to study the climate change impact on water exchange processes in the cryolithozone of the North-East of Russia.

The study presents the results of the analysis of changes in the characteristics of the climate (air temperature, precipitation), water discharge, soil temperature at the 80 cm depth and river-ice cover for a period of 50 years (1966-2018) and historical and modern data of aufeis area.

Climate. The annual air temperature in the region increased by 2.3 °C on average. The analysis of annual precipitation showed multidirectional changes. However, most of the stations are characterized by a significant negative trend of precipitation in the winter and a positive annual trend of mixed and liquid precipitation with an increase in their share in the autumn months.

Permafrost. The average annual soil temperature at the 80 cm depth increased by 1.7˚С at 7 of the 11 stations in the studied area. The maximum change reached 4.8˚С in June at the Verkhoyansk station.

Streamflow. Significant increase of streamflow in the autumn-winter period (from August to December) at most of the rivers have been established. Even though permafrost warming is leading to deepening of active layer, we hypothesized that the main reason of base flow increase is the transition of precipitation from solid to liquid and corresponding increase of streamflow in September, continuing in the following months. There is a significant shift in the dates of spring freshet floods in May. But it does not lead to a decrease of runoff in June. This may indicate an increase of contribution to streamflow of such sources as thawing permafrost, glaciers and aufeis.

The river-ice cover. There are significant changes in the characteristics of the river ice cover and the time of the river ice formation. On average, at 19 analyzed river gauges the decrease of river ice cover maximum depth was 41 cm (28%) and the period of formation of river ice with a thickness of 60 cm (necessary for using winter roads for passenger cars) has shifted to later period by 7-40 days.

The aufeis. Aufeis is an important part of groundwater and surface flow interaction in the studied area. The analysis of the historical data and its comparison to modern distribution of aufeis in the region have shown significant changes. The total number (area) of aufeis was 4642 (7181 km2), according to the historical data (Cadastre of aufeis, 1958), and 6217 (3579 km2), according to Landsat data (2013-2019), which is 1.3 times higher by number, but 2 times less by total area.

The study indicates that considerable transformations are going on in all parts of hydrological cycle. The analysis results are used as the base for planning new multidisciplinary research to assess and project the changes in the natural conditions and water cycle in the cryolithozone of the North-East of Russia.

The study was carried out with the support of RFBR (projects 19-35-90090, 19-55-80028).

How to cite: Nesterova, N., Makarieva, O., Zemlyanskova, A., and Ostashov, A.: Climate change impact on water exchange processes in the cryolithozone of the North-East of Russia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-204, 2021.

EGU21-9344 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Spatial and Temporal Responses of Lakes in Northern Mongolia to Climate Change

Alexander Orkhonselenge, Dashtseren Gerelsaikhan, and Tuyagerel Davaagatan

Lakes play a valuable role in the surface water resources of Mongolia. Understanding surface water dynamics and climate change over various spatiotemporal scales from local to regional are essential in Mongolia today. This study presents how lakes in the Mongolian Altai, Khuvsgul, and Khentii Mountain Ranges at high latitudes in northern Mongolia responded to the climate change during the past 50 years. The temporal trend shows that the lakes had extended in the area during the first three decades but reduced during the last two decades. However, Lakes Khoton and Khurgan in the Mongolian Altai and Lake Khangal in the Khentii increased in the area during 1970–2000 and since 2010, but decreased from 2000 to 2010. Lake Tolbo in the Mongolian Altai dropped in the area during 1970–2000, and continuously increased since 2000. Whereas Lakes Erkhel and Khargal in the Khuvsgul and Lake Gurem in the Khentii extended in 1970–2000 but reduced during 2000–2020. The spatial trend in lake area changes shows similar patterns for glacial lakes at an elevation above 2000 m a.s.l. in the Mongolian Altai and for tectonic and fluvial lakes at an elevation below 1500 m a.s.l. in the Khuvsgul and Khentii. Anomalies of seasonal variations in air temperature and precipitation in the lake basins show that the Lake Khangal basin in the Khentii is warmer and wetter than other lake basins. Moreover, the Lake Khargal basin in the Khuvsgul is cooler in winter and autumn but warmer in spring and summer compared to the basins. Whereas Lakes Tolbo, Khoton, and Khurgan basins in the Mongolian Altai are drier than others. The correlation analysis shows that hydrological dynamics of Lake Khargal in the Khuvsgul are strongly dependent on summer precipitation (r = 0.71), and autumn (r = 0.67) and summer (r = 0.47) air temperatures. However, the linear regression shows that the lake area is moderately related to the summer precipitation (R2 = 0.5318) and the autumn air temperature (R2 = 0.4555). Overall, the lakes in northern Mongolia show the distinct responses of hydrological dynamics to the changing climate depending on their physiographic conditions.

How to cite: Orkhonselenge, A., Gerelsaikhan, D., and Davaagatan, T.: Spatial and Temporal Responses of Lakes in Northern Mongolia to Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9344, 2021.

The presented research examines what minimum combination of input variables are required to obtain state-of-the-art fractional snow cover (FSC) estimates for heterogeneous alpine-forested terrains. Currently, one of the most accurate FSC estimators for alpine regions is based on training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that can deconvolve the relationships among numerous compounded and possibly non-linear bio-geophysical relations encountered in alpine terrain. Under the assumption that the ANN optimally extracts available information from its input data, we can exploit the ANN as a tool to assess the contributions toward FSC estimation of each of the data sources, and combinations thereof. By assessing the quality of the modeled FSC estimates versus ground equivalent data, suitable combinations of input variables can be identified. High spatial resolution IKONOS images are used to estimate snow cover for ANN training and validation, and also for error assessment of the ANN FSC results. Input variables are initially chosen representing information already incorporated into leading snow cover estimators (ex. two multispectral bands for NDSI, etc.). Additional variables such as topographic slope, aspect, and shadow distribution are evaluated to observe the ANN as it accounts for illumination incidence and directional reflectance of surfaces affecting the viewed radiance in complex terrain. Snow usually covers vegetation and underlying geology partially, therefore the ANN also has to resolve spectral mixtures of unobscured surfaces surrounded by snow. Multispectral imagery if therefore acquired in the fall prior to the first snow of the season and are included in the ANN analyses for assessing the baseline reflectance values of the environment that later become modified by the snow. In this study, nine representative scenarios of input data are selected to analyze the FSC performance. Numerous selections of input data combinations produced good results attesting to the powerful ability of ANNs to extract information and utilize redundancy. The best ANN FSC model performance was achieved when all 15 pre-selected inputs were used. The need for non-linear modeling to estimate FSC was verified by forcing the ANN to behave linearly. The linear ANN model exhibited profoundly decreased FSC performance, indicating that non-linear processing more optimally estimates FSC in alpine-forested environments.

How to cite: Wisniewski, E. and Wisniewski, W.: Assessment of nominal data requirements for robust estimation of fractional snow cover in alpine-forested terrain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14212, 2021.

EGU21-6312 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Learning from mistakes - Assessing the performance and uncertainty in process-based models

Benjamin Roesky, Moritz Feigl, Mathew Herrnegger, Karsten Schulz, and Masaki Hayashi

Typical applications of process- or physically-based models aim to gain a better process understanding of certain natural phenomena or to estimate the impact of changes in the examined system caused by anthropogenic influences, such as land-use or climate change. To adequately represent the physical system, it is necessary to include all (essential) processes in the applied model and to observe relevant inputs in the field. However, model errors, i.e. deviations between observed and simulated values, can still occur. Other than large systematic observation errors, simplified, misrepresented or missing processes are potential sources of errors. This study presents a set of methods and a proposed workflow for analyzing errors of process-based models as a basis for relating them to process representations.

The evaluated approach consists of three steps: (1) prediction of model errors with a machine learning (ML) model using data that might be associated with model errors (e.g., model input data), (2) derivation of variable importance (i.e. contribution of each input variable to prediction) for each predicted model error using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), (3) clustering of SHAP values of all predicted errors to derive groups with similar error generation characteristics. By analyzing these groups of different error/variable association, hypotheses on error generation and corresponding processes can be formulated. This analysis framework can ultimately lead to improving hydrologic understanding and prediction.

The framework is applied to the physically-based stream water temperature model HFLUX in a case study for modelling an alpine stream in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Initial statistical tests show a significant association of model errors with available meteorological and hydrological variables. By using these variables as input features, the applied ML model is able to predict model residuals. Clustering of SHAP values results in four distinct error groups that can be related to tree shading, sensible and latent heat flux and longwave radiation emitted by trees.

Model errors are rarely random and often contain valuable information. Assessing model error associations is ultimately a way of enhancing trust in implemented processes and of providing information on potential areas of improvement to the model.

How to cite: Roesky, B., Feigl, M., Herrnegger, M., Schulz, K., and Hayashi, M.: Learning from mistakes - Assessing the performance and uncertainty in process-based models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6312, 2021.

Strategic narratives (persuasive use of story systems) in science communication have been gathering
increasing support, especially in the face of misunderstandings about high-impact climatic change and hydrometeorologic extremes.
The use of these narratives reveals, in line with linguistic research, that traditional scientific discourse
conception has become outdated. Should scientific discourse be centered on the description of discoveries?
Should the role of political discourse be to convince someone to act? Before answering these, it is necessary to
understand the crucial function that uncertainty plays in communication, along with its consequences in the
concepts of objectivity and truth. More importantly, understanding its role in scientific society and sustainability.
Unable to eliminate uncertainty altogether, science becomes an essential escort to recognize, manage
and communicate its pertinency. However, the most popular strategic narratives sideline uncertainty as a threat.
Denialists follow a similar approach, though they communicate uncertainty to discredit evidence. Comparatively,
in their latest Assessment Report, the IPCC characterized uncertainty whilst stating: “uncertainty about impacts
does not prevent immediate action”.
Scientific discourse outputs and social reality constructions influence each other. The moralization of
science communication reveals how XVII century revolutionary skepticism can now be perceived as a threat, and
facts expected from science can be deemed dogmatic truths and perceived as decrees through rationalism and as
an extension of Judeo-Christian philosophical influence. Equally important, uncertainty reinforces individual
freedom, while society grasps and recognizes certainty as security and demands it from institutions, accepting
degrees of authoritarianism to maintain a tolerable living condition.
From “Climate Emergency” to “Thousand-Year Flood”, public interest in climatic change and extremes
increases following high-impact events, yet trust in science plunges into a deep polarized divide among absolute
acceptance and outright rejection relative to the bold headlines conveyed not only in the media but also in some
scientific literature.
Political, religious and activist leaders strike one as prophets acting in the name of science. From
rationalism to rationality, scientific culture is pivotal to the analysis of complexity, objectivity, and uncertainty in
the definition of truth (absent from epistemological discussions for centuries). Humor/sarcasm, literature or
dialectic are examples of how to communicate entropy of scientific models, while reflecting about the role,
uncertainty, and mistake, retain in life.
“People want certainty, not knowledge”, said Bertrand Russel. However, neither science nor democracy
work like that, rather taking reality as having shades of grey instead of a reduced black-or-white dichotomy.
Science is not about giving just one single number to problems clearly not reducible to such, as that gives a false
sense of certainty and security in an entropic world where we cannot control everything.
In order to objectively analyze discourses in light of their uncertainty features, detecting whether they
contain polarized, absolutistic narrative patterns, we introduce a new process-consistent Artificial Intelligence
framework, building from Perdigão (2020, https://doi.org/10.46337/200930). The complementarity of our
approach relative to both social and information technologies is brought out, along with ways forward to reinforce
the fundamental role of uncertainty in scientific communication, and to strengthen public confidence in the
scientific endeavor.

How to cite: Ribau, M., Perdigão, R., and Hall, J.: From rationalization to rationality: (In)sustainability of strategic narratives in  science communication, ranging from climatic change to hydro-meteorological extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2360, 2021.

The Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) describes the time evolution of the distribution function of fluctuating macroscopic variables.  Although the FPE was originally derived for the Brownian motion, this framework can be applied to various physical processes.  In this presentation, applications in the snow accumulation and thaw process, which attributes to considerable spatial and temporal variations, are discussed. It is well known that snow process is a major source of heterogeneity in hydrological systems in high altitude or latitude regions; therefore, better treatment of the snow sub-grid variability is desirable. The main advantage of the FPE approach is that it can dynamically compute the probability density function (PDF) governed by an advection-diffusion type FPE without a prescribed PDF.

First, a bivariate FPE was derived from point scale process-based governing equations (Ohara et al., 2008). This FPE can express the evolution of the PDF of snow depth and temperature within a finite space, possibly a computational cell or small basin, whose shape is irrelevant. This conceptual model was proven to be effective through comparing to the corresponding Monte-Carlo simulation.  Then, the more realistic single variated FPE model for snow depth was implemented with the snow redistribution and snowmelt rate as the main sources of stochasticity. In this study, several realistic approximations were proposed to compute the time-space covariances describing effects induced by uneven snowmelt and snow redistribution.

Meanwhile, observed high-resolution snow depth data was analyzed using statistical methods to characterize the sub-grid variability of snow depth, which is essential to validate the FPE model for representing such sub-grid variability.  Airborne light detection and ranging (Lidar) provided the snow depth measurements at 0.5 m resolution over two mountainous areas in southwestern Wyoming, Snowy Range and Laramie Range (He et al., 2019). It was found that PDFs of snow depth tend to be Gaussian distributions in the forest areas. However, due to the no-snow areas effect, mainly caused by snow redistribution and uneven snowmelt, the PDFs are eventually skewed as non-Gaussian distribution.

The simulated results of the FPE model were validated using the measured time series of snow depth at one site and the spatial distributions of snow depth measured by ground penetrating radar (GPR) and airborne Lidar. The modeled and observed time series of the mean snow depth agreed very well while the simulated PDFs of snow depth within the study area were comparable to the observed PDFs of snow depth by GPR and Lidar (He and Ohara, 2019). Accordingly, the FPE model is capable to capture the main characteristics of the snow sub-grid variability in the nature.

References

Ohara, N., Kavvas, M. L., & Chen, Z. Q. (2008). Stochastic upscaling for snow accumulation and melt processes with PDF approach. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 13(12), 1103-1118.

He, S., Ohara, N., & Miller, S. N. (2019). Understanding subgrid variability of snow depth at 1‐km scale using Lidar measurements. Hydrological Processes, 33(11), 1525-1537.

He, S., & Ohara, N. (2019). Modeling subgrid variability of snow depth using the Fokker‐Planck equation approach. Water Resources Research, 55(4), 3137-3155.

How to cite: Ohara, N.: Dynamic Snow Distribution Modeling using the Fokker-Planck Equation Approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12532, 2021.

Complex System Dynamics, Causality and Predictability pose fundamental challenges even under well-defined structural stochastic-dynamic conditions where the laws of motion and system symmetries are known.

However, the edifice of complexity can be profoundly transformed by structural-functional coevolution and non-recurrent elusive mechanisms changing the very same invariants of motion that had been taken for granted. This leads to recurrence collapse and memory loss, precluding the ability of traditional stochastic-dynamic, information-theoretic and artificial intelligence approaches to provide reliable information about the non-recurrent emergence of fundamental new properties absent from the a priori kinematic geometric and statistical features.

Unveiling causal mechanisms and eliciting system dynamic predictability under such challenging conditions is not only a fundamental problem in mathematical and statistical physics, but also one of critical importance to dynamic modelling, risk assessment and decision support e.g. regarding non-recurrent critical transitions and extreme events.

In order to address these challenges, generalized metrics in non-ergodic information physics are hereby introduced for unveiling elusive dynamics, causality and predictability of complex dynamical systems undergoing far-from-equilibrium structural-functional coevolution, building from Perdigão (2017, 2018, 2020a, 2020b), Perdigão et al. (2020).

With these methodological developments at hand, hidden dynamic information is hereby brought out and explicitly quantified even beyond post-critical regime collapse, long after statistical information is lost. The added causal insights and operational predictive value are further highlighted by evaluating the new information metrics among statistically independent variables, where traditional techniques therefore find no information links. Notwithstanding the factorability of the distributions associated to the aforementioned independent variables, synergistic and redundant information are found to emerge from microphysical, event-scale codependencies in far-from-equilibrium nonlinear statistical mechanics.

The findings are illustrated to shed light onto fundamental causal mechanisms and unveil elusive dynamic predictability of non-recurrent critical transitions and extreme events across multiscale hydro-climatic problems.

 

References:

Perdigão R.A.P. (2017): Fluid Dynamical Systems: from Quantum Gravitation to Thermodynamic Cosmology. https://doi.org/10.46337/mdsc.5091.

Perdigão R.A.P. (2018): Polyadic Entropy, Synergy and Redundancy among Statistically Independent Processes in Nonlinear Statistical Physics with Microphysical Codependence. Entropy, 20(1), 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20010026.

Perdigão R.A.P. (2020a): Synergistic Dynamic Causation and Prediction in Coevolutionary Spacetimes. https://doi.org/10.46337/mdsc.5546.

Perdigão, R.A.P. (2020b): Information Physical Artificial Intelligence in Complex System Dynamics: Breaking Frontiers in Nonlinear Analytics, Model Design and Socio-Environmental Decision Support in a Coevolutionary World. https://doi.org/10.46337/200930.

Perdigão R.A.P., Ehret U., Knuth K.H. & Wang, J. (2020) Debates: Does information theory provide a new paradigm for Earth science? Emerging concepts and pathways of information physics. Water Resources Research, 56(2), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025270.

 

How to cite: Perdigão, R. A. P. and Hall, J.: Information Physical Complexity, Causality and Predictability across Coevolutionary Spacetimes: Theory and Hydro-Climatic Applications, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9678, 2021.

EGU21-13741 | vPICO presentations | HS1.2.7

Fractal-multifractal ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature sets as implied by climate models

Mahesh Lal Maskey, David Joseph Serrano Suarez, Joshua H. Viers, Josue Medellin-Azuara, Bellie Sivakumar, and Laura Elisa Garza Diaz

Describing the specific details and textures implicit in real-world hydro-climatic data sets is paramount for the proper description and simulation of variables such as precipitation, streamflow, and temperature time series. To this aim, a couple of decades ago, a deterministic geometric approach, the so-called fractal-multifractal (FM) method,1,2 was introduced. Such is a holistic approach capable of faithfully encoding (describing)3, simulating4, and downscaling5 hydrologic records in time, as the outcome of a fractal function illuminated by a multifractal measure. This study employs the FM method to generate ensembles of daily precipitation and temperature sets obtained from global circulation models (GCMs). Specifically, this study uses data obtained via ten GCM models, two sets of daily records, as implied from the past, over a year, and three sets projected for the future, as downscaled via localized constructed analogs (LOCA) for a couple of sites in California. The study demonstrates that faithful representations of all sets may be achieved via the FM approach, using encodings relying on 10 and 8 geometric (FM) parameters for rainfall and temperature, respectively. They result in close approximations of the data's histogram, entropy, and autocorrelation functions. By presenting a sensitivity study of FM parameters' for historical and projected data, this work concludes that the FM representations are useful for tracking and foreseeing the records' complexity6 in the past and the future and other applications in hydrology such as bias correction.

 

 

References

How to cite: Maskey, M. L., Serrano Suarez, D. J., Viers, J. H., Medellin-Azuara, J., Sivakumar, B., and Diaz, L. E. G.: Fractal-multifractal ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature sets as implied by climate models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13741, 2021.

HS2.1.1 – Changes in the Mediterranean hydrology: observation and modeling

EGU21-2306 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Contribution of remote sensing and auxiliary variables in the study of the evolution of periods of droughts

Nesrine Farhani, Gilles Boulet, Julie Carreau, Zeineb Kassouk, Michel Le Page, Zohra Lili Chabaane, and Rim Zitouna

In semi-arid areas, plant water use and plant water stress can be derived over large
areas from remotely sensed evapotranspiration estimates. Those can help us to monitor the
impact of drought on the agro- and ecosystems. Both variables can be simulated by a dual
source energy balance model that relies on meteorological variables (air temperature, relative
humidity, wind speed and global radiation) and remote sensing data (surface temperature,
NDVI, albedo and LAI). Surface temperature acquired in the Thermal InfraRed (TIR) domain
is particularly informative for monitoring agrosystem health and adjusting irrigation
requirements. However, available meteorological observations period may often be
insufficient to account for the variability present in the study area. Statistical downscaling
methods applied to reanalysis data can serve to generate surrogate series of meteorological
variables that either fill the gaps in the observation period or extend the observation period in
the past. For this aim, a stochastic weather generator (SWG) is adapted in order to compute
temporal extension of multiple meteorological variables. This surrogate series is then used to
constrain the dual-source model Soil Plant Atmosphere and Remote Evapotranspiration
(SPARSE). Stress index anomalies retrieved from SPARSE are then compared to anomalies in
other wave lengths in order to assess their capacity to detect incipient water stress and early
droughts at the kilometer resolution. Those are the root zone soil moisture at low resolution
derived from the microwave domain, and active vegetation fraction cover deduced from
NDVI time series.

How to cite: Farhani, N., Boulet, G., Carreau, J., Kassouk, Z., Le Page, M., Lili Chabaane, Z., and Zitouna, R.: Contribution of remote sensing and auxiliary variables in the study of the evolution of periods of droughts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2306, 2021.

EGU21-14780 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Analysis of agronomic drought over North Africa using remote sensing satellite data

Mehrez Zribi, Simon Nativel, and Michel Le Page

This paper aims to analyze the agronomic drought in a highly anthropogenic  semi-arid region, North Africa. In the context of the Mediterranean climate, characterized by frequent droughts, North Africa is particularly affected. Indeed, in addition to this climatic aspect, it is one of the areas most affected by water scarcity in the world. Thus, understanding and describing agronomic drought is essential. The proposed study is based on remote sensing data from TERRA-MODIS and ASCAT satellite, describing the dynamics of vegetation cover and soil water content through NDVI and SWI indices. Two indices are analyzed, the Vegetation Anomaly Index (VAI) and the Moisture Anomaly Index (MAI). The dynamics of the VAI is analyzed for different types of regions (agircultural, forest areas). The contribution of vegetation cover is combined with the effect of soil water content through a new drought index combining the VAI and MAI. A discussion of this combination is proposed on different study areas in the study region. It illustrates the complementarity of these two informations in analysis of agronomic drought.

How to cite: Zribi, M., Nativel, S., and Le Page, M.: Analysis of agronomic drought over North Africa using remote sensing satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14780, 2021.

EGU21-14590 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Cereal yield forecasting combining satellite drought-based indices, regional climate and weather data using machine learning approaches in Morocco

El houssaine Bouras, Lionel Jarlan, Salah Er-Raki, Riad Balaghi, Abdelhakim Amazirh, Bastien Richard, and Saïd Khabba

Cereals are the main crop in Morocco. Its production exhibits a high inter-annual due to uncertain rainfall and recurrent drought periods. Considering the importance of this resource to the country's economy, it is thus important for decision makers to have reliable forecasts of the annual cereal production in order to pre-empt importation needs. In this study, we assessed the joint use of satellite-based drought indices, weather (precipitation and temperature) and climate data (pseudo-oscillation indices including NAO and the leading modes of sea surface temperature -SST- in the mid-latitude and in the tropical area) to predict cereal yields at the level of the agricultural province using machine learning algorithms (Support Vector Machine -SVM-, Random forest -FR- and eXtreme Gradient Boost -XGBoost-) in addition to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Also, we evaluate the models for different lead times along the growing season from January (about 5 months before harvest) to March (2 months before harvest). The results show the combination of data from the different sources outperformed the use of a single dataset; the highest accuracy being obtained when the three data sources were all considered in the model development. In addition, the results show that the models can accurately predict yields in January (5 months before harvesting) with an R² = 0.90 and RMSE about 3.4 Qt.ha-1.  When comparing the model’s performance, XGBoost represents the best one for predicting yields. Also, considering specific models for each province separately improves the statistical metrics by approximately 10-50% depending on the province with regards to one global model applied to all the provinces. The results of this study pointed out that machine learning is a promising tool for cereal yield forecasting. Also, the proposed methodology can be extended to different crops and different regions for crop yield forecasting.

How to cite: Bouras, E. H., Jarlan, L., Er-Raki, S., Balaghi, R., Amazirh, A., Richard, B., and Khabba, S.: Cereal yield forecasting combining satellite drought-based indices, regional climate and weather data using machine learning approaches in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14590, 2021.

EGU21-15613 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Basis for a flood early-warning system approach in fast-flow  Mediterranean catchments: The case study of Cala reservoir (Spain)

Eva Contreras, Sergio Vela, Rafael Pimentel, and María José Polo

An optimal operation criteria in Mediterranean dams is specially required to prevent damages associated with flood and drought events, which are common and directly connected with the intrinsic seasonal and annual climate variability over these regions. That need is clear in multipurpose dams, that usually include hydropower systems in these catchments. These systems must guarantee an equilibrium between an optimum storage for production and the capacity needed for flood abatement. Specially relevant are torrential flooding events, in which quick decisions need to be taken to prevent not only the associated damages, but also the energy production losses connected to a conservative approach. Those facts are translated into a huge range of possibilities that difficulties the optimization of decision making processes. On the one hand,  several meteorological forecasting systems at different spatiotemporal scales are currently available. However, the greater uncertainty linked to the rapid response time of these catchments limits their use. On the other hand, the insufficient number of control points with available real time measurements (i.e., precipitation gauges and water level controls) challenges the creation of early warning systems with an appropriate uncertainty quantification.

This study proposes the basis for the definition of an early warning system based on a limited number of real time in situ measurements in a characteristic Mediterranean catchment. The Cala dam (59 hm3), located in the Rivera de Cala river, was chosen as an example. Cala dam is mainly used for hydroelectric production, but also for irrigation and leisure activities. Their upstream catchment (535 km2) is characterized by agroforestry uses and a quick response to intense precipitation due to steep slopes, shallow soils and groundwater redistribution, which does not favour the lamination of water. In situ historical information from, stations with available real time data in the watershed is used to: (a) define driver indicators of key streamflow states (i.e., a threshold in the cumulative precipitation since the beginning of the hydrological year or precipitation intensity over certain months); and, (b) caracterize and cluster precipitation-runoff events over the catchment. The three resulting most significant three types of events were validated during the last period of the observed data. This information was translated into a decision tree using a conditional structure, constituting the basis of the designed early warning system This scheme allows to identify the potential occurrence of a warning situation, which is fixed by the normal operational rules of the reservoir. Once the flood event is underway, the use of real time information about the water volume stored in the reservoir and the estimated probability of occurrence of an discharge event in the next hour based on antecedents precipitation, are the hydrological indicators to base the decision on together with the generation thresholds and requirements of the hydropower system. The approach is also validated based on historical information within a hindcast process during the validation period.

How to cite: Contreras, E., Vela, S., Pimentel, R., and Polo, M. J.: Basis for a flood early-warning system approach in fast-flow  Mediterranean catchments: The case study of Cala reservoir (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15613, 2021.

EGU21-4722 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1 | Highlight

Changing patterns of extreme hydrological events in Morocco 

Sara Boughdadi, M. El Mehdi Saidi, and Yves Tramblay

Morocco experiences a semi-arid climate with both Mediterranean and Atlantic  influences, causing a strong variability of rainfall. It has also high mountain ranges from North to South, separating vast regions with contrasted climatic and hydrologic conditions. In this context, Morocco is highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and extended drought periods, impacting the population and the economic activities. In a global change context, there is a need to investigate whether these hydrological extremes are becoming stronger since an increased vulnerability has been observed in the last decades. Here, we analyzed long-term time series of daily flows from 17 basins located in the North (Mediterranean: Loukkos), in the center (Atlantic: Bourgreg, Oum Errabia) and in the South Western (Tensift, Souss, Massa, Draa) of Morocco. The objective is to evaluate the evolution of floods and low-flows in a regional perspective. For that purpose, statistical models for extreme values allowing non-stationarity are used in combination with trend-detection tests. The results showed increasing trends in maximum annual flows only at two stations in central Morocco, while decreasing trends in the north and south prevail. On the contrary, changes in low-flows and river intermittency are more widespread across the basins with contrasted climatic conditions.

How to cite: Boughdadi, S., Saidi, M. E. M., and Tramblay, Y.: Changing patterns of extreme hydrological events in Morocco , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4722, 2021.

Accurate measurement of precipitation is very important for flood forecasting, hydrological modeling, and estimation of the water balance of any basin. The lack of a weather monitoring network is an obstacle to the accurate measurement of precipitation.

In most of the Moroccan High Atlas Mountains regions, ground observation stations are still unreliable and difficult to access due to several parameters, such as a large spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and ruggedness of topography, which lead to irregularity and scarcity of measuring stations. This area is characterized by arid and semi-arid climates where generally occurred a few rainy days but have experienced significant flash floods.

Consequently, floods are causing extended damages to the population and infrastructures every year. However, research on hydrological processes is limited due to the irregularity of the gauge station network and the large number of gaps frequently observed in the rainfall and runoff data acquired from the gauge stations. Remote sensing precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are a potential alternative to gauged precipitation data.

This study evaluates the performance of the two satellite products: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43V7) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V06) (SPPs) to observed rainfall, at different time scales (daily, monthly, and annual) from 1 September 2000 to 31 August 2017 over the Ghdat watershed, with different statistical indices and hydrological assessment, to evaluate the reliability of these (SPPs) data to reproduce rainfall events by implementing them in a hydrological model, to determine their ability to detect all types of rainfall events.

Daily, monthly, and annual rainfall measurements were validated using widely used statistical measures (CC, RMSE, MAE, Bias, Nash, POD, FAR, FBI and ETS).

The results showed that: (1) The correlation between satellite precipitation data and rainfall precipitation demonstrated a high correlation on all daily, monthly, and annual scales. (2) The product (TRMM 3B42V7) exhibits better quality in terms of correlation on the monthly and annual scale, while the (GPM IMERG V06) product shows a high correlation on the daily scale compared to the measurements of the gauges. (3) The (GPM IMERG V06) product has better performance regarding the precipitation detection capability, compared to the (TRMM 3B42V7) product which could detect only tiny precipitation events, but not able to capture moderate or strong precipitation events. (4) Flood events can be simulated with the hydrological model using both observed precipitation data and satellite data with the Nash – Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranging from 0.65 to 0.90.

According to the results of this study, we concluded that (TRMM 3B42V7) and (GPM IMERG V06) satellite precipitation products can be used for flood modeling and water resource management, particularly in the semi-arid and Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Benkirane, M., Laftouhi, N.-E., Khabba, S., and El Mansouri, B.: Assessment of GPM and TRMM Satellite Precipitation Products, and their application for Flood Simulations at Daily Scale in a sparsely gauged watershed;Case of Ghdat basin (High Atlas, Morocco)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4917, 2021.

EGU21-7540 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Lagrangian review of the origin of the humidity for the case of two extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region 

Sara Cloux, Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Vicente Perez-Muñuzuri

Extreme precipitation events are atmospheric phenomena causing floods that generate great economic and social losses. The Mediterranean region is characterized by a strong variability in time and space that favors the appearance of this type of phenomena. Therefore, determining the origin of humidity must be done.     

The UTrack-atmospheric-moisture model [1] is a Lagrangian tool to track atmospheric moisture flows forward in time using ERA-5 reanalysis weather data. The labeled moisture is released into the atmosphere in the form of evaporation. After determine the allocated moisture precipitated at each time, this model allows us to know the percentage of relative humidity that has precipitated for each of the labeled sources.  Here we present a comparison of these results with previous results obtained by other Lagrangian methods. 

[1] Tuinenburg, Obbe A., and Arie Staal. Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.5 (2020): 2419-2435. 

How to cite: Cloux, S., Insua-Costa, D., Miguez-Macho, G., and Perez-Muñuzuri, V.: Lagrangian review of the origin of the humidity for the case of two extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7540, 2021.

EGU21-9925 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1 | Highlight

Groundwater sustainability in a semiarid traditional irrigation piedmont supplied by high mountain streamflow

Houssne Bouimouass, Younes Fakir, Sarah Tweed, and Marc Leblanc

Piedmont areas are globally important hydrological systems as transitional zones between mountains (headwater basins) where water is produced and adjacent plains (basins floor) where water is consumed. In arid and semiarid areas, the water availability in piedmonts have made them adequate places for rural communities’ settlement and irrigation activities. The hydrochemical processes controlling groundwater chemistry in the piedmont areas might be influenced by the interaction with the mountain streamflow, the geology, the climate and the human activities. In this study we investigated the hydrochemistry of the groundwater in the piedmont of Ourika wadi that is coming from the High-Atlas of Marrakech Mountains (central Morocco). The HCO3-Ca-Na groundwater type, inherited form the streamflow, is the primary water facies in the area. It has its origin from carbonates dissolution and silicates withering in the High-Atlas mountains. In the irrigated area, the ion exchange processes are responsible of Ca and Mg enrichment. Currently, the groundwater salinity is low and the chemical quality is excellent thanks to the seasonal groundwater recharge from the mountain streamflow and to the practiced traditional agriculture that generally uses high amounts of irrigation and low amounts chemical fertilizers. However, major concerns about groundwater sustainability arise from two parameters. Firstly, the snowmelt-driven runoff supplying the groundwater recharge in piedmonts is in continuous decrease because of the snow cover reduction observed in the last decades and forecasted in the future under climate change, likely putting more pressure on groundwater resources. Secondly, due to the growing anthropogenic activities the traditional agriculture might change to intensive agriculture using more chemicals and inducing pollution.

How to cite: Bouimouass, H., Fakir, Y., Tweed, S., and Leblanc, M.: Groundwater sustainability in a semiarid traditional irrigation piedmont supplied by high mountain streamflow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9925, 2021.

EGU21-9023 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Hydrodynamic behaviour of a semiarid Mediterranean watershed, under changing hydrological conditions

Teresa Alejandra Palacios Cabrera, Javier Valdés Abellán, Antonio Jódar Abellán, and Rafael Alulema

ABSTRACT

The study analyzes the changes in the rainfall-runoff process as a result of land cover changes occurred between 1990-2018 in the Guadalest Reservoir basin with an area of 122.5 km2, using the model of the HEC-HMS model at daily scale and  to capture the complex hydrological dynamics based on GIS information . The purpose is to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the hydrological response in 12 sub-basins and the dynamics of land use/land cover changes for the years 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018. 

The findings reveal a change in the type of sclerophyll vegetation (forests of Quercus (calliprinos, ilex, rotundifolia, suber, etc.)from 81.56% in the 1990 initial  stage, to natural grasslands by 81.55% in the 2018 stage; a decrease in agricultural areas and their conversion into coniferous forests and natural grasslands by approximately 60% in the same period; if exists an increase of coniferous forest to the detriment of the agriculture, implies that the evapotranspiration  will increase and the run-off will decrease   with an increase in runoff in principle but as time goes by it decreases bringing as a consequence a deficit in water supply. The results of land use  change detection between the years 1990-2018 were corroborated with the values of the curve numbers obtained.

The cyclical and trend analysis of the historical series of precipitation allows evidencing a five-year cycle and a decreasing trend from 1984 to 2018.

The HEC-HMS model implementation at a daily scale and GIS-based tools have proven to be useful in achieving the study objectives. Within the HEC-HMS, the SCS Curve Number model and the Muskingum method were suitable for solving the rainfall-runoff conversion and flood propagation equations, respectively.

The researching work debeloped  is intended to identify the impact derived by the anthropic action in the change of land use and Its vegetable coverage, and how this may impact on the evotranspiration, surface run-off, and the post hydropical drainage of The Guadalest Reservoir which will use for the Integral Management of the Basin. These findings provide to the water management planners very useful information about the effects of flash floods, which have human lives cost in the ravine basin studied in recent years.

 

KEYWORDS

Land use change, evapotranspiration, runoff, HEC-HMS hydrological model, basin, Mediterranean

How to cite: Palacios Cabrera, T. A., Valdés Abellán, J., Jódar Abellán, A., and Alulema, R.: Hydrodynamic behaviour of a semiarid Mediterranean watershed, under changing hydrological conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9023, 2021.

In Mediterranean mountain regions, traditional irrigation systems still persist in areas where the  modernization approaches do not succeed in being operational. It is common that these systems alter the soil uses, vegetation distribution and hydrological natural regime. 

This is the case of the extensive network of irrigation ditches in the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range in southeastern Spain (an UNESCO  Reserve of the Biosphere, with areas as Natural and National Park), which originated in Muslim times, and is still operational in some areas. These ditches have contributed to maintaining local agricultural systems and populations in basins dominated by snow conditions, and they constitute a traditional regulation of water resources in the area. The network is made up of two types of irrigation ditches: “careo” and irrigation ditches. The first, the "careo", collects the meltwater and infiltrates it along its course, maintaining a high level of soil moisture and favouring deep percolation volumes that can be later consumed by the population through springs and natural fountains. The second, the irrigation ones, are used to transport water from the natural sources to the agricultural plots downstream the mountain area. In 2014, several irrigation ditches were restored in the Natural Park. This is a chance to further explore and quantify the role of this network in the hydrological budget on a local basis.  

The aim of this work is to evaluate to what extent the existence of these intermittent water networks affects the evolution of the surrounding vegetation. For this, one of the restored systems,  the Barjas Ditch in the village of Cañar, with a successful water circulation along its way, was selected from the increase of the soil water content in the ditch influence area and, indirectly a differential development of vegetation. Two analyses are performed using remote sensing information. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, which is a spectral index used to estimate the quantity, quality and development of vegetation that can therefore be used indirectly as an indicator of the state of soil moisture, was used as the indicator of evolution. For this purpose, a historical set of LandSat satellite images  (TM, ETM+ and OLI) has been used. On the one hand, a global analysis on the whole mountainous range was carried out, comparing NDVI patterns in areas affected and non-affected by the ditches. On the other hand, the restored  Barjas ditch is used to assess vegetation changes before and after the restoration.

How to cite: Aparicio, J., Pimentel, R., and Polo, M. J.: Environmental benefits of traditional irrigation ditches in the Sierra Nevada (Spain) ecosystem by analysing the spatial-temporal evolution of NDVI on different time scales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15870, 2021.

EGU21-5383 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Local sensitivity analysis of Satellite Monitoring of Irrigation software (SAMIR) over Semi-Arid climate of Morocco

Aicha Moumni, Alhousseine Diarra, and Abderrahman Lahrouni

Nowadays, the assessment of agricultural management is based mainly on the good management of water resources (i.e., to estimate the crops water consumption and provide their irrigation requirements). In this context, several agro-environmental models, (i.e., STICS, AQUACROP, TSEB, …) have been developed to assess the agricultural needs such as grain yield and/or irrigation demand prediction. These models are mainly based on the remote sensing data which contribute highly to the knowledge of some key-variables of crop models, in particular their time and space variations. The study area is the Haouz plain located in central Morocco. The climate of the plain is semi-arid continental type characterized by strong spatiotemporal irregular rains (mean annual precipitation up to 250 mm).The region relies mainly on the agricultural activities. Therefore, about 85% of available water is used for irrigated crops within the plain. The irrigated area is covered by 25% tree plantations and 75% annual crops. However, the annual crops extent depends strongly on the water availability during the season. Hence, for sustainable monitoring and optimal use of water resources (using physical modeling, satellite images and ground data), SAMIR software is developed in order to spatialize the irrigation water budget over Haouz plain. SAMIR (Simonneaux et al., 2009; Saadi et al., 2015; Tazekrit et al., 2018) is a tool for irrigation management based mainly on the use of remote sensing data. It estimates the crop evapotranspiration (ET) based on the FAO-56 model. This model requires three types of data: climatic variables for calculation of reference Evapotranspiration (ET0), land cover for computing crop coefficient Kc, and periodical phonological information for adjusting the Kc. SAMIR offers the possibility to calculate the ET of a large agricultural areas, with different land use/ land cover types, and subsequently deduce the necessary water irrigation for these areas. This model has been calibrated and validated over R3 perimeter (Diarra et al., 2017). In the present work, we studied the sensitivity (local sensibility analysis) of SAMIR software to the variations of each input parameter (i.e., ET0, precipitations, soil parameters, and irrigation configuration “real or automatic”). The simulations were made using the ground truth observations and irrigation dataset of the agricultural season of 2011/2012 over an irrigated area of Haouz plain. For the climatic variables, the obtained results showed that the effect of the ET0 is more significant compared to the effect of precipitations. It led to large shifts of the actual ET simulated by SAMIR compared to all tested parameters. For soil parameters, the sensitivity analysis illustrates that the effect is almost linear for all parameters. But the proportion of total available water, P, is the high sensitive parameter (Lenhart, et al., 2002). Finally, the comparison between the simulation of real evapotranspiration using automatic irrigation or real irrigation configuration offers an interesting result. The obtained ET values are similar for both configurations. Thus, this result offers the possibility of using only automatic irrigation configuration, in case of non-availability of the real irrigation.

How to cite: Moumni, A., Diarra, A., and Lahrouni, A.: Local sensitivity analysis of Satellite Monitoring of Irrigation software (SAMIR) over Semi-Arid climate of Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5383, 2021.

EGU21-5269 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Gradient Boosting Machine for Phosphorus Removal Prediction in Multi-Soil-Layering (MSL) system operated in a rural area 

Sofyan Sbahi, Naaila Ouazzani, Abderrahmane Lahrouni, Abdessamed Hejjaj, and Laila Mandi

The quality of effluents from wastewater treatment plants still challenging especially in underprivileged rural areas where water resources are mostly affected by pollution, depletion and excessive exploitation. Thus, the prediction of phosphorus removal is one of the most important tasks in the management of wastewater effluent. Predictive model accuracy is crucial for safe reuse of treated water for public health and the environment. However, linear models that use a high dimensional dataset may be unable to build accurate and interpretable models. To address this complexity, the current study evaluates the effect of hydraulic retention time (HRT) on the removal of orthophosphates (PO4–P) and total phosphorus (TP) by the multi-soil-layering (MSL) eco-friendly technology. In addition, it attempts to predict this removal from domestic wastewater using a combined approach based on feature selection technique and gradient boosting machine algorithm (GBM). Sixteen physicochemical and bacterial indicators were monitored for a one-year period. The results show that the HRT impact significantly (p < 0.01) the removal of phosphorus content by the MSL system. The HRT, pH, PO4–P and TP were suggested relevant for predicting the removal of TP, while HRT and PO4–P were sufficient for predicting the removal rate of PO4–P. The analysis of accuracy using the validation dataset demonstrates that GBM models have high credibility as they achieve an R² > 0.92, while the analysis of sensitivity reveals that the HRT was the most important factor affecting phosphorus removal in the MSL system. In addition, the modeling results show that the GBM model has proven to be useful for predicting pollutant removal in the MSL technology and investigating its behavior.

 

How to cite: Sbahi, S., Ouazzani, N., Lahrouni, A., Hejjaj, A., and Mandi, L.: Gradient Boosting Machine for Phosphorus Removal Prediction in Multi-Soil-Layering (MSL) system operated in a rural area , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5269, 2021.

EGU21-10570 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1 | Highlight

Future water-related risks and management options in the Mediterranean basin 

Marianela Fader, Carlo Giupponi, Selmin Burak, Hamouda Dakhlaoui, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Manfred A. Lange, María Carmen Llasat, David Pulido-Velazquez, Alberto Sanz-Cobeña, Manolis Grillakis, Rachid Mrabet, David Saurí, Robert Savé, Mladen Todorovic, Yves Tramblay, and Veronika Zwirglmaier

The presentation will summarize the main findings of the chapter “Water”[1] of the report “Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future”. This report was published in November 2020 and prepared by 190 scientists from 25 countries, who belong to the scientific network “Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change”.

Water resources in the Mediterranean are scarce, unevenly distributed and often mismatching human and environmental needs. Approx. 180 million people in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries suffer from water scarcity (<1000 m3 capita-1 yr-1). The main water use is for agriculture, and more specifically on the southern and eastern rim. Water demand for both tourism and agriculture peak in summer, potentially enhancing conflicts in the future. Municipal water use is particularly constrained in the south and will likely be exacerbated in the future by demographic and migration phenomena. Northern countries face additional risks in flood prone areas where urban settlements are rapidly increasing.

Climate change, in combination with demographic and socio-economic developments, has mainly negative consequences for the water cycle in the Mediterranean Basin, including reduced runoff and groundwater recharge, increased crop water requirements, increased conflicts among users, and increased risk of overexploitation and degradation. These impacts will be particularly severe for global warming higher than 2°C.

Adequate water supply and demand management offers some options to cope with risks. Technical solutions are available for improving water use efficiency and productivity, and increasing reuse. Seawater desalination is increasingly used as adaptation measure to reduce (potable) water scarcity in dry Mediterranean countries, despite known drawbacks in terms of environmental impacts and energy requirements. Promising solar technologies are under development, potentially reducing emissions and costs. Reuse of wastewater is a solution for agriculture and industrial activities but also recharge of aquifers. Inter-basin transfers may lead to controversies and conflicts. Construction of dams contributes to the reduction of water and energy scarcities, but with trade-offs in terms of social and environmental impacts.

Overall, water demand management, which increases water use efficiency and reduces water losses, is crucial for water governance for a sustainable development. Maintaining Mediterranean diet or coming back to it on the basis of locally produced foods and reducing food wastes may save water but also carbon emissions while having nutritional and health benefits.


[1] Fader M., Giupponi C., Burak S., Dakhlaoui H., Koutroulis A., Lange M.A., Llasat M.C., Pulido-Velazquez D., Sanz-Cobeña A. (2020): Water. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 57pp, in press. Download

How to cite: Fader, M., Giupponi, C., Burak, S., Dakhlaoui, H., Koutroulis, A., Lange, M. A., Llasat, M. C., Pulido-Velazquez, D., Sanz-Cobeña, A., Grillakis, M., Mrabet, R., Saurí, D., Savé, R., Todorovic, M., Tramblay, Y., and Zwirglmaier, V.: Future water-related risks and management options in the Mediterranean basin , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10570, 2021.

EGU21-2223 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1 | Highlight

Hydrological effects of climate and land use changes in regulated vs. unregulated headwaters of Southern Calabria  

Demetrio Antonio Zema, Giuseppe Bombino, Bruno Gianmarco Carrà, Daniela D'agostino, Pietro Denisi, Antonino Labate, Antonio Alberto Martinez Salvador, Pedro Perez Cutillas, Santo Marcello Zimbone, and Carmelo Conesa Garcia

Surface runoff rates in torrents are driven by land use and climate changes. Moreover, the effects of control works, such as the check dams, can modify these rates. In the Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds (e.g., in Southern Italy and Spain), this forcing may sum to local factors, such as steep slopes, small drainage areas and heavy and short-duration rainstorms. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the hydrological effects of each action (presence of check dam, land use changes and future climate forcing), in order to control flash floods, soil erosion and landslides at the watershed scale. To this aim, this study evaluates the annual runoff rates in two headwaters of Southern Italy, mainly forested and agricultural, using a modeling approach. More specifically, the well-known Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to Vacale (12.5 sq. km) torrent, regulated by check dams built in ‘1950-1960, and Serra torrent (13.7 sq. km), not regulated. Both sub-watersheds experienced an increase in forest cover up to 70%, while the agricultural land decreased by about 30% of the total area in the period after the construction of the control works until now. Previously, the model was calibrated in a third torrent (Duverso, 12.5 sq. km, gauged for runoff measurements), with the same climatic and geomorphological characteristics, using the automatic calibration by the SWATCUP program. After calibration, SWAT simulated the hydrological response under different land uses (forest, pasture and bare soil, the latter simulating total deforestation) and climate change scenarios (applying a Global Circulation Model, under 2.6 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways) throughout the next 80 years. The results of this modeling experience showed that: (i) the presence of check dams noticeably reduced the hydrological response of the regulated headwater compared to the torrent without check dams; (ii) the vegetal cover of the forestland has been the most important factor in mitigating the surface runoff rate in comparison to the other land uses; (iii) under the future climate change scenarios, the surface runoff will increase with increasing mean temperatures and precipitation intensity. The model outputs help supporting a better understanding on the impacts of control works as well as land use and climate changes on the runoff generation capacity in Mediterranean torrents. These indications are useful to watershed managers in the adoption of the most effective strategy to mitigate flash flood hazards and heavy erosion risks in similar environmental contexts. 

Acknowledgement: This research was funded by ERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities-State Research Agency (AEI) /Project CGL2017-84625-C2-1-R; State Program for Research, Development and Innovation Focused on the Challenges of Society.

 

How to cite: Zema, D. A., Bombino, G., Carrà, B. G., D'agostino, D., Denisi, P., Labate, A., Martinez Salvador, A. A., Perez Cutillas, P., Zimbone, S. M., and Conesa Garcia, C.: Hydrological effects of climate and land use changes in regulated vs. unregulated headwaters of Southern Calabria  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2223, 2021.

EGU21-6043 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1 | Highlight

Hydrological response of LULC and climate change in Mediterranean basin: application to the  Siliana catchment in Tunisia

Imen EL Ghoul, Haykel Sellami, Kaoutar Mounir, Slaheddine Khlifi, and Marnik Vanclooster

Land use/ Land cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this study, combined effects of changes in climate and LULC on hydrological processes are investigated by comparing baseline period (2000-2013) to future conditions (2030-2070) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model in the Siliana catchment in Tunisia.

The LULC future scenarios are modelled using the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain while climate change scenarios were derived from the regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX-Europe). The (CDF) matching approach with observed precipitation and temperature records is used for bias correction. Subsequently, bias corrected climate projections and LULC future scenarios are fed in the SWAT model to assess changes in catchment hydrology based on a set of hydrological indicators (e.g. monthly discharge and total water availability). Prediction uncertainty related to changes in LULC, climate conditions and SWAT model parameter are also assessed.

A significant decrease in pasture and an increase in irrigated lands will likely shape the future LULC in comparison to the baseline conditions. However, these changes will be combined by a warmer and drier climate and hydrological conditions in the future in the Siliana catchment. By considering only changes in LULC in the reference period, there was a slight reduction in the surface runoff and total available water in the catchment. 

KEYWORDS: hydrologic response; land use change; climate change; uncertainty; Mediterranean catchment; SWAT model; CA-Markov

How to cite: EL Ghoul, I., Sellami, H., Mounir, K., Khlifi, S., and Vanclooster, M.: Hydrological response of LULC and climate change in Mediterranean basin: application to the  Siliana catchment in Tunisia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6043, 2021.

EGU21-6536 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

High-resolution futuristic climate forcing over semi-arid catchments. Case of the Tensift (Morocco)

Ahmed Moucha, Lahoucine Hanich, Yves Tramblay, Amina Saadi, Simon Gascoin, Eric Martin, Michel Lepage, Camille Szczypta, and Lionel Jarlan

In the south Mediterranean catchments, most of the available water resources are used to produce hydro-electric energy, for drinking water as well as for irrigated agriculture located downstream in the surrounding plains. This water Tower role is today threatened by the increase in water needs relative to the growth of the population and its standard of living, by the intensification of irrigated agriculture and by climate change. The south Mediterranean region is now well known as a “hot-spot” for the latter and there is reasonable evidence showing that mountainous region should face enhanced warming compared to the surrounding plains in the future. In this context, the development of a high-resolution futuristic climate forcing on the Tensift catchments. Based on the high-resolution SAFRAN reanalysis developed in the study presented above. is very important for the study of the climate, with a trend for the 2041-2060 horizon. For this purpose, we used future climate scenarios provided by the Euro-CORDEX program evaluated over the region. To achieve this objective, two RCP runs at 12 km resolution are downscaled using the quantile-quantile approach based on temperature and precipitation acquired at the Marrakech station in the plain and at the Oukaimeden station located at an altitude of 2687m in the High Atlas. It is shown that higher warming is expected on the mountainous region than in the plain station (2.8°C versus 2.3°C for the maximum temperature and 2.8° versus 2° for the minimum temperature; scenario RCP8.5 for 2041-2060). The higher warming on the minimum temperature may drastically impact the snow/rain partition in the high Atlas. Based on these disaggregated climate scenarios, future spatialized forcing are built from the correction functions obtained at the two above-mentioned plain and mountain stations and the SAFRAN re-analysis. The mountainous area is expected to face a higher increase of air temperature than in the plain, reaching +2.5°C for RCP8.5 and +1.71°C for RCP4.5 over 2041-2060. This warming will be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation (-16% for RCP8.5). this future spatialized data set is to be used within impact studies, in particular concerning water resources.

How to cite: Moucha, A., Hanich, L., Tramblay, Y., Saadi, A., Gascoin, S., Martin, E., Lepage, M., Szczypta, C., and Jarlan, L.: High-resolution futuristic climate forcing over semi-arid catchments. Case of the Tensift (Morocco), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6536, 2021.

EGU21-7132 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Impact of climate change on superficial water resources in the South of France: statistical modelling over historical and future scenario periods

Camille Labrousse, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Wolfgang Ludwig, and Guillaume Lacquement

In the Mediterranean, climate change and human pressures are expected to significantly impact surface water resources. We studied these impacts on the water discharge of six coastal drainage basins of the Gulf of Lions in southern France over the sixty-years period 1959-2018. Our approach was based on statistical analyses of hydrological, climate, land use and water management data. Results suggested that the annual water discharge of the six rivers studied can be predicted with high confidence by only two climatic indices, exclusively calculated from monthly temperature and precipitation data. This is a strong argument that climate is clearly the dominant driver of water discharge trends in the study region. These models also easily allow individual testing of the role of temperatures and precipitations on the evolution of annual water discharge. The latter decreased with about 30-45% in the study catchments over the 1959-2018 period and 25% can be attributed solely to the annual temperatures increase. Considering future projections of different climate models under a RCP 8.5 scenario, which depicts the strongest climatic changes, the annual water discharge could still decrease about 49-87% during the 2006-2100 period. For all models, we furthermore examined the relationships between the observed and simulated climatologies, our climatic indices and the large scale teleconnection patterns in order to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in the predicted water discharge series.

How to cite: Labrousse, C., Pinel, S., Sadaoui, M., Ludwig, W., and Lacquement, G.: Impact of climate change on superficial water resources in the South of France: statistical modelling over historical and future scenario periods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7132, 2021.

EGU21-6545 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Assessing the water resources vulnerability of Ouergha catchment under climate change projection

Kaoutar Mounir, Haykel Sellami, Imen El Ghoul, Abdessalam El Khanchoufi, and Isabelle La Jeunesse

Climate change scenarios predict water scarcity in Mediterranean region, particularly in areas that are exposed to weather related disasters (drought, flood...) (IPCC, 2014). These changes will most likely impact food security by altering the hydrological cycle and water availability. Considering that water is the economic engine of the Mediterranean countries that rely especially on agricultural production, several studies have been focused on understanding and quantifying the climate change effects on hydrological regime. In addition, the complexity of these impacts can be due also to a bad resources management that can hinder the countries’ development (Marin M., 2020). To study the hydrological function of the Ouergha watershed, the SWAT model was used to simulate daily runoff response for the period 1997-2017, including three years (1993-1997) for the warming-up of the model. Calibration and validation of the model were applied for the period 1997-2017 using the SUFI-2 algorithm, and the simulation estimates the water flows of the Ouergha basin in a monthly time step. The water balance indicates a predominance of evaporation losses accounting for 41% of total rainfall. Runoff represents 8% of precipitation while lateral flow is 7%. The remainder is distributed between the 5% deep aquifer recharge and percolation, in addition to the flow to the river which represents about 39%. The Swat model is considered as suitable tool for the management of water resources even though under changing climatic conditions, it’s prone to errors and uncertainties that needs to be assessed to make full benefits from this model challenging (Sellami H., 2014).To analyze these uncertainties a modelling approach based on the combination of hydrological model and a set of high resolution CORDEX climate models has been developed. The results are considered as a decision-making tool for local and regional actors.

References :

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

Marin M., C. L. (2020). Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using SWAT: A review. Environmental Research,. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109330.

Sellami H., L. J. (2014). France), Uncertainty analysis in model parameters regionalization: a case study involving the SWAT model in Mediterranean catchments (Southern. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 2393–2413. doi:doi:10.5194/hess-18-2393-201.

How to cite: Mounir, K., Sellami, H., El Ghoul, I., El Khanchoufi, A., and La Jeunesse, I.: Assessing the water resources vulnerability of Ouergha catchment under climate change projection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6545, 2021.

EGU21-422 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Soil moisture estimation over cereals fields using l-band alos2 data (merguellil case – KAIROUAN)

Emna Ayari, Zeineb Kassouk, Zohra Lili Chabaane, Safa Bousbih, and Mehrez Zribi

Soil moisture is a key component for water resources management especially for irrigation needs estimation. We analyze in the present study, the potential of L-band data, acquired by (Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2) ALOS-2, to retrieve soil moisture over bare soils and cereal fields located in semi-arid area in the Kairouan plain.

In this context, we evaluate radar signal sensitivity to roughness, soil moisture and vegetation biophysical parameters. Based on multi-incidence radar data (28°, 32.5° and 36°), high correlations characterize relationships between backscattering coefficients in dual-polarization (HH and HV) and root mean square of heights (Hrms) and Zs, parameters, Sensitivity of radar data to soil moisture was discussed for three classes of NDVI (less than 0.25 for bare soils and dispersed vegetation, between 0.25 and 0.5 for medium vegetation and greater than 0.5 for dense cereals). With vegetation development, where NDVI values are higher than 0.25, SAR signal remains sensitive to soil moisture in HH pol. This sensitivity to moisture disappears, in HV pol for dense vegetation. For covered fields, L-band signal is very sensitive to Vegetation Water Content (VWC), with R² values ranging between 0.76 and 0.61 in HH and HV polarization respectively.

Simulating signal behavior is carried out through various models over bare soils and covered cereal fields. Over bare soils, proposed empirical expressions, modified versions of Integral Equation Model (IEM-B) and Dubois models (Dubois-B) are evaluated, generally for HH and HV polarizations. Best consistency is observed between real data and IEM-B backscattering simulations in HH polarization. More discrepancies between real and modelled data are observed in HV polarization.

Furthermore, to simulate L-band signal behavior over covered fields, the inversion of Water Cloud Model (WCM) coupled to different bare soil models is realized through direct equations and Look-up tables. Two options of WCM, are tested (with and without soil-vegetation interaction scattering term). For the first option, results highlight the good performance of IEM-B coupled to WCM in HH polarization with RMSE value between estimated and in situ moisture measurements equal to 4.87 vol.%. By adding soil – cereal interaction term in the second option of WCM, results reveal a stable accuracy in HH polarization and an important improvement of soil moisture estimations in HV polarization, with RMSE values are ranging between 6 and 7 vol.%.

How to cite: Ayari, E., Kassouk, Z., Lili Chabaane, Z., Bousbih, S., and Zribi, M.: Soil moisture estimation over cereals fields using l-band alos2 data (merguellil case – KAIROUAN), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-422, 2021.

EGU21-10898 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Combining remote sensing and hydrological information for improving hydrological characterization of dehesas in Mediterranean mountain areas: a study case in Cardeña-Montoro Natural Park (Spain) 

Rafael Pimentel, Pedro Torralbo, Javier Aparicio, María José Pérez-Palazón, Ana Andreu, María Patrocinio González-Dugo, and María José Polo

Mediterranean mountain areas are especially vulnerable to changes. Climatic trends observed in the last decades point out to an increasing number of extreme events (i.e., number of heat waves and droughts) and consequently, a direct alteration of the hydrological states of their associated ecosystems. The savanna type ecosystem called dehesa is one of them. This system is the result of a long-term co-evolution of indigenous ecosystems and human settlement in a sustainable balance, with high relevance from both the environmental (biodiversity) and socioeconomic (livestock farming, including Iberian pork food industry) point of view. Dehesa systems have a complex vegetation cover structure, where isolated trees, mainly holm oak, cork oak and oak, Mediterranean shrubs, and pastures coexist. Different problems have arisen in dehesa during last years, an example of them are seca episodes, a disease of oak trees that results in drying and final death. This condition is caused by a fungus, but very likely triggered by external hydrological related conditions like air temperature and soil water content.  Remote sensing techniques have been widely used as the best alternative to monitor vegetation patterns over these areas. However, the presence of clouds and the fixed spatiotemporal resolution of these sensors constitute a limitation in more local studies.

This work proposes the combined use of remote sensing by both terrestrial photography and satelital sensors, and hydrometeorological information as data sources for improving the hydrological characterization of vegetation in dehesa areas. The study was carried out in the Santa Clotilde experimental area, within the Cardeña-Montoro Natural Park (southern Spain). Three years of local sub-daily terrestrial photography and hydrometeorological information allowed us to define different hydrometeorological/ecohydrological indicators that are representative of key vegetation states. This local information is linked with vegetation indexes derived from high spatial resolution satellite information (i.e., Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI (30 m x 30 m) and Sentinel-2 (10 m x 10 m) and distributed meteorological variables to extend the results from the local to the watershed scale. The promising results will be used in a short future as the basis of an advanced monitoring service where meteorological seasonal forecast information could be used to derive key indicators and help in a priori diagnosis of the system facilitating decisions making.

This work has been funded by project SIERRA Seguimiento hIdrológico de la vEgetación en montaña mediteRránea mediante fusión de sensores Remotos en Andalucía), with the economic collaboration of the European Funding for Rural Development (FEDER) and the Office for Economy, Knowledge, Enterprises and University of the Andalusian Regional Government.

How to cite: Pimentel, R., Torralbo, P., Aparicio, J., Pérez-Palazón, M. J., Andreu, A., González-Dugo, M. P., and Polo, M. J.: Combining remote sensing and hydrological information for improving hydrological characterization of dehesas in Mediterranean mountain areas: a study case in Cardeña-Montoro Natural Park (Spain) , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10898, 2021.

EGU21-14594 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Surface soil moisture data assimilation for irrigation amounts and timing estimation in semi-arid regions

Nadia Ouaadi, Lionel Jarlan, Saïd Khabba, Jamal Ezzahar, and Olivier Merlin

Irrigation is the largest consumer of water in the world, with more than 70% of the world's fresh water dedicated to agriculture. In this context, we developed and evaluated a new method to predict daily to seasonal irrigation timing and amounts at the field scale using surface soil moisture (SSM) data assimilated into a simple  land surface model through a particle filter technique. The method is first tested using in situ SSM before using SSM products retrieved from Sentinel-1. Data collected on different wheat fields grown  in Morocco, for both flood and drip irrigation techniques, are used to assess the performance of the proposed method. With in situ data, the results are good. Seasonal amounts are retrieved with R > 0.98, RMSE <42 mm and bias<2 mm. Likewise, a good agreement is observed at the daily scale for flood irrigation where more than 70% of the irrigation events are detected with a time difference from actual irrigation events shorter than 4 days, when assimilating SSM observation every 6 days to mimics Sentinel-1 revisit time. Over the drip irrigated fields, the statistical metrics are R = 0.70, RMSE =28.5 mm and bias= -0.24 mm for irrigation amounts cumulated over 15 days. The approach is then evaluated using SSM products derived from Sentinel-1 data; statistical metrics are R= 0.64, RMSE= 28.78 mm and bias = 1.99 mm for irrigation amounts cumulated over 15 days. In addition to irrigated fields, the applicationof the developed methodover rainfed fieldsdid not detect any irrigation. This study opens perspectives for the regional retrieval of irrigation amounts and timing at the field scale and for mapping irrigated/non irrigated areas.

How to cite: Ouaadi, N., Jarlan, L., Khabba, S., Ezzahar, J., and Merlin, O.: Surface soil moisture data assimilation for irrigation amounts and timing estimation in semi-arid regions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14594, 2021.

EGU21-12780 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Monitoring of an irrigated olive orchard using C-band backscattering coefficient and interferometric coherence at high temporal frequency: preliminary results

Adnane Chakir, pierre-louis frison, Said khabba, jamal ezzahar, ludovic villard, nadia ouaadi, valerie ledantec, pascal fanise, and lionel jarlan

In the south Mediterranean region already facing water scarcity, up to 80% of available water is used by irrigated agriculture. This work focuses on the analysis of the C-band response of a tree crop with in situ data acquired with a time step of 15 mns in the final objective of developing water stress detection approaches based on radar data. Focus is put on the daily cycle of the radar-backscattering coefficient and of the interferometric coherence. The site is located in the Chichaoua region (Morocco) was equipped in May 2019 with 6 C-band radar antennas installed on a 20 m tower. In parallel, automatic acquisitions at a half hourly time step of latent and sensible heat fluxes, sapflow, soil moisture and temperature profile together with manual  measurements of LAI, soil roughness and above ground biomass every 15 days were carried out. The preliminary results show a strong daily cycle of the interferometric coherence with a significant drop of the coherence during daytime. The coherence loss at dawn occurred concurrently with the start of the sapflow while minimum values were observed in the afternoon when wind speed is maximum. A significant daily cycle of the backscattering coefficient is also prominent. The amplitude of the daily cycle decreased from the dormancy period in winter from up to 2dB to less than 1dB in summer when physiologic activity of the trees is at its maximum. These first results open perspectives for the monitoring of the hydric status of crops within the frame of future radar missions in geostationary orbit.

How to cite: Chakir, A., frison, P., khabba, S., ezzahar, J., villard, L., ouaadi, N., ledantec, V., fanise, P., and jarlan, L.: Monitoring of an irrigated olive orchard using C-band backscattering coefficient and interferometric coherence at high temporal frequency: preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12780, 2021.

EGU21-14849 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.1

Analysis of diurnal cycles of interferometric coherence and backscattering coefficient measured on an irrigated wheat field in Morocco

Nadia Ouaadi, Ludovic Villard, Jamal Ezzahar, Pierre-louis Frison, Saïd Khabba, Adnane Chakir, Salah Er-raki, and Lionel Jarlan

C-band radar observations have shown a high sensitivity to the water status of vegetation, including forests and crops. Several studies conducted mainly on forests have observed daily changes of the backscattering coefficients between ascending and descending orbits and have suggested that these differences are related to the diurnal cycle of vegetation water content. Likewise, the water movement within annual crops could be associated to change of the phase centre locations leading to a daily cycle of the interferometric coherence as well that has already been observed on tropical forest using C-band in situ acquisitions. In this context, an experimental setup composed of 4C-band antennas targeting an irrigated wheat field was installed at the top of a 20 m tower near Chichaoua (Morocco) from January to June 2020. The collected data includes measurements of the backscattering coefficient at both cross- and parallel polarizations and the interferometric coherence with a 15 mns time step. The field is also equipped with an eddy-correlation station for half hourly measurements of convective fluxes, soil moisture and temperature profiles. Simultaneously, measurement of above-ground biomass, leaf area index, canopy height and surface roughness are also carried out every 15-daysduring the agricultural season.  The preliminary results of the experiment reveal the existence of strong correlation between the daily evolution of interferometric coherence and the physiological activity of wheat at dawn while the changes observed in the afternoon are ratherrelated to the wind peaks. For the backscattering coefficient, a good agreement is observed between the evolution of its daily average and the evolution of evapotranspiration. These open insights for the monitoring of the crops water status using radar dataacquired at sub-daily timescale.

How to cite: Ouaadi, N., Villard, L., Ezzahar, J., Frison, P., Khabba, S., Chakir, A., Er-raki, S., and Jarlan, L.: Analysis of diurnal cycles of interferometric coherence and backscattering coefficient measured on an irrigated wheat field in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14849, 2021.

HS2.1.2 – Advances in African hydrology and climate: modelling, water management, environmental and food security

EGU21-101 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2 | Highlight

Projecting conflict risk following the Shared Socioeconomic pathways: what role for water stress and climate?

Sophie de Bruin, Jannis Hoch, Nina von Uexkull, Halvard Buhaug, and Nico Wanders

The socioeconomic impacts of changes in climate-related and hydrology-related factors are increasingly acknowledged to affect the on-set of violent conflict. Full consensus upon the general mechanisms linking these factors with conflict is, however, still limited. The absence of full understanding of the non-linearities between all components and the lack of sufficient data make it therefore hard to address violent conflict risk on the long-term. 

Although it is neither desirable nor feasible to make exact predictions, projections are a viable means to provide insights into potential future conflict risks and uncertainties thereof. Hence, making different projections is a legitimate way to deal with and understand these uncertainties, since the construction of diverse scenarios delivers insights into possible realizations of the future.  

Through machine learning techniques, we (re)assess the major drivers of conflict for the current situation in Africa, which are then applied to project the regions-at-risk following different scenarios. The model shows to accurately reproduce observed historic patterns leading to a high ROC score of 0.91. We show that socio-economic factors are most dominant when projecting conflicts over the African continent. The projections show that there is an overall reduction in conflict risk as a result of increased economic welfare that offsets the adverse impacts of climate change and hydrologic variables. It must be noted, however, that these projections are based on current relations. In case the relations of drivers and conflict change in the future, the resulting regions-at-risk may change too.   By identifying the most prominent drivers, conflict risk mitigation measures can be tuned more accurately to reduce the direct and indirect consequences of climate change on the population in Africa. As new and improved data becomes available, the model can be updated for more robust projections of conflict risk in Africa under climate change.

How to cite: de Bruin, S., Hoch, J., von Uexkull, N., Buhaug, H., and Wanders, N.: Projecting conflict risk following the Shared Socioeconomic pathways: what role for water stress and climate?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-101, 2021.

EGU21-2901 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

A flexible method for determining decorrelation ranges in rainfall applied to Ghana

Jennifer Israelsson, Emily Black, Cláudia Neves, Francis Feehi Torgbor, Helen Greatrex, Michael Tanu, and Patrick Nii Lante Lamptey

The spatial structure of rainfall events over west Africa is not very well understood, and a major limitation for improving this understanding is the generally sparse rain gauge network. This lack of spatial knowledge makes it difficult to describe the state between the rain gauges, something that is important if one wants to determine which locations are likely to have received rainfall and not. Earlier work on estimating correlation structures has been limited by the long distances between rain gauges, which often has been longer than the actual correlation range. 

In this talk, we will describe a simple and easily adapted method developed for calculating the decorrelation range in daily rainfall. Thanks to a new, dense daily rain gauge data set from Ghana Met agency, the spatial structure of rainfall for the different phases of the West African monsoon has been investigated. Previous studies have only considered a general decorrelation range, ignoring rainfall intensity as a factor when determining the rainfall extent. For the results presented in this talk, the decorrelation range has been estimated for 4 different rainfall intensities to explore the difference between low and high intensity events. This is analysed separately for each month at a fine spatial scale. Results on the anisotropic, i.e correlation changing with direction, pattern at the subweekly and local scale for several aggregation periods will also be presented.

It is found that the spatial correlation structure of rainfall vary greatly with the intensity of the rainfall event and the phase of the monsoon. In particular, it was determined that the intensity rather than the time of the year had the largest influence at the local scale. The westward propagation of convective systems, a well known phenomena over weekly to monthly time scales, was detected even at short aggregation periods.

How to cite: Israelsson, J., Black, E., Neves, C., Torgbor, F. F., Greatrex, H., Tanu, M., and Lamptey, P. N. L.: A flexible method for determining decorrelation ranges in rainfall applied to Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2901, 2021.

EGU21-3537 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Do field observations agree with satellite-based evaporation products in the Miombo Woodland of Southern Africa?

Henry Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Banda Kawawa, Bart Schilperoort, Imasiku Nyambe, and Hubert H.G. savenije

Evaporation is a major constraining factor of water availability at the land surface which makes its assessment a highly significant prerequisite for application in hydrological, agricultural, climate studies and many other disciplines at various scales. However, its importance and calculation procedures have largely been crafted around and often limited to crop productivity. The overarching consequence of this is inaccurate estimates of evaporation for other land surfaces and particularly for forest systems. Due to limited field evaporation observations attention has been focused on the application of satellite-based products. However, in the case of Africa, and the Miombo ecosystem in particular, the number of flux towers is extremely limited (very few if any) which makes it extremely difficult to evaluate available satellite-based evaporation products. In this study we used the energy balance Bowen ratio approach to estimate field evaporation in a dense Miombo Woodland which we then used to evaluate four energy balance evaporation models. The models evaluated included the MOD16, SEBS, SSEBop and WaPOR. Furthermore, cluster analysis was used to assess the similarity of the models in simulating evaporation. The results show that at daily and dekadal scale the simulated evaporation by the four models significantly varied from field evaporation observations. However, less variations were observed at monthly scale.  Furthermore, all four models overestimated evaporation during the dry season (June-September) with RMSE ranges between 0.21 – 0.38 mm.day-1 and 6.64 - 9.91 mm.month-1. Based on the RMSE and biases the MOD16 (RMSE = 6.64 mm.month-1; Bias = 2.04 mm.month-1), SEBS (RMSE = 8.69 mm.month-1; Bias = 5.72 mm.month-1) and WaPOR (RMSE = 7.44 mm.month-1; Bias = 6.67 mm.month-1) ranked higher than the SSEBop (RMSE = 9.91 mm.month-1; Bias = 9.84 mm.month-1) in simulating evaporation in the Miombo Woodland. Three clusters were observed with the SEBS and WaPOR grouped together indicating their close similarity in simulating evaporation in the Miombo ecosystem while the MOD16 and SSEBop were each grouped separately. Results of this study could aid the interpretation of these evaporation models in Miombo Woodland covered basins such as the Zambezi River Basin in Southern Africa. This could help in monitoring basin water availability and ecosystem reactions and feedbacks to climate change and anthropogenic impacts.

How to cite: Zimba, H., Coenders-Gerrits, M., Kawawa, B., Schilperoort, B., Nyambe, I., and H.G. savenije, H.: Do field observations agree with satellite-based evaporation products in the Miombo Woodland of Southern Africa?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3537, 2021.

EGU21-6340 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Hyper-resolution hydrological modelling to assess water and food security in Malawi

Daniela Anghileri, Noemi Vergopolan, Solomon Gebrechorkos, and Justin Sheffield

Agriculture is a key sector in fighting hunger in Sub Saharan Africa. Almost 95% of the agriculture in Africa is rain-fed and smallholder farmers play a crucial role as they produce most of the food consumed by local populations. These characteristics make the SSA agricultural landscape very diverse and particularly vulnerable to weather extremes. The ability of forecasting hydrological variability has increased in recent years due to advancements in the understanding of hydro-climatic processes, growing availability of high-resolution remote sensing datasets, and the increase of computational power, which has promoted the development of high-quality computer-based hydrological models. When adopted in data scarce regions, these models provide new insight into the hydrological budget and in characterizing the hydrological variability of these areas. In this work, we combine the hyper-resolution hydrological model HydroBlocks and the river routing model RAPID to simulate the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the land surface processes in Malawi at 30 m resolution. The model simulations show high variability of the hydrological variables, particularly soil moisture, across the country. We use these results to further analyse water and food security indicators in the transboundary catchment of Lake Chilwa shared between Malawi and Mozambique. The start and duration of the maize cropping season and the lake level show a large interannual variability which allow us to quantify the weather-related vulnerability of the local smallholder farming system. This work is part of the research activities of the UKRI-GCRF funded project “Building research capacity for sustainable water and food security in drylands of sub-Saharan Africa” (BRECcIA - http://www.gcrf-breccia.com/).

How to cite: Anghileri, D., Vergopolan, N., Gebrechorkos, S., and Sheffield, J.: Hyper-resolution hydrological modelling to assess water and food security in Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6340, 2021.

EGU21-7585 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Assessing Floods and Droughts direct impacts in sub-Saharan Africa by using a regional hydrologic model: a fully probabilistic approach

Gabellani Simone, Roberto Rudari, and Lauro Rossi and the CIMA, VU and WUR Team

Over the last few decades, disasters resulting from natural hazards have often derailed hard-earned development progress. This is especially true in developing countries such as in sub-Saharan Africa which was the object of this study. The majority of disasters in Africa are hydro-meteorological in origin, with droughts affecting the largest number of people and floods occurring frequently along major river systems and in many urban areas. Disasters, however, can be significantly minimised with rigorous understanding of the risk, obtained using scientific risk modelling and through effective institutional and community prevention, mitigation and preparedness. Specifically, this study focuses on the risk assessment due to both Floods and Droughts in 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study describes the crucial role of a physically based regional hydrologic model as a common engine to assess drought and flood hazard and their subsequent risk implications on people and economy. The hydrologic simulations are at the basis of the fully probabilistic approach adopted in the study. The study develops risk estimates in both current and future climate conditions, using RCP8.5 projections, paired with socio economic development (i.e., considering population and GDP growth). Results are discussed in terms of impacts on population and different key sectors of the African economy, such as agriculture and infrastructure, while especially focusing on the direct economic losses caused by flood and drought disasters and on the  food security implications of drought disasters.

How to cite: Simone, G., Rudari, R., and Rossi, L. and the CIMA, VU and WUR Team: Assessing Floods and Droughts direct impacts in sub-Saharan Africa by using a regional hydrologic model: a fully probabilistic approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7585, 2021.

Lake water balance studies in Ethiopia are commonly conducted for natural conditions without considering the impact of water abstraction. However, hydrological changes are a function of changes caused by human interventions as much as through natural processes. The Lake Tana sub-basin is one of the important basins in Ethiopia as the source of the Blue Nile river and supporter of various livelihoods including considerable number of small-scale farmers. With Ethiopia’s ambitious plan to expand irrigation at different scales to feed the growing population, the Lake Tana sub-basin is one of the selected areas by the federal government for medium scale irrigation. Moreover, the basin is experiencing booming small-scale irrigation users due to initiations by local governments, NGOs and individual farmers. Small-scale community managed irrigation schemes and farmer-led irrigations schemes are common in the basin. While communities are expected to benefit from the expanding irrigation use, there is limited information on how this irrigation expansion impacts the water balance of the sub-basin.

In this study the area under small-scale irrigation is estimated through inventory survey of woredas (districts) that are within the Lake Tana sub-basin and cover the four main tributaries (Gilgel Abay, Ribb, Gumara, and Megech).  The inventory from 16 woredas showed more than 30,000 ha is under small-scale irrigation in the Lake Tana sub-basin in 2020. The dominant water source for irrigation is found to be surface water through diversion from rivers and streams. This accounts for 80% of irrigation water source. The other 20% comes from shallow groundwater sources, which are mainly located in the eastern part of the sub-basin in the floodplain in the Fogera area.

This study investigates the current situation of irrigation water abstraction through water abstraction surveys in selected locations in the dry-season and evaluates the impact of water abstraction on the long-term water balance of the sub-basin. Previous studies indicate that Gilgel Abay sub-basin, for instance, shows a decreasing dry season flow in the past decades, which might be associated with dry season water abstraction. The current survey provides the gross diversion of water from rivers to canals in the selected schemes. Preliminary results show large amount of water is being diverted by medium irrigation schemes but also collectively by small-scale irrigation schemes. Continuation of such water abstraction levels will be a concern to the water balance of the sub-basin as it increases losses without productive use and calls for better water management practices. 

How to cite: Taye, M. T. and Haile, A. T.: Impacts of human intervention through irrigation on hydrological responses of Lake Tana sub-basin, upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9012, 2021.

EGU21-9562 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Potential hydro-meteorological impacts over Burundi from climate change

María del Rocío Rivas López, Stefan Liersch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann

Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world with about 65% of the population living below the poverty line and suffering from alarming food insecurity. Its population is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which makes them extremely sensitive to climate variability and extremes for their subsistence. During the last decades, heavy rains, floods, and landslides suffered by Burundi’s population have led to severe famines, death, conflicts, and internal displacement among other fatalities, indicating the high vulnerability of this region to extreme events. Therefore, it is of vital importance to provide detailed information about the potential impacts of climate change in order to enhance adaptation options and preparedness in a country for which little information about climate projections and hydro-climatic impacts is available.

In this work, we investigated the changes in future climate over Burundi projected by a set of 13 regional climate models, for two future periods, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projections from CORDEX models have been used as forcing climate for the eco-hydrological Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) in order to assess future changes in mean and extreme river discharge and water availability across Burundi.

Our results indicate that unabated climate change will lead to faster and more severe warming over Burundi than the global mean. Precipitation will increase in the north of Burundi despite a possible prolongation of the dry season, and will decrease in the south, with the exception of the months core of the rainy season that show the highest rise along the year and across the country. The increase in the frequency, magnitude, and intensity of extreme climate events (daily temperature, dry and wet events) will characterize the future climate in this region according to CORDEX models.

These changes get translated into increases of discharge in North Burundi across the whole year in all future scenarios and periods (up to 196% in annual streamflow in small catchments and 40% in larger ones), and slight decreases in the south from February to October (up to 7%). The increase of daily and annual extreme river discharges, their probabilities of exceedance, and the decrease in their recurrence intervals implies a higher risk of floods in magnitude and frequency.

These findings indicate the critical importance of adaptation of land and water management to changing hydro-climatic conditions in Burundi to improve food security and support its development.

How to cite: Rivas López, M. R., Liersch, S., and Hattermann, F. F.: Potential hydro-meteorological impacts over Burundi from climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9562, 2021.

EGU21-10307 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Performance evaluation of the GPM-IMERG product for flood modeling over Moroccan mountainous basin

Tarik Saouabe, El Mahdi El Khalki, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi, Adam Najmi, Abdessamad Hadri, Said Rachidi, Mourad Jadoud, and Yves Tramblay

Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite constellation measurements combined in the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm is provided. This GPM-IMERG dataset provides potentially useful precipitation data for regions with a low density of rain gauges. This study is aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the near real-time product (IMERG-E) compared to observed rainfall and its suitability for hydrological modeling over the Ghdat watershed located upstream the city of Marrakech. Several statistical indices have been computed and a hydrological model has been driven with IMERG-E rainfall to estimate its suitability to simulate floods during the period from 2011 to 2018. The following results were obtained: (1) In terms of the precipitation detection capability, the IMERG-E performs better at reproducing the different precipitation statistics at the catchment scale rather than at the pixel scale (2) compared to the rain gauge data, satellite precipitation data overestimates rainfall amounts with a relative Bias of +35.61% (3) The flood events can be simulated with the hydrological model using both the observed and the IMERG-E satellite precipitation data with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.58 and 0.71, respectively. The results of this study indicate that the GPM-IMERG-E precipitation estimates can be used for flood modeling in semi-arid regions such as Morocco and provide a valuable alternative to ground-based precipitation measurements.

How to cite: Saouabe, T., El Khalki, E. M., Saidi, M. E. M., Najmi, A., Hadri, A., Rachidi, S., Jadoud, M., and Tramblay, Y.: Performance evaluation of the GPM-IMERG product for flood modeling over Moroccan mountainous basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10307, 2021.

EGU21-12086 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

How to assess the vulnerability and the risk of flooding of the most important catchment in the Republic of Djibouti?

Golab Moussa Omar, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Christian Salles, Gil Mahe, and Mohamed Jalludin

This study focus on the catchment of Ambouli wadi which is one of the country’s largest watersheds covering 794 km² (3.5 % of the total area of the Republic of Djibouti). Because of its groundwater resources, this exoreic watershed is of major importance. Indeed, the aquifer is the main source of drinking water supply for the city of Djibouti-city. In addition, this wadi is also responsible for floods causing human suffering and severe economic damages. Despite the importance of the catchment for the development of Djibouti-city, Ambouli wadi has been the subject of few scientific studies. This partly explains the scarcity of rainfall stations and therefore data in this area. Analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall is required to assess the risk of flooding.

In an arid country like the Republic of Djibouti flash floods are an important concern for the management of water resources systems and risk prevention and protection. The desertic climate of the country is characterized by high levels of temperature and evaporation, and also by very weak and irregular annual rainfall, distributed in two major seasons : a cooler season (from October to March) with high relative humidity and low temperatures comprised between 22°C and 30°C, and a hot and dry season (from June to September).

Rain data were collected from a network of 9 raingauge stations at different time scales, from monthly to hourly. These data are provided by the national meteorological agency (4 stations) and the early warning system of CERD National Research Center (5 stations).

 The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, is characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the analysis of rainfall normals over 30 years (1951-1980 and 1961-1990). Long time series data were available from 4 of the 9 stations: (Djibouti-serpent, Djibouti-aeorodrome, Oueah and Arta). At annual scale, the variability is clearly described by a succession of dry and humid years. Also, the monthly rainfall clearly demonstrates the well-known bimodal precipitation regime of east Africa. It shows, two peaks corresponding to the « long rain » and the « short rain » rainy seasons, which correspond to the period of March-April-May and of October-November-December, respectively. On the other hand, we also observe a dry period which is characterized by a rainfall deficit (negative rainfall index for almost all the stations) corresponding to the boreal summer (June to September). Daily data is currently collecting from the Djibouti-aerodrome station (1981-2017) for a better understanding of the precipitation regime. Rainy days are computed from daily data (rainfall > 1 mm) and we find an annual average of 11 wet days with a minimum in 1988 (1 rainy day) and a maximum in 1993 (23 rainy days).

How to cite: Moussa Omar, G., Paturel, J.-E., Salles, C., Mahe, G., and Jalludin, M.: How to assess the vulnerability and the risk of flooding of the most important catchment in the Republic of Djibouti?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12086, 2021.

EGU21-13405 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2 | Highlight

Nitrogen inputs from smallholder farming in a tropical montane catchment - current state and outlook

Miriam Kasebele, Suzanne Jacobs, Mariana Rufino, and Lutz Breuer

Rising human populations increase the demand for food and lead to the intensification of agriculture and nitrogen fertilization to sustain productivity. In the tropical montane Mau Forest Complex in Kenya, the annual export of nitrogen from a catchment dominated by smallholder agriculture were reported to almost double those from the native forest. Despite the assumption that this excess nitrogen originates from fertilizer application, there are no studies that provide empirical information on the amount and spatial distribution of nitrogen inputs from smallholder agriculture into these catchments. Given the fact that the Mau Forest complex lost 25% of its forest cover to agriculture and other encroachment activities, such information is essential to better quantify the effect of smallholder farming practices on the nitrogen cycle and its contribution to catchment nitrogen export.

This study aimed at quantifying spatial distribution of fertilizer inputs in a smallholder catchment in the Mau Forest Complex using a household survey (n=185).

Results show that almost all farmers (99.4%) use inorganic fertilizers with an average nitrogen (N) application rate of 41±7.8 kg N ha-1 yr-1 diammonium phosphate (DAP). Among the DAP users, 16% apply in addition 79±3.9 kg N ha-1 yr-1 as NPK fertilizer, and 11% add 29±5.3 kg N ha-1 yr-1 as calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN). Overall, the average nitrogen input from inorganic fertilizers is 64±13.7 kg N ha-1 yr-1. Only 6% of the cropland is fertilized using manure and other farmland residues with 79% of farmers anticipating to increase their inorganic fertilizer application rates in the future.

In conclusion, a future increase in nitrogen application rates on farmland in combination with continued conversion of natural forest to agricultural land raises a concern on whether nitrogen export will increase further, posing a threat to drinking water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems downstream. To balance the trade-off between food production and the catchment nitrogen balance, there is a need to train farmers on appropriate methods, timing and optimal amounts of fertilizer application to prevent unnecessary losses.

How to cite: Kasebele, M., Jacobs, S., Rufino, M., and Breuer, L.: Nitrogen inputs from smallholder farming in a tropical montane catchment - current state and outlook, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13405, 2021.

EGU21-16344 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Assessing Water Availability for Development in Africa using GRACE Satellites

Bridget R Scanlon, Ashraf Rateb, and Hua Xie

Access to water is a critical issue in Sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage using GRACE satellites in the major aquifers and potential for development. Results show that Total Water Storage (TWS) variability tracked by GRACE satellites is dominated by interannual variability in most aquifer systems driven by dry and wet climate cycles, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and others. Climate cycles result in systems being subjected to droughts or floods, which is challenging for water resources management. Linear trends in TWS were limited to west Africa attributed to land use change and north Africa linked to water use. Variability in storage of some reservoirs and groundwater hydrographs is similar to storage variability from GRACE satellites. Examples of approaches toward sustainable management of water resources include storage of excess flood water for use during droughts in surface reservoirs, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, and managed aquifer recharge. Understanding the linkages between climate cycles and water storage should help optimize water management within this framework.

How to cite: Scanlon, B. R., Rateb, A., and Xie, H.: Assessing Water Availability for Development in Africa using GRACE Satellites, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16344, 2021.

EGU21-16563 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.2

Framing the state-of-the-art on the use of software for sustainable groundwater resource management in the African continent

Rudy Rossetto, Sara Veroli, Anis Chekirbane, Ezio Crestaz, and Cesar Carmona-Moreno

Groundwater is a resource of increasing prominence in Africa whose potential has still to be developed in full capacity. While it is clear that data gathering is of outmost importance to achieve a certain level of knowledge for many African aquifer systems, Information and Communication Technology may support and boost efficient data management. This way, more technically sound and even community-based decisions may be made. In this context, we attempted to frame the state-of-the-art on the use of digital tools for supporting sustainable groundwater management in the African continent. By means of a comprehensive literature review and performing investigations via a structured questionnaire on ongoing practices at institutional/private sector level, the results allow a clear view on the present level of knowledge and on the diffusion of such tools.

At present the use of digital tools/groundwater numerical models is deemed to be an occasional activity, mostly applied for large engineering projects or basic modelling studies, rarely used for planning and management of the resource. All in all, their use in the period 2000-2020 can be considered low, with a clear difference between North Africa and Sub-Saharan African countries. Digital tools are recognised as needed tools by African institutions at national/regional level. However, skills and capacities are largely missing: the need for capacity building is (extremely) high. Commercial software solutions still dominate the market, while open source ones appear in increasing trend of usage in the last years.

Finally, main barriers in the use of digital tools are: i) scarcity of data, ii) inadequate resources (lack of computing resources), and iii) missing capacities (lack of computing skills). In addition to these, the lack of adequate and well-functioning Internet connection is considered one of the main bottleneck in favouring the spread of new technologies. Capacity building and knowledge transfer has then to be on top of the agenda for a digital groundwater governance in Africa. In particular, training should be directed to favour the use (and re-reuse) of open-source applications and the often huge amount of information and contents available. A generation of experts with a sounding interdisciplinary background should be able, in five to ten years, to properly manage ICT applications.

How to cite: Rossetto, R., Veroli, S., Chekirbane, A., Crestaz, E., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: Framing the state-of-the-art on the use of software for sustainable groundwater resource management in the African continent, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16563, 2021.

HS2.1.3 – Zero flow: hydrology and biogeochemistry of intermittent and ephemeral streams

EGU21-8426 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Monitoring zero water level in a drought-affected headwater stream network

Amelie Herzog, Kerstin Stahl, Markus Weiler, and Veit Blauhut

Even largely perennial rivers can fall dry during drought events. A resulting partial or full drying-up of streambeds is difficult to monitor with conventional gauging stations, but important as it heavily impacts water availability, quality and aquatic ecosystems. With a predicted tendency towards more extreme droughts, event-based intermittency is likely to increase requiring a better longitudinal quantification of water level and streamflow conditions. The Dreisam River in the south-west of Germany is a stream with a highly dynamic hydrology. In the recent extreme drought years of 2015, 2018 and 2019 the main stream and tributaries partly fell dry; whereas the main gauging station still recorded flow. Furthermore, several tributaries fell dry in 2016, 2017 and 2019.To improve the understanding of the interaction between streamflow, groundwater and water usages in low flow and zero-flow situations, a flexible longitudinal water quality and quantity monitoring network was developed. Different techniques such as QR-code-reading camera systems and ultrasound devices to log water levels as well as water temperature and electrical conductivity sensors were used. The set-up was additionally equipped with conventional capacitive water level loggers. Here, we present a comparison of the different water level monitoring techniques in order to a) evaluate the advantages and limits of the novel techniques and b) investigate any added value of longitudinal, catchment wide zero level monitoring. The results show that the choice of the measurement sites' environment, including shading of QR-codes, light reflections of the water surface and streambed topography, is crucial for a successful application of the used techniques. The distributed gauges reveal a highly variable longitudinal drying pattern within the river network that appears to be event-specific and may not be explained without consideration of all natural and altered system fluxes.

How to cite: Herzog, A., Stahl, K., Weiler, M., and Blauhut, V.: Monitoring zero water level in a drought-affected headwater stream network, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8426, 2021.

EGU21-629 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

The use of environmental data in detailing the hydroregime of a temporary pond

Gavin Campbell and Eric Hyslop

Temporary waters span both terrestrial and aquatic environments, though the terrestrial phase is typically understudied. A key component in the ecology of these water bodies is the length of the hydroperiod. To date, hydroperiod length in temporary waters is determined largely by site visits and camera traps. These methods of determination however, are taxing on resources at fine temporal resolutions (daily). While water level loggers are able to determine hydroperiod length, they are relatively expensive and peak at 50°C, preventing the collection of terrestrial data, particularly within the tropics.

Here we propose an alternative low-cost method for the determination of a temporary pond’s hydroperiod length using anchored HOBO pendant dataloggers of temperature and light intensity. By analysing the environmental data collected at fine temporal resolution across dry and wet seasons - corroborated by daily rainfall collection and frequent site visits - the determination of phase, whether aquatic or terrestrial, using this method was possible. This then extended to the determination of the length of the hydroperiod.

In addition to determining hydroperiod length, this method also provided data on the diurnal temperature dynamics, photoperiod and irradiation intensity of the aquatic and terrestrial phases. Trends in pond drying were also detectable using these data. In the terrestrial phase, the method provided data on soil surface temperatures, which was particularly lacking for the Caribbean. These data are important in understanding environmental stress regimes among aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, with applications in agriculture, conservation and infrastructure.

How to cite: Campbell, G. and Hyslop, E.: The use of environmental data in detailing the hydroregime of a temporary pond, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-629, 2021.

EGU21-3059 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Using stable isotopes to estimate the time since disconnection of pools in temporary rivers 

Pilar Llorens, Sebastián González, Jérôme Latron, Cesc Múrria, Núria Bonada, and Francesc Gallart

Temporary rivers, characterized by shifts between flowing water, disconnected pools and dry periods, represent over 50% of the world’s river network and future climatic projections suggest their increase. These rivers are understudied, especially when only disconnected pools remain, because gauging stations or hydrological models do not inform of what happens after the cessation of flow. In addition, most of biological indicators for water quality are designed for flowing waters and their adequacy for temporary rivers is uncertain.

The development of biological metrics adequate for the assessment of disconnected pools is difficult, because the high species replacement during and following flow cessation. For this reason, one hydrological variable of paramount importance for the assessment of ecological quality of disconected pools is the time since disconnection from the river flow.

The objective of our work is to present a methodology to estimate the time since disconnection of pools from the river flow. This methodology, following the Gonfiantini (1986) model, is based on the sampling of water stable isotopes in disconnected pools. For pools disconnected from the groundwater, knowing the isotopic modification of the water in time due to evaporation, allows to estimate the relative volume of water evaporated since the pool has been disconnected. However, this approach gets complicated when pools have relevant rainfall inputs or exchanges with groundwater.

Within the Vallcebre research area (42º12’N and 1º49’E), two artificial pools, one covered with a transparent lid to prevent the input of rainfall and another uncovered, were installed to validate this methodology in controlled conditions. From July to November 2020, water volume of these pools were weekly measured and sampled for isotopic analysis. In parallel, meteorological variables were monitored and rainfall was also sampled for water stable isotopes.

To develop and validate an operational methodology for estimating the time since disconnection, we first calculated the relative amount of evaporated water based on the variations of isotopic composition of the covered pool samples, and estimated the time since disconnection (for a given natural pool) using the potential evaporation calculated from the meteorological data. For the uncovered pool, the information of amount and isotopic composition of rainfall was added in a mass balance model. Additionally, the same estimations were calculated with standard information (i.e. the meteorological data obtained from the National Meteorological Service and precipitation isotopes data from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency). Finally, measured volumes changes in pools, were used to assess the limitations of the operational methodology and the sensitivity of the results to meteorological conditions.

Our approach suggests that changes in isotopic composition can be a reliable method to estimate time since disconnection of pools in temporary rivers to better assess their ecological quality.

How to cite: Llorens, P., González, S., Latron, J., Múrria, C., Bonada, N., and Gallart, F.: Using stable isotopes to estimate the time since disconnection of pools in temporary rivers , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3059, 2021.

EGU21-6544 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

The drying regimes of non-perennial rivers

Adam Price, C.Nathan Jones, John Hammond, Margaret Zimmer, and Samuel Zipper

The paradigm of surface water flow regimes is central to the aquatic sciences, where the timing, duration, frequency, magnitude, and rate of change of flow drive physical, chemical, and biological functions in aquatic systems. However, non-perennial streams comprise the majority of the global river network and there is a need to understand not just whether or not a stream periodically dries, but how it dries. Here, we propose to flip the script on flow regimes by presenting a comprehensive 'drying regime' framework to characterize stream drying.  We then identify similar drying characteristics in streams across watersheds with a broad range of climates, physiographic regions, and land uses. Using daily streamflow from 894 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages we isolated over 25,000 unique drying events over a period from 1979 - 2018. From these drying events we identified and calculated streamflow metrics that describe timing, duration, magnitude, frequency, and rate of change of stream drying. Using multivariate statistics, k-means clustering, and random forest analyses we grouped drying events into distinct drying regimes and determined the drivers of the clustered regimes. K-means clustering resulted in 4 distinct drying regimes characterized by (1) more frequent drying, (2) longer no-flow duration, (3) drying occurring following low antecedent flows, and (4) flashy high frequency drying, respectively. The majority of gages had more than one drying regime present at different times within each year, suggesting that dominant flow paths or drivers varied through time  Clustered drying regimes show low event-scale spatial coherence, and while drying regimes (1) and (2) show similar frequency throughout the year, (3) and (4) are substantially more frequent during summer months. Based on random forest analysis, land cover characteristics appear to drive drying event assignment to drying regimes more than climate variables. Furthermore, increased importance of individual watershed properties shows that the structural makeup of the watershed is notably more important to how an intermittent system dries than climate or physiographic characteristics. Non-perennial systems have unique functions due to the occurrence of both flowing and dry states, yet most of the past efforts rely on frameworks built around perennial streamflow behavior. Our work presents a novel drying regime framework to allow future studies to more effectively connect river drying to the physical, chemical, and biological functioning in these systems. This framework may also aid in current sustainable river management, including engineered flow regimes that are designed to balance water allocations with ecosystem requirements.

How to cite: Price, A., Jones, C. N., Hammond, J., Zimmer, M., and Zipper, S.: The drying regimes of non-perennial rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6544, 2021.

EGU21-7897 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Characterizing temporary stream dynamics: the Stream Length Duration Curve

Nicola Durighetto, Anfonso Senatore, and Gianluca Botter

Temporary streams (i.e. streams that temporarily cease to flow) are becoming a hot research topic in hydrology. These streams provide an invaluable contribution to riverine ecosystems, as they host a variety of habitats (from lotic to lentic and terrestrial) which sustain high biodiversity. Temporary streams can be found in different regions of the world and are characterized by strongly heterogeneous flow patterns, from flashy streams that flow only after rainfall events to rivers that episodically experience droughts. Many recent studies investigated temporary streams, originating interesting observational datasets about event-based or seasonal network dynamics. Empirical or conceptual models are usually employed for assessing the main physical drivers of network dynamics in each specific study site.
In this contribution, we develop and apply novel theoretical tools to understand how the local statistical properties of each reach of the network affect the catchment-scale variability of the active length. In particular, the Stream Length Duration Curve (SLDC) is proposed to efficiently summarize catchment-scale dynamics of the active length, providing an objective way to quantify network dynamics. The concept of SLDC is applied to a number of Italian headwater catchments, where data about temporal changes in the configuration of the flowing stream are available, providing a clue for the characterization of emergent temporal and spatial patterns of network dynamics. The Stream Length Duration Curve can facilitate comparisons across different catchments an time periods, possibly enabling and objective classification of temporary streams. 

How to cite: Durighetto, N., Senatore, A., and Botter, G.: Characterizing temporary stream dynamics: the Stream Length Duration Curve, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7897, 2021.

EGU21-3640 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Improving representation of zero flows in probabilistic hydrological modelling of ephemeral catchments

Dmitri Kavetski, David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Julien Lerat, and George Kuczera

Ephemeral catchments, where streamflow is frequently zero or negligible, are common across the world yet difficult to model reliably. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches for modelling streamflow in ephemeral catchments, with a focus on the description of predictive uncertainty using residual error models.

We compare an explicit treatment of zero flows using a censoring approach versus a simpler pragmatic approach where the lower streamflow bound of zero is applied in prediction only. Following a theoretical exposition, empirical comparisons are reported using a daily rainfall-runoff model (GR4J), four residual error schemes (based on log, log-sinh and Box-Cox (BC) transformations with power parameter L = 0.2 and 0.5), 74 Australian catchments with diverse hydroclimatology, and five performance metrics, including reliability, precision, bias and proportion of zero flow days.

The explicit approach is most beneficial in "mid-ephemeral" catchments (5-50% zero flows) where it offers substantial improvements over the pragmatic approach. The BC0.2 and BC0.5 transformations are Pareto optimal: BC0.2 achieves better characterisation of predictive uncertainty, whereas BC0.5 attains lower volumetric bias. In "low-ephemeral" catchments (<5% zero flows) the pragmatic approach is sufficient, whereas in "high-ephemeral" catchments (>50% zero flows) both approaches incur limitations and further method development is warranted. The findings provide guidance on improving probabilistic streamflow predictions in ephemeral catchments.

How to cite: Kavetski, D., McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Lerat, J., and Kuczera, G.: Improving representation of zero flows in probabilistic hydrological modelling of ephemeral catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3640, 2021.

EGU21-9414 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

Anna Maria De Girolamo, Youssef Brouziyne, Lahcen Benaabidate, Aziz Aboubdillah, Ali El Bilali, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.

How to cite: De Girolamo, A. M., Brouziyne, Y., Benaabidate, L., Aboubdillah, A., El Bilali, A., Bouchaou, L., and Chehbouni, A.: Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9414, 2021.

EGU21-9555 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Simulating streamflow in a temporary karst river system

Giovanni Francesco Ricci, Marco Centanni, Francesco Gentile, and Anna Maria De Girolamo

Most of the basins in the Mediterranean Region are characterized by a large spatial gradient in rainfall and temperature and heterogeneity in lithology, soil, and land use. Such environmental factors determine a specific hydrological regime of the river systems that generally includes periods of absence of flow and flash flood events.

In the past decades, several countries in South Europe did not invest resources for the monitoring of the intermittent river systems. Currently, several basins have limited time series of streamflow and water quality data. In addition, it is not rare the case of climate stations not well distributed in the basin as well as the presence of several gaps in the time series.

The lithology and geological features are among the main factors affecting the flow regime, playing a crucial role in groundwater and surface-water interaction and water exchange for which the flow may appear and disappear along with the river network. In such a complex environment, the hydrological and water quality model set up and run may be challenging.

Through a case study, this work aims to face some challenges and to define problem-solving in simulating hydrology in Mediterranean basins. The area is characterized by (i) heterogeneity in lithology with karst areas, (ii) limited flow data availability for calibrating the model, (iii) flow intermittence in the river network. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Canale D’aiedda  (Puglia, Italy), a temporary karst river basin under the Mediterranean climate and with limited data availability. Different solutions were tested to simulate the hydrological processes in the karstic areas including both GIS elaborations and model parameters settings and modifications. Among the main parameters, infiltration and transmission losses and soil hydraulic parameters resulted in the most relevant in simulating hydrology in the karst areas. To calibrate the model, a split-in-space procedure was adopted to overcome the limited streamflow measurement availability. Finally, a zero-flow threshold was introduced to predict the number of zero-flow days in the intermittent river reaches, simulating accurately the flow intermittence and the extreme low flow.

The results show that by using specific strategies in setting-up and calibrating the model, the SWAT model is able to simulate daily streamflow with acceptable performances in complex river basins.

How to cite: Ricci, G. F., Centanni, M., Gentile, F., and De Girolamo, A. M.: Simulating streamflow in a temporary karst river system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9555, 2021.

EGU21-12641 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Statistical modelling of intermittence metrics in temporary rivers of the UK

Michael Eastman, Simon Parry, Catherine Sefton, Juhyun Park, and Judy England

Lack of monitoring of the IRES network limits the potential to develop current understanding of these critical landscape features. Simulation offers potential to improve the spatiotemporal extent and resolution of the available evidence, enabling further research to be performed and understanding developed. Previous research has demonstrated the potential for statistical models to accurately reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of intermittent rivers.

In this study ordinal regression models were trained to simulate the hydrological regime for the first time, enabling the simulation of flowing, ponded and dry dynamics using localised environmental variables, site characteristics and seasonality. This was enabled by a dataset covering the full range of hydrological conditions of ten chalk streams in the Chiltern Hills, UK over the last 23 years.

The hydrological regime was accurately simulated using ordinal regression models, with weighted f-scores ranging from 0.759-0.955, and scores exceeding 0.935 in the six most westerly streams. This apparent west-east pattern was also present in other evaluation metrics, with probability of detection scores ranging from 0.954 to 0.973 in the westerly streams, and 0.775 to 0.908 in the east, and Correct Classification Rate ranging from 0.935 to 0.955 in the west, and 0.849 to 0.909 in the east. The apparent relationship between model performance and BFI suggests groundwater influence on the hydrological regime    

Further research provided further insights into controls on model performance, including groundwater influence, prominence of ponding and the relatively rapid response of the easterly streams. In addition to improved understanding of controls on model performance, the accurate reconstruction of hydrological regime in these rivers facilitates research from linking associated data to previously unavailable hydrological state data, to investigating climate change impacts and influence of abstraction pressures on these invaluable ecosystems.

How to cite: Eastman, M., Parry, S., Sefton, C., Park, J., and England, J.: Statistical modelling of intermittence metrics in temporary rivers of the UK, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12641, 2021.

EGU21-10767 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Linking the dynamic expansion and contraction of stream networks to changes in water storage and water quality in a pre-Alpine catchment

Izabela Bujak, Andrea Rinaldo, Ilja van Meerveld, Florian Käslin, and Jana von Freyberg

Many headwater catchments are characterized by temporary streams that flow only seasonally or during rainfall events. As a result, the network of flowing streams is a dynamic system that periodically expands and contracts. This dynamic is likely to affect water flow and composition: the expansion of the stream network enhances the hydrologic connectivity of hillslopes to the streams, which facilitates shorter transit times. Also, the onset of flow in previously dry streambeds can cause flushing of sediments and nutrients. However, our knowledge of the relationships between flowing stream network dynamics and water quantity and quality in headwater catchments is still limited because experimental data remain sparse.

Within the TempAqua project we investigate the processes that drive stream network dynamics by relating measurements of stream network geometry to changes in catchment water storage and stream water quality. For this, we monitored the flow state, discharge, groundwater levels, soil moisture, and precipitation in three (3-7 ha) headwater catchments in the northern Swiss pre-Alps (Alptal catchment) in summer and fall 2020 using a wireless sensor network. To obtain high-resolution data of the dynamic stream network, we did multiple mapping surveys using a self-developed mobile phone application. Moreover, we sampled streamwater and precipitation at an hourly resolution during rainfall events at multiple locations to quantify the short-term changes in water quality when the stream network expands. We will present our research activities in the Alptal catchment and discuss the initial results obtained from the combined monitoring of the flowing stream network and hydrometric and hydrochemical variables.

How to cite: Bujak, I., Rinaldo, A., van Meerveld, I., Käslin, F., and von Freyberg, J.: Linking the dynamic expansion and contraction of stream networks to changes in water storage and water quality in a pre-Alpine catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10767, 2021.

EGU21-15871 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.3

Ephemeral Streams: An overlooked permanent source of groundwater and Nutrients to the Mediterranean Sea

Marc Diego-Feliu, Valentí Rodellas, Aaron Alorda-Kleinglass, Júlia Domínguez-Gabarró, Maarten Saaltink, Albert Folch, and Jordi Garcia-Orellana
Fluxes of nutrients, metals, contaminants, among others dissolved compounds transported from land to oceans have a direct impact on coastal biogeochemical cycles. One of these land-ocean interaction mechanisms, recently recognized as an important source of these compounds, is the flow of groundwater from continental margins to the coastal ocean, commonly known as Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD). The Mediterranean coastline is characterized by the presence of ephemeral streams, geomorphological settings that act as preferential flow paths for both runoff and groundwater towards the sea. The Mediterranean Basin is highly influenced by strong precipitation events (>50 mm) that commonly occur during fall and spring seasons such as isolated depression at high levels events, locally named ‘gota-freda’. In such situations, runoff causes several social and environmental impacts along ephemeral streams that have been long recognized. However, when the surface water flow ceases, the subterranean part of ephemeral streams may continue supplying water and solutes to the coastal ocean via SGD. This process and its effects for coastal ecosystems have been largely overlooked. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a ‘gota-freda’ event on both the role of ephemeral streams as preferential areas for groundwater discharge and on the magnitude of SGD and SGD-derived nutrient fluxes. To do so, three seawater sampling campaigns were performed in a Mediterranean coastal region dominated by ephemeral streams (Maresme, Catalunya) after heavy rainfall events (~50 mm) and in baseflow conditions. Results of this study indicate that SGD flows are between 5 and 7 times higher after a strong precipitation event than in baseflow conditions indicating that the supply of nutrients and other dissolved compounds to the Mediterranean Sea is highly dependent on these events. This study highlights that this mechanism is a relevant process for coastal biogeochemical cycles of semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean basin.

How to cite: Diego-Feliu, M., Rodellas, V., Alorda-Kleinglass, A., Domínguez-Gabarró, J., Saaltink, M., Folch, A., and Garcia-Orellana, J.: Ephemeral Streams: An overlooked permanent source of groundwater and Nutrients to the Mediterranean Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15871, 2021.

HS2.1.4 – Hydrological processes in agricultural lands under changing environments

EGU21-15262 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Hydrological functioning of irrigated maize crops in southwest France using Eddy Covariance measurements and a land surface model

Oluwakemi Dare-Idowu, Lionel Jarlan, Aurore Brut, Valerie Le-Dantec, Vincent Rivalland, Eric Ceshia, and Aaron Boone

This study aims to analyze the main components of the energy and hydric budgets of irrigated maize in southwestern France. To this objective, the ISBA-A-gs (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) is run over six maize growing seasons. As a preliminary step, the ability of the ISBA-A-gs model to predict the different terms of the energy and water budgets is assessed thanks to a large database of in situ measurements by comparing the single budget version of the model with the new Multiple Energy Balance version solving an energy budget separately for the soil and the vegetation. The in situ data set acquired at the Lamasquere site (43.48o N, 1.249o E) includes half-hourly measurements of sensible (H) and latent heat fluxes (LE) estimated by an Eddy Covariance system. Measurements also include net radiation (Rn), ground heat flux (G), plant transpiration with sap flow sensors, meteorological variables, and 15-days measurements of vegetation characteristics. The seasonal dynamics of the turbulent fluxes were properly reproduced by both configurations of the model with an R² ranging from 0.66 to 0.89, and a root mean square error lower than 48 W m-2. Statistical metrics showed that H was better predicted by MEB with R² of 0.80 in comparison to ISBA-Ags (0.73). However, the difference between the RMSE of ISBA-Ags and MEB during the well-developed stage of the plants for both H and LE does not exceed 8 W m-2. This implies that MEB only has a significant added value over ISBA-Ags when the soil and the canopy are not fully coupled, and over a heterogeneous field. Furthermore, this study made a comparison between the sap flow measurements and the transpiration simulated by ISBA-A-gs and MEB. A good dynamics was reproduced by ISBA-A-gs and MEB, although, MEB (R²= 0.91) provided a slightly more realistic estimation of the vegetation transpiration. Consequently, this study investigated the dynamics of the water budget during the growing maize seasons. Results indicated that drainage is almost null on the site, while the observed values of cumulative evapotranspiration that was higher than the water inputs are related to a shallow ground table that provides supplement water to the crop. This work provides insight into the modeling of water and energy exchanges over maize crops and opens perspectives for better water management of the crop in the future.

How to cite: Dare-Idowu, O., Jarlan, L., Brut, A., Le-Dantec, V., Rivalland, V., Ceshia, E., and Boone, A.: Hydrological functioning of irrigated maize crops in southwest France using Eddy Covariance measurements and a land surface model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15262, 2021.

EGU21-371 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4 | Highlight

Understanding the Hydrologic Response Mechanisms of California’s Largest Lake in a Highly Managed Endorheic Basin

Juan Sebastian Acero Triana and Hoori Ajami

In recent decades, saline lakes are being globally shrunk at alarming rates due to the combined effect of global warming and long-term water mismanagement to support agriculture and industrial demand. These factors have altered the fragile balance of these ecosystems triggering serious environmental issues. A well-known case in the Southwestern US is the Salton Sea, the largest lake in California. While the Salton Sea Basin (SSB) is considered as one of the most productive agricultural regions in North America, improvements in the agricultural water use efficiency to sustain and increase food production have imbalanced the lake’s water budget. Lake's water level has declined by 33% between 2000 and 2018 causing increases in salinity and anoxia, and the spreading of toxic dust from the exposed playa. Considering the key role of the Salton Sea in ecohydrological regulation and the wide spectrum of ecosystem services (e.g., wildlife habitat, transport, recreation), greater science-based efforts are needed to formulate timely adaptation and mitigation strategies for lake restoration and conservation. However, prior to formulating these strategies, it is crucial to understand the hydrologic response mechanisms of the basin to natural and anthropogenic stressors as well as the historic causal factors that have dictated its environmental deterioration. In this study, we developed a semi-distributed modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantify the regional water balance and understand interrelationships among ecological, hydrological, and human-impact variables. Preliminary results determined that the water contribution from the major lake tributaries has not been significantly affected over time and the imbalances in the lake’s water budget may be associated with changes in groundwater-surface water interactions due to agricultural water management. The final results of this study are expected to assist decision-makers with a robust modeling tool to evaluate the environmental tradeoffs in implementing distinct management alternatives across SSB while minimizing its economic consequences.

How to cite: Acero Triana, J. S. and Ajami, H.: Understanding the Hydrologic Response Mechanisms of California’s Largest Lake in a Highly Managed Endorheic Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-371, 2021.

EGU21-330 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

The changes in Mulberry-based fish ponds in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area over the past 40 years

Wenxin Zhang, Zihao Cheng, Xianfeng Liu, Gangte Lin, Junan He, Fangyuan Huang, and Xiankun Yang

Mulberry-based fish ponds are representative traditional eco-agriculture in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Investigations about the changes in such ponds and their relevant water environment under the background of rapid urbanization can provide a reference for the protection and development of these ponds. Using the Landsat images obtained after 1986, this study employed supervised classification and visual interpretation approaches and water intensity index as well as calculating synthesized index to identify the spatial patterns of changes in Mulberry-based fish ponds in the GBA. The results indicated that the year of 2013 was the inflection point of fish pond changes, which can also be proved by calculating synthesized index. The causes to the changes in fish ponds were further explored from four aspects: land use change, industrial transfer, government guidance and financial motives.

How to cite: Zhang, W., Cheng, Z., Liu, X., Lin, G., He, J., Huang, F., and Yang, X.: The changes in Mulberry-based fish ponds in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area over the past 40 years, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-330, 2021.

EGU21-1248 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4 | Highlight

Cultivated floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong delta: understanding the changing balance between the flow regime and the agricultural practices

Christina Anna Orieschnig, Gilles Belaud, Jean-Philippe Venot, and Sylvain Massuel

On the floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong Delta, rainfed and irrigated dry-season agriculture is a crucial source of revenue for the local population. Traditional rice production is being progressively complemented by the cultivation of higher-value crops like maize, fruit trees and vegetables. Fundamentally, the annual monsoon regime and the resulting flood dynamics determine the framework for these agricultural practices, with a wet season lasting from June to November and a peak high flow reached in September. Rice is cultivated after flood recession in lower-lying areas. On higher terrain, fruit trees and vegetables are widely irrigated by farmers using individual pumps to lift water from large-scale communal channels.


However, in recent years, various drivers of change have impacted these long-established dynamics. Climate change is causing shifting precipitation patterns and a modification of annual flow regimes in the Mekong river and its deltaic distributaries. In addition, the irrigation channel infrastructure is being largely rehabilitated by both local initiatives and international development agencies. These measures are rapidly changing the conveyance network for inundation, drainage, and irrigation on the floodplains, with proportions and consequences which are yet unknown. Finally, land use changes driven by market forces - such as the shift to cash crops like mango trees - are modifying the crop water demand in the area. 


In this context, the present study aims to provide a thorough understanding and quantification of the effects of these changes with regard to crop water requirements, irrigation efficiency, and agricultural productivity. Extensive fieldwork was carried out on a 44-km² area to gather knowledge of agricultural practices (especially irrigation) and to identify the main local hydrological objects and drivers. The land use and seasonal inundation extents were characterized through remote sensing analyses, using optical Sentinel-2 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 images. On that basis, an eco-hydrological model is being developed on the generic software platform OpenFLUID, explicitly representing the hydraulic connections and irrigation decisions. This tool will be used to highlight possible salient control factors for hydrological processes, and to simulate the direct and indirect effects of climate change scenarios, irrigation and water power infrastructure development, and land use changes on local hydrology, irrigation, and agricultural productivity. 

How to cite: Orieschnig, C. A., Belaud, G., Venot, J.-P., and Massuel, S.: Cultivated floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong delta: understanding the changing balance between the flow regime and the agricultural practices, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1248, 2021.

EGU21-4453 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4 | Highlight

Are catchment-scale nitrogen and phosphorous use efficiencies controlled by climate?

Anna Scaini and Stefano Manzoni

Nutrient loss from agricultural fields imparts increased fertilizer costs as well as negative consequences for the natural environment. Given that water availability mediates both nutrient uptake by plants as well as nutrient leaching, we hypothesize that hydrologic conditions can explain variations in nutrient use efficiencies, defined as ratios of the nutrient amounts in harvested yield and in inputs. We analyze data from 110 US catchments with agricultural area comprising more than 10% of the watershed and compute nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiencies (NUE and PUE) over the period 1988-2007. To assess if NUE and PUE are related to hydrologic conditions, we consider the evaporative ratio ET/P (calculated as evapotranspiration divided by precipitation) as a predictor in a linear mixed effect model. We test the hypotheses that the nutrient use efficiencies increase with ET/P, through increased water and nutrient retention, and that the nutrient efficiencies increase through time. We found that both nutrient use efficiencies increased through time: NUE increased in the period analyzed in 88% of catchments, while PUE in 90% of catchments. Both NUE and PUE were largely driven by significant increases in N and P amounts in yield. The evaporative ratio was positively related to NUE. Moreover, we found an interaction between ET/P and time, such that the ET/P effect on NUE decreased in the period 1998–2007. The evaporative ratio was also positively related to PUE. Other potential drivers were assessed, including interaction between ET/P and time, as well as the percentage of agricultural area in each catchment. Our results show that changes in climate that include increased evaporation and decreased precipitation can lead to increase N use efficiencies without decreasing yields. The implications of our findings in terms of the release of N and P to water bodies has particular relevance in terms of climate change, as higher temperatures and lower precipitation (i.e. increasing evaporative ratios) will potentially lead to increased nutrient retention and therefore decreased nutrient leaching from agricultural fields.

How to cite: Scaini, A. and Manzoni, S.: Are catchment-scale nitrogen and phosphorous use efficiencies controlled by climate?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4453, 2021.

EGU21-4972 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

The Effects of Agricultural Conservation Practices on the Local Water Cycle in conditions of the Czech Republic Modeled by SWAT

Nina Noreika, Tailin Li, David Zumr, Josef krása, and Tomáš Dostál

The Czech Republic is an intensely agricultural country. Agricultural intensification of the Czech Republic started in the 1970s during the Communist regime wherein large monotonous agricultural fields, subsurface tile drainage systems, and artificially straightened streams were incorporated across the landscape. Since 1989 (the end of the Communist era), agricultural land and management has been privatized and has experienced shifts from centrally planned crop rotations to those that are economically-driven. On the other hand, nowadays many Czech farmers are beginning to explore various agricultural conservation practices which can have as significant of an impact as land use changes. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of various agricultural conservation practices (contour tillage, reduced tillage, and grass strip addition) and decreasing field sizes at the farm scale in a representative agricultural basin in the Czech Republic. We conducted scenario analysis using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to determine the effects of these measures on basin water balance and soil erosion. Through SWAT we were able to determine which measures are most effective when combined at the farm-scale.

Acknowledgment: The presented research has been performed within project H2020 No. 773903 Shui, focused on water scarcity in European and Chinese cropping systems and the Grant Agency of Czech Technical University in Prague, No. SGS20/156/OHK1/3T/11.

How to cite: Noreika, N., Li, T., Zumr, D., krása, J., and Dostál, T.: The Effects of Agricultural Conservation Practices on the Local Water Cycle in conditions of the Czech Republic Modeled by SWAT, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4972, 2021.

EGU21-5876 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Elucidating soil moisture dynamics in agricultural landscapes under varying weather patterns

Veronica Fritz, Thakshajini Thaasan, Andrew Williams, Ranjith Udawatta, Sidath Mendis, and Noel Aloysius

Changing weather patterns and anthropogenic land use change significantly alter the terrestrial water cycle. A key variable that modulates the water cycle on the land surface is soil moisture and its variability in time and space. Hydrological models are used to simulate key components of the water cycle including infiltration, soil storage and uptake by plants. However, uncertainties remain in accurately representing soil moisture dynamics in models. Here, with the aid of several sensors installed at a 30-ha experimental research facility, we attempt to quantify differences in soil water storage across multiple land use types – cropped area, mosaic of turf grass and native plants, and an unkept weeded area as control land use. We will also discuss the accuracy of sensors to correctly measure soil water storage. Our study was conducted at an agricultural experimental station in Columbia, Missouri, USA. We use a variety of instruments to measure weather, evapotranspiration, and soil water. We used boundary layer scintillometers to measure near-surface turbulence, sensors to continuously track soil moisture and temperature, as well as weather stations for precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation and wind speed.  Changes in volumetric water content and soil temperature are measured at 5-minute intervals at 10-, 20-, and 40-cm soil depths to compare soil water storage among the three land use types. We also took soil samples before and after several storm events to calibrate the sensor readings at three sites. We, then, analyzed several storm events over a period of five months and compared the actual soil moisture and soil temperature dynamics at finer time intervals. With additional measurements of weather and boundary layer turbulence, we hope to reveal the landscape and weather control on soil moisture distribution across multiple land uses, and their subsequent impact on plant water uptake. Our preliminary results indicate that continuously disturbed agricultural lands depletes soil moisture at faster rates, which may present challenges in maintaining land productivity in the long term.

How to cite: Fritz, V., Thaasan, T., Williams, A., Udawatta, R., Mendis, S., and Aloysius, N.: Elucidating soil moisture dynamics in agricultural landscapes under varying weather patterns, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5876, 2021.

EGU21-9892 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Response of crop evapotranspiration on the elevated CO2 in Northwest China

Dehai Liao and Jun Niu

The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is changing plant physiology, thus affecting terrestrial hydrological response. A nonlinear stomatal conductance response to carbon dioxide concentration (gs – CO2) was incorporated in the VIC model for better representation of the evapotranspiration (ET) response to the elevated CO2. The annual ET of maize and wheat over the agricultural land in Northwest China was found to decrease by 0.54% and 0.21% during 1980–2010, respectively. Under doubled CO2 concentration (660 ppm), the ET reduction of maize and wheat was 23.3 mm and 8.9 mm, which accounted for 4.3% and 1.8% of the corresponding annual ET. The annual ET reduction of maize, under the four future scenarios (RCP4.5_2040s, RCP4.5_2080s, RCP8.5_2040s, and RCP8.5_2080s), was about 1.1–6.4%, resulted from an ensemble mean of eight general circulation models. The effects of elevated CO2 offset part of ET increase caused by the precipitation and temperature changes. This study has practical implications for precise irrigation. The ET response of maize should be paid more attention for its larger potential in saving irrigation water for the studied region. The elevated CO2 concentration will be beneficial for saving irrigation water to a certain degree.

How to cite: Liao, D. and Niu, J.: Response of crop evapotranspiration on the elevated CO2 in Northwest China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9892, 2021.

EGU21-10089 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Soil water content sensors from laboratory calibration to field monitoring: discrepancies and uncertainties

Angela Gabriela Morales Santos and Reinhard Nolz

Monitoring soil water status is one key option to optimise water use in agriculture. Soil moisture sensors are widely used for investigating available soil water to optimally adapt irrigation scheduling to crop water requirements. Although reliable measurements are subject to proper soil-specific calibration of sensors, meaningful calibration functions are not always available. Another question is the plausibility of soil water monitoring under field conditions. The objective of this study was to calibrate four multi-sensor capacitance probes in the laboratory and  to evaluate the calibrated water content readings under natural conditions in an irrigated field by means of a modelling approach.

The multi-sensor capacitance probes (SM1 by ADCON Telemetry) were of 90 cm length and contained nine sensors (S1 to S9) at 10 cm spacing. The digital output values were given in scaled frequency units (SFU). The laboratory calibration was carried out on sandy loam and sand. Measurements were undertaken by placing the probes inside a PVC tube backfilled with soil at different water contents. Soil samples were collected using metallic cylinders of 250 cm3, from which volumetric water content (θ) was determined gravimetrically. The sensor readings in soil were normalised by using sensor readings in air and water as lower and upper limit, respectively. The pairs of measured θ and normalised SFU were related to each other by curve fitting. For each soil type, eight sensor-specific calibration functions were developed that allowed the calculation of θ in cm3 cm3 from SM1 readings.

After calibration, the SM1 probes were installed in a field in Obersiebenbrunn, Lower Austria, where sandy loam is the main soil. Three of the probes monitored irrigated plots and the fourth a rainfed plot. To obtain reference values, one HydraProbe soil moisture sensor (Stevens Water Monitoring Systems) was installed in 20 cm depth, near each SM1. The average daily θ-values from the S2 (20 cm depth) contained in each SM1 probe were compared to the water fraction collected with the corresponding HydraProbe. Moreover, the SM1 θ-values were used to determine the daily soil water depletion in the root zone (Dr) for a rooting depth of 1 m. The obtained Dr datasets were compared to Dr simulated using CROPWAT 8.0 by FAO.

The field results showed that the SM1 probes were able to reproduce the HydraProbe dynamics of wetting and drying periods during the crop season. Nevertheless, a considerable difference was noted between the sensor measurements. The SM1 overestimated θ in the irrigated plots, whereas it underestimated θ in the rainfed plot. The discrepancies can be attributed mainly to the different physical mechanisms behind the sensors and to the unfeasible reproduction of field bulk density and soil structure in the laboratory. Furthermore, the operational frequency and permittivity response of the SM1 probes should be revised for future versions. The simulation results showed that the observed Dr values were more consistent with CROPWAT Dr results at the end of the simulation period, suggesting that the SM1 required several weeks to consolidate and give representative θ-values for the soil profile.

How to cite: Morales Santos, A. G. and Nolz, R.: Soil water content sensors from laboratory calibration to field monitoring: discrepancies and uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10089, 2021.

EGU21-10557 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Effects of the use of drainage-/ infiltration systems in the Pleistocene uplands of the Netherlands

Janine A. de Wit, Ruud P. Bartholomeus, Gé A.P.H. van den Eertwegh, and Marjolein H.J. van Huijgevoort

The Netherlands is a low-lying, flood prone country, located in a delta. Most Dutch agricultural fields are drained to quickly get rid of excess water to increase crop production. Additionally, the freshwater demand of different sectors (agriculture, industry, drinking water) increases, causing an increased pressure on the groundwater system. The combination of fast drainage and increased use of groundwater for human activities led to declining groundwater tables in the Dutch Pleistocene uplands. Given the changing climate resulting in prolonged dry periods, solutions for water retention are needed to decrease the pressure on the groundwater system to guarantee the future water supply for different sectors.

One of the solutions could be to modify the current drainage systems to drainage-infiltration (DI)-systems with a dual purpose. First, the DI-system stores water during (heavy) rainfall in the soil, but if the risk of flooding increases, the DI-system discharges water. Second, (external) water is actively pumped into the drainage network to raise groundwater tables (subirrigation). Through efficient use of the available external water source (treated waste water, industrial waste water, surface water or groundwater) the pressure on the groundwater system reduces.

We focus on the data and model results of several field experiments using subirrigation conducted in the Dutch Pleistocene uplands (± 2017-2020). The effects of subirrigation on the groundwater table and soil moisture conditions will be shown, including water supply rate and hydrological boundary conditions. We also provide both the set-up and results of field scale model simulations (SWAP; Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model) to i) quantify the impact of subirrigation on all components of the (regional) water balance (including transpiration, drainage and groundwater recharge), ii) quantify crop yields, and iii) optimize the configuration and management of subirrigation systems for different soil types, hydrological boundary conditions, and climate scenarios.  

How to cite: de Wit, J. A., Bartholomeus, R. P., van den Eertwegh, G. A. P. H., and van Huijgevoort, M. H. J.: Effects of the use of drainage-/ infiltration systems in the Pleistocene uplands of the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10557, 2021.

EGU21-13853 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Impact of Winter Soil Processes on Nutrient Leaching in Cold Region Agroecosystems

Konrad Krogstad, Grant Jensen, Mehdi Gharasoo, Laura Hug, David Rudolph, Philippe Van Cappellen, and Fereidoun Rezanezhad

High-latitude cold regions are warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, with the greatest warming occurring during the winter. Warmer winters are associated with shorter periods of snow cover, resulting in more frequent and extensive soil freezing and thawing. Freeze-thaw cycles influence soil chemical, biological, and physical properties and any changes to winter soil processes may impact carbon and nutrients export from affected soils, possibly altering soil health and nearby water quality. These impacts are relevant for agricultural soils and practices in cold regions as they are critical in governing water flows and quality within agroecosystems. In this study, a soil column experiment was conducted to assess the leaching of nutrients from fertilized agricultural soil during the non-growing season. Four soil columns were exposed to a non-growing season temperature and precipitation model and fertilizer amendments were made to two of the columns to determine the efficacy of fall-applied fertilizers and compared to other two unfertilized control columns. Leachates from the soil columns were collected and analyzed for cations and anions. The experiment results showed that a transition from a freeze period to a thaw period resulted in significant loss of chloride (Cl-), sulfate (SO42-) and nitrate (NO3-). Even with low NO3- concentrations in the applied artificial rainwater and fertilizer, high NO3- concentrations (~150 mg l-1) were observed in fertilized column leachates. Simple plug flow reactor model results indicate the high NO3- leachates are found to be due to active nitrification occurring in the upper oxidized portion of the soil columns mimicking overwinter NO3- losses via nitrification in agricultural fields. The low NO3- leachates in unfertilized columns suggest that freeze-thaw cycling had little effect on N mineralization in soil. Findings from this study will ultimately be used to bolster winter soil biogeochemical models by elucidating nutrient fluxes over changing winter conditions to refine best management practices for fertilizer application.

How to cite: Krogstad, K., Jensen, G., Gharasoo, M., Hug, L., Rudolph, D., Van Cappellen, P., and Rezanezhad, F.: Impact of Winter Soil Processes on Nutrient Leaching in Cold Region Agroecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13853, 2021.

EGU21-14381 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Controlled drainage in future climate scenarios

Aleksi Salla, Heidi Salo, and Harri Koivusalo

Climate change is projected to result in higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation and more uneven distribution of precipitation in the northern regions. This requires adaptation in agriculture where both excessively wet and dry cycles pose challenges to cropping. Until now, water management in northern agricultural fields has been resting primarily on efficient drainage, but interest towards more flexible measures has increased.

This study focuses on the hydrological effects of climate change and controlled drainage operated with subsurface drains and an open collector ditch in an agricultural field. The objective was to computationally estimate how groundwater levels and water balance respond to controlled drainage and open ditch scenarios in climate conditions projected to take place in Finland during this century. A hydrological model FLUSH was used to simulate the hydrology of an experimental field in Sievi, Northern Ostrobothnia, Finland during years 1970–2100. Down-scaled climate projections from EURO-CORDEX (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6) were used as meteorological input. The temporal development of the field hydrology and the effects of controlled drainage were examined by dividing the time series into four subsequent time intervals (historical period and three future periods).

Two different control scenarios were studied. Drainage intensity was reduced during growing seasons in summers (Jun.–Aug.) and either in autumn (Oct.–Nov.) or from autumn to spring (Oct.–Mar.). During these periods, groundwater table was on average 17–29 cm, 28–30 cm and 36–40 cm higher, respectively, in the control scenarios when compared to conventional subsurface drainage in different study intervals and emission scenarios. The implementation of controlled drainage reduced annual drain discharge by 21–46 mm. The projected temporal evolution of the effects of controlled drainage on groundwater levels and annual drain discharges were not monotonous, but the projected effects were larger during the future periods when compared to the historical period. Controlled drainage effect on groundwater levels was seen during both dry and wet years. Controlled drainage was assessed to be an effective method to control field water processes currently and in the future decades. The open collector ditch lowered groundwater levels within a distance of 115 m from the ditch.

How to cite: Salla, A., Salo, H., and Koivusalo, H.: Controlled drainage in future climate scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14381, 2021.

EGU21-14632 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4 | Highlight

Runoff regime after heavy rainfall events in view of changing climate in a beech stand at the LTER-CWN site “Klausenleopoldsdorf”

Gollobich Günther, Gartner Karl, and Riedel Sebastian

The Austrian Research Infrastructure LTER-CWN (Long-Term Ecosystem Research Infrastructure for Carbon, Water and Nitrogen) aims for measuring extreme events in high temporal resolution. Within the framework of this project a measuring weir was installed near Klausen-Leopoldsdorf (Lower Austria) in order to collect high-resolution data of stream-water quantity and quality. The measuring weir is located in the western part of the „Wienerwald“, the north-eastern edge of the Alps, at about 475m a.s.l. Especially in the year 2020 this area showed humid weather conditions with an annual precipitation of 904mm. The observed catchment has an area of about 46 hectares. The dominating soil types in the catchment are Planosoils and Stagnosols. The observations at the weir with a time resolution of 5 minutes started in February 2019. The plot was set up for recordings of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and water fluxes theparameters TOC-N, DOC-N, NO3, water level, water temperature, electrical conductivity, turbidity and organic matter values being measured. To answer one of the main research issues - the impact of heavy rainfall events on the runoff regime of a catchment within a dense beech forest in relation to the soil, specific time, the influence of interception and corresponding water level in the observed river - a water level sensor (OTT) and a multifunction spectrolyzer (S:CAN) were installed at the weir. During the measuring period 2019/2020 11 heavy rainfall events (corresponding to more than 20mm daily precipitation sum) were recorded. Due to the small catchment area the average time interval between heavy rainfall events and the corresponding increase of the water level at the measuring weir is about 2 hours. The time and intensity of the rainfall event together with the level of soil moisture before the precipitation event are the key factors for the amount of runoff. Additionally, other measured parameters like the turbidity or the electrical conductivity of the water correspond very well with the amount of runoff. Data with such a high time resolution will help to get a better understanding of extreme events and the consequences of these events in respect to climate change.

How to cite: Günther, G., Karl, G., and Sebastian, R.: Runoff regime after heavy rainfall events in view of changing climate in a beech stand at the LTER-CWN site “Klausenleopoldsdorf”, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14632, 2021.

EGU21-14928 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Advancing the selection of soil hydraulic property models for soil-crop modelling

Tobias Karl David Weber, Thilo Streck, Sebastian Gayler, Joachim Ingwersen, and Efstathios Diamantopoulos

EGU21-15844 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4 | Highlight

Historical and projected future hydroclimatic risk on seasonal yield in the irrigated rice paddies of Malaysia

Zed Zulkafli, Nurfarhana Raffar, Mukhtar Jibril Abdi, Amirparsa Jajarmizadeh, Mohamad Shahmi Ahmad Shukri, Farrah Melissa Muharam, Khairudin Nurulhuda, Balqis Mohamed Rehan, Jing Xiang Chung, Juneng Liew, and Fredolin Tangang

Food security is an increasing threat to rice-consuming nations in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we present a framework for analysing  the historical and projecting the future relationship between climate variability and rice yield in the context of weather index insurance. The case study is the Muda rice granary, the largest rice paddy planting area in Malaysia producing approximately 40% of the national output. First, correlation and linear regression are used to explore the response of seasonal rice yield to various average and extreme precipitation, temperature and streamflow-based indices over a 16 year period between 2001 to 2016.  The highest Pearson correlation (r) and coefficient of determination (R2) values were obtained with June minimum temperature in the dry season, and December maximum 1 day precipitation and  January mean streamflow in the wet season. The results suggest that rice yield is most at risk from the impact of hydroclimatic variability and change during the flowering and maturity stages of crop growth. Next, findings from the statistical analysis are integrated with hydro-crop simulation of the 4,515 km2 catchment area, using a calibrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected Regional Climate Model output from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South East Asia (CORDEX-SEA). The output is finally used to construct projected future risk profiles for rice production in the area. 

How to cite: Zulkafli, Z., Raffar, N., Abdi, M. J., Jajarmizadeh, A., Ahmad Shukri, M. S., Muharam, F. M., Nurulhuda, K., Rehan, B. M., Chung, J. X., Liew, J., and Tangang, F.: Historical and projected future hydroclimatic risk on seasonal yield in the irrigated rice paddies of Malaysia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15844, 2021.

EGU21-16395 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.4

Developing a Machine Learning Algorithm to Identify Hot Moments Using Mass Balance Approach at Watershed Scale

Thakshajini Thaasan, Phung Quang, and Noel Aloysius

HS2.1.5 – Advances in forest hydrology

EGU21-909 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5 | Highlight

Combining LIDAR-derived Digital Terrain Indices and Machine Learning, for High Resolution National-scale Soil Moisture Mapping of the Swedish Forest Landscape.

Anneli M. Ågren, Johannes Larson, Siddhartho S. Paul, Hjalmar Laudon, and William Lidberg

To meet the sustainable development goals and enable protection of surface waters, there is a strong need to plan and align forest management with the needs of the environment. The number one tool to succeed in sustainable spatial planning is accurate and detailed maps. High resolution soil moisture mapping over spatial large extent remains a consistent challenge despite its substantial value in practical forestry and land management. Here we present a novel technique combining LIDAR-derived terrain indices and machine learning to model soil moisture at 2 m spatial resolution across the Swedish forest landscape with high accuracy. We used field data from about 20,000 sites across Sweden to train and evaluate multiple machine learning (ML) models. The predictor features included a suite of terrain indices generated from national LIDAR digital elevation model and other ancillary environmental features, including surficial geology, climate, land use information, allowing for adjustment of soil moisture maps to regional/local conditions. In our analysis, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) outperformed the other tested ML methods (Kappa = 0.69, MCC= 0.68), namely Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Naïve Bayes classification. The depth to water index, topographic wetness index, and wetlands derived from Swedish property maps were the most important predictors for all models. With the presented technique, it was possible to generate a multiclass model with 3 classes with Kappa and MCC of 0.58. Besides the classified moisture maps, we also investigated the potential of producing a continuous map from dry to wet soils. We argue that the probability of a pixel being classified as wet from the 2-class model can be used as an index of soil moisture from 0% – dry to 100% – wet and that such maps hold more valuable information for practical forest management than classified maps.

The soil moisture map was developed to support the need for land use management optimization by incorporating landscape sensitivity and hydrological connectivity into a framework that promotes the protection of soil and water quality. The soil moisture map can be used to address fundamental considerations, such as;

  • (i) locating areas where different land use practices can be conducted with minimal impacts on water quality;
  • (ii) guiding the construction of vital infrastructure in high flood risk areas;
  • (iii) designing riparian protection zones to optimize the protection of water quality and biodiversity.

How to cite: Ågren, A. M., Larson, J., Paul, S. S., Laudon, H., and Lidberg, W.: Combining LIDAR-derived Digital Terrain Indices and Machine Learning, for High Resolution National-scale Soil Moisture Mapping of the Swedish Forest Landscape., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-909, 2021.

EGU21-12345 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Water stress and their implications on the ecohydrology of rainforests

Chandrakant Singh, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Ingo Fetzer, Johan Rockström, and Ruud van der Ent

Rainforests have been a major controller of local and global climate by maintaining carbon stocks and regulating global water cycle. However, the water cycle is increasingly impacted by climate change and ongoing deforestation, which forces rainforest ecosystems to adapt differently to increasing water-stress. To understand future rainforest dynamics towards changing hydroclimate, their resilience capacity to future changes and estimating potential tipping points, it is detrimental that we quantify moisture available to vegetation. However, due to the physical limitations in quantifying subsurface moisture availability of terrestrial ecosystems at continental scales, only rainfall is considered a primary control variable to represent the forest's ecohydrological status. In the present study, using remote-sensing derived rootzone storage capacity (Sr), we analyze the water-stress and drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transects in South America and Africa at different tree cover densities. We further classified the ecosystem's adaptability to water-stress into four classes: lowlymoderatelyhighly water-stressed forest, and savanna-grassland regime using empirical and statistical analysis. Based on these analyses, we can show that forests subsequently invest in their rooting strategy and modify their above-ground forest cover in response to the water-stress experienced by it. We observed that remote sensing-based rootzone storage capacity reveals important subsoil forest dynamics and can act as an important hydroclimatic stress indicator for vegetation. Monitoring of rootzone storage capacity helps open new paths to understanding the eco-hydrological state, ecosystem resilience, and adaptation dynamics in a rapidly changing climate.

 

Source: Singh, C. et al. (2020). Rootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 124021. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc377

How to cite: Singh, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Fetzer, I., Rockström, J., and van der Ent, R.: Water stress and their implications on the ecohydrology of rainforests, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12345, 2021.

EGU21-11991 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

How forests change transit times of transpiration, evaporation and streamflow – a modeling approach

Ingo Heidbüchel, Jie Yang, and Jan H. Fleckenstein

In a recent paper we investigated how different catchment and climate properties influence transit time distributions. This was done by employing a physically-based spatially explicit 3D model in a virtual catchment running many different scenarios with different combinations of catchment and climate properties. We found that the velocity distribution of water fluxes through a catchment is more sensitive to certain properties while other factors appear less relevant. Now we expanded the approach by adding vegetation to the model and thus introducing new hydrologic processes (transpiration and evaporation) to the simulated water cycle. On the one hand we wanted to know how these new processes would influence transit times of the water fluxes to the stream, on the other hand we were interested in how exactly differences in the vegetation itself (e.g. rooting depth and leaf area index) would alter the various flux velocities (including transit times of transpiration and evaporation). It was very interesting to observe that streamflow in forested areas appeared to become older on average. We also found that transpiration was generally younger if the vegetation had shallower roots and/or a larger leaf area index. The biggest difference in the age of evaporation was detected for different amounts of subsequent precipitation (evaporation was generally younger in a wetter climate). In conclusion, we found that forests influence the age of the different water fluxes within a catchment. According to our results the overall hydrologic cycle is decelerated when adding vegetation to a model that otherwise only simulates evaporation.

Still, in order to make meaningful predictions on the age of hydrologic fluxes, it is not constructive to single out specific catchment and climate properties. The multitude of influences from different parameters makes it very challenging to find rules and underlying principles in the integrated catchment response. Therefore it is necessary to look at the individual parameters and their potential interactions and interdependencies in a bottom-up approach.

How to cite: Heidbüchel, I., Yang, J., and Fleckenstein, J. H.: How forests change transit times of transpiration, evaporation and streamflow – a modeling approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11991, 2021.

EGU21-15950 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Developing a novel monitoring system to determine rainfall interception from different forest types

Matt Cooper, Max Dickens, Sopan Patil, and Huw Thomas

Natural Flood Management (NFM) seeks to utilise natural processes within the landscape to reduce flood risk and is increasingly being viewed as a sustainable, cost effective, and complementary addition to flood defence infrastructure.  One NFM measure is to increase the proportion of forested lands within catchments draining to the communities at risk. Tree cover has good potential to reduce flood risk by increasing canopy evaporation, enhancing below and above ground flood storage and slowing the flow of water towards streams.  However, the extent to which these mechanisms are superior for forestry, compared to other land uses, and how they vary throughout the year and for different forest types remains difficult to predict, which is a major gap in our ability to quantify how forest cover can help reduce flood risk.

 

Here, we present a study that utilises LoRaWAN, a developing wireless sensor network technology, to provide real time collection of canopy interception and streamflow data at the Pennal catchment in Wales, UK.  LoRaWAN is an emerging Low Power Wide Area Network (LPWAN) protocol designed for Internet of Things (IoT) applications. The capability of LoRaWAN to operate under harsh attenuation and interference conditions make it well suited to the forest catchment area which is characterised by dense vegetation and varied topography.

 

This study will utilise a network of tipping bucket rain gauges and stream flow monitors distributed in different forest types and densities. The rain gauges and water level monitors are the end devices (IoT things) in the network which perform a direct communication with LoRaWAN Gateways, from which the data is ‘pushed’ to a server for storing and assimilation. The data will be used to develop and validate a coupled canopy and soil hydrology model.  This will guide forest management and aid in quantifying the effects of natural flood management techniques, initially within the Pennal catchment, with a view to expanding to the regional scale.

How to cite: Cooper, M., Dickens, M., Patil, S., and Thomas, H.: Developing a novel monitoring system to determine rainfall interception from different forest types, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15950, 2021.

EGU21-10525 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Soil Moisture and Streamflow Relationship in Forested Hillslope: A Perspective on their Hysteretic Behavior.

Bassey Bassey Friday, Eunhyung Lee, and Sanghyun Kim

The hysteretic behavior between soil moisture and streamflow has received only little attention in the context of hillslope hydrological processes, despite the overarching role it plays in the understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of hillslope responses. In this study, hydro-meteorological data were collected daily on bi-hourly basis from 2009 to 2013 over 56 soil moisture measuring points at various depths (10, 30, and 60 cm) with 147 distinct storm events chosen for investigation. A bivariate analysis approach was implemented to characterize 8,232 hysteretic behaviors between streamflow and soil moisture with a view to exploring its patterns and uniformities using data obtained in the following timescale - the whole period of campaign, seasonally and storm event. In addition, hydrological control features such as antecedent soil moisture, rainfall intensity and duration, soil depth and hillslope positions were examined to establish the degree of control it poses on hillslope responses. Our investigation showed three dominant responses – clockwise, counter-clockwise and no response. Clockwise response which implied that streamflow peaked before soil moisture, governed the entire period of campaign with the frequency of responses significantly decreasing as depth increases, except for some downslope points located around the riparian zone. Furthermore, distinct variation in the hysteretic behavior of the hillslope under seasonal timescale was observed, with clockwise responses dominating summer and fall season whereas counter clockwise responses prevailed in the spring season. Our findings further reveals that antecedent soil moisture condition and soil depth were the major drivers that influenced the general response of the hillslope.

How to cite: Bassey Friday, B., Lee, E., and Kim, S.: Soil Moisture and Streamflow Relationship in Forested Hillslope: A Perspective on their Hysteretic Behavior., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10525, 2021.

EGU21-6419 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Hydrological resilience to forest fire in the subarctic Canadian Shield

Christopher Spence, Newell Hedstrom, Suzanne Tank, William Quinton, David Olefeldt, Stefan Goodman, and Nicole Dion

Forest fires are becoming more frequent and larger in the subarctic Canadian Shield, so understanding the effect of fire on catchment scale water budgets is becoming increasingly important.  The objective of this study was to determine the water budget impact of a forest fire that partially burned a ~450 km2 subarctic Canadian Shield basin.  Water budget components were measured in a pair of catchments; one burnt and another unburnt. Burnt and unburnt areas had comparable net radiation, but ground thaw was deeper in burned areas.  Snowpacks were deeper in burns. Differences in streamflow between the catchments were within measurement uncertainty.  Enhanced winter streamflow from the burned watershed was evident by icing growth at the streamflow gauge location, which was not observed in the unburned catchment.  A new framework to assess hydrological resilience to forest fire across the region revealed that watersheds with higher bedrock and open water fractions are more resilient to hydrological change after fire in the subarctic shield, and resilience decreases with increasingly wet conditions.  

How to cite: Spence, C., Hedstrom, N., Tank, S., Quinton, W., Olefeldt, D., Goodman, S., and Dion, N.: Hydrological resilience to forest fire in the subarctic Canadian Shield, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6419, 2021.

EGU21-7023 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Stand dynamics and species composition control long-term post-fire trends in evapotranspiration and streamflow from South-eastern Australia’s Temperate Eucalyptus forests

Assaf Inbar, Richard Benyon, Patrick Lane, Shyanika Lakmali, Shane Haydon, and Gary Sheridan

Most of the water that ends up in Melbourne’s water supply catchments originates from wet Eucalyptus forests that are dominated by Eucalyptus regnans, the tallest known angiosperm on earth. Studies had shown that catchments that are dominated by these forests can experience a significant long-term (>100 years) reduction in streamflow after a stand-replacing fire, which was attributed to higher water-use of the dense overstory regrowth. However, despite several lines of evidence, the direction, extent and duration of post-fire hydrological behaviour vary significantly between catchments and between fire events. Here we propose that this variability is caused by initial stocking density and species composition after the fire, and the climatic conditions that prevail during forest regeneration that affect tree growth and mortality rates. In order to test the hypothesis, we formulated an ecohydrological model that simulates hydrology, growth and forest dynamics of E. regnans and Acacia dealbata, which are known to compete for resources during the initial stages of vegetation recovery. The new model shows high skill in predicting long-term streamflow when compared to observations using multiple sources of data. Simulation analysis shows that the direction, extent and duration of post-fire hydrological behaviour are sensitive to initial stocking density and to the relative abundance of species that regenerate after the fire, which influence the rate of self-thinning during stand development. Furthermore, simulation results show that the observed long-term reduction in streamflow is less likely to occur when the forest would have been less dense before the fire, which theoretically could only occur when a high proportion of the short-lived A. Dealbata regenerated after the previous fire. This highlights the importance of including mechanisms that control the effect of species composition on forest dynamics when modelling the effect of possible future climatic scenarios on water yield.

How to cite: Inbar, A., Benyon, R., Lane, P., Lakmali, S., Haydon, S., and Sheridan, G.: Stand dynamics and species composition control long-term post-fire trends in evapotranspiration and streamflow from South-eastern Australia’s Temperate Eucalyptus forests, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7023, 2021.

EGU21-15217 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Litter and deadwood water retention processes in a temperate mixed forest

Marius G. Floriancic, Scott T. Allen, and Peter Molnar

Countless studies have demonstrated ways in which forests and trees affect catchment water balances. Water balance differences between forested and non-forested landscapes are often attributed to characteristics related to trees’ ability to take up and transpire water, as well as their ability to intercept precipitation. However, another potentially important characteristic of forests that has been largely overlooked in hydrologic studies is the retention and accumulation of debris, litter and deadwood on the forest floor. Here we leverage ongoing measurements at the new hillslope laboratory “Waldlabor” in Zurich, Switzerland, where water retention in forest litter, deadwood and the top soil layer has been investigated using frequent field campaigns and innovative new sensing techniques.

Several approaches were used to determine the maximum storage capacity as well as the storage dynamics of different types and layers of litter. In-lab saturation experiments revealed the maximum storage capacity of various litter types (i.e., leaf and needle litter). Those values were also supported with field pre- and post- rainfall sampling campaigns to determine in-situ litter storage dynamics, as well as to understand the interplay between litter interception and soil-water recharge. Importantly, recharge was often substantially smaller at plots with litter, compared to those without litter. The storage and water retention capacity of deadwood samples was measured in the field by logging the diurnal differences in deadwood weight over a six month period. Dew and fog deposition during the night led to larger water availability for evaporation during the day. We measured increased humidity at sensors in the forest at 1 and 3m heights respectively, compared to the humidity outside the forest. Daily weight measurements over eight weeks of 40 deadwood pieces at our forest site revealed differences in the storage capacity depended on the degree of decomposition. Additionally, we found that water stored in forest floor spruce cones (daily measurements of 20 pieces) actively contributed to evaporation fluxes.

The combination of continuous sensor measurements (soil moisture, deadwood water content), field measurements (litter and deadwood grab samples) as well as laboratory work (saturation experiments) revealed the water storage and retention capacity of litter and deadwood in a typical temperate mixed forest and their contribution to evaporation. These measurements are one component of the new ETH Zürich “Waldlabor” research infrastructure, which also includes measurements of precipitation, xylem water, soil water, groundwater, and discharge amounts, isotope ratios, and other chemical characteristics.

How to cite: Floriancic, M. G., Allen, S. T., and Molnar, P.: Litter and deadwood water retention processes in a temperate mixed forest, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15217, 2021.

EGU21-14428 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Water accessed differently by Larix decidua according to an alpine gradient

Natalie Ceperley, Rokhaya Ba, Harsh Beria, Anthony Michelon, Joshua Larsen, Torsten Venneman, and Bettina Schaefli

Vegetation is the primary connection between land and atmosphere, thus the main player mediating the consequences of a changing climate on land cover and hydrology. A protected alpine catchment, with a larch grove (Larix decidua) at the upper limit of the forested area, the Vallon de Nant (Vaud alps, 1200 – 3050 m. a.s.l.), was chosen as a study site in parallel with ongoing hydrological observation. We analyzed the stable isotopes of water, δ18O and δ2H, in the xylem extracted from samples of 10 trees in 2 transects just above and below 1500 m. a.s.l. over the course of the 2017 and 2018 growing seasons.  We compared isotopic ratios withconcurrent observations of isotopes in precipitation, stream, soil water, and groundwater.  Isotopic content of xylem water was found to be fairly consistent, independent of the date within the season, and closely resembled shallow soil water, suggesting that recent precipitation dominated the water source.   Our results support that vegetation could experience a drought due to low levels of rainfall before the streamflow is impacted. Furthermore, they affirm current discussions that water source is elevation dependent for trees in mountain ecosystems, with summer precipitation being favored by higher elevation trees, such as these. This preference has significant implications when we project current changes of quantities of rain falling as snow versus rain in the future. And more importantly, changes the view of forest from that of a water “user” to that of a store and player in complex feedback mechanisms.

How to cite: Ceperley, N., Ba, R., Beria, H., Michelon, A., Larsen, J., Venneman, T., and Schaefli, B.: Water accessed differently by Larix decidua according to an alpine gradient, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14428, 2021.

In water-limited ecosystems such as those encountered on Mediterranean mountainous areas of shallow soil, climate-induced changes in precipitation regime are expected to influence the ability of remnants of native forests to resist or adapt to predicted reduced precipitation scenarios. The objective of this work was to understand the role of precipitation and physiographic ecosystem properties in woody cover spatial variability of Mediterranean sclerophyllous forests located within main protected areas of the Sardinia Island (Italy), an excellent reference condition for Mediterranean hydrologic studies due to the relatively low urbanization and human activities. Analyzed forests differ in altitude (0-1500 slm.), mean annual precipitation (450-1200 mm) over 95 years of daily data, exposition, dominant species, density, and soil thickness. Forests have been broken down into 30 * 30 m plots based on their type. Using data from the Landsat satellite sensors, temporal trends in the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were quantified. We related these trends with different environmental variables to understand the effects of the variation of precipitation regimes and forest type on woody cover density. A significant direct effect of drought has been observed in the dry 2017 in all forests resulting in a significantly reduced NDVI values especially on south facing slopes plots and low soil thickness plots. On the contrary forest canopy were more stable on mesic habitats demonstrating that the availability of soil humidity is more important than solar radiation. Finally, the lowest values of NDVI were observed in semi-arid sclerophyllous forest dominated by species tolerant to drought and very thin stony soil layers. The identification of the factors that contribute the most to the increase in the vulnerability and the decrease of tree cover density of forests will allow to optimize planning and management strategies also under further drier climate changes prospective.

How to cite: Cipolla, S. S. and Montaldo, N.: Patterns in woody vegetation cover across forests of a main Mediterranean island in relation to precipitation regime., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14964, 2021.

Previous research has indicated that agricultural land use can reduce water quality in streams. This includes: 1) an increase in suspended solids (SS) due to elevated erosion and 2) shifts in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) particularly due to different C:N between agricultural crops and natural vegetation. We examine spatial and temporal dynamics of SS and DOC in four rivers, located in an agriculturally impacted watershed in SW Ohio, as they flow from agricultural land cover through a naturally forested State Park. Nineteen surface water sites were sampled bimonthly from December 2019 to December 2020. Results will be presented to determine if a forested state park improved the water quality in SW Ohio. We will further discuss how the work done in SW Ohio could be replicated in other intensive agricultural areas of Europe with similar climate patterns.

How to cite: Rintsch, E., Farthing, T., and Grudzinski, B.: Effects of a Forested State Park on Suspended Solid and Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentrations in an Agriculturally Impacted Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-763, 2021.

EGU21-12618 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.5

Assessing a seasonal calibration approach for a small forest catchment in a Mediterranean region North Central Portugal

Svenja van Schelve, Diana C. S. Vieira, Jan J. Keizer, Martinho António Santos Martins, and Anne-Karine Boulet

Hydrological modeling is nowadays a widely used decision making tool to predict watershed behavior in forest areas. A commonly used processed based watershed model is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT provides comprehensive forest management operations and offers a diversity of adjustable input parameters to simulate complex processes inside a catchment. Nevertheless, one well-known obstacle of SWAT is the poor model performance during dry periods, characterized by low discharge and/or a dried-out catchment, causes by a possible seasonal dependency of input parameter related to climate conditions. Model predictions inherently goes along with uncertainties, linked to a diversity of unknown input parameters and assumptions. Therefore, to minimize model predictions uncertainties the use of an appropriate calibration technique is indispensable. During a conventional calibration process with SWAT model, inputs do not consider seasonal variabilities, by generally using a single parameter set for simulating discharge in a catchment. Although some studies have shown, a significant improvement while using different parameter sets, according to a wet or dry season [1, 2]. However, there is still a knowledge gap in applying such season-based calibration approach, namely under which conditions such approach could improve model predictions. The aim of this study is to determine the parameters which seem to have higher influence under seasonal climate conditions in contrast to season independent parameters, in a semi-managed eucalyptus forest catchment in North Central Portugal. We will use different parameter sets according to a wet and dry period, to improve the discharge simulation and make a model performance more robust. Further to optimize different model scenarios, such as transport processes, that depending on seasonal flow regimes. The climate of the study area is a warm- summer Mediterranean climate dominated by dry, warm and long summers. The hydrological dataset used for the calibration and validation period comprises the hydrological years 2010 to 2016, with a local metrological dataset and discharge measurements from the outlet of the catchment. Global sensitive analysis (GSA) is performed with the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (FAST) in SWATplusR [3], for following defined cases, (i) over the complete data period (conventional), (ii) the wet and the (iii) dry season dataset. Whereas for the calibration and the validation period, the dataset is divided by a 4-year calibration and a 2-year validation period. Respectively, a conventional and a season-based calibration is done while using SWATplusR. The GSA results show that the most influencing parameters for the conventional dataset are the curve number (CN2) with a sensitivity of 0.65, followed by the available water capacity of the soil layer (SOL_AWC) with a sensitivity of 0.008. When using the dry season dataset the sensitivity of the CN2 parameter decreases by a factor of 0.45 and SOL_AWC increases by a factor of 5, confirming the hypothesis of an input dependency on seasonal climate conditions.

[1] Zhang, D. et al., 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.01.018
[2] Muleta, M.K. et al., 2012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000421
[3] Schürz, C., 2019. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3373859

How to cite: van Schelve, S., Vieira, D. C. S., Keizer, J. J., Martins, M. A. S., and Boulet, A.-K.: Assessing a seasonal calibration approach for a small forest catchment in a Mediterranean region North Central Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12618, 2021.

HS2.1.6 – Mountain hydrology under global change: monitoring, modelling and adaptation

EGU21-4675 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Comparison and validation of the Pyrenean hydrological cycle simulated by different modeling approaches using in-situ and remote sensing data.

Pere Quintana-Seguí, Yvan Caballero, Roxelane Cakir, Benoît Dewandel, Youen Grusson, Jorge Jódar, Javier Luis Lambán, Sandra Lanini, Pierre Le Cointe, María del Carmen Llasat, José Miguel Sánchez-Pérez, Sabine Sauvage, Leticia Palazón, Ane Zabaleta, and Santiago Beguería

In the Mediterranean, mountainous areas are an important source of water resources. Not only do mountains generate most of runoff, but they also store water in soils, as groundwater in aquifers and as snowpack which melts in spring where it can be diverted and used for agriculture. However, climate change and local anthropic processes are changing the behaviour of the Mediterranean mountainous basins, which is adding uncertainty to water management in an area where water management is already difficult. This is the case of the Pyrenees range between France, Spain and Andorra.

Hydrological modelling is a valuable tool in order to quantify the continental water cycle and, hence, the water resources as green and blue water. It helps  understanding the underlying processes, simulating variables that are difficult or impossible to observe (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack, or land evaporation), and performing experiments impossible to conduct in the real-world (e.g.: fix the land use in order to assess the impacts of climate change only). However, all that valuable contributions are subjected to model uncertainty,  an issue that should not be neglected and carefully assessed.

The PIRAGUA project aims at assessing the water resources of the Pyrenees in the past and in the future. To this aim, different models are being deployed and compared with past dataset in a first step (period September 1979 to August 2014). At the scale of the whole Pyrenees, we use the physical-based and semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and the fully distributed, physically-based, hydrological chain SASER (based on the SURFEX LSM). Furthermore, potential groundwater recharge is also evaluated using a simple water balance approach (RECHARGE). In some selected river basins, including karst systems, the GIS-BALAN hydrogeological model has also been applied. The agreement and disagreement of the models with the observations (when available), and between them, will allow a the detection and quantification of the main sources of uncertainty.

In this study, we have first validated the simulated streamflow at a selection of non-influenced gauging stations. Not only have we used the usual scores (i.e. KGE), but we have also validated the model temporal trends, comparing them to the observed ones. This will allow attributing (assess the link with climate change) trend changes in influenced stations, where models simulate the natural flow and observations also include human processes. KGE comparisons shown that the models are able to correctly simulate daily streamflow on most natural sub-basins. Then, the main fluxes (evaporation, drainage and runoff) and stocks (soil moisture and snowpack) of the models have been compared at the sub-basin scale, showing the rate of agreement between them. Finally, some variables have been compared to remote sensing products (evaporation, soil moisture and snow cover), in order to expand the validation to other relevant variables.

How to cite: Quintana-Seguí, P., Caballero, Y., Cakir, R., Dewandel, B., Grusson, Y., Jódar, J., Lambán, J. L., Lanini, S., Le Cointe, P., Llasat, M. C., Sánchez-Pérez, J. M., Sauvage, S., Palazón, L., Zabaleta, A., and Beguería, S.: Comparison and validation of the Pyrenean hydrological cycle simulated by different modeling approaches using in-situ and remote sensing data., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4675, 2021.

EGU21-386 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

The Resiliency of High-Altitude Watershed to Dry Condition Under the Changing Climate

Eshrat Fatima, Akif Rahim, Shabeh ul Hasson, Mujtaba Hassan, Farhan Aziz, and Muhammad Yousaf

The hydrological cycle is generally known as a recurring result of various forms of water movement and changes in its physical state in nature over a specific area of ​​the earth (river or Lake Basin, a continent, or the whole earth). It is most likely that the increase in global warming will intensively affect the hydrological cycle regionally and globally which will ultimately affect the ecosystem, public health, and municipal water demand. Therefore, the resiliency of watershed to extreme events play a vital role to understand the health of the watershed. This study aims to quantify the resiliency of the Hunza watershed, which lies in the Western Karakoram, to dry conditions under the climate change projections i.e. RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We used a fully distributed hydrological model SPHY to simulate the impact of climate change on future water availability. The SPHY Model was calibration and validation for the time periods (1994-2000) and (2001-2006) respectively. The performance of the model was tested through statistical analysis such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), percentage of bias (PBIAS), and root mean square error (RMSE).To develop future water scenarios, the daily temperature, and precipitation data were obtained from the CORDEX South Asia domain under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The empirical quantile mapping method was used for the correction of the daily temperature and precipitation biases under the regional scale. The model was run for near (2007-2036), mid (2037-2066), and far-future (2067-2096) climate projections i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The resilience of watershed defined as the speed of recovery from dry conditions. The monthly Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) was used as an indicator of the dry condition. The resiliency of the watershed determines with the threshold levels of -0.5 and -1.0. The analysis indicates that the resiliency of the watershed has increased from 0.3 to 0.5 in the future under the RCP of 2.6. The value of resilience under the RCP of 4.5 is 0.29, 0.45, and 0.52 for near, mid, and far futures respectively. Under extreme climate conditions RCP 8.5, the watershed resilience is 0.2 in the near future and 0.3 in the mid-future, and 0.6 for the far future. Therefore, it can be concluded that the health of the reservoirs will be very good in the future to stabilize the drought.  

How to cite: Fatima, E., Rahim, A., ul Hasson, S., Hassan, M., Aziz, F., and Yousaf, M.: The Resiliency of High-Altitude Watershed to Dry Condition Under the Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-386, 2021.

EGU21-998 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Climate change impact on the hydrological functioning of the mountain lakes: a conceptual framework

Daniel Amaro Medina and Cherie Westbrook

Mountain lakes are distinctive water bodies that not only serve as a crucial water resource for the inhabitants of the upland regions but also as an important destination for millions of tourists who are attracted by their beauty. Mountain lakes are fragile water bodies that are experiencing changes in their hydrological processes owing to global warming. Understanding the consequences is important as it can help identify whether climate change causes degradations in lake hydrological functioning. The interactions of hydrological processes in mountain lakes with external drivers are usually hard to explain explicitly owing to their complexity. To deal with that problem, scholars develop conceptual frameworks. The focus was on the Canadian Rocky Mountains where 5155 lakes were identified using GIS. To identify factors influencing lake hydrological function and their sensitivity to changing climate, a literature review was undertaken. Identified in the literature review were 13 natural drivers that reflected climate change impacts to lake hydrological functioning and 38 additional sub-factors that characterize the drivers. Using these factors, a conceptual framework for mountain lake hydrological functioning was developed. The major limitation to thorough testing of the conceptual framework was a small number of observations for lakes in the research area. Nevertheless, the conceptual framework is flexible and should be tested across many mountainous regions worldwide. Overall, the conducted research stresses the problem of limited hydrological understanding of lakes in the Canadian Rockies and presents a useful framework of the complex interactions of natural drivers and intra-lake processes under rising temperatures.

How to cite: Amaro Medina, D. and Westbrook, C.: Climate change impact on the hydrological functioning of the mountain lakes: a conceptual framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-998, 2021.

Mountain watersheds often act as water towers that supply water to large human populations in valley aquifers. Therefore, their susceptibility and resilience to droughts are of outsize importance particularly, as global climate change projections suggest more frequent droughts in the future. Previous studies have examined the impact of climate warming on mountain hydrology, but they have not explicitly linked impacts of multi-year droughts to subsurface water storage. In this study, we use the 2012-2015 California drought to examine the mechanisms via which subsurface flow paths and storage affect the hydrologic response to drought in the Kaweah River watershed in the Sierra Nevada mountains. We build and test an integrated hydrologic model using the coupled land surface-groundwater model ParFlow.CLM. The model is able to simulate the observed hydrology with a high degree of accuracy. Results reveal that mountain aquifer recharge sourced from snowmelt (MARsnow) is the primary input to the groundwater system, and much of the simulated streamflow. We find that increases in air temperature and decreases in precipitation during the drought reduces snow water equivalent (SWE), and causes a 73% reduction in MARsnow compared to the pre-drought period. Reduction in MARsnow initially results in subsurface storage losses along the ridgelines and areas of low topographic convergence. Topography induced draining of the regolith storage causes groundwater depletion and provides supplemental water to maintain streamflow and riparian evapotranspiration (ET). As the drought develops, drying of the subsurface alters lateral connectivity of the shallow groundwater system, and reduces streamflow and riparian ET. We apply machine learning models to examine the spatial patterns in groundwater storage depletion and recovery. These models reveal that topography induced draining and filling of subsurface storage in response to drought and precipitation recovery, respectively, is the key control on the streamflow response in this mountainous watershed. Warmer conditions and more frequent droughts that reduce SWE in the future are likely to amplify this cycle.

How to cite: Schreiner-McGraw, A. and Ajami, H.: Subsurface mechanisms control hydrologic response to a multi-year drought in a mountainous watershed with a Mediterranean climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1784, 2021.

Mountain System Recharge (MSR) is one of the main components of recharge in many arid and semi-arid aquifers, yet the mechanisms of MSR in high-elevation mountain ranges are poorly understood. The complexity of recharge processes and the lack of groundwater observations in mountain catchments contribute to this problem. MSR consists of two distinct pathways: 1) mountain bedrock aquifer recharge (MAR) consists of snowmelt or rainfall derived infiltration into the mountain bedrock, which either discharges to streams as baseflow or reaches an alluvial aquifer in an adjacent valley via lateral subsurface flow referred to as mountain block recharge (MBR), and 2) Mountain front recharge (MFR) consists of streamflow infiltration at the mountain front. Here, we apply streamflow recession analysis across 11 anthropogenically unaffected catchments in the Sierra Nevada to derive seasonally distinct storage-discharge functions and quantify MAR in response to changes in precipitation. Median annual recharge efficiencies (ratio of annual MAR to precipitation) range from 4 to 28% and can reach up to 60% during the wettest years on record. We implement a global sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that significantly impact MAR rates. Results illustrate that MAR estimates are mostly sensitive to the filter parameters for streamflow data selection used during the recession analysis, and the number of dry days after a rain event where streamflow data are excluded has the greatest impact. Our results demonstrate that storage-discharge functions are useful for quantifying groundwater recharge in mountainous catchments under perennial flow conditions. However, estimated MAR rates are impacted by the uncertainty in streamflow data, filtering of streamflow time series and model structure. Future work will be focused on quantifying uncertainty in MAR estimates caused from various sources.

 

How to cite: Ajami, H. and Schreiner-McGraw, A.: Quantifying Mountain Aquifer Recharge Rates Using Storage-Discharge Functions in the Sierra Nevada, California , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1921, 2021.

EGU21-2594 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Between high mountain processes and urban needs: implementing lake regulations into a hydrological model to anticipate climate change impacts

Tobias Wechsler, Andreas Inderwildi, Bettina Schaefli, and Massimiliano Zappa

From snow-covered peaks to urban heat islands, this gradient, in its most concentrated form, is the essence of Alpine regions; it spans not only diverse ecosystems, but also diverse demands on water resources. Continuing climate change modifies the water supply and accentuates the pressure from competing water uses. Large Alpine lakes play hereby a key role, for water resource and natural hazard management, but surprisingly, are often only crudely modelled in available climate change impact studies on hydrology. Indeed, regulation of Alpine lake outlets, where daily specifications for lake level and outflow are defined, are the crux to bringing together diverse stakeholders. Ideally, a common regulation is agreed upon with an annual pattern that both corresponds to natural fluctuations and respects the different needs of the lake ecosystem, its immediate environment and upstream and downstream interests, such as fishery, shipping, energy production, nature conservation and the mitigation of high and low extremes. Surprisingly, a key question that remains open to date is how to incorporate these anthropogenic effects into a hydrological model?

To estimate climate change impacts, daily streamflow through this century was calculated with the hydrological model PREVAH, using 39 climate model chains in transient simulation from the new Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2018, corresponding to the three different CO2 emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. PREVAH is based on a 200×200 m grid resolution and consists of several model components covering the hydrological cycle: interception, evapotranspiration, snow, glacier, soil- and groundwater, runoff formation and transfer. In order to implement the anthropogenic effect of lake regulations, we created an interface for the hydrodynamic model MIKE11. In this work, we will present the two hydraulically connected Swiss lakes, Walensee (unregulated) and Zurichsee (regulated), that are located on the gradient between snow-covered peaks and urban environments. This catchment area was already affected by water scarcity in isolated years.

The hydrological projections at the end of the century show minor changes in mean annual lake levels and outflow for both lakes, but there is a pronounced seasonal redistribution of both level and outflow. The changes intensify over time, especially in the scenario without climate change mitigation measures (RCP8.5). In the winter, mean lake levels rise and outflow increases; in the summer, mean lake levels fall and outflow decreases. Walensee’s (unregulated) level change is significantly higher, with a difference of up to 50 cm under RCP8.5, than Zurichsee’s (regulated), which only changes around 5 cm; the changes in outflow are of the same order of magnitude in both lakes. The extremes show an increased frequency of reaching the drawdown limit, but no clear change in frequency of reaching the flood limit.

In order to estimate future hydrological developments on lakes and downstream rivers, it is important to use models that include the impact of such regulations. Hydrological models including anthropogenic effects allow a separation of climatic and regulatory impacts. Timely hydrological projections are crucial to allow the necessary time horizon for both lake and downstream interests to adapt.

How to cite: Wechsler, T., Inderwildi, A., Schaefli, B., and Zappa, M.: Between high mountain processes and urban needs: implementing lake regulations into a hydrological model to anticipate climate change impacts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2594, 2021.

EGU21-5313 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Analysis of flooding events in the Pyrenees and adaptation measures

Erika Pardo, María del Carmen Llasat, Montse Llasat-Botija, and Pere Quintana-Seguí

Floods are the natural phenomenon that causes more victims worldwide and is probably the most devastating, widespread and frequent natural disaster in society. According to the IPCC, the frequency and magnitude of extreme flooding is likely to increase as a result of the water-holding capacity in a warmer atmosphere. An increase in flooding events requires the development of appropriate adaptation measures that are based on sound scientific knowledge and assessments based on the analysis of extreme flood events, in order to carry out hazard zoning and design of structural and non-structural measures to reduce risk levels. 

Due to the above, different databases have been developed in Europe with documented information (affected areas and damage) and instrumental information (meteorological and hydrological records) that integrate the Geographic Information Systems (GIS), with the aim of providing an efficient way of representing the information and a useful tool for its analysis.

The PIRAGUA project addresses the characterization of the hydrological cycle in the Pyrenees region, which includes three countries, France (Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie), Spain (Basque Country, Navarre, Aragon, and Catalonia) and Andorra. This summary presents the main results for one of its objectives, which consists on the analysis of the impact of floods in the Pyrenees, especially on water resources, and the design of the most suitable adaptation strategies. In a first phase, a database of floods was developed, which includes meteorological data, caused impacts, affected areas and the classification of the event according to the impact (ordinary, extraordinary, and catastrophic) for all the Pyrenean massif covering the period 1981-2015, starting from different databases and information sources of each one of the regions. The results show that at the level of the massif there have been 181 flood events, of which 128 have affected Spain, 43 France and 46 Andorra. Of these, 34 have been cross-border and have affected more than one region. Similarly, trend analysis has shown an increase in flood events that have caused significant damage (extraordinary and catastrophic) due to an increase of such events in Aquitaine, Occitanie, Andorra and Catalonia.

On the other hand, all flood events have been characterized with pluviometric data from the daily rainfall gridded dataset generated by SAFRAN. This has made it possible to carry out a statistical analysis and identify the precipitation thresholds associated with the different types of floods. Similarly, SAFRAN has been used to corroborate the flood events in the database and identify possible flooding episodes not included in the historical records. These results and the identification of the municipalities that have historically been most frequently affected by flood events are a starting point for the analysis and creation of more efficient adaptation measures.

How to cite: Pardo, E., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., and Quintana-Seguí, P.: Analysis of flooding events in the Pyrenees and adaptation measures, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5313, 2021.

EGU21-7765 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Modeling impact of GLOF on the the Baksan River runoff (the Central Caucasus, Russia)

Ekaterina Kornilova, Inna Krylenko, Ekaterina Rets, Yuri Motovilov, Evgeniy Bogachenko, Ivan Krylenko, and Dmitry Petrakov

The ongoing intensive deglaciation in high mountain areas is resulting in great instability of mountainous headwater regions, which could significantly extreme hydrological events In this research a model “chain” of hydrodynamic and runoff formation models is adopted to simulate a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Bashkara Lake, situated in headwater region of the Baksan River and its effect on the downstream.

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the Adylsu River valley was developed, based on the STREAM_2D software (author V. Belikov). The ECOMAG runoff formation model (author Yu. Motovilov) for the entire Baksan River basin was adopted. The output flood hydrograph from the STREAM_2D model was set as additional input into the Baksan River runoff formation model in the upper reaches of the Adylsu River below Bashkara and Lapa Lakes.

Based on field surveys and remote sensing data, actual Bashkara Lake GLOF on September 1, 2017 was modelled. The GLOF event was triggered by extreme precipitation that caused overwetting of the dam and increase in the lake water level. The peak GLOF discharge according to modeling was estimated as 710 m3/s at the dambreak section and 320 m3/s at the Adylsu River mouth 40 minutes after the outburst. Two possible mechanisms for re-outburst of Bashkara Lake were taken into account: the rock avalanche impact, forming displacement waves, and the lake outburst due to increase in the water level, accompanied by expansion of the existing dam break. Under the rock avalanche scenario, there was no significant model response. Based on the results of modeling of the second re-outburst scenario, the maximum discharge of the outflow was estimated as 298 m3/s at the dambreak section and 101 m3/s in the Adylsu River mouth.

As a result of model chain application contribution of GLOFs and precipitation to an increase in peak discharge along the Baksan River was estimated. The actual outburst flood amounted to 45% and the precipitation - to 30% of the peak flow in the Baksan River at the mouth of the Adylsu river (10 km from the outburst site). In Tyrnyauz (40 km from the outburst site) the components of the outburst flood and precipitation were equalized, and in Zayukovo (70 km from the outburst site) the outburst flood contributed only about 20% to the peak flow, whereas precipitation - 44%.

Similar calculations were made for a potential re-outburst flood, taking into account expected climate changes with an increase in air temperatures by 2°С and an increase in precipitation by 10% in winter and decrease by 10% in summer. The maximum discharge of the re-outburst flood in the Adylsu river mouth according to modeling can be approximately 3 times less than discharge of the actual outburst on September 1, 2017 and can contribute up to 18% to peak discharge in the Baksan River at the confluence with the Adylsu river.

The Baksan River runoff formation model was developed under support of RFBR, project number 20-35-70024. The glaciation changes and climate impact scenarios analysis was funded by RFBR and the Royal Society of London (RS), project number 21-55-10003.

How to cite: Kornilova, E., Krylenko, I., Rets, E., Motovilov, Y., Bogachenko, E., Krylenko, I., and Petrakov, D.: Modeling impact of GLOF on the the Baksan River runoff (the Central Caucasus, Russia), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7765, 2021.

EGU21-8956 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Estimating peak water in glaciated basins: the importance of scale, process, and terminology

Sally Rangecroft, Marit Van Tiel, Will Blake, Sergio Morera, and Caroline Clason

Peak water is a concept that is increasingly used to describe a tipping point in time for glaciated drainage basins, where annual discharge reaches a maximum and thereafter is in continual decline. Millions of people across the globe depend on glacial meltwater, especially in regions such as the Himalayas and the Andes, and therefore current and future changes in meltwater generated flow and downstream water availability are important for society and ecosystem services. Due to the long-term negative consequence of glacier retreat on freshwater resources, peak water in glaciated basins has received more attention in recent years. Using an example case study from the Peruvian Andes, we highlight crucial considerations around scale, process, and terminology when measuring, modelling, and communicating peak water in glaciated basins. Through the application of commonly used peak water calculation methods, we explore the influence of these considerations on the estimation of peak water timing. One such consideration is the processes affecting discharge aside from direct glacial melt, such as catchment storage (aquifers, wetlands, lakes), precipitation, and human activities. In our example case study of the Rio Santa basin in Peru, we find that these factors may all play a much larger role than originally assumed. Subsequently, some peak water estimates may not isolate glacial melt peak water, but instead represent “basin peak water”. Depending on the basin of interest, these aspects can play a significant role in water availability, and thus in peak water estimates. We believe that these nuisances are important for ensuring that the peak water concept is appropriately communicated to end-users, and to inform suitable water management. As a scientific community, we now have an opportunity to assess and find ways to move forward with a unified approach to the terminology and communication of peak water.

How to cite: Rangecroft, S., Van Tiel, M., Blake, W., Morera, S., and Clason, C.: Estimating peak water in glaciated basins: the importance of scale, process, and terminology, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8956, 2021.

EGU21-9716 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Flow duration curves focusing on flood runoff in relation to different distributions of soil and geology in mountainous basins in Japan

Kazumasa Fujimura, Aki Yanagawa, Yoshihiko Iseri, Masahiro Murakami, Shinjiro Kanae, and Shoji Okada

The behaviors of flood runoff are related to the soil and geological conditions of basin as well as rainfall, basin scale, and topography. However, the effects of surface conditions on flood runoff in natural basins have not been sufficiently investigated until now. Under the situation of an increasing frequency of disasters due to heavy rainfall, it is important to clarify the contribution of basin conditions to flood runoff to enable flood control planning. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between flow duration curves mainly for flood runoff and the areal ratios of different types of soil and geology in the basin. We selected eight mountainous basins with areas from 103 to 331 km2, located in regions of different topographical, geological, and climatological conditions in Japan. The one percentile flow duration curves out of more than 14 years at hourly time steps are used for evaluation. To clarify the properties of flow duration curves, the discharge into the dams, which means the runoff from basins, is shown as runoff height ( Q ), and are normalized, the highest value being, by dividing by the maximum runoff height (Qmax). The flow duration curves are approximated as straight lines on the log-log graph, and the relationships between the slopes and the areal ratios of the different types of soil and geology are shown as scatter plot graphs. The results indicate that the slope of flow duration curves focusing on flood runoff have correlations and significant differences with the areas of (a) Brown Forest soils, and (b) Neogene rock formation, and with the (c) the Andosols/volcanic rock formation ratio.

How to cite: Fujimura, K., Yanagawa, A., Iseri, Y., Murakami, M., Kanae, S., and Okada, S.: Flow duration curves focusing on flood runoff in relation to different distributions of soil and geology in mountainous basins in Japan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9716, 2021.

EGU21-10006 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Comparing model complexity for glacio-hydrological simulation in the data-scarce Peruvian Andes

Randy Muñoz, Christian Huggel, Fabian Drenkhan, Marc Vis, and Daniel Viviroli

Glacierized catchments are of great importance for water supply sustaining diverse human livelihoods, economies, and cultures. Despite their importance, both glacierized headwaters and downstream areas remain poorly monitored. Nevertheless, a considerable amount of international and local research has dealt with hydrological models including different levels of complexity, data sources, and goals. In addition, the increasing availability of free software and powerful automatic model calibration tools facilitates the use of complex models even to non-expert users. As a result, models could show a good performance despite misconceptions. That is also true for the tropical Andes where low data availability and quality combined with large uncertainties on glacio-hydrological and meteorological processes prevail.

Accordingly, this study aims to identify if simple or more complex glacio-hydrological models can perform robust simulations for tropical glacier-fed basins combined with scarce data. The study case was carried out in the Sibinacocha (4,822 m a.s.l) and Phinaya (4,678 m a.s.l.) catchments, both located in the headwater of the Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, in the Cusco region, Peru. These outer-tropical catchments are characterized by pronounced dry and wet seasons and hold a glacier extent of about 8 and 18%, respectively. Three conceptual models were implemented, in order of increasing complexity: 1) the lumped Shaman model (developed in this study), and the semi-distributed 2) HBV-light, and 3) RS Minerve. All simulations were implemented on a monthly time step from 1981 to 2010. Hydroclimatological data series were obtained from the gridded PISCO dataset at 10 km spatial resolution and two local weather stations. Furthermore, changes in glacier surface were delineated for three years (1986, 1994 and 2004) by using a semi-automatic NDSI approach based on satellite imagery. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation was performed using common measures of model performance, the associated flow signatures, and different runoff components.

Results show that all model complexities allow for an acceptable performance (R2 > 0.65, Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.65, Nash-Sutcliffe-ln > 0.73) with small differences related to the model structure. However, more complex models require a more comprehensive calibration strategy and assessment to avoid simulations with apparently high model performance driven by inadequate assumptions. Moreover, more complex models require a better understanding of the underlying hydrological processes that is often hampered by data scarcity, limited knowledge and field accessibility in the Peruvian Andes. Results suggest that a careful calibration strategy, additional data collection, and the implementation of simple models can provide more robust simulations rather than opt for increasing model complexity. For robust hydrological modeling, a comprehensive assessment of the flow signatures and runoff components is pivotal. These findings have been incorporated into a framework that aims for expert and non-expert conducted robust glacio-hydrological simulation under data scarcity. Nevertheless, high uncertainty and limited knowledge hamper a more thorough process understanding and the improvement of related model results which illustrates the limitations of their predictive character. In such a context, additional data collection with local participatory approaches combined with policy-making for climate change adaptation and water management can benefit from approaches that support decision making under high uncertainty.

How to cite: Muñoz, R., Huggel, C., Drenkhan, F., Vis, M., and Viviroli, D.: Comparing model complexity for glacio-hydrological simulation in the data-scarce Peruvian Andes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10006, 2021.

EGU21-10292 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Impact of climate change on water availability in Tropical Andean catchments: a case study in the Vilcanota catchment, Peru

Selina Meier, Randy Munoz, and Christian Huggel

Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a problem in many regions of the world. On the one hand, this can be attributed to changes in precipitation conditions due to climate change. On the other hand, this is also due to population growth and changes in consumer behaviour. In this study, an analysis is carried out for the highly glaciated Vilcanota River catchment (9808 km2 – 1.2% glacier area) in the Cusco region (Peru). Possible climatic and socioeconomic scenarios up to 2050 were developed including the interests from different water sectors, i.e. agriculture, domestic and energy.

The analysis consists of the hydrological simulation at a monthly time step from September 2043 to August 2050 using a simple glacio-hydrological model. For historic conditions (1990 to 2006) a combination of gridded data (PISCO precipitation) and weather stations was used. Future scenario simulations were based on three different climate models for both RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Different glacier outlines were used to simulate changes in glacier surface through the time for both historic (from satellite data) and future (from existing literature) scenarios. Furthermore, future water demand simulations were based on the SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios.

Results from all scenarios suggest an average monthly runoff of about 130 m3/s for the Vilcanota catchment between 2043 and 2050. This represents a change of about +5% compared to the historical monthly runoff of about 123 m3/s. The reason for the increase in runoff is related to the precipitation data from the selected climate models. However, an average monthly deficit of up to 50 m3/s was estimated between April and November with a peak in September. The seasonal deficit is related to the seasonal change in precipitation, while the water demand seems to have a less important influence.

Due to the great uncertainty of the modelling and changes in the socioeconomic situation, the data should be continuously updated. In order to construct a locally sustainable water management system, the modelling needs to be further downscaled to the different subcatchments in the Vilcanota catchment. To address the projected water deficit, a new dam could partially compensate for the decreasing storage capacity of the melting glaciers. However, the construction of the dam could meet resistance from the local population if they cannot be promised and communicated multiple uses of the new dam. Sustainable water management requires the cooperation of all stakeholders and all stakeholders should be able to benefit from it so that they will support future projects.

How to cite: Meier, S., Munoz, R., and Huggel, C.: Impact of climate change on water availability in Tropical Andean catchments: a case study in the Vilcanota catchment, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10292, 2021.

EGU21-11049 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Long-term temporal analysis of four Pyrenean catchments with a gradient of land-cover

Carmelo Juez and Estela Nadal-Romero

Land cover and historical land use practices are the leading drivers of the hydrological response in most catchments systems. Timing, periodicity and magnitude of precipitation-discharge feedbacks are thus impacted by such site-specific characteristics. We analysed the long-term precipitation and discharge databases of four experimental catchments located in the Central Spanish Pyrenees and thus similar in their climate. Furthermore, they have a gradient of land cover (from a relatively pristine forested catchment, through an abandoned cultivated catchment with progressive plant recolonization, to an afforested catchment and ending by a bare degraded badland catchment); so, form a solid benchmark to assess such dynamic changes. For the analysis of the long-term precipitation and discharge time-series we use the wavelet transform methodology, which proves valuable to segregate the continuous hydrological response of the catchments in different and non-similar dominant time-scales. Precipitation and discharge events are not just identified and analysed in terms of magnitude or correlation relationships but also the time-localization of each transient precipitation and discharge events is retrieved. We thus no impose any fixed periodicity in the occurrence of hydrological events and ultimately, we are able to infer the real and site-specific temporal variability of each dataset through which we can infer the timing, variability and physical mechanisms of water storage/transport in each catchment. Thereby, this analysis reveals the land-cover-discharge feedbacks that takes place at different time-scales.

How to cite: Juez, C. and Nadal-Romero, E.: Long-term temporal analysis of four Pyrenean catchments with a gradient of land-cover, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11049, 2021.

EGU21-11133 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Current and future water balance in a Peruvian water catchment – combining hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios

Claudia Teutsch, Alina Motschmann, Christian Huggel, Jochen Seidel, Christian D. León, Randy Muñoz, Jessica Sienel, Fabian Drenkhan, and Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

In the Santa River catchment (Cordillera Blanca) in Peru, water availability is threatened by climate change and socio-economic factors, but little is known about relations and interactions of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors.

We developed a conceptual integrated water balance model that combines hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios, in order to analyze variability of water resources and water availability in the Santa River basin until 2050. The model is based on a lumped HBV model including a glacier - snow model (GSM) to simulate the hydro-climatic processes. In addition, the model was extended by feedback loops for agricultural and domestic water use. The model was calibrated and validated using the Peruvian Interpolated Data of SENAMHI’s Climatological and Hydrological Observations (PISCO) temperature and precipitation data. To assess future water balance challenges we used monthly CORDEX scenarios for 2020-2050 for simulations of future changes in hydro-climatology. These climate scenarios are combined with possible socio-economic scenarios, which were based on stakeholder interviews, workshops and analysis of available data and information concerning water demand. The scenarios that describe changes in the future socio-economic conditions were developed by means of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB), a semi-formalized method from systems analysis which allows the construction of socio-economic scenarios based on an impact network of different (socio-economic) drivers.

The uncertainty in the climate projections is accounted for by using different global circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM) combinations from CORDEX data. The uncertainty in the socio-economic scenarios was addressed by using possible ranges for future developments in water demand depending on the tendencies provided by the CIB analysis (e.g. increasing, constant or decreasing water demand). The climate and socio-economic scenarios are randomly combined in multiple model runs, which result in an ensemble of possible future discharges of the Santa River for each scenario combination.

Results suggest that the mean annual discharge is projected to increase by 10% (±12%) driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively. In contrast, mean dry-season discharge is projected to decrease by 33% and 36% (±24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, mainly driven by diminishing glacier melt discharge. We found that the projected socio-economic changes compared to climatic changes are less pronounced mainly due to higher variations in the trends of the global climate models. Nonetheless, the socio-economic drivers have a major effect on dry-season water availability. The increase of wet season and the decrease of dry season discharge call for different adaptation measures including improvements in water use efficiency, infrastructure and storage capacities.

 

How to cite: Teutsch, C., Motschmann, A., Huggel, C., Seidel, J., León, C. D., Muñoz, R., Sienel, J., Drenkhan, F., and Weimer-Jehle, W.: Current and future water balance in a Peruvian water catchment – combining hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11133, 2021.

EGU21-13001 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

River Temperature Evolution in Switzerland over the 21st Century

Adrien Michel, Jannis Epting, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald

Climate change has and will have many impacts on natural and human systems, and many of these impacts are already well described in the literature. One impact of climate change that received less attention is the increase in river temperature, even though it is recognized as a key variable controlling the water quality of freshwater ecosystems. It influences both the metabolic activity of aquatic organisms and biochemical cycles. It is also a key variable for many industrial sectors, and favorable for the spreading of certain diseases affecting fish.

In a previous study (Michel et al., 2020) we showed a clear increase of +0.33 ± 0.03 °C per decade in water temperature over the last four decades in Switzerland. Important differences between lowland and alpine catchment were identified. Indeed, the warming rate in alpine catchments is only half of that observed in lowlands rivers. This difference is attributed mainly to the contribution of cold water from snow and glacier melt in mountainous area during summer, mitigating the impact of air temperature warming.

As a follow up, the response of selected Swiss catchments in lowland and alpine regions to the future forcing is numerically assessed using the CH2018 climate change scenarios for Switzerland. This is done using a sequence of physics-based models. The CH2018 climate change scenarios have been extended to a new set of alpine meteorological stations and downscaled to hourly resolution (Michel et al., 2021).

The results show an increase in water temperature for any of the RCP (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) scenarios and a strong impact of climate change on alpine catchments caused by changes in snowfall/melt, glacier melt, and surface albedo. Indeed, we see a rapid acceleration of the warming in alpine catchments which “catch-up” with the warming already observed in lowland catchments. This can lead to a warming of up to +7 °C by the end of the century in some alpine rivers with the RCP8.5 scenario. An important shift in the hydrological regime is also observed, particularly in high-altitude rivers.

As a result, river ecosystems will be severely impacted. In addition, the combined changes in water temperature and discharge have an important impact on the groundwater temperature annual cycle, as we discussed in Epting et al. (2021). Seasonal shifts in rivers water infiltration associated with increased groundwater recharge during high runoff periods could be an important factor affecting future groundwater temperatures.

REFERENCES

Epting, J., Michel, A., Affolter, A., & Huggenberger, P.: Climate change effects on groundwater recharge and temperatures in Swiss alluvial aquifers, Journal of Hydrology X, 11, 100071, 2021, doi:10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100071.

Michel, A., Brauchli, T., Lehning, M., Schaefli, B., & Huwald, H.: Stream temperature and discharge evolution in Switzerland over the last 50 years: annual and seasonal behaviour, Hydrological and Earth System Science, 24, 115–142, 2020, doi:10.5194/hess-24-115-2020.

Michel, A., Sharma, V., Lehning, M., & Huwald, H.: Climate change scenarios at hourly time-step over Switzerland from an enhanced temporal downscaling approach, International Journal of Climatology, under review

How to cite: Michel, A., Epting, J., Lehning, M., and Huwald, H.: River Temperature Evolution in Switzerland over the 21st Century, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13001, 2021.

EGU21-13065 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Peak water in observed glacier-fed streamflow time series

Kerstin Stahl, Marit van Tiel, and R. Dan Moore

Glacier peak water describes the initial increasing and subsequent decreasing trend of glacier melt water as a response to global warming. The phenomenon might encourage excessive water use that cannot be sustained in the long-term. Knowing magnitude and time scale of its effect on streamflow trends and changes in partly glacierized catchments is therefore needed. This comparative regional study examined August streamflow records from 1976-2015 in the European Alps, Norway, Western Canada, and Alaska. It aimed to detect whether and when a peak was reached or passed and how strong decreasing post-peak streamflow trends were. A one-peak hypothesis could not be confirmed in many of the records and the variability of individual series' detected peaks and trends is large. Some common patterns in the timing of peaks and general trend directions in the records could be generalized. These suggest: a peak early in the period in Western Canada followed by mostly declining streamflow trends, pre-peak conditions in Alaska resulting in mostly positive streamflow trends, variable peaks in Norway and the Alps from the mid-1990s on with differences for low and highly glacierized catchments. Trends and peaks in climate-variability corrected August streamflow broadly related to phases of regional glacier retreat, but local variability is more complex.  Only weak systematic deviations were found related to catchment characteristics. This multi-record and multi-region comparison of streamflow observations suggests that knowledge on a regional phenomenon will need to be complemented with local monitoring and modelling to provide useful information for water resources planning.

How to cite: Stahl, K., van Tiel, M., and Moore, R. D.: Peak water in observed glacier-fed streamflow time series, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13065, 2021.

EGU21-13369 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

No-regret adaptation to climate change through management of glacial lakes in the Santa River Basin in Peru

Gladis Celmi, Andrea Momblanch, Tim Hess, Catriona L. Fyffe, Emily Potter, Andrew Orr, Fabian Drenkhan, Noah Walker-Crawford, Edwin Loarte, Maria Gracia Bustamante, and Francesca Pellicciotti

The vast majority (~70%) of tropical glaciers in the world are located in the Peruvian Andes. The Santa River Basin, in the Ancash region of Peru, is bound by two parallel mountain ranges; the Cordillera Blanca to the east and the Cordillera Negra to the west. The main water sources in the Cordillera Blanca are rivers and lakes originated from glacier melt, while the Cordillera Negra has no glaciers and depends on seasonal rainfall. In the last decades, water resources have decreased due to climate change, while demand has increased due to population growth and intensification of agricultural and industrial activities. Moreover, higher water levels in glacial lakes due to accelerated glacier melt has reduced their flood attenuation capacity that, along with other triggers of outburst floods, can have catastrophic consequences. One of the strategies adopted by the regional government is the construction of dams, floodgates and siphon drainage systems to reduce the risk of outburst floods. The lowering of lake water levels to provide flood attenuation conflicts with the need for increasing water regulation in the basin (to compensate glacier mass loss) and alters the natural downstream flow regime.

This study responds to the need for long-term planning of the major glacial lakes in the Santa River Basin to satisfy all water uses, including environmental ones, and contributing to flood reduction under alternative future climate change scenarios. We adopt a systems analysis approach with the support of the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) coupled with the hydro-glaciological model TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI). They are driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model for future emission scenarios and global climate models available in the CMIP5, for the period 2022-2050. The integration of these models allows representing the complex hydrology of the catchment, explicitly accounting for glacier mass change, and water resources management including the main lakes and water demands. A large spectrum of climate change and lake management scenarios are analysed with a no-regret approach using criteria related to the reliability of water supply for human demands and environmental flows, along with flood abatement and water scarcity. The results of this study that interface hydrology, water demands and infrastructures support local decision-making and exchange with stakeholders in the Santa River Basin, which will strengthen water security across water uses, fostering development and economic growth in the region.

How to cite: Celmi, G., Momblanch, A., Hess, T., Fyffe, C. L., Potter, E., Orr, A., Drenkhan, F., Walker-Crawford, N., Loarte, E., Bustamante, M. G., and Pellicciotti, F.: No-regret adaptation to climate change through management of glacial lakes in the Santa River Basin in Peru, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13369, 2021.

EGU21-13443 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Impact and uncertainty of climate projections on Alpine catchments using high-resolution models

Jorge Sebastian Moraga, Nadav Peleg, Simone Fatichi, Peter Molnar, and Paolo Burlando

Hydrological processes in mountainous catchments will be subject to climate change on all scales, and their response is expected to vary considerably in space. Typical hydrological studies, which use coarse climate data inputs obtained from General Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM), focus mostly on statistics at the outlet of the catchments, overlooking the effects within the catchments. Furthermore, the role of uncertainty, especially originated from natural climate variability, is rarely analyzed. In this work, we quantified the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and determined the sources of uncertainties in the projections for two mostly natural Swiss alpine catchments: Kleine Emme and Thur. Using a two-dimensional weather generator, AWE-GEN-2d, and based on nine different GCM-RCM model chains, we generated high-resolution (2 km, 1 hour) ensembles of gridded climate inputs until the end of the 21st century. The simulated variables were subsequently used as inputs into the fully distributed hydrological model Topkapi-ETH to estimate the changes in hydrological statistics at 100-m and hourly resolutions. Increased temperatures (by 4°C, on average) and changes in precipitation (decrease over high elevations by up to 10%, and increase at the lower elevation by up to 15%) results in increased evapotranspiration rates in the order of 10%, up to a 50% snowmelt, and drier soil conditions. These changes translate into important shifts in streamflow seasonality at the outlet of the catchments, with a significant increase during the winter months (up to 40%) and a reduction during the summer (up to 30%). Analysis at the sub-catchment scale reveals elevation-dependent hydrological responses: mean annual streamflow, as well as high and low flow extremes, are projected to decrease in the uppermost sub-catchments and increase in the lower ones. Furthermore, we computed the uncertainty of the estimations and compared them to the magnitude of the change signal. Although the signal-to-noise-ratio of extreme streamflow for most sub-catchments is low (below 0.5) there is a clear elevation dependency. In every case, internal climate variability (as opposed to climate model uncertainty) explains most of the uncertainty, averaging 85% for maximum and minimum flows, and 60% for mean flows. The results highlight the importance of modelling the distributed impacts of climate change on mountainous catchments, and of taking into account the role of internal climate variability in hydrological projections.

How to cite: Moraga, J. S., Peleg, N., Fatichi, S., Molnar, P., and Burlando, P.: Impact and uncertainty of climate projections on Alpine catchments using high-resolution models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13443, 2021.

EGU21-13916 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Hydrological implications of vegetation change in a subarctic, alpine catchment, Yukon Territory, Canada 

Erin Nicholls, Gordon Drewitt, and Sean Carey

As a result of altitude and latitude amplified impacts of climate change, widespread alterations in vegetation composition, density and distribution are widely observed across the circumpolar north. The influence of this vegetation change on the timing and magnitude of hydrological fluxes is uncertain, and is confounded by changes driven by increased temperatures and altered precipitation (P) regimes. In northern alpine catchments, quantification of total evapotranspiration (ET) and evaporative partitioning across a range of elevation-based ecosystems is critical for predicting water yield under change, yet remains challenging due to coupled environmental and phenological controls on transpiration (T). In this work, we analyze 6 years of surface energy balance, ET, and sap flow data at three sites along an elevational gradient in a subarctic, alpine catchment near Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada. These sites provide a space-for-time evaluation of vegetation shifts and include: 1) a low-elevation boreal white spruce forest (~20 m), 2) a mid-elevation subalpine taiga comprised of tall willow (Salix) and birch (Betula) shrubs (~1-3 m) and 3) a high-elevation subalpine taiga with shorter shrub cover (< 0.75 m) and moss, lichen, and bare rock. Specific objectives are to 1) evaluate interannual ET dynamics within and among sites under different precipitation regimes , and 2) assess the influence of vegetation type and structure, phenology, soil and meteorological controls on ET dynamics and partitioning.  Eddy covariance and sap flow sensors operated year-round at the forest and during the growing season at the mid-elevation site on both willow and birch shrubs for two years. Growing season ET decreased and interannual variability increased with elevation, with June to August ET totals of 250 (±3) mm at Forest, 192 (±9) mm at the tall shrub site, and 180 (± 26) mm at the short shrub site. Comparatively, AET:P ratios were the highest and most variable at the forest (2.4 ± 0.3) and similar at the tall and short shrub (1.2 ± 0.1).  At the forest, net radiation was the primary control on ET, and 55% was direct T from white spruce. At the shrub sites, monthly ET rates were similar except during the peak growing season when T at the tall shrub site comprised 89% of ET, resulting in greater total water loss. Soil moisture strongly influenced T at the forest, suggesting the potential for moisture stress, yet not at the shrub sites where there was no moisture limitation. Results indicate that elevation advances in treeline will increase overall ET and lower interannual variability; yet the large water deficit during summer implies a strong reliance on early spring snowmelt recharge to sustain soil moisture. Changes in shrub height and density will increase ET primarily during the mid-growing season. This work supports the assertion that predicted changes in vegetation type and structure will have a considerable impact on water partitioning in northern regions, and will also vary in a multifaceted way in response to changing temperature and P regimes.  

How to cite: Nicholls, E., Drewitt, G., and Carey, S.: Hydrological implications of vegetation change in a subarctic, alpine catchment, Yukon Territory, Canada , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13916, 2021.

EGU21-14149 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Freshwater input into a low-Arctic Fjord in West Greenland: Timing, drivers and model evaluation

Jakob Abermann, Kirsty Langley, Sille Myreng, Dorthe Petersen, Kerstin Rasmussen, and Stefanie Peßenteiner

The majority of the freshwater input from Greenland stems from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Despite its importance in terms of freshwater totals, there is a much higher number of individual catchments disconnected from the ice sheet contributing on average about 26% of the total Greenland freshwater flux. Most of those catchments have local glacier cover, only very few of them are instrumented and little scientific literature exists. We present a dataset of 12 years of discharge of four catchments less than 15 km apart, that are different in size (between 7 and 32 km²), local glacier coverage (4-11%) and lake cover (0-5%). They all drain into Kobbefjord, a well-studied fjord in West Greenland, near Greenland’s capital Nuuk. We find that annual specific discharge totals vary greatly (between 1.2 and 1.9 m/yr on a 12-year average within 15 km) due to a general climatic gradient and different strengths of orographic shading. The seasonal cycle differs among the sites mainly due to different exposure to solar radiation as a driver for major snowmelt; small ice coverage in the catchments plays only a minor role in discharge variability. Dry years generally increase the magnitude of spatial gradients in specific discharge and no significant temporal trends have been found in the studied catchments. On the sub-daily scale, the presence and elevation of lakes determines the catchment’s response during sunny days, leading to a difference in the timing of maximum discharge of between 7 and 12 hours depending on the site and the time of the year. The response of discharge to major precipitation events is discussed, where uniform reaction is found for the catchments with no lakes near the gauge and a delay of between 5 and 7 hours in the catchment with low-lying lakes. A comparison with a recently published modelled discharge time series on individual catchment scale shows the model’s capability of reproducing both snowmelt and large-scale storm events; however, the strong spatial heterogeneity of discharge magnitude and timing as well as the presence and variability of base-flow is not captured. We discuss methods to combine observational data with existing model output in order to improve the potential of their combined usage on the Greenland-scale.

How to cite: Abermann, J., Langley, K., Myreng, S., Petersen, D., Rasmussen, K., and Peßenteiner, S.: Freshwater input into a low-Arctic Fjord in West Greenland: Timing, drivers and model evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14149, 2021.

EGU21-14531 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Adaptation of SWAT hydrological model to study runoff processes in the mountainous Baksan river basin (the North Caucasus, Russia)

Ivan Durmanov, Ekaterina Rets, Ekaterina Kornilova, and Maria Kireeva

In past years, there has been an intensive deglaciation in the North Caucasus. Glacier area has decreased by almost 27%, since 1960. This is reflected in the decrease of August and July monthly runoff by 2–20%. To study the processes of river runoff in mountainous areas, the SWAT hydrological model was adapted for the Baksan River. Baksan is a mountain river, located in North Caucasus. It originates from the glaciers of Mount Elbrus and flows in a foothills to Malka River (Caspian sea basin).

As input parameters we used meteorological data from ERA5 reanalysis and data from 4 meteorological stations with period of observations 1977-2019. Also soil database, glacier data and DTEM were used. For model calibration we used SWAT-CUP tool with daily river runoff data from 2 gauges in Baksan basin. Results of modelling were compared with ECOMAG hydrological model, which used similar input parameters. Advantages and disadvantages of each model were analyzed in conditions of mountain river runoff.

This work was financial supported by RFBR (Project 20-35-70024)

How to cite: Durmanov, I., Rets, E., Kornilova, E., and Kireeva, M.: Adaptation of SWAT hydrological model to study runoff processes in the mountainous Baksan river basin (the North Caucasus, Russia), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14531, 2021.

EGU21-16471 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.6

Groundwater recharge and groundwater water resources under present and future climate over the Pyrenees (France, Spain, Andorre)

Yvan Caballero, Sandra Lanini, Pierre Le Cointe, Stéphanie Pinson, Guillaume Hevin, Jorge Jódar, Javier Lambán, Ane Zabaleta, Iñaki Antigüedad, and Santiago Beguería

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on water resources in mountain areas, as it is the case of the Pyrenees range between France, Spain and Andorre. Independently of future changes on rainfall patterns, global temperature rise is likely to provoke larger and earlier snowmelt, and enhanced precipitation deficits during the dry summer season. Exploring the impacts of this future situation on groundwater is essential, as this resource is often important for drinking water, irrigation and breeding uses in mountain regions. However, studies on groundwater recharge in the context of climate change are relatively scarce, as compared to studies focusing on surface water resources.

We assessed potential groundwater recharge (part of effective precipitation that infiltrates and potentially reach the aquifers) over the Pyrenean range in the framework of the PIRAGUA project, a collaborative multi-national effort funded by the EU’s Interreg POCTEFA program. Based on a gridded (5x5 km²) meteorological dataset derived from observational data by the CLIMPY project, we estimated effective precipitation for each grid cell using a conceptual water balance scheme. The effect of the seasonal change of land cover / land use (based on the Corine Land Cover dataset) on the water budget model has been assessed, and showed the need to include this component for a more accurate simulation. Based on a spatial characterization of the land infiltration capacity, the potential groundwater recharge has been computed for homogeneous groundwater bodies. Results have been compared to the outputs of groundwater models applied on selected karstic catchments using the BALAN code, and to a general knowledge of groundwater recharge rates for different regions within the study zone. Finally, climate change impacts on future IDPR have been explored using scenarios provided by the CLIMPY project.

The Pyrenees range is a hot-spot for water resources with a tremendous impact over a much broader region in SW Europe, as Pyrenean rivers are fundamental contributors to large systems such as those of the Adour and Garonne (France) or Ebro (Spain), as well as smaller systems in the western and eastern sectors such as the Bidasoa (Spanish Basque Country), Llobregat-Ter-Muga (Catalonia), or Têt-Tech-Aude (France). Our results are relevant for the planning and management of water resources for this important transboundary region in the future, as changes in groundwater recharge will also affect water resources availability.

Acknowledgments: the project PIRAGUA, is funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Interreg V-A Spain France Andorra programme (POCTEFA 2014-2020).

How to cite: Caballero, Y., Lanini, S., Le Cointe, P., Pinson, S., Hevin, G., Jódar, J., Lambán, J., Zabaleta, A., Antigüedad, I., and Beguería, S.: Groundwater recharge and groundwater water resources under present and future climate over the Pyrenees (France, Spain, Andorre), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16471, 2021.

HS2.1.7 – Snow and ice accumulation, melt, and runoff generation in catchment hydrology: monitoring and modelling

Glaciers in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) are sensitive to climatic changes. Rivers originating from Himalaya have higher water yields in the ablation season due to large inputs from the melting of snow and glaciers, which is critical for sustaining downstream ecosystem, agricultural practices, hydroelectric power generation, and urban water supplies. Integrated investigations are frequently unavailable at a regional scale over a longer period, which is hampered due to the non-availability of data caused by harsh weather conditions, difficult terrain, as well as difficulty in maintaining the instruments at such high altitudes (> 3000 m asl). The hydrological understanding of melting processes from glacierized basins requires a network of reliable meteorological and hydrological observations. In absence of such reliable meteorological data, most of the hydrological simulation studies are forced to extrapolate air temperature from nearby basins, lower elevations, or consider satellite-based observations, which often deviate or differ from the actual ground conditions and lead to large uncertainty in model outputs. Therefore, an integrated approach for collecting hydrological and meteorological data along with other data like snow-cover, suspended sediment transfer and stable isotopic signatures of different components of the hydrograph were conceptualized for glacierized river basins in Garhwal Himalaya (Bhagirathi and Alaknanda). Our results suggest that the annual distribution of temperature lapse rates (TLR) established exhibits a bimodal pattern and the TLR’s are significantly lower than the adiabatic lapse rate. The major components of the streamflow are derived from snow and glacier melt, while rainfall contributes little during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Westerlies significantly feed the glacier with snow, while rainfall is dominant during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Precipitation and temperature are the dominant meteorological factors controlling melting processes and sediment delivery. Climate and topography control the distribution of seasonal snow cover/ snowline in the region. Extreme events like heavy rainfall, flash floods, glacial lake outbursts floods, etc. can be traced using hydrometeorological and isotopic data at high altitude stations. Therefore, in light of the challenges and potential research gaps, the study produces actionable knowledge in the Garhwal Himalaya for better understanding and modeling of glacio-hydrological processes by incorporating ground-based observations.

How to cite: Kumar, A., Verma, A., Tiwari, S. K., and Rai, S. K.: In-situ hydro-meteorological records in conjunction with stable isotope systematics to understand the hydrological processes in Glaciers of Garhwal Himalaya, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12032, 2021.

EGU21-7584 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Spatiotemporal variations of isotopes in snow and snowmelt in the subarctic setting at Pallas catchment, Finland

Kashif Noor, Pertti Ala-Aho, Hannu Marttila, and Bjørn Kløve

Due to the rise in global temperature, changes in precipitation patterns are predicted particularly in Arctic regions. Such changes in patterns and modifications in typical snow to precipitation ratios will affect the snowpack thickness and the timing of snow accumulation and snow melting. Stable water isotopes (δ2H, δ18O)  are one of the latest tools in exploring and tracing such changes, however, snow isotope and particularly snowmelt isotope datasets are rarely available which hamper the high-resolution isotope based hydrological investigations in Arctic regions. In this study, we perform an investigation for evaluating spatiotemporal variations in stable isotopes of snow and snowmelt water. Our Pallas research catchment is located in a subarctic setting in northern Finland. The measurements were made at 11 locations along a 2 km snow survey, which is established on the transect of the catchment, comprising of different landscape features (i) forested hillslope, (ii) mixed forest and (iii) open mires. We sampled depth-integrated bulk snowpack and fixed 5 cm incremental snow stratigraphy profile in snowpits. For snowmelt sampling, we used a system of snowmelt lysimeter, deployed at 11 locations. The bulk snowpack samples were collected biweekly, fixed 5 cm incremental stratigraphic snowpit samples during the period of maximum snowcover thickness and during the start of peak melting, during the peak melting and after the peak melting. Snowmelt samples were collected daily during the spring season until the complete disappearance of snow with complementary measurements of snowmelt flux, snow density and snow water equivalent. Our results indicate the higher mean values of snowmelt isotopes relative to the bulk snowpack and surface snow isotopes. The snow isotope profiles in snowpack reveal that the isotopes at the snow-air and snow-ground interfaces are enriched in heavier isotopes as compared to the middle of the snowpack. The snowmelt isotopes show that the isotopes are initially depleted in heavier isotopes but with the progress of melting, they start to become enriched. A well defined depleted to enriched pattern is observed at different locations in the forested hillslope area, while a relatively dispersed depleted to enriched pattern is observed at different locations in the mixed forested area. Our unique high-resolution dataset of snow and snowmelt isotopes will be useful in many applications; such as for evaluating post-depositional isotope modification in the seasonal snowpack, developing tracer-aided mass and energy based snow models. The establishment of snowmelt isotope dataset, showing spatiotemporal variability of snowmelt isotopes, is an important step forward in isotope based plant-water uptake studies and hydrological analyses in snow-influenced catchments.

How to cite: Noor, K., Ala-Aho, P., Marttila, H., and Kløve, B.: Spatiotemporal variations of isotopes in snow and snowmelt in the subarctic setting at Pallas catchment, Finland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7584, 2021.

EGU21-9461 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Alpine stream characterization through the lens of hydrochemistry: a comparison study from two high-elevation catchments (Eastern Italian Alps) 

Michael Engel, Stefano Brighenti, Werner Tirler, Rudi Nadalet, Volkmar Mair, Massimo Tagliavini, and Francesco Comiti

High-elevation catchments are rapidly changing as glaciers retreat and permafrost thawing intensifies. Consequently, alpine stream hydrochemistry is shifting but the interaction with complex hydrological and geological settings often confounds the effect of the climatic signal. To evaluate the effect of different glacier coverage and rock glacier presence, our study involves a multi-parameter approach of different tracers in two high-elevation catchments. Both catchments (Schnals and Martell; Eastern Italian Alps) share a comparable metamorphic geology but contrast in their glacier cover (4% and 22%, respectively) and abundance of active rock glaciers (numerous in the Schnals catchment).

Based on these different settings, we hypothesized that i) the glacier melt contribution at the daily and monthly scale in Martell is larger than in Schnals, ii) metamorphic catchments share similar hydrochemical patterns along the river network, and iii) rock glacier meltwaters affect more strongly the hydrochemistry of the main stream in Schnals than in Martell, given the higher abundance of active rock glaciers in the former catchment.

From June 2019 to October 2020, we carried out a monthly sampling of stream water along the main river, major tributaries, springs and a rock glacier. Snowmelt and ice melt (only at Martell) were occasionally sampled as well. Rain was collected on a monthly basis. Electrical conductivity of water samples was measured on-site while stable water isotopes and concentrations of major, minor, and trace elements were measured in the laboratory.

Our results indicate that the isotopic composition of streams and tributaries in Martell mainly originated from snowmelt and ice melt, with a minor contribution from groundwater. In contrast, the contribution of precipitation, shallow groundwater, and rock glaciers was larger in the Schnals catchment. The two catchments showed distinct hydrochemical patterns, based on their different elemental concentrations. Mostly during the glacier ablation period and autumn, alkali elements dominated Schnals hydrochemistry, whereas arsenic and strontium characterized the stream hydrochemistry of Martell. Concentrations of metals and metalloids had a sharp increase during autumn, when thawing permafrost and the subglacial drainage was highest, thus affecting the hydrochemistry of the entire river network. As thawing permafrost increasingly influences the quality of freshwaters in deglaciating catchments, efforts must be dedicated to the long-term monitoring of alpine river networks, given the potential implications for human health and ecosystem quality.

How to cite: Engel, M., Brighenti, S., Tirler, W., Nadalet, R., Mair, V., Tagliavini, M., and Comiti, F.: Alpine stream characterization through the lens of hydrochemistry: a comparison study from two high-elevation catchments (Eastern Italian Alps) , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9461, 2021.

EGU21-13440 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Satellite remote sensing of the Oka-Volga confluence zone during the ice melting

Olga Danilicheva, Stanislav Ermakov, and Ivan Kapustin

The river confluence is one of the most complex processes in river morphology, which plays an important role in riverbed deformation, mixing processes, pollution transport, etc. The area of river confluence can be often visually observed as the relatively thin transition region or mixing zone (MZ) separating two parallel weakly mixing flows. The mixing zone characteristics, in particular width, are important indicators of the turbulent mixing intensity and momentum and substance exchange between two flows, therefore, understanding the physical mechanisms affected on the mixing zone formation and manifestation is an important task in ecological remote monitoring. A typical example of a river confluence is the merging of the Volga and Oka rivers (Russia). In this work satellite radar and optical images of the Oka -Volga MZ during the active ice cover melting were analyzed. The mixing zone of rivers as the formation of wet snow at the initial stages of melting, which further contributes to the formation of open water patches in the area of rivers confluence zone is shown. Such manifestation of the mixing zone can be presumably associated with factories / thermal power plants emissions and turbulent mixing of river flows. An increase of the radar signal backscattering of wet snow was observed, and it can be associated with the predominance of surface scattering (an increase of affection of surface roughness) with an increase of snow and ice cover moisture. In conditions of positive average daily temperatures, intense ice melting led to the appearance of open water patches, which were partially covered with fragmented ice. Although the wind velocity during the observation period was about 3-5 m/s, which significantly exceeds the threshold of wind waves excitation, the latter, was rather weak, in particular, due to the wind wave damping on the water covered with the floes. This led to the manifestation of the MZ as an extended dark band, and also presumably caused weak radar backscattering after the ice opening of the Volga part.

The research was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects RFBR № 18-45-520004 and № 20-05-00561)

How to cite: Danilicheva, O., Ermakov, S., and Kapustin, I.: Satellite remote sensing of the Oka-Volga confluence zone during the ice melting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13440, 2021.

EGU21-486 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Monitoring snowpack evolution with meteorological reanalysis data in the Atlas Mountains

Wassim Mohamed Baba, Abdelghani Boudhar, Simon Gascoin, Lahoucine Hanich, Ahmed Marchane, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

The seasonal snow cover in the Altas mountains of Morocco is an important resource, mostly because it provides melt-water runoff for irrigation during the crop growing season. However, the knowledge on physical properties of the snowpack (e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt) is still very limited due to the scarcity or the lack of ground measurements in the elevated area. In this study we suggest that the recent progresses of meteorological reanalysis data (e.g., MERRA-2 and ERA-5) open new perspectives to overcome this issue. We fed a distributed snowpack evolution model (SnowModel) with downscaled ERA-5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses and evaluate their performance to simulate snow cover. The modeling covers the period 1981 to 2019 (37 water years). SnowModel simulations were assessed using observations of river discharge, snow height and snow cover area derived from MODIS.

For most of hydrological years, the results show a good performance for both MERRA-2 and ERA-5 with a slight superiority of ERA-5, to reproduce the snowpack state.

Key words: snow, snow water equivalent, reanalysis , MERRA-2, ERA-5

How to cite: Baba, W. M., Boudhar, A., Gascoin, S., Hanich, L., Marchane, A., and Chehbouni, A.: Monitoring snowpack evolution with meteorological reanalysis data in the Atlas Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-486, 2021.

EGU21-10182 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Experiments on wind-driven heat exchange processes over melting snow

Michael Haugeneder, Tobias Jonas, Dylan Reynolds, Michael Lehning, and Rebecca Mott

Snowmelt runoff predictions in alpine catchments are challenging because of the high spatial variability of the snow cover driven by various snow accumulation and ablation processes. In spring, the coexistence of bare and snow-covered ground engages a number of processes such as the enhanced lateral advection of heat over partial snow cover, the development of internal boundary layers, and atmospheric decoupling effects due to increasing stability at the snow cover. The interdependency of atmospheric conditions, topographic settings and snow coverage remains a challenge to accurately account for these processes in snow melt models.
In this experimental study, we used an Infrared Camera (VarioCam) pointing at thin synthetic projection screens with negligible heat capacity. Using the surface temperature of the screen as a proxy for the air temperature, we obtained a two-dimensional instantaneous measurement. Screens were installed across the transition between snow-free and snow-covered areas. With IR-measurements taken at 10Hz, we capture the dynamics of turbulent temperature fluctuations over the patchy snow cover at high spatial and temporal resolution. From this data we were able to obtain high-frequency, two-dimensional windfield estimations adjacent to the surface.

Preliminary results show the formation of a stable internal boundary layer (SIBL), which was temporally highly variable. Our data suggest that the SIBL height is very shallow and strongly sensitive to the mean near-surface wind speed. Only strong gusts were capable of penetrating through this SIBL leading to an enhanced energy input to the snow surface.

With these type of results from our experiments and further measurements this spring we aim to better understand small scale energy transfer processes over patch snow cover and it’s dependency on the atmospheric conditions, enabling to improve parameterizations of these processes in coarser-resolution snow melt models.

How to cite: Haugeneder, M., Jonas, T., Reynolds, D., Lehning, M., and Mott, R.: Experiments on wind-driven heat exchange processes over melting snow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10182, 2021.

EGU21-14084 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Can snow persistence explain the spatial-temporal variabilities in streamflow hydrograph flashiness across snow-dominated regions?

Edward Le, Ali Ameli, Joseph Janssen, John Hammond, and Kristo Elijah Krugger

Recent research showed that, snow persistence, defined here as the fraction of time that snow is present on the ground, can play an important role in explaining spatial variability of average annual streamflow in moderately snowmelt-dominated regions. Here, we extend this work and explore the following questions: 1) whether globally available snow persistence data is useful for estimating a suite of streamflow signatures explaining the shape, flashiness and components of streamflow hydrograph, and 2) whether snow persistence could be useful for reconstructing streamflow patterns in ungauged watersheds, both spatially and temporally. We explore these questions across a spectrum of climatic dryness, snowiness, and geological settings. The motivations for the study are the need to understand how loss of snow may affect the components of streamflow in different climatic and geological settings, as well as the need for simple methods to predict components of streamflow in snow-dominated ungauged basins.

How to cite: Le, E., Ameli, A., Janssen, J., Hammond, J., and Krugger, K. E.: Can snow persistence explain the spatial-temporal variabilities in streamflow hydrograph flashiness across snow-dominated regions?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14084, 2021.

EGU21-15739 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Streamflow event classification in snowfed rivers in Mediterranean catchments: a process-oriented assessment 

Pedro Torralbo, Rafael Pimentel, Javier Aparicio, Javier Herrero, Cristina Aguilar, and María J. Polo

Streamflow in Mediterranean Mountain Areas is highly linked to the storage capacity of snowpacks and its seasonal dynamics, these becoming the only water source,during long periods, particularly during dryer seasons such as spring or summer. This fact makes that to have a better understanding of the significant drivers of change in the hydrological regimen in many mountain rivers requires a process-oriented approach  to assess the different interacting effects and their propagation from atmospheric conditions to runoff and baseflow generation in these areas. Snow dynamics has a direct and major impact on the partitioning of river flow into baseflow, subsurface flow, and runoff. Moreover, the snowpack is extremely affected by the partitioning of precipitation and water outflows (i.e., rainfall vs snowfall and snowmelt vs evaposublimation) that largely modify the riverflow regime with a stronge nonlinearity of their interactions.

This work presents the characterization of streamflow events in mountain rivers of semiarid areas based on a process-oriented approach from the identification of the major sources/sinks of water in the snow-dominated headwaters of different basins in the Sierra Nevada area, in southern Spain, within an altitudinal range of 1000-3479 m a.s.l. For this, two  catchments with available time series of streamflow are analyzed together with meteorological data and the simulation of water fluxes from the snowpack by the physically-based model SNOWMED, validated and operational in this area (www.uco.es/dfh/snowmed). First, the Cadiar River catchment (area of 0.19 km2 and mean elevation of 2034 m, 20-yr daily flow series), which is highly dominated by snow,was chosen as a representative catchment with direct dominant impacts on streamflow from snow-related water fluxes. Secondly, the contributing catchment area upstream the Órgive gauge station, in the Guadalfeo River(area of 1058 km2 and mean elevation of 1418.5 m, 28-yr daily flow series), which includes the previous case, was analized to assess the snow impacts propagation and lamination by other runoff generation conditions downstream the snow-dominated areas..  

The resulting streamflow-event series i) shows the variability of the flooding and recession periods in this area on both the seasonal and annual scales due to the variability of the snow regime upstream, and ii) constitutes a key database to assess the impact of climate trends on these rivers and understand how future climate may condition the availability of water during the dry season in the downstream areas. The results not only expand this comprehension of how snowpack-streamflow interacts in semiarid regions, but also provide us with an assessment on predictable events within a short and seasonal forecasting local framework, that can be applied to other Mediterranean mountain rivers after local analyses.

How to cite: Torralbo, P., Pimentel, R., Aparicio, J., Herrero, J., Aguilar, C., and Polo, M. J.: Streamflow event classification in snowfed rivers in Mediterranean catchments: a process-oriented assessment , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15739, 2021.

EGU21-12760 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Trends in snowmelt rates over Europe inferred from historical snow depth observations converted to SWE

Adrià Fontrodona-Bach, Josh Larsen, Ross Woods, Bettina Schaefli, and Ryan Teuling

There is strong evidence that rising temperatures mostly lead to less snow accumulation and to an earlier melt onset. However, changes in the frequency and intensity of snowmelt events remain unclear. While higher temperatures should intuitively lead to faster snowmelt, some studies find that melt rates are slower because the melt onset occurs earlier in the year when less energy is available for melt. Modelling of these snow dynamics is challenged by a lack of continuous observations on water content of the snowpack, the highly sought after SWE. However, high quality observations of snow depth can be more available in both space and time, even at higher altitudes. Therefore, an increasing number of models try to estimate SWE from snow depth and other variables. Here we first investigate if these models accurately reproduce the snow accumulation and melt dynamics, and to what extent they can be used for hydrological studies. We then convert a long-term pan-European snow depth dataset to SWE by making use of these models and we assess model performance. Historical trends of snowmelt rates, melt onset, and frequency and intensity of melt events are shown for several seasonal snow locations across Europe. Trends across a variety of timescales are generally weak and spatially inhomogeneous, suggesting local conditions dominate over regional climate trends. However, it seems that under the current climate change conditions, the decrease of snowpack depth over most of Europe causes snowpacks to melt faster (i.e. in less days) than before. 

How to cite: Fontrodona-Bach, A., Larsen, J., Woods, R., Schaefli, B., and Teuling, R.: Trends in snowmelt rates over Europe inferred from historical snow depth observations converted to SWE, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12760, 2021.

EGU21-6688 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Midwinter snow ablation patterns, drivers, and hydrologic consequences in the Western U.S.

Kayden Haleakala, Mekonnen Gebremichael, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

EGU21-16479 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

The mechanism of snow shift affect seasonal streamflow in the contiguous US

Lina Wang and Ross Woods

Climate warming has caused in a significant decrease in snowpack, increase in precipitation intensity and earlier melt onset. Based on earlier work published in 2014 on changes in streamflow resulting from a shift from snow towards rain, we analysed the sensitivity of seasonal streamflow to the average annual snow fraction in 253 catchments in CAMELS dataset, which have a record length more than 28 years and mean annual snow fraction larger than 15%. The result shows that places (or years) with higher mean annual snow fraction tend to have higher seasonal streamflow. We quantified seasonal sensitivity as a ratio of change in seasonal flow to change in annual snow fraction, for a given annual precipitation.  There are 91%,57% and 51% catchments which showed a positive sensitivity value for Spring, Summer and Winter streamflow, respectively. According to the results of seasonal sensitivity analysis in climate space, we found the largest seasonal sensitivity normally happens at the same regional climate. Places with higher average annual snow fraction tend to have the largest sensitivity in summer, while for places with lower annual snow fraction this largest sensitivity occurs in spring.

In order to explore the mechanism(s) by which snow fraction change affects seasonal streamflow, we summarized four hypothesised mechanisms from the literature: water-energy synchrony (Mechanism I), inputs exceed threshold (Mechanism II), demand-storage competition (Mechanism III), and energy partitioning (Mechanism IV). Most of the catchments in the western part of the contiguous US can be explained by the mechanism I, II, III and IV, while for catchments in the central US can be explained by mechanism II, III and IV. Catchments in the eastern part (and some scattered in the northern part) can be explained by mechanism III.  Other types of evidence are required to further distinguish between mechanisms in much of the USA. in further research we will use detailed data or hydrologic model to reproduce the hydrological process to find what are the hydrological processes responsible for precipitation phase partitioning changing with climate warming to influence catchment response. These findings would provide an evidence for how does snow affect hydrology, which may help to understand the effect of climate warming on future water resources in snow-dominated regions.

How to cite: Wang, L. and Woods, R.: The mechanism of snow shift affect seasonal streamflow in the contiguous US, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16479, 2021.

The river discharge of recently deglaciated headwater catchments shows strong variations at daily, seasonal and annual time-scales. These cycles are susceptible to changes in the near future due to rapid glacier retreat combined with warmer winters and earlier snowmelt. Low discharges, in particular, are not only driven by climatic conditions but are filtered by a number of geomorphological features, which are also rapidly evolving with glacier debuttressing, sediment transport and vegetation onset. Future water availability as well as discharge extremes of future deglaciated forefields can therefore only be explained by considering the co-evolution of both local climate and catchment geomorphology. Many hydrological predictions for high Alpine catchments fail to take into account such combined effects, which are relevant in better predicting winter low flow, as well as the recession behavior in autumn and potentially even peak flow events induced by later summer rainfall. These extremes are however of significant importance for ecosystem development on proglacial margins as well as for the management of hydropower, in particular of high elevation water.  In this study, we propose a detailed analysis of the yearly groundwater and river stage fluctuations of the proglacial zone of the Otemma glacier, one of the largest glaciers of the Swiss Alps. By decomposing the water fluctuations and comparing them with climate forcing, we analyze the role of key landscape features in smoothing and delaying the different water inputs. Using additional datasets of daily water electrical conductivity and water isotopes a finer description of the hydrological functions of these features is achieved. A perceptual model is then proposed, showing how the different water signals driven by climate are modified by the local geomorphology. We finally propose a new metric which encapsulates the hydrological effects of these landscape features and should allow for a better assessment of the filtering effect at the  catchment-scale of the different water input signals. Using such a simple metric and the perceptual model should help in building or assessing more realistic hydrological models where the complex hydro-geomorphological interactions are better represented.

How to cite: Müller, T., Schaefli, B., and Lane, S.: Assessing the effect of the geomorphological complexity of glacier forefields on the multi-temporal water dynamics will provide better future models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7182, 2021.

Distributed, physically based modelling of runoff routing in highly glacierized river basins is an extremely complicated task as glacier drainage systems functioning is very sophisticated, close to karst river systems but also dynamically developing within very short time periods. Accordingly, runoff routing of glacier melt water is most often based on the concept of linear storage. The number of reservoirs generally vary from 1 to 3. For example, one  ‘fast’ reservoir for melt  and  rain  in  glacierized  grid  cells in GERM model, three parallel different linear reservoirs representing snow, firn and ice in GSM-SOCONT model.

Here we test applicability of different machine learning techniques (gradient boosting, random forest, LSTM) for runoff routing in a highly glacierized river basin. We use the data from Djankuat alpine research catchment located in the North Caucasus (Russia) for the period of 2007­­-2019. The dataset contains different parameters measured with an hourly or sub-daily time step: water runoff, conductivity, turbidity, temperature, 18O, D content at the main gauging station; measurements of precipitation amount, standard meteorological parameters and radiation fluxes. Results of snow and ice melting modelling in the Djankuat river basin over a regular net with an hourly time step using energy-balance distributed A-Melt model are also used as input data.

Total runoff from the Djankuat river basin (1) and meltwater runoff according to isotopic hydrograph separation (2) were chosen as target functions. Different sets of features to predict the target functions were generated from the original time series using different combinations of the input parameters as well as variable lag times. To score different machine learning techniques and sets of features to predict target function we use correlation coefficient, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency index (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE).

The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 20-35-70024

How to cite: Rets, E., Fomichev, S., and Belozerov, E.: Testing different machine learning techniques for runoff routing in a highly glacierized Djankuat river basin (the North Caucasus, Russia)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4567, 2021.

EGU21-5299 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Glacier melt contribution to streamflow during extremely dry summers

Marit Van Tiel, Daphné Freudiger, Irene Kohn, Markus Weiler, Jan Seibert, and Kerstin Stahl

Extreme dry (and hot) summers, such as observed in Europe in the years 2003, 2015, 2018 and 2019, cause meteorological, hydrological and soil moisture droughts. These different types of droughts can have a range of negative impacts on, for instance, agricultural yield, water supply and hydropower production. The European Alps, also known as Europe’s water tower, potentially play an important role during such extreme summers by providing (extra) water from the melt of snow and ice. In this research study, we analyzed the streamflow conditions from a large sample of glacierized headwater catchments in the Swiss Alps during low flow years (1976, 1985, 1991, 2003, 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2019) observed downstream. Streamflow and its components (snow, ice and rain) were modelled with the HBV-light model for the period 1973-2020. These simulated streamflow components, together with observed total streamflow records, were compared between different catchments and different drought years. For each drought year, the winter conditions were examined, and the development of the drought situation over the summer was evaluated. To estimate the streamflow contribution of headwaters in the European Alps in such drought years in a situation without any glaciers, we also performed a model simulation where glaciers were assumed to have disappeared entirely. The results showed that glacier- and snowmelt contributed substantially to streamflow during these extreme years in the glacierized headwater catchments. In some cases, glacier ice provided up to three times as much melt than usually during summer. Catchments with a high glacier cover fraction usually showed a positive streamflow anomaly during these years. In 1991 and 2003, all catchments had an increased ice melt contribution, while in the other extreme years some catchments provided less ice melt contribution than average. Overall, this study shows that glaciers play an important role during low flow years and that a reduced glacier cover, or even completely retreated glaciers, will substantially reduce the buffer capacity of Europe’s water tower in the situation of meteorological drought.

How to cite: Van Tiel, M., Freudiger, D., Kohn, I., Weiler, M., Seibert, J., and Stahl, K.: Glacier melt contribution to streamflow during extremely dry summers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5299, 2021.

EGU21-9464 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Modeling winter season fluxes of water and energy in a temperate montane forest

Tomas Vogel, Michal Dohnal, Jana Votrubova, Jaromir Dusek, and Miroslav Tesar

Winter regimes affect significantly the long-term water and energy balance of mountainous areas in Central Europe. A recently developed numerical model is used to study near-surface fluxes of water and energy in the Liz catchment — a small headwater catchment of the Otava River, situated in the Southern Bohemia. The results of the numerical simulations are compared with high-resolution data recorded at the site of interest. The forest floor of the catchment is mostly covered by snow during winter. However, the snowpack is usually exposed to several snowmelt episodes over the season. The intensity, duration and frequency of these episodes is irregular and seems to be highly sensitive to changing climate. Increasing frequency of winter periods with limited or missing snow cover affects both water flow and heat transport in the catchment. Changes in the temporal distribution of snowmelt are reflected in changing runoff patterns.

 

How to cite: Vogel, T., Dohnal, M., Votrubova, J., Dusek, J., and Tesar, M.: Modeling winter season fluxes of water and energy in a temperate montane forest, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9464, 2021.

EGU21-15226 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Improved representation of forest snow processes in coarse-resolution models: lessons learnt from upscaling hyper-resolution simulations

Giulia Mazzotti, Clare Webster, Richard Essery, Johanna Malle, and Tobias Jonas

Forest snow cover dynamics affect hydrological regimes, ecosystem processes, and climate feedbacks, and thus need to be captured by model applications that operate across a wide range of spatial scales. At large scales and coarse model resolutions, high spatial variability of the processes shaping forest snow cover evolution creates a major modelling challenge. Variability of canopy-snow interactions is determined by heterogeneous canopy structure and can only be explicitly resolved with hyper-resolution models (<5m).

Here, we address this challenge with model upscaling experiments with the forest snow model FSM2, using hyper-resolution simulations as intermediary between experimental data and coarse-resolution simulations. When run at 2-m resolution, FSM2 is shown to capture the spatial variability of forest snow dynamics with a high level of detail: Its accurate performance is verified at the level of individual energy balance components based on extensive, spatially distributed sub-canopy measurements of micrometeorological and snow variables, obtained with mobile multi-sensor platforms. Results from hyper-resolution simulations over a 150,000 m2 domain are then compared to spatially lumped, coarse-resolution runs, where 50m x 50m grid cells are represented by one model run only. For the spatially lumped simulations, we evaluate alternative upscaling strategies, aiming to explore the representation of forest snow processes at model resolutions coarser than the spatial scales at which these processes vary and interact.

Different upscaling strategies exhibited large discrepancies in simulated (1) distribution of snow water equivalent at peak of winter, and (2) timing of snow disappearance. Our results indicate that detailed canopy structure metrics, as included in hyper-resolution runs, are necessary to capture the spatial variability of forest snow processes even at coarser resolutions. They further demonstrate the relevance of accounting for unresolved sub-grid variability in snowmelt calculations even at relatively small spatial aggregation scales. By identifying important model features, which allow coarse-resolution simulations to approximate spatially averaged results of corresponding hyper-resolution simulations, this work provides recommendations for modelling forest snow processes in medium- to large-scale applications.

How to cite: Mazzotti, G., Webster, C., Essery, R., Malle, J., and Jonas, T.: Improved representation of forest snow processes in coarse-resolution models: lessons learnt from upscaling hyper-resolution simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15226, 2021.

EGU21-2920 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

How sensitive is discharge at the rain-snow transition zone to the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water inputs?

Leonie Kiewiet, Katherine Hale, Scott Havens, Ernesto Trujillo, Andrew Hedrick, Mark Seyfried, Stephanie Kampf, and Sarah E. Godsey

Changes in rain/snowfall apportionments are already being observed in mountain environments because of climate change. Increases in temperatures are leading to the displacement of rain-snow transition zones towards higher elevations, and are impacting snowpack storage, discharge timing and magnitude and low-flow patterns. To assess sensitivity of discharge to such changes, we investigated variability in surface water inputs (SWI = snowmelt + rainfall) in a semi-arid, 1.8 km2 headwater catchment in the rain-snow transition zone in Idaho (USA). We used a spatially distributed snowpack model (iSnobal/Automated Water Supply Model, AWSM) to investigate catchment SWI during four years (2005, 2010, 2011, 2014) with contrasting climatological conditions, and compared these results to measured streamflow and soil moisture. Results are evaluated using continuous measurements of snow depths at eleven weather stations, one lidar snow depth survey, and high-resolution satellite imagery (PSScene4Band) used to quantify the persistence of the snowpack across the catchment. We found that the model results agreed well with the spatial (r2: 0.86 in 2009 compared to lidar-derived snow depths) and temporal (median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for normalized snow depths: 0.76 compared to weather station snow depth measurements) variations of the snowpack. The model results suggested that simulated snow-covered area was a good predictor for simulated SWE (range r2: 0.60 to 0.78 for all modeled years) during most of the snow-covered season, which indicates the usefulness of snow-covered area to quantify SWE at the rain-snow transition zone. We found that snow drifting and aspect-controlled processes caused large differences in snow depths across the watershed, with some snowdrifts producing SWI that was 3x greater than from nearby low elevation, south-facing slopes. In years with a lower snow fraction of total precipitation, the spatial distribution of SWI was much more homogeneous and stream discharge in spring time was lower, even though significant rainstorms occurred during that time. Indeed discharge response to SWI varied by season: in late spring/early summer, discharge was produced when basin-wide shallow subsurface storage exceeded ~150mm whereas in late fall/early winter, discharge was most responsive to precipitation after the shallow subsurface storage exceeded 250-300 mm. This indicates the importance of contributions from other, possibly deeper, flow paths, and is also consistent with the observation that years with a lower snow fraction did not have lower discharge nor earlier stream drying in summer. Nonetheless, the dry-out date at the catchment outlet was positively correlated to the last day at which there was snow present in the catchment as derived from the model results for the simulated years, and for four additional years (2016-2019) for years in which the high-resolution satellite imagery was available. This indicates the importance of snowdrifts for sustaining streamflow and the need for spatially-distributed modeling of the snowpack at the rain-snow transition zone, rather than using basin-average values. While extensive data may be required to understand the breadth of catchment responses in rain-snow transition zone, some critical parameters such as dry-out date can be determined from high-resolution satellite images.

How to cite: Kiewiet, L., Hale, K., Havens, S., Trujillo, E., Hedrick, A., Seyfried, M., Kampf, S., and Godsey, S. E.: How sensitive is discharge at the rain-snow transition zone to the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water inputs?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2920, 2021.

EGU21-10721 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Spatial estimation of snow water equivalent by modeling of the melting of seasonal snow and glacier in Iceland

Andri Gunnarsson, Sigurður M. Garðarsson, Tómas Jóhannesson, and Finnur Pálsson

Runoff from seasonal snow- and glacier melt is critical for hydropower production and reservoir storage in Iceland as the energy system is strongly dependent on summer inflow. The isolation and high natural climate variability can pose a risk to the energy security of the power system as drought conditions and low-flow periods are usually not foreseen in great advance. Forecasting the timing, spatial distribution and magnitude of seasonal melt is a challenge and influences the operational control of energy infrastructure and long-term resource planning. As hydropower generation provides over 72% of the total average energy produced in Iceland, accurate forecasting of seasonal melt is essential for the operation of the national power system.

In this study, we present results from a spatially-distributed energy-balance model combined with gap-filled satellite-based time series of fractional snow cover and surface albedo from MODIS. The model reconstructs seasonal snow and glacier melt for the Icelandic highlands providing insight into the spatio-temporal distribution of snow water equivalent over the study period.  The reconstruction method uses daily, satellite-derived estimates of fractional snow cover and albedo to scale the melt flux at every pixel. Modeled snow melt was integrated over time, reconstructing the maximum snowpack/glacier melt for each year. The model runs at a 500 m spatial resolution, with a daily timestep from 1 March to 30 September during 2000 to 2019 spanning the general seasonal snow and glacier melt period.

Energy-balance components were validated with in-situ observations from the Icelandic highlands and a network of stations operated annually at various Icelandic glaciers. Ground-based measurements of snow water equivalent (snow pits, surface mass balance) were used to validate the model performance as well as discharge observations. Simulations indicate a good performance compared with summer glacier mass balance records from Vatnajökull, Hofsjökull, Langjökull and Mýrdalsjökull. Sparse and discontinuous measurements of seasonal snow water equivalent from snow pillows or transects from snow courses were available from a few location, providing limited capabilities for direct validation for seasonal snow. Discharge observations in highland catchments indicate acceptable performance.

The results allow for quantification of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent, relationships to elevation and other topographical parameters as well as between basins and years. Discrimination between seasonal snow and glacier melt on a catchment scale is valuable to analyze the annual variability in these two critical hydrological water sources and how they are related.

How to cite: Gunnarsson, A., Garðarsson, S. M., Jóhannesson, T., and Pálsson, F.: Spatial estimation of snow water equivalent by modeling of the melting of seasonal snow and glacier in Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10721, 2021.

EGU21-14972 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Exploring the use of gpr and satellite-based snow data for snowmelt runoff predictions

Ilaria Clemenzi, David Gustafsson, Jie Zhang, Björn Norell, Wolf Marchand, Rickard Pettersson, and Veijo Pohjola

Snow in the mountains is the result of the interplay between meteorological conditions, e.g., precipitation, wind and solar radiation, and landscape features, e.g., vegetation and topography. For this reason, it is highly variable in time and space. It represents an important water storage for several sectors of the society including tourism, ecology and hydropower. The estimation of the amount of snow stored in winter and available in the form of snowmelt runoff can be strategic for their sustainability. In the hydropower sector, for example, the occurrence of higher snow and snowmelt runoff volumes at the end of the spring and in the early summer compared to the estimated one can substantially impact reservoir regulation with energy and economical losses. An accurate estimation of the snow volumes and their spatial and temporal distribution is thus essential for spring flood runoff prediction. Despite the increasing effort in the development of new acquisition techniques, the availability of extensive and representative snow and density measurements for snow water equivalent estimations is still limited. Hydrological models in combination with data assimilation of ground or remote sensing observations is a way to overcome these limitations. However, the impact of using different types of snow observations on snowmelt runoff predictions is, little understood. In this study we investigated the potential of assimilating in situ and remote sensing snow observations to improve snow water equivalent estimates and snowmelt runoff predictions. We modelled the seasonal snow water equivalent distribution in the Lake Överuman catchment, Northern Sweden, which is used for hydropower production. Simulations were performed using the semi-distributed hydrological model HYPE for the snow seasons 2017-2020. For this purpose, a snowfall distribution model based on wind-shelter factors was included to represent snow spatial distribution within model units. The units consist of 2.5x2.5 km2 grid cells, which were further divided into hydrological response units based on elevation, vegetation and aspect. The impact on the estimation of the total catchment mean snow water equivalent and snowmelt runoff volume were evaluated using for data assimilation, gpr-based snow water equivalent data acquired along survey lines in the catchment in the early spring of the four years, snow water equivalent data obtained by a machine learning algorithm and satellite-based fractional snow cover data. Results show that the wind-shelter based snow distribution model was able to represent a similar spatial distribution as the gpr survey lines, when assessed on the catchment level. Deviations in the model performance within and between specific gpr survey lines indicate issues with the spatial distribution of input precipitation, and/or need to include explicit representation of snow drift between model units. The explicit snow distribution model also improved runoff simulations, and the ability of the model to improve forecast through data assimilation.

How to cite: Clemenzi, I., Gustafsson, D., Zhang, J., Norell, B., Marchand, W., Pettersson, R., and Pohjola, V.: Exploring the use of gpr and satellite-based snow data for snowmelt runoff predictions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14972, 2021.

EGU21-2554 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Sentinel-1 snow depth assimilation improves river discharge simulations in the western Alps

Isis Brangers, Hans Lievens, Augusto Getirana, Sujay Kumar, and Gabrielle De Lannoy

In many of the world’s mountainous regions, river discharge is largely influenced by the seasonal melt of snow. Therefore, accurate information on the amount of water stored as snow is essential for water management and flood forecasting. However, there are large uncertainties in model simulations of snow depth, partly due to uncertain precipitation estimates in mountain regions with complex topography. A study by Lievens et al. (2019) showed the potential of Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite observations to provide snow depth estimates at 1 km spatial and ~weekly temporal resolution in mountain regions. In this study, we assimilated these retrievals into the Noah Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) v3.6 land surface model for the western Alps using an ensemble Kalman filter. The land surface model was coupled to the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) routing scheme to also provide estimates of river discharge. With S1 data assimilation, the snow depth estimates improved, reducing the bias from 0.23 m to 0.05 m compared to in situ measurements. Preliminary results also show improved discharge simulations mainly in mountain catchments at high elevations that are less prone to regulations (e.g., by dams). This study demonstrates the capability of the S1 snow depth retrievals to improve not only snow depth estimates, but also the estimation of snow melt water contributions to river discharge.

How to cite: Brangers, I., Lievens, H., Getirana, A., Kumar, S., and De Lannoy, G.: Sentinel-1 snow depth assimilation improves river discharge simulations in the western Alps, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2554, 2021.

EGU21-15300 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Performance and sensitivity of a spatially distributed hydrological conceptual flood model with snow components.

François Colleoni, Catherine Fouchier, Pierre-André Garambois, Pierre Javelle, Maxime Jay-Allemand, and Didier Organde

In France, flash floods are responsible for a significant proportion of damages caused by natural hazards, either human or material. Hence, advanced modeling tools are needed to perform effective predictions. However for mountainous catchments snow modeling components may be required to correctly simulate river discharge.

This contribution investigates the implementation and constrain of snow components in the spatially distributed SMASH* platform (Jay-Allemand et al. 2020). The goal is to upgrade model structure and spatially distributed calibration strategies for snow-influenced catchments, as well as to investigate parametric sensitivity and equifinality issues. First, the implementation of snow modules of varying complexity is addressed based on Cemaneige (Valery et al. 2010) in the spatially distributed framework. Next, tests are performed on a sample of 55 catchments in the French North Alps. Numerical experiments and global sensitivity analysis enable to determine pertinent combinations of flow components (including a slow flow one) and calibration parameters. Spatially uniform or distributed calibrations using a variational method (Jay-Allemand 2020) are performed and compared on the dataset, for different model structures and constrains. These tests show critical improvements in outlet discharge modeling by adding slow flow and snow modules, especially considering spatially varying parameters. Current and future works focus on testing and improving the constrains of snow modules and calibration strategy, as well as potential validation and multiobjective calibration with snow signatures gained from in situ or satellite data. 

*SMASH: Spatially-distributed Modelling and ASsimilation for Hydrology, platform developped by INRAE-Hydris corp. for operational applications in the french flood forecast system VigicruesFlash

How to cite: Colleoni, F., Fouchier, C., Garambois, P.-A., Javelle, P., Jay-Allemand, M., and Organde, D.: Performance and sensitivity of a spatially distributed hydrological conceptual flood model with snow components., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15300, 2021.

Considering the snow effect on land and atmospheric processes, accurate representation of seasonal snow evolution including the distribution and melt volume, is highly imperative to strengthen water resources development trajectories in mountainous regions. However, along with the high sensitivity to climate change, the limitation of reliable snow-melt estimation in these regions is further exacerbated with data scarcity. This study thus attempts to develop relatively simpler degree-day snow-models driven by freely available gridded datasets for data scarce snow-fed regions. The methodology uses readily available MODIS imageries to calibrate the snow-melt models on snow-distribution instead of snow-amount. In addition, freely available cloud masks from geostationary satellites are also used to complement the snow-melt models. The major advantage of this approach is the possibility of regional calibration using freely available reasonably accurate climate data, without the need of direct snow depth measurements. These models offer relative simplicity and plausible alternatives to data intensive physically based model as well as in-situ measurements and have a wide scale applicability allowing immediate verification with point measurements.

Bavaria region in Germany is selected for this study.  E-OBS (European Observations) gridded precipitation and temperature datasets (0.25 degrees) are considered here instead of the ground measured data to replicate “a data scarce scenario” as in most of the mountainous regions around the globe. The coarser meteorological inputs are downscaled applying the delta method using WorldClim monthly climate surfaces to 0.0833 degrees (~1km) grids. MODIS images are also resampled and upscaled to 1km resolution for uniformity. The qualitative pixel-to-pixel comparison suggest a very good agreement with MODIS data and the calibrated parameter sets depict plausible temporal stability.

The snow-melt volume will be further used in HBV hydrological model as standalone input to simulate the streamflow in one of the snow-fed catchments in Bavaria and to evaluate the performance of this approach in streamflow. The abstract will the updated as soon as the results are available.

How to cite: Gyawali, D. R. and Bárdossy, A.: Performance evaluation of gridded climate data in snow-melt models calibrated by spatial snow-cover observations from MODIS, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16376, 2021.

EGU21-80 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Future changes in snow and its influence on seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia

Michal Jenicek, Jan Hnilica, Ondrej Nedelcev, and Vaclav Sipek

Mountains are often called as “water towers” because they substantially affect hydrology of downstream areas. However, snow storages are decreasing and snow melts earlier mainly due to air temperature increase. These changes largely affect seasonal runoff distribution, including summer low flows and thus influence the water availability. Therefore, it is important to investigate the future change in relation between snow and summer low flows, specifically to assess a wide range of hydrological responses to different climate predictions. Therefore, the main objectives of this study were 1) to simulate the future changes in snow storages for a large set of mountain catchments representing different elevations and to 2) analyse how the changes in snow storages will affect streamflow seasonality and low flows in the future reflecting a wide range of climate predictions. The predictions of the future climate from EURO-CORDEX experiment for 59 mountain catchments in Czechia were considered. These data were further used to drive a bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, to simulate individual components of the rainfall-runoff process for the reference period and three future periods.

Future simulations showed a dramatic decrease in snow-related variables for all catchments at all elevations. For example, annual maximum SWE decreased by 30%-70% until the end of the 21st century compared to the current climate. Additionally, the snow will melt on average by 3-4 weeks earlier in the future. The results also showed the large variability between individual climate chains and indicated that the increase in air temperature causing the decrease in snowfall might be partly compensated by the increase in winter precipitation. Expected changes in snowpack will cause by a month earlier period with highest streamflow during melting season in addition to lower spring runoff volume due to lower snowmelt inputs. The future climate scenarios leading to overall dry conditions in summer are associated with both lowest summer precipitation and seasonal snowpack. The expected lower snow storages might therefore contribute to more extreme low flow periods. The results also showed considerably smaller changes for the RCP 2.6 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 both in terms snow storages and seasonal runoff. The results are therefore important for mitigation and adaptation strategy related to climate change impacts in mountain regions.

How to cite: Jenicek, M., Hnilica, J., Nedelcev, O., and Sipek, V.: Future changes in snow and its influence on seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-80, 2021.

EGU21-2714 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Timing and magnitude of runoff in Austrian mountain catchments in a warming climate

Sarah Hanus, Harry Zekollari, Gerrit Schoups, Roland Kaitna, and Markus Hrachowitz

Hydrological regimes of alpine catchments are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change due to their dependence on snow dynamics. While seasonal changes have been studied extensively, studies on changes in the timing and magnitude of annual extremes remain rare. This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six alpine catchments in Austria by using a topography-driven semi-distributed hydrological model and 14 climate projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The study catchments represent a range of alpine catchments, from pluvial-nival to nivo-glacial, as the study focuses on providing a comprehensive picture of future runoff changes on catchments at different altitudes. Simulations of 1981-2010 are compared to projections of 2071-2100 by examining changes in timing and magnitude of annual maximum and minimum flows as well as monthly discharges.

Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum flows by 9 to 31 days on average and an extension of the potential flood season by 1 to 3 months for high elevation catchments. For lower elevation catchments, changes in timing of annual maximum flows are less pronounced. Magnitudes of annual maximum flows are likely to increase, with four catchments exhibiting larger increases under RCP 4.5 compared to RCP 8.5. The timing of minimum annual discharges shifts to earlier in the winter months for high elevation catchments, whereas for lower elevation catchments a shift from winter to autumn is observed. While all catchments show an increase in mean magnitude of minimum flows under RCP 4.5, this is not the case for two low elevation catchments under RCP 8.5.

Our results suggest a relationship between the altitude of catchments and changes in timing of annual maximum and minimum flows and magnitude of low flows, whereas no relationship between altitude and magnitude of annual maximum flows could be distinguished.

How to cite: Hanus, S., Zekollari, H., Schoups, G., Kaitna, R., and Hrachowitz, M.: Timing and magnitude of runoff in Austrian mountain catchments in a warming climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2714, 2021.

EGU21-11917 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

Potential impacts of warming climate on future water resources and hydropower production in a glacierized catchment in Western Himalaya

Tejal Shirsat, Anil Kulkarni, Andrea Momblanch, Surjeet Singh Randhawa, and Ian Holman

The Himalayan region has a large hydropower potential due to the natural topographic gradient and abundance of water resource from rainfall, snow and glacier melt. However, future water availability in the Himalayan streams is likely to be altered due to climatic conditions, which necessitates an assessment of hydropower investments, especially for small run-of-the-river projects. Here, we study the future glacio-hydrological changes in a small catchment located in the Upper Beas basin, in Western Himalaya in India, and their impacts on the operation of two small hydropower projects with contrasting hydrological requirements. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model is used to integrate and analyse changes in cryosphere, hydrology and hydropower production in the middle and end of the 21st century using multiple climate models representing different types of future scenarios under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In response to projected climate, the snow and glacier melt contribution to annual discharge declines from 34% in the baseline to 16.5% (RCP4.5) and 13.8% (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. The total streamflow shows broad uncertainty in magnitude and direction of change but shows a noticeable seasonal shift in the hydrological cycle. Of the two hydropower projects, the plant that utilizes high flows with low hydraulic head shows a behaviour similar to streamflow projections resulting in 13% (RCP45) and 19.7% (RCP85) increase in annual power generation by the end of the century arising from the increased hydropower potential of low flows and the rise in precipitation. The second power project that relies on lesser flows with high head maintains its designed power production consistently throughout the century in all the climate change scenarios. The differing sensitivity of the power projects to climate change is influenced by future changes in the runoff as well as by their design. Thus, this study provides insights into the climate-adaptive development and planning of small hydropower projects in the Himalayan region.

How to cite: Shirsat, T., Kulkarni, A., Momblanch, A., Singh Randhawa, S., and Holman, I.: Potential impacts of warming climate on future water resources and hydropower production in a glacierized catchment in Western Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11917, 2021.

Glacierized mountain areas are witnessing strong changes in their streamflow generation processes, influencing their capacity to provide crucial water resources to downstream environments. Shifting precipitation patterns, a warming climate, changing snow dynamics and retreating glaciers are occurring simultaneously, driven by complex physical feedbacks. To predict and diagnose future hydrological behaviour in these glacierized catchments, a semi-distributed, physically-based hydrological model including both on and off-glacier process representation was applied to Peyto basin, a 21 km2 glacierized alpine catchment in the Canadian Rockies. The model was forced with bias-corrected outputs from a dynamically downscaled, 4-km resolution Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) simulation, for the 2000-2015 and 2085-2100 period.  The future WRF runs had boundary conditions perturbed using RCP8.5 late century climate.  The simulations show by the end-of-century, the catchment shifts from a glacial to a nival regime. The increase in precipitation nearly compensates for the decreased ice melt associated with glacier retreat, with a decrease in annual streamflow of only 7%. Peak flow shifts from July to June and August streamflow is reduced by 68%. Changes in blowing snow transport and sublimation, avalanching, evaporation and subsurface water storage also contribute to the strong hydrological shift in the Peyto catchment. A sensitivity analysis to uncertainty in forcing meteorology reveals that streamflow volume is more sensitive to variations in precipitation whereas streamflow timing and variability are more sensitive to variations in temperature. The combination of the temperature and precipitation variations caused substantial changes both in the future snowpack and in the streamflow pattern. By including high-resolution atmospheric modelling and unprecedented both on and off-glacier process-representation in a physically-based hydrological model, the results provide a particularly comprehensive evaluation of the hydrological changes occurring in high-mountain environments in response to climate change.

How to cite: Aubry-Wake, C. and Pomeroy, J. W.: Exploring the future hydrology of a Canadian Rockies glacierized catchment and its sensitivity to meteorological forcings, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3565, 2021.

EGU21-16342 | vPICO presentations | HS2.1.7

The fate of the snow in the western Himalaya region: A climate change perspective

Santosh Nepal, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, Saurav Pradhananga, Sven Kralisch, Denis Samyn, Mohammad Tayib Bromand, Milad Dildar, Fazlullah Durrani, Farangis Rassouly, Fayezurahman Azizi, Wahidullah Salehi, Rohullah Malikzooi, Peter Krause, Sujan Koirala, and Pierre Chevallier

Snow is a crucial component of the hydrological cycle in the Western Himalaya, where the warming climate is already impacting precipitation and melt runoff patterns. In this study, we investigated the future evolution of snow cover and snowmelt in the Panjshir catchment (2,210 km2) of Afghanistan. Located in northern Afghanistan, the Panjshir catchment of the Kabul river basin is the westernmost catchment of the transboundary Indus river system. The climate in Panjshir catchment is characterised by warm-dry summer and cold-wet winter with a large spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Water from snowmelt is used in various sectors in downstream regions, and thus plays a critical role in securing the livelihood of millions of people.

 

In order to analyse the future evolution of snow-related processes under climate change, a few global climate model simulations from CMIP5 climate datasets for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 which showed reasonable performance when compared with ERA5 data for the historic period (1981-2010) were selected. The selected models were then segregated into two groups: those projecting a cold-wet climate with a 13-28% and 2.5-4.9oC increase in precipitation and temperature respectively, and those projecting a warm-dry climate with a 26-40% decrease in precipitation and a 4.3-7.8oC increase in temperature by the end of the 21st century. These GCMs were downscaled to a higher resolution using empirical statistical downscaling. To simulate the snow processes, we used the distributed cryospheric-hydrological J2000 model.

 

Results of our analysis show that the J2000 model captures the snow cover dynamics well in the historical period (2003-2018) compared to the improved MODIS-derived snow cover with a coefficient of determination of 0.94. The model was then forced by climate projections from the selected GCMs to quantify the future changes in snow cover area, snow storage and snowmelt. A consistent decrease in decadal snow cover is projected in which the warm-dry models showed a higher decrease than cold-wet models. A 10-18 % reduction in annual snow cover is projected by the cold-wet models whereas a 22-36% reduction is expected from the warm-dry models. At the seasonal scale, across all models and scenarios, the snow cover in autumn and spring seasons are projected to reduce by as much as 25%, with an increase in winter and spring snowmelt and a decrease in summer snowmelt. The projected changes in the seasonal availability of snowmelt-driven water resources in the Panjshir region have direct implications for the water-dependent sectors in the downstream regions and highlight a need for a better understanding of current water usage and future adaptation practices in the Western Himalaya. 

How to cite: Nepal, S., Khatiwada, K. R., Pradhananga, S., Kralisch, S., Samyn, D., Bromand, M. T., Dildar, M., Durrani, F., Rassouly, F., Azizi, F., Salehi, W., Malikzooi, R., Krause, P., Koirala, S., and Chevallier, P.: The fate of the snow in the western Himalaya region: A climate change perspective, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16342, 2021.

HS2.2.1 – Understanding hydrological processes across spatio-temporal scales: from data to model

EGU21-15460 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Aggregating over land surface heterogeneity systematically biases evapotranspiration estimates in large-scale evaporation models

Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Massimiliano Zappa, and Kirchner James

Land surface models are highly uncertain in estimating evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes, and differ substantially in their projections of how ET will evolve in the future. Biases in estimated ET fluxes will affect the partitioning between sensible and latent heat, and thus alter simulated temperatures and model predictions of droughts and heatwaves. One potential source of bias is the "aggregation bias" that arises whenever nonlinear processes, such as those that regulate ET fluxes, are modeled using averages of heterogeneous inputs. Here we demonstrate that this aggregation bias leads to substantial overestimates in ET fluxes in a typical large-scale land surface model. The proposed methodology can be used to correct for aggregation biases in ET estimates by quantifying the effects of finer-resolution spatiotemporal variability in ET drivers at each modeling time step, without explicitly representing sub-grid heterogeneities in large-scale land surface models. 

How to cite: Rouholahnejad Freund, E., Zappa, M., and James, K.: Aggregating over land surface heterogeneity systematically biases evapotranspiration estimates in large-scale evaporation models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15460, 2021.

EGU21-9077 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Effect of surface heterogeneity on hyper-resolution simulation of soil moisture

Junhan Zeng, Xing Yuan, and Peng Ji

Due to the land surface complexity, soil moisture immensely varies both spatially and temporally. However, the combined effects of land surface complexity and key hydrological processes (e.g., subsurface lateral flow) on fine-scale soil moisture heterogeneity remain elusive due to the scarcity of observations. Benefit from improvements in hyper-resolution land surface modeling, it provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the fine-scale soil moisture heterogeneity over a large region. Here, we use the Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Process model version 2 (CSSPv2), which considers subsurface lateral flow, to perform hyperresolution (100-m) simulations over ten selected regions with different climate. We find that the heterogeneities of vegetation, soil texture, precipitation or their combinations increase soil moisture heterogeneity significantly (p<0.01). If only the topography heterogeneity presents, subsurface lateral flow increases the soil moisture heterogeneity significantly (p<0.01). However, the effect of subsurface lateral flow has been reduced by combining topography heterogeneity with other surface heterogeneities, with a few regions showing decreased soil moisture heterogeneity mainly because of the combined effect of subsurface lateral flow and soil texture heterogeneity. This study suggests that soil texture heterogeneity does not necessarily interact synergistically with physical processes (e.g., subsurface lateral flow) for increasing soil moisture heterogeneity, although they can increase the heterogeneity separately.

How to cite: Zeng, J., Yuan, X., and Ji, P.: Effect of surface heterogeneity on hyper-resolution simulation of soil moisture, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9077, 2021.

EGU21-63 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Effects of Geological Structures on Rainfall-Runoff Processes in Headwater Catchments in a Sedimentary Rock Mountain

Jun Inaoka, Ken'ichirou Kosugi, Naoya Masaoka, Tetsushi Itokazu, and Kimihito Nakamura

To clarify rainfall-runoff responses in mountainous areas is essential for disaster prediction as well as water resource management. Runoff is considered to be affected by many factors including evapotranspiration, rainfall, topography, geology, vegetation, and land use. Among them, topography is said to be the most affectable factor. However, previous studies focused on geologies revealed that though catchments in crystalline mountains have less differences among runoffs, catchments in sedimentary rock mountains show great variation in their runoffs. To explain this difference, the geological structures were expected to be the key of runoffs in sedimentary rock mountains. In other words, particularly in headwater catchments located in sedimentary rock mountains, dips and strikes may significantly affect rainwater discharge. Moreover, the groundwater system can significantly be affected by the hydraulic anisotropy originated from geological stratigraphy. Additionally, in sedimentary rock mountains, previous studies suggested convergence of groundwater flows in the direction of strikes, but the effects of dips and strikes on rainfall-runoff responses were not investigated. Furthermore, none of these previous studies focused on the effects of geological structures on storm runoff responses. Therefore, based on the simultaneous observation of twelve catchments that lie radially from a single, isolated mountain peak, this study aims to clarify the effects of dips and strikes, which characterize sedimentary rock mountains, on water discharge.

The results obtained were as follows: (1) Even though the topographic wetness index (TWI) distributions of the twelve catchments were similar, there were significant differences in their runoff characteristics; (2) Catchments with average flow direction oriented toward the strike direction (strike-oriented catchments) are characterized by large baseflows; (3) Catchments with average flow direction oriented toward the opposite dip direction (opposite dip-oriented catchments) are steep, and this results in quick storm runoff generation; (4) Catchments with average flow direction oriented toward the dip direction (dip-oriented catchments) are gentle, and this results in delayed storm runoff generation. It was supposed that in strike-oriented catchments, large quantities of groundwater flowing along the bedding planes owing to hydraulic anisotropy, exfiltrate and sustain the large amount of the observed baseflow, i.e., in strike-oriented catchments, runoff is directly controlled by geological structures. On the other hand, in opposite dip-oriented and dip-oriented catchments, runoff is indirectly controlled by geological structures, i.e., geological structures affect slope gradients, which result in differences in storm runoff generation. Thus, this study clearly explains that geological structures significantly affect rainfall-runoff responses in headwater catchments located in sedimentary rock mountains.

How to cite: Inaoka, J., Kosugi, K., Masaoka, N., Itokazu, T., and Nakamura, K.: Effects of Geological Structures on Rainfall-Runoff Processes in Headwater Catchments in a Sedimentary Rock Mountain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-63, 2021.

EGU21-208 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Processes of runoff formation at the Putorana Plateau (Central Siberia, Russia)

Anastasiia Zemlianskova, Olga Makarieva, and Nataliia Nesterova

The Putorana Plateau is located in the North-West of the Central Siberian Plateau in the Krasnoyarsk Territory in permafrost zone. Some mountain peaks reach a height of 1400 - 1700 m. The plateau is composed of stepped canyons formed by the outpouring of a huge mass of red-hot basalts. The Putorana Plateau is the territory that is still unexplored in hydrological terms. Climate change contributes to an increase in the thickness of seasonal thawing, therefore, the conditions of runoff formation change.

The purpose of the work is to study the factors of runoff formation, including the research of geocryological conditions based on short-term expedition data of the State Hydrological Institute (St. Petersburg, Russia) collected in small catchments in 1988-1990.

The object of study is the catchment of the stream Dupkun (an area of 2.75 sq. km), which is located in the basin of the Kureyka river basin, the right tributary of Yenisei River in the southwestern part of the Putorana Plateau. The maximum height of the catchment is 1228 m, and the hydrological gauge is located at an altitude of 923 m. The average slope of the catchment area is 12°. The landscape is a moss-grass mountain tundra, and perennial snowfields are also formed.

The expedition studies in the period from July 19 to September 4, 1990 included the collection of hydrometeorological information, the determination of soil characteristics (moisture content, temperature, structure at different depths and landscapes), and the study of snow cover. The route studies were conducted to determine the characteristics of landscapes, vegetation and soils in the basins of the rivers Kureyka and Khantayka.

The data of the expedition studies were processed, digitized and systematized.  Based on the collected material, the water balance of the stream Dupkun was calculated. The presence of perennial snowfields has a significant impact on the formation of runoff. At the beginning of observations, the area of snowfields was 15 %, the average snow height was 2.6 m, and the average density was 0.7 g / cm3. At the end of observations, snowfields occupied 8% of the catchment area. For 20 days, the snowmelt depth was 38 mm, the precipitation reached 140 mm, and the runoff was 167 mm. The runoff coefficient is 0.89. During the entire observation period, the runoff reached 355 mm.

These observations are considerable value due to the lack of knowledge of the geocryological, landscape and hydrological conditions of the Putorana Plateau. Since there are practically no hydrological stations in this region that study the processes of flow formation, the collected data become even more unique. Extremely scarce data allowed to conduct the assessment and verification of the parameters of the hydrological model "Hydrograph". The developed set of the model parameters was used to simulate the river flow of tundra landscapes of the Putorana Plateau and assess its contribution to the formation of the water balance of the territory in the current climate.

The study was supported by the RFBR (project No. 19-55-80028).

How to cite: Zemlianskova, A., Makarieva, O., and Nesterova, N.: Processes of runoff formation at the Putorana Plateau (Central Siberia, Russia), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-208, 2021.

A recent initiative by the hydrologic community identified processes that control hillslope-riparian-stream-groundwater interactions as one of the major unsolved scientific problems in Hydrology. It is a long-time argument among hydrologists whether to eliminate the minor details from field-based costing a lot of time, effort, and resources to understand the hydrological process in watershed scale. The modelling approaches are helpful is these cases by focusing on the dominant controllers and might/might'nt bypassing the implications from minor details. In this work, a conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for hilly watersheds is used with satellite-based hydrometeorological inputs to parameterize, and thus understand by calibration and validation, at Koshi River Basin, a partly hilly watershed in Himalaya. The semi-distributed model is operated by dividing the river basin into small grids of around 1km2, each representing a micro-watershed. Majority of the model concept is drawn from fill and spill approach from previous literature, observations from plot-scale hillslope experiments, and macropore characterization from dye-tracer experiments, which are upscaled at micro-watershed scale. The parameterization in the rainfall-runoff model includes the daily average variables namely, threshold for runoff generation (T), gradient of runoff generation rate (S), saturated hydraulic conductivity for hillslope aquifers (Ksat), and aquifer thickness limit (D). Variable ranges of these parameters were simulated to find the best values (T = 1±0.25cm; S = 0.6 – 0.1; Ksat ≈ 105 – 1010 times original Ksat; and D = 1m). These ranges resulted in over (NSE = 0.6; R2 = 0.65) during calibration and validation for daily flow volume at the outlet. In these simulations, the Ksat multiplied with factors at several orders higher scale and producing good NSE values shows domination of preferential pathways in runoff generation process. This might represent a flow similar to that of overland flow affecting the surface runoff volume at river basin scale. This model could be used for water budgeting studies in hilly watersheds where several hillslopes dominated by macropores are present.

How to cite: Padhee, S. K. and Dutta, S.: Macropore domination in runoff generation process: A case study by hydrological modelling in Hilly Watersheds of Koshi River Basin, Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14425, 2021.

EGU21-4952 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Exploring hydrological processes at a small agricultural catchment in the Czech Republic

Tailin Li, Nina Noreika, Jakub Jeřábek, Tomáš Dostál, and David Zumr

A better understanding of hydrological processes in agricultural catchments is not only crucial to hydrologists but also helpful for local farmers. Therefore, we have built the freely-available web-based WALNUD dataset (Water in Agricultural Landscape – NUčice Database) for our experimental catchment Nučice (0.53 km2), the Czech Republic. We have included observed precipitation, air temperature, stream discharge, and soil moisture in the dataset. Furthermore, we have applied numerical modelling techniques to investigate the hydrological processes (e.g. soil moisture variability, water balance) at the experimental catchment using the dataset.

The Nučice catchment, established in 2011, serves for the observation of rainfall-runoff processes, soil erosion and water balance of the cultivated landscape. The average altitude is 401 m a.s.l., the mean land slope is 3.9 %, and the climate is humid continental (mean annual temperature 7.9 °C, average annual precipitation 630 mm). The catchment consists of three fields covering over 95 % of the area. There is a narrow stream which begins as a subsurface drainage pipe in the uppermost field draining the water at catchment. The typical crops are winter wheat, rapeseed, mustard and alfalfa. The installed equipment includes a standard meteorological station, several rain gauges distributed in the area of the basin, and an H flume to monitor the stream discharge, water turbidity and basic water quality indicators. The soil water content (at point scale) and groundwater level are also recorded. Recently, we have installed two cosmic-ray soil moisture sensors (StyX Neutronica) to estimate large-scale topsoil water content at the catchment.

Even though the soil management and soil properties in the fields of Nučice seem to be nearly homogeneous, we have observed variability in the topsoil moisture pattern. The method for the explanation of the soil water regime was the combination of the connectivity indices and numerical modelling. The soil moisture profiles from the point-scale sensors were processed in a 1-D physically-based soil water model (HYDRUS-1D) to optimize the soil hydraulic parameters. Further, the soil hydraulic parameters were used as input into a 3D spatially-distributed model, MIKE-SHE. The MIKE-SHE simulation has been mainly calibrated with rainfall-runoff observations. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the soil moisture were assessed from the simulation for both dry and wet catchment conditions. From the MIKE-SHE simulation, the optimized soil hydraulic parameters have improved the estimation of soil moisture dynamics and runoff generation. Also, the correlation between the observed and simulated soil moisture spatial patterns showed different behaviors during the dry and wet catchment conditions.

This study has been supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Technical University in Prague, grant No. SGS20/156/OHK1/3T/11 and the Project SHui which is co-funded by the European Union Project: 773903 and the Chinese MOST.

How to cite: Li, T., Noreika, N., Jeřábek, J., Dostál, T., and Zumr, D.: Exploring hydrological processes at a small agricultural catchment in the Czech Republic, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4952, 2021.

EGU21-14946 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Comparison of the event and seasonal hillslope-stream hydrologic connectivity in an agricultural headwater catchment

Lovrenc Pavlin, Borbála Széles, Peter Strauss, Alfred Paul Blaschke, and Günter Blöschl

In agricultural catchments, subsurface runoff is an important process for streamflow generation and the transport of nutrients and pollutants within and out of the catchment. Where and when subsurface runoff occurs is linked to the hydrologic connectivity in the catchment. This study compares spatial patterns of the connectivity between the hillslope and the stream on the event and seasonal scale. We analyse streamflow and groundwater responses to 53 precipitation events and their seasonal dynamics over two years in the Hydrologic Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a small (66 ha) agricultural headwater catchment in Lower Austria. We quantify the connectivity in terms of Spearman correlation, hysteresis index and peak-to-peak time between streamflow and groundwater dynamics. It shows a clear spatial pattern, i.e. the connectivity is greatest in the riparian zone and diminishes further away from the stream where the groundwater table is deeper. This is reflected in the significant correlation of connectivity to the topographic indices and groundwater depth. Groundwater connectivity to the stream on the seasonal scale is higher than that on the event scale, indicating that groundwater contributes more to the baseflow than event runoff.

How to cite: Pavlin, L., Széles, B., Strauss, P., Blaschke, A. P., and Blöschl, G.: Comparison of the event and seasonal hillslope-stream hydrologic connectivity in an agricultural headwater catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14946, 2021.

EGU21-12504 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

The nature and extent of bomb tritium remaining in deep soils

Jaivime Evaristo, Yanan Huang, Zhi Li, Kwok P. Chun, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Marc F.P. Bierkens

Understanding the movement of water in soils is important for estimating subsurface water reserves. Despite the advances made in understanding water movement, very few tools can directly ‘follow the water’. Tritium, a tracer that decays with time and resides within individual water molecules, is one such tool. Some tritium is produced naturally, others result from the nuclear bomb test era of the 1960s. Since the atmospheric nuclear tests ended following the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963, however, the amount of tritium in soil water has declined, putting into question the usefulness of the environmental tritium method for tracking water movement in future studies. Our study explores the usefulness of the tritium method. Our results highlight the narrow window of time, over the next 20 years depending on the model used, within which the tritium method may still be applicable. We call on scientists to now take full advantage of the environmental tritium method in places where the tool may still be applicable. A richer understanding of water movement in soils is ultimately critical for ecosystem services and water resources management, particularly in semi-arid environments with deep soils.

How to cite: Evaristo, J., Huang, Y., Li, Z., Chun, K. P., Sutanudjaja, E. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: The nature and extent of bomb tritium remaining in deep soils, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12504, 2021.

EGU21-796 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Stepwise improvement of hydrological models using satellite-based evaporation and total water storage estimations

Markus Hrachowitz, Petra Hulsman, and Hubert Savenije

Hydrological models are often calibrated with respect to flow observations at the basin outlet. As a result, flow predictions may seem reliable but this is not necessarily the case for the spatiotemporal variability of system-internal processes, especially in large river basins. Satellite observations contain valuable information not only for poorly gauged basins with limited ground observations and spatiotemporal model calibration, but also for stepwise model development. This study explored the value of satellite observations to improve our understanding of hydrological processes through stepwise model structure adaption and to calibrate models both temporally and spatially. More specifically, satellite-based evaporation and total water storage anomaly observations were used to diagnose model deficiencies and to subsequently improve the hydrological model structure and the selection of feasible parameter sets. A distributed, process based hydrological model was developed for the Luangwa river basin in Zambia and calibrated with respect to discharge as benchmark. This model was modified stepwise by testing five alternative hypotheses related to the process of upwelling groundwater in wetlands, which was assumed to be negligible in the benchmark model, and the spatial discretization of the groundwater reservoir. Each model hypothesis was calibrated with respect to 1) discharge and 2) multiple variables simultaneously including discharge and the spatiotemporal variability in the evaporation and total water storage anomalies. The benchmark model calibrated with respect to discharge reproduced this variable well, as also the basin-averaged evaporation and total water storage anomalies. However, the evaporation in wetland dominated areas and the spatial variability in the evaporation and total water storage anomalies were poorly modelled. The model improved the most when introducing upwelling groundwater flow from a distributed groundwater reservoir and calibrating it with respect to multiple variables simultaneously. This study showed satellite-based evaporation and total water storage anomaly observations provide valuable information for improved understanding of hydrological processes through stepwise model development and spatiotemporal model calibration.

How to cite: Hrachowitz, M., Hulsman, P., and Savenije, H.: Stepwise improvement of hydrological models using satellite-based evaporation and total water storage estimations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-796, 2021.

EGU21-4402 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Constraining a lumped rainfall-runoff model with piezometry to improve low-flow simulation

Antoine Pelletier and Vakzen Andréassian

Most lumped hydrological models are focused on the rainfall-runoff relationship, since climatic conditions are the driving force of the hydrological behaviour of a catchment. Many hydrological models, like the ones used by the French national PREMHYCE platform, only take climatic variables as inputs – daily rainfall and potential evaporation – to simulate and forecast low-flows. Yet, a hydrological drought is generally a medium- to long-term phenomenon, which is the consequence of long records of dry climatic conditions. Daily lumped hydrological models often struggle to integrate these records to reproduce catchment memory.

In many French catchments, it was observed that this memory of past hydroclimatic conditions is well represented in piezometric signals that are broadly available over the national territory. Indeed, aquifers, especially the large ones, do store water on the long, feeding rivers during droughts: aquifers are not only water carriers – the etymology for the word aquifer – they are also memory carriers. A dataset of 108 catchments, each of them being associated with one or several piezometers, was used to investigate whether the GR6J daily lumped rainfall-runoff model could be constrained by piezometric time series to improve low-flow simulations. We found that a particular state of the model, the exponential store, is particularly well correlated with piezometry in most studied catchments.

In order to get a univocal relationship between the exponential store and piezometry, a multi-objective calibration approach was implemented, optimising both (i) flow simulation with a criterion focused on low-flows and (ii) affine correspondence between the exponential store level and piezometry. For that purpose, a new parameter was added to the model. The modified calibration was then evaluated through a split-sample test and the performance in simulating particular drought events. The calibrated store-piezometry relationship can now be used for data assimilation to improve low-flow forecasting.

How to cite: Pelletier, A. and Andréassian, V.: Constraining a lumped rainfall-runoff model with piezometry to improve low-flow simulation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4402, 2021.

EGU21-8403 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

RAT (Robustness Assessment Test): a straightforward evaluation of hydrological model robustness to a changing climate

Vazken Andréassian, Léonard Santos, Torben Sonnenborg, Alban de Lavenne, Göran Lindström, Pierre Nicolle, and Guillaume Thirel

Hydrological models are increasingly used under evolving climatic conditions. They should thus be evaluated regarding their temporal transferability (application in different time periods) and extrapolation capacity (application beyond the range of known past conditions). In theory, parameters of hydrological models are independent of climate. In practice, however, many published studies based on the Split-Sample Test (Klemeš, 1986), have shown that model performances decrease systematically when it is used out of its calibration period. The RAT test proposed here aims at evaluating model robustness to a changing climate by assessing potential undesirable dependencies of hydrological model performances to climate variables. The test compares, over a long data period, the annual value of several climate variables (temperature, precipitation and aridity index) and the bias of the model over each year. If a significant relation exists between the climatic variable and the bias, the model is not considered to be robust to climate change on the catchment. The test has been compared to the Generalized Split-Sample Test (Coron et al., 2012) and showed similar results.

Here, we report on a large scale application of the test for three hydrological models with different level of complexity (GR6J, HYPE, MIKE-SHE) on a data set of 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. The results show that the test behaves differently given the evaluated variable (be temperature, precipitation or aridity) and the hydrological characteristics of each catchment. They also show that, although of different level of complexity, the robustness of the three models is similar on the overall data set. However, they are not robust on the same catchments and, then, are not sensitive to the same hydrological characteristics. This example highlights the applicability of the RAT test regardless of the model set-up and calibration procedure and its ability to provide a first evaluation of the model robustness to climate change.

 

References

Coron, L., V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, J. Lerat, J. Vaze, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx, 2012. Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05552, doi:10.1029/2011WR011721

Klemeš, V., 1986. Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrol. Sci. J., 31, 13–24, doi:10.1080/02626668609491024

 

How to cite: Andréassian, V., Santos, L., Sonnenborg, T., de Lavenne, A., Lindström, G., Nicolle, P., and Thirel, G.: RAT (Robustness Assessment Test): a straightforward evaluation of hydrological model robustness to a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8403, 2021.

EGU21-6913 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Advantages of calibrating a daily rainfall-runoff model to monthly streamflow data

Julien Lerat, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski

Development of robust approaches for calibrating daily rainfall-runoff models to monthly streamflow data enable modelling platforms that operate at daily time step to be applied in practical situations. Here precipitation is available at the daily scale, but observed streamflow is available only at the monthly scale (e.g. predicting inflows into large dams). This study compares the performance of the daily GR4J hydrological model when calibrated against (1) daily and (2) monthly streamflow data. The performance comparison relies on a wide range of metrics and is undertaken for 508 Australian catchments. Two evaluation periods (1975–1992 and 1992–2015) and four objective functions (including sum-of-squared-errors of Box-Cox transformed streamflow and the Kling-Gupta efficiency) were tested.

Monthly calibration performs similar to or better than daily calibration in most sites and both periods in terms of bias and fit of the flow duration curve. This result remains the same when the flow duration curve is computed at the daily time step, which constitutes a significant finding of this study.

However, the performance of monthly calibration is worse than daily calibration for daily pattern metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in most sites and both periods. Significant improvement can be achieved if the flow-timing parameter of GR4J is regionalised, effectively reducing the number of calibrated parameters. Similar results are obtained for other pattern metrics and all objective functions.

These findings suggest that monthly calibration of rainfall-runoff models using daily-rainfall and monthly-streamflow data is a viable alternative to daily calibration when no daily streamflow data are available.

How to cite: Lerat, J., Thyer, M., McInerney, D., and Kavetski, D.: Advantages of calibrating a daily rainfall-runoff model to monthly streamflow data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6913, 2021.

EGU21-12833 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

An improved representation of ephemeral pool hydrology in a semi-distributed hydrologic model

Mohammad Bizhanimanzar, Marie Larocque, and Marjolaine Roux

Ephemeral pools are seasonally flooded geographically isolated wetlands with distinct hydrology i.e., they are filled in winter and spring with inflow from snowmelt, and precipitation and dry out during summer. Ephemeral pools offer a variety of biodiversity benefits notably providing breeding habitat for several amphibian and invertebrate species. The quality of their ecosystem services is mainly controlled by their hydroperiod which is regulated by hydrology i.e., inflow /outflow of the pools. The classic water budget modeling approach with a simplified representation of the flow exchange between the pool and surface-subsurface zones may not adequately reveal their sensitivity to anthropogenic interventions and climatic changes. On the other hand, the generic volume-area-depth relationship of isolated wetlands in deterministic hydrologic models may not adequately reveal their dynamic water level fluctuations. The objective of this study, in the first place, is to improve the representation of ephemeral pools in the semi-distributed SWAT hydrological model, notably in the pothole module which is used for modeling isolated wetlands. The developed model will then be used to analyze the impact of land use and climate changes on dynamics of hydroperiods of ephemeral pools of the Saumon River watershed (68 km2) in the Canadian Shield of the Outaouais region (Quebec, Canada). A detailed bathymetry survey along with a long series (one to five years) of daily water level measurements available at ten pools allowed to replace the simplified linear volume-area relationship with the measured rating curve for the ephemeral pools in this region. The calibration process of the revised model is performed using the standard SWAT calibration code (SWAT-CUP) coupled to a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm adjusting evaporation and seepage coefficients of the revised module for all isolated wetlands of the region. This double calibration ensures representation of both the watershed hydrology (10 years of river flow rates) and the water level fluctuations in the pools. The simulation results show that the revised SWAT version can adequately reproduce the dynamic water level behavior of the monitored pools as well as streamflow discharges. The model is currently used with scenarios of human and climatic disturbances to understand their impact on the filling-drying cycle of ephemeral pools and on the integrated hydrologic system at the watershed scale.

How to cite: Bizhanimanzar, M., Larocque, M., and Roux, M.: An improved representation of ephemeral pool hydrology in a semi-distributed hydrologic model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12833, 2021.

EGU21-7849 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

A Hybrid Breaching-Filling method for sink removal adapted to parallel hydrological simulations

sleimane hariri, Jens Gustedt, Sylvain Weill, and Isabelle Charpentier

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are approximations used for hydrological simulations and flood mapping. Usually, DEMs have sinks corresponding to actual landscape depressions and/or engineered structures such as bridges, road embankments, overhangs, dams... over or near to water bodies. These sinks often result from interpolation errors or measurement inaccuracies. Regardless of the source, sinks usually cause issues in hydrological simulations.

Classical filling and breaching methods have shown performance limitations. On one hand, a breaching method cannot deal with big sinks such as sinkholes and lakes in a fair manner as it may yield a long and deeply incised breach channel (lindsay 2016) . On the other hand, even though favored among practitioners, filling a sink may yield a flat area whose altitude is the same as its outlet. Therefore, hybrid methods combining breaching and filling were introduced. Lindsay (2016) presented a hybrid method called “Selective breaching” where a threshold sink depth is defined. As noted in Martz and Garbrecht (1999), a flat area near to the drainage basin outlet impacts the computation of flow direction and the subsequent hydrological simulation.

A watershed partition into hydrological sub-units, e.g. (Hariri 2019)  allows for the parallelization of hydrological simulations. However, the larger the number of drainage basins and outlets, the more opportunities of having flat areas near outlets are met.

As an automatic mitigation, we propose a hybrid method blending a carved DEM and a filled DEM based on the distance to the outlet to take advantage of both methods.

The impact of the different methods to deal with sinks are evaluated for the Moderbach watershed (89 km², Région Grand-Est, France) chosen for its numerous engineering structures (5 big reservoirs, 6 large dams, 3 flood detention areas, roads and highway) comparing the results produced by a mixed-hybrid finite element code for surface flow simulation (Younes 1999) and HEC-RAS (Brunner 1994). The results show that the hybrid method we proposed overcomes the limitations of the classic filling and breaching and it is well adapted for parallel computing.

 

 

Bibliography

Brunner GW. HEC river analysis system (HEC-RAS). US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center. 1994.

Hariri S, Weill S, Gustedt J, Charpentier I. Pairing GIS and distributed hydrological models using Matlab 2. CAJG - 2nd Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosiences. 2019 Nov.

Lindsay JB. Efficient hybrid breaching‐filling sink removal methods for flow path enforcement in digital elevation models. Hydrological Processes. 2016 Mar 15;30(6):846-57.

Martz LW, Garbrecht J. An outlet breaching algorithm for the treatment of closed depressions in a raster DEM. Computers & Geosciences. 1999 Aug 1;25(7):835-44.

Younes A, Mose R, Ackerer P, Chavent G. A new formulation of the mixed finite element method for solving elliptic and parabolic PDE with triangular elements. Journal of Computational Physics. 1999 Feb 10;149(1):148-67.

How to cite: hariri, S., Gustedt, J., Weill, S., and Charpentier, I.: A Hybrid Breaching-Filling method for sink removal adapted to parallel hydrological simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7849, 2021.

Hydrological processes import across scales is known to constitute a key challenge to improve their representation in large-scale land surface models. Since these models describe continental hydrology with vertical one dimensional infiltration and evapotranspiration, the challenge mainly resides in the dimensionality reduction of the processes. Departing from the catchment three-dimensional scale, previous work has shown that an equivalent two-dimensional hillslope model is able to simulate long term watershed water balance with good accuracy. This work has been done on the Little Washita basin (Ok, USA) using the integrated code HydroGeoSphere. Following this framework, we show that hillslope hydrology can be described by using realistic simplifying assumptions, such as linear water table profile. These assumptions allow the writing of an analytical model relying on two hydrological variables: the seepage face extension, which describe the intersection length between the water table and the land surface, and the water table slope. The last step of the work will be to use these key variables and this simplified description of the driving processes for importing small-scale hydrological processes into large-scale models.

How to cite: Picourlat, F., Mouche, E., and Mugler, C.: Capturing watershed water balance with a physically-based two-hydrological-variable model: Application to the Little Washita basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8443, 2021.

EGU21-6548 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Impact of subjective modeling decisions on hydrological modeling

Ashlin Ann Alexander and Dasika Nagesh Kumar

Modelers often make different decisions in building hydrologic models based on their experience and modeling philosophy. Consequently, a wide range of models is developed, which differ in many aspects of conceptualization and implementation. This diversity of models has been useful to explore a myriad of scientific and applied questions, but it has also led to great confusion on choosing the appropriate model configurations in compliance with the dominant processes in the study area. Also, modeling decisions during model configuration introduce subjectivity from the modeler. To provide guidance to select the best-suited model configuration for a catchment it is required to examine and evaluate the different model representations of hydrological processes and their impact on model simulations. In this study, we show that modeling decisions during the model configuration, beyond the model choice, also impact the model results. The framework, Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA; Clark et al., 2015a, b) is used in this study to disentangle the model components which helps to have a controlled and systematic evaluation of multiple models representations. The area chosen for the study is the Malaprabha catchment in the Karnataka state of India. The impact of the choice of parameterizations and parameter values on the model simulations are shown. To improve upon the traditional model evaluation methods, hydrological signatures are made use to have a hydrologically meaningful evaluation of model simulations. This study helped to identify the suitable model configuration for the Malaprabha catchment. Multiple working hypotheses during model configuration which is possible with the help of such flexible framework like SUMMA can provide insights on the impact of subjective modeling decisions.

How to cite: Ann Alexander, A. and Nagesh Kumar, D.: Impact of subjective modeling decisions on hydrological modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6548, 2021.

EGU21-1371 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

New airGR developments: semi-distribution and data assimilation

Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, David Dorchies, and Gaia Piazzi

airGR (Coron et al., 2017, 2020) is an R package that offers the possibility to use the GR rainfall-runoff models developed in the Hydrology Research Group at INRAE (formerly at Irstea). It allows running seven hydrological models (including GR4J) dedicated to different time steps (hourly to annual) that can be combined to a snow accumulation and melt model (CemaNeige).

Thanks to the success of the airGR package, that was downloaded 45,000 times so far among 50 countries in the world and was used in dozen of publications since its release[1], its development team carries on its efforts to offer new features and improve the computer codes. This is how after offering a first add-on, the airGRteaching package, expressly developed for educational purposes, the team now offers tools dedicated to semi-distribution and data assimilation.

Using (semi-)distributed models is often necessary to explicitly represent spatial climatic and physiographic heterogeneities and to allow an analysis of their impact on the watershed response. Consequently, in the latest version of the airGR package, we introduced the semi-distribution of GR models, which are traditionally lumped, on a sub-basin basis. This development will also ultimately enable possibilities of implementing on a modular way different transfer functions as well as integrated water resource management (see package airGRiwrm in Abstract EGU21-2190).

In addition, a new package, called airGRdatassim, was recently proposed (Piazzi et al., 2021a, b) as an add-on to the airGR package. airGRdatassim enables the user to assimilate discharge observations via both Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and particle filter (PF) schemes. Besides improving the simulations of GR models, this new package extends the potential applications of airGR to forecasting purposes by allowing for a reliable assessment of the initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. 

 

References:

Coron L., Thirel G., Delaigue O., Perrin C., Andréassian V. (2017). The Suite of Lumped GR Hydrological Models in an R package, Environmental Modelling & Software, 94, 166-171. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.002.

Coron, L., Delaigue, O., Thirel, G., Perrin, C. and Michel, C. (2020). airGR: Suite of GR Hydrological Models for Precipitation-Runoff Modelling. R package version 1.4.3.65. URL: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=airGR.

Piazzi, G., Delaigue, O. (2021a). airGRdatassim: Suite of Tools to Perform Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in GR Hydrological Models. R package version 0.0.3.13. URL: https://gitlab.irstea.fr/HYCAR-Hydro/airgrdatassim.

Piazzi, G., Thirel, G., Perrin, C., Delaigue, O. (2021b, accepted). Sequential data assimilation for streamflow forecasting: assessing the sensitivity to uncertainties and updated variables of a conceptual hydrological model. Water Resources Research.


[1] https://hydrogr.github.io/airGR/page_publications.html

How to cite: Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Dorchies, D., and Piazzi, G.: New airGR developments: semi-distribution and data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1371, 2021.

EGU21-2190 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

airGRiwrm: an extension of the airGR R-package for handling Integrated Water Resources Management modeling

David Dorchies, Olivier Delaigue, and Guillaume Thirel

IWRM modeling aims at representing interactions between humans and their environment (Badham et al. 2019), which can involve hydrological, surface-hydraulic, and groundwater models. Semi-distributed models implementing a simplified hydraulic propagation between sub-catchments are often used as IWRM model (Ficchi et al. 2014, Dorchies et al. 2016) because of the good trade-off they offer between simplification and result relevancy.

The R-package airGR (Coron et al., 2017, 2020) is widely used in the R language hydrology community and its recent development with semi-distributive (see Abstract EGU21-1371) capabilities allows to use it for IWRM modeling. The R-package airGRiwrm has been developed for multiple purposes linked to IWRM. First, it proposes a simplified network description for building semi-distributed models containing several sub-basins with diverse connections, which greatly simplifies the calibration and modeling steps. Then, it allows to easily integrate predefined flows (feedforward control) into the model, namely local flow injections or withdrawals. Finally, it integrates controllers that apply user-defined decision algorithms given model outputs during simulation (feedback control). The controllers allows for example to apply withdrawal restriction in case of drought, or to simulate a reservoir behaviour with complex management rules.

In this presentation, we will introduce the airGRiwrm possibilities and we will demonstrate its use on the case of the Seine River basin in France. 

 

References:

Badham, J., et al., 2019. Effective modeling for Integrated Water Resource Management: A guide to contextual practices by phases and steps and future opportunities. Environmental Modelling & Software 116, 40–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.02.013

Coron, L., Delaigue, O., Thirel, G., Perrin, C., Michel, C., 2020. airGR: Suite of GR Hydrological Models for Precipitation-Runoff Modelling. R package version 1.4.3.65. https://doi.org/10.15454/EX11NA

Coron, L., Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., 2017. The suite of lumped GR hydrological models in an R package. Environmental Modelling & Software 94, 166–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.002

Dorchies, D., Thirel, G., Perrin, C., Bader, J.-C., Thepot, R., Rizzoli, J.-L., Jost, C., Demerliac, S., 2016. Climate change impacts on water resources and reservoir management in the Seine river basin (France). La Houille Blanche 32–37. https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2016047
Ficchi, A., Raso, L., Malaterre, P.-O., Dorchies, D., Jay-Allemand, M., 2014. Short Term Reservoirs Operation On The Seine River: Performance Analysis Of Tree-Based Model Predictive Control. Presented at the International Conference on Hydroinformatics, New York.

How to cite: Dorchies, D., Delaigue, O., and Thirel, G.: airGRiwrm: an extension of the airGR R-package for handling Integrated Water Resources Management modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2190, 2021.

EGU21-6051 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Preprocessing of hydrological models’ input in eWaterCycle with ESMValTool

Fakhereh Alidoost, Jerom Aerts, Bouwe Andela, Jaro Camphuijsen, Nick van De Giesen, Gijs van Den Oord, Niels Drost, Rolf Hut, Peter Kalverla, Inti Pelupessy, Ben van Werkhoven, Stef Smeets, and Stefan Verhoeven

Hydrological models exhibit great complexity and diversity in the exact methodologies applied, competing for hypotheses of hydrologic behaviour, technology stacks, and programming languages used in those models. The preprocessing of forcing (meteorological) data is often performed by various sets of scripts that may or may not be included with model source codes, making it hard to reproduce results. Moreover, forcing data can be retrieved from a wide variety of forcing products with discrepant variable names and frequencies, spatial and temporal resolutions, and spatial coverage. Even though there is an infinite amount of preprocessing scripts for different models, these preprocessing scripts use only a limited set of operations, mainly re-gridding, temporal and spatial manipulations, variable derivation, and unit conversion. Also, these exact same preprocessing functions are used in analysis and evaluation of output from Earth system models in climate science.

Within the context of the eWaterCycle II project (https://www.ewatercycle.org/), a common preprocessing system has been created for hydrological modelling based on ESMValTool (Earth System Model Evaluation Tool). ESMValTool is a community-driven diagnostic and performance metrics tool that supports a broad range of preprocessing functions. Using a YAML script called a recipe, instructions are provided to ESMValTool: the datasets which need to be analyzed, the preprocessors that need to be applied, and the model-specific analysis (i.e. diagnostic script) which need to be run on data. ESMValTool is modular and flexible so all preprocessing functions can also be used directly in a Python script and additional analyses can easily be added.

The current preprocessing pipeline of the eWaterCycle using ESMValTool consists of hydrological model-specific scripts and supports ERA5 and ERA-Interim data provided by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), as well as CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model data. The pipeline starts with the downloading and CMORization (Climate Model Output Rewriter) of input data. Then a recipe is prepared to find the data and run the preprocessors. When ESMValTool runs a recipe, it produces preprocessed data that can be passed as input to a hydrological model. It will also store provenance and citation information to ensure transparency and reproducibility. This leads to less time spent on building custom preprocessing, more reproducible and comparable hydrological science.

In this presentation, we will give an overview of the current preprocessing pipeline of the eWaterCycle, outline ESMValTool preprocessing functions, and introduce available hydrological recipes and diagnostic scripts for the PCRGLOB, WFLOW, HYPE, MARRMOT and LISFLOOD models.

How to cite: Alidoost, F., Aerts, J., Andela, B., Camphuijsen, J., van De Giesen, N., van Den Oord, G., Drost, N., Hut, R., Kalverla, P., Pelupessy, I., van Werkhoven, B., Smeets, S., and Verhoeven, S.: Preprocessing of hydrological models’ input in eWaterCycle with ESMValTool, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6051, 2021.

EGU21-10577 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Simulating hydrological processes with a fully coupled surface-subsurface model for estimating catchment travel times

Adnan Moussa, Julian Klaus, and Mauro Sulis

How water and solute are transported in catchments is the foundation for sustainable water management. The flow and transport processes can be described through the travel time of water summarizing the catchment functions of storage, mixing, and release. For a catchment scale, travel time is defined as the time a water particle needs to travel from when it hits the ground surface until it leaves the catchment as discharge or evapotranspiration. Recent studies treated travel time distributions as time-variant in order to reflect the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric forcing and corresponding hydrologic dynamics through the Master Equation and StorAge selection functions (SAS functions). A challenge is that travel times cannot be directly estimated from data but are inferred from either conceptual or physically based hydrological models. In our study, we employ the integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model Parflow to simulate water fluxes in the forested Weierbach catchment in Luxembourg. However, there are challenges on model parametrization and optimization to build a robust model that is representative of the catchments processes. Our objective here is to setup a robust model for Weierbach catchment based on available catchment parameters. We will evaluate the model against observed streamflow at several sites and soil moisture data. Nevertheless, such model can be used to reveal the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the hydrological processes at our catchment once it is constrained with the available field data. Future work will consist of directly estimating the travel time of both discharge and evapotranspiration using Parflow and particle tracking (such as EcoSLIM) and will be constrained with the observed stable isotope data.

How to cite: Moussa, A., Klaus, J., and Sulis, M.: Simulating hydrological processes with a fully coupled surface-subsurface model for estimating catchment travel times, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10577, 2021.

EGU21-14251 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Modelling losses of reservoir storage capacity from sedimentation in different landscapes 

Conrad Brendel, Alena Bartosova, Johan Strömqvist, Charlotta Pers, René Capell, and Berit Arheimer

Reservoir sedimentation represents a significant threat to the reliability of global water and energy supplies. Over the life of a reservoir, storage capacity is gradually lost due to the deposition of sediments. Hydrological models represent a valuable method to study and evaluate the effects of reservoir storage losses on issues such as energy production, discharge capacity, and flood attenuation. The Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model is a semi-distributed, catchment-based hydrology model that has been used to quantify sediment fluxes across a variety of catchment, country, continent, and global modeling domains. In this study, several methods to estimate reservoir storage capacity losses due to sedimentation were added to HYPE, and their impact on sediment simulations and resulting model performance was tested in multiple landscapes in various parts of the world. Selected methods consider the texture and size of deposited sediment particles, the compaction of deposited sediments over time, and the manner in which reservoirs are operated. Results from the study will be used to inform future model development and improve modeling of sediment fluxes at the global scale.

How to cite: Brendel, C., Bartosova, A., Strömqvist, J., Pers, C., Capell, R., and Arheimer, B.: Modelling losses of reservoir storage capacity from sedimentation in different landscapes , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14251, 2021.

EGU21-5030 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.1

Regionalization of Reservoir regulation parameters using physiographic and climatological predictors

Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Stephan Thober, and Luis Samaniego

Present regional and global scale hydrology has to account for man-made reservoirs that impart significant regulation signature into the downstream streamflow regime. Optimization of domains with large number of reservoirs would incur multitude of reservoir regulation parameters. Such parameter-set-per-reservoir approach not only results in excessive computational costs but also, by principle, lacks effective constraining of the parameter space. We propose an approach to derive single set of parameters for all the reservoirs and lakes in the modelling domain. The hypothesis is that reservoir regulation parameters can be regionalized using physiography and climatology at lakes and their catchments.

To test this hypothesis, we setup a modeling domain for the São Francisco basin of Northeast Brazil in the mesoscale hydrological model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The domain consists of climatology ranging from tropical (As) to semi-arid (BSh) and reservoirs with catchment area varying from less than 500 km2 to greater than 500,000 km2. We carried out correlation analysis between selected physiographical and climatological predictors and the reservoir parameters of the multiscale lake module, mLM, of the mHM model (https://presentations.copernicus.org/EGU2020/EGU2020-6047_presentation.pdf). For an instance, the reservoir rule curves in mLM are estimated based on inflow and position of water level. The predictors here are inflow and water level which are normalized using catchment area and the shape of the reservoir, respectively. Similarly, the timing and shape parameters of rule curves were plotted against the climatological characteristics of the upstream catchment. The preliminary results reveal significant trends between the mLM parameters and the normalized predictors. These mathematical relationships, better known as transfer functions, can now be used to generate a single global reservoir parameter set.

The demonstrated hypothesis helps to optimize regulated hydrology using a single parameter set, irrespective of size, location and inherent climatology of reservoirs involved. This is inline with the pre-existing paradigm of multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) of mHM. The findings contribute to the contemporary effort of hydrological modeling society towards improved global scale hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Shrestha, P. K., Thober, S., and Samaniego, L.: Regionalization of Reservoir regulation parameters using physiographic and climatological predictors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5030, 2021.

For decades, lumped rainfall-runoff models have been used for hydrological analysis and forecasting such as operational flood forecasting. However, the accuracy of model forecasts depends on the ability of the model to approximate the dominant hydrological processes of the catchment under consideration. These processes are site specific and, therefore, the choice of a particular model is challenging. 

A large number of hydrological models has been developed and applied in various regions of the world. Model choice has often been hampered in the past by technical problems such as different programming languages, different software platforms, and different input formats and requirements.

The Modular Assessment of Rainfall Runoff Model Toolbox (MARRMoT) unites 46 lumped models from around the world within the same Matlab® framework with standardized inputs. The model equations have been simplified and adapted for this purpose. As a result, it is possible to test a large number of different models with comparatively little effort. The models implemented in MARRMoT vary in their structural complexity and have between 1-24 parameters and between 1-8 storages.

Here MARRMoT was used in order to find a model or model ensemble suitable for the simulation of precipitation-runoff relationships in the Wairau River catchment, New Zealand. The catchment area is assumed to have predominantly homogeneous runoff-generating properties. Model input data (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) was derived from the Virtual Climate Station Network by National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NZ.

In a first scenario, 42 selected models from MARRMoT were calibrated for the Wairau River catchment using 45 years of Wairau River flow data, an in-built nonlinear unconstrained optimization algorithm and the model fitness criteria Kling-Gupta-Efficiency (KGE). In two further scenarios, calibrations using the KGE with inversely transformed flows (KGEi) as well as a mixed form of the two criteria (KGEm) were realized. 

Model performance was further evaluated based on different performance criteria such as NSE, RMSE and R². It was demonstrated that the model ranking depends on the choice of the performance.

Evaluating the model performance for the different calibration scenarios showed that a few models with very different structures performed well to reproduce the flow data. No decisive structural feature could be identified which all models have in common and which led to a good representation of the rainfall-runoff processes in the Wairau River catchment. However, the differentiated consideration of flow routing and a high degree of flexibility seem to benefit model performance. Deficits in the modeling can be seen in the discharge peaks, which are not correctly simulated by many models. The simulation of fast direct runoff with lumped models seems to be less accurate for the relatively large catchment area of ​​the Wairau River (3430 km²).

Eventually, three models (GR4J, FLEX-I and HBV-96) demonstrated a high performance in all three calibration scenarios and were identified as suitable for further use in the Wairau River catchment.

How to cite: Peesel, A. and Wöhling, T.: Evaluation of 42 lumped rainfall-runoff models for the Wairau River catchment, New Zealand, using the MARRMoT toolbox, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6977, 2021.

HS2.2.2 – Isotope and tracer methods: flow paths characterization, catchment response and transformation processes

EGU21-2869 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Basin-scale evaporation rate estimation based on isotopic approach: adaptation to the Mediterranean conditions

Alexandra Mattei, Frédéric Huneau, Emilie Garel, Sebastien Santoni, and Yuliya Vystavna

Being a proxy for water stress monitoring and as a key element of sustainable water management, evaporation helps to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean ecosystems to droughts. Estimation of annual basin-scale evaporation rate can be done using cost-effective isotope mass balances approaches that exploit the integrative nature of the river isotopic signal.

In Mediterranean regions, the marked climatic seasonality and uneven precipitation distribution complicates the use of isotope mass balances to obtain basin-scale estimation of average evaporation rates. For example, a mass balance approach carried out on the Tavignanu River watershed in Corsica (France), showed unrealistic evaporation rate estimates of 10% for 2017-2018 and 1% for 2018-2019. These results suggest that not only does evaporation alter the seasonal isotopic composition in the river, but that there is a complex variability of the dominant water reservoirs contributing to the streamflow. Therefore, we propose a modified mass balance approach that includes monthly contribution of the different water sources to the river discharge. This allows the discrimination of isotopic variation occurring by evaporation from that originating by mixing processes. By applying this modified approach, we estimated evaporation rates on the Tavignanu River watershed that were in good agreement with results obtained by hydrological modelling: 40% for 2017-2018 and 46% for 2018-2019, respectively.

The proposed approach can be used to determine evaporation rates in river basins in other semi-arid climates where estimating evaporation is of major concern for water management. More generally, these results should encourage investigations of details in water source contributions to river flow prior to conducing isotope mass balance evaporation estimates. Consequences are expected in several research fields where the portioning of evapotranspiration into components is of interest, including hydrology (e.g. water budget estimations), ecology (e.g. carbon budget estimations) and climatology.

 

How to cite: Mattei, A., Huneau, F., Garel, E., Santoni, S., and Vystavna, Y.: Basin-scale evaporation rate estimation based on isotopic approach: adaptation to the Mediterranean conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2869, 2021.

EGU21-8102 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Controls on streamwater age in a saturation overland flow-dominated catchment

Dana Lapides, David Dralle, Daniella Rempe, William Dietrich, and W. Jesse Hahm

Water age and flow pathways should be related; however, it is still generally unclear how integrated catchment runoff generation mechanisms result in streamflow age distributions at the outlet. Here, we combine field observations of runoff generation at the Dry Creek catchment with StorAge Selection (SAS) age models to explore the relationship between streamwater age and runoff pathways. Dry Creek is an intensively monitored catchment in the northern California Coast Ranges with a Mediterranean climate and thin subsurface critical zone. Due to limited storage capacity, runoff response is rapid (~1-2 hours), and total annual streamflow consists predominantly of saturation overland flow, based on field mapping of saturated extents and runoff thresholds. Even though SAS modeling reveals that streamflow is younger at higher wetness states, flow is still typically older than one day and thus older than event water. Because streamflow is mostly overland flow, this means that a significant portion of overland flow must derive from groundwater returning to the surface, consistent with field observations of exfiltrating head gradients, return flow through macropores, and extensive saturation days after storm events. We conclude that even in a landscape with widespread overland flow, runoff pathways may be longer than anticipated, with implications for contaminant delivery and biogeochemical reactions. Our findings have implications for the assumptions built into classic hydrograph separation inferences, namely, that overland flow is not all new water.

How to cite: Lapides, D., Dralle, D., Rempe, D., Dietrich, W., and Hahm, W. J.: Controls on streamwater age in a saturation overland flow-dominated catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8102, 2021.

EGU21-10301 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Impact of antecedent wetness and precipitation intensity on catchment travel and response times

Julia L.A. Knapp, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Jana von Freyberg, and James W. Kirchner

The time a molecule of rain takes to reach the stream is normally substantially longer than the time for discharge to respond to rainfall. This difference arises because hydraulic potentials propagate through landscapes much faster than water itself does; in other words, the celerity of wave propagation is faster than the velocity of water flow. Although these concepts are well established, most catchment studies are restricted to the calculation of the celerity or response time from hydrometric information. However, to understand the storage, release, and transport of water, as well as identify flow paths through the catchment, one needs to estimate both response and travel times, requiring both hydrometric and tracer data.

We analyzed hydrometric and tracer data from two contrasting sites, the pre-Alpine Erlenbach catchment in Switzerland and the Upper Hafren catchment at Plynlimon in Wales. For both sites, hydrometric data and sub-daily isotopic tracer time series are available, enabling the calculation of response times as well as travel time distributions and new water fractions. To gain a deeper understanding of the functioning of the two catchments, we quantified these metrics and distributions for different ranges of antecedent wetness and precipitation intensity. Generally, wetter catchment conditions and higher precipitation intensities yielded faster runoff responses and shorter travel times.  Contrasts between travel and response time distributions under varying catchment conditions also facilitated more nuanced insights into catchment functioning and the effects of catchment wetness and precipitation intensity on water storage and release.

How to cite: Knapp, J. L. A., Berghuijs, W. R., von Freyberg, J., and Kirchner, J. W.: Impact of antecedent wetness and precipitation intensity on catchment travel and response times, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10301, 2021.

EGU21-6209 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Isotopic hydrograph separation in a small agricultural catchment

Borbála Széles, Juraj Parajka, Ladislav Holko, Stefan Wyhlidal, Katharina Schott, Christine Stumpp, Patrick Hogan, Lovrenc Pavlin, Peter Strauss, and Günter Blöschl

Exploring the isotopic composition of precipitation and streamflow in small catchments and the event and pre-event components of precipitation events using two-component isotopic hydrograph separation may better explain the overall catchment behaviour, more specifically the sources of water origin. This study’s main objective is to investigate the origin of water for different streamflow gauges in a small agricultural catchment, which represent different runoff generation mechanisms. The analysis will be performed in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Austria, a 66 ha experimental catchment dominated by agricultural land use (Blöschl et al., 2016). One of the main specialities of this research catchment is that several tributaries of the catchment representing different runoff generation mechanisms are gauged, such as tile drainage flow or saturation excess runoff from erosion gullies. Two-component isotopic hydrograph separation (for both 18O and 2H) will be conducted for five streamflow gauges (catchment inlet and outlet, two erosion gullies and a tile drainage system) for multiple events in the period 2013-2018. The results will be linked and interpreted using additional observations such as time-lapse images of overland flow, electric conductivity measurements, groundwater level changes, evapotranspiration measurements, etc. The aim is to explain and discuss the processes of rainfall-runoff generation in small agricultural catchments.

 

Reference:

Blöschl, G., et al. (2016). The Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen: A hypothesis‐driven observatory. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20(1), 227–255. doi: 10.5194/hess‐20‐227‐2016.

How to cite: Széles, B., Parajka, J., Holko, L., Wyhlidal, S., Schott, K., Stumpp, C., Hogan, P., Pavlin, L., Strauss, P., and Blöschl, G.: Isotopic hydrograph separation in a small agricultural catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6209, 2021.

EGU21-5907 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Investigation of Lake and Wetlands Influence on Streamflow in Mesoscale Precambrian Shield Watersheds Using IsoWATFLOOD, A Tracer-Aided Hydrologic Model 

Arghavan Tafvizi, April James, Tricia Stadnyk, Huaxia Yao, and Charles Ramcharan

Hydrologists continue to be challenged in accurately predicting spatial variation in storage, runoff, and other hydrological processes in both natural and disturbed landscapes. Lakes and wetlands are important hydrologic stores in Precambrian shield watersheds. Identifying how they affect streamflow, independently and/or collectively is a challenge. Tracer-aided hydrologic modeling coupled with field-based stable isotope surveys offer a potentially powerful approach to investigation of mesoscale streamflow generation processes because the influence of evaporative enrichment generates a distinct signature of the surface water endmember, and continuous and distributed simulated streamflow can be tested against field observations under a range of flow conditions. The main objectives of this research are to investigate the influence of lakes and wetlands on streamflow generation by developing application of the tracer-aided hydrologic model isoWATFLOOD for the ~ 15275 km2 Sturgeon - Lake Nipissing - French River (SNF) basin located on the Precambrian Shield in Northeastern Ontario, Canada. Monthly surveys of δ18O and δ2H in river flow were collected between 2013 to 2019 (weekly to monthly) across eight sub-catchments, with supporting observations of volumes and stable isotopes in snowcores, snowmelt, precipitation and groundwater. Application of the hydrologic model isoWATFLOOD to the SNF Basin is developed for the first time, allowing for simulation of discharge and stable isotopes in streamflow and soil moisture across multiple sub-catchments. In model building, consideration of differences in quaternary geology, landcover, and sub catchment locations are considered.  Landcover ranges from the boreal forests to impervious urban areas, while dominated by temperate forest, with some coverage of agriculture/disturbed impacted systems; several major sub-catchments having hydropower regulations. Previous statistical analysis has highlighted the importance of wetlands, lakes, and quaternary geology as influential on differences in hydrologic and isotope response in SNF watershed, as a result, model building is considering different landcover types as lakes and wetlands. Six different Landover are considered for generating Group Response Units (GRUs). The model is calibrated using discharge and stable water isotope.  IsoWATFLOOD can represent variation in streamflow generation across the study area. Identifying the different impacts of lakes and wetlands on streamflow generation processes in study area by applying isoWATFLOOD for the SNF watershed will be the main achievement of this study.

How to cite: Tafvizi, A., James, A., Stadnyk, T., Yao, H., and Ramcharan, C.: Investigation of Lake and Wetlands Influence on Streamflow in Mesoscale Precambrian Shield Watersheds Using IsoWATFLOOD, A Tracer-Aided Hydrologic Model , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5907, 2021.

EGU21-11174 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Investigating the value of regional water isotope data on transit time and SAS modelling

Arianna Borriero, Stefanie Lutz, Rohini Kumar, Tam Nguyen, Sabine Attinger, and Jan Fleckenstein

High nutrient concentrations despite mitigation measures and reduced inputs are a common problem in anthropogenically impacted catchments. To investigate how water and solutes of different ages are mixed and released from catchment storage to the stream, catchment-scale models based on water transit time from StorAge Selection functions (SAS) are a promising tool. Tracking fluxes of environmental tracers, such as stable water isotopes, allows to calibrate and validate these models. However, this requires collection of water samples with an adequate temporal and spatial resolution, while sampling in catchments at the management scale is often limited by the high costs of the instruments, maintenance and chemical analysis. Therefore, temporal and spatial interpolation techniques are needed. This study demonstrates how to deal with sparse tracer data in space and time, and evaluates if these data are valuable to constrain the subsurface mixing dynamics and transit time with SAS modelling. We simulated water isotope data in diverse sub-basins of the Bode catchment (Germany) and calibrated the SAS function parameters against the measured streamflow isotope data. We tested four different combinations of spatial and temporal interpolation of the measured precipitation isotope data. In terms of temporal interpolation, monthly oxygen isotopes in precipitation (δ18OP) collected between 2012 and 2015 were converted to a daily time step with a step function and sinusoidal interpolation. In terms of spatial interpolation, the model was tested with raw values of δ18OP collected at a specific sampling point and with δ18OP interpolated using kriging to gain the spatial pattern of precipitation. The effect of the spatial and temporal interpolation techniques on the modeled SAS functions was analyzed using different parameterizations of the SAS function (i.e., power law time-invariant, power law time-variant and beta law). The results show how tracer input data with different distribution in time and space affect the SAS parameterization and water transit time. Moreover, they reveal preference of the sub-basins to mobilize either younger or older water, which has implications on how water flows through a catchment and on the fate of solutes.

How to cite: Borriero, A., Lutz, S., Kumar, R., Nguyen, T., Attinger, S., and Fleckenstein, J.: Investigating the value of regional water isotope data on transit time and SAS modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11174, 2021.

EGU21-2375 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Stable isotope geochemistry of Oxygen and Hydrogen: A case study of the Satluj River Basin, India  

Akhtar Jahan, Mohd Usman Khan, Nachiketa Rai, Abhayanand Singh Maurya, and Sudhir Kumar

Stable isotope analysis of hydrogen and oxygen is one of the important methods used to model the hydrological cycle. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic investigation of river water, its tributaries, and groundwater of its catchment from the Satluj basin was undertaken to estimate the contributions of the main sources comprising discharge during major periods throughout a hydrologic year.

Estimation of the snow/glaciers melt contribution is also very important for tracing the sources and processes regulating the flow from the provenance and reservoirs in the context of global warming, for estimating flood flow, and for other water resource development activities in large parts of the Indian subcontinent. Water samples were collected during the non-monsoon season at increasing altitudes. In this work, in addition to stable isotopes, we also assessed the water quality using various physicochemical parameters and geochemistry of the water.

From isotopic analyses of river water samples, the mean value of the δ18O was found to be ~ -13‰, and the mean value of δD was found to be~ -85‰. For the samples from Satluj tributaries, the mean value of the δ18O was ~ -11‰, and the mean value of δD was ~ -69‰. A mean value of -8.4‰, was found based on the δ18O measurements of the groundwater samples, while the average δD value was found to be ~ -55‰.

For the mainstream and tributary, LWL, y = 8.2604x +20.208, and range of d-excess (>10‰) and y = 8.2079x + 22.182 and d-excess > 10‰ indicates a system recharged by sources of recycled moisture derived from continental sources in addition to monsoonal climates. For the groundwater data, the slope is 6.7, and d-excess ranges from 7‰ to 17‰. These observations are suggestive of the monsoonal source of Indian Ocean precipitation that has experienced significant evaporation during the non-monsoon season.

Our new data clearly shows that the surface water whether mainstream, tributary, and groundwater isotopes are homogenized from regional trends in precipitation, modified by evaporation, and are thus greatly influenced by latitude, elevation, and patterns of climate.

 

How to cite: Jahan, A., Khan, M. U., Rai, N., Maurya, A. S., and Kumar, S.: Stable isotope geochemistry of Oxygen and Hydrogen: A case study of the Satluj River Basin, India  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2375, 2021.

We have used stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen (δ18O and δD) which are important tracers for understanding various hydrological processes, to assess the spatial and temporal variability due to dual moisture sources in the Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) of the north-western Himalayan region. The HYSPLIT back trajectory analysis shows large variability in spatial moisture transport pathways over the region during Southwest monsoon (SWM) and is mainly restricted to the Mediterranean Sea during Western disturbances (WDs). The isotopic composition of precipitation is significantly controlled by temperature and Relative Humidity during precipitation events from WDs; however, this control is found to be weak during the SWM.

Stable isotope signatures of precipitation are found to show a well-defined altitudinal effect (δ18O=0.19‰/100m) and a negative correlation with ambient temperature (R² = 0.65, p<0.01 for WDs & R²=0.48, p>0.1 for SWM). Mixing various tributary waters with different isotopic compositions leads to variability in the Jhelum River’s (JR) isotopic composition along its course. The observed spatial variability of δ18O and d-excess results from the exchange processes between groundwater and surface water. The higher depletion of precipitation during WDs leads to depletion of surface and groundwater and produces enrichment due to the evaporative loss of heavier isotopes due to drier weather conditions during SWM. Evaporation signals are more prominent in shallow groundwater (SGW) and lake water, indicating SGW being discharged in the proximity of lake water bodies. The isotopic values in the upper reaches are observed to be depleted, potentially due to inputs from melting glaciers and snow. In the middle, it reaches slightly enriched, likely due to shifts in groundwater and rainfall inputs. In the downstream, due to increased residence time and flat topography, the isotopic composition is relatively enriched, potentially related to the evaporative losses of heavier isotopes. The d-excess values in UJRB are found to vary between 11‰ to 20‰ with an average value of ~17‰, which is relatively higher than the long-term average observed for the Indian summer monsoon (~8‰), and Upper Indus in the Ladakh region (11.7‰) but almost similar to observed for Lower Indus (18‰).

The contribution of moisture from each source (WDs and SWM) are estimated using a two-component mixing model. The moisture source contribution over UJRB via WDs is 75%(±20) from the Mediterranean Sea and 20%(±10) from SWM. WDs contribution over UJRB is higher than in the Trans-Himalayan region in the Ladakh (Indian sector in the east) but smaller in Lower Indus Basin (Pakistan sector in the west). Hence, the influence of moisture of WDs decreases from west to east along the Himalayan region. This work based on stable isotope geochemistry of oxygen and hydrogen highlights the effects of meteorological and physiographic controls on the moisture dynamics and contributes to explain the spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic processes in the region.

How to cite: Dar, T., Rai, N., and Kumar, S.: Implications for water cycle dynamics in the Upper Jhelum River Basin of North-Western Himalayas based on hydrogen and oxygen isotope signatures of precipitation, surface water, and groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1077, 2021.

EGU21-15057 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Effects of snowmelt on the runoff dynamics in two catchments with different forest stands

Roman Juras, Yuliya Vystavna, Ma Cristina Paule-Mercado, Susanne I. Schmidt, Jiri Kopacek, Josef Hejzlar, and Frederic Huneau

The forest stand can significantly affect the snow deposition and consequently the runoff during the melt period. This study focuses on water and element fluxes from snowpack in two Czech boreal headwater lake catchments with different forest stands (mature vs. regenerating after bark beetle tree dieback) using isotopic and hydrochemical tools. Sampling and analysis of the surface water, precipitation and snowpack throughout one  hydrological year enabled us to estimate the isotopic balance and chemical snowpack evolution, but also the snowmelt contribution in lakes inlets and outlets.

Isotopic signatures of the snowpack were seasonal, with δ2H amplitudes of -25‰ in the mature and -17‰ in the regenerating forest catchments. The mature forest had a ~1 month longer duration of snow cover and higher concentration of solutes in the precipitation and snowpack. In both catchments, heavier isotopes (18O and 2H) preferentially left the snowpack, which was saturated with rainwater. This resulted in the final spring snowmelt being enriched with lighter isotopes (16O and 1H). Ions were also eluted from the snowpack during rain-on-snow events and partial snow melting throughout the winter, causing fluxes of diluted water at the end of the snowmelt. Our results demonstrate the hydrological and hydrochemical variability of the snowpack, which in the future may even increase with rising temperatures and changes of precipitation patterns.

How to cite: Juras, R., Vystavna, Y., Paule-Mercado, M. C., Schmidt, S. I., Kopacek, J., Hejzlar, J., and Huneau, F.: Effects of snowmelt on the runoff dynamics in two catchments with different forest stands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15057, 2021.

Rising concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in inland waters are observed and investigated intensely in the last decades. The development of adaptive measures requires the forecasting of DOC-exports from catchments. Since DOC is exported from river catchments along hydrological pathways it is evident that the investigation of runoff generation, retention and travel times along flow paths are important to quantify DOC-loads and to develop a forecast model.

To gain comprehensive insights in runoff formation and DOC export in a small forested catchment in the Bavarian Forest National Park we apply a nested multi-tracer approach, combining experimental and analytical methods with the aim to develop a hydrological forecast model which is able to reproduce the dominant mobilization- and export processes of DOC in forested mountain catchments. The use of multiple tracers combines different approaches to determine source areas, flow paths and retention times of runoff water in catchments. Stable isotopes (d2H, d18O) are suitable as natural tracers to estimate contributions from precipitation to stream discharge. With the additional use of geochemical tracers (e.g. DOC, SiO2) contributions from groundwater and the organic and mineral soil horizons can be estimated. Combined with a nested approach these analyses can be conducted on different spatial scales, enabling the development of scalable prognostic models of runoff formation in catchments.

To complement the limited information from historic data sets we instrumented two hill transects to observe lateral contributions from hill slopes and to investigate potential preferential flow paths. Water samples from stream-, soil-, ground- and precipitation water were collected during two flood events and analysed for stable isotopes and chemical compositions. To support the nested approach, the sampling sites were chosen at strategical sites within the catchment, including the instrumented hill transects and the stream network from the creek to the catchment outlet.

Preliminary results of stable isotope analysis show, that after dry periods nearly no event water seems to contribute to runoff formation, whereas after wet periods the proportions can be up to 40 %. A strongly delayed reaction of the groundwater was observed which suggests that deep groundwater is not contributing to stream flow, but a possible mobilization of pre-event water in the riparian zone was observed as a response to precipitation events.

A likely major source of DOC is in the organic soil horizons due to storage and degradation of organic material. This is supported by higher DOC-concentrations in the soil water from these horizons. In how far residence times, precipitation intensities and flow paths activation from different source areas influence concentration peaks of DOC in the stream will be analysed in the next steps.

The results of the recent field campaign help to identify the dominant processes of runoff generation and DOC mobilization on different temporal and spatial scales and for different antecedent system states. The data and insights gained from the field campaign will be used to develop and calibrate process models for hypothesis testing and further analyses to eventually develop a forecast model for DOC mobilization.

How to cite: Rommel, L. and Wöhling, T.: Hydrological analysis of runoff generation in a forested mountain catchment using a nested multi-tracer approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11112, 2021.

Long-term isotope values of river water provide information on hydrological flow pathways and atmospheric exchange and can be used to determine the origins of hydrogen and oxygen stored in animal and plant tissues. However, development of isotope maps for rivers is currently limited by methods to spatially interpolate point measurements to values for entire river networks. Catchment environmental characteristics and structures that affect river water isotope values also affect downstream reaches via flow, but many (such as man-made dams) are no more likely to affect nearby unconnected catchments than distant ones. Hence, distance-based geospatial and statistical interpolation methods used to develop isoscapes for precipitation and terrestrial systems may be less appropriate for river networks. We developed a modified ‘water balance’ river isotope mapping method to consider the effects of reach-scale catchment environmental characteristics and applied it across the entire stream network of New Zealand. This network comprises over 600,000 reaches and over 400,000 kilometres of rivers. The method uses national rainfall precipitation isoscapes, a digital elevation layer, a national river water isotope monitoring dataset (currently over 3 years of monthly sampling at 58 sites) and reach scale environmental attribute databases that cover New Zealand’s river network. δ2H and δ18O isoscapes produced showed an improved fit to validation data, compared to a model for which residuals between observed and simulated isotope values were applied as a correction factor across the river network using the ordinary kriging method. Hence, we show how a water balance modelling approach can provide an improved representation of long-term river water δ2H and δ18O values when combined with a correction for catchment environmental attributes.

How to cite: Dudley, B., Yang, J., Shankar, U., and Graham, S.: A method for predicting hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions across a region’s river network using reach-scale environmental attributes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3646, 2021.

EGU21-14509 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Assessing Surface water- alluvial aquifer water exchange using a multitracer approach and modelling

Jérôme Texier, Julio Gonçalves, Thomas Stieglitz, and Christine Vallet-Coulomb

Alluvial aquifers are generally highly productive in terms of groundwater and are therefore particularly exploited. The study site is a drinking water production facility located on the alluvial plain of the Rhône river, France. This site consists of several pumping wells and observation piezometers organized along the riverbank. The site is continuously supplying water to neighboring agglomerations with intermittent pumping. In this situation, the pumping produces a piezometric depression allowing leading to a water exchange from the river to the aquifer which is a common feature in the case of alluvial aquifer exploitation along a riverside.

The four pumping wells and five piezometers were equipped with continuous automatic temperature and water level measurement probes, the river stage is monitored as well. These data are used to determine the exchange (direction and magnitude) between the aquifer and the river. Although pumping is intermittent, it does not allow a sufficient recovering of the natural piezometric level, i.e. the aquifer is permanently below the river stage.

In addition to the automatic probes, additional data acquisition campaigns were carried out. During these campaigns different tracers were used such as conductivity, stable isotopes of water and radon activity. Together with the continuously measured temperature, these various tracers were used to identify hydrodynamic variables and parameters, such as Darcy’s velocity, dispersivity, transit times. A MODFLOW model was developed, integrating the site geometry and hydrodynamic context, with the Rhone River at the western boundary and the Ouveze river at the eastern boundary. Model calibration was performed using the study site piezometric records and the optimization package PEST. The flow was reproduced at the site for two situations, a natural situation without groundwater pumping, and the exploitation situation with the groundwater withdrawals. Finally, the tracer’s data were integrated into the model to reproduce the transport of different tracers, in order to quantify the exchanges and the water fractions coming from the different hydraulic boundaries.

How to cite: Texier, J., Gonçalves, J., Stieglitz, T., and Vallet-Coulomb, C.: Assessing Surface water- alluvial aquifer water exchange using a multitracer approach and modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14509, 2021.

EGU21-14145 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Spatial distribution of groundwater-surface water connectivity in the Kosimegafan, north India

Zafar Beg, Suneel Kumar Joshi, Kumar Gaurav, and Sudhir Kumar

We conducted a systematically integrated surface water and groundwater interaction study in the Kosimegafan in north India using the stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) of water and depth to water level data. In a field campaign in December 2019, we have collected a water sample from 65 different locations for isotopic analysis. This includes 21 samples from the groundwater and 44 from different surface water bodies (Kosi River-02, streams-09, waterlogged patches-29, and canal-04).

The δ18O and D-excess values of groundwater and waterlogged samples show marked spatial variation across the study area. Using a two-component mixing model, we estimate the fraction contribution of streams and rainwater in the groundwater and waterlogged patches. This shows a marked spatial and depth-related variability in stream water contribution to the groundwater recharge and varies from about 83% (maximum) at 6 m below ground level (bgl) to 45% (minimum) at 9 m bgl. We also analysed the spatial and temporal variation in groundwater levels from 1996 to 2017. During this period, the water level shows a significant variation from 1.1 to 7.8 m bgl. Further, using the water table fluctuation approach, we estimate the recharge rate. We found a higher recharge rate (22 mm/year) in the central part of the western lobe and northern part of the central lobe, and minimum (1 mm/year)in both the northern part of the western and southern part of the central lobe of the Kosi fan. This study provides new insight into the recharge processes in the study area.

How to cite: Beg, Z., Joshi, S. K., Gaurav, K., and Kumar, S.: Spatial distribution of groundwater-surface water connectivity in the Kosimegafan, north India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14145, 2021.

EGU21-15003 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

An over-used ocean island coastal aquifer, Tenerife (Spain) – tracing inputs for improved resource management

Beverley Coldwell, María Cordero, Nemesio M. Pérez, Cecilia Amonte, María Asensio-Ramos, Gladys Melián, and Eleazar Padrón

The island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) relies on basalt-hosted aquifers to provide 90% of water for agriculture and human consumption. The island is characterised by a low-permeability core, overlain by permeable materials which are cut by impermeable dykes. The effect is a compartmentalised aquifer, which is exploited sequentially as each “pocket” of water is exhausted. The island is home to ~1 million people (with an additional 5 million visiting tourists per year), and although rain/snowfall can be heavy in winter storms, it is unpredictable from year to year, and rapid surface water run off occurs due to the steep geography. While net recharge into the upper zones of the Tenerife aquifer have been quantified (around 2 months between intense rainfall and water table fluctuations), water must then follow a tortuous path to recharge lower zones and aquifer “pockets”. Water recharge to the coastal aquifers is also interrupted and extracted during its journey. Human and agricultural pressure is highest near the coast, and has led to intensive exploitation of existing wells and horizontal galleries. In response to the intensification of water extraction and slow recharge rates, marine intrusions into the coastal aquifers of Tenerife have occurred, traditionally recorded by rising chloride levels and resulting in well/gallery closures as well as increased pressure on other extraction sites. However, in a volcanic ocean island setting, natural processes can mimic the appearance of salinisation in a coastal aquifer. Management of aquifer resources require careful consideration of seawater incursions vs. volcanic degassing contributions vs. ocean island rainfall. Full hydrochemical breakdown of 43 coastal aquifer extraction sites reveal seawater intrusion is affecting the western coastal aquifer, with the agreement of multiple parameters. The strontium isotopic signature of well samples was also measured, because it is not subject to the biological or physical fractionation processes of other isotopic systems, thereby forming distinct reservoirs for groundwater (87Sr/86Sr of host rock), and seawater. 87Sr/86Sr signatures suggest the northern coastal aquifers are also subject to seawater incursions. This parameter may be a more sensitive indicator than chlorides and conductivity markers for salinisation, especially in an ocean island environment where coastal aquifers are subject to intensive land use practices, seawater spray, and affected by diffuse volcanic degassing.

How to cite: Coldwell, B., Cordero, M., Pérez, N. M., Amonte, C., Asensio-Ramos, M., Melián, G., and Padrón, E.: An over-used ocean island coastal aquifer, Tenerife (Spain) – tracing inputs for improved resource management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15003, 2021.

EGU21-6059 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Sr isotope fractionation in a karst river: case study of Krka, Croatia

Sonja Lojen, Qasim Jamil, Tea Zuliani, Leja Rovan, Tjaša Kanduč, Polona Vreča, Marko Štrok, Elvira Bura Nakić, and Neven Cukrov

Precipitation of calcite from water fractionates strontium (Sr) isotopes because of preferential incorporation of light (86Sr) isotopes into the solid phase, making continental carbonates one of the most 88Sr depleted reservoirs. It was suggested that carbonate precipitation is the most likely process controlling δ88/86Sr composition of karst water. Therefore, the 88Sr enrichment of river water could be used for the estimation of Sr and carbonate precipitation at catchment scale.

In the present study, we report on trace element partitioning and Sr isotope fractionation between tufa and water in the groundwater fed karst river Krka (Croatia). Water and tufa along with samples of bedrock and soil as the main contributors of dissolved and particulate Sr at seven main waterfalls and cascades along a 33 km section of the river were analysed for trace element and Sr isotope composition (δ88/86Sr).

The highest δ88/86Sr values were measured in soils and in siliciclastic rocks, while in limestone, the δ88/86Sr values were similar to those of old tufa precipitated in the period between 96 and 141 ky BP. Recent tufa, however, was considerably depleted in 88Sr. The isotope fractionation between water and recent tufa varied a lot and was inversely correlated with Mg and Sr partitioning coefficients, while correlations with precipitation rates and temperature were rather weak. The δ88/86Sr of recent tufa was strongly correlated with the stable isotope composition of organic carbon, which indicates that apart from hydrochemical, hydraulic parameters and temperature, plants and microbial communities that knowingly stimulate the tufa formation also affect the isotope fractionation of Sr.

How to cite: Lojen, S., Jamil, Q., Zuliani, T., Rovan, L., Kanduč, T., Vreča, P., Štrok, M., Bura Nakić, E., and Cukrov, N.: Sr isotope fractionation in a karst river: case study of Krka, Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6059, 2021.

EGU21-9821 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Assessing the residence time of water in volcanic lakes of north Cameroon using bomb-36Cl and stable isotopes

Souleyman Abba, Bruno Hamelin, Pierre Deschamps, Yannick Garcin, David Badoga, Roger Tamonkem Adzeh, Bouba Djangue Moustapha, and Benjamin Ngounou Ngatcha

The Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL) in Central Africa hosts numerous volcanic lakes. While Nyos and Monoun lakes in western Cameroon were well studied following the catastrophic release of CO2 that occurred in 1980s, other volcanic lakes such as those of the Adamaoua Plateau remain less documented. Although some of these (Mbalang and Tizon) have been investigated through their sedimentary archives in order to reconstruct past-environments, the functioning of these hydro-systems located in the northern part of the CVL is not well constrained. Here, we characterize the hydrological functioning of five volcanic lakes by coupling classical hydrology methods and isotope tracers. Specifically, we assess water residence time in these lakes using radioactive (36Cl) and stable isotopes of water.

36Cl is a cosmogenic isotope of chlorine produced naturally in the stratosphere by spallation of 40Ar induced by cosmic-rays and has been massively injected into the atmosphere by nuclear tests during the 1950s. This pulse of bomb-36Cl can thus be used as a tracer to estimate recharge rates in the unsaturated zone and to constrain water transit times at a regional scale. While water stable isotopes have been widely used to establish lakes hydrological balance in Sahelian regions, only a few studies have been reported to date using 36Cl for the same purpose in tropical areas.

In this study, together with major elements and stable isotopes, we analyzed 36Cl contents in water from lakes Mbalang, Tabere, Tizon, Gegouba and Baledjam around Ngaoundere, to assess residence time in these lacustrine systems. 36Cl/Cl ratios range from 1400.10-15 to 2800.10-15 at/at and are significantly higher than the natural baseline as assessed by data obtained in local groundwater or at a larger scale in the Lake Chad Basin (36Cl/Cl ~200.10-15 at/at, see Bouchez et al., Scientific Reports, 2019). These 36Cl/Cl ratios above the natural baseline are clearly tagged with the bomb-36Cl footprint. We will illustrate at the meeting how a simple transient-state one-box model can be used to explain why these lakes have different 36Cl/Cl ratios, and how these results can help to constrain the E/I ratios of the lakes, and be compared with their hydrological characteristics and stable isotopes signatures.

How to cite: Abba, S., Hamelin, B., Deschamps, P., Garcin, Y., Badoga, D., Tamonkem Adzeh, R., Djangue Moustapha, B., and Ngounou Ngatcha, B.: Assessing the residence time of water in volcanic lakes of north Cameroon using bomb-36Cl and stable isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9821, 2021.

The origin and distribution of unwanted thermogenic gas in aquifers and domestic water wells in petroliferous basins are of continuing concern. Most published studies to date consider only a few water wells with little or no information on fugitive gases from nearby energy wells.   We mapped δ13C of  hydrocarbons in 1,124  domestic water wells and fugitive gases (many thousands) from energy wells of Alberta, Canada.  About 90% of the water wells that exsolve hydrocarbons produce methane derived locally by microbes. The δ13C of these biogenic methanes vary regionally and follows topography,  suggesting in situ generation of methane within a flowing aquifer perhaps following a Rayleigh constrained generation process. Some domestic water wells have free thermogenic butanes, propane and ethanes indicating the impact of thermogenic gas on the aquifer.  The δ13C of these thermogenic sourced gases impacting domestic water wells matches those of nearby energy wells indicating their failure as the ultimate source of thermogenic gas in domestic water wells.  The impacted water wells are geographically grouped. Our regional mapping of hydrocarbon gases in domestic water wells has identified specific, kilometre scale regions needing detailed hydrogeological and geochemical investigation.

How to cite: Gonzalez Arismendi, G. and Muehlenbachs, K.: Identifying the regional impact of deep thermogenic gas on aquifers in Alberta, Canada by  comparing multilayered isoscape maps of domestic water wells and fugitive gases from energy wells, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8954, 2021.

EGU21-12113 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Mobilization of bacteriophages from soil matrix to soil water in the Attert River basin: A case study

Perrine Florent, Henry-Michel Cauchie, and Leslie Ogorzaly

Bacteriophages are numerous, tremendously diverse and ubiquitous in the environment. Since the 1960s, bacteriophages have been proposed as new tracers to investigate the hydrological processes in addition to conventional tracers (i.e. isotopes, salts, dyes). Their dynamic into water (i.e. surface water, groundwater) have been well studied. However, the soil compartment known for its important microbial activity, have been few characterized in terms of bacteriophage diversity. Hence, in the present study, the objective is to investigate the transport of soil viral population from the soil matrix to the soil water compartment. This mobilization from the soil matrix is mainly driven by the adsorption/desorption mechanisms to which bacteriophages are subjected. Therefore, in order to understand the dynamics of the bacteriophage population, both soil and soil water were sampled from the Weierbach forest, located in the Attert River basin (Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg) at the topsoil level (i.e. 0-20 cm) over a period of one month. Due to a lower abundance of the microbial population in soil water, an enrichment method was carried out to increase the concentration. Subsequently, a shotgun metagenomics analysis was performed on the soil and soil water samples to obtain the DNA sequences, which were then sorted using bioinformatics and statistical analyses, allowing ultimately the identification of the viral populations. The moving of the bacteriophage populations from the soil to the soil water provides information on their transport capacity, in particular by taking into account environmental conditions such as air and soil temperatures, precipitation, soil humidity, soil pH, etc.  

 

Key words: bacteriophages, soil, water, transport, environmental conditions

How to cite: Florent, P., Cauchie, H.-M., and Ogorzaly, L.: Mobilization of bacteriophages from soil matrix to soil water in the Attert River basin: A case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12113, 2021.

Forest disturbance resulting from bark beetle infestation is becoming a widespread phenomenon due to climate warming and changing precipitation patterns. Such disturbance could result in alterations of streamflow and stream geochemistry. Our previous study found that these changes developed relatively rapidly after infestation and have long-lasting (decadal-scale) effects. Furthermore, infestation-induced changes in event-scale dynamics of in-stream electric conductivity (EC) – discharge (Q) relations were found to be considerable, impacting even the annual average EC-values. In this study, therefore, all rainfall-induced runoff events occurring during an 11-year period were identified and their distinct EC-Q relations were evaluated. The evaluation was done based on 10-min high-frequency monitoring of Q and EC and in four experimental catchments (~4 km2 each; located in the Sumava Mountains, Central Europe), having different forest cover (disturbance) stages. Furthermore, snapshot sampling was carried out to map EC and chemical parameters (N, DOC, etc.) in different hydrological landscape units (riparian area, hillslope, and terrace) and in multiple vertical layers of soil (surface, soil, and groundwater). Results showed that after infestation the EC-Q hysteresis loops at the event-scale shifted from positive to negative relationships, implying changes in the subsurface chemical composition and runoff patterns. Specifically, healthy forest systems required event flows to mobilize substances in the soil and groundwater systems as the groundwater level rose into the relatively conductive, shallow part of the soil profile during an event. Such flush-driven systems were known for their release of large fractions of total annual in-stream substance loads showing a positive EC-Q relationship. By contrast, after infestation-induced tree mortality, the mobilization and downward percolation of nutrients and carbon from litter and decomposing needles may be considerable even during moderate rain and infiltration events. When the system is flooded under event conditions, substance-enriched soil water and groundwater may be mixed with and diluted by low-salinity event water, leading to a negative EC-Q relationship.  This study exemplifies how EC monitoring techniques can be used as an alternative to high-cost geochemical monitoring in quantifying complex rainfall-runoff processes as well as runoff generation processes, allowing for long monitoring periods at high temporal resolution and reasonable costs.

How to cite: Su, Y. and Langhammer, J.: Geochemical transformation of forested catchments following bark beetle infestation: Evidence from EC hysteresis during rainfall-runoff events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15614, 2021.

EGU21-14226 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

Stable isotopes as a tool for determining transformation and fate of sulphur in AMD affected water bodies in Meghalaya

Vivek Kumar, Dibyendu Paul, and Sudhir Kumar

Meghalaya, also known as ‘abode of clouds’, is a state located in north-eastern part of India, blessed with abundance of water resources. In the last few decades, extensive coal mining in different parts of Meghalaya has caused detrimental changes in the environment, particularly the aquatic systems. Acid and metal loaded effluents (also known as acid mine drainage or AMD), resulting from the exposure of sulphide mineralization to oxidizing conditions from abandoned or active mining areas, are the principal environmental problems today. Sulphate (SO42-) is a major contaminant and attracts widespread attention as the dominant form of sulphur in coal mining affected aquatic systems. The increased presence of SO42- in ecosystems affected by mining activities has immense negative environmental and human health effects. Low pH and high heavy metal concentrations have been reported from streams flowing in and around the coal mining area in Meghalaya rendering the water quality to be very poor  and unfit for use as potable water.

Stable isotopes have emerged as a promising environmental tracer to understand different environmental functions and processes. Valuable information on the sources and processes can be obtained from the stable isotope ratios of chemical elements in environmental samples as the sources and processes influence history of the samples. Stable isotopes analysis combined with hydrochemical analysis enhances our understanding of transformation and environmental fate of different compounds in water bodies and can provide precise information about factors responsible for controlling water chemistry of different water bodies.

Stable isotopes of sulphur and oxygen combined with hydrochemical parameters were used as a tool for determining origin, transformation and fate of sulphur in AMD affected water bodies in Meghalaya.The study was conducted on two rivers affected by AMD, viz. Myntdu River and Lunar-Lukha River, flowing in the Jaintia Hills region of Meghalaya. The water samples collected are analysed for hydrochemical parameters and stable sulphur and oxygen isotopes (δ34S and δ18O in aqueous SO42-). The stable isotopes of sulphur and oxygen were also analysed in the coal samples from the nearby mining areas. The result provided an insight into the transformational processes of sulphur in these two AMD affected rivers and the environmental fate of sulphur.

How to cite: Kumar, V., Paul, D., and Kumar, S.: Stable isotopes as a tool for determining transformation and fate of sulphur in AMD affected water bodies in Meghalaya, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14226, 2021.

EGU21-15881 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.2

The role of seagrass leaf litter in the SGD-derived nutrient fluxes in Cala Pudent (Menorca, western Mediterranean)

Julia Rodriguez-Puig, Irene Alorda-Montiel, Marc Diego-Feliu, Aaron Alorda-Kleinglass, Valentí Rodellas, and Jordi García-Orellana

The assessment of the biogeochemical cycles in coastal environments often relies on riverine inputs as the main source of nutrients and other dissolved compounds from land to the ocean. However, the discharge of groundwater through continental margins, commonly known as Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD), is also recognized as relevant sources of nutrients to the coastal ocean, particularly in oligotrophic and semi-arid environments, such as the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we use radioactive tracers (radium isotopes and radon) to i) quantify the magnitude of SGD-driven nutrient fluxes to a Mediterranean cove (Cala Pudent, Menorca, Balearic Islands) and ii) characterize the nutrient transformations occurring in the beach before groundwater discharges to the sea. Cala Pudent is a limestone coastal cove with a restricted connection to the open sea. In this system, groundwater from a permanent spring infiltrates through an organic substrate dominated by thick deposits of seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) leaf litter and flows into the sea. This substrate, together with the dynamic groundwater-seawater mixing, are chiefly influencing the nutrient enrichment and transformation occurring in the beach and thus modulating the SGD-derived nutrient input to the sea. The ecological implications of these inputs are also assessed, particularly for the Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa meadows located near the study site.  

 

How to cite: Rodriguez-Puig, J., Alorda-Montiel, I., Diego-Feliu, M., Alorda-Kleinglass, A., Rodellas, V., and García-Orellana, J.: The role of seagrass leaf litter in the SGD-derived nutrient fluxes in Cala Pudent (Menorca, western Mediterranean), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15881, 2021.

HS2.2.4 – Drivers and impacts of freshwater salinisation: from data to modelling approaches across spatio-temporal scales

EGU21-710 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4 | Highlight

Freshwater salinisation: a global challenge with multiple causes and drastic consequences

Miguel Cañedo-Argüelles

Freshwater salinisation (FS) can be defined as the alteration of the salt concentrations and ion ratios in freshwater ecosystems. As evidence of the economic, environmental and societal impacts of FS mounts, the issue is receiving increasing attention from researchers, water managers and policy makers. A general consensus is emerging that FS is a global ecological and societal challenge that urgently requires effective management. However, there are still many unanswered questions that hamper our ability to make progress. In this talk I will tackle some of these questions. For example: Which human activities are contributing the most to FS in different regions of the world? How does FS interacts with other stressors (including climate change)? What is the effect of FS on trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning? Which are the economic costs and human health risks associated with FS? How should we monitor FS? Which technical and nature-based solutions are available to prevent and mitigate FS and to restore salinised ecosystems?

How to cite: Cañedo-Argüelles, M.: Freshwater salinisation: a global challenge with multiple causes and drastic consequences, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-710, 2021.

EGU21-7470 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

An integrated perspective on salinization of freshwater ecosystems

Cátia Venâncio and Isabel Lopes

Salinization of freshwater ecosystems due to seawater intrusion and/or man-driven activities (e.g. salt use as de-icers) has gained much attention in the last years as it may lead to the loss of important services aside the evident lessen of biodiversity.

As an easier way to deliver information on the potential ecotoxicological effects of increased osmotic stress in freshwaters, many studies used sodium chloride (NaCl) as a surrogate salt.  Despite, other ions are present in salt mixtures and, it has been suggested that ion-specific guidelines must be developed in order to construct more effective and environmentally protective frameworks. Yet, ecotoxicity data available for other salts is quite poor, outdate, and neglects the effects that may be caused to important ecological groups. A broader range of ecological groups and up-to-date information is urgently needed. Thus, this work aimed at: i) delivering new data on the ecotoxicity effects of other major salts sharing a common anionic form with NaCl (MgCl2, KCl, and CaCl2); ii) deriving hazard concentrations that protect 5% of population (HC5) for each salt in order to compare and provide future working and discussion material intended to be integrated in the so long wanted ion-specific guidelines; iii) evaluating the suitability of other(s) salts as a substitute for NaCl, and that might constitute a more conservative approach for the protection of freshwater ecosystems; and, iv) within the perspective of climate-change associated sea level rise, induced salinization to compare the aforementioned HC5 values with that obtained for natural seawater (NSW).

To our knowledge, we provide here median effective concentrations for MgCl2, KCl, and CaCl2 notreported before for two freshwater species: Brachionus calyciflorus (a filter-feeder) and Hydra viridissima (cnidarian). Furthermore, the following HC5 (in mg Cl-/L; and respective confidence limits at 95% and R2 - curve fitness) were obtained: 0.56 (0.38-0.83; R2=0.92) for NaCl; 0.12 (0.02-0.88; R2=0.77) for MgCl2; 0.26 (0.19-0.34; R2=0.95) for KCl; and 0.53 (0.32-0.82; R2=0.90) CaCl2. These values indicate firstly that the lack of data points is reflected in the spread of the confidence limits and the lowest adjustment of the curve to the model (e.g., MgCl2) but also that the integration of different species is of great relevance due to the broad inter-species variability; secondly, that ecotoxicity induced by KCl is lower than that induced by NaCl and so, KCl might be in the future proposed as a surrogate for NaCl, although ecotoxicity data must be largely expanded so that solid conclusions can be withdrawn. Finally, the comparison of the HC5 here derived with those derived in previous works for NSW (1.17 and 6.64 mg Cl-/L at sublethal and lethal levels) suggested that along with NaCl, also KCl might be used as a surrogate for NSW (with the cautions above mentioned).

This work aside from providing new data liable to be included in guidelines for the protection of freshwater systems, shows that this topic continues to require investment from laboratory (and field) research, but that this knowledge must be shared with regulatory agents and stakeholders, aiming accurate and targeted management actions.

How to cite: Venâncio, C. and Lopes, I.: An integrated perspective on salinization of freshwater ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7470, 2021.

EGU21-15270 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Global drying of major saline lakes

Jerker Jarsjö and Josefin Thorslund

Water resources are deteriorating across the world, which is of particular concern in water-scarce arid and semi-arid regions. Saline lakes often lack outflow, and are vulnerable to environmental change. When they start to shrink, salinity levels increase, due to evapoconcentration of salts in the reduced water volumes. This may harm the aquatic environment and limit the usability for humans. The associated exposure of their dry lakebeds may also bring severe regional problems of wind-blown saline dust and soil degradation. Although some of the world’s major cases of lake drying have been well studied, like the case of the Aral Sea desiccation, there is a lack of coherent assessments made at the global scale. Such assessments are critical for identifying vulnerable regions and main drivers of change, which may contribute to the prevention of future catastrophes. We here synthesise information on and analyse the desiccation status of 28 major saline lakes, each one of them having a surface area of ≥ 100 km2 and salinity of ≥ 10 g·L-1. They are geographically distributed over the world’s all continents, except Europe and Antarctica. In total, our results show that more than half of the world’s major saline lakes have dried up considerably in the last couple of decades. Out of these, 36 % are already, or are close to being completely desiccated. Preliminary analyses show correlations between original lake depth, lake bathymetry and resulting lakebed exposure from drying, suggesting that a lake’s general resilience to drying may be predictable. Our estimates further show that the world’s major saline lakes together contain 1177 billion tonnes of salt, of which 79 billion tonnes are currently in drying or already dried up lakes. If all of these lakes would desiccate, around 1 billion people are currently living within reach of saline dust storms that could spread from dry lakebeds.

How to cite: Jarsjö, J. and Thorslund, J.: Global drying of major saline lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15270, 2021.

EGU21-16299 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4 | Highlight

Freshwater Salinization Syndrome:  Emerging Global Problem and Risk Management

Sujay Kaushal, Gene Likens, Paul Mayer, Michael Pace, Jenna Reimer, Carly Maas, Joseph Galella, Ryan Utz, Shuiwang Duan, Julia Kryger, Alexis Yaculak, Walter Boger, Nathan Bailey, Shahan Haq, Kelsey Wood, Barret Wessel, Daniel Collison, and Belie Aisin

Freshwater salinization is an emerging global issue impacting safe drinking water, ecosystem health and biodiversity, and infrastructure.  The complex interrelationships between salt ions and chemical, biological, and geologic parameters and consequences on the natural, social, and built environment are called Freshwater Salinization Syndrome (FSS).  We analyze and discuss the expanding magnitude and scope of FSS including its discovery of widespread geographic importance in humid regions and connections to human-accelerated weathering and mobilization of ‘chemical cocktails,’  We also present empirical data analyses illustrating changes in FSS and its water quality impacts across time and space. We outline several frontiers in FSS research, and we also identify new management strategies and tradeoffs.   

How to cite: Kaushal, S., Likens, G., Mayer, P., Pace, M., Reimer, J., Maas, C., Galella, J., Utz, R., Duan, S., Kryger, J., Yaculak, A., Boger, W., Bailey, N., Haq, S., Wood, K., Wessel, B., Collison, D., and Aisin, B.: Freshwater Salinization Syndrome:  Emerging Global Problem and Risk Management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16299, 2021.

It is well known that mining activities have negative effects on fluvial ecosystems. Such activities alter the water quality by introducing heavy metals and associated pollutants and alter the sediment regime by creating a point source sediment that may affect the entire basin. 

In the Llobregat River, a medium Mediterranean river basin (ca. 5000 km2), potash salt mining activities have been undertaken for several decades. Salinisation of surface river water has become an environmental issue of great concern for the water administrators given that the water of this river supplies half of the population of the metropolitan area of Barcelona (ca. 2,500,000 inhabitants) and it is also used for irrigation in the lowermost part of the river and its delta.

This study aims to describe the magnitude of the dissolved solids inputs that are detected in the river surface water after rainfall events by means of continuous electrical conductivity monitoring. Electrical conductivity records (EC) were obtained from an automatic water quality monitoring station set by the Water Catalan Authorities and located 3 km downstream from the potash mountain waste.  The study also tries to predict the EC peak according to different hydrometeorological parameters selected from the episodes recorded.

Data analysed was continuously recorded at 15-minute interval between January 1st, 2018 and September 30th, 2020 and a total of 74 EC episodes were considered. Mean EC of the episodes recorded was 3,488 µS/cm, with a standard deviation of 3,638 µS/cm, and a coefficient of variation of 104.3%. The median was 2,390 µS/cm. Data obtained show that after rainfall events a peak of electrical conductivity in the river is detected. However, it exhibits a high variability in its magnitude, ranging from 939 µS/cm up to 26,900 µS/cm. Despite this, the coefficients of determination of the regression lines between the meteorological variables, such as rainfall intensity or total rainfall amount, and the peak EC exhibit poor correlations (R2=0.355 and R2=0.229, respectively), although they are significant.

Results indicate that washload processes in the salt mountain waste take place and reach the river producing extremely high EC peak values during a short period of time. Such values can have harmful effects on the river ecosystem and affect the lowerland river area, where water is diverted for potabilization and irrigation purposes. However, the low correlation between rainfall and EC peak indicates that additional variables intervene in the rainfall-runoff processes and further research is required to fully understand the connectivity and transmission of the salt moutain waste into the river. Understanding such processes and analyasing the consequences on the fluvial system, will probably be the way to tackle the restoration of this enormous impact on this river ecosystem.

How to cite: Farguell, J.: Potash mining mountain waste and its contribution to river water salinisation: the case of the Llobregat River, Catalonia, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7163, 2021.

EGU21-5118 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Modelling the properties and stability of meromixis induced by saline mine waters in two boreal lakes

Karoliina Kehusmaa, Janne Juntunen, Saija Saarni, Peter Österholm, and Tommi Kauppila

Mine waters are a significant point source stressor for aquatic environments. Acid mine drainage has long been considered a big environmental issue, but recent studies suggest that the salinity of mine waters may also be harmful particularly to small, dimictic lakes which are abundant in the boreal region. The denser saline mine waters may cause a shift in the mixing regime of a lake, leading to a permanent stratification of the water column, i.e. meromixis. As the demand for raw materials increases, mining companies, policy makers, and environmental regulators need to be more aware of these harmful effects of saline mine waters. In this study, two lakes receiving drainage waters from closed copper-nickel mines are investigated. Lake Valkeinen and Lake Sortavalanjärvi are situated in Eastern Finland near the mines Kotalahti (active 1959–1987) and Laukunkangas (active 1986–1994), respectively. The waters from the mines have been managed according to the permit conditions and in the case of Lake Valkeinen are primarily discharged elsewhere. Nevertheless, the mixing regimes of the lakes have seemingly shifted to meromictic.

To study the present conditions of the lakes, water samples and in-situ water column measurements were collected seasonally. Lake Valkeinen was sampled in 2017 and 2018, and Lake Sortavalanjärvi in 2018. Inflowing and outflowing streams were also sampled at both locations. Element concentrations and other chemical properties were analysed from the water samples. The stability of meromixis under varying conditions in the lakes was modelled with MATLAB-based open source model code MyLake that was modified to account for the changing density caused by increased salinity. This was done using conductivity as an explaining quantity.  

The results suggest that the lakes are permanently stratified at present with a chemocline separating the circulating, well-oxygenated upper water (mixolimnion) from the non-circulating, hypoxic bottom water (monimolimnion). The maximum depth of both lakes is ca. 16 m and the chemocline is situated at the depth of 8-10 m with some seasonal shifting in both lakes. In Lake Valkeinen, electrical conductivity (EC) was ca. 500 mS m-1 in the mixolimnion on all occasions and ca. 600 mS m-1 or more in the monimolimnion. In Lake Sortavalanjärvi, EC was ca. 600 mS m-1 in the mixolimnion and ca. 1200 mS m-1 in the monimolimnion. pH was circumneutral, with a slightly lower pH in the monimolimnia of the lakes on most occasions. Main anions were S and SO4 in both lakes, while main cations were Ca, Mg, Na, and K. SO4 concentrations were 250-280 mg l-1 in the deepest part of Lake Valkeinen and 520-640 mg l-1 in Lake Sortavalanjärvi. The results from MyLake scenarios suggest that the meromixis would be sustained even if external load ceased completely and a change in prevailing wind conditions is the only factor that could significantly alter the situation. The elevated concentrations of the conservative elements inflowing from the mine area coupled with a favourable position of the lakes in relation to main wind directions seem to sustain the meromictic conditions in these lakes.

How to cite: Kehusmaa, K., Juntunen, J., Saarni, S., Österholm, P., and Kauppila, T.: Modelling the properties and stability of meromixis induced by saline mine waters in two boreal lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5118, 2021.

EGU21-12111 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Using Earth Observation to track lithium movements in the Salar de Uyuni region, Bolivia

Cristian Rossi, Jonathan Ford, Maral Bayaraa, Luke Bateson, Andrew Butcher, Evi Petavratzi, and Andrew Huges

The increasing global effort to overcome the reliance on fossil fuels is driving the demand for ‘green’ metals such as lithium. This study aims to develop a repeatable and seamless workflow to track the mass of lithium from its source in the watershed surrounding South American salt lakes (“salars”) to the nucleus of the salar itself. The area of interest is in and around the Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia, the largest salt flat in the world. We aim to create an understanding of how Li brine deposits develop, where the water and solute comes from, how the brines are created and how does abstraction affect the mass balance within the salar. For this research, open source Earth observation (EO) data is analysed to support geological and hydrological research. We explore the potentials of EO data for several research aspects, such as (1) Jointing: it may influence fracture-flow of groundwater and also be significant in terms of surface-area for water-rock interaction, i.e. potentially increasing the ‘leaching’ rates of Li from the bedrock into the water; (2) Weathering: the degree and style of weathering may influence the liberation of Li from rocks into the water; (3) Distribution of clays: the distribution of clays that may restrict the liberation of Li from weathered rock, or may scavenge Li from passing water; (4) Water and moisture: the distribution of water-bodies and sources, including active streams, springs etc. We are building a groundwater recharge model having as input soil moisture content; (5) Geological structure: the presence of neotectonic faults that may disrupt the salar, as well as structures that may provide pathways for the flow of fluids; (6) Lithological mapping and classification: possible refinement of existing geological maps. This workflow will support the sustainable management of lithium in the region. Moreover, the provision of “fit for purpose” systems of tracking Li helps in filling gaps in existing methods to enable Li brines resources to be correctly reported.

How to cite: Rossi, C., Ford, J., Bayaraa, M., Bateson, L., Butcher, A., Petavratzi, E., and Huges, A.: Using Earth Observation to track lithium movements in the Salar de Uyuni region, Bolivia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12111, 2021.

EGU21-10641 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Drivers of spatio-temporal salinity distribution in a hypersaline lake

Fatemeh Chamanmotlagh and Ammar Safaie

Increased salinisation of surface waters poses growing threats to agro- and aquatic ecosystems around the world. One extreme example is Lake Urmia, in northwestern Iran, which is one of the largest hypersaline lakes. Due to anthropogenic and climate-induced changes, the salinity of Lake Urmia has reached a maximum level of 420 PSU in recent years. This high salinity has endangered the food web and biodiversity in the regional ecosystem and caused an ecological regime shift. However, salinisation processes in the lake have not been well-explored yet. To address this, a combination of in-situ and remote sensing observations along with a numerical hydrodynamic model was used to study the salinity dynamics of the lake. To simulate the water salinity distribution, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the lake was developed based on Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) and validated using field data. Wind field, heat flux, precipitation, and surface water evaporation were constructed based on meteorological data. The PHREEQC inverse modeling was then applied to obtain the precipitation and dissolution rates of minerals species. Simulated results indicate that the sedimentation and dissolution of minerals have a significant effect on the salinity levels of the lake. Although brine discharges of rivers to the lake increase the salinity of the lake, the elevated salinity of the lake is dominantly caused by the salt precipitation/dissolution processes. The results of this study provide a better understanding of the impact of precipitation and dissolution mechanisms on salinity dynamics in saltwater bodies.

How to cite: Chamanmotlagh, F. and Safaie, A.: Drivers of spatio-temporal salinity distribution in a hypersaline lake, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10641, 2021.

EGU21-10738 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4 | Highlight

The sustainability of fresh groundwater resources in major deltas around the world

Joeri van Engelen, Gualbert Oude Essink, and Marc Bierkens

Increasing population, growth of cities and intensifying irrigated agriculture in the world’s deltas promote the demand for fresh water resources, accelerating groundwater extraction. This, in turn, leads to sea water intrusion and salt water upconing, which threaten near-future water and food security. Proper water management in deltas requires precise knowledge about the current status of the deltas’ fresh groundwater resources, in the form of a groundwater salinity distribution. However, this knowledge is scarcely present, especially at larger depths. In this research, we applied three-dimensional variable-density groundwater model simulations over the last 125 ka to estimate present-day fresh groundwater volumes for several major deltas around the world. We also compared these to current extraction rates and estimated the time until in-situ fresh groundwater resources are completely exhausted (ignoring local-scale problems), partly leading to groundwater level decline and mostly replacement with river water or saline groundwater. In this presentation we will share our findings, for example which deltas’ groundwater reserves presumably are under stress.

How to cite: van Engelen, J., Oude Essink, G., and Bierkens, M.: The sustainability of fresh groundwater resources in major deltas around the world, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10738, 2021.

EGU21-6024 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Parameter Estimation of a Decision-Support Seawater Intrusion Model Using Multiple Well and Geophysical Data

Cécile Coulon, Alexandre Pryet, and Jean-Michel Lemieux

In coastal areas, seawater intrusion is a main driver of groundwater salinization and numerical models are widely used to support sustainable groundwater management. Sharp interface models, in which mixing between freshwater and seawater is not explicitly simulated, have fast run times which enable the implementation of parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. These are essential steps for decision-support modeling, however their implementation in sharp interface models has remained limited. Few guidelines exist regarding which observations to use, and what processing and weighting strategies to employ. We developed a data assimilation framework for a regional, sharp interface model designed for management purposes. We built a sharp interface model for an island aquifer using the SWI2 package for MODFLOW. We then extracted freshwater head observations from shallow wells, pumping wells and deep open wells, and observations of the seawater-freshwater interface from deep open wells, time-domain electromagnetic (TDEM) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys. After quantification of measurement uncertainties, parameter estimation was conducted with PEST and a data worth analysis was carried out using a linear approach. Model residuals provided insight on the potential of different observation groups to constrain parameter estimation. The data worth analysis provided insight on these groups’ importance in reducing the uncertainty of model forecasts. Overall a satisfying fit was obtained between simulated and observed data, but observations from deep open wells were biased. While observations from deep open wells and geophysical surveys had a low signal-to-noise ratio, parameter estimation effectively reduced predictive uncertainty. Interface observations, especially from geophysical surveys, were essential to reduce the uncertainty of model forecasts. The use of different types of observations is discussed and recommendations are provided for future data collection strategies in coastal aquifers. This framework was developed in the Magdalen Islands (Quebec, Canada) and could be carried out more systematically for sharp interface seawater intrusion modeling.

How to cite: Coulon, C., Pryet, A., and Lemieux, J.-M.: Parameter Estimation of a Decision-Support Seawater Intrusion Model Using Multiple Well and Geophysical Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6024, 2021.

Mitchell Moulds1, Iain Gould2, Isobel Wright2, David Webster3 and Daniel Magnone1

1 School of Geography and Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln, UK

2 Lincoln Institute for Agri-Food Technology, University of Lincoln, UK

3 Listers Geotechnical Consultants, UK.

The UK’s food production relies on the Fens of Eastern England which contributes 11 % of the agri-food economy from just 4 % of England’s agricultural land. The success of agriculture is contingent upon the availability of water but, currently, approximately 75% of the UK’s arable land is within catchments prone to water stress. The dual challenges of climate change and the UK government’s ambition to increase productivity through sustainable intensification is likely to increase this. From work conducted elsewhere we know unsustainable extensive pumping of fresh groundwater can lower the water table significantly, induce seawater intrusion and cause upwelling of saline groundwater into the shallow groundwater system. A comparable aquifer on the coast of the Netherlands is threatened by a rising sea level and over extraction of groundwater and it is predicted severe salinisation will take place.

This is of concern in the Fens because groundwater resources are not well assessed, partly because historically the region has relatively low rates of groundwater abstraction, yet we know from interactions with farmers that more irrigation is anticipated. Thus, the development of an evidence base is critical to assessing sustainable agricultural intensification in the region. Our previous work has highlighted that in the case of acute coastal flooding along the east coast, up to 340,000 ha of cultivated crops could be at risk with an estimate cost of up to about £5,000/ha from the most severe saline inundations. Some estimates have suggested such a reduced harvest would cost the agri-food industry £3 billion annually risking 80,000 jobs and the nation’s food security. Groundwater salinization presents a chronic threat of similar nature. The aim of this project is to quantify the freshwater reserve in the shallow Fens and estimate sustainable levels of extraction.

In this project we tackle three research objectives. Firstly, we produce the first basin scale stratigraphic map of the shallow coastal Fens aquifer using high resolution British Geological Survey borehole records. Secondly, we survey and map the saline boundary and water table within the shallow coastal Fens aquifer using Electro Resistivity Tomography (ERT). Thirdly, we use MODFLOW to create the first groundwater flow model of the shallow coastal Fens aquifer with the data from the stratigraphic and freshwater maps from which we calculate sustainable irrigation extraction for the region.

Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the EU Interreg SalFar project. We thank landowners for their permissions to conduct our survey. 

How to cite: Moulds, M.: ERT assessment of saline intrusion and the volume of freshwater reserve in the UK Fens aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12289, 2021.

EGU21-16165 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

System-Dynamic models for groundwater management in SW Messinia, Greece. 

Giorgos Maneas, Erasmia Kastanidi, and Ioannis Panagopoulos

The EUs Water Framework Directive, was adopted on October 2000, and it has been the basis for water management in all the EU countries since then (EU-WFD, 2000). According to the EUs-WFD, the use of groundwater bodies can be considered as sustaibale only when the portion of the overall recharge not needed by the ecology is abstracted (EU-WFD, 2000). Nonetheless, there are still cases where the implementation of the EUs-WFD faces challenges, and there is a need to better communicate the above message to water users. But how can we achieve this at a local scale?

In this work, we present the example of SW Messinia, Greece, an interlinked coastal-inland area in the Eastern Mediterranean region. In this case study, the water supply for all water uses (agriculture, tourism, domestic use) depends on groundwater resources which are also the main freshwater provider to a coastal wetland with high ecological and commercial value (Birds directive 2009/147/EC; Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC). Due to man-made interventions over the last 70 years, the wetland has passed the tipping point of being brackish (Maneas et al., 2019), and at present it is characterized as saline with hypersaline conditions for nearly 30% of the year (Manzoni et al., 2020). Unless freshwater inputs are enhanced by restoring hydrologic connectivity between the wetland and the surrounding freshwater bodies, salinity in the lagoon is expected to increase even more under future drier and warmer conditions (Manzoni et al., 2020). But how can we balance between societal and ecological groundwater needs, and how future decision making can get a broader acceptance by the society?

Under COASTAL EU project (COASTAL, 2019), we use System Dynamic (SD) models for communicating with local stakeholders towards improving land-sea interactions. In this work, we present a model which describes how inland groundwater abstraction has impacts to the wetland’s salinity. The model is used as a basis for a discussion with stakeholders and the co-creation of sustainable decision making with broader acceptance.

Literature

EU WFD, 2000. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/index_en.html (Accessed on 20-01-2021).

Birds Directive 2009/147/EC (2009). The European Union Birds Directive. Available online at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=
CELEX:32009L0147 (accessed November 2, 2020) .

Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC (1992). The European Union Habitats Directive. Available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/legislation/
habitatsdirective/index_en.htm (accessed September 2, 2019).

Maneas, G., Makopoulou, E., Bousbouras, D., Berg, H., and Manzoni, S. (2019). Anthropogenic changes in a Mediterranean coastal wetland during the last century-the case of Gialova Lagoon, Messinia, Greece. Water 11:350. doi: 10.3390/w11020350 

Manzoni, S., Maneas, G., Scaini, A., Psiloglou, B. E., Destouni, G., and Lyon, S. W. (2020). Understanding coastal wetland conditions and futures by closing their hydrologic balance: the case of Gialova Lagoon, Greece. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24, 3557–3571. doi: 10.5194/hess-24-3557-2020

Maneas G, Bousbouras D, Norrby V and Berg H (2020). Status and Distribution of Waterbirds in a Natura 2000 Area: The Case of Gialova Lagoon, Messinia, Greece. Front. Ecol. Evol. 8:501548. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2020.501548

COASTAL [Collaborative Land-Sea Integration Platform] (2019). European Union’s H2020 Research and Innovation Programme Under Grant Agreement No. 773782. Available online at: https://h2020-coastal.eu/ (accessed 03 February, 2019).

How to cite: Maneas, G., Kastanidi, E., and Panagopoulos, I.: System-Dynamic models for groundwater management in SW Messinia, Greece. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16165, 2021.

Salinity is a pervasive problem in the coastal low-lying area of the deltas including Bangladesh located in one of the largest delta, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta. This delta is susceptible to episodic cyclones since it is nearly every 3 years hit by tropical cyclones in the early monsoonal season (April to June) or the early dry season (October to November). These successive cyclones associated with low-lying reclaimed lands that trigger extensive flooding and result in excess salinity in soil and surface water, which have led to low agricultural productivity. Salinity in drinking water causes negative effects on human health such as cardiovascular disease. A fully coupled surface-subsurface model was used to investigate the impact of the episodic cyclonic surges on the drinking pond and groundwater salinities in the coastal reclaimed lands of Dacope Upazila in southwest Bangladesh. We considered 5 scenarios: a cyclone hit the land in the monsoon season with remediation (clean-up the pond at (1) 7 days, (2) 3 months), a cyclone hit the land in the dry season with remediation (clean-up the pond at (3) 7 days (4) 9 months) and (5) the recurrent intervals of cyclones hit the land every 8 years. The hydrological parameters were calibrated from the fieldwork at DAB site in using in situ field observations. The results show that the episodic cyclones caused inevitable salinity to near-surface groundwater, and in pond water because of post-event delayed emptying of ponds and reversal of hydraulic head gradient. However, rapid remediation after a surge event may help avoid serious salinity in drinking water. The result of scenario 5 indicates that near-surface groundwater salinity progressively developed and move downward over time. The episodic surge events might be one of the reasons that cause shallow groundwater salinity in coastal Bangladesh. This study improves our understanding of salinization processes and how to manage drinking water ponds after a storm surge induced flooding in deltaic coastal settings.

How to cite: Tsai, C. S., Butler, A., and Hoque, M.: The effect of recurrent cyclonic surge events on drinking pond and near-surface groundwater salinities in coastal Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8962, 2021.

EGU21-16357 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Characterizing ground water salinity in Coastal Bangladesh by using observations and perception-based information

Mohammed Mofizur Rahman and Alexandra Nauditt

Salinity intrusion has become a serious threat to coastal areas worldwide, with severe effects on human health, agricultural production and ecosystem services. Coastal populations of Bangladesh, as with many other countries, are living with and experiencing rising salinity in drinking water on a daily basis. Water quality management requires reliable data based on continuous monitoring of freshwater at any abstraction source. However, such monitoring is costly and unavailable in most of the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Several perception studies based on semi-structured interviews have shown a strong potential to support environmental monitoring but inadequate for decision-making. Therefore, we attempted to capture state of water salinity through people’s experiences lenses, self-reported perception, and measured salinity. The overall objective of this study is therefore to evaluate if the perception of coastal inhabitants in Bangladesh adequately describes salinity loads in drinking water in space and time. In this paper, we are going to describe spatial and temporal variation of drinking water salinity in a coastal delta of Bangladesh. In addition, to present the analysis of self-reported perception on salinity in drinking water in compassion to measured actual salinity of tube-well water. Our initial analysis shows that there is a large spatial variation of salinity in drinking water but no seasonal variation. In addition to that, we found that salinity loads are differing with tube-well depths. The majority of the interviewed people were able to report salinity in drinking water when it was also measured, although with some mismatch between measured and perceived salinity. This might influenced by taste adaptation to salt and other socio-cultural factors.

The results suggest that our interdisciplinary approach is useful to explore the state of drinking water salinity in coastal areas, water consumption practices of the coastal community and we concluded that regular water quality monitoring along with people´s perception studies could better support the decision-making related to coastal water management.

How to cite: Rahman, M. M. and Nauditt, A.: Characterizing ground water salinity in Coastal Bangladesh by using observations and perception-based information, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16357, 2021.

EGU21-12908 | vPICO presentations | HS2.2.4

Looking for the present in the past: Paleoenvironmental analyses and Social-ecological memory to explore changes in the mangroves of the Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta - Colombia

Lina Gutierrez-Cala, Andrés C. Zúñiga, Catalina Gonzalez, Jorge Salgado, Lina M. Saavedra-Díaz, Constanza Ricaurte, Samuel C. Zipper, and Fernando Jaramillo

Compound anthropogenic pressures are driving critical mangrove degradation worldwide, threatening the wellbeing of coastal human populations historically associated with these systems. The Ramsar and Biosphere Reserve, Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) is located in the northern of Colombia and is the largest coastal lagoon-delta in the Caribbean. It is inhabited by stilt communities that have developed intricate livelihood and cultural relationships with the mangroves. The CGSM has experienced sustained social and ecological degradation during the last six decades, triggered by land-use change and disruption of hydrological connections. This study integrates Social-ecological Memory from fishing communities and Paleoenvironmental frameworks to develop a historical perspective of the biophysical and social dimensions of environmental change in the CGSM. Integrating X-ray fluorescence (XRF) geochemical sediment analysis, C14 radiocarbon dating, and demographic inferences from archaeological evidence revealed three distinct periods over the last ~5000 years where sea-level rise and hydroclimatic variability shaped the transition between freshwater to prevailing marine conditions and modulated human occupation patterns in the area. Specifically, the period with the highest hydroclimatic variability and precipitation minima (4000 – 2500 yr BP) is consistent with the lowest human population estimates, whereas sea-level increase (~ 2000 yr BP) corresponds with a sustained increase in estimated population growth. In connection, participatory oral reconstructions conducted in the stilt-house communities of Buenavista and Nueva Venecia, offered nuanced descriptions about the spatial, temporal, and contextual aspects generating and reinforcing hypersalinization of the system, and their profound social-ecological consequences over the past several decades. The interdisciplinary approach of this study indicates that the CGSM is a highly dynamic socio-ecological system that has been changing and reconfiguring across different time scales in response to both natural and human-induced processes. Finally, it reveals the relative effects of biophysical and social drivers on driving social-ecological change on millennial to decadal time scales.

How to cite: Gutierrez-Cala, L., Zúñiga, A. C., Gonzalez, C., Salgado, J., Saavedra-Díaz, L. M., Ricaurte, C., Zipper, S. C., and Jaramillo, F.: Looking for the present in the past: Paleoenvironmental analyses and Social-ecological memory to explore changes in the mangroves of the Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta - Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12908, 2021.

The secular change of ocean salinity is regarded as an indicator of the global water cycle by measuring the surface freshwater flux which is the most important component of earth hydrological budget. Under the effect of remarkable global warming, the surface salinity patterns in ocean basins illustrated that the intensified water cycle resulted in the continuous and significant freshening phenomena in tropical ocean. With the recent boom in salinity measurements and observations, the variability of surface salinity was examined to explore its relationship with anthropogenic warming. In this paper, we found that the salinity varied on the decadal to centurial time scales and responded significantly to the global warming in tropical Pacific Ocean by using the multi-source reanalysis datasets. An unexpected distribution was figured out and what is noteworthy is that, the robust salinification occurred in the central tropic Pacific in the first two decades of 21st which was demonstrated by Argo observations. Nevertheless, it did not follow the typical salinity patterns that ‘wet get wetter’ mentioned by several literatures and illustrated a significant trend shift. Similarly, the subsurface ocean salinity revealed the same shift but an opposite tendency to that on surface. It may involve that the controlling influence of surface freshwater reduced and the impact of ocean thermodynamic adjustment became gradually pronounced to the upper ocean. The salinity budget suggested that salinity advection and subsurface entrainment played key roles to induce the reversed trend of salinity change. In addition, the isopycnals variability caused by wind-driven ocean pumping and subtropical gyre may be acted as a trigger of the salinity enhancement in the upper ocean. What’s more, the impact of PDO decadal shift and the moderate global warming was seemed to be the essential factors to change the feedback of ocean-atmosphere processes, potentially and was finally reflected on ocean salinity field.

How to cite: Shi, H. and Du, L.: The unexpected salinity trend shifts in upper Tropical Pacific Ocean under the global hydrological cycle framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14698, 2021.

HS2.3.1 – Water quality at the catchment scale: measuring and modelling of nutrients, sediment and eutrophication impacts

EGU21-14526 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1 | Highlight

Assessing Nitrogen Legacies in Western Europe

Andreas Musolff, Sophie Ehrhardt, Rémi Dupas, Rohini Kumar, Pia Ebeling, and Jan H. Fleckenstein

Intensive agricultural land use have introduced vast quantities of nutrients such as reactive nitrogen (N) to soils and subsequently to groundwater and surface waters. High nitrate concentrations are still a pressing issue for drinking water safety and aquatic ecosystem health e.g. in Europe, although fertilizer inputs have been significantly lowered in the last decades. This is partly due to a slow response of riverine nitrate concentrations to changes in nitrogen inputs attributed to N legacies in catchments. N can be stored organically bound as a biogeochemical legacy in soils or can be slowly transported as nitrate in groundwater forming a hydrologic legacy. Legacy can thus lead to a net retention of N in catchments and to substantial time lags in the response to input changes. Here, we systematically explore legacy effects over a wide range of catchment in the Western European countries France and Germany. We are making use of long observational time series of nitrate concentration in 238 catchments covering 40% of the total area of France and Germany. We apply a Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) to derive continuous daily flow-normalized concentrations and loads. The temporal pattern of concentration and loads at the catchment outlet is compared to the N input time series evolving from agricultural N surplus, atmospheric deposition and biological fixation. We found that on long-term catchments retain on average 72% of the N input. Time lags between input and output were successfully explained by a lognormal transport time distribution. The modes of these distributions were found to be rather short with a median mode of 5.4 years across all catchments. Based on this data-driven assessment only the fate of N in the catchments is hard to assess as denitrification in soil and groundwater can lead to similar observations as the storage of N in legacies. Focusing on the mobile part of N that is exported by catchments, we estimate that a substantial amount of N is still stored in the subsurface that will be released in the coming years. We therefore analyzed how catchment nitrate export will evolve under the scenario of a total cut down, reduced or constant future N inputs. We report the expected timescale of reaction to implemented measures to help tackling this pressing water quality problem.

How to cite: Musolff, A., Ehrhardt, S., Dupas, R., Kumar, R., Ebeling, P., and Fleckenstein, J. H.: Assessing Nitrogen Legacies in Western Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14526, 2021.

EGU21-7812 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Towards Application of StorAge Selection Functions in Large-Scale Catchments with Heterogeneous Travel Times and Subsurface Reactivity

Tam Nguyen, Fanny Sarrazin, Stefanie R. Lutz, Rohini Kumar, Andreas Musolff, and Jan H. Fleckenstein

StorAge Selection (SAS) functions describe how a catchment selectively removes water and solute of different ages via discharge, thus controlling transit time distributions (TTDs) and solute composition of discharge. Previous studies have successfully applied SAS functions in a spatially lumped approach to capture catchment-scale transport phenomena of (non-)conservative solutes. The lumped approach assumes that water and solutes within a water parcel of a specific age are well-mixed. While this assumption does not cause any changes in the age of water, the spatial heterogeneity of solute concentrations within this water parcel is lost. In addition, in large catchments, headwater sub-catchments and lowland sub-catchments could behave in different ways, e.g., the transit times (TTs) and reaction rates between headwater and lowland sub-catchment could be of different magnitudes. This, in turn, might not be sufficiently represented in a lumped approach of SAS functions.

In this study, we applied the mHM-SAS model (Nguyen et al., 2020) with a semi-distributed approach of SAS functions. The nested mesoscale catchment (Selke catchment, Germany) with heterogeneous land use management practices, TTs, and subsurface reactivity was used as a case study. In addition to spatial variability, a functional relationship between the parameters of the SAS functions and storage dynamics was introduced to capture temporal dynamics of the selection preference for discharge. High frequency instream nitrate data were used to validate the proposed approach. Results show that the proposed approach can well represent nitrate export at both sub-catchment and catchment levels. The model reveals that catchment nitrate export is controlled by (1) the headwater sub-catchment with fast TTs and a high denitrification rate, and (2) the lowland sub-catchment with longer TTs and a low denitrification rate. In general, the proposed approach serves as a promising tool for understanding the interplay of transport and reaction times between different sub-catchments, which controls nitrate export in a mesoscale heterogeneous catchment.

Nguyen, T. V., Kumar, R., Lutz, S. R., Musolff, A., Yang, J., & Fleckenstein, J. H. (2020). Modeling Nitrate Export from a Mesoscale Catchment Using StorAge Selection Functions. Water Resources Research, 56, e2020WR028490

How to cite: Nguyen, T., Sarrazin, F., Lutz, S. R., Kumar, R., Musolff, A., and Fleckenstein, J. H.: Towards Application of StorAge Selection Functions in Large-Scale Catchments with Heterogeneous Travel Times and Subsurface Reactivity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7812, 2021.

The use of fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture activity is a worldwide extended practice since decades for improving crops performance, which can cause, however, with excessive dosage rates, aquifers’ pollution and water quality problems, like the study case hereby presented of Mar Menor sea-lake waterbody and “Campo de Cartagena” aquifer, in the southern coast of Spain.

Due the agricultural practices, the Campo de Cartagena aquifer presents in this moment high values of nitrate, around 150 mgNO3 / l, appearing also these high values of nitrogen in soil in this area. This situation produces a great contribution of nitrogen to the Mar Menor lake, by two mainly processes, firstly, continuously through groundwater returns to the waterbody’s surface and secondly, through the precipitation events when a large amount of nitrogen is washed from soil by the rainfall. Finally, the large amount of nitrogen incomes to the Mar Menor sea lake contributes to deteriorate the status of this waterbody and also promotes the eutrophication processes that have been taking place during last years.

A large watershed scale nitrates’ transport simulation model, Patrical Model (Perez-Martín et al., 2016), is used to estimate the measures to recovery the “Campo de Cartagena” aquifer. The model establishes, mathematically, the relationship between nitrogen application, nitrogen surplus (excess), and nitrate concentration in groundwater and surface waterbodies.

Model results show that it is necessary to reduce around 80% of the current nitrogen surplus in the “Campo de Cartagena” aquifer to recovery the good status in the aquifer. This reduction of nitrogen surplus can be obtained by reducing the fertilizers dosage and consequently the nitrates contribution, with a maximum dose of nitrogen applied by farmers of 170 kgN /ha. Applying this measure could reduce significantly the nitrogen retained in soil in 1-2 years, so the nitrogen contribution during rainfall events also could be reduced significantly. Nitrogen levels in groundwater will gradually decrease in the following years, reaching values around 50 mgNO3 / l in 7-9 years after the application of these measures.

How to cite: Gómez Martínez, G., Pérez-Martín, M. Á., and Estrela Segrelles, C. E.: “Application of Hydrological Simulation models to solve pollution impacts in the water management decision-making processes. Measures for the recovery of Mar Menor sea lake and “Campo de Cartagena” aquifer (Spain)”, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1605, 2021.

EGU21-215 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Exploring farm pond dynamics in low-order agricultural watersheds: A synthetic analysis and process-based modeling

Wenjun Chen, Daniel Nover, Josefin Thorslund, Jerker Jarsjö, Haw Yen, Pingping Luo, and Bin He

Farm ponds, which are sometimes numerous and widely distributed in agricultural regions, have faced widespread degradation in recent decades. Although relevant conservation strategies have gradually increased, detailed assessments on their roles in regional biogeochemistry and ecology are lacking. We concluded that farm ponds provided hydrologic, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic benefits to southern China for thousands of years, but they are facing contemporary threats and management challenges, including (1) inadequate planning in terms of construction and conservation regulations; (2) rural nonpoint source and mini-point source pollution; (3) climate change-induced abnormalities in the hydroperiod and disturbance to wildlife; (4) invasive species; and (5) inadequate social and political capacity to consider ecological conservation. As farm ponds function as wetland complexes that are embedded within or integral to larger ecosystems, we recommend multi-disciplinary efforts over scales ranging from within-pond to regional for their assessment and conservation.

Excessive nitrogen (N) discharge from agriculture is a major factor of widespread problems in aquatic ecosystems. Knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns and source attribution of N pollution in these small, scattered ponds is a critical first step for nutrient management and ecosystem health in low-order agricultural watersheds. We applied the process-based HSPF model for ponds, ditches, and downstream waters in a 4.8 km2 test watershed in southern China. The results exhibited distinctive spatial-seasonal variations with an overall seriousness rank for the three indicators: total nitrogen (TN) > nitrate/nitrite nitrogen (NOx--N) > ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). TN pollution was severe for the entire watershed, while NOx--N pollution was significant for ponds and ditches far from the village, and the NH3-N concentrations were acceptable except for the ponds near the village in summer. Although food and cash crop production accounted for the largest source of N loads, we discovered that mini-point pollution sources, including animal feeding operations, rural residential sewage, and waste, together contributed as high as 47% of the TN and NH3-N loads in ponds and ditches.

Our synthetic analysis and process-based modeling studies focused on farm ponds in an agriculturally dominated developing country (China), but similar small, scattered wetlands and their degradation trends are observed worldwide (e.g., vernal pools and prairie potholes in North American, farm ponds in Western and Central Europe, and chain of natural pond system in Australia). Nature-based solutions are becoming increasingly recognized as important for addressing the complex challenges in hydrology, ecology, and biodiversity under anthropogenic and climatic pressures. Apart from proposed conservation policies, including public awareness building, top-down regulations and bottom-up engagement, and sustainable management and utilization, we are also trying techniques that involve interconnected smart sensors and integrated modeling methods to better understand pond hydrological processes. We believe that such solutions can provide a basis for the numerical assessments on their ecosystem services and associated conservation cost analyses.

How to cite: Chen, W., Nover, D., Thorslund, J., Jarsjö, J., Yen, H., Luo, P., and He, B.: Exploring farm pond dynamics in low-order agricultural watersheds: A synthetic analysis and process-based modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-215, 2021.

EGU21-9149 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Spatial variation of stream water chemistry in the Shimanto River Basin in southwestern Japan: A comparison of results in 1999 and 2020

Yoshiyuki Inagaki, Masahiro Inagaki, Koji Shichi, Shuichiro Yoshinaga, Tsuyoshi Yamada, Satoru Miura, Yoshiki Shinomiya, and Kazumichi Fujii

Acidic deposition derived from human activities causes negative effects on nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems.  However, nutrient cycling of forest ecosystems is expected to recover because the emission of pollutants is generally decreasing in recent years.  However, the extent of recovery would be differed between forest ecosystems in different climatic conditions.  The study investigated changes of stream water chemistry of forest ecosystems in Shimanto River Basin in southwestern Japan.  The 92 samples of stream water were collected from forested watersheds in summer of 1999 and 2020 and chemistry of the samples was compared.  The mean pH value of the stream water in 2020 (7.60) was higher than that in 1999 (7.29).  The mean concentration of potassium ion increased by 2.1% whereas that of sodium, calcium, and magnesium ions decreased by 2.5%, 10.3%, and 8.6%, respectively.  The mean concentration of chloride, nitrate and sulfate ions decreased by 24.8%, 9.4% and 22.5%, respectively whereas that of bicarbonate increased by 0.7%.  The relationship between mean annual temperature and the ratio of ion concentration in 2020 to that in 1999 was analyzed.  The ratio of calcium and manganese concentration was lower at warmer sites.  The ratio of sulfate concentration was lower at warmer sites whereas the ratio of chloride concentration was not related with mean annual temperature.  The results suggest that the runoff of sulfate and chloride from forest ecosystems in the Shimanto River Basin have decreased presumably due to the reduced input of these elements and that the residence time of sulfur in forest ecosystems is shorter in warmer sites as indicated by the greater reduction of sulfate concentration.

 

How to cite: Inagaki, Y., Inagaki, M., Shichi, K., Yoshinaga, S., Yamada, T., Miura, S., Shinomiya, Y., and Fujii, K.: Spatial variation of stream water chemistry in the Shimanto River Basin in southwestern Japan: A comparison of results in 1999 and 2020, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9149, 2021.

EGU21-8756 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Deep learning for water quality prediction: the application of LSTM model to predict water quality in catchment scale

Amir Sahraei, Lutz Breuer, Philipp Kraft, and Tobias Houska

The prediction of water quality is an efficient way for managing water resources and protecting ecosystems by providing an early warning against water quality deterioration. So far, the classical approach is to predict water quality by the utilization of complex process-based water quality models. However, these models are not easy to set up and require comprehensive input data. The local characteristics, detailed process understandings and eventually data from land users such as farmers are needed, to build up a valid model structure. Such constraints can end up in wrong scientific conclusions ranging from false alarms to unpredicted environmental pollution in practical water monitoring application. Long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms are known to be able to overcome some of the typical constraints in hydrological model applications. However, their performance in water quality prediction has rarely been explored. In this study, we investigate the ability of a LSTM model to predict the complex, nonlinear behavior of water quality parameters in the Schwingbach Environmental Observatory (SEO), Germany.  We predict weekly nitrogen-nitrate concentrations, weekly stable isotopes of water concentrations (δ18O) and daily water temperature in six stream‑ and six groundwater sources with different landuse and hillslope conditions. We use meteorological forcing data and catchment attributes as input variables. To ensure an efficient model performance, we employ a Bayesian optimization approach to optimize the hyperparameters of the LSTM. The model performance is evaluated by the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Our LSTM is robust in capturing the dynamics of the water quality parameters over time. The RMSE for the LSTM performance ranges from 0.27 to 3.38 mg/l, from 0.069 to 0.27 ‰ and from 1.3 to 2.1 °C for nitrogen‑nitrate, δ18O and water temperature, respectively. We compare the RMSE with statistical parameters of data. Results confirm that the LSTM is a promising tool for early risk assessment of water quality, particularly in view that only a minimal set of catchment information is needed to gain robust results.

How to cite: Sahraei, A., Breuer, L., Kraft, P., and Houska, T.: Deep learning for water quality prediction: the application of LSTM model to predict water quality in catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8756, 2021.

Nitrogen (N) is one of the major pollutants to aquatic ecosystems. One of the key steps for efficient N reduction management at watershed scale is accurate quantification of N load. High frequency monitoring of stream water N concentration has not been common, and this has largely been the limiting factor for accurate estimation of N loading worldwide. N loads have often been estimated from sparse measurements. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of the physical-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and three commonly used regression methods, namely LI (linear interpolation), WRTDS (Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season), and the LOADEST (LOAD ESTimator) on estimating nitrate load from sparse measurements through a case study in an agricultural watershed in eastern Canada. The range of daily nitrate load of SWAT and LOADEST was 0.05-1.29 and 0.14 - 1.35 t day-1, compared with 0.13 - 13.08 t day-1  and 0.15 - 16.75 t day-1 for LI and WRTDS, respectively. Mean daily nitrate load estimated by the four methods followed the order: WRTDS > LI > LOADEST > SWAT. The large discrepancies were mainly occurred during the non-growing season during which there was observation data available. As regression methods use concentration data from dry seasons to estimate the concentrations of wet seasons, there is a strong likelihood of overestimation of nitrate load for wet seasons. The results of this study shed new light on nitrate load estimation under conditions of different data availability. Under situations of limited water quality measurement, policy makers or researchers are likely to benefit from using hydrological models such as SWAT for constituent load estimation. However, the selection of the most appropriate method for load estimation should be seen as a dynamic process, and case by case evaluation is required especially when only sparsely measured data is available. As agri-environmental water quality issues become more pressing, it is critical that data collection strategies that encompass seasonal variation in streamflow and nitrate concentration be employed in regions like Atlantic Canada in the future.

How to cite: Liang, K., Jiang, Y., and Meng, F.-R.: Large discrepancies on nitrate loading estimates from sparse measurements by SWAT and statistical models at catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10458, 2021.

Understanding the impacts of land use changes (LUCC) on the dynamics of water quantity and quality is necessary to identify suitable mitigation measures that are needed for sustainable watershed management. Lowland catchments are characterized by a strong interaction of streamflow and near-surface groundwater that intensifies the risk of nutrient pollution. In this study, a hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were used to quantify the impacts of different land use types on the variations in actual evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (SQ), base flow (BF), and water yield (WYLD) as well as on sediment (SED), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). To this end, the model was calibrated and validated with daily streamflow data (30 years) and daily sediment and nutrient data from measurement campaigns (3 years in total). Three model runs over thirty years were performed using the different land use maps of 1987, 2010, and 2019, respectively. Land use changes between those years were used to explain the modelled changes in water quantity and quality on the subbasin scale applying PLSR. SWAT achieved a good performance for streamflow (calibration: NSE=0.8, PBIAS=5.5%; validation: NSE=0.78, PBIAS=5.1%) and for TN (calibration: NSE=0.65, PBIAS= -11.3%; validation: NSE=0.87, PBIAS=2.7%) and an acceptable performance for sediment and TP (calibration: NSE=0.49-0.53, PBIAS=25.8% -29.7%; validation: 0.51-0.7, PBIAS= -23.9% - -8.7%) in Stör catchment. The variations in ET, SQ, BF, WYLD, SED, TP, and TN could be explained to an extent of 67%-88% by changes in the area, shape, dominance, and aggregation of individual land use types. They were largely correlated with the major LUCC in the study area i.e. a decrease of arable land, and a respective increase of pasture and settlement. The change in the percentage of arable land affected the dynamics of SED, TP, TN and BF, indicated by a Variable Influence on Projection (VIP) > 1.2 and largest absolute regression coefficients (RCs: 0.45-0.72 for SED, TP, TN; -0.84 for BF). The change in pasture area affected ET, SED, TP, and TN, as indicated by VIPs >1.  The change in settlement percentage had VIP up to 1.62 for SQ and was positively and significantly influenced it (RC: 1.28). PLSR helped to identify the key contributions from individual land use changes on water quantity and quality dynamics. These provide a quantitative basis for targeting most influential land use changes to mitigate impacts on water quality in the future.

How to cite: Lei, C., Wagner, P., and Fohrer, N.: Influences of land use changes on the dynamics of water quantity and quality in the German lowland catchment of the Stör, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6777, 2021.

EGU21-4215 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Predicting Responses of Chemical and Biological Water Quality to Human-induced Environmental Changes: The Case Study of Clariano River, Spain

Hamed Vagheei, Paolo Vezza, Guillermo Palau-Salvador, and Fulvio Boano

Abstract

Freshwater ecosystems provide many benefits to a variety of species but, unfortunately, human-caused environmental issues are undermining their ability to provide key functions and services. Changes in climate and land use, for instance, impact the habitat suitability for freshwater organisms by affecting water quantity and quality. Nutrients, pesticides, heavy metals and other contaminants which are released to the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities have the potential to degrade the environment and damage freshwater communities. Hence, the present research activity aims to investigate aquatic ecosystem responses to environmental deterioration using a case study of Clariano River, Spain. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as an eco-hydrological tool to model discharge, sediment and nutrients, and to predict the biological status in Clariano River under different scenarios. As the diversity and presence of species represent the quality of ecosystem, this study focuses on macroinvertebrates as biological indicators of stream health. The SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP program is used for the calibration, validation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model. The results from the calibrated model are then coupled to regression equations between measured nutrient concentrations and values of several macrobenthic metrics in six sampling sites along the Clariano River. The coupling of these regression equations with concentrations simulated with SWAT for different scenarios allows to improve the understanding of the relations between environmental changes in watersheds, nutrient concentrations, and the biologic status of stream water.

Keywords: water quality, macroinvertebrates, environmental degradation, eco-hydrological modelling, Clariano River

How to cite: Vagheei, H., Vezza, P., Palau-Salvador, G., and Boano, F.: Predicting Responses of Chemical and Biological Water Quality to Human-induced Environmental Changes: The Case Study of Clariano River, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4215, 2021.

Northern Ireland has been somewhat overlooked in terms of water quality modelling in the past. Many of its catchments have consistently failed to meet Water Framework Directive targets especially due to high levels of dissolved nutrients and poor ecological status. A catchment based modelling study to address this issue has not been undertaken here previously and the approach described here uses two water quality models to achieve this aim. The objectives of the modelling were firstly to identify the total load reductions (in terms of Phosphorus (P)) required to reduce in-stream loadings sufficiently for concentrations of soluble reactive P (SRP) to be reduced to achieve the WFD “Good” status levels, and secondly to split these loadings into diffuse and point components. The third objective was to identify the most likely flow pathways for the transport of the diffuse component of P to the watercourses particularly for the agricultural (mostly intensive grassland farming) land use which dominates in almost all NI catchments.

The first model applied is the Source Load Apportionment Model (SLAM) developed by the Irish EPA. This model provides a large-scale assessment of the point and diffuse load components across catchments where multiple pressures are occurring. The second model us the Catchment Runoff Flux Assessment Tool (CRAFT) which is able to back-calculate nutrient loads associated with three major flow pathways. SLAM is a static model which uses averaged loadings from diffuse agriculture and non-agricultural land uses, and point sources (where information can be obtained from various sources) to calculate N and P exports. For P, the agricultural diffuse load component uses an enhanced version of the export coefficient approach based on combining the sources of P from applied nutrients (slurry and fertiliser) and soil P. A modelling tool allows the user to evaluate load reduction scenarios where one or several components of P (both point and diffuse) are adjusted downwards to achieve the catchment’s required load reduction. The CRAFT model works on a dynamic (daily) modelling scale and has simulated sub-catchments where the SLAM model has identified the need for significant load reductions. It identifies the different reductions (P export) that are required for each flow pathway, which will then inform on the type of additional measures (e.g. sediment traps, riparian buffer strips and wetlands) that may also be required.

The initial aim of this study is to complete a pilot application to the trans-border (UK and ROI) Blackwater catchment (1360 km2). Through a review of alternative modelling options for the whole area of NI, an assessment of whether this approach is suitable for application to the entire territory can be made.

How to cite: Adams, R. and Doody, D.: Reducing Nutrient Loads in Northern Irish Catchments: A Modelling Approach Based on Load Apportionment and Flow Pathway Identification, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15216, 2021.

EGU21-6493 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Pressures and impact analysis in the Dnipro river basin within Ukraine

Nataliia Osadcha, Yurii Nabyvanets, Volodimir Osadchyi, Olha Ukhan, Valeriy Osypov, Yulia Luzovitska, Denis Klebanov, and Svitlana Biletska

The third largest European river Dnipro covers 48% of Ukraine’s territory. An analysis of the main anthropogenic pressures in the Dnipro Basin was first performed according to the requirements of EU WFD.

Surface water pollution by organic substances and nutrients is principally attributed with point sources, among which the municipal wastewaters play the dominant role. The main load by organic substances and nutrients is caused by the wastewater discharges of big cities with Population Equivalent >100 000; 89% of such cities are located within the sub-basins of Middle Dnipro and Lower Dnipro. 

Point sources form 33% of nitrogen and 61% of phosphorus loads in the Dnipro Basin. Diffuse sources related to agricultural production cause incoming of 29% of nitrogen and 36% of phosphorus. Phosphorus is transported to the water bodies mainly with erosion particles. 

Natural conditions in the River Basin are one of the reasons of nitrogen load significant share (33%). Humus compounds and nitrogen compounds enter into water bodies due to the high bogginess of the Dnipro Basin upper part, especially the Prypiaty Basin. This leads to winter and summer anoxia in the rivers and upper reservoirs and creates prerequisites for eutrophication of the Dnipro cascade reservoirs. Rivers of the Prypiaty sub-basin, Upper Dnipro, and Desna sub-basins are extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic pollution by nutrients and organic substances that generates the increased background of organic compounds and nitrogen in the Dnipro reservoirs cascade. 

The load of the Dnipro Basin surface water by hazardous substances (especially synthetic) still remains insufficiently studied. Currently, information is only available regarding load by heavy metals included to the list of priority substances and some other ones. Water pollution by metals is noted mostly in the Lower Dnipro sub-basin where the most of the metallurgical enterprises are located. 

The high application of pesticides (> 3 kg/ha) in 4 administrative Rayons leads to the appearance of risk conditions for pollution of xenobiotics in 50 surface water bodies (SWBs). 

The Dnipro reservoirs cascade serves as a powerful geochemical barrier causing heavy metals and pesticides deposition in bottom sediments. The highest pollution by metals is noted in the sediments of the Dnipro reservoirs that receive the metallurgy enterprises wastewaters. Probability of significant secondary remobilization is foremost noted for Cadmium. Organochloride pesticides content in the bottom sediments is 2 to 5 times lower than maximal allowable concentration in soil. 

Water abstraction volume is around 22% of the annual flow of 95% probability. The natural flow of the Dnipro is regulated by 6 large reservoirs. Besides, there are 1072 dams and other cross-sectional artificial installations. Natural morphology changes are observed in a large number of rivers within the Dnipro Basin. 

It was found that 56% of the Dnipro Basin SWBs are at risk of failing the “good” ecological status.

Hydromorphological alterations cause the main anthropogenic pressure in the Dnipro Basin (concerning 45% of the SWBs). Risks from diffuse sources and point sources are observed in 23% and 5% of SWBs, respectively.

How to cite: Osadcha, N., Nabyvanets, Y., Osadchyi, V., Ukhan, O., Osypov, V., Luzovitska, Y., Klebanov, D., and Biletska, S.: Pressures and impact analysis in the Dnipro river basin within Ukraine, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6493, 2021.

EGU21-12864 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Anthropogenic impact on behavior of nutrients and potentially toxic elements in the Moskva River water

Galina Shinkareva, Oxana Erina, Maria Tereshina, Dmitriy Sokolov, and Mikhail Lychagin

The Moskva River catchment is a complex system consisting of a network of rivers affected by a wide variety of land- and water-use factors that create unique spatial and temporal patterns of their water quality. Major sources of anthropogenic impact on the Moskva River and its tributaries include multiple flow regulation structures on streams, direct pollution from municipal sewage and industrial wastewaters of Moscow megacity and smaller towns, runoff generated in agricultural areas and within multiple landfills located on the watershed, and many more. Only a short upstream section of the Moskva River remains relatively unchanged in terms of water runoff and geochemistry.

In 2019, we began a pioneering study focusing on collecting detailed field data on geochemistry of water, suspended matter and bottom sediments of the Moskva River and its major tributaries, including concentrations of nutrients, potentially toxic elements (PTEs), polyaromatic hydrocarbons and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH). The main purpose of this project is to obtain a holistic picture of material fluxes within the river system combined with an inventory of natural and anthropogenic factors controlling them.

Our results indicate gradual increase of total dissolved solids, and content of nutrients and some PTEs (i.e., Cu) in water along the course of Moskva River. It can be linked to non-point pollution, as well as drastic changes occurring downstream Moscow and other urban areas caused by direct pollution. Massive increase of chloride, sulfate, sodium, mineral phosphorus, nitrogen, Mo and Sr concentrations in water is observed downstream outlets of Moscow wastewater treatment plants, which is characteristic of insufficiently treated urban sewage. Concentrations of nutrients and PTEs only slightly decrease downstream the city, remaining at levels often exceeding environmental guidelines up to the river’s mouth, whereas increased concentrations of other pollutants, such as TPH, are more closely limited to urban areas and fade more quickly with distance from the source.

Nutrient pollution of the Moskva River, as well as concentrations of some PTEs (i.e., Sb, Pb), steadily increased during summer low-flow period, when low dilution capacity limits biochemical self-purification. On the other hand, Mn, Co and Zn reached maximum concentrations during the spring flood due to their accumulation in city road dust and subsequent concentrated inflow with snowmelt runoff.

The Moskva River tributaries that flow within close proximity to the metropolitan area were revealed to have significantly higher pollution levels than the Moskva River itself, indicating stronger anthropogenic stress.

Balance calculations performed on our database showed that during the flood the Mozhaysk Reservoir – the single large reservoir on the Moskva River – retains huge volumes of major elements and PTE, at times even greater than their subsequent input from urban areas downstream from the dam. It proves crucial role of the reservoir’s retention capacity in the Moskva River’s geochemical balance formation.

Authors acknowledge Russian Geographical Society (project 28/2019-I), Russian Science Foundation (project 19-77-30004) and Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 19-05-50109) for financial support.

How to cite: Shinkareva, G., Erina, O., Tereshina, M., Sokolov, D., and Lychagin, M.: Anthropogenic impact on behavior of nutrients and potentially toxic elements in the Moskva River water, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12864, 2021.

EGU21-12233 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Comparison of the ecohydrological models AnnAGNPS and ZIN-AgriTra for a small agricultural catchment 

Johanna Schwenkel, Stephanie Zeunert, Huyen Le, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Matthias Schöniger, and Günter Meon

The ecohydrological models AnnAGNPS and ZIN-AgriTra are compared regarding their performance in a small watershed. Both models are presently applied for the transport simulation of plant protection products (PPP) from an agricultural area to a small stream to quantify the impact of reduction measures as part of a comprehensive study.

The spatial discretization of AnnAGNPS is based on hydrologic response units with homogeneous characteristics (land use, slope and soil type). For the continuous simulations daily time steps are used, only soil moisture is simulated using hourly time steps. The underlying equations are physically based, mostly simple calculation methods are used.
ZIN-AgriTra operates on grid cells, which allows a more accurate representation of the flow paths. The model is physically based, e. g. for the unsaturated soil zone the Richards equation is used. This requires detailed soil properties for its parameterization and leads to small computational time steps (minutes to hours) to fulfil the mass balance requirements. The detailed spatial and temporal scales, as well as the complex equations, result in a long computation time in comparison to AnnAGNPS.  
AnnAGNPS and ZIN-AgriTra are compared regarding their accuracy in the water balance and the mass balance simulation. For the mass balance different constituents as e. g. sediment, phosphorus and selected pesticides are simulated.

The study area is located in southern Lower Saxony, Germany. The catchment area has a size of 5 km2. The investigated stream (Lahbach) flows along agriculturally cultivated land. The relatively high slopes and the fine soil texture lead to a high fraction of generated discharge (as surface runoff, erosion and rapid interflow) from precipitation events. In the ongoing study the catchment was intensively monitored regarding meteorological and hydrological data. In addition, an event-based monitoring campaign was performed to quantify the reaction of the Lahbach during precipitation events, particularly the change in constituent concentrations. Due to the close cooperation with a local farmer, management measures are known very precisely.

The different temporal resolution of the input data and the time step of output parameters lead to differences in the agreement between measured and simulated time series among the two models. Overall, ZIN-AgriTra led to a more accurate reproduction of the rainfall-runoff events.

How to cite: Schwenkel, J., Zeunert, S., Le, H., Müller-Thomy, H., Schöniger, M., and Meon, G.: Comparison of the ecohydrological models AnnAGNPS and ZIN-AgriTra for a small agricultural catchment , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12233, 2021.

EGU21-15445 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Application of Sentinel-2A/B satellites to retrieve turbidity in the Guadalquivir estuary (Southern Spain)

Masuma Chowdhury, César Vilas, Stef VanBergeijk, Gabriel Navarro, Irene Laiz, and Isabel Caballero

Application of Sentinel-2A/B satellites to retrieve turbidity in the Guadalquivir estuary (Southern Spain)

Due to climate change, contamination, and diverse anthropogenic effects, water quality monitoring is intensifying its importance nowadays. Remote sensing techniques are becoming an important tool, in parallel with fieldwork, for supporting the cost-effective accomplishment of water quality mapping and management. In the recent years, Sentinel-2A/B twin satellites of the European Commission Earth Observation Copernicus programme emerged as a promising way to monitor complex coastal waters with higher spatial, spectral and temporal resolution. However, atmospheric and sunglint correction for the Sentinel-2 data over the coastal and inland waters is one of the major challenges in terms of accurate water quality retrieval. This study aimed at evaluating the ACOLITE atmospheric correction processor in order to develop a regional turbidity model for the Guadalquivir estuary (southern Spain) and its adjacent coastal region using Sentinel-2 imagery at a 10 m spatial resolution. Two settings for the atmospheric correction algorithm within the ACOLITE software were applied: the standard dark spectrum fitting (DSF) and the DSF with an additional option for sunglint correction. Turbidity field data were collected for calibration/validation purposes from the monthly Guadalquivir Estuary-LTER programme by Andalusian Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training (IFAPA) using a YSI-EXO2 multiparametric sonde for the period 2017-2020 at 2 fixed stations (Bonanza and Tarfia) sampling 4 different water masses along the estuary salinity gradient. Several regional models were evaluated using the red band (665 nm) and the red-edge bands (i.e. 704, 740, 783 nm) of the Sentinel-2 satellites. The results revealed that DSF with glint correction performs better than without glint correction, especially for this region where sunglint is a major concern during summer, affecting most of the satellite scenes. This study demonstrates the invaluable potential of the Sentinel-2A/B mission to monitor complex coastal waters even though they were not designed for aquatic remote sensing applications. This improved knowledge will be a helpful guideline and tool for the coastal managers, policy-makers, stakeholders and the scientific community for ensuring sustainable ecosystem-based coastal resource management under a global climate change scenario.

How to cite: Chowdhury, M., Vilas, C., VanBergeijk, S., Navarro, G., Laiz, I., and Caballero, I.: Application of Sentinel-2A/B satellites to retrieve turbidity in the Guadalquivir estuary (Southern Spain), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15445, 2021.

EGU21-15059 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Adaptive ML-Models for analysis of TSS, Chlorophyll-a, in mixed water type scenarios in Ca Mau peninsula, Vietnam

Long Vu Huu, Andreas Schenk, and Stefan Hinz

The multispectral mission of Sentinel-2 enables reliable, affordable and continuous environmental monitoring systems in fields like agriculture, biodiversity, environmental hazards and surface water. Several studies have proven that main water quality parameters like total suspended solids (TSS) and chlorophyll (Chl-a) can be estimated from multispectral data using different methods and algorithms. However, independently of the specific approach, these algorithms are selected and optimized to work primarily for one of the main water types i.e. open water, coastal water or inland water. This is also shown by the fact that there is not a single universal algorithm, which can be applied to all water types with consistent and reliable performance at the same time.

Ca Mau peninsula is a spacious area located in the southern part of the Mekong Delta, with an area of around 1.6 million hectares. This area has high growth rates of agricultural and aquaculture production, hence diverse water demands and water use types. In this study we use Sentinel-2 remote sensing data to monitor surface water quality using adaptive ML models to account for the different surface water types which occur in this area. Through using remote sensing data, we can provide a synoptic and sufficient view in spatial aspects about water quality parameters in the Ca Mau peninsula. Adapting the ML model will address the bio-optical model for a mixed water scenario.

The study is based on Sentinel-2 satellite images acquired in 2019 and 2020, supplemented by field data, i.e. hyperspectral measurements using close range observations, in-situ measurements and water samples, with the aim to collect a comprehensive reference data set as biophysical parameters are closely connected with spectral parameters at close range as well as at high spectral resolution. Therefore, surface hyperspectral measurement has been used to simulate Sentinel 2 multispectral image data at the respective bands.

We automatically assign the water type classes to observed surface water by integrating GIS data and remote sensing as the pre-processing step. For each class, the ML models are trained based on the experimental measurements with the multispectral and the simulated multispectral images on the respective water types. We devote special attention to water type boundaries to provide a smooth transition of estimated parameters.

The outputs of this model are surface water quality distribution maps with turbidity, TSS, and Chl-a parameters for all areas in Ca Mau peninsula, independent of the actual water type. Through the acceptable accuracy of model testing, the consolidation model will contribute water quality parameters that are crucial and meaningful to the planning and use of water for domestic use and production, besides, it also supports the decision-making of sustainable water use.

How to cite: Vu Huu, L., Schenk, A., and Hinz, S.: Adaptive ML-Models for analysis of TSS, Chlorophyll-a, in mixed water type scenarios in Ca Mau peninsula, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15059, 2021.

EGU21-10801 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1 | Highlight

Taking the pulse of Mother Ganga - Revealing the visible and invisible water pollution crisis along the Ganges River

Stefan Krause and the Team SAPTANADI

It is probably hard to overestimate the significance of the River Ganges for its spiritual, cultural and religious importance. As the worlds’ most populated river basin and a major water resource for the 400 million people inhabiting its catchment, the Ganges represents one of the most complex and stressed river systems globally. This makes the understanding and management of its water quality an act of humanitarian and geopolitical relevance. Water quality along the Ganges is critically impacted by multiple stressors, including agricultural, industrial and domestic pollution inputs, a lack and failure of water and sanitation infrastructure, increasing water demands in areas of intense population growth and migration, as well as the severe implications of land use and climate change. Some aspects of water pollution are readily visualised as the river network evolves, whilst others contribute to an invisible water crisis (Worldbank, 2019) that affects the life and health of hundreds of millions of people.

We report the findings of a large collaborative study to monitor the evolution of water pollution along the 2500 km length of the Ganges river and its major tributaries that was carried out over a six-week period in Nov/Dec 2019 by three teams of more than 30 international researchers from 10 institutions. Surface water and sediment were sampled from more than 80 locations along the river and analysed for organic contaminants, nutrients, metals, pathogen indicators, microbial activity and diversity as well as microplastics, integrating in-situ fluorescence and UV absorbance optical sensor technologies with laboratory sample preparation and analyses. Water and sediment samples were analysed to identify the co-existence of pollution hotspots, quantify their spatial footprint and identify potential source areas, dilution, connectivity and thus, derive understanding of the interactions between proximal and distal of sources solute and particulate pollutants.

Our results reveal the co-existence of distinct pollution hotspots for several contaminants that can be linked to population density and land use in the proximity of sampling sites as well as the contributing catchment area. While some pollution hotspots were characterised by increased concentrations of most contaminant groups, several hotspots of specific pollutants (e.g., microplastics) were identified that could be linked to specific cultural and religious activities. Interestingly, the downstream footprint of specific pollution hotspots from contamination sources along the main stem of the Ganges or through major tributaries varied between contaminants, with generally no significant downstream accumulation emerging in water pollution levels, bearing significant implications for the spatial reach and legacy of pollution hotspots. Furthermore, the comparison of the downstream evolution of multi-pollution profiles between surface water and sediment samples support interpretations of the role of in-stream fate and transport processes in comparison to patterns of pollution source zone activations across the channel. In reporting the development of this multi-dimensional pollution dataset, we intend to stimulate a discussion on the usefulness of large river network surveys to better understand the relative contributions, footprints and impacts of variable pollution sources and how this information can be used for integrated approaches in water resources and pollution management.

How to cite: Krause, S. and the Team SAPTANADI: Taking the pulse of Mother Ganga - Revealing the visible and invisible water pollution crisis along the Ganges River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10801, 2021.

EGU21-10642 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Water Quality across the River Ganga Basin in India: Trends, Dominant Geochemical Processes and Impacts

Laura A. Richards and the Team SAPTANADI

In a basin-wide survey of the River Ganga and key tributaries, from the Himalayan source to the Bay of Bengal in India, we aim to improve the conceptual understanding of downstream water quality trends along > 2000 km.  Here we explore the spatial distribution of a suite of inorganic and organic chemicals, nutrients and wastewater indicators to determine the dominant geochemical process controls across the basin.  Sampling was undertaken at 81 sites in the post-monsoon period of 2019.  We use chemical signatures to identify likely sources, characterise potential higher-pollution zones and to determine the relative importance of regional versus localized controls on the observed water quality parameters, including in relation to contaminant type.  The influence from key tributaries is determined.  We seek to unravel the relative importance of mechanisms such as dilution, evaporation, water-rock interactions and anthropogenic inputs in controlling contaminant distribution.  We assess the representativeness of river bank sampling in comparison to cross-river transects in select locations.  We compare our data to historical records across previous annual cycles, noting differences in extent of agreement according to contaminant type.  This coordinated, catchment-wide survey presents a much broader and more comprehensive dataset than typically reported, hence leading to substantially improved process understanding of dominant controls on contaminant distribution across the catchment.  This work may have implications on informing future monitoring efforts and in identifying future remediation priorities.

Acknowledgements This research was supported by the NERC-DST Indo-UK Water Quality Programme (NE/R003386/1 and DST/TM/INDO-UK/2K17/55(C) & 55(G) to DP et al; NE/R003106/1 and DST/TM/INDO-UK/2K17/30 to DR et al.), NE/R000131/1 to Jenkins et al. and a Dame Kathleen Ollerenshaw Fellowship (LR).

How to cite: Richards, L. A. and the Team SAPTANADI: Water Quality across the River Ganga Basin in India: Trends, Dominant Geochemical Processes and Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10642, 2021.

There is increasing interest in monitoring spatial variability in biogeochemical processes using field deployable sensors. Despite this, rigorous assessments of accuracy and optimal sensor configurations remain limited for such applications. We undertook a comprehensive field study, between November and December 2019 (post-monsoon), across diverse monitoring locations on the River Ganges and its tributaries in Northern India. At 81 sites, from the foothills of the Himalayas to the tidal limit at Kolkata, the following suite of routine sensor measurements were taken; dissolved oxygen (DO), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and turbidity. In addition “new” optical parameters were also measured; absorbance (190 – 360 nm) and tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF). Parallel water samples were collected for laboratory determination of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrogen species (NO3 and NH4), phosphorus fractions (SRP, TP, TDP), absorbance and fluorescence excitation emission matrices (EEMs). A series of predictive models for each laboratory derived nutrient parameter were developed based on partial least squares regression, lasso regression, and stepwise regression approaches. The predictive power of the best models (i.e. combination of sensors and model approach) were assessed using 10-fold cross validation. Residual patterns were inspected to help infer the environmental conditions under which in-situ sensors could be used reliably. The highest predictive power was apparent for NO3, DOC and SRP. This was apparent when considering models based on the routinely measured parameters (R2cv = 0.45 – 0.6; EC explained most variance) or when new optical parameters were included (R2cv = 0.6 - 0.8; absorbance <280 nm and TLF explained most variance).  No suitable surrogate model could be derived for ammonium (R2cv = 0.3) or TDP/TP (R2cv both <0.4). For DOC, changes in DOM composition from upstream – downstream influenced model fit while the nitrate model appeared robust with no spatial pattern in the residuals identified. These findings highlight clear potential for optical sensors to improve our understanding of spatial variability in nutrient concentrations and inform future development of multi-parameter sensing sondes for rapid assessment of nutrient concentration. Further research is required to assess the transferability of field calibrations across seasonal and inter-annual timescales.

How to cite: Khamis, K. and the Team SAPTANADI: Using in-situ sensors to quantify spatial variability in nutrient concentrations across the Ganges river basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11071, 2021.

High industrial discharge, excessive agricultural activities, untreated sewage disposal make the Kanpur region one of the most contaminated stretches of the Ganga river. This study analyses water quality for the combined future climate change and land use land cover scenarios for mid-century for a 238km long Kanpur stretch of Ganga river. Climate change projections from 21 General Circulation Models for the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are considered and Land use Land Cover (LULC) projections are made with QGIS software. Streamflow and water temperature are modelled using the HEC-HMS model and a Water-Air temperature regression model, respectively. Water quality analysis is simulated using the QUAL2K model in terms of nine water quality parameters, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, total phosphorus and faecal coliform. Climate change impact alone is projected to result in degraded water quality in the future. Combined climate change and LULC change may further degrade water quality, especially at the study area's critical locations. Our study will provide guidance to policymakers to safeguard the Ganga river from further pollution.

How to cite: Santy, S., Mujumdar, P., and Bala, G.: Combined impact of Climate change and Land use on water quality in the mid-21st century: A modelling study for a highly industrialized stretch of Ganga River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-795, 2021.

EGU21-8314 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

The interplay between hydrological flushing and biogeochemical cycling in a 3rd order stream

Magdalena Bieroza and Ann Louise Heathwaite

High-resolution water quality data obtained with in situ sensors and analysers coupled to flow discharge records can reveal critical information on hydrochemical and biogeochemical functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this study we explore a rich high-resolution hydrochemical dataset to synthesise the impact of hydrological flushing and biogeochemical cycling on water quality in a 3rd order groundwater-fed stream draining an agricultural catchment dominated by grassland.Our results show that despite large storm to storm diversity in hydrochemical responses, storm event magnitude and timing have a critical role in controlling the type of mobilisation, flushing and cycling behaviour. These results can be used to evaluate pollution risks in streams and their effects on freshwater quality.

How to cite: Bieroza, M. and Heathwaite, A. L.: The interplay between hydrological flushing and biogeochemical cycling in a 3rd order stream, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8314, 2021.

EGU21-13254 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Analysis of water quality time series for improving the measurement strategy in the Brantas basin, Indonesia

Tijmen Willard, Reza Pramana, Saket Pande, Boris van Breukelen, and Maurits Ertsen

Water quality in the rivers and tributaries of the Brantas catchment (about 12.000 km2; East Java, Indonesia), which is deteriorating due to various reasons, is measured by different agencies involved in water resource development and management. We discuss how different time series of water quality data from three local agencies in the Brantas basin (differing in specific parameters and measurement frequency) have been used to provide recommendations on the improvement of (using) the different measurement strategies (in policy recommendations). In general, monthly to quarterly data were available from 2009 until 2019 at 104 locations. Data were analyzed with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to show which parameters vary significantly across the catchment. Preliminary results suggested how parameters were related, based on series of box plots of the PCA scores. This provided insights on the first order processes that control the physical-chemical status of the Brantas River, of each agency and for all the data sets combined. Applying Python and QGIS to separate the parameters and map the hot spots in terms of eigen functions allowed relating water levels with hot spots to estimate the fluctuations in the concentrations of different parameters in time and space. These data elaborations allow improving the different measurement campaigns, and to address specific policy questions related to water quality monitoring more efficiently.

How to cite: Willard, T., Pramana, R., Pande, S., van Breukelen, B., and Ertsen, M.: Analysis of water quality time series for improving the measurement strategy in the Brantas basin, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13254, 2021.

EGU21-5210 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Use of co-created causal loop diagrams and fuzzy-cognitive scenario analysis for water quality management

Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, Zahra Kalantari, and Georgia Destouni

Current understanding is fragmented of the environmental, economic, and social processes involved in water quality issues. The fragmentation is particularly evident for coastal water quality, impacted both by local land catchment and larger-scale marine pressures and impacts. Research and policy so far has primarily addressed coastal water quality issues from either a land-based or a sea-based perspective, which does not support integrated management of the coupled land-coast-sea systems affecting coastal waters. For example, mitigation measures for improving the severe Baltic Sea eutrophication have mostly focused on land-based drivers, and not yet managed to sufficiently improve coastal or marine water quality. The strong human dimension involved in these water quality issues also highlights a need for participatory approaches to facilitate knowledge integration and drive synergistic strategic planning for sustainable management of coastal water quality. Considering the Swedish water management district of Northern Baltic Proper, including its main Norrström drainage basin and surrounding coastal catchment areas and waters, this study has used a participatory approach to evaluate various land-sea water quality interactions and associated management measures. A causal loop diagram has been co-created with different stakeholder groups, following a problem-oriented system thinking approach. This has been further used in fuzzy-cognitive scenario analysis to assess integrated land-coast-sea system behavior under changing human pressures and hydro-climatic conditions. Results show that synergy of several catchment measures is needed to improve coastal water quality locally, while cross-system/sector cooperation is also needed among all contributing national catchments to mitigate coastal eutrophication at the scale of the whole Baltic Sea. Furthermore, large-scale hydro-climatic changes and long-lived nutrient legacy sources also need to be accounted for in water quality management strategies and measures. System dynamics modelling, based on co-created causal loop diagrams and fuzzy-cognitive scenario analysis like those developed in this study, can support further quantification and analysis of the impacts of various mitigation strategies and measures on regional water quality problems and their possible sustainable solutions.

How to cite: Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S., Kalantari, Z., and Destouni, G.: Use of co-created causal loop diagrams and fuzzy-cognitive scenario analysis for water quality management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5210, 2021.

EGU21-2977 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

The magnitude of pollution supply in small urban catchment (Różany Stream) in Poznan, Poland

Maciej Major, Maria Chudzińska, Mikołaj Majewski, and Małgorzata Stefaniak

The recognition of natural environment current functioning is possible throughout the determination of the energy and material balance (mainly water and dissolved substances) in various catchments. Dissolved matter circulation in the river catchment reflects natural hydrometeorological and hydrochemical processes as well as anthropogenic activity, which appears primarily as the supply of pollutants.

The research was conducted in 4 hydrological years (2016-2019) within the borders of a small urban catchment in the northern part of the city of Poznań (Poland), the main watercourse of which is the Różany Stream (Różany Strumień). The natural environment of the Różany Stream catchment is characterized by significant transformations due to human activity. The most important environmental problems include threats related to the pollution of surface waters and groundwater as a result of processes related to the functioning of an urban catchment.

The main aim of this work is to present the magnitude of pollution supply into the catchment and to determine the temporal variability of matter circulation in a small urban catchment in years with different pluvial conditions and therefore quantitatively changing atmospheric supply reaching the geoecosystem.

The magnitude of pollution supply to the catchment was determined on the basis of systematic, comprehensive measurements of the natural environment. The measurement system and the field research methodology refer to the methodological concept of the system functioning, as well as the assumptions of the European International Cooperative Programme on Integrated Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Ecosystems (ICP IM) and Integrated Monitoring of the Natural Environment in Poland (ZMSP) programs.

This work presents the results of measurements of several components of the natural environment, initially including meteorological conditions (mainly precipitation and air temperature). The next elements of the research concerned air pollution with sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide as well as the chemical composition of precipitation, which is considered as an entry into the geoecosystem. Moreover, there are also presented the results of the physicochemical properties of surface waters (including levels, flows and chemical composition) and groundwater.

The quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the atmospheric supply to the geoecosystem, the water cycle in the catchment and the water runoff confirm the assumptions that the dissolved matter circulation is one of the most important indicators of changes in the natural environment in the moderate morphoclimatic zone.

How to cite: Major, M., Chudzińska, M., Majewski, M., and Stefaniak, M.: The magnitude of pollution supply in small urban catchment (Różany Stream) in Poznan, Poland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2977, 2021.

EGU21-12109 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

In-situ techniques for monitoring drinking water quality

Inge Elfferich, Elizabeth Bagshaw, Rupert Perkins, Peter Kille, Sophie Straiton, Elena von Benzon, and Annalise Sara Hooper

Efficient management of drinking water quality is critical for the water supply, so effective monitoring of supply and storage systems is a priority. This project aims to predict the presence of Taste and Odour (T&O) compounds in drinking water reservoirs, using molecular analyses and smart in-situ monitoring systems. The most common T&O compounds, Geosmin and 2-MIB, are secondary metabolites that can be produced in waterbodies by cyanobacteria and actinomycetes and impact drinking water taste and odour. Although there is no evidence of related health risks, they can be perceived by humans at very low concentrations (5-10 ng/L) and the treatment process to remove them from drinking water is costly. Early assessment of T&O risk is crucial, but currently requires time-consuming and costly sampling as well as laboratory analysis which prevents real-time monitoring and a timely management response.

Cyanobacterial species responsible for T&O production can be monitored with eDNA techniques and potentially provide an early warning of T&O episodes. Moreover, detection of the genes that are responsible for T&O production within the DNA of the freshwater community can help to speed up analysis. We show that qPCR methods can target the Geosmin synthase gene (geoA) and that this correlates significantly with Geosmin concentrations >15 ng/L. Alternatively, in-situ sensors that can be deployed remotely and transmit data, can provide real-time monitoring for early warning and potentially predictive capacity. Commercially available sensors do not currently exist for T&O compounds, but they do for many other water quality parameters. We consider the analytes that could be effective for T&O warning systems, using a Welsh reservoir as an exemplar case. Assessment of nutrient dynamics suggests N and P ratios are critical, hence we evaluate the sensors that are available for these compounds and associated environmental controls on their behaviour. We present recommendations for the design of an in-situ monitoring programme and introduce the planned tests that will evaluate it.

How to cite: Elfferich, I., Bagshaw, E., Perkins, R., Kille, P., Straiton, S., von Benzon, E., and Hooper, A. S.: In-situ techniques for monitoring drinking water quality, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12109, 2021.

EGU21-6370 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

A fuzzy logic approach for the prediction of sapid compounds concentration in a water supply system under climate change

Alberto Garcia-Prats, Ferran Llario, Hector Macian-Sorribes, Adria Rubio-Martin, Javier Macian-Cervera, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on water resource systems, affecting both water quantity and quality. Among other probable impacts on raw water, the increase of sapid compounds such as geosmin and MIB (2-methylisoborneol) is one of the most challenging for urban water supply, as it alters both water taste and odour. Water managers and water utility companies need to anticipate events that increase the concentration of sapid compounds. Proper methods and tools are necessary to design adaptation strategies for future drinking water supply. In this research we analyse the drivers of MIB and geosmin growth, and study the consequence that an increasing occurrence and intensity of sapid compounds events will have on the required water treatments. The research has been developed for a Mediterranean reservoir used for water supply to the city of Valencia, the 3rd largest city in Spain.

 

The methodology applies a chain of models that integrates water quantity and quality processes in the same modelling framework. The modelling framework includes climate models, hydrological and water resource management models at the basin scale, and a reservoir management and quality models. Key environmental variables were selected using statistical analysis and expert criteria.  Fuzzy logic systems were then applied to predict MIB and geosmin concentration under different time periods and climate change scenarios. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two-time horizons (short term 2020-2040, and mid term 2041-2070) were considered.

 

Results show a significant increase of MIB and geosmin under climate change, especially during spring and summer. Concentrations of MIB would steadily rise until they double, reaching peaks of up to 0.50 µg/l by 2070 for all scenarios, while the World Health Organization maximum safe concentration is 0.01 µg/l. Geosmin concentrations also increase in all scenarios, reaching 0.05 µg/l by 2070. The microbiological data shows that benthic cyanobacteria Aphanocapsa delicatissima could be associated with MIB. Decreasing water storage, higher nitrate concentrations, and higher temperatures would stimulate MIB production, favoured by a likely increased of light penetration and resuspension of cyanobacteria present in the benthos of the reservoir. These environmental conditions appear mainly during drought events and force water treatment plants to change their processes to face the higher concentration of sapid compounds in raw water.

 

Acknowledgements

This study has been supported by the European Research Area for Climate Services programme (ER4CS) under the INNOVA project (Grant Agreement 690462) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (PCIN-2017-066), and by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain and with EU FEDER funds.

How to cite: Garcia-Prats, A., Llario, F., Macian-Sorribes, H., Rubio-Martin, A., Macian-Cervera, J., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: A fuzzy logic approach for the prediction of sapid compounds concentration in a water supply system under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6370, 2021.

EGU21-6986 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Application of Dissolved Organic Carbon Runoff Model Considering Soil Infiltration and River Runoff Processes in Multiple Forested Watersheds

Kazunori Ebata, Yutaka Ichikawa, Hiroshi Ishidaira, Yoshitaka Matsumoto, and Kei Nishida

Estimation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff load in forested watershed is important for the assessment of the global carbon cycle as well as for the control of regional water environments. A few process-based models have been proposed to estimate the DOC load to water environments, which assume DOC source in topsoil and transport processes to the river, however, these models exhibited difficulties with the availability of input data and applicability to short time-scale rainfall-runoff processes in the Asian monsoon area. This study presents a new process-based model that consists of two separate systems for determining DOC load enforced by DOC Source Area (DSA) concept. For the runoff system, a semi-distributed hydrological modelling unit (‘modified-TOPMODEL’) was installed, by which surface and subsurface water flows, representing for DSA, were sequentially simulated. For the soil system, a wet-dry cycle was successfully simulated by an advection-diffusion and dissolution formulation as well as seasonal temperature effect. The model is first evaluated upstream (98ha) and downstream (1798ha) in the Mizugaki Watershed, Yamanashi, Japan and then applied for a Miuchi (203ha) watershed, Aichi, Japan during 2014 to 2018. The results of cumulative DOC load at baseflow and stormflow periods that the model performed well between the simulations and observations for both study sites. Considering the stormflow periods, from 25.2% to 32.0%, and 31.1% of high flows contributed to 50% of the total DOC load at Mizugaki and Miuchi watershed, respectively. Overall, the proposed model successfully simulated DOC load under different geochemical and hydrological condition by capturing the DSA variability.

How to cite: Ebata, K., Ichikawa, Y., Ishidaira, H., Matsumoto, Y., and Nishida, K.: Application of Dissolved Organic Carbon Runoff Model Considering Soil Infiltration and River Runoff Processes in Multiple Forested Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6986, 2021.

EGU21-13875 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

In-situ UV-Visible spectrometry as an alternative to determine solute concentrations at high temporal frequency in organic-rich stream waters

Juan Pesántez, Christian Birkel, Giovanny Mosquera, Pablo Peña, Viviana Arizaga, Emma Mora, William McDowell, and Patricio Crespo

In-situ monitoring of the temporal variation of solutes’ (nutrients and metals) concentrations as tracers can enhance knowledge of the hydrological and biogeochemical behavior of catchments. UV-Visible spectrometry represents a relatively inexpensive and easily used tool to explore how those concentrations vary in time at high temporal frequency. However, it is not yet clear which are the best calibration methods and which solutes can be modeled with this approach. In this investigation we explored the relationship between solutes’ concentrations and wavelength absorbance in the UV-Visible range to find the best calibration method and to identify solutes that could be effectively predicted. To this end, we installed a UV–Visible spectrometer probe in a high-altitude and organic-rich tropical Andean (Páramo) stream to record the wavelength absorbance at a 5-min temporal resolution from December 2017 to March 2019. Simultaneously, we sampled stream water at 4-hour frequency for subsequent determination of solutes via ICP-MS in the laboratory. Our results show that multivariate statistical methods outperformed simpler calibration strategies to model the solutes’ concentrations that could be effectively predicted using calibration and validation datasets. Eleven out of 21 evaluated solutes (Al, DOC, Ca, Cu, K, Mg, N, Na, Rb, Si and Sr) were successfully calibrated (NSE > 0.50). This finding suggests the possibility of calibrating solutes (i.e., metals) that had not previously been calibrated through UV-Visible spectrometry in the field. Interestingly, the calibration was feasible for all solutes that presented a statistically significant correlation with dissolved organic carbon. The findings of this research provide insights into the value of in-situ operation of spectrometers to monitor water quality in organic-rich streams (e.g., peatlands). This research contributes to our understanding of aquatic ecosystems alongside assessing catchment hydrological functioning and also can enhance the protection of human water supplies.

How to cite: Pesántez, J., Birkel, C., Mosquera, G., Peña, P., Arizaga, V., Mora, E., McDowell, W., and Crespo, P.: In-situ UV-Visible spectrometry as an alternative to determine solute concentrations at high temporal frequency in organic-rich stream waters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13875, 2021.

EGU21-15282 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Evolution of chemical weathering processes and CO2 sequestration in the glaciated basins of Western Himalayas

Kalyan biswal, Naveen kumar, Mohd soheb, and Ramanathan al

Understanding of chemical weathering process involved in ionic elution helps in distinguishing the CO2 sequestration rate at the different micro-climatic setup of Himalayan catchments. In the present study, we have selected three glaciated basins from two different climatic zones of Western Himalayas (Lato and Phutse from the cold-arid zone of Ladakh and Chhota Shigri from the monsoon-arid zone of Himachal Pradesh, India) for determining various solute sources, CO2 sequestration rate and its control over melt-water quality. Solute sourcing models used in this work shows major cations like Ca2+  and Mg2+ are from crustal rock-weathering while Na+ and K+ sourced out from the sea-salt origin. However, major anions like SO42- (> 85%) were derived from the crustal origin and HCO3- mostly derived from atmospheric sources (39% to 45 %) in all catchments except HCO3- contribution from carbonation dissolution and silicate weathering is ~29% and ~16% for Ladakh catchments compared to ~9 % and ~29% in Chhota Shigri respectively. The solute model also reveals that the contribution of sulphate oxidative mediated carbonate dissolution (SOCD) in HCO3- flux is relatively higher in Chhota Shigri (~16%) than others (~9%). It is also observed that catchment like Chhota Shigri having a combined network of channelized and distributed drainage patterns with lower specific discharge, more glacierized area, low pH, high pCO2, Low molar ratio [Ca2+ + Mg2+]/[ Na+ + K+], high SMF (~ 0.4), low CO2 carbonate/CO2 silicate ratio (~1.3) show relatively more sulphide oxidative and silicate weathered products than other catchments. Conversely, presence of excess non-glaciated areas in Stok and Phutse having well-channelized subsurface discharge with high CO2 carbonate/CO2 silicate ratio (~10 to ~5) show enhanced carbonation via atmospheric CO2 (CAC) and carbonate dissolution with high annual CO2 sequestration. Thus, varying subglacial drainage system, specific discharge pattern and reactive rock-types with distinct hydro-micro-climatic set up alters the chemical weathering mechanism in these catchments and control meltwater quality.

How to cite: biswal, K., kumar, N., soheb, M., and al, R.: Evolution of chemical weathering processes and CO2 sequestration in the glaciated basins of Western Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15282, 2021.

EGU21-13995 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Geochemical characteristics and water pollution by Potentially Toxic Elements at the Varatec creek, Baiut mining area, Romania.

Diego Santanna, Ampurire Aryampa, Gyozo Jordan, Damian Gheorghe, and Csaba Szabo

This study provides an identification and evaluation of the Potentially Toxic Element (PTE) (Co, Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, and Ni) sources, speciation, mobility, distribution patterns, enrichment, and relationships along the Varatic Creek and its tributaries in the Baiut Mining Area, Romania. ICP-OES trace element concentrations were measured in collected samples. The geochemical characterization of the Varatec Creek revealed that the water contains high dissolved metals, high sulfate concentrations, and low pH values, dominated by Ca+2 and SO₄2- cation and anion in streamwater.

The calculated median concentrations were much higher than  the average surface water concentrations in Europe (FOREGS) and decreased in the order of Zn(126.2μg.l-1)>>Cu(3.4μg.l-1)>Ni(1.6μg.l-1)=Cd(1.6μg.l-1)>Co(0.5μg.l-1)>Pb(0.3μg.l-1). The relative variability (MAD/median) follow the order Cd(90%)>Co(80%)=Zn(80%)>Cu(60%)=Ni(60%)>Pb(50%). The regional enrichment factor calculated as the Median/FOREGS(European level) follow the order Cd(156)>>Zn(47)>>Cu(3.8)>Pb(3)=Co(3)>Ni(0.9).

Element distribution, geochemical behavior and source, aqueous speciation modeling, and correlation analysis were performed to estimate the metal sorption to Fe-oxyhydroxide, Mn-oxyhydroxide, and sulfates. Detailed data analysis, reaction modelling and geochemical interpretation revealed two distinct groups of PTEs in the studied mining-impacted streamwater: Ni and Co seem to be associated with the geochemical background, while Cd, Pb, Zn, and Cu are originating from mining activities.

How to cite: Santanna, D., Aryampa, A., Jordan, G., Gheorghe, D., and Szabo, C.: Geochemical characteristics and water pollution by Potentially Toxic Elements at the Varatec creek, Baiut mining area, Romania., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13995, 2021.

EGU21-14358 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.1

Physicochemical processes in the main river of Mexico using geochemical models

Selene Olea-Olea, Javier Alcocer, and Luis A. Oseguera

The Usumacinta River is the most extensive tropical fluvial system in North America and the principal river in Mexico and the tenth of North America. Diverse and growing anthropogenic activities (land-use change, agriculture, and urban development) modify water quality. However, to separate natural (e.g., geology) from anthropic factors responsible for this system characteristics, we looked to evaluate geological environment’s influence on the river’s water quality.

Water and sediment samples were collected along the mainstem and principal tributaries in the rainy and the dry seasons (2017-2018). We analyzed the major ionic composition in water and metals in sediments. We applied inverse and evaporation models (PHREEQC code) to reveal the physicochemical reactions taking place in the river.

The inverse models in the middle basin in both seasons showed the influence of ion-exchange between Ca and K, dissolution of dolomite, and precipitation of kaolinite and calcite, whereas in the lower basin in the rainy season suggested the chemical composition is controlled by ion-exchange among Ca, Na and K, dissolution of dolomite, halite, plagioclase, and feldspar and precipitation of calcite, gypsum, and kaolinite. In addition, the evaporation models in the dry season in the lower basin demonstrate the dominant process taking place is the precipitation of calcite, dolomite, gypsum, halite, and kaolinite.

We found that Cr and Ni are the most abundant metals in the sediments along the river. The geological environment in the basin suggests that the volcanic rocks with felsic minerals could be the source of Ni, whereas sedimentary rocks such as shales and clays could be the source of Cr.

The use of geochemical models in river systems is of great relevance to understanding the presence of major ions concentrations in water and their seasonal and spatial variations, as well the physicochemical processes (i.e., ion-exchange, dissolution, precipitation, redox reactions, and so on) that allow associating or discard the presence of metals.

How to cite: Olea-Olea, S., Alcocer, J., and Oseguera, L. A.: Physicochemical processes in the main river of Mexico using geochemical models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14358, 2021.

HS2.3.2 – Data-driven analysis of water quality to understand solute and particulate export mechanisms in catchments

EGU21-595 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Estimating river water-quality trends under different flow conditions

Qian Zhang, James Webber, Douglas Moyer, and Jeffrey Chanat

A number of statistical approaches have been developed to quantify the overall trend in river water quality, but most approaches are not intended for reporting separate trends for different flow conditions. We propose an approach called FN2Q, which is an extension of the flow-normalization (FN) procedure of the well-established WRTDS (“Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season”) method. The FN2Q approach provides a daily time series of low-flow and high-flow FN flux estimates that represent the lower and upper half of daily riverflow observations that occurred on each calendar day across the period of record. These daily estimates can be summarized into any time period of interest (e.g., monthly, seasonal, or annual) for quantifying trends. The proposed approach is illustrated with an application to a record of total nitrogen concentration (632 samples) collected between 1985 and 2018 from the South Fork Shenandoah River at Front Royal, Virginia (USA). Results show that the overall FN flux of total nitrogen has declined in the period of 1985–2018, which is mainly attributable to FN flux decline in the low-flow class. Furthermore, the decline in the low-flow class was highly correlated with wastewater effluent loads, indicating that the upgrades of treatment technology at wastewater treatment facilities have likely led to water-quality improvement under low-flow conditions. The high-flow FN flux showed a spike around 2007, which was likely caused by increased delivery of particulate nitrogen associated with sediment transport. The case study demonstrates the utility of the FN2Q approach toward not only characterizing the changes in river water quality but also guiding the direction of additional analysis for capturing the underlying drivers. The FN2Q approach (and the published code) can easily be applied to widely available river monitoring records to quantify water-quality trends under different flow conditions to enhance understanding of river water-quality dynamics. (Journal article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143562; R code and data release: https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LBJEY1).

How to cite: Zhang, Q., Webber, J., Moyer, D., and Chanat, J.: Estimating river water-quality trends under different flow conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-595, 2021.

EGU21-4394 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Effects of streamflow regime on the concentration-flow (CQ) relationships across climate zones: a study across the Australian continent

Clément Duvert, Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Rémi Dupas, Anna Lintern, Shuci Liu, and Kefeng Zhang

Understanding the spatial and temporal variation of concentration-flow (CQ) relationships is valuable to enhance understanding of the key processes that drive changes in catchment water quality. This study used a data-driven approach to understand how the CQ relationship is influenced by catchment flow regimes (baseflow versus runoff dominated) throughout the Australian continent. To summarize the CQ relationship, we focus on the b exponent in a power-law relationship (C=aQb). We considered six commonly monitored constituents, namely, electrical conductivity (EC), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total suspended solids (TSS), nitrate–nitrite (NOx) and total nitrogen (TN), at a total of 251 catchments in Australia. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to assess a) the impacts of flow regime on CQ relationships, both across catchments (spatial variation) and within individual catchments (temporal variation); and b) how these impacts vary across five typical Australian climate zones – arid, Mediterranean, temperate, sub-tropical and tropical.

We found that for individual constituents: 1) spatial variations in CQ relationships are clearly influenced by the catchment-level baseflow contribution, and these influences differ with climate regions; 2) across climate zones, runoff-dominated catchments (i.e. with low baseflow contribution) have relatively stable CQ relationships, while groundwater-dominated catchments (i.e. with high baseflow contribution) have highly variable CQ patterns across climate zones; 3) within individual catchments, the variations in instantaneous baseflow contribution have no systematic and consistent effect on the CQ relationships. The influence of catchment baseflow contribution on CQ relationships has potential to be used to predict catchment water quality across Australia, with over half the total variability in concentration of sediment, salt and phosphorus species explained by variations in catchment-level baseflow contribution.

How to cite: Duvert, C., Guo, D., Minaudo, C., Dupas, R., Lintern, A., Liu, S., and Zhang, K.: Effects of streamflow regime on the concentration-flow (CQ) relationships across climate zones: a study across the Australian continent, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4394, 2021.

EGU21-7867 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Coupling C-Q and Lorenz Inequality Analyses to Create a Temporal Targeting Framework for Watershed-Scale Decision-Making

Heather Preisendanz, Tamie Veith, Qian Zhang, Julia Biertempfel, and James Shortle

Degradation of aquatic ecosystem health due to the presence of excess nutrients and sediments is a long-standing, leading global environmental concern. Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships have been used to disentangle the hydrologic and biogeochemical drivers affecting the transport dynamics of nutrients, sediments, and other constituents of interest. However, C-Q relationships alone are insufficient to provide actionable information to watershed managers and decision-makers. Rather, a comprehensive understanding of the degree of inequality of pollutant transport over time and space is necessary so that appropriate best management practices can be implemented in the “right place” that is effective at reducing targeted pollutants at the “right time”. Such spatial and temporal targeting requires a uniform metric for identifying “hot spots” and “hot moments”. Nutrient and sediment transport are known to exhibit strong spatial and temporal inequality, with a small percentage of locations and events contributing to the vast majority of total annual loads. The processes for determining how to reduce total annual loads at a watershed scale often target spatial, but not temporal, components of inequality, such that “hot moments” are far less understood than “hot spots”. Here, we introduce a framework using Lorenz Inequality and the corresponding Gini Coefficient to quantify the temporal inequality of nutrient and sediment transport across the Chesapeake Bay watershed and couple the inequality analysis with C-Q analysis to disentangle the relative role of hydrologic versus biogeochemical controls on nutrient cycling and transport and categorize nutrient transport across a response gradient. This framework allows for interpretation of the physical factors that influence the extent to which hydrologic and biogeochemical drivers are attenuated or exacerbated, such that a catchment’s ability or lack thereof to buffer highly variable hydrologic and biogeochemical signals can be quantified and understood through the proposed framework.

Data were obtained for 108 sites in the Chesapeake Bay’s Non-Tidal Network from 2010 through 2018. The Lorenz Inequality and Gini Coefficient analyses were conducted using daily-scale data for flow and loads of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) at each gauging station. We leverage these results to create a “temporal targeting framework” that identifies periods of time and corresponding flow conditions that must be targeted to achieve desired or mandated load reduction goals across the watershed. Among the 108 sites, the degree of temporal inequality for TP and TSS (0.37 – 0.98) was much greater than for flow and TN (0.29 – 0.77), likely due to the importance of overland versus baseflow in the transport pathways of the respective constituents. These findings stress the importance of informed design and implementation of best management practices effective in “hot moments,” and not just “hot spots,” across impaired watersheds to achieve and maintain water quality restoration goals. The “temporal targeting framework” provides a useful and convenient method for watershed planners to create low- and high-flow load targeting tables specific to a watershed and constituent.

How to cite: Preisendanz, H., Veith, T., Zhang, Q., Biertempfel, J., and Shortle, J.: Coupling C-Q and Lorenz Inequality Analyses to Create a Temporal Targeting Framework for Watershed-Scale Decision-Making, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7867, 2021.

EGU21-1348 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

High-frequency river chemistry unveils the inner workings of concentration-discharge relationships during flood events

Paul Floury, Julien Bouchez, Jérôme Gaillardet, Arnaud Blanchouin, and Patrick Ansart

Shifts in water fluxes through the Critical Zone exert a major control on stream solute export, but the exact nature of this control is still obscure, especially at the scale of relatively short flood events. To address this question, here we take advantage of a new high-frequency, flood event stream concentration–discharge (C-Q) dataset. Stream dissolved concentration of major species were recorded every 40 minutes over five major flood events in 2015/2016 recorded in a French agricultural watershed using device called the "River Lab". We focus our attention on the flood recession periods to highlight how C-Q relationships are controlled by hydrological processes within the catchment rather than by the dynamics of the rain event.

We show that for C-Q relationships resulting from data acquisition over multi-year time scales and including several flood events, lumping all trends together potentially result in biases in characteristic parameters (such as exponents of a power-law fit), that are strongly dictated by data from the recession periods of the most intense floods alone.

In order to evaluate the role of mixing of pre-existing water and solute pools in the catchment, we apply to solute fluxes an approach previously developed in catchment hydrology linking water storage and stream flow. This approach, which considers that hydrological processes prevail over chemical interactions during the short time spans of flood events, allows us to reproduce at first order a large diversity of shapes of recession C-Q relationships.

How to cite: Floury, P., Bouchez, J., Gaillardet, J., Blanchouin, A., and Ansart, P.: High-frequency river chemistry unveils the inner workings of concentration-discharge relationships during flood events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1348, 2021.

We propose a data-driven approach of concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationship analysis, including a new classification of C-Q hysteresis loop at the catchment scale, combined to a simulation of lateral Q and C at the reach scale. We analyse high-frequency, multiple-site records of Q and electrical conductivity (EC) in karst catchment outlets, in which EC informs on water residence time. At the catchment scale, contributions of pre-event water (PEW) and event water (EW) during storm events are investigated through hysteresis loops analysis, which allows inferring hydrological processes. Our new classification of hysteresis loops is based on loop mean slope and hysteresis index. At the reach scale, lateral Q and EC are simulated using a diffusive wave equation model, providing a more spatialized picture of PEW and EW contributions to streamflow during storm events. The methodology is applied to two catchments (Loue river and Cèze river) in France, including 8 gauging stations with hourly Q and EC time series covering 66 storm events.

For both catchments, a conceptual model of water origin and hydrological-processes seasonal and spatial variability is drawn. Regarding Loue catchment, summer and fall storm-events are characterized by contribution of PEW through piston-type flows, whereas decreasing EC values in winter and spring storm-events indicate the major contribution of EW through surface runoff and following fast infiltration in karst. EW contribution is increasing towards downstream. Regarding Cèze catchment, higher contributions of EW are observed, indicating that fast infiltration and surface runoff are the dominant processes, associated to a PEW signature in summer and fall. PEW contribution also increases in karstified areas. Intra-site water origin seasonality is mostly related to karst aquifer saturation state, whereas inter-site variability is linked to karst areas extension. These results are encouraging to extend this approach to a variety of sites, notably influenced by important surface water/groundwater interactions, and groundwater flooding.

How to cite: Le Mesnil, M., Charlier, J.-B., Moussa, R., and Caballero, Y.: Combining  concentration-discharge hysteresis and reach-scale lateral flow modelling to characterize flood water origin and processes: application to karst catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14832, 2021.

EGU21-15045 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

How do concentration-discharge relations vary among rainfall-runoff events? An analysis for the Ressi experimental catchment (Italian pre-Alps)

Giulia Zuecco, Chiara Marchina, Ylenia Gelmini, Anam Amin, Ilja van Meerveld, Daniele Penna, and Marco Borga

Understanding discharge and solute responses is pivotal for water resources management and pollution mitigation measures. The few studies that have analysed concentration-discharge relations using high temporal resolution tracer data collected during rainfall-runoff events have shown that these relations may vary for different events and depend on season, event characteristics or antecedent wetness conditions. 

In this study, we used hydrometric and tracer data (stable isotopes, major ions and electrical conductivity (EC)) to i) compare the concentration-discharge relations for different tracers, ii) characterize the hysteretic relations between discharge and tracer concentrations at the event timescale, and iii) determine whether the changes in hysteresis can be explained by event characteristics.

Data collection was carried out in the Ressi catchment, a 2-ha forested watershed in the Italian pre-Alps. The catchment is characterized by high seasonality in runoff response, due to the seasonality in rainfall (high in fall) and evapotranspiration (high in summer). Discharge and rainfall have been measured continuously since August 2012. Stream water, precipitation, shallow groundwater and soil water samples were collected for tracer analyses during 20 rainfall-runoff events between September 2015 and August 2018. All samples were analyzed for EC, isotopic composition (2H and 18O) and major ion concentrations. To investigate the possible controls on concentration-discharge relations, we determined the main characteristics (e.g., total event rainfall, rainfall intensities, antecedent soil moisture and depth to water table, runoff coefficient) for each selected rainfall-runoff event.

The EC, calcium, magnesium, sodium and sulfate concentrations in stream water decreased during rainfall events, due to the dilution by rain water. The concentration-discharge relations for these tracers with a dilution behavior were stronger and more significant than for the tracers that were mobilized during the event. Interestingly, nitrate, potassium and chloride, concentrations sometimes increased at the onset of events, likely due to a rapid flushing of solutes from the dry parts of the stream channel and the riparian area, and then decreased during the event. These temporal dynamics in solute concentrations resulted in different hysteretic relations with discharge. Clockwise loops (i.e., discharge peaked later than the tracer concentrations) were common for the isotopes, chloride and potassium, whereas anti-clockwise hysteresis loops were more typical for EC, magnesium, calcium, sulfate, sodium and nitrate. A preliminary correlation analysis suggests that event characteristics alone cannot explain the changes in hysteresis, except for the hysteresis area for the relations between discharge and calcium concentration that depends on the magnitude of the rainfall event (i.e., the larger the rainfall amount and the runoff coefficient, the smaller the hysteresis loop). 

These results highlight the importance of the first flush and indicate that runoff processes and solute sources can change when the catchment becomes wetter and connectivity of the hillslopes to the stream increases.

 

Keywords: concentration-discharge relation; major ions; electrical conductivity; stable isotopes; hysteresis; forested catchment.

How to cite: Zuecco, G., Marchina, C., Gelmini, Y., Amin, A., van Meerveld, I., Penna, D., and Borga, M.: How do concentration-discharge relations vary among rainfall-runoff events? An analysis for the Ressi experimental catchment (Italian pre-Alps), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15045, 2021.

EGU21-10962 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Using hillslope-scale groundwater model to bridge the gap between basin inputs and river concentrations. The case of nitrates in Brittany (France).

Luca Guillaumot, Luc Aquilina, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Jean Marçais, and Patrick Durand

Over the past decades, intensive agriculture has altered surface water and groundwater resources quality. Nutrient surplus increased nitrate concentrations in groundwater and rivers resulting in eutrophication or drinking water risk having ecosystem, sanitary and economic repercussions. Legislations led to a reduction of agricultural inputs of nitrogen since 1990’s followed by a decrease of nitrate concentrations in rivers, but still difficult to predict and evaluate. Indeed, the incomplete knowledge of the spatial variability of climate and nitrogen inputs, cumulated to the unknown groundwater heterogeneity,  leads to hydrological and biogeochemical processes difficult to model. This study deals with the long-term variations (~decades) of nitrate concentrations in three rivers (~30 km² catchment) located in Brittany. Thus, we focus on groundwater modelling because they constitute the bigger hydrological reservoir. We developed a parsimonious equivalent hillslope-scale groundwater model. The model parameterization, which controls hydrological functioning such as mean groundwater residence times, young water contribution to the river or denitrification, relies on long-term monitored streamflow and nitrate river concentrations. In addition, dissolved CFC were sampled in the catchments. Finally, we found that uncertainty on simulated nitrate river concentrations is low. The physically-based model also brings information on temporal and spatial variability of groundwater residence times highlighting the relative importance of young (1-5 yr) and old waters (~decades) for nitrate river concentrations. Moreover, calibrated models show similar trends looking at two fictive input scenarios from 2015 to 2050.

How to cite: Guillaumot, L., Aquilina, L., de Dreuzy, J.-R., Marçais, J., and Durand, P.: Using hillslope-scale groundwater model to bridge the gap between basin inputs and river concentrations. The case of nitrates in Brittany (France)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10962, 2021.

EGU21-14540 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Improving the estimates of nitrate concentrations at subsurface drained agricultural catchment scale using a new conceptual water quality model

Julien Tournebize, Samy Chelil, Hocine Henine, and Cedric Chaumont

The agricultural source pollution, such as nutrient and pesticides, affect the quality of surface water and groundwater. The agricultural nonpoint source pollution due to the excessive land fertilization is considered by researchers and governments as a concerning and sensitive issue. At the scale of agricultural catchments, the modeling of nitrate-leaching losses has been widely addressed in several studies. However, most of developed models require a large number of input data and parameters. Some of them include a complex process of biogeochemical nitrogen process or a full agronomic module and could be computationally time-consuming. Moreover, the quality of the input data makes the model calibration less efficient.

The objective of this study is to present a new conceptual and reservoir model (SIDRA-N), developed to better access the time-variation of nitrate concentrations [NO3-] at the outlet of subsurface drainage network. The model represent a simplified scheme of subsurface flow and nitrate transfer processes in the soil profile, between the drain and the mid-drain. The soil profile is decomposed into three interconnected compartments: the first compartment represents the rapid transfer of water and nitrate through the soil macroporosity; the two other compartments describe the progressive contribution of the horizontal transfer.

The input data to the nitrate module consists on the Remaining pools of Nitrate at the Beginning of Winter season (RNBW), introduced before the winter of each hydrological year. This value should represent all biogeochemical transformations of nitrogen and agricultural practices from previous crop. This variable can explain until 80% of the total nitrate flux exported yearly. Hence, SIDRA-N model requires only two input variables: the drainage discharge and the RNBW. A set of parameters was introduced to regulate nitrate fluxes and discharge transiting through compartments to the drain outlet.

Calibration and validation (C/V) procedures are fundamental to the assessment of the performance and the robustness of water quality models. In this study, the split sample test for the model calibration and validation (C/V) was carried out using data set from Rampillon study site (355 ha, data for 6 years), located East of Paris, in France. The C/V step was performed using high frequency observations (hourly time-step) of nitrate concentrations and drainage discharge. The results showed performance criteria of KGE greater than 0.5 and RMSE less than 5 mgN/l. These results confirm the very good quality of simulations. Finally, a seasonal model calibration was implemented to observe the yearly parameter variability and ensure the model stability and consistency.

How to cite: Tournebize, J., Chelil, S., Henine, H., and Chaumont, C.: Improving the estimates of nitrate concentrations at subsurface drained agricultural catchment scale using a new conceptual water quality model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14540, 2021.

EGU21-9220 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2 | Highlight

A scalable hybrid model to predict riverine nitrous oxide emissions from the reach to the global scale

Alessandra Marzadri, Giuseppe Amatulli, Daniele Tonina, Alberto Bellin, Longzhu Q. Shen, George H. Allen, and Peter A. Raymond

Nitrous oxide, N2O, is the leading cause for stratospheric ozone depletion and one of the most potent greenhouse gases. Its emissions from riverine systems have been poorly constrained. Thus, we present a novel conceptual framework that leverages the strength of a data driven machine learning technique and physically based model to predict global nitrous oxide emissions (N2O) from streams and rivers worldwide at the reach-scale resolution (about 1-km length). The model accounts for reactant loads, mainly dissolved inorganic nitrogen, biochemical transformation rates, and riverine hydro-morphology. Its high resolution and ability to account for hyporheic, benthic and water column N2O contributions identify small streams (those with widths less than 10 m) as a primary source of riverine N2O emissions to the atmosphere. These streams contribute nearly 36 GgN2O−N/yr, almost 50% of the entire N2O emissions from riverine systems, although they account for only 13% of the total riverine surface area worldwide. Large rivers (widths wider than 100 m), such as the main stems of the Mississippi (∼2 GgN2O−N/yr) and Amazon River (∼7 GgN2O−N/yr), only contribute 30% of global N2O emissions, which primarily originate from their water column. Our approach introduces a dimensionless Emission Factor that varies spatially and temporally and can be quantified from standard hydromorphological and water quality data routinely measured in streams and rivers or can be predicted with good accuracy from interpolation methods such as machine learning. This approach can improve the accuracy of climate change models which can account for a better prediction of N2O spatial and temporal distribution.

How to cite: Marzadri, A., Amatulli, G., Tonina, D., Bellin, A., Shen, L. Q., Allen, G. H., and Raymond, P. A.: A scalable hybrid model to predict riverine nitrous oxide emissions from the reach to the global scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9220, 2021.

EGU21-10666 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Metabolic regime shifts and ecosystem state changes are decoupled in a large river

Jacob Diamond, Florentina Moatar, Matthew Cohen, Alain Poirel, Cécile Martinet, Anthony Maire, and Gilles Pinay

Aquatic ecosystem recovery from anthropogenic degradation can be hampered by internal feedbacks that stabilize undesirable states. The challenges of managing and predicting alternative states in lakes are well known, but state shifts in rivers and their attendant effects on ecosystem function remain understudied despite strong recent evidence that such shifts can and do occur. Using three decades of measurements of key state variables such as turbidity, nutrient concentrations, Corbicula fluminea clam densities, and chlorophyll a, including hourly dissolved oxygen, we investigated a sudden shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in the middle Loire River (France), and its associated effects on the rivers metabolic regime. We show, instead, that despite large and synchronous shifts across all state variables, changes in gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were modest (25% and 14% declines, respectively) and that these shifts lagged the ecosystem state changes by a decade or more. The shift to a macrophyte-dominated state reduced the sensitivity of primary production to abiotic drivers, altered element cycling efficiency, flipped the net carbon balance from positive to negative, and, crucially, weakened the temporal coupling between production and respiration. This weakened coupling, detected using Granger causality, increased the temporal autocorrelation of net ecosystem production, yielding a robust early warning indicator of both state- and metabolic-shifts that may provide valuable guidance for river restoration.

How to cite: Diamond, J., Moatar, F., Cohen, M., Poirel, A., Martinet, C., Maire, A., and Pinay, G.: Metabolic regime shifts and ecosystem state changes are decoupled in a large river, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10666, 2021.

EGU21-9646 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Oligotrophication of boreal headwater rivers: persistent and widespread decline of inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus. 

Virginia Mosquera, Eliza Hasselquist, Ryan Sponseller, and Hjalmar Laudon

Export of nutrients from watersheds is largely regulated by the capacity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to use resources in the face of processes that promote hydrologic export and release to the atmosphere. For nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) soil and plant uptake systems can be particularly strong sinks, taking up useable forms of N and P. Despite this efficient use, over long time scales ecosystems may be subject to substantial N and P losses that varies across time and space. Understanding the trends and seasonality of these nutrient losses on different ecosystems becomes important for the long-term maintenance of terrestrial nutrient limitation as well as for patterns of resource export to recipient aquatic ecosystems. To improve the understanding of nutrient losses from different land covers in natural boreal catchments we used long-term data (2008-2020) from the interdisciplinary, multi-scale Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) in northern Sweden. We focused on 13 intensively monitored catchments with areas ranging from 12 ha to over 6780 ha and with different percentage of land cover characteristics; primarily forest (almost 100%), wetlands (nearly 50%) and lakes. For both P and N the main focus was on the dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). We evaluated the trends in stream nutrient concentration using Mann-Kendall tests to determine the Theil-Sen estimate slopes and a Seasonal Mann Kendall to evaluate the seasonality of the trends. Our results show a steady decline of DIP in all catchments and a decline in most catchments for DIN (11 out of 13). Although all catchments have a negative DIP trend we could not relate the magnitude of the slope to specific land cover or catchment size. Contrary to what we expected, negative trends of DIN during summer were inversely related to forest coverage, meaning that catchments with higher coverage of forest displayed a slower DIN decrease. While negative trends were evident at annual scales for both inorganic nutrients, more detailed assessment revealed time windows when most of this long‐term change occurred. Here, seasonal Mann Kendall tests revealed almost opposite seasonality for both inorganic nutrients, with significant DIP decline during the autumn, winter and spring and strong DIN declines during summer. We suspect these seasonal differences are linked to different processes that are being affected differently by changing seasonal characteristics, including warmer and shorter snow cover periods during winters and warmer and longer summers, respectively. Finally, in light of ongoing increasing trends of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), DIP:DOC and DIN:DOC molar ratios are also steadily increasing over time in most catchments. As a result nutrient balances in the river waters are becoming even more carbon rich and N-P poor, offsetting the balance mainly in growing season for DOC:DIN ratio and in spring and autumn for DOC:DIP ratio.

How to cite: Mosquera, V., Hasselquist, E., Sponseller, R., and Laudon, H.: Oligotrophication of boreal headwater rivers: persistent and widespread decline of inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9646, 2021.

EGU21-2762 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

The ‘Dominant Source Layer’ approach to infer long- and short-term water and solute mobilization in a subhumid Mediterranean catchment

José L. J. Ledesma, Anna Lupon, Guiomar Ruiz-Pérez, Sílvia Poblador, Martyn N. Futter, Eugènia Martí, and Susana Bernal

The ‘Dominant Source Layer’ (DSL) is defined as the riparian zone (RZ) depth stratum that contributes the most to water and solute fluxes to streams. For any given period of time, the DSL position is inferred from the relationship between RZ groundwater table and stream runoff by assuming that lateral fluxes at any given RZ soil depth are proportional to the groundwater table – stream runoff curve. In forest headwaters, the DSL approach can be used to explain timing and amount of water and solute transferred from RZs to streams.

Here, we used the DSL conceptual framework to investigate the potential impact of future climate changes on the long-term mobilization of water and solutes in a subhumid Mediterranean headwater catchment. We used the rainfall-runoff model PERSiST and synthetic temperature, precipitation, and inter-event length scenarios to simulate reference (1981–2000) and future (2081–2100) stream runoff in the catchment. Simulated stream runoff was then used to estimate RZ groundwater tables, and thus, the DSL position, based on the characteristic RZ groundwater table – stream runoff relationship previously established for this catchment. Our simulations indicate that future changes in temperature and precipitation will lead to reductions in stream runoff and water exports, and that the DSL will move down by as much as ca. 30 cm. As a result, shallow organic-rich layers in the RZ may only be hydrologically activated during sporadic large rainfall events predicted for the most extreme inter-event length scenarios. To better understand the transfer of solutes during these large rainfall events, we examined the RZ groundwater table – stream runoff relationship during five large storms for which we had empirical data. We found that this relationship varied among individual storm events depending on antecedent hydroclimatic conditions. Specifically, antecedent drier conditions led to steeper slopes in the RZ groundwater table – stream runoff relationship, which resulted in relatively larger concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO3-) in the stream. A steeper slope of the relationship implies that more RZ layers will be hydrologically connected to the stream, increasing the ‘thickness’ of the DSL and thus the chances for relatively more DOC and NO3- to be mobilized.

Overall, we highlight the importance of identifying the layers in the RZ vertical profile that are hydrologically active (i.e., DSLs) and the factors contributing to their temporal dynamics both at long- and short-term scales, to better predict the transfer of water and solutes from catchment soils to forest headwater streams

How to cite: Ledesma, J. L. J., Lupon, A., Ruiz-Pérez, G., Poblador, S., Futter, M. N., Martí, E., and Bernal, S.: The ‘Dominant Source Layer’ approach to infer long- and short-term water and solute mobilization in a subhumid Mediterranean catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2762, 2021.

EGU21-15119 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Hydrological controls of DOC export from Nordic headwater catchments. 

Jacqueline Knutson, François Clayer, Magnus Norling, Ahti Lepistö, Hannu Marttila, Martyn N. Futter, Karin Eklöf, and Heleen de Wit

Nordic surface waters are currently much browner than during the 1980s due to drivers related to decreased acid deposition, and increased precipitation. While upward trends in concentration of DOC have been well documented, positive trends in the annual export of DOC are not as widespread. The variation in seasonality of DOC export may mask long-term trends in annual export. A large dataset of 30 natural headwater catchments from Finland, Norway, and Sweden contains more than 20 years of discharge and DOC records. We will use these data to better quantify the trends of DOC export and their relationships to seasonality and the effects of climatic changes seen over the last few decades, such as diminished snowpack, less distinct snowmelt events and increases in autumn precipitation. We will investigate both the seasonal and annual relationships between DOC concentration and discharge (C-Q) and test if they relate to time and catchment characteristics such as size, latitude, and landcover.

We explore 3 hypotheses in this data set. First, spring DOC export is decreased due to less distinct snowmelt and runoff events while autumn export of DOC is increased as a consequence of more autumn runoff. Second, we propose that catchments with a longer or more distinct snow cover period are more sensitive than catchments at lower elevation or latitude due to the length of inactivity caused by low temperatures and a more defined snowmelt runoff event. Third, we hypothesize the negative C-Q relationship in winter and spring is likely due to source limitation and dilution while hydrologic controls in summer and autumn are associated with positive C-Q relationships.

Climate change is promoting enhanced export of DOC from soils towards surface waters, leading to more carbon processed and transported along the aquatic continuum from headwaters to coast. This data set gives us an opportunity to look at a diverse set of headwater catchments in the Nordic region, an area disproportionally affected by climate change, to clarify the hydrologic components and how this will affect overall carbon transport. 

How to cite: Knutson, J., Clayer, F., Norling, M., Lepistö, A., Marttila, H., Futter, M. N., Eklöf, K., and de Wit, H.: Hydrological controls of DOC export from Nordic headwater catchments. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15119, 2021.

EGU21-15785 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Elucidating sources and pathways of dissolved organic carbon in a small, forested catchment – A qualitative assessment of stream, soil and shallow groundwater

Katharina Blaurock, Phil Garthen, Benjamin S. Gilfedder, Jan H. Fleckenstein, Stefan Peiffer, and Luisa Hopp

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) constitutes the biggest portion of carbon that is exported from soils. During the last decades, widespread increases in DOC concentrations of surface waters have been observed, affecting ecosystem functioning and drinking water treatment. However, the hydrological controls on DOC mobilization are still not completely understood.

We sampled two different topographical positions within a headwater catchment in the Bavarian Forest National Park: at a steep hillslope (880 m.a.s.l.) and in a flat and wide riparian zone (770 m.a.s.l.). By using piezometers, pore water samplers (peepers) and in-stream spectrometric devices we measured DOC concentrations as well as DOC absorbance (A254/A365 and SUVA254) and fluorescence characteristics (fluorescence and freshness indices) in soil water, shallow ground water and stream water in order to gain insights into the DOC source areas during base-flow and during precipitation events.

High DOC concentrations (up to 80 mg L-1) were found in soil water from cascading sequences of small ponds in the flat downstream part of the catchment that fill up temporarily. The increase of in-stream DOC concentrations during events was accompanied by changing DOC characteristics at both locations, for example increasing freshness index values. As the freshness index values were approaching the values found in the DOC-rich ponds in the riparian zone, these ponds seem to be important DOC sources during events. Our preliminary results point to a change of flow pathways during events.

How to cite: Blaurock, K., Garthen, P., Gilfedder, B. S., Fleckenstein, J. H., Peiffer, S., and Hopp, L.: Elucidating sources and pathways of dissolved organic carbon in a small, forested catchment – A qualitative assessment of stream, soil and shallow groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15785, 2021.

EGU21-11767 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Assessment of lead, cadmium, copper and mercury concentration in water of lower Volga-river

Larisa Burtseva, Boris Pastukhov, and Elizaveta Konkova

The Volga-river is the main waterway of the European territory of Russia. Its waters flow through densely populated urbanized region included in to the river watershed of 1360 thousand km2, which experience a high level of anthropogenic load. Toxic substances of anthropogenic origin, including heavy metals, wasted out in the environment and enter to the river waters.

Additionally to national monitoring measurements, systematic observations are made by the Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology in the lower Volga River (south of Astrakhan). In this work, we evaluate the level of surface water pollution by lead, cadmium, copper, and mercury for the period 2015-2019.

Surface water sampling was carried out simultaneously at four selected points of significantly remote water bodies of the river Volga catchment area - river Bystraya, river Koklyuy and two branch of the river Buzan (Obzhorov site and Lotus kultuk).The sampling were in the hydrological phases - winter low-water season, high water peak, high water fall, summer low-water season, autumn low-water season. Water samples were preserved with nitric acid and analyzed by atomic absorption spectrometry with electrothermal.

An analysis of the data obtained over a five-year period showed that the average concentrations and standard deviations calculated from the full data set were 1.1 μg/l and 72% for Pb, 3.4 μg/l and 32% for Cu, 5.4 μg /l and 100% for Cd, 1.5 μg / l and 140% for Hg. Variability of concentration is decreases according to the order: Hg> Cd> Pb> Cu, the content of copper and lead in the waters of the lower Volga is most stable in space and time during the period under consideration. The maximum average concentration are characteristic for the river Bystraya - 3.8 μg/l Pb in the winter low-water seasons and 5.7 μg/l Cu in the autumn low-water seasons.

Water pollution of the Volga by Hg and Cd is unstable across the delta region and time. The highest concentration of these trace elements was found in the waters of the river Bystraya. The maximum concentration of cadmium was observed during the winter low-water season, to be around 55 μg/l and mercury - around 28 μg/l , during the high water fall period.

This study was carried out in the framework of the Research Project АААА-А20-120020490070-3 « Development and improvement of methods and technologies for integrated background monitoring and comprehensive assessment of the environmental state and pollution in the Russian Federation including their dynamics (based on the joint results of RosHydroMet’s monitoring networks)».

How to cite: Burtseva, L., Pastukhov, B., and Konkova, E.: Assessment of lead, cadmium, copper and mercury concentration in water of lower Volga-river, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11767, 2021.

EGU21-5587 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2 | Highlight

Employing Legacy Road Salt and Soil Electrical Conductivity as Tracers to Unlock Glyphosate Transport Processes in a Variable Source Area

Emma Payne, Steven Pacenka, Brian Richards, Naaran Brindt, Anna Schatz, and Tammo Steenhuis

Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide active ingredient in the world, with 1.35 Tg used globally in 2017. Despite a strong affinity for binding to soil and rapid microbial degradation, in recent studies glyphosate has been detected in agricultural runoff at significant concentrations. This unexplained phenomenon necessitates further study into the mechanism of glyphosate transport from agricultural fields. This study was an investigation into the internal hydrology at a 4.9 ha agricultural catchment and the hydrological processes driving glyphosate transport at this site. Chloride is introduced to this standalone watershed via a point source of sodium chloride road de-icer salt at the top edge of the catchment. The goal of this project was to employ chloride as a tracer to unlock how water moves in the catchment. Since 2015, we have been undertaking annual extensive field sampling campaigns to monitor runoff for glyphosate at an outlet weir. In this project, we used archived samples from the 2018, 2019 and 2020 field campaigns and analyzed over 700 samples for electrical conductivity, over 400 samples for chloride and over 500 samples for glyphosate. During storms, chloride concentration and electrical conductivity decreased as the baseflow component carrying dissolved ions was diluted by the fast response overland flow. During the peak flow of a storm, chloride makes up a consistent fraction of electrical conductivity as the entire catchment contributes to flow at the outlet. We also found that the ratio of glyphosate concentration to electrical conductivity increased linearly with flow rate. The rate of increase (ie., the slope of glyphosate to conductivity ratio versus flow rate) decreases between sequential storms as glyphosate adsorbs and microbially degrades, and from this we extrapolated an empirical degradation half-life of less than 10 days. Cumulatively, the observations of chloride and electrical conductivity suggest that the catchment behaves as a series of connected reservoirs, each with a slow-moving subsurface component and a fast-response overland component. By exploiting the existence of a road salt chloride tracer and soil electrical conductivity in a variable source area, we were able to unlock the hydrological processes at play in areas where surface runoff is generated.

How to cite: Payne, E., Pacenka, S., Richards, B., Brindt, N., Schatz, A., and Steenhuis, T.: Employing Legacy Road Salt and Soil Electrical Conductivity as Tracers to Unlock Glyphosate Transport Processes in a Variable Source Area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5587, 2021.

EGU21-6472 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.2

Assessing Human Imprints on Trace Element Fluxes in the Great Lakes

F. Jacob Pinter, Colton Bentley, and Bas Vriens

The extraction and use of rare earth elements, platinum group elements and other trace metals is growing exponentially around the world. The occurrence of these trace elements in anthropogenic waste streams is increasing correspondingly. Yet, conclusive data on trace element concentrations in urban runoff and wastewater is scarce as these elements are typically not part of governmental surveillance programs and barely environmentally regulated. The human imprints on natural trace element fluxes and their potential environmental impacts therefore remain poorly quantified. We are working to quantify natural and anthropogenic trace element fluxes in the Great Lakes basin. The Great Lakes basin provides a globally unique setting to investigate human imprints on large-scale elemental cycling because it houses >60 million people, contains >20% of the world’s freshwater, and is divided into serially connected sub-basins that facilitate environmental system analyses at various scales.

 

First, we established baseline estimates of current (natural) trace element fluxes in the Great Lakes by aggregating hydrometric and water quality data in simplified black-box mass-balances and dynamic reactor models. These models were informed by >100,000 hydrometric and >50,000 water quality measurements collected across the Great Lakes between 1980-2020 and were calibrated to existing long-term water level and water chemistry records. The bulk of the incorporated data stems from Canadian and US federal and provincial and state monitoring programs, including publicly available datasets from NOAA, EPA, ECCC, Ontario and Michigan state, municipalities, and local conservation authorities. Mass-balance could be achieved up to 94% for conservative elements (Cl, Na), while our dynamic models reveal significantly different source/sink behavior across the upper and lower lakes for more reactive elements. We are currently expanding our models with new ultra-trace level analyses of recent freshwater samples from cruise expeditions, major tributary rivers, and precipitation, as well as sediment records.

 

Second, we considered municipal and industrial wastewater as a proxy for human activity. We collected and analyzed wastewater effluent and digested sludge samples from >40 US and Canadian wastewater treatment facilities (WWTF) and estimated, for >20 trace elements, average discharge rates into the Great Lakes basin. We compared average wastewater-effluent loads with large-scale natural biogeochemical fluxes in the Great Lakes, allowing us to rank the analyzed trace elements as well as individual lakes and tributaries by their apparent human imprint. Our results show anomalously high loading rates for select rare earth elements and precious metals in several tributary systems. Geospatial attributes of the sampled sewersheds (demographics, land use, industrial activity) serve as independent variables in our ongoing effort to source-track these anomalous loads and establish human imprints on catchment tributaries further upstream.

How to cite: Pinter, F. J., Bentley, C., and Vriens, B.: Assessing Human Imprints on Trace Element Fluxes in the Great Lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6472, 2021.

HS2.3.3 – Micropollutants and pathogens in the soil-groundwater-river continuum: modeling and monitoring

EGU21-4930 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3 | Highlight

Global-scale assessment of agrochemicals contamination — the case study of glyphosate 

Federico Maggi, Fiona Tang, and Daniele la Cecilia

The need for comprehensive assessments of agrochemicals use and its potential risk of environmental contamination are imperative, but studies currently exist only at regional and watershed scales. By coupling the recently developed PEST-CHEMGRIDS data product to the BRTSim (BioReactive Transport Simulator) computational framework, we conducted the first mechanistic assessment of the environmental hazard of glyphosate (GLP) use at global scales. PEST-CHEMGRIDS provides the annual application rate of 95 active ingredients, including GLP, on various dominant and aggregated crops (Maggi et al., 2019), and is used to feed the biogeochemical reaction network of GLP biogeochemistry embedded in BRTSim (la Cecilia et al., 2018). Deployment of BRTSim over a georeferenced global-scale grid allowed us to assess four key quantities that determine the level of environmental hazard, namely: (i) soil residue, (ii) biodegradation recalcitrance, (iii) leaching rate below the root zone, and (iv) persistence in the root zone. Our assessment (Maggi et al., 2020) shows that the total average residue in the root zone and leaching below root zone is important only in minor areas globally, but also show that biodegradation recalcitrance and persistence can lead to an environmental hazard in vast agricultural areas worldwide. The latter were largely related to the GLP transformation product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA), because of slow reaction kinetics, further inhibited by the presence of aqueous inorganic phosphate. With the four key quantities, we have mapped the aggregated hazard geographically to identify hotspots where GLP contamination may have to be assessed with greater level of detail. High hazard hotspots cover less than 1% of the agriculture area (inclusive of pastures) and are identified in north Europe, USA, Brazil, and China.

Maggi F., Tang F.H.M., la Cecilia D., McBratney A., (2019), Scientific Data 6(1), 1-20.

la Cecilia D., Tang F.H.M., Coleman N., Conoley C., Veervort R.W., and Maggi F., (2018), Water Research, 146, 37-54.

Maggi F., la Cecilia D., Tang F.H., & McBratney A., (2020). Science of the Total Environment, 717, 137167.

How to cite: Maggi, F., Tang, F., and la Cecilia, D.: Global-scale assessment of agrochemicals contamination — the case study of glyphosate , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4930, 2021.

EGU21-8016 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Long-term monitoring of plant protection products and their transformation products at karstic springs

Johannes Schorr, Franziska Jud, Birgit Beck, Philipp Longree, Heinz Singer, and Juliane Hollender

Karst aquifers are an important water resource for a large part of the world’s population. Because of their natural susceptibility towards contamination, they have to be managed carefully. Human activities such as agriculture, roads or settlements in karst aquifer catchments often lead to the contamination of karstic springs. Due to their special geology, they are at risk of both, long- and short-term contamination. Long-term contamination is due to adsorption of anthropogenic substances in the overlaying soil, the epikarst or rock matrix whereas short-term contamination can be due to spills or precipitation events. Such precipitation events can lead to the mobilization of substances. These are then readily transported to karstic springs where pollutant peaks might be observed. However, current monitoring strategies are not suitable (infrequent, regular sampling intervals) to reveal such peaks. The goal of this study was in a first step, to investigate the contamination level of ten karstic springs (part of NAQUA Swiss National Groundwater Monitoring) in the Swiss Jura, screening for plant protection products (PPP) and transformation products (TP). This was achieved by a monitoring campaign that was conducted from March 2020 until October 2020. Two-week composite samples were collected in addition to the continuous acquisition of electrical conductivity and water level, i.e. spring discharge. Samples were then analyzed by large volume direct injection into a HPLC-HRMS/MS setup using a target list of 130 compounds (105 PPP’s, 25 TP’s).

Analysis of a first batch of samples of three springs did not reveal many compounds with elevated concentrations (33 detections in 15 samples above 100 ng/L of 3 compounds: chloridazone desphenyl, chloridazone methyl desphenyl, chlorothalonil TP R471811). No PPP’s were observed to be continuously leaching from the catchment and the aquifer in concentrations above 100 ng/L. The detected compounds above 100 ng/L were TP’s which indicates that their parent compounds might be adsorbed to the aquifer matrix or the soil cover, therefore leaching TP’s continuously or pulse like during rain events. In total, 19 compounds were detected above their quantification limits. Of those, 10 PPP’s and 9 TP’s were found. We further evaluated spring responses during rain events based on electrical conductivity and determined response times between 3 and 5.5 hours. Since two-week composite samples cannot reveal short-term concentration dynamics given the fast response times and dilution (both leading to low concentrations in composite samples), we will conduct a sampling campaign with a different strategy in 2021. Therein, in a second step, the goal is to study the pollutant dynamics induced by precipitation events with temporally highly resolved measurements. To achieve this we will install a transportable, liquid chromatography, high resolution mass spectrometer at three selected springs and conduct an automatic sampling and analysis with a high temporal resolution.

How to cite: Schorr, J., Jud, F., Beck, B., Longree, P., Singer, H., and Hollender, J.: Long-term monitoring of plant protection products and their transformation products at karstic springs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8016, 2021.

EGU21-8322 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Modelling landscape-level pesticide concentrations with SWAT+ - an uncertainty assessment of application timing

Mike Fuchs, Sebastian Gebler, and Andreas Lorke

Modelling environmental concentrations of plant protection products at landscape-level is of growing interest for pesticide registration and product stewardship, including higher-tier studies in risk assessment, mitigation measures, monitoring support and decision making. However, landscape-level modelling is challenging due to uncertainties by modelling concepts and scaling as well as the extensive (geo)data demand for model parametrization and validation. This includes also limited information about application timing of pesticide products having strong impact on the model performance predicting pesticide concentrations in water bodies. Our work explores the impact of pesticide application timing using the eco-hydrological model SWAT+ (revised version of Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to explore uncertainty effects of application timing and the underlying mechanisms for the surface water exposure pattern in a small-scale catchment. Specific focus thereby was on method development to mimic realistic application timing considering plant stage, hydrology and weather conditions.

On this account, we setup a SWAT+ model of the Funne catchment (54.6 km²) in the North-West of Germany. The simulated daily streamflow was calibrated using publicly available gauge data (Selm-Ondrup) showing a very good hydrological performance of the model (NSE: 0.746). The impact of application timing was subsequently explored by different synthetic application scenarios for three pesticides with varying physio-chemical properties, in combination with static and rule-based timing options. First results taking runoff and drainage into account indicated that a simple forward oriented ruleset (i.e. using weather forecast) could significantly decrease pesticide loads at the catchment outlet on average by 16 to 46%. For individual years and substances, channel loads decreased by up to 92%, which could be attributed to the interaction of rainfall and wash-off timing as the main driver of concentration variation during runoff events. We will further explore the impact of drift entry and other processes (e.g. channel dissipation) as well as different application schemes.

These findings underpin the importance of realistic application timing in landscape-level simulations of pesticide concentration in surface water bodies. It is hence expected that landscape-level tools will play an important role in the future, e.g., for the development and operation of smart decision tools in agriculture.

How to cite: Fuchs, M., Gebler, S., and Lorke, A.: Modelling landscape-level pesticide concentrations with SWAT+ - an uncertainty assessment of application timing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8322, 2021.

EGU21-14188 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3 | Highlight

High-concentrations diel-fluctuations of Plants Protection Products in dry periods

Daniele la Cecilia, Anne Dax, Daniel Odermatt, Heinz Singer, and Christian Stamm

Modern agriculture routinely uses Plant Protection Products (PPPs) to guarantee food security. However, PPPs can reach surface waters where they pose a threat to susceptible non-target organisms. Understanding the contamination sources and flowpaths is of utmost importance to design optimal pollution mitigation strategies. While highest concentration peaks typically occur during rainfalls following PPPs applications, a monitoring campaign in a small Swiss agricultural stream in 2019 detected several compounds in concentrations exceeding the precautionary limit of 100 ng/l by up to 14 times during a dry period. The further exploration of the time series revealed for the first time diel fluctuations of some PPPs. Such peculiar patterns excluded the occurrence of known contamination pathways including spray drift, wind erosion and dry deposition. Despite the availability of an unprecedented high-temporal resolution dataset, we were not able to disentangle the source-flowpath combination driving the observed peculiar dynamics.

Here we present the results of the follow-up 1-day field campaign aiming to close this knowledge gap. The campaign was carried out on the dry day of August 12th 2020 and we collected water samples every 6 hours from the stream at 6 different locations and from 4 outlets of active tile drains.

The results revealed widespread contamination by the fungicide fluopyram; its transformation product fluopyram-benzamide followed identical dynamics but its concentration was 10 times lower than the parent compound. This result is in line with the high DT50 of fluopyram and its broad use in the catchment. The data showed that diel fluctuations were a reoccurring phenomenon; concentrations were higher in the early morning and lower in the early evening at the most downstream location. However, the fluctuating PPPs showed a concentration peak in the upstream location at midday. We were able to narrow down the contamination sources of napropamide, clothianidin, and oxadixyl; the first is a current herbicide, the second is an insecticide not reapproved since 2020, while the third is an old fungicide banned in Switzerland in 2005, which we measured at approximately 200 ng/l. Finally, the investigated tile drains delivered PPPs at lower concentrations compared to the levels measured in the surface water, with the exception of the herbicide metamitron, which was measured at nearly 20 ng/l only at the outlet of 1 tile drain.

The presented research suggested that contamination sources can be localized by means of grab samples collected along the stream. However, it was not conclusive on the flowpath delivering PPPs to the stream. We hypothesize that 2 processes may explain the reported patterns: (i) irrigation at the upstream locations in the early morning; (ii) intra-daily exchanges at the interface between surface water and contaminated shallow groundwater. We will complement the study with expert knowledge by local stakeholders, satellite-derived soil moisture indices, high-resolution land use data and regulatory information to establish a methodology to optimally identify critical source areas in dry periods, where mitigation strategies should be put in place.

How to cite: la Cecilia, D., Dax, A., Odermatt, D., Singer, H., and Stamm, C.: High-concentrations diel-fluctuations of Plants Protection Products in dry periods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14188, 2021.

EGU21-5485 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3 | Highlight

Sources and pathways of biocides and their transformation products in 2ha urban district

Felicia Linke, Oliver Olsson, Frank Preusser, Klaus Kümmerer, Lena Schnarr, and Jens Lange

Biocides used as film protection products to prevent algae and fungi growth on facades wash off during rain events and represent a potential risk to the environment. So far, urban monitoring studies focused mainly on large heterogeneous urban areas. Thus, little information about individual sources and entry pathways were obtained. However, this is important to understand the potential risk of biocide entry to groundwater.

This study investigates biocide emissions from a 2 ha residential area, 13 years after construction has ended. Investigated substances represent commonly used biocides for film protection, i.e. Terbutryn, Diuron and Octylisothiazolinone (OIT) and some of their known transformation products (TPs, Diuron-Desmethyl, Terbumeton, 2-Hydroxy-Terbutylazin and Terbutryn-Desethyl). We used existing urban infrastructure for efficient monitoring and applied a three-step approach to (a) determine the overall relevance of biocides, (b) identify source areas and long-term emission and (c) characterize entry pathways into surface- and groundwater.

Initial sampling in the swale system gave an integrated signal from the entire district and confirmed the relevance of biocide leaching, more than a decade after construction. Concentrations peaked at 174 ng/L for Diuron and 40 ng/L for Terbutryn during a high magnitude event and were above PNEC values. During later events, transformation products were detected, though at lower concentrations. For all substances, source areas were identified in a second step. Artificial elution experiments confirmed expected sources, i.e. façades, but we also found additional sources through sampling of rainfall downpipes from flat roofs. A small part of the roof façade was repainted two years before sampling and thereby showed a magnitude higher leaching rates than the remaining façades. Since all biocide wash-off arrived on a flat roof and was drained by rainfall down pipes, we could estimate net biocide emission and arrived at 155 mg Diuron, 17 mg Terbutryn, 12 mg OIT and 17 mg Diuron-Desmethyl from a 10 m2 painted façade area over a time period of two years. In a third step, we characterized entry pathways comparing samples from a drainage pipe that collected road runoff (surface pathway) with two others that collected infiltrated water on top of an underground garage (soil pathway). All drainage pipes showed Terbutryn, two of them also Diuron but none OIT. The drainage pipe representing the surface pathway showed a smaller number of individual transformation products but similar concentrations of parent compounds. One pipe representing the soil pathway had highest concentrations of Terbutryn and its TPs which suggests a high leaching potential of this biocide also away from concentrated infiltration in urban stormwater management infrastructure.

How to cite: Linke, F., Olsson, O., Preusser, F., Kümmerer, K., Schnarr, L., and Lange, J.: Sources and pathways of biocides and their transformation products in 2ha urban district, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5485, 2021.

EGU21-7865 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Transformation of the urban triazine type biocide terbutryn: insights from Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis

Tobias Junginger, Sylvain Payraudeau, Jérémy Masbou, and Gwenaël Imfeld

Biocides are added in building materials like renders or paints on façades as protection against algae and fungi growth. With wind driven rainfall, biocides can leach from buildings and eventually contaminate urban groundwater. Studies on transfer, degradation kinetics, degradation mechanisms and persistence in the environment of urban biocides are rare. Traditional methods based on concentrations often reflect both dilution, due to non-destructive processes, and degradation involving bond-breaking of biocide molecules. Established since two decades for legacy point-source industrial contaminants, Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis (CSIA) is an emerging approach to evaluate magnitudes and mechanisms of non-point source micropollutant degradation in the environment, although it has not been applied yet to urban biocides. To use CSIA in field-based approaches, reference laboratory degradation experiments have to be conducted.

Here we carried out reference abiotic hydrolysis, photodegradation and biodegradation experiments for the urban biocide terbutryn to compare kinetics and evaluate the spectrum of stable isotope fractionation to interpret transformation pathways. Experimental setups for hydrolysis include pH = 1, pH = 13 and pH = 7. Photodegradation experiments were conducted under direct UV irradiation (λ = 254 nm) and under simulated sunlight. Simulated sunlight assays involved both direct and indirect photodegradation experiments. Biodegradation experiments were conducted in activated sewage sludge, soil and for the sediment-water interface of artificial wetland systems to evaluate various environmental compartments. We estimated degradation rates, followed-up the isotopic signatures based on carbon, nitrogen and sulphur stable isotopes and quantified the formation of transformation product using LC-MS. Reference degradation experiments for terbutryn showed that CSIA can be used as concentration-independent tool to identify the dominant degradation processes in the environment by combining (i) the isotopic enrichment of stable isotopes by dual isotope plots and (ii) the pattern of formed transformation products. For carbon, isotope fractionation values range from ɛC= -3.4 ± 0.3 ‰ for abiotic hydrolysis at pH=1 to an inverse isotope effect of ɛC= 0.8 ± 0.4 ‰ in direct photodegradation experiment under UV irradiation, which underscore the potential of terbutryn CSIA to differentiate degradation mechanisms. Biodegradation rates in soil and the sediment-water interface are rather low (t1/2 > 200 days), indicating that terbutryn may not be easily biodegraded. Altogether, our study underscores that lab scale experiments are necessary to retrieve reference kinetics and mechanistic values to follow micropollutant degradation based on CSIA in the environment. It also emphasizes the applicability of CSIA for the urban biocide terbutryn. Reference isotope fractionation values can be used in the future to monitor transport and transformation of terbutryn at urban sites while supporting predictive model development for urban biocide export.

How to cite: Junginger, T., Payraudeau, S., Masbou, J., and Imfeld, G.: Transformation of the urban triazine type biocide terbutryn: insights from Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7865, 2021.

EGU21-199 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Monitoring of veterinary pharmaceuticals in the Bienne river (Jura Mountain, France)

Elie Dhivert, Bertrand Devillers, Maha Al Badany, Leslie Mondamert, and Jérôme Labanowski

The Bienne river (Jura Mountain, France) drains a basin of medium altitude mountains characterized by extensive cattle breeding (mostly dairy cows). A monitoring of the contamination by veterinary pharmaceuticals was performed using passive sampling devices - POCIS (Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Samplers), between September 2019 and January 2020. Four hydrological conditions were analysed: a sever low-flow periods, two flood events and a winter situation close to the mean interannual flow. Each time, POCIS were exposed over 2 weeks at 2 stations located in the upper and downstream reaches of the river. 19 pharmaceuticals were selected from information given by local veterinarians and analysed by LC MS-MS: endo and ectoparasites treatments; antibiotics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The monitoring shows that most of these chemicals (12 substances) are quantified in all POCIS samples and the others show relatively high occurrences, between 25 and 88%. Average concentrations in water (calculated with the sampling rate i.e. considering the time of exposition of POCIS samplers in the river) are remarkably close between the 2 monitoring stations. Concentrations are high all over the studied period and reach a maximum during flood events. Thus, hazardous effects are expected on freshwater organisms, especially for macrocyclic lactones and pyrethroids and organophosphates pesticides. The antibiotics concentrations ranges can also disturb microbial communities existing in the river. Such results highlight an important impregnation by these pharmaceuticals at the catchment scale, involving diffuse sources as grasslands receiving contaminated cow dungs and manures. Veterinary compounds are strongly remobilized during rain episodes by run off and infiltration in soils. In the hydrogeological context of the Bienne basin, karstic flows emphasize the connectivity between grasslands and the river. Therefore, an important part of the contaminated leaching waters can rapidly reach the river via the soil drains and surface / subsurface flows. Rather than another part goes through less porosity pathways and delivers pollutants over a longer period. Wastewater discharges and sludges from rural and urban treatment plants can also contribute to this pollution for pharmaceuticals also used in human medications.

How to cite: Dhivert, E., Devillers, B., Al Badany, M., Mondamert, L., and Labanowski, J.: Monitoring of veterinary pharmaceuticals in the Bienne river (Jura Mountain, France), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-199, 2021.

EGU21-712 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Geochemical modelling of arsenic release into the crystalline aquifers: preliminary study

Ilaria Fuoco, Rosanna De Rosa, and Carmine Apollaro

Arsenic (As) is a toxic element present in different natural systems. The aqueous As species and their concentrations in natural waters depend on a variety of parameters, including the presence of natural source and the local geochemical conditions. The primary source of As in natural waters is the oxidation of mineral sulphides like arsenopyrite (FeAsS) and As-rich pyrite (FeS2) [1]. The trivalent iron (Fe3+) can act as oxidant for pyrite oxidative dissolution together with dissolved oxygen.In this work the attention is focused in As- contaminated area of the Calabria Region (Southern Italy). The high arsenic concentration is a peculiar characteristic of the shallow groundwaters circulating in a limited area of the Calabria region, which represents an unexplored mineralized area. Indeed, although pyrite is widely present in the crystalline rocks, its spatial distribution is highly variable and not predicable [2]. Generally, the As content of the studied granite rocks is within the normal global range but the presence of not-surfacing, hydrothermally-altered granites, could be the cause of As contamination in limited areas.  In order to explain the As-rich groundwaters occurring into crystalline aquifer, a reaction path modelling of granite dissolution was performed by using EQ3/6 software package version 8a.  The dissolving granite was considered to be constituted by quartz, two types of plagioclase (representing the rim and the core of the mineral), K-feldspar, biotite, muscovite, chlorite, epidote, fluorapatite and pyrite.  The considered value of pyrite content and its As concentration fall within the global estimations [3]. Two simulations were performed allowing the precipitation of moganite, gibbsite, kaolinite, illite-py and the calcite-rich solid solution of trigonal carbonate. Moreover, two oxy-hydroxide solid solutions composed of amorphous Fe(OH)3 - amorphous ferric arsenate and 2 lines-ferrihydrite - scorodite were precipitated in two separate runs to evaluate their effects on dissolved As. Nine water samples were used to fix the boundary conditions as well as to validate the outcomes of geochemical modeling. The arsenic concentration detected ranging from 25 to 435 µg/L. The theoretical trend involving the precipitation of amorphous Fe(OH)3 is in agreement with the groundwaters richest in As, because a higher amount of pyrite is dissolved due to a greater availability of trivalent Fe in the aqueous solution, which is caused by the higher solubility of amorphous Fe(OH)3 compared to 2-line ferrihydrite. The analytical data of the As-rich groundwaters, as a whole, are well explained by the performed simulations, suggesting that these processes control the release and fate of arsenic during the water-rock interaction.

 

[1]. Sracek, O., Bhattacharya, P., Jacks, G., Gustafsson, J. P., & Von Brömssen, M. ,2004. Behavior of arsenic and geochemical modeling of arsenic enrichment in aqueous environments. Applied Geochemistry, 19(2), 169-180.

[2]. Bonardi G., De Vivo B., Giunta G., Lima A., Perrone V., Zuppetta A., 1982. Mineralizzazioni dell’Arco Calabro Peloritano.Ipotesi genetiche e quadro evolutivo. Boll.Soc.Geol.It. 101

[3]. Smedley, P. L., & Kinniburgh, D. G.,2002. A review of the source, behaviour and distribution of arsenic in natural waters. Applied geochemistry, 17(5), 517-568.

How to cite: Fuoco, I., De Rosa, R., and Apollaro, C.: Geochemical modelling of arsenic release into the crystalline aquifers: preliminary study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-712, 2021.

EGU21-12165 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Size fractionation highlights the mobility of copper from urban stormwater to river

Du Phuc Tho Dang, Béatrice Béchet, and Liliane Jean-Soro

Copper is an ubiquitous essential element but also toxic to aquatic organisms, Environmental Quality Standards being 1 µg.L-1 for surface water (annual mean concentration). Rivers and estuaries are mainly concerned by copper accumulation in sediments and in organisms. Copper can originate from various manufactured products (antifouling painting, vineyards fungicides, brake linings….) and anthropic activities (industrial, landfills…). As a result, copper French median concentration in oysters is about 200 mg.kg-1 DM (Ifremer, 2017).

Transportation, especially road transport, is the main French source of copper air emissions (92% of total emissions) (CITEPA, 2019). Then, urban areas, mainly impervious, constitute a major non-point source of copper from abrasion of brake pads and tires, and fuels. This contaminant is released from the road surfaces through stormwater runoff directly to water bodies or after collection in sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). As the epuration performance of SUDS for copper was shown to be low, this study is carried out to evaluate if copper mobility can be explained by its physical speciation. The distribution of copper among dissolved, colloidal and particulate fractions is studied by size fractionation, assuming that the mobility of copper is related to a high dissolved and colloidal occurrence.

The study site is a retention-infiltration basin collecting the runoff waters of the main bridge of Nantes (France; about 90 000 vehicles/day), and overflowing to the Loire river . Size fractionation by in series filtration and ultrafiltration was performed on stormwater runoff and surface waters sampled within the basin. Five fractions were analyzed for major and trace elements: ] ; 8µm ], ] 8µm ; 1,2µm ], ] 1,2µm ; 0,45µm ], ] 0,45µm ; 5kDa ] and ] 5kDa. Among these fractions ] ; 8µm ] correspond to particulate copper, ] 8µm ; 1,2µm ], ] 1,2µm ; 0,45µm ], ] 0,45µm ; 5kDa ] to colloidal copper and ] 5kDa ; [ to dissolved copper. Size fractionations were implemented for 8 samples with 2 replicates for each sample and over 1 year. 0.45 µm filtrations were also conducted as a reference.

The total copper concentration in runoff was around 100µg.L-1, which is in the upper part of the concentrations observed in the area of Nantes in SUDS. The results of the size fractionation are as follows : 1) for the stormwater runoffs, particulate copper is about 70% of the total amount, colloidal copper is present for 20% and 10% of dissolved copper is measured. Thus 30 % of copper are mobile; 2) for the surface waters in the basin, the distribution of copper among the dissolved, colloidal and particulate fractions, is respectively 20 %, 70 % and 10 %.

We concluded that 1) the concentration of copper is 100 times higher the regulation value for natural environment, and 2) particulate fractions of copper are trapped at the entrance of the basin, and an high content of mobile copper (dissolved and colloidal fractions) is observed in the basin that could either be overflowed or infiltrated in the sub-soil of the basin.

How to cite: Dang, D. P. T., Béchet, B., and Jean-Soro, L.: Size fractionation highlights the mobility of copper from urban stormwater to river, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12165, 2021.

EGU21-116 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Sulphur functionalized nanomaterials for monitoring and trapping heavy metals in water environment

Ankit Dodla, Shobha Shukla, Tanveer Adyel, and Sumit Saxena

Extensive industrialization and urbanization have adversely affected the quality of consumable water on the earth. The industrial effluents are the major source of micropollutants such as heavy metals, which deteriorates the environment making it toxic to the flora and fauna sustaining in the water. Heavy metals such as lead, cobalt, arsenic, chromium, and mercury are toxic even in trace amounts, whereas presence of higher concentration of iron, cobalt and zinc could be detrimental. Bioaccumulation and hypertoxicity of these heavy metals mark them one of important micropollutants to be monitored. Most of these heavy metals are soft Lewis acid metals such as Ag+, Au+, Cd2+, Hg2+, Pb2+ are considered as thiophilic. In nature, proteins responsible for metabolizing and binding to heavy metals are rich in sulphur functionalized groups such as cysteine and glutathione. This work will address the various sulphur functionalized nanomaterials which are inspired by nature will enhance the monitoring and trapping of heavy metals in water environment.

How to cite: Dodla, A., Shukla, S., Adyel, T., and Saxena, S.: Sulphur functionalized nanomaterials for monitoring and trapping heavy metals in water environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-116, 2021.

EGU21-15263 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3 | Highlight

Can mitigation schemes produce detectable long-term temporal trends and spatial patterns in aquatic pesticide pollution?

Clément Fabre, Reynold Chow, Ruth Scheidegger, Tobias Doppler, Anne Dietzel, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Christian Stamm

Agroecological schemes are implemented worldwide in order to reduce water quality impairment from agricultural pesticide use. However, evaluating the success or failure of these schemes is challenging because other influencing factors can confound their effects. For instance, aquatic pesticide pollution has been found to vary greatly due to the interannual variability in weather conditions (e.g., the timing, intensity, and duration of precipitation events) and changes in pesticide application practices (e.g., changing pest pressure, phasing-out and replacement of specific products, development of pesticide resistance).

Our research investigates the necessary conditions to detect significant trends in pesticide concentrations in the context of the Swiss National Action Plan (NAP), which aims to halve aquatic pesticide pollution risk from agricultural pesticide use within Swiss river networks by 2027.

We base our analyses for temporal trends on a calibrated model for pesticide transport at the catchment scale, which we use to separate the long-term effects of the NAP from interannual variability due to weather conditions. Our results indicate that the interannual variability due to weather conditions can override the effects of even a 50% reduction in pesticide application for rain-driven input. This implies that the concentration levels themselves may be insufficient to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NAP within a reasonable time horizon of a decade. This is because the lowering of in-stream pesticide concentrations can be due to the timing and intensity of precipitation relative to the application of pesticides and not from the effectiveness of pesticide mitigation measures. Therefore, we have further explored potential methods to account for the weather effects on the pesticide concentration levels. Accounting for the weather conditions by considering the dependence of concentration levels on discharge conditions during the application period improves the statistical power to detect trends.

Furthermore, we assess the potential to extrapolate the trends observed at 23 monitoring sites from different catchments (varying in size 1 km2 to > 20,000 km2) across Switzerland to the entire Swiss river network. As a first step, we analyzed substances applied to corn because this crop is widespread in the country, is easy to follow as herbicides are applied only once a year, and only a few pesticides are applied. The analysis revealed that for some of these corn herbicides, the seasonal patterns were consistent across many catchments and in agreement with the crop specific expectations. However, for other herbicides we identified regional patterns with unexpected concentration peaks in the fall. This observation requires more detailed inquiries in regional use patterns and highlights the need to account for regionalized pesticide use when extrapolating monitoring data to larger scales.

How to cite: Fabre, C., Chow, R., Scheidegger, R., Doppler, T., Dietzel, A., Fenicia, F., and Stamm, C.: Can mitigation schemes produce detectable long-term temporal trends and spatial patterns in aquatic pesticide pollution?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15263, 2021.

EGU21-2567 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

How can risk mitigation measures for surface runoff and erosion be included in the regulatory environmental risk assessment for pesticides in Germany?

Michael Klein, Stefan Reichenberger, Simon Spycher, Isabel O'Connor, Kai Thomas, Sebastian Multsch, Stephan Sittig, Dietlinde Großmann, and Jens Flade

Surface runoff from agricultural fields is a major input pathway of pesticides into surface waters. The aim of this project was to i) analyze the effectiveness of various mitigation measures to reduce pesticide runoff and erosion inputs into surface waters, ii) assess the suitability of the measures found effective for use in the quantitative environmental exposure assessment for authorization of plant protection products (PPP), and iii) make recommendations how the potentially suitable measures could be applied in risk assessment of PPP in Germany.

Following a literature analysis, 16 risk mitigation measures were presented to five experts in the field. Measures finally selected for quantitative analysis belong to 3 groups: vegetative filter strips (VFS), soil conservation measures (including no-till) and microdams in row crops. VFS effectiveness was analysed with CART (Classification and Regression Trees) using the dataset compiled by Reichenberger et al. (2019). CART was performed for three target variables: i) relative reduction of total inflow by the VFS (ΔQ), ii) relative reduction of sediment load (ΔE), and relative reduction of pesticide load (ΔP). The main data sources for soil conservation measures were a plot database with annual runoff volumes and soil losses (Maetens et al., 2012), a literature review (Fawcett et al., 1994) and a field study with event-based data (Erlach, 2005), while for microdams the principal source were the data compiled by Sittig et al. (2020).

The following conclusions were drawn from the analysis:

VFS can be recommended for application in quantitative risk assessment.  However, infiltration and sedimentation should be simulated with a mechanistic model such as VFSMOD.

Due to the high variability of results and limited availability of high-quality data, effectiveness of mulch-till could not be quantified sufficiently well. It can therefore not be recommended for now as a regulatory mitigation measure.

Before recommending no-till as a regulatory mitigation measure for surface runoff and erosion, the question of potentially increased pesticide loss via leaching and drainage should be clarified.

Microdams in row crops can also be recommended as a regulatory mitigation measure, since they have shown to be effective and their effect can be modelled as a reduction of the runoff Curve Number. However, elaborating a CN table for e.g. the FOCUS scenarios would require an in-depth analysis of the available data.

How to cite: Klein, M., Reichenberger, S., Spycher, S., O'Connor, I., Thomas, K., Multsch, S., Sittig, S., Großmann, D., and Flade, J.: How can risk mitigation measures for surface runoff and erosion be included in the regulatory environmental risk assessment for pesticides in Germany?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2567, 2021.

EGU21-1735 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Fate of pesticide residues in vegetative filter strips in long-term exposure assessments: VFSMOD development and analysis

Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Stefan Reichenberger, Robin Sur, and Klaus Hammel

Inclusion of quantitative mitigation of pesticides in regulatory environmental risk assessment (ERA) using common agricultural field conservation practices is a critical need recently identified by experts in North America and EU [1]. Currently, mitigation by vegetative filter strips (VFS) is available by coupling the event-based model VFSMOD in continuous simulations within current long-term higher-tier surface water ERA frameworks (EU FOCUS SWAN, US EPA PWC, PRMA Canada, California CDPR PREM, etc.). In this case, the field management and pesticide-laden surface runoff at the edge of the field is calculated by the model PRZM and VFSMOD routes it from the edge of field through a VFS of desired characteristics to estimate potential load reductions before entering the aquatic environment, simulated by the receiving water body model (FOCUS TOXSWA, EPA VVWM). While under proper settings VFS could effectively reduce pesticide concentrations in surface water below thresholds of concern- what happens to the residues trapped in the VFS? The current ERA VFS framework uses a highly risk-conservative assumption, whereby the pesticide trapped in the VFS undergoes degradation between storm events and the surface residue (soil mixing layer and adsorbed to trapped sediment) is remobilized in full and added to the incoming pesticide load in the next event in the series. While risk conservative, this initial approach is not consistent with the nonuniform pesticide redistribution and extraction with depth used in the model PRZM within current ERA, and it has also been found too conservative for highly sorbed compounds with high specific toxicity like pyrethroids and others. The objective of this study is to develop a complete VFSMOD component to quantify the fate of VFS pesticide residues between runoff events for use in long-term ERA simulations. This includes realistic assumptions of the fate of the residues, including non-linear pesticide redistribution in the soil, mass balance of the VFS soil mixing layer and sediment trapped, degradation between runoff events, and partial remobilization and carryover of the remaining residue to the next event. Initial sensitivity and limited testing with existing field data are discussed.

How to cite: Muñoz-Carpena, R., Reichenberger, S., Sur, R., and Hammel, K.: Fate of pesticide residues in vegetative filter strips in long-term exposure assessments: VFSMOD development and analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1735, 2021.

EGU21-117 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

An improved method for the parameterization of sediment trapping in VFSMOD

Stefan Reichenberger, Robin Sur, Stephan Sittig, Sebastian Multsch, and Rafael Muñoz-Carpena

The most widely implemented mitigation measure to reduce transfer of pesticides to surface water bodies via surface runoff are vegetative filter strips (VFS). To reliably model the reduction of surface runoff, eroded sediment and pesticide load by VFS an event-based model is needed. The most commonly used model for this purpose is VFSMOD. VFSMOD simulates reduction of total inflow (∆Q) and reduction of incoming eroded sediment load (∆E) mechanistically. These variables are subsequently used to calculate the reduction of pesticide load (∆P). While ∆P can be relatively well predicted from ∆Q, ∆E and some other variables, errors in ∆Q and ∆E will propagate to ∆P. Hence, for strongly sorbing compounds, an accurate prediction of ∆E is crucial. The most important parameter characterizing the incoming sediment in VFSMOD is the median particle diameter d50. The objective of this study was to derive a generic d50 parameterization methodology for sediment trapping in VFSMOD that can be readily used for regulatory VFS scenarios.

Four studies with 16 hydrological events were selected for modelling. A first set of VFSMOD simulations, following the SWAN-VFSMOD sediment parameterization with d50 = 20 µm yielded a general overestimation of ∆E. Consequently, a maximum-likelihood-based calibration and uncertainty analysis with the DREAM-ZS algorithm was performed for the 16 events. The resulting d50 values were all in the low range (1.3-5.4 µm) and did not allow to establish a robust relationship to predict a wider range of d50 from the available explanatory variables. To increase the sample size and the range of d50 values, the comprehensive Kinston dataset for a loamy sand in North Carolina was calibrated with DREAM-ZS. Calibration was performed separately for each hydrological event. Further data points with measured particle size distributions in run-on were assimilated from the literature. The extended test data set of d50 values and explanatory variables was analysed using an extended multiple linear regression (MLR) approach and Classification and Regression Trees (CART).

A good calibration of event totals and outflow hydrographs could be achieved for most events and VFS treatments of the Kinston site. The calibrated d50 values yielded a wider range (2-16 µm) than the initial 16 events.

The improved d50 parameterization method derived with MLR/CART will be adopted in the next version of SWAN-VFSMOD to provide more realistic quantitative mitigation within FOCUS STEP4.

How to cite: Reichenberger, S., Sur, R., Sittig, S., Multsch, S., and Muñoz-Carpena, R.: An improved method for the parameterization of sediment trapping in VFSMOD, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-117, 2021.

EGU21-7829 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.3

Implementation of shallow water table effects on pesticide runoff mitigation efficiency by vegetative filter strips within SWAN-VFSMOD

Robin Sur, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Stefan Reichenberger, Klaus Hammel, Horatio Meyer, and Nils Kehrein

Quantitative mitigation of pesticides entering surface water using vegetative filter strips (VFS) is currently available within the regulatory SWAN tool for EU FOCUS STEP 4 simulations. For the VFSMOD model option, field estimates of surface runoff, sediment and pesticide loads simulated with the model PRZM are routed through the VFS where VFSMOD estimates the reductions of total inflow (dQ), eroded sediment (dE) and pesticide (dP) loads before the remaining runoff enters the waterbody. The reduced runoff is handed over to the TOXSWA aquatic model to calculate predicted environmental concentrations in surface water (PECsw). Brown et al. (2012) proposed VFSMOD parametrization rules including the selection of VFS soils and other characteristics for use in the FOCUS R1 to R4 (Rx) SWAN scenarios. The rules apply to free-draining soils, described in VFSMOD by the Green-Ampt model extended for unsteady rainfall. However, in some EU regions, the presence of a seasonal shallow water table (sWT) is common. In these cases, the VFS efficiency can be limited, depending on water table depth (WTD) and soil type. VFSMOD incorporates a sWT mechanistic infiltration component that has proven successful to predict sWT effects in VFS experiments. This component requires soil hydraulic characteristics, described by e.g. the Mualem-van Genuchten (MvG) equations.

The main objective of this study is to identify Rx representative VFS soils to study the effects of sWT on pesticide mitigation for a combination of illustrative storms and pesticides, as well as on PECsw from long-term SWAN simulations.

The selection and testing of the Rx VFS soils seeks to reflect a 90th-percentile worst case in space of dP. The multicriteria adopted in the soil selection evaluate not only dP, but also the percentile of important soil parameters for noWT (Ks, Sav) and sWT infiltration conditions (fillable pore volume fpv). The framework consisted of 4 steps: (a) soil spatial soil database analysis for VFS Rx mitigation scenarios; (b) selection of VFS candidate soils; (c) analysis of effects of sWT and sorption on dP for individual storm events; (d) Effect of sWT on long-term STEP 4 SWAN VFS mitigation simulations. For (a), representative soil profiles and area coverage for each of the EU Rx were obtained by combining the latest EU JRC soil profile databases SPADE2 and SPADE14. Each multilayer soil was aggregated into single-layer depth-weighted profiles, and MvG parameters were estimated using HYPRES pedotransfer functions (PTF). Water table depths (WTD) were set at equilibrium with TOXSWA median surface water level, and Sav and fpv were calculated by numerical integration from MvG characteristics. For (b), 10644 VFSMOD simulations were run for all combinations of soils, T=1 and 10 yr storms, high/low Koc pesticides, and sWT/noWT conditions. Candidate Rx VFS soils were selected for the most conservative case (low Koc=100 Kg/L pesticide, T=10 yr storm) and noWT to achieve the target spatial 90th percentile worst case of pesticide load reduction by the VFS. 

The implementation of the new sWT VFS mitigation component provides a more realistic description of pesticide reduction in accordance with STEP 4 EU FOCUS objectives.

How to cite: Sur, R., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Reichenberger, S., Hammel, K., Meyer, H., and Kehrein, N.: Implementation of shallow water table effects on pesticide runoff mitigation efficiency by vegetative filter strips within SWAN-VFSMOD, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7829, 2021.

HS2.3.4 – Plastic in freshwater environments

EGU21-6027 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Endless journey of macroplastics in rivers: From hours to decades tracking in the Seine River

Romain Tramoy, Johnny Gasperi, Laurent Colasse, Marie Silvestre, Philippe Dubois, and Bruno Tassin

Rivers are major pathways of plastics from lands into the Ocean. However, there is still a huge lack of knowledge on how riverine litter, including macroplastics, is transferred into the Ocean. Quantitative measurements of macroplastic emissions in rivers even suggest that a small fraction (0.001 to 3%) of the Mismanaged Plastic Waste (MPW) generated within a river basin finally reach the sea. Instead, macroplastics may remain within the catchment and on coastlines because of complex transport dynamics that delay the transfer of plastic debris. In order to better understand those dynamics, we performed tracking of riverine litter over time. First, hundreds of date-prints items were collected on riverbanks in the Seine estuary. The distribution of their Use-By-Dates suggest that riverine litter may remain stored on riverbanks for decades. Second, we performed real time tracking of floating and sub-floating bottles using GPS-trackers. Between March 2018 and April 2019, 39 trajectories were recorded in the estuary under tidal influence and 11 trajectories upriver, covering a wide range of hydrometeorological conditions. Results show a succession of stranding/remobilization episodes in combination with alternating upstream and downstream transport in the estuary related to tides. In the end, tracked bottles systematically stranded somewhere, for hours to weeks, from one to several times on different sites. The overall picture shows that different hydrometeorological phenomena interact with various time scales ranging from hours/days (high/low tides) to weeks/months (spring/neap tides and highest tides) and years (seasonal river flow, vegetation and geomorphological aspects). Thus, the fate of plastic debris is highly unpredictable with a chaotic-like transfer of plastic debris into the Ocean. The residence time of these debris is much longer than the transit time of water. This offers the opportunity to collect them before they get fragmented and/or reach the Sea.

How to cite: Tramoy, R., Gasperi, J., Colasse, L., Silvestre, M., Dubois, P., and Tassin, B.: Endless journey of macroplastics in rivers: From hours to decades tracking in the Seine River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6027, 2021.

EGU21-4498 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Macroplastic Debris Transfer in Rivers: A Travel Distance Approach 

Robert Newbould, Mark Powell, and Mick Whelan

Plastic accumulation in the marine environment is a major concern given the harmful effects and longevity of plastics at sea. Although rivers significantly contribute to flux of plastic to marine systems, plastic transport in rivers remains poorly understood and estimates of riverine plastic flux derived from field measurements and modelling efforts are highly uncertain. In this study, a new probabilistic model of plastic transport in rivers is presented which describes the main processes controlling displacement to predict the statistical distribution of travel distances for individual items of buoyant macroplastic debris. Macroplastic transport is controlled by retention in temporary stores (or traps) created by vegetation, bank roughness elements and other obstacles. The behaviour of these traps is represented in the model via a series of Bernoulli trials conducted in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The probability of retention or release from traps is described using physical characteristics such as the type of vegetation, channel width or channel sinuosity index. The model was calibrated using a tracer experiment with six replicates, conducted in a small 1.1 km river reach. For each replicate, 90 closed air-filled plastic bottles were injected at the upstream end of the reach and the location of each bottle was recorded several times over a 24-hour period. Bottles were chosen as ‘model’ macroplastic litter items given their high usage and littering volume. Travel distances were low (the average distance travelled over 24 hours was 231 m and no bottles travelled more than 1.1 km, the length of the study reach) and variable (the coefficient of variation for the replicates ranged between 0.54 and 1.41). The travel distance distributions were controlled by the location and characteristics of discrete traps. The numerical model described the observed travel distance distributions reasonably well (particularly the trapping effect of overhanging trees and flow separation at meander bends), which suggests that modelling plastic transport for longer reaches and even whole catchments using a stochastic travel distance approach is feasible. The approach has the potential to improve estimates of total river plastic flux to the oceans, although significant knowledge gaps remain (e.g. the rate and location of plastic supply to river systems, the transport behaviours of different types of plastic debris in rivers and the effectiveness of different traps in different types of river system).

How to cite: Newbould, R., Powell, M., and Whelan, M.: Macroplastic Debris Transfer in Rivers: A Travel Distance Approach , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4498, 2021.

EGU21-7641 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Macroplastic storage and remobilization in rivers

Maciej Liro, Tim van Emmerik, Bartłomiej Wyżga, Justyna Liro, and Paweł Mikuś

Processes of macroplastic (plastic particles > 5 mm) storage and remobilization in rivers have been overlooked so far, but are of crucial importance for the estimation of plastic accumulation and transport and associated risks. We present a conceptual model that defines phases of the macroplastic route through a fluvial system and systematizes their main controls. We divided macroplastic route into (1) input, (2) transport, (3) storage, (4) remobilization and (5) output phases. Phase 1 is mainly controlled by humans, phases 2–4 by fluvial processes, and phase 5 by both types of controls. We hypothesize that natural characteristics of fluvial systems and their modification by dam reservoirs and flood embankments construction are key controls on macroplastic storage and remobilization in rivers. The zone of macroplastic storage can be defined as a river floodplain inundated since the beginning of widespread disposal of plastic waste to the environment in the 1960s and the remobilization zone as a part of the storage zone currently influenced by floodwaters and bank erosion. The amount of macroplastic in both zones can be estimated using data on the abundance of surface- and subsurface-stored macroplastic, and the lateral and vertical extent of the zones. A demonstrated diversity of factors controlling the route of macroplastic through a fluvial system requires a broader, transdisciplinary perspective including humans who not only dispose plastic, but are also affected by it both physically and aesthetically, and who may remove it from rivers.

How to cite: Liro, M., van Emmerik, T., Wyżga, B., Liro, J., and Mikuś, P.: Macroplastic storage and remobilization in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7641, 2021.

EGU21-15887 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Riverine transport of floating macro litter to the Southeastern Black Sea

Ülgen Aytan, Çağan Şenyiğit, Yasemen Şentürk, and Başak Esensoy

Marine litter, especially plastic, is the fastest growing environmental problem in the Black Sea. Rivers are recognized as the major sources of litter in the basin, but information on the transport of litter by rivers is still limited. This study presents the first estimates of riverine floating macro-litter in the SE Black Sea (Turkey), based on monthly visual counting in three relatively small rivers between January and August of 2020. Plastic represented 99 % of the identified items with fragments (2.5–50 cm) (40.3 %) and shopping bags (26.2 %) being the most abundant items. Riverine litter fluxes median values varied between 35 and 96 items/hour in three rivers. Results show that small rivers can carry a considerable amount of plastic to the SE Black Sea. This calls for increased monitoring of riverine litter transport to develop effective prevention and removal strategies for tackling the problem of plastic pollution in the Black Sea.

How to cite: Aytan, Ü., Şenyiğit, Ç., Şentürk, Y., and Esensoy, B.: Riverine transport of floating macro litter to the Southeastern Black Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15887, 2021.

EGU21-7858 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

The Trash Tracker: A Macroplastic Fate and Transport Model at River Basin Scale

Yvette Mellink, Tim van Emmerik, Charlotte Laufkötter, Merel Kooi, and Helge Niemann

Plastic pollution in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is of growing global concern due to its negative impact on environmental health and human livelihood. Most plastic research to date focused on observing and modelling plastic in the oceans, revealing that the highest plastic concentrations are found in the five ocean gyres (“the garbage patches”). Plastic waste originating from land has been identified as the main source of marine plastic debris. Yet it remains highly uncertain which processes control the mobilisation and transport of plastic waste over land to rivers and eventually to the ocean. Here, we introduce the Trash Tracker, a numerical model to forecast the pathways and fate of plastic waste in terrestrial and freshwater systems. In this model, the plastic transporting agents, wind and surface runoff, are resisted by the friction of the terrain. The terrain resistance, a function of the surface slope and the type of land use, is translated to thresholds that define the critical wind and surface runoff conditions required to mobilise and transport macroplastics. By repeatedly checking whether the wind and/or surface runoff conditions are strong enough to overcome their respective thresholds, the Trash Tracker simulates the transport of plastics and allows us to identify accumulation hotspots and high probability transport routes of plastic waste within river basins. This makes the Trash Tracker a practical tool for preventing, mitigating and reducing plastic pollution in the natural environment.

How to cite: Mellink, Y., van Emmerik, T., Laufkötter, C., Kooi, M., and Niemann, H.: The Trash Tracker: A Macroplastic Fate and Transport Model at River Basin Scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7858, 2021.

EGU21-6088 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Use of environmental management data for mass flow estimations of plastic debris in rivers: The Seine River and The Huveaune River, France.

Romain Tramoy, Johnny Gasperi, Eric Blin, Isabelle Poitou, and Bruno Tassin

Methods to quantify plastic transport in rivers have greatly improved during the past few years. As a first approach, visual counting is currently the simplest way to assess plastic transport with minimal effort and cost. It usually results in underestimations of plastic input into the sea of about one to two order of magnitude when compared to models such as the Jambeck’s approach. The latter shows statistical weaknesses and data availability issues leading to large uncertainties, while visual counting miss the water column compartment and often has a low spatiotemporal representativeness. In order to give another ground-truth estimation of plastic transport able to challenge both models and visual counting, we developed innovative methods based on environmental management data in the Seine estuary (500 m3/s) and the Huveaune River ( 2 m3/s; Marseille, France). First, we used data from institutional cleaning in the Seine estuary that consist in litter collection on riverbanks. Their efficiency was measured based on capture-recapture design. Mass flows of plastic debris were then calculated based on the capture rate over one year, the estimation of the fraction of plastic debris which are never collected (hidden or too small) and the assumption that all plastic debris strand on riverbanks. Second, we used data from bar screens spaced of 3 cm in the Huveaune, a small urban river flowing in Marseille, South France. All the water column is screened, and captured waste are automatically collected in dumpsters. Grab sampling were performed after a dry, a wet and a flood period. The corresponding annual mass flows of plastic debris was then calculated relative to the mean fraction of time corresponding to those hydrological periods over 2017 and 2018. Annual mass flows of plastic debris were normalized to the population in both basins. Although methods were different, mass flows of plastic debris per capita are very similar with 8.5 – 13.6 g/cap/yr for the Seine River and 2.4 – 14.9 g/cap/yr for the Huveaune River. This is one to two order of magnitude lower than the Jambeck’s approach. However, when focusing on the fraction ending into the Sea, bar screens in Marseille enable to decrease the mass flow of plastic debris of about one additional order of magnitude, while cleaning of riverbanks decreases it of about 10%. This is related to the nature of the rivers that calls for different solutions, screening the whole Seine River being a tricky idea. Nevertheless, when normalized to water volume, the Huveaune River is visually much more polluted (16.4–102.2 mg/m3) than the Seine estuary (9.0–14.5 mg/m3). In conclusion, environmental management data can help to estimate mass flows of plastic debris and calls for better consideration. However, they often need an improved scientific framework.

How to cite: Tramoy, R., Gasperi, J., Blin, E., Poitou, I., and Tassin, B.: Use of environmental management data for mass flow estimations of plastic debris in rivers: The Seine River and The Huveaune River, France., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6088, 2021.

EGU21-13848 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Identifying global hotspots of plastic waste accumulation along river networks

Jesus Gomez-Velez and Stefan Krause

Global plastic pollution is affecting ecosystems and human health globally. Proposing solutions and coping strategies for this threat requires a clear understanding of the processes controlling the fate and transport of mismanaged plastics at multiple scales, going from watersheds to regions and even continents. River corridors are the primary conveyor and trap for mismanaged plastic produced within the landscape and eventually released to the ocean. New approaches that apply technological sensing innovations for monitoring plastic waste in aquatic environments can improve observations and plastic waste datasets globally. However, our understanding of when, where, and how to target monitoring is limited, reducing the benefit gained. There is therefore a critical demand for predictions of hotspots (as well as hot moments) of plastic accumulation along river networks globally, in order to optimize observational capacity.     

Here, we present a new global flow and transport model for plastic waste in riverine environments. Our model predicts that only a small fraction (roughly 2.5%) of the global mismanaged plastic that entered rivers since the 1950s has been delivered to the ocean by 2020, with an overwhelming majority sequestered in freshwater ecosystems. Furthermore, we predict the patterns of mismanaged plastic accumulation and its residence time depend on (i) the topology and geometry of the river network, (ii) the relative location of plastic sources, and (ii) the relative location and trapping efficiency of flow regulation structures, primarily large dams. Our results highlight the role of rivers as major sinks for plastic waste and the need for targeted remedial strategies that consider the structure of the river network and anthropogenic regulation when proposing intervention measures and sampling efforts.

How to cite: Gomez-Velez, J. and Krause, S.: Identifying global hotspots of plastic waste accumulation along river networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13848, 2021.

EGU21-16041 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Environmental monitoring of riverine plastic contamination in Asia

Marianne Olsen, Rachel Hurley, Nina Buenaventura, David Eidsvoll, Hans Fredrik Braaten, Yan Lin, Eirik Steindal, Luca Nizetto, and Thorjørn Larssen

Rivers have been identified as an important pathway for the release of plastic waste to the oceans, connecting land-based sources to the marine environment. Asian rivers, in particular, have been highlighted by several published studies as contributing a considerable proportion of global macro- and microplastic release. To evaluate this, several parallel projects (ASEANO, SINOPLAST, INOPOL) have commenced environmental monitoring of riverine plastic contamination in China, India, and several ASEAN countries. Monitoring is being undertaken in selected study catchments, which have been identified based on their geographical context and their relevance to global plastic contamination. They include several rivers that have been reported as being amongst the most contaminating systems in the world. Macroplastic flows in the active river channel will be assessed, as well as the role of the riverbank zone in the storage and transport of plastic waste. Monitoring of riverine microplastic contamination will also be included in some countries. The aims of this environmental monitoring is to: i) provide estimates for the flux of plastics to the ocean; ii) identify appropriate and optimum methods for routine monitoring of riverine plastic contamination; iii) supply qualitative and quantitative data on macroplastic flows and contamination to support social science research that is also taking place within these river catchments; and iv) provide data for the calibration and validation of riverine plastic transport models.

This presentation will give an overview of monitoring plans and preliminary findings and experiences from these ongoing projects. This will include a discussion about the ways in which monitoring methods have been adapted to river systems with different morphologies and flow regimes, and to satisfy different research questions across the projects. The complexities associated with undertaking environmental monitoring in large river systems will also be addressed.

How to cite: Olsen, M., Hurley, R., Buenaventura, N., Eidsvoll, D., Braaten, H. F., Lin, Y., Steindal, E., Nizetto, L., and Larssen, T.: Environmental monitoring of riverine plastic contamination in Asia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16041, 2021.

EGU21-649 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

The MARINA-Plastic model: Global river export of macro- and microplastics from over 10,000 sub-basins to coastal seas

Maryna Strokal, Paul Vriend, Jikke van Wijnen, Carolien Kroeze, and Tim van Emmerik

Plastics are found in different sizes in many rivers and coastal waters worldwide. Our understanding of the sources of this plastic is poor. Quantitative, and spatially explicit data on plastic loads is needed to design effective plastic pollution reduction strategies. One way to gather such data is through modeling studies. To this end, we develop the MARINA-Plastic model for macro- and microplastic. The MARINA-Plastic model quantifies annual river export of macro- and microplastic by source from sub-basins to coastal waters of the world. The model runs for over 10,000 sub-basins and considers point (e.g., sewage systems) and diffuse (e.g., mismanaged solid waste on land) sources of plastics in rivers. We evaluate and validate the model using a “building trust” approach. Evaluation results indicate the robustness of the model performance.

Results of the MARINA-Plastic model show that approximately 10% of all sub-basins are, today, responsible for over 90% of macroplastic inputs to rivers globally. Asia and Africa are responsible for approximately 80% of the plastic export by rivers globally. Coastal waters of Asia and Africa are predominantly polluted with macroplastics from diffuse sources in terms of mass, whereas coastal waters of Europe and North America are predominantly polluted with microplastics from point sources. Middle- and downstream activities contribute largely to coastal water pollution with plastics for selected case studies. These case studies are six large rivers, of which the drainage areas are divided into up-, middle- and downstream sub-basins. These rivers are the Mississippi (North America), Amazon (South America), Danube (Europe), Niger (Africa), Nile (Africa), and the Yangtze (Asia) rivers. Our analysis shows that reducing plastic pollution in coastal waters requires improvement of the wastewater treatment in Europe and North America and solid waste management in Asia and Africa.

We show that the MARINA-Plastic model is applicable to get a better understanding of the sources and the spatial variability of the plastic pollution in rivers and coastal waters. The model allows to analyse the impact of upstream activities on downstream plastic pollution and to explore effects of environmental policies on plastics in waters. This information can help to develop effective solutions for reducing future plastic pollution.

How to cite: Strokal, M., Vriend, P., van Wijnen, J., Kroeze, C., and van Emmerik, T.: The MARINA-Plastic model: Global river export of macro- and microplastics from over 10,000 sub-basins to coastal seas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-649, 2021.

EGU21-8320 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Spatio-temporal patterns in microplastic pollution of surface waters and sediments within the R. Thames (UK) and its tributaries

Karolina Skalska, Annie Ockelford, James E. Ebdon, and Andrew B. Cundy

It is currently predicted that rivers deliver as much as 80% of plastic waste into the marine environment, including microplastics (MP) <5 mm in size. Yet, the transfer mechanisms of MP in river systems remain poorly understood. While high flow events are thought to flush more microplastics into marine waters, their overall load may depend on factors such as river morphology, land-use, or local MP sources.

Microplastic concentrations were monitored on a seasonal basis (summer 2019 - winter 2020/2021) across 13 sites located across the R. Thames catchment, UK. Sites were selected to include rural, urban and industrial locations with different hydrological characteristics and proximities to potential MP inputs (e.g. sewage or industrial effluents). At each site, bed sediment samples were manually extracted (n=55 samples), and surface water samples collected in 5 L clean polyethylene bottles (n=22 samples) and using a 500-µm plankton net (n=12 samples). Microplastics were extracted from sediment and plankton net samples using density flotation, whilst bulk water samples were filtered with no prior extraction steps. All samples were visually inspected under a stereomicroscope and their morphology recorded. The chemical composition is to be further investigated using µFTIR as part of future research.

Sediment and water samples likely contained MP from different sources (e.g. in-situ breakdown of plastic litter, sewage effluent), which was reflected in the varying MP shapes and loads observed at the study sites. Microplastic levels ranged from <LoD (limit of detection) to 381 MP·100 g-1 in sediments, <LoD to 16 MP ·L-1 in bulk water samples and <LoD to 2 MP·m-3 in plankton net samples and were highest at sites downstream of known sewage inputs. There was also a clear variation in particle shapes and levels with respect to site, with fibres and fragments representing the dominant MP type present along urban river stretches, and microbeads most abundant near industrial locations.

Microplastic levels varied on a temporal basis in both surface waters and sediments. Increasing river discharge generally had a diluting effect on MP levels observed in the water column (mean levels of 5 MP·L-1 and 2 MP·L-1 in summer 2019 and winter 2020, respectively). Mean microplastic levels in sediments also decreased from 15.1 MP·100 g-1 in the summer to 9.4 MP·100 g-1 in the winter, although some local increases in microplastic pollution were observed during high flow period, particularly at sites situated in close proximity to reported sewage discharges (e.g. from Combined Sewer Overflows).

This study is one of the first few to report spatio-temporal variations in microplastic contamination of both river water and sediments. Our early findings suggest that variability in MP levels and composition in both media may correspond to local pollution sources, and plastic particles could be released from surface sediments during periods of increased precipitation, even in the absence of flooding. Understanding such patterns in MP flux will be crucial to accurately model plastic loads from terrestrial to marine environment and implement effective mitigation measures.

How to cite: Skalska, K., Ockelford, A., Ebdon, J. E., and Cundy, A. B.: Spatio-temporal patterns in microplastic pollution of surface waters and sediments within the R. Thames (UK) and its tributaries, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8320, 2021.

EGU21-8338 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Microplastics in the water of the Volga River: the results of a summer 2020 field survey

Anastasia Lisina, Maxim Platonov, Oleg Lomakov, Natalia Frolova, Alexey Sazonov, and Tatiana Shishova

In spite of the fact that present day Russia makes only a small contribution to the global industry of polymers and polymer products, their production increases steadily, which leads to a rise in the concentration of microplastics (MP) in the surface waters including rivers, where MP enters with surface runoff and waste water. 

Since the problem of microplastics pollution of freshwater bodies in Russia has not received sufficient attention, in July-August 2020 the non-profit foundation “Clean Hands, Clean Rivers” together with the Faculty of Geography of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, conducted a comprehensive hydrological and environmental survey along the entire Volga river, from its source to its mouth. It included water sampling and determination of microplastics, nutrients and heavy metals. The main hydrochemical indicators of river water were also monitored.

Water samples were taken upstream and downstream of several large cities - Tver, Nizhny Novgorod, Cheboksary, Kazan, and Volgograd. To collect water samples for MP, a specialized device "manta" with nets for filtration at 300 µm was used; further analysis of MP fragments was carried out by the method of differential scanning calorimetry.

The analysis of 34 water samples allowed us to determine the average concentration of MP in the surface water layer of the Volga river which accounted for 0.901 part./m3.

MP particles were found in all samples taken. The concentrations ranged from 0.156 to 4.100 part./m3. The maximum MP concentrations were recorded in large cities downstream of the sewage treatment plants. For Kazan, Tver, Nizhny Novgorod and Volgograd they reached 4.100,  3.769, 1.907, and 1.344 part./m3, respectively. The role of large settlements as sources of MP in the Volga water was revealed.

The minimum MP concentrations were recorded upstream of the large cities showing relatively stable levels of 0.25 part./m3. The lowest MP content (0.156 part./m3) was revealed in the downstream area of the Cheboksary reservoir near Cheboksary. The results of weighing MP particles showed that their average concentration in the Volga water is 0.212 mg/m3.

In each of the investigated samples, particles of three determined fractions - fragments, fibers and films - were found, however, their ratio was not constant. On average, the proportion of fragments and films in the Volga water was 41% and 37%, respectively, and share of fibers accounted for 22%.

How to cite: Lisina, A., Platonov, M., Lomakov, O., Frolova, N., Sazonov, A., and Shishova, T.: Microplastics in the water of the Volga River: the results of a summer 2020 field survey, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8338, 2021.

EGU21-15650 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Assessment of seasonal variability of input of microplastics from the Northern Dvina River to the Arctic ocean.

Igor Zhdanov, Alexei Lokhov, Artem Belesov, Alexander Kozhevnikov, Svetlana Pakhomova, Anfisa Berezina, and Evgeniy Yakushev

The flowing into the White Sea Northern Dvina River is the largest river in the European Arctic, and in contrast to other Arctic rivers, it runs through the populated regions with developed industry. Observations on seasonal variability of microplastics were organized in the Northern Dvina River mouth. The samples were collected every month from September to November 2019 and from May to October 2020 with a Neuston net that was togged 3 nautical miles in the Korbel’nyy Branch of the River delta. Surface plastic with dimensions ranging from 0.5 to 5 mm was analyzed. Chemical composition of the plastic particles was determined using an FT-IR spectrometery in Norway (Oslo) and Russia (Arkhangelsk). The majority of the microplastics were identified as polyethylene (PE) 52.63%, followed by polypropylene (PP) 36.84% and Ethylene Ethyl Acrylate Copolymer (EEA) 10.53%.  It was found that the average concentration of microplastics was 0.0054 items/m3, that is close to the average concentration of surface microplastics observed in the in the open Barents Sea, 0.005 items/m3 (Yakushev et al. 2021). No detectable seasonal variability of the microplastics content in the waters of the Northern Dvina was found. With an assumption that the concentration of microplastics is the same in all the depths, we can assess how the amount of delivering to the sea microplastics changes throughout the year. The microplastics input rate during the spring flood period in May turned out to be maximum, 37.76 items/second. The minimum input rate can be in September with a value of to 5.28 items/second. The data obtained allow us to conclude that the Northern Dvina River is be one of the main sources of microplastic pollution of the White and Barents Seas. This work was partly funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment project RUS-19/0001 “Establish regional capacity to measure and model the distribution and input of microplastics to the Barents Sea from rivers and currents (ESCIMO)” and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, research projects 19-55-80004.

How to cite: Zhdanov, I., Lokhov, A., Belesov, A., Kozhevnikov, A., Pakhomova, S., Berezina, A., and Yakushev, E.: Assessment of seasonal variability of input of microplastics from the Northern Dvina River to the Arctic ocean., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15650, 2021.

EGU21-8925 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Investigating microplastic behaviour in a well-mixed estuary

Nia Jones, Simon Neill, Peter Robins, and Matthew Lewis

Rivers and estuaries act as conduits of microplastic transport, linking terrestrial and marine environments: however, it is unclear to what extent estuaries act as sources or sinks for marine plastic waste. In densely populated catchments, microplastic pollution could impact human populations and natural ecosystems including through industry, domestic activities or direct exposure. An investigation into the physical behaviour of microplastic within estuarine systems will allow for a greater understanding of plastic retention and exportation to coastal and offshore environments. A high resolution 3D model (Delft D-Flow FM) of the Conwy Estuary (UK) is under development, with current and future projections of microplastic concentrations used to determine local exposure levels, residence times and temporal variability.

The Conwy Estuary (UK) is a well-mixed macro-tidal, embayment type system connecting the Conwy catchment to the North Wales coast and Irish Sea – where waters are used for leisure and aquaculture. Microplastics derived from the catchment population, industry and agriculture are thought to flow into the estuary primarily from the Conwy river network. Because of this, this study will incorporate in-situ samples of microplastic concentrations in river water to be able to predict microplastic levels in the estuary with greater accuracy. Plastic dispersal simulations through particle tracking and water quality monitoring will be undertaken using known concentrations and future projections of microplastic.

The results of the model validation as well as application to plastic dispersal simulations will be presented.

How to cite: Jones, N., Neill, S., Robins, P., and Lewis, M.: Investigating microplastic behaviour in a well-mixed estuary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8925, 2021.

Twenty rivers have been estimated previously to account for almost 70% of global plastic emissions to the marine environment. Of these, the Ganges River was second only to the Yangtze River. Yet, scale and complexity of the Ganges River network make assessing microplastic contamination along the watercourse, including the attribution of suspected pollution sources challenging. Here we analyse post-monsoon spatial variation of microplastics along a 2500km length of the Ganges. River sediments and surface water were sampled during Nov/Dec 2019 at 81 locations that covered a variety of hydrological conditions, morphological attributes and land-use categories (e.g., downstream of large urban areas, rural areas with agriculture, major tributaries). Sediment samples were collected from the riverbank (waterline) and stored in glass jars while 100L water samples were filtered on-site through a 63µm sieve. Plastic particles between 63 and 5000µm were extracted by means of density separation followed by organic matter digestion with Fenton reagent. Extracts were subsequently stained with Nile red to improve detection of ambiguous particles. Physical and chemical properties such as shape, size, and polymer type where characterised using Fluorescence microscopy, Confocal Raman, and FT-IR imaging to understand differences along the river continuum. Our findings were analysed in relation to other key water quality parameters, various land-use descriptors and hydrogeomorphological characteristics, which allowed us to better understand the main drivers of microplastic transport and fate. Our survey results reveal an increasing downstream trend in sediment microplastic concentrations. The existence of distinct microplastic pollution hotspots in areas of high population density as well as areas of high cultural and spiritual relevance are detected. Interestingly, longitudinal concentration profiles in sediment and surface water samples do not match, hinting at differences in source attributions as well as transport, accumulation and long-term storage mechanisms, which is especially important in light of the variations seen in microplastic shape and size distribution patterns. Our results can be used as a springboard for future research assessing local microplastic contamination and aid in the refinement of medium and large-scale models estimating microplastic export.

How to cite: Nel, H. and the Team SAPTANADI: Sediment and surface water microplastic contamination along the Ganges River, from the Himalayan foothills to the tidal reach downstream of Kolkata, India., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13000, 2021.

EGU21-16036 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Source to Sea – Investigation of Microplastics in an agricultural catchment in Eastern England

Gertruda Zieniute, Daniel Magnone, and Mark Macklin

Global plastic demand has led to a growing abundance of microplastics being detected across all environmental compartments. These microplastics pose a long-term health risk to ecosystems through accumulation, ingestion and leaching of chemicals. Knowledge of microplastics in river catchments has been limited due to their complexity, however as microplastics have a terrestrial origin, freshwater systems are considered to be a key pathway to other environments. They can transport microplastics to marine environments, act as temporary and long-term storage and aid degradation of larger plastics into smaller fragments that enter the aquatic system.

As microplastics are linked to anthropogenic sources, much of the focus has been placed on urban and industrial areas, but in this study, we aim to assess a rural, agricultural catchment. River Witham catchment in Eastern England covers the area of 3,000km2 with a population of ~400,000. The river provides important drainage for the high-grade agricultural land in the fens and it discharges into the Wash, which is England’s largest nature reserve as well as an important area for shellfish aquaculture.

This presentation will address the preliminary findings of this project by detailing the spatial variability of microplastics storage in riverbed sediments in an agricultural catchment. Data suggests that microplastic concentration could be as high in rural areas as it is in urban areas. The findings are expected to help improve the knowledge of microplastic contamination on a catchment level and to act as a basis for regional environmental protection.

How to cite: Zieniute, G., Magnone, D., and Macklin, M.: Source to Sea – Investigation of Microplastics in an agricultural catchment in Eastern England, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16036, 2021.

EGU21-7975 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Microplastics from the Sources to Sinks: Assessment of Microplastics in the River Freshwater Environments and Wastewater Treatment Plants

A H M Enamul Kabir, Masahiko Sekine, Tsuyoshi Imai, Koichi Yamamoto, Ariyo Kanno, and Takaya Higuchi

Freshwater microplastics pollution has been a recent focus. River freshwater microplastics pollution are vital towards freshwater ecosystems as well as have been the prominent source-to-sink conduits to export MPs into the marine realm. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have been identified as one of the major point-sources. To date, sources-to-sinks comprehensive knowledge are highly limited. This study explored sources-to-sinks microplastics pollution i.e., WWTPs-to-river-to-marine comprehensively. The two rivers i.e., Koya River (KR) and Nishiki River (NR) which are flowing to the Seto Inland Sea (SIS) and the WWTPs effluent samples were collected from selected (n=37) stations in the Yamaguchi prefecture, Japan. Filtration, wet peroxidation, and density separation methods were employed to extract microplastics particles. Polymers were identified via attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The average microplastics abundances were found KR—82.25±67.84 n/L and NR—38.73±24.13 n/L for the river water, and KRWWTPs—79.5±3.5 n/L and NRWWTPs—72.25±23.64 n/L for WWTPs effluents, respectively. The KR were found to be more polluted than the NR. WWTPs effluents were found posing higher abundances than rivers. Significantly higher microplastics concentration were found in the WWTPs downstream stations than other river stations. Characterization revealed that small MPs (<1000 µm) in size, fibers in shape, polymers— polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, vinylon were major in both of the WWTPs effluents and rivers. WWTPs influenced river environments by means both of the abundances and microplastics characteristics (shapes-size-polymers). The estimated source-to-sink emission demonstrated a substantial number of MPs discharge into the rivers by the WWTPs (0.007—0.086 billion/day) and rivers-to-SIS marine environments (1.15—7.951 billion/day). The emission represented that the WWTPs were the prominent point-source to cause river microplastics pollution. Rivers were the initial sinks of the Japan land-sourced microplastics and prominent pathways to emit microplastics to the ultimate marine sink i.e., SIS. Large amounts of MPs are being generated on land sources before the plastics wastes degrade into MPs secondarily. The pollution characteristics (shapes-sizes-polymers) indicated ecotoxicological threats to these rivers and the downstream environments. Overall, this study provided an insight of sources-to-sinks pollution, fulfilled the preliminary knowledge gaps of pollution occurring land-sources, fate and loadings. We recommended microplastics pollution control at source. This study will aid in developing microplastics pollution control and management strategies for environmental protection and sustainability in the regional Japan as well as global context upon “thinking globally and acting locally”.

Keywords: Abundance, Point-source, Source-to-sink, Riverine microplastics pollution, Wastewater treatment plants

How to cite: Kabir, A. H. M. E., Sekine, M., Imai, T., Yamamoto, K., Kanno, A., and Higuchi, T.: Microplastics from the Sources to Sinks: Assessment of Microplastics in the River Freshwater Environments and Wastewater Treatment Plants, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7975, 2021.

EGU21-12985 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Occurrence of microplastics at Wastewater Treatment Plants in the Guadalete-Barbate river basin (Cadiz, Spain).

Ana Amelia Franco del Pino, Gemma Albendín, Juana María Arellano, Ágata Egea-Corbacho Lopera, Ana Pilar Martín García, Rocío Rodríguez, José María Quiroga, and Dolores Coello

The increase in microplastics (MPs) research has aroused awareness about their presence and polluting potential in aquatic environments. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have been identified as one of the main paths for these pollutants to reach the environment. The present study is focussed in the WWTPs emplaced within the Guadalete-Barbate river basin. This geographical area comprises a total of 60 WWTPs treatment plants with an inhabitant equivalent (IE) above 250. Within these 60 wastewater treatment plants, there are 38 plants with conventional treatments and an estimated population of over 800,000. The high percentage of population that lives in this basin leads us to think about the quantity of microplastics that are dumped into the environment daily. Therefore, the aim of this research is to study the occurrence and identify the type of microplastics in these facilities, this information is important in order to design treatments that improve microplastics removal and avoid their entrance in the aquatic environment.

How to cite: Franco del Pino, A. A., Albendín, G., Arellano, J. M., Egea-Corbacho Lopera, Á., Martín García, A. P., Rodríguez, R., Quiroga, J. M., and Coello, D.: Occurrence of microplastics at Wastewater Treatment Plants in the Guadalete-Barbate river basin (Cadiz, Spain)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12985, 2021.

EGU21-2533 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Analytical methods for detection and size determination of micro- and nanoscale plastic debris in water

Milica Velimirovic, Jef De Wit, Griet Jacobs, Eduardo Bolea-Fernandez, Ana Rua-Ibarz, Stefan Voorspoels, Kristof Tirez, and Frank Vanhaecke

Development of analytical methods for the characterization (particle size determination, chemical identification, and quantification) of the low µm-range microplastic (MPs; 1-10 µm) and nanoscale plastic (NPs; 1-1000 nm) debris in environmental matrices is a quickly emerging scientific field and has gained considerable attention, not only within the scientific community, but also on the part of policy makers and the general public. However, due to the limited sensitivity of the current state of the art monitoring techniques, detection of MPs and NPs in water is one of the biggest challenges for their monitoring, source identification and, ultimately, risk assessment.

As it is evident that no single method will provide all the information required for a complete characterization of MPs and NPs in water, the present work is aimed to give an overview of different complementary analytical methodologies showing considerable promise for the particle size determination, chemical identification, and quantification of MPs and NPs [1]. In addition, results of three case studies will be included to adequately address the smallest fractions in plastic debris size determination, making such approaches worthwhile to be further explored.

The first case study offers a novel method based on the use of inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry operated in single-event mode and relies on our previous work where for the first time ever single particle inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry based on carbon monitoring was successfully used for the detection, particle size characterization and particle number concentration of polystyrene MPs [2]. The second case study further explore light scattering methods, including nanoparticle tracking analysis or dynamic light scattering, for MPs and NPs particle size distribution and particle number in water. Finally, the capabilities of size exclusion chromatography in combination with online detection techniques such as UV-visible absorption spectrometry will be presented for the particle size determination of smallest fraction of NPs (1-100 nm).

 

M.V. is a senior postdoctoral fellow of the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO 12ZD120N).

 

References

[1] Velimirovic M., Tirez K., Voorspoels S., Vanhaecke F. (2020) Recent developments in mass spectrometry for the characterization of micro- and nanoscale plastic debris in the environment, Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry, 1-9.

[2] Bolea-Fernandez E., Rua-Ibarz A., Velimirovic M., Tirez K., and Vanhaecke F. (2020) Detection of microplastics using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) operated in single-event mode. Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry 35, 455-460.

How to cite: Velimirovic, M., De Wit, J., Jacobs, G., Bolea-Fernandez, E., Rua-Ibarz, A., Voorspoels, S., Tirez, K., and Vanhaecke, F.: Analytical methods for detection and size determination of micro- and nanoscale plastic debris in water, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2533, 2021.

EGU21-14944 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Enhancing the harmonisation, QA/QC, and application of riverine macroplastic monitoring data

Rachel Hurley, Marianne Olsen, David Pettersen Eidsvoll, Nina Buenaventura, Asle Økelsrud, Luca Nizzetto, Hans Fredrik Veiteberg Braaten, Yan Lin, Eirik Hovland Steindal, and Thorjørn Larssen

Several guidelines have been developed that describe methods for analysing riverine macroplastic flows. No single method has emerged as the standard approach for sampling plastic waste in rivers. This reflects the difficulty in establishing a global ‘one size fits all’ approach for river systems: there is significant variability in river morphology, hydrology, and geomorphology across the world and these differences necessitate adaptations of existing methods or the development of new approaches to assess macroplastic flows. In addition, there is a wide range of different potential objectives underpinning the monitoring of riverine macroplastic contamination, including assessments of plastic export, sources, transport, or accumulation. These generate different research questions, which require different solutions, and may necessitate the collection of data in different forms.

Nevertheless, there is an international demand for generating monitoring datasets that are comparable and can be used to create a holistic picture of macroplastic contamination across the globe. For the reasons listed above, harmonisation – through thorough method validation and quality assurance and control (QA/QC) – is likely to be more important than standardisation in this context. Additionally, in some cases there remains a disconnect between the types of data that are produced in monitoring activities and those which are desired by potential end users of the data. It is valuable, therefore, to increase the communicability of datasets and establish a common language for riverine macroplastic contamination. This study undertakes a critical review of existing methodologies for assessing macroplastic flows in river systems and identifies: i) what component of the macroplastic load is measured by each technique; ii) how can these methods be validated; iii) what QA/QC procedures could be implemented to increase the quality, robustness, and harmonisation of monitoring outputs; and iv) how can outputs be tailored to different uses of monitoring data.

How to cite: Hurley, R., Olsen, M., Pettersen Eidsvoll, D., Buenaventura, N., Økelsrud, A., Nizzetto, L., Veiteberg Braaten, H. F., Lin, Y., Hovland Steindal, E., and Larssen, T.: Enhancing the harmonisation, QA/QC, and application of riverine macroplastic monitoring data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14944, 2021.

EGU21-3710 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Biofilm-induced sinking of buoyant microplastics in a freshwater environment

Patricia Semcesen and Mathew Wells

The degree of microplastic dispersal and retention in lakes and oceans critically depends upon the microplastic particle’s density, which can change over time due to microbial growth (biofilm). This experiment tests the mechanism by which initially buoyant microplastics can be lost from the surface layers of a lake and become deposited in sediments. While buoyant microplastics do initially float in water, the growth of biofilm denser than water on the microplastic surface leads to an increase in particle density as a whole. This increase in density results in slower rise velocities of biofouled particles when they are mixed into the water column, and can even lead to sinking of biofouled particles. Both slower rise velocities and particle sinking would increase microplastic residence time in the water body. Through ex-situ experiments on irregularly-shaped polypropylene microplastic granules in an emulated lake environment under overcast light levels, we have found that biofouling alone is sufficient to increase microplastic particle density and lead to sinking for small particles (~125-212 µm) in 18 days and larger particles (1000-2000 µm) in 50 days. These differences in settling onset time would likely lead to size-fractionation of particle sedimentation, where smaller particles are deposited closer to their sources relative to larger particles. Using the measured values of biofilm-induced sinking rates of larger microplastics (1000-2000 µm) and lake residence times, we can describe the fraction of microplastics expected to become deposited after they enter lakes. Our results on terminal velocity change inherent to biofouling provide new information for microplastic transport modelling.

How to cite: Semcesen, P. and Wells, M.: Biofilm-induced sinking of buoyant microplastics in a freshwater environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3710, 2021.

EGU21-601 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Controls of bio-modulated flocculation on the fate of microplastic pollution in river-estuary transition zones

Freija Mendrik, Roberto Fernández, Christopher Hackney, Catherine Waller, Robert Dorrell, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, and Daniel Parsons

Plastic fragments floating on the surface of oceans represent less than 1% of plastic pollution entering these environments annually, with the fate of the remaining plastics largely unknown. There are several removal mechanisms that have been suggested for microplastics (<5mm) including ingestion by biota, biofouling and/or aggregation with organic material leading to flocculation and a change in particle density that can impact trajectory and fate of the material. Furthermore, despite the widespread recognition that rivers dominate the global flux of plastics to the ocean, there is a key knowledge gap regarding the behaviour of microplastics in transport and its pathways from rivers into the coastal zone, especially in regards to how biofilm formation and aggregation influence particle fate. This prevents progress in understanding microplastic dynamics and identifying zones of high accumulation, as well as curtailing the evolution of effective mitigation and policy measures. To predict transport, fate and biological interactions of microplastics in aquatic environments at a global scale, the factors that control these processes must be identified and understood.

A laboratory settling experiment was therefore conducted to recognise how different factors, including salinity, suspended sediment and biofilm formation influence microplastic particle settling velocities, and thus transport. The results presented herein explore the role of biofilms on the generation of microplastic flocs and the impact on buoyancy and settling velocities. Six different polymers were tested and compared including fragments and fibres. Settling velocities were then combined with field flow data from the Mekong River, one of the top global contributors to marine plastic pollution, allowing predictions of areas of microplastic fallout and hotspots. The results also highlight potential areas of ecological risk related to the dispersal and distribution of microplastics across the river-delta-coast system including the ecologically important Tonle Sap Lake. Future work involves further aligned fieldwork within the Mekong River that details the particulate flux and transport of microplastics throughout the vertical velocity profile.

How to cite: Mendrik, F., Fernández, R., Hackney, C., Waller, C., Dorrell, R., Vasilopoulos, G., and Parsons, D.: Controls of bio-modulated flocculation on the fate of microplastic pollution in river-estuary transition zones, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-601, 2021.

EGU21-14789 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.4

Quantifying microplastic particle transport and retention in an experimental flume environment

Jan-Pascal Boos, Benjamin Gilfedder, and Sven Frei

Rivers and streams are the dominant transport vectors for microplastic (MP) input into marine environments. During transport, complex physicochemical interactions between particles, water and river sediments influence particle mobility and retention. The specific transport mechanisms of MP in fluvial systems are not yet fully understood, and the main reason lies in the limitation in reliable data derived from experimental analysis.

In our subproject of the ‘CRC 1357 Microplastics’, we investigate the hydrodynamic mechanisms that control the transport and retention behavior of MP in open channel flows and streambed sediments. In an experimental flume environment, we create realistic hydrodynamic and hyporheic flow conditions by using various porous media (e.g. glass beads or sand) and bedform structures (e.g. riffle-pool sequences, ripples and dunes), modelled from real stream systems.

The method developed here can quantitatively analyze the transport of pore-scale particles (1-40 µm) based on fluorometric techniques. Particle velocity distributions and particle transport are measured using Particle-Image-Velocimetry and Laser-Doppler-Velocimetry. With our setup, we can quantitatively investigate time-resolved MP transport and retention through the aqueous and solid phase in a flume scale experiment.

How to cite: Boos, J.-P., Gilfedder, B., and Frei, S.: Quantifying microplastic particle transport and retention in an experimental flume environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14789, 2021.

HS2.3.5 – Fate and transport processes of pathogens and emerging contaminants at multiple scales, and water quality assessments with remote sensing

In recent years, we have conducted research into developing new pathogen surrogates and synthetic DNA tracers for water applications. Biomolecule-modified particles have been used to mimic Cryptosporidium, rotavirus and adenovirus with respect to their filtration removal and transport in porous media. Additionally, we have developed new DNA tracers as free DNA molecules or DNA-encapsulated biopolymer microparticles to track water contamination. DNA markers are also used to label some surrogates to facilitate their sensitive detection by using qPCR.

The surrogates have been validated in laboratory conditions alongside the actual pathogens. The Cryptosporidium surrogates have been satisfactorily validated in alluvial sand, in limestone sand, in coagulation and rapid sand filtration studies. The rotavirus surrogates have been successfully validated in coastal sand aquifer media, in unmodified and hydrophobically modified quartz sand, and in stony alluvial soils under on-site wastewater applications. The research findings have demonstrated that these new surrogates significantly outperform the most commonly used existing surrogates, namely, unmodified microspheres for Cryptosporidium oocysts and MS2 phage for viruses. Working with the water industry, we have applied the Cryptosporidium surrogate to pilot-scale rapid sand filters and point-of-use domestic filters and determined its removal efficiencies in water filtration systems commonly used in New Zealand. The artificial DNA tracers have been validated in surface water, groundwater and soils, and they were readily trackable in a surface stream for up to 1 km.

Our proof-of-concept studies suggest that the new pathogen surrogates and synthetic DNA tracers we have developed show great promise as new tools for water applications. The ‘micro mimics’ approach has opened up a new avenue for assessing pathogen removal and transport in water systems without the risk and expense that accompany work with actual pathogens. With further validation, the new surrogates could be used to study pathogen removal and transport in subsurface media after the disposal of effluent and biosolids to land, and to assess the performance of filtration processes in water and wastewater treatment. With future up-scaling validation of the new synthetic DNA tracers, these tracers could be useful for concurrently tracking multiple pollution sources and pathways in freshwater environments.

How to cite: Pang, L.: Development of new pathogen surrogates and synthetic DNA tracers for water applications, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6583, 2021.

EGU21-6109 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Temporal stability of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes levels across irrigation water types

Seongyun Kim, Yakov Pachepsky, Chanelle White, Megan Gerdes, Rachel Goldstein, Amy Sapkota, Shirley Micallef, Kali Kniel, Salina Parveen, Fawzy Hashem, and Manan Sharma

Enteric bacterial pathogens in irrigation water can be a public health and food safety issue when contaminating produce. Microbial water quality varies depending on the location and type of water source. We hypothesis temporally stable spatial patterns in levels of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes exist in individual water sources in the same region. To test this hypothesis, samples were collected from six water sources in the mid-Atlantic U.S over two years, twice every month during growing season (May to September) and once a month during non-growing seasons (October to April). The sampling sites represented four rivers and two ponds. Several environmental covariates (conductivity, ORP, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, cumulative rainfall for one and seven day prior to sampling dates) were measured in conjunction with quantitative pathogen recovery. Temporal stability was quantified by computing the mean relative difference (MRD) of pathogen levels from the average across the monitoring location at the same sampling dates. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient between each pathogen level on successive sampling dates was calculated. Levels of both pathogens at each location demonstrated temporally stable spatial patterns. The overall MRD values of pathogens in river water were higher than MRD values of pathogens in pond water. The MRD values for S. enterica were similar to the MRD values of cumulative 7-day rainfall. An inverse relationship between the MRD values of L. monocytogenes and water temperature were found.  The Spearman rank correlation for both pathogens indicated moderate to strong relationship between consecutive sampling events in approximately 80% of cases. These can be used to improve regional monitoring of microbial quality of irrigation water.

How to cite: Kim, S., Pachepsky, Y., White, C., Gerdes, M., Goldstein, R., Sapkota, A., Micallef, S., Kniel, K., Parveen, S., Hashem, F., and Sharma, M.: Temporal stability of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes levels across irrigation water types, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6109, 2021.

EGU21-6395 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Estimating phytoplankton species populations in irrigation ponds from drone-based imagery and in situ water quality sensing and sampling

Jaclyn E. Smith, Billie J. Griffith, Matthew D. Stocker, Moon S. Kim, and Yakov A. Pachepsky

Phytoplankton is known to affect freshwater habitats of pathogenic and indicator organisms in irrigation water sources. Cyanobacteria are associated with producing harmful toxins which can be transferred to crops, and the gene transfer between phytoplankton and pathogens is of interest particularly in connection with the antibiotic resistance in microorganisms. The objective of this work was to evaluate the possibilities of estimating phytoplankton populations in irrigation ponds by using separate and combined in situ water quality sensing/sampling and sUAS imagery. The study was conducted during a 5-month summer-early fall period at a working irrigation pond on Maryland’s Eastern shore, USA. In situ physical, biochemical, and nutrient measurements were taken at 34 locations in the pond with a total of 21 parameters. Phytoplankton species were enumerated using a modified Ütermohl method and then grouped into green algae, diatoms, and cyanobacteria. The imagery was obtained from an altitude of 120 meters using three modified GoPro cameras and a MicaSense camera. It was then clipped to represent the area around locations of sensing/sampling. The measured parameters were grouped into physical, biochemical, nutrient, and imagery datasets as inputs. Various combinations of these inputs constituted 17 different datasets used with machine learning algorithms. The target variables were the three groups of phytoplankton and the proportion of cyanobacteria in the total count of observed phytoplankton cells. The regression tree (RT) algorithm was applied to research the structure of the dataset and to determine the major influential variables. The random forest (RF) algorithm was applied to estimate the target variables for each of the 15 total datasets. With the RT analysis, nutrient concentrations appear to be influential for green algae and cyanobacteria proportion. After the nutrients were added to the physical and biochemical parameters in the RT analysis for these specific variables, the R2 went from 0.782 to 0.869 and from 0.678 to 0.758, respectively. The imagery alone provided moderate RT accuracy for green algae (R2=0.661) and cyanobacteria (R2=0.586), but less for diatoms (R2=0.483). The RT analysis provided good estimates for green algae with the R2 of 0.756 but was not efficient for diatoms (avg. R2=0.524), cyanobacteria (avg. R2=0.284), nor the proportion of cyanobacteria (avg. R2=0.524). In the random forest study, the most important predictors for green algae and cyanobacterial proportion were nutrient concentrations of potassium and calcium, respectively. MicaSense imagery at the red edge and near-infrared parts of the spectrum were among the most important predictors. The drone-based imagery provided information useful for the estimation and prediction of green algae. Influential input variables were different amongst phytoplankton groups. For the 17 input datasets, the overall accuracy increased in the sequence imagery < physical < biochemical < nutrient water quality parameters as inputs.  

How to cite: Smith, J. E., Griffith, B. J., Stocker, M. D., Kim, M. S., and Pachepsky, Y. A.: Estimating phytoplankton species populations in irrigation ponds from drone-based imagery and in situ water quality sensing and sampling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6395, 2021.

EGU21-4294 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Modelling the fate and transport of microbial pathogens during floods and rainfall events in an alluvial wetland area supported by microbial source tracking

Julia Derx, Rita Linke, Katalin Demeter, Jürgen Komma, Silvia Cervero-Aragó, Jack Schijven, Regina Sommer, Julia Walochnik, Alexander K. T. Kirschner, Gabrielle Stalder, Alfred Paul Blaschke, and Andreas H. Farnleitner

Alluvial wetlands are important natural habitats and contain valuable drinking water resources. The transport of pathogens via the inflows of river water or the release and runoff from animal faecal deposits into the backwater bodies can pose health risks. The aim of this study was to develop a combined modelling approach for predicting the concentrations and loads of protozoan reference pathogens during floods and rainfall events in an alluvial wetland river. The probabilistic-deterministic model QMRAcatch (v 1.1 python backwater) was newly adapted to account for short-time variations in the flow and microbial transport of alluvial wetlands. The wetland discharge rates, together with the inundated volumes and areas served as input to the model. The latter were determined by means of regression analysis based on results of a 2D hydrodynamic flow model during a flood event. To evaluate the model performance of QMRAcatch, we used concentrations of human, ruminant, pig and bird associated microbial faecal source tracking (MST) markers and E. coli measured in the Danube and in the wetland river from 2010 to 2015. The microbial die-off / degradation was identified to be the most relevant optimization parameter. To obtain this parameter, we conducted a literature survey on the degradation of MST markers in water environments, determined confidence limits of the temperature-dependent rate coefficients, and adjusted them within these limits during the optimization. Scenarios of the different transport pathways of Cryptosporidium and Giardia into the wetland bodies during floods and rainfall events were then simulated. The scenarios showed that the highest loads of Cryptosporidium and Giardia were transported via the main river into the wetland during high flows, followed by the rainfall-induced release from animal faecal deposits, and the resuspension in flooded areas. The combined modelling approach is useful to support the drinking water safety management of alluvial wetlands.

Funding source: This work was supported by the Vienna Science and Technology Fund (WWTF) [grant number ESR17-070] and by the European Union and Vienna Water [programme number LE07-13, project name ‘Groundwater Resource Systems Vienna’].

How to cite: Derx, J., Linke, R., Demeter, K., Komma, J., Cervero-Aragó, S., Schijven, J., Sommer, R., Walochnik, J., Kirschner, A. K. T., Stalder, G., Blaschke, A. P., and Farnleitner, A. H.: Modelling the fate and transport of microbial pathogens during floods and rainfall events in an alluvial wetland area supported by microbial source tracking, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4294, 2021.

EGU21-6655 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Spatiotemporal variability of E. coli concentrations in two irrigation ponds

Matthew Stocker, Robert Hill, Moon Kim, and Yakov Pachepsky

Escherichia coli is the most commonly assessed indicator of fecal contamination. The presence of elevated levels of E. coli is used to evaluate the microbial water quality in recreational and irrigation water sources.  E. coli concentrations are spatially and temporally variable. Monitoring of the variability inherent in water measurements can help create and implement effective monitoring designs and solutions. The objective of this work is to determine if there exist spatial patterns that are stable in time over years of observations. Two irrigation ponds in Maryland USA were monitored for three years during the growing seasons (June to August). Water samples and in situ measurements were collected in the same 47 locations biweekly for three years. The presence of stable spatial patterns was researched for relative differences between the logarithm of concentrations in specific locations and the average logarithm across the pond for each of observation times. The mean of these relative differences (MRD) over the observation period formed consistent spatial patterns. We found stable patterns of locations across the pond and found higher MRD values near the banks than the pond interiors.  MRDs computed for separate years were more variable and had amplitudes different from the overall average MRD over the three years, although the similarities between patterns across years was apparent. 

How to cite: Stocker, M., Hill, R., Kim, M., and Pachepsky, Y.: Spatiotemporal variability of E. coli concentrations in two irrigation ponds, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6655, 2021.

EGU21-3577 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Flood and rainfall mobilisation of E. coli and faecal source tracking markers from decomposing cowpats 

Megan Devane, Brent Gilpin, Jennifer Webster-Brown, Louise Weaver, Pierre Dupont, and David Wood

The intensification of dairy farming on the agricultural landscape in New Zealand has raised concerns about pollution sources from dairy faecal runoff into waterways. The transport of faecal pollution from farms into waterways is facilitated by overland flow, which can result from rain and flood events, poorly designed irrigation practices and the washing down of milking sheds.

An important step for mitigation of pollution is the identification of the source(s) of faecal contamination. When elevated levels of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) such as Escherichia coli are identified in a waterway, faecal source tracking (FST) tools such as microbial source tracking (MST) using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and faecal steroids (for example, cholesterol) provide information about the sources of faecal contamination. The understanding of the fate (degradation/persistence) and transport of these FST markers in the environment is recognised as an important requirement for the interpretation of water quality monitoring in aquatic environments.

This study investigated the effects of faecal decomposition on bovine faecal indicators (E. coli and FST markers: bovine-associated qPCR markers and ten faecal steroids) by monitoring the effect of flood and rainfall events on simulated cowpats over a five and a half month period under field conditions. Two separate spring/summer trials were conducted to evaluate: Trial 1) the mobilisation under simulated flood conditions of the faecal indicators from irrigated versus non-irrigated cowpats, Trial 2) the mobilisation of faecal indicators from non-irrigated cowpat flood runoff versus runoff after simulated rainfall onto non-irrigated cowpats.

The microbial community changes within the decomposing cowpat (as illustrated by amplicon-based metagenomic analysis) were expected to impact on the survival/persistence of the bacterial targets of the MST markers, and also alter the ratio between faecal sterols and their biodegradation products, the stanols. It was hypothesised, therefore, that there would be:

  • Changes over time in the concentration of E. coli and the bovine-associated MST markers mobilised into the cowpat runoff
  • Alterations in the FST ratio signature of the ten measured faecal steroids, resulting in a change from a bovine faecal steroid signature in fresh cowpat runoff to other animal faecal signatures in the runoff from decomposing cowpats
  • A difference in the mobilisation decline rates of all FST and microbial markers within a treatment regime and between treatments.

Linear regression analysis was undertaken to establish mobilisation decline rates for each of the analytes in the mobilisable phase from the cowpat runoff treatments, with calculation of the time taken in days for reduction in 90% of the concentration (T90), and statistical comparison of the regression coefficients (slopes) of all analytes. The results will include a discussion of the impacts of the study’s observations on the interpretation of faecal indicator assessments for water quality monitoring in waterways influenced by sources of faecal contamination.

How to cite: Devane, M., Gilpin, B., Webster-Brown, J., Weaver, L., Dupont, P., and Wood, D.: Flood and rainfall mobilisation of E. coli and faecal source tracking markers from decomposing cowpats , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3577, 2021.

EGU21-1301 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Pathogen persistence in fine particle standing stocks in an intermittent urban stream

Jen Drummond, José Gonçalves, Tomás Aquino, Susana Bernal, Esperança Gacia, Ion Gutierrez-Aguirre, Valentina Turk, Maja Ravnikar, Stefan Krause, and Eugènia Martí

Rivers transport pathogenic microorganisms (including fecal indicator bacteria and human enteric viruses) from point and non-point sources over long distances, posing a direct risk for human health. Yet, pathogens in surface waters can be deposited and transitorily immobilized and accumulated together with other fine particles in streambed sediments, mostly within the top few centimeters. These dynamic fine particle standing stocks retain and delay downstream transmission of pathogens during baseflow conditions, but contribute to their resuspension and transport downstream during stormflow events. Direct measurements of pathogen accumulation in streambed sediments are rare. Further, it is unknown whether pathogen accumulation is constrained near to the point source inputs or if the continuous deposition and resuspension of pathogens results in the transmission of active pathogens further downstream. 

In this study, we analyze fine particle standing stocks along a 1 km reach of an intermittent Mediterranean stream receiving inputs from the effluent of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), during a summer drought when the effluent constituted 100% of the stream flow, and thus, large accumulation and persistence of pathogens along the streambed was expected. We measured abundance of total bacteria, Escherichia coli (as a fecal indicator bacteria), and presence of enteric rotavirus (RoV) and norovirus (NoV). We also monitored environmental variables such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total benthic particulate matter, and fraction of organic matter.  Abundance of E. coli, based on qPCR detection, was high  (~ 1 ng/μL) along the first 100 m downstream of the WWTP effluent input, and we found trace amounts of RoV and NoV.  Furthermore, E. coli was present along the first km downstream of the WWTP effluent input with a logarithmic decline in concentration with distance. These results were combined with a particle tracking model that uses stream water velocity as an input and accounts for hyporheic exchange, pathogen immobilization, degradation and resuspension during baseflow and stormflow conditions.  Model results indicate that even at very low flows (<20 L/s), pathogens can be transported over long distances (> 1km), but that the extent of longitudinal transport varies among pathogen types.  These results demonstrate that benthic standing stocks of fine particles act as hot spots of pathogen accumulation in streams, and that the interplay between immobilization, degradation, the extent of resuspension and downstream transport during storms and time between storms determine pathogen concentrations in the streambed. 

 

How to cite: Drummond, J., Gonçalves, J., Aquino, T., Bernal, S., Gacia, E., Gutierrez-Aguirre, I., Turk, V., Ravnikar, M., Krause, S., and Martí, E.: Pathogen persistence in fine particle standing stocks in an intermittent urban stream, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1301, 2021.

EGU21-10526 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Modeling the fate, transport and risk of Bisphenol A and N, N-diethyltoluamide in a tropical reservoir

Xuneng Tong, Jingjie Zhang, Luhua You, and Karina Yew-Hoong Gin

The fate and transport of emerging contaminants in aquatic environments is a complex process, which is not only determined by their own properties but can also be influenced by the surrounding environment. In this study, a comprehensive modelling framework coupling a 3D hydrodynamic--emerging contaminants module was developed to describe the fate and transport of two representative emerging contaminants, namely Bisphenol A (BPA) and N, N-diethyltoluamide (DEET) in a tropical reservoir. First, the model was calibrated and validated with BPA and DEET obtained from a historical dataset (2013-2014) in bulk water, suspended solids, pore water and sediments phase. Results revealed that the simulation performance gave “excellent simulation” results with skill scores all larger than 0.90. Subsequently, the ecological risk assessment for the reservoir was conducted using the trophic state index (TSI) and coupled species sensitivity distribution (SSD)-Risk Quotient (RQ) method. The RQ values of the study area ranged from 0.003-0.068 (BPA) and 0.001-0.014 (DEET), respectively, which suggests that the levels of studied compounds BPA and DEET may pose low risk to the aquatic ecosystem. Finally, the indirect influence of general water quality parameters such as nutrients (phosphorous) on the multi-compartment distributions of emerging contaminants was explored. Our approach lays down a comprehensive framework to better understand the dynamics of fate and transport and their potential ecological risks of emerging contaminants as well as the indirect impact of other water quality parameters on their distributions in different phases in aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Tong, X., Zhang, J., You, L., and Gin, K. Y.-H.: Modeling the fate, transport and risk of Bisphenol A and N, N-diethyltoluamide in a tropical reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10526, 2021.

EGU21-14863 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Microbiological requirements for safe drinking water production at a large river impacted by human wastewater: a scenario analysis

Katalin Demeter, Julia Derx, Jürgen Komma, Juraj Parajka, Jack Schijven, Regina Sommer, Silvia Cervero-Aragó, Gerhard Lindner, Christa M. Zoufal-Hruza, Rita Linke, Domenico Savio, Simone K. Ixenmaier, Alexander K.T. Kirschner, Harald Kromp, Alfred P. Blaschke, and Andreas H. Farnleitner

Background: Rivers are important sources for drinking water supply, however, they are often impacted by wastewater discharges from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and combined sewer overflows (CSO). Reduction of the faecal pollution burden is possible through enhanced wastewater treatment or prevention of CSOs. Few methodological efforts have been made so far to investigate how these measures would affect the long-term treatment requirements for microbiologically safe drinking water supply under future changes.

Objectives: This study aimed to apply a new integrative approach to decipher the interplay between the effects of future changes and wastewater management measures on the required treatment of river water to produce safe drinking water. We investigated scenarios of climate change and population growth, in combination with different wastewater management scenarios (i.e., no upgrades and upgrades at WWTPs, CSOs, and both). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate this interplay. We focussed on the viral index pathogens norovirus and enterovirus and made a cross-comparison with a bacterial and a protozoan reference pathogen (Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium).

Methods: We significantly extended QMRAcatch (v1.0 Python), a probabilistic-deterministic model that combines virus fate and transport modelling in the river with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). To investigate the impact of climatic changes, we used a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model and regional climate model outputs to simulate river discharges for the period 2035 – 2049. We assumed that population growth leads to a corresponding increase in WWTP discharges. QMRAcatch was successfully calibrated and validated based on a four-year dataset of a human-associated genetic MST marker and enterovirus. The study site was the Danube in Vienna, Austria.

Results: In the reference scenario, approx. 98% of the enterovirus and norovirus loads at the study site (median: 1010 and 1013 N/d) originated from WWTP effluent, while the remainder was via CSO events. The required log reduction value (LRV) to produce safe drinking water was 6.3 and 8.4 log10 for enterovirus and norovirus. Future changes in population size, river flows and CSO events did not affect these treatment requirements, and neither did the prevention of CSOs. In contrast, in the scenario of enhanced wastewater treatment, which showed lower LRVs by 2.0 and 1.3 log10, climate-change-driven increases in CSO events had a considerable impact on the treatment requirements, as they affected the main pollution source. Preventing CSOs and installing enhanced treatment at the WWTPs together had the most significant positive effect with a reduction of LRVs by 3.9 and 3.8 log10 compared to the reference scenario.

Conclusions: The integrative modelling approach was successfully realised. The simultaneous consideration of source apportionment and concentrations of the reference pathogens were found crucial to understand the interplay among the effects of climate change, population growth and pollution control measures. The approach was demonstrated for a study site representing a large river impacted by WWTP and CSO discharges, but is applicable at other sites to support long term water safety planning.

How to cite: Demeter, K., Derx, J., Komma, J., Parajka, J., Schijven, J., Sommer, R., Cervero-Aragó, S., Lindner, G., Zoufal-Hruza, C. M., Linke, R., Savio, D., Ixenmaier, S. K., Kirschner, A. K. T., Kromp, H., Blaschke, A. P., and Farnleitner, A. H.: Microbiological requirements for safe drinking water production at a large river impacted by human wastewater: a scenario analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14863, 2021.

EGU21-8501 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Testing PFAS Immobilization

Thomas Bierbaum, Juergen Braun, Norbert Klaas, Claus Haslauer, Frank Thomas Lange, Gudrun Nuerenberg, and Marco Scheurer

In the region Rastatt/Baden-Baden in the Upper Rhine Valley, Germany, approximately 1000 ha of predominantly agricultural land has been contaminated with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) about one decade ago when paper-fiber biosolids mixed with compost was applied. These substances affect various land uses (agriculture, open pit gravel quarries, and urban planning) and the underlying aquifer as the main drinking water resource for surrounding cities and municipalities.

Remediation attempts have been limited to date, particularly due to the large spatial extent of the contamination and the related high costs. One strategy currently being investigated is to immobilize the PFASs in the soil in-situ. Substances with a high sorption capacity would be applied on the ground surface and mixed with the soil. The then altered soil should still fulfill its original purpose (e.g., for agriculture). Another strategy could be to remove the contaminated soil and use it for construction (e.g., noise protection embankment) after treatment with the immobilization agents.

The purpose of this research is to develop a test strategy to evaluate the long-term leaching characteristics of soil treated with substances to increase its sorption capacity. Treated soil is tested on three different scales (batch experiments, column experiments, lysimeters) and under different saturation conditions (saturated, variably saturated). Effluent concentrations are monitored over time with different analytical methods (target analysis, determination of sum parameters (EOF/AOF), Total Oxidizable Precursor Assay (TOP)). Mathematical models are employed to evaluate the appropriateness of various processes (e.g., equilibrium sorption) and the leaching behavior for time scales larger than possible in laboratory experiments.

A special challenge for both the analytical strategy and the numerical modeling poses the fact that PFASs consist of a more than 4700 compounds (according to OECD), from which currently only about 20 usually are quantified in routine analysis. A number of these analytical targets are breakdown products, derived from larger precursors by microbial activity, which makes the source term undefined.

The current data illustrate significant reductions in PFAS desorption rates in some of the treated soils. In comparison to the control material (N-1), eluate concentrations in a treated soil (R-1) are found to be lowered by a factor of 1000. The desorbed PFAS mass in the column experiment with R-1 is less than 4%, relative to N-1. In the lysimeter experiments (variably saturated), delayed increasing eluate concentrations indicate additional processes (source term).

The measured and modelled time-series of effluent concentrations serve as the basis for a simple and cost-effective method for the experimental testing of immobilization measures for PFASs.

How to cite: Bierbaum, T., Braun, J., Klaas, N., Haslauer, C., Lange, F. T., Nuerenberg, G., and Scheurer, M.: Testing PFAS Immobilization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8501, 2021.

EGU21-16567 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Microbial removal rate efficiencies measured for coral sand  

Lee F. Burbery, Bronwyn Humphries, Louise Weaver, and Jan Gregor

Coral sand forms the surficial geology on many coral cay and low-lying atolls, such as are located throughout the Pacific region. Shallow groundwater hosted within such sand is the main source of freshwater for many island communities. It is critically at risk from the impacts of climate-change and anthropogenic stresses. A United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal is to improve water access and sanitation issues in such environs. Working towards that goal, we have conducted a set of laboratory column experiments to obtain some initial measures of microbial removal efficiencies for coral sand substrate from the Pacific atoll of South Tarawa, Kiribati.  

In one experiment we attempted to mimic physio-chemical conditions at the Bonriki Freshwater Reserve that supplies most of the water on South Tarawa. Three small plastic columns were packed with very poorly sorted gravelly coral sand sampled from the reserve. The effective transport of Escherichia coli J6-2 and MS2 bacteriophage through the packed columns was evaluated under saturated flow conditions.

In a second experiment we conducted infiltration tests on naturally well-sorted coral sand, sourced from Bikenibeu beach, South Tarawa. We perceive such sand has potential to be used in the construction of effluent drainage fields from septic tank systems in use on South Tarawa, where currently there are no established design criteria. The sand was packed to a depth of 400 mm in triplicate glass column apparatus. It was conditioned by dosing with septic tank effluent twice per day for 27 days (8 mm head each event). Effluent spiked with bacterial and viral indicator organisms: Escherichia coli J6-2, Enterococci faecalis and MS2 bacteriophage, as well as the viral pathogens: adenovirus, echovirus, norovirus and rotavirus was then dripped on to the columns, as a 35 mm application. Any resulting drainage from the base of the columns was collected and analysed, and the depth profile of the tracer organisms was examined in the sand columns by destructive sampling.

The very poorly sorted coral substrate from Bonriki Reserve proved very effective at attenuating Escherichia coli J6-2 under saturated flow conditions. We estimated a spatial removal rate of 0.05 ± 0.02 log10 cm-1 for this bacterial tracer. No removal rate could be quantified for the viral indicator. Although overall, our observations suggest the coral sand was significantly less effective at attenuating MS2 bacteriophage than it was at attenuating Escherichia coli J6-2.

In the unsaturated column experiments made on beach sand conditioned with effluent, all the microorganisms examined demonstrated >4-log removal values. Contrary to our finding from the saturated sand column experiment made with material from Bonriki Reserve, the conditioned coral beach sand filters demonstrated higher affinity for MS2 bacteriophage (also viruses) than they did Escherichia coli J6-2, or Enterococci faecalis.

How to cite: Burbery, L. F., Humphries, B., Weaver, L., and Gregor, J.: Microbial removal rate efficiencies measured for coral sand  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16567, 2021.

EGU21-16095 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Upscaling Subsurface Transport from the Column to the Field: A Focus on the Meso-Scale

Margaret Stevenson, Thomas Oudega, Gerhard Lindner, Andreas Scheidl, Alexander Eder, Peter Strauss, and Alfred Paul Blaschke

Upscaling groundwater transport from the column scale to the field scale is relevant because field tests with various tracers are often too expensive or not permissible, due to public health or environmental concerns.  Therefore, when testing chemical or pathogenic tracers, work is often done using small scale columns in the laboratory and results are extrapolated to the field. Several studies compare tracer transport in small-scale columns to tests in the field, but there is yet to be a study that compares groundwater transport using a meso-scale as well. Within a framework of upscaling, three scales are considered: small laboratory columns (0.1 m scale), a large intact core (1 m scale), and a real-world gravel aquifer (10 m scale).  The small column is filled with gravel material taken from boreholes at the field site, which is close to Vienna, Austria.  The meso-scale consists of an undisturbed gravel column, which was taken from a gravel pit near Neuhofen an der Ybbs, Austria. It was found that scale effects observed may be due to heterogeneity at the macropore scale versus preferential flowpaths at the meso-scale and field scale. Additionally, differences may be observed due to the small columns being repacked with aquifer material and the large column and field site being “undisturbed”.  The meso-scale column allows us to gain insight into the upscaling processes by incorporating an in-between step when comparing groundwater transport at the column to the field scale.

How to cite: Stevenson, M., Oudega, T., Lindner, G., Scheidl, A., Eder, A., Strauss, P., and Blaschke, A. P.: Upscaling Subsurface Transport from the Column to the Field: A Focus on the Meso-Scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16095, 2021.

EGU21-2515 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Upscaling transport of Bacillus subtilis endospores and phiX174 coliphages in heterogeneous porous media from the column to the field scale

Thomas Oudega, Gerhard Lindner, Julia Derx, Andreas Farnleitner, Regina Sommer, Alfred Blaschke, and Margaret Stevenson

Groundwater contamination and subsequent transport of viruses and bacteria are a major concern in aquifers worldwide. To ascertain the ability of these aquifers to remove pathogens, tracer tests with microbial indicators are carried out. But because these tests are laborious and require special permission, column tests are often done instead. Unfortunately, results from column tests tend to grossly overestimate removal rates λ when compared to the field scale, which can lead to underestimations of groundwater contamination risks. Scale is an important consideration when examining pathogen transport through porous media, as pathogen removal rarely happens by linear processes. Field tests were carried out with Bacillus subtilis endospores and phiX174 coliphages over a distance of 25 m in an alluvial gravel aquifer in Vienna, Austria. The sandy gravel material from the field site was also used in column tests with the same tracers. Both attachment-detachment and Colloid Filtration Theory were used to model these tests. The results show a big difference in removal between the two scales. A comparison with the literature showed a correlation between the heterogeneity (or preferential flow) of the porous media and the difference in removal rates between the column and field scale.

How to cite: Oudega, T., Lindner, G., Derx, J., Farnleitner, A., Sommer, R., Blaschke, A., and Stevenson, M.: Upscaling transport of Bacillus subtilis endospores and phiX174 coliphages in heterogeneous porous media from the column to the field scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2515, 2021.

EGU21-16566 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Studying the transport and retention of naturally occurring microplastics (MPs) in sandy soils using column experiments

Ahmad Ameen, Margaret Stevenson, and Alfred Paul Blaschke

In the 1950’s, plastics were introduced as a miracle material and since then it has revolutionised human society in almost every domain of our daily life. The benefits of plastics are countless but their inherent resistance to degradation has ultimately led to their accumulation in the environment in the form of micro and nano plastics. In recent years, the presence of microplastics (MP) in fresh water sources has raised questions related to the protection of drinking water. In Austria, the exact status of groundwater contamination by MP is unknown. To understand the behaviour of MP that are present in the environment, a study was conducted to investigate the transport and distribution of MP in groundwater using column experiments.

Polyethylene MP were produced from 3D fluorescent printing material using a milling technique and in a well-defined size range of 1-200 μm. A borosilicate glass column (1.5 cm diameter and 10 cm long) was used as our experimental setup. The columns were packed with quartz and coarse sand. A layer of homogenized MP-sand mixture (approximately 3 to 5% w/w) was applied at the top of a soil column. The transport behaviour of MP were analysed in terms of various physical and chemical factors like MP-concentration, soil particle size, inflow rate, ionic strength and straining effect. The outflow from the column was collected at different pore volume intervals and analysed for the presence of MP. The breakthrough curves (BTCs) were obtained by measuring the MP concentrations of the effluent.

How to cite: Ameen, A., Stevenson, M., and Blaschke, A. P.: Studying the transport and retention of naturally occurring microplastics (MPs) in sandy soils using column experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16566, 2021.

EGU21-26 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Role of viruses in biosphere

Valentin Sapunov

Presented work is synthesis of both literature data and own efforts on study of virus transduction and demography models. The aim would be considering of viruses and other sub-cell organisms as needful part of life on Earth basing on fundamental biology and ecology. It is important to understand the negative consequences for humanity and the biosphere of extreme outbreaks of dangerous viruses (Spanish flu, AIDS, etc.). Viruses were discovered by the Russian scientist D. Ivanovsky in 1892 and named "filtering virus". Having the size of a molecule, it passes freely through filters and masks. In the early twentieth century, the Russian scientist V. Vernadsky predicted the existence of a single information field of the biosphere. In 60-s of XX century was opened to the genetic code, which was uniform in all organisms (G. Korana, etc.). 70-ies the phenomenon of "horizontal transfer," i.e., transferability of information among all living organisms on the planet without a sexual process (B. McClintock, M. Golubovsky, etc.) was discovered. Some viruses (e.g. T4) are the most studied organisms on Earth due to its relative simplicity. The number of virus types is not estimated, but can be measured in millions. The number of virus individuals on the planet is estimated at 1039. Viruses are a necessary part of the biosphere. They create a "biological Internet" in which the information unity of organisms is ensured by the constant transfer of DNA sections between all organisms due to vires transduction. Viral epidemics are an example of co-evolution of higher and lower organisms. It temporarily reduces the number of individual species (for example, the number of people during the Spanish flu decreased by 17 million), but never threatens the existence of a particular species. Just as the medical fight against viruses reduces their population, but does not completely destroy them. The human immune system and the virus gene pool are also in a state of co-evolution. The temporary reduction in the number of the host organism of the virus is further compensated by increased immunity and a rise in the birth rate. Viruses activate the immune system of both individuals and humanity as a whole. Man needs them just as small wars are needed to maintain the combat capability of armies. Forecast of negative and positive consequences of virus reproduction is possible basing of modern mathematical ecology and genetics.

How to cite: Sapunov, V.: Role of viruses in biosphere, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-26, 2021.

EGU21-2960 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5 | Highlight

Global assessment of antibiotics in river systems using a high-resolution contaminant fate model

Heloisa Ehalt Macedo, Jim Nicell, Bernhard Lehner, Usman Khan, and Günther Grill

Recent studies have brought to attention how residual antibiotics from domestic, agricultural and industrial wastes have been found in alarming quantities in the world’s rivers. Evidence is growing that significant concentrations of these substances may lead to the gradual development of drug-resistant bacteria, among many other potential impacts. Still, there is a lack of observational data in the field since these substances are not typically included in routine monitoring programs, especially in developing regions. In this work, we develop a model to estimate the emission of various antibiotics and their subsequent transport in river networks at high spatial resolution and global scale, enabling first-time estimates of the surface-water concentrations of these compounds for virtually any river in the world.

The transport in the river system is estimated using the contaminant fate module in the high-resolution, global river routing model HydroROUT. A key component of this research is the integration of three novel datasets in the modeling approach. These datasets include: (1) the average levels of consumption of antibiotics for each country in the world, which are used to estimate the release of the antibiotics in each region; (2) a global database of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs); which are used to geo-locate point sources of the contaminant discharges into river networks and (3) a global compilation of measured pharmaceutical concentrations in river reaches that is used for model validation.

The WWTP global database includes detailed information (mostly from official regional or national sources) on 58,502 individual plants such as their facility and discharge locations, population served, flow rate of wastewater discharge, and level of treatment of processed wastewaters. Being essential to spatially explicit water quality assessments, in cases where this information was not available, auxiliary datasets such as a satellite-derived population grid and a DEM-derived river network were used to estimate missing attributes.

The high resolution (500-meters) predictions of the model can be used in a variety of subsequent applications. First, the model can be used to identify specific areas in river networks where high concentrations of contaminants are expected and where field studies should be focused. Secondly, scientists and regulators can use the model to develop screening methods to inform the development of guidelines or regulations designed to minimize the risks associated with the environmental release of pharmaceuticals. Thirdly, governments and operators of wastewater treatment facilities can use the model to set appropriate treatment standards for individual wastewater treatment plants and to ensure that advanced treatment technologies, which are inherently resource-intensive, are deployed only in areas where they are needed. And, finally, wastewater treatment technology providers can use the results to drive the development and deployment of new treatment technologies with potential global markets.

How to cite: Ehalt Macedo, H., Nicell, J., Lehner, B., Khan, U., and Grill, G.: Global assessment of antibiotics in river systems using a high-resolution contaminant fate model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2960, 2021.

EGU21-5559 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5 | Highlight

The essential climate variables for lakes: exploring satellite products from global to local scale

Claudia Giardino, Gary Free, Mariano Bresciani, Monica Pinardi, Marnix Laanen, and Alessandra Cingolani

Lakes are integrators of environmental and climatic changes occurring within their contributing basins. Understanding the complex behavior of lakes in a changing environment is essential to effective water resource management and mitigation of climate change effects. The ESA CCI Lakes is a multi-disciplinary project (https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/lakes) combining expertise to exploit data to create the largest and longest possible consistent, global record of five lake climate variables: lake water level, extent, temperature, surface-leaving reflectance, and ice cover. The phase 1 version of the database covers 250 globally distributed lakes with temporal coverage, depending on parameter, ranging from 1992 up to 2019. The dataset is planned to expand to 2000 lakes in the second phase. The distribution of the dataset will be introduced over space and time. The potential of the dataset and in particular of data records on chlorophyll-a concentrations, is explored for Lake Trasimeno, a shallow eutrophic lake of central Italy which is a specific case study of the lakes CCI project included in the Long-Term Ecosystem Research (LTER) network. In situ measurements from LTER were used to evaluate satellite products as well as to complete the CCI data record. Meteo-climatic data were extracted to analyze the interrelationships between the trend in water parameters and climate factors. An in situ WISPstation sensor was also used to provide high frequency (every 15 minutes) information on chlorophyll-a and phycocyanin concentration for last two years.
We used Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Non-Parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR) techniques to analyze the data. Chlorophyll-a in Lake Trasimeno was dominated by a summer bloom consistently initiating in July and typically peaking in early September and was largely predicted by the time variable - accounting for 87% of feature importance. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was the next most important variable (4% feature importance) corroborated by NPMR and shown to be largely important during early to mid-September when a positive NAO, associated with high pressure and warm sunny weather, led to an increase in chlorophyll-a concentrations. Regional climatic indices as well as the more obvious nutrient drivers of algal blooms should therefore be considered in lake management. Comparing the high frequency WISPstation data (2018-2020) with the CCI dataset allows for detailed cross validation. Interestingly some of the rapid fluctuations visible from the satellite record that may have been interpreted as noise are supported by the in situ data. In addition, utilizing the phycocyanin results from the WISPstation showed, in near real time, how cyanophytes played a key role in the sudden increases and declines in chlorophyll-a in mid to late summer. Coupling climatic indices, nutrient concentrations and near real time phycocyanin concentrations could be indispensable to the management of blooms in high value recreational lakes such as Trasimeno.

How to cite: Giardino, C., Free, G., Bresciani, M., Pinardi, M., Laanen, M., and Cingolani, A.: The essential climate variables for lakes: exploring satellite products from global to local scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5559, 2021.

EGU21-6874 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Coupling particle tracking model and satellite data for trajectories prediction

Chaojie Li, Daniel Odermatt, Damien Bouffard, Johny Wüest, and Tamar Kohn

Various physical, chemical and biological processes take place three- dimensionally in deep lakes, regulated by complex boundary conditions. Propelled by the rapid development of equipment, technology and computational power, the understanding of deep lakes has steadily advanced. In particular hydrodynamic monitoring and simulation studies have benefitted from combining field observation, numerical simulation and other emerging techniques such as remote sensing. In contrast, water quality parameters are less well investigated by this combination of tools. In this study, we integrate remote sensing techniques with a Lagrangian particle tracking model for lake water quality simulations. Specifically, our goal was to establish a successive individual-based model for health-relevant microorganisms in Lake Geneva. To this end, we combined remote sensing images from the current Sentinel 2 and Sentinel 3 satellites and Delft3D hydrodynamic and particle tracking models. Total suspended matter (TSM), which can both be detected by satellites and simulated by numerical models, is chosen as a parameter of concern. Concentration of TSM in Lake Geneva deduced from remote sensing images is used as observation to compare with particle tracking simulation to support the validation of the numerical model. On the other hand, the model allows to bridge gaps in satellite observations due to cloud coverage. Point source releasing and lake-wide dynamic pattern of TSM are employed as scenario studies to indicate the validation of our particle tracking model, focusing on time spans between 1 to 10 days. Our findings demonstrate that remote sensing images can serve to calibrate and validate the particle tracking water quality model, and in return, the particle tracking model provides the possibilities for data inference and interpolation between satellite images. The flexibility of the Lagrangian particle tracking method poses more possibilities to incorporate flow independent movement, mortality and growth of micro-organisms. It is expected that a more universal and accurate tool for water quality simulation can be created which will facilitate decision making.

How to cite: Li, C., Odermatt, D., Bouffard, D., Wüest, J., and Kohn, T.: Coupling particle tracking model and satellite data for trajectories prediction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6874, 2021.

Anthropogenic eutrophication is a pressing global environmental problem that threatens the ecological functions of many inland freshwaters and diminishes their abilities to meet their designated uses. Water authorities worldwide are being pressed to manage the negative consequences of harmful algal blooms (HABs) based largely on data collected from conventional monitoring programs that lack the needed spatio-temporal resolution for effective lake/reservoir management. This study assesses the potential of using Sentinel 2 MSI to predict and assess the spatio-temporal variability in the water quality of the Qaraoun Reservoir, a poorly-monitored Mediterranean hypereutrophic monomictic reservoir that is subject to extensive HABs during the growing season. The performance and transferability of water quality models previously calibrated based on Landsat 7 and 8 surface reflectance to predict Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), total suspended solids (TSS), Secchi Disk Depth (SDD), and Phycocyanin (PC) levels in the reservoir are first assessed. The results showed poor transferability between Landsat and Sentinel 2, with all models experiencing a significant drop in their predictive skill. Sentinel 2 specific models were then developed for the reservoir based on 153 water quality samples collected over two years. Different model functional forms were then tested, including multiple linear regressions (MR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and support vector regressions (SVR). Our results showed that for Chl-a, the MARS model outperformed MR and SVR, with an R2 of 60%. Meanwhile, the SVR-based models outperformed their MR and MARS counterparts for TSS, SDD and PC (R2 = 59%, 94%, and 72% respectively).

How to cite: Alameddine, I. and Abbas, M.: Predicting water quality variability in a Mediterranean hypereutrophic monomictic reservoir using Sentinel-2 MSI: the importance of model functional form, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2039, 2021.

EGU21-9027 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Long-term water quality monitoring in Lake Simcoe based on the empirical method and machine learning

Bo Wang, Jinhui Huang, and Hongwei Guo

Abstract: The traditional water quality monitoring methods are time-consuming and laborious, which can only reflect the water quality status of single point scale, and have some problems such as irregular sampling time and limited sample size. Remote sensing technology provides a new idea for water quality monitoring, and the temporal resolution of MODIS is one day, which is suitable for long-term, continuous real-time large-scale monitoring of lakes. In this study, Lake Simcoe (located in Ontario, Canada) was selected as the research area. The long-term spatiotemporal changes of chlorophyll-a, transparency, total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen were analyzed by comparing the empirical method, multiple linear regression, random forest and neural network with MODIS data. Finally, the water quality condition of Lake Simcoe is evaluated. The results show that the overall retrieval results of two machine learning models are better than that of the empirical method. The optimal retrieval accuracy R² for four water quality parameters are 0.976, 0.988, 0.943, 0.995, and RMSE are 0.13μg/L, 0.3m, 0.002mg/L and 0.14mg/L, respectively. On the annual scale, the annual mean values of the four water quality parameters during the 10-year period from 2009 to 2018 were 1.37μg/L, 6.9m, 0.0112mg/L and 10.17mg/L, respectively. On the monthly scale, chlorophyll a, total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen first decreased and then increased at the time of year. The higher concentrations of chlorophyll a and total phosphorus in the south and east of Lake Simcoe are related to the input of nutrients from the surrounding residents and farmland.

Key words: water quality monitoring; MODIS; empirical method; machine learning

How to cite: Wang, B., Huang, J., and Guo, H.: Long-term water quality monitoring in Lake Simcoe based on the empirical method and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9027, 2021.

EGU21-1967 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.5

Estimating dissolved oxygen of Lake Huron at multiple spatiotemporal scales using remote sensing and machine learning

Hongwei Guo, Jinhui Huang, Xiaotong Zhu, Bo Wang, and Shang Tian

Dissolved oxygen (DO) effectively indicates the health and self-purification capacity of waterbodies. However, since DO is a non-optically active parameter and has little impact on the spectrum captured by satellite sensors, research on estimating DO by remote sensing at multiple spatiotemporal scales are limited. In this study, the support vector regression models were developed and validated using the remote sensing reflectance derived from both Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and synchronous DO measurements, water temperature and sampling coordinates of Lake Huron (N = 206) and three other inland waterbodies (N = 282) covering different latitudes. Using the developed models, spatial distributions of the annual and monthly DO since 1984 and the annual monthly DO since 2000 in Lake Huron were reconstructed for the first time. The impacts of five climate factors on DO were analyzed. Results showed that the developed models had good robustness and generalization (average R2 = 0.91, root mean square percentage error = 2.65%, mean absolute percentage error = 4.21%), and performed better than random forest and multiple linear regression. The monthly DO estimation by Landsat and MODIS data were highly consistent (average R2 = 0.88). Note that the model performance was limited for samples beyond the range of the training set. From 1984 to 2019, the oxygen loss of Lake Huron was 6.56%. The DO of Lake Huron showed obvious seasonal regularity of decreasing from spring to summer and increasing from summer to autumn. Since 2000, DO of Lake Huron has shown a decreasing trend in the same month of different years. Air temperature, incident shortwave radiation flux density and precipitation were the main climate factors affecting annual DO of Lake Huron. This study demonstrated that Landsat and MODIS data could be used for long-term DO retrieval at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As data-driven models, adding variables related to the target parameter and extending the training set to cover more water quality conditions could effectively improve model performance.

How to cite: Guo, H., Huang, J., Zhu, X., Wang, B., and Tian, S.: Estimating dissolved oxygen of Lake Huron at multiple spatiotemporal scales using remote sensing and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1967, 2021.

HS2.3.7 – Multi-dataset, multi-variable, and multi-objective techniques to improve prediction of hydrological and water quality models and their Bayesian applications

The latest generation of integrated hydrologic models provides new opportunities to better understand and hypothesize about the connections between hydrological, ecological and energy transfer processes across a range of scales. Parallel to this has been unprecedented growth in new technologies to observe components of Earth’s biophysical system through satellite remote sensing or on-the-ground instruments. However, along with growth in available data and advanced modelling platforms comes a challenge to ensure models are representative of catchment systems and are not unrealistically confident in their predictions. Many hydrologic and ecosystem variables are measured infrequently, measured with significant error, or are measured at a scale different to their representation in a model. In fact, the modelled variable of interest is frequently not directly observed but inferred from surrogate measurements. This introduces errors in model calibration that will affect whether our models are representative of the systems we seek to understand.

In recent years, Bayesian inference has emerged as a powerful tool in the environmental modeler’s toolbox, providing a convenient framework in which to model parameter and observational uncertainties. The Bayesian approach is ideal for multivariate model calibration, by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the weighting often prescribed in traditional multi-objective calibration. 

In this study, we develop a multi-objective Bayesian approach to hydrologic model inference that explicitly capitalises on a priori knowledge of observational errors to improve parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation. We introduce a novel error model, which partitions observation and model residual error according to prior knowledge of the estimated uncertainty in the calibration data. We demonstrate our approach in two case studies: an ecohydrologic model where we make use of the known uncertainty in satellite retrievals of Leaf Area Index (LAI), and a water quality model using turbidity as a proxy for Total Suspended Solids (TSS). Overall, we aim to demonstrate the need to properly account for known observational errors in proper hydrologic model calibration.

How to cite: Marshall, L.: Incorporating observational errors in multivariate hydrologic model calibration: the value in known unknowns, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10509, 2021.

EGU21-1395 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Advantages of metaheuristics for multi-dataset calibration of hydrological models

Silja Stefnisdóttir, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Eyjólfur I. Ásgeirsson, and David C. Finger

Hydrological models are crucial components in water and environmental resource management to provide simulations on streamflow, snow cover, and glacier mass balances. Effective model calibration is however challenging, especially if a multi-objective or multi-dataset calibration is necessary to generate realistic simulations of all flow components under consideration.

In this study, we explore the value of metaheuristics for multi-dataset calibration to simulate streamflow, snow cover and glacier mass balances using the HBV model in the glaciated catchment of the Rhonegletscher in Switzerland. We evaluate the performance of three metaheuristic calibration methods, i.e. Monte Carlo (MC), Simulated Annealing (SA) and Genetic Algorithms (GA), in regard to these three datasets. For all three methods, we compare the model performance using 100 best and 10 best optimized parameter sets.

Our results demonstrate that all three metaheuristic methods can generate realistic simulations of the snow cover, the glacier mass balance and the streamflow. The comparison of these three methods reveals that GA provides the most accurate simulations (with lowest confidence intervals) for all three datasets, for both 100 and 10 best simulations. However, when using all 100 simulations, GA yields also some worst solutions which are eliminated if only 10 best solutions are considered.

Based on our results we conclude that GA-based multi-dataset calibration provides more accurate and more precise simulation than MC or SA. This conclusion is fortified by a reduction of the parameter equifinality and an improvement of the Pareto frontier for GA in comparison to both other metaheuristic methods. This method should therefore lead to more reproducible and consistent hydrological simulations.

How to cite: Stefnisdóttir, S., Sikorska-Senoner, A. E., Ásgeirsson, E. I., and Finger, D. C.: Advantages of metaheuristics for multi-dataset calibration of hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1395, 2021.

EGU21-18 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Large-scale calibration of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for two-stage probabilistic hydrological post-processing

Georgia Papacharalampous, Hristos Tyralis, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, and Alberto Montanari

Probabilistic hydrological modelling methodologies often comprise two-stage post-processing schemes, thereby allowing the exploitation of the information provided by conceptual or physically-based rainfall-runoff models. They might also require issuing an ensemble of rainfall-runoff model simulations by using the rainfall-runoff model with different input data and/or different parameters. For obtaining a large number of rainfall-runoff model parameters in this regard, Bayesian schemes can be adopted; however, such schemes are accompanied by computational limitations (that are well-recognized in the literature). Therefore, in this work, we investigate the replacement of Bayesian rainfall-runoff model calibration schemes by computationally convenient non-Bayesian schemes within probabilistic hydrological modelling methodologies of the above-defined family. For our experiments, we use a methodology of this same family that is additionally characterized by the following distinguishing features: It (a) is in accordance with a theoretically consistent blueprint, (b) allows the exploitation of quantile regression algorithms (which offer larger flexibility than parametric models), and (c) has been empirically proven to harness the “wisdom of the crowd” in terms of average interval score. We also use a parsimonious conceptual rainfall-runoff model and 50-year-long monthly time series observed in 270 catchments in the United States to apply and compare 12 variants of the selected methodology. Six of these variants simulate the posterior distribution of the rainfall-runoff model parameters (conditional on the observations of a calibration period) within a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework (first category of variants), while the other six variants use a simple computationally efficient approach instead (second category of variants). Six indicative combinations of the remaining components of the probabilistic hydrological modelling methodology (i.e., its post-processing scheme and its error model) are examined, each being used in one variant from each of the above-defined categories. In this specific context, the two large-scale calibration schemes (each representing a different “modelling culture” in our tests) are compared using proper scores and large-scale benchmarking. Overall, our findings suggest that the compared “modelling cultures” can lead to mostly equally good probabilistic predictions.

How to cite: Papacharalampous, G., Tyralis, H., Koutsoyiannis, D., and Montanari, A.: Large-scale calibration of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for two-stage probabilistic hydrological post-processing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-18, 2021.

EGU21-7779 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Improvement of the simulation of high and low flows in the LSM based hydrological modeling chain SASER applied to the Ebro river basin

Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, and Luis Garrote

The SASER (Safran-Surfex-Eaudysee-Rapid) hydrological modeling chain is a physically-based and distributed hydrological model that has been implemented over two domains: Iberia and the Pyrenees. Currently, it is used for drought studies (HUMID project) and water resources analysis (PIRAGUA project).

In this modeling chain, SAFRAN provides the meteorological forcing, SURFEX is the LSM that performs the water and energy balances and Eaudyssée-RAPID simulates daily streamflow. SAFRAN and SURFEX are run at a spatial resolution of 5 km for the Iberian implementation and 2.5 km for the Pyrenean one. Daily streamflow is calculated by the RAPID river routing scheme at a spatial resolution of 1 km in both cases. SAFRAN analyzes daily observed precipitation, which is then interpolated to the hourly scale. For precipitation, relative humidity is currently used to hourly distribute the daily precipitation.

SASER is able to simulate adequate streamflow on the Ebro basin (KGE>0.5 on 62% of near-natural gauging stations when the LSM is run at 2.5 km of spatial resolution). However, due to the lack of a hydrogeological model, low flows are often poorly reproduced by this scheme. Furthermore, peak flows could also be improved.

This work aims at improving high and lows by correcting the distribution of hourly precipitation and adding linear reservoirs to improve low flows.

The increase of the spatial resolution from 5 to 2.5 km has caused a relevant improvement of peak flows. However, most of the peak flows are still underestimated. One way of improving simulated streamflow is improving the hourly distribution of the precipitation, as SAFRAN distributes precipitation through the day with unrealistic low hourly intensities. This will impact runoff generation and, thus, peak flow. We have used two ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations from the CORDEX project to improve the hourly distribution of precipitation. As a result, we now produce more realistic temporal patterns of hourly precipitation.

The current SASER implementation is not able to sustain low flows. A physical-based solution (hydrogeological model) would be desirable, but as it is difficult to implement we chose to introduce a linear reservoir, following the steps of Artinyan et al (2008) and Getinara et al. (2014). The reservoir is able to improve low flows in most near-natural subbasins. The challenge now is how to set its parameters in non-natural basins.

How to cite: Cenobio-Cruz, O., Barella-Ortiz, A., Quintana-Seguí, P., and Garrote, L.: Improvement of the simulation of high and low flows in the LSM based hydrological modeling chain SASER applied to the Ebro river basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7779, 2021.

EGU21-13244 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Learning from one’s errors: A data-driven approach for mimicking an ensemble of hydrological model residuals

John M. Quilty and Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner

Despite significant efforts to improve the calibration of hydrological models, when applied to real-world case studies, model errors (residuals) remain. These residuals impair flow estimates and can lead to unreliable design, management, and operation of water resources systems. Since these residuals are auto-correlated, they should be treated with appropriate methods that do not require limiting assumptions (e.g., that the residuals follow a Gaussian distribution).

This study introduces a novel data-driven framework to account for residuals of hydrological models. Our framework relies on a conceptual-data-driven approach (CDDA) that integrates two models, i.e., a hydrological model (HM) with a data-driven (i.e., machine learning) model (DDM), to simulate an ensemble of residuals from the HM. In the first part of the CDDA, a HM is used to generate an ensemble of streamflow simulations for different parameter sets. Afterwards, residuals associated with each simulation are computed and a DDM developed to predict the residuals. Finally, the original streamflow simulations are coupled with the DDM predictions to produce the CDDA output, an improved ensemble of streamflow simulations. The proposed CDDA is a useful approach since it respects hydrological processes via the HM and it profits from the DDM’s ability to simulate the complex (nonlinear) relationship between residuals and input variables.

To explore the utility of CDDA, we focus principally on identifying the best DDM and input variables to mimic HM residuals. For this purpose, we have explored eight different DDM variants and multiple input variables (observed precipitation, air temperature, and streamflow) at different lag times prior to the simulation day. Based on a case study involving three Swiss catchments, the proposed CDDA framework is shown to be very promising at improving ensemble streamflow simulations, reducing the mean continuous ranked probability score by 16-29 % when compared to the standalone HM. It was found that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Random Forests (RF), each using 29 input variables, were the strongest predictors of the HM residuals. However, similar performance could be achieved by selecting only the six most important (of the original 29) input variables and re-training the XGB and RF models.

Additional experimentation shows that by converting CDDA to a stochastic framework (i.e., to account for important uncertainty sources), significant gains in model performance can be achieved.

How to cite: Quilty, J. M. and Sikorska-Senoner, A. E.: Learning from one’s errors: A data-driven approach for mimicking an ensemble of hydrological model residuals, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13244, 2021.

EGU21-7138 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Value of multi-source dataset for hydrological catchment modeling 

Carolina Natel de Moura, João Marcos Carvalho, and Jan Seibert

Global meteorological and hydrological datasets have become increasingly available in the past few decades, marked by an increase in the number of large datasets, often including hundreds of catchments. These data sets bring two main advantages: the ability to perform hydrological modeling over a large number of catchments located in different hydroclimate characteristics, - which leads us to more robust hypothesis testing, and the ability to address the uncertainties related to the hydrological model input data. However, the full added value to hydrological modeling is not yet fully understood. The main questions surrounding the use of multi-source and large-scale datasets are related to how much value these datasets add to the performance of hydrological models. How different are these datasets, how accurate are they, and whether their use results in similar or rather different hydrological simulations? Other questions are how can we better combine them for improved predictions, and what is the average uncertainty of the input datasets in hydrological modeling? We aimed here to investigate better those issues using Brazilian catchments as study cases. The Brazilian hydrometeorological network has several issues to overcome, such as an undistributed spatial network resulting in data-scarce areas, a large amount of missing data, and the lack of standardized and transparent quality analysis. In this study, we used a national hydrometeorological dataset (CAMELS-BR) along with other several global forecast and reanalysis meteorological datasets, such as the CFSv2 and ECMWF, for the streamflow prediction using the data-driven model Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM). Initial results indicate that calibrating a recurrent neural network is clearly depending on the data source. Moreover, the tested global meteorological products are found to be suitable for hydrological modeling. The combination of different data sources in the hydrological model seems to be beneficial, especially in those areas where ground-level gauge stations are scarce.

How to cite: Natel de Moura, C., Carvalho, J. M., and Seibert, J.: Value of multi-source dataset for hydrological catchment modeling , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7138, 2021.

EGU21-8782 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Parameter transferability between multiple gridded input datasets challenges hydrological model performance under changing climate

Moctar Dembélé, Bettina Schaefli, and Grégoire Mariéthoz

The diversity of remotely sensed or reanalysis-based rainfall data steadily increases, which on one hand opens new perspectives for large scale hydrological modelling in data scarce regions, but on the other hand poses challenging question regarding parameter identification and transferability under multiple input datasets. This study analyzes the variability of hydrological model performance when (1) a set of parameters is transferred from the calibration input dataset to a different meteorological datasets and reversely, when (2) an input dataset is used with a parameter set, originally calibrated for a different input dataset.

The research objective is to highlight the uncertainties related to input data and the limitations of hydrological model parameter transferability across input datasets. An ensemble of 17 rainfall datasets and 6 temperature datasets from satellite and reanalysis sources (Dembélé et al., 2020), corresponding to 102 combinations of meteorological data, is used to force the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). The mHM model is calibrated for each combination of meteorological datasets, thereby resulting in 102 calibrated parameter sets, which almost all give similar model performance. Each of the 102 parameter sets is used to run the mHM model with each of the 102 input datasets, yielding 10404 scenarios to that serve for the transferability tests. The experiment is carried out for a decade from 2003 to 2012 in the large and data-scarce Volta River basin (415600 km2) in West Africa.

The results show that there is a high variability in model performance for streamflow (mean CV=105%) when the parameters are transferred from the original input dataset to other input datasets (test 1 above). Moreover, the model performance is in general lower and can drop considerably when parameters obtained under all other input datasets are transferred to a selected input dataset (test 2 above). This underlines the need for model performance evaluation when different input datasets and parameter sets than those used during calibration are used to run a model. Our results represent a first step to tackle the question of parameter transferability to climate change scenarios. An in-depth analysis of the results at a later stage will shed light on which model parameterizations might be the main source of performance variability.

Dembélé, M., Schaefli, B., van de Giesen, N., & Mariéthoz, G. (2020). Suitability of 17 rainfall and temperature gridded datasets for large-scale hydrological modelling in West Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5379-2020

How to cite: Dembélé, M., Schaefli, B., and Mariéthoz, G.: Parameter transferability between multiple gridded input datasets challenges hydrological model performance under changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8782, 2021.

EGU21-15426 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Evaluation of surface runoff model hypothesis by multi-objective calibration using discharge and sediment data

Alban de Lavenne, Göran Lindström, Johan Strömqvist, Charlotta Pers, Alena Bartosova, and Berit Arheimer

Conceptual hydrological models can move towards process-oriented modelling when addressing broader issues than flow modelling alone. For instance, water quality modelling generally requires understanding of pathways and travel times. However, conceptual modelling often relies on a calibration procedure of discharge at the outlet, which aggregates all processes at the catchment scale. As the number of parameters increases, such an approach can lead to model over-parametrisation issues. In this study we tested if adding a second kind of observation, specifically sediment data, can help distinguish surface runoff from total discharge. This new constraint relies on a hypothesis that in stream sediment concentrations are strongly influenced by surface runoff (through erosion and remobilisation). We tested our hypothesis by applying a multi-objective calibration (simulation performance on discharge and suspended sediment) to the World-Wide HYPE hydrological model (WWH) and we used this framework to evaluate new surface flow modelling routines. We gathered data for 111 catchments spread over the USA where both discharge and sediment observation were available at a daily step at locations suitable for WWH. 

Results show that in comparison to a single-objective calibration on discharge this multi-objective calibration enables a significant improvement on the simulation performance of suspended sediments without a significant impact on the performance of discharge. This illustrates the benefits of multi-objective calibration rather than using two calibrations made one after the other. In addition, this evaluation framework highlights the advantage of a new process description for surface runoff in the WWH model that relates soil moisture conditions to surface runoff ratio. The new surface runoff routine resulted in similar discharge performances as the original one but with fewer parameters, which reduce equifinality and can prevent inadequate model complexity in data-poor areas. 

How to cite: de Lavenne, A., Lindström, G., Strömqvist, J., Pers, C., Bartosova, A., and Arheimer, B.: Evaluation of surface runoff model hypothesis by multi-objective calibration using discharge and sediment data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15426, 2021.

EGU21-699 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Improving modelled long-term storage variations with standard hydrological models in data-scarce regions

Petra Hulsman, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz

In the Luangwa river basin in Zambia, the total water storage observed by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) shows an oscillating pattern, such that the annual minimum/maximum storage decreased in 2002 – 2006 after which it increased until 2010, which was again followed by a storage decrease. However, this pattern was not reproduced by a standard conceptual hydrological model. Similarly, previous studies illustrated the inability of standard conceptual hydrological models to reproduce long-term storage variations in many river basins world-wide. This study identified processes that potentially caused the observed long-term storage variations in the Luangwa basin through data analysis and model hypothesis testing. During data analysis, long-term storage variations were compared to satellite-based products for precipitation, actual evaporation, potential evaporation and NDVI observations. During model hypotheses testing, we analysed 1) four different model forcing combinations and 2) five alternative model hypotheses for groundwater export to neighbouring basins. The results indicated that the benchmark model did not reproduce the observed long-term storage variations partly due to the forcing data and partly due to the missing process of regional groundwater export. Alternative model forcing data affected the modelled annual maximum storage, whereas the annual minima improved when adapting the model structure allowing for regional groundwater export from a deeper groundwater layer. In other words, standard conceptual hydrological models can reproduce long-term storage variations when using a suitable model structure.

How to cite: Hulsman, P., Savenije, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: Improving modelled long-term storage variations with standard hydrological models in data-scarce regions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-699, 2021.

EGU21-14123 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Value of satellite-derived soil moisture data to improve the internal consistency of process-based ecohydrological models

Doris Duethmann, Aaron Smith, Lukas Kleine, Chris Soulsby, and Doerthe Tetzlaff

It is widely acknowledged that calibrating and evaluating hydrological models only against streamflow may lead to inconsistencies of internal model states and large parameter uncertainties. Soil moisture is a key variable for the energy and water balance, which affects the partitioning of solar radiation into latent and sensible heat as well as the partitioning of precipitation into direct runoff and catchment storage. In contrast to ground-based measurements, satellite-derived soil moisture (SDSM) data are widely available and new data products benefit from improved spatio-temporal resolutions. Here we use a soil water index product based on data fusion of microwave data from METOP ASCAT and Sentinel 1 CSAR for calibrating the process-based ecohydrological model EcH2O-iso in the 66 km² Demnitzer Millcreek catchment in NE Germany. Available field measurements in and close to this intensively monitored catchment include soil moisture data from 74 sensors and water stable isotopes in precipitation, stream and soil water. Water stable isotopes provide information on flow pathways, storage dynamics, and the partitioning of evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration. Accounting for water stable isotopes in the ecohydrologic model therefore provides further insights regarding the consistency of internal processes. We first compare the SDSM data to the ground-based measurements. Based on a Monte Carlo approach, we then investigate the trade-off between model performance in terms of soil moisture and streamflow. In situ soil moisture and water stable isotopes are further consulted to evaluate the internal consistency of the model. Overall, we find relatively good agreements between satellite-derived and ground based soil moisture dynamics. Preliminary results suggest that including SDSM in the model calibration can improve the simulation of internal processes, but uncertainties of the SDSM data should be accounted for. The findings of this study are relevant for reliable ecohydrological modelling in catchments that lack detailed field measurements for model evaluation.

How to cite: Duethmann, D., Smith, A., Kleine, L., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D.: Value of satellite-derived soil moisture data to improve the internal consistency of process-based ecohydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14123, 2021.

EGU21-14738 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

How to reduce uncertainties in a coupled and spatialized water quality model using data assimilation?

Emilie Rouzies, Claire Lauvernet, and Arthur Vidard

Intensive use of pesticides in agricultural catchments leads to a widespread contamination of rivers and groundwater. Pesticides applied on fields are transferred at surface and subsurface to waterbodies, resulting from the interaction of various physical processes. They are also highly influenced by landscape elements that can accelerate or slow down and dissipate water and contaminant flows. The PESHMELBA model has been developed to simulate pesticide fate on small agricultural catchments and to represent the landscape elements in an explicit way. It is characterized by a process-oriented approach and a modular structure that couples different models.

In the long run, we aim at setting up and comparing different landscape organization scenarios for decision-making support. However, before considering such operationnal use of PESHMELBA, uncertainties must be quantified and reduced. Additionally, the model is physically-based, fully-spatialized which leads to a large set of parameters that must be carefully estimated. To tackle both objectives, we set up a data assimilation framework based on satellite images and in situ data and we evaluate the potential of Ensemble Smoother for joint variable-parameter assimilation. Assimilating surface moisture images allows for direct correction of variables and parameters on the top part of the soil. However, due to the PESHMELBA structure based on a dynamic parallel code coupler (OpenPALM), the impact of such correction on other compartments and other physical processes has to be finely assessed.

In this preliminary study, a fairly simple virtual hillslope inspired from a realistic catchment is set up and data assimilation is performed on twin experiments, i.e., using virtual surface moisture images. The potential of such technique for improving the global performances of the model is scrutinized and the sensitivity to the assimilation framework (ensemble size, frequency of observations, errors, etc.) is assessed. Valuable information on the coupling functioning are obtained allowing for anticipating performances in a real case. Identified limitations of surface moisture assimilation also give precious indications about existing gaps and pave the way for multi-source data assimilation.

 

How to cite: Rouzies, E., Lauvernet, C., and Vidard, A.: How to reduce uncertainties in a coupled and spatialized water quality model using data assimilation?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14738, 2021.

EGU21-9327 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

A Mechanistic Dissolved Oxygen Modeling for Riverine Fish Kill Prevention

Jia-Ying Dai, You-Jia Chen, Gwo-Wen Hwang, and Su-Ting Cheng

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a critical factor that controls the health and survival of the aquatic life. In the lower Danshuei River of Taiwan, DO was occasionally lower than 2 mg/L leading to several fish kill events. Since 2018, the Taipei city government started to continuously monitor hourly DO and other water quality factors at sites of Cheng-Mei Bridge and Cheng-De Bridge. However, at most sites, the monitoring has been conducted once a month. To provide sufficient DO predictions for preventing the occurrence of fish kills, a mechanistic DO modeling is required. As a result, in this study, we developed a system dynamic DO modeling considering oxygen exchange between the air-water and up/downstream interfaces with instream interactions of reaeration, photosynthesis, sediment oxygen demand (SOD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), respiration, and deoxygenation using the STELLA Architect software. In the model, we used meteorological data, water quality data, and hydrological data (flow rate, cross-section area, and hydraulic depth) simulated by HEC-RAS as input data to simulate daily DO at Cheng-Mei Bridge. Field measurements ranging from 0.21 to 10.34 mg/L were used to calibrate and validate the simulation results during Jan. to Aug. 2018, and Sep. to Dec. 2018, respectively. Our simulation results appeared reasonably good accuracy, in which the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 mg/L, and the percentage root mean square error (PRMSE) ranging from 5 to 15%. Moreover, results showed that DO was most sensitive to hydrological data, deoxygenation coefficient, and reaeration coefficient such that the meteorological conditions, like temperature and wind speed, were also important variables triggering hypoxia or anoxia that caused fish kills. Consequently, to better avoid or mitigate the occurrence of fish kills, we believe this physically-based DO modeling coupled with meteorological variables will offer useful information in predicting the condition of DO along the lower Danshuei River for managers to take preventative actions.

How to cite: Dai, J.-Y., Chen, Y.-J., Hwang, G.-W., and Cheng, S.-T.: A Mechanistic Dissolved Oxygen Modeling for Riverine Fish Kill Prevention, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9327, 2021.

EGU21-2192 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Better Than Just Average: The Many Faces of Bayesian Model Weighting Methods and What They Tell Us about Multi-Model Use

Marvin Höge, Anneli Guthke, and Wolfgang Nowak

In environmental modelling it is usually the case that multiple models are plausible, e.g. for predicting a certain quantity of interest. Using model rating methods, we typically want to elicit a single best one or the optimal average of these models. However, often, such methods are not properly applied which can lead to false conclusions.

At the examples of three different Bayesian approaches to model selection or averaging (namely 1. Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging (BMS/BMA), 2. Pseudo-BMS/BMA and 3. Bayesian Stacking), we show how very similarly looking methods pursue vastly different goals and lead to deviating results for model selection or averaging.

All three yield a weighted average of predictive distributions. Yet, only Bayesian Stacking has the goal of averaging for improved predictions in the sense of an actual (optimal) model combination. The other approaches pursue the quest of finding a single best model as the ultimate goal - yet, on different premises - and use model averaging only as a preliminary stage to prevent rash model choice.

We want to foster their proper use by, first, clarifying their theoretical background and, second, contrasting their behaviors in an applied groundwater modelling task. Third, we show how the insights gained from these Bayesian methods are transferrable to other (also non-Bayesian) model rating methods and we pose general conclusions about multi-model usage based on model weighting.

 

 

How to cite: Höge, M., Guthke, A., and Nowak, W.: Better Than Just Average: The Many Faces of Bayesian Model Weighting Methods and What They Tell Us about Multi-Model Use, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2192, 2021.

Inland water bodies are variable and complex environments, which are indispensable for maintaining biodiversity and providing ecosystem services. The ecological functions of these environments are increasingly threatened by several stressors such as climate change, human activities and other natural stressors. Anthropogenic eutrophication has become one of the most pressing causes of water quality degradation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. The eutrophication process accelerates the occurrence of algal blooms, with the dominance of potentially toxic cyanobacterial species. As a result, the assessment and monitoring of change in the eutrophic status of these systems is deemed necessary for adopting efficient and adaptive water quality management plans. While conventional monitoring methods provide accurate snapshots of eutrophication metrics at discrete points, they do not provide a synoptic coverage of the status of a water body in space and time. Compared with in situ monitoring, remote sensing provides an effective method to assess the water quality dynamics of water bodies globally at a relatively high spatio-temporal resolution. Yet, the full potential of remote sensing towards assessing eutrophication in inland freshwater systems has so far remained limited by the need to develop site specific models that need extensive local calibration and validation. This constraint is associated with the poor transferability of these models between systems. In this work, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM) framework that provides a comprehensive models that can be used to predict chlorophyll-a levels, Secchi disk depth (SDD), and total suspended solids across the continental United States (US) based on Landsat 5, 7 and 8 surface reflectance data. The proposed BHM is able to assess, account, and quantify the lake, ecoregion, and trophic status variabilities. The model is developed based on the AquaSat database that contains more than 600,000 observations collected between 1984 and 2019 from lakes and reservoirs across the contiguous US. The model improved the predictions of SDD and Chlorophyll-a the most as compared to the pooled model; yet no such improvements were observed for TSS. Meanwhile, making use of the ecoregion categorization to develop the BHM structure proved to be the most advantageous.

How to cite: Abbas, M. and Alameddine, I.: A Bayesian hierarchical model for assessing the eutrophication status of inland freshwater systems in the contiguous United States from Landsat time series: the promise of a universal transferable model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2288, 2021.

EGU21-10843 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical modelling of water quality within rivers

Craig Wilkie, Surajit Ray, Marian Scott, and Claire Miller

Rivers are vital parts of the hydrosphere, providing ecosystem services and water for drinking and agriculture. However, rapid industrialisation and urbanisation globally leads to increasing pollution in many rivers. On their own, many in-river monitoring efforts in lower middle income countries do not yet provide enough information to adequately understand the general state or trends in freshwater ecosystems, presenting difficulties in efforts to mitigate water quality degradation. However, new sources of data such as satellites, drones and sondes provide better spatial and temporal coverage of the river network. This talk presents a statistical downscaling approach for the fusion of data from these different sources into a single product with improved accuracy and coverage compared to that of an individual source, through a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. The model development is motivated by the Ramganga river in northern India, a source of irrigation for crops and drinking water that supports millions of people, but suffers from heavy metal and nutrient pollution from population pressures, intensive agriculture and industries along its length, leading to water quality degradation and biodiversity loss. The work takes place as part of the Ramganga Water Data Fusion Project, funded by the UK Global Challenges Research Fund with the aim of informing work such as risk-based modelling and developing future monitoring design to improve mitigation efforts.

How to cite: Wilkie, C., Ray, S., Scott, M., and Miller, C.: Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical modelling of water quality within rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10843, 2021.

EGU21-1178 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

A probabilistic decision support tool for field level pesticide risk assessment in a small drinking water catchment on the Island of Jersey

Miriam Glendell, Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Donald Reid

Pesticides are contaminants of priority concern regulated under the EU Water Framework Directive 2000 (WFD) and its daughter Directives. Article 7 of the WFD promotes a ‘prevention-led’ approach that prioritises pollution prevention at source rather than costly drinking water treatment.

However, the effectiveness of pollution mitigation measures in catchment systems is uncertain and catchment management needs to consider local biophysical, agronomic, and social aspects. Local risk assessment and management of water contamination in drinking water catchments informed by process-based models is costly and often hindered by lack of data. Therefore, spatial risk indices have been developed to evaluate the intrinsic risk from pesticide pollution. However, these risk assessment approaches do not explicitly account for uncertainties in complex processes and their interactions. 

In this study, we developed a probabilistic decision support tool (DST) based on spatial Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to inform field-level pesticide mitigation strategies in a small drinking water catchment (3.5 km2) with limited observational data. The DST accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties, topographic connectivity, and agronomic practices; temporal variability of climatic and hydrological processes as well as uncertainties related to pesticide properties and the effectiveness of management interventions. Furthermore, the graphical nature of the BBN facilitated interactive model development and evaluation with stakeholders, while the ability to integrate diverse data sources allowed an effective use of available data.

The risk of pesticide loss via two pathways (overland flow and leaching to groundwater) was simulated for five active ingredients. Risk factors included climate and hydrology (temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, overland and subsurface flow), soil properties (texture, organic matter content, hydrological properties), topography (slope, distance to surface water/depth to groundwater), landcover and agronomic practices, pesticide properties and usage. The effectiveness of mitigation measures such as delayed pesticide application timing; 10%, 25% and 50% application rate reduction; field buffers; and presence/absence of soil pan on risk reduction were evaluated.

Sensitivity analysis identified the application rates, rainfall, and overland flow connectivity as the most important risk factors. Pesticide pollution risk from surface water runoff showed clear spatial variability across the study catchment, while groundwater leaching risk was more uniform. Combined interventions of 50% reduced pesticide application rate, management of plough pan, delayed application timing and field buffer installation reduced the probability of high-risk from overland flow in several fields.

The DST provided a probabilistic dynamic field-scale assessment of ‘critical risk areas’ of pesticide pollution in time and space and is easily transferable to neighbouring catchments.

How to cite: Glendell, M., Troldborg, M., Gagkas, Z., Vinten, A., Lilly, A., and Reid, D.: A probabilistic decision support tool for field level pesticide risk assessment in a small drinking water catchment on the Island of Jersey, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1178, 2021.

EGU21-9876 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7 | Highlight

Participatory methods for developing a Bayesian network model for simulating catchment resilience under future scenarios. 

Kerr Adams, Miriam Glendell, Marc Metzger, Rachel Helliwell, Christopher (Kit) Macleod, and Sarah Gillman

The cumulative impacts of future climatic and socio-economic change have the potential to threaten the resilience of freshwater catchments and the important socio-ecological services they provide. Working with stakeholder groups from Scottish Water (statutory corporation that provides water and sewerage services across Scotland) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (environmental regulator), we established a participatory method for developing a Bayesian Network (BN) model to simulate the resilience of the Eden catchment, in eastern Scotland, to future pressures. The Eden catchment spans approximately 319km2, arable farming is the major land use, and the catchment falls within the Strathmore, Fife and Angus Nitrate Vulnerable Zone. The participatory method involves co-developing a BN model structure by conceptually mapping land management, water resource and wastewater services.  Working with stakeholders, appropriate baseline data is identified to define and parameterise variables that represent the Eden catchment system and future scenarios. Key factors including climate, land-use and population change were combined in future scenarios and are represented in the BN through causal relationships. Scenarios consider shocks and changes to the catchment system in a 2050-time horizon. Resilience is measured by simulating the impacts of the future scenarios and their influence on natural, social and manufactured capitals within a probabilistic framework. Relationships between specific components of the catchment system can be evaluated using sensitivity analysis and strength of influence to better understand the interactions between specific variables. The participatory modelling improved the structure of the BN through collaborative learning with stakeholders, increasing understanding of the catchment system and stakeholder confidence in the probabilistic outputs. This participatory method delivered a purpose built, user-friendly decision support tool to help stakeholders understand the cumulative impacts of both climatic and socio-economic factors on catchment resilience.

How to cite: Adams, K., Glendell, M., Metzger, M., Helliwell, R., Macleod, C. (., and Gillman, S.: Participatory methods for developing a Bayesian network model for simulating catchment resilience under future scenarios. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9876, 2021.

EGU21-10004 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Missing values and lack of information in water management datasets: an approach based on Bayesian Networks

Rosa F Ropero, M Julia Flores, and Rafael Rumí

Environmental data often present missing values or lack of information that make modelling tasks difficult. Under the framework of SAICMA Research Project, a flood risk management system is modelled for Andalusian Mediterranean catchment using information from the Andalusian Hydrological System. Hourly data were collected from October 2011 to September 2020, and present two issues:

  • In Guadarranque River, for the dam level variable there is no data from May to August 2020, probably because of sensor damage.
  • No information about river level is collected in the lower part of Guadiaro River, which make difficult to estimate flood risk in the coastal area.

In order to avoid removing dam variable from the entire model (or those missing months), or even reject modelling one river system, this abstract aims to provide modelling solutions based on Bayesian networks (BNs) that overcome this limitation.

Guarranque River. Missing values.

Dataset contains 75687 observations for 6 continuous variables. BNs regression models based on fixed structures (Naïve Bayes, NB, and Tree Augmented Naïve, TAN) were learnt using the complete dataset (until September 2019) with the aim of predicting the dam level variable as accurately as possible. A scenario was carried out with data from October 2019 to March 2020 and compared the prediction made for the target variable with the real data. Results show both NB (rmse: 6.29) and TAN (rmse: 5.74) are able to predict the behaviour of the target variable.

Besides, a BN based on expert’s structural learning was learnt with real data and both datasets with imputed values by NB and TAN. Results show models learnt with imputed data (NB: 3.33; TAN: 3.07) improve the error rate of model with respect to real data (4.26).

Guadairo River. Lack of information.

Dataset contains 73636 observations with 14 continuous variables. Since rainfall variables present a high percentage of zero values (over 94%), they were discretised by Equal Frequency method with 4 intervals. The aim is to predict flooding risk in the coastal area but no data is collected from this area. Thus, an unsupervised classification based on hybrid BNs was performed. Here, target variable classifies all observations into a set of homogeneous groups and gives, for each observation, the probability of belonging to each group. Results show a total of 3 groups:

  • Group 0, “Normal situation”: with rainfall values equal to 0, and mean of river level very low.
  • Group 1, “Storm situation”: mean rainfall values are over 0.3 mm and all river level variables duplicate the mean with respect to group 0.
  • Group 2, “Extreme situation”: Both rainfall and river level means values present the highest values far away from both previous groups.

Even when validation shows this methodology is able to identify extreme events, further work is needed. In this sense, data from autumn-winter season (from October 2020 to March 2021) will be used. Including this new information it would be possible to check if last extreme events (flooding event during December and Filomenastorm during January) are identified.

 

 

 

How to cite: F Ropero, R., Flores, M. J., and Rumí, R.: Missing values and lack of information in water management datasets: an approach based on Bayesian Networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10004, 2021.

EGU21-8936 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Can high-frequency data enable better parameterization of water quality models and disentangling of DO processes?

Jingshui Huang, Pablo Merchan-Rivera, Gabriele Chiogna, Markus Disse, and Michael Rode

Water quality models offer to study dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics and resulting DO balances. However, the infrequent temporal resolution of measurement data commonly limits the reliability of disentangling and quantifying instream DO process fluxes using models. These limitations of the temporal data resolution can result in the equifinality of model parameter sets. In this study, we aim to quantify the effect of the combination of emerging high-frequency monitoring techniques and water quality modelling for 1) improving the estimation of the model parameters and 2) reducing the forward uncertainty of the continuous quantification of instream DO balance pathways.

To this end, synthetic measurements for calibration with a given series of frequencies are used to estimate the model parameters of a conceptual water quality model of an agricultural river in Germany. The frequencies vary from the 15-min interval, daily, weekly, to monthly. A Bayesian inference approach using the DREAM algorithm is adopted to perform the uncertainty analysis of DO simulation. Furthermore, the propagated uncertainties in daily fluxes of different DO processes, including reaeration, phytoplankton metabolism, benthic algae metabolism, nitrification, and organic matter deoxygenation, are quantified.

We hypothesize that the uncertainty will be larger when the measurement frequency of calibrated data was limited. We also expect that the high-frequency measurements significantly reduce the uncertainty of flux estimations of different DO balance components. This study highlights the critical role of high-frequency data supporting model parameter estimation and its significant value in disentangling DO processes.

How to cite: Huang, J., Merchan-Rivera, P., Chiogna, G., Disse, M., and Rode, M.: Can high-frequency data enable better parameterization of water quality models and disentangling of DO processes?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8936, 2021.

EGU21-7804 | vPICO presentations | HS2.3.7

Complex interactions of in-stream DOM and nutrient spiralling unravelled by Bayesian regression analysis

Matthias Pucher, Peter Flödl, Daniel Graeber, Klaus Felsenstein, Thomas Hein, and Gabriele Weigelhofer

The carbon cycle in aquatic environments is of high interest because of its effects on water quality and greenhouse gas production as well as its alteration through anthropogenic activities with unknown outcomes. Uptake and release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) compounds is depending on the molecular structure and is strongly linked to N and P dynamics. Current research has not fully revealed the complex patterns behind.

To investigate the interactions between DOM components, we performed ten plateau addition experiments with different, realistic, complex DOM leachates (cow dung, pig dung, corn, leaves and nettles) in a small stream. The DOM quality was determined by fluorescence measurements and parallel factor (PARAFAC) decomposition and the nutrient concentrations were measured at eleven consecutive points in the stream at plateau conditions. The hydrological transport processes were incorporated by using the results of a 1-D hydrodynamic model.

The nutrient spiralling concept and its application in nutrient dynamics is a valuable basis for the analysis of our data. However, we could not find a data analysis approach, that suited the nature of our questions and data. Based on previously observed nutrient uptake models, we extended the nutrient spiralling concept by additional non-linear terms to analyse interactions between different DOM components.

We developed the “Interactions in Nutrient Spirals using BayesIan REgression (INSBIRE)” approach to analyse DOM uptake and retention mechanism. This approach can disentangle complex and interacting biotic and abiotic drivers in nutrient uptake metrics, show their variability and quantify their error distribution. We successfully used INSBIRE to show DOM-compound-specific interactions and draw conclusions from the data of our experiment. The applicability of INSBIRE has still to be tested in other studies, but we see a high potential not only in DOM dynamics but any kind of solute dynamics where interactions are crucial.

How to cite: Pucher, M., Flödl, P., Graeber, D., Felsenstein, K., Hein, T., and Weigelhofer, G.: Complex interactions of in-stream DOM and nutrient spiralling unravelled by Bayesian regression analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7804, 2021.

HS2.4.2 – Hydrological change: regional hydrological behaviour under transient climate and land use conditions

EGU21-8611 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Analysing the bandwidths of hydrological change in small river catchments using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections

Christoph Sauer, Peter Fröhle, Edgar Nehlsen, Diana Rechid, Laurens Bouwer, and Christine Nam

Projections of the 21st century potential future climate evolution, especially for precipitation, are associated with high uncertainty and variability. Knowledge of the variability of the projected precipitation and resulting run-offs and the sources of uncertainties form the basis for analysis and assessment of future water-management options as well as potential risks related to droughts and flood events. The variabilities related to climate modelling can only be assessed by using a comparatively large number of climate projections.

In our research, we apply a large ensemble of regional climate model projections from the regional climate model REMO, driven by different global climate model simulations, at high temporal (hourly timestep) and high spatial (0.11 degree, or about 12.5 km) resolutions. Although the analysis of such big datasets involves considerable computational and storage capacities, this potentially helps to improve the simulation of future hydrological quantities in river catchments. For the analysis of the behaviour of small river catchments, we apply a semi-distributive hydrological model. Annual and winter average precipitation conditions show a robust and statistically significant increase especially for the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation ranges are compared with the ranges of runoff based on hydrological impact model runs driven by a set of simulated parameters from the regional climate model ensemble. The analyses are performed for a sub-catchment of the Lower Elbe system (Krückau catchment), which is a typical small basin (area < 200km2) close to the city of Hamburg in northern Germany. The model runs cover a long simulation period of 150 years (1950-2100) with a temporal resolution of 1 day. Short term model runs with a temporal resolution of 1 hour were carried out for annual and seasonal (summer/winter) maximum runoff derived from the long-term simulations.

Average annual runoff shows an increase of 0 to 10 % for the RCP2.6 ensemble and an increase of 0 to 20 % for the RCP8.5 ensemble at the end of the 21st century. Annual and winter average conditions (precipitation sums and average runoff) of the RCP8.5 ensemble show a robust increase across different ensemble simulations. Extreme events however show high variability and no conclusive and robust trend. Analysis shows a good relation between average values of precipitation and average runoff (MQ). Future development of simulated annual maximum runoffs shows only a weak relation with future simulated precipitation extremes. However, summer maximum runoffs tend to show a relation with summer precipitation extremes. The behaviour of winter runoffs might be explained by altered future conditions of snow aggregation and melt in combination with high soil moisture. With increasing average and extreme temperatures, snow fall, snow accumulation and concentrated runoff caused by snow melt in spring are less likely to occur.

One of the conclusions drawn is that especially for assessing extreme precipitation and its impacts on small hydrological catchments it is necessary to apply regional climate model projections with high spatial and temporal resolution where further improvement is expected by making use of the upcoming generation of climate simulations on convection permitting scale.

How to cite: Sauer, C., Fröhle, P., Nehlsen, E., Rechid, D., Bouwer, L., and Nam, C.: Analysing the bandwidths of hydrological change in small river catchments using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8611, 2021.

EGU21-7108 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

The more is not the merrier – an informed selection of climate model ensembles can enhance the quantification of hydrological change

Jens Kiesel, Philipp Stanzel, Harald Kling, Nicola Fohrer, Sonja C. Jähnig, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

Production of a large ensemble of climate simulations suitable for impact assessments is an attempt to enhance our knowledge about the associated uncertainties in future projections. However, the actual quantification of the change in the climate and its impact relies on the ensemble of models selected, particularly given the wide availability of climatic simulations from various initiatives, i.e. CMIP5, CORDEX.

Here, we hypothesize that historical streamflow observations contain valuable information to investigate practices for the selection of climate model ensembles. We apply eight selection methods (based on democracy, diversity of GCM, diversity of RCM, maximum information minimum redundancy, best performing hindcasted climate depiction, best performing hydrological model, simple climate model averaging and reliable ensemble average) to subset an ensemble available from 16 combinations of Euro-CORDEX GCM-RCM by comparing observed to simulated streamflow shift of the Danube from a reference period (1960–1989) to an evaluation period (1990–2014). Simulations are carried out with the well-performing Upper Danube COSERO hydrological model, spanning a calibration and evaluation period of more than 100 years. Comparison against no selection shows that an informed selection of ensemble members improves the quantification of climate change impacts where methods that maintain the diversity and information content of the full ensemble are favourable. In addition, the method followed allows the assessment which individual climate models perform best, where only three of 16 models were able to correctly reproduce the direction of streamflow change in each season.

Prior to carrying out climate impact assessments, we propose splitting the long-term historical data and using it to test climate model performance, sub-selection methods, and their agreement in reproducing the indicator of interest, which further provide the expectable benchmark of near- and far-future impact assessments. This test can further be applied in multi-basin experiments to obtain a better understanding of uncertainty propagation and uncertainty reduction in hydrological impact studies.

How to cite: Kiesel, J., Stanzel, P., Kling, H., Fohrer, N., Jähnig, S. C., and Pechlivanidis, I.: The more is not the merrier – an informed selection of climate model ensembles can enhance the quantification of hydrological change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7108, 2021.

EGU21-1736 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Future Changes in extreme precipitation over South Asia and its causes

Mayank Suman and Rajib Maity

Indian Summer Monsoon is vulnerable to climate change. Analysis of precipitation over India suggests more increase in extreme precipitation over south India as compared to north and central India during post-1970 (1971-2017) as compared to pre-1970 (1930-1970) (Suman and Maity, 2020). This contrast in the characteristics of extreme precipitation over south and north India is expected to continue as revealed by the analysis of precipitation from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. Additionally, precipitation extreme are expected to shift southward over South Asia in the future (2006-2100 as compared to 1961-2005). For instance, the Arabian Sea, south India, Myanmar, Thailand, and Malaysia are expected to have the maximum increase (~18.5 mm/day for RCP8.5 scenario) in mean extreme precipitation (average precipitation for the days with more than 99th percentile of daily precipitation). However, north and central India and Tibetan Plateau show relatively less increase (~2.7 mm/day for RCP8.5 scenario). The increase in extreme precipitation over most part of South Asia can be attributed to stronger monsoon due to increase in air temperature over Tibetan Platue and Himalayas, stronger positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and high precipitatible water over land areas in the future. However, while analysis of moisture flux and moisture convergence at 850mb, an intense eastward shift is noticed for moisture flux (over Indian Ocean region). This shift in moisture flux along with associated changes in moisture convergence over landmass are found to intensify during days with extreme precipitation. These changes are expected to intensify the observed contrast in extreme precipitation over south and north India and shift the extreme precipitation southward over south Asia, causing more extreme precipitation events in the countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, etc.

Keywords: Extreme Precipitation; Indian Summer Monsoon; Climate Change; Indian Ocean Dipole.

 

Reference:

Suman, M., Maity, R. (2020), Southward shift of precipitation extremes over south Asia: Evidences from CORDEX data. Sci Rep 10, 6452 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63571-x.

How to cite: Suman, M. and Maity, R.: Future Changes in extreme precipitation over South Asia and its causes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1736, 2021.

EGU21-6327 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Climate change impact on water resources of the Desna river basin

Valeriy Osypov, Natalia Osadcha, Volodimir Osadchyi, and Oleh Speka

A river basin management plan has to consider climate change impact because global warming influences the water cycle explicitly. For Ukraine, only continental-scale studies or(and) global hydrological models reflect the climate change impact on water resources. Such resolution is insufficient to develop confident adaptation strategies.

This study aims to assess changes in the river runoff, water flow formation, and soil water of the Desna river basin under future climate. The Desna supply Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, with fresh water. Moreover, soil water capacity across the basin is critical for crop production, the leading sector of the region.

The framework consists of the process-based ecohydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution (~12 km) regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till the end of the XXI century. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated on water discharge from 12 gauges across the basin, then it was driven by each climate model to achieve a range of possible future scenarios. This approach better represents the hydrological processes and achieves more confident results than in previous studies.

Seven of eight models project warmer and wetter climate in the near future (2021-2050), and all models project the same in the far future (2071-2100). According to the ensemble mean, the air temperature will increase by 1.1°C under RCP4.5 and 1.2°C under RCP8.5 in the near future, and by 2.2°C under RCP4.5 and 4.2°C under RCP8.5 in the far future. Precipitation surplus will reach 5% (range from -6% to 16%) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near future, and 8% (from 2% to 17%) under RCP4.5 and 14% (from 3% to 23%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. The discharge will likely increase (mean signal 6-8% in the near future and 10-14% in the far future) mostly due to higher groundwater inflow.

Intra-annual changes could be very unfavorable for plant growth because of lower soil water content and higher temperature stress during the vegetation period. The models agree about precipitation surplus during the cold period but, in summer, all directions of change are almost equally possible.

We consider that, among other vulnerabilities of the Desna basin, the water stress for crops will be the main issue because of the high dependence of the economy on crop production. Attention should also be paid to forest fires, eutrophication, and the concentration of organic substances in the stream

How to cite: Osypov, V., Osadcha, N., Osadchyi, V., and Speka, O.: Climate change impact on water resources of the Desna river basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6327, 2021.

The elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2), as a key variable linking human activities and climate change, seriously affects the watershed hydrological processes. However, whether and how atmospheric CO2 influences the watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales have not been revealed. Based on long-term hydrometeorological data, the variation of non-stationary parameter n series in the Choudhury's equation in the mainstream of the Wei River Basin (WRB), the Jing River Basin (JRB) and Beiluo River Basin (BLRB), three typical Loess Plateau regions in China, was examined. Subsequently, the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was applied to explore the impact of CO2 on watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales. Results indicate that (1) in the context of warming and drying condition, annual n series in the WRB displays a significantly increasing trend, while that in the JRB and BLRB presents non-significantly decreasing trends; (2) the non-stationary n series was divided into 3-, 7-, 18-, exceeding 18-year time scale oscillations and a trend residual. In the WRB and BLRB, the overall variation of n was dominated by the residual, whereas in the JRB it was dominated by the 7-year time scale oscillation; (3) the relationship between COconcentration and n series was significant in the WRB except for 3-year time scale. In the JRB, COconcentration and n series were significantly correlated on the 7- and exceeding 7-year time scales, while in the BLRB, such a significant relationship existed only on the 18- and exceeding 18-year time scales. (4) CO2-driven temperature rise and vegetation greening elevated the aridity index and evaporation ratio, thus impacting watershed water-energy balance dynamics. This study provided a deeper explanation for the possible impact of CO2 concentration on the watershed hydrological processes.

How to cite: Zhao, J.: Time-scale dependent mechanism of atmospheric CO2 concentration drivers of watershed water-energy balance, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8128, 2021.

In the past two decades we see many signs of changing behaviour in hydrological regimes of Russian Plain rivers. River regimes classification was done in the early 1990s and it's possible that some rivers (especially in Don and Oka river basins) have already changed their behaviour. We believe that's the first time this was done by objective analysis and without reliance on experts opinion.

In this work we make an attempt at automatic and objective classification of water regime types for 220 rivers of Russian Plain and propose a method for automatic assesment of changes in hydrological behaviour of local rivers. We use monthly data and k-means clustering algorithm to classify each river water regime for every year with available data. Unlike most of other approaches we do not divide data by year but create clusters from all datapoints simultaniously. This allows us to use more datapoints and establish a more robust result. Next, when we have annual clusters for every datapoint we can assess the stability of water regime for each catchment over several decades and identify catchments with unstable and changing behaviour. 

By using this method we're able to automatically identify 5 distinct water regimes for the rivers of Russian Plain: three with dominant peaks caused by spring freshets in March, April and Februaty with most discharge happening over the course of a single month and two types of water regimes with maximal discharges in April and June, but lacking a pronounced peak in these months. Unlike previous calssifications we can identify the closest water regime for every year and therefore make an attempt at quantifying stability of these regimes and changes over time. By using a very naive approach and calculating a standard deviation over a moving window of 10 years it's possible to detect unstable regions and therefore select periods of stability and shifts for each subregion of Russian Plain.

We're able to identify Don and Oka basins as regions with the most changes in water regimes and it corresponds with research data. In addition rivers in Kola peninsula and Ural regions peninsula demonstrate a slight shift in stability. In terms of hydrological behaviour we see siginificant changes in Don and Oka river basins that shifted from spring freshet peak in April into water regime type with a peak in March or a more southern water regime with less pronounced April peak having precedenig winter thaws.

We believe that this simple approach at identifying water regimes and changes in them can be successfuly used for other regions than Russian Plane.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant No.19-77-10032) in methods and Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant No.18-05-60021) for analyses in Arctic region 

How to cite: Ivanov, A. and Kireeva, M.: Identifying changes in hydrological behaviour of Russian Plain rivers over the last 70 years by using clustering analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8327, 2021.

EGU21-7948 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Groundwater modelling for time periods of up to 105 years

Gerrit H. de Rooij and Thomas Mueller

Occasionally, there is an interest in groundwater flows over many millennia. The input parameter requirement of numerical groundwater flow models and their calculation times limit their usefulness for such studies.

Analytical models require considerable simplifications of the properties and geometry of aquifers and of the forcings. On the other hand, they do not appear to have an inherent limitation on the duration of the simulated period. The simplest models have explicit solutions, meaning that the hydraulic head at a given time and location can be calculated directly, without the need to incrementally iterate through the entire preceding time period like their numerical counterparts.

We developed an analytical solution for a simple aquifer geometry: a strip aquifer between a no flow boundary and a body of surface water with a prescribed water level. This simplicity permitted flexible forcings: The non-uniform initial hydraulic head in the aquifer is arbitrary and the surface water level can vary arbitrarily with time. Aquifer recharge must be uniform in space but can also vary arbitrarily with time.

We also developed a modification that verifies after prescribed and constant time intervals if the hydraulic head is such that the land surface is covered with water. This excess water then infiltrates in areas where the groundwater level is below the surface and the remainder is discharged into the surface water. The hydraulic head across the aquifer is modified accordingly and used as the initial condition for the next time interval. This modification models the development of a river network during dry periods. The increased flexibility of the model comes at the price of the need to go through the entire simulation period one time step at a time. For very long time records, these intervals will typically be one year.

Given the uncertainty of the aquifer parameters and the forcings, the models are expected to be used in a stochastic framework. We are therefore working on a shell that accepts multiple values for each parameter as well as multiple scenarios of surface water levels and groundwater recharge rates, along with an estimate of their probabilities. The shell will generate all possible resulting combinations, the number of which can easily exceed 10000, then runs the model for each combination, and computes statistics of the average hydraulic head and the aquifer discharge into the surface water at user-specified times.

A case study will tell if this endeavor is viable. We will model the aquifer below the mountain range north of Salalah in Oman, which separates the desert of the Arabian Peninsula from the coastal plain at its southern shore. Rainfall estimates from the isotopic composition of stalactites in the area indicate distinct dry and wet periods in the past 300 000 years. In combination with estimated sea level fluctuations over that period, this provides an interesting combination of forcings. We examine the dynamics of the total amount of water stored in the aquifer, and of the outflow of water from the aquifer into the coastal plain.

How to cite: de Rooij, G. H. and Mueller, T.: Groundwater modelling for time periods of up to 105 years, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7948, 2021.

EGU21-9529 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Trend of stream temperature and its drivers over the past 55 years in a large European River basin

Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Florentina Moatar, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Dominique Thiery, Céline Monteil, and Frédéric Hendrickx

Air temperature has been increasing all around the world over the past decades. Owing to its sensitivity to air temperature, it is consequently expected that stream temperature experiences an increase as well. However, due to paucity of long-term stream temperature data, assessments of the magnitude of such trends in relation with landscape and hydrological changes have remained scarce.

The present study used a physically-based thermal model (T-NET: Temperature-NETwork), coupled with a semi-distributed hydrological model (EROS) to reconstruct past daily stream temperatures and discharges at the scale of the Loire River basin in France (105 km2 with 52278 reaches). The ability of both models to reconstruct long-term trends was assessed at 44 gauging stations and 11 stream temperature stations.  

T-NET simulations over the 1963-2017 period show that there has been a significant increasing trend in stream temperatures for at least 70% of reaches in all seasons (median=0.36 °C/decade). Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in spring (Mar-May) and summer (Jun-Aug) with a median increase of 0.37 °C (0.11 to 0.8°C) and 0.42°C (0.14 to 1 °C) per decade, respectively. For 81 % of reaches, annual stream temperature trends are greater than annual air temperature trends (median ratio=1.21; interquartile ranges: 1.06-1.44). Greater increases in stream temperature in spring and summer are found in the south of the basin, mostly in the Massif Central (up to 1°C/decade) where greater increase in air temperature (up to 0.67 °C/decade) and greater decrease in discharge (up to -16%/decade) occur jointly. The increase of stream temperature is also higher in large rivers compared to small rivers where riparian vegetation shading mitigate the increase in temperature. For the majority of reaches, changes in stream temperature, air temperature, and discharge significantly intensified in the late 1980s.

These climate-induced changes in the annual and seasonal stream temperature could help us to explain shifts in the phenology and geographical distribution of cold-water fish especially in the south of the basin where trends are more pronounced.

How to cite: Seyedhashemi, H., Moatar, F., Vidal, J.-P., Thiery, D., Monteil, C., and Hendrickx, F.: Trend of stream temperature and its drivers over the past 55 years in a large European River basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9529, 2021.

EGU21-9946 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Uncertainty on evapotranspiration formulation and its hydrological implication under climate change over France

Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Ludovic Oudin, Guillaume Thirel, and Lila Collet

Climate change might cause regional modifications of precipitation regimes and increase of air temperature and evaporative demand. As a consequence, the potential increase in evapotranspiration has been determined as a key risk, which could lead to a decrease in runoff and water resources. In many hydrological models, evapotranspiration is determined by a preliminary computation of the evaporative demand, potential evapotranspiration (PET). Estimating PET for future climate is still subject to extensive research, due to the multiplicity of PET formulations and the uncertainties associated with the climatic variables used within these formulations. Physically-based PET formulations use several climatic variables whose simulations come with large uncertainties, while more simple empirical PET formulations rely on limited climatic variables. However, their empiric development questions their robustness for transient climatic conditions.

In this work, we examined the evolution of PET under future climate conditions. We also investigated to what extent seven different classical PET formulations could modify the partitioning of uncertainty associated with climate projections.

The importance of PET formulation on the total uncertainty of the potential evapotranspiration changes was evaluated within a multiscenario multimodel ensemble (Euro-CORDEX climate projections from CMIP5 experiment) over the whole France. This approach was used to account for the uncertainty on the unknown future greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, and differences coming from climate models (GCMs and RCMs). An analysis of the variance (ANOVA), allowed us to determine the contribution of each modelling step to the total uncertainty of PET estimates over entire France. The ANOVA was applied on an ensemble completed by a Bayesian process, to have a balance set of projections to analyze.

The results showed that the relative importance of PET formulations was found to be minor compared with other uncertainty sources (GCMs and RCMs) in the future. We also found that divergences of PET among the different formulations were highly dependent on the temperature anomaly. Based on our experimental design, we concluded that the choice of PET formulation might not constitute a major element of uncertainty reduction for hydrological projections.

How to cite: Lemaitre-Basset, T., Oudin, L., Thirel, G., and Collet, L.: Uncertainty on evapotranspiration formulation and its hydrological implication under climate change over France, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9946, 2021.

The transboundary Helmand River basin is the main drainage system for large parts of Afghanistan and the Sistan region of Iran. Due to the reliance of this arid region on water from the Helmand River, a better understanding of hydrological drought pattern and the underlying drivers in the region are critically required for an effective management of the available water. The objective of this paper is therefore to analyse and quantify spatio-temporal pattern of drought and the underlying processes in the study region. More specifically we test for the Helmand River Basin the following hypotheses for the 1970-2006 period: (1) drought characteristics, including frequency and severity systematically changed over the study period, (2) the spatial pattern and processes of drought propagation through the Helmand River Basin also changed and (3) the relative roles of climate variability and human influence on changes in hydrological droughts can be quantified. It was found that drought characteristics varied throughout the study period, but did largely show no systematic trends. The same was observed for the time series of drought indices SPI and SPEI, which exhibited considerable spatial coherence and synchronicity throughout the basin indicating that, overall, droughts similarly affect the entire HRB with little regional or local differences. In contrast, analysis of SDI exhibited significant negative trends in the lower parts of the basin, indicating an intensification of hydrological droughts. It could be shown that with a mean annual precipitation of ~250 mm y-1, streamflow deficits and thus hydrological drought throughout the HRB are largely controlled by precipitation deficits, whose annual anomalies on average account for ±50 mm y-1 or ~20% of the water balance of the HRB, while anomalies of total evaporative fluxes on average only account for ±20mm y-1. The two reservoirs in the HRB only played a minor role for the downstream propagation of streamflow deficits. Irrigation water abstraction had a similarly limited effect on the magnitude of streamflow deficits, accounting for ~10% of the water balance of the HRB. However, the downstream parts of the HRB moderated the further propagation of streamflow deficits and associated droughts in the early decades of the study period. This drought moderation function of the lower basin was gradually and systematically inverted by the end of the study period, when the lower basin eventually amplified the downstream propagation of flow deficits and droughts. This shift from drought moderation to drought amplification in the lower basin is likely a consequence of increased agricultural activity and the associated increases in irrigation water demand from ~13 mm y-1 at the beginning of the study period to ~23 mm y-1 at the end and thus in spite of being only a minor fraction of the water balance. Overall the results of this study illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts in the HRB clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to direct human intervention.

How to cite: Roodari, A. and Hrachowitz, M.: Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian River: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-481, 2021.

EGU21-7302 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Identifying and quantifying the impact of non-climatic effects on the water cycle in a semi-arid environment 

Julie Collignan, Jan Polcher, and Pere Quintana Seguí

In a context of climate change, the stakes surrounding water availability and use are getting higher, especially in semi-arid climates. Human activities such as irrigation and land cover changes impact the water cycle, raising questions around the effects it could have on regional atmospheric circulation and how to separate the impact of climate change from the impact of anthropogenic activities to better understand their role in the historical records. The ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model from Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) simulates global carbon cycle and aims at quantifying terrestrial water and energy balance. It is being developed at regional scale but does not include satisfying hypothesis to account for human activities such as irrigation at such scale so far.

We propose a methodology to semi-empirically separate the effect of climate from the impact of the changing catchment characteristics on river discharge. It is based on the Budyko framework and allows to characterise the annual river discharge of over 363 river monitoring stations in Spain. The Budyko parameter is estimated for each basin and represents its hydrological characteristics. Precipitations and potential evapotranspiration are derived from the forcing dataset GSWP3 (Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3) – from 1901 to 2010 –. Two methods are used to estimate evapotranspiration : the first uses evapotranspiration from the ORCHIDEE LSM outputs while the second deduced evapotranspiration from river discharge observations and the water balance equation. The first method only accounts for the effects of atmospheric forcing while the other combines, through the observations, climatic and non-climatic processes over the watersheds. We then study the evolution over the Budyko parameter fitted with these two estimates of evaporation. Studying the watershed parameter allows us to free ourselves from some of the climate interannual variability compared to directly looking at changes in the river discharge and better separate anthropogenic changes from the effect of climatic forcing.

Our results show that for most basins tested over Spain, there is an increasing trend in the Budyko parameter representing increasing evaporation efficiency of the watershed which can not be explained by the climate forcing. This trend is consistent with changes in irrigation equipment and land cover changes over the studied period. However changes of the basin characteristics can not be fully quantified by this variables. Other factors as glaciers melting which derails the water balance over our time of study.

The methodology needs to be extended to other areas such as Northern Europe to see if the differences in response of the catchments to anthropogenic changes quantified by our methodology corresponds to known contrasts. Balance between climatic and anthropogenic changes of basin characteristics are different in semi-arid climate than in northern more humid regions.

How to cite: Collignan, J., Polcher, J., and Quintana Seguí, P.: Identifying and quantifying the impact of non-climatic effects on the water cycle in a semi-arid environment , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7302, 2021.

EGU21-2242 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Relative impact of irrigation techniques and climate change on hydroclimatic regimes in the Mediterranean region

Sandra Pool, Félix Francés, Alberto Garcia-Prats, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Carles Sanichs-Ibor, Mario Schirmer, Hong Yang, and Joaquin Jiménez-Martínez

Irrigated agriculture is the major water consumer in the Mediterranean region. Improved irrigation techniques have been widely promoted to reduce water withdrawals and increase resilience to climate change impacts. In this study, we assess the impact of the ongoing transition from flood to drip irrigation on future hydroclimatic regimes in the agricultural areas of Valencia (Spain). The impact assessment is conducted for a control period (1971-2000), a near-term future (2020-2049) and a mid-term future (2045-2074) using a chain of models that includes five GCM-RCM combinations, two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two irrigation scenarios (flood and drip irrigation), and twelve parameterizations of the hydrological model Tetis. Results of this modelling chain suggest considerable uncertainties regarding the magnitude and sign of future hydroclimatic changes. Yet, climate change could lead to a statistically significant decrease in future groundwater recharge of up -6.6% in flood irrigation and -9.3% in drip irrigation. Projected changes in actual evapotranspiration are as well statistically significant, but in the order of +1% in flood irrigation and -2.1% in drip irrigation under the assumption of business as usual irrigation schedules. The projected changes and the related uncertainties will pose a challenging context for future water management. However, our findings further indicate that the effect of the choice of irrigation technique may have a greater impact on hydroclimate than climate change alone. Explicitly considering irrigation techniques in climate change impact assessment might therefore be a way towards better informed decision-making.

This study has been supported by the IRRIWAM research project funded by the Coop Research Program of the ETH Zurich World Food System Center and the ETH Zurich Foundation, and by the ADAPTAMED (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00) research projects funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain including EU FEDER funds.

How to cite: Pool, S., Francés, F., Garcia-Prats, A., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Sanichs-Ibor, C., Schirmer, M., Yang, H., and Jiménez-Martínez, J.: Relative impact of irrigation techniques and climate change on hydroclimatic regimes in the Mediterranean region, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2242, 2021.

The water resources of Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities, which exert considerable pressure on the overall water security.  Understanding the relative contributions of each of the possible causal factors to the hydrological alteration is pivotal to design sustainable water resources management strategies. In this study, the hydrological alteration of the Isser catchment in Algeria is assessed and explained in terms of possible explanatory factors. A long term hydro-meteorological dataset was reconstructed and the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the alteration of streamflow and the possible causal factors. To identify the role of causal factors in the hydrologic alterations, two techniques were used.  First, Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), which is an advanced data-based nonlinear time-series analysis tool, was used to identify causality in time-series. Second, a Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (FAHP) expert-based model was applied to assess the possible underlying causes for hydrologic alterations and to quantify the potential influences of human activities and climate change. The results of the trend analysis show a significant downward trend for streamflow (pvalue< 0.05) for the period 1971-2010. The CCM method shows that the streamflow alteration is unidirectionally caused by changes in precipitation, temperature, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and NDVI patterns and that there is little feedback from streamflow alteration to these causing factors.  The FAHP suggests that climate change is dominating the decreasing trend in streamflow, being responsible for 60 % of the alterations as compared to 40 % of the alterations caused by changes in the land use patterns and intensive water extraction.

How to cite: Kadir, M. and Vanclooster, M.: Exploring causes of hydrological alterations and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities in the Isser catchment, Algeria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16500, 2021.

EGU21-3084 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Projecting future streamflow under changing climate and urban land cover across the UK

Shasha Han and Louise Slater

Changes in precipitation and land cover are important drivers of change in catchment streamflow, yet quantifying their influence remains a major challenge. This work aims to understand how streamflow may evolve under different scenarios of future precipitation and urbanization across the UK. A collection of catchments from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) that have experienced significant changes in flows and urbanization were selected. Both historical observations and future projections of precipitation and urban land cover were extracted within each study catchment, for different emissions and socio-economic scenarios including Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). Distributional regression models – Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) – were developed using historical precipitation, land cover, and streamflow, and employed to project future streamflow using bias-corrected projections of precipitation and land cover. The results improve our understanding of streamflow response to climate and land cover changes and provide further insights for water resources management and land use development.

How to cite: Han, S. and Slater, L.: Projecting future streamflow under changing climate and urban land cover across the UK, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3084, 2021.

EGU21-5316 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Response of hydrological processes to climate and land use changes in Hiso River watershed, Fukushima, Japan

Shilei Peng, Chunying Wang, Sadao Eguchi, Kanta Kuramochi, Masato Igura, Kazunori Kohyama, Satoru Ohkoshi, and Ryusuke Hatano

Hydrological processes at basin scale are driven by climate and land-use changes. Hiso River watershed (HRW) is within a radiocesium contaminated area caused by the disaster in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP). It’s urgently needed to make evaluations on how changes of climate and land-use bring impacts on hydrological processes, which control pollutants transport in watershed. This study applied a combination method of Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future climatic and hydrologic variables. Future climate data was obtained from three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios of a single General Circulation Models (GCMs) in three future periods of 2030s, 2060s and 2090s (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099), with a baseline period (1980-2009). Furthermore, according to land-use change in HRW during 2013-2017, three land-use change scenarios under the three future climate scenarios were established. Results suggested that SDSM showed good capabilities in capturing daily maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation. The SWAT model presented good performances in simulating monthly and yearly streamflow. Results also suggested projected higher temperatures and lower rainfall led to decreased annual water yield and evapotranspiration (ET). The annual water yield and ET decreased in most seasons while had a slight increase in spring. RCP8.5 scenario always generated larger magnitudes for climatic variables and water balance components compared with other climate scenarios. Land-use changes had strong impact on surface runoff and groundwater flow. These findings could provide reference for decontamination and revitalization policy-making under complicated land use and climate change conditions.

How to cite: Peng, S., Wang, C., Eguchi, S., Kuramochi, K., Igura, M., Kohyama, K., Ohkoshi, S., and Hatano, R.: Response of hydrological processes to climate and land use changes in Hiso River watershed, Fukushima, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5316, 2021.

EGU21-10894 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Climate and land use change impacts on water resources in Sardinia (Italy)

Dario Ruggiu, Salvatore Urru, Roberto Deidda, and Francesco Viola

The assessment of climate change and land use modifications effects on hydrological cycle is challenging. We propose an approach based on Budyko theory to investigate the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic drivers on water resources availability. As an example of application, the proposed approach is implemented in the island of Sardinia (Italy), which is affected by important processes of both climate and land use modifications. In details, the proposed methodology assumes the Fu’s equation to describe the mechanisms of water partitioning at regional scale and uses the probability distributions of annual runoff (Q) in a closed form. The latter is parametrized by considering simple long-term climatic info (namely first orders statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) and land use properties of basins.

In order to investigate the possible near future water availability of Sardinia, several climate and land use scenarios have been considered, referring to 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 periods. Climate scenarios have been generated considering fourteen bias corrected outputs of climatic models from EUROCORDEX’s project (RCP 8.5), while three land use scenarios have been created following the last century tendencies.

Results show that the distribution of annual runoff in Sardinia could be significantly affected by both climate and land use change. The near future distribution of Q generally displayed a decrease in mean and variance compared to the baseline.   

The reduction of  Q is more critical moving from 2006-2050 to 2051-2100 period, according with climatic trends, namely due to the reduction of annual rainfall and the increase of potential evapotranspiration. The effect of LU change on Q distribution is weaker than the climatic one, but not negligible.

How to cite: Ruggiu, D., Urru, S., Deidda, R., and Viola, F.: Climate and land use change impacts on water resources in Sardinia (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10894, 2021.

EGU21-10613 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Impacts of climate and land use changes on water variability, using a Budyko framework: case study in Gansu, China

Qing He, Kwok Pan Chun, Omer Yetemen, Bastien Dieppois, Liang Chen, and Xicai Pan

Disentangling the effects of climate and land use changes on regional hydrological conditions is critical for local water and food security. The water variability over climate transition regions at the midlatitudes is sensitive to changes in regional climate and land use. Gansu, located in northwest China, is a midlatitude climate transition region with sharp climate and vegetation gradients. In this study, the effects of climate and land‑use changes on water balances are investigated over Gansu between 1981 and 2015 using a Budyko framework. Results show that there is reduced runoff generation potential over Gansu during 1981 and 2015, especially in the southern part of the region. Based on statistical scaling relationships, local runoff generation potential over Gansu are related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intensified El Nino conditions weaken the Asian monsoons, leading to precipitation deficits over Gansu. Moreover, the regional evapotranspiration (ET) is increasing due to the warming temperature. The decreasing precipitation and increasing ET cause the decline of runoff generation potential over Gansu. Using the dynamical downscaling model outputs, the Budyko analysis indicates that increasing coverage of forests and croplands may lead to higher ET and may reduce runoff generation potential over Gansu. Moreover, the contributions of climate variability and land‑use changes vary spatially. In the southwest part of Gansu, the impacts of climate variability on water variations are larger (around 80%) than that of land‑use changes (around 20%), while land use changes are the dominant drivers of water variability in the southeast part of the region. The decline of runoff generation potential reveals a potential risk for local water and food security over Gansu. The water‑resource assessment approach developed in this study is applicable for collaborative planning at other climate transition regions at the midlatitudes with complex climate and land types for the Belt and Road Initiative.

How to cite: He, Q., Chun, K. P., Yetemen, O., Dieppois, B., Chen, L., and Pan, X.: Impacts of climate and land use changes on water variability, using a Budyko framework: case study in Gansu, China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10613, 2021.

While the Budyko framework has been a simple and convenient tool to assess runoff (Q) responses to climatic and surface changes, it has been unclear how parameters of a Budyko function represent the vertical land-atmosphere interactions. Here, we explicitly derived a two-parameter equation by correcting a boundary condition of the Budyko hypothesis. The correction enabled for the Budyko function to reflect the evaporative demand (Ep) that actively responds to soil moisture deficiency. The derived two-parameter function suggests that four physical variables control surface runoff; namely, precipitation (P), potential evaporation (Ep), wet-environment evaporation (Ew), and the catchment properties (n). We linked the derived Budyko function to a definitive complementary evaporation principle, and assessed the relative elasticities of Q to climatic and land surface changes. Results showed that P is the primary control of runoff changes in most of river basins across the world, but its importance declined with climatological aridity. In arid river basins, the catchment properties play a major role in changing runoff, while changes in Ep and Ew seem to exert minor influences on Q changes. It was also found that the two-parameter Budyko function can capture unusual negative correlation between the mean annual Q and Ep. This work suggests that at least two parameters are required for a Budyko function to properly describe the vertical interactions between the land and the atmosphere.

How to cite: Kim, D. and Chun, J. A.: Two parameters are required for a Budyko function to describe the land-atmosphere interaction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3554, 2021.

EGU21-10243 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Decadal-scale assessment of blue and green water resources in the Brahmani river basin, Odisha

Sushree Swagatika Swain, Ashok Mishra, Chandranath Chatterjee, and Bhabagrahi Sahoo

Inherent knowledge of the river basin-scale water balance components is essential for long‐term management of water resources planning and food security at a regional scale. This study explains a combined approach using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) followed by the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI‐2) concept to calibrate and validate the hydrologic models of the Brahmani basin based on observed streamflow at a monthly time‐step. The water balance components in terms of blue water flow (surface runoff, return flow, and lateral flow), green water flow (actual evapotranspiration), and green water storage (soil moisture storage) of the study area are assessed at a decadal scale (1979-88, 1989-98, and 1999-2008). The first 7 years of each decade are considered as calibration period (1979-85, 1989-95, and 1999-05) and the remaining years are the validation period (1986-88, 1996-98, and 2006-08). The results of the initial decade (1979-88) showed that there is a balance between blue water flow, green water flow, and green water storage components. There is an increasing trend in blue water flow and green water flow components in the mid-decade (1989-98). However, there is a fluctuation in green water storage. It is decreasing in mid-decade and increasing towards the end decade (1999-2008). The warm and humid climate of the study area is expected to affect the variation of the above components. The vulnerability of water balance components is crucial for maintaining regional-scale water demand and food security. However, the alarming impacts of climate change could adversely affect the above situation. Water availability component analysis at a decadal scale has not been explored widely in the present study area. This study can help the policy-makers to maintain a balance between water demand from different sectors and availability to avoid water scarcity of a river basin in the future. Further, the developed approach for the analysis of blue and green water can be applied in other arid and semi‐arid regions.

How to cite: Swain, S. S., Mishra, A., Chatterjee, C., and Sahoo, B.: Decadal-scale assessment of blue and green water resources in the Brahmani river basin, Odisha, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10243, 2021.

EGU21-3194 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Impacts of atmospheric rivers on the hydrometeorology of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin in the snowmelt season

Deniz Bozkurt, Omer L. Sen, Yasemin Ezber, Bin Guan, Maximiliano Viale, and Ferat Caglar

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are important components of the global water cycle as they are responsible for over 90% of the poleward moisture transport at middle to high latitudes. ARs travelling thousands of kilometers over arid North Africa could interact with the highlands of the Mesopotamia and thus affect the hydrometeorology and water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Here, we use a state-of-the-art AR tracking database, and reanalysis and observational datasets to investigate the climatology (1979-2017) and influences of these ARs in snowmelt season (March-April). The Red Sea and northeast Africa are found to be the major source regions of these ARs, which are typically associated with the eastern Mediterranean trough positioned over the Balkan Peninsula and a blocking anticyclone over the Near East-Caspian region, triggering southwesterly air flow towards the highlands of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. AR days exhibit enhanced precipitation over the crescent-shaped orography of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Mean AR days indicate wetter (up to +2 mm day-1) and warmer (up to +1.5oC) conditions than all-day climatology. On AR days, while snowpack tends to decrease (up to 30%) in the Zagros Mountains, it can show decreases or increases in the Taurus Mountains depending largely on elevation. A further analysis with the aid of observations and reanalysis for the three extreme AR events indicates that ARs coinciding with large scale sensible heat transport can have notable impacts on the surface hydrometeorological conditions such as snowmelt, rain-on-snow precipitation and increasing daily discharges of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. These results suggest that ARs can have notable impacts on the hydrometeorology and water resources of the basin, particularly of lowland Mesopotamia, a region that is famous with great floods in the ancient narratives.

How to cite: Bozkurt, D., Sen, O. L., Ezber, Y., Guan, B., Viale, M., and Caglar, F.: Impacts of atmospheric rivers on the hydrometeorology of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin in the snowmelt season, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3194, 2021.

EGU21-344 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Assessment of the WRF-Hydro uncoupled hydro-meteorological model on flashy watersheds of the tropical island of New Caledonia (South-West Pacific)

Arnaud Cerbelaud, Jérôme Lefèvre, Pierre Genthon, and Christophe Menkes

Situated in the South-West Pacific, New Caledonia is a tropical island dominated by a central mountain range and is subject to cyclones, regular intense precipitation events and flash-flooding. Recent fine-scaled projections of climate change in New Caledonia show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events could be reduced by ~ 20% by 2080-2100 [Dutheil et al., 2020]. This paper investigates the ability of the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP modelling framework to represent the hydrological regime of six watersheds in New Caledonia. A nearly 2-year long WRF ideal atmospheric forcing was completed with observed precipitations from 24 rain gauges using two rainfall spatial interpolation methods at 0.2 km-resolution. This study mainly seeks to calibrate the uncoupled WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP system as well as to evaluate its performance upon short and contrasted heavy rainfall events between 2012 and 2014. Particular attention was paid to (i) the sensitivity of calibration processes to rainfall spatial interpolation methods, (ii) the consistency in modelled soil moisture storage and (iii) the reliability of hydrograph separation provided by WRF-Hydro.

After automatic calibration relying upon the DDS algorithm [Tolson and Shoemaker, 2007], streamflow simulations show overall good performance with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) greater than 0.6 on a 21-month period for all watersheds. Standard hydrological features of all studied watersheds are well reproduced. The quality of simulation is found to be decreasing with lower values of runoff coefficient. We show on three watersheds that spatial distribution of rainfall can highly condition the calibration process and thus greatly modify modelled soil moisture storage and in result the shape of simulated flash floods. WRF-Hydro’s hydrograph decomposition between surface and underground runoff is presented and compared with known characteristics of watersheds as well as with other quickflow/baseflow separation methods. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to use the uncoupled WRF-Hydro hydro-meteorological model for flash flood analysis in New Caledonia and opens a pathway to study multiple hydrological and climatic features in the region in the context of climate change.

Keywords: hydro-meteorological modelling, WRF-Hydro, Noah-MP, flash flood, rainfall spatial interpolation, hydrograph separation, baseflow, New-Caledonia

How to cite: Cerbelaud, A., Lefèvre, J., Genthon, P., and Menkes, C.: Assessment of the WRF-Hydro uncoupled hydro-meteorological model on flashy watersheds of the tropical island of New Caledonia (South-West Pacific), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-344, 2021.

EGU21-13970 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.2

Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Mapping Daily Air Temperature 

Lasyamayee L Sahoo and Subashisa Dutta

The sparsely distributed meteorological centers fails to provide enough information regarding spatial patterns. Even at places where dense meteorological stations are available, it is difficult to develop realistic gridded data due to the complex topography and climatic variability. Some of the climate as well as hydrological model require spatially continuous datasets as inputs. It is possible to obtain a continuous surface of raster datasets with the help of interpolation methods where each value is assigned based on surrounding values using specific mathematical formulas. For present study, various interpolation methods, like Inverse distance weighted, ordinary krigging, thin plate smoothing spline; has been compared for maximum and minimum temperature. Error in the interpolated data was analyzed by independent cross validation method, in which measurements like root mean square error (RMSE), mean squared relative error (MSRE), coefficient of determination (r2) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) were adopted for performance evaluation. Method with minimum error was chosen for developing the final map. It provides an effective way for mapping the meteorological variables in a topographically diverse region. In this case, an Indian state Odisha is chosen as study area. The state consists of 10 different agro-climatic zones and sees several weather systems across the year. The area suffers with floods, drought, heat waves and costal erosion almost every year with variable intensity. Strong heat waves in summer affect the human health, agriculture, construction efficiency and labour productivity. As three-fourth of the state is filled with mountains and high lands, monitoring network is sparsely distributed. Despite small latitudinal difference, temperature changes considerably with respect to both space and time. Here interpolation method plays a vital role to avoid uncertainty in modelling. Based on the generated maps, vulnerable areas on the basis of maximum temperature in summer and minimum temperature in winter is identified. Several indicators and vulnerability indices has been used.

How to cite: Sahoo, L. L. and Dutta, S.: Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Mapping Daily Air Temperature , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13970, 2021.

HS2.4.3 – Understanding the links between hydrological variability and internal/natural climate variability

EGU21-252 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

A formula for downscaling extreme sub-daily rainfall intensities

Rasmus Benestad

Global warming is associated with an increased rate of evaporation due to higher surface temperatures which also implies a higher hydrological cycle turn-around in a steady-state atmosphere with respect to the water budget. The latter is accompanied with increased atmospheric overturning and more convective activity. In addition, there have been indications of a decreasing area of 24-hr rainfall on a global scale over the last decades, suggesting that rainfall is becoming concentrated over smaller regions. There have also been indications of higher cloud tops. In sum, a consequence of an increased greenhouse effect and modified hydrological cycle is an increased probability for heavy rainfall on local scales and a greater risk of flooding. Changes in risks connected to meteorological and hydrological challenges make it necessary to adapt to new weather statistics. For instance, there is a need to estimate the frequency of heavy downpour and their return levels, both for 24-hr amounts and sub-daily timescales. It is common to account for extreme rainfall by designing infrastructure with the help of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. One problem is that the IDF curves are based on long records of hourly rainfall measurements that are not widely available. Traditional IDF curves have also been fitted assuming stationary statistics, while climate change implies non-stationary weather statistics. We propose a formula for downscaling sub-daily rainfall intensity based on 24-hr rainfall statistics that is not as limited by data availability nor assumes stationarity. This formula provides a crude and approximate and rule-of-thumb for sites with 24-hr rain gauge data and can be used in connection with downscaling of climate model results. It also represents a way of downscaling rainfall statistics in terms of the time dimension.

How to cite: Benestad, R.: A formula for downscaling extreme sub-daily rainfall intensities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-252, 2021.

EGU21-15366 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Intensification of future low-flow events in relation to projected changes in large-scale climate drivers due to climate change

Pallavi Goswami, Arpita Mondal, Christoph Rüdiger, and Tim J. Peterson

Large-scale climate processes such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influence the hydro-climatology of Southeast Australia (SEA). In the present study, we show that low-flow events in many catchments in SEA are significantly influenced by variability in these climate drivers. Extreme value distributions and Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) are used here to model low-flow characteristics such as intensity, duration and frequency with respect to these climate drivers. Further, we study how the future projections of ENSO, IOD and SAM are likely to evolve under climate change by examining the projected values of their representative indices and how they will impact low-flow events in the region. It is found that the future dry phases of these climate drivers are likely to be more dry than those in the historic period. This in turn is expected to lead to intensification of low-flow events in the future, resulting in lower availability of fresh water during occurrences of the dry phases of these climate drivers. Thus, climate change in the future is expected to significantly influence future low-flow events in the region thereby making it even more crucial for water managers to adequately manage and ensure water availability.


Keywords: low-flows, ENSO, IOD, SAM, Extreme Value Theory, Generalised Linear Models, Southeast Australia, CMIP5, RCP8.5.

How to cite: Goswami, P., Mondal, A., Rüdiger, C., and Peterson, T. J.: Intensification of future low-flow events in relation to projected changes in large-scale climate drivers due to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15366, 2021.

EGU21-3816 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Changes in mechanisms and intensity of Western U.S. floods, 1960-2013

Jessica Fayne, Huilin Huang, Mike Fischella, Yufei Liu, Zhaoxin Ban, Dongyue Li, Kyle Cavanaugh, and Dennis Lettenmaier

Extreme precipitation, a critical factor in flooding, has selectively increased with warmer temperatures in the Western U.S. Despite this, the streamflow measurements have captured no noticeable increase in large-scale flood frequency or intensity. As flood studies have mostly focused on specific flood events in particular areas, analyses of large-scale floods and their changes have been scarce. For floods during 1960-2013, we identify six flood generating mechanisms (FGMs) that are prominent across the Western U.S., including atmospheric rivers and non-atmospheric rivers, monsoons, convective storms, radiation-driven snowmelt, and rain-on-snow, in order to identify to what extent different types of floods are changing based on the dominant FGM. The inconsistency between extreme precipitation and lack of flood increase suggests that the impact of climate change on flood risk has been modulated by hydro-meteorological and physiographic processes such as sharp increases in temperature that drive increased evapotranspiration and decreased soil moisture. Our results emphasize the importance of FGMs in understanding the complex interactions of flooding and climatic changes and explain the broad spatiotemporal changes that have occurred across the vast Western U.S. for the past 50 years.

How to cite: Fayne, J., Huang, H., Fischella, M., Liu, Y., Ban, Z., Li, D., Cavanaugh, K., and Lettenmaier, D.: Changes in mechanisms and intensity of Western U.S. floods, 1960-2013, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3816, 2021.

EGU21-13973 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Hydrologic projections for Australia: understanding future changes to water availability and extremes

Ulrike Bende-Michl, Wendy Sharples, Chantal Donnelly, Elisabeth Vogel, Justin Peter, Pandora Hope, Sri Srikanthan, Margot Tuner, Alison Oke, Vjekoslav Matic, Julien Lerat, Jake Roussis, Vic CO Duong, and Robert Pipunic

Australia's large natural hydro-climatic variability has already seen many changes, such as declining rainfall in the southern part of the country. Understanding these shifts and associated impacts on water availability is an important issue for Australia, as water supply is dependent on the generation of surface water resources. Sustainable future urban and agriculture developments will depend on best available knowledge about the risks and vulnerabilities of future water availability.

To understand those risks and vulnerabilities and to mitigate the impact of a changing climate, Australia's water policy, management and infrastructure decision making needs detailed high-resolution climate and water information. This includes information on multi-decadal timescales from future projections in the context of past climate variabilities. In Australia, currently, hydrologic change information exists in various forms, ranging from multiple regional downscaling efforts, bias-correction methods and different interpretation methods for hydrologic impact assessment – all limiting a national, consistent impact assessment across multiple spatial and temporal scales. These regional downscaling and hydrological impact data collections are either not application-ready or are tailored for specific purposes only, which poses additional barriers to their use across the water and other sectors.

To overcome these barriers, the Bureau of Meteorology is soon to release a seamless national landscape water service known as the Australian Water Outlook (AWO), combining historical data on water availability with forecast products, as well as hydrological impact projections. This system's core is the Australian Landscape Water Balance model (AWRA-L) modelling hydrologic variables consistently across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. The AWRA-L model is underpinned by substantial scientific development including data assimilation approaches for model calibration as well as model evaluation approaches for past and present time scales. Additionally, consistent downscaling and bias-correction approaches are integrated for the hydrologic projections in the operational framework.

This presentation will share an overview of the soon to be released Australian Water Outlook seamless service with an emphasis on the Hydrologic Projections part: the methodology, the user centred-design, as well as the development of guidance material containing confidence statements and uncertainty assessments to help decision makers in understanding the service. The presentation will also provide an overview of the tactics we applied to ensure the applicability of the new service including demonstration cases developed in partnership with users.

How to cite: Bende-Michl, U., Sharples, W., Donnelly, C., Vogel, E., Peter, J., Hope, P., Srikanthan, S., Tuner, M., Oke, A., Matic, V., Lerat, J., Roussis, J., Duong, V. C., and Pipunic, R.: Hydrologic projections for Australia: understanding future changes to water availability and extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13973, 2021.

EGU21-9951 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Transitions between dry and wet periods in Europe during 1950–2019

Zuzana Bestakova, Petr Maca, Jan Kysely, Ujjwal Singh, Yannis Markonis, and Martin Hanel

The study deals with probabilities of transitions from arid to humid environment and vice versa in
Europe. Aridity index, defined as a ratio of potential evapotranspiration and precipitation and
representing the ratio between energy availability and water availability, is used to characterize humid
(wet) and arid (dry) regions and allows us to study transitions between individual periods (wet-wet,
wet-dry, dry-dry, dry-wet). Three gridded datasets – CRU (UEA, 2020), E-OBS (ECAD, 2020) and ERA5
(ECMWF, 2020) – are used for this purpose. The aim of the study is to compare the three datasets as
to transitions between wet and dry conditions, which are determined according to the aridity index,
and evaluate the variability in Europe over 1950–2019. The changes in the aridity index since 1950 are
found to be most pronounced in Northern and Central Europe.


references:
ECAD, 2020: E-OBS gridded dataset, available from
<https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php>.
UEA, 2020: University of East Anglia – Climatic Research Unit, available from
<https://lr1.uea.ac.uk/cru/data>.
ECMWF, 2020: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – ERA5, available from
<https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5>.

How to cite: Bestakova, Z., Maca, P., Kysely, J., Singh, U., Markonis, Y., and Hanel, M.: Transitions between dry and wet periods in Europe during 1950–2019, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9951, 2021.

EGU21-66 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley

Sergio Andres Romero-Duque, Maria Cristina Arenas-Bautista, and Leonardo David Donado

Hydrological cycle dynamics can be simulated through continuous numerical modelling in order to estimate a water budget at different time and spatial scales, taking a specific importance when considering climate change effects on the various processes that take place on a basin. With the purpose of estimating potential impacts of climate change on the basin water balance, the present study takes place on the catchment area of the Carare-Minero river, a basin located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia), a zone in which important economic activities unfold such as stockbreeding and agriculture, where regional climate change scenarios were made for the precipitation and temperature variables, along with a continuous hydrological modeling of the basin using the HEC-HMS software. The regional scenarios for the precipitation and temperature were developed through statistical downscaling based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with projections to 2100 for seven of the new set of CO2 emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that take into account different socioeconomic assumptions for climate policies, with a baseline of 25 years between 1990 and 2014; the emission scenarios evaluated from lowest to highest CO2 emission were SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The obtained data were used as an input for the model of the basin in HEC-HMS obtaining a new water balance for each scenario comparing the results with the baseline case for current conditions, resulting in an evapotranspiration increase due to higher temperatures that, alongside changes in precipitation, produces lower flows for the higher SSP’s of SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, in contrast with the low emission scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 were the changes in temperature and precipitation are less drastic generating minor alterations in the hydrological balance.

Key words: Hydrological modeling, Middle Magdalena Valley, regional climate change scenarios, water balance.

How to cite: Romero-Duque, S. A., Arenas-Bautista, M. C., and Donado, L. D.: Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-66, 2021.

EGU21-7981 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Multi-year variability in hydrological extremes in Africa: what are the main drivers?

Job Ekolu, Bastien Dieppois, Moussa Sidibe, Jonathan Eden, Yves Tramblay, Gabriele Villarini, Gil Mahé, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, and Marco Van de Wiel

Africa is affected by a high-level of temporal and spatial variability in climate, with large impacts on water resources, human lives and economies. Due to data scarcity, the impact of multi-year climate variations on hydrological variability and extremes, i.e. flood and drought, as well as how catchment properties could modulate those impacts, are generally poorly understood across the African continent. In this study, we first use machine learning algorithms to develop a new complete reconstructed daily streamflow dataset using more than 1500 stream gauges between 1950 and 2018, and covering most of Africa. We then examine historical trends and variability in hydrological extremes over the entire African continent, focusing on different hydrological characteristics, such as the timing, frequency and duration of high- and low-flow events, based on the peaks-over-threshold method. Following an assessment of the relative sensitivities of hydrological extreme indices to interannual (2-8-years) and decadal (>10-years) variability in the different regions of Africa, we analyze the respective contribution of different rainfall, temperature and soil moisture indices (e.g. frequency, duration and intensity of wet/dry or warmer/colder days) at both timescales, using relative importance analysis. We finally discuss how catchment properties (e.g. area, topography, land use/ land cover, drainage path lengths) modulate the relationship between hydrological extremes and climate.

How to cite: Ekolu, J., Dieppois, B., Sidibe, M., Eden, J., Tramblay, Y., Villarini, G., Mahé, G., Paturel, J.-E., and Van de Wiel, M.: Multi-year variability in hydrological extremes in Africa: what are the main drivers?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7981, 2021.

EGU21-13724 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

How Severe is Water Stress in the Middle East and North Africa Region?

Ashraf Rateb, Bridget R. Scanlon, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Emad Hasan

Assessing freshwater availability in the Middle East (ME) and North Africa (MENA) is crucial to sustaining the life of about ~0.5 billion people who live in this region. Rapid population growth along with climate change imposes additional stresses and limiting the reserve of freshwater resources. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission its Follow On (FO) provide an essential tool for studying terrestrial total water storages (TWS) that can be linked to different key drivers. One approach to assessing water depletion is estimating the trend in TWS. Nevertheless, the reliability in the trend is compromised by natural variability (e.g., interannual variations).  In this study, we evaluated decadal trends of the GRACE TWS for the period (2002-2020) in the MENA region, including 26 countries. We also analyzed the historical variability of climate-driven TWS (excluding human intervention) for 116 years (yr) (1901-2016) based on the WaterGAP global hydrology model (WGHM) using the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function approach. Natural variability in TWS includes the modulated seasonal cycle, interannual, decadal, and interdecadal variation. We compared the historical variability of TWS based on the WGHM model with the decadal trends in GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites (18.4 yr) based on two mascons (CSR and JPL) GRACE solutions.

Results show that the variability (e.g., standard deviation) in the climate-driven TWS from WGHM is ≤ 10 mm (1901 – 2016) throughout most of the region. Variability is higher in northern Iran, southern Turkey, western coast of the Persian Gulf, Nile River, northwestern Africa (coastal), and south of Sahara (e.g., Chad, Mali, and Sudan). Such regions with higher variability receive substantial annual precipitation or include a major surface water body (e.g., Nile river).

Decadal TWS trends are more highly negative throughout most ME, particularly most of Iran and Saudi Arabia, than in N Africa, except for Tunisia. Less severe or stable GRACE TWS trends are found in parts of the ME (Iraq, west Iran, southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman) and most of N Africa. In contrast, increasing GRACE TWS trends are dominant south of the Sahara (Chad, Sudan, Niger, and Mali) and in parts of the ME (Kuwait, W Yemen). The declining GRACE trends throughout much of the ME (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Arabian Peninsula) and parts of N Africa (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria) are considered reliable because they highly exceed the historical simulated variability of climate-driven TWS (1901 – 2016). Trends in some other localized regions are insignificant relative to historical variability (ratio < 2) in west Iran, Nile river, northwest Egypt, Morocco, and Mauritania. The total loss of water in MENA based on the GRACE period (2002-2020) is about 760 Gt, with an annual trend of -41 Gt/year and R2 0.72. MENA's total loss represent~3.5% of the annual rate of global sea-level rise with a total of ~2 mm between 2002 and 2020. Combining GRACE data with long-term simulations of TWS helps interpret recent GRACE data within the context of long-term variability and allows us to isolate the human drive contribution to TWS trends.

 

How to cite: Rateb, A., R. Scanlon, B., Müller Schmied, H., and Hasan, E.: How Severe is Water Stress in the Middle East and North Africa Region?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13724, 2021.

EGU21-10439 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

The influence of atmosphere-ocean phenomenon on rainfall and streamflow variability across temperate Australia

Jabbar Khaledi, Petter Nyman, Craig Nitschke, Patrick N.J Lane, and Trent Penman

Climate modes can have a large influence on the interannual variability in rainfall and streamflow.  Moreover, changes in their spatial-temporal patterns are likely to shape changes in hydroclimate in the future as a result of a warming climate. Modeling the links between climate modes, rainfall and streamflow is therefore important for understanding the trajectories in water availability. We examined the effects of four climate variability modes, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on variations in annual rainfall and streamflow in four hydroclimate regions in temperate Australian. Climate mode indices, rainfall, and streamflow data from 1975 to 2018 were analyzed for 92 predominately forested catchments in four study regions. The annual variation and long-term fluctuations of rainfall and streamflow in each region were explored using the coefficient of variation, trend analysis, and random forest models to examine relationships to ENSO, IOD, SAM, and IPO. Coefficient of variation analysis showed that the annual variation of streamflow in and among catchments in each region was higher than rainfall. Rainfall and streamflow in each region were strongly influenced by different climate modes, and a higher proportion of variation in rainfall was explained by climate modes. Extreme annual rainfall and streamflow in these regions are related to concurrent phases of regional climate phenomena. These results provide critical baseline information and context for a better understanding of how future spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and streamflow across temperate Australia may manifest.

How to cite: Khaledi, J., Nyman, P., Nitschke, C., Lane, P. N. J., and Penman, T.: The influence of atmosphere-ocean phenomenon on rainfall and streamflow variability across temperate Australia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10439, 2021.

EGU21-9365 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Drought variability driven by interannual and decadal teleconnection patterns in monsoon regions of Southeast China 

Kwok Pan Chun, Qing He, Bastien Dieppois, Benjamin Pohl, Ömer Yetemen, Liang Chen, Qing Yang, Ömer Lütfi Şen, Ferat Çağlar, Julian Klaus, and Nicolas Massei

Drought conditions of Southeast China are associated with the sea surface temperature warm pool in the tropical Western Pacific, which is related to low-frequency hydroclimatic patterns and their teleconnections. Empirically, the moisture influx to the region is linked to the interannual and decadal teleconnections, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific-Japan Oscillation (PJO) and the Silk Road Pattern (SRP). However, it is still unclear how those teleconnection patterns affect drought conditions in Southeast China via changes in monsoons’ dynamics or wave activities. In this study, we use ERA5 reanalysis over the 1950-2019 period to explore the impacts of the PDO, PJO and SRP on Asian monsoons’ dynamics and regional drought conditions over Southeast China, based on a self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). We specially use station data from the Greater Bay Area (GBA) which is a national key region for development in Southeast China which is affected by seasonal droughts in winters. Results indicate that drought conditions in Southeast China are significantly related to monsoons: the East Asia Monsoon (EAM), the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and the Webster-Yang Monsoon (WYM), between 1950-2019. The strength of monsoons is modulated by PDO, PJO and SRP. A negative phase of SRP corresponds to a southward shift of the Asian westerly jet, strengthening winter Asian monsoons and causing drier conditions in the GBA. Similarly, a cold phase of PDO contributes to drier conditions in the GBA, by weakening Asian monsoons. For the negative phase of PJO, the trade wind of the Walker cell is weakened by the meridional pressure dipole over the West Pacific adjacent to the Southeast China coast. This pressure dipole reduces moisture influx to the continent by the weakened trade wind and leads to less precipitation over East China. Such three climate factors are also interacted through the modulations of monsoons and wave-activities. An extension of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux shows that the SRP relates to convective and dynamic wave-activities, which could explain changes in monsoons’ dynamics and drought conditions in Southeast China. To investigate the future drought conditions over Southeast China, bias-corrected historical and RCP8.5 scenarios are used for six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (i.e. ACCESS1, BCC, CNRM, IPSL, MPI, and GFDL) between 1861-2100. Among six models, IPSL and GFDL models reproduce the teleconnections well between changes in the monsoons and drought conditions over the GBA, for both historical simulations and future projections. Our results provide insights into the mechanisms of teleconnection patterns affecting drought monitoring and risk management in Southeast China. 

How to cite: Chun, K. P., He, Q., Dieppois, B., Pohl, B., Yetemen, Ö., Chen, L., Yang, Q., Şen, Ö. L., Çağlar, F., Klaus, J., and Massei, N.: Drought variability driven by interannual and decadal teleconnection patterns in monsoon regions of Southeast China , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9365, 2021.

EGU21-12878 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Influence of low-frequency variability on high and low groundwater levels: example of aquifers in northern France

Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Delphine Allier, Matthieu Fournier, and Hélène Bessiere

Groundwater fluctuations exhibit very often well-pronounced low-frequency variability (multi-annual to decadal timescales), linked to catchment and aquifer ability to smooth out rapid fluctuations from precipitation (low-pass filtering), especially when their characteristic time is long. This low-frequency variability, generated by large-scale climate variability and modulated by the physical properties of hydrosystems, is clearly imprinted in aquifers of northern France. Many recent researches addressed the issue of the capability of global climate models to reproduce low-frequency variability (most of the time multidecadal). For hydrological processes such as groundwater levels, which variance can be dominated by such low-frequency ranges, it may then appear crucial to provide assessment on how very high or very low levels are sensitive to such low-frequency variability. In this study, we investigate how low-frequency variability (from multi-annual to interdecadal timescales) may generate very high or very low groundwater levels (higher or lower than percentiles 80% and 20%, respectively). To test such hypotheses, our approach consists of breaking down groundwater level signals into timescale components using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform in order to get wavelet details at different timescales. Multi-annual ~7 yr and interdecadal ~17 yr components appeared to be the dominant components of low-frequency variability of the signals. We then substracted these components (either one or both) and simply examined how many values remained over or below the selected threshold.

Results highlight that the number of events generated by low-frequency components is consistently closely linked to their contribution to groundwater level variability. Nearly 100% of high and low groundwater levels in inertial aquifers, that exhibit a large predominance of interdecadal variability, are generated by this timescale. At least 50% of high and low groundwater levels in inertial aquifers displaying a combination of interdecadal and multi-annual variabilities are generated by the combination of these two timescales. Finally, less than 50% of high and low groundwater levels in mixed aquifers (i.e. with a well pronounced low-frequency variability superimposed to annual variability) are generated by the multi-annual and interdecadal variabilities. In all studied aquifers with various dynamics, we notice a higher sensitivity of low groundwater levels to low-frequency variability than high groundwater levels.

Across aquifers of northern metropolitan France, particularly in the chalk of the Paris Basin, we observe quite a clear dependence of well-known historical high and low groundwater levels to low-frequency variability. In particular, the 2001 high levels and the 1992 low levels are seemingly generated by concomitant multi-annual and interdecadal high levels, and concomitant multi-annual and interdecadal low levels, respectively. On the other hand, the 1995 high levels and 1998 low levels are produced by a multi-annual high level attenuated by an interdecadal low level, and a multi-annual low level attenuated by an interdecadal high level, respectively. These phasings are also observed in precipitation and effective precipitation a few time in advance (ranging from 2 months to 1.5 years). Finally, the contribution of multi-annual and interdecadal variabilities to make the groundwater levels reach or exceed one selected threshold is directly influenced by their prominence in groundwater levels variability.

How to cite: Baulon, L., Massei, N., Allier, D., Fournier, M., and Bessiere, H.: Influence of low-frequency variability on high and low groundwater levels: example of aquifers in northern France, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12878, 2021.

Wetland ecosystems in river valleys are strongly related to hydrological and climatic conditions. Accurate exploration of these relationships is essential to achieving a proper projection of changes in these ecosystems under the climate change. The aim of the research is to identify the effects of climate change on the way the flood and inundation are formed in the natural river valleys of the temperate zone.  The research is conducted in the Biebrza catchment, which is located in north-eastern Poland and has an area of about 7000 km2. Because of its natural character, this area is considered as a reference area for wetland research. For the study area an integrated hydrological model (HydroGeoSphere) was developed and used to simulate the contribution of various sources of water in inundation and floods in the period 1900-2015. The preliminary conclusions with respect to hydrology-climate linkage as well as the lessons learned from the model development and calibration are presented.

How to cite: Berezowski, T.: Climate-hydrology interactions explored using an integrated groundwater-surface water hydrological model for over a 100 year period in a natural temperate zone regional catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1314, 2021.

EGU21-8881 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Evaluating linear trends with respect to past decadal variability can help us assess the severity of GRACE observed water storage change

Jonathan L. Bamber, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Paul Bates, Nico Sneeuw, and Richard M. Westaway

Often in geosciences, short time series are investigated to infer a linear trend (secular change), and the magnitude of trend is used to infer severity of change without considering the spatiotemporal variability of the observable. Therefore, it is not always known to what extent resultant trends are truly representative of severity of change, or whether the trends in short time series are driven by long wavelength signals that can only become apparent when additional years of data are available. Furthermore, same value of trend can have different interpretation over different regions.

GRACE, a novel satellite mission to monitor water mass redistribution, was launched in 2002 and a decade later several studies analyzed linear trends in GRACE time series to claim that some regions were experiencing unprecedented changes in regional water storage. Studies published more recently further suggest that some of those regions have recovered and some new regions have emerged as endangered. This update in our knowledge is driven by additional GRACE data that became available in the last five years, demonstrating that as the time series became longer, inferences from studying trends changed. In this presentation, we demonstrate that multi-decadal natural variability in water cycle influenced previous interpretations of linear trends from relatively short (<20 year) GRACE time series. We propose a new metric (trend to variability ratio or TVR) that incorporates standard deviation of historical natural variability to better interpret the severity of trends inferred from GRACE. Since, natural hydrological variability is different for different regions, same value of trend has different interpretation for different river catchments. Using this metric, we find that several regions that were thought to be losing water at a moderate rate are actually more endangered and vice-versa. We also provide a map that demarcates river catchments that have experienced severe water storage change between 2003 to 2015.

How to cite: Bamber, J. L., Vishwakarma, B. D., Bates, P., Sneeuw, N., and Westaway, R. M.: Evaluating linear trends with respect to past decadal variability can help us assess the severity of GRACE observed water storage change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8881, 2021.

EGU21-3296 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff with a nonlinear hybrid model

Yanhua Qin, Xun Sun, Baofu Li, and Bruno Merz

Understanding the contributions of potential drivers on runoff is of great importance for the sustainable management of water resources. In this study, we develop a nonlinear hybrid model, which integrates extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD), back propagation artificial neural networks (BPANN) and weights connection method, to represent the relationships between different drivers and runoff. ESMD allows to decompose the times series of drivers and runoff into different components. BPANN is then employed to simulate the relationship between the drivers and runoff at each time scale separately. The performance of this model is compared with multiple linear regression (MLR). We select the mountainous area of the Hotan River Basin as case study area. The results indicated that runoff exhibits oscillation periods of 2, 9 and 14 years. Climate variability strongly affects runoff and accounts for 81% of the runoff variation, while human activities play a minor role, accounting for 8%. In all performance measures, the proposed model substantially outperforms MLR. The proposed model can represent nonlinear relations and simulate the association between drivers and runoff at different time scales (even opposite associations), which is the improvement of this study.

How to cite: Qin, Y., Sun, X., Li, B., and Merz, B.: Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff with a nonlinear hybrid model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3296, 2021.

EGU21-8609 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.3

Integration of Hidden Markov States in a hydrological model calibration/validation protocol

Étienne Guilpart, Vahid Espanmanesh, Amaury Tilmant, and François Anctil

Due to climate changes, the stationary assumption in hydrology has become obsolete. Moreover, the uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the Earth's climate and its impact on flow regimes is still large. Over the last decade, new risk management approaches have been proposed to support water resources planning under deep uncertainty. Those approaches rely at some point on a hydrological model to derive time series of streamflows for various hydro-climatic scenarios. One of the key issue is to make sure that the hydrological model is robust, i.e. that it performs well over contrasted hydro-climatic conditions. The differential split-sample test principle proposed by Klemes in 1986 recommends partitioning the time series into numerous and independent subperiods with different stationary climate features. Then, the hydrological model calibration is achieved on a specific climate period, and the validation on other(s). Classical detection methods commonly used to partition the times series, such as Mann-Kendall test or Pettitt test, can only detect a single change point, and thus are unable to handle complex climate sequences with multiple change points. We propose a calibration/validation protocol of hydrological models which rely on both the differential split-sample test and on an Hidden Markov Model to identify a succession of subsequences in a time series based on the state of the underlying process. We applied the proposed protocol on the Senegal River (West Africa). The hydrological model used is the conceptual GR2M model. Results show that (i) when the river discharges time series does not display a clear climate trend, and have multiple change points, classical rupture tests are not suitable. Hidden Markov Models are a good alternative as long as the climate sub-sequences are long enough (typically around 30 years or more); (ii) including a Hidden Markov Models in such protocol open up the range of possibilities for calibrate/validate, which can lead to an enhancement of the criterion function (but not necessarily).

Klemes, V.: Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 31, 13-24, 415 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668609491024, 1986.

How to cite: Guilpart, É., Espanmanesh, V., Tilmant, A., and Anctil, F.: Integration of Hidden Markov States in a hydrological model calibration/validation protocol, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8609, 2021.

HS2.4.4 – Hydrological extremes: from droughts to floods

EGU21-1505 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Drought spatiotemporal propagation via land feedbacks

Diego G. Miralles, Dominik L. Schumacher, Jessica Keune, and Paul A. Dirmeyer

The predicted increase in drought occurrence and intensity will pose serious threats to global future water and food security. This was hinted by several historically unprecedented droughts over the last two decades, taking place in Europe, Australia, Amazonia or the USA. It has been hypothesised that the strength of these events responded to self-reinforcement processes related to land–atmospheric feedbacks: as rainfall deficits dry out soil and vegetation, the evaporation of land water is reduced, then the local air becomes too dry to yield rainfall, which further enhances drought conditions. Despite the 'local' nature of these feedbacks, their consequences can be remote, as downwind regions may rely on evaporated water transported by winds from drought-affected locations. Following this rationale, droughts may not only self-reinforce locally, due to land atmospheric feedbacks, but self-propagate in the downwind direction, always conditioned on atmospheric circulation. This propagation is not only meteorological but relies on soil moisture drought, and may lead to a downwind cascading of impacts on water resources. However, a global capacity to observe these processes is lacking, and thus our knowledge of how droughts start and evolve, and how this may change as climate changes, remains limited. Furthermore, climate and forecast models are still immature when it comes to representing the influences of land on rainfall.

Here, the largest global drought events are studied to unravel the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks during the spatiotemporal propagation of these events. We based our study on satellite and reanalysis records of soil moisture, evaporation, air humidity, winds and precipitation, in combination with a Lagrangian framework that can map water vapor trajectories and explore multi-dimensional feedbacks. We estimate the reduction in precipitation in the direction of drought propagation that is caused by the upwind soil moisture drought, and isolate this effect from the influence of potential evaporation and circulation changes. By doing so, the downwind lack of precipitation caused by upwind soil drought via water vapor deficits, and hence the impact of drought self-propagation, is determined. We show that droughts occurring in dryland regions are particularly prone to self-propagate, as evaporation there tends to respond strongly to enhanced soil stress and precipitation is frequently convective. This kind of knowledge may be used to improve climate and forecast models and can be exploited to develop geo-engineering mitigation strategies to help prevent drought events from aggravating during their early stages.

How to cite: Miralles, D. G., Schumacher, D. L., Keune, J., and Dirmeyer, P. A.: Drought spatiotemporal propagation via land feedbacks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1505, 2021.

EGU21-2624 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

The potential of data driven approaches for quantifying hydrological extremes

Sandra Margrit Hauswirth, Marc Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders

Recent droughts have shown that national water systems are facing increasing challenges over the last few years. As such, the Netherlands has seen increasing needs to adapt their water management in order to improve their preparedness for current and future drought events. Ideally, the necessary information needed for operational water management decisions should be readily available ahead in time and/or computed in a flexible and efficient way to ensure the various management actions. In this study we show that in addition to the physically based hydrological models, the upcoming and promising trend of incorporating machine learning (ML) in hydrology can increase the information produced to support national and operational water management.

To investigate the potential of ML for this case, we assessed 5 different ML methods to predict the following hydrological variables relevant for water management at a national scale: timeseries of discharge, groundwater levels, surface water levels and surface water temperatures. We developed a unified workflow for all the methods and variables of interest. As inputs, we only used a limited set of hydro-meteorological variables and general water management policies that are readily available on a daily basis and that can be used when the ML methods are used in seasonal forecasting mode.

We show that all methods have a good performance, with a normalized RMSE ranging between 0.0 and 0.4, and Random Forest outperforming other methods. This performance remains stable for low flows, where we observe that complex ML methods outperform simpler algorithms. The addition of water management in the ML routine increases overall performance, although limited. Finally, we observe that locations further upstream show a better performance due to the limited water management influence and close proximity to input observations.

Our study shows that ML has potential in predicting different hydrological variables at various locations at a national scale with only a simple input data set of 5 meteorological and hydrological variables. We additionally were able to capture and incorporate water management information in our analysis, creating a base for future experiments where a combination of seasonal forecasting and scenario analysis might reveal ML-informed mitigation strategies. As such, our approach may improve the preparedness of the national water system of the Netherlands for future drought events.

How to cite: Hauswirth, S. M., Bierkens, M., Beijk, V., and Wanders, N.: The potential of data driven approaches for quantifying hydrological extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2624, 2021.

EGU21-10065 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile

Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, Rene Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis

In the context of climate change, it is important to understand whether drought conditions over the growing season of agricultural crops have changed over the past decades. Common drought metrics used for such assessments compare hydrometeorological anomalies using a static time window. However, the growing season varies among crops as well as in space; driven by climatic differences, and time; driven by e.g. changes in climate or crop-genotypes. Focusing on Southwestern Germany, we aim to investigate how the ranking of drought years varies between crops as well as among static and spatiotemporally varying growing season scenarios. First, we derived annual information on the timing of different phenological phases of two crops, winter wheat and maize, resp. early and late covering, from observations available from the German Weather Services. We then interpolated the timing of these phenological phases to 1 km resolution grids covering all agricultural areas in the study region, using static and spatiotemporally varying interpolation scenarios. Following, we extracted climatological timeseries for all agricultural grid cells and used those to simulate the climatic water balance as well as soil moisture for each grid cell with the hydrological model TRAIN. Finally, we derived for each year different drought metrics, i.e. anomalies in precipitation, temperature, climatic water balance and minimum soil moisture, and correlated those with crop yield anomalies. Results revealed distinct differences in the start and end of the growing season among considered crops. Further, the timing of different phenological phases varied by over a month in both space and time. During the most prominent drought years (2003, 2015, 2018), the growing season of both crops was particularly dry, independent on whether a fixed or variable growing season was considered. On the other hand, there were also some crop specific drought years, e.g., 1991 for maize or 2008 for winter wheat. The difference in hydrometeorological anomalies derived for static and variable growing seasons mainly relates to differences in temperature, but also affected the ranking of some drought years according to other hydrometeorological variables. More apparent were differences between drought metrics, e.g. between the climatic water balance and minimum soil moisture. From these metrics, especially minimum soil moisture correlated well with maize yields, whereas correlations with winter wheat were generally weak for all metrics. To conclude, crop specific agricultural drought assessments could benefit from a crop-relevant growing season specific definition of drought.

How to cite: Tijdeman, E. and Menzel, L.: Crop specific assessment of droughts in the growing season considering the spatiotemporal variability in phenology, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14740, 2021.

EGU21-1037 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Characterizing Germany’s 2018 drought in the context of wet and dry spells since 1901

Mathilde Erfurt, Rüdiger Glaser, and Kerstin Stahl

In 2018, large areas of central and northern Europe were affected by an extreme drought. The water deficit propagated through the hydrologic cycle causing precipitation, soil moisture and, towards the end of 2018, streamflow and groundwater deficits. In Germany many socio-economic sectors were severely affected by the drought, e.g. the forestry sector has still not recovered. Main drivers for drought propagation are precipitation deficits. However, the natural variability of dry and wet precipitation patterns over time and space make characterization of droughts and predictions of impacts still challenging.

This study investigates German meteorological drought characteristics within general wet and dry spells since 1901 using station based daily precipitation data. Daily, monthly and seasonal aggregated indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to characterize duration, severity and spatial extent of the 2018 drought. These characteristics were then compared with events of extreme droughts since 1901. Even though the meteorological drought of 2018 was extreme considering only precipitation data, we found comparable extremes in the past, for instance 1949 or 1964. However, based on what we observe in the SPI-12, clusters of extreme dry years in the 20th century were often followed by clusters of above average wet years, probably leading to a reduction of impacts in the following years. Since 2003, however, dry patterns predominate. Even though annual precipitation amounts are predicted to increase slightly in the study region this analysis shows the importance of analyzing sub annual as well as multi-year characteristics of precipitation patterns.

Including both wet and dry conditions when characterizing the severity of current drought events may improve our understanding of extreme meteorological drought events causing severe and long lasting impacts.

How to cite: Erfurt, M., Glaser, R., and Stahl, K.: Characterizing Germany’s 2018 drought in the context of wet and dry spells since 1901, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1037, 2021.

EGU21-10879 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Investigating the hydrometeorological impacts of the 2013-2015 extreme drought in southeast Brazil by combining cluster analysis with land surface modeling

Rafael Rosolem, Jun Zhang, Lucas Pontes, Humberto da Rocha, and Leonardo Domingues

The 2013-2015 drought in the southeast Brazil was considered the worst since 1930, affecting more than 21 million people in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region. Previous studies have focused on the meteorological mechanisms and their impact based on low-resolution remote sensing datasets. Here, we simulated this entire drought event at 1 km2 resolution using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). The simulated domain covers large portions of the state of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais with total area of about 200 thousand km2 (458 km by 463 km). We first investigate the impact of using both global and local datasets (soil and vegetation cover maps) on model performance by comparing the simulated evapotranspiration against the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model. We found that using additional local land cover information together with vegetation-specific leaf area index from remote sensing has significantly improved the model performance while the local soil information has limited influence. Preliminary results suggest a lag of about one month for the drought to propagate from rainfall decrease in December/2013 to soil moisture depletion in January/2014. In addition, we combined the predicted results from JULES with a cluster analysis within the region to further categorized the domain into five groups clusters based on climatic and soil properties. This was done to better understand and explain the key controlling factors associated with the drought over these groups. Overall, we found that clusters with larger soil water storage capacity and slower drainage present more resilience to the drought. This study presents a detailed analysis on the impact of the extreme drought based on a high-resolution land surface model for a large domain in southeastern Brazil, and reveal the specific characteristics of drought propagation processes throughout the 2013-2015 period, adding a more hydrologically-oriented view on the impacts of the 2013-2015 drought to the meteorological findings discussed previously.

How to cite: Rosolem, R., Zhang, J., Pontes, L., da Rocha, H., and Domingues, L.: Investigating the hydrometeorological impacts of the 2013-2015 extreme drought in southeast Brazil by combining cluster analysis with land surface modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10879, 2021.

EGU21-1181 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Extreme aridity in the south-eastern part of Romania

Viorica Nagavciuc, Monica Ionita, and Cătălin-Constantin Roibu

Drought is one of the most complex phenomena which may have a strong impact on agriculture, society, water resources, and ecosystems. In Romania, drought has a very strong impact on agriculture and affects 7.1 million ha, which represent 48% of the total agricultural land. The south, southeast, and eastern parts of Romania, including the Dobrogea region, are the most affected areas. During extremely dry years the average yields of various crops represent only 35% ÷ 60% of the potential yields. By employing three different drought indices (e.g. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), we show that there is a significant trend towards aridity especially from the 1980’s up to present in the south-eastern part of Romania. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at Sulina station (situated in the Doborgea region) for 12 months (SPEI12) indicates that over the last 30 years, this region was continuously affected by prolong droughts and there is a statistically significant shift towards dryer periods over the last 30 years compared to the period 1877 – 1990, thus indicating a critical situation for this region. Over the last 30 years, the long-term drought variability (SPI12, SPEI12, and PDSI) has increased both in duration and intensity up to maximum rates. The driest summers on record, over the region, are 2001, 2003 and 2007. These extremely dry summers are unprecedented throughout the observational record (~145 years). The history of drought in Dobrogea includes also many dry years, of which are to be mentioned: 1894, 1888, 1904, 1918, 1934, 1945.

How to cite: Nagavciuc, V., Ionita, M., and Roibu, C.-C.: Extreme aridity in the south-eastern part of Romania, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1181, 2021.

EGU21-14328 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Practical tool for drought characteristics calculation

Mahyar Mottaghi Zadeh and Maral Habibi

There are many ways to identify and monitor drought conditions. Scarcely are tools that calculate drought characteristics, The "SDF Calculator" works to bring monitoring tools to the public so they can assess drought conditions, this tool is used to assess and identify drought and its intensity.

Drought severity refers to the absolute sum of consecutive SDI values below a given threshold level while drought duration is the number of consecutive months that SDI is below that threshold, and drought frequency is a number of months with drought condition (means SPI < -0.5 or any given threshold that is desire, the threshold of drought index is a value that an index faces to drought condition. In every index, this value can be changed. For example, in many indices, the threshold of drought starts from zero or less zero. In other words, when the value of an index is calculating then all the values located in the drought classes, refer to the severity of the drought.

Droughts and exceptionally wet periods are regional phenomena, which are considered as major environmental extremes, especially in semiarid regions of the world. The development of severity-duration-frequency (SDF) relationships of droughts and wet periods is important in hydrological and climatic plannings in any country.

In this study, we aimed to offer a novel software model to be used for a quantitative description of droughts and wet periods to provide an overview of drought intensity and analyzing their severity, frequency, and duration. In addition, we have been able to develop a state-of-the-art bespoke software application, so the users are able to analyze drought based on the regional thresholds. While most of the analysis applications have used programming languages such as R or Python, due to the lack of software libraries in the .NET development environment, we have managed to offer our development environment based on .NET Core and C# programming language. The software application accepts inputs from various file formats or APIs, processes the data, and demonstrates the outcome in different graphs and maps depending on the geographical location of study areas. The outputs are not only can be exported as different formats to be used in big data applications but also might be exposed as web APIs to be used in live applications.

 

 Keywords: Drought characteristics, SDF Calculator, API, Standardized Drought Indices (SDI)

How to cite: Mottaghi Zadeh, M. and Habibi, M.: Practical tool for drought characteristics calculation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14328, 2021.

EGU21-1531 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation-based drought indices in Kucuk Menderes River Basin, Turkey

Yonca Cavus, Ebru Eris, Hafzullah Aksoy, Halil Ibrahim Burgan, Hakan Aksu, and Hulya Boyacioglu
Drought is one of the extreme hydrological events which may seriously affect the majority of the population in many ways such as economically, socially and environmentally. Researches on the drought analysis may prevent these adverse consequences to a significant extent. Droughts are characterized by using various meteorological and hydrological indicators (i.e. precipitation, temperature, streamflow etc.). These indicators are used to derive drought indices. Spatio-temporal drought is analysed both in time and space by using drought indices based on site-specific precipitation and temperature data. In this study, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using only precipitation data and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using precipitation and temperature data are considered at various time scales changing from 1 to 24 months for a more detailed drought characterization. On the other hand, so-called Dimensionless Precipitation Anomaly Index (DPAI) is introduced at annual scale in this study. The DPAI is used to determine dry periods from the recorded precipitation data. Cases are studied in Kucuk Menderes River Basin located in the Aegean region of Turkey. Precipitation and temperature data obtained from five meteorological stations over the river basin are used to determine drought index time series. Drought risk graphs and drought severity maps are obtained from time series of the drought indices. Drought risk is the likelihood of the drought occurrence that is quantified with the frequency calculated from the SPI and SPEI time series. As for the drought severity maps, they are created to understand its basin-scale variation by using the severities calculated from the dry periods of SPI and SPEI time series. Results show that the prolonged severe historical dry periods of the river basin are correctly identified by the drought indices. These indices used in this study based on easily available meteorological data are simple tools to explain temporal variability at a site or spatial variability over the basin. Also, the spatial distribution of drought severity over the river basin does not show a significant variability though more severe droughts are observed in the inner part of the river basin. Mild drought dominates at each time scale, this stems from the tendency of precipitation fluctuating around the average. Results in the study have considerable importance both in science and practice of drought. Although the methodology established from basic tools using meteorological data, the outcomes of the study are expected to become beneficial for drought management plans.

How to cite: Cavus, Y., Eris, E., Aksoy, H., Burgan, H. I., Aksu, H., and Boyacioglu, H.: Spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation-based drought indices in Kucuk Menderes River Basin, Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1531, 2021.

Drought is not only a multiscale (e.g., temporal, spatial) but also a multidimensional (e.g., onset, offset, duration, frequency, magnitude, intensity) phenomenon, and ecosystem production and respiration may respond to each drought dimension differently.  Although multiple reports exist in literature on the drought impact on ecosystem productivity, it remains unclear how each component of drought impacts ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and how the different drought dimensions interacted with each other on their impacts. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive drought impact assessment on forest GPP, NEE, and RECO including all the drought dimensions using FLUXNET observations and multiple time-scales of Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Our results indicated that while most earlier drought studies focused on simultaneous and post-drought conditions, the cumulative drought impacts and drought timing are more significantly impacting forest carbon uptake than simultaneous drought severity. Temporal standardization based meteorological drought indices could be used to accurately reflect plant water stress if antecedent and cumulative drought conditions are considered.

How to cite: Jiao, W. and Wang, L.: Quantifying the responses of ecosystem production and respiration to drought time scale, intensity, timing and lagged response: A FLUXNET synthesis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1841, 2021.

EGU21-473 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Mapping the spatiotemporal development of groundwater drought from data: the 2018-2019 drought in the Netherlands

Esther Brakkee, Marjolein van Huijgevoort, and Ruud Bartholomeus

The 2018-2019 drought in northwestern Europe caused severe damage to a wide range of sectors, and has made clear that even in temperate-climate countries adaptations are needed to cope with increasing future drought frequencies. A crucial component of drought strategies is to monitor the status of groundwater resources. However, providing up-to-date assessments of regional groundwater drought development remains challenging due to the limited quality of available data. We set up a time series modelling-based method for data preparation to map the spatiotemporal development of the 2018-2019 groundwater drought in the southeastern Netherlands, based on a large amount of monitoring data. The data preparation method was evaluated for its usefulness and reliability for groundwater drought studies and prediction. The analysis showed that the 2018-2019 meteorological drought caused extreme groundwater drought throughout the southeastern Netherlands, breaking 30-year records almost everywhere. Drought onset and duration were strongly variable in space. Groundwater drought development appeared to be governed dominantly by the spatial distribution of rainfall and the geological-topographic setting. The time series modelling-based data preparation method was found a useful tool for the given situation to enable a detailed, consistent record of groundwater drought development. The time series simulations were generally found to be reliable; however, the use of time series simulations rather than direct measurement series may bias drought estimations especially at a local scale, and underestimate spatial variability. Finally, time series modelling was also found a promising tool for regional-scale drought nowcasting and prediction. Further development of time-series based validation and simulation methods, combined with accessible and consistent monitoring data, will be valuable to enable better groundwater drought monitoring in the future. 

How to cite: Brakkee, E., van Huijgevoort, M., and Bartholomeus, R.: Mapping the spatiotemporal development of groundwater drought from data: the 2018-2019 drought in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-473, 2021.

EGU21-71 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Changing low flow seasonality in Central European headwaters

Vojtech Vlach, Ondrej Ledvinka, and Milada Matouskova

In the environment of the changing climate in Central Europe, the seasonality and magnitude of low flow events and hydrological droughts are projected to change in the near future. Ongoing increases in the air temperature, rates of evaporation and decreasing snow cover will significantly affect the summer deficit volumes even in the rivers of humid montane and highland areas in mid-latitudes. However, what if the significant changes have already been happening during the last decades? Therefore, this research is focused on analysis of the variability and seasonality of low flow events and hydrological drought events in fifteen near-natural catchments along the Czech–German and Czech–Polish national borders. To quantify the low flow regime changes of the study regions in the last 52 years (1968–2019), we applied tools from the R package lfstat. The 30-year moving averages of seasonality ratio (SR) and the seasonality index (SI) were derived to address the degree of change in each catchment. Moreover, the 7-day and 30-day mean summer minimum discharges were computed, as well as the streamflow deficit volumes for every episode of hydrological drought. The results showed a continual increase in the proportion of summer low flow and drought events during the study period along with a significant shift in the average date of low flow occurrence towards the beginning of the year. The most marked shifts in low flow seasonality were found mainly in catchments with the average altitude 800–1000 m a. s. l. Conversely, the low flow regime in catchments above 1000 m a. s. l. and also in the catchments below 800 m a. s. l. remained nearly stable throughout the 1968–2019 period. Moreover, the analysis of 7- and 30-day mean summer minimum discharges indicated a much-diversified pattern in the behavior of long-term trends than it was expected.

How to cite: Vlach, V., Ledvinka, O., and Matouskova, M.: Changing low flow seasonality in Central European headwaters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-71, 2021.

In recent decades, an increasing frequency and severity of meteorological and hydrological droughts has been observed in most parts of Europe, including Poland. This is due to (among other factors) increasing atmospheric water demand, longer rainless periods, especially during the growing season, and decreasing winter snow retention. In consequence, a widespread soil moisture drying cascades to evaporative stress limiting the ecosystems productivity. Thus, a quantification of such events might give a better understanding of underlying inter-connected mechanisms. A range of different single or multiple indices are already in use to quantify the drought duration, severity and intensity. Moreover, recently introduced dedicated software tools help to conduct the spatial-temporal analysis of drought propagation through the hydrological system. In this study, I try to answer the question when, where and how the most severe droughts have been occurring during the last four decades, and in particular in the 21st century. Resulting from the weather extremes (precipitation and air temperature anomalies), the cascading impacts are analyzed as they subsequently occur through a subsurface soil system, and then translate into the evaporative stress and vegetation health conditions. The underlying assumption is that relevant drought indices might be derived from the reanalysis products including variables such as precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration and corresponding soil moisture estimates. For a relatively large territory (in this case over  300 thousand sq. kilometers) such data provide consistent set of variables allowing the multi-year analysis. Here, I used recently developed ERA5-land data, validated against basic variables acquired from the E-OBS data. First, drought events were identified using standardized indices at the 1-3-6 month time scales. Then, following a threshold approach, Contiguous Drought Area analysis was conducted in each time step for the growing season. Subsequently, the imprints of soil moisture depletion were detected in vegetation health quantified independently by remote sensing indices at relevant resolution.  This study provides an evidence of moderate, severe and extreme drought occurrence. Recent biggest drought events occurred in 2003, 2005, 2006,  2015, 2018 and 2019 as a consequence of high monthly precipitation deficits reaching 100% of the long-term norm, and the air temperature 1-5 degree C higher as referred to average monthly  thermal conditions.

How to cite: Somorowska, U.: Severe drought events inducing soil moisture depletion and evaporative stress across Poland during 1981-2019, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6509, 2021.

EGU21-4063 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Implication of multi drought definitions to identify streamflow drought across Europe

Henny A.J. Van Lanen and Samuel J. Sutanto

Several approaches to identify hydrological drought exist, which result in differences in drought frequency, timing, duration, and deficit volume (drought characteristics) using the same hydrometeorological data as input. This has created confusion within the hydro-meteorological community, as well as in operational water management services on the difference in drought characteristics obtained with the different approaches. The aim of this study, therefore, is to provide a comprehensive overview of the differences of hydrological drought, i.e. streamflow drought, using different identification approaches for the pan-European river network (>10,000 river grid cells). Time series of daily streamflow data were obtained from the LISFLOOD hydrological model forced with gridded meteorological observations from 1990 to 2018. Streamflow droughts were detected using the daily and monthly Variable Threshold methods (VTD and VTM), daily and monthly Fixed Threshold methods (FTD and FTM), and the Standardized Streamflow Index with 1-month accumulation period (SSI-1). For the threshold methods the Q80 (flow that is equaled or exceeded 80 percent of the time) is applied, whereas for the SSI a threshold of about -1 is used. We applied a centered 30-day moving average (30DMA) smoothing technique to the daily flow data to reduce the number of minor droughts. This is the first study that compares all these drought identification approaches in such a systematic way at this large scale. Our results (pan-European maps, tables) clearly show that characteristics of streamflow droughts derived with different approaches deviate, partly associated with different climate regions across Europe. The daily threshold methods (VTD and FTD) identify twice as much drought events than the monthly threshold methods (VTM and FTM) due to the daily resolution and minor droughts, even with smoothing. Average duration of FT droughts is longer than VT droughts. In addition, FT droughts have higher drought deficit volumes than VT droughts (~ 30-60%, dependent on climate region), whereas using monthly data (VTM and FTM) result in higher deficits (~10-60%) than daily data (VTD and FTD). In northern and central European regions (Köppen- Geiger Dfb, Dfc and ET climates), the variable threshold methods (VTD and VTM) generally detect drought earlier (March-July) than the fixed thresholds (FTD and FTM) (July-October). In the western European regions and the Mediterranean differences in timing among identification approaches are not so clear. The characteristics of SSI-1 drought, in general, are close to what is being identified with the VTM approach. Differences in drought characteristics highlight the importance of whether end-users should take seasonality into account or not (VT and SSI-1 versus FT) and consider temporal variability (daily versus monthly). Certainly, there is no unique hydrological drought definition that fits all purposes; hence we suggest that users should clearly agree among themselves upon a sharp definition on which type of streamflow drought is required to be identified for a specific application.

How to cite: Van Lanen, H. A. J. and Sutanto, S. J.: Implication of multi drought definitions to identify streamflow drought across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4063, 2021.

EGU21-87 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Spatiotemporal Clustering of Hydrological Droughts in Peninsular India

Poulomi Ganguli, Bhupinderjeet Singh, and Aparna Raut

Drought is considered one of the costliest climate extremes that have wide impacts on humans and ecosystems. Understanding different drought stages, for example, onset, propagation, and its recovery, especially for tropical (the vulnerable region in Earth’s climate system) catchments are crucial for ecosystem sustainability and food security. Utilizing gauge-based quality-controlled daily streamflow records from 98 catchments of rain-fed Peninsular River Basins (PRB) in India, here we investigate different phases of hydrological droughts in a multi-stage framework. While several studies so far have investigated the propagation of hydrological droughts at a monthly resolution, a credible understanding of drought dynamics requires analyzing low-flow series at a higher spatial and temporal resolution, ensuring the issuance of timely alerts related to regional water scarcity.  Owing to high seasonality in the daily streamflow records, a variable threshold approach is adopted to delineate streamflow-based drought events. To assess the temporal evolution of droughts, the events are categorized into various inter-related phases, i.e., growth, persistence, and recovery stage over the study period 1965 – 2018. For most of the gauges, the mean timing of drought onset mostly lies between August and September revealing failure of monsoon as the primary causal factor for drought development in peninsular catchments. Furthering this, we identify four distinct hydrological drought regimes, which includes, Regime 1: persistent droughts with longer duration and moderate deficit volume with average termination during mid-monsoon (in September). These gauges are mostly situated in Central India and typically show a longer recovery time coincided with shorter return times (i.e., the time between two consecutive drought events), making it one of the most vulnerable regions in PRB; Regime 2: droughts with a shorter duration, least deficit volume with average termination in October, the post-monsoon period. These gauges are located in the western part of the country; Regime 3: droughts with the highest variability in drought deficit volume with the largest subsurface contribution from groundwater recharge. These sites are primarily located in eastern India and do not show any specific trend in the termination period; Regime 4: droughts with least regularity in drought termination with the average termination month clustered around November. These gauges are mostly concentrated in the southwestern part of the country. Our findings add value to the systematic understanding of hydrological drought propagations in rain-fed catchments, which serves as a basis for exploring future changes in droughts under concurrent shifts in rainfall and temperature extremes in a warming climate. 

How to cite: Ganguli, P., Singh, B., and Raut, A.: Spatiotemporal Clustering of Hydrological Droughts in Peninsular India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-87, 2021.

EGU21-10966 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Observed exacerbation of the European water-budget deficit during multi-year droughts 

Christian Massari, Francesco Avanzi, Giulia Bruno, Simone Gabellani, and Stefania Camici

In Mediterranean climates, prolonged droughts lead to a significant shift in the precipitation -runoff relationship, usually in the direction of proportionally less precipitation allocated to runoff compared to wet periods. This shift may impact discharge predictions, as many hydrological and land surface models assume that hydrological processes are stationary even under a significant change of the climate (i.e., multi-year droughts) and are generally calibrated with more weight on discharge peaks than low flows. 

Here, we investigate whether multi-year droughts result in a change in the precipitation-runoff relationship over continental European climates (which has never been fully explored before). 30-year records of annual rainfall and runoff from a dataset (>200) of small- and medium-scale (150 to 10000 km2) European catchments were used to test the existence of statistical shifts in the precipitation–runoff relationship. This was achieved by fitting a multivariate regression across annual cumulative full-natural flow, basin-wide annual precipitation, and a categorical variable denoting multi-year drought and non-drought years.

Results demonstrate that multi-year droughts cause a shift in the precipitation–runoff relationship regardless of predominant climate , with the magnitude of this shift ranging between 20 and 80%. We explore mechanisms of these shifts and potential explanatory factors, including catchment properties and characteristics.

Understanding changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship is paramount to make models and water resource management more robust to droughts, especially in a warming and more variable climate.

How to cite: Massari, C., Avanzi, F., Bruno, G., Gabellani, S., and Camici, S.: Observed exacerbation of the European water-budget deficit during multi-year droughts , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10966, 2021.

Agricultural droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, triggering a range of pervasive effects on society, environment, and economy. In drought-prone areas, multiple interventions aimed at efficient water use and protecting water resources have been used as preventive drought management measures. However, many of these solutions are colloquial or implemented inconsistently, and the actual contribution to drought preparation and response is limited or unclear. This study evaluates the applicability and effectiveness of preventive drought management measures (Hydrological-based measures). To achieve this goal, we divided the work into two stages. First, a quantitative analysis consisted of a review, classification, and mathematical representation of potential preventive drought management measures. Second, a modelling-based analysis compared droughts characteristics before and after implementing three selected measures from the first stage (rainwater harvesting reservoirs, afforestation, and intercropping). The study was developed in the Torola basin, a drought-prone area located in Honduras northeast. We applied the threshold level method to detect and analyse drought characteristics and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modelling and representing the selected measures. We defined three scenarios for evaluating the effects of each measure. Results showed that selected measures increase infiltration and soil moisture content alleviating the severity and duration of drought events locally, but enhance the drought situation in surrounding areas.

Keywords: Agricultural droughts, preventive drought management measures, SWAT model.

How to cite: paez, A. and Corzo, G.: Evaluation of agricultural drought changes due to implementation of preventive drought management measures. Study case Torola basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9275, 2021.

EGU21-9556 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

On the curious case of the recent decade, mid-spring precipitation deficit in central Europe 

Monica Ionita-Scholz, Viorica Nagavciuc, Rohini Kumar, and Oldrich Rakovec

Central Europe has experienced a severe drought almost every April for the last 14 years consecutively, driven by record high temperatures, low flows, high evapotranspiration, and high soil moisture deficit. The dynamic of this recent and recurrent mid-spring dryness is not yet understood. Here we show that the period 2007 – 2020 was characterized by a reduction of ~50% of the usual April rainfall amount over large areas in central Europe. The precipitation deficit and the record high temperatures were triggered by a multiyear recurrent high-pressure system centered over the North Sea and northern Germany and a decline in the temperature gradient between the Arctic region and the mid-latitudes, which diverted the Atlantic storm tracks northward. From a long-term perspective, the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies observed over the last 14 years have reached the highest amplitudes over the observational record. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the hydroclimate extremes in central Europe over the last 140 years and their atmospheric drivers, enabling us to increase our dynamical understating of long-term dry periods, which is vital to enhance forecasting and mitigation of such events.

How to cite: Ionita-Scholz, M., Nagavciuc, V., Kumar, R., and Rakovec, O.: On the curious case of the recent decade, mid-spring precipitation deficit in central Europe , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9556, 2021.

EGU21-10 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Flood and center timing in a changing world

Conrad Wasko, Rory Nathan, and Murray Peel

Climate change is expected to change the pattern of rainfall resulting in changed flood magnitude. However, in large part due to interannual variability, identifying a climate change signal in flood magnitude remains difficult. As an alternative to investigating trends in flood magnitude, it has been suggested that trends in flood timing, that is, the day of annual streamflow maxima, may be a detectable trend due climate change.

Here, using high-quality data from around the world, trends in flood and center timing are investigated. We begin by standardizing the data on a local definition of water year. We find an interesting property, that after standardization, the flood and centre timing of streamflow can be approximated by a normal distribution. Moreover, we find that without the standardization on local water year the calculated trend can reverse. We proceed by analyzing trends in centre and flood timing globally using linear regression.

Results are commensurable with large-scale climatic change. But, unlike changes in extreme rainfall, trends are not spatially consistent. Flood timing is shifting to earlier in the year in the tropics, and later in the year in the extra-tropics, consistent with changes in mean rainfall and flood magnitude. There is evidence of a reversal of trends post-drought, suggesting that the mechanisms controlling flooding at a catchment scale are changing as a result of climate change. It is concluded that trends in flood timing are related to flood generating mechanisms, and largely modulated by changing antecedent moisture conditions.

How to cite: Wasko, C., Nathan, R., and Peel, M.: Flood and center timing in a changing world, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10, 2021.

EGU21-3003 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

How to a priori select ordinary distributions in flood frequency analysis when applying the Metastatistical Extreme Value approach

Sumra Mushtaq, Arianna Miniussi, Ralf Merz, and Stefano Basso

Standard flood frequency analyses hinge on unrealistic asymptotic assumptions, use a small portion of the data available (annual maxima or a few values above a high threshold only), and are ill-suited for short time series. Lately, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) has gained momentum in the study of extremes, as it relaxes the assumptions on which traditional methods are based and makes a more effective use of the information at hand. Moreover, it is more flexible in the choice of the distribution of the ordinary events (i.e., events belonging to the bulk of the distribution, in contrast to annual maxima), hence giving room for selecting the statistical method that better describes the data.

In this work, we leverage the flexibility of the MEVD and develop an approach to a priori select the distribution of ordinary peaks according to the ratio between their empirical 99th and 90th percentiles, and apply it to daily mean streamflow time series from 183 gauges in Germany. Based on the value of this ratio, we choose either the Generalized Gamma or the Log-Normal distributions to describe ordinary peaks that show lighter or heavier tails respectively. This distinction allows us to improve the estimation of the magnitude of floods with high return periods in 117 basins of a 64 % on average and to reduce under-/over-estimation issues, when compared to a MEVD application in which the ordinary distribution is chosen regardless the tail features of the underlying data.

How to cite: Mushtaq, S., Miniussi, A., Merz, R., and Basso, S.: How to a priori select ordinary distributions in flood frequency analysis when applying the Metastatistical Extreme Value approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3003, 2021.

EGU21-404 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Analysing the Return Period and Risk under the Influence of Physical Covariates on Hydrological Extreme

Jew Das, Nanduri Umamahesh, and Srinidhi Jha

For sustainable water resources planning and management, it is necessary to redefine the concept of return period, risk, and reliability of hydrologic extreme under non-stationary condition. Thus, the present study aims to examine the return period, risk introducing physical based covariates in the location parameter of the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. The study is performed over the Godavari River basin, India. The expected waiting time (EWT) approach is used to make comparison of return period, risk between stationary and non-stationary approaches. From the analysis, it is found that 50% of the gauging stations are impacted by large scale modes/oscillations and regional hydrological variability, primarily by Indian Summer Monsoon Index (ISMI) and precipitation. The EWT interpretation estimates that the non-stationary return period, risk, and reliability are significantly different from stationary condition. Hence, it is concluded that return period analysis and risk assessment using non-stationary approach can be beneficial to water managers and policy makers in order to devise sustainable and resilient water resources infrastructure under climate change scenario.

Keywords: Extreme value analysis; Return period; Risk; Non-stationarity; Uncertainty

How to cite: Das, J., Umamahesh, N., and Jha, S.: Analysing the Return Period and Risk under the Influence of Physical Covariates on Hydrological Extreme, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-404, 2021.

EGU21-4905 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Flood estimation for ungauged catchments in the Philippines using multiple archival data records

Trevor Hoey, Pamela Tolentino, Esmael Guardian, Richard Williams, Richard Boothroyd, Carlos Primo David, and Enrico Paringit

Assessment of flood and drought risks, and changes to these risks under climate change, is a critical issue worldwide. Statistical methods are commonly used in data-rich regions to estimate the magnitudes of river floods of specified return period at ungauged sites. However, data availability can be a major constraint on reliable estimation of flood and drought magnitudes, particularly in the Global South. Statistical flood and drought magnitude estimation methods rely on the availability of sufficiently long data records from sites that are representative of the hydrological region of interest. In the Philippines, although over 1000 locations have been identified where flow records have been collected at some time, very few records exist of over 20 years duration and only a limited number of sites are currently being gauged. We collated data from three archival sources: (1) Division of Irrigation, Surface Water Supply (SWS) (1908-22; 257 sites in total); (2) Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (1955-91; 90 sites); and, (3) Bureau of Research and Standards (BRS) (1957-2018; 181 sites). From these data sets, 176 contained sufficiently long and high quality records to be analysed. Series of annual maximum floods were fit using L-moments with Weibull, Log-Pearson Type III and Generalised Logistic Distributions, the best-fit of these being used to estimate 2-, 10- and 100-year flood events, Q2, Q10 and Q100. Predictive equations were developed using catchment area, several measures of annual and extreme precipitation, catchment geometry and land-use. Analysis took place nationally, and also for groups of hydrologically similar regions, based on similar flood growth curve shapes, across the Philippines. Overall, the best fit equations use a combination of two predictor variables, catchment area and the median annual maximum daily rainfall. The national equations have R2 of 0.55-0.65, being higher for shorter return periods, and regional groupings R2 are 0.60-0.77 for Q10. These coefficients of determination, R2, are lower than in some comprehensive studies worldwide reflecting in part the short individual flow records. Standard errors of residuals for the equations are between 0.19 and 0.51 (log10 units), which lead to significant uncertainty in flood estimation for water resource and flood risk management purposes. Improving the predictions requires further analysis of hydrograph shape across the different climate types, defined by seasonal rainfall distributions, in the Philippines and between catchments of different size. The results here represent the most comprehensive study to date of flood magnitudes in the Philippines and are being incorporated into guidance for river managers alongside new assessments of river channel change across the country. The analysis illustrates the potential, and the limitations, for combining information from multiple data sources and short individual records to generate reliable estimates of flow extremes.

How to cite: Hoey, T., Tolentino, P., Guardian, E., Williams, R., Boothroyd, R., David, C. P., and Paringit, E.: Flood estimation for ungauged catchments in the Philippines using multiple archival data records, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4905, 2021.

Estimation of extreme design floods with a short series of a few decades remains challenging because the statistical extrapolation of observed floods to extreme floods induces great uncertainties. Several alternative methods take advantage of the use of additional information: regional methods (e.g. the index flood method), Monte Carlo rainfall-runoff simulation methods, or specific statistical methods adapted to historical series. Here we present a flood frequency analysis on the upper Rhine River, using long historical series in Basel (1808-2017) and Maxau (1815-2018). We used a Bayesian framework to fit the parameters of the GEV distribution. Each value of the annual maximum discharge has uncertainties, which vary from ± 5-7% for the last decades to ± 22-42% for the oldest period depending on the station. At the local scale, without prior assumption on the three parameters of a GEV distribution, we found that the credibility intervals of the Basel and Maxau flood distributions are consistent. However, beyond a 1000-year return period, flood quantiles are incoherent with Q(Maxau) < Q(Basel) although Maxau (50 000 km2) is located downstream of Basel (36 000 km2). The floods at Basel are almost Gumbel distributed (shape parameter k = 0.066), whereas the floods at Maxau are Weibull distributed (shape parameter k = 0.219) with an asymptotic maximum value. Assuming that the shape parameter k has a certain regional consistency, we have performed a second iteration, with a prior interval [-0.1; +0.4] on k. The width of this interval corresponds to the union of the posterior distribution of k parameter of each local distribution: [-0.1; +0.2] at Basel and [0.0; +0.4] at Maxau. The second version of each distribution is almost the same up to a return period of 100 years, but there is no more crossing for extreme values. Using the predictive distribution with a regional prior on the shape parameter of the GEV distribution, the result is hydrologically consistent from upstream to downstream.

How to cite: Lang, M., Renard, B., and Le Coz, J.: Hydrological consistency between the upstream and downstream estimates of Q1000 flood on the upper Rhine River, using historical series in Basel (1808-2017) and Maxau (1815-2018), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8697, 2021.

EGU21-4911 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Flood frequency from maximum daily vs. instantaneous peak flows

Anne Fangmann and Uwe Haberlandt

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) has long been the standard procedure for obtaining design floods for all kinds of purposes. Ideally, the data at the basis of the statistical operations have a high temporal resolution, in order to facilitate a full account of the observed flood peaks and hence a precise model fitting and flood quantile estimation.

Unfortunately, high-resolution flows are rarely disposable. Often, average daily flows pose the only available/sufficiently long base for flood frequency analysis. This averaging naturally causes a significant smoothing of the flood wave, such that the “instantaneous” peak can no longer be observed. As a possible consequence, design floods derived from these data may be severely underrated.

How strongly the original peaks are flattened and how this influences the design flood estimation depends on a variety of factors and varies from gauge to gauge. In this study we are looking at a range of errors arising from the use of daily instead of instantaneous flow data. These include differences in the observed individual flood peaks and mean annual maximum floods, as well as the estimated distribution parameters and flood quantiles. The aim is to identify catchment specific factors that influence the magnitude of these errors, and ultimately to provide a means for error assessment on the mere basis of local hydrological conditions, specifically where no high-resolution data is available.

The analyses are carried out on an all-German dataset of discharge gauges, for which high-resolution data is available for at least 30 years. The classical FFA approach of fitting distributions to annual maximum series is utilized for error assessment. For identification of influencing factors, both the discharge series themselves and a catalogue of climatic and physiographic catchment descriptors are screened.

How to cite: Fangmann, A. and Haberlandt, U.: Flood frequency from maximum daily vs. instantaneous peak flows, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4911, 2021.

EGU21-9424 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Assessment of techniques to include historical information in flood frequency distributions for hydrological dam safety assessment

Enrique Soriano Martín, Antonio Jiménez, and Luis Mediero

Flood peak quantiles for return periods up to 10 000 years are required for dam design and safety assessment, though flood series usually have a record length of around 20-40 years that leads to a high uncertainty. The utility of historical data of flooding is generally recognised for estimating the magnitude of extreme events with return periods in excess of 100 years. Therefore, historical information can be incorporated in flood frequency analyses to reduce uncertainties in high return period flood quantile estimates that are used in hydrological dam safety analyses.

This study assesses a set of existing techniques to incorporate historical information of flooding in extreme frequency analyses, focusing on their reliability and uncertainty reduction for high return periods that are used for dam safety analysis. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess both the reliability and uncertainty in high return period quantile estimates. Varying lengths in the historical (Nh = 100 and 200 years) and systematic (Ns = 20, 40 and 60 years) periods are considered. In addition, a varying number of known flood magnitudes that exceed a given perception threshold in the historical period are also considered (k = 1-2). The values of Nh, Ns and k used in the study are the most usual in practice.

The reliability and uncertainty reduction in flood quantile estimates for each technique depend on the statistical properties of flood series. Therefore, a set of feasible combinations of L-coefficient of variation (L-CV) and skewness (L-CS) values should be considered. The analysis aims to understand how each technique behaves in terms of flood quantile reliability and uncertainty reduction depending on the L-moment statistics of flood series. In this study, L-CV and L-CS regional values in the 29 homogeneous regions identified in Spain for developing the national map of flood quantiles by the Centre for Hydrographic Studies of CEDEX are considered.

The results show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and weighted moments (WM) techniques show the best results in the regions with small L-CS values. However, the biased partial probability weighted moments (BPPWM) technique shows the best results in the regions with high L-CS values. While the expected moments algorithm (EMA) tends to underestimate flood quantiles for high return periods, the unbiased partial probability weighted moments (UPPWM) technique tends to overestimate them. In addition, including historical information of flooding in flood frequency analyses improves flood quantile estimates in most cases regardless the technique that is used. Uncertainty reduction in high return period flood quantile estimates are higher for short systematic time series, regions with high L-CS values and long historical periods.

Acknowledgments: This research has been supported by the project SAFERDAMS (PID2019-107027RB-I00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.

How to cite: Soriano Martín, E., Jiménez, A., and Mediero, L.: Assessment of techniques to include historical information in flood frequency distributions for hydrological dam safety assessment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9424, 2021.

EGU21-8147 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Floods over mainland Australia based on Drought Indices

Wei Wang, Yunzhong Shen, Fengwei Wang, and Weiwei Li

Climate change has led to increased droughts and floods over mainland Australia, resulting in water scarcity, excessive surplus and socioeconomic losses. Therefore, it is of great significance to comprehensively evaluate droughts and floods from the meteorological and hydrological perspective. Firstly, we determine the Standard Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) by correlation analysis to represent the meteorological conditions. To characterize the hydrological conditions, we calculate the hydrological drought indices including Standard Runoff Index (SRI), Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), and Total Storage Deficit Index (TSDI), using the runoff and soil moisture data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the Terrestrial Water Storage Change (TWSC) data from Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) respectively. Results show that the most severe hydrological drought over mainland Australia during the study period occurred from May 2006 to Jan. 2009 with the drought severity of -58.28 (cm months) and the most severe flood from Jun. 2010 to Jan. 2013 is with the severity of 151.36 (cm months). The comprehensive analysis of both meteorological and hydrological drought indices shows that both meteorological and hydrological drought indices can effectively detect the droughts and floods over mainland Australia. Moreover, the meteorological drought and flood are of higher frequency, while hydrological drought and flood have a relatively longer duration. Based on the cross-correlation analysis, we find that the SPEI can firstly reflect the droughts or floods over mainland Australia, and then the SRI, SMDI and TSDI reflect with the time lags of one, three and six months respectively. Furthermore, we calculate the frequency of drought and flood at the basin scale and find that SPEI and SMDI are equally sensitive to drought and flood, while TSDI is more sensitive to flood than drought. This study reveals the relationship between meteorological and hydrological conditions in mainland Australia in the last two decades and highlights its intensifying extreme climate conditions under the circumstances of the increasing temperature and complex changing precipitation.

How to cite: Wang, W., Shen, Y., Wang, F., and Li, W.: Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Floods over mainland Australia based on Drought Indices, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8147, 2021.

EGU21-9718 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Impact of Climate Change on Combined Flood and Drought events in India

Salvadi Chetan Kumar, Vivek Gupta, and Manoj Kumar Jain

The drought and floods are a natural phenomenon of ecosystems. Many studies found that the frequency and intensity of individual events of floods and drought are increasing in recent decades due to climate change. However, it is still unclear whether the frequency of combined flood-drought events is increasing in the same year or not under the climate change scenario. To identify drought and flood characteristics, we used the Standardized Weighted Average of Precipitation (SWAP), and copula bivariate distribution concept to estimate the joint probabilities of combined flood-drought events of the same year. We utilized gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department at 0.25 degree for the present study. We estimated drought, flood and combined flood-drought events for the base period (1901-1930) and the current period (1991-2018). The analysis demonstrates that about 51.97% of the total grid points show an increasing monthly SWAP values trend in the summer monsoon season. However, in winter, only 15.55% of the total grid points show an increase in the trend of monthly SWAP values. The univariate flood and drought analysis revealed that 83.98%, 83.98% and 81.90% of total grids show a significant percentage change of drought at 5, 10 and 25-year return periods, respectively when the current period is compared with the base period. Still, only, 27.88%, 16.32% and 13.82% of the total grids show a significant change in the flood 5-year, 10-year and 25-year return periods, respectively. We also found that combined flood-drought events' frequency increases in 39.21%, 36.49% and 20.71% of total grid points corresponding to 5, 10 and 25-year return period values, respectively. This study concluded that less intensity drought, flood, and combined flood-drought events are increasing in more grid points. The study outcomes will help the decision-makers to make efficient decision to overcome the impacts of the hydroclimatic extremes.

How to cite: Chetan Kumar, S., Gupta, V., and Jain, M. K.: Impact of Climate Change on Combined Flood and Drought events in India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9718, 2021.

EGU21-55 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

The influence of global climate and local hydrological features over streamflow extremes.  Case of study in a tropical Andean basin

Alex Avilés, Juan Contreras, Daniel Mendoza, and Jheimy Pacheco

Hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts are the most common and threatening natural disasters worldwide. Particularly, tropical Andean headwaters systems are prone to hazards due to their complex climate conditions. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms triggering such extremes events. In this study, the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) were used for investigating the relations between the Annual- Peak-Flows (APF) and Annual-Low-Flows (ALF), respecting to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Thirty years of daily streamflow data-sets taken from two Andean catchments of southern Ecuador are used for the experimental research. Global climate indices (CI), describing the large-scale climate variability were used as hypothetical drivers explaining the extreme’s variations on streamflow measures. Additionally, the Antecedent-Cumulative-Precipitation (AP) and the Standardized-Precipitation-Index (SPI), and LULC percentages were also included as possible direct drivers – synthetizing local climate conditions and localized hydrological changes. The results indicate that AP and SPI clearly explain the extreme streamflow variability. Nonetheless, global variables play a significant role underneath the local climate. For instance, ENSO and CAR exert influence over the APF, while ENSO, TSA, PDO and AMO control ALF. Furthermore, it was found that LULC changes strongly influence both extremes; although this is particularly important for relative more disturbed catchments. These results provide valuable insights for future forecasting of floods and droughts based on precipitation and climate indices, and for the development of mitigation strategies for mountain catchments.

How to cite: Avilés, A., Contreras, J., Mendoza, D., and Pacheco, J.: The influence of global climate and local hydrological features over streamflow extremes.  Case of study in a tropical Andean basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-55, 2021.

EGU21-7992 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Modelling hydrological droughts and floods in the Volta Basin, West Africa 

Solomon Hailu Gebrechorkos, Ming Pan, Peirong Lin, David Pritchard, Nathan Forsythe, Hayley Fowler, and Justin Sheffield

Hydrological extreme events such as droughts and floods have a wide range of impacts on society and sectors such as agriculture and energy production. The impact of these extremes are projected to increase with future climate change and there is an urgent need to develop adaptation measures to reduce and manage the impacts. Long-term analysis of hydrological extremes, using a combination of models and climate data, helps better plan and manage water resources under global change. In this study, we modelled and analyzed hydrological extremes of the Volta river basin at very high-resolution (>10000 river reaches) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, the vector-based river network routing model (RAPID), and high-resolution meteorological forcing datasets. The output from the VIC model is evaluated at multiple time scales (daily to annual) and for extreme events (droughts and floods) using observed streamflow data during the period 1979-2013.  The model performed very well in areas less affected by dams, with performance increasing from daily to annual time scale. The modelled streamflow data is used to assess changes and variability in droughts (duration days and severity) and floods (annual daily maximum). The results show a decreasing and increasing trend in moderate and severe droughts in northern-eastern and southern parts of the basin, respectively. An increasing trend in floods is observed in the upper part of the basin (Black and White Volta) and the main river of the Lower Volta and we found a strong correlation with changes in precipitation and soil moisture.

How to cite: Gebrechorkos, S. H., Pan, M., Lin, P., Pritchard, D., Forsythe, N., Fowler, H., and Sheffield, J.: Modelling hydrological droughts and floods in the Volta Basin, West Africa , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7992, 2021.

EGU21-13252 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Calibrating and validating an inundation model with and without crowdsourced water depths and velocities

Thaine H. Assumpção, Ioana Popescu, Andreja Jonoski, and Dimitri Solomatine

Remote sensing and crowdsourcing data are new sensing methods that have the potential to improve significantly inundation modelling. That is especially true in data-scarce situations, for example when resources for acquiring sufficient traditional data are limited or when field conditions are not favourable. Crowdsourced water depths and velocities have been demonstrated to be useful for improving inundation models, ranging from the calibration of 1D models to data assimilation in 2D models. In this study, we aim to further evaluate how much the amount and type of crowdsourced data influence model calibration and validation, in comparison with data from traditional measurements. Further, we aim to assess the effects of combining both sources. For that, we developed a 2D inundation model of the Sontea-Fortuna area, a part of the Danube Delta in Romania. This is a wetland area, where data was collected during two 4-day field campaigns, using boat navigation together with the involved citizens. Citizens obtained thousands of images and videos that were converted into water depth and velocity data, while technicians collected ADCP data. We calibrated and validated the model using different combinations of data (e.g. all water depth data, half water depth and half water velocity). Results indicated that velocity data by themselves did not yield good calibration results, being better used in conjunction with water depths or by combining them into discharge. We also observed that calibration by crowdsourced water depths is comparable to the use of water depths from traditional measurements.

How to cite: Assumpção, T. H., Popescu, I., Jonoski, A., and Solomatine, D.: Calibrating and validating an inundation model with and without crowdsourced water depths and velocities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13252, 2021.

EGU21-13317 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Design flood estimation at locations with no data or short records in a Bayesian framework

Kolbjorn Engeland, Trond Reitan, Seija Maria Stenius, and Per Glad

Estimating design floods at location with no measurements or short records is a major challenge for operational hydrology. The aims of this study are to (i) develop a regional flood frequency model that consists of a regression model for the index flood and the parameters in the growth curve; (ii) assess and attribute the uncertainty to the components of the regional flood frequency model, (iii) develop flexible approaches for combining a regional flood frequency model with local data and provide recommendations for how to combine local and regional data. Annual maximum flood data from 529 gauging stations were used for the model development. We re-parametrized the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution into an index flood component and growth curve component, and we used the median flood as the index flood. The model was estimated using a MCMC algorithm within a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach was also used to combine local and regional data. Two approaches were used (i) combining local and regional data to estimate the index flood (ii) combining local and regional data to estimate both the index flood and the growth curve. Simulation experiments were carried out to assess the performance of these approaches. We see that in particular for data records shorter than 10 years, we can benefit from combining the local and the regional model by both approaches. We also constructed a prior for use in local analysis that complied with the distribution of the regional model for three key quantiles.  For the index flood, the regression model was successfully estimated and evaluated using a three-step cross validation approach. The most important variables for predicting the index flood were mean annual runoff, river length and lake percentage. The attribution of uncertainty showed that most of the uncertainty was found in the index flood component.

 

How to cite: Engeland, K., Reitan, T., Stenius, S. M., and Glad, P.: Design flood estimation at locations with no data or short records in a Bayesian framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13317, 2021.

EGU21-10303 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Comparison of stationary and non-stationary frequency models for assessing design discharges in variable climate: north-west England case study

Sina Hesarkazzazi, Rezgar Arabzadeh, Mohsen Hajibabaei, Wolfgang Rauch, Thomas R. Kjeldsen, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Attilio Castellarin, and Robert Sitzenfrei

Successive occurrence of floods across north-west England over the course of the past few years has resulted in the need for the local authorities and decision makers to (re-) assess several flood management schemes. However, ongoing decision-making on how flood control measures are constructed, is frequently still made on the basis of the assumption that the flood characteristics of catchments have remained constant over time (i.e., stationarity). To verify the validity of this assumptions, non-parametric tests alongside change-permitting flood frequency frameworks based on Generalized Logistic distribution model (as the recommended model in the UK catchments) have been applied to a dataset of extreme peak river flow measurements across the region (39 catchments with up to 75 years of records). Allowing the location parameter of the model to change linearly with time, cumulative annual rainfall and cumulative annual temperature as covariates, one stationary as well as six non-stationary models have been introduced. The regional non-stationary frequency results indicate a notable improvement over the stationary predictions, estimating design flood quantiles (i.e., 100-year events) up to 75% larger than classic stationary estimates. Moreover, the vast majority of rivers demonstrate statistically significant changes (mainly driven by cumulative annual rainfall), specifically in the late 1990s. This indicates that non-stationary models should be taken into consideration, along with the traditional stationary ones to help understanding the changes in the peak river flow regimes across the north-west England.

How to cite: Hesarkazzazi, S., Arabzadeh, R., Hajibabaei, M., Rauch, W., R. Kjeldsen, T., Prosdocimi, I., Castellarin, A., and Sitzenfrei, R.: Comparison of stationary and non-stationary frequency models for assessing design discharges in variable climate: north-west England case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10303, 2021.

EGU21-2563 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

The analysis of streamflow variability and flood wave characteristics on the two lowland rivers in Croatia

Martina Kovačević, Kristina Potočki, and Gordon Gilja

Climate changes affect streamflow variability on the long-term and short-term temporal scale. Consequently, analysis of changes in hydrological regime, but also in intensity and frequency of short-time flood events, enables better understanding of hydraulic and geomorphological processes in rivers. Changes in streamflow variability and flood wave characteristics may lead to intensifying riverbed erosion and lowering infrastructure safety, such as bridges over rivers. The aim of the study is to analyse hydrological regime for historical data from the selected gauging stations on the two large lowland rivers in Croatia: the Sava River and the Drava River. Analysis of the magnitude, frequency, variability, and timing of streamflow is conducted. Additionally, deterministic and probabilistic approach to determination of metrics that describe hydrograph shape is performed for the different threshold levels. Results obtained from this study will help in exploring riverbed erosion processes which may entail the increased scouring around bridge piers and consecutively impair the infrastructure reliability in the changing climate.

Acknowledgments

This work has been supported in part by Croatian Science Foundation under the project R3PEAT (UIP-2019-04-4046) and DOK-2020-01.

How to cite: Kovačević, M., Potočki, K., and Gilja, G.: The analysis of streamflow variability and flood wave characteristics on the two lowland rivers in Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2563, 2021.

EGU21-10635 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Detection, attribution and frequency analysis of non-stationary flood peaks in 32 big rivers worldwide  

Yanlai Zhou, Chong-Yu Xu, Cosmo Ngongondo, and Lu Li

Due to climate variability and reservoir regulation worldwide, it is fundamentally challenging to implement holistic assessments of detection, attribution and frequency analysis on non-stationary flood peaks. In this study, we proposed an integrated approach that combines the prewhitening Mann-Kendall test technique, Partial Mutual Information-Partial Weights (PMI-PW) method and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) method to achieve reliable non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Firstly, the prewhitening Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect the trend change of flood peaks. Secondly, the PMI-PW was employed to attribute the contribution of climate change and reservoir regulation to non-stationarity of flood peaks. Lastly, the GAMLSS method was employed to quantify the change in flood risks under the non-stationary condition. The applicability of the proposed approach was investigated by long-term (1931-2017) flood series collected from 32 big river catchments globally. The results suggested that global flood trends varied from increasing +19.3%/decade to decreasing −31.6%/decade. Taking the stationary flood frequency analysis as the benchmark, the comparative results revealed that the flood risk in 5 rivers under the non-stationary condition in response to warming climate significantly increased over the historical period whereas the flood risk in 7 rivers in response to increasing reservoir storage largely reduced. Despite the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of observations, the changes in flood peaks evaluated here were explicitly associated with the changing climate and reservoir storage, supporting the demand for considering the non-stationarity of flood peaks in the best interest of social sustainability.

Keywords: Flood peaks; Large catchments; Non-stationarity; Frequency analysis

*This work was supported by the Research Council of Norway (FRINATEK Project 274310).

 

 

 

How to cite: Zhou, Y., Xu, C.-Y., Ngongondo, C., and Li, L.: Detection, attribution and frequency analysis of non-stationary flood peaks in 32 big rivers worldwide  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10635, 2021.

EGU21-16238 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

How to embrace big data and uncertainties within reasonable time constraints? A detailed flood study in Flanders

Gert Leyssen, Els van Uytven, Joris Blanckaert, Roeland Adams, Tim Franken, Jiri Nossent, and Fernando Pereira

Progressing towards a sustainable society implies the availability of reliable boundary conditions for various hydrodynamic flood models, including an extensive consideration of uncertainties. With an ever growing availability of data and models, the uncertainty sources are constantly increasing. Hence, an elaborate uncertainty analysis strategy has become a must. One way to deal with part of this uncertainty is by applying an ensemble approach, using different hydrological models in combination with various climate scenarios. However, impact modellers may find the growing number and the increasing length of input series for hydraulic models more challenging, since computing time, reliability of the analysis and project deadlines can cause a conflicting situation. In this context, there is a need for approaches that offer a compromise between computing the vast amount of long input series and adequately addressing the uncertainties within a reasonable time span. We present an approach which reduces the computation time, but simultaneously recognises the importance of robust results and the consideration of the different sources of uncertainty. By a stratification of the probability domain for extreme events (discharges, water levels,…) a set of hydrodynamic boundary conditions is generated. Each of these synthetic events gets a probability of occurrence, which changes according to either the considered confidence level or the considered ensemble member. In addition to the stratification approach, a tool for selecting synthetic events for design is developed. This tool allows end-users to create a subset of synthetic events which can be used as design events for a specific area and are representative for the full set of events. The approach is demonstrated for the River Dender catchment in Flanders using 40 years of hydro-meteorological data, an ensemble of 3 hydrological models and a detailed hydraulic model.

How to cite: Leyssen, G., van Uytven, E., Blanckaert, J., Adams, R., Franken, T., Nossent, J., and Pereira, F.: How to embrace big data and uncertainties within reasonable time constraints? A detailed flood study in Flanders, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16238, 2021.

EGU21-2908 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

On the influence of extreme rainfall and antecedent soil moisture on flood hazards in Africa

Yves Tramblay, Gabriele Villarini, El Mahdi El Khalki, Gabi Gründemann, and Denis Hughes

The African continent is severely impacted by floods, with an increasing vulnerability to these events in the most recent decades. Our improved preparation against and response to this hazard would benefit from an enhanced understanding of the physical processes at play. A database recently compiled on Africa allows to conduct studies at the continental scale: the African Database of Hydrometric Indices (ADHI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-281). Daily river discharge data have been extracted for 399 African rivers to analyze the seasonality of observed annual maximum discharge. In addition, extreme precipitation from CHIRPS and ERA5, and soil moisture from ERA5-Land between 1981 and 2018 have been also considered as potential flood drivers. The database includes a total of 11,302 flood events, covering most African regions. The analysis is based on directional statistics to compare the annual maximum river discharge with annual maximum rainfall and soil moisture. Results show that the annual peak flow in most areas is more strongly associated with the annual peak of soil moisture than of extreme precipitation. In addition, the interannual variability of flood magnitudes is better explained by the variability of annual maximum soil moisture or the precipitation summed over 5 days prior to an event, than by changes in the annual maximum daily precipitation. These results have important implications for the design of efficient flood forecasting systems or the investigation of the long-term evolution of these hydrological hazards.

How to cite: Tramblay, Y., Villarini, G., El Khalki, E. M., Gründemann, G., and Hughes, D.: On the influence of extreme rainfall and antecedent soil moisture on flood hazards in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2908, 2021.

EGU21-64 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Flood Seasonality in the Congo River Basin 

Bola Bosongo Gode, Neal Jeff, Tshimanga Raphael, Hawker Lauwrence, Trigg Mark A, Lukanda Mwamba Vincent, and Paul Bates Paul

Information on flood seasonality is required in many practical applications of hydrology and water resources management. However, an understanding of flood seasonality and how flood frequencies may have changed over time has not been established for the Congo Basin. The main objective of this study is therefore to identify flood seasonality and change in frequency the Congo Basin (CB). The analysis based on six major drainage areas of the CB, where we used a Peaks Over Threshold (POT) flood time-series with three peaks per year. The relative frequency method is applied to identify flood seasons, and then a cluster analysis is performed to classify flood into type based on monthly frequency. The directional statistics method is used to determine the mean day of flood and the flood variability measure. To identify flood frequency changes, the analysis of variance was applied to test the difference between two flood frequency time series blocks before and after the change point year. Results show that four gauging stations exhibit a unimodal flood seasonality distribution while two gauging stations have bimodal flood seasonality distribution, and two significant flood rich months are observed in all studied gauging stations.  The cluster analysis results in four spatially flood types with distinct seasonality characteristics. Mean flood dates show that the time interval between adjacent flood events in the south and south-east is shorter compared to time interval between flood events in the north and north-west. It is observed that, in almost all gauging stations, there is strong flood seasonality, and the geographical location of a watershed is indicative of its flood pattern. Most of significant decreasing frequencies are found in the southern part of the Congo Basin. There are no significant changes in flood frequency identified in the northern and eastern part of the Basin. However, flood frequencies have been increasing in the centre and western part of the Basin. This study suggest that, exploring flood generating factors and the drivers of change can provide insights for understanding the influence of these factors on floods as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity in the future.  

 

 

How to cite: Gode, B. B., Jeff, N., Raphael, T., Lauwrence, H., Mark A, T., Vincent, L. M., and Paul, P. B.: Flood Seasonality in the Congo River Basin , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-64, 2021.

EGU21-2156 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Consistent large-scale response of hourly extreme precipitation to temperature variability

Haider Ali, Hayley Fowler, and Geert Lenderink

Hourly precipitation extremes can intensify with higher temperatures at higher rates than theoretically expected from thermodynamic increases explained by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship (~6.5%/K), but local scaling with surface air temperature is highly variable. Here, we use daily dewpoint temperature, a direct proxy of absolute humidity, as the scaling variable instead of surface air temperature. Using a global dataset of over 7000 hourly precipitation gauges, we estimate the at-gauge local scaling across six macro-regions; this ranges from CC to 2xCC for more than 60% of gauges. We find positive scaling in subtropical and tropical regions in contrast to previous work. Moreover, regional scaling rates show surprisingly universal behaviour at around CC, with higher scaling rates in Europe. Our results show a much greater consistency of scaling across the globe than previous work, usually at or above the CC rate, suggesting the relevance of dewpoint temperature scaling to understand future changes.   

How to cite: Ali, H., Fowler, H., and Lenderink, G.: Consistent large-scale response of hourly extreme precipitation to temperature variability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2156, 2021.

EGU21-2861 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Uncertainty in Probable Maximum Precipitation for Dam Safety 

Emilie Tarouilly and Dennis Lettenmaier

California’s large network of dams is under increasing scrutiny as hydrologic extremes are becoming more frequent and dams are aging. Typically, dam spillways are sized for the most severe flood that is likely in a given watershed, called the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). PMF is obtained from the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), which is the greatest 72-hour depth of precipitation that is “meteorologically probable”. Historically, PMP has been estimated by scaling depth-area-duration relationships obtained from severe historical storms. The scaling factor was estimated as the ratio of moisture available during that storm to the climatological maximum for the region. This PMP estimation approach, after which the spillways of most existing dams in California have been sized, has long been criticized as being somewhat arbitrary, although in practice it has led to relatively conservative spillway designs. Advances in both atmospheric models now facilitate a more rational basis for specifying PMP. Over the last decade, model-based PMP estimation frameworks have been developed whereby a severe historical storm is reconstructed and “maximized” using a regional atmospheric model. The most common approach to date, called relative humidity maximization (RHM) consists of setting relative humidity to 100% at the model boundaries, which has the effect of generating more precipitation (“maximum”) than occurred in the actual storm. This addresses major limitations of earlier PMP techniques through (1) more realistic representation of storm physics, (2) applicability of the method to future climate, and (3) suitability for forcing hydrologic models for improved PMF estimation.

The work I present here addresses concerns regarding the sources of uncertainty in the RHM approach, such as choice of storm to reconstruct and maximize, and choice of model physics parametrizations that directly affect model-based PMP estimates. To do so I produce an ensemble of PMP estimates (rather than a single value) that samples the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty. I focus on three California study basins, all of which have large reservoirs and different topographic and hydroclimatic conditions: the Feather, Russian and Santa Ana River basins. Using the WRF model forced with ERA5 reanalysis, I first create an ensemble of 40 reconstructions based on 10 combinations of physics parametrizations for 4 severe historical storms (Dec. 1964, Feb. 1986, Jan. 1997, and Feb. 2019). Next, I modify the 40 reconstructions by maximizing the model boundary moisture fluxes. This results in an ensemble of 4 storm events, 10 physics combinations, and 2 PMP methods, yielding 80 PMP estimates from which to better assess uncertainty in PMP. Differences among the PMP estimates I obtain based on different storm events, model physics and PMP methods confirm the value of such an ensemble in providing a measure of uncertainty in PMP estimates . Focusing on large dams in California, this work is intended to improve confidence in and utility of PMP estimates, which form the cornerstone of dam safety, and ultimately enable safer and more effective reservoir management as the climate continues to change.

How to cite: Tarouilly, E. and Lettenmaier, D.: Uncertainty in Probable Maximum Precipitation for Dam Safety , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2861, 2021.

EGU21-3351 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Comparing and Advancing Approaches to Long-Term Flood Projection

Katherine Schlef, Baptiste François, and Casey Brown

How should design flood magnitudes be estimated under climate change? Apart from assuming stationarity, the two main approaches are hydrologic simulation and informed-parameter, which is generally based on either trend or climate covariates. Here, we compare these approaches across a large set of hydro-climatologically diverse basins located throughout the contiguous United States, splitting the historic record into a calibration and validation time period. We evaluate performance when the approaches are forced with observed climate as well as simulated climate from general circulation models. We also investigate how the strengths of the climate informed and hydrologic simulation approaches can be combined to improve projections; here, we use the outputs of hydrologic simulation as covariates in the climate informed approach. The results provide a quantitative perspective on key long-term flood projection issues and provide a route forward to improving projections given the identified strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

How to cite: Schlef, K., François, B., and Brown, C.: Comparing and Advancing Approaches to Long-Term Flood Projection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3351, 2021.

EGU21-9671 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Simulating spatially coherent widespread flood events for risk modelling in the UK

Adam Griffin, Lisa Stewart, Alison Kay, Vicky Bell, Paul Sayers, and Sam Carr

Within risk modelling, event ‘footprints’ are used to demonstrate how an extreme event impacts different locations at a similar time. Currently, estimates of future impacts from extreme events are derived by applying climate change allowances to at-site flood frequency estimates based on observations from the current period. These modified flow frequency estimates are then used to calculate flood risk and associated losses using a variety of means.

The present work brings together these two strands to develop spatially resolved projections of changes in river flow and, together with new analyses of the spatial coherence, to generate a wider collection of plausible events to improve risk modelling of the rarest events. This wide collection of extreme flood events provides the foundational input for an event-based assessment of risk.

The research extends proven methods to generate extreme, widespread flood events directly based on outputs from a 1km grid-based hydrological model driven by UKCP18 datasets. These modelled events provide coherent and highly credible descriptions of changes in flow based on spatially coherent climate change information. In addition to the small number of widespread extreme events generated directly from the gridded hydrological model, copula-based methods have been extended and applied on a regional and even national scale at a 1km resolution over the GB river network. These extensions to the Heffernan-Tawn model and Empirical Copula models are being used to generate a collection of plausible extreme based on the climate of 1980-2010 and on climate projections for 2050-2080. The collection of events is then used to compare the characteristics and variability of widespread events across different climate ensemble members and compare between present and future estimates.

How to cite: Griffin, A., Stewart, L., Kay, A., Bell, V., Sayers, P., and Carr, S.: Simulating spatially coherent widespread flood events for risk modelling in the UK, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9671, 2021.

EGU21-11484 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Using convection-permitting climate models and a high-resolution distributed hydrological model to assess future changes in Alpine flash floods.

Marjanne Zander, Pety Viguurs, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, and Albrecht Weerts

Flash Floods are damaging natural hazards which often occur in the European Alps. Precipitation patterns and intensity may change in a future climate affecting their occurrence and magnitude. For impact studies, flash floods can be difficult to simulate due the complex orography and limited extent & duration of the heavy rainfall events which trigger them. The new generation convection-permitting regional climate models improve the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation (Ban et al., 2021).

Therefore, this study combines such simulations with high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling to assess changes in flash flood frequency and occurrence over the Alpine terrain. We use the state-of-the-art Unified Model (Berthou et al., 2018) to drive a high-resolution distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model (e.g. Imhoff et al., 2020) covering most of the Alpine mountain range on an hourly resolution. Simulations of the future climate RCP 8.5 for the end-of-century (2096-2105) and current climate (1998-2007) are compared.

First, the wflow_sbm model was validated by comparing ERA5 driven simulation with streamflow observations (across Rhone, Rhine, Po, Adige and Danube). Second, the wflow_sbm simulation driven by UM simulation of the current climate was compared to a dataset of historical flood occurrences (Paprotny et al., 2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data) to validate if the model can accurately simulate the location of the flash floods and to determine a suitable threshold for flash flooding. Finally, the future run was used to asses changes in flash flood frequency and occurrence. Results show an increase in flash flood frequency for the Upper Rhine and Adige catchments. For the Rhone the increase was less pronounced. The locations where the flash floods occur did not change much.

This research is embedded in the EU H2020 project EUCP (EUropean Climate Prediction system) (https://www.eucp-project.eu/), which aims to support climate adaptation and mitigation decisions for the coming decades by developing a regional climate prediction and projection system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe.

 

N. Ban, E. Brisson, C. Caillaud, E. Coppola, E. Pichelli, S. Sobolowski, …, M.J. Zander (2021): “The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at the kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation”, manuscript accepted for publication in Climate Dynamics.

S. Berthou, E.J. Kendon, S. C. Chan, N. Ban, D. Leutwyler, C. Schär, and G. Fosser, 2018, “Pan-european climate at convection-permitting scale: a model intercomparison study.” Climate Dynamics, pages 1–25, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4114-6

Imhoff, R.O., W. van Verseveld, B. van Osnabrugge, A.H. Weerts, 2020. “Scaling point-scale pedotransfer functions parameter estimates for seamless large-domain high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling: An example for the Rhine river.” Water Resources Research, 56. Doi: 10.1029/2019WR026807

Paprotny, D., Morales Napoles, O., & Jonkman, S. N., 2018. "HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870". Earth System Science Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018

How to cite: Zander, M., Viguurs, P., Sperna Weiland, F., and Weerts, A.: Using convection-permitting climate models and a high-resolution distributed hydrological model to assess future changes in Alpine flash floods., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11484, 2021.

The rapid increase in heavy precipitation flooding events highlights the need for efficient flood forecasting techniques to facilitate flood hydrological research and effective flood management by civic bodies. The current study aims to develop a near-real-time flood forecasting framework by integrating a 3-way coupled hydrodynamic flood model framework with numerical weather modelling based rainfall forecasts. The proposed framework has been demonstrated over Mumbai city in India, which is subjected to flooding every year during the monsoon months. A fine-resolution atmospheric simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been performed for rainfall forecasts, which serve as an input to the flood model. To access the impact of urbanization on rainfall extremes, three scenarios are considered in the WRF simulations, i.e., WRF model: (1) without Urban canopy model (WRF-NoUCM), (2) coupled with a single-layer Urban canopy model (WRF-SUCM), and (3) coupled with a multi-layer Urban canopy model (WRF-MUCM). Further, a three-way coupled flood model has been developed where the MIKE 11 model (streamflow) with the drainage network (stormwater drains) and the MIKE 21 model (overland flow) have been considered for flood inundation and subsequently hazard mapping. In addition, the tidal elevation is provided along the coastline in the model setup. The flood maps developed by three WRF forecasted rainfall scenarios have been compared with that of the maps developed with observed rainfall. The extent to which the scenarios have been able to imitate the pattern and extent of flooding generated by observed rainfall has been investigated to decide the best scenario to be adapted in the comprehensive flood forecasting network. This state-of-art flood forecasting approach may be implemented in other flood-prone coastal regions as a major non-structural flood management strategy to reduce flood risk and vulnerabilities for the people dwelling in those regions.

How to cite: Ghosh, M., Paul, S., Karmakar, S., and Ghosh, S.: Near-real-time flood forecasting for an urban coastal catchment: An approach in combination of numerical weather and 3-way coupled hydrodynamic flood modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12834, 2021.

This study used the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system to understand the role of near surface temperature in the prediction skill for US climate extremes. In this study, the forecasting skill was measured by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) between the observed and forecasted precipitation (PREC) or 2-meter air temperature (T2m) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during 1982–2012. The strength of the PREC-T2m coupling was measured by ACC between observed PREC and T2m or forecasted PREC and T2m over the CONUS. This study also assessed the NMME forecasting skill for the summers of 2004 (spatial anomaly correlation between PREC and T2m: 0.05), 2011 (-0.65), and 2012 (-0.60) when the PREC-T2m coupling is weaker or stronger than the 1982–2012 climatology (ACC:-0.34). This study found that most of the NMME models show stronger (negative) PREC-T2m coupling than the observed coupling, indicating that they fail to reproduce interannual variability of the observed PREC-T2m coupling. Some NMME models with skillful prediction for T2m show the skillful prediction of the precipitation anomalies and US droughts in 2011 and 2012 via strong PREC-T2m coupling despite the fact that the forecasting skill is year-dependent and model-dependent. Lastly, we explored how the forecasting skill for SSTs over north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans affects the forecasting skill for T2m and PREC over the US. The findings of this study suggest a need for the selective use of the current NMME seasonal forecasts for US droughts and pluvials.

How to cite: Kam, J., Kim, S., and Roundy, J.: NMME-based Assessment of Prediction Skills of US Summertime Droughts and Pluvials: Role of Near-surface Temperature Prediction Skill, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1957, 2021.

EGU21-1544 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event

Wilson Chan, Theodore Shepherd, Katie Smith, Geoff Darch, and Nigel Arnell

Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts threaten water resources availability and incur significant environmental and socio-economic consequences. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify “storylines” of how a singular event with significant impacts could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways from plausible changes to its causal factors under present and future climate. This study uses the 2010-2012 UK drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought, as a basis, to create counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence and 3) climate change. Model simulations are performed using the GR4J hydrological model and drought characteristics for each counterfactual storyline is calculated using the Standardized Streamflow Index at multiple accumulation periods.

The storylines show that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010-2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought characteristics and the influence of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology, in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “three dry winter” scenario. Application of the UKCP18 projections at four global warming levels explore the impacts of the drought in a warmer world. Drought conditions of the storylines could have matched and exceeded that experienced in past severe droughts, especially for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

How to cite: Chan, W., Shepherd, T., Smith, K., Darch, G., and Arnell, N.: Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1544, 2021.

EGU21-15248 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Drought dynamics and variability over Bundelkhand region of central India: Past, Present and Future

Md Saquib Saharwardi, Aditya Kumar Dubey, Pankaj Kumar, and Dmitry V. Sein

In the present study, an evaluation of the past, present, and future variability of droughts in the Bundelkhand region of Central India are analyzed. Bundelkhand is a severe drought-prone region with intense water stress, where in the last five years four were drought. Therefore, understanding the drivers of drought over the region and its future projection is quite crucial for regional water management. The assessment has been made by analyzing the observational dataset from 1951-2018 to understand the regional drought dynamics. The future projection is made using a multi-model ensemble from a regional climate model over the CORDEX South-Asia domain under the highest emission scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) indices are used to understand present drought and its future projection. In addition to this, drought driving parameters like precipitation, temperature, sea-surface temperature wind circulation has been assessed to understand the regional drought dynamics. The composite analysis of drought indicates that the moisture-laden low-level jet from the Arabian Sea branch generally weakened compared to Bay of Bengal branch for monsoon season. Teleconnections of drought over Bundelkhand region shows that nearly half of the droughts are linked to El-Nino events that have become stronger in recent past. The model result reveals that regional climate variability is reasonably captured over the region. In addition, we found increasing drought frequency since the beginning of the 21st century. The detailed results from the analysis will be shown briefly in the general assembly.

Acknowledgement: This work is jointly supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India, grant number DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G and the Russian Science Foundation (Project No.: 19-47-02015). The first author is also thankful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India for providing DST INSPIRE fellowship (Grant No. IF160281).

How to cite: Saharwardi, M. S., Dubey, A. K., Kumar, P., and Sein, D. V.: Drought dynamics and variability over Bundelkhand region of central India: Past, Present and Future, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15248, 2021.

EGU21-6533 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria

Klaus Haslinger, Gregor Laaha, Wolfgang Schöner, Andre Konrad, Marc Olefs, Roland Koch, and Jakob Abermann

In this contribution future changes of surface water availability over the Austrian domain is investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and potential evapotranspiration) are used as indicators for surface water availability and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these quantities we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating changes in return periods of drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show in general wetter conditions over the course of the 21st century over Austria. Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring will be getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation along with a higher rainfall/snowfall fraction as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the ensemble median of the climatic water balance are visible, hence uncertainties are large due to a considerable ensemble spread. However, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, a robust signal of increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent. It emerges from an increase in interannual variability of the climatic water balance, which likely stems from intensified land-atmosphere coupling under climate change sustaining and intensifying spring preconditions towards even wetter or dryer summers.

How to cite: Haslinger, K., Laaha, G., Schöner, W., Konrad, A., Olefs, M., Koch, R., and Abermann, J.: Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6533, 2021.

EGU21-6780 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Decomposing the uncertainties in global drought projection

Yusuke Satoh, Hideo Shiogama, Naota Hanasaki, Yadu Pokhrel, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Simon Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Hannes Schmied, Wim Thiery, and Tokuta Yokohata

Droughts are anticipated to intensify or become more frequent in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought definition, makes it difficult to compare drought projections and hampers overviewing future changes in drought. This issue is widely known and underscored in recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but the relative importance of the issue and its spatial distribution have never been quantitatively evaluated compared to other sources of uncertainty.

Here, using a multi-scenario and multi-model dataset with combinations of three climate change scenarios, four global climate models and seven global water models, we evaluated changes in the frequency of three categories of drought (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) by a consistent standardized approach with four different temporal scales of accumulation periods to show how differences among the drought definitions could result in critical uncertainties. For simplicity, this study focuses on one drought index per drought category. Firstly we investigated the disagreement in the sign of changes between definitions, and then we decomposed the overall uncertainty to estimate the relative importance of each source of uncertainty. By a multifactorial ANOVA, uncertainty was decomposed into four main factors, namely drought definitions, climate change scenarios, global climate models and global water impact models, and their interactions.

Our results highlight specific regions where the sign of change disagrees between drought definitions. Importantly, changes in drought frequency in such regions tended to be statistically insignificant with low ensemble member agreement. Drought definition attributed to18% of the main factor uncertainty at the global scale, and the definition was the dominant uncertainty source over 11% of the global land area. The contribution of difference in the drought category showed a higher contribution to overall uncertainty than the difference in scales. The contribution of scenario uncertainty was the least among the main factors in general, though it is a dominant factor in the far-future in a couple of hotspot regions such as the Mediterranean region. Overall, model uncertainties were the primary source of uncertainty, and the definition issue was less important over large areas. However, definition uncertainty was the primal uncertainty source with significant changes in particular regions, such as parts of high-latitude areas in the northern hemisphere. One needs to pay attention to these regions in overviewing future drought change. Nonetheless, what this study quantified is the relative importance of uncertainty stemming from drought definition that should be avoidable or reducible if one treats drought specifically. Our results indicate that we can reduce uncertainty in drought projections to some extent and get a clearer picture by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest.

How to cite: Satoh, Y., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Pokhrel, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gosling, S., Grillakis, M., Koutroulis, A., Schmied, H., Thiery, W., and Yokohata, T.: Decomposing the uncertainties in global drought projection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6780, 2021.

EGU21-1889 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation

Anna Ukkola, Martin De Kauwe, Michael Roderick, Gab Abramowitz, and Andy Pitman

Understanding how climate change affects droughts guides adaptation planning in agriculture, water security, and ecosystem management. Earlier climate projections have highlighted high uncertainty in future drought projections, hindering effective planning. We use the latest CMIP6 projections and find more robust projections of meteorological drought compared to mean precipitation. We find coherent projected changes in seasonal drought duration and frequency (robust over >45% of the global land area), despite a lack of agreement across models in projected changes in mean precipitation (24% of the land area). Future drought changes are larger and more consistent in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. We find regionalised increases and decreases in drought duration and frequency that are driven by changes in both precipitation mean and variability. Conversely, drought intensity increases over most regions but is not simulated well historically by the climate models. These more robust projections of meteorological drought in CMIP6 provide clearer direction for water resource planning and the identification of agricultural and natural ecosystems at risk.

How to cite: Ukkola, A., De Kauwe, M., Roderick, M., Abramowitz, G., and Pitman, A.: Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1889, 2021.

EGU21-8713 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

Understanding changes in meteorological drought in regional UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

Nele Reyniers, Nans Addor, Geoff Darch, Yi He, Qianyu Zha, and Timothy Osborn

Extreme droughts can cause enormous ecological and economic damage, and are expected to become more severe in some regions due to climate change. For water managers, it is crucial to understand extreme droughts and how they are projected to change compared to previous droughts, in order to plan for resilience to these events. 

Changes in water resources do not only result from changes in precipitation and periods of below normal precipitation (meteorological droughts), they are also shaped by changes in atmospheric moisture demand, characterized here by potential evaporation. Therefore we use two standardized indicators, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) to isolate the impact of projected changes in precipitation and potential evaporation. We consider the contribution of precipitation deficits and potential evaporation changes to projected changes in future drought duration, severity and frequency. We explore droughts and their development across different time scales, as their diversity – from flash droughts to creeping multi-year droughts – adds to the challenge.

We make use of the recently released 12-member 12-km horizontal resolution perturbed parameter ensemble of spatially coherent regional UKCP18 climate projections (with and without bias adjustment). This ensemble of projections was produced by the UK Met Office by dynamically downscaling a perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 simulations with a regional variant. The skill of the UKCP18 regional ensemble members for drought simulation is evaluated by comparison with observed drought metrics for the baseline period. 
Projected changes in UK climate according to the UKCP18 projections include wetter winters, drier summers and generally stronger temperature increases in summer than in winter. We assess how these changes contribute to changes in drought characteristics using SPI and SPEI for each member of the ensemble. 

While this work focusses on meteorological droughts, it will be followed by a future analysis of their propagation to hydrological droughts. This project aims to support adaptation to droughts in the region of East Anglia and is conducted in collaboration with the water company Anglian Water. 

How to cite: Reyniers, N., Addor, N., Darch, G., He, Y., Zha, Q., and Osborn, T.: Understanding changes in meteorological drought in regional UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8713, 2021.

EGU21-3261 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.4

The Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on (drivers of) Multi-Year Droughts in North-Western Europe

Thomas J. Batelaan, Karin van der Wiel, and Niko Wanders

The summer of 2018 in North-Western Europe was exceptionally warm and dry, which negatively impacted many sectors. The drought of 2018 was followed by the dry summer of 2019 and the dry spring of 2020. Such multi-year droughts bring unique challenges to the agricultural sector, water authorities and society, and require different adaptation strategies compared to ‘normal’ single-year droughts. The succession of these dry years raises a question: is it pure coincidence that North-Western Europe experienced such a multi-year drought, or are there physical processes that cause multi-year droughts? Furthermore, in the present era it is obvious to ask whether anthropogenic climate change will amplify multi-year droughts in the region.

We aim to find drivers of multi-year droughts by using ERA5 reanalysis data and  state-of-the-art Large Ensemble simulations from seven climate models. We select multi-year droughts in these datasets based on the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index and compare drought characteristics in the 1991-2020 reference period with multi-year droughts towards the end of the century. The models show a strong increase in multi-year drought risk from present-day to the end of the century. The frequency of multi-year droughts near doubles and the median duration of selected drought events increases from 16 months to 50 months. Model differences are substantial, mostly due to differences in temperature trends, but all models agree on the increase in multi-year drought risk. Internal variability is large, indicating a large ensemble approach is indeed required to study this problem.

Next we discuss geophysical drivers of multi-year droughts. Slow-varying ocean processes (through sea surface temperatures) and land processes (through soil moisture) are investigated as potential sources of meteorological conditions that lead to multi-year droughts. We consider the full Earth system, including ocean-land-atmosphere feedbacks, as potential forcing for these events. Summarizing, we will show that anthropogenic warming has potentially large impacts on the frequency, duration and therewith societal risk of multi-year droughts, warranting detailed studies of this topic.

How to cite: Batelaan, T. J., van der Wiel, K., and Wanders, N.: The Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on (drivers of) Multi-Year Droughts in North-Western Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3261, 2021.

HS2.4.5 – Space-time dynamics of floods: processes, controls, and risk

EGU21-11192 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

The unit peak discharge as a tool for flood magnitude comparison and analysis

Josep Carles Balasch, Jordi Tuset, Mariano Barriendos, Xavier Castelltort, and David Pino

To analyze the river floods dynamics, it is common to fix the observations of the flow at a characteristic checkpoint of the basin, showing its evolution over time:  the hydrograph. A less common way of studying this hydrological phenomenon is the analysis of the unit peak discharge of the flood (i.e., the peak flow divided by the contributory area of the basin) along different checkpoints of the drainage axis.

If this second methodology is chosen for the analysis of the river flooding, the circulation of flows through the river network generally shows that as the contributory area of the basin increases the unit peak discharge decreases. This is due to the reduction in the amount of precipitation and the slope of the riverbed with the increase of the basin area as it moves away from the headwaters. However, this simple scheme can have very different behavior depending on factors such as the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the presence of snow, the soil moisture, the geological substrate, land uses, or human activities.

This study compares the hydrological data of several historical and recent floods in NE basins of the Iberian Peninsula from the perspective of observing the unit peak flows depending on the size of the drained basin (i.e., the spatial evolution of the specific maximum discharge). These basins are small in size (usually below 500 km2) and drain regions such as the central Pyrenees (Garonne, Noguera Pallaresa), the Ebro Depression (rivers Ribera Salada, Sió, Ondara, Corb) and the Catalan Coastal System (Francolí), that is, they belong to very diverse geographical environments.

The results allow to compare the magnitude of the unit peak flows in the headwaters and the decreasing of this variable when moving downstream. The unit peak discharges of the tributaries of the Ebro Depression, near the Catalan Coastal System are much higher when comparing with the flow of the Pyrenean rivers. For many floods of the Ebro basin of medium magnitude, the unit peak flow is reduced by the runoff infiltration in the flood plains favored by agricultural activities. In the Pyrenean rivers the spatial decrease of the unit peak discharge is gentle than in those of the Ebro Depression. The results show different patterns of flow generation and propagation that have implications for managing the dangerousness of flood risk, especially in very small basins (< 10 km2), where peak flows can be unexpectedly large and devastating.

How to cite: Balasch, J. C., Tuset, J., Barriendos, M., Castelltort, X., and Pino, D.: The unit peak discharge as a tool for flood magnitude comparison and analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11192, 2021.

EGU21-13376 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Identification of meteo-hydrological extreme events at the regional scale: the Northwestern Italy case study

Matteo Pesce, Alberto Viglione, Alessandro Borre, Simone Gabellani, Jost von Hardenberg, and Daniele Ganora

Extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly applied in hydrology to study extreme events. The univariate approach has been widely used in literature on this topic, but this limits the analysis to single sites. A more recent approach considers multivariate techniques applied to larger datasets, to detect the spatial structure of these events. However, how to properly define events and which variables should be considered for their identification and characterization in a regional domain is still a matter of debate. Moreover, recent studies have pointed out the increasing need of establishing connections between the different processes entering the hydrological cycle at larger spatial scales, especially in the context of global climate change. This work presents a non-parametric method for extracting the largest hydrological events occurring over the Northwestern Italy in the last decades and correlates them to spatially averaged extreme climate indices (ETCCDI). In particular, the extraction of extreme hydrological events started from the calculation of the empirical non-exceedance probability of the daily runoff values, at each station of the stream gauge network, and of a corresponding empirical return time. Then, a daily regional return time was determined by averaging the return time values over all stations for each day, with a sliding time window and site-related weights. Finally, the local maxima of the regional return time were extracted by intersecting the signal with a filter of the return time itself and the largest annual event was considered for each year. The spatial dependence of these events was analysed by extracting the local maximum discharge values at each station, corresponding to the occurrence of the maximum regional return times. A correlation with regional values of the ETCCDI indices was also performed to get some insights on the meteorological extremes playing a role in the formation of floods. Results show a rank of the extracted events for the study area and some considerations on their relative impact in terms of damage are provided. This gives an indication of the long-term variability of extreme events at the regional scale.

How to cite: Pesce, M., Viglione, A., Borre, A., Gabellani, S., von Hardenberg, J., and Ganora, D.: Identification of meteo-hydrological extreme events at the regional scale: the Northwestern Italy case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13376, 2021.

EGU21-14910 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Recent spatio-temporal dynamics of floods of record across Europe

Fabio Arletti, Simone Persiano, Miriam Bertola, Juraj Parajka, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin

Economic losses and social consequences caused by floods have been steadily increasing over the last decades over Europe. In such a situation, the detection of changes in flood behaviour is crucial and the scientific community itself calls for a common effort to better understand recent flood dynamics and their evolution in space and time.

In this context, our study considers an extensive dataset of annual maximum series of peak flow discharges for more than 3400 catchments across Europe for the period 1820-2016 (average record length of 53 years). Based on this extensive dataset, our study analyses the behaviour of the specific flood of record (i.e. the largest flood observed in the time interval of interest divided by the drainage area of the corresponding catchment, hereafter also referred to as SFOR) in space and time across the European continent. In particular, we consider the spatial variability of SFOR computed for the entire observation period and for two 30-years sub-samples, namely 1987-2016 and 1957-1986. We focus on three macro-regions over northwestern, southern and eastern Europe, which have been identified by previous studies as homogeneous in terms of flood regime changes and processes driving flood changes. For the selected different timespans and macro-regions, we analyse the spatial variability of the year in which SFOR was observed, and the number of times in which a new record was observed at each and every gauge, also evaluating their relationship with catchment area. By referring to the theory of record-breaking processes, we also evaluate the non-stationarity in flood sequences by accounting for the presence of spatial correlation among flood sequences.

Finally, we provide a continuous spatial representation of SFOR values across Europe by referring to the dataset of elementary catchments identified by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. For each elementary catchment of the JRC dataset, we interpolate empirical SFOR values by means of the geostatistical procedure termed top-kriging, which accounts for nesting between catchments.

The outcomes of our study provide useful information on the spatio-temporal evolution of flooding potential across Europe, enabling a visualization of the current flooding potential across Europe and of significant changes and shifts of the flood of record occurred during the last five decades.

How to cite: Arletti, F., Persiano, S., Bertola, M., Parajka, J., Blöschl, G., and Castellarin, A.: Recent spatio-temporal dynamics of floods of record across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14910, 2021.

EGU21-15044 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Challenges for Application of the Derived Distribution Approach to Flood Frequency

Ross Woods, Yanchen Zheng, Roberto Quaglia, Giulia Giani, Dawei Han, and Miguel Rico-Ramirez

Flood estimation in ungauged basins is important for flood design, and for improving our understanding of the sensitivity of flood magnitude to changes in climate and land cover. Flood estimates by current methods (e.g. statistical regression, unit hydrograph) have high uncertainty, even in places with dense observing networks (e.g. +/- 50-100% in the UK). Reductions in this uncertainty are being sought by using alternative methods, such as continuous simulation using hydrological models (spatially-distributed or lumped), and event-scale derived distribution approaches. The very significant challenges for reliable application of continuous simulation models in ungauged catchments are well described in the literature.

The event-scale derived distribution approach also has challenges, which we explore below. The derived distribution approach at the event scale typically combines the following elements: a stochastic rainfall model, an event-scale rainfall-runoff model (including “losses” and a “baseflow” component), and a runoff routing model. In principle, every element of this approach may be considered as a (seasonally varying) random variable. The flood peak distribution is obtained by integrating over joint distributions of the model elements.

First challenge: what is the physical basis for estimating the event runoff coefficient? In the 1970s, this was addressed using infiltration theory, but other runoff generation mechanisms are often more important. How do we connect our knowledge of seasonal water balance and runoff generation processes to the probability distribution of event runoff coefficients, and its seasonal variation? We suggest (i) begin with locations which are dominated by a small number of runoff generation mechanisms (ii) make use of existing theory on links between climate, catchment characteristics and seasonal water balance (iii) adapt relevant simple concepts of runoff generation which link seasonal water balance to runoff generation.

Second challenge: how do we parsimoniously quantify the impacts of within-storm temporal rainfall patterns on the flood hydrograph? Existing approaches use stochastic rainfall models to explicitly generate (hourly) time series of rainfall; since catchments damp out high frequency forcing, we suggest that these rainfall series often contain excessive temporal detail and obscure the most informative interactions between rainfall and catchment response. We propose that we use stochastic models that can generate hydrologically relevant attributes of rainfall events (e.g. intensity/depth/duration, spatial and temporal moments), and then apply rainfall-runoff transformations which operate on rainfall moments, and do not require excess detail in temporal (or spatial) patterns of rainfall.

Third challenge: What is an event? This is no problem for theoretical models, but it is hard as a data analysis question, and we need data analysis to implement and evaluate the derived distribution method. The event identification methods of engineering hydrology are subjective, require manual intervention and are poorly suited for large sample hydrology! We suggest the answer lies in the catchment’s response time.

The underlying conceptual framework to link seasonal climate and hydrology to floods is already available (Sivapalan et al, 2005). What these challenges require is that we integrate and apply more of our existing hydrological concepts and knowledge to implement the process-based theory of flood frequency. 

How to cite: Woods, R., Zheng, Y., Quaglia, R., Giani, G., Han, D., and Rico-Ramirez, M.: Challenges for Application of the Derived Distribution Approach to Flood Frequency, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15044, 2021.

EGU21-1971 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Spatial representation of stochastically generated rainfall for derived flood frequency analysis

Luisa-Bianca Thiele, Ross Pidoto, and Uwe Haberlandt

For derived flood frequency analyses, stochastic rainfall models can be linked with rainfall-runoff models to improve the accuracy of design flood estimations when the length of observed rainfall and runoff data is not sufficient. The stochastic rainfall time series, which are used as input for the rainfall-runoff model, can be generated with different spatial resolution: (a) Point rainfall, which is stochastically generated rainfall at a single site. (b) Areal rainfall, which is catchment rainfall averaged over multiple sites before using the single-site stochastic rainfall model. (c) Multiple point rainfall, which is stochastically generated at multiple sites with spatial correlation before averaging to catchment rainfall. To find the most applicable spatial representation of stochastically generated rainfall for derived flood frequency analysis, simulated and observed runoff time series will be compared based on runoff statistics. The simulated runoff time series are generated utilizing the rainfall-runoff model HBV-IWW with an hourly time step. The rainfall-runoff model is driven with point, areal and multiple point stochastic rainfall time series generated by an Alternating Renewal rainfall model (ARM). In order to take into account the influence of catchment size on the results, catchments of different sizes within Germany are considered in this study.  While point rainfall may be applicable for small catchments, it is expected that above a certain catchment size a more detailed spatial representation of stochastically generated rainfall is necessary. Here, it would be advantageous if the results based on areal rainfall are comparable to those of the multiple point rainfall. The stochastically generation of areal rainfall is less complex compared to the stochastically generation of multiple point rainfall and extremes at the catchment scale may also be better represented by areal rainfall.    

How to cite: Thiele, L.-B., Pidoto, R., and Haberlandt, U.: Spatial representation of stochastically generated rainfall for derived flood frequency analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1971, 2021.

Since the bias and uncertainties of the current design flood estimation methods for ungauged catchments are inevitable, estimation of the design flood in ungauged catchments still remains an unsolved problem. The derived distribution approach appears to be the one of the promising design flood estimation methods, as this method can improve the understanding on which processes contribute most to flood in ungauged catchments. Generally, the distribution of rainfall characteristics and lumped rainfall-runoff modelling was incorporated to estimate the flood magnitude in this method. However, we should note that rainfall is not the only driving factor of flood events. Soil moisture conditions are also an important driving factor affecting the rainfall-runoff transformation, and may even control rainfall-runoff coefficients to a higher degree than does rainfall. Hence, here we perform soil moisture analysis at national scale by employing GLDAS-Noah datasets, and link this to observed event runoff coefficients from a large sample of UK catchments. The relationship between soil moisture conditions and rainfall-runoff coefficient was explored to analyse the spatio-temporal variability of runoff coefficient. This study laid the foundation for further development of a practical derived distribution method, by considering the statistical distribution of rainfall-runoff coefficients and the influence of soil moisture conditions.

How to cite: Zheng, Y., Woods, R., Li, J., and Feng, P.: The influence of soil moisture conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of event rainfall-runoff coefficients in UK catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6047, 2021.

EGU21-9577 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Effects of channel engineering on flood dynamics along the middle and lower Rhône over the last two centuries.

Mathieu Lucas, Michel Lang, Jérôme Le Coz, Benjamin Renard, and Hervé Piegay

The Rhône River has undergone many anthropogenic transformations to improve his navigability and produce hydroelectricity since the mid-19th century. From the longitudinal dikes of the 1850’s to the hydroelectric diversion schemes of the 1950’s and 1960’s, these structures had a direct impact on the channel geometry along the 300km of river course between Lyon (France) and the Mediterranean Sea. An indirect consequence could be a change in the flood dynamics along the channel course, caused by the simplification of the channel patterns and the floodplain accretion. This communication aims to assess the potential changes in the flood propagation along the middle and lower Rhône valley throughout a century of anthropogenic reconfigurations of the channel. The possible impact of these human pressures on the inundation risk and the attenuation of the flood peak discharge is also discussed. Through the use of digitized hydrometric data recorded since 1840 on multiple stream gauges of the Rhône river, a variety of floods of the same type and magnitude are selected. The oceanic flood types (as described by Pardé, 1925) that take their origin from heavy rainfalls upstream of the area of interest are preferred. Thus, complex flood waves due to floods from the lower Rhône valley tributaries are avoided, to keep the analysis as simple as possible. The flood travel time and the peak discharge attenuation of the selected events are compared over the years of channel transformations, permitting us to estimate the impact of anthropogenic pressures on the flood dynamics.

How to cite: Lucas, M., Lang, M., Le Coz, J., Renard, B., and Piegay, H.: Effects of channel engineering on flood dynamics along the middle and lower Rhône over the last two centuries., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9577, 2021.

EGU21-16325 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

A fully coupled spatially distributed hydrologic-hydrodynamic model for the Barotse Floodplain, Upper Zambezi

Innocent C. Chomba, Kawawa Banda, Hessel Winsemius, Eunice Makungu, Dennis Hughes, Dirk Eilander, Markus Hrachowitz, Imasiku Nyambe, Henry Sichingabula, Mulema Mataa, Machaya Chomba, Bruce Ellender, and Victoria Ngwenaya

Floodplains play important roles in global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, and many socioeconomic activities also depend on water resources in floodplains. Although considered as critical for the formation and preservation of floodplains, hydrology in floodplains has been hard to characterise. In recent years the demand for an understanding of the hydrological and hydrodynamic processes for the Barotse floodplains is ever increasing especially with the advent of climate change/variability, and expected upstream developments. Yet, the multi-way interactions between river flows, wetland inundation, and groundwater are complex, and poorly understood, compromising studying these changes. Most hydrological and hydrodynamic models applied for large-scale hydrological and inundation modelling lack an advanced floodplain-groundwater feedback mechanism, and thus may over predict or under predict inundation extent, depth, and downstream river flow. This is because groundwater re-infiltration and evaporation from the floodplains over a longer time scale than the flood process are not accounted for.  Hence, the main objective of this current study is to show the very first attempt to a fully coupled model for the Barotse floodplain. The hypothesis is that a fully coupled model will result in larger groundwater dynamics, a slower rise of inundation, and possibly a longer recession tail. To test this hypothesis, we setup two experiments; (i) in the first experiment, WFLOW runs and feeds upstream flows into LISFLOOD. This is sort of the classic approach, and similar to earlier studies, and also does not necessarily require a time-step based coupling; (ii) in the second experiment, WFLOW runs and feeds into Lisflood_FP, and Lisflood_FP then returns water into the WFLOW model. This an experiment where we re-infiltrate water into wflow and by doing so, let groundwater levels adapt so that additional reinfiltrated water, decrease the amount of flood water, increase groundwater levels more during the wet season, and provide a higher recession tail downstream. Our model environment and experiments are available through https://github.com/Innochomba/barotse.

How to cite: Chomba, I. C., Banda, K., Winsemius, H., Makungu, E., Hughes, D., Eilander, D., Hrachowitz, M., Nyambe, I., Sichingabula, H., Mataa, M., Chomba, M., Ellender, B., and Ngwenaya, V.: A fully coupled spatially distributed hydrologic-hydrodynamic model for the Barotse Floodplain, Upper Zambezi, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16325, 2021.

EGU21-13034 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Process-based flood risk assessment for Germany

Nivedita Sairam, Fabio Brill, Tobias Sieg, Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Viet Dung Nguyen, Bruno Merz, Stefan Lüdtke, Mostafa Farrag, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Heidi Kreibich

Floods affect people worldwide and account for more than USD 100 billion losses on average every year. Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability are the three components that influence flood risk. Flood Risk Management (FRM) decisions especially, with respect to new flood defense schemes and resilience initiatives are generally taken based on the assessment of impacts for hazard scenarios. Current large-scale studies are comprehensive in terms of sectors covered in impact assessment. However, these studies often deploy generalized data and methods on the model components resulting in coarse risk estimates with low spatial resolution.

In this study, we use process-based models with 100m resolution on the national scale within a systems approach to develop and simulate a 5000 year flood event catalogue for Germany. The events are then analyzed per economic sector, including residential, commercial and agriculture sectors. The risk chain includes continuous simulation of high-resolution hazard maps, obtained from coupled hydrology and hydraulic models; NUTS3-level exposure asset values further disaggregated to ATKIS land-use data and calibrated object-level vulnerability models that provide high-resolution quantification of economic damage. Spatial dependence of flood events is addressed by the continuous simulation approach. For each model component in the risk assessment (hazard, exposure and vulnerability), uncertainty in data and methods are integrated into the risk predictions. Based on these simulations, we present a sector-wise flood risk assessment for Germany along with the reliability of the risk estimates. This process-based, systemic flood risk assessment is valuable for policy making, adaptation planning and estimating insurance premiums.

How to cite: Sairam, N., Brill, F., Sieg, T., Kellermann, P., Schröter, K., Nguyen, V. D., Merz, B., Lüdtke, S., Farrag, M., Vorogushyn, S., and Kreibich, H.: Process-based flood risk assessment for Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13034, 2021.

EGU21-14692 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Event indicator analysis using depth functions to explain the occurrence of large floods in Germany

Björn Guse, Faizan Anwar, Bruno Merz, Larisa Tarasova, Ralf Merz, András Bárdossy, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

Large floods occur due to particular hydrometeorological conditions and could be characterized by different event indicators. By analyzing a large set of catchments and different events, the drivers of large flood peaks remain unclear. In addition to precipitation, also the prevailing situation in the catchment such as soil moisture conditions could control the occurrence of large floods.In this study, we analyzed a set of event indicators ranging from event precipitation via antecedent catchment state to catchment response for 169 gauges in Germany. For each gauge with a length of at least 50 years of daily observations, we derived the POT5 series. In order to test whether floods are characterized with unusual values of event indicators, we used the Tukey’s depth function. In this multivariate data analysis technique, a point cloud of different event indicators is subdivided at each point with a line into two groups. The depth value is hereby the minimum value of points in these two groups. This multivariate statistical method allows to find points in the center of the set, and those on or close to the boundary. Hence, points in the cloud center have high depth and correspond to ordinary values of the event indicators. Points at the edges of the cloud have low depth and indicate unusual indicator values. In case of low depth, the related event indicators can potentially be seen as drivers of these flood events. We compared all combinations of the event indicators with 2, 3 and 4 variables and analyzed which event indicators might cause the occurrence of large flood peaks.Our results show that the depth is reduced with increasing flood magnitude. Large floods are thus more unusual in terms of event indicators compared to smaller floods. The most relevant event indicators are maximum event precipitation and event precipitation volume. At least one of these indicators is required to explain the flood peak magnitude, but in most of the cases these two indicators are not sufficient. Inclusion of antecedent catchment state or a catchment response indicator improves the explanation in several but not all cases.Overall, we conclude that flood peak magnitudes at a specific catchment in our study region are mainly driven by the individual event characteristics. In most of the cases they cannot not be explained by typical patterns of event indicators for all large events at a given gauge.

How to cite: Guse, B., Anwar, F., Merz, B., Tarasova, L., Merz, R., Bárdossy, A., and Vorogushyn, S.: Event indicator analysis using depth functions to explain the occurrence of large floods in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14692, 2021.

EGU21-10604 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Climate dominates changes in flood magnitude and timing across China during 1960-2017

Yixin Yang and Long Yang

Riverine floods are exhibiting temporal shifts in both magnitude and timing under the context of climate change as well as human alternations of the river systems (i.e., construction of reservoirs and land management practices). A nation-wide assessment of changes in riverine floods is still lacking over China, despite the societal perception that recent Chinese flood trends are dictated by drastic environmental changes associated with rapid economic development. Here we examine changes in flood magnitude and timing based on the most comprehensive database of annual maximum flood peak discharge (AMF) over China during the period 1960-2017. We find both increasing and decreasing trends in AMF magnitude and timing. Trends in AMF magnitudes range from -4.29% to 2.86% (per year relative to long-term mean flood peak discharge). Decreased AMF magnitudes are observed in central and northern China, while increased AMF magnitudes mainly in northwestern and southern China. The shifts of AMF timing range from -16 days to +18 days per decade. Changes in AMF timing show less spatial consistency than that in AMF magnitude. We categorize the gauged watersheds into human-modified and natural categories. Flood changes in natural watersheds can only be attributed to climate variability. The spatial pattern of changes in AMF magnitude and timing in human-modified watersheds resembles those in natural watersheds, pointing towards the dominant role of climate in dictating recent flood changes over China. Impacts of reservoirs and land management practices are only isolated cases. We further provide a predictive understanding of climatic controls on flood hazards over China (and East Asian countries) by establishing connections between changes in AMF magnitude/timing and climate indices. Our analyses, together with similar efforts in other continents, contribute to a general understanding of space-time dynamics of riverine floods around the globe.

How to cite: Yang, Y. and Yang, L.: Climate dominates changes in flood magnitude and timing across China during 1960-2017, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10604, 2021.

EGU21-12902 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Patterns of flood timing trend across the global river networks

Peirong Lin, Eric Wood, Ming Pan, Yuan Yang, Hylke Beck, and Zhenzhong Zeng

Impacts of climate change on floods have been recently suggested to be more consistently seen in flood timing (or flood seasonality) as opposed to flood magnitude and frequency. Changes in flood timing can threaten the finely tuned water resource management systems and, if poorly understood, can alter flood risks in unpredictable ways. Nevertheless, patterns of global flood timing trend remain elusive. Whether climate change has played a significant role in shifting flood timing worldwide also remains unknown.

Here we obtained an unprecedented set of discharge records from tens of thousands of global gauges and model-reconstructed naturalized discharge at ~3 million river reaches to delineate flood timing trend across the global river networks from 1980 to 2019. Hydroclimate drivers possibly causing these trends, including maximum precipitation, antecedent soil moisture, and snowmelt timing, are also investigated to disentangle climate change signals on floods. We found that the flood timing has been significantly earlier over the lower Mississippi, the Amur and the Amazon river basins, as well as large parts of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere. Significant later floods are observed over the Yangtze and the lower Congo river basins, and the southeast Asia. However, ascribing these flood timing shifts to changing climate is not as obvious as previously suggested, implying the need for further research on this topic.

How to cite: Lin, P., Wood, E., Pan, M., Yang, Y., Beck, H., and Zeng, Z.: Patterns of flood timing trend across the global river networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12902, 2021.

EGU21-2604 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Data-based attribution of changes in flood quantiles across Europe between 1960 and 2010

Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl

Changes in European floods during past decades have been analysed and detected by several studies. These studies typically focused on the mean flood behaviour, without distinguishing small and large floods. In this work, we investigate the causes of the detected flood trends across Europe over five decades (1960-2010), as a function of the return period. We adopt a regional non-stationary flood frequency approach to attribute observed flood changes to potential drivers, used as covariates of the parameters of the regional probability distribution of floods. The elasticities of floods with respect to the drivers and the regional contributions of the drivers to changes in flood quantiles associated with small and large return periods (i.e. 2-year and 100-year floods, respectively) are estimated by Bayesian inference, with prior information on the elasticity parameters obtained from expert knowledge and the literature. The data-based attribution approach is applied to annual maximum flood discharge seires from 2370 hydrometric stations in Europe. Extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt are the potential drivers considered. Results show that extreme precipitation mainly contributes to positive flood changes in North-western Europe. Both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation contribute to negative flood changes in Southern Europe, with relative contributions varying with the return period. Antecedent soil moisture contributes the most to changes in small floods (i.e. T=2-10 years), while the two drivers contribute with comparable magnitude to changes in more extreme events. In eastern Europe, snowmelt clearly drives negative changes in both small and large floods.

How to cite: Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Vorogushyn, S., Lun, D., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Data-based attribution of changes in flood quantiles across Europe between 1960 and 2010, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2604, 2021.

Understanding how floods are expected to change is essential for decision making and flood risk management, as flood risks are expected to increase in the future. Several studies have analysed the impact of climate change on flood risks with rainfall-runoff models and climate projections as input data. Nevertheless, most of these studies involve large-scale river basins instead of focusing on smaller river basins or points of interest like urban areas. This study quantifies the expected changes in flood quantiles at the River Arga in the city of Pamplona (Spain) within the SAFERDAMS project (PID2019-107027RB-I00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. It uses climate change projections from 12 climate models of the EURO-CORDEX programme for two Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs as input data of the RIBS distributed hydrological model (Garrote and Bras 1995 ab, JoH). The analysis considers seven return periods (2, 5, 10, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years), two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three time windows (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2070-2100).

First, the RIBS model has been calibrated with a set of objective functions to minimise the bias between simulations and observations recorded at a streamflow-gauging station located in the Arga River in Pamplona. The seven greatest flood events occurred in Pamplona in the last decade are considered. A long set of random combinations of model parameter values are used. The combination of parameter values that led to the smallest errors were selected.

Second, 24-h design rainfall storms with a time step of 1 h in the current scenario at a set of rainfall gauge stations in the Arga River catchment are obtained by using an extreme frequency analysis. Expected changes in daily rainfall quantiles in the Arga River catchment obtained by processing climate change projections are used (Garijo and Mediero 2019, Water). Current and future design rainfall storms were obtained for the seven return periods, two RCPs and three time windows. The input data in the RIBS model are provided in a raster format. Hence, design rainfall storms were transformed into spatial distributions of precipitation with the Thiessen polygons technique.

The findings show a decrease in design peak discharges for return periods smaller than 10 years and an increase for the 500- and 1000-year floods for both RCPs in the three time windows. However, 50- and 100-year return period flood quantiles are expected to increase especially in the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows only in the emission scenario RCP8.5. The emission scenario RCP8.5 always provides greater increases in flood quantiles than RCP4.5, except for the more frequent floods (2, 5 and 10 years) in the time window 2011-2040. The increases of design discharges are 10-30% higher in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 for the greatest return periods. Therefore, flood magnitude changes for the most extreme events seem to be related to the evolution of greenhouse gasses emissions, following the same behaviour of the RCPs: the greatest expected changes are in the 2040 for the RCP4.5 and in the 2100 for the RCP8.5.

How to cite: Lompi, M., Mediero, L., and Caporali, E.: Impact of climate change on floods in Pamplona (Spain) by using climate change projections and a distributed hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9753, 2021.

EGU21-9983 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.5

Effects of anthropic changes on the propagation of the Gleno dam break wave in the Valle Camonica floodplain 

Riccardo Bonomelli, Marco Pilotti, and Gabriele Farina

The catastrophic flood following the Gleno dam break, which occurred in 1923, has been investigated in the literature (Pilotti et al., 2011, Milanesi and Pilotti, 2021) considering the 20 km long steep alpine valley separating the dam location from the hamlet of Corna. In this contribution, we investigate the propagation of the flood wave from Corna, where the computed hydrograph from previous investigation provides the upstream boundary condition, as far as the Lake Iseo outlet in Sarnico, where two controversial documents attest its effect on the lakeshore. In the middle, the flood crossed 30 km of a wide pre-alpine floodplain that has been deeply modified over the last century  and crossed 25 km of a deep lake.

The simulation has been accomplished by coupling 2 different 2D solver of the Shallow Water Equations: the well-known HEC-RAS 2D software was used to cover the floodplain from Corna up to the Lake Iseo inlet, while a finite volume scheme was used to simulate the lake behaviour in response to the incoming flood. The finite volume scheme used to model the lake is based on the WAF solver developed by Toro (Toro, 2001) and further adapted to account for the geometry of lake Iseo using an unstructured mesh. The scheme used retains shock-capturing capabilities and well-balanced properties able to withstand the constantly changing bathymetry of the lake as well as the unsteadiness of the hydrodynamics modelled. As a first step, the simulation was performed on the topography derived from the LIDAR DTM surveyed in 2008-2009. A computational mesh was built with average grid size of 10 m aligned in correspondence of levees and other singularities. This first simulation dramatically shows how the propagation of the flood wave was affected by the presence of linear structures such as levees and road embankments, absent in 1923 as shown by historical maps. For this purpose, the linear structure that affect the flow was removed from the 2008-2009 DTM and a second simulation was performed in order to compare the different flow hydrograph at the inlet of the lake.

An important fallout of the modeling effort is the reconstruction of the 1923 original bathymetry of the river in Valle Camonica, to be compared with the present one, affected by 100 years of river training works. The comparison of the flood propagation using the two bathymetries highlights the consequences of systematic hydraulic works on the hazard distribution for the same event. Paradoxically, the residual risk is now much higher than 100 years ago. Moreover, the simulations show that the claim of a 50 cm high bore at the inlet of the Oglio river is unsubstantiated by the model results and that an important request of damages was probably based on a false statement.

How to cite: Bonomelli, R., Pilotti, M., and Farina, G.: Effects of anthropic changes on the propagation of the Gleno dam break wave in the Valle Camonica floodplain , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9983, 2021.

HS2.4.6 – Flash drought: definition, dynamics, detection, and prediction

EGU21-6423 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6 | Highlight

Making sense of flash drought: definitions, indicators, and where we go from here

Joel Lisonbee, Molly Woloszyn, and Marina Skumanich

The topic of “Flash Drought” has rapidly gained attention within the research and drought management communities within the last decade. In preparation for a recent workshop on Flash Drought, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) prepared a literature review to synthesize the research to-date (as of August 2020) and to provide a basis for future research on the topic. Specifically, this review is focused on documenting the range of definitions of "flash drought" that have been proposed by the research community. The term first appeared in the peer-reviewed literature in 2002, and by 2020, has become an area of active research. Within that 18-year span, 19 papers have provided measurable, defining criteria used to distinguish a flash drought from other drought. Of these papers, 11 distinguish flash drought as a rapid-onset or rapid-intensification drought event while seven distinguish flash drought as a short-term or short-lived, yet severe, drought event, and one paper considers flash drought as both a short-lived and rapid-onset event. Currently, there is no universally accepted definition or criteria for “flash drought,” despite recent research that has called for the research community to adopt the principle of rapid-intensification of drought conditions. This topic was further explored at the NIDIS-sponsored Flash Drought Workshop on 1-3 December 2020, where additional perspectives were shared about the key characteristics of flash drought that should inform its definition.  We will provide a review of the literature-derived definitions as well as a brief overview of this additional discussion.

How to cite: Lisonbee, J., Woloszyn, M., and Skumanich, M.: Making sense of flash drought: definitions, indicators, and where we go from here, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6423, 2021.

EGU21-14105 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6 | Highlight

Flash Drought Research: Growth, Challenges and Future Perspectives 

Akif Rahim and Yannis Markonis

Over the past decades, the evolution of the “flash drought” concept has offered new insights in the analysis of extreme climate. Rapid development and devastating effects on the ecosystem have made flash droughts different from the traditional drought. For example, the flash drought event of 2012 across the Great Plains in the USA caused an agricultural loss of $30 billion. In this study, we reviewed the progress and determined the growth rate of flash drought research over the past decades. Furthermore, we compiled the challenges addressed by the researchers and then presented the future perspectives to cope with these challenges. We used the Scopus database as a search engine to track articles published from 2000 to 2020. The association technique of clustering s applied to the author’s keywords and research titles to identify the hot spots of flash drought research. The results show that the literature on flash droughts has grown rapidly over the past decade. The main identified challenges are the appropriate definition and identification of flash drought, the development of an effective early warning system, the determination of the ecosystem response time to flash droughts, and the data scarcity in both spatial and temporal scales. Future research should establish a detailed framework to integrate each of the challenges and provide mitigation suggestions to the effects of flash drought.

 

How to cite: Rahim, A. and Markonis, Y.: Flash Drought Research: Growth, Challenges and Future Perspectives , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14105, 2021.

EGU21-3441 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6 | Highlight

Perceptions of Flash Drought in the U.S.: How do End-Users and Researchers Compare?

Tonya Haigh, Joel Lisonbee, Marina Skumanich, and Molly Woloszyn

Defining flash drought is important not only for the development of the science but also for ensuring clear and useful early warning information to end users. In preparation for a December 2020 U.S-based workshop on flash drought, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) undertook a survey of NIDIS contacts to explore how flash drought is understood within and outside of the research community. End users represented in the survey include researchers (outside of flash drought specialty), policy-makers, decision-makers, communicators, and educators and public engagement specialists, largely working within universities or federal agencies across the U.S. Flash drought researchers were asked to describe how they intend for the term “flash drought” to be interpreted when they use it. End users (whether they had heard/used the term before or not) were asked to describe what they think of when they hear the term “flash drought”. Their answers emerged into themes, including: onset/intensification, duration, drivers, impacts, seasonality, predictability, intensity, spatial scale, and uncertainty about its meaning. In this presentation, we will elaborate upon these themes, and discuss similarities and differences in how flash drought researchers and end users conceptualize flash drought.

How to cite: Haigh, T., Lisonbee, J., Skumanich, M., and Woloszyn, M.: Perceptions of Flash Drought in the U.S.: How do End-Users and Researchers Compare?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3441, 2021.

EGU21-1418 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6 | Highlight

Development of a flash drought intensity index

Jason Otkin, Yafang Zhong, Eric Hunt, Jordan Christian, Jeff Basara, Hanh Nguyen, Matthew Wheeler, Trent Ford, Andrew Hoell, Mark Svoboda, and Martha Anderson

Flash droughts are characterized by a period of unusually rapid drought intensification over sub-seasonal time scales that often take vulnerable stakeholders by surprise given their rapid onset. Various studies have shown that flash drought is more likely to develop when extreme weather conditions persist over the same region for several weeks or longer. Though precipitation deficits over some period of time are a prerequisite for drought, their presence alone is unlikely to lead to flash drought because a lack of precipitation is only one of several factors that contribute to rapid drought development. When below normal precipitation occurs alongside other extreme weather anomalies such as intense heat that enhance atmospheric evaporative demand, their co-occurrence can lead to a rapid depletion of root zone soil moisture content due to increased evapotranspiration. This in turn can lead to a rapid increase in vegetation moisture stress and the onset of flash drought conditions.

Several recent studies have used quantitative definitions based on rapid changes in a given drought monitoring dataset to identify flash droughts in the climatological record. Here, we build upon these recent studies by developing a new flash drought intensity index that accounts not only for their rapid rate of intensification, but also for how severe the drought conditions become during and after the period of rapid intensification. The method includes two components that together capture the suddenness of flash drought development (faster intensification corresponds to a more severe flash drought) and the actual drought severity after the rapid intensification period ends (severe drought conditions lasting for a longer period correspond to a more severe flash drought). The motivation behind this method is the desire to account for both the “flash” and “drought” aspects of flash drought because both of these characteristics influence how people view flash droughts. Thus, a metric that considers both of these aspects provides a more comprehensive assessment of flash drought intensity and its impacts on the environment. In this talk, we will present the proposed flash drought intensity index methodology, along with results from individual case studies and a 40-year climatology to illustrate its use.

How to cite: Otkin, J., Zhong, Y., Hunt, E., Christian, J., Basara, J., Nguyen, H., Wheeler, M., Ford, T., Hoell, A., Svoboda, M., and Anderson, M.: Development of a flash drought intensity index, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1418, 2021.

EGU21-8049 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

The Utility of the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio in Flash Drought Detection, Monitoring, and Evaluation

Jordan Christian, Eric Hunt, Jeffrey Basara, and Jason Otkin

Flash drought is a critical subseasonal phenomenon that leads to significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Given the short timeframe in which these events development (a few weeks to a couple of months), detection and monitoring of rapid drought intensification remains a challenging task. As such, it is essential to have an environmental variable or a set of environmental variables that effectively evaluate flash drought development. This presentation provides an overview of the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) and its utility in 1) detecting flash drought events, 2) monitoring the evolution of flash drought development, 3) quantifying the intensity (rate of intensification) of flash drought, and 4) representing impact (evaporative stress) on the environment. While the calculation of SESR is relatively simple (the ratio of evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration), approaches using evaporative stress can provide a wealth of information with respect to flash drought characteristics (e.g., timing, intensity (rate of change towards drought), severity (magnitude of evaporative stress), length, and shape/evolution). The diverse utility of SESR is presented with known flash drought case studies, such as the 2012 flash drought in the central United States and the 2010 flash drought in western Russia. Additional applications of SESR are also discussed, including climatological analysis and real-time flash drought monitoring.

How to cite: Christian, J., Hunt, E., Basara, J., and Otkin, J.: The Utility of the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio in Flash Drought Detection, Monitoring, and Evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8049, 2021.

EGU21-13683 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Decomposing the Critical Components of Flash Drought Using the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio

Jeffrey Basara, Stuart Edris, Jordan Christian, Bradley Illston, Eric Hunt, Jason Otkin, and Scott Salesky

Flash droughts occur rapidly (~1 month timescale) and have produced significant ecological, agricultural, and socioeconomical impacts. Recent advances in our understanding of flash droughts have resulted in methods to identify and quantify flash drought events and overall occurrence. However, while it is generally understood that flash drought consists of two critical components including (1) anomalous, rapid intensification and (2) the subsequent occurrence of drought, little work has been done to quantify the spatial and temporal occurrence of the individual components, their frequency of covariability, and null events. Thus, this study utilized the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) method of flash drought identification applied to the North American Regional Reanalysis NARR) to quantify individual components of flash drought from 1979 – 2019. Individual case studies were examined and the the drought component was assessed using the United States Drought Monitor for 2010 – 2019.   Additionally, the flash component was assessed using results of previous flash drought studies. Further, the correlation coefficient and composite mean difference was calculated between the flash component and flash droughts identified to determine what regions, if any, experienced rapid intensification but did not fall into flash drought. The results yielded that SESR was able to represent the spatial coverage of drought well for regions east of the Rocky Mountains, with mixed success regarding the intensity of the drought events. The flash component tended to agree well with other flash drought studies though some differences existed especially for areas west of the Rocky Mountains which experience rapid intensification at high frequencies but did not achieve drought designations due to hyper-aridity.

How to cite: Basara, J., Edris, S., Christian, J., Illston, B., Hunt, E., Otkin, J., and Salesky, S.: Decomposing the Critical Components of Flash Drought Using the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13683, 2021.

EGU21-16383 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Flash Drought identification – a comparison of definitions across different datasets.

Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, José Carlos de Araújo, and Eva Nora Paton

Flash droughts recently started to draw a larger curiosity to its occurrence and, therefore, its features. Differently from the slow development of droughts (months to years), flash droughts evolve over a short time (weeks) of a rapid intensification. Over the last few years, multiple methods for flash drought identification were proposed. Those methods, although sharing some characteristics, as tracking of soil water content and/or evapotranspiration (actual and potential), end up not flagging the same periods under flash drought events. We compared six well-known flash drought identification methods from the literature and used two different datasets. The datasets are: (1) the FluxNET15 dataset (Pastorello et al, 2020), a collection of worldwide, quality-controlled measurements of several hydroclimatic variables, such as soil water content, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed; and (2) the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5 – Hersbach et al., 2019) provides over three hundred different data including soil water content in multiple levels, evapotranspiration, precipitation, and temperature. Ten stations from FluxNET15 were selected and the data from the ERA5 on the respective pixels was acquired. The aim of this work is to compare the event identification of different methods using different datasets as input (direct measures and reanalysis based).

How to cite: Lima Alencar, P. H., de Araújo, J. C., and Paton, E. N.: Flash Drought identification – a comparison of definitions across different datasets., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16383, 2021.

EGU21-3241 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Flash droughts in southern South America as captured by ERA5 reanalysis data

Miguel A. Lovino, Ernesto H. Berbery, Gabriela V. Müller, and M. Josefina Pierrestegui

This study investigates the frequency of occurrence of two types of flash droughts in southern South America: heatwave flash droughts (HWFD) and precipitation deficit flash droughts (PDFD). To this end, we employ ERA5 products at 0.25° horizontal resolution under the assumption that they add valuable information in regions of scarce observations. The analysis is based on 1979-2019 ERA5 pentad data of precipitation (P), 2-m air mean temperature (T), evapotranspiration (ET), and root-zone soil moisture (SM). HWFD and PDFD exhibit different functional mechanisms related to surface moisture and surface energy fluxes. In HWFD, high T causes ET to increase and lead to decreases of SM. When combined with negative P anomalies before a drought's onset, there is a significant increase in the magnitude of negative SM anomalies. The mechanism of PDFD formation starts with a precipitation deficit prior to the drought onset. The lack of precipitation causes a reduction in SM and ET, which results in increased T (the Bowen ratio and T increase in response to the decreased ET). 

HWFDs at each grid point and each pentad are identified as those that meet the following conditions: (a) T anomalies are larger than one standard deviation (SD) computed from the 1979-2019 period for that pentad, (b) ET anomalies are positive, (c) P anomalies are negative, and (d) the SM is below the 40th percentile. PDFDs are identified when (a) P is below the 40th percentile, (b) SM% < 40, (c) ET anomalies are negative, and (d) T anomalies > 1 SD. The frequency of occurrence (FOC) of HWFD or PDFD is defined as the percentage of pentads exceeding those thresholds. Composites of all variables for pentads under HWFD or PDFD were prepared to determine such droughts' spatial structure.

Our results indicate that cases of HWFD are more common than those of PDFD. HWFDs are more likely to occur over the arid western region and central-eastern Brazil. HWFDs are more common in both areas in spring (SON) and summer (DJF), reaching FOC values of 14-16% over each season. On the other hand, PDFDs can occur almost everywhere but less frequently. The maximum annual FOC for PDFD (4 - 6%) is located towards Brazil's center. Composite maps show that the most frequent HWFDs occur in regions of highest T and ET anomalies, with a SM decrease to the 10-20th percentile range.

In contrast, the most frequent PDFDs do not occur in regions of highest P deficit, i.e., northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. However, the precipitation deficit towards the center of Brazil, the area with the highest frequency of PDFD, is significant ( -3 mm / day). This P deficit leads to decreased soil moisture to the 20-30th percentile range and mean ET anomalies between -0.2 and -0.5 mm/day.

How to cite: Lovino, M. A., Berbery, E. H., Müller, G. V., and Pierrestegui, M. J.: Flash droughts in southern South America as captured by ERA5 reanalysis data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3241, 2021.

Until the scientific community coalesces around a consensus definition of flash drought, we might usefully distinguish them from “ordinary” droughts by applying a criterion of a rapid intensification from near-normal soil moisture to drought conditions over a period of a few weeks. Here, we use such a definition to generate the first spatially distributed, long-term climatology of flash droughts across Australia, which we derive using a suite of indices that capture both the supply and the demand perspectives of drought: evaporative demand describes the atmospheric demand for moisture from the surface; precipitation, the supply of moisture from the atmosphere to the surface; and evaporative stress, the supply of moisture from the surface relative to evaporative demand.

Regardless of metric-based definition, flash droughts are observed across all seasons. They can terminate as rapidly as they start, but in some cases can eventuate in a seasonal-scale drought. We show that flash-drought variability and its prevalence can be related to ENSO phases, which suggests an opportunity for enhanced seasonal-scale prediction. We examine a case study in the Wimmera Region of southeast Australia (around the South Australia / Victoria border), we show that monitoring precipitation is less useful for capturing the onset of flash drought. Instead, indices that capture the demand perspective of drought--such as the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)--are more useful for monitoring flash-drought development.

How to cite: Hobbins, M., Parker, T., Gallant, A., and Hoffmann, D.: Flash drought in Australia: deriving a long-term climatology from drought metrics based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and evaporative demand., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16380, 2021.

EGU21-6614 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Flash Drought and Heat Waves: An Overview of Cascading and Compound Events

Taylor Grace, Jordan Christian, and Jeffery Basara

Flash droughts and heat waves have substantial impacts on agriculture, socioeconomics, and human health. The combined influence of these two events exacerbate the damage to several sectors. The positive feedback between drought and heat waves has been previously studied, but the connection between flash drought and heat waves (or record temperatures) has only been investigated to occur roughly at the same temporal period. Further understanding the compound and cascading impacts of flash droughts and heat waves could potentially enhance monitoring and/or predictability of flash drought events benefiting subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts, minimize human mortality, and prevent agricultural yield loss. We present a novel approach to analyzing compound and cascading impacts from the flash drought-heat wave relationship by investigating multiple case studies (e.g., 1950s drought event, 2011-2012 U.S. flash drought, and 2019 U.S. flash drought). Several reanalysis datasets were utilized to examine the intensity, temporal duration, and spatial extent relationships between flash drought and heat wave conditions during the case study events. We define heat waves using the following framework which incorporates classifications employed in previous studies; one classification is dependent on a relative threshold (i.e., 95th percentile) applied to daily maximum and minimum temperatures, whereas the second part of the definition utilizes heat index under the same relative threshold. In order for a heat wave event to begin, this definition must hold true for three or more consecutive days for a specified spatial method. Our flash drought analysis incorporated a percentile methodology based on standardized evapotranspiration stress ratio (SESR). Comparison between intensity, spatial extent, and temporal duration relationships for compound and cascading events were of particular focus for this study. A mixture of compound and cascading events were found within one flash drought study (i.e., 2011-2012 flash drought). As such, we further hypothesize that the intensity and temporal duration will differ between compound and cascading events. Yet, we expect the spatial extent to remain positively correlated as shown from previous studies.

How to cite: Grace, T., Christian, J., and Basara, J.: Flash Drought and Heat Waves: An Overview of Cascading and Compound Events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6614, 2021.

EGU21-392 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Space and Time Characteristics of Droughts in Kabul River Basin.

Nadeem Tariq, Akif Rahim, Farhan Aziz, and Muhammad Yousaf

Drought is a complex and less understandable natural phenomenon. Historical characteristics of droughts helps to understand the dynamics of the regional drought patterns. Numerous studies have predicted that the Chitral-Kabul River Basin (CKRB) is prone poses to serious threat due to global warming. This may endanger 10 million in habitants. The aim of this study is to revisit the characteristics of droughts in Kabul watershed, shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan. The monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) grided data (0.5o 0.5o) generated by climate research unit (CRU)version 4 has been used for study during the period 1901–2018. The four characteristics features i.e.  Areal extend, Frequency, Duration and Severity has been studied on spatial and temporal scale. The results show that the Kabul Basin has experienced an increasing extent of severe drought between 1940 and 1960, which increased further after the year 2000. The frequency of drought events in the northern part of the basin is much higher than in the southern part of the basin. Whereas the duration of the drought shows a declining trend in the northern part of the basin. The southern and western parts of the basin experienced a growing trend in the severity drought. At the same time, the incidence of consecutive droughts in the Kabul River basin has also increased. This study suggests that dry conditions in Kabul river basin have been enhanced in recent years. Overall, this study confirms the importance of SPEI for assessing the effects of regional drought.

Keywords: Drought analysis, Frequency, Severity, Duration, Kabul river basin

How to cite: Tariq, N., Rahim, A., Aziz, F., and Yousaf, M.: Space and Time Characteristics of Droughts in Kabul River Basin., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-392, 2021.

As one key innovation in the NOAA hydrological modeling, the National Water Model (NWM) was recently upgraded to v2.0 in June 2019. The NWM could provide not only the streamflow prediction for hydrological guidance, but also the real-time high-resolution land state analysis and assimilation.  Based on the NWM v2.0 retrospective analysis from 1993 to 2018, we evaluated NWM soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration(ET) for the drought monitor application.  The Soil Moisture Percentile (SMP) from NWM is compared with the official US drought monitor (USDM) map in major drought events. The drought categories (D0-D4) based on NWM, is quantitively compared with similar drought monitor from the NLDAS2 multi-model ensemble.  A long time-series soil moisture monitor from CPC leaky bucket model is also compared against NWM, to distinguish the importance of the long temporal record vs high spatial resolution for drought monitor. The rapid intensification or rapid onset drought, i.e. flush drought, is also investigated by the temporal change of the SMP. The preliminary results indicated the NWM could well capture the major droughts during 2000 to 2018. In particular, the flash droughts indicated by the NWM could provide one to three weeks early warning than the USDM map, show great potential in the future application for flash drought detection, monitor and prediction.

 

How to cite: xu, L.: Early detection of the flash drought: a preliminary study by the National Water Model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1315, 2021.

EGU21-6972 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Improved detection of flash droughts using hyper-resolution hydrological modeling

Noemi Vergopolan, Julio E. Herrera-Estrada, Justin Sheffield, Lyndon Estes, and Eric F. Wood

Drought is the most threatening natural hazard for agriculture. Between 1983 and 2003, drought led to a cumulative agriculture production loss of 166 billion U.S. dollars globally, thus monitoring and forecasting capabilities are essential for adaptation and preparedness. Soil moisture simulations play an indispensable role in reconstructing historic drought conditions and predicting future scenarios. However, there is a spatial scale gap between the resolution of soil moisture-based drought indices (10–25 km) and typical farm field sizes (1–2 ha). This spatial-scale gap hampers drought indices’ applicability for capturing and monitoring flash and local-scale agricultural droughts, particularly over heterogeneous landscapes and smallholder farming. 

This work presents a novel approach that uses hyper-resolution modeling and machine learning to identify droughts, characterize their topologies, and evaluate detection rates. We present a case-study for Zambia, where we simulated the root zone soil moisture at a daily 30-m resolution between 1981–2018 using the HydroBlocks land surface model. Using these simulations, we computed a weekly percentile-based drought index, defining it as in drought when the index dropped below the 20th percentile. Given the space and time location of the drought conditions, we applied a Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN) algorithm to determine space- and time-connected clusters/events. We analyzed the topology of 7712 drought events, with a minimum 10-km2 coverage and two weeks duration. Our results showed that 88% were flash droughts (lasting less than one month), 82% were local events (less than 1,000 km2), and 62% were local flash droughts happening during the growing season (October–May). We performed a synthetic spatial scaling analysis to compute the change in detection rate across spatial resolutions. When considering drought conditions over at least 1,000-km2, our results showed that 10–50 km spatial resolution data missed 19 to 44 % of drought conditions captured with 30-m resolution data. This work demonstrates how current capabilities are likely underestimating droughts, and it highlights the urgent need to monitor and forecast droughts at a high spatial resolution. Such refined data can critically benefit local-scale drought mitigation and food security policy design.

How to cite: Vergopolan, N., Herrera-Estrada, J. E., Sheffield, J., Estes, L., and Wood, E. F.: Improved detection of flash droughts using hyper-resolution hydrological modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6972, 2021.

EGU21-13102 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

Brandi Gamelin, Jiali Wang, and V. Rao Kotamarthi

Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21st century.

How to cite: Gamelin, B., Wang, J., and Kotamarthi, V. R.: Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13102, 2021.

EGU21-8555 | vPICO presentations | HS2.4.6 | Highlight

Flash drought as a new normal in a warming climate

Xing Yuan, Yumiao Wang, and Miao Zhang

Conventional droughts are creeping climate anomalies that take months or years to fully develop, causing devastating impact silently. In contrast, flash droughts have been considered as a type of drought with more rapid onset, develop and terminate at a shorter time scale. There has been a hot debate on the definition of flash drought, and whether it is necessary to investigate the impact of flash drought given the duration is usually shorter than conventional drought. We clarify that flash drought is not a monster, while it has complete onset and recovery processes as conventional drought. Flash drought expands the conventional drought from seasonal-to-decadal scales to sub-seasonal scale, where synoptic land-atmospheric coupling might become critical for its onset. Focusing on a once-in-a-century flash drought in late summer of 2019, we analyze the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model data and show that climate change caused by anthropogenic activities (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land use change, etc) has increased the likelihood of such drought onset speed by 42±19%. A further analysis based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble simulations over the global land areas shows that there was no significant trend in frequency during 1850-1970, but flash drought became more frequency in the recent 40 years. All these results suggest that climate change accelerates the drought development speed, and flash drought might become as a new normal in a warming climate. The eco-hydrological impact of this “new normal” will also be discussed by investigating FLUXNET in-situ observations and MODIS satellite retrievals.

How to cite: Yuan, X., Wang, Y., and Zhang, M.: Flash drought as a new normal in a warming climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8555, 2021.

HS2.5.1 – Large scale hydrology

EGU21-125 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

On the influence and limitations of hyper-resolution hydrological modelling – application of the 1 km PCR-GLOBWB model over Europe

Jannis Hoch, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Rens van Beek, and Marc Bierkens

Developing and applying hyper-resolution models over larger extents has long been a quest in hydrological sciences. With the recent developments of global-scale yet fine data sets and advances in computational power, achieving this goal becomes increasingly feasible.

We here present the development, application, and results of the novel 1 km version of PCR-GLOBWB for the period 1981 until 2020. Even though employing global data sets only, we developed, ran, and evaluated the 1 km model for the continent Europe only. In comparison to past versions of PCR-GLOBWB, input data was replaced with sufficiently fine data, for example the recent SoilGrids and MERIT-DEM data. Preliminary results indicate an improvement of model outcome when evaluating simulated discharge, evaporation, and terrestrial water storage.

Additionally, we aim to answer the question to what extent developing hyper-resolution models is actually needed of whether the run times could be saved by using hyper-resolution state-of-the-art meteorological forcing. Therefore, the relative importance of model resolution and forcing resolution was cross-compared. To that end, the ERA5-Land data set was employed at different resolutions, matching the model resolutions at 1 km, 10 km, and 50 km.

Despite multiple challenges still lying ahead before achieve true hyper-resolution, this application of a 1 km model across an entire continent can form the basis for the next steps to be taken.

How to cite: Hoch, J., Sutanudjaja, E., van Beek, R., and Bierkens, M.: On the influence and limitations of hyper-resolution hydrological modelling – application of the 1 km PCR-GLOBWB model over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-125, 2021.

To meet increasing food demands, irrigated agriculture has expanded into semi-arid areas with limited precipitation and surface water availability. This has greatly intensified the dependence of irrigated crops on groundwater withdrawal and caused a steady increase of non-renewable groundwater use. One of the effects of groundwater pumping is the reduction in streamflow through capture of groundwater recharge, with detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems. The degree to which groundwater withdrawal affects streamflow or groundwater storage depends on the nature of the groundwater-surface water interaction (GWSI). So far, analytical solutions that have been derived to calculate the impact of groundwater on streamflow depletion involve single wells and streams and do not allow the GWSI to shift from connected to disconnected, i.e. from a situation with two-way interaction to one with a one-way interaction between groundwater and surface water. Including this shift and also analyse the effects of many wells, requires numerical groundwater models that are expensive to setup. Here, we introduce a simple conceptual analytical framework that allows to estimate to what extent groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater heads and streamflow. It allows for a shift in GWSI, calculates at which critical withdrawal rate such a shift is expected and when it is likely to occur after withdrawal commences. It also provides estimates of streamflow depletion and which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which parts from a reduction in streamflow. The framework is used to provide global maps of critical withdrawal rates and timing, the areas where current withdrawal exceeds critical limits, and maps of groundwater depletion and streamflow depletion rates that result from groundwater withdrawal. The resulting global depletion rates are similar to those obtained from global hydrological models and satellites. The analytical framework is particularly useful for performing first-order sensitivity studies and for supporting hydroeconomic models that require simple relationships between groundwater withdrawal rates and the evolution of pumping costs and environmental externalities.

How to cite: Bierkens, M. F. P., Sutanudjaja, E. H., and Wanders, N.: A conceptual analytical framework to assess the large-scale effects of groundwater withdrawal on groundwater storage and surface water flow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-684, 2021.

EGU21-1317 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Using high-resolution groundwater data for the validation of a global hydrological model: evaluating WaterGAP and calibration/data assimilation (C/DA) performance over France

Kuei-Hua Hsu, Laurent Longuevergne, Annette Eicker, Mehedi Hasan, Andreas Güntner, Olga Engels, Kerstin Schulze, and Jürgen Kusche

The dynamic global water cycle is of ecological and societal importance as it affects the availability of freshwater resources and influences extreme events such as floods and droughts. This work is set in the frame of the GlobalCDA Research Unit, which has the goal of developing a calibration/data assimilation approach (C/DA) to improve the quantification of freshwater resources by combining the global hydrological model WaterGAP with geodetic (GRACE, altimetry) and remote sensing data. This presentation focuses on the validation of the C/DA results using an independent in-situ groundwater data set based on ~1500 monitoring boreholes in France.

The resulting validation data set is applied to independently assess the output of several C/DA experiments: data assimilation using different combinations of the available geodetic and remote sensing data sets and different methods of model calibration, based on either an ensemble Kalman filter approach or a Pareto-optimal calibration algorithm.

To further understand in-situ groundwater and WaterGAP data set, we subtract the coherent signals using Empirical orthogonal function (EOF).  Over 85% variances can be explained by the first 3 EOFs for both data sets.

How to cite: Hsu, K.-H., Longuevergne, L., Eicker, A., Hasan, M., Güntner, A., Engels, O., Schulze, K., and Kusche, J.: Using high-resolution groundwater data for the validation of a global hydrological model: evaluating WaterGAP and calibration/data assimilation (C/DA) performance over France, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1317, 2021.

EGU21-2390 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Representation of crop phenology and associated management practices in the SWAT+ model using global datasets for large scale hydrological applications

Albert Nkwasa, Celray James Chawanda, Ann van Griensven, and Jonas Jägermeyr

Even though cropland cultivation covers over 40% of the planet’s ice free land surface, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, harvesting). For instance, the SWAT+ model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way where the timing of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and sub-tropical regions such as the sub-Saharan Africa where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature.

In this study, we present an approach on how to reasonably incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a SWAT+ model for North Eastern Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data derived from Proba-V satellite and WaPOR ET data respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations especially for regions with a single cropping cycle.  However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in global hydrological models.

How to cite: Nkwasa, A., James Chawanda, C., van Griensven, A., and Jägermeyr, J.: Representation of crop phenology and associated management practices in the SWAT+ model using global datasets for large scale hydrological applications, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2390, 2021.

EGU21-3471 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

On the benefit of the Canadian Small Lake Model to better represent the impact of small natural lakes on GEM-Hydro streamflow simulations.

Etienne Gaborit, Murray MacKay, Camille Garnaud, and Vincent Fortin

EGU21-3776 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

A novel application of an adaptive surrogate-based modeling optimization (ASMO) for the Community Territory System Model (CTSM) in Alaska

Yifan Cheng, Andrew Newman, Sean Swenson, David Lawrence, Anthony Craig, and Joseph Hamman

Climate-induced changes in snow cover, river flow, and freshwater ecosystems will greatly affect the indigenous groups in the Alaska and Yukon River Basin. To support policy-making on climate adaptation and mitigation for these underrepresented groups, an ongoing interdisciplinary effort is being made to combine Indigenous Knowledge with western science (https://www.colorado.edu/research/arctic-rivers/).

A foundational component of this project is a high fidelity representation of the aforementioned land surface processes. To this end, we aim to obtain a set of reliable high-resolution parameters for the Community Territory System Model (CTSM) for the continental scale domain of Alaska and the entire Yukon River Basin, which will be used in climate change simulations. CTSM is a complex, physically based state-of-the-science land surface model that includes complex vegetation and canopy representation, a multi-layer snow model, as well as hydrology and frozen soil physics necessary for the representation of streamflow and permafrost. Two modifications to the default CTSM configuration were made. First, we used CTSM that is implemented with hillslope hydrology to better capture the fine-scale hydrologic spatial heterogeneity in complex terrain. Second, we updated the input soil textures and organic carbon in CTSM using the high-resolution SoilGrid dataset.

In this study, we performed a multi-objective optimization on snow and streamflow metrics using an adaptive surrogate-based modeling optimization (ASMO). ASMO permits optimization of complex land-surface models over large domains through the use of surrogate models to minimize the computational cost of running the full model for every parameter combination. We ran CTSM at a spatial resolution of 1/24th degree and a temporal resolution of one hour using the ERA5 reanalysis data as the meteorological forcings. The ERA5 reanalysis data were bias-corrected to account for the orographic effects. We will discuss the ASMO-CTSM coupling workflow, performance characteristics of the optimization (e.g., computational cost, iterations), and comparisons of the default configuration and optimized model performance.

How to cite: Cheng, Y., Newman, A., Swenson, S., Lawrence, D., Craig, A., and Hamman, J.: A novel application of an adaptive surrogate-based modeling optimization (ASMO) for the Community Territory System Model (CTSM) in Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3776, 2021.

EGU21-3928 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Introducing HydroPy, an updated global hydrology model rewritten in Python

Tobias Stacke and Stefan Hagemann

Global hydrological models (GHM) are a useful tool to investigate the water cycle, to evaluate its sensitivity towards systematic changes, e.g. human impacts, and to project future conditions in river catchments for varying scenarios. They have been successfully applied for decades and there is still room for improvement.

Recently, we revised the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology’s Hydrology model (MPI-HM), which is an established GHM that was used in multiple case studies and inter-comparison projects. While still performing well, its source code (mainly Fortran77) has become increasingly difficult to maintain, thus hampering the implementation of new processes. For this reason, the model was rewritten from scratch based on the MPI-HM process formulations. The new model is mainly written in Python, thereby taking advantage of the highly optimized numpy and xarray libraries, and, hence, is aptly renamed to HydroPy. Using the original formulations, we make sure to preserve or even improve the old model’s skill while the switch to Python allows for much easier debugging and interactive model development.

In our presentation, we will evaluate the performance of the new HydroPy model and demonstrate its skill to simulate river discharge. Furthermore, we compare HydroPy to its predecessor MPI-HM and discuss the reasons of differences between their results.

How to cite: Stacke, T. and Hagemann, S.: Introducing HydroPy, an updated global hydrology model rewritten in Python, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3928, 2021.

EGU21-7154 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Global scale hydrological modelling at 100 m, 1 h resolution, in Python

Kor de Jong, Marc van Kreveld, Debabrata Panja, Oliver Schmitz, and Derek Karssenberg

Data availability at global scale is increasing exponentially. Although considerable challenges remain regarding the identification of model structure and parameters of continental scale hydrological models, we will soon reach the situation that global scale models could be defined at very high resolutions close to 100 m or less. One of the key challenges is how to make simulations of these ultra-high resolution models tractable ([1]).

Our research contributes by the development of a model building framework that is specifically designed to distribute calculations over multiple cluster nodes. This framework enables domain experts like hydrologists to develop their own large scale models, using a scripting language like Python, without the need to acquire the skills to develop low-level computer code for parallel and distributed computing.

We present the design and implementation of this software framework and illustrate its use with a prototype 100 m, 1 h continental scale hydrological model. Our modelling framework ensures that any model built with it is parallelized. This is made possible by providing the model builder with a set of building blocks of models, which are coded in such a manner that parallelization of calculations occurs within and across these building blocks, for any combination of building blocks. There is thus full flexibility on the side of the modeller, without losing performance.

This breakthrough is made possible by applying a novel approach to the implementation of the model building framework, called asynchronous many-tasks, provided by the HPX C++ software library ([3]). The code in the model building framework expresses spatial operations as large collections of interdependent tasks that can be executed efficiently on individual laptops as well as computer clusters ([2]). Our framework currently includes the most essential operations for building large scale hydrological models, including those for simulating transport of material through a flow direction network. By combining these operations, we rebuilt an existing 100 m, 1 h resolution model, thus far used for simulations of small catchments, requiring limited coding as we only had to replace the computational back end of the existing model. Runs at continental scale on a computer cluster show acceptable strong and weak scaling providing a strong indication that global simulations at this resolution will soon be possible, technically speaking.

Future work will focus on extending the set of modelling operations and adding scalable I/O, after which existing models that are currently limited in their ability to use the computational resources available to them can be ported to this new environment.

More information about our modelling framework is at https://lue.computationalgeography.org.

References

[1] M. Bierkens. Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions. Water Resources Research, 51(7):4923–4947, 2015.
[2] K. de Jong, et al. An environmental modelling framework based on asynchronous many-tasks: scalability and usability. Submitted.
[3] H. Kaiser, et al. HPX - The C++ standard library for parallelism and concurrency. Journal of Open Source Software, 5(53):2352, 2020.

How to cite: de Jong, K., van Kreveld, M., Panja, D., Schmitz, O., and Karssenberg, D.: Global scale hydrological modelling at 100 m, 1 h resolution, in Python, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7154, 2021.

EGU21-7511 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Joint assimilation of GRACE satellite and in-situ discharge observations into a global hydrological model

Kerstin Schulze, Olga Engels, Jürgen Kusche, Helena Gerdener, Hannes Müller Schmied, Christoph Niemann, Sebastian Ackermann, and Petra Döll

Global hydrological models simulate water storages and fluxes of the water cycle which is important for e.g. water management decisions and drought/flood predictions. However, the models include many uncertainties due to the model inputs (e.g. climate forcing data), model parameters, and model structure resulting in disagreements with observations. To reduce these uncertainties, the models are typically calibrated against in-situ discharge observations or GRACE-derived total water storage anomalies (TWSA) are integrated into the model by data assimilation.

In this study, we introduce a framework for jointly assimilating multiple observations into the WaterGAP 2.2d model over the Mississippi River Basin for 2003-2018. We do not only assimilate GRACE-derived TWSA but also in-situ discharge observations from gauge stations. In addition, we vary the number as well as the location of the considered discharge stations to derive information about e.g. the influence of assimilating down- or upstream stations.

Our results show a strong influence of the GRACE data and that the assimilation of multiple discharge stations resembles the results of a traditional calibration approach. We expect the most downstream stations to have a larger impact on the assimilation results than the more upstream stations (as the downstream stations already include the information of the upstream stations). The gained insights of this study show a great potential to better assess and understand the global freshwater system and become even more relevant in view of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite. SWOT will be launched in 2022 and is expected to allow the derivation of discharge observations globally for rivers wider than 50-100m.

How to cite: Schulze, K., Engels, O., Kusche, J., Gerdener, H., Müller Schmied, H., Niemann, C., Ackermann, S., and Döll, P.: Joint assimilation of GRACE satellite and in-situ discharge observations into a global hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7511, 2021.

EGU21-9298 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

SWaBME: A PARSIMONIOUS LARGE-SCALE MODEL TO SIMULATE WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS OF TYPICAL LAND COVER TYPES IN BRAZIL

Marlus Sabino, Rafael Rosolem, Ross Woods, Adilson Pacheco de Souza, Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha, and Debora Regina Roberti

Accurately identifying the interactions between large-scale land cover and regional climate in the water balance components is crucial for our understanding of how the transformation of native vegetation into agricultural areas impacts the water cycle. Yet the available regional models to access water balance components are often too complex and typically highly dependent on a large number of inputs and parameters. This inadvertently leads to relatively high uncertainty in the model components and their interactions, undermining their use for identifying controlling factor and mechanisms associated with key hydrological processes. In this work, we address the need for a parsimonious model by introducing the Soil Water Balance Modelling Environment (SWaBME). SWaBME is a novel parsimonious hydrological model used to assess the water balance partitioning of typical land cover types in Brazil, a country that is constantly affected by high rates of deforestation and agricultural expansion. The SWaBME model uses a Penman-Monteith formulation to estimate, separately and explicitly, the evapotranspiration (ET) in the three main components (bare soil evaporation, transpiration, and evaporation from canopy interception), which allow it to distinguish the effects of climate and land cover on the ET. The SWaBME model requires only five parameters to be prescribed a priori, and also contains a set of parameters which are directly provided by the recent development of global georeferenced data products. SWaBME is calibrated by following an alternative approach which evaluates hundreds of thousands of randomly generated parameter sets against observed monthly evapotranspiration and soil moisture data (when available) that are ultimately tested at a pre-defined set of soft rules to ensure model consistency. The model calibration were done individually at 10 flux sites in Brazil,  but we also investigate whether such preferred parameter combinations produce plausible model performances at the country main land-cover and land-use classes: forests, cerrado/woodlands, pasture/grasslands, and soybean and sugarcane crops. From all the parameters combinations, the model was able to satisfactorily retain about 70 to 90% of the sets for forests and cropland biomes, but appears to constrain much more strongly for pasture/grasslands and cerrado biomes with respectively 30% and 1% of the set retained. Most of the introduced soft rules have low to moderate constraining power, and we found that differences in the calibrated parameters for each biome are more pronounced only when the prior information from literature review was used to constrain specific parameters ranges. The performance with the selected parameters showed Root Mean Squared Error of about 20 to 36 mm/month [RR1] at forest and cropland biomes, 23 to 26 mm/month at the cerrado/woodland and 30 to 36 mm/month at pasture/grasslands; ranking slight better when compared to the more complex (in terms of structure and number of parameters) NOAH/GLDAS model with a RMSE ranging from 30 to 60 mm/month. Overall, SWaBME is a parsimonious model aimed at large-scale application of water balance assessment focusing on assessing the impacts of climate and land-use/land-cover changes primarily in Brazil. However, the structure and approach used here can be widely transferred to other regions of the world.

How to cite: Sabino, M., Rosolem, R., Woods, R., Pacheco de Souza, A., Ribeiro da Rocha, H., and Regina Roberti, D.: SWaBME: A PARSIMONIOUS LARGE-SCALE MODEL TO SIMULATE WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS OF TYPICAL LAND COVER TYPES IN BRAZIL, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9298, 2021.

EGU21-11337 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Monthly surface water storage from a global rainfall-runoff model for signal separation of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage variations

Julian Haas, Ehsan Sharifi, Peter Salamon, and Andreas Güntner

EGU21-13146 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Data-driven reservoir storage and release scheme parameterized for all large dams of the United States

Sean Turner, Nathalie Voisin, Jennie Steyaert, and Laura Condon

Large-scale hydrological and water management models (LHMs) require reservoir operations schemes to simulate the influence of human systems on natural earth systems. A typical challenge for representing hundreds of reservoirs in a single LHM is creating consistent scheme capable of simulating realistic water storage and release amidst the diversity in the type of operations. We present a new dataset of observed reservoir operations that includes daily storage, inflow, outflow, evaporation, and elevation level time series for approximately 600 large reservoirs (> 0.1kmstorage) located throughout the conterminous United States. These data have been collected through a combination of mining water agencies databases and formal Freedom of Information (FOI) requests. The newly compiled data are used to derive data-driven simulation schemes, which we compare against contemporary, generic approaches adopted in state-of-the-art LHMs. With release-centric reservoir operations scheme usually more sensitive to biases in hydrologic simulations, we introduce a parsimonious scheme that defines storage targets using harmonic functions that can also be easily extrapolated to un-measured dams. This extrapolation allows us to develop realistic reservoir operations for all 1945 large reservoirs in the conterminous United States currently represented in the Global Reservoir and Dams database.

How to cite: Turner, S., Voisin, N., Steyaert, J., and Condon, L.: Data-driven reservoir storage and release scheme parameterized for all large dams of the United States, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13146, 2021.

EGU21-15224 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Global glacio-hydrological model coupling for streamflow prediction

Pau Wiersma, Rolf Hut, Jerom Aerts, Niels Drost, Harry Zekollari, and Markus Hrachowitz

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have become an increasingly valuable tool in a range of global impact studies related to water resources. However, glacier parameterization is often overly simplistic or non-existent in GHMs. The representation of glacier dynamics and evolution, including related products such as glacier runoff, can be improved by relying on dedicated global glacier models (GGMs). In this study we test the hypothesis that coupling a GGM to a GHM can lead to increased GHM predictive skills and decreased GHM uncertainty through better glacier parameterization. To this end, the GGM GloGEM is coupled with the GHM PCR-GLOBWB 2 within the eWaterCycle II framework. For the years 2001-2012, the coupled model is evaluated against the uncoupled benchmark in 25 large (>50.000 km2) glacierized basins. Across all basins, the coupled model produces higher runoff throughout the melt season. In July and August, it ranges between 100.07% and 352% of the mean monthly benchmark runoff in lowly and highly glaciated basins respectively. The difference can primarily be explained by the inability of PCR-GLOBWB 2 to simulate snow redistribution and glacier retreat, causing an underestimation of glacier runoff. The coupled model better reproduces basin runoff observations primarily in highly glaciated basins, i.e. where the coupling has the most impact. This study underlines the importance of glacier representation in GHMs and demonstrates the potential of coupling a GHM with a GGM for better glacier representation and runoff predictions in glaciated basins.

How to cite: Wiersma, P., Hut, R., Aerts, J., Drost, N., Zekollari, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: Global glacio-hydrological model coupling for streamflow prediction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15224, 2021.

EGU21-16220 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Hydrological impact of the new ECMWF multi-layer snow scheme

Gabriele Arduini, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, and Christel Prudhomme

Snow processes, with the water stored in the snowpack and released as snowmelt, are very important components of the water balance, in particular in high latitude and mountain regions. The evolution of the snow cover and the timing of the snow melt can have major impact on river discharge. Land surface models are used in Earth System models to compute exchanges of water, energy and momentum between the atmosphere and the surface underneath, and also to compute other components of the hydrological cycle. In order to improve the snow representation, a new multi-layer snow scheme is under development in the HTESSEL land surface model of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), to replace the current single-layer snow scheme used in HTESSEL. The new scheme has already been shown to improve snow and 2‐metre temperature, while in this study, the wider hydrological impact is evaluated and documented.

The analysis is done in the reanalysis context by comparing two ERA5-forced offline HTESSEL experiments. The runoff output of HTESSEL is coupled to the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model in order to derive river discharge. The analysis is done globally for the period between 1980-2018. The evaluation was carried out using over 1000 discharge observation time-series with varying catchment size. The hydrological response of the multi-layer snow scheme is generally positive, but in some areas the improvement is not clear and can even be negative with deteriorated signal in river discharge. Further investigation is needed to understand the complex hydrological impact of the new snow scheme, making sure it contributes to an improved description of all hydrological components of the Earth System.

How to cite: Arduini, G., Zsoter, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., and Prudhomme, C.: Hydrological impact of the new ECMWF multi-layer snow scheme, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16220, 2021.

EGU21-2386 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Uncertainty attribution in global hydrological models

Robert Reinecke, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener

Global hydrologic models have become an important research tool in assessing global water resources and hydrologic hazards in a changing environment, and for improving our understanding of how the water cycle is affected by climatic changes worldwide. These complex models have been developed over more than 20 years by multiple research groups, and valuable efforts like ISIMIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) contribute to our growing understanding of model uncertainties and differences. However, due to their complexity and vast data outputs, they remain a Blackbox to certain extents. Especially for processes that are poorly constrained by available observations – like groundwater recharge – model results vary largely, and it is unclear what processes dominate where and when. With the inclusion of even more sophisticated implementations e.g., coupled global gradient-based groundwater simulations, it is getting more and more challenging to understand and attribute these models' results. 

In this talk, we argue that we need to intensify the efforts in investigating uncertainties within these models, including where they originate and how they propagate. We need to carefully and extensively examine where different processes drive the model results by applying state of the art sensitivity analysis methods. To this end, we discuss development needs and describe pathways to foster the application of sensitivity analysis methods to global hydrological models.     

How to cite: Reinecke, R., Pianosi, F., and Wagener, T.: Uncertainty attribution in global hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2386, 2021.

EGU21-3102 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Progress on a comprehensive earth system model evaluation framework

Wouter Knoben, Vincent Vionnet, and Martyn Clark

Thorough evaluation of model fidelity is critical to have faith in a model’s capability to simulate surprise; i.e. in the model’s capability to accurately simulate hydrologic behavior under changing conditions. We define three elements that should support such thorough model evaluation. First, test cases with known solution should be used to isolate the implementation of specific processes in a model and to make sure that the model code can reproduce these known solutions. Second, model simulations of individual processes should be compared to observations of these processes to determine the accuracy and appropriateness of the equations used to represent these processes in the model. Third, benchmarks need to be defined that both provide a lower limit to the accuracy we require the model to have and an upper limit to system’s predictability based on the information contained in the input and output observations.  We present progress on all three themes covering (1) the development of test cases with known solutions called “laugh tests”; (2) progress in setting up a continental-scale model for process-based model evaluation; (3) critical notes about the still common use of aggregated efficiency criteria for model evaluation; (4) a summary of existing work on the need of lower and upper benchmarks which will inform further benchmarking work. A guiding principle in our work is to make our code available as open-source, so that the community can reproduce and use our work if desired. As such, we explicitly invite the community to share their own thoughts about these topics with us.

How to cite: Knoben, W., Vionnet, V., and Clark, M.: Progress on a comprehensive earth system model evaluation framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3102, 2021.

EGU21-5332 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Is large-scale terrestrial hydrological cycling well represented in Earth System Models?

Navid Ghajarnia, Zahra Kalantari, and Georgia Destouni

This paper addresses how large-scale terrestrial water cycling is represented in the land surface schemes of Earth System Models (ESMs). Good representation is essential, for example in regional planning for climate change adaptation and in preparation for hydro-climatic extremes that have recently set records world-wide in devastating consequences for societies and deaths of thousands of people. ESMs provide simulations and projections for the climate system and its interactions with the terrestrial hydrological cycle, and are widely used to study and prepare for associated impacts of climate change. However, the reliability of ESMs is unclear with regard to their representation of large-scale terrestrial hydrology and its changes and interactions between its key variables‎. Despite being crucial for model realism, analysis of co-variations among terrestrial hydrology variables is still largely missing in ESM performance evaluations. To bridge this research gap, we have studied and identified large-scale co-variation patterns between soil moisture (SM) and the main freshwater fluxes of runoff (R), precipitation (P), and evapotranspiration (ET) from observational data and across 6405 hydrological catchments in different parts and climates of the world. Furthermore, we have compared the identified observation-based relationships with those emerging from ESMs and reanalysis products. Our results show that the most strongly correlated freshwater variables based on observational data are also the most misrepresented hydrological patterns in ESMs and reanalysis simulations. In particular, we find SM and R to have the generally strongest large-scale correlations according to the observation-based data, across the numerous studied catchments with widely different hydroclimatic characteristics. Compared to the SM-R correlation signals, the observation-based correlations are overall weaker for the commonly expected closer dependencies of: R on P; ET on P; SM on P; and ET on SM. Nevertheless, this strongest SM-R correlation and the P-R correlation are the most misrepresented hydrological patterns in reanalysis products and ESMs. Our results also show that ESM outputs can perform relatively well in simulating individual hydrological variables, while exhibiting essential inconsistencies in simulated co-variations between variables. Such investigations of large-scale terrestrial hydrology representation by ESMs can enhance our understanding of fundamental ESM biases and uncertainties while providing important insights for systematic ESM improvement with regard to the large-scale hydrological cycling over the world’s continents and regional land areas.

How to cite: Ghajarnia, N., Kalantari, Z., and Destouni, G.: Is large-scale terrestrial hydrological cycling well represented in Earth System Models?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5332, 2021.

EGU21-6064 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Projections of groundwater recharge changes in the Mediterranean: Uncertainties of simulating groundwater recharge in global hydrological models

Daniel Kretschmer, Robert Reinecke, Alexander Gerner, and Markus Disse

In the Mediterranean, climate change effects are projected to be particularly strong, and with them, the already prominent use of groundwater as a source for drinking water and irrigation is likely to increase. The sustainable amount of water that can be extracted from an aquifer is determined by groundwater recharge. Although important as an indicator for groundwater availability, quantification of this process is not sufficiently accurate at large scales due to feedbacks of processes and mechanisms. It is difficult to measure, and its rainfall based simulation is challenging because the absolute uncertainties of other water balance components accumulate, especially in dry areas.

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have proven to be a valuable tool to assess the impacts of climate change on the global water cycle; however, their simulation of groundwater recharge remains uncertain. In this presentation, we show results of an investigation of groundwater recharge by using an ensemble of eight GHMs and four global circulation models (GCMs). The assessment focuses on the Mediterranean for two evaluation periods 1861-2006 and 2006-2100. Of particular interest are the seasonal patterns of groundwater recharge and whether the models show similar seasonal patterns in the past and under different climate change scenarios. The Mediterranean is versatile in terms of topography and climatic conditions. Thus, the variation of groundwater recharge in both spatial and temporal terms is examined thoroughly.

Further, precipitation characteristics can have significant impacts on recharge amounts. Therefore, the correlation of the GCMs daily precipitation data with the modelled recharge is analyzed. Results show a significant variation within the ensemble. Overall, a declining trend in groundwater recharge is dominant.

How to cite: Kretschmer, D., Reinecke, R., Gerner, A., and Disse, M.: Projections of groundwater recharge changes in the Mediterranean: Uncertainties of simulating groundwater recharge in global hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6064, 2021.

EGU21-8852 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Are large scale models useful? A case of nested model domains for assessing current and future stream runoff and sediments

Alena Bartosova, Berit Arheimer, Alban de Lavenne, René Capell, and Johan Strömqvist

Continental and global dynamic hydrological models have emerged recently as tools for e.g. flood forecasting, large-scale climate impact analyses, and estimation of time-dynamic water fluxes into sea basins. One such tool is a dynamic process-based rainfall-runoff and water quality model Hydrological Predictions for Environment (HYPE). We present and compare historical simulations of runoff, soil moisture, aridity, and sediment concentrations for three nested model domains using global, continental (Europe), and national (Sweden) catchment-based HYPE applications. Future impacts on hydrological variables from changing climate were then assessed using the global and continental HYPE applications with ensembles based on 3 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs).

Simulated historical sediment concentrations varied considerably among the nested models in spatial patterns while runoff values were more similar. Regardless of the variation, the global model was able to provide information on climate change impacts comparable to those from the continental and national models for hydrological indicators. Output variables that were calibrated, e.g. runoff, were shown to result in more reliable and consistent projected changes among the different model scales than derived variables such as the actual aridity index. The comparison was carried out for ensemble averages as well as individual GCMs to illustrate the variability and the need for robust assessments.

Global hydrological models are shown to be valuable tools for e.g. first screenings of climate change effects and detection of spatial patterns and can be useful to provide information on current and future hydrological states at various domains. The challenge is (1) in deciding when we should use the large-scale models and (2) in interpreting the results, considering the uncertainty of the model results and quality of data especially at the global scale. Comparison across nested domains demonstrates the significance of scale which needs to be considered when interpreting the impacts alongside with model performance.

Bartosova et al, 2021: Large-scale hydrological and sediment modeling in nested domains under current and changing climate. Accepted to Special Issue Journal of Hydraulic Engineering.

How to cite: Bartosova, A., Arheimer, B., de Lavenne, A., Capell, R., and Strömqvist, J.: Are large scale models useful? A case of nested model domains for assessing current and future stream runoff and sediments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8852, 2021.

EGU21-9452 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Comparing impact of ERA5 vs ERAInterim on hydrology using the eWaterCycle Open Hydrological Platform

Rolf Hut, Niels Drost, Jerom Aerts, Laurene Bouaziz, Willem van Verseveld, Bert Jagers, Fedor Baart, Jannis Hoch, Lieke Melsen, Andrew Bennett, Lousie Arnal, Fabrizio Fenicia, Leonard Santos, Emiliano Gelati, Marco dal Molin, Wouter Knoben, Shervan Gharari, Caitlyn Hall, and Eric Hutton and the the Netherlands eSciencecenter eWaterCycle team

Model comparisons are an important exercise to gain new hydrological insight from the diversity in our communities hydrological models. Current practice in model comparison studies is to have each model be run by the creator/representative of that model and combine the results of all these model runs in a single analysis. 

In this work we present the first major model comparison done within the eWaterCycle Open Hydrological Platform. eWaterCycle is a platform for doing hydrological experiments where hydrological models are accessed as objects from an (online) Jupyter notebook experiment environment. Through the use of GRPC4BMI and containers, (pre-existing and newly made) models in any programming language can be used, without diving into the code of those models. This makes eWaterCycle ideally suited to compare (and couple) models with widely different model setups: conceptual versus distributed for example. eWaterCycle is FAIR by design: any eWaterCycle experiment should be reproducible by anyone without the support of the original model developer. This will make it easier for hydrologists to work with each other's models and speed up the cycle of hydrological knowledge generation. 

In this comparison we’re looking at the impact of the new ERA5 dataset over the older ERA-Interim dataset as a forcing for hydrological models. A key component in making hydrological experiments reproducible and transparent in eWaterCycle is the use of EMSValTool as a pre-processor for hydrological experiments. Using EMSValTool’s recipes structure ensures that model specific input files based on ERA5 or ERA-Interim are all handled identically where possible and that model specific operations are clearly and transparently defined. 

We have run 7 models or model-suites (LISFlood, MARRMoT, WFLOW, HYPE, PCRGlobWB 2.0, SUMMA, HBV) for 6 basins forced with both ERA5 and ERA-Interim and compared model outputs against GRDC discharge observations. From this broad comparison we will conclude what the impact of ERA5 over ERA-Interim will be for hydrological modelling in the foreseeable future. 

How to cite: Hut, R., Drost, N., Aerts, J., Bouaziz, L., van Verseveld, W., Jagers, B., Baart, F., Hoch, J., Melsen, L., Bennett, A., Arnal, L., Fenicia, F., Santos, L., Gelati, E., dal Molin, M., Knoben, W., Gharari, S., Hall, C., and Hutton, E. and the the Netherlands eSciencecenter eWaterCycle team: Comparing impact of ERA5 vs ERAInterim on hydrology using the eWaterCycle Open Hydrological Platform, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9452, 2021.

EGU21-2327 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Groundwater Recharge Indicators at the European scale

Sandra Lanini, Yvan Caballero, Pierre Le Cointe, Stéphanie Pinson, and Jean-François Desprats

One of the goals of the ERA4CS INDECIS project (http://www.indecis.eu/) is to use available climate datasets at the European scale to derive user-oriented indicators. In this framework, we adapted a methodology to compute the present and future groundwater recharge by precipitation at the European scale. This indicator of groundwater availability aims at supporting water resource management.

The scientific approach partly relies on two indexes related to precipitation infiltration at the watershed scale. The first one is the BaseFlow Index (BFI) which is considered as a fair approximation of the average infiltration coefficient for hydrogeological basins. The second one is the Network Development and Persistence Index (IDPR), a cartographic index calculated from the differences between the real river and the theoretical thalwegs networks. The IDPR provides a qualitative indication of infiltration versus runoff, and is now available at the European scale with a 50 m resolution. We computed the mean interannual BFI over the 1981 – 2010 period for more than 350 gauged and not influenced watersheds distributed over France, with various geological contexts and climates. These BFI values proved to be linearly correlated to the spatial average of the IDPR over these watersheds. The relationship between the two datasets established on these gauged basins was then applied to convert the European IDPR map into an effective precipitation infiltration ratio (EPIR) map.

The modelling process finally consisted in computing the effective precipitation at a daily time step on each cell of a mesh covering the European area. Three different water budget models were applied. The only parameter of these models is the soil water capacity provided by European Soil Data Centre. For the present period, the models were fed with the E-OBS datasets available on a 0.25 degree grid. Resulting time series were time-averaged and multiplied by the spatialized EPIR to provide a European map of annual potential recharge by precipitation infiltration. For the future periods, the same methodology can be applied. Ensemble simulations are in progress using EURO-CORDEX climate projections as input of the hydrological models.

How to cite: Lanini, S., Caballero, Y., Le Cointe, P., Pinson, S., and Desprats, J.-F.: Groundwater Recharge Indicators at the European scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2327, 2021.

EGU21-3104 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

A global analysis of spatial correlation lengths of water storage anomalies 

Ehsan Sharifi, Julian Haas, Eva Boergens, Henryk Dobslaw, and Andreas Güntner

This study has been run in the context of the European Union research project G3P (Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product) on developing Groundwater storage (GW) as a new product for the EU Copernicus Services. GW variations can be derived on a global scale by subtracting from total water storage (TWS) variations based on the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions variations in other water storage compartments such as soil moisture, snow, surface water bodies, and glaciers. Due to the nature of data acquisition by GRACE and GRACE-FO, the data need filtering in order to reduce North-South-oriented striping errors. However, this also leads to a spatially smoothed TWS signal. For a consistent subtraction of all individual storage compartments from GRACE-based TWS, the individual data sets for all other hydrological compartments need to be filtered in a similar way as GRACE-based TWS.

In order to test different filter methods, we used compartmental water storage data of the global hydrological model WGHM. The decorrelation filter known as DDK filter that is routinely used for GRACE and GRACE-FO data introduced striping artifacts in the smoothed model data. Thus, we can conclude that the DDK filter is not suitable for filtering water storage data sets that do not exhibit GRACE-like correlated error patterns. Alternatively, an isotropic Gaussian filter might be used. The best filter width of the Gaussian filter is determined by minimizing the differences between the empirical spatial correlation functions of each water storage and the spatial correlation function of GRACE-based TWS. We also analyzed time variations of correlation lengths such as seasonal effects. Finally, the selected filter widths are applied to each compartmental storage data set to remove them from TWS and to obtain the GW variations. 

 

Acknowledgement :

This study received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement nº 870353.

How to cite: Sharifi, E., Haas, J., Boergens, E., Dobslaw, H., and Güntner, A.: A global analysis of spatial correlation lengths of water storage anomalies , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3104, 2021.

EGU21-4674 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Water-balance response to climate variability, a small-to-large scale Italian dataset

Giulia Bruno, Francesco Avanzi, Simone Gabellani, Luca Ferraris, Edoardo Cremonese, Marta Galvagno, and Christian Massari

Understanding how deficit of precipitation impacts the hydrological cycle is of growing interest and is essential for water resource management. It has been recently observed that the relationship between precipitation and runoff during droughts is subjected to a shift in the sense that the predicted runoff is much less than the one expected due to the deficit in precipitation. Unraveling why this occurs requires an accurate knowledge of all the components of the water balance equation. However, large-scale and consistent samples of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, ET and change in storage have always been challenging to collect. Here, we hypothesized that blending ground-based and remote-sensing data products could fill this gap. We present a countrywide dataset of catchment-scale water balance, covering the last 10 water years in Italy. Italy shows a broad variety of climatic and topographic features and faced several droughts over recent years. We use ground-based daily runoff data, interpolated precipitation maps, and a remote-sensed daily evapotranspiration dataset from the LSASAF ET product. The ET dataset is additionally compared with flux towers data across the country, obtaining root mean square errors on the order of 30 mm/month. Lastly, changes in storage are estimated to close the water balance. More than 100 catchments - including the major Italian basins - are selected, according to data availability and reliability. These catchments cover a wide range of size, morphologic and climatic characteristics. 

This dataset is a strategic source of information to analyze catchment-scale runoff, ET and storage response to climatic variability across climates and landscapes.

How to cite: Bruno, G., Avanzi, F., Gabellani, S., Ferraris, L., Cremonese, E., Galvagno, M., and Massari, C.: Water-balance response to climate variability, a small-to-large scale Italian dataset, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4674, 2021.

Land surface moisture plays a crucial role in precipitation patterns across the globe. Evapotranspiration (the combination of ground evaporation (E), canopy evaporation (I), and transpiration (T)) from the land surface can influence precipitation through local recycling and the propagation of moisture to downwind regions. However, the role of the land surface and of T, E, and I individually in these two processes are not well understood and limit our understanding of the role of the land surface for both drought onset and intensification. Here we use a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2 with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 and the Community Land Model CLM5) with online water tracers to directly track and quantify the movement of T, E and I moisture across North America for the 1985–2015 period. Initial findings suggest that over 50% of summer precipitation for much of central and northern US and Canada comes from the land surface. The tracers also suggest that, with the exception of the US west coast and desert southwest, 40-60% of land precipitation across the continent comes from the T component. The connection between land surface moisture and drought episodes are examined for different regions of North America. The individual roles of T, E, and I in shaping droughts are also examined.

How to cite: Harrington, T., Skinner, C., and Nusbaumer, J.: Connecting the Land Surface to Droughts: How Transpiration, Canopy Evaporation, and Ground Evaporation Impact Droughts Across the North American Continent, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8856, 2021.

EGU21-9634 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Impact of climate change on groundwater : a global assessment with the CNRM climate models

Maya Costantini, Bertrand Decharme, and Jeanne Colin

Groundwaters found in aquifers play an important role in the hydrological cycle and are essential for human activities and for natural ecosystems. They account for approximately one third of the human fresh water withdrawals and sustain ecosystems by supplying soil moisture during dry periods. Climate change will impact every components of the climate system and aquifers are no exception. Precipitation is the main driver of groundwater recharge and relatively shallow aquifers respond rather quickly to changes in the precipitation rates. Thus, climate change should have an impact on water table depths and could lead to water scarcity and food insecurity in some regions. Therefore, knowing the response of the aquifers to climate change is important to improve the development of mitigation and adaptation plans in water management. 

Here, the response of unconfined shallow aquifers to climate change is assessed at the global scale using the global climate model developed in our institute (CNRM) : CNRM-CM6 and CNRM-ESM2. We analyse simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) following four pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations until 2100. The CNRM models are the only global climate models representing the physicals processes involving aquifers. Results show that aquifers should replenish at the global scale on average, which is consistent with the projected global intensification of precipitation. However, the evolution of water table depths is not uniform and presents large regional disparities. Additionally to climate change, anthropogenic impacts like intensive groundwater withdrawals for agricultural, domestic and industrial purposes should exacerbate the depletion in some aquifers basins. In order to identify these regions, the evolution of the water table depths is compared with the population density. This analysis highlights the widening risk of water stress in some already aquifer-dependant regions.

How to cite: Costantini, M., Decharme, B., and Colin, J.: Impact of climate change on groundwater : a global assessment with the CNRM climate models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9634, 2021.

EGU21-13668 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis

Nima Shokri, Amirhossein Hassani, and Adisa Azapagic

Population growth and climate change is projected to increase the pressure on land and water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This pressure is expected to affect all driving mechanisms of soil salinization comprising alteration in soil hydrological balance, sea salt intrusion, wet/dry deposition of wind-born saline aerosols — leading to an increase in soil salinity. Soil salinity influences soil stability, bio-diversity, ecosystem functioning and soil water evaporation (1). It can be a long-term threat to agricultural activities and food security. To devise sustainable action plan investments and policy interventions, it is crucial to know when and where salt-affected soils occur. However, current estimates on spatio-temporal variability of salt-affected soils are majorly localized and future projections in response to climate change are rare. Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, we related the available measured soil salinity values (represented by electrical conductivity of the saturated paste soil extract, ECe) to some environmental information (or predictors including outputs of Global Circulation Models, soil, crop, topographic, climatic, vegetative, and landscape properties of the sampling locations) to develop a set of data-driven predictive tools to enable the spatio-temporal predictions of soil salinity. The outputs of these tools helped us to estimate the extent and severity of the soil salinity under current and future climatic patterns at different geographical levels and identify the salinization hotspots by the end of the 21st century in response to climate change. Our analysis suggests that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm2 located in non-frigid zones has been salt-affected in at least three-fourths of the 1980 - 2018 period (2). At the country level, Brazil, Peru, Sudan, Colombia, and Namibia were estimated to have the highest rates of annual increase in the total area of soils with an ECe ≥ 4 dS m-1. Additionally, the results indicate that by the end of the 21st century, drylands of South America, southern and Western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa will be the salinization hotspots (compared to the 1961 - 1990 period). The results of this study could inform decision-making and contribute to attaining the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for land and water resources management.

1. Shokri-Kuehni, S.M.S., Raaijmakers, B., Kurz, T., Or, D., Helmig, R., Shokri, N. (2020). Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore-Scale Processes to Field-Scale Responses. Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026707. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019WR026707

2. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 52, 33017–33027. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117

How to cite: Shokri, N., Hassani, A., and Azapagic, A.: Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13668, 2021.

EGU21-14627 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.1

Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying ecosystem-threatening flow alterations

Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, and Matti Kummu

The benefits of harnessing rivers into human use should not come with a disproportionate expense on the Earth system. Especially, freshwater ecosystems suffer greatly from direct and indirect human impacts, such as excessive water withdrawals and climate change, which are expected to only increase in the near future. Here, we aim for quantifying the extent and degree of considerable flow alterations that threaten the well-being of freshwater ecosystems, across the world.

At the global scale, the ecological status of river systems is often assessed using global hydrological models (GHMs) and hydrological environmental flow (EF) methods. These suffer from substantial uncertainties: 1) the GHMs parameterised with variable climate forcings may give highly dispersed discharge estimates and 2) individual hydrological EF methods capture ecosystem water needs poorly. We tackle these sources of uncertainty by introducing a novel methodology: environmental flow envelopes (EFEs). The EFE is an envelope of safe discharge variability between a lower and an upper bound, defined at the sub-basin scale in monthly time resolution. It is based on pre-industrial (1801-1860) discharge and a large ensemble of EF methods, GHMs, and climate forcings, using ISI-MIP2b data. Using the EFE, we can simultaneously assess the frequency and severity of ecosystem-threatening flow alterations.

Comparing post-industrial (1976-2005) discharge to the EFEs, discharge in 32.7% of the total 3860 sub-basins, covering 28.4% of the global landmass, violates the EFE during more than 10% of all months across four GHMs. These violations are considered as severe threats to freshwater ecosystems. The most impacted regions include areas with high anthropogenic pressure, such as the Middle East, India, Eastern Asia, and Middle America. The violations clearly concentrate on the EFE lower bound during low or intermediate flow seasons. Discharge in 61.4% of sub-basins violates the EFE during more than 10% of low flow season months, average violation being 47.5% below the safe limit denoted by EFE lower bound. Indications of significantly increased flows by violations of the EFE upper bound are fewer and further apart, as well as lower bound violations during high flow season.

Although fractional discharge allocations alone cannot fully capture the ecosystem water needs, this study is a step towards less uncertainty in global EF assessments. The introduced method provides a novel, globally robust way of estimating ecosystem water needs at the sub-basin scale. The results of this study underline the importance of the low flow season, during which EFE violations are the most prevalent. While only preliminary evidence of significantly increased flows emerges in relatively few areas, the EFE upper bound would benefit from further research. The EFE methodology can be used for exploring macro-regional areas where anthropogenic flow alteration threatens freshwater ecosystems the most. However, case-specific studies incorporating factors beyond quantitative flow only are required for practical implications.

How to cite: Virkki, V., Alanärä, E., Porkka, M., Ahopelto, L., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., and Kummu, M.: Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying ecosystem-threatening flow alterations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14627, 2021.

HS2.5.2 – Recent advancement in estimating global, continental and regional scale water balance components

EGU21-13020 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Integrating field work and large-scale modeling to improve assessment of karst water resources

Andreas Hartmann, Yan Liu, Tunde Olarinoye, Romane Berthelin, and Vera Marx

EGU21-8162 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Intelligently Gapfilling Earth Observations: Towards a coherent observational view of Land Hydrology

Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Earth observations have many missing values. Their complex patterns of missingness can be a significant hurdle for studying Earth system dynamics and climate change impacts. To overcome this issue, missing values are regularly imputed, i.e. infilled, using techniques such as interpolation. However, the common practice to do this for each variable separately can negatively affect the covariance between different data products, resulting in biased estimates. Moreover, relying solely on interpolation for infilling missing values makes only inefficient use of information that may be available from other variables at the same location in space and time.

Here we propose a modular gap-filling algorithm that exploits the multivariate nature of Earth system observations and builds upon the notion that if a value is missing, it is likely that some other variables will be observed at the same location and time and their relationship can be learned. To this end, the algorithm expands upon simple interpolation by additionally applying a statistical imputation method that is designed to account for covariance across variables.

The algorithm is tested using gap-free reanalysis data of relevant variables to land surface processes: ground temperature, precipitation, terrestrial water storage and soil moisture. These variables were masked to match missingness patterns of remote sensing observations. Subsequently, the gap fill estimates can then be compared to the original reanalysis values to assess the merit of the gap fill.

Overall, estimates of the proposed algorithm have lower bias and higher correlation compared to simple interpolation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the multivariate core of the algorithm improves the physical consistency across the considered variables. In case studies focussing on large-scale droughts, extreme values are correctly reconstructed even in cases of high fraction of missing values. The algorithm can thus be used as a flexible tool for gapfilling remote sensing and in-situ observations commonly used in climate and environmental research and create a coherent observational dataset of a flexible set of observational products.

How to cite: Bessenbacher, V., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Intelligently Gapfilling Earth Observations: Towards a coherent observational view of Land Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8162, 2021.

EGU21-742 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Global BROOK90: validation, uncertainties, current progress and future outline.

Ivan Vorobevskii and Rico Kronenberg

‘Just drop a catchment and receive reasonable model output’ – still stays as motto and main idea of the ‘Global BROOK90’ project. The open-source R-package is build-up on global land cover, soil, topographical, meteorological datasets and the lumped hydrological model as a core to simulate water balance components on HRU scale all over the world in an automatic mode. First introduced in EGU2020 and followed by GitHub code release including an publication of methodology with few examples we want to continue with the insights on the current state and highlight the future steps of the project.

A global validation of discharge and evapotranspiration components of the model showed promising results. We used 190 small (median size of 64 km2) catchments and FLUXNET data which represent a wide range of relief, vegetation and soil types within various climate zones. The model performance was evaluated with NSE, KGE, KGESS and MAE. In more than 75 % of the cases the framework performed better than the mean of the observed discharge. On a temporal scale the performance is significantly better on a monthly vs daily scale. Cluster analysis revealed that some of the site characteristics have a significant influence on the performance. Additionally, it was found that Global BROOK90 outperforms GloFAS ERA5 discharge reanalysis (for the category with smallest catchments).

A cross-combination of three different BROOK90 setups and three forcing datasets was set up to reveal uncertainties of the Global BROOK90 package using a small catchment in Germany as a case study. Going from local to regional and finally global scale we compared mixtures of model parameterization schemes (original calibrated BROOK90, EXTRUSO and Global BROOK90) and meteorological datasets (local gauges, RaKlida and ERA5). Besides high model performances for a local dataset plus a calibrated model and weaker results for ERA5 and the Global BROOK90, it was found that the ERA5 dataset is still able to provide good results when combined with a regional and local parameterization. On the other side, the combination of a global parameterization with local and regional forcings gives still adequate, but much worse results. Furthermore, a hydrograph separation revealed that the Global BROOK90 parameterization as well as ERA5 discharge data perform weaker especially within low flow periods.

Currently, some new features are added to the original package. First, with the recent release of the ERA5 extension, historical simulations with the package now are expanded to 1950-2021 period. Additionally, an alternative climate reanalysis dataset is included in the framework (Merra-2, 0.5x0.625-degree spatial resolution, starting from 1980). A preliminary validation shows insignificant differences between both meteorological datasets with respect to the discharge based model performance.

Further upgrades of the framework will include the following core milestones: recognition of forecast and climate projections and parameter optimization features. In the nearest future we plan to utilize full power of the Climate Data Store for easy access to seasonal forecasts (i.e. ECMWF, DWD, NCEP) as well as climate projections (CMIP5) to extend the package’s scope to predict near and far future water balance components.

How to cite: Vorobevskii, I. and Kronenberg, R.: Global BROOK90: validation, uncertainties, current progress and future outline., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-742, 2021.

EGU21-3444 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

River parametrisation of the JULES land surface model for improved runoff routing at the global scale.

Aristeidis Koutroulis, Manolis Grillakis, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor Burke

The JULES land surface model has a wide ranging application in studying different processes of the earth system including hydrological modeling [1]. Our aim is to tune the existing configuration of the global river routing scheme at 0.5o spatial resolution [2] and improve river flow simulation performance at finer temporal scales. To do so, we develop a factorial experiment of varying effective river velocity and meander coefficient, components of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) river routing scheme. We test and adjust best performing configurations at the basin scale based on observations from GRDC 230 stations that exhibiting a variety of hydroclimatic and physiographic conditions. The analysis was focused on watersheds of near-natural conditions [3] to avoid potential influences of human management on river flow. The HydroATLAS database [4] was employed to identify basin scale descriptive hydro-environmental indicators that could be associated with the components of the TRIP. These indicators summarize hydrologic and physiographic characteristics of the drainage area of each flow gauge. For each basin we select the best performing set of TRIP parameters per basin resulting to the optimal efficiency of river flow simulation based on the Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency metrics. We find that better performance is driven predominantly by characteristics related to the stream gradient and terrain slope. These indicators can serve as descriptors for extrapolating the adjustment of TRIP parameters for global land configurations at 0.5o spatial resolution using regression models.

 

[1] Papadimitriou et al 2017, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4379–4401

[2] Falloon et al 2007. Hadley Centre Tech. Note 72, 42 pp.

[3] Fang Zhao et al 2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 075003

[4] Linke et al 2019, Scientific Data 6: 283.

How to cite: Koutroulis, A., Grillakis, M., Mathison, C., and Burke, E.: River parametrisation of the JULES land surface model for improved runoff routing at the global scale., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3444, 2021.

Unlike global climate models, hydrological models cannot simulate the feedbacks among atmospheric processes, vegetation, water, and energy exchange at the land surface. This severely limits their ability to quantify the impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations on evapotranspiration and thus runoff. Hydrological models generally calculate actual evapotranspiration as a fraction of potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is computed as a function of temperature and net radiation and sometimes of humidity and wind speed. Almost no hydrological model takes into account that PET changes because the vegetation responds to changing CO2 and climate. This active vegetation response consists of three components. With higher CO2 concentrations, 1) plant stomata close, reducing transpiration (physiological effect) and 2) plants may grow better, with more leaves, increasing transpiration (structural effect), while 3) climatic changes lead to changes in plants growth and even biome shifts, changing evapotranspiration. Global climate models, which include dynamic vegetation models, simulate all these processes, albeit with a high uncertainty, and take into account the feedbacks to the atmosphere.

Milly and Dunne (2016) (MD) found that in the case of RCP8.5 the change of PET (computed using the Penman-Monteith equation) between 1981- 2000 and 2081-2100 is much higher than the change of non-water-stressed evapotranspiration (NWSET) computed by an ensemble of global climate models. This overestimation is partially due to the neglect of active vegetation response and partially due to the neglected feedbacks between the atmosphere and the land surface.

The objective of this paper is to present a simple approach for hydrological models that enables them to mimic the effect of active vegetation on potential evapotranspiration under climate change, thus improving computation of freshwater-related climate change hazards by hydrological models. MD proposed an alternative approach to estimate changes in PET for impact studies that is only a function of the changes in energy and not of temperature and achieves a good fit to the ensemble mean change of evapotranspiration computed by the ensemble of global climate models in months and grid cells without water stress. We developed an implementation of the MD idea for hydrological models using the Priestley-Taylor equation (PET-PT) to estimate PET as a function of net radiation and temperature. With PET-PT, an increasing temperature trend leads to strong increases in PET. Our proposed methodology (PET-MD) helps to remove this effect, retaining the impact of temperature on PET but not on long-term PET change.

We implemented the PET-MD approach in the global hydrological model WaterGAP2.2d. and computed daily time series of PET between 1981 and 2099 using bias-adjusted climate data of four global climate models for RCP 8.5. We evaluated, computed PET-PT and PET-MD at the grid cell level and globally, comparing also to the results of the Milly-Dunne study. The global analysis suggests that the application of PET-MD reduces the PET change until the end of this century from 3.341 mm/day according to PET-PT to 3.087 mm/day (ensemble mean over the four global climate models).

Milly, P.C.D., Dunne K.A. (2016). DOI:10.1038/nclimate3046.

How to cite: Peiris, T. A. and Döll, P.: A simple approach to mimic the effect of active vegetation in hydrological models to better estimate hydrological variables under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12025, 2021.

EGU21-13224 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Global estimation of rainfall-runoff model parameters: an empirical experiment

Léonard Santos, Jafet C. M. Andersson, and Berit Arheimer

When setting up global scale hydrological models, parameter estimation is a crucial step. Some modellers assign pre-defined parameter values to physical characteristics (such as soil, land cover, etc.) while others estimate parameter values based on observed hydrological data. In both cases, the regionalisation of parameters is a major challenge since both literature values and observed data are often lacking and assumptions are needed. This work aims at identifying suitable parameter regions to perform a regional calibration of the global model World-Wide HYPE (Arheimer et al., 2020) through empirical tests.
The work is organised in two steps. First we compare different ways of taking soil into account when creating hydrological response units. The soil is either considered uniform, indexed to land use or to a simplified soil map. The best soil representation is selected based on the model performance at a global scale. Based on this best representation, the second step aims at evaluating different ways to regionalise the soil parameters of the hydrological model.  Previous classifications of hydrological uniform regions are tested for regionalisation of model parameters: hydrobelts (Meybeck et al., 2013), Köppen climate regions (Kottek et al., 2006), soil capacity index (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016) and hydroclimatic regions (Knoben et al., 2018).
For the first step, the results show that the best solution is to represent soil by land use. This counterintuitive result is due to the fact that adding information based on a soil map add another calibration step. To avoid increased equifinality, such an effort increases the need for data, which is often lacking at the global scale.  For the second step, the creation of parameter regions contributed with minor improvement in terms of model performances, probably because the choice of regions was not suitable for the model approach. Also, the improvement has shown to be higher when available discharge data for calibration were better distributed over the different regions. This work shows that, when calibrating a model at very large scale, a balance should be found between available data and parameter regions resolution. 


References
Arheimer, B., Pimentel, R., Isberg, K., Crochemore, L., Andersson, J. C. M., Hasan, A., and Pineda, L.: Global catchment modelling using World-Wide HYPE (WWH), open data and stepwise parameter estimation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24, 535–559, 2020.
Knoben, W. J., Woods, R. A., and Freer, J. E.: A Quantitative Hydrological Climate Classification Evaluated With Independent Streamflow Data. Water Resources Research, 54(7), 5088-5109, 2018.
Kottek, M., Grieser, J., Beck, C., Rudolf, B., and Rubel, F.: World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 259-263, 2006.
Meybeck, M., Kummu, M., and Dürr, H. H.: Global hydrobelts and hydroregions: improved reporting scale for waterrelated issues? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(3), 1093-1111, 2013.
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., Gao, H., Jägermeyr, J., Senay, G. B., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Guerschman, J. P., Keys, P. W., Gordon, L. J., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation, Hydrology Earth System Sciences, 20, 1459-1481, 2016.

How to cite: Santos, L., Andersson, J. C. M., and Arheimer, B.: Global estimation of rainfall-runoff model parameters: an empirical experiment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13224, 2021.

EGU21-2380 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A multi-forcing observation-based global runoff reanalysis

Gionata Ghiggi, Vincent Humphrey, Sonia Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson

Although river flow is the best-monitored variable of the terrestrial water cycle, the scarcity of available in situ observations in large portions of the world has until now hindered the development of consistent observational estimates with global coverage. Recently, fusing sparse in-situ river discharge observations with gridded precipitation and temperature using machine learning has shown great potential for developing global monthly runoff estimates (Ghiggi et al., 2019). However, the accuracy of the utilised gridded precipitation and temperature products is variable and the corresponding uncertainty in the resulting runoff and river flow estimates was not yet quantified.

Global-RUNoff ENSEMBLE (G-RUN ENSEMBLE) (Ghiggi et al., in review) provides a multi-forcing global reanalysis of monthly runoff rates at a 0.5° resolution, composed of up to 525 runoff simulations. The G-RUN ENSEMBLE is based on 21 different atmospheric forcing datasets, overall spanning the period 1901-2019. The reconstructions are benchmarked against a comprehensive set of global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) simulations, using a large database of river discharge observations that were not used for model training as a reference.

Overall, the G-RUN ENSEMBLE shows good accuracy compared to the set of GHMs evaluated, especially with respect to the reproduction of the dynamics and seasonality of monthly runoff rates. We found that the spread imposed by the atmospheric forcing data in the G-RUN ENSEMBLE is small compared to the spread observed within the ensemble of GHMs simulations driven with a subset of such forcings. This might occur because GHMs are more impacted by biases in the input meteorological forcing and are more susceptible to accumulate errors over the simulation time than the adopted machine learning approach.

In summary, the multi-forcing nature of the G-RUN ENSEMBLE allows to quantify the uncertainty associated with the currently available atmospheric forcings, thereby paving the way for more robust and reliable water resources assessments, climate change attribution studies, hydro-climatic process studies as well as evaluation, calibration and refinement of GHMs.

References

Ghiggi, G., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gudmundsson, L. 2019: GRUN: an observation-based global gridded runoff dataset from 1902 to 2014, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1655–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019.

Ghiggi, G., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gudmundsson, L.: G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A multi-forcing observation-based global runoff reanalysis, Water Res. Res., in review.

How to cite: Ghiggi, G., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S., and Gudmundsson, L.: G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A multi-forcing observation-based global runoff reanalysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2380, 2021.

EGU21-10248 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

​Community Land Model v5 runoff evaluation in small near-natural catchments in Fennoscandia

Emiliano Gelati, Yeliz Yilmaz, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, and Lena Merete Tallaksen

Validating model representations of land surface processes is crucial for reducing the uncertainty of future projections, especially at high latitudes where climate change is amplified. As part of a regional assessment of the latest version of the Community Land Model (CLM5) in cold environments, we compare simulated grid-scale runoff with discharge measurements in small near-natural catchments in Fennoscandia. CLM5 is the land component of the Norwegian Earth System Model. Evaluating land surface models involves a large set of state and flux variables, for many of which direct measurements are either not available or not representative at the typical modelling spatial scales (100–102 km). In this context, discharge measurements provide valuable information that can be used to assess how well models are able to reproduce the downstream outcome of catchment hydrologic processes. We conduct two CLM5 simulations at 0.25° spatial resolution over Fennoscandia: one forced with the default 3-hourly 0.5° GSWP3v1 product (2000-2014) and another with the hourly 0.25° ERA5 near-surface atmospheric data (2000-2019). To characterise forcing uncertainty, precipitation and temperature forcing data are compared to the daily observational Nordic Gridded Climate Dataset (Norwegian Meteorological Institute), which covers Fennoscandia at 1 km resolution. Daily discharge and catchment information are obtained from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and the Finnish Environment Institute. To avoid uncertainties due to human alterations and model representation of river routing, we select time series of unregulated catchments whose areas are smaller than 103 km2 and thus are compatible with single model grid-cells. Accordingly, we evaluate CLM5 daily total runoff, which is the sum of subsurface and surface runoff prior to channel routing, against observed discharge. We apply the following criteria: (1) bias, variance error and correlation, to assess the reproduction of the overall water balance and of the amplitude and shape of the hydrograph; (2) average seasonal cycles, to evaluate how runoff regimes are simulated; and (3) occurrence and persistence of low and high flow anomalies, to analyse the ability of the model to predict extremes. Further, we investigate whether spatio-temporal patterns of agreement/discrepancy between modelled and measured runoff correlate with atmospheric forcing uncertainties, land surface properties, or climatology. In particular, we try to detect model runoff errors prevailing in specific environmental conditions. This study aims to inform future regional CLM5 experiments that will test atmospheric forcing corrections and alternate parametrisations of hydrologic processes, in the framework of the Land-ATmosphere Interactions in Cold Environments (LATICE) research initiative.

How to cite: Gelati, E., Yilmaz, Y., Jørgensen Bakke, S., and Tallaksen, L. M.: ​Community Land Model v5 runoff evaluation in small near-natural catchments in Fennoscandia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10248, 2021.

EGU21-903 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

A global gridded monthly water withdrawal dataset for multiple sectors from 2015 to 2100 at 0.5° resolution under a range of socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Zarrar Khan, Neal Graham, Chris Vernon, Thomas Wild, Min Chen, and Katherine Calvin

Future sector-specific water withdrawals at a temporal resolution capable of representing patterns in seasonality and a commonly used spatial resolution are an important factor to consider for energy, water, land and environmental research.  Projected water withdrawals that are harmonized with assumptions for alternate futures that capture socioeconomic and climatic variation are critical for many modeling studies on future global and regional dynamics. Here we generate a novel global gridded water withdrawals dataset by coupling the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a land use spatial downscaling model (Demeter), a global hydrologic framework (Xanthos) and a water withdrawal downscaling model (Tethys) for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The dataset provides sectoral monthly data at 0.5° resolution for years 2015 to 2100. The presented dataset will be useful for both global and regional analysis looking at the impacts of socioeconomic, climate and technological futures as well as in characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

How to cite: Khan, Z., Graham, N., Vernon, C., Wild, T., Chen, M., and Calvin, K.: A global gridded monthly water withdrawal dataset for multiple sectors from 2015 to 2100 at 0.5° resolution under a range of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-903, 2021.

EGU21-10453 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Quantifying the effect of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change

Julien Boulange, Naota Hanasaki, Dai Yamazaki, and Yadu Pokhrel

Flood risk was reported to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. While recent and earlier studies have derived plausible climate change impacts on global flood risk, dams have never been explicitly implemented into simulation tools. Currently, about half of major river systems worldwide are regulated by dams and more than 3,700 major dams are planned or under construction. Consequently, to realistically assess population exposure to present and future floods, current and future dam landscapes must be integrated into existing flood modeling frameworks.

In this research, the role of dams on future flood risk under climate change is quantified by simulating the global hydrological cycle, including floodplain dynamics, and considering flow regulation by dams.

 

The global population exposed to historical once-in-100-year floods in our simulation was 9.4 million people, relatively close to the estimate of 5.6 million people indicated in a previous study (Hirabayashi et al., 2013) and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database which estimated this number as 11.9 million people. Downstream of dams, the number of people exposed to the historical once-in-100-year floods were 7.2 and 13.4 million on average over 2006–2099 given a low and a medium-high greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). By the end of the 21st century, the populations exposed to flooding below dams decreased on average by 20.6% and 12. 9% for the two trajectories compared to simulations not accounting for the flow regulations produced by dams.

At the catchment scale, by considering water regulation in densely populated and heavily water regulated catchments, the occurrence of flood events largely decreases compared to projections not accounting for water regulation. Over the 2070–2099 period and for 14 catchments, the annual flooded area shrank by, on average (first and third quartiles given in bracket), 22.5% (19.8–40.5) and 25.9% (12.1–34.5) for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 respectively.

To maintain the levels of flood protection that dams have provided, new dam operations will be required to offset the effect of climate change, possibly negatively affecting energy production and water storage. In addition, precise and reliable hydro-meteorological forecasts will be invaluable for enhancing flood protection and avoid excessive outflows. Given the many negative environmental and social impacts of dams, comprehensive assessments that consider both potential benefits and adverse effects are necessary for the sustainable development of water resources.

How to cite: Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Yamazaki, D., and Pokhrel, Y.: Quantifying the effect of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10453, 2021.

EGU21-14224 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Inferring the Joint Operation of High Aswan Dam and Toshka Lakes using Multi-Sensor Satellite Approach

Hadir Abdelmoneim, Hisham Eldardiry, Ahmed Eladawy, and Hossam Moghazy

The Nile River Basin (NRB) is a typical example of a transboundary river basin that provides crucial resource for the economy and politics of eleven countries in northeastern Africa. Understanding the reservoir operation in the NRB is crucial to cope with challenges imposed by intense population growth, recurring drought, climate change and increasing competition for water. Data availability to monitor reservoir operation is predominantly an issue, particularly in transboundary basins crossing developing nations, as in the NRB. Such data challenge has been relatively overcome by remote sensing observations that are made available at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Our study implemented a Multi-Sensor Satellite (MSS) approach to understand the reservoir operation in the NRB with the focus on the joint operation of High Aswan Dam (HAD) and Toshka Lakes, located in the south western part of HAD. The MSS approach integrates a suite of satellite observations including Landsat, Sentinel-2, MODIS, satellite altimetry data, and GRACE. The MSS data, along with hydrological model outputs, are used in a water balance model to derive the operation of HAD reservoir and Toshka Lakes. Our study showed that MSS approach has a reasonable skill when modeling the Toshka inflow (i.e., HAD spillway outflow) with an average relative bias -28.5% (averaged for the period 1998-2002) and -6.9% (averaged for the two years 2001-2002). Overall, the MSS approach can potentially assist water managers and dam operators to make more informed decisions in the NRB, especially with the construction of new dams in the upstream countries (e.g., Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; GERD).

How to cite: Abdelmoneim, H., Eldardiry, H., Eladawy, A., and Moghazy, H.: Inferring the Joint Operation of High Aswan Dam and Toshka Lakes using Multi-Sensor Satellite Approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14224, 2021.

The spatial resolutions of GRACE solutions (level-2 dampened by truncation and/or filtering and level-3 called MASCON) are generally too coarse (~300km) to estimate regional changes in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) components. Focusing methods such as constrained forward approach and spatial concentration functions could improve the spatial distribution estimates of concentrated masses (e.g. glaciers, lakes). In this study, we apply spatial concentration functions to create high resolution monthly time-series of glaciers mass changes over the Gulf Of Alaska (GOA). Spatial weighting functions are based on heterogeneous glaciers mass distribution maps called a priori. First, we use three a priori of different spatial resolutions and sources to create different spatial functions. Second, we compare the amplitude of glaciers mass variations with others GRACE TWS components over the GOA, using the same spatial functions, to improve the discrimination of glaciers mass distribution. Third, we use a variety of GRACE solutions with different processing assumptions given identical resolution characteristics to estimate the uncertainties associated with our methodological framework. To analyze the accuracy of our assessments, we also compare trends resulting from the spatial concentration functions and the constrained forward approach. Then, we compare our estimates with three released MASCON solutions and published results over: (i) the GOA, (ii) the Saint-Elias Mountains and (iii) the Upper Yukon watershed. The results indicate that the spatial functions are sensitive to glaciers mass distribution. The signal from the glaciers dominate the GRACE TWS over the GOA. All solutions used, provide comparable glaciers mass variations. The two focusing methods give similar trends, but the constrained forward approach is time-consuming. The results obtained here could provide to be useful to further our understanding of the contribution of the GOA’s glaciers to sea-level rise and to river flows at the regional scale.

How to cite: Doumbia, C. and Rousseau, A. N.: High Spatial Resolution Mapping of Glaciers Mass Variations over the Gulf of Alaska Using Spatial Concentration Functions and Monthly GRACE and GRACE-FO Data , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14001, 2021.

Sea level rise (SLR) projections rely on the accurate and precise closure of Earth’s water budget. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided global-coverage observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies that improve accounting of ice and land hydrology changes and how these changes contribute to sea level rise. The contribution of land hydrology TWS changes to sea level rise is much smaller and less certain than contributions from glacial melt and thermal expansion. Although land hydrology TWS plays a smaller role, it is still important to investigate to improve the precision of the overall global water budget. This study analyzes how data assimilation techniques improve estimates of the land hydrology contribution to sea level rise. To achieve this, three global TWS datasets were analyzed: (1) GRACE TWS observations alone, (2) TWS estimates from the model-only simulation using Catchment Land Surface Model, and (3) TWS estimates from a data assimilation product of (1) and (2). We compared the data assimilation product with the GRACE observations alone and the model-only simulation to isolate the contribution to sea level rise from anthropogenic activities. We assumed a balanced water budget between land hydrology and the ocean, thus changes in global TWS are considered equal and opposite to sea level rise contribution.  Over the period of 2003-2016, we found sea level rise contributions from each dataset of +0.35 mm SLR eq/yr for GRACE, -0.34 mm SLR eq/yr for model-only, and a +0.09 mm SLR eq/yr for DA (reported as the mean linear trend). Our results indicate that the model-only simulation is not capturing important hydrologic processes. These are likely anthropogenic driven, indicating direct anthropogenic and climate-driven TWS changes play a substantial role in TWS contribution to SLR.

How to cite: Scheliga, A. and Girotto, M.: Data assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage to improve sea level rise estimates and isolate anthropogenic influences, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6380, 2021.

EGU21-738 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Terrestrial water storage under changing climate and implications on future droughts

Yadu Pokhrel and the Co-authors

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) strongly modulates the hydrological cycle, and is a key determinant of water resource availability, and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been extensively studied, the impacts of future climate change on TWS and the linkages to droughts remain unexamined. In this study, we quantify the impacts of climate change on TWS using an ensemble of hydrological simulations and examine the implications on droughts using the TWS drought severity index. Results indicate that climate change is projected to reduce TWS in two-third of global land area; TWS declines are especially severe in the southern hemisphere, leading to clear north-south contrast. Strong agreement across 27 ensemble simulations suggests high confidence in these projections. The declines in TWS translate to substantial increase in the occurrence and frequency of drought by mid- and late-21st century. By the late-21st century global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double, each increasing from 3% during 1976-2005 to 7% and 8%, respectively. Our findings underscore the need for stringent climate adaptation measures to avoid adverse effects on water resources due to declining TWS and increased droughts.

How to cite: Pokhrel, Y. and the Co-authors: Terrestrial water storage under changing climate and implications on future droughts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-738, 2021.

EGU21-16080 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Global Freshwater Fluxes into the World Oceans

Thomas Recknagel, Irina Dornblut, Hannes Müller Schmied, Petra Döll, Ulrich Looser, and Henning Plessow

The Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) deploys the data product Global Freshwater Fluxes into the World Oceans since 1996. The quantification of freshwater fluxes into the ocean is an important link to oceanography and climatology, as the salinity of sea water influences ocean currents and is a driver of evaporation and therefore interconnects to the general circulation of the atmosphere.
The first versions of the data product were based on runoff coefficient estimates for ungauged basins. Since 2004, results of the global hydrological model WaterGAP (AG Hydrologie, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt), calibrated with GRDC station data, were used to calculate the freshwater fluxes.
On the basis of the latest WaterGAP 2.2d model, we could now derive the freshwater fluxes in a refined temporal resolution and for a considerably extended time period (1901-2016).
We present a statistical analysis of monthly and annual freshwater input to the oceans within 5° and 10° latitude zones, from 5° cells along the coastlines and from the Global International Water Assessment regions (GIWA).
Beyond that, the GRDC has revised its GIS product Major River Basins of the World, which is now consistent with the WMO Regions and Subregions. The freshwater fluxes have been determined likewise for these catchments.
The provision of integrative data products is one of the objectives of the Global Terrestrial Network Hydrology (GTN-H) corresponding with the commitments of the WMO members at the eighteenth session of the World Meteorological Congress.

How to cite: Recknagel, T., Dornblut, I., Müller Schmied, H., Döll, P., Looser, U., and Plessow, H.: Global Freshwater Fluxes into the World Oceans, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16080, 2021.

EGU21-10270 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Closing the water budget at the global scale using observations, remote sensing, and reanalyses

Fanny Lehmann, Brahma Dutt Vishwakarma, and Jonathan Bamber

Despite the accuracy of GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates and the variety of global hydrological datasets providing precipitations, evapotranspiration, and runoff data, it remains challenging to find datasets satisfying the water budget equation at the global scale.

We select commonly used and widely-assessed datasets. We use several precipitations (CPC, CRU, GPCC, GPCP, GPM, MSWEP, TRMM, ERA5 Land, MERRA2), evapotranspiration (land surface models CLSM, Noah, VIC from GLDAS 2.0, 2.1, and 2.2; GLEAM, MOD16, SSEBop, ERA5 Land, MERRA2), and runoff (land surface models CLSM, Noah, VIC from GLDAS 2.0, 2.1, and 2.2; GRUN, ERA5 Land, MERRA2) datasets to assess the water storage change over more than 150 hydrological basins. Both mascons and spherical harmonics coefficients are used as the reference terrestrial water storage from different centres processing GRACE data. The analysis covers a wide range of climate zones over the globe and is conducted over 2003-2014.

The water budget closure is evaluated with Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and seasonal decomposition. Each dataset is assessed individually across all basins and dataset combinations are also ranked according to their performances. We obtain a total of 1080 combinations, among which several are suitable to close the water budget. Although none of the combinations performs consistently well over all basins, GPCP precipitations provide generally good results, together with GPCC and GPM. A better water budget closure is generally obtained when using evapotranspiration from Catchment Land Surface Models (GLDAS CLSM), while reanalyses ERA5 Land and MERRA2 are especially suitable in cold regions. Concerning runoff, the machine learning GRUN dataset performs remarkably well across climate zones, followed by ERA5 Land and MERRA2 in cold regions. We also highlight highly unrealistic values in evapotranspiration computed with version 2.2 of GLDAS (using data assimilation from GRACE) in most of the cold basins. Our results are robust as changing the GRACE product from one centre to the other does not affect our conclusions.

How to cite: Lehmann, F., Vishwakarma, B. D., and Bamber, J.: Closing the water budget at the global scale using observations, remote sensing, and reanalyses, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10270, 2021.

EGU21-15869 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Advancements in the mesoscale Hydrologic Model at the global scale

Oldrich Rakovec, Maren Kaluza, Rohini Kumar, Robert Schweppe, Pallav Shrestha, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Mueller, Sabine Attinger, and Luis Samaniego

This study synthesizes the advancements made in the setup of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM; [1,2,3]) at the global scale. Underlying vegetation and geophysical characteristics are provided at ≈200m, while the mHM simulates water fluxes and states between 10 km and 100 km spatial resolution. The meteorologic forcing data are derived from the readily available, near-real time ERA-5 dataset [4]. The total of 50 global parameters of the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) are constrained in two modes: (1) streamflow only across 3054 gauges, and (2) streamflow across 3054 gauges and simultaneously with FLUXNET ET and GRACE TWSA across 258 domains consisting of ≈10° x 10° blocks. Model performance is finally evaluated against a range of observed and reference data since 1985. 

The single best parameter set evaluated across 3054 GRDC global streamflow station yield median performance of 0.47 daily KGE (0.55 monthly KGE). This performance varies strongly between continents. For example, median daily KGE across Europe is around 0.55 (N basins=972) and across northern America around 0.5 (N basins=1264). So far, the worst model performance is observed across Africa, with median KGE of 0 (N basins=202), using the same globally constrained parameter set. The deterioration of model performance based on seamless parameterization can be explained by the quality of the underlying data, which corresponds to areas, where water balance closure error is the biggest. Additionally, missed model processes play an important role as well. Finally, there remains a large gap between the onsite calibrations and global calibrations and ongoing research is being done to narrow down these differences. This work is the fundament for building skillful global seasonal forecasting system ULYSSES [6], which provides hindcasts and operational seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables using four state of the art hydrologic/land surface models with lead time of 6 months.

  • [1] https://www.ufz.de/mhm
  • [2] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008WR007327
  • [3] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012WR012195
  • [4] https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3803
  • [5] https://www.ufz.de/ulysses

How to cite: Rakovec, O., Kaluza, M., Kumar, R., Schweppe, R., Shrestha, P., Thober, S., Mueller, S., Attinger, S., and Samaniego, L.: Advancements in the mesoscale Hydrologic Model at the global scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15869, 2021.

In this work, we suggest a new framework for estimating mean annual runoff, which is a key water balance component.  The framework consists of two steps: 1) A process-based hydrological model is used to simulate mean annual runoff on a grid covering the whole study area. 2) Since the parameters of the process-based model are calibrated globally, there are local biases in the runoff estimates relative to the observed runoff. We therefore correct the gridded simulations based on runoff data. Here, step 2 is done by using a Bayesian geostatistical model that treats the process-based simulations as a covariate. The regression coefficient of the covariate is modelled as a spatial field such that the relationship between the covariate (simulations from the process-based model) and the response variable (the observed mean annual runoff) is allowed to vary within the study area. Hence, it is a spatially varying coefficient model. A preprocessing step for including short records in the modelling is also suggested such that we can exploit as much data as possible in the correction procedure. We use state of the art statistical methods such as SPDE and INLA to ensure fast Bayesian inference.

 

The framework for estimating mean annual runoff is evaluated by predicting mean annual runoff for 1981-2010 for 127 catchments in Norway based on streamflow observations from 411 catchments. Simulations from the process-based HBV model on a 1 km x 1 km grid for the whole country are used as input. We found that on average the proposed approach outperformed a purely process-based approach (HBV) when predicting runoff for ungauged and partially gauged catchments: The reduction in RMSE compared to the HBV model was 20 % for ungauged catchments and 58 % for partially gauged catchments. For ungauged catchments the proposed framework also outperformed a purely geostatistical method with a 10 % reduction in RMSE compared to the geostatistical method. For partially gauged catchments however, purely geostatistical methods performed equally well or slightly better than the proposed two step procedure. In general, we expect the proposed approach to outperform purely geostatistical models in areas where the data availability is low to moderate.

How to cite: Roksvåg, T., Steinsland, I., and Engeland, K.: Estimating mean annual runoff by using a geostatistical spatially varying coefficient model that incorporates process-based simulations and short records, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4233, 2021.

EGU21-4341 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Sensitivity of hydrological fluxes and states to groundwater representation in continental scale simulations over Europe.

Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet

This study explores the influence of groundwater representation on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, total water storage, water table depth and groundwater recharge/discharge through the comparison of multi-model simulations using the stand-alone Community Land Model (CLM3.5) and the ParFlow hydrologic model. ParFlow simulates three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow solving Richards equation and overland flow with a two-dimensional kinematic wave approximation, whereas CLM3.5 applies a simple approach to simulate groundwater recharge and discharge processes via the connection of bottom soil layer and an unconfined aquifer. Over Europe with a lateral resolution of 3km, both models were driven with the COSMO-REA6 reanalysis dataset for the time period from 1997 to 2006 at an hourly time step using the same datasets for the static input variables (such as topography, vegetation and soil properties). Evaluation against independent observations including satellite-derived and in-situ soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total water storage datasets show that both models capture the interannual and seasonal variations well at the regional scale, however ParFlow performs better in simulating surface soil moisture in comparison with in-situ data. Moreover, juxtaposition of both models shows that simulations of water fluxes and sates in both space and time are sensitive to the differences in groundwater representation in the model. For example, simulations with ParFlow have overall wetter soil moisture than CLM, particularly in humid and cold regions and driest soil moisture in the arid and semi-arid regions. Seasonally, ParFlow simulates wetter soil moisture in winter and driest in summer than CLM model. This study helps to understand and quantify uncertainties in groundwater related processes in hydrologic simulations and resulting implications for water resources assessment at regional to continental scales.

How to cite: Naz, B. S., Sharples, W., Goergen, K., and Kollet, S.: Sensitivity of hydrological fluxes and states to groundwater representation in continental scale simulations over Europe., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4341, 2021.

The dynamics of the rainfall-runoff processes are complex and variable both spatially and temporally. There is a rich literature on physical representation of streamflow generation processes, such as saturation excess overland flow, often at small scales. Yet, continental-scale estimations of the streamflow generation processes in zones with shallow groundwater systems are still poor. This has led to inability of earth system models or large-scale hydrologic models to correctly simulate stream flows at (un)gauged basins with high potential for the presence of saturation excess overland flow. Zones with shallow groundwater have a direct impact on the hydrologic response of rainfall events. Depending on the subsurface storage, climate signals and topography, they can enhance the overland flow, or act as a buffer zone to flatten the flood hydrographs.
We have introduced new indices, inspired by the concept of hydrologic function, that include the interactions amongst climatic and geophysical characteristics (soil parameters, topography and lithology) to delineate zones of shallow groundwater over the United States and Canada. We have evaluated and tested the ability of these indices in locating high-resolution zones of shallow groundwater against in-situ observations of water table depth. The knowledge of the spatial pattern of shallow groundwater zones at (un)gauged basins allows an accurate inclusion of hydrologic connectivity in earth system models or large-scale hydrologic models, improving their prediction of stream peak flow. Furthermore, as a significant part of incoming precipitation is transformed to overland flow due to oversaturation, these datasets could be introduced as a useful indicator of areas with flood and erosion susceptibility.

How to cite: Tootchi, A. and Ameli, A.: New functional topographic, lithology and climatic indices to define shallow groundwater systems in (un)gauged basins, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13070, 2021.

EGU21-15154 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Recent improvements to the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model (version 7)

Ashkan Shokri, Ali Azarnivand, Katayoon Bahramian, Greg Keir, and Andrew Frost

The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L) model is a continental gridded, daily time-step, water balance model, developed over the last decade by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for a range of hydrological applications. The model outputs (including soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage; available through www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape) have found wide application for monitoring purposes (e.g. for flood and fire risk, drought monitoring), water reporting (eg. National Water Accounts), and in analysing trends in water balance outputs including streamflow. In addition to these historical/monitoring applications, AWRA-L is being further used for production of 10-day forecasts, seasonal forecasts, and long-term projections of hydrological outputs out to the end of the century.

 

This study details recent development of AWRA-L for improved performance across the water balance for use in monitoring through to long term projections. Changes are implemented across three broad areas: improved static and dynamic inputs, altered conceptual structure (additional urban component and baseflow ephemerality), and altered calibration approach. In particular, a new spatial calibration approach is applied across the nation using over 300 catchments. To do so model pixel output values are compared against spatially distributed satellite data for soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and two new components including fraction of vegetation (Fveg) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). In the previous versions of the model lumped catchment average values of evapotranspiration and soil moisture were used. In addition to comparing to a wide range of national datasets (streamflow observations, flux tower observations, soil moisture network observations, recharge observations), the model performance was compared for drought analysis (reproducing 2-state rainfall-runoff behaviour observed in parts of Australia) and flood analysis (correlating with operationally used flood forecasting parameters). Overall, the modified AWRA-L outperformed previous versions in terms of water balance estimation according to a wide range of validation data. The successful application of the spatial calibration method can potentially pave the path for more frequent application of complex calibration methods for large scale simulations. Furthermore, consideration of a terrestrial water storage component in the objective function highlights the importance of this factor in capturing more accurate simulation of other water balance components, particularly streamflow. The improved streamflow performance demonstrates the enhanced functionality of the model in capturing intermittency and streamflow shifts in seasonally dry and groundwater dependent catchments, further demonstrated in the drought analysis. Finally, the flood study demonstrates the application and value of the model for real time flood-monitoring and forecasting purposes. This study shows the potential of AWRA-L model and associated spatial calibration approach for accurate simulation of water balance variables for use in continental-scale studies.

How to cite: Shokri, A., Azarnivand, A., Bahramian, K., Keir, G., and Frost, A.: Recent improvements to the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model (version 7), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15154, 2021.

EGU21-13375 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Large-scale river network modeling using Graph Neural Networks

Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Christoph Klingler, Grey Nearing, and Sepp Hochreiter

In the recent past, several studies have demonstrated the ability of deep learning (DL) models, especially based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, for rainfall-runoff modeling. However, almost all of these studies were limited to (multiple) individual catchments or small river networks, consisting of only a few connected catchments. 

In this study, we investigate large-scale, spatially distributed rainfall-runoff modeling using DL models. Our setup consists of two independent model components: One model for the runoff-generation process and one for the routing. The former is an LSTM-based model that predicts the discharge contribution of each sub-catchment in a river network. The latter is a Graph Neural Network (GNN) that routes the water along the river network network in hierarchical order. The first part is set up to simulate unimpaired runoff for every sub-catchment. Then, the GNN routes the water through the river network, incorporating human influences such as river regulations through hydropower plants. The main focus is to investigate different model architectures for the GNN that are able to learn the routing task, as well as potentially accounting for human influence. We consider models based on 1D-convolution, attention modules, as well as state-aware time series models.

The decoupled approach with individual models for sub-catchment discharge prediction and routing has several benefits: a) We have an intermediate output of per-basin discharge contributions that we can inspect. b) We can leverage observed streamflow when available. That is, we can optionally substitute the discharge simulations of the first model with observed discharge, to make use of as much observed information as possible. c) We can train the model very efficiently. d) We can simulate any intermediate node in the river network, without requiring discharge observations.

For the experiments, we use a new large-sample dataset called LamaH (Large-sample Data for Hydrology in Central Europe) that covers all of Austria and the foreign upstream areas of the Danube. We consider the entire Danube catchment upstream of Bratislava, a highly diverse region, including large parts of the Alps, that covers a total area of more than 130000km2. Within that area, LamaH contains hourly and daily discharge observations for more than 600 gauge stations. Thus, we investigate DL-based routing models not only for daily discharge, but also for hourly discharge.

Our first results are promising, both daily and hourly discharge simulation. For example, the fully DL-based distributed models capture the dynamics as well as the timing of the devastating 2002 Danube flood. Building upon our work on learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors with machine learning, we try to make the GNN-based routing as universal as possible, striving towards a globally applicable, spatially distributed, fully learned hydrological model.

How to cite: Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Gauch, M., Klingler, C., Nearing, G., and Hochreiter, S.: Large-scale river network modeling using Graph Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13375, 2021.

EGU21-15253 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Data-driven and physically informed modelling of the Terrestrial Water Storage dynamics 

Karim Douch, Peyman Saemian, and Nico Sneeuw

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and its successor GRACE Follow-On, have enabled to map on a monthly basis the Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) since 2002. This unprecedented capability has provided hydrologists with new observations of the spatiotemporal evolution of TWSA, which have been used, among others, to better constrain numerical runoff models, to characterize empirically the relations between runoff and TWSA, or to simply monitor and quantify groundwater depletions. In this study, we explore the possibility to infer from GRACE observations a physically informed and linear dynamical system that models the intrinsic dynamics of TWSA at sub-basin scales.

First, we apply a hexagonal binning over the study area and aggregate the total water volume anomaly derived from GRACE data for each bin. Assuming that each bin exchanges water with the others in proportion to its water content, we then reformulate the mass balance equation of the whole basin as a first order matrix differential equation. All the proportionality coefficients encoding the bin exchanges are gathered in an unknown transition matrix to be determined.  Such a transition matrix must satisfy different algebraic properties to be physically consistent and interpretable. In particular, we show that this matrix is necessarily a left stochastic matrix. Finally, we used the time series of total water volume anomaly to estimate this transition matrix by solving an optimization problem on the manifold defined by the aforementioned matrix constraint. This method is applied to the Amazon basin and to mainland Australia respectively, and the predictive performances of the derived dynamical systems are quantified and discussed.

How to cite: Douch, K., Saemian, P., and Sneeuw, N.: Data-driven and physically informed modelling of the Terrestrial Water Storage dynamics , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15253, 2021.

EGU21-7186 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Developing an approach to calculate the WEI for the Austrian Rhine catchment

Martine Broer, Arnulf Schönbauer, Helga Lindinger, Heike Brielmann, and Roman Neunteufel

Even though Austria is a water rich country, which uses approximately 3% of its water resources, regional and seasonal challenges to ensure the water supply might occur. To facilitate a long-term, sustainable strategy for water use, detailed information on available water resources and water demand as well as possible changes due to climate change are necessary. In the “Wasserschatz” project the current available groundwater resource and the water use for the following sectors: agriculture, public water supply, industry and selected services (technical snowing and golf courses) were elaborated.

For the Austrian part of the Rhine catchment, the Water Exploitation Index was calculated for the year 2016. Where applicable the abstraction data obtained in the “Wasserschatz” project were directly used in the WEI equation. The data for the WEI equation was obtained from very different data sources (measured data, estimated data, extrapolated data) a differentiated approach was needed for each type of data and for each sector.

A very important part of the WEI are the returns, for which a different method for each sector were developed (agriculture, public water supply, selected services, industry and energy). For agriculture it was assumed that water applied as irrigation was completely transpired into the atmosphere. For cattle, the abstraction data were calculated from the amount cattle, returns were estimated according to the milk production. The abstractions for the drinking water supply were obtained from a model developed by the Institute of Sanitary Engineering and Water Pollution Control at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (Vienna), the returns are assumed to be a fixed factor from the abstractions.  For the Industry abstraction data were obtained from the water register(official notices) and from questionnaires (real abstraction data). The responses from the questionnaires were categorized according to company size and NACE codes and the data was extrapolated to other companies. For the returns either data from the water register was used or factors from literature were used.

To obtain the renewable resources the calculated outflow of the Rhine catchment was used. The water use in the WEI is described as the abstractions – returns, where all the water that stays in the catchment is considered a return. For a water rich catchment as the Rhine, the WEI is expected to be very low. In a future step the WEI index for the Austrian part of the Danube will also be calculated. Another planned improvement is to disaggregate the available data and calculate a seasonal WEI+.

How to cite: Broer, M., Schönbauer, A., Lindinger, H., Brielmann, H., and Neunteufel, R.: Developing an approach to calculate the WEI for the Austrian Rhine catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7186, 2021.

EGU21-6753 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Implementation of flood diversion canals and retention ponds to the H08 global hydrological model for flood management

Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan and Naota Hanasaki

Flood diversion canals play a crucial role in assuaging the flood risk by diverting water from the main channel to the nearby rivers, downstream of the same river, or the ocean. For the impact assessment of such canal systems on river discharge worldwide, their explicit inclusion into the global hydrological models (GHMs) is necessary. Despite this fact, such representation is limited due to their complex operations and lack of data. Therefore, we aim to propose a generalized scheme for the flood water diversion in the H08 GHM that ideally requires the universal parameters only. In this scheme, if the discharge exceeds the channel capacity, an amount equivalent to canal capacity is diverted to the canal, which will then flow to the retention ponds, and finally to the destination once the retention ponds get full. A regionalized scheme with site-specific parameters was also considered to evaluate the validity of the simulations.

The proposed scheme was tested in the upper Chao Phraya River basin, which is characterized by four tributaries of Ping, Wang, Yom, and Nan. The government has implemented Yom-Nan canal system to divert water from Yom to Nan River since 2014 to alleviate flooding in the lower Yom basin. The effect of this canal system was analyzed from 1980-2004 using the H08 model with the generalized scheme as well as the regionalized scheme. The simulations showed that the total flood water diverted from the Yom River was around 1.00 km3/year and 1.64 km3/year under the generalized and regionalized schemes, respectively, over the 25 years. This constitutes about 2.62% and 4.29% of the river discharge in the Yom River at the diversion point. In both simulations, nearly 30% of the water has been diverted to the Nan River and the remaining 70% was stored in the retention ponds. To assess the validity of the simulations, we compared the simulation results of the wet water-year 1994 with the observed canal operation data of the wet water-year 2017. The total flood water diverted was around 0.47 km3/year during the year 2017, whereas the same for 1994 was about 0.17 km3/year and 0.48 km3/year under the generalized and regionalized schemes, respectively. This shows that the regionalized simulations are close to the observations, while the generalized simulations reproduced nearly half of the diverted canal flow. The generalized simulations can be further improved by parameterizations.

How to cite: Padiyedath Gopalan, S. and Hanasaki, N.: Implementation of flood diversion canals and retention ponds to the H08 global hydrological model for flood management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6753, 2021.

EGU21-13471 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Simulating and visualising the continental water cycle with CWatM, the open-source Community Water Model

Mikhail Smilovic, Luca Guillaumot, Jens de Bruijn, and Peter Burek

The process-based hydrological model Community Water Model (CWatM) is presented simulating the water cycle from regional to global and with different resolutions. Human influences within the water cycle have been further integrated and recent developments to improve the representation of water management and distribution, reservoirs, crops, and groundwater processes are demonstrated. “Water circles" are introduced along with a dashboard to visualise the components of the water cycle and evaluate water availability in the context of water demands. The dashboard along with a set of tutorials and testing suite continue to support the accessibility of model adoption and open-source code development.

How to cite: Smilovic, M., Guillaumot, L., de Bruijn, J., and Burek, P.: Simulating and visualising the continental water cycle with CWatM, the open-source Community Water Model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13471, 2021.

EGU21-4351 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Integrated modeling of water and heat fluxes in the Seine hydrosystem, France

Deniz Kilic, Agnès Rivière, Nicolas Flipo, Agnès Ducharne, Philippe Peylin, and Patrick Goblet

Given the current climate and anthropogenic evolution, water management becomes one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Number of studies have analyzed observed hydrologic trends and their connections with the changing climate. Impacts include changes in runoff, river discharge and groundwater recharge. Water quality is also impacted, through its many facets including the water temperature. Despite the important progress made in climate modelling, the impact of the predicted global warming on hydrological processes remains uncertain; particularly, in large hydrosystems. The Seine River basin has a surface of 78,650 km², it includes the Seine River and its 50 tributaries, it is populated by 30% of France inhabitants. The Seine River basin crosses 14 departments and 4 regions, including the Paris metropolitan area. Climate change poses a vulnerability due to its potential political, social, and economic consequences in the Seine basin. The agricultural activities and number industries depend on water resources or are located on the river sides. Our ability to adapt water resource management strategies to the climate change depends on our ability to understand and estimate the actual evolution of water resource. 

The terrestrial water budget is now considered as a single continuum. This integrated conceptualisation needs to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of water exchanges between the surface and groundwater. Here we propose to improve the representation of the surface water budget with the goal to decrease the uncertainty of the whole water budget of the Seine hydrosystem. We used the process-based physical land surface model ORCHIDEE (tag 2.2) to estimate surface water budget and heat balance for the period 1980-2018. This application takes advantage of high resolution land-use and albedo maps from ESA-CCI database, and various soil map databases. The model was satisfactorily able to reproduce the discharges of each sub-catchment, the actual evapotranspiration fluxes and LAI. With these results, we are able to estimate the the partitioning of the surface water balance of each catchment of the Seine basin. These results have wide ranging implications such as the estimation of energy balance in the basin, the estimation of spatialisation of the aquifer recharge, and the feedback between aquifers and the surface.

How to cite: Kilic, D., Rivière, A., Flipo, N., Ducharne, A., Peylin, P., and Goblet, P.: Integrated modeling of water and heat fluxes in the Seine hydrosystem, France, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4351, 2021.

Changes in the cryosphere caused by global warming are expected to alter the hydrologic system, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to humans and ecosystems. Quantitative understandings of the historical hydrologic changes in response to permafrost degradation is essential for projecting future changes with respect to the continuing and possibly intensifying warming. Here we investigate past hydro-climatic changes over three southern Siberian basins with diverse permafrost properties: in the Selenga catchment, all three permafrost types occur, i.e., discontinuous, sporadic and isolated permafrost; the Lena Basin (at gauge Tabaga) is mostly underlain by discontinuous permafrost, while the Aldan is dominated by continuous permafrost.

Based on the reconstruction of terrestrial water storage changes (TWS) from the GRACE satellite mission and hydro-climatic time series over the period 1984-2013, our results show very different change patterns in the TWS among these three basins. There is an unprecedented reduction of TWS (-9.8 km3) in the Selenga basin, but remarkable increases (14.4 km3 and 13.1 km3) in the Lena-Tabaga and Aldan basins, respectively. The diverse changes in TWS, runoff and precipitation over each basin suggest different hydrologic response mechanisms to permafrost degradation under a warming climate. The Selenga, dominated by lateral degradation (i.e., decreasing permafrost extent), suffers severe water loss via deep infiltration of water that was previously stored close to the surface, which induces a drier surface and subsurface drainage system. In contrast, in the Aldan basin, determined by vertical degradation, thicker active layers develop which sustain a water-rich surface and subsurface environment. In the Lena-Tabaga basin finally, which is characterized by both lateral and vertical degradations, the further development of lateral degradation has led to a stronger increase in groundwater storage in comparison to surface runoff during the increased precipitation states, suggesting a potentially groundwater-dominated hydrologic system in this basin. Our findings are of great importance for the regional water management in permafrost-affected regions under ongoing warming.

How to cite: Han, L. and Menzel, L.: Terrestrial hydroclimatic variability in basins of Southern Siberia driven by different states of permafrost degradation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4682, 2021.

EGU21-5014 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

An Uncertainty Estimation Framework to Quantify the Water Balance of Ethiopian Rift Valley Lake basin

Tesfalem Abraham, Yan Liu, Sirak Tekleab, and Andreas Hartmann

In Ethiopia, more than 80% of big freshwater lakes are located in the Rift Valley Lake Basin, which is serving for multipurpose water use of over 30 million people. The basin is one of the most densely populated regions in Ethiopia and it covers an area of 53,035 km2. However, most of the catchments recharging these lakes are ungauged and their water balance is not well quantified, and hence, limiting the development of appropriate water resource management strategies. Prediction for ungauged catchments has demonstrated its effectiveness in hydro-climatic data-rich regions. However, these approaches are not well evaluated in the climatic data-limited condition and the consecutive uncertainty emerging in the small catchments is not adequately quantified. In this study, we use the HBV model to simulate streamflow using global precipitation and potential evapotranspiration products as forcings. We develop and apply a Monte-Carlo scheme to calibrate the model and quantify uncertainty at 16 catchments in the basin where gauging stations are available. Out of these, we use 14 best catchments to derive the best regional regression model by correlating the best calibration parameters, the best validation parameters, and parameters that give the most stable predictions with catchment attributes that are available throughout the basin. A weighting scheme in the regional regression accounts for parameter uncertainty in the calibration. A spatial cross-valuation that is applied 14 times always leaving out one of the gauged catchments provides 14 regional regression functions that express uncertainty regionalization. It also shows that the regionalization procedure that uses the best validation parameters for regionalization provides the most robust results. We then subsequently apply the 14 spatial regression functions of the cross-validation to the remaining 35 ungauged catchments in the Rift Valley Lake Basin to provide regional water balance estimations including quantification of regionalization uncertainty. With these results, our study provides a new procedure to use global precipitation and evapotranspiration products to predict and evaluate streamflow simulation for hydro-climatically data scares regions considering uncertainty. It, therefore, enhances the confidence in the understanding of water balance in those regions and will support the planning and development of appropriate water resource management strategies.

 

Keywords: Parameters Estimation, Uncertainties, Ungauged Catchment, Weighted Regression, Water Balance

How to cite: Abraham, T., Liu, Y., Tekleab, S., and Hartmann, A.: An Uncertainty Estimation Framework to Quantify the Water Balance of Ethiopian Rift Valley Lake basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5014, 2021.

EGU21-7900 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.2

Diagnostic evaluation of runoff into the Arctic Ocean and its impact on freshwater transport through Arctic gateways.

Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger

Rapid surface warming in the Arctic region has strong impacts on the Arctic water balance and its individual hydrological components. With the Arctic Ocean being almost entirely surrounded by landmasses and some of the world’s largest rivers draining into it, the link between ocean and surrounding land is remarkably strong. Hence runoff forms one of the key variables in the Arctic freshwater budget and builds the main focus of this study.

Seasonal cycles, as well as annual and seasonal runoff trends are analyzed for the major Arctic watersheds. We first compare river discharge data taken from the reanalysis component from the Global Flood and Awareness System (GloFAS) to available observed river discharge records. GloFAS combines the land surface model from ECMWF’s most recent reanalysis effort ERA5 with a hydrological and channel routing model. Results show that seasonal river discharge peaks are underestimated by GloFAS as well as by direct ERA5 runoff.

Further analysis shows that this discrepancy can be tracked to non-stationary biases in the snow analysis of ERA5, which affect melt and subsequently runoff (Zsoter et al. (2020), https://doi.org/10.21957/p9jrh0xp). It is shown that this bias is substantially improved in ERA5’s downscaled counterpart ERA5-Land. An experimental version of GloFAS that uses ERA5-Land forcing, exhibits improved river discharge values.

Seasonal cycles of ERA5 snow melt show that there is a lag of 1-2 months between the peak in snow melt and observed river discharge, which can be explained by the time it takes for the water to reach the river mouth, but it may also be influenced by water resources management (e.g., Yang et al. (2004), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.017 ; Ye et al. (2003), https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR001991).

In addition, runoff is calculated over the whole pan-arctic region to account for the total freshwater entering the Arctic Ocean from land. Independent mooring-derived estimates of net freshwater flux through the Arctic oceanic gateways show a consistent and strong imprint of the runoff seasonal cycle.

How to cite: Winkelbauer, S., Mayer, M., and Haimberger, L.: Diagnostic evaluation of runoff into the Arctic Ocean and its impact on freshwater transport through Arctic gateways., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7900, 2021.

HS2.5.3 – Large-sample hydrology: characterizing and understanding hydrologic diversity and catchment organization

EGU21-1617 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3 | Highlight

Closing the climate-hydrology feedback loop: Variations in greenhouse gas fluxes resulting from changes in catchment hydrology due to human-induced climate change

Sophie Comer-Warner, Nicolai Brekenfeld, Paul Romeijn, Sami Ullah, Daren Gooddy, Nicholas Kettridge, Benjamin Marchant, David Hannah, Feng Mao, and Stefan Krause

Climate change during the Anthropocene has caused many disturbances to Earth’s system, including altering patterns of precipitation and temperature. This has led to hydrological extremes with increases in both floods and droughts globally. We know and recognise this large effect on the global water cycle, but the consequent influence on biogeochemistry and greenhouse gas production has received less attention. Changes in greenhouse gas emissions due to increases in hydrological extremes may be an unrecognised climate feedback, having large implications for future climate and in turn, catchment hydrology. Here we present a synthesis from field studies and a review of the literature to investigate the effects of hydrological extremes on greenhouse gas production and emissions. We focus on variations in greenhouse gas emissions as a result of changes in both discharge and temperature, which are affected by hydrological extremes.

How to cite: Comer-Warner, S., Brekenfeld, N., Romeijn, P., Ullah, S., Gooddy, D., Kettridge, N., Marchant, B., Hannah, D., Mao, F., and Krause, S.: Closing the climate-hydrology feedback loop: Variations in greenhouse gas fluxes resulting from changes in catchment hydrology due to human-induced climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1617, 2021.

EGU21-5863 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

A hydrogeomorphic perspective on emergent topographic properties at landscape equilibrium

David G. Litwin, Ciaran J. Harman, Gregory E. Tucker, and Katherine R. Barnhart

Geomorphic properties of watersheds influence runoff generation, which drives landscape evolution over long timescales. Despite this strong process feedback, our understanding of how runoff generation affects long-term catchment evolution remains rudimentary. In most humid landscapes, storm runoff arises from shallow subsurface flow and from precipitation on saturated areas. Catchment geomorphology drives these runoff mechanisms, as landscape relief generates hydraulic gradients from hillslopes to streams, and regolith thickness and permeability affect flow partitioning and water storage capacity. However, there are few studies of how runoff coupled to dynamic shallow groundwater affects landscape form. In this study, we present a new groundwater-landscape evolution model and introduce a nondimensional framework to explore how subsurface-mediated runoff generation affects long-term catchment evolution. The model solves hydraulic groundwater equations to predict the water table location given prescribed recharge. Water in excess of the subsurface capacity for transport becomes overland flow, which may detach and transport sediment, affecting the landscape form that in turn affects runoff generation. We show that (1) two input parameters fully describe the possible steady state landscapes that coevolve under steady recharge, (2) subsurface flow capacity exerts a fundamental control on hillslope length and relief of these landscapes, and (3) three topographic metrics derived from the governing equations, steepness index, Laplacian curvature, and topographic wetness index, form a natural basis for evaluating the resulting coevolved landscapes. We derive a theoretical relationship using these metrics that allows us to recover the key model input parameters (including subsurface transmissivity) from topographic analysis of the landscape. These results open possibilities for topographic analysis of humid upland landscapes that could inform quantitative understanding of hydrological processes at the landscape scale.

How to cite: Litwin, D. G., Harman, C. J., Tucker, G. E., and Barnhart, K. R.: A hydrogeomorphic perspective on emergent topographic properties at landscape equilibrium, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5863, 2021.

EGU21-7360 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Hydrogeological controls on stream discharge dynamics in bedrock catchments: exploring the combined effects of seepage development and heterogeneity

Nicolas Cornette, Clément Roques, Alexandre Boisson, Josette Launay, Guillaume Pajot, and Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy

Surface/subsurface interactions and geological heterogeneity have important effects on the dynamics of streamflows. Surface/subsurface interactions speed up transfers through the development of seepage zones, which reduce the response time of the aquifer and increase the proportion of rapid infiltration excess overland flow. On top of it, geological heterogeneity modulates spatially the extent of the seepage zones as well as the intensity of drainage of the underlying aquifer.

We investigated the combined effect of the surface/subsurface interactions and geological heterogeneity in a crystalline basement region under temperate climate (Brittany, France), where the limited aquifer capacities, the hydraulic conductivity enhanced by weathering and fracturing and the significant recharge rate promote surface/subsurface interactions. We analysed 40-year of discharge data monitored on two catchments (Arguenon 104 km2 and Aber Plabennec 27.4 km2) using 1D hillslope models (hs1D). The hs1D hillslope model resolves the vertically integrated Boussinesq subsurface flows with a spatially and temporally varying saturation-limited boundary condition on equivalent 1D hillslope structures. We specifically analysed the effect of accounting for heterogeneity on improving the discharge predictions, accounting for the presence of 2 equivalent hillslope with different hydraulic properties. This heterogeneity was defined based of the presence of two main geological lithologies in the catchments. Calibration was performed by a systematic parameter space exploration.

The calibrated models display significant differences between the two catchments. In the Aber Plabennec catchment, the homogeneous and heterogeneous hillslope models had very close performances showing an effective geological homogenization of the hydraulic conductivity and porosity. In the Arguenon catchment, the heterogeneous model outperformed the homogeneous model with a 46% increase of the Nash-log criterion showing persistant and significant differences in hydraulic conductivities and porosity. Successful calibration in both cases demonstrated by Nash-log values larger than 0.75-0.8 showed the overall relevance of the hillslope approach and its capacity to check for the presence of hydraulic heterogeneity at the catchment scale. Differences between catchments hints on the potential identification of hydrogeological properties at the regional scale by the combined use of the geological map and stream discharges.

How to cite: Cornette, N., Roques, C., Boisson, A., Launay, J., Pajot, G., and de Dreuzy, J.-R.: Hydrogeological controls on stream discharge dynamics in bedrock catchments: exploring the combined effects of seepage development and heterogeneity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7360, 2021.

EGU21-9468 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Location, location, location – Considering local neighborhood when analyzing large samples of UK catchments

Melike Kiraz, Thorsten Wagener, and Gemma Coxon

Studying large samples of catchments has been an effective means for comparative hydrology as it provides a wide range of hydrological conditions which can be used to learn similarities and differences between places. Such analyses typically include an attempt to organize catchments along some gradient (e.g. climate) or in clusters (e.g. geology) using catchment descriptors (e.g. an aridity index). Various past studies have pointed to the problem that available catchment descriptors are often not sufficient to capture hydrologically relevant catchment behaviours. It is further widely acknowledged that the water balance of many catchments is not closed. Several hypotheses for the causes of this lack of closed water balance are stated in literature.

If we assume that the dominant control on water balance is climate, then catchments’ water balances should change smoothly in space (since the climate varies smoothly). If they do not, then something else must be controlling this behaviour. We expect that size, location and geology might play important role in the water balances of UK catchments. We aim to study the differences in water balance between catchments to understand the role of catchment location. We test different hypotheses while considering the local neighborhood of 669 UK catchments from the CAMELS-GB dataset.

How to cite: Kiraz, M., Wagener, T., and Coxon, G.: Location, location, location – Considering local neighborhood when analyzing large samples of UK catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9468, 2021.

Expanding the scientific understanding of global hydrological processes is a key research area for hydrologists. Research in this area can allow hydrologists to make better predictions in ungauged basins and catchments under climate change scenarios. Though hydrological processes are largely understood at a laboratory-scale, catchment-scale processes are much more complex and unknown. Previous studies at the catchment-scale have shown catchment geology is largely irrelevant in determining components of streamflow. Laboratory-scale experiments, however, have revealed that this is unlikely. This contradiction indicates the current techniques for determining hydrological variable importance in the literature are insufficient. In this paper, we quantify the influence of the interaction amongst climatic, geological, and topographical features on a large set of hydrological signatures in snow-dominated regions across North America, using Stable Extrapolative Marginal Contribution Feature Importance. The preliminary results show that when we consider interaction effects among climatic and geophysical features, and remove the influence of correlation, geological features show considerable importance at the catchment scale. We contend that this study contributes to the scientific understanding of catchment-scale hydrological processes, especially in cold, ungauged basins.

How to cite: Janssen, J. and Ameli, A.: The importance of geology when estimating catchment-scale streamflow characteristics: Application of a new technique for hydrologic similarity and regionalization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13979, 2021.

In the mountainous basins with less anthropogenic influence, the hydrological function is mainly affected by climate and landscape, which makes it possible to measure hydrological similarity indirectly by geographical features. Due to the mechanisms of runoff generation can vary geographically, in this study, a simple stepwise clustering scheme was proposed to explore the role of geographical features at different spatial hierarchy in indicating hydrological response. Research methods mainly include (1) Stepwise regression was used to quantitatively show the correlation between 35 geographical features and 35 flow features and identify the important explanatory variables for hydrological response; (2) 64 basins were divided by stepwise clustering scheme, and the overall ability of the scheme to capture hydrological similarity was tested by comparing the optimal parameters; (3) The hydrological similarity of basin groups was measured by the leave-one cross validation of hydrological model parameters. The results showed that: (1) Rainfall features, elevation, slope and soil bulk density are the main explanatory variables. (2) The NSE of basin groups based on stepwise clustering is 0.64, reaches 80% of the optimal parameter sets (NSE=0.80). The NSE of 90% basins is greater than 0.5, 80% is greater than 0.6, and 49% is greater than 0.7. (3) In humid areas, the hydrological responses of the basins with more uniform monthly rainfall and more abundant summer rainfall are more similar, e.g., the NSE of Class 4 is 0.77. Under similar rainfall patterns, the hydrological responses of the basins with higher average altitude, greater slope, more convergent of shape and richer vegetation are more similar, e.g., the NSE of Class 3-2 is 0.72 and that of Class 1-2 is 0.70. In the case of similar rainfall patterns and landforms, the hydrological responses of the basins with smaller soil bulk density are more similar, e.g., the NSE of Class 3-2-2 is 0.80. In conclusion, the stepwise clustering enhances the interpretability of basin classification, and the effect of different geographical features on hydrological response can show the applicability of hydrological simulation in ungauged basins.

How to cite: Yang, Y. and Liu, J.: Understanding the role of different geographical features in the hydrological response of humid mountainous areas through a stepwise clustering scheme, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3830, 2021.

In order to conduct an appropriate management in each catchment, it is important to understand how the difference in geological conditions affect the relationship between precipitation and flow regimes.

Considering the differences in geological characteristics of catchments, this study aims 1)to clarify the period for calculating the total precipitation that is most influential to several levels of daily flow respectively and 2)to clarify the contribution of the change in the total precipitation of ‘the most influential period’ to the change in flow.

In this study, 63 mountainous catchments (dam catchments) within the Japanese Archipelago were selected as target areas. First, the 63 catchments were divided into 4 groups according to their geological characteristics. Second, from the observed data of daily flow lasting 26 years (from 1993 to 2018), 6 types of daily flow which represent flow of different scales within a year (1, 10, 25, 50, 75, 95 percentiles of daily flow within a year) were searched. In each geological classification, correlation coefficients between each 6 type of flow and total precipitation of various periods (from 2 days to 365 days) were calculated. Finally, for each geological classification and each type of flow, single regression analyses were conducted, setting the rate of change in flow amount as the objective variable, and the rate of change in total precipitation amount of the appropriate period as the explanatory variable.

As a result, in the analysis of correlation coefficients, significant differences among different geological classifications were seen for lower type of flows but not for higher type of flows. For catchments of volcanic rocks in the Quaternary period, total precipitation of 365 days before the flow occurrence had the highest correlation coefficient with lower type of flows. On the other hand, for catchments of sedimentary rocks in the Mesozoic or Paleozoic era, the most influential period was approximately 45 days, which was the shortest.

Also, increasing trends in flow (i.e. the rate of change in flow > 1.0) during the target period were seen regardless of the geological classification or the type of flow. However, from the simple regression analysis, the significant effect of the change in precipitation to the change in flow was only seen for annual maximum flow of catchments of sedimentary rocks from the Mesozoic or Paleozoic era. Except this specific geological characteristic and flow type, there is a possibility that other conditions of the catchments (e.g. change in land use) have larger effect to the change in flow compared to the change in precipitation.

In the analyses mentioned above, the effect of snowfall is not considered. Therefore, in the presentation, the difference between snow covered regions and others are compared in addition.

How to cite: Muto, Y., Chibana, T., and Yamada, M.: The Effect of Total Precipitation of Various Periods to Flow Regimes in Mountainous Catchments in Japan : Considering the Geological Characteristics of Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14051, 2021.

Forested watersheds across the western US have experienced recent widespread disturbance and tree mortality due to a combination of heat, drought, and epidemic insect and disease outbreaks. Hydrologic response has included both increases and decreases in the fraction of annual precipitation that is partitioned to streamflow versus evapotranspiration (ET). We used a large-sample hydrology approach to address two questions: First, how have water budget components changed during this period of high forest disturbance, and second, does streamflow response vary with disturbance severity, incoming solar radiation, and/or aridity? From previous studies, streamflow and runoff ratio are expected to increase with forest disturbance due to reduced ET, and conversely increases in forest density are expected to reduce streamflow. We statistically evaluated whether these expectations were met, and where and why contradictory responses occurred, using trend and regression analysis. We constructed annual water budgets for 211 watersheds in the western US from daily observations in the CAMELS dataset, which includes streamflow and climate data as well as watershed characteristics such as mean incoming solar radiation and aridity (i.e., ratio of mean annual potential ET to mean annual precipitation, or PET/P). Forest disturbance was quantified as percentage change in live tree volume and mean annual rate of tree mortality, using data collected by the US Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis program. While most water budget components and forcing variables did not exhibit consistent trends, many watersheds experienced significant increases in temperature and PET. Unexpected trends in runoff ratio occurred in two scenarios: First, runoff ratio decreased following forest disturbance in many water-limited watersheds (i.e., PET/P>1) of the southwestern US; and second, both runoff ratios and forest densities increased in some energy-limited watersheds of the Pacific Northwest. Water-limited watersheds and those with high solar radiation experienced more forest disturbance than energy-limited watersheds. We used hydrologic time trend analysis to quantify the magnitude of streamflow change. A linear regression model including precipitation and temperature as inputs was calibrated and validated using the pre-disturbance time period (1980-2006, odd years and even years, respectively; r2val=0.954), and then applied to the post-disturbance time period (2007-2019), where model residuals are assumed to represent change in streamflow due to factors not included in the model, i.e., forest change. Among the 65 watersheds with significant streamflow change, the magnitude of change was moderately correlated with both disturbance severity and solar radiation. Decreased post-disturbance streamflow occurred mainly in watersheds with low to moderate tree mortality and high incoming solar radiation. We used multiple linear regression to identify important predictors of streamflow change. Pre-disturbance streamflow, change in precipitation and PET, solar radiation, and the interaction of solar radiation and tree mortality were all highly significant predictors (p

How to cite: Goeking, S. A. and Tarboton, D. G.: Assessing annual streamflow response to forest disturbance in the western US: A large-sample hydrology approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8070, 2021.

EGU21-2282 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Influence of tree cover and urban area on streamflow in the United States using multiple statistical attribution techniques

Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Simon Dadson, and Annalise Blum

There is still limited quantitative understanding of the effects of tree cover and urbanisation on streamflow at large scales, making it difficult to generalize these relationships. We use the globally consistent European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Global Land Cover dataset to estimate the relationships between streamflow, calculated as high (Q0.99), median (Q0.50), and low (Q0.01) flow quantiles, and urbanization or tree cover changes in 2865 catchments between the years 1992 through 2018. We apply three statistical modelling approaches and examine the consistencies and inconsistencies between them. First, we use distributional regression models -- generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) -- at each site and assess goodness-of-fit. Model fits suggested a strong association between land cover, especially urban area, and low and median flows at sites with statistically significant trends in streamflow. We then examine the sign of the distributional regression model coefficients to determine whether the inclusion of a land cover variable in the regression models results in a relative increase or decrease in flow, regardless of the overall direction of trends in streamflow. Finally, we use fixed effects panel regression models to estimate the average effect across all sites. Panel regression results suggested that a 1% increase in urban area corresponds to between a < 1% and 2.1% increase in streamflow for all quantiles. Results for the tree cover panel regression models were not significant. We highlight the value of statistical approaches for large-sample attribution of hydrological change, while cautioning that considerable variability exists across catchments and modelling approaches.

How to cite: Anderson, B., Slater, L., Dadson, S., and Blum, A.: Influence of tree cover and urban area on streamflow in the United States using multiple statistical attribution techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2282, 2021.

EGU21-10152 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Exploring the potential of transfer entropy for identifying similarity of catchment dynamics

Mattia Neri, Paulin Coulibaly, and Elena Toth

Catchment classification is one of the essential steps for transferring information between similar watersheds, through the identification of the dominant hydrological processes and their main characteristics. The delineation of similar groups of basins is required for several regionalisation applications and how to assess the hydrological similarity generally depends on the specific purpose of the study and on the features to be regionalised. In some analyses, such as for example the regionalisation of rainfall-runoff models, the similarity should reflect the interaction between meteorological forcings and river streamflow time series, in particular at fine temporal scale, in order to reproduce the catchment behaviour in the rainfall-runoff transformation processes. Previous hydrological research has identified basins with similar meteorological forcings (i.e. similarity of climate) or with similar streamflow time-series (i.e. similarity of runoff response), but no studies have so far considered the interaction between the entire time-series of forcing data (e.g. precipitation) and streamflow, quantifying it through measures to be used as similarity metrics.

One of the approaches that may be applied for this purpose is the use of the concepts belonging to information theory, that are based on the notion of entropy, i.e. the content of information of a signal (as a time-series), or, in the multivariate case, the content of information shared between more variables. The present study proposes the use of a multi-variate entropy-based measure, the so-called transfer entropy, a time-asymmetric quantity which analyses the interaction between different signals.

In this study, the concept of transfer entropy is applied for identifying the dominant hydrological processes occurring in a catchment, measuring the transfer of information from different meteorological forcings over the catchment (such as rainfall, snowmelt and evapotranspiration) to the corresponding streamflow time-series at the basin outlet. The resulting similarity measure is then used for grouping catchments with similar dynamics.

In a first step, the different amounts of information transferred from the meteorological forcing variables to observed runoff are estimated through the computation of the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy values are then used as signatures to characterise catchment dynamics, and a classification of the basins inside a study region is obtained assuming that similar values of transfer entropy for the considered forcing variables identify similar basins.

The methodology is tested for two study regions: the first is Austria, where a very densely-gauged set of catchments is available; the second is the conterminous US (CAMELS dataset), characterised by sparser gauging stations and a much higher hydroclimatic variability.

The outcomes of the approach are evaluated against a set of “traditional” catchment signatures, demonstrating the potential of transfer entropy as an additional promising instrument for assessing hydrological similarity and for quantifying the connection between different governing processes.

How to cite: Neri, M., Coulibaly, P., and Toth, E.: Exploring the potential of transfer entropy for identifying similarity of catchment dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10152, 2021.

EGU21-10466 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Impact of the number of donor catchments and the efficiency threshold on regionalization performance of hydrological models

Wen-yan Qi, Chen Jie, Lu Li, Chong-Yu Xu, Yi-heng Xiang, Shao-bo Zhang, and Hui-Min Wang

EGU21-4871 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Why is large sample hydrology important in hydrological forecasting? 

Ilias Pechlivanidis, Louise Crochemore, and Marc Girons Lopez

The scientific community has made significant progress towards improving the skill of hydrological forecasts; however, most investigations have normally been conducted at single or in a limited number of catchments. Such an approach is indeed valuable for detailed process investigation and therefore to understand the local conditions that affect forecast skill, but it is limited when it comes to scaling up the underlying hydrometeorological hypotheses. To advance knowledge on the drivers that control the quality and skill of hydrological forecasts, much can be gained by comparative analyses and from the availability of statistically significant samples. Large-scale modelling (at national, continental or global scales) can complement the in-depth knowledge from single catchment modelling by encompassing many river systems that represent a breadth of physiographic and climatic conditions. In addition to large sample sizes which cover a gradient in terms of climatology, scale and hydrological regime, the use of machine learning techniques can contribute to the identification of emerging spatiotemporal patterns leading to forecast skill attribution to different regional physiographic characteristics.

Here, we draw on two seasonal hydrological forecast skill investigations that were conducted at the national and continental scales, providing results for more than 36,000 basins in Sweden and Europe. Due to the large generated samples, we are capable of demonstrating that the quality of seasonal streamflow forecasts can be clustered and regionalized, based on a priori knowledge of the local hydroclimatic conditions. We show that the quality of seasonal streamflow forecasts is linked to physiographic and hydroclimatic descriptors, and that the relative importance of these descriptors varies with initialization month and lead time. In our samples, hydrological similarity, temperature, precipitation, evaporative index, and precipitation forecast biases are strongly linked to the quality of streamflow forecasts. This way, while seasonal river flow can generally be well predicted in river systems with slow hydrological responses, predictability tends to be poor in cold and semiarid climates in which river systems respond immediately to precipitation signals.

How to cite: Pechlivanidis, I., Crochemore, L., and Girons Lopez, M.: Why is large sample hydrology important in hydrological forecasting? , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4871, 2021.

EGU21-1045 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Flood simulation errors show an unexpected seasonal trend: results obtained on a set of 229 catchments and 11,054 flood events

Paul C. Astagneau, François Bourgin, Vazken Andréassian, and Charles Perrin

To improve the predictive capability of a model, one must identify situations where it fails to provide satisfactory results. We tried to identify the deficiencies of a lumped rainfall-runoff model used for flood simulation (the hourly GR5H-I model) by evaluating it over a large set of 229 French catchments and 11,054 flood events. Evaluating model simulations separately for individual flood events allowed us identifying a seasonal trend: while the model yielded good performance in terms of aggregated statistics, grouping results by season showed clear underestimations of most of the floods occurring in summer. The largest underestimations of flood volumes were identified when high-intensity precipitation events occurred and when the precipitation field was highly spatially variable. Low antecedent soil moisture conditions were also found to be strongly correlated with model bias. Overall, this study pinpoints the need to better account for short-duration processes to improve the GR5H-I model for flood simulation.

How to cite: Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Flood simulation errors show an unexpected seasonal trend: results obtained on a set of 229 catchments and 11,054 flood events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1045, 2021.

EGU21-10680 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Large-sample based evaluation of the spatial resolution discretization of the wflow_sbm model for the CAMELS dataset

Jerom Aerts, Albrecht Weerts, Willem van Verseveld, Pieter Hazenberg, Niels Drost, Rolf Hut, and Nick van de Giesen

In this study, we investigate the effect of spatial resolution discretization at 3km, 1km, and 200m by evaluating the streamflow estimation of the model. A hypothesis driven approach is used to investigate why changes in states and fluxes are taking place at different spatial resolutions and how they relate to model performance. These changes are evaluated in the context of landscape and climate characteristics as well as hydrological signatures. Answering the research question: can landscape, climate and hydrological characteristics dictate appropriate spatial modelling resolution a priori?

We use a spatially distributed wflow_sbm model (Imhoff et al., 2020, code: https://zenodo.org/record/4291730) together with the CAMELS dataset (Addor et al., 2017), covering the Continental United States. The wflow_sbm model is chosen due to flexibility in the spatial resolution of the watershed discretization while maintaining run time performance suitable for large-sample studies. The flexibility in spatial resolution is achieved by the use of point-scale (pedo)transfer functions (PTFs) with upscaling rules to global datasets to ensure flux matching across scales (Imhoff et al., 2020; Samaniego et al., 2010, 2017). The model relies on open datasets for parameter estimation and requires minimal calibration efforts as it is most sensitive to two model parameters, rooting depth and horizontal conductivity .

This study is carried out within the eWaterCycle framework; allowing for a FAIR by design research setup that is scalable in terms of case study areas and hydrological models.

How to cite: Aerts, J., Weerts, A., van Verseveld, W., Hazenberg, P., Drost, N., Hut, R., and van de Giesen, N.: Large-sample based evaluation of the spatial resolution discretization of the wflow_sbm model for the CAMELS dataset, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10680, 2021.

EGU21-13250 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Understanding soil moisture dynamics through cosmic rays: a global analysis

Daniel Power, Rafael Rosolem, Miguel Rico-Ramirez, Darin Desilets, and Sharon Desilets

Despite its importance in many hydrological and environmental applications, direct estimates of soil moisture at the field-scale is still challenging. The spatial gap between point scale sensors and satellite derived products is becoming increasingly important to consider in the push for hyper-resolution (sub)kilometre-hydrometeorological models. Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS) can help to bridge this spatial gap. CRNS provide estimates of field-scale (sub-kilometre) root-zone integrated soil moisture typically at hourly intervals. They achieve this by counting fast neutrons which are produced in the atmosphere from incoming cosmic rays. Fast neutrons are mitigated primarily by hydrogen atoms, and it is this relationship that allows us to estimate field averaged soil moisture. National networks of CRNS are available in the USA, Australia, the UK, and Germany, along with individual sites across the globe. As these networks have expanded, so has our knowledge on best practices for calibration and correction of the sensor measurements. However, there continues to be a divergence and lack of harmonization in some processing data methods leading to an additional uncertainty when comparing sensors in different networks. This can undermine efforts to employ large-sample hydrological analysis of CRNS across a wide range of climate and biomes. To provide an easily accessible platform for multi-site comparison worldwide, we developed the Cosmic Ray Sensor Python tool (crspy). Crspy is an open-source Python package which is designed to process CRNS data from global networks in a uniform and harmonized way (https://www.github.com/danpower101/crspy). Additionally, crspy has been developed for multi-site ‘big-data’ analysis in hydrology. Our crspy tool produces detailed information in the form of metadata for each site, using both site specific data as well as global data products to give information on soil properties (SoilGridsv2), land cover/aboveground biomass (ESA CCI) and climate data (ERA5-land). Our preliminary analysis and tool development was carried out using data from more than 100 sites globally from the public domain. We will present an analysis of this large sample of data, utilising the harmonized soil moisture readings along with detailed metadata for each site. We aim to increase our understanding of the dominant mechanisms controlling soil moisture dynamics which will undoubtedly be useful in multiple areas of research such as catchment classification, agriculture and irrigation, and hydrological model development.

How to cite: Power, D., Rosolem, R., Rico-Ramirez, M., Desilets, D., and Desilets, S.: Understanding soil moisture dynamics through cosmic rays: a global analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13250, 2021.

EGU21-15387 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

Evaluation of high-resolution meteorological global data products using flux tower observations across Brazil

Jamie Brown, Rafael Rosolem, Ross Woods, Humberto Rocha, and Debora Roberti

In the past decade, the scientific community has seen an increase in the number of global hydrometeorological products. This has been possible with efforts to push global hydrological and land surface modelling to hyper-resolution applications. As the resolution of these datasets increase, so does the need to compare their estimates against local in-situ measurements. This is particularly important for Brazil, whose large continental scale domain results in a wide range of climate and biomes. In this study, high-resolution (0.1-0.25 deg) global and regional meteorological datasets are compared against flux tower observations at 11 sites across Brazil (for periods between 1999-2010), covering Brazil’s main land cover types (tropical rainforest, woodland savanna, various croplands, and tropical dry forests) to assess the quality of four global reanalysis products [ERA5-Land, GLDAS2.0, GLDAS2.1, and MSWEPv2.2] and one regional gridded dataset developed from local interpolation of meteorological variables across the country [Brazilian National  Meteorological Database (referred here as Xavier)]. Whilst the only measured variable for MSWEP was precipitation, all other gridded datasets also included surface meteorological variables such as air temperature, wind speed, pressure, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and specific humidity. Data products were evaluated for their ability to reproduce the daily and monthly meteorological observations at flux towers. A ranking system for data products was developed based on the mean squared error. To identify the possible causes for these errors further analysis was undertaken to determine the contributions of correlation, bias, and variation to the MSE. Results show that, for precipitation, MSWEP outperforms the other datasets at daily scales but at a monthly scale XAVIER performs best. For all other variables, ERA5-Land achieved the best ranking (smallest) errors at the daily scale and averaged the best rank for all variables at the monthly scale. GLDAS2.0 performed least well at both temporal scales, however the newer version (GLDAS2.1) was an improvement of its older version for almost every variable. Xavier wind speed and GLDAS2.0 solar radiation outperformed the other datasets at a monthly scale. The largest contribution to the MSE at the daily scale for all datasets and variables was the correlation contribution whilst at the monthly scale it was the bias contribution. ERA5-Land is recommended when using multiple hydro-meteorological variables to force land-surface models within Brazil.

How to cite: Brown, J., Rosolem, R., Woods, R., Rocha, H., and Roberti, D.: Evaluation of high-resolution meteorological global data products using flux tower observations across Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15387, 2021.

EGU21-10428 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

CAMELS-AUS: Hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 222 catchments in Australia

Keirnan Fowler, Suwash Chandra Acharya, Nans Addor, Chihchung Chou, and Murray Peel

Large samples of catchments are becoming increasingly important to gain generalisable insights from hydrological research.  Such insights are facilitated by freely available large sample hydrology datasets, with one example being the CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) series of datasets.  Here we present CAMELS-AUS, the Australian edition of CAMELS. CAMELS-AUS comprises data for 222 unregulated catchments, combining hydrometeorological timeseries (streamflow and 18 climatic variables) with 134 attributes related to geology, soil, topography, land cover, anthropogenic influence, and hydroclimatology. The CAMELS-AUS catchments have been monitored for decades (more than 85 % have streamflow records longer than 40 years) and are relatively free of large scale changes, such as significant changes in landuse. Rating curve uncertainty estimates are provided for most (75 %) of the catchments and multiple atmospheric datasets are included, offering insights into forcing uncertainty. This dataset, the first of its kind in Australia, allows users globally to freely access catchment data drawn from Australia's unique hydroclimatology, particularly notable for its large interannual variability. Combined with arid catchment data from the CAMELS datasets for the USA and Chile, CAMELS-AUS constitutes an unprecedented resource for the study of arid-zone hydrology. CAMELS-AUS is freely downloadable from and the corresponding paper is available at https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2020-228/.

How to cite: Fowler, K., Chandra Acharya, S., Addor, N., Chou, C., and Peel, M.: CAMELS-AUS: Hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 222 catchments in Australia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10428, 2021.

EGU21-13349 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

CAMELS-FR: A large sample, hydroclimatic dataset for France, to support model testing and evaluation

Vazken Andréassian, Olivier Delaigue, Charles Perrin, Bruno Janet, and Nans Addor

Over the last decades, the development of large sample hydrology has allowed a generalization of sound model evaluation and testing practices (Andréassian et al., 2006; Gupta et al. 2014), based on various types of split-sample tests. This presentation aims at illustrating some of these tests, while introducing at the same time a French dataset that we have been working with for many years. This dataset has been assembled at INRAE (HYCAR research unit), based on an automatized assembling of national data products (Delaigue et al. 2020). CAMELS-FR will provide daily hydro-meteorological time series (streamflow, solid and liquid precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, temperature, etc.) covering the 1958-2020 period. Catchment characteristics such as land cover, topography (i.e. elevation and slope distributions, drainage density, topographic index, etc.) will be provided, with information about possible regulations upstream, and with some a priori information on data quality. Graphical summary sheets for each catchment are already available.

This approach is part of the CAMELS international initiative (Addor et al., 2017), whose purpose is to facilitate reproducible hydrological research by the use of large sample catchment datasets, and the CAMELS-FR dataset will be made available to scientific users in partnership with data owners.

References

Addor, N., Newman, A. J., Mizukami, N., Clark, M. P. (2017). The CAMELS data set: catchment attributes and meteorology for large-sample studies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5293–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5293-2017

Andréassian, V., Hall, A., Chahinian, N., Schaake, J. (2006). Introduction and Synthesis: Why should hydrologists work on a large number of basin data sets? IAHS Publication, 307, 1-5, https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02588687.

Delaigue, O., Génot, B., Lebecherel, L., Brigode, P., Bourgin, P.Y. (2020). Database of watershed-scale hydroclimatic observations in France. Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, HYCAR Research Unit, Hydrology group, Antony, https://webgr.inrae.fr/base-de-donnees.

Gupta, H.V., Perrin, C., Blöschl, G., Montanari, A., Kumar, R., Clark, M., Andréassian, V. (2014). Large-sample hydrology: A need to balance depth with breadth. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(2), 463–477, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014.

How to cite: Andréassian, V., Delaigue, O., Perrin, C., Janet, B., and Addor, N.: CAMELS-FR: A large sample, hydroclimatic dataset for France, to support model testing and evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13349, 2021.

EGU21-14335 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

LamaH: Large-sample Data for Hydrology in Central Europe

Christoph Klingler, Mathew Herrnegger, Frederik Kratzert, and Karsten Schulz

Open large-sample datasets are important for various reasons: i) they enable large-sample analyses, ii) they democratize access to data, iii) they enable large-sample comparative studies and foster reproducibility, and iv) they are a key driver for recent developments of machine-learning based modelling approaches.

Recently, various large-sample datasets have been released (e.g. different country-specific CAMELS datasets), however, all of them contain only data of individual catchments distributed across entire countries and not connected river networks.

Here, we present LamaH, a new dataset covering all of Austria and the foreign upstream areas of the Danube, spanning a total of 170.000 km² in 9 different countries with discharge observations for 882 gauges. The dataset also includes 15 different meteorological time series, derived from ERA5-Land, for two different basin delineations: First, corresponding to the entire upstream area of a particular gauge, and second, corresponding only to the area between a particular gauge and its upstream gauges. The time series data for both, meteorological and discharge data, is included in hourly and daily resolution and covers a period of over 35 years (with some exceptions in discharge data for a couple of gauges).

Sticking closely to the CAMELS datasets, LamaH also contains more than 60 catchment attributes, derived for both types of basin delineations. The attributes include climatic, hydrological and vegetation indices, land cover information, as well as soil, geological and topographical properties. Additionally, the runoff gauges are classified by over 20 different attributes, including information about human impact and indicators for data quality and completeness. Lastly, LamaH also contains attributes for the river network itself, like gauge topology, stream length and the slope between two sequential gauges.

Given the scope of LamaH, we hope that this dataset will serve as a solid database for further investigations in various tasks of hydrology. The extent of data combined with the interconnected river network and the high temporal resolution of the time series might reveal deeper insights into water transfer and storage with appropriate methods of modelling.

How to cite: Klingler, C., Herrnegger, M., Kratzert, F., and Schulz, K.: LamaH: Large-sample Data for Hydrology in Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14335, 2021.

EGU21-9283 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

ADHI: The African Database of Hydrometric Indices (1950-2018)

Nathalie Rouché, Yves Tramblay, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Gil Mahé, Jean-François Boyer, Ernest Amoussou, Ansoumana Bodian, Honoré Dacosta, Hamouda Dakhlaoui, Alain Dezetter, Denis Hughes, Lahoucine Hanich, Christophe Peugeot, Raphael Tshimanga, and Patrick Lachassagne

The African continent is probably the one with the lowest density of hydrometric stations currently measuring river discharge, despite the fact that the number of stations was quite important until the 70s. In addition, there is a major issue of data availability, since the different existing datasets are scattered across vast regions, heterogeneous and often with a large amount of missing data in the time series. The aim of this African Dataset of Hydrometric Indices (ADHI) is to provide a set of hydrometric indices computed from an unprecedented large set of daily discharge data in Africa. The ADHI database is based on a new streamflow dataset of 1466 gauging stations with an average record length of 33 years and for over 100 stations complete records are available over 50 years. ADHI is compiling data from different sources carefully checked, based on the historical databases of ORSTOM / IRD and the GRDC, including also other contributions from different countries and basin agencies. The criterion for a station to be included in ADHI is to have a minimum of 10 full years of daily discharge data between 1950 and 2018 with less than 5% missing data. Some time series originating from different sources were concatenated, after making sure the rating curves applied on the different time periods to compute river discharge were similar. Data records were scrutinized to identify suspicious discharge records and time periods where gap-filling methods have been applied to the original records. The selected stations are spread across the whole African continent, with the highest density in Western and Southern Africa and the lowest density in Eastern Africa. They are representative of most of the climate zones of Africa according the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. From this dataset, a large range of hydrological indices and flow signatures have been computed and made available to the scientific community (https://doi.org/10.23708/LXGXQ9). They are representing mean flow characteristics and extremes (low flows and floods) but also catchment characteristics, allowing to study the long-term evolution of hydrology in Africa and support the modelling efforts that aim at reducing the vulnerability of African countries to hydro-climatic variability.

How to cite: Rouché, N., Tramblay, Y., Paturel, J.-E., Mahé, G., Boyer, J.-F., Amoussou, E., Bodian, A., Dacosta, H., Dakhlaoui, H., Dezetter, A., Hughes, D., Hanich, L., Peugeot, C., Tshimanga, R., and Lachassagne, P.: ADHI: The African Database of Hydrometric Indices (1950-2018), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9283, 2021.

EGU21-3865 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

GRQA: Global River Water Quality Archive

Holger Virro, Giuseppe Amatulli, Alexander Kmoch, Longzhu Shen, and Evelyn Uuemaa

Recent advances in implementing machine learning (ML) methods in hydrology have given rise to a new, data-driven approach to hydrological modeling. Comparison of physically based and ML approaches has shown that ML methods can achieve a similar accuracy to the physically based ones and outperform them when describing nonlinear relationships. Global ML models have been already successfully applied for modeling hydrological phenomena such as discharge.

However, a major problem related to large-scale  water quality modeling has been the lack of available observation data with a good spatiotemporal coverage. This has affected the reproducibility of previous studies and the potential improvement of existing models. In addition to the observation data itself, insufficient or poor quality metadata has also discouraged researchers to integrate the already available datasets. Therefore, improving both, the availability, and quality of open water quality data would increase the potential to implement predictive modeling on a global scale.

We aim to address the aforementioned issues by presenting the new Global River Water Quality Archive (GRQA) by integrating data from five existing global and regional sources:

  • Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators program (CESI)
  • Global Freshwater Quality Database (GEMStat)
  • GLObal RIver Chemistry database (GLORICH)
  • European Environment Agency (Waterbase)
  • USGS Water Quality Portal (WQP)

The resulting dataset contains a total of over 14 million observations for 41 different forms of some of the most important water quality parameters, focusing on nutrients, carbon, oxygen and sediments. Supplementary metadata and statistics are provided with the observation time series to improve the usability of the dataset. We report on developing a harmonized schema and reproducible workflow that can be adapted to integrate and harmonize further data sources. We conclude our study with a call for action to extend this dataset and hope that the provided reproducible method of data integration and metadata provenance shall lead as an example.

How to cite: Virro, H., Amatulli, G., Kmoch, A., Shen, L., and Uuemaa, E.: GRQA: Global River Water Quality Archive, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3865, 2021.

EGU21-9277 | vPICO presentations | HS2.5.3

HydroSHEDS v2.0 – Refined global river network and catchment delineations from TanDEM-X elevation data

Bernhard Lehner, Achim Roth, Martin Huber, Mira Anand, Günther Grill, Nicole Osterkamp, Raphael Tubbesing, Leena Warmedinger, and Michele Thieme

Since its introduction in 2008, the HydroSHEDS database (www.hydrosheds.org) has transformed large-scale hydro-ecological research and applications worldwide by offering standardized spatial units for hydrological assessments. At its core, HydroSHEDS provides digital hydrographic information that can be applied in Geographic Information Software (GIS) or hydrological models to delineate river networks and catchment boundaries at multiple scales, from local to global. Its various data layers form the basis for applications in a wide range of disciplines including environmental, conservation, socioeconomic, human health, and sustainability studies.

Version 1 of HydroSHEDS was derived from the digital elevation model of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at a pixel resolution of 3 arc-seconds (~90 meters at the equator). It was created using customized processing and optimization algorithms and a high degree of manual quality control. Results are available at varying resolutions, ranging from 3 arc-seconds (~90 m) to 5 minutes (~10 km), and in nested sub-basin structures, making the data uniquely suitable for applications at multiple scales. A suite of related data collections and value-added information, foremost the HydroATLAS compilation of over 50 hydro-environmental attributes for every river reach and sub-basin, continuously enhance the versatility of the HydroSHEDS family of products. Yet version 1 of HydroSHEDS shows some important limitations. In particular, coverage above 60° northern latitude (i.e., largely the Arctic) is missing for the 3 arc-second product and is of low quality for coarser products because no SRTM elevation data are available for this region. Also, some areas are affected by inherent data gaps or other errors that could not be fully resolved at the time of creating version 1 of HydroSHEDS.

Today, the TanDEM-X dataset (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), created in partnership between the German Aerospace Agency (DLR) and Airbus, offers a new digital elevation model covering the entire global land surface including northern latitudes. In a collaborative project, this dataset is used to extract HydroSHEDS v2.0, following the same basic specifications as version 1. DLR is processing the original 12 m resolution TanDEM-X data to create a hydrologically pre-conditioned version at 3 arc-second resolution. In this step, corrections with high-resolution vegetation and settlement maps are applied to reduce distortions caused by vegetation cover and in built-up areas. Following this preprocessing, refined hydrological optimization and correction algorithms are used to derive the drainage pathways, including improved ‘stream-burning’ techniques that incorporate recent data products such as high-resolution terrestrial open water masks and improved tracing of drainage pathways as center lines in global lake and river maps. The resulting HydroSHEDS v2.0 database will provide river networks and catchment boundaries at full global coverage. Release of the data under a free license is scheduled for 2022, with regions above 60° northern latitude being completed first in 2021.

How to cite: Lehner, B., Roth, A., Huber, M., Anand, M., Grill, G., Osterkamp, N., Tubbesing, R., Warmedinger, L., and Thieme, M.: HydroSHEDS v2.0 – Refined global river network and catchment delineations from TanDEM-X elevation data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9277, 2021.

HS3.1 – Hydroinformatics: computational intelligence, systems analysis, optimisation, data science, and innovative sensing techniques

EGU21-13308 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Uncertainty estimation with LSTM based rainfall-runoff models

Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Alden K. Sampson, Günter Klambauer, Johannes Brandstetter, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey Nearing

Uncertainty is a central part of hydrological inquiry. Deep Learning provides us with new tools for estimating these inherent uncertainties. The currently best performing rainfall-runoff models are based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. However, most LSTM-based modelling studies focus on point estimates.

Building on the success of LSTMs for estimating point predictions, this contribution explores different extensions to directly provide uncertainty estimations. We find that the resulting models provide excellent estimates in our benchmark for daily rainfall-runoff across hundreds basins. We provide an intuitive overview of these strong results, the benchmarking procedure, and the approaches used for obtaining them.

In short, we extend the LSTMs in two ways to obtain uncertainty estimations. First, we parametrize LSTMs so that they directly provide uncertainty estimates in the form of mixture densities. This is possible because it is a general function approximation approach. It requires minimal a-priori knowledge of the sampling distribution and provides us with an estimation technique for the aleatoric uncertainty of the given setup.  Second, we use Monte Carlo Dropout to randomly mask out random connections of the network. This enforces an implicit approximation to a Gaussian Process and therefore provides us with a tool to estimate a form of epistemic uncertainty. In the benchmark the mixture density based approaches provide better estimates, especially the ones that use Asymmetric Laplacians as components.

How to cite: Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., K. Sampson, A., Klambauer, G., Brandstetter, J., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Uncertainty estimation with LSTM based rainfall-runoff models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13308, 2021.

EGU21-3590 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

A hybrid model coupling extreme gradient boosting model with Gaussian mixture model for streamflow forecasting

Lingling Ni, Dong Wang, Jianfeng Wu, and Yuankun Wang

With the increasing water requirements and weather extremes, effective planning and management for water issues has been of great concern over the past decades. Accurate and reliable streamflow forecasting is a critical step for water resources supply and prevention of natural disasters. In this study, we developed a hybrid model (namely GMM-XGBoost), coupling extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with Gaussian mixture model (GMM), for monthly streamflow forecasting. The proposed model is based on the principle of modular model, where a complex problem is divided into several simple ones. GMM was applied to cluster streamflow into several groups, using the features selected by a tree-based method. Then, each group was used to fit several single XGBoosts. And the prediction is a weighted average of the single models. Two streamflow datasets were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The prediction accuracy of GMM-XGBoost was compared with that of support vector machine (SVM) and standalone XGBoost. The results indicated that although all three models yielded quite good performance on one-month ahead forecasting with high Nash-Sutclitte efficiency coefficient (NSE) and low root mean squared error (RMSE), GMM-XGBoost provided the best accuracy with significant improvement of forecasting accuracy. It can be inferred from the results that (1) XGBoost is applicable for streamflow forecasting, and in general, performs better than SVM; (2) the cluster analysis-based modular model is helpful in improving accuracy; (3) the proposed GMM-XGBoost model is a superior alternative, which can provide accurate and reliable predictions for optimal water resources management.

Note: This study has been published in Journal of Hydrology (Ni, L., Wang, D., Wu, J., Wang, Y., Tao, Y., Zhang, J. and Liu, J., 2020. Streamflow forecasting using extreme gradient boosting model coupled with Gaussian mixture model. Journal of Hydrology, 586.).

How to cite: Ni, L., Wang, D., Wu, J., and Wang, Y.: A hybrid model coupling extreme gradient boosting model with Gaussian mixture model for streamflow forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3590, 2021.

EGU21-15072 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Flood forecasting in small catchments using deep learning LSTM networks

Tanja Morgenstern, Sofie Pahner, Robert Mietrach, and Niels Schütze

Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are able to learn and replicate the relationships of multiple climate and hydrological temporal variables, and therefore are theoretically suitable for data driven modelling and forecasting of rainfall-runoff behavior. However, they inherit some prediction errors occasionally found in data-driven models: phase shift errors, oscillations and total failures. The phase shift error is a particularly significant challenge due to its occurrence when using hourly precipitation and runoff data for catchments with short response times.

In order to detect and eliminate these errors, we investigated four approaches, of which the first two are of structural nature, while the last two modify the input time series by certain transformations:
1. The use of encoder-decoder architectures for LSTM networks.
2. Offsetting the start of the flood forecast to the forecast time step of interest.
3. The inversion of the input time series.
4. Including subsequently observed precipitation data as a “best precipitation forecast”.

We tested the four approaches on five different pilot catchments located in Saxony, Germany with relatively short response times. The results show no advantage of the structural approaches. In contrast, the modification of the input time series shows potential for improving the predictive quality of flood forecasting in a potential operational application.

How to cite: Morgenstern, T., Pahner, S., Mietrach, R., and Schütze, N.: Flood forecasting in small catchments using deep learning LSTM networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15072, 2021.

In this contribution, I will suggest an approach to build models as ordered and connected collections of multivariate, discrete probability distributions (dpd's). This approach can be seen as a Machine-Learning (ML) approach as it allows very flexible learning from data (almost) without prior constraints. Models can be built on dpd's only (fully data-based model), but they can also be included into existing process-based models at places where relations among data are not well-known (hybrid model). This provides flexibility for learning similar to including other ML approaches - e.g. Neural Networks - into process-based models, with the advantage that the dpd's can be investigated and interpreted by the modeler as long as their dimensionality remains low. Models based on dpd's are fundamentally probabilistic, and model responses for out-of-sample situations can be assured by dynamically coarse-graining the dpd's: The farther a predictive situation is from the learning situations, the coarser/more uncertain the prediction will be, and vice versa.

I will present the main elements and steps of such dpd-based modeling at the example of several systems, ranging from simple deterministic (ideal spring) to complex (hydrological system), and will discuss the influence of i) the size of the available training data set, ii) choice of the dpd priors, and iii) binning choices on the models' predictive power.

How to cite: Ehret, U.: Hybrid modeling using multivariate, discrete probability distributions , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2866, 2021.

EGU21-4024 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Partitioning of daily evapotranspiration using a modified shuttleworthwallace model, random Forest and support vector regression, for a cabbage farmland

Han Li, Han Chen, Jinhui Jeanne Huang, Edward McBean, Jiawei Zhang, Junjie Gao, and Zhingqing Lan

Prediction of vegetation transpiration (T) is of increasing importance in water resources management and agricultural practices, in particular to facilitate precision irrigation. Traditional evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning dual source modeling requires an extensive array of ground-level parameters and needs model correction and calibration to attain model certainty. In response, a quick and low-cost method is described to predict T using artificial intelligence (AI) modeling based on meteorological factors, status of crop growth factors and soil parameters. This study compares Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) in building AI models using three years (2014–2017) of continuous high-resolution monitoring data in a cabbage farmland.Input data included air temperature (Ta), solar radiation (Ra), relative humidity (RH), vapor pressure deficit(VPD), wind speed (Ws), soil moisture (SM), vegetation height (H), and leaf area index (LAI). The results show that soil surface resistance calculations by Monte Carlo iterative method and vegetation stomatal resistance calculations and carbon dioxide concentration and emission, improve performance of the original Shuttleworth–Wallace(S-W) model. In addition, the AI model indicates Ta and Ra are essential inputs for both model types. When there are sufficient observation data, or only lacking soil and vegetation data, the RF model is recommended for use. When there are only limited data or lack of critical Ta and Ra data, the SVR model is the preferred model. Scientific guidance is provided for agriculture precision irrigation, indicating which AI model can best estimate T and water demand for irrigation planning and water management.

How to cite: Li, H., Chen, H., Huang, J. J., McBean, E., Zhang, J., Gao, J., and Lan, Z.: Partitioning of daily evapotranspiration using a modified shuttleworthwallace model, random Forest and support vector regression, for a cabbage farmland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4024, 2021.

EGU21-7170 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Using machine learning to downscale simulations of climate change induced changes to the shallow groundwater table

Raphael Schneider, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Julian Koch, Lars Troldborg, and Simon Stisen

The DK-model (https://vandmodel.dk/in-english) is a national water resource model, covering all of Denmark. Its core is a distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model in 500m horizontal resolution. With recent efforts, a version at a higher resolution of 100m was created. The higher resolution was, amongst others, desired by end-users and to better represent surface and surface-near phenomena such as the location of the uppermost groundwater table. Being presently located close to the surface across substantial parts of the country and partly expected to rise, the groundwater table and its future development due to climate change is of great interest. A rising groundwater table is associated with potential risks for infrastructure, agriculture and ecosystems. However, the 25-fold jump in resolution of the hydrological model also increases the computational effort. Hence, it was deemed unfeasible to run the 100m resolution hydrological model nation-wide with an ensemble of climate models to evaluate climate change impact. The full ensemble run could only be performed with the 500m version of the model. To still produce the desired outputs at 100m resolution, a downscaling method was applied as described in the following.

Five selected subcatchment models covering around 9% of Denmark were run with five selected climate models at 100m resolution (using less than 3% of the computational time for hydrological models compared to a national, full ensemble run at 100m). Using the simulated changes at 100m resolution from those models as training data, combined with a set of covariates including the simulated changes in 500m resolution, Random Forest (RF) algorithms were trained to downscale simulated changes from 500m to 100m.

Generalizing the trained RF algorithms, Denmark-wide maps of expected climate change induced changes to the shallow groundwater table at 100m resolution were modelled. To verify the downscaling results, amongst others, the RF algorithms were successfully validated against results from a sixth hydrological subcatchment model at 100m resolution not used in training the algorithms.

The experience gained also opens for various other applications of similar algorithms where computational limitations inhibit running distributed hydrological models at fine resolutions: The results suggest the potential to downscale other model outputs that are desired at fine resolutions.

How to cite: Schneider, R., Henriksen, H. J., Koch, J., Troldborg, L., and Stisen, S.: Using machine learning to downscale simulations of climate change induced changes to the shallow groundwater table, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7170, 2021.

In recent years, the application of model ensembles has received increasing attention in the hydrological modelling community due to the interesting results reported in several studies carried out in different parts of the world. The main idea of these approaches is to combine the results of the same hydrological model or a number of different hydrological models in order to obtain more robust, better-fitting models, reducing at the same time the uncertainty in the predictions. The techniques for combining models range from simple approaches such as averaging different simulations, to more complex techniques such as least squares, genetic algorithms and more recently artificial intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).

Despite the good results that model ensembles are able to provide, the models selected to build the ensemble have a direct influence on the results. Contrary to intuition, it has been reported that the best fitting single models do not necessarily produce the best ensemble. Instead, better results can be obtained with ensembles that incorporate models with moderate goodness of fit. This implies that the selection of the single models might have a random component in order to maximize the results that ensemble approaches can provide.

The present study is carried out using hydrological data on an hourly scale between 2008 and 2015 corresponding to the Mandeo basin, located in the Northwest of Spain. In order to obtain 1000 single models, a hydrological model was run using 1000 sets of parameters sampled randomly in their feasible space. Then, we have classified the models in 3 groups with the following characteristics: 1) The 25 single models with highest Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, 2) The 25 single models with the highest Pearson coefficient, and 3) The complete group of 1000 single models.

The ensemble models are built with 5 models as the input of an ANN and the observed series as the output. Then, we applied the Random-Restart Hill-Climbing (RRHC) algorithm choosing 5 random models in each iteration to re-train the ANN in order to identify a better ensemble. The algorithm is applied to build 50 ensembles in each group of models. Finally, the results are compared to those obtained by optimizing the model using a gradient-based method by means of the following goodness-of-fit measures: Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) coefficient, adapted for high flows Nash-Sutcliffe (HF−NSE), adapted for low flows Nash-Sutcliffe (LF−W NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2).

The results show that the RRHC algorithm can identify adequate ensembles. The ensembles built using the group of models selected based on the NSE outperformed the model optimized by the gradient method in 64 % of the cases in at least 3 of 4 coefficients, both in the calibration and validation stages. Followed by the ensembles built with the group of models selected based on the Pearson coefficient with 56 %. In the case of the third group, no ensembles were identified that outperformed the gradient-based method. However, the most part of the ensembles outperformed the 1000 individual models.

Keywords: Multi-model ensemble; Single-model ensemble; Artificial Neural Networks; Hydrological Model; Random-restart Hill-climbing

 

How to cite: Farfán-Durán, J. F. and Cea, L.: Building hydrological single-model ensembles using artificial neural networks and a combinatorial optimization approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8256, 2021.

EGU21-9375 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Automatic input variable selection for analog methods using genetic algorithms

Pascal Horton and Olivia Martius

Analog methods (AMs) are statistical downscaling methods often used for precipitation prediction in different contexts, such as operational forecasting, past climate reconstruction of climate change impact studies. It usually relies on predictors describing the atmospheric circulation and the moisture content of the atmosphere to sample similar meteorological situations in the past and establish a probabilistic forecast for a target date. AMs can be based on outputs from numerical weather prediction models in the context of operational forecasting or outputs from climate models in climatic applications.

AMs can be constituted of multiple predictors organized in different subsequent levels of analogy that refines the selection of similar situations. The development of such methods is usually a manual process where some predictors are assessed in different structures. As most AMs use multiple predictors, a comprehensive assessment of all combinations becomes quickly impossible. The selection of predictors in the application of the AM often builds on previous work and does not evolve much. However, the climate models providing the predictors evolve continuously and new variables might become relevant to be considered in AMs. Moreover, the best predictors might change from one region to another or for another predictand of interest. There is a need for a method to automatically explore potential variables for AMs and to extract the ones that are relevant for a predictand of interest.

We propose using genetic algorithms (GAs) to proceed to an automatic selection of the predictor variables along with all other parameters of the AM. We even let the GAs automatically pick the best analogy criteria, i.e. the metric that quantifies the analogy between two situations. The first test consisted of letting the GAs select the single best variable to predict daily precipitation for each of 25 selected catchments in Switzerland. The results showed great consistency in terms of spatial patterns and the underlying meteorological processes. Then, different structures were assessed by varying the number of levels of analogy and the number of variables per level. Finally, multiple optimizations were conducted on the 25 catchments to identify the 12 variables that provide the best prediction when considered together.

How to cite: Horton, P. and Martius, O.: Automatic input variable selection for analog methods using genetic algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9375, 2021.

EGU21-13929 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

A Machine Learning Sustainable Development Goals Model for Water Resources Serious Gaming. Case Study:  Combeima River, Colombia.

Laura Viviana Garzon Useche, Karel Aldrin Sánchez Hernández, Gerald Augusto Corzo Pérez, and German Ricardo Santos Granados

The importance of knowing and representing rural and urban development in water management is vital for its sustainability.  An essential part of the management required that stakeholders are more aware of the consequences of decisions and in some way, can link decisions towards sustainability.  For this, a mobile app serious game called Water Citizens has been proposed as knowledge dissemination and to provide a better understanding of the way decisions affect Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A complex model of a pilot region (Combeima in Ibague, Colombia) has been developed, and the model results are few into equations to estimate fluctuations of SDGs in the region. Running this complex model in real-time, for a mobile application, requires an extensive high-performance computing system linked to large and complex network setup. To solve this problem, a fast yet accurate surrogate model is proposed.

Therefore, this study contemplates an analysis of methods to forecast sustainable development indicators evaluated through climate change scenarios for a period between 1989-2039. The proposed scenarios associated the public health, livestock, agriculture, engineering, education and environment sectors with climate variables, climate change projections, land cover and land use, water demands (domestic, agricultural and livestock) and water quality (BOD and TSS). Generating the possibility that each player can make decisions that represent the actions that affect or contribute to the demand, availability and quality of water in the region.

Consequently, a set of indicators were selected to recreate the dimensions of each sector and reflect its relationship with the Sustainable Development Objectives, as opposed to the decisions made by each player. In addition, three categories were considered for the levels of sustainability: low (0.0 - 0.33), medium (0.34 - 0.66) and high (0.67 - 1.0) for the calculated SDG values. 

Self-learning techniques have been employed in the analysis of decision-making problems. In this study, the nearest K neighbours (k-NN) and a multilayer perceptron network (MLP) were used. Through an analysis based on the responses of the players and sustainability indexes, a multiple correlation analysis was developed in order to consolidate the learning dataset, which was randomly partitioned in proportions 0.7 and 0.3 for the training and test subsets respectively. Subsequently, the model fit and performance was carried out, analysing the MSE error metric and confusion matrix.

Finally, the results of this study will allow to determine the potential of supervised learning models as a decision-making tool for the evaluation of sustainable development, as well as to obtain a better abstraction and representation of the water resource to the challenges related to climate adaptation and water sustainability measures of citizen action, besides generating new approaches for the use of artificial intelligence in land use planning and climate adaptation processes.

How to cite: Garzon Useche, L. V., Sánchez Hernández, K. A., Corzo Pérez, G. A., and Santos Granados, G. R.: A Machine Learning Sustainable Development Goals Model for Water Resources Serious Gaming. Case Study:  Combeima River, Colombia., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13929, 2021.

EGU21-13198 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Natural Language Processing In Integrated Water Resources Management. Case Study: Three Bolivian River Basins

Camilo Andres Gonzalez Ayala, Santiago Duarte Prieto, Ana Escalera, Gerald Corzo Perez, Hector Angarita, and German Santos Granados

The socio-economic development of a country depends mainly on adequate integrated water resources management (IWRM). Sectors such as mining and agriculture are two main economic activities in Bolivia, that negatively impact the water resource quality and availability. Also, every year, floods and droughts hit the most vulnerable populations in different regions of Bolivia. Floods represent the greatest hydroclimatological risk factor in the country along with landslides caused by heavy precipitation. Along with these challenges in the country, there is also inefficient water treatment for water supply which can lead to other problems like diseases. Nowadays, the media such as newspapers, television, radio, report on these problems, in terms of water resources, which are experienced year after year in the country. Furthermore, due to advances in technology, this information can be found digitally. In the same way, people have made use of social networks, such as twitter, to express their opinion on a specific topic. The type of information found both in the media and in social networks is called qualitative information.

This digital information will be extracted using web crawling and web scrapping techniques that allow the process to be automated. This process is performed by applying keywords in the context of water resources in Bolivia, such as names of different water bodies in a basin. Once the information has been extracted, it will be transformed into a quantitative form, in such a way that it is useful for planning and decision-making processes of IWRM in Bolivia.

The purpose of this research is focused on the application of Natural Language Processing in the digital information found for three hydrological basins located in Bolivia, in order to recognize how Bolivian society relates the management of water resources. These hydrological basins are La Paz - Choqueyapu, Tupiza and Pampa – Huari. Initially, the digital information that will be studied in this research consists of three Bolivian newspapers and the information found on Twitter. The application of a sentiment analysis classification model in Python language programming is developed. In order to preserve the semantic information and the different words in the text, Word2Vec model will be used. The extracted digital information is pre-processed, eliminating empty words that do not add sentiments to a text and punctuation marks. Once the information is pre-processed, it is divided into two types, training and testing. The training data will be used to train the Word2Vec model. The result of the model consists of a value that determines the positive, neutral or negative sentiment of the text. Once the model is trained, the testing data that has not been used will be applied in order to evaluate the performance of the model.

This research helps to identify key elements, actors, frequent words related to IWRM, factors related to river health and improve the concept of citizen science. The results are mapped by geolocation, as a frequency distribution considering the digital perception (sentiment analysis) found and the frequency in which a topic is mentioned in the analysed digital information.

How to cite: Gonzalez Ayala, C. A., Duarte Prieto, S., Escalera, A., Corzo Perez, G., Angarita, H., and Santos Granados, G.: Natural Language Processing In Integrated Water Resources Management. Case Study: Three Bolivian River Basins, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13198, 2021.

EGU21-14752 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Identification of Synchronicity in Deterministic Chaotic Attractors for the Downscaling Process in the Bogotá River Basin

Santiago Duarte, Gerald Corzo, and Germán Santos

Bogotá’s River Basin, it’s an important basin in Cundinamarca, Colombia’s central region. Due to the complexity of the dynamical climatic system in tropical regions, can be difficult to predict and use the information of GCMs at the basin scale. This region is especially influenced by ENSO and non-linear climatic oscillation phenomena. Furthermore, considering that climatic processes are essentially non-linear and possibly chaotic, it may reduce the effectiveness of downscaling techniques in this region. 

In this study, we try to apply chaotic downscaling to see if we could identify synchronicity that will allow us to better predict. It was possible to identify clearly the best time aggregation that can capture at the best the maximum relations between the variables at different spatial scales. Aside this research proposes a new combination of multiple attractors. Few analyses have been made to evaluate the existence of synchronicity between two or more attractors. And less analysis has considered the chaotic behaviour in attractors derived from climatic time series at different spatial scales. 

Thus, we evaluate general synchronization between multiple attractors of various climate time series. The Mutual False Nearest Neighbours parameter (MFNN) is used to test the “Synchronicity Level” (existence of any type of synchronization) between two different attractors. Two climatic variables were selected for the analysis: Precipitation and Temperature. Likewise, two information sources are used: At the basin scale, local climatic-gauge stations with daily data and at global scale, the output of the MPI-ESM-MR model with a spatial resolution of 1.875°x1.875° for both climatic variables (1850-2005). In the downscaling process, two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)  scenarios are used, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

For the attractor’s reconstruction, the time-delay is obtained through the  Autocorrelation and the Mutual Information functions. The False Nearest Neighbors method (FNN) allowed finding the embedding dimension to unfold the attractor. This information was used to identify deterministic chaos at different times (e.g. 1, 2, 3 and 5 days) and spatial scales using the Lyapunov exponents. These results were used to test the synchronicity between the various chaotic attractor’s sets using the MFNN method and time-delay relations. An optimization function was used to find the attractor’s distance relation that increases the synchronicity between the attractors.  These results provided the potential of synchronicity in chaotic attractors to improve rainfall and temperature downscaling results at aggregated daily-time steps. Knowledge of loss information related to multiple reconstructed attractors can provide a better construction of downscaling models. This is new information for the downscaling process. Furthermore, synchronicity can improve the selection of neighbours for nearest-neighbours methods looking at the behaviour of synchronized attractors. This analysis can also allow the classification of unique patterns and relationships between climatic variables at different temporal and spatial scales.

How to cite: Duarte, S., Corzo, G., and Santos, G.: Identification of Synchronicity in Deterministic Chaotic Attractors for the Downscaling Process in the Bogotá River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14752, 2021.

EGU21-16388 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Groundwater pollution monitoring and the inverse problem of source identification. Evaluation of various Machine Learning methods

Yiannis Kontos, Theodosios Kassandros, Konstantinos Katsifarakis, and Kostas Karatzas

Groundwater pollution numerical simulations coupled with Genetic Algorithms (GAs) lead to vast computational load, while flow fields’ simplification can compensate in design, but not real-time/operational, applications. Various Machine Learning/Deep Learning (ML/DL) methods/problem-formulations were tested/evaluated for real-time inverse problems of aquifer pollution source identification. Aim: investigate data-driven approaches towards replacing flow simulation with ML/DL trained models identifying the source, faster but efficiently enough.

Steady flow in a 1500mx1500m theoretical confined, isotropic aquifer of known characteristics is studied. Two pumping wells (PWs) near the southern boundary provide irrigation/drinking water, defining the flow together with a varying North-South natural flow. Six suspected possible sources, capable of instantaneous leakage, may spread a conservative pollutant. Particle tracking simulates advective mass transport, in a 2D flow-field for 2500 1-day timesteps. The 14x14 inner field grid nodes serve as locations of sources, PWs and monitoring wells (MWs; for simple daily yes/no pollution detection and/or drawdown measuring). 15,246 combinations of 6 Source Nrs, 21 N-S hydraulic gradients, 11+11 PW1,2 flow-rates were simulated with existing own software, providing the necessary data-sets for ML training/evaluation.

Two basic ML/DL approaches were implemented: Classification (CL) and Computer Vision (CV). In CL, every source is a discrete class, while each MW is a discrete variable. The target variable Y can equal 1 to 6, while input variables X can be: a) 0/1 (MWi polluted or not), b) the first day of MWi’s pollution, c) the duration of MWi’s pollution, d) hydraulic drawdown of MWi. For a bit more realism, the two southern rows of 28 MWs, and the MWs on/around PWs are concealed. CL features the advantage of facilitating Correlation-based Feature Subset Selection (CFSS), indirectly leading to a pseudo-optimization of the monitoring network, minimizing the number of MWs (not the sampling frequency though), based solely on the efficiency in identifying the source criterion. As a downside, time dimension and spatial correlation of MWs are not considered. Approach (b) being the best scheme, Random Forests (RFs; 86.5576% accuracy), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP; 77.5%), and Nearest Neighbors (NN; 86.5%) were tested. CFSS led to 8 only MWs being important, so training with the optimal subsets gave promising results: RF=85.4%, MLP=73.1%, NN=85.4%. In CV, MWis’ pollution input data on a 10-day basis (0-60, 800-on concealed) were formulated into 14x14-pixel black/white images, that is 14x14 binary (0,1) matrices, the t=0 image being the desideratum. A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN; U-Net architecture for image segmentation) achieved 97.1% accuracy. A Convolutional Long/Short-Term Memory Neural Network (CLSTM), training a model to back-propagate predicting each given time step, with unchanged data formulation (60-800d, step 10), exhibits 82.3% accuracy. CLSTM’s performance is timestep-sensitive, best results yielded (98% accuracy) using configuration 5-800d, step 6.

Concluding, CL’s CFSS minimizes the input space, while CV approaches yield more promising results in terms of accuracy. Each approach has certain constraints in operational applicability, concerning the number of MWs, the sampling resolution and the total elapsed time. This process paves the way for realistic inverse problem solutions, ML-GAs monitoring network optimization, and real-time pollution detection operational systems. 

How to cite: Kontos, Y., Kassandros, T., Katsifarakis, K., and Karatzas, K.: Groundwater pollution monitoring and the inverse problem of source identification. Evaluation of various Machine Learning methods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16388, 2021.

EGU21-11704 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Can hydrological model identifiability be improved? Stress-testing the concept of stochastic calibration

Vasileios Kourakos, Andreas Efstratiadis, and Ioannis Tsoukalas

Hydrological calibrations with historical data are often deemed insufficient for deducing safe estimations about a model structure that imitates, as closely as possible, the anticipated catchment behaviour. Ιn order to address this issue, we investigate a promising strategy, using as drivers synthetic time series, which preserve the probabilistic properties and dependence structure of the observed data. The key idea is calibrating a model on the basis of synthetic rainfall-runoff data, and validating against the full observed data sample. To this aim, we employed a proof of concept on few representative catchments, by testing several lumped conceptual hydrological models with alternative parameterizations and across two time-scales, monthly and daily. Next, we attempted to reinforce the validity of the recommended methodology by employing monthly stochastic calibrations in 100 MOPEX catchments. As before, a number of different hydrological models were used, for the purpose of proving that calibration with stochastic inputs is independent of the chosen model. The results highlight that in most cases the new approach leads to stronger parameter identifiability and stable predictive capacity across different temporal windows, since the model is trained over much extended hydroclimatic conditions.

How to cite: Kourakos, V., Efstratiadis, A., and Tsoukalas, I.: Can hydrological model identifiability be improved? Stress-testing the concept of stochastic calibration, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11704, 2021.

EGU21-13303 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Improving hydrological forecasts through temporal hierarchal reconciliation

Mohammad Sina Jahangir and John Quilty

Hydrological forecasts at different horizons are often made using different models. These forecasts are usually temporally inconsistent (e.g., monthly forecasts may not sum to yearly forecasts), which may lead to misaligned or conflicting decisions. Temporal hierarchal reconciliation (or simply, hierarchical reconciliation) methods can be used for obtaining consistent forecasts at different horizons. However, their effectiveness in the field of hydrology has not yet been investigated. Thus, this research assesses hierarchal reconciliation for precipitation forecasting due to its high importance in hydrological applications (e.g., reservoir operations, irrigation, drought and flood forecasting). Original precipitation forecasts (ORF) were produced using three different models, including ‘automatic’ Exponential Time-Series Smoothing (ETS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The forecasts were produced at six timescales, namely, monthly, 2-monthly, quarterly, 4-monthly, bi-annual, and annual, for 84 basins selected from the Canadian model parameter experiment (CANOPEX) dataset. Hierarchical reconciliation methods including Hierarchical Least Squares (HLS), Weighted Least Squares (WLS), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) along with the Bottom-Up (BU) method were applied to obtain consistent forecasts at all timescales.

Generally, ETS and ANN showed the best and worst performance, respectively, according to a wide range of performance metrics (root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (nRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), normalized MAE (nMAE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE)). The results indicated that hierarchal reconciliation has a dissimilar impact on the ORFs’ accuracy in different basins and timescales, improving the RMSE in some cases while decreasing it in others. Also, it was highlighted that for different forecast models, hierarchical reconciliation methods showed different levels of performance. According to the RMSE and MAE, the BU method outperformed the hierarchical methods for ETS forecasts, while for ANN and SARIMA forecasts, HLS and OLS improved the forecasts more substantially, respectively. The sensitivity of ORF to hierarchical reconciliation was assessed using the RMSE. It was shown that both accurate and inaccurate ORF could be improved through hierarchical reconciliation; in particular, the effectiveness of hierarchical reconciliation appears to be more dependent on the ORF accuracy than it is on the type of hierarchical reconciliation method.

While in the present work, the effectiveness of hierarchical reconciliation for hydrological forecasting was assessed via data-driven models, the methodology can easily be extended to process-based or hybrid (process-based data-driven) models. Further, since hydrological forecasts at different timescales may have different levels of importance to water resources managers and/or policymakers, hierarchical reconciliation can be used to weight the different timescales according to the user’s preference/desired goals.

How to cite: Jahangir, M. S. and Quilty, J.: Improving hydrological forecasts through temporal hierarchal reconciliation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13303, 2021.

EGU21-16249 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

An ensemble of deep learning models with data assimilation for hydrologic forecasting

Seong Jin Noh, Hyeonjin Choi, and Bomi Kim

We present an approach to combine two data-centric approaches, data assimilation (DA) and deep learning (DL), from the perspective of hydrologic forecasting. DA is a statistical approach based on Bayesian filtering to produce optimal states and/or parameters of a dynamic model using observations. By extracting information from both model and observational data, DA improves not only the performance of numerical modeling, but also understanding of uncertainties in predictions. While DA complements information gaps in model and observational data, DL constructs a new modeling system by extracting and abstracting information solely from data without relying on the conventional knowledge of hydrologic systems. In a new approach, an ensemble of deep learning models can be updated by real-time data assimilation when a new observation becomes available. In the presentation, we will focus on discussing the potentials of combining two data-centric approaches.

 

How to cite: Noh, S. J., Choi, H., and Kim, B.: An ensemble of deep learning models with data assimilation for hydrologic forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16249, 2021.

EGU21-9345 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Leakage detection in water pipe networks using machine learning

Yu Li, Jinhui Jeanne Huang, and Ran Yan

Leakage in the water supply system is a world problem that happens everywhere, not only in China but also in Japan, the US, and Europe. It not only results in the waste of water resources but also raises safety issues in drinking water. The traditional solution is the Minimum Night Flow method with manual leak detectors. This solution could only find leakage at night. The engineers have to search the leaking point randomly using leak detectors. It not only highly relies on domain knowledge and expertise but is also labor-consuming. The response time is quite long, might be a couple of days to several days. Here, time series analysis based on a dynamic time warping algorithm is used to detect anomalies in time series of pressure stations and flow stations, and the risk coefficient of each pipe network is determined by using a neural network combined with existing data. The water treatment plants don't even have to install new sensors if the budget is limited.

How to cite: Li, Y., Huang, J. J., and Yan, R.: Leakage detection in water pipe networks using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9345, 2021.

During January 2016 and December 2020, eastern and southern China including Shanghai experienced a rapid drop in temperatures along with snow. This cold wave which also had a severe impact on water distribution networks. Leakage of pipe network causes serious economic loss and waste of water resources. Nonetheless, cold wave is not the only factor affecting leakage from a pipe network. There are also other factors including the burial depth of pipes, the materials of pipes, the diameters of pipes, break history and so on. In this work, we use machine learning method and Bayesian distribution regression to explore the relationship between pipe leaks and impact factors. Based on results, risk maps of water distribution networks are generated. This research indicated that which risk factors is important for leakage detection and water loss management of urban water supply network, which can be promising for wide practical applications due to rapid expansion of data.

How to cite: Yan, R., Li, Y., and Huang, J. J.: A novel method to diagnose factors influencing in leakage in water distribution systems including extreme weather events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8156, 2021.

EGU21-4619 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

An innovative, timeseries-analysis-based method to extract rainfall-streamflow events from continuous timeseries

Giulia Giani, Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez, and Ross Woods

A widely accepted objective methodology to select individual rainfall-streamflow events is missing and this makes it difficult to synthesize findings from independent research initiatives. In fact, the selection of individual events is a fundamental step in many hydrological studies, but the importance and impact of the choices made at this stage are largely unrecognised.

The event selection methods found in the literature start by looking at either the rainfall timeseries or the streamflow timeseries. Moreover, most of the methodologies involve hydrograph separation, which is a highly uncertain step and can be performed using many different algorithms. Further increasing the subjectivity of the procedure, a wide range of ad hoc conditions are usually applied (e.g. peak-over-threshold, minimum duration of rainfall event, minimum duration of dry spell, minimum rainfall intensity…).

For these reasons, we present a new methodology to extract rainfall-streamflow events which minimizes the conceptual hypotheses and user’s choices, and bases the identification of the events mainly on the joint fluctuations of the two signals. The proposed methodology builds upon a timeseries analysis technique to estimate catchment response time, the Detrending Moving-average Cross-correlation Analysis-based method.

The proposed method has the advantage of looking simultaneously at the evolution in time of rainfall and streamflow timeseries, providing a more systemic detection of events. Moreover, the presented method can easily be adapted to extract events at different time resolutions (provided the resolution is fine enough to capture the delay between the rainfall and streamflow responses).

Properties of the events extracted with the proposed method are compared with the ones of the events extracted with the most traditional approach (based on hydrograph separation) to show strengths and weaknesses of the two techniques and suggest in which situations the proposed method can be most useful.

How to cite: Giani, G., Rico-Ramirez, M. A., and Woods, R.: An innovative, timeseries-analysis-based method to extract rainfall-streamflow events from continuous timeseries, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4619, 2021.

EGU21-14261 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Comprehensive analysis and separation of river hydrograph using the GrWat R package

Maria Kireeva, Timophey Samsonov, and Ekaterina Rets

River hydrograph analysis provides valuable information about temporal and spatial variability of the river discharge. One of the most imporant operations is separation of hydrograph, which aims at decomposing the total streamflow into components. Numerous approaches for hydrograph separation have been developed to date. Most of them traditionally separate the streamflow into general quickflow and baseflow components, but it is also possible to obtain more specific quickflow separation with subdivision into genetic components, such as seasonal snowmelt, rain, thaw etc. We present the general framework for river hydrograph analysis and separation provided by newly released GrWat package, which has been developed during several years. The framework includes a simple tabular data model for representation of hydrograph and climatic (temperature and precipitation) daily data needed for separation of the quickflow into genetic components; spatial analysis operations for automatic extraction of climatic data from reanalysis datasets covering the river basin; automated interpolation of missing data considering the autocorrelation; fast implementation of multiple algorithms for hydrograph separation; computation of more than 30 interannual and long-term characteristics of separated hydrograph components; scale-space transformation for hierarchical decomposition of the hydrograph; high-quality plotting and reporting of the results of analysis. One of the prominent features of the framework is a powerful algorithm for genetic hydrograph separation, which is capable of not only extracting the baseflow, seasonal, thaw and rain flood components, but also to cut the short-time rain floods which complicate the shape of the seasonal flood. The baseflow separation is performed on the first stage and can be initialized by any of the baseflow separation algorithms available in the package. On the second stage the quickflow is separated into genetic components. Such modular structure provides the flexible way to experiment with different combinations of algorithms and to select the approach wich serves best to the goal of the analysis and specific features of the hydrograph.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 19-77-10032

How to cite: Kireeva, M., Samsonov, T., and Rets, E.: Comprehensive analysis and separation of river hydrograph using the GrWat R package, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14261, 2021.

EGU21-14064 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

A geospatial and temporal analytics framework for flood risk mapping

Tatsuya Ishikawa, Takao Moriyama, Paolo Fraccaro, Anne Jones, and Blair Edwards
Floods have significant impact on social and economic activities, with flood frequency projected to increase in the future in many regions of the world due to climate change. Quantification of current and future flood risk at lead times of months to years are potentially of high value for planning activities in a wide range of humanitarian and business applications across multiple sectors. However, there are also many technical and methodological challenges in producing accurate, local predictions which also adequately quantify uncertainty. Multiple geospatial datasets are freely available to improve flood predictions, but their size and complexity mean they are difficult to store and combine. Generation of flood inundation risk maps requires the combination of several static geospatial data layers with potentially multiple simulation models and ensembles of climate inputs.
 
Here we present a geospatial climate impact modelling framework, which we apply to the challenge of flooding risk quantificationOur framework is modular, scalable cloud-based and allows for the easy deployment of different impact models and model components with a range of input datasets (different spatial and temporal scales) and model configurations.  
 
The framework allows us to use automated tools to carry out AI-enabled parameter calibration, model validation and uncertainty quantification/propagation, with the ability to quickly run the impact models for any location where the appropriate data is available.  We can additionally trial different sources of input data, pulling data from IBM PAIRS Geoscope and other sources, and we have done this with our pluvial flood models.
 
In this presentation, we provide pluvial flood risk assessments generated through our framework. We calibrate our flood models to accurately reproduce inundations derived from historical precipitation datasets, validated against flood maps obtained from corresponding satellite imagery, and quantify uncertainties for hydrological parameters. Probabilistic flood risk is generated through ensemble execution of such models, incorporating climate change and model parameter uncertainties.

How to cite: Ishikawa, T., Moriyama, T., Fraccaro, P., Jones, A., and Edwards, B.: A geospatial and temporal analytics framework for flood risk mapping, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14064, 2021.

EGU21-14650 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

K nearest neighbour in merging satellite rainfall estimates from diverse sources in sparsely gauged basins

Biswa Bhattacharya and Junaid Ahmad

Satellite based rainfall estimates (SBRE) are used as an alternative to gauge rainfall in hydrological studies particularly for basins with data issues. However, these data products exhibit errors which cannot always be corrected by bias correction methods such as Ratio Bias Correction (RBC). Data fusion or data merging can be a potentially good approach in merging various satellite rainfall products to obtain a fused dataset, which can benefit from all the data sources and may minimise the error in rainfall estimates. Data merging methods which are commonly applied in meteorology and hydrology are: Arithmetic merging method (AMM), Inverse error squared weighting (IESW) and Error variance (EV). Among these methods EV is popular, which merges can be used to merge bias corrected SBREs using the minimisation of variance principle.

In this research we investigated the possibility of using K nearest neighbour as a data merging method. Four satellite rainfall products were used in this study namely CMORPH, PERSIANN CDR, TRMM 3B42 and MSWEP. MSWEP was used as a reference dataset for comparing the merged rainfall dataset since it is also a merged product. All these products were downloaded at 0.25° x 0.25° spatial scale and daily temporal scale. Satellite products are known to behave differently at different temporal and spatial scales. Based on the climatic and physiographic features the Indus basin was divided into four zones. Rainfall products were compared at daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly and seasonal scales whereas spatial scales were gauge location, zonal scales and basin scale. The RBC method was used to correct the biasness of satellite products by correcting the products at monthly and seasonal scale. Wth bias correction the daily normalised root mean square error (NRMSE) was reduced up to 20% for CMORPH, 22% for PERSIANN CDR and 14% for TRMM at the Indus basin scale for monthly scale which is why the monthly bias corrected data was used for merging. Merging of satellite products can be fruitful to benefit from the strength of each product and minimize the weakness of products. Four different merging methods i.e. Arithmetic merging method (AMM), Inverse error squared weighting (IESW), Error variance (EV) and K Nearest Neighbour method (KNN) were used and performance was checked in two seasons i.e. non-wet and wet season. AMM and EV methods performed similarly whereas IESW performed poorly at zonal scales. KNN merging method outperformed all other merging methods and gave lowest error across the basin. Daily NRMSE was reduced to 0.3 at Indus basin scale with KNN method, AMM and EV reduced the error to 0.45 in comparison to error produced by CMORPH, PERSIANN CDR and TRMM of 0.8, 0.65 and 0.53 respectively in the wet season. KNN merged product gave lowest error at daily scale in calibration and validation period which justifies that merging improves rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged basin.

 

Key words: Merging, data fusion, K nearest neighbour, KNN, error variance, Indus.

How to cite: Bhattacharya, B. and Ahmad, J.: K nearest neighbour in merging satellite rainfall estimates from diverse sources in sparsely gauged basins, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14650, 2021.

EGU21-3709 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Application of Image Processing and Big Data Science for Flood Label Detection

Jaku Rabinder Rakshit Pally and Vidya Samadi

Due to the importance of object detection in video analysis and image annotation, it is widely utilized in a number of computer vision tasks such as face recognition, autonomous vehicles, activity recognition, tracking objects and identity verification. Object detection does not only involve classification and identification of objects within images, but also involves localizing and tracing the objects by creating bounding boxes around the objects and labelling them with their respective prediction scores. Here, we leverage and discuss how connected vision systems can be used to embed cameras, image processing, Edge Artificial Intelligence (AI), and data connectivity capabilities for flood label detection. We favored the engineering definition of label detection that a label is a sequence of discrete measurable observations obtained using a capturing device such as web cameras, smart phone, etc. We built a Big Data service of around 1000 images (image annotation service) including the image geolocation information from various flooding events in the Carolinas (USA) with a total of eight different object categories. Our developed platform has several smart AI tools and task configurations that can detect objects’ edges or contours which can be manually adjusted with a threshold setting so as to best segment the image. The tool has the ability to train the dataset and predict the labels for large scale datasets which can be used as an object detector to drastically reduce the amount of time spent per object particularly for real-time image-based flood forecasting.  This research is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF).

How to cite: Pally, J. R. R. and Samadi, V.: Application of Image Processing and Big Data Science for Flood Label Detection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3709, 2021.

EGU21-14711 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

On the potential of multi-source remote sensing data in characterizing the Total Suspended Matter variability in inland waters.

Emanuele Ciancia, Alessandra Campanelli, Teodosio Lacava, Angelo Palombo, Simone Pascucci, Nicola Pergola, Stefano Pignatti, Valeria Satriano, and Valerio Tramutoli

The assessment of TSM spatiotemporal variability plays a key role in inland water management, considering how these fluctuations affect water transparency, light availability, and the physical, chemical, and biological processes. All the above-mentioned topics highlight the need to develop innovative methodologies of data analysis that are able to handle multi-mission and multi-source remote sensing data, fostering the implementation of integrated and sustainable approaches. Sentinel-2A multispectral instrument (MSI) and Landsat 8 operational land instrument (OLI) data offer unique opportunities for investigating certain in-water constituents (e.g., TSM and chlorophyll-a) mainly owing to their spatial resolution (10–60 m). Furthermore, the joint use of these sensors offers the opportunity to build time series with an improved revisiting time thus enabling limnologists, aquatic ecologists and water resource managers to enhance their monitoring efforts. In this framework, the potential of MSI–OLI combined data in characterizing the multi-temporal (2014–2018) TSM variability in Pertusillo Lake (Basilicata region, Southern Italy) has been evaluated in this work. In particular, a customized MSI-based TSM model (R2=0.81) has been developed and validated by using ground truth data acquired during specific measurement campaigns. The model was then exported on OLI data through an inter-calibration procedure (R2=0.87), allowing for the generation of a TSM multi-temporal MSI–OLI merged dataset. The analysis of the derived multi-year TSM monthly maps has shown the influence of hydrological factors on the TSM seasonal dynamics over two sub-regions of the lake, the west and east areas. The western side appears more affected by inflowing rivers and water level fluctuations, whose  effects  tend to longitudinally decrease, leading to less sediment within the eastern sub-area. The achieved results highlight how the proposed methodological approach (i.e. in situ data collection, satellite data processing and modeling) can be exported in other inland waters that deserve to be investigated for a better management of water quality and monitoring systems.

How to cite: Ciancia, E., Campanelli, A., Lacava, T., Palombo, A., Pascucci, S., Pergola, N., Pignatti, S., Satriano, V., and Tramutoli, V.: On the potential of multi-source remote sensing data in characterizing the Total Suspended Matter variability in inland waters., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14711, 2021.

EGU21-13284 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Stochastic stress-testing approach for assessing resilience of urban water systems from source to tap

Dionysios Nikolopoulos, Panagiotis Kossieris, and Christos Makropoulos

Urban water systems are designed with the goal of delivering their service for several decades.  The infrastructure will inevitably face long-term uncertainty in a multitude of parameters from the hydroclimatic and socioeconomic realms (e.g., climate change, limited supply of water in terms quantity and acceptable quality, population growth, shifting demand patterns, industrialization), as well as from the conceptual realm of the decision maker (e.g., changes in policy, system maintenance incentives, investment rate, expansion plans). Because urban water systems are overly complex, a holistic analysis involves the use of various models that individually pertain to a smaller sub-system and a variety of metrics to assess performance, whereas the analysis is accomplished at different temporal and spatial scales for each sub-system. In this work, we integrate a water resources management model with a water distribution model and a water demand generation model at smaller (household and district) scale, allowing us to simulate urban water systems “from source to tap”, covering the entire water cycle. We also couple a stochastic simulation module that supports the representation of uncertainty throughout the water cycle. The performance of the integrated system under long term uncertainty is assessed with the novel measure of system’s resilience i.e. the degree to which a water system continues to perform under progressively increasing disturbance. This evaluation is essentially a framework of systematic stress-testing, where the disturbance is described via stochastically changing parameters in an ensemble of scenarios that represent future world views. The framework is showcased through a synthesized case study of a medium-sized urban water system.

Acknowledgement

This research is carried out / funded in the context of the project “A resilience assessment framework for water supply infrastructure under long-term uncertainty: A Source-to-Tap methodology integrating state of the art computational tools” (MIS 5049174) under the call for proposals “Researchers' support with an emphasis on young researchers- 2nd Cycle”. The project is co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Social Fund- ESF) by the Operational Programme Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning 2014-2020.”

How to cite: Nikolopoulos, D., Kossieris, P., and Makropoulos, C.: Stochastic stress-testing approach for assessing resilience of urban water systems from source to tap, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13284, 2021.

EGU21-12610 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Active learning of optimal controls for pump scheduling optimization

Antonio Candelieri, Riccardo Perego, Ilaria Giordani, and Francesco Archetti

Two approaches are possible in Pump Scheduling Optimization (PSO): explicit and implicit control. The first assumes that decision variables are pump statuses/speeds to be set up at prefixed time. Thus, the problem is to efficiently search among all the possible schedules (i.e., configurations of the decision variables) to optimize the objective function – typically minimization of the energy-related costs – while satisfying hydraulic feasibility. Since both the energy cost and the hydraulic feasibility are black-box, the problem is usually addressed through simulation-optimization, where every schedule is simulated on a “virtual twin” of the real-world water distribution network. A plethora of methods have been proposed such as meta-heuristics, evolutionary and nature-inspired algorithms. However, addressing PSO via explicit control can imply many decision variables for real-world water distribution networks, increasing with the number of pumps and time intervals for actuating the control, requiring a huge number of simulations to obtain a good schedule.

On the contrary, implicit control aims at controlling pump status/speeds depending on some control rules related, for instance, to pressure into the network: pump is activated if pressure (at specific locations) is lower than a minimum threshold, or it is deactivated if pressure exceeds a maximum threshold, otherwise, status/speed of the pump is not modified. These thresholds are the decision variables and their values – usually set heuristically – significantly affect the performance of the operations. Compared to explicit control, implicit control approaches allow to significantly reduce the number of decision variables, at the cost of making more complex the search space, due to the introduction of further constraints and conditions among decision variables. Another important advantage offered by implicit control is that the decision is not restricted to prefixed schedules, but it can be taken any time new data from SCADA arrive making them more suitable for on-line control.

The main contributions of this paper are to show that:

  • thresholds-based rules for implicit control can be learned through an active learning approaches, analogously to the one used to implement Automated Machine Learning;
  • the active learning framework is well-suited for the implicit control setting: the lower dimensionality of the search space, compared to explicit control, substantially improves computational efficiency;
  • hydraulic simulation model can be replaced by a Deep Neural Network (DNN): the working assumption, experimentally investigated, is that SCADA data can be used to train and accurate DNN predicting the relevant outputs (i.e., energy and hydraulic feasibility) avoiding costs for the design, development, validation and execution of a “virtual twin” of the real-world water distribution network.

The overall system has been tested on a real-world water distribution network.

How to cite: Candelieri, A., Perego, R., Giordani, I., and Archetti, F.: Active learning of optimal controls for pump scheduling optimization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12610, 2021.

EGU21-12708 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Vulnerability and robustness of networked infrastructures: beyond typical graph-based measures

Andrea Ponti, Antonio Candelieri, and Francesco Archetti

The issue of vulnerability and robustness in networked systems can be addressed by several methods. The most widely used are based on a set of centrality and connectivity measures from network theory which basically relate vulnerability to the loss of efficiency caused by the removal of some nodes and edges. Another related view is given by the analysis of the spectra of the adjacency and Laplacian matrices of the graph associated to the networked system.

The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a new set of vulnerability metrics given by the distance between the probability distribution of node-node distances between the original network and that resulting from the removal of nodes/edges. Two such probabilistic measures have been analysed: Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergence and Wasserstein (WST) distance, aka the Earth-Mover distance: this name comes from its informal interpretation as the minimum energy cost of moving and transforming a pile of dirt in the shape of one probability distribution to the shape of the other distribution. The cost is quantified by the amount of dirt moved times the moving distance. The Wasserstein distance can be traced back to the works of Gaspard Monge in 1761 and Lev Kantorovich in 1942. Wasserstein distances are generally well defined and provide an interpretable distance metric between distributions. Computing Wasserstein distances requires in general the solution of a constrained linear optimization problem which is, when the support of the probability distributions is multidimensional, very large.

An advantage of the Wasserstein distance is that, under quite general conditions, it is a differentiable function of the parameters of the distributions which makes possible its use to assess the sensitivity of the network robustness to distributional perturbations. The computational results related to two real-life water distribution networks confirm that the value of the distances JS and WST is strongly related to the criticality of the removed edges. Both are more discriminating, at least for water distribution networks, than efficiency-based and spectral measures. A general methodological scheme has been developed connecting different modelling and computational elements, concepts and analysis tools, to create an analysis framework suitable for analysing robustness. This modelling and algorithmic framework can also support the analysis of other networked infrastructures among which power grids, gas distribution and transit networks.

How to cite: Ponti, A., Candelieri, A., and Archetti, F.: Vulnerability and robustness of networked infrastructures: beyond typical graph-based measures, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12708, 2021.

EGU21-5778 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Assessment of a Sand Spit Morphodynamics Under Extreme Flood Events

José Pinho, Isabel Iglesias, Willian Melo, Ana Bio, Paulo Avilez-Valente, José Vieira, Luisa Bastos, and Fernando Veloso-Gomes

Spits are landforms that present a complex morphology, which depends on currents, waves, sediment transport, tidal range and anthropic-induced changes. Their position and shape is subject to extreme events like flood river discharges and storms. They can also respond to processes that take place at larger time scales, as plate tectonics, sea level rise or even climatological patterns with teleconnections all over the world, as the well know North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is the case of the Douro river mouth sand spit located on the northern coast of Portugal. This naturally dynamic sand spit, which has moved landwards over the past decades, has caused frequent nuisance to navigation, affecting width and depth of the navigation channel. Therefore, a breakwater was constructed in an attempt to stabilise the sand spit and the estuary inlet.

Validated hydrodynamic numerical models (openTELEMAC-MASCARET and Delft3D) of the Douro river estuary have demonstrated ability to accurately describe the estuarine hydrodynamic patterns and water elevation under extreme flood conditions. Model results showed that for higher river flow discharges the sand spit is partially inundated.

In this work a morphodynamic model (Delft3D) of the estuary was implemented to assess both the morphodynamics of the sand spit under extreme events, including the effect of sea level rise due to climate change, and the variation of extreme water levels along the estuary due to spit erosional processes that can occur during flood events.

Preliminary results show that the sand spit will be locally eroded for the higher river flood discharges, forming a two-secondary-channels system, with one channel located near the breakwater’s southern extremity and the other, narrower, near the south bank. Associated with these two channels, two depositional bars will be formed in front of the channels at the coastal platform. However, the inner immersed sand spit will be suffering a sedimentation process for all of the simulated scenarios. This way, neither the river mouth discharge conditions nor the water levels inside the estuary will suffer significant changes according to the simulated scenarios.

These results will be complemented with further analyses considering the sediment size influence, tidal level, storm surge, sea level rise and river flood discharges.

Acknowledgements: To the Strategic Funding UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020 (FCT and ERDF) and to the project EsCo-Ensembles (PTDC/ECI-EGC/30877/2017, NORTE 2020, Portugal 2020, ERDF and FCT). The authors also want to acknowledge the data provided by EDP and IH.

How to cite: Pinho, J., Iglesias, I., Melo, W., Bio, A., Avilez-Valente, P., Vieira, J., Bastos, L., and Veloso-Gomes, F.: Assessment of a Sand Spit Morphodynamics Under Extreme Flood Events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5778, 2021.

The spatial altimetry provides an important amount of water surface height data from multi-missions satellites (especially Jason-3, Sentinel-3A/B and the forthcoming NASA-CNES SWOT mission). To exploit at best the potential of spatial altimetry, the present study proposes on the derivation of a model adapted to spatial observations scale; a diffusive-wave type model but adapted to a double scale [1].

Moreover, Green-like kernel can be employed to derived covariance operators, therefore they may provide an approximation of the covariance kernel of the background error in Variational Data Assimilation processes. Following the derivation of the aforementioned original flow model, we present the derivation of a Green kernel which provides an approximation of the covariance kernel of the background error for the bathymetry (i.e. the control variable) [2].

This approximation of the covariance kernel is used to infer the bathymetry in the classical Saint-Venant’s (Shallow-Water) equations with better accuracy and faster convergence than if not introducing an adequate covariance operator [3].

Moreover, this Green kernel helps to analyze the sensitivity of the double-scale diffusive waves (or even the Saint-Venant’s equations) with respect to the bathymetry.

Numerical results are analyzed on real like datasets (derived from measurements of the Rio Negro, Amazonia basin).

The double-scale diffusive wave provide more accurate results than the classical version. Next, in terms of inversions, the derived physically-based covariance operators enable to improve the inferences, compared to the usual exponential one.

[1] T. Malou, J. Monnier "Double-scale diffusive wave equations dedicated to spatial river observations". In prep.

[2] T. Malou, J. Monnier "Physically-based covariance kernel for variational data assimilation in spatial hydrology". In prep.

[3] K. Larnier, J. Monnier, P.-A. Garambois, J. Verley. "River discharge and bathymetry estimations from SWOT altimetry measurements". Inv. Pb. Sc. Eng (2020).

How to cite: Malou, T. and Monnier, J.: Double-scale diffusive wave model dedicated to spatial river observation and associated covariance kernel for variational data assimilation , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10355, 2021.

EGU21-4904 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Quantifying the Effects of Urbanization on Floods for two adjacent basins in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, China.

Dandan Liu, Yiheng Chen, Jinhui Huang, and Xiaogang Shi

With the accelerating urbanization in developing countries, the threats of extreme rainfall and flood events are increasing. The impact of flood disasters severely threatens the safety of cities with a huge population. In order to quantitatively study the impact of urbanization development on urban floods, the hydrological characteristics of two adjacent basins will be analyzed and compared in this study -- Shenzhen, China with rapid urbanization in the past 40 years, and Hong Kong, China that was already urbanized.

The methods of this study mainly include the following two points. Firstly, in order to clarify the urbanization development process of the study regions, the geospatial database of surface impervious area of two adjacent basins from 1986 to 2018 was obtained in this study. In addition, this study intends to predict the impervious area of the study area in the future years through urban planning. The prediction method is based on adaptive cell deep learning analysis method. Secondly, in order to simulate the waterlogging situation in the two regions, this study intends to select specific flood events to establish and calibrate the SWMM model. By changing the impervious area of the two regions, hydrological parameters such as surface runoff and sensitivity under different scenarios can be obtained.

After model simulation, we will finally analyze the simulation results as follows: Firstly, the variation of runoff and flood peak with impervious area will be analyzed; Secondly, by comparing the simulation results of the two regions, the sensitivity of flood events to urbanization development will be evaluated; Finally, according to the predicted simulation results, the flood situation in the study area will be evaluated in the future years, which has a certain guiding significance for urban flood prevention.

How to cite: Liu, D., Chen, Y., Huang, J., and Shi, X.: Quantifying the Effects of Urbanization on Floods for two adjacent basins in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, China., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4904, 2021.

EGU21-8161 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

A modified MOD16 algorithm to estimate soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration in urban garden area

Jiawei Zhang, Han Chen, Jinhui Jeanne Huang, Edward McBean, Han Li, Zhiqing Lan, and Jun Jie Gao

Accurately estimate and map soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T) in urban woodland areas is great significance for precision irrigation, urban water resource allocation and management. However, customized dual-source models based on satellite imagery are lacking. This research, for the first time, developed a dual source approach to predict E and T in urban garden area. The method is improved from MOD16 algorithm, we advanced the MOD16 in following aspects: 1, an enhanced net radiant flux (Rn) and soil heat flux (G) calculation method is proposed; 2, The determination of vegetation canopy impedance couples into the impact of carbon dioxide emissions; 3, A physical mechanism-based β estimation method is proposed, to replace the empirical values in original model. Our model was test in 40 cloudless days based on 10 m Sentinel-2 imagery in Guiwan Garden area in Shenzhen city, southern of China. The Shuttleworth-Wallace, FAO-dual-Kc and Priestley-Taylor model were used to evaluate model performance, results suggest the modified MOD16 model successful produce and partition ET in city garden area, and outperformed than pervious MOD16 algorithm. The spatial distribution pattern demonstrate that E and T present obvious seasonal changes, with the range of 23-150 W/m2 for E and 31-186 W/m2 for T, proven the large amount water was lost through ET in urban garden area. Sensitivity analysis results show that the improved MOD16 model is more sensitive to vegetation index products and solar radiation, need to prioritize the accurate input of these two types of parameters. The modified MOD16 model significantly facilitate the accuracy of ET simulation in high-resolution, small-scale areas, provides a powerful tool to quantify the E and T in urban areas, and assessing the impact of climate change on the urban hydrological cycle.

How to cite: Zhang, J., Chen, H., Huang, J. J., McBean, E., Li, H., Lan, Z., and Gao, J. J.: A modified MOD16 algorithm to estimate soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration in urban garden area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8161, 2021.

EGU21-7782 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

The Convergence of IoT, Machine Learning, and Big Data for Advancing Flood Analytics Knowledge  

Vidya Samadi and Rakshit Pally

Floods are among the most destructive natural hazard that affect millions of people across the world leading to severe loss of life and damage to property, critical infrastructure, and agriculture. Internet of Things (IoTs), machine learning (ML), and Big Data are exceptionally valuable tools for collecting the catastrophic readiness and countless actionable data. The aim of this presentation is to introduce Flood Analytics Information System (FAIS) as a data gathering and analytics system.  FAIS application is smartly designed to integrate crowd intelligence, ML, and natural language processing of tweets to provide warning with the aim to improve flood situational awareness and risk assessment. FAIS has been Beta tested during major hurricane events in US where successive storms made extensive damage and disruption. The prototype successfully identifies a dynamic set of at-risk locations/communities using the USGS river gauge height readings and geotagged tweets intersected with watershed boundary. The list of prioritized locations can be updated, as the river monitoring system and condition change over time (typically every 15 minutes).  The prototype also performs flood frequency analysis (FFA) using various probability distributions with the associated uncertainty estimation to assist engineers in designing safe structures. This presentation will discuss about the FAIS functionalities and real-time implementation of the prototype across south and southeast USA. This research is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF).

How to cite: Samadi, V. and Pally, R.: The Convergence of IoT, Machine Learning, and Big Data for Advancing Flood Analytics Knowledge  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7782, 2021.

EGU21-8115 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Pathway to Encapsulate Water Quality Models as Cloud Computing Services and Couple with Environmental DSS for Managing Urban River Water Quality

Tianrui Pang, Jiping Jiang, Fengyuan Zhang, Harsh Yadav, Yunlei Men, Peng Wang, and Yi Zheng

In the era of smart city, developing environmental decision support system (EDSS) integrated with monitoring, modelling, planning and control for smart management of urban river water quality has been widely accepted and implemented around the world. Construction and coupling localized water quality models, such as popular WASP and EFDC by USEPA, to meet different management requirements are fundamental for the surface water EDSS development. However, few reported the technique coupling the advanced version of WASP program with EDSS platform. 

Traditional pathway of EDSS integrations or model coupling, e.g. database-oriented interaction, are non-modular, with low efficiency of share and reuse, and difficult for system updating. With the development of cloud computing and web services, the service-oriented design are the future trends of model coupling.

In this paper, a generic interface/module interacting with WASP V7.5 program is developed and the technical route of tightly coupling is proposed. The web service encapsulation of localized WASP models and advanced cloud computing services are implemented with the help of OpenGMS framework and SaaS (software as services) pattern. To meet the basic requirements of urban water quality management, the water assimilative capacity allocation and pollution load reduction planning are work out by the cloud computing services, which achieves operational running of EDSS.

The study area is located in Maozhou River Basin, an urban river in Shenzhen, China. According to the national water environment code and regulations, COD (chemical oxygen demand) and NH3-N (ammonia nitrogen) are set as the ending point for supervision and the corresponding WASP model of Maozhou River is constructed and calibrated by historical field data. The computing components and web-services are integrated into the comprehensive water quality management platform of Maozhou River through the model configuration and controlling data parameterization. One version of the Maozhou River EDSS has been deployed and is online on the Shenzhen ecological and environmental intelligent management and control center since January, 2021.

Along with WASP, service-oriented encapsulating of EFDC and SWMM based computing components for particular management purposes are also implemented based on the same technique route since both of them are developed by USEPA with similar inputs and outputs. The technology of model coupling and platform integration mentioned in this paper provides a valuable paradigm for linking other environment models into specific management business. Under the proposed technical pathway, the interaction of model interface between computation engine and system business layer can be easily updated along with the changes of management requirements. It provides the merits of rapidly development, easily deployment and maintenance.

How to cite: Pang, T., Jiang, J., Zhang, F., Yadav, H., Men, Y., Wang, P., and Zheng, Y.: Pathway to Encapsulate Water Quality Models as Cloud Computing Services and Couple with Environmental DSS for Managing Urban River Water Quality, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8115, 2021.

EGU21-13909 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

GeoLinkage: a GRASS-GIS plugin to integrate surface waters and groundwater in WEAP-MODFLOW models

Felipe Troncoso, Nancy Hitschfeld, Pedro Sanzana, Francisco Suárez, and José Muñoz

Water resources management requires specialized computer tools that allow explicit integration of surface and groundwater fluxes, which generally have domains with different spatial discretization. On one hand, a surface hydrological domain, D1, is typically segmented in sub-basins, elevation contour bands or hydrological response units. These elements usually are represented by grids, triangles, or simple irregular polygons. In D1, the elements are connected to each other and incorporated into a drainage network that defines a surface topology, t1. On the other hand, an aquifer domain, D2, is organized in hydrogeological units, which can be represented by geometrical elements such as grids, triangulations, Voronoi or Quadratree diagrams. In D2, a regular connection is typically associated to structured meshes that defines a groundwater topology, t2. We present a new tool called GeoLinkage (v.geolinkage) that creates an ESRI-format linkage shapefile of the new surface-groundwater topology, t1-2. This python-based open-source tool has a graphical user interface (GUI) as an add-on for GRASS-GIS, which was constructed using Pygrass and Flopy libraries. It was developed to be used in WEAP-MODFLOV models, but it can also be used with other water resources management models. GeoLinkage allows processing models with reasonable computation times, which facilitates scenario analysis. It calculates the locations of the surface element geometries (nodes and arcs) using the GRASS platform and connects them to each element of a structured mesh in MODFLOW models. GeoLinkage was applied to obtain groundwater levels and coverage of water demand in Azapa Valley, a hyper-arid zone in the desert of Chile, where a grid of 70.305 cells and six fields with detailed geometry were processed in only 12 min.

How to cite: Troncoso, F., Hitschfeld, N., Sanzana, P., Suárez, F., and Muñoz, J.: GeoLinkage: a GRASS-GIS plugin to integrate surface waters and groundwater in WEAP-MODFLOW models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13909, 2021.

EGU21-4221 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1 | Highlight

Community Mapping Supports Comprehensive Urban Flood Modeling for Flood Risk Management in a Data-Scarce Environment

Louise Petersson, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Govert Verhoeven, Zoran Kapelan, Innocent Maholi, and Hessel Winsemius

We demonstrate a framework for urban flood modeling with community mapped data, particularly suited for flood risk management in data-scarce environments. The framework comprises three principal stages: data acquisition with survey design and quality assurance, model development and model implementation for flood prediction. We demonstrate that data acquisition based on community mapping can be affordable, comprehensible, quality assured and open source, making it applicable in resource-strained contexts. The framework was demonstrated and validated on a case study in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The results obtained show that the community mapped data supports flood modeling on a level of detail that is currently inaccessible in many parts of the world. The results obtained also show that the community mapping approach is appropriate for datasets that do not require extensive training, such as flood extent surveys where it is possible to cross-validate the quality of reports given a suitable number and density of data points. More technically advanced features such as dimensions of urban drainage system elements still require trained mappers to create data of sufficient quality. This type of mapping can, however, now be performed in new contexts thanks to the development of smartphones. Future research is suggested to explore how community mapping can become an institutionalized practice to fill in important gaps in data-scarce environments.

How to cite: Petersson, L., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., Verhoeven, G., Kapelan, Z., Maholi, I., and Winsemius, H.: Community Mapping Supports Comprehensive Urban Flood Modeling for Flood Risk Management in a Data-Scarce Environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4221, 2021.

EGU21-13285 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1 | Highlight

CrowdWater: How well can citizens observe water levels and other hydrological variables using a smartphone app?

Jan Seibert, Simon Etter, Barbara Strobl, Sara Blanco, Mirjam Scheller, Franziska Schwarzenbach, and Ilja van Meerveld

Citizen science observations are potentially useful to complement existing monitoring networks. This is also the case in hydrology, where we often lack spatially distributed observations. Engaging the public might help to overcome the lack of data in hydrology. So far, most hydrological citizen science projects have been based on the use of different instruments or installations. For stream level observations, a staff gauge is installed in the river but it is difficult to scale this type of citizen science approach to a large number of sites because these gauges cannot be installed everywhere (or by everyone). Here, we present an evaluation of the CrowdWater smartphone app that allows the collection of hydrological data without any physical installation or specialized instruments. With the help of a free app, citizens can report the stream level, soil moisture conditions, the presence of water in temporary streams, plastic pollution in streams and on streambanks, as well as general information on streams. The approach is similar to geocaching, with the difference that instead of finding treasures, hydrological measurement sites are set up. These sites can be found by the initiator or other citizen scientists to take additional measurements at a later time. For the water level measurements, a virtual staff gauge approach is used instead of a physical staff gauge. A picture of a staff gauge is digitally inserted into a photo of a stream bank or a bridge pillar and serves as a reference of the water level. During a subsequent field visit, the stream level is compared to the virtual staff gauge on the first picture. In this presentation, we discuss how well the water level class observations agreed with measured stream levels, and in which months and during which flow conditions citizens submitted their stream level observations. We also highlight methods to ensure data quality, and illustrate how these water level data can be used in hydrological model calibration. We also give an update on new activities in the CrowdWater project.

How to cite: Seibert, J., Etter, S., Strobl, B., Blanco, S., Scheller, M., Schwarzenbach, F., and van Meerveld, I.: CrowdWater: How well can citizens observe water levels and other hydrological variables using a smartphone app?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13285, 2021.

EGU21-7834 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

Simple-to-use paper microfluidic devices for monitoring contaminants in fresh water

Mila Sari, Bongkot Ngamsom, Alexander Iles, Jeanette Rotchell, Will Mayes, Mark Lorch, Nicole Pamme, and Samantha Richardson

Monitoring water quality traditionally involves experts collecting samples for laboratory-based analysis; a time consuming, costly process.1 It has been recognised that frequent measurements are needed to understand patterns and pressures of changing contaminant concentrations.2 One approach empowers citizens with simple tools, enabling them to monitor water quality regularly.3 Generally, citizen-led sampling has involved volunteers collecting samples for later analysis by experts. We describe an approach comprising of a series of paper-based sensors, that when coupled with a smartphone, enable citizens to participate in simultaneous collection of samples and generation of onsite measurements.

We developed paper microfluidic analytical devices (PADs) for the detection of contaminants (nutrients, metals, organics). All devices were designed to be simple to use with rapid colour readout achieved with minimal user input. Filter paper was patterned with hydrophobic wax barriers to create reaction zones. Within these zones, chemical reagents were stored, that would, upon sample addition, change colour proportionally to the analyte concentration. After addition and drying of reagents, devices were sealed by lamination with a hole cut to allow for sample entry. For water analysis, the devices were placed directly onto the water sample and incubated for a short time (< 10 min). The coloured reaction products were visible to the naked eye; more precise quantification was achieved by capturing a digital image followed by colour intensity analysis.

We adapted spectroscopic determination chemistry, so that it was suitable for use on a portable paper platform; successfully developing separate devices for phosphate (LOD 3 mg L-1), copper (LOD 2 mg L-1), chromium (LOD 0.5 mg L-1), nickel (LOD 3 mg L-1), and triclosan (LOD 3 mg L-1). To detect very low concentrations (>µg L-1) of contaminants (metals, organics) usually found in the environment, we aim to combine the simple paper-based readout with an in-field pre-concentration step. By incorporating an electrospun membrane with a simple filtration system, adsorption of copper ions on the membrane surface was demonstrated. Coupling such a pre-concentration method with colour-generating paper readout devices, would potentially provide a simple means for on-site monitoring at environmentally relevant levels.

Citizen-led sampling was undertaken to monitor phosphates in freshwater across the Humber region (UK), Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Devices featured six reaction zones, two control zones and internal calibration (coloured squares). Results were captured using a custom-developed app, RiverDIP (Natural Apptitude) that also recorded location, turbidity (photos), GPS, date, time and waterbody. Submitted data were analysed, and subsequently plotted on an online map, allowing volunteers to see all sampling efforts with > 300 results returned so far. Engagement with volunteers was investigated to empower people by informing them of sources of domestic pollution.

In summary, we have developed a series of simple-to-use paper-based devices to detect water contaminants and demonstrated the feasibility of citizen-led sampling to monitor water quality. Future work will involve further development towards a system for simple onsite pre-concentration and monitoring of heavy metals involving volunteers in the sampling process.

 

  • 1.J. Environ. Manage.,87 2008, 639-648.
  • 2.Sens., 5, 2005, 4-37.
  • 3.Front. Ecol. Environ.,10, 2012, 298-304.

How to cite: Sari, M., Ngamsom, B., Iles, A., Rotchell, J., Mayes, W., Lorch, M., Pamme, N., and Richardson, S.: Simple-to-use paper microfluidic devices for monitoring contaminants in fresh water, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7834, 2021.

EGU21-12426 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

A low-cost wireless sensor network for citizen science water quality monitoring

Elena von Benzon, Elizabeth Bagshaw, Michael Prior-Jones, Isaac Sobey, Rupert Perkins, and Simon Browning

We present the first trial of an accurate, low-cost wireless sensor, the ‘Hydrobean’, and base station designed for use by citizen scientists in catchment water quality monitoring. This novel wireless sensor network addresses key concerns identified with current volunteer monitoring programmes, including temporal discontinuity and insufficient data quality. Hydrobean continuously measures electrical conductivity, temperature and pressure and wirelessly transmits these data to an online portal for observation and download by users. These parameters can be used to assess catchment water quality status, with excursions from baseline conditions detected in real time at high temporal resolution. Citizen scientists have an increasingly important role to play in enhancing our scientific understanding of catchment water quality, but their contribution has so far been limited by barriers to access suitable monitoring equipment. Traditional grab sampling techniques result in key contamination incidents being missed and trend analysis limited as samples are analysed discretely, typically on a weekly or monthly basis. Additionally, the quality of data obtained from basic chemical test kits commonly used by citizen scientists does not meet the requirements of many data users. This research explores the role of low-cost wireless sensor networks in advancing the potential of citizen scientists in monitoring catchment water quality. Monitoring equipment available to citizen scientists generally needs to be low cost, so is unlikely to rival professional standard monitoring techniques in the foreseeable future. However, reliable, low-cost sensors which enable continuous, real-time monitoring do now exist for a limited range of water quality parameters and have been used in the development of the wireless sensor network presented here. Critically, Hydrobean and its base station are low cost, low maintenance, portable and robust in order to meet the requirements of community monitoring programmes. Ultimately, a model will be integrated into the real-time analysis of data collected by the wireless sensor network to predict when and where contamination incidents are expected to be affecting catchment water quality. We report initial field results of the Hydrobean wireless sensor network and will discuss ways in which the basic design can be improved in future versions. 

How to cite: von Benzon, E., Bagshaw, E., Prior-Jones, M., Sobey, I., Perkins, R., and Browning, S.: A low-cost wireless sensor network for citizen science water quality monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12426, 2021.

EGU21-4825 | vPICO presentations | HS3.1

How reliable are crowd-sourced data in hydrology? Lessons learned from a citizen science experiment

Julian Klaus, David Hannah, and Kwok Pan Chun

Crowd-sourcing of hydrological data with volunteering citizen scientists has the potential to overcome severe data limitations in space and time. However, several aspects on the reliability, quality, and value of crowd-sourced data are under debate. In this contribution, we present results of a citizen science experiments involving 300 high school students in Luxembourg. The students relied on self-build rainfall collectors to sample precipitation over selected 24-hour periods covering Luxembourg at national scale (~2500 km2) and subsequently measured the amount. Following data collection and archiving, we evaluated the quality of the data by benchmarking the crowd-sourced values to data collected with a dense network of ~50 tipping buckets across the country. This was done by kriging both data sets. We found that the aerial precipitation at national scale derived from both data sort was consistent, however with a rather systematic bias between the two data sources. The bias was in the same range as the bias between tipping bucket data and average amounts from several measurements with a self-build sampler at the same location. The students’ data showed a clearly higher variance compared to the national data but was still able to resolve finer scale variations compared to the national network. We observed the highest differences between both data sets in urban settings. Here, it is not clear if the student’s data was less robust when acquired in an urban setting or if the difference arose from urban rainfall processes that were not observed by the national network, where stations are placed at open sites. With our proposed experiment and the statistical data analysis, we were able to quality control crowd-sourced precipitation data and showed that they are reliable. This increases confidence for many studies relying on similar samplers. Yet, some samples of individuals showed a rather high deviation from the kriged national network, showing that sampling with only a few citizen observers could lead to higher uncertainty in the data. While some limitations exist, we showed that data from citizens are of high quality and provide valuable information for hydrological studies.

How to cite: Klaus, J., Hannah, D., and Chun, K. P.: How reliable are crowd-sourced data in hydrology? Lessons learned from a citizen science experiment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4825, 2021.

HS3.3 – Advanced geostatistics for water, earth and environmental sciences & Spatio-temporal and/or (geo) statistical analysis of hydrological events, floods, extremes, and related hazards

In the beginning of the 2000's [1], multiple-point statistics (MPS) was introduced as a novel geostatistical approach to explore the variability of natural phenomena in a realistic way by observing and simulating data patterns, sensibly improving the preservation of connectivity and shape of the modeled structures.

A usual requirement for MPS is the presence of complete and representative training images (TI), showing clear and possibly redundant examples of the studied structures. But in the everyday practice, this information is often partially or scarcely available, strongly limiting the use of MPS.

In this presentation we start with an overview of MPS strategies proposed to overcome training data limitations. We consider different examples of multisite rain-gauge networks containing sparse data gaps, with the goal of estimating the missing data, using the same incomplete dataset as TI [2]. Another considered study case regards the use of 2D training images of geological outcrops used to reconstruct a 3D volume of fluvioglacial deposits [3].

We then consider a common problem in hydroclimatological studies: the bias correction of weather radar images with ground rainfall measurements. This is a typical no-TI problem where there is no example of unbiased grid image to train MPS. In this case, we propose a novel pattern-to-point approach, where we create a catalog of local grid patterns, each one associated to a rainfall measurement. This way the MPS algorithm 1) selects ungauged locations, 2) searches similar grid patterns in the catalog, and 3) projects the linked historical ground measurements at the ungauged locations.

From early results, this technique seems to recover hidden spatial patterns which correct the highly non-linear bias by extracting information from the pattern-to-point catalog. This is a first step for MPS towards the use of TIs integrating variables of different dimensionality, opening a new methodological path for future research.

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

[1] Strebelle, S. "Conditional simulation of complex geological structures using multiple-point statistics." Mathematical geology 34.1 (2002): 1-21.

[2] Oriani, F. et al. "Missing data imputation for multisite rainfall networks: a comparison between geostatistical interpolation and pattern-based estimation on different terrain types." Journal of Hydrometeorology 21.10 (2020): 2325-2341.

[3] Kessler, T. et al. "Modeling finescale geological heterogeneity—examples of sand lenses in tills." Groundwater 51.5 (2013): 692-705.

How to cite: Oriani, F. and Mariethoz, G.: Advanced MPS to explore unobserved heterogeneity: Incomplete training images, 2D to 3D, and pattern-to-point data merging., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7679, 2021.

Despite the importance of seasonality of extreme precipitation events to stormwater management, there are limited number of studies examining seasonality of daily and monthly precipitation extremes over the contiguous United States. In this study, a circular statistical method was used for spatio-temporal assessment of seasonality of daily and monthly precipitation extremes and their teleconnections with large-scale climate patterns over the contiguous United States. Historic precipitation time series over the period of 64 years (1951–2014) for 1108 sites was used for the analysis. Calendar dates for extreme precipitation were used to characterize seasonality within a circular statistics framework which includes indices reflecting the mean date and variability of occurrence of extreme events. The rainfall seasonality during negative and positive phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were also investigated. Results showed that extreme precipitation seasonality varied across the contiguous United States with distinct spatial pattern of seasonality (strong seasonality) in the western and mid-western regions and mixed spatial pattern in the eastern region. In addition, extreme precipitation seasonality during negative and positive phases of three climate indices revealed that large-scale climate variabilities have strong influence on the mean date of occurrence of extreme precipitation but generally weak influence on the strength of seasonality in the contiguous United States. Results from our study might be helpful for sustainable water resource management, flood risk mitigation, and prediction of future precipitation seasonality.

 

How to cite: Dhakal, N., Tharu, B., and Aljoda, A.: Seasonality of precipitation extremes and their connections with large-scale climate patterns over the contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-447, 2021.

This study is intended to carry out the spatial mapping with ordinary Kriging (OK) of regional point Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) estimates for the sake of approximation and visualization at ungauged location. Precipitation IDF estimates that offer us valuable information about the frequency of occurrence of extreme events corresponding to different durations and intensities are derived through the application of robust and efficient regional frequency analysis (RFA) based on L-moment algorithm. IDF curves for Baden Wrttemberg (BW) are obtained from the long historical record of daily and hourly annual maximum precipitation series (AMS) provided by German Weather Service from 1960-2020 and 1949-2020 respectively under the assumption of stationarity. One of the widely used Gumbel (type 1)  distribution is applied for IDF analysis because of its suitability for modeling maxima. The uncertainty in IDF curves is determined by the bootstrap method and are revealed in the form of the prediction and confidence interval for each specific time duration on graph. Five metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R²), mean square error (MSE), Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) are used to assess the performance of the employed IDF equation. The coefficients of 3-parameteric non-linear IDF equation is determined for various recurrence interval by means of Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm (LMA), also referred to as damped least square (DLS) method. The estimated coefficients vary from location to location but are insensitive to duration. After successfully determining the IDF parameters for the same return period, parametric contour or isopluvial maps can be generated using OK as an interpolation tool with the intention to provide estimates at ungauged locations. These estimated regional coefficients of IDF curve are then fed to the empirical intensity frequency equation that may serve to estimate rainfall intensity for design purposes for all ungauged sites. The outcomes of this research contribute to the construction of IDF-based design criteria for water projects in ungauged sites located anywhere in the state of BW.

In conclusion, we conducted IDF analysis for the entire state of BW as it is considered to be more demanding due to the increased impact of climate change on the intensification of hydrological cycle as well as the expansion of urban areas rendering watershed less penetrable to rainfall and run-off, the better understanding of spatial heterogeneity of intense rainfall patterns for the proposed domain.

How to cite: Amin, B. and Bárdossy, A.: Interpolation of Regionalized Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Estimates based on the observed precipitation data of Baden Wurttemberg (BW), Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12583, 2021.

EGU21-554 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Influence of urban areas on surface water loss across USA watersheds

Irene Palazzoli, Alberto Montanari, and Serena Ceola

Human activities are one of the factors responsible for the rapid depletion of surface water resources. The projected growth of urban population, along with the associated process of urban sprawl, is expected to further increase anthropogenic surface water withdrawals. Although this scenario is threatening water security globally, highlighting the need for efficient and sustainable strategies of water and urbanization management, a spatially explicit analysis of the interaction between urban areas and surface water loss is still missing. In this analysis we use maps of urban areas and locations of surface water loss derived from remote sensing data across the watersheds in the United States to understand the spatial influence of human settlements on surface water depletion. By examining the distribution of the frequency of surface water loss locations as a function of distance from urban areas we find that in most of the basins as well as in the whole study area the depletion of surface water resources is higher close to human settlements. Therefore, we define a probabilistic distance-decay model to reproduce the observed decrease in surface water loss frequency and we observe that in 96% of the study area our model is effectively able to predict the observed decrease in surface water loss locations with distance from urban areas at the basin level (Pearson’s correlation coefficient r = 0.5). The same result is found for the whole study area as well (r = 0.997). Finally, we test the reliability of the distance-decay model through the comparison between the observed distance from urban areas at which on average surface water loss occurs and the theoretical value derived from the model evaluated for each basin and for the whole study area. The strong correlation (coefficient of determination R2 = 0.88) between the observed and theoretical distances proves that our probabilistic model applied across the U.S. represents a robust tool that can support the identification and the prediction of surface water depletion and can be possibly applied to other study areas.

How to cite: Palazzoli, I., Montanari, A., and Ceola, S.: Influence of urban areas on surface water loss across USA watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-554, 2021.

EGU21-3331 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Extreme snow loads in Austria

Michael Winkler and Harald Schellander

In the framework of European standards for structural design, acceptable snow loads on constructions and buildings are based on maps for sk, the “characteristic snow load on the ground” with an average reoccurrence time of 50 years. The Austrian snow load standard is built on a very detailed zoning map from 2006, but underlying snow data is from the 1980s.

An updated snow load map for Austria is presented. It is based on 870 snow depth records with at least 30 years of regular daily observations between 1960 and 2019. ΔSNOW, a novel snow model, was used to simulate respective snow loads. Extreme value theory and generalized additive models led to a smooth map of extreme snow loads at 50x50m resolution. The methods are transparently published, reproducible and, thus, applicable in other regions as well.

The map can reasonably assign sk values up to 2000m altitude, a significant advantage compared to actual standards which are only valid up to 1500m. New insights in the spatial picture of extreme snow loads are provided and the quadratic altitude-sk-relation, which is widely used in snow load standards, is evaluated. Validation with station data reveals a higher accuracy for the presented map than for the currently used snow load map. The number of outliers, i.d. stations with significantly higher or lower sk values than the snow load maps would suggest, could be decreased in comparison with the actual standard. However, some problematic places remain, mostly in topographically and climatologically highly complex areas. In case the presented map will become a new base for future Austrian standards, those places will have to be treated in a special way.

How to cite: Winkler, M. and Schellander, H.: Extreme snow loads in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3331, 2021.

EGU21-3088 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Space-Time Analysis of Precipitation Reanalysis Data for the Island of Crete using Gaussian Anamorphosis with Hermite Polynomials

Vasiliki D. Agou, Andreas Pavlides, and Dionissios T. Hristopulos

Societies seek to ensure sustainable development in the face of climate change, population increase, and increased demands for natural resources. Understanding, modeling, and forecasting the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation are central to this effort [1-3]. Spatiotemporal models of precipitation with global validity are not available. This is due to the non-Gaussian distribution of precipitation as well as its intermittent nature and strong dependence on the geographic location and the space-time scales analyzed.  Herein we investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation on a Mediterranean island using geostatistical methods. 

We use ERA5 reanalysis precipitation products from the Copernicus Climate Change Service [4].  The dataset includes 31980 values of monthly precipitation height (mm) for a period of 492 consecutive months (January 1979 to December 2019) at the nodes of a 5 × 13 spatial grid that covers the island of Crete (Greece). This results in an average spatial resolution of approximately 0.28 degrees (corresponding to an approximate grid cell size of 31 km).  

We construct a spatial model of monthly precipitation using Gaussian anamorphosis (GA). GA employs nonlinear transformations to normalize the probability distribution of the data. It is extensively used in various environmental applications [5-6].  The methodology that we follow involves (i) normalizing the precipitation data per month using GA with Hermite polynomials, (ii) estimating spatial correlations and fitting them to the Spartan variogram family [6], (iii) ordinary kriging (OK) of the normalized data in order to generate precipitation estimates on a denser map grid, and (iv) application of the inverse GA transform to generate monthly precipitation maps. We also use cross-validation analysis to determine the kriging interpolation performance, first using the untransformed precipitation data and then the Hermite-polynomial GA approach outlined above. We find that Hermite-polynomial GA significantly improves the cross-validation measures.

 

Keywords: Gaussian anamorphosis, Hermite polynomials, Mediterranean island, non-Gaussian, ordinary kriging, Spartan variogram

 

References

1. D. Allard, and M. Bourotte, 2015. Disaggregating daily precipitations into hourly values with a transformed censored latent Gaussian process. Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess, 29(2), pp. 453– 462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0913-4.

2. A. Baxevani, and J. Lennartsson, 2015. A spatiotemporal precipitation generator based on a censored latent Gaussian field, Water Resources Research, 51(6), 4338–4358. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016455.

3. C. Lussana, T. N. Nipen, I. A. Seierstad, and C. A. Elo, 2020. Ensemble-based statistical interpolation with Gaussian anamorphosis for the spatial analysis of precipitation. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1–43. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-20.

4. C3S, C. C. C. S., 2018. ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate. Data retrieved from: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home.

5. N. Cressie, 1993. Spatial Statistics. John Wiley and Sons, New York.

6. D. T. Hristopulos, 2020. Random Fields for Spatial Data Modeling. Springer Netherlands, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-024-1918-4.

How to cite: Agou, V. D., Pavlides, A., and Hristopulos, D. T.: Space-Time Analysis of Precipitation Reanalysis Data for the Island of Crete using Gaussian Anamorphosis with Hermite Polynomials, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3088, 2021.

EGU21-4640 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Stochastic analysis of the spatial stochastic structure of precipitation in the island of Crete, Greece

Olianna Akoumianaki, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Emmanouil Varouchakis, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

In the last few years, the island of Crete (Greece - Eastern Mediterranean) has been affected by extreme events. In recent decades, hydrometeorological processes in the island of Crete are monitored by an extensive network of meteorological stations. Here we stochastically analyze the spatial stochastic structure of precipitation in the island by employing sophisticated statistical tools, as well as by analyzing a large database of daily precipitation records. We investigate fifty-eight rainfall stations scattered in the four prefectures of Crete, for the years 1974-2020. Descriptive statistical analysis of precipitation examines several temporal properties in the data, while correlation analysis of precipitation variability provides relations between stations and regions for spatial patterns identification. This work also investigates the precipitation variability by employing statistical tools such as the autocorrelation, autoregressive (seasonal) analysis, probability distribution function fitting, and climacogram calculation, i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. spatial and temporal scales, to identify statistical properties, temporal dependencies, potential similarities in the dependence structure and marginal probability distribution.

How to cite: Akoumianaki, O., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., Varouchakis, E., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Stochastic analysis of the spatial stochastic structure of precipitation in the island of Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4640, 2021.

Abstract

Most of the time series in nature are nonlinear and nonstationary affected by climate change particularly. It is inevitable that Taiwan has also experienced frequent drought events in recent years. However, drought events are natural disasters with no clear warnings and their influences are cumulative. The difficulty of detecting and analyzing the drought phenomenon remains. To deal with the above-mentioned problem, Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) is introduced to analyze the temperature and rainfall data from 1975~2018 in this study, which is a powerful method developed for the time-frequency analysis of nonlinear, nonstationary time series. This method can not only analyze the spatial locality and temporal locality of signals but also decompose the multiple-dimensional time series into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). By the set of IMFs, the meaningful instantaneous frequency and the trend of the signals can be observed. Considering stochastic and deterministic influences, to enhance the accuracy this study also reconstruct IMFs into two components, stochastic and deterministic, by the coefficient of auto-correlation.

In this study, the influences of temperature and precipitation on the drought events will be discussed. Furthermore, to decrease the significant impact of drought events, this study also attempts to forecast the occurrences of drought events in the short-term via the Artificial Neural Network technique. And, based on the CMIP5 model, this study also investigates the trend and variability of drought events and warming in different climatic scenarios.

 

Keywords: Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD), Intrinsic Mode Function(IMF), Drought

How to cite: Tang, C.-H. and Tsai, C. W.: Spatiotemporal Trend and Variability of Precipitation in Taiwan Based on Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10609, 2021.

EGU21-8462 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Active Moving Area Identification using Machine Learning. Case study: Ometepe Island, Nicaragua

Víctor Arcia, Gerald Corzo, and Heyddy Calderón

This study aims to propose the use of spatio-temporal Remote Sensing information and Machine learning techniques (ML) for Active Moving Area Identification and Forecast. Mass Movements are frequent in Central American countries, mainly due to the combined extreme hydro-meteorological events with the seismic activity and the characteristics of the geological formations in the region. Ometepe Island is located in Lake Cocibolca, Nicaragua; it has two volcanoes (one active) and Mass Movements happen quite often in the area, where many of them represent a big risk for the population. The triggering factors for these Mass Movements are mainly volcanic activity in conjunction with high and quick precipitations. The process of identification of a Mass Movement from Remote Sensing images is used first as a way to characterise the data, and then a lagged time step was used to evaluate the forecasting capabilities in a time window of precipitation forecast. For this, Remote Sensing was used to create the Active Moving Area Inventory, using InSAR technique with Sentinel-1 SAR images. SNAP software was used to locate occurrences of displacements in the island. This inventory was used to develop ML models that had Rainfall and Soil Moisture as dynamic variables; and DEM, Land Use, Geomorphology, and others as static variables. These were trained and evaluated using Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to detect occurrence of Displacement in a particular area of the island. The results were analysed performance-wise and compared to each other. The results of this methodology are a first step into a larger framework of spatiotemporal analysis for forecasting using Machine Learning.

How to cite: Arcia, V., Corzo, G., and Calderón, H.: Active Moving Area Identification using Machine Learning. Case study: Ometepe Island, Nicaragua, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8462, 2021.

EGU21-10982 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3 | Highlight

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Variability in NAO Rainfall Signatures

Harry West, Nevil Quinn, and Michael Horswell

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is often cited as the primary atmospheric-oceanic circulation or teleconnection influencing regional climate in Great Britain. As our ability to predict the NAO several months in advance improves, it is important that we also continue to develop our spatial and temporal understanding of the rainfall signatures which the circulation produces.

We present a novel application of spatial statistics to explore variability in monthly NAO rainfall signatures using a 5km gridded monthly Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) dataset. We first use the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to map spatially significant hot and cold spots (clusters of high/wet and low/dry SPI values) in average monthly rainfall signatures under NAO Positive and Negative conditions over the period 1900-2015. We then look across the record and explore the temporal variability in these signatures, in other words how often a location is in a significant spatial hot/cold spot (high/low SPI) at a monthly scale under NAO Positive/Negative conditions.

The two phases of the NAO are typically more distinctive in the winter months, with stronger and more variable NAO Index values. The average monthly SPI analysis reveals a north-west/south-east ‘spatial divide’ in rainfall response. NAO Positive phases result in a southerly North Atlantic Jet Stream bringing warm and wet conditions from the tropics, increasing rainfall particularly in the north-western regions. However, under NAO Negative phases which result in a northerly Jet Stream, much drier conditions in the north-west prevail. Meanwhile in the south-eastern regions under both NAO phases a weaker and opposite wet/dry signal is observed. This north-west/south-east ‘spatial divide’ is marked by the location of spatially extensive hot/cold spots. The Getis-Ord Gi* result identifies that the spatial pattern we detect in average winter rainfall is statistically significant. Looking across the record, this NW/SE opposing response appears to have a relatively high degree of spatio-temporal consistency. This suggests that there is a high probability that NAO Positive and Negative phases will result in this NW/SE statistically significant spatial pattern.

Even though the phases of the NAO in the summer months are less distinctive they still produce rainfall responses which are evident in the monthly average SPI. However, the spatiality in wet/dry conditions is more homogenous across the country. In other words the ‘spatial divide’ observed in winter is diluted in summer. As a result, the occurrence of significant hot/cold spots is more variable in space and time.

Our analysis demonstrates a novel application of the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic which allows for spatially significant patterns in the monthly SPI data to be mapped for each NAO phase. In winter months particularly, this analysis reveals statistically significant opposing rainfall responses, which appear to have long-term spatio-temporal consistency. This is important because as winter NAO forecasting skill improves, the findings of our research enable a more spatially reliable estimate of the likely impacts of NAO-influenced rainfall distribution.

How to cite: West, H., Quinn, N., and Horswell, M.: Mapping Spatio-Temporal Variability in NAO Rainfall Signatures, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10982, 2021.

EGU21-15381 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Modelling the effect of Flood Retention Ponds in Arachthos River (Arta, Greece)  

Georgios Rontiris, George Mitsopoulos, Elpida Panagiotatou, and Anastasios I. Stamou

Arachthos River is the largest river in Epirus and the 8th largest in Greece; it is 110 km long and its drainage area is 2209 km2. After emanating from Pindus mountains (near Metsovo), it enters into the Pournari Reservoir in Arta, passes through Arta and discharges into the Ambracian Gulf near Kommeno. Arachthos River prevents flooding of the city of Arta and supplies water to most of Epirus.

The design of flood protection works in Arachthos River is currently in progress; it is performed by a consortium of Greek Consulting Firms for the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transportation. In the present work, we examine the effect of Flood Retention Ponds on the inundation area and the subsequent flood risk for the city of Arta. The Flood Retention Ponds are constructed immediately downstream of the Pournari Reservoir and 5600 m upstream of the historic Bridge of Arta; their exact locations were identified after a preliminary study and field surveys. Firstly, we performed the design of the Flood Retention Ponds, based on international standards and specifications found in the international literature; then, we performed hydrodynamic calculations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) 1D/2D with and without the Flood Retention Ponds. Thirdly, we compared the calculations and the corresponding inundation areas and derive conclusions on the effect of Flood Retention Ponds.

 

 

How to cite: Rontiris, G., Mitsopoulos, G., Panagiotatou, E., and Stamou, A. I.: Modelling the effect of Flood Retention Ponds in Arachthos River (Arta, Greece)  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15381, 2021.

EGU21-1924 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Exploring stage-based flood frequency analysis for flood inundation mapping

Shobhit Singh, Somil Swarnkar, and Rajiv Sinha

Floods are one of the worst natural hazards around the globe and around 40% of all losses worldwide due to natural hazard have been caused by floods since 1980s. In India, more than 40 million hectares of area are affected by floods annually which makes it one of the worst affected country in the world. In particular, the Ganga river basin in northern India which hosts nearly half a billion people, is one of the worst floods affected regions in the country. The Ghaghra river is one of the highest discharge-carrying tributaries of the Ganga river, which originates from High Himalaya. Despite severally affected by floods each year, flood frequencies of the Ghaghra river are poorly understood, making it one of the least studied river basins in the Ganga basin. It is important to note that, like several other rivers in India, the Ghaghra also has several hydrological stations where only stage data is available, and therefore traditional flood frequency analysis using discharge data becomes difficult. In this work, we have performed flood frequency analysis using both stage and discharge dataset at three different gauge stations in the Ghaghra river basin to compare the results using statistical methods. The L-moment analysis is applied to assess the probability distribution for the flood frequency analysis. Further, we have used the TanDEM-x 90m digital elevation model (DEM) to map the flood inundation regions. Our results suggest the Weibull is statistically significant distribution for the discharge dataset. However, stage above danger level (SADL) follows General Pareto (GP3) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions. The quantile-quantile plot analysis suggests that the SADL probability distributions (GP3 and GEV) are closely following the theoretical probability distributions. However, the discharge distribution (Weibull) is showing a relatively weak corelation with the theoretical probability distribution. We further used the probability distribution to assess the SADL frequencies at 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The magnitudes of SADL at different return periods were then used to map the water inundation areas around different gauging stations. These inundation maps were cross-validated with the globally available flooding extent maps provided by Dartmouth flood observatory. Overall, this work exhibits a simple and novel technique to generate inundation maps around the gauging locations without using any sophisticated hydraulics models.

How to cite: Singh, S., Swarnkar, S., and Sinha, R.: Exploring stage-based flood frequency analysis for flood inundation mapping, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1924, 2021.

EGU21-10561 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Modelling Sediment Transport in the disastrous Flash Flood of November 2017 in Mandra (Attica, Greece)  

Vasiliki Sant, George Mitsopoulos, Aristides Bloutsos, and Anastasios Stamou

 

Abstract

The flash flood in Mandra on the 15th of November 2017 was the third most disastrous “November” flood in Attica; it was characterized by heavy sediment and debris transport that can be easily observed in Figure 1.

We applied the Hydrologic Engineering Center's-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) to model sediment transport using the Ackers-White sediment transport equation that is engraved in HEC-RAS to analyze sediment transport characteristics. The required input data were based on a limited number of available studies, which mainly include a survey performed by the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research in the coastal area of the Elefsis Bay where sediments were deposited after the catastrophic event. We compared the results of the model with calculations performed within a previous Thesis in 2018 using TELEMAC-2D and SISYPHE.

The present paper is based on the Diploma Thesis of the first author; it was performed within the project “National Network on Climate Change and its Impacts (CLIMPACT)” of the General Secretariat of Research and Technology.

 

Figure 1. The greater area of Mandra (a) before and (b) after the flood event

How to cite: Sant, V., Mitsopoulos, G., Bloutsos, A., and Stamou, A.: Modelling Sediment Transport in the disastrous Flash Flood of November 2017 in Mandra (Attica, Greece)  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10561, 2021.

EGU21-15041 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Modelling the disastrous Flash Flood of November 2017 in Mandra (Attica, Greece)  

Konstantinos Tsokanis, George Mitsopoulos, Aristides Bloutsos, and Anastasios I. Stamou

The region of Attica is characterized by a relatively large number of floods over a long period of time. The flash flood in Mandra on the 15th of November 2017 was the third most disastrous “November” flood in Attica; most of the population was affected by the flood (23 deaths and 24 people injured), while basements and ground floors of buildings in the town were seriously impacted.

The two main streams that pass through the town of Mandra are Soures and Agia Aikaterini, whose catchment area is equal to 23.0 and 22.0 km2, respectively. These streams are characterized by significant morphological changes due to the intensive construction activities in the greater area that resulted in a dramatic decrease of their available cross-sectional areas and the occurrence of floods even at low flow rates.

We applied the HEC-RAS 1D/2D to model the flash flood using a high resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) and topographic survey data, to obtain the most accurate representation of the area of Mandra. Moreover, we imported to the model all technical works, such as culverts and bridges that affect the flow. For the model calibration, we employed (a) videos, photographs, information from the local population and satellite images to determine the inundation area and (b) in situ measurements of the flood water depth, in various locations within the town of Mandra. The results of the model were compared with calculations performed within a previous Thesis in 2018 using TELEMAC-2D.

The present paper is based on the Master Thesis of the first author; it was performed within the project “National Network on Climate Change and its Impacts (CLIMPACT)” of the General Secretariat of Research and Technology.

How to cite: Tsokanis, K., Mitsopoulos, G., Bloutsos, A., and Stamou, A. I.: Modelling the disastrous Flash Flood of November 2017 in Mandra (Attica, Greece)  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15041, 2021.

EGU21-13870 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Spatiotemporal and Synchronous Monitoring of Drought in the Dry Corridor of Central America

Karel Aldrin Sanchez Hernandez, Gerald Augusto Corzo Perez, and German Ricardo Santos Granados

Drought is often conceptualised as an extreme weather event generated by anomalies in water resources availabilities. Understanding the behaviour and spatiotemporal distribution of drought events has become very important due to the possible teleconnections of drought propagation patterns. This understanding and if is possible representation of teleconnections between patterns could lead to better prediction and management of extreme events.
This study develops a methodology to monitor spatiotemporal drought events in the dry corridor of Central America using the drought index SPI and SPEI for the period 1981 to 2020.
This methodology consists of five stages. 1) collection and quality validation of the data sets used. 2) ERA5 and Observation datasets allow calibrating the precipitation and temperature values from historical gauge measurements. 3) Then, by the estimation and trend analysis of the drought index in different time scales (3, 6, 12 months) an initial baseline is defined. 4) Spatiotemporal association algorithms (based on computer vision) are used to characterise and monitoring the most extensive drought events. For this, the extreme and severe events (DI values below -1) threshold is estimated. 5)  Synchronic Integration between temporal patterns and spatial propagation is carried out to evaluate possible interactions or connections of drought events along the dry corridor of Central America. These results provide valuable information to evaluate the impacts on different sectors threatened by drought throughout the territory. This work presents preliminary results of an extended project looking at the dry corridor in Central America. 

How to cite: Sanchez Hernandez, K. A., Corzo Perez, G. A., and Santos Granados, G. R.: Spatiotemporal and Synchronous Monitoring of Drought in the Dry Corridor of Central America, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13870, 2021.

EGU21-3267 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Mapping and assessment of future land use change impacts on habitat quality in Lithuania

Paulo Pereira, Eduardo Gomes, Miguel Inacio, Katarzyna Bogdzevič, Donalda Karnauskaite, and Marius Kalinauskas

Abstract

Human activity is directly responsible for land use and land cover changes, affecting different ecosystem services. Thus, from the perspective of land use management is critical to project potential future land-use changes. This study aimed: (i) to detect possible changes in land-use structure in response to different four scenarios, namely: business as usual, urbanization, afforestation and land abandonment, and agricultural intensification scenario; and (ii) to measure the landscape habitat quality (an ecosystem services proxy) according to those projected futures. We selected as case study Lithuania due to the potential future increased human pressures on the landscape, and due to the high landscape value of this territory. The projected year was 2050, and we used the Cellular Automata method (applying the Dinamica EGO software) to project future land-use changes, and the InVEST model to assess the habitat quality. The land-use scenarios outcomes were validated using a fuzzy comparison function, and 80% of accuracy was achieved (comparing a simulated land use map of 2018, and the observed map for the same year). The results showed that the agricultural intensification scenario represents the greatest predicted landscape deterioration (from 0.71 in 2018 to 0.64). In the urbanization scenario, the highest landscape degradation prediction is identified around the most important cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipėda). In the opposite direction, the afforestation and land abandonment scenario show the highest improvement on the habitat quality, from 0.71 in 2018 to 0.74. 

Acknowledgements

“Lithuanian National Ecosystem Services Assessment and Mapping (LINESAM)” No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-01-0104 is funded by the European Social Fund according to the activity “Improvement of researchers’ qualification by implementing world-class R&D projects” of Measure No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712.

How to cite: Pereira, P., Gomes, E., Inacio, M., Bogdzevič, K., Karnauskaite, D., and Kalinauskas, M.: Mapping and assessment of future land use change impacts on habitat quality in Lithuania, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3267, 2021.

Chlorophyll a (CHLA) is a key water quality indicator for the eutrophication of Lake Erie. In order to better predict the concentration of CHLA, this study divided Lake Erie into the United States and Canada according to national boundaries, and found the input variables most relevant to CHLA. It is concluded that the United States is total phosphorus (TP), and Canada is total nitrogen (TN), and it is analyzed that industrial and agricultural pollution around Lake Erie has caused excessive TP and TN content. The study used machine learning methods to model the water quality of the two parts respectively. The data used in the modelling was obtained from the Canadian Environment and Climate Change Agency for Lake Erie between 2000 and 2018. Several neural network (NN) models and other machine learning methods are used for data analysis, including standard neural network (NN) models, simple recurrent neural network (SRN) models, backpropagation neural network (BPNN) models, jump connections neural network (JCNN) model, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). At the same time, the most suitable combinations of input variables for CHLA prediction was found. The United States was TP, TN, DO, and T, and Canada was TP, TN, PH, and DO. Combining this result with the environmental protection policies of the United States and Canada, recommendations for improving the pollutant content of Lake Erie were proposed. This will help reduce the risk of eutrophication in Lake Erie.

How to cite: Hu, X., Huang, J. J., and Li, Y.: Exploring the Relationship Between Chlorophyll-a and Other Water Quality Parameters by Using Machine Learning Methods:A Case Study of Lake Erie, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14933, 2021.

The multi-resolution approximation approach (MRA) [1] provides an efficient representation of Gaussian processes that scales beyond millions of observations. MRA leaves flexibility in the selection of covariance functions and allows to trade off computation time against prediction performance, depending on the selection of parameters. Recent work [2] has shown how MRA can be used for global spatiotemporal processes by integrating nonstationary covariance functions, where parameters vary over space and/or time following a kernel convolution approach. As such, MRA turns out to be a promising approach for geostatistical modelling of global spatiotemporal datasets, such as those coming from Earth observation satellites.

In this work, we show how MRA can be used for spatiotemporal analysis from a practical perspective. In the first part, we will discuss the influence of parameters (spatiotemporal shape of partitioning regions, the number of basis functions, and the number of partitioning levels) by analyzing a real world dataset. In the second part, we will present and discuss our implementation as an R package stmra[3]. We will demonstrate how traditional models as from the gstat package can be implemented efficiently with MRA, and how non-stationary models can be defined by users in a relatively simple way. 

[1] Katzfuss, M. (2017). A multi-resolution approximation for massive spatial datasets. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 112(517), 201-214

[2] Appel, M., & Pebesma, E. (2020). Spatiotemporal multi-resolution approximations for analyzing global environmental data. Spatial Statistics, 38, 100465.

[3] https://github.com/appelmar/stmra

How to cite: Appel, M. and Pebesma, E.: Implementation of geostatistical models for large spatiotemporal datasets using multi-resolution approximations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6585, 2021.

EGU21-15958 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

A new insight to daily precipitation estimation using different interpolation methods

Ehsan Modiri and András Bárdossy

The gridded interpolated daily precipitation data has a vast application in hydrometeorology. The fine resolution gridded precipitation gained terrestrial measurements is a tool to evaluate satellite, reanalysis, and radar-based gridded products. In this study, the daily time series of 1561 rain gauges over Iran for the period of 2003-20010 is used to compute 1 km * 1 km interpolated maps. The nearest neighborhood, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), External Drift Kriging (EDK), and Quantile Kriging (QK) interpolation methods are applied to compare their performance. Due to the large size of the interpolated region and different climates, six clusters for estimating the variogram function are determined. The distinct interpolation methods lead to different daily precipitation estimates, however in the same spatial resolution, OK is showed slightly better results with the mean RMSE and correlation equal to 2.355 and 0.766, respectively. Also, the spatially aggregated gridded maps illustrated that the interpolation methods only play a significant role in the fine resolutions than the coarser ones.

How to cite: Modiri, E. and Bárdossy, A.: A new insight to daily precipitation estimation using different interpolation methods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15958, 2021.

EGU21-14039 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Leveraging clustering and geostatistics to improve the modeling of sub-grid land-atmosphere interactions in Earth system models

Nathaniel Chaney, Laura Torres-Rojas, and Jason Simon

Multi-scale spatial heterogeneity over the land surface (meter to km scales) can play a pivotal role in the development of clouds and precipitation. To model this process within Earth system models (ESMs; ~100 km spatial resolution), sub-grid reduced-order modeling approaches are used. More specifically, state-of-the-art ESMs sub-divide the land surface of each grid cell into representative clusters (e.g., forest, lakes, and grasslands) that are learned a-priori from available high-resolution satellite remote sensing data (e.g., STRM, Landsat and Sentinel-2) via clustering. However, until recently, these clusters have remained spatially agnostic making it infeasible to infer spatial statistics of the modeled sub-grid heterogeneity over land that are required by the atmospheric model to ensure proper development of simulated convection (e.g., spatial correlation length of surface evaporation). This presentation will introduce an approach that leverages the precomputed cluster positions in space to construct an effective and efficient approach to assemble the experimental semivariogram from the sub-grid clusters within ESMs. As a proof of concept, we will show results by applying the novel method on sub-grid model output from the HydroBlocks land surface model over a 100 km domain centered at the Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma, United States. Furthermore, to illustrate the added-value that the experimental semivariograms will have towards improving the modeling of land-atmosphere interactions, we will illustrate the results from large-eddy simulations over the domain that show how differences in correlation length of surface fluxes can have, at times, a dramatic impact on the development of clouds and convection in the atmosphere. When implemented in ESMs, this new approach will make it possible to infer the modeled sub-grid spatial organization of the surface fluxes (e.g., sensible heat flux) per time step with negligible increases in computation expense.

How to cite: Chaney, N., Torres-Rojas, L., and Simon, J.: Leveraging clustering and geostatistics to improve the modeling of sub-grid land-atmosphere interactions in Earth system models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14039, 2021.

EGU21-15439 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Physiographic controls on pre-event hydrological states and hydrological response to extreme precipitation in the Alzette River Basin, Luxembourg

Carol Tamez Melendez, Judith Meyer, Audrey Douinot, Günter Blöschl, and Laurent Pfister

Flash flood events have caused massive damage on multiple occasions between 2016 and 2018 in several catchments in eastern Luxembourg. This region is very well known for being exposed to large-scale winter floods, commonly triggered by long-lasting advective precipitation events related to westerly atmospheric fluxes. However, flash floods - a truly exceptional phenomenon in this region - are have solely occurred in summer in response to intense convective precipitation events. Thus, because of the rare occurrence and local character of this type of events, the mechanisms eventually controlling a flash flood-type response of a catchment remains poorly understood.  

Here, we focus on four main objectives: i) the role that physiographic characteristics play on the spatial variability of pre-event hydrological states (as expressed via storage) across a set of 41 nested catchments located in the Sûre River basin (4,240 km2), Luxembourg, ii) the hydrological response to precipitation controlled by those pre-event hydrological states, iii) the responsivity (resistance) and elasticity (resilience) of the catchments to global change, and iv) the relation between water yields and the offsets from Budyko curve and its related energy limits.

The area of interest is not only characterised by a homogenous temperate oceanic climate but also by heterogeneous physiographical conditions and land use, which makes it ideal for this study. We used 8 years’ worth hydrological data (precipitation, discharge and potential evapotranspiration) to calculate the increments of the water balance and determine the maximum storage capacity and storage deficits. Second, we used the relationship between storage deficit and discharge to estimate total storage at a hypothetical nearly zero flow condition. Third, we compared the pre-hydrological states and event runoff ratios (Q/P) to the catchments’ physiographical conditions in order to link catchment’s sensitivity to storage metrics. We then assessed the responsivity and elasticity to climate and anthropogenic variations – as expressed through the PET/P and AET/P deviations from the Budyko curve and energy limits– for each individual catchment. Finally, we investigated the catchment’s area control on responsivity, elasticity, water yields and Budyko’s elements across our set of 41 nested catchments.

How to cite: Tamez Melendez, C., Meyer, J., Douinot, A., Blöschl, G., and Pfister, L.: Physiographic controls on pre-event hydrological states and hydrological response to extreme precipitation in the Alzette River Basin, Luxembourg, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15439, 2021.

EGU21-6269 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

A new methodological proposal for improving flood risk mapping using geostatistical techniques in Central-Western Spain

Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Julio Garrote-Revilla, Miguel González-Jiménez, and Andrés Díez-Herrero

The bathymetry of the riverbed is essential in flood risk assessment at large rivers, and yet its acquisition is a slow process and endowed with a high budget economic. Moreover, recent research works have shown the importance of improving the geometrical characterization inside the riverbed, which is an issue due to the inability of light to penetrate water bodies. So, most of LiDAR techniques allow us for high resolution surface topography data but not for water occupied river channels. This, apart from making these jobs more difficult, sometimes generates the renouncement of it, using the topography of the water sheet as a riverbed, or the simplification of river channel configuration (trapezoidal transversal sections) which frequently generate an overestimation of flood zones. To overcome these deficiencies, a novel methodological approach has been developed to simulate this bathymetry using simplified models. The proposed approach is based upon the calibration of the flow roughness parameters (Manning´s n value) inside the riverbed. The use of abnormally low Manning´s n values has made it possible to reproduce both the extent of the flooded area and the water depth value within it in an acceptable manner: first results from hydrodynamic modelling of 500-year return period peak flow show the reduction of the water depth average error from 50-75 cm to only about 10 cm; and a direct economic flood damage differences reduction from 25-30% to values of about 5%.

The present work proposes to go further with these investigations and perform a robust geostatistical analysis of hydrodynamic modelling outputs obtained with modified Manning’s n values. The methodology scheme is to characterize the spatial distribution of the results and its spatial correlation with other variables, as the distance to the riverbank or flow rates (for different return periods), through variogram models. This quantitative statistical description of the floodable areas, depending on the Manning’s n value model used and the return period considered, could be used to perform geostatistical simulations that allow to quantify the spatial uncertainties associated to the studied models; as well as to calibrate the optimal spatial distribution of modified Manning’s n values inside the riverbed. These findings will be analysed as guidelines to construct more robust and reliable flood risk estimations; and can be applied to many other study cases around the world, saving analysis time and execution costs, but without losing its scientific rigour.

How to cite: Guardiola-Albert, C., Garrote-Revilla, J., González-Jiménez, M., and Díez-Herrero, A.: A new methodological proposal for improving flood risk mapping using geostatistical techniques in Central-Western Spain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6269, 2021.

EGU21-12915 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Three-Dimensional Non-Multi-Gaussian Simulation by Including Multiple Types of Information at Non-Colocated Locations

Claus Haslauer, Bo Xiao, András Bárdossy, Olaf Cirpka, and Geoffrey Bohling

The incentive of this presentation is the age-old quest of stochastic hydrogeology: Are we able to better match observed long-tailed breakthrough curves by an improved description of the spatial dependence of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K)?

 

This contribution considers two innovations: We include more information than usual by incorporating multiple types of observations at non-collocated locations (data fusion), and we extract more information than usual from the available measurements by analysing statistical properties that go further than typical second-order moments-based analyses (non-Gaussian geostatistics).

 

The evaluation of these innovations in geostatistical simulation methodologies of spatially distributed fields of K is performed against real-world tracer-tests that were performed at the site of the K measurements. The hypothesis is that fields that contain the most information match the observed solute spreading best.

 

The spatially distributed K- fields were geostatistically simulated using the multi-objective phase annealing (PA) method. To accelerate the asymmetry updating during the PA iterations, a Fourier transform based algorithm is integrated into the three-dimensional PA method. Multiple types of objective functions are included to match the value and/or the order of observations as well as the degree of the “non-Gausianness” (asymmetry). Additionally, “censored measurements” (e.g., high-K measurements above the sensitivity of the device that measures K) are considered.

 

The MAcroDispersion Experiment (MADE) site is considered the holy grail of stochastic hydrogeology as among the well instrumented sites in the world, the variance of the hydraulic conductivity measurements at the MADE site is fairly large and detailed observations of solute spreading are available. In addition to the classic K-measurements obtained via 2611 flowmeter measurements, recently a large set of 31123 K‑measurements obtained via direct push injection logging (DPIL), are available, although not at the same locations where the flowmeter measurements were taken.

 

The influence of including different types of information on the simulated spatially-distributed fields of K are evaluated by analyzing the ensemble spatial moments and the dispersivity of numerical conservative solute tracer tests performed using particle tracking. The improved dependence structure of K with all of the above knowledge contains more information than fields simulated by traditional geostatistical algorithms and expected as a more realistic realization of K at the MADE site and at many other sites where such data-fusion approaches are necessary.

How to cite: Haslauer, C., Xiao, B., Bárdossy, A., Cirpka, O., and Bohling, G.: Three-Dimensional Non-Multi-Gaussian Simulation by Including Multiple Types of Information at Non-Colocated Locations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12915, 2021.

EGU21-7501 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Combining statistical learning and geostatistical approaches in a spatiotemporal framework for low flow estimation

Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, Juraj Parajka, and Gregor Laaha

This paper aims to develop a spatiotemporal model to estimate monthly low flow quantiles Q95 [P(Q<Q95=0.05)] standardized by catchment area in Austria. Our dataset consists of 325 gauging stations that where consistently monitored between 1976 to 2015, and it covers about 60% of the national territory of Austria.

In a first step we are adapting a spatiotemporal model initially designed for modeling air pollution data. This approach is based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), that should capture the temporal structure of the spatiotemporal model. The EOFs are weighted by regression coefficients estimated by universal kriging. We extend the model by using GLM-boosting, LASSO, Principal Component Regression (PCR) and Random Forest (RF) for selecting the regression coefficients of the EOFs. Furthermore, we do not limit the kriging structure of the residual field to geographical coordinates but use a broader approach of physiographic kriging. In a second step we implement separate models for the mean parts of the model and the residual parts of the model. The mean field is defined by statistical learning methods as RF, GAM-boosting, LASSO and Support Vector Machines (SVM). For the residual field we define two different approaches, either the method developed in the first step or spatiotemporal kriging.

Model performance is evaluated by cross validation and the best model is selected by the mean squared error (MSE).

 

How to cite: Laimighofer, J., Melcher, M., Parajka, J., and Laaha, G.: Combining statistical learning and geostatistical approaches in a spatiotemporal framework for low flow estimation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7501, 2021.

EGU21-6399 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Uncertainty Estimation for a Global Inland Surface Water Time-Series

Stefan Mayr, Igor Klein, Martin Rutzinger, and Claudia Kuenzer

Fresh water is vital for life on the planet. Satellite remote sensing time-series are well suited to monitor global surface water dynamics. The DLR-DFD Global WaterPack (GWP) provides daily information on inland surface water. However, operating on diurnal- and global spatiotemporal resolution comes with certain drawbacks. As the time-series is primarily based on optical MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images, data gaps due to cloud coverage or invalid observations have to be interpolated. Furthermore, the moderate resolution of 250 m merely allows coarse pixel based areal estimations of surface water extent. To unlock the full potential of this dataset, information on associated uncertainty is essential. Therefore, we introduce several auxiliary layers aiming to address interpolation and quantification uncertainty. The probability of interpolated pixels to be covered by water is given by consideration of different temporal and spatial characteristics inherent to the time-series. Resulting temporal probability layers are evaluated by introducing artificial gaps in the original time-series and determining deviations to the known true state. To assess observational uncertainty in case of valid observations, relative datapoint (pixel) locations in feature space are utilized together with previously established temporal information in a linear mixture model. The hereby obtained classification probability also reveals sub-pixel information, which can enhance the product’s quantitative capabilities. Functionality is evaluated in 32 regions of interest across the globe by comparison to reference data derived from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images. Results show an improved accuracy for partially water covered pixels (6.21 %), and that by uncertainty consideration, more comprehensive and reliable time-series information is achieved.

Keywords: Fresh water, Landsat 8, MODIS, remote sensing, probability, Sentinel-2, sub-pixel scale, validation, water fraction.

How to cite: Mayr, S., Klein, I., Rutzinger, M., and Kuenzer, C.: Uncertainty Estimation for a Global Inland Surface Water Time-Series, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6399, 2021.

A significant issue in all geochemical anomaly classification methods is uncertainty in the identification of different populations and allocation of samples to those populations, including the critical category of geochemical anomalies or patterns that are associated with the effects of mineralisation. This is a major challenge where the effects of mineralisation are subtle. There are various possible sources of such uncertainty, such as (i) gaps in coverage of geochemical sampling within a study area; (ii) errors in geochemical data analysis, spatial measurement, interpolation; (iii) misunderstanding of geological and geochemical processes; (iv) fuzziness or vagueness of the threshold between geochemical background and geochemical anomalies. In this research, the well-established concentration-area (C-A) and the newly established concentration-concentration (C-C) fractal models were applied to centered-logratio (clr) transformed data, and highly correlated elements of Cu-Te, respectively. Such models were applied to the available till samples (2578 samples) collected by the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) from 75% of the country area, to generate the Cu volcanic massive sulfide (VMS) geochemical anomaly classified map and define the highly promising areas for further exploration. However, to be confident more about the robustness of each class recognised by the thresholds obtained from the C-A and C-C log-log plots, Monte Carlo simulation (MCSIM) was applied to each class to simulate a higher number of values per class and consider the relevant error propagation. Under the MCSIM approach, the P50 value (the average 50th percentile of the multiple simulated distributions represents a neutral probability in decision-making) is defined as the expected ‘return’. The uncertainty is calculated, in this approach, as 1/(P90-P10) for which P10 (lower decile) and P90 (upper decile) are the average 10th and 90th percentiles of the multiple simulated values, associated with each class. The most reliable classes are those with high returns and low risks. Based on the results obtained, C-A could not provide robust enough results since in the defined classes, the risk was almost equal or even higher than the return, however, the C-C model provided high returns and very low uncertainties, demonstrating the robustness of C-C compared to C-A. This approach can improve the quality of the decision-making in choosing the most robust classification models, and consequently getting more reliable results.

How to cite: Sadeghi, B.: Evaluation of geochemical anomaly classification models based on the relevant uncertainties and error propagation per class to select the most robust model(s) for the follow-up exploration , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1429, 2021.

EGU21-3368 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Spatial prediction of soil thickness with Gaussian Process Regression using pedological knowledge described by partial differential equations

Kerstin Rau, Thomas Gläßle, Tobias Rentschler, Philipp Hennig, and Thomas Scholten

Recently, there is a growing interest for the soil variable soil thickness in the soil science, geoscience and ecology communities. More and more scientists assume that soil thickness summarizes many different characteristics of the site that are important for plant growth, soil biodiversity and climate change. As such soil thickness can be an indicator of properties like water holding capacity, nutrient cycling, carbon storage, habitat for soil fauna and overall soil quality and productivity. At the same time, it takes a lot of effort to measure soil thickness, especially for larger and heterogeneous areas like mountain regions, which would require dense sampling. For these reasons, it is becoming increasingly important to spatially predict soil thickness as accurately as possible using models.
The typical difficulty in predicting variables in environmental sciences is the small number of samples in the field and resulting from this a small number of usable data points to train models in the spatial domain. One possibility to create valid models with sparse spatially distributed soil data is the combination of point measurements with domain knowledge. For soils and their properties such knowledge can be archived from related environmental data, for example, parent material and climate, and their spatial distribution neighboring the sample points. Frequently used machine learning methods for environmental modelling, especially in the geosciences, are the Gaussian Process Regression Models (GPRs), because a spatial correlation can already be implemented via the covariance kernel. One of the great advantages of using GPRs is the possibility to inform this algorithm directly with soil science knowledge. We can claim this knowledge in different ways.
In this paper we apply a new approach of implementing geographical knowledge into the Gaussian Processes by means of partial differential equations (PDEs), each describing a pedological process. These PDEs include information on how independent environmental variables influence the searched dependent variable. At first, we calculate for simple correlations between soil thickness and these variables, which we then convert into a PDE. As independent variables we initially use exclusively topographical variables derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEM) such as slope, different curvatures, aspect or the topographic wetness index. In this way, expert knowledge can adapt the GPR model in addition to the already existing assumption of spatial dependency given by prior covariance, where near things are more related than distant.
The algorithm will be applied to a data set from Andalusia, Spain, developed by Tobias Rentschler. Among land use information gained from remote sensing, it contains our target variable soil thickness.

How to cite: Rau, K., Gläßle, T., Rentschler, T., Hennig, P., and Scholten, T.: Spatial prediction of soil thickness with Gaussian Process Regression using pedological knowledge described by partial differential equations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3368, 2021.

EGU21-2452 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Topographic Kernels for Gaussian Process Regression in Digital Soil Mapping

Thomas Gläßle, Kerstin Rau, Karsten Schmidt, Thomas Scholten, and Philipp Hennig

Gaussian Processes provide a theoretically well-understood regression framework that is widely used in the context of Digital Soil Mapping. Among the reasons to use Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) are its interpretability, its builtin support for uncertainty quantification, and its ability to handle unevenly spaced and correlated training samples through a user-specified covariance kernel. The base case of GPR is performed with covariance models that are specified functions of Euclidean distance. In order to incorporate information other than the relative positions, regression-kriging extends GPR by an additive regression model of choice, and co-kriging considers a covariance model between covariates and the target variable. In this work, we use the alternative approach of incorporating topographic information directly into the kernel function by use of a non-Euclidean, non-stationary distance function. In particular, we devise kernels based on a path of least effort, where effort is locally specified as a function constructed from prior knowledge. It can e.g. be derived from local topographic variables. We demonstrate that our candidate models improve prediction accuracy over the base model. This shows that domain knowledge can be integrated into the model by means of handcrafted kernel functions. The approach is not per se restricted to topographic variables, but could be used for any covariate quantity that is available at output resolution.

How to cite: Gläßle, T., Rau, K., Schmidt, K., Scholten, T., and Hennig, P.: Topographic Kernels for Gaussian Process Regression in Digital Soil Mapping, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2452, 2021.

EGU21-568 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Assessing local and spatial uncertainty with HER method

Stephanie Thiesen and Uwe Ehret

Uncertainty analysis is a critical subject for many environmental studies. We have previously combined statistical learning and Information Theory in a geostatistical framework for overcoming parameterization with functions and uncertainty trade-offs present in many traditional interpolators (Thiesen et al. 2020). The so-called Histogram via entropy reduction (HER) relaxes normality assumptions, avoiding the risk of adding information not available in the data. The authors showed that, by construction, the method provides a proper framework for uncertainty estimation which accounts for both spatial configuration and data values, while allowing one to introduce or infer properties of the field through the aggregation method. In this study, we explore HER method in the light of uncertainty analysis. In general, uncertainty at any particular unsampled location (local uncertainty) is frequently assessed by nonlinear interpolators such as indicator and multi-gaussian kriging. HER has shown to be a unique approach for dealing with uncertainty estimation in a fine resolution without the need of modeling multiple indicator semivariograms, order-relation violations, interpolation/extrapolation of conditional cumulative distribution functions, or stronger hypotheses of data distribution. In this work, this nonparametric geostatistical framework is adapted to address local and spatial uncertainty in the context of risk mapping. We investigate HER for handling estimations of threshold-exceeding probabilities to map the risk of soil contamination by lead in the well-known dataset of the region of Swiss Jura. Finally, HER method is extended to assess spatial uncertainty (uncertainty when several locations are considered together) through sequential simulation. Its results are compared to indicator kriging and benchmark models available in the literature generated for this particular dataset.

Thiesen S, Vieira DM, Mälicke M, Loritz R, Wellmann JF, Ehret U (2020) Histogram via entropy reduction (HER): an information-theoretic alternative for geostatistics. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 24:4523–4540. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020

How to cite: Thiesen, S. and Ehret, U.: Assessing local and spatial uncertainty with HER method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-568, 2021.

EGU21-9704 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Measurement error-filtered machine learning in digital soil mapping

Stephan van der Westhuizen, Gerard Heuvelink, and David Hofmeyr

Digital soil mapping (DSM) may be defined as the use of a statistical model to quantify the relationship between a certain observed soil property at various geographic locations, and a collection of environmental covariates, and then using this relationship to predict the soil property at locations where the property was not measured. It is also important to quantify the uncertainty with regards to prediction of these soil maps. An important source of uncertainty in DSM is measurement error which is considered as the difference between a measured and true value of a soil property.

The use of machine learning (ML) models such as random forests (RF) has become a popular trend in DSM. This is because ML models tend to be capable of accommodating highly non-linear relationships between the soil property and covariates. However, it is not clear how to incorporate measurement error into ML models. In this presentation we will discuss how to incorporate measurement error into some popular ML models, starting with incorporating weights into the objective function of ML models that implicitly assume a Gaussian error. We will discuss the effect that these modifications have on prediction accuracy, with reference to simulation studies.

How to cite: van der Westhuizen, S., Heuvelink, G., and Hofmeyr, D.: Measurement error-filtered machine learning in digital soil mapping, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9704, 2021.

EGU21-16382 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Estimating and modeling spatio-temporal complex-valued covariance functions

Sabrina Maggio, Donato Posa, Sandra De Iaco, and Claudia Cappello

Oceanographic data belong to the wide class of vectorial data, for which the decomposition in modulus and direction is meaningful, and the vectorial components are characterized by homogeneous quantities, with the same unit of measurement. Another feature of oceanographic data is that they exhibit spatio-temporal dependence.
In Geostatistics, such data can be properly modelled by recalling the theory of complex-valued random fields. However, in the literature, only techniques for modeling and predicting the spatial evolution of these phenomena were proposed; while the temporal dependence was analyzed separately from the spatial one, or just time-varying complex covariance models were used. Thus, the novelty of this paper regards some advances of the complex formalism for analyzing complex data in space-time and new classes of spatio-temporal complex covariance models.
A case study on spatio-temporal complex estimating and modeling with oceanographic data is provided and a comparison between two classes of complex covariance models is also proposed.

How to cite: Maggio, S., Posa, D., De Iaco, S., and Cappello, C.: Estimating and modeling spatio-temporal complex-valued covariance functions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16382, 2021.

EGU21-16387 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

A step by step procedure for multivariate modeling

Claudia Cappello, Sandra De Iaco, Monica Palma, and Sabrina Maggio

In environmental sciences, it is very common to observe spatio-temporal multiple data concerning several correlated variables which are measured in time over a monitored spatial domain. In multivariate Geostatistics, the analysis of these correlated variables requires the estimation and modelling of the spatio-temporal multivariate covariance structure.
In the literature, the linear coregionalization model (LCM) has been widely used, in order to describe the spatio-temporal dependence which characterizes two or more variables. In particular, the LCM model requires the identification of the basic independent components underlying the analyzed phenomenon, and this represents a tough task. In order to overcome the aforementioned problem, this contribution provides a complete procedure where all the necessary steps to be followed for properly detect the basic space-time components for the phenomenon under study, together with some computational advances which support the selection of an ST-LCM.
The implemented procedure and the related algorithms are applied on a space-time air quality dataset.
Note that the proposed procedure can help practitioners to reproduce all the modeling stages and to replicate the analysis for different multivariate spatio-temporal data.

How to cite: Cappello, C., De Iaco, S., Palma, M., and Maggio, S.: A step by step procedure for multivariate modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16387, 2021.

EGU21-16441 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

Modelling local trend of bedrock topography by inverse modelling of Poisson’s equation

Nils-Otto Kitterød and Étienne Leblois

Bedrock topography and sediment thickness can be modelled as stochastic functions in space. These two functions are important for water storage and runoff and they are therefore essential to understand hydrological response to drought and extreme rainfall events. Digital information from remote sensing, geological mapping, and public databases comprise information which make it possible to control the estimation uncertainty. Depending on the geological history, the bedrock topography might have a complex structure in space. We present results from a case study where bedrock outcrops were exposed small patchy areas and with some scattered point information from a public well database. We modelled the estimation uncertainty by standard geostatistical methods (kriging and co-kriging), and the results showed that by including information of the outcrop locations, we were able to reduce the estimation uncertainty (Kitterød, 2017). In addition to the kriging approach, we explored numerical solutions of the Poisson equation. By this method, we modelled the bedrock surface by fitting a parabolic function to sediment thickness. This was done by inverse modelling of a global load parameter in the Poisson equation. For future research, we suggest to substituting the constant load parameter by a stochastic function in space.

References:

Kitterød, N.-O. (2017): Estimating unconsolidated sediment cover thickness by using the horizontal distance to a bedrock outcrop as secondary information, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4195-4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, doi:10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017.

How to cite: Kitterød, N.-O. and Leblois, É.: Modelling local trend of bedrock topography by inverse modelling of Poisson’s equation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16441, 2021.

EGU21-2601 | vPICO presentations | HS3.3

3D modelling of a hydrological structure combining spatial data science and geophysics: Application to a coastal aquifer system in the island of Crete, Greece

Emmanouil Varouchakis, Leonardo Azevedo, João L. Pereira, Ioannis Trichakis, George P. Karatzas, Seifeddine Jomaa, and Pantelis Soupios

Groundwater resources in Mediterranean coastal aquifers are under threat due to overexploitation and climate change impacts, resulting in saltwater intrusion. This situation is deteriorated by the absence of sustainable groundwater resources management plans. Efficient management and monitoring of groundwater systems requires interpreting all sources of available data. This work aims at the development of a set of plausible 3D geological models combining 2D geophysical profiles, spatial data analytics and geostatistical simulation techniques. The resulting set of models represents possible scenarios of the structure of the coastal aquifer system under investigation. Inverted resistivity profiles, along with borehole data, are explored using spatial data science techniques to identify regions associated with higher uncertainty. Relevant parts of the profiles will be used to generate 3D models after detailed Anisotropy and variogram analysis. Multidimensional statistical techniques are then used to select representative models of the true subsurface while exploring the uncertainty space. The resulting models will help to identify primary gaps in existing knowledge about the groundwater system and to optimize the groundwater monitoring network. A comparison with a numerical groundwater flow model will identify similarities and differences and it will be used to develop a typical hydrogeological model, which will aid the management and monitoring of the area's groundwater resources. This work will help the development of a reliable groundwater flow model to investigate future groundwater level fluctuations at the study area under climate change scenarios.

 

This work was developed under the scope of the InTheMED project. InTheMED is part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 1923.

How to cite: Varouchakis, E., Azevedo, L., Pereira, J. L., Trichakis, I., Karatzas, G. P., Jomaa, S., and Soupios, P.: 3D modelling of a hydrological structure combining spatial data science and geophysics: Application to a coastal aquifer system in the island of Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2601, 2021.

HS3.4 – Deep learning in hydrological science

EGU21-8350 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Missing data completion in wastewater network databases: the added-value of Graph Convolutional Neural Networks.

Yassine Belghaddar, Carole Delenne, Nanée Chahinian, Ahlame Begdouri, and Abderrahmane Seriai

Wastewater networks are mandatory for urbanization. Their management, which includes reparation and expansion operations, requires precise information about their underground components, mainly pipes. For hydraulic  modelling purposes, the characteristics of the nodes and pipes in the model must be fully known via specific, complete and consistent attribute tables. However, due to years of service and interventions by different actors, information about the attributes and characteristics associated with the various objects constituting a network are not  properly  tracked and reported. Therefore, databases related to wastewater networks, when available, still suffer from a large amount of missing data.

A wastewater network constitutes a graph composed of nodes and edges. Nodes represent manholes, equipment, repairs, etc. while edges represent pipes. Each of the nodes and edges has a set of properties in the form of attributes such as diameters of the pipes. In this work, we seek to complete the missing attributes of wastewater networks using machine learning techniques. The main goal is to make use of the graph structures in the learning process, taking into consideration the topology and the relationships between their components (nodes and edges) to predict missing attribute values.

Graph Convolutional Network models (GCN) have gained a lot of attention in recent years and achieved state of the art in many applications such as chemistry. These models are applied directly on graphs to perform diverse machine learning tasks. We present here the use of GCN models such as ChebConv to complete the missing attribute values of two datasets (1239 and 754 elements) extracted from the wastewater networks of  Montpellier and Angers Metropolis in France. To emphasize the importance of the graph structure in the learning process and thus on the quality of the predictions, GCNs' results are benchmarked against non-topological neural networks. The application on diameter value completion, indicates that using the structure of the wastewater network in the learning process has a significant impact on the prediction results especially for minority classes. Indeed, the diameter classes are very heterogeneous in terms of number of elements with a highly majority class and several classes with few elements. Non-topological neural networks always fail to predict these classes and affect the majority class value to every missing diameter, yielding a perfect precision for this class but a null one for all the others. On the contrary, the ChebConv model precision is slightly lower (0.93) for the majority class but much higher (increases from 0.3 to 0.81) for other classes, using only the structure of the graphs. The use of other available information in the learning process may enhance these results.

How to cite: Belghaddar, Y., Delenne, C., Chahinian, N., Begdouri, A., and Seriai, A.: Missing data completion in wastewater network databases: the added-value of Graph Convolutional Neural Networks., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8350, 2021.

Machine learning (ML), and particularly deep learning (DL), for geophysical research has shown dramatic successes in recent years. However, these models are primarily geared towards better predictive capabilities, and are generally treated as black box models, limiting researchers’ ability to interpret and understand how these predictions are made. As these models are incorporated into larger models and pushed to be used in more areas it will be important to build methods that allow us to reason about how these models operate. This will have implications for scientific discovery that will ensure that these models are robust and reliable for their respective applications. Recent work in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been used to interpret and explain the behavior of machine learned models.

Here, we apply new tools from the field of XAI to provide physical interpretations of a system that couples a deep-learning based parameterization for turbulent heat fluxes to a process based hydrologic model. To develop this coupling we have trained a neural network to predict turbulent heat fluxes using FluxNet data from a large number of hydroclimatically diverse sites. This neural network is coupled to the SUMMA hydrologic model, taking imodel derived states as additional inputs to improve predictions. We have shown that this coupled system provides highly accurate simulations of turbulent heat fluxes at 30 minute timesteps, accurately predicts the long-term observed water balance, and reproduces other signatures such as the phase lag with shortwave radiation. Because of these features, it seems this coupled system is learning physically accurate relationships between inputs and outputs. 

We probe the relative importance of which input features are used to make predictions during wet and dry conditions to better understand what the neural network has learned. Further, we conduct controlled experiments to understand how the neural networks are able to learn to regionalize between different hydroclimates. By understanding how these neural networks make their predictions as well as how they learn to make predictions we can gain scientific insights and use them to further improve our models of the Earth system.

How to cite: Bennett, A. and Nijssen, B.: Searching for new physics: Using explainable AI to understand deep learned parameterizations of turbulent heat fluxes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3516, 2021.

EGU21-14781 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Predicting energy and carbon fluxes using LSTM networks

Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, and Karsten Schulz

Global land-atmosphere energy and carbon fluxes are key drivers of the Earth’s climate system. Their assessment over a wide range of climates and biomes is therefore essential (i) for a better understanding and characterization of land-atmosphere exchanges and feedbacks and (ii) for examining the effect of climate change on the global water, energy and carbon cycles. 

Large-sample datasets such as the FLUXNET2015 dataset (Pastorello et al., 2020) foster the use of machine learning (ML) techniques as a powerful addition to existing physically-based modelling approaches. Several studies have investigated ML techniques for assessing energy and carbon fluxes, and while across-site variability and the mean seasonal cycle are typically well predicted, deviations from mean seasonal behaviour remains challenging (Tramontana et al., 2016). 

In this study we examine the importance of memory effects for predicting energy and carbon fluxes at half-hourly and daily temporal resolutions. To this end, we train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM, Hochreiter and Schmidthuber, 1997), a recurrent neural network with explicit memory, that is particularly suited for time series predictions due to its capability to store information over longer (time) sequences. We train the LSTM on a large number of FLUXNET sites part of the FLUXNET2015 dataset using local meteorological forcings and static site attributes derived from remote sensing and reanalysis data. 

We evaluate model performance out-of-sample (leaving out individual sites) in a 10-fold cross-validation. Additionally, we compare results from the LSTM with results from another ML technique, XGBoost (Chen and Guestrin, 2016), that does not contain system memory. By analysing the differences in model performances of both approaches across various biomes, we investigate under which conditions the inclusion of memory might be beneficial for modelling energy and carbon fluxes.

 

References:

Chen, Tianqi, and Carlos Guestrin. "Xgboost: A scalable tree boosting system." Proceedings of the 22nd acm sigkdd international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining. 2016.

Hochreiter, Sepp, and Jürgen Schmidhuber. "Long short-term memory." Neural computation 9.8 (1997): 1735-1780.

Pastorello, Gilberto, et al. "The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data." Scientific data 7.1 (2020): 1-27

Tramontana, Gianluca, et al. "Predicting carbon dioxide and energy fluxes across global   FLUXNET sites with regression algorithms." Biogeosciences 13.14 (2016): 4291-4313.

How to cite: Brenner, C., Frame, J., Nearing, G., and Schulz, K.: Predicting energy and carbon fluxes using LSTM networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14781, 2021.

EGU21-2708 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

WEIR-P: An Information Extraction Pipeline for the Wastewater Domain

Nanée Chahinian, Thierry Bonnabaud La Bruyère, Serge Conrad, Carole Delenne, Francesca Frontini, Marin Julien, Rachel Panckhurst, Mathieu Roche, Lucile Sautot, Laurent Deruelle, and Maguelonne Teisseire

Urbanization has been an increasing trend over the past century (UN, 2018) and city managers have had to constantly extend water access and sanitation services to new peripheral areas. Originally these networks were installed, operated, and repaired by their owners (Rogers et al. 2012). However, as concessions were increasingly granted to private companies and new tenders requested regularly by public authorities, archives were sometimes misplaced and event logs were lost. Thus, part of the networks’ operational history was thought to be permanently erased. The advent of Web big data and text-mining techniques may offer the possibility of recovering some of this knowledge by crawling secondary information sources, i.e. documents available on the Web. Thus, insight might be gained on the wastewater collection scheme, the treatment processes, the network’s geometry and events (accidents, shortages) which may have affected these facilities and amenities. The primary aim of the "Megadata, Linked Data and Data Mining for Wastewater Networks" (MeDo) project (http://webmedo.msem.univ-montp2.fr/?page_id=223&lang=en), is to develop resources for text mining and information extraction in the wastewater domain. We developed a specific Natural Language Processing (NLP) pipeline named WEIR-P (WastewatEr InfoRmation extraction Platform) which allows users to retrieve relevant documents for a given network, process them to extract potentially new information, assess this information also by using an interactive visualization and add it to a pre-existing knowledge base. The system identifies the entities and relations to be extracted from texts, pertaining network information, wastewater treatment, accidents and works, organizations, spatio-temporal information, measures and water quality. We present and evaluate the first version of the NLP system. The preliminary results obtained on the Montpellier corpus (1,557 HTML and PDF documents in French) are encouraging and show how a mix of Machine Learning approaches and rule-based techniques can be used to extract useful information and reconstruct the various phases of the extension of a given wastewater network. While the NLP and Information Extraction (IE) methods used are state of the art, the novelty of our work lies in their adaptation to the domain, and in particular in the wastewater management conceptual model, which defines the relations between entities.

How to cite: Chahinian, N., Bonnabaud La Bruyère, T., Conrad, S., Delenne, C., Frontini, F., Julien, M., Panckhurst, R., Roche, M., Sautot, L., Deruelle, L., and Teisseire, M.: WEIR-P: An Information Extraction Pipeline for the Wastewater Domain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2708, 2021.

EGU21-1136 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

The Impact of Land Cover Data on Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Using an Entity-Aware-LSTM

Sebastian Drost, Fabian Netzel, Andreas Wytzisk-Ahrens, and Christoph Mudersbach

The application of Deep Learning methods for modelling rainfall-runoff have reached great advances in the last years. Especially, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have gained enhanced attention for time-series prediction. The architecture of this special kind of recurrent neural network is optimized for learning long-term dependencies from large time-series datasets. Thus, different studies proved the applicability of LSTM networks for rainfall-runoff predictions and showed, that they are capable of outperforming other types of neural networks (Hu et al., 2018).

Understanding the impact of land-cover changes on rainfall-runoff dynamics is an important task. Such a hydrological modelling problem typically is solved with process-based models by varying model-parameters related to land-cover-incidents at different points in time. Kratzert et al. (2019) proposed an adaption of the standard LSTM architecture, called Entity-Aware-LSTM (EA-LSTM), which can take static catchment attributes as input features to overcome the regional modelling problem and provides a promising approach for similar use cases. Hence, our contribution aims to analyse the suitability of EA-LSTM for assessing the effect of land-cover changes.

In different experimental setups, we train standard LSTM and EA-LSTM networks for multiple small subbasins, that are associated to the Wupper region in Germany. Gridded daily precipitation data from the REGNIE dataset (Rauthe et al., 2013), provided by the German Weather Service (DWD), is used as model input to predict the daily discharge for each subbasin. For training the EA-LSTM we use land cover information from the European CORINE Land Cover (CLC) inventory as static input features. The CLC inventory includes Europe-wide timeseries of land cover in 44 classes as well as land cover changes for different time periods (Büttner, 2014). The percentage proportion of each land cover class within a subbasin serves as static input features. To evaluate the impact of land cover data on rainfall-runoff prediction, we compare the results of the EA-LSTM with those of the standard LSTM considering different statistical measures as well as the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE).

In addition, we test the ability of the EA-LSTM to outperform physical process-based models. For this purpose, we utilize existing and calibrated hydrological models within the Wupper basin to simulate discharge for each subbasin. Finally, performance metrics of the calibrated model are used as benchmarks for assessing the performance of the EA-LSTM model.

References

Büttner, G. (2014). CORINE Land Cover and Land Cover Change Products. In: Manakos & M. Braun (Hrsg.), Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in Europe (Bd. 18, S. 55–74). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7969-3_5

Hu, C., Wu, Q., Li, H., Jian, S., Li, N., & Lou, Z. (2018). Deep Learning with a Long Short-Term Memory Networks Approach for Rainfall-Runoff Simulation. Water, 10(11), 1543. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111543

Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., & Nearing, G. (2019). Towards learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors via machine learning applied to large-sample datasets. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23(12), 5089–5110. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019

Rauthe, M, Steiner, H, Riediger, U, Mazurkiewicz, A &Gratzki, A (2013): A Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: Generation and validation of a high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS), Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 22, No 3, 235–256. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0436

How to cite: Drost, S., Netzel, F., Wytzisk-Ahrens, A., and Mudersbach, C.: The Impact of Land Cover Data on Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Using an Entity-Aware-LSTM, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1136, 2021.

EGU21-7041 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Catchment to model space mapping – learning transfer functions from data by symbolic regression

Moritz Feigl, Robert Schweppe, Stephan Thober, Mathew Herrnegger, Luis Samaniego, and Karsten Schulz

The Function Space Optimization (FSO) method, recently developed by Feigl et al. (2020), automatically estimates the transfer function structure and coefficients to parameterize spatially distributed hydrological models. FSO is a symbolic regression method, searching for an optimal transfer function in a continuous optimization space, using a text generating neural network (variational autoencoder).

We apply our method to the distributed hydrological model mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), which is based on a priori defined transfer functions. We estimate mHM transfer functions for the parameters “saturated hydraulic conductivity” and “field capacity”, which both influence a range of hydrologic processes, e.g. infiltration and evapotranspiration.

The FSO and standard mHM approach are compared using data from 229 basins, including 7 large training basins and 222 smaller validation basins, distributed across Germany. For training, 5 years of data of 7 gauging stations is used, while up to 35 years, with a median of 32 years, are used for validation. This setup is adopted from a previous study by Zink et al. (2017), testing mHM in the same basins and which is used as a benchmark. Maps of soil properties (sand/clay percentage, bulk density) and topographic properties (aspect, slope, elevation) are used as possible inputs for transfer functions.

FSO estimated transfer functions improved the mHM model performance in the validation catchments significantly when compared to the benchmark results, and only show a small decrease in performance compared to the training results. Results demonstrate that an automatic estimation of parameter transfer functions by FSO is beneficial for the parameterization of distributed hydrological models and allows for a robust parameter transfer to other locations.

 

Feigl, M., Herrnegger, M., Klotz, D., & Schulz, K. (2020). Function Space Optimization: A symbolic regression method for estimating parameter transfer functions for hydrological models. Water resources research, 56(10), e2020WR027385.

Zink, M., Kumar, R., Cuntz, M., & Samaniego, L. (2017). A high-resolution dataset of water fluxes and states for Germany accounting for parametric uncertainty. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 21, 1769-1790.

How to cite: Feigl, M., Schweppe, R., Thober, S., Herrnegger, M., Samaniego, L., and Schulz, K.: Catchment to model space mapping – learning transfer functions from data by symbolic regression, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7041, 2021.

EGU21-3013 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Prognosis of water levels in a moor groundwater system influenced by hydrology and water extraction using an artificial neural network 

Sascha Flaig, Timothy Praditia, Alexander Kissinger, Ulrich Lang, Sergey Oladyshkin, and Wolfgang Nowak

In order to prevent possible negative impacts of water abstraction in an ecologically sensitive moor south of Munich (Germany), a “predictive control” scheme is in place. We design an artificial neural network (ANN) to provide predictions of moor water levels and to separate hydrological from anthropogenic effects. As the moor is a dynamic system, we adopt the „Long short-term memory“ architecture.

To find the best LSTM setup, we train, test and compare LSTMs with two different structures: (1) the non-recurrent one-to-one structure, where the series of inputs are accumulated and fed into the LSTM; and (2) the recurrent many-to-many structure, where inputs gradually enter the LSTM (including LSTM forecasts from previous forecast time steps). The outputs of our LSTMs then feed into a readout layer that converts the hidden states into water level predictions. We hypothesize that the recurrent structure is the better structure because it better resembles the typical structure of differential equations for dynamic systems, as they would usually be used for hydro(geo)logical systems. We evaluate the comparison with the mean squared error as test metric, and conclude that the recurrent many-to-many LSTM performs better for the analyzed complex situations. It also produces plausible predictions with reasonable accuracy for seven days prediction horizon.

Furthermore, we analyze the impact of preprocessing meteorological data to evapotranspiration data using typical ETA models. Inserting knowledge into the LSTM in the form of ETA models (rather than implicitly having the LSTM learn the ETA relations) leads to superior prediction results. This finding aligns well with current ideas on physically-inspired machine learning.

As an additional validation step, we investigate whether our ANN is able to correctly identify both anthropogenic and natural influences and their interaction. To this end, we investigate two comparable pumping events under different meteorological conditions. Results indicate that all individual and combined influences of input parameters on water levels can be represented well. The neural networks recognize correctly that the predominant precipitation and lower evapotranspiration during one pumping event leads to a lower decrease of the hydrograph.

To further demonstrate the capability of the trained neural network, scenarios of pumping events are created and simulated.

In conclusion, we show that more robust and accurate predictions of moor water levels can be obtained if available physical knowledge of the modeled system is used to design and train the neural network. The artificial neural network can be a useful instrument to assess the impact of water abstraction by quantifying the anthropogenic influence.

How to cite: Flaig, S., Praditia, T., Kissinger, A., Lang, U., Oladyshkin, S., and Nowak, W.: Prognosis of water levels in a moor groundwater system influenced by hydrology and water extraction using an artificial neural network , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3013, 2021.

EGU21-9714 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Multi-Timescale LSTM for Rainfall–Runoff Forecasting

Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, Jimmy Lin, Sepp Hochreiter, Johannes Brandstetter, and Daniel Klotz

Rainfall–runoff predictions are generally evaluated on reanalysis datasets such as the DayMet, Maurer, or NLDAS forcings in the CAMELS dataset. While useful for benchmarking, this does not fully reflect real-world applications. There, meteorological information is much coarser, and fine-grained predictions are at best available until the present. For any prediction of future discharge, we must rely on forecasts, which introduce an additional layer of uncertainty. Thus, the model inputs need to switch from past data to forecast data at some point, which raises several questions: How can we design models that support this transition? How can we design tests that evaluate the performance of the model? Aggravating the challenge, the past and future data products may include different variables or have different temporal resolutions.

We demonstrate how to seamlessly integrate past and future meteorological data in one deep learning model, using the recently proposed Multi-Timescale LSTM (MTS-LSTM, [1]). MTS-LSTMs are based on LSTMs but can generate rainfall–runoff predictions at multiple timescales more efficiently. One MTS-LSTM consists of several LSTMs that are organized in a branched structure. Each LSTM branch processes a part of the input time series at a certain temporal resolution. Then it passes its states to the next LSTM branch—thus sharing information across branches. We generalize this layout to handovers across data products (rather than just timescales) through an additional branch. This way, we can integrate past and future data in one prediction pipeline, yielding more accurate predictions.

 

[1] M. Gauch, F. Kratzert, D. Klotz, G. Nearing, J. Lin, and S. Hochreiter. “Rainfall–Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, in review, 2020.

How to cite: Gauch, M., Kratzert, F., Nearing, G., Lin, J., Hochreiter, S., Brandstetter, J., and Klotz, D.: Multi-Timescale LSTM for Rainfall–Runoff Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9714, 2021.

EGU21-15103 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Runoff predictive capability of a simple LSTM model versus a proven conceptual model between diverse hydrological regimes

Reyhaneh Hashemi, Pierre Brigode, Pierre-André Garambois, and Pierre Javelle

In the field of deep learning, LSTM lies in the category of recurrent neural network architectures. The distinctive capability of LSTM is learning non-linear long-term dependency structures. This makes LSTM a promising candidate for prediction tasks in non-linear time dependent systems such as prediction of runoff in a catchment. This work presents a comparative framework between an LSTM model and a proven conceptual model, namely GR4J. Performance of the two models is studied with respect to length of study period, surface area, and hydrological regime of 491 gauged French catchments covering a wide range of geographical and hydroclimatic conditions.  

Meteorological forcing data (features) include daily time series of catchment-averaged total precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and air temperature. The hydrometric data consists of daily time series of discharge (target variable). The length of study period varies within the sample depending on the availability of full-record of discharge and, on average,  is 15 [years].

In equivalent experimental scenarios, features are kept same in both models and the target variable is predicted for each catchment by both models. Their performance is then evaluated and compared. To do this, the available time series are split into three independent subsequent subsets, namely, training set, validation set, and evaluation set, constituting, respectively, 50%, 20%, and 30% of the study period. The  LSTM model is trained based on the training and validation sets and predicts the target on the evaluation set. The four parameters of GR4J model are calibrated using the training set and the calibrated model is then used to estimate discharges corresponding to the evaluation set. 

The results suggest that the hydrological regime of catchment is the main factor behind the performance pattern of the LSTM model. According to the results, in the hydrological regimes Uniform and Nival, involving flow regimes with dominant long-term processes, the LSTM model outperforms GR4J model. However, in Pluvial-Mediterranean and Pluvial-Nival regimes characterised with pluri-season peaks, the LSTM model underperforms GR4J model.

How to cite: Hashemi, R., Brigode, P., Garambois, P.-A., and Javelle, P.: Runoff predictive capability of a simple LSTM model versus a proven conceptual model between diverse hydrological regimes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15103, 2021.

EGU21-2778 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Rainfall-Runoff Simulation and Interpretation in Great Britain using LSTMs

Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon Dadson

Techniques from the field of machine learning have shown considerable promise in rainfall-runoff modelling. This research offers three novel contributions to the advancement of this field: a study of the performance of LSTM based models in a GB hydrological context; a diagnosis of hydrological processes that data-driven models simulate well but conceptual models struggle with; and finally an exploration of methods for interpreting the internal cell states of the LSTMs. 

In this study we train two deep learning models, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Network and an Entity Aware LSTM (EALSTM), to simulate discharge for 518 catchments across Great Britain using a newly published dataset, CAMELS-GB. We demonstrate that the LSTM models are capable of simulating discharge for a large sample of catchments across Great Britain, achieving a mean catchment Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 for the LSTM and 0.86 for the EALSTM, where no stations have an NSE < 0. We compare these models against a series of conceptual models which have been externally calibrated and used as a benchmark (Lane et al., 2019). 

Alongside robust performance for simulating discharge, we note the potential for data-driven methods to identify hydrological processes that are present in the underlying data, but the FUSE conceptual models are unable to capture. Therefore, we calculate the relative improvement of the LSTMs compared to the conceptual models, ∆NSE. We find that the largest improvement of the LSTM models compared to our benchmark is in the summer months and in the South East of Great Britain. 

We also demonstrate that the internal “memory” of the LSTM correlates with soil moisture, despite the LSTM not receiving soil moisture as an input. This process of “concept-formation” offers three interesting findings. It provides a novel method for deriving soil moisture estimates. It suggests the LSTM is learning physically realistic representations of hydrological processes. Finally, this process of concept formation offers the potential to explore how the LSTM is able to produce accurate simulations of discharge, and the transformations that are learned from inputs (temperature, precipitation) to outputs (discharge).

References:
Lane, R. A., Coxon, G., Freer, J. E., Wagener, T., Johnes, P. J., Bloomfield, J. P., Greene, S., Macleod, C. J., and Reaney, S. M.: Benchmarking the predictive capability of hydrological models for river flow and flood peak predictions across over 1000 catchments in Great Britain, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 4011–4032, 2019.

How to cite: Lees, T., Buechel, M., Anderson, B., Slater, L., Reece, S., Coxon, G., and Dadson, S.: Rainfall-Runoff Simulation and Interpretation in Great Britain using LSTMs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2778, 2021.

EGU21-8393 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Dry-spell assessment through rainfall downscaling comparing deep-learning algorithms and conventional statistical frameworks in a data scarce region: The case of Northern Ghana

Panagiotis Mavritsakis, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Marc Schleiss, and Riccardo Taormina

Large parts of the world rely on rainfed agriculture for their food security. In Africa, 90% of the agricultural yields rely only on precipitation for irrigation purposes and approximately 80% of the population’s livelihood is highly dependent on its food production. Parts of Ghana are prone to droughts and flood events due to increasing variability of precipitation phenomena. Crop growth is sensitive to the wet- and dry-spell phenomena during the rainy season. To support rural communities and small farmer in their efforts to adapt to climate change and natural variability, it is crucial to have good predictions of rainfall and related dry/wet spell indices.

This research constitutes an attempt to assess the dry-spell patterns in the northern region of Ghana, near Burkina Faso. We aim to develop a model which by exploiting satellite products overcomes the poor temporal and spatial coverage of existing ground precipitation measurements. For this purpose 14 meteorological stations featuring different temporal coverage are used together with satellite-based precipitation or cloud top temperature products.

We will compare conventional copula models and deep-learning algorithms to establish a link between satellite products and field rainfall data for dry-spell assessment. The deep-learning architecture used should be able to both have the feature of convolution (Convolutional Neural Networks) and the ability to capture a sequence (Recurrent Neural Networks). The deep-learning architecture used for this purpose is the Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs). Regarding the copula modeling, the Archimedean, the Gaussian and the extreme copulas will be examined as modeling options.

Using these models we will attempt to exploit the long temporal coverage of the satellite products in order to overcome the poor temporal and spatial coverage of existing ground precipitation measurements. Doing that, our final objective is to enhance our knowledge about the dry-spell characteristics and, thus, provide more reliable climatic information to the farmers in the area of Northern Ghana.

How to cite: Mavritsakis, P., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., Schleiss, M., and Taormina, R.: Dry-spell assessment through rainfall downscaling comparing deep-learning algorithms and conventional statistical frameworks in a data scarce region: The case of Northern Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8393, 2021.

EGU21-9803 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Deep learning approach for calibrating Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS) in area-wide soil moisture monitoring

Modou Mbaye, Hami Said, Trenton Franz, Georg Weltin, Gerd Dercon, Lee kheng Heng, Emil Fulajtar, Peter Strauss, Gerhard Rab, and Mapathe Ndiaye

Traditional field calibration of cosmic-Ray neutron sensors (CRNS) for area-wide soil moisture monitoring is based on time-consuming and often expensive soil sample collection and conventional soil moisture measurement. This calibration requires two field campaigns, one under dry and one under wet soil conditions. However, depending on the agro-ecological context more field campaigns may be required for calibration, due to for instance crop biomass water interference. In addition, the current calibration method includes corrections considering several parameters influencing neutron counts, the proxy for soil moisture, such as soil lattice water, organic carbon, and biomass which need to be measured.

The main objective of this study is to investigate and develop an alternative calibration method to the currently available field calibration method. To this end, a Deep Learning model architecture under the TensorFlow machine learning framework is used to calibrate the Cosmic-Ray sensor.

The Deep Learning model is built with more than 8 years of CRNS data from Petzenkirchen (Austria) and consists of four hidden layers with activation function and a succession of batch normalization. Prior to build the Deep Learning model, data analysis consisting of pertinent variables selection was performed with multivariate statistical analysis of correlation. Among nine features, five were effectively pertinent and included in the machine learning artificial neural network architecture. The five input variables were the raw neutrons counts (N1 and N2), humidity (H), air pressure (P4) and temperature (T7).

The preliminary results show a linear regression with an R2 of 0.97 and the model predicted the soil moisture with less than 1% error.

These preliminary results are encouraging and proved that a machine learning based method could be a valuable alternative calibration method for CRNS against the current field calibration method.

More investigation will be performed to test the model under different agro-ecological conditions, such as Nebraska, USA. Further, additional input variables will be considered in the development of machine learning based models, to bring in agro-ecological information, such as crop cover, growth stage, precipitation related to the CRNS footprint. 

How to cite: Mbaye, M., Said, H., Franz, T., Weltin, G., Dercon, G., Heng, L. K., Fulajtar, E., Strauss, P., Rab, G., and Ndiaye, M.: Deep learning approach for calibrating Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS) in area-wide soil moisture monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9803, 2021.

EGU21-13900 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Real-Time Runoff Forecasting using Remotely Sensed Data

Paul Muñoz, David F. Muñoz, Johanna Orellana-Alvear, Hamed Moftakhari, Hamid Moradkhani, and Rolando Célleri

Current efforts on Deep Learning-based modeling are being put for solving real world problems with complex or even not-fully understood interactions between predictors and target variables. A special artificial neural network, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a promising data-driven modeling approach for dynamic systems yet little has been explored in hydrological applications such as runoff forecasting. An aditional challenge to the forecasting task arises from the uncertainties generated when using readily-available Remote Sensing (RS) imagery aimed to overcome lack of in-situ data describing the runoff governing processes. Here, we proposed a runoff forecasting framework for a 300-kmmountain catchment located in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. The framework consists on real-time data acquisition, preprocessing and runoff forecasting for lead times between 1 and 12 hours. LSTM models were fed with 18 years of hourly runoff, and precipitation data from the novel PERSIANN-Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate near real-time (PDIR-Now) product. Model efficiencies according to the NSE metric ranged from 0.959 to 0.554, for the 1- to 12-hour models, respectively. Considering that the concentration time of the catchment is approximately 4 hours, the proposed framework becomes a useful tool for delivering runoff forecasts to decision makers, stakeholders and the public. This study has shown the suitability of using the PDIR-Now product in a LSTM-modeling framework for real-time hydrological applications. Future endeavors must focus on improving data representation and data assimilation through feature engineering strategies.

Keywords: Long Short-Term Memory; PDIR-Now; Hydroinformatics; Runoff forecasting; Tropical Andes

How to cite: Muñoz, P., Muñoz, D. F., Orellana-Alvear, J., Moftakhari, H., Moradkhani, H., and Célleri, R.: Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Real-Time Runoff Forecasting using Remotely Sensed Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13900, 2021.

EGU21-4400 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Sensitivity Analysis of the Hyperparameters of CNN for Precipitation Downscaling

Takeyoshi Nagasato, Kei Ishida, Kazuki Yokoo, Masato Kiyama, and Motoki Amagasaki

Nowadays, a convolutional neural network (CNN), which is a kind of deep neural network has been shown to have high applicability to precipitation downscaling in previous studies. CNN has various hyperparameters, which greatly affect the estimation accuracy. In the field of computer science, researches on hyperparameter settings have been conducted, especially for image recognition. However, there are few studies that investigated the sensitivity analysis of hyperparameters on precipitation downscaling by means of CNN. Therefore, this study conducted a sensitivity analysis of the hyperparameters of CNN for precipitation downscaling. For this study, atmospheric reanalysis data were used as the inputs for precipitation downscaling by means of CNN, and daily average precipitation at the basin level were used as the target data. Then, this study focused on the hyperparameters of CNN that have a great influence on the feature extraction of input data (such as kernel size, number of output channels in the convolutional layer, etc.). Considering that the learning process of CNN has randomness, CNN was trained 200 times for the setting conditions of each hyperparameter and evaluated the estimation accuracy. As the results of detailed sensitivity analysis, it was shown that the estimation accuracy may not be improved even if the structure of CNN deeper. Contrarily, It was also shown that initial conditions such as batch selection and bias in the CNN learning process may have relatively large effects on the learning results.

How to cite: Nagasato, T., Ishida, K., Yokoo, K., Kiyama, M., and Amagasaki, M.: Sensitivity Analysis of the Hyperparameters of CNN for Precipitation Downscaling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4400, 2021.

EGU21-9091 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Scale-dependent impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers on groundwater level dynamics – analysis of shallow coastal aquifers using deep learning

Annika Nolte, Steffen Bender, Jens Hartmann, and Stefan Baltruschat

Groundwater level dynamics are very sensitive to groundwater withdrawal, but their effects and magnitude – especially in combination with natural fluctuations – must be often estimated due to missing or inaccurate information of all local pumping activities in an area. This study examines the potential of deep learning applications at large spatial scales to estimate the parts of local withdrawal activities and natural impacts – meteorological and environmental – on groundwater level dynamics. We will use big data elements from a newly constructed global groundwater database in a single long-term short-term memory (LSTM) model to examine scale-dependent impacts. The data used in the model consists of continuous groundwater level observations and catchment attributes – spatially heterogeneous but temporally static catchment attributes (e.g. topography) and continuous observations of the meteorological forcing (e.g. precipitation) – from several hundred catchments of shallow coastal aquifers of different continents. Our approach is to use only freely accessible data sources covering the global scale as catchment attributes. We will test how relationships between groundwater level dynamics and catchment attributes, at different scales, can improve interpretability of groundwater level simulations using deep learning techniques.

How to cite: Nolte, A., Bender, S., Hartmann, J., and Baltruschat, S.: Scale-dependent impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers on groundwater level dynamics – analysis of shallow coastal aquifers using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9091, 2021.

EGU21-49 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Universal Differential Equation for Diffusion-Sorption Problem in Porous Media Flow

Timothy Praditia, Sergey Oladyshkin, and Wolfgang Nowak

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely applied to model hydrological problems with the increasing availability of data and computing power. ANNs are particularly useful to predict dynamic variables and to learn / discover constitutive relationships between variables. In the hydrology field, a specific example of the relationship takes the form of the governing equations of contaminant transport in porous media flow. Fluid flow in porous media is a spatio-temporal problem and it requires a certain numerical structure to solve. The ANNs, on the other hand, are black-box models that lack interpretability especially in their structure and prediction. Therefore, the discovery of the relationships using ANNs is not apparent. Recently, a distributed spatio-temporal ANN architecture (DISTANA) was proposed. The structure consists of transition kernels that learn the connectivity between one spatial cell and its neighboring cells, and prediction kernels that transform the transition kernels output to predict the quantities of interest at the subsequent time step. Another method, namely the Universal Differential Equation (UDE) for scientific machine learning was also introduced. UDE solves spatio-temporal problems by using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) structure to handle the spatial dependency and then approximating the differential operator with an ANN. This differential operator will be solved with Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) solvers to administer the time dependency. In our work, we combine both methods to design an improved network structure to solve a contaminant transport problem in porous media, governed with the non-linear diffusion-sorption equation. The designed architecture consists of flux kernels and state kernels. Flux kernels are necessary to calculate the connectivity between neighboring cells, and are especially useful for handling different types of boundary conditions (Dirichlet, Neumann, and Cauchy). Furthermore, the state kernels are able to predict both observable states and mass-conserved states (total and dissolved contaminant concentration) separately. Additionally, to discover the constitutive relationship of sorption (i.e. the non-linear retardation factor R), we regularize its training to reflect the known monotonicity of R. As a result, our network is able to approximate R generated with the linear, Freundlich, and Langmuir sorption model, as well as the contaminant concentration with high accuracy.

How to cite: Praditia, T., Oladyshkin, S., and Nowak, W.: Universal Differential Equation for Diffusion-Sorption Problem in Porous Media Flow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-49, 2021.

EGU21-16108 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

On the data synergy effect of large-sample multi-physics catchment modeling with machine learning

Chaopeng Shen, Farshid Rahmani, Kuai Fang, Zhi Wei, and Wen-Ping Tsai

Watersheds in the world are often perceived as being unique from each other, requiring customized study for each basin. Models uniquely built for each watershed, in general, cannot be leveraged for other watersheds. It is also a customary practice in hydrology and related geoscientific disciplines to divide the whole domain into multiple regimes and study each region separately, in an approach sometimes called regionalization or stratification. However, in the era of big-data machine learning, models can learn across regions and identify commonalities and differences. In this presentation, we first show that machine learning can derive highly functional continental-scale models for streamflow, evapotranspiration, and water quality variables. Next, through two hydrologic examples (soil moisture and streamflow), we argue that unification can often significantly outperform stratification, and systematically examine an effect we call data synergy, where the results of the DL models improved when data were pooled together from characteristically different regions and variables. In fact, the performance of the DL models benefited from some diversity in training data even with similar data quantity. However, allowing heterogeneous training data makes eligible much larger training datasets, which is an inherent advantage of DL. We also share our recent developments in advancing hydrologic deep learning and machine learning driven parameterization.

How to cite: Shen, C., Rahmani, F., Fang, K., Wei, Z., and Tsai, W.-P.: On the data synergy effect of large-sample multi-physics catchment modeling with machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16108, 2021.

EGU21-10266 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Denoising of river surface photogrammetric DEMs using deep learning

Radosław Szostak, Przemysław Wachniew, Mirosław Zimnoch, Paweł Ćwiąkała, Edyta Puniach, and Marcin Pietroń

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can be an excellent tool for environmental measurements due to their ability to reach inaccessible places and fast data acquisition over large areas. In particular drones may have a potential application in hydrology, as they can be used to create photogrammetric digital elevation models (DEM) of the terrain allowing to obtain high resolution spatial distribution of water level in the river to be fed into hydrological models. Nevertheless, photogrammetric algorithms generate distortions on the DEM at the water bodies. This is due to light penetration below the water surface and the lack of static characteristic points on water surface that can be distinguished by the photogrammetric algorithm. The correction of these disturbances could be achieved by applying deep learning methods. For this purpose, it is necessary to build a training dataset containing DEMs before and after water surfaces denoising. A method has been developed to prepare such a dataset. It is divided into several stages. In the first step a photogrammetric surveys and geodetic water level measurements are performed. The second one includes generation of DEMs and orthomosaics using photogrammetric software. Finally in the last one the interpolation of the measured water levels is done to obtain a plane of the water surface and apply it to the DEMs to correct the distortion. The resulting dataset was used to train deep learning model based on convolutional neural networks. The proposed method has been validated on observation data representing part of Kocinka river catchment located in the central Poland.

This research has been partly supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education Project “Initiative for Excellence – Research University” and Ministry of Science and Higher Education subsidy, project no. 16.16.220.842-B02 / 16.16.150.545.

How to cite: Szostak, R., Wachniew, P., Zimnoch, M., Ćwiąkała, P., Puniach, E., and Pietroń, M.: Denoising of river surface photogrammetric DEMs using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10266, 2021.

EGU21-9145 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning Simulation of Daily Streamflow with Monte Carlo Dropout

Sadegh Sadeghi Tabas and Vidya Samadi

Deep Learning (DL) is becoming an increasingly important tool to produce accurate streamflow prediction across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. However, classical DL networks do not incorporate uncertainty information but only return a point prediction. Monte-Carlo Dropout (MC-Dropout) approach offers a mathematically grounded framework to reason about DL uncertainty which was used here as random diagonal matrices to introduce randomness to the streamflow prediction process. This study employed Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to simulate daily streamflow records across a coastal plain drainage system, i.e., the Northeast Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina, USA. We employed MC-Dropout approach with the DL algorithm to make streamflow simulation more robust to potential overfitting by introducing random perturbation during training period. Daily streamflow was calibrated during 2000-2010 and validated during 2010-2014 periods. Our results provide a unique and strong evidence that variational sampling via MC-Dropout acts as a dissimilarity detector. The MC-Dropout method successfully captured the predictive error after tuning a hyperparameter on a representative training dataset. This approach was able to mitigate the problem of representing model uncertainty in DL simulations without sacrificing computational complexity or accuracy metrics and can be used for all kind of DL-based streamflow (time-series) model training with dropout.

How to cite: Sadeghi Tabas, S. and Samadi, V.: Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning Simulation of Daily Streamflow with Monte Carlo Dropout, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9145, 2021.

EGU21-8638 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Exploring deep learning approaches to predict hourly evolution of surge levels

Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Chiem van Straaten, Sanne Muis, and Philip Ward

In order to better understand current coastal flood risk, it is critical to be able to predict the characteristics of non-tidal residuals (from here on referred to as surges), such as their temporal variation and the influence of coastal complexities on the magnitude of storm surge levels. In this study, we use an ensemble of Deep Learning (DL) models to predict hourly surge levels using four different types of neural networks and evaluate their performance. Among deep learning models, artificial neural networks (ANN) have been popular neural network models for surge level prediction, but other DL model types have not been investigated yet. In this contribution, we use three DL approaches - CNN, LSTM, and a combined CNN-LSTM model- , to capture temporal dependencies, spatial dependencies and spatio-temporal dependencies between atmospheric conditions and surges for 736 tide gauge locations. Using the high temporal and spatial resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets ERA5 from ECMWF as predictors, we train, validate and test surge based on observed hourly surge levels derived from the GESLA-2 dataset. We benchmark our results obtained with DL to those provided by a simple probabilistic reference model based on climatology. This study shows promising results for predicting the temporal evolution of surges with DL approaches, and gives insight into the capability to gain skill using DL approaches with different Architectures for surge prediction. We therefore foresee a wide range of advantages in using DL models for coastal applications: probabilistic coastal flood hazard assessment, rapid prediction of storm surge estimates, future predictions of surge levels.

How to cite: Tiggeloven, T., Couasnon, A., van Straaten, C., Muis, S., and Ward, P.: Exploring deep learning approaches to predict hourly evolution of surge levels, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8638, 2021.

EGU21-4398 | vPICO presentations | HS3.4

Effect of input variables on rainfall-runoff modeling using a deep learning method

Kazuki yokoo, Kei ishida, Takeyoshi nagasato, and Ali Ercan

In recent years, deep learning has been applied to various issues in natural science, including hydrology. These application results show its high applicability. There are some studies that performed rainfall-runoff modeling by means of a deep learning method, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). LSTM is a kind of RNN (Recurrent Neural Networks) that is suitable for modeling time series data with long-term dependence. These studies showed the capability of LSTM for rainfall-runoff modeling. However, there are few studies that investigate the effects of input variables on the estimation accuracy. Therefore, this study, investigated the effects of the selection of input variables on the accuracy of a rainfall-runoff model by means of LSTM. As the study watershed, this study selected a snow-dominated watershed, the Ishikari River basin, which is in the Hokkaido region of Japan. The flow discharge was obtained at a gauging station near the outlet of the river as the target data. For the input data to the model, Meteorological variables were obtained from an atmospheric reanalysis dataset, ERA5, in addition to the gridded precipitation dataset. The selected meteorological variables were air temperature, evaporation, longwave radiation, shortwave radiation, and mean sea level pressure. Then, the rainfall-runoff model was trained with several combinations of the input variables. After the training, the model accuracy was compared among the combinations. The use of meteorological variables in addition to precipitation and air temperature as input improved the model accuracy. In some cases, however, the model accuracy was worsened by using more variables as input. The results indicate the importance to select adequate variables as input for rainfall-runoff modeling by LSTM.

How to cite: yokoo, K., ishida, K., nagasato, T., and Ercan, A.: Effect of input variables on rainfall-runoff modeling using a deep learning method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4398, 2021.

HS3.5 – Clustering in hydrology: methods, applications and challenges

EGU21-375 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5 | Highlight

Functional data clustering as a powerful tool to group streamflow regimes and flood hydrographs

Manuela Irene Brunner, Reinhard Furrer, and Eric Gilleland

Grouping catchments according to their seasonal streamflow or flood behavior can be essential in regionalization studies, climate impact assessments, or model choice and evaluation. Classical clustering approaches often rely on a selection of indices derived from streamflow/flood hydrographs to identify groups of similar hydrographs and ignore valuable information provided through the temporal (auto-)correlation pattern. To exploit this temporal information, we propose a functional clustering approach to identify catchments with similar streamflow regimes or flood hydrographs. Functional data clustering expresses hydrograph shapes as continuous functions by projecting them onto a set of basis functions (here B-splines) and clusters the resulting basis coefficients using classical clustering algorithms such as hierarchical or k-means clustering.
We apply this functional clustering approach to (1) a large set of catchments in the United States in order to identify regions with similar streamflow regimes and (2) a large set of catchments in Switzerland in order to identify regions with similar flood reactivity. We show that both the streamflow regime and flood reactivity regions are not only similar in terms of their streamflow/hydrograph behavior but also in terms of physiography and climate. We use the streamflow regime clusters derived using functional data clustering to assess future streamflow regime changes in the United States and demonstrate that they are beneficial in climate impact assessments, e.g. to indicate which types of catchments are particularly prone to future change. Further, we use the flood reactivity regions in a regionalization study to derive design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. We conclude that functional clustering approaches are beneficial in climate impact assessments and regionalization studies and might potentially also be valuable to cluster other types of hydrological phenomena such as drought events or long-term streamflow behavior.

How to cite: Brunner, M. I., Furrer, R., and Gilleland, E.: Functional data clustering as a powerful tool to group streamflow regimes and flood hydrographs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-375, 2021.

EGU21-206 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5

Clustering analysis for the hydro-geomorphometric characterization of the George River watershed (Nunavik, Canada)

Eliot Sicaud, Jan Franssen, Jean-Pierre Dedieu, and Daniel Fortier

For remote and vast northern watersheds, hydrological data are often sparse and incomplete. Fortunately, remote sensing approaches can provide considerable information about the structural properties of watersheds, which is useful for the indirect assessment of their hydrological characteristics and behavior. Our main objective is to produce a high-resolution territorial clustering based on key hydrologic landscape metrics for the entire 42 000 km2 George River watershed (GRW), located in Nunavik, northern Québec (Canada). This project is being conducted in partnership with the local Inuit communities of the GRW for the purpose of generating and sharing knowledge to anticipate the impact of climate and socio-environmental change in the GRW.

Our clustering approach employs Unsupervised Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GeOBIA) applied to the entire GRW with the subwatersheds as our objects of analysis. The landscape metric datasets used to generate the input variables of our GeOBIA classification are raster layers with a 30m x 30m pixel resolution. Topographic metrics are derived from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and include elevation, slopes, aspect, drainage density and watershed elongation. Land cover spectral metrics comprised in our analysis are the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) (Gao, 1996) and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) (McFeeters, 1996), which are all computed from a Landsat-8 cloud-free surface reflectance mosaic dating from 2015. Rasterized maps of surface deposit distribution and permafrost distribution, both produced by the Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs of Québec (MFFP), respectively constitute the surface and subsurface metrics of our GeOBIA.

The clustering algorithm used in this Unsupervised GeOBIA is the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) algorithm. The FCM algorithm provides the objects a set of membership coefficients corresponding to each cluster. The greatest membership coefficient is then used to attribute the distinct subwatersheds to a cluster of watersheds with similar hydro-geomorphometric characteristics. The classification returns a Fuzzy Partition Coefficient (FPC), which describes how well-partitioned our dataset is. The FPC can vary greatly depending on the number of clusters we want to produce. Thus, we find the optimal number of clusters by maximizing the FPC.

Preliminary clustering results, computed only with topographic and land cover metrics, have identified two distinct watershed classes/clusters. In general, “Type 1” subwatersheds are clustered over the southern and northwestern portion of the GRW and are characterized by low to moderate elevation, high vegetation cover, high moisture and high surface water cover. Whereas “Type 2” subwatersheds located over the northeastern portion of the GRW are characterized by high elevation, low vegetation cover, low moisture and low surface water cover. These results will be refined with the use of additional metrics and will provide the detailed understanding necessary to assess how the hydrological regime of the river and its tributaries will respond to climate change, and how landscape change and human activities (e.g., planned mining development) may impact the water quality of the George River and its tributaries.

How to cite: Sicaud, E., Franssen, J., Dedieu, J.-P., and Fortier, D.: Clustering analysis for the hydro-geomorphometric characterization of the George River watershed (Nunavik, Canada), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-206, 2021.

EGU21-8363 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5 | Highlight

Method to obtain optimum number of clusters in geo-spatial data using stability analysis of cluster centres

Dave O Leary, Eve Daly, and Colin Brown

Recently the availability of large geo-spatial datasets has increased. These range from soil, quaternary, and geology maps to airborne geophysical and satellite remote sensing data. Such datasets may provide a means to spatially map hydrologically relevant properties (porosity, permeability, texture, depth etc), traditionally mapped via in-situ measurements. However, such datasets, and the relationship between them, is often complex.

Clustering of multidimensional data offers a means to simplify our understanding of the relationships in the data by dividing it into groups containing similar relationships. Clustering can be used as a form of initial exploratory analysis when little is known about how the data relates to the underlying processes in its creation. Such analysis can be useful for geo-spatial datasets whereby the resulting clusters can be re-projected back to the original spatial coordinates and the spatial distribution of the clusters can be visualised.

There are various clustering algorithms available and the choice of algorithm is often as important as choosing the clustering parameters within it. This work shows a comparison between a more traditional K-Means clustering and a more modern machine learning technique known as Self-Organising Maps (SOMs). The choice of number of clusters for such an analysis is also ambiguous, requiring a priori knowledge of the result. This undermines the general idea behind unsupervised clustering, whereby the result should be driven by the data.

Here, a method is proposed to allow the choice of clusters to be dependent on a metric derived from within the cluster analysis itself. The method presented uses the variation in (dataspace) distance between each data point and its cluster centre over 100 runs, for increasing number of clusters. The number of clusters at which this variation remains low is then determined to be the natural optimum number of clusters for a particular dataset.

This method is tested on a dataset where the cluster number is already known and a real-world example. Dataset 1 is the “Rice Grain Model” with four known clusters, which the method can accurately reconstruct. The real-world dataset is a combination of airborne radiometric geophysical data and a digital elevation model over peatland in the Republic of Ireland. The method outputs three as the optimum number of clusters and the result divides the peatland into three zones (confirmed with a ground geophysics survey) which are to be used in the creation of hydrological units within Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modelling.

How to cite: O Leary, D., Daly, E., and Brown, C.: Method to obtain optimum number of clusters in geo-spatial data using stability analysis of cluster centres, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8363, 2021.

EGU21-7952 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5

Leveraging unsupervised learning for optimizing the number of sub-grid tiles for land surface modeling over the Contiguous United States

Laura Torres-Rojas, Noemi Vergopolan, Jonathan D. Herman, and Nathaniel W. Chaney

The representation of land surface’s sub-grid heterogeneity in Earth System models remains a persistent challenge. The evolution of grid-cell partitioning techniques has evolved from user-defined equally sized tiles (Chen et al., 1997) to structural partition techniques based on vegetation or soil spatial distribution (Melton & Arora, 2014), and finally, to advanced clustering techniques, based on the concept of Hydrological Response Units (HRU) (Chaney et al., 2018). These sub-grid tiling schemes for Land Surface Models (LSM) have emerged as efficient and effective options to represent sub-grid heterogeneity. However, such approaches rely on an arbitrarily-defined number of tiles per macroscale grid cell with no assurance of a robust representation of heterogeneity. To address this challenge, we introduce a physically coherent approach that uses a Random Forest Model (RFM) to precompute the optimal tile configuration per macro-grid cell. An RFM is trained on a set of environmental covariates, their spatial organization features over the modeling domain (i.e., correlation lengths), and hydrological target-variables errors of several model outputs.

We assemble and run the HydroBlocks LSM for 100 tiles’ configurations for 100 domains of 0.5x0.5-degree resolution in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The tiles’ configuration is defined by two clustering algorithm parameters and one height discretization one. From this parameter combination, 10,000 simulations emerged. For each simulation, we compiled the spatial standard deviation of specific hydrological target-variables and evaluated the tiles’ configuration convergence by comparing various multi-objective optimization methodologies to determine the optimal compromise solutions on each study domain. Preliminary results show that as the number of tiles increases, the hydrological fluxes and states converge toward stable conditions. With the optimal parameter combination set for each domain and information on the environmental characteristics, an RFM is trained to predict the optimal cluster configuration. Using this approach, we demonstrate how a reduced-order model can effectively compute a priori the appropriate tile complexity based solely on environmental characteristics.

References

Chaney, N. W. el al. (2018). Harnessing big data to rethink land heterogeneity in Earth system models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(6), 3311–3330. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3311-2018

Chen, T. H. et al. (1997). Cabauw experimental results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes. Journal of Climate, 10(6), 1194–1215. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1194:CERFTP>2.0.CO;2

Melton, J. R., & Arora, V. K. (2014). Sub-grid scale representation of vegetation in global land surface schemes: implications for estimation of the terrestrial carbon sink. Biogeosciences, 11, 1021–1036. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014

How to cite: Torres-Rojas, L., Vergopolan, N., Herman, J. D., and Chaney, N. W.: Leveraging unsupervised learning for optimizing the number of sub-grid tiles for land surface modeling over the Contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7952, 2021.

EGU21-13843 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5

An objective separation of rainfall classes in the high tropical Andes by using a clustering analysis.

Gabriela Urgilés, Rolando Célleri, Katja Trachte, Jörg Bendix, and Johanna Orellana-Alvear

Information about the temporal rainfall variability at high-resolution is scarce, especially in regions with complex topography as the Tropical Andes, and this hinders the study rainfall dynamics. The identification of rainfall types is usually determined using thresholds of some rainfall characteristics as rain rate and velocity. Nevertheless, these thresholds are identified for a specific study area and thus they cannot be extrapolated to other places to identify rainfall classes. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate rainfall-event classes based on a clustering approach by using the k-means algorithm. The clustering analysis is used to group objects (i.e., rainfall-events) based on its characteristics (e.g., duration, intensity, drop size distribution, melting layer identification). This study was carried out using data retrieved from a vertically pointing Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and a laser disdrometer. The instruments were located in the tropical Andes, at 2600 m a.s.l., in the city of Cuenca, Ecuador.  Three years of data were available for the study. Firstly, the rainfall events were selected by using the criteria: minimum inter-event, minimum total accumulation and minimum duration. Then, by using the k-means algorithm, two principal rainfall classes were identified in the study area. These rainfall classes (i.e., convective, stratiform) showed marked differences in their rainfall characteristics. Besides, a third rainfall class (mixed class) was identified as a subclass of the stratiform class. The stratiform class was more common during the year in the study area. Also, short duration rainfall events (less than 70 min) were dominant. Furthermore, the melting layer characteristic – that is used to determine rainfall classes – did not influence the rainfall class identification using the clustering analysis, especially in two classes; thus, its prior study is not necessary, and this makes the clustering analysis highly beneficial. Finally, this clustering analysis ensured an objective separation of rainfall classes in the tropical high Andes. This rainfall classification provided new insights about the rainfall dynamics in this tropical mountain area.

How to cite: Urgilés, G., Célleri, R., Trachte, K., Bendix, J., and Orellana-Alvear, J.: An objective separation of rainfall classes in the high tropical Andes by using a clustering analysis., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13843, 2021.

EGU21-14758 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5

Knowledge discovery using clustering analysis of rainfall timeseries

Konstantinos Vantas and Epaminondas Sidiropoulos

Rainfall time series analysis using clustering involves the identification of temporal patterns, with each data item representing an individual storm. This analysis results in clusters of data items that trend in a common way and can be utilized in stochastic simulation, water resources planning and the identification of future directions due to climate change. A comparative analysis is carried out of several methods that use intra versus inter-cluster distances, for the estimation of the relevant number of clusters using a big dataset of the described rainfall time series. Visualization using topographic maps that are produced via nonlinear projection techniques is applied, to validate the presence of both distance and density structures and to assist in the final determination of the numbers of clusters. This stands in contrast to empirical and not completely data-driven approaches of the literature, in which constrained clustering methods are employed with assumptions on the presence of four classes.

How to cite: Vantas, K. and Sidiropoulos, E.: Knowledge discovery using clustering analysis of rainfall timeseries, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14758, 2021.

EGU21-9090 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5

Statistical analysis of rainfall event features using the Self Organizing Map with application to Northern Tunisia

Sabrine Derouiche, Cécile Mallet, Zoubeida Bargaoui, and Abdelwahab Hannachi

The use of artificial neural networks in problems related to water resources, hydrology and meteorology has received steadily increasing interest over the last decade or so. In this study, the methodology proposed to analyse rainfall features and to investigate the relationships with global climate change is based on  the use of Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and presents a generic character.

As a first step, daily winter precipitation of northern Tunisia, collected between 1960-2009 over 70 rain gauge stations, are transformed into separate events. This separation is based on the determination of the minimun inter-event time (dry interval) between two independent and consecutive rain events. Six rainfall event features (i.e., average rain event accululation, average event duration, seasonnal accumulation, number of rainy day…) are thus extracted for each of the (70 stations x 50 winter seasons).

In the second step, SOM is applied to analyse the six rainfall features. The SOM is an unsupervised learning algorithm, used as a technique vector quantization, allowing the modeling of probability density functions. It divides the set of multidimensional data (vectors of six features in our case) into clusters. As in k-means, rainfall stations and years with similar characteristics are grouped in a cluster represented by its centroid point named referent. SOM enables moreover the projection of high-dimensional data onto a low dimensional (usually two-dimensional) discrete lattice of neurons as an output layer (map space). The structure of the neurons in the map and the cost function used for its training, ensure that neighboring neurons in the map space are associated with neighboring referents in the initial space. This conservation of the topology allows the analysis of multidimensional nonlinear relationships between the six selected descriptors by visualizing their projection in the map space.

For a better representation of the input dataset a 16×20 neurons map is used. But a such number may complicate the synthesis of some spatial or temporal specificities. So, this large number of neurons is aggregated into a smaller number of clusters. For that an hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC)  is applied in the third step. This hierachical process is initiated by accepting each neuron as a separate cluster. Then, at each stage of the algorithm, similar clusters, using Ward distance, are combined in pairs.

The fourth step allows to determine the final number of clusters by using visually-based method known as data image. This consists of mapping the dissimilarity matrix of the referents into an image framework where each pixel reflects the magnitude of each value. Here rows and columns can be reordered based on hierarchical clustering of the referents The blocs observed along the diagonal of each image represents the clusters.

Finaly the northern Tunisia winter precipitation are classified into four rainfall situations from the driest to the wettest while also taking into account the rainfall day frequency during the season and rainfall event types. The projection of external climatic variables on the map will make it possible to analyse the links between the four observed rain regimes and the global climate.

How to cite: Derouiche, S., Mallet, C., Bargaoui, Z., and Hannachi, A.: Statistical analysis of rainfall event features using the Self Organizing Map with application to Northern Tunisia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9090, 2021.

EGU21-12378 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5

Clustering CDF and IDF curves of rainfall extremes

Abbas El Hachem, András Bárdossy, Jochen Seidel, Golbarg Goshtsasbpour, and Uwe Haberlandt

Precipitation extremes are a space-time variant. Understanding how they vary from one location to another is an essential information for identifying spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous areas. By identifying the boundaries of these areas, a better characterization of the underlying spatial behavior is possible. Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a mathematical function that relates the rainfall intensity with its duration and frequency of occurrence. The clustering approach is helpful for finding homogeneous regions for grouping stations (or radar cells) to estimate regional cumulative distribution functions (CDF) or regional IDF curves. This offers a new possibility to include the spatial aspect of rainfall extremes. For this purpose, CDF and IDF curves were calculated from the observed rainfall data at the rain gauges of the German weather service network.   Data from almost 5000 stations with daily resolution and 1000 stations with higher temporal resolution were used. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, a statistical nonparametric test was used to compare the similarity (or dissimilarity) between the distribution functions. Eventually a KS distance matrix was obtained and a multidimensional scaling analysis along a K-means clustering algorithm was performed. As a main result, similar and dissimilar regions within the stations were identified.

How to cite: El Hachem, A., Bárdossy, A., Seidel, J., Goshtsasbpour, G., and Haberlandt, U.: Clustering CDF and IDF curves of rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12378, 2021.

EGU21-12026 | vPICO presentations | HS3.5 | Highlight

Spatial clustering of heavy clustering in ERA-5 precipitation over Europe}

Philomène Le Gall, Pauline Rivoire, Anne-Catherine Favre, Philippe Naveau, and Olivia Romppainen-Martius

Extreme precipitation often cause floods and lead to important societal and economical damages. Rainfall is subject to local orography features and their intensities can be highly variable. In this context, identifying climatically coherent regions for extremes is paramount to understand and analyze rainfall at the correct spatial scale. We assume that the region of interest can be partitioned into homogeneous regions. In other words, sub-regions with common marginal distribution except a scale factor. As an example, considering extremes as block maxima or excesses over a threshold, a sub-region corresponds to a constant shape parameter. We develop a non-parametric clustering algorithm based on a ratio of Probability Weighted Moments to identify these homogeneous regions and gather weather stations. By construction this ratio does not depend on the location and scale parameters for the Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions. Our method has the advantage to only rely on raw precipitation data and not on station covariates.

A simulation data study is performed based on the extended GPD distribution that appears to well capture low, moderate and heavy rainfall intensities. Sensitivity to the number of clusters is analyzed. Results of simulation reveal that the method detects homogeneous regions. We apply our clustering algorithm on ERA-5 precipitation over Europe. We obtain coherent homogeneous regions consistent with local orography. The marginal precipitation behaviour is analyzed through regional fitting of an extended GPD.

How to cite: Le Gall, P., Rivoire, P., Favre, A.-C., Naveau, P., and Romppainen-Martius, O.: Spatial clustering of heavy clustering in ERA-5 precipitation over Europe}, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12026, 2021.

HS3.8 – Advances in diagnostics, sensitivity, uncertainty analysis, and hypothesis testing of Earth and environmental systems models

EGU21-517 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Stochastic watershed models using a logarithmic transformation of ratio residuals

William Farmer, Ghazal Shabestanipour, Jonathan Lamontagne, and Richard Vogel

There is an increasing need to develop stochastic watershed models using post-processing methods to generate stochastic streamflow ensembles from deterministic watershed models (DWMs).  Stochastic streamflow ensembles are needed for a wide variety of water resource planning applications relating to both short-term forecasting and long-range simulation. Current methods often involve post-processing of ordinary, differenced residuals defined as the difference between the simulations (S) and observations (O). However, ordinary, differenced residuals from daily and sub-daily DWMs exhibit a high degree of non-normality, heteroscedasticity, and stochastic persistence leading to the need for extremely complex post-processing methods. Using deterministic simulations of daily streamflow at over 1,400 sites across the United States, we document that logarithmically transformed ratio residuals – defined as the natural log of the quotient of S divided by O –  are approximately homoscedastic, are approximately normally distributed, and can be well-represented as an autoregressive process. These characteristics make them preferable to ordinary, differenced residuals for post-processing DWMs. Though issues with seasonal fluctuation and long-term persistence are not fully resolved, this simple transformation addresses much of the stochastic complexity of the residuals from a deterministic watershed model and produces streamflow ensemble simulations that more accurately replicate essential elements of the statistical distributions of streamflow (including design events, higher-order moments and extreme values). The use of this transformation and autoregressive models demonstrates that more accurate stochastic modeling of natural resources phenomena can be achieved with relatively elegant solutions to support natural resource management in the past, present and future.

How to cite: Farmer, W., Shabestanipour, G., Lamontagne, J., and Vogel, R.: Stochastic watershed models using a logarithmic transformation of ratio residuals, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-517, 2021.

EGU21-7949 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Deployment, calibration, and efficiency of SHUD model in cold and arid watersheds

Lele Shu, Hao Chen, and Xianhong Meng

The hydrologic model is ideal for experimenting and understanding the water movement and storage in a watershed from the upper mountain to the river outlet. Nevertheless, the model's performance, suitability, and data availability are the primary challenge for a modeler. This study introduces the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD), a surface-subsurface integrated hydrological model using the semi-discrete Finite Volume Method. Though the SHUD applies a fine time-step (in minutes) and flexible spatial domain decomposition (m to km) to simulate the fully coupled surface-subsurface hydrology, the model can solve the watershed-scale problem efficiently and dependably. Plenty of applications in the USA proved the SHUD model's performance and suitability in the humid and data-rich watersheds.  

In this research, we demonstrate the SHUD model deployment in two data-scarce watersheds in the northwest of China with global datasets, validate the simulations against local observational data, and assess the SHUD model's efficiency and suitability.  The one is the Upstream Heihe River (UHR), which is a typical semi-arid mountainous watershed.  The other is Yellow River Source (YRS), the upstream of Yellow River, contributing more than 50% of total discharge. The results, figures, and analysis based on SHUD simulations under global datasets highlight the model's suitability and efficiency in data-limited watersheds, even ungaged ones. The SHUD model is a useful modeling platform for hydrology and water-related coupling studies.

How to cite: Shu, L., Chen, H., and Meng, X.: Deployment, calibration, and efficiency of SHUD model in cold and arid watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7949, 2021.

EGU21-8244 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Multi-objective parameter optimization of the HYPE model using shuffled frog-leaping algorithm

Xinyu Li, Prajna Kasargodu Anebgailu, and Jörg Dietrich

The calibration of hydrological models using bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization techniques has been extensively tested to find the optimal parameters for hydrological models. Shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is a population-based cooperative search technique containing virtual interactive frogs distributed into multiple memeplexes. The frogs search locally in each memeplex and are periodically shuffled into new memeplexes to ensure global exploration. Though it is developed for discrete optimization, it can be used to solve multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems as well.

In this study, a hydrological catchment model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) is calibrated for streamflow and nitrate concentration in the catchment using SFLA. HYPE is a semi-distributed watershed model that simulates runoff and other hydrological processes based on physical as well as conceptual laws. SFLA with 200 runtimes and 5 memeplexes containing 10 frogs each is used to calibrate 22 model parameters. It is compared with manual calibration and Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DEMC) method from the HYPE-tool. The preliminary results of the statistical performance measures for streamflow calibration show that SFLA has the fastest convergence speed and higher stability when compared with the DEMC method. NSE of 0.68 and PBIAS of 7.72 are recorded for the best run of SFLA during the calibration of streamflow. In comparison, the HYPE-tool DEMC produced the best NSE of 0.45 and a PBIAS of -3.37 while the manual calibration resulted in NSE of 0.64 and PBIAS of 2.01.

How to cite: Li, X., Kasargodu Anebgailu, P., and Dietrich, J.: Multi-objective parameter optimization of the HYPE model using shuffled frog-leaping algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8244, 2021.

EGU21-8986 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Influence of calibration period length on predictions of evaporation 

Chengcheng Gong, Wenke Wang, Zaiyong Zhang, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Fabien Cochand, and Philip Brunner

Bare soil evaporation is a key component of the soil water balance. Accurate estimation of evaporation is thus critical for sustainable water resources management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Numerical models are widely used for estimating bare soil evaporation. Although models allow exploring evaporation dynamics under different hydrological and climatic conditions, their robustness is linked to the reliability of the imposed parameters. These parameters are typically obtained through model calibration. Even if a perfect match between observed and simulated variables is obtained, the predictions are not necessarily reliable. This can be related to model structural errors, or because the inverse problem is ill-posed. While this is conceptually very well known, it remains unclear how the temporal resolution and length of the employed observations for the calibration influence the reliability of the parameters and the predictions.

We used data from a lysimeter experiment in the Guanzhong Basin, China to systematically explore the influence of the calibration period length on the calibrated parameters and uncertainty of evaporation predictions. Soil water content dynamics and water level were monitored every 5 minutes. We set up twelve models using the fully coupled, physically-based HydroGeoSphere model with different calibration period lengths (one month, three months, six months, fourteen months). The estimated evaporation rates by the models for the calibration period and validation period were compared with the measured evaporation rates. Also, we predict cumulative, one-year evaporation rates. The uncertainty of the predictive evaporation by these models from different calibration lengths is quantified. Several key conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The extinction depth is a very important parameter for the soil water content dynamics in the vadose zone but is poorly informed unless the calibration includes significantly different depths to groundwater. (2) Using the longer calibration period length (six months or fourteen months) did not necessarily result in more reliable predictions of evaporation rates. (3) Preliminary results indicate that the uncertainty can be reduced if the calibration period includes both climatic forcing similar to the prediction, but additionally also feature similar water table conditions during calibration and prediction. Our results have implications for reducing uncertainty using unsaturated-saturated models to predict evaporation.

How to cite: Gong, C., Wang, W., Zhang, Z., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Cochand, F., and Brunner, P.: Influence of calibration period length on predictions of evaporation , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8986, 2021.

EGU21-9284 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Improving continental scale hydrological model performance and stability under variable climate conditions in order to improve the assessment of future water resources

Wendy Sharples, Andrew Frost, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Ashkan Shokri, Louise Wilson, and Elisabeth Vogel

Ensuring future water security in a changing climate is becoming a top priority for Australia, which is already dealing with the ongoing socio-economic and environmental impacts from record-breaking bushfires, infrastructure damage from recent flash flooding events, and the prospect of continuing compromised water sources in both regional towns and large cities into the future. In response to these significant impacts the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is providing a hydrological projections service, using their national operational hydrological model (The Australian Water Resources Assessment model: AWRA-L, www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape), to project future hydrological fluxes and states using downscaled meteorological inputs from an ensemble of curated global climate models and emissions scenarios at a resolution of 5km out to the end of this century.

Continental model calibration using a long record of Australian observational data has been employed across components of the water balance, to tune the model parameters to Australia's varied hydro-climate, thereby reducing uncertainty associated with inputs and hydrological model structure. This approach has been shown to improve the accuracy of simulated hydrological fields, and the skill of short term and seasonal forecasts. However, in order to improve model performance and stability for use in hydrological projections, it is desirable to choose a model parameterization which produces reasonable hydrological responses under conditions of climate variability as well as under historical conditions. To this end we have developed a two-stage approach: Firstly, a variance based sensitivity analysis for water balance components (e.g. ephemeral flow, average to high flow, recharge, soil moisture and evapotranspiration) is performed, to rank the most influential parameters affecting water balance components. Parameters which are insensitive across components are then fixed to a previously optimized value, decreasing the number of calibratable parameters in order to decrease dimensionality and uncertainty in the calibration process. Secondly, a model configured with reduced calibratable parameters is put through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA, www.borgmoea.org), to capture the tradeoffs between the water balance component performance objectives under climate variable conditions (e.g. wet, dry and historical) and across climate regions derived from the natural resource management model (https://nrmregionsaustralia.com.au/).

The decreased dimensionality is shown to improve the stability and robustness of the existing calibration routine (shuffled complex evolution) as well as the multi-objective routine. Upon examination of the tradeoffs between the water balance component objective functions and in-situ validation data under historical, wet and dry periods and across different Australian climate regions, we show there is no one size fits all parameter set continentally, and thus some concessions need to be made in choosing a suitable model parameterization. However, future work could include developing a set of parameters which suit specific regions or climate conditions in Australia. The approach outlined in this study could be employed to improve confidence in any hydrological model used to simulate the future impacts of climate change. 

How to cite: Sharples, W., Frost, A., Bende-Michl, U., Shokri, A., Wilson, L., and Vogel, E.: Improving continental scale hydrological model performance and stability under variable climate conditions in order to improve the assessment of future water resources, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9284, 2021.

EGU21-14768 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

On the use of inverse modeling to improve subsurface drainage simulations

Samy Chelil, Hind Oubanas, Hocine Henine, Igor Gejadze, Pierre Olivier Malaterre, and Julien Tournebize

The application of inverse modeling approaches has been expanded to the field of hydrology this last decade. Here, the inverse modeling has been used to adjust the input parameters of a new agricultural subsurface drainage model (SIDRA-RU) using observations of the model output. SIDRA-RU is a semi-conceptual and semi-analytical model that transforms the rainfall into a daily drainage discharge. The model is divided into two modules. The first one consists of a conceptual reservoir that converts the net rainfall into recharge; the second module simulates the drainage discharge and the water table level above the mid-drains, based on the resolution of the Boussinesq equation.

The adjoint model of SIDRA-RU has been successfully generated by means of the automatic differentiation tool (TAPENADE). First, this adjoint model is used to explore the local and global adjoint sensitivities of the valuable function defined over the drainage discharge simulations (model output), with respect to the model input parameters. Next, the most influential parameters are estimated using both the classical calibration algorithm (PAP-GR) and the variational data assimilation method (4D-VAR). For the latter method, a simple stochastic procedure has been proposed to avoid trapping the minimization process in the local minimum points.

Our results have shown that the quality of the drainage discharge simulations obtained using the 4DVAR method is better than the ones performed by the PAP-GR calibration algorithm, in terms of the water balance in particular. Indeed, less than 5 mm of the cumulative discrepancy was registered between simulated and observed water volume based on the five-year daily drainage discharge data of the Chantemerle agricultural field. However, some numerical tests, conducted to investigate the convergence of the variational calibration method, indicate the potential presence of the equifinality issues. This could be highlighted by the self-compensation of the physical soil parameters (Ksat and µ) and those managing the conceptual SIDRA-RU reservoir (Sinter and SSDI). The performed sensitivity analysis has shown that the parameters having the most impact on the drainage discharge are those controlling the nervousness and recession of the water level in soils followed by those managing the start of the drainage season.

How to cite: Chelil, S., Oubanas, H., Henine, H., Gejadze, I., Malaterre, P. O., and Tournebize, J.: On the use of inverse modeling to improve subsurface drainage simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14768, 2021.

EGU21-15061 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Optimal sensor placement method for wastewater treatment plants based on discrete multi-objective state transition algorithm

Wenting Li, Chunhua Yang, Jie Han, Fengxue Zhang, Lijuan Lan, and Yonggang Li

Municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) reuse domestic sewage, industrial wastewater, and rainfall runoff to realize sustainable utilization of fresh water resources. In order to guarantee the safety, reliability, and profitability of the WWTP, efficient process monitoring and control is becoming increasingly important. However, due to the economic and technical requirements, it is infeasible to place sensors at every process parameter location. Therefore, it is necessary to design the optimal sensor placement scheme which leads to maximum information gain about the plant conditions. Practical issues present in the WWTP, such as harsh physical conditions, fluctuation of water quantity, and variability in process parameters, make the optimal sensor placement problem an especially complicated one. Furthermore, sensors placement problem contains multiple objectives with complex nonlinear relationship. This study focuses on obtaining the optimal flow sensor placement scheme of the WWTP in terms of cost, information richness and redundancy. First, based on the graph theory and structural observability and redundancy criteria, a WWTP system model is constructed. Next, an industrial condition weighting factor setting strategy is introduced to measure the importance of the variables in different processing units, transforming the optimal flow sensor placement problem in the whole process into a discrete multi-objective optimization problem. Then, a novel metaheuristic method named discrete multi-objective state transition algorithm (DMOSTA) is proposed to obtain optimal trade-off solution set. Finally, an evaluation strategy is applied to select the best flow sensor placement scheme from the solution set. The proposed method is applied to three WWTPs with different dimensions. Comparative results show that the optimal flow sensor placement scheme based on the proposed method has the best comprehensive performance in regard to senor cost, process variable observability, sensor redundancy, and computational cost.

How to cite: Li, W., Yang, C., Han, J., Zhang, F., Lan, L., and Li, Y.: Optimal sensor placement method for wastewater treatment plants based on discrete multi-objective state transition algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15061, 2021.

EGU21-7962 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to improve model parameter estimates and predictions of silage maize phenology in Germany

Michelle Viswanathan, Tobias KD Weber, Andreas Scheidegger, and Thilo Streck

Crop models are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security by simulating plant phenology, yield, biomass and leaf area index. Plant phenology defines the timing of crucial growth stages and physiological processes that influence organ appearance and assimilate partitioning. It is governed by environmental factors such as solar radiation, temperature and water availability. Plant phenology is not only specific for the crop species, but also depends on the cultivar. Additionally, growth of a cultivar could vary depending on the environment. Common crop models cannot fully capture the influence of the environment on phenology, resulting in cultivar-specific parameters that are environment-dependent. These parameter estimates may be unreliable in case of limited data. Moreover, crucial species-specific information is ignored. On the other hand, in large regional-scale models covering multiple cultivars and environments, information about the cultivars grown is generally not available. In this case, a shared set of parameters for the crop species would suppress within-species differences leading to unreliable predictions.

A Bayesian hierarchical framework enables us to alleviate these problems by honouring the multi-level data structure. Additionally, we can reflect the uncertainty from different sources, for example, model inputs and measurements. In this study we implement a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate parameters of the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere System Simulation (SPASS) model for simulating phenological development of different cultivars of silage maize grown over all the contrasting climatological regions of Germany.

We used data from the German weather service on the phenological development stages of silage maize grown across Germany between 2009 and 2019. During this period, silage maize was grown in over 3000 unique location-year combinations. Maize crops were differentiated into early, mid-early, mid-late and late ripening groups and were further classified into cultivars within each ripening group. Within the hierarchical framework, we estimate maize species-specific parameters as well as parameters per ripening group and cultivar, through Bayesian model calibration. We analyse the influence of environmental conditions on parameter estimates, to further develop the hierarchical structure. We perform cross-validation to assess the prediction quality of the parameterized model.

With this approach, we show that robust parameter estimates account for differences between cultivars, ripening groups as well as different environmental conditions. The parameterized model can be used for large-scale phenology predictions of silage maize grown across Germany. These parameter estimates may perform better than independent species- or cultivar-specific estimates, in predicting phenology of future cultivars where specific cultivar characteristics are not known.

How to cite: Viswanathan, M., Weber, T. K., Scheidegger, A., and Streck, T.: A Bayesian hierarchical approach to improve model parameter estimates and predictions of silage maize phenology in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7962, 2021.

EGU21-2560 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Novel MCMC methods for Bayesian inference of spatial parameter fields

Sebastian Reuschen, Teng Xu, Fabian Jobst, and Wolfgang Nowak

Geostatistical inference (or inversion) methods are commonly used to estimate the spatial distribution of heterogeneous soil properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) from indirect measurements (e.g., piezometric heads). One approach is to use Bayesian inversion to combine prior assumptions (prior models) with indirect measurements to predict soil parameters and their uncertainty, which can be expressed in form of a posterior parameter distribution. This approach is mathematically rigorous and elegant, but has a disadvantage. In realistic settings, analytical solutions do not exist, and numerical evaluation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can become computationally prohibitive. Especially when treating spatially distributed parameters for heterogeneous materials, constructing efficient MCMC methods is a major challenge.

Here, we present two novel MCMC methods that extend and combine existing MCMC algorithms to speed up convergence for spatial parameter fields. First, we present the sequential pCN-MCMC, which is a combination of the sequential Gibbs sampler, and the pCN-MCMC. This sequential pCN-MCMC is more efficient (faster convergence) than existing methods. It can be used for Bayesian inversion of multi-Gaussian prior models, often used in single-facies systems. Second, we present the parallel-tempering sequential Gibbs MCMC. This MCMC variant enables realistic inversion of multi-facies systems. By this, we mean systems with several facies in which we model the spatial position of facies (via training images and multiple point geostatistics) and the internal heterogeneity per facies (via multi-Gaussian fields). The proposed MCMC version is the first efficient method to find the posterior parameter distribution for such multi-facies systems with internal heterogeneities.

We demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the two proposed methods on hydro-geological synthetic test problems and show that they outperform existing state of the art MCMC methods. With the two proposed MCMCs, we enable modellers to perform (1) faster Bayesian inversion of multi-Gaussian random fields for single-facies systems and (2) Bayesian inversion of more realistic fields for multi-facies systems with internal heterogeneity at affordable computational effort.

How to cite: Reuschen, S., Xu, T., Jobst, F., and Nowak, W.: Novel MCMC methods for Bayesian inference of spatial parameter fields, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2560, 2021.

EGU21-8381 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

The Method of Forced Probabilities: a Computation Trick for Bayesian Model Evidence

Peter Walter, Ishani Banerjee, Anneli Guthke, Kevin Mumford, and Wolfgang Nowak

Bayesian model selection (BMS) can be used to objectively rank competing models of different structure and with different parameters upon comparison with validation data sets. This technique requires the evaluation of Bayesian Model Evidence (BME). BME is the likelihood of the data to occur under the assumed models, where the likelihood is averaged over the probability distribution of the model and its parameters.

Exact and fast analytical solutions for BME exist only with strong assumptions. For that reason, other techniques and approximations for BMS/BME have been developed. While mathematical approximations via information criteria may suffer from strong biases in real-world applications, numerical methods do not rely on any assumptions but require high computational effort. This becomes prohibitive if the data set is very large, e.g. highly resolved in space and time.

To still enable the use of BME as a probabilistic and rigorous model performance metric, we have developed the “Method of Forced Probabilities”: this method is a fast way to numerically compute BME for models that predict time series and fulfill the Markov Chain property in time. The core idea is to swap the direction of evaluation: instead of comparing thousands of forward runs of the model with the observed data (many model runs on random parameter realizations), we force the model to follow the data during each time step and record the individual probabilities of the model performing these exact transitions (single evaluation).

As a test case for demonstration, we use invasion percolation (IP) models to simulate multiphase flow in porous media. The underlying, highly resolved data set was obtained from an experiment of a slow gas injection into water-saturated, homogeneous sand in a 25cmx25cm acrylic glass cell. Images were obtained at a rate of 30 images per second using the light transmission technique. Since IP models fulfill the Markov chain property, the Method of Forced Probabilities can be applied to evaluate their BME. Results confirm that the proposed method presents a scalable, inexpensive alternative to standard Monte Carlo methods for analyzing the model-data mismatch.

How to cite: Walter, P., Banerjee, I., Guthke, A., Mumford, K., and Nowak, W.: The Method of Forced Probabilities: a Computation Trick for Bayesian Model Evidence, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8381, 2021.

EGU21-993 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Separation of Structural and Measurement Uncertainties in Watershed Hydrological Models

Abhinav Gupta, Ganeshchandra Mallya, and Rao Govindaraju

A hydrological model incurs three types of uncertainties: measurement, structural and parametric uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty exists due to errors in the measurements of rainfall and streamflow data. Structural uncertainty exists due to errors in the mathematical representation of hydrological processes. Parametric uncertainty is a consequence of limited data available to calibrate the model, and measurement and structural uncertainties.

Recently, separation of structural and measurement uncertainties was identified as one of the twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology. The information about measurement and structural uncertainties is typically available in the form of residual time-series, that is, the difference between observed and simulated streamflow time-series. The residual time-series, however, provides only an aggregate measure of measurement and structural uncertainties. Thus, the measurement and structural uncertainties are inseparable without additional information. In this study, we used random forest (RF) algorithm to gather additional information about measurement uncertainties using hydrological data across several watersheds. Subsequently, the uncertainty bounds obtained by RF were compared against the uncertainty bounds obtained by two other methods: rating-curve analysis and recently proposed runoff-coefficient method. Rating curve analysis yields uncertainty in streamflow measurements only and the runoff-coefficient yields uncertainty in both rainfall and streamflow measurements. The results of the study are promising in terms of using data across different watersheds for the construction of measurement uncertainty bounds. The preliminary results of this study will be presented in the meeting.

How to cite: Gupta, A., Mallya, G., and Govindaraju, R.: Separation of Structural and Measurement Uncertainties in Watershed Hydrological Models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-993, 2021.

EGU21-15768 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

An empirical study on the GEOtop hydrological model optimal estimation and uncertainty reduction using supercomputers

Giacomo Bertoldi, Stefano Campanella, Emanuele Cordano, and Alberto Sartori

Proper characterization of uncertainty remains a major research and operational challenge in Earth and Environmental Systems Models (EESMs). In fact, model calibration is often more an art than a science: one must make several discretionary choices, guided more by his own experience and intuition than by the scientific method. In practice, this means that the result of calibration (CA) could be suboptimal. One of the challenges of CA is the large number of parameters involved in EESM, which hence are usually selected with the help of a preliminary sensitivity analysis (SA). Finally, the computational burden of EESMs models and the large volume of the search space make SA and CA very time-consuming processes.

This work applies a modern HPC approach to optimize a complex, over parameterized hydrological model, improving the computational efficiency of SA/CA. We apply the derivative-free optimization algorithms implemented in the Facebook Nevergrad Python library (Rapin and Teytaud, 2018) on a HPC cluster, thanks to the Dask framework (Dask Development Team, 2016).

The approach has been applied to the GEOtop hydrological model (Rigon et al., 2006; Endrizzi et al., 2014) to predict the time evolution of variables as soil water content and evapotranspiration for several mountain agricultural sites in South Tyrol with different elevation, land cover (pasture, meadow, orchard), soil types.

We performed simulations on one-dimensional domains, where the model solves the energy and water budget equations in a column of soil and neglects the lateral water fluxes.  Even neglecting the distribution of parameters across layers of soil, considering a homogeneous column, one has tens of parameters, controlling soil and vegetation properties, where only a few of them are experimentally available. 

Because the interpretation of global SA could be difficult or misleading and the number of model evaluations needed by SA is comparable with CA, we employed the following strategy. We performed CA using a full set of continuous parameters and SA after CA, using the samples collected during CA, to interpret the results. However, given the above-mentioned computational challenges, this strategy is possible only using HPC resources. For this reason, we focused on the computational aspects of calibration from an HPC perspective and examined the scaling of these algorithms and their implementation up to 1024 cores on a cluster. Other issues that we had to address were the complex shape of the search space and robustness of CA and SA against model convergence failure.

HPC  techniques allow to calibrate models with a high number of parameters within a reasonable computing time and  exploring the parameters space properly. This is particularly important with noisy, multimodal objective functions. In our case, HPC was essential to determine the  parameters controlling the water retention curve, which is highly not linear.  The developed  framework, which is published and freely available on GitHub, shows also how libraries and tools used within the machine learning community could be useful and easily adapted to EESMs CA.

How to cite: Bertoldi, G., Campanella, S., Cordano, E., and Sartori, A.: An empirical study on the GEOtop hydrological model optimal estimation and uncertainty reduction using supercomputers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15768, 2021.

Semi-distributed rainfall runoff models are widely used in hydrology, offering a compromise between the computational efficiency of lumped models and the representation of spatial heterogeneity offered by fully distributed models. In semi-distribute models, the catchment is divided into subcatchments, which are used as the basis for aggregating spatial characteristics. During model development, uncertainty is usually estimated from literature, however, subcatchment uncertainty is closely related to subcatchment size and level of spatial heterogeneity. Currently, there is no widely accepted systematic method for determining subcatchment size. Typically, subcatchment discretisation is a function of the spatiotemporal resolution of the available data. In our research, we evaluate the relationship between lumped parameter uncertainty and subcatchment size. Models with small subcatchments are expected to have low spatial uncertainty, as the spatial heterogeneity per subcatchment is also low. As subcatchment size increases, as does spatial uncertainty. Our objectives are to study the trade-off between subcatchment size, parameter uncertainty, and computational expense, to outline a systematic and precise framework for subcatchment discretisation. A proof of concept is presented using the Stormwater Management Model (EPA-SWMM) platform, to study a semi-urban catchment in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. Automated model creation is used to create catchment models with varying subcatchment sizes. For each model variation, uncertainty is estimated using spatial statistical bootstrapping. Applying bootstrapping to the spatial parameters directly provides a model free method for calculating the uncertainty of sample estimates. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate uncertainty through the model and spatial resolution is assessed using performance criteria including the percentage of observations captured by the uncertainty envelope, the mean uncertainty envelope width, and rank histograms. The computational expense of simulations is tracked across the varying spatial resolution, achieved through subcatchment discretisation. Initial results suggest that uncertainty estimates often disagree with typical values listed in literature and vary significantly with respect to subcatchment size; this has significant implications on model calibration.

How to cite: Snieder, E. and Khan, U.: Spatial bootstrapping for model-free estimation of subcatchment parameter uncertainty for a semi-distributed rainfall runoff model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10361, 2021.

EGU21-6131 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of a repository model using different types of transformations and metamodeling techniques

Sabine M. Spiessl, Dirk-A. Becker, and Sergei Kucherenko

Due to their highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even discontinuous behavior, sensitivity analysis of final repository models can be a demanding task. Most of the output of repository models is typically distributed over several orders of magnitude and highly skewed. Many values of a probabilistic investigation are very low or even zero. Although this is desirable in view of repository safety it can distort the evidence of sensitivity analysis. For the safety assessment of the system, the highest values of outputs are mainly essential and if those are only a few, their dependence on specific parameters may appear insignificant. By applying a transformation, different model output values are differently weighed, according to their magnitude, in sensitivity analysis. Probabilistic methods of higher-order sensitivity analysis, applied on appropriately transformed model output values, provide a possibility for more robust identification of relevant parameters and their interactions. This type of sensitivity analysis is typically done by decomposing the total unconditional variance of the model output into partial variances corresponding to different terms in the ANOVA decomposition. From this, sensitivity indices of increasing order can be computed. The key indices used most often are the first-order index (SI1) and the total-order index (SIT). SI1 refers to the individual impact of one parameter on the model and SIT represents the total effect of one parameter on the output in interactions with all other parameters. The second-order sensitivity indices (SI2) describe the interactions between two model parameters.

In this work global sensitivity analysis has been performed with three different kinds of output transformations (log, shifted and Box-Cox transformation) and two metamodeling approaches, namely the Random-Sampling High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR) [1] and the Bayesian Sparse PCE (BSPCE) [2] approaches. Both approaches are implemented in the SobolGSA software [3, 4] which was used in this work. We analyzed the time-dependent output with two approaches for sensitivity analysis, i.e., the pointwise and generalized approaches. With the pointwise approach, the output at each time step is analyzed independently. The generalized approach considers averaged output contributions at all previous time steps in the analysis of the current step. Obtained results indicate that robustness can be improved by using appropriate transformations and choice of coefficients for the transformation and the metamodel.

[1] M. Zuniga, S. Kucherenko, N. Shah (2013). Metamodelling with independent and dependent inputs. Computer Physics Communications, 184 (6): 1570-1580.

[2] Q. Shao, A. Younes, M. Fahs, T.A. Mara (2017). Bayesian sparse polynomial chaos expansion for global sensitivity analysis. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 318: 474-496.

[3] S. M. Spiessl, S. Kucherenko, D.-A. Becker, O. Zaccheus (2018). Higher-order sensitivity analysis of a final repository model with discontinuous behaviour. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.004.

[4] SobolGSA software (2021). User manual https://www.imperial.ac.uk/process-systems-engineering/research/free-software/sobolgsa-software/.

How to cite: Spiessl, S. M., Becker, D.-A., and Kucherenko, S.: Comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of a repository model using different types of transformations and metamodeling techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6131, 2021.

EGU21-3446 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8

Identification of dominant hydrological mechanisms using Bayesian inference, multiple statistical hypothesis testing and flexible models

Cristina Prieto, Dmitri Kavetski, Nataliya Nataliya Le Vine, César Álvarez, and Raúl Medina

In hydrological modelling, the identification of hydrological model mechanisms best suited for representing individual hydrological (physical) processes is a major research and operational challenge. We present a statistical hypothesis-testing perspective to identify dominant hydrological mechanism. The method combines: (i) Bayesian estimation of posterior probabilities of individual mechanisms from a given ensemble of model structures; (ii) a test statistic that defines a “dominant” mechanism as a mechanism more probable than all its alternatives given observed data; (iii) a flexible modelling framework to generate model structures using combinations of available mechanisms. The uncertainty in the test statistic is approximated via bootstrap from the ensemble of model structures. Synthetic and real data experiments are conducted using 624 model structures from the hydrological modelling system FUSE and data from the Leizarán catchment in northern Spain. The findings show that the mechanism identification method is reliable: it identifies the correct mechanism as dominant in all synthetic trials where an identification is made. As data/model errors increase, statistical power (identifiability) decreases, manifesting as trials where no mechanism is identified as dominant. The real data case study results are broadly consistent with the synthetic analysis, with dominant mechanisms identified for 4 of 7 processes. Insights on which processes are most/least identifiable are also reported. The mechanism identification method is expected to contribute to broader community efforts on improving model identification and process representation in hydrology.

How to cite: Prieto, C., Kavetski, D., Nataliya Le Vine, N., Álvarez, C., and Medina, R.: Identification of dominant hydrological mechanisms using Bayesian inference, multiple statistical hypothesis testing and flexible models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3446, 2021.

EGU21-2467 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8 | Highlight

The impact of modelling decisions in hydrological modelling

Janneke Remmers, Ryan Teuling, and Lieke Melsen

Scientific hydrological modellers make multiple decisions during the modelling process, e.g. related to the calibration period and performance metrics. These decisions affect the model results differently. Modelling decisions can refer to several steps in the modelling process. In this project, modelling decisions refer to the decisions made during the whole modelling process, not just the definition of the model structure. Each model output is a hypothesis of the reality; it is an interpretation of the real system underpinned by scientific reasoning and/or expert knowledge. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding about which modelling decisions are taken and why they are taken. Consequently, the influence of modelling decisions is unknown. Quantifying this influence, which is done in this study, can raise awareness among scientists. This study is based on analysis of interviews with scientific hydrological modellers, thus taking actual practices into account. Different modelling decisions were identified from the interviews, which are subsequently implemented and evaluated in a controlled modelling environment, in our case the modular modelling framework Raven. The variation in the results is analysed to determine which decisions affect the results and how they affect the results. This study pinpoints what aspects are important to consider in studying modelling decisions, and can be an incentive to clarify and improve modelling procedures.

How to cite: Remmers, J., Teuling, R., and Melsen, L.: The impact of modelling decisions in hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2467, 2021.

EGU21-12232 | vPICO presentations | HS3.8 | Highlight

How good does Automatic Model Structure Identification work? A Benchmark Study with 6915 Model Structures.

Diana Spieler and Niels Schütze

Recent investigations have shown it is possible to simultaneously calibrate model structures and model parameters to identify appropriate models for a given task (Spieler et al., 2020). However, this is computationally challenging, as different model structures may use a different number of parameters. While some parameters may be shared between model structures, others might be relevant for only a few structures, which theoretically requires the calibration of conditionally active parameters. Additionally, shared model parameters might cause different effects in different model structures, causing their optimal values to differ across structures. In this study, we tested how two current “of the shelf” mixed-integer optimization algorithms perform when having to handle these peculiarities during the automatic model structure identification (AMSI) process recently introduced by Spieler et al. (2020).

To validate the current performance of the AMSI approach, we conduct a benchmark experiment with a model space consisting of 6912 different model structures.  First, all model structures are independently calibrated and validated for three hydro-climatically differing catchments using the CMA-ES algorithm and KGE as the objective function. This is referred to as standard calibration procedure. We identify the best performing model structure(s) based on validation performance and analyze the range of performance as well as the number of structures performing in a similar range. Secondly, we run AMSI on all three catchments to automatically identify the most feasible model structure based on the KGE performance. Two different mixed-integer optimization algorithms are used – namely DDS and CMA-ES. Afterwards, we compare the results to the best performing models of the standard calibration of all 6912 model structures.

Within this experimental setup, we analyze if the best performing model structure(s) AMSI identifies are identical to the best performing structures of the standard calibration and if there are differences in performance when using different optimization algorithms for AMSI. We also validate if AMSI can identify the best performing model structures for a catchment at a fraction of the computational cost than the standard calibration procedure requires by using “off the shelf” mixed-integer optimization algorithms.

 

 

 

Spieler, D., Mai, J., Craig, J. R., Tolson, B. A., & Schütze, N. (2020). Automatic Model Structure Identification for Conceptual Hydrologic Models. Water Resources Research, 56(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR027009

How to cite: Spieler, D. and Schütze, N.: How good does Automatic Model Structure Identification work? A Benchmark Study with 6915 Model Structures., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12232, 2021.

The hydrological cycle is governed by a number of complex processes which occur at different spatial and temporal scales. Hydrological modelling plays an integral role in enhancing the understanding of hydrological behaviour and process complexities at a range of scales. Different hydrological models have various strengths in the representation of hydrological processes. The performance and applicability of each hydrological model can differ between catchments due to several catchment characteristics and dominant hydrological processes. With a wide variety of model structures, it is important to evaluate how different hydrological models capture the process dynamics in various catchments. This study aims at a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of two widely used hydrological models, namely, the HEC-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, in simulating various water balance components in the sub-catchments of the Cauvery River Basin which is a major river basin in Peninsular India. The basin is characterized by extensive regional variability in land use patterns, water availability, and water demands. The chosen models differ in their model structure complexities, methods adopted for simulation of water balance components, and the representation of geographical information, meteorological and physiographical inputs. The models are calibrated with respect to the observed streamflow at various gauge locations, and the simulated water balance components such as evapotranspiration and baseflow are assessed at annual and seasonal time scales. Also, the impact of the representation of the spatial distribution of input variables and model parameters (lumped versus distributed) are evaluated among the models. This work provides valuable insights into the applicability of various hydrological models in simulating hydrological processes in catchments with high regional complexities. Also, this work aids in the identification of effective models and model parameters which can be useful for hydrological data transfers between catchments as well as predictions in ungauged basins.

How to cite: Reghunath, G. and Mujumdar, P.: A comparative assessment of HEC-HMS and VIC hydrological models for simulating hydrological processes in Cauvery River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14161, 2021.

HS4.1 – Flash floods and rainfall induced hydro-geomorphic hazards: from observation to forecasting and warning

EGU21-6127 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

A climatological approach for operational radar rainfall bias correction 

Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet

Most radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products systematically deviate from the true rainfall amount. This makes radar QPE adjustments unavoidable for operational use in hydro-meteorological (forecasting) models. Most correction methods require a timely available, high-density network of quality-controlled rain gauge observations. Here, we introduce a set of fixed bias reduction factors for the Netherlands, which vary per grid cell and day of the year. With this approach, we aim to provide an alternative to current practice, because the climatological factors are both operationally available and independent of the real-time rain gauge availability.

The correction factors were based on 10 years of 5-min radar QPE and reference rainfall data. We tested this method on the resulting rainfall estimates and subsequent discharge simulations for twelve Dutch catchment and polder areas. In addition, we compared the results to the operational mean field bias (MFB) corrected rainfall estimates and a reference dataset. This reference consisted of the radar QPE, spatially adjusted with a network of 356 validated rain gauge observations. Of this network, only 31 are automatic gauges. Hence, only these were available in real-time for the operational MFB corrections.

The climatological correction factors show clear spatial and temporal patterns. The factors are higher far from the radars and higher during winter than in summer. The latter pattern is likely a result of sampling above the melting layer during the months December–March, which causes higher underestimations. Estimated yearly rainfall sums are generally comparable to the reference and outperform the MFB corrected rainfall estimates for catchments far from the radars (south and east of the country). This difference is absent for catchments closer to the radars, where both products tend to marginally overestimate the rainfall sums. The differences amplify when both QPE products are used to force the hydrologic models. Discharge simulations based on the proposed QPE product outperform the MFB corrected rainfall estimates for all but one basin. Moreover, the climatological factor derivation shows little sensitivity to the moving window length and to leaving individual years out of the training dataset. The presented method provides a robust and straightforward operational alternative. It can serve as a benchmark for further QPE algorithm development in the Netherlands and elsewhere.

How to cite: Imhoff, R., Brauer, C., van Heeringen, K.-J., Leijnse, H., Overeem, A., Weerts, A., and Uijlenhoet, R.: A climatological approach for operational radar rainfall bias correction , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6127, 2021.

 The localized severe heavy rainfalls, which has not been experienced in the past, have frequently occurred in Japan due to the effects of climate change. Especially, the Guerrilla heavy rainfall (abbreviated as GHR) by isolated rapidly growing single cumulonimbus is triggering flash floods in a small river basin and has caused huge damage to human life and property. If we alert the hazardous rainfall in 5 to 10 min earlier for evacuation, we could minimize human injuries such as isolation, death, and disappearance. For hydrometeorological disaster prevention, a system of the early detection and quantitative risk prediction methods is necessary to detect the initial stage of a cumulonimbus cloud before it is generated into heavy rainfall. In previous research, by analyzing the volume scan with some heavy rainfall events, an important sign named as the first echo (Baby-rain cell) was verified. Also, the vertical vortex tubes with positive and negative pairs did exist in the GHR. Most of the severely developed storm had a certain criterion of vertical vorticity. By using those analyses, we developed the early detection and quantitative risk prediction method as follows. We collect the radar variables (i.e. the vorticity, doppler velocity, and reflectivity, etc.) at each event and set the risk level when the maximum rainfall reached the ground. Then, we select an appropriate set of explaining variables considering the risk level. With the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, we could find the most appropriate method to predict the risk level. However, we would like to improve the early detection and quantitative risk prediction method by estimating vertical vorticity, divergence and convergence with real wind field data. So, we apply the multiple-doppler radar analysis to estimate the variables reflecting real phenomena. As a result, the improved early detection and quantitative risk prediction method could predict the risk of GHR development accurately by using only the observed radar data. It is expected that the quantitative risk prediction could represent realistic flood prediction system and increase the leading time enough to reduce disaster.

How to cite: Kim, H. and Nakakita, E.: Improvement of the early detection and quantitative risk prediction method with the three-dimensional wind field from multiple-doppler radar analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6943, 2021.

Short-term precipitation forecast plays a vital role for minimizing the adverse effects of heavy precipitation events such as flash flooding.  Radar rainfall nowcasting techniques based on statistical extrapolations are used to overcome current limitations of precipitation forecasts from numerical weather models, as they provide high spatial and temporal resolutions forecasts within minutes of the observation time. Among various algorithms, the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) provides rainfall fields nowcasts in a probabilistic sense by accounting the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts by means of ensembles, with spatial and temporal characteristic very similar to those in the observed radar rainfall fields. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology uses STEPS to generate ensembles of forecast rainfall ensembles in real-time from its extensive weather radar network. 

In this study, results of a large probabilistic verification exercise to a new version of STEPS (hereafter named STEPS-3) are reported. An extensive dataset of more than 47000 individual 5-minute radar rainfall fields (the equivalent of more than 163 days of rain) from ten weather radars across Australia (covering tropical to mid-latitude regions) were used to generate (and verify) 96-member rainfall ensembles nowcasts with up to a 90-minute lead time. STEPS-3 was found to be more than 15-times faster in delivering results compared with previous version of STEPS and an open-source algorithm called pySTEPS. Interestingly, significant variations were observed in the quality of predictions and verification results from one radar to other, from one event to other, depending on the characteristics and location of the radar, nature of the rainfall event, accumulation threshold and lead time. For example, CRPS and RMSE of ensembles of 5-min rainfall forecasts for radars located in mid-latitude regions are better (lower) than those ones from radars located in tropical areas for all lead-times. Also, rainfall fields from S-band radars seem to produce rainfall forecasts able to successfully identify extreme rainfall events for lead times up to 10 minutes longer than those produced using C-band radar datasets for the same rain rate thresholds. Some details of the new STEPS-3 version, case studies and examples of the verification results will be presented. 

How to cite: Velasco-Forero, C., Pudashine, J., Curtis, M., and Seed, A.: Probabilistic precipitation nowcast for flash flooding purposes across Australia: verification of a new version of Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13673, 2021.

EGU21-14852 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Ensemble strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: the 29 October 2018 event in the Eastern Italian Alps

Teresa Pérez Ciria, Mattia Zaramella, Eleonora Dallan, Lorenzo Giovannini, Dino Zardi, Silvio Davolio, and Marco Borga

On 27-29 October 2018, heavy precipitation over the Eastern Italian Alps (the so-called “Vaia Storm”) led to an extreme flood, causing several casualties and extensive damages to buildings and infrastructures. The event, which occurred at the end of a climatic anomaly of prolonged drought, developed into two phases: a first phase (October 27-28) and a short, but more intense second phase on the 29th. The event was characterized by extreme accumulated precipitation, and several flash floods in the second phase. A previous work focused on the implementation of two NWP models (MOLOCH and WRF) at convection permitting resolution and showed a general good predictability of the precipitation event, associated with a well-defined large-scale forcing. This work aims at providing an outline of the hydrological predictability, focusing on different river systems in the area (the Upper Adige, the Piave and the Bacchiglione-Astico river systems), with different characteristics in terms of drainage areas, elevations and positions within the region hit by the event. For this, the hydro-meteorological forecasting chain includes the two mesoscale models (MOLOCH and WRF), driven by two global analysis systems (GFS-NCEP and IFS-ECMWF), and a grid-based spatially distributed hydrologic model termed GRIS (Grid-based runoff simulation model). We examine different ensemble strategies for the initialization of the hydro-meteorological chain and focus on the assessment of hydrological predictability, paying specific attention to basins with high regulation capacity thanks to the presence of hydropower storage.

How to cite: Pérez Ciria, T., Zaramella, M., Dallan, E., Giovannini, L., Zardi, D., Davolio, S., and Borga, M.: Ensemble strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: the 29 October 2018 event in the Eastern Italian Alps, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14852, 2021.

EGU21-11946 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Evaluation of three short-range (0-6h) rain ensemble forecasts: study of the Aude October 2018 flash floods (southeastern France)

Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Olivier Payrastre, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, François Bouttier, and Hugo Marchal

The Aude river flash floods that occurred on October 15 and 16, 2018 are among the most important in southeastern France in recent years. The triggering rainfall of the event was characterized by a very fast evolution and low predictability. During the night, nearly 243.5mm of rain in 6 hours was recorded near the city of Carcassonne. In addition to significant considerable material damage, 15 people lost their lives during this flood and 99 people were injured. After the event, the CNRM proposed new forecast ensembles, targeting the possibility of short-term nowcasting (0-6h) of this phenomenon. These ensembles are based on the several NWP models of Météo France: the first ensemble corresponds to the operational AROME-PE product (12 members), the second is a combination of the AROME-PE and AROME-PI models (18 members); finally, the last ensemble corresponds to the second one with a spatial perturbation (90 members). In addition to these ensemble forecasts, ANTILOPE J+1 high resolution observed precipitation data are available.  The work presented here aims to evaluate, from a hydrological point of view, these three rainfall ensembles specifically designed to improve short-range rainfall now casting. Based on the CINECAR distributed hydrological model, discharge ensembles are calculated for nearly 1200 sub-watersheds with an elementary drainage area of 5km². These  forecasts  are compared for each sub-basin with the CINECAR simulation obtained with ANTILOPE J+1 rainfall data.This evaluation approach enables to compensate the lack of discharge observations during the event and to enlarge the dataset used for evaluation. The evaluation results presented combine synthetic scores (CRPS and rank diagrams) often used for ensemble forecasts, but also a user-oriented evaluation framework based on threshold exceedance detection and anticipation. Thresholds for each sub-watershed correspond to the 5, 10, 20 and 50 year return period discharges (SHYREG database). ROC curves are at first established independently of the level of anticipation. In a second time, the anticipation delays are analyzed,. This work finally reveals that (1) synthetic ensemble forecast evaluation scores are not always sufficient to evaluate forecasts; (2) the user oriented evaluation shows a clear hierarchy between the three forecast product ensembles in terms of threshold exceedance detection, but not in terms of anticipation levels.

How to cite: Charpentier-Noyer, M., Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., Nicolle, P., Bouttier, F., and Marchal, H.: Evaluation of three short-range (0-6h) rain ensemble forecasts: study of the Aude October 2018 flash floods (southeastern France), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11946, 2021.

EGU21-5502 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Comparison of two flood forecasting approaches over High Atlas Mountains basins in Morocco

El Khalki El Mahdi, Yves Tramblay, Arnau Amengual, Victor Homar, Romualdo Romero, Mohammed El Mehdi Saidi, and Meriem Alaouri

This study aims to compare flood forecasting approaches adapted to the context of Morocco, for two catchments (Rheraya and Ourika) located in the High Atlas Mountains. We evaluated the performances of flash-flood forecasts using two approaches; one relying on event-based hydrological modelling, and the second, a generalized least squares regression model linking event rainfall, antecedent soil moisture and runoff. The meteorological forecasts considered were provided by the AROME (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale), ALADIN (Aire Limited Dynamic Adaptation International Development) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) models. For both approaches, three soil moisture data sources (in-situ measurements, ESA-CCI remote sensing data and ERA5 reanalysis) were compared to estimate the initial soil wetness conditions before flood events. Results showed that the AROME and WRF models better simulate precipitation amounts than ALADIN, mostly due to their better ability to reproduce convective events. The comparison between the two flood forecasting approaches showed that the regression model outperforms the hydrological model-based approach, due to fewer calibration parameters and a better robustness. The best results were obtained with the combination of the WRF forecasts with antecedent soil moisture from ERA5. This type of approach needs to be tested in other basins of North Africa where data are available, in order to develop flood forecasting in these regions, which are strongly vulnerable to flash floods.

How to cite: El Mahdi, E. K., Tramblay, Y., Amengual, A., Homar, V., Romero, R., Saidi, M. E. M., and Alaouri, M.: Comparison of two flood forecasting approaches over High Atlas Mountains basins in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5502, 2021.

EGU21-16063 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1 | Highlight

Advances and challenges of the French operational flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash

Julie Demargne, Catherine Fouchier, Didier Organde, Olivier Piotte, and Anne Belleudy

Since March 2017, the French flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash, provides warnings for small-to-medium ungauged basins for about 10,000 municipalities to help emergency services better mitigate potential impacts of ongoing and upcoming flash flood events. Set up by the Ministry in charge of Environment, this system complements flood warnings produced by the Vigicrues procedure for French monitored rivers. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA, Vigicrues Flash currently ingests radar-gauge rainfall grids at a 1-km resolution into a conceptual distributed rainfall-runoff model. Real-time peak discharge estimated on any river cell are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles (estimated with the same hydrological model). Automated warnings are issued for rivers exceeding the high flood and very high flood thresholds (defined as years of return periods) and for the associated municipalities that might be impacted. This service shares a web platform for the dissemination and communication of early warnings and hazard map displays with the APIC heavy rainfall warning service from Météo-France.

To better anticipate flash flood events and extend the coverage of the Vigicrues Flash service, the hydrological modeling is being enhanced within the SMASH (Spatially-distributed Modelling and ASsimilation for Hydrology) platform developed by INRAE (formerly Irstea). For the upcoming operational update of Vigicrues Flash, a simplified distributed hydrologic model is continuously run at a 15-minute time step and a 1-km resolution. It includes only 2 parameters per cell, controlling respectively a production reservoir and a transfer reservoir from the Génie Rural (GR) conceptual models. Cross-validation and regionalization of these two parameters have been improved to better account for basins spatial heterogeneities while optimizing flash flood warning performance. Evaluation results for 921 French basins on the 2007-2019 period show improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead time. Current developments aim to integrate a cell-to-cell routing component and improve parameters estimation at the national scale with the variational calibration schemes recently developed on the SMASH platform by Jay-Allemand et al. (2020). Challenges of including high-resolution precipitation nowcasts and accounting for the hydrometeorological uncertainties via data assimilation and ensemble forecasting are also discussed based on ongoing SMASH research.

 

Jay-Allemand, M., Javelle, P., Gejadze, I., Arnaud, P., Malaterre, P.-O., Fine, J.-A., and Organde, D.: On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020.

How to cite: Demargne, J., Fouchier, C., Organde, D., Piotte, O., and Belleudy, A.: Advances and challenges of the French operational flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16063, 2021.

EGU21-11101 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Signature & sensitivity-based comparison of conceptual and process oriented models GR4H, MARINE and SMASH on French Mediterranean flash floods

Pierre-André Garambois, Abubakar Haruna, Hélène Roux, Pierre Javelle, and Maxime Jay-Allemand

Faced with the major challenges of floods and droughts forecasting, especially with the ongoing climate change and potential intensification of the hydrological cycle, advanced modeling tools are needed to perform effective predictions. Nevertheless, hydrological models, regardless of their complexity, encounter difficulties in accurately and reliably predicting quantities of interest such as river discharge or soil saturation dynamics and its spatial variability. Because of physical processes complexity and their limited observability, of the absence of an easily exploitable "first-principle", hydrological modeling remains a difficult task involving emprism and the internal fluxes are generally tinged with large uncertainties. Moreover, multiple model and parameter combinations can lead to comparable performances in discharge simulation at locations where models are evaluated (unicity problem, so called equifinality in hydrology).

This contribution investigates flash flood modeling with models of different complexities: lumped GR4H (Perrin et al. 2003, Mathevet 2005) or distributed  SMASH (Jay-Allemand et al. 2020) conceptual models, process oriented distributed MARINE model (Roux et al. 2011). Considering two flash flood prone catchments (the Gardon at Anduze and the Ardèche at Vogüé, France) a methodology consisting in model global sensitivity analysis, calibration and hydrological signatures analysis is used. Model robustness and accuracy is analyzed in the light of model response surfaces, parameter sensitivity rankings and functionning points found with the different models and global calibration algorithms. Next, event performances and flow signatures are analyzed for contrasted events, but also simulated soil moisture evolutions (or equivalently available “soil” storage) compared to root zone soil moisture from the operational SIM hydro-meteorological model (Habets et al. 2008). This analysis is aimed at understanding how each model simulates the catchment behaviour: what are the differences between the simulated dynamics and how this understanding can be used to improve the relevance of the models. Finally, this study paves the way for extended model hypothesis testing and intercomparison in the light of multi-sourced signatures, for future improvements of vertical and lateral flow components of the SMASH* platform along with its variational calibration and assimilation algorithm.

References:

• Habets F., A. Boone, J.L Champeaux, et al. (2008)) : The SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological model applied over France, Journal of Geophysical Research 113, D06113 (2008) 18

• Jay-Allemand M., P. Javelle, I. Gejadze, et al., On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a mediterranean catchment. HESS, pages 1–24, 2019

• Mathevet, T., 2005. Which lumped rainfall-runoff models for the hourly time-step? Empirical development and comparison of models on a large sample of catchments. PhD Thesis. ENGREF, Cemagref (Irstea), Paris, France, pp. 463.

• Roux H., D. Labat , P.-A. Garambois, M.-M. Maubourguet, J. Chorda, D. Dartus, A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in mediterranean catchments. NHESS, 11(9):2567–2582, 2011.

• Perrin C., C. Michel, V. Andréassian, Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation. Journal of hydrology, 279(1-4):275–289, 2003

*SMASH : Spatially-distributed Modelling and ASsimilation for Hydrology, platform developped by INRAE-Hydris corp., operationally applied  in the french flashflood forecast system VigicruesFlash - see presentation by J. Demargne et al.).

 

How to cite: Garambois, P.-A., Haruna, A., Roux, H., Javelle, P., and Jay-Allemand, M.: Signature & sensitivity-based comparison of conceptual and process oriented models GR4H, MARINE and SMASH on French Mediterranean flash floods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11101, 2021.

EGU21-2984 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Investigating hydrological model versatility to simulate extreme flood events 

Daniela Peredo Ramirez, Maria-Helena Ramos, Vazken Andréassian, and Ludovic Oudin

High-impact flood events in the Mediterranean region are often the result of a combination of local climate and topographic characteristics of the region. Therefore, the way runoff generation processes are represented in hydrological models is a key factor to simulate and forecast floods. In this study, we adapt an existing model in order to increase its versatility to simulate flood events occurring under different conditions: during or after wet periods and after long and dry summer periods. The model adaptation introduces a dependency on rainfall intensity in the production function. The impact of this adaptation is analysed considering model performance over selected flood events and also over a continuous 10-year period of flows. The event-based assessment showed that the adapted model structure performs better than or equal to the original model structure in terms of differences in the timing of peak discharges, regardless of the season of the year when the flood occurs. The most important improvement was observed in the simulation of the magnitude of the flood peaks. A visualisation of model versatility is proposed, which allows detecting the time steps when the new model structure tends to behave more similarly or differently from the original model structure in terms of runoff production. Overall, the results show the potential of the model adaptation proposed to simulate floods originated by different hydrological processes and the value of increasing hydrological model versatility to simulate extreme events.

How to cite: Peredo Ramirez, D., Ramos, M.-H., Andréassian, V., and Oudin, L.: Investigating hydrological model versatility to simulate extreme flood events , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2984, 2021.

EGU21-3498 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Comparison of different infiltration methods for flood numerical analysis: modelling the 19 June 1996 extreme event of Cardoso (Alpi Apuane, Italy)

Michele Amaddii, Enrico D'Addario, Leonardo Disperati, and Pier Lorenzo Fantozzi

As the climate changes are expected to generally increase the hydrogeological hazard, a better knowledge of the catchment-scale response to intense rainfalls is a relevant issue. Hence, in this work, different approaches of infiltration processes estimation are analysed within hydrological modelling of the extreme rainfall event which involved in 1996 the Cardoso area (southern Alpi Apuane, Tuscany, Italy). 
On June 19, 1996, a convective supercell storm produced extreme rainfall rates (478 mm/12 h with maximum intensity of 158 mm/h) within a restricted area of the southern Alpi Apuane. The heavy rainstorm principally affected the Cardoso river watershed, where shallow landslides and debris flows were triggered in the steep slopes of the low-order hydrographic network covered by thick unconsolidated materials. Consequently, severe hyperconcentrated flows destroyed the Cardoso village, with 13 deaths and hundreds million Euros damages.
The FLO-2D flood routing model was used for the numerical modelling of the infiltration processes occurred during the event, by implementing both the SCS-CN method and the Green-Ampt (GA) equation. FLO-2D is a combined hydrologic-hydraulic model, in which there is no need to separate rainfall/runoff and flood routing and spatially varying rainfall/infiltration may be simulated. The main advantage of the GA model arises in the temporal variation of the rainfall intensity, which is not considered in the CN model. 
In north-western Tuscany and especially in the Cardoso basin, the Authors have available a large set of engineering geological data obtained by field surveys performed under the coordination of the Geomatics lab of the University of Siena. Namely, the field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil depth measurements were used to implement both the GA equation (I) and the CN method (II, III). For each lithological unit, the continuous maps of the soil depth and the Ks were obtained by integrating the field data with the landforms extracted by processing a set of morphometric DTM derivatives. Regarding the CN method, the Hydrologic Soil Groups (HSG) were determined following the procedure proposed by the USDA-NRSC (Hydrology National Engineering Handbook, version 2009) (II), and by applying the subjective interpretation criteria (III) which does not consider the values of Ks and soil depth. 
Methods (I) and (II) show similar results and are consistent with the historical literature data and information, considering three relevant transects close to the village, as well as with post-event field evidences. The results obtained by applying the method (III) are strongly conditioned by the subjective assignment of the HSG and they can be different in terms of peak discharge, flood wave arrival time and maximum water level, if compared to (I) and (II). Moreover, the spatial distribution of soil depth and Ks allows a comprehensive representation of the hydrological-morphological framework of the Cardoso catchment.

How to cite: Amaddii, M., D'Addario, E., Disperati, L., and Fantozzi, P. L.: Comparison of different infiltration methods for flood numerical analysis: modelling the 19 June 1996 extreme event of Cardoso (Alpi Apuane, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3498, 2021.

EGU21-7611 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1 | Highlight

Modelling landslide-flood interactions: an example from Colorado

Diego Panici and Georgie Bennett

Landslides and debris flows represent natural phenomenon with high geomorphic impact and of significant cascading hazards to human lives and built environment. Intense rainfall events are key triggers of landslides and, as a result, landslides end up interacting with river channels during floods. Large masses of sediment can overwhelm the sediment transport capacity of a river channel and result in the formation of a dam. Nevertheless, this build-up process is not always evident in the aftermath of the event: when a dam burst occurs, a surge of mixed solid and fluid material is produced resulting in significant erosion in the downstream channel. Eventually, the blockage is removed, leaving the process of dam build-up and bursting undocumented. Due to the abrupt nature of this phenomenon, field observations are difficult to obtain.

In this study, we carried out a preliminary analysis by using a computational model to replicate the formation of a channel blockage downstream of a series of landslides during an event that occurred in the North St Vrain Creek in Colorado, USA, during the Great Colorado Storm in September 2013 (estimated to be a 1 in 1000 years event). In this case, there is limited documented evidence of a blockage, but a dam and its busting were hypothesised by analysing very large erosional patterns in a downstream reach that could not be explained by typical erosive processes (e.g. stream power). We employed the free source code r.avaflow, which is a two-phase model. This code can simulate complex chain phenomena, rapid routing mass flows, and entrainment-deposition processes. Topography of the area was obtained by using high resolution LiDAR DEM before and after the flood event in 2013 and was used as basal topography for simulations, as well as to estimate the amount of sediment released by the landslides. The flood flow employed for the simulation was based on estimated rainfall-runoff and kept constant, since the total simulation time was small compared to the actual flood curve duration. We also tested a limited range of parameters to account for the inherent uncertainties in the variables used.

The model was able to represent the erosion from the landslides and on the river channel, but also displayed the formation of a dam downstream of the landslides across all simulations. Although the topographic change and volume of mobilised sediments were affected by the variation of the model parameters, the formation of the channel blockage was always observed. This modelling will provide the basis for further modelling on landslide-channel interactions and will explain those phenomena that have only been postulated but not directly observed.

How to cite: Panici, D. and Bennett, G.: Modelling landslide-flood interactions: an example from Colorado, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7611, 2021.

EGU21-5694 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

SedCas_Volcano: Simulating decadal patterns of lahar hazard and sediment transfer following volcanic disturbance in the Belham River Valley, Montserrat 

James Christie, Georgina Bennett, Jacob Hirschberg, Jenni Barclay, and Richard Herd

Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most significant natural disturbances to landscapes on Earth. The widespread and rapid influx of pyroclastic sediment, together with subsequent changes to topography and vegetation cover, drives markedly heightened runoff responses to rainfall and increased downstream water and sediment fluxes; principally by way of hazardous lahars. The nature and probability of lahar occurrence under given rainfall conditions evolves as the landscape responds and subsequently recovers following the disturbance. The relationship between varying sediment supply, rainfall patterns, vegetation cover and lahar activity is complex, and impedes forecasting efforts made in the interest of hazard and land use management. Thus, developing an improved understanding of how these systems evolve in response to volcanic eruptions is of high importance.

Here we present SedCas_Volcano[MOU1] , a conceptual sediment cascade model, designed to simulate the first-order trends, such as magnitude-frequency distributions or seasonal patterns, in lahar activity and sediment transport. We use the Belham River Valley, Montserrat, as a case study. This small (~15km2) catchment has been repeatedly disturbed by five phases of volcanic activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano since 1995. The multi-phase nature of this eruption, together with the varying nature and magnitude of disturbances throughout the eruption, has driven a complex disturbance-recovery cycle, which is further compounded by inter-annual climatic variations (e.g. ENSO). Lahars have occurred frequently in response to rainfall in the Belham River Valley, and their occurrence has evolved through the repeated disturbance-recovery cycle. This activity has resulted in significant net valley floor aggradation and widening, consequent burial and destruction of buildings and infrastructure, as well as coastal aggradation of up to ~250m. Within SedCas_Volcano, we account for evolving sediment supply, vegetation cover and rainfall, to simulate the lahar activity and channel change observed in the Belham River Valley since January 2001. Following this, we test the model under different hypothetical eruptive scenarios. [MOU2] Our goal is to assess the efficacy of such models for reproducing patterns of lahar activity and geomorphic change in river systems that are repeatedly disturbed by volcanic activity.

How to cite: Christie, J., Bennett, G., Hirschberg, J., Barclay, J., and Herd, R.: SedCas_Volcano: Simulating decadal patterns of lahar hazard and sediment transfer following volcanic disturbance in the Belham River Valley, Montserrat , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5694, 2021.

EGU21-8085 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Topographic stress influences on bedrock landslides

Gen Li and Seulgi Moon

Bedrock landslides are a major hazard, with influences on erosion, weathering, and organic carbon transfer. Understanding the controls of the magnitudes of bedrock landslides is central for predicting and managing landslide hazards. Previous studies hypothesize that the geometric sizes of bedrock landslides are controlled by bedrock fractures that set the strength of subsurface materials. Recent studies show that topographic stress, resulted from the interplay between tectonics stress and topography, sets the extent of subsurface open-fracture zones, but how topographic stress affects bedrock landslides remains less well understood. Here, we investigate whether topographic stress influences the magnitudes of bedrock landslides in a granitic terrain in the eastern Tibetan mountains where landslides prevail. We constructed two new landslide inventories of earthquake- and rainfall-induced landslides in the study area. We examine the relationships between landslide sizes and the proxies for topographic stress, topography, and landslide triggers (i.e. seismic shaking and rainfall). We demonstrate that topographic stress exerts a dominant control on the sizes of large bedrock landslides. Our study provides new insights into how landslides occur in different topographic and tectonic conditions, as well as how topographic stress influences earth surface processes.

How to cite: Li, G. and Moon, S.: Topographic stress influences on bedrock landslides, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8085, 2021.

EGU21-15286 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1 | Highlight

Multitemporal geomorphological analysis to predict flash flood impacts: its contribution to inform flood risk management

Gloria Furdada, Llanos Valera-Prieto, Sergi Cortés, Marta González, Jordi Pinyol, J. Carles Balasch, Jordi Tuset, Giorgi Khazaradze, and Jaume Calvet

The 2016 implementation of the EU Flood Directive in Spain defines within the flood-prone zones the Preferential Flow Zone (Zona de Flujo Preferente, ZFP). This zone includes a) broadly, the area where the floods flow is concentrated; b) for the 100 years return period flood, the intensive drainage waterway and the zone dangerous to persons. The ZFP is usually defined for the 100 years flood applying hydraulic modelling. However, the calculation of the 100 years flood poses multiple limitations. For instance, different probability distributions produce different results for the same data series, or for rainfall and discharge data, depending on the time interval considered in the calculation, the results are also different. Regarding rainfall, the meteorological radar data are still too new to extrapolate to 100 years. The destruction of meteorological and gauging stations during storms and floods is not rare; hence, a lack of data on major events in the data series can deeply affect the calculations. Furthermore, similar rainfall can produce different discharges due to differences in the antecedent conditions or to land use changes. All the above and the climate change, question the hypothesis of stationarity at the base of the floods return period concept1 and, thus, its calculation reliability.

Since the middle of the 20th century, significant socio-economic and land use changes occurred in the western Mediterranean region, resulting in changes in the morphology of rivers (e.g., reduced channel section, entrenchment). The record of these morphological changes, including the effects of major floods, can provide insights to define the high-energy flow zone or ZFP. This work contributes to determine the flash flood effects and, therefore, to define the ZPF, through multitemporal geomorphological analysis applied to a case study of the upper basin of the Francolí river in Catalonia, Spain. It was affected by several major floods in 1874, 1930, 1994 and 2019, where the first and the last events were the largest and of quite similar, centenial magnitude. Different reaches of the river are studied and compared to validate the analysis: reaches where 1994 and 2019 flood were similar and reaches where these floods were of very different magnitude; reaches where all the basic dataset is available (1946, 1956, 1995 post flood, pre and post 2019 orthophotos; 2003 detailed DTM; stereo photographs, post 2019 flood field data and GNSS-RTK data of river cross sections) and reaches with lack of some data (especially of the 1995 post flood image). Historical information (water levels attained by the past floods and the calculated discharges) are also used to complement and validate the geomorphological analysis results.

With this work we test whether the main geomorphic effects of the 2019 flood could have been predicted using the multitemporal geomorphological analysis. The ZFP can be reasonably determined for major floods in this Mediterranean river. This multitemporal geomorphological analysis appears as a good complementary tool to inform flood risk.

1 Sofia, G., E. I. Nikolopoulos, L. Slater (2020), It’s time to revise estimates of river flood hazards, Eos, 101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EO141499. 16 March 2020.

How to cite: Furdada, G., Valera-Prieto, L., Cortés, S., González, M., Pinyol, J., Balasch, J. C., Tuset, J., Khazaradze, G., and Calvet, J.: Multitemporal geomorphological analysis to predict flash flood impacts: its contribution to inform flood risk management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15286, 2021.

EGU21-11141 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1

Towards pluvial flooding hazard assessment in an urban environment

Omar Seleem, Maik Heistermann, and Axel Bronstert

Urban pluvial floods are considered as a ubiquitous hazard. The increase in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events, combined with high population density makes urban areas vulnerable to pluvial flooding. Pluvial floods could occur anywhere depending on the existence of minimal areas for surface runoff generation and concentration. Detailed hydrologic and hydrodynamic simulations are computationally expensive and resource-intensive. This study applies two computationally inexpensive approaches to identify risk areas for pluvial flooding. One approach uses common GIS operations to detect flood-prone depressions from a high-resolution 1m x 1m Digital Elevation Model (DEM), to identify contributing catchments, and to represent runoff concentration by a fill-spill-merge approach. The second approach employs GIS to identify pluvial flood-prone hotspots in terms of the topographic wetness index (TWI).  Based on the exceedance of a TWI threshold, flood-prone areas are identified using a maximum likelihood method. The threshold is estimated by comparing the TWI to inundation profiles from a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model (TELEMAC 2D), calculated for various rainfall depths within a given spatial window. The two approaches are applied to two flooding hotspots in Berlin, which have been repeatedly subject to pluvial flooding in the last decades and the outputs are compared against the detailed output from TELEMAC 2D. 

How to cite: Seleem, O., Heistermann, M., and Bronstert, A.: Towards pluvial flooding hazard assessment in an urban environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11141, 2021.

EGU21-3948 | vPICO presentations | HS4.1 | Highlight

Spatial Contribution to Flood Risk Analysis (COSPARIN)

Lahache Guillaume, Roumagnac Alix, and Chave Sylvain

After having developed an operational flood risk management service in France for more than 15 years, PREDICT Services was asked to deploy this service internationally.

PREDICT Services has started the transfer of the methods internationally and particularly in Morocco. The first feedbacks of experiences show that spatial data take an essential part in it but that today the quality of these products needs to be improved and that the durability of the access to the data must be secured.

PREDICT Services has partnered with Météo-France and CEREMA to carry out this project.

We have developed with Météo-France a global precipitation estimation data thanks to an artificial intelligence algorithm specific to rainfall estimation computation which considers the discrimination of stratiform and convective clouds, their precipitation estimates, the evaporation correction of precipitation, seasonality, latitude.... These data are also processed in a training file to calibrate the data according to several parameters and in particular existing radar data.

This data is available every 30 minutes at a resolution of 5km around the world.

In addition, with CEREMA, we can generate flood zones thanks to its Exzeco model, applied on the new Airbus digital terrain models (WorldDEM) based on satellite data, thus improving the overall accuracy.

A pilot project has started and will last 2 years to validate the methods and data developed during the project in the Indian Ocean area (Reunion - Mauritius - Mayotte - Madagascar) so that they can be deployed worldwide. Global rainfall estimation as well as the estimation of floodable areas elaborated thanks to satellite data.

These data will be shared via a web platform which will allow users (insurers, meteorological direction, States) to take control of these tools. A real time assistance service 24/24, 365/365, already set up by PREDICT Services for more than 15 years, will support them in the management of risk events.

This data, essential for crisis management and anticipation of natural risks, will allow the different actors to better anticipate and be better prepared during risk events.

How to cite: Guillaume, L., Alix, R., and Sylvain, C.: Spatial Contribution to Flood Risk Analysis (COSPARIN), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3948, 2021.

HS4.2 – Drought and water scarcity: monitoring, modelling and forecasting to improve hydro-meteorological risk management

EGU21-6329 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2 | Highlight

Enhanced capability to monitor drought using citizen weather stations

Irene Garcia-Marti, Marijn de Haij, Hidde Leijnse, Jan Willem Noteboom, Aart Overeem, and Gerard van der Schrier

Recent studies indicate that global warming changes the global hydrological cycle and may trigger drought or expand and deepen existing drought conditions at our planet. During the summer of 2018 the Netherlands experienced extreme drought conditions, matching the previous drought record from 1976. This climatic extreme has been monitored using a cumulative metric based on the difference between (potential) evaporation and precipitation. In an effort to provide exhaustive drought monitoring facilities, the Netherlands Meteorological Service (KNMI) developed a drought monitor based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) using 40 years of daily rainfall (1971-2010) from our official network of rain gauges for calibration. The daily SPI maps help decision makers to assess the status of meteorological drought in the Netherlands, thus enabling preventive measures mitigating its negative impacts on different socio-economic sectors. 

In the past two decades our global society has witnessed the advent of new technological and scientific advances that have reshaped the way we collect weather observations. Increasing numbers of citizens are joining the effort of monitoring the weather by installing citizen weather stations (CWS) in private spaces (e.g., home, schools), thus conforming novel sources of weather data. In 2015, the KNMI joined as a partner the Weather Observations Website (WOW) consortium, a citizen science initiative promoted by the UK Met Office bringing together weather enthusiasts all around the world. WOW-NL CWS have collected 100+ million observations between 2015-2019. However, it is still unclear how to use this remarkable volume of observations, or what is the added value (e.g., economic, operational, research) they provide with respect to the official network. 

In this ongoing work, we combined the newly developed SPI drought monitor with WOW observations from the Netherlands to obtain an ‘SPI-WOW’ indicator. Our goal is threefold: 1) illustrating how to turn WOW-NL data into operational value; 2) assessing the possibility of providing higher resolution drought maps including WOW-NL rainfall data; 3) enable the possibility for underrepresented regions to obtain (relevant) local drought metrics. 

We extracted 12 million precipitation observations for 2019 and, for each day of the year, we computed the daily rainfall accumulations for the previous 30 days (i.e., SPI-1). Note that the precipitation observations are not quality-controlled (QC). The calibrated model is tested with these newly created rainfall accumulations to obtain the SPI-WOW values. Our preliminary results compare the official vs alternative values of SPI at the location of each WOW-NL CWS. For each month we observe a moderate positive correlation, and there are CWS in the network capable of providing measurements close to the official ones. Further work to achieve the above-mentioned goal should include a) the application of a QC to the rainfall data to remove the outliers beforehand; b) thoroughly comparing the values of both networks in space and time across different scenarios; c) identifying the WOW-NL stations providing the best SPI metrics and its characteristics; d) assess the inclusion of radar data for the hi-res maps.

How to cite: Garcia-Marti, I., de Haij, M., Leijnse, H., Noteboom, J. W., Overeem, A., and van der Schrier, G.: Enhanced capability to monitor drought using citizen weather stations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6329, 2021.

EGU21-374 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2 | Highlight

Spatial extent of hydrological drought in the United States: changes and hydro-meteorological drivers

Manuela Irene Brunner, Daniel L. Swain, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood

Droughts can seriously challenge water management if they have large spatial extents. These extents may change in a warming climate along with changes in underlying hydro-meteorological drivers. Therefore, we ask (1) how streamflow drought spatial extent has changed over the period 1981-2018 in the United States, (2) which physical drivers govern drought spatial extent, and (3) whether/how the importance of these drivers has changed over time. We analyze temporal changes in streamflow drought extents and their drivers using drought events extracted for 671 catchments in the conterminous United States using a variable threshold-level approach. Drought spatial extents are determined as the percentage of catchments affected by drought during a certain month. Then, important drivers are identified by determining the spatial percentage overlap of the area under streamflow drought with precipitation droughts, temperature anomalies, snow-water-equivalent deficits, and soil moisture deficits. Finally, the spatial extent and overlap time series are used in a trend analysis to determine changes in drought spatial extent and to identify changes in the importance of different variables as drivers of drought spatial extent. Our analyses show that (1) drought spatial extents have increased, mainly because of increases in the extent of small droughts; (2) drought extents overall substantially overlap with soil moisture deficits and the relationship of drought to precipitation and temperature varies seasonally; (3) the importance of temperature as a driver of drought extent has increased over time. We therefore conclude that continued global warming may further increase the probability of spatially compounding drought events, which requires adaptation of regional drought management strategies.

 

How to cite: Brunner, M. I., Swain, D. L., Gilleland, E., and Wood, A. W.: Spatial extent of hydrological drought in the United States: changes and hydro-meteorological drivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-374, 2021.

EGU21-1786 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Evaluating seasonal drought prediction in snow-fed systems past, present, and future: towards identifying resilient prediction techniques

Ben Livneh, Parthkumar Modi, Joseph Kasprzyk, Brooke Ely, and Benet Duncan

Seasonal water supply predictions offer critical information to aid in planning and mitigation of drought impacts. In many northern and montane systems, spring snow information has been shown to be the most important predictor of seasonal drought, since in these systems snow water storage can exceed that of man-made reservoirs. However, a warmer future portends for less precipitation falling in the form of snow, which challenges current prediction methods. This presentation focuses on evaluating physical and statistical techniques for seasonal water supply prediction in snow-fed systems under both historical and future climate conditions with the goal of identifying regions and methods where predictions are likely to remain skillful under future warming. Initial results using downscaled hydrologic projections over the western U.S. indicate that snow information contributes less predictive skill to drought forecasts over roughly two thirds of snow dominated regions by the middle of this century. Significantly greater resilience to warming is seen higher elevation zones (p<0.01) and for prediction methods that include non-snow predictors such as soil moisture. To understand the impact of non-stationary snow conditions on future drought predictions, we conduct a series of idealized experiments to evaluate the relative importance of secular trends versus changing variability of both snow and seasonal climate conditions. This presentation is part of a larger research effort seeking to identify alternatives to snow-based streamflow predictions to advance future drought predictability.

How to cite: Livneh, B., Modi, P., Kasprzyk, J., Ely, B., and Duncan, B.: Evaluating seasonal drought prediction in snow-fed systems past, present, and future: towards identifying resilient prediction techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1786, 2021.

EGU21-2330 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

David J. Peres, Alfonso Senatore, Paola Nanni, Antonino Cancelliere, Giuseppe Mendicino, and Brunella Bonaccorso

Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.

How to cite: Peres, D. J., Senatore, A., Nanni, P., Cancelliere, A., Mendicino, G., and Bonaccorso, B.: A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2330, 2021.

EGU21-3389 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Monitoring multiscale drought using remote sensing in a Mediterranean arid region.

Hadri Abdessamad, Saidi Mohamed El Mehdi, and Boudhar Abdelghani

During the last few decades, the frequency of drought has significantly increased in Morocco especially for arid and semi-arid regions, leading to a rising of several environmental and economic issues. In this work, we analyse the spatial and temporal relationship between vegetation activity and drought severity at different moments of the year, across an arid area in the western Haouz plain in Morocco. Our approach is based on the use of a set of more than thirty satellite Landsat images data acquired for the period from 2008 to 2017, combined with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at different time scales and Standardized water-level Index (SWI). The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slopes methods were used to estimate SPI trends and the Pearson correlation between NDVI and SPI were calculated to assess the sensitivity of vegetation types to drought. Results demonstrated that SPI experienced an overall upward trend in the Chichaoua-Mejjate region, except for 3-months time scale SPI in summer. The vegetation activity is largely controlled by the drought with clear differences between seasons and timesclaes at which drought is assessed. Positives correlations between the NDVI and SPI are dominant across the entire study area except in June when almost half of correlations is negative. More than 80% of the study domain exhibit a correlation exceeding 0.4 for SPI3 and SPI6 in March. Importantly, this study stresses that the irrigation status of land can introduce some uncertainties on the remote sensing drought monitoring. A weak correlation between the SPI and the SWI was observed at different time-scale. The fluctuations of the piezometric levels are strongly affected by the anthropogenic overexploitation of aquifers and proliferation of irrigated plots.

How to cite: Abdessamad, H., Mohamed El Mehdi, S., and Abdelghani, B.: Monitoring multiscale drought using remote sensing in a Mediterranean arid region., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3389, 2021.

EGU21-4962 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Can Effective Drought Index (EDI) successfully characterise meteorological drought and seasonal agricultural losses?

Md Anarul Haque Mondol, Xuan Zhu, David Dunkerley, and Benjamin J. Henley

The nature and characteristics of drought are not like a flood, cyclone or storm surge since droughts cannot easily be tracked and are difficult to quantify as a distinct event. In this study, we examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979-2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. The study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent in all seasons except pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon in both Teesta floodplain and Barind tract. In decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically started between March to May (± 15 days) and ended with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the last 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensities of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, EDI and rice production have a non-linear relationship and are not significantly correlated. Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on yield rather than just climatological drought (e.g. irrigation, lack of technology and management etc.).

How to cite: Mondol, M. A. H., Zhu, X., Dunkerley, D., and Henley, B. J.: Can Effective Drought Index (EDI) successfully characterise meteorological drought and seasonal agricultural losses?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4962, 2021.

EGU21-5757 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Effects of climate change and human interactions on water balance dynamics in the River Vistula basin

Renata Romanowicz, Emilia Karamuz, Jaroslaw Napiorkowski, and Tesfaye Senbeta

Water balance modelling is often applied in studies of climate and human impacts on water resources. Annual water balance is usually derived based on precipitation, discharge and temperature observations under an assumption of negligible changes in annual water storage in a catchment. However, that assumption might be violated during very dry or very wet years. In this study we apply groundwater level measurements to improve water balance modelling in nine sub-catchments of the River Vistula basin starting from the river sources downstream. Annual and inter-annual water balance is studied using a Budyko framework to assess actual evapotranspiration and total water supply. We apply the concept of effective precipitation to account for possible losses due to water interception by vegetation. Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation GLUE is used to account for parameter and structural model uncertainty, together with the application of eight Budyko-type equations. Seasonal water balance models show large errors for winter seasons while summer and annual water balance models follow the Budyko framework. The dryness index is much smaller in winter than in summer for all sub-catchments. The spatial variability of water balance modelling errors indicate an increasing uncertainty of model predictions with an increase in catchment size. The results show that the added information on storage changes in the catchments provided by groundwater level observations largely improves model accuracy. The results also indicate the need to model groundwater level variability depending on external factors such as precipitation and evapotranspiration and human interventions. The modelling tools developed will be used to assess future water balance in the River Vistula basin under different water management scenarios and climate variability.

How to cite: Romanowicz, R., Karamuz, E., Napiorkowski, J., and Senbeta, T.: Effects of climate change and human interactions on water balance dynamics in the River Vistula basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5757, 2021.

EGU21-7445 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Assessing the options for the operational mapping of the soil moisture content in the European Alps

Felix Greifeneder, Klaus Haslinger, Georg Seyerl, Claudia Notarnicola, Massimiliano Zappa, and Marc Zebisch

Soil Moisture (SM) is one of the key observable variables of the hydrological cycle and therefore of high importance for many disciplines, from meteorology to agriculture. This contribution presents a comparison of different products for the mapping of SM. The aim was to identify the best available solution for the operational monitoring of SM as a drought indicator for the entire area of the European Alps, to be applied in the context of the Interreg Alpine Space project, the Alpine Drought Observatory.

The following datasets were considered: Soil Water Index (SWI) of the Copernicus Global Land Service [1]; ERA5 [2]; ERA5-Land [3]; UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX land-surface component [4]. All four datasets offer a different set of advantages and disadvantages related to their spatial resolution, update frequency and latency. As a reference, modelled SM time-series for 307 catchments in Switzerland were used [5]. Switzerland is well suited as a test case for the Alps, due to its different landscapes, from lowlands to high mountain.

The intercomparison was based on a correlation analysis of daily absolute SM values and the daily anomalies. Furthermore, the probability to detect certain events, such as persistent dry conditions, was evaluated for each of the SM datasets. First results showed that the temporal dynamics (both in terms of absolute values as well as anomalies) of the re-analysis datasets show a high correlation to the reference. A clear gradient, from the lowlands in the north to the high mountains in the south, with decreasing correlation is evident. The SWI data showed weak correlations to the temporal dynamics of the reference in general. Especially, during spring and the first part of the summer SM is significantly underestimated. This might be related to the influence of snowmelt, which is not taken into account in the two-layer water balance model used to model SM for deeper soil layers. Low coverage in the high mountain areas hampered a thorough comparison with the reference in these areas.

The results presented here are the foundation for selecting a suitable source for the operational mapping of SM for the Alpine Drought Observatory. The next steps will be to test the potential of MESCAN-SURFEX and ERA5-Land for the downscaling of ERA5 to take advantage of the low latency of ERA5 and the improved spatial detail of the other two datasets.  

Literature:

[1]  B. Bauer-marschallinger et al., “Sentinel-1 : Harnessing Assets and Overcoming Obstacles,” IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 520–539, 2019, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2018.2858004.

[2]  H. Hersbach et al., “ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present.” Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), 2018.

[3]  Copernicus Climate Change Service, “ERA5-Land hourly data from 2001 to present.” ECMWF, 2019, doi: 10.24381/CDS.E2161BAC.

[4]  E. Bazile, et al., “MESCAN-SURFEX Surface Analysis. Deliverable D2.8 of the UERRA Project,” 2017. Accessed: Jan. 11, 2020. [Online]. Available: http://www.uerra.eu/publications/deliverable-reports.html.

[5]  Brunner, et al.: Extremeness of recent drought events in    Switzerland: dependence on variable and return period choice, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019.

How to cite: Greifeneder, F., Haslinger, K., Seyerl, G., Notarnicola, C., Zappa, M., and Zebisch, M.: Assessing the options for the operational mapping of the soil moisture content in the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7445, 2021.

EGU21-9483 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Integrative soil moisture monitoring in Switzerland for a better preparedness for projected drying trends

Dominik Michel, Martin Hirschi, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Climate projections indicate an increasing risk of dry and hot episodes in Central Europe, including in Switzerland. However, models display a large spread in projections of changes in summer drying, highlighting the importance of related observations to evaluate climate models and constrain projections. Land hydrological variables play an essential role for these projections. This is particularly the case for soil moisture and land evaporation, which are directly affecting the development of droughts and heatwaves in both present and future.

The recent 2020 spring as well as 2015 and 2018 summer droughts in Switzerland have highlighted the importance of monitoring and assessing changes of soil moisture and land evaporation, which are strongly related to drought impacts on agriculture, forestry, and ecosystems. The country was affected by major drought and heatwave conditions in 2015 and 2018. While the meteorological conditions started to recover at the end of the summer, the soil moisture conditions (and runoff) continued to be anomalously low for most of the fall. This illustrates the decoupling between meteorological drought and soil moisture drought conditions related to the intrinsic memory of the soil.

The only Switzerland-wide soil moisture monitoring programme currently in place is the SwissSMEX (Swiss Soil Moisture Experiment) measurement network. It was initiated in 2008 and comprises 19 soil moisture measurement profiles at 17 different sites (grassland, forest and arable land). Since 2017, seven grassland SwissSMEX sites were complemented with land evaporation measurements from mini-lysimeters.

First, a quality assessment and inter-comparison of the in-situ soil moisture and land evaporation observations at 12 grassland sites revealed substantial discrepancies between different sensor types in terms of absolute values and data availability. A standard procedure for processing and interpreting the SwissSMEX data is thus being established. Second, analyses have been carried out comparing the SwissSMEX measurements with gridded remote-sensing and reanalysis products that provide near real time soil moisture data. In particular, the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) surface soil moisture product (ESA-CCI soil moisture) as well as the new ECMWF reanalysis ERA5 are considered. The seasonal evolution of the soil moisture anomalies (with respect to the long-term mean) show for 2020 two pronounced phases of dryness. These are consistently represented in SwissSMEX in-situ observations and ERA5. Also the other recent drought events of 2015 and 2018 show a similar temporal evolution in both datasets. The response of ESA-CCI surface soil moisture is less pronounced, more variable and also dependent on the measurement methodology, i.e., active or passive microwave remote sensing.

These first analyses provide useful insights in order to provide near-real time monitoring, enhance process understanding at the national scale and a better preparedness for future droughts.

How to cite: Michel, D., Hirschi, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Integrative soil moisture monitoring in Switzerland for a better preparedness for projected drying trends, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9483, 2021.

EGU21-10228 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

A novel agricultural drought monitoring framework using remote sensing products

Trupti Satapathy, Meenu Ramadas, and Jörg Dietrich

Among natural hazards, droughts are known to be very complex and disastrous owing to their creeping nature and widespread impacts. Specifically, the occurrence of agricultural droughts poses a threat to the productivity and socio-economic development of countries such as India. In this study, we propose a novel framework for agricultural drought monitoring integrating the different indicators of vegetation health, crop water stress and soil moisture, that are derived from remote sensing satellite data. The drought monitoring is performed over Odisha, India, for the period 2000-2019. Soil moisture and land surface temperature datasets from GLDAS Noah Land Surface Model and surface reflectance data from MODIS (MOD09GA) are used in this study. We compared the utility of popular indices: (i) soil moisture condition index, soil moisture deficit index and soil wetness deficit index to represent the soil moisture level; (ii) temperature condition index, vegetation condition index and normalised difference water index to indicate vegetation health; (iii) short wave infrared water stress to represent crop water stress condition. Correlation analyses between these indices and the seasonal crop yields are performed, and suitable indicators are chosen. The popular entropy weight method is then used to integrate the indices and develop the proposed composite drought index. The index is then used for monitoring the agricultural drought condition over the study area in drought periods. The proposed framework for week- to month-scale monitoring have potential applications in identification of agricultural drought hotspots, analysis of trends in drought severity, and drought early warning for agricultural water management.

How to cite: Satapathy, T., Ramadas, M., and Dietrich, J.: A novel agricultural drought monitoring framework using remote sensing products, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10228, 2021.

Global warming and anthropogenic activities have significantly altered the hydrological cycle and amplified the extreme events (floods and droughts) in many regions of the world, with associated environmental, economic, and social losses. For effective hydro extremes hazards management, it is significant to understand how climate change influences the occurrence, duration, and severity of the regional dryness/wetness conditions (droughts/floods). The present study was carried out over Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in Pakistan which lies in the western Himalaya, a most effected mountainous range by Climate Change. Firstly, a suitable gridded precipitation dataset was selected/chosen among various datasets (APHRODITE, CHIRPS, ERA5, PGMFD, MSWEP) through spatio-temporal comparison against in situ data at monthly, seasonal, and annual scale. Secondly, selected gridded data was adjusted for biases using linear (Linear scaling-LS, Local intensity scaling-LOCI) and nonlinear (Power transformation-PT and Distribution mapping-DM) statistical methods. Finally, standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple time scale was used to analyses dryness/wetness conditions in the Upper Jhelum Basin over a 35-year period (1981–2015). Results show the higher capability of ERA5 data to represent the UJB precipitation patterns with correlation coefficient (r=0.79) and normalized standard deviation (nSD=1.1), despite of overestimation especially during peak months. Regarding precipitation bias adjustment, all methods were able to correct the mean values while LOCI and DM take advantage over other two methods to correct wet-day probability and precipitation intensity. The SPI analysis at different time scales showed that wet periods occurred more in the first half of the study period, but at later years, drying periods ranging from moderate to severe continue to be seen with increasing frequency. A strong change in dry/wet conditions was observed around years 1997/1998. This change may be the result of the strongest El Nino event (1997-98) occurred in the history. However, further studies are still needed to check whether there is only a large multi-decadal variation or dry conditions will prevail in future. Overall, these findings would assist to better understand the changing pattern of extreme events with climate variability and help water resources managers to develop basin wide appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to combat climate change and its consequences. 

How to cite: Ansari, R. and Grossi, G.: Evolution of Dryness/Wetness conditions and their characteristics (duration and severity) across Upper Jhelum Basin, Pakistan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12550, 2021.

EGU21-12906 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

An assessment of the Dead Sea level change using remotely sensed data

Musab Mbideen and Balázs Székely

Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) instruments have spread rapidly in recent years to manage natural resources and monitor environmental changes. Remote sensing has a vast range of applications; one of them is lakes monitoring. The Dead Sea (DS) is subjected to very strong evaporation processes, leading to a remarkable shrinkage of its water level. The DS is being dried out due to a negative balance in its hydrological cycle during the last five decades. This research aims to study the spatial changes in the DS throughout the previous 48 years. Change detection technique has been performed to detect this change over the research period (1972-2020). 73 Landsat imageries have been used from four digital sensors; Landsat 1-5 MSS C1 Level-1, Landsat 4-5 TM C1 Level-1, Land sat 7 ETM+ C1  Level-1, and Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS C1 Level. After following certain selection criteria , the number of studied images decreased. Furthermore, the Digital Surface Model of the Space Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and a bathymetric map of the Dead Sea were used. The collected satellite imageries were pre-processed and normalized using ENVI 5.3 software by converting the Digital Number (DN) to spectral radiance, the spectral radiance was converted to apparent reflectance, atmospheric effects were removed, and finally, the black gaps were removed. It was important to distinguish between the DS lake and the surrounding area in order to have accurate results, this was done by performing classification techniques. The digital terrain model of the DS was used in ArcGIS (3D) to reconstruct the elevation of the shore lines. This model generated equations to detect the water level, surface area, and water volume of the DS. The results were compared to the bathymetric data as well. The research shows that the DS water level declined 65 m (1.35 m/a) in the studied period. The surface area and the water volume declined by 363.56 km2 (7.57 km2/a) and 53.56 km3 (1.11 km3/a), respectively. The research also concluded that due to the bathymetry of the DS, the direction of this shrinkage is from the south to the north. We hypothesize that anthropogenic effects have contributed in the shrinkage of the DS more than the climate. The use of the DS water by both Israel and Jordan for industrial purposes is the main factor impacting the DS, another factor is the diversion of the Jordan and Yarmouk rivers. Our results also allow to give a prediction for the near future of the DS: the water level is expected to reach –445 m in 2050, while the surface area and the water volume is expected to be 455 km2 and 142 km3, respectively. 

How to cite: Mbideen, M. and Székely, B.: An assessment of the Dead Sea level change using remotely sensed data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12906, 2021.

EGU21-13186 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Hydrological modelling and anthropogenic water use

Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Ali Rudd, Vicky Bell, Matt Brown, Helen Davies, Alison Kay, and Catherine Sefton

Despite Britain’s often-rainy maritime climate, anthropogenic water demands have a significant impact on river flows, particularly during dry summers. In future years, projected population growth and climate change are likely to increase the demand for water and lead to greater pressures on available freshwater resources.

Across England, abstraction (from groundwater, surface water or tidal sources) and discharge data along with ‘Hands off Flow’ conditions are available for thousands of individual locations; each with a licence for use, an amount, an indication of when abstraction can take place, and the actual amount of water abstracted (generally less than the licence amount). Here we demonstrate how these data can be used in combination to incorporate anthropogenic artificial influences into a grid-based hydrological model. Model simulations of both high and low river flows are generally improved when abstractions and discharges are included, though for some catchments model performance decreases. The new approach provides a methodological baseline for further work investigating the impact of anthropogenic water use and projected climate change on future river flows.

How to cite: Rameshwaran, P., Rudd, A., Bell, V., Brown, M., Davies, H., Kay, A., and Sefton, C.: Hydrological modelling and anthropogenic water use, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13186, 2021.

EGU21-13800 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Austral Summer Droughts and their Driving Mechanisms in Observations and Present-day Climate Simulations across Malawi

Emmanuel Likoya, Cathryn Birch, Sarah Chapman, and Andrew Dougill

The societal relevance of droughts in Africa underscores the need for improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that drive them. This study examined drought characteristics across Malawi, and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, in observations, reanalysis and global climate models. Droughts were identified using the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the period 1965 to 2018. Atmospheric circulation patterns during droughts were examined and the main moisture fluxes into Malawi were identified. Despite differences in the frequency, and events being asynchronous at times, droughts exhibited characteristics that were statistically similar between northern and southern Malawi. Droughts in both regions were associated with anomalous circulation that typically worked to diminish moisture advection and thus convection. Differences in the structure of the anomalies were indicative of differences in mechanisms associated with droughts in the north and south of Malawi. Three main moisture flux pathways were identified, and categorized as northeasterly, southeasterly, and northwesterly, each with a unique correlation structure with precipitation and global SSTs. Positive and negative biases of varying magnitudes were noted for drought and rainfall characteristics across the range of CMIP5 models. Such biases can be attributed to biases in moisture fluxes whose variability was found to be a key driver of summer precipitation variability across Malawi. Despite biases in moisture fluxes and their influence on precipitation biases, the majority of models exhibited moisture flux-precipitation correlations consistent with observations and reanalysis. Results from the study highlight the extent to which climate models are reliable in simulating droughts and therefore of value in developing narratives of climate variability essential for long-term development planning.

How to cite: Likoya, E., Birch, C., Chapman, S., and Dougill, A.: Austral Summer Droughts and their Driving Mechanisms in Observations and Present-day Climate Simulations across Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13800, 2021.

EGU21-15208 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Spatial and temporal assessment of Snow drought characteristic for 1981 to 2020 on Urmia lake catchment scale

Maral Habibi, Wolfgang Schöner, and Iman Babaeian

Snow plays a significant role in surface runoff, groundwater resources, and as an important temporary reservoir for winter precipitation. On the other hand, extreme floods can arise when high melt rates in catchments zone combine with torrential rain at the same time, therefore snowmelt quantities are important for the management of lakes.

This study aims at investigating snow drought characteristics in the catchment area of Lake Urmia, which has recently been faced with the issue of drought and declining water levels. To provide an overview of drought intensity for the last 40 years 1981-2020, the Standardized Snow Melt and Rain Index (SMRI), which accounts for rain and snowmelt deficits, was applied and spatial variations of snow drought were assessed. The index was used in drought analysis based on the ERA5 dataset for the whole study area under three-time scales including the 3-, 6- and 12-month. After determining the dry and wet periods, historical characteristics of droughts were identified, and spatial distribution maps of droughts were plotted.

Results show that during the last years, snow drought events were more frequent, severe, and affected a larger area which shows a spatial spread of drought events. According to the snow index results, most extreme events have happened in the Zarine Rud and Simine Rud sub-catchments which play a key role in increasing the groundwater resources of the Basin. With proper management, these resources can be properly used for lake revitalization.

 

Keywords: Snow droughts, SMRI, Drought characteristics, Urmia lake, Climate extreme

 

How to cite: Habibi, M., Schöner, W., and Babaeian, I.: Spatial and temporal assessment of Snow drought characteristic for 1981 to 2020 on Urmia lake catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15208, 2021.

EGU21-15470 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Groundwater storage in the Horn of Africa drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes

Markus Adloff, Michael Bliss Singer, David McLeod, Katerina Michaelides, Nooshin Mehrnegar, Eleanor Hansford, Chris Funk, and Dann Mitchell

Rural communities in the Horn of Africa Drylands (HAD) rely on the availability of soil moisture for crop growth and groundwater for drinking water supply for people and livestock. Recent negative trends in March-May rainfall (‘long rains’) have decreased soil moisture with negative consequences for the livelihoods in HAD communities, who have become increasingly vulnerable to multi-season droughts affecting crops and livestock. These increasingly common failed ‘long rains’, propagate into agricultural drought, causing famines, and lead to major humanitarian intervention across HAD. However, the links between seasonal rainfall (‘long rains’ and ‘short rains’ in October-December) and regional groundwater storage in HAD have not been explored. We examined trends in seasonal rainfall from various gridded datasets alongside an analysis of total water storage (TWS) from GRACE satellite data. Multiple rainfall datasets corroborate declining ‘long rains’ and increasing ‘short rains’, and a 3-hr (MSWEP) dataset reveals the disproportionate contribution of extreme rainfall to totals within both seasons. We also found that TWS generally increased across the HAD region between 2002 and 2017, and that the GRACE TWS signal is primarily composed of groundwater storage changes for this region, rather than trends in soil moisture. We then found that groundwater storage variability correlates strongly with seasonal rainfall on interannual and decadal scales, and it is particularly correlated with extreme rainfall in both rainy seasons. We highlight the importance of increasingly large Indian Ocean Dipole events in dominating extreme rainfall and correspondingly high TWS and groundwater recharge within the October-December rainy season. While groundwater recharge in HAD by high-intensity rainfall is generally high for the March-May rainy season, it is increasing for the ‘short rains’ season. These findings raise the possibility that increasing groundwater availability across HAD could be exploited to offset the ‘long rains’ decline, potentially mitigating their climate change impacts on soil moisture, crops, and drinking water supplies.

How to cite: Adloff, M., Singer, M. B., McLeod, D., Michaelides, K., Mehrnegar, N., Hansford, E., Funk, C., and Mitchell, D.: Groundwater storage in the Horn of Africa drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15470, 2021.

EGU21-9426 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2 | Highlight

The Effect of Droughts on Ecosystem Water-Use-Efficiency in Europe

Christian Poppe Teran, Bibi Naz, Roland Baatz, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, Nikolaos Nikolaidis, and Harry Vereecken

Hydrological extremes in Europe, such as droughts, are expected to increase in frequency and severity with advancement of climate change. The consequences for ecosystem functioning and processes, including biomass production and evapotranspiration, have not yet been thoroughly mapped. 

Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) describes the amount of carbon assimilated as biomass per unit of water. WUE was examined for various case studies and global assessments, yet disagreements in the methodologic approach and uncertainties hinder generic understanding of WUE variability. As a link between the carbon cycle, water cycle and vegetation states, disclosure of WUE courses across European ecosystems enables important estimates of past, present and future ecosystem dynamics. 

Here we generated a long-term and high resolution observational and reanalysis data-set of WUE over Europe by interpolation of high level observation products (GLASS, CRU TS v4) and reanalysis data sets (ERA5-Land, COSMO-REA6, ESSMRA) to a 3 x 3km grid. This European Drought and Water Use Efficiency data-set (EDWUE) contains variables for calculating WUE using three different approaches, as well as indicators of meteorological and agricultural droughts.  

Drought effects on WUE will be analyzed to investigate the sensitivity of ecosystem processes to extreme weather conditions at regional and local scale by comparison of WUE and drought indices time-series. Spatiotemporal analyses of the EDWUE data-set across European ecosystems will discover differences in patterns and potential trends of WUE between regions and decode the dependencies on ecosystem composition, geographical characteristics, and climate and occurring weather extremes. Intercomparisons between the different WUE calculations will allow to draw conclusions on the roots of particular WUE dynamics.

How to cite: Poppe Teran, C., Naz, B., Baatz, R., Hendricks-Franssen, H.-J., Nikolaidis, N., and Vereecken, H.: The Effect of Droughts on Ecosystem Water-Use-Efficiency in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9426, 2021.

EGU21-218 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Comparison of wavelet and machine learning methods for regional drought prediction

Gilbert Hinge and Ashutosh Sharma

Droughts are considered as one of the most catastrophic natural disasters that affect humans and their surroundings at a larger spatial scale compared to other disasters. Rajasthan, one of India's semiarid states, is drought inclined and has experienced many drought events in the past. In this study, we evaluated different preprocessing and Machine Learning (ML) approaches for drought predictions in Rajasthan for a lead-time of up to 6 months. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as the drought quantifying measure to identify the drought events. SPI was calculated for 3, 6, and 12-month timescales over the last 115-year using monthly rainfall data at 119 grid stations.  ML techniques, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Linear Regression (LR), were used to evaluate their accuracy in drought forecasting over different lead times. Furthermore, two data processing methods, namely the Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), have also been used to enhance the aforementioned ML models' predictability. At the outset, the preprocessed SPI data from both the methods were used as inputs for LR, SVR, and ANN to form a hybrid model. The hybrid models' drought predictability for a different lead-time was evaluated and compared with the standalone ML models. The forecasting performance of all the models for all 119 grid points was assessed with three statistical indices: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). RMSE was used to select the optimal model parameters, such as the number of hidden neurons and the number of inputs in ANN, and the level of decomposition and mother wavelet in wavelet analysis.  Based on these measures, the coupled model showed better forecasting performance than the standalone ML models. The coupled WPT-ANN model shows superior predictability for most of the grid points than other coupled models and standalone models.  All models' performance improved as the timescale increased from 3 to 12 months for all the lead times. However, the model performance decreased as the lead time increased.  These findings indicate the necessity of processing the data before the application of any machine learning technique. The hybrid model's prediction performance also shows that it can be used for drought early warning systems in the state.

How to cite: Hinge, G. and Sharma, A.: Comparison of wavelet and machine learning methods for regional drought prediction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-218, 2021.

EGU21-1305 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Applying machine learning for drought prediction using a large ensemble of climate simulations

Elizaveta Felsche and Ralf Ludwig

There is strong scientific and social interest to understand the factors leading to extreme events in order to improve the management of risks associated with hazards like droughts. Recent events like the summer 2018 drought in Germany already had severe und unexpected impacts, e.g. forest fires and crop failures; in order to increase preparedness robust prediction tools are  urgently required. In this study, machine learning methods are applied to predict the occurrence of a drought with lead times of one to three months. The approach takes into account a list of thirty atmospheric and soil variables as predictor input parameters from a single regional climate model initial condition large ensemble (CRCM5-LE). The data was produced the context of the ClimEx project by Ouranos with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by 50 members of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for the Bavarian and Quebec domains.

Drought occurrence was defined using the Standardized Precipitation Index. The training and test datasets were chosen from the current climatology (1955-2005) for the Munich and Lisbon subdomain within the CRCM5-LE. The best performing machine learning algorithms managed to obtain a correct classification of drought or no drought for a lead time of one month for around 60 % of the events of each class for the both domains. Explainable AI methods like feature importance and shapley values were applied to gain a better understanding of the trained algorithms. Physical variables like the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and air pressure one month before the event proved to be of high importance for the prediction. The study showed that better accuracies can be obtained for the Lisbon domain, due to the stronger influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index on Portugal’s climate.

How to cite: Felsche, E. and Ludwig, R.: Applying machine learning for drought prediction using a large ensemble of climate simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1305, 2021.

Droughts in the Iberian Peninsula are a natural hazard of great relevance due to their recurrence, severity and impact on multiple environmental and socioeconomic aspects. The Ebro Basin, located in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula, is particularly vulnerable to drought with consequences on agriculture, urban water supply and hydropower. This study, performed within the Project HUMID (CGL2017-85687-R), aims at evaluating the influence of the climatic, land cover and soil characteristics on the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture anomalies which define the spatio-temporal drought patterns in the basin.

The onset, propagation and mitigation of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula is driven by anomalies of rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, which are related by feedback processes. To test the relative importance of such anomalies, we evaluate the contribution of climatic, land-cover and geologic heterogeneity on the definition of the spatio-temporal patterns of drought. We use the Köppen-Geiger climatic classification to assess how the contrasting climatic types within the basin determine differences on drought behavior. Land-cover types that govern the partition between evaporation and transpiration are also of great interest to discern the influence of vegetation and crop types on the anomalies of evapotranspiration across the distinct regions of the basin (e.g. forested mountains vs. crop-dominated areas). The third physical characteristic whose effect on drought we investigate is the impact of soil properties on soil moisture anomalies.

The maps and time series used for the spatio-temporal analysis are based on drought indices calculated with high-resolution datasets from remote sensing (MOD16A2ET and SMOS1km) and the land-surface model SURFEX-ISBA. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the EvapoTranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) are the three indices chosen to characterize the anomalies of the corresponding rainfall (atmospheric), evapotranspiration (atmosphere-land interface) and soil moisture (land) anomalies (components of the water balance). The comparison of the correlations of the indices (with different time lags) between contrasting regions offers insights about the impact of climate, land-cover and soil properties in the dominance, the timing of the response and memory aspects of the interactions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing and land-surface model data allows adopting time and spatial scales suitable to investigate the influence of these physical factors with detail beyond comparison with ground-based datasets.

The spatial and temporal analysis prove useful to investigate the physical factors of influence on the anomalies between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This approach facilitates the physical interpretation of the anomalies of drought indices aiming to improve the characterization of drought in heterogeneous semi-arid areas like the Ebro River Basin.

How to cite: Gaona, J., Quintana-Seguí, P., and Escorihuela, M. J.: Physical factors of influence in the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture driving the spatio-temporal evolution of drought patterns in the Ebro Basin (NE Spain)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2377, 2021.

EGU21-3255 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2 | Highlight

Forecasting agropastoral water deficits in West Africa to support food insecurity early warning

Shraddhanand Shukla, Kathryn Grace, Abdou Ali, Daniel McEvoy, William Turnet, Adoum Alkhalil, Seydou Tinni, Issaka Lona, Ibrah Sanda, Emil A Cherrington, Rebekke Muench, and Greg Husak

West Africa (WA) is prone to food insecurity due to climate-, economic-, conflict-related shocks, as well as high population growth and lack of proper adaptation strategies. As per the USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which uses Integrated Phase Classification to classify acute food insecurity (AFI), between 2011 and early 2020, several parts of WA reported the “Stressed” phase of AFI >30% of the time. Food security and livelihood in the region relies substantially on rainfed farming and small-scale water holes. Droughts lead to water deficits resulting in adverse impacts on food production, human and livestock health and agricultural labor opportunities, leading to or worsening of food insecurity. Thus far, the focus of climate, drought outlooks and their impacts, to support food insecurity early warning in this region has mainly been on the seasonal scale (i.e., 3-6 months in future) forecasts whereas use of subseasonal scale (2-4 weeks in future) forecasts has been negligible. Recent advances in routine production (i.e. weekly) and open access to subseasonal forecasts provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve the existing climate services in the region by focusing on the impacts of subseasonal climate characteristics on food insecurity in the region. Here we report on an ongoing project with the AGRiculture HYdrology and METeorology Regional Centre (SERVIR’s WA Hub) that aims to develop a subseasonal water deficit forecasting system to support food insecurity early warning in the region. The presentation will describe  (i) the results of an ongoing analysis examining the influence of subseasonal climate characteristics (e.g. monthly climate variability, length of dry or wet spell) on food insecurity, as measures by different food insecurity indicators (such as vegetation index, food insecurity reports and household level health and malnutrition reports) and (ii) the major accomplishments towards implementation of the water deficit forecasting system, including development and evaluation of prototype products, (iii) capacity building and stakeholder engagement activities with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region. 

How to cite: Shukla, S., Grace, K., Ali, A., McEvoy, D., Turnet, W., Alkhalil, A., Tinni, S., Lona, I., Sanda, I., Cherrington, E. A., Muench, R., and Husak, G.: Forecasting agropastoral water deficits in West Africa to support food insecurity early warning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3255, 2021.

Drought is one of the most critical hydrometeorological phenomena in terms of impacts to society because it affects soil water content, and consequently, crop production and human diets, in some cases under critical conditions, drought produces starving and people migration. Although Colombia is a tropical country, there are areas of the territory that have periods of drought that cause important economic damages such as fires, death loss in cattle, reduction of the capacity to supply water to persons, impacts to agriculture and fish farming.

Due to recent advances in terms of spatial and temporal resolutions of remote sensing and Artificial Intelligence techniques, it is possible to develop Automatic Learning Models supported on historic information. In this research was built a classifier  Random Forest (RF) and Bagged Decision Tree Classifier (DTC) model to predict, spatial and temporal drought occurrence in Colombia, using remote sensing data as land surface temperature, precipitation, soil water contentl, and evapotranspiration, and macro climatic variables information as ONI, MEI and SOI.  It was used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with 3-month time scale, that allows identifying agricultural drought events. The results showed that Random Forest provides the best outcomes. In terms of recall and precision, RF produced 0.84 and 0.59 and DTC brought a 0.8 and 0.33, respectively, to predict drought. The above, evidence that models could overestimate the number of times where drought occurs, in contrast with normal or humid conditions. On the other hand, False Positive and False Negative rates are important facts for measuring the development of models. In this case, the FP and FN rates are 7.5% and 2% for RF and 21% and 2.5% for DTC respectively, that means that both models made fewer mistakes predicted real drought events, but had more errors forecasting real normal or humid condition, especially, DTC model. RF can provide a better performance predicting drought and normal/humid conditions in contrast with DTC. The implementation of the developed model can allow governmental entities assessment and monitor agricultural drought over time. Taking, in consequence, actions to mitigate the impacts of droughts in their territories.

How to cite: Herrera, D. and Aristizábal, E.: Artificial Intelligence and machine learning model for spatial and temporal prediction of drought in the Colombia Caribbean region., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3599, 2021.

EGU21-3952 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Application of multi drought definitions to forecast streamflow drought across Europe

Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen

Streamflow drought forecasting is a key element of contemporary Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS). The term streamflow drought forecasting, rather than streamflow forecasting, however, has created confusion within the scientific hydro-meteorological community, as well as in operational weather and water management services. Streamflow drought forecasting requires an additional step, which is the application of a drought identification method to the forecasted streamflow time series. The way, how streamflow drought is defined, is the main reason for this misperception. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to provide a comprehensive overview of the application of different drought identification approaches to forecast streamflow drought, incl. its characteristics, such as drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume, across the pan-European river network and for the Rhine River in more detail. In this study, the implications of different approaches for forecasting streamflow drought are elaborated using the extreme 2003 drought in Europe, as an example. The forecasted 25 ensemble streamflow data with 7-month lead time (LT) were obtained from the LISFLOOD hydrological model fed with seasonal meteorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts system 5 (ECMWF SEAS 5). Streamflow droughts were analyzed using the daily and monthly Variable Threshold methods (VTD and VTM), daily and monthly Fixed Threshold methods (FTD and FTM), and the Standardized Streamflow Index with 1-month accumulation period (SSI-1). Our results clearly show that streamflow drought characteristics derived with different approaches deviate, which are partly associated with different climate regions across Europe. Using the forecasts initiated in July 2003 for LT=7-month, first, the daily drought approaches forecast more drought events than the monthly approaches. Second, the VT droughts (VTD and VTM), incl. SSI-1 forecast a lower number of drought occurrences than the FT droughts (FTD and FTM), which highlights the importance of taking seasonality into account. Overall, the FT approaches predict a longer drought duration, earlier drought timing, and higher drought deficit volume in many European rivers than the VT approaches. The characteristics of SSI-1 drought, in general, are close to what is being identified by the VTM approach. A detailed analysis of the drought forecasts for the Rhine River indicates that the number of drought events derived from the median of ensemble members can be predicted relatively well, but with lower skill for other drought characteristics. The use of monthly-aggregated forecasted flow data (e.g. VTM, FTM, and SSI) seems to be the best practice for seasonal drought forecasts because it will alleviate the drought forecast skill. The monthly drought threshold approaches, however, will forecast higher drought duration and deficit volume than using daily datasets. The choice of the drought identification method when forecasting streamflow drought, ultimately rests with the end-users and we need to realize that there is no one drought identification approach that fits all needs.

How to cite: Sutanto, S. J. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Application of multi drought definitions to forecast streamflow drought across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3952, 2021.

EGU21-4496 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

A framework to quantify bias for improved drought forecasting 

Konstantinos Mammas, Demetris F. Lekkas, and Ilias Pechllivanidis

EGU21-6041 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Evaluation of SEAS5 Precipitation Forecasts in the Central American Dry Corridor

Katherine Kowal, Louise Slater, and Anne Van Loon

Seasonal forecasts provide an opportunity to enhance drought preparedness in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Evaluation of seasonal precipitation predictions within the CADC is important because rainfall affects many local livelihoods, and rainfall predictability in this region may be low due to its complex climate and terrain. In this presentation, SEAS5, a leading seasonal forecasting system produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, is evaluated for the accuracy of its precipitation predictions across the CADC relative to the GPCC gridded precipitation dataset derived from rain-gauge data. A few studies have assessed its predecessor (System 4) in Central America but none have assessed SEAS5 in the CADC. SEAS5 predictions of rainfall mean, variability, and extremes are evaluated using one- to seven- month lead-times over 1981-2016 and for known historical droughts. Results show that SEAS5 precipitation forecasts often perform best during July and August, two important months for crop growth because they occur during the mid-summer dry period, which separates the wet season into distinct phases. Elevation seems to have an influence, although alone it does not explain variations in forecast skill across the region. SEAS5 overpredicts rainfall in greater quantities at high elevation. This analysis showcases promising forecast skill of relevance to agricultural forecasting and could be expanded on in future work by evaluating skill of other drought indicators.

How to cite: Kowal, K., Slater, L., and Van Loon, A.: Evaluation of SEAS5 Precipitation Forecasts in the Central American Dry Corridor, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6041, 2021.

EGU21-6499 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

The Temporal Propagation Processes of Multiple Types of Drought in Central Asia

Lu Tian, Sarah Ho, Markus Disse, and Ye Tuo

Drought propagation processes interlink closely with the water cycle, which has so far been mostly investigated without tracking temporal propagation across multiple types of drought. Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Xinjiang (China) areas, is one of the most drought-prone areas in the world and extremely vulnerable to water scarcity. Understanding the multiple pathways of drought propagation over time in Central Asia is necessary for food security, human health, and poverty alleviation. In this study, we quantify the propagation time and track the details of temporal propagation processes of drought across the atmosphere, the geosphere, and the hydrosphere. The standardized indices are calculated using variables directly related to each type of drought: precipitation (SPI), evapotranspiration (SEDI), soil moisture (SSI), and runoff (SRI)1, 2. The drought propagation processes are divided into the development stage and recovery stage. The propagation time at different stages between multiple types of drought is calculated by the Pearson correlation coefficient (p<0.05)3 and run theory method4. Besides, the potential influencing factors on the temporal propagation are explored from the meteorological, land cover, and water management aspects. As the main results, the propagation time in winter is longer than in summer. And topography has a significant impact on drought propagation time. These key findings could further benefit the early warning of drought and facilitate the drought mitigation-adaptation in both Central Asia and other continents.

Keywords: Temporal propagation, Central Asia, Influencing factors, Land cover

1. Gevaert, A. I.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Ward, P. J., The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2018, 22, (9), 4649-4665.
2. Barella-Ortiz, A.; Quintana-Segui, P., Evaluation of drought representation and propagation in regional climate model simulations across Spain. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2019, 23, (12), 5111-5131.
3. Barker, L. J.; Hannaford, J.; Chiverton, A.; Svensson, C., From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2016, 20, (6), 2483-2505.
4. Wu, J. F.; Chen, X. H.; Yao, H. X.; Liu, Z. Y.; Zhang, D. J., Hydrological Drought Instantaneous Propagation Speed Based on the Variable Motion Relationship of Speed-Time Process. Water Resour. Res. 2018, 54, (11), 9549-9565.

How to cite: Tian, L., Ho, S., Disse, M., and Tuo, Y.: The Temporal Propagation Processes of Multiple Types of Drought in Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6499, 2021.

EGU21-7122 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Analyzing the propagation of drought through water storages using global scale GRACE-based data assimilation

Helena Gerdener, Kerstin Schulze, Olga Engels, Jürgen Kusche, Hannes Müller Schmied, Christoph Niemann, Sebastian Ackermann, and Petra Döll

The frequency and severity of drought increase in many regions of the world, which emphasizes the need for sufficient research to better monitor and trigger management plans. An important role hereby plays hydrological drought, because it affects water supply and crop yields that are necessary to ensure food security. Typically, hydrological drought detection is based on in-situ observations of fluxes or storages at the surface. However, this neglects the fact that drought might occur in multiple storages with different timing and severity.  The use of subsurface storage, e.g. groundwater, is rare because the available in-situ well level monitoring is irregularly distributed in space and time and access might be restricted, for example due to national security reasons or problems in converting them to storage estimates.

The satellite mission Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor GRACE-FO offer a great possibility to observe the total water storage, i.e. the sum of surface and subsurface storages, on a global scale from space. However, GRACE is restricted to monthly data on a spatial resolution of about 300 km and the vertical sum of the storages. Hydrological models present another possibility to derive global storage information with a finer spatial (~50km), temporal and vertical resolution than GRACE but they do not perfectly represent the reality because they are underlying assumptions and are affected by uncertainty of forcing data. Therefore, to enable downscaling of GRACE while improving the models realism, the GRACE measurements are assimilated into a hydrological model.

In previous works we used a framework that assimilates GRACE into the WaterGAP Global Hydrological Model (WGHM) regionally or basin-wise. In this work we present a new framework that globally assimilates GRACE on a 4 degree grid with full uncertainty information from 2003 to 2018. The framework enables to assimilate about 95% of the global WGHM land surface except Greenland. With regard to vertical and spatial resolution the performance of model, observation and assimilation is compared. Global GRACE based drought indicators are applied and its development in the different compartments of surface water, soil and groundwater is analyzed to identify new insights into the propagation of drought. We expect that by including GRACE we derive new information especially for groundwater droughts, which might reveal time lags and a different severity as compared to surface water droughts for some regions.

How to cite: Gerdener, H., Schulze, K., Engels, O., Kusche, J., Müller Schmied, H., Niemann, C., Ackermann, S., and Döll, P.: Analyzing the propagation of drought through water storages using global scale GRACE-based data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7122, 2021.

Being responsible for about 70% of the world’s freshwater use, agricultural irrigation practices have a strong impact on water budgets in dryland environments and will increase to do so, as an increase in irrigated areas worldwide is expected. In semi-arid catchments, irrigation can account for a substantial proportion of the water budget, especially during the dry season. Consequently, due to the limited water resources, these catchments rely on adequate water management practices. Water withdrawal from groundwater, river flow or reservoirs for irrigation purposes alter the overall hydrological balance. Being aware of such important impacts on the regional (meso-scale) water budget, hydrological models should improve their capability to account for them, including typical operational data availability and constraints. Thus, the answers on water management issues should be addressed, such as, how do these withdrawals alter the rivers’ flow regime and water yield? How do they affect sustainability of regional water resources, both in a seasonal and long-term time scale? Can public irrigation data be used to improve the performance of a catchment model?

To account for this particular anthropogenic interference with the hydrological cycle a novel irrigation module is introduced to improve meso-scale hydrological models’ performance for such hydro-climatic conditions. We implemented this module into WASA-SED, a hydro-sedimentological model tailored for semi-arid catchments on the meso-scale, now enabling to account for irrigation practices in the modelling process. The module allows to represent water abstraction from different sources (ground water, river, reservoirs), inter- and intra- basin transfers and seasonality of irrigation schemes. As a test case, a semi-arid catchment with excellent irrigation data in the Rio Sao Francisco basin, Brazil, was chosen to investigate exemplarily the impact of irrigation operations on the low river flows in the dry season. Using publicly available irrigation data as input for this module, it could be shown, that including irrigation practices into the modelling process helps to improve the model’s performance.

Furthermore, modelling results can be used to estimate the real water withdrawal rates, as there is uncertainty about how much water the users actually withdraw, because irrigation data from the Brazilian authorities shows the maximum withdrawal rates, as defined in contracts for water use for river water, but not the actually used water rates, which might be different (less or sometimes even more) than the contracts’ maximum rates. Whether the users withdraw more or less water than officially granted is uncertain. The model’s results can be used to estimate realistic withdrawal rates as well as to predict further irrigation potential in the given catchment. Likewise, the effect of exploiting different sources for irrigation water (i.e., rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater) can be analysed in terms of their reliability and effect on the river system.

How to cite: Voit, P.: How much water remains? Incorporating publicly available irrigation data to improve meso-scale hydrological model performance in dryland environments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10169, 2021.

EGU21-10886 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Development of a Next Generation Drought Index: combining multiple global and local data sources to enable detection of sector-specific drought impacts

Dimmie Hendriks, Pieter Hazenberg, Jonas Gotte, Patricia Trambauer, Arjen Haag, Gennadii Donchyts, and Frederiek Sperna Weiland

An increasing number of regions and countries are confronted with droughts as well as an increase in water demand. Inevitably, this leads to an increasing pressure on the available water resources and associated risks and economic impact for the water dependent sectors. In order to prevent big drought impacts, such as agricultural damage and food insecurity, timely and focused drought mitigation measures need to be carried out. To enable this, the detection of drought and its sector-specific risks at early stages needs to be improved. One of the main challenges is to develop compound and impact-oriented drought indices, that make optimal use of innovative techniques, satellite products, local data and other big data sets.

Here, we present the development of a Next Generation Drought Index (NGDI) that combines multiple freely available global data sources (eg. ERA5, MODIS, PCR-GLOBWB) to calculate a range of relevant drought hazard indices related to meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture and agricultural drought (eg. SPI, SPEI, SRI, SGI, VCI). The drought hazard indices are aggregated at district level, while considering the percentage area exposure of the drought impacted sector (exposure). In addition, the indices are enriched with local and national scale drought impact information (eg. online news items, social media data, EM-DAT database, GDO Drought news, national drought reports). Results are presented at sub-national scales in interactive spatial and temporal views, showing the combined drought indices and impact data.

The NGDI approach is being tested for the agricultural sector in Mali, a country with a vulnerable population and economy that faces frequent dry spells which heavily impact the functioning of the important agricultural activities that sustain a large part of the population. The computed drought indices are compared with local drought data and an analysis is made of the cross-correlations between the indices within the NGDI and collected impact data.

We aim at providing the NGDI information to a broad audience as well as co-creation of further NGDI developments. Hence, we would like to reach out to interested parties and identify collaboration opportunities.

How to cite: Hendriks, D., Hazenberg, P., Gotte, J., Trambauer, P., Haag, A., Donchyts, G., and Sperna Weiland, F.: Development of a Next Generation Drought Index: combining multiple global and local data sources to enable detection of sector-specific drought impacts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10886, 2021.

EGU21-14019 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecasts data to predicting reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area.

Antonio Francipane, Elisa Arnone, and Leonardo Valerio Noto

Artificial reservoirs are one of the main water supply resources in the Mediterranean areas; their management can be strongly affected by the problems of drought and water scarcity. The reservoir water level is the result of the hydrological processes occurring in the upstream catchment, which, in turn, depend on meteorological variables, such as rainfall and temperature. It follows that a reliable forecast model of the meteorological forcing, along with a reliable water balance model, could enhance the correct management of a reservoir. With regard to the rainfall/temperature forecast model, the use of forecast climate data in the mid-term may provide further support for the future water level estimation of reservoirs.

From the perspective of the water balance model, instead, among the approaches used to predict the water levels for the next future, those based on data-driven methods have been demonstrated to be particularly capable of correctly reproducing the correlation between a dependent variable (e.g., water level, volume) and some covariates (e.g., temperature, precipitation).

This study describes the preliminary results of a novel application that exploits the Seasonal Forecast (SF) data, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), within a data-driven model aimed to predict the reservoir water volume at mid-term scale, up to 6 months ahead in four reservoirs of the Sicily (Italy) here considered as a case study. For each case, a NARX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous inputs) neural network is calibrated to reproduce the monthly stored water volume starting from the monthly precipitation and mean monthly air temperature variables.

Preliminary results showed that the NARXs have the capability to reproduce the water levels in the investigated period (January 2017 - April 2020), including the variations during more or less dry periods. All this despite the SF data have not been previously treated with downscaling and/or bias correction techniques.

How to cite: Francipane, A., Arnone, E., and Noto, L. V.: Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecasts data to predicting reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14019, 2021.

EGU21-16147 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Seasonal to sub-seasonal hydrological forecast in Central Asia to improve water management and mitigate hydrometeorological risks

Abror Gafurov, Olga Kalashnikova, Uktam Adkhamov, Akmal Gafurov, Adkham Mamaraimov, and Djafar Niyazov

Central Asia is facing a water shortage due to the negative impacts of climate change and demographic development. Water resources in this region originate mainly in the mountains of Pamir and Tian-Shan due to snow-and glacier melt. However, a limited observation network is available in these mountain systems and many are malfunctioning. Thus, the region needs new innovative methods to forecast seasonal and sub-seasonal water availability to ensure better water resources management and mitigate hydro-meteorological risks.

In this study, we present the results of our efforts for many years to develop a forecasting tool and implementation in the region. Since the region has limited observed meteorological data, we use primarily remote sensing data on snow cover for this purpose. We apply the MODIS snow cover data that is processed, including cloud removal, using the MODSNOW-Tool. We have applied this tool, which can be used to monitor snow cover in an operational mode and forecast water availability for the vegetation period but also for the monthly scale using the multiple linear regression method.

Our results show that snow is important in most of the river basins and can also be used as a single predictor to forecast seasonal water availability. Especially, in remote areas with limited observations, this approach gives a possibility of forecasting water availability for different time period. Besides seasonal hydrological forecast, the MODSNOW-Tool was also used to forecast water availability for upcoming months. The validity of forecasts were tested against observed discharge for the last 20 years and mostly above 70 % verification was achieved. Additionally to remote sensing based snow cover data, observed meteorological information was also used as predictors and improved the validity of forecast models in some river basins.

The implementation of the MODSNOW-Tool to improve the hydrological forecast was done for 28 river basins in Central Asia that are located in the territories of five post-Soviet countries Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.  The MODSNOW-Tool was also implemented at the National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS) of each post-Soviet country.

How to cite: Gafurov, A., Kalashnikova, O., Adkhamov, U., Gafurov, A., Mamaraimov, A., and Niyazov, D.: Seasonal to sub-seasonal hydrological forecast in Central Asia to improve water management and mitigate hydrometeorological risks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16147, 2021.

EGU21-16318 | vPICO presentations | HS4.2

Short-term hydrological drought forecasting in the Paute river basin, Ecuadorian Andes

Ronnie Javier Araneda-Cabrera, María Bermudez, and Jerónimo Puertas

Hydrological droughts can trigger socioeconomic disruptions which can cause large impacts on societies. Therefore, their forecast is extremely important for early warning and disaster mitigation. Several modelling approaches have been developed for this purpose, and models based on machine learning have become popular during the last decades. In this study, we evaluated the performance of five commonly used models in drought forecasting: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), multiple linear (MLM), Random Forest (RF), K-nearest Neighbours (KN) and Artificial Networks (ANN) models.
The study site was the Paute River basin (4816.56 km2) located in the mid-high and eastern part of the Ecuadorian Andes. The "Daniel Palacios" dam, the oldest of 4 strategic dams and which alone generates 35% of Ecuador's national energy demand, was considered the lowest point in the basin. The basin is susceptible to hydrological droughts, which have led to power shortages in the past (e.g., in 1995, 1999 and 2009).
As hydrological drought predictand we used the monthly Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) accumulated at 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months, while the predictor variables were precipitation, temperature, river flow and the climatic indices associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO (El Niño 1+2, El Niño 3, El Niño 4, and El Niño 3.4, which are strongly related to droughts in Ecuador). Data were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) and the Climate Prediction Centre of NOAA.
The models were evaluated for lead times of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months through the determination coefficient (R2), the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The models' capability to distinguish between occurrence and non-occurrence of droughts (here defined as SSI≤-1) was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) diagram. Models were validated using the expanding window (walk forward approach) as a back testing strategy starting as calibration and validation periods Aug/1984-Dec/2010 and Jan/2011-Dec/2019 (75 and 25% of the data, respectively).
As expected, SSI at longer aggregations can be predicted more accurately than at shorter ones with all models. This fact is explained because the former ones more effectively reduce the noise than the latter due to the increase in filter length. The greater the lead time, the less reliable the prediction. Considering a lead time of 1 month, the best model was the ANN for SSI-1 and SSI-3 (R2=0.64, ROC=0.67; and R2=0.78, ROC=1.00 respectively), and the MLM model for SSI-6 and SSI-12 (R2=0.86, ROC=0.66, and R2=0.96, ROC=0.99 respectively). However, very similar performances were obtained in the latter cases by the ANN model (R2=0.86, ROC=0.66 R2=0.91 and ROC=0.75 respectively) and the ARIMA model (R2=0.83, ROC=0.98 R2=0.93 and ROC=0.99 respectively). ARIMA models showed large errors for lead times longer than 1 month, so an ANN model is recommended. However, to maximize their potential, further research could explore modifications of the ANN architecture or the input data. Results indicate that these models can be used to forecast hydrological droughts in the Paute river basin and can be used to support reservoir operation decisions.

How to cite: Araneda-Cabrera, R. J., Bermudez, M., and Puertas, J.: Short-term hydrological drought forecasting in the Paute river basin, Ecuadorian Andes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16318, 2021.

HS4.3 – Ensemble and probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts: predictive uncertainty, verification and decision making

EGU21-299 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Accounting for high-dimensional predictors in RFA with MARS 

Amina Msilini, Pierre Masselot, and Taha B.M.J. Ouarda

Hydrological processes and phenomena are naturally complex and nonlinear. Many physiographical variables such as those dealing with drainage network characteristics may influence streamflow characteristics and should be considered in regional frequency analysis (RFA). These variables have hence a significant impact on the effectiveness of flood quantile estimation techniques. Although many statistical tools are considered to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites in the hydrological literature, little attention has been given to the nonlinearity and to the high-dimensionality of physio-meteorological variable space. In this study, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) approach is introduced in RFA. This model allows to account simultaneously for non-linearity and interactions between variables hidden in high-dimensional data. MARS is hereby applied on two datasets of 151 hydrometric stations located in the southern part of the province of Quebec (Canada): a standard dataset (STA) including commonly used variables and an extended dataset (EXTD) combining STA with additional variables dealing with drainage network characteristics. It is then compared to generalized additive models (GAM), a state-of-the-art method for regional estimation. Numerical results show that MARS outperforms GAM, especially with the extensive database EXTD. The study suggests that MARS may be a promising tool to take into account the complexity of the hydrological phenomena involved and the increasing number of variables used in RFA.

How to cite: Msilini, A., Masselot, P., and Ouarda, T. B. M. J.: Accounting for high-dimensional predictors in RFA with MARS , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-299, 2021.

EGU21-1644 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Improving Deep Learning hydrological time series modeling using Gaussian Filter preprocessing

Rahim Barzegar, Jan Adamowski, and John Quilty

Hydrological time series modeling is an important task in water resources planning and management. However, time series may include noise, which can result in an inaccurate model. Therefore, removing noise from time series is valuable to obtain accurate predictions. The aims of this study are i) to develop and compare Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurring Units (GRU) Deep Learning (DL) models to predict hydrological time series and ii) to integrate a preprocessing method, Gaussian Filter (GF), to smooth out time series and couple it with DL to improve prediction accuracy. Moreover, the DL models are benchmarked against statistical time series models (e.g., Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA)) to assess their added value for hydrological time series modeling. To establish predictive models, several monthly hydrological time series including water level (e.g., from the Great Lakes in North America, including Lakes Michigan, Ontario, and Erie (1918-2019)) and streamflow (e.g., gauging stations at Umfreville, along the English River, Ontario, Canada (1921-2019), Rapides Fryers, along the Richelieu River, Quebec, Canada (1937-2020) and near Lethbridge, along the Oldman River, Alberta, Canada (1957-2019)) were explored. For developing non-GF- and GF-DL models, time series were partitioned into training (70% of the data) and testing (the remaining 30% of the data) subsets and the time series’ past measurements up to 12 months (t-1, t-2, ..., t-12) were served to the DL models (LSTM and GRU) to predict the time series at time t. The structure of the DL models was tuned using Bayesian optimization. The SARIMA models (i.e., non-GF- and GF-SARIMA) were also implemented and tuned using pmdarima's auto-arima function. After calibrating the models, the testing step was implemented and the performance of the models was evaluated using statistical indicators including correlation coefficient, root mean square error, mean absolute error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, and Willmot’s index. The results of the developed DL models showed that the GRU outperforms the LSTM models. Moreover, both LSTM and GRU have superior performance when compared to the SARIMA models. It is observed that GF preprocessing significantly improves the accuracy of the developed DL and SARIMA models. It is concluded that coupling GF preprocessing with DL, due to capturing both linear and nonlinear features of the time series, represents a promising tool for obtaining accurate hydrological time series predictions.

How to cite: Barzegar, R., Adamowski, J., and Quilty, J.: Improving Deep Learning hydrological time series modeling using Gaussian Filter preprocessing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1644, 2021.

EGU21-3714 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Do you want Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasts?    Ask MuTHRE!

Mark Thyer, David McInerney, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera

Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts (with lead times of 1-30 days) provide valuable information for many consequential water resource management decisions, including reservoir operation to meet environmental flow and irrigation demands, issuance of early flood warnings, and others. A key aim is to produce “seamless” forecasts, with high quality performance across the full range of lead times and time scales.  

This presentation introduces the Multi-Temporal Hydrological Residual Error model (MuTHRE) to address the challenge of obtaining “seamless” sub-seasonal forecasts, i.e., daily forecasts with consistent high-quality performance over multiple lead times (1-30 days) and aggregation scales (daily to monthly).

The model is designed to overcome common errors in streamflow forecasts:

  • Seasonality
  • Dynamic biases due to hydrological non-stationarity
  • Extreme errors poorly represented by the common Gaussian distribution.

The model is evaluated comprehensively over 11 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using multiple performance metrics to scrutinize forecast reliability, sharpness and bias, across a range of lead times, months and years, at daily and monthly time scales.

The MuTHRE model provides ”high” improvements, in terms of reliability for

  • Short lead times (up to 10 days), due to representing non-Gaussian errors
  • Stratified by month, due to representing seasonality in hydrological errors
  • Dry years, due to representing dynamic biases in hydrological errors.

Forecast performance also improved in terms of sharpness, volumetric bias and CRPS skill score; Importantly, improvements are consistent across multiple time scales (daily and monthly).

This study highlights the benefits of modelling multiple temporal characteristics of hydrological errors, and demonstrates the power of the MuTHRE model for producing seamless sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts that can be utilized for a wide range of applications.

 

 

 

How to cite: Thyer, M., McInerney, D., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Tuteja, N., and Kuczera, G.: Do you want Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasts?    Ask MuTHRE!, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3714, 2021.

EGU21-6228 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Coupling meteorological forecasts with hydrologic and hydraulic models: The Itaipu Dam ensemble inflow forecasting system

José Quevedo, Daniel Firmo Kazay, Mariana Maria Werlang, Giovanni Gomes, Roberto Takahashi, Marcelo Zaicovski, Tannia Villanueva Aguero, and José Maria Fariña Jara

This work presents the development of the inflow ensemble forecasting system for Itaipu Dam. The system is based on combination of twelve Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) with three hydrological models and one hydrodynamic one-dimensional model. The QPF are provided by different meteorological institutions based in the results of the global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models GFS and ECMWF, as well as of the regional NWP models WRF and COSMO executed by the Brazilian and Paraguay meteorological services (SIMEPAR, INMET and DINAC). The semi-distributed model MGB – Large Basin Model, the lumped models SMAP and HEC-HMS are considered as the hydrological models. Furthermore, the computed flows are propagated in a HEC-RAS scheme designed with extensive field data from bathymetry of Parana River and tributaries. The daily results are presented as fifteen inflow scenarios that are considered for the definition of a unique flow forecast. Finally, that forecast is used for the electric generation scheduling of the power plant. Each of these fifteen methods performance was evaluated as well as the suitability of the system for it purposes. For a short-term forecast horizon (less than 4 days), the performances of the hydrological models forced by the different rain forecast are quite similar. However, it is remarkable the difference between the results of the three hydrological models for the same horizon. On the other hand, for medium-term horizon (more than 4 days) both hydrological and meteorological models have diverse behavior and contribute for a wide representation of the possible scenarios. Overall, it has been showed that the simulations are complementary and provides to the forecaster a general overview of the hydrologic situation. Nevertheless, at this moment, further analysis of accuracy and reliability of the prediction have not been realized, so the forecaster needs to appeal to its own expertise to assure the consistence of the scenarios for decision-making.

How to cite: Quevedo, J., Firmo Kazay, D., Maria Werlang, M., Gomes, G., Takahashi, R., Zaicovski, M., Villanueva Aguero, T., and Fariña Jara, J. M.: Coupling meteorological forecasts with hydrologic and hydraulic models: The Itaipu Dam ensemble inflow forecasting system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6228, 2021.

EGU21-8000 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Evaluation of a short-term ensemble water level forecasting system: case of the Chaudière River

Mohammed Amine Bessar, François Anctil, and Pascal Matte

The quality of water level predictions is highly dependent on the success of the flow forecasts that inform the hydraulic model. Ensemble predictions, by considering several sources of uncertainty, provide more accurate and reliable forecasts. In this project, we aim to evaluate a water level ensemble prediction system coupling a hydraulic model to an ensemble streamflow prediction system accounting for 3 sources of uncertainty: meteorological data, hydrological processing (multimodel) and data assimilation to update the initial conditions. The hydraulic model is previously calibrated and validated and the roughness coefficients are adapted as a function of flow according to predefined relationships developed for several river segments. The forecasts reliability and accuracy are then assessed at each layer of the forecasting system and the outcomes are illustrated comparing the ensembles skills and reliability for the considered events. Overall, the results show that accounting of the hydrometeorological uncertainty improves the performances of the water level forecasts for different lead times.

How to cite: Bessar, M. A., Anctil, F., and Matte, P.: Evaluation of a short-term ensemble water level forecasting system: case of the Chaudière River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8000, 2021.

EGU21-8092 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Quantifying streamflow predictability across North America on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales

Louise Arnal, Martyn Clark, Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Alain Pietroniro, and Andy Wood

Sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts represent critical operational inputs for many water sector applications of societal relevance, such as spring flood early warning, water supply, hydropower generation, and irrigation scheduling. However, the skill of such forecasts has not risen greatly in recent decades despite recognizable advances in many relevant capabilities, including hydrologic modeling and S2S climate prediction. In order to build a continental-scale forecasting system that has value at the local scale, the sources and nature of predictability in the forecasts should be quantified and communicated. This can additionally help to target science investments for tangible improvements in the sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting skill.

As part of the Canada-based Global Water Futures (GWF) program, we are advancing capabilities for probabilistic sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts over North America. The overall aim is to improve sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts for a range of water sector applications. We are implementing an array of forecasting methods that integrate state-of-the-art mechanistic models and statistical methods. These include, for instance, a probabilistic sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting system based on quantile regression of snow water equivalent observations, and a system based on the ESP approach (Day, 1985).

To guide forecast system developments over North America, we are currently quantifying streamflow predictability for different hydroclimatic regimes, forecast initialization times, and lead times, against both streamflow simulations and observations to quantify the effect of model errors. Building on the work from Wood et al. (2016) and Arnal et al. (2017), we are disentangling the dominant predictability sources (i.e., initial hydrological conditions and atmospheric forcings) of sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow across North American watersheds. The results provide insights into the elasticity of predictability, i.e., the increase in streamflow forecast skill possible by improving a specific component of the forecast system, and will inform the forecasting system development.

Arnal Louise, Wood Andrew W., Stephens Elisabeth, Cloke Hannah L., Pappenberger Florian, 2017: An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1

Day, Gerald N., 1985: Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1985)111:2(157)

Wood, Andrew W., Tom Hopson, Andy Newman, Levi Brekke, Jeff Arnold, and Martyn Clark, 2016: Quantifying streamflow forecast skill elasticity to initial condition and climate prediction skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0213.1

How to cite: Arnal, L., Clark, M., Vionnet, V., Fortin, V., Pietroniro, A., and Wood, A.: Quantifying streamflow predictability across North America on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8092, 2021.

EGU21-8098 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Designing an optimal flood forecasting chain using convective-scale ensembles: a sensitivity study.

Céline Cattoën, Stuart Moore, and Trevor Carey-Smith

Flooding is New Zealand’s most frequent natural disaster with an average annual cost of approximately NZ$51 million. Accurately forecasting convective and orographically enhanced precipitation for hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems is challenging in Aotearoa New Zealand’s complex topographic regions with fast-responding and mostly ungauged catchments. Globally, designing convection-permitting ensemble flood forecasting chains is still a work in progress, with errors in the forecast rainfall amount and the location or timing of storm events a significant contributor to uncertainties in river flow forecasts. Given operational, computational and model representation constraints, compromises are often required on ensemble size, frequency of forecast issue times, NWP model resolution, domain size and data assimilation strategies. This research aims to design an optimal operational forecasting chain for convective-scale flood forecasting in New Zealand.  In doing so, our goal is to improve uncertainty representation in hydrometeorological forecasts during flood events by understanding the impact of convective-scale ensemble strategies.

The NWP model used is a local implementation of the UK Met Office-developed Unified Model.  The New Zealand Convective-Scale Model (NZCSM) is NIWA’s 1.5km high-resolution operational forecast model, configured such that convective processes develop explicitly. The New Zealand Ensemble (NZENS) is configured with similar convection-permitting model physics but operates with a 4.5km horizontal resolution and features up to 18 members.  Flood forecasts were produced by coupling several weather ensemble configurations with the semi-distributed hydrological model TopNet and its built-in statistical ensemble generation tool. TopNet is based on TOPMODEL concepts of runoff generation controlled by sub-surface water storage.

In this study, we evaluated three ensemble strategies for flood forecasting. The experiment design allowed for the effect of model horizontal resolution (and thus the representation of orography) to be investigated using ensemble forecasts from consecutive initialization times (a “lagged ensemble”), and from the same initialisation time (a “dynamical ensemble”). The third forecasting chain is a “statistical ensemble” generated by perturbing the deterministic 1.5km NWP model and hydrological states. For recent flood events across multiple case study catchments, we evaluated the impact of each approach on flood forecast performance. Flood forecasts were most sensitive to convective-scale forecasts with consecutive issue time initialisations (lagged ensemble) over other hydrometeorological ensemble configurations considered. Given dynamical ensembles are computationally expensive, the study suggests an optimal strategy might be to produce a small ensemble pool of dynamical forecasts at more frequent issue times combined with statistically post-processed ensembles rather than a larger ensemble pool generated less frequently.

How to cite: Cattoën, C., Moore, S., and Carey-Smith, T.: Designing an optimal flood forecasting chain using convective-scale ensembles: a sensitivity study., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8098, 2021.

EGU21-8888 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Investigating the forecast predictability for fluvial flooding from tropical cyclones

Helen Titley, Hannah Cloke, Shaun Harrigan, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme, Joanne Robbins, Elizabeth Stephens, and Ervin Zsoter

Global ensemble forecast models have been shown to have good skill in forecasting the track probabilities of tropical cyclones worldwide, but less well-studied is their ability to predict the hazards resulting from tropical cyclones, which in the case of fluvial flooding can extend far from the landfall location traditionally focussed on in operational tropical cyclone warnings. This work aims to investigate the key factors that influence the predictability of fluvial flood severity from tropical cyclones, using forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS is jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and is designed to provide a global overview of upcoming flood events to decision makers as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, producing probabilistic river discharge forecasts driven by global ECMWF ensemble forecasts coupled to a hydrological model. This presentation will explore the chain of uncertainty through the forecasting process for several recent tropical cyclone flood events including Hurricane Iota and Cyclone Nivar. It investigates the influence on the overall predictability and uncertainty of the fluvial flood forecasts of various components of the forecasting chain, including the track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts for the tropical cyclone, and the hydrological catchment conditions and modelling.

How to cite: Titley, H., Cloke, H., Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Robbins, J., Stephens, E., and Zsoter, E.: Investigating the forecast predictability for fluvial flooding from tropical cyclones, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8888, 2021.

EGU21-10542 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks for Estimating Missing Rainfall Data

Roya Narimani and Jun Changhyun

The quality and completeness of rainfall data have always played an important role in time series analysis and prediction for future water-related disasters. It requires to estimate missing data correctly for better results of rainfall prediction with high accuracy. In recent years, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks have been applied to solve stochastic problems in data science. This study suggests a novel approach for estimating missing rainfall data with MLP neural networks. For this purpose, a mathematical model was created to analyze and predict the time series of daily rainfall data from 2003 to 2017 at six rain gauge stations in Seoul, Korea. Here, rainfall data with missing values during 20 days of time periods was considered for reconstruction of missing data at one specific rain gauge station from complete rainfall data records at five different stations. They were divided into training, validation, and testing datasets with a percentage of 70%, 15%, and 15%, respectively. This study investigates an effect of changes in data periods considered in MLP neural networks and it indicates that rainfall time series for a longer time period play a more effective role in rainfall data reconstruction.

How to cite: Narimani, R. and Changhyun, J.: Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks for Estimating Missing Rainfall Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10542, 2021.

EGU21-11770 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Developing semi-distributed hydrological models for streamflow forecasting in upper Narmada River basin

Ankit Singh, Soubhik Mondal, and Sanjeev Kumar Jha

Short-term streamflow forecast is important for various hydrological applications such as, estimating inflow to reservoirs, sending alarms in case of extreme events like flood and flash floods etc. Flooding events in last few years in the Indian subcontinent emphasized the importance of more accurate streamflow forecasts and the possible benefit of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models has been confirmed. In India, National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) provides rainfall forecasts from its UK Met office Unified Model based deterministic model (NCUM), and ensemble prediction system (NEPS). The comparison of NCMRWF with the forecast from other agencies such as Japan Metrological Agency (JMA)and European Center for Medium Range Forecast (ECMWF) have been addressed in this work. Global NWP models developed by different international agencies applydifferent algorithms, initial and boundaries conditions.The usefulness of several forecasts in streamflow forecasting is still being investigated in India. Recent studies on streamflow forecasting by using different NWP models shows that the performance of streamflow forecasts directly depends on the skill of NWP models. Hydrological model also plays a vital role in stream flow forecasting, because different hydrological model have different structure, parameters and algorithms to simulate the flow.

            In this study we use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) a Hydrological Response Unit (HRU’s) based hydrological model. HRU is the area that contains similar type of soil, land use and slope properties in a subbasin. For comparison, the streamflow generated from the forecasted rainfall by NWP, we select three different NWP models namely JMA, ECMWF and NCMRWF for streamflow forecasting. Manot watershed part of Narmada River basin in central India is selected as the study area for this study. Streamflow is examined for monsoon (June to September) period of 2018 at multiple lead times i.e. 1 to 5 days. Rain-gauge based gridded Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall product is used as observed data in SWAT. All rainfall products are at 0.25*0.25-degree spatial resolution. The preliminary comparison between the simulated streamflow and the observation shows that the stream flow patterns produced by various forecast products are in good comparison with high peaks. Our results also indicate that the forecast accuracy of NCMRWF is closely comparable with other forecast products for all lead time. In addition, the setup of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the hydrological model for Streamflow forecasting is in progress. The VIC model is a grid-based model with variable infiltration soil layers and each of this layer characterizes the soil hydrological responses and heterogeneity in land cover classes. For routing, VIC model divides the whole basin into grides and water balance is calculated at the outlet of each and every grid and the flow simulate according to the flow direction. This model considers both the baseflow and the surface flow. The detailed results of ongoing work will be presented at the conference.

How to cite: Singh, A., Mondal, S., and Jha, S. K.: Developing semi-distributed hydrological models for streamflow forecasting in upper Narmada River basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11770, 2021.

EGU21-12145 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Impact of bias correction techniques on an ensemble of seasonal discharge forecast for the Danube upstream of Vienna

Ignacio Martin Santos, Mathew Herrnegger, and Hubert Holzmann

The skill of seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts with a lead time of up to six months is currently limited, since they frequently exhibit random but also systematic errors. Bias correction algorithms can be applied and provide an effective approach in removing historical biases relative to observations. Systematic errors in hydrology model outputs can be consequence of different sources: i) errors in meteorological data used as input data, ii) errors in the hydrological model response to climate forcings, iii) unknown/unobservable internal states and iv) errors in the model parameterizations, also due to unresolved subgrid scale variability.

Normally, bias correction techniques are used to correct meteorological, e.g. precipitation data, provided by climate models. Only few studies are available applying these techniques to hydrological model outputs. Standard bias correction techniques used in literature can be classified into scaling-, and distributional-based methods. The former consists of using multiplicative or additive scaling factors to correct the modeled simulations, while the later methods are quantile mapping techniques that fit the distribution of the simulation to fit to the observations. In this study, the impact of different bias correction techniques on the seasonal discharge forecasts skill is assessed.

As a case study, a seasonal discharge forecasting system developed for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna, is used. The studied basin covers an area of around 100 000 km2 and is subdivided in 65 subbasins, 55 of them gauged with a long historical record of observed discharge. The forecast system uses the calibrated hydrological model, COSERO, which is fed with an ensemble of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts. The output of the model provides an ensemble of seasonal discharge forecasts for each of the (gauged) subbasins. Seasonal meteorological forecasts for the past (hindcast), together with historical discharge observations, allow to assess the quality of the seasonal discharge forecasting system, also including the effects of different bias correction methods. The corrections applied to the discharge simulations allow to eliminate potential systematic errors between the modeled and observed values.

Our findings generally suggest that the quality of the seasonal forecasts improve when applying bias correction. Compared to simpler methods, which use additive or multiplicative scaling factors, quantile mapping techniques tend to be more appropriate in removing errors in the ensemble seasonal forecasts.

How to cite: Martin Santos, I., Herrnegger, M., and Holzmann, H.: Impact of bias correction techniques on an ensemble of seasonal discharge forecast for the Danube upstream of Vienna, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12145, 2021.

EGU21-12896 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Estimation of Uncertainty Contribution of Multiple Sources of GCMs in Hydrological Prediction.

Rakesh Kumar Sinha and T.I. Eldho

The estimation of the impacts of climate change on hydrology at the local level comprises various sources of uncertainty. Especially, global climate models (GCMs) are found to be one of the major sources of uncertainty at the local level and it is important to identify for robust water resource planning and management. Therefore, this study demonstrates the separate and multi-model ensemble GCMs uncertainty for the surface runoff projections for near, mid, and far future under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (present condition) and RCP 8.5 (worst condition) at medium level river sub-basins scale in the Western Ghats region of India. The results indicate that considered GCMs are not appropriate for use to prediction of peak surface runoff in the wet season. In addition, uncertainty from ensemble GCMs is closer to actual data than individual GCM because of closely associated with ensemble rainfall data which is maximum influencing the peak surface runoff for the near mid, and far future. Furthermore, findings also suggest that the selection of appropriate GCMs for the study of peak flow analysis at the local level is important for the projection of future surface runoff. Therefore, it is also important to make attention to rainfall data while projecting surface runoff for future time periods in the humid tropic regions.

How to cite: Sinha, R. K. and Eldho, T. I.: Estimation of Uncertainty Contribution of Multiple Sources of GCMs in Hydrological Prediction., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12896, 2021.

EGU21-13262 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Machine learning approaches to parameter calibration and uncertainty propagation for seasonal flood risk prediction 

Oliver Bent, Julian Kuehnert, Sekou Remy, Anne Jones, and Blair Edwards
The increase in extreme weather associated with acute climate change is leading to more frequent and severe flood events.  In the window of months and years, climate change adaption is critical to mitigate risk on socio-economic systems. Mathematical and computational models have become widely used tools to quantify the impact of catastrophic flooding and to predict future flood risks. For decision makers to plan ahead and to select informed policies and interventions, it is vital that the uncertainties of these models are well estimated. Besides the inherent uncertainty of the mathematical model, uncertainties arise from parameter calibration and the driving observational climate data.
Here we focus on the uncertainty of seasonal flood risk prediction for which we treat uncertainty propagation as a two step process. Firstly through calibration of model parameter distributions based on observational data. In order to propagate parameter uncertainties, the posed calibration framework is required to infer model parameter posterior distributions, as opposed to a single best-fit estimate. While secondly uncertainty is propagated by the seasonal weather forecasts driving the flood risk prediction models, such model drivers have their own inherent uncertainty as predictions. Through handling both sources of uncertainty and its propagation we investigate the impacts of combined uncertainty quantification methods for flooding predictions. The first step focussing on the flooding models own characterisation of uncertainty and the second characterising how uncertain model drivers impact our future predictions.
In order to achieve the above features of a calibration framework for flood models we leverage concepts from machine learning. At the core we assume a minimisation of a loss function by the methods based on the supervised learning task in order to achieve calibration of the flood model. Uncertainty quantification is equally a growing field in machine learning or AI with regards the interpretability of parametric models. For this purpose we have adopted a Bayesian framework which contains natural descriptions of model expectation and variance. Through combining uncertainty quantification with the steps of supervised learning for parameter calibrations we propose a novel approach for seasonal flood risk prediction.

How to cite: Bent, O., Kuehnert, J., Remy, S., Jones, A., and Edwards, B.: Machine learning approaches to parameter calibration and uncertainty propagation for seasonal flood risk prediction , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13262, 2021.

EGU21-13960 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Deep Learning Stream Temperature Model: Recommendations for Modeling Gauged and Ungauged Basins

Farshid Rahmani, Kathryn Lawson, Samantha Oliver, Alison Appling, and Chaopeng Shen

Stream water temperature (Ts) is a variable that plays a pivotal role in managing water resources. We used the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning architecture to develop a basin centric single Ts model based on general meteorological data and basin meteo-geological attributes. We created a strong tool for long-term Ts projection and subsequently, improved the Ts model using novel approaches. We investigated the impact of both observed and simulated streamflow data on improving the model accuracy. At a national scale, we obtained a median root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.69 oC, and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.985, which are marked improvements over previous values reported in previous studies. In order to test the performance of the model on basins ranging from basins with extensive data to unmonitored basins, we used more than 400 basins with different data-availability groups (DAG) across the continent of the United States to explore how to assemble the training dataset for both monitored and unmonitored basins. Best root-mean-square error (RMSE) for sites with extensive (99%), intermediate (60%), scarce (10%) and absent (0%) data for training were 0.75, 0.837, 0.889, and 1.595 oC, respectively. We observed the negative effect of the presence of reservoirs in Ts modeling. Our results illustrated that the most suitable training set should be different in modeling basins with different availability of observed data. for predicting Ts in a monitored basin, including basins that have at least equal DAG with that particular basin will result in most accurate predictions, however, for Ts prediction in ungauged basin, including all basins in training section will generate the best model, showing a more diverse training set. Furthermore, to decrease overfitting produced by attributes for PUB application, we could improve the accuracy of the model using input-selection ensemble method. We got median correlation higher than 0.90 for PUB after seasonality was removed which is still high. While many Ts prediction models showed better performance in summer, our model was on the opposite side. We found a strong relationship between general available daily meteorological variables and catchment attributes with the presented Ts model. However, our results indicate that combining physics-based criteria to the model can improve the prediction of temperature in river networks.

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How to cite: Rahmani, F., Lawson, K., Oliver, S., Appling, A., and Shen, C.: Deep Learning Stream Temperature Model: Recommendations for Modeling Gauged and Ungauged Basins, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13960, 2021.

EGU21-14087 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Operational Daily Streamflow Forecasts by coupling Variational Ensemble Forecasting and Machine Learning (VEF-ML) approaches

Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda, Juan B. Valdés, Sungwook Wi, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Roy Tirthankar, Eleonora M.C. Demaria, and Matej Durcik

The operational implementation of a Hydrologic Forecasting System (HFS) is limited in many catchments of the world by the lack of historical in-situ hydrologic data, i.e., long temporal records of rainfall or streamflow. By combining high-resolution Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs), or Regional Climatological Models (RCMs), with Hydrologic Models, baselines can be established for the quantification and reduction of total hydrologic uncertainty in ungauged basins. We have studied how Variational Ensemble Forecasting (VEF) can be combined with Machine Learning (ML) techniques to improve a hydrologic system representation – i.e., raw data processing, model training, model evaluation, model selection, forecasts post-processing, etc. The VEF-ML method is applied and assessed with three general Hydrologic Processing Hypotheses (HPH): (1) Hydrologic Pre-processing (HPR), (2) Hydrologic Processing (HP), and (3) Hydrologic Post-processing (HPP). The operational implementation of VEF-ML was evaluated in the Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) and its sub-basins, by using multiple precipitation products, multiple hydrologic models, and multiple optimal parameter sets. This extended VEF configuration and its coupling with ML techniques (VEF-ML) allows increasing the number of hydrologic ensembles available for the generation of operational streamflow forecasts products. The performance of VEF-ML is evaluated by comparing two hydrologic learning strategies (HLS) i.e. inference- and pattern-based approaches, which are used to improve hydrologic post-processing hypotheses (i.e. reduce total hydrologic uncertainty) in the poorly gauged UZRB.

How to cite: Valdés-Pineda, R., Valdés, J. B., Wi, S., Serrat-Capdevila, A., Tirthankar, R., Demaria, E. M. C., and Durcik, M.: Operational Daily Streamflow Forecasts by coupling Variational Ensemble Forecasting and Machine Learning (VEF-ML) approaches, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14087, 2021.

EGU21-14311 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Assessment of Suitability of Global Reanalysis for Hydrological Applications by Coupling Performance Statistics and Sensitivity Analysis in Kenya

Maureen Wanzala, Andrea Ficchi, Hannah Cloke, and Elizabeth Stephens

Information about monitoring of hydrological extremes, agricultural yields and irrigation may be informed by early warning, forecasts and flood management advice through appropriate modelling skills. However hydrological modelling is a challenging task in poorly gauged catchments, especially in developing countries like Kenya. Open access global precipitation and temperature reanalysis datasets with different spatial and temporal resolutions provide alternative sources in data-scarce regions but, individual reanalysis precipitation datasets have significant uncertainties. Inspired by data scarcity issues, significant spatial and temporal gaps in gauge observations, and poor performance of individual reanalysis in hydrological models, this study assess the performance of five new-era reanalysis datasets (ERA5, ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis Project(JRA55)) to simulate daily streamflow using the GR4J model across the 20 catchments in Kenya. Deviating from the modelling normality of calculating the model performance statistics for the calibration and validation periods to investigate whether a model serves as satisfactory representations of the natural hydrologic phenomenon, we couple with sensitivity analysis (SA) to unveil model structural uncertainty and suitability when forced with the different reanalysis products. In this study we use the reanalysis precipitation, maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures against the observations from the Climate Hazards group Precipitation (CHIRPS) for 1981–2016 to calculate performance statistics, streamflow simulations and sensitivity analysis. In addition, we develop model suitability index (MSI) by coupling the performance statistics with the sensitivity results across the different reanalysis products for our study catchments. Our results show that ERA5 performs better than other reanalysis products in terms of performance statistics and streamflow simulations at catchments scale. MSI results were suitable with ERA5 and lower in JRA55 across most of the Kenyan catchments, with 0.8 and 0.4 MSI respectively. MSI developed in this study is a quantitative measure that can be used for the comparison of reanalysis products for different catchments, thus useful for application to modelling to assess the suitability of both the modelling tools and catchment response to alternative forcings for early warning and inform early action.

How to cite: Wanzala, M., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H., and Stephens, E.: Assessment of Suitability of Global Reanalysis for Hydrological Applications by Coupling Performance Statistics and Sensitivity Analysis in Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14311, 2021.

EGU21-15111 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

A web based demonstration platform for flood warning in small catchments using ensemble hydrological forecasting

Jens Grundmann, Achim Six, and Andy Philipp

Reliable warnings and forecasts of extreme precipitation and resulting floods are an important prerequisite for disaster response. Especially for small catchments, warning and forecasting systems are challenging due to the short response time of the catchments and the uncertainties of the meteorological forecasts. Thus, ensemble forecasts of precipitation are an option to portray these inherent uncertainties. By this contribution, we present our operational web-based demonstration platform for ensemble hydrological forecasting in small catchments of Saxony, Germany. We use the ICON/COSMO-D2-EPS product of the German Weather Service, which provides an ensemble of 20 members each three hours, for lead times up to 27 hours. Each member is evaluated regarding specific extreme precipitation thresholds for predefined hydrological warning regions. If these thresholds are exceeded in a specific region, rainfall-runoff models for the associated catchments are started to propagate the meteorological uncertainty into the resulting runoff, followed by statistical post processing and visualization. Different options for the visualization of the uncertainty information were discussed and evaluated by a series of (virtual) workshops with locally responsible civil protection forces and water authorities. This leads to the current design of the web-based demonstration platform in an iterative process, which is still ongoing. The web-based demonstration platform is established for three pilot regions with different hydrological settings in Saxony, Germany. Besides layout and technical issues, first experiences with the demonstration platform are presented as well as first results regarding forecast performance in the small pilot regions.

How to cite: Grundmann, J., Six, A., and Philipp, A.: A web based demonstration platform for flood warning in small catchments using ensemble hydrological forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15111, 2021.

EGU21-15745 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Probabilistic Streamflow forecast for Narmada River Basin

Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a widely used method in forecasting streamflow, particularly for extremely low or high flows. However, the incorporation of reservoir operations in using ensemble streamflow prediction has not been investigated till yet. We calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for daily streamflow for Narmada river basin at four stations (Sandia, Handia, Mandleshwar and Garudeshwar) considering the effect of four reservoirs (Bargi, Tawa, Indira Sagar and Sardar Sarovar). The model is well-calibrated for the selected river basin (R2>0.55) at all locations. Further, routing of streamflow is done considering the reservoir storage dynamics and operating rules. Input data for ensemble prediction is taken from all 16 members of the Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and implemented by India Meteorological Department (IMD). Post-processing of the results gave us probabilities of uncertainties associated with streamflow prediction using ERFS members. This study provides key information in predictions of streamflow by incorporating the reservoirs based on the ERFS ensemble members, which can be used to effectively mitigate life and property losses associated with extreme flows in rivers.

How to cite: Vegad, U. and Mishra, V.: Probabilistic Streamflow forecast for Narmada River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15745, 2021.

EGU21-16303 | vPICO presentations | HS4.3

Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting

Ervin Zsoter, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth Stephens, and Hannah Cloke

Global flood forecasting systems rely on definition of flood thresholds for identifying upcoming flood events. Existing methods for flood threshold definition can often be based on reanalysis datasets and single thresholds, used for all forecast lead times, but this leads to inconsistencies between how the extreme flood events are represented in the flood thresholds and the ensemble forecasts.

This paper explores the potential benefits of using river flow ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds that can deliver improved reliability and skill. Using the Copernicus Emergency Management Service’s Global Flood Awareness System, the impact of the dataset and the method used to sample the annual maxima to define flood thresholds, are analysed in terms of threshold magnitude, forecast reliability and skill for different flood severity levels and lead times.

It was found that the variability of the threshold magnitudes, when estimated from the different annual maxima samples, can be extremely large, as can the subsequent impact on forecast skill. It was also found that reanalysis-based thresholds should only be used for the first few days, after which ensemble-reforecast-based thresholds, that vary with forecast lead time and can account for the forecast bias trends, provide more reliable and skilful flood forecasts.

 

 

How to cite: Zsoter, E., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E., and Cloke, H.: Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16303, 2021.

HS4.4 – Operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards: challenges and innovations

EGU21-3011 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4 | Highlight

Deployment automation of hydrological forecasting systems on a global scale.

Arianna Onate-Paladines, Bart van Osnabrugge, Jan Verkade, and Albrecht Weerts

Hydrological forecasting systems represent an important decision-making tool for water and risk management. In this context, there is increasing development and implementation of such systems worldwide, which are commonly tailor-made: designed and configured according to the information and hydrological models available for a specific location and/or extent to answer to precise needs. Therefore, the concepts of setup automation and replicability of configuration of such systems are often overlooked, especially when they follow a model-centric approach.

However, in a global forecasting context such as the one adopted by Deltares’ GLOFFIS (den Toom et al. 2020), the automation of hydrological forecasting systems’ set up becomes an essential part for the development, as it enables the fast forward and constant addition of local specialized models where available in the system on a global extent, as well as by using local regional weather forecasts, reanalysis models or satellite data as forcing to produce estimates of various hydrological parameters, instead of focusing on a single model or NWP source.

In that sense, a prototype of a configuration production system for GLOFFIS was developed, which comprises two main components: (1) an external relational database holding the information regarding the set of hydrological models to be incorporated and weather data products used and, (2) a set of python scripts, that query the database and generate the configuration XML files needed for the system (as GLOFFIS is based on Delft-FEWS) to accomplish an automated deployment.

This new approach for system’s configuration boosts the potential related to system maintenance, expansion, and replicability, which could be beneficial not only when developing large hydrological forecasting systems, but also for local systems developed using Delft-FEWS, as well as to encourage the distribution of forecasting systems worldwide.

 

References:

den Toom, M., Verkade, J., Weerts, A., and Schotmeijer, G.-J.: Development of the Deltares global fluvial flood forecast system, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-22344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22344, 2020.

How to cite: Onate-Paladines, A., van Osnabrugge, B., Verkade, J., and Weerts, A.: Deployment automation of hydrological forecasting systems on a global scale., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3011, 2021.

EGU21-520 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Application of the "genRE" approach to spatial interpolation of precipitation gauge data for the Suir River Basin

Georgios Boumis, Bart van Osnabrugge, and Jan Verkade

Operational near real-time flood forecasting relies heavily on adequate spatial interpolation of precipitation forcing which bears a huge impact on the accuracy of hydrologic forecasts. In this study, the generalized REGNIE (genRE) interpolation technique is examined. The genRE approach was shown to enhance the traditional Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method with information from existing observed climatological precipitation data sets (Van Osnabrugge, 2017). The successful application of the genRE method with a re-analysis precipitation data set, expands the applicability of the method as detailed re-analysis data sets become more prevalent while high density observation networks remain scarce.

Here, the approach is extended to use climatological precipitation data from the Met Éireann’s Re-Analysis (MÉRA). Investigations are carried out using hourly precipitation accumulations for two major flood events induced by Atlantic storms in the Suir River Basin, Ireland. Alongside genRE, the following techniques are comparatively explored: Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Regression Kriging (RK). Cross-validation is applied in order to compare the different interpolation methods, while spatial maps and correlation coefficients are utilized for assessing the skill of the interpolators to emulate the climatology of MÉRA. In the process, a preliminary intercomparison between the observed precipitation and MÉRA precipitation for the two events is also made.

In a statistical sense, cross-validation results verify that genRE performs slightly better than all three interpolation techniques for both events studied. Overall, OK is found to be the most inadequate approach, specifically in terms of preserving the original variance in observed precipitation. MÉRA manages to reproduce the temporal variations of observations in a good manner for both events, whereas it displays less skill when considering spatial variations especially where topography has a major influence. Finally, genRE outperforms all other interpolators in mimicking the climatological conditions of MÉRA for both events.

 

Van Osnabrugge, B., Weerts, A.H. and Uijlenhoet, R., 2017. genRE: A method to extend gridded precipitation climatology data sets in near real-time for hydrological forecasting purposes. Water Resources Research, 53(11), pp.9284-9303.

How to cite: Boumis, G., van Osnabrugge, B., and Verkade, J.: Application of the "genRE" approach to spatial interpolation of precipitation gauge data for the Suir River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-520, 2021.

EGU21-8894 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

The innovation of the FloodHub system for a reliable flood early warning and crisis management

Alexia Tsouni, Haris Kontoes, Themistocles Herekakis, Stavroula Sigourou, and Theodora Perrou

Flood has become the most frequent and deadliest type of disaster by far, responsible for the 43.5% of deaths in 2019. What is more, the number of flood events has extremely increased during the last decade (2000-2019), compared to the previous one (1980-1999) (CRED 2020). Therefore, policy and decision makers, more than ever, need efficient flood monitoring tools in order to facilitate their work towards increasing disaster resilience, especially in the urban and peri-urban areas, where most of the population and critical infrastructure are located. For this purpose, the FloodHub system has been developed by the Center of Earth Observation and Satellite Remote Sensing BEYOND, at the National Observatory of Athens, in the framework of the EuroGEO Disaster Resilience Action Group, supported by on-going actions (SMURBS / ERA-PLANET and Excelsior H2020 projects and the sponsor Hellenic Petroleum S.A.). The innovation of the system lies in the integration of different data sources, so as to deliver a reliable flood early warning system, and an operational awareness picture of the crisis every 5’ to the relevant authorities, namely on three levels: municipality, region, and national civil protection. FloodHub allows the near-real-time ingestion and assimilation of hydrometeorological measurements from in-situ telemetric stations, Sentinels data, and crowdsourced data, in a multi-source data fusion concept, using sophisticated hydrologic and hydraulic modelling and statistical regression techniques. It offers increased reliability through a continuous validation and optimization of results, automation in assimilating flood modeling in real time, computational efficiency, openness, flexibility, scalability, transferability, and the speed to meet rapid awareness during the crisis. Therefore, FloodHub is a useful tool in the hands of the relevant authorities and key stakeholders, contributing to an effective flood risk and crisis management. This is in line with the requirements for the implementation of the EU Floods Directive 2007/60/EC, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the UN SDGs, as well as the GEO’s Societal Benefit Areas.

How to cite: Tsouni, A., Kontoes, H., Herekakis, T., Sigourou, S., and Perrou, T.: The innovation of the FloodHub system for a reliable flood early warning and crisis management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8894, 2021.

The Berkel catchment in the east of the Netherlands and western Germany is an area with a long history of river flooding. Flooding in the area is caused by a combination of fast responding hydrological characteristics in the upper catchment and impermeable glacial till in the shallow sub-surface. In the past, flood mitigation in the Berkel catchment involved straightening river channels, minimising vegetation growth in the watercourse and an extensive weir network to control water flow. The changing climate and an integral approach to water management demand a modern, robust approach to mitigating flood damage in the Berkel catchment. As a result, an operational flood forecasting system (Delft-FEWS) which utilises recently developed hydrologic rainfall-runoff models and state of the art data assimilation (DA) methods has been developed. This system generates 7-day discharge forecasts at hourly intervals using meteorologic forecast and local discharge observations.

The lowland rainfall-runoff model, WALRUS (Brauer et al., 2014) is implemented to generate discharge forecasts. The WALRUS model set-up has been designed and calibrated in a semi-distributed layout to ensure the spatial and temporal elements of discharge peaks are captured. Importantly, this flood forecasting system has adopted recent advancements in DA to strengthen the accuracy of flood forecasts. Specifically, the DA method used in this system follows the work by Sun et al. (2020). The DA allows the model to be updated using field observations at 5 locations in the catchment, available in near real-time. Reforecasting illustrates the advantages of using rainfall-runoff models that capture the specific hydrologic characteristics of a catchment as well as the benefit of using advanced DA methods in flood forecasting.

 

Reference

Brauer, C. C., Teuling, A. J., Torfs, P. J. J. F., & Uijlenhoet, R. (2014). The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall–runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific model development, 7(5).

Sun, Y., Bao, W., Valk, K., Brauer, C. C., Sumihar, J., & Weerts, A. H. (2020). Improving forecast skill of lowland hydrological models using ensemble Kalman filter and unscented Kalman filter. Water Resources Research, 56(8), e2020WR027468.

How to cite: Burke, E.: Applying ensemble Kalman Filtering to improve operational flood forecasting for the Berkel catchment (Eastern Netherlands), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10549, 2021.

EGU21-9786 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

The Chennai flood (India): preliminary results using CETEMPS Hydrological Model (CHyM) stress index

Adhithiyan Neduncheran, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Marco Verdecchia, and Valentina Colaiuda

An extreme weather event hit the coastal city of Chennai, India, in November-December 2015 causing severe damage to infrastructure worth billions of dollars, people’s lives and their livelihood. Nearby districts to Chennai, such as Cuddalore, Kancheepuram and Tiruvallur were also affected by rainfall over 300mm during the first week of December. This was caused by the unusual wind surges in the troposphere providing favorable environmental conditions for the extensive rainfall and the formation of a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal on 30 November 2015, which was blocked by Eastern Ghats that inhibited the movement of the synoptic system. Electricity and telecommunication lines were suspended and some hospitals were shut down for a few days. It brought the whole city into a state of emergency and National Disaster Rescue Force were deployed in an effort to take care of the evacuation of people.

In this work, we present the estimation of the hydrological stress caused by the extreme rainfall event in Chennai and the nearby river basins during the course of this northeastern monsoon event in India. The hydrological stress is given through the application of Best Discharge based Drainage (BDD)  Index, calculated by the CETEMPS Hydrological Model (CHyM). Hydrological simulation is carried out by forcing the model with the 3-hourly NASA IMERG 0.1x0.1 grid precipitation dataset. Preliminary results show a spatial coherence between the hydrological stress detected by the index and the most impacted river segments, due to heavy precipitation. The application of hydrological stress indices is helpful for forecasting fluvial floods in the river network with minimum calibration requirements, providing a useful tool for warning the respective authorities for minimal losses due to natural calamities.

How to cite: Neduncheran, A., Lombardi, A., Tomassetti, B., Verdecchia, M., and Colaiuda, V.: The Chennai flood (India): preliminary results using CETEMPS Hydrological Model (CHyM) stress index, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9786, 2021.

EGU21-16545 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Near Real-Time Flood Impact Analysis on Road Networks

Martijn Kwant, Frederique de Groen, Margreet van Marle, Arjen Haag, and Herman Haaksma

Traditional flood risk studies often focus on direct economic impact, such as property damage or agricultural loss. However, the impact of floods is not limited to these direct damages. In fact societal costs and/or cascading effects are often much higher than the direct impact of floods. Cascading effects, such as access to healthcare and infrastructure accessibility are vital components for efficient emergency response management. This requires methodologies to quickly analyze the impact of large-scale floods on infrastructure networks.

 

In this case study, the use of satellite-based flood maps are examined in combination with network criticality in the Mandalay region in central Myanmar. This region was severely affected by flooding after heavy monsoon rains in 2019. Many regions in the world are affected by this type of floods every year, resulting in large scale evacuations and limited access to health care. During these type of events, the transportation network is a crucial part for emergency response, as it is used for the delivery of goods, evacuation and deployment of emergency hospitals.

 

The core of this study is a methodology to assess near real-time flood extents based on Sentinel-1 satellite imagery and the impact on network criticality. These tools were used to analyze the redundancy of the infrastructure network and quantify cascading impacts of flood hazards such as road accessibility and access to medical services. The methodology shows potential for operational use by linking with flood early warning systems (e.g. Delft-FEWS) enabling impact-based forecasting.

How to cite: Kwant, M., de Groen, F., van Marle, M., Haag, A., and Haaksma, H.: Near Real-Time Flood Impact Analysis on Road Networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16545, 2021.

EGU21-16546 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Using open source & low cost rain gauges to support debris flow real-time monitoring in Lima, Peru

Miguel Arestegui, Miluska Ordoñez, Abel Cisneros, Giorgio Madueño, Cinthia Almeida, Vannia Aliaga, Nelson Quispe, Carlos Millán, Waldo Lavado, Samuel Huaman, and Jeremy Phillips

Debris flow, locally known as huaycos, impact the east part of the metropolitan city of Lima, capital of Peru. However, after many extreme events such as the one related to the 2017 “Coastal Niño” or the one in 1987, there is a lack of historical data and sufficiently accurate monitoring systems.

 

The fact that this area is densely populated presents obvious challenges, from social and physical perspectives, but also some opportunities. We present our experience using open source & low cost rain gauges on previously unmonitored microwatershed, as part of a broader watershed-level monitoring system enhancement by SENAMHI (National Meteorological and Hydrological Service). We also present our experience on linking monitoring systems, debris flow modelling and community based risk management towards developing operational EWS.

How to cite: Arestegui, M., Ordoñez, M., Cisneros, A., Madueño, G., Almeida, C., Aliaga, V., Quispe, N., Millán, C., Lavado, W., Huaman, S., and Phillips, J.: Using open source & low cost rain gauges to support debris flow real-time monitoring in Lima, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16546, 2021.

EGU21-16397 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

German Near-Real Time Ensemble Hydroclimate Forecasting System

Husain Najafi, Stephan Thober, Oldrich Rakovec, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, and Luis Samaniego-Eguiguren

Helmholtz Centres are developing a research infrastructure in Germany to investigate the interactions of short-term events and long-term trends across Earth compartments under the Modular Observation Solutions for Earth System initiate (MOSES- https://www.ufz.de/moses/). A near-real time hydroclimate forecasting system at sub-seasonal to seasonal time range (HS2S) is developed for MOSES to provide tailored information for early warning of extreme events. 

Here, we introduce two components of the HS2S which benefits from operational forecasts provided by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The first component is weekly averaged forecasts of two atmospheric variables (total precipitation and maximum air temperature) which are bias corrected using a trend-preserving approach. The second component is German hydrological forecasting system. We use the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM- https://www.ufz.de/mhm) for generating hydrological initial conditions and ensemble forecasting. The same approach by German Drought Monitor (www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) is applied to interpolate near-real time in-situ observations from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) into 1-km grids. Then 51 real-time atmospheric daily ensemble forecasts from ECMWF ensemble extended product are bias corrected to generate of soil moisture and streamflow forecasts up to 30-day in advance. By post-processing mHM ensemble forecasts, an overview of drought conditions for the next 30-days horizon is disseminated online over Germany (https://www.ufz.de/moses/index.php?en=47304). Hydroclimate forecast are updated operationally twice a week to support MOSES event-driven campaigns for flood, drought and heat waves and to understand the predictability and skill of near-real time hydroclimate forecasts in Central Europe based on the state-of-the-art models and tools.  

How to cite: Najafi, H., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Shrestha, P. K., and Samaniego-Eguiguren, L.: German Near-Real Time Ensemble Hydroclimate Forecasting System, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16397, 2021.

During the summer of 2020, five bathing sites in Ireland were closed for the full season because of bad water quality, and 12 more received warnings and closed temporarily. Wastewater and sewage discharges, and Stormwater Overflows (SWOs) were the main causes. Although SWOs are not regarded as a management priority, they contributed to almost every bathing site’s closure, sharpening other existing issues. In this study, the precipitation in Ireland was analysed to inform a national stakeholder forum (An Fóram Uisce/The Water Forum), which provides guidance on water management to the national government, and the national water utility on the rainfall-driven SWOs issues. A correlation analysis of the observations of the closest meteorological stations of each bathing site is presented, showing that there are significant variances across the country, and each area (bathing site) must be examined separately. The Greater Dublin Area (GDA)’s precipitation was then further analysed because eight bathing sites in the GDA are facing SWO problems. Daily, monthly, and annual timeseries (10 years) were studied for peaks, trends, and seasonality. A daily forecast was performed for 1-year, using five techniques, starting from the simplest to the more complex: Seasonal naïve, Seasonal ARIMA, Holt-Winters Seasonal Exponential Smoothing, Non-seasonal ARIMA using seasonality as an exogenous covariate, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filtering. The peculiarities of the observed GDA’s precipitation timeseries are further highlighted through monthly, seasonal, and annual analyses. The trends showed that more extreme events (higher peaks) occurred over the last 30-20 years, thus, a brief extreme analysis was carried out using 120-year daily precipitation data. The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was fitted to the historic precipitation using the L-moments method, and was compared to other theoretical distributions, commenting on their goodness of fit. Additionally, by comparing the historic data of temperature and rainfall from all the stations, with the respective reported projections of the future climate change scenarios, all stations we found to have already faced greater ranges than the predicted (e.g. the GDA has already experienced 45% higher temperature than forecast by the worst-case climate change predictions). Overall, the analysis indicates that water quality deterioration from SWOs caused by heavy rainfall events is forecast to become more frequent in the future. Consequently, managing authorities need to pay more attention to SWOs, instead of continuing to consider them as an occasional problem impacting water quality. This is the first study in the country approaching the issue of bathing water quality from the perspective of precipitation analysis. Very few similar rainfall analyses have been carried out in Ireland, thus this work has also a significant added value to the Irish climate literature.

How to cite: Alamanos, A., Rolston, A., and Linnane, S.: Irish bathing sites closures and Stormwater Overflows: Precipitation forecasts, extremes analysis, and comparison with climate change projections, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5350, 2021.

EGU21-2244 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Improving Sub-Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts in Switzerland: An Exploratory Study of Post-Processing Techniques by Using Machine Learning and Weather Regime Diagnostics

Yuan-Yuan (Annie) Chang, Konrad Bogner, Massimiliano Zappa, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, and Christian M. Grams

Across the globe, there has been an increasing interest in improving the predictability of weekly to monthly (sub-seasonal) hydro-meteorological forecasts as they play a valuable role in medium- to long-term planning in many sectors such as agriculture, navigation, hydro-power production, and hazard warnings. A Precipitation-Runoff-Evapotranspiration HRU model (PREVAH) has been previously set up with raw metrological forcing of 51 ensemble members and 32 days lead time taken from the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) extended-range forecast. The PREVAH model is used to generate hydrological forecasts for the study area, which consists of 300 catchments covering approximately the entire area of Switzerland. The primary goal of this study is to improve the quality of the categorical forecast of weekly mean total discharge in a catchment laying in the lower, normal, or upper tercile of the climatological distribution at a monthly horizon. Therefore, we explore the approach to post-process PREVAH outputs using machine learning algorithm Gaussian process. Weather regime (WR) data, based on 500 hPa geopotential height in the Atlantic-European region are used as an added feature to further enhance the post-processing performance.

By comparing the overall accuracy and the ranked probability skill score of the post-processed forecasts with the ones of raw forecasts we show that the proposed post-processing techniques are able to improve the forecast skill. The degree of improvement varies by catchment, lead time and variable. The benefit of the added WR data is not consistent across the study area but most promising in high altitude catchments with steep slopes. Among the seven types of WRs, the majority of the corrections are observed when either a European blocking or a Scandinavian blocking is forecasted as the dominant weather regime. By applying a “best practice” to each individual catchment, that is the processing technique with the highest accuracy among the different proposed techniques, a median accuracy of 0.65 (improved from a value of 0.53 with no processing technique) can be achieved at 4-week lead time. Due to the small data size, the conclusions should be considered preliminary, but this study highlights the potential of improving the skill of sub-seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts utilizing weather regime data and machine learning in a real-time deployable setup.

How to cite: Chang, Y.-Y. (., Bogner, K., Zappa, M., Domeisen, D. I. V., and Grams, C. M.: Improving Sub-Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts in Switzerland: An Exploratory Study of Post-Processing Techniques by Using Machine Learning and Weather Regime Diagnostics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2244, 2021.

EGU21-15026 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Seasonal hydrological forecasts for Australia – applications in agriculture and water management

Elisabeth Vogel, Julien Lerat, Robert Pipunic, Andrew J. Frost, Morwenna Griffiths, and Debra Hudson

Hydrological extremes, including droughts or floods, can have devastating effects on many aspects of human societies and the natural environment (IPCC, 2012). Seasonal ensemble forecasts of hydrological indicators could help adapt to and increase the resilience towards hydroclimatic variability and extremes by providing the opportunity to optimise decisions in advance and prepare for potentially harmful events. The ability to forecast hydrological variables several months ahead would be beneficial for many sectors, including agriculture, water management, bushfire risk assessments, emergency services and infrastructure.

The Bureau of Meteorology has developed a high-resolution national seasonal ensemble forecasting system for soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff across Australia, using a gridded water balance model (AWRA-L) forced with downscaled and calibrated seasonal climate forecasts from the Bureau’s ACCESS-S1 system.

In this presentation, we evaluate the hydrological forecasts relative to a historical reference simulation forced with observed climate inputs using hindcasts for the period 1990-2012. The forecasts were evaluated in terms of deterministic skill using the ensemble mean as well as probabilistically, assessing the accuracy and reliability of the forecast ensemble, with a specific focus on forecasts of hydrological extremes. Additionally, we assess the performance of the hindcast for selected use cases, particularly focusing on agriculture and water management, focusing on the Australian wheatbelt and major urban and rural water supply catchments.

Overall, we conclude that the forecasting system shows sufficient skill for a wide range of applications and regions. We outline limitations of the presented system and highlight potential future research directions.

How to cite: Vogel, E., Lerat, J., Pipunic, R., Frost, A. J., Griffiths, M., and Hudson, D.: Seasonal hydrological forecasts for Australia – applications in agriculture and water management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15026, 2021.

EGU21-2856 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Low-flow forecasting in France: update on the latest developments of the PREMHYCE operational forecast platform

François Bourgin, François Tilmant, Anne-Lise Véron, François Besson, Didier François, Matthieu Le Lay, Pierre Nicolle, Charles Perrin, Fabienne Rousset, Dominique Thiéry, Jean-Marie Willemet, Claire Magand, and Mathilde Morel

Low-flow forecasting can help to improve water management at places where a number of uses can be affected by diminishing water supply from rivers. Several French institutes (INRAE, BRGM, EDF, Lorraine University and Météo-France) have been collaborating to set up an operational platform, called PREMHYCE, for low-flow forecasting at the national scale, in cooperation with operational services. PREMHYCE includes five hydrological models and low-flow forecasts can be issued up to 90 days ahead for more than 800 basins. Several input scenarios are considered: ECMWF 14-days ensemble forecasts, ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) using historical climatic data, and a no precipitation scenario. Outputs from the different hydrological models are combined into a multi-model approach to improve robustness of the forecasts. The tool provides text files and graphical representation of forecasted low-flows, as well as key low-flow indicators, such as the probabilities of being under low-flow thresholds provided by operational services. The presentation will show the main characteristics of this operational forecast platform, its latest developments and the results on the recent low-flow periods.

How to cite: Bourgin, F., Tilmant, F., Véron, A.-L., Besson, F., François, D., Le Lay, M., Nicolle, P., Perrin, C., Rousset, F., Thiéry, D., Willemet, J.-M., Magand, C., and Morel, M.: Low-flow forecasting in France: update on the latest developments of the PREMHYCE operational forecast platform, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2856, 2021.

EGU21-5471 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4 | Highlight

www.drought.ch – A 10-year span from technology readiness level 1 to 8

Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, Manuela I. Brunner, Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti, Florian Lustenberger, Christoph Spirig, Irmi Seidl, and Manfred Staehli

Up to 2003, a collective memory on severe drought-events in Switzerland has been pretty much inexistent. There has been no targeted research on hydrological drought and no early detection instrument was available for guiding decision makers. Research within the framework of the National Research Program 61 (www.nrp61.ch) “Sustainable Water Use” (2010-2013) provided the cornerstones for prototyping the early drought detection platform www.drought.ch. In June 2013, the platform was launched and provided useful information during two severe drought events in 2015 and 2018. At the same time, awareness about future increases in the frequency of such events has been confirmed by several studies considering future streamflow projections. Drought and water scarcity are now found on the list of the most threatening hazards for Switzerland. Several political initiatives call for increased efforts in the deployment of a national early warning system for critical droughts. This led to the proposition, that www.drought.ch should be integrated as the main tool for official national drought warnings in Switzerland.

This contribution summarizes the 10-year process of developing the drought warning system drought.ch from technology readiness level 1 (TRL 1, “basic principles observed”) to TRL 8 (“system complete and qualified”). TRL1 started in 2010 with a two-stage dialogue with stakeholders from different sectors including national administration, hydropower, forestry, agriculture, and river navigation. TRL 3 (“experimental proof of concept”) began in 2013. Over the years, the initial focus on drought-specific monitoring of precipitation, streamflow, lake levels, groundwater levels, soil moisture deficit, snow resources, and dryness in forests and stream temperatures has been expanded to advanced countrywide sub-seasonal ensemble prediction of drought-parameters. The last major upgrade was the deployment of monthly forecasts (issued twice a week) during the extreme summer drought in 2018. Analyses of public drought perception after the 2018 event demonstrated that TRL 8 has been achieved, i.e. that the drought platform is useful.

 

How to cite: Zappa, M., Bernhard, L., Brunner, M. I., Bogner, K., Liechti, K., Lustenberger, F., Spirig, C., Seidl, I., and Staehli, M.: www.drought.ch – A 10-year span from technology readiness level 1 to 8, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5471, 2021.

EGU21-15647 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4 | Highlight

Integration of operational Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and COVID-19 data for the humanitarian community

Chiara Proietti, Alessandro Annunziato, Pamela Probst, Stefano Paris, and Thomas Peter

To improve preparedness and response in case of large-scale disasters, the international humanitarian community needs to understand the anticipated impact of an event as soon as possible in order to take informed operational decisions. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), DG ECHO, and the United Nations’ OCHA and UNOSAT launched the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (www.GDACS.org) in 2002-03 as cooperation platform to provide early disaster warning and coordination services to humanitarian actors. After more than 15 years, GDACS has around 30k registered users among humanitarian organisations at global level.

At the beginning, one of GDACS’s main tasks was the dissemination of automatic alerts for earthquakes, tsunamis and tropical cyclones; today, the system has been augmented to include also floods, droughts and volcanoes, and it will soon include forest fires.  Alerts are sent to the international humanitarian community to ensure timely warning in severe events that are expected to require international assistance. Alert levels are determined by automated algorithms without, or with very limited, human intervention, using automatic real-time data-feeds from various scientific institutes or the JRC’s own systems.

From 2020, because of the potential impact of the COVID-19 emergency on international preparedness and response activities, the COVID-19 situation in affected countries is now also monitored by the system, providing real time information updates on the website. This new feature allows to consider in the planning of the emergency response, the severity of the outbreak in the affected countries.

This contribution presents the challenges and outcomes of combining science-based information from different independent systems into a single Multi-Hazard Early Warning System and introduces new functionalities that were recently developed to address the new challenges related to the COVID-19 emergency.

How to cite: Proietti, C., Annunziato, A., Probst, P., Paris, S., and Peter, T.: Integration of operational Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and COVID-19 data for the humanitarian community, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15647, 2021.

EGU21-12695 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Sargassum Monitoring –  Sargassum Detection in the Tropical Atlantic for Operational and Seasonal Planning 

Marion Sutton, Jacques Stum, and Claire Dufau

Unprecedented massive landings of Sargassum are regularly registered since 2011 along the shorelines of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and West Africa. Algae arrive from the open sea as large rafts (tenths of km) after drifting over long distances in the Central Atlantic NERR, and accumulating in consolidation areas in the Brazil retroflexion current and probably the Gulf of Guinea. Washing-ashore has tremendous negative impacts on local populations, coastal marine ecosystems and the economy sector, especially tourism and fisheries that are severely affected.

CLS has been developing a Sargassum algae monitoring and operational forecasting service (SAMTool) based on optical satellite sensors technologies and ocean-surface drift modelling. This service intends to provide support on decision-making to governmental and non-governmental agencies involved in monitoring, evaluating, mitigating or tackling the recurrent Sargassum environmental issue: Meteorological Offices, Coast Guards, Navies, Port Authorities, Marine Park managers, scientists, NGOs, Touristic and Fisheries organisations, etc.

With the support of ESA, a pool of nearly 40 end-users from several Caribbean islands and neighboring countries: Mexico, Belize, Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire, French Antilles, Barbados, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Sint Maarten, Trinidad & Tobago, Antigua & Barbuda, were able to use the service from April 2019 to October 2020, and gave a general very positive feedback in terms of usefulness, operationality, and forecast quality of the  service.

In the frame of the H2020 e-shape project, CLS is testing the deployment of the service on a cloud infrastructure and exploring the DIAS capabilities to enhance the system and allow seasonal prediction. Further works are on-going to implement a new sargassum detection index algorithm to reduce false alarms and to explore the added-value of using SAR satellite data. The use of a cloud infrastructure in e-shape will allowed the computation of a reanalysis of sargassum detection at 300-m resolution  on Sentinel-3 data and will extent the computing capacity of the drift model to predict the Sargassum arrival months in advance.

The presentation will focus on the scientific and technical results of the seasonal approach developed in e-shape.

How to cite: Sutton, M., Stum, J., and Dufau, C.: Sargassum Monitoring –  Sargassum Detection in the Tropical Atlantic for Operational and Seasonal Planning , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12695, 2021.

EGU21-13213 | vPICO presentations | HS4.4

Investigation of volcanic emissions in Antikythera PANGEA station using near-real-time alerts

Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Eleni Marinou, Christos Spyrou, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Simona Scollo, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Theodore Karacostas, and Prodromos Zanis

In the last years, several Etna eruption events are documented, forming lava flows and explosive activity. The Pilot EO4D_ash – Earth observation data for detection, discrimination & distribution (4D) of volcanic ash of the e-shape project provides the PANhellenic GEophysical observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), in Greece with near-real-time alerts from Etna volcano eruptions. These alerts are used in the PANGEA station to monitor and reveal the presence of volcanic particles above the area the days following an eruption, also the station is supported by a volcanic particle monitoring and forecasting warning system. In this work, we investigate the volcano eruption between 30 May and 6 June 2019 which affected the southern parts of Greece and reaching the Antikythera station. Due to the prevailing meteorological conditions, volcanic particles and gases followed an easterly direction and were dispersed towards Greece. FLEXPART dispersion model simulations confirm the volcanic plume transport from Etna towards PANGEA, mixing also with co-existing desert dust particles. Model simulations are evaluated with PollyXT lidar measurements performed at PANGEA and satellite-based SO2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (TROPOMI/S5P). This is the first time that Etna volcanic products are monitored at the Antikythera station, in Greece with implications for the investigation of their role in the Mediterranean weather and climate.

Acknowledgments: We acknowledge the support by EU H2020 E-shape project (Grant Agreement n. 820852). Also, this research was supported by data and services obtained from the PANhellenic Geophysical Observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Greece, and by the project “PANhellenic infrastructure for Atmospheric Composition and climatE change” (MIS 5021516) which is implemented under the Action “Reinforcement of the Research and Innovation Infrastructure”, funded by the Operational Programme "Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation" (NSRF 2014-2020) and co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Regional Development Fund). NOA team acknowledges the support of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF).

How to cite: Kampouri, A., Amiridis, V., Solomos, S., Gialitaki, A., Marinou, E., Spyrou, C., Georgoulias, A. K., Akritidis, D., Papagiannopoulos, N., Mona, L., Scollo, S., Pytharoulis, I., Karacostas, T., and Zanis, P.: Investigation of volcanic emissions in Antikythera PANGEA station using near-real-time alerts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13213, 2021.

HS4.5 – Reducing the impacts of natural hazards through forecast-based action: from early warning to early action

EGU21-13115 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5 | Highlight

Forecast based Financing for Food Security : from early warning to early action in Eastern Africa

Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Marthe Wens, and Marc Van den Homberg

The project “Forecast based Financing for Food Security” (F4S) aims to provide a deeper understanding of how key drivers of food insecurity can be forecasted early enough to enable the trigger of humanitarian action in pilot areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. In combination with the knowledge being produced about early warning and forecasting, F4S also wants to inform early action (e.g. ex-ante cash transfers) that can reduce the risk of food insecurity. F4S has been achieving this goal through three main pillars:  (i) modelling, (ii) local knowledge and (iii) cost-benefits analysis.

This PICO presentation shares the lessons learnt and results of the F4S project. Moreover, it  hopes to trigger the discussion on how the scientific community together with local stakeholders and communities can co-produce knowledge that is relevant to local action, focussing on three result areas.

  • (i) The impact-based forecasting model to understand the key drivers of food insecurity in agricultural, agro-pastoral, and pastoral regions. Simple to more complex Machine Learning algorithms have been developed, applied and benchmarked. These algorithms were used to forecast, 6 to 1 months ahead, key indicators of food insecurity such as the shortage of calories and the transitions in IPC classes. Local knowledge was used to inform the selection of the predictors of the Machine Learning algorithm.
  • (ii) The results of a household survey and individual choice experiments among 600 household members of vulnerable communities. The survey collected local knowledge on early warning (food insecurity triggers) and early actions traditionally taken to lessen food insecurity. The novel choice experiment consisted of giving potential beneficiaries of ex-ante cash transfers the choice between different timings and frequencies of cash transfers for different drought and food security scenarios. The results provided a better understanding of people’s willingness to invest in risk reduction actions and individual preferences on key design elements of cash transfer mechanisms.
  • (iii) The evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of different cash transfer mechanisms that investigates how cash transfer programs can achieve a significant reduction in costs if cash is disbursed prior to the food insecurity occurrence.

This knowledge, as produced on the three areas above, is being currently used to improve the design of ex-ante cash programs. In addition to yielding significant cost savings, the project has found that cash transfer programs can be a more dignified solution when disbursed early enough. Cash transfer programs have the potential to increase the range of early action by beneficiaries that ultimately can reduce the risk of food insecurity and possibly malnutrion in vulnerable communities.

How to cite: Guimarães Nobre, G., Wens, M., and Van den Homberg, M.: Forecast based Financing for Food Security : from early warning to early action in Eastern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13115, 2021.

EGU21-11503 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Analysing the cost-effectiveness of early action for food security through forecasting shortages in maize calories; a case study for Ethiopia 

Amber Emeis, Gabriele Guimarães Nobre, Marc van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Vicky Boult

The Ethiopian agricultural system is predominantly formed by smallholder and rainfed farmers. Their local food systems are greatly reliant on seasonal climate variability. Often, droughts and food insecurity are interlinked and can negatively impact local communities. In addition to climate variability, a number of socio-economic factors such as multiple harvest failures, distance to markets and pre-existing inequalities are well known to impact people’s access to safe, sufficient and affordable food. Anticipatory action to avoid a situation of food security crisis often requires the understanding of how many people can be potentially affected by a shock and how much financing should be invested. 

This study aims to forecast shortages in maize calories, which is defined as the percentage of the population for which not sufficient maize calories are available. Forecast models were developed for agricultural and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Ethiopia in connection to the unimodal and bimodal rain seasons by using the Fast-and-Frugal Trees Algorithm. To forecast shortage events, five variables were used ranging from socio-economic to physical drivers: 1) soil moisture (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data and ground-based observations (TAMSAT)), 2) maize production from the previous season, 3) the Gini index, 4) the main livelihood mode and 5) the travel time to the closest market. The lead time of the model is increased using TAMSAT forecast data to create a wider window for action before harvesting. 

The skill of the model with increased lead-time in relation to the cost of the humanitarian intervention was analysed to examine the cost-effectiveness of forecast-based action. Therefore, the cost of acting early (through a scheme of cash transfer) has been compared to ex-post interventions. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the cash transfer, the prices of a basket of goods before and after harvesting are included in the model with the assumption that prices of staple crops increase when there is scarcity (food insecurity). With these results, the study will explore the practicality of implementing the anticipatory action by looking at the implications of model uncertainty (False Alarms, ‘acting in vain’). Likewise, the possible opportunities and challenges in regards to operationalizing the model will be deliberated. Accordingly, this study hopes to contribute to the use of early warning early action systems by humanitarian agencies in reducing the impacts of natural hazards. 

How to cite: Emeis, A., Guimarães Nobre, G., van den Homberg, M., Teklesadik, A., and Boult, V.: Analysing the cost-effectiveness of early action for food security through forecasting shortages in maize calories; a case study for Ethiopia , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11503, 2021.

EGU21-1442 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Maize yield forecast using earth observation data and machine learning for Sub-Saharan Africa

Donghoon Lee, Frank Davenport, Shraddhanand Shukla, Greg Husak, and Chris Funk

In Sub-Saharan Africa, forecasting of agricultural production is becoming increasingly important for the management of the agricultural supply chain, market prediction, and food aid. More importantly, agricultural forecasts can enhance the ability of governments and humanitarian organizations to respond better to food production shocks and price spikes caused by extreme droughts. Here, we use earth observation (EO) and machine learning (ML) techniques to develop 1-6 months ahead end-of-season maize yield forecast models for several regions in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that ML models present different aspects of forecast accuracy compared to baseline regression models. Specifically, we investigate 1) skillful EO predictors and their predictability in a given region and lead-time and 2) the benefits of using finer time resolution of EO data that can potentially capture temporal dynamics in early reproductive stages. Overall, this study provides the groundwork for an operational crop yield forecast and famine warning system. Actionable famine risk predictions can radically improve existing disaster management practices of aid organizations by providing advanced preparedness and response strategies.

How to cite: Lee, D., Davenport, F., Shukla, S., Husak, G., and Funk, C.: Maize yield forecast using earth observation data and machine learning for Sub-Saharan Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1442, 2021.

EGU21-10434 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Drought Forecasting, Thresholds and Triggers: Implementing Forecast-based Financing in Mozambique

Rogerio Bonifacio, Gabriela Guimaraes Nobre, and Daniela Cuellar

To support livelihoods who rely on agricultural activities against increasing climate and food insecurity risks, the World Food Programme is implementing Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for drought management in Mozambique. FbF is an approach in which humanitarian financing and anticipatory action are automatically made available based on a certain likelihood of a drought event.

To enable the implementation of FbF projects, the World Food Programme has developed and implemented probabilistic seasonal forecasts of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) covering Mozambique’s rainfall season (October-April). The system produces forecast of the probability of the SPI to be less than -1, a threshold that identifies significant drought events at time scales of 2 and 3 months. These are derived from ECMWF ensemble seasonal daily precipitation forecasts, available monthly and processed from August to February to forecast drought occurrence one to six months ahead of time in four Mozambican districts.

Operational usage of probabilistic SPI forecasts requires both the derivation of a trigger (a probability value above which drought is assumed to take place) and an assessment of forecast skill. The trigger is a probability value above which drought is assumed to take place and its exceedance leads to the implementation of anticipatory actions. Forecast skill determines if the forecast system for a specific SPI time frame is usable. Both forecast skill and triggers are derived jointly through a forecast verification analysis based on a comparison between historical time series of SPI forecasts (1993-2019)  and SPI values derived from CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates used as a reference precipitation data set.

The outcomes of this analysis are compiled into manageable tables of forecast analysis that were readily applied for decision-making process in four districts in Mozambique. In addition, a preliminary cost loss analysis for some of the Forecast-based Financing interventions against droughts and food insecurity demonstrated a potential to generate large socio-economic gains for both WFP and the beneficiaries of the anticipatory actions.

The goal of this abstract is to present WFP’s on-going and previous technical activities linked to the development of Forecast-based Financing projects for drought risk management to the broader scientific community. Whereas this system is being consolidated and still under review, next technical developments will comprise the better integration of hazard indicators with “impact levels” and risk metrics, adequate bias correction and benchmarking with other existing forecasting systems. Finally, WFP is  committed in producing evidences that can protect livelihoods and save lives through the great window of opportunity generated by actionable forecasts.

 

How to cite: Bonifacio, R., Guimaraes Nobre, G., and Cuellar, D.: Drought Forecasting, Thresholds and Triggers: Implementing Forecast-based Financing in Mozambique, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10434, 2021.

EGU21-15974 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Overcoming the complexity of drought by phasing drought triggers; a case study of Zimbabwe

Marijke Panis, Aklilu Teklesadik, Mark Powell, Richard Muchena, and David Muchatiza

Historically droughts are one of the natural hazards in Zimbabwe with a significant impact on community resilience and threaten the livelihood of already vulnerable people. Agricultural activities are the primary source of income, where the dominant rain-fed agriculture is exceptionally vulnerable to climate extremes, reducing the country's agricultural productivity. The Zimbabwe Red Cross targets crop losses as the drought impact to prioritize in the drought impact-based forecasting system.

The Impact-based Forecasting project in Zimbabwe aims to reduce the impact of drought (crop losses) to the community by implementing early actions within sufficient operational lead time. Drought is a slow-onset disaster, and its impact is felt and visible at different moments  the seasonal calendar. This drought impact can be categorized into primary- and secondary impacts. Primary drought impacts are directly linked to rainfall scarcity, such as reduced crop yield and water scarcity. Secondary drought impacts are directly connected to dry conditions, such as food insecurity and epidemics. These temporal differences of impacts ask for drought triggers at various moments in the calendar, leading to a more segmented approach. The segmented approach makes it possible to design the trigger in a way that the drought indicators best linked to the operational early action at that lead time. The first phase has the longest lead time in predicting the impact of a drought using a global climatological indicator (ENSO) first to identify the probability of an El Niño/La Niña year to develop into the next growing season. Secondly, the FEWSNET Food Security Seasonal Outlook can be used as a predictor of the impact of an upcoming drought and of the population exposed to an IPC-Class 3 level. The last phase exists of monitoring biophysical drought indicators over the growing season to predict accurately the effect of a drought with the shortest lead time. The aim of phasing the trigger methodology is to activate low-cost actions when the uncertainty of the impact of a drought is relatively high. By adding more seasonal information to the trigger model over time, the predictive uncertainty reduces.

As a result, the drought trigger methodology we designed can drive the discussion and be the evidence base on the selection of early actions to reduce drought impacts. Next steps in the development of the system are to calculate the forecast skill of the biophysical indicators such as standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) soil moisture? linked to the identified prioritized drought impacts and to select corresponding early actions.

How to cite: Panis, M., Teklesadik, A., Powell, M., Muchena, R., and Muchatiza, D.: Overcoming the complexity of drought by phasing drought triggers; a case study of Zimbabwe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15974, 2021.

EGU21-16187 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Warning and evacuation, case studies from Japan, Philippines and Dominica

Joanna Faure Walker and Rebekah Yore

In order to be effective, warning systems need to both reach those at risk and prompt appropriate action. We study the efficacy of early warning systems in prompting residents to take appropriate action ahead of severe hazards in island countries that experience regular disasters, namely following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan, Typhoon Yolanda in The Phillippines, and Hurricane Maria in Dominica. All these events were extreme in their impact and in addition had aspects which surprised residents such as the size of the tsunami, the strom surge and the late change in intensity which provided challenges with warning. We find that multiple forms of warning are needed in order for the whole population to be reached as no one form of warning reaches everyone. The timing of the warning is important for evacuation decisions including who stays and who evacuates. It is important that the whole cycle of a warning system is considered, and that it is viewed as a process, such that we consider the scientific, communications, social and infrastructure aspects of warning systems.

How to cite: Faure Walker, J. and Yore, R.: Warning and evacuation, case studies from Japan, Philippines and Dominica, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16187, 2021.

EGU21-15290 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Balancing permanent and forecast-based action to lessen wind-induced building damage in the Philippines.

Demi Vonk, Marc van den Homberg, Nanette Kingma, Dinand Alkema, Aklilu Teklesadik, Damien Riquet, and Maarten van Aalst

With a global paradigm shift from post-disaster response aid to anticipatory action, the question on how anticipatory action relates to long-term climate adaptation and often government-led actions towards permanent disaster prevention becomes more relevant. With rising disaster risk, a framework that decision-makers can use to select between preventive and preparedness risk reduction efforts would be most useful. A model originally developed to compare permanent interventions to forecast-based action for floods was applied to wind-induced building damage due to tropical cyclones, focusing on a case study from the Philippines. We made use of a typhoon forecasting model based on the ensemble forecast from EMCWF, and modeled the wind footprint to estimate the wind speed in the case study area. A threshold was defined, similar to how it is done in actual operations by the Philippine Red Cross. If the forecasted typhoon exceeds a pre-set threshold in terms of wind speed, action to strengthen light-weight wooden houses with a Shelter Strengthening Kit (SSK) is taken. SSKs temporarily make these houses more resistant to withstand extreme winds, thereby reducing the impacts. This short term action is compared to a scenario in which lightweight wooden houses are permanently upgraded. Results give actors in humanitarian response, anticipatory action as well as permanent disaster prevention insight into which variables affect this balance. and help policymakers to allocate their scarce budgets in a cost-effective way. The framework, although developed for the Philippines, can also be replicated in other cyclone-prone countries. 

How to cite: Vonk, D., van den Homberg, M., Kingma, N., Alkema, D., Teklesadik, A., Riquet, D., and van Aalst, M.: Balancing permanent and forecast-based action to lessen wind-induced building damage in the Philippines., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15290, 2021.

EGU21-16169 * | vPICO presentations | HS4.5 | Highlight

Flood forecast skill for Early Action: Results and Learnings from the development of the Early-Action Protocol for Floods in Uganda

Andrea Ficchì, Hannah Cloke, Linda Speight, Douglas Mulangwa, Irene Amuron, Emmanuel Ntale, and Liz Stephens

Global flood forecasting systems are helpful in complementing local resources and in-country data to support humanitarians and trigger early action before an impactful flood occurs. Freely available global flood forecast information from the European Commission’s Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS, a Copernicus EMS service) is being used by the Uganda Red Cross Society (URCS) alongside in-country knowledge to develop appropriate triggers for early actions for flood preparedness, within the Forecast-based Financing (FbF) initiative. To scale up the first FbF pilot to a national level, in 2020 URCS collaborated with several partners including the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC), the Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment, through the Directorate of Water Resources Management (DWRM), the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), the 510 Global team and the University of Reading, through the UK-supported project Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM). The new Early Action Protocol (EAP) for floods, submitted to the IFRC’s validation committee in September 2020, is now under review.

One of the aims of an EAP is to set the triggers for early action, based on forecast skill information, alongside providing a local risk analysis, and describing the early actions, operational procedures, and responsibilities. Working alongside our partners and practitioners in Uganda, we developed a methodology to tailor flood forecast skill analysis to EAP development, that could be potentially useful for humanitarians in other Countries and forecasters engaging with them. The key aim of the analysis is to identify skilful lead times and appropriate triggers for early action based on available operational forecasts, considering action parameters, such as an Action Lifetime of 30 days, and focusing on relevant flood thresholds and skill scores. We analysed the skill of probabilistic flood forecasts from the operational GloFAS (v2.1) system across Uganda against river flow observations and reanalysis data. One of the challenges was to combine operational needs with statistical robustness requirements, using relevant flood thresholds for action. Here we present the results from the analysis carried out for Uganda and the verification workflow, that we plan to make openly available to all practitioners and scientists working on the implementation of forecast-based actions.

How to cite: Ficchì, A., Cloke, H., Speight, L., Mulangwa, D., Amuron, I., Ntale, E., and Stephens, L.: Flood forecast skill for Early Action: Results and Learnings from the development of the Early-Action Protocol for Floods in Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16169, 2021.

EGU21-13746 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Assessment of GloFAS ensemble flood forecast for the Brahmaputra basin: skilful lead-times to predict monsoon floods for early action in Bangladesh

Sazzad Hossain, Hannah Cloke, Andrea Ficchì, Christel Prudhomme, Arifuzzaman Bhuyan, and Elisabeth Stephens

Flood is a frequent natural hazard in the Brahmaputra basin in Bangladesh during the South Asian summer monsoon between June to September. When will flooding start during monsoon and how long it will last are two important questions that forecasters need to answer. Predicting flood timing and duration with a sufficient lead-time is challenging for forecasters due to strong intraseasonal variation of floods within a monsoon.

The GloFAS forecasting system is run by ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service and provides operational extended-range ensemble flood forecast with 30 days lead-time for the major river basins in the world. In this study, we evaluated GloFAS reforecasts for the Brahmaputra basin in Bangladesh for the period 1997–2019 at different lead-times against observed stream gauge and ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis river discharge data. We used various probabilistic forecast verification metrics, such as Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Probability of Detection (POD), to study how forecast skill varies over different lead-times. We also assessed the skilful lead-times of the GloFAS forecast to predict flood timing and duration during the monsoon. These scores were calculated considering relevant flood threshold levels and action-based parameters, such as Action Lifetime, based on user needs in Bangladesh. The GloFAS forecast case study for the recent 2020 monsoon floods in the Brahmaputra basin shows that the onset of flood events was successfully predicted with a lead-time of 15 days. These forecasts were disseminated among the different stakeholders, including humanitarian agencies, flood and disaster management organisations, to inform forecast-based actions, such as evacuation of vulnerable people to safer places ahead of flood events. Our study demonstrates that GloFAS ability to predict monsoon floods in terms of timing and duration can improve national flood forecasting capabilities providing sufficient lead-time for early actions in Bangladesh. The study will help forecasters as well as users to understand forecast skill and associated uncertainty in probabilistic forecasts to predict flood events in Bangladesh.

 

 

 

How to cite: Hossain, S., Cloke, H., Ficchì, A., Prudhomme, C., Bhuyan, A., and Stephens, E.: Assessment of GloFAS ensemble flood forecast for the Brahmaputra basin: skilful lead-times to predict monsoon floods for early action in Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13746, 2021.

EGU21-521 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Optimizing forecast-based actions for extreme rainfall in Peru

Jonathan Lala, Juan Bazo, Vaibhav Anand, and Paul Block

Natural disaster management has recently seen a major innovation through the advent of standardized forecast-based action and financing protocols. Given a forecast with adequate skill and lead time, relief actions can be taken before, rather than after, a disaster, saving lives and property while also transferring some ex-post risk to ex-ante risk for the relief agency. Multi-stage actions, in which forecasts with longer leads allow for preparation while short-term forecasts trigger direct actions, may be particularly effective at reducing risk. Multi-stage protocols, however, have not been explicitly optimized, either through trigger mechanisms or forecast tailoring. This study considers a multi-stage early action protocol developed by the Peruvian Red Cross for El Niño-induced extreme rainfall in coastal Peru. A sensitivity analysis of trigger thresholds, forecast methods, and levels of risk aversion is conducted to recommend optimal actions. Results demonstrate the relative importance of benefit-cost ratios at different lead times; forecast technology and risk aversion play a lesser but still valuable role. Moreover, the optimization framework can be utilized without post-disaster monitoring and evaluation, enabling the proliferation of effective plans in other disaster-prone regions.

How to cite: Lala, J., Bazo, J., Anand, V., and Block, P.: Optimizing forecast-based actions for extreme rainfall in Peru, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-521, 2021.

EGU21-12768 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Forecast-based operation of smart blue-green roofs to reduce the impacts of extreme weather in cities

Tim Busker, Toon Haer, Jeroen Aerts, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, and Kira Myers

Research shows that climate change will increase the intensity and frequency of extreme summer precipitation events as well as heatwaves, over the coming decades (IPCC, 2014; Russo et al., 2015). Moreover, the impact of heat waves will likely increase in cities due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect (Li & Bou-Zeid, 2013). Green infrastructure (e.g. parks, green roofs, etc.) is generally seen as an effective adaptation measure to address these challenges. The city of Amsterdam has started a project (RESILIO, https://resilio.amsterdam/en/smart-blue-green-roofs) to investigate a new innovation in this field: smart blue-green roofs. These roofs have the advantage over green roofs in that they have an extra water retention layer underneath the green layer, which can be used to buffer peak rainfall or as a capillary irrigation system for the plant layer in hot and dry summer days. The smart valve on the roof can be opened when extreme precipitation is predicted to capture extreme rainfall, but it is yet unknown if this forecast-based drainage provides added value to optimize the operation of the valve.

Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation forecasts to trigger drainage from blue-green roofs. A conceptual hydrological model of a blue-green roof in Amsterdam is set up to simulate its operation for the last 5 years. Three drainage strategies can be triggered according to different probabilities of precipitation (30th, 60th and 90th percentile) based on ECMWF data. Each strategy is evaluated on how it leads to (1) minimize the overflow during peak rainfall into the city drainage system, and (2) to maintain high water levels during hot summer days to boost evaporative cooling. Preliminary results show that some early drainage strategies result in capturing 50-100% of rainfall (>10mm/hr), while enough water is available on most hot summer days (T>25℃) to ensure atmospheric cooling through plant transpiration. This implies that relatively low-resolution (18km) precipitation forecasts from ECMWF are valuable for anticipatory water management on a very local scale. These results also show the high potential of blue-green roofs for urban climate adaptation, and the need for anticipatory management of these nature-based solutions. The next research steps will include a city-scale roof suitability analysis that will reveal the value of this solution when implemented at most flat roofs in the city of Amsterdam.

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Li, D., & Bou-Zeid, E. (2013). Synergistic interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves: The impact in cities is larger than the sum of its parts. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-02.1

Russo, S., Sillmann, J., & Fischer, E. M. (2015). Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003

How to cite: Busker, T., Haer, T., Aerts, J., de Moel, H., van den Hurk, B., and Myers, K.: Forecast-based operation of smart blue-green roofs to reduce the impacts of extreme weather in cities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12768, 2021.

EGU21-15223 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Flood monitoring using passive microwave remote sensing in the Senegal River, Western Mali

Soufiane el Khinifri, Marc van den Homberg, Tessa Kramer, Joost Beckers, Jaap Schellekens, Albert Kettner, Abdoul Aziz Mounkaila Issaka, Issoufou Maigary, Mamadou Adama Sarr, and Johannes Reiche
Water supports life, however it does come with hazards. Floods area amongst the most impactful environmental disasters. Accurate flood forecasting and early warning are critical for disaster risk management. Detecting and forecasting floods at an early stage is certainly relevant for Mali, hence crucial in order to prevent a hazard from turning into a disaster. Remotely sensed river monitoring can be an effective, systematic and time-efficient technique to detect and forecast extreme floods. Conventional flood forecasting systems require extensive data inputs and software to model floods. Moreover, most models rely on discharge data, which is not always available and is less accurate in a overbank flow situations. There is a need for an alternative method which detects riverine inundation, while making use of the available state-of-the-art.
This research investigates the use of passive microwave remote sensing with different spatial resolutions for the detection and forecasting of flooding. Brightness temperatures from two different downscaled spatial resolutions  (1 x 1 km and 10 x 10 km) are extracted from passive microwave remote sensing sensors and are converted into discharge estimators: a dry CM ratio and a wet CMc ratio. Surface water has a low emission, thus let the CM ratio increase as the surface water percentage in the pixel increases. Sharp increases are observed for over-bank flow conditions.

Overall, we compared the passive microwave remote sensing model results of the different spatial resolutions to the results of a conventional global runoff model GloFAS. The passive microwave remote sensing model does not require extensive input data when used as an Early Warning System (EWS), as many smaller-scale EWS do, we suggest that when improved, the passive microwave remote sensing method is implemented as part of an integrative EWS solution, including a passive microwave remote sensing model and various other models. This would allow for early warnings in data-scarce regions and at a variety of lead times. In order for this to be effective, we suggest that more research be done on correctly setting the trigger threshold, and into the potential spatial interpretation of CMc.

How to cite: el Khinifri, S., van den Homberg, M., Kramer, T., Beckers, J., Schellekens, J., Kettner, A., Mounkaila Issaka, A. A., Maigary, I., Sarr, M. A., and Reiche, J.: Flood monitoring using passive microwave remote sensing in the Senegal River, Western Mali, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15223, 2021.

EGU21-12810 | vPICO presentations | HS4.5

Characterizing housing stock vulnerability to floods by combining UAV, Mapillary and survey data – A case study for Karonga, Malawi

Inez Gortzak, Marc van den Homberg, Jacopo Margutti, Christopher Beddow, and Maarten van Aalst

To accurately identify the most vulnerable areas to floods, physical (e.g., building material) and social (e.g., education, health, income of households) housing stock information is required. However, in developing countries, this information is often unreliable, unavailable or inaccessible, and manual data collection is time-consuming. This can lead to difficulties for humanitarians or policymakers in implementing appropriate disaster risk reduction and response interventions. Therefore, there is a need for the development of alternative approaches to data collection and analysis. An alternative approach to on-site vulnerability assessment is to extract physical vulnerability characteristics, such as land use type or rooftop material, from satellite or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery. However, other social or physical vulnerability information on the household level can often not be extracted from only the remote sensing data. This research develops an approach for integrating multiple data sources into a Geographic Information System to improve the completeness of data on different vulnerability indicators. This approach is applied on the housing stock of the Karonga district in Malawi. An Object-Based Image Analysis on UAV imagery is combined with a machine learning analysis of Mapillary data to enable remote identification of both rooftop ànd wall material. Depth-damage curves were created to describe the impact on the housing stock for different categories of physical vulnerability (such as building material) and levels of inundation. Moreover, local survey data is used for the creation of a social vulnerability index. Combined, the datasets represent the spatial distribution of housing stock vulnerability for multiple flood scenarios. This approach is useful in situations where proactive risk analyses must be carried out or where local-scale interventions, such as building strengthening- or flood awareness projects, have to be implemented. Finally, we give recommendations for scaling the methodology to areas where only lower resolution data is available.

How to cite: Gortzak, I., van den Homberg, M., Margutti, J., Beddow, C., and van Aalst, M.: Characterizing housing stock vulnerability to floods by combining UAV, Mapillary and survey data – A case study for Karonga, Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12810, 2021.

HS4.7 – Emerging approaches: Hydrologic-hydraulic modelling for urban floods and Thresholds in hydrology

EGU21-8158 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7 | Highlight

Potential benefits of real-time control to reduce urban flooding using distributed smart stormwater storage systems

Ruijie Liang, Mark Thyer, Holger Maier, Michael Di Matteo, and Graeme Dandy

Stormwater infrastructure will require investments in the order of $100s of millions per local government area to maintain current levels of urban flood protection. This investment is likely to increase in the future as a result of the impact of climate change, population growth and increased urban densification. Traditional solutions aimed at increasing the capacity of stormwater systems have been directed towards pipe upgrades. An alternative approach is the use of smart storages, which have the following advantages:

  • Extension of the lifespan of existing stormwater systems
  • Provision of water supply
  • Reduction in pollution levels in receiving waters.

The development of smart technologies enables the use of real-time control for increasing the effectiveness of storages. If forecasts of the timing and magnitude of impending rainfall events are available, storage outlet controls can be optimised to release stored water prior to and during the rainfall event to enable the peak flows to be reduced. In addition, by jointly controlling the outflows from multiple, distributed storages, rather than using a single storage or controlling multiple storages independently, coincident flood peaks from different sub-catchments can be minimised, further reducing peak flows at critical locations.

In this study, the potential benefits of real-time time control for distributed storages are compared with a system that uses storages without real-time controls. The impacts were assessed using a two-storage system, which is modelled using the software package SWMM with the real-time control schemes of the storages being optimised using a genetic algorithm. The case study was conducted for two storage sizes (2 and 10 m3) under a wide range of design rainfall conditions, with storm durations ranging from short (30mins) to long (24hrs), and annual exceedance probability ranging from frequent (50%AEP), to rare (1%AEP) for three different Australian climates (sub-tropical/Mediterranean). This results in a total of 75 different combinations. Results show there is a generic relationship between percentage peak flow reduction and the ratio of storage size to storm runoff volume irrespective of location and storm characteristics. The benefits of real-time control of smart storage systems identified were:

  • Significant peak flow reductions ranging from 85% (for a larger storage size of 80% of storm volume) to 35% (for small storages size of 15% of runoff volume).
  • Importantly, real-time control of storages significantly outperforms storages without real-time control, with additional peak flow reduction of between 35% to 50%.

These results highlight the potential for using distributed storages for mitigating urban flooding, even for extreme events. The potential benefits of smart storages in more realistic cases studies (uncertain rainfall forecasts and larger scales) are also discussed.

How to cite: Liang, R., Thyer, M., Maier, H., Di Matteo, M., and Dandy, G.: Potential benefits of real-time control to reduce urban flooding using distributed smart stormwater storage systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8158, 2021.

EGU21-8212 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Upscaled shallow water modeling with SW2D-Lemon for urban flood simulation

Joao Guilherme Caldas Steinstraesser, Carole Delenne, Pascal Finaud-Guyot, Vincent Guinot, Joseph Luis Kahn Casapia, and Antoine Rousseau

We present a new multi-OS platform named SW2D-LEMON (SW2D for Shallow Water 2D) developed by the LEMON research team in Montpellier.

SW2D-LEMON is a multi-model software focusing on shallow water-based models. It includes an unprecedented collection of upscaled (porosity) models used for shallow water equations and transport-reaction processes. Porosity models are obtained by averaging the two-dimensional shallow water equations over large areas containing both a water and a solid phase. The size of a computational cell can be increased by a factor 10 to 50 compared to a 2D shallow water model, with CPU times reduced by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude. Applications include urban flood simulations as well as flows over complex topography. Besides the standard shallow water equations (the default model), several porosity models are included in the platform: (i) Single Porosity, (ii) Dual Integral Porosity, (iii) Depth-dependent Porosity. Various flow processes (friction, head losses, wind, momentum diffusion, precipitation/infiltration) can be included in a modular way by activating specific execution flags.

Classical input data are required by SW2D-Lemon software: mesh file (several formats available) with elements having an arbitrary number of edges; geometric and hydraulic parameter fields: bathymetry, porosity, Boussinesq/Coriolis momentum distribution coefficient, friction coefficient fields, etc.; initial and boundary conditions (several types available) and forcings (wind, rainfall).

SW2D can be used in two ways: in command-line mode or via a dedicated graphic user interface (GUI). Both features are available on all Windows, MacOS and Linux operating systems. SW2D is available under three license modes: Academic Research (source code, developer manual and basic configurations are freely available in the framework of a scientific partnership with the LEMON team), Industry and education.

Various real-world test cases will be presented to illustrate the potential of SW2D and the contribution of porosity based models to urban flood modelling:

    - Flood simulation on Sacramento city induced by the breach of a dike;
    - Marine submersion on Valras Plage;
    - Fast rain flood on the Abidjan Riviera district.

 

How to cite: Caldas Steinstraesser, J. G., Delenne, C., Finaud-Guyot, P., Guinot, V., Kahn Casapia, J. L., and Rousseau, A.: Upscaled shallow water modeling with SW2D-Lemon for urban flood simulation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8212, 2021.

EGU21-2985 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7 | Highlight

RIMurban – A generalized GPU-based model for urban pluvial flood risk modelling and forecasting

Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Mostafa Farrag, Nguyen Viet Dung, Melanie Karremann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz

Urban flash floods caused by heavy convective precipitation pose an increasing threat to communes world-wide due to the increasing intensity and frequency of convective precipitation caused by a warming atmosphere. Thus, flood risk management plans adapted to the current flood risk but also capable of managing future risks are of high importance. These plans necessarily need model based pluvial flood risk simulations. In an urban environment these simulations have to have a high spatial and temporal resolution in order to site-specific management solutions. Moreover, the effect of the sewer systems needs to be included to achieve realistic inundation simulations, but also to assess the effectiveness of the sewer system and its fitness to future changes in the pluvial hazard. The setup of these models, however, typically requires a large amount of input data, a high degree of modelling expertise, a long time for setting up the model setup and to finally run the simulations. Therefor most communes cannot perform this task.

 In order to provide model-based pluvial urban flood hazard and finally risk assessments for a large number of communes, the model system RIMurban was developed. The core of the system consists of a simplified raster-based 2D hydraulic model simulating the urban surface inundation in high spatial resolution. The model is implemented on GPUs for massive parallelization. The specific urban hydrology is considered by a capacity-based simulation of the sewer system and infiltration on non-sealed surfaces, and flow routing around buildings. The model thus considers the specific urban hydrological features, but with simplified approaches. Due to these simplifications the model setup can be performed with comparatively low data requirements, which can be covered with open data in most cases. The core data required are a high-resolution DEM, a layer of showing the buildings, and a land use map.

The spatially distributed rainfall input can be derived local precipitation records, or from an analysis of weather radar records of heavy precipitation events. A catalogue of heavy rain storms all over Germany is derived based on radar observations of the past 19 years. This catalogue serves as input for pluvial risk simulations for individual communes in Germany, as well as a catalogue of possible extreme events for the current climate. Future changes in these extreme events will be estimated based on regional climate simulations of a ΔT (1.5°C, 2°C) warmer world.

RIMurban simulates the urban inundation caused by these events, as well as the stress on the sewer system. Based on the inundation maps the damage to residential buildings will be estimated and further developed to a pluvial urban flood risk assessment. Because of the comparatively simple model structure and low data demand, the model setup can be easily automatized and transferred to most small to medium sized communes in Europe and even beyond, if the damage estimation is modified. RIMurban is thus seen as a generally appölicable screening tool for urban pluvial flood risk and a starting point for adapted risk management plans.

How to cite: Apel, H., Vorogushyn, S., Farrag, M., Dung, N. V., Karremann, M., Kreibich, H., and Merz, B.: RIMurban – A generalized GPU-based model for urban pluvial flood risk modelling and forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2985, 2021.

EGU21-14655 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Combining open channel and sewer system network modelling to develop the Hydraulic Risk Management Plan for Brescia (Northern Italy)

Giovanna Grossi, Francesca Berteni, Arianna Dada, and Paolo Leoni

Flood risk management is one of priorities set by the European Union to protect population and assets. In a very recent report of the European Environment Agency dealing with urban adaptation to climate change (EEA, 2020), extreme weather events (heatwaves, heavy precipitation, flooding and droughts) are expected to cause the most pronounced impacts in European cities, besides vector‑borne diseases. Italian regions are taclking flood risk management also by setting regulations on the runoff production in urban areas.

According to a recent regulation approved by Regione Lombardia municipalities are requested to prepare the Hydraulic Risk Management Plan, including measures to ensure compliance with the principle of the ‘hydraulic’ and ‘hydrological’ invariance for the urban area, in which runoff volumes generated by an intense meteoric event must remain unchanged or at least must be limited. The idea arises from the need to manage the rainwater drainage in urban contexts, where the existing sewerage system has been designed based on an inadequate return time period.

The planning activity requires a modelling framework accounting for both the open channel network (mainly addressing irrigation demand) and the sewer pipe network. While separate hydraulic models might help the management provided by separate authorities, an integrated model is ensuring a complete representation of the system hydrodynamics. This type of model is characterized by a much more complex structure which requires greater data accuracy for the construction and calibration of the model in order to obtain realistic results.

Some critical issues are being presented for Brescia, a town located in Northern Italy, at the foothills of the Alps.  Potential flood risk is linked to the dense historical irrigation and drainage channels network that cross the urban area from north to south and the old city centre. Critical areas are those hosting the post-war urban development where the waterways have been uncovered and covered in a chaotic and uncontrolled way, in some cases even under houses and other buildings.

How to cite: Grossi, G., Berteni, F., Dada, A., and Leoni, P.: Combining open channel and sewer system network modelling to develop the Hydraulic Risk Management Plan for Brescia (Northern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14655, 2021.

EGU21-4881 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7 | Highlight

Assessment of 1D/2D coupled model for prediction of flood inundation

Rashmi Yadav and Sanjay M. Yadav

In the era of increased extreme events, the assessment and management of the consequences become a necessity. Since the past twenty years floods affected more than two billion people worldwide. Urbanisation, overpopulation, insufficient drainage systems, spatio-temporal variation of rainfall events, climate change, unplanned settlements over the coastal areas and flood-prone areas can be few of the causes of floods. 1D, 2D and 1D/2D coupled hydro-dynamic models are developed to study such flood events. Some of the popular models used for the analysis of floods are HEC RAS, MIKE 11, MIKE 21, MIKE Urban, SWMM, SOBEK, FLO-2D and SWAT. These models use implicit and explicit finite difference schemes are used for solving one and two-dimensional hyperbolic partial differential equations. The data requirements and methodology for the development and assessment of modelling extreme flood events across the globe is highlighted and presented in the paper. Importance of developing the framework beforehand for optimising of model suitability, availability of data and objective function is reviewed. The present study discusses important 1D/2D coupled models case studies used for flood inundation studies.

Keywords: Floods, extreme events, modelling, HEC RAS, shallow water equations.

How to cite: Yadav, R. and Yadav, S. M.: Assessment of 1D/2D coupled model for prediction of flood inundation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4881, 2021.

In recent study, Gujarat has become one of the India’s most urbanized state, causing severe flash flooding. The Sabarmati river is one of the major west-flowing rivers in India and biggest river of north Gujarat.Urbanization should meet the population’s need by enlargement of paved areas, which has unusually changed the catchment’s hydrological and hydraulic characteristic. Therefor, the frequency of flash flooding in Sabarmati river has been increased. The Sabarmati river basin experienced eight times devastating flooding coendition between 1972 to 2020.Among which July 2017 flooding event breakdown a 112 years old record of 1905. The Dharoi dam and Wasna barrage on Sabarmati river and surrounding district Kheda, Mehsana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad received a huge rainfall caused anomalous inflow to tributary which forced the dam authorities to release huge discharge in short duration which leads to flooding. The Sabarmati riverfront of Ahmedabad had been going under water for five days due incessant rainfall in the city that leads to swelling of the Sabarmati river in 2017. In order to determine extent of Inundation, Hydrodynamic Model HEC-RAS(5.0.6) with Arc GIS was used. Various scenarios were run with HEC-RAS to study the impact of flow simulation on flood inundation(with & without riverfront project). The simulated flood depths have been compared with actual depths obtained at gauging station, which were collected from Government authorities. Ultimately, the analysis was used to create maps for different return periods with RAS Mapper and ArcMap that visually show the reach of the floodplains, illustrating the affected areas. Results demonstrate the usefulness of  modelling system to predict the extent of flood inundation and thus support analyses of management strategies to deal with risk associated with infrastructure in an urban setting.

How to cite: chandel, S. and shah, S.: Integrating 1D-2D Hydrodynamic Model For Sabarmati Upper River Basin With Special Reference to Ahmedabad City Area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12680, 2021.

Evaluate the Use of Wetland Performance Includes Multi-Scale Tests to Emphasize the Runoff Control Volume Based on Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Yasir Abduljaleela, *

a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Washington State University

* Corresponding Author: Yasir.abduljaleel@wsu.edu, h3h111@gmail.com

 

Abstract

Climate change has affected environmental and weather hazards, such as flooding, stormwater, and droughts. Extreme storms have wide and heavy impacts on lives and property. Nowadays, according to the urbanization phenomena, there are different changes over the surfaces. Indeed, the surfaces are mainly covered by impermeable materials, such as creating buildings, concrete, asphalt, etc., so these elements can intensify the water movements. In this regard, researchers have concentrated on evaluating LID (Low Impact Development) hydrological performance and hydraulic behavior on flooding in the last years. Therefore, assessing the performances of the wetland under climate change conditions can proved to be a robust solution to emphasize the runoff control volume based on the climate change adaptation strategy. In this study, we assessed the performance of wetlands by simulating the runoff module with the original scenario considering no wetlands implementation to calculate the original runoff volume. Subsequently, the drainage model will be simulated in scenarios with wetlands controls to get the adapted runoff volume and achieving the desired runoff mitigation and reduction through applying the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) to an urban watershed. The study area is located at the Boeing Commercial Airplane, which is on the southern shore of Lake Washington, within the City of Renton, Washington. Downstream analysis was conducted considering the natural point-of-discharge is a wetland that eventually drains to Springbrook Creek located about ¼ mile from the southeast corner of the study area. The Cedar River's facility is bordered to the west, and Logan Avenue to the east, and surrounding land use is predominantly commercial, industrial, and retail. The observed runoff data (1995–2014) from the situ gauging station were used for calibration and validation. The calibration period for long time-series is from 1995 to 2008, and the validation period is 2009–2014. The result shows that the NSE coefficients of the parameter sets with the best simulation of the Watershed dynamics calibration and validation periods are 0.73 and 0.71. Also, we concluded that the wetland provides better amounts of peak flow reduction. The selection of SWMM parameters for calibration can be evaluated the sensitivity of SWMM calibration parameters, and the result revealed that the parameters conduit CN, percent zero, imperviousness, and sub-catchment width have relatively significant effect.

 Keywords: Keywords: Wetlands, Hydrology, Climate change, SWMM; Hydrological Model; Calibration model, Sensitivity Analysis.

How to cite: Abduljaleel, Y.: Evaluate the Use of Wetland Performance Includes Multi-Scale Tests to Emphasize the Runoff Control Volume Based on Climate Change Adaptation Strategy , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8143, 2021.

EGU21-2804 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Effects of rainfall spatial-temporal variability on flash flood modelling

Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash and Daniel Bachmann

Precipitation time series with high spatial and temporal resolutions are the driving force for hydrodynamic modelling of floods. Spatially-uniform precipitation correlated to a certain return period which typically is derived based on point rainfall records have been used for flood risk evaluation. This is mainly due to reasons such as limited observed data, low-density measuring networks or merely the inherent simplicity of using spatially-uniform rain storms in flood simulations. While the use of such rainfalls is convenient, spatially-uniform design storms tend to neglect the impact of rain spatial variability on the hydrological response of the hydrological catchment. Additionally, extreme storm events with high temporal and spatial variability are predicted to occur more often as a result of climate change.

In this work, we study the extent spatially explicit precipitation can affect flooded areas, water levels and surface flow generation in catchment areas in flood modelling. Moreover, the influence of rainfall spatial resolution is also taken into account. This is achieved by means of physically-based, spatially explicit surface flow simulations using the tool ProMaIDes (2021), a free software for risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures. Precipitation data is generated based on the Poisson distribution and furthermore spatially interpolated in different resolutions using interpolation methods such as the Inversed Distance Squared method and Kriging.

Our study area is the Kan river catchment located in the province of Tehran (Iran) with a total area of 836 km², which has experienced multiple flooding events in recent years. Due to its semi-arid climate and steep topography, the area has high potential for flash flood occurrence as a result of high intensity precipitation.

The results of this study show a range of possible magnitudes of influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment´s runoff response. The resulting flood maps highlight the importance of rainfall spatial-temporal variability in the estimation of flood likelihood in urban catchment areas. Moreover, the flood maps resulting from spatially explicit rain signals provide a more comprehensive assessment of flooding in contrast to the spatially-uniform rainfall events, which allows for better flood risk mitigation decisions.

ProMaIDes (2021): Protection Measures against Inundation Decision support. https://tinyurl.com/promaides77 (last access 11.1.2021)

Acknowledgment: This work is part of the BMBF-IKARIM funded project HoWaMan (Sustainable Strategies and Technologies for Flood Risk Management in Arid and Semi-arid Areas)

How to cite: Khosh Bin Ghomash, S. and Bachmann, D.: Effects of rainfall spatial-temporal variability on flash flood modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2804, 2021.

EGU21-10218 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Hydraulic modelling of extreme flood event of semi-arid river basin

Mohamedmaroof Shaikh, Sanjaykumar Yadav, and Vivek Manekar

Floods are among the severe weather disasters that cause catastrophic damage to surroundings and adversely impact populations. This study aims to create a one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic model using HEC-RAS for the Rel River in Banaskantha, Gujarat, India. The model has been developed for the extreme flood event of July 2017. A total of hundred cross-sections have been used as geometric data. The peak discharge of 3355 m3/s and the river slope has been applied as upstream and downstream boundary conditions. The model has been calibrated and validated using observed water depth at Railway bridge and Highway bridge. Critical cross-sections have been identified using the 1D hydraulic model. Eight out of the hundred cross-sections were safe for a flood discharge of 3355 m3/s. The villages at high flood risk are identified for this discharge. To mitigating floods, the construction of a retaining wall or levees is recommended to protect these villages. This study can help a disaster management strategy for the cities and town in the River’s vicinity.

How to cite: Shaikh, M., Yadav, S., and Manekar, V.: Hydraulic modelling of extreme flood event of semi-arid river basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10218, 2021.

EGU21-14633 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Assessing the utility of climate variability information in streamflow forecasting

Prem Lal Patel, Priyank Sharma, and Ramesh Teegavarapu

The prediction of total and peak streamflows are essential for effective management of water resources systems. A data-driven approach, Model Tree (MT), is applied to predict daily streamflows for a tropical river basin in India. The Tapi River drains a total area of 65,225 km2, wherein more than 20 million people are directly or indirectly dependent on it for their water and food requirements. The MT approach executes piece-wise linearization of a non-linear process for the input parameter space and develops linear regression models for each sub-space. The large-scale oceanic-atmospheric oscillations, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exert considerable influence on the hydroclimatic conditions across the globe. Based on the Oceanic Niño Index, the warm and cool phases of ENSO are identified as El Niño and La Niña, respectively. It is found that the El Niño and La Niña are associated with drier and wetter than normal conditions respectively across the Tapi basin. Hence, the hypothesis that incorporation of climate variability information would help in enhancing the predictive performance of the model is being tested. A daily-time step model for streamflow prediction is developed considering various hydrometerological inputs observed for the period 1975-2013 to predict streamflows at the catchment outlet. Additionally, two separate models, viz., El Niño- and La Niña-specific models, are developed considering the observed variables corresponding to these phases, and their skill of prediction with respect to the overall model is evaluated. The evaluation of the developed models is further carried out through a suite of statistical error and performance indices, and inferences are drawn.

How to cite: Patel, P. L., Sharma, P., and Teegavarapu, R.: Assessing the utility of climate variability information in streamflow forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14633, 2021.

EGU21-14843 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Practical rainfall thresholds for separating non-erosive and erosive storms 

Alessandra Vinci

The identification of thresholds of simple and practical determination capable of operating a separation between non-erosive and erosive rains has considerable importance from both a practical and scientific point of view. It allows reducing the work necessary to manage and process erosive events and provides useful information to determine the triggering of erosion processes of different entities and nature and consequently to understand their dynamics better.

In previous work, Todisco et al. (2019) analyzed 528 rainfall events from 2008 to 2017 at the Masse experimental station (central Italy) to define and evaluate several thresholds of rainfall characteristics able to classify non-erosive and erosive events. Each threshold value was obtained by imposing that the long-term erosivity of the events above the threshold is equal to the long-term erosivity of all erosive events observed. The evaluation criteria of the thresholds were mainly based on the percentage of correct selections, CSI (number of erosive events selected to the total number of erosive events) and the percentage of wrong selection, WSI (number of non-erosive events to the total number of events selected). The analysis was performed on the basis of a 5-min rainfall dataset.

This work aims to evaluate the influence of the rainfall data acquisition time on the thresholds (both in terms of value and accuracy). For this purpose, the Masse experimental station's rainfall dataset was aggregated at a 30-min time interval and then subjected to the same analysis carried out in the previous study. The 30-min time interval has a practical interest since it represents the typical time interval of the Regional Hydrographic Service data.

The results indicate that some of the best thresholds identified on the basis of the 5-min database are the best also working on the 30-minute data, with small performance variations (CSI ranging between 55 to 75% and WSI  between 15 to 30%). Among the best thresholds can be mentioned: the total event rainfall, Pe (14.4 and 15.2mm for the 5-min and 30-min database, respectively), the kinetic energy of the event, E (2.4 and 2.7MJ ha−1), the rainfall duration above a pre-determined intensity, Drun (0.3 and 0.5h), and the Maximum rainfall amount in a rain shower, P_max_burst (7.6 and 10.2mm). It is evident that the threshold value tends to slightly increase, passing from a 5-min to a 30-min rainfall dataset. Moreover, some thresholds considered effective working on the 5-min dataset, obtained very poor performance on the 30-min database. This happened for some rainfall variables related to the number of runs or showers during the event, such as the Maximum rainfall depth cumulated from the start of the rainfall event to the rain shower, Max_P_pre_burst. This poor performance depends on the fact that in the 30-min dataset, the internal structure of the event hyetograph is smoothed and not able to provide relevant information as in the 5-min dataset.

The best thresholds identified from the 30-min rainfall dataset will be used in a regional analysis aimed to map the spatial variability of the return periods of erosive events.

How to cite: Vinci, A.: Practical rainfall thresholds for separating non-erosive and erosive storms , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14843, 2021.

As many other natural hazards, the crop water stress has a typical multivariate nature, i.e., it is characterized by the contemporary presence of multiple characteristics correlated with each other (e.g., duration, severity, peak, areal extension, etc.). In this situation, a risk analysis based on a traditional univariate approach is inadequate for a complete interpretation of the phenomenon. Copula models can effectively solve the probabilistic joint analysis of two or more random correlated variables. Copulas are functions that join univariate probability distributions to form multivariate probability distributions, modelling the dependence structure among random variables independently of their marginal distributions. This work illustrates how the joint probability and return periods of the Duration (D, days) and Severity (S, mm) of the crop water stress can be used to obtain information useful in defining drought management strategies. The case study refers to some localities of central Italy and olive crops, widely cultivated in the region considered, mainly under rainfed conditions. In the case study, 65 years of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were used to obtain a rough estimation (following the FAO 56 guidelines) of the daily soil water dynamics (SWt), available for the olive crops at each locality considered. Then, by applying the Theory of Runs to SWt, with a threshold equal to the crop critical point (SWcrit), the water stress events were identified and characterized by their D (days) and S (i.e., the cumulative evapotranspiration deficit, mm) for each locality. A 2-parameter Gamma distribution was fitted to both D and S, whilst a Frank copula modelled their dependence structure. These joint probability models were then used to quantify the return periods associated with specific user-defined critical threshold events; in this work, the critical threshold events were simply defined on the basis of a statistical approach (e.g., combining the values of D and S corresponding to the 90th percentiles). However, in a real case application, the critical thresholds could arise from considerations on the crop impacts deriving from specific D and S values. Despite the modest areal extension of the case study, results show that the climatic conditions significantly affect the bivariate return period of the critical threshold events, which varies between 3 and 15 years in the localities considered. We also evaluated the return time increment due to some drought management strategies, such as the application of rescue irrigation. For example, the application of an irrigation volume of 50 mm in the mid of the growing season is able to produce a relevant change of the return period, thus varies between 5 and 77 years.

 

How to cite: Vergni, L. and Todisco, F.: Joint return periods of critical thresholds of duration and severity of crop water stress in some areas of central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14925, 2021.

EGU21-7526 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Exploring Hydrological Connections: A Threshold and Complex Network Based Approach 

Aliva Nanda and Sumit Sen

The non-linear behaviour of soil moisture and rainfall influences the hillslope runoff generation mechanism and its thresholds. Inherent complexities of the hydrological processes at micro- to macro-scale hydrological systems need to be studied for identifying dominant connections. In this context, complex network theory is a beneficial tool to deal with all kinds of hydrological connections. To understand the practical implication of complex network theory and to explore out the runoff thresholds of infiltration-excess hillslope, we have selected two experimental hillslopes under two different landuse conditions i.e., agro-forested (AgF) and Grassed (GA) hillslopes. The hillslopes are situated at the Lesser Himalayan region of India. These are instrumented with ten soil moisture and water level sensors for capturing spatio-temporal variation of soil moisture and hillslope runoff at the outlet, respectively. After analyzing 59 rainfall events, we found that runoff generation in GA hillslope is significantly triggered when the 5-min peak rainfall intensity and initial soil moisture conditions exceed 50 mm/h and 0.25 m3/m3, respectively. The runoff generation in AgF hillslope is triggered when the 5-min peak rainfall intensity and initial soil moisture condition exceeds the mark of 12 mm/h and 0.20 m3/m3, accordingly. High intensity with very less duration event cannot generate any runoff at hillslope outlet; however, a low intensity with long duration (> 15h) event could generate small runoff volume at both the hillslopes. After analyzing the runoff threshold, we used complex network theory to understand the connection between runoff and soil moisture for different runoff generating groups. Further, events having high rainfall intensity and high soil moisture condition show the more robust network connectivity between the runoff and the soil moisture points and moderate connectivity among the soil moisture stations. Primarily, in high-intensity events, the strongly connected soil moisture and the runoff nodes represents less runoff from that zone in an infiltration-excess dominated hillslope. The low-intensity rainfall of both the hillslope shows stronger network connectivity among the soil moisture, and the weak network connectivity between the runoff points and the soil moisture points as the events result in less runoff. Networks often contain clusters among the nodes and to measure the local density of these nodes, we calculated the global clustering coefficient (GCC). The GCC of all the selected events declines with an increase in correlation threshold (CT) values which indicate a decrease in network connectivity between the nodes for higher CT. For CT≥ 0.8, the GCC values for the low-intensity events were higher than the high-intensity events, as the soil moisture networks are strong and dense during low-intensity events for high CT values. This study shows the first-time application of network theory to understand the linkage between network topology and hillslope runoff behaviour. However, we encourage the researchers to explore similar approaches in saturation-excess dominated hillslopes where the twining between soil moisture and runoff are different.

How to cite: Nanda, A. and Sen, S.: Exploring Hydrological Connections: A Threshold and Complex Network Based Approach , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7526, 2021.

EGU21-10212 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Slope threshold in rill flow resistance

Alessio Nicosia and Vito Ferro

Rills are small, steep sloping and ephemeral channels, shaped in soils, in which shallow flows move. Rill erosion strictly depends on hydraulic characteristics of the rill flow and for this reason flow discharge Q, rill width w, water depth h, mean flow velocity V, and friction factor are required to model the rill erosion process.

Erosive phenomena strictly depend on the attitude of the soil particles to be detached (detachability) and to be transported (transportability). These properties are affected by soil texture and influence the sediment load G to be transported by flow. The actual sediment load depends on the transport capacity Tc of the flow, which is the maximum amount of sediment, with given sizes and specific weight, that can be transported by a flow of known hydraulic characteristics.

According to Jiang et al. (2018) the hydraulic mechanisms of soil erosion for steep slopes are different from those for gentle slopes. Recent research on Tc equations exploring slopes steeper than 18% (Ali et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2009; Wu et al., 2016) established that Tc relationships designed for gentle slopes (<18%) are unsuitable to be applied to steep slopes (17–47%). Also Peng et al. (2015) noticed that <<there has been little research concerning rill flow on steep slopes (e.g. slope gradients higher than 10°)>>. In other words, the slope of 18% could be used to distinguish between the “gentle slope” and the “steep slope” case for the recognized difference in hydraulic and sediment transport variables.

The applicability of a theoretical rill flow resistance equation, based on the integration of a power velocity distribution (Barenblatt, 1979; 1987), was tested using measurements carried out in mobile rills shaped on plots having different slopes (9, 14, 15, 18, 22, 24, 25 and 26%) and soil textures (clay fractions ranging from 32.7% to 73% and silt of 19.9% – 30.9%), and measurements available in literature (Jiang et al. (2018), Huang et al. (2020) and Yang et al. (2020)).

The Darcy-Weisbach friction factor resulted dependent on slope, Froude number, Reynolds number and CLAY and SILT percentages, which represent soil transportability and detachability, respectively. This theoretical approach was applied to two different databases distinguished by the slope threshold of 18%. The results showed that, for gentle slopes (< 18%), the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor increases with slope, CLAY and SILT content. Taking into account that for gentle slopes the hydraulic characteristics limit the transport capacity, for this condition Tc and the sediment load G are both limiting factors.

For steep slopes (> 18%), the flow resistance increases with slope and the ratio between SILT and CLAY percentage. Steep slopes determine high values of the transport capacity, which is consequently not a limiting factor. Thus, in this condition the actual sediment load is determined exclusively by the ratio between SILT and CLAY percentage. In other words, the only limiting factor for a steep slope condition is the sediment which can be transported (i.e. the sediment load G), affected by its soil detachability and transportability.

How to cite: Nicosia, A. and Ferro, V.: Slope threshold in rill flow resistance, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10212, 2021.

EGU21-13941 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Restriction threshold of vapor pressure deficit for light use efficiency varied with soil water content

Dexin Gao, Shuai Wang, Zidong Li, Fangli Wei, Peng Chen, Bojie Fu, Shuang Song, and Yaping Wang

Understanding the constraints on light-use efficiency (LUE) created by high evaporative water demand (vapor-pressure deficit; VPD) and restricted water supply (soil moisture content; SMC) is crucial for understanding and simulating vegetation productivity, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the relative impacts of VPD and SMC on photosynthesis are unclear, as we lack a mechanistic understanding of them and their interactions. In this study, we quantified the relative roles of VPD and SMC in limiting LUE and analyzed the interactions among VPD, SMC, and LUE in China’s Heihe River Basin using data from CO2 and water flux stations and weather stations along a climatic gradient. We found a threshold for VPD’s restriction of LUE; above the threshold, LUE decreased at only 3.6% to 23.1% of the rate below the threshold. As SMC decreased, however, the VPD threshold increased, and the reduction of LUE caused by VPD decreased significantly, which is more than half lower than that in moister regions. Therefore, both VPD and SMC played essential roles in LUE limitation and the resulting reduction of photosynthesis caused by water stress. A threshold also existed for heat flux and the correlation between SMC and LUE; the strength of the correlation first decreased and then increased with increasing VPD. Our results clarified the relative impacts of VPD and SMC on photosynthesis, and can improve simulation and prediction of plant productivity.

How to cite: Gao, D., Wang, S., Li, Z., Wei, F., Chen, P., Fu, B., Song, S., and Wang, Y.: Restriction threshold of vapor pressure deficit for light use efficiency varied with soil water content, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13941, 2021.

EGU21-356 | vPICO presentations | HS4.7

Identification of hydro-meteorological thresholds for rainfall-induced landslide prediction with clustering techniques

Pasquale Marino, Carlo Giudicianni, Giovanni francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco

Operational early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides (LEWS) usually rely on simple empirical thresholds based on the statistical analysis of either triggering rainfall characteristics, e.g. intensity and duration (Guzzetti et al., 2007). The main pro of this simplified approach is that it requires only rainfall records, at the desired spatial and temporal resolution, and a database of landslides with known time and location. The effect of the hydrologic conditions of the slopes prior the onset of the triggering rainfall is usually neglected, limiting the performance of the LEWS, which often give rise to false and missing alarms. To address this issue, antecedent precipitation is sometimes included in the definition of the threshold, but the identification of the antecedent precipitation duration is doubtful, as this approach neglects non-linear hydrological processes affecting slope response. Hydro-meteorological thresholds, linking a variable accounting for the antecedent hydrologic conditions with a characteristic of the triggering rainfall, have been recently proposed (Bogaard and Greco, 2018).

In this study, hydro-meteorological thresholds for landslide prediction are identified for a slope in southern Italy, characterized by an unsaturated pyroclastic soil cover laying upon fractured limestone bedrock and subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides. To this aim, a synthetic 1000 years long hourly point rainfall record is generated with the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulse stochastic model, calibrated thanks to available measured rainfall. The response of the slope to the synthetic rainfall record is simulated by means of a physically-based model, which couples unsaturated flow in the soil cover with a temporary perched aquifer in the limestone bedrock, and allows estimating all the terms of slope water balance (Greco et al., 2018). The stability of the slope is eventually assessed under the infinite slope hypothesis, allowing the identification of the occurrence of landslides.

The obtained synthetic dataset of rainfall and hydrologic variables has been exploited for the definition of hydro-meteorological thresholds. All the combinations of hydrologic variables with triggering rainfall height have been analyzed with several clustering techniques, so to identify the most effective combinations for landslide predictions.

 

References:

Bogaard TA, Greco R (2018). Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 18: 31–39.

Greco R, Marino P, Santonastaso GF, Damiano E (2018). Interaction between Perched Epikarst Aquifer and Unsaturated Soil Cover in the Initiation of Shallow Landslides in Pyroclastic Soils, Water, 10: 948.

Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007). Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe, Meteorol Atmos Phys, 98: 239–267.

How to cite: Marino, P., Giudicianni, C., Santonastaso, G. F., and Greco, R.: Identification of hydro-meteorological thresholds for rainfall-induced landslide prediction with clustering techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-356, 2021.

HS5.1.2 – Advances in sociohydrology

EGU21-11324 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2 | Highlight

Integrating institutions into a socio-hydrological model: an example for water quality management in Burkina Faso

Gemma Carr, Marlies Barendrecht, Liza Debevec, and Bedru Balana

The variety of demands that people place on water resources, coupled with the dynamics of the natural system, make water resource management highly complex. Models that can integrate aspects of society such as institutions, perceptions and behaviors along with aspects of the natural system such as rainfall, runoff and water quality could offer a realistic approach to better understand and manage these complex systems. Much research progress in the development of such socio-hydrological models has been achieved in recent years. However, many gaps exist on how the decisions and actions of institutions and agencies, and their subsequent impacts on individuals, can be integrated within such models. In this study, a socio-hydrological model was developed using a set of empirical field data from the Black Volta (Mouhoun) watershed in south west Burkina Faso. Cultivation of the riparian zones and use of agrochemicals are commonly associated with increased sedimentation in the river and water pollution, respectively. The model aims to capture the relationships between agency support for water quality management, the capacity of local organizations to support farmers and land users, land use changes in the riparian zones, improved agricultural practices employed by farmers (e.g., reduced tillage, organic farming, or cultivating tree crops rather than vegetables), and suspended sediment concentration in the river as an indicator of water quality. The model is set up to reflect the current situation and scenarios are generated depicting plausible pathways to achieve improved water quality through riparian land management strategies. Comparison of the modelled scenarios shows that water quality could be improved if institutional support and public resource allocation for water management is raised, and the capacity of local level organizations is substantially increased compared to current levels. Semi-quantitative socio-hydrological models, such as the one developed in this study, may provide insights for the comparison and prioritization of different management strategies and guide interventions or support mechanisms that enable riparian land users to change their agricultural practices and lead to water quality improvements.

How to cite: Carr, G., Barendrecht, M., Debevec, L., and Balana, B.: Integrating institutions into a socio-hydrological model: an example for water quality management in Burkina Faso, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11324, 2021.

EGU21-13825 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Model Informed Data Collection in Coupled Human-Water Systems: An Exploratory Application of a Hydrological and Agent-Based Model

Behshad Mohajer, David Yu, Marco Janssen, and Margaret Garcia

Hydrological systems in the Anthropocene have shown substantial shifts from their natural processes due to human modifications. Consequently, deploying coupled human-water modeling is a critical tool to analyze observed changes. However, the development of socio-hydrological models often requires extensive qualitative data collection in the field and analysis. Despite the advances in developing inter-disciplinary methodologies in utilizing qualitative data for coupled human-water modeling, there is a need to identify influential parameters in these systems to inform data collection. Here, we present an exploratory socio-hydrological model to systemically investigate the feedback system of public infrastructure providers, resource users, and the dynamics of water scarcity at the catchment scale to inform data collection and analysis in the field. Specifically, we propose a novel socio-hydrological model by employing and integrating a top-down hydrological model and an extension of Aqua.MORE Model (an Agent-Based Model designed to simulate dynamics of water supply and demand). Specifically, we model alternate behavioral theories of human decision-making to represent the agents’ behavior. Then, we perform sensitivity analysis techniques to identify key socio-economic and behavioral parameters affecting emergence patterns in a stylized human-dominated catchment. We apply the proposed methodology to the Lake Mendocino Watershed in Northern California, US. The results will potentially point which parameters are influential and how they could be mapped to a particular interview or survey question. This study will help us to identify features of decision-making behavior for inclusion in fieldwork, that be might be overlooked in the absence of the proposed modeling. We anticipate that the proposed approach also contributes to the current Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) which aims at improving the interpretation of the hydrological processes governing the socio-hydrological systems by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems.

How to cite: Mohajer, B., Yu, D., Janssen, M., and Garcia, M.: Model Informed Data Collection in Coupled Human-Water Systems: An Exploratory Application of a Hydrological and Agent-Based Model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13825, 2021.

EGU21-10064 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Augmenting a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model for Companies with Process-oriented Loss Estimation

Lukas Schoppa, Marlies Barendrecht, Tobias Sieg, Nivedita Sairam, and Heidi Kreibich

Sociohydrological models are increasingly used in flood risk analysis to reveal and understand the temporal dynamics in coupled human-flood systems. While most sociohydrological flood risk models are stylized and describe hypothetical human-flood systems, very few recent case studies employ empirical data to investigate real world systems. The mathematical representation of flooding processes in these models is often simplistic and does not reflect the current state of knowledge. This is due to the intricacy of human-flood interactions and the lack of sufficient and suitable historical data.

We augment an existing, parsimonious sociohydrological flood risk model with a process-oriented flood loss model to integrate better understanding of flood damage processes into a sociohydrological modeling framework. Using Bayesian inference, we simulate the co-evolution of the flood risk system for companies located at the river Elbe in Dresden, Germany, over the course of 120 years. We compare model versions with differently complex process description on the basis of their loss prediction accuracy and uncertainty. This allows for exploring the added value of (i) resolving the inundation and damage process with more detail and (ii) accounting for heterogeneity across economic sectors. Apart from historical sociohydrological data, the proposed, augmented model versions are informed by object-level loss data, inundation maps, and spatial data, enhancing the pool of information available to the model. A leave-one-out cross-validation experiment shows that the augmented model versions increase the precision and reduce the uncertainty of company flood loss predictions in Dresden. In addition, the augmented models provide reliable loss predictions even in the absence of extensive historical flood loss data.

The demonstrated model augmentation concept is not limited to the flood damage process but could be transferred to other processes within the human-flood system. For instance, by incorporating a dedicated model from protection motivation theory that describes how flood awareness and preparedness change after the occurrence of a damaging flood event.

How to cite: Schoppa, L., Barendrecht, M., Sieg, T., Sairam, N., and Kreibich, H.: Augmenting a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model for Companies with Process-oriented Loss Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10064, 2021.

EGU21-1788 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Representing ancient southern Mesopotamia irrigated landscapes in an agent-based model

Dengxiao Lang and Maurits W. Ertsen

In order to explore possibilities of mimicking the operation of an irrigation system under varied scenarios, the authors have designed the Irrigation-Related Agent-Based Model (IRABM), providing a platform for integrating human and non-human agents (water managers, farmers, barley, river, canals, and gates) together and analyzing the interactions among these agents. IRABM illustrates how barley yields respond to varied irrigation strategies and how patterns of yields vary among the levels of individual farmers, canals, and the whole irrigation system. The model proves how this type of theoretically and empirically informed computer model can be used to develop new insights into studying and simulating interactions between individuals and their environment in an irrigation system. Furthermore, it demonstrates how and why irrigation and yield patterns can emerge from changing actions.

One of the applications of the model will be for ancient Southern Mesopotamia, the pluvial land between the two rivers Euphrates and Tigris. Our knowledge of irrigation management and irrigated-landscapes in southern Mesopotamia fairly scant due to lack of data, but also because attention for the details of irrigation management has been ignored in archaeological analysis to date. IRABM offers options to synchronize the general features of irrigation systems to the specifics of Mesopotamia. How to represent ancient Mesopotamia in IRABM is the key question we address in this paper.

Given the low precipitation, the available water in Mesopotamia’s watercourses for cultivation was vital. This prompted the establishment of irrigated agriculture, leading to its sophisticated irrigation systems over time. Management of irrigation activities is both related to water volumes in the different (levels of) water courses, and to the size of a system. Because of the expanding Mesopotamian society, and this its irrigated areas, the unpredictable water availability, and the threat of water scarcity during the crop growing period, coordinating issues were critical.

How to present ancient Mesopotamian irrigation systems in IRABM and how to fully explore the temporal and spatial coordination issues is our current challenge. Using the standard composition of irrigation systems in the primary canal, secondary canals, and tertiary canals, we can draft sizes of these levels. The cultivated size of agricultural land varied among the different levels of canals. Generally, the primary canal would supply 5 to 6 villages, while the second and tertiary canals might irrigate land in 2 to 3 villages and 1 village, respectively. The main crops were winter crops (barley and wheat). The water regimes of the two rivers are characterized by great, rather unpredictable fluctuations that do not coincide with winter crops.

This presentation will discuss how the data on ancient Mesopotamian irrigation (including water availability in rivers, canals, and fields, and surface areas of irrigated landscapes) can be meaningfully included in an ABM that allows studying how small/short processes contribute to large-scale patterns and processes occurring in irrigation systems.

How to cite: Lang, D. and W. Ertsen, M.: Representing ancient southern Mesopotamia irrigated landscapes in an agent-based model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1788, 2021.

EGU21-6731 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Dynamic Coupling of SWAT+ with System Dynamics Models using Tinamït and a Socket Based Protocol

Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard, and Jan F. Adamowski

Effective and sustainable decision making in water resources management often requires modelling techniques that are able to account for the inherent complexity of coupled human-water systems. One approach that is used to model coupled human-water systems is to couple physically based models and system dynamics models. However, in many cases, this type of model coupling is labour-intensive and time-consuming, which can hinder its routine use in modeling and decision making.

Tinamït, a Python package, is an application programming interface (API) that provides definitions of functions and objects that simplify, in this case, coupled model building. Tinamït supports automatic SD model wrapping and coupling to specialized physically-based models, which makes it particularly useful for coupled human-water systems modelling. In this research, a connection between SWAT+ (a FORTRAN-based hydrological model) and the Tinamït API is established through model wrapping. This wrapping approach takes advantage of both the agility of sockets and the wide applicability of JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) to transmit data between FORTRAN and Python routines at runtime. Any model that runs in SWAT+ can now be automatically coupled to SD models through the Tinamït API, without the need for extensive programming, therefore facilitating wider application of coupled modelling techniques for integrated policy development and decision making in the field of coupled human-water systems.

How to cite: Harms, J. Z., Malard, J. J., and Adamowski, J. F.: Dynamic Coupling of SWAT+ with System Dynamics Models using Tinamït and a Socket Based Protocol, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6731, 2021.

EGU21-5686 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Application of the theory of planned behavior with agent-based modeling for sustainable management of vegetative filter strips

Prajna Kasargodu Anebagilu, Jörg Dietrich, Lisette Prado Stuardo, Bruno Morales, Etti Winter, and Jose Luis Arumi

An innovative socio-hydrological modeling framework for the development of environmental policies tailored to farmers' attitudes and economic interests is proposed with the inclusion of optimal environmental criteria. It focuses on modeling the complex relation of farmers, the environment, and the agricultural practices recommended by policy developers. An on-site survey of farmers is used to develop a behavior model based on a modified Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). An agent-based model (ABM) is coupled with an agro-hydrological model for vegetative filter strips (VFS) to create dynamics of the social and environmental system.

The farmers from the Larqui river basin, Chile took part in the survey to understand their standpoint on the use of VFS to reduce soil loss in their agricultural fields and protect water bodies. The farmers were categorized into perceptive, proactive, bounded rational and interactive agents based on their answers to the survey. This categorization along with decision rules, and utility functions of agricultural activities including the VFS implementation and management are used to develop an ABM. Partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is used to analyze the modified TPB of farmers. Behavioral morality, behavioral willingness, knowledge of farmers showed a significant effect on modeling the intention and behavior of farmers to have VFS in their land. Subjective norm was the only construct that was not significant. The results of the ABM validate with the survey of the farmers. It shows that the decision on the width of VFS is not solely dependent on the utility generated and the reduction in soil losses but also on the behavior of farmers. This behavioral socio-hydrological modeling framework is capable of supporting policy-makers in developing tailored environmental policies that might improve the acceptance of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers.

How to cite: Kasargodu Anebagilu, P., Dietrich, J., Prado Stuardo, L., Morales, B., Winter, E., and Arumi, J. L.: Application of the theory of planned behavior with agent-based modeling for sustainable management of vegetative filter strips, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5686, 2021.

Systems dynamics modelling is often used as a participatory modelling tool to model the long-term dynamics of socio-ecological systems, as well as to help in developing integrated policy decisions that take into account the unexpected and complex system behaviours that are often caused by the dynamic feedbacks between ecology and society. Actual use of these models in decision-making is, however, hindered by the frequent lack of high-quality temporal data on many key socioeconomic (and environmental) variables, which makes the application of traditional system dynamics model evaluation techniques difficult. This situation is particularly pronounced in the context of many Indigenous communities around the world, regions where improved access to decision support tools such as system dynamics modelling could be of particular use for supporting communities in their quest to make (and have implemented) their own resource management decisions. In the absence of rigorous quantification methods, however, these models are difficult to build and trust.

In this research, we present a novel methodology for calibrating hard-to-quantify relationships between socioeconomic variables of systems dynamics models. Based on hierarchical Bayesian inference, the methodology allows for the use of spatially explicit (but temporally poor) datasets to infer the quantitative, numerical relationships between socioeconomic variables, even when data in the precise region of interest is very scarce. We present, as a case study, a system dynamics model of small-scale agricultural systems and food security in two different regions of Guatemala (Tz'olöj Ya' and K'iche'), and analyse the impacts of different proposed policies in the face of socioeconomic shocks and water stress due to projected climate change. The hierarchical Bayesian inference calibration method allowed for the inference of key socioeconomic parameter values in a spatially explicit context to compensate for data scarcity, while spatial validation indicated which regions of the country the model was appropriate for.

Such a methodology, once incorporated into user-friendly system dynamics software, has the potential to facilitate participatory sociohydrological modelling even in quite data-scarce regions where modellers, up until now, have had to rely on educated guesses for the majority of the model's calibration.

How to cite: Malard, J., Adamowski, J., Tuy, H., and Melgar-Quiñonez, H.: Hierarchical Bayesian inference and spatial validation of socio-ecological system dynamics models: participatory modelling for Indigenous smallholder agriculture and food security in Guatemala, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6766, 2021.

EGU21-1672 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Development of scenarios for future emissions of chemicals from agricultural, industrial and urban systems

Poornima Nagesh, Hugo J. de boer, Stefan C. Dekker, and Detlef P. van Vuuren

Water is an essential resource for human life and the environment. The widespread use of chemicals in daily life has led to significant water quality concerns. During the production phase, the use phase as well as after use, (residues of) these chemicals can enter the environment and water systems. Furthermore, the use and production of chemicals are increasing rapidly, driven by mainly population growth, urbanisation and economic growth. Increased use leads to further emissions of chemicals to water, posing significant water quality concerns. Henceforth there is an urgent need to understand the linkage between society and production and consumption of chemicals to explore possible changes in water quality.

Socio-economic scenario analysis is a useful tool to investigate the long-term consequences of future change and mitigation options. While scenarios have been broadly applied to understand air pollution, this not yet the case for chemical pollution to surface waters. In this work, we propose a general framework to develop scenarios for the future emissions of chemicals to water by using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP). The framework follows the basic elements of the scenario development process by defining the current system, describe the changes in emissions with scenario drivers and elaboration to the future. The framework is then tested on a set of selected ‘example’ chemicals that represent broader chemical groups of pharmaceuticals (Ibuprofen and Diclofenac), pesticides (Terbuthylazine) and industrial chemicals (Cadmium and Di-ethyl phthalate). Chemical emissions to water over the past years were used to understand their yearly trends and patterns over the European countries. Lastly, the emission scenarios for chemicals for 2050 were developed by using SSP drivers from the IMAGE Integrated assessment model as an input to the empirical emission models. The three SSP scenarios: SSP1 ("Sustainability"), SSP2 ("Middle of the Road") and SSP3 ("Regional Rivalry") focusing on Europe were included. Additionally, the developed scenarios also describe mitigation efforts.

The results of emission scenarios displayed an increase in emissions up to 2050 for the exemplary chemicals in Western Europe for all three scenarios SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3. While the emissions of chemicals linearly decreased in Eastern Europe for the same period. SSP3 showed the highest emissions in 2050 except for cadmium emissions from wastewater treatment plants. The results showed that the framework helps in understanding the possible influence of socio-economic changes on use and emissions of chemicals which can be a part of future risk assessments. While the framework can be extended similarly to other pharmaceuticals and pesticides, it requires a detailed understanding of complex emission sources for industrial chemicals.

How to cite: Nagesh, P., J. de boer, H., C. Dekker, S., and P. van Vuuren, D.: Development of scenarios for future emissions of chemicals from agricultural, industrial and urban systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1672, 2021.

EGU21-6266 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

A Budyko-like framework for exploring the controls of long-term flood risk in coupled human-flood systems

Marlies H Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, and Günter Blöschl

Long term dynamics in human-flood systems differ due to differences in hydrological and societal characteristics. By contrasting and comparing different human-flood systems we increase our understanding of which characteristics lead to which dynamics, which might help to counteract unfavorable developments. We propose a framework for comparing human-flood systems analogous to the Budyko one for traditional catchment hydrology. While in the Budyko framework catchments are classified as either water limited or energy limited, in the framework proposed here the human-flood systems are classified as either hydrology limited or exposure limited. In analogy to the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration components of the Budyko space we formulate the components of the “flood risk space” as hydrological potential loss, manmade potential loss and actual flood loss. The framework is applied to four stylised theoretical systems, investigating how their position in the flood risk space may change under the influence of hydrological, technical and demographic changes. Results show that hydrological changes have the largest effect on a system’s position in the flood risk space: with an increasing skewness and CV systems become more hydrology limited. The framework’s value for comparing empirical case studies is demonstrated through an application to two case studies in Germany: Dresden on the Elbe and Cologne on the Rhine. The framework allows us to identify the differences in dynamics between the two case studies, as they are located in different areas of the flood risk space. The difference in dynamics between the Dresden and Cologne systems seems to be mostly caused by the hydrological parameters (i.e. the skewness) rather than the social parameters. The flood frequency distribution is more skewed in the case of the Elbe in Dresden than in the case of the Rhine in Cologne. Therefore, Dresden experiences more shocks to the system (i.e. unexpectedly large floods) than Cologne.

How to cite: Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., Kreibich, H., and Blöschl, G.: A Budyko-like framework for exploring the controls of long-term flood risk in coupled human-flood systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6266, 2021.

EGU21-3193 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Increased Socio-economic Vulnerability in the Floodplains of Brahmaputra Basin, India

Sukrati Gautam, Apoorva Singh, and Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya

Floods are a recurrent natural phenomenon in the Brahmaputra basin, India’s one of the major river basin. The government employed flood mitigation strategies that have mainly been focused on structural measures that involve the construction of dams, embankments, dykes, and anti-erosion structures. Consequently, the economic investments in Flood Protection Structures (FPS) have significantly increased over time. However, despite significant FPS investments, the socio-economic losses due to floods are reportedly intensifying. In this study on coupled human flood systems, our aim is to resolve this paradox through a stepwise methodology. Firstly, land use land cover (LULC) changes are investigated before and after the completion of 74 FPS units, constructed over the past two decades. The proximity to settlement used as a proxy measure of socio-economic characteristics shows a consistent land-use growth pattern. Secondly, a socio-vulnerability index (SoVI) is developed based on the population density, distance from the river, vegetation, soil type, and LULC changes. Furthermore, SoVI maps are developed by integrating the weighted maps of the above socio-economic factors. A significant increase in the socio-economic vulnerability is observed in the floodplains of Brahmaputra, possibly due to the provision of a false sense of security. This study, hence, establishes a causal relationship between the increase in social vulnerability index and the increased FPS investments. These results are expected to help the stakeholders to identify the critical characteristics that escalate the social vulnerability in the flood plains and thereby to strategize the investments in FPS.

How to cite: Gautam, S., Singh, A., and Dhanya, C. T.: Increased Socio-economic Vulnerability in the Floodplains of Brahmaputra Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3193, 2021.

EGU21-13225 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

A multiple streams analysis of drought policies in Ceará state, Brazil

Louise Cavalcante, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Art Dewulf, Pieter van Oel, and Francisco Souza Filho

Interactions between society and water are complex, socio-hydrological systems are influenced by policies, which rarely are a simple linear response with the aim of providing the most efficient solution. In drought contexts, a new layer of complexity is added, considering the different uncertainties involved, related to the rainfall season, or the duration of multi-year drought events. We utilized the Multiple Streams Approach (MSA) theory to answer the following question: how do multi-year droughts function as focusing events? Focusing events may trigger greater attention to problems and solutions because they increase the likelihood that more organized interests, including some that are influential and powerful, could advocate policy change. MSA seeks to explain how policy changes. It assumes the policy change happens when three separate streams interact: (1) the problem stream, involving the emergence or recognition of a problem by society; (2) the policy stream, containing policy ideas and alternatives generated by specialists, researchers, politicians, and social actors; and (3) the politics stream, referring to the political, administrative, and legislative context favorable or unfavorable to developing certain actions to overcome the problem. The justification to apply the MSA lenses in this is study is to understand the influences of multi-year drought events as a focusing event that triggered the process of policy change considering the subnational context of Ceará state in Brazil. In this study, the following methodological procedures were used: (a) historical overview of drought occurrence and the policy responses in Ceará; (b) data processing of hydrologic records (rainfall). We found three main different policy approaches to drought impacts: reactive, proactive, and drought preparedness policies. We found in some cases that multi-year droughts served as focusing events that opened windows of opportunities, triggering policy response changes, such as, collaboration, new problem framing, and increased political attention. Our findings have implications for the socio-hydrology field, as there is still significant scope for increasing the understanding of the influences of public policies in the context of coupled-humans systems, especially in the context of drought. 

How to cite: Cavalcante, L., Ribeiro Neto, G., Dewulf, A., van Oel, P., and Souza Filho, F.: A multiple streams analysis of drought policies in Ceará state, Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13225, 2021.

EGU21-14975 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

A meta-analysis of the drivers of irrigation in the West African Sudan Savanna

Silvia Schrötter, Jed Kaplan, Matthias Schmidt, and Peter Fiener

Irrigation is vital for humans, critical in the management of land and water resources, and functions as an important environmental forcing. While irrigation systems are largely framed by environmental conditions, actual irrigation activities are determined by human decision-making. The types of irrigation systems can vary in technology and management and in turn influence water resources and the hydrological cycle differently. To date we lack an understanding of the drivers of establishing different irrigation systems in the Sudanian Savanna ecoregion of West Africa, and how land use decisions are made at the farm level. Insights on decision-making in water management contribute to the understanding of anthropogenic impacts on human-water systems and can help to identify strategies to adapt to ongoing and future risks. This paper aims to identify the heterogeneity of irrigation systems in our study region, and their drivers, as well as provide a qualitative assessment of their sustainability. Here we systematically analyze literature published between 1980 and 2020 which provide evidence of irrigation activities in the study area, we selected 188 publications documenting more than 100 cases of irrigation. For each study we identify each type of irrigation system, as defined by the water source, lifting and distribution type. We then clustered each case into ‘driver types’ based on external conditions, required resources, irrigation season, proximate causes and utilization. To assess the sustainability we identified environmental, governance, social and economic variables which we then coded on a 5-point Likert-scale. Our results show that irrigation systems in the West African Sudan Savanna are highly diversified in terms of techniques and organization, but that drivers are relatively similar. The decision making and management within an irrigation system is strongly influenced by its organizational structure. The type of technology depends on the available capital, and again impacts the efficiency, longevity and environmental impact of irrigation systems. We observed that economic factors, the access to water sources and markets, as well as restricted female technology adoption constrain the potential of existing irrigation schemes. The main causes to irrigate are to provide food security and raise more income in order to adapt to climate change and to increasing demands due to population growth. We detected that the cases are largely located in or in the vicinity of formal irrigation schemes. There is an increase in irrigation schemes in the study region over time, however, we found little information on why irrigation is not more widely adapted compared to similar ecoregions such as southern India, despite the growing demand. In respect of India, irrigation in West Africa is relatively new. We conclude that further research on organizational structures, and financial support can contribute to a sustainable expansion of irrigation in the West African Sudan Savanna.

How to cite: Schrötter, S., Kaplan, J., Schmidt, M., and Fiener, P.: A meta-analysis of the drivers of irrigation in the West African Sudan Savanna, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14975, 2021.

EGU21-90 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Longitudinal Survey Data Call For Diversifying Temporal Dynamics In Modelling Human-Water Systems

Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Numerous scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties of coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human-water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data times series, that may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data, and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (one year). Perceived preparedness also did not change, but we observed differences related to damage severity. More precisely, preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damages during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches constitute robust data that can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. Moreover, we posit that there is a need to improve socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human-water systems in order to better support risk management.

How to cite: Mondino, E., Scolobig, A., Borga, M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Longitudinal Survey Data Call For Diversifying Temporal Dynamics In Modelling Human-Water Systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-90, 2021.

EGU21-13540 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Payment for Ecosystem Services policies in Peru: assessing the social and ecological dimensions of water services in the upper Santa River basin 

Rosa María Dextre, María Luisa Eschenhagen, Mirtha Camacho, Sally Rangecroft, Laurence Couldrick, Caroline Clason, and Sergio Morera

Increasing pressures on ecosystems in the Latin American region as well as the adoption of multilateral conservation commitments have led to the implementation of instruments that are economic in nature but oriented towards the recovery, conservation, and functioning of ecosystems. The increasing adoption of schemes such as payment for ecosystem services (PES) has emerged as multilateral strategies to address water security problems in the mountain regions of Perú. However, their design and implementation can face many barriers when the policy is translated into practice in a local context. Socio-economic processes and hydro-climatic factors are affecting the capacity of the ecosystems of the glaciated Cordillera Blanca (Peruvian Andes) to provide water services, in terms of both, quality and quantity, to the main users of the Santa River basin. This study thus aims to analyze how the hydro-social relations affect, and are affected by, the introduction of water-related PES in the Quillcay sub-basin, one of the most populated sub-basin along the Santa River basin. The water metabolism approach was used to characterize water as a service produced by ecological systems (water as an ecological fund) and co-produced by social systems (water as a social flow). For this purpose, a classification of the different social and ecological uses and meanings of water was used, as well as the role of the different actors involved. 

Based on the combination of primary data, both from an urban citizens survey (Huaraz) and semi-structured interviews with different actors, and from secondary sources, we present evidence that the metabolic pattern of water in the upper Santa basin is impacted not only by the glacial meltwater and rainwater regime but also by political, economic and cultural power relations over water. Thus, the implementation of a PES policy in the upper Santa basin affects and is affected by, ecological and social dimensions of water. In the ecological dimension, glacial retreat makes the design of a water-related PES more complex. In the social dimension, some socio-political processes, such as the lack of experience and the limited technical and financial capacity of public water management institutions to carry out these processes, as well as the lack of political will of regional and local authorities to promote them, are affecting the way these PES schemes are implemented. Along with these institutional bottlenecks, local socio-cultural processes related to a lack of interest in participating and demanding to participate in these decision-making processes could result in the design of a mechanism in which not all stakeholders benefit equally. This raises the need to recognize the multi-dimensional nature of water in the design and implementation of policies, and the importance of identifying processes and barriers which affect the success of these policies.

How to cite: Dextre, R. M., Eschenhagen, M. L., Camacho, M., Rangecroft, S., Couldrick, L., Clason, C., and Morera, S.: Payment for Ecosystem Services policies in Peru: assessing the social and ecological dimensions of water services in the upper Santa River basin , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13540, 2021.

As the longest river in Asia, the Yangtze River has shown its impact on human societies with floods recorded since 12th century. In 1931, the Yangtze River has manifested its force again with one of the deadliest floods ever recorded in Chinese history, causing 422,499 casualties, damages to more than 25.2 million people and 58.7 billion m2 farmland. The impact of the 1931 flood, resulting in the increment of rice price, has remained till 1933. Researches on the 1931 flood damage has shown its direct causation including political corruption, technical backwardness, and meteorological abnormality. However, in a long-term period, it is still unclear if the change of society has intensified the vulnerability of flood or some hydrological extremes has accelerated the social transformations. Here we propose a conceptual socio-hydrological framework within which the mutual influence between society and water system is analyzed. To address the issue of data scarcity, we applied the Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM) to reconstruct the hydrological conditions in the early 20th century of China, based on which the potential rice production was estimated. With the reconstructed data, we found that the change of the social structure of villages aggravated the vulnerability of agricultural production towards natural hazards, and hydrological extremes speeded-up such structure change. Our results demonstrate how reconstructed data is likely to help comprehend a socio-hydrology system under a conceptual framework, shedding light on the inner correlation of a pre-industrial society like the early 20th century of China. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more sophisticated socio-hydrological models, which will likely to be applicable to many other regions and times.

How to cite: Liu, C., Kawasaki, A., and Shiroyama, T.: The interaction between society changes and hydrological extremes: the case of Yangtze River Basin, before and after the 1931 flood, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2482, 2021.

EGU21-1472 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Assessing Water Security in Central Asia through a Delphi Approach

Aliya Assubayeva, Stefanos Xenarios, Albina Li, and Siamac Fazli

Water security in Central Asia (CA) plays a vital role because of transboundary river systems and interconnected infrastructure assets. Each CA country has differently contextualized the water security notion to serve national priorities and needs. Various scholars have studied and interpreted the concept of water security in CA through economic, environmental, social, and technical perspectives. Yet however, there is very little information on the perceptions of policymakers and water professionals that are directly engaged with the water policy discourse in the CA region.

In this regard, we attempted to identify policy makers and water professionals' views on water management and security aspects in CA.  A Delphi method was introduced through a two-round survey to decision-makers and water professionals to assess the rate of agreement on different water security dimensions that have been identified through a thorough literature review.

Namely, the dimensions associated with urban & household facilities, economic activities, environmental aspects and natural hazards were assessed, whereas different attributes related to each dimension were also considered. The first survey round explored the rate of agreement in the following six different sections: the proposed water security dimensions (1) and attributes (2) in CA; historical trends and dynamics of each dimension (3) and the implications on a policy level (4); the national priorities for each country (5); and the effectiveness of mechanisms dealing with regional water security issues (6).  The second round synopsized the initial findings by exploring whether a higher agreement rate was attained in each of the sections mentioned above.

 Clustering analysis was applied to better identify the agreement rate and assess decision-makers and water professionals' behavioral patterns within the two-survey rounds.  A number of clustering techniques were tested out. Methods such as K-Medoids, Spectral, Hierarchical, and Agglomerative clustering, as well as the Affinity Propagation, were applied. Hyperparameters were chosen based on the observations of how well the clusters are formed, i.e., how similar the responses are within the cluster and how much they differ from other clusters. The clustering was applied to the whole range of responses, as well as separately on different sections of the surveys.  

The findings indicate that the clustering of all six parts did not clearly define separation and distinctive agreement rates in the first survey round. However, when the clustering was performed within specific sections, e.g., the national priorities in each country, behavioral patterns were revealed among respondents. The clustering trends among sections became more apparent in the second survey round.  Our preliminary findings indicate that a set of socio-demographic and professional-related features of the participants are aligned with the patterns of the clustering outcomes on water security priorities in CA. The study findings could identify the major challenges that policymakers and water professionals face being mutually addressed by improving water security dialogue in the CA region.

How to cite: Assubayeva, A., Xenarios, S., Li, A., and Fazli, S.: Assessing Water Security in Central Asia through a Delphi Approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1472, 2021.

EGU21-493 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Socio-Hydrogeology: uncovering the hidden connections within the Human-Groundwater Cycle

Viviana Re, Paul Hynds, Theresa Frommen, and Shrikant Limaye

Socio-hydrogeology has been recently proposed as a new approach in the field of human-water research, focusing on the assessment of the reciprocity between people and groundwater. Notwithstanding some obvious similarities with socio-hydrology, there are notable, and indeed important differences; while socio-hydrology aims to investigate and understand the dynamic interactions and feedbacks between (surface)water and people, due to the more private and local nature of groundwater in many instances, socio-hydrogeology seeks to understand individuals and communities as a primary source, pathway and receptor for potable groundwater supplies, including the role of (local) knowledge, beliefs, risk perception, tradition/history, and consumption. In essence, the “socio” in socio-hydrology might be said to represent society, while its counterpart within socio-hydrogeology embodies sociology, including social, cognitive, behavioural and socio-epidemiological science. Moreover, while socio-hydrology tends towards examination of human-water interactions at relatively larges scales via coupled modelling, socio-hydrogeology is often focused at a significantly smaller scale (e.g. individual household or community supplies), and as such, employs a wide range of mixed methods, including modelling, albeit to a lesser degree. Being at its early development stage, the discipline is still being defined and formalized. Nevertheless, several researchers are currently implementing this approach worldwide.

By presenting a comparative analysis of the approaches and outcomes from several socio-hydrogeological studies undertaken across a range of socio-demographic and climatic regions including Canada, Italy, India, Ireland, Myanmar and Tunisia, this presentation will highlight the benefits and shortcomings of going beyond classical hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical investigations targeted to assess the impact of human activities on groundwater quality and quantity, and indeed, the effects of these impacts on associated individuals and communities (i.e. humans frequently represent the issue, the receptor and the solution). By shedding light on the added value of understanding the cause-effect relations between people and the hidden component of the water cycle (e.g. to jointly assess how scarce and polluted groundwater affect human/social wellbeing), socio-hydrogeology can provide evidence-based solutions to regionally bespoke problems. Similarly, otherwise neglected local or regional information can add value to scientific outcomes and contribute to foster new groundwater management actions tailored on the needs of local populations as well as on the overall achievement of long-term sustainability. Socio-hydrogeology can therefore provide new insights useful for socio-hydrological modelling, and, together, they can effectively underpin successful Integrated Water Resources Management plans at local and regional scale. Perhaps most importantly, it is hoped that by initiating discussion between practitioners of both sub-disciplines, experiences, expertise and perspectives can be shared and employed (e.g. more “technical” modelling within socio-hydrogeology, increased integration of “non-expert” knowledge within socio-hydrology) in order to bolster both areas of study, with an overarching objective of protecting the entire hydrological cycle, and the people supplied and impacted by it.

How to cite: Re, V., Hynds, P., Frommen, T., and Limaye, S.: Socio-Hydrogeology: uncovering the hidden connections within the Human-Groundwater Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-493, 2021.

EGU21-8132 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Linking stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways for policy making in human-water systems

Mohammadreza Alizadeh, Jan Adamowski, and Azhar Inam

Climate change has caused many environmental problems, as well as water and food insecurity, and health and social impacts in many parts of the world, and especially in the world’s vulnerable regions such as developing countries. Studies have demonstrated the impacts of socio-economic and climate changes and how they result in water and environmental problems at global and regional scales. Socio-economic variation and climatic change influence the dynamic interaction of human and water systems, and our ability to address environmental problems at sub-regional scales. From this perspective, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as a form of alternative development scenarios, were recently introduced to help decision-makers to cope with uncertain futures and improve their policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To take advantage of SSP scenarios for policy guidance at regional and national scales, it is necessary to explore the socio-economic feedbacks and water management policies informed by different sub-regional knowledge sharing through stakeholders’ narratives. In this study, we link SSP scenarios developed with regional stakeholders using a coupled socio-economic and environmental model, in conjunction with stakeholder-generated narrative storylines for a sub-region of Pakistan. The framework allows for linking corresponding scenarios across different uncertainty levels to improve regional scale policy making, while providing knowledge regarding the future of human-water systems under a range of plausible future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

How to cite: Alizadeh, M., Adamowski, J., and Inam, A.: Linking stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways for policy making in human-water systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8132, 2021.

EGU21-1553 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Losing faith

Richard Grünwald, Wenling Wang, and Yan Feng

The presented session examines the politicization of hydrological science and discusses the current implications for misinterpreting the hydrological data that undermine trust in science. As a result of growing medialization of hydrological studies and simplifying the research conclusions for the wide public, it is more difficult for hydrologists to keep scientific integrity and not fall into the realm of subjectivism. By close analysis of two hydrological studies (Pöyry Report and Eyes on Earth Studies), we noticed that (1) research conclusions may be tailored to political demand, (2) intentionally overlook basic theoretical-methodological research standards, and (3) negatively influenced by social media, especially when the research conclusions do not correspond with scientific reviews nor official speech acts from state authorities. On the other hand, we also found several unintended consequences that make politicization science useful and even positive, especially in terms of changing the social perception of water or deepening the water cooperation in hydrological monitoring which still remain sensitive political issues in many corners of the world.

By drawing on the socio-hydrology and critical hydropolitical theories, this session (i) explores the current challenges for interpreting the hydrological studies, (ii) clarify the techniques how to prevent misinterpretation of the hydrological data, and (iii) demonstrate the politicization of the hydrological science on two micro-case studies within the Mekong River Basin that raise controversies among scientists and potential disputes among states. While the Pöyry Report conclusions served as a political tool to justify the construction of Xayaburi hydropower dam in Laos regardless the opposition of downstream countries, the Eyes on Earth Study was designed to undermine mutual trust among Mekong states and damage the credibility of other hydrological studies that do not share the same opinion on hydrological changes in the Mekong River Basin. The data were retrieved from the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation and Conflict Database (LMCCD) and double-checked with the literature review of the official documents and media sources related to Pöyry Report and Eyes on Earth Study.

How to cite: Grünwald, R., Wang, W., and Feng, Y.: Losing faith, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1553, 2021.

EGU21-6553 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.2

Potential of sociohydrology for studying natural disasters

Franciele Maria Vanelli and Masato Kobiyama

Natural disasters refer to disruptions of the society’s functioning as result of negative interactions between natural hazards and social organization. Meanwhile, sociohydrology is dedicated to understanding the coupled human-water systems feedbacks. Both natural disaster studies and sociohydrology focus on understanding bidirectional interactions between environmental and social aspects, which is characterized by a dichotomous thinking pattern. In this context, natural disaster studies and sociohydrology have many parallels. In the present research, we conducted an exploratory research from two central arguments: (i) sociohydrology development can contribute to understanding how to disaster risk reduction by converting negative impacts into a harmonious coexistence between natural and social interactions; and (ii) water is relevant to all types of natural disasters in a direct or an indirect manner and is also fundamental in disaster response. Advances in knowledge about bidirectional interactions between environmental and social aspects overcoming dichotomous thinking pattern can update the sociohydrology development and the concepts commonly applied to natural disaster and risk reduction. We propose that any local community should use the school catchment concept that refers to any experimental catchment which serves for scientific researches and environmental education activities. The partnership between natural and social scientists and society is a challenge. Thus, school catchment construction and use can assist to overcome dichotomous thinking such as natural × social aspects, quantitative × qualitative analyses, systematic × non-systematic data, global × local spatial scales, and structural × non-structural measures. Hence, sociohydrology can support the integrated management of water resources and natural disasters and risks, contributing to achieving the Sendai Framework goals and the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations Agenda 2030. On the other hand, natural disaster studies can contribute to the interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary development of sociohydrology. Therefore, we conclude that sociohydrology has the potential, not yet explored, for contributing to natural disaster studies and vice and versa.

How to cite: Vanelli, F. M. and Kobiyama, M.: Potential of sociohydrology for studying natural disasters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6553, 2021.

HS5.1.3 – Impacts of land use and land cover changes on hydrological processes and water management

EGU21-14917 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3 | Highlight

Disentangling the environmental impacts in increasing global food production

Maria Cristina Rulli and Paolo D'Odorico

The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of crops production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and – more recently – new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for the natural resources needed for crop production, that is land and water so increasing the environmental burden. Solutions to feed the planet often point to agricultural intensification (i.e., increase in crop yields) as the approach that could meet the increasing human demand with the smaller environmental impacts. Indeed, intensification avoids the land use change (e.g., deforestation), habitat destruction, and increase in CO2 emissions that would result from an expansion of cultivated land (or “extensification”). The impacts of intensification on freshwater resources, rural livelihoods, and equity, however, is often ignored. At the same time, agricultural expansion has important externalities that go beyond biodiversity losses or greenhouse gas emissions, with important ramifications to human and planetary health. We use a suite of model simulations and data analyses to evaluate the hydrological and nutritional impacts of agricultural intensification vs expansion and discuss their different suitability large scale farming vs smallholders.

How to cite: Rulli, M. C. and D'Odorico, P.: Disentangling the environmental impacts in increasing global food production, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14917, 2021.

EGU21-16031 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Fire impact on water and carbon fluxes in a wild olive-based ecosystem

Matteo Curreli, Nicola Montaldo, Roberto Corona, and Gabriel G. Katul

Fire, harvesting and beetles attacks are important disturbances for the forested ecosystems. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the disturbances on water and carbon fluxes using a eddy‐covariance (EC) – based tower in a wild-olive forest.

The study has been performed at the Orroli site, Sardinia (Italy), which is an experimental site for the FLUXMED project of the Water Joint Programming Initiative. From 2003, a 10 m micrometeorological tower equipped with eddy-covariance system has been used to measuring water, carbon and energy surface fluxes, as well as key state variables (e.g. leaf and soil skin temperature, radiations, air humidity and wind velocity).

The landscape is covered by patchy vegetation: wild olives trees in clumps and herbaceous species, drying to bare soil in late spring. The climate is Mediterranean maritime with long droughts from May to October, and rainy period is concentrated in the autumn and winter months. In this ecosystem water uptake by olive’s roots, from underlying substrate to the shallow soil layer, allow woody vegetation and grass to remain physiologically active during dry conditions.

In summer 2017, which was a very dry season, an extended fire affected the forested area, impacting the north – west footprint of the tower, with consequences also to the close trees due to beetle attack, probably related to the sensitive conditions of the trees after the drought.

We compared pre-disturbance with post-disturbance land surface fluxes. Both fire and beetle attack, altered the partitioning of available energy to lE and H, evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon assimilation. Results show a reduction of evapotranspiration and carbon assimilation during the growing season. Differently, in autumn and winter the difference between pre-disturbance and post-disturbance was negligible due to low physiological activities of vegetation.

How to cite: Curreli, M., Montaldo, N., Corona, R., and Katul, G. G.: Fire impact on water and carbon fluxes in a wild olive-based ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16031, 2021.

EGU21-3957 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Dominant drivers of runoff in a slash-and-burn affected catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar

Bob W. Zwartendijk, H.J. (Ilja) van Meerveld, Ryan J. Teuling, Chandra P. Ghimire, and L. Adrian Bruijnzeel

In many tropical areas slash-and-burn agriculture is an important driver of forest loss. In areas where slash-and-burn agriculture has been practiced for decades, land cover is typically a mosaic of patches of remnant forest, fields under active cultivation, fallows in various stages of regrowth (ranging from young shrub to semi-mature), and degraded fire-climax grasslands. Although runoff generation mechanisms are expected to be different for these different patches, little quantitative information is available in this regard, particularly at the catchment scale and over longer time-scales (i.e., multiple slash-and-burn cycles).

We re-instrumented a 31 ha catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar, where slash-and-burn agriculture has been practiced for more than 70 years in 2015; it had been monitored between 1963 and 1972 as well1. We measured streamflow at two locations and overland flow and soil moisture for four hillside plots (0.05 – 1.93 ha): one plot under repeatedly coppiced and burned Eucalyptus and three plots under young shrub and tree fallows. One of the plots underwent rudimentary terracing in the past. We analysed the rainfall-runoff dynamics for 50 rainfall events (median 12 mm, maximum 71 mm).

For 60% of the events, the stormflow coefficient (minimum contributing area) was <3%, which is the proportion of valley-bottom wetlands and rice paddies in the catchment. Stable isotope sampling for five storm runoff events indicate a maximum total event-water contribution of 16%. However, instantaneous event-water contributions were as high as 66%. The hillside plot runoff response was dominated by saturation-excess overland flow and showed strong threshold behaviour in terms of the antecedent soil moisture storage in the upper 30 cm of the soil plus the event total rainfall amount (ASI + P). Average threshold values for overland flow occurrence ranged from 87 mm for the coppiced Eucalyptus to 137 mm for the young fallow plots (regardless of terrace presence). Stormflow also increased after an ASI+P-threshold was exceeded (100 mm based on the soil moisture sensors for the Eucalyptus plot and 150 mm for the sensors at the tree fallow plots).

These results indicate an increased hydrological connectivity between hillslopes and valley bottom under wetter conditions and that stormflow in the study catchment is strongly affected by variations in seasonal rainfall. The results will be used to validate a hydrological model to determine the net effect of concurrent changes in soil infiltrability and vegetation water use associated with forest loss and recovery on stormflow totals and the seasonal flow regime.

1Bailly, C., de Coignac, G.B., Malvos, C., Ningre, J.M., and Sarrailh, J.M. (1974). Étude de l'influence du couvert naturel et de ses modifications á Madagascar. Expérimentations en bassins versants élémentaires. Cahiers Scientifiques, 4. Centre Scientifique Forestier Tropical, Nogent-sur-Marne, France, 114 pp.

How to cite: Zwartendijk, B. W., van Meerveld, H. J. (., Teuling, R. J., Ghimire, C. P., and Bruijnzeel, L. A.: Dominant drivers of runoff in a slash-and-burn affected catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3957, 2021.

EGU21-8860 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Understanding the hydrologic impacts of wildfire management strategies using MIKE SHE

Jake Kurzweil, Reza Abdi, Kerry Metlen, and Terri Hogue

Proactive thinning and controlled burning are being utilized to mitigate the effects of severe wildfires across the globe. Hydrologic function of watersheds after wildfire and clear-cutting has been well documented, however the impacts of pre-fire mitigation strategies are less understood. The current study utilized two mixed precipitation watersheds, which supply drinking water for Ashland, Oregon, USA, to assess the effectiveness of restoration and fuel reduction strategies on hydrologic change. This Mediterranean dry mixed conifer-hardwood habitat is unique as it sits in the convergence point of several ecoregions, providing significant biological diversity for the region. Hydrologic response from prior mitigation strategies was evaluated using max monthly flow, mean annual 7-day low flow, runoff ratios, timing and total water yield. Results show an average decrease of 26% and 24% in total annual water yields in the West and East basins of the Ashland watershed, respectively. Analysis also showed that 66% (West) and 72% (East) of the changes in water yield were due to annual variations in precipitation, demonstrating that land cover changes were not the dominant driver of hydrologic change. Current work includes identifying the thresholds at which stand density reduction leads to an increase in annual surface water yield. The integrated surface and groundwater model, MIKE SHE, is developed and used to simulate a range of forest fire mitigation efforts based upon representative parameters in the model, including leaf area index. Findings will then be expanded to include stand density index for better interpretation of our findings to make recommendations for local and regional forest managers. Ultimately, results will help inform future implementation of forest restoration and climate adaptation at larger scales.

How to cite: Kurzweil, J., Abdi, R., Metlen, K., and Hogue, T.: Understanding the hydrologic impacts of wildfire management strategies using MIKE SHE, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8860, 2021.

EGU21-8854 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

What if the best option for managing burnt forest areas was not managing them at all? A modelling approach to evaluate different post-fire management scenarios 

Marta Basso, Martinho Martins, Dalila Serpa, Jacob Keizer, and Diana Vieira

Scars left by wildfires are easily noticeable in the Mediterranean landscape, turning these events a major issue for forest management. Like any wound, even those left by fires must be treated to properly regenerate.

In a burned area the vegetation cover is often destroyed by the fire, leaving the soil unprotected and vulnerable to erosion. The alterations of soil properties induced by fires lead to an increase in surface runoff, promoting the detachment of sediments and consequently endangering the water quality of downstream aquatic systems. If left unmanaged, the spontaneous regeneration of vegetation will eventually cover the affected area, restoring its natural hydrological cycle. After a wildfire, in Portugal, following an economical based perspective, the burned areas are normally reforested with selected plants species, namely Eucalypt and Maritime Pine, not infrequently by resorting to the implementation of bench terraces.

To define the best management strategy to adopt after a fire, the scientific community is continuously assessing the effects of these forestry practices on soils and the downstream water bodies. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate three different post-fire land management scenarios for a small catchment (21.9 ha) in central Portugal. The choice of this basin relates to the implementation of terraces to create a eucalyptus forest production area, 6 months after a fire burned the catchment completely. The model was calibrated for streamflow and water quality at the catchment outlet, both for the short post-fire period and the following eucalyptus cycle. In this study two post-fire scenarios were created, one with the recovery of the vegetation, and another in which a highly effective erosion mitigation measure (mulching) was applied to the high and moderate fire severity burned areas. The third scenario corresponded to the implementation of the terraces and the actual eucalyptus cycle.

Both the mulch application and the eucalyptus cycle scenario showed an important reduction in soil loss and sediment transport when compared with the post-fire spontaneous recovery scenario. A smaller reduction in the total runoff, as well as a negligible change in total flow, was found in the mulching scenario when compared with the spontaneous recovery one. Despite the eucalyptus cycle presented the highest flow discharge for the overall period, it presents smaller discharge peaks when compared with the two post-fire management scenarios.

How to cite: Basso, M., Martins, M., Serpa, D., Keizer, J., and Vieira, D.: What if the best option for managing burnt forest areas was not managing them at all? A modelling approach to evaluate different post-fire management scenarios , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8854, 2021.

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change is widely recognised as one of the most important factors impacting river basin hydrology.  It is therefore imperative that the hydrological impacts of various LULC changes are considered for effective flood management strategies and future infrastructure decisions within a catchment.  The Soil and Water assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used extensively to assess the hydrological impacts of LULC change.  Areas with assumed homogeneous hydrologic properties, based on their LULC, soil type and slope, make up the basic computational units of SWAT known as the Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs).  LULC changes in a catchment are typically modelled by SWAT through alterations to the input files that define the properties of these HRUs.  However, to our knowledge at least, the process of making such changes to the SWAT input files is often cumbersome and non-intuitive.  This affects the useability of SWAT as a decision support tool amongst a wider pool of applied users (e.g., engineering teams in environmental regulatory agencies and local authorities).  In this study, we seek to address this issue by developing a user-friendly toolkit that will: (1) allow the end user to specify, through a Graphical User Interface (GUI), various types of LULC changes at multiple locations within their study catchment, (2) run the SWAT+ model (the latest version of SWAT) with the specified LULC changes, and (3) enable interactive visualisation of the different SWAT+ output variables to quantify the hydrological impacts of these scenarios.  Importantly, our toolkit does not require the end user to have any operational knowledge of the SWAT+ model to use it as a decision support tool.  Our toolkit will be trialled at 15 catchments in Gwynedd county, Wales, which has experienced multiple occurrences of high flood events, and consequent economic damage, in the recent past.  We anticipate this toolkit to be a valuable addition to the decision-making processes of Gwynedd County Council for the planning and development of future flood alleviation schemes as well as other infrastructure projects.

How to cite: Rigby, A., Patil, S., and Ritsos, P.: A novel toolkit to streamline Land Use Land Cover change assessment in the SWAT+ model to enhance flood management and infrastructure decisions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4139, 2021.

EGU21-13249 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Sensitivity analysis of surface runoff parameters for hydrological modeling of periurban ungauged basin  

Irene Di Cicco, Carlo Giudicianni, Armando Di Nardo, and Roberto Greco

Rapid human-induced changes, such as climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, are putting enormous stress on water resources. An accurate estimate of available water resources is a prerequisite for sustainable water resources planning and management. For gauged basins, historical records of hydrological observations are available, but for ungauged basins, the assessment of water availability is a challenging task. Therefore, the major focus of studies in ungauged basins is the development of appropriate tools that can accurately quantify hydrologic responses under various land use and climatic conditions. The reduction of the number of unknown parameters to be estimated is a key aspect in the development of hydrological models for ungauged basins.

This work is part of these issues and proposes an approach to reduce the complexity of hydrological models that include substantial uncertainties about the input data, initial and boundary conditions, model structure and parameters, owing to lack of data (i.e. for ungauged basins) and poor knowledge of hydrological response mechanisms. The case study of a basin of the District of Licola, located in the territory of the municipality of Giugliano, a city near Naples (southern Italy) is analyzed. Originally devoted to agriculture and grazing, it has been affected in the last decades by intense urbanization, which caused an increase in the impermeability of the soil cover. The increase in residential, commercial and production buildings has changed the functioning of the drainage network canals, compared to the original conditions, causing an increase in the frequency of flooding in the area. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWMM is adopted, which allows the subdivision of the basin in sub-basins according to land use and soil data.

Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is an effective approach to model simplification, providing an assessment of how much each input / parameter contributes to the output uncertainty. In general, SA is an essential part of model development, reducing uncertainties that have negative effects on the accuracy and reliability of simulated results. Specifically, in this study the SA is carried out with a method based on the decomposition of the variance of the peak flow and runoff volume, to quantitatively evaluate the contributions of single uncertain inputs/parameters that characterize the surface runoff with respect to different rainfall events, for both pervious and impervious areas. To this aim, the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is implemented. This method allows quantifying not only the “main effect” of variance, but also provides the Total Sensitivity Indices (TSI), defined as the sum of all the sensitivity indices for each parameter (including the effects of the interaction with other uncertain parameters).

The research objectives aims at: (i) increased understanding of the relationships between input and output variables in a complex hydrological system; (ii) reduction of model uncertainty, through the identification of input parameters mostly contributing to output variability and should therefore be the focus of sensitivity analysis; (iii) model simplification, fixing  the values of input parameters that have little effect on the output, and identifying and removing redundant parts of the model structure.

How to cite: Di Cicco, I., Giudicianni, C., Di Nardo, A., and Greco, R.: Sensitivity analysis of surface runoff parameters for hydrological modeling of periurban ungauged basin  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13249, 2021.

EGU21-7229 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Tropical Peatland Water Balance under Land Cover Change in Padang Island, Indonesia

Adibtya Asyhari, Sofyan Kurnianto, Yogi Suardiwerianto, Rahila Junika Tanjungsari, Muhammad Fikky Hidayat, Muhammad Iman Faisal Harahap, Sahat Manimbo Marpaung, Yuandanis Wahyu Salam, and Chandra Shekhar Deshmukh

Changes in hydrological regime associated with land cover change may result in crucial implications to tropical peatland landscape since hydrology strongly controls peatland geomorphology, ecology, and biogeochemical cycle. Therefore, improved understanding of the land cover change impacts to the water balance is of significant importance in order to formulate responsible peatland management strategies. In this study, we investigated the water balance under historical land cover change within Padang Island, Indonesia, an ombrotropic tropical peatland landscape with heterogeneous land covers. For this purpose, we established a model setup using a coupled MIKE SHE and MIKE Hydro River. The model was calibrated and validated against comprehensive data set from field measurements. Land cover change impacts were evaluated by comparing the water balance under current and past condition. The past land cover distribution was derived from historical satellite imagery analysis covering the period of 25 years before the current condition. Meanwhile, the past topography data was generated following long-term subsidence monitoring data. Here, we will present the impacts of land cover change to water balance at the landscape level and their implications for management of tropical peatlands.

How to cite: Asyhari, A., Kurnianto, S., Suardiwerianto, Y., Tanjungsari, R. J., Hidayat, M. F., Harahap, M. I. F., Marpaung, S. M., Salam, Y. W., and Deshmukh, C. S.: Tropical Peatland Water Balance under Land Cover Change in Padang Island, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7229, 2021.

EGU21-12496 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

SOL40: forty years of simulations under a climate and land use change scenario 

Alessandro Ceppi, Enrico Gambini, Gabriele Lombardi, Giovanni Ravazzani, and Marco Mancini

Nowadays, one major issue concerns the land-use change due to urban developments that alters the basin response to meteorological events. With less storage capacity and more rapid runoff, urban river basins rise more quickly during storms and have higher peak discharge rates than rural catchments.

An exemplary case of this situation is the city of Milan and its whole territory that extends towards north that collects meteoric precipitation, through the Seveso, Olona and Lambro (SOL) rivers plus a number of minor tributaries for a total drainage surface of about 1300 km2.

In order to assess the impact of anthropogenic development on urban catchment scale hydrology, a reanalysis of 40 years of simulations has been carried out with the Curve Number (CN) map based on current land use, and compared to simulations with the CN maps derived using past land use.

A coupled hydro-meteorological system which comprises the physically based rainfall-runoff hydrological model FEST-WB, developed by the Politecnico di Milano and the ERA5-Land hourly dataset from 1981 to present, provided by ECMWF under the framework of Copernicus Climate Change Service Programme has been built.

The study (named as SOL40) exactly analyses 40-years trends of the main meteorological (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and hydrological variables (soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff) over the SOL area, and try to quantify and separate the impact of land use change from the climate change scenario.

How to cite: Ceppi, A., Gambini, E., Lombardi, G., Ravazzani, G., and Mancini, M.: SOL40: forty years of simulations under a climate and land use change scenario , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12496, 2021.

Climate and land-use change have altered the regional hydrological cycle. As a result, the mean summer monsoon rainfall has decreased by 10 % over central India during 1950-2015. This study evaluates the combined effect of climate and land-use change on the hydrological response of the upper Betwa River basin in Central India. We use Landsat satellite images from 1990 to 2018 to compute the changes in various land-use types; waterbody, built-up, forest, agriculture, and open land. In the past two decades, we found that the water body, built-up, and cropland have increased by 63 %, 65 %, and 3 %, respectively. However, forest and open land have decreased by 16 % and 23 %. Further, we observed a significant increase in annual average temperature and a decrease in the mean rainfall in the study area during 1980-2018.

We then coupled the land-use change with weather parameters (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity) and setup the SWAT (Soil and water assessment tool) model to simulate the hydrological responses in the catchment. We have run this model for two different time steps, 1980-2000 and 1998-2018, using the land-use of 1990 and 2018. Calibration and validation are performed for (1991-1994, 2000-2004) and (1995-1998, 2005-2008) respectively using SUFI-2 method. Our results show that the surface runoff and percolation decreased by -21 and -9 %, whereas evapotranspiration increased by 3 % in the upper Betwa River basin during 2001-2018. A decrease in rainfall, runoff, and percolation will have considerable implications on regional water security.

How to cite: Kumar, A. and Gaurav, K.: Assessing the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological response of the upper Betwa River basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14062, 2021.

EGU21-14605 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Analysis of mine sites restoration strategies for soil and water resources protection

Tommaso Pacetti, Marco Lompi, and Enrica Caporali

Mine reclamation represents an important environmental challenge due to the necessity of identifying the appropriate restoration measures to handle landscape change and minimize the associated environmental impacts. Water management plays a key role for determining strategies to reduce these impacts, e.g. necessity of restoring natural drainage patterns, implementing flood control measures and restoring hydrological natural behaviour. Fundamental aspects are certainly represented by the runoff variation and the proper sediment management.

The objective of this study is to give quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of decommissioning strategies on water and sediment management. The selected case study is a former lignite mining site located in San Cipriano catchment (Tuscany, central Italy) that include a reservoir severely hit by silting problems. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyse current situation and to implement different LULC changes analysis. Since hydrometric gauge stations were not available in the catchment, the model calibration focused on sediment transport using observed silting volume in the reservoir, which has been estimated thanks to multiple bathymetric campaigns carried out over the years. Two environmental restoration scenarios have been analysed: the first is focused on the land use change with the afforestation of the former mining site with native plants; the second is a wider landscape restoration project that also includes river bodies rehabilitation.

Results highlight a strong reduction of sediment yield and a decrease in water yield associated to the restoration intervention. This is mainly due to the effects of reforestation that influence the hydrological cycle inducing an increase of water storage in the soil and determine a strong reduction of sediment input to the reservoir. The model results represent a valuable decision support tool that help understanding the hydrological impacts of LULC changes, supporting the identification of the most appropriate mining decommissioning strategies.

How to cite: Pacetti, T., Lompi, M., and Caporali, E.: Analysis of mine sites restoration strategies for soil and water resources protection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14605, 2021.

EGU21-5573 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Land Use Dynamics in the Khor Abu Habil alluvial fan,Sudan

Aicha Seifelislam-Schreiber, Elfatih AbdelRahman, and Christina Bogner

Introduction African wetlands in arid and semi-arid regions provide a multitude of ecosystem services and have been described as the “heart of Sahelian life systems". The Khor Abu Habil alluvial wetlands (Khor is the name given to ephemeral rivers in Sudan) are situated in the semi-arid zone in the southern part of the Sudan. These ephemeral wetlands are fed by seasonal wadi streams and remain for several months. They provide a habitat for migratory water birds and play a fundamental role in supporting the human population (agriculture, grazing, fishing, hunting and construction).

Goals In this study we analyse the Land Use and Land Cover (LUL) dynamics related to wetlands and the agricultural activities.

Material and Methods Landsat images between 1982 and 2018 were used to run a LULC analysis in the Khor Abu Habil alluvial fan using random forests (RF) and change vector analysis (CVA). Due to the political and the COVID-19 pandemic situations in the study area,  the field work aiming at collecting ground reference points could not be completed. Therefore, we decided to identify training data on different types of LULC classes that were dominant in the study area for the last 30 years using CVA, in addition to the collected ground reference points. High resolution images (Quickbird, Geoeye, WorldView) and expert knowledge were used for the selection of training data. For Landsat images acquired before 2018, the present training data were used where CVA showed no change in LULC. After creating accurate training data, the classification of the different Landsat images was run in R using RF.

Results Different types of LULC classes were detected over the past 30 years: Wetlands, Vegetation, Agriculture, Arenosols, Cambisols, Clays.  Our results show that many of those classes were "transformed" into other classes over the past years. We observe that many of those changes are related to different anthropological activities such as the expansion of agriculture or construction of dams.

Conclusions Wadis or Khors are particular ecosystems that occur in semi-arid regions. In our study area, the economic activities show a relationship between LULC and different human communities. It is crucial to understand those activities and their effects on an ecosystem, especially if the ecosystem is aimed to be protected. Our research is part of the FAO-supported project RESSOURCE with the overall goal to localise and study wetlands of international importance in the sub-saharan Africa and to possibly declare them as Ramsar protected zones.

How to cite: Seifelislam-Schreiber, A., AbdelRahman, E., and Bogner, C.: Land Use Dynamics in the Khor Abu Habil alluvial fan,Sudan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5573, 2021.

EGU21-7974 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Hydrological modelling of Sahelian hydrological paradox: accounting for explicit land use/land cover change in the simulation of hydrological processes

Roland Yonaba, Angelbert Chabi Biaou, Mahamadou Koita, Tazen Fowé, Adjadi Lawani Mounirou, Cheick Oumar Zouré, Pierre Queloz, Harouna Karambiri, and Hamma Yacouba

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a major factor affecting the hydrological response at the watershed scale. However, hydrological modelling, in its current practice, is usually carried using a single and static LULC layer for simulation runs over long periods. Eventually, this approach leads to failure in accounting for LULC spatial and temporal changes as well as non-linear impacts on simulated outputs. Besides, in the typical case of Sahelian hydrosystems, previous modelling attempts based on this approach failed at reproducing the well-known Sahelian hydrological paradox which occurred in the area during the period 1970-1990. This study aims at assessing the added value of dynamical integration of LULC changes in hydrological modelling of surface runoff in Sahelian hydrosystems. The Tougou watershed (37 km²), located in Northern Burkina Faso is selected as a case study. LULC maps of the watershed are produced from 1952 to 2017 from the processing of Landsat satellite images. The SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model, using the SCS-CN method (for surface runoff estimation), is calibrated and validated using observed runoff data collected over the period 2004-2018. The calibration/validation is carried using LULC maps of the watershed in 1999, 2009 and 2017, dynamically integrated into the model using a specific land use update module. Further, the calibrated model parameters helped in the reconstitution of surface runoff over the historical period 1952-2005 and integrating dynamically LULC maps in 1952, 1973, 1986 and 1999. The results showed that between the periods 1952-1968 (P1) and 1986-2005 (P3), the average annual rainfall decreased by 87.9 mm while paradoxically, average annual runoff increased by 1 mm. Further analysis revealed that the increase in runoff is mainly attributed to LULC changes (+647%) which offsets the effect of the decrease in rainfall (-547%). From the analysis of LULC maps, it was found that from P1 to P3 periods, the decrease in natural vegetation (CN = 67.3 ± 5.7) by 40%, replaced by bare and degraded soils (CN = 83.8 ± 2.5) explained the observed increase in surface runoff potential of the watershed, as shown by their calibrated CN values. These findings are reminiscent of the Sahelian hydrological paradox reported in the literature and provide evidence of the sensitivity of surface runoff to LULC changes. Overall, the results call to hydrologists, water resources planners and managers, regarding the advantages of coupling LULC changes in hydrological modelling. Also, the study advocates for the development of integrated modelling platforms integrating both LULC changes and hydrological modelling to allow a better understanding and the more accurate long-term forecasting of water resources, in particular in the case of Sahelian hydrosystems.

Keywords: Dynamic LULC input, Hydrological modelling, Surface runoff, SWAT model, Burkina Faso, Sahelian paradox.

How to cite: Yonaba, R., Biaou, A. C., Koita, M., Fowé, T., Mounirou, A. L., Zouré, C. O., Queloz, P., Karambiri, H., and Yacouba, H.: Hydrological modelling of Sahelian hydrological paradox: accounting for explicit land use/land cover change in the simulation of hydrological processes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7974, 2021.

EGU21-15415 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Contribution of the Sahel region to precipitation over the African continent

Sofie te Wierik, Jessica Keune, Diego Miralles, Erik Cammeraat, Yael Artzy-Randrup, and Joyeeta Gupta

Redistribution of evapotranspiration from land via atmospheric circulation is an important Earth system process. Globally, evapotranspiration contributes significantly to terrestrial rainfall, on both regional and more remote scales. In wet, tropical regions (e.g. the Congo basin), transpiration and interception loss from the dense forest cover are the primary drivers of moisture recycling, which plays a crucial role in preserving regional ecosystem functioning. However, for semi-arid and arid regions, our knowledge on the extent and significance of evapotranspiration for moisture recycling is still very limited, despite the significance this may have for addressing challenges of desertification in times of rapid environmental change. Considering this, we are taking the Sahel region as a case study and investigate its contribution to precipitation in the African continent. In addition, we specifically study what fraction of the precipitation originates from vegetation in the Sahel through transpiration and interception loss. Our study is based on simulated atmospheric moisture trajectories derived from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART with a 1-degree resolution, driven by ECMWF reanalysis data over 1980–2016. Preliminary results show (1) the temporal variability in the contribution of the region to precipitation in African drylands, and (2) a significant contribution of local precipitation recycling. We conclude that consideration of the naturally and anthropogenically-driven greening of the Sahel, as well as land use and land cover changes in the region, may have both local and far-reaching impacts via the transport of moisture through the atmosphere.

How to cite: te Wierik, S., Keune, J., Miralles, D., Cammeraat, E., Artzy-Randrup, Y., and Gupta, J.: Contribution of the Sahel region to precipitation over the African continent, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15415, 2021.

EGU21-4899 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3 | Highlight

Afforesting the UK: Potential Hydrological Impacts

Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, and Louise Slater

Ambitious targets to expand forested land area have increased over the last decade as governments, businesses, and individuals seek to use woodland as carbon sinks. Currently, it is unknown how proposed afforestation rates will influence catchment water resources and hydrological processes. Both the temporal and spatial scale of proposed afforestation are unprecedented on contemporary timescales and we lack the systematic and quantified understanding of its impact on streamflow at catchment scales. Furthermore, the efficacy of afforestation as a form of natural flood management has yet to be tested across multiple catchments (> 30 km2).

 

The UK Government has pledged to use afforestation as a major component of its approach to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In this project, we investigate the influence of afforestation upon streamflow dynamics in twelve catchments across the British Isles. We aim to determine how woodland planting extent and location influences catchment streamflow response and sensitivity, and which catchment attributes account for these changes. To do this, we use physics-based land surface model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) at a 1 km resolution to understand the potential hydrological changes to theoretical afforestation scenarios.

 

Land cover afforestation scenarios were created according to proximity to existing land cover, drainage basin structure and afforestation rate (up to 288 potential land cover scenarios per catchment). The period of 2000-2010, a flood-rich period, was used to simulate and compare how each afforestation scenario would influence catchment flow exceedance levels and streamflow regime using the CHESS-met dataset.

 

Results show increasing afforestation has a clear impact upon streamflow dynamics. A strong negative correlation between increasing afforestation and median and low flows exists but is weaker for higher flows. Some afforestation scenarios could increase the highest flows in the period. Quantile regression on the results of our simulations shows a median change of -1.0 ± 0.21 mm yr-1 (-0.26 ± 0.10%) for the median flow exceedance per percentage point of broadleaf woodland planted across all catchments. Planting according to Shreve order, or contributing area, led to statistically significant differences in streamflow dynamics. Climatic catchment attributes correlated strongly with catchment median flow sensitivity to afforestation.

 

These results help us to understand how afforestation may influence catchment response to external climatic forcing.  We hope it provides evidence to policymakers wishing to understand the implications of afforestation on water resources and the foundation to understand its future catchment-scale impacts on streamflow.

How to cite: Buechel, M., Dadson, S., and Slater, L.: Afforesting the UK: Potential Hydrological Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4899, 2021.

EGU21-6559 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Changes in soil hydraulic conductivity and preferential flow pathways after assisted forest restoration on degraded land in the Khasi Hills (Meghalaya, NE India)

Chandra Prasad Ghimire, Bob W. Zwartendijk, Felix Pde, and L. Adrian Bruijnzeel

As in other parts of the Indian subcontinent, the forests of Meghalaya (NE India) provide an array of environmental services but the prevalence of traditional slash-and-burn agriculture (locally called jhum) plus mining has led to severely degraded hillsides and a critical loss of soil water storage opportunity and groundwater recharge. As a result, despite receiving some of the highest rainfall totals in the world (MAP up to 11 m, 75% received between May and September), the Meghalaya plateau faces severe water scarcity during the five-month long dry season. In response to such problems, initiatives have been taken towards restoring hydrological functioning through reforestation and assisted natural regeneration (ANR) programmes. As a first step towards assessing the possible improvement of soil physical characteristics and associated hydrological functioning after several years of ANR we measured topsoil (0–10 cm) saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) using double-ring infiltrometry at 12 sites in the Khasi Hills that represented three contrasting vegetation covers: (i) sacred forest (n = 6, natural baseline), (ii) 2–10-year-old ANR (n = 3), and (iii) degraded Imperata grassland (n = 3, degraded reference). At each site, nine Ksat-measurements were taken along the hillslope gradient. In addition, at three sites, blue dye infiltration experiments (n = 2 per site) were carried out to examine the dominant percolation pathways associated with each land-cover type. The median Ksat value for the sacred forest sites was highest (373 mm h-1), reflecting the abundance of biologically mediated macropores arising from the decomposing activity of soil microflora and fauna at these relatively undisturbed sites. The corresponding value for the ANR sites (160 mm h-1) was much higher than the median Ksat for the degraded grasslands (71 mm h-1) but still considerably below the forest reference. Limited observations of topsoil bulk density and carbon content (n = 5 samples in each of three plots) showed increasing bulk density and decreasing carbon content from forest via ANR to grassland, thereby reflecting the observed trend in Ksat. The blue dye experiments suggested infiltration in the sacred forest was dominated by flow along roots and other preferential flow pathways whereas the degraded grassland was mostly characterized by matrix flow. The ANR site showed intermediate behaviour with macropore flow exhibiting high matrix interaction. Comparison of observed median topsoil Ksat in top-layer with prevailing (maximum) hourly rainfall intensities for Cherrapunji suggested infiltration-excess overland flow (IOF) must be considered a rare phenomenon in the sacred forest. Conversely, the Ksat-values for the ANR and degraded grassland sites indicated the occurrence of IOF at high-intensity rainfall events. Despite the observed improvement in surface Ksat it cannot be excluded that the generally shallow nature and high stoniness of the soils pose serious limitations to rebuilding soil water storage capacity through ANR/reforestation. Furthermore, frequent occurrence of saturation-excess OF at the height of the monsoon and associated surface erosion cannot be excluded.

How to cite: Ghimire, C. P., Zwartendijk, B. W., Pde, F., and Bruijnzeel, L. A.: Changes in soil hydraulic conductivity and preferential flow pathways after assisted forest restoration on degraded land in the Khasi Hills (Meghalaya, NE India), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6559, 2021.

EGU21-7031 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Predicting stormflow response of a degraded tropical grassland catchment using a spatially variable infiltration model

Zhuo Cheng, Jun Zhang, Bofu Yu, and L. Adrian Bruijnzeel

Reduced surface infiltration capacity (Ksat), increased infiltration-excess overland flow (IOF) and soil loss after deforestation and subsequent surface degradation in the humid tropics are well-documented. However, attempts to predict concomitant increases in storm runoff using physically-based approaches or to relate infiltration model parameter values calibrated with observed hyetographs and hydrographs at the small catchment scale to point-based measurements of Ksat are rare. We used measured rainfall intensity and stormflow rates at 5-min intervals for 37 separate events (receiving 5–154 mm of rain) from the 3.2 ha degraded fire-climax grassland Basper catchment (Leyte Island, Philippines) to evaluate the performance of a spatially variable infiltration (SVI) model. SVI relates actual infiltration rates to rainfall intensity and a spatially averaged infiltration parameter Im after an initial infiltration amount F0 and has been used successfully to predict IOF at the plot scale at various tropical locations. Quickflow hydrographs were produced using the Hewlett & Hibbert straight-line separation method and actual infiltration rates were derived by subtracting 5-min quickflow rates from corresponding rainfall inputs. SVI-predicted actual infiltration rates were compared with observed rates to derive optimized values of Im and F0 per event. Earlier work at Basper had revealed very low (near-)surface values of Ksat (implying frequent IOF although there was reason to suspect that Ksat was underestimated). No explicit measurement was made of hillslope IOF, but stable isotope mass balance computations and a high degree of stream-water dilution during times of rain suggested large contributions of ‘new’ water of low electrical conductivity that likely represented OF. Whilst SVI generally replicated individual quickflow hydrographs very well, values of Im and F0 varied markedly between events. Using the median values of Im (46 mm h-1) and F0 (6.8 mm) produced reasonable to good results (NSE > 0.6) for a subset of 15 (larger) events only. F0 was positively related to maximum rainfall intensity over 15 or 30 min while Im was not significantly correlated to measured (mid-slope) soil water content or precipitation-based antecedent wetness indicators. However, Im exhibited a significant inverse correlation (Spearman rs=-0.617) with pre-storm baseflow rate Qb (notably for Qb<0.5 mm d-1) suggesting foot-slope wetness status may be important for stormflow generation as well. The spatial distribution of Ksat-values implied by SVI confirmed the suspected under-estimation of field-based Ksat across the measured range, presumably reflecting a combination of macropore smearing (near-surface Amoozemeter measurements) and the limited size of the double-ring infiltrometer used for the measurement of surface infiltration rates.

How to cite: Cheng, Z., Zhang, J., Yu, B., and Bruijnzeel, L. A.: Predicting stormflow response of a degraded tropical grassland catchment using a spatially variable infiltration model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7031, 2021.

The aim of this study is the assessment of the effect of riparian vegetation management practices on the hydrodynamic behaviour of vegetated water bodies colonized by riparian weed species. The present study was carried out by calibrating the most suitable literature models on flow resistance of vegetated flows, by considering different riparian vegetation management scenarios. The key dimensional features of the examined riparian vegetation elements were estimated by comparing the outcomes of the digital processing of remote sensing and proximity sensors extremely widespread in both agricultural and forestry studies and applications. The main remarks of this study well demonstrated that the knowledge of the hydraulic and hydrological proprieties of vegetated flows at field scale is sensibly affected by the uncertainties in the measurements of riparian vegetation biomass and water quality, differently from experimental analyses conducted in dedicated flumes in the laboratory performed in standard environment conditions.

How to cite: Crimaldi, M. and Lama, G. F. C.: Assessing the impact of land use management on the hydrodynamic behavior of vegetated water bodies colonized by riparian weed species , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12842, 2021.

EGU21-13190 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3

Assessing changes in land use and their effects on river flows in tropical catchments of Ecuador

Andy Giler-Ormaza, Rafael Pimentel, and Cristina Aguilar

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have direct effects on streamflows at the catchment scale. However, studies of this type are still lacking in some tropical areas of the globe where LULC changes constitute the main antropic changes at watershed scale; for instance, deforestation, and agricultural modification among others. Therefore, for analysing impacts on streamflow, the first challenge is to achieve a good characterization of LULC. 

Here the objective is to evaluate whether these changes have occurred for two small basins on the South American coast in Ecuador (Junín and Paján) and, to analyse their possible effects on flows with special emphasis on minimum flows. Both catchments are characterized by savanna (Aw) climate with  seasonal rainfall patterns and a long period of minimum to zero precipitation. Changes in LULC are studied using two sources of remote sensing information: ESA-CCI-LC at spatial resolution of 300 m and Landsat TM at spatial resolution of 30 m, together with local authorities reports within the last decades. While ESA-CCI-LC directly provides LULC information , LULC was retrieved from surface reflectance after preprocessing (atmospheric and topographic corrections) from Landsat by  using a supervised algorithm. In a preliminary approach the observed changes are compared with variation in streamflow in the outlet of both catchment. 

Results show that for one of the catchments, Junín, ESA-CCI-LC does not reflect changes, while the analysis with Landsat TM shows a decrease of 11.7% of evergreen forest and an increase in agricultural activities. For the other basin, Paján, the first source indicates an increase in evergreen forest, while the second source indicates the opposite, a decrease of 7.4%. The contradictions in these sources highlight the importance of taking into account local knowledge as well as the appropriate selection of spatial resolution in the analysis. Finally, regarding the effects of the LULC changes in streamflow the initial approach was not sufficient to capture any direct effect and therefore, a deeper analysis based on specific features of the streamflow signal are planned as the next step.  

How to cite: Giler-Ormaza, A., Pimentel, R., and Aguilar, C.: Assessing changes in land use and their effects on river flows in tropical catchments of Ecuador, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13190, 2021.

EGU21-15766 | vPICO presentations | HS5.1.3 | Highlight

The role of forests in securing water for agriculture globally

Agnes Pranindita, Adriaan J Teuling, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

Forests worldwide supply moisture to downwind precipitation through moisture recycling. Agricultural areas located downwind of forests are, hence, susceptible to changes in precipitation caused by upwind forest changes. In fact, human activities have driven extensive forest cover changes in different parts of the world, in different directions, and at different rates. Nevertheless, the forest-agriculture relationship has yet to be systematically quantified and mapped globally. Previous regional studies in South America show that upwind deforestation of the Amazon forest can reduce downwind precipitation and thus decrease agricultural production. A global coverage analysis of forest-agriculture relationship is therefore necessary to identify other hotspot regions where downwind agriculture relies heavily on upwind forests. In this study, we establish the global source-to-sink relationship between forests and their downwind agriculture by analysing 10 years of high resolution (0.25°x0.25°) ERA5-based moisture flows processed by the UTrack moisture tracking model. We assess the seasonality of the reliance on forests considering the growing season of crops cultivated in the downwind regions. Our study provides a global overview of the cross-sectoral and remote dependence of agriculture on forests globally through moisture recycling.

How to cite: Pranindita, A., Teuling, A. J., Fetzer, I., and Wang-Erlandsson, L.: The role of forests in securing water for agriculture globally, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15766, 2021.

HS5.2.1 – Improving hydroclimatic services for water sectors: from forecasts to management and policy

EGU21-14265 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis as a reference dataset for fine-scale hydrological modelling over alpine basins 

Susen Shrestha, Mattia Zaramella, Mattia Callegari, Felix Greifeneder, and Marco Borga

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has recently released its most advanced reanalysis product, the ERA5 dataset. It was designed and generated with methods giving it multiple advantages over the previous release, the ERA-Interim reanalysis product. Notably, it has a finer spatial resolution, is archived at the hourly time step, uses a more advanced assimilation system, and includes more sources of data. This paper aims to evaluate the ERA5 reanalysis as a potential reference dataset for hydrological modelling by considering the ERA5 precipitation and temperatures as proxies for observations in the hydrological modelling process. This is obtained by using a semi-distributed hydrological model over basins ranging from 40km2 to 6900 km2 over the Upper Adige river basin in the Eastern Italian Alps. This study shows that ERA5-based precipitation product is affected by a significant bias which translates to biased runoff at all spatial scales considered in the study. We observed that ERA5 precipitation product generally overestimate low-intensity rainfall and underestimate high rainfall intensity in the region. We analysed how this affects simulation of annual max floods over the study area. The results show that flood simulations are in general surprisingly good, as they result from the combination of two cascading errors: i) overestimation of the soil moisture conditions at the start of the event and ii) the underestimation of the event forcing rainfall. Differences between ERA5 and observation datasets are mostly linked to precipitation, as temperature only marginally influences the hydrological simulation outcomes.

How to cite: Shrestha, S., Zaramella, M., Callegari, M., Greifeneder, F., and Borga, M.: Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis as a reference dataset for fine-scale hydrological modelling over alpine basins , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14265, 2021.

EGU21-15762 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Flood forecasting system for Brahmaputra river basin 

Akash Kale and Vimal Mishra

Assam has always been India’s most flood prone state due to the presence of Brahmaputra river, which is very unstable in terms of its flow direction witnessing 12 major floods from 1950 to 2012. Flooding in the basin has affected around 2.75 million of people and 0.27 million hectares of agricultural land on an average causing catastrophic damage to human life and infrastructure. In this study, we analysed all the major floods across the Brahmaputra river in the past 70 years and established the dependency within discharge and atmospheric parameters. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was set up to simulate the flow at two stations namely Yangcun, China and Bahadurabad, Bangladesh. We  used near surface meteorological data for driving land surface modelling systems from 1901 to 2016 as input parameters to the VIC model. To avoid the discontinuity of data after 2016, we used ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data for the period of 2016 to 2020. After obtaining the continuous simulated discharge for 120 years, we established the relationship between the observed and simulated discharge data for which the R-squared and Nash Sutcliffe coefficient values were 0.83 and 0.78 respectively. Comparing the simulated discharge with the observed extreme discharge at various locations on the river, we apply the model to address future flood situations.

How to cite: Kale, A. and Mishra, V.: Flood forecasting system for Brahmaputra river basin , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15762, 2021.

EGU21-11163 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1 | Highlight

A downscaling model system for early warning flooding forecast

Francesco Cioffi, Federico Rosario Conticello, Mario Giannini, Tommaso Lapini, Sergio Pirozzoli, Vincenzo Scotti, Vito Telesca, and Lorenzo Tieghi

A     recent report “The Future is Now: Science for Achieving Sustainable Development” Global Sustainable Development Report 2019 - SDG Summit’      as part of the activity of Agenda 2030 of UN, highlights the opportunity to develop Early warning system for drought, floods and other meteorological events, that by providing timely information can be used by vulnerable countries to build resilience, reduce risks and prepare more effective responses. Following the suggestion,      combining outputs from Global Circulation models, remote sensing, hydraulic models and machine learning tools,       a local scale flooding Early Warning System (EWS) is proposed for the St. Lucia island (     Caribbean). The objective of the EWS is to provide forecasts of potentially dangerous flooding phenomena at different time scale: a) 0-2 hours, nowcasting; b) 24-48 hours, short range; c) 3-10 days, middle to long range. Data used to build the model are: Geopotential Height (GPH) fields at 850 hPa and Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) fields from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - Reanalysis v5 (ERA5); Tropical Cyclone tracks from NOAA-NHC; 18 weather stations homogeneously distributed in the island; rainfall map data from the weather radar in Saint Lucia. GPH and IVT fields were defined between 110°W - 10°W and 45°N - 10°S. The EWS is constituted by an ensemble of flooding risk forecast subsystems which is potentially applicable to Atlantic tropical and extra-tropical regions. Different approaches are used for each subsystem      to link large scale atmospheric features to local rainfall and flooding: a) Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov and Event Synchronization models to translate IVT and GPH at 850 hPa  fields (from ECMWF-Set II- Atmospheric Model Ensemble) in local      daily rainfall amount and probability of  exceedance of  a prefixed heavy rainfall threshold; b) a physical based cyclone/rainfall  model to convert      Tropical cyclone attributes – position and      maximum wind      velocity       (provided from National Hurricane Center)- in rainfall intensity spatial distribution on the island; c) a surrogate model for a  fast and accurate prediction of flooding events that is obtained from a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), which is trained on a high-fidelity dataset relying on solution of the full two-dimensional shallow water equations with direct rainfall application.        Results show an excellent ability of the models to identify the climatic configurations that determine the occurrence of extreme events and the exceeding of threshold values ​​that generate floods. In particular, during the late hurricane season September-October-November, when is highest the probability of flood events, the EWS was able to forecast the occurrence of critical climatic configurations 86% of the times they occurred. The EWS was able to predict the exceeding of the rainfall threshold that generated floods 80% of times.

How to cite: Cioffi, F., Conticello, F. R., Giannini, M., Lapini, T., Pirozzoli, S., Scotti, V., Telesca, V., and Tieghi, L.: A downscaling model system for early warning flooding forecast, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11163, 2021.

EGU21-5060 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

What is the impact of earth observation and in-situ data assimilation on seasonal hydrological forecast quality?

Jude Lubega Musuuza, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis

Earth Observations (EO) have become popular in hydrology because they provide information in locations where direct measurements are either unavailable or prohibitively expensive to make. Recent scientific advances have enabled the assimilation of EOs into hydrological models to improve the estimation of initial states and fluxes which can further lead to improved  forecasting of different variables. When assimilated, the data exert additional controls on the quality of the forecasts; it is hence important to apportion the effects according to model forcings and the assimilated datasets. Here,  we investigate the hydrological response and seasonal predictions over the snowmelt driven Umeälven catchment in northern Sweden. The HYPE hydrological model is driven  by two meteorological forcings: (i) a downscaled GCM meteorological product based on the bias-adjusted ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts, and (ii) historical meteorological data based on the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique. Six datasets are assimilated consisting of four EO products (fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, and the actual and potential evapotranspiration) and two in-situ measurements (discharge and reservoir inflow). We finally assess the impacts of the meteorological forcing data and the assimilated EO and in-situ data on the quality of streamflow and reservoir inflow seasonal forecasting skill for the period 2001-2015. The results show that all assimilations generally improve the skill but the improvement varies depending on the season and assimilated variable. The lead times until when the data assimilations influence the forecast quality are also different for different datasets and seasons; as an example, the impact from assimilating snow water equivalent persists for more than 20 weeks during the spring. We finally show that the assimilated datasets exert more control on the forecasting skill than the meteorological forcing data, highlighting the importance of initial hydrological conditions for this snow-dominated river system.

How to cite: Musuuza, J. L., Crochemore, L., and Pechlivanidis, I. G.: What is the impact of earth observation and in-situ data assimilation on seasonal hydrological forecast quality?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5060, 2021.

EGU21-14138 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Sub-seasonal streamflow predictions by combining numerical weather models and re-analysis data in alpine catchments

Mattia Zaramella, Susen Shtrestha, Mattia Callegari, Alice Crespi, Felix Greifeneder, and Marco Borga

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has presented in 2017 its latest seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, available at 1° spatial resolution and daily timestep. More recently, in 2019, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset was released, replacing ERA Interim in providing climatic variables at a finer spatial and temporal resolution (30 km and hourly respectively). The use of such numerical weather predictions and re-analysis data has increased following the need for skills in planning water resources and preventing hydrogeological risk, as demanded by policy makers, energy stakeholders and public authorities. In this work, we apply at a sub-seasonal timescale the ECMWF-SEAS5 hindcast dataset to assess its prediction skills in the upper Adige river basin in the Eastern Italian Alps. The classical Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework was designated as a benchmark to assess ECMWF scores over the reference, a model simulation calibrated and validated on the runoff observed from 16 sub-basins and size spanning from 50 to 6900 km2. Before application, ECMWF was downscaled and adjusted to the ERA5 re-analysis data by means of a Quantile Mapping (QM) technique. The analysis was conducted over 23 hindcast years from 1993 to 2016 exploiting the semi-distributed basin-scale hydrological model (ICHYMOD). We showed that the sub seasonal QPF-based forecasts have advantages over the ESP, although, generally their skill deteriorates in lead times after day 15. Moreover, ECMWF predictions better perform during early-spring snowmelt and late summer. During late spring and early summer, the forecast skills of the two frameworks vary from basin to basin depending on specific features and lead times.  

How to cite: Zaramella, M., Shtrestha, S., Callegari, M., Crespi, A., Greifeneder, F., and Borga, M.: Sub-seasonal streamflow predictions by combining numerical weather models and re-analysis data in alpine catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14138, 2021.

EGU21-13695 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Physical-based hydrological modelling for real-time forecasting of soil moisture in a mesoscale catchment

Keshav Parameshwaran Shankara Mahadevan, Hartmut Holländer, Paul Bullock, Steven Frey, and Timi Ojo

Soil moisture is highly variable in space and time. Climate change is expected to increase the variation in precipitation that may cause more frequent extremes in soil moisture. This will have major impacts on agriculture and infrastructure. Hence, forecasting can help mitigate the impacts of soil moisture extremes by providing warning about upcoming extreme events. Accurate soil moisture forecasting will provide policymakers, farmers and other stakeholders more reliable information on crop yield potential and flood risk to improve decision making.  Real-time soil moisture monitoring and forecasting can be accomplished by utilizing a numerical modelling approach that consolidates various sources of weather and hydrological data to simulate soil moisture levels. Soil water movement is difficult to describe numerically for fine-textured soils. Additionally, soil water behaviour during freeze/thaw events are generally weakly described by numerical tools. This study addresses both problems and evaluates how soil moisture can be forecasted under the hydrologically challenging conditions of the Red River Valley using the Brunkild catchment within the Red River basin.  The Brunkild catchment represents a highly variable landscape cross-section that includes heavy clay soils of the Red River Valley through to the coarse-textured soils of the adjacent escarpment. Soil moisture levels were continuously monitored from June – August 2020 using Sentek sensors which were installed at depths of 10 to 90 cm with 10 cm spacing, and with POGO sensors that were used to manually measure surface soil moisture levels at monthly intervals from June to August 2020. Climate variables were obtained from the RISMA (Real-time In-situ Soil Monitoring for Agriculture) stations present inside the catchment.  In addition to soil moisture data, surface water flow and groundwater data will also be used to aid with calibration and validation of a fully-integrated HydroGeoSphere (HGS) surface water – groundwater model of the catchment. Preliminary results using MERRA 2 data as climate forcing showed a strong fit for all observations in sandy soils and a good fit for all observation in clay. The next simulations will use the observed weather data. The model will be recalibrated and then being used to forecast soil moisture in the Brunkild catchment for the coming 14 days for the 2021 growing season.

How to cite: Shankara Mahadevan, K. P., Holländer, H., Bullock, P., Frey, S., and Ojo, T.: Physical-based hydrological modelling for real-time forecasting of soil moisture in a mesoscale catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13695, 2021.

EGU21-13483 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Coherent intra-annual ensemble forecasts of surface and groundwater availability

David Robertson, Guobin Fu, Olga Barron, Geoff Hodgson, and Andrew Schepen

In many parts of the world, surface water and groundwater are used complementarily to supply agricultural production and to meet urban water demands. Conjunctive management of these water resources requires balancing of the different characteristics of surface water and groundwater with respect to availability, quality and cost of supply. Ensemble forecasts of surface water and groundwater availability can inform management decisions but require explicit representation of the complex processes controlling surface and groundwater interactions. While many methods and operational services exist that provide independent forecasts for surface and groundwater availability, to our knowledge no approaches for coupled forecasting have been developed yet.

In this presentation we introduce an approach that generates coupled forecasts of surface water and groundwater availability. It extends the Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS) (Bennett et al., 2016) approach to forecast groundwater level at specified locations, in addition to streamflow totals, to lead times of 12 months at monthly time steps. We adapt a conceptual hydrological model to improve predictions of streamflow and, as a by-product, groundwater level. We then apply independent error models to streamflow and groundwater level to reduce bias, update predictions using recent observations and quantify residual uncertainty. Ensemble streamflow and groundwater forecasts are generated by forcing the hydrological and error models with ensemble rainfall forecasts generated by post-processing ECMWF System 5 outputs. The skill, bias and reliability of the rainfall, streamflow and groundwater level forecasts were assessed for a case-study catchment in South-East Queensland, Australia. We find that skill of forecasts is dependent on the forecast issue month and lead time, with groundwater level forecasts displaying significant skill to lead times of 12 months, while streamflow forecast skill rarely persists beyond 3 months.  We conclude by describing opportunities to improve forecast skill and some of the challenges that may be faced in the operational delivery of water resource forecasts in real-time.

Reference

Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resources Research, 52, 8238-8259, 10.1002/2016WR019193, 2016.

How to cite: Robertson, D., Fu, G., Barron, O., Hodgson, G., and Schepen, A.: Coherent intra-annual ensemble forecasts of surface and groundwater availability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13483, 2021.

Groundwater level monitoring is an important way for water resource managers to obtain information on the state of the groundwater system and make informed decisions. In many countries around Europe the right to abstract groundwater (e.g., for drinking water or irrigation purposes) is bound to observed groundwater levels. In particular during and after periods of drought such rights to abstract groundwater may be temporarily denied. As climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes, severe drought events become more likely, potentially increasing the gap between groundwater demand and supply. An early warning system of a potential groundwater drought could help water managers make informed decisions in advance, to try and counteract the effects of drought. In this study we investigate the use of seasonal forecasts from the ECMWF SEAS5 system to forecast groundwater levels around Europe. The groundwater levels are simulated using a non-linear time series model using impulse response functions as implemented in Pastas (https://github.com/pastas/pastas). Forecasts are compared to groundwater level simulations based on historic meteorological data from the E-OBS database. The methods are tested on 10 long-term (30 years) groundwater level time series. The use of the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) is tested to assess the forecast quality and communicate results with decision makers. Bias-correction of the SEAS5 forecasts is found to be necessary to forecast groundwater levels at this local scale. Preliminary results show that the forecast quality depends on the memory effect of the groundwater system, which can be characterized by the auto-correlation of the time series. In addition, it is found that the groundwater levels forecasts have smaller ranges in spring then in the winter months. This may be explained by the fact that groundwater levels in spring are more dependent on evaporation than on precipitation and that forecast of the first are better than those of the latter. The results from this study may be used to improve early warning systems that forecast groundwater droughts.

How to cite: Collenteur, R. and Birk, S.: Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in Europe using Pastas time series models and ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3902, 2021.

EGU21-7252 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Developing a Sub-seasonal Forecasting System for Hydropower Reservoirs in Scotland 

Robert M. Graham, Jethro Browell, Douglas Bertram, and Christopher J. White

Inflow forecasts play an essential role in the management of hydropower reservoirs. Forecasts help operators to mitigate flood risks, meet environmental requirements, and maximise the value of power generated. In Scotland, operational inflow forecasts for hydropower facilities are typically limited in range to 2 weeks ahead, which marks the predictability barrier of deterministic weather forecasts. Extending the horizon of these forecasts may allow operators to take more proactive responses to risks of adverse weather conditions, thereby improving water management and increasing profits.

This study outlines a method of producing skilful probabilistic inflow forecasts for hydropower reservoirs on sub-seasonal timescales (up to 6-weeks ahead), directly from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model output. Using a case study site of a large hydropower reservoir in the Scottish Highlands, we use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) extended-range forecast to create probabilistic inflow forecasts for the reservoir. Inflow forecasts are derived by training a linear regression model for the observed inflow onto the NWP precipitation, and subsequently applying post-processing techniques from Ensemble Model Output Statistics.

We show that the inflow forecasts hold fair skill relative to climatology up to six weeks ahead. Average inflow forecasts for the period 1-35 days ahead hold good skill relative to climatology, and are comparably skilful to an average inflow forecast for the period 8-14 days ahead. Forecasts are more skilful in winter than summer, which is consistent with physical teleconnections from the tropics that operate on sub-seasonal timescales.

We further apply a stylised cost model that demonstrates the potential value of these forecasts through improved water management. The stylised cost model indicates that the sub-seasonal probabilistic inflow forecast are sufficiently reliable to improve decision making and deliver added value across all forecast horizons up to six weeks ahead, relative to climatological or deterministic forecasts.

How to cite: Graham, R. M., Browell, J., Bertram, D., and White, C. J.: Developing a Sub-seasonal Forecasting System for Hydropower Reservoirs in Scotland , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7252, 2021.

EGU21-2340 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

ULYSSES: a system for global multi-model hydrological seasonal predictions

Luis Samaniego, Stephan Thober, Matthias Kelbling, Robert Schweppe, Oldrich Rakovec, Pallav Shrestha, Alberto Martinez-de la Torre, Eleanor M. Blyth, Katie A. Smith, Gwyn Rees, Matthew Fry, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Niko Wanders, Marc FP Bierkens, and Rens van Beek

The Copernicus Climate Change Service aims at facilitating the emergence of a downstream market of climate services with the ultimate goal of supporting the development of a climate-smart society. Central to this vision is the free and unrestricted distribution of high-quality climate data through the Climate Data Store [1], with seasonal meteorological predictions among them. Within this unique and challenging framework, ULYSSES [2] will provide the first "seamless'' multi-model hydrological seasonal prediction system, with a global coverage at a spatial resolution of 0.1° The ULYSSES modeling chain is based on the successfully tested EDgE proof of concept [3] using four state-of-the-art hydrological models (Jules, HTESSEL, mHM, and PCR-GLOBWB). A unique feature of this production chain consists of using the same land surface datasets (e.g. DEM, soil properties) with identical spatio-temporal resolutions and forecast inputs for all HMs, and the same river routing scheme (i.e., the multi-scale routing model mRM).

The initial conditions of the production chain will be based on ERA5-Land dataset and the seasonal forecasts will be driven by a 25-member ensemble generated by the ECMWF-SEAS5 model. ULYSSES aims at generating six essential hydrological variables: snow-water equivalent, snowmelt, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, total runoff, and streamflow with a lead-time of up to six months.  The seasonal forecast was verified at 250+ gauges distributred in all continents during the hind-casting period from 1993 to 2019. The operational forecasting period —in testing phase— started in January 2021 and be extended through until July 2021.  The first operational ULYSSES forecast will be made available by the 10th of each month starting in January 2021.

All input data sets (ERA5-Land), seasonal forecasts (SEAS5) and ULYSSES outputs will be made available in the Copernicus Climate Data Store [1] and will be open access. We aim to engage institutions and researchers around the world that are willing to evaluate the forecasts model performance, with the aim of improving the system in the future. In this talk, the modelling chain concept, model setup and verification of initial results will be presented.

  • [1] https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu
  • [2] https://www.ufz.de/ulysses
  • [3] https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0274.1

How to cite: Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kelbling, M., Schweppe, R., Rakovec, O., Shrestha, P., Martinez-de la Torre, A., Blyth, E. M., Smith, K. A., Rees, G., Fry, M., Sutanudjaja, E., Wanders, N., Bierkens, M. F., and van Beek, R.: ULYSSES: a system for global multi-model hydrological seasonal predictions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2340, 2021.

EGU21-920 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1 | Highlight

Understanding uses and implications of water forecasting in multisectoral research

Sean Turner and Nathalie Voisin

The increasing availability and reliability of river flow forecasts has coincided with forecast-guided operating arrangements that seek to enhance the benefits of water reservoir operations. In the western United States, where winter snowpack depth indicates spring and summer flow, water release decisions may be informed with estimates of incoming water out to weeks and months ahead. Understanding how such medium to long-range forecasts affect the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability at across large basins and regions is necessary to accurately drive and constrain expansive, water-dependent system simulations, such grid-scale electrical power dispatch. This presentation will encompass recent research activities aimed at characterizing the use of forecasts and simulating their effects in large scale hydrological and water management models. Results show that forecasts must be included in reservoir models to accurately reproduce release decisions. Implementing these operations in large-scale hydrological models remains a significant challenge to be tackled by the community. Problems of simulated streamflow bias and lack of accurate data describing water withdrawal and consumption means must be addressed to harness realistic, forecast-based operations in large-scale water management models.

How to cite: Turner, S. and Voisin, N.: Understanding uses and implications of water forecasting in multisectoral research, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-920, 2021.

EGU21-14532 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1 | Highlight

Understanding how hydrological forecast quality impacts the management of hydroelectric reservoirs

Maria-Helena Ramos, Manon Cassagnole, Ioanna Zalachori, Guillaume Thirel, Rémy Garçon, Joël Gailhard, and Thomas Ouillon

The evaluation of inflow forecast quality and value is essential in hydroelectric reservoir management. Forecast value can be quantified by the economic gains obtained when optimizing hydroelectric reservoir operations informed by weather and hydrological forecasts. This study [1] investigates the impact of 7-day streamflow forecasts on the optimal management of hydroelectric reservoirs and the associated economic gains. Flows from ten catchments in France are synthetically generated over a 4-year period to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts define the inflows to ten hydroelectric reservoirs, which are conceptually parametrized. Each reservoir is associated to a downstream power plant with yield 1 which produces electricity valued with a price signal. The system is modelled using linear programming. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value (hydropower revenue) show that forecasts with a recurrent positive bias (overestimation) and low accuracy generate the highest economic losses when compared to the reference management system where forecasts are equal to observed inflows. The smallest losses are observed for forecast systems with under-dispersion reliability bias, while forecast systems with negative bias (underestimation) show intermediate losses. Overall, the losses (which amount to millions of Euros) represent approximately 1% to 3% of the revenue over the study period. Besides revenue, the forecast quality also impacts spillage, stock evolution, production hours and production rates. For instance, forecasting systems that present a positive bias result in a tendency of operations to keep the storage at lower levels so that the reservoir can be able to handle the high volumes expected. This impacts the optimal placement of production at the best hours (i.e. when prices are higher) and the opportunity to produce electricity at higher production rates. Our study showed that when using biased forecasting systems, hydropower production is not only planned during more hours at lower rates but also at hours with lower median prices of electricity. The modelling approaches adopted in our study are certainly far from representing all the complexity of hydropower management under uncertainty. However, they proved to be adapted to obtaining the first orders of magnitude of the value of inflow forecasts in elementary situations.

[1] https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-410

How to cite: Ramos, M.-H., Cassagnole, M., Zalachori, I., Thirel, G., Garçon, R., Gailhard, J., and Ouillon, T.: Understanding how hydrological forecast quality impacts the management of hydroelectric reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14532, 2021.

EGU21-1406 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Valuing Streamflow Forecasts in Centrally Controlled Power Systems

Jordan Kern, Nathalie Voisin, Sean Turner, Hongxiang Yan, and Konstantinos Oikonomou

Given the wide range of institutional and market contexts in which hydroelectric dams are operated, determining the value added from improvements in hydrologic forecasts is a challenge. Many previous examples of hydrologic forecasts being used to optimize hydropower production strategies at dams focus on a single reservoir system or watershed, with a key assumption that the marginal value of hydropower production is exogenously-defined (dams are ‘price takers’ in markets for electricity that exhibit no market power). In some cases, this may accurately reflect current institutional boundaries and decision making processes. However, with increased attention being paid to how more coordinated grid management strategies, including management of hydropower assets, could facilitate deep integration of renewable energy, it is critical to understand how the use of improved hydrologic forecasts could produce wider grid-scale benefits, including  lower costs and emissions. In this study, we quantify the value of streamflow forecasts to a centralized power system operator in charge of coordinating sub-weekly operations of hydropower assets, using the Western U.S. as a case study. We propagate flow forecasts through realistic models of reservoir operations and models of bulk power systems/wholesale electricity markets. Our results shed light on how the value of flow forecasts to grid operations can vary across regions and power systems. They also highlight the potential for conflicts between firm-specific objectives (profit maximization) and system-wide objectives (minimization of costs and emissions) when determining value added from hydrologic forecasts.  

How to cite: Kern, J., Voisin, N., Turner, S., Yan, H., and Oikonomou, K.: Valuing Streamflow Forecasts in Centrally Controlled Power Systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1406, 2021.

EGU21-844 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Optimizing surface water pumping operations utilizing hydrological forecasting and a genetic algorithm

Mohammed Yassin, Keiron Maher, Vanessa Speight, and James Shucksmith

Ensuring the resilience and security of water supply will be one of the most significant future challenges facing water utilities worldwide given potential impacts of climate change and population growth. The development of new water resource options is costly, hence the need to develop techniques to maximize the potential and resilience of current water resource assets without compromising environmental regulations. The availability of real-time meteorological and hydrological data combined with real-time forecasting techniques provide a potential to increase water abstraction volumes without compromising environmental regulations and reduce operational costs. This paper presents an approach for managing surface water abstraction utilizing real-time flow forecasting techniques, coupled with a water resource model and Genetic Algorithm optimization. To evaluate this approach, a retrospective analysis of a historical period 2017/2018 is conducted, comparing historic water abstractions, reservoir water level data, flows downstream abstraction point and energy costs at a case study abstraction site within a catchment in the UK with corresponding simulations based on forecasted flows. Simulation results show that on average 25 Ml/day of additional water could have been abstracted using the forecasting led scheme, without compromising environmental regulations. The results show that rapid declines in reservoir levels during low flow periods can be avoided and energy costs can be significantly reduced (by approximately £ 0.35M / annum) using the proposed approach. This study demonstrates the benefits of utilizing real-time flow forecasting and flexible water pumping schedules to maximize the value of existing surface water resources, in some cases this may reduce the need for significant investment to increase the resilience of supply. Further work will seek to extend the approach to enable optimization of pumping and water release operations in multi reservoir systems.

How to cite: Yassin, M., Maher, K., Speight, V., and Shucksmith, J.: Optimizing surface water pumping operations utilizing hydrological forecasting and a genetic algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-844, 2021.

EGU21-12273 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1 | Highlight

Forecasting groundwater pumping cap in an overexploited Mediterranean aquifer using seasonal meteorological forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service

Adria Rubio-Martin, Hector Macian-Sorribes, Esther Lopez-Perez, Alberto Garcia-Prats, Juan Manzano-Juarez, Miguel Angel Jimenez-Bello, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

The Requena-Utiel aquifer in the Jucar River Basin (Mediterranean Spain) is mined mainly for the irrigation of vineyards (Denominación de Origen Utiel-Requena), and some olive and nut trees. It has been recently declared as in bad quantitative status by the Jucar River Basin Agency (Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar, CHJ). Among the measures taken to control water abstraction, a pumping cap for the irrigation season (May-September) has been agreed between the CHJ and the groundwater user association. This limit depends on the cumulative precipitation from December to April (classifying the year in wet, normal or dry), although that irrigation amount is in any case below the crop requirements. Consequently, predicting the type of year beforehand is a piece of valuable information for the water users in order to optimally schedule groundwater pumping and foresee crop production.

This study analyses the ability of seasonal meteorological forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to anticipate the type of year in the agricultural areas of the Requena Utiel aquifer considering different periods ahead. The following seasonal forecasting services were used: ECMWF SEAS5, UKMO GloSEA5, MétéoFrance System, DWD GCFS, and CMCC SPS. Seasonal forecasts issued between November 1st and April 1st were downloaded and post-processed using a month-dependent linear scaling against historical records. Once post-processed, the skill of seasonal forecasts to predict the type of year has been evaluated for the 1995-2015 period, depending on the anticipation time.

Results show that, on a broader view, the type of year cannot be safely anticipated before April 1st. However, we have identified that, for particular types of year and forecasting services, the anticipation time can be enlarged (e.g predicting wet years in December). Furthermore, we have found a direct relationship between the strength of the signal (number of ensemble members that predict the same type of year) and the forecasting skill, meaning that seasonal forecasts showing a strong signal, if properly identified, could offer valuable information months in advance to the beginning of the irrigation season.

Acknowledgements:

This study has received funding from the eGROUNDWATER project (GA n. 1921), part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. It has been also supported by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain and with EU FEDER funds.

How to cite: Rubio-Martin, A., Macian-Sorribes, H., Lopez-Perez, E., Garcia-Prats, A., Manzano-Juarez, J., Jimenez-Bello, M. A., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Forecasting groundwater pumping cap in an overexploited Mediterranean aquifer using seasonal meteorological forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12273, 2021.

An emerging literature evaluates the water management benefits of hydroclimatic forecasts with timescales of a few days to several months ahead. These studies rely on existing forecast products, which they compare to one another and to baseline scenarios, such as perfect forecast or usual climate or streamflow conditions. Results compare the different products and baselines, both in terms of forecast skill and in terms of value for water management. Yet, the means to systematically explore the link between forecast skill and value (e.g., in terms of water supply reliability or hydropower production) are hampered by the lack of techniques to generate synthetic forecasts that 1) are realistic in that they present similar statistical properties to existing products, and 2) foster productive two-ways conversations between the analysts and academics who propose new products and those who use them to inform decision-making, so they can determine where to focus further product development efforts.

This work proposes a methodology for generating forecasts from an existing product and existing hydroclimatic records (rainfall, temperature, streamflow…). It perfects and extends a recent synthetic forecast generation technique that deterministically generates a forecast for a point in the future with the desired bias and accuracy, using a linear combination of the quantity to predict with a predictor. It perfects it by proposing a methodology to generate a family of forecasts with desired skill and bias, for several of the most common skill measures, including mean absolute error and (root) mean square error. Generated synthetic forecasts are therefore based on existing products and retain their statistical properties while presenting improved skill. The skill improvement can apply to the whole forecast or only to targeted conditions, e.g., drought or flood conditions, or forecasts during and for a certain period of the year. This opens the doors to systematic exploration of the benefits of marginal forecast improvements. The technique is also extended to ensemble (or probabilistic) forecasts, to allow for generating synthetic ensembles with targeted improvements to the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS).

How to cite: Rougé, C.: Generating families of synthetic forecasts of different skills from an existing forecast product, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12367, 2021.

EGU21-5852 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

A generalized approach to generate synthetic short-to-medium range hydro-meteorological forecasts

Zachary Brodeur and Scott Steinschneider

Forecast informed operations hold great promise as a soft pathway to improve water resources system performance. Generating synthetic forecasts of hydro-meteorological variables is crucial for robust validation of this approach, as advanced numerical weather prediction hindcasts have a limited timespan (10-40 years) that is insufficient for assessing risk related to forecast-informed operations during extreme events. We develop a generalized error model for synthetic forecast generation that is applicable to a range of forecasted variables used in water resources management. The approach samples from the distribution of forecast errors over the available hindcast period and adds them to long records of observed data to generate synthetic forecasts. The approach utilizes the flexible Skew Generalized Error Distribution (SGED) to model marginal distributions of forecast errors that can exhibit heteroskedastic, auto-correlated, and non-Gaussian behavior. An empirical copula is used to capture covariance between variables and forecast lead times and across space. We demonstrate the method for medium-range forecasts across Northern California in two case studies for 1) streamflow and 2) temperature and precipitation, which are based on hindcasts from operational CONUS hydrologic and meteorological forecast models. The case studies highlight the flexibility of the model and its ability to emulate space-time structures in forecasts at scales critical for flood management. The proposed method is generalizable to other locations and computationally efficient, enabling fast generation of long synthetic forecast ensembles that are appropriate for the design and testing of forecast informed policy or characterization of forecast uncertainty for water resources risk analysis.

How to cite: Brodeur, Z. and Steinschneider, S.: A generalized approach to generate synthetic short-to-medium range hydro-meteorological forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5852, 2021.

EGU21-8281 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Decision support system for evaluation of available surface water resources for use in Slovenia – development of the basis 

Sašo Šantl, Anže Rojnik, Luka Javornik, Davor Rozman, and Katarina Zabret

According to the Water Law of the Republic of Slovenia anyone who wants to use water resources in addition to the general use (e.g. drinking, swimming and other recreational uses) needs to acquire a water right. Approving the water rights is in principal based on two conditions: (i) the discharge downstream from the withdrawal should be at least equal to ecologically acceptable flow and (ii) the withdrawal of the water should not influence the natural conditions or other already present uses and needs of water resources. Through the development of the system’s basis we have focused on the first condition, the hydrologically available water resources.

The information about the amount of the water in a river or a stream is provided by the discharge measurements, performed at locations of the water gauging stations by the Slovenian Environmental agency (ARSO). However, when granting a water permit, the location of certain water withdrawal can be anywhere along the watercourse. Therefore, we have tested seven advanced statistical models to connect characteristic discharges (mean and mean minimal discharge for a selected 30-year period) at measured points with attribute data describing the properties of the corresponding catchment. The 49 attribute values were gathered through analysis of spatial data in GIS environment and provided information about precipitation, temperature, geological structure, land use and water use in the area. According to the comparison of models performance we have selected the neural networks. They were used to estimate characteristic discharges in 340 selected points on the water courses all over the country. These values provide the basis for calculation of the ecologically acceptable flow and the amount of discharge available for use under certain terms. In addition, for the selected points (340 points) also the natural (reference) discharge was estimated as a discharge which would be observed without any water use present upstream. Simulations of natural discharge situation were performed for various scenarios and multiple selected test cases. The estimated differences between natural and measured discharge for selected points was than generalized for all the other points using the hierarchical clustering approach. So far the basic information about the amount of water available for use on watercourses with basins larger than 10 km2 was estimated. However, the project is ongoing with the focus on improving the models, including the complex interactions between surface waters and groundwaters, and taking into account the vulnerability of the natural environment and ecosystem services they provide as well as sectoral needs.

How to cite: Šantl, S., Rojnik, A., Javornik, L., Rozman, D., and Zabret, K.: Decision support system for evaluation of available surface water resources for use in Slovenia – development of the basis , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8281, 2021.

During the past three decades, the over-growing population of the south-east Asian countries is becoming a threat to the available potential water sources. This region also includes many developed as well as developing countries including Korea, China, Japan and India, and the higher rate of GDP growth also enhanced the living standard of people. As a result, the water scarcity has been increasing in various mega-cities of the region. Here, we present the assessment of grid-scale domestic water demand of each country by evaluating the gridded Domestic Structural Water Intensity (DSWI) over a period of 1995-2015 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. We estimated yearly grid-scale DSWI with using the past economic development based on GDP and the population. Considering the gridded water demand, we assessed the vulnerability of major river basins of the region and the few cities having more than one million population. A few mega-cities in India located in arid and semi-arid regions of the river basins are already experiencing water stress. Developing such gridded dataset will give a better shape to project the future water demand by integrating the datasets within a water demand module of any land surface models.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a grant from the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2020R1A2C2007670).

How to cite: Panda, M. R. and Kim, Y.: Estimating Gridded Domestic Water Demand and Assessing its Vulnerability over South-East Asian Countries, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7630, 2021.

EGU21-8757 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Characterizing Dam Induced Flood at Downstream of a Hydel Project 

Dipsikha Devi, Anupal Baruah, and Arup Kumar Sarma

Flooding due to sudden release from a hydropower dam during monsoon is becoming a serious concern for downstream locality, especially when there is lack of coordination between the dam authority and the Disaster Management Authority (DMA) at downstream. For hilly river, a disastrous flash flood is generally caused by short duration high intensity precipitation and a pondage hydropower project cannot attenuate such flood. Generally, reservoir simulation/optimization for a hydropower project is carried out on monthly, ten-daily or at best on daily basis to determine the best operating policy and to analyze impact of such operation on the flow scenario and therefore, in conventional analysis such flash flood event goes un-noticed. A detailed investigation of the downstream flooding is required before the construction of any hydropower project with at least on hourly basis to get insight into the impact of such inflow at downstream. Non-availability of short duration precipitation/flow data in interior project area, particularly in developing country hinder such analysis. Need and scope of such analysis is demonstrated by using a typical flow hydrograph of 48 hours, having two flood peaks, as inflow to the Lower Subansiri Hydroelectric Project (LSHP). The project is located in the Subansiri River, the largest tributary of the Brahmaputra River in India. Two operating policies; i) Standard Operating Policy (SOP) and ii) Dynamic Programming (DP) generated operating policy have been tested and both the polices have generated similar hourly flow time series of total reservoir outflow (spill + Release). These reservoir operation models have been coupled with the hydrodynamic model to route the hourly reservoir outflow from LSHP to a flood prone area located 13Km downstream of it. Post dam flood scenario thus generated is compared with the pre dam flood scenario by routing the same inflow hydrograph without considering the dam. As the river has an embankment, and flooding occurs only when the embankment fails, a specified water level at the downstream section has been considered as critical for flooding for the purpose of a comparative study.  For the considered inflow hydrograph, it is observed that the flood magnitude is not increased by the action of dam operation rather peaks get slightly attenuated. However, in natural condition without dam, flood rises gradually providing prior information to the locality and providing sufficient time for completing pre-disaster actions based on experience. With inclusion of dam, peak flow rises vary rapidly from a very low flow without showing any indication of flood beforehand and thus flood becomes more disastrous. Sudden fluctuation of water level can also cause failure of river bank and progressive bank failure can eventually cause the embankment to fail. The analysis has shown the possible impact of hydel project with more clarity to help disaster manager prepare mitigation measures in an informed way.

How to cite: Devi, D., Baruah, A., and Sarma, A. K.: Characterizing Dam Induced Flood at Downstream of a Hydel Project , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8757, 2021.

With more than 200 dams currently under construction in the Sub-Saharan region, hydropower is expected to dominate the African renewable energy market in the coming decades. Even though the construction of new dams has been widely recognized as a key factor in promoting energy security, damming rivers also augments the volume of stagnant water, inevitably enhancing the transmission of malaria by creating new vector breeding habitats. The interdependence between large dams and malaria transmission constitutes an extremely critical public health challenge in Africa. Nowadays, managing drawdown rates into reservoir operation as a malaria control measure appears a viable solution to reduce the spread of the virus near large reservoirs, notwithstanding undesirable outcomes in terms of hydropower generation. In this regard, recent technological developments in the field of floating solar photovoltaic installations open the path for flexible hydropower operation by boosting photovoltaic energy generation using the same electricity transmission infrastructure. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated framework, where the optimal floating solar sizing and reservoir operations are jointly designed for minimizing malaria diffusion without compromising the ability of the energy sector to fulfill energy demands. The framework employs Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search into a novel approach to floating solar photovoltaic size planning, which internalizes the operation design problem. The potential of the proposed framework is tested in the Zambezi river basin, where the Kariba dam is mainly operated for hydropower production, with considerable negative health effects in the proximity of the reservoir. Numerical results show that design alternatives coupling reservoir operation with floating solar photovoltaic largely dominates pure management solutions in terms of malaria spread and energy generation. Besides, the relatively limited (from 0.2 to 1.5% of the total lake area) optimal extent of the photovoltaic plant highlights the potential economic benefits of increasing the penetration of this technology in Sub-Saharan Africa, with capital costs balanced by boosted energy income within the first seven years from the initial investment.

How to cite: Amaranto, A. and Castelletti, A.: Joint design of floating solar plant and dam operating policies for waterborne epidemics control: an assessment on the Kariba dam, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2825, 2021.

EGU21-6234 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.1

Multi-objective Optimization of Catchment Reforestation Robust to Uncertainty in Bayesian-Calibrated Watershed Model Parameters

Jared Smith, Laurence Lin, Julianne Quinn, and Lawrence Band

Urban land expansion is expected for our changing world, which unmitigated will result in increased flooding and nutrient exports that already wreak havoc on the wellbeing of coupled human-natural systems worldwide. Reforestation of urbanized catchments is one green infrastructure strategy to reduce stormwater volumes and nutrient exports. Reforestation designs must balance the benefits of flood flow reduction against the costs of implementation and the chance to exacerbate droughts via reduction in recharge that supplies low flows. Optimal locations and numbers of trees depend on the spatial distribution of runoff and streamflow in a catchment; however, calibration data are often only available at the catchment outlet. Equifinal model parameterizations for the outlet can result in uncertainty in the locations and magnitudes of streamflows across the catchment, which can lead to different optimal reforestation designs for different parameterizations.

Multi-objective robust optimization (MORO) has been proposed to discover reforestation designs that are robust to such parametric model uncertainty. However, it has not been shown that this actually results in better decisions than optimizing to a single, most likely parameter set, which would be less computationally expensive. In this work, the utility of MORO is assessed by comparing reforestation designs optimized using these two approaches with reforestation designs optimized to a synthetic true set of hydrologic model parameters. The spatially-distributed RHESSys ecohydrological model is employed for this study of a suburban-forested catchment in Baltimore County, Maryland, USA. Calibration of the model’s critical parameters is completed using a Bayesian framework to estimate the joint posterior distribution of the parameters. The Bayesian framework estimates the probability that different parameterizations generated the synthetic streamflow data, allowing the MORO process to evaluate reforestation portfolios across a probability-weighted sample of parameter sets in search of solutions that are robust to this uncertainty.

Reforestation portfolios are designed to minimize flooding, low flow intensity, and construction costs (number of trees). Comparing the Pareto front obtained from using MORO with the Pareto fronts obtained from optimizing to the estimated maximum a posteriori (MAP) parameter set and the synthetic true parameter set, we find that MORO solutions are closer to the synthetic solutions than are MAP solutions. This illustrates the value of considering parametric uncertainty in designing robust water systems despite the additional computational cost.

How to cite: Smith, J., Lin, L., Quinn, J., and Band, L.: Multi-objective Optimization of Catchment Reforestation Robust to Uncertainty in Bayesian-Calibrated Watershed Model Parameters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6234, 2021.

HS5.2.2 – Groundwater resources management: reconciling demand, high quality resources and sustainability

EGU21-419 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Application of DPSIR method for integrated management of the transboundary aquifer in Prespa-Ohrid basin

Konstantinos Voudouris, Emanuela Kiri, Hamza Reci, and Elpida Kolokytha

The transboundary aquifers are of utmost importance to sustain water supply in present days. The exploitation of these aquifers has to be only in a sustainable and rational way, in order to sustain the quantity and quality of the aquifers' groundwater. A transboundary aquifer is developed in karstified limestones between the lakes Great Prespa (shared between North Macedonia, Albania, and Greece ) and Ohrid (shared between North Macedonia and Albania). The karst mountainous area is characterized by the presence of numerous crevices, sinkholes, as surface forms, and caves, canals, etc., as underground forms. The elevation of Prespa Lake is about 153 m higher than that of Ohrid Lake, and the two lakes represent a common hydraulic system, protected by international conventions. Prespa Lake is characterized by a continuous decline in water level during the last decades. The transboundary karstic aquifer is a complex system, discharging through numerous karstic springs (e.g., Saint Naum, Tushemisht, etc.), and operating as a hydrocollector and hydroconductor between the lakes. The aquifer is vulnerable to external pollution, as well as to climate changes affecting the lakes’ ecosystems. Agriculture, livestock, and tourism are the main activities in the wider area.

The DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) model, adopted by European Environmental Agency, was applied in GIS context, in order to study and analyze the main causes of pressures and to optimize the measures for integrated aquifer management. In addition, the aim of DPSIR technique is the correlation of the driving forces and pressures with the present status of the complex hydraulic system and finally to optimize the aquifer management. The major driving forces that affect the Prespa-Ohrid basin are the irrigated agriculture, the livestock, the tourism development, and population growth. The main pressures are the overexploitation of the aquifer, water pollution, and the decline of the water level of Lake Prespa.

Based on the results of DPSIR, a set of measures and appropriate policy responses are proposed. Finally, DPSIR is a valuable tool for local authorities and administrators in order to plan and implement strategies for integrated and sustainable management of the transboundary karst aquifer and its dependent ecosystems.

How to cite: Voudouris, K., Kiri, E., Reci, H., and Kolokytha, E.: Application of DPSIR method for integrated management of the transboundary aquifer in Prespa-Ohrid basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-419, 2021.

EGU21-702 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

The impact of urbanization and rapid population growth on the groundwater regime in Dhaka city, Bangladesh

Mazeda Islam, Marc Van Camp, Delwar Hossain, Md. Mizanur Rahman Sarker, Shahina Khatun, and Kristine Walraevens

Dhaka city with an area of about 306 Km2 and a population of more than 20 million is located in the central part of Bangladesh. Immense and prolonged groundwater abstraction due to rapid unplanned urbanization and population blast in this city have led to significant decline in groundwater level in the last three decades. 78% of the supplied water comprises groundwater from the Dupi Tila Sandstone aquifer system. Hydrogeological and geophysical data aided to the delineation of three different aquifers (based on lithology): Upper Dupi Tila aquifer (UDA), Middle Dupi Tila aquifer (MDA) and Lower Dupi Tila aquifer (LDA).  The evaluation of long-term hydrographs, piezometric maps and synthetic graphical overviews of piezometric trends in both the UDA and MDA depicts that the rate of dropping of groundwater level (GWL) is very substantial. Massive pumping in the city has altered its natural hydrologic system. The groundwater level has dropped on average 2.25 m/year and 2.8 m/year in UDA and MDA, respectively, in the whole city in 2018, whereas the average rate of decline in the center of the depression cone during this time was 4.0 m/year and 5.74 m/year respectively. Presently, the groundwater level elevation has declined to levels lower than -85 and -65 m PWD in UDA and MDA, respectively. The changes in pattern and magnitude of depression cones in UDA and MDA are directly associated with the city expansion and number of deep tube wells installed over a certain period in particular parts of the city. The depletion of GWL from 1980 to 2018 is very notable. There is only limited vertical recharge possible in the UDA and MDA as they are semi-confined aquifers, and only lateral flow mostly in the UDA and MDA from the surroundings is to be expected. In this regard the long-term management of groundwater resources in Dhaka city is urgently needed, otherwise the condition may go beyond control.

 

Key words: Groundwater abstraction, city expansion, hydrographs, piezometric maps, GWL decline, depression cone.

How to cite: Islam, M., Van Camp, M., Hossain, D., Sarker, Md. M. R., Khatun, S., and Walraevens, K.: The impact of urbanization and rapid population growth on the groundwater regime in Dhaka city, Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-702, 2021.

EGU21-9958 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Stakeholder perception for groundwater management from a subsidence point of view in the Guadalentín Valley (Spain)

María Inés Navarro-Hernández, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Javier Valdes-Abellan, Pablo Ezquerro, Concepción Pla, Claudia Meisina, Guadalupe Bru, and Roberto Tomás

Land subsidence produced from the exhaustive groundwater exploitation is a phenomenon that has critical effects in many areas around the world, especially in water-scarce areas. Among the objectives of the RESources managEment by integrating eaRth observation deriVed monitoring and flOw modelIng Results (RESERVOIR) project (GA nº 1924), one of them is the identification of the stakeholder requirements and groundwater conceptual model setup for several pilot sites. The present work is related with the Alto Guadalentín aquifer study case (SE Spain). To achieve the mentioned objective, a workshop was organized and a large number of potential stakeholders from local authorities, environmental agency, water supply companies, NGOs, insurance companies and regulatory institutions were summoned. During the workshop most important RESERVOIR activities were presented. Once the workshop was finished, a questionnaire that proposes the evaluation of the main problems in the area related to the groundwater management was sent to all participants. Results disclose that 55% of stakeholders consider that the principal problem in the Guadalentín aquifer is the overexploitation, and 50% of stakeholders regard that the lack of managerial, planning, and technical instruments are the most relevant issues to be addressed and solved. In more detail, the survey reveals that the monitoring coverage is inadequate in terms of: (a) groundwater levels monitoring (50%); (b) water quality measurement frequency (40%); and (c) water quality measurement points spatial distribution (55%) Even that area is reporting the highest subsidence rates in Europe, this problem is not considered as the most important, probably because affects agricultural areas and minimal damages were reported. Finally, 90% of the stakeholders have previous knowledge about groundwater modelling, but only 45% within them have information about the specific applications for which the model is employed in the Alto Guadalentín aquifer. Main conclusion leads to confirm that the measurements taken in the past have proved to be insufficient to reverse the state of the overexploitation of the aquifer. From this, some management measures must be strengthened, and several technical tools should be introduced to improve the groundwater management. On the other hand, improving the use of the numerical model of the Alto Guadalentín aquifer to support decision-making, as well as, updating the model by coupling it with the subsidence phenomenon through the definition of subsidence risk indexes would lead to a sustainable and holistic groundwater management.

How to cite: Navarro-Hernández, M. I., Guardiola-Albert, C., Valdes-Abellan, J., Ezquerro, P., Pla, C., Meisina, C., Bru, G., and Tomás, R.: Stakeholder perception for groundwater management from a subsidence point of view in the Guadalentín Valley (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9958, 2021.

EGU21-10192 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

From the hydrogeological and geochemical conceptualisation to the groundwater management: the Gioia Tauro Plain (Southern Italy)

Giuseppe Cianflone, Giovanni Vespasiano, Rosanna De Rosa, Carmine Apollaro, Rocco Dominici, and Maurizio Polemio

The Gioia Tauro plain (GTP) is an industrialized and agricultural coastal area of about 500 km2 in the Tyrrhenian side of Calabria. Its harbour is one of the most important container traffic hubs in the Mediterranean basin. The GTP groundwater resources are constantly at risk of depletion and quality degradation due to anthropic activities.

GTP is a half-graben bounded by two massifs. The boundaries are marked by three main fault systems: the Nicotera-Gioiosa fault zone, NW-SE striking and right lateral kinematics along the north boundary; the NNE-SSW Cittanova Fault, a high-angle normal and active fault along the eastern border; the Palmi-Locri fault zone with NW-SE trend and a mainly strike-slip kinematics along the south boundary. The GTP sedimentary infill is made by an upper Miocene siliciclastic and carbonate succession overlays by Pliocene marly-limestone rhytmites and Piacenzian-Calabrian sandstones and calcarenites with interbedded 20m thick volcaniclastic deposits. Upward, the sedimentary infill continues with alluvial (in eastern and middle sector) and coastal (in the western sector) deposits.

Six geochemical facies of groundwater were distinguished, with different salinities and temperatures (Italiano et al., 2010). The majority of samples is of cold shallow groundwater and shows Ca-HCO3, Ca(Mg-Na)-HCO3(Cl-SO4) and Na-HCO3 composition and overall low salinities (TDS <1g / L). Only few samples, with Na-SO4 and Na-Cl composition, show high salinity (TDS <3.5g / L) and temperature (above 20 ° C). These latter occur in the northern portion of the plain, near the intersection of the Palmi-Gioia Tauro and Nicotera-Gioiosa faults systems, and in the southern sector, near Palmi town.

It was created a geodatabase using data of hundreds of boreholes, geotechnical and geophysical investigations. Furthermore, it is carrying out a geological and geophysical survey along the plain boundaries using passive seismic technique to infer the deep of discontinuities among the main geological units described above. The acquired data allowed to identify: i) the shallow aquifer, made by Pleistocene-Holocene deposits characterized by complex lateral variations; ii) at the bottom, the aquitard, represented by Pliocene marls; iii) the deep aquifer, consisting of the upper Miocene succession. The highest thickness of shallow aquifer (more than 200 m) is observed in the middle GTP sector. The thickness variation is strictly related to the NE-SW high angle normal faults which cross the GTP. The ongoing geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys will allow: i) to identify the geometry of the hydrogeological units; ii) to define the hydrogeological features of the groundwater systems useful for modelling purposes, and iii) to improve the knowledge of water rock interactions processes (e.g., relations between deep and shallow waters, anthropogenic effects, seawater intrusion) for management purposes.

Italiano, F. et al. 2010. Geochemistry of fluids discharged over the seismic area of the Southern Apennines (Calabria region, Southern Italy): Implications for fluid-fault relationships. Appl. Geochem. 25, 540–554.

How to cite: Cianflone, G., Vespasiano, G., De Rosa, R., Apollaro, C., Dominici, R., and Polemio, M.: From the hydrogeological and geochemical conceptualisation to the groundwater management: the Gioia Tauro Plain (Southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10192, 2021.

EGU21-12818 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Using an Extreme Gradient Boosting Learner for Mapping Hydrogeochemical Parameters in Germany

Maximilian Nölscher and Stefan Broda

Information on the spatial distribution of hydrogeochemical parameters is crucial for decision making. Machine learning based methods for the mapping of hydrogeochemical parameter concentrations have been already studied for many years to evolve from deterministic and geostatistical interpolation methods. However, the reflection of all relevant processes that the target variable depends on is often difficult to achieve, because of the mostly insufficient determination and/or availability of features. This is especially true if you limit yourself to freely accessible data.

In this study, we apply an extreme gradient boosting learner (XGB) to map major ion concentrations across Germany. The training data consist of water samples from approximately 50K observation wells across Germany and a wide range of environmental data as predictors. The water samples were collected between the 1950s and 2005 at anthropogenically undisturbed locations.

The environmental data includes hydrogeological units and parameters, soil type, lithology, digital elevation model (DEM) and DEM derived parameters etc. The values of these features at the respective water sample location were extracted on the basis of a polygon, approximately representing the area that has an impact on the target variable (ion concentration). For a comparison, different polygon shapes are used.

The model was set up as chained multioutput regression, meaning that the prediction of the previous model in a linear sequence of single-output models is used as input for the subsequent model.

The results are planned to serve for a comparison with state-of-the-art deep learning architectures.

How to cite: Nölscher, M. and Broda, S.: Using an Extreme Gradient Boosting Learner for Mapping Hydrogeochemical Parameters in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12818, 2021.

EGU21-8992 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Subirrigation as measure for climate change adaptation: from technological development and participatory monitoring to guidelines for implementation

R.P. (Ruud) Bartholomeus, J.A. (Janine) de Wit, M.H.J. (Marjolein) van Huijgevoort, G.A.P.H. (Gé) van den Eertwegh, B.C. (Bas) Breman, E. (Esther) Brakkee, and P.B. (Bas) Worm

We are increasingly confronted with drought damage in agriculture and nature (both terrestrial and aquatic). Parallel, the pressure increases on the availability of water for high-grade applications such as the production of drinking water. Strategies are being developed to manage these risks and to secure supplies of freshwater to all water users in the long term. This includes increasing regional self-sufficiency to better match supply with demand for freshwater and improving the utilization of the available freshwater sources. We provide results of pilot studies in which surface water and treated wastewater (both from domestic and industrial origin), that are usually discharged from the drainage basin, are used for local-scale water supply by subirrigation. The use of these freshwater sources for subirrigation purposes may be an effective strategy to contribute to both improved water availability for crops and a reduced pressure on the regional groundwater system. However, besides technological field-scale knowledge, a proper knowledge base for both farmers and regional water authorities about the propagation of the measure through the water system is required for responsible implementation of the measure.

Subirrigation is a subsurface irrigation method that can be more efficient than classical surface irrigation methods. The main reason is that only water that is used for plant transpiration leaves the soil and groundwater system. Unused water is kept within the groundwater system. For a farmer, the goal of subirrigation is to raise the groundwater level and increase the soil moisture availability for plant growth through capillary rise. For a water manager, subirrigation limits the use of groundwater for surface sprinkler irrigation and unused surplus water may additionally recharge the regional groundwater system. However, the freshwater availability for subirrigation is generally limited and subirrigation could lead to negative impacts to other users of the water system and the water system itself, if not implemented and managed well. Additionally, it is of great importance to pay attention to cooperation between farmers and regional water authorities on water use and availability.

Large-scale subirrigation affects the regional allocation of water resources. Therefore, an analysis of the propagation of subirrigation management through the local to regional hydrological system is required to support water managers. Moreover, stakeholders need to be actively involved in order to get feedback and trust. Therefore, we provide results of i) pilot studies quantifying the physical aspects of subirrigation, including the gross and net water use. Results are shown in Sankey-flow diagrams providing a clear visualization of the propagation of water use by subirrigation through the water system and impact (both positive and negative) on the water balance and water availability for other e.g. downstream users, ii) participatory monitoring and evaluation, guiding both farmers and regional water authorities to a responsible and sound implementation of subirrigation systems.

 

How to cite: Bartholomeus, R. P. (., de Wit, J. A. (., van Huijgevoort, M. H. J. (., van den Eertwegh, G. A. P. H. (., Breman, B. C. (., Brakkee, E. (., and Worm, P. B. (.: Subirrigation as measure for climate change adaptation: from technological development and participatory monitoring to guidelines for implementation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8992, 2021.

EGU21-1747 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Water potentiality and quality decay of carbonate aquifers of Monti Picentini Regional Park (Southern Italy) 

Alfredo Trocciola, Renato Somma, Sabino Aquino, and Antonio Aquino

The underground aquifers present in the carbonate massifs of the Monti Picentini Regional Park, captured for various uses (drinking, irrigation and industrial) constitute a fundamental resource to which the Campania, Puglia and Basilicata regions owe a large part of their development. The importance of these deep aquifers is even more evident if we consider that practically all the large aqueducts in southern Italy are fed by them. In particular, the Acquedotto Pugliese S.p.a represents the water resource coming from different resources such us springs located in Campania, artificial reservoirs thanks to potabilizers that make it of excellent quality and extraction from the deep aquifer through wells. This system of large adduction, among the longest in the world (about 5,000 km), ensures the supply of drinking water. The aqueduct of Acqua Bene Comune Napoli S.p.a.  serves over 2,000,000 citizens directly (city of Naples) or indirectly (sub-distributor municipalities) for approximately 295,000 users and with around 200 km of water supply pipeline. And finally, the company Alto Calore Servizi S.p.A. manages the collection, adduction and distribution of drinking water for 125 municipalities in the provinces of Avellino and Benevento, as well as sewerage and purification services for a population of approximately 450,000 inhabitants (approximately 213,500 users). The articulated hydrogeological structure of the territory and the multiplicity of agencies operating and interfering in the management of water resources, necessarily require a well embedded, short and long term planning of the use of groundwater. Considering that the planning must be based on the real potentialities of the aquifers and on the principle of sustainability of the resource, it must facilitate, at interregional level, the processes of interchangeability between the various network systems and guarantee quality and quantity of the resource for multiple socio-economic needs of the users. Moreover, the pollution of these water sources is increasingly manifesting itself as controls become more systematic and comprehensive. This is due to the high number of residential and industrial settlements in the study areas, the massive presence of livestock farms, intensive agriculture, the failure to complete the sewerage networks and therefore the high number of uncollected discharges, the failure to reclaim polluted land. It has been ascertained, in particular, in large areas of the high plain or even of alluvial origin, a significant increase in the concentration of nitrates, for example in the plain of Dragone in the countryside of Volturara Irpina (AV) the values often exceed the limit of 50 mg/l imposed by Italian legal limits for drinking water and are almost constantly over the threshold of attention. Even more alarming is the finding of heavy metals (iron, lead, copper, cadmium, aluminium, trivalent and hexavalent chromium) in some alluvial aquifers (Valley of Solofrana Torrent). In the present work, through the integrated analysis of geological, geochemical and hydrogeological data, found over the last thirty years, we analyzed the causes and relationships that link the factors of propagation of pollutants in the different groundwater bodies.

How to cite: Trocciola, A., Somma, R., Aquino, S., and Aquino, A.: Water potentiality and quality decay of carbonate aquifers of Monti Picentini Regional Park (Southern Italy) , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1747, 2021.

EGU21-13840 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Assessing groundwater management sustainability of coastal cities by utilizing the City Blueprint Approach 

Khawon Lee, Sun Woo Chang, and Jeryang Park

    Groundwater is the largest freshwater resource available on Earth, and many coastal regions are depending on groundwater as a primary freshwater source. For example, in Busan and Incheon, two of the largest coastal cities in South Korea, 5.7% and 7.0% of freshwater uses are from groundwater while only 1.8% is from groundwater in Seoul, the capital of the country. Globally, groundwater availability is diminishing primarily by population increase, and especially in coastal regions, this problem is exacerbated by overexploitation and seawater intrusion, which causes groundwater contamination and further reduces its availability. Here, we view the groundwater system and its management for sustainability as a complex problem that is associated with various social, economic, and environmental factors. By adopting the City Blueprint Approach (CBA), which has been used extensively for assessing the sustainability of integrated water management of numerous cities on the globe, we identify water management factors that potentially have direct and indirect links and feedbacks with groundwater variables. We selected Busan and Incheon as case studies for coastal cities that are facing the risk of groundwater salinization by seawater intrusion. This study aims to 1) assess City Blueprint (CB) of selected coastal cities, 2) identify major factors for coastal groundwater management through correlation analysis, and 3) suggest management options regarding identified factors for sustainable groundwater management of the study areas. Our results on CB indicate that the groundwater quality and quantity of the selected cities are currently in ‘good’ status. Also, from the correlation analysis, we identified heat risk and freshwater scarcity as the major factors that potentially can affect groundwater quantity. For groundwater quality, the factors of voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and rule of law and control of corruption, most of which had not been explicitly considered for groundwater management, were identified as the major factors. Some of these factors were assessed from ‘little concern’ to ‘very concern’ for both cities. These results indicate that, regarding the linkages between groundwater variables and other factors in concern, more actions beyond environmental factors should be taken for sustainable groundwater management. This study helps to understand how non-conventional factors could contribute to coastal groundwater, and can provide extensive options for sustainable groundwater management.

 

Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Development program of Minimizing of Climate Change Impact Technology through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Korean government (Ministry of Science and ICT) (NRF-2020M3H5A1080775).

How to cite: Lee, K., Chang, S. W., and Park, J.: Assessing groundwater management sustainability of coastal cities by utilizing the City Blueprint Approach , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13840, 2021.

EGU21-2128 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2 | Highlight

Hydrogeological characterization and groundwater quality assessment in an atoll island (Magoodhoo Island of Faafu Atoll - Maldives)

Chiara Zanotti, Barbara Leoni, Veronica Nava, Luca Fallati, Marco Rotiroti, and Tullia Bonomi

Although freshwater is a vital resource for domestic and productive purposes, it is a very limited and vulnerable resource on atoll islands. Besides precipitations, on coral atolls groundwater is the only source of fresh water, usually extending below sea level in the form of a thin fresh water lens. Several possible environmental hazard can affect the availability of the resource, ranging from salinization induced by overexploitation to deterioration induced by unsustainable land use. Therefore, it becomes important to understand and characterize atolls’ islands aquifers and identify sustainable and hazardous practices to support a wise and farsighted resource management.

In this work a detailed characterization of the aquifer of Magoodhoo Island (Faafu Atoll – Maldives) is performed, through a hydrogeological mapping and groundwater quality characterization.

The Magoodhoo Island, with an area of 0.213 km2, is a typical and representative native inhabited island (c.a. 850 people) not affected by intense tourist traffic.

In order to collect topographic data, a drone survey was performed, with a fly altitude set at 80 m a.s.l. to reach a 4 cm ground pixel resolution obtaining a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), with a resolution of 10 cm.

Groundwater depth (m a.s.l.) was measured in 37 monitoring wells using a water level dipper to obtain a piezometric map of the aquifer. Furthermore, two CTD-diver were used to measure groundwater depth in a monitoring well and tidal oscillation of the sea level simultaneously with a time-resolution of 15 minutes for 5 days.

Groundwater quality data were collected in 36 monitoring point, including a rainwater tank and analysed for physico-chemical parameters including water temperature  (T), electrical conductivity (EC), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and DO saturation (DO%), major ions (Cl, NO3-N, NO2-N, NH4-N, total phosphorus (TP), Si, SO4, Ca, Mg, Na, Sr, and K) and metals/semi-metals (As, Pb, Ni, Fe, Mn and Zn).

Results show that groundwater depth varies spatially from around 1 m a.s.l. in the north-eastern part (ocean side) to -1.2 m a.s.l. in the central-western part. On the time scale, a good correlation between groundwater level and tidal fluctuations is observed and a tidal lag of about 3.5 hours was determined through a cross-correlation analysis.

Groundwater quality data highlighted different pollution point sources. The main impact on water quality was related to domestic activities producing a great amount of organic matter and wastewater. Other cases of local pollution were identified and associated to farm (poultry) and gardening activities (fertilization).

This study allowed for an in-depth knowledge of the Maghoodoo island aquifer system, which can be extended to other Maldivian and atoll islands constituting a valuable support for future water resource planning and management.

How to cite: Zanotti, C., Leoni, B., Nava, V., Fallati, L., Rotiroti, M., and Bonomi, T.: Hydrogeological characterization and groundwater quality assessment in an atoll island (Magoodhoo Island of Faafu Atoll - Maldives), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2128, 2021.

Coastal agricultural watersheds face complex problems of water quantity and quality.  In many coastal agricultural watersheds, the problems arise from: i) the limited use of surface water, ii) the excessive groundwater abstractions for irrigation, and iii) the over-fertilization practices for crop yield magnification. These complex and interrelated problems may be studied by using an integrated modelling system of surface water and groundwater able to simulate the processes regarding the quantity and quality of water. In this study, water resources management and agronomic scenarios are developed for the evaluation of the quantity and quality of the groundwater system of the semi-arid coastal agricultural Almyros Basin, in Thessaly, Greece. The historical and current unsustainable irrigation and fertilization practices, the groundwater abstractions, and the limited use of surface water reservoirs have caused a large water deficit of the aquifer system, groundwater nitrate contamination and seawater intrusion, resulting in severe degradation of water resources. Land use change and agronomic scenarios, as well as, reservoir operation scenarios, are combined and simulated using an integrated modelling system.   The Integrated Modelling System consists of coupled models of: surface hydrology (UTHBAL), groundwater flow (MODFLOW), agronomic practices and nitrate leaching (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS based EPIC model), nitrate transport (MT3DMS), and seawater intrusion (SEAWAT). The models have been calibrated and validated against observations/measurements of various variables, e.g. groundwater table levels, crop yields, nitrate concentrations and chloride concentrations.  The feasibility of the simulation of the various scenarios have been, also, evaluated with indices of Crop Water Productivity (CWP), Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) and Economic Water Productivity (EWP).

How to cite: Lyra, A., Loukas, A., Voudouris, K., and Mylopoulos, N.: Evaluation of water resources management and agronomic scenarios using an integrated modelling system for coastal agricultural watersheds: The case of Almyros Basin, Thessaly, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13137, 2021.

EGU21-906 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Geochemical characterization of groundwater and saltwater intrusion processes along the Luy River, Binh Thuan, Vietnam

Linh PHAM Dieu, Diep Cong Thi, Robin Thibaut, Marieke Paepen, Tom Segers, Huyen Dang Thi, Hieu Ho Huu, Frederic Nguyen, and Thomas Hermans

KEYWORDS: Saltwater intrusion, Geochemistry, Groundwater extraction  

ABSTRACT: With an average annual rainfall of 800-1150 mm/year, the Binh Thuan province is one of the driest places in Vietnam. The quantity and quality of groundwater play a significant role in the agriculture, aquaculture development and daily life of the local communities. In 2012, the national center for water resources (Nawapi, 2012) delineated the seawater intrusion extent in Binh Thuan based on the total dissolved solids (TDS) content of water samples taken from shallow boreholes. The threshold of 3g/L and 1.5g/L were exceeded in the estuaries of the Luy, Long Song and Ca Ty rivers. In recent years, the prolonged droughts combined with the sea level rise and the over-extraction of groundwater during the dry season increased dramatically the seawater intrusion process especially in the estuaries of the province.

The geochemistry of groundwater in the Luy River catchment was studied to investigate the contamination of the aquifers and identify the processes taking place. From 1991 to 2015, 98 water samples had been taken from the wells in the area in both dry and rainy seasons. 71% of the water samples were fresh while 21% and 5% were lightly saline and moderately saline respectively. In summer 2020, 110 new water samples from both shallow and deep wells were collected in the Luy river catchment in wells from 3m to 40m. The TDS values are ranging from 105 to 23080 mg/L and can be classified into 4 groups: freshwater (48%), slightly saline (40%), moderately saline (8%) and very saline (4%). The samples show that the seawater intrusion expands not only horizontally at shallow depth along the river but also deeper down the aquifer in most of the study area, what is also confirmed by geophysical data. Freshwater samples were mostly collected at a depth lower than 10m. The chemical composition of water samples were analyzed showing evidence of seawater intrusion, but also the occurrence of freshening processes within the study area. Together with the presence of saltwater at larger depths, this points towards a situation more complex than previously thought. Saltwater intrusions are likely not only related to interaction with the river estuary, but also to the presence of fossil saltwater in the aquifer, and to groundwater pumping and irrigation practices.

REFERENCES

NAWAPI. 2012. Hydrogeological mapping at scale 1:50000 in Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan provinces. In Vietnamese. 

 

*Corresponding Author. Email: Linh.PhamDieu@UGent.be

How to cite: PHAM Dieu, L., Cong Thi, D., Thibaut, R., Paepen, M., Segers, T., Dang Thi, H., Ho Huu, H., Nguyen, F., and Hermans, T.: Geochemical characterization of groundwater and saltwater intrusion processes along the Luy River, Binh Thuan, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-906, 2021.

EGU21-9991 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Groundwater and salinization risk: tapping works and management experience in the Mediterranean Area

Giorgio De Giorgio, Livia Emanuela Zuffianò, and Maurizio Polemio

The progressive population growth in coastal areas constitutes a huge worldwide problem, particularly relevant for coastal aquifers of the Mediterranean basin.

The increasing use of groundwater and the effect of seawater intrusion makes the study of coastal aquifers extremely relevant.

There are various measures, practices, and actions throughout the world for managing groundwater when this natural resource is subject to salinization risk.

This research focused on the seawater intrusion, classifies the different practical solutions protecting the groundwater through salinization mitigation and/or groundwater salinity improvements along the Mediterranean Area.

The literature review was based on 300 papers, which are mainly international journal articles (76%). The rest includes conference papers (11.8%), reports and theses (7%), and books or chapters of a book (25%).

Three main schematic groundwater management approaches can be distinguished for the use of groundwater resources at risk of salinization.

The engineering approaches pursue locally the discharge increase avoiding or controlling the salinity increase.

The most recent experiences of tapping submarine springs were realized using underground concrete dams, tools shaped like a parachute or tulip, or a fiberglass telescopic tube-bell, especially in the case of karstic aquifers.

The current widespread form of the engineering approach is to address the issue of groundwater exploitation by wells.

More complex solutions use subhorizontal designs. Subhorizontal tapping schemes were realized using tunneling and/or boring in combination with wide-diameter wells or shafts.

These works include horizontal drains or radial tunnels bored inside the saturated aquifer, shafts excavated down to the sea level with radial galleries or drains realized together with weirs to improve the regulation of the discharge rate and of salinization. Application of these solutions in areas where a thin fresh groundwater lens floats on the saline groundwater, as in the case of narrow and highly permeable islands, can yield high discharges, thus causing a very low drawdown over very wide areas. These solutions were successfully applied in Malta Islands.

The discharge management approach encompasses at least an entire coastal aquifer and defines rules concerning groundwater utilization and well discharge.

A multi-methodological approach based on monitoring networks, spatiotemporal analysis of groundwater quality changes, and multiparameter well logging is described in Apulian karstic coastal aquifers (Italy). The core is the definition of the salinity threshold value between pure fresh groundwater and saline groundwater mixture. The basic tools were defined to be simple and cost-effective to be applicable to the widest range of situations.

The water and land management approach should be applied on a regional scale. The main choice for this approach is pursuing water-saving measures and water demand adaptation. A multiple-users and multiple-resources-water supply system model was implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of the increasing maximum capacity of the surface reservoir and managed aquifer recharge in Apulia, a semi-arid region of Southern Italy.

How to cite: De Giorgio, G., Zuffianò, L. E., and Polemio, M.: Groundwater and salinization risk: tapping works and management experience in the Mediterranean Area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9991, 2021.

EGU21-7495 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Effect of artificial recharge on submarine groundwater discharge: a Belgian case study

Marieke Paepen, Kristine Walraevens, and Thomas Hermans

The Belgian coastal phreatic aquifer is mostly characterized by salty/brackish pore water at shallow depth. The eolian dunes delimiting the sandy beach are one of the few locations where fresh potable water can be found. The drinking water demand of the coastal region is putting high pressure on these water resources, especially during the touristic summer season. Also, the dryer summers that were faced over the last years increase the need for solutions.

At Oostduinkerke, the Intercommunale Waterleidingsmaatschappij van Veurne-Ambacht (IWVA) combines the pumping of groundwater in the dunes with artificial surface (since 2002) and underground recharge (since 2014) for more sustainable exploitation. The infiltrating water is treated effluent from a nearby sewage treatment plant (Aquafin, Wulpen). The recharge in the dunes reduces the risk of attracting salty/brackish water from the North Sea and the lower lying polder area in the South and allows for more stable groundwater levels, especially around the infiltration lake.

To assess the efficiency of the managed aquifer recharge project, we collected electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data offshore, on the beach, and part of the dunes. Marine continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) were performed during both low and high tide. The latter provide a good overlap with the land ERT. The profiles were collected in front of the IWVA site, as well as, to the west and east, to assess the lateral variation of the salt-freshwater distribution in the aquifer. Based on the electrical resistivity distribution, we are able to identify the patterns of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and saltwater intrusion in the study area.

The infiltration of treated wastewater directly affects the piezometric levels of the surrounding area. Before the exploitation started in the dunes (1947), the natural freshwater heads were higher west of the infiltration area, due to the presence of a shallow clay layer (Vandenbohede et al., 2008). The higher hydraulic heads are also seen on recent groundwater models (Lebbe, 2017), but despite the larger hydraulic gradient in the West, the pore water resistivity seems to be higher in front of the IWVA site based on our data. Also, the zone of discharge is found below the low water line in front of the infiltration site, while it is seen on the beach to the west and east. We can assume that the SGD flux is largest in front of the recharge site (Paepen et al., 2020). Therefore, SGD seems to be enhanced by artificial recharge in this area. Further research is needed to validate this.

Lebbe, L. (2017). Grondwatermodel van de geplande wijzigingen in waterwinning Sint-André. Opdrachtgever: Intercommunale Waterleidingsmaatschappij van Veurne Ambacht (IWVA).

Paepen, M., Hanssens, D., Smedt, P. D., Walraevens, K., & Hermans, T. (2020). Combining resistivity and frequency domain electromagnetic methods to investigate submarine groundwater discharge in the littoral zone. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(7), 3539-3555.

Vandenbohede, A., Van Houtte, E., & Lebbe, L. (2009). Sustainable groundwater extraction in coastal areas: a Belgian example. Environmental Geology, 57(4): 735-747.

How to cite: Paepen, M., Walraevens, K., and Hermans, T.: Effect of artificial recharge on submarine groundwater discharge: a Belgian case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7495, 2021.

EGU21-9366 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Major ion composition and 87Sr/86Sr of groundwater in the coastal Gujarat alluvial plain, India

Abul Qasim and Satinder Pal Singh

Major ions, Sr concentration, and 87Sr/86Sr have been analyzed in groundwater of the coastal Gujarat Alluvial Plain, collected during monsoon, post-monsoon, and pre-monsoon seasons of 2016–2017. The major objective of this study was to understand the regional groundwater salinization mechanism. In the study area, the groundwater is mostly characterized by Na-Cl facies, with few samples of Ca-Cl, Ca-Mg-Cl, Na-Ca-HCO3, and Ca-Mg-HCO3 types. Whereas, the Narmada and the Tapi river water samples are particularly of Ca-Mg-HCO3 type. The hydrogeochemical facies evolution (HFE) diagram depicts the coastal groundwater freshening irrespective of the season ruling out the lateral seawater intrusion far inland. However, the 87Sr/86Sr and Br/Cl ratios strongly suggest the modern marine influence on the regional groundwater. In the plot of 1/Sr versus 87Sr/86Sr, most of the groundwater samples fall on the binary mixing line between the seepage groundwater and modern seawater endmembers. Therefore, we suspect that the up-coning of recently trapped seawater by groundwater over-extraction is the most plausible reason for the groundwater salinization, which indicate the vulnerability of the coastal Gujarat alluvial plain to the near future sea ingress under the global warming scenario. A few exceptional groundwater samples far north of the Narmada River show more radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr indicative of silicate weathering.

How to cite: Qasim, A. and Singh, S. P.: Major ion composition and 87Sr/86Sr of groundwater in the coastal Gujarat alluvial plain, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9366, 2021.

EGU21-9767 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Evolution of Groundwater in Coastal Aquifers of Southwest Bangladesh

Md. Mizanur Rahman Sarker, Marc Van Camp, Delwar Hossain, Mazeda Islam, Md. Abdul Quaiyum Bhuiyan, Md. Ariful Ahsan, George Bennett, and Kristine Walraevens

Groundwater development in coastal aquifers of southwest Bangladesh is challenged by both natural and anthropogenic activities resulting in a landward migration of marine waters and increase in the risk of seawater intrusion. In some cases, infiltration of dissolved evaporite salts in the shallow aquifer and presence of connate water in the deep aquifer (DA) are the sources of groundwater salinity other than modern seawater intrusion. A detail investigation of these sources is imperative for a sustainable development and management of coastal aquifers. This work investigates the hydrogeochemical processes affecting groundwater chemistry by interpreting conventional plots, ionic delta, HFE-diagram, stable isotopes, and geochemical modelling. There are three hydrogeological units delineated in this area: upper shallow aquifer (USA) (<100 m bgl), lower shallow aquifer (LSA) (100-200 m bgl) and DA (below 200 m bgl). The hydrochemistry data reveal that the median values of total dissolved solids of the aquifers have a decreasing trend from top to bottom: USA with 7012 mg/l, LSA with 2622 mg/l and DA with 787 mg/l. Sodium is the dominant cation in all waters. The dominant anion in DA is HCO3-, but in shallow aquifers Cl-. The main water type based on the classification of Stuyfzand (1989) is the brackish to saline NaCl type in the shallow aquifers. The Br-/Cl- ratio and relatively enriched δ18O values in these NaCl waters suggest an origin derived from evaporate dissolution. Reverse cation exchange during intrusion, replacing Na+ with Ca2+, results in CaCl and CaMix water types. These waters infiltrate into the LSA. The water in the DA is mainly fresh NaHCO3+ type which originated by cation exchange from infiltrating fresh water. Ca2+ was replaced by Na+ due to the cation exchange, the water became undersaturated with respect to calcite and secondary calcite dissolution caused elevated bicarbonate concentrations. Near the present-day shoreline and at larger depths, the NaHCO3+ type water mixes with connate water, increasing salinity. The enriched δ18O values in the DA suggest an origin in a warmer climate, implying that this water has infiltrated a long time ago, much farther inland, probably during the Holocene climatic optimum. It can be expected that the salinization of the shallow aquifers will continue to increase if evaporite deposition and seasonal flooding occur. For a sustainable use of the groundwater resource in this coastal region and to prevent from even further worsening of water quality in its shallow aquifers, it is advised to develop future exploitations in the DA.

Key words: Groundwater chemistry; Stable isotope; Evaporite; Cation exchange; Calcite dissolution.

How to cite: Sarker, Md. M. R., Camp, M. V., Hossain, D., Islam, M., Bhuiyan, Md. A. Q., Ahsan, Md. A., Bennett, G., and Walraevens, K.: Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Evolution of Groundwater in Coastal Aquifers of Southwest Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9767, 2021.

EGU21-2897 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Density-dependent 3D FE modelling of a recharge drain to mitigate saltwater contamination at the Venice farmland

Maria Elisa Travaglino and Pietro Teatini

Saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers is one of the most challenging and worldwide environmental problems, severely affected by human activities and climate change. It represents a threat to the quality and sustainability of fresh groundwater resources in coastal aquifers. Saline water is the most common pollutant in fresh groundwater which can also compromise the agriculture and the economy of the affected regions. Therefore, it is necessary to develop engineering solutions to restore groundwater quality or at least to prevent further degradation of its quality.

For this purpose, the goal of the Interreg Italy – Croatia MoST (MOnitoring Sea-water intrusion in coastal aquifers and Testing pilot projects for its mitigation) project is to test possible solutions (such as underground barriers, cut-off walls, recharge wells and recharge drains) against saltwater intrusion properly supported by field characterization, laboratory experiments, monitoring of hydrological parameters, and numerical models.

This works shows the preliminary results of an ongoing modelling study carried out for a coastal farmland at Ca’ Pasqua, in the southern part of the Venice lagoon, in Italy. A three-dimensional finite-element density-dependent groundwater flow and transport model is developed to simulate the dynamics of saltwater intrusion in this lowlying area. The model is used to assess the potential effects of a recharge drain recently established at 1.5 m depth along a sandy paleochannel crossing the organic-silty area. The goal of the intervention is to mitigate the soil and groundwater salinization by spreading freshwater supplied by a nearby canal. The beneficial consequences of the recharge drain should be enhanced by the higher permeability of the paleochannel.

How to cite: Travaglino, M. E. and Teatini, P.: Density-dependent 3D FE modelling of a recharge drain to mitigate saltwater contamination at the Venice farmland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2897, 2021.

In coastal aquifers, we face the problem of salt water intrusion, which creates a complex flow field. Many of these coastal aquifers are also exposed to contaminants from various sources. In addition, in many cases there is no information about the characteristics of the aquifer. Simultaneous identification of the contaminant source and coastal aquifer characteristics can be a challenging issue. Much work has been done to identify the contaminant source, but in the complex velocity field of coastal aquifer, no one has resolved this issue yet. We want to address that in a three-dimensional artificial coastal aquifer.

To achieve this goal, we have developed a method in which the contaminant source can be identified and the characteristics of the aquifer can be estimated by using information obtained from observation wells. First, by assuming the input parameters required to simulate the contaminant transfer to the aquifer, this three-dimensional coastal aquifer that is affected by various phenomena such as seawater intrusion, tides, shore slope, rain, discharge and injection wells, is simulated and the time series of the output parameters including head, salinity and contaminant concentration are estimated. In the next step, with the aim of performing inverse modeling, random values ​​are added to the time series of outputs obtained at specific points (points belonging to observation wells) in order to rebuilt the initial conditions of the problem to achieve the desired unknowns (contaminant source and aquifer characteristics). The unknowns estimated in this study are the contaminant source location (x, y, z), the initial contaminant concentration, the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. SEAWAT model in GMS software environment has been used to solve the equations of flow and contaminant transfer and simulate a three-dimensional coastal aquifer. Next, for reverse modeling, one of the Bayesian Filters subset (ensemble Kalman filter) has been used in the Python programming language environment. Also, to reduce the code run time, the neural network model is designed and trained for the SEAWAT model.

This method is able to meet the main purpose of the study, namely estimating the value ​​of unknown input parameters, including the contaminant source location, the initial contaminant concentration, the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. In addition, that makes it possible to achieve a three-dimensional numerical model of the coastal aquifer that can be used as a benchmark to examine more accurately the impact of different phenomena simultaneously. In conclusion, we have developed an algorithm which can be used in the world's coastal aquifers to identify the contaminant source and estimate its characteristics.

 

Key words: coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, contaminants, groundwater, flow field, parameter estimation, ensemble kalman filter

How to cite: Dodangeh, A., Rajabi, M. M., and Fahs, M.: Simultaneous identification of contaminant source location, initial contaminant concentration, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity in a three-dimensional coastal aquifer via ensemble Kalman filter , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10890, 2021.

EGU21-13280 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Hydrostratigraphic setting and groundwater dynamics in high salinized low-lying farmlands at the southern margin of the Venice Lagoon

Chiara Cavallina, Alessandro Bergamasco, Jacopo Boaga, Sandra Donnici, Benedetta Surian, Luigi Tosi, Luca Zaggia, Valentina Bassan, Giuditta Gabrielli, Roberto Socin, Andrea Artuso, Lorenzo Frison, and Giuseppe Gasparetto-Stori

Hydrostratigraphic setting and groundwater dynamics in high salinized low-lying farmlands at the southern margin of the Venice Lagoon

1 Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, National Research Council, Padova, Italy

2 Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice, Italy

3 Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy

4 Regione Veneto - Soil Defence Regional Directorate, Venice, Italy

5 Land Reclamation Authority Adige Euganeo, Este-Padova, Italy

 

* Corresponding author: chiara.cavallina@igg.cnr.it

 

Key words: salt-water intrusion, groundwater dynamics, coastal plain, Venice

The coastal plain at the southern margin of the Venice lagoon is a low-lying territory, which is the result of river diversions, channeling, and hydraulic reclamation that took place over the last centuries. The mechanisms controlling the exchanges between surface water and groundwater progressively shifted from natural to artificial ones. Presently, most of this territory lays at ground elevation up to 3 m below the mean sea level and a complex network of drainage channels and pumping stations regulates the depth of the water table both to prevent flooding-waterlogging and to allow irrigation. Being at the lagoon margin and next to the sea, the aquifers of this area are heavily affected by salt-water intrusion that jeopardizes the farmlands productivity and specifically damages the crop yield. Focusing on the geology and stratigraphic architecture of the first 25-meters of the subsoil, in which the shallow aquifers are included, the sedimentary record consists in Pleistocene alluvial deposits and Holocene deposits. The latter show the typical transgressive wedge including prodelta, littoral and back barrier depositional environments. Specifically, the Holocene littoral sands contain the unconfined aquifer, which is almost continuous along the whole coastal strip.  Sedimentary bodies as paleo-channels and remnants of littoral ridges, commonly hosting unconfined aquifers, are present all over coastal plain. Pleistocene alluvial deposits contain the first locally confined aquifer.

Several past studies have revealed the complexity of freshwater-saltwater exchanges imposed by the concomitance of various forcing factors. However, a specific study on the dynamic of saline contamination of the groundwater is still missing. We present here the preliminary results of an ongoing research aimed to characterize the groundwater dynamics and disentangle mechanisms that control groundwater salinity in the shallow aquifer system of the low-lying farmlands adjacent to the southern Venice lagoon margin and the Brenta-Bacchiglione river mouth. The results of detailed analyses from various perspectives (based on sedimentary cores, continuous hydrological and hydrogeological data, geophysical surveys) are properly integrated to describe the dynamics in the shallow aquifer system. Particular attention is payed to the hydro-morpho-stratigraphic system in relation to the mechanisms driving the freshwater-saltwater exchanges. This research is developed in the frame of the Interreg Italy-Croatia project MoST (Monitoring Sea-water intrusion in coastal aquifers and Testing pilot projects for its mitigation), which addresses to improve the quality and sustainability of the human management of water resources in coastal areas.

How to cite: Cavallina, C., Bergamasco, A., Boaga, J., Donnici, S., Surian, B., Tosi, L., Zaggia, L., Bassan, V., Gabrielli, G., Socin, R., Artuso, A., Frison, L., and Gasparetto-Stori, G.: Hydrostratigraphic setting and groundwater dynamics in high salinized low-lying farmlands at the southern margin of the Venice Lagoon, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13280, 2021.

Sustainability Indices can be useful to quantify objective groundwater management strategy outcomes, particularly across regional scales and when local groundwater budget data is not readily available. Previous studies have used performance indicators to evaluate surface water systems, and their application to groundwater is expanding to address water availability concerns. Here, a groundwater sustainability index (GSI) is computed across coastal aquifer systems in Portugal and California using reliability (REL), resilience (RES), and vulnerability (VUL) performance indicators. Aquifers in these Mediterranean climate zones are susceptible to inter-annual and seasonal water storage fluctuations linked to climate forcings and drought. Piezometric levels in the selected aquifers in Portugal (Leirosa-Monte Real and Campina de Faro) and California (Napa and Santa Barbara), spanning a period from 1989 to 2019, are analyzed using a point-wise approach to provide an index-per-piezometer. The computation exposes that the resilience indicator is heavily influential in setting an aquifer system's overall sustainability classification. However, the most significant output from the GSI is a clear indication of how well (or poor) a specific aquifer can withstand drought conditions that occur in both California and Portugal throughout the 30-year span of this study. Lastly, comparing indices with different priorities (performance indicators), such as sustainability and exploitive use (including the Water Framework Directive’s River Basin Management Plan’s Water Exploitation Index (WEI+)) can help identify aquifer systems that may need an immediate policy, conservation, or mitigation interventions, and others that may be self-sustaining for a longer period of time. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.

How to cite: Malmgren, K. and Neves, M. D. C.: Computing a Groundwater Sustainability Index for coastal aquifers in Portugal and California to foster sustainable groundwater management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15728, 2021.

EGU21-13242 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.2

Reactivity of southern Quebec aquifers to meteorological and hydrological conditions

Trong Ahn Vu, Marie Larocque, Sylvain Gagné, and Marc-André Bourgault

Groundwater represents an important source of drinking water for 25% of the population in the province of Quebec (Canada) and for 80% of its rural population. The deployment of the Quebec Groundwater Observation Network (Réseau de suivi des eaux souterraines du Québec – RSESQ) since the start of the millennia provides important data on the dynamics of piezometric heads throughout southern Quebec. This study aims to use the wealth of available groundwater data available to better understand the resilience of groundwater resources to changes in meteorological and hydrological conditions. The study area is located between the St. Lawrence River and the Canada-USA border, and between the Quebec-Ontario border and Quebec City (36,000 km²). Available data consist of groundwater level time series from 81 observation wells (2000-2018; 43 in confined aquifers, 15 in semi-confined aquifers and 23 in unconfined aquifers), total flow rates from 179 hydrometric stations (1960-2017), and meteorological data from a spatially interpolated 10 km x 10 km grid (1960-2017). Statistical analyses (Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope) were used to understand if groundwater levels and flow rates are declining or rising, what is their short-, medium- and long-term memory and what are the geomorphological, land use, and climate controls of this reactivity. The results show that groundwater levels since 2007 exhibit statistically significant negative annual trends for most observation wells. Since 1960, river flow rates, total precipitation and air temperature all show significant increases. Trends calculated on five-year sliding windows confirm that groundwater levels and river flow rates are significantly correlated to the climate indices Southern Oscillation index (SOI), NINO-3 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO). Autocorrelations of flow rates and groundwater level data indicate that rivers and aquifers have a short hydrological memory rarely extending beyond the hydrological year. Cross-correlations of flow rates and groundwater levels with temperature show high correlation coefficients with a lag of up to 60 days, indicating a season-long effect of temperature changes. As expected, cross-correlation analysis of the two data sets with precipitation shows smaller correlation coefficients and a shorter reaction time (10 days). Standard deviations of daily groundwater levels are significantly higher in shallower wells and in wells where groundwater levels are closer to the ground. This confirms the presence of highly dynamic shallow aquifers reacting rapidly to surface processes.  Analyses are under way to test if spatially distributed parameters (e.g., geological setting, slope, land use) and well-related parameters (e.g.: depth, confined or unconfined) are explaining factors of trends and variations in groundwater levels and flow rates. One key observation from this study is that the RSESQ is highly valuable to understand groundwater dynamics and should be maintained on a long-term horizon. This detailed analysis has allowed to identify external influences (e.g., pumping) on some observation wells that do not reflect natural conditions and could be removed from the observation network. Recommendations also include the need for new observation wells in specific locations to improve the representativity of groundwater flow conditions in the study area.

How to cite: Vu, T. A., Larocque, M., Gagné, S., and Bourgault, M.-A.: Reactivity of southern Quebec aquifers to meteorological and hydrological conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13242, 2021.

HS5.2.3 – Water resources policy and management - systems solutions in an uncertain world

EGU21-15924 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Combining hydroeconomic modelling and bottom-up approaches for climate change adaptation. Application to the Jucar river basin (Spain).

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Patricia Marcos-Garcia, Antonio Lopez-Nicolas, Hector Macian-Sorribes, and Adria Rubio-Martin

In many regions of the world, such as in the Southern Mediterranean area, water management has been challenging for long; however, climate change could act as an amplification factor and trigger an unprecedented situation. Several approaches have been proposed for the design of adaptation strategies for water resources systems. Although top-down approaches have been traditionally preferred, several authors have pointed out their relative lack of success when it comes to decision making. On the other hand, participative bottom-up approaches have the advantage of involving the stakeholders from the early stages of the strategy development, which could be crucial for the strategy's success. In order to overcome the shortcomings of both approaches and take advantage of their strengths, we propose a mixed bottom-up/top-down approach to define adaptation strategies at basin scale.

First, climate change impact on local water availability (future local inflows) is characterized using a top-down approach. Next, local knowledge is used through a participatory process in a bottom-up approach to foresight future scenarios of evolution of the agricultural sector and define locally relevant adaptation strategies. Each measure is characterized in terms of cost and efficiency. Water demands are characterized using economic demand curves. Finally, we used a hydroeconomic model to integrate the information obtained through top-down and bottom-up approaches to evaluate the net benefit of the different adaptation strategies, and select a socially acceptable and economically efficient program of measures for the climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

This methodology has been applied to the Jucar basin, a highly regulated basin with a fragile equilibrium between available water resources and demands. Climate change is expected to accentuate the current problems. The results show the importance of considering the spatial variability of climate change impacts in the basin. Temperature increase and precipitation decrease would be higher in the basin headwaters than in the coastal area, which conditions future inflows. In relation to adaptation measures, the stakeholders preferred the change from gravity to drip irrigation, the use of non-conventional water resources (wastewater reuse and desalination) and measures related to water governance. Finally, the results obtained from the hydroeconomic model show that, for most of the considered climate scenarios, the selected measures allow a significant reduction of the economic losses in the system.

Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain and with EU FEDER funds.

How to cite: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Marcos-Garcia, P., Lopez-Nicolas, A., Macian-Sorribes, H., and Rubio-Martin, A.: Combining hydroeconomic modelling and bottom-up approaches for climate change adaptation. Application to the Jucar river basin (Spain)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15924, 2021.

EGU21-7883 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Co-evolutionary macro-economy and river system modeling framework

Mohammed Basheer, Victor Nechifor, Alvaro Calzadilla, and Julien Harou

This study introduces a co-evolutionary macro-economy and river system simulation framework that integrates a monthly river system simulation model with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. At each annual time step, the two models perform iterative bidirectional communication. The CGE model quantifies changes to annual water and electricity demands and non-hydro electricity generation capacity, and the river system model seeks to meet the water and electricity demands subject to the spatial and temporal availability of river flow, infrastructure capacities (i.e., reservoir storage, non-hydro, and hydro capacities), and infrastructure operating rules. The co-evolutionary modeling framework is based on open-source modeling tools. This multi-sector simulation framework is demonstrated on the Eastern Nile River System to examine the benefits of a flexible collaborative management approach for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), whereby the GERD helps meet water demands in Egypt during multi-year droughts and increases water storage during periods of high flows. The performance of the flexible collaborative approach is compared to a recent GERD operation proposal negotiated by Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt in Washington D.C. but has not been accepted by Ethiopia. The two GERD operating approaches are examined across multiple 30-year river flow sequences to test the river system resilience to inter-annual flow variability.

How to cite: Basheer, M., Nechifor, V., Calzadilla, A., and Harou, J.: Co-evolutionary macro-economy and river system modeling framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7883, 2021.

EGU21-385 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Using a socio-hydrology stance to address the paradox between global decarbonisation, lithium fever, and sustainability in the Atacama Salt Deposit

Marcos Canales, Juan Castilla-Rho, Sebastian Vicuña, James Ball, and Tatiana Filatova

Climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by replacing petroleum-driven vehicles with electric vehicles powered by rechargeable lithium batteries. By 2025, 45% of the world’s Lithium will be sourced from water-intensive mining operations adjacent to fragile eco-hydrological systems in the Atacama Desert, the world’s driest desert. In the remote Atacama salt flat basin, home to one of the world’s richest deposits of high-grade lithium, brines are being mined from aquifers, with potential impacts on the long-term environmental, ecological, economic, and social viability of the system. Stakeholders (scientists, communities, and decision-makers) are currently entrenched in adversarial relationships and top-down policy-making and implementation.

A socio-hydrology stance considering telecoupled systems of people and water is essential to address the paradox between the quest for global decarbonisation and unsustainable use of water resources in the Atacama region. The inclusion of social drivers (beliefs, biases, values, and heuristics), however, adds complexity to the analysis. To address this complexity, novel methodologies such as participatory modeling (PM) and agent-based modeling (ABM) can be implemented. The former can enrich the system with specialist and local knowledge, increase the perceived utility of models, their credibility through transparent communication of the limitations and uncertainties, and the adoption and acceptance of the model results, which ultimately guide public policy. The latter seeks to represent explicitly the complexity and heterogeneity in these telecoupled systems.

The socio-hydrological problem at the Atacama salt flat is conceptualized using the Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping methodology through participatory workshops, involving scientists, regulators, and government officials. An ABM is then coupled to an integrated and regional groundwater-surface water model to better understand the impacts of management scenarios and social interactions, and their feedbacks on the eco-hydrological system. Ultimately, the aim of this research is to take a socio-hydrology stance to analyze a wicked problem with social, environmental, and economic implications at the local and global scales, and in doing so, expand fundamental knowledge of socio-hydrology.

How to cite: Canales, M., Castilla-Rho, J., Vicuña, S., Ball, J., and Filatova, T.: Using a socio-hydrology stance to address the paradox between global decarbonisation, lithium fever, and sustainability in the Atacama Salt Deposit, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-385, 2021.

EGU21-1691 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Bayesian Belief Networks for the metamodeling of simulation-optimization model to identify optimum water allocation scenario, Application in Miyandoab plain, Urmia Lake basin, Iran

Amirhossein Dehghanipour, Gerrit Schoups, Hossein Babazadeh, Majid Ehtiat, and Bagher Zahabiyoun

In this study, decision-making models in uncertain conditions are developed to identify optimal strategies for reducing competition between agricultural and environmental water demand. The decision-making models are applied to the irrigated Miyandoab Plain, located upstream of endorheic Lake Urmia in Northwestern Iran. Decision-making models are conceptualized based on static and dynamic Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The static BBN evaluates the effects of management strategies and drought conditions on environmental flow and agricultural profit at the annual scale, while the dynamic BBN accounts for monthly dynamics of water demand and conjunctive use. The reliability and performance of BBNs depend on the quantity and quality of data used to train the BBN and create conditional probability tables (CPTs). In this study, simulated outputs from a multi-period simulation-optimization model (Dehganipour et al., 2020) are used to populate the CPTs in each BBN and reduce the BBN training error. Cross-validation tests and sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the resulting BBNs. Sensitivity analysis shows that drought conditions have the most significant impact on environmental flow compared to other variables. Cross-validation tests show that the BBNs are able to reproduce outputs of the complex simulation-optimization model used for training, and therefore provide a computationally fast alternative for decision-making under uncertainty.

Reference: Dehghanipour, A. H., Schoups, G., Zahabiyoun, B., & Babazadeh, H. (2020). Meeting agricultural and environmental water demand in endorheic irrigated river basins: A simulation-optimization approach applied to the Urmia Lake basin in Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 241, 106353.

How to cite: Dehghanipour, A., Schoups, G., Babazadeh, H., Ehtiat, M., and Zahabiyoun, B.: Bayesian Belief Networks for the metamodeling of simulation-optimization model to identify optimum water allocation scenario, Application in Miyandoab plain, Urmia Lake basin, Iran, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1691, 2021.

EGU21-8368 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

Laura Müller and Petra Döll

Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRhön aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rhön in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km² and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5°x0.5° (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO2 on evapotranspiration and thus runoff.   

The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.

To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.

How to cite: Müller, L. and Döll, P.: Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8368, 2021.

EGU21-10528 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Revisiting the storage-reliability-yield concept in hydroelectricity

Andreas Efstratiadis, Ioannis Tsoukalas, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

The storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relationship is a well-established tool for preliminary design of reservoirs fulfilling consumptive water uses, yet rarely employed within hydropower planning studies. Here, we discuss the theoretical basis for representing the trade-offs between reservoir size and expected revenues from hydropower production, under uncertain inflows, by taking advantage of the stochastic simulation-optimization approach. We also demonstrate that under some assumptions, the complex and site-specific problem, mainly induced by the nonlinearity of storage-head-energy conversion, can be significantly simplified and generalized as well. The methodology is tested across varying runoff regimes and under a wide range of potential reservoir geometries, expressed in terms of a generic shape parameter of the head-storage relationship. Based on the outcomes of these analyses we derive empirical expressions that link reliable energy with summary inflow statistics, reservoir capacity and geometry.

How to cite: Efstratiadis, A., Tsoukalas, I., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Revisiting the storage-reliability-yield concept in hydroelectricity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10528, 2021.

EGU21-13465 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

OpenHiGis: A national geographic database for inland waters of Greece based on the INSPIRE Directive Hydrology Theme

Ino Papageorgaki, Antonis Koukouvinos, and Nikos Mamassis

The Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net) is an information infrastructure for the collection, management and dissemination of hydrologic information related to inland waters in Greece. The OpenHi.net is under development in the context of HIMIOFoTS, a national infrastructure integrating both marine and inland waters. OpenHi.net is mainly oriented to collect and manage river and lake stage data. Geographic data are essential to link stage data with the upstream basin’s hydrologic characteristics. The OpenHiGis is the GIS component of the OpenHi.net platform. The geographic database design and implementation are based on the Hydrography Theme specified by the INSPIRE Directive. The main goal is to collect, query, analyze, and offer web services relevant to hydrologic - geographic information for hydrographic network, lakes and reservoirs, river basins, drainage basins and station basins at a national level. In this sense, data stored for (a) hydrographic network (geometry, length, segment’s slope, geographical name and stream order), (b) lakes and reservoirs (geometry, area, elevation and geographical name) , and (c) basins (geometry, area, elevation, slope, basin order, main watercourse length and slope, runoff Curve Number.

The European Digital Elevation Model (Copernicus, EU-DEM version 1.1) with spatial resolution of 25 m, is selected (after examining a few well-known elevation models) for extracting hypsometric information, which is basic for river basin’s response. Other main data sources found and used are the: (a) hydrographic network, lakes and reservoirs from the implementation of EU 2000/60/EC Directive, (b) hydrographic network from EU 2007/60/EC Directive and (c) OpenStreetMap publically available hydrographic network and river networks from various scanned maps at scales approximately 1:50 k.

The ArcGIS Model Builder environment is used as the main spatial analysis tool. Several models are created to run the geographic processes and perform calculations (create INSPIRE compliant geodatabase, data import from various sources, watercourse extraction from DEM and hydrographic network definition, river basins delineation and geomorphologic attributes calculation, watercourse naming, topology creation and validation). The extraction of a primary (before editing) watercourse line is achieved by using the EU-DEM, applying  an upslope contribution area threshold equal to 10 km2, which is proposed by the EU 2000/60/EC Directive. Spatial relationships between features are defined using topological rules. All the modeling procedures and the output datasets are considered to be at a scale 1:50 k.

The QGIS software is used to perform the final editing by using OSM’s, ESRI’s, Google’s and Bing’s base-maps. Furthermore, QGIS is used to make a connection to the ArcGIS geodatabase and transfer the data to PostGIS (Postgres). Finally, the MapServer software is used for publishing the data to the web. Two services, the Web Map Service (WMS) and the Web Feature Service (WFS), are provided to the user to access, query or download the geographic data through the OpenHi.net platform.

How to cite: Papageorgaki, I., Koukouvinos, A., and Mamassis, N.: OpenHiGis: A national geographic database for inland waters of Greece based on the INSPIRE Directive Hydrology Theme, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13465, 2021.

EGU21-13769 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Testing the environmental flow allocation requirements in Colombia through the HeCCA 1.0 tool

Maria Camila Fernandez Berbeo, Nicolas Cortes Torres, Karen Ortega Tenjo, Martin Perez Pedraza, Laura Laverde Mesa, Carlos Cubillos Peña, and Sergio Salazar Galan

In Colombia around 70% of the electricity generation is from hydropower. It is documented that their infrastructure and operation rules affect the natural regime of flows and sediments with several impacts on aquatic ecosystem functioning mainly on the Magdalena-Cauca river basin, where most of the projects are located. Also, social conflicts have been documented downstream hydropower projects due to water use incompatibilities. Considering that Colombia has a great potential to expand hydropower generation as well as there is a growing demand from other water users, it is necessary to attend the ecological requirements of aquatic ecosystems and to improve the water management in order to avoid irreversible environmental impacts and governance problems.

In 2018, the Colombian Ministry of Environmental and Sustainable Development (MADS) developed a methodology to consider environmental flows both in the water management decisions and in the environmental impact assessment of new projects with impacts on hydrologic regimen. The opportunity to carry out a validation of its premises aims to research its effectiveness in terms of reduction in hydrologic alterations when environmental flow allocation is decided. 

That is why we have developed a computer model (HeCCA 1.0) which contains the most important methods contemplated in the methodology proposed by MADS. Thus, using river discharge data of 15 different river systems located throughout the entire country, the methodology mentioned has been tested in basins with low anthropic alteration of the hydrological regime. In this test, we cover a range of drainage areas, from 180 to 73000 km2, located between 25 and 2993 meters above sea level, and different climatic and geomorphological characteristics. 

The following results have been obtained using the HeCCA tool. For the 15 river systems, the statistical quartiles Q1, Q2 and Q3 for the percentage of use are monthly correspond to 24%, 47% and 100% respectively. The systems belong to different seasonal behaviors depending on the geographical location; nine of them count on a monomodal regimen, which average percentage of use is 61%±8, and the highest percentages of use (located in the Pacific basin) are not found during the wettest months, (77%±29); four of the watersheds are in the Orinoco basin, providing use of water between 61% and 67%. Six systems have bimodal regimen, whose average percentage of use is 49%±32, the two lowest percentages of use (14% and 19%) are found in the biggest bimodal watersheds, with sizes over 1700km2, which also have the highest average yields. The highest percentage of use found during the wettest months of the year is 99%, corresponding to the system located at one of the lowest points of the Caribbean basin.  

Thus, the percentage of available water depends on the watershed size, if it is related to the runoff seasonality along the year in the different catchment areas of the country. This approach provides stakeholders a clear overview of the water availability and management through a useful tool which improves the integral water management for hydrological systems.

How to cite: Fernandez Berbeo, M. C., Cortes Torres, N., Ortega Tenjo, K., Perez Pedraza, M., Laverde Mesa, L., Cubillos Peña, C., and Salazar Galan, S.: Testing the environmental flow allocation requirements in Colombia through the HeCCA 1.0 tool, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13769, 2021.

EGU21-7942 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

The influence of floating spheres on evaporation suppression under different climatic conditions

Maram M. Shalaby, Ibrahim N. Nassar, and Ahmed M. Abdallah

Global warming and population growth increase the need for better management of freshwater resources, in particular in arid and semi-arid regions. Due to increased rainfall variability,  reservoirs became a vital management tool that stores the water during rainfall, thus decrease flood risks and supply water during drought periods. However, large amounts of water are lost by evaporation, which markedly affects reservoirs’ function of ensuring water availability. In Egypt, about 20.0% of the country's Nile share (12.1 to 15.4 billion m3) are lost annually by evaporation from Lake Nasser. The floating covers, i.e. spheres, shade the water surface and act as a physical barrier that decreases energy flux into the water, thus decrease evaporation. Studies that compare the evaporation suppression efficiency of the floating covers, over different climatic conditions, while considering its impact on the water ecology are limited.

A field experiment in an outdoor setting (class A-pan) was conducted for nine months (March to November) in two locations that vary in their climatic conditions, i.e. Aswan and Damanhur, representing northern and southern Egypt, respectively. The water surface was covered by white, black, or multicolor spheres, in addition to the control. Daily evaporation rate (ER), water temperature (WT), evaporation suppression efficiency (ESE), were determined. Moreover, the microalgae growth was measured as an indicator of water ecology.  

Obtained results revealed massive evaporation losses from the uncovered water surface (control) in Aswan location, in which the nine-month average was 2.25 times higher than in Damanhour location. The floating spheres reduced ER in both locations, in particular the white spheres. The ESE in Aswan was less than in Damanhour location. The ESE in Damanhour was 63.38, 58.13, and 54.8%, while in Aswan was 48., 42.5, and 41.6% for white, multicolor and black spheres, respectively. Floating spheres decreased WT in the morning and mid-day, while in the evening the control treatment was the coldest, indicating partial isolation of covered water surface. Irrespective of the spheres’ color, the spheres had no detrimental effect on microalgae growth, indicating enough light penetration and gas exchange through the gaps between spheres.

In conclusion, the floating spheres is an effective mean for evaporation suppression and its efficiency is dependent on the climate and spheres’ color. The ESE of spheres is lower in environments with lower relative humidity. The white spheres are recommended for evaporation suppression without negative impacts on microalgae growth which could be a viable indicator for the ecology of the water ecosystem. Further studies on larger water reservoirs are needed while considering several aquatic organisms.

How to cite: M. Shalaby, M., N. Nassar, I., and M. Abdallah, A.: The influence of floating spheres on evaporation suppression under different climatic conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7942, 2021.

EGU21-1785 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Evaluation of methods for calculating potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios

Maria-Carmen Vicente-Torres and Miguel Angel Perez Martin

Despite uncertainties involved by future scenarios, the acknowledgement of climate change problem (WMO 2019/1248 reinforces the past five years as the warmest in industrial records, part of the warmest decade on record 2010-2019, and the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation actions have only grown in recent years. In the European Territory (EEA 1/2017), a significant decrease in summer soil moisture content in the Mediterranean region, while increases in north-eastern countries are projected for the coming decades. The current temperature increase derived from the emission of gases to the atmosphere, in the range of 0.1-0.3 ºC per decade by the IPCC experts Special Report 2018, obliges a deep review of the agricultural productivity factors, according to the FAO-56 /2006.

Soil moisture content is thus approached as a dynamic variable, with changes in temperature as well as precipitation constantly affecting evapotranspiration and infiltration rates. In this paper, five computing methods for crop water evapotranspiration (Penman-Monteith proposed by FAO-56, Thornwaite, and three temperature-based methods: Hargreaves 1975, Hargreaves-Samani 1985, Samani 2000) are not only scientifically compared but also applied to a Spanish Study Case at Valencian Community in the Mediterranean Basin. Results are affected by local single crops coefficient (also proposed by FAO-56) for citrus trees in upper Palancia River catchment, representative of intensive agriculture in the area, and calculated under four future scenarios (from +1ºC to 4ºC of unitary temperature increase).

Analysed results by percentual comparison with Penman-Monteith estimation, demonstrate a similar application range (from -1% of variation in +1ºC scenario to -4% of variation in 4ºC scenario) for scarcer data-based methods (Hargreaves 1975, Hargreaves-Samani 1985 and Samani 2000) except Thornthwaite. Allowing to conclude that Thornthwaite projections in the Mediterranean Climate overestimate up to 3% (+1ºC scenario), 6% (+2ºC scenario), 11% (+3ºC scenario) and 16% (+4ºC scenario) the monthly values of crop evapotranspiration.

How to cite: Vicente-Torres, M.-C. and Perez Martin, M. A.: Evaluation of methods for calculating potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1785, 2021.

The EU-funded program European Water Initiative Plus for Eastern Partnership Countries (EUWI+), which is the biggest commitment of the EU to the water sector in the EaP countries, helps Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine to bring their legislation closer to EU policy in the field of water management, with a main focus on the management of transboundary river basins. It supports the development and implementation of pilot river basin management plans, building on the improved policy framework and ensuring a strong participation of local stakeholders.

In 2019, with the support of EUWI+, groundwater experts from Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus identified transboundary groundwater bodies (GWBs) in the Dnipro River Basin of Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus. In total eight (3 unconfined and 5 confined) transboundary GWBs in Ukraine were identified as transboundary linked with six GWBs in Belarus. As some of these GWBs are significantly large, follow-up studies in 2020 aimed at identifying those sub parts of the GWBs which are subject to transboundary groundwater interaction. Finally, on both sides of the border, transboundary corridors at a distance of 50 km from the state border were identified as sub-zones of the existing large GWBs. This distance was chosen to capture the recharge areas of the zone of active water exchange (watersheds) and the areas of groundwater discharge (river valleys).

The investigated transboundary territory is located in Polissia, a zone of excessive moisture, where the GWBs are mainly recharged by precipitation - the unconfined GWBs all over the whole territory, the confined GWBs at places where shallow water-bearing rocks occur. In the transboundary zone, the regional recharge area is located in the Ukrainian Shield; most of the aquifers are recharged on its slopes. The direction of groundwater flow is from the Ukrainian Shield towards the artesian basins in Belarus. 

The Ukrainian part of the territory, where the confined aquifers are recharged, is characterised by minor anthropogenic pressures - very low population density and no large industrial enterprises. Therefore, impacts from the Ukrainian side on the GWBs in Belarus are limited. In contrast, the border area in the Republic of Belarus is one of its most developed industrial regions.

The analysis showed that the groundwater monitoring network in the Ukrainian 50-km transboundary zone has practically been destroyed due to long-term underfunding and it requires substantial restoration. In Belarus, the monitoring network is quite representative and requires some improvements; in some GWBs  the monitoring network is unevenly distributed and in some GWBs, the number of monitoring wells is insufficient

Within this study a comprehensive set of analytical material on geological-hydrogeological, hydrogeochemical, hydrodynamic aspects of the study area was collected, a number of open issues were identified, which will substantially contribute to the development and harmonization of not only the groundwater monitoring system of the transboundary territory of the Pripyat and Dnieper river basins in Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus, but also the groundwater monitoring system of the countries as a whole.

How to cite: Lyuta, N., Sanina, I., Biarozka, O., Vasniova, O., Scheidleder, A., and Humer, F.: Transboundary subparts of groundwater bodies (GWB) and transboundary monitoring network of the Republic of Belarus and the Ukraine - developed under the European Water Initiative Plus for Eastern Partnership Countries (EUWI+), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4599, 2021.

EGU21-739 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3 | Highlight

A policy tree optimization approach to dynamic adaptation under climate uncertainty

Jonathan Herman and Jonathan Cohen

Water resources systems face a wide range of uncertainty in future hydroclimatic and socio-economic conditions, justifying an adaptive planning approach. Recent advances in dynamic adaptation have designed policies in which infrastructure and management actions are triggered by thresholds of indicator variables monitored over time. Typically, one or more of these components are prespecified, constraining the flexibility of policy design and evaluation. The opportunity exists for methods to identify policies combining the most relevant indicators, actions, and thresholds for dynamic adaptation to climate change. Here we present a generalized framework based on multi-objective policy tree optimization, a heuristic policy search method in which adaptation policies are represented as binary trees. We demonstrate this approach using an illustrative water resources planning problem in California where infrastructure expansion, reservoir operations, conservation rules, and conjunctive use are adapted over time to balance flood risk, water supply, and environmental objectives. To capture the uncertainty in nonstationary forcing, indicator variables include long-term hydroclimatic statistics from downscaled GCM projections along with uncertain land use and economic conditions. Policy robustness is determined by validation against a held-out scenario ensemble. A key focus of the results is comparing the indicators and actions selected by robust versus non-robust policies to identify cases where policies adapt to a signal rather than noise. This framework is supported by open source software and is generalizable across water resources systems challenged with adaptive planning under climate uncertainty.

How to cite: Herman, J. and Cohen, J.: A policy tree optimization approach to dynamic adaptation under climate uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-739, 2021.

EGU21-10225 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Disentangling uncertainties in risk-based planning of water resources in the UK

Francesca Pianosi, Andres Penuela-Fernandez, and Christopher Hutton

Proper consideration of uncertainty has become a cornerstone of model-informed planning of water resource systems. In the UK Government’s 2020 Water Resources Planning Guidelines, the word “uncertainty” appears 48 times in 82 pages. This emphasis on uncertainty aligns with the increasing adoption by UK water companies of a “risk-based” approach to their long-term decision-making, in order to handle uncertainties in supply-demand estimation, climate change, population growth, etc. The term “risk-based” covers a range of methods - such as “info-gap”, “robust decision-making” or “system sensitivity analysis” - that come under different names but largely share a common rationale, essentially based on the use of Monte Carlo simulation. This shift in thinking from previous (deterministic) “worst-case” approach to a “risk-based” one is important and has the potential to significantly improve water resources planning practice. However its implementation is diminished by a certain lack of clarity about the terminology in use and about the concrete differences (and similarities) among methods. On top of these difficulties, in the next planning-cycle (2021-2026) two further step changes are introduced: (1) water companies are requested to move from a cost-efficiency approach focused on achieving the supply-demand balance, towards a fully multi-criteria approach that more explicitly encompasses other objectives including environmental sustainability; (2) as a further way to handle long-term uncertainties, they are required to embrace an “adaptive planning” approach. These changes will introduce two new sets of uncertainties around the robust quantification of criteria, particularly environmental ones, and around the attribution of weights to different criteria. This urgently calls for establishing structured approaches to quantify not only the uncertainty in model outputs, but also the sensitivity of those outputs to different forms of uncertainty in the modelling chain that mostly control the variability of the final outcome – the “best value” plan. Without this understanding of critical uncertainties, the risk is that huge efforts are invested on characterising and/or reducing uncertainties that later turn out to have little impact on the final outcome; or that water managers fall back to using oversimplified representation of those uncertainties as a way to escape the huge modelling burden. In this work, we aim at starting to establish a common rationale to “risk-based” methods within the context of a fully multi-criteria approach. We use a proof-of-concept example of a reservoir system in the South-West of England to demonstrate the use of global (i.e. Monte Carlo based) sensitivity analysis to simultaneously quantify output uncertainty and sensitivity, and identify robust decisions. We also discuss the potential of this approach to inform the construction of a “decision tree” for adaptive planning.

How to cite: Pianosi, F., Penuela-Fernandez, A., and Hutton, C.: Disentangling uncertainties in risk-based planning of water resources in the UK, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10225, 2021.

EGU21-9445 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Equitable adaptation planning under deep uncertainty for the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta

Bramka Arga Jafino and Jan Kwakkel

The importance of considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being acknowledged. A preferred adaptation strategy is one that not only yields robust outcomes under multiple futures, but also has a fair distribution of benefits and harms across affected actors. In this study we propose two complementary approaches for assessing the equity of impacts of adaptation strategies. First, in the explorative approach, we explore what different multi-actor inequality patterns might emerge under different policy and uncertainty scenarios. Put differently, we identify who benefits and who loses under which kind of circumstances. Second, in the normative approach, we attempt to rank alternative strategies based on their performance across uncertain futures. Identifying which strategy is more preferable requires us to define what kind of distribution is considered to be ‘good’. We thus employ six alternative distributive moral principles that each has its own maxim in justifying the moral righteousness of a distribution: utilitarianism, prioritarianism, sufficientarianism, envy measures, weighted utilitarianism, and the Rawlsian difference principle.

We apply both approaches to a case study on agricultural adaptation planning in An Giang and Dong Thap, two provinces in the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta. We develop an integrated assessment metamodel to assess the equity implications of six alternative adaptation strategies, including dikes (de)construction policies, fertilizer subsidy, and seeds upgrading. We evaluate the distributional impacts of the alternative strategies to 23 districts in the two provinces under a large number of strategic scenarios, i.e., combinations of policy scenarios and uncertain futures. From the explorative approach, we discover six distinctive inequality patterns and identify the strategic scenarios that give rise to each inequality pattern. We find a trade-off between districts located along the Mekong river and those located further away. In some strategic scenarios the former group of districts are substantially better-off than the latter, and vice versa.

From the normative approach, we find a mixed result of preferred strategies depending on what moral principle is being adopted. The dikes deconstruction policy in Dong Thap, which performs best from a utilitarian point of view, ranks fifth from a prioritarian perspective. Upgrading seed is the most preferred strategy from the prioritarian view, but it performs the worst when looked at from a sufficientarian point of view. We further find that the results from each principle are strongly affected by uncertainties. For example, the fertilizer subsidy policy ranks last in approximately 70% of the uncertain futures according to the sufficientarian principle, but it becomes the most preferable in the other 20% of the uncertain futures. Our findings further emphasize the simultaneous consideration of both uncertainties and alternative distributive principles in adaptation planning. By using multiple moral principles, we expand the information base upon which adaptation decisions are made, and thus minimizing potential surprises and unintended consequences from our choice.

How to cite: Jafino, B. A. and Kwakkel, J.: Equitable adaptation planning under deep uncertainty for the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9445, 2021.

EGU21-6835 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Robust technology and policy pathways to urban water security

Marta Zaniolo, Sarah Fletcher, and Meagan Mauter

Increasingly frequent and severe droughts are jeopardizing urban water security in water stressed regions, but cities also struggle to justify the costs and energy consumption of some drought-resilient technologies. Previous literature in urban water modeling developed strategies to expand and diversify urban water supply portfolios to enhance water resilience cost effectively.  This literature has also demonstrated that high-resolution, household-level modeling is necessary to represent the real energy footprint of different water technologies and the integration of centralized and decentralized water solutions. This urban-focused modeling scale, however, does not support the characterization of water availability at extra-urban sources resulting from watershed-wide hydrological processes. Conversely, watershed-scale water resources planning characterizes water variability and stress, supports climate change analysis, but overlooks key distributional and technological aspects. 

This project develops a watershed-to-end-user decision support tool for cost-effective, adaptive water augmentation pathways to ensure robustness in many climate futures. The novelty of our work lies in a true multiscale modeling framework that captures the complex system dynamics that link climate impacts to household water security. A robust, multi-objective, evolutionary-based optimization framework (i.e., EMODPS) is used to derive the technology portfolio, deployment location, and construction timing that defines a city’s Pareto frontier of water resilience and cost. This work informs urban water resource planners, as well as guides technology innovation by explicitly valuing technology attributes that enable resilience to droughts of varying duration, severity, and intensity. We apply this model to the City of Santa Barbara, California, given the time relevance to city planning efforts, the diversified water supply mix, and the relative isolation of the community, enclosed between the ocean and a mountain range.

How to cite: Zaniolo, M., Fletcher, S., and Mauter, M.: Robust technology and policy pathways to urban water security, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6835, 2021.

EGU21-10676 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Many-objective risk assessment framework for guiding operational decisions on multiple reservoirs

Quan Dau, David Dorchies, and Jean-Claude Bader

Effective optimisation methods have emerged over the last few decades to deal with the management of multiple reservoirs serving multiple and often conflicting objectives. Despite the abundant literature on the subject, the practical use of these techniques in the field remains very limited because they are perceived as “black boxes” whose behaviour is difficult to understand for users and decision-makers (Pianosi et al. 2020).

Optimisation using one or more aggregated objectives can create stakeholder reluctance when they do not recognize their values and objectives in the optimization formulation, while also raising ethical concerns related to the inclusion of undesirable and/or hidden trade-offs. In contrast, an approach considering many non-aggregated objectives has the potential to bring out alternative courses of action that better reflect the diverging perspectives of stakeholders, and align better with ethical concerns (Kasprzyk et al. 2016).

To deal with this problem, we here follow the Wierzbicki's (1979) "reference objective" concept considering each single objective as a utopia point optimised separately by deterministic dynamic programming. The optimisation, taking into account given hydroclimatic conditions and a chosen set of constraints, provides yearly probabilistic upper or lower rule curves reflecting the risk of failing to achieve each of the objectives in the future (Bader 1992). In order to use these data, we have developed a graphical user interface based on an R Shiny application showing the risk probability of future failure of each objective depending on the calendar day and the current or forecasted storage state of each reservoir.

This framework is applied on the Seine catchment area in Paris, France, which includes a system of 4 large reservoirs to protect against floods and water shortages for multiple flow thresholds and multiple locations downstream from the reservoirs. Historical datasets as well as climate change projections are used to take into account the non-stationarity nature of hydroclimatic conditions. Among other applications, this example shows the utility of such a tool in order to justify the stakeholders decisions to discard minor objectives when they undermine the chances of success of major objectives in critical situations.

 

References

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Bader, J.-C., 1992. Consignes de gestion du barrage à vocation multiple de Manantali: détermination des cotes limites à respecter dans la retenue [Multiple use management of Manantali Dam: determination of limiting storage levels]. Hydrologie Continentale 7, 3–12.

Kasprzyk, J.R., Reed, P.M., Hadka, D.M., 2016. Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 142, 04015053. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000572

Pianosi, F., Dobson, B., Wagener, T., 2020. Use of Reservoir Operation Optimization Methods in Practice: Insights from a Survey of Water Resource Managers. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 146, 02520005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001301

Wierzbicki, A.P., 1979. The Use of Reference Objectives in Multiobjective Optimization - Theoretical Implications and Practical Experience (No. WP-79-66). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

How to cite: Dau, Q., Dorchies, D., and Bader, J.-C.: Many-objective risk assessment framework for guiding operational decisions on multiple reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10676, 2021.

EGU21-15121 | vPICO presentations | HS5.2.3

Water Decision Support System for Urban Water Security under Uncertain Future: A Case Study of Upper Yamuna River Basin, India

Dinesh Kumar, Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya, and Ashvani Gosain

Ensuring water security considering the near- and far-future climatic and socio-economic uncertainties, is one of the grand global challenges. In developing countries, supply-side management like the construction of new dams, rehabilitation and augmentation of the existing water resources and supply infrastructure are the widely adopted solutions. Often, the importance of the requirement of water for environmental well-being is neglected. Here, we develop a modelling framework using Water Evaluation and Planning and Qual2K models, considering ‘environment’ also as a stakeholder. This water decision support system is demonstrated on the Upper Yamuna River Basin, a complex and polluted river system in India. Further, to raise risk awareness among stakeholders about the extreme plausible future conditions, the storyline-based approach is adopted to develop future scenarios. The developed framework is deployed to explore the National Capital Territory of Delhi's urban water security for different plausible future scenarios. Based on this, reliability of different policy management options and strategies are explored. The simulated results show that the localized (urban level) management strategies are more reliable than the basin level management strategies, especially under a prolonged plausible warmer climate and better standard of living based socio-economic development conditions. The model building, scenario development, and analysis demonstrate the importance of incorporating the local system knowledge to build an effective decision support system for physically and legally complex river basins.

How to cite: Kumar, D., Dhanya, C. T., and Gosain, A.: Water Decision Support System for Urban Water Security under Uncertain Future: A Case Study of Upper Yamuna River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15121, 2021.

HS5.3.1 – Water resources policy and management - managing trade-offs at the nexus between water, food, energy and the environment

EGU21-7604 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Intergenerational justice and trade-off analysis in water resources management of the Nile

Seleshi Yalew, Jan Kwakkel, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, and Neelke Doorn

Water management involves optimizing the allocation of ‘enough’ water, a limited resource, to meet demands from competing actors and/or sectors such as agriculture, energy, ecosystems, and water supply. Although such demands are often associated only with current or existing generations, it’s understandable that future generations will have their own demands for these  resources. There is, therefore, a moral dilemma and a question of justice regarding how much current generations must account for and be concerned with the generations to come with respect to managing resources in general and water resources in particular. Questions of intergenerational justice, i.e., the extent to which we should be concerned about future generations, are becoming increasingly common particularly due to a changing climate and growing population both of which require longer term planning and resources optimization. However, only limited suggestions are available in the literature for the practical implementation of intergenerational justice theories in the water resources literature to address such questions.

Operationalization of justice principles in general, and intergenerational justice principles in particular is hard because different conceptualizations may exist concerning the same moral value. As a result, it’s often difficult to arrive at common understanding, schemes, and/or commitment levels for water resources management, particularly during negotiations in transboundary rivers involving multiple states, socio-political landscapes, and different possible ethical underpinnings.

In this study, we present a novel scheme for operationalizing intergenerational justice which involves analysis and visualization of a range of commitment levels for future generations and trade-off analysis to existing generations. We implemented ranges of discount on current and potential utilization of water resources for various services. These discounts are then applied on water related services, which include water needs for hydropower generation, food production, and for various other human and ecological needs in water basins. By doing so, we present a mechanism for stakeholders in water resources management where they can assign different weights, depending on possibly different ethical underpinnings, to conserving water resources for future generation and evaluate the potential trade-off of such alternatives. We think that this is particularly important to tame negotiations in transboundary water resources management where multiple states, socio-political landscapes, and different ethical underpinnings often lead to escalated disputes. Here, we present our operationalization scheme for the Nile in light of existing disputes in this transboundary water basin. Although our scheme may not escape the challenge of, and hence did not attempt to,  quantitative standardized values across the various stakeholders involved, it provides the opportunity for all stakeholders to put their own value for future generations in water resources management and weigh the implications of their considerations in terms of intergenerational trade-offs. We think this study adds value to the current literature on ethically-informed optimization in water resources management.

How to cite: Yalew, S., Kwakkel, J., Zatarain Salazar, J., and Doorn, N.: Intergenerational justice and trade-off analysis in water resources management of the Nile, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7604, 2021.

EGU21-7731 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Future opportunities and risks in managing the Eastern Nile water-energy-food-environment nexus

Mikiyas Etichia, Jose Gutierrez, Mohammed Basheer, Eduardo Martinez, Mathaios Panteli, and Julien Harou

The interlinkages between the water, energy, food, and environment systems of the Eastern Nile Basin are becoming stronger due to an increase in the demand for water, energy, and food and two of the largest multi-year storage dams in the world (i.e., High Aswan Dam and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)). Significant benefits can be attained if these resource systems are managed in an integrated manner, which would result in improved efficiencies and reduced trade-offs in resource use, and better and more sustainable solutions to future water-energy-food-environment nexus problems. The ongoing construction of the GERD, the largest hydropower plant in Africa, reveals opportunities and challenges in managing the resource nexus of the Eastern Nile Basin. This study integrates an Eastern Nile river system model with a power system model comprising the Eastern portion of the East African Power Pool (i.e., Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, Djibouti, and Libya) to investigate how GERD influences the integrated resources of the Eastern Nile Basin countries. The system is modelled using an open-source water resource system simulator (Pywr) and an open-source Python power system simulator. The two simulators are linked using an open-source agent-based model integration framework (Pynsim). Based on existing and plausible future states of the system, three scenarios are formulated and examined: (1) a baseline scenario representing the existing system before GERD, (2) GERD added to the system, including the initial filling and long-term operation phases of the dam, and (3) increased irrigation water abstractions in Ethiopia and Sudan with GERD. Results show that GERD operation reduces (i) electricity curtailments in Ethiopia and Sudan, (ii) irrigation water deficits in Sudan, (iii) Sudan’s greenhouse gas emissions, and (iv) hydropower generation and irrigated water consumption in Egypt. Increasing irrigation water abstraction in Ethiopia and Sudan reduces hydropower generation basin-wide and irrigation water consumption in Egypt. This study demonstrates the benefits of an integrated modelling approach for exploring water-energy-food-environment nexus inter-connections in the Eastern Nile multi-resource system.

How to cite: Etichia, M., Gutierrez, J., Basheer, M., Martinez, E., Panteli, M., and Harou, J.: Future opportunities and risks in managing the Eastern Nile water-energy-food-environment nexus, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7731, 2021.

EGU21-10411 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

The AWESOME Project: A decision analytic framework for managing Water Energy Food and Ecosystems across sectors and scales in the South Mediterranean

Elena Matta, Matteo Giuliani, Ruslana Palatnik, Morderchai Shechter, Christiane Pyka, Demet Cekin, Mostafa Hassanen, Matteo Vincenzo Rocco, Maria Cristina Rulli, Phoebe Kondouri, Sergio Vergalli, and Andrea Castelletti

Rapid population growth and rising economic prosperity are imperatively challenging the South Mediterranean and the African North-East to a point where they may compromise the sustainable use of natural resources. In those regions, the demand for water, energy, food, and the preservation of ecosystems are expected to increase relevantly. Transboundary rivers like the Nile River Basin represent an enormous source of water, energy, food, and ecosystems (WEFE), which often brings conflicts and individualistic policies among the sharing countries. The adoption of integrated and participatory approaches that explicitly account for the WEFE Nexus are necessary to explore multisectoral synergies and tradeoffs and to generate shared economic, environmental, and societal benefits.

Focused on the Nile River Basin and born in this context, we present here the AWESOME project (i.e. mAnaging Water, Ecosystems and food across sectors and Scales in the sOuth Mediterranean), whose main objective is developing a decision-analytic framework based on a multi-level, integrated WEFE model to address the Nexus and explore the interdependencies and feedbacks across a hierarchy of spatial scales, from the macroeconomic development (macro), to regional planning (meso), down to the single farm (local).

At the local scale, a demo-site of smart agricultural solutions (soilless agriculture, e.g., hydroponics, aquaponics) is currently under construction, and it will provide indicators on effectiveness and sustainability of these new technologies to back up existing systems in a dryer future. The study on site will also demonstrate the performance of such a technology within its local economy and ecosystem. At the meso scale, we are developing a decision-analytic framework covering the course of the Nile River Basin, from the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia up to the Nile Delta, based on hydrological models and combined with the results of systems analysis methods with advanced a-posteriori multi-objective optimization algorithms. We plan to simulate existing water availability, water distributions system and new agricultural technologies, upscaling the local scale assessments while downscaling the climate, energy, crop, and ecosystems projections at the macro scale. This approach allows the design of a set of efficient solutions and associated performance with respect to the WEFE multidimensional assessment space, where stakeholders and policy makers will be able to explore multisectoral tradeoffs and negotiate potential compromise alternatives.

We expect that AWESOME will make substantial progress in complex systems analysis to support the transition towards a more sustainable and resilient agriculture along the Nile River Basin under diverging water availability and demand due to the projected impacts of changing climate and society.

How to cite: Matta, E., Giuliani, M., Palatnik, R., Shechter, M., Pyka, C., Cekin, D., Hassanen, M., Rocco, M. V., Rulli, M. C., Kondouri, P., Vergalli, S., and Castelletti, A.: The AWESOME Project: A decision analytic framework for managing Water Energy Food and Ecosystems across sectors and scales in the South Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10411, 2021.

EGU21-4041 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Worldwide water constraints on attainable irrigated production for major crops

Bram Droppers, Iwan Supit, Michelle TH van Vliet, and Fulco Ludwig

Currently, irrigation withdrawals are resulting in groundwater exploitation and unmet ecosystem water requirements. However, to achieve worldwide food security, there is a need to focus on sustainable intensification of crop production. This requires a more sustainable use of water for irrigated croplands. Our presentation focuses on quantifying attainable wheat, maize, rice and soybean production on currently irrigated cropland under sustainable water use. Attainable production accounts for increases in nutrient application, while limiting irrigation withdrawals to renewable water availability and without compromising river ecosystem water requirements.

Attainable crop production was quantified using a newly developed two-way coupling between the VIC hydrological model (Droppers et al., 2020) and the WOFOST crop model (Wit et al., 2019). This VIC-WOFOST model framework comprehensively simulates biophysical processes related to water availability and crop growth under water and nutrient limitations. Our results indicate that worldwide crop nitrogen uptake should increase by 20%, to achieve production gap closure. However, worldwide irrigation withdrawals should decrease by more than a third in order to ensure sustainable water use. Under these constraints, decreases in attainable irrigated yields of 5% are expected (14% decrease due to water constraints, 9% increase due to increased nutrient availability). Moreover, achievable irrigated crop production in the extensively irrigated croplands of north-eastern China, Pakistan and north-western India would be reduced by up to a third.

In addition we explored the impact of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on worldwide attainable irrigated production using VIC-WOFOST. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration increases crop assimilation and decreases crop transpiration. Initial results show that these effects may offset the unsustainable water withdrawals and increase attainable irrigated yields.

References:

Droppers, B., Franssen, W. H., Van Vliet, M. T., Nijssen, B., & Ludwig, F. (2020): Simulating human impacts on global water resources using VIC-5. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(10), 5029-5052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5029-2020

de Wit, A., Boogaard, H., Fumagalli, D., Janssen, S., Knapen, R., van Kraalingen, D., ... & van Diepen, K. (2019): 25 years of the WOFOST cropping systems model. Agricultural Systems, 168, 154-167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.06.018.

How to cite: Droppers, B., Supit, I., van Vliet, M. T., and Ludwig, F.: Worldwide water constraints on attainable irrigated production for major crops, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4041, 2021.

EGU21-15356 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Welfare impacts of livelihood diversification strategies in response to rainfall variability - A case study of Northern Ghana

Sarah Redicker, Roshan Adhikari, Thomas Higginbottom, Ralitza Dimova, and Timothy Foster

More than 70 percent of West Africa’s (WA) poor live in rural areas and depend largely on rain fed agriculture for food production and income generation. The livelihoods of farmers are threatened not only by long-run climate variability but also by seasonal extreme weather events that can reduce yields and increase agricultural income uncertainties. Low adoption levels of improved agricultural technologies and poor soil qualities further increase farmer vulnerability to rainfall variability. Therefore, the impacts of changes in rainfall patterns and rainfall intensity are severe and can result in the loss of income sources poverty and even food insecurity.

To mitigate against losses from these events, farmers in the region engage in several risk diversification strategies. For rural areas where adoption options are limited, diversification of agricultural production or engagement in off-farm work are the most viable options. However, governments and donor agencies pursue other strategies such as agricultural intensification through irrigation development to prepare for increased impacts of climate change. Engagement in year around irrigated agriculture can however, potentially limit farmer’s ability to participate in further risk diversification strategies, especially if these involve off-farm strategies.

A considerable amount of literature has looked at how access to irrigation benefits farmer livelihoods. However, research on this subject has been mostly restricted to benefits of dry season irrigation and impacts of irrigation in overcoming dry spells. What is not yet clear is the benefit of irrigation to overcome effects of irregular rainfall, such as late onset of rainfall in the rainy season and implications for the agricultural income and further risk diversification strategies. This paper seeks to remedy these problems by analysing whether irrigation provides enough security and agricultural income to justify that farmers focus on agriculture as main economic activity and engage in year round farming.

We address this research question in three steps. First we ask how farmers in the region are impacted by rainfall variability. We combine household survey data (n=646) with information collected in focus group discussions and climate data from a case study from North Ghana. Second, we use a two-stage regression analysis to estimate what factors affect smallholder’s decisions to adopt different risk diversification strategies across different strata of irrigation access. In the second stage, we estimate the causal relationship between diversification strategies and household welfare as measured in crop income. This study offers some important insights into applied risk diversification strategies across heterogeneous farmer groups, potentially helping to understand why so many irrigation initiatives have not been successful in involving local farmers in extensive and all year round irrigated agriculture. The comparison of drivers and constraints of diversification strategies across irrigation typologies enables us to value the worth of irrigation for smallholder households in the context of on-farm and off-farm incomes. Additionally, the combination of climate data and targeted questions in the household survey enables us to understand what seasonal rainfall events pose a risk to livelihoods and how frequently they are encountered.

How to cite: Redicker, S., Adhikari, R., Higginbottom, T., Dimova, R., and Foster, T.: Welfare impacts of livelihood diversification strategies in response to rainfall variability - A case study of Northern Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15356, 2021.

EGU21-3853 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Quantifying the impact of climate change on Food-Energy-Water nexus interactions

Hanish Dadool, Sai Jagadeesh Gaddam, and Prasanna Venkatesh Sampath

Increasing anthropogenic stresses have challenged the global population's ability to meet the growing demands of food, energy, and water (FEW). With the population set to hit 9 billion by 2050, it becomes indispensable to manage these three vital resources sustainably. Moreover, climate change is expected to have adverse consequences on agriculture, which is one of the primary occupations in developing countries like India. Extreme weather events caused by climate change could impact agricultural productivity severely, affecting economic-food-water-energy security. Hence, there is a dire need to study the impact of climate on agricultural production and its supporting resources – water and energy. Although studying the nexus between FEW is gaining attention lately, evaluating the future FEW interactions in the agricultural sector with an emphasis on climate change is missing. Therefore, this study employs a data-intensive approach to quantify the current and future FEW interactions under the impact of climate change.

First, FAO's CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to estimate crop water requirements for major crops like paddy, sugarcane, groundnut, cotton, and maize in the study area of Andhra Pradesh state, India. CROPWAT uses a soil water balance approach that requires information about several datasets like evapotranspiration, rainfall, soil, and crop information. Massive datasets such as farm-level agricultural data, station-wise rainfall data, and reference evapotranspiration data were incorporated into the model. Second, we calculate the future crop water requirements using future rainfall and temperature datasets, available till 2095, from Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario. To achieve this at the district-scale, we downscaled the information regarding temperature using the delta change method and applied the Thornthwaite method to estimate the reference evapotranspiration. Then, energy consumed by each crop in every district was quantified. Third, we estimated the current and future FEW interactions using the commonly employed two-at-one-time methodology.

Results indicated that water-intensive crops like paddy and sugarcane account for most groundwater and energy consumption. Southern districts of the state consume relatively more groundwater and energy than the northern regions. Further, high water-intensive crops like paddy were being cultivated in several dry regions, furthering the groundwater resources depletion and rising energy costs. For instance, in Kurnool district, the irrigation water requirements for paddy increased by almost 20% from the 2020s (644 mm) to the 2090s (772 mm). Clearly, such an increase can be attributed to a changing climate causing increased evapotranspiration. The resulting increase in groundwater and energy consumption, has the potential to endanger food and water security in countries like India. The approach outlined in this study also allows us to identify vulnerable hotspots that would enable policymakers to design effective adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. The synergistic benefits offered by FEW nexus approaches have the potential to ensure food security at local and global scales.

How to cite: Dadool, H., Gaddam, S. J., and Sampath, P. V.: Quantifying the impact of climate change on Food-Energy-Water nexus interactions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3853, 2021.

EGU21-6568 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Use of Coupled Human-Water Model for Evaluating the Impacts of the WEF Nexus on the Energy Potential of Crop Residues in Pakistan

Emma C. Anderson, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Jan Adamowski, Julien Malard, and Ahzar Inam

Failure to consider interactions in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus can lead to unintended outcomes. In Pakistan, research has suggested that agricultural residues are a viable alternative renewable energy source to address the persistent energy shortfalls and reliance on imported diesel and heavy fuel oil. However, these studies assess the viability from a broad scale and do not adequately account for nexus interactions. For example, a quarter of irrigated land in Pakistan is salt-affected, adversely impacting crop (and residue) yields. Failure to consider climate change impacts on water availability and agricultural productivity also increases uncertainty. Finally, the effects of socioeconomic feedbacks and water management policies are not understood.  To address these challenges, this research applies a coupled physically-based (SAYSMOD), and group (stakeholder) built system dynamics model (P-GBSDM) of the agricultural system in the lower Rechna Doab, Pakistan, to assess the sub-regional viability of residue-based energy production in salt-affected and non-salt-affected lands. The modelled area (750 km2) is within a district found highly suitable for residue-based energy. The P-GBSDM, developed by Inam et al. (2017), captures the socioeconomic and spatially-distributed environmental feedbacks related to agricultural productivity, hydrological parameters and farmer's livelihood indicators. The P-GBSDM is amended for this research to estimate crop residue yield and potential energy production and feedbacks related to farmer income (from selling residues) and crop residue removal. The model is simulated for the years 2000-2030 under different climate change scenarios and stakeholder-suggested salinity management practices. Crop (and residue) yield, equivalent collection radius, farmer income, and soil salinity are used to evaluate the residue-based energy production in this area. Results are compared to literature values. Preliminary results suggest that estimates that do not consider the WEF nexus overestimate residue-based energy generation's potential. 

How to cite: Anderson, E. C., Alizadeh, M. R., Adamowski, J., Malard, J., and Inam, A.: Use of Coupled Human-Water Model for Evaluating the Impacts of the WEF Nexus on the Energy Potential of Crop Residues in Pakistan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6568, 2021.

EGU21-685 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Prioritising ecosystem opportunities and threats of floating solar photovoltaics

Giles Exley, Rebecca R. Hernandez, Trevor Page, Michael Chipps, Stefano Gambro, Matt Hersey, Richard Lake, Kali-Stella Zoannou, and Alona Armstrong

Floating solar photovoltaic installations are an emerging form of solar energy deployed on varying types of water bodies globally. Deployments have proliferated in recent years, particularly in land-scarce areas, as the drive to decarbonise the energy-mix intensifies. However, the potential ecosystem opportunities and trade-offs of floating solar photovoltaic installations remain unclear, often acting as a barrier to deployment. Exploiting floating solar photovoltaic knowledge systems, we synthesise evidence and insight from scientists and industry stakeholders, through a systematic review, international survey and workshop, to evaluate potential opportunities and threats to ecosystems. We found that reduced evaporation is the greatest perceived opportunity of floating solar, while detrimental chemical impacts, such as anoxia and internal nutrient loading, are perceived as the greatest threat. Using this knowledge, we assessed the overarching sustainability of floating solar, using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a framework. We identified that floating solar photovoltaic installations may impact on eight of the seventeen SDGs. Given the need to rapidly develop understanding, in light of the anticipated growth rates, we prioritise the knowledge gaps and improvements critical to ensuring floating solar photovoltaic installations minimise ecosystem threats and maximise opportunities, safeguarding overall sustainability.

How to cite: Exley, G., Hernandez, R. R., Page, T., Chipps, M., Gambro, S., Hersey, M., Lake, R., Zoannou, K.-S., and Armstrong, A.: Prioritising ecosystem opportunities and threats of floating solar photovoltaics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-685, 2021.

EGU21-8733 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Assessing the Water-Energy-Food nexus on the Jucar river system using hydrometeorological forecasting and stochastic hydro-economic programming

Hector Macian-Sorribes, Patricia Marcos-Garcia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Louise Crochemore, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

Multipurpose water systems are subject to complex trade-offs among competing water uses, which could eventually have a significant potential for conflict. Hence these interlinkages should be properly identified to estimate the impact of changing allocation rules and avoid the trigger of undesirable outcomes. Concretely, forecast-based water allocation requires to assess the outputs of hydrometeorological forecasting within a sectoral context (e.g. urban, agriculture, energy) and contrast it with the current statu-quo. In this regard, stochastic hydro-economic modelling is an efficient approach to compare multipurpose water allocation rules using a common monetary unit, explicitly considering inflow uncertainty and exploiting the potential of hydrometeorological forecasting systems.

Here, we analyse the economic impacts caused by the implementation of forecast-based allocation rules on the Jucar river system in Spain. The economic revenues are calculated by combining Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) with Model Predictive Control (MPC) forced with hydrometeorological forecasts. The following forecasting systems have been considered: (1) the current system operating rules forced by historical observations, (2) SMHI’s pan-European E-HYPE hydrological forecasting system forced with bias-adjusted ECMWF System 4 seasonal meteorological forecasts and post-processed using fuzzy logic to adjust forecasts to the local hydrological conditions, (3) five seasonal meteorological forecasting systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF SEAS5, UKMO GloSEA5, MétéoFrance System 6, DWD GCFS and CMCC SPS3), bias-adjusted using linear scaling and further combined with locally-adjusted hydrological models, and (4) an ensemble system based on local observations of past river discharge.

Results show that the forecast-based allocation rules derived from SDDP and MPC improve the revenues obtained by the current policies forced by historical observations (which is the best scenario achievable without modifying the current operation). This indicates that combining stochastic modelling with seasonal forecasts improves water allocation performance without requiring a particular forecasting system. Although the agricultural benefits depend on the forecasting system considered, hydropower’s increases of economic returns are almost the same regardless of the forecast product. This means that hydropower revenues are mainly driven by the fact that forecast-based policies are adopted instead of using a particular forecasting service. Our results show that both uses (i.e. agriculture and hydropower) can simultaneously benefit from forecast-based operating rules, offering opportunities for collaboration to increase the regional water use efficiency.

Acknowledgements:

This study has been supported by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain and with EU FEDER funds, and co-funded by the postdoctoral program of Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)

How to cite: Macian-Sorribes, H., Marcos-Garcia, P., Pechlivanidis, I., Crochemore, L., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Assessing the Water-Energy-Food nexus on the Jucar river system using hydrometeorological forecasting and stochastic hydro-economic programming, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8733, 2021.

EGU21-8884 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Optimized planning and operation of interconnected multi-purpose reservoir systems using integrated modeling for climate change adaptation

Patrick Nistahl, Tim Müller, Gerhard Riedel, Hannes Müller-Thomy, and Günter Meon

Climate change impact studies performed for Northern Germany indicate a growing demand for water storage capacity to account for flood protection, low flow augmentation, drinking and agricultural water supply. At the same time, larger storage volumes for hydropower plants can be used to cope with the demands of changing energy supply from fossil to renewable energies. To tackle these challenges for the next decades, a novel reservoir system planning instrument is developed, which consists of combined numerical models and evaluation components. It allows to model simultaneously the current interconnected infrastructure of reservoirs as well as additional planning variants (structural and operational) as preparation for climate change. This planning instrument consists of a hydrological model and a detailed reservoir operation model.

As hydrological model, the conceptual, semi-distributed version of PANTA RHEI is applied.  Bias-corrected regional climate models (based on the RCP 8.5 scenario) are used as meteorological input. The hydrological model is coupled with a detailed reservoir operation model that replicates the complex rules of various interconnected reservoirs based on an hourly time step including pumped storage plants, which may have a subsurface reservoir as a lower basin. Downstream of the reservoirs, the hydrological model is used for routing the reservoir outflows and simulating natural side inflows. In areas of particular interest for flood protection, the hydrological routing is substituted with 2D hydraulic models to calculate the flood risk in terms of expected annual flood damage based on resulting inundation areas.

For the performance analysis, the simulation runs for all integrated modeling variants are evaluated for a reference period (1971-2000) and for future periods (2041-2070). Performance criteria involve flood protection, drinking water supply, low flow augmentation and energy production. These performance criteria will be used as stake holder information as well as a base for further optimization and ranking of the planning variants.

The combination of the hydrological model and the reservoir operation model shows a good performance of the existing complex hydraulic infrastructure using observed meteorological forcing as input. The usage of regional climate models as input shows a wide dispersion of several performance criteria, confirming the expected need for an innovative optimization scheme and the communication of the underlying uncertainties.

How to cite: Nistahl, P., Müller, T., Riedel, G., Müller-Thomy, H., and Meon, G.: Optimized planning and operation of interconnected multi-purpose reservoir systems using integrated modeling for climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8884, 2021.

The operation optimization of interconnected reservoirs is crucial for effective water resources management. Therefore, a decision support tool for is developed based on the forecasts of natural inflows. Standard forecast procedures are often based on historical streamflows and hydrological modelling of flows using quantitative meteorological forecasts. In recent years, forecasting using deep learning methods and especially recurrent neural networks have gained attention. Compared to other approaches such as regression-based and time series models, artificial neural networks have proven to be more effective and flexible. We propose a long short-term memory network (LSTM) for forecasting inflow into reservoirs with a large watershed. It is trained with observed hourly streamflow and meteorological data and applicable to different forecast horizons. The novelty here is the inclusion of temperature, windspeed and snow into the forecast.

The Drin river cascade (11 830 km²) in Northern Albania was selected as a pilot hydraulic system, whereby the upper part of the Drin river basin covers also parts of North Macedonia, Kosovo and Montenegro. The cascade consists of three large dams in series. The reservoirs are primarily used for energy generation and, secondarily, for flood retention. The studied LSTM forecast horizons (6, 8, 12 hours; >12 hours) indicate that the Recurrent Neural Network provides a proper forecast of the natural inflows into the reservoir cascade and thus represents a valuable tool for the optimization of the operation of the Drin Cascade under multi-criteria conditions.

How to cite: Müller, T. and Meon, G.: Optimized operation of a multireservoir system by means of Recurrent Neural Networks for inflow forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16026, 2021.

EGU21-10773 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Assessing policy coherence in the Water-Food-Ecosystems nexus

Imen Arfa, Maria Blanco, and Adrián González-Rosell

To make coherent policies and strategies in the water-food system, it is necessary to analyse the synergies and trade-offs based on indicators approach. Policy coherence is considered a fundamental part of the EU’s contribution to achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and calls for addressing the interlinkages between various SDGs. In this research, key indicators have been identified to analyse policy coherence within the water-food system in Andalusia (Spain). Furthermore, food and water policy scenarios have been simulated using a system dynamics model to evaluate future water-food trends by 2050. These provide a better understanding of how relevant policies are linked, which in turn helps to conduct integrated policy analyses and develop coherent policies and programmes across various dimensions of sustainable development.

In this region, water availability is a limiting factor for food production. Significant synergies and trade-offs were identified between water saving indicators and food production. An increase in water price causes a decrease in the irrigated area, as well as in irrigation water use. However, water pricing policies also increase crop irrigation water productivity. Agricultural policies that promote alternative sources of water, such as the reuse of treated wastewater, contribute to mitigating water scarcity, especially in the context of adaptation to climate change.

How to cite: Arfa, I., Blanco, M., and González-Rosell, A.: Assessing policy coherence in the Water-Food-Ecosystems nexus, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10773, 2021.

EGU21-12117 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Food vs water security in cities: A georeferenced sustainability assessment of peri-urban agriculture in metropolitan Barcelona using water vulnerability maps.

Cristina Madrid-Lopez, Sergi Ventura, Joan Gilabert, Joan Marull, Elena Domene, and Gara Villalba

The Fitness Check on EU water legislation concluded that there is a need to integrate water issues into other policies such as those related to urban planning. The increase of population in urban areas is expected to raise urban food demand about 50% to 60% globally by 2050. This intensifies the use of water for irrigation purposes as urban planners implement peri-urban agriculture as a way to increase food security and protect ecosystem services from urbanization. If not properly planned, urban and peri-urban agriculture can result in increasing pressures over water resources, such as aquifer depletion or nitrate pollution which impact the overall status of the water bodies. As cities start promoting local agriculture, it is important to provide policy makers with tools to determine the impacts of food production on water resources, from a geo-referenced, systemic water-energy-food perspective.

In this work, we propose a method for the regionalized assessment of the tradeoffs between peri-urban food production potential and the associated impacts over water resources and apply it to the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB). AMB is the most populated urban area of the Mediterranean coast and sixth in Europe. With over 5 million people, the AMB only produces between 7% and 10% of its food demand and the new Metropolitan Urban Master Plan (PDU) scenarios foresee a growth in agricultural land of up to 20%.

The method we propose includes three stages. First, we map peri-urban agricultural land uses available from the local land use classification by CREAF and reclassify them to Copernicus’ CORINE land cover taxonomy in order to facilitate replicability and comparability of results. Second, we use the Water Framework Directive water body status index (high, good, moderate, poor, bad) to create physical vulnerability maps of water bodies. Third, we study how water use relates to water impacts using the vulnerability maps. Following this method, we assess the water-food tradeoffs for four scenarios of agricultural land change, classifying agricultural land according to their food supply potential and water impacts. This method can be used to assess agriculture in other metropolitan regions.

This work is part of the research developed in the ERC Project URBAG: Integrated System Analysis of Urban Vegetation and Agriculture.

How to cite: Madrid-Lopez, C., Ventura, S., Gilabert, J., Marull, J., Domene, E., and Villalba, G.: Food vs water security in cities: A georeferenced sustainability assessment of peri-urban agriculture in metropolitan Barcelona using water vulnerability maps., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12117, 2021.

EGU21-15104 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Framework for co-development of an open hydrological data system to enhance climate resilience in climate vulnerable countries: Experience from a digital groundwater monitoring pilot in Nepal

Anton Urfels, Surendra Man Shakya, Surendra Maharjan, Bashu Dev Lohanee, Vishnu Pandey, Manohara Khadka, Subash Adhikari, Anil Neupane, Saral Karki, Salin Acharya, Timothy Foster, and Timothy Krupnik

Groundwater constitutes the major source of global freshwater supply - making groundwater data critical for supporting adaptation to climate change. This is especially relevant for climate vulnerable countries like Nepal, where the data needed to characterise water security risks is often either not collected, not made available, or does not meet the needs and interests of decision makers. This constitutes a gap between the availability and demand of hydrological data. Countries have limited capacity for streamlined hydrological research and data collection, which does not correspond to the numerous needs and stakeholder’s interest to handle water stress in agriculture, maintain adequate water supply for biodiversity, and ensure that drinking water is of sufficient quality. A systematic framework for reconciling these capacities and stakeholder interests is therefore necessary. Through the development of an open data collection system, the framework can (i) provide an inclusive space for multi-stakeholder dialogue and (ii) substantiate debates on water resources management and policy – both of which are currently disconnected from each other and from the hydrological realities. Without following an integrated framework, initial pilots to build open hydrological data systems are less likely to be effective as they do not deliver on their potential synergy and cross-sectoral benefits that go in hand increased awareness of scientists about the needs and interest in hydrological data for different user groups.

Here we present such a framework of using novel technologies and approaches to build an open and inclusive hydrological data system in climate vulnerable countries. The framework highlights the issues of inclusion and social sustainability, the use of models, digital technologies, and open and citizen science approaches and considers direct the policy implication of the social-ecological nature of water management: (i) field data availability as a key constraint for advancing the hydrological sciences and making informed policy decision, (ii) social aspects of the hydrological cycle for advancing our understanding of the dynamics between water and nature, and (iii) the social power of models and datasets for influencing policy processes.

The framework is based on ongoing work of piloting a digital groundwater monitoring system in Nepal, co-created by a diverse group of stakeholders, scientists and policymakers. Nepal is currently increasing investments into groundwater irrigation for which decision-makers require better data to target investments in irrigation infrastructure and gauge sustainable limits of groundwater use. A standardized system for collecting and sharing groundwater level data would cater to these information needs: Decreased transactions costs for researchers incentivize collaboration for building models that incrementally fill the gap in information availability and supply. Using our framework for the data system development will further ensure that the systems capability for early warning of localized groundwater depletion and its function as a platform for stakeholder engagement are fully leveraged. Doing so allows decision-makers and researchers to move beyond silo thinking in the agricultural sector and to learn with other sectors, build alliances towards a more integrated water information system, and include issues such as water quality and specific interests of the drinking water community.

How to cite: Urfels, A., Shakya, S. M., Maharjan, S., Lohanee, B. D., Pandey, V., Khadka, M., Adhikari, S., Neupane, A., Karki, S., Acharya, S., Foster, T., and Krupnik, T.: Framework for co-development of an open hydrological data system to enhance climate resilience in climate vulnerable countries: Experience from a digital groundwater monitoring pilot in Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15104, 2021.

EGU21-12260 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Groundwater phosphorus concentrations: global trends and links with agricultural and oil and gas activities

Jessica Warrack, Mary Kang, and Christian von Sperber

Although observations show that anthropogenic phosphorus (P) can reach groundwater supplies, there has been no comprehensive evaluation of P in groundwater at the global scale. Additionally, there have been minimal studies on distributed sources, such as agriculture, and the effects of oil and gas activities on P contamination in groundwater are poorly understood. We compile and analyze 181,653 groundwater P concentrations from 13 government agencies and 8 individual research studies in 11 different countries in order to determine the extent of P pollution at the global scale. We find that every country with data has groundwater P concentrations that pose a significant risk of eutrophication to surface waters. In Canada and the United States, we study the relationship between land use, focusing on crop/pastureland, and increased P concentrations in groundwater. In Ontario and Alberta, two Canadian provinces with different histories of oil and gas development, we find areas with a high concentration of P groundwater pollution to coincide with regions of intense oil and gas activity. Understanding the effects of anthropogenic sources on phosphorus contamination of groundwater and identifying all possible pathways through which contamination can occur will assist regulators in planning and implementing effective strategies to manage groundwater and surface water quality and sustain ecosystem health.

How to cite: Warrack, J., Kang, M., and von Sperber, C.: Groundwater phosphorus concentrations: global trends and links with agricultural and oil and gas activities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12260, 2021.

EGU21-15172 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.1

Nitrogen water pollution trading: A sustainable solution for future food production

Jamie Gonzalez Zapata and Tohid Erfani

Current change in dietary preferences brings an increase in food production. A high demand can lead to food security challenges and pressure on the agriculture sector. The agriculture sector has the largest environmental impact on water pollution due to its fertiliser usage, therefore better water management is essential to maintain its quality and availability. This research proposes a nitrogen water pollution trading model that addresses the above challenge. It incentivises farmers to continue making profit whilst reducing pollution simultaneously. We model a mathematical mixed-integer program that simulates farmers behaviour in participating in nitrogen trading based on the catchment regulation as well as their own pollution license. We apply the model amongst four local farms in the agricultural county of Suffolk, Eastern England. Emphasis has been implemented on the total oxidised nitrogen exhibited by each farm, predominantly nitrate. The nitrogen water pollution residue cost of the crops grown on each farm was applied into the model. We discuss how the trading platform can help the framers to participate in trading, increase their crop growth while maintaining the pollution regulation.

How to cite: Gonzalez Zapata, J. and Erfani, T.: Nitrogen water pollution trading: A sustainable solution for future food production, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15172, 2021.

HS5.3.3 – Innovation in hydropower operations and planning to integrate renewable energy sources and optimize the Water-Energy Nexus

EGU21-4462 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Hydropower potential assessment made easy via the unit geo-hydro-energy index

Konstantina Risva, Georgia Konstantina Sakki, Andreas Efstratiadis, and Nikos Mamassis

The design of hydropower works typically follows a top-down approach, starting from a macroscopic screening of the broader region of interest, to select promising clusters for hydroelectric exploitation, based on easily retrievable information. Manual approaches are very laborious and may fail to detect sites of significant hydropower potential. In order to facilitate this kind of studies, we provide a novel geomorphological approach to assess the hydropower potential across river networks. The method is based on the discretization of the stream network into segments of equal length, thus providing a background layer of head differences between potential abstraction and power production sites. Next, at each abstraction point, we estimate the so-called unit geo-hydro-energy index (UGHE), which is a key concept of our approach. UGHE is defined as the ratio of annual potential energy divided by the upstream catchment area, the head difference, and the unit annual runoff of the catchment, which is set equal to 1000 mm. The method is further expanded, to estimate the actual hydropotential, if spatially distributed runoff data are available. All analyses are automatized by taking advantage of the high-level interpreted programming language Python and the open-source QGIS tool. The proposed framework is demonstrated at the regional scale, involving the siting of run-of-river hydroelectric works in the Peneios river basin.

How to cite: Risva, K., Sakki, G. K., Efstratiadis, A., and Mamassis, N.: Hydropower potential assessment made easy via the unit geo-hydro-energy index, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4462, 2021.

EGU21-12887 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Application Multi-Objective Robust Decision-Making to the Design of Run-ofRiver Hydropower Plants

Veysel Yildiz, Charles Rougé, and Solomon Brown

Hydropower is a comparatively cheap, reliable, sustainable, and renewable
source of energy. Run of River (RoR) hydropower plants are characterised by a
negligible storage capacity and by generation almost completely dependent on the
timing and size of river flows. Their environmental footprint is minimal compared to that
of reservoir-powered plants, and they are much easier to deploy.
This work uses and extends HYPER, a state-of-the-art toolbox that finds the
design parameters that maximise either the RoR plant’s power production or its net
economic profit. Design parameters include turbine type (Kaplan, Francis, Pelton and
Crossflow), configuration (single or two in parallel), and design flow, along with
penstock diameter and thickness, admissible suction head, and specific and rotational
speed.
This work extends HYPER to realise hydropower system design that is robust
to climate variability and change and to changing economic conditions. It uses the many
objective robust decision making (MORDM) approach through the following steps: (1)
an explicit three objective formulation is introduced to explore how design parameter
choices balance investment cost, average annual revenue, and drought year (first
percentile) revenue, (2) coupling of a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (here,
AMALGAM) with HYPER to solve the problem using 1,000 years of synthetic
streamflow data obtained with the Hirsch-Nowak streamflow generator, (3) sampling
of deeply uncertain factors to analyse robustness to climate change as well as financial
conditions (electricity prices and interest rates), (4) quantification of robustness across
these deeply uncertain states of the world. We also extend HYPER by adding the
possibility to consider three-turbine RoR plants.
The HYPER-MORDM approach is applied to a proposed RoR hydropower plant
to be built on Mukus River in Van province which is located in Eastern Anatolia region
of Turkey. Preliminary results suggest that applying MORDM approach to RoR
hydropower plants provides insights into the trade-offs between installation cost and
hydropower production, while supporting design with a range of viable alternatives to
help them determine which design and RoR plant operation is most robust and reliable
for given site conditions and river stream characteristics. Results confirm earlier
findings that installation of more than one turbine in a hydropower plant enhances
power production significantly by providing operational flexibility in the face of variable
streamflows. When contrasting robustness of a design with its benefit / cost ratio, a
classic measure of performance of hydropower system design which accounts only for
annual revenues and cost, designs with the highest benefit / cost ratios do not
necessarily perform well in terms of dry year revenue. They also show less robustness
to both climate change (and associated drying) and to evolving financial conditions
than the designs that do better balance average annual revenue with dry year revenue

How to cite: Yildiz, V., Rougé, C., and Brown, S.: Application Multi-Objective Robust Decision-Making to the Design of Run-ofRiver Hydropower Plants, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12887, 2021.

EGU21-2398 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

A dilemma of small hydropower plants: Design with uncertainty or uncertainty within design?

Georgia-Konstantina Sakki, Ioannis Tsoukalas, Panagiotis Kossieris, and Andreas Efstratiadis

Small hydropower plants (SHPPs) are subject to multiple uncertainties and complexities, despite their limited scale. These uncertainties are often ignored in the typical engineering practice, which results in risky design. As this type of renewable energy rapidly penetrates the electricity mix, the impacts of their uncertainties, exogenous and endogenous, become critical. In this vein, we develop a stochastic simulation-optimization framework tailored for small hydropower plants. First, we investigate the underlying multicriteria design problem and its peculiarities, in order to determine a best-compromise performance metric that ensures efficient and effective optimizations. Next, we adjust to the optimal design problem a modular uncertainty assessment procedure. This combines statistical and stochastic approaches to quantify the uncertainty of the inflow process per se, the associated input data, the initial selection of efficiency curves for the turbine mixing in the design phase, as well as the drop of efficiency due to aging effects. Overall, we propose a holistic framework for the optimal design of SHPPs, highlighting the added value of considering the stochasticity of input processes and parameters. The novelty of this approach is the transition from the conventional to the uncertainty-aware design; from the unique value to Pareto-optimality, and finally to the reliability of the expected performance, in terms of investment costs, hydropower production, and associated revenues.

How to cite: Sakki, G.-K., Tsoukalas, I., Kossieris, P., and Efstratiadis, A.: A dilemma of small hydropower plants: Design with uncertainty or uncertainty within design?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2398, 2021.

EGU21-14118 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Virtual energy storage-gain due to spatiotemporal coordination of wind-, solar- and hydropower over Europe

Anders Wörman, Daniela Mewes, Joakim Riml, Cintia Bertacchi-Uvo, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

The functionality of a renewable electricity system in Europe depends on long-term climate variations, uneven spatiotemporal distribution of renewable energy, and constraints of storage and electric transmission. In particular, hydropower offers a large capacity for energy storage and production flexibility, but only stands for a minor part of the total energy potential. Here we explored the spatial and temporal power variance of a combined system consisting of wind-, solar- and hydropower availability for a 35-year period based on historical hydro-meteorological data from large parts of Europe. A spectral analysis of these historical time-series shows that spatiotemporal coordination within the power system can potentially contribute with a “virtual” energy storage capacity that is many times higher than the actual energy storage capacity contained in the existing hydropower reservoirs in Europe. Such virtual energy storage capacity implies reduced water storage demand, hence, indirectly contributes to reduced constraints of the food-water-energy nexus also in a wider system perspective. This study focused on the theoretical maximum potential for virtual energy storage, but the feasibility of this potential is limited by the uncertainty associated with production optimization and the meteorologic forecasts of future energy availability.

How to cite: Wörman, A., Mewes, D., Riml, J., Bertacchi-Uvo, C., and Pechlivanidis, I.: Virtual energy storage-gain due to spatiotemporal coordination of wind-, solar- and hydropower over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14118, 2021.

EGU21-9919 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Valuing feedback mechanisms between water and energy systems in hydropower networks

Rachel Koh, Jordan Kern, AFM Kamal Chowdhury, and Stefano Galelli

Multi-sector modelling frameworks are fundamental platforms for exploring the complex interactions between the water and energy sectors. While acknowledging the pivotal role of hydropower within the energy system, it is essential to understand the feedback mechanisms between power and water systems to guide the design of hydropower operations and enhance water-energy management strategies. With this in mind, we developed a modelling framework hinged on a bidirectional coupling between water and power system models. We simulate the constraints imposed by water availability on grid operations as well as the feedback between the state of the energy and water systems. For example, the framework explicitly accounts for conditions of hydropower oversupply, during which part of the water could be stored in reservoirs or allocated to other sectors. The flexibility added to the system gives operators control over desired reservoirs, and allows the system to exploit the benefits warranted by a more efficient use of renewable energy. We evaluate the framework on a real-world case study based on the Cambodian grid, which relies on hydro, solar, and thermoelectric resources. In our analysis, we demonstrate that managing hydropower reservoirs with the feedback mechanism in mind allows us to improve system’s performance—evaluated in terms of power production costs and CO2 emissions. Overall, our work contributes a novel modelling tool for climate-water-energy nexus studies, working towards an optimal integration of hydropower and other renewable energy sources into power systems.

How to cite: Koh, R., Kern, J., Chowdhury, A. K., and Galelli, S.: Valuing feedback mechanisms between water and energy systems in hydropower networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9919, 2021.

EGU21-1843 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

A new representation of conventional hydropower in unit commitment economic dispatch models to support resource adequacy and reliability studies

Nathalie Voisin, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Sean Turner, Mitch Clement, Tim Magee, Edith Zagona, Quentin Ploussard, and Thomas Veselka

The Western U.S. relies heavily on hundreds of water-dependent power plants, with hydropower and fresh surface water dependent thermo-electric plants accounting for over 60% of generating capacity.  The Western Interconnect overlays 11 States, over three different electricity market areas, and 9 large river basins with tens of unconnected watersheds as well as tens of coordinated watersheds. Such complexity requires computational tradeoffs for the representation of the water-energy dependencies, including a centrally controlled unit commitment and economic dispatch as well as an offline representation of hydropower’s availability and operations. Benchmark hydropower representations for application to resource adequacy studies include i) fixed daily time series and ii) a parameterized monthly representation involving three constraints: a monthly energy target, and hourly minimum and maximum generation. The representations are derived for one year and under average water conditions. We propose a large-scale approach to represent medium-term (weekly) hydropower flexibility for grid-scale reliability studies, as driven by weekly water availability. Using a combination of hydrological models, reservoir operation schemes, and statistical tools, we develop datasets of hydropower plant-specific weekly energy targets, with weekly minimum and maximum hourly generation, for multiple years with varying water conditions. The assumption – and computational tradeoff - is that water availability guides the weekly operations and range of daily operations, leaving enough flexibility for the power system optimization to accommodate intra-day, week days and weekends load variations. We present the hydropower datasets and evaluate how this new representation influences the simulated contribution of hydropower to grid operations as part of resource adequacy and reliability studies.

How to cite: Voisin, N., Oikonomou, K., Turner, S., Clement, M., Magee, T., Zagona, E., Ploussard, Q., and Veselka, T.: A new representation of conventional hydropower in unit commitment economic dispatch models to support resource adequacy and reliability studies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1843, 2021.

The evaluation of the stakeholders’ perception of new hydropower projects is essential for assessing public acceptance, ensuring local involvement, and identifying feasible and desirable changes towards sustainable development. This study uses the concept of causal diagrams (CD) to identify the individual perspectives of stakeholders of two new hydropower projects, one in Switzerland (Val d’Ambra project) and one in Iceland (Hvammvirkjun project). For this purpose, semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders were conducted, which were then categorized into 5 interest groups. Using the software Atlas.ti, we identified and sequenced the perceived causality of impact pathways of the two projects. The results are exposed in two series of 10 topical causal networks, and two aggregated diagrams. For each case, CDs expose the complexity of multi-sequenced causalities between elements of a very heterogeneous nature, as expected and reported by stakeholders. This approach enables the identification of inter- and intra-group conflicting perspectives, and perceived uncertainties, concerning both subjectives matters along with much more tangible and predictable aspects. Our method enables the identification of areas where further research or better transfer of information between stakeholders is required. It also exposes how hydropower impacts can differ in time and space, when in one case study, intracommunity tensions and conflicts were identified at the earliest project stage, along with psychological distress of some local residents. Based on the presented CD, we conclude that this method can facilitate communication and problem-solving in complex social-environmental situations amid multiple stakeholder categories, which heterogeneity should not be underestimated.

This research has been published in Energy Research and Social Science:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629620304473

How to cite: Voegeli, G. and Finger, D. C.: Conflicting interests over hydropower: Identifying and representing stakeholder perspectives on new projects using causal mapping. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16362, 2021.

EGU21-8868 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Hybrid hydropower-connected floating solar PV plants: impact of the downstream water release constraint

Stanislas Merlet, Magnus Korpås, and Bjørn Thorud

Solar and wind power continue to dominate the renewable energy expansion, jointly accounting for more than 90% of the new capacity installed in 2019. Hydropower, however, still accounts for 47% of the 2,537 GW of global renewable power in operation. Solar power continued to lead the yearly expansion, for the fourth year in a row, with an annual increase of +20% while hydropower capacity increased by +1%. However, the inherent intermittency and stochastic nature of solar PV is a well-known obstacle to the further large-scale integration of the technology in existing power systems. Large-scale reservoir hydropower offers a cost-competitive, mature and dispatchable alternative that can provide both production flexibility and storage. Nonetheless, the costs of large hydropower are highly site-specific and new capacity development has been more and more constrained by substantial environmental and social impacts in many places worldwide. Solar power and hydropower resources have been identified to be quite complementary and hybrid plants could have many flexibility benefits in addition to the increase of renewable energy production. In this context, floating solar PV (FPV) on hydropower reservoirs is emerging as a relevant solution to accommodate both energy sources at the same location.

Adding FPV to an existing hydropower plant, aiming at hybridizing the output, might impact its reservoir operations and water-related constraints need to be carefully considered. Solar PV can contribute to saving water on mid- to long-term scheduling considering that solar energy generation corresponds in some extent to non-turbined water, i.e. saved energy. Besides, on the short-term time scale, one of the main benefits is that hydropower could, in some extent, compensate for the variability of PV generation by its rapidly adjustable output. In practice, a utility-scale solar PV plant could lose several MW of generation in seconds, if a large cloud passes, for example. To avoid consequences on the power grid, this energy loss would need to be translated almost immediately (according to available capacity and ramp rates capabilities) to hydropower generation, meaning substantial (and potentially more frequent) surges in released water downstream.

The presentation investigates these opportunities and challenges linked to reservoir operations of hybrid hydropower-connected floating solar PV plants and provide inputs on optimal solutions.

How to cite: Merlet, S., Korpås, M., and Thorud, B.: Hybrid hydropower-connected floating solar PV plants: impact of the downstream water release constraint, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8868, 2021.

EGU21-14166 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Introduced flow variability and its propagation downstream of hydropower stations in Sweden

Maria Elenius and Göran Lindström

Hydropower provides a low-carbon solution to a large portion of Sweden’s energy demand, which is increasingly important in order to combat climate change. However, associated flow regulations introduce variability of the flow on the daily, weekly and seasonal time scales, driven by the varying energy demand. Additional variability is introduced when compensating for the shifting wind energy production. The Water framework directive requires all EU member states to evaluate the ecological impact from anthropogenic activities, such as hydropower. Ecological impacts must also be assessed when all hydropower permissions in Sweden are renewed over the coming 20 years. Because different species are sensitive to different longevity of high- and low-flow periods, it is important to understand the introduced variability of flow in terms of its dominant periods, and how quickly these perturbations are attenuated downstream of regulations.

In this work, time-series of flow from hydrological simulations with HYPE are analyzed with the Fourier transform to examine the amplitudes of perturbations of different periods, and their decay downstream of hydropower stations. HYPE is a catchment-based model that simulates rainfall-runoff as well as water quality processes. The Swedish model application has been developed over the past decade and covers all of Sweden. Seasonal regulations are modeled with calibrated input parameters, whereas short-term regulations are introduced with station updates from observations that are available at or close to the majority of hydropower regulations. Very high accuracy has been proven between the updated sub-catchments. This, together with a verified model for natural flow, gives us a unique opportunity to study the impact of hydropower on dominant periods and their decay over the entire country, as well as the mechanisms that govern this decay.

In many sub-catchments, especially in large regulated rivers in northern Sweden, Fourier analysis of daily time series results in dominance of the 7-day period. The exponential decay rate of this and other modes is presented for all Sweden and analyzed in terms of land use and other parameters. Short periods decay faster than long ones. Periods of one month or longer are amplified in the downstream direction in most of Sweden.

Apart from aid in ecological assessments, our analysis can be used to introduce short-term regulations in hydrological simulators, for either deterministic forecasts (the 7-day mode typically has a minimum value on Sundays) or for stochastic seasonal forecasts where it will impact indicators such as the number of days below or above a threshold.

How to cite: Elenius, M. and Lindström, G.: Introduced flow variability and its propagation downstream of hydropower stations in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14166, 2021.

EGU21-953 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Vanishing weekly cycles in American and Canadian hydropeaking rivers

Stephen Dery, Tricia Stadnyk, Tara Troy, and Marco Hernandez-Henriquez

Sub-daily and weekly streamflow cycles termed hydropeaking are common features in regulated rivers across the globe. Weekly periodicity in flows arises from fluctuating hydropower demand and production tied to socioeconomic activity, typically with higher consumption during weekdays followed by reductions on weekends. In this presentation, we will introduce a novel weekly hydropeaking index to quantify the intensity and prevalence of weekly hydropeaking cycles at 368 sites across the United States of America (USA) and Canada over 1920-2019. Our results reveal a robust weekly hydropeaking signal exists at 1.3% of available sites starting in 1920 with a fraction that peaks at 16.7% of sites in 1963. Highly hydropeaking signals then diminish to only 3.3% of available sites in 2019, marking a 21st century declining pattern in hydropeaking intensity across parts of North America. Application of the Mann-Kendall Test reveals 95 locally significant declines in weekly hydropeaking intensity between 1980-2019. Our results can be attributed to diminishing differences between streamflow on weekends versus weekdays in regulated rivers across Canada and the USA. We will conclude the presentation with a discussion on how these findings may be tied to shifts in socioeconomic activity, alternative modes of electricity production, and legislative and policy changes impacting water management in regulated systems.

How to cite: Dery, S., Stadnyk, T., Troy, T., and Hernandez-Henriquez, M.: Vanishing weekly cycles in American and Canadian hydropeaking rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-953, 2021.

EGU21-8543 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Risk of increased hydrological alteration due to penetration of intermittent renewable energy generation

Jose M. Gonzalez, James Tomlinson, Eduardo A. Martínez-Ceseña, Emmanuel Obuobie, Mathaios Panteli, and Julien Harou

The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar PV and wind is rapidly growing in many countries. Due to the RES intermittency, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage the balance between energy generation and demand at any time. In this context, it is necessary to use other energy generation technologies, such as hydropower, a controllable renewable source that may already be available as a means to provide energy balance. Hydropower, through hydropeaking, is considered a flexible solution to this challenge as it can quickly help manage the fluctuations in the generation-demand balance due to the highly RES intermittency. Hydropeaking plants usually supply energy at maximum capacity during on-peak periods, whereas they run at low power output during off-peak periods. However, this operating scheme leads to heavy hydrological alteration downstream of the hydropower plants because of short-term fluctuations in turbined flows motivated by the integration of intermittent RES. In this work, an integrated and spatially distributed river-basin and energy system co-simulation model is used to evaluate the hydrological alteration produced by varying penetration levels of intermittent RES in Ghana's national power system. Results show that the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrological alteration, correlated with intermittent RES penetration levels, varies according to the hydropower plants' location within the power system and the intermittent renewable resources seasonality throughout the year.

How to cite: Gonzalez, J. M., Tomlinson, J., Martínez-Ceseña, E. A., Obuobie, E., Panteli, M., and Harou, J.: Risk of increased hydrological alteration due to penetration of intermittent renewable energy generation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8543, 2021.

The quest for a lower operational cost of daily scheduling cascade hydropower generation is subject to imperfections in the representation of reality due to it multiple uncertainties. One way to reduce uncertainties is to improve the representation of the hydrological processes and the operation of the electrical components of the system. A complementary strategy to deal with the difficulty of representing hydrological processes is to move from a deterministic approach to a probabilistic approach considering scenarios. These two proposals usually lead to high-dimensional problems that require Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming for solving. This work proposes the use of simple Constructive Heuristics to solve this kind of problem guarding the non-linear formulations. The GAMS software was used to represent a hydropower cascade with individualized turbine with multiple inflow scenarios as presented in the formulation bellow. For each scenario s:

Z is the objective function. a is a coefficient considered in the proposed Constructive Heuristic. Q is the outflow of the turbine. H is the set of hydropower plants. U is the set of turbines. t is the set of hours considered in the problem. s is the set of considered scenarios. α is a conversion term. τ is the time delay of the hydropower plants. β is the set of hydropower plants located upstream of a hydropower plant. I is the incremental flow. V is the volume of the reservoir. D is the power demand. Pg is power generated per turbine. Pmin and Pmax are the thresholds of power of the turbine. Pst is the net power generated by the turbine. Pgg are the electrical losses of the generator. Pmt are the mechanical losses of the generator. f1, f2, f3, f4, f5, f6, f7 and f8 are functions. HH is the hydraulic net head. UP is the upstream level. Down is the downstream level. Lo are the hydraulic and mechanical losses. ρ is the turbine efficiency curve. The CONOPT solver was selected for it resolution. The  Constructive Heuristic scheme considers a continuous variable “a” to represent if the turbine is opened or closed. After the first resolution of the problem with Nonlinear Programming, the integer part number of turbines for each power plant is fixed. The fractional part is tested for all the possible configurations and the best outcome is chosen. The results of the Constructive Heuristic were compared with other similar works with perfect correspondence. The system was tested for 51 ECMWF precipitation forecast scenarios as input of the hydrologic model MGB (Large Basin Model) with coherent results. The proposal is a feasible approach to reach unique optimal solutions for high-dimensional non-linear problems considering integer variables.

How to cite: Firmo Kazay, D. and Mendonça da Rocha, C. R.: A Constructive Heuristic approach for solving Mixed Integer Nonlinear cascade optimization considering an hydrological uncertainty model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2903, 2021.

EGU21-12372 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Optimization of small hydropower systems in water distribution networks through evolutionary algorithms and water demand forecasting

Robert Sitzenfrei, Lukas Schartner, and Martin Oberascher

The transition from fossil fuel to renewable energies represents the central challenge of the early 21st century. In this context, small hydro power systems (SHPS) can be implemented in water distribution networks (WDNs) to use pressure and drinking water surplus for hydropower production. However, inflow to SHPS is normally controlled based on the available water volume after ensuring a reliable drinking water supply and considering a fire-fighting reserve. Hence, the hydropower generation in WDNs has to be in accordance with its primary tasks. The challenge now is to optimally use the available pressure and water surplus for hydropower production while at the same time reliably fulfilling drinking water constraints.

In this work, future predictions of daily water demand are added into the control strategy of SHPS to optimize the operation. The control procedure of a SHPS is optimized by means of an evolutionary algorithm in combination with Monte-Carlo sampling. This is done for different categorized water demand and water source data in order to maximize profit while ensuring the WDNs reliable operation. Further, water demand forecasts of varying quality are evaluated in combination with previously optimized and categorized SHPS control-sets. For case study, a real WDN of an Alpine municipality is hypothetically retrofitted with a controllable SHPS. Different types of SHPS and turbine characterises are investigated using amount of hydropower production, more specifically profitability, as performance indicator.

While in literature, optimization is usually performed based on representative days (e.g., average day demand), long-term simulations over 10 years are used in this work. Therefore, a sufficient supply pressure in all water demand nodes in the WDN is ensured during this period. This results in a significant lower but more realistic estimation of potential benefits. The results also show, that after optimizing the SHPS location and device size, an additional potential increase of yearly profit of 1.1% can be achieved in the long-term operation of a Pelton turbine by considering water demand forecasts.

How to cite: Sitzenfrei, R., Schartner, L., and Oberascher, M.: Optimization of small hydropower systems in water distribution networks through evolutionary algorithms and water demand forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12372, 2021.

EGU21-728 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Impact of climate change on abstraction for hydropower and public water supply in Wales, UK

Richard Dallison and Sopan Patil

The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and catchment processes has been extensively studied. In Wales, such changes are projected to have a substantial impact on hydrological regimes. However, the impact on the water abstraction capability of key sectors in the country, such as hydropower (HP) and public water supply (PWS), is not yet fully understood. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future (2021-2054) daily streamflows under a worst-case scenario of greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) at two large catchments in Wales, the Conwy and Tywi. SWAT streamflow output is used to estimate the abstractable water resources, and therefore changes in the average generation characteristics for 25 run-of-river HP schemes across Conwy and Tywi and the total unmet demand for a single large PWS abstraction in the Tywi. This unmet PWS demand is assessed using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system under increasing, static, and declining demand scenarios. Mann-Kendall trend analysis is performed to detect and characterise the trends for both sectors.

Results show greater seasonality in abstraction potential through the study period, with an overall decrease in annual abstraction volume due to summer and autumn streamflow declines outweighing increases seen in winter and spring. For HP, these trends result in a projected decline in annual power generation potential, despite an increasing number of days per year that maximum permitted abstraction is reached. For PWS, under all future demand scenarios, annually there is an increase in the number of days where demand is not met as well as the total shortfall volume of water. Our results suggest that currently installed HP schemes may not make optimal use of future flows, and that the planning of future schemes should take account of these to ensure the most efficient operation is achieved. Moreover, PWS supply sustainability is under threat and will require management and mitigation measures to be implemented to ensure future supplies. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on the future water resource availability in Wales, giving context to management planning to ensure future HP generation efficiency and PWS sustainability.

How to cite: Dallison, R. and Patil, S.: Impact of climate change on abstraction for hydropower and public water supply in Wales, UK, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-728, 2021.

EGU21-12744 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.3

Energy estimation of resonant waves in channels with lateral cavities

Adrián Navas-Montilla, Carmelo Juez, and Noelia Garijo

Macro-roughness elements, such as lateral cavities and embayments, are usually built in the banks of rivers for different purposes. They can be used to create harbors, or to promote morphological diversity that enhance habitat suitability in an attempt to restore the sediment cycle in channelized rivers. In presence of lateral cavities, shallow water flows may exhibit a rhythmic water surface oscillation, called seiche. The formation of the seiche is triggered by the partially bounded in-cavity water body which leads to the generation of a standing wave. Amplitude and periodicity of the seiche is jointly controlled by the dominant eigenmodes of the standing wave and by the turbulent shear layer structures created at the opening of the cavity. Seiches have been studied in the past decades putting the focus on their impact on river hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. However, the study of the seiches from an energy harvesting perspective is still unexplored. Seiche waves could represent a distributed hydropower source with a low environmental impact, being energy extraction possibly integrated with river restoration works. In this work, we use an in-house  numerical simulation model to reproduce the water surface oscillation in a channel with multiple lateral cavities and study their wave energy potential. The interaction of multiple cavities has an additional effect in the propagation and formation of multiple standing waves, ultimately leading to two-dimensional and multi-modal seiche waves. Therefore, a detailed analysis of the seiche amplitude and energy spatial distribution is presented.

How to cite: Navas-Montilla, A., Juez, C., and Garijo, N.: Energy estimation of resonant waves in channels with lateral cavities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12744, 2021.

HS5.3.4 – Multi-scale water-energy-land nexus planning to manage socio-economic, climatic, and technological change

EGU21-15989 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Climate Land Energy Water nexus models reviewed across scales: progress, gaps and best accessibility practices

Adriano Vinca, Keywan Riahi, Andrew Rowe, and Ned Djilali

Approaches that integrate feedbacks between climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) have increasingly advanced and have become more complex. Such so called nexus approaches have already been useful in quantitatively assessing strategies under resource scarcity, planning infrastructure for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals or assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts. However, most of the models and frameworks do often miss some important inter-linkages that could actually be addressed by using newest models. The reason for such negligence is often technical and practical, as many of the newly developed and open-source frameworks are not yet widespread. We review and present these models so that decision maker needing tools for analysis could identify what is best for their needs. Particular attention is given to model usability, accessibility, longevity and community support. At the same time we discuss research gaps, and room for improvement for next development of the models from a scientific point of view. We explore at different scales where and why some nexus interaction are most relevant. We find that both very small scale and global model tend to neglect some CLEW interaction, but for different reasons. The first rarely include climate impacts, which are often marginal at local level. While the latter mostly lack pieces because of the complexity of large full CLEW system at the global level.

How to cite: Vinca, A., Riahi, K., Rowe, A., and Djilali, N.: Climate Land Energy Water nexus models reviewed across scales: progress, gaps and best accessibility practices, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15989, 2021.

EGU21-13811 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4 | Highlight

The Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Research Project

Jennie Rice and the IM3 Author Team

The Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) foundational science research project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, focuses on developing flexible, open-source, integrated modeling capabilities that capture the structure, dynamic behavior, and emergent properties of the multiscale interactions within and between human and natural systems. IM3 uses these capabilities to study the evolution, vulnerability, and resilience of interacting human and natural systems and landscapes from local to continental scales within the U.S., including responses to the compounding effects of long-term influences and short-term shocks. A key objective is to understand the implications of uncertainty in data, observations, models, and model coupling approaches for projections of human-natural system dynamics. IM3’s first phase (2017-2020) focused on regional-scale energy-water dynamics, interactions between land use and land cover change and regional climate, and on generating 1-km2 population and urbanization projections consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Current research is projecting the compound influences of climate change, heat waves, drought, socioeconomics, population, and urbanization on the dynamic interactions between energy, water, land, and urban systems during the 21st century, while maintaining consistency with global socioeconomic conditions. Experimental objectives include understanding the key drivers and interactions affecting the evolution of urban heat, water scarcity, and electricity grid stress. Modeling scales include the continental U.S., major electricity interconnections, watersheds, and urban areas, and experiments investigate the fidelity implications of differential spatiotemporal and process resolutions across scales. IM3 is also coordinating (and invites participation in) an open Community of Practice to establish a conceptual framework for the field of multisector dynamics to accelerate progress across relevant projects and areas of research. This presentation will outline the scope and challenges of IM3 as a transdisciplinary project seeking to contribute new insights and modes of analysis across scales, sectors, and systems.

How to cite: Rice, J. and the IM3 Author Team: The Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Research Project, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13811, 2021.

EGU21-14550 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Operational planning of WEF infrastructure: quantifying the value of cooperation in the Eastern Nile basin

Jeroen Verhagen, Pieter van der Zaag, and Edo Abraham

Integrating the operational planning of river, land and power infrastructure could safeguard the water, energy and food security in regions where these resources are under pressure by increasing demands and decreasing availabilities and production potentials. Our work focuses on the benefits of integration and cooperation in the operational planning of these resources and infrastructures between riparian states in transboundary river basins. Therefore we introduce a regional hard-linked WEF-nexus model that explicitly represents resource connectivity networks, gridded agro-hydrological potentials and constraints, national socio-economic demands and non-linear operational processes to optimise reservoir operations, water allocations, cropping patterns, electricity mixes and trade quantities on a monthly time-step over multiple years in a receding horizon fashion. This iterative process facilitates the modelling of changes as feedback against exogenous disturbances and, through the exchange of information between countries, different levels of cooperation. We optimize the total economic returns of resource allocation for four different transboundary cooperation scenarios over an historic planning period in the Eastern Nile basin, for each country and regionally, for multiple foresight settings and policy objectives. Compared to the reference scenario of unilateral planning, our results indicate an increase in regional economic returns for scenarios in which flow information is shared between countries (+8%), flow and trade information is shared (+9%) and resources are coordinated regionally (+13%), without this being accompanied by a significant decline in returns for any country. These increased returns successively come from an increase in the effectiveness of agricultural water consumption, especially in Sudan, a change in trade patterns for agricultural products and a shift in cropping patterns. These findings illustrate the importance of adequate representations of spatial and temporal heterogeneity and resource connectivity, and the need for a  more  diverse  set  of  collaboration  scenarios  to  quantify the  costs  and  benefits  of  specific  interventions  and  policies to facilitate comprehensively planning in transboundary river systems.

How to cite: Verhagen, J., van der Zaag, P., and Abraham, E.: Operational planning of WEF infrastructure: quantifying the value of cooperation in the Eastern Nile basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14550, 2021.

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus has gained growing interest in recent years as a promising approach to overcome governance failures in dealing with complex resource management challenges. Various qualitative and quantitative methods from different disciplines have been used to understand Nexus issues, but just few of these take into account (1) the role of institutions on interactions, and (2) the intertwinedness of social and ecological interactions, which cause social-ecological patterns in Nexus issues.

This paper introduces an approach to address that methodological gap. Specifically, the paper links two nascent approaches –the Networks of Action Situations (NAS) approach and the Social-Ecological Action Situations (SE-AS) framework. The value and the potential of the approach introduced is illustrated for two Nexus cases with a problem constellation, which is quite typical for many regions in the world. The two cases are reservoir-lake-river-cascades with water uses for drinking water, energy- and food-production in the canton of Zurich and in the canton of Bern, Switzerland. The results show governance gaps and coordination problems regarding the WEF Nexus. The governance processes prioritise energy production in both WEF Nexus cases and drinking water in one case. Both cases do not take into account food production in the coordination processes. The study presents the value of the approach by demonstrating the ways in which institutions limit or support synergies, how adjacent actions situations shape decisions with immediate relevance for collective outcomes in WEF Nexus, and how the intertwined interplay of social-ecological interactions jointly and dynamically generate social-ecological patterns in Nexus situations.

How to cite: Kellner, E.: Capturing Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus as a network phenomenon in social ecological systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10370, 2021.

EGU21-13766 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Integrated Spatial and Economic Analysis on Water Infrastructure Expansion Profitability and Affecting Climatic Factors within the Central Valley of California

Mahesh Lal Maskey, Liying Li, Angel S. Fernandez-Bou, Joshua H. Viers, and Josue Medellin-Azuara

Climate signals have been consistently changing over the past century, together with increased population and human activities. Consequently, notable shifts in timing and magnitude of floods and drought and declining surface and subsurface water storage have been seriously posing effects on water supply and demand throughout the planet. Hence, it becomes relevant to understand the optimal water allocation to different water users such as agriculture, urban, environmental, and wildlife refuge and manage water infrastructure projects accordingly to support optimal water allocation. In the past, we have shown the successful application of the statewide hydro-economic model, also known as CALVIN (California Value Integrated Network)1,2, to minimize water allocation costs and optimize water utility under the policy, operational, and environmental constraints.

This study utilizes economic and water allocation output from the CALVIN model historical run (1921 to 2003; monthly scale), and it explores the opportunity cost of water storage and conveyance expansion in California (economic data based on 2050 projected water use3,4). This study performs a time series analysis on the marginal economic value of expansion to characterize the correlation between historical climatic factors with water allocation capacity extension to characterize how climate events such as droughts or floods can affect the profitability of water infrastructure expansion projects. The result provides useful information for statewide planners and decision-makers in setting coping strategies for the future under climate change conditions5,6. Additionally, this study uses the historical run expansion cost results to identify the most profitable water infrastructure expansion locations using spatial analysis. This study concentrates on agriculture and urban water demands from surface and groundwater sources and categorizes the water allocation over different water years dictated by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). This study offers a holistic approach to elucidate responses of existing water supply-demand nexus, and the results will be useful for the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of California.

References:

 

How to cite: Maskey, M. L., Li, L., Fernandez-Bou, A. S., Viers, J. H., and Medellin-Azuara, J.: Integrated Spatial and Economic Analysis on Water Infrastructure Expansion Profitability and Affecting Climatic Factors within the Central Valley of California, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13766, 2021.

EGU21-2270 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Designing sustainable energy plans for the Greater Mekong Subregion

Stefano Galelli, Kais Siala, AFM Kamal Chowdhury, and Thanh Duc Dang

Fossil fuels and hydropower dams have long been at the backbone of power supply systems in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), an energy policy catalyzed by the direct availability of these resources, the backing of foreign investments, and the limited coordination among the many decision-makers. Such policy has resulted in large externalities: gas and coal-fired plants contribute to the carbon footprint of all GMS countries, particularly Thailand; dams have affected the riverine ecosystems, impacting entire economic sectors. According to the official energy plans, coal will be soon sidelined, but dams will keep playing an important role. That is despite the availability of solar and other renewable resources. Is it possible to design more sustainable energy plans for the GMS? Can we limit the number of dams that will be built in the near future? What are the main technologies and policies that should be prioritized? To answer these questions, we developed a spatially-distributed numerical model that co-optimizes capacity expansion as well as hourly dispatch of generation, transmission, and storage. The model is applied to Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, over a planning period spanning from 2016 to 2037. Optimization results show that the generation capacity planned by these countries could be met in a more sustainable manner by relying on solar PV, which could supply about one third of the projected electricity demand. Investments in renewable energy should be supported by cross-border grid interconnections, which would connect load centers to more production sites, easing the supply-demand balancing. To put the analysis in a broader water-energy context, we also assess the impact of current and proposed energy plans on river connectivity and flows. Overall, our analysis demonstrates that there are untapped opportunities for untying the fate of the Mekong River basin from that of power supply and economic development.

How to cite: Galelli, S., Siala, K., Chowdhury, A. K., and Dang, T. D.: Designing sustainable energy plans for the Greater Mekong Subregion, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2270, 2021.

EGU21-1193 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

 Water-Energy-Food Nexus assessment of the intended outcomes of the Songwe River Basin Programme in Malawi and Tanzania

Sara Masia, Zolo Kiala, Janez Sušnik, Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, and Graham Jewitt

Water, Energy, and Food sectors are interconnected and part of a complex system referred to as the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus. The assessment of WEF interactions through the nexus approach is crucial to illustrate interlinkages, synergies, and minimise trade-offs among these three components when development plans are assessed. Water, energy, and food are at the core of developing countries' goals and strategies where interest in the WEF nexus approach is rapidly growing. However, a lack of empirical evidence, appropriate methods, and quantitative WEF nexus assessment tools has been highlighted. Thus, WEF Nexus Toolkit (WEF-Tools) project aims at supporting policymakers across the water, energy, and food sectors to make evidence-based decisions on environmental, economic, and resource security issues. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the WEF nexus in the Songwe River Basin (SRB), located on the border between Malawi and Tanzania. Reducing poverty, improving human health and livelihoods, ensuring water, food, and energy security, mitigating floods, and enhancing sustainable river basin management are the main challenges recognised by the SRB Programme (SRBP) jointly developed by the Governments of both countries. The construction of a multi-purpose dam is a key objective of the SRBP. The dam is intended to supply water for ⁓180 MW hydropower plant, ⁓86000 dwellers, ⁓3000 ha of irrigation schemes in each country, and control floods in the lower part of the basin. WEF-Tools has assessed the SRBP expected outcomes by applying an approach that starts from conceptual mapping of the SRB nexus system and progresses to the development of quantitative tools such as System Dynamics Models (SDMs), and identification of suitable indicators for the assessment of different scenarios, management strategies, subsequently providing decision-makers with feasible development pathways. Ultimately, this work will provide a structured knowledge base, simulation tool, dashboard, and a composite nexus index co-developed, tested, validated, and refined through interactive collaboration with stakeholders and local experts. Thus, it is intended that the toolkit supports the development of short-, medium- and long-term strategies for sustainable integrated resource management and policy development. Outcomes will provide a means for government ministries, NGOs, and development agencies to assess progress towards relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDGs 2, 6, and 7.

 

Keywords: Water-Energy-Food Nexus, multi-purpose reservoir, decision making, System Dynamics Model, SDGs, Songwe River Basin

 

 

How to cite: Masia, S., Kiala, Z., Sušnik, J., Mabhaudhi, T., and Jewitt, G.:  Water-Energy-Food Nexus assessment of the intended outcomes of the Songwe River Basin Programme in Malawi and Tanzania, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1193, 2021.

EGU21-13855 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Hydro-Economics Tradeoff Surfaces to Guide Unit Commitment in Production Cost Models

Quentin Ploussard, Nathalie Voisin, Thomas Veselka, and Konstantinos Oikonomou

This paper aims to assess the discrepancy in hydropower representation between conventional PCMs and hydro scheduling tools and propose a new method to account for hydrological and environmental aspects in PCMs. To achieve this, three scenarios are simulated. The first scenario simulates hydropower operations using a conventional PCM. The second scenario uses an iterative method to integrate into a PCM the hydropower operations modeled by a hydro scheduling tool. The third scenario explores a hybrid alternative in which hydropower operations are simulated based on dynamic hydropower parameters calculated from detailed environmental constraints. These dynamic hydropower parameters are calculated via “surfaces”, or bivariate functions, generated in advance by the hydro scheduling tool used in scenario 2 under numerous hydrological conditions.

How to cite: Ploussard, Q., Voisin, N., Veselka, T., and Oikonomou, K.: Hydro-Economics Tradeoff Surfaces to Guide Unit Commitment in Production Cost Models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13855, 2021.

EGU21-1043 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Integrated system dynamics modelling of the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus in Latvia: exploring the impact of policy measures in a nexus-wide context

Janez Susnik, Sara Masia, Daina Indriksone, Ingrida Bremere, Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, and Floor Brouwer

The water-energy-food-land-climate nexus sectors interact in a complex system operating on many scales. Better understanding this system, and its response to change (e.g. climate change, policy implementation) is urgently required, yet little progress has been made on integrating real policy objectives into nexus models to assess potential nexus-wide impacts of policy decisions. Given current concerns on resource scarcity, and on the growing appreciation of how connected the sectors are, under-standing how the implementation of policy objectives in one area will impact (1) other nexus sectors and (2) potential future system behaviour, is becoming vitally important. Despite this, little progress has been towards such an understanding. In this work, a fully integrated system dynamics model of the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus in Latvia is presented. The model couples all the nexus sectors in a feedback driven modelling framework. Latvia is represented in five distinct yet inter-acting regions, allowing finer scale interrogation of results and policy implications. In addition, real Latvian policies are integrated within various nexus sectors (e.g. a policy to improve crop yields or to expand agricultural lands at the expense of other land use types). Due to the integrated nature of the model, executing any policy will not only have an impact within the policy sector (e.g. water), but the nexus-wide impacts can also be determined (e.g. on GHG emissions). Results show that due to the inter-connectedness, impacts range far more widely than may be anticipated. For example, implementing policies to achieve goals related to cereal land coverage in Latvia prevents the attainment of policy goals relating to emissions reductions. As such, synergies can be identified and harnessed, while trade-offs can be avoided. Policy can then be (re-)designed to maximise nexus-wide benefits. This work is carried out in the framework of the H2020 project SIM4NEXUS, which will deliver 10 more such models exploring the policy impacts on the nexus at different scales (sub-national to European). As such, the work starts to fill a crucial academic and applied knowledge gap: how policies designed for a single sector have impacts that ripple throughout the entire nexus. As such, guidelines for more intelligent policy design can start to be formulated, something that is lacking in current nexus research.

How to cite: Susnik, J., Masia, S., Indriksone, D., Bremere, I., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, L., and Brouwer, F.: Integrated system dynamics modelling of the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus in Latvia: exploring the impact of policy measures in a nexus-wide context, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1043, 2021.

In the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – Targets - Indicators 2016-2030, the objective of this paper is to address the limitations of SDG 6 “Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all”, designing a model that could better approach especially target 6.4 Water use and scarcity, and among its indicators 6.4.1 Change in water use efficiency over time, and 6.4.2 “Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources”, considering as well the importance of the close linkages to target 6.5 Water resources management and indicator 6.5.1 Degree of integrated water resources management implementation (0-100).

 

Data on water resources availability and demand is a key indicator that should be approached at subnational or at main basins levels and at local level, since at a global scale, this information is not known for most local and rural communities and towns, which are vulnerable and lack of services of drinking water and irrigation for food security.[1]

 

In relation to indicator 6.4.2 (Level of water stress), it implies monitoring water resources assessment and availability, fundamental to life, health, food security, energy, the environment, and human well-being. However there are distortions of the indicator from national to local levels that may have different values, as i) high differences in the values of water stress between basins, and ii) towns suffer from water stress at different degrees.

 

As in the case of Ecuador in South America, with 6.24% of water stress (2017), a very low value that indicates that “water does not represent a particular challenge or limiting factor for economic development and sustainability”[2], which does not reflect the actual situation of cities and towns representing an estimate of 50% (or an estimate of 8.5 million inhabitants) of the country´s population affected by water scarcity. Neither the different hydric potentials of the country[3], between the Pacific Basin with 5200 m3/year/inhab and the Amazon Basin with 82900 m3/year/inhab.

 

To control these distortions on the indicator, fundamental for sustainable development, the model approaches hydrological - hydrometric data from national or regional level to cities and towns levels, that would help countries with fundamental data translated in the incorporation of a complementary indicator, as the percentage of the population, whose water sources are monitored by means of adequate measuring methods, providing information on surface water and ground water regimes that influence water availability.

  

The model contributes to assure the information on actual water availability to control water stress at all levels, from local to subnational or basin, and to national and regional levels.


[1] Castanier, H. (2020). Assessment of Local Water Resources for Sustainable Development Goals. EGU General Assembly 2020. doi: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-899.

 

[2] Biancalani, R., Frenken, K. (2016). Monitoring of SDG target 6.4. FAO.

 

[3] Total renewable freshwater resources – TRWR, as the long-term average annual flow of rivers and recharge of groundwater measured as a volumetric unit.

 

How to cite: Castanier, H.: Monitoring water availability by a multi level model to address water scarcity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6994, 2021.

EGU21-2324 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Decarbonising future heating systems: trade-offs between water use and CO2 emissions

Chelsea Kaandorp, Nick van de Giesen, and Edo Abraham

Sustainable energy systems can only be achieved when reducing both carbon emissions and water use for energy generation. Water-energy nexus studies are therefore crucial for supporting environmental policy oriented towards the mobilisation of resources in an optimally integrated way. Decarbonizing heating infrastructures is an important part of achieving low-carbon energy systems because they globally account for 50% of the final energy consumption and 40% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our study, we quantitatively assess the changing water usage of the energy sector due to the integration of low carbon heating infrastructures. Multiple future energy mix scenarios were assessed  by building a multi-scale energy and water use model that quantifies the direct and virtual water footprint of space heating and hot water use in households, services and industry. In this presentation we show an analysis on the water use of heating pathways towards the year 2050 for the Netherlands and its capital, the city of Amsterdam. Additionally, we present preliminary results from our research about the trade-offs between carbon emission reductions, insulation measures and energy reliability in neighbourhoods in Amsterdam.

How to cite: Kaandorp, C., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Decarbonising future heating systems: trade-offs between water use and CO2 emissions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2324, 2021.

EGU21-15434 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Advancing the Water Footprint into an instrument to support achieving the SDGs

Elsa Semmling, Markus Berger, Jazmin Campos, Mauro Carolli, Iana Dantas, Ervin Kosatica, Annika Kramer, Natalia Mikosch, Hamideh Nouri, Anna Schlattmann, Falk Schmidt, and Anna Schomberg

The water footprint has developed into a widely-used concept to examine water use and resulting local impacts caused during agricultural and industrial production. Building on recent advancements in the water footprint concept, it can be an effective steering instrument to support, inter alia, achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) - SDG 6 in particular. Within the research program “Water as a Global Resource” (GRoW), an initiative of the Federal Ministry for Education and Research, a number of research projects currently apply and enhance the water footprint concept in order to identify areas where water is being used inefficiently and implement practical optimization measures. We aim to raise awareness on the potential of the water footprint concept to inform decision-making in the public and private sectors towards improved water management and achieving the SDGs. In particular, we show how modern water footprint methods and tools developed in GRoW can inform policy planning towards more sustainable use of water resources at various levels. They can also support producers in determining their indirect water use and associated impacts in supply chains, in addition to their (often comparably low) direct water use at production sites. Finally, we show how the water footprint can raise awareness and inform consumers about the hidden water use and resulting impacts of daily products and services.

How to cite: Semmling, E., Berger, M., Campos, J., Carolli, M., Dantas, I., Kosatica, E., Kramer, A., Mikosch, N., Nouri, H., Schlattmann, A., Schmidt, F., and Schomberg, A.: Advancing the Water Footprint into an instrument to support achieving the SDGs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15434, 2021.

EGU21-6725 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4 | Highlight

Water scarcity footprint of renewable electricity generation in the context of regional impacts from mining activities

Anna Schomberg, Martina Flörke, and Stefan Bringezu

Renewable energies play a key role in avoiding carbon dioxide emissions from fossil electricity generation. However, support for certain renewable energy technologies focused only on greenhouse gas reduction can reinforce other environmental impacts and thus shift the problems. The authors therefore compare three forms of renewable electricity generation, namely concentrated solar power, run-of-river hydropower and sugarcane bagasse burning, to classical electricity generation from hard coal combustion with respect to their contribution to regional water scarcity. In a comparative life cycle impact assessment the quantitative and qualitative demand for water is assessed in a comprehensive conceptual framework against the background of regional water availability. A spatially explicit analysis reveals hotspots of water use along the case studies’ supply chains with a strong focus on mining activities. For this purpose, the global supply chains of nine mineral resources (aluminium, clay, coal, copper, gypsum, iron, lime, lithium and phosphate) were regionalised at mine site level in advance, so that contributions to environmental impacts can be assigned to single mine clusters. Next to the locations of the case studies itself, about 40 % of all contributions are associated with mining activities. Hard coal mining in Russian and Chinese mines as well as in South Africa as part of the supply chains of all case studies makes up the largest share of this. Further contributions are from mining of iron ore in Australian mines and copper extraction in Chinese, North American and Peruvian mines. However, up to 65 % of the life cycle impacts cannot be spatially analysed due to limited data availability. These findings indicate that a detailed investigation of mining supply chains is necessary to compare power generation technologies in a meaningful way. Results also show that sugarcane bagasse burning, if used as by-product and not as waste, is responsible for the largest contributions to all indicators, suggesting that targeted use of biomass for electricity generation is not is not very effective in reducing global environmental impacts, such as contribution to water scarcity.

How to cite: Schomberg, A., Flörke, M., and Bringezu, S.: Water scarcity footprint of renewable electricity generation in the context of regional impacts from mining activities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6725, 2021.

EGU21-100 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Changes in the water footprint of urban green spaces over time

Hamideh Nouri, Sattar Chavoshi Borujeni, Pamela Nagler, Armando Barreto Munoz, Kamel Didan, and Arjen Hoekstra

The concept of a sustainable green city based on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)–Goal 11 - sustainable cities and communities – may not be narrowed down to solely intensifying urban green spaces. Sustainability could include urban water management to alleviate possible conflict among “water‐saving” and “greening cities” strategies. Water consumption by urban greenery has a major role in urban water management, particularly in water-scarce regions where green covers are most affected by drought and aridity. More green and blue water resources are required to maintain and expand urban green spaces. Quantifying the water footprint of urban greenery helps to balance greening cities while water saving from both green and blue water resources. We employed remote sensing and artificial intelligence techniques to assess the water consumption and water footprint of a 780‐ha public green space, the Adelaide Parklands in Australia. We estimated the green and blue water footprint of this green space (containing 29 parks) during 2010-2018 on a monthly basis. Our results showed that the mean total water footprint of the Adelaide Parklands was about 7.75 gigaliter per annum over 2010-2018; it varied from 7.19 gigaliter/year in 2018 to 8.45 gigaliter/year in 2012. The blue water footprint was consistently higher than the green water footprint even in wet time of the year. We suggest implementing sponge city and water sensitive urban design (WSUD) techniques to help greening cities while reducing the water footprint of urban green spaces. These approaches have the potential to lessen the pressure on blue water resources and optimise the consumption of green water resources.

How to cite: Nouri, H., Chavoshi Borujeni, S., Nagler, P., Barreto Munoz, A., Didan, K., and Hoekstra, A.: Changes in the water footprint of urban green spaces over time, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-100, 2021.

EGU21-10096 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Combination of indicators for increasing irrigation sustainability. Definition of a Hydrosustainable Index.

Alejandro Galindo, Mireia Corell, María Jose Martín-Palomo, Teresa Carrillo, Ignacio Girón, Luís Andreu, Ana Centeno, David Pérez-López, and Alfonso Moriana

The scarcity of natural resources around the world has obligated to consider the concept of sustainability in all human activities. Agriculture is not an exception, it is the activity where sustainability is more important, mainly in irrigated orchards. Sustainable water uses are commonly associated with a low water footprint. Water footprint works conclude that the main differences are in the water management at the orchard level. The olive orchard is located at an arid, water scarce location where irrigation water needs are very high and therefore the water footprint. However, an efficient, sustainable water use could be performed in these situations. The aim of this work is the design of an index (Hydrosustainable index, HydroSOS) to estimate the olive grower’s effort at orchard level for improving the sustainability of irrigated olive groves. HydroSOS marks a wide range of field activities link to irrigation management. All these are grouped into hydraulic and agronomic components. Each component has different levels and marks according to its relation to the increase in water sustainability. Irrigation scheduling components are the most valued in the index, though others such as water use efficiency, irrigation system, or soil management are also included.  Four different levels are considered in relation to the final mark. HydroSOS is designed as a dynamic index to improve the objectivity in the evaluation of grower’s effort in irrigation optimization. Two cases of study are presented in two superhigh density olive orchards. Although both orchards are very similar in applied water and climatic conditions, HydroSOS index separated in two very different classifications.

How to cite: Galindo, A., Corell, M., Martín-Palomo, M. J., Carrillo, T., Girón, I., Andreu, L., Centeno, A., Pérez-López, D., and Moriana, A.: Combination of indicators for increasing irrigation sustainability. Definition of a Hydrosustainable Index., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10096, 2021.

EGU21-1777 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4 | Highlight

Improved water footprint of oil palm products using eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration

Joris Herz, Ana Meijide, Christian Stiegler, Bunyod Holmatov, Alexander Knohl, and Hamideh Nouri

The global population growth and changes in human lifestyle and consumption patterns put immense pressure on the limited freshwater resources in the world. Aiming at sustainable use and equitable allocation of the water resources, it becomes crucial to know the water appropriation for the production of different commodities and consumer goods. These days, oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) is one of the highest-demanded crops around the globe since the oil of its fruits and kernel is widely used as biofuel and major ingredients in food and cosmetic industries. Given this massive demand, the areas under oil palm cultivation in the tropics have continuously been expanding in the last decades, particularly in Indonesia. With the oil palm boom, not only biodiversity loss, and carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation have been increasing, but also the consumptions of blue and green water resources are of concern. 

In this ongoing research, the concept of water footprint (WF) is employed to quantify the green and blue water use of oil palm production in the Bajubang district, Batanghari regency, Jambi province, Sumatra, Indonesia. This is one of the first studies that uses field-measured data of evapotranspiration (ET) from oil palm plantations in different growth stages over seven years for the purpose of WF assessment, compared to the available literature where ET was estimated using modelling approaches. The multi-year measurements were conducted using the eddy covariance technique, which continuously measures water vapor (H2O) fluxes at the ecosystem level over the plantation. Based on these measurements, specifically, the WF assessment is performed on a product basis during the plantation life cycle, per area and time unit, for the oil palm fruit yield and oil palm derived products (palm oil, palm-oil biodiesel). Besides the crop water consumption at the plantation (i.e. ET) as the core element, other water consumptions in the products’ processing chain are included in the WF assessment. Preliminary results indicate a WF of 2440 m3 t-1 for palm oil and 65 m3 GJ-1 for palm-oil biodiesel. This is about 50% lower than the global average estimates. Local WF account of oil palm products has a critical contribution to product transparency while being useful for comparative purposes. Contrasting the WFs of products serving the same function (e.g., palm oil biodiesel, soybean biodiesel) is of essential importance, aiming at conscious product choices in a world of freshwater scarcity.

Keywords: water footprint, oil palm, palm oil, Indonesia, eddy covariance, evapotranspiration

How to cite: Herz, J., Meijide, A., Stiegler, C., Holmatov, B., Knohl, A., and Nouri, H.: Improved water footprint of oil palm products using eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1777, 2021.

EGU21-98 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Green Water Appropriation of the Cropland Ecosystem in China

Weijing Ma, Feili Wei, Jianpeng Zhang, Daniel Karthe, and Christian Opp

Despite the awareness that green water is the main source of water to produce food, studies on green water use in cropland ecosystems are still rather limited, and almost no research has so far explored its driving factors. In this study, with the help of CropWat 8.0, the green water footprint (GWF) of main crops in China was estimated for the period from 1979 to 2016. On this basis, a novel concept, i.e., green water appropriation rate (GWar) was introduced to reveal the relationship between GWF and precipitation. Then, for the first time, the center of gravity trajectory and the driving factors of the GWar were further investigated. The results show that the total GWF in China has continuously increased from 312,915 million m3 in 1979 to 397,207 million m3 in 2016, an increase of 27%. The provinces with the largest increases were Inner Mongolia (223%), Xinjiang (127%), and Ningxia (123%). Meanwhile, the GWFs of 11 provinces have decreased, and 9 of them were municipalities or coastal areas. The GWar first rose from 30% in 1979 to 38% in 2009 in China, and then dropped to 30% in 2016. Generally, the GWar in the eastern and central provinces was greater than that in the western provinces. The center of gravity of the GWar has always been in Henan Province, but it has moved westward from Kaifeng City in 1979 to Sanmenxia City in 2016 and may further move to Shanxi Province soon. The total power of agricultural machinery and the effective irrigation rate had positive effects on the GWar, while the agricultural GDP was negatively correlated with the GWar. It is expected that the results will explicitly provide a scientific basis for the development of water-appropriate agriculture and the full utilization of rainwater.

How to cite: Ma, W., Wei, F., Zhang, J., Karthe, D., and Opp, C.: Green Water Appropriation of the Cropland Ecosystem in China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-98, 2021.

EGU21-11026 | vPICO presentations | HS5.3.4

Water Productivity; a Sustainable Pathway to Agricultural Extensification and Climate Adaptation?

Amali A. Amali, Muhammad Khalifa, and Lars Ribbe

Water Productivity (WP), a pointer to crop performance vis-à-vis consumptive water use, has fevered debates around agricultural water use, away from scheme-based efficiency to field-scale productive value of water, that can be optimised in localities of increasing absolute and relative scarcity. Research on WP sprung from such debates to become a growth industry, that measures irrigation inefficiencies, poised towards developing economies and “low” value uses of water, to justify its reallocation across sectors, sometimes away from agriculture. While water allocation decisions increasingly prioritise sectoral productivity of freshwater resources, burgeoning food security measures to water scarcity adaptation is shifting management decisions from the purview of scheme managers to individual farming units, underscoring the need to parallel WP initiatives with the resilience of local livelihoods. In this study, we analyse the potential contribution of WP as an agricultural extensification mechanism for a water-scarce irrigated region. The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), is used to estimate evapotranspiration as a proxy for irrigated water consumption. An automated derivative, the pySEBAL model, is used to compute crop biomass combined with satellite-based evapotranspiration to estimate WP across 1680 heterogeneous groundwater irrigated fields in the eastern Azraq basin of Jordan. WP gap was hereafter estimated as the difference between the current field WP, to a selected productivity range, attainable within infrastructural and agroclimatic limits. By investigating the possibility of closing WP gaps, we show that a careful selection of WP thresholds to benchmark localised irrigated water consumption offers the potential to reduce seasonal irrigation water use within a range of 18 to 29% of the current consumption, without adversely affecting crop yield and related livelihoods. Such range (5 – 9 MCM[†]) for a water-scarce Azraq basin, offers substantial relief to groundwater resources, related ecosystems, and long-term catchment sustainability. We additionally demonstrate that this provides a window for agricultural extensification by leveraging farm management practices across irrigated fields. We finally propose entrepreneurial and capacity building opportunities from analysing dynamics in farmers' individual water use behaviour. WP, as a useful indicator for water reallocation under water-scarce conditions, would need to consider equitable utilisation of water resources and the resilience of local livelihoods.


[†] Million Cubic Meters

How to cite: Amali, A. A., Khalifa, M., and Ribbe, L.: Water Productivity; a Sustainable Pathway to Agricultural Extensification and Climate Adaptation?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11026, 2021.

HS5.4.1 – Water resources policy and management: digital water and interconnected urban infrastructure

EGU21-3932 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1 | Highlight

Resource Nexus Methodological Framework: Making the Nexus Operational

Chrysi Laspidou, Dimitrios Kofinas, and Eunice Pereira Ramos

The well-established Water Energy Food Nexus, meaning the investigation of the three subsystems as a whole complex of interlinkages and trade-offs has been a revolutionary step towards holistic system thinking. More Nexuses have occurred and have been studied through the last decades, expanding the central WEF triplet. Sim4Nexus has acknowledged the importance of expanding the triplet to a quintet, also including the land uses and the climate change as core components, towards a holistic analysis that targets to climate change mitigation and adaptation actions and resource efficiency. In this work, we present the methodological framework developed and tested on multiple case studies of various particularities and scales. We present an assessment workflow of numerous steps and iterations that includes, among others, the conceptual and bio-physical modelling of the quintet synergies and trade-offs, the exploitation of existing databases and thematic models, the stakeholder mapping and engagement, the policy analysis, the formulation of narratives, the pre-nexus assessment, the workshops, the System Dynamic Modeling, the Science-Policy interface, and the Serious Gaming. The aim of this work is to transfer the experience and lessons learnt of a demanding, trans-disciplinary and intersectoral work and provide a roadmap for future Nexus—not necessarily the specific quintet—analysis efforts.

How to cite: Laspidou, C., Kofinas, D., and Ramos, E. P.: Resource Nexus Methodological Framework: Making the Nexus Operational, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3932, 2021.

EGU21-2062 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1 | Highlight

Digitalisation and citizen participation - opportunities for integrated management of urban water infrastructure

Martin Oberascher, Wolfgang Rauch, and Robert Sitzenfrei

In the field of urban water infrastructure (UWI), a system-wide management, that interacts with other infrastructure areas, is gaining importance. Additionally, new technologies based on the Internet of Things (IoT) concept, as part of smart city development, are rapidly emerging. This allows for new possibilities in the management of UWI. However, in literature, there is a lack of information about usable communication technology making it challenging to reproduce existing research.

To contribute to this ongoing development, the results of a detailed literature review are presented focusing on (smart) applications related to network-based UWI. Therefore, existing, and new applications of urban drainage and water distribution - including nature-based solutions - are analysed to provide a comprehensive analysis over required spatial and temporal resolution of measurement and control data for a cross-system view. To close the knowledge gap between UWI applications and usable (IoT) communication technology, a detailed framework is presented to identify suitable communication technologies based on spatial and temporal requirements for smart UWI operation. This framework can be used by researchers and stakeholders to choose a suitable communication technology based on their intended UWI applications, or vice versa, to indicate UWI applications, which are possible with an existing communication network.

The intersections with basic conditions of data communication (e.g., transmission range, data rate, reliability) reveal, that small-scale system parts (e.g., IoT-based micro storages, nature-based solutions) can be integrated into an overall controlled system by using state-of-the-art IoT technology in combination with citizen participation. However, monitoring and controlling networks in the field of UWI are based on battery-powered measurement devices due to underground and remote installation sites, and requires investment costs, too. Consequently, a balance between measurement equipment and effectiveness of the implemented applications is required to achieve economic and ecological sustainability

How to cite: Oberascher, M., Rauch, W., and Sitzenfrei, R.: Digitalisation and citizen participation - opportunities for integrated management of urban water infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2062, 2021.

EGU21-12540 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1 | Highlight

How is digital transformation impacting the water utility sector? - Insights from a worldwide online utility survey

Ivo Daniel, Newsha Ajami, Andrea Castelletti, Dragan Savic, Rodney Stewart, Marie Becker, and Andrea Cominola

Water utilities across the globe are facing numerous challenges to their operations and management posed by ageing infrastructure, urbanization, and climate change. Specific challenges include severe floods and droughts, changing urban water demands, costs related to the maintenance of infrastructure systems, and increasingly critical conditions for wastewater overflow in combined sewer systems. Recent developments of digital technologies offer opportunities to address these challenges. Smart monitoring and automatic control, advanced analytics, informed demand management, and digital customer engagement open new paths to more efficient water use, better understanding of resource availability and quality, or faster detection of failures and anomalies. Although many utilities have started the process of digital transformation, few of them are on the same track. The variety of possible approaches to digitalisation raises the following questions: How is digital transformation impacting the water utility sector? What are the drivers and challenges for such transformation? What are the key enabling technologies?

To address these questions, the online “Smart Water Survey” (http://smartwatersurvey.com) was designed to analyse common priorities, best practices and technologies, and challenges entailed by the digital transformation process in the water utility sector. The survey maps out a water utility’s operating network and company structure as divided into five different subsections: (1) water supply & drinking water treatment, (2) water distribution network & operating systems, (3) wastewater & rainwater management, (4) customers & demand management, and (5) data warehouse & IT systems. For each subsection, different aspects of the digital transformation are investigated. Besides providing a general overview on the ongoing digitalisation trends and its determinants, the answers obtained from over 60 utilities worldwide allow assessing the digital maturity of water utilities and deriving recommendations on future digital developments. Independent sections and targeted questions in the survey are organized in a way to overcome the potential information bias due to the utility’s perception of digitalisation and subjective evaluation of its importance.

While the survey will remain open for future updates, the authors have chosen to report the current results available at the end of 2020. The results indicate that most of the participating utilities have already taken on digitalisation and are moving forward by adopting new digital technologies, regardless of their geographic origin, company age, and size. However, differences are apparent among the five subsections mentioned above. For subsection (2), in more than 50% of the cases the digital technology in question was already implemented, while for (4) this number was roughly 30%. Additionally, in 50% of the cases in (4) technology was either being implemented or planned in the near future and not considered in 20% of the cases. As the driving elements for their transition, utilities reported economic factors as most influential across all subsections with a ratio of 66%. Governmental influence and ecologic factors had a comparably smaller influence with a ratio 26% and 8%, respectively.

How to cite: Daniel, I., Ajami, N., Castelletti, A., Savic, D., Stewart, R., Becker, M., and Cominola, A.: How is digital transformation impacting the water utility sector? - Insights from a worldwide online utility survey, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12540, 2021.

EGU21-14081 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Comparing digitalization of urban water processes and services in Singapore and Bengaluru

Chandan Banerjee, Chitresh Saraswat, and Anik Bhaduri

Digitalization is claimed to revolutionize water utilities in many urban areas across the world, contributing to urban water security.  It involves the use of Information Technology, Data Analysis and Electronic Monitoring in urban water governance with significant improvements in quality water services and customer satisfaction. However, a holistic success story where digitalization of each and every urban water process and service, is found only in a handful of cities. The challenge in most cases is not the availability of an appropriate digital technology but the implementation of the technology. In our study, we try to find the constraints faced in the implementation processes by assessing the required enabling conditions of digitalization as well as the outcomes. Two cities, Singapore and Bengaluru as case studies were selected to compare the implementation process of Smart Water Meters, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Flood Early Warning. Singapore is a developed city in terms of water with an excellent water management system that provides remarkable water-related services. On the other hand, Bengaluru, a rapidly growing city in India and known for its information technology and digital industry, has embarked on the path towards digitalization in water. The comparison of the implementation of these three technologies provides interesting insights that we have extended to generalized inferences about the implementation of digitalization in urban water. We have found that the enabling conditions such as the existence of enabling technologies, management capacity and conducive policy framework are crucial for implementation. Interestingly, outlining the target problems that digitalization is expected to address is equally important for achieving favourable outcomes. The inferences developed in this study will help the adoption of digital technology by urban water utilities, especially in the developing world and in turn strengthen water security.

How to cite: Banerjee, C., Saraswat, C., and Bhaduri, A.: Comparing digitalization of urban water processes and services in Singapore and Bengaluru, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14081, 2021.

EGU21-15651 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Rule-based modelling for adaptive complex infrastructure planning

Tohid Erfani and Julien J. Harou

Dealing with uncertainty in infrastructure planning is a challenge. Planning decisions need to be made in face of unknown future condition, and, in the meantime, it is essential that they are flexible enough to be adapted as new information unfolds. This indeed is important for multi-sector decision making where the complexity of the interconnected system and the uncertainty thereof hinders the modelling and analysis. Multistage stochastic optimisation provides a mechanism to incorporate these two attributes into planning decisions. However, its expensive computation as well as the appropriateness of its sequential decisions beyond the first few stages reduce its implementability. We introduce `Decision Rule' as a way to approximate the multistage problem, where the decisions at each stage are functions of the system complexity and the future uncertainty. We introduce a family of linear, polynomial, conditional if-then based rules and show how they approximate the multistage stochastic problem. We investigate their implications for urban water demand and supply network planning problem. Further we discuss some state-of-the-art and emerging tools for increasing the accuracy of the rules.

How to cite: Erfani, T. and Harou, J. J.: Rule-based modelling for adaptive complex infrastructure planning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15651, 2021.

EGU21-9378 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Modeling Water Distribution Systems with Graph Neural Networks

Alexander Garzón, Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Zoran Kapelan, and Riccardo Taormina

Water management has recently explored data-driven models to improve the adaptability of Water Distribution Systems (WDS) and strengthen decision making under uncertain conditions. The focus on these tools is motivated by the increasing availability of information and their proven performance in other fields. Modeling WDS with these techniques has been demonstrated to be useful; however, the traditional machine learning tools do not account for the graph structure present in the WDS. Considering this essential information offers the possibility to increase performance and to help the learning process. In this work, we introduce Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for modeling WDS. GNNs are processing architectures to perform neural network tasks for data related to a graph. We first present the definitions and interpretations for using this framework in water networks. Then we compare the GNN approach against standard neural networks to predict an overall resilience metric in a benchmark system. The benefits of including the network structure in the learning process by the GNN are shown in the analysis of the obtained results.

How to cite: Garzón, A., Bentivoglio, R., Isufi, E., Kapelan, Z., and Taormina, R.: Modeling Water Distribution Systems with Graph Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9378, 2021.

EGU21-13835 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Positioning grids at critical locations for the design of water distribution network

Hyojeong Lee, Hyungsik Shin, and Jeryang Park

 A water distribution network (WDN) is a critical and life-line infrastructure that transports and distributes water, an essential resource for human life, to local communities. A WDN is often modeled as a two-dimensional complex network consisting of vertices (nodes) and pipes (edges), and it has both characteristics of lattice-like and tree-like structures. With these characteristics, Son et al. (2021) proposed an approach to identify an optimal grid ratio in terms of functionality - efficiency and vulnerability - of a WDN using the lattice to tree network model (LTNM). Their result showed that the grid ratio of a real WDN is often significantly lower than the optimal value, which means that the function of the WDN can be improved by increasing the grid ratio. However, as the range of functions varies depending on where grids are located at a fixed grid ratio, simply adding pipes without considering their location does not incur a linear increase in system function. Therefore, it is important to identify the critical locations to add pipes where the functions of the system are most improved. In addition, it is necessary to determine if adding pipes is possible or not since pipe installation is not allowed for some places. In this study, we (1) identify possible spots where pipes can be added, (2) rank the identified spots where pipes are added regarding the extent of increments of function, and (3) propose an optimal (or a suboptimal) design with an optimally increased with grid ratio by adding pipes to the ranked locations in order. The results indicate that, the performance of WDNs which originally had low grid ratios are improved by adding pipes at reliable spots. The proposed approach illustrates how the structure and function of existing WDNs can be developed by modifying the proportion of grids.

 

Acknowledgments: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (NRF-2019R1C1C1008017).

How to cite: Lee, H., Shin, H., and Park, J.: Positioning grids at critical locations for the design of water distribution network, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13835, 2021.

EGU21-14741 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Improving water age estimation in a drinking water distribution network by field study and digital modeling

Jon Kristian Rakstang, Michael B. Waak, Marius M. Rokstad, and Cynthia Hallé

Municipal drinking water distribution networks are complex and dynamic systems often spanning many hundreds of kilometers and serving thousands of consumers. Degradation of water quality within a distribution network can be associated to water age (i.e., time elapsed after treatment). Norwegian distribution networks often consist of an intricate combination of pressure zones, in which the transport path(s) between source and consumer is not easily ascertained. Water age is therefore poorly understood in many Norwegian distribution networks. In this study, simulations obtained from a water network model were used to estimate water age in a Norwegian municipal distribution network. A full-scale tracer study using sodium chloride salt was conducted to assess simulation accuracy. Water conductivity provided empirical estimates of salt arrival time at five monitoring stations. These estimates were consistently higher than simulated peak arrival times. Nevertheless, empirical and simulated water age correlated well, indicating that additional network model calibration will improve accuracy. Subsequently, simulated mean water age also correlated strongly with heterotrophic plate count (HPC) monitoring data from the distribution network (Pearson’s R= 0.78, P= 0.00046), indicating biomass accumulation during distribution—perhaps due to bacterial growth or biofilm interactions—and illustrating the importance of water age for water quality. This study demonstrates that Norwegian network models can be calibrated with simple and cost-effective salt tracer studies to improve water age estimates. Improved water age estimation will increase our understanding of water quality dynamics in distribution networks. This can, through digital tools, be used to monitor and control water age, and its impact on biogrowth in the network.

How to cite: Rakstang, J. K., B. Waak, M., M. Rokstad, M., and Hallé, C.: Improving water age estimation in a drinking water distribution network by field study and digital modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14741, 2021.

EGU21-15635 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Spending Less Than 100$ on Real-Time Sewer Flow Measurements

Robert Meier, Franz Tscheikner-Gratl, and Christos Makropoulos

As more and more computational power becomes available at increasingly affordable prices, the last years have seen a veritable explosion in the number of sensors and interconnected devices. This evolution is well known and often referred to as the 4th industrial revolution, or the IoT. The water sector, albeit often conservative in adopting new technologies, will profit from this continued digitalisation in various ways.

In this work we focus on the vision of covering entire sewer systems by tightly knit sensor networks which can process the generated amount of data simultaneously. Given the large number of sensors required, the only possibility to implement such a network is keeping costs as low as possible for the individual devices or use already existing sensors in multiple ways (e.g., traffic cameras helping in flood detection).

Using hardware of the Raspberry Pi ecosystem, currently retailing at less than 100$, we collected continuous video footage of an artificial open channel in a laboratory setting and used a deep neural network to extract the water level and surface velocity. The measurement accuracy of the prediction algorithm was then compared to conventional flow sensors to assess the practicality of this approach. Preliminary results in a laboratory setting indicate a sufficient prediction accuracy of the water level for engineering uses but further work is needed to verify this in a long-term field study.

After this initial stage, deploying the sensor in a real-world setting as part of the B-WaterSmart project is planned. Apart from verifying the results under real conditions, we will then be able to assess the long-term behaviour of this approach. This includes an evaluation of the maintenance effort. As the sensor is not in direct contact with the sewage, the typical need for frequent cleaning should be greatly reduced, which in turn is expected to further lower the costs.

We argue that if such a cheap sensor can ultimately be established as a viable alternative to more conventional flow sensors, the vision of sewer networks covered entirely by sensors, could become more attainable in practice.

How to cite: Meier, R., Tscheikner-Gratl, F., and Makropoulos, C.: Spending Less Than 100$ on Real-Time Sewer Flow Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15635, 2021.

EGU21-16386 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1 | Highlight

A network of low-cost temperature sensors for real-time monitoring of combined sewer overflow

Mathias Riechel, Oriol Gutierrez, Silvia Busquets, Neus Amela, Valentina Dimova, Michel Gunkel, Nicolas Caradot, and Pascale Rouault

The H2020 innovation project digital-water.city (DWC) aims at boosting the integrated management of water systems in five major European cities – Berlin, Copenhagen, Milan, Paris and Sofia – by leveraging the potential of data and digital technologies. The goal is to quantify the benefits of a panel of 15 innovative digital solutions and achieve their long-term uptake and successful integration in the existing digital systems and governance processes. One of these promising technologies is a new generation of sensors for measuring combined sewer overflow occurrence, developed by ICRA and IoTsens.

Recent EU regulations have correctly identified CSOs as an important source of contamination and promote appropriate monitoring of all CSO structures in order to control and avoid the detrimental effects on receiving waters. Traditionally there has been a lack of reliable data on the occurrence of CSOs, with the main limitations being: i) the high number of CSO structures per municipality or catchment and ii) the high cost of the flow-monitoring equipment available on the market to measure CSO events. These two factors and the technical constraints of accessing and installing monitoring equipment in some CSO structures have delayed the implementation of extensive monitoring of CSOs. As a result, utilities lack information about the behaviour of the network and potential impacts on the local water bodies.

The new sensor technology developed by ICRA and IoTsens provides a simple yet robust method for CSO detection based on the deployment of a network of innovative low-cost temperature sensors. The technology reduces CAPEX and OPEX for CSO monitoring, compared to classical flow or water level measurements, and allows utilities to monitor their network extensively. The sensors are installed at the overflows crest and measure air temperature during dry-weather conditions and water temperature when the overflow crest is submerged in case of a CSO event. A CSO event and its duration can be detected by a shift in observed temperature, thanks to the temperature difference between the air and the water phase. Artificial intelligence algorithms further help to convert the continuous measurements into binary information on CSO occurrence. The sensors can quantify the CSO occurrence and duration and remotely provide real-time overflow information through LoRaWAN/2G communication protocols.

The solution is being deployed since October 2020 in the cities of Sofia, Bulgaria, and Berlin, Germany, with 10 offline sensors installed in each city to improve knowledge on CSO emissions. Further 36 (Sofia) and 9 (Berlin) online sensors will follow this winter. Besides its main goal of improving knowledge on CSO emissions, data in Sofia will also be used to identify suspected dry-weather overflows due to blockages. In Berlin, data will be used to improve the accuracy of an existing hydrodynamic sewer model for resilience analysis, flood forecasting and efficient investment in stormwater management measures. First results show a good detection accuracy of CSO events with the offline version of the technology. As measurements are ongoing and further sensors will be added, an enhanced set of results will be presented at the conference.

Visit us: https://www.digital-water.city/ 

Follow us: Twitter (@digitalwater_eu); LinkedIn (digital-water.city)

How to cite: Riechel, M., Gutierrez, O., Busquets, S., Amela, N., Dimova, V., Gunkel, M., Caradot, N., and Rouault, P.: A network of low-cost temperature sensors for real-time monitoring of combined sewer overflow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16386, 2021.

EGU21-9572 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Application of deep learning methods for urban water demand forecast modelling

Anjana G Rajakumar, Avi Anthony, and Vinoth Kumar

Water demand predictions forms an integral part of sustainable management practices for water supply systems. Demand prediction models aides in water system maintenance, expansions, daily operational planning and in the development of an efficient decision support system based on predictive analytics. In recent years, it has also found wide application in real-time control and operation of water systems as well. However, short term water demand forecasting is a challenging problem owing to the frequent variations present in the urban water demand patterns. There are numerous methods available in literature that deals with water demand forecasting. These methods can be roughly classified into statistical and machine learning methods. The application of deep learning methods for forecasting water demands is an upcoming research area that has found immense traction due to its ability to provide accurate and scalable models. But there are only a few works which compare and review these methods when applied to a water demand dataset. Hence, the main objective of this work is the application of different commonly used deep learning methods for development of a short-term water demand forecast model for a real-world dataset. The algorithms studied in this work are (i) Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) (ii) Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) (iii) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) (iv) Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and (v) the hybrid algorithm CNN-LSTM. Optimal supervised learning framework required for forecasting the one day ahead water demand for the study area is also identified. The dataset used in this study is from Hillsborough County, Florida, US. The water demand data was available for a duration of 10 months and the data frequency is about once per hour. These algorithms were evaluated based on the (1) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and (ii) Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values. Visual comparison of the predicted and true demand plots was also employed to check the prediction accuracy. It was observed that, the RMSE and MAPE values were minimal for the supervised learning framework that used the previous 24-hour data as input. Also, with respect to the forecast accuracy, CNN-LSTM performed better than the other methods for demand forecast, followed by MLP. MAPE values for the developed deep learning models ranged from 5% to 25%. The quantity, frequency and quality of data was also found to have substantial impact on the accuracy of the forecast models developed. In the CNN-LSTM based forecast model, the CNN component was found to effectively extract the inherent characteristics of historical water consumption data such as the trend and seasonality, while the LSTM part was able to reflect on the long-term historical process and future trend. Thus, its water demand prediction accuracy was improved compared to the other methods such as GRU, MLP, CNN and LSTM.

How to cite: G Rajakumar, A., Anthony, A., and Kumar, V.: Application of deep learning methods for urban water demand forecast modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9572, 2021.

EGU21-13470 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Characterization of hotels and bathing establishments water uses for understanding urban demand in touristic cities

Elena Toth, Cristiana Bragalli, and Mattia Neri

The touristic factor has not been adequately addressed in urban water demand studies, so far, and it is often neglected also by the water utilities. In a beach resort, where the water demand drastically increases during the summer months, a better understanding of the touristic uses would substantially contribute to improving the management of the available water supplies, already scarce during the dry season.

The present study contributes to the quantification of the water demand in touristic activities, analysing the single-consumer volumes of more than a thousand accommodation facilities (hotels and apartment hotels) and two hundred bathing establishments in Rimini, the most important coastal destination in Italy. For each user, the estimated monthly water volumes have been collected and validated, and the seasonal patterns analysed for an observation period of twelve years.

Each hotel and bathing establishment was characterised identifying the main attributes that may drive the water demand. The consumer volumes are put into relation with the hotel size, identified by the number of rooms, and the influence of the hotel category and of the presence of water-demanding services (such as swimming pool or spa, garden to be irrigated, restaurant) is analysed. For the bathing establishments, the number of beach umbrellas identify the number of expected costumers and some specific services are used as additional features to interpret the variability of the water consumptions.

The analysis identifies the features that have more influence on the water consumption patterns for hotels and bathing establishments. This kind of study allows to infer the behaviour of similar users, in order to estimate the expected patterns, as a function of the specific attributes of the touristic activity. Such benchmarks would also allow to check if the actual consumer volumes are in line with the typical ones, highlighting possible malfunctioning of the metering system or anomalous consumptions that would prompt an in-depth analysis of the water-uses in the hotel or bathing establishment premises.

How to cite: Toth, E., Bragalli, C., and Neri, M.: Characterization of hotels and bathing establishments water uses for understanding urban demand in touristic cities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13470, 2021.

EGU21-6031 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Advancing open source cyberinfrastructure for collecting, processing, storing and accessing high temporal resolution residential water use data

Camilo J. Bastidas Pacheco, Jeffery S. Horsburgh, Joseph C. Brewer, Robb J. Tracy, and Juan Caraballo

Collecting and managing high temporal resolution (< 1 minute) residential water use data is challenging due to cost and technical requirements associated with the volume and velocity of data collected. It is well known that this type of data has potential to expand our knowledge of residential water use, inform future water use predictions, and improve water conservation strategies. However, most studies collecting this type of data have been focused on the practical application of the data (e.g., developing and applying end use disaggregation algorithms) with much less focus on how the data were collected, retrieved, quality controlled, and managed to enable data visualization and analysis. We developed an open-source, modular, generalized cyberinfrastructure system to automate the process from data collection to analysis. The system has three main architectural components: first, the sensors and dataloggers for water use monitoring; second, the data communication, parsing and archival tools; and third, the analyses, visualization and presentations of data produced for different audiences. For the first component, we present a low-cost datalogging device, designed for installation on top of existing, analog, magnetically driven, positive displacement, residential water meters that can collect data at a user configurable time resolution interval. The second component consists of a system developed using existing open-source software technologies that manages the data collected, including services and databasing. The final element includes software tools for retrieving the data that can be integrated with advanced data analytics tools. The system was used in a single family residential water use data collection case study to test the scalability and performance of its functionalities within our design constraints. Testing with a base system configuration, our results show that the system requires approximately six minutes to process a single day of data collected at a four second temporal resolution for 500 properties. Thus, the system proved to be effective beyond the typical number of participants observed in similar studies of residential water use and would scale well beyond this even with the modest system resources we used for testing. All elements of the cyberinfrastructure developed are freely available in open source repositories for re-use.

How to cite: Bastidas Pacheco, C. J., Horsburgh, J. S., Brewer, J. C., Tracy, R. J., and Caraballo, J.: Advancing open source cyberinfrastructure for collecting, processing, storing and accessing high temporal resolution residential water use data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6031, 2021.

EGU21-3347 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

Advancing the cyberinfrastructure for smart water metering: A new open source water end use disaggregation algorithm

Nour Attallah, Jeffery Horsburgh, and Camilo Bastidas Pacheco

Water end use disaggregation aims to separate household water consumption data collected from a single residential water meter into appliance/fixture-level consumption data. In recent years, the field has rapidly expanded as the value of disaggregated data has been shown for understanding water use behavior, identifying anomalies, and identifying opportunities for conserving water. Several methods have been developed for disaggregating water end uses from high temporal resolution water use data collected using residential smart water meters. However, most existing methods have been incorporated into proprietary software tools and have been tested using datasets that are inaccessible due to privacy issues, with the result being that neither the code nor the data from these studies are available for verification or potential reuse. We describe and demonstrate a new, open source, and reproducible water end use disaggregation and classification tool that builds upon the results of existing smart water metering and end use disaggregation studies. The tool was designed and developed in Python and can be accessed via any current Python programming environment. It was tested on anonymized, high temporal resolution datasets collected from 31 residential dwellings located in the Cities of Logan and Providence, Utah, USA for a period of one month. Results from different meter types and sizes were tested to demonstrate the accuracy and reproducibility of the tool in disaggregating and classifying high temporal resolution data into individual water end use events. Execution of the tool requires approximately one minute for processing one-day of data collected at a four second time interval for one dwelling. The disaggregation tool is open source and can be adapted to specific research needs. The anonymized dataset we used to develop and test the tool is openly available in the HydroShare data repository.

How to cite: Attallah, N., Horsburgh, J., and Bastidas Pacheco, C.: Advancing the cyberinfrastructure for smart water metering: A new open source water end use disaggregation algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3347, 2021.

EGU21-14903 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.1

The PROCRUSTES testbed: tackling cyber-physical risk for water systems

Georgios Moraitis, Dionysios Nikolopoulos, Ifigeneia Koutiva, Ioannis Tsoukalas, George Karavokiros, and Christos Makropoulos

Our modern urban environment relies on critical infrastructures that serve vital societal functions, such as water supply and sanitation, which are exposed to various threats of both physical and cyber nature. Despite the progress in protection and increased vigilance, long-established practices within the water utilities may rely on precarious methods for the characterization and assessment of threats, with uncertainty pertaining to risk-relevant data and information. Sources for uncertainty can be attributed to e.g. limited capabilities of deterministic approaches, siloed analysis of water systems, use of ambiguous measures to describe and prioritise risks or common security misconceptions. To tackle those challenges, this work brings together an ensemble of solutions, to form a novel, unified process of resilience assessment for the water sector against an emerging cyber-physical threat landscape e.g., cyber-attacks on the command and control sub-system. Specifically, the proposed framework sets out an operational workflow that combines, inter alia, a) an Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) approach to derive alternative routes to quantify risks considering the dynamics of socio-technical systems, b) an adaptable optimisation platform which integrates advanced multi-objective algorithms for system calibration, uncertainty propagation analysis and asset criticality prioritization and c) a dynamic risk reduction knowledge-base (RRKB) designed to facilitate the identification and selection of suitable risk reduction measures (RRM). This scheme is overarched by a cyber-physical testbed, able to realistically model the interactions between the information layer (sensors, PLCs, SCADA) and the water distribution network. The testbed is designed to assess the water system beyond normal operational capacity. It facilitates the exploration of emergent and unidentified threats and vulnerabilities leading to Low Probability, High Consequence (LPHC) events that systems are not originally designed to handle. It also evaluates alternative risk treatment options against case-appropriate indicators. The final product is the accretion of actionable information to integrate risk into decision-making in a practical and standardized form. Our work envisions to bring forth state-of-art technologies and approaches for the cyber-wise water sector. We aspire to enhance existing capabilities for large utilities and enable small and medium water utilities with typically less resources, to reinforce their systems’ resilience and be better prepared against cyber-physical and other threats.

How to cite: Moraitis, G., Nikolopoulos, D., Koutiva, I., Tsoukalas, I., Karavokiros, G., and Makropoulos, C.: The PROCRUSTES testbed: tackling cyber-physical risk for water systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14903, 2021.

HS5.4.2 – Green infrastructure for sustainable urban hazard management

Sponge City Program’ (SCP) is the term used to describe the Chinese government’s approach to urban surface water management. The concept was conceived in 2014 in response to an increasing incidence of urban surface flooding in many Chinese cities. While ambitious and far-reaching in its aim (of reducing national flood risk, increasing water supply and improving water quality), the initiative must be implemented by individual sub-provincial or municipal-level government entities. The concept is similar to Blue-Green Cities (BGCs); sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) in the UK, it is developing with different regional climatic and hydrological characteristics, considering rapid urbanization. Indeed, the increasing use of national rather than international examples of best practice reflects a growing body of knowledge that has evolved since the start of the Sponge City initiative. The SCP so far now has run through 6 years and experience a transition on urban stormwater management and planning practices. In this paper, the implementation of the latest SCP guidelines will be presented that using the case of Ningbo and other Chinese cities to illustrate the transformation of the current SCP practices that undertaking the consideration of climate, environmental and socio-economic factors, and how the practice tackle challenges on governance, project financing, integration and assessment by the authorities and stakeholders. These valuable experiences will be vitally important influencing future urban stormwater management and planning practices in Chinese cities.

How to cite: Chan, F.: The development of Sponge City Program (SCP) – a transition of urban stormwater management and planning practice in Chinese cities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3301, 2021.

Rapid urbanisation, climate change and scarcity of freshwater leads to conservative water consumption practices, including wastewater recycling for non-potable ‘low exposure risk’ end-use, such as sub-surface landscape and selective garden irrigation. Small-scale decentralised and cost-effective water treatment technologies like green walls require low energy, and are ideal for implementation in both residential and commercial areas. Green walls have been shown to attenuate nutrients, with the treatment efficiency mostly dependent on soil characteristics and plant types. While green wall systems have long been used for thermal comfort under temperate climates, there has been less research on its optimised performance under Mediterranean climates, where long, dry periods in summer and sometimes water-logged conditions in winter, create challenges for both plant and soil health. Our pilot-scale research project used planters (2.5 m x 0.7 m x 0.75 m) to establish detached green façades irrigated by greywater, and to test the impact on façade viability and treatment performance of planter orientation, plant species,  deciduous and non-deciduous plants and the projected total leaf area. Influent and effluent volumes from the planters were carefully monitored, and water balances were established for the planters. The water requirements of green walls in east, west and north facing orientations, and using different plant species, were quantified under different seasons. We determined that annual water requirements for the deciduous plants were almost half that of the non-deciduous plants; as expected the leaves appeared on deciduous plants as air temperatures increased and then both type of plants showed similar water requirements. The evapotranspiration as estimated by the water balances, was validated by quantifying the plant water loss (transpiration) using a portable photosynthetic unit (LI-6400XT, Licor Inc., Lincoln, NE, USA). The transpiration measured on a single leaf (in triplicate) was scaled up to the projected total leaf area of the façade, to estimate the total transpiration from the planter. The influents and effluents were also monitored for water quality, to determine how their treatment performance changed with vegetation maturity and season. The green walls showed up to 90% total nitrogen and 80% total phosphorus removal efficiencies throughout the two years study period. However, the pathogen count was greatly impacted by the irrigation water temperature and the effluents had higher pathogen counts than the influents, irrespective of facade orientation or plant species. The results of the leaf area analysis and water balance measurements, as well as their effect on water quality, will be presented to identify suitable orientation and plant species for improving the urban micro-climate that could thrive under greywater irrigation, and in particular under Mediterranean climates.

How to cite: Karima, A., Ocampo, C., Barton, L., and Oldham, C.: A green solution for decentralised water treatment: a pilot-scale study on the performance of green walls irrigated with greywater, under a Mediterranean climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13743, 2021.

EGU21-15709 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Impact of urban areas' drainage system on the quality of water bodies and mitigation strategies

Giulia Mazzarotto and Paolo Salandin

Diffuse urban pollution is a significant factor in compromising receiving water and groundwater standards required by the EU Water Framework Directive. Many studies (e.g., Ashley et al., 2005; McGrane, 2016) show that changes in the built environment and climatic forces contribute to the increase of combined sewer system overflows and of stormwater directly conveyed to nearby water bodies. These discharges are responsible for receiving water contamination, as a result of high concentrations of pathogens, BOD, suspended solids (SS), hydrocarbons, heavy metals and nutrients, thus being a significant source of water bodies’ pollution.

To mitigate/eliminate pathogens and BOD contamination sources, the combined drainage system is usually split into separated sanitary sewer and stormwater systems, although difficulties related to economic and technical feasibility may be relevant. Nevertheless, this solution does not solve completely pollution due to SS, hydrocarbons, heavy metals from urban areas runoff and nutrients from rural drainage.

Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) deal with stormwater at source, helping infiltration and storage of water, increasing groundwater recharge, and reducing peak flood and volume in the drainage system. Moreover, filtration processes through porous media may reduce pollutants driven by first flush, usually controlled by stormwater tanks and sewer system spillways. However, clogging phenomenon limits drainage efficiency in the long-term, making sometimes porous media itself a source of contamination.

In the following, a PhD project focusing on the urban area of Treviso is illustrated. Treviso is crossed by the river Sile, one of the longest (95 km) European wellspring rivers, part of a protected area. The Sile river is polluted by discharges from both the existing combined sewer system and rural drainages.

While responsible agricultural practices will be promoted to mitigate the pollution originating from rural areas, a project aims to separate the combined system, developing a new pipe network for sanitary wastewater. When properly applied in the present drainage system devoted to the stormwater control only, SuDS solutions are able to mitigate pollution coming from wash-off and reduce flood peaks.

Discharge measurement stations will be realised on the Sile river upstream and downstream the Treviso town, to quantify drainage system outflows of the urban area during rainfall events and in dry conditions. Sampling for qualitative analysis will give a measure of the pollutants’ concentration.

SuDS solutions, e.g. porous pavements, infiltration trenches and vegetated swales, will be tested with laboratory equipment (6×2 m2) capable of considering the runoff and underground drainage in a fully controlled environment subjected to a prescribed rainfall intensity. By this way it will be possible to analyse the main physical processes and assess the SuDS solutions’ efficiency both in the short and long-term, using advanced mathematical models for the interpretation of results.

If the laboratory model will provide satisfactory results, a full-scale test will be developed on an experimental site in Treviso town. The installed qualitative and quantitative monitoring system will allow to determine the effectiveness of the solutions adopted.

How to cite: Mazzarotto, G. and Salandin, P.: Impact of urban areas' drainage system on the quality of water bodies and mitigation strategies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15709, 2021.

EGU21-9133 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Performance of a constructed floating wetland in mesocosm scale: nutrient removal under shock load and water level oscillation

Joana Postal Pasqualini, Jucimara Andreza Rigotti, and Lucia Ribeiro Rodrigues

Constructed Floating Wetland (CFW) has shown a high capacity to transform, recycle, retain and remove different types of pollutants, especially nutrients. A CFW was developed in mesocosms at the Institute of Hydraulic Research at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in order to evaluate the functionality of the system on treating synthetic effluent with nutrient concentrations simulating urban surface runoff. Two species of emergent macrophytes, Typha domingensis Pers. and Schoenoplectus californicus  were employed. The CFW was evaluated under changes in nutrient concentration and water level during two subsequent experiments, identified as “shock load” in order to simulate extreme rain events, accidental spills of pollutants or illegal discharges that are common in drainage systems and urban rivers worldwide. Comparative evaluations between species and the system responses were evaluated in different hydraulic retention time (HRT). The system was exposed to 24 h of HRT, with 20 cm of water level and 1.8 mg/L of TP, 4.9 mg/L of TN (mean concentration). After sampling, the tanks were filled to 40 cm, with 3.0 mg/L of TP and 13.8 mg/L of TN concentration . Samples were collected within 2 and 4 h to quantify the system's response to shock-load. After sampling, the level was reduced to 20 cm, followed by exposure for the remaining 6 days, when final samples were collected. Temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen and redox potential were measured in situ. Turbidity, color and pH was measured immediately after collection in the laboratory. Total phosphorus (TP), orthophosphate (PO43-), total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC), chlorophyll-a and pheophytin were also quantified. Only orthophosphate presented significant differences between initial and final concentrations, after the first 24h (F = 6.106, df = 1, p = 0.024). The shock load demonstrated significant differences between initial and final concentrations for TN (F = 10.097, df = 1, p = 0.005), for TP (F = 9.392, df = 1, p = 0.0067) and for TOC (F = 9.817, df  = 1, p = 0.005). As to final batch, significant differences between input shock load and output values were found for TN (F = 103.45, df = 1, p < 0.001), for TP (F = 7.584, df = 1, p = 0.0067), for PO43- (F = 6.864, df = 1, p = 0.017) and for TOC (F = 73.608, df = 1, p < 0.001). After 6 days, average removal rates for TN were about 28% for S. californicus and 87% for T. domingensis, for TP such removals were 29% and 55%, respectively. T. domingensis superior root development in association with the biofilm in the rhizosphere of the plants, were responsible for the best efficiency. The results show evidence of the benefits related to the ecosystem service associated with the CFW built in mesocosms. The understanding of the performance of compensatory techniques in controlled situations represents an indispensable tool for the knowledge of the limitations and the consequent technical improvement necessary for the feasibility of implementing nature-based solutions as the CFW. 

How to cite: Postal Pasqualini, J., Andreza Rigotti, J., and Ribeiro Rodrigues, L.: Performance of a constructed floating wetland in mesocosm scale: nutrient removal under shock load and water level oscillation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9133, 2021.

EGU21-15770 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Green and sustainable plasma-based water pollution control

Rasool Erfani, Lena Ciric, and Tohid Erfani

Sustainable urbanisation relies on green infrastructure (GI) for its successful delivery. GI includes a network of environmental features that delivers a range of services including water purification and pollution treatment (WPPT) as measures for health and disease mitigation and adaptation for recovery. Recently wide range of innovative approaches for WPPT are introduced. This study shows how plasma engineering can be considered as a cheap and efficient alternative for WPPT in context of GI. We present, in particular, Dielectric Barrier Discharge Plasma actuator features and its integration in current infrastructure. We investigate its beneficial point of use application for delivery of a promising resilient method in responding to urban public health emergency. In particular, we show how this can be advantageous for pollution control in both city- and catchment-scale studies without reliance on additive chemicals.

How to cite: Erfani, R., Ciric, L., and Erfani, T.: Green and sustainable plasma-based water pollution control, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15770, 2021.

EGU21-7915 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Lightweight aggregates to reduce heavy metal pollution in green infrastructure for urban stormwater management

Concepcion Pla, Javier Valdes-Abellan, Miguel Angel Pardo, Maria Jose Moya-Llamas, and David Benavente

The impervious nature of urban areas is mostly responsible for urban flooding, runoff water pollution and the interception of groundwater recharge. Green infrastructure and sustainable urban drainage systems combine natural and artificial measures to mitigate the abovementioned problems, improving stormwater management and simultaneously increasing the environmental values of urban areas. The actual rate of urban growth in many urban areas requires the enhancement and optimization of stormwater management infrastructures to integrate the territorial development with the natural processes. Regarding the quality of runoff stormwater, heavy metals are critical for their impact on human health and ecological systems, even more if we consider the cumulative effect that they produce on biota. Thus, innovative stormwater management approaches must consider new solutions to deal with heavy metal pollution problems caused by runoff. In this study, we propose the employment of Arlita® and Filtralite®, two kind of lightweight aggregates obtained from expanded clays, to remove heavy metal concentration from runoff stormwater. Laboratory experiments were developed to evaluate the removal rate of different heavy metals existent in runoff stormwater. The lightweight aggregates acted as filter materials in column experiments to quantify their removal capacity. In addition, batch tests were also developed to evaluate the exhaustive capacity of the materials. Results from the study confirmed the efficiency of the selected lightweight aggregates to reduce the heavy metals concentration by up to 90% in urban stormwater runoff.

How to cite: Pla, C., Valdes-Abellan, J., Pardo, M. A., Moya-Llamas, M. J., and Benavente, D.: Lightweight aggregates to reduce heavy metal pollution in green infrastructure for urban stormwater management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7915, 2021.

EGU21-12457 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

National Green Infrastructure Facility – a specialised ‘living laboratory’ to assess the value of urban green infrastructure

Daniel Green, Ross Stirling, Claire Walsh, Eleanor Starkey, Alethea Walker, Anil Yildiz, Narryn Thaman, and Richard Dawson

Green Infrastructure (GI) offers multiple and integrated benefits to urban areas, including relieving pressure on ‘grey’ infrastructure systems by locally managing surface runoff within cities to reduce the risk of urban flooding. Although the use of GI has been shown to attenuate flooding, monitored and quantifiable data determining the effectiveness of GI is imperative for supporting widespread adoption of GI within cities and to provide an evidence-base to inform the design and maintenance procedures of such systems and ultimately influence key decision makers .

The National Green Infrastructure Facility (NGIF) based in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK, is a purpose-built, publicly accessible, ‘living laboratory’ and demonstration site established in 2017, funded by the UK Collaboratorium for Research on Infrastructure and Cities. The NGIF explores how a wide range of green features such as trees, shrubs and soils can help reduce flooding in cities and make them more resilient and sustainable to future changes in climate and urban pressures. The facility hosts a number of novel GI features of varying scale, monitored with dense sensor networks to allow the in-situ measurement of key hydrological, climatic and biophysical variables (e.g. precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, water depth, runoff and outflow rates) which are able to provide quantified evidence of the hydrological performance of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS). Such systems generate detailed insights into how SuDS and nature-based solutions can be used to improve surface water management, optimise geo-energy for building heating/cooling and how systems can be used for urban water treatment.

GI features across the NGIF include an experimental  and fully functional swale, providing protection to the area of Newcastle-upon-Tyne in which the feature is located, 10 lysimeter bioretention cells, a series of rain-garden ‘ensembles’ and a monitored green roof system. All experimental features are subjected to prevalent environmental conditions and act as fully functional GI systems, but conditions can also be augmented and simulated to ensure that the GI features act as semi-controlled experimental systems to determine responses outside of the natural instrumented record. All environmental data is recorded at high temporal (< 5 minutes) and spatial resolution and is publicly accessible in real-time via the NGIF API.

This presentation provides an overview of the NGIF and discusses the current research activities taking place across the site. Data is presented from each of the GI systems to demonstrate and discuss their performance and responses during natural and simulated events, including extremes, and to assess their effectiveness in responding to localised changes in climate. Future research directions and collaborative opportunities are also highlighted.

How to cite: Green, D., Stirling, R., Walsh, C., Starkey, E., Walker, A., Yildiz, A., Thaman, N., and Dawson, R.: National Green Infrastructure Facility – a specialised ‘living laboratory’ to assess the value of urban green infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12457, 2021.

EGU21-13029 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Green roof effects on the rainwater response in the Mediterranean area: first results of a Sicilian case study

Dario Pumo, Antonio Francipane, Francesco Alongi, and Leonardo Noto

Over the last decades, we have been witnessing an increasing frequency of urban floods often attributed to the interaction between intensification of rainfall extremes due to climate change and increasing urbanization. Consequently, many studies have been trying to propose different new alternatives to mitigate ground effects of ever more frequent and severe extreme rainfall events in a context of growing urbanization, such as rain gardens, green roofs, permeable parking lots, etc., which are commonly referred to as green infrastructures.

With this regard, one of the most promising mitigation solutions is represented by multilayer green roofs. These systems, coupling classical green roofs with a rainwater harvesting system, results in a high capacity in retaining rainwater, thus improving the potential effects acted by classical green roofs on pluvial floods mitigation. These systems are particularly suited for applications in semi-arid climate, where a fraction of the rainwater can be detained during the more severe rainfall events, significantly reducing the pressure on drainage systems, and released in a later moment or reused, for instance, to sustain the vegetation during driest periods.

This study describes a multilayer green roof installed at the Department of Engineering of the University of Palermo (Sicily, Italy) and its preliminary results on its capacity to reduce the pressure of rainfall events on drainage systems in a Mediterranean context. The green roof has an extension of almost 35 m2 and is made of three different areas with different soil thickness (a mixture of volcanic material) and different Mediterranean vegetation. The green roof is equipped with multiple sensors to monitor the water level in the storage layer, soil water content, air and water temperature, and rainfall. Besides, a weighted rain gauge, a disdrometer, and a meteorological station for the collection of meteorological data are available as well.

An equal size classical roof area bordering the green roof installation is also monitored. Four different thermometers are used to measure the temperatures in different points of the roofs and a system of two rain barrels and two pressure sensors allows to collect and compare the rainwater coming from the green and the original roofs. Such an installation, differently from many others, has the advantage to allow a complete characterization of the potential benefits of a multilayer green roof through a comparison of the rainwater released by the two roof configurations at a rainfall event scale.

The study provides the preliminary results arising from the analysis of the two roof configurations' response to a series of rainfall events characterized by different duration and intensity.

How to cite: Pumo, D., Francipane, A., Alongi, F., and Noto, L.: Green roof effects on the rainwater response in the Mediterranean area: first results of a Sicilian case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13029, 2021.

EGU21-7125 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Capacity of Quercus robur L. and Tilia cordata Mill. trees in providing urban ecosystem services in boreal climate

Sofia Sushko, Alexey Yaroslavtsev, Nina Tsuvareva, and Riccardo Valentini

Trees play an important role in urban ecosystem functioning and providing many ecosystem services, in particular, water and energy balance regulation. Consequently, trees can be a tool to mitigate to run-off and heat island effect in urban areas. We quantified the possibility of urban trees to provide these ecosystem services in the northernmost city with a million population – St. Petersburg (59°57′ N / 30°19′ E; Russia). Two diffuse-porous tree species – Quercus robur L. (n=2) and Tilia cordata Mill. (n=4) – were chosen for the research. These tree species are the most common in the green infrastructure of the city despite they are not typical for this biome, i.e. south taiga. During two growing season (July-Oct. 2019, April-Oct. 2020), tree sap flux was measured by thermal dissipation method using TreeTalker device (Nature 4.0 Corp., Italy). Sap flux density (Js) was calculated with modified Granier’s empirical calibration equation. Energy loss through tree transpiration was estimated from sap flux per tree (Js × sap wood area) and latent heat of vaporization. For the entire observed period, average daily Js (24 h) of Q. robur trees were almost two times higher than T. cordata trees (3.46 vs. 1.91 g cm-2 h-1). Importantly, for Q. robur Js significantly decreased with increasing tree age (from 3.75 to 1.99 g cm-2 h-1 with age alteration from 145 to 350 yrs.), while for T. cordata it did not change (1.74 and 1.69 g cm-2 h-1 for 60-80 and 100-115 yrs.). Q. robur showed a significant higher daily energy loss through tree transpiration compared to T. cordata (618 and 396 W tree-1 with 100-108 diameter at breast high) for the studying period. Thus, Q. robur compared to T. cordata was more effective in providing water regulation services, especially in shallow groundwater table typical for St. Petersburg. Moreover, this tree species also has a higher capacity in mitigate to urban heat island effect.

Current research was financially supported by Russian Science Foundation, No 19-77-30012.

How to cite: Sushko, S., Yaroslavtsev, A., Tsuvareva, N., and Valentini, R.: Capacity of Quercus robur L. and Tilia cordata Mill. trees in providing urban ecosystem services in boreal climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7125, 2021.

EGU21-668 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Cooling artificial turf through evaporation from a subsurface water storage unit

Marjolein van Huijgevoort and Gijsbert Cirkel

The increase in population in cities has led to increased pressure on available sport facilities. As a result, natural grass fields are converted to artificial turf, because fields with artificial turf can be used more frequently. Downsides of these artificial turf fields are the increase in surface temperature and the decrease in infiltration of precipitation resulting in faster discharge. Artificial turf can reach very high surface temperatures leading to unplayable fields and health risks, but also contributing to the urban heat island effect. To counteract these high temperatures, irrigation of the fields is needed, which leads to high water demands. In this study, a system to store precipitation below the fields and to enable evaporation to cool the artificial turf was tested. The system consists of water-storing units below the field, a capillary shockpad that enables water transport to the artificial turf and a natural infill from where water can evaporate. To quantify the effects on temperature and evaporation of the system, four test sites were created with natural grass, conventional artificial turf and two versions of the cooled artificial turf (non-infill and standard). All sites were equipped to measure evaporation, surface temperature, net radiation and water levels below the fields. A separate weather station was installed to measure other meteorological variables (e.g. precipitation, air temperature, wind). During the summer of 2020 on days with a maximum air temperature around 30°C, surface temperature reached 37°C at the cooled standard artificial grass, whereas it reached 62.5°C at the conventional artificial turf. The measured surface temperature for the cooled turf was less than 2°C warmer than the surface temperature at the natural grass site (35.3°C). Evaporation from the cooled artificial turf reached maximum values around 4 mm/d during the summer and was about half of the evaporation from natural grass, whereas evaporation from conventional artificial turf was close to zero. These results show that the system is successful in lowering the surface temperature by evaporation. This reduction in surface temperature is important to maintain playable conditions, but also helps to mitigate the heat island effect. In addition, the water storage below the fields reduces peak discharges during high-intensity precipitation. By combining these functions, the cooled artifical turf fields can help cities adapt to climate change.

How to cite: van Huijgevoort, M. and Cirkel, G.: Cooling artificial turf through evaporation from a subsurface water storage unit, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-668, 2021.

EGU21-2534 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Dual porosity effects in hydrological performance of extensive green roofs

Vojtech Skala, Michal Dohnal, Jana Votrubova, Michal Snehota, and Petra Heckova

Artificial substrates for green infrastructure have different composition and properties compared to natural soils. The admixture of light porous minerals such as pumice or expanded clay is often used to decrease the substrate weight and to increase water storage capacity. On the other hand, it could lead to dual porosity character of substrates and may affect their retention properties.

The dual-continuum model S1D is used to asses water flow in extensive green roof test beds with artificial substrate. The model numerically solves dual set of Richards’ equations. The soil hydraulic properties are described using van Genuchten-Mualem approach. Selected model parameters were optimized using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm.

Two green roof test beds located at the University Centre for Energy Efficient Buildings of the Czech Technical University in Prague are studied. The test beds are filled with 60 mm of extensive green roof substrate, planted with sedum cuttings, respectively 40 mm of substrate, planted with sedum carpet. The substrate is a mixture of spongilit (55 %), crushed expanded clay (30 %) and peat (15 %). The outflow from the test beds is registered by tipping bucket flowmeter and the moisture content within the soil substrate by TDR probes. The test bed with sedum carpet is also weighted. For complete hydrometeorological characterization, data from the nearby meteorological station are available.

Dual-continuum model provides higher flexibility and overall better agreement between measured and simulated variables. Further investigation of hydrological regime of such substrates and possible hysteresis of their soil water retention curve is needed.

The research was supported by the Czech Science Foundation under project number No. 20-00788S. Experimental work has been supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports within National Sustainability Programme I, project number LO1605.

How to cite: Skala, V., Dohnal, M., Votrubova, J., Snehota, M., and Heckova, P.: Dual porosity effects in hydrological performance of extensive green roofs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2534, 2021.

EGU21-14173 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Analyze the retention characteristics of green roofs.

Xiang Feng Hong

Due to the expansion of the urban area increases the impervious area and Inhibits the influence of evapotranspiration and infiltration of the water cycle. In addition, climate change causes extreme rainfall events, increase rainfall have greatly increased surface runoff in cities, Increase the intensity and depth of rainfall. These have led to a substantial increase in surface runoff in cities.

Green roof is one of the low-impact development measures. This study will improve the above-mentioned problems through the rainfall retention characteristics of green roofs, Calculate peak flow reduction and delay of arrival time. We have built a green roof observation system which including experimental group (green roof) and control group (no green roof) to obtain various observational data of the water cycle. Then input the data into the surface hydrological model for calibration and validation to analyze the retention characteristics of green roofs. Evaluate the flood reduction effect of green roofs in Taiwan.

How to cite: Hong, X. F.: Analyze the retention characteristics of green roofs., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14173, 2021.

EGU21-10259 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

Investigating bioretention cell performance: A large-scale lysimeter study 

Daniel Green, Ross Stirling, Simon De Ville, Virginia Stovin, and Richard Dawson

Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) are a widely adopted approach for managing excess urban runoff by intercepting, retaining and attenuating the flow of water through the built environment, playing a key role in reducing urban flood risk. Vegetated bioretention cells (‘rain gardens’) are one of the most simple, practical and commonly implemented SuDS options and can be easily retrofitted into urban spaces to deal with surface water from paved areas. Although current UK and international guidance provides design guidance for SuDS, no quantitative indications on their hydrological performance are currently available. This study aims to provide evidence to assess the effectiveness of such systems to support optimal implementation of vegetated bioretention cells for stormwater management. 

Four purpose built, large-scale lysimeter experiments (2.0 m x 2.0 m, each divided into two isolated 1.0 m x 2.0 m cell pairs) were designed to provide long-term monitoring data of key hydrological variables and demonstrate the capacity and effectiveness of monitored bioretention systems. The lysimeters were filled with an engineered soil profile consisting of a surface SuDS substrate (700 mm depth) to sustain vegetation growth and store/attenuate flows, and drainage layers (300 mm depth) consisting of a fine gravel transition layer to prevent the movement of fine sediments and a course gravel base layer to allow free drainage into gauged outflow units. 

Each of the lysimeter cells feature a dense sensor network, allowing spatiotemporal soil-atmosphere interactions to be observed and changes in relation to rainfall events to be quantified. Tipping bucket rain gauges situated on each of the lysimeters allow the quantification of local precipitation inflows, which are also analysed in the context of site-wide weather monitoring stations to calculate Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration. Outflow from the drainage layer of each lysimeter cell is measured using an outflow gauge. Additionally, a network of in-situ soil sensors were deployed throughout the substrate profile at various depths to quantify soil water movement and changes in volumetric water content, soil temperature, electrical conductivity, soil-water potential and hydrostatic water level in accordance with localised weather conditions. Quantifying inflows, storages and losses allows an understanding of the lysimeter mass balance. Further, each of the lysimeter cell pairs were planted with different planting styles (unvegetated control, reference short grass and two uniform mono-cropped shrub species) to provide differing reference evapotranspiration scenarios and to understand the influence of vegetation on bioretention cell performance.  

This paper outlines the commissioning of a large-scale lysimeter study at the National Green Infrastructure Facility and presents results from mid-2020 onwards, highlighting the hydrological performance of the bioretention cells under a range of natural storm events and climatic conditions. Lysimeter mass balance and retention efficiencies are presented for each of the vegetation scenarios. Further, differences in soil-water retention ability between the lysimeters are examined in relation to the efficiency of various planting styles and their comparative evapotranspirative behaviour. Working together with a range of stakeholders involved in UK SuDS schemes, this work is helping to inform design criteria and anticipated bioretention cell performance using a quantified evidence base.

How to cite: Green, D., Stirling, R., De Ville, S., Stovin, V., and Dawson, R.: Investigating bioretention cell performance: A large-scale lysimeter study , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10259, 2021.

EGU21-11124 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Long time risk assessment of soil water shortage in planting pits of young urban roadside trees in the city of Hamburg, Germany

Alexander Schütt, Selina Schaaf-Titel, Joscha N. Becker, and Annette Eschenbach

Urban trees as main part of urban green infrastructure provide manifold ecosystem services and contribute to the wellbeing of humans. Unfortunately, urban trees, especially roadside trees, are severely challenged by both, political conflicts of interests in terms of city development and a variety of physically stressors. Contrary to the known benefits of urban green, its proportion in most cities is still decreasing. Furthermore, climate change exacerbates the already challenging preconditions.

For northern Germany, climate change is predicted to shift temperature- and precipitation patterns. Simultaneously the frequency of “summer days” and “hot days” are likely to increase, leading to elevated risk of soil drying during the vegetation period.

The city of Hamburg is home to almost 220.000 roadside trees. Especially trees planted nowadays are exposed to harsh roadside conditions. In the event of drought, young-trees compared to well-established trees, are not in touch with deep- or distant water reservoirs and the risk of vitality loss or death increases.

Our research aims to characterize the soil hydrological conditions in the rooting zone of roadside young-trees during the first years after plantation. Further it aims to identify spatio-temporal dynamics of soil water response during phases of extreme meteorological drought. Our findings are based on a long-term soil water monitoring across the city of Hamburg, which was started in 2016. The monitoring covers 20 trees from 7 species, planted between 2007 and 2019 with large, medium and low soil sealing. Soil water tension and soil temperature were measured hourly with sensors in the root ball, in the tree pit filled with structural soil and the surrounding soil (16 sensors per site).

Our data provides a broad characterization of soil water conditions for young-tree sites in urban areas, and show that water supply in years of moderate meteorological drought is not only extremely heterogeneous on large scales, but can also vary greatly on a small scale. The water tension in the root ball, which should provide the highest amount of water per unit, was highly variable and exceeded thresholds even in the first year after plantation and in almost every vegetation period across all sites. In years of high meteorological drought like in 2018, the soil water tensions exceeded the thresholds in almost all compartments, which leads to a risk of vitality losses and mortality.

Our data show the need for adaption of general tree site concepts for future plantations. This unique dataset will be further completed with the aim to include future sites and plantation strategies e.g. the underground connection of planting pits, to increase the diversity of site characteristics and to develop reliable modelling and recommendations.

How to cite: Schütt, A., Schaaf-Titel, S., Becker, J. N., and Eschenbach, A.: Long time risk assessment of soil water shortage in planting pits of young urban roadside trees in the city of Hamburg, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11124, 2021.

EGU21-7832 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Understanding the effectiveness of measures aiming to stabilize urban gullies in Congolese cities: a systematic analysis based on field surveys

Eric Lutete Landu, Guy Ilombe Mawe, Charles Bielders, Fils Makanzu Imwangana, Olivier Dewitte, Jean Poesen, and Matthias Vanmaercke

Many cities of the D.R. Congo are strongly affected by urban mega gullies. There are currently hundreds of such gullies in Kinshasa, Kikwit and Bukavu, representing a cumulative length of >200 km. Many of these gullies (typically tens of meters wide and deep) continue to expand, causing major damage to houses and other infrastructure and often claim human casualties. To mitigate these impacts, numerous measures are being implemented. The type and scale of these measures varies widely: from large structural measures like retention ponds to local initiatives of stabilizing gully heads with waste material. Nonetheless, earlier work indicates that an estimated 50% of the existing urban gullies continue to expand, despite the implementation of such measures. As such, we currently have very limited insight into the effectiveness of these measures and the overall best strategies to prevent and mitigate urban gullies. One reason for this is that most initiatives to stabilize urban gullies happen on a rather isolated basis and are rarely evaluated afterwards.

This work aims to improve our understanding of this issue. For this, we constructed a large inventory of measures implemented to stabilize urban gullies in Kinshasa, Kikwit and Bukavu and statistically confronted these measures with observed vegetation recovery and long-term gully expansion rates (derived from high-resolution imagery over a period of >14 years). Our preliminary results (based on a dataset of > 900 urban gullies) shows that the most commonly applied measures are revegetation and reinforcement of gully heads with sandbags or household waste material (implemented in around 65% of the cases). Retention ponds in streets and infiltration pits on house parcels are also frequently implemented (around 25% of the cases). Overall, techniques relying on vegetation are used relatively more frequently in regions with clayey soil, while techniques involving digging (e.g. infiltration pits) and topographic remodeling (e.g. gully reshaping by creation of terraces) are used mainly in sandy or sandy-clay areas. Surprisingly, small-scale local initiatives, such as stabilizing gully heads with household waste, often appear to have a higher effectivity than some large-scale civil engineering initiatives. However, such small-scale initiatives can come with important additional impacts (e.g. sanitation concerns). More research is needed to confirm these findings. Furthermore, the stability of gullies seems to be strongly linked to the degree of vegetation cover near the gully head. Nonetheless, it is not always clear if vegetation is the cause or the result of this stability. Overall, this study provides one of the first large scale assessments of the effectiveness of gully control measures in urban tropical environments. With this study, we hope to contribute to a better prevention and mitigation of this problem that affects many cities of the tropical Global South.

How to cite: Lutete Landu, E., Ilombe Mawe, G., Bielders, C., Makanzu Imwangana, F., Dewitte, O., Poesen, J., and Vanmaercke, M.: Understanding the effectiveness of measures aiming to stabilize urban gullies in Congolese cities: a systematic analysis based on field surveys, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7832, 2021.

EGU21-14130 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

Analyze the energy balance and energy-saving benefits of  green roofs

Chuan Ching Pang

In the context of rapid global urbanization, problems such as urban thermal effects often occur, which may cause the increase in building energy consumption. Green roofs have the effect to regulating the indoor temperature of buildings. This study is expected to evaluate the cooling and energy-saving benefits of green roofs and build an experimental to simulation buildings situation , the control group without green roof and the experimental group with green roof, compare the indoor temperature and heat flux changes in the control group and the experimental group, and calculate the radiant heat, latent heat, sensible heat, conduction heat in the green roof layer , And build a model to simulation energy project to discuss the energy balance of the green roof and the impact on the energy of the buildings below, and analyze the cooling and energy saving effects of the green roof.

How to cite: Pang, C. C.: Analyze the energy balance and energy-saving benefits of  green roofs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14130, 2021.

EGU21-14638 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

A Multi-variable & Multi-objective Optimization Framework for LID Layout in Sponge City

Sijie Tang, Jiping Jiang, and Yi Zheng

Practitioners usually design the plan of Sponge City construction (SCC) by combining LID facilities (e.g., rain garden, rain barrels, green roofs, and grassed swales) according to their personal experiences or general guidelines. The layout (including selection, connection and distribution area) of LID facilities is subjective, in the risk of far from optimal combination. Previous researchers have developed some LID optimization tools, which only consider the dimension and number of LIDs in a given scenario. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a flexible and extensible design tool with the support of urban hydrological model to conduct the facilities layout optimization. This study introduced a SWMM-based multi-variable and multi-objective optimization framework called CAFID (Comprehensive Assessment and Fine Design Model of Sponge City) to meet this end. The assessment module with multi-objective couples diverse controlling end-points (e.g., total runoff, peak runoff, pollutant concentration, cost, and customized social-ecological factors) as the candidates of assessment criteria. The optimization module with multi-variable is implemented by SWMM, starting with three steps: 1) Full allocation. Based on the availability, list the candidates of LID facility for each sub-catchment; 2) Full connection. Order the potential stream direction of surface runoff from rainfall to municipal network, based on possible hierarchical structure of sub-catchments and LID facilities; 3) Full coverage. Identify all the suitable area for LID facility in sub-catchment. The optimization on the 3 variables, the selection, connection, and area, is powered by NSGA-II and TOPSIS algorithms, which make it possible that we choose a final result from the set of nondominated solutions according to special weight distribution. The effectiveness of CAFID was illustrated through a case of Sponge City in Fenghuangcheng of Shenzhen City, one of 30 national pilot sponge cities in China. As well, this new framework is expected to be widely verified and applied in Sponge City construction in China or similar concepts all over the world.

How to cite: Tang, S., Jiang, J., and Zheng, Y.: A Multi-variable & Multi-objective Optimization Framework for LID Layout in Sponge City, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14638, 2021.

EGU21-8154 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Optimization of Low Impact Development Based on SWMM and Genetic Algorithm: Case Study in Tianjin, China

Meng Xiao, Yu Li, and Jinhui Jeanne Huang

Low impact development (LID) is an important measure to control the total amount of rainwater runoff from the source and solve the problem of non-point source pollution. However, there are many kinds of LID facilities, and the selection and layout of these facilities are restricted by the local physical and geographical conditions, hydrogeological characteristics, water resources, rainfall patterns and other factors. Therefore, the selection of LID facilities and the determination of optimization scheme are the main challenges for the construction of LID rainwater system. In this study, SWMM model and genetic algorithm (GA) are used to optimize the layout of LID. The multiple objectives include runoff reduction, occupied area and lifecycle cost. The results show that the combined LID facility scheme has obvious control effect on runoff reduction in the 10-year rainfall process.

How to cite: Xiao, M., Li, Y., and Huang, J. J.: Optimization of Low Impact Development Based on SWMM and Genetic Algorithm: Case Study in Tianjin, China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8154, 2021.

EGU21-9008 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

A Surrogate-Based Optimization Approach for Sustainable Drainage Design in Large Urban Areas

Omid Seyedashraf, Andrea Bottacin-Busolin, and Julien J. Harou

The design of conventional and sustainable urban drainage systems is a complex task that requires consideration of several design objectives and decision variables. Simulation-based optimization models allow exploring the decision space and identify design options that best meet the design criteria. However, existing approaches generally require simulation of the system hydraulics for each function evaluation, which leads to prohibitive computational cost when applied to large drainage networks.

In this work, a disaggregation-emulation approach is proposed which allows sequential optimization of multiple sub-catchments in an urban area without having to simulate the full system dynamics. This is achieved by using artificial neural networks (ANN) to represent the boundary condition at the interface between neighboring sub-catchments. The approach is demonstrated with an application to a many-objective optimization problem in which sustainable drainage systems are used to expand the capacity of an existing drainage network. The evaluation of the objective function using the emulation model is found to be 22 times faster than using the physically based model, resulting in a significant speed-up of the optimization process. Unlike previously proposed optimization approaches that rely on surrogate models to emulate the objective functions, the proposed approach remains physically based for the individual sub-catchments, thus reducing the chance of bias in the optimization results.

How to cite: Seyedashraf, O., Bottacin-Busolin, A., and Harou, J. J.: A Surrogate-Based Optimization Approach for Sustainable Drainage Design in Large Urban Areas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9008, 2021.

EGU21-11893 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

A socio-ecological robustness approach for evaluation of urban Green Infrastructure effectiveness in a dense precarious settlement

Maria Eduarda Barbosa Veiga, Luma Gabriela Fonseca Alves, and Carlos de Oliveira Galvão

The implementation of Green Infrastructure (GI) for hazard management has been studied and evaluated for reducing the risk of and increasing resilience to flood events, flooded areas and damage costs. Still, less attention has been given to the governance aspects involved in the implementation of GI. We present the GI assessment through a robustness approach, where the urban environment is referred to as a socio-ecological system. Robustness can be assumed as the “maintenance of system performance either when subjected to external, unpredictable perturbations, or when there is uncertainty about the values of internal design parameters” (Carlson and Doyle, 2002). In this sense, it is required to investigate the socio-ecological configurations of GIs as a new component introduced within the urban system in addition to their technical aspects. We use the Robustness of Coupled Infrastructure Systems Framework (Anderies et al., 2019) to analyse the dynamics of the system through the connections between its components (resource users, public infrastructure, public infrastructure providers and natural infrastructure) and to evaluate the associated robustness through their critical feedback structures links, by analysing human behaviour (relationships and perceptions), monitoring actions, conflicts, and resource appropriation limits. In this way, it is possible to assess the changes [MEV1] that influence the functioning of the system. We applied this framework to a case of a dense precarious urban settlement subject to flash floods in Brazil. We developed three scenarios considering the application of GI, and they were simulated using SWMM model: (i) the current one; (ii) the implementation of three infiltration-based GI (permeable pavements, bioretention systems, and infiltration trenches) throughout the catchment, not only in public areas but also inside the lots, aimed at reducing flooding hotspots; (iii) the implementation of low-storage rainwater harvesting systems in all households within the catchment. We used a representative heavy rainfall event capable of producing flash floods as input for simulation of all scenarios. The SWMM was parameterised for the current land use and land occupation, representing the spatial patterns that determine runoff overflow propagation, producing, for each scenario, the spatial distribution of flooding hotspots throughout the catchment. In the current state scenario, the system has exhibited poorly robust links, furthermore flooding spots have been detected along the catchment. By applying the infiltration-based GI, besides all flooding spots have been mitigated, the system has the potential to acquire robustness by enabling trust in relationships, improvement in users' perception of resources, monitoring of actions and conflict resolution. The implementation of rainwater harvesting systems could strengthen the robustness through popular participation, processes perception by the users and appropriation limits, apart from reducing 26% of the flooding spots. The robustness analysis points out that the implementation of  GI in the catchment will be effective only if it is reached a household-level engagement, resource importance and a proper environment for conflict resolution, besides the mitigation of flood events.

 

Anderies, J.M. et al. (2019). Reg Environ Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01529-0

Carlson, J.M.; Doyle, J. (2002) PNAS, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.012582499

How to cite: Veiga, M. E. B., Alves, L. G. F., and Galvão, C. D. O.: A socio-ecological robustness approach for evaluation of urban Green Infrastructure effectiveness in a dense precarious settlement, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11893, 2021.

EGU21-695 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

Future directions in Blue-Green Infrastructure research

Emily O’Donnell

As global cities rethink their approaches to urban flood risk and water management in response to climate change, accelerating urbanisation and reductions in public green space, Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) is gaining increasing recognition due to the advantages of multifunctional BGI solutions over traditional piped drainage and grey infrastructure. BGI, including green and blue roofs, swales, rain gardens, street trees, ponds, urban wetlands, restored watercourses, reconnected floodplains, and re-naturalised rivers, is designed to turn ‘blue’ (or ‘bluer’) during rainfall events in order to reduce urban flood risk. In addition to managing flood risk and increasing water security, BGI generates a range of socio-cultural, economic and environmental co-benefits that help city authorities tackle other urban challenges and ultimately improve the quality of life of city dwellers.

Extensive research over the last decade has focused on improving knowledge of BGI systems in several broad areas, including: hydrological and hydraulic modelling of water flow through BGI assets; biochemical assessments of sediment and water quality; public preferences; identification and evaluation of BGI co-benefits, and; BGI planning and governance. Emerging research into adaptation pathways, natural capital accounting and social practice approaches for understanding community preferences demonstrate how BGI research is moving beyond hydrodynamic modelling to explore decision making under future uncertainty and placing greater emphasis on the role of community preferences in designing BGI that is accepted and supported by those who directly benefit.

This presentation will explore these emerging research areas, particularly focusing on the need for interdisciplinary research into BGI to enable the challenges and opportunities to be fully appreciated. Current knowledge gaps that present research opportunities in BGI will also be discussed, including the need for rigorous assessment criteria to determine the success of multifunctional BGI systems; greater investigation of the social benefits of BGI and the value people place on different types of BGI; the role of implicit perceptions in designing BGI assets, and; the role of urban watercourses as multifunctional BGI corridors able to safely convey stormwater while boosting water quality, providing multiple urban pathways (active transport, wildlife movements, etc.) and increasing green space in cities.

How to cite: O’Donnell, E.: Future directions in Blue-Green Infrastructure research, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-695, 2021.

EGU21-15461 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Urban Hazard Adaptation: Efficiency of a Green Infrastructure in an Italian metropolis

Francesco Busca and Roberto Revelli

In recent years, safeguarding approaches and environmental management initiatives have been adopted both by international institutions and local governments , aimed at sustainable use of natural resources and their restoration, in order to manage hazard level of climate change consequences (urban flooding, droughts and water shortages, sea level rise, issues with food security).

Cities represent the main collectors of these effects, consequently they need to implement specific adaptation plans mitigating consequences of such future events: Green Infrastructures (G.I.) fall within the most effective tools for achieving the goal. In the urban context, they also identify themselves as valid strategies for biodiversity recovery and ecological functions.

This work analyzes the role of a G.I. in an urban environment, with the aim of quantifying Ecosystem Services (E.S.) provided by vegetation: through usage of i-Tree, specific software suite for E.S. quantification, the sustainability offered by “Le Vallere” park, a 34-hectares greenspace spread between municipalities of Turin and Moncalieri (Italy), was analyzed, in collaboration with the related management institution (Ente di gestione delle Aree Protette del Po torinese). The study, carried out using two specific tools (i-Tree Eco and i-Tree Hydro), focuses on different aspects: carbon sequestration and storage, atmospheric pollutants reduction, avoided water runoff and water quality improvement are just some of the environmental benefits generated by tree population. Tools enable to carry out the analysis also from an economic point of view, evaluating monetary benefits brought by the green infrastructure both at present day and in the future,  taking into account climate change effects through projections based on the regional climatic model COSMO-CLM (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios).

The work led to deepen potential held by the greenspace, helping the cooperating management institution  to plan future territorial agenda and to find innovative approaches for an integrated and sustainable hazard control.

How to cite: Busca, F. and Revelli, R.: Urban Hazard Adaptation: Efficiency of a Green Infrastructure in an Italian metropolis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15461, 2021.

EGU21-13085 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Water Sensitive Cities: integrated approach to enhance urban flood resilience in Parma (Northen Italy)

Arianna Dada, Christian Urich, Michèle Pezzagno, and Giovanna Grossi

The climate change of the last half century is globally causing an increasingly in violent meteorological phenomena. Cities are experiencing the pressures of these phenomena and they are facing many challenges - economic, social, health and environmental.

Over the coming decades the population growth and the rapid urbanization will bring to a tumultuous growth of the cities that will become more and more vulnerable, especially to flood hazards.

In order to make our urban water systems more effective to these challenges new water management strategies must be developed. The complexity of this challenge calls for the integration of knowledge from different disciplines and collaborative approaches.

The concept of Water Sensitive Cities is one of the starting points for developing new techniques, strategies, policies, and tools to ensure a better liveability, sustainability, and resilience of the cities.

In this study, the DAnCE4Water model to promote the development of Water Sensitive Cities, was applied to Parma, an Italian town that faced serious water issues in the last years. Through the model the efficiency of new decentralized technologies, as green roofs and porous pavement, and their integration with the existing centralized technologies (sewerage), was estimated.

The first phase of the study concerned the analysis of the current state of the sewerage network and the relative critical issues. Flow rates and the amount of surface runoff were calculated using the SWMM modelling software.

In the second phase three hypothetical different scenarios were created by adopting different intervention strategies. The first scenario was created by using green roofs for a percentage of existing buildings in the urban area equal to 30%; the second scenario was created by adopting the porous pavement technology. For the third scenario, a possible urban development was simulated, with its consequent population, without adopting any flood risk mitigation strategy. A hydraulic study was carried out for each scenario highlighting the differences in terms of runoff formation and percentage of infiltration.

The integrated approach enables a city to test its current water management practices and policy, it helps cities to identify their short and long term goals to enhance water sensitivity, it gives a quantification of benefits and costs and it provides an estimate,  still in the design phase, of the effectiveness of possible strategies under different scenarios like climate changes, changes in the societal needs and urban changes by modelling the complex dynamics between societal system, urban environment and the urban water system.

How to cite: Dada, A., Urich, C., Pezzagno, M., and Grossi, G.: Water Sensitive Cities: integrated approach to enhance urban flood resilience in Parma (Northen Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13085, 2021.

EGU21-2514 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

The mitigation effect of urban green infrastructure (UGI) on urban waterlogging

Qifei Zhang, Zhifeng Wu, and Paolo Tarolli

With the acceleration of urbanization, the impervious surfaces of urban areas have increased dramatically, changing the natural water cycle of the city. It is of great significance for the improvement of urban living environment and the risk management of urban waterlogging to fully understand and play the positive role of UGI in alleviating urban waterlogging. This study attempts to identify the critical factors that alleviate urban waterlogging and examine the effectiveness and stability of UGI in mitigating urban waterlogging in multiple locations. We looked at two highly-urbanized Chinese cities (Guangzhou and Shenzhen) in a comparative study. The waterlogging records from 2009 to 2015 were obtained from the local water authority and the UGI was extracted from the 0.5-m resolution remote sensing images. The complex relationship between urban waterlogging and green infrastructure was quantified and compared through partial redundancy analysis and piecewise linear regression after controlling the conditions of topography, precipitation, and drainage network. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of urban waterlogging events presents a strong agglomeration effect, while the clustering pattern varies in different cities. Furthermore, after controlling the impact of elevation, rainfall, and drainage network, the area percentage and biophysical parameters of green infrastructure are the two most important factors to alleviate urban waterlogging. The influence of these two factors on urban waterlogging is consistent in different cities. This result indicates that more attention should be paid to the area size of green infrastructure and its vegetation biophysical parameters to mitigate urban waterlogging magnitude to the greatest extent. However, the area of green infrastructure must be controlled within a certain range in order to play a corresponding role in alleviating urban waterlogging. We also found that the spatial configuration of UGI also matters. Holding UGI’s composition constant, the degree of urban waterlogging can be reduced by optimizing the spatial configuration of UGI. This finding provides additional insights that the urban waterlogging can be alleviated by balancing the relative composition of UGI as well as by optimizing their spatial configuration, which is particularly important for a highly urbanized area where land resources for UGI are scarce. This study expands our understanding of the complex mechanism of UGI on urban waterlogging mitigation and provides beneficial enlightenment for the design of UGI.

How to cite: Zhang, Q., Wu, Z., and Tarolli, P.: The mitigation effect of urban green infrastructure (UGI) on urban waterlogging, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2514, 2021.

Urban water cycle suffers from ever increasing problems for what a modern city needs to prepare. The water cycle of most cities is not implemented in a sustainable way, which needs to be redesigned as a result of climate change. Through the climate change more extreme weather situations are expected to affect the life of cities. From aspect of the water cycle, this means extremely unequally distributed rainwater supply throughout the year. During drought periods, urban vegetation requires irrigation, often covered by cities with drinking water, a practice widely considered to be unsustainable. Therefore, finding appropriate methods and resources is crucial, in order to reduce the exposure of cities to the increasing climate extremes.

By collecting large amounts of rainwater and using it as irrigation water during droughts, it is possible to avoid the unnecessary waste of drinking water and to help preserve its limited supply in the future. A significant amount of precipitation flows through the surface of urban micro-catchments (e.g. roofs or other building surfaces), a significant part of which leaves the city through the sewer system without any usage.

The aim of our research is to create a rainwater harvesting potential map based on a building database in the study area of Szeged, Hungary. We used this building database to estimate the amount of rainwater that flows or evaporates on the top of buildings during a year, as well as the amount that can be considered as potentially collectable water. In addition to the GIS data, a complex meteorological database was also used.

The study was carried out in the EPA SWMM model. The building database contains nearly 20,000 building polygons, of which nearly every single polygon represents a separate catchment for this research. Based on the database, it is also possible to separate slope/pitched roof and flat roofs, which also allowed us to determine which roofs have the potential to be used as a green roofs to further facilitate efficient rainwater harvesting. Our result can be used to produce both city- and district-level (downtown, housing estate, garden house zones) summaries about the rainwater harvesting possibilities within Szeged. These results can be used to delineate areas where harvesting systems can be realistically installed. In addition to the spatial data, we can also acquire information on the seasonal distribution of the precipitation and thus the amount of collected water which can be used in drought periods.

Through our results we can get estimate the volume of rainwater that can be potentially collected from the surfaces of the building in Szeged. We believe, that our research may encourage urban planners to make into greater account the potential of rainwater storage in the local planning processes. This can greatly contribute to the decision-making processes at the local levels, and to the expansion of the knowledge related to green space-based integrated urban infrastructure management.

How to cite: Csete, Á. K. and Gulyás, Á.: Mapping of rainwater harvesting potential derived from building data-based hydrological models through the case study of Szeged, Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6431, 2021.

EGU21-6520 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Mapping river corridors at the network scale for integrating natural infrastructures into rural/urban spatial planning

Christophe Rousson, Hervé Piégay, and Guillaume Fantino

The “green infrastructure” metaphor have put a new emphasis on river spatial planning as a mean to protect fluvial corridors on the long term (Kline and Cahoon, 2010) as they provide ecosystem benefits such as flood expansion zones or better functioning ecological networks. In order to provide support data for strategic planning at the regional or national scales, we have developed automated mapping tools of fluvial corridors and floodplains based on high-resolution DEM and landcover datasets. Our goal is to characterize the continuity of fluvial corridors in the longitudinal and lateral dimensions and produce indicators on their integrity.

Following the work done by Alber and Piégay (2011) and Roux et al. (2015), we produced high-resolution detrended DEM (height maps) that support the delineation of valley bottoms, can be used for 0D flood risk mapping or to identify potential wetlands. Based on the hypothesis that fluvial processes imprint the modern landscape, even in the presence of human-driven disturbance, we have also developed a novel landcover continuity analysis method. These continuity maps provide insights on the spatial scale of river processes and the amount of space, if not natural, that is still well connected to the river and is eventually available for floodplain restoration. Finally, we explored the possibility to disseminate our results through a web platform to share the database across scales for promoting participative approaches and land use planning.

At the intersection between fluvial risks mitigation, water resource preservation, and biodiversity and landscape conservation, this strategy is rooted in the concept of “freedom of space” and unifies the concepts of greenways, waterways and floodways in a common approach to making room for the river and working with natural processes, integrating the concept of natural infrastructures that has been proposed in the 1990s (Mermet, 1993). This holistic view insists on river corridors and floodplains as multifunctional spaces. It is expected that this spatial knowledge will in turn raise awareness and encourage local authorities to better protect river corridors as green infrastructures through land planning.

Further perspectives include studying how the intended recipients of our approach, such as local authorities or river practitioners, appropriate the produced maps and information, and to what extent they contribute to an effective protection of river corridors. This understanding should prove useful to integrate such data into regional observatories and communicate a more integrative view of the river.

How to cite: Rousson, C., Piégay, H., and Fantino, G.: Mapping river corridors at the network scale for integrating natural infrastructures into rural/urban spatial planning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6520, 2021.

EGU21-10451 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Land use and cover changes related to green and blue infrastructure planning for water resources management based on a Budyko framework

Ping Yu Fan, Kwok Pan Chun, Ana Mijic, Mou Leong Tan, Omer Yetemen, and Jaivime Evaristo

Based on the interplays between land use and water resources, the green and blue infrastructure (GBI) is a central landscape approach for hydrological environment management. However, evidence-based principles of regional GBI planning are not well developed. The Budyko framework is widely used to explore water balance in land-use change studies. It provides a method to relate land use changes and streamflow variations based on two indices – the evaporative index (EI) and the dryness index (DI). Using the Dongjiang River Basin (DJ) as an example, we use the Geographically Weighted Principal Components Analysis (GWPCA) with adaptive kernels to classify the dominant land types based on local spatial variances. Then, we apply the Emerging Hot Spots Analysis (EHSA) to identify spatial-temporal hotspots of EI and DI for the Budyko analysis. From the EHSA, two wet years (1998 and 2016) and three dry years (2004, 2009, and 2018) are focused to investigate how land uses are related to water resources in different climatic conditions. On both catchment and hotspot scales, movements within the Budyko space are observed. These movements illustrate the associations between land use and hydrological response. These data-driven relationships can be used to explain the underlying mechanism of catchment forms (land surface property) and functions (evapotranspiration and runoff) for setting best practices for land use planning. Specifically, our results show that planners should consider to 1) reduce the area of croplands and trees, while increase the extent of grassland and water body on a catchment scale; and 2) increase rain fed croplands, broadleaved evergreen trees, and grasslands in the upstream catchment. Overall, this study highlights the scale considerations in land use planning, and land use strategies are developed based on reanalysis data and remote sensing products for catchment water resources management.

How to cite: Fan, P. Y., Chun, K. P., Mijic, A., Tan, M. L., Yetemen, O., and Evaristo, J.: Land use and cover changes related to green and blue infrastructure planning for water resources management based on a Budyko framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10451, 2021.

EGU21-1821 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

Practitioners can’t agree on what Nature Based Solutions for flood management is: Why this matters and how to respond

Thea Wingfield, Neil Macdonald, and Kimberley Peters

Nature Based Solutions (NBS) is a practice based approach developed in response to the global challenge of on-going environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. Interventions that restore or mimic hydrological processes to slow water within a catchment come under an umbrella term of NBS for flood management. Proponents of the practice link its use as beneficial in reducing flood risk but also climate change adaptation, urban hazard management, sustainable agriculture and eco-hydrology. Despite promising an integrated and sustainable future and receiving policy support, catchment scale adoption is limited. Understanding, designing and delivering NBS flood management is complex, crossing multiple disciplinary divides and practitioner communities, each with its own history, background, methods and uncertainties. Barriers and intervention points within the delivery system has received little investigation from the view of environmental professional practice. This research addressed this gap through participatory case studies of projects delivering NBS in England. We found low agreement amongst practitioners on how NBS for flood management is distinguished, resulting in differing perspectives on its identity and contested boundaries between it and other land and water interventions. Our transdisciplinary research project sought and generated a context for delivery that breaks down disciplinary boundaries and in doing so a new system and intervention point emerged. The problem that practitioners used NBS for flood management to address is a homogenised water cycle: reduced infiltration and increased surface runoff. Therefore NBS for flood management aims to reverse this by restoring catchment hydrodiversity in harnessing hydrological processes for integrated sustainable urban and catchment management. The implications for academic thinking and land and water management practice created by the novel conceptualisation of a catchment possessing an attribute of hydrodiversity is far reaching. In relation to supporting NBS for flood management mainstream adoption: the conceptualisation draws together different land use systems and a shared goal to deliver catchment hydrodiversity emerges enabling coordinated flood management at multiple spatial scales and across professional practice and disciplinary groups.

How to cite: Wingfield, T., Macdonald, N., and Peters, K.: Practitioners can’t agree on what Nature Based Solutions for flood management is: Why this matters and how to respond, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1821, 2021.

EGU21-3022 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

Challenges, opportunities and prospects for linking green infrastructure and the conservation of urban built heritage

Martin Coombes and Heather Viles

Green infrastructure and other nature-based solutions (NbS) offer opportunities to incorporate green elements into cultural heritage conservation and management practice in cities and unlock their associated co-benefits. There are concerns, however, about the potential negative impacts of nature on built heritage including biodeterioration, the loss of heritage values, and practical challenges for heritage conservation and management. These issues can act as barriers to the wider uptake of GI, especially in historic cities. Here, we illustrate how built heritage can benefit from GI interventions by reducing or mitigating the deterioration of heritage materials, improving the visitor experience, enhancing values, and stimulating investment. At the same time, built heritage conservation can support the delivery, connectedness, and success of GI schemes by offering additional locations for implementation, providing inspiration for closer relationships between nature and society, and enriching the benefits of GI by adding a cultural element. Better integration of built heritage into the wider GI paradigm shows great promise for strengthening and broadening these linkages in cities.

How to cite: Coombes, M. and Viles, H.: Challenges, opportunities and prospects for linking green infrastructure and the conservation of urban built heritage, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3022, 2021.

EGU21-4145 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

The importance of green roofs in an urban Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus context

Elena Cristiano, Roberto Deidda, and Francesco Viola

The modern society is facing new environmental and socio-economic challenges: population is growing fast, and it is projected to continue with this trend, reaching 9.8 billion of people by 2050, with 2/3 of them living in cities. Moreover, climate changes are leading to an increase of hot and dry periods and of short but intense rainfall events, forcing policy makers to rethink to the water management system. For these reasons, it is important to integrate in the urban planning, sustainable solutions that can help dealing with these new challenges. In this context, green roofs are powerful and flexible tools, that can play a fundamental role in the creation and development of smart and resilient cities. So far, green roofs have been generally investigated focusing on one single field at the time, following a so called “silo approach”. This approach, however, does not allow to highlight the interconnections and feedback between the different sectors, limiting the understanding of the potential of this tool. An integrated water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus approach is hence required to fully explore all the potential benefits of a large-scale installation of this tool. This work presents a review of green roofs’ benefits, following an integrated water-energy-food-ecosystem approach, with the aim to identify the potential positive impacts for the development of sustainable and resilient cities. Green roofs present multiple benefits for the urban environment, which are in line with the Development Goals proposed in the Sustainable Agenda 2030 (SDGs). Green roofs can, for example, mitigate pluvial floods, adapting to climate changes (SDG13: Climate Action) and contrasting the urbanization (SDG11: Sustainable Cities and Communities). The installation of these tools on the rooftops guarantee thermal insulation for the building, reducing the energy consumption for heating and cooling systems (SDG7: Affordable and Clean Energy). Thanks to the potential applicability of urban agriculture on its surface, green roofs can reduce the population food demand (SDG2: Zero Hunger), especially in poor countries, where many people have limited or no access to food. Moreover, the harvested rainwater, if properly stored and treated, can be reused for several domestic purposes, reducing the pressure on the water supply system and consequently increasing the availability of clean water (SDG6: Clean Water and Sanitation).The installation of vegetation in urban areas partially aims to restore the natural conditions, increasing the biodiversity and attracting different species of insects and small vertebrates, which are fundamental to guarantee maintenance of the ecosystem (SDG15: Life on Land). Moreover, the installation of this tool in an urban environment contributes to improve the mental and physical well-being of citizens (SDG3: Good Health and Well-being), which is particularly relevant in relation to the health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

How to cite: Cristiano, E., Deidda, R., and Viola, F.: The importance of green roofs in an urban Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus context, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4145, 2021.

EGU21-14284 | vPICO presentations | HS5.4.2

Benefits of low-impact development in rural areas

Kuan Lin Chou

In Taiwan, it is easy to encounter typhoons or heavy rain events with high rainfall intensity, and urban areas are prone to flooding and causing disasters. Rural areas are no exception. Flooding can cause crop necrosis. The reason may be attributed to the rural areas’s old drainage system or not yet complete drainage system, so the goal is to find the most suitable low-impact development facilities through model simulation, evaluate whether various low-impact developments are feasible, and how much flooding depth and savings can be reduced after installation. How much water is used for future irrigation as a decision-making benefit, and the scope of the setting is planned according to the flow sharing plan set by the government, hoping to provide effective improvement in rural areas.

How to cite: Chou, K. L.: Benefits of low-impact development in rural areas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14284, 2021.

HS6.1 – Remotely-sensed evapotranspiration

EGU21-13739 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1 | Highlight

Application of SVEN model to estimate evapotranspiration on a coffee plantation using MODIS and Sentinel products.

Ana María Durán-Quesada, Ioanna Pateromichelaki, Mónica García, Sheng Wang, Yolande Serra, Marco Gutiérrez, and Cristina Chinchilla

Warming conditions represent a threat to food security and livelihood in countries in which agriculture is an important share of the national income. Central America is regarded as a climate change hotspot where significant changes in temperature and rainfall have been projected. Coffee is one of the most traditional crops in the area, with Costa Rican coffee recognized worldwide for its quality. However, increasing temperatures and rainfall extremes will likely compromise coffee plantations. A similar challenge has already been faced by farmers on interannual time scales related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena, which is associated with yield disruptions and the spread of the coffee rust. A better understanding of the weather and climate dependency of coffee crops is needed to develop water use efficiency strategies for farms. To this end, the present study centers on the integration of long-term meteorological records and a set of measurements that cover the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Surface fluxes derived using the eddy covariance technique and the deployment of soil moisture sensors are combined to evaluate the performance of the Soil Vegetation Energy TraNsfer (SVEN) model. One year of micrometeorological and soil measurements in a sun-exposed coffee plantation is used to assess the skills of the SVEN model using a scheme based on MODIS and Sentinel derived products. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skills of the SVEN model to reproduce the intraseasonal seasonal and diurnal variability of evapotranspiration. Given the size of Costa Rica and the scale of the crops, satellite products are often considered of limited use. Nevertheless, given the strong need, the goal of this project is to provide a detailed evaluation of the use of these products in models and support strategies that could expand the use of satellite retrievals in areas currently considered marginal.

How to cite: Durán-Quesada, A. M., Pateromichelaki, I., García, M., Wang, S., Serra, Y., Gutiérrez, M., and Chinchilla, C.: Application of SVEN model to estimate evapotranspiration on a coffee plantation using MODIS and Sentinel products., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13739, 2021.

EGU21-13248 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1 | Highlight

CubeSats deliver daily crop water use at 3 m resolution

Bruno Jose Luis Aragon Solorio, Matteo G. Ziliani, and Matthew F. McCabe

Precision agriculture needs accurate information on crop water use (via evaporation) at high spatiotemporal resolutions. Conventional satellite missions have traditionally required a compromise between having high spatial resolution retrievals occasionally; or coarse resolution captures regularly. The development of CubeSats is relaxing the need for such a compromise by monitoring the Earth at high spatiotemporal resolutions. Here, we show the results of using Planet’s daily CubeSat imagery to derive evaporation at 3 m spatial resolution over three agricultural fields in Nebraska USA. Our results indicate that the derived evaporation estimates can provide accurate information on crop water use when evaluated against eddy covariance measurements (r2 of 0.86-0.89; mean absolute error between 0.06-0.08mm/h) and deliver new insights to enhance water security efforts and in-field decision making.

How to cite: Aragon Solorio, B. J. L., Ziliani, M. G., and McCabe, M. F.: CubeSats deliver daily crop water use at 3 m resolution, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13248, 2021.

EGU21-103 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

Inter-comparison of remotely-sensed actual evapotranspiration products in the Zayandehrud river basin, Iran

Neda Abbasi, Hamideh Nouri, Sattar Chavoshi Borujeni, Pamela Nagler, Christian Opp, Armando Barreto Munez, Kamel Didan, and Stefan Siebert

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) helps to create a better understanding of water allocation, irrigation scheduling, and crop management especially in arid and semiarid regions where agricultural areas are far more affected by water shortage and drought events. Remote sensing (RS) facilitates estimating the ET in regions where long-term field measurements are missed.  In this study, we compare the performance of free open-access remotely sensed actual ET products at eleven counties of the Zayandehrud basin. The Zayandehrud basin, one of the major watersheds of Iran, suffers from recurrent droughts and long-term impacts of aridity. The RS products used in this study are namely WaPOR (2009-2019), MOD16A2 (2003-2019), SSEBOp (2003-2019). We also merged the two products of SSEBOp and WaPOR and assessed its performance. To prepare the Merged ETa Product (MEP), WaPOR was resampled to the spatial resolution of SSEBOp. Then, the average pixel values of the resampled ETa product and SSEBOp were calculated. To compare ETa estimations over croplands in each county, maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps at annual scale (2003-2019) were prepared using LANDSAT 5, 7, and 8 images. Annual mean ETa estimations were then extracted over croplands by using annual maximum NDVI layers. We compared the RS-based ETa with reported long-term ETa values extracted from the local available literature. Our results showed a consistent underestimation of MOD16A2 in all counties. The MEP and WaPOR outperformed other products in the estimation of ETa in seven. Estimations of WaPOR and SSEBOp agreed in most of the counties. Our analysis displayed that, although MOD16A2 underestimated ETa values, it could together with SSEBOp capture the drought better than that of WaPOR and MEP in the lower reaches of the basin. Further study is needed to evaluate the monthly and seasonal performance of RS-based ETa products.

How to cite: Abbasi, N., Nouri, H., Chavoshi Borujeni, S., Nagler, P., Opp, C., Barreto Munez, A., Didan, K., and Siebert, S.: Inter-comparison of remotely-sensed actual evapotranspiration products in the Zayandehrud river basin, Iran, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-103, 2021.

EGU21-12498 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1 | Highlight

Rice water requirements: local assessment based on remote sensing data in the Lower Mondego (Portugal)

Isabel P. de Lima, Romeu G. Jorge, and João L.M.P. de Lima

Irrigated rice agriculture, which is traditionally conducted applying continuous flooding, requires much more irrigation water than non-ponded crops. This can be a constraint in areas facing water scarcity issues, where the pursue for water resources optimization requires that water use efficiency is increased. Therefore, main local challenges for rice production are often to identify and apply more favorable and efficient irrigation and crop management practices, while guaranteeing high crop yields. For this purpose, the knowledge of rice crop water requirements is an important practical consideration. However, there are usually several limiting factors to obtain relevant data for the local conditions. Several recent approaches and methodologies based on remote sensing data, such as images obtained from satellites and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), are offering attractive alternative routes to estimate crop evapotranspiration in a fast and easy way, including in rice fields.

For the rice producing area of the Lower Mondego region (Portugal), we report on exploring the usefulness of remote sensing tools for the local rice agriculture monitoring and management. Data include 25 land surface images of rice cultivated areas obtained from satellite Sentinel-2A during 2020, which together with weather data and crop parameters permits to calculate biophysical indicators and indices of vegetation water stress. Although remote sensing data available from satellite imagery presents some practical constraints (e.g. cloud cover, resolution), preliminary results from this study show that they allow to improve the characterization of the rice local cultivation conditions, therefore contributing to evaluate the impact of applying different irrigation and agriculture management practices, in particular those that have the potential to lead to significant savings of irrigation water.

This work was conducted under the umbrella of the international project MEDWATERICE (www.medwaterice.org) that focus on improving the sustainable use of water in the Mediterranean rice agro-ecosystem and aims to exploring the opportunity to apply water-saving, alternative, rice irrigation methods.

How to cite: P. de Lima, I., G. Jorge, R., and L.M.P. de Lima, J.: Rice water requirements: local assessment based on remote sensing data in the Lower Mondego (Portugal), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12498, 2021.

EGU21-12870 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

Scale analysis of evapotranspiration estimates from an energy-water balance model and remotely sensed LST

Nicola Paciolla, Chiara Corbari, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Antonino Maltese, and Marco Mancini

Remote Sensing (RS) information has progressively found, in recent years, more and more applications in hydrological modelling as a valuable tool for easy and frequent collection of geophysical data. However, this kind of data should be handled carefully, minding its characteristics, spatial resolution and the heterogeneity of the target area.

In this work, a scale analysis on evapotranspiration estimates over heterogeneous crops is performed combining a distributed energy-water balance model (FEST-EWB) and high-resolution remotely-sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST) and vegetation data.

The FEST-EWB model is calibrated on measured LST, based on a procedure where every single pixel is modified independently one from the other; hence in each pixel of the analysed domain the minimum of the pixel difference between modelled RET and satellite observed LST is searched over the period of calibration.

The case study is a Sicilian vineyard, with test dates in the summer of 2008. Meteorological and energy fluxes data are available from an eddy-covariance station, while LST and vegetation data are obtained from low-altitude flights at the high resolution of 1.7 metres.

After a preliminary calibration on LST data and validation on energy fluxes, the scale analysis is performed in two ways: model input aggregation and model output aggregation. Four coarser scales are selected in reference to some common satellite products resolution: 10.2 m (in reference to Sentinel’s 10 m), 30.6 m (Landsat, 30 m), 244.8 m (MODIS visible, 250 m) and 734.4 m (MODIS, 1000 m). First, modelled surface temperature and evapotranspiration are aggregated to each scale by progressive averaging. Then, model inputs are upscaled to the same spatial resolutions and the model is calibrated anew, obtaining independent results directly at the target scale.

The results of the two procedures are found to be quite similar, testifying to the capacity of the model to provide accurate products for a heterogeneous area even at low resolutions. The robustness of the analysis is strengthened by a further comparison with two well-established energy-balance algorithms: the one source Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model.

How to cite: Paciolla, N., Corbari, C., Ciraolo, G., Maltese, A., and Mancini, M.: Scale analysis of evapotranspiration estimates from an energy-water balance model and remotely sensed LST, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12870, 2021.

EGU21-2186 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

The role of aerodynamic resistance in thermal remote sensing-based evapotranspiration models

Ivonne Trebs, Kaniska Mallick, Nishan Bhattarai, Mauro Sulis, James Cleverly, Will Woodgate, Richard Silberstein, Nina Hinko-Najera, Jason Beringer, Zhongbo Su, and Gilles Boulet

‘Aerodynamic resistance’ (hereafter ra) is a preeminent variable in the modelling of evapotranspiration (ET), and its accurate quantification plays a critical role in determining the performance and consistency of thermal remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models for estimating ET at local to regional scales. Atmospheric stability links ra with land surface temperature (LST) and the representation of their interactions in the SEB models determines the accuracy of ET estimates.

The present study investigates the influence of ra and its relation to LST uncertainties on the performance of three structurally different SEB models by combining nine OzFlux eddy covariance datasets from 2011 to 2019 from sites of different aridity in Australia with MODIS Terra and Aqua LST and leaf area index (LAI) products. Simulations of the latent heat flux (LE, energy equivalent of ET in W/m2) from the SPARSE (Soil Plant Atmosphere and Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration), SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) and STIC (Surface Temperature Initiated Closure) models forced with MODIS LST, LAI, and in-situ meteorological datasets were evaluated using observed flux data across water-limited (semi-arid and arid) and radiation-limited (mesic) ecosystems.

Our results revealed that the three models tend to overestimate instantaneous LE in the water-limited shrubland, woodland and grassland ecosystems by up to 60% on average, which was caused by an underestimation of the sensible heat flux (H). LE overestimation was associated with discrepancies in ra retrievals under conditions of high atmospheric instability, during which errors in LST (expressed as the difference between MODIS LST and in-situ LST) apparently played a minor role. On the other hand, a positive bias in LST coincides with low ra and causes slight underestimation of LE at the water-limited sites. The impact of ra on the LE residual error was found to be of the same magnitude as the influence of errors in LST in the semi-arid ecosystems as indicated by variable importance in projection (VIP) coefficients from partial least squares regression above unity. In contrast, our results for mesic forest ecosystems indicated minor dependency on ra for modelling LE (VIP<0.4), which was due to a higher roughness length and lower LST resulting in dominance of mechanically generated turbulence, thereby diminishing the importance of atmospheric stability in the determination of ra.

How to cite: Trebs, I., Mallick, K., Bhattarai, N., Sulis, M., Cleverly, J., Woodgate, W., Silberstein, R., Hinko-Najera, N., Beringer, J., Su, Z., and Boulet, G.: The role of aerodynamic resistance in thermal remote sensing-based evapotranspiration models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2186, 2021.

EGU21-1026 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

Estimating land-surface evapotranspiration based on a first-principles primary productivity model

Shen Tan, Han Wang, and Colin Prentice

Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water and carbon cycles in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere, and is of great important in earth system science, hydrology and resource management researches. Commonly used ET estimating approaches usually contains type-based parameters, which requires calibration and associates with land cover product. Parameterization structure, representativity of training group and accuracy of land cover information all influences the performance of model extrapolation. In this study, we develop an ET modelling framework based on the hypothesis that canopy conductance acclimates to plant growth conditions so that the total costs of maintaining carboxylation and transpiration capacities are minimized. This is combined with the principle of co-ordination between the light- and Rubisco-limited rates of photosynthesis to predict gross primary production (GPP). Transpiration (T) is predicted from GPP via canopy conductance. No plant type- or biome-specific parameters are used. ET is estimated from T by calibrating a site-specific (but time-invariant) ratio of modelled average T to observed average ET. Predicted GPP were well supported by (weekly) GPP records at 112 widely distributed eddy-covariance flux sites (FLUXNET 2015 dataset), with R2 = 0.61, and RMSE = 2.73gC/day (N = 30129). ET were also well supported at site scale, with R2 = 0.65, and RMSE = 0.73mm/day (N = 30129). Global ET mapping was carried out with the help of Google Earth Engine (GEE). Basin-scale water balance validation in several globally distributed watersheds also indicates the robustness of our model.

How to cite: Tan, S., Wang, H., and Prentice, C.: Estimating land-surface evapotranspiration based on a first-principles primary productivity model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1026, 2021.

EGU21-138 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1 | Highlight

Changes in Water Use on the Lower Colorado River in the USA from 2000-2020

Pamela Nagler, Armando Barreto-Muñoz, Sattar Chavoshi Borujeni, Hamideh Nouri, Christopher Jarchow, and Kamel Didan

We studied the health and water use of seven riparian reaches of the Lower Colorado River from Hoover to Morelos Dam over the last 20-years, since 2000, to evaluate trends in the riparian ecosystem. This ecosystem has been in decline based on myriad pressures related to drought, water diversions and land use changes, such as defoliation events from the tamarisk leaf beetle, Diorhabda spp. We provide remotely sensed measurements of vegetation index (VI), daily evapotranspiration (ET, mmd-1) and annualized ET (mmyr-1). We used 250m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and 30m Landsat EVI2 time-series. We selected EVI2 to parameterize our ET algorithm and tested the ET relationship between sensors by regression approaches and found a significant correlation between EVI2Landsat and EVI2MODIS. A key finding is that riparian health and its water use between Hoover and Morelos Dams has been in decline since 2000, as measured by Landsat with daily water use dropping from 4.79 mmd-1 to 3.18 mmd-1. Our results show that over the past two decades, the average greenness (EVI2Landsat) loss was 29% and total annual ET loss was 34% (-1.61 mmd-1 or -386 mmyr-1; a drop from 1163 mmyr-1 down to 777 mmyr-1). Greenness declined on average 29%, but certain reaches declined 42% or ca. -2.28 mmd-1, or -575 mmyr-1 (Reach 6). Reach 3 showed an ET loss of 39% (-1.94 mmd-1, -410 mmyr-1). Our findings are significant because riparian plant species have declined so drastically, suggesting further deterioration of biodiversity, wildlife habitat and other key ecosystem services.    

How to cite: Nagler, P., Barreto-Muñoz, A., Chavoshi Borujeni, S., Nouri, H., Jarchow, C., and Didan, K.: Changes in Water Use on the Lower Colorado River in the USA from 2000-2020, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-138, 2021.

EGU21-104 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

Spatio-temporal changes in water demand of urban greenery

Sattar Chavoshi Borujeni, Hamideh Nouri, Pamela Nagler, Armando Barreto-Muñoz, and Kamel Didan

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and water demand of urban green spaces (UGS) remain critical, especially in water-limited cities. Measuring ET helps decision‐makers, urban planners and urban water managers formulate strategies and plans for sustainable green cities worldwide. In this study, we used three satellites, WorldView2, Landsat (OLI, TM5 and ETM+), and MODIS to measure the greenness and ET of a 780‐ha public green space, the Adelaide Parklands in Australia. Different satellite‐based vegetation indices (VIs) including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2) were assessed. The VI-based ET from these three satellites were estimated. We then validated these remote sensing-based ET with a field-based method of Soil Water Balance (SWB) using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Inter‐ and intra‐annual changes of VIs and their relevant ET were mapped and analyzed during 2010-2018. Our study, using multi-sensor remote sensing data fusion, systematic methods and machine learning techniques confirmed the suitability and feasibility of remote sensing-based ET as accurate long‐term monitoring mean for ET trends over large UGS. Our techniques rely on public and free-access satellite images, and therefore, can be adapted to other water-limited cities.

How to cite: Chavoshi Borujeni, S., Nouri, H., Nagler, P., Barreto-Muñoz, A., and Didan, K.: Spatio-temporal changes in water demand of urban greenery , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-104, 2021.

EGU21-13367 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

A correction factor for evapotranspiration prediction in urban environments using physical-based models

Alby Duarte Rocha, Stenka Vulova, Christiaan van der Tol, Michael Förster, and Birgit Kleinschmit 
Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential variable to characterise the water balance and urban heat island effect. As a combination of soil evaporation and plant transpiration, ET is highly dependent on the land cover and its surface properties. Most of the well-established physical-based models such as the ones derived from the Penman-Monteith equation focus on the atmospheric interfaces (e.g. radiation, temperature and wind speed), lacking information about the land surface. The model Soil-Canopy-Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy fluxes (SCOPE) can account for a wide range of surface-atmosphere interactions to estimate ET. However, like the majority of modelling approaches to estimate ET, SCOPE assumes a homogeneous vegetated landscape. Urban environments are highly fragmented, presenting a mix of pervious surfaces and impervious anthropogenic elements. However, information derived from high-resolution remote sensing (RS) and GIS to differentiate land surfaces is often available for medium and large cities. In this study, we analysed two urban sites with different levels of vegetation cover and imperviousness located in Berlin, Germany, both equipped with eddy flux towers. GIS data describing land surface properties were used to correct the prediction bias caused by the assumption of homogeneous vegetation by physical-based models. The correction factor increased the model accuracy significantly, reducing the relative bias of the SCOPE model using RS data from 0.74 to -0.001 and 2.20 to -0.13 for the two sites, respectively. RMSE was also considerably reduced in the two sites, from 0.061 to 0.026 and 0.100 to 0.021. At the same time, the coefficient of determination (R2) remained similar after the correction, 0.82 and 0.47 for the two sites. This study presents a novel method to estimate intraurban hourly ET using publicly available RS and meteorological data independent from the flux tower measurements. The presented method can support actions to mitigate climate change in urban areas, where the majority of the world population lives.

How to cite: Duarte Rocha, A., Vulova, S., van der Tol, C., Förster, M., and Kleinschmit , B.: A correction factor for evapotranspiration prediction in urban environments using physical-based models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13367, 2021.

EGU21-112 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

A data-driven approach to quantifying urban evapotranspiration using remote sensing, footprint modeling, and deep learning

Stenka Vulova, Fred Meier, Alby Duarte Rocha, Justus Quanz, Hamideh Nouri, and Birgit Kleinschmit

An increasing number of urban residents are affected by the urban heat island effect and water scarcity as urbanization and climate change progress. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of urban greening measures aimed at addressing these issues, yet methods to estimate urban ET have thus far been limited. In this study, we present a novel approach to model urban ET at a half-hourly scale by fusing flux footprint modeling, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) data, and artificial intelligence (AI). We investigated this approach with a two-year dataset (2018-2020) from two eddy flux towers in Berlin, Germany. Two AI algorithms (1D convolutional neural networks and random forest) were compared. The land surface characteristics contributing to ET measurements were estimated by combining footprint modeling with RS and GIS data, which included Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) NASA product and indicators of 3D urban structure (e.g. building height). The contribution of remote sensing and meteorological data to model performance was examined by testing four predictor scenarios: (1) only reference evapotranspiration (ETo), (2) ETo and RS/ GIS data, (3) meteorological data, and (4) meteorological and RS/ GIS data. The inclusion of GIS and RS data extracted using flux footprints improved the predictive accuracy of models. The best-performing models were then used to model ET values for the year 2019 and compute monthly and annual sums of ET. A variable importance analysis highlighted the importance of the NDVI and impervious surface fraction in modeling urban ET. The 2019 ET sum was considerably higher at the site surrounded by more urban vegetation (366 mm) than at the inner-city site (223 mm). The proposed method is highly promising for modeling ET in a heterogeneous urban environment and can bolster sustainable urban planning efforts.

How to cite: Vulova, S., Meier, F., Duarte Rocha, A., Quanz, J., Nouri, H., and Kleinschmit, B.: A data-driven approach to quantifying urban evapotranspiration using remote sensing, footprint modeling, and deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-112, 2021.

EGU21-9065 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

Development of a Three-Source Remote Sensing Model for Estimation of Urban Evapotranspiration (TRU)

Han Chen, Jinhui Jeanne Huang, Edward McBean, Zhiqing Lan, Junjie Gao, Han Li, and Jiawei Zhang

Evapotranspiration (ET) from an urban area and its components are important  when estimating the urban ‘heat island’ effect and the urban hydrological cycle. Multi-source satellite-based ET models for ecosystems (e.g. farmland, forest, and wetland) have been developed and applied, but satellite-based ET model dimensions for urban areas are lacking, especially since all currently available models are designed for single-source schemes. This paper proposes the first Three-source Remote sensing model for Urban areas (TRU) to discriminate between soil evaporation, vegetation transpiration, and impervious surface evaporation. TRU uses a new parameterization scheme, based on the use of a complementary relationship integrating soil surface temperature to estimate soil evaporation. An iterative procedure was developed for decomposing land surface temperature (LST) into component temperatures. Also, the ET for impervious areas was independently delineated using the “patch” approach. The model was tested for 45 cloudless days in Tianjin for 2017-2020 based on 30 m Operational Land Imager (OLI)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images. Results indicated the root mean square error (RMSE) of 38.8 W/m2 and Bias of 9.9 W/m2 compared with two Eddy Correlation (EC) observations for instantaneous latent heat (LE) simulation and RMSE was 0.087 and Bias was -0.012, compared with stable water isotope measurements for the estimation of the ratio of vegetation latent heat flux to latent heat flux (LEv/LE).Comparison with urban single-source models and two-source models for ecosystem suggest TRU provide best accuracy for ET and its components simulation. The spatial pattern suggested impervious surface evaporation exhibited minimal seasonal variation and maintained a very lower level due to limited availability of water. The results emphasized the importance of using land use and land cover (LULC) in urban ET modeling and the necessity to calculate ET as independent of impervious areas. TRU represents a groundbreaking development of multi-source urban satellite-based ET models and facilitates the mapping of urban ET components.

How to cite: Chen, H., Huang, J. J., McBean, E., Lan, Z., Gao, J., Li, H., and Zhang, J.: Development of a Three-Source Remote Sensing Model for Estimation of Urban Evapotranspiration (TRU), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9065, 2021.

EGU21-9851 | vPICO presentations | HS6.1

Comparison of seasonal evapotranspiration of temperate coniferous forests with Copernicus Sentinel-1 time series

Marlin Markus Mueller, Clémence Dubois, Thomas Jagdhuber, Carsten Pathe, and Christiane Schmullius

A changing climate accompanied by an increasing number of extreme weather events puts pressure on ecosystems around the globe. Evapotranspiration is one of the key metrics for understanding vegetation dynamics and changes in an ecosystem. Due to its complex nature, evapotranspiration is difficult to determine on a larger scale.
Existing approaches to correlate evapotranspiration measurements and radar backscatter signals were completed in boreal forests using ground-based scatterometers for short time series (several months) with much higher temporal resolution (multiple observations per hour) for small test sites. Our goal is to build upon this research to establish a broader understanding on the influences of evapotranspiration on the signal of the widely used Copernicus Sentinel-1 C-Band SAR for managed temperate coniferous forests. Variations of the observed backscatter signals (VV, VH) over several growing seasons and years (2016-2020) are investigated.
Besides wind, temperature or precipitation as some of the influencing parameters on the C-band SAR signal, we focus our analyses on the influence of evapotranspiration on the Sentinel-1 C-band signal. Therefore, we recorded long time series of Sentinel-1 data to investigate and estimate the correlation between forest evapotranspiration dynamics and SAR signal variations. For this purpose, Sentinel-1 and weather data from July 2016 to December 2020 were obtained for forested areas in the southeastern part of the Free State of Thuringia, central Germany.
We use four different weather station datasets with daily measurements to calculate evapotranspiration values following the Penman-Monteith approach and apply regression analyses to gain a better understanding about the influence on the SAR signal. To obtain regions with speckle-suppressed backscatter for in situ comparison, forest areas in a radius of five kilometers around the four weather stations are considered. For the analysis, radar datasets are differentiated in co- and cross-polarized data as well as descending and ascending flight directions. It seems also important to distinguish between frozen and no-frozen conditions as we discover strong changes in the C-band SAR signal but only minor changes in evapotranspiration values for temperatures below freezing level. Excluding frozen conditions, in situ evapotranspiration measurements and the SAR backscatter variations over four years directly correlate with R2-values up to 0.48 without any parameterization or calibration on both sides (SAR & in situ). Currently we are investigating statistical methods for in-depth analysis of the correlation between the two datasets. As the SAR backscatter signal at C-band is not a direct and sole function of evapotranspiration, future work will combine the modelling of the different influence parameters of the environment on the SAR backscatter signal and aim at quantifying their respective influence on the signal to better understand the seasonal signal variations.

How to cite: Mueller, M. M., Dubois, C., Jagdhuber, T., Pathe, C., and Schmullius, C.: Comparison of seasonal evapotranspiration of temperate coniferous forests with Copernicus Sentinel-1 time series, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9851, 2021.

Dual source energy balance models are often used in estimating and partitioning evapotranspiration between the soil and vegetation. The use of multi-angular remotely-sensed thermal data in such methods makes them susceptible to directional anisotropy (hotspot) effects that may result from the satellite’s geometry, relative to the sun, at overpass time. It is therefore important to have these effects accounted for to ensure realistic flux retrievals irrespective of sensor viewing position. At present, dual source models generally interpret surface temperature according to two sources, which may be insufficient to adequately represent the limiting temperature conditions that not only depend on the source type but also their exposure to the sun. Here, we present an extended SPARSE (Soil Plant Atmosphere Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration) scheme, wherein the original SPARSE is extended to incorporate sunlit/shaded soil/vegetation elements and coupled with a radiative transfer model that links these four component emissions to out-of-canopy radiances as observed by remote sensors. An initial evaluation is carried out to check the model’s capability in retrieving surface fluxes over diverse environments instrumented with in-situ thermo-radiometers. When run with nadir-acquired thermal data, which have no hotspot signal influence, both algorithms show, as expected, no observable difference in their retrieval of total fluxes. We nonetheless show that by incorporating the solar direction and discriminating between sunlit and shaded elements, the partitioning of these overall fluxes between the soil and vegetation can be improved especially in water stressed environments. We also test the sensitivity of flux and component temperature estimates to the viewing direction of the thermal sensor by using two sets of TIR data (nadir and oblique) to force the models and show that angular sensitivity is reduced. This is key particularly when using high spatial and temporal data from earth observation missions that inherently have to consider a wide-range of viewing angles in their design.

Keywords: Evapotranspiration, thermal infrared (TIR), Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT), temperature inversion.

How to cite: Mwangi, S., Boulet, G., and Olioso, A.: Estimating evapotranspiration from thermal infrared data : extension of the two source SPARSE model to a four source representation in order to account for the sun-earth-sensor configuration, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10895, 2021.

HS6.2 – Remote sensing of soil moisture

EGU21-9484 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2 | Highlight

The CIMR mission and its unique capabilities for soil moisture sensing

Maria Piles, Roberto Fernandez-Moran, Luis Gómez-Chova, Gustau Camps-Valls, Dara Entekhabi, Martin Baur, Thomas Jagdhuber, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Catherine Prigent, and Craig Donlon

The Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) mission is currently being developed as a High Priority Copernicus Mission to support the Integrated European Policy for the Arctic. Due to its measurement characteristics, CIMR has exciting capabilities to enable a unique set of land surface products and science applications at a global scale. These characteristics go beyond what previous microwave radiometers (e.g. AMSR series, SMAP and SMOS) provide, and therefore allow for entirely new approaches to the estimation of bio-geophysical products from brightness temperature observations. Most notably, CIMR channels (L-,C-,X-,Ka-,Ku-bands) are very well fit for the simultaneous retrieval of soil moisture and vegetation properties, like biomass and moisture of different plant components such as leaves, stems or trunks. Also, the distinct spatial resolution of each frequency band allows for the development of approaches to cascade information and obtain these properties at multiple spatial scales. From a temporal perspective, CIMR has a higher revisit time than previous L-band missions dedicated to soil moisture monitoring (about 1 day global, sub-daily at the poles). This improved temporal resolution could allow resolving critical time scales of water processes, which is relevant to better model and understand land-atmosphere exchanges and feedbacks. In this presentation, new opportunities for soil moisture remote sensing made possible by the CIMR mission, as well as synergies and cross-sensor opportunities will be discussed.  

How to cite: Piles, M., Fernandez-Moran, R., Gómez-Chova, L., Camps-Valls, G., Entekhabi, D., Baur, M., Jagdhuber, T., Wigneron, J.-P., Prigent, C., and Donlon, C.: The CIMR mission and its unique capabilities for soil moisture sensing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9484, 2021.

EGU21-4796 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

A follow-up for the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission

Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Yann Kerr, Eric Anterrieu, Francois Cabot, Jacqueline Boutin, Ghislain Picard, Thierry Pellarin, Olivier Merlin, Maria José Escorihuela, Ahmad Albitar, Philippe Richaume, Arnaud Mialon, Baptiste Palacin, Raquel Rodriguez Suquet, Thierry Amiot, Josiane Costeraste, Frederic Vivier, Jerome Vialard, Louise Yu, and Thibaut Decoopman and the rest of the SMOS-HR team

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite, launched in 2009 by ESA, has provided, for the first time, systematic passive L-band (1.4 GHz) measurements from space with a spatial resolution of ~ 40 km. SMOS data are an essential component of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) for ocean salinity and soil moisture and they are used by the CCI biomass. A specific SMOS neural network soil moisture product is assimilated operationally at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). L-band surface SM measurements have also been used to estimate root zone soil moisture, to derive drought indices, to enable food security monitoring and to improve satellite precipitation estimates. SMOS data have also been used to detect frozen soils, thin ice-sheets over the ocean and ice melting in Antarctica and Greenland.

Different studies on scientific and operational applications of L-band radiometry have shown the need of the continuity of L-band observations with an increased resolution with respect to the current generation of sensors. Resolutions from 1 km to 10 km would be a breakthrough for many applications over ocean, land and ice. One approach to obtain those resolutions could be downscaling coarse resolution data using an auxiliary dataset with higher resolution. However, using airborne data, we will show that the accuracy of the data downscaled to 1 km decreases significantly when the initial native resolution is 40 km with respect to downscaling from initial resolutions of 5-10 km. We will present two instrumental concepts to reach native resolutions of 5-10 km.

The SMOS-HR mission project, completed the Phase 0 study at the French Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) with contributions from Airbus Defence & Space and CESBIO. The goal was to ensure the continuity of L-band measurements while increasing the spatial resolution to ~10 km, which requires a typical antenna size of ~18 meters. Taking into account the difficulty of deploying a real aperture of this size in space and the successful alternative approach used by SMOS, SMOS-HR will perform aperture synthesis using an array of 230 small antennas distributed in a cross with four 12 m arms. During the Phase A study (ongoing at CNES) a mission concept with a central carrier surrounded by a swarm of nanosatellites will also be studied.

How to cite: Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Kerr, Y., Anterrieu, E., Cabot, F., Boutin, J., Picard, G., Pellarin, T., Merlin, O., Escorihuela, M. J., Albitar, A., Richaume, P., Mialon, A., Palacin, B., Rodriguez Suquet, R., Amiot, T., Costeraste, J., Vivier, F., Vialard, J., Yu, L., and Decoopman, T. and the rest of the SMOS-HR team: A follow-up for the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4796, 2021.

EGU21-7504 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

L-band soil moisture retrievals using microwave based temperature and filtering. Towards model-independent climate data records

Robin van der Schalie, Mendy van der Vliet, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Wouter Dorigo, Tracy Scanlon, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Rémi Madelon, and Richard de Jeu

The CCI Soil Moisture dataset (CCI SM, Dorigo et al., 2017) is the most extensive climate data record (CDR) of satellite soil moisture to date and is based on observations from multiple active and passive microwave satellite sensors. It provides coverage all the way back to 1978 and is updated yearly both in terms of algorithm and temporal coverage. In order to maximize its function as a CDR, both long term consistency and (model-)independence are high priorities in its development. 

Two important satellite missions integrated into the CCI SM are the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS, Kerr et al., 2010) and the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission (SMAP, Entekhabi et al., 2010). These missions distinguish themselves with their unique L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometers, which are theoretically more suitable for soil moisture retrieval than the prior available higher frequencies like C- X- and Ku-band (6.9 to 18.0 GHz). 

However, these L-band missions are lacking onboard sensors for observations from higher frequencies Ku-, K- and Ka-band, which are normally used within the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (Owe et al., 2008), the baseline algorithm for passive microwave retrievals within the CCI SM, for retrieving the effective temperature (Holmes et al., 2009) and providing filters for snow/frozen conditions (Van der Vliet et al., 2020). Therefore, the retrievals from the current L-band missions make use of temperature and filters derived from global Land Surface Models (LSM, Van der Schalie et al., 2016). For a CDR that should function as an independent climate benchmark, this is a strong disadvantage.

Within this study the aim is to evaluate the impact of replacing the LSM based input for L-band soil moisture retrievals with one that comes from passive microwave observations. We use an inter-calibrated dataset existing of 6 different sensors that cover the complete SMOS and SMAP historical record (and further), consisting of AMSR2, AMSR-E, TRMM, GPM, Fengyun-3B and Fengyun-3D. These satellites are merged together using a minimization function that also penalizes errors in the Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI) for a higher level of stability compared to using traditional linear regressions.

As currently the 6 am L-band retrievals are seen as the most reliable, and are currently the only ones used within the CCI, the main focus will be on the effects of using the 1:30 am observations from the inter-calibrated dataset as input. However, to make the method also applicable for daytime observations, the 6 pm retrievals have also been tested using an average of 1:30 pm and 1:30 am (next day) observations.   

This evaluation will provide an overview of the differences, giving insight on how this affects coverage, mean values, standard deviations and their inter-correlation. Secondly, we will test the resulting quality against both in situ observations and ERA5. A similar performance of this new dataset shows this is a good way to standardize input on temperature and filtering within the CCI SM, further improving its consistency and function as a model-independent CDR.

How to cite: van der Schalie, R., van der Vliet, M., Rodríguez-Fernández, N., Dorigo, W., Scanlon, T., Preimesberger, W., Madelon, R., and de Jeu, R.: L-band soil moisture retrievals using microwave based temperature and filtering. Towards model-independent climate data records, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7504, 2021.

EGU21-15569 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

UAS Based Soil Moisture Downscaling Using Random Forest Regression Model

Ruodan Zhuang, Salvatore Manfreda, Yijian Zeng, Nunzio Romano, Eyal Ben Dor, Antonino Maltese, Paolo Nasta, Nicolas Francos, Fulvio Capodici, Antonio Paruta, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Brigitta Szabó, János Mészáros, George P. Petropoulos, Lijie Zhang, and Zhongbo Su

Soil moisture (SM) is an essential element in the hydrological cycle influencing land-atmosphere interactions and rainfall-runoff processes. High-resolution mapping of SM at field scale is vital for understanding spatial and temporal behavior of water availability in agriculture. Unmanned Arial Systems (UAS) offer an extraordinary opportunity to bridge the existing gap between point-scale field observations and satellite remote sensing providing high spatial details at relatively low costs. Moreover, this data can help the construction of downscaling models to generate high-resolution SM maps. For instance, random Forest (RF) regression model can link the land surface features and SM to identify the importance level of each predictor.

The RF regression model has been tested using a combination of satellite imageries, UAS data and point measurements collected on the experimental area Monteforte Cilento site (MFC2) in the Alento river basin (Campania, Italy) which is an 8 hectares cropland area (covered by walnuts, cherry, and olive trees). This area has been selected given the number of long-term studies on the vadose zone that have been conducted across a range of spatial scales.

The coarse resolution data cover from Jan 2015 to Dec 2019 and include SENTINEL-1 CSAR 1km SM product, 1km Land surface temperature and NDVI products from MODIS and 30m thermal band (brightness temperature), red and green band data (atmospherically corrected surface reflectance) from LANDSAT-8, and SRTM DEM from NASA. High-resolution land-surface features data from UAS-mounted optical, thermal, multispectral, and hyperspectral sensors were used to generate high-resolution SM and related soil attributes.

It is to note that the available satellite-based soil moisture data has a coarse resolution of 1km while the UAS-based land surface features of the extremely high resolution of 16cm. We deployed a two-step downscaling approach to address the smooth effect of spatial averaging of soil moisture, which depends on different elements at small and large scale. Specifically, different combinations of predictors were adopted for different scales of gridded soil moisture data. For example, in the downscaling procedure from 1km resolution to 30m resolution, precipitation, land-surface temperature (LST), vegetation indices (VIs), and elevation were used while LST, VIs, slope, and topographic index were selected for the downscaling from 30m to 16cm resolution. Indeed, features controlling the spatial distributions of soil moisture at different scale reflect the characteristics of the physical process: i) the surface elevation and rainfall patterns control the first downscaling model; ii) the topographic convergence and local slope become more relevant to reach a more detailed resolution. In conclusion, the study highlighted that RF regression model is able to interpret fairly well the spatial patterns of soil moisture at the scale of 30m starting from a resolution of 1km, while it is highlighted that the second downscaling step (up to few centimeters) is much more complex and requires further studies.

This research is a part of EU COST-Action “HARMONIOUS: Harmonization of UAS techniques for agricultural and natural ecosystems monitoring”.

Keywords: soil moisture, downscaling, Unmanned Aerial Systems, random forest, HARMONIOUS

How to cite: Zhuang, R., Manfreda, S., Zeng, Y., Romano, N., Ben Dor, E., Maltese, A., Nasta, P., Francos, N., Capodici, F., Paruta, A., Ciraolo, G., Szabó, B., Mészáros, J., Petropoulos, G. P., Zhang, L., and Su, Z.: UAS Based Soil Moisture Downscaling Using Random Forest Regression Model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15569, 2021.

EGU21-16145 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

More than 10 years of The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) in support of EO science

Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Wouter A. Dorigo, Philippe Goryl, Raffaele Crapolicchio, and Roberto Sabia

The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN, ) is a unique centralized global and open freely available in-situ soil moisture data hosting facility. Initiated in 2009 as a community effort through international cooperation (ESA, GEWEX, GTN-H, WMO, etc.), with continuous financial support through the European Space Agency (formerly SMOS and IDEAS+ programs, currently QA4EO program), the ISMN is more than ever an essential means for validating and improving global satellite soil moisture products, land surface -, climate- , and hydrological models.

Following, building and improving standardized measurement protocols and quality techniques, the network evolved into a widely used, reliable and consistent in-situ data source (surface and sub-surface) collected by a myriad off data organizations on a voluntary basis. 66 networks are participating (status January 2021) with more than 2750 stations distributed on a global scale and a steadily increasing number of user community, > 3200 registered users strong. Time series with hourly timestamps from 1952 – up to near real time are stored in the database and are available through the ISMN web portal for free (), including daily near-real time updates from 6 networks (~ 1000 stations).

About 10’000 datasets are available through the web portal and the number of networks and stations covered by the ISMN is still growing as well as most datasets, that are already contained in the database, are continuously being updated.

The ISMN evolved in the past decade into a platform of benchmark data for several operational services such as ESA CCI Soil Moisture, the Copernicus Climate Change (C3S), the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS), the online validation service Quality Assurance for Soil Moisture (QA4SM) and many more applications, services, products and tools. In general, ISMN data is widely used in a variety of scientific fields with hundreds of studies making use of ISMN data (e.g. climate, water, agriculture, disasters, ecosystems, weather, biodiversity, etc.).

In this session, we want to inform ISMN users about the evolution of the ISMN over the past decade, including a description of network and dataset updates and new quality control procedures. Besides, we provide a review of existing literature making use of ISMN data in order to identify current limitations in data availability, functionality and challenges in data usage in order to help shape potential future modes in operation of this unique community- based data repository.

How to cite: Himmelbauer, I., Aberer, D., Schremmer, L., Petrakovic, I., Dorigo, W. A., Goryl, P., Crapolicchio, R., and Sabia, R.: More than 10 years of The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) in support of EO science, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16145, 2021.

EGU21-12449 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Validation practices for satellite soil moisture retrievals: What are (the) errors?

Alexander Gruber and the Validation Good Practice Team

In this talk, we present the results of a recently published milestone publication for the validation of global coarse-scale satellite soil moisture products (doi:10.1016/j.rse.2020.111806). It is a community effort in which validation good practice guidelineshave been developed. We provide theoretical background, a review of state-of-the-art methodologies for estimating errors in soil moisture data sets, practical recommendations on data pre-processing and presentation of statistical results, and a recommended validation protocol that is supplemented with an example validation exercise focused on microwave-based surface soil moisture products. We conclude by identifying research gaps that should be addressed in the near future. The presented guidelines are endorsed by the Land Product Validation Subgroup of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (https://lpvs.gsfc.nasa.gov) and aim to serve as exemplary work for the development of similar best practice guidelines in other communities.

How to cite: Gruber, A. and the Validation Good Practice Team: Validation practices for satellite soil moisture retrievals: What are (the) errors?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12449, 2021.

EGU21-7398 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

QA4SM – An online tool for satellite soil moisture data validation

Samuel Scherrer, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Monika Tercjak, Zoltan Bakcsa, Alexander Boresch, and Wouter Dorigo

To validate satellite soil moisture products and compare their quality with other products, standardized, fully traceable validation methods are required. The QA4SM (Quality Assurance for Soil Moisture; ) free online validation tool provides an easy-to-use implementation of community best practices and requirements set by the Global Climate Observing System and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. It sets the basis for a community wide standard for validation studies.

QA4SM can be used to preprocess, intercompare, store, and visualise validation results. It uses state-of-the-art open-access soil moisture data records such as the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) and the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) soil moisture datasets, as well as single-sensor products, e.g. H-SAF Metop-A/B ASCAT surface soil moisture, SMOS-IC, and SMAP L3 soil moisture. Non-satellite data include in-situ data from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN: ), as well as land surface model or reanalysis products, e.g. ERA5 soil moisture.

Users can interactively choose temporal or spatial subsets of the data and apply filters on quality flags. Additionally, validation of anomalies and application of different scaling methods are possible. The tool provides traditional validation metrics for dataset pairs (e.g. correlation, RMSD) as well as triple collocation metrics for dataset triples. All results can be visualised on the webpage, downloaded as figures, or downloaded in NetCDF format for further use. Archiving and publishing features allow users to easily store and share validation results. Published validation results can be cited in reports and publications via DOIs.

The new version of the service provides support for high-resolution soil moisture products (from Sentinel-1), additional datasets, and improved usability.

We present an overview and examples of the online tool, new features, and give an outlook on future developments.

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the QA4SM & QA4SM-HR projects, funded by the Austrian Space Applications Programme (FFG).

How to cite: Scherrer, S., Preimesberger, W., Tercjak, M., Bakcsa, Z., Boresch, A., and Dorigo, W.: QA4SM – An online tool for satellite soil moisture data validation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7398, 2021.

EGU21-8041 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Quantifying errors of multiple gridded soil moisture products in Sweden using triple collocation analysis and traditional evaluation method with ICOS data

Zheng Duan, Nina del Rosario, Jianzhi Dong, Hongkai Gao, Jian Peng, Yang Lu, Junzhi Liu, and Alex Vermeulen

Soil moisture is an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) that plays an important role in land surface-atmosphere interactions. Accurate monitoring of soil moisture is essential for many studies in water, energy and carbon cycles. However, soil moisture is characterized with high spatial and temporal variability, making conventional point-based in-situ measurements difficult to sufficiently capture these variabilities given the often lack of dense in-situ network for most regions. Considerable efforts have been made to explore satellite remote sensing, hydrological and land surface models in estimating and mapping soil moisture, leading to increasing availability of different gridded soil moisture products at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The accuracy of an individual product varies between regions and needs to be evaluated in order to guide the selection of the most suitable products for certain applications. Such evaluation will also benefit product development and improvements. The most common (traditional) evaluation method is to calculate error metrics of the evaluated products with in-situ measurements as ground truth. The triple collocation (TC) analysis has been widely used and demonstrated powerful in evaluation of various products for different geophysical variables when ground truth is not available.

The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) is a research infrastructure with aim to quantify the greenhouse gas balance of Europe and adjacent regions. A standardized network of more than 140 research stations in 13 member states has been established and is operated by ICOS to provide direct measurements of climate relevant variables. The ICOS Carbon Portal offers a 'one-stop shop' freely for all ICOS data products at https://www.icos-cp.eu/observations/carbon-portal. This study evaluates for the first time a large number of different satellite-based and reanalysis surface soil moisture products at varying spatial and temporal resolutions using ICOS measurements from 2015 over Sweden. Evaluated products include ESA CCI, ASCAT, SMAP, SMOS, Sentinel-1 derived, ERA5 and GLDAS products. In order to quantify spatial patterns of errors of each individual product, TC analysis is applied to different combinations of gridded products for spatial evaluation across entire Sweden. The performance of products in different seasons and years is evaluated. The similarity and difference among different products for the drought period in the year 2018 is particularly assessed. This study is expected to improve our understanding of the applicability and limitations of various gridded soil moisture products in the Nordic region.

How to cite: Duan, Z., del Rosario, N., Dong, J., Gao, H., Peng, J., Lu, Y., Liu, J., and Vermeulen, A.: Quantifying errors of multiple gridded soil moisture products in Sweden using triple collocation analysis and traditional evaluation method with ICOS data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8041, 2021.

Soil moisture (SM) products derived from the passive satellite missions have been extensively used in various hydrological and environmental processes. However, validation of the satellite derived product is crucial for its reliability in several applications. In this study, we present a comprehensive validation of the descending SM product from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced Level-3 (L3) radiometer (SMAP L3-Version 3) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) Level-3 (Version 1), over the newly established Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) within the Ganga basin, North India. The AMSR2 soil moisture product used here, has been derived using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) algorithm. Four SM derived products from SMAP (L-band) and AMSR2 (C1- and C2- and X-band) are validated against the in-situ observations collected from 21 SM monitoring locations distributed over the CZO within a period from September 2017 to December 2019, for a total of 62 days. Since the remotely sensed SM product has a coarser spatial resolution (here 9 km for SMAP and 10 km for AMSR2), the assessment has been carried out for the temporal variation of the measured values. Four statistical metrics such as bias, root mean square error (RMSE), unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R) have been used here for the evaluation. The SMAP Level-3 products are found to show a satisfactory correlation (R>0.6) compared to the other three SM product. Both the SMAP L3 and the AMSR2 C2 SM shows a negative bias, -0.05 m3/m3 and -0.04 m3/m3 respectively whereas these values are found to be 0.04 m3/m3 and 0.06 m3/m3 for C1 and X bands of AMSR2, respectively. Furthermore, the RMSE between the SMAP L3 and in-situ data is 0.07 m3/m3, which is slightly underperformed when considering the required accuracy of SMAP. This is possibly due to variation in the sampling depth along with the sampling day distribution over CZO. The AMSR2 SM products (C1-, C2- and X-bands) are found to have a higher RMSE than SMAP L3, ranging from 0.08-0.1 m3/m3. In addition, the ubRMSE for all remotely sensed soil moisture product range from 0.06-0.08 m3/m3 with the lowest value for the SMAP L3 and AMSR2 C1. The results in this study can be used further for relevant hydrological modelling along with evaluating various downscaling strategies towards improving the coarser resolution satellite soil moisture.

How to cite: Dash, S. and Sinha, R.: Validation of SMAP and AMSR2 satellite soil moisture data over the Critical Zone Observatory in central Ganga plains, North India using ground-based observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4667, 2021.

EGU21-16507 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Soil moisture assessment based on Sentinel 1/2 and in-situ data: The vineyard case study

Maria Paula Mendes, Ana Paula Falcão, Magda Matias, and Rui Gomes

Vineyards are crops whose production has a major economic impact in the Portuguese economy (~750 million euros) being exported worldwide. As the climate models project a larger variability in precipitation regime, the water requirements of vineyards can change and drip irrigation can be responsible for salt accumulation in the root zone, especially when late autumn and winter precipitation is not enough to leach salts from the soil upper horizons, turning the soil unsuitable for grape production.

The aim of this work is to present a methodology to map surface soil moisture content (SMC) in a vineyard, (40 hectares) based on the application of two classification algorithms to satellite imagery (Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2). Two vineyard plots were considered and three field campaigns (December 2017, January 2018 and May 2018) were conducted to measure soil moisture contents (SMC). A geostatistical method was used to estimate the SM class probabilities according to a threshold value, enlarging the training set (i.e., SMC data of the two plots) for the classification algorithms. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images and terrain attributes fed the classification algorithms. Both methods, Random Forest and Logistic Regression, classified the highest SMC areas, with probabilities above 14%, located close to a stream at the lower altitudes.

RF performed very well in classifying the topsoil zones with lower SMC during the autumn-winter period (F-measure=0.82).

This delineation allows the prevention of the occurrence of areas affected by salinization, indicating which areas will need irrigation management strategies to control the salinity, especially under climate change, and the expected increase in droughts.

How to cite: Mendes, M. P., Falcão, A. P., Matias, M., and Gomes, R.: Soil moisture assessment based on Sentinel 1/2 and in-situ data: The vineyard case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16507, 2021.

EGU21-496 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

A regionally explicit, global SWI calibration based on ISMN observations

Manolis G. Grillakis

Remote sensing has proven to be an irreplaceable tool for monitoring soil moisture. The European Space Agency (ESA), through the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), has provided one of the most substantial contributions in the soil water monitoring, with almost 4 decades of global satellite derived and homogenized soil moisture data for the uppermost soil layer. Yet, due to the inherent limitations of many of the remote sensors, only a limited soil depth can be monitored. To enable the assessment of the deeper soil layer moisture from surface remotely sensed products, the Soil Water Index (SWI) has been established as a convolutive transformation of the surface soil moisture estimation, under the assumption of uniform hydraulic conductivity and the absence of transpiration. The SWI uses a single calibration parameter, the T-value, to modify its response over time.

Here the Soil Water Index (SWI) is calibrated using ESA CCI soil moisture against in situ observations from the International Soil Moisture Network and then use Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to find the best physical soil, climate, and vegetation descriptors at a global scale to regionalize the calibration of the T-value. The calibration is then used to assess a root zone related soil moisture for the period 2001 – 2018.

The results are compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ERA5 Land reanalysis soil moisture dataset, showing a good agreement, mainly over mid-latitudes. The results indicate that there is added value to the results of the machine learning calibration, comparing to the uniform T-value. This work contributes to the exploitation of ESA CCI soil moisture data, while the produced data can support large scale soil moisture related studies.

How to cite: Grillakis, M. G.: A regionally explicit, global SWI calibration based on ISMN observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-496, 2021.

EGU21-9796 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

ESA CCI and C3S Soil Moisture Products: Generation and Quality Assurance

Tracy Scanlon, Wouter Dorigo, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Robin van der Schalie, Martin Hirschi, Mendy van der Vliet, Leander Moesinger, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Adam Pasik, Richard Kidd, and Richard de Jeu

Soil moisture Climate Data Records (CDRs) produced from active and passive microwave sensors are valuable for the study of the coupled water, energy and carbon cycles over land on a global scale. As part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) a multi-decadal CDR is produced by systematically combining Level-2 datasets from separate missions. The combination of individual Level 2 datasets into a single product gives us the opportunity to profit from the advantages of individual missions, and to obtain homogenised CDRs with improved spatial and temporal coverage.
The most recent version of the ESA CCI product (v06) provides 3 products: (1978 – 2020), ACTIVE (1991 – 2020) and COMBINED (1978 – 2020). This latest version of the product includes several advances that result in the improved quality of the product. Improvements to the input datasets include updated passive (LPRM – Land Parameter Retrieval Model) data to improve inter-calibration and snow / frozen condition flagging as well as updated ASCAT data from the H-SAF project to improve vegetation correction. 
Algorithmic improvements include the cross-flagging of snow / frozen conditions to take advantage of the flags provided for each input dataset across all sensors as well as the update of the Signal to Noise Ratio – Vegetation Optical Depth (SNR-VOD) regression used in gap-filling the SNR in locations where retrieval has failed. Additional data is also included through the use of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the FengYun-3B (FY3B) mission and extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) dataset used to 2015.
An operational product based on the ESA CCI SM product continues to be provided through the EU Copernicus Climate Changes Services (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). This operational product provides daily data and decadal (10 daily) aggregates in near-real-time as well as monthly aggregates for the historical dataset. The anomalies derived from this dataset (with a base period of 1991 to 2010) can be seen on the TU Wien data viewer (https://dataviewer.geo.tuwien.ac.at/).
The accuracy of each data product is assessed through comparison to in-situ soil moisture observations from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) as well as modelled data from Land Surface Models (LSMs). Such assessments are undertaken each time a new ESA CCI version is generated, and the results compared against previous versions to assess the evolution of the product quality over time. For transparency and traceability, an online portal is provided for the public to perform similar validations (Quality Assurance for Soil Moisture – www.qa4sm.eu). 
In this study, an overview of the product generation and the updates provided at ESA CCI SM v06 is presented as well as examples of how the data product has been used. The associated quality assurance requirements, assessment procedures and results will also be presented.
The development of the ESA CCI products has been supported by ESA’s Climate Change Initiative for Soil Moisture (Contract No. 4000104814/11/I-NB and 4000112226/14/I-NB). Funded by Copernicus Climate Change Service implemented by ECMWF through C3S 312a Lot 7 Soil Moisture service.

How to cite: Scanlon, T., Dorigo, W., Preimesberger, W., van der Schalie, R., Hirschi, M., van der Vliet, M., Moesinger, L., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Pasik, A., Kidd, R., and de Jeu, R.: ESA CCI and C3S Soil Moisture Products: Generation and Quality Assurance, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9796, 2021.

EGU21-1379 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Exploring trends for the H SAF ASCAT root-zone soil moisture data records

David Fairbairn, Patricia de Rosnay, and Peter Weston

Environmental (e.g. floods, droughts) and weather prediction systems rely on an accurate representation of soil moisture (SM). The EUMETSAT H SAF aims to provide high quality satellite-based hydrological products, including SM.
ECMWF is producing ASCAT root zone SM for H SAF. The production relies on an Extended Kalman filter to retrieve root zone SM from surface SM satellite data. A 10 km sampling reanalysis product (1992-2020) forced by ERA5 atmospheric fields (H141/H142) is produced for H SAF, which assimilates ERS/SCAT (1992-2006) and ASCAT-A/B/C (2007-2020) derived surface SM. The root-zone SM performance is validated using sparse in situ observations globally and generally demonstrates a positive and consistent correlation over the period. A negative trend in root-zone SM is found during summer and autumn months over much of Europe during the period (1992-2020). This is consistent with expected climate change impacts and is particularly alarming over the water-scarce Mediterranean region. The recent hot and dry summer of 2019 and dry spring of 2020 are well captured by negative root-zone SM anomalies. Plans for the future H SAF data record products will be presented, including the assimilation of high-resolution EPS-SCA-derived soil moisture data.

How to cite: Fairbairn, D., de Rosnay, P., and Weston, P.: Exploring trends for the H SAF ASCAT root-zone soil moisture data records, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1379, 2021.

EGU21-10740 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

The development and relevance of a consistent flagging strategy for multi-sensor satellite soil moisture climate records

Mendy van der Vliet, Richard de Jeu, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Tracy Scanlon, Andreas Colliander, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Wouter Dorigo, Rémi Madelon, and Robin van der Schalie

The quality of soil moisture retrievals from passive microwave satellite sensors is limited during certain conditions, e.g. snow coverage, radio-frequency interference and dense vegetation. Therefore, masking the retrievals in these conditions by data flagging algorithms is vital for the production of reliable satellite-based products. However, these products utilise different flagging methods. A clear overview and comparison of these methods and their impact on the data are lacking. For long-term soil moisture records such as the ESA CCI soil moisture products, the impact of any flagging inconsistency from combining multiple sensor datasets was not assessed.

Recently, Van der Vliet et al. (2020) provided a review of the data flagging system that is used within multi-sensor ESA CCI soil moisture products as well as the flagging systems of two other soil moisture datasets from sensors that are also used for the ESA CCI soil moisture products: The level 3 Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP). Substantial differences were detected between the SMOS and SMAP soil moisture flagging systems in terms of the number and type of conditions considered, critical flags, and data source dependencies. The impact on the data availability of the different flagging systems was shown to differ globally and especially for northern high latitudes, mountainous regions, and equatorial latitudes (up to 37%, 33%, and 32% respectively) with large seasonal variability. These results highlighted the relevance of a consistent and well-performing flagging approach that is applicable to all individual products used in long-term soil moisture data records.

Consequently, Van der Vliet et al. (2020) designed a consistent and model-independent flagging strategy to improve soil moisture climate records. For the snow cover, ice, and frozen conditions, which were found to have the highest impact on data availability, a uniform satellite driven flagging strategy was designed and evaluated against two ground observation networks. Compared to the individual flagging approaches adopted by the SMOS and SMAP soil moisture datasets, the new flagging approach was demonstrated to be a robust flagging alternative, with a similar performance, but with the applicability to the full ESA CCI historical record without the use of modelled approximations. 

A part of the designed flagging decision tree demonstrated to form a good base for the filtering of bare grounds and heavy precipitation events as well. A future extension of the flagging strategy is expected to mask these conditions, as well as other conditions such as radio frequency interference and dense vegetation.

How to cite: van der Vliet, M., de Jeu, R., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Scanlon, T., Colliander, A., Preimesberger, W., Dorigo, W., Madelon, R., and van der Schalie, R.: The development and relevance of a consistent flagging strategy for multi-sensor satellite soil moisture climate records, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10740, 2021.

EGU21-12268 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Towards an operationally capable satellite-based 0-100 cm soil moisture dataset from C3S

Adam Pasik, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, and Wouter Dorigo

Multiple satellite-based global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are presently available, these however, address exclusively the top layer of the soil (0-5cm). Meanwhile, root-zone soil moisture cannot be directly quantified with remote sensing but can be estimated from SSM using a land surface model. Alternatively, soil water index (SWI; calculated from SSM as a function of time needed for infiltration) can be used as a simple approximation of root-zone conditions. SWI is a proxy for deeper layers of the soil profile which control evapotranspiration, and is hence especially important for studying hydrological processes over vegetation-covered areas and meteorological modelling.

Here we introduce the advances in our work on the first operationally capable SWI-based root-zone soil moisture dataset from C3S Soil Moisture v201912 COMBINED product, spanning the period 2002-2020. The uniqueness of this dataset lies in the fact that T-values (temporal lengths ruling the infiltration) characteristic of SWI were translated into particular soil depths making it much more intuitive, user-friendly and easily applicable. Available are volumetric soil moisture values for the top 1 m of the soil profile at 10 cm intervals, where the optimal T-value (T-best) for each soil layer is selected based on a range of correlation metrics with in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) and the relevant soil and climatic parameters.
Additionally we present the results of an extensive global validation against in situ measurements (ISMN) as well as the results of investigations into the relationship between a range of soil and climate characteristics and the optimal T-values for particular soil depths.

How to cite: Pasik, A., Preimesberger, W., Bauer-Marschallinger, B., and Dorigo, W.: Towards an operationally capable satellite-based 0-100 cm soil moisture dataset from C3S, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12268, 2021.

EGU21-4800 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Towards the removal of model bias from ESA CCI SM by using an L-band scaling reference

Rémi Madelon, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Robin Van Der Shalie, Yann Kerr, Tracy Scalon, Richard De Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo

Merging data from different instruments is required to construct long time data records of soil moisture (SM). This is the goal of projects such as the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) for SM (Gruber et al., 2019), which uses both active and passive microwave sensors. Currently, the GLDAS v2.1 model is used as reference to re-scale active and passive time series by matching their Cumulative Density Function (CDF) to that of the model. Removing the dependency on models is important, in particular for data assimilation applications into hydrological or climate models, and it has been proposed (Van der Schalie et al., 2018) to use L-band data from one of the two instruments specifically designed to measure SM, ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellites, as reference to re-scale other time series.
To investigate this approach, AMSR-2 SM time series obtained from C1-, C2- and X-band observations using LPRM (Land Parameter Retrieval Model) were re-scaled by CDF-matching (Brocca et al., 2011) using different SMAP and SMOS official (SMAP L2 V005, SMOS L3 V300, SMOS NRT V100&V200) and research (SMOS IC V103) SM products as well as the SMAP and SMOS LPRM v6 SM data used by the ESA CCI. The time series re-scaled using L-band remote sensing data were compared to those re-scaled using GLDAS and were evaluated against in situ measurements at several hundred sites retrieved from the International Soil Moisture Network (Dorigo et al., 2011). The results were analyzed as a function of the land cover class and the Koppen-Geiger climate classification.
Overall, AMSR-2 time series re-scaled using SMAP L2, SMAP LPRM and SMOS IC data sets as reference gave the best correlations with respect to in situ measurements, similar to those obtained by the time series re-scaled using GLDAS and slightly better than those of the original AMSR-2 time series. These results imply that different SMAP and SMOS products could actually be used to replace GLDAS as reference for the re-scaling of other sensors time series within the ESA CCI. However, one must bear in mind that this study is limited to the re-scaling of AMSR-2 data at a few hundred sites.
For a more detailed assessment of the L-band data set to be used for a global re-scaling, it is necessary to investigate other effects such as the spatial coverage or the time series length. SMAP spatial coverage is better than that of SMOS in regions affected by radio frequency interference. In contrast, the length of SMAP time series can be too short to capture the long term SM variability for climate applications in some regions. The CDF of SMOS time series computed from the date of SMAP launch is significantly different to those of the full length SMOS time series in some regions of the Globe. Possible ways of using a coherent SMAP/SMOS L-band data set will be discussed.

How to cite: Madelon, R., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Van Der Shalie, R., Kerr, Y., Scalon, T., De Jeu, R., and Dorigo, W.: Towards the removal of model bias from ESA CCI SM by using an L-band scaling reference, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4800, 2021.

The dynamic processes of mass and energy exchange on the soil surface are mainly influenced by plant cover, soil physical quantities and meteorological conditions. The aims of the research were: (a) to identify spatial and temporal changes in soil moisture (SM) obtained from satellite observations and ground measurements at the regional scale and (b) to determine the temporal variability of soil moisture in the soil profile with and bare soil (reference). The study area included 9 sites in the eastern part of Poland. Agro-meteorological stations in each site allowed monitoring soil moisture (SM). Satellite SM data (time series) for the years 2010–2016 (every week) obtained from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS L2 v. 650 datasets) were gridded using the discrete global grid (DGG) with the nodes spaced at 15 km. Seven DGG pixels per each site were considered in a way that the central one (named S0) containing the agrometeorological station was bordered with 6 others (S1÷S6). The measurements of SM were performed at depths of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5 and 0.8 m once a day in April-July in plots of spring barley, rye and bare soil. The temporal dependence of the SMOS surface soil moisture was observed in S0÷S6 with the radius of autocorrelation time from 8.1 to 25.2 weeks. The smallest autocorrelation time (3 weeks ) was found in pixels with dominance of arable lands and the largest one - with dominance of wetlands (16.8 weeks) and forests (from 12 to 15.6 weeks). The autocorrelation times in S0 were much greater for ground-based SM data (11.1 to 43.1 weeks) than those for SMOS SM data. The autocorrelations enabled satisfactory predicting changes in SM forwards and backwards using the kriging method and filling gaps in the SM time series. As to ground measurements the highest autocorrelation times were in the soil below the plough layer under rye (170 days) and the lowest in the surface soil under barley and bare soil (18 and 19 days). In the plot of rye with the highest soil density the autocorrelation radius was over 1.5 months. The fractal dimensions (D0) indicated a large randomness of the surface SMOS SM distribution (D0 1.86–1.95) and the ground SM measurements (D0 1.82–1.92). The D0 values clearly decreased with the depth (from 1.7 to 1.15) in plant-covered soil while in the bare soil they did not change much throughout the profile (D0 1.7–1.8). The D0 values indicated that the temporal distribution of SM in the soil profile was more random in bare than plant-covered soil. The results help to understanding autocorrelation time ranges in surface and deeper soil and spatial changes in soil moisture depending on plant cover.

Acknowledgements. Research was conducted under the project "Water in soil – satellite monitoring and improving the retention using biochar" no. BIOSTRATEG3/345940/7/NCBR/2017 which was financed by Polish National Centre for Research and Development in the framework of “Environment, agriculture and forestry" – BIOSTRATEG strategic R&D programme.

How to cite: Usowicz, B. and Lipiec, J.: Assessment of spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture from satellite observations and ground-based measurements and their relationship with plant cover, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2138, 2021.

EGU21-4483 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Characterising recent drought events using current reanalysis and remote-sensing soil moisture products within a common framework

Martin Hirschi, Bas Crezee, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Drought events cause multiple impacts on the environment, the society and the economy. Here, we analyse recent major drought events with different metrics using a common framework. The analysis is based on current reanalysis (ERA5, ERA5-Land, MERRA-2) and merged remote-sensing products (ESA-CCI soil moisture, gridded satellite soil moisture from the Copernicus Climate Data Store), focusing on soil moisture (or agricultural) drought. The events are characterised by their severity, magnitude, duration and spatial extent, which are calculated from standardised daily anomalies of surface and root-zone soil moisture. We investigate the ability of the different products to represent the droughts and set the different events in context to each other. The considered products also offer opportunities for drought monitoring since they are available in near-real time.

All investigated products are able to represent the investigated drought events. Overall, ERA5 and ERA5-Land often show the strongest, and the remote-sensing products often weaker responses based on surface soil moisture. The weaker severities of the events in the remote-sensing products are both related to shorter event durations as well as less pronounced average negative standardised soil moisture anomalies, while the magnitudes (i.e., the minimum of the standardised anomalies over time) are comparable to the reanalysis products. Differing global distributions of long-term trends may explain some differences in the drought responses of the products. Also, the lower penetration depth of microwave remote sensing compared to the top layer of the involved land surface models could explain the partly weaker negative standardized soil moisture anomalies in the remote-sensing products during the investigated events. In the root zone (based on the reanalysis products), the drought events often show prolonged durations, but weaker magnitudes and smaller spatial extents.

How to cite: Hirschi, M., Crezee, B., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Characterising recent drought events using current reanalysis and remote-sensing soil moisture products within a common framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4483, 2021.

Soil drainage capacity is the degree and frequency at which the soil is free of saturation. It influences land use and management, soil nutrient cycling and greenhouse gas fluxes. Accurate information on drainage conditions is crucial for crop production and management and fundamental in developing strategies to adhere to environmental sustainability goals. This is particularly important in Ireland where approximately 50% of the soils are classified as “marginal”. These are mainly poorly drained soils which negatively impact plant growth and productivity.

Soil moisture acts as a proxy for drainage capacity. Timely and accurate information on soil moisture allows for precision management strategies. It aids in designing effective interventions on farms for artificial drainage works which are often assessed by information on soil moisture, soil type and hydrology. Such data are conventionally acquired by in-situ point sampling techniques which are costly and time consuming. Remote sensing has the potential to provide a solution by allowing simultaneous coverage of large geographic areas, quickly and in a cost effective manner.

This study uses optical remote sensing data from Sentinel 2 to derive information on soil moisture conditions on selected sites in Ireland.  We develop the OPTRAM model of Sadeghi et al (2017) by exploring the use of remote sensing based vegetation indices such as the Normalised Difference Vegetation index, Enhanced Vegetation Index and Normalised Difference Red Edge Index for the years 2015-2020 along with short wave transformed infrared reflectance to estimate soil moisture variations for our study areas. We show that  non-linear estimates of the wet and dry edge curves in the model are better suited for Ireland, which is dominated by wet conditions for most of the year and also identify the best vegetation indices for studying soil moisture variations.

How to cite: Basu, R., Brown, C., Tuohy, P., and Daly, E.: Characterising soil moisture regimes on poorly drained soils in Ireland using optical satellite derived vegetation indices and the OPTRAM model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3336, 2021.

Conceptual models are the most frequently used hydrological models in practical hydrological studies. These models are developed by considering the rainfall-runoff relation specific to the area of interest through a set of parameter values, which are calibrated by using the observed discharges, groundwater levels, etc. Although, it is a common practice to calibrate conceptual models by using observed run-off data, considering the direct relation of the other elements of the hydrological cycle with each other, it is expected that using as many elements as possible will enhance the capacity of the models. Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) is one of the most promising soil moisture observation methods and it has a very good potential to be used in hydrological studies due to its relatively larger horizontal footprint thus better representation of the study area. In this study, benefits of introducing CRNS based soil moisture values in the calibration of NAM model has been discussed for semi-arid basin located in Turkey. NAM model has been studied for the entire basin (421 km2) and one of its sub-basins (121 km2) by introducing the soil moisture data. Objective functions for model calibration has been defined for three cases: Discharge, soil moisture and the combination of discharge and soil moisture. The results have been discussed by using several statistical measures such as NSE, logNSE and KGE. According to the comparisons between models with different calibration properties, utilizing CRNP soil moisture reduces the difference between observation and simulation for both basins. Peak discharge values are better simulated and volume errors are significantly reduced when the combined objective function is used. For both basins, basin water storage values are well correlated with the observed and simulated soil moisture values even in the validation period. This is an indication of the closed coupling between volume storage in the root zone and measured soil moisture by CRNS in the study area.

How to cite: Akyurek, Z. and Duygu, M. B.: Improving the discharge simulation of a conceptual hydrological model by introducing Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor Based Soil Moisture Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14080, 2021.

EGU21-2188 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Joint analysis of remotely sensed soil moisture and water storage variations from satellite gravimetry

Daniel Blank, Annette Eicker, Laura Jensen, and Andreas Güntner

Information on water storage changes in the soil can be obtained on a global scale from different types of satellite observations. While active or passive microwave remote sensing is limited to investigating the upper few centimeters of the soil, satellite gravimetry is sensitive to variations in the full column of terrestrial water storage (TWS) but cannot distinguish between storage variations occurring in different soil depths. Jointly analyzing both data types promises interesting insights into the underlying hydrological dynamics and may enable a better process understanding of water storage change in the subsurface.

In this study, we aim at investigating the global relationship of (1) several satellite soil moisture (SM) products and (2) non-standard daily TWS data from the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry missions on different time scales. We decompose the data sets into different temporal frequencies from seasonal to sub-monthly signals and carry out the comparison with respect to spatial patterns and temporal variability. Level-3 (Surface SM up to 5 cm depth) and Level-4 (Root-Zone SM up to 1 m depth) data sets of the SMOS and SMAP missions as well as the ESA CCI data set are used in this investigation.
Since a direct comparison of the absolute values is not possible due to the different integration depths of the two data sets (SM and TWS), we will analyze their relationship using Pearson’s pairwise correlation coefficient. Furthermore, a time-shift analysis is carried out by means of cross-correlation to identify time lags between SM and TWS data sets that indicate differences in the temporal dynamics of SM storage change in varying depth layers.

How to cite: Blank, D., Eicker, A., Jensen, L., and Güntner, A.: Joint analysis of remotely sensed soil moisture and water storage variations from satellite gravimetry, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2188, 2021.

EGU21-13831 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

The first soil moisture reconstruction in the Mediterranean Chilean Andes region developed by tree rings and satellite observations to inform climate change impacts in South America

Álvaro González-Reyes, Alejandro Venegas-González, Ariel Muñoz, and Isadora Schneider

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in the earth surface dynamics; however, long-term in situ measurements at the global scale are scarce. In the Mediterranean Chilean Andes (MA; 30°-37°S), Sclerophyllous Forest tree species such as Belloto del Norte (BN; Beilschmiedia miersii) can grow for more than two centuries in very scarce humid lowland geographical zones. At the present work, we assess the linkages between two BN tree-ring chronologies (BML and AGU sites; 70 cores) and daily high-resolution satellite-based surface soil moisture product v201812.0 from ESA and to reconstruct past SM variations in the MA region. Our findings exhibit strong relationships between tree-growth from BML and AGU sites and the SM from 32°-34°S and 71°-73°W spatial domain, especially from February to September. We found significant r Pearson correlations of 0.85 and 0.68 during 1983-2014 (P-value < 0.001), respectively. Based on these results, we reconstructed the SM between 1800 - 2014 period using multiple linear regression. Our model retains 71.4% of the total variance and exhibits an unprecedented SM reduction since 2006 in the context of the past two centuries. This work constitutes the first reconstruction of surface soil moisture variability derived from remote sensing carried out in Chile, and can provide new information to understand current environmental changes related to the severe mega-drought period experienced in  Chile since 2010, which has provoked water conflicts, the Sclerophyllous Forest decline and browning, and the intensification of climate extreme events such as heatwaves and wildfires in the MA. 

Acknowledgments

Álvaro González-Reyes wish to thank: ANID+PAI+CONVOCATORIA NACIONAL SUBVENCIÓN A INSTALACIÓN EN LA ACADEMIA CONVOCATORIA AÑO 2019 + PAI77190101. Ariel Muñoz and Isadora Schneider thanks to the FONDECYT 1201714 and the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, FONDAP 15110009.   

How to cite: González-Reyes, Á., Venegas-González, A., Muñoz, A., and Schneider, I.: The first soil moisture reconstruction in the Mediterranean Chilean Andes region developed by tree rings and satellite observations to inform climate change impacts in South America, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13831, 2021.

The state of soil moisture is a key variable controlling surface water and energy balances. Nowadays remote sensors provide the unprecedented opportunity to monitor soil moisture at high time frequency on large spatial scales. The high spatial resolution of radar is a key element for soil moisture mapping of small hydrologic basins with strong spatial variability of physiographic and land cover properties, such as typical of Mediterranean basins. In addition, in the Mediterranean basins, soil moisture changes with strong dynamics, due to both interannual and seasonal rain variability, becoming a key term for water resources management and planning.

The new constellation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites, Sentinel-1 A and Sentinel-1B, provides images not only at the high spatial resolution (up to 10 m), typical of radar sensors, but also at high temporal resolutions (6-12 revisit days), with a major advance in the development of an operational soil moisture mapping at the plot.

Several models have been used for estimating soil moisture over bare soil surfaces from synthetic aperture radar satellites varying from physical models [e.g., the Integral Equation, the Advanced Integral Equation Model and the Integral Equation Model for Multiple Scattering, empirical models (e.g., Dubois model), and semi-empirical models. The main difficulty with SAR imagery is that soil moisture, surface roughness, and vegetation cover all have an important and nearly equal effect on radar backscatter.

In this work, the potentiality of Sentinel 1 for soil moisture retrieving in a water limited grass field have been tested using three common models for soil moisture retrieval from radar images: the empirical Change detection method, the semi-empirical Dubois model, and the physically based Fung model. For considering the growth vegetation effect on radar signal we propose an empirical model, which used simultaneously the optical Sentinel 2 images.

The case study is the Orroli site in Sardinia (Italy), a typical semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystem which is an experimental site for the ALTOS European project of the PRIMA MED program.

The 2016-2018 observation period was characterized by strong interannual rainfall variability, alternating wet and dry years, becoming an interesting opportunity for testing Sentinel 1 and 2 potentiality on soil moisture estimate in a wide range of climate conditions.

Using the Dubois model for soil moisture retrieval and the proposed model for accounting vegetation growth and surface roughness variability soil moisture was well estimated in both wet and dry conditions when compared with field observations

The unprecedented high temporal frequency of Sentinel 1 observations provides the opportunity to finally achieve operational procedures for soil moisture assimilation to guide ecohydrologic models. An operational procedure for assimilating soil moisture estimates from Sentinel 1 images in a land surface model using an Ensemble Kalman filter based assimilation scheme has been tested successfully, demonstrating the potentiality of the new generation of Satellite sensors for soil water balance predictions.

How to cite: Corona, R., Fois, L., and Montaldo, N.: The role of vegetation growth on the estimate of soil moisture in a grass field using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 observations and data assimilation , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15679, 2021.

EGU21-5003 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

The sensitivity of CRNS and Sentinel-2 products to detect differences in soil water content along a toposequence with two contrasting parent materials

Leticia Gaspar, Trenton Franz, Ivan Lizaga, Borja Latorre, and Ana Navas

Soil moisture controls hydrological processes in natural and agricultural systems. A clear understanding of their temporal dynamics and spatial variability is essential to control soil degradation processes, irrigation management and water use efficiency. In recent years, the measurement of soil water content (SWC) with ground-based neutron sensors and remote sensing products have become promising non-invasive methods for different spatial scales. In this study, we are investigating the sensitivity of using cosmic ray neutron sensor (CRNS) and Sentinel-2 SWC index for quantifying different dynamics of soil moisture along a toposequence with underlying contrasting parent materials. For this study, three sites were selected in the upper section (US) soils on limestones correspond to Muschelkalk facies, and another three in the lower section (LS) siliciclastic materials composed of low-permeability marls and claystone formation with primarily silty clay texture (Keuper facies). During two surveys, which correspond to wet (spring 2018/05/05) and dry conditions (summer 2018/08/05), a set of soil moisture data were obtained by using i) portable CRNS backpack, ii) satellite-based information and iii) HS200 sensor Delta-T Devices. The physical composition of the studied soils reflects the clear difference in parent material, with mean content of soil organic carbon of 6% in US against 1% in LW, while the mean clay content was lower in US (21%) than in LS (26%). The infiltration measurements also show different responses for water infiltration capacity, with a much higher mean value of hydraulic conductivity for the soils in the US (317 mm per day), reflecting the karst features, than in the LS (35 mm per day) corresponding to the siliciclastic materials. Our results show similar trends during the two surveys, obtaining significantly lower soil water content on limestones at the US where infiltration processes prevailed thus facilitating leaching and limiting runoff. In contrast, the higher soil water content was on siliciclastic soils at the LS where the low permeability of soils due to the clayed substrate promoted increased runoff. Focusing on the comparison of soil moisture data obtained during the wet and dry surveys, a soil characteristic dependency is observed, with a more different soil moisture state on siliciclastic soils (LS) between the two surveys than for the soils on limestones. Our preliminary results pinpoint that CRNS, Sentinel-2 index and field data captured soil moisture dynamics along the toposequence and demonstrated the sensitivity of neutron sensors and remote sensing products to investigate the effect of parent material on soil water content at sampling scale.

How to cite: Gaspar, L., Franz, T., Lizaga, I., Latorre, B., and Navas, A.: The sensitivity of CRNS and Sentinel-2 products to detect differences in soil water content along a toposequence with two contrasting parent materials, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5003, 2021.

EGU21-9639 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Toward Self-calibrated SM2RAIN-based rainfall product 

Paolo Filippucci, Luca Brocca, Angelica Tarpanelli, Christian Massari, Wolfgang Wagner, and Carla Saltalippi

Reliable and detailed precipitation measurements are fundamental in many hydrological and hydraulic applications. In-situ measurements are the traditional source of this information, but the declining number of stations worldwide, the low spatial representativeness and the problems in data access, limit their relevance. In the last years, satellite products have been used to fill the gap of the ground data.

The estimation of precipitation by satellites can be conceptualized via two different  approaches: the top-down approach, where the rainfall is estimated by exploiting the electromagnetic properties of clouds, and the bottom-up approach, where rainfall is indirectly obtained by exploiting the inversion of the water balance equation once soil moisture observations are observed by satellites. SM2RAIN algorithm [Brocca et al., 2014] belongs to the second methodology and has distinguished itself to provide accurate rainfall estimation, particularly in regions characterized by low density of rainfall gauges; however, the use of SM2RAIN relies upon a calibration dataset which represents  a main limitation for its applicability.

In this study, starting from the kwowledge of Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture, topography and climatology of each pixel of land surface, a methodology for the application of SM2RAIN without using observed rainfall time series for calibration is proposed. Four parametric relationships dependent from physical descriptors of each pixel are developed by using 1009 points uniformly distributed in Australia, India, Italy and the United States, allowing the estimation of SM2RAIN parameter values- A global validation of the methodology is conducted by comparing the performance of the parametrized product against those of a calibrated SM2RAIN product. The Final Run version of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) is used for the performance assessment, together with triple collocation techniques against gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) product and the Early Run version of IMERG.

The approach was also applied to a high resolution (~1 km) Soil Moisture product over test regions in Italy and Austria obtaining promising results and showing that good quality rainfall estimates at 1 km of spatial resolution can be obtained also without calibration.

How to cite: Filippucci, P., Brocca, L., Tarpanelli, A., Massari, C., Wagner, W., and Saltalippi, C.: Toward Self-calibrated SM2RAIN-based rainfall product , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9639, 2021.

The estimation of superficial soil moisture is performed with a Change Detection (CD) method applied over an agricultural area in Spain, in the basin of the Duero river. The CD method is applied on Sentinel-1 SAR images over a time period of three years. For the period  and area of interest are available in situ soil moisture measurments of the REMEDHUS network belonging to the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). Two years of data are used for the calibration procedure (2018 and 2019), one year (2020) for validation purposes.
According to the Corine Land Cover classification of 2018, the agricultural area is mainly coverd by low vegetation. The backscatterd SAR signal is indeed modelled as the inchoerent sum of the volumetric contribution of the canopy, and the soil attenuated contribution.
The Sentinel-1 VH polarized band is used for the classification of the areas with homogeneous volumetric contribution, where the condition of constant vegetation contribution is respected in order to apply the CD method. Furthermore, those areas will be identified exploiting the bimodal distribution of the VH band histogram in the upper phase of the vegetative stage of the crop.
The soil roughness contribution to the superficial component of the backscattered signal couldn’t be neglected due to agricultural practices such as tillage and harvesting. Furthermore the data are processed at a very high resolution, in order to exploit the full spatial resolution of the SAR data. The VV polarized band will be used to identify the variations of the SAR signal due to changes in the soil roughness, and time periods with constant roughness contribution will be identified in order to apply the CD method. It is expected that the variations of the VV backscattering coefficient due to changes in soil roughness are higher than the ones caused by soil moisture changes, except for meteoric events.
The CD is thus applied on areas and time intervals where only soil moisture content is supposed to vary, and the maximum variation is calculated in each time interval. Finally, the calculation of the soil moisture is performed by scaling the maximum difference of SAR signal with the maximum difference of the in situ data.
In previous studies performed on the same area, a SAR vegetation index was used to classify homogeneous volumetric contribution, and soil rougness was neglected. Even if the trend of the solution fits well the precipitation events and the trend of the in situ data (RMSE=0.096m3/m3, R=0.583m3/m3), the results presented singularities. The above presented method for the superficial soil moisture calculation is expected to smooth the singularities present in the results of our previous studies.

How to cite: Graldi, G. and Vitti, A.: Exploiting Sentinel-1 polarized data for the classification of areas and time intervals where coherently apply a change detection method for the retrieval of superficial soil moisture at the field scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4458, 2021.

EGU21-4537 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Improved soil moisture estimation with Sentinel-1 for arable land at the field scale

John Beale, Toby Waine, Ron Corstanje, and Jonathan Evans

The change detection method of multi-temporal analysis is often used to estimate surface soil moisture from Sentinel-1 SAR data. The underlying assumptions that vegetation cover and soil surface roughness vary significantly more slowly with time than soil moisture are problematic in areas under cultivation, which are characterised by seasonal cycles of rapid crop growth, senescence, harvesting and tillage. The issue becomes more acute when data is processed at the field scale. Other areas, where the vegetation cover is persistently high, also exhibit poor sensitivity of SAR backscatter to soil moisture. In general, the mean absolute error appears to be related to the relative fractions of photosynthetically active and inactive vegetation, and bare soil. Optical indices derived from Sentinel-2 data may be used with spectral unmixing to estimate these fractions as time series at field scale. Combined with knowledge of land use, confidence levels may be assigned to each field. The soil moisture may then be estimated by two dimensional interpolation using inverse distance squared weighting across a range of neighbouring fields within a local zone.  During the peak growing season, the mean absolute error in the soil moisture estimate for wheat fields is significantly reduced, in one example from around 20% volumetric water content to less than 5%. This will benefit users of such products in agriculture, for example, in determining actual soil moisture deficit in the growing season.

How to cite: Beale, J., Waine, T., Corstanje, R., and Evans, J.: Improved soil moisture estimation with Sentinel-1 for arable land at the field scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4537, 2021.

EGU21-5849 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

High-resolution root zone soil moisture-based indices for drought monitoring in the Ebro basin

Vivien-Georgiana Stefan, Maria-José Escorihuela, and Pere Quintana-Seguí

Agriculture is an important factor on water resources, given the constant population growth and the strong relationship between water availability and food production. In this context, root zone soil moisture (RZSM) measurements are used by modern irrigators in order to detect the onset of crop water stress and to trigger irrigations. Unfortunately, in situ RZSM measurements are costly; combined with the fact they are available only over small areas and that they might not be representative at the field scale, remote sensing is a cost-effective approach for mapping and monitoring extended areas. A recursive formulation of an exponential filter was used in order to derive 1 km resolution RZSM estimates from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) surface soil moisture (SSM) over the Ebro basin. The SMAP SSM was disaggregated to a 1 km resolution by using the DISPATCH (DISaggregation based on a Physical And Theoretical scale CHange) algorithm. The pseudodiffusivity parameter of the exponential filter was calibrated per land cover type, by using ISBA-DIF (Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere) surface and root zone soil moisture data as an intermediary step. The daily 1 km RZSM estimates were then used to derive 1 km drought indices such as soil moisture anomalies and soil moisture deficit indices (SMDI), on a weekly time-scale, covering the entire 2020 year. Results show that both drought indices are able to capture rainfall and drying events, with the weekly anomaly being more responsive to sudden events such as heavy rainfalls, while the SMDI is slower to react do the inherent inertia it has. Moreover, a quantitative comparison with drought indices derived from a model-based RZSM estimates has also been performed, with results showing a strong correspondence between the different indices. For comparison purposes, the weekly soil moisture anomalies and SMDI derived using 1 km SMAP-derived SSM were also estimated. The analysis shows that the anomalies and SMDI based on the RZSM are more representative of the hydric stress level of the plants, given that the RZSM is better suited than the SSM to describe the moisture conditions at the deeper layers, which are the ones used by plants during growth and development.

The study provides an insight into obtaining robust, high-resolution remote-sensing derived drought indices based on remote-sensing derived RZSM estimates. The 1 km resolution proves an improvement from other currently available drought indices, such as the European Drought Observatory’s 5 km resolution drought index, which is not able to capture as well the spatial variability present within heterogeneous areas. Moreover, the SSM-derived drought indices are currently used in a drought observatory project, covering a region in the Tarragona province of Catalonia, Spain. The project aims at offering irrigation recommendations to water agencies, and the introduction of RZSM-derived drought indices will further improve such advice.

How to cite: Stefan, V.-G., Escorihuela, M.-J., and Quintana-Seguí, P.: High-resolution root zone soil moisture-based indices for drought monitoring in the Ebro basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5849, 2021.

EGU21-7582 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

High-resolution near-surface soil moisture through the combination of Sentinel-1 and Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe in a Mediterranean agroforestry

Aida Taghavi Bayat, Sarah Schönbrodt-Stitt, Paolo Nasta, Nima Ahmadian, Christopher Conrad, Heye R. Bogena, Harry Vereecken, Jannis Jakobi, Roland Baatz, and Nunzio Romano

The precise estimation and mapping of the near-surface soil moisture (~5cm, SM5cm) is key to supporting sustainable water management plans in Mediterranean agroforestry environments. In the past few years, time series of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data retrieved from Sentinel-1 (S1) enable the estimation of SM5cm at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. The present study focuses on developing a reliable and flexible framework to map SM5cm in a small-scale agroforestry experimental site (~30 ha) in southern Italy over the period from November 2018 to March 2019. Initially, different SAR-based polarimetric parameters from S1 (in total 62 parameters) and hydrologically meaningful topographic attributes from a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were derived. These SAR and DEM-based parameters, and two supporting point-scale estimates of SM5cm were used to parametrize a Random Forest (RF) model. The inverse modeling module of the Hydrus-1D model enabled to simulate two  supporting estimates of SM5cm by using i) sparse soil moisture data at the soil depths of 15 cm and 30 cm acquired over 20 locations comprised in a SoilNet wireless sensor network (SoilNet-based approach), and ii) field-scale soil moisture monitored by a Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe (CRNP-based approach). In the CRNP-based approach, the field-scale SM5cm was further downscaled to obtain point-scale supporting SM5cm data over the same 20 positions by using the physical-empirical Equilibrium Moisture from Topography (EMT) model. Our results show that the CRNP-based approach can provide reasonable SM5cm retrievals with RMSE values ranging from 0.034 to 0.050 cm³ cm-3 similar to the ones based on the SoilNet approach ranging from 0.029 to 0.054 cm³ cm-3. This study highlights the effectiveness of integrating S1 SAR-based measurements, topographic attributes, and CRNP data for mapping SM5cm at the small agroforestry scale with the advantage of being non-invasive and easy to maintain.

 

How to cite: Taghavi Bayat, A., Schönbrodt-Stitt, S., Nasta, P., Ahmadian, N., Conrad, C., Bogena, H. R., Vereecken, H., Jakobi, J., Baatz, R., and Romano, N.: High-resolution near-surface soil moisture through the combination of Sentinel-1 and Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe in a Mediterranean agroforestry, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7582, 2021.

Soil moisture content is an important hydrological and climatic variable with applications in a wide range of domains. The high spatial variability of soil moisture cannot be well captured from conventional point-based in-situ measurements. Remote sensing offers a feasible way to observe spatial pattern of soil moisture from regional to global scales. Microwave remote sensing has long been used to estimate Surface Soil Moisture Content (SSMC) at lower spatial resolutions (>1km), but few accurate options exist in the higher spatial resolution (<1km) domain. This study explores the capabilities of deep learning in the high-resolution domain of remotely sensed SSMC by using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to estimate SSMC from Sentinel-1 acquired Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. The developed model incorporates additional SSMC predictors such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, and soil type to yield a more accurate estimation than traditional empirical formulas that focus solely on the conversion of backscatter signals to relative soil moisture. This also makes the developed model less sensitive to site-specific conditions and increases the model applicability outside the training domain. The model is developed and tested with in-situ soil moisture measurements in Denmark from a dense network maintained by HOBE (Danish Hydrological Observatory). The unique advantage of the developed model is its transferability across climate zones, which has been historically absent in many prior models. This would open up opportunities for high-resolution soil moisture mapping through remote sensing in areas with relatively few soil moisture gauges. A reliable high-resolution soil moisture platform at good temporal resolution would allow for more precise erosion modelling, flood forecasting, drought monitoring, and precision agriculture.

How to cite: Simonsen, N. and Duan, Z.: Development of a deep learning-based method for estimating surface soil moisture at high spatial resolution from Sentinel-1 satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9493, 2021.

EGU21-9703 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Spaceborne GNSS Reflectometry for soil moisture using data from CYGNSS mission: results in the Contiguous United States

Paulo de Tarso Setti Junior and Tonie van Dam

Soil moisture is an essential climate variable, influencing geophysical and hydrological processes such as vegetation and agriculture, land-atmosphere circulation, and drought development. It is possible to remotely sense soil moisture based on the dielectric constant of soil at microwave frequencies. Low earth orbit (LEO) satellites are capable of receiving Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals reflected off the surface of the Earth to infer properties of the reflecting surface itself, in a technique known as GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R). However, converting surface reflectivity derived from GNSS-R into soil moisture is not straightforward. Reflectivity is influenced by other factors such as the vegetation optical depth and the soil roughness around the specular reflection. The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a mission from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) consisting of eight small GNSS-R satellites with the primary objective of measuring wind speed in hurricanes and tropical cyclones. The satellites were launched in December 2016 in a 35° inclination orbit, and the measurements are made of reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) L1 (1.575 GHz) navigation signals. Reflections over land can be used to estimate soil moisture in the upper 5 cm of soil surface if they are correctly treated and modelled. In this work, we use three years of observations from CYGNSS mission (March 2017 - March 2020) to compute surface reflectivity over land assuming coherent reflections. Using linear regression models and ancillary information from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission (soil moisture, vegetation optical depth, and roughness coefficient), these reflectivity observations are then used to estimate soil moisture. Retrievals are compared with observations from 44 in-situ soil moisture stations from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) in the Contiguous United States (CONUS), presenting in most of the cases a good agreement. Results are also correlated with vegetation optical depth, surface roughness, and topographic relief around the in-situ stations. In addition, some challenges regarding soil moisture estimation using spaceborne GNSS-R data are presented and discussed.

How to cite: Setti Junior, P. D. T. and van Dam, T.: Spaceborne GNSS Reflectometry for soil moisture using data from CYGNSS mission: results in the Contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9703, 2021.

EGU21-10312 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

A roadmap for high-resolution satellite soil moisture applications

Jian Peng, Clement Albergel, Anna Balenzano, Luca Brocca, Olive Cartus, Michael H. Cosh, Wade T. Crow, Katarzyna Dabrowska-Zielinska, Simon Dadson, Malcolm W.J. Davidson, Patricia de Rosnay, Wouter Dorigo, Alexander Gruber, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Hirschi, Yann H. Kerr, Francesco Lovergine, Miguel D. Mahecha, Philip Marzahn, and Francesco Mattia and the rest of the team

This contribution presents the main findings of a recently published review on high-resolution satellite soil moisture applications (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.112162). The scientific community has made significant progress in estimating soil moisture from satellite-based Earth observation data, particularly in operationalizing coarse-resolution (25-50 km) soil moisture products. This presentation summarizes existing applications of satellite-derived soil moisture products and identifies gaps between the characteristics of currently available soil moisture products and the application requirements from various disciplines. This presentation also discusses the efforts devoted to the generation of high-resolution soil moisture products from satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data such as Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations and through downscaling of existing coarse-resolution microwave soil moisture products. Open issues and future opportunities of soil moisture remote sensing are discussed, providing guidance for the further development of operational soil moisture products and for bridging the gap between the soil moisture user and supplier communities.

The published review is:

Peng, J., Albergel, C., Balenzano, A., Brocca, L., Cartus, O., Cosh, M.H., Crow, W.T., Dabrowska-Zielinska, K., Dadson, S., Davidson, M.W.J., de Rosnay, P., Dorigo, W., Gruber, A., Hagemann, S., Hirschi, M., Kerr, Y.H., Lovergine, F., Mahecha, M.D., Marzahn, P., Mattia, F., Musial, J.P., Preuschmann, S., Reichle, R.H., Satalino, G., Silgram, M., van Bodegom, P.M., Verhoest, N.E.C., Wagner, W., Walker, J.P., Wegmüller, U., & Loew, A. (2021). A roadmap for high-resolution satellite soil moisture applications – confronting product characteristics with user requirements. Remote Sensing of Environment, 252, 112162

How to cite: Peng, J., Albergel, C., Balenzano, A., Brocca, L., Cartus, O., Cosh, M. H., Crow, W. T., Dabrowska-Zielinska, K., Dadson, S., Davidson, M. W. J., de Rosnay, P., Dorigo, W., Gruber, A., Hagemann, S., Hirschi, M., Kerr, Y. H., Lovergine, F., Mahecha, M. D., Marzahn, P., and Mattia, F. and the rest of the team: A roadmap for high-resolution satellite soil moisture applications, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10312, 2021.

EGU21-12826 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Estimating the best spatial resolution of remotely sensed surface soil moisture based on their uncertainty 

Theresa C. van Hateren, Marco Chini, Patrick Matgen, Luca Pulvirenti, Nazzareno Pierdicca, and Adriaan J. Teuling

Validation of remotely sensed soil moisture is a well-known issue. Reference data with the correct spatial and temporal resolution on large scales are sparse and lack spatial representativeness. Moreover, due to the heterogeneity of soil moisture in both space and time, even reference data cannot be considered to be “ground truth”. As such, uncertainties are difficult to quantify. Additionally, in remotely sensed soil moisture there are trade-offs between spatial resolution and temporal resolution, resolution and accuracy, and resolution and computing time. Here, we try to identify the best spatial resolution for Sentinel-1 based soil moisture estimation, considering the trade-off between product resolution and accuracy. We use the uncertainty  of the soil moisture estimate as a guide parameter, and focus on how product accuracy depends on factors as soil wetness, and characteristics of the vegetated canopy.  To this end, we compare Sentinel-1 soil moisture estimates to both in situ data and global reference data sets with a lower spatial resolution. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture data were obtained by applying the MULESME algorithm  (Pulvirenti et al., 2018) on Sentinel-1 data throughout 2020. An extensive field campaign was performed, where TDR data and volumetric soil samples were gathered. A nearby setup of permanent soil moisture probes additionally provided continuous measurements of soil moisture at different depths, from 10 to 60 centimetres. Global datasets were obtained from the SMOS satellite constellation, GLDAS, MERRA-2 and ESA CCI.

Pulvirenti, L., Squicciarino, G., Cenci, L., Boni, G., Pierdicca, N., Chini, M., Versace, P. & Campanella, P. (2018). A surface soil moisture mapping service at national (Italian) scale based on Sentinel-1 data. Environmental Modelling & Software, 102, 13-28.

How to cite: van Hateren, T. C., Chini, M., Matgen, P., Pulvirenti, L., Pierdicca, N., and Teuling, A. J.: Estimating the best spatial resolution of remotely sensed surface soil moisture based on their uncertainty , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12826, 2021.

EGU21-14049 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Evaluation of multiple soil moisture products using in-situ observations over China

Huiqing Li, Aizhong Ye, Yuhang Zhang, and Wenwu Zhao

Soil moisture (SM), a vital variable in the climate system, is applied in many fields. But the existing SM data sets from different sources have great uncertainty, hence need comprehensive verification. In this study, we collected and evaluated ten latest commonly used SM products over China, including four reanalysis data (ERA-Interim, ERA5, NCEP R2 and CFSR/CFSV2), three land surface model products (GLDAS 2.1 Noah, CLSM and VIC) and three remote sensing products (ESA CCI ACTIVE, COMBINED and PASSIVE). These products in their overlap period (2000-2018) were inter-compared in spatial and temporal variation. In addition, their accuracy was verified by a large quantity of in-situ observations. The results show that the ten SM products have roughly similar spatial patterns and small inter-annual differences, but there are still some deviations varying in regions and products. ERA5 displays the most encouraging overall performance in China. The estimates of SM in the northwest of China among all products generally perform poorly on capturing in-situ SM variability due to less coverage of observations. CLSM and ERA5 have a satisfactory correlation coefficient with the observed SM (R>0.7) in the northeast and south of China, respectively. ESA CCI ACTIVE performs with the optimal mean Equitable Threat Score (ETS) value, which indicates the promising ability to drought assessment, followed by CFSR/CFSV2 and ERA5. Specifically, ESA CCI ACTIVE expresses higher ETS in the Yellow River Basin, while CFSR/CFSV2 and ERA5 are more applicable in most areas of the eastern China. This study provides a reasonable reference for the application of SM products in China.

How to cite: Li, H., Ye, A., Zhang, Y., and Zhao, W.: Evaluation of multiple soil moisture products using in-situ observations over China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14049, 2021.

EGU21-15123 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Inter-comparison of GNSS-Reflectometry measurements from CYGNSS and Spire’s satellites with SMAP soil moisture product

Vahid Freeman, Philip Jales, Stephan Esterhuizen, Vladimir Irisov, Jessica Cartwright, and Dallas Masters

The potential of space-borne GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique for soil moisture retrieval has been demonstrated in recent studies using observations from the NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) and the UK’s Technology Demonstration Satellite, TechDemoSat (TDS-1).

Spire Global operates a constellation of CubeSats performing GNSS based science and Earth observation. In December 2019, Spire launched two new satellites with GNSS-R payloads with plans to launch two more follow-on GNSS-R missions in January 2021. In this study, we highlight the capabilities of the Spire’s current and future GNSS-R missions compared to CYGNSS for global soil moisture monitoring and present the results of an inter-comparison between CYGNSS and Spire GNSS-R observables over land with NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations. The comparison of level-1 data and various statistical parameters was performed after data collocation both trackwise and also within a 6km regular grid. The results of the study were used for intercalibration of CYGNSS and Spire’s GNSS-R measurements for developing a combined GNSS-R soil moisture product.

How to cite: Freeman, V., Jales, P., Esterhuizen, S., Irisov, V., Cartwright, J., and Masters, D.: Inter-comparison of GNSS-Reflectometry measurements from CYGNSS and Spire’s satellites with SMAP soil moisture product, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15123, 2021.

EGU21-15586 | vPICO presentations | HS6.2

Soil moisture estimation from high-resolution UASs imagery based on machine learning approaches for land cover classification

Teresa Pizzolla, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Ruodan Zhuang, Alonso Pizarro, and Salvatore Manfreda

Soil moisture (SM) is an essential variable in the earth system as it influences water, energy and, carbon fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. The SM spatio-temporal variability requires detailed analyses, high-definition optics and fast computing approaches for near real-time SM estimation at different spatial scales. Remote Sensing-based Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) represents the actual solution providing low-cost approaches to meet the requirements of spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions [1; 3; 4]. In this context, a proper land use classification is crucial in order to discriminate the behaviors of vegetation and bare soil in such high-resolution imagery. Therefore, high-resolution UASs-based imagery requires a specific images classification approach also considering the illumination conditions. In this work, the land use classification was carried out using a methodology based on a combined machine learning approaches: k-means clustering algorithm for removing shadow pixels from UASs images and, binary classifier for vegetation filtering. This approach led to identifying the bare soil on which SM estimation was computed using the Apparent Thermal Inertia (ATI) method [2]. The estimated SM values were compared with field measurements obtaining a good correlation (R2 = 0.80). The accuracy of the results shows good reliability of the procedure and allows extending the use of UASs also in unclassified areas and ungauged basins, where the monitoring of the SM is very complex.

References

[1] Manfreda, S., McCabe, M.F., Miller, P.E., Lucas, R., Pajuelo Madrigal, V., Mallinis, G., Ben Dor, E., Helman, D., Estes, L., Ciraolo, G., et al. On the Use of Unmanned Aerial Systems for Environmental Monitoring, Remote Sensing, 2018, 10, 641.

[2] Minacapilli, M., Cammalleri, C., Ciraolo, G., D’Asaro, F., Iovino, M., and Maltese, A. Thermal Inertia Modeling for Soil Surface Water Content Estimation: A Laboratory Experiment. Soil. Sci. Soc. Amer. J. 2012, vol.76, n.1, pp. 92–100

[3] Paruta, A., P. Nasta, G. Ciraolo, F. Capodici, S. Manfreda, N. Romano, E. Bendor, Y. Zeng, A. Maltese, S. F. Dal Sasso and R. Zhuang, A geostatistical approach to map near-surface soil moisture through hyper-spatial resolution thermal inertia, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2020.

[4] Petropoulos, G.P., A. Maltese, T. N. Carlson, G. Provenzano, A. Pavlides, G. Ciraolo, D. Hristopulos, F. Capodici, C. Chalkias, G. Dardanelli, S. Manfreda, Exploring the use of UAVs with the simplified “triangle” technique for Soil Water Content and Evaporative Fraction retrievals in a Mediterranean setting, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2020.

How to cite: Pizzolla, T., Dal Sasso, S. F., Zhuang, R., Pizarro, A., and Manfreda, S.: Soil moisture estimation from high-resolution UASs imagery based on machine learning approaches for land cover classification, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15586, 2021.

HS6.3 – Remote sensing of seasonal snow

EGU21-9971 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Cross-validation of microwave snowfall products over the continental United States

Kamil Mroz, Mario Montopoli, Giulia Panegrossi, Luca Baldini, Alessandro Battaglia, and Pierre Kirstetter

In this talk, surface snowfall rate estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission’s Core Observatory sensors and the CloudSat radar are compared to those from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar composite product over the continental United States. The analysis spans a period between Nov. 2014 and Sept. 2020 and covers the following products: the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar product (2A.GPM.DPR) and its single frequency counterparts (2A.GPM.Ka, 2A.GPM.Ku); GPM Combined Radar Radiometer Algorithm (2B.GPM.DPRGMI.CORRA); the CloudSat Snow Profile product (2C-SNOW-PROFILE) and two passive microwave retrievals i.e. the Goddard PROFiling algorithm (2A.GPM.GMI.GPROF) and the Snow retrievaL ALgorithm fOr gMi (SLALOM). 

The 2C-SNOW product has the highest Heidke Skill Score (HSS=75%) for detecting snowfall among all the analysed products. SLALOM ranks the second (60%) while the Ka-band products falls at the end of the spectrum, with the HSS of 10% only. Low detection capabilities of the DPR products are a result of its low sensitivity. All the GPM retrievals underestimate not only the snow occurances but also snowfall volumes. Underestimation by a factor of two is present for all the GPM products compared to MRMS data. Large discrepancies (RMSE of 0.7 to 1.5 mm/h) between space-borne and ground-based snowfall rate estimates can be attributed to the complexity of ice scattering properties and differences in the algorithms' assumptions.

How to cite: Mroz, K., Montopoli, M., Panegrossi, G., Baldini, L., Battaglia, A., and Kirstetter, P.: Cross-validation of microwave snowfall products over the continental United States, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9971, 2021.

EGU21-7773 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Analysis of the contribution of radar satellite images for the snow cover estimation

Nathan Letheule, Flora Weissgerber, Céline Monteil, and Alexandre Girard

Snow dynamics is a key hydrological process in alpine catchments. The snow accumulation formed during the winter feeds the dams during melting and so the snow quantification is important for dams managing. Snow data obtained from optical images (MODIS product) can be used to improve the simulation of the water flow using an hydrological model (MORDOR-TS, Le Lay, 2018). However, when there are clouds, this data cannot give any information.

To overcome this difficulty, this study presents an additional snow detection method using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The SAR images analysed come from Sentinel-1 (C-band) acquired in IW mode with a resolution of 5m by 20m. These images are obtained under two different polarizations (VV and VH). Before analyzing the SAR images, several pre-treatments such as despeckling, radiometric calibration, coregistration and layover detection are carried out.


The study is conducted around two snow gauges located at high altitude (2275m and 2685m) in the Guil catchment during an accumulation-melting cycle (September 2018-June 2019).

Two types of snow detection methods are used. The first one is a wet snow detection method (Nagler et al., 2016) that compares the analyzed image with a reference image. It allows to determine in a binary format if there is snow or not. The second one is a dry snow detection method (Lievens et al., 2019) which performs a comparison between the two polarizations of the analyzed image and determines a proportional snow depth.


The results were compared to the snow gauges data. Both methods appear to be complementary. Moreover, the time series obtained with snow dry detection method follows the tendency of snow gauges data during cold periods. Spatially over an area of 1600m by 1000m, the complementarity of the two methods can be seen once again. Despite this complementarity, a little presence of misdetection are observed at the resolution of the S1-images. However, when averaged to the resolution of MODIS data (500m by 500m), the detection results are consistent with the ground truth data. 

In the end, this study shows that we can efficiently detect snow with SAR images thanks to two complementary methods. Thus, SAR images add information about the snow cover up to the point of even estimating the snow depth with higher resolution than optical images. 

Le Lay M., Rouhier L., Garavaglia F., Hendrickx F., Monteil C., Le Moine N., and Ribstein P. (2018) Use of snow data in a hydrological distributed model: different approaches for improving model realism, EGU General Assembly 2018, Vienna, Austria.


Lievens, M. D., Marshall, H.-P., Reichle, R. H., Brucker, L., Brangers, I.,de Rosnay, P., Dumont, M., Girotto, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Jonas, T., Kim, E. J., Koch, I.,Marty, C., Saloranta, T., Schöber, J., and Lannoy, G. J. D. (2019). Snow depth variability inthe Northern Hemisphere mountains observed from space.nature communications.


Nagler, H. R., Ripper, E., Bippus, G., and Hetzenecker, M. (2016). Advan-cements for Snowmelt Monitoring by Means of Sentinel-1 SAR.remote sensing.

How to cite: Letheule, N., Weissgerber, F., Monteil, C., and Girard, A.: Analysis of the contribution of radar satellite images for the snow cover estimation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7773, 2021.

EGU21-149 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Snow change detection from polarimetric SAR time-series at X-band (Svalbard, Norway)

Jean-Pierre Dedieu, Anna Wendleder, Bastien Cerino, Julia Boike, Eric Bernard, Jean-Charles Gallet, and Hans-Werner Jacobi

Due to recent climate change conditions, i.e. increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, arctic snow cover dynamics exhibit strong changes in terms of extent and duration. Arctic amplification processes and impacts are well documented expected to strengthen in coming decades. In this context, innovative observation methods are helpful for a better comprehension of the spatial variability of snow properties relevant for climate research and hydrological applications.

Microwave remote sensing provides exceptional spatial and temporal performance in terms of all-weather application and target penetration. Time-series of Synthetic Active Radar images (SAR) are becoming more accessible at different frequencies and polarimetry has demonstrated a significant advantage for detecting changes in different media. Concerning arctic snow monitoring, SAR sensors can offer continuous time-series during the polar night and with cloud cover, providing a consequent advantage in regard of optical sensors.

The aim of this study is dedicated to the spatial/temporal variability of snow in the Ny-Ålesund area on the Br∅gger peninsula, Svalbard (N 78°55’ / E 11° 55’). The TerraSAR-X satellite (DLR, Germany) operated at X-band (3.1 cm, 9.6 GHz) with dual co-pol mode (HH/VV) at 5-m spatial resolution, and with high incidence angles (36° to 39°) poviding a better snow penetration and reducing topographic constraints. A dataset of 92 images (ascending and descending) is available since 2017, together with a high resolution DEM (NPI 5-m) and consistent in-situ measurements of meteorological data and snow profiles including glaciers sites.

Polarimetric processing is based on the Kennaugh matrix decomposition, copolar phase coherence (CCOH) and copolar phase difference (CPD). The Kennaugh matrix elements K0, K3, K4, and K7 are, respectively, the total intensity, phase ratio, intensity ratio, and shift between HH and VV phase center. Their interpretation allows analysing the structure of the snowpack linked to the near real time of in-situ measurements (snow profiles).

The X-band signal is strongly influenced by the snow stratigraphy: internal ice layers reduce or block the penetration of the signal into the snow pack. The best R2 correlation performances between estimated and measured snow heights are ranging from 0.50 to 0.70 for dry snow conditions. Therefore, the use of the X-band for regular snow height estimations remains limited under these conditions.

Conversely, this study shows the benefit of TerraSAR-X thanks to the Kennaugh matrix elements analysis. A focus is set on the Copolar Phase Difference (CPD, Leinss 2016) between VV and HH polarization: Φ CPD = Φ VV - Φ HH. Our results indicate that the CPD values are related to the snow metamorphism: positive values correspond to dry snow (horizontal structures), negative values indicate recrystallization processes (vertical structures).

Backscattering evolution in time offer a good proxy for meteorological events detection, impacting on snow metamorphism. Fresh snowfalls or melting processes can then be retrieved at the regional scale and linked to air temperature or precipitation measurements at local scale. Polarimetric SAR time series is therefore of interest to complement satellite-based precipitation measurements in the Arctic.

How to cite: Dedieu, J.-P., Wendleder, A., Cerino, B., Boike, J., Bernard, E., Gallet, J.-C., and Jacobi, H.-W.: Snow change detection from polarimetric SAR time-series at X-band (Svalbard, Norway), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-149, 2021.

EGU21-881 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Producing Daily Landsat Snow Cover Time-Series Data

Fatemeh Zakeri and Gregoire Mariethoz

Snow cover maps are critical for hydrological studies as well as climate change impacts assessment. Remote sensing plays a vital role in providing snow cover information. However, acquisition limitations such as clouds, shadows, or revisiting time limit accessing daily complete snow cover maps obtained from remote sensing. This study explores the generation of synthetic daily Landsat time-series data focusing on snow cover using available Landsat data and climate data for 2020 in the Western Swiss Alps (Switzerland). 
Landsat surface reflectance is predicted using all available Landsat imagery from 1984 to2020 and ERA5 reanalysis precipitation and air temperature daily data in this study. For a given day where there is no Landsat data, the proposed procedure computes a similarity metric to find a set of days having a similar climatic pattern and for which satellite data is available. These best match images constitute possible snow cover scenarios on the target day and can be used as stochastic input to impact models. 
Visual comparison and quantitative assessment are used to evaluate the accuracy of the generated images. In both accuracy assessments, some real Landsat data are omitted from the searching data set, and synthetic images are compared visually with real Landsat images. In the quantitative evaluation, the RSME between the real and artificial images is computed in a cross-validation fashion. Both accuracy procedures demonstrate that the combination of Landsat and climate data can predict Landsat's daily reflectance focusing on snow cover.

How to cite: Zakeri, F. and Mariethoz, G.: Producing Daily Landsat Snow Cover Time-Series Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-881, 2021.

EGU21-5139 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Factors Impacting Performance of the NDSI-Based Operational Snow Cover Monitoring Algorithm in Forested Landscapes

Arnab Muhuri, Simon Gascoin, Lucas Menzel, Tihomir S. Kostadinov, Adrian A. Harpold, Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado, and Juan I. López-Moreno

In cold regions of the world with significant forest cover, a notable volume of precipitated snow resides under the forest cover. In such regions, snow is an abundant and valuable natural resource and assessing the winter extent of snow precipitation is particularly important for forecasting hydroelectric power potential, managing forests for maximizing the spring snowmelt yield, and monitoring animal habitats.

Forest presents challenging scenarios by obscuring much of the underlying snow over the forest floor from the view of the imaging spaceborne sensors. Moreover, due to the prevalence of mixed pixels, particularly in the forested landscapes, merely binarizing pixels into snow/snow-free can introduce errors while integrating the snow-covered area (SCA) information for hydro-climatological modeling. Therefore, the fractional snow-covered area (fSCA), which is a finer representation of the binary SCA and defines the snow-covered fraction of the pixel area, is a more reliable indicator. 

The recently launched High Resolution Snow & Ice (HRSI) monitoring service by Copernicus allows exploitation of the high-resolution Sentinel-2 data by facilitating free distribution of NDSI-based operational snow cover maps. It also offers the feasibility to estimate the fractional snow cover (FSC) without the requirement of any end-member spectra. In this investigation, we assessed the performance of the NDSI-based operational snow cover area (SCA) monitoring algorithm and the associated FSC with respect to factors influencing the algorithm's performance. The investigation focused over test sites located in the northern Sierra Nevada mountain range in California, US and the central Spanish Pyrenees. The analyses indicated that terrestrial characteristics like tree cover density (TCD) and meteorological factors like incoming solar irradiance impacts the performance of the optical satellite-based snow cover monitoring algorithms. A strong dependence of the algorithm's performance on TCD (negatively correlated) and solar irradiance (positively correlated) was observed.

How to cite: Muhuri, A., Gascoin, S., Menzel, L., Kostadinov, T. S., Harpold, A. A., Sanmiguel-Vallelado, A., and López-Moreno, J. I.: Factors Impacting Performance of the NDSI-Based Operational Snow Cover Monitoring Algorithm in Forested Landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5139, 2021.

EGU21-16016 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Generation of a high-resolution snow cover dataset from Sentinel-2 images for snow model calibration 

Florentin Hofmeister, Leonardo F. Arias-Rodriguez, Marco Borga, Valentina Premier, Carlo Marin, Claudia Notarnicola, Markus Disse, and Gabriele Chiogna

Modeling the runoff generation of high elevation Alpine catchments requires fundamental knowledge of the snow storage and the spatial distribution of snow cover. Since in-situ snow observations are often very scarce and represent only a point information, spatial snow information from satellite data is used since decades. However, the accuracy of snow cover maps through remote sensing products depends strongly on the cloudiness. In order to generate a spatial and temporal highly resolved dataset of snow cover maps, we applied the pixel identification processor (IdePix available in SNAP v7.0) to retrieve diverse cloud layers from Sentinel-2 Level-1C products. This makes it possible to use also high-clouded images for the snow detection, which increases significantly the data availability for the later performed snow model calibration. Cloudy areas, for which snow detection by the NDSI calculation is not possible, are set to no data. Sentinel-2 images that do not have cloud information require an extra correction based on the assumption that the snow cover has a pronounced elevation gradient. The entire NDSI dataset is subdivided into 200 m elevation zones and statistically analyzed. Thereby, the cloud-influenced images clearly stand out as outliers in the elevation zones >3000 m. If an elevation zone is detected as an outlier, the corresponding elevation zone is set to no data as well. After the comprehensive cloud detection, a pixel wise comparison with in-situ snow depth observation of four different sites allows us a first validation of the snow detection quality. In a second step, the generated snow maps are compared with the snow and cloud detection algorithm developed by Eurac Research. The final snow cover maps are used together with the in-situ snow depth observations to calibrate two different snowmelt approaches of the hydrological model WaSiM - the T-index and the energy balance-based approach (including gravitational snow redistribution) - over a mountainous basin in the Eastern Italian Alps.

How to cite: Hofmeister, F., Arias-Rodriguez, L. F., Borga, M., Premier, V., Marin, C., Notarnicola, C., Disse, M., and Chiogna, G.: Generation of a high-resolution snow cover dataset from Sentinel-2 images for snow model calibration , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16016, 2021.

EGU21-14667 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

The optical behaviour of snow during a melting season at Ny Ålesund (Svalbard, Norway)

Roberto Salzano, Christian Lanconelli, Giulio Esposito, Marco Giusto, Mauro Montagnoli, and Rosamaria Salvatori

Polar areas are the most sensitive targets of the climate change and the continuous monitoring of the cryosphere represents a critical issue. The satellite remote sensing can fill this gap but further integration between remotely-sensed multi-spectral images and field data is crucial to validate retrieval algorithms and climatological models. The optical behaviour of snow, at different wavelengths, provides significant information about the micro-physical characteristics of the surface and this allow to discriminate different snow/ice covers. The aim of this work is to present an approach based on combining unmanned observations on spectral albedo and on the analysis of time-lapse images of sky and ground conditions in an Arctic test-site (Svalbard, Norway). Terrestrial photography can provide, in fact, important information about the cloud cover and support the discrimination between white-sky or clear-sky illuminating conditions. Similarly, time-lapse cameras can provide a detailed description of the snow cover, estimating the fractional snow cover area. The spectral albedo was obtained by a narrow band device that was compared to a full-range commercial system and to remotely sensed data acquired during the 2015 spring/summer period at the Amundsen - Nobile Climate Change Tower (Ny Ålesund). The results confirmed the possibility to have continuous observations of the snow surface (microphisical) characteristics and highlighted the opportunity to monitor the spectral variations of snowed surfaces during the melting period. It was possible, therefore, to estimate spectral indexes, such as NDSI and SWIR albedo, and to found interesting links between both features and air/ground temperatures, wind-speed and precipitations. Different melting phases were detected and different processes were associated with the observed spectral variations.

How to cite: Salzano, R., Lanconelli, C., Esposito, G., Giusto, M., Montagnoli, M., and Salvatori, R.: The optical behaviour of snow during a melting season at Ny Ålesund (Svalbard, Norway), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14667, 2021.

EGU21-11188 | vPICO presentations | HS6.3

Ground-based observations of snow spectral albedo with an autonomous device

Henna-Reetta Hannula, Roberta Pirazzini, and Petri Räisänen

Snow metamorphism is a continuous process affecting the snow albedo on time scales ranging from minutes to days, depending on the weather regime. To understand the complex interactions between snow microstructure, snow surface roughness, and surface albedo, these properties need to be observed at sufficiently high temporal resolution. For this reason, a new device, the SVC-FMI spectro-albedometer, was designed by Spectra Vista Corporation (SVC, USA) in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI, Finland) to continuously measure the surface spectral albedo while withstanding the cold and harsh weather conditions typical of polar regions. It consists of a SVC HR-1024i high resolution field portable spectroradiometer, with 3-10nm spectral resolution in the range 350-2500 nm, connected with an optical tube to two integrating spheres, one facing upward and the other facing downward, which collect the irradiance received from the sky and reflected from the surface, respectively. The whole system is enclosed in a weatherproof case which also partially provides thermal stabilization, with ventilated glass domes on the aperture of the integrating spheres, and it is installed in a fixed supporting structure that enables the control of the horizontal alignment of the integrating spheres.

SVC and later FMI calibrated the instrument and characterized the thermal drift of the instrument’s sensitivity and the deviation from the ideal cosine response. In spring 2019 and 2020 the instrument was installed in Sodankylä (northern Finland) over a flat wetland area where about 80-110 cm of snow had accumulated during the winter. The measurement campaigns were carried out in the framework of the Academy of Finland project SnowAPP (“Modelling of the Snow microphysical-radiative interaction and its APPlications”) with funding also from the H2020 EU project INTAROS (“Integrated Arctic Observation System”). The aperture of the downfacing integrating sphere was at 2 m from the snow surface, i.e. high enough to minimize shadows and light obstructions caused by the supporting structure, but low enough to enable easy installation and access to the instrument. Here we illustrate a selection of the collected data, showing all the steps of the data processing, which include the corrections to compensate the temperature drift, the deviation from the ideal cosine response, and shadows and light obstructions. The most complex correction and the one with the largest impact on the data is the deviation from the ideal cosine response. It involves radiative transfer modelling and the measurement (or modelling) of fraction of direct incoming irradiance and snow bidirectional reflectance distribution function. We discuss the different impact of these corrections in case of overcast and clear sky conditions.

Simultaneous measurements of snow properties as well as passive and active microwave signals were carried out, thus these spectral albedo data are very relevant for snow process studies and for the validation of snow products derived from satellite optical sensors.

How to cite: Hannula, H.-R., Pirazzini, R., and Räisänen, P.: Ground-based observations of snow spectral albedo with an autonomous device, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11188, 2021.

HS6.4 – Remote sensing of interactions between vegetation and hydrology​

EGU21-7557 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4 | Highlight

Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean

Johannes Vogel

The ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin are particularly prone to climate change and related alterations in climatic anomalies. The seasonal timing of climatic anomalies is crucial for the assessment of the corresponding ecosystem impacts; however, the incorporation of seasonality is neglected in many studies. We quantify ecosystem vulnerability by investigating deviations of the climatic drivers temperature and soil moisture during phases of low ecosystem productivity for each month of the year over the period 1999 – 2019. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) is used as a proxy for ecosystem productivity. Air temperature is obtained from the reanalysis data set ERA5 Land and soil moisture and FAPAR satellite products are retrieved from ESA CCI and Copernicus Global Land Service, respectively. Our results show that Mediterranean ecosystems are vulnerable to three soil moisture regimes during the course of the year. A phase of vulnerability to hot and dry conditions during late spring to midsummer is followed by a period of vulnerability to cold and dry conditions in autumn. The third phase is characterized by cold and wet conditions coinciding with low ecosystem productivity in winter and early spring. These phases illustrate well the shift between a soil moisture-limited regime in summer and an energy-limited regime in winter in the Mediterranean Basin. Notably, the vulnerability to hot and dry conditions during the course of the year is prolonged by several months in the Eastern Mediterranean compared to the Western Mediterranean. Our approach facilitates a better understanding of ecosystem vulnerability at certain stages during the year and is easily transferable to other study areas and ecoclimatological variables.

How to cite: Vogel, J.: Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7557, 2021.

EGU21-12994 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4 | Highlight

High-resolution mapping of floodplain vegetation changes in large tropical rivers

Luca Salerno, Álvaro Moreno-Martínez, Emma Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Nicholas Clinton, Annunziato Siviglia, and Carlo Camporeale

Tropical floodplain forests are among the most complex ecosystem on earth, featured by vegetation adapted to survive in seasonal flood environments. Although their ability to resist the periodic water level oscillations, recent studies have shown that riparian forests are extremely sensitive to long-term hydrological changes caused by both anthropogenic and natural disturbances. During the recent decades fragmentation and regulation of rivers induced severe alterations of natural “flood pulse” and sediment supply along the whole watercourse, causing massive tree mortality and compromising seeds spreading. The hydroclimatic anomalies of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change impact on riparian environments, aggravating forest stress and vulnerability to fires, in cases of prolonged drought, while inducing tree mortality for anoxia, when a multi-year uninterrupted flood occurred.

In order to develop future solutions to mitigate the consequences of these disturbances and to enable a sustainable and effective management of riparian forests in the aquatic-terrestrial transitional zone (ATTZ), large-scale monitoring of these areas is necessary. Mapping and monitoring of floodplain vegetation are extremely important not only to assess vegetation status but also because vegetation represents an indicator for early signs of any physical or chemical environmental degradation. Remote sensing offers practical and efficient techniques to estimate biochemical and biophysical parameters and analyse their evolution over time even for very remote and poor accessible areas such as tropical floodplains. Nevertheless, as the main vegetation dynamics are in the narrow area at the interface terrestrial and aquatic systems, a high spatial and temporal resolution of the data is needed for their analysis. Furthermore, the extreme cloudiness of tropical regions contaminates the land surface observation causing gap in the data.

In the present study, we combine Landsat (30m spatial resolution and 16 day revisit cycle) and the MODIS missions, both from Terra and Aqua platforms (500m spatial resolution and daily revisit cycle), using HISTARFM algorithm, to reduce noise and produce monthly gap-free high-resolution (30 m) observations over land and the associated estimation of uncertainties. Subsequently, high resolution maps of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were derived from the high-resolution gap free reflectance data. Furthermore, estimation of NDVI and EVI uncertainties was calculated through an error propagation analyses from uncertainties of reflectance estimates.

The framework we developed has been used to derive high resolution mapping of floodplain vegetation in the large tropical rivers that during the last decades experimented a hydrological regime transition. In a first-phase, vegetation dynamic analysis focused of the tropical large rivers in Amazonia and preliminary results of the temporal series will be presented.

The coupling of hydro-geomorphological and vegetation data enables the monitoring of riparian vegetation dynamics and a better understanding of the impact that the human footprint and climate change have on them.

How to cite: Salerno, L., Moreno-Martínez, Á., Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E., Clinton, N., Siviglia, A., and Camporeale, C.: High-resolution mapping of floodplain vegetation changes in large tropical rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12994, 2021.

EGU21-1783 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Changing sensitivity of global vegetation productivity to hydro-climate drivers

Wantong Li, Matthias Forkel, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Sophia Walther, Jasper Denissen, and René Orth

Terrestrial vegetation couples the global water, energy and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Thereby, vegetation productivity is determined by a multitude of energy- and water-related variables. While the emergent sensitivity of productivity to these variables has been inferred from Earth observations, its temporal evolution during the last decades is unclear, as well as potential changes in response to trends in hydro-climatic conditions. In this study, we analyze the changing sensitivity of global vegetation productivity to hydro-climate conditions by using satellite-observed vegetation indices (i.e. NDVI) at the monthly timescale from 1982–2015. Further, we repeat the analysis with simulated leaf area index and gross primary productivity from the TRENDY vegetation models, and contrast the findings with the observation-based results. We train a random forest model to predict anomalies of productivity from a comprehensive set of hydro-meteorological variables (temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, surface and root-zone soil moisture and precipitation), and to infer the sensitivity to each of these variables. By training models from temporal independent subsets of the data we detect the evolution of sensitivity across time. Results based on observations show that vegetation sensitivity to energy- and water-related variables has significantly changed in many regions across the globe. In particular we find decreased (increased) sensitivity to temperature in very warm (cold) regions. Thereby, the magnitude of the sensitivity tends to differ between the early and late growing seasons. Likewise, we find changing sensitivity to root-zone soil moisture with increases predominantly in the early growing season and decreases in the late growing season. For better understanding the mechanisms behind the sensitivity changes, we analyse land-cover changes, hydro-climatic trends, and abrupt disturbances (e.g. drought, heatwave events or fires could result in breaking points of sensitivity evolution in the local interpretation). In summary, this study sheds light on how and where vegetation productivity changes its response to the drivers under climate change, which can help to understand possibly resulting changes in spatial and temporal patterns of land carbon uptake.

How to cite: Li, W., Forkel, M., Migliavacca, M., Reichstein, M., Walther, S., Denissen, J., and Orth, R.: Changing sensitivity of global vegetation productivity to hydro-climate drivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1783, 2021.

EGU21-3503 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Analyzing an InSAR short-term systematic phase bias with regards to soil moisture and landcover

Paloma Saporta, Giorgio Gomba, and Francesco De Zan

This work investigates a systematic phase bias affecting Synthetic Aperture Radar interferograms, in particular at short-term, causing biases in displacement velocity estimates that can reach several mm per year ([1]).
The analysis relies on the processing of a stack of Single Look Complex SAR images; in our case, the stack consists in 184 Sentinel-1 images acquired regularly between 2014 and 2018 and covering the Eastern part of Sicily. A reference phase history is derived using the EMI method (Eigen-decomposition-based Maximum-likelihood estimator of Interferometric phase), which takes advantage of the full sample covariance matrix built out of all the SAR acquisitions at a given pixel. This phase history has been shown to be equivalent to a persistent scatterer’s phase history over our region of interest. We use it to calibrate the direct multilooked interferograms built out of consecutive acquisitions. The short-term phase bias signal thus obtained is analyzed in time and space, making use in addition of ASCAT soil moisture variations and landcover information from the CORINE dataset.
We observe that for certain land classes, the high-frequency part of the signal is correlated with soil moisture variations in both dry and wet seasons. The low-pass trend exhibits strongly seasonal variations, with maxima of comparable value in spring (April-May) of each year. Areas with similar landcover types (forests, vegetated areas, agricultural areas) witness similar phase biases behavior, indicating a physical contribution associated with vegetation effects.
By investigating the behavior of the bias, this study contributes towards a future mitigation of this phase error in deformation estimates, or the exploitation of the bias itself as a physically relevant signal.

[1] H. Ansari, F. De Zan and A. Parizzi, "Study of Systematic Bias in Measuring Surface Deformation With SAR Interferometry," in IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2020.3003421.

How to cite: Saporta, P., Gomba, G., and De Zan, F.: Analyzing an InSAR short-term systematic phase bias with regards to soil moisture and landcover, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3503, 2021.

EGU21-10806 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Soil moisture and vegetation effects on the ASCAT backscatter-incidence angle dependence

Isabella Pfeil, Wolfgang Wagner, Sebastian Hahn, Raphael Quast, Susan Steele-Dunne, and Mariette Vreugdenhil

Soil moisture (SM) datasets retrieved from the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT) sensor are well established and widely used for various hydro-meteorological, agricultural, and climate monitoring applications. Besides SM, ASCAT is sensitive to vegetation structure and vegetation water content, enabling the retrieval of vegetation optical depth (VOD; 1). The challenge in the retrieval of SM and vegetation products from ASCAT observations is to separate the two effects. As described by Wagner et al. (2), SM and vegetation affect the relation between backscatter and incidence angle differently.  At high incidence angles, the response from bare soil and thus the sensitivity to SM conditions is significantly weaker than at low incidence angles, leading to decreasing backscatter with increasing incidence angle. The presence of vegetation on the other hand decreases the backscatter dependence on the incidence angle. The dependence of backscatter on the incidence angle can be described by a second-order Taylor polynomial based on a slope and a curvature coefficient. It was found empirically that SM conditions have no significant effect on the steepness of the slope, and that therefore, SM and vegetation effects can be separated using the slope (2).  This is a major assumption in the TU Wien soil moisture retrieval algorithm used in several operational soil moisture products. However, recent findings by Quast et al. (3) using a first-order radiative transfer model for the inversion of soil and vegetation parameters from scatterometer observations indicate that SM may influence the slope, as the SM-induced backscatter increase is more pronounced at low incidence angles. 

The aim of this analysis is to revisit the assumption that SM does not affect the slope of the backscatter incidence angle relations by investigating if short-term variability, observed in ASCAT slope timeseries on top of the seasonal vegetation cycle, is caused by SM. We therefore compare timeseries and anomalies of the ASCAT slope to air temperature, rainfall and SM from the ERA5-Land dataset. We carry out the analysis in a humid continental climate (Austria) and a Mediterranean climate study region (Portugal). First results show significant negative correlations between slope and SM anomalies. However, correlations between temperature and slope anomalies are of a similar magnitude, albeit positive, which may reflect temperature-induced vegetation dynamics. The fact that temperature and SM are strongly correlated with each other complicates the interpretation of the results. Thus, our second approach is to investigate daily slope values and their change between dry and wet days. The results of this study shall help to quantify the uncertainties in ASCAT SM products caused by the potentially inadequate assumption of a SM-independent slope. 

 

(1) Vreugdenhil, Mariette, et al. "Analyzing the vegetation parameterization in the TU-Wien ASCAT soil moisture retrieval." IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 54.6 (2016): 3513-3531.

(2) Wagner, Wolfgang, et al. "Monitoring soil moisture over the Canadian Prairies with the ERS scatterometer." IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 37.1 (1999): 206-216. 

(3) Quast, Raphael, et al. "A Generic First-Order Radiative Transfer Modelling Approach for the Inversion of Soil and Vegetation Parameters from Scatterometer Observations." Remote Sensing 11.3 (2019): 285.

How to cite: Pfeil, I., Wagner, W., Hahn, S., Quast, R., Steele-Dunne, S., and Vreugdenhil, M.: Soil moisture and vegetation effects on the ASCAT backscatter-incidence angle dependence, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10806, 2021.

EGU21-6461 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Inferring the effects of surface canopy water on VOD estimation from L-band backscatter 

Saeed Khabbazan, Paul.C. Vermunt, Susan.C. Steele Dunne, Ge Gao, Mariette Vreugdenhil, and Jasmeet Judge

Quantification of vegetation parameters such as Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) and Vegetation Water Content (VWC) can be used for better irrigation management, yield forecasting, and soil moisture estimation. Since VOD is directly related to vegetation water content and canopy structure, it can be used as an indicator for VWC. Over the past few decades, optical and passive microwave satellite data have mostly been used to monitor VWC. However, recent research is using active data to monitor VOD and VWC benefitting from their high spatial and temporal resolution.

Attenuation of the microwave signal through the vegetation layer is parametrized by the VOD. VOD is assumed to be linearly related to VWC with the proportionality constant being an empirical parameter b. For a given wavelength and polarization, b is assumed static and only parametrized as a function of vegetation type. The hypothesis of this study is that the VOD is not similar for dry and wet vegetation and the static linear relationship between attenuation and vegetation water content is a simplification of reality.

The aim of this research is to understand the effect of surface canopy water on VOD estimation and the relationship between VOD and vegetation water content during the growing season of a corn canopy. In addition to studying the dependence of VOD on bulk VWC for dry and wet vegetation, the effect of different factors, such as different growth stages and internal vegetation water content is investigated using time series analysis.

A field experiment was conducted in Florida, USA, for a full growing season of sweet corn. The corn field was scanned every 30 minutes with a truck-mounted, fully polarimetric, L-band radar. Pre-dawn vegetation water content was measured using destructive sampling three times a week for a full growing season. VWC could therefore be analyzed by constituent (leaf, stem, ear) or by height. Meteorological data, surface canopy water (dew or interception), and soil moisture were measured every 15 minutes for the entire growing season.

The methodology of Vreugdenhil et al.  [1], developed by TU Wien for ASCAT data, was adapted to present a new technique to estimate VOD from single-incidence angle backscatter data in each polarization. The results showed that the effect of surface canopy water on the VOD estimation increased by vegetation biomass accumulation and the effect was higher in the VOD estimated from the co-pol compared with the VOD estimated from the cross-pol. Moreover, the surface canopy water considerably affected the regression coefficient values (b-factor) of the linear relationship between VOD and VWC from dry and wet vegetation. This finding suggests that considering a similar b-factor for the dry and the wet vegetation will introduce errors in soil moisture retrievals. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of considering canopy wetness conditions when using tau-omega.

  • [1] Vreugdenhil,W. A. Dorigo,W.Wagner, R. A. De Jeu, S. Hahn, andM. J. VanMarle, “Analyzing the vegetation parameterization in the TU-Wien ASCAT soil moisture retrieval,” IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, vol. 54, pp. 3513–3531, 2016

How to cite: Khabbazan, S., Vermunt, P. C., Steele Dunne, S. C., Gao, G., Vreugdenhil, M., and Judge, J.: Inferring the effects of surface canopy water on VOD estimation from L-band backscatter , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6461, 2021.

EGU21-8065 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4 | Highlight

Reconstructing daily cycles of canopy water for the validation of (subdaily) microwave estimates

Paul Vermunt, Susan Steele-Dunne, Saeed Khabbazan, Nick van de Giesen, and Jasmeet Judge

Monitoring rapid, subdaily vegetation water dynamics is key to address fundamental questions surrounding the role of vegetation in the water, carbon and energy cycles, and to provide essential information for detecting and monitoring droughts on local to global scales. Active and passive microwave remote sensing has been used to estimate vegetation water content (VWC), e.g. using vegetation optical depth (VOD), because of the sensitivity of microwave observables to plant dielectric properties. These estimates were used for applications such as fuel load estimation, soil moisture retrieval, crop monitoring and studies on drought propagation. The expected availability of subdaily observations from the next generation of satellites opens the opportunity to also monitor rapid vegetation water dynamics. However, one of the main challenges is the validation of subdaily microwave products.

VWC is commonly measured through destructive sampling, which is labor- and time-intensive, in particular when this has to be done multiple times per day. Here, we present a proof of concept for a more efficient validation method, using continuously measuring sensors. First, we present our latest study on reconstructing continuous records of VWC in corn, using hydrometeorological data and sparse destructive sampling [Vermunt et al., in prep.]. Second, we present the estimation of surface canopy water (dew, rainfall interception), and illustrate the value of both data sets by using them to analyse our tower-based observations of subdaily fully polarimetric L-band backscatter [1]. The results demonstrate the potential for radar to monitor rapid vegetation water dynamics.

[1] Vermunt, P. C., Khabbazan, S., Steele-Dunne, S. C., Judge, J., Monsivais-Huertero, A., Guerriero, L., & Liu, P. W. (2020). Response of Subdaily L-Band Backscatter to Internal and Surface Canopy Water Dynamics. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

How to cite: Vermunt, P., Steele-Dunne, S., Khabbazan, S., van de Giesen, N., and Judge, J.: Reconstructing daily cycles of canopy water for the validation of (subdaily) microwave estimates, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8065, 2021.

EGU21-13033 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

L-band vegetation optical depth as an indicator of plant water potential in a temperate deciduous forest stand

Nataniel Holtzman, Leander Anderegg, Simon Kraatz, Alex Mavrovic, Oliver Sonnentag, Christoforos Pappas, Michael Cosh, Alexandre Langlois, Tarendra Lakhankar, Derek Tesser, Nicholas Steiner, Andreas Colliander, Alexandre Roy, and Alexandra Konings

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) retrieved from microwave radiometry correlates with the total amount of water in vegetation. In addition to depending on overall biomass, the total amount of water in vegetation varies with relative water content, which is monotonically related to plant water potential, a quantity that drives plant hydraulic behavior. Thus there is a possible relationship between VOD and plant water potential. Previous studies have found evidence for that relationship on the scale of satellite pixels tens of kilometers across, but these comparisons suffer from significant scaling error. Here we used small-scale remote sensing to test the link between remotely sensed VOD and plant water potential. We placed an L-band radiometer on a tower above the canopy looking down at red oak forest stand during the 2019 growing season in the northeastern United States. We retrieved VOD with a single-channel algorithm based on continuous radiometer measurements and in-situ soil moisture data. We also measured water potentials of stem xylem and leaves on trees within the stand.

VOD exhibited a diurnal cycle similar to that of leaf and stem water potential, with a peak at approximately 5 AM. Over the whole growing season, VOD was also positively correlated with both the water potential of stem xylem and the xylem's dielectric constant (a proxy for water content). The presence of moisture on the leaves did not affect the observed relationship between VOD and xylem dielectric constant. We used our observed VOD-water potential relationship to estimate stand-level values for a radiative transfer parameter and a plant hydraulic parameter, which compared well with the published literature. Our findings support the use of VOD for plant hydraulic studies in temperate forests.

How to cite: Holtzman, N., Anderegg, L., Kraatz, S., Mavrovic, A., Sonnentag, O., Pappas, C., Cosh, M., Langlois, A., Lakhankar, T., Tesser, D., Steiner, N., Colliander, A., Roy, A., and Konings, A.: L-band vegetation optical depth as an indicator of plant water potential in a temperate deciduous forest stand, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13033, 2021.

EGU21-5786 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Influence of surface water variations on VOD and biomass estimates from passive microwave sensors

Emma Bousquet, Arnaud Mialon, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Catherine Prigent, Fabien Wagner, and Yann Kerr

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is a remotely sensed indicator characterizing the attenuation of the Earth's thermal emission at microwave wavelengths by the vegetation layer. At L-band, VOD can be used to estimate and monitor aboveground biomass (AGB), a key component of the Earth's surface and of the carbon cycle. We observed a strong anti-correlation between SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) L-band VOD (L-VOD) and soil moisture (SM) anomalies over seasonally inundated areas, confirming previous observations of an unexpected decline in K-band VOD during flooding (Jones et al., 2011). These results could be, at least partially, due to artefacts affecting the retrieval and could lead to uncertainties on the derived L-VOD during flooding. To study the behaviour of SMOS satellite L-VOD retrieval algorithm over seasonally inundated areas, the passive microwave L-MEB (L-band Microwave Emission of the Biosphere) model was used to simulate the signal emitted by a mixed scene composed of soil and standing water. The retrieval over this inundated area shows an overestimation of SM and an underestimation of L-VOD. This underestimation increases non-linearly with the surface water fraction. The phenomenon is more pronounced over grasslands than over forests. The retrieved L-VOD is typically underestimated by ~10% over flooded forests and up to 100% over flooded grasslands. This is mainly due to the fact that i) low vegetation is mostly submerged under water and becomes invisible to the sensor; and ii) more standing water is seen by the sensor. Such effects can distort the analysis of aboveground biomass (AGB) and aboveground carbon (AGC) estimates and dynamics based on L-VOD. Using the L-VOD/AGB relationship from Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. (2018), we evaluated that AGB can be underestimated by 15/20Mg ha-1 in the largest wetlands, and up to higher values during exceptional meteorological years. Such values are more significant over herbaceous wetlands, where AGB is ~30 Mg ha-1, than over flooded forests, which have typical AGB values of 150-300 Mg ha-1. Consequently, to better estimate the global biomass, surface water seasonality has to be taken into account in passive microwave retrieval algorithms.

How to cite: Bousquet, E., Mialon, A., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Prigent, C., Wagner, F., and Kerr, Y.: Influence of surface water variations on VOD and biomass estimates from passive microwave sensors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5786, 2021.

EGU21-15551 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Continuous observation of canopy water content changes with GPS sensors

Vincent Humphrey, Brian L. Dorsey, and Christian Frankenberg

Canopy water content is a direct indicator of vegetation water use and hydraulic stress, reflecting how ecosystems respond and adapt to droughts and heatwaves. It represents an interesting target for Earth system models which attempt to predict the response and resilience of the vegetation in the face of changing climatic conditions. So far, in-situ estimates of vegetation water content often rely on infrequent and time-consuming samplings of leaf water content, which are not necessarily representative of the canopy scale. On the other hand, several satellite techniques have demonstrated a promising potential for monitoring vegetation optical depth and water content, but these large-scale measurements are still difficult to reference against sparse in-situ level observations.

Here, we present an experimental technique based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to bridge this persisting scale gap. Because GNSS microwave signals are obstructed and scattered by vegetation and liquid water, placing a GNSS sensor in a forest and measuring changes in signal quality can provide continuous information on canopy water content and forest structure. We demonstrate that variations in GNSS signal attenuation reflect the distribution of biomass density and liquid water in the canopy, consistent with ancillary relative leaf water content measurements, and can be monitored continuously. Of particular interest, this technique can resolve diurnal variations in canopy water content at sub-hourly time steps. The few rainfall events captured during the 8-months observational record also suggest that canopy water interception can be monitored at 5 minutes intervals. We discuss future strategies and requirements for deploying such off-the-shelf passive bistatic radar systems at existing FluxNet sites.

How to cite: Humphrey, V., Dorsey, B. L., and Frankenberg, C.: Continuous observation of canopy water content changes with GPS sensors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15551, 2021.

EGU21-11932 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4 | Highlight

Multisensor SAR and optical estimation of grassland above-ground biomass and LAI: a case study for the Mazia valley in South Tyrol

Mattia Rossi, Eugenia Chiarito, Francesca Cigna, Giovanni Cuozzo, Giacomo Fontanelli, Simonetta Paloscia, Emanuele Santi, Deodato Tapete, and Claudia Notarnicola

Grasslands are a predominant land cover form, responsible for ecosystem services such as slope stabilization, water and carbon storage or fodder provision for livestock. At the same time, altering climatic effects and human activities have influenced the natural growth pattern and condition of alpine grasslands over the past decades. Mountainous areas are projected to be particularly impacted by climatic changes and management practices. Nowadays, a wide variety and different installations of Earth observation systems are available to monitor and predict grassland growth and status, to evidence ecosystem services such as biodiversity, the fodder availability or to highlight the effectiveness of management practices.

In this study Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) machine learning techniques were used to estimate the aboveground biomass, plant water content and the leaf area index (LAI). As input, we combined hyperspectral imagery from field spectrometers, optical Sentinel-2 data as well as SAR data from Sentinel-1. The models were tested targeting approximately 250 biomass and LAI samples taken from 2017 to 2020 on grasslands in the Mazia/Matsch valley, located in South Tyrol (Italy). The dataset was divided based on grassland type (meadow and pasture) the growth period (up to three growth periods a year for meadows), as well as the year, to analyze the modelled predictions based on the growing stage of the vegetation.

The results obtained using the integration of the datasets are very promising in the meadow, with R2 reaching ranging from 0.5 to 0.8 for the biomass and from 0.6 to 0.8 for the LAI retrieval. At the same time, the division in growth phases shows a slightly higher correlation than during the first and second growing periods, indicating that the irregular growth after the last harvest of the year affects the capability of prediction of LAI and above-ground biomass. However, the predictability worsens on high biomass and LAI values before the harvest takes place, thus indicating an impact of the saturation in the optical data and revealing the need for additional data sources or an alternated weighting of the predictors in the models. The results on the pasture show that the prediction of LAI and biomass with optical and SAR data is difficult to achieve (mean R2 ranging from 0.3 to 0.4) given the natural heterogeneity in growth within the test area. Additional datasets such as cattle movement or the slope information could represent a valuable source of information for further LAI and biomass growth analyses in mountainous areas.

This research is part of the 2019-2021 project ‘Development of algorithms for estimation and monitoring of hydrological parameters from satellite and drone’, funded by ASI under grant agreement n.2018-37-HH.0.

How to cite: Rossi, M., Chiarito, E., Cigna, F., Cuozzo, G., Fontanelli, G., Paloscia, S., Santi, E., Tapete, D., and Notarnicola, C.: Multisensor SAR and optical estimation of grassland above-ground biomass and LAI: a case study for the Mazia valley in South Tyrol, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11932, 2021.

Crops are of the fundamental food sources for humanity. Due to the population growth as well as climate change, monitoring of the crops is important to sustain agriculture and conserve natural resources. Development of the remote sensing techniques especially in terms of revisiting time opens new avenues to study crops temporal behaviors from space. Moreover, thanks to the Copernicus program, which guarantees optical as well as radar data to be freely available, there are opportunities to utilize them in an operative way. Additionally, utilization of spectral as well as radar data allows for the synergetic application of both datasets. However, to utilize this data in the operational crop monitoring, it is very important to understand the temporal variations of the remote sensing signal. Therefore, we make an attempt to understand spectral as well as radar remote sensing temporal behavior and its relation with phonological stages.

For the analysis, 14 cloud-free Sentinel-2 (S-2) acquisitions as well as 34 Sentinel-1 (S-1) acquisitions are utilized. S-2 data were collected with 2A-level while S-1 data was captured in the format of Single Look Complex (SLC) in the Interferometric Wide (IW) swath mode. SLC products consist of complex SAR data preserving phase information which allows studying polarimetric indicators. All remote sensing (spectral as well as SAR) data cover the time period from 04/05/2020 to 07/11/2020. During this time, also 14 field visits were carried out to capture information about phonological stages of corn and wheat according to the BBCH scale (Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt und CHemische Industrie). Additionally, to better understand the temporal behavior of S-1/S-2 signal, weather information from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) was captured.

Based on various spectral bands of S-2 data, 12 spectral indices were calculated e.g., GNDVI (Green Normalized Vegetation Index), IRECI (Inverted Red-Edge Chlorophyll Index), MCARI (Modified Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index), MSAVI (Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index), MTCI (MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index), NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), PSSRa (Pigment Specific Simple Ratio) and others. After radiometric calibration and the Lee speckle filtering, backscattering coefficients (σVVoVHo) of S-1 images were calculated as well as its backscattering ratio (σVHo/ σVVo).  All images were then converted from linear to decibel (dB). Additionally, 2 × 2 covariance matrix delivered from S-1 was extracted from the scattering matrix of each SLC image using PolSARpro version 6.0.2 software. After speckle filtration, total scattered power was derived which allows calculating the Shannon Entropy. This value measures the randomness of the scattering within a pixel.

Time series of many S-2 indices reveal the strong correlation between the development of phenology stages of corn and wheat and the increase of S2 delivered values of spectral indices. However, such a strong correlation cannot be observed within many of S-1 indices. Some of them very poorly indicate the correlation between the development of phenology stages of corn and wheat and increase of S-1 indices values. Additionally, it was observed that values of S1/S2 indices for the same phenology stage very between corn and winter wheat.

 

How to cite: Pasternak, M. and Pawluszek-Filipiak, K.: An attempt to understand corn and winter wheat temporal behavior by means of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data and its relation with phonological stages., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12307, 2021.

A shift to more sustainable land cultivation practices is necessary to meet the future crop demand, which faces a vastly growing population and changing climatic conditions. To assess which management practices can be effectively applied at a regional scale, good spatial monitoring techniques are required. With a regional version of the AquaCrop model v6.1, we simulate crop biomass production and soil moisture at a 1-km resolution over Europe. Biomass productivity is compared against the Dry Matter Productivity of the Copernicus Global Land Service, derived from optical satellite sensors, while surface moisture content is evaluated with Sentinel-1 and SMAP microwave satellite retrieval products and inter-compared with in situ data. We show that the AquaCrop model can successfully be applied at a relatively fine resolution over a large scale, using global input data.

This research is part of a H2020 project, named SHui. SHui is a collaborative effort between Universities from Europe and China, with the overall aim of managing water scarcity in cropping systems for individuals as well as stakeholder organizations.

How to cite: de Roos, S., De Lannoy, G., and Raes, D.: Using a regional version of the AquaCrop model to simulate crop biomass and soil moisture: an evaluation with remote sensing data products, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2265, 2021.

EGU21-15589 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Beyond Cloud: A Fused Optic and SAR Based Solution to Monitor Crop Health

Brianna Pagán, Adekunle Ajayi, Mamadou Krouma, Jyotsna Budideti, and Omar Tafsi

The value of satellite imagery to monitor crop health in near-real time continues to exponentially grow as more missions are launched making data available at higher spatial and temporal scales. Yet cloud cover remains an issue for utilizing vegetation indexes (VIs) solely based on optic imagery, especially in certain regions and climates. Previous research has proven the ability to reconstruct VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) by leveraging synthetic aperture radar (SAR) datasets, which are not inhibited by cloud cover. Publicly available data from SAR missions like Sentinel-1 at relatively decent spatial resolutions present the opportunity for more affordable options for agriculture users to integrate satellite imagery in their day to day operations. Previous research has successfully reconstructed optic VIs (i.e. from Sentinel-2) with SAR data (i.e. from Sentinel-1) leveraging various machine learning approaches for a limited number of crop types. However, these efforts normally train on individual pixels rather than leveraging information at a field level. 

Here we present Beyond Cloud, a product which is the first to leverage computer vision and machine learning approaches in order to provide fused optic and SAR based crop health information. Field level learning is especially well-suited for inherently noisy SAR datasets. Several use cases are presented over agriculture fields located throughout the United Kingdom, France and Belgium, where cloud cover limits optic based solutions to as little as 2-3 images per growing season. Preliminary efforts for additional features to the product including automated crop and soil type detection are also discussed. Beyond Cloud can be accessed via a simple API which makes integration of the results easy for existing dashboards and smart-ag tools. Overall, these efforts promote the accessibility of satellite imagery for real agriculture end users.

 

How to cite: Pagán, B., Ajayi, A., Krouma, M., Budideti, J., and Tafsi, O.: Beyond Cloud: A Fused Optic and SAR Based Solution to Monitor Crop Health, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15589, 2021.

EGU21-8690 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4 | Highlight

Water Accounting Plus (WA+) through Remote Sensing in the Yarmouk Tributary Basin

Chadi Abdallah, Gina Tarhini, Mariam Daher, Hussein Khatib, and Mark Zeitoun

Coping with the issue of water scarcity and growing competition for water among different sectors requires effective water management strategies and decision processes. ‘Getting it right’ becomes doubly important when dealing with intenational transboundary rivers. The Yarmouk tributary to the Jordan River is one highly exploited in the Middle East, and is enveloped by ambiguous treaties and decades of violent and non-violent conflict. Seeking to chart a more sustainable and equitable future, this work performs a 'water accounting plus' methodology employing readily available remotely sensed satellite-based data coupled with available measurements.  A variety of methods described herein were used to detect irrigated crops and produce maps showing the distribution throughout the basin. The framework also focuses on the classification of land use categories and the processes by which water is depleted over all land use classes that contributes to separate the beneficial from non-beneficial usage of water. The analysis was started prior to the 2011 start of the Syrian war in order to study the initial distribution of land use classes as well as the water depletion processes before any change in the basin. It shows that more than half of the exploitable water is not consumed within the basin and depleted outside. In contrast, most of the water consumed within the basin is wasted and depleted in a non-beneficial way. Roughly 35% of the cultivated area shown to be irrigated through withdrawals which exceed the capacity of the source. This result reflects the high abstraction rates from groundwater via a large number of unlicensed wells mostly located at the Syrian side. This study also detect a deficiency in the water balance of the Yarmouk River. The findings are relevant to sustainable management not only for water-dependent sectors but also for geopolitical stability among the riparian countries. In this way, open- access remote sensing derived data can provide useful information about the status of water resources especially when ground measurements are poor or absent.

 

Keywords: Yarmouk, Water Accounting Plus, IWM, Irrigated crops, WAPOR.

How to cite: Abdallah, C., Tarhini, G., Daher, M., Khatib, H., and Zeitoun, M.: Water Accounting Plus (WA+) through Remote Sensing in the Yarmouk Tributary Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8690, 2021.

EGU21-1572 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Local-scale secondary water resources modulate seasonal water limitation across Africa

Çağlar Küçük, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Diego G. Miralles, Markus Reichstein, and Martin Jung

Drylands contribute strongly to global biogeochemical cycles and their variability. While precipitation is the main driver of plant water availability, secondary water resources like shallow groundwater and lateral convergence of soil moisture may play important roles in supporting ecosystems against water limitation at the local scale. Despite their strong relevance, the effects of secondary water resources are often ignored or highly uncertain in studies over large spatial domains. 

Here, we aimed to quantify the degree to which land properties control secondary water resources over water-limited regions in Africa. To do so, we first detected the seasonal decay periods of Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) time series from the changes in FVC over time at daily temporal resolution. FVC data is provided by the EUMETSAT from the image acquisitions from the geostationary satellite MSG. We then calculated the seasonal decay rate of FVC (λ) and used it with other climate, land and vegetation properties at 5 km spatial resolution. We hypothesized that any secondary water resource should slow down vegetation decays in drylands. We used gradient boosting machine learning to model λ and constrained the model according to the hypothesis. Finally, we used Shapley additive explanations in order to quantify the effects of land properties on spatial variation of the modelled λ.

Model output (NSE = 0.55) revealed that over drylands of Africa, ∼1/3 of spatial variation of λ is attributed to land properties, half of which is attributed to direct land effects while the rest is attributed to the land interactions with climate and vegetation. Though at local scales, this attribution gets much stronger over hotspots with strong secondary water resources, i.e., shallow groundwater. Spatially, land attributed variations of λ show that vegetation decays slower in regions with shallow groundwater and faster in regions where land surface is disconnected from the groundwater. Topographic complexity is another important factor, with slower vegetation decay in complex terrain, likely due to enhanced lateral moisture convergence. Moreover, these responses intensify with increasing climatological water limitation. 

We found strong effects of land parameters on seasonal vegetation decay rate, spatially structured but at local scales. This highlights the importance of local scale processes affecting water availability in drylands not only at local but also continental to global scales and shows the need of bridging processes across spatial scales in regional-to-global hydrological and vegetation models.

How to cite: Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D. G., Reichstein, M., and Jung, M.: Local-scale secondary water resources modulate seasonal water limitation across Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1572, 2021.

EGU21-1849 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

The role of multi-sensor remote sensing for drought characterization: challenges and opportunities

Lixin Wang, Wenzhe Jiao, and Matthew McCabe

Satellite based remote sensing plays important role in studying regional to continental scale drought. One of the unique elements of remote sensing platforms is their multi-sensor capabilities, which enhance the capacity for characterizing drought from a variety of aspects. However, multi-sensor integrated drought evaluation is in its infancy. To advocate and encourage on-going exploration and integration of multi-sensor remote sensing for drought studies, we provide an overview of the role of multi-sensor remote sensing for addressing knowledge gaps and driving advances in drought studies. We first present a comprehensive summary of large-scale drought-related remote sensing datasets that can be used for multi-sensor drought studies. Then we provide a detailed review of how the integrated multi-sensor remote sensing could enhance our analysis in multiple important drought related phenomena and mechanisms such as drought-induced tree mortality, drought-related ecosystem fires, post-drought recovery and legacy effects, flash drought, and drought trends under climate change. We also provide a summary of recent modeling advances towards developing integrated multi-sensor remote sensing drought indices. We highlight that leveraging multi-sensor remote sensing provides unique benefits for regional to global drought studies, particularly in: 1) revealing the complex drought impact mechanisms on various ecosystem components; 2) providing continuous long-term drought related information at large scales; 3) presenting real-time drought information with high spatiotemporal resolution; 4) providing multiple lines of evidence of drought monitoring to improve modeling and prediction robustness; and 5) improving the accuracy of drought monitoring and assessment efforts.

How to cite: Wang, L., Jiao, W., and McCabe, M.: The role of multi-sensor remote sensing for drought characterization: challenges and opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1849, 2021.

EGU21-10518 | vPICO presentations | HS6.4

Detecting drought conditions related to vegetation at west continental Europe based on variations from the North and Caspian Seas

Bolin Xu, Qing He, Kwok Pan Chun, Julian Klaus, Rémy Schoppach, and Ömer Yetemen

Teleconnections relate regional pressure patterns to local climate anomalies, influencing the variation of vegetation patterns. Over west continental Europe, droughts have been widely investigated with persistent low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) with the centers over the Atlantic based on the 500mb height anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of teleconnection patterns with the centers of active variability over the North and Caspian Seas is largely unexplored for droughts related to vegetation patterns. In this study, we explored the impact of the North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) on regional ecohydrologic conditions in the Greater Region of Luxembourg in Western Europe. Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we first decomposed the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) between 1981 and 2015. In the first PCA component, a distinctive greening trend of NDVI is detected since the late 1980s. However, the corresponding station observations and the ERA5 reanalysis data show that the region in west continental Europe became increasingly drier based on the difference between precipitation and evaporation. We explain the above paradoxical greening but drying patterns by the mechanism of NCP over the region. During the positive phase of NCP, the high pressure over the North Sea weakens circulation over the region and leads to warmer conditions in west continental Europe. These conditions are good for vegetation growth because the region was mainly energy-limited during the observed period at the annual scale based on a Budyko analysis. However, the positive phase of NCP also promotes divergent conditions at the lower troposphere and it reduces moisture flux over the region. In the Budyko space, the persistent positive phase of NCP would lead the energy-limited region to be water-limited. As the positive phase of NCP is expected to be more frequent along with the increasing global temperatures, the region may start to experience increasing water stress on vegetation. These results suggest that unforeseen droughts related to vegetation may be emerging in the region. New drought monitoring and management measures related to vegetation should be developed at west continental Europe, especially during the positive phase of NCP.

How to cite: Xu, B., He, Q., Chun, K. P., Klaus, J., Schoppach, R., and Yetemen, Ö.: Detecting drought conditions related to vegetation at west continental Europe based on variations from the North and Caspian Seas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10518, 2021.

HS6.5 – Remote sensing for flood dynamics monitoring and flood mapping

EGU21-10295 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5 | Highlight

Water monitoring with Very High Resolution satellite imagery

Freddie Kalaitzis, Gonzalo Mateo Garcia, and Giovanni Marchisio
The water volume on Earth's surface constantly varies with precipitation: an excess of water might lead to flooding, while its absence indicates upcoming droughts. We cannot afford in-situ monitoring devices on all rivers and streams worldwide, and free satellite imagery lacks the spatial and temporal resolution for continuous monitoring.
 
This talk will provide several examples of water monitoring using PlanetScope daily imagery. The global daily coverage of Planet's data presents new opportunities for developing robust models of flood hazard, providing timely mapping in support of relief operations, and applying near real time predictive models for river flow estimation based on simultaneous measurements over entire river basins.
 
First, we will describe how satellite data enable quantitative urban flood risk analysis by intersecting building segmentation maps with high risk flood zones. Rapid urbanization in developing countries is often unplanned and carries substantial risk for critical infrastructures. More frequent and severe flooding caused by climate change is exacerbating this. We capture rapid urbanization trends in African cities from high cadence imagery, and use flood risk data to quantify the humanitarian risk from flooding.
 
Second, we will show hurricane Harvey risk areas and demonstrate flood mapping. Flood mapping through high-cadence data provides vital information to first respondents on the ground on the damage of road networks and infrastructure.
 
Third, we will present Pix2Streams: a methodology to estimate water occurrence at the stream level developed in partnership with Frontier Development Lab and the USGS.
 
Pix2Streams is a pipeline that consists of
i) a water segmentation model that fuses several days of 3m PlanetScope imagery with 1m LiDAR data that is able to detect streams 5-7m wide,
ii) integration of the output of this model with a DEM-derived flow-line map to estimate water % coverage at the stream level.
 
Applying Pix2Streams across 2 years of daily PlanetScope imagery produces the first high-resolution dynamic map of stream flow frequency.
This is a new map that - if applied over entire watersheds - could fundamentally improve how we manage our water resources around the world, and may also evolve into an early warning system for floods or droughts. In particular, calibration and validation of measurements from space against USGS gage measurements downstream and the associated time lag could be a topic of future research.

How to cite: Kalaitzis, F., Mateo Garcia, G., and Marchisio, G.: Water monitoring with Very High Resolution satellite imagery, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10295, 2021.

EGU21-1454 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Large-scale compound flood mapping with deep learning and data fusion techniques

David F. Muñoz, Paul Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani

Compound flooding (CF), as a result oceanic, hydrological, meteorological and anthropogenic processes, is an extreme event that threatens life and assets of people living in low-lying areas worldwide. Large-scale CF is often studied with hydrodynamic models that combine either successive or concurrent processes to simulate flood dynamics. In recent years, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and data fusion (DF) techniques have emerged as feasible and simple alternatives for post-flood mapping when compared to complex modeling. Yet, both techniques have not been explored for large-scale CF mapping. Here, we evaluate the performance of a CNN & DF framework for generating CF maps driven by Hurricane Matthew that hit the southeast Atlantic coast of the U.S. in October, 2016. The framework fuses multispectral imagery (Landsat ARD), dual-polarized synthetic aperture radar data (SAR) and coastal digital elevation maps (DEMs) to generate flood maps of moderate (30 m) spatial resolution. We first train/validate the CNN & DF framework with official land cover maps (C-CAP) as well as flood maps obtained from a calibrated Delft3D-FM model of Savannah River estuary in Georgia, and then evaluate the framework in the southeast Atlantic coast. The highest overall accuracy (97%) and f1-score for permanent/flood water classes (99/100%) are achieved when ARD, SAR and DEM datasets are readily available and adequately fused. Moreover, the resulting CF maps agree well (80%) with hindcast surge and flood guidance maps of the Coastal Emergency Risk Assessment (CERA) web mapper. We also evaluate the framework with different DF alternatives and highlight its usefulness for large-scale compound flood hazard assessments and a thorough calibration of hydrodynamic models. Future work is envisioned toward a comprehensive CNN & DF framework that provides not only accurate large-scale flood extent maps, but also inundation depth based on both deep learning and multi-source data fusion.

How to cite: Muñoz, D. F., Muñoz, P., Moftakhari, H., and Moradkhani, H.: Large-scale compound flood mapping with deep learning and data fusion techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1454, 2021.

EGU21-2683 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Global flood monitoring with GRACE/GRACE-FO

Milena Latinovic, Andreas Güntner, Frank Flechtner, Michael Murböck, and Andreas Kwas

The German Aerospace Center and NASA's joint mission, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) operational from 2002 until October 2017, provided measurements of Earth's gravity field anomalies. Its follow-on mission GRACE-FO, implemented by NASA and GFZ, was launched in May 2018 and continued to give us large-scale measurements of the Earth's gravity variations. These variations in gravity are used to determine anomalies of total water storage (TWSA) which can provide us with insights into global water redistribution on a monthly up to a daily basis.

Most common natural disasters that still require efficient early warning systems are floods. Floods are causing significant economic and humanitarian losses on a global scale and are triggered by the interaction of different hydro-meteorological processes (e.g. precipitation, sub-surface water storage, snow cover).    

We aim to explore GRACE and GRACE-FO products' possibilities to detect the water storage dynamics associated with floods in large river catchments. We include analysis of the basins' wetness states before the flood events, which eventually can give us early indicators of flood development. During the GRACE data period, we investigate around 2500 historical floods from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO). We acquire GRACE data with daily resolution from the latest releases of ITSG and GFZ for the spatial extent of DFO floods and reduce TWSA values by long-term trends and by average seasonal variability. Furthermore, we assess the available river discharge time series, during the GRACE period, obtained from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) for the flood event separation. We compare GRACE-based water storage anomalies to flood events' characteristics, like peak, volume, and duration. Results show the potential of GRACE-based TWSA to detect large-scale flood events.

How to cite: Latinovic, M., Güntner, A., Flechtner, F., Murböck, M., and Kwas, A.: Global flood monitoring with GRACE/GRACE-FO, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2683, 2021.

EGU21-6982 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Improving Operational SAR-based Flood Mapping in Arid Regions

Antara Dasgupta, Maxwell Goodman, Nestor Yague Martinez, and Beth Tellman

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) based flood maps are rapidly becoming a vital part of flood monitoring applications, since they provide unobscured observations independent of illumination or weather conditions. As water surfaces are physically smoother than microwave wavelengths, they appear dark in SAR imagery due to specular reflection, enabling the automatic delineation of flooded areas. However, in arid regions using backscatter thresholds to identify inundation results in numerous false positives, since dry and smooth desert sand appears as dark as water in SAR images. Accordingly, a novel Sentinel-1 SAR-based flood mapping algorithm S1-L1 to discern flood inundation from water lookalike surfaces in arid regions. The swath is tiled to ensure comparable land-water pixel distributions and long-term water recurrence records from optical Landsat sensors is used to classify potentially water and definitely land (DL) areas. Smooth surfaces and radar shadow regions, which exhibit backscatter lower than the median value for >50% of the preceding year, are excluded from the DL pixels to avoid thin long tailed distributions. The first percentile value of the DL distribution is selected as the water threshold for each band (VV and VH), to include the maximum possible water pixels without letting in large volumes of land pixels. A Gaussian contextual smoother is used to combine the individual layers into the binary flood mask, with a weighted combination of the layers computed based on the underlying land-use. An empirical sensitivity analysis showed that different low backscatter frequency thresholds work better in different regions, and thus, a fuzzy flood plausibility layer (FPL) is proposed as a post-processor. The FPL improves upon the current state-of-the-art sand exclusion layers (SELs) by combining distance from drainage with seasonally dark surfaces and shadows identified through annual SAR backscatter time series analysis. Additionally, known agricultural land-use areas with low values of Sentinel-2 based Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) are used to identify harvested croplands. S1-L1 was evaluated using (1) expert classified Sentinel-1 SAR-based flood maps and (2) with Sentinel-2 clear view coincident optical maps for the 2020 flood events in Ghana (September) and Republic of the Congo (November). S1-L1 performance is compared to (a) Otsu thresholding (liberal and conservative) and (b) a deterministic SEL  with >60% low backscatter frequency, to assess improvements over current best performing approaches for arid areas. First results demonstrated 50% false positive reductions over traditional Otsu approaches and consistent improvements of >20% in Critical Success Index values. Findings indicate that S1-L1 has the potential to efficiently differentiate between water and lookalike regions, and can facilitate more reliable SAR-based flood mapping in deserts.

How to cite: Dasgupta, A., Goodman, M., Yague Martinez, N., and Tellman, B.: Improving Operational SAR-based Flood Mapping in Arid Regions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6982, 2021.

EGU21-5943 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Call to action: Pushing scientific and technological innovation to develop an efficient AI flood mapper for operational SAR satellites

Guy J.-P. Schumann, Laura Giustarini, Moh Zare, and Ben Gaffinet

There is no doubt that the devastating socio-economic impacts associated with floods has been increasing. According to the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), floods represent the most frequent and most impacting, in terms of the number of people affected, among the weather-related disasters: nearly 1 billion people were affected by inundations in the last decade (2006–2015), while the overall economic damage is estimated to be more than $300 billion. Despite this evidence, and the awareness of the environmental role of rivers and their inundation, our capability to respond to and forecast floods remains relatively poor.

In this context, satellite sensors represent a highly valuable source of observation data that could fill many of the gaps, especially in remote areas and developing countries. In the last decade, with the proliferation of more satellite data and the advent of ESA’s operational Sentinel missions under the EC Copernicus open data programme, satellite images, in particular SAR, have been assisting flood disaster mitigation, response and recovery operations globally.

Although the number of state-of-the-art and innovative research studies in those areas is increasing, the full potential of remotely sensed data to enhance flood mapping has yet to be unlocked, especially the latency issue is not being sufficiently well addressed. Latency, i.e. the time between image acquisition to the flood map delivery to the person that actually needs it, is not at all in line with disaster response requirements and is, to a large extent, responsible for the slow uptake of EO-based products, such as flood maps, into an operational timeline or disaster response protocols of various potential user organizations, such as the UN World Food Programme for instance.

We call to develop a prototype or concept of a product. Specifically, a digital twin experiment should be developed first to generate a prototype AI-based algorithm that could be deployed onboard a SAR satellite to produce flood maps in real time. The mapping result, which consists of simple column/row (x/y) vector indices of flood edges in the form of a short “text message”, will be delivered to the field response teams via satellite communication technology for use within minutes, rather than many hours to days as is currently the case.

In this paper, we illustrate the concept of the proposed innovation, including the future possibility of in-orbit processing. This is in part a synthetic, proof-of-concept study, and, although the societal impact and value of the service prototype developed is clear, once successfully demonstrated, the economic value of this service as well as its market share and value can be established. At this point in time, there is no service of this type in existence. For optical/hyperspectral sensors on CubeSats, onboard AI-based processing has been trialed but not for SAR and not including a rapid flood map delivery service using AI. For instance, based on the results of an ESA-supported FDL Europe challenge, Mateo-Garcia et al. (2019) demonstrated the application of a fully convolutional neural network to prototype a GPU-based onboard flood segmentation system using degraded Sentinel-2 imagery (to mimic CubeSat capability).

How to cite: Schumann, G. J.-P., Giustarini, L., Zare, M., and Gaffinet, B.: Call to action: Pushing scientific and technological innovation to develop an efficient AI flood mapper for operational SAR satellites, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5943, 2021.

EGU21-10878 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Assimilation of inundation extent observations into a flood forecasting system:  a tempered particle filter for combatting degeneracy and sample impoverishment.

Concetta Di Mauro, Renaud Hostache, Patrick Matgen, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Nancy Nichols, and Günter Blöschl

Data assimilation uses observation for updating model variables and improving model output accuracy. In this study, flood extent information derived from Earth Observation data (namely Synthetic Aperture Radar images) are assimilated into a loosely coupled flood inundation forecasting system via a Particle Filter (PF). A previous study based on a synthetic experiment has shown the validity and efficiency of a recently developed PF-based assimilation framework allowing to effectively integrate remote sensing-derived probabilistic flood inundation maps into a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model. One of the main limitations of this recent framework based on sequential importance sampling is the sample degeneracy and impoverishment, as particles loose diversity and only few of them keep a substantial importance weight in the posterior distribution. In order to circumvent this limitation, a new methodology is adopted and evaluated: a tempered particle filter. The main idea is to update a set of state variables, namely through a smooth transition (iterative and adaptative process). To do so, the likelihood is factorized using small tempering factors. Each iteration includes subsequent resampling and mutation steps using a Monte Carlo Metropolis Hasting algorithm. The mutation step is required to regain diversity between the particles after the resampling. The new methodology is tested using synthetic twin experiments and the results are compared to the one obtained with the previous approach. The new proposed method enables to substantially improve the predictions of streamflow and water levels within the hydraulic domain at the assimilation time step. Moreover, the preliminary results show that these improvements are longer lasting. The proposed tempered particle filter also helps in keeping more diversity within the ensemble.

How to cite: Di Mauro, C., Hostache, R., Matgen, P., van Leeuwen, P. J., Nichols, N., and Blöschl, G.: Assimilation of inundation extent observations into a flood forecasting system:  a tempered particle filter for combatting degeneracy and sample impoverishment., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10878, 2021.

EGU21-10457 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

UAV-LiDAR observations increase the precision of urban flood modelling in Accra by detecting critical micro-topographic features

Katerina Trepekli, Thomas Friborg, Thomas Balstrøm, Bjarne Fog, Albert Allotey, Richard Yao Kofie, and Lasse Møller-Jensen

Rapidly expanding cities are exposed to higher damage potential from floods, necessitating effective proactive management using technological developments in remote sensing observations and hydrological modelling.  In this study we tested whether high resolution topographic data derived by Light and Detection Ranging (LiDAR) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems can facilitate rapid and precise identification of high-risk urban areas, at the local scale. Three flood prone areas located within the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area in Ghana were surveyed by a UAV-LiDAR system. In order to simulate a realistic flow of precipitation runoff on terrains, Digital Terrain Models (DTM) including buildings and urban features that may have a substantial effect on water flow pathways (DTMb) were generated from the UAV-LiDAR datasets. The resulting DTMbs, which had a spatial resolution of 0.3 m supplemented a satellite-based DTM of 10 m resolution covering the full catchment area of Accra, and applied to a hydrologic screening model (Arc-Malstrøm) to compare the flood simulations. The precision of the location, extent and capacity of landscape sinks were substantially improved when the DTMbs were utilized for mapping the flood propagation. The semi-low resolution DTM projected unrealistically shallower sinks, with larger extents but smaller capacities that consequently led to an overestimation of the runoff volume by 15% for a sloping site, and up to 65 % for 1st order sinks in flat terrains. The observed differences were attributed to the potential of high resolution DTMbs to detect urban manmade features like archways, boundary walls and bridges which were found to be critical in predictions of runoff’s courses, but could not be captured by the coarser DTM. Discrepancies in the derived water volumes using the satellite-based DTM vs. the UAV-LiDAR DTMbs were also traced to dynamic alterations in the geometry of streams and rivers, due to construction activities occurring in the interval between the aerial campaign and the date of acquisition of the commercially available DTM. Precise identification of urban flood prone areas can be enhanced using UAV-LiDAR systems, facilitating the design of comprehensive early flood-control measures, especially in urban settlements exposed to the adverse effects of perennial flooding. This research is funded by a grant awarded by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Danida).

How to cite: Trepekli, K., Friborg, T., Balstrøm, T., Fog, B., Allotey, A., Kofie, R. Y., and Møller-Jensen, L.: UAV-LiDAR observations increase the precision of urban flood modelling in Accra by detecting critical micro-topographic features, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10457, 2021.

EGU21-4584 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

A workflow to extract vegetated landscape elements from LiDAR point data to study their impact on surface runoff and downstream floods

Ine Rosier, Jan Diels, Ben Somers, and Jos Van Orshoven

Extensive areas throughout Europe are affected by river flooding. The frequency of these floods has considerably augmented in the past decades, resulting in substantial economic damage. In the strongly urbanized Flanders region of Belgium, insured losses due to floods are estimated at €40-75 million per year. So far little attention has been paid to off-site source areas of which hydrological behaviour influences the flood risk downstream in the catchment. These off-site areas have however the ability to either increase or reduce the exposure of downstream properties and infrastructures to floods. In rural European landscapes, these off-site areas are characterized by a variety of landscape elements (LSEs) such as hedgerows, trees, drainage ditches and terrace slopes. They affect river discharge and the frequency, extent, depth and duration of floods downstream by creating hydrological discontinuities and connections across the landscape but the magnitude of these effects is very much landscape specific.

We propose a hierarchical workflow to extract vegetated LSEs from LiDAR point data consisting of six steps: (1) selection of non-ground LiDAR points from an airborne LiDAR dataset with an average point density of at least 16 points per square meter, (2) extraction of geometry and eigenvalue based features for each point in the LiDAR point clouds, (3) supervised classification of the points into the classes ‘vegetated LSE’ and ‘other non-ground LiDAR points’ using a Random Forest classifier, (4) clustering of the classified vegetated LSE points by using the density-based clustering algorithm DBSCAN, (5) segmentation of the clustered points by calculating the concave hull per cluster, and (6) classification of the 2D objects into the vegetated LSE classes ‘tree objects’ (individual trees, tree groups and tree rows) and ‘shrub objects’ (bushes, hedgerows and woody edges) by using a Random Forest Classifier and a rule-based approach.

Our workflow was calibrated and tested on two undulating study areas in which the position and geometric characteristics of all vegetated LSEs were recorded in the summer of 2019 using a real-time kinematic GNSS device. The land use in both study areas is dominated by agricultural land. Step 3 of our workflow was validated by using a stratified ten-fold cross-validation method and resulted in a producer’s accuracy of 99% in distinguishing between vegetated LSE and other non-ground LiDAR point. Step 6 resulted in producer’s accuracies between 42% and 64% when distinguishing tree and shrub objects.

Further fine-tuning of the workflow by incorporating features based on point density distributions within LSE segments is expected to increase the classification accuracy. Our aim is to incorporate the classified 2D objects in spatially explicit hydrological models which will allow estimating their effect on river discharge and the frequency, extent, depth and duration of floods downstream.

How to cite: Rosier, I., Diels, J., Somers, B., and Van Orshoven, J.: A workflow to extract vegetated landscape elements from LiDAR point data to study their impact on surface runoff and downstream floods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4584, 2021.

EGU21-2991 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Remote sensing approach for the fluvial avulsion processes detection and mapping

Giulia Iacobucci, Francesco Troiani, Salvatore Milli, Daniela Piacentini, Paolo Mazzanti, Marta Zocchi, and Davide Nadali

The study of the riverscape dynamic in lowland areas is crucial for reconstructing the morphoevolution of the drainage network, especially where human activities have always been strongly connected to the river system. Not surprisingly, the Lower Mesopotamian Plain (LMP) represents the ideal study area, being a large floodplain where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers with their distributaries deposited a large volume of sediments during the Holocene. Here, a complex drainage pattern, characterized by paleochannels, levees and crevasse splays developed, representing the expression of several fluvial avulsion processes during the time. Indeed, the presence of recent and ancient crevasse splays in a given area suggests frequent seasonal floods, but at the same time, their formation and growth represent, in the LMP, an important process that conditioned the location of several human settlements since the 6th millennium BC. In this area, about 200 examples of active and abandoned crevasse splays, with various sizes, have been recognized exclusively through a remote sensing approach. The scarce elevation ranges of the LMP represent the main challenge in the detection and mapping of the crevasse splays features (i.e., channels, levees and deposits), in addition to the definition of the floodplain extension and the anthropic impact on channel networks.

Therefore, the research aims to integrate multi-sensor remote sensing data such as optical multispectral imagery and digital elevation datasets for improving the detection and mapping of crevasse splays. Landsat 8 imagery is adopted for computing two spectral indices (NDVI and Clay Ratio) and carrying on different supervised classification methods (i.e., Mahalanobis, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance and SAM). Each method has been evaluated through the computation of the confusion matrix, assessing the Overall Accuracy, K coefficient, Producer Accuracy and User Accuracy. Elevation data used in the topographic analysis to determine the local micro-relief geometry are derived from two different global DEMs available at the ground resolution of 1 arcsec (AW3D30 and GDEM2). Topographic analysis has been performed to complete and validate the supervised classification results.

The outputs successfully demonstrate the potential of the integration of multispectral imagery analysis and topographic analysis from DEM for detecting and mapping with a satisfactory detail the avulsion processes and for distinguishing their state of activity. The methodological approach is a promising technique for flood hazard and risk mapping, as well as for monitoring flood dynamics, especially within arid and semi-arid zones where flawless water management is essential for guaranteeing sustainable crops, livestock and avoiding wasting water.

How to cite: Iacobucci, G., Troiani, F., Milli, S., Piacentini, D., Mazzanti, P., Zocchi, M., and Nadali, D.: Remote sensing approach for the fluvial avulsion processes detection and mapping, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2991, 2021.

EGU21-16012 | vPICO presentations | HS6.5

Mapping, Monitoring, Forecasting and Assessing the Impact of Climate Change in Groundwater Systems in Ireland

Joan Campanyà i Llovet, Ted McCormack, Damien Doherty, Philip Schuler, Monika Kabza, Ellen Mullarkey, and Owen Naughton

In recent years Ireland has experienced significant and unprecedented flooding events, such as groundwater floods, that extended up to hundreds of hectares during the winter flood season, lasting for weeks to months, and affecting many rural communities in Ireland. In response to the serious flooding of winter 2015-2016, specifically related to groundwater, Geological Survey Ireland (GSI) initiated a project (GWFlood, 2016-2019), in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin (TCD) and Institute of Technology Carlow (ITC), to investigate the drivers, map and numerically model the extent of groundwater flooding in Ireland. Through this project, the use of remote sensing data, Sentinel-1 satellite imagery from the European Space Agency Copernicus program, was key to overcome the practical limitations of establishing and maintaining a national field-based monitoring network. The main outputs for this project included: 1) a national historic groundwater flood map, 2) a methodology for hydrograph generation using satellite images, and 3) predictive groundwater flood maps for Ireland.

Subsequently GSI started a new project (GWClimate, 2020-2022), in collaboration with ITC, to monitor floods in Ireland using remote sensing data, to enable short-term forecasting groundwater floods at a national scale, and to evaluate the potential that climate change may have on Irish groundwater resources, both in terms of flooding and drought issues. The GWClimate project is enhancing the tools developed by GWFlood in order to deliver: 1) seasonal flood maps for Ireland, 2) near-real time satellite-based hydrographs, 3) groundwater flood forecasting tools, and 4) maps evaluating the impact of climate change in groundwater systems in Ireland. The outputs of this project will contribute to monitor and quantify the impacts of flooding in Ireland at a national scale, improve the national capacity to understand how groundwater resources respond to climatic stresses, and improve the reliability of adaptation planning and predictions in the groundwater sector.

Data and maps from GWClimate and GWFlood projects are available at: 1) https://gwlevel.ie, and 2) https://www.gsi.ie/en-ie/programmes-and-projects/groundwater/activities/groundwater-flooding/gwflood-project-2016-2019/Pages/default.aspx

How to cite: Campanyà i Llovet, J., McCormack, T., Doherty, D., Schuler, P., Kabza, M., Mullarkey, E., and Naughton, O.: Mapping, Monitoring, Forecasting and Assessing the Impact of Climate Change in Groundwater Systems in Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16012, 2021.

Bathymetric data are a key parameter to assess shallow-water hydrodynamic processes. In-situ surveys provide high data quality; however, surveys are expensive and cover a limited spatial extent. To fill this gap, over recent years, the Satellite Derived Bathymetry (SDB) techniques have been developed. The present work aims to elaborate a technique to estimate bathymetric data from satellite images for intertidal zones. The method applied in this work is composed of 6 steps: (1) image querying and pre-processing is done through Google Earth Engine application (API) using Copernicus Sentinel 2A and B, product type 2A. (2) Identification of the intertidal zone for the study area by temporal variability of the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). (3) Recognition of the waterline in each image by the use of an adaptive threshold technique; and assignment of the elevation for each detected waterline based on local observed tide heights. (4) Validation of the estimated bathymetry by comparison with LiDAR measurements. (5) Implementation of a SDB correction: numerical and/or statistical and, (6) assessment of the validity of SDB for hydrodynamic modelling. The SDB technique was applied to 4 different estuaries in New Zealand: Maketu, Ohiwa, Whitianga and Tauranga Harbour showing similar or better estimations in comparison to previous works using optical or synthetic aperture radar (SAR). For Tauranga Harbour, results from the statistical and dynamical corrections showed that the major error source is due to the image optical properties and environmental conditions when the image was acquired (35%). However, the tidal propagation can significantly decrease the SDB accuracy (13%). Finally, the use of the SDB in numerical simulations does not present huge differences in the predicted waterlevels in comparison to the use of survey bathymetry, showing that SDB could be potentially used for coastal flooding simulations.  

How to cite: Costa, W., Bryan, K., and Coco, G.: A waterline method to derive intertidal bathymetry from multispectral satellite images and its application to hydrodynamic modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14286, 2021.

HS6.6 – Application of remotely sensed water cycle components in hydrological modelling

EGU21-3575 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

The effect of different contributing sensors in IMERG-Final precipitation estimates

Hooman Ayat, Jason Evans, and Ali Behrangi

Ground observation absence in many parts of the world highlights the importance of merged satellite precipitation products. In this study, we aim to evaluate the effect of different sources of data in the uncertainties of a merged satellite product, by comparing the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) final-product V06B with a ground-radar product, Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS), over eastern United-States during the hurricane days that occurred in 2016-2018 using both pixel-based and object-based approaches. The results showed that IMERG had better agreement in terms of the average precipitation intensity and area when the passive microwave (PMW) sensor overpass is matched instantaneously with MRMS in comparison with the temporally averaged MRMS data (MRMS-Averaged) with a bias reduction of 75% and 65%, respectively. PMW observations tend to show storms with smaller areas in the IMERG final product in comparison with MRMS, possibly due to the effect of light precipitation not detected properly by PMW sensors. However, by removing the light precipitation (less than 1mm/hr) in the object-based approach, hurricane objects in the IMERG final product tend to be larger during the PMW observations, which might be related to different viewing angles of sensors contributing to MRMS and IMERG products. Precipitation estimates in the IMERG final product have smaller areas with higher average intensity during the PMW observations compared to data estimated by Morph or IR (morph/IR) observations. It is probably related to the effect of morphing technique, leading to homogenization of the varying rainstorm characteristics. The quality of IMERG data changes with the longer absence of the PMW observations. IMERG data estimated by morph/IR observations, with a 30-minute time-distance to the nearest PMW observation, showed the best agreement with MRMS-Averaged even in comparison with PMW estimates, possibly due to the time-lag in recording the precipitation between satellites and ground-radars. It is also possible to be related to the homogenizing nature of morphing technique in IMERG and averaging MRMS data in time in MRMS-Averaged, relaxing the differences between PMW observations and MRMS. However, the morph/IR data quality deteriorates with the longer absence of PMW sensors. The inter-comparison of PMW sensors showed the priority of imagers over sounders with GMI as the best among imagers and MHS as the best among sounders in terms of correlation and average intensity compared to MRMS; however, SSMIS was the best in capturing the precipitation area.

How to cite: Ayat, H., Evans, J., and Behrangi, A.: The effect of different contributing sensors in IMERG-Final precipitation estimates, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3575, 2021.

EGU21-7428 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

The Suitability of Eight Spatial Rainfall Products to Simulate Daily Streamflow in Semi-Arid Watersheds using the HBV model

Hamza Ouatiki, Abdelghani Boudhar, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

Accurate rainfall measurements are crucial for hydrologic modeling. They are mainly provided by rain gauges (RGs), which cover only limited areas. Thus, the gauging network density and distribution can be real constraints in water-related studies, particularly in semi-arid regions. This is the case of Ait-Ouchene and Tilouguite, two mountainous sub-watersheds of the Oum-Rr-Rbia river basin, located in Morocco. Several freely available Spatial Rainfall Products (SRP), with quasi-global coverage, provide rainfall estimates that can constitute a potential complement to the RGs. In this context, we intend to investigate the suitability of eight SRPs (ARC2, CHIRPSp25km, CHIRPSp5km, CMORPH-CRT-V1, GPM-IMERG-V6, PERSIANN-CDR, RFE2, and TRMM-3B42-V7) for daily streamflow simulation in Ait-Ouchene and Tillouguite for the period 2001-2010. We proceeded by a pixel-wise and watershed-wise comparison against data of twenty-six RGs in Oum-Rr-Rbia, using the PCC (Pearson Correlation Coefficient), RMSE, Bias, POD (Detection Probability), and FAR (False Alarms Ratio) metrics. Then, the SRPs were used to annually calibrate the HBV conceptual rainfall-runoff model in Ait-Ouchene and Tilouguite. The SRP-driven simulations’ accuracy was assessed against the gauged streamflow using the NSE metric.

Primarily, the model was tested in Ait-Ouchene through cross-validation, parameter sensitivity, and parameter interdependency analyses, using the RG and MODIS-SCA observations. The results showed that the HBV model can fairly reproduce the observed streamflow, with year-to-year variable reliability. Additionally, the hydroclimatic changes appeared to actuate the model parameters’ interdependency. The latter were found to combine either to shrink the storage capacity of the model’s reservoirs under extremely high streamflow or enlarge them under overestimated water supply, mainly from snow cover. Thus, the snowmelt sub-routine was deactivated, during the evaluation process, to avoid the SWE compensating the bias in the SRP estimates.

Regarding the SRPs evaluation, the rainfall estimates performed relatively poorly for both direct comparison and hydrologic modeling. Most SRPs yielded PCCs below 0.5, except for IMERG and RFE. They exhibited PCCs between 0.54-0.62 (IMERG) and 0.47-0.71 (RFE) at 50% of the RGs, with IMERG performing the best at eighteen out of the twenty-six RGs. IMERG prevalence was also observed in terms of detection capacity showing the highest PODs alongside PERSIANN. The SRPs detected many rainfall events as false alarms, with median FARs greater than 0.52. However, an analysis, where we considered only the grid-cells encompassing more than one RG, revealed that a portion of the false alarms were rainfalls that fell in the RGs’ vicinity. Moreover, the rainfall estimates were substantially biased, where the large rainfall totals were predominantly underestimated. For streamflow simulation, the SRPs’ performance seemed unsteady and varied depending on years and products. While IMERG and RFE frequently produced the best NSEs, CMORPH consistently showed the weakest results. In addition to the important bias contained in the SRP estimates, the low performance in hydrologic modeling can be related to the abundance of insignificant false alarms. Nevertheless, the SRPs provided better streamflow estimates than the RGs in Tillouguite, which has an unevenly distributed gauging network concentrated near the outlet.

How to cite: Ouatiki, H., Boudhar, A., and Chehbouni, A.: The Suitability of Eight Spatial Rainfall Products to Simulate Daily Streamflow in Semi-Arid Watersheds using the HBV model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7428, 2021.

EGU21-14352 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

Evaluation of gridded near surface air temperature datasets across complex terrain 

Çağrı Hasan Karaman and Zuhal Akyurek

Near surface air temperature is a key variable used in wide range of applications showing environmental conditions across the earth. Standard meteorological observations generally provide the best estimation with high accuracy over time for a small area of influence. However, considerable uncertainty arises when point measurements are extrapolated or interpolated over much larger areas. Satellite remote sensing data have emerged as a viable alternative or supplement to in situ observations due to their availability over vast ungauged regions. Thus, spatial patterns of air temperature can be derived from satellite remote sensing.

In this study, we evaluate the performance of several satellite-based products of near surface air temperature to determine the best product in estimating daily and monthly air temperatures. Era5 Land, SMAP Level 4, AgERA5, MERRA2 products are used with 1120 ground-based gauge stations for the period 2015-2019 over complex terrain and different climate classes according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification in Turkey. Moreover, several traditional and more sophisticated machine learning downscaling algorithms are applied to increase products’ spatial resolution. The agreement between ground observations and the different products and the downscaled temperature product is investigated using a set of commonly used statistical estimators of mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias.

Performance analysis of satellite-based air temperature products with ground-based observations on monthly time series has shown that ERA5 Land and SMAP L4 products have similar capabilities. However, analysis on daily time series depicted that ERA5 Land is superior to SMAP L4 product. Results indicate that bicubic interpolation performs best on downscaling Era5 Land product daily time series. However, Random Forest algorithm is superior on monthly time series.

How to cite: Karaman, Ç. H. and Akyurek, Z.: Evaluation of gridded near surface air temperature datasets across complex terrain , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14352, 2021.

EGU21-3151 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

Increased Temperatures Overwhelm Precipitation Changes Leading to Streamflow Declines in the Colorado River Basin

Kristen Whitney, Enrique Vivoni, Theodore Bohn, Zhaocheng Wang, Mu Xiao, and Giuseppe Mascaro

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced widespread and prolonged drought in the 21st century with recent precipitation (P) up to 25% below historical means and air temperature (T) up to 0.8 oC warmer. The extent that continued warming will lead to streamflow (Q) decline is unclear given the high interannual variability of P. Here we explore physically plausible ways that climate change could impact Q using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We integrated advances in VIC using Landsat- and MODIS-based products to produce more realistic land surface conditions and used this setup to simulate long-range Q projections. Meteorological datasets were sourced from gridded daily observations (1950-2013) and downscaled historical (1950-2005) and future projections (2006-2099) derived from multiple CMIP5 models under a low and a high emission scenario to explore forcing uncertainties and cases where P increase could offset warming. We compared the impacts of anticipated climate change on hydrologic responses in subbasins key for water management to gauge their importance for basin-wide water budgets and how these relationships could evolve in time, as this has been a largely unexplored aspect in the CRB. Results showed that spatial gradients in seasonal P changes led to contrasting seasonal responses in runoff (R) across the CRB. Whereas most of the Upper Basin had a shift to greater R during the winter, summer R declined over most of the CRB due to heightened evapotranspiration in the northwest (Green, Upper Colorado, Glen Canyon, and Grand Canyon subbasins) and large P decline in the southeast (San Juan, Little Colorado, and Gila subbasins). The strength of seasonal runoff signals across different climate models and their impacts to annual Q were dependent on subbasin area and emission scenario. Annual Q at the CRB outlet declined in most cases, however, reflecting the pervasive drying effect of warming.

How to cite: Whitney, K., Vivoni, E., Bohn, T., Wang, Z., Xiao, M., and Mascaro, G.: Increased Temperatures Overwhelm Precipitation Changes Leading to Streamflow Declines in the Colorado River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3151, 2021.

The method is developed to calculate soil water content W, evapotranspiration Ev and other water and heat regime (WHR) characteristics of agricultural regions for vegetation season (VS). The base of the method is the physical-mathematical model of vertical water and heat transfer in the “Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere” system (SVAT), suitable for utilizing satellite-retrieved estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics such as vegetation index NDVI, emissivity E, vegetation cover fraction B, leaf area index LAI, precipitation, and land surface temperature LST. These estimates were built under thematic processing satellite data obtained by radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, SEVIRI/Meteosat-10, -11, -8; MSU-MR/Meteor-M No 2 in visible and IR ranges. Soil and vegetation characteristics were the model parameters and meteorological characteristics were considered to be the input variables.

The case study was carried out for forest-steppe territory of 227,300 km2 located in the Central Black Earth Region of European Russia, for steppe black earth Rostov region of 100,000 km2, and for arid steppe territory of the Saratov and Volgograd Trans-Volga region of 66,600 km2 for VS of 2017-2018.

Estimates of daily, ten-day and monthly precipitation sums were carried out using the Multi Threshold Method for detecting cloudiness, identifying its types, allocating precipitation zones and determining rainfall intensity maximum. The key point of the method is the transition from assessing the rainfall intensity to estimating its daily sums.Comparing calculated daily, ten-day and monthly rainfall sums with each other for all sensors and with similar ground-based data showed the coincidence of the satellite-detected and actual precipitation zones in 75-85% of cases for each radiometer.

Satellite LST estimates were retrieved by the Generalized Split-Window method using the regression equations for the satellite-measured radiation temperature. Comparison of these estimates with each other for all radiometers, with the model calculation results and with ground-measured air temperature values for named VS showed their differences to be within acceptable limits.

Because of the different climatic conditions in the study areas, the empirical formulae to calculate B and LAI were analyzed and their detailed estimates were made, the errors of which were about 15 and 20%, respectively.

The possibility to use soil surface moisture estimates obtained from the scatterometer ASCAT/MetOp data in the microwave range for modeling is shown (to select initial conditions when calculating W and to assess evaporation from soil surface).

To calculate W, Ev and other WHR components the developed procedures to assimilate satellite-retrieved B, LAI, precipitation and LST estimates in the model were adapted to the territories under study. These procedures included replacing ground-based estimates of these values by their satellite-retrieved estimates in all computational grid nodes at each time step. The efficiency of these procedures was confirmed by comparing modeled and measured values of W and Ev. The final modeling results are distributions of W, Ev and other WHR components over the areas of interest. Estimation errors for W (10-15%) and Ev (20-25%) (even for the arid Trans-Volga region) are acceptable values.

As a conclusion, the developed method can be used to assess water resource components for vast agricultural regions.

How to cite: Muzylev, E., Startseva, Z., Volkova, E., and Vasilenko, E.: Utilization of satellite data on meteorological and land surface characteristics in the model of water and heat exchange for vast agricultural region territories , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6739, 2021.

EGU21-4172 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

Overview of terrestrial water storage changes over the Indus River Basin based on GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions

Yu Zhu, Shiyin Liu, Ying Yi, Fuming Xie, and Wenfei Miao

The Indus River Basin (the Indus) is facing the threat of great water shortages due to rapid population growth, expanding of irrigation area and increasing meltwater from snow and ice under the background of global warming. Being a less gauged basin, the effective usage of water resources in the Indus is always challenged by the high variability of the surface and ground water under a warming climate. This study therefore aimed to characterize and uncover the driving force of changes in water storage in the Indus based on GRACE and GRACE-FO solutions. A series of statistical techniques, such as EOF, modified STL, and Mann-Kenddall test, were applied to quantify and attribute the spatiotemporal patterns of the water storage dynamics. Our results demonstrated that (1) terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) of the basin displayed a deficit and the deficit was largely concentrated in the middle and upper Indus plain (MUIP) during 2002 and 2020. (2) A slight decline in TWSA in the upper Indus basin (UIB) might be attributed to the accelerated melting of glacier and snow cover. (3) The excessive withdrawal of groundwater (1.57 mm/month) dominated the decrease of TWSA over the MUIP although weak increase of precipitation happened in the region. Anthropogenic activities imposed approximately 86.9% impact of the decrease in groundwater and this impact will aggravate for a long time if no effective water management schemes are taken. (4) Influenced by favorable meteorological conditions, the precipitation presented positive trend against the weakness of the India Summer Monsoon and the Westerlies, which exerted the positive influence on TWSA.

How to cite: Zhu, Y., Liu, S., Yi, Y., Xie, F., and Miao, W.: Overview of terrestrial water storage changes over the Indus River Basin based on GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4172, 2021.

EGU21-2130 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

Establishing a water balance of an Alpine catchment using satellite data

Roberta Perico, Paolo Frattini, Giovanni Battista Crosta, and Philip Brunner

Attaining a comprehensive and reliable water balance of snow-dominated alpine catchments is fundamental for a holistic representation of the hydrological and hydrogeological processes. In fact, their contribution to the water balance is extremely important for the water resources management and for a reliable estimation of groundwater recharge. A major limitation to the elaboration of these balances in alpine terrain are the difficultly of data acquisition as well as the limited presence of meteorological stations. These two factors considerably increase the uncertainty of water balances. Remotely sensed data can provide valuable information for the balance elaboration at a regional scale.  Among the satellite data available, the Sentinel data, collected in the ESA missions in the last 6 years, has provided free and global access of observations including optical, thermal, and microwave sensors with high spatial and temporal resolutions.

In the present work, we estimated groundwater recharge (R) for the last two hydrologic years (from March 2018 to March 2020), based on satellite data. For this purpose, the most recent methods and databases based on satellite observations were tested:  time series of the precipitation (P), the snow water equivalent (SWE), and the evapotranspiration (ET) were retrieved in an extensive Alpine catchment (26,000 km2) located in northern Italy. Daily precipitation was calculated from PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS, Hong et al. 2004) database at the resolution of 4.0 km.  ET was estimated with the combined use of Sentinel 2 and 3 satellites (Guzinski et al., 2020) at a resolution of 20 m and with weekly return period. The weekly SWE was calculated starting from Sentienl 1 (C-SNOW database, Lievens et al., 2019) and Sentienl 2, at the spatial resolution of 30 m.

Based on available measurements of P, ET, and snow depth in the catchment, the uncertainty of the hydrologic estimations was quantified. We further carried out a sensitivity analysis, considering the physiographic parameters (altitude, slope, and aspect) and the seasonal conditions. For SWE estimates, an altitude-dependent effect and a lower accuracy in the snowmelt phase have been observed. The results show that the adopted satellite-based methods allow obtaining consistent and physically realistic values of recharge, with relatively low uncertainty.

References:

  • Guzinski, R., Nieto, H., Sandholt, I., & Karamitilios, G. (2020). Modelling High-Resolution Actual Evapotranspiration through Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 Data Fusion. Remote Sensing, 12(9), 1433.
  • Hong, Y., Hsu, K. L., Sorooshian, S., & Gao, X. (2004). Precipitation estimation from remotely sensed imagery using an artificial neural network cloud classification system. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 43(12), 1834-1853.
  • Lievens, H., Demuzere, M., Marshall, H. P., Reichle, R. H., Brucker, L., Brangers, I., ... & Jonas, T. (2019). Snow depth variability in the Northern Hemisphere mountains observed from space. Nature communications, 10(1), 1-12.

How to cite: Perico, R., Frattini, P., Crosta, G. B., and Brunner, P.: Establishing a water balance of an Alpine catchment using satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2130, 2021.

EGU21-14670 | vPICO presentations | HS6.6

Understory biomass estimation based on Structure from Motion data by Multi-layered forest drone survey

Yupan Zhang, Yuichi Onda, Hiroaki Kato, Xinchao Sun, and Takashi Gomi

Understory vegetation is an important part of evapotranspiration from forest floor. Forest management changes the forest structure and then affects the understory vegetation biomass (UVB). Quantitative measurement and estimation of  UVB is a step cannot be ignored in the study of forest ecology and forest evapotranspiration. However, large-scale biomass measurement and estimation is challenging. In this study, Structure from Motion (SfM) was adopted simultaneously at two different layers in a plantation forest made by Japanese cedar and Japanese cypress to reconstruct forest structure from understory to above canopy: i) understory drone survey in a 1.1h sub-catchment to generate canopy height model (CHM) based on dense point clouds data derived from a manual low-flying drone under the canopy; ii) Above-canopy drone survey in whole catchment (33.2 ha) to compute canopy openness data based on point clouds of canopy derived from an autonomous flying drone above the canopy. Combined with actual biomass data from field harvesting to develop regression models between the CHM and UVB, which was then used to map spatial distribution of  UVB in sub-catchment. The relationship between UVB and canopy openness data was then developed by overlap analysis. This approach yielded high resolution understory over catchment scale with a point cloud density of more than 20 points/cm2. Strong coefficients of determination (R-squared = 0.75) of the cubic model supported prediction of UVB from CHM, the average UVB was 0.82kg/m2 and dominated by low ferns. The corresponding forest canopy openness in this area was 42.48% on average. Overlap analysis show no significant interactions between them in a cubic model with weak predictive power (R-squared < 0.46). Overall, we reconstructed the multi-layered structure of the forest and provided models of UVB. Understory survey has high accuracy for biomass measurement, but it’s inherently difficult to estimate UVB only based on canopy openness result.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Onda, Y., Kato, H., Sun, X., and Gomi, T.: Understory biomass estimation based on Structure from Motion data by Multi-layered forest drone survey, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14670, 2021.

HS6.7 – Irrigation estimates and management from remote sensing and hydrological modelling

EGU21-1115 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Detection and quantification of irrigation water amounts at sub-kilometric scale using Sentinel-1 surface soil moisture

Luca Zappa, Stefan Schlaffer, Claas Nendel, and Wouter Dorigo

Detailed information about the timing and the amount of water used for irrigation at a high spatial resolution is critical for monitoring and improving agricultural water use efficiency. However, neither statistical surveys nor current remote sensing-based approaches can accommodate this need. Being a natural source of information on the amount of water entering the ground, soil moisture is directly related to irrigation and precipitation. Hence, we present a novel approach based on the TU Wien Sentinel-1 Surface Soil Moisture product to fill this gap, i.e. detect and quantify irrigation water amounts at sub-kilometric scale. Theoretically, irrigation occurring in a specific field should be reflected by a local increase in soil moisture, while surrounding non-irrigated fields exhibit a different behavior.  We harness the spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture to identify individual irrigation events, and then to estimate irrigation water heights. To retrieve the latter we include formulations of evapotranspiration and drainage as such vertical fluxes have a significant impact on sub-daily soil moisture variations. The proposed approach is evaluated against field scale irrigation data reported by farmers at three sites in Germany with heterogeneous field sizes, crop patterns, irrigation systems and management. 
Our results show that most irrigation events occurring in a field can be detected using soil moisture information at 500 m and 1-3 days resolution, however, lower accuracy is found during the peak of the growing season. The retrieved irrigation water heights increase with the fraction of pixel under irrigation as higher water amounts are expected over largely irrigated pixels. Finally, irrigation estimates are in agreement with reference data, in terms of temporal dynamics as well as spatial patterns, regardless of field-specific characteristics (e.g. crop type, irrigation system). Unlike most approaches based on microwave soil moisture data, the proposed framework does not rely on additional datasets, which are either locally available or do not even exist at (sub-) kilometric resolution. Hence, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied over large regions with varying cropping systems (e.g. national and even continental scale). 

How to cite: Zappa, L., Schlaffer, S., Nendel, C., and Dorigo, W.: Detection and quantification of irrigation water amounts at sub-kilometric scale using Sentinel-1 surface soil moisture, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1115, 2021.

EGU21-2153 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Preventing waterlogging in irrigated agriculture with a multi-satellite sensor approach

Nadja den Besten, Susan Steele-Dunne, Richard de Jeu, and Pieter van der Zaag

Satellite sensors have been used widely to determine water shortages to detect crop stress, with special emphasis on water stress. However, stress resulting from waterlogging has so far received little attention. This is surprising because approximately twenty percent of the global agricultural land suffers from the consequences of waterlogging and secondary soil salinization. While irrigation is expected to increase productivity, excess water can hamper the crop growth and decrease water use efficiency.

Traditionally, satellite driven water accounting for irrigation assistance uses optical and/or thermal sensors that can detect crop stress. The observed crop stress is often interpreted as water stress, whereby stress resulting from waterlogging cannot be distinguished. We hypothesize that a multi-sensor approach is required to distinguish waterlogging from water shortage, by including microwave observations that can determine the soil moisture status. However, localizing a small-scale phenomena as waterlogging with multi-sensor data with different resolutions is a major challenge.

In our research we focus on an irrigated sugarcane plantation along the river Incomati in Xinavane, Mozambique. Waterlogging is a common issue in the estate and is threatening productivity. We assess and combine optical and passive microwave data for a large drought (2016) and flooding event (2012) to look at the possibility of downscaling the data for detection of waterlogging. We find that optical indices are able to localize waterlogged areas. Additionally, the built up of the drought event and retreat of the flooding event are clearly visible in the brightness temperature in different frequencies. We demonstrate a procedure to combine brightness temperature with optical data to detect waterlogging at a higher spatial resolution. 

The results show that a combination of optical and passive microwave data can detect regions within the sugarcane plantation of waterlogging. However, high resolution topographic data is required to enhance the detection of waterlogging to finer scales. 

How to cite: den Besten, N., Steele-Dunne, S., de Jeu, R., and van der Zaag, P.: Preventing waterlogging in irrigated agriculture with a multi-satellite sensor approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2153, 2021.

EGU21-2212 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

On the ability of Sentinel-1 backscatter to detect soil moisture and vegetation changes caused by irrigation fluxes over the Po River Valley (Italy)

Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Luca Brocca, Hans Lievens, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle De Lannoy

Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising because of an increasing food demand. In this context, the detection and quantification of irrigation is crucial, but the availability of ground observations is limited. Therefore, an increasing number of studies are focusing on the use of models and satellite data to detect and quantify irrigation. For instance, the parameterization of irrigation in large scale Land Surface Models (LSM) is improving, but it is still characterized by simplifying assumptions, such as the lack of dynamic crop information, the extent of irrigated areas, and the mostly unknown timing and amount of irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by, and hence potentially able to detect, irrigation. Therefore, combining models and satellite information through data assimilation can offer a viable way to quantify the water used for irrigation.

The aim of this study is to test how well modelled soil moisture and vegetation estimates from the Noah-MP LSM, with or without irrigation parameterization in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), are able to mimic in situ observations or to capture the signal of high-resolution Sentinel-1 backscatter observations in an irrigated area. The experiments were carried out over select sites in the Po river Valley, an important agricultural area in Northern Italy. To prepare for a data assimilation system, Level-1 Sentinel-1 backscatter observations, aggregated and sampled onto the 1 km EASE-v2 grid, were used to calibrate a Water Cloud Model (WCM) using simulated soil moisture and Leaf Area Index estimates. The WCM was calibrated with and without activating an irrigation scheme in Noah-MP. Results demonstrate that the use of the irrigation scheme provides the optimal calibration of the WCM, confirming the ability of Sentinel-1 to track the impact of human activities on the water cycle. Additionally, a first data assimilation experiment demonstrates the potential of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations to correct errors in Land Surface Model (LSM) simulations that are caused by unmodelled or wrongly modelled irrigation.

How to cite: Modanesi, S., Massari, C., Gruber, A., Brocca, L., Lievens, H., Morbidelli, R., and De Lannoy, G.: On the ability of Sentinel-1 backscatter to detect soil moisture and vegetation changes caused by irrigation fluxes over the Po River Valley (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2212, 2021.

EGU21-2914 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Irrigation Estimates from Remote Sensing Soil Moisture: A District-Scale Analysis in Spain

Jacopo Dari, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Vivien Stefan, Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, and Luca Brocca

Irrigation represents a primary source of anthropogenic water consumption, whose effects impact on the natural distribution of water on the Earth’s surface and on food production. Over anthropized basins, irrigation often represents the missing variable to properly close the hydrological balance. Despite this, detailed information on the amounts of water actually applied for irrigation is lacking worldwide. In this study, a method to estimate irrigation volumes applied over a heavily irrigated area in the North East of Spain through high-resolution (1 km) remote sensing soil moisture is presented. Two DISPATCH (DISaggregation based on Physical And Theoretical scale CHange) downscaled data sets have been used: SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity). The SMAP experiment covers the period from January 2016 to September 2017, while the SMOS experiment is referred to the time span from January 2011 to September 2017. The irrigation amounts have been retrieved through the SM2RAIN algorithm, in which the guidelines provided in the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) paper n.56 about the crop evapotranspiration have been implemented for a proper modeling of the crop evapotranspiration. A more detailed analysis has been performed in the context of the SMAP experiment. In fact, the spatial distribution and the temporal occurrence of the irrigation events have been investigated. Furthermore, the loss of accuracy of the irrigation estimates when using different sources for the evapotranspiration data has been assessed. In order to do this, the SMAP experiment has been repeated by forcing the SM2RAIN algorithm with several evapotranspiration data sets, both calculated and observed. Finally, the merging of the results obtained through the two experiments has produced a data set of almost 7 years of irrigation estimated from remote sensing soil moisture.

How to cite: Dari, J., Quintana-Seguí, P., Escorihuela, M. J., Stefan, V., Morbidelli, R., Saltalippi, C., Flammini, A., and Brocca, L.: Irrigation Estimates from Remote Sensing Soil Moisture: A District-Scale Analysis in Spain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2914, 2021.

EGU21-4210 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Using short-term ensemble weather forecast to evaluate outcomes of irrigation

Danlu Guo, Andrew Western, Quan Wang, Dongryeol Ryu, Peter Moller, and David Aughton

Irrigation water is an expensive and limited resource. Previous studies show that irrigation scheduling can boost efficiency by 20-60%, while improving water productivity by at least 10%. In practice, scheduling decisions are often needed several days prior to an irrigation event, so a key aspect of irrigation scheduling is the accurate prediction of crop water use and soil water status ahead of time. This prediction relies on several key inputs such as soil water, weather and crop conditions. Since each input can be subject to its own uncertainty, it is important to understand how these uncertainties impact soil water prediction and subsequent irrigation scheduling decisions.

This study aims to evaluate the outcomes of alternative irrigation scheduling decisions under uncertainty, with a focus on the uncertainties arising from short-term weather forecast. To achieve this, we performed a model-based study to simulate crop root-zone soil water content, in which we comprehensively explored different combinations of ensemble short-term rainfall forecast and alternative decisions of irrigation scheduling. This modelling produced an ensemble of soil water contents to enable quantification of risks of over- and under-irrigation; these ensemble estimates were summarized to inform optimal timing of next irrigation event to minimize both the risks of stressing crop and wasting water. With inclusion of other sources of uncertainty (e.g. soil water observation, crop factor), this approach shows good potential to be extended to a comprehensive framework to support practical irrigation decision-making for farmers.

How to cite: Guo, D., Western, A., Wang, Q., Ryu, D., Moller, P., and Aughton, D.: Using short-term ensemble weather forecast to evaluate outcomes of irrigation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4210, 2021.

EGU21-4307 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Coupling Hydrus-1D and METRIC models to estimate soil water balance of a highly heterogeneous agricultural field

Ester Zancanaro, Nicola Dal Ferro, Jacopo Furlanetto, Matteo Longo, Pietro Teatini, and Francesco Morari

Understanding spatiotemporal variability of agricultural fields is fundamental for the definition of dynamic management zones and enhancing precision irrigation techniques. Accurate crop evapotranspiration (ET) estimation helps understanding the hydrological dynamics that characterize the root zone, particularly with highly heterogeneous conditions. The FAO method for the ET estimation is the most widely used in hydrological modeling. However, this approach is only partly effective in describing the spatial variability of water and salt stress at the subfield scale. Recently, remote sensing has been utilized as a viable tool for capturing the actual crop ET (ETa) at different scales but its coupling with hydrological modeling is still challenging. In this study, an original method was developed to integrate the hydrological model Hydrus-1D with the satellite-based energy balance METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution with Internalized Calibration) model. To this end, a two-year trial was conducted in a maize field located in the southern margin of the Venice Lagoon, characterized by heterogeneous soil properties and seawater intrusion. Five automatic monitoring stations were installed to investigate soil physical characteristics and hydrological dynamics. Undisturbed soil cores were collected and analyzed to determine soil water retention curves and hydraulic conductivity. Disturbed soil sample were analyzed for texture and chemical properties. Volumetric water content and matric potential were hourly monitored at 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7 m, while data of depth to the water table were collected every week. Meteorological data were retrieved from an on-site weather station. Two approaches were used for modeling and optimizing the water dynamics. Firstly, water content and pressure head data collected in the field were used as input to Hydrus-1D and the inverse method was applied for the optimization of the water retention curve. Then, METRIC was coupled with Hydrus-1D, by using the ETa calculated from Landsat 8 images as forcing variable to enhance the inverse solution. Preliminary results highlighted that the integration of Hydrus-1D and METRIC model allowed to capture the different hydrological dynamics found at the five stations.

How to cite: Zancanaro, E., Dal Ferro, N., Furlanetto, J., Longo, M., Teatini, P., and Morari, F.: Coupling Hydrus-1D and METRIC models to estimate soil water balance of a highly heterogeneous agricultural field, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4307, 2021.

EGU21-4987 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

In-season crop classification using optical remote sensing with random forest over irrigated agricultural fields in Australia

Zitian Gao, Danlu Guo, Dongryeol Ryu, and Andrew Western

Timely classification of crop types is critical for agronomic planning in water use and crop production. However, crop type mapping is typically undertaken only after the cropping season, which precludes its uses in later-season water use planning and yield estimation. This study aims 1) to understand how the accuracy of crop type classification changes within cropping season and 2) to suggest the earliest time that it is possible to achieve reliable crop classification. We focused on three main summer crops (corn/maize, cotton and rice) in the Coleambally Irrigation Area (CIA), a major irrigation district in south-eastern Australia consisting of over 4000 fields, for the period of 2013 to 2019. The summer irrigation season in the CIA is from mid-August to mid-May and most farms use surface irrigation to support the growth of summer crops. We developed models that combine satellite data and farmer-reported information for in-season crop type classification. Monthly-averaged Landsat spectral bands were used as input to Random Forest algorithm. We developed multiple models trained with data initially available at the start of the cropping season, then later using all the antecedent images up to different stages within the season. We evaluated the model performance and uncertainty using a two-fold cross validation by randomly choosing training vs. validation periods. Results show that the classification accuracy increases rapidly during the first three months followed by a marginal improvement afterwards. Crops can be classified with a User’s accuracy above 70% based on the first 2-3 months after the start of the season. Cotton and rice have higher in-season accuracy than corn/maize. The resulting crop maps can be used to support activities such as later-season system scale irrigation decision-making or yield estimation at a regional scale.

Keywords: Landsat 8 OLI, in-season, multi-year, crop type, Random Forest

How to cite: Gao, Z., Guo, D., Ryu, D., and Western, A.: In-season crop classification using optical remote sensing with random forest over irrigated agricultural fields in Australia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4987, 2021.

EGU21-5353 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Detection of irrigated and rainfed crop fields in temperate areas using Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and rainfall time series

Yann Pageot, Frédéric Baup, Jordi Inglada, and Valérie Demarez

Human activities have an impact on the different components of the hydrosphere and 80 % of the world's population is now facing water shortages that will worsen with global warming. Faced with this emergency situation, it is necessary to develop adaptation strategies to monitor and manage water resources for the entire population and to maintain agricultural activity. One of the adaptation strategies that has been favoured is the management of crop irrigation to optimize the use of scarce water ressources.

To meet this objective, it is necessary to have explicit information on irrigated areas. However, up to now, this information is missing or imprecise at the field scale (it is only produced as aggregated statistics or maps at the regional or national scales). In this work, we propose a method for detecting irrigated and rainfed plots in a temperate areas (Adour-Amont watershed of 1500 km² located in south-western France) jointly using optical (Sentinel-2), radar (Sentinel-1) and rainfall (SAFRAN) time series, through the random forest classification algorithm. This spectral information was synthesized in the form of cumulative monthly indices corresponding to the sum of the spectral information for each element (optical, radar, rainfall). This cumulative approach makes it possible to reduce the redundancy of the spectral information and the calculation time of the classification process.

The summer crops studied were maize, soybean and sunflower, representing respectively 82%, 9% and 8% of the crops cultivated of the studied area, but only part of these crops were irrigated. In order to make the distinction for the same crop, we assume that the speed and amplitude of canopy development differs between irrigated and rainfed crop. Five scenarios were used to evaluate the performance of classification models. They have been built according to the different spatialized data, i.e (Optic; Radar; Optic & Radar; Optic, Radar & Rainfall and 10-day images, which is reference scenario without the cumulative monthly indices). Finally, generated classification maps were evaluated using ground truth data collected during 2 years with contrasted meteorological conditions.

The use of separate radar and optical data gives low results (Overall Accuracy (OA) < 0.5) compared to the combined classifications of the cumulated data set (optical & radar), which gives good results (OA ± 0.7). The use of the monthly cumulated rainfall allows a significant improvement of the Fscore of the irrigated and rainfed crop classes. Our study also reveals that the use of cumulative monthly indices leads to performances similar to those of the use of 10-day images while considerably reducing computational resources.

How to cite: Pageot, Y., Baup, F., Inglada, J., and Demarez, V.: Detection of irrigated and rainfed crop fields in temperate areas using Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and rainfall time series, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5353, 2021.

EGU21-7379 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7 | Highlight

Copernicus satellites for supporting irrigation and water management in Australia: the COALA H2020 Project.

Guido D Urso, Carlo De Michele, Vuolo Francesco, Calera Alfonso, Osann Anna, Dongryeol Ryu, and Metternicht Graciela

COALA is a project funded by the Horizon 2020 program of the European Union with the aim of developing Copernicus Earth Observation-based information services for irrigation and nutrient management in Australia, building on consolidated experience of past EU projects and existing operational irrigation advisory services. Earth Observation-based services can provide “diagnostic” data and information relevant for integrated input management of irrigation water and nutrients, from subplot level to irrigation scheme or river basin levels.

COALA, started on January 2020, is developing Copernicus-based information service for the Australian agricultural systems, based on strong collaboration with Academic Australian institutions and business players. COALA services will provide to farmers, irrigation organisation and basin authorities information about crops development, water and nutrient status, irrigated areas by means of innovative algorithms based on Sentinel Earth Observation data, which will be accessed by means of the new cloud platforms (DIAS) of Copernicus. In-situ and other source of data, such as ground soil moisture probes, meteorological stations and Numerical Weather Prediction models, will be used to improve the information provided to the final users.

The advancements beyond the state of art of COALA methodologies for managing irrigation are:

COALA will demonstrate that Copernicus data and new DIAS infrastructure can greatly improve the availability of a multi-scale information product shared by the different levels of users. The innovative approach achieves a "converging loop procedure" between water authority, irrigation infrastructure operation and farmers, enabling transparency in all the decision taken at all levels and improving the accuracy of estimation of actual water use.

https://www.coalaproject.eu/

How to cite: D Urso, G., De Michele, C., Francesco, V., Alfonso, C., Anna, O., Ryu, D., and Graciela, M.: Copernicus satellites for supporting irrigation and water management in Australia: the COALA H2020 Project., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7379, 2021.

EGU21-13345 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7 | Highlight

Irrigation management through a coupled energy-water balance and crop growth model driven by remote sensing data

Marco Mancini, Chiara Corbari, Imen Ben Charfi, Ahmad Al Bitar, Drazen Skokovic, Jose Sobrino, and Giacomo Branca

The conflicting use of water is becoming more and more evident, also in regions that are traditionally rich in water. With the world’s population projected to increase to 8.5 billion by 2030, the simultaneous growth in income will imply a substantial increase in demand for both water and food. Climate change impacts will further stress the water availability enhancing also its conflictual use. The agricultural sector is the biggest and least efficient water user, accounts for around 24% of total water use in Europe, peaking at 80% in the southern regions.

This paper shows the implementation of a system for real-time operative irrigation water management at high spatial and temporal able to monitor the crop water needs reducing the irrigation losses and increasing the water use efficiency, according to different agronomic practices supporting different level of water users from irrigation consortia to single farmers. The system couples together satellite (land surface temperature LST and vegetation information) and ground data, with pixel wise hydrological crop soil water energy balance model. In particular, the SAFY (Simple Algorithm for Yield) crop model has been coupled with the pixel wise energy water balance FEST-EWB model, which assimilate satellite LST for its soil parameters calibration. The essence of this coupled modelling is that the SAFY provides the leaf area index (LAI) evolution in time used by the FEST-EWB for evapotranspiration computation while FEST-EWB model provides soil moisture (SM) to SAFY model for computing crop grow for assigned water content.

The FEST-EWB-SAFY has been firstly calibrated in specific fields of Chiese (maize crop) and Capitanata (tomatoes) where ground measurements of evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop yields are available, as well as LAI from Sentinel2-Landsat 7 and 8 data. The FEST-EWB-SAFY model has then been validated also on several fields of the RICA farms database in the two Italian consortia, where the economic data are available plus the crop yield. Finally, the modelled maps of LAI have then been validated over the whole Consortium area (Chiese and Capitanata) against satellite data of LAI from Landsat 7 and 8, and Sentinel-2.

Optimized irrigation volumes are assessed based on a soil moisture thresholds criterion, allowing to reduce the passages over the field capacity threshold reducing the percolation flux with a saving of irrigation volume without affecting evapotranspiration and so that the crop production. The implemented strategy has shown a significative irrigation water saving, also in this area where a traditional careful use of water is assessed.

The activity is part of the European project RET-SIF (www.retsif.polimi.it).

How to cite: Mancini, M., Corbari, C., Ben Charfi, I., Al Bitar, A., Skokovic, D., Sobrino, J., and Branca, G.: Irrigation management through a coupled energy-water balance and crop growth model driven by remote sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13345, 2021.

In arid and semi-arid regions, agriculture is an important element of the national economy, but this sector is a large consumer of water. In a context of high pressure on water resources (climate change, population growth, desertification, etc.), an appropriate management is required. The development of remote sensing tools: temporal, spatial and spectral resolution offers a better opportunity for hydro-agricultural management. The main objective of this study is to combine climate data with that of optical remote sensing in order to estimate crop water requirements in the irrigated perimeter of Tadla. In semi-arid regions, such as Tadla Plain, a large quantity of water is lost by evapotranspiration (ET). The objective of this study is to use a scientific approach based on the modulation of evaporative demand for the estimation of crop water requirements. This approach is based on the FAO-56 method using image data from the Sentinel-2A and Landsat-8 satellites, and climate data: surface temperature, air humidity, wind speed, global solar radiation and precipitation. It also allowed the spatialization of crop water requirements on a large area of irrigated crops during the 2016–2017 agricultural season. Maps of water requirements have been developed. They show the variability over time of crop development and their estimated water requirements. The results obtained constitute an important indicator of how water should be distributed over the area in order to improve irrigation efficiency and protection of water resources.

How to cite: El Hachimi, J., El Harti, A., and Jellouli, A.: Combination of remote sensing and meteorological data for estimation of crop water requirements in the irrigated perimeter of Tadla in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7906, 2021.

EGU21-8448 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Assessing farmers’ irrigation practices under drought conditions in semi-arid area: Combining remote sensing data and agro-hydrological modeling

Adnane Labbaci, Youssef Brouziyne, Jamal Hallam, and Lahoussaine Bouchaou

Drought is a serious natural hazard with far-reaching impacts including modification of biodiversity and other ecosystem functions, economic disruption, and a threat to human livelihoods and health through food systems alteration. Climate models project robust increases in drought and dryness in the Mediterranean region because of changing climate conditions.  Despite the scarcity of water, irrigated agriculture plays a major socio-economic role in groundwater-dependent irrigated regions of Morocco. Strategic sectors such as citrus rely on irrigation to maintain or even increase production and citrus stakeholders put sustainable irrigation management at the top priorities. This study aims to assess seasonal drought severity in the Souss plain, the largest citrus’ growing area in Morocco, using VCI (Vegetation Condition Index), TCI (Temperature Condition Index), and VHI (Vegetation Health Index) based on Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 data. We explored the benefits of using the Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP) agro-hydrological model to optimize irrigation water management of a citrus orchard. The SWAP model was applied over three growing seasons from 2016 to 2019 to optimize seasonal water supply based on different criteria (e.g., critical soil pressure head and allowable daily stress), particularly during the drought episodes. The VHI was estimated and classified into five classes: extreme, severe, moderate, mild, and no drought. Key outputs of the SWAP model show that the farmers’ irrigation practices did not compensate for the lack of rainfall in the spring, which led to long-term unavailable water during crop development. The SWAP predictive model determined the optimal amount of water and irrigation scheduling systems to make efficient use of while maintaining appropriate yields. The developed algorithm simulation uses the minimal sufficient seasonal amount of water. The designed approach helps prevent critical stress in citrus orchards together with sustainable water distribution in accordance with best agronomic practices.

Keywords: Citrus, drought, water scarcity, sustainable irrigation management, VHI, VCI, TCI, SWAP, Souss plain

How to cite: Labbaci, A., Brouziyne, Y., Hallam, J., and Bouchaou, L.: Assessing farmers’ irrigation practices under drought conditions in semi-arid area: Combining remote sensing data and agro-hydrological modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8448, 2021.

EGU21-12248 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Reconstructing intra-annual cropping dynamics on irrigation schemes in data sparse environments by fusing Landsat and MODIS imagery . 

Tom Higginbottom, Roshan Adhikari, Sarah Redicker, and Tim Foster

Governments and engineers have promoted the construction of large-scale, formalised, irrigation schemes across Africa for nearly 100 years. These developments are designed to increase food production and reduce the vulnerability of agriculture to climate shocks. Yet over the past decades, many irrigation schemes have deteriorated or completely failed; due to a wide range of problems from faulty infrastructure to unexpectedly severe climate shocks. Understanding the drivers of successes and challenges on irrigation schemes is complicated by limited long-term statistics. Meanwhile, for historic Earth-observation based analysis, the Landsat archive remains poor for large areas of Africa, and MODIS imagery is too coarse for meaningull mapping.

Here, we demonstrate a multi-sensor fusion methodology to map the expansion and intensification dynamics of irrigation schemes in the 21st century. Our methodology produces monthly Landsat-like images from the fusion of Landsat 5, Landsat 7 SLC-off, and MODIS imagery, which are classified into cropped area estimates. First, we use the StarFM fusion algorithm to generate monthly Landsat-like images from MODIS composites, based on temporally co-located MODIS and cloud free Landsat 5 or Landsat 7 SLC-on images. Next, we adjust these Landsat-like images against Landsat 7 SLC-off pixels by iteratively reweighting within a spatiotemporal Generalised Additive Model. Finally, we classify the derived monthly, Landsat-like, time-series data using a Random Forest classification model, mapping the number of crops harvested per year for the 2000-2020 period.

We test this methodology against two irrigation schemes in West Africa: the Office du Niger scheme in Mali and the Bagre Irrigation Scheme in Burkina Faso. For both sites, the mapped areas correlate with official statistics on cropped areas. Our data highlight infrastructure improvement and expansion on the Office du Niger, and the resilience of the scheme to rainfall variability. Whilst on the Bagre scheme, we show a vulnerability to large rainfall deficits, and a recent expansion in cropping frequency on newly developed extensions. This methodology is applicable to many areas where the Landsat archive is limited, but intra-annual mapping is required.

How to cite: Higginbottom, T., Adhikari, R., Redicker, S., and Foster, T.: Reconstructing intra-annual cropping dynamics on irrigation schemes in data sparse environments by fusing Landsat and MODIS imagery . , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12248, 2021.

EGU21-13318 | vPICO presentations | HS6.7

Remote Sensing and Citizen science supporting irrigation monitoring in the Capitanata Irrigation Consortium (Italy)

Chiara Corbari, Nicola Paciolla, Imen Ben Charfi, and Mel Woods

In different ways, Citizen Science and Remote Sensing (RS) have been recently developing as innovative and inclusive ways to improve data gathering and the comprehension of many environmental biophysical processes. In this framework, the GROW Observatory has been promoting the individual farmer awareness in agriculture as a counterpart to the ever-developing frequency and accuracy of RS products.

In this analysis, 456 on-ground sensors from the GROW Observatory have been deployed in the Capitanata Irrigation Consortium (Apulia, Italy), with the aim of measuring the components of the water cycle with a dense, high-resolution pattern. The possibility of channelling these data into a high-resolution, plant-oriented Irrigation Water Need (IWN) parameter has been investigated, as a counterpart of coarser-resolution, spatially distributed monitoring powered by remote sensing and hydrological modelling.

The instruments have the possibility of measuring three main variables: Surface Soil Moisture (at a maximum depth of 5 cm), Air temperature and Solar Illuminance (measured a few centimetres above ground). The monitoring period is July-October 2019, contemplating a wide range of different cultivation regimes.

Irrigation water needs estimates has been obtained both in a point-wise (plant-oriented) and field-wise (spatial) format, in order to derive an irrigation water management tool. IWN and Surface Soil Moisture data are also employed in inferring back actual irrigation information from on-ground and RS data. These estimates have then be compared with observed data.

Intermediate measure of Surface Soil Moisture, Air Temperature and radiation (by the Solar Illuminance proxy) have also been compared both with local measurements (those of and eddy-covariance station in place) and RS products from Sentinel and Landsat. Furthermore, Solar Illuminance data have been processed to extract a Leaf Area Index (LAI) product, also comparable with satellite estimates. These comparisons have been conducted through spatial and temporal correlations between the ground-gathered and remotely-sensed data.

The potentiality and also the limitations of these low-cost instruments are presented and discussed.

How to cite: Corbari, C., Paciolla, N., Ben Charfi, I., and Woods, M.: Remote Sensing and Citizen science supporting irrigation monitoring in the Capitanata Irrigation Consortium (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13318, 2021.

During the last decades, there has been a strong increase around the globe in the use of plastic greenhouses (PGs) which respond to the need to provide better water security, overcome adverse weather events, or elude pests. The central valley of Chile has not been an exception and the surface covered by greenhouses has also experienced an increase over the years. In the Valparaiso region, the surface increased from 1122 ha to 1180 ha throughout the decade 1997-2007. However, on one hand, there has not been a new PGs census since 2007 and, on the other hand, its spatial distribution has not ever been mapped. Considering that agriculture in this region employs more than 60000 people and moves 4% of regional GPD, this information should be available to be included in land planning and to be incorporated into hydrological, economic, and food security models. To overcome this, we propose a new method for monitoring the variations of the surface covered by PGs based on the intersection of normalized difference indexes and areas excludes by masks. For this, free Landsat 8 multi-temporal cloud-free images were used, from which five indexes were obtained (Modified Soil-adjusted Vegetation Index, Temperature Brightness Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - Green, Normalized Difference Built-up Index, and Plastic Surface Index). These indexes were then reclassified in binary form and added up. Finally, urban areas and high slope zones were excluded to obtain the final output. This procedure was run in Google Earth Engine, which allowed easy replication and automation for longer time series or in other study sites. Results proved this methodology was able to successfully discriminate the 86% of PG, which suppose 1410 ha. This surface is consistent with the agricultural census developed in 2007 and with the increase of more than 900 subsidies granted by the government for installing PGs. Its performance also supports our confidence to discriminate PGs in areas with different land covers such as reservoirs, rural areas, open crops, bare soil, and roads. Future studies will allow us to estimate the surface of plastic greenhouses in Chile, mapping its spatial distribution in all the country, and monitor changes over time.

How to cite: Aguirre, I. and Lozano-Parra, J.: Mapping plastic greenhouses with satellite imagery in Valparaiso, Chile: development of a new methodology through data cloud platform, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9105, 2021.

In irrigated agricultural areas, where the availability of water for irrigation does not rely on any water storage, water management requires special attention, in particular under large annual and inter-annual variability in the hydrological regime and the uncertainty of climate change. The inherent increased vulnerability of the agro-ecosystem, makes the monitoring of crop conditions and water requirements a valuable tool for improving water use efficiency and, therefore, crop yields.

This presentation focus on one such agricultural area, located in the Lis Valley (Centre of Portugal), which is a rather vulnerable area also facing drainage and salinity problems. The study aims at contributing to better characterizing the temporal and spatial distribution of rice water requirements during the growing season. Irrigation water sources are the Lis River and its tributaries, which discharges depend directly from precipitation. The most important problems of water distribution in the Lis Valley irrigation district are water shortage and poor water quality in the dry summer period, aggravated by limitations of the irrigation and drainage systems that date back to the end of the 1950’s.

We report preliminary results on using remote sensing data to better understand rice cropping local conditions, obtained within project GO Lis (PDR2020-101-030913) and project MEDWATERICE (PRIMA/0006/2018). Rice irrigation is traditionally conducted applying continuous flooding, which requires much more irrigation water than non-ponded crops, and therefore needs special attention. In particular, data obtained from satellite Sentinel-2A land surface imagery are compared with data obtained using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Data for rice cultivated areas during the 2020 cultivation season, together with weather and crop parameters, are used to calculate biophysical indicators and indices of water stress in the vegetation. Actual crop evapotranspiration was appraised with remote sensing based estimates of the crop coefficient (Kc) and used to assess rice water requirements. Procedures and methodologies to estimate Kc were tested, namely those based on vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Results are discussed bearing in mind the usefulness of the diverse tools, based on different resolution data (Sentinel-2A and UAV), for improving the understanding of the impacts of irrigation practices on crop yield and main challenges of rice production and water management in the Lis Valley irrigation district.

How to cite: G. Jorge, R., P. de Lima, I., and L.M.P. de Lima, J.: Estimating rice water requirements in the Lis Valley (Portugal) using remote sensing platforms: preliminary results for the 2020 cultivation season, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13452, 2021.

HS6.8 – Water level, storage and discharge from remote sensing and assimilation in hydrodynamic models

EGU21-12476 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

How to build reach-averaged rating curves for remote sensing discharge estimation? The potential of periodic geometry hypotheses

Mounir Mahdade, Nicolas Le Moine, and Pierre Ribstein

River discharge is an essential component in the hydrological cycle. It is used to monitor rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean through in-situ measurements, acquired on the surface, or from remote sensing to characterize natural disasters such as floods.

Estimating discharge in ungauged rivers with remote sensing data such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission but without any prior in-situ information is difficult to solve, especially in the case of unknown bathymetry, friction, and lateral river flows. However, the current literature suggests that a better knowledge of bathymetry could considerably facilitate roughness and discharge inferring. SWOT observes water surface elevations, slopes, river widths for several overpasses. We propose an inverse method to estimate discharge in a non-uniform steady-state, maintaining longitudinal (alternating pool-riffle) and lateral (meanders) morphological variability of the river. The idea is to build a rating curve (water level - discharge relationship) at the reach scale using hydraulic signatures (quantities not related to a particular section of the reach, which characterize an aspect of the overall hydraulic behavior: e.g., flooded area as a function of Q, mean water level as a function of Q). The inverse approach requires building a model that produces rating curves that optimally correspond to the hydraulic signatures. It requires a direct hydraulic model and a geometric simplification to facilitate the resolution of the inverse problem.

The approach is based on the geomorphology of rivers. Indeed, the geometry of natural rivers presents high-frequency variability, characterized by alternating flow units: fast-flowing flow units in rectilinear and shallow areas (riffles), slow-flowing flow units in deeper areas (pools at alternating banks or inner side of meandering bends). This variability generates a variability of the hydraulic variables that covary at the reach scale. However, a simplification into a uniform geometry without spatial variability reappears as a bias in the frictional parameters, thus reducing the inversion's accuracy. For this, we propose a periodic approach that consists of representing the reach equivalent geometry by sinusoidal functions.

This direct periodic model is used to create a whole periodic geometry (curved based asymmetry sections, Kinoshita curves to model the meander planform) and then solve the Saint-Venant equations in the 2D Basilisk hydraulic model (http://basilisk.fr), which is based on finite volume methods with adaptive grid refinement.

This model does not require boundary conditions (use of periodic boundary conditions) and provides the ability to model floodplains and thus flood mapping. In the end, there are few parameters to adjust in the model (use of parameters covariances).

How to cite: Mahdade, M., Le Moine, N., and Ribstein, P.: How to build reach-averaged rating curves for remote sensing discharge estimation? The potential of periodic geometry hypotheses, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12476, 2021.

EGU21-979 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Remote sensed water discharge to analyze flood frequency

Albert Kettner, Robert Brakenridge, and Sagy Cohen

Historical and current information regarding river discharge is essential, not only from a water management, energy, or global change perspective but also to better analyze, control and forecast flooding. However, globally the number of ground-based gauging stations declines, and data that is measured by ground-based gauging stations is often not, or shared with a considerable delay.

It has been demonstrated that existing satellite sensors can be utilized for useful discharge measurements without requiring ground-based information. The DFO – Flood Observatory uses the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer band at 36.5 GHz (e.g. TRMM, AMSR‐E, AMSR2, GMP), pre-processed by the Joint Research Center (JRC) to estimate discharges. With a nearly-daily repeat interval, this microwave signal has been successfully applied to measure water discharge at a global scale, where the calibration of the microwave discharge signal to discharge units is accomplished by comparison to results from a global hydrological numerical model, the Water Balance Model (WBM), for a calibration period. Once calibrated, daily discharge can be back-calculated to January 1998, providing a daily discharge record for more than 20 years.

Here we present the methods used to utilize remote sensing to measure discharge. We indicate the challenges and how to overcome these when using a multiple sensor approach to capture daily discharges for over a 20-year period. And we show an example for the Amazon river, comparing the remote sensed discharge data with ground observations for multiple locations. Additionally, applications are shown on how this discharge can be combined with flood extent maps to analyze flood frequency.

How to cite: Kettner, A., Brakenridge, R., and Cohen, S.: Remote sensed water discharge to analyze flood frequency, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-979, 2021.

Flooding is one of the most financially devastating natural hazards in the world. Studying storage-discharge relations can have the potential to improve existing flood forecasting systems, which are based on rainfall-runoff models. This presentation will assess the non-linear relation between daily water storage (ΔS) and discharge (Q) simulated by physical-based hydrological models at the Rum River Watershed, a HUC8 watershed in Minnesota, between 1995-2015, by training Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and other machine learning (ML) algorithms. Currently, linear regression models do not adequately represent the relationship between the simulated total ΔS and total Q at the HUC-8 watershed (R2 = 0.3667). Since ML algorithms have been used for predicting the outputs that represent arbitrary non-linear functions between predictors and predictands, they will be used for improving the accuracy of the non-linear relation of the storage-discharge dynamics. This research will mainly use LSTM networks, the time-series deep learning neural network that has already been used for predicting rainfall-runoff relations. The LSTM network will be trained to evaluate the storage-discharge relationship by comparing two sets of non-linear hydrological variables simulated by the semi-distributed Hydrological Simulated Program-Fortran (HSPF): the relationship between the simulated discharges and input hydrological variables at selected HUC-8 watersheds, including air temperatures, cloud covers, dew points, potential evapotranspiration, precipitations, solar radiations, wind speeds, and total water storage, and the dynamics between simulated discharge and input variables that do not include the total water storage. The result of this research will lay the foundation for assessing the accuracy of downscaled storage-discharge dynamics by applying similar methods to evaluate the storage-discharge dynamics at small-scaled, HUC-12 watersheds. Furthermore, its results have the potentials for us to evaluate whether downscaling of storage-discharge dynamics at the HUC-12 watershed can improve the accuracy of predicting discharge by comparing the result from the HUC-8 and the HUC-12 watersheds.

How to cite: Teng, P.-F. and Nieber, J.: Toward Downscaling Storage-Discharge Dynamics: Training Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for Simulating Nonlinear Storage-Discharge Relations at The Rum River Watershed, MN, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3809, 2021.

EGU21-8716 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Testing the potential of Near Infrared band for the estimation of flow duration curves

Angelica Tarpanelli and Alessio Domeneghetti

The flow duration curves (FDCs) represent the relationship between river discharges observed at a given cross-section and the percent of time (duration) they are exceeded, or equaled, over an historical reference period. The FDC provides a comprehensive description of the hydrological regime of a catchment and its knowledge is fundamental for many water-related applications (e.g., water management and supply, human and irrigation purposes, etc.). However, relying on historical streamflow records, FDCs are constrained to gauged stations and, thus, typically available for a small portion of the world’s rivers. In this context, satellite data can support our monitoring capability and being considered as a valuable and additional source for the observation of the Earth’s physical parameters.

Recent studies demonstrated the efficiency of the surface reflectance in the Near Infrared (NIR) for the river discharge estimation. The high temporal resolution (almost daily), the high-medium spatial resolution (10 - 300 m) and the global coverage observing in a continuous way the range of 90-90 latitude encourage to extend the use of the NIR bands also for hydrology-related purposes. Here we tested the potential of MODIS 500 m 8-day product in providing discharge estimation for the construction of FDCs at 13 sites along the Mississippi River. In particular, this work considers records of river discharge from January 2003 to December 2019, calibrating and validating the FDCs for a period of 13 and 4 years, respectively. The aim is to test the ability to estimate the hydrological regime of a river at a given location using satellite data.

Results highlight the potential of the NIR bands to provide a realistic reconstruction of the flow regimes at different locations. Higher errors are obtained at the FDC tails, where extremely high or low flows have a low likelihood of being observed, mainly due to the limit of the sensor to see below the clouds during the flood events or to capture small water body. Better performances are obtained for the medium flows, encouraging the use of the satellite for the water resources management at ungauged river sites.

How to cite: Tarpanelli, A. and Domeneghetti, A.: Testing the potential of Near Infrared band for the estimation of flow duration curves, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8716, 2021.

EGU21-12034 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Data assimilation of SMAP soil moisture into the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to improve discharge estimates via A Novel Local Particle Filter

Zhenwu Wang, Rolf Hut, Natthachet Tangdamrongsub, and Nick van de Giesen

Assimilating surface soil moisture data or GRACE data, retrieved from satellite, into hydrological models has been proven to improve the accuracy of hydrological model estimations and predictions. For data assimilation applications in hydrology, the ensemble Kalm filter(EnKF) is the most commonly used data assimilation(DA) method. Particle filters are a type of non-Gaussian filter that doesn’t need the normality assumption that the EnKF needs. Adding localization defeats the curse of dimensionality that is a problem in normal particle filters. In the present study, we investigated our adaption of the local particle filter based on the Gamma test theory(LPF-GT) to improve discharge estimates by assimilating SMAP satellite soil moisture into the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. The study area is the Rhine river basin, driven by forcing data from April 2015 to December 2016. The improved discharge estimates are obtained by using DA to adjust the surface soil moisture in the model. The influence of DA to discharge is not direct but works through the dynamics of the hydrological model.  To explore the potential of LPF-GT, serval sensitivity experiments were conducted to figure out the impact of localization scales and the number of particles on DA's performance. The DA estimates were validated against in situ discharge measurements from gauge stations. To demonstrate the benefit of LPF-GT, EnKF was used as a benchmark in this research. Increases in Nash-Sutcliffe (0.05%– 38%) and decreases in normalized RMSE (0.02%–3.4%) validated the capability of LPF-GT. Results showed that localization scales' impact was substantial. The optimal value of the localization scale was obtained by tuning. LPF-GT achieved a satisfactory performance when only using a few particles, even with as little as five particles. The sample errors posed an adverse impact on the open-loop results. Further improvement could be achieved by considering reduce sample errors due to a small number of particles.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Hut, R., Tangdamrongsub, N., and van de Giesen, N.: Data assimilation of SMAP soil moisture into the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to improve discharge estimates via A Novel Local Particle Filter, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12034, 2021.

EGU21-13378 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Evaluation of ICESat-2 ATL03 and ATL13 River Levels in Mountainous Areas of China

Heidi Ranndal, Karina Nielsen, and Ole B. Andersen

The data from NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission offer a unique opportunity to map rivers and lakes with an unprecedented number of observations in areas where previous missions have failed to provide valuable water level estimates. ICESat-2 carries just one instrument, the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), which is a green wavelength, photon-counting lidar, and several data products are available, such as the ATL03 product, which holds the photon data, and the ATL13 product which contains estimated inland water surface heights and statistics for water bodies across the world. The along-track resolution of the ATL03 product is less than 1 m, and with the three pairs of beams, i.e. six beams in total, the mission provides exceptional opportunities for inland water studies in areas with mountainous topography.

In general, inland water altimetry in mountainous areas has proven to be a challenge for both conventional Low Resolution Mode (LRM) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) altimetry, causing issues not only with waveforms, but also the position of the range window. In this study, we present the ability of ICESat-2 to obtain water levels in several mountainous rivers in China, where even SAR missions such as CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 have been unsuccessful. Results are shown for both the ATL03 and the ATL13 version 4 products to evaluate their performances.

How to cite: Ranndal, H., Nielsen, K., and Andersen, O. B.: Evaluation of ICESat-2 ATL03 and ATL13 River Levels in Mountainous Areas of China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13378, 2021.

EGU21-13857 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Discharge of the river Rhine from multi-sensor data from empirical and physical methods

Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Elena Zahkavova, Matthias Gärtner, Bahtiyor Zohidov, Salvatore Dinardo, and Quang Duong

River discharge is a key variable to quantify the water cycle and its flux.  This study focuses on the river Rhine, of width between 200 and 500 meters. River discharge is evaluated in this paper from the Sentinel-3 altimeter water level using various approches, which are the empirical rating curve method, the semi-empirical Bjerklie method and the physically-based method based on hydraulic equations.

The Sentinel-3 GPOD ESA products from the SAMOSA+ retracker perform better than the standard Copernicus products that use the OCOG and ocean retrackers. Root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) between altimetry and in-situ stations are between 0.10 m and 0.30 m at 10 of the 17 virtual tide gauge locations. The empirical rating curve method applied to the altimetric water level and in-situ discharge provides estimates of the water discharge with accuracy of 3-7% (expressed as RMSE normalized with the mean of the discharge).

The performance of the semi-empirical Bjerklie method and of the physically-based Manning algorithm to estimate the river discharge is assessed from water surface slope, elevation and top width data for different part of the river and flow conditions. Firstly, daily synthetic water surface slopes and elevations are generated from selected in-situ gauges and mean top river widths. Secondly the input to the discharge algorithm comes from the 1D-hydrodynamic model Sobek. Various choises for reach lengths and for number of observed time-series are considered. Different time sampling are used to study the effect of the repeat cycle of nadir altimeter and SWOT missions. The effect of the priori information on the accuracy of the flow water discharge is investigated.

How to cite: Fenoglio-Marc, L., Zahkavova, E., Gärtner, M., Zohidov, B., Dinardo, S., and Duong, Q.: Discharge of the river Rhine from multi-sensor data from empirical and physical methods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13857, 2021.

EGU21-14175 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Global runoff estimation through a regionalized STREAM model 

Stefania Camici, Gabriele Giuliani, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste

STREAM -SaTellite based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping- is a conceptual hydrological model able to derive daily river discharge and runoff estimates from satellite soil moisture, precipitation and terrestrial water storage anomalies observations. The model is very simple and versatile: It requires a limited number of parameters (only eight) to simulate river discharge.

The model simulates river discharge and gridded runoff at daily time scale with a 25 km spatial resolution. Forced by TRMM 3B42 rainfall data and ESA CCI soil moisture data and GRACE over five pilot large basins (Mississippi, Amazon, Niger, Danube and Murray Darling) the model already provided good runoff estimates especially over Amazon basin, with a Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) index greater than 0.92 both at the basin outlet and over several inner stations in the basin. Good results have been also obtained for Mississippi, Niger and Danube with KGE index greater than 0.75 for all the gauging stations.

By considering the good performances of the STREAM model and by the continuous availability (in space and time) of satellite observations, this work presents an attempt to regionalize the STREAM model parameters. The Mississippi river basin has been taken as case study and specific relationships between model parameters and different predictors (climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, soil vegetation and topography characteristics) have been developed. By using these relationships, STREAM parameter values have been directly obtained from readily available climatic and physiographic basin characteristics and model performances are still satisfactory (median KGE over the basin equal to 0.60). The capability to use these relationships in other hydrologically similar catchments will be investigated for the Danube and Amazon river basins. The final target is to obtain global relationships as to provide to provide daily, 25 km, global runoff maps from the STREAM approach.

How to cite: Camici, S., Giuliani, G., Brocca, L., Massari, C., Tarpanelli, A., Restano, M., and Benveniste, J.: Global runoff estimation through a regionalized STREAM model , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14175, 2021.

EGU21-2785 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Precise carrier phase altimetry over lakes using dual-frequency reflected signals of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)

Estel Cardellach, Weiqiang Li, Dallas Masters, Takayuki Yuasa, Franck Borde, John Shirlaw, and Manuel Martin-Neira

Recently, different studies have shown evidence of signals transmitted by the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), coherently reflected over some parts of the ocean, and received from cubesats. In particular, strong coherent scattering has been reported in regions with low water surface roughness as those near continental masses and in atolls. Over open ocean, few coherent signals were reported to be found, although the data sets were somewhat limited and certainly not exhaustive. The level of coherence in reflected GNSS signals depends on the roughness of the  surface (i.e. significant wave height and small scale ripples and waves induced by the wind), the viewing geometry (i.e. incidence angle, or equivalently, elevation angle of the GNSS satellite as seen from the point of reflection), propagation effects (namely ionospheric disturbances) and on the frequency (i.e. particular GNSS band, like L1/E1, L2 or L5/E5). These coherent measurements over ocean follow earlier evidence of coherent GNSS reflections over sea ice which date back to 2005, the time of UK-DMC mission. More recently, Sea Ice Thickness (SIT) retrievals have also been carried out with this technique, at an accuracy comparable to that of SMOS.

All the observations referred so far were done at a single frequency, L1/E1. So, there is an interest to explore the coherence at the other main GNSS bands, i.e. L2 and L5/E5 as well as to the widelane combinations between them (linear combinations of carrier-phase measurements, of longer effective wavelength). Spire Global radio occultation cubesats work at L1 and L2 frequency bands, and therefore provide unique dual-frequency raw data sets of reflected signals over open ocean, sea ice and inland water bodies. With these, it is possible to study the coherence of these targets at each of the bands and at their widelane combination, as well as the performance of altimetric retrievals at grazing angles of observation (very slant geometries, which facilitate coherence properties of the scattering). The dual-frequency observations can correct the ionospheric effects, and their widelane combinations, of longer effective wavelength, might expand the conditions for coherence. The fact that this new approach is fully compatible with small GNSS radio occultation payloads and missions, might represent a low cost source of precise altimetry to complement larger dedicated missions.

An ESA research study involving Spire Global and IEEC aims at studying this new potential altimetric technique. Raw data acquisitions from limb-looking antennas of Spire’s cubesat constellation were selected to be geographically and time collocated with ESA Sentinel 3A and 3B passes in order to compare the results of coherence and altimetry. For this study, the raw data at two frequencies, acquired at 6.2 Mbps, are shifted to intermediate frequencies and downloaded to the ground without any further processing. In-house software receivers are then applied to generate the reflected echoes or waveforms, and to track the phase of the carrier signals. Precise altimetry (a few cm in 20 ms integration) is then possible from these observables. The results of this activity will be shown, focusing on altimetric retrievals over large lakes.

How to cite: Cardellach, E., Li, W., Masters, D., Yuasa, T., Borde, F., Shirlaw, J., and Martin-Neira, M.: Precise carrier phase altimetry over lakes using dual-frequency reflected signals of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2785, 2021.

EGU21-2890 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Water level changes in Swedish lake systems using pixel-specific Sentinel-1 phase change

Saeid Aminjafari and Fernando Jaramillo

Sweden has approximately 100,000 lakes covering roughly nine percent of the country’s surface area. These lakes are one of the important sources of fresh water for urban, industrial, and agricultural use, further providing a wide range of ecosystem services. In order to conserve and protect the lakes from the impacts of climate change, hydrologic monitoring should ideally be conducted in all of these lakes. However, it is almost impossible to gauge all of these lakes on a regular basis, due to economical and logistic constraints. Radar altimetry has been successfully used to obtain water levels from specific lakes; however, the technology can only be used in large lakes that are located precisely under the orbit of the satellite, thus excluding most Swedish lakes. We here develop a new procedure based on the application of differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) on sequential image pairs with short temporal baseline to measure the water level of 36 lakes. We processed Sentinel-1 twin satellite data with 6-day revisiting intervals, pair by pair, from March 2019 to November 2019. In total, we constructed 41 interferograms considering only the pixels with coherence values greater than 0.2 in all interferograms to ensure consistent scattering and good coherence in all images. We found that the pixels located near tree trunks in flat areas or near steep cliffs in mountainous areas showed a steady phase change in all interferograms that could be converted to water level change. In some of these lakes, the water level changes derived from this methodology correlated well with the in-situ water level of the gauge stations provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. We believe that this methodology has good potential for monitoring water level data in small lakes that cannot be monitored by radar altimetry, and serves as evidence of the unknown potential of DInSAR to track hydrological changes in open water surfaces.

How to cite: Aminjafari, S. and Jaramillo, F.: Water level changes in Swedish lake systems using pixel-specific Sentinel-1 phase change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2890, 2021.

EGU21-6850 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Spatiotemporal change of water level in ungauged high-altitude tropical lakes: a DInSAR approach

Sebastián Palomino-Ángel, Raúl F. Vázquez, Henrietta Hampel, Jesús A. Anaya-Acevedo, Pablo V. Mosquera, and Fernando Jaramillo

Spatiotemporal characteristics of physical responses of lakes to external and environmental changes are still largely unknown due to the consistent lack of monitoring of water level and corresponding changes in water storage in lakes. Understanding these changes is a fundamental step in advancing regional management of natural and anthropogenic systems that depend on the water resources of lakes. As an illustrative example, we here report a case study involving lakes of the headwater topical Andes mountain range, which, despite guaranteeing water security to millions of downstream inhabitants, still remain significantly ungauged. We present a novel evaluation of the potential of Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar DInSAR techniques for the spatiotemporal analysis of patterns of water level change in lakes such as the ones comprising these ungauged high-altitude lake systems. Time series of Sentinel-1B data for the years 2017 and 2018 were used to generate continuous interferograms representing water level changes in twenty-four lakes of the Cajas National Park, Ecuador. The relation of these water level changes with climatic and topographical factors were analyzed to validate the methodology, and determine any patterns of change and response to climatic drivers. We found relatively high Pearson correlation coefficients between regional precipitation and water level change as estimated from the interferograms. Furthermore, we found an important negative relationship between water level change, as obtained from the DInSAR phase, and lake surface area. The study revealed a spatial trend of this correlation in terms of the altitude of the lakes at the basin scale; that is, lower correlation values were found in the headers of the basins, whilst higher correlation values were found at lower basin altitudes. The results of the present study demonstrate the potential of DInSAR techniques based on Sentinel-1 data for the monitoring of hydrologic changes in open water surfaces, and the possible validation of the DInSAR results with precipitation when gauged water level data is missing. These results are a basis to propose monitoring strategies in ungauged high-altitude lake systems in regions with similar data gauging constraints. Future work will encompass the integration of ongoing water level gauging for further validation of the herein depicted lake water level estimation approach.

How to cite: Palomino-Ángel, S., Vázquez, R. F., Hampel, H., Anaya-Acevedo, J. A., Mosquera, P. V., and Jaramillo, F.: Spatiotemporal change of water level in ungauged high-altitude tropical lakes: a DInSAR approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6850, 2021.

EGU21-8615 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Using space observations to monitor reservoir operations in the Lancang River

Dung Trung Vu, Thanh Duc Dang, and Stefano Galelli

Being a part of the Water Tower of Asia, the Mekong River originates from the Tibetan Plateau and flows through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Its upper portion, also called the Lancang River, has abundant hydropower potential, which has been largely exploited during the three recent decades. To date, there are 11 operational dams (10 of them have a volume larger than 100 MCM) on the mainstream of the Lancang, controlling about 40% of the annual flow at Chiang Saen (the most upstream station of the Lower Mekong). The amount of water withheld in these dams is a potential source of controversy between China and downstream countries because it affects both the timing and volume of available water. Assessing the real impacts of these dams is a challenging task owing to the chronic lack of data on reservoirs' storage and operating patterns. To overcome this challenge, we exploit satellite images and altimetry data. The analysis focuses on 10 reservoirs and is conducted in three steps. First, we estimate the relationship between water elevation and surface area (E-A curve) for each reservoir. For this purpose, we either use DEM data or water surface area data (derived from satellite images) paired with altimetry-derived water levels. Second, with the Elevation-Area-Storage curve converted from each E-A curve, we calculate storage variability over time by using satellite image-derived reservoir water surface area. The result is collated with storage variability derived from altimetry data. In the last part of our analysis, focusing on the period 2008-2020, we show how the total withheld storage changed over time, we determine the rule curve of each reservoir and elucidate the role of reservoir filling strategies.

How to cite: Trung Vu, D., Duc Dang, T., and Galelli, S.: Using space observations to monitor reservoir operations in the Lancang River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8615, 2021.

EGU21-12738 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Lake Chad hydrological cycle under current climate change

Florence Sylvestre, Jean-François Crétaux, Muriel Berge-Nguyen, Binh Pham Duc, Abdallah Mahamat Nour, Camille Bouchez, Frédéric Frappart, and Fabrice Papa

In a near future, the Sahara and Sahelian regions could experience more rainfall than today as a result of climate change. Wetter conditions in the hottest and driest place of the planet today raise the question of whether the near future might hold in store environmental transformations, particularly in view of the growing human-induced climate, land-use and land-cover changes. Reflecting an enhancement of the global hydrological cycle under warmer conditions, some experiments provide support for the notion of a strengthening of the monsoon in the future and more rainfall in central Sahel and Sahara. However, some remote forcing could counterbalance the decadal trend. Modeling experiments suggest that the freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting could significantly impact the sea surface temperature of North Atlantic and induce a decrease in Sahel rainfall for the next decades, remaining left open the question how Sahara will be in a warmer climate?

By chance, Lake Chad, located at the southern edge of the Sahara, is recognized for being the best site in Africa for deciphering hydrological and climate change. After being ranked at the world’s sixth largest inland water body with an open water area of 25,000 km2 in the 1960s, it shrunk dramatically at the beginning of the 1970s and reached less than 2000 km2 during the 1980s, decreasing by more 90% in area. Because it provides food and water to 50 millions of people, it becomes crucial to observe precisely its hydrological cycle during the last 20 years.

Here by using a new multi-satellite approach combined with ground-based observations, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, slightly increasing at 14,000 km2. We extend further this reconstruction by adding new data from the hydrological year 2019-2020, which is considered at an extreme in precipitation recorded over the Sahel. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater which contributes to 70% of Lake Chad’s annual water storage, is increasing due to water supply provide by its two main tributaries draining a catchment area 610,000 km2 wide. Because the current climate change seems to be characterize by a higher interannual variability affecting from year to year the amount of precipitation during the rainy season and increasing the vulnerability of the economy of the region mainly based of agropastoral activities, we investigate the yearly cycle and see how it is impacted the hydrological cycle of Lake Chad and changed over time.

How to cite: Sylvestre, F., Crétaux, J.-F., Berge-Nguyen, M., Pham Duc, B., Mahamat Nour, A., Bouchez, C., Frappart, F., and Papa, F.: Lake Chad hydrological cycle under current climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12738, 2021.

EGU21-505 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Sentinel-2 water indexes application for the underground water level analyses in Ovidiopol area of Odessa region (Ukraine).

Sergii Kadurin, Elena Chuiko, and Kseniya Andreeva

Problems statement and purpose. Studied area has a high level of agricultural development. There are different irrigation and drainage systems located there. Significant part of the supplied water losses from the irrigation network because of filtration and reaches the groundwater level, which begins to rise. Raising of groundwater level can lead to waterlogging of the soil, secondary salinization and, as a consequence, to a decrease in crop yields. As result, the groundwater level is under intense technogenic impact. Control and analyses of groundwater level changes with remote sensing methods for Ovidiopol area is the main goal of that work. The object of study is the groundwater level regime in the territory of Lower Dniester irrigation system in Ovidiopol district, Odessa region. The subject of research is water indexes application for analyses of groundwater level changes.

Data and methods. The local system of groundwater observation includes 7 drillholes in Nadlimanskoe village and around. These drillholes located in different geomorphological, hydrogeological and technogenic conditions. The groundwater level was surveyed monthly in 2017.  Sentinel-2 2A images for each month from March 2017 to December 2017 were used for studied area. All satellite images has atmospheric correction. Three water indexes NDWI, MNDWI, NDPI were calculated for drillhole points for each month in 2017 year.

Results. Significant coefficients of correlation were obtained in comparison between groundwater level changes and water indexes in some drillholes points. The highest numbers of correlation connected with free of construction areas and for drillholes, which are located outside of villages. Water indexes have the same intra-annual dynamics of changing as groundwater level. NDWI is the most informative and representative index for studied area. Other types of indexes should be used for build-up areas analyses. However, existed water indexes can be used for groundwater level analyses in the open fields and in river slopes and valleys with developed irrigation system.

How to cite: Kadurin, S., Chuiko, E., and Andreeva, K.: Sentinel-2 water indexes application for the underground water level analyses in Ovidiopol area of Odessa region (Ukraine)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-505, 2021.

In the recent years, southern Sweden has experienced drought conditions during the summer with potential risks of groundwater shortages. One of the main physical effects of groundwater depletion is land subsidence, a geohazard that potentially damages urban infrastructure, natural resources and can generate casualties. We here investigate land subsidence induced by groundwater depletion and/or seasonal variations in Gotland, an agricultural island in the Baltic Sea experiencing recent hydrological droughts in the summer. Taking advantage of the multiple monitoring groundwater wells active on the island, we explore the existence of a relationship between groundwater fluctuations and ground deformation, as obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The aim in the long-term is to develop a high-accuracy map of land subsidence with an appropriate temporal and spatial resolution to understand groundwater changes in the area are recognize hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of change.

We processed Sentinel-1 (S1) data, covering the time span of 2016-2019, by using the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) to process 119 S1-A/B data (descending mode). The groundwater level of Nineteen wells distributed over the Gotland island were used to assess the relationship between groundwater depletion and the detected InSAR displacement. In addition to that, the roles of other geological key factors such as soil depth, ground capacity in bed rock, karstification, structure of bedrock and soil type in occurring land subsidence also investigated. The findings showed that the groundwater level in thirteen wells with soil depths of less than 5 meters correlated well with InSAR displacements. The closeness of bedrock to ground surface (small soil depth) was responsible for high coherence values near the wells, and enabled the detection land subsidence. The results demonstrated that InSAR could use as an effective monitoring system for groundwater management and can assist in predicting or estimating low groundwater levels during summer conditions.

How to cite: Darvishi, M. and Jaramillo, F.: Detecting land deformation due to groundwater changes with InSAR observations - the case of the island of Gotland, Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3402, 2021.

EGU21-6768 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

A multi-sensor monitoring system of surface water level changes in wetlands

Shimon Wdowinski, Heming Liao, and Boya (Paul) Zhang

Wetlands store roughly 10% of global surface water in the terrestrial portion of the water cycle, cover roughly 9% of the Earth’s surface, and provide critical habitat for a wide variety of plant and animal species. Over the past century, many wetland areas have been lost, degraded, or stressed mainly due to anthropogenic activities, as water diversion, agricultural development, and urbanization, but also in response to natural processes, as sea level rise and climate change. Global and regional monitoring of wetland health and response to their natural and anthropogenic stressors are important and are best conducted using space-based remote sensing techniques, due to wetlands’ vast extent and often inaccessibility.

Several space-based remote sensing technologies provide high spatial resolution observations of wetland water level and its changes over time. These techniques include Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), optical imagery, radar and laser altimetry, and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT). SAR observations include two independent observables, amplitude and phase; each observable is sensitive to different hydrological parameters. Radar and laser altimetry missions provide cm-level accuracy water level measurements along the satellite track. The SWOT mission, which is scheduled for a February 2022 launch, will use radar interferometer for repeated measurements of cm-level water level measurements over a 50-100 km wide swaths. As part of a NASA supported project, we develop a space-based multi-sensor monitoring system of surface water level changes in wetlands. The multi-sensor system will generate detailed multi-temporal maps of wetland inundation extent, water levels, and water level changes. The development of the multi-sensor monitoring system will be conducted over the south Florida Everglades, which can be considered as a natural laboratory due to its variable land cover and the availability of ground-based hydrological observations. Preliminary results based on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations yielded detailed maps of water level changes of the entire Everglades wetlands with 100 m spatial resolution and 3-4 cm accuracy level. After development, the system will be tested in two other wetland areas located in Louisiana, and Peace–Athabasca Delta (Alberta, Canada).

How to cite: Wdowinski, S., Liao, H., and Zhang, B. (.: A multi-sensor monitoring system of surface water level changes in wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6768, 2021.

High spatial resolution maps of relative water level changes in wetlands environment have been successfully generated using spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques. However, the wetland InSAR application has limited hydrological monitoring application, because it estimates water level changes not absolute water levels, which are used by hydrologists. TanDEM-X bistatic observations provide simultaneous phase measurements of water surfaces with a two-satellite constellation without temporal decorrelation. In this study, the TanDEM-X bistatic science phase observations with very large baseline (> 1.3 km) geometric configuration were evaluated to extract absolute water levels of the Everglades wetland in south Florida, U.S.A. Thanks to the large perpendicular baseline, spatial variation of water level surfaces with extremely low slope were estimated. We processed two datasets of TanDEM-X bistatic observations acquired on August 26 and 31, 2015. The perpendicular baselines are 1.43 km and 1.36 km and the ambiguity heights were calculated as 3.61 m and 3.90 m in each interferometric pair. The estimated absolute water level maps with 3.6 m and 7.4 m pixel spacing in range and azimuth directions (multilook factor of 4), respectively, show vast detailed variation of the water surfaces for each acquisition date. Hourly water level measurements obtained by stage stations, which are provided by the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), were used for verifying the estimated absolute water levels. Some of stage stations, which are located in low interferometric coherence areas, such as dense vegetated and tree areas, were considered as outliers and were excluded from the comparison. The verification results show very good agreements (code of determination > 0.95) between the TanDEM-X derived absolute water levels and the stage station measurements. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the TanDEM-X results and stage records for the two datasets were 0.77 m and 0.66  m. Although, TanDEM-X bistatic observations have no temporal baseline, there are severe volume decorrelations over various tree types due to the very large perpendicular baseline. The TanDEM-L mission with longer wavelength of radar signal will enable us to generate more coherent interferometric phase observations over wetlands and, consequently, generate improved absolute water level maps.

How to cite: Hong, S.-H., Wdowinski, S., and Kim, S.-W.: Extraction of Absolute Water Level in the Florida Everglades Using TanDEM-X Bistatic Science Phase Observations with a Large Perpendicular Baseline, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3732, 2021.

EGU21-8021 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Spatiotemporal Variations in West Texas Playa Wetlands Mapped from Sentinel-2

Hannah Tripp and Erik Crosman

The improved spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery compared to widely used Landsat imagery allows for many small, variable bodies of water such as intermittent rivers, glacial lakes, rice paddies, and ephemeral wetlands to be studied in depth for the first time.  Across the Texas High Plains, USA, playa lakes are highly sensitive to wet/dry cycles, and are noted for their critical ecological importance in the region, providing habitat for many species of birds and other animals. The playas are also known to be important features for aquifer recharge in some areas. While sporadic aircraft studies and satellite evaluations of the larger playas in the region have been conducted previously from Landsat, no known study has utilized the improved capabilities of Sentinel-2 imagery to document the numerous smaller playas in the region. In this study, we analyze playa lakes across northwestern Texas, USA between 2016-2020  using high-resolution spectral satellite imagery from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission. The Semi-Automatic Classification plugin for QGIS is used to document spatial and temporal changes in the areal extent of water in seasonal playa lakes in the High Plains region of Texas. Several case studies of the spatial and temporal evolution of the playa lakes from Sentinel-2 imagery will be presented, as well as applications for seasonal ecological monitoring and groundwater recharge monitoring.   Images taken of the same playa lakes at different times are compared to determine the rate at which the amount of water is changing. Using data from the nearest available weather stations, the amount of water loss due to evaporation is estimated. This is compared to the observed water loss to estimate the amount of water percolating into the ground where it may be contributing to aquifer recharge. This study aims to be a proof of concept for a method for operationally monitoring the state of playa lakes across the region for ecological applications, as well as to quantify potential groundwater recharge.

How to cite: Tripp, H. and Crosman, E.: Spatiotemporal Variations in West Texas Playa Wetlands Mapped from Sentinel-2, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8021, 2021.

EGU21-8737 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Remote Sensing of Surface Water Dynamics Between 2015 and 2020 in the Prairie Pothole Region 

Stefan Schlaffer, Marco Chini, and Wouter Dorigo

The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) consists of millions of wetlands and holds great importance for biodiversity, water storage and flood management. The wetlands cover a wide range of sizes from a few square metres to several square kilometres. Prairie hydrology is greatly influenced by the threshold behaviour of potholes leading to spilling as well as merging of adjacent wetlands. The knowledge of seasonal and inter-annual surface water dynamics in the PPR is critical for understanding this behaviour of connected and isolated wetlands. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors, e.g. used by the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission, have great potential to provide high-accuracy wetland extent maps even when cloud cover is present. We derived water extent during the ice-free months May to October from 2015 to 2020 by fusing dual-polarised Sentinel-1 backscatter data with topographical information. The approach was applied to a prairie catchment in North Dakota. Total water area, number of water bodies and median area per water body were computed from the time series of water extent maps. Surface water dynamics showed strong seasonal dynamics especially in the case of small water bodies (< 1 ha) with a decrease in water area and number of small water bodies from spring throughout summer when evaporation rates in the PPR are typically high. Larger water bodies showed a more stable behaviour during most years. Inter-annual dynamics were strongly related to drought indices based on climate data, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index. During the extremely wet period of late 2019 to 2020, the dynamics of both small and large water bodies changed markedly. While a larger number of small water bodies was encountered, which remained stable throughout the wet period, also the area of larger water bodies increased, partly due to merging of smaller adjacent water bodies. The results demonstrate the potential of Sentinel-1 data for long-term monitoring of prairie wetlands while limitations exist due to the rather low temporal resolution of 12 days over the PPR.

How to cite: Schlaffer, S., Chini, M., and Dorigo, W.: Remote Sensing of Surface Water Dynamics Between 2015 and 2020 in the Prairie Pothole Region , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8737, 2021.

EGU21-14620 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

Determining hydrological barriers in wetlands with InSAR methods: several iconic cases worldwide

Fernando Jaramillo, Dan Liu, Saeid Aminjafari, and Xuan Wang

Hydrological connectivity is a critical determinant of wetland functions and ecosystems by controlling the movement of biogeochemical elements within wetlands and the flow of water between their hydrological units. Hydrological barriers exist when this connectivity is impaired, either by man-made infrastructure, agriculture developments, or naturally restricted by soil and ground composition. Determining hydrological barriers in wetlands is challenging due to the costs of high-resolution and large-scale monitoring, but radar observations can become a useful tool for such task. We here use an Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to identify hydrological barriers in several iconic wetlands worldwide, with particular focus on the Baiyangdian wetland system in Northern China. For the first, we use Sentinel 1A and 1B data covering the period 2016-2019, while for the rest we rely on ALOS PALSAR data. We calculated profiles of water level change across hydrological transects showing high coherence and visualized them in maps. For instance, in the case of the Baiyangdian wetland, we find that of the 70 transects studied, 11% of all transects are permanently disconnected by hydrological barriers across all interferograms and 58% of the transects are conditionally disconnected. The occurrence of hydrological barriers varies between wetlands, with permanent barriers more related to ditches, infrastructure and the specific wetland landscape, and conditional barriers more to low water levels during dry seasons. This study highlights the potential of the application of wetland InSAR to determine hydrological barriers for wetland management and restoration.

How to cite: Jaramillo, F., Liu, D., Aminjafari, S., and Wang, X.: Determining hydrological barriers in wetlands with InSAR methods: several iconic cases worldwide, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14620, 2021.

EGU21-4129 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

New upgrades of Open-Loop Tracking Command (OLTC) tables of nadir altimeters in 2020 and benefits for inland waters users

Simon Boitard, Sophie Le Gac, Denis Blumstein, Eric Munesa, François Boy, Eric Jeansou, Mathilde Cancet, Léo Grignon, Nicolas Picot, and Pierre Féménias

Fresh water is an essential resource that requires a close monitoring and a constant preservation effort. The evolution of hydrological bodies water level constitutes a key indicator on the available quantity of fresh water in a given region. The limited extent of the in situ networks currently deployed has generated a growing interest in using space borne altimetry as a complementary data source to increase the coverage of emerged fresh water stocks and ensure a more global and continuous monitoring of their water surface height.

A great effort has been carried out over the past decade to improve altimeters’ capability to acquire quality measurements over inland waters. In particular, the Open-Loop Tracking Command (OLTC), which consists in calibrating the altimeter signal acquisition window with a prior information on the overflown hydrological surface height, represents a major evolution of the tracking function. This tracking mode’s efficiency is such that it is now stated as operational mode for current Sentinel-3 and Jason-3 missions as well as the recently launched Sentinel-6A mission. The improvements brought to onboard tables contents in 2017 (Jason-3), 2018 (Sentinel-3B) and 2019 (Sentinel-3A) enhanced and confirmed the OLTC performances.

In 2020, the onboard OLTC tables of the Jason-3, Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B missions have benefitted from further new major upgrades. The first version of the Sentinel-6A onboard OLTC tables holds the same content as Jason-3. The tracking command defined over Jason-3 and Sentinel-6A repeat cycle now accounts for more than 30,000 hydrological targets which represents five times more targets than in the previous version. For each Sentinel-3, the number of water body surface heights coded into the OLTC has been increased by a factor of 3 to 70,000. This further major step is made possible by the analysis and merging of the most recent digital elevation models (SRTM, MERIT and ALOS/PalSAR) and water bodies databases (HydroLakes, GRaND v1.3, SWBD, GSW). This methodology ensures coherency and consistent standards between all nadir altimetry missions and types of hydrological targets.

A detailed description of the 2020 upgrades will be given as well as measurements validation results obtained since their upload. An overview of the global validation of Sentinel-6A measurements over hydrological targets will also be presented.

These 2020 OLTC upgrades constitute a great asset for building a valuable and continuous record of the water surface height of worldwide lakes, rivers, reservoirs and wetlands. In addition, for a continuous improvement of the OLTC tracking mode, the users can check the content of the onboard OLTC tables over hydrological targets for both Sentinel-3 missions on the https://www.altimetry-hydro.eu/ web portal. When relevant, they can correct existing water surface heights or submit new targets.

How to cite: Boitard, S., Le Gac, S., Blumstein, D., Munesa, E., Boy, F., Jeansou, E., Cancet, M., Grignon, L., Picot, N., and Féménias, P.: New upgrades of Open-Loop Tracking Command (OLTC) tables of nadir altimeters in 2020 and benefits for inland waters users, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4129, 2021.

EGU21-12480 | vPICO presentations | HS6.8

SAR, SARin, RDSAR and FF-SAR Altimetry Processing on Demand for CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 at ESA G-POD

Jérôme Benveniste, Salvatore Dinardo, Christopher Buchhaupt, Michele Scagliola, Marcello Passaro, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Giovanni Sabatino, Américo Ambrózio, and Marco Restano

The scope of this presentation is to feature and provide an update on the ESA G-POD/SARvatore family of altimetry services portfolio for the exploitation of CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 data from L1A (FBR) data products up to SAR/SARin Level-2 geophysical data products. At present, the following on-line & on-demand services compose the portfolio:

-       The SARvatore (SAR Versatile Altimetric TOolkit for Research & Exploitation) for CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 services developed by the Altimetry Team in the R&D division at ESA-ESRIN. These processor prototypes are versatile and allow the users to customize and adapt the processing at L1b & L2 according to their specific requirements by setting a list of configurable options. The scope is to provide users with specific processing options not available in the operational processing chains (e.g. range walk correction, stack sub-setting, extended receiving window, zero padding, high-posting rate and burst weighting at L1b & SAMOSA+, SAMOSA++ and ALES+ SAR retrackers at L2). AJoin & Share Forum (https://wiki.services.eoportal.org/tiki-custom_home.php) allows users to post questions and report issues. A data repository is also available to the Community to avoid the redundant reprocessing of already processed data (https://wiki.services.eoportal.org/tiki-index.php?page=SARvatore+Data+Repository&highlight=repository).

-       The TUDaBo SAR-RDSAR (Technical University Darmstadt – University Bonn SAR-Reduced SAR) for CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 service. It allows users to generate reduced SAR, unfocused SAR & LRMC data. Several configurable L1b & L2 processing options and retrackers (BMLE3, SINC2, TALES, SINCS) are available. The processor will be extended during an additional activity related to the ESA HYDROCOASTAL Project (https://www.satoc.eu/projects/hydrocoastal/) to account in the open ocean for the vertical motion of the wave particles (VMWP) in unfocused SAR and in a simplified form of the fully focused SAR called here Low Resolution Range Cell Migration Correction-Focused (LRMC-F).  

-       The ALES+ SAR for CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 service. It allows users to process official L1b data and produces L2 NetCDF products by applying the empirical ALES+ SAR subwaveform retracker, including a dedicated SSB solution, developed by the Technische Universität München in the frame of the ESA Sea Level CCI (http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.org/) & BALTIC+ SEAL Projects (http://balticseal.eu/).

-       The Aresys Fully Focused SAR for CryoSat-2 service. Currently under development, it will provide the capability to produce CS-2 FF-SAR L1b products thanks to the Aresys 2D transformed frequency domain AREALT-FF1 processor prototype. Output products will also include geophysical corrections and threshold peak & ALES-like subwaveform retracker estimates.

The G-POD graphical interface allows users to select, in all the services, a geographical area of interest within the time-frame related to the L1A (FBR) & L1b data products availability in the service catalogue.  

After the task submission, users can follow, in real time, the status of the processing. The output data products are generated in standard NetCDF format, therefore being compatible with the multi-mission “Broadview Radar Altimetry Toolbox” (BRAT, http://www.altimetry.info) and typical tools.

Services are open, free of charge (supported by ESA) for worldwide scientific applications and available, after registration and activation (to be requested for each chosen service to eo-gpod@esa.int), at https://gpod.eo.esa.int.

How to cite: Benveniste, J., Dinardo, S., Buchhaupt, C., Scagliola, M., Passaro, M., Fenoglio-Marc, L., Sabatino, G., Ambrózio, A., and Restano, M.: SAR, SARin, RDSAR and FF-SAR Altimetry Processing on Demand for CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 at ESA G-POD, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12480, 2021.

HS6.10 – The Third Pole Environment (TPE) under global changes

EGU21-8365 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Climate change in the High Mountain Asia simulated with CMIP6 models

Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, and Gerhard Krinner

The High Mountains of Asia (HMA) region and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an average altitude of 4000 m, are hosting the third largest reservoir of glaciers and snow after the two polar ice caps, and are at the origin of strong orographic precipitation. Climate studies over HMA are related to serious challenges concerning the exposure of human infrastructures to natural hazards and the water resources for agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectricity to whom several hundred million inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent are depending. However, climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and snow cover are poorly described by global climate models because their coarse resolution is not adapted to the rugged topography of this region. Since the first CMIP exercises, a cold model bias has been identified in this region, however, its attribution is not obvious and may be different from one model to another. Our study focuses on a multi-model comparison of the CMIP6 simulations used to investigate the climate variability in this area to answer the next questions: (1) are the biases in HMA reduced in the new generation of climate models? (2) Do the model biases impact the simulated climate trends? (3) What are the links between the model biases in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover extent? (4) Which climate trajectories can be projected in this area until 2100? An analysis of 27 models over 1979-2014 still show a cold bias in near-surface air temperature over the HMA and TP reaching an annual value of -2.0 °C (± 3.2 °C), associated with an over-extended relative snow cover extent of 53 % (± 62 %), and a relative excess of precipitation of 139 % (± 38 %), knowing that the precipitation biases are uncertain because of the undercatch of solid precipitation in observations. Model biases and trends do not show any clear links, suggesting that biased models should not be excluded in trend and projections analysis, although non-linear effects related to lagged snow cover feedbacks could be expected. On average over 2081-2100 with respect to 1995-2014, for the scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, the 9 available models shows respectively an increase in annual temperature of 1.9 °C (± 0.5 °C), 3.4 °C (± 0.7 °C), 5.2 °C (± 1.2 °C), and 6.6 °C (± 1.5 °C); a relative decrease in the snow cover extent of 10 % (± 4.1 %), 19 % (± 5 %), 29 % (± 8 %), and 35 % (± 9 %); and an increase in total precipitation of 9 % (± 5 %), 13 % (± 7 %), 19 % (± 11 %), and 27 % (± 13 %). Further analyses will be considered to investigate potential links between the biases at the surface and those at higher tropospheric levels as well as with the topography. The models based on high resolution do not perform better than the coarse-gridded ones, suggesting that the race to high resolution should be considered as a second priority after the developments of more realistic physical parameterizations.

How to cite: Lalande, M., Ménégoz, M., and Krinner, G.: Climate change in the High Mountain Asia simulated with CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8365, 2021.

EGU21-6877 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Historical change of winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover and its controlling factors

Shixue Li, Tomonori Sato, and Tetsu Nakamura

This study investigates the controlling factors of the interannual variability of Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) in winter. Since snow observation in Tibetan Plateau is limited in space and time, high-resolution multi-satellite data for TPSC were analyzed during 1982-2016. In addition, a large ensemble AGCM experiment from d4PDF (hereafter, HIST), driven by observed SST and anthropogenic forcings were analyzed during 1951-2010 to compare the contributions arising from internal variability and external forcings including the change in greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on TPSC variation. In this study TPSC fraction (hereafter, TPSCF) is defined as the percentage of the snow-covered area over the Tibetan Plateau. For both observation and HIST, high and low TPSCF years determined by the standardized January-March TPSCF were analyzed. The range of interannual TPSCF variation (i.e., TPSCF difference between high and low TPSCF years) is about 11% in both observation and the model, suggesting the AGCM well reproduced the TPSCF variability in the interannual timescale. 

We found that high TPSCF is linked to a positive-AO-like pattern. The interannual variation of the observed AO index and TPSCF are significantly correlated. In d4PDF high TPSCF more likely appears with a higher (positive) AO index and vice versa. In high TPSCF years, the subtropical jet is strengthened, which significantly enhances zonal water vapor flux reaching the plateau supporting more precipitation. Another interesting result is a disagreement for ENSO’s contribution to TPSC appears between observation and HIST. However, several members in HIST show a feature close to the observation, in which TPSCF anomalies are not sensitive to the El Niño/La Niña events. Thus, this weak linkage between ENSO and TPSCF is more likely due to the limited cases of observations rather than the model bias. Finally, by comparing HIST and non-warming experiments (NAT), we found historical global warming has decreased the snow-to-rain ratio over TP. Nonetheless, increased precipitation compensates for it. As a result, the impact of historical global warming on TPSCF could be considered negligibly weak.

How to cite: Li, S., Sato, T., and Nakamura, T.: Historical change of winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover and its controlling factors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6877, 2021.

EGU21-9150 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Comparison of atmospheric vertical motion of three reanalysis datasets over Tibetan Plateau

Rongxiang Tian and Jiayu Xu

Vertical motion is an important feature of the atmosphere, being closely linked to clouds and precipitation. We present a comparison of the vertical velocity of air over Tibetan Plateau during the period 1981–2010 using three reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP/NCAR. Statistical analysis methods were used to examine consistency between the datasets and their suitability in research and application in Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the vertical velocity fields from ERA-Interim and JRA-55 are more consistent than they are with those from NCEP/NCAR. The atmospheric vertical velocity fields from NCEP/NCAR lack details compared with those obtained from ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Use of ERA-Interim or JRA-55 may be preferable over NCEP/NCAR. The intensity of atmospheric vertical motion in the lower troposphere in JRA-55 is significantly higher than in ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR. In summer, the JRA-55 data are closest to the observed wind fields and the data stability best for the Tibetan Plateau region. Our results provide guidance for better application of reanalysis data and more accurate climate prediction for this region.

How to cite: Tian, R. and Xu, J.: Comparison of atmospheric vertical motion of three reanalysis datasets over Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9150, 2021.

EGU21-2318 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Study on the Land-Atmosphere Interaction in the Coordination Effect of Westerly Wind and Monsoon

Maoshan Li, Lingzhi Wang, Wei Fu, Ming Gong, and Na Chang

 Different underlying surfaces have differing diversities, complex compositions and uneven distributions and contribute to diverse and complex land surfaces. As the main input factor for atmospheric energy, the surface greatly affects the various interactions between the ground and the atmosphere and even plays a key role in local areas on the Tibetan Plateau. The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer structure of the plateau and the land-atmosphere interaction under the control of different wind fields in the south branch of the westerly wind and the plateau monsoon are discussed. Results show that the height of the atmospheric boundary layer at each station under the westerly south branch wind field is higher than that under the summer monsoon wind field. The height of the convective boundary layers of Mount Everest, Nyingchi, Nagqu and Shiquan River in the southwest wind field are 3250 m, 2250 m, 2760 m and 3500 m. while the height of the convective boundary layers of Mount Everest, Nyingchi, Nagqu and Shiquan River under the plateau monsoon field are 2000 m, 2100 m, 1650 m and 2000 m. The specific humidity of the surface layer at all site is larger on July than it on other months. The specific humidity of the surface layer in Linzhi area is larger than that of the other three regions, and it reaches 12.88 g·kg-1 at the maximum. The wind direction on Mount Everest over 1200 m is dominated by westerly winds in May and October. The wind direction on Nyingchi above 1500 m is dominated by westerly winds in May and October, and in July, winds above 1200 m is dominated by southerly winds. The wind direction of Shiquan River in May and October is dominated by west-southwest wind, and the wind direction of Shiquan River in July is dominated by west-northwest wind. Secondly, variation characteristics of surface fluxes were analyzed by using the eddy covariance observations from four stations of Pailong(entrance of Canyon), Danka (middle of Canyon), Kabu (end of Canyon) , and Motuo (end of Canyon) in the southeastern gorge area of Tibet. The changing trend of monthly averaged daily sensible heat flux at Kabu station is fluctuating. Sensible heat flux and latent heat flux at Motuo station have the same variation characteristics. Latent heat fluxes increase first and then decrease at all four stations. Seasonal variations of soil heat flux are obvious, characterizing positive values in spring and summer and negative values in autumn and winter. The diurnal variation intensity of net radiation flux is summer>spring>autumn>winter.   Energy closure rates of Danka, Pailong, Motuo, and Kabu stations are 70.86%, 68.91%, 69.29%, and 67.23%, respectively. Latent heat fluxes and soil heat fluxes increase, and sensible heat fluxes decrease as increasing precipitation at the four stations. The sensible heat flux and soil heat flux respond synchronously to precipitation changes, and the changes in latent heat have a significant lag in response to precipitation changes.

How to cite: Li, M., Wang, L., Fu, W., Gong, M., and Chang, N.: Study on the Land-Atmosphere Interaction in the Coordination Effect of Westerly Wind and Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2318, 2021.

Permafrost in the Tibetan plateau is undergoing warming and degradation due to thermal and anthropogenic disturbance. As visible indicators of permafrost degradation, retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are slope failures resulting from thawing of ice-rich permafrost, which can retreat and expand in thawing seasons, and may destroy infrastructure, change ecosystems and release carbon preserved in permafrost. However, the distribution of RTSs over Tibet is seldom investigated and poorly understood.

In this study, we used optical images collected by the Planet CubeSat constellation in 2019 to identify RTSs over a vast area of ~45000 km2 along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor, where the main highways and railways across the plateau are running through and a new highway is under planning. We planned to use the deep learning model DeepLabv3+, which can classify every pixel in the entire study area. However, with limited training data (300 RTSs) centered in a relatively small subregion (Beiluhe Region), it is infeasible to delineate all RTSs accurately in such a large and diverse area by using deep learning alone. Therefore, we proposed an iteratively semi-automatic method. In each iteration, we used DeepLabv3+ to automatically identify and delineate all possible RTSs, then manually checked them and selected newly-found RTSs based on their geomorphic features and temporal changes. To minimize the chance that DeepLabv3+ may miss some RTSs in each iteration, we added newly-found RTSs into the positive training dataset for the next iteration. We stopped iteratively mapping until no new RTSs could be identified.

Eventually, our method identified and delineated 877 RTSs which affect a total area of 17 km2. They tend to spread out across the region, while Beiluhe is characterized as a cluster. Among these, 57 RTSs are within 500 m from major roads and the railway and potentially threaten their safety. This study demonstrates the applicability of using our deep-learning-aided method to obtain a comprehensive inventory of RTSs in large areas such as the engineering corridor, give us an overall understanding of RTS distribution, and provide an important benchmark dataset and knowledge for further quantifying temporal changes of RTSs.

How to cite: Xia, Z., Huang, L., and Liu, L.: Inventorying Retrogressive Thaw Slumps along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor using a deep-learning-aided semi-automatic method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16426, 2021.

EGU21-5201 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

The Gravel Parameterization Schemes on Tibetan Plateau and Its Assessment Using RegCM4

Yigang Liu, Shihua Lyu, Cuili Ma, Yue Xu, and Jiangxin Luo

In this paper, the impact of gravel is taken into account in regional simulations on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The differences of ground surface and soil hydrological processes in the TP are compared when the gravel parameterization schemes and the original soil hydrothermal parameterization schemes are respectively adopted in the regional climate model version 4.7 (RegCM4.7), which is driven by the EIN15. Moreover, the performances in simulating the liquid soil moisture (LSM) by using the two schemes are also assessed. When the impact of gravel is considered, the changes of ground hydrological processes are consistent with those of liquid precipitation and snow meltwater except the infiltration, indicating the dominance of liquid precipitation and snow meltwater in ground hydrological processes. The lower gravel content will facilitate the downward transportation of LSM. However, in the case of high gravel content, the roles of gravel content are completely opposite in the western and central TP. The most obvious change is that the simulated LSM by the gravel schemes is lower at most soil depths compared with that by the original schemes, which is beneficial in most cases. For instance, the mean absolute errors of the reference data with the simulations by the gravel schemes and original schemes at the soil depth of 0.1 m in the southeastern TP are 0.026 and 0.101, respectively. Besides the southeastern TP, the performance in simulating the temporal variation of the LSM below the middle soil layers still needs to be improved.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Lyu, S., Ma, C., Xu, Y., and Luo, J.: The Gravel Parameterization Schemes on Tibetan Plateau and Its Assessment Using RegCM4, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5201, 2021.

Based on the Köppen–Trewartha climate classification schemes, we examined the shifts in terrestrial climate regimes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by analyzing the WorldClim high-resolution (~25 km) downscaled climate dataset for the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 cal yr BP), the present day (PD, 1970-2000), and in the future (2041-2060, represented by 2050). The climate types of the PD are compared to those of the MH and the future. Our aim was to place ongoing anthropogenic climatic and environmental changes in the TP within the context of changes due to natural forcing in the three selected warm period, and to determine the differences in the spatial expression of ecosystem among these selected periods. The results indicate that the climate of the TP will continue to warm in the future. The intensity of the South Asian monsoon may increase in the future which will affect precipitation in the southern TP. There will be a significant decrease in the areas covered by polar climate, while the spatial coverage of the other climate types will increase. A tropical climate which did not exist in the MH and PD will develop in some areas and the shrinking polar climate indicates that the cryosphere of the TP will change significantly, which in turn may cause the climate system to pass a tipping point and cause irreversible consequences. The large changes in the climate regimes of the TP suggest that there will be a widespread redistribution of the surface vegetation and significant changes in plant species distributions by 2050. Compared to changes in precipitation, increasing temperature is the dominant factor that driving the change of climate types in the TP. The warming alone may cause the climate types to change in more than 20% areas by 2050.

How to cite: Huang, L., Huang, W., Feng, S., Yang, K., and Chen, F.: Changes of Köppen–Trewartha climate types in the Tibetan Plateau during the mid-Holocene, present day, and the future based on high-resolution datasets, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7072, 2021.

EGU21-7076 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Detecting evapotranspiration biases in reanalyses and regional climate modeling

Jingyu Dan and Yanhong Gao

As the highest plateau in the world, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts great impacts on regional and global climate and water cycle through interactions between land and free atmosphere. Terrestrial evapotranspiration is a critical component of the Earth's water cycle. To better understand the heterogeneity of the evapotranspiration over the Tibetan Plateau and its influences, we conducted a whole year dynamical downscale modelling (DDM) with the horizontal resolution at 28km and a convection permitting modelling (CPM) at 4km for 2014. DDM and CPM simulation results are compared with an satellite retrieving dataset, which is referred as OBS in the following, the global land surface data assimilation system (GLDAS) and two commonly used reanalyses ERA-Interim and ERA5, as well. The annual and seasonal means and seasonal variabilities are inter-compared. The evapotranspiration over ten dominant land use types are investigated based on six datasets. Differences with the satellite dataset are illustrated and relationships with soil moisture and temperature, precipitation and radiation are explored. The followings are obtained. GLDAS generally reproduces magnitude and pattern of the OBS; reanalyses overestimate, DDM and CPM underestimate compared to the OBS and GLDAS.

The overestimations in reanalyses occur in the monsoon season and the underestimations in DDM and CPM occur in the non-monsoon season. Large evapotranspiration biases exist over the vegetated ground which exert large impacts on the TP-average biases for growing season.

How to cite: Dan, J. and Gao, Y.: Detecting evapotranspiration biases in reanalyses and regional climate modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7076, 2021.

EGU21-7742 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Inter-decadal Change of Tibetan Plateau Vortices during the past four Decades and its Possible Mechanism

Zhiqiang Lin, Weidong Guo, Xiuping Yao, Jun Du, and Jun Ge

The Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are mesoscale weather systems active at the near-surface of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are one of the major precipitation-producing systems over the TP and its surrounding areas. TPVs mainly occur in the warm season from May to September. In this paper, we investigate the inter-decadal change of TPVs in the warm seasons of 1979–2017 by analyzing five widely used reanalysis datasets. A significant change of the TPVs’ frequency appears around the mid-1990s, associated with less TPVs during 1979–1996 and more TPVs during 1997–2017. The abrupt change is caused by a transition of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the mid-1990s. The shift of AMO leads to a silk-road pattern wave train and a spatially asymmetric change of tropospheric temperature. It modifies the intensity of the subtropical westerly jet and the TP heating, leading to the inter-decadal change of TPV activities.

How to cite: Lin, Z., Guo, W., Yao, X., Du, J., and Ge, J.: Inter-decadal Change of Tibetan Plateau Vortices during the past four Decades and its Possible Mechanism, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7742, 2021.

EGU21-1568 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

The evaluation of land surface parameters for model to derive land surface fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau

Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Lei Zhong, Zhipeng Xie, Zeyong Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Fanglin Sun

Firstly, based on the difference of model and in-situ observations, a serious of sensitive experiments were done by using WRF. In order to use remote sensing products, a land-atmosphere model was initialized by ingesting land surface parameters, such as AMSR-E RS products, and the results were compared with the default model configuration and with in-situ long-term CAMP/Tibet observations.

Secondly, a land-atmosphere model was initialized by ingesting AMSR-E products, and the results were compared with the default model configuration and with in-situ long-term CAMP/Tibet observations. The differences between the AMSR-E initialized model runs with the default model configuration and in situ data showed an apparent inconsistency in the model-simulated land surface heat fluxes. The results showed that the soil moisture was sensitive to the specific model configuration. To evaluate and verify the model stability, a long-term modeling study with AMSR-E soil moisture data ingestion was performed. Based on test simulations, AMSR-E data were assimilated into an atmospheric model for July and August 2007. The results showed that the land surface fluxes agreed well with both the in-situ data and the results of the default model configuration. Therefore, the simulation can be used to retrieve land surface heat fluxes from an atmospheric model over the Tibetan Plateau.

All of the different methods will clarify the land surface heating field in complex plateau, it also can affect atmospheric cycle over the Tibetan Plateau even all of the global atmospheric cycle pattern.

How to cite: Ma, W., Ma, Y., Han, Y., Hu, W., Zhong, L., Xie, Z., Hu, Z., Su, R., and Sun, F.: The evaluation of land surface parameters for model to derive land surface fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1568, 2021.

EGU21-7059 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Surface Radiation Characteristics of the Ali Area, Northern Tibetan Plateau

Ge Wang and Lin Han

This study analyses the diurnal seasonal mean and the seasonal and annual variation in the radiation budget at the Ali Meteorological Bureau observation station in the northern Tibetan Plateau for 2019. The results indicate that the daily average variation in incidental shortwave and reflected radiation across all seasons in the Ali area had typical unimodal symmetry. The average daily variation in incidental shortwave radiation was in phase with reflected radiation, but the amplitude of the incidental shortwave radiation was greater than that of reflected radiation. The daily amplitude, daily average, and monthly average upwelling longwave radiation were greater than those for downwelling radiation, and the diurnal cycle of downwelling atmospheric radiation lagged behind that of upwelling longwave radiation. The daily amplitude of surface net radiation in winter in the Ali area was less than in other seasons, as expected, and the seasonal transformation had a great impact on the net radiation for this region. The net radiative energy at the surface was highest in late spring and early summer, which played a decisive role in the formation of terrestrial and atmospheric heating.

How to cite: Wang, G. and Han, L.: Surface Radiation Characteristics of the Ali Area, Northern Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7059, 2021.

EGU21-1956 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Improved parameterization of albedo in WRF + Noah in snow events simulation in the Tibetan Plateau

Lian Liu, Massimo Menenti, Yaoming Ma, and Weiqiang Ma

Snowfall and the subsequent evolution of the snowpack have a large effect on surface energy balance and water cycle, among which albedo is a major driver. However, the current widely used Noah land surface model does not describe snow albedo correctly, although it keeps snow-related variables i.e. snow cover and age into account. In our study, the impact of an improved albedo parameterization scheme in WRF coupled with Noah was investigated. In the improved albedo scheme, albedo was parameterized as functions of snow depth and age which was developed using remote sensing retrievals of albedo.

Numerical experiments were conducted to model a severe snow event in March 2017. The performance of WRF coupled with Noah applying the improved albedo scheme was compared with that of applying the default albedo scheme and with that of WRF coupled with CLM applying CLM’s complex albedo scheme. First, the improved albedo scheme largely reduces the WRF coupled with Noah default albedo overestimation in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, remarkably reducing the large cold bias estimates by 0.7 ℃ air temperature RMSE. Second, the improved albedo scheme gives the highest correlationship between the satellite-derived and the model estimated albedo, contributing to achieve the SWE spatial pattern, heavy snow belt and maximum SWE estimates in eastern Tibetan Plateau. Third, the fine resolution simulation, such as 5 km (1 km), significantly reduces the eastern SWE overestimation by 29% (49%).

In order to investigate the applicability of the improved albedo scheme in snow events simulation in the Tibetan Plateau, 16 numerical experiments were conducted to simulate 8 snow events by using WRF coupling with Noah default and improved albedo schemes. The assessment demonstrates that the improved albedo scheme significantly reduces the air temperature underestimation, and reduces the air temperature RMSE by 0.5 - 1 ℃ for both 5 km and 1 km resolution simulations. It is expected that the improved albedo parameterization scheme will have a good prospect in high resolution simulation of snow events in the Tibetan Plateau.

How to cite: Liu, L., Menenti, M., Ma, Y., and Ma, W.: Improved parameterization of albedo in WRF + Noah in snow events simulation in the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1956, 2021.

EGU21-14593 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

The different mechanisms of extreme snowfall in the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau.

Nan Yao, Lian Liu, and Yaoming Ma

Snowfall is a key component of the hydrological system of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and it is also a very sensitive factor to climate change. To understand the mechanism of extreme snowfall in different regions of the TP, we used the 50-year snow depth data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) ground observations and the ERA5 reanalysis datasets of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Results show the threshold of extreme snow in the southern TP is four times greater than that in the eastern region. Sixteen numerical experiments using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model were conducted to quantify the contribution of water vapor and dynamic conditions to snowfall events. Here are the preliminary results: (1) For the snowfall event caused by local circulation in the eastern TP, the contribution of dynamic conditions is greater than that of moisture conditions. An increase of 10% in the wind field (water vapor) will enhance the snow water equivalent (SWE) by more than 25% (10%). (2) For large-scale circulation, q has a greater effect. But the overall increase in snowfall is smaller than the local circulation. (3) The severe snowfall frequently takes place in the southern TP, where water vapor channel and topographic uplift are significant factors to snowfall. we think the southern simulation will produce interesting results. Our results will provide scientific reference in improving the snowstorm forecasting and disaster prevention and mitigation.

How to cite: Yao, N., Liu, L., and Ma, Y.: The different mechanisms of extreme snowfall in the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14593, 2021.

EGU21-1660 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Runoff generation processes in permafrost-influenced area of the Heihe River Headwater

Fan Zhang, Xiong Xiao, and Guanxing Wang

Permafrost degradation under global warming may change the hydrological regime of the headwater catchments in alpine area such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, he runoff generation processes in permafrost-influenced area of the Heihe River Headwater were investigated with the following results: 1) The observed stable isotope values of various water types on average was roughly in the order of snowfall and snowmelt < bulk soil water (BSW) < rainfall , stream water, mobile soil water (MSW) , and lateral subsurface flow. The depleted spring snowmelt and enriched summer rainfall formed tightly bound soil water and MSW, respectively. The dynamic mixing between tightly bound soil water and MSW resuted in BSW with more depleted and variable stable isotopic feature than MSW. 2) Along with the thawing of the frozen soil, surface runoff and shallowsubsurface flow (SSF) at 30−60 cm was the major flow pathway in the permafrost influenced alpine meadow hillslope during spring snowmelt and summer rainfall period, reapectively, with the frozen soil maintaining supra-permafrost water level. 3) Comparison between two neighouring catchments under similar precipitation conditions indicated that streamflow of the lower catchment with less permafrost proportion and earlier thawing time has larger SSF and higher based flow component, indicating the potential changes of hydrological regims subject to future warming.

How to cite: Zhang, F., Xiao, X., and Wang, G.: Runoff generation processes in permafrost-influenced area of the Heihe River Headwater, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1660, 2021.

EGU21-16555 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

The effects of multiple factors on spring meltwater erosion on an alpine meadow slope

Xiaonan Shi, Fan Zhang, and Li Wang

Serious soil erosion is observed during the spring because soil thawing coincides with the period of snowmelt and low meadow coverage at this time. Studies relating to soil erosion caused by spring meltwater are limited and controversial. In this study, a field experimental study was conducted in an alpine meadow slope in the Binggou watershed on the northern edge of the Tibetan Plateau to assess the impact of multiple factors on spring meltwater erosion. The multiple factors included three flow rates, four slope gradients, and three underlying surface conditions (meadow, disturbed meadow, and alluvial soil). An equal volume of concentrated meltwater flow was used in all experiments. The results showed that rapid melting at a high flow rate could accelerate soil erosion. The influence of the slope gradient on the amount of runoff was positively linear and the influence was relatively low. However, the slope gradient had a strong impact on soil erosion. The meadow could effectively reduce soil erosion, although when the meadow was disturbed, the total runoff increased by 60% and the sediment yield by a factor of 1.5. The total runoff from the alluvial soil doubled in comparison to the meadow, while the sediment yield increased nearly 7-fold. The findings of this study could be helpful to understand the characteristics and impact of multiple controlling factors of spring meltwater erosion. It also aims to provide a scientific basis for an improved management of alpine meadows as well as water and soil conservation activities in high-altitude cold regions.

 

How to cite: Shi, X., Zhang, F., and Wang, L.: The effects of multiple factors on spring meltwater erosion on an alpine meadow slope, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16555, 2021.

EGU21-3669 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

How does the South Asian summer monsoon anomaly influence the interannual variations in precipitation over the South-Central Tibetan Plateau

Yanxin Zhu, Yan-Fang Sang, Deliang Chen, Bellie Sivakumar, and Donghuan Li

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) system is one of the most energetic regional monsoon systems. Its onset and demise timings determine the propagation, duration, and magnitude of precipitation through thermodynamic and dynamic processes in the SASM-prevailing areas. Particularly, anomalous onsets and demises of the SASM could generate a large anomaly in precipitation and serious water-related disasters over the SASM-prevailing areas.

The South-Central Tibetan Plateau (SCTP), known as the “Asian water tower”, is the origin of several major Asian rivers, including the Yellow River, Yangtze River, Brahmaputra River, Mekong River, and the Indus River, providing a huge amount of freshwater for ecosystems and billions of people in Asia. It is widely known that the SCTP is controlled by the SASM system in summer, accounting for approximately 60% of annual precipitation, but with significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity due to the complex topographic and geographic conditions. Presently, most studies have focused on the effects and physical causes of the linear trend of SASM onset over the SCTP. However, little attention has been paid to the question as to how both anomalous onset and anomalous demise of the SASM influence the interannual precipitation variation in this region. In particular, the spatial manifestation of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for the interannual precipitation variation is largely unknown. Adequate knowledge about these mechanisms is critical for sustainable freshwater management and water disasters control in this region and surrounding areas.

These call a detailed study to investigate the influences of the early and late onset (demise) of the SASM system on the interannual variations in precipitation and their underlying mechanisms over the SCTP. In this study, we mainly clarify the following key questions: (1) How do the onset and demise of the SASM control the interannual variations in precipitation over the SCTP? (2) Is there an asymmetric effect of the SASM on SCTP precipitation between its onset and demise, and between its early and late onset (demise)? and (3) What are the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for the variations in interannual precipitation? The results would help improve our understanding of the SASM-precipitation relationship over the SCTP and alleviation of water-related disasters in the region.

How to cite: Zhu, Y., Sang, Y.-F., Chen, D., Sivakumar, B., and Li, D.: How does the South Asian summer monsoon anomaly influence the interannual variations in precipitation over the South-Central Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3669, 2021.

EGU21-1565 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Ecological impacts caused by the alternance of wet/dry episodes occurred in the last 2,000 years in southern Tibetan Plateau: A paleoecological record from Lake Nam Co

Paula Galindo, Peter Frenzel, Sten Anslan, Sonja Rigterink, Julieta Massaferro, Wengang Kang, Bernd Wuennemann, Liseth Pérez, Philipp Hoelzmann, Nicole Börner, Anja Schwarz, Ping Peng, Liping Zhu, and Antje Schwalb

High altitudinal aquatic ecosystems are subject to environmental change due to global warming and increasing solar radiation. The Nam Co catchment is part of the highest and largest alpine plateau on Earth, where the effects of climate change are expressed stronger than the global average. Thus, this area has experienced rapid changes in biodiversity. Fluctuations between wetter and drier periods during the last 2,000 calibrated (cal.) years were detected. These changes may alter the dynamics in ecosystems and therefore their resilience to climate change.

A ~65 cm sediment record from Nam Co spanning the late Holocene, was analyzed to evaluate the assemblage composition of three of the most abundant and diverse benthic taxa (Arcellinidae, Ostracoda and Chironomidae) and the diverse family of small bivalves (Sphaeriidae). In general, the presence of the bivalve Pisidium stewarti, together with a high abundance of black-coated ostracod shells, and high Ca/Ti and Zr/Rb ratios correspond to the driest period (~ 1,000 - 1,860 cal. years BP) detected in our sediment record. For the last 256 cal. years, higher lake levels were inferred from aquatic fauna composition and geochemical analysis (XRF and XRD) suggesting a more humid environment. This period was characterized by higher temperatures and a higher input of organic matter. Species not previously reported for Lake Nam Co such as Arcellinida species, the ostracod Ilyocypris angulata, several chironomid species, and the bivalve P. stewarti, were observed. These new records, as well as the detection of varieties in morphological structures (e.g. spines, aggregate material, valve ornamentations, etc.) highlight the probable existence of cryptic species in the ecosystem, which is an important factor to take into account for biodiversity evaluation and paleoenvironmental inferences, due to potential misleading ecological interpretation.

Therefore, emphasis should be placed on combining ecology, morphology and DNA analysis to corroborate the taxonomy of species already described, and determine the accurate richness and distribution of the species in an environment where endemism is expected. This is essential in order to evaluate possible losses or gains in terms of diversity that climate change may exert on aquatic ecosystems in the future.

How to cite: Galindo, P., Frenzel, P., Anslan, S., Rigterink, S., Massaferro, J., Kang, W., Wuennemann, B., Pérez, L., Hoelzmann, P., Börner, N., Schwarz, A., Peng, P., Zhu, L., and Schwalb, A.: Ecological impacts caused by the alternance of wet/dry episodes occurred in the last 2,000 years in southern Tibetan Plateau: A paleoecological record from Lake Nam Co, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1565, 2021.

EGU21-8602 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Study on the Variation Trend of Potential Evapotranspiration in the Three-River Headwaters Region in China Over the Past 20 years

Xiaohang Wen, Wenqi Pan, Xiaoguang Sun, Maoshan Li, and Siqiong Luo
To study the variation trend of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, we use 2-m temperature and surface pressure observation data from 14 meteorological weather stations in the TRH region, and the surface PET is calculated by the Penman-Monteith formula. The global land surface data assimilation system from 2000 to 2018 were used to compare and verify the accuracy and applicability of the calculated PET in the THR region. The results show that in the past 20 years, the PET of 14 weather stations in the TRH region has shown an increasing trend, with annual averaged growth rate of 1.4 ± 1.2 mm·a−1 , and the spatial distribution of the annual variation rate of PET has obvious difference. PET is higher in the eastern area of TRH region, and lower in the western area. The drought in this area increased from southeast to northwest, which was consistent with the spatial distribution of precipitation. The aridity index K has flfluctuated and increased before 2015, but there was a sudden change in 2018, and the aridity index K in the TRH began to decline after 2018, and the climate changed from dry to wet.

How to cite: Wen, X., Pan, W., Sun, X., Li, M., and Luo, S.: Study on the Variation Trend of Potential Evapotranspiration in the Three-River Headwaters Region in China Over the Past 20 years, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8602, 2021.

The melting of glaciers and snow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the Earth’s “Third Pole” and “World Water Tower”, is source of fresh water for hundreds of millions of people in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, but it is now suffering from an unprecedented crisis. The black carbon deposited on the surface of the glacier will reduce the snow albedo and absorb more solar radiation, leading to accelerated melting of ice and snow.Previous studies have shown that black carbon from South Asia is one of the main sources of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the transportation of black carbon to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau presents obviously seasonal differences.However, the transport of black carbon from South Asia to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in different seasons shows a completely opposite trend to wind field conditions.This study uses the WRF-Chem model to study the transmission mechanism of South Asian black carbon to the Tibetan Plateau in April (pre-monsoon), July (summer monsoon) and December (winter monsoon).MIX emission inventory and Peking University's global black carbon emission inventory (PKU-BC) were involved to analyze the seasonal distribution of black carbon concentration, dry and wet deposition in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South Asia, and the distribution of BC concentration and wind field at different altitudes.Combined with the vertical distribution of BC concentration across the Himalayas, the transport mechanism of black carbon in South Asia to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in different seasons is studied.In the selected three months, December had the highest surface black carbon concentration in South Asia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while July had the lowest black carbon concentration; Mainly because of the large amount of wet deposition of black carbon brought about by the heavy precipitation in South Asia in July;According to the vertical distribution of black carbon,black carbon can climb up the hillside and eventually reach the southern slope of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in April. In July, black carbon is mainly distributed below 3km. In December, black carbon can be uplifted to 4-5km, and finally transported into Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

How to cite: Wu, S. and Ma, X.: Comparing Seasonal Diffences of Black Carbon in Tibetan Plateau transported from South Asia using WRF-Chem, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6825, 2021.

Carbonaceous particles play an important role in climate change, and the increase in their emission and deposition causes glacier melting in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau (HTP). This implies that studying their basic characteristics is crucial for a better understanding of the climate forcing observed in this area. Thus, we investigated characteristics of carbonaceous particles at Yaze village, a typical remote site of southeastern HTP.  The results showed that the organic carbon and elemental carbon concentrations at this study site were 1.86 ± 0.84 and 0.18 ± 0.09 μg m-3, respectively, which were much lower than those reported for other frequently monitored stations in the same region. Thus, these values reflect the background characteristics of the study site. Additionally, the absorption coefficient per mass (α/ρ) of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) at 365 nm was 0.60 ± 0.19 m2 g-1, which was lower than those reported for other remote stations in the HTP. This value could be attributed to a lower and higher contribution of mineral dust and secondary organic carbon, respectively. Multi-dimensional fluorescence analysis showed that the WSOC consisted of approximately 37% and 63% protein and humic-like components, respectively, and the latter was identified as the determining component of light absorption ability of the WSOC. Combined the significant relationships between WSOC and sulfate ion, potassium ion, and nitrate ion with the air masses at the study site originated primarily from South Asia, it is suggested that the levels of carbonaceous particles in Yaze village were predominantly influenced by emissions from South Asia.

How to cite: Zhang, C., Chen, M., Kang, S., Yan, F., and Li, C.: Light absorption and fluorescence characteristics of water-soluble organic compounds in carbonaceous particles at a typical remote site in the southeastern Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3653, 2021.

EGU21-1559 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

The observation and modeling of air-land interaction over heterogeneous landscapes of the Third Pole

Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Binbin Wang, Lei Zhong, Weiqiang Ma, Cunbo Han, Xuelong Chen, Lian Liu, Sunil Subba, Zhipeng Xie, and Yuyang Wang

The exchange of heat and water vapor between land surface and atmosphere over the Third Pole region (Tibetan Plateau and nearby surrounding region) plays an important role in Asian monsoon, westerlies and the northern hemisphere weather and climate systems. Supported by various agencies in the People’s Republic of China, a Third Pole Environment (TPE) observation and research Platform (TPEORP) is now implementing over the Third Pole region. The background of the establishment of the TPEORP, the establishing and monitoring plan of long-term scale (5-10 years) of it will be shown firstly. Then the preliminary observational analysis results, such as the characteristics of land surface energy fluxes partitioning and the turbulent characteristics will also been shown in this study. Then, the parameterization methodology based on satellite data and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observations has been proposed and tested for deriving regional distribution of net radiation flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux (evapotranspiration (ET)) and their variation trends over the heterogeneous landscape of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. To validate the proposed methodology, the ground measured net radiation flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux of the TPEORP are compared to the derived values. The results showed that the derived land surface heat fluxes over the study areas are in good accordance with the land surface status. These parameters show a wide range due to the strong contrast of surface feature. And the estimated land surface heat fluxes are in good agreement with ground measurements, and all the absolute percent difference in less than 10% in the validation sites. The sensible heat flux has increased slightly and the latent heat flux has decreased from 2001 to 2018 over the TP. It is therefore conclude that the proposed methodology is successful for the retrieval of land surface heat fluxes and ET over heterogeneous landscape of the TP area. Further improvement of the methodology and its applying field over the whole Third Pole region and Pan-Third Pole region were also discussed.

How to cite: Ma, Y., Hu, Z., Wang, B., Zhong, L., Ma, W., Han, C., Chen, X., Liu, L., Subba, S., Xie, Z., and Wang, Y.: The observation and modeling of air-land interaction over heterogeneous landscapes of the Third Pole, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1559, 2021.

EGU21-5776 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

The South Asia Monsoon Break Promotes Grass Growth on the Tibetan Plateau

Yanghang Ren, Kun Yang, and Han Wang

As region that is highly sensitive to global climate change, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) experiences an intra-seasonal soil water deficient due to the reduced precipitation during the South Asia monsoon (SAM) break. Few studies have investigated the impact of the SAM break on TP ecological processes, although a number of studies have explored the effects of inter-annual and decadal climate variability. In this study, the response of vegetation activity to the SAM break was investigated. The data used are: (1) soil moisture from in situ, satellite remote sensing and data assimilation; and (2) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF). We found that in the region impacted by SAM break, which is distributed in the central-eastern part of TP, photosynthesis become more active during the SAM break. And temporal variability in the photosynthesis of this region is controlled mainly by solar radiation variability and has little sensitivity to soil moisture. We adopted a diagnostic process-based modeling approach to examine the causes of enhanced plant activity during the SAM break on the central-eastern TP. Our analysis indicates that active photosynthetic behavior in the reduced precipitation is stimulated by increases in solar radiation absorbed and temperature. This study highlights the importance of sub-seasonal climate variability for characterizing the relationship between vegetation and climate.

How to cite: Ren, Y., Yang, K., and Wang, H.: The South Asia Monsoon Break Promotes Grass Growth on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5776, 2021.

Based on multi-level AWS data during 2001 to 2015 and eddy covariance data during 2011 to 2014 at Nagqu Station of Plateau Climate and Environment, the turbulent fluxes were calculated by a surface energy balance combination (CM) and eddy covariance ( EC) method. A long-term heat fluxes and surface heat source were obtained with comparison and correction of EC and CM fluxes. The surface energy closure ratio is close to 1 in spring, summer and autumn. But it reaches to 1.34 in winter due to low net radiation observation value on snow surface. The sensible heat flux shows a ascend trend while latent heat flux shows a descend trend during 2002 to 2015. The surface heat source shows a descend trend. The analysis of the surface heat source indicates that it has a significant relationship with net radiation flux, surface temperature, soil moisture and wind speed. Particularly, the surface heat source has a significant response to net radiation flux throughout the year. There are obvious influences of surface temperature and soil moisture on the surface heat source in spring, autumn and winter. And the influence of wind speeds on surface heat source is strong only in spring. The annual variation of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux are obvious. Sensible heat flux reaches the maximum value of the year in April and the minimum value in July. however, latent heat flux shows the maximum value in July and the minimum value in January. 

How to cite: Hu, Z. and Yan, X.: Characteristics of Long-term Surface Heat Source and Its Climate Influence Factors in Central Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6903, 2021.

EGU21-2676 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Estimation of land surface key parameters for the study of energy and water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau based on geostationary and polar orbiting satellites

Lei Zhong, Yaoming Ma, Zhongbo Su, Weiqiang Ma, Zeyong Hu, and Cunbo Han

Estimation of land surface characteristic parameters and turbulent heat fluxes is important for energy and water cycle studies, especially on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where the topography is unique and the land-atmosphere interactions are strong. The land surface heating conditions also directly influence the movement of atmospheric circulation. However, high temporal resolution information on the plateau-scale land surface parameters has lacked for a long time, which significantly limits the understanding of diurnal variations in land-atmosphere interactions. On the other hand, how to remove cloud effects for optical satellite images is another important research issue. Based on Chinese FY geostationary satellite data and other polar orbiting satellite data, the hourly land surface characteristic parameters and turbulent heat fluxes were estimated. A new cloud‐free time series of vegetation index data sets was reconstructed, and the vegetation density showed a general increasing trend along with a warming trend in the TP. The regions showing significant increases accounted for 7.63% of the total Tibetan territory. Downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation parameterization schemes were improved to derive all-sky radiation over the TP. The diurnal and seasonal cycles of the land surface parameters were clearly identified, and their spatial distribution was found to be consistent with the heterogeneous land surface conditions and the general hydrometeorological conditions of the TP.

How to cite: Zhong, L., Ma, Y., Su, Z., Ma, W., Hu, Z., and Han, C.: Estimation of land surface key parameters for the study of energy and water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau based on geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2676, 2021.

EGU21-16556 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation on the northern slopes of the Himalaya region from 1979 to 2018

Yizhe Han, Yaoming Ma, Zhongyan Wang, and Weiqiang Ma

The northern slopes of Himalaya (NSH) have the highest average elevation in the world. It is difficult to assess how climate change has affected this region because only a few observations are available from the high terrain and harsh environment. This study investigates the long-term characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the NSH. Further, the association of these variations with atmospheric circulation patterns is also investigated. Our results indicated that the warming trend in this region is almost 1.5 times that of the TP region, 2 times that of China, and 3.5 times that of the world. Additionally, the warming rate of the NSH is more obvious than other regions in the Himalayas, which shows that different regions of the Himalayas have different sensitivity to climate change. Although the warming trend in the NSH region does not show obvious seasonal differences like the TP, the temperature increase rate in autumn and winter is still higher than that in spring and summer. The abrupt change point for the temperature increase in summer was about 5 years later than that in other seasons, indicating that the NSH region is more sensitive to climate warming in cooler seasons, which is similar to the western and northwestern Himalaya. Furthermore, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) displays significant relationships with the temperature in the NSH, meanwhile, the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) and Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPI) also exist some correlations with seasonal temperature change. This indicating that the atmospheric circulation would also have affected the temperature increase in this region, especially in summer and winter. The changes in precipitation are only affected by the SOI during the monsoon season (June to September), indicating that ENSO influences precipitation changes through water vapor transmission. In contrast, the precipitation in the TP is correlated with NAO, SOI and WPI, which indicating the precipitation of the TP might be affected by multiple circulation systems.

 

 

How to cite: Han, Y., Ma, Y., Wang, Z., and Ma, W.: Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation on the northern slopes of the Himalaya region from 1979 to 2018, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16556, 2021.

Precipitation usually is the main source of river discharge in the high mountain headwater areas and therefore as a key parameter in hydrological modelling. However, spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in the remote high mountain headwater areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been poorly described due to the scarce meteorological stations located in high elevations. A series of rain gauges were set-up in three catchments of the southern TP to study their precipitation (liquid) gradient (PG) characteristics under different precipitation intensity grades (PIG) during the monsoon season (July to September) from 2013 to 2016. Results showed that the average PG varied during 0.71 to 0.82 mm·100 m-1 in the three study catchments for the total (non-intensity-graded) precipitation during the monsoon, and varied up to 2.4 times under different PIGs. Besides, PGs were all strongly correlated to precipitation amounts in the three study catchments, these patterns were relatively persistent among different years but varied among different catchments. Generally, the correlations between PG and precipitation amount showed a steep positive slope under fine precipitation grade but became flat or even negative with stronger PIG. We concluded that the precipitation in southern Tibet was influenced more by valley-scale convection than by large-scale vapor circulation during the monsoon season.

How to cite: Zeng, C. and Zhang, F.: Study on the precipitation gradient characteristics in the high mountains of southern Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16557, 2021.

EGU21-7886 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Types and amounts of the precipitation changes in recent 50 years of the Babao River basin

Guanxing Wang and Fan Zhang

Being an important water resource of the local and downstream living hoods, precipitation amount is experiencing drastic changes in the Babao River basin in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation types also have great impacts on the runoff. However, in usual cases, weather stations only record precipitation amount without discriminating its type. Here, we compared results from three methods at improving precipitation type (solid and liquid) estimation with discontinuous 24 years precipitation type records of the Qilian gauging station. The results (bias rank of the three methods is 2.5% < 17.3% < 20.1%) showed that the estimation of different thresholds for wet season (4 °C) and dry season (5.5 °C) is the closest to the actual records. Based on the precipitation type distinction, the precipitation type and its amount changing trend in recent 50 years of the Babao River basin was examined. On average, snowfall accounts for 10.7% in whole year, and mainly happens in March, April, May and October (8.9% in whole year). In the context of climate warming, the annual precipitation and rainfall increasing significantly while the annual snowfall decreased slightly. Furthermore, on the perspective of monthly changes, rainfall amounts of May and August enhanced significantly while snowfall amount decreased significantly in June and September. The above conclusions indicated the warming climate also changed the precipitation pattern in the Babao River basin which would likely cause drought in the spring season and bring challenge to the local agriculture.

How to cite: Wang, G. and Zhang, F.: Types and amounts of the precipitation changes in recent 50 years of the Babao River basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7886, 2021.

EGU21-9331 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Convection permitting simulation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

Zhaoyang Liu and Yanhong Gao

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the "Third Pole" and "Water Tower of Asia", plays an essential role in the regional water cycle and global climate change through its unique topography and abundant water resources. Precipitation is an important part of the hydrological process, but realistically simulating precipitation over the TP is still a major challenge for most models, which hinders our understanding of the strength of the land-atmosphere interaction and its influences on regional, or even global climate and water cycle. In order to better depict precipitation spatial and temporal distributions over the TP, a 4-km convection permitting modelling (CPM) and a 28-km dynamical downscale modelling (DDM) using the weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) were conducted for a summer (from June to August 2014). WRF simulations are evaluated against CMA in-situ observations, the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), as well as two reanalysis datasets ERA-Interim and ERA5. We focus on the added values of the CPM in summer precipitation simulations, in terms of the spatial seasonal mean precipitation amounts, spatial distributions, and diurnal cycles. We found the six datasets (CPM, DDM, APHRODITE, GPM, ERA-Interim and ERA5) showed great differences in summer precipitation over the TP. The great advantages of CPM and DDM over reanalyses are observed. Slight improvements are found in CPM over DDM as well. Mechanisms for these differences will be explored.

How to cite: Liu, Z. and Gao, Y.: Convection permitting simulation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9331, 2021.

EGU21-5391 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Long-term variation of characteristics of local land atmosphere coupling over TP and the possible influence of Southern Asian Monsoon

Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Wei Wei, and Song Yang

This study investigates the long-term variations of local land atmosphere coupling (LoCo) over Tibetan Plateau (TP) by applying a mixing diagram to the observational data at six stations over TP and ERA5 and the possible influence of Southern Asian monsoon. The result indicates that the monthly-mean daily variation in T2m, q2m, Hsfc, and LEsfc at Nyingchi, Nagqu, Nam Co, Qomolangma, Ngari, and Muztagata in ERA5 are close to those in observational data. Comparison of mixing diagram analysis using the monthly-mean variables of ERA5 and the observational data indicates ERA5 could provide reliable information of LoCo at six stations. The relationships between Hsfc and daytime PBLH, and the variations of LCL deficit at six stations are different due to the differences in the soil states. The long-term variations in the PBL energy budgets, mean daytime PBLH, and LCL deficits at 31N and 90E show clear annual variations and have a close relationship between Southern Asian monsoon. The possible influence of the Southern Asian monsoon is also discussed in terms of the relationship between the Webster-Yang index and the PBL energy budgets, mean PBLH and mean LCL over TP.

How to cite: Sun, G., Hu, Z., Ma, Y., Xie, Z., Wei, W., and Yang, S.: Long-term variation of characteristics of local land atmosphere coupling over TP and the possible influence of Southern Asian Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5391, 2021.

EGU21-6869 | vPICO presentations | HS6.10

Spring Dust over the Tibetan Plateau and Connections with North Atlantic SST Variability

Chao Xu, Yaoming Ma, Jiehua Ma, Chao You, and Huijun Wang

Dust is a major component of atmospheric aerosol worldwide, greatly affecting regional and global climate. A dust belt can be clearly found at altitudes higher than 6 km over the downwind direction of the TP at latitudes of around 30°–40°N, crossing the Pacific Ocean and extending to North America during spring. Dust is uplifted to the midtroposphere over the source regions; then, frequent, deep, dry convection prevailing over the TP during spring can cause convective overshooting that uplifts the dust aerosols to the upper troposphere. The TP thus acts as a channel for transporting dust from the lower atmosphere to the upper troposphere, enabling the long-range zonal transport of dust around the Northern Hemisphere. Estimated spring dust mass flux (DMF) showed a significant declining trend over the TP during 2007-2019. The total spring DMF across the TP was mainly affected by DMFs over the Tarim Basin, while the spring DMF across the TP in the mid-troposphere was also connected with DMFs over the northwest Indian Peninsula and Central Asia. Inter-annual variability of spring DMF across the TP was strongly correlated with the North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature (SST) tripole. The North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomalies persist into the subsequent spring, and induce a corresponding atmosphere response. A strong positive North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomaly strengthens the upper-level westerly jets, enhancing air flow towards the TP mid-troposphere; together, these circulation patterns cause anomalous cyclonic conditions in the lower troposphere, especially over the Tarim Basin, via the eastwards propagation of a Rossby wave train. These atmospheric circulation conditions are likely to increase the frequency of dust occurrence and promote the transport of dust onto the TP.

How to cite: Xu, C., Ma, Y., Ma, J., You, C., and Wang, H.: Spring Dust over the Tibetan Plateau and Connections with North Atlantic SST Variability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6869, 2021.

HS7.1 – Precipitation variability from drop scale to catchment scale : measurement, processes and hydrological applications

EGU21-14097 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Precipitation variability from drop scale to urban scale in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro region

Chandrasekar V Chandra and Yingzhao Ma

Precipitation variability from drop scale to regional scale is not fully understood, except we know there is variability at all scales.  The Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) urban demonstration network consists of a high-resolution, dual-polarized X-band radar network and a National Weather Service S-band radar system for areal coverage as well as a network of in-situ instruments including tipping bucket gauges, and disdrometers in the DFW international airport. Based on the CASA DFW monitoring platform, we have been exploring the rainfall variability across the airport scale of a large airport such as DFW.  We study the variability of precipitation within the airport grounds and the corresponding impact on airport monitoring and regulatory compliance issues. We also extend this variability analysis across the DFW metro which is also considered a large metro region. The particle size distribution and its small-scale variability are analyzed on both heavy and light rainfall events. As for the catchment scale, the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation in the DFW international airport is specially explored. As for the regional scale, the DFW metropolis is used, and its precipitation variability and trends are demonstrated under the DFW urban radar network. Finally, hydrological response to precipitation variability during the rainstorm event in the DFW international airport is discussed. These observations provide an insight into the relation between space time variability of precipitation and practical response activities in an important region such as airport grounds.  

 

How to cite: Chandra, C. V. and Ma, Y.: Precipitation variability from drop scale to urban scale in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro region, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14097, 2021.

EGU21-4729 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Extreme precipitations measured by radar

András Bárdossy and Geoff Pegram

Radar measurements provide information on precipitation in space and time. They do not measure precipitation but reflectivity. The transformation to precipitation is not straightforward.  The result is that different, partly random, partly systematic errors may occur.  Radar precipitation pixels are usually considered to measure the mean over a large area of 500 x 500 m. However the measurement itself is represented in polar coordinates and is subsequently transformed to a Cartesian system. As the measurements in the polar coordinate system deliver areal averages corresponding to different block sizes this is likely to have an effect on the estimates of the true precipitation values. This particularly applies to extremes. In the outer circles of the radar scan the blocks are bigger, and thus the measurements deliver areal extremes where a kind of area reduction factor is the result of the resolution. In order to investigate the influence of this on the extremes two numerical simulation examples were considered. Results from a long high resolution simulation using the String of Beads model applied with data from South Africa, and of a copula based direct simulation, are analysed and presented. The results show that the extremes towards the outer ring of the radar observations may, under stationary conditions, be reduced by up to 20 %.

How to cite: Bárdossy, A. and Pegram, G.: Extreme precipitations measured by radar, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4729, 2021.

EGU21-4355 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Design of rain gauge network using radar and road network

Taeyong Kwon and Sanghoo Yoon

Uncertainty in the gauged network can lead to inaccuracies in dam operations. Entropy is a well-known measurement of uncertainty. Goesan Dam has a small basin area and is affected by a small amount of precipitation, and Hwacheon Dam is contained outside the territory of South Korea, making it difficult to observe the water flow. The observed gauged precipitation and radar data on rainy days were considered between 2018 and 2019. Choosing appropriate radar were performed based on the priority of the rainfall gauge network using conditional entropy. This is because the rainfall gauge network is the actual precipitation and it can only cover certain points. However, the radar is the cloud reflectivity of a large area. Therefore the location of additional rain spots was selected through conditional entropy of highly consistent radar data. Nevertheless, there might be difficulties in installing gauged equipment in reality. So the optimal rainfall network was designed in consideration of the road network. As a result, the uncertainty of precipitation in Goesan Dam and Hwachoen Dam could be decreased by 63.3% and 67.9% respectively when three additional potential rain points were operated without any restriction. The uncertainty in the Goesan Dam basin and Hwachoen Dam would be reduced up to 55.3% and 65.0% when three additional potential rain points were installed nearby the road network. Therefore, through the proposed method, an optimal rainfall network can be designed by balancing cost and uncertainty.

This work was supported by KOREA HYDRO & NUCLEAR POWER CO., LTD (No. 2018-Tech-20)

How to cite: Kwon, T. and Yoon, S.: Design of rain gauge network using radar and road network, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4355, 2021.

In-situ liquid precipitation measurements are the essential source of information about the rainfall process, its spatiotemporal variability, and the expected frequency of intense events. Other sources are remote sensors or the measurement of hydrologically connected variables, such as the water flow in rivers or evaporation, but all these only provide indirect estimates of precipitation. Notwithstanding the advantage of allowing areal estimates, they still require accompanying in-situ measurements for calibration or validation purposes.

The accuracy of in-situ precipitation measurements, though understated in most research studies and hydrological applications, is imperative to substantiate both scientific achievements and decision making. Unfortunately, due to budgetary shortages and other priorities, the managers of monitoring networks rarely address accuracy and traceability issues to a significant extent, and measurements are performed at a much lower level of accuracy than the current scientific knowledge and technological development would actually permit.

The neglected precipitation measurement biases propagate through the applications or the modelling chain and their awareness is often rapidly lost, together with the reliability of the obtained results. The comparability and homogeneity of precipitation estimates and their hydrological consequences between different studies is also questionable.

High-resolution measurements, even down to the scale of the single drop, are the way to achieve better knowledge of the precipitation process and to raise the confidence of users in the accuracy of their basic source of information. In this work, based on the most recent results in precipitation measurement studies, we aim at demonstrating that the accuracy of catchment scale rainfall and snowfall estimates rely on the interpretation of high-resolution raw data from traditional sensors and on the knowledge of the drop size distribution and other microphysical parameters of the rainfall process. Drop scale measurements must be accurate as well, and this is still an open issue for the currently available disdrometers.

How to cite: Lanza, L. G. and Cauteruccio, A.: The link between the drop scale, high resolution measurements and precipitation estimates at the catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12771, 2021.

EGU21-12445 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Combined rainfall estimates from personal weather station and commercial microwave link data in Germany

Maximilian Graf, Abbas El Hachem, Micha Eisele, Jochen Seidel, Christian Chwala, Harald Kunstmann, and András Bárdossy

Rain gauges and weather radars are the default sources of rainfall information. Rainfall estimates from these sensors improve our understanding of the hydrological cycle and are vital for water-resource management, agriculture, urban planning, as well as for weather, climate, and hydrological modelling. Still, due to the high spatio-temporal variability of rainfall and the specific drawbacks of the individual rainfall sensors, the rainfall variability cannot be captured completely. In the last decade, the number and availability of opportunistic rainfall sensors increased rapidly. These sensors are initially not meant to measure rainfall for scientific or operational purposes, but, if processed carefully, can be used for these cases . Here we present an analysis of two years of data from two opportunistic rainfall sensors, namely personal weather stations (PWS) and commercial microwave links (CMLs). We evaluate the performance of rainfall maps derived from these sensors on different spatial and temporal scales in Germany.

The data from around 15000 PWS tipping bucket-style rain gauges from the Netatmo network were accessed via Netatmos API. The data from around 4000 CMLs, which can be used to derive rainfall estimates from the rain-induced attenuation of the CMLs’ signal, were obtained from Ericsson. As both, PWS and CML data, can suffer from various error sources e.g. from unfavourable positioning and poor maintenance of PWS and from non-rain induced attenuation of the CMLs signal, we used a strict filtering routine. A total of seven gridded rainfall products were derived from different combinations of PWS, CML, and rain gauge data from the German Weather Service (DWD) with a geostatistical interpolation approach. This approach incorporates the uncertainty of the opportunistic sensors and the path-averaging characteristic of the CML observations.

To evaluate the resulting rainfall maps, we used three rain gauge data sets with different temporal and spatial scales covering the whole of Germany, the state of Rhineland-Palatinate and the city of Reutlingen, respectively. For all three reference data sets, rainfall maps from opportunistic sensors provided good agreement, with best results being derived from the combinations with PWS. Rainfall maps including CML data had the lowest bias. In a comparison with gauge adjusted radar products from the DWD, the radar products yielded better results than the rainfall maps from opportunistic sensors for the country-wide comparison of daily rainfall sums, which was carried out using the DWD’s independent network of manual rain gauges. But for the hourly references covering Rhineland-Palatinate and Reutlingen, the rainfall maps derived from opportunistic sensors outperformed the radar products. These results highlight the capabilities of opportunistic rainfall sensors which could be used in many hydrometeorological applications.

How to cite: Graf, M., El Hachem, A., Eisele, M., Seidel, J., Chwala, C., Kunstmann, H., and Bárdossy, A.: Combined rainfall estimates from personal weather station and commercial microwave link data in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12445, 2021.

EGU21-8454 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Citywide rainfall estimates from hundreds of E-band CMLs

Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Martin Fencl, and Vojtech Bares

Commercial Microwave Links (CMLs) have demonstrated to be a valuable complementary measuring technique with regard to rainfall measuring. Their intrinsic characteristics give them an edge over traditional networks such as meteorological radars, satellites, and rain gauges. For instance, given their high density, especially in urban areas, they offer a higher spatial (and even temporal) resolution against rainfall observations from rain gauges. Moreover, they observe rainfall in a close proximity to the ground surface compared to radar and/or meteorological satellites. As their use in monitoring rainfall is in its “early stage”, there are still some challenges to overcome, e.g., a low accuracy when observing light rainfall.

In general, CMLs networks used to operate within the C, X, Ku, K, and Ka bands of the electromagnetic spectrum (i.e., ~4 - 40GHz) over distances varying from hundreds-of-meters to tens-of-kilometres. A big advantage offered by these bands is the linear relationship between rainfall intensity and power attenuation, which actually is the cornerstone of rainfall retrievals from CMLs. Nevertheless, as the continuously increasing demand for a larger throughput in such networks, mobile operators are gradually moving into the 71 - 86 GHz region, i.e., the E band. This fact alone brings more challenges in the retrieval of rainfall as the relationship between rainfall intensity and power attenuation not only starts departing from linearity in this band but also is more sensitive to the drop size distribution of rainfall. On the other hand, over such frequencies/band, it is possible now to reliably monitor rainfall intensities lower than 1 mm/h, which was practically impossible with lower-frequency CMLs.

Our work focuses on the performance of ~250 E-Band CMLs over a continuous period of ~7 months in 2020. These CMLs are part of a larger network located in the city of Prague (Czech Republic) and its surroundings. We evaluate their performance against a local network of ~50 rain gauges. We demonstrate the potential of E-band CMLs in retrieving accurate estimates for both light and heavy rainfall. Recently, there has been only few studies focused on E-band links. Our contribution to the field is in performing analyses over a larger spatio-temporal scale.

How to cite: Rios Gaona, M. F., Fencl, M., and Bares, V.: Citywide rainfall estimates from hundreds of E-band CMLs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8454, 2021.

EGU21-13247 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Commercial microwave links as rainfall input data in urban hydrological modelling

Greta Cazzaniga, Carlo De Michele, Cristina Deidda, Michele D'Amico, Antonio Ghezzi, and Roberto Nebuloni

Many studies in literature have showed that hydrological models are highly sensitive to spatial variability of the rainfall field. Limited and inaccurate rainfall observations can negatively affect flood forecasting and the decision-making processes based on warning system. This problem becomes much more evident in urban catchments which usually covers huge areas and where the runoff process is faster, due to the highly impervious surfaces. Given this, it is a priority to develop always new operational instruments which can improve rainfall data availability and accurately quantify rainfall variability in space. To face this challenge, in the recent years, it has been investigated the use of commercial microwave links (CML) as opportunistic rainfall sensors which could be integrated with traditional rainfall observations in areas lacking sensors. The technique relies on the well-established relationship between CML's signal attenuation and rainfall intensity across the signal propagation path. Here, we assess the operational potential of a CML network, located in the northern area of Lambro river (Lombardia region, Italy). This urbanized region is of great hydrological interest, since it is often subjected to flash floods, hence it requires a robust and accurate warning system. We considered a set of about 80 CMLs distributed quite uniformly over the entire study area and we assessed if and how rainfall data collected by them can improve river discharge predictions. To this aim, we implemented a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, which reproduces the river flow at the outlet section in Lesmo (Monza e Brianza), and we fed the hydrological model with CML rainfall data. We tested the use of CML rainfall data as input to the hydrological model. In particular, we used path-averaged rainfall intensities, calculated from CML path attenuation, as point measurements with a weight inversely proportional to CML length. To check the suitability of CML data as input to our urban rainfall-runoff model, we compared the observed river discharge with the predicted one, obtained using different rainfall data layouts. Indeed, we tested CML data but also rain gauges measurements and a combination of CML and rain gauge observations.

How to cite: Cazzaniga, G., De Michele, C., Deidda, C., D'Amico, M., Ghezzi, A., and Nebuloni, R.: Commercial microwave links as rainfall input data in urban hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13247, 2021.

EGU21-1622 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Modifications to the Effective Sample Area in Data Acquired by 2-Dimensional Video Disdrometers

Michael L. Larsen and Christopher K. Blouin

The 2-Dimensional Video Disdrometer (manufactured by Joanneum Research) is an instrument widely used for ground validation and precipitation microphysics studies. This instrument is capable of reporting back multiple properties of each detected hydrometeor; fields in the data record include arrival time, fall velocity, oblateness, mass-weighted equivalent diameter, detection position, and estimated detector sample area for each detected drop.

The last of these variables is necessary for using the data record to reliably estimate the instantaneous rain rate and total accumulations; it varies from detected drop to detected drop because a detected hydrometer must be fully enclosed within a fixed sample area to be successfully characterized by the instrument; this means that larger droplets have a smaller region that their centers can fall through and still be accurately measured. Careful analysis reveals that improvements can be made to the manufacturer’s calculation of this drop-dependent effective sample area.

These improvements are related to four key observations. (1) Due to the optical geometry of the instrument, not every pixel comprising the detection area has the same size. (2) The manufacturer’s algorithm makes some sub-optimal corrections for accounting for the detection area boundary. (3) The assumed extent of the full detection area field-of-view has been found to be slightly inaccurate. (4) There is a recently found anomaly that intermittently renders part of the detection area insensitive to reliable drop detection.

Here, we present a review of these observations, outline the structure of a simple post-processing algorithm developed to adjust the effective sampling area for each drop, and present results quantifying the overall impact on precipitation accumulations for a data record incorporating over 200 million detected raindrops.

How to cite: Larsen, M. L. and Blouin, C. K.: Modifications to the Effective Sample Area in Data Acquired by 2-Dimensional Video Disdrometers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1622, 2021.

EGU21-10750 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

The wind-induced bias of the Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor obtained using CFD and a Lagrangian particle tracking model

Enrico Chinchella, Arianna Cauteruccio, Mattia Stagnaro, and Luca G. Lanza

Environmental sources of measurement biases affect the accuracy of non-catching (mostly contact-less) precipitation gauges (Lanza et al., 2021). Wind is among the most significant influencing variables, since instruments exposed to the wind generate strong airflow velocity gradients and turbulence near their sensing volume. Hydrometeor trajectories are diverted by the induced updraft/downdraft and acceleration near the instrument, affecting the measured particle size distribution, and leading to an over- or underestimation of the precipitation intensity. This bias is common to all precipitation measurement instruments, including traditional catching-type gauges, but is amplified in non-catching gauges due to their complex shapes and measuring principles. Wind also changes the velocity of the falling hydrometeors, introducing further potential biases since velocity is explicitly used by disdrometers (in combination with the hydrometeors size) to determine the type of precipitation and to discard outliers.

The present work focuses on the Thies laser precipitation monitor, which employs a laser beam to detect hydrometeors in fight. It has a complex, non-axisymmetric shape, due to the physical constraints of its measuring principle. To evaluate the effect of wind on liquid precipitation measurements, Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations were run, using OpenFOAM, together with a Lagrangian particle tracking model. The drag coefficient formulation validated by Cauteruccio et al. (2021) was implemented in the OpenFOAM package. Various drop diameters were considered (0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and from 1 to 8 mm in 1 mm increments), and for each drop size, the vertical and horizontal velocity components were set equal to the terminal velocity and the free-stream velocity, respectively. Nine angles of attack were considered, from 0° to 180°, in 22.5° increments. For each angle, five different wind speed values (2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 m/s) were simulated. Each combination was run twice, first using a constant velocity field (as if the instrument were transparent to the wind) to evaluate the sole shielding effect of the instrument body on the measurement section, and then using the effective velocity fields.

The data were then processed, using a suitable drop size distribution and for each velocity/angle/rainfall intensity combination the collection efficiency of the instrument was calculated. This work is funded as part of the activities of the EURAMET project 18NRM03 – “INCIPIT – Calibration and Accuracy of Non-Catching Instruments to measure liquid/solid atmospheric precipitation”.

References:

Lanza L.G., Merlone A., Cauteruccio A., Chinchella E., Stagnaro M., Dobre M., Garcia Izquierdo M.C., Nielsen J., Kjeldsen H., Roulet Y.A., Coppa G., Musacchio C., Bordianu C., 2021: Calibration of non-catching precipitation measurement instruments: a review. J. Meteorological Applications (submitted).

Cauteruccio A, Brambilla E, Stagnaro M, Lanza LG, Rocchi D, 2021: Wind tunnel validation of a particle tracking model to evaluate the wind-induced bias of precipitation measurements. Water Resour. Res., (conditionally accepted).

How to cite: Chinchella, E., Cauteruccio, A., Stagnaro, M., and Lanza, L. G.: The wind-induced bias of the Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor obtained using CFD and a Lagrangian particle tracking model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10750, 2021.

EGU21-10785 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Toward a low-cost disdrometer: simulating the collision of raindrops with a cantilever piezo film

Chi-Ling Wei, Wei-Jiun Su, Shu-Wei Chang, and Li-Pen Wang

Raindrop size distribution (DSD) is the key factor to derive reliable rainfall estimates. It is strongly related to a number of integral rainfall parameters, including rain intensity (R), rain water content (W) and radar echo (Z). Disdrometers are the senors commonly used to measure DSD based upon microwave or laser technologies; such as JWD (Joss-Waldvogel Disdrometer), Parsivel and 2DVD (Two-Dimensional Video Disdrometer). These sensors have different strengths and weakness, and they are relatively expensive. This hinders the possibility to have a large-scale and high-density observation of DSD. In this work, our goal is to explore the possibility to develop a lightweight and low-cost disdrometer with high accuracy.

We start with establish a model that can well simulate the signal reaction of a single drop falling on a cantilever piezo film. A series of experiments were conducted to test the reaction of drops with different sizes (diameters ranging from 2 - 4 mm) and as drops falling onto different locations of the film. We then modelled the collision by assuming the piezo film to be a damped cantilever beam and drop force to be a step force; and the drop force is derived based upon the measurement of the deflection of beam end, which is further used to fit the damp ratio. Preliminary results suggest that the signal reaction of a single drop hits can be well simulated based upon the proposed model under current experimental setting. More experiments and simulations are currently undergoing to explore the capacity of the proposed model with different drop falling velocity, size and position, as well as its reaction of multiple drops.  

How to cite: Wei, C.-L., Su, W.-J., Chang, S.-W., and Wang, L.-P.: Toward a low-cost disdrometer: simulating the collision of raindrops with a cantilever piezo film, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10785, 2021.

EGU21-12651 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Using the measured Particle Size Distribution to assess the wind-induced bias of catching-type raingauges.

Mattia Stagnaro, Arianna Cauteruccio, Luca Giovanni Lanza, and Pak-Wai Chan

Wind-induced biases that affect catching-type precipitation gauges have been largely studied in the literature and dedicated experimental campaigns in the field were carried out to quantify this bias for both liquid and solid precipitation (including the recent WMO intercomparison on solid precipitation – SPICE). Experimental results show a large variability of the Collection Efficiency (CE) curves that depend on the precipitation type, intensity and the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) (see e.g. Colli et al. 2020). This was confirmed by recent studies using Computational Fluid Dynamic simulations to assess the airflow pattern around the gauge body and particle tracking models to simulate the particle trajectories when approaching the collector and calculating the Catch Ratio (CR) associated with various drop size - wind speed combinations (see e.g. Colli et al 2016, Cauteruccio and Lanza 2020).

In the present study, the CR values derived from the work of Cauteruccio and Lanza (2020) for a catching-type cylindrical gauge as a function of the drop size were fitted with an inverse second-order polynomial. The parameters of such curves were themselves expressed as a function of the wind speed. This formulation was adopted to calculate the CE of a catching-type cylindrical gauge based on contemporary wind and PSD measurements. These were obtained at the field test site of the Hong Kong International Airport using six co-located anemometers and a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD), at one-minute resolution. The obtained CE was used to correct the rainfall intensity measured by three catching-type cylindrical gauges, located at the same site, and was compared with the ratio between the raw data measured by the three cylindrical gauges and the 2DVD rainfall intensity measurements. Results show the improvement due to the correction and suggest that the 2DVD is subject to some wind-induced bias as well.

References:

Cauteruccio, A. and L. G. Lanza, 2020. Parameterization of the Collection Efficiency of a Cylindrical Catching-Type Rain Gauge Based on Rainfall Intensity. Water, 12(12), 3431.

Colli, M., Lanza, L.G., Rasmussen, R. and J.M., Thériault, 2016. The Collection Efficiency of Shielded and Unshielded Precipitation Gauges. Part II: Modeling Particle Trajectories. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(1), 245-255.

Colli, M., Stagnaro, M., Lanza, L.G., Rasmussen, R. and J.M., Thériault, 2020. Adjustments for Wind-Induced Undercatch in Snowfall Measurements based on Precipitation Intensity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21, 1039-1050.

How to cite: Stagnaro, M., Cauteruccio, A., Lanza, L. G., and Chan, P.-W.: Using the measured Particle Size Distribution to assess the wind-induced bias of catching-type raingauges., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12651, 2021.

EGU21-12963 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Using BOSS to learn microphysical process rate information from polarimetric radar observations

Karly Reimel, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Matthew Kumjian, Hugh Morrison, and Olivier Prat

Representing microphysics within weather and climate models is challenging because we lack fundamental understanding of microphysical processes and are limited by the computational inability to track each hydrometeor within a cloud system.  Microphysics schemes parameterize rates for specific processes such as drop evaporation, collision-coalescence, or collisional-breakup, but their inherent assumptions lead to uncertainty in model solutions which are often difficult to understand and quantify. Observations such as those from polarimetric radar provide insight into the microphysical evolution of clouds, but alone they are unable to provide quantitative information about the process rates that lead to this evolution. The Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical-Physical Scheme (BOSS) is a recently-developed bulk microphysics scheme designed to bridge the gap between observations and the processes acting on individual drops, such that process rate information can be directly learned from polarimetric radar observations. BOSS operates with no predefined drop size distribution (DSD) shape and makes few assumptions about the process rate formulations. Because there is no prescribed DSD shape, a new moment-based polarimetric forward operator is used to relate model prognostic moment output to polarimetric radar variables.  Process rates are written as generalized power functions of the prognostic DSD moments (related to bulk quantities such as mass concentrations), with flexibility to choose the number and order of the prognostic DSD moments and number of power terms in the process rate formulations.  The corresponding process rate parameters are constrained directly with observation using Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian inference framework, allowing BOSS to learn microphysical information directly from observations while simultaneously quantifying parametric uncertainty. The process rate formulations in BOSS can be made systematically more complex by adding more terms and/or more prognostic DSD moments, which allows us also to track down sources of structural uncertainty. In this study, we use a detailed bin microphysics scheme as “truth” to generate the constraining observations synthetically, which include profiles of polarimetric radar variables (ZH, ZDR, KDP) and vertical fluxes of prognostic DSD moments at the surface. An error analysis shows that BOSS produces process rate profiles similar to those of a bin scheme when only provided polarimetric rain profiles and surface prognostic moment fluxes. We also display initial results where BOSS is used to estimate microphysical process rate information from real polarimetric radar observations.  

How to cite: Reimel, K., van Lier-Walqui, M., Kumjian, M., Morrison, H., and Prat, O.: Using BOSS to learn microphysical process rate information from polarimetric radar observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12963, 2021.

EGU21-14150 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Drop Size Distribution Characteristics of Typhoon Haishen (2020) in Korea

Jeong A Kim and Dong-In Lee

Recently the frequency of autumn typhoons has increased on the Korean Peninsula and their damage has also increased. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) established a super-strong stage to raise awareness of such a powerful typhoon, Typhoon Haishen (2020). In usual the life cycle of the typhoon is divided into three stages: developing, mature, decaying. To analyze the impact of typhoon Haishen on the Korean Peninsula, this study focused on the landfall and decaying stage. To investigate the microphysical characteristics of the typhoon over time, the drop size distribution (DSD) at the azimuthal direction of the typhoon was studied. DSD variables were obtained by using PARSIVEL (PARticle SIze and VELocity) disdrometers at eleven observation sites from Geoje (34.88°N, 128.57°E) to Ulsan (35.58°N, 129.33°E) that located along the southern coast of Korea. As typhoon Haishen landed at the vicinity of Ulsan (35.3°N,129.3°E), the observation sites were included between the centre of the typhoon and the wind impact radius. Four days before typhoon Haishen landed, typhoon Maysak (2020) landed at the vicinity of Busan (35.4°N,128.9°E) and decayed. The intensity of typhoon Maysak was weakened and the form of convective cells became unclear after landing. Typhoon Haishen was also slightly weakened after landing, however, the form of convective cells and wind impact radius were continuously maintained.

How to cite: Kim, J. A. and Lee, D.-I.: Drop Size Distribution Characteristics of Typhoon Haishen (2020) in Korea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14150, 2021.

EGU21-8998 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Effects of turbulent fluctuations on phase partitioning in adiabatic mixed-phase cloud parcels

Daniel Gomes Albuquerque, Gustavo Coelho Abade, and Hanna Pawłowska

Several microphysical processes determine phase partitioning between ice and liquid water in a mixed-phase cloud. Here we investigate the collective growth of ice particles and liquid droplets affected by turbulent fluctuations in temperature and water vapor fields. All cloud particles, including inactivated nuclei (both CCN and IN), are described by Lagrangian super-particles. To account for local variability in the turbulent cloud environment we apply a Lagrangian microphysical scheme, where temperature and vapor mixing ratio are stochastic attributes attached to each super-particle. In addition, a simple linear relaxation scheme models turbulent mixing of the scalar fields probed by each super-particle. The limit of a locally homogeneous growth environment corresponds to an infinitely short turbulent mixing timescale. The impact of our Lagrangian microphysical scheme on phase partitioning is tested in adiabatic cloud parcel simulations. Results are confronted with idealized reference simulations that use bulk microphysics based on an assumed (temperature-dependent) phase partitioning function. Our study suggests that accounting for local variability in a turbulent cloud is important for reproducing steady-state mixed-phase conditions.

How to cite: Gomes Albuquerque, D., Coelho Abade, G., and Pawłowska, H.: Effects of turbulent fluctuations on phase partitioning in adiabatic mixed-phase cloud parcels, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8998, 2021.

EGU21-12786 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

An evaluation of rainfall regime changes in Italy over the last decades from literature

Enrica Caporali, Marco Lompi, Tommaso Pacetti, Valentina Chiarello, and Simone Fatichi

The growing attention to modifications in climate in several societal sectors has led to an increasing number of studies and research on the topic of climate change and especially on changes in precipitation. The analysis presented here draws a “state of the art” of changes in the Italian precipitation regime through the review of the most relevant published studies, in peer-review journals. The aim of the study is to summarize a large quantity of information derived from specific studies, in a unique analysis and to highlight the main patterns of rainfall changes in Italy in the last decades. The results of 54 selected studies are discussed through the introduction of a weight factor, which considers the importance of each study according to its geographical area, stations density, and time series length, and provides a quantitative evaluation of the review. To offer a coherent climatic classification of the review findings, Italy is subdivided in three main macro areas and studies are also subdivided in 3 groups according to the Time-Series Length: Short TSL, less than 65 years; Long TSL, until 100 years; and centennial TSL, over 100 years. The analysis is focused on the Total Precipitation (TP) and the number of Wet Days (WDs) indices at the annual and seasonal scale. Looking at the overall results of the review, most of the studies agree about a decrease at the annual scale of the Wet Days index throughout the Italian territory for short and centennial TSL. The reduction of precipitation is confirmed by the Total Precipitation index that at the annual scale reflects this tendency except for the Northern Italy. This feature also emerges from the seasonal analysis, with some heterogeneity in the results due to difference in the number of studies used in the various areas, suggesting that there is an underlying climatic pattern driving trends toward a reduction in wet days and rainfall over the Italian territory.

How to cite: Caporali, E., Lompi, M., Pacetti, T., Chiarello, V., and Fatichi, S.: An evaluation of rainfall regime changes in Italy over the last decades from literature, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12786, 2021.

EGU21-10550 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Guessing the missing half of a geophysical field with blunt extension of discrete Universal Multifractal cascades

Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer

Universal Multifractals have been widely used to characterize and simulate geophysical fields extremely variable over a wide range of scales such as rainfall. Despite strong limitations, notably its non-stationnarity, discrete cascades are often used to simulate such fields. Recently, blunt cascades have been introduced in 1D and 2D to cope with this issue while remaining in the simple framework of discrete cascades. It basically consists in geometrically interpolating over moving windows the multiplicative increments at each cascade steps.

 

In this paper, we first suggest an extension of this blunt cascades to space-time processes. Multifractal expected behaviour is theoretically established and numerically confirmed. In a second step, a methodology to address the common issue of guessing the missing half of a field is developed using this framework. It basically consists in reconstructing the increments of the known portion of the field, and then stochastically simulating the ones for the new portion, while ensuring the blunting the increments on the portion joining the two parts of the fields. The approach is tested with time series, maps and in a space-time framework. Initial tests with rainfall data are presented.

 

Authors acknowledge the RW-Turb project (supported by the French National Research Agency - ANR-19-CE05-0022), for partial financial support.

How to cite: Gires, A., Tchiguirinskaia, I., and Schertzer, D.: Guessing the missing half of a geophysical field with blunt extension of discrete Universal Multifractal cascades, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10550, 2021.

EGU21-16392 | vPICO presentations | HS7.1

Controls on the space-time variability of raindrop size distributions

Remko Uijlenhoet

It has been stated that "the study of drop-size distributions, with its roots in both land-surface processes [e.g. interception, erosion, infiltration and surface runoff] and atmospheric remote sensing [e.g. radar meteorology], provides an important element to an integrated program of hydrometeorological research" (Smith, 1993). Although raindrop size distributions have been studied from a scientific perspective since the early 20th century, it was not until the mid-1990s that researchers realized that all parameterizations for the drop size distribution published until then could be summarized in the form of a scaling law, which provided "a general phenomenological formulation for drop size distribution" (Sempere Torres et al., 1994). The main implication of the proposed expression is that the integral rainfall variables (such as rain rate and radar reflectivity) are related by power laws, in agreement with experimental evidence. The proposed formulation naturally leads to a general methodology for scaling all raindrop size data in a unique plot, which yields more robust fits of the drop size distribution. Here, we provide a statistical interpretation of the law’s scaling exponents in terms of different modes of control on the space-time variability of drop size distributions, namely size-control vs. number-control, inspired by the work of Smith and De Veaux (1994). Also, an attempt will be made toward interpreting the values of the scaling exponents and the shape of the scaled drop size distribution in terms of the underlying (micro)physical processes.

REFERENCES

Smith, J. A., 1993: Precipitation. In Maidment, D. R., editor, Handbook of Hydrology, pages 3.1–3.47. McGraw-Hill, New York.

Sempere Torres, D., J.M. Porrà, and J.-D. Creutin, 1994: A general formulation for raindrop size distribution. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 1494–1502.

Smith, J.A. and R.D. De Veaux, 1994: A stochastic model relating rainfall intensity to raindrop processes. Water Resour. Res., 30, 651–664.

How to cite: Uijlenhoet, R.: Controls on the space-time variability of raindrop size distributions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16392, 2021.

HS7.2 – Precipitation modelling: uncertainty, variability, assimilation, ensemble simulation and downscaling

EGU21-9207 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Evaluation of climate model simulations in representing the precipitation non-stationarity by considering observational uncertainties

Yongjing Wan, Jie Chen, Ping Xie, Chong-Yu Xu, and Daiyuan Li

EGU21-1109 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Orographic effect on extreme precipitation statistics peaks at hourly times scales

Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Marco Borga, and Efrat Morin

Preparedness to natural hazards in mountainous areas strongly relies on the knowledge of extreme rainfall probability. The presence of mountains influences the motion of air masses, thereby modifying the storms characteristics. Here, we use a novel statistical approach to quantify the orographic impact on the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall of short duration (10-min to 6-hour). We find that mountains tend to decrease the mean annual maximum intensities at sub-hourly scales, thereby confirming the previously reported “reversed orographic effect”, and tend to decrease the tail heaviness, thereby decreasing the extremely high intensities such as the events occurring on average once in 100 years. The second effect is however non-monotonic, in that it increases between 10 minute and 1 hour and diminishes between 1 and 6 hours. Sub-hourly extremes could thus be higher than what can be estimated from hourly data alone, implying that the scaling assumptions typically adopted for risk assessment may systematically underestimate the risk of short-duration extremes

How to cite: Marra, F., Armon, M., Borga, M., and Morin, E.: Orographic effect on extreme precipitation statistics peaks at hourly times scales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1109, 2021.

EGU21-10830 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

How important is accounting for serial correlation and field significance in trend detection of extreme rainfall occurrences? 

Stefano Farris, Roberto Deidda, Francesco Viola, and Giuseppe Mascaro

A number of studies have shown that the ability of statistical tests to detect trends in hydrologic extremes is negatively affected by (i) the presence of autocorrelation in the time series, and (ii) field significance. Here, we investigate these two issues and evaluate the power of several trend tests using time series of frequencies (or counts) of precipitation extremes from long-term (100 years) precipitation records of 1087 gauges of the Global Historical Climate Network database. For this aim, we design several Monte Carlo experiments based on simulations of random count time series with different levels of autocorrelation and trend. We find the following. (1) The observed records are consistent with the hypothesis of autocorrelation induced by the presence of trends, indicating that the existence of serial correlation does not significantly affect trend detection. (2) Tests based on the linear and Poisson regressions are more powerful that nonparametric tests, such as Mann Kendall. (3) Accounting for field significance improves the interpretation of the results by limiting the rejection of the false null hypothesis. We then use these results to investigate the presence of trends in the observed records. We find that, depending on the quantiles used to define the frequency of precipitation extremes, 34-47% of the selected gages exhibit a statistically significant trend, of which 70-80% are positive and located mainly in United States and Northern Europe. The significant negative trends are mostly located in Southern Australia.

How to cite: Farris, S., Deidda, R., Viola, F., and Mascaro, G.: How important is accounting for serial correlation and field significance in trend detection of extreme rainfall occurrences? , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10830, 2021.

Availability of precipitation data at fine spatial resolution is highly desirable for hydroclimatic studies. Rain gauges are often considered as the primary source of precipitation data due to its reliability. However, due to either physical, climatic or economic constraints, setting up networks of rain gauges becomes unfeasible in many isolated terrains such as the Himalayan region. In the absence of gauge data, other alternate sources of weather information such as Satellite based Precipitation Products (SPPs) and Reanalysis precipitation Datasets (RPDs) are generally used. In this study, we aim to utilise 18 years of precipitation data (2001-2018) derived from the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) at 10km spatial resolution as input to a Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS) based statistical model to obtain corresponding data for the year 2019 at 10km over the North-west Himalayan region. MPS is capable of generating fine scale data using the available coarse scale hindcast data by reproducing spatially connected spatial patterns. It requires data to be split into two parts. First part is called the training image and it requires both coarse and fine scale data. Second part is called the conditioning data which requires data only at coarse scale for the year 2019. In the attempt of using MPS as the tool for this study, the spatial field of Original IMERG data at 10 km (O_IMERG) is smoothen (S_IMERG) in order to transform the data features to a coarse scale reference data. The reference data used for this purpose is the High Asia Refined analysis (HAR) available at 30km spatial resolution over the South-Central Asia and Tibetan Plateau region. The variograms of both O_IMERG and S_IMERG are used to evaluate error frequency between the two data at specific distances followed by bias correction of S_IMERG. The bias corrected S_IMERG (BCS_IMERG) acts as the conditioning data for the MPS model. Training Image is composed of both BCS_IMERG and O_IMERG. Both the training image (year 2001-2018) and the conditioning data (2019) are provided to the MPS model. In addition to the variable of precipitation, the model also employs static parameters such as locational and topographical variables to help in identification of true patterns between training image and conditioning data. The study is significant in its ability to generate future precipitation information by utilising the available hindcast data observation data (10 km spatial resolution) by overcoming the spatial heterogeneity involved with observation data.

How to cite: Singhal, A. and Jha, S.: A Statistical Approach to generate ensembles of observation data of precipitation using hindcast data over the Northwest Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6991, 2021.

EGU21-13532 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Evaluation of the spatial distribution of a stochastically reconstructed ensemble of precipitation fields using RMWSPy

Barbara Haese, Nico Blettner, Sebastian Hörning, Marco Linder, Christian Chwala, and Harald Kunstmann

Precipitation is one of the most essential variables within the hydrological system, and accordingly one of the main drivers for terrestrial hydrological processes. The quality of many hydrological applications such as climate prediction, water resource management, and flood forecasting, depends on the correct reproduction of its spatiotemporal distribution. Not only are there a variety of methods for reconstructing precipitation maps, but the reconstruction can also be based on different observation types or its combinations. In our approach we use rain gauge observations and path-averaged rain rates, derived from Commercial Microwave Link (CML) attenuations, as observations. Using these two observation types we apply Random Mixing Whittaker-Shannon (RMWSPy) to stochastically simulate precipitation fields. 

The algorithm generates precipitation fields as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields, where the spatial dependence structure is described by copulas. The weights of the linear combination are optimized in such a way that the precipitation observations themselves as well as their spatial structure are reproduced. Using RMWSPy allows to simulate a precipitation field ensemble of any size, where each ensemble member is in concordance with the underlying observations. 

Here, we apply RMWSPy to the whole of Germany and various catchments of different sizes, covering cases with different amount of available observations and different orographic complexity. The resulting ensembles of precipitation fields are evaluated regarding the quality of the reproduced spatial distribution of the precipitation and its pattern. We show that the reconstructed precipitation fields reproduce the observed spatiotemporal distribution in a quality that is comparable to the gauge-adjusted radar product RADOLAN-RW provided by the German Weather Service (DWD).

How to cite: Haese, B., Blettner, N., Hörning, S., Linder, M., Chwala, C., and Kunstmann, H.: Evaluation of the spatial distribution of a stochastically reconstructed ensemble of precipitation fields using RMWSPy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13532, 2021.

EGU21-12500 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Conditional Simulation of Precipitation Time Series Using Phase Annealing 

Masoud Mehrvand, András Bárdossy, and Faizan Anwar

Precipitation is one of the main inputs for hydrological models. For design purposes observed precipitation at high temporal resolution is often not available. In this case weather generators can be used to simulate realistic precipitation. Synthetic precipitation time series are often produced directly from observed time series using the stochastic methods which are able to reproduce the properties of the observed time series. The main difference and advantage of this research is to generate time series by focusing on the specific properties of the observed time series and trying to obtain these properties indirectly by conducting through investigation on the phases and power spectra and their individual effects using the phase annealing method.

Phase annealing is mainly based on annealing the phases of precipitation time series which are obtained from Fourier transform in order to meet the desired properties. These are obtained from observed time series and defined in the objective function. The outcome is synthetic time series with altered phases while the power spectrum is kept intact yielding new precipitation time series with properties matching those of the observed time series.

How to cite: Mehrvand, M., Bárdossy, A., and Anwar, F.: Conditional Simulation of Precipitation Time Series Using Phase Annealing , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12500, 2021.

EGU21-4622 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Reparametrizing rainfall generators with convective-permitting models to generate high-resolution rainfall for climate impact studies

Yuting Chen, Athanasios Paschalis, Nadav Peleg, and Christian Onof

A high-resolution rainfall data at a km and sub-hourly scales provides a powerful tool for hydrological risk assessment in the current and the future climate. Global circulation models or regional circulation models generally provide projections at much coarser space-time resolutions of 10-100 kilometres and daily to monthly. In the recent decade, convection-permitting models (CPM) have been developed and enable the projection at a kilometre and sub-hourly scales. CPMs, due to their very high computational demand, are still limited to a small number of ensemble simulations. This limits their skill in hydrology, where quantification of extremes and their variability is essential for risk assessment and design. In this project, we propose the combined use of CPMs with stochastic rainfall generators to simulate ensemble of climate change at hydrologically relevant scales.

To achieve this, we used the STREAP space-time stochastic rainfall generator, a 1 km resolution composite rain radar data and a 2.2km CPM dataset from the UK Met Office. For the mid-land region of the UK, we parameterised STREAP for the present climate using rainfall observations. CPM simulations were used to derive the change of STREAP parameters with a changing climate. These parameters describe the change in weather patterns, the rainfall intensification, and changes in the structure of rainfall. Our results show that by combining a physics-based model and a stochastic weather generator we can simulate robust ensemble of rainfall at a minimal computational cost while preserving all physical attributes from climate change projections.

How to cite: Chen, Y., Paschalis, A., Peleg, N., and Onof, C.: Reparametrizing rainfall generators with convective-permitting models to generate high-resolution rainfall for climate impact studies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4622, 2021.

EGU21-8843 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Precipitation frequency in MED and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convective permitting resolution: what explains the differences?

Minh Ha-Truong, Sophie Bastin, Philippe Drobinski, Lluís Fita, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Jan Polcher, and Olivier Bock and the model providers from FPSCONV community

Dynamical models are a major tool for studying climate variability and its evolution. But despite the refinements in resolution and efforts to revise the dynamical and physical processes, rainfall extremes are still poorly represented, even at regional scales. Recent studies using convection-permitting simulations have demonstrated the improvement in representing heavy rainfall. In this study, we investigate the impacts of different model resolutions and convection representations (parameterized vs. explicit) in simulating precipitation frequency over Europe and the Mediterranean and try to explain the difference between model ensembles by focusing on triggering processes. For this purpose, we used a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED and EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on convection (FPSCONV). At 0.0275°, deep convection is explicitly represented while at 0.44° and 0.11°, it is parameterized with different schemes. In addition, to partially separate the impact of the higher resolution and convective schemes, we remapped the outputs of resolution 0.0275° to the 0.11° grid. To explain the difference in simulating precipitation frequency, a multi-variate approach is applied, in which precipitation is considered in the statistical relationship with tropospheric temperature and humidity - derived from colocated observations at the supersite SIRTA near Paris and some GPS stations. The results show that precipitation frequency in the higher resolution simulations is reduced because of a lower probability to exceed the critical value of integrated water vapor (IWVcv) over which precipitation picks up for different temperature bins. At low temperature, the probability decreases mostly due to a different humidity distribution in high resolution simulations, but for the temperature bins where the dominant precipitation type changes to convective precipitation, the decrease of probability to exceed IWVcv is mainly explained by a higher value of IWVcv. In these bins, the differences between 0.0275° and 0.44°, 0.11° resolutions become larger over southern Europe and the Mediterranean. This is not clear over mountain areas, where processes of triggering are more linked to orography than convection. Our results also suggest a decrease of model spread at higher temperature, and a stronger impact of switching off convective schemes than increasing resolution.

How to cite: Ha-Truong, M., Bastin, S., Drobinski, P., Fita, L., Chiriaco, M., Polcher, J., and Bock, O. and the model providers from FPSCONV community: Precipitation frequency in MED and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convective permitting resolution: what explains the differences?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8843, 2021.

EGU21-9241 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Evaluation of a WRF model in forecasting extreme rainfall in the urban data-scarce coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt

Adele Young, Biswa Bhattacharya, Emma Daniels, and Chris Zevenbergen

High-resolution precipitation models are essential to forecast urban pluvial floods. Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPs) are considered too coarse to accurately forecast flooding at the city scale. High-resolution radar nowcasting can be either unavailable or insufficient to forecast at the required lead-times.  Downscaling models are used to increase the resolution and extend forecast by several days when initialised with global NWPs. However, resolving weather processes at smaller spatial scales and sub-daily temporal resolutions has its challenges and does not necessarily result in more accurate forecast but instead only increase the computational requirements. Additionally, in ungauged regions, forecast verification is a challenge as in-situ measurements and radar estimates remain scarce or non-existent. This research evaluates the ability of a dynamically downscaled WRF model to capture the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall suitable for an urban drainage flood forecast model and evaluated against IMERG Global Precipitation Model (GPM) Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs).
 A WRF model was set-up with one-way nesting, three nested domains at horizontal grid resolutions 10km, 3.33km and 1km, a 1hourly temporal output, a spin-up time of 12 hours and evaluated at different lead times up to 48 hrs. The analysis was performed for three (3)  winter frontal systems during the period 2015-2019 in the highly urbanised coastal Mediterranean city of Alexandria in Egypt which experiences floods from extreme precipitation. The Global Forecast System (GFS), and European Centre for Medium Range (ECMWF) forecast were used as initial and lateral boundary conditions. 
Initial results indicate the WRF models could capture extreme rainfall for all events. There is some agreement with the IMERG data and the model correctly forecasted a decrease in rainfall as the systems transition from coastal to inland areas. In general, GFS and ECMWF initialised WRF models overestimated rainfall estimates compared to IMERG data. Differences in GFS and ECMWF initialised models (multi-model approach) highlight the sensitivity of models to initial and boundary conditions and emphasises the need for post-processing and data assimilation when possible to generate accurate small-scale features. A study such as this provides knowledge for understanding, future applications and limitations of using Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) in urban drainage models. Additionally, the potential use of IMERG GPM to verify spatial and temporal variability of forecast in ungauged and data-scarce regions. Future analysis will evaluate the skill of ensembles precipitation systems in characterising forecast uncertainty in such applications. 

How to cite: Young, A., Bhattacharya, B., Daniels, E., and Zevenbergen, C.: Evaluation of a WRF model in forecasting extreme rainfall in the urban data-scarce coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9241, 2021.

EGU21-12399 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Exploring the uncertainty of Weather Generators’ extreme estimates associated with the length of the input data series

Carles Beneyto, José Ángel Aranda, and Félix Francés

Stochastic Weather Generators (WG) have been extensively used in recent years for hydrologic modeling, among others. Compared to traditional approaches, the main advantage of using WGs is that they can produce synthetic continuous time series of weather data of unlimited length preserving their spatiotemporal distribution. Synthetic simulations are based on the statistical characteristics of the observed weather, thus, relying upon the length and spatial distribution of the input data series. In most cases, and especially in arid/semiarid regions, these are scarce, which makes it difficult for WGs to obtain reliable quantile estimates, particularly those associated with low-frequency events. The present study aims to explore the importance of the input weather data length in the performance of WGs, focusing on the adequate estimation of the higher quantiles, and quantifying their uncertainty.

An experimental case study consisting of nine rain gauges from the Spain02-v5 network in a 0.11º resolution covering an approximate area of 180 km2 was implemented. The WG used for the experiment was GWEX, which includes a three-parameter (σ, κ, and ξ) cumulative distribution function (E-GPD) to model de precipitation amounts, being the shape parameter ξ the one directly governing the upper tail of the distribution function. A fictitious climate scenario of 15,000 was simulated fixing the ξ value to 0.11.  From this scenario, 50 realizations of 5,000 years with a different sample length (i.e. 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 200, 300 years) were simulated for four different particular cases: (1) leaving the ξ value as default (i.e. 0.05); (2) estimating the ξ value from the observations; (3) calibrating the ξ value with the T = 100 years quantile from the 15,000 years; and (4) fixing the ξ value to the fictitious scenario value. Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and coefficient of variation (CV) were calculated for each set of realizations and compared with the obtained from the fictitious climate scenario.

Preliminary results showed a clear reduction in the value of both the CV and the RRMSE with the increase of the sample length for the four particular cases, being this reduction more evident for the higher order quantiles and as we move from particular case (1) to (4). Furthermore, it was observed that there was not any significant improvement in the higher quantile estimates between the 200-yrs and the 300-yrs samples, concluding that there is a sample length threshold from which the estimates do not improve. Finally, even observing a clear improvement in all estimates when increasing the sample length, a systematic underestimation of the higher quantiles in all cases was still observed, which remarks the importance of seeking extra sources of information (e.g. regional max. Pd. studies) for a better parameterization of the WG, especially for arid/semiarid climates.

How to cite: Beneyto, C., Aranda, J. Á., and Francés, F.: Exploring the uncertainty of Weather Generators’ extreme estimates associated with the length of the input data series, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12399, 2021.

EGU21-666 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

A comparison of moderate and extreme ERA-5 daily precipitation with two observational data sets

Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, and Philippe Naveau

Both mean and extreme precipitation are highly relevant and a probability distribution that models the entire precipitation distribution therefore provides important information. Gamma distributions are often used to model low and moderate precipitation amounts and extreme value theory allows to model the upper tail of the distribution. We apply the Extended Generalized Pareto Distribution (EGPD). Thanks to a transition function, this method overcomes the problem of finding a threshold between upper and lower tails. The transition cumulative distribution function of the EGPD is constrained on the upper tail and lower tail to enable a GPD behavior for both small and large extremes.

EGPD is used here to characterize ERA-5 precipitation. ERA-5 is a new ECMWF climate re-analysis dataset that provides a numerical description of the recent climate by combining a numerical weather model with observations. The data set is global with a spatial resolution of 0.25° and currently covers the period from 1979 to present. ERA-5 precipitation is computed from model forecasts and therefore needs validation against observational datasets. ERA-5 daily precipitation is compared to EOBS precipitation, a gridded dataset spatially interpolated from observations over Europe, and to CMORPH precipitation, a global satellite-based dataset. Simultaneous occurrence of extreme events is assessed with a hit rate. An intensity comparison is conducted with quantiles confidence intervals and a Kullback Leibler divergence test, both derived from the EGPD.

Overall, good agreements but also strong mismatches between ERA-5 and the observational datasets can be found, depending on the feature of interest in precipitation data. This work highlights both. For example, extreme event occurrences between ERA5 and the observational datasets appear to agree. The overlap between 95% confidence intervals on quantiles depends on the season and the probability of occurrence. Over Europe, the best agreement results are generally reached in regions with high station density in EOBS. The global intensity comparison between ERA5 and CMORPH shows a good agreement for moderate quantiles, except for some mountainous regions, but presents a large signal of disagreement in the tropics for large quantiles.

How to cite: Rivoire, P., Martius, O., and Naveau, P.: A comparison of moderate and extreme ERA-5 daily precipitation with two observational data sets, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-666, 2021.

EGU21-16396 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

A multi-resolution analysis of historical and future precipitation variability across the western United States 

Nels Bjarke, Ben Livneh, Joseph Barsugli, Xiao Wei Quan, and Martin Hoerling

Evaluating the future of surface water availability in the western United States requires a robust analysis of the projected trends in precipitation variability within the new generation of global climate model (GCM) simulations. To understand the reliability of future projections, we first construct a historical baseline (1950-2014) of the precipitation climatology and  contribution of heavy precipitation events to the total annual precipitation from an ensemble of in-situ (Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)) and gridded precipitation products (Abatzoglou, 2013; Livneh et al., 2015; Newman et al., 2015). This historical baseline is used to evaluate the representation of precipitation variability during the historical period of GCM simulations from the CMIP6 HighResMIP and ScenarioMIP ensembles as well as the multi-resolution, factual-counterfactual ensemble of CAM5 simulations. We frame our analysis in the context of water resources by using a collection of large basins across the western US to demonstrate that the role of GCM resolution in the representation of precipitation variability is highly dependent on regional differences in topographical controls and dominant climatological drivers of precipitation. In most regions, we find that the highest-resolution GCM simulations (25-50 km) portray realistic occurrences of heavy precipitation events when compared to gridded historical precipitation at the same spatial resolution, whereas coarser GCM simulations (100-200 km) tend to distribute precipitation more evenly throughout the year than expected. When compared to the historical period (1950-2014), future projections (2014-2050) from both HighResMIP and ScenarioMIP ensembles produce more variable precipitation with a higher fraction of the annual precipitation falling in heavy precipitation events.  Furthermore, we explore methods for constraining uncertainty in the projection of future precipitation variability across the Western US using a statistical assessment of the historical GCM simulations compared to the historical baseline.

References

Abatzoglou, J. T. (2013). Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling. International Journal of Climatology, 33(1), 121–131. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413

Livneh, B., Bohn, T. J., Pierce, D. W., Munoz-Arriola, F., Nijssen, B., Vose, R., Cayan, D. R., & Brekke, L. (2015). A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013. Scientific Data, 2(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42

Newman, A. J., Clark, M. P., Sampson, K., Wood, A., Hay, L. E., Bock, A., Viger, R. J., Blodgett, D., Brekke, L., Arnold, J. R., Hopson, T., & Duan, Q. (2015). Development of a large-sample watershed-scale hydrometeorological data set for the contiguous USA: Data set characteristics and assessment of regional variability in hydrologic model performance. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(1), 209–223. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-209-2015

How to cite: Bjarke, N., Livneh, B., Barsugli, J., Quan, X. W., and Hoerling, M.: A multi-resolution analysis of historical and future precipitation variability across the western United States , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16396, 2021.

EGU21-8996 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Analysis of remote sensing and in situ datasets to estimate spatial precipitation in high mountain areas: case study Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Edwin Loarte, Katy Medina, Eduardo Villavicencio, Hairo León, Waldo Lavado, Antoine Rabatel, Gerardo Jacome, Johannes Hunink, and Ernesto Lopez-Baeza

The Santa River basin has a climatology that is characterized by strong spatial gradients in precipitation. The influence of topography becomes increasingly important when smaller time scales are considered and convective and orographic processes have a more profound influence. This makes its estimation complex and of relevance for research on precipitation estimation in high mountain environments.

This study focused on estimating precipitation for the Santa basin located north of the capital of Peru, assessing spatial patterns and temporal variation. Precipitation products were used at a daily temporal resolution obtained from remote sensing datasets, including CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CCS, GPM and PISCO, altitude and vegetation products as NDVI-BOKU and GDEM. Also ground-based precipitation data from weather stations were collected from 35 meteorological stations (2012 -2019).

The in situ precipitation data was reviewed, cleaned and quality-checked for processing. The following operations were applied to the raster data: Gaussian filter, resampling at 1km, temporal homogenization (monthly) by accumulating the precipitation products until obtaining the monthly values, and averaging. Afterwards, a linear regression model was built based in which various of the remote sensing datasets served as predictions. The model was validated using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination.

The developed regression model provides a better estimate of the precipitation than the individual precipitation dataset. Overall, the resulting model performs relatively low in the dry season (May-September) but improves considerably in the wet season (October-April), with correlations that go up to 0.95. The outcomes of this research can be used to improve the estimation of precipitation patterns in high mountain regions with complex orography.

How to cite: Loarte, E., Medina, K., Villavicencio, E., León, H., Lavado, W., Rabatel, A., Jacome, G., Hunink, J., and Lopez-Baeza, E.: Analysis of remote sensing and in situ datasets to estimate spatial precipitation in high mountain areas: case study Cordillera Blanca, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8996, 2021.

It is well known that the performance of radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates greatly relies on the physical model of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) and the relation between the physical model and radar parameters. However, incorporating changing precipitation microphysics to dynamically adjust the radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) relations can be challenging for real-time applications. In this study, two adaptive radar rainfall approaches are developed based on the radar-gauge feedback mechanism using 16 S-band Doppler weather radars and 4579 surface rain gauges deployed over the Eastern JiangHuai River Basin (EJRB) in China. Although the Z–R relations in both approaches are dynamically adjusted within a single precipitation system, one is using a single global optimal (SGO) Z–R relation, whereas the other is using different Z–R relations for different storm cells identified by a storm cell identification and tracking (SCIT) algorithm. Four precipitation events featured by different rainfall microphysical characteristics are investigated to demonstrate the performances of these two rainfall mapping methodologies. In addition, the short-term vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) clusters are extensively analyzed to resolve the storm-scale characteristics of different storm cells. The verification results based on independent gauge observations show that both rainfall estimation approaches with dynamic Z–R relations perform much better than fixed Z–R relations. The adaptive approach incorporating the SCIT algorithm and real-time gauge measurements performs best since it can better capture the spatial variability and temporal evolution of precipitation.

How to cite: Gou, Y. and Chen, H.: Dynamic rainfall mapping using multi-radar multi-gauge observations in changing synoptic environments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7298, 2021.

EGU21-11062 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

A downscaling framework for precipitation nowcasting by merging radar retrievals at different scales and resolutions

Roberto Deidda, Stefano Farris, Maria Grazia Badas, Marino Marrocu, Luca Massidda, Alessandro Seoni, Salvatore Urru, and Francesco Viola

Convective rainfall events represent one of the most critical issues in urban areas, where numerical weather prediction models are affected by a large uncertainty related to the short temporal and spatial scales involved, thus making early warning systems ineffective. Conversely, radar-based nowcasting models may be a useful tool to guarantee short-term forecasts, through the extrapolation of most recent properties in observed precipitation fields, for lead times ranging from minutes to few hours.

In this study we develop a procedure for merging relevant information from two radar products with different resolutions and scales: (i) high-resolution observations retrieved by an X-band weather radar in a small domain (the metropolitan area of Cagliari, located in Sardinia, Italy), and (ii) the mosaic data provided by the Italian Civil Protection national radar network (the whole region of Sardinia). Specifically, we here adapt some STEPS procedures to merge the large-scale advection from the latter radar network, and the small-scale statistical properties for the former X-band weather radar. We thus combine the corresponding forecasts preserving the higher resolution scale. In details, for each time step we (i) evaluate the power spectra of the two forecasts (ii) merge the two spectra taking the power of the large (small) frequencies from the high (low) resolution data spectrum and (iii) achieve optimal downscaling by reconstructing the high-resolution nowcast from the blend of the two spectra.

How to cite: Deidda, R., Farris, S., Badas, M. G., Marrocu, M., Massidda, L., Seoni, A., Urru, S., and Viola, F.: A downscaling framework for precipitation nowcasting by merging radar retrievals at different scales and resolutions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11062, 2021.

EGU21-12415 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Rainfall estimates from opportunistic sensors in Germany across spatio-temporal scales – Geostatistical interpolation framework

Micha Eisele, Maximilian Graf, Abbas El Hachem, Jochen Seidel, Christian Chwala, Harald Kunstmann, and András Bárdossy

Precipitation - highly variable in space and time - is the most important input for many hydrological models. As these models become more and more detailed in space and time, high-resolution input data are required. Especially for modeling and prediction in fast reacting catchments, such as urban catchment areas, a higher space-time resolution is needed than the current ground measurement networks operated by national weather services usually provide. With the increasing number and availability of opportunistic sensors such as commercial microwave links (CMLs) and personal weather stations (PWS) in recent years, new opportunities for measuring meteorological data are emerging.

We developed a geostatistical interpolation framework which allows a combination of different opportunistic sensors and their specific features and geometric properties, e.g. point and line information. In this framework, a combined kriging approach is introduced, taking into account not only the point information of a reliable primary network, e.g., from national weather services, but also the higher uncertainty of the PWS- and CML-based precipitation. The path-averaged information of the CMLs is included through a block kriging-type approach.

The methodology was applied for two 7-months periods in Germany using an hourly temporal and a 1x1 km spatial resolution. By incorporating CMLs and PWS, the Pearson correlation could be increased from 0.56 to 0.73 compared to using only primary network for interpolation. The resulting precipitation maps also provided good agreement compared to gauge adjusted radar products.

How to cite: Eisele, M., Graf, M., El Hachem, A., Seidel, J., Chwala, C., Kunstmann, H., and Bárdossy, A.: Rainfall estimates from opportunistic sensors in Germany across spatio-temporal scales – Geostatistical interpolation framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12415, 2021.

EGU21-8409 | vPICO presentations | HS7.2

Variability in rainfall information derived from collocated microwave links

Anna Špačková, Vojtěch Bareš, and Martin Fencl

In the field of hydrology, there is a significant demand for high spatial-temporal resolution of rainfall information that can be met by commercial microwave links (CMLs). CMLs are commonly used as a backhaul of telecommunications network with favourable spatial coverage especially in urbanized areas. CMLs are point-to-point radio connections operating at frequencies where attenuation of electromagnetic waves can be related to the rainfall intensity.

The ability of CMLs to assess rainfall intensity is determined by hardware parameters and path lengths of CMLs. The CML operates at various frequencies with horizontal or vertical polarization, moreover, link paths have lengths ranging from hundreds of meters up to kilometres. The characteristics of the rainfall needs to be reflected as they have impact on the errors (de Vos et al., 2019). Even collocated CMLs can detect considerably dissimilar rainfall information. To increase effectivity of rainfall information retrieval it is crucial to understand uncertainties arising from diversity of CML characteristics.

This study evaluates collocated CMLs that are assumed to be affected by the same weather condition. Having identical CML characteristics (as well as the propagations of the signals), it is expected to observe the same response patterns in the attenuated signals. Any disagreement could be caused by random error, sensitivity to the rainfall intensities, and/or hardware reaction to the condition (e.g. sensitivity of the antenna radome to the rainfall splash). Therefore, the role of arrangement of the direction of rainfall field advection and position of the collocated link paths is considered. The magnitude of disagreement between different groups of collocated links could be specified based on their characteristics. Oppositely, for collocated links under the same conditions but with different characteristics, the attributes of the individual CMLs are suspected for the disagreement.

 

References

de Vos, L. W., Overeem, A., Leijnse, H., and Uijlenhoet, R. (2019). Rainfall Estimation Accuracy of a Nationwide Instantaneously Sampling Commercial Microwave Link Network: Error Dependency on Known Characteristics. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 36, 7, 1267-1283. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-18-0197.1

 

This study was supported by the project SpraiLINK 20-14151J of the Czech Science Foundation.

How to cite: Špačková, A., Bareš, V., and Fencl, M.: Variability in rainfall information derived from collocated microwave links, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8409, 2021.

HS7.3 – Water, climate, food and health

Air pollution has always been one of the serious issues around the world, not only related to the large-scale climate environment, but also related to local-scale vehicles-caused air pollutants in the city. Generally, diesel-burning vehicles emit NOX, SO2, CO; gasoline burning vehicles emit CO, CO2, NOX respectively. The common air pollutants CO and NOX are widely regarded as the primary traffic-caused air pollutants. Therefore in this study, we take vehicle detector data including car speed, car volume, lane occupy as well as meteorological data and the air pollutants concentration in consider. Firstly, we use the Stepwise Regression Model(SRM) to select the significant factors for the target air pollutants and predict them with multivariate linear regression. Secondly, we also combine Long Short-Terms Memory (LSTM) Model to simulate the highly nonlinear and unstationary complex chemical interaction between air pollutants. In this study we got high model accuracy performance in primary pollutants prediction (CO,NOX) by including the vehicle detector data with both Multivariate linear regression Model and LSTM model which conclude that the vehicle detector data can significantly improve the quality of model prediction. This process select the statistically significant factors of the pollutants, and also establishes a neural network model including traffic, meteorological factors and air quality which contribute to the air pollutants risk management of government agency.

Keywords: traffic pollutants, air quality, stepwise regression, LSTM model

How to cite: Lin, Y.-T. and Lin, Y.-C.: The impact analysis of traffic and meteorological factors on air pollution risk in Taiwan, Taipei City, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7446, 2021.

Water scarcity, which is a critical issue worldwide, is exacerbated by geomorphic characteristics and highly uneven spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall in Taiwan. The annual water availability per capita in Taiwan is less than one-fifth of the world average despite the high annual rainfall. Hence, stable water supply and efficient water resources management are challenging tasks for related authorities, and a decision support tool is required for the optimal decision. This study proposes a risk assessment framework for water shortage based upon a dynamic Bayesian network. Standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and long-term weather forecasts are included in the framework. Taoyuan, a northern city in Taiwan with rapid growth of population and industries, is particularly vulnerable to water shortage and thereby chosen as our study site.

How to cite: Lee, S.-Y., Tsai, M., and Yu, H.-L.: Integrating drought indices and long-term weather forecasts with a dynamic Bayesian network for assessing water shortage risk – a case study in Taoyuan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5753, 2021.

EGU21-10522 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

An analysis of urban heat island impact toward increasing of afternoon thunderstorm frequency in Taipei, Taiwan

Siti Talitha Rachma and Yuan-Chien Lin

Each year, average of Earth’s temperature rises and the urbanized cities, are warming at a significant rate than the surrounding rural areas. This phenomenon is called Urban Heat Island (UHI). UHI is a consequence of human activities in urban area and it has possibilities to impact weather and climate on regional or global scale. Precipitation is one of the basic hydro-meteorological phenomena that could be affected by UHI trend with thunderstorm as a part of precipitation. As the UHI level rises from year to year, the pattern of precipitation could change. However, this issue is still underdeveloped, thus, this work tries to comprehensively understand the hydrological response to UHI.

 

This research selects Taipei city as the study area and explores the connection between UHI and precipitation pattern’s change. The data used here are hourly temperature and precipitation data collected from 21 Taipei weather stations collected from Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Taiwan. In order to reveal specific details and trend of non-linear relation from both time domain and frequency, Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) is adopted in this study. The HHT results are compared between each station. Later, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) also being used to extract main spatial pattern of precipitation in Taipei city.

 

The results show that the urbanization in Taipei city contribute to increasing trend of 0.5 – 1 oC in daily UHI and also increase of 27% in the afternoon thunderstorm frequency for this past 20 years. The increase of thunderstorm would result into a bigger rain water flow to the river and a fewer time for it to percolate to the ground. If there are more thunderstorms in the future, it is possible the phenomenon could lead to the lack of groundwater discharge and depletion of groundwater reserve. This result could be utilized in the future to understand more about UHI mitigation and thunderstorm in Taipei.

 

Keywords: urban heat island, thunderstorm, Hilbert-Huang Transform, empirical orthogonal function

How to cite: Rachma, S. T. and Lin, Y.-C.: An analysis of urban heat island impact toward increasing of afternoon thunderstorm frequency in Taipei, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10522, 2021.

EGU21-15485 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Unprecedented climate extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and implications for maize production

Catherine Bradshaw, Edward Pope, Gillian Kay, Jemma Davie, Andrew Cottrell, James Bacon, Stewart Jennings, Andrew Challinor, Sarah Chapman, Cathryn Birch, and Susannah Sallu

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most food-insecure regions in the world, and is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme climate events and climate change.  To gain a better understanding of the present-day likelihood of extreme seasonal temperature and rainfall events, and their joint occurrence, we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles (UNSEEN) approach  to a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations in three countries of Sub-Saharan Africa: Tanzania, Zambia and South Africa. We assess the annual likelihood of unprecedented seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes during the maize growing season (October-April), as key variables for maize productivity , and investigate the large-scale dynamics of the climate system that govern their occurrence. We estimate that there is a 3-4% chance per year of exceeding the present-day seasonal temperature records in the maize growing regions of these countries, and a 1-3.5% chance per year of exceeding the present-day seasonal precipitation records.  Conversely, whilst we find a 2% and 5% chance per year of subceeding the present-day seasonal precipitation records in Zambia and Tanzania respectively, we find a very low chance (0-1% per year) of subceeding the present-day seasonal precipitation records in South Africa.  We also use the large ensemble to investigate the large-scale dynamics of the climate extremes, finding that high temperature extremes tend to be associated with El Niño and positive IOD/SIOD events and low temperature extremes with La Niña and negative IOD/SIOD events. The drivers of precipitation extremes, however, differ between the countries. In South Africa, high (low) precipitation extremes are associated with La Niña (El Niño) events but otherwise the influence on extremes of ENSO, and even more so the IOD/SIOD, is weak or not seen in the ensemble, which invites further investigation. To explore implications for growing maize in these regions, we convert our unprecedented seasonal temperature estimates to daily maximum temperatures and our seasonal precipitation estimates to monthly precipitation indices and compare to climatic thresholds for maize. Combined with projected changes to crop suitability in much of sub-Saharan Africa, our analysis suggests the need for significant adaptation strategies that build food system resilience in the near and longer term.

How to cite: Bradshaw, C., Pope, E., Kay, G., Davie, J., Cottrell, A., Bacon, J., Jennings, S., Challinor, A., Chapman, S., Birch, C., and Sallu, S.: Unprecedented climate extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and implications for maize production, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15485, 2021.

Groundwater is a reliable freshwater resource in many areas, and it is also an important source of backup water during the drought. Therefore, understanding the characteristics of groundwater resources is crucial and can be explored by building correct hydrogeological models for simulation. To build a perfect hydrogeological model, it is necessary to grasp the correct geological conditions and hydrogeological parameters to establish an effective numerical simulation of groundwater flow. However, geological conditions always contain some uncertainties, which may cause a certain impact on the spatiotemporal changes of groundwater.

Therefore, this study uses the groundwater flow numerical model, MODFLOW, to build the groundwater simulation model. The ideal case and real case at Touqiao Minshiung Industrial Zone in Chiayi is built from 2009 to 2013. The results show that under different hydrogeological parameters, geology, and other conditions, groundwater will have different patterns of variation. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method is also used to compare the dominated patterns. The simulation results show the R2 can all reach 0.9 compare with the groundwater real observation data. This study can further explore the drought-resistant availability of groundwater in various regions under different geological conditions, it will help relevant agencies and local governments to better manage groundwater resources.

Keywords: groundwater simulation, MODFLOW, uncertainty, hydrogeology, EOF

 

__________________

*Department of Civil Engineering, National Central University

How to cite: Lin, H.-S. and Lin, Y.-C.: The simulation of groundwater spatiotemporal changes under the uncertainty of hydrogeological conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4770, 2021.

In the applications and studies of subsurface flow, it is necessary to understand the geological lithological composition in the study area. So as to find out the lithological distribution in the study area, many geological spatial statistical methods used to analyze the lithological composition on unsampled points. One of the drawbacks in the traditional two-point based geostatistical methods(e.g., Kriging) is that they based on variogram, thus, inability to handle complex and heterogeneous spatial structures. Furthermore, they produce excessively smooth results. The goal of Multiple-point geostatistics is to overcome the limitations of the variogram. Multiple-point geostatistics is a general statistical framework to model spatial fields with complex structures. It uses training image(TI) instead of variogram to estimate the conditional probability at interpolation location by the observed data and the already interpolated data. Take advantage of TI helps extracting spatial structure information and precisely describing more complex structures. This study focuses on Choshui river alluvial fan, using multiple-point geostatistics method to do simulation of lithological classification.

How to cite: Lin, T.-A. and Yu, H.-L.: Simulation of Lithological Classification in Choshui river Alluvial Fan based on Muliple-point geostastics , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7505, 2021.

EGU21-4624 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Development of risk assessment model for groundwater level by wavelet-deep learning approach with smart pumping data 

Tsai-Ning Weng, Chu-Chun Hsu, and Yuan-Chien Lin

Abstract

Groundwater, as a vital existence in human life and economic development, is also one of the stable sources of water resources. Therefore, how to properly utilize groundwater becomes a very important issue when faced with water shortages. However, most of the previous literature uses monthly data as the time scale, and usually uses the historical water level data of the area as the only input factor in the modeling process without considering pumping information and rainfall. This shows that the current studies of small-scale data which is based on the use of multiple factors with hydrological mechanisms to explore and predict the groundwater level is still quite lacking.

Therefore, this study proposed a novel framework combining wavelet analysis and deep learning models called wavelet-deep learning models and taking the Daliao area of ​​Kaohsiung as an example. From the historical hourly observation data during 2017/08/23-2020/01/30, including groundwater level, smart pumping measurement, tidal, and meteorological data. After abstracting important features of each factor with groundwater level by wavelet transform, using deep learning algorithms such as recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) model to summarize and predict the impact of multiple variable factors on the groundwater level under different time lags. The results of hourly prediction show that the performance of the LSTM model and RNN model are both reliable in which values of the coefficient of determination () were obtained 0.813 and 0.784, respectively.

This study provides a feasible and accurate approach for groundwater level prediction by understanding and predicting different water level changes that may occur in the Daliao area in advance. As a result, the study will be an important reference for groundwater resources management and risk assessment, and achieve the goal of sustainable use of groundwater resources.

 

Keywords Groundwater prediction, Wavelet transform, Risk assessment, LSTM

How to cite: Weng, T.-N., Hsu, C.-C., and Lin, Y.-C.: Development of risk assessment model for groundwater level by wavelet-deep learning approach with smart pumping data , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4624, 2021.

EGU21-15413 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Quantification of Yield, Water, and Carbon budget at intra-field scale using the AgriCarbon-EO tool

Ahmad Al Bitar, Taeken Wijmer, Ludovic Arnaud, Remy Fieuzal, Gaetan Pique, and Eric Ceschia

Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 that addresses food security and sustainable agriculture requires the promotion of readily transferable and scalable agronomical solutions. The combination of high-resolution remote sensing data, field information, and physical models is identified as a robust way of answering this requirement.  Here, we present the AgriCarbon-EO tool, a decision support system that provides the yield, biomass, water and carbon budget components of agricultural fields at a 10m resolution and at a regional scale. The tool assimilates high resolution optical remote sensing data from Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites into a  radiative transfer model and a crop model. First, the application of a spatial Bayesian retrieval approach to the PROSAIL radiative transfer model provides Leaf Area Index (LAI) with its associated uncertainty. Second, LAI is assimilated into the SAFYE-CO2 crop model using a temporal Bayesian retrieval that enables the calculation of the yield, biomass, carbon and water budgets components with their associated uncertainties. In addition to remote sensing data, input datasets of crop types, weather and soil data are used to constrain the system. The concise weather data is provided from local weather stations or weather forecasts and is used to force the crop model (SAFYE-CO2) dynamics. The soil data are used in two folds. First to better parametrize the soil emissions in the radiative model retrievals and second to parametrise the water infiltration in the soil module of the crop model. The AgriCarbon-EO tool has been optimized to enable the computation of the yield, carbon, and water budget at high spatial resolution (10m) and large scale (100km2). The model is applied over the South-West of France covered by 3 Sentinel-2 tiles for major crops (wheat, maize,  sunflower). The outputs are validated over experimental plots for biomass, yield, soil moisture, and CO2 fluxes located all in the South-West of France. The experimental sites include the FR-AUR and FR-LAM ICOS sites and 22 cropland fields (biomass sampling). The validation exercise is done for the 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 cultural years. We show the added value of the use of high resolution in driving the crop model to take into account the impact of complex processes that are embedded in the LAI signal like vegetation water stress, disease, and agricultural practices. We show that the system is capable of providing the yield, carbon, and water budget of major crops accurately.  At the regional scale, we give global estimates of the carbon budget, water needs, and yields per crop type. We present the impact of intra-plot heterogeneity in the estimation of yield and the annual carbon and water budget showing the added value for high-resolution intra-plot modeling.

How to cite: Al Bitar, A., Wijmer, T., Arnaud, L., Fieuzal, R., Pique, G., and Ceschia, E.: Quantification of Yield, Water, and Carbon budget at intra-field scale using the AgriCarbon-EO tool, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15413, 2021.

Climate change cause large, long-term impacts on human well-being and adds more pressure to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The archipelago of the Azores is located in the subtropical region of the North Atlantic and is therefore highly influenced by the North Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone. As it is an almost stationary high pressure system, whose development and orientation determine the nature and characteristics of the air masses that reach the region. The motivation for this research has two phases; the first was to study the effects of some meteorological parameters (temperature, radiation, wind speed, humidity, precipitation, evaporation, tank temperature and tank level) for the period 2010-2012, on the biodiversity of phytoplankton communities in relation to the abundance of these organisms in the lagoons of Fogo, Furnas, and Sete Cidades of the island of São Miguel - Azores, for the period 2010-2012, using an analysis in Principal  Components, which will allow correlating the meteorological parameters and the abundance of phytoplankton. The phytoplankton and meteorological community data were obtained from the website of the Regional Secretariat for the Environment and Climate Change of the Azores Government. In a second phase, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis of the ERA5 project (ECMWF Re-Analyzes) was used for the 1979-2019 observation period and for the Azores region. For this region, the deviations of the surface air temperature, average annual precipitation and climatological extremes were calculated, this referring to the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation <1 mm, and also, the number of tropical nights using the ERA5 reanalysis series in the period 1979-2019 with reference to 1961-1990. Projections were also estimated up to 2100 and according to scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for the referred parameters. Finally, variations for the end of the century (2071-2100) were estimated with reference to the most recent situation of 1991-2020.

The thermal balance of a lagoon is associated with climatic and meteorological conditions. Much of the biological processes in the lagoons are directly affected by thermal changes in the water, and therefore, indirectly affected by climatic variation. Understanding the interaction between the lagoon-atmosphere system is important to predict the consequences of the effects of climate change on the abundance of phytoplankton. In this study, a positive correlation was verified between precipitation and abundance of Bacillariophyta, Dinophyta and Cryptophyta. From the calculations performed, the average of the models results in an increase in the maximum number of consecutive days with low rainfall (<1mm) from + 0.2 to 4.8 days / year until the year 2100, with a lower abundance of these algae being expected. On the other hand, Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta and Chrisophyta are well correlated with high values ​​of air temperature, lagoon water temperature and solar radiation. Thus, it is estimated an increase in the abundance of these algae, due to the forecasts of several models, that point to an increase in the average annual temperature in this region between 1 and 3 K until the year 2100, with reference to the period from 1961 to 1990.

How to cite: Meirelles, M.: Climate Change and the Evolution of Phytoplankton (Abundance) in Some Lagoons on the São Miguel Island – Azores, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1621, 2021.

EGU21-635 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Assessment of source apportionment and composition of trace elements in rainwater in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh  

Md. Arif Hossen, Md Salauddin, Asiful Hoque, and Sudip Kumar Pal

Rainwater is considered as a dependable potable and non-potable water source, used for domestic purposes as well as for human consumption in many cases. While it is usually believed that rainwater is safe for drinking purposes, many studies have explored the existence of trace metals in harvested rainwater, which can impose a serious health risk to human beings when present in relatively high concentrations. The concentration of trace elements in atmospheric precipitation including rainwater also provides a good indication of the environmental pollution caused by anthropogenic activities.

Chattogram, located in the south-eastern side of Bangladesh, is the busiest port city and the second-largest city in the country with a population of around 4.5 million people. With the presence of high salinity and arsenic in groundwater and poor quality of surface water in the region, rainwater harvesting is the most sustainable solution to be considered in the water system management for the area, particularly given annual mean precipitation of 2488 mm during the rainy season. In recent years, extensive studies have been carried out on the potential application of different rainwater harvesting systems across the region, but there have been very few studies devoted to the identification of the composition of trace elements in rainwater considering site-specific influences in the trace metal distribution in the rainwater.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the composition and source appointment of trace metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Mn, Cr, and Cd) in rainwater in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. To determine their sources and relative contributions in rainwater, a total of ninety-five rainwater samples were collected in this study from five different locations representing different land-use patterns (industrial, commercial, urban, and sub-urban) within the study area, from June 2018 to October 2019. The collected water samples were analyzed for Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Mn, Cr, and Cd using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer maintaining standard protocols. The measured trace elements from the collected rainwater samples were then compared with the WHO and Bangladesh drinking water standards.

The resulting concentration of trace metals in this study was found within the allowable limits in accordance with WHO and Bangladesh drinking water standards, confirming the suitability of rainwater as a potable water source for human consumption. The average concentration of trace metals in rainwater was found in the order of Zn ˃ Cu ˃ Fe ˃ Cr ˃ Mn ˃ Pb ˃ Cd for the tested samples. Overall, the trace metal concentrations of Cu and Zn were predominantly observed in rainwater samples collected from the industrial area, indicating the influence of anthropogenic activities on atmospheric pollution. The concentrations of the trace elements in this work were found to be overall higher when compared to those reported in other investigations around the world. The measurements of this study would provide an indication of atmospheric pollution in rainwater caused by the anthropogenic origins of trace metals as well as provide a database of trace metals in rainwater for further relevant research studies across the country.

How to cite: Hossen, Md. A., Salauddin, M., Hoque, A., and Pal, S. K.: Assessment of source apportionment and composition of trace elements in rainwater in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-635, 2021.

EGU21-15879 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Geographical Information System Based Sensitivity Analysis Accurately Predicts Hydrocarbons Contamination Using Drastic Index and Multicriteria Analysis 

Zaharatu Babika and Thomas Kjeldsen

EGU21-4529 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Fog as an unconventional water resource for securing food production in Eastern Andes

Giulio Castelli, Aixa Mestrallet, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Limber Cruz Montaño, Teresa Lopez de Armentia, Fabio Salbitano, and Elena Bresci

The rural region of “Valles Cruceños”, located in South-Eastern Bolivia experiences recurrent droughts and an increasing pressure on water and land resources driven by the interconnected effects of climate change and the expansion of neighboring and rapidly growing city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra. Despite the relative scarcity of rainfall, orographic fog events are recurrent all year round. Under these climate conditions, water can be easily harvested by fog using simple fog collectors consisting of a vertical plastic meshes supported by two posts, which are set up perpendicularly to the predominant wind direction. The access to sustainable water supply improves farmers’ resilience to dry spells, while promoting food security and livelihood thanks to water harvesting technique of fog collection.

The work describes a first assessment of fog collection in the eastern Andean escarpment of Bolivia based on a 12-month analysis made through 1-m2 fog collectors placed in 10 different locations. Results showed that, on an annual basis, an average of 6.3 l/m2/d can be obtained from most productive areas, with peaks up to 9.4 l/m2/d. Starting from experimental data collected in 2018, a linear model based on Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis was built for extrapolating longer time series of fog volumes collected, using global climate reanalysis data products as explanatory variables. Synthetic time series from 2016 to 2018 were used to design a fog water irrigation system for a standard theoretical field with four local popular crops (maize, green beans, potatoes and tomatoes) to be grown throughout the dry season.

This paper represents the first study on fog collection in Bolivia, showing how fog can represent an unconventional water resource capable of securing food production and improving family and community livelihood. Moreover, while a large part of the scientific literature focuses on advection fog, mostly occurring in the Pacific Coast of South America, this is one of the first consistent studies on the productive use of orographic fog in inland locations.

How to cite: Castelli, G., Mestrallet, A., Cuni Sanchez, A., Cruz Montaño, L., Lopez de Armentia, T., Salbitano, F., and Bresci, E.: Fog as an unconventional water resource for securing food production in Eastern Andes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4529, 2021.

EGU21-7681 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

“Reduction in water consumption and environmental improvements inBarcelona through WSUDs (Water Sensitive Urban Design Systems”

Mar Pérez Cambra, Dolors Martínez Santafé, and Josep Roca Cladera

PÉREZ CAMBRA, María del Mar
Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) Barcelona School of Architecture
Department of Architectural Technology I (TA), Centre of Land Policy and Valuations (CPSV)
Assistant Professor, Ph.D. Candidate.
Av. Diagonal 649, 08028, Barcelona, Spain
Orcid : 0000-0003-2456-3302
E-mail: mar.perez@upc.edu
Telephone: +34 934012576


Dr. MARTÍNEZ SANTAFÉ, Dolors
Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) Barcelona School of Architecture
Department of Architectural Technology I (TA), Centre of Land Policy and Valuations (CPSV)
Professor
Av. Diagonal 649, 08028, Barcelona, Spain
Orcid : 0000-0001-8200-183X
E-mail: dolors.martinez@upc.edu
Telephone: +34 934016378


Dr.ROCA CLADERA, Josep
Technical University of Catalonia (UPC)
Department of Architectural Technology I(TA), Centre of Land Policy and Valuations (CPSV)
Full Professor
Av. Diagonal 649, 08028, Barcelona, Spain.
Orcid : 0000-0003-3970-6505
E-mail: josep.roca@upc.edu
Telephone: +34 934016396


Key words: WSUDs; thermal behavior; water


“Reduction in water consumption and environmental improvements in Barcelona through WSUDs (Water Sensitive Urban Design Systems”


The aim of this communication is showing the research done during the last years to try to reduce water consumption in Barcelona with the WSUDs (Water Urban Design Systems) while reducing surface temperatures with the chosen WSUDs and reducing rainwater runoff especially in the flood areas of the city.


Water sensitive urban design (WSUD) have been chosen in this research as an approach to planning and designing urban areas of Barcelona as a resource to reduce the damage urban areas cause to water cycle when we change natural pervious surfaces into impervious ones. Thus, while recuperating in some areas water cycle we can reduce rainwater runoff.
This same WSUDs used to reduce rainwater runoff can not only infiltrate and transport water but also to harvest it where it can be more efficient. Water harvesting and reducing he rainwater runoff in a floods area calculations for an area as an example will be shown in this communication. This descentralization of the water treatment will save energy by saving the transportation a long distance away to the water sewage treatment plants. It also avoids diffuse pollution of the runoff since water quality is not worsed due to its transportation to the depuration plant.


On the other hand, since we have climate change not all the materials and construction systems are the proper ones. This part is mainly experimental and has taken almost three years measuring surfaces temperatures of some WSUDs of Barcelona and treating its data to stablish a criteria to choose WSUDs which can help to reduce surface temperatures, even in some cases, underneath the environmental temperatures. It means we can produce a better thermal effect while planning and implementing the WSUDs in this case in Barcelona and in homoclimatic cities.


Therefore, with this WSUDs specific urbanistic micro-acupuncture we can improve some effects of climatic change such as: water scarcity, floods and heat island effect. This communication will focus and deep on it.

How to cite: Pérez Cambra, M., Martínez Santafé, D., and Roca Cladera, J.: “Reduction in water consumption and environmental improvements inBarcelona through WSUDs (Water Sensitive Urban Design Systems”, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7681, 2021.

EGU21-3364 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Integrated Platform for Smart Operational Monitoring and Efficient Energy Management of Water Supply Networks

Anastasios Perdios, Georgia Papacharalampous, Athanasios Dimas, Georgios Horsch, Irene Karathanasi, Fotis Katrivesis, Demetris Stergiopoulos, Maria Zarkadoula, Eleftheria Zappa, Olga Koutsogianni, Vasileios Alexandrou, Theodoros Pappas, Pavlos Paraskevopoulos, Athanasios Venizelos, and Andreas Langousis

Research project “PerManeNt” aims at developing an integrated platform for operational monitoring, smart control, and sustainable energy management of the external aqueduct system of the city of Patras in western Greece, which consists of more than 60 km of pressurized pipeline, 44 pumping wells, 3 springs, 22 regulating tanks, and 14 pumping stations. Given the significance of the existing infrastructure, 5 main pipelines, 7 pumping wells, 9 reservoirs, and 5 pumping stations were selected to be monitored in the context of: a) real-time data collection, processing and visualization, b) near real-time detection of system malfunctioning and automatic alarm generation, and c) generation of short and longer term forecasts for the water demand and corresponding energy consumption rates, based on hydrometeorological data and environmental indices. The development of the integrated platform is expected to have significant scientific, financial, societal and environmental impacts including: i) efficient water resources management and environmental protection, ii) reduction of the operational costs and regulator expenses for system maintenance and management, iii) promotion of citizens’ awareness regarding environmental issues, and iv) significant improvement of the quality of services offered, including pricing and emergency planning.

Acknowledgments:

This research is co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH – CREATE – INNOVATE (project code: T2EDK-4177.

How to cite: Perdios, A., Papacharalampous, G., Dimas, A., Horsch, G., Karathanasi, I., Katrivesis, F., Stergiopoulos, D., Zarkadoula, M., Zappa, E., Koutsogianni, O., Alexandrou, V., Pappas, T., Paraskevopoulos, P., Venizelos, A., and Langousis, A.: Integrated Platform for Smart Operational Monitoring and Efficient Energy Management of Water Supply Networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3364, 2021.

EGU21-2235 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Practical Estimation of Minimum Night Flow in Water Distribution Networks: Large-scale Application to the City of Patras in Western Greece

Athanasios V. Serafeim, Irene Karathanasi, George Kokosalakis, Roberto Deidda, and Andreas Langousis

Abstract

In the present work we develop and test a non-parametric statistical methodology to obtain point estimates of Minimum Night Flow (MNF) in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs). The methodology constitutes a simplified version of the approach of Serafeim et al. (2021) for confidence interval estimation of background losses in WDNs, that simultaneously analyzes all night flow measurements, producing robust estimates independent of the nominal resolution of the available data.

In addition to being simpler to apply and computationally more efficient, the developed method can be applied to any WDN independent of its size, age and overall condition, its  specific geometric characteristics (intensity of altimetry, average diameter etc.), inlet/operating pressures, and the nominal resolution of the flow data.

The effectiveness of the method is tested via a large-scale application to the WDN of the City of Patras in western Greece, which consists of 79 Pressure Management Areas (PMAs) with more than 700 km of pipeline grid. To do so, we use flow data at 1 min temporal resolution, provided by the Municipal Enterprise of Water Supply and Sewerage of the City of Patras, for the 4-month winter period from 01 November 2018 – 28 February 2019, which are progressively averaged to coarser temporal resolutions, in an effort to test the sensitivity of the developed method to the nominal resolution of the data.  

The obtained point estimates of MNF are assessed on the basis of the confidence intervals obtained by the approach of Serafeim et al. (2021), highlighting the accuracy and robustness of a simple non-parametric approach in providing MNF point estimates at a minimum of effort.

Acknowledgements

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “First Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Faculty members and Researchers and the procurement of high-cost research equipment grant” (Project Number: 1162).

References

Serafeim, A.V., G. Kokosalakis, R. Deidda, I. Karathanasi and A. Langousis, (2021) Probabilistic Estimation of Minimum Night Flow in Water Distribution Networks: Large-scale Application to the City of Patras in Western Greece (submitted).

How to cite: Serafeim, A. V., Karathanasi, I., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., and Langousis, A.: Practical Estimation of Minimum Night Flow in Water Distribution Networks: Large-scale Application to the City of Patras in Western Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2235, 2021.

EGU21-3067 | vPICO presentations | HS7.3

Water capacity of red-stemmed feathermoss (Pleurozium schreberi Mitt.)

Anna Klamerus-Iwan, Maria Iwan, and Karolina Bigaj

Mosses (bryophyta) have the ability to absorb and retain large amounts of water. This property results from the specific way in which these organisms uptake, conduct, and store water.

The aim of the study was to investigate the water storage capacity (S) of red-stemmed feathermoss Pleurozium schreberi (Mitt.) in the fresh state (current capacity) and after drying (maximum capacity), depending on the initial moisture content, and depending on the percentage of the various structural parts of the moss sample which included soil.

Forty moss samples of equal size were used in the study; they were sprayed with a constant dose of water in laboratory conditions. The actual water capacity was obtained from the difference in the weight of the sample after spraying with a constant dose of water, and the weight of the sample in the fresh state. After the stimulated rainfall cycle, the samples were divided into individual fractions (part with green leaves, stalks and rhizoids, and soil) and dried in an airoven for 24 hours at 105oC.

The weight of the dry sample, the initial moisture, the maximum water capacity, and the current water capacity were calculated. The analyses conducted led to the conclusion that water capacity of moss is extremely important for the water cycle as it retained, on average, as much as 29% of the total rainfall.

The initial moisture depends above all on the amount of soil that dominated the entire sample volume. Retention capacity of the moss must be higher than that of the soil, as each additional gram of soil reduced the initial moisture content of the samples.

Experiments have additionally shown that the higher the initial moisture, i.e. the more water in the fresh moss samples collected with the soil lump, the higher the maximum capacity. The calculated maximum water capacity relates to the dry weight of the entire sample. This conclusion can be compared to the water properties of soil where the wetter fresh soil is able to retain more water, and the excessively dry soil becomes hydrophobic.

In turn, the higher the initial moisture, the less water is retained in the fresh moss sample after rainfall. This observation is similar to the actual situation that occurs in natural conditions, e.g. in a forest. This may be due to the fact that the more water is contained in the moss assimilation apparatus, the higher the cell turgor pressure, which makes the surface tighter. The moss absorbs water from the atmosphere, and the largest increases in retained water are recorded for drier samples. This may also result from external and internal structure of moss, which is different than in vascular plants. The leaves of bryophytes have characteristic vertical rows of cells of the collenchyma on their upper surface. Such arrangement of cells promotes water absorption.

The obtained results remain in line with the research on the hydrological properties of forest ecosystems, and they show that the role of moss in the forest is very important but not yet fully understood.

How to cite: Klamerus-Iwan, A., Iwan, M., and Bigaj, K.: Water capacity of red-stemmed feathermoss (Pleurozium schreberi Mitt.), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3067, 2021.

HS7.4 – Hydroclimatic change and unchange: exploring the mysteries of variability, nature and human impact

We discuss possible pathways towards reducing uncertainty in predictive modelling contexts in hydrology. Such pathways may require big datasets and multiple models, and may include (but are not limited to) large-scale benchmark experiments, forecast combinations, and predictive modelling frameworks with hydroclimatic time series analysis and clustering inputs. Emphasis is placed on the newest concepts and the most recent methodological advancements for benefitting from diverse inferred features and foreseen behaviours of hydroclimatic variables, derived by collectively exploiting diverse essentials of studying and modelling hydroclimatic variability and change (from both the descriptive and predictive perspectives). Our discussions are supported by big data (including global-scale) investigations, which are conducted for several hydroclimatic variables at several temporal scales.

How to cite: Papacharalampous, G. and Tyralis, H.: Towards benefitting from diverse inferred features and foreseen behaviours of hydroclimatic variables in predictive modelling contexts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1840, 2021.

The current patterns estimation of the water regime under climate change is one of the most urgent tasks in Ukraine and the world. Such changes are determined by fluctuations in the main climatic characteristics - precipitation and air temperature, which are defined the value of evaporation. These parameters influence on the annual runoff distribution and long-term runoff fluctuations. In particular, the annual precipitation redistribution is reflected in the corresponding changes in the river runoff.
The assessment of the current state and nature of changes in precipitation and river runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was made by comparing the current period (1991-2018) with the period of the climatological normal (1961-1990).
In general, for this area, it was defined the close relationship between the amount of precipitation and the annual runoff. Against the background of insignificant (about 1%) increase of annual precipitation in recent decades, it was revealed their redistribution by seasons and separate months. There is a decrease in precipitation in the cold period (November-February). This causes (along with other factors) a decrease in the amount of snow and, accordingly, the spring flood runoff. There are frequent cases of unexpressed spring floods of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. The runoff during March-April (the period of spring flood within the Ukrainian part of the basin) decreased by almost a third.
The increase of precipitation during May-June causes a corresponding (insignificant) increase in runoff in these months. The shift of the maximum monthly amount of precipitation from May (for the period 1961-1990) to June (in the current period) is observed.
There is a certain threat to water supply in the region due to the shift in the minimum monthly amount of precipitation in the warm period from October to August. Compared with October, there is a higher air temperature and, accordingly, higher evaporation in August, which reduces the runoff. Such a situation is solved by rational water resources management of the basin. The possibility of replenishing water resources in the basin through the transfer runoff from the Dnieper (Dnieper-Siverskyi Donets channel) and the annual runoff redistribution in the reservoir system causes some increase in the river runoff of summer months in recent decades. This is also contributed by the activities of the river basin management structures, which control the maintenance water users' of minimum ecological flow downstream the water intakes and hydraulic structures in the rivers of the basin.
Therefore, in the period of current climate change, the annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin has undergone significant changes, which is related to the annual precipitation redistribution and anthropogenic load on the basin.

How to cite: Bolbot, H. and Grebin, V.: The «rainfall-runoff» system and its long-term fluctuations in the Siverskyi Donets River Basin (Ukraine), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13350, 2021.

EGU21-7362 | vPICO presentations | HS7.4

Disentangling spatiotemporal characteristics of six different unregulated streamflow stations in India

Tarun Pant, Pavan kumar Yeditha, Ankit Agarwal, and Maheswaran Rathinasamy

With the increasing stress on water resources for a developing country like India, it is very much pertinent to study how the water resources are varying with time and investigate the dominant streamflow patterns for carrying effective planning and management activities. In this study, we attempt to investigate the spatiotemporal characterization of streamflow of six unregulated catchments in India and also quantify the impact of precipitation changes and four climate indices, namely, Niño 3.4, IOD, PDO and NAO on streamflow. Initial analysis of streamflow and precipitation was carried out using Mann Kendall and step change detection methods. Temporal variability of streamflow and its association with precipitation and climate indices was unraveled using continuous wavelet transform and Wavelet coherence respectively. Cross-wavelet transform was also used to capture the coherent relationships and phase relationships between streamflow and climate indices. The results of the study reveal an in-phase relationship between precipitation and streamflow. The analysis also considers that streamflow is mostly affected by Niño 3.4 and PDO indices. Based on the results of this work, better understanding of interrelationship between the streamflow and precipitation was well captured using Wavelet coherence when compared to Cross wavelet. It was observed that almost all basins had showed the effect of changes in precipitation on streamflow. Based on these observations, it is clear that WTC can be used for understanding interrelationship between variable when compared to XWT and gives better insights regarding the interrelationship

How to cite: Pant, T., Yeditha, P. K., Agarwal, A., and Rathinasamy, M.: Disentangling spatiotemporal characteristics of six different unregulated streamflow stations in India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7362, 2021.

EGU21-15007 | vPICO presentations | HS7.4 | Highlight

Investigating the stochastic structure of the recently published Redacted Claims data set by the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

Konstantinos Papoulakos, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Dimosthenis Tsaknias, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

During the last decades, scientific research in the field of flood risk management has provided new insights and strong computational tools towards the deeper understanding of the fundamental probabilistic and stochastic behaviour that characterizes such natural hazards. Flood hazards are controlled by hydrometeorological processes and their inherent uncertainties. Historically, a high percentage of flood disasters worldwide are inaccurately or ineffectively reported regarding the aggregated number of the affected people, economic losses and generated flood insurance claims. In this respect, the recently published National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), including more than two million claims records dating back to 1978 and more than 47 million policy records for transactions, may provide new insights into flood impacts. The aim of this research is to process the actual insurance data derived from this database, in order to detect the underlying patterns and investigate its stochastic structure, paving the way for the development of more accurate flood risk assessment and modelling strategies.

How to cite: Papoulakos, K., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., Tsaknias, D., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Investigating the stochastic structure of the recently published Redacted Claims data set by the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15007, 2021.

EGU21-5756 | vPICO presentations | HS7.4

A decreasing trend in global soil water storage from 1981 to 2017

XinRui Luo, Shaoda Li, Wunian Yang, Liang Liu, and Xiaolu Tang

Soil water storage serves as a vital resource of the terrestrial ecosystems, and it can significantly influence water cycle and carbon cycling with the frequent occurrence of soil drought induced by land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, there are high variations and uncertainties of root zone soil water storage. This study applied comparison map profile (CMP), Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen estimate and partial correlation analysis to (1) estimate the global root zone (0~1 m) soil water storage, (2) and investigate the spatial and temporal patterns from 1981 to 2017 at the global scale, (3) and their relationships with environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, potential evaportranspiration) using three soil moisture (SM) products – ERA-5, GLDAS and MERRA-2. Globally, the average annual soil water storage from 1981 to 2017 varied significantly, ranging from 138.3 (100 Pg a-1, 1 Pg = 1015 g) in GLDAS to 342.6 (100 Pg a-1) in ERA-5. Soil water storage of the three SM products consistently showed a decreasing trend. However, the temporal trend of soil water storage among different climate zones was different, showing a decreasing trend in tropical, temperate and cold zones, but an increasing trend in polar regions. On the other hand, temporal trends in arid regions differed from ERA-5, GLDAS and MERRA-2. Spatially, the SM products differed greatly, particularly for boreal areas with D value higher for 2500 Mg ha-1 a-1 and CC value lower for -0.2 between GLDAS and MERRA-2. Over 1981 to 2017, water storage of more than 50% of the global land area suffered from a decreasing trend, especially in Africa and Northeastern of China. Precipitation was the main dominated driver for variation of soil water storage, and distribution varied in different SM products. In conclusion, a global decreasing trend in soil water storage indicate a water loss from soils, and how the water loss affecting carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems under ongoing climate change needs further investigation.

How to cite: Luo, X., Li, S., Yang, W., Liu, L., and Tang, X.: A decreasing trend in global soil water storage from 1981 to 2017, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5756, 2021.

Agricultural sector, being the largest consumer of water is greatly affected by climatic variability and disasters. Most parts of the world already face an enormous challenge in meeting competitive and conflicting multi-sector water demands. Climate change has further exacerbated this challenge by putting the sustainability of current cropping patterns and irrigation practices in question. For ensuring climate-resilient food production, it is crucial to examine the patterns of the projected climate and potential impacts on the agricultural sector at a basin scale. Hence, this study was carried out for an already water-scarce basin, Rushikulya River basin (RRB), located in the coastal region of eastern India. The bias-corrected NorESM2-MM general circulation model of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used in this study under four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. The projected climatic parameters and crop water demands of the basin were analyzed assuming existing cropping pattern in the future. Analysis of the results reveals a significant and rapid increase in the temperature at a rate of 0.02-0.5ºC/year during 2026-2100 under all SSPs except SSP126, whereas the rainfall is expected to increase slightly during 2026-2100 as compared to the baseline period (1990-2016), especially in the far future (2076-2100) under all the SSPs. In contrast, monsoon rainfall is predicted to decrease under SSP245 and SSP370, while a slight increase in the monsoon rainfall is evident under SSP126 and SSP585. Although the rainy days will decrease slightly in the future 25-year time window, the number of heavy rainfall events is predicted to increase by two to three times. Also, retrospective analysis of rainfall and evapotranspiration suggested an existence of rainfall deficit (rainfall-evapotranspiration) in the basin throughout the year, except during July to September. The rainfall deficit in the basin during 2026-2100 is found to remain more or less same in the non-monsoon season, except for the month of October under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios where deficit increases by two folds. Rainfall is expected to be in surplus by 4 to 5 times higher under all SSPs except for SSP245. As to the evapotranspiration, an insignificant increasing trend is observed under future climatic condition with only 2 to 4% rise in the crop water demand compared to the baseline period. As the basin is already water stressed during most months in a year under baseline and future climatic conditions, continuing the current practice of monsoon paddy dominant cultivation in the basin will further aggravate this situation. The results of this study will be helpful in formulating sustainable irrigation plans and adaptation measures to address climate-induced water stress in the basin.

Keywords: Climate change; CMIP6; SSP; Monsoon rainfall; Temperature; Crop water demand.

How to cite: Mahapatra, S. and Jha, M. K.: Future Climatic Patterns and Sustainability of Current Cropping Patterns in a Water-Scarce River Basin of Eastern India , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10487, 2021.

EGU21-9000 | vPICO presentations | HS7.4

Land Cover Change: Does it affect temperature variability?

Aristoklis Lagos, Stavroula Sigourou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Theano Iliopoulou, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Changes in the land cover occur all the time at the surface of the Earth both naturally and anthropogenically. In the last decades, certain types of land cover change, including urbanization, have been correlated to local temperature increase, but the general dynamics of this relationship are still not well understood. This work examines whether land cover is a parameter affecting temperature increase by employing global datasets of land cover change, i.e. the Historical Land-Cover Change Global Dataset, and daily temperature from the NOAA database. We thoroughly investigate the temperature variability and its possible correlation to the different types of land-cover changes. A comparison is specifically made between the rate of temperature increase measured in urban areas, and the same rate measured in nearby non-urban areas.

How to cite: Lagos, A., Sigourou, S., Dimitriadis, P., Iliopoulou, T., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Land Cover Change: Does it affect temperature variability?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9000, 2021.

Surface water resources are extremely vulnerable to climate variability and are seriously threatened by human activities. The depletion of surface water is expected to rapidly increase due to the combination of future climate change and world population growth projections. Under this scenario, the impacts of climate and human dynamics on surface water resources represent a global issue, requiring the definition of adequate management strategies that prevent water crisis and guarantee equitable access to freshwater resources. Remote sensing provides data that allow to monitor environmental change processes, such as changes in climatic conditions, land use, and spatial allocation of human settlements and activities. Although many products describing surface water dynamics and urban growth obtained from satellite imagery are available, an integrated analysis of such geospatial information has not been performed yet. Here, we explore the driving role of the variation in key climatic variables (e.g.,  precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture) and the extent of urban areas in the depletion of surface water across the watersheds in the United States by using data derived from remote sensing images and performing a correlation analysis. From our preliminary results, we observe that there is a positive correlation between surface water loss and the level of urbanization in each basin of our study area, meaning that surface water loss increases with the extent of urban area. On the contrary, we find that the correlation between surface water loss and precipitation has a counter-intuitive trend which needs to be further examined.

How to cite: Ceola, S. and Palazzoli, I.: Contribution of urbanization and climate variability on surface water depletion across USA watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-484, 2021.

EGU21-2637 | vPICO presentations | HS7.4

Stochastic analysis of time-series related to ocean acidification

Georgios Vagenas, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Since the pre-industrial era at the end of the 18th century, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) has increased by 47.46% from the level of 280 ppmv (parts per million volume) to 412.89 ppmv (Mauna Loa – NOAA Station, November 2020). These increased concentrations caused by natural & anthropogenic activities, interact with the aquatic environment which acts as a safety valve. Nevertheless, the absorbed CO2 amounts undergo chemical transformations, resulting in increasing ionized concentrations that can significantly reduce the water’s pH, a process described as ocean acidification. Here, we use the HOT (Hawaii-Ocean-Time series) to perform time series analysis for temperature, carbon dioxide partial pressure and pH. More specifically, we analyze their temporal changes in month and annual time lag. Then, we proceed in comparisons with relevant studies on atmospheric data to evaluate the produced results. Finally, we make an effort to disentangle the results with simplified assumptions connected with the observed impact of ocean acidification on the aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Vagenas, G., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Stochastic analysis of time-series related to ocean acidification, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2637, 2021.

HS7.5 – Hydro-meteorological extremes and hazards: vulnerability, risk, impacts and mitigation

This presentation is going to address some of the main commonalities between hydrological research and hydrological practice, from the perspective of the Natural Catastrophe (Nat Cat) model developer. For example, hydrological research on the one hand, has a strong focus on the advancement of understanding hydrological processes. The hazard component of Nat Cat flood models, on the other hand, tends to be focused more on model suitability, accuracy and precision. However, it does rely heavily on a thorough understanding of the main hydro-meteorological drivers to describe catchment processes across the relevant spatial and temporal scales, and these are incorporated to achieve model realism and robustness, in particular when extrapolating outside the range of observed regimes. The latter is of importance when modelling extremes, which by definition are scarce.

The presentation will also go into detail on the feedbacks between hydrological research and hydrological practice. For example, how the latest generation of Natural Catastrophe models benefit from the advances in hydrological research, e.g. research on large scale hydroclimatic patterns like ENSO, or climate change research. Incorporating the latest research in hydrological hazard modeling into Catastrophe Models ultimately improves the risk assessment for a set of assets. Also, large-scale flood risk models using coupled model chains that are relatively new in the hydrological research literature, have been part of the standard methodology for the Nat Cat models for a couple of decades, and might be seen as an indicator for the societal demand to perform novel research in these fields.

How to cite: Salinas, J.: Intersections between hydrological research and hydrological practice – a Natural Catastrophe modeller perspective, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3235, 2021.

EGU21-3396 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Flood-prone areas delineation in coastal regions using the Geomorphic Flood Index

Cinzia Albertini, Domenico Miglino, Vito Iacobellis, Francesco De Paola, and Salvatore Manfreda

Detecting areas exposed to flood inundation in coastal zones is of paramount importance for reducing damages and preventing human and economic losses. In general, the Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) method, based on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and mostly applied to riverine flood, provides a good representation of flood-prone areas with low requirements in terms of data, time and costs. However, the method does not account for inter-basin floodwater transfers and, therefore, performs poorly on coastal basins. The present work addresses this shortcoming by explicitly taking into account these potential inter-basin water transfers. We applied the GFI method with this new feature to a coastal basin located in southern Italy and the outcome was compared with a flood inundation map obtained by a two-dimensional hydraulic simulation for a return period of 300 years. Its transferability was tested in a second adjacent coastal basin using a threshold binary classification and the sensitivity of the methodology to the return period was investigated. Results show that coastal flood-prone areas are successfully delineated with performance metrics above 93%. This achievement represents a step further in the application of the GFI method, that can help stakeholders in flood risk management to rapidly and inexpensively characterize hazard-prone areas.

How to cite: Albertini, C., Miglino, D., Iacobellis, V., De Paola, F., and Manfreda, S.: Flood-prone areas delineation in coastal regions using the Geomorphic Flood Index, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3396, 2021.

EGU21-12431 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A methodological framework for assessing changes in future drought risk: evaluation over Australia

Diogo Araujo, Francesco Marra, Cory Merow, and Efthymios Nikolopoulos

Accumulating evidence on the increase of intensity and frequency of climate extremes such as droughts, necessitates the development of effective climate adaptation procedures. To inform adaptation and mitigation strategies we need to develop improved methodologies for assessing future drought risk. The outputs of such methodologies must be usable by various stakeholders (e.g. water, energy and biodiversity conservation managers) and must be scalable (from regional to global) and methodologically robust. Severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves serve as a concise way to quantitatively and qualitatively represent anticipated changes in drought risk and thus offer an optimum way to convey information on future drought risk across scientific disciplines and stakeholders. In this work we are presenting a methodological framework for assessing future drought risk that integrates state-of-the-art high-resolution (~10km) climate data from ERA5-Land reanalysis and downscaled CMIP6 projections with novel statistical procedures for robust estimation of SDF curves. Results are presented for Australia and are based on meteorological drought identification based on the widely established indicators of  Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Comparison between historic (1981-2019) and future (2020-2100) drought characteristics reveal that severity and duration tends to increase towards the end of the century. The spatial extent of severe and extreme droughts is also projected to increase, particularly in central and western Australia. The SDF analysis highlights a consistent increase in severity of extreme (i.e. 100yr) drought towards the end of century. While there is still significant uncertainty on the projected magnitude of increase, the multi-model analysis reveals that increasing trend of drought risk is consistent across models . The proposed framework can be applied at global scale and can be easily modified to incorporate additional drought indicators.

How to cite: Araujo, D., Marra, F., Merow, C., and Nikolopoulos, E.: A methodological framework for assessing changes in future drought risk: evaluation over Australia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12431, 2021.

EGU21-394 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Variability of Temperature Extremes in Northwest Himalayas during Early 21st Century.

Farhan Aziz, Nadeem Tariq, Akif Rahim, and Ambreen Mahmood

In recent years, extreme events and their severe damage have become more common around the world. It is widely known that atmospheric greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming.
A set of appropriate indicators describing the extremes of climate change can be used to study the extent of climate change. This study reveals the trends of temperature extreme indices on the spatial scale in the western part of Northwest Himalayas. The study is conducted at 13 climate stations lies at a different altitude of the study area.The Daily maximum and minimum temperature data during 2000--2018 of stations obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). The 12 extreme temperature indices (FD, SU, TXx , TXn., TNx, TNn, TN10p , TN90p, TX10p , TX90p, CSDI, WSDI) recommended by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) are used to study the variabilities in temperature extremes. These indices are characterized based on amplitude, persistence, and frequency. The analysis is performed by using R package of extremes “RClimDEX”. The analysis shows the frequency of summer days (Su) and warm spells (WSDI) have increasing trends in the Southwest region, whereas the frequency of cold spells and frost days have decreasing trends observed in the Northern region of the study areas. The maximum and minimum values of daily maximum temperature (TXX, TXN) increase in the foothill area of the region and decreasing trends in the high elevation region. The day and night get cool in the Northwest region, whereas the days and nights are showing warmer trends in low elevation regions of the study area. Overall, the study concludes that the Northwestern parts have cool trends while South West and South eastern parts have warm trends during the early 21st century.

Key words:  Temperature Extremes, Northwest Himalayas, Trends, R-Climdex, Climate Change

How to cite: Aziz, F., Tariq, N., Rahim, A., and Mahmood, A.: Variability of Temperature Extremes in Northwest Himalayas during Early 21st Century., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-394, 2021.

EGU21-7822 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Evacuation shelter suitability modeling under combined geo-hydrological hazards in Western Ghat region, India

Somnath Bera and Kaushal Raj Gnyawali

Geo-hydrological hazards like floods and landslides are common in mountain regions. During a disaster, evacuation shelters become a primary need of people. We develop a model to find suitable locations for emergency shelters in flood and landslide strikes in a rural mountain setting of the Western Ghat region, India. Firstly, susceptibility maps for flood and landslide hazards are prepared using a machine learning (Random forest) algorithm. Then location suitability modeling is done in GIS using the entropy method. The following entropy evolution factors are considered- flood susceptibility, landslide susceptibility, land use, distance from the road, distance from the hospital, distance from the market, distance from the fire station, distance from safe water sources, and the population of settlement cluster area. Model constraining factors like steep slope, high landslide, flood susceptible area, and protected area are accounted for using a cost matrix. The model is compared with community-based suitability mapping and evacuation centers during the past disaster of 2005. The study will contribute towards better disaster-resilient planning of rural mountainous settlements.

Keywords: Evacuation shelter, landslide, flood, random forest, entropy method, GIS

How to cite: Bera, S. and Gnyawali, K. R.: Evacuation shelter suitability modeling under combined geo-hydrological hazards in Western Ghat region, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7822, 2021.

EGU21-1792 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A procedure for identifying rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of landslides

Michele Calvello and Gaetano Pecoraro

Rainfall-induced landslides are widespread phenomena that cause casualties and economic losses every year. In Italy, intense or prolonged rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. The identification of the rainfall conditions responsible for the initiation of landslides is a crucial issue and may contribute to reduce landslide risk at regional scale. In the literature, the most widely used criteria for the identification of rainfall conditions initiating slope failures are based on rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) or cumulative rainfall-duration (E-D) charts. In this study, a novel E-D procedure for the objective reconstruction of the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is proposed. Rainfall measurements are derived from the satellite-based NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) database, which contains gridded precipitation estimates, with a half-hour temporal resolution and a 0.10-degree spatial resolution. Firstly, precipitation measurements are aggregated at hourly temporal resolution and the mean rainfall values over each territorial unit is calculated. Then, rainfall measurements are aggregated in order to obtain a sequence of rainfall events. Finally, for each rainfall event all the possible rainfall combinations are differentiated in two groups depending on whether they triggered or did not trigger landslides. The proposed procedure has been tested in a study area including six weather warning zones defined for hydrogeological risk management in Italy in the period between January 2010 and December 2018. Data on landslide occurrences are derived from the FraneItalia catalog (https://franeitalia.wordpress.com), a landslide inventory based on information retrieved from online Italian news. In the study area, the FraneItalia database reports 513 landslide events in the period 2010-2018. This procedure shall be a contribution toward objectively defining rainfall conditions responsible for landslides in different geographic areas, thus reducing the subjectivity inherent in the often-adopted heuristic treatment of rainfall and landslide data when defining rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences.

How to cite: Calvello, M. and Pecoraro, G.: A procedure for identifying rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of landslides, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1792, 2021.

EGU21-2436 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Modelling high-resolution rainfall extremes in a changing climate

Ting-Yu Dai and Li-Pen Wang

 

Stochastic modelling is an increasingly popular method to generate long rainfall time series as input for the subsequent hydrological applications, such as the design of urban drainage system. It aims to resemble the physical process of rainfall using parameters with physical meanings, instead of its statistical features. There are, however, two main challenges yet to be overcome in stochastic rainfall modelling. These are 1) reproduction of rainfall extremes at sub-hourly timescales, and 2) incorporation of the impact of climate change.

Some recent breakthroughs have been made to address the first challenge. Onof and Wang (2020) reformulated the equations of the randomised Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) models and showed that the improved models can well preserving rainfall extremes at sub-hourly (5- and 10-min) and hourly timescales. 

The second challenge is however yet to be explored. Cross et al. (2020) recently presented a multivariate regression method that associates BLRP parameters to temperature estimates on a monthly basis, attempting to capture the dynamics of the underlying climate. However, the concept of ‘calendar month’ - an artificial period of time - was still employed to represent natural seasonality. This may fail capturing the natural shift and length difference of seasons between years. To address the above drawback, it is critical to ‘relax’ the concept of calendar month, so that the most similar climate conditions between different years can be better identified. 

An innovative approach is proposed in this work to circumvent the above drawback, where two main improvements are implemented. First, instead of following calendar month, we slice the original rainfall time series using an overlapping moving window with 30-day window width and 10-day step size. This enables a stronger continuity in representing climate variations. Second, the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm is employed to quantify the similarity of climate conditions between different years. DTW is a widely-used algorithm in measuring the similarity between two time series, and is known to be less sensitive to the distortion in time axis as compared to the Euclidean distance metrics. Then, based upon DTW measures, we can identify the historical periods with the most similar climate conditions to the target ones. The statistical properties of the local gauge data for these specific periods are used to build the BLRP model in a dynamic fashion. 

Selected atmospheric variables (including geopotential, temperature, U-component of wind, and V-component of wind ) from the ERA5 re-analysis datasets and five-minute rainfall data from 6 long recording rain gauges in Germany (one with 69 years of data; others with 49 years) are used to test the impact of the proposed approach. Preliminary results show that the statistical behaviours of newly identified periods of data are more analogous to the target period as compared to those identified from the traditional method relying on calendar month. This demonstrates the potential to use the proposed new approach to better incorporating the impact of climate change into stochastic rainfall time series modelling. 

How to cite: Dai, T.-Y. and Wang, L.-P.: Modelling high-resolution rainfall extremes in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2436, 2021.

EGU21-13271 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Detecting and analyzing regional trends in sub-daily rainfall annual maxima by using the Meta-statistical Extreme Value Distribution

Eleonora Dallan, Mattia Zaramella, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra

Global warming is expected to modify the regime of extreme precipitation. Physical laws translate increasing atmospheric heat into increasing atmospheric water content that, together with changes in the atmospheric dynamics, drive precipitation changes. The literature generally agrees that extreme precipitation is changing. However, the study of observed annual maximum time series suggests that trends are highly variable in space and uncertain, also as a result of the inherent large stochastic uncertainty of rainfall maxima. In the present work, we exploit the Meta-statistical Extreme Value (MEV) Distribution to investigate the statistical processes behind these trends and understand how they can be related to changing meteorological conditions. The MEV framework was recently proposed for the frequency analyses of extremes under pre-asymptotic conditions and was shown to significantly improve estimation uncertainty for extreme events by using ordinary events. The narrow confidence interval characterizing MEV is a clear advantage for trend analysis, and its ability to separate storm intensity and yearly occurrence permits to better understand the statistical processes underlying extremes. We gathered data from 33 stations in the Trentino region (Eastern Italian Alps) with at least 25 years of 5-minute resolution records (average density 1/190 km-2) and computed the parameters describing the yearly intensity distribution of events at multiple durations ranging from 15 minutes to 24 hours as well as their yearly number. The Regional Mann-Kendall test is used for evaluating the presence of trend in the distribution parameters, number of events per year, estimated quantiles and recorded annual maxima. Results confirm the presence of significant trends in the annual maxima. Trends in the 2-year quantiles estimated yearly using MEV are consistent with the observed trends in annual maxima, which are more marked for 15min to 1 hr duration and less marked for 3hr to 24 hr duration. Conversely, trends in rare quantiles (10-year, 100-year) are significant for durations up to 1 hour and become not significant for longer durations. Analysis of the parameters shows that these trends are likely due to a combination of (i) increasing number of storm events per year and increasing intensity of the storms, and (ii) changes in the tail properties of the storms.

How to cite: Dallan, E., Zaramella, M., Borga, M., and Marra, F.: Detecting and analyzing regional trends in sub-daily rainfall annual maxima by using the Meta-statistical Extreme Value Distribution, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13271, 2021.

EGU21-12683 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Flood risk management in Ghana: gaps, opportunities, and socio-technical tools for improving resilience

Mariele Evers, Adrian Almoradie, Mariana M. de Brito, Britta Höllermann, Joshua Ntajal, Mawuli Lumor, Aymar Bossa, Charlotte Norman, Yira Yacouba Yira Yacouba, and Jean Hounkpe Jean Hounkpe

Ghana is one of the countries most prone to floods in West Africa. Its annual occurrence often leads to disasters that are mostly felt by the urban poor. Despite the existence of salient activities conducted in order to reduce the flood risk in Ghana, there are still persisting challenges. Here, we evaluate these gaps and describe opportunities for further improving flood risk management (FRM) in Ghana. A mixed-method participatory approach comprising questionnaires, workshops, interviews with key stakeholders, and a systematic literature review were employed (Almoradie et al. 2020). Existing problems, discourses, FRM practices, and opportunities to enhance flood resilience were identified. Based on that, potential research directions on how to tackle these challenges were outlined. Results showed that the stakeholders interviewed construct the effectiveness of FRM differently and even in contradictory ways, embedded in diverse storylines. Furthermore, we found that Ghana’s FRM is still reactive rather than preventive and that research in the field of quantitative hazard and risk assessment is rather rudimentary. FRM policies and tools such as flood early warning systems (FEWS) are in place, but efforts should be directed towards their implementation and monitoring, investigation of socio-technical capacity aspects, and enhancement of institutions’ mandates, functions, and coordination. Based on these findings, we conceptualized a research and development project, which is based on participatory research, aiming to tackle some of the identified issues. To this end, we will implement a collaborative modelling approach and will develop a socio-technical tool, which comprises: (1) a tailored decision support system, (2) a citizen science-based data collection system, (3) a flood forecasting tool, and (4) an approach for modelling cascading risks.

Almoradie, A.*, de Brito, M.M.*Evers, M., Bossa, A., Lumor, M., Norman, C., Yacouba, Y., Hounkpe, J. (2020) Current flood risk management practices in Ghana: gaps and opportunities for improving resilience. International Journal of Flood Risk Management, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12664.

How to cite: Evers, M., Almoradie, A., de Brito, M. M., Höllermann, B., Ntajal, J., Lumor, M., Bossa, A., Norman, C., Yira Yacouba, Y. Y., and Jean Hounkpe, J. H.: Flood risk management in Ghana: gaps, opportunities, and socio-technical tools for improving resilience, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12683, 2021.

EGU21-15641 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A semplified method for flood risk evaluation at micro-scale level in Benevento city (Southern Italy)

Gianna Ida Festa, Paola Revellino, Francesco Maria Guadagno, Luigi Guerriero, Mariano Focareta, and Giuseppe Meoli

In the latest decades, the impact of floods has generated an increase of loss of human lives, as well as the interruption of economic activities in the affected areas. In this context, we present an implemented methodology for micro-scale flood risk evaluation that considers direct and tangible damages as a function of the hydrometric height and allows for quickly estimates of the damage level caused by alluvial events. The method has been applied and tested for economic and residential buildings in the town of Benevento (southern Italy), which was hit by destructive floods in the past. As the limitation of this original method is connected to the huge amounts of input data, we tried to overcome this limit by applying a simplified procedure in defining the physical data of buildings (e.g. type of buildings, n° of floors, presence of cellar). More specifically, during data collection on building features, two different criteria were used:1) data were acquired through a careful field survey, and 2) data were obtained through the topographical database of the Campania region and through the generalization of heights for each type of building. Data obtained using the first criterion result in a highly accurate risk assessment but, at the same time, the method is non-immediate and time-consuming. On the other hand, the second one is more expeditious. By comparison, the two criteria show very similar results and minimal differences, making the generalized data acquisition the most expeditious. In conclusion, the basic method allows estimating highly detailed potential losses for representative buildings categories in the urban context, but involves a higher degree of resolution; the generalised method, instead, thought the simplification of the data, responds to the need of reaching in a short time a damage value extremely similar to the real one.

How to cite: Festa, G. I., Revellino, P., Guadagno, F. M., Guerriero, L., Focareta, M., and Meoli, G.: A semplified method for flood risk evaluation at micro-scale level in Benevento city (Southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15641, 2021.

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous natural hazards because they can cause severe economic losses and high mortality. Climate risk is defined as a metric that depends on social vulnerability and the occurrence of natural hazards. A social vulnerability index was constructed for this study using two metrics: the degree of local marginalization and the local social gap. The accumulated rainfall and duration of extreme precipitation associated with TC passages are examined as a natural hazard during the period 1981–2017. TC days are depicted as days when TC‐related rainfall exceeded the 95th percentile of daily precipitation from May to November, defined as summer precipitation. In this way, changes in climate risk under El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are explored to determine regions where both social vulnerability and TC days are high. These changes are useful to find out when disasters have more chances to occur. In the present study, climate risk was found to increase more than 80% from average in southwestern Mexico during strong El Niño years. Under neutral conditions, climate risk values rise to more than 40% than average over northwestern Mexico. Under strong La Niña conditions, climate risk increases by more than 80% from average over the eastern coast of Mexico. Our approach is validated through a comparison between anomalies in climate risk and disaster costs (socioeconomic impacts). Both local vulnerability and ENSO conditions exacerbate socioeconomic impacts associated with TCs, and an analysis of linear trends in TC rainfall and TC days reveals that most of the coastal regions in Mexico have a significant rising trend in both variables. Thus, Mexico should be prepared to face more TC extreme rainfall events. Suggestions for how Mexico can meet the objectives of international risk agendas are discussed.

How to cite: Jaramillo, A. and Dominguez, C.: Are the socioeconomic impacts associated with tropical cyclones in Mexico exacerbated by local vulnerability and ENSO conditions?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-981, 2021.

EGU21-349 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A critical analysis of French flood risk governance

Ioannis Kougkoulos, Myriam Merad, Simon Cook, and Ioannis Andredakis

France experiences catastrophic floods on a yearly basis, with significant societal impacts. In this paper, we critically evaluate the French Flood Risk Governance (FRG) system with the aim of identifying any shortcoming and, thereby, to suggest improvements. To do so, we employ a historical assessment of catastrophic past flood events in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region and perform Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)-analysis. Our evaluation shows that despite persistent government efforts, the impacts of flood events in the region do not appear to have lessened over time. Identical losses in the same locations (e.g. Riou de l’Argentière watershed) can be observed after repetitive catastrophic events (e.g. 2015, 2019) triggering local inhabitant protests. We argue that the French FRG system can benefit from the following improvements: a) regular updates of the risk prevention plans and tools; b) the adoption of a Build Back Better logic instead of promoting the reconstruction of damaged elements in the same locations; c) taking into account undeclared damages into flood risk models (and not only those declared to flood insurance); d) increased communication between the actors of the different steps of each cycle (prepare, control, organise etc.); e) increased communication between three main elements of the cycle (risk prevention, emergency management and disaster recovery); f) an approach that extends the risk analysis outside the borders of the drainage basin (to be used in combination with the current basin risk models); and g) increased participation in FRG from local population. We also briefly discuss the use operational research methods for the optimisation of the French FRG.

How to cite: Kougkoulos, I., Merad, M., Cook, S., and Andredakis, I.: A critical analysis of French flood risk governance, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-349, 2021.

EGU21-14648 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A risk assessment for major river flooding in Myanmar incorporating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability

Hnin Wuit Yee Kyaw and Alexandra Dudley

Worldwide, floods have major impacts on people, economies, and the environment. In Myanmar, floods are the most frequently occurring hazard and have the highest contribution to average annual loss compared to all other hazards. Although the population has learned to adapt to yearly flooding, climate change exacerbates the frequency and magnitude of flood events to an extent where the population has little capacity to cope. Many factors such as poverty and dependency on agriculture make the Burmese people more vulnerable to major flood events. The need to better understand flood risk and its spatial patterns in Myanmar has become extremely important.

However, the state of the art on flood risk in Myanmar is not well developed. Analysis has mostly focused on flood loss, hazard, mitigation, and resilience, or future vulnerability to flooding. Here we present a comprehensive quantitative indicator-based risk assessment for a major flood event with a 100-year return period at the township level for Myanmar. This analysis will show the spatial distribution of major river flood risk based on the IPCC framing of risk while highlighting factors of vulnerability that contribute to risk. The analysis considered the present-day flood risk to people. Flood extent and population distribution were used to create a hazard/exposure indicator. Then, a systematic literature review was performed to identify relevant vulnerability indicators and drivers for Myanmar. Data for each vulnerability indicator was collected and compiled into one vulnerability index score. Then, we compared two different methods of aggregation of the elements into a risk index: multiplicative arithmetic aggregation and overlay of different quantiles of hazard/exposure and vulnerability. Post hoc analysis was conducted to test the relationship between elements for the multiplicative aggregation method.

The analysis showed that the highly exposed populations and townships are adjacent to rivers, with most flooding in the Ayeyarwady region. Major urban population centers such as Yangon and Mandalay cities have high exposure to flooding. Vulnerability to river flooding is primarily triggered by poverty, inadequate access to healthcare with a limited number of doctors and beds, poor road networks, and a small number of households with boats. Risk is highly concentrated in townships in the Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Rakhine regions in both aggregation methods.

Importantly, there are limitations in this study and future work could focus on addressing these gaps. For example, this assessment focused on a single hazard (flood) and a single exposed element (people) whereas Myanmar has a multi-hazard environment with complex social-ecological systems and high levels of resource dependency. Nevertheless, our study results remain essential for local and national authorities and related organizations in the field of disaster risk reduction as it has a strong conceptual foundation of risk with a clear focus on entry points for vulnerability and risk reduction.

 

 

How to cite: Wuit Yee Kyaw, H. and Dudley, A.: A risk assessment for major river flooding in Myanmar incorporating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14648, 2021.

EGU21-5416 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

An analysis of the meteorological compound hazard of typhoons

Gregor Leckebusch and Kelvin Ng

An assessment of the compound hazard – extreme wind and extreme precipitation, of tropical cyclones (TCs) is of importance due to the enormous potential impact of TCs to the economic development and societal welfare of coastal regions.  Recently, a new method to construct a large physically consistent TC event set (roughly 10,000 years of events) based on numerical weather prediction models has been developed (Ng & Leckebusch, 2021).  However, a systematic method for the detailed analysis of the compound nature of the TC hazard with respect to damage relevant impacts is not yet available.  In this presentation, we propose a new metric, TC compound meteorological hazard risk index (CMRI) to assess TC compound meteorological hazard risk in terms of potential economic loss for mainland China.  CMRI considers TC-related extreme wind and extreme precipitation which are identified based on an impact-oriented tracking algorithm.  CMRI is closely linked to the normalised economic loss in China between 1979-2014.  We also present preliminary results of the application of CMRI in estimating the return period of the TC-related potential economic loss in mainland China.

How to cite: Leckebusch, G. and Ng, K.: An analysis of the meteorological compound hazard of typhoons, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5416, 2021.

EGU21-12638 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A people-centred approach for emergency communication: The case of site-specific warnings in Terrassa, Spain

Erika Meléndez-Landaverde, Daniel Sempere-Torres, and Marc Berenguer

The resilience of communities depends on how their citizens react during emergencies and how authorities implement systems to support appropriate self-protection responses from the public. Past events such as the storm Gloria in Spain demonstrate that one of the main challenges in risk communication remains citizens' inappropriate understanding of the upcoming risk and its potential impact in their daily lives. The current official warnings to the population in Spain continue to be based on the exceedances of the event's physical parameters, such as rainfall intensities and accumulations, that can be difficult for citizens to understand, personalize and translate into the expected local risks. The above can create a communication gap between what authorities provide to citizens in terms of risk information and what they actually need from a flood warning to make better decisions and react appropriately during an emergency. 

Society is now demanding localized, people-centred risk communication for better social comprehension and acceptation, which provides understandable information about the expected local impacts and clear guidelines for ensuring citizens' safety during emergencies.

Thus, to support citizens' understanding and decision-making process at risk, we present a people-centred approach to design and implement new site-specific warnings (SSWs), i.e. warnings at problematic points based on local vulnerability and exposure information. The proposed methodology places people and communities at the core of the early warning system process. It blends meteorological information coming from radar-based rainfall nowcasting, numerical modelling and historical flood data to translate forecasts into relevant local impacts that the citizens may experience due to the coming weather-induced events and appropriate self-protection actions to help secure their lives. In this context, an active collaboration process with civil protection authorities, stakeholders and citizens is established from the start to incorporate their detailed local knowledge to the system and target their communication needs during emergencies. New technologies, such as smartphone applications, are used to disseminate the SSWs within the area of risk.

A first pilot based on the SSWs methodology is currently at the operational stage in Terrassa, Spain, for selected vulnerable points. Besides contributing to address the current gaps in risk communication, the implemented methodology in this study can help create a proactive, dynamic society by empowering its citizens to respond appropriately during the first instances of an emergency.

How to cite: Meléndez-Landaverde, E., Sempere-Torres, D., and Berenguer, M.: A people-centred approach for emergency communication: The case of site-specific warnings in Terrassa, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12638, 2021.

EGU21-1342 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Road network vulnerability to extreme floods: accessibility-based analysis and patterns of vulnerability

Tsolmongerel Papilloud, Andreas Zischg, and Margreth Keiler

Understanding the different dimensions of vulnerability to floods is instrumental to gaining knowledge on flood impacts, to guide the development of appropriate risk analysis methods and to make critical decisions in risk management. Vulnerability assessment of complex systems, such as transportation infrastructure, demands an integrated framework to include various analytical methods to investigate the problem from the different characteristic perspectives related to their topological, functional, logic and dynamic properties. One approach to understand the impacts of transportation infrastructure disruptions on people is the accessibility-based vulnerability approach. Accessibility-based vulnerability analysis examines changes of access levels across a traffic network disrupted by floods, thereby providing insight on the impacts to a broader range of socio-economic aspects and to the society as a whole.

The presented study evaluates two different approaches. The first approach computes direct impacts and investigates different measures for extreme flood impacts to the road network. The second approach computes indirect impacts and

i) incorporates detailed information about the local road network in the accessibility-based vulnerability analysis by modifying the approach of calculating travel time between zones,

ii) includes additional contributing factors to the accessibility-based vulnerability analysis by considering residents and socio-economic opportunities in flood-affected areas,

iii) effectively identifies the most vulnerable traffic zones with respect to selected extreme flood scenarios, and

iv) investigates the influence of different spatial patterns of floods on accessibility-based vulnerability assessment.

We used three measures to assess direct flood impacts on the road network towards selecting the flood scenarios, which are representative for different flood patterns. Namely, Loss Index (LI), the total value of normalized edge betweenness centrality (Total-EBC), and the average normalized edge betweenness centrality (Mean-EBC). The Hansen integral accessibility approach was modified for two vulnerability indices considering traffic zones along with average shortest travel time as cost and applied for selected flood scenarios. The resulted vulnerability indices were additionally analyzed to identify the most vulnerable traffic zones for each approach and the spatial influence of the flood and network pattern as well as the distribution of population and opportunities. Finally, effects of the contributing factors to the vulnerability were investigated using correlation and comparison between the flood scenarios.

The results of the direct impact assessment show that different flood scenario and varying spatial extent are selected as extreme events based on Total-EBC and Mean-EBC. The comparisons of these different measures in assessing direct impact of extreme floods to road network allows to plan different services on disaster mitigation to place mitigation policies to be efficient. Most of the highly vulnerable traffic zones are related to the flood extent in these zones and affected population and opportunities in the traffic zones. However, the most remote traffic zones were also highly vulnerable in flood scenario, if some parts of the important connecting roads for these remote traffic zones were disturbed by a flood in traffic zones faraway. The overall results implicate those different types of flood scenarios could be classified into several groups according to their patterns of vulnerability.

How to cite: Papilloud, T., Zischg, A., and Keiler, M.: Road network vulnerability to extreme floods: accessibility-based analysis and patterns of vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1342, 2021.

EGU21-2834 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Modelling cascading impacts and risks across linear infrastructure systems

Maria Pregnolato and Chiara Arrighi

Linear infrastructure systems such as Water Supply System (WSS), electricity and transportation are considered Critical Infrastructures (CIs) because their failure would jeopardize public health and economic security, with repercussions on the whole society (Fekete, 2019). CIs are exposed to natural hazards, such as flooding, which is the most frequent and damaging natural threat worldwide; in particular, ~7.5% of road and rail infrastructures are exposed to a 1/100-year flood event worldwide.

Flooding can damage CIs directly (when impacts are due to the physical contact with floodwaters, i.e. direct impacts) and indirectly (when impacts are not due to the physical contact, and/or occur outside the inundated area in space or time, i.e. indirect or cascade impacts). Whereas the assessment of direct impacts is well-advanced, the evaluation of indirect impacts is less frequently achieved (Arrighi et al. 2019).

 

This work presents the risk analysis of two linear infrastructure systems, i.e. the water distribution system (WSS) and the road network system. The evaluation of indirect flood impacts on the two networks is carried out for four flooding scenarios, obtained by a coupled 1D-quasi 2D hydraulic model. Two methods are used for assessing the impacts on the water distribution system and on the road network, a Pressure-Driven Demand network model 15 and a transport network disruption model respectively. The analysis is focused on the identification of: (i) common impact metrics; (ii) vulnerable elements exposed to the flood; (iii) similarities and differences of the methodological aspects for the

two networks; (iv) risks due to systemic interdependency. The study presents an application to the metropolitan area of Florence (Italy). When interdependencies are accounted for, results showed that the risk to the WSS in terms of Population Equivalent (PE/year) can be reduced by 71.5% and 41.8%, if timely repairs to the WSS stations are accomplished by 60 and 120 minutes respectively; the risk to WSS in terms of pipes length (km/year) reduces by 53.1% and 15.6% (Arrighi et al. 2020).

This study represents one of the first attempts to model flooding impact to CIs for real-world networks, considering mutual interconnections, and it is expected to be relevant to researchers, as well as practitioners. The study highlights that resilience is enhanced by system risk-informed planning, which ensures timely interventions on critical infrastructures; however, temporal and spatial scales are difficult to define for indirect impacts and cascade effects. Perspective research could further improve this work by applying a system-risk analysis to multiple urban infrastructures.

Reference

A Fekete (2019). Critical infrastructure and flood resilience: cascading effects beyond water. Water, 6, e1370.  https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1370

C Arrighi, M Pregnolato, RJ Dawson, F Castelli (2019). Preparedness against mobility disruption by floods. Science of the Total Environment 654, 1010-1022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.191

C Arrighi, M Pregnolato, F Castelli (2020). Indirect flood impacts and cascade risk across interdependent linear infrastructures. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-371

How to cite: Pregnolato, M. and Arrighi, C.: Modelling cascading impacts and risks across linear infrastructure systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2834, 2021.

EGU21-8859 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Towards a reproducible snow load map – an example for Austria

Harald Schellander, Michael Winkler, and Tobias Hell

The European Committee for Standardization provides coarse rules for the estimation of snow load maps for structural design. European countries can apply their own methodologies, resulting in inconsistencies for the 50-year return level of snow load at national borders. Commonly used approaches base on more or less sophisticated interpolation of snow depths with a subsequent assignment of snow density, or spatial extreme value interpolation of snow load measurements.  

We propose a novel methodology for Austria, where snow load observations are not available. It is based on (1) modeling yearly snow load maxima with the specially developed ∆SNOW model, and (2) a generalized additive model, where explaining covariates and their combinations are represented by penalized regression splines, fitted to such derived snow load series. Results show an RMSE of 0.7 kN/m2, and a BIAS of -0.2 kN/m2 over all altitudes, thereby outperforming a smooth spatial extreme value model and the actual Austrian standard, when compared to locally estimated, “quasi-observed “ 50-year snow load maxima at 870 stations in and tightly around Austria.

The new approach requires no zoning and provides a reproducible and transparent approach. Due to the relatively ease of use and snow depth measurements as single prerequisite, the method is applicable in other countries as well. Negative BIASes, that significantly underestimate 50-year snow loads at a small number of stations, are the only objective problem that has to be solved before the new map can be proposed as a successor of the actual Austrian snow load map.

How to cite: Schellander, H., Winkler, M., and Hell, T.: Towards a reproducible snow load map – an example for Austria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8859, 2021.

EGU21-2050 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

A global perspective on the sub-seasonal clustering of precipitation extremes

Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Romppainen-Martius
The occurrence of several precipitation extremes at short time intervals can have major impacts on human societies, leading for instance to persistent flood conditions. Although the sub-seasonal clustering of precipitation extremes has already attracted attention, most studies have focused on catchment or regional scales. Therefore, little is known about its spatial and seasonal distribution. Here, we apply simple statistical metrics based on Ripley’s K function, at a global scale and for each season separately, to identify regions where precipitation extremes to cluster in time over timescales of a few days to a few weeks. We analyze several observational and reanalysis datasets, and compare them to Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 archive. While sub-seasonal temporal clustering is largely concentrated to the tropical oceans, it is also significant seasonally outside the tropics in several regions, like eastern subtropical oceans, southwest Asia or Eastern Africa. We also find that CMIP6 models generally correctly reproduce clustering patterns, paving the way for an assessment of trends in sub-seasonal clustering under climate change.

How to cite: Tuel, A. and Romppainen-Martius, O.: A global perspective on the sub-seasonal clustering of precipitation extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2050, 2021.

EGU21-3428 | vPICO presentations | HS7.5

Paradigm Shift in distribution preferences for Flood Frequency Analysis and the ‘LMoFit’ R-Package

Mohanad Ashraf Zaghloul, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Amin Elshorbagy

Safe and economical design of dams, highways, bridges, and other infrastructures require accurate estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak floods obtained by flood frequency analysis (FFA). The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is the traditional preference for FFA along with other distributions having location, scale, and shape parameters. In this poster, two alternative power-type distributions comprising one location and two shape parameters are explored, these are Burr type III (BrIII) and Burr type XII (BrXII) distributions. The performances of BrIII and BrXII are compared against that of GEV in describing annual maximum streamflow records at 1088 sites across Canada. A generic L-moment algorithm is developed to fit these distributions regardless of the unavailability of some of their analytical L-moment expressions. This algorithm is devised in the R package “LMoFit” on CRAN. The latter comparison shows that: (1) the three distributions perform equally-well in describing the observed peaks; (2) the BrIII and the BrXII distributions predict larger streamflow peaks increasing the heaviness of their right tails compared to that of the GEV distribution; (3) the predictions of the GEV distribution reach the upper limits of the distribution in 39% of the sites, while the corresponding predictions of BrIII and BrXII are not limited and exceed the reached limits of GEV; (4) the GEV distribution might be underestimating the risk of extreme events, especially for large return periods. Accordingly, there are potential limitations in using the GEV distribution for FFA and the findings suggest BrIII and BrXII distributions as consistent alternatives for future FFA practices. The “LMoFit” R package is devised to facilitate the future application of the suggested distributions.

How to cite: Zaghloul, M. A., Papalexiou, S. M., and Elshorbagy, A.: Paradigm Shift in distribution preferences for Flood Frequency Analysis and the ‘LMoFit’ R-Package, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3428, 2021.

HS7.6 – Precipitation and urban hydrology

EGU21-8734 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Utilising Citizen Science Rain Data for Improved Rainfall Estimation in Urban Pluvial Flooding

Tess O'Hara, Geoff Parkin, Hayley Fowler, Elizabeth Lewis, Fergus McClean, and Jake Brown

Did you know there are millions of rain observations from thousands of privately owned automated weather stations located throughout Britain (and beyond) held in a freely accessible online archive? Citizen Scientists are sharing detailed sub-daily weather observations, including from locations where other gauge data is not available, often in close to real-time. There is distinct clustering of rain gauges in British urban areas, and with an anticipated increase in convective storms resulting in localised pluvial flooding, such high-resolution data should not be ignored. The aims of this research are to assess data quality, investigate how access to the data can be made easier, and to explore how the data can be used to support improved flood risk assessment.

British rain observations are presented, spanning 10 years from more than 3000 unique citizen science weather stations via the Met Office WOW archive. These citizen science observations have the potential to fill gaps in the official monitoring network run by the Met Office and agencies responsible for flooding in Britain. Analysis indicates that if the official ground based rain gauge network was interpolated on a 5km grid there would be coverage for 36% of Britain, but if citizen science weather stations were included that figure increases to over 50%. A methodology to identify poor quality observations has been developed; the preliminary findings show that even where absolute values may be inaccurate, citizen science gauges can capture the pattern of extreme rainfall. Examples are shown from work in progress showing how combining citizen science observations with official rain data (radar and ground based gauges) can improve delineation of specific events that resulted in pluvial flooding.

How to cite: O'Hara, T., Parkin, G., Fowler, H., Lewis, E., McClean, F., and Brown, J.: Utilising Citizen Science Rain Data for Improved Rainfall Estimation in Urban Pluvial Flooding, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8734, 2021.

EGU21-14941 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

A dense network of rain gauges within an urban area: Rainfall uncertainty and variability

Luc Neppel, Pierre Marchand, Pascal Finaud-Guyot, Vincent Guinot, and Christian Salles

This study presents a new high density rain gauges network installed in urban area to study spatio-temporal structure and variability of precipitation at small scales. The preliminary results concerning gauges calibration and characterization of the rainfall spatial variability at fine scale are discussed.

In urban areas, the impervious surfaces connected to the drainage system leads to highly dynamic flows. The flood and runoff risk characterization requires  fine spatiotemporal scale to describe hydrological model input data :rainfall within spatial scale of less than 1km and temporal scale close to 1minis necessary for urban hydrological applications and risk assessment. In order to characterize small-scale rainfall spatiotemporal variability, a dense rain gauges network is deployed at Montpellier (France) with inter-gauges distances from 100m to 1km. Currently, 9 tipping bucket rain gauges  associated with 9 anemometers are acquiring rainfall and wind norm intensity every minutes. The network density and extension will be increased soon.

The first year measurements highlight a spatial variability of the 1-minute rainfall at the subkilometer scale. This observed variability is analyzed in view of the measurement uncertainty (gauge calibration, gauge error, bias due to the gauge location) to identify the natural rainfall variability.

This contribution presents the new densely extensive rainfall  network measurement, the typing bucket raingauge calibration and highlights that the observed 1-minute rainfall intensity variability  is significant and cannot be only explained by the measurement uncertainties.

How to cite: Neppel, L., Marchand, P., Finaud-Guyot, P., Guinot, V., and Salles, C.: A dense network of rain gauges within an urban area: Rainfall uncertainty and variability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14941, 2021.

EGU21-1411 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Towards a multi-year urban precipitation climatology at 100 m scale using X-band radar observations

Finn Burgemeister, Marco Clemens, and Felix Ament

An operational, single-polarized X-band weather radar provides measurements in Hamburg’s city center for almost eight years. This weather radar operates at an elevation angle (~3.5°) with a high temporal (30 s), range (60 m), and sampling (1°) resolution resulting in a high information density within the 20 km scan radius. Studies on short time periods (several months) proofs the performance of this low-cost local area weather radar. For example, a case study on a tornado in a rain event demonstrates its refined resolution compared to the German nationwide C-band radars. Now, we aim for a eight-year precipitation climatology with 100 m resolution. This data set will enable reliable studies on urban extreme precipitation. This presentation will describe how we can infer a precipitation estimate based on multi-year weather radar observations in the urban area of Hamburg.

The single-polarization and small wavelength comes along with high resolution but at the same time high uncertainties. We address several sources of errors affecting the radar-based precipitation estimate, like the radar calibration, alignment, attenuation, noise, non-meteorologial echoes, and Z-R relation. The deployment of additional vertically pointing micro rain radars yields drop size distributions at relevant heights reducing errors effectively concerning the radar calibration and required statistical relations (k-Z and Z-R relation). We outline the performance of the correction methods for long time periods and discuss open issues and limitations.

With this high-quality and -resolution weather radar product, refined studies on the spatial and temporal scale of urban precipitation will be possible. This data set will be used for further hydrological research in an urban area within the project Sustainable Adaption Scenarios for Urban Areas – Water from Four Sides of the Cluster of Excellence Climate Climatic Change, and Society (CliCCS).

How to cite: Burgemeister, F., Clemens, M., and Ament, F.: Towards a multi-year urban precipitation climatology at 100 m scale using X-band radar observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1411, 2021.

EGU21-12325 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Measuring urban rainfall with a dense Commercial Microwave Link network in Lagos, Nigeria

Arjan Droste, Aart Overeem, Jan Priebe, Daniele Tricarico, Linda Bogerd, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet

Measuring urban precipitation adds extra difficulty to the already challenging task of quantitative precipitation estimation. Buildings form obstructions that can block ground-based precipitation radar signals, and the complex urban microclimate makes gauge measurements representative for only a very small area. Performing precipitation measurements in an urban setting thus benefits from using many different data sources, to capture the largest possible range of scales. As such, opportunistic sensing techniques are especially valuable for urban hydrometeorological research: the use of unconventional data sources to extract valuable data that can allow us to estimate urban precipitation. One of the more prominent data sources is the use of Commercial Microwave Links –CMLs – to measure rainfall, by making use of the signal attenuation between cell phone towers. This method of estimating rainfall has been mostly tested and applied in developed countries that already have reasonable coverage of conventional precipitation measurements. However, the most benefits are to be made in developing regions lacking such measurement networks. Only few studies address this, generally using relatively small datasets.

This research focuses on tropical CML rainfall estimation in Lagos, Nigeria. This African megacity has a dense network of CMLs and few official measurement stations, making it an interesting area to study the effectiveness of urban CML precipitation measurements in such a region. We employ the open-source R package RAINLINK to obtain 15-min rainfall maps based on data from a few thousand CMLs during the rainy season. We optimise the most important RAINLINK parameters by comparing to rain gauge data, considering local network and environmental conditions. In addition, disdrometer data from Nigeria or similar climates are used to compute the values of the physically-based coefficients relating specific attenuation to rainfall rate.

How to cite: Droste, A., Overeem, A., Priebe, J., Tricarico, D., Bogerd, L., Leijnse, H., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Measuring urban rainfall with a dense Commercial Microwave Link network in Lagos, Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12325, 2021.

EGU21-13664 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

A win-win situation for telecom operators and hydrologists: A proof of concept of providing probabilistic attenuation nowcasting for the telecommunication networks

Jayaram Pudashine, Carlos Velasco-Forero, Mark Curtis, Adrien Guyot, Valentijn R.N. Pauwels, Jeffrey P. Walker, and Alan Seed

A novel proposal to create probabilistic attenuation nowcasting as a by-product from ensembles of rainfall forecasts is presented in this study. These attenuation nowcasts may eventually be used by mobile network operators to dynamically adjust their wireless network operations in advance and during heavy and extreme rainfall events. It may also facilitate mobile network operators to see a direct benefit of widely sharing its received power level data of their backhaul towers for 'opportunistic' rainfall estimation in real-time in urban areas becoming a clear win-win situation for telecom operators and hydrologists. It is proposed here that probabilistic attenuation forecasts can be derived from the ensembles of high-resolution forecast rainfall fields with lead times of 15 to 90 minutes generated from weather radar using the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS). The ensembles of rainfall predictions can be easily converted to attenuation for specific operating frequencies. This study used 109 microwave links ranging from 15 to 40 GHz to verify the results of this probabilistic attenuation forecast. Results suggest that the STEPS-based attenuation forecast was within the narrow span of the 90 percent confidence region for all microwave links tested, with up to 30-minute lead time, and was found to be skilful for lead times of up to 30-45 minutes. 

How to cite: Pudashine, J., Velasco-Forero, C., Curtis, M., Guyot, A., R.N. Pauwels, V., P. Walker, J., and Seed, A.: A win-win situation for telecom operators and hydrologists: A proof of concept of providing probabilistic attenuation nowcasting for the telecommunication networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13664, 2021.

This study investigated the wet deposition of particulate matter (PM) for six precipitation events at Daeyeon dong, Busan, South Korea, from February 2020 to July 2020. The concentration of PM10 in the atmosphere was steadily measured before and after the precipitation. Rainwater samples were collected every 50 mL of each precipitation event using rainwater collecting devices and rainwater qualities (pH, electrical conductivity (EC), water-soluble ions (SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, Ca2+, etc.) were analyzed. For heavy rain events with strong rainfall intensities (>7.5 mm/h), the average PM10 reduction efficiency reached more than 68%. For the relatively weak (<5 mm/h) rainfall intensities, the PM10 reduction efficiencies were less than 40%. In all rainfall events, the average rainwater pH gradually increased over time from 4.3 to 5.0, while the average EC decreased from 81.9 to 12.1 µS/cm. The concentrations of all ions in the rainwater samples gradually decreased during precipitation. For heavy rain events, the acidity, EC, and concentrations of total water-soluble ions of initial rainwater samples were higher than those of later samples. This result indicates that the concentration of PM10 in the atmosphere was reduced by wet deposition.

How to cite: Park, H. and Yang, M.: Variation of the concentration of particulate matter in the atmosphere and rainwater quality during precipitation at an urban site of southeast Korea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3760, 2021.

This study investigates the effect of meteorological factors on the concentration of PM10 (particulate matter 10) in the atmosphere and evaluates the variation of chemical quality in rainwater using correlation analysis at Daeyeon dong, Busan, South Korea. The real-time concentration of PM10 in the atmosphere was measured automatically during eleven rainfall events with a custom-built PM10 sensor node. The 183 rainfall samples were analyzed for chemical quality (pH and electrical conductivity (EC)). The values of meteorological factors (humidity, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, cumulative rainfall, and rainfall intensity) were obtained from an automatic weather system (AWS) in Nam-gu, Busan. Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were performed to identify relationships among PM10 concentrations, meteorological factors, and chemical quality in rainwater. Cumulative rainfall and rainfall intensity had negative correlations with the concentration of PM10 (r =  −0.52, and −0.35), and other meteorological factors were shown no correlation with the concentration of PM10. When the rainfall intensity was strong (> 5 mm/h), the concentration of PM10 showed a negative correlation with the cumulative rainfall (r = −0.55) and pH (r = −0.7). However, for the weak rainfall intensity (< 5 mm/h), there was no correlation between the PM10 concentration with cumulative rainfall and pH. The results of this study provide an understanding of the interaction between PM10 concentrations and hydro-meteorological factors and can be used as a decision tool to evaluate the relative magnitude of PM10 reduction resulting from various rainfall types.

How to cite: Kim, T. and Yang, M.: Correlation Analysis among Meteorological Factors and PM10 Concentrations in the Atmosphere and Rainwater Quality using Multivariate Methods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3761, 2021.

EGU21-8557 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

pyBL: An open source Python package for stochastic high-resolution rainfall modelling based upon a Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse model

Li-Pen Wang, Ting-Yu Dai, Yun-Ting He, Ching-Chun Chou, and Christian Onof

Stochastic rainfall modelling is an increasingly popular technique used by the water and weather risk industries. It can be used to synthesise sufficiently long rainfall time series to support hydrological applications (such as sewer system design) or weather-related risk analysis (such as excess rainfall insurance product design). The Bartlett-Lewis (BL) rectangular pulse model is a type of stochastic model that represents rainfall using a Poisson cluster point process. It is calibrated with standard statistical properties of rainfall data (e.g. mean, coefficient of variation, skewness and auto-correlation and so on), but it can well preserve extreme statistics of rainfall at multiple timescales simultaneously. In addition, it is found to be less sensitive to observational data length than the existing rainfall frequency analysis methods based upon, for example, annual maxima time series, so it provides an alternative to rainfall extremes analysis when long rainfall datasets are not available. 

In this work, we would like to introduce an open source Python package for a BL model: pyBL, implemented based upon the state-of-the-art BL model developed in Onof and Wang (2020). In the pyBL package, the BL model is separated into three main modules. These are statistical properties calculation, BL model calibration and model sampling (i.e. simulation) modules. The statistical properties calculation module processes the input rainfall data and calculates its standard statistical properties at given timescales. The BL model calibration module conducts the model fitting based upon the re-derived BL equations given in Onof and Wang (2020). A numerical solver, based upon Dual Annealing optimization and Nelder-Mead local minimization techniques, is implemented to ensure the efficiency as well as to prevent from being drawn to local optima during the solving process. Finally, one can use the sampling module to generate stochastically rainfall time series at a given timescale and for any required data length, based upon a calibrated BL model.

The design of the pyBL is highly modularized, and the standard CSV data format is used for file exchange between modules. Users could easily incorporate given modules into their existing applications. In addition, a team, consisting of researchers from National Taiwan University and Imperial College London, will consistently implement the new breakthroughs in BL model to the package, so users will have access to the latest developments. The package is now undergoing the final quality check and will be available on Github (https://github.com/NTU-CompHydroMet-Lab/pyBL) in due course. 

How to cite: Wang, L.-P., Dai, T.-Y., He, Y.-T., Chou, C.-C., and Onof, C.: pyBL: An open source Python package for stochastic high-resolution rainfall modelling based upon a Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8557, 2021.

EGU21-9171 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Disaggregation of Daily Rainfall into Hourly Rainfall in an Ungauged Urban Catchment

Ashutosh Pati, Ravindra Kale, and Bhabagrahi Sahoo

Nowadays, most of the urban cities and their surrounding ambiances are facing increasing flooding issues. Many times, the cause of urban flooding is improper drainage under increasing rainfall intensity. To properly monitor and manage the drainage system in urban areas, high-resolution rainfall data is required to model the flooding scenarios a priori. However, the high-resolution rainfall data in urban regions to address the urban flooding issues are rarely available, especially in developing countries. To overcome this problem, many studies suggest the use of hourly scale IMERG-FR (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM-Final Run) data which exhibits good agreement with the ground-truth rainfall measurements. Therefore, this study attempts to utilize area-averaged IMERG-FR hourly data over Bhubaneswar, a data-scarce urban area of eastern India as a benchmark for assessing the performance of six parametric (Bartlett-Lewis Model, BL) and a nonparametric (Method of Fragments, MOF) approaches disaggregating daily scale IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall data into hourly scale data. The performance of the considered approaches is evaluated by disaggregating the monsoon months (June-October) rainfall timeseries data for the period 2001-2015 by adopting performance criteria such as root mean square error (RMSE) and percent bias (PBIAS). The rainfall time series data from 2001-2010 and 2011-2015 were used for calibration and validation of the proposed approaches, respectively.

The obtained RMSE values in the case of the BL approach during calibration and validation period were 2.53 mm and 2.04 mm, respectively. Similarly, RMSE values in the case of the MOF approach during the calibration and validation period were 2.5 mm and 1.87 mm, respectively. This comparison suggests the both of these approaches exhibit nearly the same performance during the calibration period whereas the MOF approach was slightly better than BL during the validation period. The PBIAS estimates for the MOF approach were around -6.6% and 17.3% during the calibration and validation period, respectively, whereas the PBIAS estimates for the BL approach were around 11.25% for calibration and -11.25% for the validation period. From the present evaluation, it could be concluded that though the MOF approach exhibits slightly better performance in terms of RMSE, the BL approach can provide a more balanced performance in terms of PBIAS. As the MOF is a non-parametric approach, it can be applied to a lesser length of daily rainfall time series for disaggregation whereas the BL approach can perform well when its parameters are derived using a good length of rainfall series. Conclusively, this study summarizes the applicability of the BL and MOF approaches for disaggregating course resolution daily scale rainfall to hourly rainfall for the monsoon months in Bhubaneswar using IMERG-FR hourly rainfall data as a benchmark.

Keywords: Rainfall; Rainfall disaggregation; Bartlett-Lewis Model (BL); Method of Fragments (MOF); IMERG-FR; IMD.

How to cite: Pati, A., Kale, R., and Sahoo, B.: Disaggregation of Daily Rainfall into Hourly Rainfall in an Ungauged Urban Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9171, 2021.

EGU21-14570 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Temporal disaggregation of daily rainfall data in SuDS design: a case study in Tuscany

Matteo Pampaloni, Alvaro Sordo Ward, Paola Bianucci, Ivan Gabriel Martin, Luis Garrote, and Enrica Caporali

Sustainable urban Drainage Systems (SuDS), by themselves or combined with grey traditional infrastructures, help to diminish the runoff volume and peak flow, as well as to improve the water quality. Hydrological design of SuDS is usually based on rainfall volumetric percentiles as the number of rainfall events, Nx, or the accumulated volume of the rainfall series, Vx, to be managed. Sub-index x refers to common qualities used in SuDS design, like 80, 85, 90 and 95%. Usually, only daily rainfall data are available. Nevertheless, due to the characteristics of the urban watershed involved in the SuDS implementation, the quantification of design parameters for these facilities needs sub-hourly rainfall time series. To overcome this issue, a temporal disaggregation methodology was proposed based on the use of a stochastic rainfall generator model (RainSim V3). We analysed the case of Florence University rain gauge (Tuscany, Italy), by collecting 20 years (in the period from 1998 to 2018) of observed data at 15 minutes time step. First, we verified the ability of RainSim model to reproduce observed rainfall patterns at 15 minutes time-step. The parameters of the stochastic model were estimated using observed data with 24 hours time-step. We generated 100 series of 20 years each with a time step of 15 minutes. We accounted two variables to implement the storm events extraction: a) the Minimum Inter-event Time (MIT) between storm events; 2) the storm volume threshold. We obtained a better characterization of the rainfall regime by applying the temporal disaggregation methodology than using daily-observed data. Second, we compared the SuDS design parameters Nx and Vx, obtained by using the stochastically generated rainfall, the observed daily and 15 minutes data. Moreover, the effect of different MITs and different thresholds on Nx and Vx were evaluated. In all the cases, results show that Nx and Vx obtained with the median of the simulated series were closer to the actual observed parameters based on 15 minutes time step than the ones calculated with the observed daily data. Therefore, the proposed temporal disaggregation method arises as an efficient technique to overcome the lack of sub-hourly rainfall data, necessary to adequately design SuDS.

How to cite: Pampaloni, M., Sordo Ward, A., Bianucci, P., Gabriel Martin, I., Garrote, L., and Caporali, E.: Temporal disaggregation of daily rainfall data in SuDS design: a case study in Tuscany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14570, 2021.

EGU21-9705 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Measuring urban resilience to flooding under climate change

Roberta Padulano, Guido Rianna, Pierfranco Costabile, Carmelina Costanzo, Giuseppe Del Giudice, and Paola Mercogliano

Flooding is one of the most challenging weather-induced risks in urban areas, due both to the typically high exposures in terms of people, buildings, and infrastructures, and to the uncertainties lying in the modelling of the involved physical processes. The modelling of urban flooding is usually performed by means of different strategies in accordance with the specific purpose of the analysis, ranging from detailed simulations, requiring large modelling and computational efforts, and typically adopted for design purposes, to simplified evaluations, particularly feasible for scenario analyses, when a large number of simulations is required perturbing one or more input parameters.

According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, intensity of precipitation events could be greatly impacted by the expected climate change primarily due to the increase in temperature, entailing an increase in the atmospheric moisture retention capability. However, the effect of climate change on the rainfall regime of local areas is not straightforward, but deeply depends on local features such as latitude, topography, distance from the coast. Over Europe, an ensemble of climate simulations coming from the application of different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (able to perform a dynamical downscaling of General Circulation Models, GCMs, available at the global scale) is freely available within the EURO-CORDEX initiative, which is the current standard for climate change analysis over EU countries. The spatial resolution of EURO-CORDEX simulations (about 12km) is too coarse to be directly used in local impact analyses; in this case, bias corrections are usually performed using local rainfall observations, to adjust climate simulation results to the local rainfall regime. The availability of multiple climate projections coming from different Climate Simulation Chains (in other words, different RCM/GCM couplings) allows to quantify the uncertainty in climate modelling, that should be accounted for in impact analyses.

In the present work, an approach is proposed that aims to quantify the uncertainty caused by the use of an ensemble of climate projections on urban flood modelling, taking a limited area within the City of Naples (Italy) as test case. The specific purpose is that of understanding the resilience of the area with respect to any variation in rainfall intensity such as those possibly caused by climate change, building on 19 climate projections available within the EURO-CORDEX initiative and bias-corrected to make them suitable to be used for impact analyses at the local scale. The concept of resilience is expressed by a selection of indicators considered useful both in the framework of classical hazard analysis and for transport network, considered a strategic service for the test case. Urban flood modelling is undertaken by using two different numerical codes characterized by two different levels of complexity. In this way, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the computational costs that are actually needed, in terms of input data and resources, when integrating uncertainties due to climate projections in urban flood modelling for multi-purpose analyses.

How to cite: Padulano, R., Rianna, G., Costabile, P., Costanzo, C., Del Giudice, G., and Mercogliano, P.: Measuring urban resilience to flooding under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9705, 2021.

Most 1D-2D urban drainage models simplify the water exchange process between the ground surface and the underground sewer network. They assume that surface runoff enters directly into the sewer network without modelling the initial overland flow. Moreover, surface flooding is only seen as the result of sewer network overflows, neglecting that it can also occur due to limitations of street inlets draining capacity. In fact, it is a common practice to ignore street inlets and to assume that water exchange occurs exclusively through manholes, which in reality, can have water transfers (sewer overflow) only after the displacement of their covers. These simplifications, do not allow to determine which water exchange processes have a greater impact in the occurrence of surface flooding.

This study developed a more realistic model representation of the urban drainage system (including street inlets and initial overland flow) and carried out a thorough sensitivity analysis of the parameters controlling water exchange processes. A combination of Latin-Hypercube (LH) and One-factor-At-a-Time (OAT) sampling techniques were used to measure global and local sensitivities. Brederode neighborhood in Antwerp (Belgium), a flat area that frequently suffers from pluvial flooding, was used as a study case. Results show that the inclusion of street inlets reduces the calculated total surface flood volume in simulations with design storms ranging from low to high return periods (T5-T100). It was also found that parameters controlling surface drainage are the most sensitive, with the street inlets clogging coefficient obtaining the highest sensitivity index value. Parameters controlling reverse flow showed almost null sensitivity.

Given that the draining processes are most sensitive (particularly street inlets clogging) to the occurrence of surface flooding, urban drainage models should explicitly include manholes and street inlets in their configuration. Moreover, it is recommended to apply rainfall directly on 2D mesh elements representing streets and open areas (for runoff produced on rooftops, use sub-catchment units). In this way, models can account for initial overland flow and properly assess the street inlets' drainage capacity.

How to cite: González, A. and Willems, P.: Urban flood modelling and sensitivity analysis: water exchange between the ground surface and the underground sewer network, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1812, 2021.

The megacity of Lagos, Nigeria, is subject to recurrent severe flood events as a consequence of extreme rainfall. In addition, climate change might exacerbate this problem by increasing rainfall intensities. To study the hazard of pluvial flooding in urban areas, several complex hydraulic models exist with a high demand in terms of required input data, manual preprocessing, and computational power. However, for many regions in the world only insufficient local information is available. Moreover, the complexity of model setup prevents reproducible model initialisation and application. This conference contribution addresses these issues by an example application of the complex hydrodynamic model TELEMAC-2D for the city of Lagos. The complex initialisation procedure is simplified by the new package ‘telemac’ for the statistical environment R. A workflow will be presented that illustrates the functionality of the package and the use of publicly available information, such as free DEMs and Openstreetmap data to cope with the problem of insufficient local information. By further analysis and visualisation procedures along the workflow the increasing hazard of pluvial flooding for Lagos is shown. The workflow makes model initialisation, application, and the analysis of results reproducible and applicable to other regions with a relatively low need for manual user interventions and without additional software other than R and TELEMAC-2D.

How to cite: Pilz, T.: Towards reproducible pluvial flood simulation in urban areas with TELEMAC-2D, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5165, 2021.

EGU21-12004 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Comparing urban sub-catchment delineation approaches for dynamic hydrological modelling

Yannick Back, Fabian Funke, Peter Marcus Bach, Joao Paulo Leitao, Wolfgang Rauch, and Manfred Kleidorfer

In the face of rapid urban and population growth and with climate change altering precipitation patterns, urban water management is becoming increasingly demanding. Numerous software, tools and approaches to study urban water flow behaviour and model hydrological processes exist. However, the understanding of water movement in urban areas, especially during extreme events, and the physical principles behind them, as well as the interaction between the natural and the urban hydrological cycle is still incomplete. For decades, models suited for urban hydrological analysis greatly impacted the improvement of flood protection, public health and environmental protection, changing the way we look at urban water and stormwater management. In order to calculate accurate quantities of runoff in any rainfall/runoff model, information about urban sub-catchment characteristics plays an important role. Size, shape, topography, as well as land use influencing infiltration rates and evapotranspiration, are of great importance to calculate accurate runoff quantities on the urban scale. New implementations to reduce runoff towards the sewer system, such as decentralised stormwater techniques, increase the urgent need for accurate and high-resolution local/neighbourhood-scale information. Spatial and temporal developments require water management models to be connected with GIS (Geographical Information Systems). Initially not being developed to interact with each other, multiple approaches exist to combine GIS with water management models. Nevertheless, defining urban sub-catchments for rainfall-runoff modelling is often still performed manually using specific maps or using simple surface partitioning algorithms such as the Thiessen polygons. A significant disadvantage in generating urban sub-catchments manually is the fact that natural surface inclination is usually not considered, influencing the size and shape of the delineated sub-catchments. So far, only a few studies have devoted attention to improving the way urban sub-catchments are delineated and the information about their surface characteristics is generated. This study evaluates a GIS-based approach to automatically delineate urban sub-catchments accounting for the location of nodes (actual manholes or drain inlets) as sub-catchment outlets. In order to compare the influence of the sub-catchment delineation methods (1 to 3), we use (1) a digital surface model (DSM) and (2) a digital elevation model (DEM) to automatically delineate the urban sub-catchments and compare these two methods with each other as well as with (3) already manually derived sub-catchments of a specific case study. Furthermore, we compare hydraulic simulation results from the software SWMM with measured flow data to infer the most accurate sub-catchment delineation method.

How to cite: Back, Y., Funke, F., Bach, P. M., Leitao, J. P., Rauch, W., and Kleidorfer, M.: Comparing urban sub-catchment delineation approaches for dynamic hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12004, 2021.

EGU21-15645 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

A two-stage analogue model for real-time urban flood forecasting

Chris Onof, Yuting Chen, Li-Pen Wang, Amy Jones, and Susana Ochoa Rodriguez

In this work a two-stage (rainfall nowcasting + flood prediction) analogue model for real-time urban flood forecasting is presented. The proposed approach accounts for the complexities of urban rainfall nowcasting while avoiding the expensive computational requirements of real-time urban flood forecasting.

The model has two consecutive stages:

  • (1) Rainfall nowcasting: 0-6h lead time ensemble rainfall nowcasting is achieved by means of an analogue method, based on the assumption that similar climate condition will define similar patterns of temporal evolution of the rainfall. The framework uses the NORA analogue-based forecasting tool (Panziera et al., 2011), consisting of two layers. In the first layer, the 120 historical atmospheric (forcing) conditions most similar to the current atmospheric conditions are extracted, with the historical database consisting of ERA5 reanalysis data from the ECMWF and the current conditions derived from the US Global Forecasting System (GFS). In the second layer, twelve historical radar images most similar to the current one are extracted from amongst the historical radar images linked to the aforementioned 120 forcing analogues. Lastly, for each of the twelve analogues, the rainfall fields (at resolution of 1km/5min) observed after the present time are taken as one ensemble member. Note that principal component analysis (PCA) and uncorrelated multilinear PCA methods were tested for image feature extraction prior to applying the nearest neighbour technique for analogue selection.
  • (2) Flood prediction: we predict flood extent using the high-resolution rainfall forecast from Stage 1, along with a database of pre-run flood maps at 1x1 km2 solution from 157 catalogued historical flood events. A deterministic flood prediction is obtained by using the averaged response from the twelve flood maps associated to the twelve ensemble rainfall nowcasts, where for each gridded area the median value is adopted (assuming flood maps are equiprobabilistic). A probabilistic flood prediction is obtained by generating a quantile-based flood map. Note that the flood maps were generated through rolling ball-based mapping of the flood volumes predicted at each node of the InfoWorks ICM sewer model of the pilot area.

The Minworth catchment in the UK (~400 km2) was used to demonstrate the proposed model. Cross‑assessment was undertaken for each of 157 flooding events by leaving one event out from training in each iteration and using it for evaluation. With a focus on the spatial replication of flood/non-flood patterns, the predicted flood maps were converted to binary (flood/non-flood) maps. Quantitative assessment was undertaken by means of a contingency table. An average accuracy rate (i.e. proportion of correct predictions, out of all test events) of 71.4% was achieved, with individual accuracy rates ranging from 57.1% to 78.6%). Further testing is needed to confirm initial findings and flood mapping refinement will be pursued.

The proposed model is fast, easy and relatively inexpensive to operate, making it suitable for direct use by local authorities who often lack the expertise on and/or capabilities for flood modelling and forecasting.

References: Panziera et al. 2011. NORA–Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 137, 2106-2123.

How to cite: Onof, C., Chen, Y., Wang, L.-P., Jones, A., and Ochoa Rodriguez, S.: A two-stage analogue model for real-time urban flood forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15645, 2021.

EGU21-16002 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Nowcasting for urban flash floods in Africa: a machine-learning and satellite-observation based model

Dorien Lugt, Mattijn van Hoek, Jan Fokke Meirink, and Eva van der Kooij

On the world’s fastest urbanizing continent, Africa, urban floods are a real and growing problem. Early warning is the first important step in flood risk management. This requires continuous and reliable precipitation measurements and forecasts, which are not always available in African cities.

In this study a nowcasting model based on Convolutional Neural Network (TrajGRU) was developed for short-term, 0-2 hours, precipitation forecast in Ghana, West Africa. The nowcasting model is trained on historical rainfall estimates derived from the MSG-SEVIRI instrument by the Nighttime Infrared Precipitation Estimation (NIPE) model. Input for the model are real-time NIPE MSG-SEVIRI estimates.

The Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) SEVIRI instrument provides high-resolution and short-latency data, covering Europa and Africa. Especially in areas without radar observations, MSG offers unique and relevant information for early warning with respect to fast occurring events such as urban flash floods. Its resolution allows for the retrieval of convective rainfall, often a cause of flash floods in tropical areas.

To assess the performance of the model, we compare our method to current state-of-the-art Lagrangian nowcasting system from the pySTEPS library applied to the NIPE-MSG-SEVIRI data.

The result is an operationally running model for nowcasting two hours ahead with 15 minutes temporal and approximately three kilometer in Ghana (rainsat.net). The method is readily applicable in other regions in Africa.

How to cite: Lugt, D., van Hoek, M., Meirink, J. F., and van der Kooij, E.: Nowcasting for urban flash floods in Africa: a machine-learning and satellite-observation based model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16002, 2021.

EGU21-14547 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Understanding urban hydrology through measurements of infiltration capacity of permeable pavements under real-live circumstances

Ted Veldkamp, Floris Boogaard, Rutger de Graaf, and Jeroen Kluck

Over the past decades various types of permeable pavements have been implemented in different municipalities in the Netherlands in order to improve infiltration capacity in urban areas and therewith being able to better treat stormwater runoff. With initial promising results this adaptation measure seemed to be the solution for urban flooding due to extreme precipitation. However, in practice, foreseen infiltration capacities were usually not met, often due unknown reasons.

To better understand the functioning of permeable pavements in practice, we have studied - as part of the project Infiltrating Cities - over 100 existing permeable pavement installations in the Netherlands. At each location, infiltration capacity was tested through a full-scale infiltration testing procedure (flooded area about 40 m2) while conditional on-site factors were collected (location, age, type of permeable pavement, street-type, traffic density, vicinity of urban green, regular maintenance regime, etc.). By coupling this information we analyzed how these factors influence the infiltration capacity of permeable pavements in practice, e.g. through accelerated deterioration of infiltration capacity through time. In addition, we evaluated for a selected number of installations, how various types of maintenance may counteract this deterioration, hence improving the infiltration capacity of permeable pavements.

Most of he studied permeable pavements function, with an average infiltration capacity of 540 mm/hour, above Dutch and international standards. However, the observed variation in measured infiltration capacity is high (35 mm/hour – 5707 mm/hour) and cannot alone be explained by differences in age of the permeable pavement installations studied. Our analysis shows that also the deterioration-rate of the measured infiltration capacity, with an average of 74 mm/hour per year, varies substantially among installations, caused by factors like the vicinity of urban green, traffic density, and maintenance regime. The results have been compared to international studies finding similar conclusions about infiltration capacity and dominant factors, but little information is available of the effect of maintenance to recover the initial infiltration capacity. Evaluating the infiltration capacity after the application of various maintenance techniques shows us that applying the right maintenance regime to permeable pavements may improve infiltration capacity with an average of 380 percent. Especially in the case of under-performing permeable pavements this may be the key to improving the functioning and lifetime of permeable pavements in practice.  

Our results can be used to improve model representations of urban hydrological processes, give insights in potential adaptation strategies to deal with challenges related to (extreme) precipitation, and provide guidelines to city design in the light of climate change and rapid urbanization. Hence, various disciplines and user-groups can benefit from our outcomes: From the hydrological scientists aiming at improving the representation of urban hydrological processes in models order to better understand and predict how (extreme) precipitation may lead to urban flooding – now and in the future; to the urban water managers who are about to decide on the optimal strategy to deal with extreme precipitation and minimize urban flooding; and finally, to the urban designers that are developing resilient designs for future-proof cities.

How to cite: Veldkamp, T., Boogaard, F., de Graaf, R., and Kluck, J.: Understanding urban hydrology through measurements of infiltration capacity of permeable pavements under real-live circumstances, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14547, 2021.

EGU21-12987 | vPICO presentations | HS7.6

Analyzing the performance of a rain garden over 15 years 

Achira Amur, Bridget Wadzuk, and Robert Traver

The Bioinfiltration Traffic Island (BTI) is a bioinfiltration rain garden that was retrofitted off an existing traffic island located at Villanova University, USA in 2001. Having been monitored since 2003, the BTI has quantitative hydrological data collected for the approximately two decades, making it a very valuable dataset for an in-depth analysis of the performance of the site.

The initial analysis comprises of a high-resolution analysis of rainfall event frequency along with resulting performance at the bioinfiltration rain garden. All rainfall events within the 15 years of collected data was discretized in to 2.5 mm, 2-hour bins. The binned rain events were then analyzed using a mass balance approach to understand how the different hydrological elements contribute to the ability of the site to treat incoming stormwater runoff. The second part of the analysis focuses on assessing the intensities of each of the recorded storms to understand its influence on the performance of the rain garden.

The third part of this analysis will comprise of studying the site’s ability to manage incoming runoff with the rain garden’s development over the fifteen years. The main focus will be to assess the performance of the site in the earlier stages and compare it to the performance seen in the latter stages with established vegetation. The binned rainfall events will be used to compare the performance of the BTI for storms with similar characteristics (similar precipitation amount and event duration) occurring in different stages of the timeline. The extensive dataset will additionally give insight to internal mechanisms such as evapotranspiration and infiltration occurring at the site and indicate how their contribution changes with the evolution of the site.

The overall analysis provides lessons into system components and aims to understand the interaction of the different hydrological elements within the rain garden. The objective is to use the findings in designing Green Infrastructure systems that can be optimized in their ability to manage incoming stormwater.

How to cite: Amur, A., Wadzuk, B., and Traver, R.: Analyzing the performance of a rain garden over 15 years , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12987, 2021.

HS7.7 – Hydrometeorologic stochastics for hydrologic applications: extremes, scales, probabilities

The potential for changes in hydrometeorological extremes is routinely investigated by fitting change-permitting extreme value models to long-term observations, allowing one or more distribution parameters to change as a function of time or some physically-motivated covariate. In most practical extreme value analyses, the main quantity of interest though is the upper quantiles of the distribution, rather than the parameters' values. This study focuses on the changes in quantile estimates under different change-permitting models. First, metrics which measure the impact of changes in parameters on changes in quantiles are introduced. The mathematical structure of these change metrics is investigated for several models based on the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. It is shown that for the most commonly used models, the predicted changes in the quantiles are a non-intuitive function of the distribution parameters, leading to results which are difficult to interpret. Next, it is posited that commonly used change-permitting GEV models do not preserve a constant coefficient of variation, a property that is typically assumed to hold and that is related to the scaling properties of extremes. To address these shortcomings a new (parsimonious) model is proposed: the model assumes a constant coefficient of variation, allowing the location and scale parameters to change simultaneously. The proposed model results in more interpretable changes in the quantile function. The consequences of the different modelling choices on quantile estimates are exemplified using a dataset of extreme peak river flow measurements.

How to cite: Prosdocimi, I. and Kjeldsen, T.: Understanding change in hydrometeorological extremes with statistical models - the importance of model parametrization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1071, 2021.

EGU21-3650 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

Non-stationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation over Monsoon Asia – Role of Teleconnection Time Lags 

Meghana Nagaraj, Srinivasan Kasturirengan, Jency Maria Sojan, and Roshan Srivastav

Extreme precipitation events are increasing due to climate change and leading to frequent flooding and severe droughts. These events vary in both space and time and are positively correlated with the climate teleconnections representing the oscillations of the ocean-atmospheric system. However, large numbers of climate signals and the precipitation response may vary at certain time lags with each climate indices. This study identifies time lags for climate indices using cross-correlation analysis between extreme precipitation and climate indices. These time-lagged climate indices are used as a covariate to fit a non-stationary generalized extreme value (NS-GEV) model over Monsoon Asia. The best NS-GEV model among non-stationary models is selected based on Akaike information criteria (AICc). Results show that the correlation between precipitation and different climate indices is spatially non-uniform. Incorporating time lag climate indices as covariate improves the performance of the non-stationary models. This study helps in understanding the teleconnections influencing the variation of extreme precipitation in a non-stationary framework and to revise the infrastructure designs and flood risk assessment.

How to cite: Nagaraj, M., Kasturirengan, S., Maria Sojan, J., and Srivastav, R.: Non-stationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation over Monsoon Asia – Role of Teleconnection Time Lags , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3650, 2021.

EGU21-389 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

PythOm: A python toolbox implementing recent advances in rainfall intensity (ombrian) curves

Theano Iliopoulou and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Curves of rainfall intensity at various scales and for various return periods, else known as ombrian (or IDF) curves, are central design tools in hydrology and engineering. Construction of such curves often relies heavily on empirical or semi-empirical approaches, which hinder their applicability over large scales, and preclude simulation. Recent work by Koutsoyiannis (2020) has advanced these curves to theoretically-consistent stochastic models of rainfall intensity (ombrian models) extending their applicability to the full range of available scales, e.g. from minutes to decades. We present an open-source python toolbox implementing these advances in a straightforward and user-friendly manner and prove its applicability. The toolbox also employs advanced statistical fitting methods for extremes (K-moments), accounts for bias induced by temporal dependence, and allows optional blending of daily-scale data to reduce uncertainty of sub-daily records. The end result is the parameterization of the ombrian model and the graphical representation of rainfall intensity for any range of scales (supported by the data) and return periods.

Reference: Koutsoyiannis, D. 2020. ‘Rainfall extremes and Ombrian modelling’ in Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk (ed 0), National Technical University of Athens, Athens, pp 243-273, http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/2000/.

How to cite: Iliopoulou, T. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: PythOm: A python toolbox implementing recent advances in rainfall intensity (ombrian) curves, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-389, 2021.

EGU21-7562 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

An Extended Model in Estimating Consistent Quantiles for Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Felix Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, Uwe Ulbrich, and Henning W. Rust

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves describe the main statistical characteristics of extreme precipitation events. Providing information on the exceedance probability or return period of certain precipitation intensities for a range of durations, IDF curves are an important tool for the design of hydrological structures.

Although the Generalized-Extreme-Value (GEV) distribution is an adequate model for annual precipitation maxima of a certain duration, the core problem of extreme value statistics remains: the limited data availability. Hence, it is reasonable to use a model that can describe all durations simultaneously. This reduces the total number of parameters and a more efficient usage of data is achieved. The idea of implementing a duration dependence directly into the parameters of the extreme value distribution and therefore obtaining a single distribution for a range of durations was proposed by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998). However, while the use of the GEV is justified by a strong theoretical basis, only empirical models exist for the dependence of the parameters on duration.

In this study, we compare different models regarding the dependence of the GEV parameters on duration with the aim of finding a model for a wide duration range (1 min - 5 days). We use a combination of existing model features, especially curvature for small durations and multi-scaling for all durations, and extend them by a new feature that allows flattening of the IDF curves for long durations. Using the quantile score in a cross-validation setting, we provide detailed information on the duration and probability ranges for which specific features or a systematic combination of features lead to improved modeling skill.

Our results show that allowing curvature or multi-scaling improves the model only for very short or long durations, respectively, but leads to disadvantages in modeling the other duration ranges. In contrast, allowing flattening of the IDF curves leads to an improvement for medium durations between 1 hour and 1 day without affecting other duration regimes.

How to cite: Fauer, F., Ulrich, J., Jurado, O. E., Ulbrich, U., and Rust, H. W.: An Extended Model in Estimating Consistent Quantiles for Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7562, 2021.

EGU21-8961 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

Joint Distribution of Rainfall Characteristics: Intensity, Total Depth, Spatial and Temporal Moments

Roberto Quaglia, Ross Woods, and Dawei Han

Determination of peak flow or flow hydrograph in ungauged basins can be affected by considerable degree of uncertainty. Despite the considerable efforts to overcome this challenge, current methods provide design flood estimates that are still highly uncertain in ungauged catchments, even in the UK where the gauged network is relatively dense. A possible solution may be found in stochastic approaches and more specifically in the Derived Flood Frequency method, which gives the possibility to decompose runoff response effects dictated by the dominant hydrological processes for a catchment under study. Data scarcity can be then circumvented by application of UK-specific stochastic models, from which rainfall events and their relevant features are sampled. In this work, the latter rainfall model will be presented as a joint distribution function of spatial and temporal moments of catchment rainfall, along with their Intensity and Total Depth. The marginal distributions for each rainfall characteristic are studied through the L-moment method, which was previously developed for regional frequency analysis. The multivariate distribution of these rainfall characteristics will be described through the Vine Copula method, which can account for dependence very flexibly among several variables. Parameterisation procedures still require more development to allow application over ungauged case of studies.

How to cite: Quaglia, R., Woods, R., and Han, D.: Joint Distribution of Rainfall Characteristics: Intensity, Total Depth, Spatial and Temporal Moments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8961, 2021.

To estimate return levels of wave heights (Hs) induced by tropical cyclones at the coast, a commonly-used approach is to (1) randomly generate a large number of synthetic cyclone events (typically >1,000); (2) numerically simulate the corresponding Hs over the whole domain of interest; (3) extract the Hs values at the desired location at the coast and (4) perform the local extreme value analysis (EVA) to derive the corresponding return level. Step 2 is however very constraining because it often involves a numerical hydrodynamic simulator that can be prohibitive to run: this might limit the number of results to perform the local EVA (typically to several hundreds). In this communication, we propose a spatial stochastic simulation procedure to increase the database size of numerical results with synthetic maps of Hs that are stochastically generated. To do so, we propose to rely on a data-driven dimensionality-reduction method, either unsupervised (Principal Component Analysis) or supervised (Partial Least Squares Regression), that is trained with a limited number of pre-existing numerically simulated Hs maps. The procedure is applied to the Guadeloupe island and results are compared to the commonly-used approach applied to a large database of Hs values computed for nearly 2,000 synthetic cyclones (representative of 3,200 years – Krien et al., NHESS, 2015). When using only a hundred of cyclones, we show that the estimates of the 100-year return levels can be achieved with a mean absolute percentage error (derived from a bootstrap-based procedure) ranging between 5 and 15% around the coasts while keeping the width of the 95% confidence interval of the same order of magnitude than the one using the full database. Without synthetic Hs maps augmentation, the error and confidence interval width are both increased by nearly 100%. A careful attention is paid to the tuning of the approach by testing the sensitivity to the spatial domain size, the information loss due to data compression, and the number of cyclones. This study has been carried within the Carib-Coast INTERREG project (https://www.interreg-caraibes.fr/carib-coast).

How to cite: Rohmer, J., Pedreros, R., and Krien, Y.: Spatial stochastic simulation to aid local extreme value analysis of cyclone-induced wave heights when numerical hydrodynamic simulations are scarce, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2081, 2021.

EGU21-5040 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

Hydrological modeling in data sparse environments

Faizan Anwar, András Bárdossy, and Jochen Seidel

We demonstrate that in data sparse environments, model parameter uncertainty is not the only cause of concern. To get a meaningful outcome, input data uncertainty has to be taken into account as well. The procedure involved calibration of a hydrological model using recent daily data rich time period along with validation. A historical flood was simulated (after warmup) for which the input data were relatively sparse in space, namely precipitation and temperature, using the calibrated model parameters. Precipitation was assumed to be the main driver of this event. Results showed that by only using interpolated precipitation (e.g. IDW or Kriging), the magnitude and timing of the peak were incorrect, even after using very many different parameter vectors that performed equally well for the recent times. Subsequently, the model was inverted for precipitation i.e. input fields that produced the correct timing, magnitude, dependence in space and distributions were searched for. This was done using a previously developed simulation algorithm. The new fields showed that the same hydrograph could have been produced by two main types of conditions, namely, early snow cover that melted and heavy rain. The plausibility of the simulated fields was also assessed by comparing their structure in space to events in recent times.

How to cite: Anwar, F., Bárdossy, A., and Seidel, J.: Hydrological modeling in data sparse environments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5040, 2021.

EGU21-2682 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

Investigating rainfall and catchment attributes promoting heavy-tailed distributions of river flows

Hsing-Jui Wang, Soohyun Yang, Ralf Merz, and Stefano Basso

Heavy-tailed probability distributions of streamflow are frequently observed in river basins. They indicate sizable odds of extreme events in these catchments and thus signal the existence of enhanced hydrological perils. Notwithstanding their relevance for characterizing the hydrological hazard of river basins, identifying specific mechanisms which promote the emergence of heavy-tailed flow distributions has proved challenging due to the complex hydrological response of such dynamical systems exposed to highly variable rainfall inputs.

In this study we combine a continuous hydrological model grounded on the geomorphological theory of the hydrologic response with archetypical descriptions of the spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall inputs and catchment attributes to investigate physical mechanisms and stochastic features leading to the emergence of heavy tails.

In the model, soil moisture dynamics driven by the water balance in the root zone trigger superficial and subsurface runoff contributions, which are routed to the catchment outlet by means of a representation of transport by travel time distributions. The framework enables a parsimonious distributed description of hydrological processes, suitably considered with their stochastic character, and is thus fit for the goal of investigating manifold mechanisms promoting heavy-tailed streamflow distributions.

A set of archetypical spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall inputs and catchment attributes (e.g., localized versus uniform rainfall in the catchment, lumped versus distributed catchment attributes, mainly upstream versus downstream source areas, high versus low rainfall frequency) are finally imposed in the model and their capability (or not) to affect the tail of the streamflow distribution is investigated.

The proposed framework provides a way to disentangle physical attributes of river catchments and stochastic properties of hydroclimatic variables which control the emergence of heavy-tailed streamflow distributions and thus identify the key drivers of the inherent hydrological hazard of river basins.

How to cite: Wang, H.-J., Yang, S., Merz, R., and Basso, S.: Investigating rainfall and catchment attributes promoting heavy-tailed distributions of river flows, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2682, 2021.

EGU21-10187 | vPICO presentations | HS7.7

A stochastic methodology for pluvial flood mapping in urban areas with a fast-processing DEM-based flooding algorithm 

Luis Mediero, Enrique Soriano, Peio Oria, Stefano Bagli, Attilio Castellarin, Luis Garrote, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, Stefania Pasetti, Simone Persiano, David Santillán, and Kai Schröter

High-intensity and short-duration storms can generate pluvial floods in urban areas. Currently, 2D hydrodynamic models are recognised to be the best tool to simulate pluvial floods. The T-year synthetic design storm is usually assumed to generate the T-year pluvial flood. However, synthetic design storms cannot represent the variability in duration, precipitation and intensity temporal distribution of real storms that should be considered to account for their influence on water depths in pluvial floods. A more sound approach consists in estimating the T-year water depth in a given location from the frequency curve of water depths generated by a long series of possible rainfall events similar to the real storms.

However, 2D hydrodynamic models require high computation times that are not well suited with stochastic simulations. The Safer_RAIN tool is a rapid hydrostatic flood model based on a filling-and-spilling technique that has been developed within the SAFERPLACES project funded by the EIT Climate-KIC (Samela et al., 2020). Depressions and links between them are identified from a digital terrain model. The continuity equation is used to simulate how depressions are filled and spill to downstream depressions. Infiltration is simulated by using a distributed implementation of the Green and Ampt model that accounts for ponding time.

In this study, a stochastic methodology to delineate pluvial flood hazards is proposed in the Pamplona metropolitan area in Spain. First, the Safer_RAIN tool has been benchmarked by using spatially distributed high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) at time steps of 10 minutes for three real pluvial flood events. QPEs were obtained merging the data recorded at a set of automatic weather stations from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the Regional Government of Navarre and crowdsourced networks, with continuous fields of radar observations. The Safer_RAIN tool has been benchmarked with the 2D hydrodynamic IBER model. In Barañáin, the results show a bias of -0.17–0.18 m and a RMSE of 0.22–0.49 m between water depths, as well as an accuracy correlation coefficient (ACC) of 0.87–0.99. In Zizur Mayor, the bias is -0.19–0.20 m, the RMSE is 0.29–0.55 m and the ACC is between 0.88 and 0.98.

Second, a long set of 10 000 synthetic storms has been generated by using a stochastic rainfall generator based on a bivariate copula approach fitted to data recorded at four rainfall-gauging stations located close to the case study. The 10 000 synthetic storms generated with a Gumbel copula fitted to the real rainfall events have been used as input data of the Safer_RAIN tool. Safer_RAIN preprocessing was done in 112 seconds and each simulation lasted around 45 seconds. A Generalized Pareto distribution function was fitted to the 10 000 water depth values in each cell of the grid. Pluvial flood hazard maps were obtained by estimating the T-year water depth in each cell of the grid.

 

Samela et al. (2020). Safer_RAIN: A DEM-Based Hierarchical Filling-&-Spilling Algorithm for Pluvial Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping across Large Urban Areas, Water, 12, 1514.

How to cite: Mediero, L., Soriano, E., Oria, P., Bagli, S., Castellarin, A., Garrote, L., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Pasetti, S., Persiano, S., Santillán, D., and Schröter, K.: A stochastic methodology for pluvial flood mapping in urban areas with a fast-processing DEM-based flooding algorithm , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10187, 2021.

Against flood disasters to be intensified in a future climate, we are required to implement adaptation strategies on a limited budget. In urban areas, heavy rainfall-based floods are classified into two types: pluvial and fluvial floods. It is well known that fluvial floods cause deeper inundation and stronger fluid force while pluvial ones occur more frequently. Such hydrodynamic characteristics have been intensively discussed in a literature; however, their impact and the resulting damage have not yet been examined in a comprehensive manner due to small samples of storm events in one region that leads to high uncertainty in frequency analysis. In the context of climate change impact assessment on extreme events, considerable ensembles of climate data have become available, contributing to smaller uncertainty in frequency analysis of flood damages. This study presents a case study of frequency estimation of fluvial and pluvial floods in an urban area set in Nagoya City, Japan. We applied a large ensemble climate simulation database, d4PDF, to a combined pluvial and fluvial flood model, from which we derived flood risk curves for each type of flooding. The results indicated that pluvial flooding presents comparable economic risk to fluvial flooding (16% and 17% lesser damage at 50- and 100-year return periods, respectively) despite its significantly shallower flood depths (area with flood depth over 45 cm was only 10.5% and 5.4%, respectively). This is because pluvial floods widely occur over the city, including areas further away from the river. Furthermore, probably similar with other mega cities with long history, fluvial flood risk has been managed by settling the central economic district (originally the Nagoya Castle founded several centuries ago) on higher altitudes. The results suggest that pluvial flooding could have comparable economic risks to fluvial flooding in urban areas where major economic assets are widely sprawled over the city as well as historical countermeasures are implemented against fluvial flooding. Pluvial floods, countermeasures against which tend to be smaller than fluvial floods, should be managed at a comparable level in urban areas.

How to cite: Tanaka, T., Kiyohara, K., and Tachikawa, Y.: Deriving fluvial and pluvial flood risk curves using large ensemble climate simulation data with a fast 2-D flood model: A case study in Nagoya City, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3571, 2021.

The Kappa distribution is a versatile distribution and results in nine different distributions depending on its parameter values.The study presents an entropy-based method for estimating the parameters of the four parameters kappa distribution. At site data of the annual maximum flood of 30 sites of Krishna river basins are used for the study. The parameters estimated using the principle of maximum entropy (POME), method of moments, L-moments, and method of maximum likelihood is compared using Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. The overall performance of the methods POME, MLE and L-moment are found to be comparable, whereas MOM performs with the highest bias; both the entropy method and the L-moment method allows the four-parameter kappa distribution to fit the data well and the combination of the two methods can further improve the parameter estimation of the four-parameter kappa distribution.

How to cite: Singh, A. and Chavan, S.: Estimation and Comparison of Entropy-Based Parameter Estimation for Kappa Distribution over Krishna River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16127, 2021.

HS7.8 – Spatial extremes in the hydro- and atmosphere: understanding and modelling

EGU21-6096 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Investigating Future Changes in the Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes over the United States

Deeksha Rastogi, Danielle Touma, Katherine Evans, and Moetasim Ashfaq

An intensification of hydroclimate extremes in response to increase in radiative forcing has the potential to cause severe and widespread socioeconomic damages. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation of projected changes in the characteristics of these extremes in a warming climate is necessary for emergency preparedness and planning. While the intensity and frequency of these extremes have been thoroughly investigated, the efforts on understanding their spatial characteristics are still limited. To this end, we use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate simulations to investigate the spatial characteristics of daily-scale precipitation events across the United States, in addition to other features. The simulations cover 1966–2005 in the historical period and 2011–2050 in the future period under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario. The simulated ensemble compares well with observations in the historical period, and project further intensification of widespread extremes in the near future. Further, our results demonstrate that the projected changes in the characteristics of precipitation events are associated with more frequent occurrences of extreme years where contributions from intense and widespread events to the annual precipitation is unprecedently high. These findings highlight the need for more rigorous investigations of changes in the spatial characteristics of extremes to prepare for potential future changes and associated risks.

How to cite: Rastogi, D., Touma, D., Evans, K., and Ashfaq, M.: Investigating Future Changes in the Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes over the United States, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6096, 2021.

EGU21-472 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Modelling the tail behaviour of precipitation aggregates using conditional spatial extremes.

Jordan Richards, Jonathan Tawn, and Simon Brown

Fluvial flooding is not caused by high intensity rainfall at a single location, rather it is caused by the extremes of precipitation events aggregated over spatial catchment areas. Accurate modelling of the tail behaviour of such events can help to mitigate the financial aspects associated with floods, especially if river defences are built within specification to withstand an n-year event of this kind. Within an extreme value analysis framework, univariate methods for estimating the size of these n-year events are well studied and cemented in asymptotic theory.

 To complement these techniques, we develop a high-resolution spatial model for extreme precipitation by providing a fully spatial extension of the conditional approach for modelling multivariate extremes. We simulate realistic precipitation fields from this model and use univariate techniques to make inference about the extremal behaviour of aggregates over specified spatial domains. The challenge of zero precipitation data is overcome and further applications of the model are discussed. The model is fit to data from a convection permitting forecast model within the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18).

How to cite: Richards, J., Tawn, J., and Brown, S.: Modelling the tail behaviour of precipitation aggregates using conditional spatial extremes., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-472, 2021.

EGU21-3246 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Reliability of global gridded precipitation products in assessing extremes

Chandra Rupa Rajulapati, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Martyn P Clark, Saman Razavi, Guoqiang Tang, and John Pomeroy

Assessing extreme precipitation events is of high importance to hydrological risk assessment, decision making, and adaptation strategies. Global gridded precipitation products, constructed by combining various data sources such as precipitation gauge observations, atmospheric reanalyses and satellite estimates, can be used to estimate extreme precipitation events. Although these global precipitation products are widely used, there has been limited work to examine how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation. In this work, the five most widely used global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to GHCN-daily surface observations. The spatial variability of extreme precipitation events and the discrepancy amongst datasets in predicting precipitation return levels (such as 100- and 1000-year) were evaluated for the time period 1979-2017.  The behaviour of extremes, that is the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation, was quantified using indices of the heaviness of the upper tail of the probability distribution. Two parameterizations of the upper tail, the power and stretched-exponential, were used to reveal the probabilistic behaviour of extremes. The analysis shows strong spatial variability in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation extremes as estimated from the upper tails of the probability distributions. This spatial variability is similar to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The predicted 100- and 1000-year return levels differ substantially amongst the gridded products, and the level of discrepancy varies regionally, with large differences in Africa and South America and small differences in North America and Europe. The results from this work reveal the shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes. The work shows that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.

How to cite: Rajulapati, C. R., Papalexiou, S. M., Clark, M. P., Razavi, S., Tang, G., and Pomeroy, J.: Reliability of global gridded precipitation products in assessing extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3246, 2021.

EGU21-7159 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

How landscape and climate affect the spatial variability of the Italian rainfall extremes? Some initial clues based on I2-RED

Paola Mazzoglio, Ilaria Butera, and Pierluigi Claps

The intensity and the spatial distribution of precipitation depths are known to be highly dependent on relief and geomorphological parameters. Complex environments like mountainous regions are prone to intense and frequent precipitation events, especially if located near the coastline. Although the link between the mean annual rainfall and geomorphological parameters has received substantial attention, few literature studies investigate the relationship between the sub-daily maximum annual rainfall depth and geographical or morphological landscape features.
In this study, the mean of the rainfall extremes in Italy, recently revised in the so-called I2-RED dataset, are investigated in their spatial variability in comparison with some landscape and also some broad climatic characteristics. The database includes all sub-daily rainfall extremes recorded in Italy from 1916 until 2019 and this analysis considers their mean values (from 1 to 24 hours) in stations with at least 10 years of records, involving more than 3700 stations.
The geo-morpho-climatic factors considered range from latitude, longitude and minimum distance from the coastline on the geographic side, to elevation, slope, openness and obstruction morphological indices, and also include an often-neglected robust climatological information, as the local mean annual rainfall.
Obtained results highlight that the relationship between the annual maximum rainfall depths and the hydro-geomorphological parameters is not univocal over the entire Italian territory and over different time intervals. Considering the whole of Italy, the highest correlation is reached between the mean values of the 24-hours records and the mean annual precipitation (correlation coefficient greater than 0.75). This predominance remains also in sub-areas of the Italian territory (i.e., the Alpine region, the Apennines or the coastal areas) but correlation decreases as the time interval decreases, except for the Alpine region (0.73 for the 1-hour maximum). The other geomorphological parameters seem to act in conjunction, making it difficult to evaluate, with a simple linear regression analysis, their impact. As an example, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the elevation and the 1-hour extremes is greater than 0.35 for the Italian and the Alpine regions, while for the 24-hours interval it is greater than 0.35 over the coastal areas.
To further investigate the spatial variability of the relationship between rainfall and elevation, a spatial linear regression analysis has been undertaken. Local linear relationships have been fitted in circles centered on any of the 0.5-km size pixels in Italy, with 1 to 30 km radius and at least 5 stations included. Results indicate the need of more comprehensive terrain analysis to better understand the causes of local increasing or decreasing relations, poorly described in the available literature.

How to cite: Mazzoglio, P., Butera, I., and Claps, P.: How landscape and climate affect the spatial variability of the Italian rainfall extremes? Some initial clues based on I2-RED, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7159, 2021.

EGU21-10095 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Modelling extreme precipitation fields for large scale flood insurance

David Cross and John Paul Gosling

Assessment of both localised and widespread flooding is vital for flood insurance to ensure adequate financial protection for businesses and property owners alike. But modelling precipitation and catchment response on very large spatial scales remains a challenge because of the availability of data and the high dimensionality of the problem. Modelling flood risk for insurance requires spatially coherent estimation of extremes which go beyond the historical record. At the national and continental scale, it can be difficult to apply models which maintain both the dependence structure of the precipitation field and the marginal distributions which determine local impacts. Recent research into spatiotemporal random fields modelling is highly promising. Numerical weather prediction is also an attractive prospect because correlations are implicitly captured in physical processes, but the computational demand and the uncertainty of perturbed physics ensembles can limit its usefulness.  

We introduce a data driven approach for widescale flood risk assessment based on modelling extreme precipitation fields. Using gridded reanalysis precipitation data, we identify extreme precipitation events in space and time using a measure of correlation in the tails of the marginal distributions. The simulation of extreme precipitation follows two main processes. First, the timing and extent of events are modelled using a Poisson distribution for event triggers, and a spatial Poisson process perturbs event footprints for observed events in the neighbourhood of the trigger location. The second stage is to model the extreme precipitation field within the event footprint. A Copula process is used to estimate extreme precipitation quantiles for all simulation points within the event ensuring internal spatial coherence. Our method has the flexibility to model extreme precipitation with any underlying physical conditions using computationally efficient models which facilitate widescale risk assessment.

How to cite: Cross, D. and Gosling, J. P.: Modelling extreme precipitation fields for large scale flood insurance, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10095, 2021.

EGU21-7622 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Regionalization of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for different data types in Germany

Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Luisa Thiele, Henrike Stockel, and Uwe Haberlandt

Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are required for the design of several water systems and protection works. These curves are typically generated from the station data by fitting a theoretical distribution either to the annual extremes (AMS) or partial extremes (PE) series. Nevertheless, two main problems arise: i) for generating intensity depth for high return periods, long time series are needed (more than 40 years). While this is the case mainly for daily recordings, for sub-hourly time series only few point measurements are available. ii) as the station data are only local measurements, there is a need for regionalization of the of IDF curves to ungauged locations. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the use of different data types and methods in generating reliable IDF curves for ungauged locations.

For this purpose, the available gauge data from the German Weather Service (DWD) in Germany are employed, which include: 5000 daily stations with more than 40 years available, 1100 sub-hourly (5min) recordings with observations period shorter than 20 years, and finally 89 sub-hourly (5min) recordings with 60-70 years of observations. Annual extremes are extracted for each location for different durations D=5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, 180, 240, 360, 720, 2880 minutes, and a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution is fitted to each duration level as well as across all duration levels by the methods of the L-moments and Maximum-Likelihood, in order to derive the intensity quantiles for the given return periods Ta=2, 10, 20 and 100 years. First, a disaggregation scheme to 5 min resolution is performed on the daily recordings in order to investigate if disaggregated daily data can be useful for the IDF estimation of sub-daily durations. Then, the rainfall extremes of short observations are corrected by a correlation-based augmentation method. Finally, as the extreme intensities and durations are co-dependent, a normalization of the AMS over all the durations is performed.

To evaluate the regionalization of the IDF curves to ungauged regions, three methods are investigated: i) flood index method ii) regionalization with normalization of extremes over the durations and ii) kriging interpolation (ordinary and external drift kriging) of local AMS quantiles or parameters of the fitted distribution. The performance of these regionalization techniques is then evaluated by cross-validation, where the local IDF from the long sub-hourly time series are considered the true reference. Based on the relative bias, rmse and correlation the best method is selected and used for the regionalization of the IDF curves in Germany. Different data products are fed in the regionalization methods to answer the following questions: are the disaggregated long time series useful in regionalizing sub-hourly IDF? Can space be traded for time (and vice versa) when regionalizing IDF? What is the best incorporation of different data sets for the regionalization of the IDF? Lastly, a bootstrap method is as well employed to account for the uncertainties in estimation intensity-duration extremes for the given return periods.

How to cite: Shehu, B., Willems, W., Thiele, L., Stockel, H., and Haberlandt, U.: Regionalization of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for different data types in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7622, 2021.

EGU21-16123 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Estimating the hazard from extreme hail events across regional to local scales

Katharina Schroeer, Cornelia Schwierz, Simona Trefalt, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann

Hailstorms and associated hail stone sizes are a tricky atmospheric hazard to assess, because the processes leading to severe convective weather are complex and the spatiotemporal scales of the impacts are often small. The high natural variability of hail requires expensive high-resolution, area-covering measurements to establish robust statics. Weather radars help to achieve this, but despite growing data archives, records usually do not yet extend to climatological time scales (≥30y), and reference ground observations to calibrate hail algorithms are still fragmentary. Consequentially, there remain substantial uncertainties regarding the long-term hazard of hail. Nevertheless, stakeholders require estimates of return periods for preventive regulations or as input to downstream impact models, e.g., in the insurance and engineering sector.

In the project “Hail climatology Switzerland” MeteoSwiss partnered up with three federal offices, the insurance and engineering sectors to establish a common national reference of the occurrence of hail in Switzerland. The deliverables include developing return period maps of extreme hail events. However, the definition of such extremes varies across sectors. For example, stakeholders from damage prevention require impact probabilities of the largest hailstorm onto an average rooftop, whereas reinsurance stakeholders are interested in nation-wide worst-case events. Here we report on the approaches we took in deriving the frequencies of severe hail considering the different stakeholder demands and the challenges and uncertainties we thereby encountered.

Using newly reprocessed gridded radar hail data, we assess frequencies of observed hail occurrence in Switzerland over 19 years (2002-2020). We further developed a probabilistic hazard model using stochastic resampling of hailstorms, driven by large-scale environmental boundary conditions. In order to take a storm-object perspective on extremes, we isolate more than 40’000 individual hailstorm footprints. This allows us to consider local storm properties such as the distributions of hail stone sizes by storm area and duration. In addition, we identify region-dependent extreme storm properties, which is specifically relevant in the Alpine region, where high and complex topography creates sharp climatic gradients and results from other regions are often not easily transferable.

Results show that observed storm tracks vary strongly between years, and hail footprints vary substantially by storm type. Comparing our results obtained from the longest radar-based hail record so far, we find that the spatial patterns of hail agree well with existing hazard maps derived, i.a., from damage claims. However, we also find that frequencies of local extreme hail stone sizes may have been underestimated in the past. This is further corroborated by a regionally aggregated comparative analysis of the radar record to historical records of very large hail in Switzerland over the past century.

How to cite: Schroeer, K., Schwierz, C., Trefalt, S., Hering, A., and Germann, U.: Estimating the hazard from extreme hail events across regional to local scales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16123, 2021.

EGU21-341 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Causal inference for extremes on river networks

Ngoc Tran, Johannes Buck, and Claudia Kluppelberg

Causal inference for extreme aims to discover cause and effect relation between large observed values of random variables. This is a fundamental problem to in many applications, from finance, engineering risks, nutrition to hydrology, to name a few. Unique challenges to
extreme values are lack of data and lack of model smoothness due to the max operator. Existing methods in extreme value statistics for dimensions d ≥ 3 are limited due to an intractable likelihood, while techniques for learning Bayesian networks require a large amount of data to fit nonlinear models. This talk showcases the max-linear model and new algorithms for fitting them. Our method performs well on real data, recovering a directed graph for both the Danube and the Lower Colorado with high accuracy purely through extreme measurements. We also compare our method to state-of-the-art algorithms for causal inference for nonlinear models, and outline open problems in hydrology, extreme value statistics and machine learning.

How to cite: Tran, N., Buck, J., and Kluppelberg, C.: Causal inference for extremes on river networks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-341, 2021.

EGU21-56 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Statistical Modeling of Non-Stationary Heatwave Hazard

Peng Zhong, Raphael Huser, and Thomas Opitz

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate, as well as their environmental, societal, economic and global health-related risks. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning dataset observed at 44 monitoring stations. Extending the spectral representation of max-stable processes, our modeling framework relies on a novel construction of max-infinitely divisible processes, which include covariates to capture spatio-temporal non-stationarities. Our new model keeps a popular max-stable process on the boundary of the parameter space, while flexibly capturing weakening extremal dependence at increasing quantile levels and asymptotic independence. It clearly outperforms natural alternative models. Results show that the spatial extent of heatwaves is smaller for more severe events at higher altitudes and that recent heatwaves are moderately wider. Our probabilistic assessment of the 2019 annual maxima confirms the severity of the 2019 heatwaves both spatially and at individual sites, especially when compared to climatic conditions prevailing in 1950-1975. Our applied results may be exploited in practice to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics, severity, and frequency of extreme heatwaves, and design suitable regional mitigation measures.

How to cite: Zhong, P., Huser, R., and Opitz, T.: Statistical Modeling of Non-Stationary Heatwave Hazard, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-56, 2021.

EGU21-7391 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

Detecting the spatio-temporal propagation of heatwaves

Andrea Böhnisch, Elizaveta Felsche, and Ralf Ludwig

Heat waves are among the most hazardous climate extremes in Europe, commonly affecting large regions for a considerable amount of time. Especially in the recent past, heat waves account for substantial economic, social and ecologic impacts and loss. Projections suggest that their number, duration and intensity increase under changing climate conditions, stressing the importance of quantifying their characteristics. Yet, apart from the analysis of single historical events, little research is dedicated to the general propagation of heat waves in space and time.  
Heat waves are rare in their occurrence and limited observational data provide little means for robust analyses and the understanding of dynamical spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, we seek to increase the number of analyzable events by using a large climate model ensemble. The use of several model members of comparable climate statistics allows to robustly assessing various spatial patterns of heat waves as well as their typical temporal evolutions.  
Here, we explore a data-driven approach to infer cause-and-effect relationships from, in this case, regional climate model ensemble data in order to analyze the spatio-temporal propagation of spatially distributed phenomena. Our aim is to investigate specifically the transitions and inter-dependencies among heat waves in Europe. The approach includes the identification of most frequent heat wave patterns by clustering and the derivation of directed links between core regions of these heat wave classes using causal discovery in a data set of high spatial resolution. 
We present the setup of our framework, including clustering results of heat waves and first results of our analysis.

How to cite: Böhnisch, A., Felsche, E., and Ludwig, R.: Detecting the spatio-temporal propagation of heatwaves, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7391, 2021.

EGU21-15371 | vPICO presentations | HS7.8

 On spatial patterns of heat waves and cold spells from a large deviations perspective

Vera Melinda Galfi and Valerio Lucarini

We analyse persistent temperature events, like heat waves or cold spells, by applying large deviation theory (LDT), and show that events with a long duration have also a substantial spatial extension. We point out that by using LDT one finds typical spatial patterns related to the persistent temperature extremes. Based on the output of a state-of-the-art climate model, we define the climatology of persistent heatwaves and cold spells in some key target regions of the planet by constructing empirically the corresponding rate functions for the surface temperature, and we assess the impact of increasing CO2 concentration on such persistent anomalies. In particular, we notice the increasing hazard associated to heatwaves in a warmer climate. We show that two 2010 high impact events - summer Russian heatwave and winter Dzud in Mongolia – are associated with extended atmospheric patterns that are exceptional compared to the typical ones, but typical compared to the climatology of extreme events.

How to cite: Galfi, V. M. and Lucarini, V.:  On spatial patterns of heat waves and cold spells from a large deviations perspective, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15371, 2021.

HS7.9 – The atmospheric water cycle under change: feedbacks, land use, hydrological changes and implications

EGU21-6204 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Exploring the effects of the land surface on tropical precipitation

Marianne Pietschnig, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ruth Geen, F. Hugo Lambert, and Geoffrey K. Vallis

Projected precipitation changes over tropical land tend to be enhanced by vegetation responses to CO2 forcing in Earth System Models. Projected decreases in rainfall over the Amazon basin and increases over the Maritime Continent are both stronger when plant physiological changes are modelled than if these changes are neglected, but the reasons for this amplification remain unclear. The responses of vegetation to increasing CO2 levels are complex and uncertain, but changes in stomatal conductance likely dominate the evapotranspiration response in Earth System Models.

We investigate why vegetation changes cause precipitation to increase more strongly over the Maritime Continent while decreasing more strongly over the Amazon basin. We employ an idealized Atmospheric General Circulation Model with a simplified vegetation scheme that captures CO2-driven stomatal closure.

We find that – counter-intuitively – rainfall is enhanced over a narrow rectangular island when terrestrial evaporation falls to zero with high CO2. Strong heating and ascent over the island trigger moisture advection from the surrounding ocean. In contrast, over larger continents rainfall depends on continental moisture recycling.

Simulations with two large rectangular continents representing South America and Africa reveal that the stronger decrease in rainfall over the Amazon basin is due to a combination of local and remote effects:

Finally, we investigate the impact of land-surface hydrology on continental rainfall on seasonal timescales. Using our idealized model and realistic continents, we study the strength of the South East Asian monsoon for different continental evaporation schemes. Surprisingly, when terrestrial evapotranspiration is unlimited (i.e. does not depend on soil moisture availability), monsoon precipitation is much weaker than when terrestrial evapotranspiration is limited by soil moisture. In order to explain this behavior, we compare the atmospheric energy budgets and circulation between the simulations.

Our results show that the land-surface hydrology plays an important role in modifying tropical precipitation and atmospheric dynamics on seasonal timescales and in the long-term under climate change, and that further investigation into the topic is called for.

How to cite: Pietschnig, M., Swann, A. L. S., Geen, R., Lambert, F. H., and Vallis, G. K.: Exploring the effects of the land surface on tropical precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6204, 2021.

As the world population continues to rise under global warming, it becomes increasingly urgent to understand the climate system and atmospheric water cycle,  which could be beneficial for assessing future freshwater resources and land-use management. Recent endeavors by the regional studies were put to identify the source-receptor network and synoptic-scale moisture transport in major river basins worldwide affected by monsoons. Notably, growing studies suggest the transboundary upwind moisture sources are, in fact, very crucial to the intensity and variability of precipitation in the downwind areas, which arouses the call for international governance over land-use and water management. Recognizing the need for international governance on moisture sources from different regional studies and considering results from many moisture-sink-orientated studies, it, however, remains largely unclear where exactly are the moisture source hotspots that are shared by most countries and societies. Such information would better facilitate the international attention, effort and policymaking to safeguard those influential moisture hotspots. Further, more scientific questions need to be addressed: how these global moisture hotspots vary in time and space for the past few decades, and how would these changes be attributed to the known climate events and even human activities.

To these ends, we utilize a state-of-the-art three-dimensional Lagrangian model, the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART), to homogeneously divide the atmosphere into six million parcels with roughly equal masses and simulate their movements from 1971 to 2010. Instead of focusing on a particular sink region, all the moisture released over land is backtracked to construct a map of moisture hotspots throughout seasons. As surprising as it may seem, the results suggest the majority of global moisture source hotspots for land precipitation are also terrestrial, especially those located in the Amazon rainforest, the Congo rainforest, the Ganges river basin, the Mekong river basin and the Yangtze River basin. Most of these hotspots also situate in monsoonal domains where their strengths vary significantly across seasons. Given also significant interannual variabilities and long-term trends in the strength of these globally shared moisture hotspots, we suspect that climatic events, global warming and urbanization processes could be attributable to the changes in the hotspots. Findings from this work would advance our knowledge of the location of global moisture hotspots that are key to the precipitation over land. Understanding the possible linkages between the hotspots’ changes and climatic events and human-related activities could benefit long-term planning of regional and international strategies for securing freshwater resources.

How to cite: Cheng, T. F., Lu, M., and Dai, L.: Global moisture hotspots for terrestrial precipitation: the variabilities and possible linkages to climatic events and human activities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2281, 2021.

EGU21-5810 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

Environmental and geographical effects on fog occurrence

Iva Hunova, Marek Brabec, Marek Malý, Alexandru Dumitrescu, and Jan Geletič

Fog is a very complex phenomenon (Gultepe et al., 2007). In some areas it can contribute substantially to hydrological and chemical inputs and is therefore of high environmental relevance (Blas et al., 2010). Fog formation is affected by numerous factors, such as meteorology, air pollution, terrain (geomorphology), and land-use.

In our earlier studies we addressed the role of meteorology and air pollution on fog occurrence (Hůnová et al., 2018) and long-term trends in fog occurrence in Central Europe (Hůnová et al., 2020). This study builds on earlier model identification of year-to-year and seasonal components in fog occurrence and brings an analysis of the deformation of the above components due to the individual explanatory variables. The aim of this study was to indicate the geographical and environmental factors affecting the fog occurrence.

       We have examined the data on fog occurrence from 56 meteorological stations of various types from Romania reflecting different environments and geographical areas. We used long-term records from the 1981–2017 period. 

       We considered both the individual explanatory variables and their interactions. With respect to geographical factors, we accounted for the altitude and landform. With respect to environmental factors,   we accounted for proximity of large water bodies, and proximity of forests. Geographical data from Copernicus pan-European (e.g. CORINE land cover, high resolution layers) and local (e.g. Urban Atlas) projects were used. Elevation data from EU-DEM v1.1 were source for morphometric analysis (Copernicus, 2020).

        We applied a generalized additive model, GAM (Wood, 2017; Hastie & Tibshirani, 1990) to address nonlinear trend shapes in a formalized and unified way. In particular, we employed penalized spline approach with cross-validated penalty coefficient estimation. To explore possible deformations of annual and seasonal components with various covariates of interest, we used (penalized) tensor product splines to model (two-way) interactions parsimoniously, Wood (2006).

       The fog occurrence showed significant decrease over the period under review. In general the selected explanatory variables significantly affected the fog occurrence and their effect was non-linear. Our results indicated that, the geographical and environmental variables affected primarily the seasonal component of the model. Of the factors which were accounted for, it was mainly the altitude showing the clear effect on seasonal component deformation (Hůnová et al., in press).

      

 

References:

Blas, M, Polkowska, Z., Sobik, M., et al. (2010). Atmos. Res. 95, 455–469.

Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (2020). Accessed online at: https://land.copernicus.eu/.

Gultepe, I., Tardif, R., Michaelidis, S.C., Cermak, J., Bott, A. et al. (2007). Pure Appl Geophys, 164, 1121-1159.

Hastie, T.J., Tibshirani, R.J. (1990). Generalized Additive Models. Boca Raton, Chapman & Hall/CRC.

Hůnová, I., Brabec, M., Malý, M., Dumitrescu, A., Geletič, J. (in press) Sci. Total Environ. 144359.

Hůnová, I., Brabec, M., Malý, M., Valeriánová, A. (2018) Sci. Total Environ. 636, 1490–1499.

Hůnová, I., Brabec, M., Malý, M., Valeriánová, A. (2020) Sci. Total Environ. 711, 135018.

Wood, S.N. (2006) Low rank scale invariant tensor product smooths for generalized additive mixed models. Biometrics 62(4):1025-1036

Wood, S.N. (2017). Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R (2nd ed). Boca Raton, Chapman & Hall/CRC.

 

How to cite: Hunova, I., Brabec, M., Malý, M., Dumitrescu, A., and Geletič, J.: Environmental and geographical effects on fog occurrence, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5810, 2021.

EGU21-8984 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

The role of soil hydrophysical properties in the atmospheric water cycle

Eli Dennis and Ernesto Berbery

Soil hydrophysical properties are necessary components in weather and climate simulation; yet, the parameter inaccuracies may introduce considerable uncertainty in the representation of surface water and energy fluxes. The surface fluxes not only affect the terrestrial water and energy budgets, but through land-atmosphere interactions, they can influence the boundary layer, atmospheric stability, moisture transports, and regional precipitation characteristics. This study uses seasonal coupled simulations to examine the uncertainties in the North American atmospheric water cycle that result from the use of different soil datasets. Two soil datasets are considered: State Soil Geographic dataset (STATSGO) from the United States Department of Agriculture and Global Soil Dataset for Earth System Modeling (GSDE) from Beijing Normal University.  Each dataset's dominant soil category allocations differ significantly at the model's resolution (15 km). It is found that large coherent regional discrepancies exist in the assignments of soil category, such that, for instance, in the Midwestern United States (hereafter, Midwest), there is a systematic reduction in soil grain size. Because the soil grain size is regionally biased, it allows for analysis of the impact of soil hydrophysical properties projected onto regional scales.

The two simulations are conducted from June 1–August 31, 2016–2018 using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4. It is found that in the Midwest, where the soil grain size decreases from STATSGO to GSDE, the GSDE simulation experiences reduced mean latent heat flux (–15 W m-2), and increased sensible heat flux (+15 W m-2).  The differences in fluxes lead to differences in low-level specific humidity and 2-m temperature. The boundary layer thermodynamic structure responds to these changes resulting in differences in mean CAPE and CIN. In the GSDE simulation, there is more energy available for convection (CAPE: +200 J kg-1) in the Midwest, but it is more difficult to access that energy (CIN: +75 J kg-1). Furthermore, a reduction in low-level moisture generates a similar reduction in column-integrated moisture (i.e., precipitable water), resulting in conditions that are less conducive for precipitation.

Interestingly, the soil-texture-related surface fluxes are not confined to thermodynamic influence, but their influence extends to dynamic fields as well. Differences in the vertically-integrated wind field suggest a weakening of the continental low-pressure system (i.e., denoted by a reduction in cyclonic rotation) co-located with the decrease in latent heat flux in the Midwest. The associated vertically-integrated moisture fluxes mirror the dissimilarities in the wind fields. Consequently, the moisture fluxes yield differences in vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence in the same region, as well. This combination of thermodynamic and dynamic variable differences culminates in a reduction of average precipitation in the Midwest, which can be related to changes in the placement of soil hydrophysical properties via soil texture. Through land-atmosphere interactions, it is shown that soil parameters can affect each component of the atmospheric water budget.

How to cite: Dennis, E. and Berbery, E.: The role of soil hydrophysical properties in the atmospheric water cycle, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8984, 2021.

EGU21-10860 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

Meteorological and geographical control on stable isotope signature of precipitation in a Western Mediterranean area (Tuscany, Central Italy)

Stefano Natali, Giovanni Zanchetta, Ilaria Baneschi, Marco Doveri, and Roberto Giannecchini

Stable water isotopes of precipitation are widely used to track processes occurring within the hydrological cycle and to understand regional atmospheric patterns that influence a specific area. Moreover, the use of the oxygen isotopic composition in continental carbonates (e.g. speleothems) is a well-established practice to reconstruct climatic variations in the recent past. In the Mediterranean basin, the continental carbonate δ18O is generally used as a proxy of paleo-precipitation since the water-calcite fractionation factor is able to compensate the δ18O-T gradient of about 0.2‰/°C typical of rainfall in this area. However, few comprehensive investigations were performed in the Western Mediterranean in order to analyze the statistical relationships between measured stable isotopes in precipitation and meteorological variables, and none of them accounted for the possible seasonality in these relationships. Understanding the degree of dependence of the rainfall isotopic signature from precipitation amount and temperature at present day is of primary importance in Tuscany (Central-Western Italy), where many performed palaeohydrological studies require a more precise and quantitative interpretation. To this end, in the present study 560 isotope monthly data (δ18O, δ2H, and deuterium excess) of precipitation collected in 11 sites through Tuscany from 1971 to 2018 were gathered in a database. A large part of dataset was extracted from GNIP database (and integrated with new data) or derived from local hydrogeological studies, whereas 83 new measurements were produced at two novel sites. Then, only sites whose monthly data covered almost one year were considered for processing, resulting in 474 precipitation samples archived along with monthly mean temperature and rainfall amount. In this framework, a LMWL for Tuscany Region was determined for the first time by applying different regression techniques. A Spearman’s rank correlation analysis was performed to summarize the strength and direction of the relationship between stable isotope signatures of precipitation and meteorological variables, both at monthly and annual timescale. The monthly correlation was also investigated on seasonal basis. Finally, the influence of local geographical effects (altitude, distance to the coast, etc.) on the isotopic signals registered at different sites was evaluated.

How to cite: Natali, S., Zanchetta, G., Baneschi, I., Doveri, M., and Giannecchini, R.: Meteorological and geographical control on stable isotope signature of precipitation in a Western Mediterranean area (Tuscany, Central Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10860, 2021.

EGU21-15579 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

The spatio-temporal evolution of groundwater dependent precipitation

Cristina Passet, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Yoshihide Wada, Agnes Pranindita, and Agatha De Boer
A substantial portion of groundwater abstracted from aquifers is used for irrigation and evaporated to the atmosphere, potentially contributing towards downwind precipitation. While the fate of evaporation fluxes from land have been analysed, the atmospheric pathways of evaporation originating from groundwater have not yet been globally quantified. This study analysed the geographical distribution, the seasonality and the magnitude of groundwater-dependent precipitation (Pgw) at a global scale and for a selection of countries and river basins. The Eulerian moisture tracking WAM-2layers model was used to process meteorological and groundwater abstraction input data from 1980 to 2010.  Results show considerable contributions of groundwater to precipitation downwind of the most heavily irrigated areas, leading to net groundwater losses over these areas. Globally, 40% of the Pgw precipitates directly in the oceans, and do not contribute to biomass production in terrestrial ecosystems. Some of the countries with the highest rates of groundwater abstraction (India, the USA, Pakistan and Iran), receive low volumes of Pgw and are net losers of groundwater resources. The countries with the highest net gain of groundwater are China, Canada and Russia. At river basin scale, the Indus, Ganges and Mississippi basins are net losers of groundwater to downwind Pgw, while the Yangtze, Tarim and Brahmaputra basins receive more Pgw than their groundwater withdrawals. The share of precipitation that originates from groundwater varies considerably with seasons, and can be especially high when low local precipitation levels occur in combination with high upwind groundwater abstraction. Furthermore, precipitation dependence on groundwater (ρgw), has steadily increased between 1980 to 2010 in all studied areas and globally. Our study suggests that the countries and basins with a high and increasing dependency on ρgw to support their precipitation can be vulnerable to groundwater availability upwind.

How to cite: Passet, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Wada, Y., Pranindita, A., and De Boer, A.: The spatio-temporal evolution of groundwater dependent precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15579, 2021.

EGU21-675 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

The role of irrigation expansion on historical climate change during the last 115 years: insights from CMIP6

Amen Al-Yaari, Agnes Ducharne, Wim Thiery, Frederique Cheruy, and David Lawrence

Irrigated areas have increased, faster than the growth of the world population, from around 0.63 million km2 at the start of the 20th century to 3.1 million km2 of land in 2005, that is five times of area in 1900 (0.6 million km2). Irrigation is one of the land management practices with the largest biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate. However, incorporating land management factors (including irrigation) into most of the state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) is still overlooked. To our best knowledge, three models, however, take into account irrigation activities: namely NorESM2‐LM, GISS‐E2‐H, and CESM2. The overall objective of the study is to investigate the role of irrigation on climate change at the global scale by looking at temporal trends of Essential Climate variables (ECVs) that characterize the Earth's climate (Evapotranspiration, leaf area index, precipitation, soil moisture, radiation, and air temperature) over the last 115 years (i.e. 1900-2014). Within this investigation, we compared models with irrigation vs. models without irrigation using 20 models from different CMIP6 experiments: coupled land-atmosphere amip (observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations), coupled land-atmosphere-ocean historical simulation, and offline land-hist (land only simulations). Temporal trends over the 1900-2014 period were computed then spatially binned by the "FAO Global Map of Irrigation Areas", which represents area equipped for irrigation expressed as percentage of total area around the year 2005. For the three CMIP6 experiments, the three models with irrigation switched on showed similar and distinguished behavior from all other models with irrigation switched off over intensively irrigated areas: mean annual evapotranspiration and soil moisture increased over time (positive trends vs. negative or no trends for all other none-irrigation models). This increase in evapotranspiration over time was reflected in the negative trends (i.e. cooling) of annual maximum air temperature for the irrigation models vs. positive trends for most of the none-irrigation models. The ET temporal positive trends over intensively irrigated areas were detected and confirmed by four different satellite-based ET products. The consistent results among the three experiments and confirmed by different satellite data imply the importance of incorporating anthropogenic factors in the next generation of climate models.

How to cite: Al-Yaari, A., Ducharne, A., Thiery, W., Cheruy, F., and Lawrence, D.: The role of irrigation expansion on historical climate change during the last 115 years: insights from CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-675, 2021.

EGU21-7697 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

The ‘global tree restoration potential’: a first estimation of the hydrological effects

Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Imme Benedict, Kaniska Mallick, Martin Herold, Miriam Machwitz, Martin Schlerf, and Adriaan J. Teuling

Vegetation plays an important role in the exchange of water between the land surface and the atmosphere through evaporation and redistribution of water. Hence, changes in vegetation cover alter the terrestrial hydrological cycle. Large-scale forest restoration is an effective climate change mitigation strategy through carbon sequestration and is expected to impact the water availability. A better understanding of the impact of reforestation is needed, given the numerous different reforestation missions.

Our study aims to provide an estimation of the hydrological effects of 900 million hectares of reforestation, called the ‘global tree restoration potential’ (Bastin et al., 2019). We include the effects of forest planting on evaporation and moisture recycling, where evaporation effects local water availability, and moisture recycling effects both local and remote water availability. We used the conventional Budyko’s moisture index framework to calculate the effects of reforestation on evaporation, and afterwards we used the UTrack dataset to calculate the changes in precipitation. The UTrack dataset presents the monthly climatological mean atmospheric moisture flows from evaporation to precipitation and is created using the Lagrangian moisture tracking model UTrack (Tuinenburg et al., 2020).

The results show that reforesting the ‘global tree restoration potential’ would effect water availability for most of the Earth’s surface. The global mean increase in terrestrial evaporation is 8 mm yr-1. The increase in evaporation is highest around the equator (on average 20 mm yr-1), with local maximum changes of up to 200 mm yr-1. This is related to a relatively high restoration potential in low latitude areas, and a generally large evaporation response in high precipitation regions. Enhanced moisture recycling has the potential to partly compensate for this decreased water availability by increasing the downwind precipitation.

 

Bastin, J.-F., Finegold, Y., Garcia, C., Mollicone, D., Rezende, M., Routh, D., Zohner, C.M., Crowther, T.W. The global tree restoration potential. Science, 365, 76-79, http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax0848, 2019.

Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., and Staal, A.: High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3177–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3177-2020, 2020.

How to cite: Hoek van Dijke, A. J., Benedict, I., Mallick, K., Herold, M., Machwitz, M., Schlerf, M., and Teuling, A. J.: The ‘global tree restoration potential’: a first estimation of the hydrological effects, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7697, 2021.

EGU21-9251 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Deforestation impacts on Amazon-Andes hydroclimatic connectivity

Juan Sierra, Jhan Carlo Espinoza, Clementine Junquas, Jan Polcher, Miguel Saavedra, Jorge Alcides Molina Carpio, Marcos Andrade, Thomas Condom, and Laura Ticona

The Amazon rainforest is a key component of the climate system and one of the main planetary evapotranspiration sources. Over the entire Amazon basin, strong land-atmosphere feedbacks cause almost one third of the regional rainfall to be transpired by the local rainforest. Maximum precipitation recycling ratio takes place on the southwestern edge of the Amazon basin (a.k.a. Amazon-Andes transition region), an area recognized as the rainiest and biologically richest of the whole watershed. Here, high precipitation rates lead to large values of runoff per unit area providing most of the sediment load to Amazon rivers. As a consequence, the transition region can potentially be very sensitive to Amazonian forest loss. In fact, recent acceleration in deforestation rates has been reported over tropical South America. These sustained land-cover changes can alter the regional water and energy balances, as well as the regional circulation and rainfall patterns. In this sense, the use of regional climate models can help to understand the possible impacts of deforestation on the Amazon-Andes zone.

This work aims to assess the projected Amazonian deforestation effects on the moisture transport and rainfall behavior over tropical South America and the Amazon-Andes transition region. We perform 10-year austral summer simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) using 3 one-way nested domains. Our finest domain is located over the south-western part of the basin, comprising two instrumented Andean Valleys (Zongo and Coroico river Valleys). Convective permitting high horizontal resolution (1km) is used over this domain. The outcomes presented here enhance the understanding of biosphere-atmosphere coupling and its deforestation induced disturbances.

How to cite: Sierra, J., Espinoza, J. C., Junquas, C., Polcher, J., Saavedra, M., Molina Carpio, J. A., Andrade, M., Condom, T., and Ticona, L.: Deforestation impacts on Amazon-Andes hydroclimatic connectivity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9251, 2021.

In the semi-arid U.S. Great Plains, nocturnal southerly low-level jets (LLJs) serve critical roles as conveyors of remotely-sourced (i.e., Gulf of Mexico) water vapor and agents of atmospheric instability in the warm-season.  Defined by a diurnally oscillating wind maximum between 0–3 km above the surface, LLJs have been studied by meteorologists for over 60-years due to their role in severe weather outbreaks. It is only within the past decade that a subset of LLJs with especially high vertically integrated water vapor transport, termed atmospheric rivers, have drawn the attention of hydrologists.

In this study, changes in LLJ frequency and structure over the period from 1901–2010 are quantified using ECMWF’s Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (CERA-20C). A new objective dynamical LLJ classification dataset is used to separately quantify changes in the two predominant LLJ types: synoptically coupled and uncoupled. The findings reveal that both the frequency of Great Plains LLJs and their associated precipitation have decreased significantly over the 20th century. Decreases in LLJ associated precipitation range between 10–14% of total present day May–September precipitation. The largest differences observed are attributable to uncoupled jet frequency and structural changes during July and August over the central and northern Great Plains. Overall, the results indicate the contribution of LLJs to the region’s water budget has diminished.

How to cite: Ferguson, C. R.: The diminishing contribution of low-level jets to the U.S. Great Plains water budget, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7017, 2021.

EGU21-12386 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Anomalies of continental precipitation associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation: the role of moisture contribution from oceanic and terrestrial sources 

Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L.R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno

The regional and global precipitation pattern is highly modulated by the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is considered the most important mode of climate variability on the planet. In this study was investigated the asymmetry of the continental precipitation anomalies during El Niño and La Niña. To do it, a Lagrangian approach already validated was used to determine the proportion of the total Lagrangian precipitation that is of oceanic and terrestrial origin. During both, El Niño and La Niña, the Lagrangian precipitation in regions such as the northeast of South America, the east and west coast of North America, Europe, the south of West Africa, Southeast Asia, and Oceania is generally determined by the oceanic component of the precipitation, while that from terrestrial origin provides a major percentage of the average Lagrangian precipitation towards the interior of the continents. The role of the moisture contribution to precipitation from terrestrial and oceanic origin was evaluated in regions with statistically significant precipitation anomalies during El Niño and La Niña. Two-phase asymmetric behavior of the precipitation was found in regions such the northeast of South America, South Africa, the north of Mexico, and southeast of the United States, etc. principally for December-January-February and June-July-August. For some of these regions was also calculated the anomalies of the precipitation from other datasets to confirm the changes. Besides, for these regions was calculated the anomaly of the Lagrangian precipitation, which agrees in all the cases with the precipitation change. For these regions, it was determined which component of the Lagrangian precipitation, whether oceanic or terrestrial, controlled the precipitation anomalies. A schematic figure represents the extent of the most important seasonal oceanic and terrestrial sources for each subregion during El Niño and La Niña.

How to cite: Sorí, R., Nieto, R., Liberato, M. L. R., and Gimeno, L.: Anomalies of continental precipitation associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation: the role of moisture contribution from oceanic and terrestrial sources , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12386, 2021.

EGU21-2082 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

Evaluation of the tropical water vapor of CMIP6 GCMs with ESA CCI+ “Water Vapor” climate data records: Insights from large-scale atmospheric circulation

Helene Brogniez, Jia He, Laurence Picon, Marc Schroder, René Preusker, and Olaf Danne

Water vapor is one of the fundamental elements in the atmosphere. Its distribution is strongly associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Here the new global water vapor climate data records (CDR) generated within the ESA Water Vapor CCI+ project (WV_cci) is used to perform a comprehensive evaluation of total column water vapor provided by 21 global climate models (CMIP6 framework). The ESA WV_cci CDRs cover the period 2002-2017 with a daily frequency and a regular 0.5° spatial resolution. The focus is on the tropical region (30°S - 30°N). The observational diagnostic relies on the decomposition of the tropical atmosphere into large-scale dynamical regimes using the 500 hPa atmospheric vertical velocity w500 (in hPa/day) as a proxy. The ESA WV_cci and the CMIP6 data are then sorted according to dynamical regimes (intervals of 10 hPa/day) allowing to study the evolution of the regimes in terms of frequency of occurrence and is linked to water vapor variation. While the basic picture of the tropical atmosphere is properly represented by the models (moister in ascending branches, drier in subsiding branches) there are noticeable differences in the patterns that will be discussed. The inter-annual variation of water vapor for both observation and the models will be analyzed, and the trend significance are assessed using Mann-Kendall test. This highlights the interest of water vapor climate data records for model evaluation.

How to cite: Brogniez, H., He, J., Picon, L., Schroder, M., Preusker, R., and Danne, O.: Evaluation of the tropical water vapor of CMIP6 GCMs with ESA CCI+ “Water Vapor” climate data records: Insights from large-scale atmospheric circulation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2082, 2021.

Extreme precipitation is expected to increase at the rate of 7% per degree rise in temperature as suggested by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation (also known as CC scaling). Observations however, show deviations from the CC rate, with mostly negative precipitation - temperature scaling in warm tropical regions. Here we explain the negative precipitation scaling in the tropics with the cloud radiative effect on surface temperatures. Temperatures are shaped by the surface energy balance, which is affected by clouds, and hence temperatures are not independent of precipitation. We used observations from India and found negative scaling rates over most regions as extreme precipitation scaling tends to breakdown at temperatures of about 23◦to 25◦C. We show that these negative scaling rates arise from the radiative cooling of clouds associated with precipitation events which is predominant in India during the summer monsoon season. To test our hypothesis, we used an energy balance model constrained by assumption that convective exchange within atmosphere works at its thermodynamic limit of maximum power. Using the NASA-CERES radiation product, we calculated surface temperatures for “All sky” and “Clear sky” conditions to include/exclude the effect of cloud radiative forcing. Our results show a diametric change in precipitation scaling after removing the cooling effect of clouds on surface temperatures. Negative precipitation scaling (-4% /◦C) was found when using “All sky” conditions, but these come close to the CC rate (7% to 9% /◦C) when estimated using temperatures derived from “Clear sky” conditions. The breakdown in extreme precipitation scaling at high temperatures also disappeared forthe “Clear sky” temperatures. This implies that the breakdown in scaling may not relate to changes in aridity or the lack of moisture, but rather to the associated changes in cloud cover. Negative scaling rates derived from observations are thus likely to misrepresent the response of extreme precipitation to global warming in tropical regions. Our findings suggest that an intensification of precipitation extremes at CC rate with global warming is consistent with observations.

Keywords: Extreme Precipitation, CC scaling, Maximum Power, Indian Mon-soon

How to cite: Ghausi, S. A., Kleidon, A., and Ghosh, S.: Attributing the negative scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature over India to cloud radiative cooling during the monsoon season, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7902, 2021.

EGU21-9326 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

Global moisture transport and the role of major teleconnection patterns

Marta Vázquez, Raquel Nieto, Margarida Liberato, and Luis Gimeno

The teleconnection patterns are an important feature influencing the variability of moisture transport toward the continent. This work analyses the influence of the Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, Pacific North America, and ENSO on the moisture transport from major oceanic and continental moisture sources in the month of higher precipitation. The Pacific North America higher influence is observed over North America with an increased contribution to the western region from the Pacific and lower over the eastern region from the Atlantic in the positive phase. The moisture transport during Arctic Oscillation events seems to be modulated by the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic, increasing from the Mediterranean in the positive phase and decreasing from the Atlantic. The Antarctic Oscillation shows its most relevant influence over Australia and Eastern Africa, with increased moisture contribution from eastern regions on the positive phase. Finally, ENSO events show influence in moisture transport over different areas in the world. El Niño events are associated with increased transport from the Atlantic region over western Europe and from the Pacific over North America. In South and Central America, the moisture contribution decreased over the regions closer to the equator, while the opposite occurs over southern South America. Over eastern Africa and Southern Asia, moisture inflow from the Indian Ocean seems to be affected by the pattern. The result suggests the influence of the moisture contribution on the precipitation pattern in association with main teleconnection patterns.

How to cite: Vázquez, M., Nieto, R., Liberato, M., and Gimeno, L.: Global moisture transport and the role of major teleconnection patterns, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9326, 2021.

EGU21-13586 | vPICO presentations | HS7.9

The role of consecutive extratropical cyclones Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien on drought busting during December 2019 in the Minho-Limia-Sil Hydrographic demarcation

Milica Stojanovic, Ana Gonçalves, Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, and Margarida L.R. Liberato

Three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula during December 2019. In this region is located the Miño-Limia-Sil Hydrographic Demarcation (MLSHD), which includes part of Galicia, in Spain and the north of Portugal. The water resources of the MLSHD are of great importance for the socio-economic framework of both countries, particularly for the agricultural and livestock activities, tourism, and the production of electrical energy from renewable sources like the eolic and the hydroelectric. In this study was analysed the synoptic characteristics of these extratropical cyclones, particularly during the life cycle close to the Iberian Peninsula, when the greatest damages associated with strong winds and intense rainfall occurred. The storm Daniel was formed from a secondary low located to the west and close to the Iberian Peninsula during the afternoon of December 15. Nevertheless, Elsa was formed in the Gulf of Mexico and Fabian in the north Atlantic Ocean, then both crossed the north Atlantic Ocean to finally affect with intense rainfall that caused floods in the MLSHD from 18 to 21 December 2019. The moisture supplies from the tropical north Atlantic Ocean, revealed by the integrated water vapour transport favoured the intensification of all these systems. The consecutive impact of these systems provided great amounts of rainfall to the MLSHD, causing positive anomalies of the total accumulated rainfall for this month. An assessment of drought conditions through the SPI and the SPEI on time scales of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months exposed the role of these systems on drought busting in the MLSHD. Therefore, despite the negative impacts, these systems favoured a recovery of the hydrological conditions of the Demarcation. Our results confirm the importance of studying for a long study period the role of extratropical cyclones on hydrological conditions of the MLSHD.

Acknowledgements:
This study is supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT), under project WEx-Atlantic (PTDC/CTA-MET/29233/2017).

How to cite: Stojanovic, M., Gonçalves, A., Sorí, R., Vázquez, M., and Liberato, M. L. R.: The role of consecutive extratropical cyclones Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien on drought busting during December 2019 in the Minho-Limia-Sil Hydrographic demarcation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13586, 2021.

HS8.1.1 – Modern challenges and approaches to modeling subsurface flow and transport across multiple scales

EGU21-4631 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1 | Highlight

Impact of seasonal variations and transient colmation layer properties on bacteria and virus transport in bank filtration 

Dustin Knabe, He Wang, Christian Griebler, and Irina Engelhardt

Bank filtration is a sustainable source for drinking water production in urbanized regions but is increasingly at risk by contamination with pathogenic bacteria and viruses from surface water receiving wastewater discharge. While recent advances have improved our process understanding for pathogen transport on laboratory scale, simulations and predictions on field scale under transient conditions, as in bank filtration, are still highly uncertain. To improve our understanding on field scale, we performed a sampling survey over 16 months at an observation well transect in a heterogeneous sand-gravel aquifer of an active bank filtration waterworks at the river Rhine in Germany. Water samples were collected from the river, the production well, and 4 multi-level observation wells. Samples were analysed for main anions/cations, and hygienic indicators (E. coli and coliform bacteria via plate counts, coliphages via plaque assay, and adenoviruses via ddPCR). A two-dimensional reactive transport model was set up using PFLOTRAN to simulate the transport of heat and dissolved species, aerobic respiration, denitrification, and colloid-based transport of bacteria and viruses. For the latter, adsorption to and desorption from the sediment, straining, blocking, and inactivation are considered. Model parameters were estimated from prior knowledge of the site or calibrated with the obtained data using particle swarm optimization.

Field observations show a strong seasonal variation of river hydraulics with up to 8 m difference in water level, a prolonged low in the summer/fall and short-termed river level increases in the winter. Aerobic respiration was strongly controlled by the temperature variation (6-24°C in groundwater), leading to an increase in oxygen consumption and limited denitrification during the warm summer/fall. Bacteria and virus concentrations in the groundwater were elevated following a flood in the first winter (up to 500 MPN/100mL coliforms, 2 PFU/100mL coliphages, 1000 copies/100mL adenovirus). Measurable concentrations were still observed during the summer (e.g., up to 10 MPN/100mL coliforms, 0.7 PFU/100mL coliphages, 500 copies/mL adenovirus), but concentrations were below the detection limit for most of the second winter, where no significant flood occurred. In the well closest to the river (40 m distance), the concentration reduction compared to the river varied over time between 1 to ≥4 log-units for coliforms, 1.5 to ≥3 log-units for coliphages, and 0.5 to ≥3 log-units for adenoviruses. The model results suggest the main driving processes for the variation in the bacteria and virus concentrations are (i) the changing groundwater velocity (driven by river level variations and pumping rate), (ii) occurrence of low dissolved oxygen concentrations which lower inactivation, and (iii) transient colmation layer properties (permeability and effective grain size). The colmation layer is affected by reworking of riverbed sediments during floods, bio-clogging during summer, and physical clogging due to constant forced infiltration caused by the bank filtration plant. This is supported by the observation of high bacteria concentrations in the aquifer for a short duration after pumps were reactivated following a 40-day maintenance period. Overall, bacteria and virus attenuation during bank filtration was high, only a strong flood resulted in significantly higher contaminant concentrations in the aquifer.

How to cite: Knabe, D., Wang, H., Griebler, C., and Engelhardt, I.: Impact of seasonal variations and transient colmation layer properties on bacteria and virus transport in bank filtration , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4631, 2021.

The spatial distribution of a solute undergoing advection and diffusion is impacted by the velocity variability sampled by tracer particles. In spatially structured velocity fields, such as porous medium flows, Lagrangian velocities along streamlines are often characterized by a well-defined correlation length and can thus be described by spatial-Markov processes. Diffusion, on the other hand, is generally modeled as a temporal process, making it challenging to capture advective and diffusive dynamics in a single framework. In order to address this limitation, we have developed a description of transport based on a spatial-Markov velocity process along Lagrangian particle trajectories, incorporating the effect of diffusion as a local averaging process in velocity space. The impact of flow structure on this diffusive averaging is quantified through an effective shear rate. The latter is fully determined by the point statistics of velocity magnitudes together with characteristic longitudinal and transverse lengthscales associated with the flow field. For infinite longitudinal correlation length, our framework recovers Taylor dispersion, and in the absence of diffusion it reduces to a standard spatial-Markov velocity model. This novel framework allows us to derive dynamical equations governing the evolution of particle position and velocity, from which we obtain scaling laws for the dependence of longitudinal dispersion on Péclet number. Our results provide new insights into the role of shear and diffusion on dispersion processes in heterogeneous media.

In this presentation, I propose to discuss: (i) Spatial-Markov models and the modeling of diffusion as a spatial rather than temporal process; (ii) The concept of the effective shear rate and its role in the diffusive dynamics of tracer particle velocities; (iii) The role of transverse diffusion and its interplay with velocity heterogeneity on longitudinal solute dispersion.

How to cite: Aquino, T. and Le Borgne, T.: The diffusing-velocity random walk: Capturing the interplay of diffusion and heterogeneous advection within a spatial-Markov framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-875, 2021.

EGU21-1941 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Global random walk solvers for fully coupled flow and transport in saturated/unsaturated porous media

Nicolae Suciu, Davide Illiano, Alexander Prechtel, and Florin Radu

We present new random walk methods to solve flow and transport problems in saturated/unsaturated porous media, including coupled flow and transport processes in soils, heterogeneous systems modeled through random hydraulic conductivity and recharge fields, processes at the field and regional scales. The numerical schemes are based on global random walk algorithms (GRW) which approximate the solution by moving large numbers of computational particles on regular lattices according to specific random walk rules. To cope with the nonlinearity and the degeneracy of the Richards equation and of the coupled system, we implemented the GRW algorithms by employing linearization techniques similar to the L-scheme developed in finite element/volume approaches. The resulting GRW L-schemes converge with the number of iterations and provide numerical solutions that are first-order accurate in time and second-order in space. A remarkable property of the flow and transport GRW solutions is that they are practically free of numerical diffusion. The GRW solvers are validated by comparisons with mixed finite element and finite volume solvers in one- and two-dimensional benchmark problems. They include Richards' equation fully coupled with the advection-diffusion-reaction equation and capture the transition from unsaturated to saturated flow regimes.  For completeness, we also consider decoupled flow and transport model problems for saturated aquifers.

How to cite: Suciu, N., Illiano, D., Prechtel, A., and Radu, F.: Global random walk solvers for fully coupled flow and transport in saturated/unsaturated porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1941, 2021.

EGU21-10118 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Analytical expressions for macrodispersion in three-dimensional Sub-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity fields

Laura Ceresa, Alberto Guadagnini, Monica Riva, and Giovanni Porta

Subsurface flow and transport settings are typically characterized by spatial variability of the underlying hydro-geological attributes (e.g., permeability and porosity) and a high degree of uncertainty associated with data and model parameter estimates. In this context, we rely on a stochastic approach and analyse conservative solute transport taking place within three-dimensional, sub-Gaussian domains with isotropic, exponential correlation structure of the associated log-conductivity fields. The flow is uniform in the mean and driven by an imposed average head gradient. We present an analytical solution based on a small perturbation approach that allows assessing the temporal evolution of longitudinal and transverse macrodispersion. Similar to what is observed for Gaussian log-conductivity domains, these are seen to attain a (Fickian) asymptotic regime after the solute plume has travelled a sufficient number of conductivity correlation scales. We also derive closed-form analytical expressions for other statistical moments of interest (e.g., seepage velocity and particle displacement covariance) and benchmark these solutions against numerical Monte Carlo simulations for various degrees of domain heterogeneity. This enables us to assess the extent at which a small perturbation approximation can embed the key features of macrodispersion within three-dimensional sub-Gaussian conductivity fields of increasing heterogeneity levels. Our results suggest that, similar to what already observed for Gaussian fields, the analytical formulation fully captures the trend of longitudinal macrodispersion for values of log-conductivity variance smaller than the unity, the goodness of the results becoming worse as the variance increases. Our formulation also captures directional displacement and seepage velocity covariances, even though the degree of agreement with their numerical Monte Carlo counterparts rapidly deteriorates with increasing conductivity variance. Particularly refined numerical grids are required to capture the nugget effect exhibited by the analytical longitudinal velocity covariance, thus posing a challenge to assess the system behaviour at short distances.

How to cite: Ceresa, L., Guadagnini, A., Riva, M., and Porta, G.: Analytical expressions for macrodispersion in three-dimensional Sub-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity fields, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10118, 2021.

EGU21-7289 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Double-diffusive depletion of layers in hydrothermal systems

Thomas Le Reun and Duncan Hewitt

In hydrothermal systems, the circulation of water through the porous matrix is strongly influenced by the joint effects of heat and salinity. Because of phase separation, layers of different salinities and temperature are thought to form, but their stability or their typical lifetime remains unclear. Moreover, the dynamics of heat transport across such a layered system is considerably enriched by double diffusive effects due to the slower diffusion of salinity relative to heat. Here, we study numerically the time evolution of an ideal two-layer configuration where a heavy layer of warm and salty water is overlain by a light layer of cold and fresh water. Thermal convection quickly develops in each layer and maintains a thin diffusive interface between the layers. There is long-standing controversy on the temporal evolution of such a system. Although Griffiths (1981) found experimentally that the sharp interface seemed to persist indefinitely, Schoofs & Hansen (2000) reported via numerical simulations systematic depletion and vanishing of the layers. We resolve this apparently inconsistency. In our simulations, we find systematic depletion of the two-layer initial condition in all cases. However, the timescale over which it occurs depends strongly on the ratio between salinity and temperature contributions to density. When salinity is weakly stabilising, thermal convection and layers are maintained over (very long) diffusive timescales. When salt is strongly stabilising, however, convection becomes quiescent over much shorter times and the sharp interface between layers is quickly diffused away. We determine scalings on the lifetime of the layers in both regimes as a function of the governing parameters.

How to cite: Le Reun, T. and Hewitt, D.: Double-diffusive depletion of layers in hydrothermal systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7289, 2021.

EGU21-7299 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Groundwater Flow Simulation in a Confined Aquifer Using Meshless Weak Strong Form

Sanjukta Das and Eldho t i

Understanding the complex groundwater flow behaviour is of utmost importance for a better and quicker management of groundwater. A thorough study of flow behaviour can be attained by modeling. Numerical simulation models have been proven to be an effective means of modeling of groundwater. The state-of-art meshfree simulation models, demonstrated in the various studies, have a clear advantage of allaying the meshing and remeshing complications. Meshless methods can be grouped into weak, strong and weak strong form methods. The strong form methods are truly meshfree, straightforward and efficacious, but they require a special treatment for the derivative boundaries. This imposes a limitation on the strong form methods in the application of groundwater studies, as the aquifers predominantly involve natural boundary conditions. The weak form methods, though effective in handling the derivative boundary conditions, require more computational time. The meshless weak strong (MWS) form combines the strengths of the strong and weak forms to obtain efficient and robust solutions with a lesser computational cost. This study aims at investigating the unexplored area of the applicability of the theoretically potent MWS method to the groundwater flow problems. In this context, the MWS model is developed by integrating the Meshless Local Petrov Galerkin (MLPG) method and the Radial Point Collocation Method (RPCM). The developed MWS model is applied to the flow studies in a hypothetical confined aquifer and is observed to result in fruitful solutions. Highlighting the advantages of the MWS method, satisfactory results could be obtained in atleast 30% lesser computational time compared to the weak form model. Thus, MWS method can be considered as an efficient tool to simulate large scale groundwater flow problems.

How to cite: Das, S. and t i, E.: Groundwater Flow Simulation in a Confined Aquifer Using Meshless Weak Strong Form, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7299, 2021.

EGU21-3703 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Meshfree models for simulation of reactive transport in groundwater systems

Aatish Anshuman and t i Eldho

Groundwater is the largest source for freshwater which plays an important role in the hydrological cycle. The pollution of groundwater is on the rise due to various natural and anthropogenic sources such as landfills, agricultural lands, and underground waste storage facilities etc. These pollutants can be subjected to reactions depending on the contaminant type and the subsurface environment along with advection and dispersion processes.  As groundwater is used in various human activities such as drinking, agriculture and industrial activities, it is essential to track the contaminants in groundwater for assessing possible environmental impacts. The complex phenomena of flow and contaminant transport are represented by partial differential equations (PDEs) which are solved numerically throughout the problem domain. Although Finite Difference method (FDM) and Finite Element Method (FEM) based models are conventionally used for these simulations, these methods suffer from certain instabilities due to the presence of mesh/grid, for example, numerical dispersion and artificial oscillation for advection and reaction dominant problems. Moreover, these methods are not suitable for adaptive analysis which requires meshing and re-meshing in each simulation making the problem highly computationally expensive. Here, we present a strong form meshfree method named Radial Point Collocation Method (RPCM) for modelling flow and transport in groundwater. In contrast to mesh-based methods, the problem domain is discretised using only nodes in the proposed method. Moreover, unlike the mesh-based methods, it produces stable solutions for advection and reaction dominant problems without using special techniques such as up-winding, adaptive re-meshing or, operator splitting. The performance of the model is tested against analytical solutions, FDM and FEM based models for different reactive transport problems in groundwater involving adsorption, decay, multi-species decay network and biodegradation.

How to cite: Anshuman, A. and Eldho, T. I.: Meshfree models for simulation of reactive transport in groundwater systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3703, 2021.

EGU21-7820 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

An efficient lubrication-based code for solving non-Newtonian flow in geological rough fractures

Alessandro Lenci, Yves Méheust, Mario Putti, and Vittorio Di Federico

The study of the flow in a single fracture is the starting point to understand the complex hydraulic behaviour of geological formations and fractured reservoirs, whose comprehension is of interest in many natural phenomena (e.g., magma intrusion) and the optimization of numerous industrial activities in fractured reservoirs (e.g., Enhanced Oil Recovery, drilling engineering, geothermal energy exploitation). Despite the considerable technical prospects of this topic, the associated mathematical complexity and computational burden have so far mostly discouraged investigations of the combined effects of fracture heterogeneity and of the complex rheology of relevant fluids. Indeed, magmas, foams, muds, and suspensions of natural colloids such as clay particles in water are complex fluids and often present in subsurface applications and natural processes. These fluids are characterized by a shear-thinning behavior, which can be well described by the Ellis model, a continuous three-parameter model that behaves as a power-law fluid at high shear rates and as a Newtonian fluid at low shear rates. The Ellis model parameters are: n the power law exponent, μ0 the low shear rates viscosity, and τ1/2 the shear rate such that μapp(τ1/2)=μ0/2. We use this rheological description in combination with the lubrication theory, which is a depth-averaged formalism permitting us to reduce the full 3-D problem to a 2-D plane formulation. It has been applied to study Newtonian flow in a single fracture for decades and, as far as the aperture gradient remains small (∇d«1), the approximation error introduced by this model is limited. We present here a lubrication-based numerical code aiming at simulating the flow of an Ellis fluid in rough-walled fractures. The code is composed of two modules: a 2D FFT-based fracture aperture field generator and a lubrication-based non-Newtonian flow solver. The former module generates a random aperture field d(x,y) with isotropic spatial correlations, given a mean aperture ⟨d⟩, a coefficient of variation σd/⟨d⟩, a Hurst exponent (H) and a correlation length (lc), reproducing realistic geometries of geological fractures. In the latter module, a 2-D finite volume scheme is adopted to solve the non-linear lubrication equation describing the flow of an Ellis fluid. The equation is discretized on a staggered grid, so that d(x,y) and the pressure field p(x,y) are defined at different locations. Computational efficiency is achieved by means of the inexact Newton algorithm, with the linearized symmetric system of equations solved via variable-fill-in Incomplete Cholesky Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient method (ICPCG), and a parameter-continuation strategy for the cases with strong nonlinearities. The code proves to be stable and robust when solving flow within strongly heterogeneous fractures (e.g., σd/⟨d⟩=1), even on very fine and coarse meshes (e.g., 214×214) and considering a wide range of power-law exponents (e.g., 0.1≤n≤1). The code is validated by comparing the results against analytical solutions (e.g., parallel plates model, sinusoidal profile) and full 3-D CFD simulations, considering different closures.

How to cite: Lenci, A., Méheust, Y., Putti, M., and Di Federico, V.: An efficient lubrication-based code for solving non-Newtonian flow in geological rough fractures, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7820, 2021.

EGU21-9384 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Flow directions of shallow groundwater in a boreal catchment

Jana Erdbrügger, Ilja van Meerveld, Jan Seibert, and Kevin Bishop

For most catchments, there is insufficient data to determine the location of the groundwater surface. For humid climates, it is, therefore, often assumed that the groundwater-surface follows the surface topography. This assumption allows using digital elevation models (DEMs) to estimate the flow directions and catchment boundaries. However, high-resolution elevation data also include many small-scale features that are unlikely to affect the direction of groundwater flow, or only affect it during specific conditions. Furthermore, flow directions may change during events or depending on the water level.

The optimal resolution of the DEM for determining groundwater flow directions is not known yet. Therefore, we studied how much DEM derived flow directions and catchment boundaries are affected by the resolution or smoothing of the elevation data for the Krycklan catchment in northern Sweden. We also measured the groundwater levels in two small sub-catchments to determine what DEM resolution best describes the actual groundwater-surface and flow directions.

For the topographic analyses, the LiDAR-based elevation data were first smoothed with various filters (e.g., Gaussian filters) and resampled to obtain lower resolution elevation data. We then determined the flow directions for these different DEMs. The aim was to determine where in the catchment the calculated flow directions are most sensitive to the resolution of the topographic data. The results of the topographic analyses show that for some areas, particularly flat areas, ridges, streambanks and locations where the local slope differs from the general slope, the calculated flow directions depend strongly on the resolution and smoothing of the elevation data.

To test how well the DEM based groundwater flow directions represent actual flow directions, we installed a dense (5-20 m spacing) network of shallow (1 to 6 m deep) groundwater wells (75 wells in total) in a 1 ha and a 2 ha gauged sub-catchment. The triangular nested design of the groundwater well network allowed us to determine the smaller (5 m) and larger scale (20 m) groundwater gradients. The recorded water levels were augmented and validated by manual measurements during the summers of 2018 and 2019. The high spatial and temporal resolution data allowed us to study the response of the groundwater level and the flow directions to different meteorological situations (e.g., large precipitation events after dry and wet conditions and during a very dry period in summer 2018). These observations indicate that the degree to which the groundwater-surface is a subdued copy of the surface topography varies throughout the year, and provides information on which DEM resolution most accurately represents the groundwater-surface and flow directions.

How to cite: Erdbrügger, J., van Meerveld, I., Seibert, J., and Bishop, K.: Flow directions of shallow groundwater in a boreal catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9384, 2021.

EGU21-9828 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Global sensitivity analysis of a low permeability media gas flow model with multiple transport mechanisms

Leonardo Sandoval, Monica Riva, Ivo Colombo, and Alberto Guadagnini

Methane is recognized as a potential energy source in the transition to carbon free energies. Appropriate modeling approaches to quantify methane migration in low permeability geomaterials can assist the appraisal of the feasibility of a methane recovery project. Wu et al. (2016) proposed a model enabling one to estimate the total mass flow rate of the gas as the sum of key processes, including (i) a surface diffusion and two weighted bulk diffusion components, (ii) slip flow, and (iii) Knudsen diffusion. In its isothermal form and taking pressure gradient as boundary condition, the model relies on 10 parameters. These are typically estimated through laboratory-scale experiments. Considering the mechanisms involved, such experiments are costly, time demanding, and their results are prone to uncertainty. The latter is also related to the intrinsic difficulties linked to replicating operational field conditions at the laboratory scale as well as to the desired transferability of results to heterogeneous field scale settings. Due to our still incomplete knowledge of the key mechanisms driving gas movement in low permeability geomaterials and the complexities associated with the estimation of model parameters, model outputs should be carefully analyzed considering all possible sources of uncertainty. In this sense, sensitivity analysis approaches may be used to enhance the quality of parameter estimation workflows, upon focusing efforts on parameters with the highest influence to target model outputs. We rely on two typical global sensitivity analysis approaches (i.e., Variance-based Sobol approach and Morris method) to analyze the behavior of the aforementioned gas migration model targeting low permeability media. Because of the complexity of the physical processes represented in the model and the typical frequency distributions of pore size in caprocks, the sensitivity analysis is performed in two differing settings, each corresponding to a given range of variability of characteristic pore sizes. When considering porous systems with pore size ranging between 2 and 100 nanometers, results based on Sobol indices identify (in decreasing order of importance) pore radius, porosity, pore pressure, and tortuosity as the parameters whose uncertainty significantly imprints model output uncertainty. Similar results are obtained through the analysis of the Morris indices, these identifying the pore radius parameter as the one with the highest contribution to non-linear (or interaction) effects on the model output. For tighter porous media (i.e., with pore size comprised between 2 and 10 nanometers), the Sobol indices analyses identify (in decreasing order of importance) pore pressure, porosity, blockage/migration ratio of adsorbed molecules, and pore radius as the most influential model parameters. The role of the blockage/migration ratio of adsorbed molecules suggests that surface diffusion is a dominant gas transport mechanism in these scenarios. The Morris approach identifies the same parameters as important, albeit in a different order of importance.

References.

Wu, K., Chen, Z., Li, X., Guo, C., Wei, M., 2016. A model for multiple transport mechanisms through nanopores of shale gas reservoirs with real gas effect-adsorption-mechanic coupling. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer 93, 408-426. doi: 10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2015.10.003

How to cite: Sandoval, L., Riva, M., Colombo, I., and Guadagnini, A.: Global sensitivity analysis of a low permeability media gas flow model with multiple transport mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9828, 2021.

EGU21-10305 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO2 plume migration at the Endurance CCS target site in the UK

Nele Wenck, Ann Muggeridge, Julian Barnett, and Samuel Krevor

Characterisation of multiphase flow properties is crucial in predicting large-scale fluid behaviour in the subsurface, for example carbon dixoide (CO2) plume migration at Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) storage sites. Many of the CO2 storage sites worldwide have displayed unexpected fluid flow behaviour. The CO2 injected underground has migrated in reservoirs away from injection points at much faster rates than had previously been predicted with reservoir simulations [1]. It has emerged that conventional flow simulations are not representing the impact of small-scale heterogeneities in multiphase flow properties, which is a key driver behind these unexpected CO2 migration observations [2]. Heterogeneity in the underlying rock structure can cause large variations in porosity and permeability, which manifest as capillary pressure heterogeneity [3-4]. At the low flow potentials typically encountered during CO2 injection, these heterogeneities can significantly impact fluid flow behaviour, typically observed as large saturation variations within the rock [5-6]. In this work, we have combined experimental and numerical methods to characterise the impact of capillary heterogeneities on plume migration at the Endurance proposed storage site to support the Northern Endurance Partnership (NEP) serving the Zero Carbon Humber and Net Zero Teesside projects in the UK. We built on an approach to characterising capillary heterogeneity at the core scale originating in the work of Krause et al. (2011). The workflow combines core flood experimental data with numerical simulations in a history match, with the experimental 3D saturation distribution as a matching target and the capillary pressure characteristics as a fitting parameter [6]. Through this a 3D digital model of the rock core is built, which incorporates spatial variations in permeability, porosity and capillary heterogeneity. We applied this characterisation effort to reservoir samples from a range of depths within the target interval. Subsequently, these digital core models were used in an upscaling procedure to characterise the impact of small-scale heterogeneities on field scale simulations. The workflow has enabled us to make informed predictions on the observed fluid behaviour at the Endurance storage site. The results emphasize the prevalent impact of small-scale capillary heterogeneities on CO2 plume migration, thus underscore the importance of characterising and incorporating them in reservoir models.

1. Global CCS Institute (2019), Global Status of CCS: 2019.
2. Jackson, S. J. and Krevor, S. (2020), ‘Small-Scale Capillary Heterogeneity Linked to Rapid Plume Migration During CO2 Storage’, Geophysical Research Letters 47(18).
3. Pini, R., Krevor, S.C. and Benson, S.M., 2012. Capillary pressure and heterogeneity for the CO2/water system in sandstone rocks at reservoir conditions. Advances in Water Resources, 38, pp.48-59.
4. Reynolds, C.A., Blunt, M.J. and Krevor, S., 2018. Multiphase flow characteristics of heterogeneous rocks from CO 2 storage reservoirs in the United Kingdom. Water Resources Research, 54(2), pp.729-745.
5. Krause, M.H., Perrin, J.C. and Benson, S.M., 2011. Modeling permeability distributions in a sandstone core for history matching coreflood experiments. SPE Journal, 16(04), pp.768-777.
6. Jackson, S. J., Agada, S., Reynolds, C. A. and Krevor, S. (2018), ‘Characterizing Drainage Multiphase Flow in Heterogeneous Sandstones’, Water Resources Research 54(4), 3139–3161.

How to cite: Wenck, N., Muggeridge, A., Barnett, J., and Krevor, S.: The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO2 plume migration at the Endurance CCS target site in the UK, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10305, 2021.

EGU21-10517 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Modeling the transport and retention of nanoparticles in a partially saturated pore 

J Jayaraj, S Majid Hassanizadeh, and N Seetha

Nanoparticles enter the subsurface through various sources such as land application of wastewater, landfill leachates, and reuse of treated wastewater for groundwater recharge. Vadose zone acts as a barrier to protect the groundwater by retaining a portion of the infiltrated nanoparticles at solid-water (SWI), and air-water interfaces (AWI), and air-water-solid contact region. Hence, it is important to understand the movement of nanoparticles in the vadose zone to assess the groundwater contamination potential. A mathematical model is developed to simulate the transport and retention of nanoparticles in a single partially-saturated pore in the soil by accounting for particle deposition at SWI, AWI, and contact region. The transport in the pore is modeled using the advection-diffusion equation and the mass exchange with the SWI, AWI, and contact region are modeled as first-ordered reactions that depend on the interaction energy of particles with the interfaces. Contact region is found to play the dominant role in particle retention than SWI and AWI. Pore-scale results indicate that pore size, half corner angle, particle size, contact angle of the particle with AWI and flow velocity influenced the retention the most. The pore-scale results from this study will be further used to upscale particle transport to the continuum scale using pore-network modeling.

How to cite: Jayaraj, J., Hassanizadeh, S. M., and Seetha, N.: Modeling the transport and retention of nanoparticles in a partially saturated pore , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10517, 2021.

EGU21-10623 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Inverse modeling of transient three-dimensional core-scale two-phase flows

Andrea Manzoni, Aronne Dell'Oca, Martina Siena, and Alberto Guadagnini

We consider transient three-dimensional (3D) two-phase (oil and water) flows, taking place at the core-scale. In this context, we aim at exploiting the full information content associated with available information of (i) the 3D distribution of oil saturation and (ii) the overall pressure difference across the rock sample, to estimate the set of model parameters. We consider a continuum-scale description of the system behavior upon relying on the widely employed Brooks-Corey model for the characterization of relative permeabilities and on the capillary pressure correlation introduced by Skjaeveland et al. (2000). To provide a transparent way of assessing the results of the inversion, we rely on a synthetic reference scenario. The latter is intended to mimic having at our disposal 3D and section-averaged distributions of (time-dependent) oil saturations of the kind that can be acquired during typical laboratory experiments. These are in turn corrupted by way of a random noise, to address the influence of experimental uncertainties. We focus on diverse scenarios encompassing imbibition and drainage conditions. We employ two population-based optimization algorithms, i.e., (i) the particle swarm optimization (PSO); and (ii) the differential evolution (DE), which enable one to effectively tackle the high-dimensionality parameters space (i.e., 12 dimensions in our setting) we consider. Model calibration results are of satisfactory quality for the majority of the tested scenarios, whereas the DE algorithm is associated with highest effectiveness.

References

S.M. Skjaeveland; L.M. Siqveland; A. Kjosavik; W.L. Hammervold Thomas; G.A. Virnovsky (2000). Capillary Pressure Correlation for Mixed-Wet Reservoirs SPE Res Eval & Eng 3 (01): 60–67. https://doi.org/10.2118/60900-PA

How to cite: Manzoni, A., Dell'Oca, A., Siena, M., and Guadagnini, A.: Inverse modeling of transient three-dimensional core-scale two-phase flows, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10623, 2021.

EGU21-12308 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Stochastic characterization of calcite dissolution rate from in-situ and real-time AFM imaging

Chiara Recalcati, Martina Siena, Gianlorenzo Bussetti, Monica Riva, Lamberto Duò, and Alberto Guadagnini

Carbonate dissolution processes are key in many environmental areas as well as in the industrial sector. In subsurface environments, a detailed knowledge of mineral dissolution/precipitation kinetic rate laws is a critical component in the context of, e.g., aquifer contamination assessment, geologic carbon sequestration, toxic waste disposal, or hydraulic fracturing of hydrocarbon reservoirs. The recent employment of advanced measurement instruments such as Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and Vertical Scanning Interferometry (VSI) enables direct observations of the mechanisms occurring on the mineral surface during the reaction, providing evidence that the dissolution process is strongly affected by several sources of variability at the local (i.e., micro-scale) mineral-fluid interface. In this context result, marked spatial heterogeneities in the dissolution rate are documented. Therefore, a change of perspective towards a quantification based on a stochastic approach is of primary importance. We propose to employ geostatistical tools to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of dissolution rate maps obtained from in-situ and real-time AFM imaging. We collect datasets of the surface topography of a millimeter-scale calcite sample subject to dissolution, from which we evaluate reaction rate maps. Our work is aimed at (1) characterizing the statistical behavior of topography and dissolution rate data and their spatial increments; (2) identifying an appropriate interpretive model for such statistics; and (3) evaluating quantitatively, through observed trends of model parameters, the temporal evolution of the spatial heterogeneity of reaction kinetics.

How to cite: Recalcati, C., Siena, M., Bussetti, G., Riva, M., Duò, L., and Guadagnini, A.: Stochastic characterization of calcite dissolution rate from in-situ and real-time AFM imaging, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12308, 2021.

In the two-year period 2018-2020 the Centre of Hydrology ‘Dino Tonini’ of the University of Padova developed the UNI-Impresa research project SWAT (Subsurface Water quality and Agricultural pracTices monitoring) to study the interactions between agricultural practices, mainly those involved in the production of Prosecco, and the wellhead protection areas in the province of Treviso (Italy). Specific experimental activities, integrated by a modelling analysis of the collected data, were developed to understand the processes affecting the vertical evolution of a glyphosate-based pesticide in the unsaturated soil up to a depth of 0.70 m BGL. The pesticide, along with a non-reactive tracer (potassium bromide), was applied in November 2018 in two experimental sites (Settolo-Valdobbiadene and Colnù-Conegliano) organized nearby well-fields supplying public water systems. Its evolution subjected only to the natural hydrological forcing compared to the infiltration dynamics of the tracer was locally monitored by collecting and analyzing soil and water samples along six months. Both the application and the monitoring activities were carried out in each experimental site on two 25 m2 parcels located at reciprocal distances of 30 m (Settolo) and 115 m (Colnù), obtaining a detailed information about the glyphosate vertical evolution. Each point-wise analysis highlights a strong tendency of the pesticide and its principal metabolite (AMPA) to be adsorbed to the soil matrix rather than to be dissolved in the infiltrated rainwater and carried toward the deeper layers of the soil. However, high concentrations of the pesticide spotted at the depth of -0.70 m suggest that preferential pathways and more intense precipitation events enhance the downward movement of the glyphosate, either dissolved in water or adsorbed to microscopic particles. Differences in the pesticide spatio-temporal evolution were observed between parcels belonging to the same site.  Despite the decay analyzed during the experiments is related to both the chemical-physical properties of the soil, the potential movement is dominated by the heterogeneity of the hydraulic properties of soil. Hence, the evaluation of the infiltration capacity was considered a low-cost proper method to extend the analysis to the field scale (~102 m characteristic length). In the experimental site of Colnù, the spatial variability of the soil infiltration capacity (mm/min) and dynamics has been assessed developing a series of tests using the double ring infiltrometer in 17 different positions within an area of 1.75 ha. The investigated area extends over two contiguous vineyards inside the wellhead protection area. Two tests positions correspond to the site parcels while the remaining were spatially distributed maintaining reciprocal distances ranging between 15 and 50 meters. The measured soil infiltration capacity shows a large spatial variability, up to two orders of magnitude. The geostatistical interpolation (kriging) of the achieved data gives a quantitative estimation of the soil vulnerability at the field scale based on the potentially infiltrating pesticide.

How to cite: Costa, L. and Salandin, P.: From point to field scale results: upscaling pointwise analysis of glyphosate vertical mobility through the spatial knowledge of the soil infiltration capacity , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15713, 2021.

EGU21-13436 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.1

Water budget and subsurface runoff determination for small Alpine catchments using WaSIM

Daniel Bergmeister, Klaus Klebinder, Bernhard Kohl, Ulrich Burger, Georg Orsi, and Florian Lehner

Assessing the water balance including subsurface runoff in high Alpine catchments is still a major challenge due to environmental and meteorological complexity, and mostly data-lacking hydrology. The aim of this study is the determination of the water balance components and water budget with focus on approximation of interflow, subsurface runoff and groundwater interactions, depending on sediment and bedrock properties.

In this process we investigate a small, high data providing Alpine catchment in the Wipp Valley (Tyrol, AT) to evaluate the best modelling approach in order to apply it on catchments along the Austrian Brenner axis. Thus, a direct model comparison of the main study catchment, with its (moderate data providing) neighbouring valley is carried out. The main study catchment (Padaster Valley) covers 11.2 km2 and is located east of Steinach am Brenner in the Wipp Valley. Due to its partially usage as a deposital site, respectively a landfill for the tunnel excavation material of the Brenner Base Tunnel, this valley represents a highly interesting site in a hydrological aspect. Thus, the Padaster Valley is highly monitored and hence predestined for hydrological investigations. Hydrological data such as discharge is measured high frequently on four gauges, meteorological data on two gauges. An additional study catchment (Navis Valley) covers 63 km2 and is located northerly next the Padaster Valley. Seven gauges provide meteorological data, however, continuous discharge data is just measured at the valley mouth. Further meteorological data for both areas will be contributed by the ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik), whose INCA model provide a high spatial resolution dataset of 1km. However, in order to gain a better overall understanding of subsurface runoff and hydrogeological processes, geological data will be considered and incorporated/integrated in the modelling process. This includes geological maps, - cross sections and geophysical analysis, which help to estimate the bedrock topography, and consequently the volume as well as deeper seated hydrogeological properties of the sediment cover. In this context, continuous data from 7 groundwater observation wells provide information regarding groundwater levels and hydraulic head. To increase the model accuracy regarding subsurface flow processes, subsurface-depending runoff types after Pirkl & Sausgruber (2015) are applied. Furthermore, several maps such as land use, surface runoff coefficient and soil map including grain size distribution of the layers have been compiled by in-situ fieldwork for this study. In order to model the water budget, subsurface runoff and overall hydrological slope properties, the distributed hydrological Model WaSIM (Richards version; Schulla, 1997) is applied. The model is based on a modular system which uses physically-based algorithms.

The present study is been carried out by the Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW) in collaboration with the Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT-SE).

How to cite: Bergmeister, D., Klebinder, K., Kohl, B., Burger, U., Orsi, G., and Lehner, F.: Water budget and subsurface runoff determination for small Alpine catchments using WaSIM, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13436, 2021.

HS8.1.3 – Innovative methods for the quantification of subsurface processes

Protection and management of groundwater resources demand high-resolution distributions of hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (Ss)) of aquifers. In the past, these parameters were obtained by traditional analytical solutions (e.g., Theis (1935) or Cooper and Jacob (1946)). However, traditional methods assume the aquifer to be homogeneous and yield the equivalent parameter, which are averages over a large volume and are insufficient for predicting groundwater flow and solute transport process (Butler & Liu, 1993). For obtaining the aquifer heterogeneity, some scholars have used kriging (e.g., Illman et al., 2010) and hydraulic tomography (HT) (e.g., Yeh & Liu, 2000; Zhu & Yeh, 2005) to describe the K distribution.

In this study, the laboratory heterogeneous aquifer sandbox is used to investigate the effect of different hydraulic parameter estimation methods on predicting groundwater flow and solute transport process. Conventional equivalent homogeneous model, kriging and HT are used to characterize the heterogeneity of sandbox aquifer. A number of the steady-state head data are collected from a series of single-hole pumping tests in the lab sandbox, and are then used to estimate the K fields of the sandbox aquifer by the steady-state inverse modeling in HT survey which was conducted using the SimSLE algorithm (Simultaneous SLE, Xiang et al., 2009), a built-in function of the software package of VSAFT2. The 40 K core samples from the sandbox aquifer are collected by the Darcy experiments, and are then used to obtain K fields through kriging which was conducted using the software package of Surfer 13. The role of prior information on improving HT survey is then discussed. The K estimates by different methods are used to predict the process of steady-state groundwater flow and solute transport, and evaluate the merits and demerits of different methods, investigate the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on groundwater flow and solute transport.

According to lab sandbox experiments results, we concluded that compared with kriging, HT can get higher precision to characterize the aquifer heterogeneity and predict the process of groundwater flow and solute transport. The 40 K fields from the K core samples are used as priori information of HT survey can promote the accuracy of K estimates. The conventional equivalent homogeneous model cannot accurately predict the process of groundwater flow and solute transport in heterogeneous aquifer. The enhancement of aquifer heterogeneity will lead to the enhancement of the spatial variability of tracer distribution and migration path, and the dominant channel directly determines the migration path and tracer distribution.

How to cite: Jiang, L., Sun, R., and Liang, X.: Predicting Groundwater Flow and Solute Transport in the Heterogeneous Aquifer Sandbox Using Different Parameter Estimation Methods, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3901, 2021.

EGU21-4081 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Impact of groundwater level variations induced by climate change on the mobilization of light refined petroleum hydrocarbon contaminants (LNAPLs)

Amélie Cavelan, Fabrice Golfier, Stéfan Colombano, Noële Enjelvin, Hossein Davarzani, Jacques Deparis, Catherine Lorgeoux, Anne-Julie Tinet, Constantin Oltean, and Pierre Faure

Light Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (LNAPLs) are one of the most important sources of soil and groundwater contamination worldwide. When they infiltrate through the unsaturated zone, part of the LNAPLs remains trapped by capillary forces. The others accumulate above the top of the water table, forming a floating ‘free’ phase able to generate a long-term dissolved LNAPL plume that durably alters the quality of the water resource. Seasonal variations in the groundwater level lead to significant vertical spreading of these light petroleum hydrocarbon contaminants at the capillary fringe, favoring their release into the air and groundwater. In the climate change context, the IPCC predicts an intensification of these groundwater level variations over the next century in response to variations in rainfall intensity and frequency, whose effects are increased by the use of water resources. This context may strongly impact the mobilization of these organic contaminants and their release to the environment. To study these phenomena, it is, therefore, essential to better understand the impact of the groundwater level fluctuation patterns on the LNAPLs mobilization processes. To this end, an original experimental system combining indirect geophysical (complex electrical conductivity, permittivity), in-situ physical-chemical (pH, Eh, temperature), and geochemical measurements was developed at the GISFI station (Homécourt, France). This device allows the assessment and the comparison of the amount and nature of LNAPLs release into the atmosphere and water from contaminated soil during two groundwater level fluctuations scenarios: one corresponding to the ‘actual’ rainfall pattern based on regional climate records; the other based on the predictions of the most extreme IPCC scenario. This study will be conducted at different scales (laboratory decametric columns and 2 m3 lysimeters) and on soils of different geological complexity. The remobilized hydrocarbons will be collected via suction cups and gas collection chambers as the groundwater table fluctuates and will be regularly analyzed (GC-MS, FTIR). The complementarity of the monitoring methods aims to provide a better understanding of the fate of these organic pollutants at contaminated sites and the evolution of the associated environmental risks in the coming years, under the expected effect of climate change. Preliminary results concerning the hydrocarbon pollution migration through the unsaturated zone and the distribution of the LNAPL will be presented to illustrate the capacity of this new instrumental system.

This work is partly funded by the DEEPSURF project "Lorraine Université d’Excellence", ANR-15-IDEX-04-LUE".

How to cite: Cavelan, A., Golfier, F., Colombano, S., Enjelvin, N., Davarzani, H., Deparis, J., Lorgeoux, C., Tinet, A.-J., Oltean, C., and Faure, P.: Impact of groundwater level variations induced by climate change on the mobilization of light refined petroleum hydrocarbon contaminants (LNAPLs), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4081, 2021.

EGU21-5142 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Estimation of the fluid-fluid interfacial area using kinetic interface sensitive tracers in dynamic porous media experiments

Alexandru Tatomir, Huhao Gao, Hiwa Abdullah, and Martin Sauter

Fluid-fluid interfacial area (IFA) in a two-phase flow in porous media is an important parameter for many geoscientific applications involving mass- and energy-transfer processes between the fluid-phases. Schaffer et al. (2013) introduced a new category of reactive tracers termed kinetically interface sensitive (KIS) tracers, able to quantify the size of the fluid-fluid IFA. In our previous experiments (Tatomir et al., 2018) we have demonstrated the application of the KIS tracers in a highly-controlled column experiment filled with a well-characterized porous medium consisting of well-sorted, spherical glass beads.

In this work we investigate several types of glass-bead materials and natural sands to quantitatively characterize the influence of the porous-medium grain-, pore-size and texture on the mobile interfacial area between an organic liquid and water. The fluid-fluid interfacial area is determined by interpretation of the breakthrough curves (BTCs) of the reaction product of the KIS tracer. When the tracer which is dissolved in the non-wetting phase meets the water, an irreversible hydrolysis process begins leading to the formation of two water-soluble products. For the experiments we use a peristaltic pump and a high precision injection pump to control the injection rate of the organic liquid and tracer.

A Darcy-scale numerical model is used to simulate the immiscible displacement process coupled with the reactive tracer transport across the fluid-fluid interface. The results show that the current reactive transport model is not always capable to reproduce the breakthrough curves of tracer experiments and that a new theoretical framework may be required.

Investigations of the role of solid surface area of the grains show that the grain surface roughness has an important influence on the IFA. . Furthermore, a linear relationship between the mobile capillary associated IFA and the inverse mean grain diameter can be established. The results are compared with the data collected from literature measured with high resolution microtomography and partitioning tracer methods. The capillary associated IFA values are consistently smaller because KIS tracers measure the mobile part of the interface. Through this study the applicability range of the KIS tracers is considerably expanded and the confidence in the robustness of the method is improved.

 

 

Schaffer M, Maier F, Licha T, Sauter M (2013) A new generation of tracers for the characterization of interfacial areas during supercritical carbon dioxide injections into deep saline aquifers: Kinetic interface-sensitive tracers (KIS tracer). International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 14:200–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.01.020

Tatomir A, Vriendt KD, Zhou D, et al (2018) Kinetic Interface Sensitive Tracers: Experimental Validation in a Two-Phase Flow Column Experiment. A Proof of Concept. Water Resources Research 54:10,223-10,241. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022621

How to cite: Tatomir, A., Gao, H., Abdullah, H., and Sauter, M.: Estimation of the fluid-fluid interfacial area using kinetic interface sensitive tracers in dynamic porous media experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5142, 2021.

EGU21-7541 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Inferring saline tracer transport characteristics from time-lapse GPR experiments

Peter-Lasse Giertzuch, Alexis Shakas, Bernard Brixel, Joseph Doetsch, Mohammadreza Jalali, and Hansruedi Maurer

Monitoring and characterization of flow and transport processes in the subsurface has been a key focus of hydrogeological research for several decades. Such processes can be relevant for numerous applications, such as hydrocarbon and geothermal reservoir characterization and monitoring, risk assessment of soil contaminants, or nuclear waste disposal strategies.

Monitoring of flow and transport processes in the subsurface is often challenging, as they are usually not directly observable. Here, we present an approach to monitor saline tracer migration through a weakly fractured crystalline rock mass by means of Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and we evaluate the data quantitatively in terms of a flow velocity field and localized difference GPR breakthrough curves (DRBTC).

Two comparable and repeated tracer injection experiments were performed within saturated rock on the decameter scale. Time-lapse single-hole reflection data were acquired from two different boreholes during these experiments using unshielded and omnidirectional borehole antennas. The individual surveys were analyzed by difference imaging techniques, which allowed ultimately for tracer breakthrough monitoring at different locations in the subsurface. By combining the two complimentary GPR data sets, the 3D tracer velocity field could be reconstructed.

Our DRBTCs agree well with measured BTCs of the saline tracer at different electrical conductivity monitoring positions. Additionally, we were able to calculate a DRBTC for a location not previously monitored with borehole sensors. The reconstructed velocity field is in good agreement with previous studies on dye tracer data at the same research locations. Furthermore, we were able to resolve separate flow paths towards different monitoring locations, which could not be inferred from the electrical conductivity sensor data alone. The GPR data thus helped to disentangle the complex flow field through the fractured rock.

Out technique can be adapted to other use cases such as 3D monitoring of fluid migration (and thus permeability enhancement) during hydraulic stimulation and tracing fluid contaminants – e.g. for nuclear waste repository monitoring.

How to cite: Giertzuch, P.-L., Shakas, A., Brixel, B., Doetsch, J., Jalali, M., and Maurer, H.: Inferring saline tracer transport characteristics from time-lapse GPR experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7541, 2021.

EGU21-8705 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Estimate of hydrodynamic parameters with a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion using GPR surveys

Rohianuu Moua, Nolwenn Lesparre, Jean-François Girard, Benjamin Belfort, and François Lehmann

We develop a methodology to estimate soil hydrodynamic parameters from a water infiltration experiment monitored with a GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar). Such an experiment, carried out on both controlled and natural site, consists in applying a water charge in a tank on the soil surface. During the water infiltration, the water layer thickness above the soil surface in the tank and the GPR response on the infiltration water front are monitored. The infiltration experiment is then modelled numerically using hydrogeological parameters which describe the constitutive relationships between water content, pressure and hydraulic conductivity. In that goal, we use the WAMOS-1D code which combines the 1D Richards equation and the Mualem – van Genuchten model. From the hydrogeological models outputs and petrophysical relationships, corresponding GPR velocity models are created to generate the resulting GPR signals. Then, an inversion algorithm couples both the hydrogeological and the geophysical models to seek the optimal hydrodynamic parameters. The inverse problem objective function is calculated from the estimated arrival time of the GPR waves reflected by the water infiltration front and compared to the measured ones. Preliminary inversion tests explore the hydrodynamic parameters space using synthetic data. First results show that the saturated hydraulic conductivity parameter can be estimated. Further tests are performed to improve both our experimental set-up and methodology and allow an estimation of the other hydrodynamic parameters. An emerging idea is to complete the objective function by analyzing the arrival time corresponding to additional reflectors to the water infiltration front.

How to cite: Moua, R., Lesparre, N., Girard, J.-F., Belfort, B., and Lehmann, F.: Estimate of hydrodynamic parameters with a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion using GPR surveys, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8705, 2021.

EGU21-8861 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Experimental and Numerical Modelling of Self-Potential Response to Saltwater Intrusion

Eric Benner, Gerard Hamill, Georgios Etsias, Thomas Rowan, Pablo Salinas, Christopher Thomson, Jesús Fernández Águila, Mark McDonnell, Raymond Flynn, Adrian Butler, and Matthew Jackson

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) in coastal aquifers poses a significant hazard to freshwater security for many of the world’s population centers. SWI is challenging to monitor and model due to the physical complexity of real aquifers. Self-Potential (SP) has been an important method for monitoring the subsurface for many years. Previous studies have suggested that borehole measurements of SP could be used to identify saline interface movement and provide advance warning of imminent saline breakthrough at an abstraction borehole. SP produced during SWI comprises the combined effects of electro-kinetic potential, arising from transport of excess charge in response to water potential (head) gradients, and exclusion-diffusion potential, arising from transport of excess charge in response to ion (salt) concentration gradients. SP can have advantages over other geophysical methods, such as electrical resistivity tomography and borehole fluid electrical conductivity measurements, because the effect of  moving saltwater fronts can be determined using a relatively small number of localized probes.

We quantitatively investigate the relationship between SP and SWI using experimental and numerical modelling with the aim of reproducing experimentally measured SP response via simulation. Building on well-established methods, a novel laboratory setup has been developed to optically monitor SWI in a thin homogenous aquifer while simultaneously recording SP data at multiple probe points. A Matlab solver is used to calculate SP data from simulated hydrodynamic SWI data computed by the fixed-grid finite element software SUTRA. Similarly, finite element SWI simulations using adaptive meshing are carried out using the IC-FERST software, which directly computes hydrodynamic and SP solutions. We compare these numerical results with experimental data and show similarity in SP signal trends as functions of brine movement near probe locations. We conclude with a discussion of the merits of SP modelling and its suitability for interpreting SP signals for monitoring and characterization of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers.

How to cite: Benner, E., Hamill, G., Etsias, G., Rowan, T., Salinas, P., Thomson, C., Fernández Águila, J., McDonnell, M., Flynn, R., Butler, A., and Jackson, M.: Experimental and Numerical Modelling of Self-Potential Response to Saltwater Intrusion, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8861, 2021.

EGU21-10268 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Initial Investigations into Microbial Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Bedretto Tunnel

Andrew Acciardo, Moira Arnet, Bernard Brixel, Nima Gholizadeh Doonechaly, Quinn Wenning, Marian Hertrich, and Cara Magnabosco

Over 70% of Earth’s bacteria and archaea live in the subsurface. These rock-dwelling microorganisms are capable of exerting considerable influence on their environment by altering and recycling nutrients, as well as inducing changes to fluid flow paths through bioclogging. Subsurface life, therefore, has considerable implications for both natural and engineered subsurface environments. The Bedretto tunnel, located within the Swiss Alps, is 5,218 meters long and is host to the Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies (BULGG), which was built to study the feasibility of large-scale geothermal energy storage and extraction. The tunnel, with a maximum overburden of approximately 1,650m, is embedded within both gneiss and Rotondo granite and offers an ideal location to investigate the biogeochemical feedbacks associated with natural fluids as well as the effect that stimulation has on the biological and chemical properties of subsurface fluids. For these reasons, a multi-year, monthly survey of fracture fluids at over 20 locations across the entire length of the tunnel has been carried out since August 2020 with the goal of performing 16S rRNA sequencing of cells captured by 0.22µm Millipore Sterivex filters and cell enumeration by epifluorescence microscopy of cells fixed with ethanol. By studying the microorganisms inhabiting BULG, we will be able to understand how the physical-chemical heterogeneities of the subsurface influence microbial physiology and community structure. Preliminary results of DNA extractions from the cells concentrated on Sterivex filters show that there is a measurable amount of DNA found in the fluids of the Bedretto tunnel that correlates with pH, indicating the presence of microbial communities which may vary with changes in fluid chemistry. With continued monitoring through 2021, we will determine whether there is significant variability of microbial taxa at different locations within the tunnel and the relationship between the hydrochemical properties of the fluids and the microbial communities. Alongside the profiling survey, whole genome sequencing as well as targeted virome sequencing procedures will be developed and used to learn more about the genetic and metabolic capacity of the microbial communities and to better understand how viruses can influence their hosts in such an environment. These results will be compared to other subsurface environments around the globe to gain a more holistic understanding of microbial dynamics in the terrestrial subsurface. Together, these results provide a new and important tool for tracking subsurface processes.

How to cite: Acciardo, A., Arnet, M., Brixel, B., Gholizadeh Doonechaly, N., Wenning, Q., Hertrich, M., and Magnabosco, C.: Initial Investigations into Microbial Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Bedretto Tunnel, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10268, 2021.

EGU21-13111 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Integrative hydrogeo-ecological assessment of the quantitative and qualitative response of groundwater to hydrological extremes

Steffen Birk, Johannes Haas, Alice Retter, Raoul Collenteur, Heike Brielmann, Christine Stumpp, and Christian Griebler

An integrative interdisciplinary approach is currently developed to investigate groundwater systems in alpine and prealpine environments and how they respond to hydrological extremes such as droughts, heavy rain and floods in terms of water quantity, hydrochemical quality, and ecological status. The new approach is aimed at improving the understanding of the interaction between physical, chemical, and biological processes in groundwater responses to extreme events as well as developing indicators suitable for an integrative monitoring and management of the aquifers. For this purpose, observation wells of the existing state hydrographic monitoring net have been selected within the Austrian part of the Mur river basin, stretching from the alpine origin to the national border in the foreland. The investigation area thus comprises diverse hydrogeological settings and land-use types. The selected observation wells have long-term records of groundwater levels and are used for sampling campaigns under different hydrological conditions. Groundwater level fluctuations are evaluated using drought indices and statistical approaches, such as auto-correlation and cross-correlation with precipitation and stream stages. Our hydrochemical analyses of groundwater and surface waters also consider compounds indicative of agricultural sources (e.g., nitrate), wastewater-borne micro-pollutants, and stable isotopes of water. These indicators are used to identify different drivers controlling water origin and quality. The ecological status is characterized using microbiological measures, such as total number of bacteria and microbial activity, groundwater fauna, and the qualitative composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM). First results demonstrate a deterioration of water quality from groundwater to surface water and from the alpine region towards the foreland, corresponding to the more intense agricultural and urban land use in the foreland. Linkages between water quality and hydrological conditions are currently being evaluated and will be further examined using UV-Vis spectrometry for high-resolution in-situ monitoring of water quality changes (DOM and nitrate) at selected observation wells.

How to cite: Birk, S., Haas, J., Retter, A., Collenteur, R., Brielmann, H., Stumpp, C., and Griebler, C.: Integrative hydrogeo-ecological assessment of the quantitative and qualitative response of groundwater to hydrological extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13111, 2021.

EGU21-13238 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Relaxation-induced flow of an Ellis fluid in a smooth fracture

Valentina Ciriello, Alessandro Lenci, Sandro Longo, and Vittorio Di Federico

The process known as hydrofracturing, aimed at improving reservoir productivity, is complex and includes several steps. During the first, high-pressure injection, a network of fractures and cracks is created in the stimulated zone; then proppant is introduced into the network to open the supporting fractures; when the injection stops, the pressure drops and elastic relaxation of the fluid-driven fractures pushes the fracturing fluid back into the injection well. Once recovered, these fluids are typically processed for reuse due to their versatility and economic value; in addition, unrecovered fluid tends to compromise fracture conductivity or migrate into the subsurface environment. Optimizing the recovery rate is critical regardless of the reservoir product (oil, gas, heat). Because the goal is to create fractures that remain open, inevitably some of the fluid is not drained.

The rheology of fracturing fluids is typically described by a non-Newtonian rheology, showing a nonlinear relationship between stress and strain; this allows for flexibility and several design goals to be achieved at the same time.

We adopt a conceptual model to represent the fracture medium, consisting of a single planar fracture with relaxing walls, exerting a force on the fluid proportional to hλ, with h the time-varying aperture and λ a non-negative exponent; an overload of f0 on the fracture can help slow or accelerate the closure process. The fracture is in a vertical plane perpendicular to a horizontal hole or in a horizontal plane perpendicular to a vertical hole. At time t = 0, pressure pe at the outlet begins to act, the elastic response of the wall compresses the fluid and forces a backflow to the outlet as a result of the no-flow boundary condition at x=L. Gravity effects are absent in horizontal fractures and negligible with respect to pressure gradients for fractures in any other plane.  

Fluid rheology is described by the three-parameter Ellis model, which well represents the typical shear-thinning rheology of hydro-fracturing fluids and the Newtonian and power-law coupling behavior at low and high shear rates, respectively.

Under viscous flow and lubrication approximation, the time-varying aperture and discharge rate, the space- and time-varying pressure field, and the time to drain a given fraction of the fracture volume are derived as a function of geometry (length and initial aperture), elastic wall parameters, fluid properties, outlet pressure and overload. The parameters of the problem are combined in a dimensionless number N that tunes the interplay between Newtonian and power-law rheology. The late-time behavior of the system is practically independent of the rheology, since the Newtonian nature of the fluid prevails at low shear stress. In particular, the aperture and discharge scale are asymptotic with time as t ∝ 1/(2+λ) and t ∝ 1/(3+λ) for pe-f0=0; otherwise, the aperture tends to a constant, residual value proportional to (pe-f0)λ. A case study with equally spaced fractures adopting realistic geometric, mechanical and rheological parameters is examined: two fluids normally used in fracking technology exhibit completely different behaviors, with backflow dynamics and drainage times initially not dissimilar, and subsequently varying by orders of magnitude.

How to cite: Ciriello, V., Lenci, A., Longo, S., and Di Federico, V.: Relaxation-induced flow of an Ellis fluid in a smooth fracture, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13238, 2021.

EGU21-15042 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Investigating wettability-controlled fluid displacements in heterogeneous rock using fast laboratory based X-ray microtomography

Arjen Mascini, Marijn Boone, Veerle Cnudde, and Tom Bultreys

Multiphase fluid flow is a common process in geological systems and has important applications such as aquifer remediation and Carbon Capture and Storage (CSS). Understanding how pore-scale fluid displacements link to the macroscopic descriptions of multiphase flow forms an important gap in our current understanding of this process. At the mesoscale, between the pore and the continuum scale, the distribution of the fluids in the pore network develops into different patterns depending on e.g. flow regime, pore geometry and surface chemistry. Over the years, significant effort has been put into identifying the underlying pore-scale displacement mechanisms[e.g. 1] and classifying these displacement patterns in model porous media based on e.g. the capillary number, viscosity ratio and wettability[2]–[4]. However, subsurface rocks tend to be far more complex in terms of pore structure and wettability than the model materials on which these classifications are based. We hypothesize that pore-scale complexities might induce local variations in the viscous-capillary force balance which could translate in qualitatively new multiphase flow behavior.

To test this hypothesis, we use fast laboratory based X-ray microtomography to image n-decane-brine drainage and imbibition experiments performed on two medium-grained calcareous sandstone samples of the Luxembourg Sandstone Formation (lower Jurassic) at slow flow rates (Ca 10-9). One of these samples was treated using octadecyltrichlorosilane (OTS) to induce an mixed wettability distribution. The experiments were imaged continuously at 60s per 360° rotation using a laboratory based X-ray microtomography scanner optimized for fast image acquisition to generate a time series of images with a reconstructed voxel size of 8µm/vx. We quantify fluid displacements on a pore-by-pore basis to investigate the times scales associated with the fluid displacements. We identify a previously undescribed type of filling event that occurred during water-flooding under mixed-wet conditions, where certain large pores fill at a time scale that is four orders of magnitude slower than the Haines jumps that occur in neighboring pores. This displacement type is responsible for about 20% of the total displacement of the n-decane phase in our sample during water-flooding. The rate-limited behavior of these events can be explained by the fact that under mixed-wet conditions the persistent connectivity of the fluid phases allows the invasion of poorly connected, large pores through low-conductivity pore regions which locally control the flow rates.

[1]        R. Lenormand, C. Zarcone, en A. Sarr, ‘Mechanisms of the displacement of one fluid by another in a network of capillary ducts’, J. Fluid Mech., nr. 135, pp. 337–353, feb. 1983.
[2]        R. Lenormand, E. Touboul, en C. Zarcone, ‘Numerical models and experiments on immiscible displacements on immiscible displacements in porous media’, J. Fluid Mech., nr. 189, pp. 165–187, jun. 1988.
[3]        B. Zhao e.a., ‘Comprehensive comparison of pore-scale models for multiphase flow in porous media’, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., vol. 116, nr. 28, pp. 13799–13806, jul. 2019, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1901619116.
[4]        R. Holtzman, ‘Effects of Pore-Scale Disorder on Fluid Displacement in Partially-Wettable Porous Media’, Sci. Rep., vol. 6, nr. 1, p. 36221, dec. 2016, doi: 10.1038/srep36221.

How to cite: Mascini, A., Boone, M., Cnudde, V., and Bultreys, T.: Investigating wettability-controlled fluid displacements in heterogeneous rock using fast laboratory based X-ray microtomography, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15042, 2021.

EGU21-15255 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Hydraulic tomography using joint inversion of head and flux data 

Behzad Pouladiborj, Olivier Bour, Niklas Linde, and Laurent Longuevergne

Hydraulic tomography is a state of the art method for inferring hydraulic conductivity fields using head data. Here, a numerical model is used to simulate a steady-state hydraulic tomography experiment by assuming a Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field (also constant storativity) and generating the head and flux data in different observation points. We employed geostatistical inversion using head and flux data individually and jointly to better understand the relative merits of each data type. For the typical case of a small number of observation points, we find that flux data provide a better resolved hydraulic conductivity field compared to head data when considering data with similar signal-to-noise ratios. In the case of a high number of observation points, we find the estimated fields to be of similar quality regardless of the data type. A resolution analysis for a small number of observations reveals that head data averages over a broader region than flux data, and flux data can better resolve the hydraulic conductivity field than head data. The inversions' performance depends on borehole boundary conditions, with the best performing setting for flux data and head data are constant head and constant rate, respectively. However, the joint inversion results of both data types are insensitive to the borehole boundary type. Considering the same number of observations, the joint inversion of head and flux data does not offer advantages over individual inversions. By increasing the hydraulic conductivity field variance, we find that the resulting increased non-linearity makes it more challenging to recover high-quality estimates of the reference hydraulic conductivity field. Our findings would be useful for future planning and design of hydraulic tomography tests comprising the flux and head data.

How to cite: Pouladiborj, B., Bour, O., Linde, N., and Longuevergne, L.: Hydraulic tomography using joint inversion of head and flux data , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15255, 2021.

EGU21-15721 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Diffusion limited mixing in heterogeneous porous media

Mayumi Hamada and Pietro de Anna

A pore-scale description of the transport and mixing processes is particularly relevant when looking at biological and chemical reactions. For instance, a microbial population growth is controlled by local concentrations of nutrients and oxygen, and chemical reaction are driven by molecular-scale concentration gradients. The heterogeneous flow field typically found in porous media results from the contrast of velocities that deforms and elongates the mixing fronts between solutes that often evolves through a lamella-like topology. For continuous Darcy type flow field a novel framework that describes the statistical distribution of concentration being transported was recently developed (Le Borgne et al., JFM 2015). In this model, concentrations in each lamella are distributed as a Gaussian-like profile which experiences diffusion in the transverse direction while the lamella is elongated by advection along the local flow direction. The evolving concentration field is described as the superposition of each lamella. We hypothesize that this novel view, while perfectly predicting the distribution of concentration for Darcy scale mixing processes, will breakdown when the processes description is at the pore scale. Indeed the presence of solid and impermeable boundaries prevents lamella concentration to diffuse freely according to the a Gaussian shape, and therefore changes the mixing front profile, the lamella superposition and elongation rules. Previous work (Hamada et al, PRF, 2020) demonstrated that the presence of solid boundaries leads to an enhanced diffusion and thus fast homogenization of concentrations. In a purely diffusive process the local mixing time is reduced by a factor of ten with respect to the continuous case and concentration gradient are dissipated exponentially fast while a power law decrease is observed in continuous medium. To investigate the impact of these mechanisms on mixing we developed an experimental set-up to visualize and quantify the displacement of a conservative tracer in a synthetic porous medium. The designed apparatus allows to obtain high resolution concentration measurements at the pore scale. We show that the resulting mixing measures, computed in terms of concentration probability density function and dilution index values, diverge qualitatively and quantitatively from what happens in a continuous domain. These observations suggest that description of pore-scale diffusion-limited mixing requires model that takes into account the confined nature of porous medium, otherwise we will tend to overestimate concentration value and neglect the fast diffusion dynamic taking place at microscopic level.

How to cite: Hamada, M. and de Anna, P.: Diffusion limited mixing in heterogeneous porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15721, 2021.

EGU21-16083 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Chemotaxis under flow disorder shapes microbial dispersion in porous media 

Pietro de Anna, Amir A. Pahlavan, Yutaka Yawata, Roman Stocker, and Ruben Juanes

Natural soils are host to a high density and diversity of microorganisms, and even deep-earth porous rocks provide a habitat for active microbial communities. In these environ- ments, microbial transport by disordered flows is relevant for a broad range of natural and engineered processes, from biochemical cycling to remineralization and bioremediation. Yet, how bacteria are transported and distributed in the sub- surface as a result of the disordered flow and the associ- ated chemical gradients characteristic of porous media has remained poorly understood, in part because studies have so far focused on steady, macroscale chemical gradients. Here, we use a microfluidic model system that captures flow disorder and chemical gradients at the pore scale to quantify the transport and dispersion of the soil-dwelling bacterium Bacillus subtilis in porous media. We observe that chemotaxis strongly modulates the persistence of bacteria in low-flow regions of the pore space, resulting in a 100% increase in their dispersion coefficient. This effect stems directly from the strong pore-scale gradients created by flow disorder and demonstrates that the microscale interplay between bacterial behaviour and pore-scale disorder can impact the macroscale dynamics of biota in the subsurface.

How to cite: de Anna, P., Pahlavan, A. A., Yawata, Y., Stocker, R., and Juanes, R.: Chemotaxis under flow disorder shapes microbial dispersion in porous media , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16083, 2021.

EGU21-16173 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Filtration by porous media: a microfluidics approach

filippo miele, Marco dentz, Veronica morales, and Pietro de Anna

The transport of colloids in porous media is governed by deposition on solid surfaces and pore-scale flow variability. Classical approaches, like colloid filtration theory (CFT), do not capture behaviours observed experimentally, such as non-exponential steady state deposition profiles and heavy tailed BreakThrough Curves (BTC). In the framework of CFT, a key assumption is that the colloid attachment rate 𝑘 is constant and empirically estimated via a posteriori macroscopic data fitting. We design a novel experimental set-up based on time-lapse microscopy and continuous injection of fluorescent monodisperse colloids into a folded microfluidics device (1mt total length) designed with a controlled level of 2D spatial disorder. This set-up allows us to i) measure both BTC and deposition profile over several orders of magnitude and ii) to perform particle tracking and Lagrangian analysis of single colloid's trajectories. Based on this analysis, we propose a stochastic model that takes into account pore scale heterogeneities in terms of correlation length, velocity and attachment rate distribution, that captures the anomalous behaviour shown by the experimental data.

How to cite: miele, F., dentz, M., morales, V., and de Anna, P.: Filtration by porous media: a microfluidics approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16173, 2021.

EGU21-16206 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Microbial dispersal throgh dead-end cavities

David Scheidweiler, Ankur Deep Bordoloi, and Pietro de Anna

Predicting dispersal patterns is important to understand microbial life in porous media as soils and sedimentary environments. We studied active and passive dispersal of bacterial cells in porous media characterized by two main pore features: fast channels and dead-end cavities. We combined experiments with microfluidic devices and time-lapse microscopy to track individual bacterial trajectories and measure the breakthrough curves and pore scale bacterial abundance. Escherichia coli cells dispersed more efficiently than the non-motile mutants showing a different retention in the dead-end pores. Our findings highlight the role of diffusion dominated dead-end pores on the dispersal of microorganisms in porous media.

How to cite: Scheidweiler, D., Bordoloi, A. D., and de Anna, P.: Microbial dispersal throgh dead-end cavities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16206, 2021.

EGU21-16218 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.3

Effect of dead-end pores on anomalous transport in porous media

Ankur Bordoloi, David Scheidweiler, and Pietro de Anna

Heterogeneity in porous media may occur due to non-uniformity in the sizes or the shapes of grains that comprise the medium. We investigate the transport of colloids in a heterogeneous porous medium engineered in microuidic channels and featuring complex grain structures. Using experiment and numerical simulation, we investigate the velocity fields and the breakthrough curves of colloidal transport in a model porous medium by emphasising on the effects of dead-end pores. We characterize the porous structure via image processing and isolate dead-end sites from the remaining pore spaces. The study reveals complex flow structures inside dead-end sites that contribute to the small-scale velocity and long tails in the breakthrough curve. We provide a statistical model to capture the complex dynamics of the breakthrough curve.

How to cite: Bordoloi, A., Scheidweiler, D., and de Anna, P.: Effect of dead-end pores on anomalous transport in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16218, 2021.

HS8.1.4 – Subsurface flow and contaminant transport in heterogeneous media: concepts, modelling, observations and challenges in applications such as risk assessment and remediation.

EGU21-665 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Push-pull flows reveal the scalar signature of chaos in porous media

Joris Heyman, Daniel R. Lester, and Tanguy Le Borgne

Recent works have shown that laminar flows through porous media generate Lagrangian chaos at pore scale, with strong implications for a range of transport, reactive, and biological processes in the subsurface. The characterization and understanding of mixing dynamics in these opaque environments remains an outstanding challenge. We present a novel experimental technique based upon high-resolution imaging of the scalar signature produced by push-pull flows through various porous materials (beads, gravels, sandstones) at high Péclet number. We show that this method provides a direct image (see below) of the invariant unstable manifold of the chaotic flow, while allowing a precise quantification of the incompleteness of mixing at pore scale. In the limit of large Péclet numbers, we demonstrate that the decay rate of the scalar variance is directly related to the Lyapunov exponent of the chaotic flow. Thus, this new push-pull method has the potential to provide a complete characterization of chaotic mixing dynamics in a large class of opaque porous materials.

 

How to cite: Heyman, J., Lester, D. R., and Le Borgne, T.: Push-pull flows reveal the scalar signature of chaos in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-665, 2021.

EGU21-15447 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Impact of chaotic mixing on reactive transport: experiment in porous media at high Pe and Da

Hugo Sanquer, Joris Heyman, Tanguy Le Borgne, and Khalil Hanna

Solute transport in porous media plays a key role in a range of chemical and biological processes, including contaminant degradation, precipitation, dissolution and microbiological dynamics. Increasing evidences have shown that the conventional complete mixing assumption at the pore scale can lead to a strong overestimation of reaction rates. Recent 3D imaging experiments of mixing in porous media suggest that these pore scale chemical gradients may be sustained by chaotic mixing dynamics. However, the consequences of such chaotic mixing on reactive processes are unknown.

In this work, we use reactive transport experiments coupled to 3D imaging to investigate the impact of micro-scale chaotic flows on mixing-limited reactions in the fluid phase.  We use optical index matching and laser-induced fluorescence to characterize the pore scale distribution of reactive product concentration for a range of Peclet and Damkhöler numbers. We use these measurements to develop a reactive lamellar theory that quantifies the impact of pore scale chemical gradients induced by chaotic mixing on effective reaction rates. These results provide new perspectives for upscaling reactive transport processes in porous media.

How to cite: Sanquer, H., Heyman, J., Le Borgne, T., and Hanna, K.: Impact of chaotic mixing on reactive transport: experiment in porous media at high Pe and Da, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15447, 2021.

EGU21-8636 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Impact of flow conditions on pore-scale solute mixing: experiments in heterogeneous 2D porous media

Oshri Borgman, Turuban Régis, Baudouin Géraud, Le Borgne Tanguy, and Méheust Yves

Solute mixing mediated by flow in porous media plays a significant role in controlling reaction rates in subsurface environments. In many practical cases, incomplete mixing—inhomogeneous solute concentrations—occurs at the pore-scale, limiting local and thus upscaled reaction rates, and renders their prediction based on effective dispersion coefficients derived from dispersion models (or by assuming Taylor-Aris dispersion) inaccurate. We perform solute transport experiments in transparent, quasi-two-dimensional, soil analog models to investigate the relationships between pore-scale solute dispersion and mixing under different flow conditions. We use Fluorescein as a conservative tracer and record its fluorescence intensity in monochrome images at fixed time intervals. We convert the fluorescence intensity to solute concentration fields based on a calibration curve obtained with various homogeneous solute concentrations and subsequently compute concentration gradients. Our images provide evidence for incomplete mixing at the pore-scale and show strong gradients transverse to the overall flow direction. We fit the mean longitudinal concentration profile to an analytical solution of the advection-dispersion equation and compute the effective longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Based on the lamellar mixing theory, we also infer an effective diffusion coefficient relevant to the mean concentration gradient’s dynamics. By comparing these two diffusion/dispersion coefficients in saturated flow conditions, we show that while their values are similar at low Péclet, their scaling behaviors as a function of Péclet are different. Hence, as pointed out by several previous studies, modeling reactive transport processes requires accounting for a mixing behavior driven by a diffusive process that cannot entirely be described by the solute dispersion coefficient. We extend this work by varying the saturation degree in the experiments and our samples' structural heterogeneity to investigate how flow desaturation and porous medium structure impact solute mixing.

How to cite: Borgman, O., Régis, T., Géraud, B., Tanguy, L. B., and Yves, M.: Impact of flow conditions on pore-scale solute mixing: experiments in heterogeneous 2D porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8636, 2021.

EGU21-5242 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Numerical simulation of kinetic interface sensitive tracers in two-phase flow in porous media applied in two-dimensional experimental setups

Hiwa Abdullah, Huhao Gao, Martin Sauter, and Alexandru Tatomir

The newly developed kinetic interface sensitive (KIS) tracers have been the focus of research in the past decade, as a new method to determine the mobile interfacial area between immiscible fluids in porous media. An accurate and reliable interfacial area determination is crucial to several industrial applications and the geoscientific research.

In this work we investigate the relationship between the concentration breakthrough curves of the KIS tracer, consequently the specific interfacial area and the evolution of the mobile non-wetting-phase front.

Up to now, such laboratory experiments have been conducted only in columns, quasi-one-dimensional systems. In this study we consider two-dimensional domains filled with porous material where immiscible displacement of water by oil takes place. The presence of heterogenous inclusions leads to perturbations in the fluid interface and causes fingers. By means of numerical modelling we investigate these effects and the results will help as a basis in the design of a new two-dimensional flume setup.

An analysis is performed for different viscosity ratios, capillary numbers corresponding to different capillary pressure-saturation relationships, injection rates and geometrical heterogeneity. We found that the presence of higher or lower permeability inclusions have a significant but clearly distinct impact on the destruction and/or production of the fluid-fluid interfacial area. Lower permeability inclusions increase the overall area of the front, compared to a decrease in the overall area for higher permeability inclusions. By increasing the interfacial area an increase of the reactive tracer concentration is observed. The mobile interfacial area is evaluated at the front of the saturation profile by using a cut-off value from the saturation profile, and then the area of the mobile concentration of the reactive tracer is calculated.

How to cite: Abdullah, H., Gao, H., Sauter, M., and Tatomir, A.: Numerical simulation of kinetic interface sensitive tracers in two-phase flow in porous media applied in two-dimensional experimental setups, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5242, 2021.

EGU21-8710 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Suitability of 2D modelling to evaluate flow properties in 3D porous media

Ester Marafini, Michele La Rocca, Aldo Fiori, Ilenia Battiato, and Pietro Prestininzi

Limitations stemming from the employment of 2D models to investigate the properties of 3D flows in porous media are generally overlooked. In this study, the extent to which 2D modelling can be employed for the representation of genuinely 3D flows in porous media is quantified. To this scope, Representative Elementary Volume (REV) sizes of 2D and 3D media sharing the same porosity are compared. The spatial stationarity of several Quantities of Interest (QoIs) namely, porosity, permeability, mean and variance of velocity, is numerically evaluated. In order to extend conclusions to transport phenomena, the analysis of the velocity variance, which is closely associated to the hydrodynamic dispersion process, is included. Porous media adopted in this study are composed by spheres and disks in 3D and 2D domains respectively, where both 2D and 3D geometries are characterized by random locations. Specifically, for 3D random packings creation, a sphere packing generator program is used. Pore scale flow is simulated by means of the Lattice Boltzmann Model (LBM): the LBM is employed as a numerical flow solver to reproduce the Darcy's experiment through the aforementioned domains. The LBM represents a powerful tool to model flow in porous media and it is able to accurately predict flow paths, permeability and hydraulic conductivity. Hydraulic QoIs are analysed at steady state conditions. To this purpose, the flow velocity field is used to inspect stationarity. The quantitative approaches adopted in the REV assessment procedure allow one to determine the residual variability of the quantity associated to the REV and consequently the level of accuracy that the modeller wants to achieve with respect to the QoIs. Such criteria show that REV estimations through 2D models are much larger than their 3D counterparts. In conclusion, pore scale LBM simulations highlight that the 2D approach leads to inconsistent results, due to the profound difference between 2D and 3D porous flows.

How to cite: Marafini, E., La Rocca, M., Fiori, A., Battiato, I., and Prestininzi, P.: Suitability of 2D modelling to evaluate flow properties in 3D porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8710, 2021.

EGU21-2290 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

An open-source integrated solution for flow and transport in random heterogeneous porous media

Eugenio Pescimoro, Matteo Icardi, Federico Municchi, and Marco Bianchi

Due to the increasing challenges to preserve water quality and supply at global scale, groundwater flow modeling has become a tool of pivotal relevance for remediation, implementation of policies, and design of applications for recharge management. The strain towards faster and more reliable hydrogeological simulations triggered the development of upscaled and multi-scale approaches employing different diffusion and dispersion models that are still the object of much debate in the community. Our ongoing study focuses on the up scaling of solute transport through heterogeneous geological domains by means of an extensive three-dimensional simulation study, based on a new open-source C++ library, built on top of the well-know finite-volume library OpenFOAM®. We integrate the whole workflow, from geostatistical random field generators to flow and transport solvers with integrated post-processing capabilities. The robustness, scalability and flexibility of the library makes it suitable framework for the development, testing, and application of upscaling techniques.  

Being the subsurface inaccessible by nature, the appeal to geostatistical techniques is a well-established approach to construct a realistic domain for flow and transport simulations. However,  additional challenges are posed by the numerical simulation of highly heterogeneous materials. Indeed, the problem is twofold: on one side it is not always possible to characterize the heterogeneity in a deterministic way, while on the other side numerical methods which are effective for elliptic and parabolic equations solved over homogeneous domains might suffer in heterogeneous media. Both challenges were effectively tackled using the open-soruce library OpenFOAM whose implementation and capabilities will be illustrated. Preliminary results on flow and transport simulations performed on truncated pluri-Gaussian permeability fields will be shown and the influence of geostatistical metrics (e.g. correlation lengths, variance, geological entropy) on the flow and transport results (e.g. average velocity and breakthrough curves) analysed.

Extensions to variable-density, mobile-immobile, and multi-rate mass transfer formulations are also presented in the context of the EU project “SECURe”.

How to cite: Pescimoro, E., Icardi, M., Municchi, F., and Bianchi, M.: An open-source integrated solution for flow and transport in random heterogeneous porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2290, 2021.

EGU21-1746 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Scale-dependent dispersion for solute transport in bounded formations

Qinzhuo Liao, Gang Lei, Dongxiao Zhang, and Shirish Patil

We present a new method to estimate the displacement covariance and macrodispersivity for solute transport in bounded formations. Here we use circulant embedding, which is based on the fast Fourier transform and is much more efficient than eigen-decomposition for the factorization of random spatial fields. We compute the displacement covariances using the analysis of variance approach and introduce an interpolation process to significantly reduce the number of forward simulations. Once the effect of each eigenvector on the displacement covariance is obtained, it is unnecessary to rerun the simulator for different spatial covariance functions or anisotropy ratios, which saves a large amount of computational effort. The proposed method is validated in various tests in two-dimensional and three-dimensional examples and accurately matches the results from the Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the longitudinal dispersivity is not sensitive to the boundaries, while the transverse and vertical dispersivities are greatly affected. The method is applied to the Borden site and provides a better explanation of the observed data after considering the effect of vertical boundaries. These results show that our method could serve as a promising tool for studying and predicting the characteristics of solute transport in heterogeneous media.

How to cite: Liao, Q., Lei, G., Zhang, D., and Patil, S.: Scale-dependent dispersion for solute transport in bounded formations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1746, 2021.

Groundwater quality is of increasing concern due to the ubiquitous release of micropollutants, often originating from surface water. Micropollutants comprise a wide range of substances such as pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PCPs), and pose risks to groundwater contamination due to their high persistence and toxicity. Although biodegradation is a major process for the removal of organic contaminants in aquifers, the interplay of hydrogeochemical conditions, microbial diversity and micropollutant dissipation at low concentrations remains yet poorly understood. We developed here an integrative approach to understand and predict the factors affecting micropollutant dissipation within the surface-/ground-water transition zone. Compound-specific Isotope Analysis (CSIA) was used to evaluate micropollutant transformation based on changes in the ratio of stable isotopes (i.e., 13C/12C and 15N/14N). The responses of aquifer microbes – the key players during contaminant transformation – to micropollutant exposures was examined through biomolecular approaches, proving advantageous in combination with CSIA.

 

We examined the dissipation of a micropollutant mixture in two lab-scale aquifer systems fed with river water collected from an agricultural area, thus representing the highly reactive surface-/ground-water transition zone. The micropollutant mixture included legacy and currently used pesticides such as atrazine, terbutryn, S-metolachlor and metalaxyl. Caffeine and metformin were also examined as anthropogenic compounds with physico-chemical properties close to currently used pesticides. Changes in bacterial diversity was examined in both aquifer systems during variations of micropollutant exposures under static hydrological conditions. It is hypothesized that such variations may induce bacterial changes and thus alter micropollutant transformation pathways. To this end, three periods of micropollutant injections during 140 d were induced as follow: (i) a first pulse (about 25 µM) to identify dissipation processes and bacterial adaptation to micropollutants, (ii) a constant injection (2 pore volumes) at 10 fold lower concentrations (chronic exposure phase), and (iii) a second pulse injection (25 µM) to examine whether transformation of micropollutants was enhanced. Concentration breakthrough curves (BTCs) of atrazine, terbutryn and metaxyl showed sorption as the main dissipation process for the three periods, whereas both sorption and degradation were observed for caffeine and S-metolachlor. Carbon and nitrogen CSIA further supported the in situ transformation of caffeine and S-metolachlor (Δδ13C of ≥ 4‰ and ≥ 2‰, respectively), while no significant enrichment of 13C and 15N were observed for atrazine, terbutryn and metalaxyl (Δδ13C < 2‰). In parallel, surface-water microcosm experiments showed half-life times of atrazine, terbutryn and metalaxyl of >200 days. Microbial diversity is currently examined in pore water and sand samples. A numerical model is under development to improve the interpretation of micropollutant dissipation in the highly reactive surface-/ground-water transition zone based on concentrations, CSIA and bacteria diversity data obtained in this study. Altogether, our results demonstrated degradation capacity within the laboratory systems, mainly for caffeine and S-metolachlor, and highlight the persistence and risk to long-term groundwater contamination of both legacy and currently used pesticides.

How to cite: Prieto Espinoza, M., Weill, S., and Imfeld, G.: Reactive transport of micropollutants in laboratory aquifers: combining Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis (CSIA) and biomolecular approaches, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7864, 2021.

EGU21-1533 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Effects of hydropeaking on groundwater mixing: from laboratory experiments to field scale observations

Mónica Basilio Hazas, Francesca Ziliotto, Giorgia Marcolini, Massimo Rolle, and Gabriele Chiogna

Hydropeaking, an artificial flow regime consisting on strong and frequent river stage fluctuations, is known to have important effects on groundwater-surface water interaction. It influences the transient dynamics of water flow and also of solute and energy fluxes between aquifers and rivers. In this work, we focus on the effects of hydropeaking at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We start the investigation at the laboratory scale using quasi-two-dimensional flow-through experiments in which we can characterize  flow and transport mechanisms, as well as the topology of the flow field, at high spatial and temporal resolution. We measure and model the spatial moments, the dilution index and the Okubo-Weiss parameter of a transient plume, and find a correlation between changes in flow topology and mixing enhancement. We then investigate a two-dimensional field scale cross section representative of the Adige aquifer in North-East Italy, where two rivers differently affected by hydropeaking influence groundwater flow, and we investigate the system considering hourly and mean daily fluctuations in the river stage. We characterize the transient groundwater dynamics for this and for other aquifers affected by hydropeaking using the Townley number, analyzing the potentiality of such systems for chaotic advection. Finally, at regional scale we use a three-dimensional transient model to show how the Adige aquifer is differently affected by hydropeaking depending on dry and wet years. Moreover, we apply the continuous wavelet transform to identify the main temporal scales of variability detected in the groundwater fluctuations and how they change with time. Our work therefore highlights the relevance of the effect of hydropeaking on groundwater flow and transport processes, and its impact on flow topology and mixing enhancement at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

How to cite: Basilio Hazas, M., Ziliotto, F., Marcolini, G., Rolle, M., and Chiogna, G.: Effects of hydropeaking on groundwater mixing: from laboratory experiments to field scale observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1533, 2021.

EGU21-3782 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Diffusive contaminant transport in a multi-layered aquifer-aquitard system

Seonggan Jang and Minjune Yang

A flow chamber experiment was conducted to investigate solute diffusion in a multi-layered aquifer-aquitard system. The two-dimensional flow chamber consisted of a finite thickness aquitard (kaolinite, 2 cm) bounded by two parallel aquifers at the top (unconfined aquifer, 2 cm) and bottom (confined aquifer, 4 cm). New Coccine (red dye) of 500 mg/L in the top aquifer and distilled water in the bottom aquifer were injected with 0.02 mL/min for 13 days. One-dimensional analytical solutions were developed for advection and diffusion through a finite aquitard and compared with the measured data to evaluate experimental validation. The simulated aquitard concentration profiles (E > 0.97) and breakthrough curve (E = 0.95) showed good agreement with the measured data. During the experiment, the penetration distance in the aquitard increased over time and the vertical concentration distribution showed a linear profile through the aquitard after 7 days of loading in the top aquifer, indicating steady-state diffusion. The New Coccine diffused across the aquitard to the bottom aquifer after 1 day of loading. The bottom aquifer concentration increased at early times and was maintained after 7 days of loading (11 ~ 12 mg/L). This study provides experimental validation of the developed analytical solutions and quantitatively evaluates contaminant occurrences of the confined aquifer through the aquitard.

How to cite: Jang, S. and Yang, M.: Diffusive contaminant transport in a multi-layered aquifer-aquitard system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3782, 2021.

Characterization of spatially variable aquifer properties is a necessary first step towards modeling flow and transport. An emerging technique in hydraulic tomography, known as diffusivity tests, consist of injecting (or pumping) a volume of water through short segments of a well for a short time and measuring the travel time of the peak of the head signal at different points in the surrounding aquifer volume. In our stochastic model, the specific storage is assumed to be constant, while the hydraulic conductivity of the heterogeneous aquifer is modeled as a random lognormal field. The axi-symmetric anisotropic structure is characterized by a few parameters (logconductivity mean and variance and horizontal and vertical integral scales). The mean and variance of the peak travel time are then determined as a function of distance from an instantaneous source by solving the flow equation using a first-order approximation in the logconductivity variance. The mean travel time is recast in terms of the equivalent conductivity, which decreases from the harmonic mean near the source to the effective conductivity in uniform flow for a sufficiently large distance. Similarly, the variance drops from its maximum near the source to a small value.

A different type of tomographic test is the constant-rate pumping one. We propose to apply the first order stochastic approach to the data from the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research site (BHRS) to characterize the aquifer properties by estimating heterogeneity statistical parameters. Equivalent properties are first calculated by matching a homogeneous aquifer solution to the pointwise data to obtain a spatially varying hydraulic conductivity (Keq) and storativity (Ss,eq). Then the statistical properties of K and Ss are to be computed by a best fit between the theoretically derived statistical moments of the equivalent random properties (Keq, Ss,eq) and those from field measurements. Our preliminary results indicate that the proposed stochastic methodology is robust and reliable as well as computationally more efficient than the conventional hydraulic tomography techniques.

How to cite: Cheng, K. B., Dagan, G., and Rabinovich, A.: Stochastic Modeling of Diffusivity and Constant-Rate Pumping Tests in Heterogeneous Aquifers in a Tomographic Setup and Its Application to Field Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2680, 2021.

EGU21-9469 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

A Comparison of Six Transport Models of the MADE-1 Experiment Implemented with Different Types of Hydraulic Data

Alraune Zech, Sabine Attinger, Alberto Bellin, Vladimir Cvetkovic, Gedeon Dagan, Marco Dentz, Peter Dietrich, Aldo Fiori, and Georg Teutsch

Six conceptually different transport models are applied to the MADE-1 field tracer experiement as a first major attempt for model comparison. The objective was to show that complex mass distributions in heterogeneous aquifers can be predicted without calibration of transport parameters - solely making use of structural and flow data.

The models differ in their conceptualization of the heterogeneous aquifer structure, computational complexity, and use of conductivity data obtained from various observation methods (Direct Push Injection Logging - DPIL, Grain Size Analysis, Pumping Tests and Flowmeter). They agree in the underlying physical transport processes, none of them considering mass transfer. Predictive capability is assessed by comparing results to observed longitudinal mass distributions of the MADE-1 experiment. We deal with data uncertainty indicated by decreasing rates of recovered mass by focusing the comparison on measures, such as peak location, position and shape of bulk mass and leading tail, and we do not normalize observation data.

Comparison of models reveals that the predictions of the solute plume agree reasonably well with observations if the models are underlined by a few parameters of close values: mean velocity, a parameter reflecting log-conductivity variability and a horizontal length scale related to conductivity spatial correlation. The robustness of the results implies that conservative transport models with appropriate conductivity upscaling strategies of various observation data provide reasonable predictions of plumes longitudinal mass distribution as long as key features are taken into account.

How to cite: Zech, A., Attinger, S., Bellin, A., Cvetkovic, V., Dagan, G., Dentz, M., Dietrich, P., Fiori, A., and Teutsch, G.: A Comparison of Six Transport Models of the MADE-1 Experiment Implemented with Different Types of Hydraulic Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9469, 2021.

EGU21-4417 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Effects of the aquifer heterogeneity in heat production from low enthalpy geothermal systems

Antonio Zarlenga, Maria Ines Di Dato, Claudia D'Angelo, and Alessandro Casasso

Open-loop shallow geothermal systems, which exploit shallow aquifers as a heat source or sink, have a great potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions related to the heating and cooling of buildings. In order to limit the depletion of groundwater resources water is generally reinjected into the same aquifer after the heat exchange, as a consequence a thermal plume develops within the aquifer. Furthermore a share of the reinjected water may come back to the abstraction wells, inducing a progressive thermal alteration of the abstracted water temperature that may even result in the plant failure. This phenomenon, known as thermal recycling, strongly depends on the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. The design models commonly adopted in the practice assume a homogeneous domain with constant hydraulic conductivity, this assumption, however, is not realistic: neglecting the natural heterogeneity of hydraulic properties of the porous medium may result in large prediction errors.

In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of the different heat transport dynamics in aquifers on the thermal plume development. A stochastic model, which explicitly considers the spatial variability of the hydrological properties, such as the hydraulic conductivity, is developed for low enthalpy geothermal systems. The thermal breakthrough curve at the extraction well is obtained by applying a Lagrangian model and assuming a steady state velocity field. Relevant quantities of thermal recycling, such as the thermal breakthrough time, are adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the hydrogeological and geometrical parameters of the systems.

The results of our study emphasize how the correct representation of the aquifer heterogeneity is fundamental in the design of shallow geothermal systems and in the correct heat plume assessment.

How to cite: Zarlenga, A., Di Dato, M. I., D'Angelo, C., and Casasso, A.: Effects of the aquifer heterogeneity in heat production from low enthalpy geothermal systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4417, 2021.

EGU21-1922 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Effect of soil heterogeneity on the optimal design of in-situ groundwater bioremediation systems

Tinesh Pathania, T Iype Eldho, and Andrea Bottacin-Busolin

The use of optimization approaches for designing in-situ groundwater bioremediation systems has been demonstrated in a number of previous studies under the assumption of homogenous soil. However, in real applications the soil is typically heterogeneous and knowledge of the spatial conductivity distribution is, to some degree, uncertain. Here, a systematic attempt is made to quantify the effect of soil heterogeneity on the optimal design of in-situ bioremediation systems. To determine the optimal placement of injection and extraction wells within the computational domain, the meshless element-free Galerkin method (EFGM) was coupled with particle swarm optimization (PSO), resulting in a simulation-optimization (S/O) model which is referred to as BIOEFGM-PSO. A hypothetical case study is considered where the design of an in-situ bioremediation system is optimized considering different degrees of heterogeneity of the porous medium. Heterogeneous conductivity fields are generated using a pseudo-random field generator with same mean and varying variance and correlation lengths. The BIOEFGM-PSO model was then applied to the different soil scenarios, and the resulting bioremediation costs were compared. Results show that the optimal placement of injection and extraction wells depends on the soil properties and, on average, heterogeneous soils have higher in-situ bioremediation costs compared with a homogeneous soil with the same mean conductivity. This highlights the importance of considering soil heterogeneity in designing cost-effective in-situ bioremediation systems, and further demonstrates the general applicability of the BIOEFGM-PSO model.

How to cite: Pathania, T., Eldho, T. I., and Bottacin-Busolin, A.: Effect of soil heterogeneity on the optimal design of in-situ groundwater bioremediation systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1922, 2021.

EGU21-2378 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Regional structures influencing the groundwater geochemistry around geothermal springs: A case study from Padiyathalawa, Sri Lanka

Dilshan Bandara, Thomas Heinze, Mahinda Premathilake, and Stefan Wohnlich

Hydro-geochemistry of groundwater plays an important role in understanding the characteristics of a geothermal system. Mixing zones of geothermal deep waters and shallow groundwater can be identified through chemical distribution maps and help identify geothermal flow paths. The flow paths can be used to calculate the chemical values of the geothermal water leading to a characterization of the heat source. In combination with knowledge about regional structures, the geochemical distribution can further reveal unknown geothermal zones.

In the present study, the geochemical distribution of the groundwater is studied from samples collected from shallow and deep wells, with special reference to the regional structures present in the terrain. The study area was selected as a 20 • 20 km area centered around the Padiyathalawa hot spring field in Sri Lanka. From the results, two main geochemical anomalous zones are identified, especially with the increased values of electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), and Sulphate distribution maps. Those two zones include the hot spring itself as well as an area in ~10 km distance in the NE direction from the hot spring. Both zones are characterized by crosscutting structures of dolerite dykes and shear zones. Due to the shear zones, there are deep-seated fractures facilitating water flow from deeper layers towards the surface. This uprising water mixes with the shallow groundwater, affecting the general geochemical values of the shallow groundwater system.

Common minerals in Dolerite in Sri Lanka are Pyroxenes, Feldspar, Ilmenite, Magnetite, and Pyrite with minor amounts of other minerals. The increased EC values in both before mentioned zones relate with higher amounts of iron due to dissolution and mixing processes in regions with fractured Dolerite. Similarly, the increased concentration of Sulphates in the groundwater can be related to Pyrite from the fractured Dolerite, as microbial oxidization of Pyrite leads to origin of Sulphates. The increase of TDS can be interpreted as shallow water mixing with deep geothermal water, which contains a higher amount of minerals from the fractured dolerites.

The similar geochemical anomalies in those two zones can be associated with cross-cutting Dolerite dikes and existing faults in the shear zones at greater depth, subsequently mixing uprising deep geothermal water with shallow groundwater. A similar geochemistry and tectonic setting suggest similar flow paths from the underground and therefore also similar geothermal conditions at both spots. However, due to the rural and remote region, only one of the two before mentioned areas is known as a hot spring field. Thermal signatures dissipate much more quickly in the shallow groundwater than the mineral composition and might not be significant for measurement. Geochemical signatures of groundwater can therefore be a substantial help to locate geothermal springs, identify source mechanisms and characterize fluid flow paths.

How to cite: Bandara, D., Heinze, T., Premathilake, M., and Wohnlich, S.: Regional structures influencing the groundwater geochemistry around geothermal springs: A case study from Padiyathalawa, Sri Lanka, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2378, 2021.

EGU21-2700 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Soil Column Experiments to Study Leaching and Transformation Behaviour of 8:2 diPAP and 6:2 diPAP

Eva Weidemann, René Lämmer, Thorsten Stahl, Bernd Göckener, Mark Bücking, Jörn Breuer, Janine Kowalczyk, Hildegard Just, and Matthias Gassmann

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are fluorinated anthropogenic compounds of which numerous have a high thermal stability, high surface tension, water and oil repellence. PFASs are used e.g. as surfactants, in agrochemical products and in fire extinguishing foams. Due to negative effects to the environment and human health some compounds are already declared as Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) or Substances of Very High Concern (SVHC). The behaviour of PFASs in environmental matrices can differ dependent on the molecular structure and environmental conditions. Sorption, for example, depends on soil characteristics, compound properties such as the carbon chain length and the functional group. When PFASs are found in soils, the knowledge of factors affecting the leaching behaviour in soil can be helpful to assess plant availability and risk of groundwater contamination.

In some contamination cases, e.g. Rastatt/Baden-Baden, Germany, PFASs precursors such as polyfluoroalkyl phosphate diesters (diPAPs) are present in soil and are transformed into PFAAs (perfluoroalkyl acids), a sub-group of PFASs, which are stable in the environment. To study the behaviour of diPAPs in soil, 8:2 diPAP and 6:2 diPAP were applied to 50 cm soil-filled columns with a concentration of 1 mg per kg soil. For two years, the columns are watered on 3-5 days per week with an average weekly natural rainfall of Baden-Württemberg. The leaching water is collected and analysed every two weeks. After the first year, there was no detection of precursors in the leaching water. The main products were, in accordance with literature, PFPeA (Perfluoropentanoic acid) and PFHxA (Perfluorohexanoic acid) for the precursor 6:2 diPAP and PFHpA (Perfluoroheptanoic acid) and PFOA (Perfluorooctanoic acid) for the precursor 8:2 diPAP. The breakthrough peak of PFPeA (864 µg/l) and PFHxA (487 µg/l) was found in week nine after the start of the experiment, the major peak of PFHpA (124 µg/l) in week 15 and the peak of PFOA (303 µg/l) in week 25. Even though the major breakthrough of PFAAs was over after the first year, all of them are still found in leaching water in relatively constant concentrations: ~40 µg PFPeA/l, ~20 µg PFHxA/l (6:2 diPAP) and ~5 µg PFHpA/l, ~50 µg PFOA/l (8:2 diPAP). Thus, as a preliminary result after the first year, there is a higher mass of PFPeA and PFHxA in the leachate compared to PFHpA and PFOA, which can be led back to higher transformation rates of 6:2 diPAP than 8:2 diPAP.

After two years, the soil columns will be cut horizontally in sections, and the soil will be analysed for precursors and PFAAs in order to calculate a mass balance. This will provide more insight into the transformation and mobilisation behaviour of investigated diPAPs and PFAAs.

How to cite: Weidemann, E., Lämmer, R., Stahl, T., Göckener, B., Bücking, M., Breuer, J., Kowalczyk, J., Just, H., and Gassmann, M.: Soil Column Experiments to Study Leaching and Transformation Behaviour of 8:2 diPAP and 6:2 diPAP, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2700, 2021.

EGU21-1117 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Remediation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) contaminated soil and groundwater; evaluating the performance of activated carbon in column tests

Georgios Niarchos, Dan Berggren Kleja, Lutz Ahrens, and Fritjof Fagerlund

Remediation of sites contaminated with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) is key to reduce the contamination of drinking water sources and subsequent human exposure. PFAS production and use is increasingly being restricted worldwide with a reduction of point sources; however, legacy plumes are still posing a threat due to the persistence of these chemicals against degradation. One of the most widely studied soil remediation techniques for PFASs is stabilisation, which results in the long-term entrapment of the contaminants with the addition of fixation agents in the subsurface, aiming to prevent their leaching from soil to groundwater. In relation to this, the aim of this study was to identify the leaching behaviour of various PFASs in a treatment scenario using activated carbon. Silt loam soil sampled from central Sweden was used, as well as a mixture of the soil with activated carbon at 0.1% w/w. Spiked artificial groundwater was prepared with a mixture of 21 PFASs, at a total concentration of 1.4 μg mL-1. The sorption of PFASs to the solid phase was investigated using 15 cm-long column experiments under saturated conditions. Uniform packing of the material was validated through non-reactive tracer tests. The desorption behaviour after treatment was also investigated, by switching the inflow from contaminated to clean water after steady state was achieved. Analysis of the compounds was conducted using ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS). Results have shown significantly increased sorption in soil amended with activated carbons compared to the untreated soil. Additionally, there was a positive correlation between the length of the perfluorocarbon chain and sorption efficiency. The study is a step towards increasing our understanding on the efficiency and longevity of stabilisation with activated carbons as a remediation strategy for PFAS-contaminated soils and groundwater.

How to cite: Niarchos, G., Berggren Kleja, D., Ahrens, L., and Fagerlund, F.: Remediation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) contaminated soil and groundwater; evaluating the performance of activated carbon in column tests, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1117, 2021.

EGU21-6542 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Numerical Modelling of PFAS Transport and Groundwater Flow in the Vreta-Bålsta Esker

Kevin Pettersson, Mona Mossadeghi Björklund, and Alexandru Tatomir

Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances represent a new group of anthropogenic environmental pollutants.
For instance, one of the most commonly used firefighting methods today especially within airports is the use of aqueous film forming foams (AFFFs). AFFFs contain PFAS, which give the foam the ability to easily spread over a large area. Some PFAS species have demonstrated adverse health effects already at low concentrations such as liver damage and reproductive harm. The strong chemical bonding between carbon and fluorine also results in PFAS to being resistant to thermal- and chemical degradation. Thus, they degrade very slowly in nature. In Sweden, the limit for PFAS in drinking water is 90 ng L-1. This means that water needs to be treated for PFAS in the water treatment plants in cases of contamination. where water with a concentration over the limit would be used.

Bålsta is a growing city, with is proximity to Sweden’s largest city and capital Stockholm and Sweden’s fourth largest city Uppsala. Both located about 50 kilometres away, makes Bålsta an attractive city for people to live in and commute to their job in in the larger cities. With this growth new drinking water sources are required in the future Vreta-Bålsta area is an esker with good aquifer properties. However, it is an industrial area, and in the area lies a landfill which has been used as a training ground for firefighting exercises. During these exercises AFFFs have been used and the area is polluted with an unknown amount of PFAS. As the area is planned to be used for artificial infiltration and extraction of groundwater, it needs to be tested for potential PFAS contamination. 

This study aims to investigate by means of numerical modelling different scenarios of PFAS transport from the contaminated. Using data about the topography, soil depth of the area together, hydraulic conductivity, porosity, precipitation and runoff a model of the area was constructed within GMS. The package MODFLOW was used to simulate the groundwater flow. Using the groundwater flow solution, with the PFAS transport is simulated with the package MT3DMS to produce a result of a possible spread of PFAS within the studied area to see which parts that could be contaminated or become contaminated in the future.

The results given from the model was that PFAS from the landfill would transport northeast bound. With the southern part of the area would stay clear from all contamination from the landfill.

How to cite: Pettersson, K., Mossadeghi Björklund, M., and Tatomir, A.: Numerical Modelling of PFAS Transport and Groundwater Flow in the Vreta-Bålsta Esker, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6542, 2021.

EGU21-8592 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

PFAS immobilization using in-situ application of colloidal activated carbon at a geologically complex site

Fritjof Fagerlund, Georgios Niarchos, Lutz Ahrens, Dan Berggren Kleja, Jonny Bergman, Anna Larsson, Gareth Leonard, Jim Forde, Erik Ribeli, Henning Persson, and Lijana Gottby

Due to the exceptional persistence and resistance to degradation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), novel technologies for in-situ treatment and remediation of these pollutants are urgently needed. While there is still a need for more evidence from well-documented field applications, a promising technique is the use of activated carbon (AC) sorbents that can immobilize PFASs in groundwater and thereby prevent further spreading of the contaminants.

In Arboga Sweden a small fire-fighting training area connected to aviation industry is contaminated by PFAS from aqueous film forming foams (AFFFs). This site has been characterized for PFAS contamination and hydrogeological parameters affecting the spreading of contaminants with the groundwater in a few smaller site investigations since 2016 and continuous monitoring since 2018. In November 2019 colloidal activated carbon (CAC) was injected in a pilot-scale test to study the capability of CAC to immobilize PFASs in a part of the contamination plume.

The complex geology of the site made the injection of CAC challenging and special measures had to be taken to avoid excessive preferential flow of the CAC particles even at low-pressure injection. The injection pattern was modified and CaCl2 was injected downstream of the CAC injection to reduce CAC mobility and create a defined zone of CAC intercepting the PFAS plume in the groundwater, thus acting like a PFAS-immobilizing permeable barrier.

PFAS concentrations were initially reduced by 74% (for a sum of 11 PFASs) directly downstream of the CAC-barrier. However, a few months later PFAS concentrations rebounded to levels equally high or higher than before CAC injection, after which the levels have been going down again. The reasons to the rebound are likely connected to seasonal changes and fluctuations in the groundwater flow directions, causing bypass of the permeable CAC barrier. Lessons learned from applying CAC injections at this field site include the key importance of understanding the groundwater flow patterns and its temporal variability. CAC was able to produce significant reduction in PFAS concentrations (74%), but only when the PFAS plume was properly intercepted. The results illustrate the challenges with application of permeable barrier techniques particularly at geologically complex field sites. At such sites, sorbents for immobilization of PFAS plumes in groundwater should be applied in the most straightforward location where a year-round interception of the plume can be obtained.

How to cite: Fagerlund, F., Niarchos, G., Ahrens, L., Berggren Kleja, D., Bergman, J., Larsson, A., Leonard, G., Forde, J., Ribeli, E., Persson, H., and Gottby, L.: PFAS immobilization using in-situ application of colloidal activated carbon at a geologically complex site, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8592, 2021.

EGU21-15955 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Aquatic organism behaviours at multiple trophic levels for water monitoring: the case of Gran Sasso - Sirente aquifer

Federica Di Giacinto, Miriam Berti, Luigi Carbone, Riccardo Caprioli, Valentina Colaiuda, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Paolo Tuccella, Gianpaolo De Iuliis, Adelina Pietroleonardo, Giuseppina Mascilongo, Ludovica Di Renzo, Nicola D’Alterio, and Nicola Ferri

Emerging contaminants could exert combined toxic effects, including synergetic and antagonistic ones, that cannot be identified by chemical analysis tools. The biological early warning systems (BEWS) perform a real-time and continuous (24 h) monitoring of physiological and/or behavioural parameters of organism alterations, potentially correlated to water pollution. They are based on the response of living sentinels (i.e. molluscs, algae, crustaceans, fish) to a contaminant or mixture of them. Early warnings can be sent by SMS, e-mail, etc. to operators, in order to activate response actions. Belonging to different trophic levels, the crustacean D. magna, the alga C. vulgaris and the mollusc P. casertanum have been used to control Gran Sasso-Sirente aquifer in three different locations. Drinkable water of Teramo province and irrigation water of L’Aquila have been continuously monitored by the commercial tools “bbe® Daphnia Toximeter (DTOX)” and “bbe® Algae Toximeter (ATOX)”, respectively. In Tirino river spring, a novel sensor “SmartShell” has registered for the first time the valve movements of the autochthonous bivalve. After the first testing period, DTOX and ATOX did not register any typology of alarms in the potable and irrigation water. The valve movements of P. casertanum have been examined through spectral analysis in order to evaluate the behavioural rhythms useful for further investigation on their alterations as early warnings. The objective has been to reinforce the aquifer protection by installing instruments internationally recognised as efficient tools and exploring new proposals for guaranteeing human and ecosystem health.

How to cite: Di Giacinto, F., Berti, M., Carbone, L., Caprioli, R., Colaiuda, V., Lombardi, A., Tomassetti, B., Tuccella, P., De Iuliis, G., Pietroleonardo, A., Mascilongo, G., Di Renzo, L., D’Alterio, N., and Ferri, N.: Aquatic organism behaviours at multiple trophic levels for water monitoring: the case of Gran Sasso - Sirente aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15955, 2021.

EGU21-12343 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.4

Ivermectin transfer through percolation and surface runoff from intact soil mesocosms under rainfall simulation

Nico Hachgenei, Lorenzo Spadini, Guillaume Nord, Marie-Christine Morel, Anne Lespine, Henri Mora, François Courvoisier, Jean-François Sutra, and Céline Duwig

Ivermectin (IVM) is one of the few pharmaceutics that are still used in a preventive, systematic manner in extensive cattle breeding in our study region in the Ardèche region (France), amongst others. It is an efficient antiparasitic agent with an extreme acute toxicity for most invertebrates, especially aquatic organisms like daphnia (ng/l), and is also highly toxic to different fish species (µg/l). Due to its strong sorption to soil and sediment and quick photodegradation, early environmental risk assessments (ERA) conclude a low risk for aquatic organisms. More recent studies conclude an inacceptable risk for daphnia and dung organisms. One of the critical parameters between these contradictory conclusions is IVM export from cow dung and transfer towards the streams.

The study region is characterized by a Mediterranean climate with a dry summer and intense convective storm events leading to regular flash flood events that coincide with the cattle treatment seasons in spring and autumn. The study region encompasses the Claduègne catchment which is part of the OHMCV observatory and the OZCAR and eLTER research infrastructures.

The key question concerning the risk for aquatic organisms is to what extent and in which conditions IVM is mobilized and transferred from cow dung to soil and river via surface runoff and percolation in this environment prone to rapid flow processes. We approach this question on the scale of 60*30*22 (L*W*D) cm3 intact soil mesocosms, for which we developed an adapted field sampling and laboratory experimentation case. Soil mescosms are collected in the Claduègne catchment. IVM is applied in form of spiked cow dung at realistic environmental concentrations before simulating several rainfall events, representative of this Mediterranean region. Runoff and drainage water are sampled for major anions (including Br- tracer), non-particulate organic carbon and IVM concentrations on a high temporal frequency in order to gain an insight on the intra- and inter-event dynamics of water and IVM transfer. Tested parameters include dung ageing, soils types, initial soil humidity and consecutive rainfall events.

The first results highlight the importance of runoff for the overall export of IVM on the event scale. Concerning the water flux, initial humidity is found to determine the runoff / drainage partitioning as well as the rapidity of percolation through the occurrence of preferential flow. In this context, hydrophobicity seems to play an important role.

How to cite: Hachgenei, N., Spadini, L., Nord, G., Morel, M.-C., Lespine, A., Mora, H., Courvoisier, F., Sutra, J.-F., and Duwig, C.: Ivermectin transfer through percolation and surface runoff from intact soil mesocosms under rainfall simulation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12343, 2021.

HS8.1.5 – Reactive transport, mineral dissolution and precipitation in fractured and porous rock: experiments, models and field observations

EGU21-883 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Strength and permeability evolution of andesite during benchtop acid dissolution experiments: implications for volcanic systems

Jamie Farquharson, Bastien Wild, Alexandra Kushnir, Michael Heap, Patrick Baud, and Ben Kennedy

Acidic crater lakes are common features of subaerial volcanic systems; indeed, research suggests the existence of over 700 volcanic lakes around the world. Their persistence requires a regular input of water (e.g., meteoric water) at a rate that exceeds the migration of fluid from the system—for example, due to evaporation or fluid flow through the porous edifice.  Flank aquifers and fumarole fields may similarly be strongly acidic environments.

In order to explore the evolution of the physical and mechanical properties of an andesite under these field-relevant chemical conditions, we performed batch reaction experiments over timescales from 1 day to 4 months. The experiments involved immersion of a suite of samples in a solution of sulfuric acid (0.125 M; pH ∼0.6). Periodically, samples were removed and their physical and mechanical properties measured. We observe a progressive loss of sample mass, along with a general increase in porosity. We attribute this to the dissolution of plagioclase,  accompanied by the generation of a microporous diktytaxitic groundmass due to glass dissolution.

Plagioclase phenocrysts are seen to undergo progressive pseudomorphic replacement by an amorphous phase enriched in silica and depleted in other, relatively more soluble, cations (Na, Ca, and Al). In the first phase of dissolution (i.e. between 1 and 10 days), this process appears to be confined to preexisting fractures within the plagioclase phenocrysts. Ultimately, however, these phenocrysts tend toward entire replacement by amorphous silica. We do not observe evidence of induced dissolution or alteration in the other mineral constituents of the material: pyroxene, cristobalite, and titanomagnetite, specifically.

Examining the required Klinkenberg corrections during permeability measurements, we quantitatively demonstrate that the relative aperture of flow pathways increases with progressive acid immersion, by as much as a factor of five. We propose that the dissolution process results in the widening of pore throats and the improvement of pore connectivity, with the effect of increasing permeability by over an order of magnitude relative to the initial measurements. Compressive strength of our samples was also decreased, insofar as porosity tends to increase.

We highlight broader implications of the observed permeability increase and strength reduction for volcanic systems including induced flank failure and related hazards, improved efficiency of volatile migration, and attendant eruption implications.

How to cite: Farquharson, J., Wild, B., Kushnir, A., Heap, M., Baud, P., and Kennedy, B.: Strength and permeability evolution of andesite during benchtop acid dissolution experiments: implications for volcanic systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-883, 2021.

EGU21-1196 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Inhomogeneous rock compositions and varying dissolution rates affect evolution and shape of leaching zones in potash seams

Svenja Steding, Thomas Kempka, Axel Zirkler, and Michael Kühn

Salt deposits host an important industrial raw material and provide storage capacities for energy and nuclear waste. However, leaching zones can seriously endanger the development and utilisation of salt deposits for these purposes, especially if these occur in potash seams. Their increased solubility enables even NaCl-saturated solutions, if present, to deeply penetrate these seams. The resulting salt dissolution processes generate fluid flow paths and affect the mechanical rock integrity. To model the timely evolution of leaching zones and to assess their hazard potential, a reactive transport model has been developed, taking into account not only the complex dissolution and precipitation behaviour of potash salts, but also the resulting porosity and permeability changes as well as density-driven chemical species transport. Additionally, the model makes use of an approach to describe transport and chemical reactions at the interface between impermeable (dry) salt rocks and permeated leaching zones (Steding et al., 2021). In the present study, we focus on the effect of heterogeneity of the mineral distribution within potash seams and on the influence of mineral- and saturation-dependent dissolution rates.

The applied reactive transport model is based on a coupling of the geochemical module PHREEQC (Parkhurst & Appelo, 2013) with the TRANSport Simulation Environment (Kempka, 2020) as well as the newly developed extension of an interchange approach (Steding et al., 2021). A numerical model has been developed and applied to simulate the leaching process of a carnallite-bearing potash seam due to natural density-driven convection. The results show that both, the mineral composition and dissolution rate of the original salt rock, strongly influence the shape and evolution of the leaching zone (Steding et al., 2021).

In nature, strong variations of the mineralogy occur within potash seams with random or stratified distributions. Furthermore, dissolution rates depend on the mineral itself as well as on its saturation state. Both may considerably influence the growth rate of a leaching zone. Therefore, the reactive transport model has been extended by mineral- and saturation-dependent dissolution rates. A scenario analysis has been undertaken to compare the impact of homogeneous and heterogeneous rock compositions. For that purpose, the carnallite content in the potash seam was varied from 5 to 25 wt. % including different stratifications and random distributions. The simulations were classified by means of the Péclet and Damköhler numbers, and the long-term behaviour as well as hazard potential are discussed.

 

References:

Parkhurst, D.L.; Appelo, C.A.J. (2013). Description of Input and Examples for PHREEQC Version 3 - a Computer Program for Speciation, Batch-reaction, One-dimensional Transport, and Inverse Geochemical Calculations. In Techniques and Methods; Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey; Book 6, 497 pp

Kempka, T. (2020). Verification of a Python-based TRANsport Simulation Environment for density-driven fluid flow and coupled transport of heat and chemical species. Adv. Geosci. 54, 67–77.

Steding, S.; Kempka, T.; Zirkler, A.; Kühn, M. (2021). Spatial and temporal evolution of leaching zones within potash seams reproduced by reactive transport simulations. Water 13, 168.

How to cite: Steding, S., Kempka, T., Zirkler, A., and Kühn, M.: Inhomogeneous rock compositions and varying dissolution rates affect evolution and shape of leaching zones in potash seams, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1196, 2021.

EGU21-1312 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Quantification of methane hydrate formation in the Large-scale Reservoir Laboratory Simulator (LARS) by numerical simulations

Zhen Li, Thomas Kempka, Erik Spangenberg, and Judith Schicks

Natural gas hydrates are considered as one of the most promising alternatives to conventional fossil energy sources, and are thus subject to world-wide research activities for decades. Hydrate formation from methane dissolved in brine is a geogenic process, resulting in the accumulation of gas hydrates in sedimentary formations below the seabed or overlain by permafrost. The LArge scale Reservoir Simulator (LARS) has been developed (Schicks et al., 2011, 2013; Spangenberg et al., 2015) to investigate the formation and dissociation of gas hydrates under simulated in-situ conditions of hydrate deposits. Experimental measurements of the temperatures and bulk saturation of methane hydrates by electrical resistivity tomography have been used to determine the key parameters, describing and characterising methane hydrate formation dynamics in LARS. In the present study, a framework of equations of state to simulate equilibrium methane hydrate formation in LARS has been developed and coupled with the TRANsport Simulation Environment (Kempka, 2020) to study the dynamics of methane hydrate formation and quantify changes in the porous medium properties in LARS. We present our model implementation, its validation against TOUGH-HYDRATE (Gamwo & Liu, 2010) and the findings of the model comparison against the hydrate formation experiments undertaken by Priegnitz et al. (2015). The latter demonstrates that our numerical model implementation is capable of reproducing the main processes of hydrate formation in LARS, and thus may be applied for experiment design as well as to investigate the process of hydrate formation at specific geological settings.

Key words: dissolved methane; hydrate formation; hydration; python; permeability.

References

Schicks, J. M., Spangenberg, E., Giese, R., Steinhauer, B., Klump, J., & Luzi, M. (2011). New approaches for the production of hydrocarbons from hydrate bearing sediments. Energies, 4(1), 151-172, https://doi.org/10.3390/en4010151

Schicks, J. M., Spangenberg, E., Giese, R., Luzi-Helbing, M., Priegnitz, M., & Beeskow-Strauch, B. (2013). A counter-current heat-exchange reactor for the thermal stimulation of hydrate-bearing sediments. Energies, 6(6), 3002-3016, https://doi.org/10.3390/en6063002

Spangenberg, E., Priegnitz, M., Heeschen, K., & Schicks, J. M. (2015). Are laboratory-formed hydrate-bearing systems analogous to those in nature?. Journal of Chemical & Engineering Data, 60(2), 258-268, https://doi.org/10.1021/je5005609

Kempka, T. (2020) Verification of a Python-based TRANsport Simulation Environment for density-driven fluid flow and coupled transport of heat and chemical species. Adv. Geosci., 54, 67–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-67-2020

Gamwo, I. K., & Liu, Y. (2010). Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of methane production in a hydrate reservoir. Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 49(11), 5231-5245, https://doi.org/10.1021/ie901452v

Priegnitz, M., Thaler, J., Spangenberg, E., Schicks, J. M., Schrötter, J., & Abendroth, S. (2015). Characterizing electrical properties and permeability changes of hydrate bearing sediments using ERT data. Geophysical Journal International, 202(3), 1599-1612, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv245

How to cite: Li, Z., Kempka, T., Spangenberg, E., and Schicks, J.: Quantification of methane hydrate formation in the Large-scale Reservoir Laboratory Simulator (LARS) by numerical simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1312, 2021.

EGU21-1512 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Digital reconstruction of reservoir sandstones to predict hydraulic and mechanical rock properties

Maria Wetzel, Thomas Kempka, and Michael Kühn

Quantifying trends in hydraulic and mechanical properties of reservoir sandstones has a wide practical importance for many applications related to geological subsurface utilization. In that regard, predicting macroscopic rock properties requires detailed information on their microstructure [1]. In order to fundamentally understand the pore-scale processes governing the rock behaviour, digital rock physics represents a powerful and flexible approach to investigate essential rock property relations [2]. This was shown, e.g., for hydraulic effects of anhydrite cement in the Bentheim sandstone in relation to an unsuccessful drilling campaign at the geothermal well Allermöhe, Germany [3]. Rock weakening due to decreasing calcite mineral content was also demonstrated by application of numerical simulations [4]. 

In the present study, a process-based method is used for reconstructing the full 3D microstructure of three typical reservoir reference rocks: the Fontainebleau, Berea and Bentheim sandstones. For that purpose, grains are initially deposited under the influence of gravity and afterwards diagenetically consolidated. The resulting evolution in porosity, permeability and rock stiffness is examined and compared to the respective micro-CT scans of the sandstones. The presented approach enables to efficiently generate synthetic sandstone samples over a broad range of porosities, comprising the microstructural complexity of natural rocks and considering any desired size, sorting and shape of grains. In view of a virtual laboratory, these synthetic samples can be further altered to examine the impact of mineral dissolution and/or precipitation as well as fracturing on various petrophysical correlations, what is of particular relevance for a sustainable exploration and utilisation of the geological subsurface.

[1] Wetzel M., Kempka T., Kühn M. (2017): Predicting macroscopic elastic rock properties requires detailed information on microstructure. Energy Procedia, 125, 561-570. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.195 
[2] Wetzel M., Kempka T., Kühn M. (2020): Hydraulic and mechanical impacts of pore space alterations within a sandstone quantified by a flow velocity-dependent precipitation approach. Materials, 13, 4, 3100. DOI: 10.3390/ma13143100
[3] Wetzel M., Kempka T., Kühn M. (2020): Digital rock physics approach to simulate hydraulic effects of anhydrite cement in Bentheim sandstone. Advances in Geosciences, 54, 33-39. DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-54-33-2020 
[4] Wetzel M., Kempka T., Kühn M. (2018): Quantifying rock weakening due to decreasing calcite mineral content by numerical simulations. Materials, 11, 542. DOI: 10.3390/ma11040542 

How to cite: Wetzel, M., Kempka, T., and Kühn, M.: Digital reconstruction of reservoir sandstones to predict hydraulic and mechanical rock properties, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1512, 2021.

EGU21-2636 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Geochemical and reactive transport modelling in R with the RedModRphree package

Marco De Lucia and Michael Kühn

The modern advances in computing and experimental capabilities in the research of water-rock-interactions require geoscientists to routinely combine laboratory data and models to produce knowledge in order to solve pressing societal challenges connected to subsurface utilization. Data science is hence a more and more pervasive instrument also for  geochemists, which in turn demands flexible and easy to learn software adaptable to their specific needs. 
In this contribution we showcase geochemical and reactive transport modelling with our RedModRphree [1] extension package for the GNU R environment and programming language. The new version of the package leverages the R interface to the established PHREEQC geochemical simulator maintained by its original authors [2]. R has established itself as de facto standard language for statistics and machine learning. It enjoys increasing diffusion in many applied scientific fields such as bioinformatics, chemometrics and ecological modelling. The availability of excellent third party extensions such as the thermodynamic package CHNOSZ [3], which extends the functionalities of SUPCRT92, as well as its advanced graphical and numerical capabilities, make R an attractive platform for comprehensive geochemical data analysis, experiment evaluation and modelling. 
The aim of RedModRphree is to provide the user with an easy-to-use, high-level interface to program algorithms involving geochemical models, which are then solved using the PHREEQC engine: parameter calibration, error and sensitivity analysis, visualization, up to CPU-intensive parallel coupled reactive transport models. Among the out-of-the-box features included in RedModRphree, we highlight the computation and visualization of Pourbaix (Eh-pH) diagrams and the implementation of 1D advective reactive transport supporting the use of surrogate models replacing expensive PHREEQC calculations [4]. RedModRphree is open source and can be installed from https://git.gfz-potsdam.de/delucia/RedModRphree.

[1] De Lucia, M. and Kühn, M.: Coupling R and PHREEQC: Efficient Programming of Geochemical Models, Energy Procedia, 40, 464–471, doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.053, 2013.

[2] Charlton, S.R. and Parkhurst, D.L.: Modules based on the geochemical model PHREEQC for use in scripting and programming languages, Computers & Geosciences 37, 10, 1653–1663, doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2011.02.005, 2011.

[3] Dick, J.M.: CHNOSZ: Thermodynamic Calculations and Diagrams for Geochemistry, Frontiers in Earth Science, 7, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00180, 2019.

[4] Jatnieks, J., De Lucia, M., Dransch, D., and Sips, M.: Data-driven Surrogate Model Approach for Improving the Performance of Reactive Transport Simulations, Energy Procedia, 97, 447–453, doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.047, 2016.

 

How to cite: De Lucia, M. and Kühn, M.: Geochemical and reactive transport modelling in R with the RedModRphree package, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2636, 2021.

EGU21-6069 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5 | Highlight

Wormhole dynamics, competition for the flow and changes in transport behavior: an intermediate-scale experiment

Michela Trabucchi, Daniel Fernàndez-Garcia, and Jesús Carrera

Salt flats (Salares) are complex evaporitic systems of economic interest and environmental value. On the one hand, these aquifers are usually exploited for variety of minerals, including dissolved species (e.g. Lithium and Potassium) extracted from the brines. On the other hand, the genesys of salares favors that they are surrounded by uncommon ecosystems, which must be protected. In this context, it is fear that brine pumping might favor the development of dissolution channels (Wormholes) that could connect the Salar nucleus with the environmental sensitive surroundings. Thus, a full understanding of the conditions and processes involved in wormhole formation and evolution has to be achieved. The hydraulic and geochemical conditions for conduits growth have been widely discussed in carbonate environments, while little has been done in halitic and gypsum environments. But we unknowledge experimental works aimed at understanding wormhole dynamics and the mechanism of competition for the flow that influence dissolution pattern evolution.

In this study, we want to improve the understanding of multiple wormholes growth in the context of wormhole competition and consequent changes in transport behaviors. For that purpose, we designed and performed a laboratory intermediate-scale tank experiment under controlled conditions. Halite in the form of granular medium is used to reproduce the aquifer. Hydrodynamics and geochemical conditions are set as to reproduce a dominant wormhole dissolution regime. Several coloured tracer tests are carried out to characterize the medium before, during and after the dissolution experiment.  Tracer concentration, hydrogeochemical and flow parameters, as well as tank images are continuously recorded. In particular, the use of fluorescent tracer jointly with image processing analysis highlights wormholes growth, shape and propagation through the medium at different times. Experimental results allow visualizing and analyzing several features related to wormhole competition, e.g. wormhole growth rate and density evolution, as well the redistribution of the flow towards areas where dominant wormholes are developing. Results are compared to available numerical and analytical solutions. Lastly, the interpretation of BTCs allows to understand changes in flow and trasport behavior and related processes, given the developing dissolution pattern.

How to cite: Trabucchi, M., Fernàndez-Garcia, D., and Carrera, J.: Wormhole dynamics, competition for the flow and changes in transport behavior: an intermediate-scale experiment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6069, 2021.

EGU21-7800 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5 | Highlight

Hydrogeochemical modelling of origin, evolution and mechanisms controlling water resources quality in the Pra Basin (Ghana)

Evans Manu, Michael Kühn, Thomas Kempka, Tatiana Goldberg, Andrea Vieth-Hillebrand, and Oliver Rach

Understanding the geochemistry of water resources is a prerequisite in the development of sustainable water resource management strategies. The Pra Basin is one of the few basins in Ghana with economic importance. The Basin is constituted by three river systems (Birim, Offin and Pra) and covers a total land size of approximately 2,300 km2. It traverses several towns and serves as the main water supply for communities and industry. Currently, the quality of water resources in the Pra Basin especially surfacewaters have been affected negatively as a result of activities such as illegal mining (e.g., the use of mercury for the extraction of gold), indiscriminate waste disposal, and poor farm management practices (e.g., inappropriate application of fertilizers and pesticides). Specific contaminants include mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), cadmium (Cd), selenium (Se), and nitrate (NO3). The Pra Basin is underlain by three rock formations, the Birimian Supergroup, the Tarkwain Formation and the granitoids. The mineral composition of the Birimian Supergroup comprises argillitic/pellitic sediment (plus or minus kerogen), sericite schist, and quartz-sericite schist. The granitoids comprise biotite (hornblende, muscovite), biotite gneiss, biotite schist, amphibolite partly of contact metamorphism, K-feldspar rich granitoid, two-mica or muscovite granite and monzonite, serecite schist, quartz-serecite, and garnet. The Tarkwaian rocks mineralogy also includes basaltic flow/subvolcanic rock and minor interbedded volcaniclastics, detrital sediment mainly sandstone and conglomerate ultramafic and minor mafic igneous rock. Samples of groundwater were collected from shallow (mainly hand-dug wells of depths < 10 m) and deep (mainly boreholes of depths >30 m) aquifers across the Pra Basin. Surfacewaters were collected from rivers and stream networks.  The samples were analysed for major ions, trace metals and stable isotopes (oxygen-18 and deuterium) using Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES), Ion Chromatography (IC), and Picarro L-2140i Ringdown Spectrometer at the GFZ laboratories. Multivariate statistical analysis and inverse geochemical modelling have been applied to around 100 water samples sourced from boreholes, hand-dug wells, and rivers of the Pra Basin to determine the chemical state of the waters. Specifically, the study seeks to (1) determine the origin and evolution of the geochemistry of both surfacewater and groundwater, (2) identify recharge and discharge areas, and (3) study sources and sinks of minerals including sulphates, carbonates, and silicates. The abundance of cations and anions are in the order of Na>Ca>K>Mg and HCO3>Cl>SO4>NO3 (surfacewater), Na>Ca>Mg>K and HCO3>Cl>NO3>SO4 (hand-dug well), and Na>Ca>Mg>K, and HCO3>Cl>NO3>SO4 (boreholes). Our research findings demonstrate that geochemistry of water resources in the Pra Basin is mainly controlled by rock-water interaction. With the application of hydrogeochemical modelling, including silicate mineral weathering and ion exchange, significant processes controlling the basin’s hydrochemistry variations are quantified. The presented results will support the development of sustainable water resources management strategies and contribute to mitigating future contamination.

How to cite: Manu, E., Kühn, M., Kempka, T., Goldberg, T., Vieth-Hillebrand, A., and Rach, O.: Hydrogeochemical modelling of origin, evolution and mechanisms controlling water resources quality in the Pra Basin (Ghana), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7800, 2021.

EGU21-8026 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Effect of precipitation mineralization reactions on convective dissolution of CO2 : an experimental study

Anne De Wit, Carelle Thomas, and Sam Dehaeck

To analyze the influence of a precipitation mineralization reaction between dissolved CO2 and calcium ions on the convective transfer of CO2 towards an aqueous phase, the convective dissolution of CO2 into aqueous solutions of calcium hydroxyde (Ca(OH)2) and calcium chloride (CaCl2) of various concentrations is studied experimentally. We show that different precipitation patterns develop in the aqueous solution depending on the nature and concentration of the reactant in the host phase. In the case of Ca(OH)2, precipitation coupled to convection leads to vigorous convective mixing in the host phase and sedimentation of solid particles of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) down to the bulk of the reservoir. Conversely, dissolution of CO2 in buffered CaCl2 solutions leads to a stabilisation of the buoyancy-driven convection due to a decrease in density and the adherence of the precipitate to the cell walls.

How to cite: De Wit, A., Thomas, C., and Dehaeck, S.: Effect of precipitation mineralization reactions on convective dissolution of CO2 : an experimental study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8026, 2021.

EGU21-9541 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Detecting Deep Rock Weathering

Laura Krone and Friedhelm von Blanckenburg

The weathering front, the interface beneath Earth’s surface where unweathered bedrock is converted into weathered rock, is a zone where chemical disequilibrium results in some of the most intense mineralogical transformations. These are focused into a narrow zone; yet its depth is poorly known due to its inaccessible nature deep beneath the Earth’s surface. Studies in humid and temperate climate suggest a maximum depth of 20 m for the weathering front in granitoid rock (Hayes et al., 2020).

To explore whether this depth is unique to humid climate we drilled into fractured rock in the semi-arid climate zone of the Coastal Cordillera of Chile. We found deep weathering down to 76 m below the surface which represents one of the deepest weathering fronts ever found. To characterise and quantify rock weathering, we investigated mineralogical and geochemical transformations. Iron (Fe) oxidation and related porosity formation is the first weathering process taking place and hence an indicator for the onset of weathering (Buss et al., 2008). Elemental (τ) and bulk loss (chemical depletion fraction, CDF) calculated from the chemical composition reveal multiple zones with more intense weathering compared to bedrock, and where the specific surface area also increases due to formation of secondary solids. Fracturing and the related increase in macro-porosity thus induce these mineralogical and chemical transformations. Below 76 m, bedrock is devoid of weathering features. We suggest that tectonic pre-fracturing in this geologically active region provided transport pathways for oxygen to greater depths, inducing porosity by oxidation. This porosity was preserved throughout the weathering process, as secondary minerals that might fill pores were not formed due to the low fluid flow.

Hayes, N. R., Buss, H. L., Moore, O. W., Krám, P. and Pancost, R. D. (2020): Controls on granitic weathering fronts in contrasting climates. Chemical Geology, 535, 119450.

Buss, H.L., Sak, P. B., Webb, S. M. and Brantley, S. L. (2008): Weathering of the Rio Blanco quartz diorite, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico: Coupling oxidation, dissolution, and fracturing. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 72 (18), 4488-4507.

How to cite: Krone, L. and von Blanckenburg, F.: Detecting Deep Rock Weathering, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9541, 2021.

EGU21-9832 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Reactive transport model of kinetically controlled celestite to barite replacement

Morgan Tranter, Maria Wetzel, Marco De Lucia, and Michael Kühn

Barite formation is of concern for many sustainable utilisations of the geological subsurface, ranging from oil and gas extraction to geothermal reservoirs, and also acts as a scavenger mineral for the retention of radium for nuclear waste disposal. The surface reaction-controlled nature of its formation in these dynamic systems entails a strong sensitivity of the host rock's permeability towards heterogeneities and boundary conditions. The impact of precipitation on effective flow properties can vary by many orders of magnitude as shown by barite scale formation and injectivity loss models for geothermal systems [1], emphasising the need for robust prediction models.

A relevant example case is the replacement of celestite (SrSO4) with barite (BaSO4), which was investigated for various barite supersaturations with flow-through experiments on the core-scale [2]. Three distinct cases were observed for supersaturations from high to low: (1) quick overgrowth and passivation of soluble celestite grains, (2) partial replacement of celestite with barite, (3) slow moving reaction front with complete mineral replacement. The authors presented heuristic approaches that include linking reactive surface area development to molar fractions to model the results. We provide a comprehensive, full-physics geochemical modelling approach using precipitation and dissolution kinetics as well as nucleation and crystal growth [3] for a more flexible representation of the problem. Additionally, the generation of a digital rock representation based on CT-scans of the granular sample is utilised to derive its inner surface area [4]. The experiments were modelled using core-scale reactive transport simulations. The three observed cases at varying supersaturations were reproduced with regard to evolution of sample rock composition and porosity.

In a next step, the characteristic values taken from the calibrated reactive transport models can be further integrated into the existing digital rock physics model [4], thus enabling the development of up-scaled relationships such as reactive surface area as a function of mineral fractions and porosity. The resulting models can then be applied to reservoir-scale simulations for various applications related to subsurface utilisation. 

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[1] Tranter, M., De Lucia, M., Wolfgramm, M., Kühn, M., 2020. Barite Scale Formation and Injectivity Loss Models for Geothermal Systems. Water 12, 3078. https://doi.org/10/ghntzk
[2] Poonoosamy, J., Klinkenberg, M., Deissmann, G., Brandt, F., Bosbach, D., Mäder, U., Kosakowski, G., 2020. Effects of solution supersaturation on barite precipitation in porous media and consequences on permeability: Experiments and modelling. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 270, 43–60. https://doi.org/10/ghntxn
[3] Tranter, M., De Lucia, M., Kühn, M., 2021. Numerical investigation of barite scaling kinetics in fractures. Geothermics 91, 102027. https://doi.org/10/ghr89n
[4] Wetzel, M., Kempka, T., Kühn, M., 2020. Hydraulic and Mechanical Impacts of Pore Space Alterations within a Sandstone Quantified by a Flow Velocity-Dependent Precipitation Approach. Materials 13, 3100. https://doi.org/10/ghsp42

How to cite: Tranter, M., Wetzel, M., De Lucia, M., and Kühn, M.: Reactive transport model of kinetically controlled celestite to barite replacement, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9832, 2021.

EGU21-10138 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Formation of high-transmisivity zones in the facies transition in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin (Czech Republic) 

Jiri Stary, Jana Schweigstillova, and Jiri Bruthans

The Bohemian Cretaceous Basin (BCB) is the most important hydrogeological structure in the Czech Republic, with large sources of groundwater. The origin of high-transmissivity zones is poorly understood in many BCB areas. The doyen of Czech hydrogeology prof. Hynie described some of the largest springs to be of karst origin and he attributed the most permeable areas to facies transition between shallow-water sandstones and deep-water marlstones. In many BCB areas with large springs we can find thin sandstones and siltstones layers with high carbonate content even in stratigraphical levels corresponding with aquifers.

Research is focused on Vysoké Mýto and Ustí synclines in BCB, 125 km east of Prague in the Czech Republic. Overall 167 rock samples were taken from borehole cores and rock outcrops in this area, the most from Jizera and Bílá Hora formations. Cores were taken from intervals where: (i) high carbonate content was expected, (ii) conduits and enlarged fractures were observed at outcrops and in wells, (iii) inflows to boreholes were determined by well logging. Calcium carbonate content was determined by calcimetry in cores. Cores were leached in 10 % hydrochloric acid to observe the degree of subsequent disintegration. Polished sections were prepared from selected cores and Ca, Si, Na, K, Al content was automatically mapped by SEM-EDS to visualize the calcium, silica, feldspar and clay mineral distribution in cores.

Leaching in hydrochloric acid is an accelerated simulation of natural processes of dissolution by acidic solutions (Kůrková et al. 2019). In many aquifers in BCB there are thin calcite-rich layers with quartz sand which disintegrates after leaching calcite. Leaching of the samples in acid results in the decrease of sample strength, sometimes to their disintegration. Leaching experiments showed that the carbonate content is not the only controlling factor in the karstification process.

In sediments with detrital quartz admixture in central or western parts of the BCB the total disintegration mostly occurs between 35-50% CaCO3 content depending on insoluble material content (Kůrková et al. 2020). In contrast, in the eastern part of the BCB, a degree of disintegration above 10% is documented in only 7% of the studied samples. In sediments with diagenetically precipitated cement from marine sponges even calcite content as high as 80% may not be sufficient for material to disintegrate after leaching. Disintegration occurs mainly along fractured zones where rock is heavily fractured.  

It seems that the increased content of microcrystalline silica cementy in sandy limestones and calcareous sandstones (spongolites) of the studied area has a fundamental influence on the higher cohesion and resistance of rocks to dissolution. Cause for increased cohesion is the specific spatial distribution of  microcrystalline silica, which bound the quartz grains together or formed a foam-like supporting structure in fine calcite-rich deposits.

 

The research was financially supported by the GA ČR 19-14082S.

 

References:

Kůrková I., Bruthans J., Balák F., Slavík M., Schweigstillová J., Bruthansová J., Mikuš P., Grundloch J. (2019): Factors controlling evolution of karst conduits in sandy limestone and calcareous sandstone (Turnov area, Czech Republic). Journal of Hydrology: 574: 1062-1073.

How to cite: Stary, J., Schweigstillova, J., and Bruthans, J.: Formation of high-transmisivity zones in the facies transition in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin (Czech Republic) , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10138, 2021.

EGU21-12661 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5 | Highlight

Reactive Transport Modelling applied to Ni laterite ore deposits in New Caledonia : Impact of discrete fractures on Ni mineralization

Sylvain Favier, Yoram Teitler, Fabrice Golfier, and Michel Cathelineau

Laterite nickel-ore formation in New Caledonia is classically assumed to be governed by supergene processes, and downward migration of waters with Ni-enrichment at the basis of the laterite profile. However, Ni-ore distribution's heterogeneity seems to have been favoured by secondary processes controlled by the combined effects of inherited tectonics, geomorphological evolution and hydrologic systems since the primary laterite formation. Fluid flow and mass transfer processes are not purely downward at low-temperature conditions, but can also be related to lateral fluid circulations, and local drainage along damaged zones in the vicinity of faults (Cathelineau et al., 2016a; 2016b; Myagkiy et al., 2019). This study aims to investigate through reactive transport modelling the impact of discrete fracture on the Ni distribution.


We simulate the dissolution of olivine profile where fractures are the main channels of the fluid-flow. Olivine dissolution is assumed to be kinetically controlled whereas the precipitation of secondary weathering products is considered to occur according to local equilibrium. Results from two different numerical approaches are presented and discussed. The first one is based on a 1D dual-porosity model of a vertically oriented column of serpentinized olivine using PhreeqC associated with the llnl.dat thermodynamic database. The second one is a 2D modelling of hydro-chemical processes in fractured porous media based on the coupling of PhreeqC and Comsol Multiphysics through ICP. While the 1D model aims to describe the general trend of the progression of the weathering front and the global mineral redistribution, the 2D model focuses on particular fracture geometry and hotspot moments of the dissolution process to highlight crucial transition and redistribution of the different mineral phases in relation with the spatial distribution of fractures.


In the 1D dual-porosity model, the fractures are modelled as advective cells connected to a diffusive cell containing the main part of olivine. Two different geochemical models are thus designed. The first one describes the fracture and the advective area's geochemical behaviour, while the second one focuses on the matrix in the diffusive area. The 2D model extends the work initiated by Myagkiy et al. (2019) on simple configurations. The fractures are modelled herein as 1D discrete surfaces interacting with a porous matrix of olivine. Different fracture configurations are studied to assess their impact on mineral redistribution.


Results from both modellings are then compared with observed field data from New Caledonia and previous modelling of an olivine profile without fractures (Myagkiy et al., 2017) to validate the models and highlight the differences induced by the fracture network.

How to cite: Favier, S., Teitler, Y., Golfier, F., and Cathelineau, M.: Reactive Transport Modelling applied to Ni laterite ore deposits in New Caledonia : Impact of discrete fractures on Ni mineralization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12661, 2021.

EGU21-13773 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Magnetite Redistribution during Multi-stage Serpentinization: Evidence from the Taishir massif, the Khantaishir Ophiolite, Western Mongolia

Otgonbayar Dandar, Atsushi Okamoto, Masaoki Uno, and Noriyoshi Tsuchiya

Magnetite commonly forms during serpentinization of mantle peridotite, involving the hydrogen generation within the oceanic lithosphere. Although magnetite is concentrated in veins, the mobility of iron during serpentinization is still poorly understood. The completely serpentinized ultramafic rocks (originally dunite) within the Taishir massif in the Khantaishir ophiolite, western Mongolia, include abundant magnetite + antigorite veins, which manifest novel distribution of magnetite. The serpentinite records the multi-stage serpentinization, in order of (1) Al-rich antigorite + lizardite mixture with hourglass texture (Al2O3 = 0.46-0.69 wt%; Atg+Lz), (2) Al-poor antigorite composed of thick veins and their branches (Atg), and (3) chrysotile that cut all previous textures. The Mg# (= Mg/ (Mg + Fetotal)) of Atg+Lz (0.94-0.96) is lower than Atg (0.99) and chrysotile (0.98). In the region of Atg+Lz, magnetite occurs as the arrays of fine grains (<50 μm) around the hourglass texture. In the Atg veins replacing Atg+Lz, magnetite disappears and re-precipitated as coarse grains (100-250 μm) in the center of some veins. As the extent of replacement of Atg+Lz by Atg veins increases, both modal abundance of magnetite and the bulk Fe content decrease. These characteristics indicate that hydrogen generation mainly occurred at the stage of Atg+Lz formation, and magnetite distribution was largely modified via dissolution and precipitation in response to later fluid infiltration associated with the Atg veins. This also indicates the high iron mobility within the serpentinized peridotites even after the primary stage of magnetite formation.

How to cite: Dandar, O., Okamoto, A., Uno, M., and Tsuchiya, N.: Magnetite Redistribution during Multi-stage Serpentinization: Evidence from the Taishir massif, the Khantaishir Ophiolite, Western Mongolia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13773, 2021.

EGU21-13915 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Simultaneous replacement of plagioclase by albite and K-feldspar: natural evidence and hydrothermal experiments

Astin Nurdiana, Atsushi Okamoto, Masaoki Uno, and Noriyoshi Tsuchiya

Replacement of feldspars occurs ubiquitously during fluid-rock interaction in crusts, and the formation of micro- to nano- pores along with the replacement potentially provides significant impacts on hydrological properties within the crust (e.g. Plümper et al., 2017; Yuguchi et al., 2019). In this contribution, we report the novel texture of the plagioclase replacement by K-feldspar and albite and showed the conditions of such replacement. The mafic schists near the pegmatitic quartz diorite within the Kinkasan Island, NE Japan show extensive feldspar alteration at various stages, involving Na-rich and K-rich fluids, respectively. Interestingly, during the later K-rich fluid infiltration at 400-570 ˚C at 0.3–0.45 GPa, plagioclase (An35-60) was replaced by K-feldspar (An0Ab1Or99) and albite (An4Ab94Or2) intergrowth, meaning that simultaneous K-feldspathization and albitization, and nano- to microscale pore network developed preferentially along with albite, resulting in an increase of the bulk rock porosity up to 1.34±0.14%.

To understand the relationship between K-feldspar and albite formations within the same plagioclase grain, we conducted the hydrothermal experiments on the feldspar replacement by using different pairs of starting minerals (anorthite, An96Ab4; labradorite, An66Ab33Or1; albite, An1Ab99) and fluid compositions (2M KCl and/or NaCl aqueous solutions) for 4-8 days. AIn all runs, the replacement processes of feldspars developed the distinct reaction front and pores formation close to the reaction front with porosity up to ~7%. In the experiments with KCl solution, the reaction front migrated twice faster than those with the mixture of KCl and NaCl. The most intense replacement occurred in the run of Labradorite-KCl solution, where large cavities were formed in the center of the labradorite grain with developing albite exsolution, and homogenous rim of K-feldspar precipitation. Such occurrences are similar to the replacement texture observed in the mafic schist within the Kinkasan Island and suggest the preferential removal of Ca and the fixed Na during K-feldspar formation. Our experimental results indicate the primary controls of the fluid composition on the replacement texture, pore formation, and the reaction rate.

Keywords feldspar replacement, micropores, fluid transport, hydrothermal experiment, Kinkasan

How to cite: Nurdiana, A., Okamoto, A., Uno, M., and Tsuchiya, N.: Simultaneous replacement of plagioclase by albite and K-feldspar: natural evidence and hydrothermal experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13915, 2021.

EGU21-14872 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5 | Highlight

Two reduced models for reactive flows in fractured porous media

Alessio Fumagalli and Anna Scotti

In the simulation of many porous media applications, such as geothermal energy, CO2 and nuclear waste storage and groundwater management, transport and reaction processes are fundamental to make accurate and reliable predictions. Moreover, the fractures present in the undeground, with their physical properties (high/low conductivity) and complex geometry are of paramount importance, on one side, but extremely complex to handle on the other. We propose two models based on a geometrical reduction procedure that approximate fractures as objects of lower dimension forming thus a system of mixed-dimensional partial differential equation. The first model describes a thermal reactive flow problem in both the fractures and porous media, coupled with suitable interface conditions. Chemical reactions can change porosity and fracture aperture with dissolution and precipitation of minerals. To obtain the solution for each time step, we consider a splitting strategy so that each physical process is solved sequentially ensuring, at the discrete level, mass conservation.  The second model in addition accounts for a thin layer of porous media surrounding the fractures where the effect of chemical reactions is prevalent, approximating it with a line/surface coupled with the fracture. Its thickness, which may change in time, is estimated with a mono-dimensional equation solved in the direction normal to the fracture. Comparison with the equi-dimensional problem ensure the quality of the proposed models.

How to cite: Fumagalli, A. and Scotti, A.: Two reduced models for reactive flows in fractured porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14872, 2021.

EGU21-14962 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Subpixel determination of wormhole tip position in 4D tomography of dissolving limestone cores

Rishabh Prakash Sharma, Max P. Cooper, Anthony J.C. Ladd, and Piotr Szymczak

Dissolution of porous rocks by reactive fluids is a highly nonlinear process resulting in a variety of dissolution patterns, the character of which depends on physical conditions such as flow rate and reactivity of the fluid. Long, finger-like dissolution channels, “wormholes”, are the main subject of interest in the literature, however, the underlying dynamics of their growth remains unclear. 

While analyzing the tomography data on wormhole growth.  one open question is to define the exact position of the tip of the wormhole. Near the tip the wormhole gradually thins out and the proper resolution of its features is hindered by the finite spatial resolution of the tomographs. In particular, we often observe in the near-tip region several disconnected regions of porosity growth, which - as we hypothesized - are connected by the dissolution channels at subpixel scale. In this study, we show how these features can be better resolved by using numerically calculated flow fields in the reconstructed pore-space. 

We used 70 micrometers, 16-bit grayscale X-ray computed microtomography (XCMT) time series scans of limestone cores, 14mm in diameter and 25mm in length. Scans were performed during the entire dissolution experiment with an interval of 8 minutes. These scans were further processed using a 3-phase segmentation proposed by Luquot et al.[1], in which grayscale voxels are converted to macro-porosity, micro-porosity and grain phases from their grayscale values. The macro-porous phase is assigned a porosity of 1, while the grain phase is assigned 0. Micro-porous regions are assigned an intermediate value determined by linear interpolation between pore and grain threshold using grayscale values. An OpenFOAM based, Darcy-Brinkman solver, porousFoam, is then used to calculate the flow field in this extracted porosity field. 

Porosity contours reconstructed from the tomographs show some disconnected porosity growth near the tip region which later become part of the wormhole in subsequent scans. We have used a novel approach by including the micro-porosity phase in pore-space to calculate the flow-fields in the near-tip region. The calculated flow fields clearly show an extended region of focused flow in front of the wormhole tip, which is a manifestation of the presence of a wormhole at the subpixel scale. These results show that micro-porosity plays an important role in dissolution and 3-phase segmentation combined with the flow field calculations is able to capture the sub-resolved dissolution channels. 

 

 [1] Luquot, L., Rodriguez, O., and Gouze, P.: Experimental characterization of porosity structure and transport property changes in limestone undergoing different dissolution regimes, Transport Porous Med., 101, 507–532, 2014

How to cite: Sharma, R. P., Cooper, M. P., Ladd, A. J. C., and Szymczak, P.: Subpixel determination of wormhole tip position in 4D tomography of dissolving limestone cores, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14962, 2021.

The study of mercury receipt within volcanic activity zones and large hydrothermal systems recently causes the big interest connected with attempts of an estimation of volumes of natural mercury receipt on a daily surface.

The hydrothermal system connected with volcanic massif Big Semyachik is one of the largest on the territory of Kamchatka peninsula. On the surface, the hydrothermal system is manifested by three large hydrothermal fields - the Verhnee Field, the parychay Dolina, and the Northern Crater of the Central Semyachik, the heat export from which is estimated at 300 MW (Vakin, 1976). On the surface of the thermal fields hot thermal waters and powerful steam-gas jets are unloaded.  At the same time, due to the inaccessibility of thermal fields remain poorly studied, and in particular, there is no information on the concentrations of mercury in hydrothermal solutions.

During fieldwork in 2020 all types of thermal waters were sampled, chemical types of waters were established, concentrations of mercury in hydrothermal solutions: for hot thermal waters the average value of mercury was - 0.44 mcg / L, and in steam-gas jets - the average value of mercury was - 4.60 mcg / L.

Thus, in the course of the work the data on concentrations of mercury in hydrothermal solutions of one of the largest hydrothermal systems of Kamchatka were received for the first time.

 

How to cite: Nuzhdaev, A.: Mercury concentrations in thermal waters of the Bolshoi Semyachik hydrothermal system, Russia, Kamchatka., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15094, 2021.

EGU21-16131 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.5

Petrographic and geochemical investigation of naturally CO2-free and CO2-flooded sandstones from the Central Pannonian Basin

Dóra Cseresznyés, Csilla Király, Zsuzsanna Szabó-Krausz, Ágnes Szamosfalvi, Csaba Szabó, György Falus, and György Czuppon

We investigated CO2-free and naturally CO2-flooded sandstone samples from a deep saline aquifers formation, which represents potential carbon storage reservoirs. A descriptive geochemical model is also coupled to the laboratory study for the better understanding of geochemical interaction between sandstone and CO2. The studied area is located in the, Western Hungary in the Little Hungarian Plain where one of the largest CO2-producing fields in Europe can be found. In this region, we have the opportunity to compare rocks of the same sandstone formation without CO2 (not affected by natural CO2 flooding) and naturally CO2 flooded sandstone, where the CO2 was trapped around 7-4 million years ago. As boreholes sampled not only the parts of the formation, which were flooded by CO2 (Mihályi-Répcelak), but also the parts which were not affected at all by this flooding (Ölbő).

Besides petrographic observations, scanning electron microscopy and mineral chemistry analyses, X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy were used to determine 7 CO2-free and 6 CO2-flooded samples textural features, mineral compositions and the presence of OH-bearing minerals. We carried out thermodynamic-batch modelling with PHREEQC geochemical modelling software and compared to the laboratory results.

The sandstone samples from the CO2 bearing reservoirs contain quartz, mica, kaolinite, K-feldspar and carbonates such as dolomite, calcite, ankerite and siderite. The CO2-free samples also contain chlorite, plagioclase and pyrite and all mentioned above. In the CO2-flooded samples a carbonate phase, dawsonite (NaAlCO3(OH)2) could be also observed in significant amounts (3-16 w/w%). This is an indicator mineral of large amount of CO2 inflow in the CO2-water-rock system. In addition, chlorite is apparently missing in the CO2-flooded samples. According to the petrographic observations and X-ray diffraction (XRD) results, it is clear that the plagioclase content is higher (∼ 11 w/w%) in the CO2-free samples compared to the CO2-flooded ones (<1 w/w%). The modal amount of K-feldspar is also lower in the CO2 flooded reservoir rocks. The lower amount of K-feldspar and plagioclase in the CO2-flooded samples can be explained by precipitation of dawsonite. These minerals can dissolve as a result of CO2-flooding and serve Na+ and/or Al3+ ion for dawsonite formation.  The amount of the carbonate minerals also reveal systematic differences between the CO2-free and CO2-flooded sandstone, the amount of ankerite is higher (from 6 to 12 w/w%) in the later ones implying that some parts of the ankerite formed after the CO2 flooding event. 

The investigation of this unique area provides opportunity to study sandstone before interaction with CO2 and after millions of years being in contact with CO2.

Acknowledgements:

This research was financed by Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (K131353).

Dóra Cseresznyés’ work is supported by the Cooperative Doctoral Programme granted by The Ministry for Innovation and Technology (ITM), National Research, Development and Innovation Office.

How to cite: Cseresznyés, D., Király, C., Szabó-Krausz, Z., Szamosfalvi, Á., Szabó, C., Falus, G., and Czuppon, G.: Petrographic and geochemical investigation of naturally CO2-free and CO2-flooded sandstones from the Central Pannonian Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16131, 2021.

HS8.1.8 – Emerging particles and biocolloids in terrestrial and aquatic systems

EGU21-14372 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Magnetic DNA-based microparticle as a hydrological tracer in river-water tracing experiments

Fay van Rhijn, Yuchen Tang, Jan Willem Foppen, and Thom A. Bogaard

Recently an new microparticle tracer has been developed for investigating in stream-mass transport: a silica coated synthetic-DNA-tagged microparticles with a superparamagnetic core (SiDNAMag). SiDNAMag particles can be easily recovered by magnetic separation, with high DNA signal amplification by Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR). However, with the presence of natural colloids, particulate matter and river bed sediments, SiDNAMag are likely to undergo complex interaction processes besides dispersion and advection. Moreover, little has been known for the possible sink sources of SiDNAMag tracer mass loss during transport in river waters.

In this research the focus is on investigating the transport behaviour of the SiDNAMag particle as a potential hydrological tracer. The behaviour of the SiDNAMag particles will be compared to those of solute tracers (NaCl) and silica microparticles in terms of breakthrough curves and mass recoveries, by performing open channel injection experiments in laboratory environment. The resulting breakthrough curves will be interpreted with a 1-D advection and dispersion model. Possible interactions and mass loss will be examined by performing batch and injection experiments in different river water types with the presence of river bottom sediments.

How to cite: van Rhijn, F., Tang, Y., Foppen, J. W., and Bogaard, T. A.: Magnetic DNA-based microparticle as a hydrological tracer in river-water tracing experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14372, 2021.

Understanding interactions of bubbles with surfaces in water is critical to a variety of engineered applications and environmental concerns such as delivery of the nanobubbles for in-situ soil remediation and use of flotation in water treatment. van der Waals (VDW) force is one of the main forces controlling the interaction between a colloid and a surface in electrolyte solution. It has been recognized that the VDW force is repulsive between a solid surface and a colloid if it is a bubble. Thus, the bubbles did not stick to walls in water. However, it is still not very clear about the mechanisms controlling the repulsive VDW interactions between bubbles and walls to date. Here we used the Hamaker approach to develop an analytical model to quantify the interaction between bubbles and surfaces in water. We provided explanation for why the bubble-surface interaction is repulsive in water. Our findings have important implication to undertanding the natural and engineered processes that involve bubbles in aqutic environments.

How to cite: Shen, C.: Why are the van der Waals forces repulsive for interactions of bubbles with solid-water interface?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7052, 2021.

EGU21-11541 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Colloidal Transport of Heavy Metals in Natural Subsurface Sediments

Sema Sevinc Sengor

Colloid particles are widely distributed in the environment. These colloids have recently been gaining significant attention due to their unique characteristics in environmental remediation pertaining to degradation, transformation and immobilization of contaminants in soils and aquifers. On the other hand, once mobilized by subsurface water flow, colloids may pose risks to surface water and groundwater quality as they are effective ‘‘carriers’’ of a variety of common contaminants found in water and soils. Therefore, understanding the transport mechanisms of the colloids and incorporation of colloidal transport processes in reactive transport models are crucial for successful applications of many remediation efforts in the subsurface. Fe (hydr)oxide colloidal compounds have large surface areas and high reactivity, which can lead to spontaneous adsorption of many pollutants. For the successful stabilization of pollutants, it is vital to understand the associated biogeochemical processes, and competitive effects of contaminant sorption onto these colloidal phases. This work focuses on the development of a mechanistic Fe(hydr)oxide based colloid-facilitated reactive transport model which identifies the impact of Fe(hydr)oxide colloids on the stability and mobility of heavy metals (Zn and Pb) in example subsurface sediments of Lake Coeur d’Alene (LCdA), USA. Key reactions include the mobilization of heavy metals initially sorbed onto the colloidal Fe(hydr)oxide minerals through microbial reductive dissolution. Precipitation of metal sulfides at depth as a result of biogenic sulfide production is also captured. The simulations compare the biogeochemical cycling of metals considering colloidal vs. immobile phases of Fe(hydr)oxide minerals in the lake sediments.

How to cite: Sengor, S. S.: Colloidal Transport of Heavy Metals in Natural Subsurface Sediments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11541, 2021.

The release of biochar colloids considerably affects the stability of biochar in environment. Currently, information on the release behavior and suspension stability of biochar colloids in real soil solutions is scarce. In this study, 20 soils were collected from different districts in China and the release behavior of biochar colloids and their suspension stability in soil solutions were systematically examined. The results showed that both pyrolysis temperature and biomass source had important effects on the formation of biochar colloids in soil solutions. The formation amount of biochar colloids from low pyrolysis temperatures (400 ℃) (average amount of 9.33–16.41 mg/g) were significantly higher than those from high pyrolysis temperatures (700 ℃) (average amount of less than 2 mg/g). The formation amount of wheat straw-derived biochar colloids were higher than those of rice straw-derived biochar colloids probably due to the higher O/C ratio in wheat-straw biochar. Further, biochar colloidal formation amount was negatively correlated with comprehensive effect of dissolved organic carbon, Fe and Al in soil solutions. The sedimentation curve of biochar colloids in soil solutions is well described by an exponential model and demonstrated high suspension stability. Around 40% of the biochar colloids were maintained in the suspension at the final sedimentation equilibrium. The settling efficiency of biochar colloids was positively correlated with comprehensive effect of the ionic strength and K, Ca, Na, and Mg contents in soil solutions. Our findings help promote a deeper understanding of biochar loss and stability in the soil-water environment.

How to cite: Fang, J.: Release and sedimentation behaviors of biochar colloids in soil solutions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5285, 2021.

EGU21-1861 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Synergistic Effects of Unsaturated Flow and Soil Organic Matter on Retention and Transport of PPCPs in Soils

Xijuan Chen, Yuanyuan Dai, and Jie Zhuang

This study examines the effects of soil organic matter (SOM) and water content on the transport of five selected pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs, ibuprofen, carbamazepine, bisphenol A, tetracycline, and ciprofloxacin) in four natural soils with different SOM contents. Batch isotherm experiment results showed that SOM effect was very significant for positively charged tetracycline and ciprofloxacin, relatively significant for non-dissociated carbamazepine and bisphenol A and insignificant for negatively charged ibuprofen in the soils. Transport results showed that neither tetracycline nor ciprofloxacin moved through the saturated and unsaturated soil columns, demonstrating their very limited mobility in soils as a result of significant electrostatic attraction independent of SOM and water conditions. Overall, higher SOM content and lower water content were favorable to the retention of ibuprofen, carbamazepine and bisphenol A in the soils. The effect of water content was not significant in the SOM-removed soils. The SOM could increase the kinetic (type 2) adsorption of PPCPs at the solid-water interface (SWI), and the air phase could increase the instantaneous (type 1) adsorption of PPCPs at the air-water interface (AWI). This result suggests that lowering water content could greatly enhance the adsorption of PPCPs that had high affinities to soils and vice versa. This study provides an important implication that AWI and SWI might have a nonlinear relationship in promoting the adsorption and reducing the mobility of PPCPs under unsaturated flow conditions.

How to cite: Chen, X., Dai, Y., and Zhuang, J.: Synergistic Effects of Unsaturated Flow and Soil Organic Matter on Retention and Transport of PPCPs in Soils, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1861, 2021.

EGU21-6591 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Use of Veterinary Pharmaceuticals and Application via Manure Slurries to Soil in the Netherlands

Nikola Rakonjac, Sjoerd van der Zee, Louise Wipfler, Erwin Roex, and Hans Kros

Veterinary Pharmaceuticals (VPs) are used world-wide to cure or prevent illness of animals, and increasingly investigated in view of emissions into the environment. It is known that environmental routes of VPs are complex while transport rates and persistence are not yet well established. Our investigation focuses on the route till application of VPs in (liquid) manure to soil. To characterize this for the Netherlands, we investigated national usage of 4 livestock sectors (dairy cow, veal calf, sow and fattening pig), as well as animal excretion rates prior and degradation during slurry manure storage. This has been done for 12 antibiotics, 4 antiparasitic drugs and one hormone. An inventory of data bases and taking into account data reliability, revealed for almost all substances a reduction of quantities administrated to the animals during the period 2015-2018. Literature review on excretion rates identified that there is still insufficient information, despite that those rates directly influence the VP portions in the environment. Our developed storage model showed that VPs concentrations during a period of 6 months could reduce by a factor as large as 60 and that the fractions present in that manure are highly dependent on animal type, quantity of produced manure and substance degradation rates. At the same time, our predicted after-storage concentrations were found to be comparable with the reported measurements available for some parts of the Netherlands. Considering that similar manure types are applied on arable lands and grasslands in considerable quantities in many other countries, our approach and results may represent a good foundation for further research on the environmental fate of VPs.

How to cite: Rakonjac, N., van der Zee, S., Wipfler, L., Roex, E., and Kros, H.: Use of Veterinary Pharmaceuticals and Application via Manure Slurries to Soil in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6591, 2021.

EGU21-9781 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Effects of colloidal manure DOM on the transport of antibiotics in calcareous soils

Xiangyu Tang, Chen Liu, Fanglin Luo, Shuhan Li, and Hongwei Yang

Colloids in the environment are defined as suspended particles in the size range of 1 nm to 10 microns. Both organic matter and antibiotics leached from animal manures applied to farmland may pose a pollution risk of groundwater. Manure colloids, which are mainly composed of dissolved organic matter (DOM), have been known to play an important role in facilitating transport of various strongly-sorbing contaminants in subsurface environments. Research on co-transport behavior of manure colloid DOM and antibiotics is lacking. In the present study, the effects of colloidal DOM derived from pig manure and chicken manure on the transport of different antibiotics were examined in a cropland soil and an orchard soil. According to the breakthrough curves obtained for repacked soil columns (2.5 cm in diameter, 15 cm in height) under a simulated rainfall intensity of 20 mm/h, florfenicol was highly mobile and leached out almost simultaneously with the water flow tracer Br for the cropland soil, which exhibited an 11%-23% higher leaching capacity than for the orchard soil. On the other hand, norfloxacin and tylosin did not penetrate through the column and most of their residues were retained in the top soil layer. Pig manure DOM delayed the breakthrough of florfenicol by 0.07-0.13 pore volume and increased its residues by 15%-26% as a result of enhanced retention through a co-sorption mechanism, and similar effects of chicken manure DOM were observed.

How to cite: Tang, X., Liu, C., Luo, F., Li, S., and Yang, H.: Effects of colloidal manure DOM on the transport of antibiotics in calcareous soils, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9781, 2021.

EGU21-2751 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Removal performance of faecal indicators by natural and silver-modified zeolites under dynamic batch experiments

Vasiliki I. Syngouna, Ioannis Skandalis, and Apostolos Vantarakis

The use of natural zeolites (NZs) in waste-water treatment plants is one of the oldest and most promising applications.  Modified natural zeolites (MZs) have shown improved ion exchange and adsorption capacities and have been extensively applied for the removal of pollutants (metal(loid) ions, ammonia etc) from aqueous solutions. However, MZs application in biological pollutants such as indicator organisms or pathogens has not been extensively explored. This study examines the antimicrobial effect of both natural Greek zeolite (NZ), with clinoptilolite content up to 85% (OLYMPOS SA), and modified Greek zeolite by incorporation with silver ions (Ag-MNZ) on the survival of two selected bacteria. The chosen organisms, Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecalis, constitute indicators of fecal contamination in both soils and water. Scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray detection (SEM-EDX) were used for the surface morphology and elemental composition of the NZ and Ag-MNZ samples, respectively. A series of dynamic batch experiments were conducted at constant room temperature (22°C) in order to examine the inactivation of the above bacteria by NZ and Ag-MNZ.  It was found that the Ag-MNZ resulted in much higher reduction of the bacterial numbers when compared to the NZ and control (absence of zeolites). Moreover, the reduction in the bacterial numbers was affected by NZ particle size with higher reduction observed for coarse (1-3 mm) than fine (0-1) NZ. Finally, the E. faecalis was found to be more resistant than E.coli to Ag-MNZ.

How to cite: Syngouna, V. I., Skandalis, I., and Vantarakis, A.: Removal performance of faecal indicators by natural and silver-modified zeolites under dynamic batch experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2751, 2021.

EGU21-16418 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Impact of bionanocomposite on aggregation rate of soil colloids

Kira Kalinichenko, Viktoria Oliinyk, Pavlo Vorotytskyi, and Igor Volobayev

Soil degradation is a global issue, as the demand for food and feed consumption is growing rapidly every day, and agricultural land needed for their production is declining rapidly. The UN reports that 24 billion tons of fertile land are lost every year. One of the most important parameters causing and maintaining soil fertility is the presence of water-stable macroaggregates (> 0.25 mm) with a developed porous structure. In natural soil, aggregate formation occurs under the following main processes – coagulation with polyvalent cations, “glueing”/cementation under the action of mineral amorphous "glues" (silica, metal oxides/ hydroxides) and organic amphiphilic substances (microbial exopolymers and humic substances). In this research work we estimated the impact of bio-nanocomposite and its individual constituents with structure forming ability on the remediation efficacy of a degraded soil model sample.
The bio-nanocomposite was synthesised from active sludge. The composition of the bio-nanocomposite includes mineral matter – 36 %, organic matter – 64 %, humic acids, fulvic acids, ammonifying bacteria, nitrate-assimilating bacteria, actinomycetes, fungi, and metal nanoparticles in form of insoluble or sparingly soluble salts. To assess the effect of the concentration of bio-nanocomposite on the aggregation of soil colloids, the nanocomposites were added to the model soil system in concentrations of 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 50%, and compared with control unenriched soil.  The dynamics of soil colloids aggregation was assessed by the value of the optical density of aqueous suspensions at four months. The results indicate a correlation between the concentration of the introduced bio-nanocomposite and the degree of soil colloids aggregation – up to 70% after 2 months of incubation and up to 80% after 4 months. Analysis of the impact on the structure-forming processes of individual constituents of the bio-nanocomposite showed that nanoparticles of polyvalent metals made the most significant contribution (82 %), humic and fulvic acids had slightly less influence (80% and 78%, respectively). Exopolymers had the weakest effect on aggregation processes. Since exopolymers act as natural flocculants, their flocculating properties are highly dependent on the concentration, and at high concentrations they can stabilize colloidal particles.

How to cite: Kalinichenko, K., Oliinyk, V., Vorotytskyi, P., and Volobayev, I.: Impact of bionanocomposite on aggregation rate of soil colloids, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16418, 2021.

EGU21-2263 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Flagella and their property affect the transport and deposition behaviors of Escherichia coli in quartz sand

Mengya Zhang, Lei He, and Meiping Tong

The effects of bacterial flagella as well as their property on the transport and deposition of bacteria were examined by using four types of Escherichia coli (E.coli) with or without flagella, as well as with normal or sticky flagella. Packed column, quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCM-D), visible parallel plate flow chamber system, as well as visible flow chamber system packed with porous media system were utilized to investigate the deposition behaviors and the deposition mechanisms of bacteria with different property of flagella. We found that the presence of flagella favored E.coli deposition onto quartz sand/silica surfaces. Moreover, by changing the porous media porosity and directly observing the deposition process of bacteria in porous media, grain-to-grain contacts were found to be major sites for bacterial deposition. Particularly, flagella could help bacteria swim near and then deposit at grain-to-grain contacts. In addition, we found that due to the stronger adhesive forces, sticky flagella could further enhance bacterial deposition onto quartz sand/silica surfaces. Elution experiments showed that the portion of bacteria with flagella depositing onto secondary energy minima was relatively lower than bacteria without flagella, indicating that flagella could help bacteria attach onto sand surfaces more irreversibly. Clearly, flagella and their property would have obvious influence on the transport and deposition behaviors of bacteria in porous media. By removing the flagella or changing their property, the transport and deposition of bacteria in porous media can be altered. Particularly, bacterial flagella can be removed to facilitate the transport of bacteria in remediation system requiring high mobility of bacteria, while in system requiring the immobilization bacteria in porous media, bacteria with sticky flagella can be employed.

How to cite: Zhang, M., He, L., and Tong, M.: Flagella and their property affect the transport and deposition behaviors of Escherichia coli in quartz sand, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2263, 2021.

EGU21-115 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Modeling of microbial interaction in degradable polymers under simulated water environment

Prasanth Babu Ramesh, Shobha Shukla, Sumit Saxena, and Tanveer Adyel

Nearly 80% of oceanic plastic waste is from land-based sources including degradable polymers. The recent trend towards the use of degradable polymers in the form of photodegradable and biodegradable polymers promises to be a sustainable solution to plastic pollution, whereas microplastics (MPs) impose higher ecological risk due to limited knowledge of its physicochemical properties and behavioral dynamics in the aquatic environment.  This study is aimed at modeling the effect of the weathering process of degradable microplastics by plastic surface-based microbial communities. Source-specific degradable polymers with different weathering processes such as abrasion, solar radiation, microbial colonization, UV radiation, chemical, and thermal oxidation, and other environmental factors were assessed.  Cluster analysis of efficient degradable microorganisms over MPs weathering conditions highlighted to understand the microbial kinetics.  Simulation models are also used to mechanistically characterize and analyze the behavioral patterns of microorganism colonization of MPs and its weathering influence are discussed in detail. Multispecies microbial colonization is largely understudied and experimentally exhaustive to quantify, nevertheless, there is minimal literature on the parameterization of such models and more experimental work is needed to better optimize the parameters in these models for a broad range of microbial communities and microplastic leachate chemicals.  This work not only provides a better understanding of the fate and behavior of degradable microplastics in the aquatic environment, but these findings also serve as a requisite to better design and optimize the essential parameters for experimental strategies for the development of environmentally friendly novel polymers.

How to cite: Ramesh, P. B., Shukla, S., Saxena, S., and Adyel, T.: Modeling of microbial interaction in degradable polymers under simulated water environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-115, 2021.

EGU21-10339 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Morphological effect of ZnO nanoparticles for photocatalytic degradation of azo dyes in water

Sayed Amininejad, Thomas Baumann, Nasrin Talebian, and Seyedeh Matin Amininezhad

Discharge of organic dyes from different industries into receiving rivers and natural streams poses serious problems for the environment because of their toxicity. These dyes are not readily biodegradable and therefore, their removal from effluents is urgent. Various methods used for removal of dyes from wastewater, such as coagulation, flocculation, filtration or reverse osmosis are quite expensive and have a low removal efficiency. On the contrary, Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) using metal oxide semiconductors like ZnO, are capable to operate effectively and efficiently to degrade many dye pollutants.

In this work, ZnO nanoparticles were successfully synthesized via a simple solvothermal method with different solvents. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging showed that nanoflower, nanorod, and nanosphere ZnO particles were produced when water, 1-hexanol, and ethylene glycol were used as the solvent, respectively. Nanoflower ZnO particles exhibited higher photocatalytic reduction efficiencies under UV light irradiation than nanosphere and nanorod particles. Results suggested a close relationship between the photocatalytic activity and the particle morphology and size which was due to using different solvents in preparation processes. Also, the recovery of ZnO nanoparticles was investigated and samples showed stable photodegradation efficiencies after being reused for three times.

How to cite: Amininejad, S., Baumann, T., Talebian, N., and Amininezhad, S. M.: Morphological effect of ZnO nanoparticles for photocatalytic degradation of azo dyes in water, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10339, 2021.

EGU21-11029 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Effect of Fe (oxyhydr)oxide morphology on phytic acid transport under saturated flow condition

Kang Zhao, Xiang Wang, Arai Yuji, and Jianying Shang

Natural iron (oxyhydr)oxides are ubiquitous in subsurface environments. Phytic acid (myo-inositol hexaphosphate, IHP), a dominant form of organic phosphate (OP) in organic carbon-rich surface soils, strongly binds with Fe (oxyhydr)oxide. The cotransport of IHP and Fe (oxyhydr)oxide with different morphology under acid and alkaline conditions in the subsurface is mostly overlooked. These cotransport processes are critical for P (bio)geochemical processes in the subsurface that is rich in Fe (oxyhydr)oxides. Three Fe (oxyhydr)oxides (ferrihydrite, hematite, and goethite) were chosen in this study, and the cotransport of IHP and Fe (oxyhydr)oxide was investigated in saturated columns by injecting Fe (oxyhydr)oxide under different IHP concentrations (0, 10, 25, 50, and 100 µM) at pH of 5 and 10. The presence of IHP significantly enhanced the mobility of Fe (oxyhydr)oxide at both pH 5 and 10 due to the stronger electrostatic repulsion between Fe (oxyhydr)oxide and quartz sand. At low IHP concentrations (< 50 µM IHP), goethite with a rod-like morphology showed strong mobility due to its orientation transport along with the water flow streamline. The mobility of amorphous Fe (oxyhydr)oxide, ferrihydrite, was much slower than the goethite. However, ferrihydrite could facilitate more IHP transport due to its sorption capacity for IHP that is higher than goethite and hematite. At high IHP concentrations (> 50 μM), surface precipitation might have occurred on ferrihydrite because of its poorly ordered crystallinity, which contributed to its less negatively charged surface and weak ferrihydrite facilitated IHP transport. The new insight provided in this study is important for evaluating the transport behavior and impact of IHP in a saturated solum rich in Fe (oxyhydr)oxides.

How to cite: Zhao, K., Wang, X., Yuji, A., and Shang, J.: Effect of Fe (oxyhydr)oxide morphology on phytic acid transport under saturated flow condition, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11029, 2021.

The released silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) will inevitably interact with suspended sediment (SS), because of the ubiquity and abundance of SS in aquatic systems. However, the effect mechanism of SS on the transformation of AgNPs remains unknown and unpredictable. This research investigated the effect of SS on the aggregation, settling, and dissolution of polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated (PVP) AgNPs under environmentally diverse salinity conditions. By determining the morphology of AgNP–SS heteroaggregates and using the DLVO analysis, we revealed that the heteroaggregation between AgNPs and SS was dependent on ionic strength. The formation of AgNP-SS heteroaggregates eventually lead to the rapid settling of AgNPs. Besides, the interactions of sediment-associated dissolved organic matter (SS-DOM) with AgNPs interfered the dissolution of AgNPs under different NaCl concentrations. The fate (i.e., aggregation, dissolution and settling) of AgNP in sediment-laden water has been found to be strongly dependent on the presence of SS, SS-DOM and ionic strength. This work provides novel insight into the interaction between suspended particulate matter and AgNPs as well as its effect on AgNP physicochemical transformation in aquatic environment.

How to cite: Zhao, J. and Li, Y.: Stability and dissolution of silver nanoparticles in sediment-laden water: Influence of suspended sediment and associated dissolved organic matter, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1945, 2021.

EGU21-9285 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Silver nanoparticles used to counter Monilinia fructicola fungicide-resistance and reduce fungicide environmental footprint 

Constantinos Chrysikopoulos, Anastasios A. Malandrakis, Nektarios Kavroulakis, and Anthi Stefanarou
The potential of silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) to control plant pathogen Moniliafructicola and to deter environmental contamination by reducing fungicide doses was evaluated in vitro and in vivo.  Fungitoxicity screening of M. fructicola isolates resulted in the detection of 18 benzimidazole-resistant (BEN-R) isolates with reduced sensitivity to fungicides  thiophanate methyl (TM)  and carbendazim. All resistant isolates caried the E198A resistance mutation in their β-tubulin gene, target site of the benzimidazole fungicides. Ag-NPs could effectively control both sensitive (BEN-S) and resistant isolates while the combination of Ag-NPs with TM significantly enhanced their fungitoxic effect both in vitro and in apple fruit tests. The positive correlation observed between Ag-NPs and TM+Ag-NPs treatments indicates a mixture-enhanced Ag-NPs activity/availability as a possible mechanism of synergy. No correlation between Ag-NPs  and AgNOcould  be found suggesting difference(s) in the fungitoxic mechanism of action between Nps and their bulk/ionic counterparts. Indications of the involvement of energy (ATP) metabolism in the mode of action of Ag-NPs were also evident by the synergy observed between Ag-NPs and the oxidative phosphorylation-uncoupler fluazinam (FM) against both BEN-R and BEN-S phenotypes. The role of silver ions release on the inhibitory action of Ag-NPs against the fungusis probably limited since the AgNPs/NaCl combination enhanced fungitoxicity, a fact that could not be justified by the expected binding of silver with chlorine ions. Concluding, Ag-NPs can be effectively used as a means of controlling both BEN-S and BEN-R M. fructicola isolates while their combination with conventional fungicides should aid anti-resistant strategies and reduce the environmental impact of synthetic fungicides by reducing effective doses to the control the pathogen.

How to cite: Chrysikopoulos, C., Malandrakis, A. A., Kavroulakis, N., and Stefanarou, A.: Silver nanoparticles used to counter Monilinia fructicola fungicide-resistance and reduce fungicide environmental footprint , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9285, 2021.

EGU21-12349 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Investigating the fate of gold nanoparticles taken up by trees through leaf and root pathways

Paula Ballikaya, Ivano Brunner, Claudia Cocozza, Ralf Kaegi, Marcus Schaub, Leonie Schönbeck, Brian Sinnet, and Paolo Cherubini

Industrial activities and human population growth have resulted in an unprecedented increase in the release of particulate matter (PM) into the environment. Incidental nanoparticles (NPs) as a byproduct of industrial processes and engineered NPs are being discharged into terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Several studies on the impact of PM and NPs on human health have been conducted this century, but their effects on plants are poorly understood. What happens to them in forest ecosystems and trees has yet to be explored. The use of dendrochemistry to monitor air pollution is essential to provide past levels of contamination. Several studies have shown the ability of trees to accumulate pollutants into their annual rings, but the effect of particles at nano-scale is still largely unknown and their presence in tree rings unexplored.

In July 2019, a greenhouse experiment was conducted in order a) to confirm the uptake and transport of NPs in trees, b) to determine the delivery efficiency of different NPs entry pathways (leaves and roots), and c) to investigate the influence of surface-charged NPs on their uptake and transport. The fate of gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) was investigated in two tree species, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). In the experiment, 40nm surface-charged AuNPs (positive, negative, and neutral AuNPs, hereafter referred to as treatments) were supplied once, separately to leaves and to roots. Twenty days after the treatment, Au concentration (mg kg-1) in leaves, stem and roots was determined by ICP-MS. In the leaf supply, Au concentrations were higher in leaves (98.3% and 99.2% on average, in beech and Scots pine respectively) and stems (1.4% and 0.45% on average) than in roots (0.3% and 0.35% on average). In the root supply, higher Au concentration was found in the roots (99.9 % on average in both species) than in the stems (0.1% on average in both species), whereas gold was not detected in the leaves. In the majority of cases, the measured Au was greater in beech than in Scots pine, probably due to their higher stomatal activity. AuNP concentrations among the treatments were significantly different (p value < 0.05), but distribution pattern in Scots pine were not discernible. In conclusion, AuNPs can be taken up by roots and leaves and transported to different compartments of trees. Different entry pathways influence the NP delivery within the plant tissues through transport mechanisms that are still unclear. It seems that NPs are allowed to move faster from the leaves through the phloem to the xylem and are further distributed throughout the plant system, including to the roots. The influence of surface-charged nanoparticles on their uptake and transport is not completely clear, and further research is needed in order to understand their behavior in trees.

This study shows the potential of trees as proxies to monitor NPs in forest ecosystems. Using tree rings as spatiotemporal indicators of the impact of particles on the environment will help a quantitative risk assessment and management of atmospheric particulate matter and NPs concentrations in the environment.

How to cite: Ballikaya, P., Brunner, I., Cocozza, C., Kaegi, R., Schaub, M., Schönbeck, L., Sinnet, B., and Cherubini, P.: Investigating the fate of gold nanoparticles taken up by trees through leaf and root pathways, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12349, 2021.

EGU21-3074 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Microplastics research at the interface of aquatic and terrestrial systems – Opinion

Julia Prume and Collin Weber

Rivers are often pictured as transport routes for plastics and microplastics from land to sea. Indeed, from a geological and geomorphological perspective, the main system function of rivers is the transport of water and sediments. An increasing amount of studies has detected microplastics not only in river waters but also in river sediments, banks and floodplains. The occurrence of microplastics in both aquatic and terrestrial systems raises the question of processes related to microplastics at the two system’s interface. However, in microplastics’ research, aquatic and terrestrial compartments are usually investigated separately from each other. Such a restricted perspective cannot explain reality adequately: Rivers are highly dynamic and complex systems, they are framed by and interact with terrestrial systems on different spatial and temporal scales. This interaction is known with regard to sediment deposition and erosion as well as pollutant or nutrient enrichment. In microplastics’ research, to date, little is known on interface processes such as (potentially bidirectional) horizontal and vertical plastic transport, deposition and erosion as well as remobilization. Little is known on the fate of plastics within both systems and at the interface: fragmentation, leaching and absorption of chemicals, biofilm formation, homoaggregation, heteroaggregation, intake by plant and animal organisms. However, a comprehensive understanding of sources, transport paths, as well as sinks is not only an academic problem but can support political stakeholders to manage pollution by microplastics. Therefore, we suggest to shed light not only on microplastics’ abundance in rivers or soils but also on processes at the interface of aquatic and terrestrial systems.

How to cite: Prume, J. and Weber, C.: Microplastics research at the interface of aquatic and terrestrial systems – Opinion, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3074, 2021.

There is a growing concern that the steady increase in plastic production is leading to a substantial contamination of our environment with microplastic particles. While aquatic ecosystems are more and more studied, there is still a substantial lack in knowledge regrading terrestrial (mainly soil) system. This knowledge gap is partly related to the challenges to detect and analyses microplastic particles in soils. Firstly, it is difficult to extract microplastic from a matrix of organic and inorganic particles of similar size. Secondly, the well-established spectroscopic methods to detect microplastic in water samples are sensitive to organic material and are moreover very time consuming. Eliminating very stable organic particles (e.g. lignin) from soil samples without affecting the microplastic to be measured is hardly possible. Hence, a robust analytical approach is needed to tackle the microplastic detection in soils. In this study, we combine a density separation scheme, a 3D Laser Scanning Confocal Microscope (Keyence VK-X1000, Japan) and a machine learning algorithm to classify and analyses microplastic particles in soil samples. For the analysis a silty loam (16% sand, 59% silt, 25% clay, 1.3% organic carbon) and a loamy sand (72% sand, 18% silt, 10% clay, 0.9% organic carbon) were spiked with different concentrations of high density Polyethylene (HDPE), low density Polyethylene (LDPE), Polystyrene (PS) and Polybutylene adipate terephthalate/Ploy lactic acid (PBAT/PLA) microplastic (HDPE 50 - 100 and 250 - 300 µm, LDPE <50 and 200 - 800 µm, PS <100 µm, PBAT/PLA < 2 mm). The classification with a machine learning algorithm is an essential data processing step to distinguishes between plastic, mineral as well as organic particles left after density separation. In case microplastic adopts the soil color, a combination of optical information and surface characteristics are used for a successful classification. Overall, the 3D Laser Scanning Confocal Microscopy in combination with a machine learning algorithm is a promising tool to detect, quantify and analyses microplastic in soils.

How to cite: Zeyer, T. and Fiener, P.: Microplastic detection in terrestrial systems using a classification on optical values and surface characteristics , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3051, 2021.

EGU21-5407 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Destruction of microplastics in the natural environment

Vladimir Kovalevski and Mikhail Zobkov

Morphological structure and chemical composition of environmental microplastics (MPs) extracted from water and bottom sediments of Lake Onego were studied. Raman spectroscopy was used to identify MPs polymer types and scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive microanalysis was used to study the morphology and trace elements composition of inclusions on their surface. The features of the destruction of MPs, as well as the presence of various chemical elements on their surface including heavy metals, were investigated. Four main mechanisms of MPs microdestruction have been identified: (1) Local destruction of monophasic MPs caused by local oxidation and cleavage of thin flakes and fragments with the formation of nanoscale plastics. (2) The destruction of multiphase microplastics predominantly determined by the selective destruction of one of the phases of the composite, for example, the ligament scission between the individual components of the plastic with their separation. (3) Microbiological destruction of MPs under the influence of diatoms by fixing spores of diatoms on defects of MPs with their subsequent growth, deflection, and separation of nanoscale polymer particles. (4) Mineralogical destruction of MPs associated with the sorption of chemical elements and crystallization of nanocrystals, which under appropriate conditions begin to grow and break-up the MPs accelerating the process of its destruction. The last mechanism have not yet been reported. These mechanisms initiate nanoplastics formation, which increases particles mobility in the aquatic environment and their threat to water organisms. At the same time, the fouling with diatoms (with a silica shell) and the sorption of heavy elements increase the bulk specific density of MPs and contribute to its accumulation in bottom sediments.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant number 19-17-00035.

How to cite: Kovalevski, V. and Zobkov, M.: Destruction of microplastics in the natural environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5407, 2021.

Plastics pollution of terrestrial environments is a global problem, and plastics have been observed even in remote areas. However, how much plastic is present in terrestrial ecosystems is not well known. Here, we present a theoretical framework for representative sampling of randomly distributed plastic particles in soils or sediments. Based on geostatistical analysis, we determined optimal sampling strategies to quantify micro- and nanoplastics in soils or sediments. We used numerical simulations to test the sampling of randomly distributed plastic particles, and determined the sampling support (number of cores or sampling area) needed to obtain plastic concentrations within a specific error. Plastic pollution in the field was numerically simulated by placing plastic particles randomly in two dimensional space. We then took soil samples with differently sized cores, and determined plastic concentration as a function of number of cores taken. We will show how many cores are needed to determine the plastic concentrations within a given error.

How to cite: Yu, Y. and Flury, M.: How Many Soil Samples Do We Need to Take to Determine Concentrations of Micro- and Nanoplastics in Terrestrial Systems?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10420, 2021.

To assess microplastics abundance in the aquatic environment different filtering tools (nets, meshes and filters) are generally applied.  As a result, their naturally occurring size-frequency distributions are altered because of removing of items smaller than the mesh size. This hampers comparison of the results between studies utilized filters and nets of different mesh size. To assess the process of MPs generation and filtration, a stochastic model of macroplastic destruction coupled with the model of MPs filtration on the net was proposed. The stochastic model of macroplastic destruction incorporates empirical parameterizations of fracture position and fracture probability as a function of particle shape. The model sensitivity was tested in respect to the input parameters: the initial number of particles, the initial size of the macroparticles, the number of fracture steps (number of generations, i.e. the final ‘age’ of the particles), and the number of independent ‘sources’ in the final particle set.

The simulation results were compared with the available publications as well as with the data collected at Lake Onego. This allowed us to achieve qualitative agreement between the modelled and the observed distributions based on the similarity of the shape of size-frequency distribution curve in log-log scale.

Large particles, which have all three dimensions larger than the mesh size, are retained by the net efficiently. For others the probability of particle retention by the net depends on the particle shape, smallest and largest dimensions, and particle orientation in space.

To simulate the actual filtration process on the net, a mathematical model of filtration process was developed. The model passes a given set of three-dimensional particles (in quasi-elliptic approximation) through a two-dimensional net with a given cell size. Randomly given parameters determine the position of a particle in space, the size of its projection on the two-dimensional plane (net), and the position of the particle centre with respect to the corners of the cell (net). 

The results of plastic breaking simulation were coupled with a stochastic MP particle filtration model. This allowed us to show qualitatively how the shape of size-frequency distribution of MP particles is altered after the filtering through the net with a mesh size close to the lower boundary. This information can be used to compare the results obtained in studies utilized different neuston nets and filters, which is one of the most relevant tasks in the assessment of environmental contamination by microplastics on a global scale.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant number 19-17-00035.

How to cite: Bagaev, A. and Zobkov, M.: Prediction of microplastics particles size-frequency distribution via the stochastic modelling of their formation and filtration on the net, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7761, 2021.

EGU21-964 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Microplastic water repellency impacts water flow and microplastic transport in soils

Andreas Cramer, Pascal Benard, Anders Kaestner, Mohsen Zare, and Andrea Carminati

Soils are considered the largest sink of microplastic particles (MP) in terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is little knowledge on the implications of MP contaminating soils. In particular, we do not know the extent of and conditions under which MP are transported through porous media and, if they are deposited, how they affect soil hydraulic properties and soil moisture dynamics. We hypothesize that: 1) hydrophobic MP enhance soil water repellency; 2) isolated MP are displaced and transported by the air-water interface; 3) clusters of MP impede water flow and are retained in air-filled pores.

We tested these hypotheses in mixtures of MP (µm range) and sands (mm range) in a series of experiments. The Sessile Drop Method (SDM) was applied to measure the average contact angle (CA) of the mixtures for MP and model porous media in the same size range, ranging from 0 - 100 % MP content. Based on the specific surface and shape factor of MP and soil particles, the results are extrapolated to different MP and soil particle sizes. Capillary rise experiments were performed to measure the impact of MP on water infiltration. The applied MP contents of 0.35 % and 1.05 % reflect an average CA of 60° and 90° from the SDM extrapolation. Capillary rise of water and ethanol were carried out to estimate the apparent CA. Additionally and with the same MP content, we simultaneously imaged in three-dimensions the movement of deuterated water and MP during repeated drying / wetting cycles using X-Ray and Neutron tomography (at the beamline ICON, PSI). The different neutron attenuation coefficients of deuterated water and MP allows for estimating their distribution in the sand packing.

Already at MP contents of 5 % the CA measured with the SDM exhibited a steep increase and reached 59° to 81°, depending on the grain size of MP. The capillary rise experiments showed that MP reduce capillary rise. The apparent CA (43° and 53°) were smaller compared to the average CA from the SDM (60° and 90°), but the added MP increased air entrapment during capillary rise leading to a reduced saturation of the pore space (18 % and 16.5 %). Accumulation of MP at the advancing air-water interface was visible. Neutron and X-ray imaging showed at high resolution that regions with major MP content are water repellent and, are bypassed by water flow, and remain in air-filled pores.

Extrapolation of these results to soils suggests that in microregions with high MP contents, water infiltration is hindered. The low water content in these microregions might limit MP degradation due to reductions in: hydrolysis, coating of MP by e.g. dissolved organic substances, and colonization by microorganisms.

How to cite: Cramer, A., Benard, P., Kaestner, A., Zare, M., and Carminati, A.: Microplastic water repellency impacts water flow and microplastic transport in soils, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-964, 2021.

EGU21-2383 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Spatial analysis of riverine microplastic in a Rhine floodplain soil in Germany

Markus Rolf, Martin G. J. Löder, Hannes Laermanns, Lukas Kienzler, Florian Steininger, Julia Möller, Christian Laforsch, and Christina Bogner

The Rhine River flows through six European countries and is in exchange with diverse land use forms and human activities that potentially release microplastics (MPs). The Rhine interacts permanently with its surrounding banks and floodplains by changing water-levels. Several studies have documented the presence of MPs in the Rhine along its course as well as in its tributaries. However, the spatial distribution of MPs due to certain flood events in alluvial floodplains remains widely unclear. The knowledge about the amount and distribution of MPs and on their potential entry pathways into Rhine floodplains is essentially important for an ecological risk assessment. In this study, we analysed the amount and distribution of MPs in a floodplain soil in the nature reserve Merkenich-Langel, in the northern periphery of Cologne (Germany). We hypothesize that MPs are transported by the Rhine and are deposited at the site during flood events. For spatial analysis we used the MIKE software (DHI A/S, Hørsholm Denmark) merged with a digital terrain model of the study site to analyse past flood events and their potential deposition of MP. We chose three sampling transects located within the past flooded area each with three sampling spots with increasing distance and elevation to the river. Samples were taken from two different soil depths (0–5 cm and 5–20 cm) and the samples of the three sampling spots and same depth were combined to one mixed soil sample per transect. MP concentrations were analysed via ATR-FTIR and µ-FPA-FTIR spectroscopy after density separation and enzymatic-oxidative purification. We found an increase of MP concentration per kg of dry soil in the depth 5–20 cm with increasing distance to the river ranging from 25.612 particles/kg to 85.076 particles/kg. The results of MP concentration in 0–5 cm topsoil layer will be compared to the concentration in the soil depth of 5–20 cm. We correlate these results to the frequency of flood events.

How to cite: Rolf, M., Löder, M. G. J., Laermanns, H., Kienzler, L., Steininger, F., Möller, J., Laforsch, C., and Bogner, C.: Spatial analysis of riverine microplastic in a Rhine floodplain soil in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2383, 2021.

EGU21-323 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

The transport of microplastic on agriculture soils via soil erosion

Raphael Rehm, Tabea Zeyer, and Peter Fiener

Agricultural soils play a key role as sink of microplastic (MP) coming from different sources, especially via the application of sewage sludge, compost, plastic mulch films, and tire ware. However, the effectiveness of this sink might be substantially reduced in areas subjected to water erosion. The aim of this study is to determine the transport behavior of MP during water erosion events on arable land. More specifically it is analyzed if MP is preferentially transported or behaves more conservative as attached to soil minerals and/or encapsulated in soil aggregates. A series of rainfall simulations were performed over 1.5 years on two plots at two test sites representing different intensively used soils (silty loam and loamy sand) in Southern Germany. The plots (4.5 m x 1.6 m) were spiked with microplastic (high density polyethylene) consisting of two different size fractions, fine MP (MPf, 53-100 μm) and coarse MP (MPc, 250-300 μm) incorporated into the topsoil (< 10 cm). The results clearly underline the selective nature of MP erosion leading to an enrichment ratio of MP in the eroded sediments of the loamy sand plot of 3.82 to 7.86, compared to an enrichment ratio from the silty loam plots of 1.41 to 5.29. Interestingly, there was no significant difference in enrichment ratios between MPf and MPc. Over time, an increasing connection between MP and soil particles could be observed. During the first rainfall simulation only 12% (MPc) and 34-49% (MPf) of the eroded plastic particles were connected to mineral particles or soil aggregates, while during the last simulation 1.5 years later about 31-47% (MPc) and 57-67% (MPf) of the eroded particles were bond to the soil matrix. Overall, our results indicate a strong dependency of the erosion transport behavior of MP depending on soil characteristics and time since application, while surprisingly we found little effect of MP size. 

How to cite: Rehm, R., Zeyer, T., and Fiener, P.: The transport of microplastic on agriculture soils via soil erosion, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-323, 2021.

EGU21-4028 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Microplastics in Lake Onego sediments: occurrence and accumulation patterns.

Mikhail Zobkov, Natalia Belkina, Vladimir Kovalevski, Maria Zobkova, Tatiana Efremova, and Natalia Galakhina

Lake Onego is the second largest lake in Europe. Sediment samples (23) were collected in different regions of the lake. Microplastics (MPs) were extracted from sediments with heavy liquid, oxidized and its abundance was determined using a microscope with a magnification of 40x. The extraction efficiency and the level of external contamination were evaluated, the results were blank-corrected. The anthropogenic origin of randomly selected MPs items was confirmed by Raman spectroscopy. MPs were detected in all samples. Maximum MPs abundances in sediments were observed in areas associated with the mouth of the second largest tributary of the lake – river Shuya and Petrozavodsk Bay (2244 ± 1901 pcs/kg DW; n= 6, p = 0.95), the open part of the lake (2356 ± 1689; n = 5, p = 0.95) and in Kizhi National Park (3413 ± 2005; n = 4, p = 0.95). In mean MPs abundance in Lake Onego was 2141±1144; n=22; p = 0.95).   Fibers dominated in most of the samples (64±14%; n=22; p = 0.95). It was established, that fibers accumulate in sediments together with medium silt fraction (0.01-0.05 mm). MPs abundance was extremely high in Kondopoga bay (217 000 pcs/kg DW) and was mainly represented by microcapsules, possibly due to impact of the wastewaters of the Pulp and Paper mill plant at this site. In mean, MPs abundance in Lake Onego sediments was at least two times higher, than was previously established in Baltic Sea with similar methodology. Further comprehensive assessment of MPs contamination rates and forecasting consequences of this contamination to ecosystem is an urgent need in current research.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant number 19-17-00035.

How to cite: Zobkov, M., Belkina, N., Kovalevski, V., Zobkova, M., Efremova, T., and Galakhina, N.: Microplastics in Lake Onego sediments: occurrence and accumulation patterns., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4028, 2021.

EGU21-2686 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Microplastic in fluvial environments - an example of the Elbe river near Dessau-Roßlau, Germany

Jonas Kruse, Hannes Laermanns, Friederike Stock, Corinna Foeldi, Dirk Schaefer, Christian Scherer, and Christina Bogner

Accumulation of microplastics (MPs) in aquatic environments is an issue of emerging concern. After research initially focused on marine systems, more and more studies have been published investigating the abundance of MPs in freshwater environments in recent years.

The objective of our research is to examine, whether the Mulde river represents an input pathway for MP particles to the Elbe discharge system. Our hypothesis is that the chemical industries located in the catchment area of the Mulde act as a discharge source of primary MPs which are subsequently transported downstream towards the Elbe. Accordingly, there should be more (primary) MPs just downstream of the river mouth, compared to upstream. Therefore, 2 sediment samples and 18 water samples from the Elbe river upstream and downstream the Mulde confluence were taken and analysed on their MP contents.

To extract MPs, sample preparation requires various steps including drying, size-fractionation, reduction of organic matter and density separation. The gained fractions are then filtered through glass microfibres paper using a vacuum pump. The dried filters are photographed and examined for MPs under a digital microscope. Representative particles are picked and measured. Finally, we determine their polymer type by pyrolysis or µFTIR.

A key result is that both, sediment and water samples, show a substantial increase in primary MPs (especially spheres) just downstream the mouth of the Mulde. Regarding the sampling technique of water samples, we observe differences in the amount and shape of MP particles between filter cascades and filter nets.

How to cite: Kruse, J., Laermanns, H., Stock, F., Foeldi, C., Schaefer, D., Scherer, C., and Bogner, C.: Microplastic in fluvial environments - an example of the Elbe river near Dessau-Roßlau, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2686, 2021.

EGU21-4766 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Different Surface Charged Plastic Particles Have Different Cotransport Behaviors with Kaolinite Particles in Porous Media

Meng Li, Lei He, Xiangwei Zhang, Haifeng Rong, and Meiping Tong

The wide utilization of plastic related products leads to the ubiquitous presence of plastic particles in natural environments. Plastic particles could interact with kaolinite (one type of typical clay particles abundant in environment) and form plastic-kaolinite heteroaggregates. The fate and transport of both plastic particles and kaolinite particles thus might be altered. The cotransport and deposition behaviors of micron-sized plastic particles (MPs) with different surface charge (both negative and positive surface charge) with kaolinite in porous media in both 5 and 25 mM NaCl solutions were investigated in present study. Both types of MPs (negatively charged carboxylate-modified MPs (CMPs) and positively charged amine-modified MPs (AMPs)) formed heteroaggregates with kaolinite particles under both solution conditions examined, however, CMPs and AMPs exhibited different cotransport behaviors with kaolinite. Specifically, the transport of both CMPs and kaolinite was increased under both ionic strength conditions when kaolinite and CMPs were copresent in suspensions. While, when kaolinite and positively charged AMPs were copresent in suspensions, negligible transport of both kaolinite and AMPs were observed under examined salt solution conditions. The competition deposition sites by kaolinite (the portion suspending in solution) with CMPs-kaolinite heteroaggregates led to the increased transport both CMPs and kaolinite when both types of colloids were copresent. In contrast, the formation of larger sized AMPs-kaolinite heteroaggregates with surface charge heterogeneity led to the negligible transport of both kaolinite and AMPs when they were copresent in suspensions. The results of this study show that when plastic particles and kaolinite particles are copresent in natural environments, their interaction with each other will affect their transport behaviors in porous media. The alteration in the transport of MPs or kaolinite (either increased or decreased transport) is highly correlated with the surface charge of MPs.

How to cite: Li, M., He, L., Zhang, X., Rong, H., and Tong, M.: Different Surface Charged Plastic Particles Have Different Cotransport Behaviors with Kaolinite Particles in Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4766, 2021.

EGU21-4438 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8

Assessment of the sorption capacity of PET microparticles in natural water with respect to metals

Natalia Kulik and Natalia Efremenko

Contamination of the World Oceans with microplastics (MPs) is one of the most discussed environmental problems of the last decade. MPs are able to accumulate on their surface pollutants present in water in very low concentrations. Concentrations of pollutants, such as metals, can reach values that exceed the natural background in water bodies.Thus, MPs can act as a secondary source of contamination of water bodies with metals.The sorption capacity of artificially grinded and aged in the natural environment microparticles of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) with respect to metals in the natural water of Lake Onego was assessed in laboratory conditions.The Total Content method was used to characterize the sorption process and to obtain the dependence of the concentration of a substance in the stationary phase on its concentration in the mobile phase (experimental sorption isotherms were obtained). Subsequent mathematical processing of the experimentally obtained metal sorption isotherms on PET for Mn, Ni, Cu, Cd, and Pb allowed us to determine the monolayer capacities, adsorption equilibrium constants, and adsorption values at the equilibrium adsorbate concentration for each of the studied metals. This information is valuable to assess the role of MPs in metals transport in water bodies. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant number 19-17-00035.

How to cite: Kulik, N. and Efremenko, N.: Assessment of the sorption capacity of PET microparticles in natural water with respect to metals, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4438, 2021.

EGU21-2033 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.8 | Highlight

Method and challenges of tracing soil-surface transport of microplastic particles with an advanced-imaging sCMOS camera

Hannes Laermanns, David Haas, Marcel Klee, Florian Steininger, Martin Löder, and Christina Bogner

Although the impact of microplastic particles (MPs) in different ecosystems has recently become subject of numerous studies, the knowledge of spatial distribution and transport of MP in terrestrial environments is still limited. While first studies in this field have focused on the abundance of MPs in soils and its vertical distribution, only little is known about the mechanisms of MP transport on the surfaces of sediments and soils. To analyse the interaction between soil surface roughness, inclination and irrigation rate, we investigate MP surface transport mechanisms and patterns by using images of an advanced scientific complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (sCMOS) high-resolution camera. For this study an experimental set-up including a flume box with several surfaces and an artificial irrigation system was used. In this setup we traced pathways of fluorescent amorphously shaped polystyrene (PS) and Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) particles on surfaces of different roughnesses and inclination. Subsequently, time series of the images were analyzed by combining R and Python packages was. This included the calculation of MP particle size, estimation of pathways and path lengths.  Our first results suggest a large influence of the water film thickness and the microrelief of the studied surfaces leading to the creation of preferential pathways for the MP particles.

How to cite: Laermanns, H., Haas, D., Klee, M., Steininger, F., Löder, M., and Bogner, C.: Method and challenges of tracing soil-surface transport of microplastic particles with an advanced-imaging sCMOS camera, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2033, 2021.

HS8.1.9 – Thermal energy applications and associated processes in porous and fractured aquifers

EGU21-4104 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

Actively heated fiber optics based thermal response test

Kai Gu, Bo Zhang, Bin Shi, Chun Liu, Peter Bayer, and Zhuang Wei

In the pursuit of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change, shallow geothermal energy has been widely recognized as a type of clean energy with great potential. Accurate estimation of thermal ground properties is needed to optimally apply shallow geothermal energy technologies, which are of growing importance for the heating and cooling sector. A special challenge is posed by the often significant heterogeneity and variability of the geological media at a site.

As an innovative investigation method, we focus on the actively heated fiber optics-based thermal response test (ATRT) and its application in a borehole in Changzhou, China. A copper mesh heated optical cable (CMHC), which both serves as a heating source and a temperature sensing cable, was applied in the borehole. By inducing the electric current to the cable at a relatively low power of 26 W/m, the in-situ heating process was recorded at high depth resolution. This information serves to infer the thermal conductivity distribution along the borehole. The presented field experience reveals that the temperature rise in the early phase of the test should not be used due to initial heat accumulation caused by the outer jacket of the CMHC. The comparison of these results with those of a conventional thermal response test (TRT) and a distributed thermal response test (DTRT) in the same borehole confirmed that the ATRT result is reliable (with a difference less than 5% and 1%, respectively). Most importantly, this novel method affords much less energy and testing time.

Additionally, to estimate the uncertainty and limits associated with the method, a 2D axisymmetric numerical model based on COMSOL Multiphysics® has been developed. The results indicate that an accurate calculated thermal conductivity requires heating duration to be in the range of 90~400 min considering test efficiency and cost. Our study promotes ATRT as an advanced geothermal field investigation method and it also extends the applicability of the thermal response test as a downhole tool for measurement of soil hydraulic properties.

How to cite: Gu, K., Zhang, B., Shi, B., Liu, C., Bayer, P., and Wei, Z.: Actively heated fiber optics based thermal response test, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4104, 2021.

EGU21-15683 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

An experimentally-validated framework for interpreting active-DTS measurements conducted in fully saturated porous media

Nataline Simon, Olivier Bour, Nicolas Lavenant, Gilles Porel, Benoît Nauleau, Behzad Pouladi, Laurent Longuevergne, and Alain Crave

            Our ability to characterize aquifers, predict contaminant transport and understand biogeochemical reactions occurring in the subsurface directly depends on our ability of characterizing the distribution of groundwater flow. In this context, recently-developed active-Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) experiments are particularly promising, offering the possibility to characterize groundwater flows resulting from heterogeneous flow fields. Here, based on theoretical developments and numerical simulations, we propose a general framework for estimating active-DTS measurements, which can be easily applied and takes into account the spatial distribution of the thermal conductivities of sediments.

            Two independent methods for interpreting active-DTS experiments are proposed to estimate both the porous media thermal conductivities and the groundwater fluxes in sediments. These methods rely on the interpretation of the temperature increase measured along a single heated fiber optic (FO) cable and consider heat transfer processes occurring both through the FO cable itself and through the porous media. In order to validate these interpretation methods with independent experimental data, active-DTS measurements were collected under different flow-conditions during laboratory tests in a sandbox. First, the combination of a numerical model with laboratory experiments allowed improving the understanding of the thermal processes controlling the temperature increase. Then, the two complementary and independent interpretation methods providing an estimate of both the thermal conductivity and the groundwater flux were fully validated and the excellent accuracy of groundwater flux estimates (< 5%) was demonstrated.

            Our results suggest that active-DTS experiments allow investigating groundwater fluxes over a large range spanning 1x10-6 to 5x10-2 m/s, depending on the duration of the experiment. The active-DTS method could thus be potentially applied to a very wide range of flow systems since groundwater fluxes can be investigated over more than three orders of magnitude. In the field, the reliable and direct estimation of the distribution of fluxes could replace the measurement of hydraulic conductivity, whose distribution and variability still remains difficult and time consuming to evaluate.

How to cite: Simon, N., Bour, O., Lavenant, N., Porel, G., Nauleau, B., Pouladi, B., Longuevergne, L., and Crave, A.: An experimentally-validated framework for interpreting active-DTS measurements conducted in fully saturated porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15683, 2021.

Borehole thermal energy storage is a well-established technology for seasonal geological heat storage, where arrays of borehole heat exchangers (BHE) are installed in low permeability geological media dominated by conductive heat transfer. Increasing storage temperatures would increase storage capacities and rates and would thus allow for a better inclusion of BTES in the energy system. When using storage temperatures of up 90°C, however, highly permeable zones or intermediate layers may allow for thermally induced fluid migration and convective heat transport in the storage medium, which may increase heat losses from the storage and thus limit the thermal performance of the BTES system. Therefore, we present results from experimental work and subsequent numerical modelling aimed at quantifying thermally induced convection for a lab-scale BHE in a water saturated porous medium for a temperature range of 20°C to 70°C.

The experimental heat storage unit consists of a fully water saturated coarse sand within a cylindrical polypropylene barrel of 1.23 m height and 0.6 m radius and a vertical coaxial BHE, which is grouted by a thermally enhanced cement. The barrel is cooled from the outside using ventilators and laboratory air. A grid of 68 thermocouples is emplaced in the storage medium for monitoring the temperature distribution. For the stationary experiment, heat is transferred to the storage unit using a supply temperature of 70°C for 6 days until a steady state temperature distribution is achieved, followed by 3 days of heat recovery. The dynamic experiment begins with 3 days of heating with 70°C followed by 6 cycles of alternating heating at 70°C and cooling at approximately 18°C for 12 hours each.

The stationary experiment reveals a vertical temperature stratification, with temperatures increasing up to 48°C towards the top of the porous medium, as well as a horizontal temperature gradient along the top of the sand, while the lower part of the barrel and the outer wall remain at the laboratory temperature of approximately 18°C. This temperature distribution has stabilized after about 90 hours and represents a clear tilted thermal front, suggesting a significant contribution of induced thermal convection to the overall heat transport. The cyclic experiment shows a decrease of storage temperatures relative to the stationary experiment, with temperatures near to the BHE at the top of the porous lower by 2.5°C and 4.75°C, respectively, because the heating phase is not long enough to reach the stationary temperature distribution. This lower horizontal temperature gradient indicates a weakened thermal convection, however the thermal stratification is conserved. This shows that even under the cyclic loading conditions thermal convection may impair high temperature BTES operation and efficiency.

Numerical process simulation of coupled flow and heat transport accounting for variable density and the experimental boundary conditions reproduces the spatial and temporal temperature distribution of both experiments with good accuracy. This shows that induced thermal is causing the observed temperature distributions.

How to cite: Djotsa Nguimeya Ngninjio, V., Bo, W., Beyer, C., and Bauer, S.: Experimental and numerical investigation of thermal convection in a water saturated porous medium induced by heat exchangers in high temperature borehole thermal energy storage, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8071, 2021.

EGU21-5093 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

The impact of storage conditions on heat losses of HT-ATES systems

Stijn Beernink, Martin Bloemendal, and Niels Hartog

Heating and cooling is responsible for about 50% of the European total energy use. Therefore, renewable sources of heat are needed to reduce GHG emissions (e.g. solar, geothermal, waste-heat). Due to a temporal and spatial mismatch between availability and demand of heat, large scale heat storage facilities are needed. High Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) systems are one of the cheapest and most adequate ways to store large amounts of sensible heat. Regular/Low-T ATES systems are considered a proven technology with currently more than 3 000 systems operable world-wide. However, at higher storage temperatures (e.g. 40-100 °C) temperature dependent water properties (density, viscosity) more strongly affect physical processes, resulting in higher and unpredictable heat losses. While first applications and research on this subject started more than 50 years ago, many uncertainties still remain. In this research we study the (hydrogeological) storage conditions that affect the heat losses of HT-ATES systems. Numerical simulations of a wide range of storage conditions, are done to obtain generic insights in the performance of HT-ATES systems. These insights allow to identify which heat transport processes dominate in contribution to heat losses. Results show that conduction always contributes to heat losses for HT-ATES systems and relate to geometric storage conditions. While buoyancy flow (free convection) may also contribute considerable to heat losses under specific conditions.

How to cite: Beernink, S., Bloemendal, M., and Hartog, N.: The impact of storage conditions on heat losses of HT-ATES systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5093, 2021.

EGU21-8302 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

Numerical investigation of induced thermal impacts from high-temperature thermal energy storage in porous aquifers

Bo Wang, Jens-Olaf Delfs, Christof Beyer, and Sebastian Bauer

High-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (HT-ATES) in the geological subsurface will affect the temperature distribution in and close to the storage site, with potential impacts on groundwater flow and biogeochemistry. Quantification of the subsurface space affected by a HT-ATES operation is thus required as one basis for urban subsurface space planning, which would allow to address potential competitive and conflicting uses of the urban subsurface. Therefore, this study shows a quantitative evaluation of induced thermal impacts and subsurface space required for a synthetic ATES operated at varying temperature levels.

A hypothetic seasonal HT-ATES operation is simulated using the coupled groundwater flow and heat transport code OpenGeoSys. A well doublet system consisting of fully screened “warm” and “cold” wells 500 m apart is used for the storage operation. A sandy aquifer typical for the North German Basin at a depth of 110 m and with a thickness of 20 m in between two confining impermeable layers is used as storage formation. Seasonal cyclic storage is simulated for 20 years, assuming charging and discharging for six months each. During charging, water with the aquifer background temperature of 13°C is extracted at the "cold" well, heated to 70°C and reinjected at the “warm” well using a pumping rate of 30 m³/h. During discharging, the stored hot water is retrieved at the "warm" well using the same pumping rate and reinjected at the “cold” well after heat extraction at aquifer background temperature.

The simulation results show that during a single storage cycle using a storage temperature of 70°C 7.51 GWh of thermal energy is injected, of which 4.79 GWh can be retrieved. This corresponds to a thermal recovery factor of 63.8% and thus an effective storage capacity of 0.43 kWh/m3/K can be deduced in relation to the heat capacity of the storage medium. For storage temperatures of 18°C, 30°C and 50°C, the effective storage capacity is 0.56 kWh/m3/K, 0.55 kWh/m3/K and 0.49 kWh/m3/K, respectively. By delineating the subsurface volume with a temperature increase larger than 1°C, the subsurface space used for and affected by the storage operation at the storage temperature of 70 °C is determined to be 10.56 million m³. In relation to the retrieved thermal energy, a subsurface volume of 2.2 m3 is thus required to retrieve one kWh of heat energy at 70 °C injection temperature. At lower temperatures of 18°C, 30°C and 50°C, the subsurface space required is 1.77 m3/kWh, 1.54 m3/kWh and 1.76 m3/kWh, respectively. The lower effective storage capacity and the relatively larger required space, which correspond to a lower thermal recovery factor, are caused by induced thermal convection and higher heat losses by conduction at higher temperatures.

How to cite: Wang, B., Delfs, J.-O., Beyer, C., and Bauer, S.: Numerical investigation of induced thermal impacts from high-temperature thermal energy storage in porous aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8302, 2021.

EGU21-9823 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

A High Temperature Heat Injection Test – Numerical Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis

Stefan Heldt, Bo Wang, and Sebastian Bauer

With the transition of the heating sector towards renewable energy sources technologies are needed to compensate for the seasonal mismatch between heat supply and demand. Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) is considered a promising candidate for that purpose. Especially high temperature ATES (HT-ATES) with temperatures up to 90 °C has the advantage of higher storage capacities and allows for the direct use of the stored heat without intermediate heat pumps. In order to improve the understanding of processes induced by HT-ATES and to validate numerical tools for the prediction of storage capacities, storage rates as well as thermal impacts, a heat injection field test with an injection temperature of 75 °C was conducted, densely monitored and numerically simulated. This work presents a sensitivity analysis of the governing processes and parameters, from which the parameters on which the simulation results are most dependent are derived and thus identified for future site characterization and monitoring studies.

The heat injection test took place at a shallow aquifer with a low natural groundwater flow velocity of 0.07 m/d. Hot water was injected at a borehole using flow rates of 14 l/min for 4.5 days and the resulting thermal plume was monitored by a dense arrangement of thermocouples. Previous to the experiment, the field site was thoroughly investigated for the thermal and hydraulic parameters by standard hydrogeological methods, such as pumping tests, hydraulic head measurements, Hydraulic Profiling Tool (HTP) employment, liner sampling and laboratory measurements.  A coupled heat transport and fluid flow model was set up and the heat injection test was simulated using high resolution numerical modelling of the coupled thermo-hydraulic processes using the OpenGeoSys (OGS) simulation code.

The comparison of measured and simulated temperature breakthrough curves showed a good correspondence, indicating the capability of the model to predict the general thermal behaviour of the heat injection test. The accuracy was higher for larger distances to the injection well and at the longer time scale, while the largest deviations occurred close to the injection well and shortly after the injection. The model was then used to estimate the sensitivity of the simulated temperature distribution on thermal and hydraulic aquifer parameters, which were varied according to the span of measurements. The thermal plume development is most sensitive on the hydraulic conductivity, since this parameter influences the intensity of buoyancy driven flow and was measured in the large range 3.00E-05 to 7.15 E-04 m/s. The dispersivity and the anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity effect the same process and show a significant impact on the result as well, together with the thermal conductivity. The sensitivity of the simulated temperature distribution on the groundwater flow velocity and the specific heat capacity is a little lower compared to the previously mentioned parameters, while the result is insensitive to the specific storage. It is shown, that a heat injection test in combination with numerical simulations is suitable for identifying parameter sensitivities also on small scales, thus showing the investigation needs for HT-ATES projects.

How to cite: Heldt, S., Wang, B., and Bauer, S.: A High Temperature Heat Injection Test – Numerical Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9823, 2021.

EGU21-3481 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9 | Highlight

Optimizing ATES performance by increasing warm well temperature and harvesting waste/solar heat

Martin Bloemendal, Stijn Beernink, Alex Hockin, Nikki van Bel, and Niels Hartog

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) systems combined with a heat pump stores and thereby reduces energy use for space heating and cooling of buildings. In most countries, the temperature of the stored heat is limited to maximum 25-30°C for such systems. However, when heat is available at higher temperatures (e.g. waste heat, solar heat), it is more efficient to store higher temperatures because that improves heat pump performance or may even makes it abundant. As a result there is a large potential for additional energy savings by transforming ‘regular’ low-temperature ATES systems to a HT-ATES. Such a transformation is tested for a greenhouse in the Netherlands. This greenhouse has a LT-ATES system operational since 2012. From 2015 onwards the storage temperature increased and currently heat is stored in the warm well at temperatures up to 40°C. In this HT-ATES transformation pilot, water quality parameters are closely monitored as well as temperature distribution in the subsurface (using DTS). Together with the operators, the results from the ATES monitoring are used to continuously improve system performance. Numerical groundwater and heat flow simulations of actual and expected well pumping data are used to evaluate how well operation can be optimized. Results show that due to the extra heat harvested and higher warm well temperature CO2 emissions are reduced by 70%, due to larger contribution of heat delivery by the ATES and a more efficient heat pump due to the higher warm well temperature. Groundwater infiltration temperature peaks are up to 40°C during the hottest summer days, while the average warm well temperatures increased mildly by 6°C to about 21°C. Groundwater monitoring results therefore only showed limited water quality changes. The changes that were identified are predominantly contributed to mixing processes, as the ATES system is installed in 2 different aquifers. 

How to cite: Bloemendal, M., Beernink, S., Hockin, A., van Bel, N., and Hartog, N.: Optimizing ATES performance by increasing warm well temperature and harvesting waste/solar heat, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3481, 2021.

EGU21-6601 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

Numerical investigation of fracture aperture heterogeneity on performance of geothermal reservoir in EGS

Dejian Zhou, Alexandru Tatomir, and Martin Sauter

In the attempt to reduce the CO2 emissions and dependence on fossil fuels geothermal energy started to receive increased scientific interest. With the development of the Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) technology, extensive geothermal energy applications have become feasible. However, the geothermal reservoirs are usually situated several kilometers below the ground whichmeans the experiments within the geothermal reservoir are difficult to be implemented. Therefore, the models capable of simulating thermohydraulic (TH) effects were the common approaches to analyzing geothermal reservoir efficiency. To simulate fluid migration and heat propagation within the fractured geothermal reservoir in EGS, discrete fracture models (DFMs) of the TH processes  were widely used. However, the heterogeneity of the fracture apertures is most of the times ignored in these models. In this work, considering the aperture heterogeneity, a DFM of the TH processes was established. It is assumed the apertures follow a normal distribution. The outlet temperature and energy production rate are employed to evaluate the efficiency of the geothermal reservoir. The results of the simulation show that the heterogeneity of the aperture strongly affects the performance of the geothermal reservoir. At the end of simulation, the variation in outlet temperature decreased by approximately 20% and the average produced energy had a reduction of over 26%. Furthermore, the average produced energy has an inversely proportional relationship with the aperture heterogeneity. Finally, several statistical realizations of the fracture network were generated to test and verify if the influence from aperture heterogeneity are generally valid. 

How to cite: Zhou, D., Tatomir, A., and Sauter, M.: Numerical investigation of fracture aperture heterogeneity on performance of geothermal reservoir in EGS, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6601, 2021.

EGU21-9842 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

Life cycle assessment of geothermal power generation in the Southern German Molasse Basin – The binary plant Kirchstockach

Christoph Bott, Kathrin Menberg, Florian Heberle, Dieter Brüggemann, and Peter Bayer

Under geologically beneficial conditions, geothermal facilities are often rated as efficient, as well as clean and climate-neutral energy technologies. In fact, for supporting a good environmental performance of a technology, the total environmental impact caused by all associated material and energy consumption needs to be examined. Life cycle assessment (LCA) according to ISO standards 14040 and 14044 considers not only operation, but also the construction and decommissioning phases while addressing different environmental impact categories. Therefore, LCA-based environmental evaluation has been proposed in several previous studies. A review of the state-of the art in this field shows that some critical system parameters are often disregarded. Furthermore, many existing studies are solely based on theoretical datasets without validation to specific application cases.

Our work addresses these two shortcomings by performing a comprehensive LCA using operational data of the binary, two-stage ORC, Kirchstockach power plant in the Southern German Molasse Basin. Given its technical specifications, a representative base case scenario provides an excellent reference for benchmarking against other power plants. Environmental impacts of different technical modifications are assessed in terms of global warming potential, non-renewable energy consumption, aquatic acidification and eutrophication. Using scenario analyses, we consider the influence of emerging key factors, such as refrigerant leakage, focusing on various system components. Firstly, we identify reinforcing effects due to interrelationships between these system parameters, e.g. when using environmentally friendly ORC refrigerants. Secondly, uncertainty analyses provide insights into potential measures for ecological system improvements by using different materials and methods in the construction and operation phases. For comparison and benchmarking purposes, conventional power generation resources and comparable studies in the field of binary geothermal systems, enhanced geothermal systems, and flash systems are included. Besides the general positive ranking of the Kirchstockach power plant environmental performance, our multi-objective study ultimately reveals not only key performance factors, but it also underlines the overall relevance of case studies to validate generic and global assumptions.

How to cite: Bott, C., Menberg, K., Heberle, F., Brüggemann, D., and Bayer, P.: Life cycle assessment of geothermal power generation in the Southern German Molasse Basin – The binary plant Kirchstockach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9842, 2021.

EGU21-5456 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

The effect of filter cake deposition on the hydraulic conductivity of boreholes

Rein Nijhof, Jan van Lopik, and Martin Bloemendal

Efficient construction and operation of borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) are essential in its contribution to the energy transition. In practice, implementation of BHE at larger scale requires low construction costs and high production rates. This requires small diameter drillings to reduce drilling and backfilling material costs, in which achieving a proper backfilling is a challenge. At present, there is an urgent need to improve the available techniques with more effectively and efficiently backfill methods for BHEs. In current Dutch practice, sealing (to prevent short-circuit flow between penetrated aquifers) is achieved by using either clay or grouts as backfilling materials, both have their pro’s and con’s. In optimisation of applying backfilling materials and methods, the filter cake, formed during the drilling procedure, also has a sealing capacity and is overlooked in addressing the sealing of the borehole.

 

In this study the effect of filter cake formation on sealing capacity in unconsolidated sediments is quantified. Filter cake formation in unconsolidated porous formations (aquifers) is a complex process, which is affected by pressure differences between the borehole and the aquifer, aquifer characteristics (e.g. grain size distribution, porosity and permeability) and drilling mud/fluid properties.

A laboratory configuration is designed to stimulate different scenarios during the construction of a BHE. Consequently, the effectiveness, in terms of hydraulic conductivity, of the formed filter cake is determined by falling head tests.

Uniform aquifers with the smallest grain size tested (D50 = 0.22 mm) show a two order of magnitude reduction in hydraulic conductivity, as a direct result of filter cake formation. In contrast, filter cake formation is absent in uniform more coarse sands (D50 ≥ 0.65 mm). This demonstrates that filter cake deposition is highly variable with the grain size of the aquifer penetrated. Moreover, the experiments performed indicate that the deposition of a filter cake is not limited by additive concentrations in the drilling fluid or the duration of drilling fluid exposure to the formation.

This preliminary study creates the foundation for further research, since the experiments demonstrate the potential of filter cakes to significantly contribute to the sealing capacity within a borehole.

How to cite: Nijhof, R., van Lopik, J., and Bloemendal, M.: The effect of filter cake deposition on the hydraulic conductivity of boreholes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5456, 2021.

EGU21-4644 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9 | Highlight

Harmonized web-based information systems for shallow geothermal energy use in Austria

Cornelia Steiner, Gregor Goetzl, Martin Fuchsluger, and Alexander Rehbogen

Neither regional development, construction projects nor infrastructure development – structural planning does not fully consider energy supply in Austria (yet). The project “Spatial Energy Planning for Heat Transition” is part of the research initiative “Green Energy Lab”, which has a project life-time from June 2018 to May 2021. It aims to provide a sound basis for the integration of heat in private and public planning processes and for the implementation of the energy infrastructure of the future together with energy providers.

Three Austrian states (Vienna, Styria and Salzburg), their capital cities and pilot-municipalities of all scales work together to provide all information necessary for the implementation of spatial heat-planning – as role model for Austria and other European countries. The GIS-based web-tool “heat-atlas” will provide this harmonized data and serve an information platform for project developers as well as for regional planning, fostering a sustainable use of all available sustainable energy resources and infrastructures to their full extent. The system of the information platform is arbitrarily scalable and is aimed to be expanded to other interested regions of Austria on demand.

One part of this “heat-atlas” is about shallow geothermal energy and covers vertical closed loop and open loop systems. The Geological Survey of Austria developed new methods to estimate capacity and energy resources as well as to show possible limitations of shallow geothermal energy use on property level. The resource calculations combine location-specific parameters such as thermal conductivity, underground temperature and groundwater availability with system-specific parameters such as mode of operation, operational hours, geometry and threshold values demanded by official regulations.

The method provides not only information about the maximum amount of energy available on the property, but also about the cover ratio of the demand. So called level-1 maps show the resources for standardized well-doublets and borehole heat exchangers independently of the property. The calculations for level-2 maps consider site-specific properties such as heating and cooling demand, operational hours and size of the property. This enables the estimation of the overall energy resources and the cover ratio of the property.

The results are shown as maps and as location specific query, which gives a concise summary of all relevant information for one location in form of an automatically generated report. More information about the project is available at http://www.waermeplanung.at/.

How to cite: Steiner, C., Goetzl, G., Fuchsluger, M., and Rehbogen, A.: Harmonized web-based information systems for shallow geothermal energy use in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4644, 2021.

In urban areas where the shallow subsurface is used for thermal energy storage (TES), interactions between the introduced heat and groundwater pollution caused by toxic organic contaminants can be expected. Temperature elevations may affect the transfer of these volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the groundwater to the unsaturated zone, creating a redistribution or release of the contaminants in/from the subsurface environment. Such effects are particularly important considering the intersection of the unsaturated zone with the land surface and the remediation capacity of polluted aquifers. In this work, a non-isothermal multi-component two-phase flow model was developed to investigate the thermally induced volatilization and migration of the VOCs in contaminated aquifers. The numerical model, which is implemented in the open source framework OpenGeoSys-6, is able to simulate temperature-dependent mass and heat transfer processes in partially-saturated soils while allowing for phase change. Verification of the model against various benchmark problems and experimental data showed good accuracy. Simulation results revealed that a temperature-driven migration of dissolved trichloroethylene (TCE) from the groundwater to the drier regions of the unsaturated zone can be observed in general. A temperature increase of 20 K around the borehole led to a maximum decline of the total TCE concentration by 63% assuming zero TCE concentration at the soil surface. In addition, the TCE concentration distribution varied considerably with the depth-dependent water saturation. Further investigations were carried out to study the effects of different parameters, e.g. groundwater velocity, contaminant type and boundary conditions. Based on our analysis, the planning of subsurface TES systems can be optimized to account for the possible interactions with pre-existing groundwater contamination.

References:

Kolditz, O., Bauer, S., Bilke, L., Böttcher, N., Delfs, J. O., Fischer, T., ... & Zehner, B. (2012). OpenGeoSys: an open-source initiative for numerical simulation of thermo-hydro-mechanical/chemical (THM/C) processes in porous media. Environmental Earth Sciences67(2), 589-599.

How to cite: Meng, B., Beyer, C., Kolditz, O., and Shao, H.: Enhanced volatilization and redistribution of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in contaminated aquifers subject to borehole thermal energy storage:  Model development and applications, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7689, 2021.

EGU21-10001 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.9

Multi-fidelity approach to Bayesian parameter estimation in subsurface heat and fluid transport models 

Kathrin Menberg, Asal Bidarmaghz, Alastair Gregory, Ruchi Choudhary, and Mark Girolami

The increased use of the urban subsurface for multiple purposes, such as anthropogenic infrastructures and geothermal energy applications, leads to an urgent need for large-scale sophisticated modelling approaches for coupled mass and heat transfer. However, such models are subject to large uncertainties in model parameters, the physical model itself and in available measured data, which is often rare. Thus, the robustness and reliability of the computer model and its outcomes largely depend on successful parameter estimation and model calibration, which are often hampered by the computational burden of large-scale coupled models.

To tackle this problem, we present a novel Bayesian approach for parameter estimation, which allows to account for different sources of uncertainty, is capable of dealing with sparse field data and makes optimal use of the output data from computationally expensive numerical model runs. This is achieved by combining output data from different models that represent the same physical problem, but at different levels of fidelity, e.g. reflected by different spatial resolution, i.e. different model discretization. Our framework combines information from a few parametric model outputs from a physically accurate, but expensive, high-fidelity computer model, with a larger number of evaluations from a less expensive and less accurate low-fidelity model. This enables us to include accurate information about the model output at sparse points in the parameter space, as well as dense samples across the entire parameter space, albeit with a lower physical accuracy.

We first apply the multi-fidelity approach to a simple 1D analytical heat transfer model, and secondly on a semi-3D coupled mass and heat transport numerical model, and estimate the unknown model parameters. By using synthetic data generated with known parameter values, we are able to test the reliability of the new method, as well as the improved performance over a single-fidelity approach, under different framework settings. Overall, the results from the analytical and numerical model show that combining 50 runs of the low resolution model with data from only 10 runs of a higher resolution model significantly improves the posterior distribution results, both in terms of agreement with the true parameter values and the confidence interval around this value. The next steps for further testing of the method are employing real data from field measurements and adding statistical formulations for model calibration and prediction based on the inferred posterior distributions of the estimated parameters.

How to cite: Menberg, K., Bidarmaghz, A., Gregory, A., Choudhary, R., and Girolami, M.: Multi-fidelity approach to Bayesian parameter estimation in subsurface heat and fluid transport models , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10001, 2021.

Heat flow in the fore-arc, Northeast Japan shows characteristic highs and lows in the seaward and landward regions of the trench axis, respectively, compared to 50 mW/m2 that is constrained from the corresponding half-space cooling model (135 Ma). For example, the high average of 70 mW/m2 at the 150-km seaward region from the trench was observed while the low average of 30 mW/m2 at the 50-km landward region was. To explain the differences between the constraints and observations of the heat flow, previous studies suggested that the high heat flow in the seaward region results from the reactivated hydrothermal circulations in the oceanic crust of the Pacific plate along the developed fractures by the flexural bending prior to subduction. The low heat flow is thought to result from thermal blanket effect of the accretionary prism that overlies the cooled subducting slab by the hydrothermal circulations. To understand heat transfer in the landward region of the trench, a series of two-dimensional numerical models are constructed by considering hydrothermal circulations in the kinematically thickening accretionary prism that overlies the converging oceanic crust of the Pacific plate where hydrothermal circulations developed prior to subduction. The model calculations demonstrate no meaningful hydrothermal circulations when the reasonable bulk permeability of the accretionary prism(<10-14m2) is used; the thermal blanket effect significantly hinders the heat transfer, yielding only the heat flow of 10 mW/m2 in the landward region, much lower than the average of 30 mW/m2. This indicates that other mechanisms such as the expelled pore fluid by compaction of the accretionary prism play important roles in the heat transfer across the accretionary prism.

How to cite: Han, D. and Lee, C.: Roles of Hydrothermal Circulations on Heat Flow in the Fore-arc, Northeast Japan Subduction Zone, A Numerical Modeling Study., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1958, 2021.

HS8.1.10 – Hydrogeophysics: a tool for hydrology, ecology, agronomy and beyond

EGU21-644 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

The Effect of Pore Water Velocity on the Spectral Induced Polarization Signature of Porous Media

Nimrod Schwartz, Kuzma Tsukanov, and Itamar Assa

Induced polarization (IP) is increasingly applied for hydrological, environmental and agricultural purposes. Interpretation of IP data is based on understanding the relationship between the IP signature and the porous media property of interest. Mechanistic models on the IP phenomenon relay on the Poisson-Nernst-Plank equations, where diffusion and electromigration fluxes are the driving forces of charge transport, and are directly related to IP. However, to our knowledge, the impact of advection flux on IP was not investigated experimentally, and was not considered in any IP model. In this work, we measured the spectral IP (SIP) signature of porous media under varying flow conditions, in addition to developing and solving a model for SIP signature of porous media, which takes flow into consideration. The experimental and the model results demonstrate that as bulk velocity increases, polarization and relaxation time decrease. Using a numerical model, we established that fluid flow near the particle deforms the structure of the electrical double layer (EDL), accounting for the observed decrease in polarization. Using simple physical arguments, we developed a new model for the relaxation time, taking into account the impact of bulk fluid velocity. The model and the measured and synthetic data were found to be in good agreement. Overall, our results demonstrate the sensitivity of the SIP signature to fluid flow, highlighting the need for considering fluid velocity in the interpretation of the SIP signature of porous media, and opening an exciting new direction for noninvasive measurements of fluid flow at the EDL scale.     

How to cite: Schwartz, N., Tsukanov, K., and Assa, I.: The Effect of Pore Water Velocity on the Spectral Induced Polarization Signature of Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-644, 2021.

EGU21-15338 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Quantification of clay content using the transient electromagnetic and spectral induced polarization method

Lukas Aigner, Timea Katona, Hadrien Michel, Arsalan Ahmed, Thomas Hermans, and Adrián Flores Orozco

EGU21-15653 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Determining frequency dependence of carbon turnover in peat using spectral induced polarization

Timea Katona, Benjamin Gilfedder, Sven Frei, Lukas Aigner, Matthias Bücker, and Adrian Flores Orozco

Our study discusses imaging results from a spectral induced polarization (SIP) survey to identify concurring processes (such as aerobic respiration, denitrification, or sulfate- and iron reduction) in a biogeochemically active peat in a wetland located in the Lehstenbach catchment in Southeastern Germany. Terrestrial wetland ecosystems such as peatlands are a critical element in the global carbon cycle. Due to their role as natural carbon sinks and ecological importance for an array of flora and fauna, there is a growing demand to conserve and restore degraded peatlands. Biogeochemical processes occur with non-uniform reaction rates within the peat, making the environment sensitive to physical disturbances. To investigate biogeochemical processes in-situ, it is important to avoid disturbing the redox-sensitive conditions in the subsurface by bringing oxygen into anoxic areas.  Our previous study demonstrated that the induced polarization (IP) was able to identify biogeochemically active and inactive areas of the peat. The IP response was sensitive to the presence of carbon turnover and P release in the absence of iron sulfide. These highly polarizable areas have high iron concentrations, but most likely in an oxidized form. As most iron oxides are poor conductors, the strong polarization response is unlikely related to an electrode polarization process.

Here we also analyzed the frequency dependence of the SIP data to investigate whether iron oxides and carbon-iron complexes, two possible mechanisms for the high polarization response, can be distinguished. SIP imaging data sets covered the frequency range between 0.06 and 225 Hz and were collected with varying electrode spacing (20 and 50 cm) at different locations within the Waldstein catchment characterized by different properties, e.g., saturated and non-saturated soils. Our imaging results reveal variations of the IP effect within the peat layer, indicating substantial heterogeneities in the peat composition and biogeochemical activity. The frequency dependence allowed us to resolve a sharper contrast between the different features of the peat. Geochemical analyses on a freeze core and pore water samples are used to validate our results and find correlations between the Cole-Cole parameters of the SIP response and the geochemical parameters.

How to cite: Katona, T., Gilfedder, B., Frei, S., Aigner, L., Bücker, M., and Flores Orozco, A.: Determining frequency dependence of carbon turnover in peat using spectral induced polarization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15653, 2021.

EGU21-13549 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Improve NMR estimation of water content and distribution in unsaturated bedrocks

Fan Zhang and Chi Zhang

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has been widely used in near-surface geophysics due to its direct sensitivity to water. As a field form of NMR, borehole NMR has been applied to in situ hydrological investigations for decades. However, the recent implementations of borehole NMR to unsaturated zones face challenges due to the complex geology. Due to the fast operation speed and unsaturated conditions in critical zones, the raw NMR signals often suffer from limited relaxation time ranges and low signal to noise ratios. Such low quality of raw data can induce artifacts during inversion and following data interpretations. This study investigates the long-overdue evaluations of how the low borehole NMR data quality affects water distribution estimation in unsaturated zones. A synthetic analysis based on lab NMR data was first performed to simulate the inversion errors induced by the low-quality borehole NMR data. Lab NMR measurements were conducted on carbonate and shale samples from a well that has a corresponding borehole NMR profile. In order to match the low signal-to-noise ratio and data size of the low-quality borehole NMR data, lab NMR data points were reduced, deadtime was increased and normally distributed noise was added.  The inversion results of the synthetic data reveal that the low signal to noise ratio leads to an overestimation of signals at lower relaxation time while the limited relaxation time range does not significantly affect the total water estimation. To improve the water estimation from the low-quality borehole data, a peak decomposition and peak fusion method were then applied to the synthetic data. Relaxation time distribution of both lab and synthetic data were decomposed into multiple normally distributed peaks. The first peak with the shortest relaxation time from lab NMR was used to substitute the first peak of the synthetic borehole NMR relaxation time distribution. After peak decomposition and fusion, the predicted water contents were closer to lab NMR than original synthetic data. This study reveals the mispredictions of water distribution due to the low data quality of borehole NMR. The success of improving water content estimation on the synthetic study has clear implications that the peak decomposition and peak fusion method can be applied to actual borehole NMR data to improve water content and distribution estimation in unsaturated zones.   

How to cite: Zhang, F. and Zhang, C.: Improve NMR estimation of water content and distribution in unsaturated bedrocks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13549, 2021.

EGU21-10835 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Advances and benefits of fractal models to predict streaming potentials in partially saturated porous media

Damien Jougnot, Luong Duy Thanh, Mariangeles Soldi, Jan Vinogradov, and Luis Guarracino

Understanding streaming potential generation in porous media is of high interest for hydrological and reservoir studies as it allows to relate water fluxes to measurable electrical potential distributions in subsurface geological settings. The evolution of streaming potential stems from electrokinetic coupling between water and electrical fluxes due to the presence of an electrical double layer at the interface between the mineral and the pore water. Two different approaches can be used to model and interpret the generation of the streaming potential in porous media: the classical coupling coefficient approach based on the Helmholtz-Smoluchowski equation, and the effective excess charge density. Recent studies based on both approaches use a mathematical up-scaling procedure that employs the so-called fractal theory. In these studies, the porous medium is represented by a bundle of tortuous capillaries characterized by a fractal capillary-size distribution law. The electrokinetic coupling between the fluid flow and electric current is obtained by averaging the processes that take place in a single capillary. In most cases, closed-form expressions for the electrokinetic parameters are obtained in terms of macroscopic hydraulic variables like permeability, saturation and porosity. In this presentation we propose a review of the existing fractal distribution models that predict the streaming potential in porous media and discuss their benefits compared against other published models.

How to cite: Jougnot, D., Thanh, L. D., Soldi, M., Vinogradov, J., and Guarracino, L.: Advances and benefits of fractal models to predict streaming potentials in partially saturated porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10835, 2021.

EGU21-7720 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Spectral induced polarization of the plant root: Experiments and numerical modeling.

Kuzma Tsukanov and Nimrod Schwartz

Exploration of plant roots and monitoring their conditions during growth is of great importance. A promising method for the non-invasive investigation of plant roots is spectral induced polarization (SIP). To enhance understanding of the mechanism controlling the plant root’s induced polarization response, we have conducted a series of experiments and constructed a physical-based numerical model. We measured the SIP signal of wheat root grown in the nutrient solution. The experiments have demonstrated a relationship between the SIP parameters (chargeability and relaxation time) and the root biomass and surface area. Monitoring the SIP response of roots poisoned by cyanide has revealed that the root polarization source is the cell membrane potential. In addition, we modeled plant root as a collection of 2-dimensional individual cells surrounded by an electrolyte. The SIP signal was calculated based on the numerical solution of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equation. The model has supported the experimental results with the correlation between the magnitude of polarization and the root surface area. According to the model, the root polarization magnitude is related to the root’s external surface area. The polarization length scale is the root’s diameter, not the cell diameter. Based on these results and data from the literature, we suggest that at the low-frequency range associated with the SIP method, passing the current through the plant results in polarization of the individual cells, a relatively high polarization and relaxation time that is related to the cell length. On the other hand, injecting current to the growing medium results in the polarization of the external surface area of the root and polarization length scale related to the root diameter.

How to cite: Tsukanov, K. and Schwartz, N.: Spectral induced polarization of the plant root: Experiments and numerical modeling., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7720, 2021.

EGU21-2839 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Root system monitoring using a mise-à-la-masse (MALM) extension to time-domain IP

Benjamin Mary, Veronika Iván, and Giorgio Cassiani

The development, architecture, and activity of the plant root system has a key role in plant-soil-water interactions, and thus, in plant ecology both in agricultural and natural systems. The characterization of the flow of electric current in the root-soil system may provide non-invasive methodologies to observe the state and dynamics of this critical zone hidden in the shallow subsurface.

Inversion of Current source density (CSD) from Mise-a-la-masse (MALM) surveys provides a straightforward way to describe the shape of a conductive body that charges up. While numerous studies show a correlation between root mass density and electrical capacitance (Ehosioke et al., 2020), physical proofs of the underlying assumptions of such concepts are still missing. In particular, some authors questioned the hypothesis that the xylem behaves as a continuous conductive body with regard to its physiological state. Application of the MALM in conjunction with CSD helps distinguish the current pathway through the root system (Mary et al., 2019; Peruzzo et al., 2020).

As roots are electrically polarisable, their responses depend on the frequency of the current injection. Extending the CSD inversion to secondary voltages produced by secondary currents (after shutting down the primary current) may provide insights into transient phenomena associated with the polarization of the roots.

Based on a Self-Potential (SP) processing algorithm (Shao et al., 2018), we build and test a new inversion scheme of secondary voltages using synthetic models. Small-scale laboratory experiments are in progress on grapevine cuttings placed in water-filled rhizotrons. Root growth will be monitored using MALM in TDIP domain.  

How to cite: Mary, B., Iván, V., and Cassiani, G.: Root system monitoring using a mise-à-la-masse (MALM) extension to time-domain IP, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2839, 2021.

EGU21-7117 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

 Quasi-3D mapping of soil moisture for agriculture using electric conductivity sensing  

Hira Shaukat, Ken Flower, and Matthias Leopold

Knowledge of real time spatial distribution of soil moisture has great potential to improve yield and profit in agricultural systems. Rapid and precise quantification of water in crop fields is challenging due to the influence of highly variable soil properties such as texture and porosity.  Recent advances in non-invasive electromagnetic induction (EMI) techniques have created an opportunity to determine soil moisture content with high-resolution and minimal soil intrusion. So far, EMI has mainly been validated for homogenous soils, which are not common in agriculture. This study from a field site in Western Australia converts time series apparent electrical conductivity data recorded with a Dualem 1Hs EM-meter into spatiotemporal domains. A least square inversion algorithm was used to determine electric conductivities for individual soil layers (0-50cm, 50-80 cm and 80-160 cm) for two EMI surveys at a trial site, with different crop rotations and varying moisture conditions. A laboratory experiment under controlled conditions developed electric conductivity vs volumetric water content relations with power law functions for each layer with R2 values between 0.98 and 0.99. Subsequently, EMI data were converted to volumetric water contents for each layer and predictions were spatially displayed. These EMI soil moisture predictions were compared with neutron moisture meter measurements, with R2 values between 0.95 and 0.74 for the two surveys. The method is robust and offers a comparatively fast method to estimate the soil moisture status in fields and to subsequently make informed management decisions. 

How to cite: Shaukat, H., Flower, K., and Leopold, M.:  Quasi-3D mapping of soil moisture for agriculture using electric conductivity sensing  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7117, 2021.

EGU21-4779 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Spatialization of physical variables in soils by geophysical, geotechnical and geostatistic methods: the Bayesian maximum entropy data fusion approach

Sara Rabouli, Vivien Dubois, Marc Serre, Julien Gance, Hocine Henine, Pascal Molle, Catherine Truffert, and Remi Clement

The soil is considered as a biological reactor or an outlet for treated domestic wastewater, respectively to reduce pollutant concentrations in the flows or because the surface hydraulic medium is too remote. In these cases, the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil is a key is a quantitative measure to assess whether the necessary infiltration capacity is available. To our knowledge, there is no satisfactory technique for evaluating the saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks of a heterogeneous soil (and its variability) at the scale of a parcel of soil. The aim of this study is to introduce a methodology that associates geophysical measurements and geotechnical in order to better described the near-surface saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks. Here we demonstrate here the interest of using a geostatistical approach, the BME "Bayesian Maximum Entropy", to obtain a 2D spatialization of Ks in heterogeneous soils. This tool opens up prospects for optimizing the sizing infiltration structures that receive treated wastewater. In our case, we have Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) data (dense but with high uncertainty) and infiltration test data (reliable but sparse). The BME approach provides a flexible methodological framework to process these data. The advantage of BME is that it reduces to kriging as its linear limiting cases when only Gaussian data is used, but can also integrate data of other types as might be considered in future works. Here we use hard and Gaussian soft data to rigorously integrate the different data at hand (ERT, and Ks measurement) and their associated uncertainties. Based on statistical analysis, we compared the estimation performances of 3 methods: kriging interpolation of infiltration test data, the transformation of ERT data, and BME data fusion of geotechnical and geophysical data. We evaluated the 3 methods of estimation on simulated datasets and we then do a validation analysis using real field data. We find that BME data fusion of geotechnical and geophysical data provides better estimates of hydraulic conductivity than using geotechnical or geophysical data alone.

How to cite: Rabouli, S., Dubois, V., Serre, M., Gance, J., Henine, H., Molle, P., Truffert, C., and Clement, R.: Spatialization of physical variables in soils by geophysical, geotechnical and geostatistic methods: the Bayesian maximum entropy data fusion approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4779, 2021.

Nowadays, tourism and sport activities make the Alps high mountain environment widely populated. As example, the Dolomites (UNCESCO site, North-East Italy) host millions of tourists every year. Consequently, many infrastructures (e.g. roads, cable cars and hotels) have been built in these areas, and are subject to instabilities hazards as landslide, avalanches or frozen soils problems.  Mountain permafrost is in fact one of the many aspects to be considered for the natural hazards and risk management in high mountains environment. Due to the atmospheric warming trend, mountain permafrost is thawing and its degradation is influencing the triggering and the evolvement of natural hazards processes such as rockfalls, landslides, debris flows and floods. We have nearly 5000 rock glaciers in the alps, as highlighted in the inventory of the PermaNET project (2011), therefore the study and monitoring of these periglacial forms has both a scientific and economic importance. Geophysical surveys have been historically applied in this kind of environment, in particular the Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) for the characterization of the active layer thickness (ALT). The technique exploits the high electrical resistivity contrast between frozen and non-frozen debris, and, over the last years, has allowed the researchers to achieve very relevant results. However, performing these measurements is expensive both in terms of time and equipment, particularly considering that the rock glaciers are often very difficult to reach. Thus, usually we are not able to perform many investigation lines and, as the results are 2D resistivity sections, it is very difficult to obtain enough information to completely characterize a heterogeneous environment such as a rock glacier. For this reason, we tried to apply the EMI method (in the frequency domain) for the characterization of the ALT. EMI method, in fact,  theoretically allows us to define the distribution of electrical resistivity in the first subsoil in a very quick way, simply by transporting the device over the interested area. Compared to ERT, it is potentially able to characterize much larger areas of a rock glacier, albeit with a lower resolution and penetration. On the other hand, because the high resistivities of the frozen ground, EMI do not guarantee an optimal working and rigorous acquisition protocol must be adopted. We tested ERT and EMI measurements along the same investigation lines, in two different sites of the Dolomites area (the Murfreit and Biz Boè rock glaciers). Finally, we discussed the advantages and disadvantages of both the techniques.

How to cite: Pavoni, M. and Boaga, J.: Frozen soils characterization by the use of ERT and EMI methods: cases in the Dolomites (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2146, 2021.

EGU21-6465 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Monitoring changes in salinity and sodicity in a tile-drained field in the B-XII irrigation district (SW Spain) using electromagnetic induction sensing and inversion.

José Luis Gómez Flores, Mario Ramos Rodriguez, Alfonso González Jiménez, Mohammad Farzamian, Juan Francisco Herencia Galán, Benito Salvatierra Bellido, Pedro Cermeño Sacristán, and Karl Vanderlinden

Continuous monitoring of soil salinity/sodicity is of prime importance in environments such as the B-XII irrigation district (SW Spain) where a shallow saline water table and intensive irrigated agriculture create a fragile equilibrium between salt accumulation and leaching in the topsoil. We evaluate to which extend electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensing and inversion with limited calibration can be used to accomplish such monitoring purposes, given that widespread soil sampling and laboratory analyses are prohibitive for economic and technical reasons.

Detailed EMI surveys were performed in 2017 and 2020 in a 4-ha tile-drained field with a heavy clay soil. Soil samples were taken at different locations and depths along a transect and analyzed for salinity/sodicity-related parameters. Inversion of the EMI signals along the investigated transect yielded consistent conductivity images for both years and showed a strong relation (R2<0.95) with saturated paste extract conductivity. The observed spatial conductivity patterns persisted from 2017 to 2020, although the obtained absolute values of the salinity/sodicity parameters changed slightly. This indicates that salinity hotspots persist in time and are mainly associated with wet locations, where salt movement towards the topsoil is promoted, possibly as a result of deficiencies in the performance of the drainage system.

Our results show that inversion of EMI signals offers a powerful means for accurately monitoring spatial and temporal changing salinity/sodicity under the specific conditions of the B-XII irrigation district.

 

Acknowledgement

This work is funded by the Spanish State Agency for Research through grant PID2019-104136RR-C21 and by IFAPA/FEDER through grant AVA2019.018.

 

How to cite: Gómez Flores, J. L., Ramos Rodriguez, M., González Jiménez, A., Farzamian, M., Herencia Galán, J. F., Salvatierra Bellido, B., Cermeño Sacristán, P., and Vanderlinden, K.: Monitoring changes in salinity and sodicity in a tile-drained field in the B-XII irrigation district (SW Spain) using electromagnetic induction sensing and inversion., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6465, 2021.

EGU21-2872 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Evaluation of soil salinity and sodicity using electromagnetic conductivity imaging 

Mohammad Farzamian, Francisco José Martinez Moreno, Tiago B. Ramos, Nadia Castanheira, Ana Marta Paz, Fernando A. Monteiro Santos, Carlos A. Alexandre, Maria Catarina Paz, Mario Ramos Rodríguez, Karl Vanderlinden, and Maria C. Gonçalves

In order to prevent further soil degradation, it is important to understand the processes controlling salinization. Salt related problems in soils can refer to an excess of soluble salts (saline soils), a dominance of exchangeable sodium in the soil exchange complex (sodic soils), or a mixture of both situations (saline-sodic soils). These categories are important because the impacts and management vary accordingly. Traditional soil sampling methods –which require boreholes for soil sampling and analysis– difficultly lead to a comprehensive answer to this problem. This is because they cover only small and localized sites and may not be representative of the soil properties at the management scales. Furthermore, they are highly time and work consuming, resulting in costly surveys. Geophysical techniques such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide enormous advantages compared to soil sampling because they allow for in-depth and non-invasive analysis, covering large areas in less time and at a lower cost.

EMI surveys were performed in several regions in Portugal with historic soil salinity and sodicity problems to evaluate the salinization risk. We inverted field apparent conductivity data (σa) in order to obtain electromagnetic conductivity images (EMCI) of the real soil electrical conductivity (σ) in depth. We evaluated the potential of EMCI in the estimation of soil salinity, sodicity, and other soil properties over large areas across regions with a very different range of salinity and sodicity.

 

Acknowledgments

This work was developed in the scope of SOIL4EVER “Sustainable use of soil and water for improving crops productivity in irrigated areas” project supported by FCT, grant no. PTDC/ASP-SOL/28796/2017.

 

How to cite: Farzamian, M., Martinez Moreno, F. J., Ramos, T. B., Castanheira, N., Paz, A. M., Monteiro Santos, F. A., Alexandre, C. A., Paz, M. C., Rodríguez, M. R., Vanderlinden, K., and Gonçalves, M. C.: Evaluation of soil salinity and sodicity using electromagnetic conductivity imaging , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2872, 2021.

EGU21-16296 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Regional calibration and electromagnetic conductivity imaging for assessing the dynamics of soil salinity

Maria Catarina Paz, Mohammad Farzamian, Ana Marta Paz, Nádia Luísa Castanheira, Maria Conceição Gonçalves, and Fernando Monteiro Santos

Electromagnetic conductivity imaging (EMCI) is a state-of-the-art methodology for soil salinity assessment over large areas. It involves the following rationale: (1) use of the electromagnetic induction (EMI) geophysical technique to measure the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa, mS m−1) over an area; (2) inversion of ECa to obtain EMCI, which provides the spatial distribution of the soil electrical conductivity (σ, mS m−1); (3) calibration process consisting of a regression between σ and the electrical conductivity of the saturated soil paste extract (ECe, dS m−1), used as a proxy for soil salinity; and (4) conversion of EMCI into salinity maps using the obtained calibration equation.

In this study, we applied EMCI and a regional calibration in Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in Portugal. The study area is an important agricultural system where soil faces the risk of salinization due to climate change, as the level and salinity of groundwater are likely to increase as a result of the rise of the sea water level and consequently of the estuary. These changes can also affect the salinity of the irrigation water which is collected upstream of the estuary.

EMI surveys and soil sampling were carried out between May 2017 and October 2018 at four locations with different salinity levels across the study area. A regional calibration was developed and its ability to predict ECe from EMCI was evaluated. The validation analysis showed that ECe was predicted with a root mean square error of 3.14 dS m−1 in a range of 52.35 dS m−1, slightly overestimated (−1.23 dS m−1), with a strong Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient of 0.94 and high linearity between measured and predicted data (R2 = 0.88). It was also observed that the prediction ability of the regional calibration is more influenced by spatial variability of data than temporal variability of data.

Because of the transient nature of data, it was also possible to perform a preliminary qualitative analysis of soil salinity dynamics in the study area, revealing salinity fluctuations related to the input of salts and water either through irrigation, precipitation, or level and salinity of groundwater.

How to cite: Paz, M. C., Farzamian, M., Paz, A. M., Castanheira, N. L., Gonçalves, M. C., and Monteiro Santos, F.: Regional calibration and electromagnetic conductivity imaging for assessing the dynamics of soil salinity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16296, 2021.

EGU21-12526 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Supporting successful data and codes sharing practices in agrogeophysics

Veronika Iván, Benjamin Mary, Guillaume Blanchy, Maximillian Weigand, and Sarah Garré

Agrogeophysics comprises the use of geophysical methods applied to near surface agricultural problems. It is an interdisciplinary field which has been gaining momentum given the many advantages of geophysical tools for agriculture: non-invasiveness, large volume sample with reasonable spatial resolution, high-throughput, time-lapse possibility. In order to federate the agrogeophysical community and provide an overview of the field to researchers, we developed the catalog of agrogeophysical studies (CAGS). The catalog and its content is available under open licences and promotes practices that implement the FAIR Data Principles. These principles encourage progress toward sharing data and codes that are Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable. The biggest strength of the CAGS is that it provides an overview of the current research state while providing metadata, associated datasets, and computational notebooks connected to the articles in which they were published. In this way, CAGS encourages reproducible research by providing the datasets and processing steps to reproduce the results of the papers. The ambition is to ultimately unite the agrogeophysical community around common standards for data processing and data interpretation. The website is hosted on GitHub (https://agrogeophy.github.io/catalog/). The open nature of CAGS and the possibility for everyone to contribute to it makes it a great platform to increase knowledge exchange across the different various international research teams.

Benjamin Mary, and Guillaume Blanchy. 2020. CAGS: Catalog of Agrogeophysical Studies. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4058524.

How to cite: Iván, V., Mary, B., Blanchy, G., Weigand, M., and Garré, S.: Supporting successful data and codes sharing practices in agrogeophysics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12526, 2021.

EGU21-11535 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Hydrogeophysical coupled inversion in coastal aquifers: the Argentona case

Andrea Palacios, Tybaud Goyetche, Niklas Linde, and Jesús Carrera

Most, if not all, models of real aquifers go through a calibration process to adjust their hydraulic and solute transport parameters in order to bring the simulations outputs closer to the field observations. In coastal aquifers, the datasets are commonly composed of head time series, solute concentrations from water samples, and water and formation electrical conductivity, these last being of particular importance in coastal settings due to their relevance for seawater detection. Argentona is a well-instrumented field site of a coastal alluvial aquifer located 40 km NE of Barcelona, where a 2-year Cross-Hole Electrical Resistivity Tomography (CHERT) experiment was performed. CHERT provided high resolution electrical resistivity data in depth and allowed the visualization of dynamic aquifer processes. In the present work, we test the calibration of the Argentona SWI model using both the hydrological and the geophysical datasets. To do so, a density-dependent groundwater model was combined with CHERT forward modeling within a parameter calibration framework. In the process we pay attention to the CHERT capacity to recover aquifer salinities, to the coupling of the hydrological and geophysical simulations through petrophysics, to the use of the field specific relations and to the inverse problem parametrization, among other things. Pre-calibration analysis showed the sensitivity of the formation electrical resistivities to the porosities and to the petrophysical parameters, so the inverse problem solves for hydraulic transmissivities, porosities and petrophysical parameters. From the comparison of the preliminary results from the hydrological and the hydrogeophysical calibration, we observe that they point towards a better calibration of model porosities when the electrical resistivity is included in the inverse problem. The results will be compared to other parameter estimation methods, such as laboratory tests, the tidal method and heat tests, also performed at the Argentona site. We will conclude on the added value of the geophysical dataset in the calibration process, the possible improvements and drawbacks of the method.

How to cite: Palacios, A., Goyetche, T., Linde, N., and Carrera, J.: Hydrogeophysical coupled inversion in coastal aquifers: the Argentona case, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11535, 2021.

EGU21-8455 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Quantification of groundwater storage heterogeneity in a hard rock aquifer using near-surface ERT and IP geophysical techniques

Jesús Alberto Mézquita González and Jean-Christophe Comte

Characterization of groundwater aquifers plays an important role in addressing the increasing demand for freshwater and low carbon energy. Specifically, hard rock aquifers that have been neglected in the past due to their overall low productivity, are increasingly recognised as important aquifers for local water supplies, sustaining environmental flows, and low enthalpy geothermal resources. Groundwater flow and, more so storage, in these aquifers are still poorly understood creating a necessity to quantify their properties and role in sustaining human and ecosystem needs. This study aims to quantify groundwater storage properties, and their spatial variability, in weathered/fractured hard rock aquifers using near-surface geophysical techniques and further evaluate the associated uncertainties. To do so, we analysed 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and induced polarization (IP) data in combination with 1D magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) and borehole geophysical logging from a metamorphic rock catchment in Gortinlieve, Ireland. The geophysical data comprised a challenging dataset that includes information at different resolution scales: a low-resolution ERT profile of 1,3 km of length, a high-resolution ERT+IP profile of 70 m of length, 8 MRS logs distributed along the study area, borehole logs (gamma ray, temperature and caliper) and petrological analysis at borehole locations. Aquifers storativity data derived from application of petrophysical model to the geophysical data showed good accuracy and reasonable uncertainty of estimated properties. ERT porosities derived from Archie´s model revealed that this model overestimates the porosity for the study site whereas estimates derived from the Waxman & Smits (WS) model, which accounts for the influence of the cation exchange capacity (CEC) of clay minerals on the ERT measurements, were closer to specific yield values obtained from pumping test in boreholes, MRS water content estimates and the typical ranges of hard rock aquifers. The superiority of WS over Archie demonstrated that the clay content cannot be neglected when characterizing storage properties in weathered/fractured basement rock aquifers. Water content profiles from MRS corroborated the results with a particularly good match at three locations across the study area characterised by deep weathering/fracturing associated with regional fracture zones. Results demonstrated that the methodology provides a reasonable estimate of storage heterogeneity which is consistent with weathering/fracturing patterns as described in accepted conceptual models of hard rock aquifers. To further challenge the ERT porosity models, we tested an alternative approach based on the differential effective medium (DEM) theory applied to time-domain IP data to recover CEC and porosity tomograms. Preliminary results show promise, through yielding porosity values close to both 2D WS porosities and 1D MRS water contents and, importantly, the approach may provide a mean to bypass the requirement for having direct clay data of the study site. Taken together, the results confirmed that near-surface geophysical techniques are key instruments to assess groundwater conditions in hard rock aquifers and quantify the spatial heterogeneity of their storage properties at larger scales. The approach can be applied in similar hard rock environments affected by weathering and fracturing.

How to cite: Mézquita González, J. A. and Comte, J.-C.: Quantification of groundwater storage heterogeneity in a hard rock aquifer using near-surface ERT and IP geophysical techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8455, 2021.

EGU21-5169 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

EMI characterization in mountain catchments: multi-frequency versus multi-coil inversion using EMagPy

Guillaume Blanchy, Paul McLachlan, Matteo Censini, Jacopo Boaga, Andrew Binley, and Giorgio Cassiani

Advanced modeling of hydrological processes in mountain catchments requires accurate characterization of the shallow subsurface, and in particular the depth to the soil/bedrock interface. Frequency domain electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods are well suited to this challenge as they have short acquisition times and do not require direct coupling with the ground; consequently they can be highly productive. Moreover, although traditionally used for revealing lateral electrical conductivity changes, EMI inversion is increasingly used to quantitatively resolve both lateral and vertical changes. These quantitative models can then be used to inform several properties relevant for hydrological modelling (e.g. water content, permeability).

In this work the open-source software EMagPy is used to compare between EMI data collected with a multi-coil device (i.e. a single frequency device with multiple receiver coils) and a multi-frequency device (i.e. a single inter-coil distance and multiple frequencies). The latter instrument is easier to handle because of its shorter length and lower weight, and thus it is potentially more suitable for the rugged topography of mountain slopes. However it is important to compare the value of information (e.g. sensitivity patterns and data quality) obtained from both instruments.

To begin with, the performance of both devices is assessed using synthetic modeling. Following from this the analysis is focused on two mountainous catchments: one located in the Alpine region above 2000 m a.s.l., the other in a Mediterranean catchment in Southern Italy. Both sites have differing geological and hydrological conditions and provide a useful comparison to determine the suitability of multi-frequency and multi-coil devices, and highlight necessary considerations of EMI acquisition.

How to cite: Blanchy, G., McLachlan, P., Censini, M., Boaga, J., Binley, A., and Cassiani, G.: EMI characterization in mountain catchments: multi-frequency versus multi-coil inversion using EMagPy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5169, 2021.

EGU21-7420 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Merging tTEM data and borehole lithological information to generate hydrogeologic structural models and redox conditions through Direct Sampling

Niels Claes, Rasmus Rumph Frederiksen, Troels Norvin Vilhelmsen, Nikolaj Foged, Hyojin Kim, and Anders Vest Christiansen

Detailed 3D structural information of the subsurface is fundamental for the development of both hydrological and geochemical models. This structural information is often derived from geophysical mapping results. Some parts of a catchments areas are however inaccessible for the geophysical mapping or might suffer from low data quality, which results in information gaps. Multipoint statistics can be used to remediate these data gaps and incorporate uncertainty in the construction of the hydrogeological models. This results in an ensemble of plausible 3D hydrogeological models.

This project focusses on nitrate retention mapping. The approach taken is to start from the resistivity models that are obtained from the tTEM measurement campaign. These resistivity datasets are combined with borehole lithological data from the Danish national well-database in an automated procedure that estimates resistivity-to sand/clay translator functions. This results in a clay fraction – resistivity data pair for every point in the subsurface where resistivity data is collected. These clay fraction – resistivity data pairs are converted to discrete hydrogeological units through clustering. This procedure is performed because the groundwater model that uses the end-product of this workflow, uses hydrogeological units rather than resistivity values or clay fractions to define zones of similar hydrogeological behavior.

Direct sampling is used to go from the cluster information obtained at the resistivity model location to fill out the full model volume and generate multiple plausible model realizations. This method allows, at the same time, for incorporating uncertainty through separation of data into a hard  data set for the cluster information with higher probability, and a soft data set for the cluster information with lower probability. Since the redox conditions in the subsurface are related to the hydrogeological conditions, we are using this method to co-simulate hydrogeological units and redox conditions by merging the cluster training dataset with a redox condition training dataset that is constructed based on the cluster dataset and hydrogeochemical samples that are collected across the catchment. We combine the three training images: resistivity, cluster and redox condition, to simultaneous simulate the three variables in each grid point as a vector, instead of simulating them as separate variables.  The resulting set of  3D hydrogeologic structural models and redox condition models retains the complex geostatistical spatial relationships that can exists between the different type of datasets within the training image, making them suitable for nitrate retention modeling at catchment scale.

How to cite: Claes, N., Frederiksen, R. R., Vilhelmsen, T. N., Foged, N., Kim, H., and Christiansen, A. V.: Merging tTEM data and borehole lithological information to generate hydrogeologic structural models and redox conditions through Direct Sampling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7420, 2021.

EGU21-8981 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

From seismic geomorphology to hydrostratigraphic units: spatial and temporal variations of deltaic to fluvial architecture, Pannonian Basin, Hungary

Hana Ben Mahrez, Lilla Tőkés, John Molson, Judit Mádl-Szőnyi, and Orsolya Sztanó

This study focuses on the stratigraphic architecture of deltaic and fluvial sand lithologies within the Late Neogene Pannonian basin-fill succession in Hungary, identified from seismic and well data, in order to develop a quantitative hydrostratigraphic classification of the sequence. Hydrostratigraphic divisions are based on the hydraulic conductivity of the rock bodies, which depends on their extent, i.e. the thickness and the spatial distribution, as well as the lateral and vertical connectivity of sand bodies embedded in various muddy lithologies. Thus, we are going to build a simplified 3D lithological model for the uppermost 1500 m of the basin fill succession, that can later be transformed into hydrostratigraphic units and hydraulic conductivity values applied in a numerical flow model. The depositional environments change from deltaic to fluvial and within the fluvial system, the environment alternates between meandering and anastomosing. These intervals will appear as different hydrostratigraphic units in the model.  

In our work-flow, a merged three-dimensional seismic cube covering an area of approximately    50 x 40 km2 was analyzed: 7 master horizons and several proportional slices were delineated in different attribute maps (e.g. amplitude, Root Mean Square amplitude, symmetry, similarity). These maps were generated to investigate the seismic geomorphological features and their associated depositional environments. Rock bodies were defined on the planform geometry of seismic attributes. Basic wireline logs (gamma, spontaneous potential, and resistivity) from 237 wells were interpreted simply in terms of sand, mud, and heterolithic muddy-sand, and finally were tied to the seismic cube. Lithology of rock bodies was determined with the help of well data. With this method, sandy deltaic lobes, sandy fluvial channel belts, and the muddy flood plains were identified. Based on the extension and density of sand bodies, percentages of sand vs clay (net-to-gross; N/G) as well as sand connectivity percentages were determined.

Above the deltaic succession, the fluvial depositional setting can be divided into three minor units. These units start with a meandering system, with 500-3600 m wide channel belts and a relatively high N/G. For an interval in the Pliocene about 350 m thick, a transition into an anastomosing river system is observed. This unit is characterized by channels about 100-200 m wide, with significantly lower N/G ratios and less connectedness. In the uppermost part of the succession, large meandering channel belts returned to the area. These changes in river style and paleo-hydrography affect the sand and clay ratio and their connectivity; therefore, definition of previous hydrostratigraphic units must be reconsidered. 

This research is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 810980.

How to cite: Ben Mahrez, H., Tőkés, L., Molson, J., Mádl-Szőnyi, J., and Sztanó, O.: From seismic geomorphology to hydrostratigraphic units: spatial and temporal variations of deltaic to fluvial architecture, Pannonian Basin, Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8981, 2021.

EGU21-10263 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Optimal design of an hydrogeophysical monitoring system of compacting volcanic aquifers (Tenerife Island)

Pablo J. Gonzalez, Maria Charco, Antonio Eff-Darwich, Anthony Lamur, Rayco Marrero, and Silvio De Angelis

Groundwater in volcanic islands is usually the main source of freshwater, and it is essential for sustainable development. In Tenerife Island, groundwater extraction occurs by drilling horizontal water tunnels, called water galleries, as well as numerous coastal wells. Since around 1900, but especially since the 1960s, hundreds of water tunnels have been drilled for agriculture and freshwater supply. This has resulted in a sustained extraction of groundwater larger than the natural recharge, leading to a general water table decline, locally up to 200 m of down drop. Since 2000, satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) applied to measure surface deformation has located several subsidence bowls (e.g., Fernandez et al., 2009). The localized surface deformation patterns have been correlated with water table changes and hence aquifer compaction. However, no further investigations have been carried out to confirm which characteristics (chemical composition, texture, porous network, alterations, etc.) of the volcanic materials can control compaction process, and to which extent porous volcanic units, the most abundant material in Tenerife, can compact to explain the observed surface deformation. This lack of knowledge might affect the effectiveness of water management policies.

To investigate the compaction processes affecting the volcanic aquifer, we propose to set up a passive hydrogeophysical monitoring network composed of geodetic and seismological instruments. However, considering logistic constrains it is desirable to have as low as possible number of observation sites, whist maximizing the detection and characterization of the aquifer dynamics. Here, we explore different network configurations to maximize the spatial and temporal characterization of the compaction processes using machine learning methods (low-rank matrix techniques). We pose the network design as an optimization process with the aim to parsimoniously have as fewer as possible ground station sites, and have a low error on reconstructing spatiotemporal land subsidence observations. Land subsidence rates were estimated using Sentinel-1 radar interferometric observations from October 2014 to December 2020. This method allows for an optimal network configuration, with respect to the dual penalty function, which facilitate the decision making. Nevertheless, this type of network design should be regarded as proposals because some station site conditions are a priori unknown. Although, one could modify the penalty function to optimize the network considering additional types of information, e.g., geological materials, groundwater table time series, etc.

Fernandez, J., et al. (2009), Gravity-driven deformation of Tenerife measured by InSAR time series analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04306, doi:10.1029/2008GL036920.

How to cite: Gonzalez, P. J., Charco, M., Eff-Darwich, A., Lamur, A., Marrero, R., and De Angelis, S.: Optimal design of an hydrogeophysical monitoring system of compacting volcanic aquifers (Tenerife Island), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10263, 2021.

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is gaining momentum as a powerful hydrogeological tool for inferring the hydraulic properties of soils between boreholes [1]. Nonetheless, the large computational requirements of FWI make it often unattainable with limited practical uptake [2]. In addition, the inability to accurate reconstruct the loss mechanisms and the need for a good initial model, further reduce the applicability of FWI [1], [2].

In order to overcome the aforementioned limitations, we suggest a novel framework that substantially reduces the optimization space of FWI which consequently reduces the overall computational requirements [2]. This methodology assumes that the water fraction of the investigated medium follows a fractal distribution [3]. Based on that, using a principal components analysis on 3000 randomly generated fractals, we build an orthonormal basis that is fine-tuned for fractal correlated noise. Furthermore, it is proven [2], that fractal correlated noise is highly compressible and can be sufficiently represented with just 30-40 principal components. This reduces the optimization space since now FWI needs to fine-tune just these 30-40 parameters instead of every cell of the investigated medium [2].

The involved fractals describe the distribution of the water fraction that is subsequently transformed to dielectric properties via a semi-empirical formula that relates readily available soil properties to the frequency depended complex electric permittivity [4], [5]. Via this approach, we overcome the need for a simultaneous FWI for both permittivity and conductivity [6]. This further reduces the optimization space and overcomes pitfalls associated with reconstructing loss mechanisms [2].

References

[1] Klotzsche, A., Vereecken, H., & Kruk van der J., (2019), Review of Crosshole Ground-Penetrating Radar Full-Waveform Inversion of Experimental Data: Recent Developments, challenges, and Pitfalls, Geophysics, vol. 84, pp. H13-H28.

[2] Giannakis, I, Giannopoulos, A., Warren, C. & Sofroniou, A., (2021), Fractal-Constrained Crosshole/Borehole-to-Surface Full Waveform Inversion for Hydrogeological Applications Using Ground-Penetrating Radar, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Early Access.

[3] Turcotte, L. (1992), Fractal and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, Cambrige, UK: The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge.

[4] Peplinski, N. R., Ulaby, F. T., & Dobson, M. C., (1995), Dielectric Properties of Soils in the 0.3-1.3 GHz Range, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 803-807.

[5] Giannakis, I., Realistic Numerical Modelling of Ground Penetrating Radar for Landmine Detection, (2016), PhD Thesis Submitted at The University of Edinburgh.

[6] Meles, G. A., Kruk, van der J., Grennhalgh, S. A., Ernst, J. R., Maurer, H & Green, A. G., (2010), A New Vector Waveform Inversion Algorithm for Simultaneous Updating of Conductivity and Permittivity Parameters from Combination Cross/Borehole-to-Surface GPR Data, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, vol. 48, no. 9, pp. 3391-3407.

How to cite: Giannakis, I., Warren, C., Giannopoulos, A., and Sofroniou, A.: Fractal-Based Orthonormal Basis for Compressing and Reducing the Dimensionality of Full-Waveform Inversion for Hydrogeological Applications Using Ground-Penetrating Radar, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16464, 2021.

EGU21-15001 | vPICO presentations | HS8.1.10

Geophysical Investigation of Boreal Forest Hydrogeology and Implications for Greenhouse Gas Fluxes

Jordan R Mertes, Bernd Kulessa, and Natascha Kljun

HS8.2.1 – The role of groundwater flow systems in solving water management and environmental problems

EGU21-12064 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Managing coastal aquifers in climate and socio-economic change: An indicator-based multi-criteria decision system approach

Tobias Langmann, Hans Matthias Schöniger, Anke Schneider, and Michael Sander

Worldwide, climate change as well as socio-economic changes are increasing pressure on water supply in coastal regions and lead to major changes in groundwater recharge as well as the regional water balance as parts of the hydrosystem. These changes are threatening water security and, thereby, impede the fulfillment of the SDG 6 targets, esp. SDG targets 6.2., 6.4. and 6.6 of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Thus, a modern water management demands innovative and profound methods and tools that comprehensively cover these complex changes. To address this challenge,  in the BMBF project "go-CAM" (Implementing strategic development goals in Coastal Aquifer Management) we took the methodological approach of developing new groundwater status indicators (e.g. chloride concentration in groundwater, position of saltwater/freshwater interface, freshwater volume) and corresponding target functions implemented in a new online-based management and evaluation tool called "CAM" (Coastal Aquifer Management). Both the physically based indicators as well as the target functions tackle economic as well as ecological issues. The groundwater status indicators are directly derived from the results of high-resolution, process-based (hydrological and hydrogeological) modeling of coastal hydrosystems. Due to their physical nature, the indicators are only applicable with appropriately designed climate and socio-economic scenarios for coastal water management if they are generated with models that also capture the system-relevant processes: Groundwater recharge, groundwater abstraction, discharge dynamics through drainage systems, sea level rise and groundwater discharge to the sea and saltwater intrusion.

The CAM platform is a tool that provides a way to make the results of the complex and extensive numerical modeling usable for a wider community and thus allow for a more efficient result exploitation. Building on the indicators and the selection of target functions and weighting factors the CAM tool uses Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques (MCDA) to strengthen transparency and objectivity in decision-making processes and encourage communication between decision-makers in the water sector of coastal regions. In this way, the application of the CAM tool contributes to the establishment of an integrated water resources management and to derive and discuss future water management strategies as well as concrete measures.

Our methodological approach as well as the results are presented applied to a regional coastal groundwater study area in the northwestern part of Germany, the Sandelermöns region, which covers an area of about 1,000 km².

How to cite: Langmann, T., Schöniger, H. M., Schneider, A., and Sander, M.: Managing coastal aquifers in climate and socio-economic change: An indicator-based multi-criteria decision system approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12064, 2021.

EGU21-1484 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

How irrigation good practices can put under pressure the groundwater system of the Bacchiglione Basin (Italy)

Mara Meggiorin, Giulia Passadore, Silvia Bertoldo, Andrea Sottani, and Andrea Rinaldo

In the coming years, water resource management will become more and more important for satisfying competing water-related needs under the pressure of water scarcity and climate change. The choice of how to allocate water is difficult, uncertain, and context specific. This study aims to bring to the fore a significant example of sustainability of groundwater system management under specific requirements and dependence on irrigation activities. The groundwater system at hand is the Bacchiglione basin, near Vicenza (Veneto, Italy), an essential water asset for local ecosystems, human needs and economic activities. Its recharge mainly happens in the northern unconfined portion by three factors: river seepage, rain and irrigation infiltrations.

Historically, the contribution of irrigation practices has been fundamental for recharging the hydrogeological system. However, local irrigation authorities have begun to replace traditional irrigation techniques, such as the field overflow or draining channels, with more innovative techniques, such as piping grids with sprinkling devices. The shift towards more efficient methodologies, whose main goal is to save water, puts under pressure the local groundwater system because of the reduced artificial recharge.

Currently, the present irrigation network, techniques and activity schedule yields an overall annual irrigation contribution of approximately 5.4 m3/s, about the 25% of the total inflow at the basin scale. This flow is expected to decrease in the future. By modelling the system (via FEFLOW), this study concerns possible scenarios by changing the irrigation technique. As an example, all currently overflowed fields are converted to sprinkling irrigation. This technical change leads to an estimated inflow decrease of 1.6 m3/s during the irrigation period between May and August, without considering the consequent decreased dispersion by distribution channels. This scenario highlighted an area particularly affected by a piezometric drawdown which is of particular interest because in the district many wells for the public supply authorities are located.

Our study confirms irrigation as an important recharging factor within the Bacchiglione basin. The project of ​​making agriculture more efficient with 'good practices' involves in this specific case a lowering groundwater level, comparable to climate change and land use change effects. To counteract such resource depletion, local irrigation authorities have already tested managed aquifer recharge measures, like e.g. forested infiltration areas. To be effective, however, such interventions should be planned at larger spatial scales to grant adequate long-term effects. Moreover, the present work suggests to keep active irrigation channels in winter months to increase seepage and also to sustain local habitats and ecosystems and maintain the rural landscape.

How to cite: Meggiorin, M., Passadore, G., Bertoldo, S., Sottani, A., and Rinaldo, A.: How irrigation good practices can put under pressure the groundwater system of the Bacchiglione Basin (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1484, 2021.

EGU21-12006 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

 Water management in the Mucille area (NE Italy) through hydrologic balance estimation

Luca Zini, Philippe Turpaud, and Chiara Calligaris

After abundant rainfalls, the Mucille area (Ronchi dei Legionari, Northeastern Italy) is subject to frequent flooding. Although this area has always been exposed to such hazard, these inundations become problematic since 2001 as they more frequently affect housing and recreational areas, leading the population to believe that the swallow holes draining the area stopped functioning. The increased frequency of intense rainfall events led the municipal technicians to involve the Department of Mathematics and Geosciences of the University of Trieste to assess the situation. The Mucille karstic depression is fed by a spring area and drained by two swallow holes one of which is permanently active while the other operates only during floods. The Mucille springs represent the westernmost drain of the Classical Karst aquifer. During floods, as in-situ discharge measurements are impossible, only a hydrologic balance model may assess the inflow or outflow discharges. The extension of the flooded areas has been mapped. The obtained flooded surface together with high resolution DEM coverage allows to calculate the volume of surface water. Combined with water table levels recorded in an adjacent piezometer, this volume can be computed over time. Thus, the hydrologic balance (inflow minus outflow) can be estimated. This model has been applied to several flood events among which, two were the most important in terms of flooded areas: one in December 2017 and the other in November 2019. During the event of December 2017, the water level reached 7,5 m a.s.l. and the difference between the inflow and the outflow was 880 l/s. The day following the peak, the discharge difference decreased to 273 l/sand the 5 subsequent days the water balance was close to equilibrium. From the eighth day on, the outflow became predominant resulting in a negative budget between -233 and -78 l/s. The flood event of November 2019 reached the maximum inundated area at a water level of 7,8 m a.s.l. with a difference between the inflow and the outflow of 750 l/s . Two days after the peak a negative balance of -200 l/s was recorded and remained negative for the next 5 days. A period of intermittent precipitations increased again the inflow up to 600 l/s. Following a period of ten days with a negative balance the water level returned to the initial values of 5 m a.s.l. This study provides evidences fundamental for the design of measures to mitigate the risk. It estimates the discharge of the swallow holes, confirming their efficiency. Nonetheless it also emphasises the need to improve their draining capacity, especially considering the unsuspected high outflow of the springs at the onset of the flood.

How to cite: Zini, L., Turpaud, P., and Calligaris, C.:  Water management in the Mucille area (NE Italy) through hydrologic balance estimation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12006, 2021.

EGU21-9056 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Spatial variability and changes in storage-discharge relationships of crystalline catchments: implications for resilience and water resources management

Ronan Abhervé, Clément Roques, Laurent Longuevergne, Stéphane Louaisil, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, and Luc Aquilina

While it is well understood and accepted that climate change and growing water needs affect the availability of water resources, the identification of the main physical processes involved remains challenging. It notably requires to filter interannual to interdecadal fluctuations and extreme events to isolate the underlying trends. Metropolitan areas are specifically subject to growing pressures because of the significant and increasing demand, combined with the strong anthropization of land uses.

The Meu-Chèze-Canut catchment supplies the city of Rennes with drinking water (680 km² - 500 000 users, Brittany, France). In this field laboratory, we explore the dynamics of the water cycle and water resources availability. In this context, water supply is mostly coming from reservoir storage for which levels shows a medium-term vulnerability in response to frequent relatively dry years. Based on retrospective data analysis, we describe the relationship between climatic forcing (precipitation, temperature) and water availability (aquifer storage, river discharge and reservoir storage) in different parts of the catchment that are characterized by distinct lithological and topographical settings. We then evaluate the resilience of both surface and groundwater resources, their past evolution and their resilience to climate change and increasing societal needs.

Water resources availability in these catchments relies on two geological formations with distinct hydrodynamics properties: the Armorican sandstone and Brioverian schist. To assess the resilience of the system, we specifically analyzed the relationships between monthly effective precipitation and stream discharge within nine sub-catchments over the past 30 years. We observe annual hysteresis relationships - that is, a time lag between precipitation and discharge highlighting the capacity of the landscape to temporarily store water - with significant variability in shapes across the catchments. We argue that topographic and lithological factors play key roles in controlling this variability through their impacts on subsurface storage capacity and characteristic drainage timescales. We propose perspectives based on the complementary use of calibrated groundwater models to leverage these results and provide adaptive water management strategies.

How to cite: Abhervé, R., Roques, C., Longuevergne, L., Louaisil, S., de Dreuzy, J.-R., and Aquilina, L.: Spatial variability and changes in storage-discharge relationships of crystalline catchments: implications for resilience and water resources management, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9056, 2021.

EGU21-1979 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources in Estonia and Latvia

Aiga Krauze, Jaanus Terasmaa, Elve Lode, Janis Bikše, Kersti Türk, Siim Tarros, Maile Polikarpus, Andres Marandi, Kristiina Ojamäe, and Agnese Priede

European water policy requires to carry out nine tests for characterisation of groundwater bodies status, including the development of joint transboundary groundwater management principles. 

Gauja/Koiva and Salaca/Salatsi Rivers have a joint, Estonian/Latvian transboundary water cycle, including the groundwater recharge and discharge cycling. Despite the fact that groundwater is the only drinking water source in Gauja/Koiva and Salaca/Salatsi River basins and ensures the existence of many groundwater dependent ecosystems, the overall awareness of integrated cross-border management practice is still poorly understood and poorly linked in implementation of concrete groundwater protection actions. 

Taking into account the above-mentioned aspects, Latvian and Estonian groundwater and groundwater dependent ecosystems specialists from research, nature protection and groundwater resources management institutions have joined forces in the project funded by the Interreg Estonia-Latvia program: "Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources in Estonia and Latvia "(WaterAct).

The ongoing Est-Lat project “WaterAct” (2020–2022) of joint transboundary groundwater management project organised into the three activity blocks: (1) The capacity building of the joint groundwater transboundary management through exchange of knowledge and best management practices between project partners and key experts in other European Union countries; (2) Assessment of groundwater resources in transboundary River basins to improve groundwater management in accordance with valid international directives; (3) Dissemination and outreach activities to increase the overall awareness of ecosystems friendly groundwater management and protection of key actors working with groundwater assessments and locals. 

Firstly, the joint cross-boundary principles of identification and status assessment of shared groundwater bodies will be developed. Adaptation of existing knowledge, cross-boundary harmonization and development of needed methodologies will be used. 

Secondly, the joint cross-boundary assessment principles will be implemented into groundwater resources management. The status assessment of shared groundwater bodies will be carried out in close cooperation between project partners to create materials necessary for the development of last River Basin Management Plans (2022-2027), required by the Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directive.

Thirdly, the dissemination of project results will be carried out (1) by compilation of Guidelines of Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems for different levels and fields of decision making and experts, (2) by compilation of Spring Water Monitoring Guide for Volunteers and starting volunteer monitoring. For volunteer monitoring, a special web-based map application will be developed (allikad.info). 

 

The project of “Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources” (WaterAct, Est-Lat155) funded by ERDF Interreg Estonia-Latvia cooperation programme.

How to cite: Krauze, A., Terasmaa, J., Lode, E., Bikše, J., Türk, K., Tarros, S., Polikarpus, M., Marandi, A., Ojamäe, K., and Priede, A.: Joint actions for more efficient management of common groundwater resources in Estonia and Latvia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1979, 2021.

EGU21-7783 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Management of groundwater salinization under a climate change scenario in an aridarea

Oussama Dhaoui, Isabel Margarida Horta Ribeiro Antunes, Belgacem Agoubi, and Adel Kharroubi

Most future scenarios for water resources are predicting water scarcity, with a decrease in the amount
of precipitation and limitation on groundwater recharge for the next five decades. In arid and semi-
arid areas, the water quality is a great problem and groundwater salinization is one of the principal
causes of degradation of water resources worldwide.
Menzel Habib aquifer is located in the northwest of Gabès region (southeastern Tunisia), included in
the arid Mediterranean bioclimatic area, with dry hot summers and relatively warm winters.
Groundwater geochemistry from the study area shows a Na-Cl and Ca-Mg-Cl-SO 4 dominant facies.
The high groundwater mineralization and its correlation between total dissolved solids and major ions
suggest a contribution of SO 4 , Cl, Na, Ca and Mg in groundwater salinization processes.
The salinization of groundwater is mainly associated with the Triassic evaporites, with the dissolution
of halite, anhydrite and gypsum, occurring in the area, and related to the tectonic context of the
region. Additionally, other geochemical processes occurred, such is the cation exchange mechanisms.
Changes in precipitation patterns and intensity, with water scarcity, low recharge and excessive
pumping have affected groundwater quantity and quality. Nowadays, the occurrence of climate
changes scenarios is a major drawback for water use for irrigation and drinking water supply in arid
and semi-arid regions, such as Menzel Habib aquifer.

How to cite: Dhaoui, O., Horta Ribeiro Antunes, I. M., Agoubi, B., and Kharroubi, A.: Management of groundwater salinization under a climate change scenario in an aridarea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7783, 2021.

EGU21-13095 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Impacts of Desalinated Irrigation Water in the Abu Dhabi surficial aquifer

Claudia Cherubini, Sathish Sadhasivam, Nicola Pastore, and Monica Ghirotti

Abu Dhabi is one of the arid regions in the world having less than 100 mm of rainfall per annum. The renewability of freshwater occurs only in the eastern part. The groundwater resources under desirable quality are very concise due to limited dilution/rainfall and higher rate of evaporation. Hence, in recent decades, desalinated water has been introduced for agriculture activities and surplus desalinated water is injected into the aquifer as artificial recharge. This study is conducted to understand the impacts in the aquifer system caused by the introduction of desalinated water for agriculture activities and for aquifer recharge structures. The simulation was carried out from 2000 to 2050 using reported rate of groundwater pumping and of desalinated water with 0.1 g/l, 0.5 g/l, 1 g/l, 1.5 g/l and 2 g/l degrees of salinity. A wide range of decline in the groundwater table is noticed in the western part of the aquifer due to less rainfall recharge. The results confirm that this region demands either reduction in agricultural activities or additional usage of desalinated water by which the pumping of groundwater can be reduced further. The improvement in the groundwater quality is noticed in the aquifer due to the addition of less saline desalinated water into the aquifer. This study confirms the long term suitability of existing aquifer recharge structure. Also, it expresses the need of further management practices in quantifying the desalinated water contribution for agriculture activities.

 

How to cite: Cherubini, C., Sadhasivam, S., Pastore, N., and Ghirotti, M.: Impacts of Desalinated Irrigation Water in the Abu Dhabi surficial aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13095, 2021.

EGU21-14734 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Investigating the possible measure to protect groundwater from polluted streams in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: the Eastern Nile Delta case study

Ismail Abd-Elaty, Martina Zelenakova, Salvatore Straface, Zuzana Vranayová, Mohamed Abu-hashim, Abdelazim Negm, and Andrea Scozzari

Groundwater is the main source of drinking water in the Nile Delta. Unfortunately, it might be polluted by seepage from polluted streams. This study was carried out to investigate the possible measures  to  protect groundwater  in the Nile delta aquifer using a numerical model (MT3DMS - Mass Transport 3-Dimension Multi-Species). The sources of groundwater contamination were identified and the total dissolved solids (TDS) was taken as an indicator for the contamination. Different strategies were investigated for mitigating the impact of polluted water: i) allocating polluted drains and canals in lower permeability layers; ii)  installing cut-off walls in the polluted drains, and finally, iii) using lining materials in polluted drains and canals. Results indicated these measures effective to mitigate the groundwater pollution. In particular, the cut-off wall was effective for contamination reduction in shallow aquifers, whereas it had no effect in the deep aquifer, while lining materials in polluted drains and canals were able to prevent contamination and to protect the freshwater in the aquifers.  It is worth mentioning that this study was partially supported by a bilateral project between ASRT (Egypt) and CNR (Italy).

 

 

How to cite: Abd-Elaty, I., Zelenakova, M., Straface, S., Vranayová, Z., Abu-hashim, M., Negm, A., and Scozzari, A.: Investigating the possible measure to protect groundwater from polluted streams in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: the Eastern Nile Delta case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14734, 2021.

EGU21-910 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Management of groundwater sustainability and contamination - a Mozambique case study

Isabel Margarida Horta Antunes and Ameno Bande

Groundwater is vulnerable to contamination from natural and anthropogenic activities. The agricultural and human activities associated with hydrological characteristics influence the quality of groundwater. The City of Tete is in the Nharthanda Valley (Zambezi River, Central Mozambique). The city faces a set of serious structural issues of access to water such as a precarious public water supply system, including a lack of network management, water rationing, and a poor sewerage system. Groundwater is collected from the aquifer for the public water supply system of the old city of Tete and a for a traditional agro-livestock farm, which is irrigated by artesian wells. Groundwater abstraction has increased in the last few decades, and it was identified as a risk for groundwater quality and quantity. Groundwater physic-chemical and microbiological parameters obtained from fifteen boreholes and eleven wells have been determined to assess water quality. The presence of potential contaminant activities throughout the Nhartanda Valley and adjacent areas associated with contamination of the Zambezi River contribute to the degradation of water quality. The high vulnerability index for most chemical and microbiological elements indicates that groundwater is easily reached by bacteria and viruses and other potentially toxic substances. Most of the water parameters, from wells and boreholes, exceed the water referenced values allowed for human consumption and agricultural use. The protection of the Nhartanda Valley aquifer system is necessary and urgent. The identification of the most vulnerable areas provides important information for groundwater management, such as the indication of protection measures in aquifer systems.

How to cite: Antunes, I. M. H. and Bande, A.: Management of groundwater sustainability and contamination - a Mozambique case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-910, 2021.

EGU21-2388 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Reducing the risk for contamination of river bank filtration systems using inverse modelling and anthopogenic traces

Miguel Angel Marazuela, Paulo Herrera, Klaus Erlmeier, Robert Brünjes, Philip Brunner, and Thilo Hofmann

Many drinking water systems worldwide are based on river bank filtration. From a quantitative point of view river bank filtration systems are highly reliable because of the high permeability of alluvial aquifers linked to high production rates. However, there might be an increased risk of contamination because of the short residence time between the river and the production well, especially during flood events.

Flood events change the river-aquifer hydraulic interactions and may increase infiltration rates (e.g., due to an increased hydraulic head, larger river infiltration widths, or erosion of a siltation layer). This leads to changes in groundwater flow paths and production wells might abstract water with a shorter residence time and lower quality. Groundwater quality may degrade during flood events due to the presence of undesirable chemicals (e.g., wastes water treatment plant overflow) and the occurrence of faecal indicator bacteria such as E.Coli.

Groundwater modelling can assist in developing strategies to protect river bank filtration from such undesired contamination by predicting optimal operation conditions. The key impediment of this approach is significant uncertainties in subsurface properties and the associated uncertainties of the groundwater flow paths. To reduce uncertainties in model predictions, anthropogenic tracers including the MRI contrast agent gadolinium and artificial sweeteners were used in this study. They revealed sources and flow patterns, and have been used to derive mixing ratios representing different temporal and spatial scales. Including anthropogenic tracers into the objective function of the calibration process also lead to more accurate estimation of groundwater flow paths. This was critical to predict the best water works operation strategy during flood events.

How to cite: Marazuela, M. A., Herrera, P., Erlmeier, K., Brünjes, R., Brunner, P., and Hofmann, T.: Reducing the risk for contamination of river bank filtration systems using inverse modelling and anthopogenic traces, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2388, 2021.

EGU21-12837 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Hydrogeochemical and nitrate isotopic indicators of vulnerability in the Katari-Lago Menor basin-aquifer, Lake Titicaca-Bolivia

Gabriela Patricia Flores Avilés, Céline Duwig, Elisa Sacchi, Lorenzo Spadini, Joel Savarino, and Oswaldo Eduardo Ramos Ramos

In the semi-arid Bolivian Altiplano, the Katari and Lago Menor Basin, ranging between 6000 and 3800 m a.s.l. in altitude, hosts a major aquifer in Quaternary sediments of fluvioglacial and paleolacustrine origin. This basin supports a population of over 1.2 million of inhabitants and the largest city in the Altiplano, El Alto, one of the Latin America’s fastest growing cities in the 1980s. This rapid urban growth was accompanied by minimal land planning, and lack of basic infrastructure and environmental policies. In addition, the region is greatly affected by climate change, causing the glaciers to shrink. A multi-tracer approach was used to understand the main hydrogeochemical processes taking place along the groundwater flow, and to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality and nitrate concentrations. In the upper part of the aquifer (above 4000m), in the Piedmont subsystem, siliciclastic and evaporitic rocks host groundwater of high quality. Here, groundwater chemistry is dominated by silicate weathering leading to a Ca(Mg)-HCO3 facies, low nitrate concentrations (<3.2 mgL-1), and low mineralization. At lower altitude, the anthropogenic impact is revealed by the increase in NO3- concentrations, reaching up to 35.6 mg L-1.  Nitrate stable isotopes allowed discriminating three main nitrate contributions:  leaching from areas influenced by manure piles, use of synthetic N fertilizers, and leakage from sewage collection pipes. Natural attenuation of nitrate occurs when fresh groundwater mixes with brackish groundwater of evaporitic origin. On the other hand, in the lacustrine plain (~3860 to 3810 m a.s.l), the groundwater geochemistry is dominated by evaporite dissolution and calcite precipitation, while nitrate originates from nitrification of synthetic fertilizers. This first hydrogeochemical study of one of the major groundwater systems in the Northern Altiplano is an important step towards a better management of this crucial water resource for the sustainable development of this region.

Fundings :

The present study was undertaken with the financial support of the Plurinational State of Bolivia provided through the Program “100 Scholarships for Postgraduate Education within the Framework of Technological and Scientific Sovereignty”, Supreme Decree 2100 (1 September 2014), and partly funded by LABEX OSUG@2020, ANR grant no.ANR-10-LABX-56 (financed by the Future Investments programme launched by the French government and implemented by the ANR).

How to cite: Flores Avilés, G. P., Duwig, C., Sacchi, E., Spadini, L., Savarino, J., and Ramos Ramos, O. E.: Hydrogeochemical and nitrate isotopic indicators of vulnerability in the Katari-Lago Menor basin-aquifer, Lake Titicaca-Bolivia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12837, 2021.

EGU21-8712 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Vulnerability Assessment of Shallow Aquifers in Abuja using GIS and Hydrogeological Parameters

Mary Etuk, Igwe Ogbonnaya, Stefano Viaroli, Riccardo Petrini, and Viviana Re

One of the major challenges for the sustainable development of the federal capital territory of Abuja (Nigeria) is related to the access to safe fresh water resources. This area lies within the drought prone parts of the Sahel region. As in many regions of the world there has been growing competing demands for fresh water as a result of population growth and groundwater quality degradation. In this context, the paucity of data and in depth knowledge of aquifer features and groundwater flow makes groundwater management even more complex, with a severe impact on access to safe water resources for the local populations. To address this challenge, the purpose of the presented research is to generate information on aquifer settings and its vulnerability and on the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the available groundwater resources. Remote sensing and GIS were applied to improve the available information on groundwater resources of Abuja. Fundamental information such as recharge rate, availability and vulnerability of groundwater to pollution was determined. Aquifer vulnerability zones were delineated using the DRASTIC model by integrating layers of depth to groundwater, aquifer recharge, aquifer media, soil type, topography, impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity.  The study area covers about 8000km². The elevation ranges from 62 to 843m a.s.l. with the highest elevations at the North Eastern parts and the lowest elevations at the South Western parts of the study area. There are three soil types in the area, the silty clay, silt loam and clay with clay being the predominant soil type. The five major rock types in the area include migmatite gneiss, schist and metasediment, sandstone and river alluvium, granite and quartzite. The aquifer type is phreatic and the depth to groundwater ranges from 2.8 to 21.9 m. The high recharge areas occurred mostly in highly fractured areas covered with metasedimentary rocks, migmatite gneiss and sandstones. The groundwater vulnerability zones in the study area were grouped into four classes: High, moderate, low and very low. The highly vulnerable zones are the North Eastern parts of the study area covering most parts of Bwari and parts of the municipal council areas and also the Southern parts of the study area covering parts of Kuje and Abaji. They constitute the highly fractured areas covered with silt loam soil type. The very low vulnerable zones are the North Western and Central parts covering mostly Gwgwalada and Kwali areas.  This study demonstrates that GIS and remote sensing techniques are efficient and cost effective tool for delineation of groundwater vulnerability zones. The information obtained will be used as a basis for a geochemical characterization of groundwater quality in the region with the overall goal of supporting new groundwater management plans in the region.

 

How to cite: Etuk, M., Ogbonnaya, I., Viaroli, S., Petrini, R., and Re, V.: Vulnerability Assessment of Shallow Aquifers in Abuja using GIS and Hydrogeological Parameters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8712, 2021.

EGU21-2106 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Hydrogeological and hydrochemical characterization to assess wells vulnerability in the scope of Water Safety Plans, a case study in Northern Italy.

Chiara Zanotti, Marco Rotiroti, Letizia Fumagalli, Mariachiara Caschetto, Davide Sartirana, and Tullia Bonomi

Groundwater is a key resource to fulfil human drinking needs worldwide. Therefore, guaranteeing a safe and constant supply of drinking water to the public has been an important focus at European level. Recently, the EU approach to drinking water monitoring radically changed, moving from the simple water quality monitoring, toward a more comprehensive risk assessment, involving the whole supply chain from collection to distribution. Particularly, EU Directives 2015/1787 and 2020/2184 endorsed the Water Safety Plan (WSP) system which requires a detailed assessment of every possible dangerous event.

Groundwater extraction constitutes the first step of the supply chain, and therefore the most vital. In this work, an approach to assess groundwater wells vulnerability in the scope of WSP is proposed, considering natural and anthropogenic hazards, through a hydrogeological, hydrochemical and hydrodynamical characterization. The study area is the Lake Iseo morainic amphitheatre (ca. 180 km2) in the Brescia province, Northern Italy. Particularly, 17 wells have been analyzed, serving 4 municipalities.

Two main dangerous events have been considered as possible hazard for the collected groundwater: a) anthropogenic impact from the surface, related to the land use, and b) natural contamination by reduced species consequent to the degradation of natural organic matter.

Groundwater extraction vulnerability to these two dangerous events has been assessed, considering several hydrogeological aspects: a) the kind of the exploited aquifer (shallow, confined, semiconfined), b) groundwater depth for the shallow aquifers, c) permeability of the vadose zone for the shallow aquifers and d) red-ox conditions of the collected groundwater.

To assess these parameters, lithostratigraphic, chemical and piezometric data were analyzed, reaching a deep understanding of the system by characterizing the different exploited groundwater bodies from a hydrogeological, hydrochemical and hydrodynamic point of view.

Hydrogeological sections were elaborated, covering the whole amphitheater, 7 in the N-S direction and 7 in the W-E direction. The interpretation of these sections allowed to identify the distribution of the main aquifer bodies and the relationships between the various hydrogeological units. To evaluate the red-ox conditions and perform groundwater quality characterization, chemical data were analyzed, including major ions and red-ox sensitive species, through boxplot and statistical analysis. Furthermore, piezometric levels were analyzed to identify groundwater depth, flow directions and watersheds. Of the 17 wells, one resulted to be confined with reducing conditions. Among the remaining, 7 are semiconfined while 9 are shallow, with oxidizing conditions in both cases. Concerning groundwater depth, 13 present values above 40 m, 2 between 20 m and 40 m, and 1 below 20 m. As regards the vadose zone permeability, 9 present high permeability, 7 medium. Totally, in terms of vulnerability to anthropic impacts, one well has low vulnerability, 9 medium and 6 high, while in terms of vulnerability to natural contamination one well has high vulnerability and the remaining low.

This approach allowed a deep understanding of the system and constitutes a reproducible methodology to assess groundwater wells vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic contaminations.

Funding: this work was supported and carried out in cooperation with Acque Bresciane, water supplier.

How to cite: Zanotti, C., Rotiroti, M., Fumagalli, L., Caschetto, M., Sartirana, D., and Bonomi, T.: Hydrogeological and hydrochemical characterization to assess wells vulnerability in the scope of Water Safety Plans, a case study in Northern Italy., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2106, 2021.

EGU21-16366 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Multiple DNA-tracer transport approach for determining aquifer matrix properties in a laboratory 3D aquifer sand tank: a methodical perspective

Swagatam Chakraborty, Chamath Arachchilage, Rayan Hamza Mohamed Elhaj, Jan Willem Foppen, Thom Bogaard, and Jack Schijven

Use of environmental or artificial tracers has been an effective approach to characterize groundwater flow and solute transport, tracking pollutant migration and determine travel time. However, availability of a distinctive number of tracers, variability in interaction with the aquifer matrix, and analytical detection limits are namely few of the significant concerns to be addressed and which led us to focus on employing novel DNA tracers.

Besides the quality of being unique, improbably prevalent in nature and environmentally friendly, DNA tracers can be synthesized virtually in infinite numbers of distinct sequences, rendering them a potential candidate for multi-tracer applications for subsurface and groundwater flow characterization. Studies have already demonstrated the potential of DNA tracing in groundwater studies but a blueprint for methodical application and analysis is required.

In this study, we investigate the applicability of DNA tracers in determining hydraulic parameters of a natural aquifer, such as, hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, dispersivity, and travel time, the most significant characters of a matrix, influencing solute or pollutant transport. In addition, we aim to leverage the applicability of the tracers in terms of minimizing the uncertainty in estimating the parameters.

In order to capitalize on these advantages of DNA tracers with the aim of addressing the aforementioned objectives, this research focuses on employing multiple dsDNA (ds=double stranded) tracers in a 1.3 m long three-dimensional sand-filled aquifer tank. Under forced-gradient water flow conditions, distinctly sequenced, monodispersed dsDNA tracers are instantaneously injected through injection wells, taking into account different scenarios. The scenarios consider different configurations of injection and sampling strategies. Samples collected periodically were subjected to quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for DNA concentration estimation. All the silica-encapsulated DNA particles were comparable in size and surface properties.

Individual breakthrough curves from each of the scenarios are carefully analysed for determining water flow and hydraulic properties. In addition, the experiments producing multiple breakthrough curves are cumulatively analysed for obtaining a minimal uncertainty for the parameter estimations.

How to cite: Chakraborty, S., Arachchilage, C., Elhaj, R. H. M., Foppen, J. W., Bogaard, T., and Schijven, J.: Multiple DNA-tracer transport approach for determining aquifer matrix properties in a laboratory 3D aquifer sand tank: a methodical perspective, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16366, 2021.

EGU21-3635 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Estimation of in-situ hydro-geomechanical properties using the groundwater responses to natural cyclical forcing

Timothy McMillan, Gabriel Rau, Wendy Timms, and Martin Andersen

EGU21-2517 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Heterogeneity of hydrogeological conceptual models in crystalline basement aquifers under equatorial climate: case study of French Guiana

Adrien Selles, Geoffrey Aertgeerts, Nicolas Brisset, and Maxime Lhotelin

Crystalline rocks aquifers are usually represented with a low porosity and hydraulic conductivity giving low well yields. Over the world, more than 880 millions people live on crystalline basement rocks. Thus, abilities to spot sufficient groundwater resource in these systems are crucial. Nevertheless, assessment of the sustainable reservoirs in crystalline basement aquifers is challenging. The well-admitted conceptual model presents a stratiform-weathered profile above a fractured zone showing a decreasing fracture density with depth. The interconnection between these two compartments defines the hydraulic parameters: the weathered profile is capacitive while the fractured zone is transmissive.

French Guiana is mostly composed of Paleoproterozoic rocks belonging to the Guiana Shield. It was formed during protracted periods of intense suprasubduction related magmatism, metamorphism and deformation, culminating with the Transamazonian orogeny, bracketed between 2.3 and 1.9 Ga. This peculiar geological history creates a large diversity of geological units from undeformed granitic units to ultramylonitized shears-zone related meta-volcano-sedimentary units and through brittle to ductile deformed units. Furthermore, over almost 200 Ma, the French Guiana recorded a deep weathering phase leading to heterogeneous and complex profiles up to 80-100 m deep. In such a context, hydrogeological exploration is thus puzzling, especially as French Guiana is covered by the Amazonian Forest, reducing direct observations.    

We use a multi-disciplinary method from remote sensing to field observations through geophysical tomography to propose conceptual models of groundwater circulation helping us to localise precisely (meter scale) exploration borewells. After 15 years of hydrogeological surveys, the BRGM has studied plural units: (i) classical isotropic unit (Mahury Massif (MM)) and Granitic unit (Mana), (ii) ductile to brittle deformed units separated by strike-slip fault (Rosebel-Bonidoro unit (RBU) and Armina Unit (AU)), (iii) ultramilonitized unit (Paramaca Unit (PU)). A large heterogeneity of hydrogeological conceptual models for each context arise from our results. Notwithstanding this diversity and thanks to these conceptualizations, we were able to propose successfully useable sustainable resources, confirming the robustness of the method.     

The MM and Mana are classical isotropic units displaying a deep weathered profile. The confined aquifer is located into the fractured layer with yield reaching 15 m3.h-1. Crosscutting dolerite dyke is attested to be an interesting hydrogeological target with yield near 20 m3.h-1. The highest yields in French Guiana for crystalline basement rocks (30 m3.h-1) are found in confined aquifer in PU context. This record could be due to the ultramylonitic deformation giving a high permeable unit. Three different places were studied for the AU (Sparouine, Roura, Beauséjour). As for the PU, aquifers are all confined. Yields are systematically low (around 2-5 m3.h-1). The RBU is an interesting and contrasting unit because it does not show developed weathered profile. It seems that an unconfined aquifer must probably recharge surroundings units (i.e. PU and AU).

This work highlights the high potential of ductile to ultramylonitic shear zones for groundwater resource. Taking together, these conceptual models highlight that, in French Guiana and probably in entire Guiana Shield, Transamazonian tectonometamorphic structures as well as early Jurassic extensive faults correspond to sustainable useable groundwater resources.

How to cite: Selles, A., Aertgeerts, G., Brisset, N., and Lhotelin, M.: Heterogeneity of hydrogeological conceptual models in crystalline basement aquifers under equatorial climate: case study of French Guiana, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2517, 2021.

EGU21-7444 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Remote sensing for assessment of groundwater resources, A case study of Stampriet Transboundary Aquifer

Irene Kinoti, Marc Leblanc, Albert Olioso, Maciek Lubczynski, and Angelique Poulain

Distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) are the most effective tools for estimating groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid areas characterized by thick unsaturated zone. It is also important to capture spatio-temporal aquifer dynamics by using real-time or near-real-time data, for sustainable water resources management. However, such data is often unavailable in developing countries where monitoring networks are scarce. In recent years, remote sensing has played an important role in providing spatio-temporal information for evaluation and management of water resources. Nevertheless, application of remote sensing in groundwater studies is still limited and has mainly focused on assessment of groundwater recharge and groundwater storage as well as to provide boundary conditions and driving forces for both standalone groundwater models and IHMs. This study entails application of remote sensing data in developing the distributed integrated hydrological model for Stampriet transboundary multi-layered aquifer system shared between Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. A numerical model has been set – up using MODFLOW 6 coupled with the Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF) Package where Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with stations (CHIRPS) rainfall data and Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) potential evapotranspiration data were implemented as the model driving forces. Other input data used include digital elevation model, and land-use/landcover and also soil datasets to define unsaturated zone parameters. The model has been calibrated with groundwater level measurements as the state variables in transient conditions at daily time step for a period of 16 years. The model-simulated unsaturated zone and groundwater storage was compared to GRACE-derived sub-surface storage anomaly, further also used to constrain the model. The calibrated model provides spatio-temporal water flux dynamics as well as water balances and hence an understanding of the groundwater-resource dynamics and replenishment. This information is shown useful for proper management of the transboundary water resource as well as for policy making.

How to cite: Kinoti, I., Leblanc, M., Olioso, A., Lubczynski, M., and Poulain, A.: Remote sensing for assessment of groundwater resources, A case study of Stampriet Transboundary Aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7444, 2021.

Imaging the extent of salt water intrusion in the Luy river coastal aquifer (Binh Thuan) using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT)

Diep Cong-Thi1,3, Linh Pham Dieu1,3, Robin Thibaut1, Marieke Paepen1, Hieu Huu Ho3,

Frédéric Nguyen2, Thomas Hermans1

 

1Department of Geology,Ghent University, 9000-Gent, Belgium

2 Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering,Liege University and Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, B- 4000 Liège and 3000 Leuven, Belgium

3 Department of Marine Geology, Vietnam Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (VIGMR), 100000 Hanoi, Vietnam

  ABSTRACT

Seawater intrusion has been one of the most concerning issues of the Vietnam South Central provinces in recent years, especially in the Binh Thuan province which is characterized by a hyper-arid climate. During the dry season extending from November to April, seawater intrudes through estuaries and threatens groundwater resources. The latter are under increasing pressure due to water extraction for agri- and aquaculture. To evaluate the current state of salinity in the shallow coastal aquifer, 21 electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements were collected along the downstream part of the Luy river based on the previous saltwater intrusion boundary which was estimated from water samples collected from shallow boreholes. The data were inverted to get the resistivity distribution of the subsurface and interpreted in terms of salinity. Comparison with well data shows that resistivity values below 6.5 Ohm.m correspond to the presence of saltwater in the aquifers. On the right bank of the river, a higher elevation dune area contains a freshwater aquifer which limits the intrusion of saltwater. On the left bank dominated by lowland areas, saline water fills almost the entire thickness of the aquifer, except locally for small thin freshwater lenses. At larger distances from the sea, the aquifer displays a complex distribution of fresh and saline lenses. Those variations seem to be correlated with the presence of clay lenses, recharge sources and irrigation practices. ERT data also reveals the depth of the rock basement. The geophysical observations show that the extension of saltwater intrusion is much larger and more complex than expected from existing borehole data and is not limited to interaction with the river.

KEYWORDS: saltwater intrusion, groundwater, electrical resistivity tomography, Luy river.  

*Corresponding Authors. Email: Diep.CongThi@UGent.be; Linh.PhamDieu@Ugent.be; robin.thibaut@ugent.be; marieke.paepen@ugent.be; hohuuhieu@yahoo.com; f.nguyen@uliege.be; thomas.hermans@ugent.be

How to cite: Diep, C.-T.: Imaging the extent of saltwater intrusion in the Luy river coastal aquifer (Binh Thuan) using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4960, 2021.

EGU21-3772 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Local natural background levels assessment through a groundwater redox zonation, the case of Lombardy Region.

Marco Rotiroti, Mariachiara Caschetto, Chiara Zanotti, Marco Parini, Giuseppa Cipriano, Tullia Bonomi, and Letizia Fumagalli

Discretizing anthropogenic and natural contaminations represents a crucial step in groundwater management and regulation. Natural background levels (NBLs) have a huge impact on groundwater protections and remediation strategies, but it is still an issue on the ground in terms of reliability and accuracy, thus its derivation needs further scientific efforts.

The derivation of local NBLs (LNBLs) is intended to overcome the limitation of considering a groundwater body (GWB) homogeneous, hence accounting hydrogeochemical heterogeneities within the aquifer system.

This work presents a statistical approach assessing LNBLs for sensitive redox species (As, Fe, Mn, NH4) in 30 GWBs within the Lombardy Region. Under the monitoring network of the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Lombardy (ARPA), more than 500 wells were investigated, thus each GWBs were identified within 4 aquifer types: shallow, intermediate, deep Po Plain aquifers and Alpine valley aquifers. The initial dataset underwent preselection and multivariate analyses, appointing at each well a geogenic redox zonation. It leaded to discretize geochemically-homogeneous subgroups and characterize them as function of site-specific natural facies: oxidised (293 wells), reduced (199 wells) and saline (11 wells). Interquartile range criteria, validations’ tests (Mann-Kendall and Shapiro-Wilk), probability density histograms and probability plots inferred temporally and spatially the datasets, one for each target species, discretized for aquifer and natural facies appartenances. This resulted in the identification of the statistical distributions from redox-homogeneous sets of data from which the LNBLs were derived.

Considering the Po Plain aquifer (shallow, intermediate and deep), NBLs derivation for As revealed three subgroups within the oxidised facies, for which the NBLs values are of 2, 3 and 7 μg/L, four subgroups ascribe to the reduced facies with NBLs of 13, 49, 71 and 291 μg/L, and two subgroups for the saline facies with NBLs of 3 and 12 μg/L. According Fe, two are the subgroups within the oxidised facies, with NBLs of 40 and 94 μg/L, four subgroups fall in the reduced facies with NBLs of 653, 1430, 3200 and 6000 μg/L; within the saline facies, two subgroups are identified with NBLs of 1647 and 6000 μg/L. Two subgroups characterize the oxidised facies for NBLs of Mn with values of 8 and 27 μg/L, and NBLs of 34, 216, 485, 912 and 1514 μg/L refer to five subgroups in reduced facies, while within the saline facies fall two subgroups with NBLs of 381 and 921 μg/L. With regards to NH4, NBLs reach values of 49, 110 and 190 μg/L for the three subgroups within the oxidised facies, whereas values of 834, 2600, 3090, 4480 μg/L are derived for the four subgroups in the reduced facies; the two subgroups ascribed to the saline facies reveal NBLs of 1860 and 6620 μg/L.

Data demonstrate how an in depth understanding of aquifers’ redox-zonations turned out to be functional for assessing LNBLs. Regional Legislation (D.G.R. 23novembre2020 n.3903) has been amended on the basis of the outcomes of this work, revealing site redox-specific LNBLs of practical significance.

 

Funding: this work was granted and carried out in collaboration with Lombardy Region.

How to cite: Rotiroti, M., Caschetto, M., Zanotti, C., Parini, M., Cipriano, G., Bonomi, T., and Fumagalli, L.: Local natural background levels assessment through a groundwater redox zonation, the case of Lombardy Region., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3772, 2021.

EGU21-6642 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Establishment of groundwater baseline using end-member mixing analysis in the groundwater flow system approach

Susana Rodriguez Padilla, Selene Olea Olea, and Oscar Escolero Fuentes

The aim of this research is to establish the groundwater baseline in a sub-basin located in the southwest of Mexico City, an area affected by anthropogenic activities.

The methodology consists of groundwater sampling in 40 sites to measure major ions and physicochemical parameters as temperature, pH, Eh, and total dissolved solids. The end-member mixing analysis was applied using the groundwater flow system approach. The groundwater baseline was established using flow components that were defined.

The main results are: to found four groundwater flow components: 1) local, 2) intermediate, 3) cold regional, and 4) hot regional; to established a groundwater baselines; to relate the anomalous concentrations of nitrate and sulfate due to anthropogenic activities in the area; to associate the fertilizer use, wastewater, and the canal leaching black waters as the principal sources of these concentrations.

The conclusions show the importance to use the groundwater flow system approach to differentiate natural processes as hydrochemical evolution due to water-rock interaction of the anthropogenic influence. In the context where groundwater is extracted without knowing its baseline and the anthropological implications, the groundwater flow system approach to permit generated best management and administration strategies.

How to cite: Rodriguez Padilla, S., Olea Olea, S., and Escolero Fuentes, O.: Establishment of groundwater baseline using end-member mixing analysis in the groundwater flow system approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6642, 2021.

EGU21-10261 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

The fundamental role of environmental isotopes in the characterization of landfill impact on groundwater

Elisabetta Preziosi, Eleonora Frollini, Daniele Parrone, Pasquale Manara, and Stefano Ghergo

Weathering and erosion of asbestos-bearing rocks, such as meta-ophiolites (e.g. serpentinite rocks and metabasites), is the principal natural cause of asbestos water dispersion in Naturally Occurring Asbestos (NOA) rich settings. Water pollution by asbestos may occur as a consequence of superficial and groundwater flow through natural rock formations with NOA, depending on several characteristics of either the rocks (e.g. mineralogical composition, fracture grade) and hence the water (e.g. pH, speed).

Given the importance of groundwater resources for both drinking water and agricultural and industrial activities, groundwater asbestos pollution represents an environmental problem and could even constitute a risk for human health. In fact, waterborne asbestos can come into contact with human beings as airborne fibres after water vaporization, or by ingestion, especially if they are present in drinking water. While a lot is known about diseases caused by airborne asbestos respiration, not enough has been yet understood about potential noxiousness of its ingestion. For this reason, the necessity to set a Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for asbestos in potentially usable water is still debated.

As the North-Western and Central Alps are rich in NOA and also in naturally occurring asbestiform minerals non-asbestos classified, it’s essential to understand if, how and which type of mineral fibres can eventually be released into water and to correlate them to the geolithological and hydrogeological characteristics of the area.

The results of a surface water and groundwater sampling and analysis campaign, settled in the North-Western Alps, will be presented. The main aim is to investigate the principal aspects related to asbestos and asbestiform fibres presence in water, in particular their natural occurrence in groundwater, linked to hydrological and geolithological characteristics of the reservoir. Furthermore, laboratory test to study the flow of polluted water through a packed column will be designed and observations on the methodology to evaluate waterborne mineral fibres behaviour into porous media will be presented.

These data are fundamental to monitor asbestos (and asbestiform) fibres transportation due to water flowing into NOA and to better understand the relationship among geology, hydrogeology and mineral fibres presence in water.

How to cite: Avataneo, C., Belluso, E., Capella, S., Lasagna, M., and De Luca, D. A.: Groundwater flow in Naturally Occurring Asbestos (NOA) rich settings: new findings on the relation among concentration, types and mobility of mineral fibres, and geological characteristics of aquifer formations., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3414, 2021.

EGU21-14896 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Karst evolution, hydrocarbon and geothermal resources in flow system context (South Hungary)

Katalin Csondor, Lehel Csobaji, Brigitta Zentai-Czauner, Orsolya Győri, and Anita Erőss

In South Transdanubia (Hungary) there are remarkable geothermal and hydrocarbon resources. The area is also characterized by natural thermal water discharge at the boundary of outcropping carbonate hills and adjacent sedimentary basin. These regional discharge areas are favourable sites of hypogenic caves as well. These geofluid systems and groundwater related phenomena are usually investigated separately and their interactions are just neglected. The aim of this study is to give all these groundwater-related resources and phenomena a common framework applying the concept of regional hydraulic continuity, and to complete the basin-scale hydraulic assessment of the area based on preproduction archival measured data. Pressure-elevation profiles, tomographic fluid-potential maps and hydraulic cross-sections were constructed to determine the vertical and horizontal fluid-flow conditions. As a result, two kinds of fluid flow systems could be identified. Within the gravitational flow systems, horizontal flow conditions are dominant and the regional flow direction tends toward the S–SE. In deeper basin regions, an overpressured flow system is prevalent, where fluids are driven laterally from the deeper sub-basins towards their margins. Based on the regional-scale evaluation of fluid flow systems, conclusions could be drawn regarding the geothermal and hydrocarbon potential of the area. Additionally, local-scale phenomena could be explained, and the study emphasizes that knowledge on regional groundwater flow systems is essential to understand local scale groundwater-related phenomena such as recent cave formation in an area. A comparison with the marginal Buda Thermal Karst area allows for generalized conclusions regarding the connections between marginal karst reservoirs and the Pannonian Basin. Furthermore, the results of the study can be directly applied in the exploration and sustainable utilization of groundwater related resources, such as thermal waters and hydrocarbons.

This topic is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 810980. The National Research, Development and Innovation Fund has provided financial support to the research under the grant agreement no. PD 116227.

How to cite: Csondor, K., Csobaji, L., Zentai-Czauner, B., Győri, O., and Erőss, A.: Karst evolution, hydrocarbon and geothermal resources in flow system context (South Hungary), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14896, 2021.

EGU21-4932 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Using natural gas emission monitoring to assess the hydrogeological mineral springs genesis in non-active zone: example from the Corsica Island

Dupuy Margaux, Garel Emilie, Labasque Thierry, Chatton Eliot, Vergnaud Virginie, Aquilina Luc, Santoni Sebastien, Mattei Alexandra, and Huneau Frédéric

Deep groundwater circulation increases multiplicity and complexity of groundwater pathways providing a high diversity of intrinsic water properties. Water-rock interactions at depth associated with transit time disparities generate singular mineralisation with high temperature, notable dissolved ions and significant gaseous content. As shown in literature, deep processes involved in gas release can be deduced from fluid gas composition collected at the surface. Widely used as tracers in volcanic areas, seismically- and tectonically-active regions, the gaseous emission monitoring is underused to understand the regional and local groundwater flow patterns that are not linked to an active zone. In order to refine knowledge on complex flow organisation at the origin of diversified mineral springs, this study aims to experiment the use of dissolved gaseous components as a tracer of water up flows interactions.

The oriental plain of Corsica (France) has been chosen for its wide variety of mineral waters (22 springs) emerging at the interface of magmatic (Hercynian orogenesis), metamorphic (Alpine orogenesis) and sedimentary rocks (from the Alpine orogenesis and from Neogene deposits). Dissolved reactive (N2, CO2, CH4, H2S, H2, O2) and noble gases (Ne, Ar, He) on 9 springs have been quarterly sampled (April, July, September & December 2018), and analysed by gas chromatography (µGC).

The first results highlight 3 very contrasted gas abundances:

  • (1) N2-rich thermal waters (54°C), poorly mineralised, with noble gas occurrence as cortege gases. This highlights the influence of deep flow with a long groundwater residence time.
  • (2) CO2-rich cold waters (<20°C), low to highly mineralised, with N2 as cortege gase. This highlights the occurence of deep flow interacting during his upflow with carbonates of metamophosed rocks.
  • (3) CH4-rich cold waters (<20°C), highly mineralised, with H2S and CO2 as cortege gases. This highlights biotic anaerobic activity involvement in gases composition of the mineral waters.

Then, based on the observed abundance of noble gases, theoretical recharge conditions were computed to defined recharge temperature, air- and He-excess. Computation results have stressed out the common origin of these three gas, depending on flow paths, reservoir conditions, biotic and abiotic interaction involvement. The circulation within magmatic reservoir is responsible for the deep N2-rich flow, which shows during his up flow abiotic interactions with metamorphised carbonates rocks, increasing the CO2 content in water. Then under anoxic geological confinement in deep sedimentary layers, the CO2 is reduced into CH4 and N2 into NH4. In the shallowest sedimentary layers, CH4 formed is degraded, due to the occurrence of rich-organic matter lithology, by biotic activity into H2S.

This monitoring substantially contributes to improving the complex hydrogeological model of Corsican mineral springs, highlighting the link between deep regional and local groundwater flow; whose even of the non-conventional tools doesn’t succeed in clearly testified about the deep escape mechanisms of natural fluids in this non-volcanic regions. In absence of current volcanism, seismic- or tectonic-activity, monitoring the dissolved gases releasing at the surface by thermo-mineral springs provides fundamental information about deep and complex flow paths.

How to cite: Margaux, D., Emilie, G., Thierry, L., Eliot, C., Virginie, V., Luc, A., Sebastien, S., Alexandra, M., and Frédéric, H.: Using natural gas emission monitoring to assess the hydrogeological mineral springs genesis in non-active zone: example from the Corsica Island, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4932, 2021.

EGU21-7079 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Long-lived Radioactive Elements and REE as Fingerprints of Deep Groundwater Flow

Marina Ćuk Đurović, Maja Todorović, Igor Jemcov, and Petar Papić

Groundwater originating from great depths provide a valuable geochemical sampling medium for exploring the development of the Earth's crust, geological, and hydrogeological resources. This particularly applies to sites of natural springs, where favorable hydrogeological conditions enabled regional discharge. Despite the numerous occurrences of mineral and thermal waters in Serbia, the current understanding of the regional groundwater flow is associated with many open questions that need to be addressed. From a geological standpoint, Serbia is part of the Alpine-Mediterranean mountain belt. From the middle of the Mesozoic to the present, this area underwent processes of subduction, collision, and extensions with accompanying voluminous magmatism and volcanism. As a result of the mentioned geodynamic events, the Serbian territory was a zone of intensive tectonomagmatic processes which had a significant impact on the formation of the hydrogeological structures for forming groundwater enriched with specific elements and elevated temperatures.

Understanding groundwater origin and characterization of a deep circulation is a big challenge since the groundwater pathways and aqueous chemistry are significantly influenced by various factors. To contribute to the characterization of the hydrogeological systems in which the mineral and thermal waters of Serbia are formed, a general hydrochemical study was conducted. During this research 190 of the most significant sources of mineral and thermal waters were sampled, belonging to different geological (geotectonic) units all over Serbia. The applied hydrochemical approach of recognition of deep circulation patterns is based on an analysis of rare earth elements (REE) and natural radioactivity. REE and long-lived radionuclides 40K, 238U, 232Th, 226,228Ra, gross alpha, and beta radioactivity, have proven to be significant fingerprints of water-rock interaction as well as groundwater flow tracers.

The integrated approach of the hydrogeochemical analysis and multivariate statistical method, including spatial mapping of obtained results, was an important process for meaningful interpretation of the data set. The applied approach summarized the complex hydrochemical properties on a general level defining specific hydrochemical fingerprints of hydrogeological systems with distinct geochemical characteristics and flow patterns. Geochemical behavior of natural tracers (REE) and radioactivity contributed to further characterization of deep hydrogeological systems in basins structures, hard rocks (igneous and metamorphic rocks), as well as carbonate environments.

Rare-earth element data (including abundances and fractionation patterns along with anomalies of Ce and Eu and interelement ratios), relationships of U and Th as elements with different geochemical behavior, and the content of Ra in groundwaters have been singled out as important indicators of deep hydrogeological systems. The results showed that the isolated regional hydrogeological systems are in the function of significant tectonic structures/dislocations, but also hydrogeological characteristics and circulation conditions. Further use of the proposed methodology will provide important data from the assessment of the origin of hydro-geofluids in Serbia and contribute to the wider picture in the understanding of the hydrogeological evolution of regional groundwater flow.

Keywords: natural radioactivity, rare earth elements, hydrogeochemical fingerprints, regional groundwater flow

How to cite: Ćuk Đurović, M., Todorović, M., Jemcov, I., and Papić, P.: Long-lived Radioactive Elements and REE as Fingerprints of Deep Groundwater Flow, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7079, 2021.

EGU21-1015 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Characteristics of Rainfall- Groundwater Level Response in Taipei City, Taiwan

Shih-Kai Chen, Yuan-Jie Lin, and Yuan-Yu Lee

The Taipei Basin, Taiwan has been densely populated and highly economically developed in recent decades. Global climate change has led to frequently flooding and drought events in recent years, formulating suitable measures to mitigate climatic disaster has become a crucial issue in this city. The sponge city concept is one of the most important options for disaster mitigation in highly urbanization areas. However, the city is also potentially threatened by soil liquefaction due to its sedimentary geology and increasing groundwater level. High groundwater level might be a key limiting factor in the promotion of sponge city. The aim of this study was to understand the relationship between rainfall and groundwater level and the impacts of cumulative rainfall, depth to groundwater table, and impervious pavement ratio on the rainfall/groundwater level response in study area. The cross-correlation function (CCF) was applied to analyze the correlation between rainfall and groundwater level data obtained from 20 observed wells and nearby rainfall gages during dry and wet seasons from 2012 to 2017. The significance groundwater recharge response can be found in 61% and 37% of the observation wells during the wet and dry seasons, respectively. Compared with the factors such as cumulative rainfall, and depth to groundwater table, the ratio of surface impervious pavement is the primary affecting factor behind the correlation between rainfall and groundwater level response. The analysis results also show the areas with shallow groundwater level, high imperious pavement ratio, and the groundwater level with no significant response to rainfall, are almost overlapped with the middle and high level liquefaction potential areas in this city. Measures such as the application of the sponge city concept to increase infiltration should be carefully reevaluated in this city. The research results can provide a reference for the future development of urban water resources management and disaster mitigation strategies under the challenge of globe climate change.

How to cite: Chen, S.-K., Lin, Y.-J., and Lee, Y.-Y.: Characteristics of Rainfall- Groundwater Level Response in Taipei City, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1015, 2021.

Baseflow, referred to as the groundwater discharge, is essential to investigate the groundwater system. A common and classic approach to study baseflow is recession analysis method, but current methods confuse the concept of streamflow recessions and baseflow recessions. This confusion leads to a mixing effect of the fluxes from different storage components and theoretically inconsistent recession analysis results accordingly. Therefore, it motivates an improvement and enhanced scientific understanding of the empirically derived baseflow recession characteristics.  In addition, quantifying baseflow from streamflow is defined as the baseflow separation problem. The state-of-the-art baseflow separation tools are in lack of physical rules and have either structural limitations or are inapplicable in regions with insufficient data, which confines the generalization performance. To overcome these issues, we applied a knowledge guided machine learning (KGML) approach to separate baseflow, which embeds physically derived baseflow recession characteristics in the traditional machine learning framework.

Recession parameter, which is derived from empirical recession analysis, has been observed to exceed its theoretical range on a recession event scale. Besides many potential environmental factors, we hypothesize that this well recognized inconsistency is because the quick flow from surficial water bodies has not been successfully excluded based on the recession selection criterion. We conduct recession analysis using both streamflow and baseflow over 1,000 gages across the continental United States. The baseflow was estimated from Eckhardt two-parameter digital filter and was calibrated against the in-stream field data. It was found that for gages whose calibration performance is satisfactory, the baseflow derived recession parameter agrees more consistently with the recession characteristics, which are indicated by the Boussinesq solutions.

Traditional baseflow separation tools partition streamflow into quick flow and base flow. Those tools have data scarcity issues and structural limitations without involving physical perspectives. To introduce physical rules into baseflow separation and overcome data scarcity issues, we apply a recession-based loss function to train the machine learning model such that the recession characteristics of separated baseflow agree with their theoretical behaviors. Guided by the recession knowledge of baseflow on a catchment scale, progress is being made to finalize this KGML implementation and to improve the baseflow separation approach.

How to cite: Li, X.: Evaluate recession characteristics from baseflow and separate baseflow via the knowledge guided machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3658, 2021.

In this study, we estimate the water balance components of a highly groundwater-dependent and hydrological data-scarce basin of the upper reaches of the Citarum river in West Java, Indonesia. Firstly, we estimate the groundwater abstraction volumes based on population size and a review of literature (0.57mm/day). Estimates of other components like rainfall, actual evaporation, discharge, and total water storage changes are derived from global datasets and are simulated using a distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model which yields additional estimates of discharge, actual evaporation, and total water storage change. We compare each basin water balance estimate as well as quantify the uncertainty of some of the components using the Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) method.

The ETC application on four different rainfall estimates suggests a preference of using the CHIRPS product as the input to the water balance components estimates as it delivers the highest r2  and the lowest RMSE compared to three other sources. From the different data sources and results of the distributed hydrological modeling using CHIRPS as rainfall forcing, we estimate a positive groundwater storage change between 0.12 mm/day - 0.60 mm/day. These results are in agreement with groundwater storage change estimates based upon GRACE gravimetric satellite data, averaged at 0.25 mm/day. The positive groundwater storage change suggests sufficient groundwater recharge occurs compensating for groundwater abstraction. This conclusion seems in agreement with the observation since 2005, although measured in different magnitudes. To validate and narrow the estimated ranges of the basin water storage changes, a devoted groundwater model is necessary to be developed. The result shall also aid in assessing the current and future basin-scale groundwater level changes to support operational water management and policy in the Upper Citarum basin.

How to cite: Rusli, S. R., Weerts, A., and Bense, V.: Estimating the water balance and uncertainty bounds in a highly groundwater-dependent and data-scarce areas: An example for the upper Citarum basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9943, 2021.

The monitoring data of spatial-temporal variation of groundwater properties (groundwater levels, hydrodynamic properties, chemical and isotopic characteristics, etc.), collected in different times and with different aims, are often scattered or missing. Moreover, a messy database generates huge amounts of data. Especially the handling of time as a fourth dimension usually requires terabytes of storage space. Therefore, an appropriate data collection, storage and management is required, that is a key concept for the 3D/4D GIS. The objective of this study is to produce a comprehensive data management model that optimizes the handling and storage of spatial-temporal data. The 3D / 4D hydrogeological geo-database with WebGIS implementation for the “Terra dei Fuochi” Campania (Italy), is capable of storing information relating to different parameters (groundwater levels, physical-chemical, isotopic characteristics, etc.) in the space and their variation over time.

Moreover, the model will be capable of handling various kinds of spatial-temporal applications. These include the proper handling of temporal variations (e.g. trends in nitrate pollution, decrease of groundwater levels, climate change effects, etc.) and spatial variation (delimitation of contaminated areas, areas with natural high levels of geogenic compounds, etc.) within a 4D model. The storage requirements will be reduced and spatial as well as spatial-temporal operations are accelerated significantly.

This model could also be used by land managers and restoration practitioners with little knowledge of groundwater, but still have an interest in the critical issues of groundwater, assisting the environmental managers in making decisions in environmental recovery projects.

A further development could be a mobile application providing the same results, enabling real time data in the field to be used in decision-making. That will provide a great opportunity for the knowledge advancement of the field of groundwater.

How to cite: Ducci, D. and Del Gaudio, E.: Design of a 3D/4D hydrogeologic geo-database: an application in the so-called “Terra dei Fuochi” area (Campania, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-835, 2021.

EGU21-659 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

A simple measurement device for groundwater flow velocity using inkjet-printed drawing paper

Koichi Yamamoto and Fumiya Ono

We have developed a single-dot paper disk type groundwater flow current meter (single-dot PDV), which is a measuring device that easily measures the groundwater flow velocity from the traces of dots printed on paper using dye ink as a tracer. Correction coefficient based on numerical calculation for the coefficient for converting the sensor-flow velocity to the Darcy flow velocity. The correction coefficient can be expressed by a linear function of the hydraulic conductivity, and the flow velocity can be calibrated by an arbitrary hydraulic conductivity. The measurement principle of PDV was that the ink on the paper disc elutes from the paper and moves in the permeable sponge. After that, it was clarified that tailing occurred by dyeing the ink on the drawing paper. The ink movement speed and the groundwater flow velocity are proportional, and it has been shown that it is appropriate to measure the groundwater flow velocity by the tailing length.

How to cite: Yamamoto, K. and Ono, F.: A simple measurement device for groundwater flow velocity using inkjet-printed drawing paper, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-659, 2021.

EGU21-3015 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Modeling saltwater intrusion with SUTRA 3.0 in Almonte-Marismas aquifer coast (Doñana Natural Space, Southern Spain). 

Carmen Serrano-Hidalgo, Ana Fernandez-Ayuso, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Javier Heredia-Diaz, and Francisco Javier Elorza-Tenreiro

 

The Almonte-Marismas aquifer is a multilayer alluvial groundwater body constituted of silts, sands and gravel of fluvial-deltaic and marine origin. It supports Doñana Natural Space (Southern of Spain). It is in direct hydraulic contact with the Atlantic Ocean to the Southwest. Nowadays, the aquifer is subjected to important losses in terms of regional groundwater resources caused by the excessive groundwater pumping for crop irrigation, as well as for tourism water supply in two coastal resorts. This fact causes a subsequent lowering of the phreatic head, and therefore, the water requirements of the ecosystems in this protected area.

Although up to date there is no evidence of saltwater intrusion in this area, there have been several studies warning that seawater advance through the deep layers would likely happen under the present exploitation pattern (Custodio, 1993). The aim of this study is to analyze the possible destabilization of the dynamic balance between the freshwater and saline water in the aquifer. This goal is assessed through numerical simulations of different seawater intrusion scenarios using a 2D model, where the density flow and solute transport model is considered using the SUTRA 3.0 package (Voss et al., 2002) of Modelmuse (Winston, 2014). This work enables the evaluation of the hydrodynamical conceptual model in the aquifer coast, the potential threat of seawater intrusion caused by coastal resort extractions and the consequences that it entails for the nearby natural environment.

Key issues: saltwater intrusion,2D model, SUTRA, Doñana, overexploitation.

 

References

Custodio E. 1993. Preliminary outlook of saltwater intrusion conditions in the Doñana National Park (Southern Spain). Study and Modelling of Saltwater Intrusion into Aquifers. Proceedings 12th Saltwater Intrusion Meeting, Barcelona, Nov. 1992. CIHS.CIMNE. Barcelona, 1993: 295-315.

Voss, C. I., and Provost, A.M., 2002 (Version of September 22, 2010), SUTRA, A model for saturated-unsaturated variable-density ground-water flow with solute or energy transport, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 02-4231, 291 p.

Winston, R.B., 2014, Modifications made to ModelMuse to add support for the Saturated-Unsaturated Transport model (SUTRA): U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chap. A49, 6 p., https://dx.doi.org/10.3133/tm6a49.

How to cite: Serrano-Hidalgo, C., Fernandez-Ayuso, A., Guardiola-Albert, C., Heredia-Diaz, J., and Elorza-Tenreiro, F. J.: Modeling saltwater intrusion with SUTRA 3.0 in Almonte-Marismas aquifer coast (Doñana Natural Space, Southern Spain). , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3015, 2021.

Demand for more sustainable aquifer management solution has exacerbated in view of the seawater intrusion occurring in coastal aquifers, particularly in arid areas, where surface water is not aplenty. Feasibility studies showed saline ground water pumping from within saltwater wedge, aiding in mitigation of seawater intrusion and thus re-freshening the aquifer. Such pumping from nearshore aquifer mostly draws water from the sea. The impact is pronounced for higher pumping rates, where the interface would be lowered and toe position get shifted towards seaward side. This implies that, the change in fluid motion may reduce the outflow through seepage face, which in turn affect the circulation of seawater within the wedge. In the present study, a standard test aquifer was simulated with finite difference model, SEAWAT, to know the effect of change in hydraulic gradient due to pumping, on seawater circulation. Saltwater circulation rates were calculated as the ratio between the total inflow across the seaside boundary to terrestrial freshwater flow.  The result demonstrated the shape of interface to resume a depressed conical form establishing a dispersed interface near the surrounding of saline groundwater well. This localized dispersion observed deduce the presence of weak density gradients between two fluids, hence reducing convective overturn. Performance analysis were carried out to infer the interaction between density dependent seawater circulation and change in hydraulic gradient for different pumping rates. This interaction needs to be known in advance before designing saline water pumping rates, as, significant transport of nutrients and contaminants occur within the saltwater wedge.

How to cite: Narayanan, D. and t i, E.: Impact of Saline Ground water Pumping on density dependent Seawater circulation in Coastal aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6961, 2021.

EGU21-16188 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

The effect of river regulation on the hydrological conditions of the aapa mire in a mining development site in Northern Finland

Susanne Åberg, Kirsti Korkka-Niemi, and Annika Åberg

Central Lapland Greenstone Belt is highly prospective for gold and Ni-Cu-PGE deposits. The study area in Sodankylä, in northern Finland, has been glaciated during last ice ages forming complex sedimentary succession with low conductivity till and highly variable sorted sediments, which hydraulic conductivity can be orders of magnitudes higher. The complex Quaternary sediments usually cover weathered/fractured bedrock, which is preserved due to weak glacial erosion and can host bedrock aquifers, as well. Rivers, lakes, streams and mires are common features in northern boreal and subarctic regions and their hydraulic interactions are usually poorly understood.

 

Planning of mining operations in such environments needs a detailed understanding of water balance and groundwater discharge and recharge patterns, which are linked to subsurface sediments. In baseline studies, present hydrogeology, hydrology and ecology of the development site has usually been studied intensively. However, main rivers in northern Finland have been regulated since the 1970s and surrounding environments are not in their natural stage. The understanding, how much the environments could have been changed due to the regulation, is needed.

 

The study area locates in the western part of Natura 2000 protected Viiankiaapa mire, which lies about 300 meters above high-graded Ni-Cu-PGE deposit. The regulated River Kitinen is running close to the western edge of the Viiankiaapa mire. The construction of the hydroelectric power plants and the regulation of the River Kitinen has changed the hydrology of the study area from the 1970s onwards. The Matarakoski power plant built in 1995 affected the study area most directly by ending the regular spring floods and rising the river stage.

 

The changes in the groundwater flow and recharge/discharge patterns were studied with 3D groundwater flow modelling with MODFLOW-NWT and flood modelling with HEC-RAS. Pre-regulation situation was compared to the present stage with two different groundwater flow models in order to understand how regulation of river has affected the groundwater recharge/discharge patterns and flow patterns of the mire. Flood modelling was used to simulate the pre-regulation flood distribution.

 

The regulation of the River Kitinen has affected the western part of Viiankiaapa mire by raising the water table and smoothing the hydraulic gradient towards the river leading to partial wetting of the mire. Annual water table variations decreased due to ending of the flooding and the regulation created a more stable hydrological environment in mire area.  The stabilization of the hydrological environment, as well as the rising of the water table, might have affected the distribution of habitats of endangered moss species Hamatocaulis vernicosus. The mire might have become more favourable for Hamatocaulis vernicosus, which is resistant to flooding and high water table. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding the interactions of surface water and groundwater and the present and pre-regulated stage of the river in order to assess the difference between the present and natural stage of the mire.

How to cite: Åberg, S., Korkka-Niemi, K., and Åberg, A.: The effect of river regulation on the hydrological conditions of the aapa mire in a mining development site in Northern Finland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16188, 2021.

A 3-D Model of Surface Water and Groundwater Interaction in the Central Passaic River

Basin, New Jersey.

 

Duke U. Ophori

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies

Montclair State University

Upper Montclair

New Jersey 0743

Ph: (973) 464 6238, Email: Ophorid@montclair.edu

 

Abstract

 

Hydrogeologists have believed, over the years, that the development of a groundwater basin results in increase in the basin’s groundwater recharge and decrease in discharge. This basin’s response to development is intricately tied with the natural recharge-discharge behavior of regional groundwater flow systems. A 3-D regional groundwater flow model is developed for the Central Passaic River Basin, New Jersey to evaluate its surface water-groundwater interactions. The models show that groundwater pumping increases recharge and decreases discharge in the basin. Groundwater-fed wetlands are reduced in size by groundwater pumping. These findings will enhance groundwater management in the basin.

How to cite: Ophori, D.: A 3-D Model of Surface Water and Groundwater Interaction in the Central Passaic River Basin, New Jersey., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13782, 2021.

EGU21-3035 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Monitoring data analysis and groundwater flow modelling at a former uranium mine in France

Pierre L'hermite, Valérie Plagnes, Anne Jost, Benoît Reile, Guillaume Kern, Michael Descostes, and Camille Chautard

Mining companies are responsible for after-mining and environmental monitoring to ensure that mining waters released in the environment meet environmental quality standards. Water treatment plants can be used to mitigate surface waters when impacts related to past mining activities is evidenced. Indeed, meteoric recharge through waste rocks and tailings stored on sites often creates Acid Mining Drainage (AMD) or metallic signature that can be transferred to rivers through groundwater flow.

We studied a former uranium mine in Bertholène, Aveyron (France), where tailings, covered by waste rock, are stored in a valley behind a waste rock dyke. Mining waters, coming from both tailing drainage and mine facilities (galleries and open pit mine), are collected to a water treatment plant before release in the environment, meeting the environmental standards. Groundwater flow modelling is required to understand and quantify the different sources of AMD and their fate. The objective of this study is to give new insights on flows to guide the potential additional remediation of the site by testing different management solutions. For this purpose, we have developed a 3D hydrogeological model (MODFLOW) for the entire watershed.

This work is divided into two parts. We first analysed all available climatic and hydrogeological data (precipitation, water level, surface water flow, electric conductivity) using auto-correlations, cross-correlations and water balance calculations. These data come from long-term monitoring (14 years) on 13 piezometers and 4 discharge points. Recent two-year daily monitoring of groundwater levels completes the data set and provides a better understanding of the dynamic of the hydrosystem after precipitation. There is a 5 to 10-day time lag between rainfall and increases in water level and flow rate. The analysis also concludes that flows in the tailings occur under unsaturated conditions and that the water level in the gneiss aquifer never reaches the tailings.

Steady-state modelling developed at the watershed scale confirms that water level does not reach the tailings and allows simulating the impact of different management scenarios. Particle tracking has also been used to identify hydrogeological sub-watersheds of interest, such as those of the former open pit mine or the tailings to compute their water balance.

How to cite: L'hermite, P., Plagnes, V., Jost, A., Reile, B., Kern, G., Descostes, M., and Chautard, C.: Monitoring data analysis and groundwater flow modelling at a former uranium mine in France, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3035, 2021.

Groundwater plays an active role in certain geologic processes that has been recognized in numerous subdisciplines for a long time. According to Toth (1963, 2009), gravity-driven regional groundwater flow is induced by elevation differences in the water table and its pattern is self-organized into hierarchical sets of local, intermediate and regional flow systems.  Convergence of two flow systems results in a stagnant zone called hydraulic trap which is under the discharge area, and diverge of two flow systems results in a stagnant zone called quasi-stagnant zone which is under the water divide. These stagnant zones have been found to be critical to accumulation of transported mineral matter. Based on analytical and numerical solutions, some researchers reported that the local stagnant point or zone that are located under the local counter directional flow system. There is a question that whether hydraulic trap and quasi-stagnant zone is separate or integrate, and whether they are located under the discharge area or water divide or counter directional flow systems.

In this study, two-dimensional numerical cross-sectional model is used to investigate the effect of climate change on local stagnant zones and whether the hydraulic trap and quasi-stagnant zone is separate or integrate. Considering the climate change of basin and the change of rainfall infiltration intensity, a flux upper boundary is used to simulate the rainfall recharge. Then a synthetic homogeneous sandbox with three potential sinks is used to validate the evolution of the hierarchical nested groundwater flow systems considering different rainfall infiltration intensity. Salt tracer test is used to investigate the effect of stagnant zones on solute transport.

According to numerical results, we concluded that the hydraulic traps and quasi-stagnant are possible to be separate only for simple local systems and the two local stagnant zones are located on two sides of the counter directional flow system. When nested flow systems occur, such as local-intermediate, local-intermediate-local, local-regional, the local hydraulic traps and quasi-stagnant zones are always integrated under the local counter directional flow systems. Laboratory results show that when the rainfall infiltration intensity reduce, the groundwater flow pattern will change and the penetration depth and scope of counter directional local flow system will decrease. The corresponding local stagnant zone will slowly be closing to the discharge area of that counter directional local flow system. Salt tracer tests show that there are obvious non-fickian phenomenon in the local stagnant zones in hierarchically nested flow systems even in the homogeneous aquifer.

How to cite: Sun, R., Jiang, L., Liang, X., and Jin, M.: The evolution and non-fickian flow of local stagnant zones in hierarchically nested groundwater flow system under different rainfall infiltration intensity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3929, 2021.

EGU21-7083 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Groundwater flow pattern and age distribution under transient conditions

Menggui Jin, Yan Li, Jiale Wang, and Xing Liang

The distribution of groundwater ages under transient conditions are investigated by a numerical model coupled groundwater flow and age, and the nested pattern of groundwater flow are determined by the probability density function of residence time. The variation of local groundwater flow system to the fluctuation of upper boundary head evolves rapidly. During the process from the initial steady to the unsteady state, the groundwater age field evolves with simulation time and gradually reaches a new dynamic equilibrium after about 50 years. The age abrupt interface between the local and intermediate flow systems gradually shifts upward, and the scale of the local flow system gradually decreases. The groundwater ages of the regional and intermediate flow systems are mainly controlled by the long-term dynamic component of the upper boundary head, while the local flow systems are mainly influenced by the transient periodic fluctuation. The location of the stagnation points are mainly controlled by the upper boundary head. The larger head difference between recharge and discharge area is, the greater penetrated depth of the stagnation point is. The location of the stagnation point indicates the penetrated depth of the local flow system. The larger head fluctuates, the deeper stagnation point is, leading to a greater penetration depth of the local flow system. Molecular dispersion causes the scatters of residence time probability density function to aggregate near the inflection point, and the aggregation area mainly locates at the junction of basin-scale flow systems. The transition of groundwater flow field will intensify the mixing of old and new water, leading to the blurring or even disappearance of the residence time abrupt interface. The dispersion of groundwater mixing is poor in steady state, and the convective-dispersive effect gradually increases with time in unsteady state. Traditional hydraulics methods based on flow nets and stagnation points can effectively identify the groundwater flow system, but the differences in groundwater chemical characteristics and ages at long-term scales cannot be clearly described by these methods, as well as the evolution of groundwater flow system at long time scale. The groundwater residence time distribution expressed by the probability density function, which comprehensively involves the spatial and temporal information of groundwater interaction, can help accurately distinguish different groundwater flow systems at long time scales. The methods proposed in this study will act as a meaningful guidance for the delineation of groundwater flow system in the real world.

How to cite: Jin, M., Li, Y., Wang, J., and Liang, X.: Groundwater flow pattern and age distribution under transient conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7083, 2021.

Most Wadi systems of the world are threatened by climate change and unsustainable consumption through different water use systems (WUS) which can result in an alteration of the hydrologic regime, a deterioration of water resources, and their valuable ecosystems. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change and growing water demand on the alteration of the Halilrood River’s flow regime and the associated impacts on the ecosystem of the Jazmorian wetland in central Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the flow regime of the near and far future (2030-2059 and 2070-2099). Based on 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) in conjunction with the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) alterations in the flow regime are evaluated. Impacts of three scenarios for future water use (No-, Constant-, and Projected-WUS) are assessed. No-WUS assumes pristine conditions in the future when no water use system are included in the model (no demand) and we only account for the impact of climate change; Constant-WUS assumes unaltered groundwater demand in the future; and Projected-WUS corresponds to the increases in the number of water use systems in the future (increasing demand). Flow regime alteration assessment indicates that climate change will severely affect the magnitude of monthly and annual extreme flows, frequency and duration of high and low Pulses in the Halilrood Basin, especially in the far future. The comparison of model simulations under different scenarios shows that the impact of climate change was more intense when growing water demand in the future is taken into account. The result of the RVA test indicates moderate and high level of changes for 18 indicators, thus likely affecting the environmental flows required for the health of the downstream wetland.

How to cite: Mahmoodi, N., Kiesel, J., Wagner, P., and Fohrer, N.: Assessing the hydrologic regime alteration of a Wadi system as a proxy on initial ecological responses to climate change and growing water demand, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-580, 2021.

EGU21-13860 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.1

Advances and next steps exploring the role of groundwater storage in watershed variability across spatial scales

Laura Condon

HS8.2.2 – How to assess climate change impacts on groundwater?

EGU21-9379 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Long-term monitoring of coastal saltwater intrusion using the geoelectrical monitoring system SAMOS

Michael Grinat, Mathias Ronczka, Thomas Günther, Dieter Epping, Vitali Kipke, and Mike Mueller-Petke

Efficient groundwater management is the key to a sustainable use of freshwater aquifers. In the coastal areas worldwide, saltwater intrusions caused by sea-level rise, overuse of freshwater resources and changing groundwater recharge is a major threat to the availability of freshwater. A reduced groundwater recharge combined with an increased extraction can lead to vertical upconing or lateral movement of the freshwater-saltwater transition zones, therefore reducing the local freshwater resources. Long-term and continuous observation of the freshwater-saltwater transition zones is crucial to implement early warning procedures, yields more detailed insight into the groundwater system and therefore enables early adjustment and adaptation of extraction rates if needed.

The SAltwater MOnitoring System (SAMOS) consists of two main parts: a vertical electrode chain of steel ring electrodes permanently installed in a backfilled borehole and a measuring system at the surface. The number of electrodes (commonly about 80) and distance between adjacent electrodes (commonly about 25 cm) is generally flexible. The chain of electrodes is connected to a lightweight and small resistivity meter (LGM, 4-Point light 10W). Thanks to the maximum output current of 100 mA and a voltage of 380 V a low power consumption is achieved and long-term and autonomous monitoring is enabled by solar panel based power supply. Furthermore, the system is designed to run predefined measurement protocols and transfers the data to a remote server immediately after a measurement is performed. SAMOS is commonly installed in the transition zone between fresh- and saltwater allowing the detection of very slight resistivity changes (less than 1 Ohmmeter). While first systems were completely manufactured by LIAG, the latest subsurface systems were built by Solexperts which allowed us to include temperature sensors.

We present data from four SAMOS systems currently running at different locations. Two of them are installed in the central part of the freshwater lense of the North Sea island Borkum (in cooperation with Stadtwerke Borkum) in depths between 44 m and 65 m below the surface, close to freshwater wells of the local water supplier, thus monitoring the overall groundwater system and delivering data since 2009. Even though measurements immediately after the installation are disturbed by the drilling process and an adjustment to undisturbed natural conditions is observed, adapted inversion schemes allow to use all data. While in most cases only slight resistivity changes are observed up to now, at some depths larger seasonal resistivity changes occur at one Borkum site that can mostly be explained by changes of the groundwater recharge rate and changing pumping activities in a water catchment area. Two further systems have been installed in 2018 and 2020. One is located behind the dune line at the edge of the freshwater lense on the North Sea island Spiekeroog. In cooperation with the local water supply company OOWV (Oldenburg-Ostfriesischer Wasserverband) another system for their groundwater extraction fields is installed near Jever several kilometers from the coast-line used for early warning.

How to cite: Grinat, M., Ronczka, M., Günther, T., Epping, D., Kipke, V., and Mueller-Petke, M.: Long-term monitoring of coastal saltwater intrusion using the geoelectrical monitoring system SAMOS, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9379, 2021.

EGU21-12103 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Modelling nationwide climate change effects on coastal groundwater in the Netherlands

Joost Delsman, Gualbert Oude Essink, Tobias Mulder, and Sebastian Huizer

The coastal zone of the Netherlands is the densely populated economic heartland of the Netherlands. This low-lying area is predominantly located below current mean sea level. Groundwater in large parts of the Dutch coastal zone is saline, having infiltrated during Holocene transgressions. This saline groundwater is now slowly moving upward, driven by artificially lowered drainage levels and resulting land subsidence. Coastal groundwater in the Netherlands is vulnerable to climate change and rising sea levels, as groundwater levels rise, fresh groundwater reserves decrease, and surface water is salinized by exfiltrating saline groundwater.

We developed a high-resolution nationwide 3D fresh-salt groundwater flow and transport model to assess effects of climate change and sea level rise on groundwater salinization in the Netherlands. The fully scripted modelling workflow includes a 3D multiple indicator kriging interpolation of all available salinity measurements, that accounted for uncertainty in both measurements and interpolation. The developed model used a parallellized version of the SEAWAT model code to allow otherwise time-consuming calculations. It links to the existing national hydrological modelling framework to allow calculation of climate change effects on surface water supply and demand and agricultural damage. We used the resulting modelling framework to calculate groundwater effects of different climate change and sea level rise scenarios up to 2100.

Results show significant effects of climate change and especially sea level rise on coastal groundwater. Significant head increase (> 5% of SLR) is experienced in shallow aquifers between 2 to 10 km inland, dependent on the varying hydrogeological settings along the Dutch coast. In deeper aquifers, head increase generally propagates further, to up to 15 km inland. Through the combined effects of head increase and the inward movement of saline groundwater, salt loads to surface water increase over a significantly larger zone, extending to 25 km inward. Results signify the importance of including the long-term displacement of brackish and saline groundwater when assessing coastal groundwater effects of climate change and sea level rise.

How to cite: Delsman, J., Oude Essink, G., Mulder, T., and Huizer, S.: Modelling nationwide climate change effects on coastal groundwater in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12103, 2021.

EGU21-9069 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Adaptation to Saltwater inTrusion in sEa level RIse Scenarios (ASTERIS): hydrogeochemical surveys and aquifer modelling for groundwater behaviour assessing in the coastal areas of Fano and Ravenna (central-eastern Italy)

Barbara Nisi, Matia Menichini, Marco Doveri, Jacopo Cabassi, Orlando Vaselli, Serena Botteghi, Giulio Masetti, Brunella Raco, Linda Franceschi, Enrico Calvi, and Sandra Trifirò

The Adriatic region is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Although attention has been paid to understand the climate change impact and risks over the last decades, the Adriatic community still faces a lack of a common risk assessment. For this reason, ASTERIS project has been financed at the Call for proposal 2017 Priority Axis Safety and resilience of Interregional V Italy-Croatia 2014-2020 Program. To this overall objective, the project will provide two main outputs: i) a map of vulnerability to coastal salinization at the macro-regional scale (Adriatic) based on future scenarios for sea-level rise and the hydrological cycle and ii) best practice and guidelines for the management of vulnerable sites defined though the analysis of representative case studies in Italy and Croatia. Within these general purposes, hydrogeological and geochemical surveys in two specific shallow aquifer systems that develop in the coastal areas of Fano and Ravenna (central-eastern Italy), were carried out. Several periodical campaigns, aimed at measuring water level and physical-chemical parameters by vertical logs in wells or piezometers, were also conducted. Additionally, ground and surface water samples were also collected for chemical and isotopic analyses to define the compositional features and the main geochemical processes affecting the two shallow aquifers. Preliminary investigations suggested that the Ravenna shallow aquifer is already strongly spoiled by a significant seawater intrusion (up to 80 %), whereas at Fano the presence of the saline wedge can be regarded as negligible. This indicates that the aquifer system of Fano can be considered as a good proxy for evaluating and simulating potential processes of saline-fresh water interactions by either the increasing demand of water exploitation and sea level rise due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change, respectively. In order to simulate possible future ingressions of seawater in the aquifer system of Fano, groundwater flow and transport models are currently in progress. These models will be implemented and calibrated according to the hydrogeological and geochemical data collected within the framework of the ASTERIS project. The expected modelled scenarios, obtained through predictive simulations, are of pivotal importance for assessing the possible groundwater response to climate change and for a correct management and protection of water resources, which can be exported to other aquifers system along the Adriatic Sea.

How to cite: Nisi, B., Menichini, M., Doveri, M., Cabassi, J., Vaselli, O., Botteghi, S., Masetti, G., Raco, B., Franceschi, L., Calvi, E., and Trifirò, S.: Adaptation to Saltwater inTrusion in sEa level RIse Scenarios (ASTERIS): hydrogeochemical surveys and aquifer modelling for groundwater behaviour assessing in the coastal areas of Fano and Ravenna (central-eastern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9069, 2021.

EGU21-14870 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Vulnerability of coastal areas to increased aquifer saturation due to climate change

Alexandre Gauvain, Ronan Abhervé, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Luc Aquilina, and Frédéric Gresselin

Like in other relatively flat coastal areas, flooding by aquifer overflow is a recurring problem on the western coast of Normandy (France). Threats are expected to be enhanced by the rise of the sea level and to have critical consequences on the future development and management of the territory. The delineation of the increased saturation areas is a required step to assess the impact of climate change locally. Preliminary models showed that vulnerability does not result only from the sea side but also from the continental side through the modifications of the hydrological regime.

We investigate the processes controlling these coastal flooding phenomena by using hydrogeological models calibrated at large scale with an innovative method reproducing the hydrographic network. Reference study sites selected for their proven sensitivity to flooding have been used to validate the methodology and determine the influence of the different geomorphological configurations frequently encountered along the coastal line.

Hydrogeological models show that the rise of the sea level induces an irregular increase in coastal aquifer saturations extending up to several kilometers inland. Back-littoral channels traditionally used as a large-scale drainage system against high tides limits the propagation of aquifer saturation upstream, provided that channels are not dominantly under maritime influence. High seepage fed by increased recharge occurring in climatic extremes may extend the vulnerable areas and further limit the effectiveness of the drainage system. Local configurations are investigated to categorize the influence of the local geological and geomorphological structures and upscale it at the regional scale.

How to cite: Gauvain, A., Abhervé, R., de Dreuzy, J.-R., Aquilina, L., and Gresselin, F.: Vulnerability of coastal areas to increased aquifer saturation due to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14870, 2021.

EGU21-6675 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

A three-dimensional groundwater flow simulation of Granger Basin, Yukon, Canada

Audrey Woo, Jeffrey McKenzie, and Sean Carey

Groundwater flow and exfiltration (discharge) in Arctic and Subarctic mountain regimes is poorly understood yet plays an important role in areas underlain by continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Permafrost, ground with a perennial temperature below 0°C, acts as an impermeable barrier to groundwater flow and influences hydrogeologic connectivity and storage. The Arctic is warming at twice the global average rate, leading to rapid permafrost thaw with unclear consequences for groundwater systems. In this study, we develop a numerical groundwater model of the Granger Basin, Yukon, to further our understanding of the influence of permafrost and thaw on groundwater flow in basins impacted by climate change.

Granger Basin is a 7.6 km2  headwater catchment located within the Wolf Creek Research Basin, Yukon, Canada. It is representative of a subarctic-continental mountain environment with already observable climate change impacts. To date, there has been limited hydrogeology monitoring or numerical modeling at this site. To investigate cryohydrogeologic processes within the basin, we integrate existing field data, including 30 years of hydrometeorological records and geophysical data into a three-dimensional numerical model with saturated-unsaturated groundwater flow. We use the SUTRA-ice numerical model that couples groundwater flow and energy transport with dynamic freeze-thaw processes. The model incorporates both time-dependent thermal and hydrological surface boundary conditions and is used parametrically to understand the generation of groundwater baseflow in this setting. We will present initial results that will evaluate the impact of different hydrogeologic properties on the generation of groundwater streamflow in Wolf Creek, how permafrost in transition affects the groundwater system, and provide the framework for future research directions.

How to cite: Woo, A., McKenzie, J., and Carey, S.: A three-dimensional groundwater flow simulation of Granger Basin, Yukon, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6675, 2021.

In cold and humid climates, rivers and superficial water bodies are often fed by groundwater with relatively constant inflows that are most visible during the summer (limited net precipitation) and the winter (limited runoff and infiltration). The harsh winter – short growing season succession could be drastically affected by climate change. Although water is abundant, extreme low flows are expected in the near future, most likely due to warmer summer temperatures, increased summer PET and possible lower summer precipitation. It is thus crucial to provide stakeholders with scenarios of future groundwater recharge (GWR) to anticipate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources at the regional scale. This study aims to test the contributions of a superficial water budget model to estimate the impact of climate change on the regional GWR. The methodology is tested in a forested and agricultural region of southern Quebec, located between the St. Lawrence River and the Canada-USA border, and between the Quebec-Ontario border and Quebec City (36,000 km²). Scenarios of GWR for the region are simulated with the HydroBudget model, performing a transient-state spatialized superficial water budget, and 12 climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1951-2100 period). The model was previously calibrated in the study area for the 1961-2017 period and provides spatially distributed runoff, actual evapotranspiration, and GWR fluxes at a 500 x 500 m resolution with a monthly time step. Climate scenarios show warming of the annual temperature from +2 to +5°C and up to 20% increase of annual precipitation at the 2100 horizon compared to the 1981-2010 reference period. By the end of the century, the number of days above 0°C could double between November and April, dividing by almost two the quantity of snow during winter. The clear trends of warming temperature leads to a clear actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase while the increasing variability in annual precipitation translates into more variable annual runoff and GWR. Although no annual GWR decrease is simulated, an increase of winter GWR (up to x2) is expected, linked to warmer winters and unfrozen soils, followed by a decrease for the rest of the year, linked to a longer growing season producing higher AET rates. Although simple in its simulation process, the use of a superficial water budget model simulating soil frost provides new insights into the possible future trends in the different hydrologic variables based on a robust understanding of past condition. Aside from providing scenarios of spatialized GWR (also runoff and AET) at the 2100 horizon for a large region, this study shows that a simple water budget model is an appropriate and affordable tool to provide stakeholders with useful data for water management in a changing climate.

How to cite: Dubois, E., Larocque, M., and Gagné, S.: Using a water budget model to anticipate the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge at the regional scale in cold and humid climates - example of southern Quebec (Canada), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6039, 2021.

EGU21-15171 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Assessment interaction of climate change and aquifer recharge in different periods: an article review

Gustavo Cárdenas-Castillero and Michal Kuráž

Groundwater represents 98% of the world's freshwater resource. This resource is strongly impacted by the increase in temperature and variation in precipitation. Therefore, the relationship between climate change and the dynamics of aquifer recharge is still poorly understood. It was not until the 1980s when investigations in this field were improved. This research aims to evaluate the studies carried out on the impact of climate change-related to the recharge of aquifers. The applied methodology is strictly based on the bibliographic review. Bibliographic references were selected from citation database Scopus. This database was studied from a quantitative analysis using the Bibliometric package in RStudio. This investigation evaluates growth performance research on aquifer recharge on climate change from the 1980s to 2020.

 

The results show an average growth of 14.38% and a significant increase in research from 2009. This study identifies 52 countries, just over 26% of total countries; the highest contribution has been made by Australia, the United States and Spain. The journals with the most increased contributions are Water Journal, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Research, Science of the Total Environment, and Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. According to the impact of climate change, the worst projections related to the decrease in recharge were identified in arid and desert areas. While the highest recharges were placed in the northern regions and at high altitudes where the recharge capacity is maintained or increases due to rapid thaw and increasing rain. More studies should be extended to analyse groundwater assessment in other latitudes to achieve a complete and comprehensive understanding. This understanding should be one of the priorities of water and governments' scientific society to safeguard this precious resource.

Key words: Climate change, aquifer recharge, climate models, precipitation, and temperature.

How to cite: Cárdenas-Castillero, G. and Kuráž, M.: Assessment interaction of climate change and aquifer recharge in different periods: an article review, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15171, 2021.

EGU21-15311 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Formation features of river underground runoff under global warming conditions

Volodymyr Osadchyi, Oleksii Shevchenko, and Anastasiya Krasovs’ka

According to the results of processing long-term data series of hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring in the upper part of the Southern Bug river basin, it has been found that meteorological or climatic changes affect both terrestrial hydrosphere and shallow groundwater aquifer (level = 0.5…7.0 m). There are two stages of different effects of temperature changes on the groundwater regime: the first stage (1974-1998) had a positive impact, with an increased infiltration recharge and large-scale flooding, while the second stage (1999-2020) is characterized by increasing drought. The average annual infiltration recharge of groundwater on the first terrace above the flood-plain at the first stage has reached 191.6 mm that is quite high for this climatic zone, while at the second stage – 115.0 mm. The highest groundwater runoff to the river was recorded in 1987-1989 (the first terrace above the flood-plain), 1996-1998, 2005, and 2014 (from the left-bank catchment). By seasonal distribution, the spring runoff mostly prevailed in 1981-1986; starting from 1996-1999 (in different areas) – summer runoff, especially in years with maximum underground runoff; the winter runoff to the river slightly prevailed in certain years (1994, 1998, 2000, 2008, 2015).

With the transition from a low-water cycle of years to a water-rich cycle (and vice versa), the dominant cyclicity in the regime of groundwater and surface water changes from 5-6 years to 7-8 years.

1974-1975 and 1987-1989 had certain temperature limits that caused significant changes in the groundwater level regime: firstly, at long-term annual average depths of 1.5-1.8 m under the surface, and later at depths of 3.0-4.4 m having led to the transition and consolidation of levels at higher grades. At the second stage, the trends of precipitation, groundwater and surface runoff change significantly (surface runoff decreases most rapidly, while the intensity of groundwater runoff has slowed down), but the temperature rises with almost the same intensity. The dependence of the total river runoff on the underground increases.

In the long-term plan (40 years), groundwater and river runoffs change in opposite directions, as the regime-forming factors (temperature and precipitation) have different effects on them: rising temperatures at the first stage have led to increased groundwater runoff; at the same time, the intensity of the decrease in river runoff under the influence of temperature as well as the decrease in precipitation at the second stage increase. The difference in the rate of reactions of groundwater and surface water levels to precipitation still provides an increase in groundwater runoff by increasing the flow gradient to the river. With decreasing rainfall, this scenario will certainly lead to the depletion of groundwater reserves.

How to cite: Osadchyi, V., Shevchenko, O., and Krasovs’ka, A.: Formation features of river underground runoff under global warming conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15311, 2021.

EGU21-6577 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge & Discharge in Water Scarce Region: A Case Study of the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural Region of Oman.

Alaba Boluwade, Asma Al-Mamani, Amna Alruheili, and Ali Al-Maktoumi

 

*Correspondence: alaba@squ.edu.om

Abstract: The primary objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge using the 3D numerical-based HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model in the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural region in South of Oman. This region has multi-million US dollar irrigated agriculture project purposely developed for the food security of the country. Excessive abstraction of groundwater for irrigation use (using the center pivot irrigation system) has contributed to the “drying-up” of several groundwater wells located in this area. Therefore, there is an urgent need to characterize the long-term sustainability of this agricultural project under a changing climate. HGS model was calibrated on both steady and transient states using selected monitoring wells located within the study area (approximately 980-km2). The coefficient of determination (R2) for the steady-state performance was 0.93 while the transient state performances correctly reproduced the seasonality for each monitoring well. A transient-based calibrated version of the HGS model, using 30-year historical observations (1980-2018) was termed “Reference” while model configurations were developed for the immediate climatic projection (period: 2020 – 2039) based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): - RPC4.5 and RCP8.5 extracted from the World Bank Knowledge portal. These two configured models (scenarios) were evaluated for monthly transient simulations (2020-2039). From the total hydraulic head (THH) fluctuations standpoint, there were reductions when compared with “Reference” for all the scenarios with up to 20% THH reductions for groundwater well levels under persistent seasonal agricultural activities. This study is very important in quantifying the trade-offs and synergies involved between sustainable water management and food security initiatives, especially for an arid climate.

Keywords: groundwater recharge; climate change, hydrogeologic modeling; Sultanate of Oman

How to cite: Boluwade, A., Al-Mamani, A., Alruheili, A., and Al-Maktoumi, A.: Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge & Discharge in Water Scarce Region: A Case Study of the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural Region of Oman., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6577, 2021.

EGU21-3527 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater in an area in New Zealand

Jing Yang, Channa Rajanayaka, Lawrence Kees, and Christian Zammit

Climate and its variability have a considerable impact on seasonal water resources availability. Understanding the impact of climate change and the time lagged  response in areas where groundwater is the main water resource supporting human activity (water supply, agriculture and industry), is necessary to manage potentially damaging consequences for hydrologically-driven ecological functions, ecosystem services, economic response and adaptation, cultural values and recreation.  

In this study, we assess the impact of climate change on groundwater in Edendale area, South New Zealand, which has been experiencing increasing water abstraction pressure and declining groundwater level. We use downscaled CMIP5 IPCC climate predictions to drive a hydrologic model (TopNet) to simulate changes in land surface recharge (LSR) under different climate models and future climate scenarios (i.e. RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways) , and then the ensemble of LSR simulations further drive the Edendale groundwater model (MODFLOW) to simulate groundwater system.

Our initial result show: in spite of differences in simulations of different climate models and future climate scenarios, to the end of this century, there will be a slight annual increasing trend both for precipitation and LSR, significantly in Autumn and less significantly in other seasons; generally groundwater level and groundwater discharge (to rivers) will be increasing, following seasonal and annual patterns of changes in precipitation and LSR; differences are large for both climate models and future scenarios, largest for RCP8.5 and smallest for RCP2.6. We hope the results will support the long-term water management planning in the Edendale area.

How to cite: Yang, J., Rajanayaka, C., Kees, L., and Zammit, C.: Assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater in an area in New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3527, 2021.

EGU21-15341 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Complex groundwater flow systems in the light of climate change: response of combined fluid driving forces on recharge reduction

Timea Trásy-Havril, Szilvia Szkolnikovics-Simon, and Judit Mádl-Szőnyi

Climate change induced alteration of recharge is expected to have diverse effects on groundwater levels, which could also modify the fragmentation and hierarchy of groundwater flow systems, including their dimensions and relative positions.

This study put emphasis on how flow system hierarchy may change due to recharge reduction in complex, vertically superimposed groundwater flow systems with different fluid driving forces through an example of the Duna-Tisza Interfluve in Hungary. Two main groundwater flow domain was identified by previous authors in this area with a separate source of water. Recharge to the upper, unconfined, gravitational regime is inferred to occur from infiltrating precipitation, while the underlying confined, overpressured flow domain is maintained by pore volume reduction due to tectonic compression of the basement (Tóth and Almási 2001, Almási 2003, Mádl-Szőnyi and Tóth 2009). The exposure of these groundwater flow systems, one is driven by gravity and other one is by overpressure, is completely different to the effects of changes in hydrologic parameters. Local scale gravity-driven flow systems are identified to be the most vulnerable to atmospheric processes (Kurylyk et al., 2014), while overpressured upward flow is driven by tectonic compression, and thus independent of climatic variation.

Two-dimensional transient numerical simulations were performed to gain insight into the response of this complex flow system to the predicted climate change of the region. Special emphasis is placed on i) how relative rate and influence of the different driving forces may change due to the predicted recharge reduction, ii) how the fragmentation of the flow field may alter, iii) how the penetration depth of upper, gravity-driven flow field may adjust to these changes and iv) how groundwater-related shallow surface water bodies will be affected by these changes.

Understanding the effects of changed hydrologic conditions on such complex flow patterns and recharge-discharge relationships as well as on interactions with surface water bodies can help to set-up three-dimensional site-specific models. These models provide a base to better mitigate and prepare for the consequences of predicted future changes.

The research is supported by the ÚNKP-20-4 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology from the source of the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, as well as by the József and Erzsébet Tóth Endowed Hydrogeology Chair. This work is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 810980.

How to cite: Trásy-Havril, T., Szkolnikovics-Simon, S., and Mádl-Szőnyi, J.: Complex groundwater flow systems in the light of climate change: response of combined fluid driving forces on recharge reduction, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15341, 2021.

EGU21-10511 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Stress-testing groundwater and baseflow drought sensitivity to recharge

Jost Hellwig, Michael Stoelzle, and Kerstin Stahl

Groundwater is the main source of freshwater and maintains streamflow during drought. Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on the systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. We performed groundwater model experiments using three different generic stress tests to estimate the groundwater- and baseflow drought sensitivity to changes in recharge. The stress tests stem from a stakeholder co-design process that specifically followed the idea of altering known drought events from the past, i.e. asking whether altered recharge could have made a particular event worse. Here we show that groundwater responses to the stress tests are highly heterogeneous across Germany with groundwater heads in the North more sensitive to long-term recharge and in the Central German Uplands to short-term recharge variations. Baseflow droughts are generally more sensitive to intra-annual dynamics and baseflow responses to the stress tests are smaller compared to the groundwater heads. The groundwater drought recovery time is mainly driven by the hydrogeological conditions with slow (fast) recovery in the porous (fractured rock) aquifers. In general, a seasonal shift of recharge (i.e., less summer recharge and more winter recharge) will therefore have low effects on groundwater and baseflow drought severity. A lengthening of dry spells might cause much stronger responses, especially in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation. Water management may need to consider the spatially different sensitivities of the groundwater system and the potential for more severe groundwater droughts in the large porous aquifers following prolonged meteorological droughts, particularly in the context of climate change projections indicating stronger seasonality and more severe drought events.

How to cite: Hellwig, J., Stoelzle, M., and Stahl, K.: Stress-testing groundwater and baseflow drought sensitivity to recharge, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10511, 2021.

EGU21-9590 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Deep Learning based assessment of groundwater level development in Germany until 2100

Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, and Stefan Broda

Clear signs of climate stress on groundwater resources have been observed in recent years even in generally water-rich regions such as Germany. Severe droughts, resulting in decreased groundwater recharge, led to declining groundwater levels in many regions and even local drinking water shortages have occurred in past summers. We investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany until the year 2100. For this purpose, we use a machine learning groundwater level forecasting framework, based on Convolutional Neural Networks, which has already proven its suitability in modelling groundwater levels. We predict groundwater levels on more than 120 wells distributed over the entire area of Germany that showed strong reactions to meteorological signals in the past. The inputs are derived from the RCP8.5 scenario of six climate models, pre-selected and pre-processed by the German Meteorological Service, thus representing large parts of the range of the expected change in the next 80 years. Our models are based on precipitation and temperature and are carefully evaluated in the past and only wells with models reaching high forecasting skill scores are included in our study. We only consider natural climate change effects based on meteorological changes, while highly uncertain human factors, such as increased groundwater abstraction or irrigation effects, remain unconsidered due to a lack of reliable input data. We can show significant (p<0.05) declining groundwater levels for a large majority of the considered wells, however, at the same time we interestingly observe the opposite behaviour for a small portion of the considered locations. Further, we show mostly strong increasing variability, thus an increasing number of extreme groundwater events. The spatial patterns of all observed changes reveal stronger decreasing groundwater levels especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing the already existing decreasing trends in these regions

How to cite: Wunsch, A., Liesch, T., and Broda, S.: Deep Learning based assessment of groundwater level development in Germany until 2100, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9590, 2021.

EGU21-9877 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Rescue of groundwater level time series: how to identify and treat errors

Jānis Bikše, Inga Retike, Andis Kalvāns, Aija Dēliņa, Alise Babre, Konrāds Popovs, Marta Jemeļjanova, Artjoms Zelenkevičs, Artūrs Baikovs, and Zanita Avotniece

Groundwater level time series are the basis for various groundwater-related studies. The most valuable are long term, gapless and evenly spatially distributed datasets. However, most historical datasets have been acquired during a long-term period by various operators and database maintainers, using different data collection methods (manual measurements or automatic data loggers) and usually contain gaps and errors, that can originate both from measurement process and data processing. The easiest way is to eliminate the time series with obvious errors from further analysis, but then most of the valuable dataset may be lost, decreasing spatial and time coverage. Some gaps can be easily replaced by traditional methods (e.g. by mean values), but filling longer observation gaps (missing months, years) is complicated and often leads to false results. Thus, an effort should be made to retain as much as possible actual observation data.

In this study we present (1) most typical data errors found in long-term groundwater level monitoring datasets, (2) provide techniques to visually identify such errors and finally, (3) propose best ways of how to treat such errors. The approach also includes confidence levels for identification and decision-making process. The aim of the study was to pre-treat groundwater level time series obtained from the national monitoring network in Latvia for further use in groundwater drought modelling studies.

This research is funded by the Latvian Council of Science, project “Spatial and temporal prediction of groundwater drought with mixed models for multilayer sedimentary basin under climate change”, project No. lzp-2019/1-0165.

How to cite: Bikše, J., Retike, I., Kalvāns, A., Dēliņa, A., Babre, A., Popovs, K., Jemeļjanova, M., Zelenkevičs, A., Baikovs, A., and Avotniece, Z.: Rescue of groundwater level time series: how to identify and treat errors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9877, 2021.

EGU21-14493 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Analysis of long-term spring data in Austria – trends and changes

Matthias Hausleber, Maria Obwegs, Raoul Collenteur, Matevz Vremec, Thomas Wagner, Jutta Eybl, and Gerfried Winkler

Recent groundwater data analyses show an increase of groundwater temperature related to climate warming. This trend is suspected to occur at springs as well, in particular springs draining shallow aquifer systems being affected by air temperature. Contrary, deeper circulating systems such as large karst aquifers and the related springs may not show this water temperature increase. In this study, we investigate long term spring data from all over Austria. This is done through trend analyses of long-term time series of discharge, water temperature, and electrical conductivity from 97 springs in Austria The data are provided by the Hydrographic Service of Austria  and the observation period ranges from several years up to more than 30 years. The springs drain a wide range of aquifer types, from karst areas to periglacial sediments. Importantly, the springs mainly drain mountainous regions that are less anthropogenically influenced than most of the groundwater wells in the intermontane valleys and basins.

Preliminary results show significant trends of increasing water temperatures in some springs, potentially related to climate warming and through changes in precipitation (e.g., occurring as snowfall or rainfall). However, such a trend cannot be observed for all springs and it is suggested that certain aquifer types are more prone to climate warming, others are better protected / shielded due to their extend and flow characteristics. Trend analysis is performed not only for water temperature, but also for electrical conductivity and spring discharge. There, trends are less obvious or not as consistent. Therefore, a direct impact from climate change needs to be treated cautiously, reflecting aquifer characteristics. However, a better understanding is essential to further predict future development and help in water management planning. Future work will focus on identifying changes in system characteristics over the observation period, by computing autocorrelations and master recession curves over different time periods.

How to cite: Hausleber, M., Obwegs, M., Collenteur, R., Vremec, M., Wagner, T., Eybl, J., and Winkler, G.: Analysis of long-term spring data in Austria – trends and changes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14493, 2021.

EGU21-12294 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.2

Resilience to climate change: adaptation strategies for the water supply system of Formia, Gaeta (Province of Latina, Central Italy)  

Azzurra Lentini and the De Caterini Giovanni, Cima Ennio, Manni Rino, Della Ventura Giancarlo

The aqueduct that serves the municipalities of Formia, Gaeta (province of Latina, Italy), for which “ATO 4” Integrated Urban Water Management Agency is responsible, is supplied by two important karst sources fed by the western Aurunci Mountains: Mazzoccolo spring, with an average flow rate of 1100 l/s, and Capodacqua di Spigno spring, whose average flow rate is 1300 l/s.

Although these sources were already used in ancient Roman times and the quality of their water is excellent, the precipitation regime modifications, caused by climate changes, has exacerbated the following problems:

  • a decrease in the flow rates of the springs caused by the cyclical reduction of winter rainfall.
  • an increase of turbidity that makes the water temporarily unfit for human consumption.

In order to mitigate these problems affecting a resident population of about 150,000 people, Acqualatina S.p.A. – the water service provider – has promoted a series of unpublished geological, hydrogeological and geophysical studies to increase the knowledge of the hydrogeological aspects and to find additional sources of supply to improve the existing system.

We studied, therefore, a strategy aimed at diversifying the water supply by connecting the adjacent areas to the main water network and by identifying new aquifers in the area that were not affected by the aforementioned problems.

We hereby present the results of the research carried out before and during the construction of the wellfield called "25 Ponti" located in the plain of Formia, in the coastal area near the Tomb of Cicero (Tomba di Cicerone) archaeological site. Four (4) wells with a depth ranging between 55m and 100m and four (4) monitoring piezometers were drilled which intercepted a pressurized aquifer underlying Pleistocene marine terrace deposits, with a thickness ranging between 20m and 75m, which act as an aquiclude. The quality of the water was excellent from a physical chemical and bacteriological point of view, with different chemical properties compared to Mazzoccolo and Capodacqua springs.

The first work carried out during the 2017 water crisis showed an increase in salinity over time, potentially suggesting saltwater intrusion (Sappa, 2019).

In collaboration with D.I.C.E.A., the Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering of “La Sapienza” University in Rome, the groundwater was monitored to verify, and thus avoid, any saltwater intrusion. To this end, two wells with a total flow rate of about 50 l/s were commissioned and remained active for a period of 8 months (August 2019 - March 2020). About 120 water samples were analyzed from a chemical and isotopic point of view, while the piezometric trend, the electrical conductivity and temperature were recorded by means of multiparameter probes.

The results obtained showed that the increased mineralization of the aquifer follows a seasonal trend regulated by the groundwater extraction from the wells that, in some periods of the year, affects the regulated reserves. This seasonal phenomenon was also confirmed when monitoring was performed in absence of pumping.

To date, the change in salinity is believed to be due to the extraction of deep waters rather than to seawater intrusion.

How to cite: Lentini, A. and the De Caterini Giovanni, Cima Ennio, Manni Rino, Della Ventura Giancarlo: Resilience to climate change: adaptation strategies for the water supply system of Formia, Gaeta (Province of Latina, Central Italy)  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12294, 2021.

HS8.2.3 – Groundwater and water scarcity in dry regions: causes, processes, regional solutions

EGU21-3898 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

An integrated method to study and plan aquifer recharge

Eleftheria Kalaitzaki, Emmanouil Varouchakis, Gerald Augusto Corzo Perez, Vitali Diaz, Olianna Akoumianaki, and George P Karatzas

In the Mediterranean region, climatic variations in conjunction to intensive agriculture deteriorates groundwater resources which are over-exploited to cover irrigation demands. A characteristic example is Messara Basin in the island of Crete, Greece. This work presents an integrated suitability assessment study for potential aquifer recharge that considers the availability of water resources, hydro-geological and geomorphological characteristics, climatic scenarios, soil properties and suitability, and socioeconomic analysis under the framework of a suitable aquifer recharge technique.

The most suitable technique for planning the aquifer recharge was selected according to the area characteristics. The spreading method was assessed as the most suitable technique based on the area characteristics that should typically have a source of excess water available nearby, be located in a relatively flat area with permeable soils and be underlined by an unconfined aquifer. A multi-criteria decision analysis method was applied to identify suitable sites for implementing aquifer recharge type spreading method. The methodology is based on a multicriteria matrix developed in accordance to a relative optimization (weighting) method in terms of hydrogeological and geomorphological criteria, and water availability (reservoir, river). Criteria combining a high relevance and high data availability, and providing unique information, selected to assess the suitability of aquifer recharge in Messara basin such as slope, land use, hydrogeology, rainfall, groundwater level, soil texture and distance to source water.

All the aforementioned factors were separately studied and analyzed and then were combined under the principles of the spreading method to provide by means of spatial maps the most appropriate locations in the study basin.

The outcome of this work is a simple framework methodology for selecting the most suitable recharge locations of the underlying aquifers and to demonstrate its socioeconomic and environmental advantages. The results of this work will assist local authorities to consider the applicability of aquifer recharge in the Messara valley while it consists a framework for efficient planning of similar applications in other Mediterranean regions.

 

Acknowledgments

This work was implemented in the framework of the research project Uncertainty-aware intervention design for Mediterranean aquifer recharge. The project: "Uncertainty-aware intervention design for Mediterranean aquifer recharge benefits from the support of the Prince Albert II foundation". http://www.fpa2.org

 

References

Special water secretariat of Greece, 2017. Integrated Management Plans of the Greek Watersheds, Ministry of Environment & Energy, Athens.

Varouchakis, E.A., 2016. Integrated Water Resources Analysis at Basin Scale: A Case Study in Greece. J. Irrig. Drain. E-ASCE 142(3), 05015012. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000966

How to cite: Kalaitzaki, E., Varouchakis, E., Corzo Perez, G. A., Diaz, V., Akoumianaki, O., and Karatzas, G. P.: An integrated method to study and plan aquifer recharge, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3898, 2021.

EGU21-8933 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Improvement of Groundwater Recharge Mechanisms Knowledge in Rural Sahelian Zones: Case Study of Tougou Catchment, Burkina Faso

Radegonde Rusagara, Mahamadou Koita, Valérie Plagnes, and Anne Jost

The lack of adequate information on groundwater recharge mechanisms in the basement rock area of Sahelian regions does not allow to estimate recharge rates. Thus, this study, which aims to improve the knowledge of the groundwater recharge mechanisms of the Tougou (catchment of 37 km2 representing a basement rock in Sahel of West Africa) aquifers was initiated. The first step was to characterize the geology in terms of geometry and structure. The ERT profile (1.2 km length) crossing perpendicularly the river and lithologs from 10 observation wells (Average depth: 25m) and 1 borehole (Depth: 60 m) were used to make the correspondence between geological and geophysical data. The second step was to characterize vertically and laterally aquifers recharge mechanisms under the ephemeral river and two river banks. Hence, hourly to daily groundwater levels, electrical conductivity, and temperature of groundwater have been measured in those 10 observation wells and 1 borehole (Period: 2016-2020). The river water levels and the rainfall were also collected. The cross-correlation function was used between the rainfall or river water levels and the hydraulic heads time series. The geological characterization showed from top to bottom:

  • Residual soils: 1 m to 2 m thick, present in the riverbed and on the right bank;
  • Laterite (lateritic clays and lateritic cuirass): 2 m to 14 m thick, absent in the riverbed and present on the two banks;
  • Laterally continuous clayey saprolite: 10 m to 22 m thick;
  • Weathered schist: 32 m thick in the river. A bedrock was found at a depth of 55 m.

This geological conceptual model was a grounding for interpreting the results incurred from other data collected. It was ascertained that the weathered schist aquifer below the river is semi-confined (Average water depth: 9.5 m < top: 25 m) and vertically recharged by the saprolite aquifer. Laterally, the clayey saprolite aquifer is recharged by two main flows from:

  • The river: the electrical conductivity and temperature of the groundwater in the clayey saprolite aquifer below the river vary at the same time as the water table increases during the rainy season. In addition, mean hydraulic head differences of +0.3 m and +2 m have been observed between the piezometer located in the river and respectively, the piezometer located at 20 m from the river on the left bank and other piezometers located on the right bank (up to 600 m from the river). A maximum good cross-correlation between hydraulic heads and river water levels rather than with rain was found in all piezometers, but mostly in the one located in the river (cross-correlation = 0.56). These indicate an indirect recharge process.
  • The left bank: An mean hydraulic head difference (+3 m) which is related to a transfer of hydraulic pressure from probably a nearby recharge area was noted between the piezometers located at 300 m and the riverbed.

For further studies, the information obtained will be used to estimate the recharge through different methods including numerical modeling.

How to cite: Rusagara, R., Koita, M., Plagnes, V., and Jost, A.: Improvement of Groundwater Recharge Mechanisms Knowledge in Rural Sahelian Zones: Case Study of Tougou Catchment, Burkina Faso, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8933, 2021.

EGU21-11825 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Comparison of methods for recharge estimation and prediction in karstic aquifers under Mediterranean Climate

Paul Hepach, Sandra Banusch, Lysander Bresinsky, Mark Somogyvári, Edoardo Bucchignani, Martin Sauter, and Irina Engelhardt

Karst aquifers provided 9.2 % of the world’s population with fresh water in 2016 (Stevanović, 2019), but due to their dual flow behavior they are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts and shifts in climate. In the near future, 52 out of 356 Mediterranean aquifers will be exposed to more extreme climatic conditions, which will enhance their water stress if the water usage is not adapted to available water resources (Nußbaum, 2020). Therefore, accurate and high resolution numerical - and empirical models are essential to calculate the groundwater recharge and water availability in complex karst aquifers that cover ~ 14 % of the earth’s ice free land (Stevanovic, 2019).

During the last decades, several empirical equations have been developed to calculate the recharge for Israel´s most important source of freshwater, the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA). These equations calculate annual groundwater recharge of the entire 1.812 km2 recharge area based on annual or monthly precipitation data. We analyzed the applicability of several new methods, such as Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), HydroGeoSphere (HGS) and Hydro- / Pedo- Transfer Functions (HPTF) to estimate groundwater recharge with  a higher resolution as this is essential to calculate proper water fluxes though the vadose zone of karstic aquifers when precipitation is affected by a high variability in space and time.

The hydrologic balance models,  e.g. SWAT (Neitsch et al., 2009),  calculate the water balance on a daily basis for specified Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), while generalized HPTFs (Wessolek et al., 2009) use soil-, land cover-  and climate data to calculate  annual percolation rates on a coarse grid, in our case 500 m grid size. The dual continuum model using the code HGS (Brunner et al., 2011) is able to simulated based on Richards’s flow equation down- and upward water fluxes in the unsaturated zone accounting for both, a rapid flow component though the high permeable conduit and a slow flow component through the rock matrix.

The comparison of these empirical and new methods for groundwater recharge estimation show significant differences for hydrological extreme years, while results are similar during years with precipitation rates near the average value. For example, the empirical equation of Guttman & Zukerman (1995) gives  highest recharge values of all approaches during wet years, while the equation of Abusaada (2011) and the SWAT-model calculates  highest recharge values of all approaches during  dry years. Overall, the mean recharge ranges from 120 to 177 mm/a which equals 25 – 37 % of the average precipitation between 1990 – 2018.

These recharge rates are calculated based on IMS climate data. However, for recharge values used in water resources management regional climate projections are needed. For Israel a high resolution CORDEX-MENA climate projection (Hochman et al., 2018) is available for RCP4.5, showing an increase in temperature and decrease of precipitation during the winter of 2.5 °C and 40 %, respectively. Based on these climate projections the  SWAT-model estimates, that the average groundwater recharge for 2050 – 2070 will be 16 % lower than the reference period between 1980 – 2000.

How to cite: Hepach, P., Banusch, S., Bresinsky, L., Somogyvári, M., Bucchignani, E., Sauter, M., and Engelhardt, I.: Comparison of methods for recharge estimation and prediction in karstic aquifers under Mediterranean Climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11825, 2021.

EGU21-14446 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Distributed modeling of groundwater recharge in a semi-arid carbonate aquifer using the integrated surface-subsurface flow simulator HydroGeoSphere

Lysander Bresinsky, Jannes Kordilla, Irina Engelhardt, and Martin Sauter

Present methods to quantify recharge in karst aquifers in many cases rely on spatially and temporally aggregated precipitation values, neglecting the highly erratic, non-linear nature of infiltration dynamics that give rise to a dual-domain behavior with a slow diffuse and fast focused recharge component. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of integrated surface-subsurface flow models to simulate diffuse and preferential infiltration within the large scale Western-Mountain-Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the Palestinian territories. A semi-arid climate region with a highly pronounced seasonality of precipitation and intense short-duration rainfalls, such as the Mediterranean region, emphasizes the importance of understanding and accounting for the complex dynamics of dual-domain infiltration and partitioning of the precipitation input signal via spatially discretized overland flow processes.

We apply HydroGeoSphere as a dual-continuum flow simulator for transient variably-saturated water flows, discretizing the rock matrix and secondary porosity (i.e., conduits and fractures) as separate overlapping continua. Flow is respectively computed via the Richards' equation with volume-averaged van Genuchten parameters, assuming that the Richards' equation is valid for both domains. The presented model accounts for surface flow via the two-dimensional Saint-Vénant equations under nonexistent inertial forces. We apply precipitation directly to the overland flow continuum and naturally account for the partitioning into Horton overland flow and percolating water. However, modeling of unsaturated flow through the conduit/fracture continuum with the van Genuchten parameterization is often limited, as the Richards' equation describes flow solely in terms of capillary forces, leading to high matric suction in the matrix continuum as a result of the smaller pore spaces (and hence constant exchange from the fracture continuum to the matrix system). In a natural system, non-linear transfer processes govern the transfer between fracture/conduit and matrix flow, such as inertia-driven infiltration (i.e., droplet, rivulet, and film flow) that initially retains itself from equilibration of capillary pressure heads and avoids instant matrix imbibition. This study demonstrates parametrization strategies to allow for infiltration through the fracture/conduit continuum using small-scale process-based simulations. Further, we offer procedures that help to achieve convergence of complex catchment-scale variably-saturated simulations.

How to cite: Bresinsky, L., Kordilla, J., Engelhardt, I., and Sauter, M.: Distributed modeling of groundwater recharge in a semi-arid carbonate aquifer using the integrated surface-subsurface flow simulator HydroGeoSphere, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14446, 2021.

EGU21-9792 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Groundwater assessment in the Mediterranean region: Regional modelling and in-situ data across scales

Nahed Ben-Salem, Robert Reinecke, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, George Karatzas, Michael Rode, and Seifeddine Jomaa

Groundwater is a valuable resource throughout the world. It supplies the needs of many sectors everywhere. Providing high spatial resolution groundwater data is important for climatic, hydrological and agricultural applications, to ensure sustainable groundwater management. The scarcity of high-resolution groundwater data over large scales at the required accuracy is a significant limitation for such applications. This study was undertaken in the Mediterranean region, which is recognized as one of the world's most sensitive regions to water scarcity due to both climate change and consistently increasing anthropogenic pressures. Groundwater is considered a strategic freshwater reserve in the Mediterranean region; however, its status remains poorly characterized. This study investigates the feasibility of downscaling outputs of three global groundwater models (Reinecke et al. (2019), de Graaf et al. (2017) and Fan et al. (2013)) to higher resolution.

Steady-state results of the three models were compared with in-situ groundwater level observations, and an aggregation method was developed for downscaling. Observations from a long-term groundwater monitoring network over different regional studies around the Mediterranean were employed. Results showed that there is a significant discrepancy between the three compared model outputs. More specifically, the de Graaf et al. (2017) model presents a deeper water table than Reinecke et al. (2019) and Fan et al. (2013), while de Graaf et al. (2017) generally shows more significant variability in simulated water table depth. A detailed comparison between simulated and measured water table depth of different Mediterranean aquifers having different climatic, geologic and anthropogenic conditions will be presented.

The results of this work will contribute to advance the understanding of how to combine large-scale groundwater modelling with local in-situ data as a crucial tool to improve groundwater management in data-scarce regions.

This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, Germany, Grant 01DH19015) under the Project Sustain-COAST, co-funded by EU PRIMA 2018 programme.

 

References

  • ­ Reinecke, R. et al. Challenges in developing a global gradient-based groundwater model (G3M v1.0) for the integration into a global hydrological model. Model Dev 12, 2401-2418 (2019).
  • ­ de Graaf, I. et al. A global-scale two-layer transient groundwater model: Development and application to groundwater depletion. Water Resour 102, 53-67 (2017).
  • ­ Fan, Y. et al. Global patterns of groundwater table depth. Science 339, 940-943 (2013).

How to cite: Ben-Salem, N., Reinecke, R., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., Karatzas, G., Rode, M., and Jomaa, S.: Groundwater assessment in the Mediterranean region: Regional modelling and in-situ data across scales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9792, 2021.

EGU21-10989 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Long-term groundwater database and assessment for the Mediterranean region

Rafael Chavez Garcia Silva, Robert Reinecke, Emmanouil Varouchakis, Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Michael Rode, and Seifeddine Jomaa

The Mediterranean region faces water security challenges with increasing water demand and climate change effects. Groundwater has become a key resource for water supply and economic development in the last decades, however, its budget remains poorly understood. The distribution of piezometric data in the Mediterranean has a very contrasting distribution. A large portion of them is not centralized and openly accessible, resulting in lack of detailed assessment of groundwater trends and their controlling factors at the regional Mediterranean scale. The objectives of this work are: i) the creation of a long-term and, possibly, the most comprehensive database for groundwater dynamics in the Mediterranean region, ii) the identification of trends and clusters on groundwater levels, and iii) the identification of the relationship between trends and climatic and hydrogeological drivers.

Over 10,000 time series of groundwater level have been collected from national and regional authorities and the literature. The data come from eight countries in the Mediterranean region and have been post-processed into a common format. A search for seasonal patterns and long-term trends is performed then clustered accordingly. Furthermore, the influence of controlling factors such as precipitation and hydrogeology on the groundwater dynamics and trends are assessed. Significant groundwater level changes have been identified at a regional scale and used to provide insight into groundwater level change drivers’ in the Mediterranean region. The database is the result of a unique joint effort between regional groundwater experts to collect groundwater status information in the Mediterranean region and will serve as the foundation for future research on the influence of anthropogenic drivers and the prediction of groundwater depletion hotspots.

This work was developed under the scope of the InTheMED project. InTheMED is part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 1923.

How to cite: Chavez Garcia Silva, R., Reinecke, R., Varouchakis, E., Gómez-Hernández, J., Rode, M., and Jomaa, S.: Long-term groundwater database and assessment for the Mediterranean region, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10989, 2021.

EGU21-13982 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

REOF analysis of ground water level variation in an Urban hard rock aquifer system

Vineeth Vijayan and Parthasarathy Ramachandran

Strategies for sustainable ground water management are to be planned at regional scale. Urban ground water recharge is complex and dynamic. Various factors contribute to ground water level variation. Understanding the ground water recharge components is essential in planning and management of the water resources in any city. This study attempts to understand the spatiotemporal variations of an urban hard rock aquifer system in Bengaluru, India using REOF analysis and Kriging. Bengaluru meets its needs of water supply from river Cauvery. The water supply utility has an increasing block tariff to control the water demand in the city. But it measures only the use of surface water that is being supplied by the utility. Ground water, being a free resource, bridges the demand supply gap in the city. More than half of the water demand in the city is met through ground water. Hence it is essential to understand the components of ground water level variation in this hard rock aquifer system. Rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of monthly piezometric heads from 153 monitoring wells measured during 2015-2017 is used to identify the primary ground water recharge components. The major components of ground water level variation in the study area was identified as rainfall and pipeline leakage. Ordinary Kriging was used to regionalize the identified significant empirical orthogonal functions.

How to cite: Vijayan, V. and Ramachandran, P.: REOF analysis of ground water level variation in an Urban hard rock aquifer system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13982, 2021.

EGU21-15373 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Groundwater dynamics in the Betwa River catchment in Central India

Niranjan Naik, Zafar Beg, Amit Kumar, and Kumar Gaurav

Groundwater is an important natural freshwater resource and plays a significant role in the socio-economic development of any country. The Betwa River basin in central India has experienced severe exploitation of groundwater resource in the past few decades. About 80 % of groundwater in this region is extracted for the agriculture purpose. Also, the scarcity in rainfall throughout the year and seasonal flow in the Betwa River has increased the agricultural dependence on the groundwater. This has led the Betwa River basin into a major hot spot of groundwater depletion.

This study estimates the trend of groundwater level and storage change to assess the groundwater dynamics in the Betwa River basin. We used in-situ groundwater level data for a period between 1987-2018 to calculate the trend in groundwater level using the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method. Further, we performed the Ordinary Kriging to understand the spatial and temporal trends of groundwater during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. Eventually, we use the water table fluctuation (WTF) method to estimate groundwater storage in the study area. Our results suggest a decline in groundwater storage change as 701 and 626 MCM in the post and pre-monsoon period respectively from 2008-2018. During the same period, we observed that the Betwa basin has experienced about 3-5 m decline in the groundwater level.

 

How to cite: Naik, N., Beg, Z., Kumar, A., and Gaurav, K.: Groundwater dynamics in the Betwa River catchment in Central India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15373, 2021.

EGU21-929 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Calculating groundwater stress and climate change-induced vulnerability of karst aquifers on a global scale

Philipp Nußbaum, Márk Somogyvári, Christopher Conrad, Martin Sauter, and Irina Engelhardt

Approximately 10% of the global population rely on groundwater from karst aquifers. Due to complex karst structures, these aquifers have high infiltration capacities and hydraulic conductivities, which makes them vulnerable to pollution and, as prediction and management are complicated, overexploitation. As populations are growing and demand rises, we assess the current level of groundwater stress in karst aquifers with Mediterranean climates and their vulnerability (defined as the change in groundwater stress) to expected changes in temperature and precipitation on the global scale.

Our approach is based on a Groundwater Stress Index (GSI), which is calculated for 356 karst aquifers (as identified in the World Karst Aquifer Map) that have some of their area located in Mediterranean climate zones (Csa, Csb, and Csc after Köppen/Geiger). GSI are calculated from seven indicators: groundwater recharge, storage, and abstractions, surface runoff, climatic water balance, water-intensity of crops, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Each indicator is spatially and temporally averaged to describe a recent trend on aquifer level, resulting in one complex attribute table for the 356 aquifers. GSI is calculated as the average of the normalized indicators for each aquifer, ranging from 0 (no water stress) to 1 (extreme water stress).

Aquifers are then grouped based on similarities in two classification parameters – degree of karstification (P1) and land cover (P2). Comparison of aquifers with similar classification parameters allows to focus more directly on the relationship between groundwater stress and climate, disregarding relatively constant influences. For each group (e.g., well-developed karst, primarily agriculturally used), we plot calculated GSI values with current temperature and precipitation data. By investigating four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) until 2100, we identify aquifers that mimic future climate conditions for others with similar P1 and P2. We then measure the difference in groundwater stress accompanied by altered climatic factors. This change is interpreted as vulnerability to climate change.

This approach, which relies on present-day observed conditions, allows us to predict the effect of a changing climate without the need to develop a complex numerical model, which requires large amounts of data and functional understanding of aquifer behavior. While analysis is currently ongoing, we expect both groundwater stress and vulnerabilities to be high. Predicted climate zone shifts by Beck et al. (2018) indicate that, out of 356 karst aquifers with Mediterranean climates, 52 could move to more extreme arid climate zones by 2100.

Results will be visualized in the form of vulnerability maps that may serve as an “early-warning system”. For particularly threatened aquifers, we will derive recommendations for more sustainable management by suggesting strategies to lower groundwater stress. This is done by taking a closer look at the aquifer’s indicator values and identifying factors that currently contribute the most to groundwater stress.

How to cite: Nußbaum, P., Somogyvári, M., Conrad, C., Sauter, M., and Engelhardt, I.: Calculating groundwater stress and climate change-induced vulnerability of karst aquifers on a global scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-929, 2021.

EGU21-4679 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

A new Python package to estimate hydraulic and poroelastic groundwater properties using standard pressure records

Gabriel Rau, Daniel Schweizer, Chris Turnadge, Philipp Blum, and Todd Rasmussen

Determining subsurface hydraulic and geomechanical properties crucially underpins groundwater resource investigation and management. While standard practice relies on active testing, passive approaches require less effort and cost but are underutilised. We present the new Python package named HydroGeoSines (HGS) which quantifies hydraulic and poroelastic subsurface properties using the groundwater response to natural forces (such as Earth tides and atmospheric pressure changes) embedded in standard measurements. All implemented methods are drawn from the peer-reviewed literature. The package includes basic handling of time series, such as joining and aligning records and handling gaps. HGS uses standard atmospheric and groundwater pressure records to estimate the Barometric Response Function (BRF) groundwater state of confinement, hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, barometric efficiency (BE) and porosity. If Earth tides are required, they can be calculated on-the-fly using the PyGTide package which is based on ETERNA and included. HGS allows easy compensation and correction of pressure or hydraulic heads from barometric pressure or Earth tide influences. Further, HGS includes import from and export to common data formats as well as visualisation of data and results. We demonstrate the use of HGS using example datasets from around the world. Since HGS unlocks sophisticated methods for use by anyone with Python skills, we anticipate that it will support subsurface investigations and add value to standard monitoring practice.

How to cite: Rau, G., Schweizer, D., Turnadge, C., Blum, P., and Rasmussen, T.: A new Python package to estimate hydraulic and poroelastic groundwater properties using standard pressure records, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4679, 2021.

EGU21-7985 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Experimental rooftop rainwater harvesting by shallow well infiltration – A case study from the Duna-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary

Zsóka Szabó, Daniele Pedretti, Marco Masetti, Tibor Ridavits, Endre Csiszár, and Judit Mádl-Szőnyi

In the Duna-Tisza Interfluve area, groundwater levels have declined significantly in the last decades, due to anthropogenic activities (e.g. water abstraction, canalization, and forestation) and climate change. In the past, several replenishment plans have been prepared, involving large, cross-regional technical investments, but have not been implemented due to the lack of adequate financial resources and environmental concerns. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a local scale solution by experimental research, which has several environmental and economic benefits and could contribute to ease the water shortage of the area.
Three approaches were used during the experimental research: (i) on-site field observations and measurements, (ii) time series analyses of the monitored data and (iii) transient numerical simulations to understand on-site processes. A field experiment was set up to lead rainwater from the roof of a family house to the dug well in the yard. Furthermore, two observation wells were established where the water level, temperature and electrical conductivity were recorded every half hour. Water samples were taken from the dug well and the monitoring wells for laboratory measurements. Precipitation was measured on a daily basis. The effects of shallow water injection on water level and water quality have been monitored for a year and the project is planned to be continued for at least one more year. In the second step, geomathematical methods have been applied to analyze time-series data and assess the effects of injected water on water levels and water quality. Moreover, a transient MODFLOW model was built (i) to evaluate the impact of the injected roof water on the groundwater level, (ii) to separate the influence of natural infiltration from the injected water, and (iii) to better understand the seasonal differences related to artificial and natural infiltration processes.
The obtained results can help to understand the effects of rainwater harvesting through shallow well infiltration, provide background information for further numerical simulations and contribute to expand the design of similar systems on settlement and regional level. In the Duna-Tisza Interfluve, rooftop rainwater harvesting and Managed Aquifer Recharge can be effective tools for climate change adaptation and increasing groundwater resilience.

This research is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 810980.

How to cite: Szabó, Z., Pedretti, D., Masetti, M., Ridavits, T., Csiszár, E., and Mádl-Szőnyi, J.: Experimental rooftop rainwater harvesting by shallow well infiltration – A case study from the Duna-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7985, 2021.

EGU21-10826 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Isotopic Characterization of groundwater in semi-arid Western India: Insights into Hydrogeological Processes

Amit Pandey, Virendra Padhya, and Rajendrakumar Dattatraya Deshpande

The study area located in the semi-arid western India is the tenth most populous Indian state with an estimated population of 60.3 million (~5% of Indian population) and population density of 308 persons/km2. About 42.6% of the population lives in the urban area and 57.4% in rural areas. Surface water paucity, seasonal availability and a varying amount of rainfall in this region make groundwater an important and most preferred source to fulfil the demand for drinking water, agricultural, industrial and sustain an important native terrestrial ecosystem. The over-dependency on groundwater leads to various problems related to quality and quantity of groundwater like a rapid decline of the water table, mining of static groundwater, seawater intrusion and groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic sources. Sustainable water management across the state must be underpinned by the clear understanding of groundwater recharge characteristics, relationship between recharge sources and groundwater, factors controlling the interaction between surface water and groundwater, deletion of the areas not receiving a freshwater influx. Shallow groundwater samples were collected during IWIN nation programme (2008 to 2013)  for the year 2009 to measure the stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater from 205 locations during post-monsoon (November ) season and 207 locations in pre-monsoon season ( May-June) to understand the factors governing Spatio-temporal variation in isotopic composition and obtain insights about the spatially variable recharge characteristics and possible controlling factors. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic values and their spatio-temporal variations in the study area demonstrate that (1) d18O depletion in post-monsoon GW compare to pre-monsoon infer the seasonal recharge of GW (2) d18O of post-monsoon GW ( -2.3‰) lie in between the d18O of pre-monsoon GW ( -1.9‰) and d18O of southwest monsoon rainfall (-4.1‰) indicates post-monsoon GW is the mixture of these two components (3) Seasonal variation in d18O deduce that 56% ( ~109773 km2) of the total land area (~ 196773 km2) shows seasonal GW recharge while 32% (62727 km2) is not receiving any freshwater influx (4) 36% of post-monsoon samples while 40% of the pre-monsoon samples have negative d-excess values and shows a decreasing trend with d18O infer evaporation of sub-surface water prior to recharge (5) Alluvial aquifer of north Gujarat has depleted d18O compare to adjacent high elevated hard rock aquifer indicates irrigation return flow of deep static water.

How to cite: Pandey, A., Padhya, V., and Deshpande, R. D.: Isotopic Characterization of groundwater in semi-arid Western India: Insights into Hydrogeological Processes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10826, 2021.

EGU21-12074 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Study of water salinity in the Chtouka plain (Morocco) using TEM geophysical method, chemical and isotopes tracers

Henrik Schreiber, Saadou Oumarou Danni, Amine Touab, Fatima Abourig, Nelly Montcoudiol, Yassine Ez-Zaouy, Mohammed Hssaisoune, and Lhoussaine Bouchaou

The Chtouka plain in Morocco suffers from groundwater overexploitation and a significant increase in water salinity. In this study, a multidisciplinary approach combining water chemistry, stable isotopes of water (18O, 2H) and Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) method was used. The main objective was to identify the water salinity sources and the extension of the marine intrusion. Water samples were collected from wells and boreholes, springs, the Massa river and the main source of freshwater in the region, the Youssef Ibn Tachfine Dam. Geophysical (TEM) measurements (12 profiles comprising 83 measurement points) were carried out along the coastal zone and around the northern bank of the Massa river. The results show a spatial variability of water salinity, indicating rock-water interaction, seawater intrusion and anthropogenic influence. The interpretation of the TEM soundings allow to draw the front line of the marine intrusion in the aquifer. The results, compared to previous numerical simulations, show a significant progress of the marine intrusion into the coastal aquifer. The intrusion indeed reaches a distance of 2.5 km from the coast, far beyond models’ predictions. The local water authorities can use these results to improve their monitoring network and better assess the progress of the seawater intrusion.
Keywords: Water salinity, TEM geophysical method, chemical and isotopes tracers, marine intrusion

How to cite: Schreiber, H., Danni, S. O., Touab, A., Abourig, F., Montcoudiol, N., Ez-Zaouy, Y., Hssaisoune, M., and Bouchaou, L.: Study of water salinity in the Chtouka plain (Morocco) using TEM geophysical method, chemical and isotopes tracers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12074, 2021.

Quantification of long-term hydrologic change in groundwater often requires the comparison of states pre- and post- change. The assessment of these changes in ungauged catchments is particularly difficult from a conceptual point of view and due to parameter non-uniqueness and associated uncertainty of quantitative frameworks. In these contexts, the use of data assimilation, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification techniques are critical to maximise the use of available data both in terms of conceptualisation and quantification. This paper summarises findings of a study undertaken in the Lake Muir-Unicup Natural Diversity Recovery Catchment (MUNDRC), where a number of techniques were applied to inform both conceptual and numerical models. The MUNDRC is and small-scale endorheic basin located in southwestern Australia listed under the Ramsar Convention as a Wetland of International Importance and have been subject to a systematic decline in rainfall rates since 1970. Conceptual and numerical frameworks have been development to understand and quantify impacts of rainfall decline on the catchment using a variety of metrics involving groundwater and lake levels, as well as fluxes between these compartments and mass balance components. Conceptualisation was facilitated with the use a novel data-driven method relating rainfall and groundwater response running backwards in time, allowing the establishment of baseline conditions prior to rainfall decline, estimation of net recharge rates and providing initial heads for the forward numerical modelling. Parameter and predictive uncertainties associated with data gaps have been minimised and quantified utilising an Iterative Ensemble Smoother (White, 2018), while further refinement of conceptual model was undertaken following results from sensitivity analysis, where major parameter controls groundwater levels and other predictions of interest were quantified.

How to cite: De Sousa, E., Hipsey, M., and Vogwill, R.: Data assimilation, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification in a semi-arid terminal catchment subject to rainfall decline, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14038, 2021.

EGU21-982 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3 | Highlight

Prediction of Future Groundwater Contamination Risk in Rural Agricultural Regions

Elisha Persaud and Jana Levison

Strategies for understanding regional groundwater contamination risk are often challenged by changing land use and climate conditions. Furthermore, index-based assessment methods are typically implemented in a static manner which inherently precludes possible changes in future contamination risk resulting from these dynamic conditions. It is perhaps equally important to consider the manner in which climate forcing and land use are represented. With regards to land use in particular, rural regions may have unique concerns; agricultural land use is commonly represented as a single land use class despite the complex land management practices that may be present and the subsequent implications for groundwater quality. This investigation demonstrates alteration of the conventional DRASTIC-LU methodology to assess mid-century changes in groundwater contamination risk through the treatment of recharge, depth to water table, and land use as dynamic factors. The potential influence of agricultural land use representation on DRASTIC-LU model performance and prediction is concurrently examined. The Upper Parkhill watershed in southwestern Ontario, Canada is explored as a case study for method application. Study results indicate that the inclusion of crop rotation and tile drainage data has the potential to improve model functioning. Moreover, predicted future changes in groundwater contamination risk may differ depending on the manner in which agricultural land use is represented. This investigation helps to resolve the influence of land use on groundwater contamination risk and provides a screening tool that may be used to support groundwater decision making.

How to cite: Persaud, E. and Levison, J.: Prediction of Future Groundwater Contamination Risk in Rural Agricultural Regions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-982, 2021.

As contamination in groundwater has been reported from various regions of the Indian subcontinent but no data related to heavy metal contamination of groundwater has been reported for the Bahraich area in the Indo-Gangetic plains. We report the first dataset on arsenic contamination and groundwater hydrogeochemistry, in Bahraich. This includes concentrations of heavy metal such as As, Mn, and Fe, along with major cations (Na+, K+, Ca2+and Mg2+) and anions (F-, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and PO43-), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), along with various physico-chemical parameters such as EC, pH, and Eh from samples collected during two extensive field campaigns conducted during pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons respectively. The combined use of geochemical modeling and multivariate statistical approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis (CA) suggest several processes affecting the geochemistry of groundwater including the lithological characteristics of aquifers and anthropogenic activities.

The groundwater of the study area predominantly belongs to the Ca-Mg-HCO3 type hydrochemical facies. HCO3/Na+ and Ca2+/Na+ signatures of groundwater indicate the influence of silicate weathering and carbonate dissolution processes with the insignificant role of evaporate dissolution mechanism. As concentration was found to range from 0.6 μg/L to ~100 μg/L with almost 40% of the collected samples exceeding the WHO defined limit of 10 μg/L for drinking water. 70 % of the groundwater samples were found to have very high Fe concentrations exceeding the WHO guideline of 0.3 mg/l in drinking water. Mn concentrations in the groundwater samples were relatively low with only ~10 % of the samples exceeding the WHO defined limit for Mn (400 μg/L). The majority of the groundwater samples were found to be anoxic in nature showing low NO3 & SO42- concentrations, high Fe & Mn and DOC concentrations, and negative Eh values.

Results from this study show that the reductive dissolution mechanism of iron oxyhydroxide is the dominant mechanism responsible for arsenic release in groundwater of the region, ruling out any role of sulfide oxidation and alkali desorption.

 

 

How to cite: Khan, M. U., Rai, N., and Sharma, M. K.: Geochemical modeling and multivariate statistical approach for assessing the groundwater quality, and mechanism of arsenic mobilization in Bahraich region, Indo-Gangetic plains, India, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1061, 2021.

EGU21-3458 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.3

Estimation of groundwater CO2 concentrations on a catchment scale using Random Forest

Stefan Baltruschat, Steffen Bender, Jens Hartmann, and Annika Nolte

Water-rock-interactions in the saturated and unsaturated zone govern the natural variability of CO2 in groundwater. However, anthropogenic pollutions such as excessive input of organic and inorganic fertilizers or sewage leakage can cause shifts in the carbonate-pH system in an aquifer. Additional dissolution of minerals and associated mobilization of harmful heavy metals are possible consequences. Anthropogenic groundwater pollution is especially an issue where a protective confining layer is absent. On the other hand, addressing an environmental hazard such as fertilizer input to a single parameter remain intricate due to the high number of possible competing reactions such as microbial-controlled redox reactions. To overcome these obstacles, machine learning based statistical methods become increasingly important.

This study attempt to predict the CO2 concentration in groundwater from a multi-feature selection by using Random Forest. For this purpose, groundwater chemistry data (in situ measured bulk parameter, major ions, nutrients, trace elements and more) from more than 23000 wells and springs in Germany were collected and homogenized in a single database. Measured or calculated CO2 concentrationsare used to train the Random Forest algorithm and later to validate model results. Beside chemistry data, features about hydrogeology, soil characteristics, land use land cover and climate factors serve as predictors to build the “forest”. The intention of this study is to establish comprehensive CO2 predictions based on surface and climate features and to identify trends in local CO2 production. Gained knowledge can be used as input for groundwater quality management processes and adaptation policies.

How to cite: Baltruschat, S., Bender, S., Hartmann, J., and Nolte, A.: Estimation of groundwater CO2 concentrations on a catchment scale using Random Forest, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3458, 2021.

The environmental fate and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient species leached from agroecosystems are largely influenced by the hydrogeological setting, which dictates the distribution of groundwater flow pathways, residence times, and physio-chemical properties of the subsurface. Traditional conceptual models tend to oversimplify these relationships, and their application towards river catchment nutrient management promotes insufficient characterisation of hydrogeological heterogeneity, which is subsequently not accounted for. Until recently, very little hydrogeological information and conceptual understanding existed for groundwater systems within the postglacial basement terranes of Scotland and Northern Ireland, due to an abundance of surface water resources and prevalence of poorly productive bedrock aquifers. Recent research has demonstrated the role of geological heterogeneity in determining the contaminant transport behaviour of these hard-rock aquifers, where the presence of weathering and fracturing can potentially result in the rapid delivery of nutrients to rural water supplies and groundwater-dependent ecosystems.

We aim to further elucidate the role of hydrogeological setting in river catchment nutrient dynamics to improve agricultural sustainability in geologically heterogeneous agricultural regions. This will be achieved by developing conceptual models of nutrient fate and transport for two contrasting agricultural river catchments. Here, we present preliminary conceptual models based on a literature review of groundwater systems within the same geological terranes, analysis of hydrochemical monitoring data, and accounting for catchment-specific features through desk studies of geological and airborne geophysical surveys.

The River Ythan is a groundwater-dominated lowland catchment within Scotland’s arable belt, designated a Nitrate Vulnerable Zone due to the eutrophication of its estuary. This catchment is geologically complex, with a variably metamorphosed and sheared Precambrian basement with igneous intrusions ranging from ultrabasic rocks to granite. This complexity is enhanced by the significant preservation of Tertiary weathering profiles and an extensive but discontinuous cover of glacial deposits derived from the saprolites. The superficial deposits create a shallow aquifer system characterized by oxic, well-mixed groundwaters with high nitrate concentrations. The bedrock groundwater bodies feature lower nitrate concentrations with variable denitrification rates, resulting from the relationships between lithology, tectonics, and weathering.

Two upland headwater sub-catchments of the Upper Bann River (Co. Down, Northern Ireland) drain either side of the contact between a granodiorite laccolith and Lower Palaeozoic metasedimentary rocks within an elevated drumlinoid landscape. Here, diffuse phosphorus exports to surface waters have not experienced the same extent of decline observed in storm runoff phosphorus following the implementation of nutrient management policies. Anoxic groundwaters favourable for denitrification may result in the release of previously adsorbed (legacy) phosphorus following the reductive dissolution of Fe (hydr)oxides. These conditions are generated by (a) confinement by thick, drumlinised clayey tills; and (b) bedrock structures promoting deep groundwater flow.

The site-specific conceptual models will be further developed through multi-scale geophysical characterisation of hydrogeological heterogeneity and constrained by the catchment-scale distribution of residence times derived from stable (2H, 18O) and radioactive (3H) isotope compositions of groundwaters. These refined conceptual models can guide the development of numerical groundwater models and spatially targeted nutrient management.

How to cite: Johnson, H., Comte, J.-C., Ofterdinger, U., Cassidy, R., and Troldborg, M.: Preliminary conceptual models of groundwater and nutrient dynamics in typical agricultural river catchments underlain by hard-rock aquifers in Scotland and Northern Ireland: The River Ythan and Upper Bann River Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9281, 2021.

The interaction between the shallow and deep groundwater systems is important for a number of issues on water resources and the environment but is difficult to evaluate directly. Here we use two-dimensional numerical simulations to show that the tidal response of deep aquifers may be significantly affected by capillary force on the water table. We propose a criterion to evaluate the capillary effect and apply the model to interpret the tidal response of the Arbuckle aquifer in a USGS deep monitoring well in Oklahoma. Our study suggests that the shallow and deep groundwater systems may interact across thick layers of intervening aquitards and that the analysis of the tidal response of deep aquifers may be an effective means to evaluate such interaction.

How to cite: Zhu, A. and Wang, C.-Y.: Capillary effect on the tidal response of buried aquifers – an interaction between shallow and deep groundwater systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9316, 2021.

HS8.2.4 – Estimation and application of groundwater ages and mean residence times

EGU21-3479 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Renewed thinking on groundwater age

Grant Ferguson, Mark Cuthbert, Kevin Befus, Tom Gleeson, Chandler Noyes, and Jennifer McIntosh

Groundwater age and mean residence times have been invoked as measures of groundwater sustainability, with the idea that old or "fossil" groundwater is non-renewable. This idea appears to come from the link between groundwater age and background recharge rates, which are also of questionable use in assessing the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals. The use of groundwater age to assess renewability is further complicated by its relationship with flow system geometry. Young groundwaters near recharge areas are not inherently more renewable than older groundwaters down gradient. Similarly, there is no reason to preferentially use groundwater from smaller aquifers, which will have smaller mean residence times than larger aquifers for the same recharge rate. In some cases, groundwater ages may provide some information where groundwater recharge rates were much higher in the past and systems are no longer being recharged. However, there are few examples where the relationship between depletion and changes in recharge over long time periods has been rigorously explored. Groundwater age measurements can provide insights into the functioning of groundwater flow systems and calibration targets for numerical models and we advocate for their continued use, but they are not a metric of sustainable development. Simple metrics to assess groundwater sustainability remain elusive and a more holistic approach is warranted to maintain water levels and environmental flows.

How to cite: Ferguson, G., Cuthbert, M., Befus, K., Gleeson, T., Noyes, C., and McIntosh, J.: Renewed thinking on groundwater age, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3479, 2021.

Climate warming leads to massive thaws of the northern permafrost that has increased the release of soil organic carbon (SOC) to streams and rivers partly as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The transport pathways of SOC releasing into porewater and entering into stream are undergoing profound hydrological changes triggered by permafrost thawing, yet the role that the groundwater plays in processing the permafrost derived DOC is ambiguous. Unravelling how subsurface flow affects permafrost sourced DOC processing is important especially in alpine watersheds of high-altitude permafrost region with extensive surface – groundwater interaction. Here, eight types of water were sampled from a small (25 km2), alpine (elevation 2960 to 4820 m a.s.l) watershed named Hulugou watershed (HLGW) with variably degraded permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) in July and September of 2012, 2013 and 2018. The three end-members (glacier-snow meltwater, precipitation, and frozen soil meltwater) analysis suggested contribution of frozen soil meltwater to all types of water with variable DOC levels (0.4 to 22.6 mg L-1, n = 113), as constrained by δ18O and electrical conductivity (EC). Spatial patterns of DOC quantity and quality between stream and subsurface waters (groundwater, spring, and seepage-II) point to differences in surface – groundwater exchanges in the upper-, mid- and lower stretch of the watershed. To evaluate the extent of DOC loss (ΔDOC), ΔDOC is calculated using an initial DOC (DOC0) estimated from mixing of three endmembers, minus the measured DOC concentration. The significant correlations between ΔDOC with proportion of protein-like fluorophores (r = -0.69, p < 0.01) and relatively aromatic C levels (r = -0.62, p = 0.02) indicate ΔDOC corresponding to the extent of microbial utilization of DOC in subsurface environment. Using previously established DOC biodegradation kinetics of 0.25 d-1 in headwaters of QTP, the mean transit time of groundwater is estimated to be 6 and 20 days based on changes in subsurface ΔDOC of 32% and 74% from the outlet of HLGW for July and September, respectively. The more rapid groundwater transit time corresponds to the higher concentration and more boilable DOC in July (3.5 mg L-1, protein-like: 98%) than in September (1.0 mg L-1, protein-like: 53±26%). Together with the mass balance of DOC input and export fluxes showing half loss of C in HLGW, our results indicate that rapid groundwater transit time is associated with permafrost derived DOC processing in alpine hillslope subject to warming.

How to cite: Sun, Y., Clauson, K., Zhou, M., Sun, Z., Zheng, C., and Zheng, Y.: Unraveling the groundwater transit time control of permafrost derived dissolved organic carbon processing in a hillslope headwater watershed of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-377, 2021.

EGU21-455 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Novel U and Th isotopic tracers for characterization of karstic freshwater and recent tufa from the Krka River (Croatia)

Leja Rovan, Sonja Lojen, Tea Zuliani, Tjaša Kanduč, Polona Vreča, Barbara Horvat, and Marko Štrok

The Krka River in Croatia is a specific groundwater-fed karstic river, characterized by complex hydrology and seasonally variable diffuse subsurface recharge. It represents a unique model system, where tufa is precipitating in a turbulent stream at morphologic discontinuities and in lentic environments. Tufa is especially attracting attention as a potential environmental archive that can provide insight into water-rock interactions, hydraulic connections, recharge, and terrestrial CO2 cycling in terms of storage, evasion, and transfer to the ocean. In a dynamic karst river system with alternating lentic and turbulent lotic sections, the carbonate precipitation rarely occurs in isotopic equilibrium for either C or O isotopes. Therefore, the use of traditional isotopes in river water (d18O, d2H, d13CDIC), tufa, surrounding bedrock, soil (d13CCaCO3, d18OCaCO3, d13CPOC) and geochemical parameters (Ca, Mg, Na, K, HCO3-) in river/carbonate system in combination with uranium (U) and thorium (Th) isotopic composition could increase the understanding of this complex karst hydrodynamic system and help with the identification and quantification of authigenic carbonate precipitated in the river.

River water samples, tufa, and surrounding bedrock and soil samples were collected at 11 locations, which were selected based on the spatial distribution of bedrock types and occurrence of tufa. Measurements of U and Th isotope ratios were carried out with multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) and for assessing U and Th concentrations, triple Quadrupole ICP-MS was used.

The study brought a new perspective to already known data on this highly sensitive karst eco-system. U concentration and the activity ratios of 234U/238U in the river show a decrease with the distance from the spring. U isotopic differences reflect the changing bedrock lithology and the mixing of waters from different sources. Therefore, U values show promise as a tracer for studying changes in host rock composition and hydraulic connections in the karst aquifer.

Tufa samples of the studied system demonstrate a much higher activity ratio of 234U/238U compared to the bedrock and soil. The 234U/238U ratio of carbonate in tufa is almost identical to that of the dissolved U in the river water, indicating that a majority of U present in tufa samples is co-precipitated with the carbonate from the river water. This assumption was confirmed with a much lower 234U/238U ratio of the non-carbonate fraction of tufa, which is comparable to that of the soil and bedrock, and the d18O and d13C values of carbonate in tufa, which confirmed its authigenic origin. 

The Th and U concentrations and their isotope ratios in carbonate materials from our study were shown to be reliable indicators of the storage of CO2 as authigenic carbonate in tufa. Moreover, they were also useful for the determination of tufa with U bond to detrital material and consequently relevant for both the construction of the CO2 mass balance in a karst aquifer, as well as for dating.

How to cite: Rovan, L., Lojen, S., Zuliani, T., Kanduč, T., Vreča, P., Horvat, B., and Štrok, M.: Novel U and Th isotopic tracers for characterization of karstic freshwater and recent tufa from the Krka River (Croatia), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-455, 2021.

EGU21-773 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Groundwater age from multi-level bores: What it can tell about the aquifers

Uwe Morgenstern and Zara Rawlinson

EGU21-1130 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Analytical expressions for past and present recharge interpretation of radiocarbon data in unconfined aquifers: application to Saharan aquifers

Amine Chekireb, Julio Goncalves, Bruno Hamelin, Pierre Deschamps, and Pierre Seraphin

In this study, we developed two-dimensional hydrodynamic age expressions for the free-surface aquifer problem required for radiocarbon data interpretation in terms of recharge. Time-varying recharge is accounted for in fully transient or pseudo-steady state alternative analytical expressions applying to weakly or highly hydraulically reactive unconfined aquifers, respectively. These expressions extending a previous model based on a constant recharge represent a convenient alternative approach to the more complex numerical resolution of a particle tracking problem considering climate variability. An application of the developed expressions was carried out to assess past (40ky) and present recharge rates for the North Western Saharan Aquifers System (NWSAS) and the Djeffara plain (Tunisia-Libya). Using the available 14C data at different outcrops, we obtained local recharge values ranging from 1.27 to 6.86 mm yr-1. A linear relation between the present recharge and the average annual rainfall was obtained and used to identify the regional distribution of the recharge and domain-averaged values. Global values of 1.32 ± 1.47 mm yr-1 for the NWSAS and 3.97 ± 1.46 mm yr-1 for the Djeffara are in excellent agreement with the values obtained by hydrogeological models and derived using Satellite gravity data. The relation between recharge and rainfall obtained here can be used as a first-order estimate for hydrogeological modeling or water management analysis for aquifers in the Saharan area.

How to cite: Chekireb, A., Goncalves, J., Hamelin, B., Deschamps, P., and Seraphin, P.: Analytical expressions for past and present recharge interpretation of radiocarbon data in unconfined aquifers: application to Saharan aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1130, 2021.

EGU21-1220 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Flow and residence time in a laboratory aquifer recharged by rainfall

Eric Lajeunesse, Valentin Jules, Olivier Devauchelle, Adrien Guérin, Claude Jaupart, and Pierre-Yves Lagrée

During rainfall, water infiltrates the soil, and percolates through the unsaturated zone until it reaches the water table. Groundwater then flows through the aquifer, and eventually emerges into streams to feed surface runoff. We reproduce this process in a  two-dimensional laboratory aquifer recharged by artificial rainfall. As rainwater infiltrates, it forms a body of groundwater which can exit the aquifer only through one of its sides. The outlet is located high above the base of the aquifer, and drives the flow upwards. The resulting vertical flow component violates the Dupuit-Boussinesq approximation. In this configuration, the velocity potential that drives the flow obeys the Laplace equation, the solution of which crucially depends on the boundary conditions. Noting that the water table barely deviates from the horizontal, we linearize the boundary condition at the free surface, and solve the flow equations in steady state. We derive an expression for the velocity potential, which accounts for the shape of the experimental streamlines and for the propagation rate of tracers through the aquifer. This theory allows us to calculate the travel times of tracers through the experimental aquifer, which are in agreement with the observations. The travel time distribution has an exponential tail, with a characteristic time that depends on the aspect ratio of the aquifer. This distribution depends essentially on the geometry of the groundwater flow, and is weakly sensitive to the hydrodynamic dispersion that occurs at the pore scale.

How to cite: Lajeunesse, E., Jules, V., Devauchelle, O., Guérin, A., Jaupart, C., and Lagrée, P.-Y.: Flow and residence time in a laboratory aquifer recharged by rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1220, 2021.

EGU21-4143 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Exploring the 36Cl/Cl input in arid environments: New insights gained by 81Kr groundwater dating in the Negev Desert, Israel

Roi Ram, Roland Purtschert, Christof Vockenhuber, Reika Yokochi, Eilon M. Adar, Jake C. Zappala, Yoseph Yechieli, Zheng-Tian Lu, Peter Mueller, Michael Bishof, Wei Jiang, Adrien Sy, and Avihu Burg

   36Cl and 81Kr (half-lives of 301 and 229 kyr, respectively) are among a very few age tracers with dating capabilities in the 104–106 yr timescale. Although widely applied since the 1980s in various hydrological studies, the 36Cl/Cl system has been found complex as an effective dating tool. In contrast, 81Kr has become a practical tool only recently and is considered to be an ideal dating tool due to the inert properties of the noble gas. In the present study, simultaneous measurements of both radioisotopes were used to assess the 36Cl/Cl input ratios and the Cl- content for paleorecharge into the deep, transboundary Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA) which stretches below the hyperarid deserts of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev (Israel).

   By means of 81Kr data, reconstructed Cl- content of recharge that occurred during the late Pleistocene was found to be 300–400 mg/L with an initial 36Cl/Cl ratio of 50 × 10-15. This latter value is in agreement with the 36Cl/Cl ratio in recent local rainwater, indicating constancy over prolonged periods with possible variable climatic conditions. This similarity in values suggests a process that is rather insensitive to atmospheric 36Cl fallout rates. Erosion and weathering of near-surface materials in the desert environment could dominate the hydrochemistry of rains, floods, and the consequent groundwater recharge. This near-surface Cl- reservoir integrates various sources and processes, including marine and terrestrial Cl-, cosmogenic 36Cl fallout, and cosmogenic 36Cl production in the shallow unsaturated zone, all of which are active over long timescales and accumulate on the land surface and in the epigene zone.  Spatial differences in the reconstructed initial 36Cl/Cl ratio are attributed to differences in the mineral aerosol sources for specific recharge areas of the NSA. The results of this study highlight the potential of integrating 81Kr age information in evaluating the initial 36Cl/Cl and Cl- input, which is essential for the calibration of 36Cl radioisotope as a long-term dating tool for a given basin.

How to cite: Ram, R., Purtschert, R., Vockenhuber, C., Yokochi, R., Adar, E. M., Zappala, J. C., Yechieli, Y., Lu, Z.-T., Mueller, P., Bishof, M., Jiang, W., Sy, A., and Burg, A.: Exploring the 36Cl/Cl input in arid environments: New insights gained by 81Kr groundwater dating in the Negev Desert, Israel, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4143, 2021.

EGU21-4326 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

 Evaluation of dissolved 4He as a groundwater age tracer in shallow fractured aquifers 

Thierry Labasque, Eliot Chatton, Virginie Vergnaud, Luc Aquilina, and Bouchez Camille

Anthropogenic gas tracers such as CFC, SF6, 85Kr, 36Cl or 3H have been widely used to study shallow groundwaters with residence time of less than 70 yr. For longer groundwater residence time (100- x1000 yr), 39Ar, 14C, 36Cl and 4He have been used. 4He can cover a dating range of 10 to thousands of years (Solomon et al., 1996). The main difficulty is to estimate the production rate through U and Th decay and the others fluxes: atmosphere, lithosphere and asthenosphere. In many cases U-Th production is not sufficient to explain the 4He concentrations observed in the aquifer. Other 4He fluxes can then be estimated through the use of other tracers: 14C, 36Cl or modeling. Fracturing may also enhance 4He concentrations in groundwater.

We present here the evaluation of 4He in a crystalline fractured aquifer in the Northwest of France (H+ national hydrogeological network), in order to investigate the range of groundwater residence time in this complex shallow aquifer. Previous studies on this aquifer reveal mixing between young (<70 yrs) and old waters (>1000 yrs) (Ayraud et al., 2008). The Helium radiogenic production rate is then evaluated through in situ production (U, Th, porosity), calibration with CFC and 14C, and modelling of the diffusion processes affecting 14C and 4He through physical characteristics of the aquifer (porosity, fracture spacing and aperture). Young groundwater residence times estimated by 4He agree with those estimated by CFC and 3H/3He. In this fractured media, old groundwater residence times (> 100 yr) are better estimated through the integration of the mass transfer between the fractures and the porous rock matrix through diffusion processes. 4He proves to be a valuable tool to characterize groundwater mixing processes and groundwater residence times from a decade to thousands of years.

Solomon, D. K., Hunt, A., & Poreda, R. J. (1996). Source of radiogenic helium 4 in shallow aquifers: Implications for dating young groundwater. Water Resources Research, 32(6), 1805-1813.

Ayraud, V., Aquilina, L., Labasque, T., Pauwels, H., Molenat, J., Pierson-Wickmann, A. C., ... & Fourre, E. (2008). Compartmentalization of physical and chemical properties in hard-rock aquifers deduced from chemical and groundwater age analyses. Applied geochemistry, 23(9), 2686-2707.

How to cite: Labasque, T., Chatton, E., Vergnaud, V., Aquilina, L., and Camille, B.:  Evaluation of dissolved 4He as a groundwater age tracer in shallow fractured aquifers , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4326, 2021.

EGU21-6887 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Mapping river recharge rates with stable isotopes and tritium-helium groundwater ages

Ate Visser, Laura Foglia, Helen Dahlke, Amelia Vankeuren, Maribeth Kniffin, Alisha Rodriguez, Andrew Calderwood, Miranda Fram, Amanda Deinhart, Erik Oerter, and Jeff Dozier

While climate change will challenge the future of California’s water resources, groundwater can buffer variability in precipitation and streamflow, if managed sustainably. Enhanced river recharge is an important tool to reach sustainable groundwater management in the California Central Valley (USA). Understanding and predicting recharge rates of river water, either natural river bank infiltration or managed aquifer recharge (MAR) during floods (Flood-MAR) or on agricultural land (Ag-MAR) is essential to evaluate the sustainability of groundwater management plans. Groundwater ages, combined with other isotopic and noble gas evidence, can elucidate surface water-groundwater interactions and support river recharge rates calculations over longer time periods.

Our study is focused on the recharge from the Cosumnes River in the California Central Valley. The Cosumnes River forms the boundary between the Sacramento Valley groundwater basin to the north and the San Joaquin Valley groundwater basin to the south. For this study, 28 new samples were collected for the analysis of 3H/3He age, noble gases, and stable isotopes. 25 additional samples from the California Waterboards Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Shallow Aquifer Assessment program were included, which were collected and analyzed by the USGS California Water Science Center in 2017.

We find that 28% of groundwater in the San Joaquin – Cosumnes groundwater subbasin originated as river water recharge, based on the interpolated mean δ18O (7.7 ‰ ), compared with river water (-9 ‰) and local precipitation recharge (-7 ‰) end-members. River water is a source of modern recharge, resulting in high tritium concentrations close to the Cosumnes River. In contrast, ambient groundwater from local precipitation recharge is predominantly pre-modern or fossil, containing less than 1 pCi/L tritium. Combining groundwater ages with the distance to the river, aquifer thickness, and porosity, estimates of river water recharge rate vary between 0.02 km3/yr and 0.035 km3/yr. These quantitative estimates of river water recharge will constrain the numerical groundwater flow model for this basin and aid groundwater managers in developing sustainability plans to balance groundwater pumping with recharge rates.

How to cite: Visser, A., Foglia, L., Dahlke, H., Vankeuren, A., Kniffin, M., Rodriguez, A., Calderwood, A., Fram, M., Deinhart, A., Oerter, E., and Dozier, J.: Mapping river recharge rates with stable isotopes and tritium-helium groundwater ages, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6887, 2021.

Aim of the study was to delineate an appropriate wide-ranging drinking water protection zone for the tapped main Walchhof spring, which is part of the public water supply of the small city of Radstadt in the region of Salzburg, Austria. The immediate hydrographic catchment area of the spring was geological mapped, various electric conductivity measurements at the river Taurach and its tributaries were carried out to detect potential high mineralised (SO4) karst water influx and fluorescence tracer tests were performed on the adjacent hydrographic catchment area above the tapped main spring. The Walchhof springs discharge approximate 500 L/s in a complex central-alpine setting within a tectonic window structure built of the Radstadt nappe with permeable carbonate rocks overthrusted by the Schladming-Seckau nappe with mostly non-permeable phyllite rocks. To identify the mean altitude of the catchment area and the Mean Residence Time (MRT) of the spring waters a combination of isotopes 2H/18O, 3H/3He, 13C/14C and tracer gases (CFC, SF6) was analysed. The 2H/18O-isotopes were analysed on weekly samples during 2019. 3H/3He, 13C/14C and (CFC, SF6) were sampled twice in April and October 2019.  The results indicate a wide-ranging hydrogeological catchment area (max. 90km2) at a mean altitude of 2000 ± 200 m and a mixture of old (10-20 yrs) and very old (several thousand years) waters. However, heavy rainfall and snow melt events can add (< 10%) very young water (MRT: days-weeks) to the tapped main Walchhof spring. The combination of these methods allows to reduce the wide-ranging drinking water protection zone mainly to the immediate hydrographic catchment area.

How to cite: Kralik, M., Zwack, T., and Stumpp, C.: Unusual old water ages of an Alpine karst spring (Central Eastern Alps): Hydrogeology, isotopes (18O/2H, 3H, 3He, 14C) and tracer gas analyses (CFC-11,-12,-113, SF6), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7907, 2021.

Large sedimentary basins represent major groundwater resources vital in sustaining terrestrial ecosystems and the various socio-economic activities essential to modern day society (drinking water supply, health, agriculture, energy, and industry). To address the ongoing and future impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on groundwater sustainability a better understanding of groundwater storage and flow dynamics in these multi-aquifer systems is crucial. Groundwater ages in this respect serve as an effective tool, providing valuable insight into rates and sources of groundwater recharge and subsurface heterogeneity. In this study we investigated the well-studied Aquitaine Basin located in Southwest France, the 2nd largest sedimentary basin in the country, with an extensive repository of hydrologic and geochemical data spanning several decades. A 3D regional numerical flow model was developed and extended to simulate reactive transport of radiogenic, 14C. An inverse modeling approach using available 14C activity data is implemented to infer groundwater ages and constrain modern and historic recharge sources and aquifer response times. Preliminary findings from spatial variations in 14C concentrations and groundwater ages point to the role of aquitards as important sources of recharge in regional scale, multi-aquifer systems.

How to cite: Fernandez, N., Pryet, A., Saltel, M., and Atteia, O.: Characterizing groundwater recharge dynamics and response times in large sedimentary basins using 14C age tracer data and a reactive transport modeling approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8006, 2021.

 

Access to fresh water is a critical humanitarian issue in many regions of the world and on the most important sustainable development goals. This crisis is exacerbated by the effects of climate change, pollutants, increases in demand and overuse. Fractured rock aquifers have been providing potable groundwater for many regions of the world, but there still many unknowns about the storage capacity, transit times and flow paths under changing climate scenarios. In this on-going study we aim to understand the magnitude of groundwater storage and Inter-basin flow for water supply development and sustainable use on the island of Tobago, WI. Samples of springs, surface water and production wells were analyzed for the stable isotopes of water (H2O) and strontium (Sr), tritium(3H) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The stable isotopes of water δDvsmow and δ18Ovsmow indicates that the groundwater in the northern region of the island is not hydrologically connected to the groundwater to the south because of their distinct D-excess signature.

87Sr/86Sr and Na-normalized strontium concentrations produces five possible mixing lines which radially increase from the lowest based value of 87Sr/86Sr ~ 0.70396 and Na/Sr (mg/L) ~0.00652. In detail, the maximum values of each line represent: extremes in Na concentration 87Sr/86Sr 0.70576 and Sr/Na 0.0008 mg/L, the groundwater to seawater mixing line87Sr/86Sr 0.70506 and Sr/Na 0.0023 mg/L, the precipitation to rock equilibration mixing line 87Sr/86Sr 0.70506 and Sr/Na 0.0023 mg/L, water located in silicate rocks to carbonate rocks mixing 87Sr/86Sr 0.70871 and Sr/Na 0.0085 mg/L, and wells that were once affected by seawater intrusion 87Sr/86Sr 0.70563 and Sr/Na 0.0692 mg/L.

Tritium results range from 0.02 to 0.60 TU and calculations suggest that wells contain a range of 2 to 44% modern groundwater. When compared to other islands at similar latitudinal locations, Tobago’s groundwater presents the lowest mean and median tritium values even though it is the closest to the equator. Basin flux and effective porosity were calculated for the 10 wells using the apparent age obtained from these results under the assumption of piston flow. It was found that all watershed volumes were magnitudes of orders larger than the sub-basins where the wells were located ranging between 0.09 km3 to 8.23 km3. Basin Flux and effective porosity also contain large range differences 1.40 *105 m3/yr to 9.93 *106 m3/yr, and 0.014 to 0.094, respectively.

This results also suggest that the groundwater in the southern regions of the island contains the oldest water with one well sample >60 years. SF6 results reflect similar ages except for 3 wells samples which are suspected to be contaminated by excess air. This novel discovery illustrates that small, fractured rock island aquifers can possess structural complexities that lead to older groundwater ages and variances in basin characteristics.

 

How to cite: Allen, M. and Boutt, D.: Assessment of flow paths and groundwater storage processes in an island fractured rock aquifer system using the stable isotopes of water (H2O) and strontium (Sr), and environmental tracers’ tritium (3H) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12262, 2021.

EGU21-12990 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Coupling geochemical and isotopic tracers (δ18O, δ2H and 87Sr/86Sr) to quantify groundwater mixing in carbonate environment

Thibaut Garin, Bernard Ladouche, Bruno Arfib, Benoit Dewandel, and Julio Goncalves

Carbonate aquifers are known as a major source for drinking water in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, qualitative and quantitative estimation of the groundwater resource are crucial, especially in area with densely populated areas.

In this study, geochemical and isotopic tracers (δ18O, δ2H and 87Sr/86Sr) have been used to discriminate different origins of groundwater and evaluate water-mass mixing in a Mediterranean carbonate environment. The case study, located in south-eastern France, offers an attractive geological context to explore strontium isotopic tracers: trias to cretaceous carbonate rocks, that have been eroded and locally resedimented in fluvial deposits during Oligocene extension and Quaternary periods. Moreover, many karst features act as sinking zones, generating fast infiltration. The 500 km² zone investigated has also a large range of elevation, from the sea to 1148m, giving an expected significant contrast in water isotopes. Monthly water samples have been collected in-situ for two years on ground and surface waters, in rivers, boreholes as well as karstic springs. Monthly rainwater samples provide the isotopic signal of the recharge at two distinct elevations and distance from the sea.

The hydrogeochemical signatures allow to discriminate the end-members of two main waterbodies as well as a slight marine influence on one borehole. Nitrates concentrations (NO3-) highlight anthropogenic influence on groundwater resources. A multi-tracer approach taking in account water-rock interaction, mixing processes and recharge, coupled with hydrogeological conditions and dye-tracing tests, leads to a conceptual model of this complex hydrosystem.

How to cite: Garin, T., Ladouche, B., Arfib, B., Dewandel, B., and Goncalves, J.: Coupling geochemical and isotopic tracers (δ18O, δ2H and 87Sr/86Sr) to quantify groundwater mixing in carbonate environment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12990, 2021.

EGU21-13517 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Water stable isotopes, radiocarbon, noble gases and krypton-81 study of thermal groundwater from Upper to Mid-Pleistocene recharge age in deep aquifers of Argentina.

Daniel Martinez, René Albouy, Leandro Bertolin, Wei Jiang, Eduardo Kruse, Claudio Lexow, Zheng-tian Lu, Jennifer Mabry, Takuya Matsumoto, Orlando Quiroz-Londoño, Florian Ritterbusch, Nicolo Romeo, Guo-min Yang, and Marcelo Zarate

Recharge environmental conditions and residence time, can be studied by the application of different tracers. Several tracers are useful as proxies of the environmental recharge conditions, such as water stable isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18, and the dissolved noble gases. Other tracers are applied in order to know when the recharge occurred. Carbon-14 dating is a widely applied method for dating old groundwater, having an application range up to around 30 ky. Noble gases, as non-reactive and water-soluble substances, constitute useful tracers for studying different processes in hydrologic cycles. One of the applications is dating very old groundwater beyond the range of 14C. It can be done in a semi-quantitative way by the accumulation of 4He, and quantitatively through the radionuclide 81Kr (t1/2 = 229,000 y), a more robust method for dating groundwater up to 1.3 million years.

The province of Buenos Aires, Argentina, hosts three deep sedimentary basins, from north to south, Salado, Claromecó and Colorado, with areas of 85,000 km2, 3,100 km2 and 125,000 km2, respectively. In these basins, a thick continental sequence of Neogene sediments contains confined thermal aquifers, at depths from hundreds meters to more than 1 km. The recharge conditions and the water age of the Neogene aquifers are studied through water stable isotopes, 4He and 81Kr tracers.  10 deep wells were sampled for δ2H, δ18O, 3H, 14C, for noble gases using clamped copper tubes, and for 81Kr with a gas extractor. 4He analyses were performed at the IAEA laboratory by mass spectrometry, and 81Kr at the ATTA laboratory of USTC.

3H contents were not detectable in all of the cases, thus no young water components exist. By plotting the isotopic results in a δ2H vs δ18O diagram, four groups of samples can be recognized. Group 1 includes Colorado basin isotopically depleted samples (δ18O from -6.5 to -7.5 ‰) along a line parallel to the GMWL and the present LMWL, but with a higher deuterium-excess (d). Samples in G1 have a Ne/He ratio around 0.6. 14C and 81Kr ages were from 10 ky to 40 ky. Group 2 includes the samples of the borders of the Salado basin, being isotopically more enriched (δ18O from -3 to -4.5 ‰) and with a lower d than present precipitation, a Ne/He ratio from 0.2 to 0.8 and one sample with 81Kr age of 640 ky. Group 3 is formed by brines from the Colorado basin, a Ne/He ratio in the range of 1E-02 to 1E-04, and 81Kr in ages around 900 ky, and are along a line of slope 1.9, showing a 18O shift. Finally the Group 4 formed by samples at the axis of Salado basin, are isotopically enriched (δ18O from -0.5 to -3.7 ‰) along a line of slope 3.9 resembling and evaporation line. However, these samples of 81Kr ages of 1000 ky and Ne/He ratio of 2E-03, showed a high correlation Cl- vs δ18O, with increasing values from West to East. This suggest a mixing with a brine or an increasing water-rock interaction.

How to cite: Martinez, D., Albouy, R., Bertolin, L., Jiang, W., Kruse, E., Lexow, C., Lu, Z., Mabry, J., Matsumoto, T., Quiroz-Londoño, O., Ritterbusch, F., Romeo, N., Yang, G., and Zarate, M.: Water stable isotopes, radiocarbon, noble gases and krypton-81 study of thermal groundwater from Upper to Mid-Pleistocene recharge age in deep aquifers of Argentina., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13517, 2021.

EGU21-14217 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Dating (81Kr) deep thermal groundwaters in the Upper Austrian part of the Alpine Foreland Basin

Doris Gross, Michael Heidinger, Gregor Götzl, Christian Kriegl, Martin Kralik, and Reinhard F. Sachsenhofer

The Alpine Foreland Basin (AFB) extends from Geneva to Vienna. It is an highly populated area and also hosts important industrial sites. The competition between different areas of utilization, including groundwater, mineral water, geothermal energy, oil and gas as well as underground gas storage increased within the last decades and is still increasing. Therefore, the understanding of the subsurface, the hydrostratigraphic units and their interactions is essential to develop cross-boundary concepts for sustainable management, economic development and security of supply.

The aims of a three-years project, funded by the ÖAW (Austrian Academy of Science), were to delineate and characterise hydrostratigraphic units, to recognise water composition and to determine possible flow pathways within the Upper Austrian part of the AFB. As main data sources, hydrochemistry, stable isotopes, dissolved noble gases of groundwater and isotopic groundwater ages were used to proof and improve hydrogeological concepts. This presentation focuses on the 81Kr investigations which were carried out within the project and were partly funded by the government.

Determining the age of deep groundwaters which are free of 14C has been almost impossible for a long time. Improved analytical methods make it now possible to use 81Kr for age characterisation. Therefore, nine water samples from deep wells representing different hydrostratigraphic units in the Upper Austrian AFB, were used for 81Kr investigations. These samples include water from Upper Jurassic geothermal reservoirs.

Results imply a differentiated picture of groundwater residence times. 81Kr model ages of Malmian water samples are uniform which is in line with hydrochemical analyses and stable isotopes of these samples. However, model ages are exceptional high (390000 – 550000 years) which would suggest low flow velocities. This seems to contradict all existing hydrogeological model concepts of a dynamic thermal water flow in Malmian carbonates. The water sample taken from the Eocene (Gallspach) exhibits a very old groundwater portion (> 900000 years), whereas samples from Oligocene strata show the youngest but strongly varying 81Kr model ages (<25000 – 240000 years). The water sample of Bad Schallerbach is interpreted as a complex mixed system between young and middle-aged deep groundwaters with elevated mineralisation. A contribution from a deeper aquifer is postulated for the water sample in Andorf (240000 years). 

In summary, results of the hydrochemical and stable isotope investigations together with the krypton analyses have shown that connections between the Upper Jurassic thermal water aquifer and younger groundwater systems (Eocene to Oligocene) are obvious. This confirms the hydrogeological model concepts, which assume a discharge of thermal waters east of the Upper Jurassic carbonate rocks into younger strata. Possible factors which may influence the model ages (e.g. diffusion processes, contact with formation waters containing hydrocarbons) were critically discussed on the gained database. However, the discrepancy between the derived 81Kr model ages of the Malmian thermal waters and the current hydrogeological models could not be resolved yet. Further investigations should focus on recharge areas and therefore on aligning age data and hydraulic models.

How to cite: Gross, D., Heidinger, M., Götzl, G., Kriegl, C., Kralik, M., and Sachsenhofer, R. F.: Dating (81Kr) deep thermal groundwaters in the Upper Austrian part of the Alpine Foreland Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14217, 2021.

EGU21-14492 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

How geomorphology shapes groundwater transit times at the hillslope scale?

Jean-Raynald De Dreuzy, Alexandre Gauvain, Sarah Leray, Jean Marçais, Clément Roques, Camille Vautier, Frédéric Gresselin, and Luc Aquilina

We investigate how geomorphological structures shape Transit Time Distributions (TTDs) in shallow aquifers. We show that the TTD is determined by integrated features of the groundwater structure and of the repartition of seepage in convergent/divergent hillslopes of constant slope. More specifically, the coefficient of variation of the TTD (standard deviation divided by the mean) scales linearly with the mean distance of the groundwater volume to the river. The extent and structure of seepage modify the groundwater contribution to the transit time distribution and increase its variability.

Extensive 3D simulations were performed to determine the TTDs synthetic convergent, straight and divergent hillslope models of constant slope. The recharge was applied uniformly on top of the aquifer and transferred to the receiving stream through steady-state groundwater flows, return flows and saturation excess overland flows. Without seepage, TTDs evolve from uniform- to power law-like- distributions depending on the average distance of the groundwater volume to the river. Remarkably, the coefficient of variation of the TTDs scales linearly with the groundwater volume to the river at any hillslope convergent/divergent rate in agreement with a theoretical prediction based on three analytical approximations. With seepage, the TTD progressively displays three separate modes corresponding (1) to the rapid saturation excess overland flows, (2) to the intermediary circulations ending up in seepage area and (3) to the slower circulations going from a recharge upstream the seepage zone to a discharge in the river. The coefficient of variation additionally depends on the extent of the seepage area.

Applied to a natural hillslope in the crystalline basement of Normandy (France), the same synthetic analysis demonstrates that the coefficient of variation is not only determined by the extent of the seepage zone but also by its structure in relation to the geomorphological local and global organizations. These results suggest the possibility to assess the variability of transit times by combining geomorphological analysis, surface soil saturation observations and environmental tracers.

How to cite: De Dreuzy, J.-R., Gauvain, A., Leray, S., Marçais, J., Roques, C., Vautier, C., Gresselin, F., and Aquilina, L.: How geomorphology shapes groundwater transit times at the hillslope scale?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14492, 2021.

EGU21-14725 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

TRACING GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS IN UPPER AUSTRIA USING 87Sr/86Sr ISOTOPE RATIOS

Virginia Foelserl, Johanna Irrgeher, Doris Groß, Reinhard F. Sachsenhofer, Gregor Götzl, Martin Kralik, and Michael Heidinger

The Upper Austrian Molasse Basin is not limited to the use of drinkable groundwater and balneological use of thermal waters. The extraction of crude oil and natural gas, the storage of natural gas and carbon dioxide, and the increasing use of thermal water as an alternative energy source are of high economic importance. In terms of water management, knowledge of the subsurface conditions, the different groundwater horizons, and their interactivity are indispensable. Already existing hydrodynamical models of the Malmian thermal aquifer, however, exhibit uncertainties due to low data density and lack of information. As part of a multi-year project funded by the ÖAW (Austrian Academy of Sciences), the data sets were expanded, among other things, by determining the strontium isotope ratios of selected water samples in Upper Austria. Therefore, concentrations of the most common cations and the strontium isotopic composition of 48 samples from 12 different aquifer horizons, ranging from shallow to artesian groundwater and geothermal and hydrocarbon wells were analyzed by using (MC) ICP-MS.
87Sr/86Sr ratios range from 0.70841 to 0.72740 and generally correlate with the respective host rock. The hydrostratigraphic horizons show characteristic strontium isotopic signatures, though they cannot be distinctly assigned to a single formation. Given variations in 87Sr/86Sr ratios can be traced in most instances. Thus, elevated 87Sr/86Sr ratios > 0.710 of a few samples of the Innviertel Group (0.70915 – 0.71167) can be explained by their sampling location at the crystalline boundary. Higher variability of results within formations, e.g., of the Linz-Melk Formation (0.70928 – 0.71160) in terms of both, 87Sr/86Sr ratio and strontium concentration suggest mixing processes with waters depleted in 87Sr. Equally large variations are shown in the results of waters from Eocene formations (0.70879 - 0.71011). In this case, supported by results of other hydrochemical data, even a multi-component mixing process is assumed. Samples of the Malmian thermal water (0.70971 - 0.71077) exhibit, with one exception, homogenous 87Sr/86Sr ratios below 0.710.
The results demonstrate the ability of strontium isotope ratio determination to confirm assumptions based on hydrochemical and physical data as well as to provide additional information about the dynamics of (deep) groundwater systems to identify mixing processes within formations.

How to cite: Foelserl, V., Irrgeher, J., Groß, D., Sachsenhofer, R. F., Götzl, G., Kralik, M., and Heidinger, M.: TRACING GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS IN UPPER AUSTRIA USING 87Sr/86Sr ISOTOPE RATIOS, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14725, 2021.

EGU21-15466 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.4

Investigation of runoff generation and Radon-222 activities in a forested catchment using HydroGeoSphere

Muhammad Usman Munir and Sven Frei

Radon (222Rn) is widely used as a natural tracer to investigate surface/groundwater interactions for hydrological systems. Because 222Rn activities in groundwater are higher compared to surface water, it can be used to quantify groundwater inflow rates into rivers and streams. Here we present a process-based model to simulate 222Rn emanation and transport in groundwater to investigate surface/groundwater interactions for the  Große Ohe catchment, located in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany). For representing surface and groundwater flow in the catchment as well as transport, decay, and emanation of 222Rn, the processed based hydrological model HydroGeosphere (HGS) is used. HGS is an integrated surface sub-surface hydrological model (ISSHM) which can simulate reactive transport in surface and sub-surface flow. The model was calibrated using measured in-stream 222Rn activities and continuous discharge observations. Main objective of this study is to investigate runoff generation in the catchment and how hydrological processes are affecting the age and residence time composition of groundwater.  

How to cite: Munir, M. U. and Frei, S.: Investigation of runoff generation and Radon-222 activities in a forested catchment using HydroGeoSphere, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15466, 2021.

HS8.2.8 – Field and modelling approaches to assess natural processes and engineering problems in the complex karst environment

EGU21-15209 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Identifying distributions of response times in karst aquifers

Fulvio Boano, Alberto Viglione, and Bartolomeo Vigna

In karst catchments, aquifer recharge occurs through a composite mosaic of subsurface flow paths. Precipitation infiltrates in the subsurface and flows along a complex network of fractures – that are characterized by different sizes and degrees of saturation –  before eventually reaching the catchment outlet. The discharge of a karst spring is the result of the contributions of these flow paths, that may differ widely in terms of lengths, velocities, and travel times. Monitoring the spring discharge can thus provide information about flow within the aquifer. In particular, the spring discharge signal can be interpreted as the lagged response of the aquifer to precipitation inputs over the catchment, with the aquifer being characterized by a distribution of response times that relates input (precipitation) to output (discharge). Identifying these response times is not a trivial task as the input-output problem is often mathematically ill-posed, which leads to amplification of the errors and may prevent finding a physically meaningful solution.

In this work we propose a method to evaluate the distribution of response times of a karst aquifer. The method, that was originally developed to deal with ill-posed problems in geostatistical applications, relies on a probabilistic description of precipitation inputs and discharge outputs, and it provides an estimate of the response time distribution and of its uncertainty. The method is here tested through the application to two datasets collected in two cave systems in Northern Italy (the Bossea system and the Vene/Fuse system) with different hydrogeological properties. The results demonstrate that the method successfully identifies different response time distributions that reflect the differences in aquifer characteristics of the two systems. Furthermore, differences among response time distributions relative to different precipitation events in each system provide valuable insights on seasonal variations in aquifer recharge and fracture saturation. The method can hence be applied as a tool for the indirect investigation of karst systems.

How to cite: Boano, F., Viglione, A., and Vigna, B.: Identifying distributions of response times in karst aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15209, 2021.

EGU21-8672 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Flow recession behavior of dendritic subsurface flow patterns

Jannick Strüven and Stefan Hergarten

Spring discharge curves can be seen as the fingerprint of an aquifer. In particular, the recession of flow after strong recharge events has been widely used for aquifer characterization. Several conceptual models for recession curve analysis were proposed. They either provide a mathematical fit to empirical relations or approximate a solution to the diffusion equation.

This study investigates the flow recession behavior of aquifers with preferential flow paths with a structure according to the concept of minimum energy dissipation.
Assuming a power-law relationship between hydraulic conductivity and porosity, the subsurface flow patterns used in our model are organized towards an optimal spatial distribution of these two parameters in a way that the total energy dissipation of the flow is minimized. This leads to two-dimensional dendritic network structures similar to river networks. Starting from a steady-state initial condition with a constant recharge rate we model the decrease of discharge over time, under the assumption of a linear storage behavior.

Our model produces recession curves that follow an exponential function at large time scales, which is a behavior often observed in nature and corresponds to many previous studies. The recession coefficient of this exponential decay shows a power law relation to the catchment size of each individual spring. This relation however is significantly less prevalent than for corresponding linear flow in 1 or 2D. 
Projecting the exponential portion of flow over the complete recession time period shows that the majority of available water is drained in this baseflow component. The overall share ranges from 85-100% but is independent from spring catchment sizes.

How to cite: Strüven, J. and Hergarten, S.: Flow recession behavior of dendritic subsurface flow patterns, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8672, 2021.

EGU21-8818 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Recession curve analysis in function of karst lake hydrogeological regime identification: case study Red Lake, Croatia

Adrijana Vrsalović, Ivo Andrić, and Ognjen Bonacci

Red Lake is an example of a karst phenomenon near the town of Imotski (Croatia), in the central part of Dinaric Karst. It is considered the deepest submerged karst feature in the world, located in an inaccessible area with large slopes of the lakeshore, which makes the research difficult and resource intensive. For this reason, to better understand the hydrogeological functioning of the lake, data on the water level in the lake, collected over a period of five years, were analyzed. The morphometric model of Red Lake was used to determine a relationship between lake volume and depth, furthermore to define integral water inflow and outflow quantities. Recession curves were extracted from the graphical representation of the water influx data series. The calculated recession coefficients were used to identify the dominant hydrogeologic mechanism respective to the water level in the lake and the ratio between recharge components of groundwater and direct runoff. The approach provides a tool for identifying the hydrogeological regime of karst lakes and the stratification of different porosity levels of the surrounding karst massif.

How to cite: Vrsalović, A., Andrić, I., and Bonacci, O.: Recession curve analysis in function of karst lake hydrogeological regime identification: case study Red Lake, Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8818, 2021.

EGU21-4009 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Proposal of a typology of karst systems functioning based on relevant indicators of karst springs hydrodynamics

Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, and Hervé Jourde

10% of the world’s population is dependent on karst water resources for drinking water. Understanding the functioning of these complex and heterogeneous systems is therefore a major challenge for long term water resource management. Over the past century, different methods have been developed to analyse hydrological series, and subsequently characterize the functioning of karst systems. These methods can be considered as a preliminary step in the development and design of hydrological models of karst functioning for sustainable water resource management. Recent progress in analytical tools, as well as the emergence of data bases of discharge time series (e.g. the French SNO KARST database and the WoKaS database at global scale) allow reconsidering former typology of karst system hydrodynamic responses. Ten karst systems and associated spring discharge time series were considered for developing the typology. The systems are well-known with a high-quality monitoring and they cover a wide range of hydrological functioning, which ensure the relevance of the analyses. The methodology for the assessment and the development of the typology consisted in (i) the analysis of springs discharge time series according to four different methods, (ii) the selection or proposal of the most relevant indicators of karst systems hydrodynamics, and (iii) the interpretation of the information from these indicators based on principal component analysis and clustering techniques. A typology of karst systems accounting for 6 different classes is finally proposed, based on 3 aspects of functioning: the capacity of dynamic storage, the draining dynamic of the capacitive function and the variability of the hydrological functioning. The typology was applied to a wider dataset composed of spring discharge of 78 karst systems. The results show a relevant distribution of the systems among the different classes.

How to cite: Cinkus, G., Mazzilli, N., and Jourde, H.: Proposal of a typology of karst systems functioning based on relevant indicators of karst springs hydrodynamics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4009, 2021.

EGU21-9987 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Understanding storage and discharge behavior of a high-elevated and geologically complex karst catchment using numerical approach, Dolomites (Alps)

Giorgia Lucianetti, Zhao Chen, Andreas Hartmann, and Roberto Mazza

Water resources from high-alpine karst aquifers are used for drinking, hydropower generation and artificial snowmaking. Therefore, understanding of their storage and flow dynamics is crucial for a sustainable water management. However, high-alpine karst areas are characterized by a great geological complexity due to the presence of mountain block fractured and karst aquifers interdigitating with the heterogeneous valley floor porous aquifers. For that reason, hydrogeological characterization and model prediction remains a big challenge. In this work, we investigated a geologically complex alpine catchment in the Dolomites (Italian Alps) by using experimental data and a reservoir numerical model to simulate three years of stream discharge. The structure of the model is based on experimental knowledge of the catchment and on previous studies and investigations. It (1) includes snow dynamics and accounts for hydrogeological heterogeneities, (2) separately considers karstic conduit and matrix flow in a dolomitic aquifer and flow through the porous deposits accumulating on the slopes and at the valley floor in an unconsolidated aquifer (non-karst), and (3) takes into account the groundwater transfer between the two aquifers. In the frame of a multi-step model evaluation, we used a Regional Sensitivity Analysis with three performance measures including observations of catchment discharge, karst spring discharge and unconsolidated aquifer spring discharge to assess the realism of model simulations. We show that the newly developed model reliably reproduces the hydrogeological variability of the catchment, even during strongly different hydroclimatic conditions. Analyzing its simulated storage dynamics, we can show that despite its moderate storage, the porous aquifer contributes most to catchment discharge, while the largest storage of the system is the matrix of the dolomite aquifer that recharges the unconsolidated aquifer together with discharge from the karstic conduits. A clear seasonality of groundwater storage in the karst matrix and of unconsolidated aquifer discharge indicates a strong sensitivity of this complex aquifer system to climatic variability.

How to cite: Lucianetti, G., Chen, Z., Hartmann, A., and Mazza, R.: Understanding storage and discharge behavior of a high-elevated and geologically complex karst catchment using numerical approach, Dolomites (Alps), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9987, 2021.

EGU21-10846 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Long term changes in the functioning of a karst aquifer under anthropogenic forcing

Cousquer Yohann and Jourde Hervé

A quantitative estimation of the sustainability of groundwater resources is a challenge for water supplies. This study focuses on karstic hydro systems, which provide water resources to a large part of the Mediterranean population. Here, we address the long-term changes in the functioning of the Lez karst aquifer, which has been providing water to the city of Montpellier since the XIXth century.  Before 1965, only the natural overflow of the spring was used, then pumping in the spring, down to -6.50 m below the overflow level of the spring, was performed until 1981. After this date, the management of the water resource consisted in pumping groundwater at a much greater flow rate (up to 2000 l/s) than the natural discharge during low flow (200 l/s), which seasonally generates important drawdowns (down to ~25 m) at regional scale.

The available time series consist in more than 70 years of discharge and water table (with some gaps) that encompass the three kinds of groundwater management, spanning from a passive management to the current active management. The change in water budget terms over time (before and after active management) highlights the modification of transfers and storage in the different karst compartments (epikarst, unsaturated zone, saturated zone), and the climatic variability of precipitation, evapotranspiration at inter-annual. A lumped parameter model was set up in order to simulate spring discharge, while accounting for surface water and grandwater level dynamics, and better assess the changes in the storage dynamics within the different compartments (matrix-conduits) of the karst. A robust parameter estimation, accounting for groundwater discharge and surface water discharge observations, has been conducted using a Monte-Carlo procedure. In order to obtaines a robust model, divers data type such as groundwater flow, surface flow and water level, have been used. [H1]  Once the model was calibrated over (1955-2020) reference period, several prospective management scenarios based on pumping discharge were simulated with an estimation of predictive uncertainty. This allowed evaluating the influence of pumping at large flow rate (active management) on the flux and storage on matrix-conduits exchanges of such karst hydrosystem. A modification on both the discharge rates and the direction of water exchanges between compartments, and especially between matrix and conduits, have been noted. The importance of climatic variability at inter-annual scale on water availability has been discussed as well.

How to cite: Yohann, C. and Hervé, J.: Long term changes in the functioning of a karst aquifer under anthropogenic forcing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10846, 2021.

EGU21-5868 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Understanding of reservoirs in karst: the case of Vora Bosco cave (Salento, Italy)

Tamara Leins, Isabella Serena Liso, Mario Parise, and Andreas Hartmann

Vora Bosco Cave is located in the Salento karst peninsula (Apulia, S Italy), surrounded by the Ionian and Adriatic Seas. In this part of Apulia, due to climate change, the typical Mediterranean climate is moving towards arid and semi-arid, with scarce or absent surface runoff. The Salento groundwater is a freshwater lens fluctuating on seawater, entering inland because of intrusion phenomena. The freshwater volume stored in the lens is subjected to both sea level rise and an increasing pressure caused by the high water demand, especially in summer time, for touristic purposes. Therefore, developing an understanding of the hydrogeological dynamics of the karst aquifer can be a useful tool for planning better protection and management actions on Apulian groundwater resources.

Vora Bosco cave was instrumented with a multi-parameter probe for groundwater level measurements from November 2017 to July 2018. Thereby, the system behaviour within the cave recharge area can be explored. To characterise and quantify the natural recharge and discharge behaviour of the system, a simple reservoir model was developed and calibrated with the measured data. The model consists of 4 reservoirs, which are filled and emptied using simple discharge equations. The model considers evapotranspiration from the soil, slow flow in the unsaturated and saturated zone, as well as fast flow in the karstic conduits. Daily data of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are used as model inputs. The model simulates the water level at Vora Bosco and is calibrated by comparison of simulated and measured water level, using the Kling-Gupta-Efficiency as an objective function. Our results reveal that the model simulations show acceptable performance in reflecting the dynamics of the observed water level data. The calibration achieves reasonable results for the model parameters. In addition to the water level simulations, quantifying predictions uncertainty by Monte Carlo approach, it is shown that there is still potential to produce more reliable estimates of future groundwater dynamics, in order to better manage the precious regional groundwater resources.

How to cite: Leins, T., Liso, I. S., Parise, M., and Hartmann, A.: Understanding of reservoirs in karst: the case of Vora Bosco cave (Salento, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5868, 2021.

EGU21-4150 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Relative impacts of climate change and anthropogenic forcing on karst spring discharge forecasting of a Mediterranean catchment

Vianney Sivelle, Hervé Jourde, Daniel Bittner, Naomi Mazzilli, and Yves Tramblay

The Mediterranean region is identified as a climate change hotspot, where future scenarios indicate an increase of temperature associated with a decrease of precipitation. Providing future scenarios of water resource availability considering both climate and anthropogenic changes on karst catchments remains a major challenge for hydrological sciences. The study concerns the Oeillal spring, which is one outlet of the karst catchment associated with the Fonfroide-Monredon massif (southern France), mainly composed by Jurassic limestones. We assess the relative effects of climate changes and anthropogenic forcing on the karst spring discharge by coupling 12 climate model simulations (GCM/RCM) under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with 3 hydrological models and considering 4 scenarios of groundwater abstraction for drinking water supply (no abstraction, present-day abstraction, +50 % abstraction and +100 % abstraction at horizon 2100).  We find that climate change has a major effect on the future evolution of the Oeillal spring’s discharge and that groundwater abstraction constitutes a secondary but non-negligible factor, which increases the occurrence of dry up of the Oeillal spring.

How to cite: Sivelle, V., Jourde, H., Bittner, D., Mazzilli, N., and Tramblay, Y.: Relative impacts of climate change and anthropogenic forcing on karst spring discharge forecasting of a Mediterranean catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4150, 2021.

EGU21-12181 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Modeling the discharge behavior of an alpine karst spring influenced by seasonal snow accumulation and melting based on a deep-learning approach

Tanja Liesch, Andreas Wunsch, Zhao Chen, and Nico Goldscheider

Karst systems are challenging to model due to their heterogeneous hydraulic properties resulting in highly variable discharge behavior. Distributed models can be applied to karst aquifers but require detailed system knowledge and extensive hydraulic parameter datasets; lumped-parameter models are less complex, but still require parametrization. In this work, we demonstrate the application of a data-driven approach to model the discharge behavior of the Aubach spring in the Gottesacker karst system in the northern Alps, a well-investigated study site for which previous models are available for comparison (Chen et al. 2018; Fandel et al. 2020). Our approach is based on convolutional neural networks (CNN), which have proved to be well suited for time series forecasting in water-related contexts like runoff modelling or groundwater level prediction (Wunsch et al.). The approach is comparably simple in terms of data requirements as we rely mainly on widely available and easy-to-measure parameters such as precipitation and temperature. By implementing Bayesian techniques (Monte-Carlo dropout) we are able to report the predictive uncertainty of the CNN based forecasts. Our results challenge existing modelling results based on lumped-parameter models in terms of common error measures such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Furthermore, we explore the important role of snow accumulation and melting by coupling our model with a snow-routine to better represent their influence on spring discharge and further improve model performance. Our results demonstrate that the presented machine-learning approach can be applied to simulate karst spring discharge and has certain advantages in comparison with conventional karst modelling approaches, which require hydraulic parameters that are often not available.

Chen, Z.; Hartmann, A.; Wagener, T.; Goldscheider, N. (2018) Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 22 (7), 3807–3823.

Fandel, C.; Ferré, T.; Chen, Z.; Renard, P.; Goldscheider, N. (2020) A model ensemble generator to explore structural uncertainty in karst systems with unmapped conduits. Hydrogeology journal, published online.

Wunsch, A.; Liesch, T.; Broda, S. (2020) Groundwater Level Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison of LSTM, CNN and NARX. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2020:1–23. https://doi.org/10/ghtcz3

How to cite: Liesch, T., Wunsch, A., Chen, Z., and Goldscheider, N.: Modeling the discharge behavior of an alpine karst spring influenced by seasonal snow accumulation and melting based on a deep-learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12181, 2021.

EGU21-12195 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Options for managed aquifer recharge of karst aquifer of Vis island (Croatia)

Staša Borović, Matko Patekar, Josip Terzić, Marco Pola, Marina Filipović, Maja Briški, Ivan Kosović, and Tomislav Novosel

Vis, a small remote island in the Adriatic Sea, inhabited since the time of ancient Greeks and Romans, exhibits a unique historical and natural environment. With an area of 89.7 km2, the island is mostly composed of karstified carbonate rocks and belongs to Dinaric karst region, locus typicus for karst landforms. Its distance from the mainland is around 50 km from the city of Split, 147 km from the Italian coastline and 18 km from neighbouring Hvar island. The climate on the island is Mediterranean with dry and hot summer and mild, rainy and humid winter (Csa). Vis island, due to its remote location, is not connected to the mainland by submarine water pipeline so it has autonomous water supply due to favourable geological and hydrological conditions which enabled the formation of excellent karst aquifers. The majority of water is abstracted from drilled wells in the central part of the island (Korita extraction site), around 40 l/s, while additional quantities are obtained from coastal spring of Pizdica. Although predominantly of good quality, existing groundwater quantities on Vis are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, namely increase in temperature, quantitative and temporal variability in precipitation trends as well as seawater intrusion. Moreover, Vis island is an attractive location for summer bathing tourism which causes the highest pressure on drinking water resources precisely during the hydrological minimum. An idea to apply artificial recharge of karst aquifer on Vis emerged during the 1970s, however, only on the theoretical level.

Through the scope of the DEEPWATER-CE project, funded by Interreg Central Europe Programme, the aim is to develop implementation frame for managed aquifer recharge (MAR) solutions. Simplified, MAR is a process by which excess surface water is directed into the ground — either by spreading on the surface, by using recharge wells, or by altering natural conditions to increase infiltration to replenish an aquifer (DILLON et al., 2019). Globally, various designs of MAR schemes have successfully been implemented in unconsolidated aquifers, but there is little experience with artificially recharging karst aquifers (ROLF, 2017). A particular challenge for the technical implementation and operation of MAR is posed by strong hydraulic anisotropy and heterogeneity of karst aquifers and by their high vulnerability to contamination (XANKE, 2017). To investigate whether a MAR operation is feasible and suitable for karst aquifer on Vis, a detailed field and laboratory investigations were carried out. Field investigations included in-situ measurements of physicochemical parameters on water samples from springs and boreholes, groundwater monitoring (conductivity, temperature and water levels), geophysical methods (ERT, magnetotellurics, and seismic refraction) and structural measurements. Laboratory analyses included measurements of stabile water isotopes, and principal cations and anions. Hence, by conducting extensive investigations, coupled with historical data and previous research, a foundation for implementing efficient and sustainable management of karst aquifer through MAR on Vis island will be provided. 

How to cite: Borović, S., Patekar, M., Terzić, J., Pola, M., Filipović, M., Briški, M., Kosović, I., and Novosel, T.: Options for managed aquifer recharge of karst aquifer of Vis island (Croatia), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12195, 2021.

EGU21-10142 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

The phenomenon of ascendant flow which characterizes karst springs, southern Apennines

Francesco Fiorillo, Guido Leone, Mauro Pagnozzi, Vittorio Catani, Giovanni Testa, and Libera Esposito

The hydraulic phenomenon of upwelling, affecting several karst springs of Apennines, has been investigated through water level monitored in several boreholes of different depth, and chemical-physical data of springs water. Three different springs in Campania region, southern Italy, were analyzed (Serino, Grassano and Caposele springs), characterized by different ground­water hydraulic schemes, but with the same upwelling phenomenon at the springs.

Even if the ascending groundwater flow is expected from the hydraulic features connected to the local and regional groundwater flow theory, these observations are original in areas analyzed.    

Some data (spring discharge and piezometric levels) have been acquired mainly from aqueduct companies, other data (physical-chemical param­eters and Radon values (222Rn)) have been collected ad hoc in spring waters.

All data pointed out that karst springs considered are fed by ground­water flux that locally is vertical; in some cases, CO2 and H2S dissolved gas in the deep groundwater are transported in surface by the ascendent flow, which can cause typical collapse sinkholes near the karst springs. All these features, common to others springs of Apennines, can be relevant in the realization of the tapping work, in their maintenance and for the definition of the protection area of the springs.

How to cite: Fiorillo, F., Leone, G., Pagnozzi, M., Catani, V., Testa, G., and Esposito, L.: The phenomenon of ascendant flow which characterizes karst springs, southern Apennines, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10142, 2021.

EGU21-2021 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Santa Cesarea Terme, a sulphuric acid speleogenetic system intensely influenced by marine waters

Ilenia M. D'Angeli, Jo De Waele, Adriano Fiorucci, Bartolomeo Vigna, Stefano M. Bernasconi, Lee Florea, Isabella S. Liso, and Mario Parise

Santa Cesarea Terme (SCT) karst system opens along the Adriatic coastline of Apulia (southern Italy) and is composed of four sub-horizontally caves Fetida, Sulfurea, Gattulla and Solfatara. Being influenced by rising sulphidic waters, it is used as thermal spa for human health treatments. The caves show interesting signs of hypogene sulphuric acid speleogenetic (SAS) activity such as peculiar morphologies and mineralogical by-products. From the geomorphological standpoint it is possible to observe ceiling cupolas, megacusps (former megascallops), rising channels, submerged feeders, weathered walls, replacement pockets, whereas for mineralogy sulphur, gypsum and jarosite deposits have been recorded. Despite the presence of extensive SAS features, SCT is also intensely influenced by marine water.

All these observations induced us to conduct a long-lasting (2015-2018) geochemical monitoring to understand intensity and tendency of the two main domains (rising acidic vs. marine).

Water sampling was done every 3-4 months at 4 sites in Fetida (2 in areas influenced by sea water movements, and 2 in the innermost zone, less but still influenced by sea), and 1 site in Gattulla. Moreover, 1 sampling site located along the coastline (sea water) was constantly monitoring for comparative reasons.

Collected groundwaters exhibit mean temperatures of 23 °C (7 °C higher than average annual air temperature) and circumneutral pH. All samples belong to the Na-Cl-SO4 type of waters. Sea waters display the highest pH (ranging between 8.15 and 8.20), [Na+], [K+], [Mg2+], [Cl-], [SO42-], and total dissolved solids (TDS), and on the other hands one of the innermost sampling site in Fetida Cave showed the highest values of temperature (29 °C), [HS-], [Ca2+] and the lowest pH (6.76). In addition, the Ba2+/Sr2+ ratio compared with Ca2+/HCO3- or Ca2+/SO42- clearly exhibit the presence of two main domains: rising acid and marine. In particular, the samples collected in the Adriatic Sea are always in the domain of marine influence, whilst all the others from Gattulla and Fetida, depending on sampling conditions (tides, waves, etc..), can fall in both domains.

Our investigations demonstrated rising sulphidic fluids to reach the surface through deep tectonic fractures and karst flowpaths, but seasonal effects due to modest water head variations (tides) and meteomarine conditions affect the geochemical variability, even in the innermost portion of the caves, inducing these slightly thermal acidic fluids to partially mix with marine waters.

How to cite: D'Angeli, I. M., De Waele, J., Fiorucci, A., Vigna, B., Bernasconi, S. M., Florea, L., Liso, I. S., and Parise, M.: Santa Cesarea Terme, a sulphuric acid speleogenetic system intensely influenced by marine waters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2021, 2021.

Localities containing karst features were studied in the northwestern part of Bohemian Cretaceous Basin. Namely Turnov area in facies transition between coarse-delta sandstones and marlstones (Jizera Formation, Turonian) and Miskovice area in limestones and sandy limestones - sandstones (Peruc-Korycany Formation, Cenomanian). Evolution of karst conduits is discussed elsewhere (Kůrková et al. 2019).

In both localities, disappearing streams, caves and karst springs with maximum discharge up to 100 L/s were documented. Geology and hydrogeology of this area was studied from many points of view to describe formation of karst conduits and characterize groundwater flow. Tracer tests were performed using NaCl and Na-fluoresceine between sinkholes and springs under various flow rates to evaluate residence times of water in conduits and to describe geometry of conduits. Breatkthrough curves of tracer tests were evaluated by means of Qtracer2 program (Field 2002). Groundwater flow velocity in channels starts at 0.6 km/day during low water levels up to 15 km/day during maximum water levels, the velocity increases logarithmically as a function of discharge. Similar karst conduits probably occur in other parts of Bohemian Cretaceous Basin where lot of large springs can be found.

Mean residence time of difussed flow based on tritium, CFC and SF6 sampled at karst springs is 20 years for 75% of water and 100 years for remaining 25%, based on binary mixing dispersion model. This shows that most of the water drained by karst conduits is infiltrated through the soil and fractured environment with relatively high residence time. Residence times in different types of wells and springs were also measured in whole north-western part of Bohemian Cretaceous Basin. Results indicate long residence times in semi-stagnant zones represented by monitoring wells and short residence times in preferential zones represented by springs and water-supply wells.

 

Research was funded by the Czech Science Foundation (GA CR No. 19-14082S), Czech Geological Survey – internal project 310250

 

Field M. (2002): The QTRACER2 program for Tracer Breakthrough Curve Analysis for Tracer Tests in Karstic Aquifers and Other hydrologic Systems. – U.S. Environmental protection agency hypertext multimedia publication in the Internet at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=54930.

Kůrková I., Bruthans J., Balák F., Slavík M., Schweigstillová J., Bruthansová J., Mikuš P., Grundloch J. (2019): Factors controlling evolution of karst conduits in sandy limestone and calcareous sandstone (Turnov area, Czech Republic). Journal of Hydrology: 574: 1062-1073

How to cite: Kůrková, I. and Bruthans, J.: Flow pattern and residence time of conduit flow and diffuse flow in calcareous sandstones (Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, Czech Republic), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10811, 2021.

EGU21-8769 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Testing the validity of different synthetic scenarios for flow and transport simulation in karst systems using a real case study application. 

Joanna Doummar, Nidal Farran, Marwan Fahs, Benjamin Belfort, and Thomas Graf

Climate change and pollution are posing additional unprecedented threats to existing water resources, especially to water supply from karst aquifers in Mediterranean and semi-arid regions. A numerical model considering the most important key hydraulic parameters can forecast the impact of any given input on model quality and quantity output. In this work, we propose to model flow and transport using Comsol multiphysics in a synthetic model and to apply it to a simplified real case study (Jeita spring in Lebanon supplying water to 1.5 million inhabitants). The model geometry consists of a 5300 m long variably saturated horizontal conduit portrayed as 1) 2-D continuum and/or 2) a channel draining a porous equivalent matrix (400 m thick). Flow is simulated using the Richards Equation in both saturated and unsaturated medium. Recharge is applied vertically as both diffuse and point source in a shaft linked to the conduit. Percentages of fast infiltration rates are obtained from the analysis of event time series recorded at the spring (electrical conductivity and discharge). Flow rates at the outlet are used for transient model calibration. Mean velocities, dispersivities, and phreatic conduit diameters obtained from tracer experiments under various flow periods are used for transport validation in the channel. The aim is to test the validity of a functional simplified flow model on a complex real case and to identify based on a sensitivity analysis the key parameters that allow an optimal calibration of such a model. 

How to cite: Doummar, J., Farran, N., Fahs, M., Belfort, B., and Graf, T.: Testing the validity of different synthetic scenarios for flow and transport simulation in karst systems using a real case study application. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8769, 2021.

EGU21-9488 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

The physical meaning of transport properties evaluated from BTC in karst conduit networks using transfer functions

Chaoqi Wang, Xiaoguang Wang, Vianney Sivelle, Samer Majdalani, Vincent Guinot, and Hervé Jourde

The Transfer Function (TF) approach, applying the Laplace transform, is known to be effective in interpreting tracer BreakThrough Curves (BTCs) in karst systems. Although this approach has several advantages over the classical Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE), the parameters of the TF are difficult to interpret directly in terms of transport properties, e.g., flow velocity and dispersion coefficient.

We present two approaches to relate the TF parameters to those of the ADE parameters. The first uses a consistency analysis, the other uses an asymptotic analysis in the Laplace space. The TF parameters can be transformed into equivalent ADE parameter groups that have an apparent physical meaning about the transport process. We further provide guidelines for choosing the suitable fitting models for artificial tracer tests and offer some suggestions for utilizing the TF approach in BTCs interpretation.

How to cite: Wang, C., Wang, X., Sivelle, V., Majdalani, S., Guinot, V., and Jourde, H.: The physical meaning of transport properties evaluated from BTC in karst conduit networks using transfer functions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9488, 2021.

EGU21-12255 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Flow partitioning in partially saturated fracture networks: Relation between dispersive properties and internal fracture geometry

Jannes Kordilla, Marco Dentz, and Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

Modeling of of infiltration and recharge dynamics in fractured-porous aquifers remain an extremely challenging task due to the formation of preferential pathways along fracture networks and hence deviation from classical diffuse Darcy-type percolation patterns. In contrast to soil systems the vadose zone of consolidated rock systems often reaches depths of several tens to hundreds of meters which limits the accessibility and complicates the application of moisture measurement techniques. Under partially-saturated conditions flow through percolating fracture networks contribute to the fastest spectrum of infiltration velocities. At fracture intersections flow is often fragmented into a vertical and horizontal component which controls the dispersive properties of the infiltrating fluid front. As hydraulic information in consolidated aquifers is often only available at boreholes or springs, we explore how internal fracture network geometries can potentially be reconstructed from external boundary information, e.g., the dispersive properties of discharge (groundwater level fluctuations). In order to relate boundary information, e.g. discharge measured at the water table within boreholes, to internal properties such as geometry of the fracture network and fluid-solid interaction properties we derive an approximate analytical solution for flow through a cascade of simple fracture intersections with the help of parallalized smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations [1]. Via linear response theory we derive expressions for the non-dimensional bulk flow velocities and dispersion coefficient to characterize the fracture network in terms in the dimensionless time scales of the vertical and horizontal fracture components. We demonstrate that the dispersion coefficient converges towards a universal value for a realistic range of fluid and solid properties and recover a characteristics Washburn-type scaling for the dimensionless velocity.

[1] Kordilla, J., Tartakovsky, A. M. and Dentz, M. (2020): Numerical and analytical modeling of flow partitioning in partially saturated fracture networks, Earth and Space Science Open Archive, pp. 44, doi:10.1002/essoar.10504345.1

How to cite: Kordilla, J., Dentz, M., and Tartakovsky, A. M.: Flow partitioning in partially saturated fracture networks: Relation between dispersive properties and internal fracture geometry, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12255, 2021.

EGU21-7645 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

A comparison of emerging contaminant fingerprinting techniques to assess the impact of human wastewater on karst groundwater quality

Luka Vucinic, David O'Connell, Donata Dubber, Patrice Behan, Quentin Crowley, Catherine Coxon, and Laurence Gill

Lowland karst aquifers in Ireland are extremely complex to understand and are considered to be highly vulnerable to pollution (e.g. low-lying karst catchments exhibit a lot of surface water – groundwater interactions which makes them very susceptible to direct contamination). These aquifers are impacted by multiple contamination sources on land (in particular, rural sources from agriculture and on-site domestic wastewater effluent) which makes their protection and management challenging. Human wastewater effluent is identified as significant threat to groundwater quality in such lowland Irish karst environments, since approximately one-third of the population in Ireland is relying on decentralized wastewater treatment systems for the treatment of domestic wastewater. However, it is difficult to distinguish between human wastewater effluent and agricultural pollution impacts on karst aquifers using only traditional water quality parameters or any single environmental tracing method. Hence, the impact of microbial and chemical contaminants of human wastewater origin on groundwater quality must be assessed using a multiple-tracer approach, ideally targeting source-specific tracers. This paper presents an overview of the results obtained during the research conducted throughout the last several years at nine karst catchments in Ireland using a range of methodologies in order to determine and quantify domestic wastewater pollution impacts on karst springs. Microbial pollution was assessed using flow cytometric fingerprinting and faecal indicator bacteria, while chemical pollution impact assessment included the analysis of fluorescent whitening compounds (FWCs; well-known indicators of human contamination since their origin is mostly from laundry detergents), specific anion ratio signatures (Cl/Br), quantification and identification of microplastic particles using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and faecal sterol and stanol profiles and ratios. A thorough analysis of the results obtained using a multiple-tracer approach has been conducted and methodologies have been evaluated in terms of applicability and sensitivity in a range of different karst catchments. The ability of these methodologies and techniques to determine and quantify human faecal pollution impacts on karst springs will be discussed. The results show a significant correlation between microplastic particle counts and detected FWCs signals at different springs, which helps to understand the contribution of household-derived contaminants to this environmental problem. Moreover, our results indicate that faecal sterols and stanols can be useful faecal source tracking method in karst aquifer systems despite the fact that concentrations of sterols and stanols of interest were usually low which makes the interpretation of results challenging.

How to cite: Vucinic, L., O'Connell, D., Dubber, D., Behan, P., Crowley, Q., Coxon, C., and Gill, L.: A comparison of emerging contaminant fingerprinting techniques to assess the impact of human wastewater on karst groundwater quality, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7645, 2021.

EGU21-4572 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Surface-groundwater interactions in karst: overview, concept and mapping

Natasa Ravbar, Cyril Mayaud, Matej Blatnik, and Metka Petrič

Under special meteorological and hydrological circumstances, shallow karst areas and karst poljes may experience surface water overflow. As a result, surface- groundwater interaction occurs usually creating intermittent lakes. Although human settlements and activities have traditionally adapted to these natural conditions, extensive temporary floods are classified among the most common natural disasters in karst. On the other hand, intermittent lakes are considered as natural reservoirs of excess recharge and good flood regulators in the lower parts of river basins. Due to specific ecohydrological processes and environmental conditions, these areas host unique wetland ecosystems with high levels of biodiversity and provide various ecosystem services, such as ecological productivity, photosynthesis and carbon storage. Given the dynamic nature of hydrological processes in karst aquifers, a distinctive feature of the phenomena described is its high variability of occurrence and duration. Therefore, the identification, characterization as well as the determination of the spatial dimension of flood levels is a challenging task. Focusing on the Slovenian karst, a literature review and analysis of topographical and hydrological data of the selected study areas was conducted. The hydrological analyses were based on long-term monitoring data from Slovenian Environmental Agency and partly on the authors' own database of field measurements and knowledge of the areas concerned. Consequently, the conceptual framework and the key criterion for the determination and recording of areas subject to temporary flooding were developed. A systematic survey reveals the significance of the extent, duration and frequency of flooding. Evaluation results are useful to designers of various water policies and management mechanisms for flood mitigation and protection of special habitats. Observing trends in the spatial and temporal dynamics of flood levels is also valuable for understanding how and to what extent karst aquifers are vulnerable to environmental changes. Finally, the analyses also enable prediction of the effects of these changes on other parts of the environment (e.g., hydrophilic habitats).

How to cite: Ravbar, N., Mayaud, C., Blatnik, M., and Petrič, M.: Surface-groundwater interactions in karst: overview, concept and mapping, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4572, 2021.

EGU21-13518 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Geophysical measurements in an abandoned old railway tunnel located in a karst area

Enzo Rizzo, Luigi Capozzoli, Gregory De Martino, Giacomo Fornasari, and Valeria Giampaolo

Carbonate aquifers in karst systems are very important water reservoir and are recognized as the most difficult to characterize. The purpose of this article is to present a project aimed to understand the circulation of fluids in carbonate reservoirs through innovative hydrogeophysical methodologies both in the laboratory and in the field. The test site is located in the Castel di Lepre karst system, which is disposed in the Mezo-Cenozoic carbonate substratum of the Monti della Maddalena ridge (Southern Appenines). In the karst area are located several caves, but the presence of an artificial tunnel (disused railway tunnel) could give the opportunity to characterize the whole area and the fluid circulation by multisensors geophysical sensors installed inside the karst aquifer. This natural laboratory permits to define an Applied Geophysics strategy developing several main topics from an engineering to hydrogeological point of view. Firstly, the geophysical investigations conducted, without altering the structure and in a fast manner, obtains important information concerning the construction of the tunnel, and the interaction between the infrastructure and surrounding rock, in that area that we define infrastructural critical zone. The study conducted aims to highlight the potential and any limitations of the use of geophysical techniques applied to infrastructures, emphasizing the emerging role of urban geophysics for the importance and topicality of its contents as well as the important innovations that the use of these techniques they can contribute to the hazardous processes. Secondly, the geophysical methods are used as a tool to characterize the fluid circulation by hydrogeophysal sensors installed inside the karst aquifer. The hydrogeophysics arose as an interdisciplinary field that focuses on the improved understanding of hydrological processes through geophysical observation. These approaches aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of environmental problems.

How to cite: Rizzo, E., Capozzoli, L., De Martino, G., Fornasari, G., and Giampaolo, V.: Geophysical measurements in an abandoned old railway tunnel located in a karst area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13518, 2021.

EGU21-2366 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Geoengineering problems and solutions in the Murge karst (Apulia, SE Italy)

Gioacchino Francesco Andriani, Giuseppe Diprizio, Isabella Serena Liso, Lidia Loiotine, and Mario Parise

The Murge area extends for about 6000 km2 and is represented by a NW–SE karst plateau whose elevation decreases by means of fault-bounded displaced blocks toward NE, from about 680 m a.s.l. (High Murge) down to the Adriatic sea (Low Murge and Apulian Adriatic shelf). Geologically, it consists of a 3 km-thick Cretaceous carbonate succession of well-bedded limestones and dolomites, locally covered by thin Late Pliocene-Quaternary deposits, namely calcarenites and subordinate sands and clays. From the end of Cretaceous up to Pliocene, the Murge area experienced a long period of exposure which favored the development of karst processes responsible for the genesis of surface and underground features, like swallow holes, dolines, dry valleys, poljes and caves. In particular, the main cave and conduit systems develop in the first tens of metres from the ground, involving entirely the epikarst or subcutaneous zone. 

Many are the geoengineering problems in this area due to complexity of the karst landscape and of the underground drainage system. Some of them regard the hydrogeological and hydrological aspects, involving aquifer pollution and groundwater contamination, or flash floods related to clustered rainfall and the related sudden runoff; other problems result from rock or soil failure mechanisms through occurrence of collapse and suffosion sinkholes. In the Murge karst, collapse sinkholes occur both as natural phenomena, linked to karst caves, but they can be also induced by anthropogenic cavities, consisting of excavation by man for shelter, cultural proposes or where rocks were mined to be used as building material. In particular, the occurrence of sinkholes results typically from sudden collapses of the roof of underground voids, and have been at the origin of casualties and severe damage. Subtle and gradual suffosion sinkholes develop where seepage erosion occurs in sandy soils whose grains settle into voids in the underlying carbonate rocks. This mechanism induces differential settlements and rotations of foundations, leading to instability of buildings and other structures.

Numerous remedial and preventive solutions dealing with geoengineering aspects in karst can be adopted due to the complex peculiarities and high variability of the Murge landscape. Thus, the selection of appropriate measures to predict and remediate future damage scenarios becomes very important and require i) the development of detailed geological and engineering geological models, and ii) careful understanding of the geological hazards, and of their likely effects.

The main difficulties for planning and monitoring actions are linked to the implementation of integrated methods capable of exploring and modeling carbonate rock masses and their structural uncertainty in the karst environment. Multi‐technique geophysical methods, integrated with geotechnical surveys (including borehole drillings) can be adopted for passing from a conceptual geological model to an observational engineering-geological model, constrained by data from site-specific ground investigation and laboratory tests. The next step is then constituted by assessing analytical and numerical models which usually require considerable simplifications of the engineering geological model and can be used as general guidelines for designing mitigation and remediation measures.

How to cite: Andriani, G. F., Diprizio, G., Liso, I. S., Loiotine, L., and Parise, M.: Geoengineering problems and solutions in the Murge karst (Apulia, SE Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2366, 2021.

EGU21-2154 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Sinkhole susceptibility evaluation in Apulia, southern Italy

Carmela Vennari, Mauro Rossi, Luca Pisano, Veronica Zumpano, and Mario Parise

In some regions in Italy sinkholes are frequent and pose a serious threat to structures and infrastructures. Apulia region is largely affected by sinkholes of both natural and anthropogenic origin, due to the karst nature of large portions of the regional territory and to high diffusion of artificial cavities.

For this reasons, susceptibility, hazard and risk posed by sinkholes must be estimated in order to gain more insights into their spatial and temporal distribution, and to apply appropriate risk management and to take proper mitigation strategies.

In order to estimate the susceptibility to sinkholes in Apulia, the ensemble statistical modelling proposed by Rossi et al. (2010) and later refined by Rossi & Reichenbach (2016) is used. This allows assessing susceptibility using differentiated statistical approaches, quantifying accurately the modelling performances, and evaluating the associated uncertainty. In order to obtain accurate and reliable results thematic layers related to the sinkholes occurrence were carefully evauated and selected. This contribution shows the preliminary results of the analyses to evaluate the susceptibility to natural sinkholes, which used  as training dependent (i.e. grouping) set, data extracted from the regional inventory of natural caves, edited by the Apulian Speleological Federation (www.catasto.fspuglia.it), and as validation set the natural sinkholes occurred in Apulia, collected in the chronological catalogue of sinkholes in Italy (Parise & Vennari, 2013, 2017). Appropriate thematic layers, were selected heuristically on the base of the knowledge on the triggering mechanisms and the nature of the phenomenon gained previously in the study area.

Resulting regional-scale susceptibility map will be appropriately validated. The methodological procedure will be applied to the evaluation of susceptibility for anthropogenic sinkholes as well.

References

Parise M. & Vennari C. (2017) Distribution and features of natural and anthropogenic sinkholes in Apulia. In: Renard P. & Bertrand C. (Eds.), EuroKarst 2016, Neuchatel. Advances in the hydrogeology of karst and carbonate reservoirs. Springer, ISBN 978-3-319-45464-1, p. 27-34.

Parise M. & Vennari C. (2013) A chronological catalogue of sinkholes in Italy: the first step toward a real evaluation of the sinkhole hazard. Proceedings 8th Multidisciplinary Conference on Sinkholes & the Engineering and Environmental Impacts of Karst, Carlsbad, USA.

Rossi, M. & Reichenbach P. (2016) LAND-SE: a software for statistically based landslide susceptibility zonation, version 1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(10).

Rossi M., Guzzetti F., Reichenbach P., Mondini A. C., Peruccacci S. (2010) Optimal landslide susceptibility zonation based on multiple forecasts, Geomorphology, 114, 129–142.

How to cite: Vennari, C., Rossi, M., Pisano, L., Zumpano, V., and Parise, M.: Sinkhole susceptibility evaluation in Apulia, southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2154, 2021.

EGU21-489 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Tectonic control on groundwater flow in a karst polje of southern Italy

Isabella Serena Liso, Costantino Masciopinto, and Mario Parise

In the last decades, climate changes are affecting the freshwater resources quality and quantity around the globe, reducing their availability. On Earth, glaciers and ice cap occupy 68,7%, but they are not easily usable for human purposes; groundwater stands for 30,1%, while surface waters represent the remaining 1,2%. Therefore, groundwater resource is by far the most important natural tank to be preserved.

In karst, scientists are still working on developing new methods to understand the true groundwater hydrological behavior, due to subsoil anisotropy in both space and time. This requires a deep knowledge about discontinuity systems in the carbonates, and to improve our comprehension of karst processes, as basic elements for modelling.

The possibility to collect data directly from the subsoil, thanks to speleological explorations, is a precious chance for hydrogeology, and in general, for the environmental sciences. In this contribution we take advantage from a variety of speleological data, plus traditional geological surveys, to study groundwater flow in the karst of Apulia. Many karst processes, indeed, affect the Cretaceous limestones belonging to the Apulia carbonate platform, where the deepest cave in the region opens in the Canale di Pirro polje (altitude 300m a.s.l.). This latter is a W-E elongated tectonic-karst valley, representing one of the most significant karst landforms in this sector of Apulia. The cave reaches groundwater at a depth of -260m from the ground surface, whilst additional 60m below the water table have been explored by diving the flooded channels (total depth of the cave 320m).

We deal here with characterization of water flow direction into the fractured and karst aquifer, using a combined approach consisting of analysis of: i) primary and secondary discontinuities, ii) shape, size and orientation of karst conduits, and iii) geometry of the intersections between fractures and karst features.

The discontinuities have been analyzed with classical geological survey at the surface, and a semi-automatic extraction of their statistical properties, using the FracPaQ software. To characterize the water flow into the karst channels, we started from collection of available speleological maps of caves in the study area, in order to assess their main directions of development . From this analysis, some preliminary links were summarized: on the polje ridges, the prevailing discontinuity systems were well correlated with cave development, and, in turn, with the main regional tectonic directions (respectively, the SW-NE anti-Apennine, and the NW-SE Apennine systems). At the polje bottom, on the other hand, direction of cave segments and discontinuities are about similar, following the Canale di Pirro polje main elongation (W-E).

This first comparison among data from different sources eventually points out that water flows underground following the main structural lineations. These data, together with results of the groundwater flow model, confirm the key role of geo-structural control on karst development, and the possibility of variations at the local scale, as observed at the polje bottom. In karst, the integrated approach of geo-structural discontinuities and karst features and geometry is therefore a fundamental tool to gain insights into the understanding of the main groundwater flow directions.

How to cite: Liso, I. S., Masciopinto, C., and Parise, M.: Tectonic control on groundwater flow in a karst polje of southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-489, 2021.

EGU21-14290 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

The pattern of the tectonic joints and the development of the Vlychada karst show cave in Diros, Peloponnesus, Greece

Christos Filis, Emmanuel Skourtsos, Nikolaos Karalemas, Vasilios Giannopoulos, Ioannis Giannopoulos, Evangelia Kotsi, and Efthimios Lekkas

The most characteristic feature of carbonate rocks is that they are prone to dissolution due to the meteoric water circulation which is enriched in CO2. One of the factors influencing this phenomenon is the existence of discontinuities within the mass of carbonate rocks. The Diros Vlychada show cave, on the peninsula of Mani in Peloponnese, Greece, has developed in marbles that belong to the Plattenkalk geotectonic unit. Most of the cave is flooded with water and its level changes depending on the external weather conditions and variations in sea level. The deformation of the marbles is represented by tectonic structures formed during the Lower Miocene metamorphism and their subsequent exhumation. The final uplift stage took place during the Pliocene-Quaternary and is still active. Five joints systems were distinguished:

A NW-SE joint system which is subdivided into a subsystem with low-angle dips, mainly towards to the NW, related to the main foliation of the marbles and a second subsystem characterized by stretching joints of the same strike (elongated joints), which have high-angle dips, also towards the NW. The latter system intersects the former but is confined between marble bedding and does not extend to more than three beds (the bedding is defined by the first subsystem).

A NW-SE striking joint system characterized by stretching joints with high-angle dips, which intersects diagonally the two previous. This system extends between more than three marble beds.

Two systems show E-W and N-S strike with the first one much better expressed. Those joints have developed diagonally to the previous ones. These are mainly shear joints that intersect the first system and are propagated within many marble beds.

The chambers of the cave have been developed along NW-SE and E-W directions. The first one is identified with the joint system that has been developed transversely to the strike of the marble foliation and the second in parallel with the main system of the shear joints. It is interesting that the bays forming the coastline of the Mani peninsula, have developed in an E-W direction, which coincides with both one of the growth directions of the cave and one of the joints systems, which correspond to shear joints developed during the folding of the marbles. Stalactites and stalagmites grow in a NE-SW direction that is identical to the elongated joints which form the system that is parallel to the foliation strike. Groundwater flow along these branches may be slower as these branches appear to be restricted between marble bedding.

How to cite: Filis, C., Skourtsos, E., Karalemas, N., Giannopoulos, V., Giannopoulos, I., Kotsi, E., and Lekkas, E.: The pattern of the tectonic joints and the development of the Vlychada karst show cave in Diros, Peloponnesus, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14290, 2021.

EGU21-3713 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

Karst generation in three-dimensional jointed layered rocks

Chuanyin Jiang and Xiaoguang Wang

We use numerical models to investigate the generation of incipient karst in layered geological systems, and specifically to investigate the effects of the structural and hydraulic properties of both joints and bedding planes on the distribution of the developed karst cavities. We develop a numerical model which couples the processes of fluid flow, mass transport and dissolution kinetics that govern the growth of fracture aperture, based on three-dimensional discrete fracture networks. The synthetic fracture networks made up of two jointed layers separated by a horizontal bedding plane are generated to represent the typical layered fracture systems often formed in carbonate rocks. We assume a relatively uniform aperture field with a small variance for each joint set and for the bedding plane, but different joint sets and the bedding plane can have non-identical mean apertures. Results show that the aperture ratio of the joint sets to the bedding plane is found to dominate the flow heterogeneity on the bedding plane, leading to various behaviors of karst development. We further suggest that the distinct flow regimes, i.e., joint-dominated, transitional and bedding plane-dominated, controlled by the magnitude of the aperture ratio, are responsible for the different types of incipient karst morphologies. Our investigations have an important application on the understanding of clustering behaviors of karst cavities in layered fractured carbonate rocks.

 

How to cite: Jiang, C. and Wang, X.: Karst generation in three-dimensional jointed layered rocks, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3713, 2021.

EGU21-10749 | vPICO presentations | HS8.2.8

A Karst Probability Map for the Western Mountain Aquifer (Israel & West Bank) using a stochastic modeling approach 

Sandra Banusch, Márk Somogyvári, Martin Sauter, Philippe Renard, and Irina Engelhardt

Investigating the structure of conduit networks in karst aquifers is a common challenge when working in these complex hydrogeological environments. The network geometry plays an important role in karst flow dynamics, but highly karstified areas are often difficult to characterize by field measurements. Here, we present a methodology that generates karst conduit network geometries reasonably quick without solving complex flow or dissolution equations, and that uses only little input information. The stochastic approach also enables the investigation of the uncertainty of generated networks in the form of a karst probability map.

The “Stochastic Karst Simulator” (SKS) is a stochastic modeling approach developed by Borghi et al. (2012) to generate a 3D karst conduit network by computing a minimum effort path between the given inlet and outlet points. This study uses such a modeling approach to characterize the karst network geometry of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA), a highly karstified and exploited carbonate aquifer located in Israel and the West Bank. The SKS simulations are based on a conceptual model of the aquifer’s karst genesis, to identify the position of karst springs and recharge zones over past geological ages.

Three different phases of karst formation are identified for the WMA. Phase 1: a paleo-discharge zone exists, located close to the present-day coastline of Israel, phase 2: a period of extreme low sea levels during the Messinian salinity crisis, when paleo-canyons were reactivated along this coastline, and phase 3: the modern-day outlets of the aquifer. The iterative approach of the SKS algorithm accounts for these different phases and creates new conduit pathways by building on ones formed in earlier phases. The algorithm also uses the hydrological model of the study site as soft information, providing knowledge about the internal heterogeneities of the karst formations (e.g. statistical properties of fractures). The resulting karst probability map is compared to the location of the most productive pumping wells in the region, assuming a high yield in groundwater abstraction indicating major karst conduits near the pumped well. 

We demonstrate the method by showing a reconstruction of the karst conduit networks at the WMA model area, an otherwise not available spatial information. The simulations show that the changes in karst spring and recharge locations have a great impact on the geometry and connectivity of the conduit network. Overarching trends in the conduit orientation of the resulting probability map are in keeping with the proposed karst genesis model, resulting in the evolution of a hierarchical network. High karstification is indicated around modern-day springs, also in agreement with the location of numerous pumping wells in that region.

The SKS algorithm is a useful tool to test different hypotheses of karst genesis and to understand the evolution of karst network geometries. The methodology is numerically efficient, and its inputs can be easily adjusted. Soft information on karst development allows for the generation of a sound hydraulic parameter field, which can be implemented in hydrological models to better understand and manage these aquifer systems.

How to cite: Banusch, S., Somogyvári, M., Sauter, M., Renard, P., and Engelhardt, I.: A Karst Probability Map for the Western Mountain Aquifer (Israel & West Bank) using a stochastic modeling approach , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10749, 2021.

Spatial characterization of the hydraulic properties in the subsurface is an extensively studied problematic. Inverse problems allow to image those properties by interpreting the information from a dataset of field measurements with a chosen physical formulation of fluxes in a numerical distributed model. However, karst media characterization remains a complex task, due to the fact that the matrix and conduits entities generate a highly contrasted distribution of property values. Thus, one needs to employ an inversion method able to represent this contrast and also use data providing information on the localization of the conduits network and its connectivity.

We propose a large-scale 2-D application of characterization of the Lez aquifer in southern France, covering a surface of about 400 km². We take advantages of long-terms measurements within the framework of the MEDYCYSS observation site, part of the Karst observatory network (www.snokarst.org) initiated by the French institute INSU/CNRS. Drawdown signals measured in 14 wells incorporating a periodic response due to a daily pumping at the aquifers spring were thus considered for this study. The periodic responses can provide connectivity information between wells in the inversion process, while non-periodic responses will permit to better assess the large-scale property values of the whole hydrosystem. A Cellular Automata-based Deterministic Inversion (CADI) is used to generate a contrasted property field able to reproduce the measured signals in the 2-D distributed numerical model. This application is led with responses obtained at a high water-table level and also at a lower level in order to highlight the change in connectivity and flow paths mobilized at different depths.

How to cite: Fischer, P. and Jourde, H.: Large-scale spatial characterization of a karst aquifer by combination of periodic and non-periodic responses (Lez aquifer, France), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5597, 2021.

HS8.3.1 – Subsurface structures and complex dynamics in heterogeneous soils, fractured-porous media, and at rock–soil interfaces: from laboratory experiments and field recognition to numerical representation

EGU21-319 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Imaging the subsurface to inform hydrological models: a geophysicist’s perspective

Thomas Hermans, Hadrien Michel, Jorge Lopez-Alvis, and Frédéric Nguyen

Heterogeneity plays a major role in subsurface processes from the local scale (preferential infiltration and flow paths, fractures) to the catchment scale (presence of lateral and vertical variability, multiple horizons, bedrock interface, etc.). If high-resolution direct observations are often available through drillholes, CPT or installing in-situ monitoring probes, those local measurements only provide punctual or 1D information. Within this context, geophysical techniques can provide relevant spatially-distributed information (2D, 3D or even 4D) with a much larger coverage than direct measurements. However, geophysical information remains indirect and must be translated into the sought parameter through petrophysical or transfer functions. 

Geophysicists are facing two important issues when imaging the subsurface: 1) Generating images of the subsurface that are consistent in terms of soil or geological structures; 2) Integrating the geophysical information into hydrological models. Both issues will be discussed in this contribution.

Geophysical imaging is the result of an inversion process whose solution is non-unique. This problem is generally solved using a regularization approach introducing some a priori characteristics of the model. The dominant choice is still the smoothness constraint inversion, which often introduces a too simplistic representation of the subsurface, and decreases the potential of geophysics to discriminate between different facies. In the first part of this contribution, we will analyze what can be expected from geophysical methods in terms of characterization of the heterogeneity. We will illustrate how the inversion method affects the discrimination potential of geophysics, and how we can improve the geophysical image by accounting for prior information. We will see how the discrimination potential decreases with the loss of resolution. Finally, we will investigate how recent methodologies using machine learning can improve our ability to image the subsurface.

Given the high spatial coverage of geophysical methods, they have a huge potential to inform hydrological models in terms of heterogeneity. However, the limitations related to geophysical inversion also make the geophysical model uncertain and the risk to propagate erroneous information exists. In the second part of this contribution, we will illustrate how to incorporate geophysical data into hydrological models to unravel their spatial complexity. At the early stage of a project, several scenarios regarding spatial heterogeneity are often possible (orientation of fractures, number of facies to consider, interconnection within one facies, etc.), and this can largely influence the outcomes of the hydrological models. In this context, geophysical data can be used to verify the consistency of some scenarios without requiring any inversion in a process called falsification. Once realistic scenarios have been identified, geophysical data can be used to spatially constrain hydrological models. However, this should ideally account for the uncertainty related to geophysical inversion. One possibility is to use a fully-coupled approach where geophysical data are integrated directly in the hydrological model inversion. This requires nevertheless a transfer function to relate hydrological and geophysical variables. As an alternative, a sequential approach using a probabilistic framework accounting for the imperfect geophysical data can be used. The latter requires co-located measurements.

How to cite: Hermans, T., Michel, H., Lopez-Alvis, J., and Nguyen, F.: Imaging the subsurface to inform hydrological models: a geophysicist’s perspective, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-319, 2021.

EGU21-2848 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Hillslope-scale mapping and numerical representation of the subsurface heterogeneity towards an improved process-based hydrological modelling

Edoardo Martini, Ute Wollschläger, Marco Bittelli, Fausto Tomei, Ulrike Werban, Steffen Zacharias, and Kurt Roth

One of the major challenges in soil hydrological modelling is due to the fact that soils are heterogeneous at all spatial scales. The identification and accurate representation of such heterogeneity can be crucial for quantifying the subsurface hydrological states and water fluxes.

This work presents the results of an integrated approach for process-based soil hydrological modelling for a highly instrumented hillslope site. The approach builds on the integration of classical soil mapping, on accurate monitoring of soil water dynamics as well as on geophysical measurements for characterising subsurface heterogeneity. It finally integrates the gathered information into a physical model for simulating the soil water dynamics with high spatial and temporal resolution.

At the Schäfertal Hillslope site (Central Germany), the soil monitoring network STH-net provides high-quality data about the soil water dynamics and soil properties at 8 instrumented soil profiles and depths within the unsaturated zone. The soil spatial variability, known from local soil description and sampling, was mapped using time-lapse electromagnetic induction measurements. The geophysical inversion of the data provided depth-resolved information about the subsurface structures in terms of soil-bedrock interface, soil horizons and their spatial continuity along the hillslope transect. Based on this, different versions of the subsurface geometry model were produced and associated to soil hydraulic parameterizations derived from different approaches.

We show the performance of the physical model CRITERIA-3D in reproducing the soil water dynamics for different subsurface models with increasing complexity. Specifically, we highlight and discuss the key challenges that need to be addressed when continuous information about the subsurface heterogeneity is to be mapped in the field with high resolution and represented in a numerical model with fine discretization in three-dimensions.

We conclude that linking state-of-the-art experimental methods to advanced numerical tools, and bridging the gap between different disciplines such as pedology, hydrology and geophysics can be the key for improving our ability to measure, predict and better understand the vadose-zone processes. This will provide important knowledge needed for transferring this approach to larger scales where the accurate quantification of the soil water fluxes is required for a more efficient water management in the context of sustainable food production and climate change.

How to cite: Martini, E., Wollschläger, U., Bittelli, M., Tomei, F., Werban, U., Zacharias, S., and Roth, K.: Hillslope-scale mapping and numerical representation of the subsurface heterogeneity towards an improved process-based hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2848, 2021.

EGU21-12928 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Effective hydraulic properties of virtual stony soils: Forward 3D simulations evaluated by 1D inverse modeling

Mahyar Naseri, Sascha C. Iden, and Wolfgang Durner

Measuring hydraulic properties of stony soils and interpretation of the measured data is a challenge in vadose zone hydrology. The reason is not only the problem of installing suitable sensors but also the systematic measurement errors when sensors are only located in the background soil. A common approach to calculate the hydraulic properties of stony soils is by scaling the properties of the background soil according to the rock fragment content. Such modeling approaches are primarily developed for saturated flow conditions and only consider the amount of rock fragments as an input parameter. However, there is still a gap in knowledge regarding the effective properties of stony soils under unsaturated flow conditions.

Recently, 3D numerical simulation has become a convenient alternative tool to study the transport properties of heterogeneous porous media. The generation of data by numerical models is fast, measurements are repeatable and the simulation of the system under different initial and boundary conditions is easily achievable. We simulated three-dimensional unsaturated water flow in laboratory columns with stony soil material using the Hydrus 2D/3D software. Geometries were generated by assuming different volume fractions of impermeable rock fragments with spherical, cylindrical, or prolate shapes embedded in sandy loam soil. Time series of mean water contents, local pressure heads, and fluxes across the upper boundary were generated in an evaporation experiment, and a multi-step unit gradient simulation was applied to obtain values of hydraulic conductivity near saturation.

The synthetic measurement data were evaluated by inverse modeling, assuming a homogeneous system, and the effective hydraulic properties of stony soils were identified. The results were used to evaluate the scaling approaches for different volumes of rock fragments. A non-linear reduction in hydraulic conductivity by the increase of rock fractions was visible. The results also highlighted the effects of the orientation and shape of rock fragments. The orientation of rock fragments towards flow has a significant effect on the flow reduction, and in the case of prolate spheroids oriented along the flow direction, the reduction in conductivity was less significant. 

How to cite: Naseri, M., C. Iden, S., and Durner, W.: Effective hydraulic properties of virtual stony soils: Forward 3D simulations evaluated by 1D inverse modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12928, 2021.

EGU21-9954 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Predicting Solute Transport in Soil Water Flow with Estimated, Effective Material Properties

Lukas Riedel, Hannes Helmut Bauser, Robert Maiwald, and Santiago Ospina De Los Ríos
Soil water flow is a key hydrological process supporting several ecosystem services. The non-linear soil hydraulic material properties have a profound influence on the flow dynamics and cannot be measured directly. They can be estimated with data assimilation based on measurements of the soil hydraulic state. As soils feature a multi-scale architecture, these measurements typically cannot resolve the soil heterogeneity on the relevant spatial and estimating it becomes difficult. In a previous study, we estimated a one-dimensional effective representation of a synthetic, two-dimensional, heterogeneous domain based on a vertical measurement profile using an ensemble Kalman filter. The estimated one-dimensional model represented the dynamics of the soil water movement sufficiently well, but it remained unclear if these results can be transferred to associated physical processes.

Soil water flow also transports solutes between surface and groundwater. The accurate description of solute fluxes and concentrations is crucial for predicting groundwater quality and contamination. In this study, we use the aforementioned estimated, one-dimensional representation of the domain to simulate and forecast passive solute transport within the soil water flow. We examine its predictive capabilities by comparing these results with results obtained from the two-dimensional, heterogeneous synthetic truth from which artificial measurements are extracted.

How to cite: Riedel, L., Bauser, H. H., Maiwald, R., and Ospina De Los Ríos, S.: Predicting Solute Transport in Soil Water Flow with Estimated, Effective Material Properties, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9954, 2021.

EGU21-6094 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Can fill-and-spill subsurface flow be represented by a moisture-dependent anisotropic permeability tensor in Richards equation-based models with coarse spatial resolution?

Esther Xu Fei and Ciaran Harman

EGU21-8074 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Bedrock outcrops: A window for enhanced midwinter recharge

Stephanie Wright and Kent Novakowski

As midwinter melt and rain-on-snow events become more common occurrences in the northern hemisphere under climate change, incorporating frozen processes when simulating winter-time recharge is increasingly necessary. The activation of infiltration pathways and recharge dynamics of shallow bedrock environments under frozen conditions has received relatively little attention. Over the 2019-2020 winter, hydrogeologic and cryospheric conditions of the surface, unsaturated, and saturated zones were monitored around a low-lying granitic outcrop in eastern Ontario, Canada. Interpretation of the data indicated that the soil-rock contact around outcrop margins was the key pathway enabling midwinter infiltration and recharge. To support this conceptual model and further explore the role of outcrops in enhancing midwinter bedrock recharge, a numerical investigation was undertaken. Measured climate data (hourly time step) was used to govern the surface energy and water balances of a 1D finite difference model that incorporates frozen processes. Measured snow depth, soil moisture content, and soil temperature profiles were simulated. Simulations with vertical infiltration alone could not account for observed increases in moisture content in the deepest soil horizons. This is attributed to additional lateral flow along the unfrozen soil-rock contact that bypasses the frozen soil layers. Preliminary results support the concept that bedrock outcrops provide a window for midwinter infiltration since repeated winter melts reduce frozen soil permeability and inhibits vertical infiltration until the ground thaws. Results from the surface/near-surface simulations are used to guide the development of a 2D finite element model that includes heat and flow transport and ground freeze-thaw. The impacts to bedrock recharge under different rainfall and snowmelt scenarios as well as various outcrop geometries are explored. Results from these numerical experiments help provide greater insight into the processes driving enhanced midwinter bedrock recharge under conditions of warmer winters.

How to cite: Wright, S. and Novakowski, K.: Bedrock outcrops: A window for enhanced midwinter recharge, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8074, 2021.

EGU21-10013 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Assessment of an artificial recharge system through numerical simulations

Paulo Herrera and Yerko Olivares

Artificial recharge is the set of techniques used to increase or facilitate the flow of water to aquifers. It has been a management strategy for centuries to optimize the use of water in regions where the seasonal or inter-annual distribution of surface water produces periods or exceedance and shortage. Water infiltration into aquifers is enhanced such that aquifers serve as short to medium term storage reservoirs. Water is recovered when needed.  Recently, increasing demand of groundwater and the occurrence of more severe and longer droughts in different regions around the world have produced a renewed interest in the application of this management strategy in many countries, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.

Infiltration wells are a common method to apply artificial recharge, which allows infiltrating water directly into saturated aquifers or to the unsaturated zone. We performed local-scale numerical simulations of unsaturated flow to model the operation of a single well infiltration system. Based on the results of the simulations, we evaluate its performance considering different conceptualizations of the materials present in the vadose zone. We conclude that the performance of similar systems can be significantly different depending on the distribution of subsurface materials and their properties. Hence, the conceptualization and modeling of such systems require some care about how the inherent heterogeneity of aquifers is included in models.  Last, we provide some recommendations for the design and assessment of similar artificial recharge systems. 

How to cite: Herrera, P. and Olivares, Y.: Assessment of an artificial recharge system through numerical simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10013, 2021.

EGU21-9711 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Laboratory and field studies of preferential flow dynamics in unsaturated fractured porous media

Florian Rüdiger, Kim Bartsch, John R. Nimmo, and Jannes Kordilla

Recharge dynamics within the vadose zone (variable saturation conditions) of consolidated fractured rock formations are an ongoing challenge when it comes to process understanding and predictive modeling. The proper delineation of fast (macropores, fractures, conduits) and slow (matrix) flow components in these systems and their interaction with each other remains a complex puzzle and holds a key to enhance process-based infiltration models.

We conducted laboratory and field experiments to study infiltration dynamics through porous-fractured systems. Laboratory experiments were carried out with analogue fracture networks on meter scale. Orthogonal networks were created by placing equally sized blocks with a constant gap between to glass plates, which were mount by metal clamps. Vertical flow through different network configurations (apertures, intersection types, topology, flow rates) was studied for (1) porous media (sandstone) and (2) non-porous media (glass) to delineate the control of network features on flow dynamics, as well as the effect of fracture-matrix interaction. Matrix imbibition was found to strongly control the preferential flow velocity during flow path evolution. Higher infiltration rates lead to more by-pass at fracture intersections, whereas low infiltration rates favor flow partitioning into horizontal fractures. Vertical flow progression within the non-porous network is significantly faster due to the lack of imbibition. Semi-analytical tools, such as transfer functions, and source-responsive dual-domain models are tested to reproduce the experimental data and to incorporate key features of fracture networks in future modeling approaches. We additionally obtained experimental data from infiltration dynamics at porous-fractured field sites on meter scale to compare them to the well-controlled laboratory experiments and to evaluate the applicability of the results to actual field processes.

How to cite: Rüdiger, F., Bartsch, K., Nimmo, J. R., and Kordilla, J.: Laboratory and field studies of preferential flow dynamics in unsaturated fractured porous media, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9711, 2021.

EGU21-3663 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Influence of local splitting behavior at intersections on infiltration in an unsaturated fracture network 

Song Xue, Zhibing Yang, and Yi-Feng Chen

Understanding and predicting the macro-scale flow characteristics in the fractured vadose zone is of great importance for subsurface hydrological applications. Here we develop a network model to study infiltration in unsaturated fracture networks. We consider an idealized honeycomb-like fracture network composed of a series of Y-shaped and inverted Y-shaped intersections. At the scale of intersections, liquid storage/release and splitting/convergence behaviors are modeled according to local splitting relationships obtained from detailed laboratory work and numerical simulations. By varying the splitting relationships, the influence of local flow behaviors on large scale flow structures is systematically investigated. We find that when the water split tends to split equally at the intersection, a divergent flow structure forms in the network. Conversely, unequal splitting leads to preferential pathways. We also find that an avalanche infiltration mode, i.e., sudden release of a large amount of water from the network, emerges spontaneously, and is modulated by the local splitting behavior. The pathways of preferential flow is controlled by the liquid volume triggered by avalanches and the network structure. The improved understanding from this study may shed new light on the complex flow dynamics for unsaturated flow in fractured media.

How to cite: Xue, S., Yang, Z., and Chen, Y.-F.: Influence of local splitting behavior at intersections on infiltration in an unsaturated fracture network , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3663, 2021.

EGU21-14723 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Predicting preferential flow and water table fluctuations in karst systems using film-flow theory and source-responsive models

Torsten Noffz, Jannes Kordilla, Alireza Kavousi, Thomas Reimann, Martin Sauter, and Rudolf Liedl

The locally focused dissolution of the rock material (e.g., below dolines and dry valleys) in karst systems and in general percolating clusters of fractures in consolidated aquifer systems trigger the development of preferential flow paths in the vadose zone. Rainfall events may initiate rapid mass fluxes via macropores and fractures (e.g., as gravitationally-driven films) that lead to source-responsive water table fluctuations and comparably short residence times within the vadose zone. The degree of partitioning into a slow diffuse infiltration component and a rapid localized part depends, amongst others, on the hydraulic interaction of porous matrix and fracture domain as well as the geometrical characteristics of the fracture systems (e.g., persistence, connectivity) that are often difficult to obtain or unknown under most field conditions. Given their importance in water-resource management, specifically in arid and semi-arid regions (e.g., Mediterranean), it is desirable to recover such infiltration dynamics in porous-fractured systems with physically-based yet not overparameterized models. Here, we simulate water table fluctuations in a karst catchment in southwest Germany (Gallusquelle) using a source-responsive film flow model based on borehole and precipitation data. The model takes into account interfacial connectivity between slow and fast domain as well as phreatic zone discharge via classical recession analysis. This case study shows the potential importance of preferential flows while modeling water table responses in karst systems and recognizes the need for formulations other than those applied for a diffuse bulk fractured domain where infiltration patterns are assumed to be homogeneous without formation of infiltration instabilities along preferential pathways.

How to cite: Noffz, T., Kordilla, J., Kavousi, A., Reimann, T., Sauter, M., and Liedl, R.: Predicting preferential flow and water table fluctuations in karst systems using film-flow theory and source-responsive models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14723, 2021.

A fundamental understanding of water infiltration in unsaturated fractured rocks is important in a range of subsurface hydrological, environmental and engineering applications. We perform an experimental and modeling investigation of the gravity-driven liquid slug flow behavior at fracture intersections. In the experiments, we visualize the flow processes and quantitatively analyze the flow dynamics. We develop a novel computational model that adequately captures the splitting dynamics. This model considers dynamic contact angles and solves temporal evolution of interface motion based on force balance with the quasi-static assumption at each time step. We systematically examine the influence of various physical parameters on the flow splitting behavior, including the widths and inclination angles of channels, and slug lengths. Using the local splitting relationships obtained mechanistically, develop a network model to study infiltration in unsaturated fracture networks. Then, the influence of the local flow dynamics on large-scale flow structures is systematically investigated. We find that an avalanche infiltration mode emerges spontaneously and that the local splitting relationship controls the divergent and convergent flow structures.

How to cite: Yang, Z., Xue, S., Hu, R., and Chen, Y.-F.: Gravity-driven liquid splitting behavior at intersections and its control on infiltration in unsaturated fracture networks , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8582, 2021.

EGU21-13388 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Geophysical monitoring of temperature variation and water movement in a frost weathering cave

Clemens Moser, Pauline Oberender, Barbara Funk, and Adrian Flores-Orozco

One third of the caves in the north-eastern part of the Eastern Alps are assumed to be created by frost weathering. The geomorphological process of frost weathering is linked to temperature variations around the freezing point and a sufficient amount of water in the inner of a rock. Fractured areas are highly sensitive to frost weathering and are characterised by high variations of temperature and water content. Geophysical electrical methods are widely used to monitor variations of temperature and water content with time, considering the sensitivity of the electrical resistivity to both properties. In this study, we present imaging results for electrical monitoring conducted in February 2020 in the ceiling of the Untere Traisenbacherhöhle, a frost weathering cave, which is located in the foothills of the Eastern Calcareous Alps. In total, 77 imaging measurements were conducted during the monitoring period of approximately 60 hours with an electrode separation of about 10 cm to gain data with high temporal and high spatial resolution during and after a raining event. Simultaneously, temperature was measured at one point in different rock depths. Geophysical data was pre-processed by a four-step filtering procedure to identify and remove spatial and temporal outliers. Then the data was inverted with the open-source library Pybert. Inversion results reveal that during the entire monitoring the resistivity varies up to ±30% compared with the values at the start of the monitoring. To investigate in more detail the temporal changes, we extracted pixel values in 16 areas. These pixels show a strong negative linear correlation with the temperature (correlation coefficients up to 99%), which ranges between 2 °C and 8 °C. However, in some areas a simple linear model seems to not represent the relationship of both parameters in the low temperature range adequately. Based on such correlation, the resistivity data was temperature-corrected to investigate water content changes affecting the resistivity of the ceiling of the cave. Such analysis permitted to delineate clear anomalies related to water seeping into the rock as well as drying processes at the inner parts of the rock wall. Further, geophysical measurements were conducted by means of the low-induction number electromagnetic method in June 2020 to evaluate the applicability of this to map the entire rock wall of the cave. Electrical resistivity (ERT) data differs strongly from the low-induction number electromagnetic (EMI) mapping, likely because of a contamination of the EMI data due to the presence of the metallic electrodes used for the ERT monitoring and due to different weather conditions. Our study reveals the possibility to quantify water content changes in caves in an imaging framework. Further, this information can be used to delineate fractured zones in carbonate rocks, which are supposed to be more sensitive to frost weathering.

How to cite: Moser, C., Oberender, P., Funk, B., and Flores-Orozco, A.: Geophysical monitoring of temperature variation and water movement in a frost weathering cave, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13388, 2021.

EGU21-9836 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.1

Spatial and temporal simulation of groundwater recharge amount and cross-validation with point measurement-based estimations on a tropical basin comprising volcanic aquifers: case study of Lake Tana basin, northwestern Ethiopia

Alemu Yenehun, Mekete Dessie, Fenta Nigate, Ashebir Sewale Belay, Mulugeta Azeze, Marc Van Camp, Derbew Fentie, Desale Kidane, Ann Van Griensven, Enyew Adgo, Jan Nyssen, and Kristine Walraevens

A physically distributed water balance model called WetSpass is applied to estimate the recharge for the semi-humid Lake Tana basin in northwest Ethiopia. Lake Tana basin, one of the major sub-basins of the Upper Blue Nile River basin, covers 15,077 km2 of which 3,156km2 is the lake water body. The basin is regarded as one of the growth corridors of the country, where huge waterworks infrastructure is being developed. The basin has complex volcanic aquifer systems due to the multi-stage volcanism of the Cenozoic and Quaternary eras comprising many dikes, extended volcanic necks, and centers. Hence, estimating hydrological terms such as groundwater recharge considering the high basin physical heterogeneities is difficult, though highly important. In this study, the WetSpass model is developed, and recharge surface, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration at 90 m grid resolution have been developed. The spatial recharge map is cross-validated with water table fluctuation (WTF) and chloride mass balance (CMB) methods. The mean annual recharge, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration over the whole basin using WetSpass are estimated at 315 mm, 416 mm, and 770 mm, respectively. The mean annual recharge ranges from 0 mm to 1085 mm: 0 mm at water bodies and highest on highly fractured Quaternary basalt. Similarly, a high range of recharge is also noted using WTF and CMB methods showing the strongly heterogeneous nature of the hydro(meteoro)logical characteristics of the area. Generally, the recharge is found higher in the southern and eastern catchments and lower in the northern catchments, primarily due to higher rainfall amounts and highly permeable geological formations in the former parts. A fair general correlation between the recharge by WTF and WetSpass is found. However, WetSpass is more effective in the highland areas where the recharge is controlled by rainfall, while the WTF method is more effective in the storage controlled flat floodplain area. CMB is applied in a less spatially distributed way, and hence, the spatial performance of the method is not well evaluated. However, logged water infiltration in the floodplains, and transpiration from the groundwater in shallow water table areas have disturbed the estimated recharge by the CMB method. The land-use change from 1986-2014 brought relatively small hydrological change, although the land use has changed significantly.

How to cite: Yenehun, A., Dessie, M., Nigate, F., Belay, A. S., Azeze, M., Van Camp, M., Fentie, D., Kidane, D., Van Griensven, A., Adgo, E., Nyssen, J., and Walraevens, K.: Spatial and temporal simulation of groundwater recharge amount and cross-validation with point measurement-based estimations on a tropical basin comprising volcanic aquifers: case study of Lake Tana basin, northwestern Ethiopia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9836, 2021.

Nutrient losses in agricultural areas have detrimental effects not only on the surface water quality but are also unfavorable for sustainable agriculture practices. In Denmark, there are currently nitrate regulations applied for ID15 catchments (15 square km scale), nevertheless, it is crucial to know how much nitrogen is retained in the root zone, saturated zone, riparian zone as N-retention varies widely within ID15 catchments. Currently, N-retention mapping does not incorporate N-retention in the root zone on ID15 scale. N-retention in the root zone of subsurface drained clayey areas is potentially influenced by the variation in water table depth. Therefore, we will evaluate the effect of shallow hydrogeology, topography and drain parameters on local (sub-field scale) water table depth variation using a case study in eastern Jutland, Denmark.

The aim of the study was to assess which hydrogeological variables, drain parameters and topographical variables control water table depth variation in the root zone. This analysis was aided by a groundwater flow model code (MODFLOW). For the following purpose, hydrological data (drain flow at the outlet and depth to the water table in piezometers) and geophysical data (subsurface electrical conductivity) were collected. The geophysical data was collected by two ground-based electromagnetic systems (DUALEM and tTEM). The electrical conductivities were directly translated into two zones of homogeneous hydraulic conductivities based on a threshold value. Hydraulic properties were varied for each zone. Areas with no geophysical data were simulated using Direct Sampling, a Multi Points Statistics method. We generated several flow models, which had a varying spatial distribution of hydraulic zones and varying hydraulic properties (input factors). Moreover, boundary conditions (lateral fluxes), topographical smoothing and drain parameters (drain conductance and drain depths) were some of the other input factors we considered in this work. Model boundary conditions data were obtained from the national hydrological model. The variation in input factors was related to variation in simulated water table depths and drain flow at the outlet using a one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis.

Drain flow fraction, depth to the water table and drain discharge are analyzed as the quantity of interest for both wet and dry periods. Drain fraction is calculated as the ratio of the area contributing to the drainage to the area contributing to the recharge within the same area. The results will discover crucial controlling components of water table depth with which variations in N-retention can be estimated between different fields. The emphasis is to discover the connection between hydrogeological, topographical, and drain variables, and water table depth. We will examine potential implications for evaluating drain fraction and potential nitrate reduction.

How to cite: Mahmood, H. and Rumph Frederiksen, R.: Hydrogeological, topographical and drain factors controlling water table depth variation and potential nitrate reduction in subsurface drained clayey till area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5960, 2021.

HS8.3.2 – Vadose zone processes: advances and future perspectives in soil hydrology

EGU21-904 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

euptfv2: updated hydraulic pedotransfer functions for Europe

Brigitta Szabó, Melanie Weynants, and Tobias Weber

We present improved European hydraulic pedotransfer functions (PTFs) which now use the machine learning algorithm random forest and include prediction uncertainties. The new PTFs (euptfv2) are an update of the previously published euptfv1 (Tóth et al., 2015). With the derived hydraulic PTFs soil hydraulic properties and van Genuchten-Mualem model parameters can be predicted from easily available soil properties. The updated PTFs perform significantly better than euptfv1 and are applicable for 32 predictor variables combinations. The uncertainties reflect uncertainties from the considered input data, predictors and the applied algorithm. The euptfv2 includes transfer functions to compute soil water content at saturation (0 cm matric potential head), field capacity (both -100 and -330 cm matric potential head) and wilting point (-15,000 cm matric potential head), plant available water content computed with field capacity at -100 and -330 cm matric potential head, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and Mualem-van Genuchten parameters of the moisture retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. The influence of predictor variables on predicted soil hydraulic properties is explored and suggestions to best predictor variables given.

The algorithms have been implemented in a web interface (https://ptfinterface.rissac.hu) and an R package (https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.3759442) to facilitate the use of the PTFs, where the PTFs’ selection is automated based on soil properties available for the predictions and required soil hydraulic property.

The new PTFs will be applied to derive soil hydraulic properties for field- and catchment- scale hydrological modelling in European case studies of the OPTAIN project (https://www.optain.eu/). Functional evaluation of the PTFs is performed under the iAqueduct research project.

 

This research has been supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (grant no. KH124765), the János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (grant no. BO/00088/18/4), and the German Research Foundation (grant no. SFB 1253/12017). OPTAIN is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Program for research and innovation under Grant Agreement No. 862756.

How to cite: Szabó, B., Weynants, M., and Weber, T.: euptfv2: updated hydraulic pedotransfer functions for Europe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-904, 2021.

EGU21-3545 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Wet-range physical realism in a model of soil water retention 

John R. Nimmo

Most models of soil water retention represent the wettest range simplistically, reflecting a high priority on facilitating computation without recognition of the active physical processes. Commonly the wet range is misleadingly represented by a straight line of zero slope, or by default using the same formulation as for the middle range, even though the mechanisms of water retention are different for the wet and middle portions of the range. Though adequate for some purposes, such treatment causes problems for applications that are sensitive to wet-range processes. It prevents accurate prediction of critical but challenging wet-range phenomena such as domain exchange between preferential flow paths and soil matrix. It limits the choices available for quantifying flow problems, for example a blowing-up of derivatives on approach to saturation prohibits the use of diffusivity-based formulations.

A new model addresses these issues for the important case where the medium is soil matrix material exclusive of macropores, thus having a well-defined air-entry value, and the moisture dynamics are the typical wet and dry cycling that achieves maximum wetness at field saturation, with a presence of trapped air at zero matric potential. The range between the air-entry value and field saturation is dominated by trapped air expansion in response to pressure change, as well as a process that increases the sensitivity to changing matric pressure. This enhanced sensitivity may be related in part to a collapse of liquid bridges between air pockets as they expand. For this wet range, the new model incorporates the Boyles’ law inverse-proportionality of trapped air volume and pressure, amplified by an empirical factor to account for the additional processes. To cover the full range of possible moisture, this wet-range formula is supplemented by two others. The middle range of capillary advance/retreat and Haines jumps is represented by a new adaptation of the lognormal distribution function. The adsorption-dominated dry range is represented by a logarithmic relation used in earlier models. Joined together with a continuous first-derivative constraint, the overall formulation recognizes the dominant processes within three segments of the full range. Optimization of five parameters can fit the model to a full data set.

Tests have demonstrated excellent fits, using measured data that have many closely spaced points in the wet and middle ranges. With their basis in process, the model’s parameters have a strong physical interpretation, and potentially can be assigned values without fitting, from knowledge of fundamental relationships or individual measurements. This basis in process also may permit accommodation of hysteresis by a systematic adjustment of the relation between the wet and middle ranges, and with minimal additional data may serve to facilitate estimation of other properties such as hydraulic conductivity, diffusivity, and sorptivity.

How to cite: Nimmo, J. R.: Wet-range physical realism in a model of soil water retention , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3545, 2021.

EGU21-13935 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

How well do standard laboratory methods represent the field water retention curve of volcanic ash soils (Andosols)?

Giovanny Mosquera, Franklin Marín, Jan Feyen, Rolando Célleri, Lutz Breur, David Windhorst, and Patricio Crespo

Accurate determination of the water retention curve (WRC) of a soil is essential for the understanding and modelling of the subsurface hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical processes. Volcanic ash soils with andic properties (Andosols) are recognized as important providers of ecological and hydrological services in mountainous regions worldwide due to their outstanding water holding capacity. Previous comparative analyses of in situ (field) and standard laboratory (hydrostatic equilibrium based) methods for the determination of the WRC of Andosols showed contrasting results. Based on an extensive analysis of laboratory, experimental, and field measured WRCs of Andosols in combination with data extracted from the published literature we show that standard laboratory methods using small soil sample volumes (≤300 cm3) mimic the WRC of these soils only partially. The results obtained by the latter resemble only a small portion of the wet range of the Andosols’ WRC (from saturation up to -5 kPa, or pF 1.7), but overestimate substantially their water content for higher matric potentials. The disagreement limits our capacity to infer correctly subsurface hydrological behavior, as illustrated through the analysis of long-term soil moisture and matric potential data from an experimental site in the tropical Andes. These findings imply that results reported in past research should be used with caution and that future research should focus on determining laboratory methods that allow obtaining a correct characterization of the WRC of Andosols.

How to cite: Mosquera, G., Marín, F., Feyen, J., Célleri, R., Breur, L., Windhorst, D., and Crespo, P.: How well do standard laboratory methods represent the field water retention curve of volcanic ash soils (Andosols)?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13935, 2021.

EGU21-8717 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

A simple model to predict hydraulic conductivity in medium to dry soil from the water retention curve

Andre Peters, Tobias L. Hohenbrink, Sascha C. Iden, and Wolfgang Durner

The mathematical representation of the soil hydraulic properties is of central importance for modeling water, solute and energy transport in the vadose zone. The established models of the soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves account for capillary water retention and capillary conductivity, but neglect water adsorption and water flow in films and in pore corners. They are therefore suited for modeling flow and transport processes in the medium to wet moisture range, but are susceptible to failure in dry soil. The model system developed by Peters (2013, 2014) and Iden and Durner (2014) (PDI in the following) is a simple parametric framework that overcomes these structural shortcomings. However, it requires an additional parameter to scale the hydraulic conductivity curve in the medium to dry moisture range where non-capillary flow is dominant. Measured conductivity data are required to estimate this scaling parameter and to compute the hydraulic conductivity over the complete moisture range. In this contribution, we first analyze the original model formulation and show that it is in close agreement with a comprehensive physically-based model for film conductivity in porous media. We then suggest a physically based method to predict the film conductivity from the water retention curve. This reduces the number of free parameters by one and gives a complete prediction of the hydraulic conductivity curve if only water retention data and the saturated conductivity are known. Application to literature data covering a broad range of textures shows a very good agreement between measured data and predictions.

How to cite: Peters, A., Hohenbrink, T. L., Iden, S. C., and Durner, W.: A simple model to predict hydraulic conductivity in medium to dry soil from the water retention curve, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8717, 2021.

EGU21-8929 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Extending established soil hydraulic property models by non-capillary water: A comprehensive model performance test

Tobias L. Hohenbrink, Andre Peters, Sascha C. Iden, and Wolfgang Durner

Understanding and describing the hydrologic function of soils requires adequate models of soil hydraulic properties. Established models for hydraulic properties implicitly assume that water flow occurs only in completely filled soil pores. This simplification is questionable in cases where soils become dry.  Lab measurements have repeatedly shown that under dry conditions, water retention and hydraulic conductivity are dominated by water in thin films. Today, there are some modelling approaches that take into account this so-called non-capillary water. One of these is the simple Peters-Durner-Iden model system (PDI), which extends any basic model of capillary retention and conductivity by a non-capillary counterpart. In the original form, this requires one additional fitting parameter to characterize the magnitude of non-capillary conductivity. Peters et al. (2021) have recently updated the model system (PDIc) to predict the non-capillary conductivity from the water retention curve without increasing the number of adjustable parameters compared to the established models.

In this contribution we present a comprehensive model performance test of the established capillary models, the original PDI model, and the new PDIc model. The performance test is based on a data collection of soil hydrological variables measured at 500 undisturbed soil samples. The collection contains soil water retention and conductivity data, determined in the laboratory by the evaporation method, supplemented by dew point method data and measurements of saturated conductivity. For each data set we estimated the soil hydraulic parameters for any combination of the three basic models: van Genuchten with m=1-1/n, van Genuchten with a free parameter m, and Fredlund & Xing and the three considerations of non-capillary water: not considered (no PDI), PDI, and PDIc.

The results showed that the most flexible basic functions generally yielded the best model fits. For example, the Fredlund & Xing model outperformed the two van Genuchten models. Considering non-capillary water by the PDI model system also clearly increased the model performance. The root mean squared errors (RMSE) for the fits of both the retention and the conductivity curve were clearly reduced in the order from no PDI to PDIc to PDI. Remarkably, the PDIc model generally achieved better fits than the established models although it has exactly the same free parameters.

 

References
Peters, A., T.L. Hohenbrink, S.C. Iden, and W. Durner. A simple model to predict hydraulic conductivity in medium to dry soil from the water retention curve. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 23, EGU21-8717, 2021.

How to cite: Hohenbrink, T. L., Peters, A., Iden, S. C., and Durner, W.: Extending established soil hydraulic property models by non-capillary water: A comprehensive model performance test, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8929, 2021.

EGU21-10024 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Functional role of earthworms to control the hydraulic conductivity of constructed wetlands 

Océane Gilibert, Dan Tam Costa, Sabine Sauvage, Didier Orange, Yvan Capowiez, Frédéric Julien, and Magali Gerino

Wetlands are known for their natural service of water quality regulation. The hyporheic zones of the rivers filter and purify the surface water from the stream and infiltrated waters in soil nearby through the riparian zone. This purification service occurs because of a synergy between the substrate and its biodiversity (including plants, bacteria and other invertebrates). Our study deals with constructed wetlands (CW) as a nature-based solution mimicking wetlands water purification process, to purify wastewaters. The REUSE technology of CW is based on the use of specific layers of gravels and sands inside a close concrete structure, planted with specific sub-aquatic plants, where wastewaters or runoff of stormwaters are introduced to be filtered. The technology of Vertical Flow Constructed Wetlands (VFCW) reproduces the water flux observed in the riparian zone with a gravity flow of water. It is composed of reeds planted on a sandy layer (Ø 0-4 mm) and succession of gravel layers. This substrate can be saturated or unsaturated to reproduce the functioning of the hyporheic zone or the riparian zone respectively. By the time, the substrate is colonized by a community of bacteria producing biofilms which capture the residual organic matter from wastewaters to mineralize them. However, the VFCW substrates tend to clog over time due to the accumulation of organic matter and biofilms. Many studies consider earthworms as one of the solutions to alleviate this clogging, thanks to their burrows recreating macropores and preferential channels which help to improve the dispersion of water into the deep soil. The main goal of this study is to assess the impact of earthworm activities on the hydraulic conductivity of columns composed with the same substrate used in the VFCW. Different densities of earthworms (Eisenia fetida) were introduced (0, 100, 500, 1000 g of earthworms/m²) in these columns to be monitored for 37 days. The hydraulic conductivity was measured every 7 days, aside from day 23 with the addition of 40 g of peat bedding on column surfaces to simulate a high organic matter input. Columns with earthworm density superior to 500 g/m² shows an amelioration of their hydraulic conductivity after 21 days. These densities are also able to restore the hydraulic conductivity of the column in less than 7 days after the setting of clogged condition due to the organic matter input (peat bedding) at the sediment surface. This study showed that the burrowing activity of E. fetida improves the hydraulic flux of a sandy substrate and this impact is dependent on the earthworm density introduced. So, the addition of earthworms in the VFCW could serve as a prevention against clogging.

How to cite: Gilibert, O., Costa, D. T., Sauvage, S., Orange, D., Capowiez, Y., Julien, F., and Gerino, M.: Functional role of earthworms to control the hydraulic conductivity of constructed wetlands , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10024, 2021.

This work presents the first results obtained in the context of the PROFILES project. The main objective of PROFILES concerns the identification of a possible correlation between water content dynamics and the distribution of metal pollutants in the surface layer of urban soils.

The research activity combined experimental, analytical and numerical approaches. Field activity was conducted in Bagnolo Mella, (Brescia, Northern Italy) where a ferroalloy industry operated for more than forty years (1974-2015). Four sites within the study area, at different radial distances and up/downwind with respect to the plant, have been considered. At these sites, the distribution of As, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn concentrations in the surface soil was inferred by means of a portable X-Ray Fluorescence device. A tension infiltrometer allowed to estimate the local value of hydraulic conductivity at saturation, Ks. Physico-chemical properties evaluated on soil samples via laboratory analysis were found to be rather homogeneous. However, metal concentrations were remarkably different at the four sites, larger values being detected up-wind and closer to the production plant, within the top layer (≈ 20 cm) of the soil column. In particular, sequential chemical extraction processes and X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectroscopy showed that Mn exceeded considerably typical background levels and was present in a hybrid form of magnetite (Fe, Mn)3O4, resistant to acid dissolution. Considering that it is difficult to form Mn-substituted magnetite in surface layers at low temperatures, its presence indicates this pollutant as a by-product of ferroalloy production transported by water along the soil column. Numerical simulations with the HYDRUS 1D software have been performed to model water dynamics along the uppermost 6 meters of soil at the investigated sites, over a time range of 4 years (2013–2016). A homogeneous domain, with a constant Ks value measured in the field for the top layer, has been compared against a heterogeneous case, in which the distribution of lithological categories has been determined via indicator kriging, based on available stratigraphic data. Surface recharge and evapotranspiration have been estimated from meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, global solar radiation and wind speed) available on an hourly basis. Numerical results allowed to characterize the time evolution of the zero-flux-plane (ZFP) depth, defined as the plane separating zones with upward and downward water flux in a thoroughly wetted soil, when evaporation and drainage are simultaneously occurring. Key findings are: (i) for the whole simulated period, the ZFP oscillates between the ground surface and a maximum depth of about 20 cm, consistent with the vertical range where peak concentrations of heavy metals were found; (ii) simulations in the homogeneous and heterogeneous cases provided analogous results, highlighting the importance of the characterization of the top surface layer. 

Acknowledgments: The project PROFILES was awarded the 2019 edition of the Florisa Melone Award, promoted by the Italian Hydrological Society (SII). The authors thank the SII for the support. Part of the research was carried out within the ISEIA project of the University of Brescia (grant UNBSCLE 9015).

How to cite: Siena, M. and Peli, M.: Water content and metal pollution dynamics in the surface layer of urban soils: first results of the PROFILES project, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12444, 2021.

EGU21-11111 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

On the identifiability of soil hydraulic parameters in lysimeter experiments: a Bayesian perspective 

Marleen Schübl, Giuseppe Brunetti, and Christine Stumpp

Groundwater recharge through the vadose zone is an important yet hard to quantify variable. It is estimated from lysimeter experiments or mathematical modelling. For the simulation of groundwater recharge rates with a physically based model soil hydraulic properties (SHPs) have to be inversely estimated because SHPs from laboratory experiments can only be poorly transferred to field conditions. Still, also the inverse estimation of SHPs, is associated with experimental and modeling uncertainties that propagate into the recharge prediction. New methods are thus required improving the inverse estimation of SHPs and reducing the uncertainty in groundwater recharge prediction. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how the assimilation of different types of soil water measurements for the inverse estimation of SHPs with the HYDRUS-1D software affects the estimated uncertainty. For this purpose, observations from a monolithic lysimeter experiment (i.e. lysimeter outflow, soil pressure head and volumetric soil water content at two different depths) have been combined in the different modeling scenarios and coupled with a Bayesian analysis to inversely estimate SHPs and assess their uncertainty. Posterior predictive checks showed that the simultaneous assimilation of outflow and soil pressure head led to the smallest uncertainty in groundwater recharge prediction. This represented a reduction in uncertainty compared to assimilating lysimeter outflow alone. Additional information provided by measurements of soil water content resulted in a reduced parameter uncertainty for residual and saturated water content, however, it did not further reduce the uncertainty in recharge prediction. Overall, this study shows the applicability of a Bayesian analysis for determining uncertainties in the inverse estimation of SHPs with lysimeter data and for the quantification of the associated uncertainty in groundwater recharge prediction. Based on our results for the investigated site, we recommend simultaneous assimilation of lysimeter outflow and soil pressure head measurements to minimize uncertainty in groundwater recharge prediction. However, a more comprehensive analysis is required to make a generally valid recommendation for other soils or climates.

 

How to cite: Schübl, M., Brunetti, G., and Stumpp, C.: On the identifiability of soil hydraulic parameters in lysimeter experiments: a Bayesian perspective , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11111, 2021.

EGU21-9407 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

A modelling framework to predict transpiration reductions during drought based on soil hydraulics 

Andrea Carminati and Mathieu Javaux

There is increasing need for mechanistic and predictive models of transpiration and stomatal response to drought. Global measurements of transpiration showed that the decrease in soil moisture is a primary constrain on transpiration. Additionally, a recent meta-analysis indicated that stomatal closure is explained by the loss in soil hydraulic conductivity, more than that of the xylem. Despite these evidences on the role of soil drying as a key driver of transpiration reduction, the mechanisms by which soil drying impacts transpiration, including the effect of different soil hydraulic properties, are not fully understood.

Here, we propose that stomata regulate transpiration in such a way that the relation between transpiration and the difference in water potential between soil and leaves remains linear during soil drying and increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The onset of hydraulic nonlinearity sets the maximum stomatal conductance at a given soil water potential and VPD. The resulting trajectory of the stomatal conductance for varying soil water potentials and VPD depends on soil and plant hydraulics, with the soil hydraulic conductivity and root length being the most sensitive parameters.

From this hydraulic framework it follows that stomatal closure is not simply a function of soil moisture, soil water potential or leaf water potential. Instead, it depends on transpiration demand and soil-plant hydraulics in a predictable way. The proposed concept allows to predict transpiration reductions during drought with a limited number of parameters: transpiration demand, plant hydraulic conductivity, soil hydraulic conductivity and active root length. In conclusion, this framework highlights the role of the soil hydraulic conductivity as primary constrain on transpiration, and thus on stomatal conductance and photosynthesis.

How to cite: Carminati, A. and Javaux, M.: A modelling framework to predict transpiration reductions during drought based on soil hydraulics , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9407, 2021.

EGU21-12527 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Coupled water, vapor and heat flow in evaporation experiments under different boundary conditions

Sascha Iden, Johanna Blöcher, Efstathios Diamantopoulos, and Wolfgang Durner

Evaporation from bare soil is an important hydrological process which influences the water and energy budget at all scales. Modelling soil evaporation is complex because it involves coupled liquid, vapor and heat flow. Although high-quality experimental data and use of different boundary conditions is mandatory to validate theory and to discriminate between models, many controlled experiments are still restricted to single boundary conditions. We conducted laboratory bare-soil evaporation experiments with a sand and a silt loam with three atmospheric forcings, (i) wind, (ii) wind and short-wave radiation, and (iii) wind and intermittent short-wave radiation. The soil columns were instrumented with temperature sensors, mini-tensiometers, and relative humidity probes, and evaporation rates were measured gravimetrically. The evaporation experiments were then simulated with a coupled water, vapour and heat flow model. We show that the coupled model reproduces measured evaporation rates and soil state variables (pressure head and temperature) of the evaporation experiments very well. In particular, the onset of stage-two evaporation, characterized by a decrease in evaporation rate and an increase in soil temperature is predicted correctly. Notably, a soil surface resistance, which has been suggested in the literature as a necessary component of evaporation models, led to a gross underestimation of the evaporation rate and a mismatch of the transition to stage-2 evaporation for both soils, for all boundary conditions, and for different soil surface resistance models. This illustrates that the use of resistance factors in coupled water, vapor and heat flow modelling studies is not justified.

How to cite: Iden, S., Blöcher, J., Diamantopoulos, E., and Durner, W.: Coupled water, vapor and heat flow in evaporation experiments under different boundary conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12527, 2021.

EGU21-12566 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Actual evaporation from bare soils - A comparison of numerical modelling and field lysimeter data

Deep Chandra Joshi, Andre Peters, Sascha C. Iden, Beate Zimmermann, and Wolfgang Durner

Predicting evaporation from drying soils under limited water supply conditions, where water transfer to the atmosphere is limited primarily by soil hydraulic conductivity, is challenging. The parameterization of soil hydraulic properties (SHP) plays a crucial role in reliable predictions of evaporation. In particular, there are expected differences between traditional functions that consider water flow only in capillaries and functions that additionally consider non-capillary processes, i.e., water storage and film flow on particle surfaces and in corners and channels of pores. The non-capillary processes in simulating evaporation from soil surfaces become more important when the soil dries.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the applicability of different soil hydraulic function types in modelling the actual evaporation under water-limited conditions. Data were obtained from a large bare-soil field lysimeter (2.5 m height; 1 m2 surface area), where the lysimeter mass and outflow were measured in hourly time intervals. Precipitation and actual evaporation were calculated from the mass changes of the lysimeter, using a simplified version of the AWAT filter approach of Peters et al. (2017). Meteorological parameters to calculate the potential evaporation were taken from the nearest weather station. Potential evaporation rates were obtained by (i) using the FAO-56 version of the Penman-Monteith equation and (ii) scaling these values to match the bare soil potential evaporation.

The evaporation was simulated using two different models for soil hydraulic properties: i) van Genuchten Mualem (VGM) (only capillary storage and flow), and ii) Peters-Durner-Iden (PDI) (capillary and non-capillary storage and flow). The results show a systematic difference in evaporation prediction by applying the PDI and VGM models, with higher evaporation rates for the PDI model under dry conditions.

How to cite: Joshi, D. C., Peters, A., C. Iden, S., Zimmermann, B., and Durner, W.: Actual evaporation from bare soils - A comparison of numerical modelling and field lysimeter data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12566, 2021.

EGU21-14029 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

A physically-based soil surface model and its combination with numerical models for predicting bare-soil evaporation rates

Xiaocheng Liu, Chenming Zhang, Yue Liu, David Lockington, and Ling Li

Estimation of evaporation rates from soils is significant for environmental, hydrological, and agricultural purposes. Modeling of the soil surface resistance is essential to estimate the evaporation rates from bare soil. Empirical surface resistance models may cause large deviations when applied to different soils. A physically-based soil surface model is developed to calculate the surface resistance, which can consider evaporation on the soil surface when soil is fully saturated and the vapor flow below the soil surface after dry layer forming on the top. Furthermore, this physically-based expression of the surface resistance is added into a numerical model that considers the liquid water transport, water vapor transport, and heat transport during evaporation. The simulation results are in good agreement with the results from six soil column drying experiments.  This numerical model can be applied to predict or estimate the evaporation rate of different soil and saturation at different depths during evaporation.

How to cite: Liu, X., Zhang, C., Liu, Y., Lockington, D., and Li, L.: A physically-based soil surface model and its combination with numerical models for predicting bare-soil evaporation rates, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14029, 2021.

EGU21-15800 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Grassland dynamics of soil moisture and temperature

Stefano Ferraris, Mesmer N'Sassila, Alessio Gentile, Marta Galvagno, Herve Stevenin, Davide Canone, Maurizio Previati, Ivan Bevilacqua, Davide Gisolo, and Kevin Painter

Alpine ecosystems are vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Measurement sites at different altitude and aspect can provide precious information on them. Also, vadose rootzone plays a major role in partitioning fluxes. In this work field data of soil water content, matric potential and soil temperature in some mountain grassland sites are compared with simulations results of the CLM model (The Community Land Model, NCAR, US). These are key state variables regulating the physical processes that determine the flows of two main greenhouse gases, water vapour and carbon dioxide, to the atmosphere in the presence of vegetation.

Some transients show significant differences between data and CLM simulation results and further analyses are performed using the HYDRUS model from the US Salinity Laboratory, in order to better explore the soil, grass, and atmosphere roles in the dynamics of those state variables. Some insight is finally provided about the effects on water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes.

How to cite: Ferraris, S., N'Sassila, M., Gentile, A., Galvagno, M., Stevenin, H., Canone, D., Previati, M., Bevilacqua, I., Gisolo, D., and Painter, K.: Grassland dynamics of soil moisture and temperature, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15800, 2021.

EGU21-10915 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Improving the representation of cropland sites in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 5.0

Theresa Boas, Heye Bogena, Thomas Grünwald, Bernard Heinesch, Dongryeol Ryu, Marius Schmidt, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen

The incorporation of a comprehensive crop module in land surface models offers the possibility to study the effect of agricultural land use and land management changes on the terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. It may help to improve the simulation of biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes on regional and global scales in the framework of climate and land use change. In this study, the performance of the crop module of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) was evaluated at point scale with site specific field data focussing on the simulation of seasonal and inter-annual variations in crop growth, planting and harvesting cycles, and crop yields as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes. In order to better represent agricultural sites, the model was modified by (1) implementing the winter wheat subroutines after Lu et al. (2017) in CLM5; (2) implementing plant specific parameters for sugar beet, potatoes and winter wheat, thereby adding the two crop functional types (CFT) for sugar beet and potatoes to the list of actively managed crops in CLM5; (3) introducing a cover cropping subroutine that allows multiple crop types on the same column within one year. The latter modification allows the simulation of cropping during winter months before usual cash crop planting begins in spring, which is an agricultural management technique with a long history that is regaining popularity to reduce erosion and improve soil health and carbon storage and is commonly used in the regions evaluated in this study. We compared simulation results with field data and found that both the new crop specific parameterization, as well as the winter wheat subroutines, led to a significant simulation improvement in terms of energy fluxes (RMSE reduction for latent and sensible heat by up to 57 % and 59 %, respectively), leaf area index (LAI), net ecosystem exchange and crop yield (up to 87 % improvement in winter wheat yield prediction) compared with default model results. The cover cropping subroutine yielded a substantial improvement in representation of field conditions after harvest of the main cash crop (winter season) in terms of LAI magnitudes and seasonal cycle of LAI, and latent heat flux (reduction of winter time RMSE for latent heat flux by 42 %). Our modifications significantly improved model simulations and should therefore be applied in future studies with CLM5 to improve regional yield predictions and to better understand large-scale impacts of agricultural management on carbon, water and energy fluxes.

How to cite: Boas, T., Bogena, H., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Ryu, D., Schmidt, M., Vereecken, H., Western, A., and Hendricks-Franssen, H.-J.: Improving the representation of cropland sites in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 5.0, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10915, 2021.

EGU21-4128 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

How soil hydrology reacts during strong precipitation events?

Antoine Sobaga, Florence Habets, Bertrand Decharme, and Noële Enjelvin

In the context of climate change, strong precipitation events tend to increase in intensity and frequency. Such extreme events are associated with the genesis of fast infiltration into the soil, which can generate a very dynamic contribution of the groundwater, as it was observed during the June 2016 flood event in the Paris basin. An issue is that these events are poorly simulated, limiting the ability to monitor and forecast such event. Even with a physically based model such as the Interaction between Soil Biosphere Atmosphere soil multilayer diffusion scheme (ISBADF) the hydrodynamic of the simulated groundwater recharge at the basin scale was poor. Various hypotheses can explain these gaps like 1) a lack of physical processes such as preferential flows or double porosity 2) an inadapted characterization of soil properties and soil hydraulic properties 3) a bad representation of the vegetation properties; 4) or a too coarse spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation.

To answer these questions, four lysimeters of the experimental station of the French Scientific Interest Group for Industrial Wasteland (GISFI, http://gisfi.univ-lorraine.fr/) in Homécourt, France are used. Between 2009 and 2016, the total weight, the drained flow at the base of the lysimeter, and suction/moisture content/temperature were measured of each soil column every hour at 50cm, 100cm and 150cm depth. Ten intense rainfall events were selected by the daily rainfall quantile 99. These lysimeters are cylinders (2m depth*1m diameter) and contain monoliths industrialized soils with a silty-sandy texture. Lysimeters 1 and 2 have no vegetation, contrary to the lysimeter 3 with alfalfa cover, and lysimeter 4 with Noccaea caerulescens cover. In this study, ISBADF was used to simulate each lysimeter. The local scale and high frequency evolution of soil moisture, temperature profile, drainage rate and water storage were assessed, based on soil-water retention and conductivity curves from the Brooks and Corey model. For each lysimeter, hydrodynamic parameters were determined based on the observations. The values found for these particular soils are very different from the values expected by the literature.

With the fitted soil parameters, ISBADF shows a high performance in reproducing temperature profiles (R² & NSE>0,9) and has good scores for other parameters (R² & NSE>0,6). During intense precipitation, we can reproduce the drained flow at 2m depth; nevertheless, differences on the drainage period and the maximum intensity of drainage were noticed: drainage duration is generally longer for simulations with vegetation and maximum intensity seems too important for the simulations.

Finally, this multi-parameter analysis at a local scale and high frequency demonstrates the good infiltration and vegetation processes of the ISBADF model, even during intense rainfall. This study seems to show that there is no need to modify the physics of the model processes, but that efforts should focus on the characterization of soil properties.

How to cite: Sobaga, A., Habets, F., Decharme, B., and Enjelvin, N.: How soil hydrology reacts during strong precipitation events?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4128, 2021.

EGU21-8063 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

Modeling groundwater table and runoff in self-organizing hydrologically sensitive areas

Naaran Brindt, Steven Pacenka, Brian K. Richards, and Tammo S. Steenhuis

Understanding the hydrology of hydrologically sensitive areas (or runoff source areas) is crucial for evaluating and predicting runoff and the environmental fate of applied chemicals. However, while modeling these areas, one must deal with an overwhelmingly complex, coupled nonlinear system with feedbacks that operate at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Sufficient detailed information on the physical environment that these models represent is often not available. Consequently, the simulation's results, even after extensive calibration, are often disappointing. Fortunately, self-organization of hydrological systems' makes it possible to simplify watershed models and consider the landscape functions instead of small-scale physics. These simplified (or surrogate) models provide the same or better objective results than their complex counterparts, are much less data-intensive, and can be used for engineering applications and planning purposes.

This study aims to experimentally expose the landscape hydrological self-organization of a periodically saturated variable source area with a shallow perched water table and a humid climate. The study site is a four-hectare runoff source area near Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, US. The saturated hydraulic conductivity is greater than the rainfall intensity. The area has a single outlet through a notched weir, and the only inflow is from precipitation. We analyzed observed water table heights and field outflow and found the theory behind the self-organization of runoff processes specific to that landscape type. We determined a priori the thresholds for runoff in a surrogate model using the soil moisture retention curve. 

Weir measurements showed that outflow on the day following rainfall had decreased by orders of magnitude, indicating the soil water had returned to static equilibrium. Under the equilibrated state, established theory indicates that the matric potential decreases linearly with depth above the shallow groundwater. The matric potential (and thus the retention curve) determined the soil water distribution. Another property from the whole field perspective is that excess rainfall above saturation becomes runoff.

The reason for self-organization of the source area was that the soil moisture retention curve (which is similar for the whole source area) determined daily both the soil moisture content and the water table change using rainfall and evaporation as drivers. Since the source area behaved similarly, a simple surrogate water balance could predict the aggregated area's hydrological behavior. The nonlinear and small-scale physics associated with the field's complexity determined the rate that equilibrium is reached, which is always less than one day due to high macropore conductivity, greatly simplifying surrogate models that make daily predictions.

How to cite: Brindt, N., Pacenka, S., Richards, B. K., and Steenhuis, T. S.: Modeling groundwater table and runoff in self-organizing hydrologically sensitive areas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8063, 2021.

EGU21-16172 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.2

A hysteretic model for rainfall-runoff of a simplifed catchment 

Denis Flynn and Warren Roche
The soil can be modelled as a porous medium in which the three phases of matter coexist and produce the emergent phenomenon of hysteresis.
Rate-independent hysteresis is a nonlinear phenomenon where the output depends not only on the current input but also the previous history of inputs to the system. In multiphase porous media such as soils, the hysteresis is in the relationship between the soil-moisture content, and the capillary pressure.
In this work, we develop a simplified hysteretic rainfall-runoff model consisting of the following subsystems that capture much of the physics of flow through a slab of soil:
1) A slab of soil where rainfall enters and if enough water is present in the soil, it will subsequently drain into the groundwater reservoir. This part of the model is represent by ODE with a Preisach operator.
2) A runoff component: If the rainfall exceeds the maximum infiltration rate of the soil, the excess will become surface runoff. This part of the model is represented by a series of two hysteretic reservoirs instead of the two linear reservoirs in the literature.
3) A ground water storage and outflow subsystem component: this is also modelled by a hysteretic reservoir. Finally, the outputs from the groundwater output and the overland flow are combined to give the total runoff. We will examine this model and compare it with non-hysteretic case both qualitatively and quantitively.

How to cite: Flynn, D. and Roche, W.: A hysteretic model for rainfall-runoff of a simplifed catchment , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16172, 2021.

HS8.3.3 – Soil-Plant Interaction

EGU21-9710 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3 | Highlight

Does the lack of root hairs alter root system architecture of Zea mays?

Steffen Schlüter, Eva Lippold, Maxime Phalempin, and Doris Vetterlein

Root hairs are one root trait among many which enables plants to adapt to environmental conditions. How different traits are coordinated and whether some are mutually exclusive is currently poorly understood. Comparing a root hair defective mutant with its corresponding wild-type we explored if and how the mutant exhibited root growth adaption strategies and as to how far this depended on the substrate.

Zea mays root hair defective mutant (rth3) and the corresponding wild-type siblings were grown on two substrates with contrasting texture and hence nutrient mobility. Root system architecture was investigated over time using repeated X-ray computed tomography.

There was no plastic adaption of root system architecture to the lack of root hairs, which resulted in lower uptake in particular in the substrate with low P mobility. The function of the root hairs for anchoring did not result in different depth profiles of the root length density between genotypes. Both maize genotypes showed a marked response to substrate. This was well reflected in the spatiotemporal development of rhizosphere volume fraction but especially in the strong response of root diameter to substrate, irrespective of genotype.

The most salient root plasticity trait was root diameter in response to substrate, whereas coping mechanisms for missing root hairs were less evident. Further experiments are required to elucidate whether observed differences can be explained by mechanical properties beyond mechanical impedance, root or microbiome ethylene production or differences in diffusion processes within the root or the rhizosphere.

How to cite: Schlüter, S., Lippold, E., Phalempin, M., and Vetterlein, D.: Does the lack of root hairs alter root system architecture of Zea mays?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9710, 2021.

EGU21-8151 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Towards the consideration of soil-root resistances in root water uptake models with macroscopic representations of hydraulic root architecture

Jan Vanderborght, Valentin Couvreur, Felicien Meunier, Andrea Schnepf, Harry Vereecken, Martin Bouda, and Mathieu Javaux

Plant water uptake from soil is an important component of terrestrial water cycle with strong links to the carbon cycle and the land surface energy budget. To simulate the relation between soil water content, root distribution, and root water uptake, models should represent the hydraulics of the soil-root system and describe the flow from the soil towards root segments and within the 3D root system architecture according to hydraulic principles. We have recently demonstrated how macroscopic relations that describe the lumped water uptake by all root segments in a certain soil volume, e.g. in a thin horizontal soil layer in which soil water potentials are uniform, can be derived from the hydraulic properties of the 3D root architecture. The flow equations within the root system can be scaled up exactly and the total root water uptake from a soil volume depends on only two macroscopic characteristics of the root system: the root system conductance, Krs, and the uptake distribution from the soil when soil water potentials in the soil are uniform, SUF. When a simple root hydraulic architecture was assumed, these two characteristics were sufficient to describe root water uptake from profiles with a non-uniform water distribution. This simplification gave accurate results when root characteristics were calculated directly from the root hydraulic architecture. In a next step, we investigate how the resistance to flow in the soil surrounding the root can be considered in a macroscopic root water uptake model. We specifically investigate whether the macroscopic representation of the flow in the root architecture, which predicts an effective xylem water potential at a certain soil depth, can be coupled with a model that describes the transfer from the soil to the root using a simplified representation of the root distribution in a certain soil layer, i.e. assuming a uniform root distribution.

How to cite: Vanderborght, J., Couvreur, V., Meunier, F., Schnepf, A., Vereecken, H., Bouda, M., and Javaux, M.: Towards the consideration of soil-root resistances in root water uptake models with macroscopic representations of hydraulic root architecture, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8151, 2021.

EGU21-1640 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3 | Highlight

Compensated root water uptake by split-rooted tomatoes

Alon Ben-Gal and Dov Tzohar

EGU21-4101 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Development of a Coupled 3D Groundwater-Vegetation Model for Coastal Wetlands

Shuxin Luo and Ting Fong May Chui

Mangrove forests are mainly found in the intertidal zone. Their ability to live in saline water enables them to outcompete non-mangrove vegetation in harsh and specific coastal environment. Nevertheless, they can still be invaded by alien mangrove species in suitable hydrological conditions, possibly resulting in more fragile ecosystems. Subtropical mangrove ecosystem demonstrates high variability in mangrove growth and hydrological conditions. However, their interactions are not well-understood, especially for the mangrove interspecific competition in varying groundwater conditions. To address this issue, the present study developed a coupled three-dimensional groundwater-vegetation model based on MANTRA (MANHAM-SUTRA) to simultaneously simulate groundwater hydrodynamics and mangrove distribution. The developed model was then applied to a subtropical mangrove swamp invaded by Sonneratia spp. in Mai Po Nature Reserve, Hong Kong, China. Vegetation domain is updated yearly using the annual mangrove areas extracted from remote-sensing images from 2000 to 2018. Then, multidecadal simulations were performed to validate the model in simulating the interaction between groundwater and mangrove growth. For the piezometric head, all RMS errors are smaller than 0.2 m and the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.86, which proves the effectiveness of the model in groundwater level simulation within Mai Po. The seasonal variations in the groundwater salinity were also well captured in both the fringe forest and the mudflat. The simulated biomass of Sonneratia spp. is mainly distributed at the river outlets, which is also in good agreement with the historical measurements. The validated model can then be used to predict the invasion and the distribution of the exotic mangrove species in the context of future environmental changes for better management of mangrove swamps. Since Sonneratia is a common alien species in southern China, the model can also be used for regional management of mangrove invasion and conservation of native species. The insights obtained from this study may also provide references for other similar studies examining the interaction between coastal groundwater and vegetation.

How to cite: Luo, S. and Chui, T. F. M.: Development of a Coupled 3D Groundwater-Vegetation Model for Coastal Wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4101, 2021.

EGU21-2579 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Modeling of plant water uptake in two distinct forest stands using whole-plant capacitance approach

Veronika Skalova, Michal Dohnal, Jana Votrubova, Tomas Vogel, and Miroslav Tesar

Soil-plant-atmosphere interactions are studied to improve the estimation of actual transpiration – the key part of the catchment water balance. The one-dimensional soil water flow model S1D, involving vertically distributed macroscopic root water uptake and whole-plant hydraulic capacitance, was used. The model is based on the numerical solution of Richards' equation coupled with a transient transpiration stream algorithm.

The study focuses on the catchment Liz located in the Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic. The catchment is covered with Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). In 2020, sap flow measurements by thermal dissipation probes were conducted at both forest environments. Soil water pressure head, soil water content, and soil temperature data, as well as complete meteorological data from the nearby meteorological station, were also available for the whole period of interest.

The registered sap flow and simulated transpiration fluxes are compared with a particular attention to the different behavior of isohydric (spruce) and anisohydric (beech) trees. The model reasonably well reproduces the plant responses caused by both the high midday potential transpiration demand and the occasional soil drought.

The research is supported by the Czech Science Foundation Project No. 20-00788S.

How to cite: Skalova, V., Dohnal, M., Votrubova, J., Vogel, T., and Tesar, M.: Modeling of plant water uptake in two distinct forest stands using whole-plant capacitance approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2579, 2021.

EGU21-4192 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Declining soil-root hydraulic conductance drives stomatal closure of tomato under drought 

Mohanned Abdalla, Andrea Carminati, Gaochao Cai, Mathieu Javaux, and Mutez Ahmed

The fundamental question as to what triggers stomatal closure during soil drying remains contentious. Thus, we urgently need to improve our understanding of stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. Here, we investigated the role of soil-plant hydraulic conductance (Ksp) on transpiration (E) and stomata regulation. We used a root pressure chamber to measure the relation between E, leaf xylem water potential (ψleaf-x) and soil water potential (ψsoil) in tomato. Additional measurements of ψleaf-x were performed with unpressurized plants. A soil-plant hydraulic model was used to simulate E(ψleaf-x) for decreasing ψsoil. In wet soils, E(ψleaf-x) had a constant slope while in dry soils the slope decreased, with ψleaf-x rapidly and nonlinearly decreasing for moderate increases in E. The ψleaf-x measured in pressurized and unpressurized plants matched well, which indicates that the shoot hydraulic conductance did not decrease during soil drying and that the decrease in Ksp is caused by a decrease in soil-root conductance. The decrease of E matched well the onset of hydraulic nonlinearity. Our findings demonstrate that stomatal closure prevents the drop in ψleaf-x caused by a decrease in Ksp and elucidate a strong correlation between stomatal regulation and belowground hydraulic limitation.

How to cite: Abdalla, M., Carminati, A., Cai, G., Javaux, M., and Ahmed, M.: Declining soil-root hydraulic conductance drives stomatal closure of tomato under drought , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4192, 2021.

EGU21-14006 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

The plant water pump: why water flows uphill of water potential gradients in a root hydraulic anatomy model

Valentin Couvreur, Adrien Heymans, Guillaume Lobet, Malcolm Bennett, and Xavier Draye

Guttation is the exudation of xylem sap from vascular plant leaves. This process is particularly interesting because in its configuration root water uptake occurs against the hydrostatic pressure driving force. Hence, it emphasizes the contribution of another driving force that lifts water in plants: the osmotic potential gradient.

The current paradigm of root water uptake explains that, due to the endodermal apoplastic barrier, water flows across root radius from the same principles as through selective membranes: driven by the total water potential gradient. This theory relies on the idea that during guttation, osmolites loaded in xylem vessels decrease xylem total water potential, making it more negative than the total soil water potential, and generating water inflow by osmosis as in an osmometer.

However, this theory fails at explaining experiments in which guttation occurs without sufficient solute loading in root xylem of maize (Enns et al., 1998; Enns et al., 2000) and arrowleaf saltbush (Bai et al., 2007) among others; studies concluding that experimental observations “could not be explained with the current theories in plant physiology”. Such flow rates towards combined increasing pressure potentials and increasing osmotic potentials between separate apoplastic compartments would necessitate an effective root radial conductivity that is negative; a mind bender.

What piece of hydraulic network would make it possible for water to flow against the total water potential driving force?

We implemented Steudle’s composite water transport model in the explicit root cross-section anatomical hydraulic network MECHA (Couvreur et al., 2018). All apoplastic, transmembrane and symplastic pathways are interconnected in the network. The results show that while root radial conductivity is particularly sensitive to cell membrane permeability, the combination of conductive plasmodesmata and increased dilution of protoplast osmotic potentials inwards is a key to explain root water flow towards increasing total potentials. A triple cell theory is suggested as new paradigm of root radial flow.

References

Bai X-F, Zhu J-J, Zhang P, Wang Y-H, Yang L-Q, Zhang L (2007) Na+ and Water Uptake in Relation to the Radial Reflection Coefficient of Root in Arrowleaf Saltbush Under Salt Stress. Journal of Integrative Plant Biology 49: 1334-1340

Couvreur V, Faget M, Lobet G, Javaux M, Chaumont F, Draye X (2018) Going with the Flow: Multiscale Insights into the Composite Nature of Water Transport in Roots. Plant Physiology 178: 1689-1703

Enns LC, Canny MJ, McCully ME (2000) An investigation of the role of solutes in the xylem sap and in the xylem parenchyma as the source of root pressure. Protoplasma 211: 183-197

Enns LC, McCully ME, Canny MJ (1998) Solute concentrations in xylem sap along vessels of maize primary roots at high root pressure. J. Exp. Bot. 49: 1539-1544

How to cite: Couvreur, V., Heymans, A., Lobet, G., Bennett, M., and Draye, X.: The plant water pump: why water flows uphill of water potential gradients in a root hydraulic anatomy model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14006, 2021.

EGU21-15095 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3 | Highlight

Impact of soil water potential pattern on root water uptake distribution and leaf water potential

Ali Mehmandoost Kotlar and Mathieu Javaux

Root water uptake is a major process controlling water balance and accounts for about 60% of global terrestrial evapotranspiration. The root system employs different strategies to better exploit available soil water, however, the regulation of water uptake under the spatiotemporal heterogeneous and uneven distribution of soil water is still a major question. To tackle this question, we need to understand how plants cope with this heterogeneity by adjustment of above ground responses to partial rhizosphere drying. Therefore, we use R-SWMS simulating soil water flow, flow towards the roots, and radial and the axial flow inside the root system to perform numerical experiments on a 9-cell gridded rhizotrone (50 cm×50 cm). The water potentials in each cell can be varied and fixed for the period of simulation and no water flow is allowed between cells while roots can pass over the boundaries. Then a static mature maize root architecture to different extents invaded in all cells is subjected to the various arrangements of cells' soil water potentials. R-SWMS allows determining possible hydraulic lift in drier areas. With these simulations, the variation of root water and leaf water potential will be determined and the role of root length density in each cell and corresponding average soil-root water potential will be statistically discussed.

How to cite: Mehmandoost Kotlar, A. and Javaux, M.: Impact of soil water potential pattern on root water uptake distribution and leaf water potential, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15095, 2021.

Recent advances in scaling up water flows on root system networks hold promise for improving predictions of water uptake at large scales. These developments are particularly timely, as persistent difficulties in getting Earth system models to accurately represent soil-root water flows, especially under drying or heterogeneous soil moisture conditions, are now a major obstacle describing the water limitation of terrestrial fluxes.

One recently developed upscaling formalism has been shown to be both free of discretisation error in flow predictions regardless of scale and with computational cost linearly diminishing with the number of soil subdomains considered. What has been missing from this approach, however, is a proven method to apply it generally – i.e. to an arbitrary root system architecture discretised on an arbitrary grid.

The work presented here demonstrates a general algorithm that can be applied to a wide range of root system architectures (the only assumption being that only one lateral root originates at one point along a parent root) discretised on a grid consisting of a series of soil layers of variable thickness, as is common in Earth system models. It is further shown theoretically that both of these restrictions can in principle be relaxed and that this approach can in principle be extended to conditions of soil moisture heterogeneity – i.e. situations where each root segment in a soil grid cell faces a different water potential at the soil-root interface.

This work represents both a practical advance bringing broad applicability to this upscaling approach and a major theoretical advance as exact solutions for water uptake under conditions of soil moisture heterogeneity within grid cells were previously unknown. While obtaining exact solutions despite heterogeneity within the grid cell requires a way of finding the overall mean soil water potential faced by the plant, this advance nevertheless points to possible directions of future research for overcoming the major hurdle of soil moisture heterogeneity.

How to cite: Bouda, M., Vanderborght, J., and Javaux, M.: A general approach for analytically upscaling the exact root water uptake equations despite heterogeneous soil moisture at the soil-root interface, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13601, 2021.

EGU21-10851 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Dynamic surface tension of xylem sap at the air-water interface

Reddy Prasanna Duggireddy, Eran Raveh, and Gilboa Arye

The surface tension (ST) of xylem sap at the water-air interface is a crucial phenomenon, influencing many physiological events such as air seeding and embolism, by which xylem vessels become air-filled and cease to function. Refilling of embolized, may relies on sap’s surface activity at the interface. It is commonly assumed that the ST of xylem sap is equal to the ST of pure water (72 mN/m). However, xylem sap is a complex solution and consists of surface-active molecules that may adsorb and accumulate at the water-air interface and thereby reduce the ST of water as a function of their aqueous concentration. However, when a new water-air interface is formed, equilibrium ST is not reached instantaneously. Specifically, amphiphilic molecules are kinetically adsorbed and undergo orientation at the interface following diffusion from the bulk solution. Dynamic ST of xylem sap and liquid-solid interactions, describing the surface phenomena of the xylem of vascular plants is currently not fully understood. This is mainly due to a lack of quantitative knowledge on the rate and extent of dynamic and equilibrium ST of sap. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to quantify the dynamic and equilibrium ST of xylem sap as a function of their aqueous concentration. We extracted xylem sap from lemon trees and measured ST as a function of time using the pendant drop technique. The dynamic ST data were analyzed using empirical and diffusion-control mathematical models which adequately described the exponential-like decay of the ST as a function of time. The results showed reduced ST of water in the xylem sap, indicating significant surface activity, reaching equilibrium ST values as low as 42 mN/m. The rate of ST decay was higher in high sap concentration and reduced in diluted one. The results of dynamic and equilibrium ST and the corresponding model will be presented and their implications for xylem hydraulic functioning will be discussed.

 

Keywords: Dynamic surface tension, Equilibrium surface tension, Diffusion, Xylem sap.

 

How to cite: Duggireddy, R. P., Raveh, E., and Arye, G.: Dynamic surface tension of xylem sap at the air-water interface, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10851, 2021.

EGU21-2859 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Water transport in European Beech roots (<5mm) under drought in the south of Lower Saxony

Eva Messinger, Heinz Coners, Dietrich Hertel, and Christoph Leuschner

Climate models predict hotter and dryer summers in Germany, with longer periods of extreme droughts like in summer 2018. How does this affect the water uptake and transport in tree roots growing in the top- and subsoil?

In summer 2018 and 2019 we measured the water transport in fine roots (<5mm) of European Beech on tertiary sand and triassic sandstone up to 2 m depth. We adapted the well-established HRM technique to enable measurements of very small sap flow rates in small roots. Thus, we measured the water transport as a temperature ratio of a stretching heat pulse.

Relating sap flow to root surface area, root depth, anatomy, soil moisture, and VPD allows for interesting insights in tree water uptake rates: Where are the limits of drought intensity and duration, for water uptake and recovery of small roots? Are there differences in the function of top- and subsoil roots? Are roots specialized for water transport or nutrient uptake? The investigated data gives a first hint on how the water transport in Beech roots differs with changes in the soil moisture and VPD under changing climate.

How to cite: Messinger, E., Coners, H., Hertel, D., and Leuschner, C.: Water transport in European Beech roots (<5mm) under drought in the south of Lower Saxony , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2859, 2021.

EGU21-6332 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

The effect of root hairs under drought in open field conditions

Maria Marin, Deborah S Feeney, Lawrie K Brown, Muhammad Naveed, Siul Ruiz, Nicolai Koebernick, Anthony G Bengough, Paul D Hallett, Tiina Roose, Jaime Puértolas, Ian C Dodd, and Timothy S George

Root hairs represent an attractive target for future crop breeding, to improve resource use efficiency and stress tolerance. Most studies investigating root hairs have focused on plant tolerance to phosphorus deficiency and rhizosheath formation under controlled conditions. However, data on the interplay between root hairs and open-field systems, under contrasting soils and climate conditions, are limited. Although root hairs and rhizosphere are assumed to play a key role in regulating plant water relations, their effect on plant water uptake has been rarely investigated. As such, this study aimed to experimentally elucidate some of the impacts that root hairs have on plant performance under field conditions and water deficit. A field experiment was set up in Scotland for two consecutive years, in 2017 (a typical year) and 2018 (the driest growing season ever recorded at this site), under different soil textures (i.e., clay loam vs. sandy loam). Five barley (Hordeum vulgare) genotypes exhibiting variation in root hair length and density were used in the study. Measurements of root hair density, length and its correlation with rhizosheath weight highlighted trait robustness in the field under variable environmental conditions. Root hairs did not confer a notable advantage to barley under optimal conditions, but under soil water deficit root hairs enhanced plant water status and stress tolerance. This resulted in less negative leaf water potential and lower leaf abscisic acid concentration, while promoting shoot phosphorus accumulation. Specifically, minimum leaf water potential differed significantly (P = 0.021) between the wild type (-1.43 MPa) and its hairless mutant (-1.76 MPa) grown in clay loam, with the mutant exhibiting greater water stress. In agreement with leaf water potential measurements, at the peak of water stress, leaf abscisic acid concentration was significantly (P = 0.023) greater for the hairless mutant (394 ng g-1) than the wild type (250 ng g-1) grown in clay loam soil. Under water deficit conditions, in clay loam soil, shoot phosphorus accumulation in the wild type (2.49 mg P shoot-1) was over twice that in the hairless mutant (1.10 mg P shoot-1). Furthermore, the presence of root hairs did not decrease yield under optimal conditions, while root hairs enhanced yield stability under drought. While yield of the hairless mutant significantly (P = 0.012) decreased from 2017 to 2018 in both clay (-26%) and sandy (-33%) loam soils, no significant differences were found between years in the yield of the wild type. Therefore, selecting for beneficial root hair traits can enhance yield stability without diminishing yield potential, overcoming the breeder’s dilemma of trying to simultaneously enhance both productivity and resilience. To our knowledge, the present findings provide the first evidence of the effect of root hairs under drought in open field conditions (i.e., real agricultural system). Therefore, along with the well-recognized role for P uptake, maintenance or enhancement of root hairs can represent a key trait for breeding the next generation of crops for improved drought tolerance in relation to climate change.

How to cite: Marin, M., Feeney, D. S., Brown, L. K., Naveed, M., Ruiz, S., Koebernick, N., Bengough, A. G., Hallett, P. D., Roose, T., Puértolas, J., Dodd, I. C., and George, T. S.: The effect of root hairs under drought in open field conditions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6332, 2021.

EGU21-16354 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Models of facilitated transport of soil moisture through root systems

Andrew Mair, Lionel Dupuy, and Mariya Ptashnyk

Background - Plants grow complex root architectures to explore the soil volume and acquire water and nutrients. The growth of root systems affects the hydraulic properties of soil, and experimental investigations suggest that the hydraulic conductivity is significantly increased in vegetated soil with in comparison to a fallow soil. The mechanisms through which this occurs are not well characterised.

Material and Methods - In this work we propose a novel model for moisture transport through vegetated soil. The model reflects the hypothesis that water flow is a function of the direction of an incumbent root structure, and we use data from constant-head infiltration assays [1] to test hypotheses on the nature of water transport in the soil adjacent to plant roots.

Results - Results suggest that differences in hydraulic conductivity between vegetated and fallow soil may be due to preferential flow of moisture in the direction of plant roots.

Conclusion – The research therefore, confirms that root architectural parameters may play a determinant role in predicting water infiltration of vegetated soil. This could open new avenues of research to improve prediction and management of irrigation and flood defence.

 [1] Leung, A. K., Boldrin, D., Liang, T., Wu, Z. Y., Kamchoom, V., & Bengough, A. G. (2018). Plant age effects on soil infiltration rate during early plant establishment. Géotechnique, 68(7), 646-652.

Figure 1 Simulation of water infiltration in vegetated and non-vegetated soil. (A) Simulated root system. (B) Construction of oriented root volumetric density used for computation of facilitated transport. (C) Water fluxes within the root system. (D) Water fluxes in fallow soil.

How to cite: Mair, A., Dupuy, L., and Ptashnyk, M.: Models of facilitated transport of soil moisture through root systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16354, 2021.

EGU21-390 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

A new numerical method to approximate root water uptake fluxes in a mixed-dimensional 1D-3D setting

Timo Koch, Hanchuan Wu, Kent-André Mardal, Rainer Helmig, and Martin Schneider

1D-3D methods are used to describe root water and nutrient uptake in complex root networks. Root systems are described as networks of line segments embedded in a three-dimensional soil domain. Particularly for dry soils, local water pressure and nutrient concentration gradients can be become very large in the vicinity of roots. Commonly used discretization lengths (for example 1cm) in root-soil interaction models do not allow to capture these gradients accurately. We present a new numerical scheme for approximating root-soil interface fluxes. The scheme is formulated in the continuous PDE setting so that is it formally independent of the spatial discretization scheme (e.g. FVM, FD, FEM). The interface flux approximation is based on a reconstruction of interface quantities using local analytical solutions of the steady-rate Richards equation. The local mass exchange is numerically distributed in the vicinity of the root. The distribution results in a regularization of the soil pressure solution which is easier to approximate numerically. This technique allows for coarser grid resolutions while maintaining approximation accuracy. The new scheme is verified numerically against analytical solutions for simplified cases. We also explore limitations and possible errors in the flux approximation with numerical test cases. Finally, we present the results of a recently published benchmark case using this new method.

How to cite: Koch, T., Wu, H., Mardal, K.-A., Helmig, R., and Schneider, M.: A new numerical method to approximate root water uptake fluxes in a mixed-dimensional 1D-3D setting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-390, 2021.

EGU21-7796 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

The root-fungus interplay in foraging for heterogeneous sources

Pavlína Stiblíková, Martin Weiser, and Jan Jansa

The distribution of nutrients in the soil is very heterogeneous at different scales relevant to plant roots, and plants respond to this heterogeneity by the architecture of the root system. The ability to form the root system in terms of the most effective nutrient uptake differs among species. Moreover, over 70% of terrestrial plants create arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis, which helps them to acquire nutrients from the soil. It has been shown that plants with mycorrhizal symbiosis acquire nutrients from heterogeneous soil differently than plants without mycorrhizal fungi. Our study aims to estimate the link between the root and fungal foraging for heterogeneous sources using an experimental approach. We show the root foraging precision of nine plant species together with three fungal species in the heterogeneous soil environment. The first results suggest that root foraging is not affected by the presence of mycorrhizal fungi and that fungal foraging may form in the opposite direction than root foraging.

How to cite: Stiblíková, P., Weiser, M., and Jansa, J.: The root-fungus interplay in foraging for heterogeneous sources, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7796, 2021.

EGU21-8780 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Reducing leaching using the threshold nitrate root-uptake phenomena

Daniel Kurtzman, Beeri Kanner, Yehuda Levy, Ido Nitsan, and Asher Bar-Tal

Reducing nitrate leaching from agricultural land to aquifers is a high priority concern for more than a half a century. Theory and observations of a threshold concentration of nitrate in the root-zone (Cmax), from which the leachate concentration increases at higher rates with increasing root-zone nitrate concentration, are presented. Cmax is derived both by direct results from container experiments with varying nitrogen (N) fertigation, and as calibration parameter in N-transport models beneath commercial agricultural plots. For five different crops, Cmax ranged between 20-45 mg/l of NO3-N derived from experiments and models. However, for lettuce, which was irrigated with a large leaching fraction, a Cmax could not be defined. For the crops irrigated and fertilized in the warm/dry season (corn and citrus) experiments show a dramatic change in leachate concentrations and simulations reveal a wide range of sensitivity of leachate NO3-N concentration to Cmax. Annual crops that are irrigated and fertilized in the cool/wet season (e.g. potato in Mediterranean climate) showed a distinct Cmax yet less dramatic than the summer-irrigated crops in the container experiment, and smaller impact of Cmax in models. Simulations showed that for summer-irrigated crops maintaining fertigation at C<Cmax has a significant effect on deep leachate concentrations, whereas for the winter annual crops the simulations revealed no threshold. It is suggested that for summer-irrigated crops fertigation below Cmax robustly serves the co-sustainability of intensive agriculture and aquifer water quality, for the winter crops it is suggested but benefits are not robust. For short season, small root-system crops (lettuce) efforts should be made to detach the crop from the soil.

How to cite: Kurtzman, D., Kanner, B., Levy, Y., Nitsan, I., and Bar-Tal, A.: Reducing leaching using the threshold nitrate root-uptake phenomena, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8780, 2021.

A main problem currently facing agriculture is drought. More frequent and longer drought periods are predicted to threaten agricultural yields in future. The capacity of soils to hold water is a highly important factor controlling drought stress intensity for plants during the growing phase. Amorphous silica (ASi) has been suggested to be able to mitigate these problems. Amorphous silica pools in natural soils are in the range of 0-6%. However, ASi pools have declined in agricultural soils since the development of high intensity agriculture to values of <1% due to yearly crop harvests, decreasing the water holding capacity of the soils. Here, we analyzed the effect of ASi on the water holding capacity (WHC) of soils. ASi was mixed at varying rates with different soils. Afterwards, the retention curve of the soils was determined. Here we show that ASi increases the soil water holding capacity substantially, by forming silica gels with a water content at soil saturation higher than 700%. An increase of ASi by 1% or 5% (weight) increased the water content at all studied water potentials and plant available water increased by >40% and >60%, respectively. In a lysimeter experiment we found that ASi strongly increased the WHC of soils, too. In a field experiment we found an increase of soil moisture after ASi fertilization over the whole growing season. Furthermore, wheat plant grown in this field experiment suffered less from drought and had a later onset of senescence. Our results suggest that ASi is a main control on soil water availability, potentially decreases drought stress for plants in future.

How to cite: Schaller, J.: Amorphous silica increases the water holding capacity of soils – from mechanistic understanding to field experiments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-663, 2021.

EGU21-6586 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3 | Highlight

Root Exudates Alters Nutrient Transport in Soil

Amit Paporisch, Harel Harel Bavli, Rachel Strickman, Rebecca Neuman, and Nimrod Schwartz

Root exudates affect the physical properties of the rhizosphere, but how these changes affect its solute transport properties is unknown. Understanding how exudates affect the rhizosphere’s transport properties could advance the knowledge on nutrient dynamics in soil and its availability to plants. In the current study, we tested the effects of two exudates (chia mucilage and wheat root exudates) on the transport of iodide and potassium in soil. Solute breakthrough experiments, conducted in saturated loamy sand or coarser textured quartz sand, revealed that increasing the exudate concentration in soil results in increasingly non-equilibrium transport of both solutes. This was demonstrated by an initial solute breakthrough at a lower pore volume, followed by the arrival of the peak solute concentration at a higher pore volume. These patterns were more pronounced in soil mixed with mucilage, and in the quartz sand. An equilibrium or a physical non-equilibrium mobile-immobile transport model, fitted to the measured results, indicated an increase in the fraction of immobile water when increasing the exudates’ concentration in soil. For example, the estimated fraction of immobile water was up from 0 in quartz sand without exudates to 0.75 at a mucilage concentration of 0.2% in quartz sand. The solutes’ breakthrough under variably saturated conditions was also altered by the exudates, demonstrated by higher amounts of the solutes measured per volume of water extracted from soil mixed with exudates, compared to soil without exudates. The results indicate that exudates have a major effect on the rhizosphere’s transport properties, most likely since in its presence low-conducting flow paths are formed, resulting in a physical non-equilibrium during solute transport.

How to cite: Paporisch, A., Harel Bavli, H., Strickman, R., Neuman, R., and Schwartz, N.: Root Exudates Alters Nutrient Transport in Soil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6586, 2021.

EGU21-15662 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Field measured and simulated soil-plant water relations in maize

Helena Jorda Guerra, Mutez Ahmed, Anke Coolens, Mathieu Javaux, Doris Vetterlein, and Jan Vanderborght

Sustaining world food production under a changing climate and a growing population demands for higher optimization of agricultural resources including water. This requires an accurate understanding and prediction of root water uptake from soils, which depends on several root traits. The role of root hairs in root water uptake is still under debate, with experimental data that both prove and reject the hypothesis that root hairs can facilitate root water uptake, especially under drought conditions. Our objective was to investigate the effect of root hairs in maize at the field scale. A wildtype maize variety (with root hairs) and a hairless mutant were grown in two substrates (loam and sand) at a field site near Halle, Germany (Vetterlein et al., 2020, JPLN). Transpiration, leaf water potential, soil water content and potentials were monitored during 2019 and 2020. Root length density and leaf area were measured at four different plant development stages. A version of Hydrus 1D coupled with Couvreur’s macroscopic root water uptake model (Couvreur et al., 2012, HESS) was parameterized and used to further investigate soil-water relations in this field experiment. In both years, plants emptied the available water in the profile by July, and relied on rain and irrigation afterwards. Non-significant differences in cumulative water losses from the soil, estimated from soil water content measurements, were observed among the four treatments in both years. These results are in agreement with simulated water losses, which also showed small differences in cumulative transpiration among treatments. Mutant plants developed significantly smaller shoots while transpiring similar water volumes as wildtype plants, indicating lower water use efficiency. While there was no visible effect of the genotype in the soil-water relations, a clear effect of the soil type was observed. Simulated collar water potentials and field observations of rolled leaves indicated water stress occurred first in the loam compared to the sand treatments. Plants grew faster in the loam, leading to earlier onset of water stress. Even though plants in the loam produced less roots than in the sand, the onset of stress was not caused by the smaller root system since simulations presuming a larger root system did not predict a later onset of stress. Similarly, a simulation run using a smaller root system in the sandy soil did not predict a significantly earlier onset of stress. Finally, although our model simulations considered only differences in root density among treatments and did not consider different root or rhizosphere properties of the different soils and genotypes, it simulated the observed water dynamics well. Water depletion in the loamy soil was simulated earlier than it was measured. We hypothesize that this is caused by changing root hydraulic properties when roots develop and mature, and suggest that young roots do not start taking up water immediately. Nevertheless, the data quantity and quality obtained in this field experiment exposes the difficulties and challenges we face to monitor water potentials and fluxes in the soil-plant continuum in annual grasses at the field scale.

How to cite: Jorda Guerra, H., Ahmed, M., Coolens, A., Javaux, M., Vetterlein, D., and Vanderborght, J.: Field measured and simulated soil-plant water relations in maize, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15662, 2021.

EGU21-9459 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Tomato plants reuptake root exudates and alter carbon isotope fractionation under phosphorus deficiency

Raphael Tiziani, Fabio Trevisan, Youry Pii, Silvia Celletti, Stefano Cesco, and Tanja Mimmo

Plant roots are able to exude vast amounts of metabolites into the rhizosphere especially when subjected to phosphorus (P) deficiency to increase P solubility and thus its´ uptake. This causes noteworthy costs in terms of energy and carbon (C) for the plants. For this reason, we suggested that exudates reacquisition by roots could represent an energy saving strategy of plants. This study aimed at investigating the effect of P deficiency on the ability of hydroponically grown tomato plants to re-uptake specific metabolites generally present in root exudates by using 13C-labelled molecules. Hence, tomato plants have been grown for 21 days in full and P deficient nutrient solution. Exudates reuptake has been assessed by immersion of roots in a solution containing 13C labeled glycine, glucose, fructose, citrate, and malate. δ13C analysis was performed using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CFIRMS). Results revealed that P deficient tomato plants were able to take up significantly more citrate (+37%) and malate (+37%), when compared to controls. While also glycine (+42%) and fructose (+49%) uptake was enhanced in P shortage, glucose acquisition was not affected by plants nutritional status. Unexpectedly, results also highlighted that P deficiency leads to a 13C enrichment in both tomato roots and shoots over time (shoots +2.66 ‰, roots +2.64 ‰, compared to control plants). This could be explained by stomata closure triggered by P deficiency resulting in an increased use of 13CO2 in respect to 12CO2, normally preferred by RuBisCO. Our findings highlight that tomato plants are able to take up a wide range of metabolites belonging to root exudates, thus optimizing C trade off. This trait is particularly evident when plants grew in P deficiency.

How to cite: Tiziani, R., Trevisan, F., Pii, Y., Celletti, S., Cesco, S., and Mimmo, T.: Tomato plants reuptake root exudates and alter carbon isotope fractionation under phosphorus deficiency, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9459, 2021.

EGU21-294 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

The importance of rock particle size to localized plant species distribution in subnival habitats of the Central Great Caucasus Mountains

Tamar Jolokhava, Otar Abdaladze, Zezva Asanidze, and Zaal Kikvidze

The importance of rock particle size to localized plant species distribution in subnival habitats of the Central Great Caucasus Mountains

Tamar Jolokhava1,2,5*, Otar Abdaladze2 , Zezva Asanidze2,4 and Zaal Kikvidze 3,4

Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Georgia1

School of Natural Sciences and Medicine, Institute of Ecology, Ilia State University, Georgia 2

Institute of Ethnobiology and Socio-ecology, Ilia State University, Georgia 3

Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, Georgia 4

Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia, Science-Research Centre of Agriculture, Soil Fertility Division, Georgia5

 

Subnival habitats of the Central Caucasus represent typical rocky environments with very sparse soil cover and patchy vegetation. We studied how plant species spatial distribution in a subnival habitat (alpine-nival ecotone) depends on the size of rock particles. As a first step we described the climate (mean air temperature and annual precipitation) at two sampling areas, Mt. Tetnuldi (43°01′49.9″N, 42°55′36.0″E) and Mt. Kazbegi (42°39′46.87″N; 44°33′12.87″E), at elevations of 3000 to 3100 m a. s. l. The major climatic characteristics of these two sampling areas were similar and the minor differences in them should not affect measurably the relationships between substrate coarse fragments and plant species distributions.

We categorized rock particles in following size classes (soil; 0.2-0.6cm; 0.6-2cm; 2-6cm; 6-20cm; 20-60cm).We found that large-sized rock particles (6-20cm; 20-60cm) prevailed on the surface, the largest class of 20-60cm was in a strong negative correlation with smaller classes (0.2-0.6cm, 0.6-2cm and 2-6cm), but correlation was insignificant between the large fragments(classes of 6-20cm and 20-60cm) and the soil.

We also examined how plant species associated with the rock particles of different sizes using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall, we recorded 58 species, out of which 31 species were frequent (>10) and were used in the CCA. Some plant species showed a clear preference to large rock fragments while other associated clearly with soil; in particular, Tephroseris karjaginii, Ziziphora puschkinii, Festuca supina, Minuartia inamoena and Saxifraga juniperifolia tended to colonise a substrate with large fragments (20-60cm), Senecio sosnowskyi and Ziziphora subnivalis showed certain affinity to rock fragment size of 6-20cm, while Carex tristis and Sibbaldia parviflorum prefered soil substratum. We found that, while large-sized rock particles (6-20cm; 20-60cm) prevailed on the surface, most plants were associated with relatively rare fine-grained substrata and, to a lesser extent, with even rarer soil-covered spots. Our results show that the differential preference of species for certain sizes of rock particles observed in our study can conform well to the patchy pattern of vegetation typical for subnival habitats: many species that prefer a fine-grained substratum might clump together at such fine-grained spots and form the patches of associated plants provided there are facilitative interactions among them; the species that prefer coarser-grained substrata might establish as solitary plants outside of the patches.

How to cite: Jolokhava, T., Abdaladze, O., Asanidze, Z., and Kikvidze, Z.: The importance of rock particle size to localized plant species distribution in subnival habitats of the Central Great Caucasus Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-294, 2021.

EGU21-10644 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3 | Highlight

Shooting the messenger: Identifying the mycorrhizal species transferring carbon between neighboring trees

Stav Livne- Luzon, Rotem Cahanovitc, and Tamir Klein

EMF play an important role in forests around the globe, by improving tree nutrition and water supply, as well as connecting different tree species through common mycorrhizal networks (CMN's). However, the extent to which EMF control resource sharing within these networks has not yet been thoroughly addressed. We constructed a simple network of tree-fungus-tree and monitored carbon flow from a 13CO2 labeled donor tree to the final recipient.  DNA Stable Isotope Probing (DNA-SIP) of ectomycorrhizal root tips was used to identify the main fungal symbionts involved in carbon transfer among trees. We used pairs of inter and intra-specie Pinus halepensis and Quercus calliprinos saplings, and examined the carbon dynamics for 40 days within the leaf, stem and root tissues. The peak of 13C in the roots of the donor trees was around day 4 post labeling, while the recipient roots peaked at day 9 with observed differences between pairs. The intrinsic tree carbon pool, and not the tree species identity, was the main factor governing carbon transfer between trees. Finally, we were able to identify the main fungal symbionts enriched with 13C. Our results add the "missing piece of the puzzle" by linking specific mycorrhizal species to carbon transfer within CMN's.

How to cite: Livne- Luzon, S., Cahanovitc, R., and Klein, T.: Shooting the messenger: Identifying the mycorrhizal species transferring carbon between neighboring trees, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10644, 2021.

EGU21-16234 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Effects of fine roots on the distribution of soil water and soil organic carbon in a shelterbelt modified agricultural system

Huijie Xiao, Junran Li, Zhiming Xin, Guan Wang, and Dong Wang

Shelterbelts, also termed windbreaks, play a significant role in reducing soil erosion, sand drift, and protecting crops, livestock and farmstead. Cropland shelterbelts are known to improve the microclimate and provide protection against sand-related damages to crops. However, the protection of shelterbelts to crops may be complicated by fine roots near the edge of the shelterbelt, which directly affects the absorption of soil water and the accumulation of soil organic carbon. In this study, we investigated the effects of shelterbelt fine roots on farmland soil water content (SWC) and soil organic carbon density in an agricultural system located in northern China. The distribution characteristics of fine-root biomass density, soil water content and soil organic carbon density were measured at the 0-200 cm soil depth in a farmland shelterbelt system at distances of 0.3H (H is the windbreak height), 0.5H, and 0.7H from the shelterbelt with three replicates. Soil samples were randomly collected in the center of the cropland. The results showed that fine roots of shelterbelts concentrated at the depth of the 20-60 cm soil layer, whereas the fine roots of the crop summer squash (Cucurbita pepo L.) were mainly found within the top 20 cm of the soil profile. With the presence of shelterbelt fine roots, strong SWC deficiency that occurred up to100 cm in the soil profile was observed. The SWC was deficient at all sampling points, the overall shallow layer deficient was larger than the deep layer. In contrast, the soil organic carbon was cumulative, and the overall deep accumulation was greater than the shallow layer. The effects of fine roots on SWC and soil organic carbon density variations in different soil layers were inconsistent. The information accrued in this study can be used to evaluate the effect of farmland shelterbelt on soil water and soil carbon in the Hetao irrigation area of Inner Mongolia, northern China.

How to cite: Xiao, H., Li, J., Xin, Z., Wang, G., and Wang, D.: Effects of fine roots on the distribution of soil water and soil organic carbon in a shelterbelt modified agricultural system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16234, 2021.

EGU21-13559 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Where do the good foragers live?

Martin Weiser, Tomáš Koubek, and Tomáš Herben

Plant species differ in their ability to preferentially grow their roots into nutrient-rich patches in the substrate - this aspect of plant phenotypic plasticity is known as "root foraging". Using a set of approx. 80 Central European herbaceous species of open habitats we show how the root foraging precision of the species is linked to their usual environment. We have obtained the root foraging data experimentally and we combine them with tabelar data that describe species' preference for soil moisture and soil nutrients availability (Ellenberg's Indicator Values), species' ability to occupy frequently disturbed habitats and typical habitats of the species in general. 

How to cite: Weiser, M., Koubek, T., and Herben, T.: Where do the good foragers live?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13559, 2021.

EGU21-1960 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.3

Effects of container size and fruit load intensity on tomato under salt stress

Kaining Zhou, Naftali Lazarovitch, and Jhonathan Ephrath

Container size and fruit load intensity are two common factors manipulated to regulate plant growth and development. As saline water is increasingly used for irrigation in arid and semi-arid regions, it is important to study effects of container size and fruit load intensity on tomato in both aboveground and belowground parts under salt stress. The experiment was conducted in a net house located in Sede Boqer Campus, Israel. Containers of four sizes (8-, 28-, 48-, and 200L with the same depth but vary in diameters), two salinity levels (1.5- and 7.5 dS m−1) and two crop load intensities (0% and 100%) were applied. Gas exchange parameters (i.e., stomatal conductance and CO2 assimilation rate), plant growth parameters (i.e., plant height and stem diameter), and root development were monitored periodically. Plant biomass and various root traits were measured at harvest. For aboveground part, results revealed that container size and salinity level significantly influenced gas exchange performance while fruit load intensity had no significant effect. Plants grown in larger containers without salt stress had higher stomatal conductance and CO2 assimilation rate. Plant height and stem diameter were significantly greater in plants grown in 200L than those in other containers despite salinity and fruit load levels. Moreover, plants grown in 200L containers exhibited significant increase of 56.3%, 152.9%, and 174.9% respectively in yield compared with those grown in 48-, 28- and 8L under salt stress. The increase magnitudes were greater when there was no salt stress: 109.0%, 430.8%, and 454.0% respectively. For belowground parts, increased container size leads to increased rooting depth. Besides, Minirhizotron data showed that in 200L containers, plants grown under low salinity without fruit developed the greatest total root length. More detailed root data will be presented.  It is concluded that container size has a pronounced effect on physiological behaviours of tomato plants. Therefore, properly increasing container size can alleviate yield reduction under saline irrigation.

How to cite: Zhou, K., Lazarovitch, N., and Ephrath, J.: Effects of container size and fruit load intensity on tomato under salt stress, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1960, 2021.

HS8.3.4 – Soil hydrology and irrigation in arid environments

EGU21-615 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4 | Highlight

The scientific activity of ICID to improve the irrigation in arid environments

Piergiorgio Manciola and Stefano Casadei

The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) was set up in 1950, with support from 11 countries as Founder Members, including Italy. Ital-ICID is the Italian National Committee of ICID founded in 1971, and is a scientific, technical, and professional not-for-profit organization working in the field of irrigation, drainage, land reclamation, and flood management, in accordance with the topics of the International Commission.

In this moment the environmental protection and the green economy are a very important goals, in this contest the ICID promotes and achieves equitable and sustainable development in agriculture water management. The actions of ICID are dedicated to improving the status of agricultural water management practices including rain-fed agriculture, supplemental irrigation, deficit irrigation and full irrigation, with a particular attention to the areas involved in extreme climate events, such as flood and droughts. ICID approach suggests cooperation rather than competition, and collaboration rather than individual actions to pave the way towards effective water management for securing the right of each and every individual to attain a fair share of water, food, energy, and stressed on the need to promote environment-friendly traditional wisdom.

ICID develops many annual and special publications promoting its activities, but “Irrigation and Drainage Journal” is the official international journal, and the flagship publication of ICID. It is a prestigious, peer-reviewed specialized publication that publishes papers on all scientific, technical, environmental and socio-economic issues associated with irrigation, drainage and flood management. The journal covers a wide range of subjects centering on dissemination of experience and new ideas in the quest for the sustainable use and protection of water and land to meet the World's increasing demand for food. Only in the last issues more than ten papers have been published concerning study on arid and semi-arid area, which involve the human intervention in the control of water for sustainable agricultural development.

For the future, ICID works towards enabling balance between agricultural and water policies, improving publicly operated irrigation schemes, advocating increased public and private investment in expansion of irrigated land, and modernizing existing infrastructure. The knowledge-based sharing of all aspects of agricultural water management, including collation of irrigation statistics, data and information exchange, sharing of successful management strategies, best practices, and local community involvement will be supported by ICID. It supports and encourages the multiple use of water, the use of non-conventional waters and the promotion of goods and services provided by irrigation systems, also supported by Information and Technology Communication tools. The cooperation mechanisms in ICID’s network are based on simple exchange of information through annual meetings, where practitioners, researchers and planners from all over the world share latest research and innovations. However, ICID also organizes triennial world irrigation and drainage congresses, world irrigation fora, regional conferences and workshops to address and discuss agricultural water management issues at global or regional level.

How to cite: Manciola, P. and Casadei, S.: The scientific activity of ICID to improve the irrigation in arid environments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-615, 2021.

Irrigation with Treated Wastewater (TWW) is a well-known and long-established agricultural practice in Palestine. Being a source of water and nutrients, long term use of TWW can lead to imbalances that affect plant development, soil, and groundwater quality. Consequently, irrigation frequency and interval should be properly scheduled, especially when Salts and Fertilizers (FS-TWW) cannot be separated from water.

Physically based models may be relevant tools to support an adequate irrigation management with TWW for a simultaneous supply of water and fertilizers assessed pursuant to the effects of TWW on soil properties and water fluxes into and out of the root zone.

The present research was conducted in the framework of Non Conventional WAter Re-use in Agriculture in MEditerranean countries (MENAWARA) ENI CBC Med project, with the aim to propose an alternative TWW irrigation management based on both water requirements and allowable thresholds of soil solution electrical conductivity (ECe), to prevent soil salinity using physically-based Hydrus-1D model.

To this purpose, a case study in Beit Dajan cultivated with citrus and irrigated with TWW was selected to determine the long term effects of TWW on the soil and on root uptake, considering a two-year (2018-2019) simulations and generating two FS-TWW irrigation scenarios: 1) non-optimized salt supply (NONOPT-FS-TWW) where irrigation volumes fully satisfied crop evapotranspiration demand: 2) optimized salt supply (OPT-FS-TWW) accounting for crop evapotranspiration and respecting allowable thresholds of soil solution electrical conductivity (ECe) by assuming an average soil salinity tolerance in the root zone.

Soil water movement, ECe, nitrate and ammonium concentrations were simulated, inputting averaged ten-yearly climate data and soil and water quality data measured at the end of each of the two considered years. The results in terms of soil salinity and root uptake impact are considered to define a proper TWW irrigation management for citrus.

The outputs of the scenario OPT-FS-TWW clearly demonstrate the reduction of soil salinity in the root zone, and of water and nutrient fluxes below 60cm, and thus an improvement of water and nutrient uptake, as compared to NON-OPT-FS-TWW scenario.

The results suggest that aligning the classical irrigation practices to TWW reuse by considering ECe as an additional variable is appropriate, allows to curb soil salinity, and ensures root water uptake of citrus, although TWW has high salinity levels that may jeopardize plant response after a sequence of irrigation events.

How to cite: Dragonetti, G., Isleem, N., and Khadra, R.: Resizing irrigation management for TWW quality with a physically-based model to preserve soil quality: A case study in Beit Dajan-Palestine, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2067, 2021.

EGU21-498 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Flood Based Farming Systems in South-Eastern Africa: Smallholder Farmers’ Choice

Arab Msume, Giulio Castelli, and Faidess Mwale

Agriculture is critical for human welfare and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, especially rainfed agriculture remains vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the region. This has generated increasing interest in practices such as Flood Based Farming Systems (FBFS) which enable turning flood water into an opportunity for crop production for smallholder farmers living in flood plains. Despite this interest, there is limited knowledge about farmers’ preference in terms of choices about a specific FBFS and therefore about which specific FBFS needs improvements for realizing its full benefits. The present study characterizes FBFS in Balaka District, Eastern Malawi, in order to develop a pilot approach for gaining knowledge and insights about farmers’ preferences. Data were collected from a sample of 398 questionnaires, direct observations, focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and they were analyzed through SPSS. Results show that Flood Recession Agriculture (FRA) was predominantly practiced (54%), together with other FBFS such as Depression Agriculture (DA), Spate Irrigation (SI) and Dug Outs (DO). Low capital investment and low level of awareness of farmers were referred to be critical for FRA adoption with (p<0.00003) and (p<0.004) respectively. Therefore, investing on FRA, which has already proven to be used in the area, could be a key to improve food security in the area. 

How to cite: Msume, A., Castelli, G., and Mwale, F.: Flood Based Farming Systems in South-Eastern Africa: Smallholder Farmers’ Choice, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-498, 2021.

EGU21-3033 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

The response of Evapotranspiration to osmotic potential in small-scale lab lysimeters

Adil Salman, Wolfgang Durner, Deep C. Joshi, and Mahyar Naseri

Drought and climatic change are among the main environmental stressors for the water and soil qualities. Soil water potential is the major soil-related factor controlling water availability to plants and their evapotranspiration. It consists of two main components: matric and osmotic potential. Although the effect of matric potential on plant evapotranspiration has been extensively studied under various conditions, there is still a lack of quantitative studies on the effects of osmotic potential on evapotranspiration.

In our study, we investigated the influence of soil osmotic potential on the evapotranspiration rate and cumulative evapotranspiration of grass planted in small laboratory lysimeters. A sandy loam soil material was packed in four lysimeters with a volume of 6000 cm3 and equal bulk density. The soil material was air dried, freed from roots and passed through a 2 mm sieve. Each lysimeter was equipped with soil sensors at two different depths to monitor soil moisture, bulk electrical conductivity, temperature, and matric potential. To obtain continuous mass balance measurements, each lysimeter was placed on a balance connected to the computer. Grass seeds were planted in each lysimeter at the same density and irrigated with distilled water until plant height was 12 cm. Irrigation water of two different qualities (EC= 0 and 4.79 dS/m) was then applied to produce different levels (0 and -0.17 MPa) of osmotic potential. The volumetric water content was adjusted to a value between 15 and 20 % in each lysimeter during the grass growth period. When the volumetric water content reached 15 %, irrigation water was added to the lysimeters to increase it to 20 %. Data were collected to calculate changes in osmotic potential relative to changes in total soil water potential. In addition, the relationship between osmotic potential and evapotranspiration rate during the growing season was determined.

Our results indicate a controlling role of soil osmotic potential on total soil water potential. This role results a significant reductions in evapotranspiration in response to increases in osmotic potential, in addition to effects on plant health. Osmotic potential has a significant function on total soil water potential when the soil becomes dry and poor water qualities are used in irrigation.

How to cite: Salman, A., Durner, W., Joshi, D. C., and Naseri, M.: The response of Evapotranspiration to osmotic potential in small-scale lab lysimeters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3033, 2021.

EGU21-3505 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Hydrogeological characterization and water use of a sector of sands, sandstones and gravel on the coast of Baixo Alentejo

Thyago Anthony Soares Lima, José Paulo Patrício Geraldes Monteiro, and Luis Ricardo Dias da Costa

This reasearch discusses the necessary tasks to carry out the hydrogeological characterization of the sands, sandstones, and gravels of the Baixo Alentejo coast. Currently, this characterization has done in detail only in the areas where these formations constitute hydro-stratigraphic units of the aquifer systems of Sines and the Alvalade Basin. In addition to system hydrogeological characterization of the system, the volume of water used for irrigation in the study area was estimated, with the aim of characterizing its inter-annual evolution between 2000 and 2018 and intra-annual for the year 2018. To do so, remote sensing and satellite image processing methods were used (LANDSAT 5 and 8 and MODIS). A synthesis of the hydrogeological characterization is presented in an area of 195.8 km2, divided into two aquifer sectors, one located north of the Mira River with 94.12 km2 and the other south with 101.75 km2. The first stage of the work consisted of the analysis of the studied aquifers recharge based on precipitation and the analysis of piezometry data in order to define the conceptual model of hydraulic functioning of the system. The available data were obtained from fieldwork and from the LIFE-Charcos Project (LIFE12NAT / PT / 997). In parallel, an analysis of land use and occupation performed, with emphasis on the identification of irrigation areas. Finally, the volume of water used in agriculture irrigation was determined using the method of estimating the consumptive use of water in irrigation at a local scale, based on the determination of evapotranspiration values, using the algorithm SEBAL, precipitation, and  irrigation efficiency. The results obtained were validated, with high precision, through the comparison with the irrigation volumes known during 2018, and the calibration of the monthly sequential water balance model at ground level.

Key words: aquifer system of sands, sandstones and gravels of the Baixo Alentejo coast; hydrogeology; Irrigation; Remote Sensing.

How to cite: Soares Lima, T. A., Geraldes Monteiro, J. P. P., and Dias da Costa, L. R.: Hydrogeological characterization and water use of a sector of sands, sandstones and gravel on the coast of Baixo Alentejo, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3505, 2021.

EGU21-4154 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Deficit irrigation as a sustainable option for improving water productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Ethiopia. A Critical Review 

Desale Asmamaw, Mekete Desse, Seifu Tilahun, Enyew Adgo, Jan Nyssen, Kristine Walraevens, Pieter Janssens, and Wim Cornelis

Water scarcity is a major limiting factor for crop production by irrigation in sub-Saharan countries. Improved irrigation scheduling that can ensure the optimal use of the allocated water and enhance water productivity (WP) is required to address future water scarcity in the region. Maximizing WP by exposing the crop to a certain level of water stress using deficit irrigation (DI) is considered a promising strategy. To adopt DI strategies, a shred of comprehensive evidence concerning DI for different crops is required. This review aims to provide adequate information about the effect of DI on WP. We reviewed 90 research papers from Ethiopia and summarize the effect of DI on WP and yield. It is shown that DI considerably increased WP compared to full irrigation. Despite higher WP, reduced biomass yield was obtained in some of the studied DI practices compared to full irrigation. It was also found that yield reduction may be low compared to the benefits gained by diverting the saved water to irrigate extra arable land. From this review, we understood that growers must recognize specific soil management and crops before applying DI strategies. Maize revealed the highest (2.65 kg m-3) and lowest (0.50 kg m-3) WP when irrigated at only the initial stage compared with being fully irrigated in all growth stages, respectively. Also, onion showed a decreasing WP with increased irrigation water from 60% crop water requirement (ETc) (1.84 kg m-3) to 100% ETc (1.34 kg m-3). Increasing water deficit from 100 to 30% ETc led to an increase of wheat WP by 72.2%. For tomato, the highest WP (7.02 kg m-3) was found at 70% ETc followed by 50% ETc (6.98 kg m-3) and 85% ETc (6.92 kg m-3), while the water application of 100% ETc (or full irrigation) showed the least WP (6.79 kg m-3). Teff showed the lowest WP (1.72 kg m-3) under optimal irrigation, while it was highest (2.96 kg m-3) under 75% ETc throughout the growing season. The regression analysis (R2) for WP increment and yield reduction versus saved water showed higher values, indicating that DI could be an option for WP increment and increasing overall yield by expanding irrigated area and applying the saved water in water-scarce regions. In conclusion, in areas where drought stress is the limiting factor for crop production, the application of DI is feasible.

 

 

 

Keywords: Overall yield increase, water productivity, water saved, yield reduction

How to cite: Asmamaw, D., Desse, M., Tilahun, S., Adgo, E., Nyssen, J., Walraevens, K., Janssens, P., and Cornelis, W.: Deficit irrigation as a sustainable option for improving water productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Ethiopia. A Critical Review , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4154, 2021.

EGU21-4574 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Soil salinity monitoring and detection of obstructed drainage pipes in the B-XII irrigation district (SW Spain) using electromagnetic induction sensing and inversion. 

Mario Ramos, Mohhamad Farzamian, José Luis Gómez, Alfonso González, Benito Salvatierra, Gonzalo Martínez, and Karl Vanderlinden

Inversion of electromagnetic induction (EMI) signals is increasingly used for monitoring soil salinity in irrigated fields. In the B-XII irrigation district (SW Spain) the build-up of high salt concentrations in the topsoil is often related with a deficient performance of the underlying drainage system resulting in higher-than-average soil moisture conditions and salinization. This work aims at using EMI sensing and inversion to identify and localize problems (e.g. obstruction) with the drainage system in a 12.5 ha irrigated field in the B-XII irrigation district. The identified salinity hotspots in the EMI images are further validated using remotely sensed NDVI data and detailed information obtained during the cleaning of the drainage system, in addition to hard soil data. This study shows that EMI sensing and inversion can pinpoint problems with the drainage system that result in salinity hotspots and identify areas where the drainage system should be cleaned or substituted.

 

This work is funded by the Spanish State Agency for Research through grants PID2019-104136RR-C21 and PID2019-104136RR-C22 and by IFAPA/FEDER through grant AVA2019.018.

How to cite: Ramos, M., Farzamian, M., Gómez, J. L., González, A., Salvatierra, B., Martínez, G., and Vanderlinden, K.: Soil salinity monitoring and detection of obstructed drainage pipes in the B-XII irrigation district (SW Spain) using electromagnetic induction sensing and inversion. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4574, 2021.

EGU21-7884 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4 | Highlight

Can Biochar retain water in arid climates?  

Naeema Al Nofeli and Fred Worrall

EGU21-8741 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Assessing the impact of irrigating with saline water on physical properties of a sandy loam soil.

Tinashe Mawodza, Manoj Menon, Masoud Babaei, Genoveva Burca, and Oxana V. Magdysyuk

Soil salinisation is one of the most potent forms of land degradation that affects soils of arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Management of soils with potential for salinisation is key to ensuring the sustainability of marginal soils in predominantly dry regions of the world. In this research, to assess the potential impact of irrigation with saline water on the physical properties of a marginal soil. We subjected a sandy loam soil to flood irrigation with water of variable salinity levels (namely 0, 2,  5 and 10 g/L NaCl) for up to 40 days. After every irrigation cycle, each of the soil samples was subjected hydraulic conductivity measurements for the duration of the experiment. At the end of the 40 day experimental irrigation period, soil cores were non-invasively scanned using X-Ray CT scanning to assess for changes in pore distribution as a result of the different irrigation quality water. Furthermore, measurement of other physio-chemical soil properties such as aggregate stability, EC and pH of each soil were also done to get a more complete idea of the changes that occurred during the experiment. 

How to cite: Mawodza, T., Menon, M., Babaei, M., Burca, G., and Magdysyuk, O. V.: Assessing the impact of irrigating with saline water on physical properties of a sandy loam soil., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8741, 2021.

EGU21-9887 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Assessing traditional irrigation systems in data scarcity conditions, a proposal for a methodological approach.

Vladimiro Boselli, Eleni Maria Michailidi, Jalal Kassout, Mhammad Houssni, Abdeltif El Ouahrani, Matteo Sesana, Massimiliano Borroni, and Simone Cristoforetti

Traditional irrigation systems, apart from being an important cultural heritage element, are considered vital for sustainable water resource management and climate change adaptation measures. However, these traditional forms of irrigation and agriculture, with direct implications in food security at a local scale, have been suffering from abandonment or degradation worldwide. In light of this, the need to fully comprehend the complex linkage of their abandonment with different driving forces is essential. The identification of these dynamics enables the adoption of appropriate interventions with local initiatives and policies on a larger scale.

The present scientific contribution aims at presenting a valid methodology to consistently address the multidisciplinarity and the multifacetedness that emerge in studies relating to traditional irrigation systems.

The methodological approach introduced regards that of system dynamics and is geared to outline a combined framework at the service of stakeholders and policy makers. This approach has been already adopted previously, in different studies to tackle down the complexity stemming from the heterogeneity of drivers in complex water-related and ecosystem modeling problems. Among its advantages there are its ease of implementation in any given scenario and its ability to integrate qualitative and quantitative assessments of multidisciplinary nature that can even be interconnected. Moreover, its applicability in cases affected by data scarcity allows to address issues in those areas of the world which often are more vulnerable, poorer and marginalized and which consequently suffer from a lack of interest in monitoring environmental and social variables, properly.

The abstract is based on Boselli, V., Ouallali, A., Briak, H., Houssni, M., Kassout, J., El Ouahrani, A., & Michailidi, E. M. (2020). System Dynamics Applied to Terraced Agroecosystems: The Case Study of Assaragh (Anti-Atlas Mountains, Morocco). Water, 12(6), 1693. doi.org/10.3390/w12061693

How to cite: Boselli, V., Michailidi, E. M., Kassout, J., Houssni, M., El Ouahrani, A., Sesana, M., Borroni, M., and Cristoforetti, S.: Assessing traditional irrigation systems in data scarcity conditions, a proposal for a methodological approach., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9887, 2021.

EGU21-9972 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Input data automation to model evaporation loss in an Argentinian vineyard using a coupled water, vapor and heat flow model

Arij Chmeis, Johanna Blöcher, and Michal Kuráž

Water resources in arid regions around the world are under a lot of strain due to extremely low precipitation rates and very high evaporation. In addition to water scarcity, irrigation methods can be quite inefficient. For example, over-irrigation beyond soil saturation can cause many problems, such as increase in soil salinity and decrease in productive soil capacity.

This research aims to investigate evaporation losses in a vineyard in San Juan province, Argentina. Trucks are used to deliver irrigation water to the raisin-producing vineyard, which ends up being over-flooded due to poor irrigation schedules, making the process highly costly.
For the estimation of evaporation losses, we use a coupled water, vapor, and heat flow model implemented in DRUtES software, Kuraz and Blöcher (2020). The model’s top boundary condition solves the surface energy balance. For that we need the solar radiation as input, which we compute based on equations suggested in the FAO Irrigation and Drainage guideline No. 56 and by Saito et al. (2006).

Due to the lack of measurement data  on the study site, soil hydraulic and thermal properties are estimated. We neglect the effect of soil organic matter in the water retention model  and assume a homogenous type of soil for the thermodynamic model. While climatic data is available from a nearby meteorological station, access to backdated files is not possible. This limits our choice of simulation period. To solve this issue, we create Python codes that produce automated daily procedures to access the weather servers. This transcribed data record is then used as input for DRUtES configuration files. We also establish communication with sensors installed in the soil using Python-script automation, in order to rectify missing measurements and use them as the model’s initial conditions.

The result is output records that simulate pressure heads and water content distribution across the flow field over the simulated period. We present a system that describes the flow field allowing us to calculate evaporation rate changes with time, thereby optimizing the irrigation process according to soil and plant needs. This can be a helpful decision-making tool for farmers.

How to cite: Chmeis, A., Blöcher, J., and Kuráž, M.: Input data automation to model evaporation loss in an Argentinian vineyard using a coupled water, vapor and heat flow model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9972, 2021.

EGU21-10369 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

The MEDWATERICE project: Towards a sustainable water use in Mediterranean rice-based agro-ecosystems

Arianna Facchi and the MEDWATERICE Team

In the Mediterranean basin, rice is cultivated over an area of 1,300,000 hectares. The most important rice-producing countries are Italy and Spain in Europe (72% of the EU production; 345,000 ha), and Egypt and Turkey among the extra-EU countries (almost totality of the production; 789,000 ha). Traditionally, rice is grown under continuous flooding; thus, it requires more water than non-ponded crops. On the other hand, rice is strategic for food security in some countries such as Egypt, and human consumption in the whole Mediterranean is steadily increasing.

The MEDWATERICE project (PRIMA-Section 2-2018; https://www.medwaterice.org/), which started in April 2019, aims to explore the sustainability of innovative rice irrigation methods and technologies in the Mediterranean basin, in order to reduce rice water use and environmental impacts, and to extend rice cultivation outside of traditional paddy areas to meet the growing demand. The MEDWATERICE consortium includes universities, research centres and private companies operating in the Mediterranean area (IT, ES, PT, EG, TR, IL). Case studies (CSs) are implemented in pilot farms of the countries involved in the project. Tested alternative irrigation methods and technologies adopted in each CS are being tailored to local conditions using a participatory action research approach through the establishment of Stake-Holder Panels in each country, which include regional authorities, water managers, farmers’ associations and consultants, and private companies of the rice production chain. Irrigation strategies experimented in the pilot farms and compared to the continuous flooding (considered as the ‘reference’ irrigation method in all CSs), are: dry seeding and delayed flooding, alternate wetting and drying, lengthening of drying periods, reduction in irrigation inflow/outflow, hybrid irrigation, multi-nozzle sprinkler irrigation, surface and sub-surface drip irrigation, and waste-water reuse through sub-surface drip irrigation. For each irrigation solution, innovative technologies and the most appropriate rice varieties and agronomic practices are tested to minimize impacts of irrigation water reduction on yield quantity and quality. Data collected at the farm level are extrapolated to the irrigation district level to support water management decisions and policies. Indicators for quantitative assessment of environmental, economic and social sustainability of the irrigation options are also being defined. Outcomes produced by MEDWATERICE are expected to generate knowledge on how to improve sustainability of rice production in the countries of the Mediterranean area, with particular attention to the adoption of water-saving techniques.

During the conference, approaches and methodologies adopted and developed within the project, and results obtained so far will be presented, with particular attention to the experimentation conducted in the pilot farms, to the methods for the upscaling the achievements to the irrigation district scale, and to the set of indicators for quantifying economic, environmental and social sustainability of irrigation methods and technologies currently under definition.

How to cite: Facchi, A. and the MEDWATERICE Team: The MEDWATERICE project: Towards a sustainable water use in Mediterranean rice-based agro-ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10369, 2021.

EGU21-10692 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4 | Highlight

Effect of desalinized water derived treated wastewater on soil structure stability and hydraulic properties 

Robert Neufeld and Gilboa Arye

Irrigation with treated wastewater (TWW) has become a common practice in Israel and is accepted as an environmentally responsible way of managing water resources. Although negative effects of high sodium (Na+) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have been reported, many fields have been irrigated with TWW for more than three decades. It is therefore assumed that chemical equilibrium has been reached. In recent years, however, desalination has become the main water source for urban and industrial use. Thus, the salinity of TWW is expected to decrease and the relative concentration of Na+ to calcium (Ca+2) and magnesium (Mg+2), quantified by the Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR), may increase. The effects of this new TWW quality need to be understood in order to mitigate potential damage to irrigated soils structure and hydraulic characteristics. The main objective of this study was to quantify the effects of desalinized water derived TWW with different levels of salinity, SAR and DOC on soil structural and hydraulic properties. The results demonstrated that irrigation with TWW derived from desalination is more detrimental for the soil hydraulic and structural properties when compared to TWW derived from freshwater sources. Particularly, the combination of lower salinity and higher SAR in desalination derived TWW results in a depth dependent increase of exchangeable sodium. Consequently, clay dispersion and pore clogging occurred, thus reducing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the examined soils. Further results will be presented and the implications for long-term sustainable irrigation will be discussed. 

How to cite: Neufeld, R. and Arye, G.: Effect of desalinized water derived treated wastewater on soil structure stability and hydraulic properties , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10692, 2021.

EGU21-15203 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Solute movement through undisturbed calcareous and dry region soils under differing water flow velocities 

Selen Deviren Saygin, Hasan Sabri Ozturk, Ezgi Izci, Manoj Menon, Sina Maghami Nick, Gunay Erpul, Tinashe Mawodza, and Nadim Copty

The use of low-quality irrigation water in arid regions ensures the reconstruction of diverse physical and chemical dynamics in the soil profile. The objective of this study was to examine the efficacy of two water flow velocities of tap and sodic water for characterizing ion exchange of colloidal particles. Undisturbed samples were taken into the plexiglas columns with 40 cm in height and 6.9 cm in diameter from the dry area of Konya, Turkey. Two different water sources with varying qualities, tap water and poor quality sodic water (ESP≈20, obtained by preparing solution from analytically pure NaHCO3), were applied to the top of the columns as leaching water in two water flow velocities; close to saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) (fast, saturated condition) and unsaturated condition (slow). The number of the columns with duplicated experiments was 8. In each leaching, a quarter pore volume (350 ml) of water was regularly applied and leachates were collected from the outlet of columns. The water flux in the soil column decreased faster in the fast leaching application than in slow leaching as the sodic irrigation water was applied. This shows to destructive effect of Na+ on inner surface of water flow channels in the soil. Gradual increases for the pH of the leachates in both water quality and velocity experiments were detected. The EC of the leachates dropped very fast at the beginning of leaching in both water quality applications, and then, became steady. No effect of tap water treatment on Ca+2 contents of the leachates was observed. However, sharp decreases in Ca+2 concentration were detected at the beginning of sodic water application, and then remained constant. All sodic water applications caused an increase in Na+ concentration of leachates till the end of treatments. In slow leaching applications, the increase in Na concentration in the leachates was slower compared to those of the fast leaching. While Ca+2 concentrations in the leachates remained constant with tap water applications, although the soils are calcareous. Ca+2 was transported remarkable high at the beginning of the sodic water application. As the leaching progressed, transport of Ca+2 from the soil continued constantly due to the Na-Ca exchange processes. The effects of different leaching treatments were clearly observed from the pH-EC, Ca+2 and Na+transports. Consequently, sodic water application caused significant changes in the pH values of the soils with the effect of time, and this effect was expressively marked from the changes in the salt and sodium contents of the soils.

Keywords: flux, ion exchange, leaching, saturated and unsaturated leaching, solute transport, water flow velocity

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey [Project number: TUBİTAK-118Y343].

How to cite: Deviren Saygin, S., Ozturk, H. S., Izci, E., Menon, M., Maghami Nick, S., Erpul, G., Mawodza, T., and Copty, N.: Solute movement through undisturbed calcareous and dry region soils under differing water flow velocities , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15203, 2021.

EGU21-15370 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

Impact of irrigation and soil compaction on salinization of soils in semiarid agricultural lands

Sina Maghami Nick, Seyedmehdi Emadian, Selen Deviren Saygın, Muhittin Onur Akça, Burak Demirel, Hasan Sabri Öztürk, Majid Sedighi, Masoud Babaei, and Nadim K. Copty

The use of saline groundwater for irrigation can lead to significant salt accumulation in agricultural soils. This in turn can lead to a decrease in crop yields threatening food security. This study examines the impact of irrigation pattern and soil compaction on the salt dynamics in soils. Laboratory-scale column experiments were conducted for different irrigation patterns, water quality and soil compaction conditions. Two water qualities were applied: fresh (DI water) and saline (~3.4 mS/cm). The soil columns (having 60 cm height and 16 cm diameter) were packed with agricultural soil samples from a 10-year non-tilled profile of an apple farm located in the plain of Konya, Turkey. The experiments were numerically modelled with the Hydrus-1D computer program which can simulate water and solute movement in unsaturated soils. Results show that the fate and transport of salts in the topsoil is governed by capillary action, evaporation, sub-surface soil compaction and soil moisture retention characteristics. Overall, it is demonstrated that properly managed irrigation schemes and tillage practices can help alleviate the problem of soil salinization. Farmer strategies to minimize the significance of salinity of agricultural soils are discussed.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey [Project number: TUBİTAK-118Y343].

How to cite: Maghami Nick, S., Emadian, S., Deviren Saygın, S., Akça, M. O., Demirel, B., Sabri Öztürk, H., Sedighi, M., Babaei, M., and K. Copty, N.: Impact of irrigation and soil compaction on salinization of soils in semiarid agricultural lands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15370, 2021.

EGU21-12936 | vPICO presentations | HS8.3.4

A GIS based application of Benfratello's method to estimate the irrigation deficit in a semiarid climate

Stefano Barontini, Cesare Rapuzzi, Marco Peli, and Roberto Ranzi

Benfratello's Contribution to the study of the water balance of an agricultural soil (Contributo allo studio del bilancio idrologico del terreno agrario) was firstly published sixty years ago, in 1961. The paper provides a practical conceptual and lumped method to determine the irrigation deficit in agricultural disctricts. Since then, it has been used in many areas in Southern Italy.

According to the method, percolation and capillary rise from the groundwater table are absent, and surface runoff happens only when the soil capability of storing water is exceeded. The method is therefore suitable for semiarid (and eventually arid) climates. Dry and wet seasons are defined on a climatic basis, as the season during which potential evapotranspiration is greater than precipitations (and the stored soil--water decreases), and that during which precipitations exceed potential evapotranspiration (and the stored soil--water inccreases).

With these hypotheses, Benfratello proposed to adopt a power--relationship (with power m greater or equal to 0) to assess the ratio between the actual and the potential soil--water loss, as a function of the ratio between the stored soil--water and the maximum available storage. The solution provides, in a simple closed form, the actual soil--water loss as a function of the potential loss (which is a climatic characteristic), and generalizes previous approaches, viz Thorthwaite (1948) and Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) ones, for which m = 0 and m = 1, respectively.

In this contribution we present a GIS based application of Benfratello's method to assess the soil water balance and the irrigation deficit of the semiarid Capitanata plane (4550 km2, Southern Italy), one of the most important agricultural districts in Italy. A comparison between the method and previous results for the same region will be provided as well. Due to its simplicity and to the small number of needed parameters, Benfratello's method might be regarded to as an effective tool to assess the effects of climatic, landuse and anthropogenic change scenarios on the soil water balance and on the irrigation deficit.

How to cite: Barontini, S., Rapuzzi, C., Peli, M., and Ranzi, R.: A GIS based application of Benfratello's method to estimate the irrigation deficit in a semiarid climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12936, 2021.

HS9.1 – Techniques for quantifying the sources and the dynamics of sediment in river catchments across a range of spatial and temporal scales

EGU21-4571 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

From field to stream: Tracing streambed organic carbon origins at a catchment scale

Katy Wiltshire, Miriam Glendell, Toby Waine, Robert Grabowski, Barry Thornton, and Jeroen Meersmans

Quantifying organic carbon (OC) levels and the processes altering them is key in unlocking soils potential as a mediator of climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO2. In areas of high soil erosion increased fluxes of OC across the terrestrial-aquatic interface are likely and understanding these fluxes is crucial in integrating lateral OC fluxes within the carbon cycle. For this study of a small UK catchment, OC mapping and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) based erosion modelling provided estimates of proportional soil OC loss coming from each land use. Sediment fingerprinting using n-alkane biomarkers and a Bayesian unmixing model provided a comparison of streambed OC proportions by land use to assess which processes were dominating OC input to streams. Results showed that RUSLE-based soil OC loss proportions exhibited disconnect with sediment fingerprinting OC composition and the river corridor and riparian environment were key zones in regulating terrestrial to aquatic fluxes of OC.

How to cite: Wiltshire, K., Glendell, M., Waine, T., Grabowski, R., Thornton, B., and Meersmans, J.: From field to stream: Tracing streambed organic carbon origins at a catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4571, 2021.

EGU21-8601 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

High-frequency absorbance measurements for sediment source apportionment – laboratory and field assessment

Niels Lake, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Peter Shaw, and Adrian Collins

To manage effectively excessive sediment inputs to rivers and streams, it is crucial to have detailed and reliable information on key sediment sources. Such evidence is important for implementing targeted measures for improving ecosystem functioning and meeting environmental objectives. Although sediment fingerprinting is increasingly adopted worldwide to provide such evidence, current procedures do not provide detailed information on how sediment sources can change over both short (e.g., events and in between events) and long (e.g., over seasons or years) time scales. These limitations are mainly due to the conventional methods used for target sediment sampling and the high workloads and costs associated with laboratory analyses for tracers, which limit both high-frequency and longer duration sampling campaigns. To address this issue, we propose the use of a submersible spectrophotometer, which measures absorbance in the UV-VIS range in situ and at high frequency (e.g., minutes) to trace suspended sediment sources. In our proof of concept investigation, the approach was first tested in a laboratory setting, using soil samples and artificial mixtures with known proportions of two, three and four soil source samples in an experimental water tank. A total of six soil samples were collected, which were sieved to different fractions to investigate the influence of particle size on the sensor absorbance readings. Both soil samples and artificial mixtures were suspended in the laboratory tank set-up at different concentrations to investigate the effects on: (i) absorbance, and; (ii) un-mixing accuracy. The results showed that absorbance was linearly additive and could be used to predict dominant samples in the artificial mixtures correctly using a Bayesian tracer un-mixing model, largely regardless of particle size and of the concentration inside the experimental tank. This approach is currently being tested in a field experiment in the Attert River Basin (Luxembourg) to investigate if the results found in the laboratory experiments hold under natural field conditions. Our preliminary insights into the use of absorbance for sediment source apportionment in the field will be presented.

How to cite: Lake, N., Martínez-Carreras, N., Shaw, P., and Collins, A.: High-frequency absorbance measurements for sediment source apportionment – laboratory and field assessment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8601, 2021.

EGU21-15156 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Suitability of phytoliths as a quantitative process tracer for soil erosion studies

Sabine Kraushaar, Matthias Konzett, Janika Kiep, Christian Siebert, and Julia Meister

Phytoliths are a plant microfossil commonly used as qualitative archive markers in archaeological and paleoecological studies. Their potential uniqueness to the vegetation cover, robustness to weathering, and lack of chemical alteration along the paths make them a potentially suitable tracer for quantitative erosion studies.
In this pilot study, we explore the potential of phytoliths in a sediment fingerprinting study in the Ceguera catchment (28 km2) in NE Spain. The phytolith concentrations and morphologies of four land cover classes (agricultural land, badland, forest, and shrubland) were analyzed, and their contributions to four sediment mixture samples along the river course were modelled. Phytoliths concentrations allowed us to discriminate sources sufficiently, albeit with limited sample size. The performance of the phytoliths as the tracer was tested by reproducing the sources of artificial sediment mixture samples with satisfactory recall ratio. Results identified badlands to be the main contributor, with 84–96% of the sediment load to the sinks, followed by shrublands (median 5%) and agricultural lands (median 2%). Additionally, an intensively used agricultural area in the SW of the catchment was well indicated. These major findings can be reproduced by other conventional erosion studies from this area, indicating that phytoliths are suited to quantifying erosion patterns in mesoscale catchments.

How to cite: Kraushaar, S., Konzett, M., Kiep, J., Siebert, C., and Meister, J.: Suitability of phytoliths as a quantitative process tracer for soil erosion studies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15156, 2021.

EGU21-12370 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Spatial dynamics of soil erosion impacts on food, water and energy security in a large Andean river basin, Chile

Will Blake, Enrique Munoz-Arcos, Luis Ovando-Fuentealba, Jessica Kitch, Claire Kelly, Alfredo Del Valle, and Claudio Bravo-Linares

The Rapel Basin (ca 14,000 km2), Chile, provides a wide range of ecosystem services from mining activities and water supply from its Central Andean headwaters to mixed agricultural food production and hydropower generation in the Central Valley. The breadth of ecosystem service provision, range of land use and wider anthropogenic pressures makes the Rapel system an ideal natural laboratory in which to evaluate tools to support soil erosion mitigation in the context of enhancing food, water and energy security.

Taking a distributed approach to encompass geological variability plus superimposed land management and natural process variability, replicate tributary sediment samples (n = 10± per tributary, total number of sediment samples= 313) were collected from across the system to characterise sediment inputs from the major potential sediment sources : (a) natural sediment production in steep Andean headwaters driven by (i) glacial retreat and (ii) seasonal snow melt, (b) sediment inputs from major copper mining operations in the Andes, (d) soil erosion on agricultural land in the Central valley basin area and (e) soil erosion on agricultural land in the Coastal Mountain Belt bordering the hydropower reservoir, Lake Rapel. Samples of river bed sediment from two main sub-catchments (north: Cachapoal River, South: Tinguiririca River) were collected at the outlet to the upper Andean catchment, below the central valley agricultural zone and downstream of a major tributary confluence above the reservoir. In addition, 12 surficial sediment samples were collected from the main arm of the reservoir. All materials were analysed for major and minor element geochemistry by Wave-length Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (44 elements).

Mixtures were compared in terms of their source material groups in a series of nested MixSIAR mixing model runs after selection of appropriate tracer groups following established procedures. In the northern tributary to the reservoir, mining effluent dominated the sediment supply in upper reaches (78%) with the reminder from natural landscape denudation plus a small proportion of glacial-derived sediments (5%). The influence of the mine was diluted by significant inputs of sediment from agricultural sources (fruit orchards and grain production) in the central basin (agriculture 53%, mining 25%) but given the scale of the system, mining remained a major contributor to the reservoir sediment column, with high Cu concentrations (ca 450 mg kg-1) observed in reservoir sediment. In the southern tributary, in the absence of mining, natural erosion upstream was dominated by snow melt processes (70%) compared to glacial melt (30%). In the lower reaches downstream of agricultural land, agricultural inputs dominated (53%) with natural erosion in mountain headwaters still contributing (45% overall). Evaluation of reservoir sediment against main geological, natural and anthropogenic tributary-based classification demonstrated significant inputs of sediment from Coastal Mountain agriculture (41%) where steep hillslopes are being actively converted from natural vegetation to plantations (olives, avocados etc). Moreover, sediment contribution coming from mining activities were still considerable (31%).

Future land-management decisions require quantification of soil erosion  hotspots for targeted mitigation measures. Natural science results are discussed in the context of parallel participatory approaches to developing stakeholder consensus on future actions.

How to cite: Blake, W., Munoz-Arcos, E., Ovando-Fuentealba, L., Kitch, J., Kelly, C., Del Valle, A., and Bravo-Linares, C.: Spatial dynamics of soil erosion impacts on food, water and energy security in a large Andean river basin, Chile, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12370, 2021.

EGU21-6466 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Evaluation of soil erosion and sediment sources in two contrasting sub-basins, using fingerprinting and 137Cs techniques in Uruguay. Preliminary results.

Marcos Tassano, Romina Sanabria, Joan Gonzalez, Pablo Cabral, Samuel Tejeda, Eva Melgar, Graciela Zarazua, and Mirel Cabrera

The study site consists of two sub-basins (“Arbolito”, 20.94 km2; and “Horno”, 10.44 km2) divided by the Rolon stream, which in turn flows into the Baygorria hydroelectric dam reservoir (-32.77152 S; -56.84093 W). The "Arbolito" sub-basin consists of natural pasture with extensive cattle from the 19th century to the present day.  Soils are predominantly eutric brunosols and clayey haplic vertisols with slopes > 6% (MGAP, Uruguay). The “Horno” sub-basin consists of intensive agriculture since the mid-1980s, with a history of rice, wheat, oat, soybean and pastureland rotations. At the beginning of the 2000s, direct sowing began in this region of the country. Soils in Horno are predominantly clayey, deep Haplic Vertisols and Typical Eurethric Brunosols, clayey silt, vertically and moderately deep, with slopes ≤ 6 % (MGAP, Uruguay). Both soil types and their formation are associated with basaltic lithologies. A total of 50 surface samples from natural pastures, cropland and channel banks were used as sources to describe the mixture of sediments (fine-bed material) using geochemical elements and the FingerPro mixing model. For the 137Cs technique, a total of 120 surface samples were taken, multi-transect sampling was conducted in both sub-basins, and reference sites were established. Profile Distribution Model (PDM) and Diffusion Model (DM) were used as conversion model for the Arbolito sub-basin, while Mass Balance Model II (MBM II) was used for Horno sub-basin. MODERN model was used in both areas. Sediment fingerprinting results showed that the proportion of sediment sources is divided as follows: cropland (up to 70%), pastures (up to 25%) and channel banks (the remaining 5%). The reference value of 137Cs found was 369.0 bq.m-2 (SD 7.4 bq.m-2) on 01/01/2020 calibration date. The results of the net soil redistribution rates using different conversion models of 137Cs were consistent with each other, and showed erosion in both sub-basins, Arbolito: PDM (-0.72 Mg ha-1 yr-1), DM (-0.29 Mg ha-1 yr-1), MODERN (-0.69 Mg ha-1 yr-1); Horno: MBM II (-0.5 Mg ha-1 yr-1), MODERN (-0.56 Mg ha-1 yr-1). Although the net erosion rate in both sub-basins is similar, the redistribution of soil within each sub-basin is different. While the Arbolito shows on average preserved areas at the top of the slopes (MODERN 1.7 Mg ha-1 yr-1), with high erosion in the middle (MODERN -5.7 Mg ha-1 yr-1) and low erosion in lower areas (MODERN -0.47 Mg ha-1 yr-1); Horno sub-basin shows in average eroded areas at the top of the slopes (MODERN -4.3 Mg ha-1 yr-1) with low sedimentation in the middle (MODERN 0.4 Mg ha-1 yr-1) and high sedimentation in the lower areas (MODERN 2.21 Mg ha-1 yr-1). This would explain a greater redistribution of the soil from the high to the low areas in the Horno sub-basin compared to Arbolito, probably due to the mechanical movement of the soil by agriculture practice. These results may explain a greater export of soils in Horno compared to Arbolito, which agrees with cropland as the most important source of sediments (up to 70%) by fingerprinting techniques.

How to cite: Tassano, M., Sanabria, R., Gonzalez, J., Cabral, P., Tejeda, S., Melgar, E., Zarazua, G., and Cabrera, M.: Evaluation of soil erosion and sediment sources in two contrasting sub-basins, using fingerprinting and 137Cs techniques in Uruguay. Preliminary results., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6466, 2021.

EGU21-12917 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Erosion modeling and tracing sediment sources at Guarda Mor catchment in southern Brazil

Alice Dambroz, Jean Minella, Tales Tiecher, Jean Moura-Bueno, Felipe Bernardi, Fabio Schneider, and Olivier Evrard

Although sediment yield reflects a catchment’s erosive processes, material transfer from hillslopes to rivers depends on a series of phenomena occurring on variable and continuous range of scales. Physically based, distributed models can be used to evaluate erosion’s spatial variability within a catchment and to identify hotspots. Sediment fingerprinting allows source type discrimination based on sediment and soil properties. The analysis of these dynamic systems could be coupled by addressing hillslope processes with modeling, while fingerprinting enlightens the connection between them and the drainage network. We aimed to evaluate the erosive susceptibility and its spatial distribution in three environmentally fragile paired headwater catchments, nested within Guarda Mor catchment, located in the border of the volcanic plateau in southern Brazil. This catchment is characterized by intense agricultural use, diverse geology, and complex terrain. WATERSED model was used as a dynamic method to evaluate the spatial distribution of hydrologic and erosive fragility during rainfall events. WATERSED was parameterized for modeling surface runoff volume, sediment yield and interrill erosion, based on monitored data from a zero-order no-till catchment and literature data. Modeling results were analyzed for each land use. For fingerprinting, two sediment sampling strategies and source groupings were considered. One considered spatial sources, and the endmembers were the sub catchments, the other considered land use source types within each sub catchment. Deposited bed sediment samples were collected at the outlets of each sub catchment and the main outlet. Soil source samples were collected in crop fields, grasslands, stream channels, forests, and unpaved roads. Crop fields and grasslands compose the source type topsoil. Samples were analyzed by near-infrared spectroscopy. Artificial mixtures were made to calibrate the prediction models. Fifteen Support Vector Machine (SVM) models were built and independently trained. Modeled erosion indicates that the steepest areas and those near the drainage network can be the most susceptible to erosion and runoff. The spatial distribution of runoff-prone areas shows the connectivity from upper segments of these catchments increases with higher magnitude events. In fingerprinting, calibration results’ predictors show good performance by the models, validation results vary from poor to good. SVM models for unpaved roads and forest had the best validation performance. For sourcing tributaries, results and poor validation statistical results indicate the need to use different tracers, and to consider unsampled sources associated to soil and geological differences found downstream from the sub catchment’s outlets. As for the sub catchments, there is a variation among the main sediment sources and a significantly constant contribution from unpaved roads in all of them. Other important sources are topsoil and stream channels, while forests did not show significant contribution. These methodologies were useful in seeking a more holistic process understanding, as physical processes were addressed and later integrated with the resulting sediment yield. Despite the results are modelled, the complementation of their insights indicates that there is a possibility for validating the sediment fingerprinting technique once modelling is validated by monitored and measured data.

How to cite: Dambroz, A., Minella, J., Tiecher, T., Moura-Bueno, J., Bernardi, F., Schneider, F., and Evrard, O.: Erosion modeling and tracing sediment sources at Guarda Mor catchment in southern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12917, 2021.

EGU21-8487 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Assessing the contribution of natural and anthropogenic processes on sediment dynamics in the Rio Santa (Peru) through sediment fingerprinting

Jessica Kitch, Caroline Clason, Sally Rangecroft, Sergio Morera, and Will Blake

The combination of a changing climate and growing population poses a contemporary challenge for the water-food-energy security nexus in mountain regions, especially in glacier-fed catchments such as the Rio Santa in the Peruvian Andes. Soil erosion due to both natural processes and anthropogenic activities can exacerbate this challenge, with increased levels of sediment in river systems endangering crucial river functions, such as crop irrigation, drinking water, and hydroelectricity. Furthermore, sediment can act as a transport pathway for contaminants, in addition to being a source of contamination itself. Previous studies have suggested that soil erosion related to human activity vastly exceeds the rate of natural soil production in many Andean catchments, where research to date has primarily focused on larger eastern catchments. Smaller western catchments, however, are important for many major Andean cities reliant upon upstream water supplies. It is thus, important to identify sediment sources and better understand sediment dynamics to manage the threats to water supply.

Sediment fingerprinting approaches are one technique that can contribute to improved understanding of sediment sources and dynamics and the impact of soil erosion in a catchment, and thus contribute to water resource management at the catchment level. Taking a distributed approach along the Rio Santa, this study aims to improve understanding of natural and anthropogenic contributions to sediment production in this Andean system. Key sediment sources explored are glacial sediment potentially enhanced by retreat, agricultural land, forestry operations, land under natural vegetation, and mining. The distributed approach permits quantification of their dynamics throughout the catchment. All source and mixture samples were analysed using Wavelength Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (WD XRF) to develop geochemical fingerprints and the MixSIAR mixing model was used to apportion sediment sources. While sediment sampling presents a number of challenges when working in remote, mountainous regions such as the Rio Santa catchment, sediment fingerprinting has the potential to help reduce environmental degradation when used to guide local resource management decisions.

How to cite: Kitch, J., Clason, C., Rangecroft, S., Morera, S., and Blake, W.: Assessing the contribution of natural and anthropogenic processes on sediment dynamics in the Rio Santa (Peru) through sediment fingerprinting, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8487, 2021.

EGU21-7811 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Geochemical fingerprints for tracing sediments in the sub-catchment Durazno del Medio, Argentina 

Yanina Garcias, Romina Torres Astorga, Gisela Borgatello, Samuel Tejeda-Vega, Sergio de los Santos-Villalobos, and Hugo Velasco

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems caused by land-use changes in semi-arid regions of central Argentina. Hence, to understand the erosive dynamics in these regions becomes fundamental. 

Sub-catchment Durazno del Medio (6.56 km2) is located 21 km northeast of San Luis City (S 33º 08’ 16” – W 66º 09’ 18”; S 33º 11’ 44” – W 66º 08’ 06”), in the central region of Argentina. The average annual temperature is 17 ºC. Annual rainfall ranges from 600 to 800 mm, with a tendency to increase in the last years. Rainfall varies seasonally, with a dry season from May to October and a rainy season from November to April. This agricultural catchment has been researched to identify critical hot spots of land degradation by applying sediment source fingerprinting techniques. 

In the studied area, exotic tree plantations in protected areas (in a state of youth development), native woodland, roads (dirt and paved), agricultural fields, and channel banks were identified as sources of sediments. Most of the sources were found on quaternary deposits (loessoid deposits), except native forests and some roads, which were found in gneiss and migmatites. The sub-catchment has a drainage network formed by two water courses that converge into the main one. Channel sediments (mixtures) were collected at the end of the main channel.

The energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) analytical technique and the MixSIAR unmixing model were implemented to estimate the contribution of sediment sources in mixtures. The sources and mixtures (tablets) were analyzed in triplicate using a Si-Li detector SDD (resolution 145 keV, Kalpha Mn) with a X ray tube of 50 W and 50 kV. The tracers were analyzed using a fundamental parameters method. Since the selection of correct fingerprints has been proven to be an essential stage in the analysis, before unmixing the natural sediment samples, two artificial mixtures were made using known quantities of soil collected in the identified sources to test the precision and robustness of the tracers selection procedure. These analyses showed that the use of most of the tracers (25 elements) increases the exactitude of calculated proportions. The first mixture was made using two sources, exotic tree plantation in protected areas (35.6 %) and agricultural fields (64.4 %). The second mixture was created using different proportions of 4 different sources including native woodland (30 %), exotic tree plantation in protected areas (20 %), agricultural fields (5 %) and channel banks (45 %). A low mean absolute error (MAE) of 2 % and 4 %, respectively, was obtained when reconstructing the 2 artificial mixtures. This outcome indicates that the selection process was effective.

Once the tracers were properly selected, the natural sediment samples were analyzed. Hence, for the catchment mixture, the main sources of sediments were exotic tree plantation in protected areas (96.7 %) and roads (1.8 %). The application of the fingerprint technique highlighted that forests are one of the largest contributors of sediment, followed by dirt roads.

How to cite: Garcias, Y., Torres Astorga, R., Borgatello, G., Tejeda-Vega, S., de los Santos-Villalobos, S., and Velasco, H.: Geochemical fingerprints for tracing sediments in the sub-catchment Durazno del Medio, Argentina , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7811, 2021.

The Nechako River Basin (NRB) in central British Columbia is a large (52,000 km2), regulated basin that supports populations of sockeye and chinook salmon and the endangered Nechako white sturgeon. These important species are experiencing population declines and one potential cause of this decline is excess sediment, which can clog their spawning habitat and reduce juvenile success. This excess sediment is likely the product of a combination of factors, the most visible being the significant land cover changes that have occurred in the basin, which includes pressure from forestry and agriculture, the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic, and large-scale wildfires in 2018. Focusing specifically on the impact of the 2018 wildfires on sediment transport from upland burned areas to adjacent waterways, this research aimed to determine the spatial and temporal contamination of tributaries and the mainstem of the Nechako River with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are produced during the combustion of organic matter and have been identified as toxic to aquatic organisms and to humans. Additionally, this study intended to determine if burned areas were a more significant contributor of sediment than unburned areas and better understand the utility of PAHs as a potential tracer. Source soil samples were collected in 2018 and 2020 from burned and unburned sites, and suspended sediment samples were collected throughout the ice-free period from 2018-2020 in three tributaries and three mainstem sites. All samples were analysed for PAHs, magnetic susceptibility, colour, and particle size. Results from the fall 2018 source samples show a significant difference in PAH concentrations between unburned and burned soils, and while concentrations of PAHs in source soils in 2020 were lower than in 2018, they were still elevated compared to unburned soils. Sediment samples showed that concentrations of total PAHs are higher in the mainstem sites than in the tributaries, with the greatest concentrations consistently found at the most downstream site on the mainstem of the Nechako River. Concentrations across sites were highest in samples taken during the spring snowmelt period in 2019, have decreased throughout the rest of the sampling period (2019-2020), and are well below sediment quality guidelines for total PAHs. In addition to determining the spatial and temporal extent of PAH contamination, this study also aims to use PAHs along with colour and measurements of magnetic susceptibility to trace sediments associated with the 2018 wildfires. The high cost of PAH analysis limits the number of samples that can be analysed and thus, these additional tracers will allow for the use of models such as MixSIAR that improve with a more robust number of samples. As large-scale megafires continue to burn across the globe, understanding their potential to contribute PAHs to local waterbodies and potentially be used as a tracer is as prescient as ever.

How to cite: Kieta, K., Owens, P., and Petticrew, E.: Using polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to determine post-wildfire contamination and sediment sources in a large watershed in central British Columbia, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10491, 2021.

EGU21-2210 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Hydrological variability and suspended particulate matter in the middle river Niger bassin

Moussa Boubacar Moussa, Amadou Abdourhamane Touré, Bruno Lartiges, Emma Rochelle Newall, Laurent Kergoat, Elodie Robert, Marielle Gosset, Bachir Alkali Tanimoun, and Manuela Grippa

In the Sahel, climate variability and high population growth have led to changes in surface conditions that resulted in increased runoff coefficients and discharge in the major Sahelian rivers. The mid reaches of the Niger river have experienced significant increases in the Red flood, or local flood, that occurs during the rainy season between June and September, relative to Black flood, or Guinean flood that arrives in Niamey from December onwards.
The objective of this work was to characterize suspended particulate matter (SPM) during the Red and Black floods in the Niamey area and analyse their spatio-temporal dynamics. Two approaches are used : the first one consists of regular in-situ measurements of SPM concentration and in their physical and mineral characterization by electron microscopy; the second is based on monitoring water color by both in-situ and satellite (Sentinel 2) radiometric measurements.
SPM are characterized by very fine particles (with a major mode around 0.1-0.2 micrometers) mainly composed by kaolinites (iron oxides are also observed during the Red flood). This, combined with the very high levels of SPM concentration reached during the rainy season, results in very high values of reflectance in the visible end infrared bands. Radiometric measurements in the nir band by both the in-situ SKYE sensor and the Sentinel2 sensor are found to be significantly correlated to in-situ SPM, allowing efficient monitoring of SPM concentration in time and space.
SPM-discharge curves, reveal a complex relationship : SPM increases very rapidly at the beginning of the rainy season when soils are washed out after the long dry period, reaching a peak before the first discharge peak (Red flood). SPM continues to decrease during the second discharge peak (Black flood) from December to February, providing a distinct and unique signature. Analysis of satellite data allowed identifying the main sources of SPM and to quantify the significant contribution of the right bank river tributaries to sediments in the middle Niger river bassin. This contribution may further increase in the context of global changes (climate and anthropogenic) with important consequences on sediment transport but also on water quality and bacterial concentration which are strongly influenced by high SPM.

How to cite: Boubacar Moussa, M., Abdourhamane Touré, A., Lartiges, B., Rochelle Newall, E., Kergoat, L., Robert, E., Gosset, M., Alkali Tanimoun, B., and Grippa, M.: Hydrological variability and suspended particulate matter in the middle river Niger bassin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2210, 2021.

EGU21-14891 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Influence of the decontamination work on suspended sediment dynamics and 137Cs migration after the Fukushima nuclear accident

Bin Feng, Yuichi Onda, Yuki Yamanaka, and Keisuke Taniguchi

The FDNPP-derived 137Cs triggers significant concern due to its potential health risk and on-going environmental pollution. Approximately 27% of 137Cs are deposited in the terrestrial environment, and most of them remain in catchment until now. This severe radioactive contamination situation has driven government-led decontamination efforts to be implemented since 2012. Earlier studies reveal the influence of decontamination on local soil erosion, thereby changing the fluvial sediment supply and 137Cs concentration. However, the dynamic transport process of suspended sediments (SS) and particulate 137Cs remains unknown and the resulting variation of particulate 137Cs fluxes into the ocean hasn’t been totally evaluated because of the unavailable decontamination relevant materials and long-term monitoring data. Moreover, the shortcomings in the present SS load estimation method limited the possibility for further qualifying the impact of anthropogenic perturbation on SS load and their relative contribution by anthropogenic perturbations.

Here, combining the GIS and aerial photography, we report government-scheduled decontamination dataset for the Nidda river basin and exhibit the significant difference in their land covers in spatiotemporal scales, revealing the existence of different soil erosivity therein. Through a long-term monitoring campaign spanning decontamination and post-decontamination stages, we systematically explore the dynamic influence of decontamination on SS and particulate 137Cs transport. Our results show SS load (normalized by precipitation factor) gradually increased but particulate 137Cs concentration dropped sharply with the processing of decontamination, which probably is attributable to the increasing supply of 137Cs-depleted eroded soil particulate from decontaminated land. We estimate the range of 137Cs fluxes within 122 to 588 GBq·a-1 in 2013-2018 and find a continuous declination tendency in 137Cs load after 2015, suggesting that decontamination restraining fluvial 137Cs into the ocean. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), we evaluate the land cover changes in the decontaminated regions and applied them in the universal soil loss equation (ULSE) for estimating the fluvial load of SS during the study period. In comparison with the total SS flux in the study region, about 32%~71% of fluvial SS were thought from decontaminated land, highlighting the important role of decontamination in SS supply.  

Scientifically, our findings not only fill the knowledge gap in the influence of decontamination but also respond to the global concern about yearly variations of 137Cs fluxes into the ocean under the influence of decontamination. More importantly, we propose and validate an approach for evaluating the input of SS and particulate 137Cs to the ocean, which is extendable to apply in other interested catchment and forest.

How to cite: Feng, B., Onda, Y., Yamanaka, Y., and Taniguchi, K.: Influence of the decontamination work on suspended sediment dynamics and 137Cs migration after the Fukushima nuclear accident, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14891, 2021.

EGU21-251 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

What were the main sources of sediment and associated radiocesium transported during the heavy 2019 typhoons in rivers draining the main Fukushima radioactive plume, Japan ?

Olivier Evrard, Roxanne Durand, Atsushi Nakao, J. Patrick Laceby, Irène Lefèvre, Yoshifumi Wakiyama, Seiji Hayashi, Cécile Asanuma-Brice, and Olivier Cerdan

The Fukushima nuclear accident released large quantities of radionuclides into the environment in March 2011 and generated a 3000-km² plume of soils heavily contaminated with Cs-137. Soil erosion in the region mainly takes place during typhoons generally occurring between July and October (Laceby et al., 2016). During these events, rivers draining the main plume may transport large quantities of sediment and radiocesium. Typhoon Hagibis that occurred in October 2019 was the most intense rainfall event affecting the Fukushima region (rainfall range: 77–558 mm) since the nuclear accident in 2011. It led to extensive landsliding and river overflow.

The impact of this event on sediment sources and Cs-137 contamination was quantified through the implementation of sediment fingerprinting using geochemistry and spectrocolorimetry as potential input properties. The signature of potential source material (including cropland prepared for recultivation after decontamination, forests and subsurface material originating from landslides and channel bank collapse; n=57) was compared with that of sediment deposits collected in the Mano and Niida River catchments late in October 2019. Results show that cropland supplied the main source of sediment (average: 54%) along with forests (41%). In contrast, the contribution of subsurface material (5%) was much lower, likely because landslides and channel bank erosion mainly took place after the flood peak (Evrard et al., 2020). However, this material that deposited at the foot of hillslopes after the typhoon may be mobilized and delivered to the river network by subsequent rainfall events.

Overall, this flood did not modify the decreasing trend observed in terms of Cs-137 contamination in sediment transiting these rivers between 2011 and 2019. Concentrations in Cs-137 observed in sediment collected in 2019 were on average 84–93% lower than those measured after the accident in 2011. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of decontamination conducted on agricultural and residential soils in the region (Evrard et al., 2019), although the role of forests – that have not been remediated – as a perennial source of sediment and radiocesium in the region remains to be investigated over the longer term.

References

Evrard, O., Durand, R., Nakao, A., Patrick Laceby, J., Lefèvre, I., Wakiyama, Y., Hayashi, S., Asanuma-Brice, C. and Cerdan, O., 2020. Impact of the 2019 typhoons on sediment source contributions and radiocesium concentrations in rivers draining the Fukushima radioactive plume, Japan. Comptes Rendus Géoscience, 352(3): 199-211.

Evrard, O., Laceby, J.P. and Nakao, A., 2019. Effectiveness of landscape decontamination following the Fukushima nuclear accident: a review. SOIL, 5(2): 333-350.

Laceby, J.P., Chartin, C., Evrard, O., Onda, Y., Garcia-Sanchez, L. and Cerdan, O., 2016. Rainfall erosivity in catchments contaminated with fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(6): 2467-2482.

 

How to cite: Evrard, O., Durand, R., Nakao, A., Laceby, J. P., Lefèvre, I., Wakiyama, Y., Hayashi, S., Asanuma-Brice, C., and Cerdan, O.: What were the main sources of sediment and associated radiocesium transported during the heavy 2019 typhoons in rivers draining the main Fukushima radioactive plume, Japan ?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-251, 2021.

EGU21-13826 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1 | Highlight

Geochemistry and provenance of sediment plume samples collected from the Burdekin region of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, Australia.

Zoe Bainbridge, Jon Olley, Stephen Lewis, and Tom Stevens

The novel application of the SediPump® sampling device to capture sufficient sediment mass from low concentration flood plume waters has enabled catchment source tracing of GBR flood plume sediment for the first time. Focused on the single largest exporter of sediment to the GBR, the Burdekin River, three wet season discharge events were sampled from 2017 to 2019 to characterise and trace flood plume suspended sediments using geochemistry, fallout radionuclides and clay mineralogy. Sampling targeted the end-of-river (EoR) flow hydrograph to capture contributing catchment sources, and flood plume samples from both the adjacent turbid primary waters and offshore secondary waters up to 160 km from the EoR. Analysis of EoR and plume sediment major element geochemistry indicates standard geochemical sediment tracing approaches cannot be applied to a large river catchment such as this, or across the catchment-marine continuum, where particle fractionation has occurred both within the catchment and across the salinity gradient from the river mouth. Further, the secondary plume sediments have also been affected by the addition of marine-sourced carbonate and biogenic silica. We show elemental ratios of the rare earth elements (REE) and thorium (Th) can be used as stable tracers across this continuum, and importantly, used to trace Burdekin plume terrigenous sediment transported >100 km’s from the river mouth back to its EoR REE/Th signal, which was unique for each of the three discharge events. These ratios were also used to trace this sediment to a major sub-catchment source. Additional fallout radionuclide 137Cs analysis of a sub-set of Burdekin EoR and plume samples also reveal sediment being transported in these GBR flood plumes are almost exclusively derived from sub-surface erosion processes.

How to cite: Bainbridge, Z., Olley, J., Lewis, S., and Stevens, T.: Geochemistry and provenance of sediment plume samples collected from the Burdekin region of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, Australia., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13826, 2021.

Sediment fingerprinting is a technique for determining the proportional contributions of sediment from erosion sources delivered to downstream locations. It involves selecting tracers that discriminate sediment sources and determining contributions from those sources using tracers.  These tracers can include geochemical, fallout radionuclides, magnetic properties, and compound specific stable isotope (CSSI) values of plant-derived biotracers that label of soils and sediment.  A range of tracer applications and developments in source un-mixing have been demonstrated in the literature and, while the basis for discriminating sediment sources is reasonably well understood, research has drawn increasing attention to limitations and uncertainties associated with source apportionment. Numerical mixtures provide a way to test model performance using idealized mixtures with known source proportions. Although this approach has been applied previously, it has not been used to test and compare model performance across a range of tracer types with varied source contribution dominance and number of sources.

We used numerical mixtures to examine the ability of two different tracer sets (geochemical and CSSI), each with two tracer selections, to discriminate sources using a common source dataset. Sources were sampled according to erosion process and land cover in the Aroaro catchment (22 km2), New Zealand.  Here we sampled top-soils and sub-soils from pasture (n = 12 sites), harvested pine (12), kanuka scrub (7) and native forest (4) locations. Composite soil samples were collected at 0-2 and 40-50 cm depth increments to represent surface and shallow landslide (subsoil) erosion sources. Stream sediment (11) samples were also collected for initial unmixing.  Here, we focus on using numerical mixtures with geochemical and CSSI tracers for an increasing number of sources (3 to 6) where each individual and pairwise combination of sources were systematically set as the dominant source.  Since mixing models for CSSI tracers produce source contributions based on isotopic proportions (Isotopic%) instead of soil contributions (Soil%), CSSI numerical mixtures were created for Isotopic% and Soil% to assess the impact this correction factor may have on model performance.  In total, over 400 model scenarios were tested.

Numerical mixture testing indicated that the dominant source can have a significant impact on model performance.  If the dominant source is well discriminated, then the model performs well but accuracy declines significantly as discrimination of the dominant source reduces. This occurs more frequently with an increasing number of sources. The geochemical dataset performed well for erosion-based sources while both tracer sets produced larger apportionment errors for land cover sources. CSSI model performance was generally poorer for Soil% than Isotopic%, indicating high sensitivity to the percent soil organic carbon in each source, especially when there are large differences in organic matter between sources.

 

How to cite: Vale, S., Swales, A., Smith, H., Olsen, G., and Woodward, B.: Evaluating the effects of tracer selection, source dominance and source number on the accuracy and sensitivity of source apportionment using sediment fingerprinting. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13691, 2021.

EGU21-1567 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal and spatial variation in source of sediment to lakes across hydrological gradients of floodplains

Mitchell Kay, Heidi Swanson, Jacob Burbank, Tanner Owca, Lauren MacDonald, Cory Savage, Casey Remmer, Laura Neary, Johan Wiklund, Brent Wolfe, and Roland Hall

Episodic flood events are critical for recharging water balance of floodplain lakes and maintaining their ecological integrity, yet are subject to alteration in frequency and magnitude by natural and anthropogenic processes that operate over a range of spatial and temporal scales. To evaluate roles of potential stressors, paleolimnological reconstructions are used to obtain insights into hydrological variability of dynamic floodplain lakes. However, spatial and temporal integration is often underdeveloped because different paleolimnological measurements must be applied across lakes due to the wide range of energy conditions that impart marked differences in sediment composition. Here, we use a linear discriminant analysis to identify 10 significant elemental concentrations in surveyed sediment from multiple sampling campaigns that distinguish the geochemical fingerprints of three end-member sources in lakes at the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD; Canada): the Athabasca River, the Peace River and local catchment runoff. Over 90% of the sediment samples were correctly classified into the original groups after cross-validation due to the distinctiveness of the three end members, which permits development of a robust Bayesian mixing model to discern the relative contributions of sediment from the three sources. We evaluate the mixing model at two adjacent lakes in the Athabasca sector of the PAD and demonstrate its effectiveness to discriminate three known hydrological phases during the past 300 years. Notably, the model infers ~60% of the sediment originated from the Peace River during the largest ice-jam flood event on record (1974), which was unrecognized by other methods. We then applied our model to sediment records from 18 lakes spanning the hydrological gradients across the 6000 km2 PAD to further probe the hydrological evolution during the past ~150 years. Results demonstrate decline in frequency of flooding from both the Athabasca and Peace rivers and lake-level drawdown since the early 20th century and align remarkably well with prior interpretation of conventional paleohydrological records of individual lakes. We advocate our approach provides a universal method that can be applied across the full range of sediment composition to quantify change in source, frequency and magnitude of river floodwaters to lakes and is transferable to other dynamic floodplain landscapes where variation of sediment composition challenges efficacy of other approaches.

How to cite: Kay, M., Swanson, H., Burbank, J., Owca, T., MacDonald, L., Savage, C., Remmer, C., Neary, L., Wiklund, J., Wolfe, B., and Hall, R.: A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal and spatial variation in source of sediment to lakes across hydrological gradients of floodplains, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1567, 2021.

The reservoir siltation has been of critical environmental concerns in recent years. The vulnerability and the overdevelopment in the reservoir watershed are the causes of the reservoir sedimentation. While typhoon events happen, in addition to the great amount of sediment volume transported from the upstream to the reservoir region, the density currents may evolve, which will steeply increase turbidity levels for the periods of time. In particular, the Shihmen Reservoir, one of essential hydraulic engineering projects in northern Taiwan, has been exposed to crisis that the sedimentation may fill up in the next few decades. Therefore, in order to maintain the reservoir capacity to an operational extent, modeling the sediment transport patterns in Shihmen Reservoir will utilize the three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) for quantifying sediment concentrations during the typhoon event. Calibration and validation of EFDC are performed by comparing two independent sets of event-based hydrodynamic and sediment concentration data with assistance of the parameter optimization algorithm. Next, the Backward-forward Stochastic Particle Tracking Model (BF-SPTM) is further incorporated into the EFDC hydrodynamic module to check the likelihood of the potential source of sediment particles. Results of simulations are expected to provide a more precise release timing for flow regulation to ensure the effective slag removal for density currents. Additionally, with probable sedimentation sources available for a reservoir, effective land use change and restrictions on overdevelopment of the risk prone areas can be enforced to decrease the sediment yields into the reservoir. It is expected that this incorporation of BF-SPTM into EFDC can be applied to simulate sediment transport in typhoon events, and to provide appropriate reservoir management alternatives.

Keywords: Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), suspended sediment concentration, Backward-forward Stochastic Particle Tracking Model, Probable sedimentation source

How to cite: Liu, W.-J. and Tsai, C. W.: Incorporating Backward-forward Stochastic Particle Tracking Model into the EFDC model for Probable Sedimentation Source identification in Typhoon events, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11346, 2021.

EGU21-11926 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1 | Highlight

Application of Google Earth Engine (GEE) to obtain calibration data for a large-scale hydrosedimentological model: a test case in South America

Renata Rossoni, Fernando Fan, and Leonardo Laipelt

In hydrosedimentological modelling, the lack of high temporal resolution field data is a limiting factor for the assessment of the performance of models. This way, the remote sensing images have been studied to correlate imagery information with suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the last decades, aiming to complement field data, by improving the SSC information temporal and spatial resolution. Thus, the present work used the Google Earth Engine (GEE), a cloud-based platform, to systematically obtain red band reflectance information from Landsat 5 imagery to support large-scale hydrosedimentological modelling. The test case was to the Rio Grande do Sul state hydrological region in Brazil, a South American region with scarce SSC data. The methodology applied consisted in nine steps using GEE code: (1) river width analysis using remote sensing imagery to localize the virtual gauge stations (VGS) from the intersection between the discretization of hydrosedimentological model and the chosen rivers, (2) TM sensor definition, onboard of Landsat 5 satellite, (3) collection of red reflectance information between 1990 and 2010, based on previous works that presented better correlation between red reflectance and SSC, (4) in each VGS, we created a circle of radius equal to 1000 m, (5) to each image, we removed clouded-pixels, using the Landsat 5 quality bands, (6) we generated a dynamic water mask to each image to ensure that only pixels with water would be used to collected reflectance information, (7) finally, we calculated the mean of red band reflectance inside the intersection of water mask and circle buffer, removing the clouded-pixels, (8) we calculated a filter to remove remnants clouded-pixels and random errors from imagery, (9) we used the MGB-SED model to simulate long-term SSC in the region and we calibrated the model with the GEE data based on a correlation approach. The results found were: (i) 1267 virtual gauge stations, approximately 20 times the number of in situ SSC gauging stations available in the region, (ii) a larger area of data and greater temporal resolution, (iii) improvement in the correlation between model results and red reflectance, when we assess the model with SSC observed data. In conclusion, the work shows the potential of GEE to simply obtain large-scale reflectance data that could be used to improve the calibration processes of large-scale hydrosedimentological modelling.

How to cite: Rossoni, R., Fan, F., and Laipelt, L.: Application of Google Earth Engine (GEE) to obtain calibration data for a large-scale hydrosedimentological model: a test case in South America, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11926, 2021.

EGU21-8432 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

Climate reanalysis data with global coverage enable sediment load prediction in the absence of systematic field data

Kilian Mouris, Sebastian Schwindt, Stefan Haun, Maria Herminia Pesci, Kristian Förster, Nils Rüther, Kordula Schwarzwälder, and Silke Wieprecht

Hydro-morphodynamic models are increasingly popular for predicting sedimentation processes in reservoirs. To leverage the accuracy of such models, their boundary conditions have to be defined as precise as possible. While hydrological models provide efficient routines to establish inflow hydrographs at the model boundaries, the determination of the sediment input is challenging and involves large uncertainties. This study identifies prominent parameters that influence the sediment input into a reservoir, and therefore, expected sedimentation rates. For this purpose, erosion and transport processes in the catchment area of the Banja Reservoir (Albania) are analyzed.

The Banja Reservoir is located on the Devoll River in the Southeast of Albania and has a storage capacity of 400 Million m³. The catchment area has a size of 2,900 km² and lies in a mountainous region. The climate is characterized by dry and hot summers and humid winters. There are significant differences in precipitation patterns in the catchment due to topographical conditions and with increasing distance from the coast in the West of the reservoir. Because snowfall is frequent in winter, the runoff regime of the Devoll River and its tributaries is driven by precipitation and snowmelt.

To calculate the sediment input at the inflow boundaries of the reservoir, a comprehensive analysis in combination with hydrological modelling of the catchment is indispensable. This study applies the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model coupled with the SEdiment Delivery Distributed (SEDD) model, as an integrated approach that bridges interdisciplinary expertise in geomorphology and hydrology. Since measured precipitation data neither fulfils minimum requirements in terms of spatio-temporal resolution nor in terms of time series length, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset is used as input data. The coupled model is calibrated with suspended sediment data measured at a monitoring station upstream of the reservoir over a 2–years period. The model enables to approximate the monthly or annual sediment load for any point in the river network. Thus, the sediment load into the reservoir can be assessed for every major tributary, even in areas with limited data availability. In addition, a high spatial resolution (25 m x 25 m) of the model enables the identification of areas that cause particularly high sediment loads.

The optimized coupled model predicts sediment loads that are in good agreement with sediment loads measured at the monitoring station (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: NSEannual = 0.96; NSEmonthly = 0.81). Consequently, climate reanalysis datasets are a viable alternative in regions with data scarcity. Furthermore, the spatial representation of the results suggests that the sediment load into the reservoir mainly originates from steep and sparsely vegetated or agricultural areas close to the river network. Intensive rainfall additionally fosters erosion, which is why erosion rates are higher in the Western part of the catchment area.

How to cite: Mouris, K., Schwindt, S., Haun, S., Pesci, M. H., Förster, K., Rüther, N., Schwarzwälder, K., and Wieprecht, S.: Climate reanalysis data with global coverage enable sediment load prediction in the absence of systematic field data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8432, 2021.

EGU21-10671 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

A review of worldwide sediment core dating research including fallout radiocaesium (137Cs)  

Anthony Foucher, Pierre Sabatier, Pierre-Alexis Chaboche, and Olivier Evrard

Dating recent sediment archives (<150 years) constitutes are need for environmental and climatic reconstructions. Radiocaesium (137Cs) emitted during thermonuclear bombs testing (~1950 - ~1980) and nuclear accidents (1986 and 2011) was generally used for identifying sediment sources or for establishing sediment core chronology based on discrete time markers. Although this method was widely used during the last several decades, there is a lack of structured and comprehensive worldwide synthesis of radiocaesium fallouts. The current literature overview was based on 573 articles published between 1977 and 2020, reporting the collection of 1351 individual dated sediment cores. This synthesis led to the identification of the worldwide distribution of discrete time markers associated with the thermonuclear bomb testing peak in 1963, the Chernobyl fallout, the Fukushima fallout, as well as the identification of at least 25 events induced by local accidents or nuclear tests (e.g. Sellafield, la Hague accidents, Chinese nuclear tests).

With a growing number of studies focusing on the analysis of recent sediment cores and the increasing interest in sediment fingerprinting techniques, this spatialized synthesis provides a unique worldwide referential for identifying the distribution of the 137Cs sources at global scale. It also outlines the main questions that would deserve attention in future research perspectives and the regions where 137Cs fallouts investigations should be conducted in priority.

How to cite: Foucher, A., Sabatier, P., Chaboche, P.-A., and Evrard, O.: A review of worldwide sediment core dating research including fallout radiocaesium (137Cs)  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10671, 2021.

EGU21-161 * | vPICO presentations | HS9.1 | Highlight

Strengths and limitations of sediment source fingerprinting in high mountain environments and relevance for soil restoration

Amaury Frankl, Olivier Evrard, Erik Cammeraat, and Alexia Stokes

High mountain environments are among the most sensitive on Earth. Due to anthropogenic disturbances and climate change, rates of regolith mobilization due to for example landsliding have been accelerating recently. As a result, soils degrade, geohazards occur and flash floods have negative consequences in downstream areas. The restoration of soils in high mountain environments and an improved understanding of nature-based solutions to land degradation is, therefore, urgent. As finding the origin of erosion sources is a first step to improve mitigation strategies and guide the implementation of effective soil restoration measures, we discuss sediment source fingerprinting research in the context of soil restoration in high mountain environments. A literature review was done based on articles that apply sediment source fingerprinting in high mountain environments and additional articles on land use-based markers and soil restoration were used to develop an outlook for future research. The application of sediment provenance studies in high mountains environments has been limited so far. While some studies yield a rough distinction between sediment sources based on environmental radionuclides or elemental geochemistry, they cannot reflect multiple semi-natural vegetation types which are relevant source types that should be discriminated in high mountain environments. Therefore, we explore emerging techniques such as eDNA tracing that could potentially refine the information on the provenance of sediment based on land use and cover sources. Then, we will address the challenging hydro-geomorphic environment of high mountains and the implications for designing properly a sediment tracing study in such a context. We will conclude by presenting an outlook to guide future applications of sediment source fingerprinting in high mountain environments, where geohazards are imminent and soil restoration is urgent.

Key words: alpine, environmental DNA, erosion, landslide, vegetation

How to cite: Frankl, A., Evrard, O., Cammeraat, E., and Stokes, A.: Strengths and limitations of sediment source fingerprinting in high mountain environments and relevance for soil restoration, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-161, 2021.

EGU21-14536 | vPICO presentations | HS9.1

A review on share of river bank erosion to the total sediment load with increasing catchment size

Ghulam Abbas, Seifeddine Jomaa, and Michael Rode

Information on the share of river bank erosion to the total sediment load at catchment scale by using the fingerprinting approach is important to address our knowledge of erosion processes to better target soil erosion control measures. In particular, river bank erosion is affected by many factors such as spatial and temporal variables and is difficult to quantify the relationship of the share of bank erosion to catchment size and upland erosion rate without extensive fieldwork and data analysis. Potential tracers including geochemical, fallout radionuclides, bulk and compound-specific stable isotopes, and magnetic properties have been used, often in combination with sediment source apportionment. In this worldwide review, the global dataset for percent share of river bank and surface erosion using fingerprinting approach was collected to establish the significance of catchment size and other physical controls on river bank erosion. Google Scholar and Web of Science were used to review research articles that included river bank/subsurface as one of the sediment sources in the study areas. This database showed that the UK (n = 84), USA (n = 14) and Brazil (n = 10) had the highest number of catchments, followed by Iran (n = 4), Southern Zambia (n = 1), Australia (n = 1), Spain (n = 1), Mongolia (n = 1) and Burkina Faso (n = 1) ranging in size from 0.31 to 15000 km2, predominately agriculture. Based on published studies, there is a clear shift of sediment sources from surface erosion to river bank erosion with increasing catchment size. The results show the wide range of relative contributions of surface and river bank sources to the catchment sediment yield around the globe. There are a number of catchments with river bank contribution exceeding 25% and surface contribution exceeding 90% of total sediment loss. This diversity highlights the many factors that influence river bank erosion. In addition to the wide range, sediment source contribution in the range 1-25% from river bank is generally representative around the World. We recommend that long term monitoring of sediment load and surface and river bank sources at nested sites within a catchment are indispensable. Furthermore, limited information on the share of sources often makes it difficult to target mitigation measures reducing sediment loads at the catchment scale.

Keywords: Sediment load, catchment size, fingerprinting approach, river bank share

How to cite: Abbas, G., Jomaa, S., and Rode, M.: A review on share of river bank erosion to the total sediment load with increasing catchment size, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14536, 2021.

HS9.2 – Transfer of sediments and contaminants in catchments, rivers systems and lakes

EGU21-148 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

115 years of sediment deposition in the Urft reservoir (Eifel Mountains, western Germany)

Georg Stauch, Alexander Esch, Lukas Dörwald, Verena Esser, Simone Lechthaler, Frank Lehmkuhl, Philipp Schulte, and Janek Walk

The sediments of the artificial Urft reservoir represent a unique archive of human influence on late Holocene sediment composition. The Urft dam, located in the Eifel Mountains in western Germany, was built between 1900 and 1905. At the time of its construction, the Urft reservoir was the largest reservoir and, with 12 MW, drove the most powerful water storage power plant in Europe. The reservoir has a length of 12 km and, when fully dammed, has a volume of 45.51 million m³ over an area of 2.16 km². The most important inflow is the river Urft. Today, the Urft Lake is completely enclosed by the Eifel National Park.

Consequently, sediments were deposited in the lake almost undisturbed over the last 115 years. Due to construction work on the Urft dam and the inspection of the 2.7 km long Kermeter Tunnel, which powers the Heimbach hydroelectric power plant, the reservoir was almost completely drained in November 2020. This offered the rare opportunity to sample the deposits in detail and to record the entire lake area photogrammetrically using an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). The work was carried out in cooperation between the Water Board Eifel-Rur (WVER) and the Chair of Physical Geography and Geoecology (PGG) at RWTH Aachen University.

Within the framework of the project, the sediments in the reservoir will be investigated in detail. The comparison of the high-resolution UAS digital elevation models and historical maps will give insights in the amount of sediment deposition in the different areas of the lake during the last 115 years. Geochemical markers will be used to quantify the anthropogenic influence on the sediments in the form of mining-induced pollutant contamination (e.g., heavy metals) and to relate this to the history of use in the catchment area. Another focus will be on recording the microplastics content of the different sediment layers. Since microplastics have only been introduced into the natural system by humans for the last 70 years since the beginning of mass production around 1950, the sediment layers can also be differentiated in terms of time. For these investigations, a total of ten sediment cores with a length of up to 4 m were taken from the deposits.

How to cite: Stauch, G., Esch, A., Dörwald, L., Esser, V., Lechthaler, S., Lehmkuhl, F., Schulte, P., and Walk, J.: 115 years of sediment deposition in the Urft reservoir (Eifel Mountains, western Germany), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-148, 2021.

EGU21-15360 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Transport and storage of anthropogenic contaminants in the Red River Delta, Vietnam 

Virginia Panizzo, Lucy Roberts, Nga Do, Sarah Taylor, Michael Watts, Elliott Hamilton, Suzanne McGowan, Duc Trinh, Melanie Leng, and Jorge Salgado

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) in large rivers is the main source of material into delta river ecosystems and the world’s oceans, and is the primary carrier of heavy metals. Large rivers are therefore important sources of pollutant transport through the watershed and potentially alter natural riverine biogeochemical cycling. Asian mega-deltas are some of the most densely populated and urbanizing environments in the world, with pollution, erosion, and anthropogenic catchment modifications changing sediment fluxes and pollutant transport across their catchments. The River Delta (RRD), northern Vietnam, comprises 14,300 km2, making it the fourth largest delta in Southeast Asia. The area has a large population of >22 million and has seen a rapid increase in industry and agriculture with waste products from domestic activities, agriculture, and industry entering the river network often unregulated and untreated. To estimate the impacts of industrialisation in the RRD delta, we measured downriver suspended sediment and pollutant flux from 21 locations over a 17 month period from March 2018 to July 2019. Previous studies suggest sediment retention in the RRD, which is supported here in 2019 with ~30% of sediments retained in the delta. Increased precipitation in 2018, however, led to a ~40% increase in sediment delivery between the inlet and the outlets of the delta, most likely attributed to erosion. Anthropogenic contaminant loads between the inlet and outlets suggest the retention of heavy metals within the delta irrespective of the sediment flux (e.g. a reduction by ~4 and ~14% of SPM bound Cr between sites in 2018 and 2019). This may, in part, be due to spatial variations across the delta revealing ‘hotspots’ of pollution, with a progressive increase in the Cr concentration of SPM between Son Tay (a predominantly agricultural landscape) and Hanoi (a major industrialised urban area) suggesting domestic and industrial waste are major sources of heavy metal pollution. XRF data from upstream Hoa Binh reservoir sediment cores (collected 2017) will permit a comparison of background contaminant storage in the RRD catchment, to better quantify downstream impacts of anthropogenic activity as well as underpin the effects of impoundments on sediment export from the riverine system. Results highlight the role of deltas in ‘filtering’ contaminants to protect coastal areas, but the retention of high loads of pollutants also has potential consequences for the bioaccumulation of heavy metals through the food chain and could ultimately have severe consequences for aquatic and human health in these areas. 

How to cite: Panizzo, V., Roberts, L., Do, N., Taylor, S., Watts, M., Hamilton, E., McGowan, S., Trinh, D., Leng, M., and Salgado, J.: Transport and storage of anthropogenic contaminants in the Red River Delta, Vietnam , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15360, 2021.

EGU21-15545 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Spatial distribution of water-mobilizable colloids and phosphorus from dam reservoir sediment 

Ngoc Diep Nguyen, Malgorzata Grybos, Marion Rabiet, and Véronique Deluchat

The hydrodynamics of dam reservoirs favor the accumulation of phosphorus (P) in bottom sediments since it has a strong affinity for the sedimentary particles. However mechanical disturbance of sediment (resuspension) may release P back to water column. The load of sedimentary P poses a serious ecological problem related to the maintaining of water eutrophication. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of sediments, accumulated in Champsanglard reservoir (Central France), to release water-mobilizable colloidal and dissolved P. A sampling campaign was carried out at different locations along the main channel of reservoir from riverine to lacustrine area and characterized by different hydrodynamics. The results showed that colloids are intrinsic component of reservoir sediment and contribute up to 2.3% of sediment mass. Colloidal P attributed up to 6% of total sedimentary P and 80% of water-mobilizable P (fraction < 1 µm). The stock of water-mobilizable colloids and associated P varied according to particle size distribution and was strongly dependent to channel morphology, hydrodynamics and inlet of tributary.

Keywords: Dam reservoir, sedimentary colloids, phosphorus form, spatial variability

How to cite: Nguyen, N. D., Grybos, M., Rabiet, M., and Deluchat, V.: Spatial distribution of water-mobilizable colloids and phosphorus from dam reservoir sediment , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15545, 2021.

EGU21-6260 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Impact of fluvial flooding on potentially toxic element mobility in floodplain soils 

Jessica Ponting, Anne Verhoef, Michael Watts, and Tom Sizmur

Climate projections suggest that rainfall events will become more frequent and intense, which may lead to more widespread flooding. Floodplains can be used to help reduce the magnitude of floods downstream by storing excess flood water, thus making them useful for flood risk management. This means that floodplains are subjected to repeated drying and rewetting, which has implications for biogeochemical cycling of chemical elements in floodplain soils.

Floodplains have been considered a sink for contaminants in urban catchments, where high river flows transport contaminated sediments downstream and deposit them onto the floodplain topsoil. With increasing flooding frequency and duration, floodplains may become sources of legacy pollution through desorption of contaminants into soil porewater or resuspension of particulate matter into the overlying floodwater. Therefore, flooding could re-mobilise potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), Chromium (Cr), Nickel (Ni), and Lead (Pb) that are present in the floodplain soil as a result of historic deposition. Mobilising PTEs in floodplain soils may cause adverse ecological impacts for soil microorganisms, plants, and both terrestrial and aquatic fauna.

The mobility of PTEs from the floodplain soil can increase or decrease due to the net effect of five key processes that influence dispersion and accumulation; 1) soil redox potential for which decreases  can directly alter the speciation, and hence mobility, of redox sensitive PTEs (e.g. As and Cr), 2) soil pH for which an increase usually reduces the mobility of metal cations (e.g. Cd2+, Cu2+, Ni2+, Pb2+), 3) dissolved organic matter which can mobilise PTEs were strongly bound to soil particles, 4) iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) hydroxides undergo reductive dissolution, releasing adsorbed and co-precipitated PTEs, and 5) reduction of sulphate which immobilises PTEs due to precipitation of metal sulphides.

We took a field-based approach; extracting soil pore waters from a floodplain downstream of a typical urban catchment in southeast England before, during and after a flooding event. During the flood, there was increased mobility of Cd and Pb, and decreased mobility for Cu and Cr, compared to the mobility before flooding. After the flood, Ni mobility increased, whereas the other PTEs had lower mobility than they had prior to the flood. We also measured explanatory variables (e.g. pH, redox, Fe and Mn) that might explain the changes in mobility of PTEs that we found. Reductive dissolution of Mn is a possible mechanism for the increased mobility of Cd and Pb and redox likely played a role in the reduced Cr mobility.

Flooding did not influence the mobility of all PTEs in the same way. The duration of flooding is thought to influence the mobilisation due to the length of time for key processes to take place. It is therefore difficult to predict what PTEs might be mobilised into the environment with any given flooding event, further work is required to identify which soil properties should be measured in order to improve our capability to predict how a flooding event will influence the mobility of individual PTEs in geochemically contrasting floodplain soils.

How to cite: Ponting, J., Verhoef, A., Watts, M., and Sizmur, T.: Impact of fluvial flooding on potentially toxic element mobility in floodplain soils , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6260, 2021.

EGU21-14389 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Remobilization of hazardous contaminants caused by climate-induced flood events in (sub-)tropical river systems (Chennai, India)

Luisa Helm, Fabienne Uphoff, Piero Bellanova, Nina Engels, Jan Schwarzbauer, Frank Lehmkuhl, and Klaus Reicherter

An alarming rise of sea level is the most prominent but by far not the only hazardous phenomenon caused by climatic change. Extreme weather events with increasing frequency, such as droughts or contrasting heavy rainfalls, cause severe harm to local populations. This holds true especially for fast-growing urban centers, such as Chennai (India) with a missing or unmaintained waste and drainage management. These large coastal population centers face an increasing vulnerability to frequently reoccurring monsoon-induced floods (e.g., Chennai flood 2015; Kochi flood 2018, 2019), intensified by the advancing urbanization along the urban landscape crossing river systems and adjacent floodplains. Accompanied with these extreme floods are the increased release, re-localization and distribution of toxic xenobiotics and other pollutants (e.g., PAHs, LABs, DEHA, Mesamoll®, NBFA, and pesticides) causing harm to adjacent communities and the environment along the river’s pathway. In order to endeavor the unknown risk posed by toxic river floods, to assess the flood and associated pollution history the preserved pollution signature from sedimentary records needs to be considered.

This investigation evaluates the inorganic and organic pollutant assemblage in nine sediment profiles along the Adyar and Cooum rivers (Chennai, India). Thereby heavy metals (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Pb) show a continuous concentration decrease downstream towards the coast with their specific sources remaining unsolved. Based on GC-MS analysis, four main groups of organic pollutants have been detected: petrogenic pollutants (hopanes, PAHs), urban wastewater compounds (LABs, DEHA, methyl-triclosan, octocrylene), technical compounds (Mesamoll®, DPE, NBFA, PCBs) and pesticides (DDX). Organic compounds show a distinctly differing distribution pattern compared to the heavy metals. Some compounds (e.g., PAHs, LABs, DEHA, NBFA, Mesamoll®) were detected in high concentrations deriving from nearby point sources (e.g., tributaries, canals). While most organic compounds show high source specific properties, the definite sources for other compounds remain vague as the result of large scale and diffusiveness of anthropogenic emissions, such as air pollution or (untreated) industrial and municipal wastewaters. The chosen approaches have shown that urban wastewater pollutants and several technical compounds are suitable markers to assess the anthropogenic induced pollution and event history in sedimentary archives. However, the given sedimentary archives in these fast-growing and urbanized population centers might not always allow a full reconstruction of past events, as anthropogenic alterations on the rivers course and floodplains effect the archive’s preservation potential. For Chennai, advantages and disadvantages regarding the chemostratigraphic preservation are delicately balanced. However, increasing urbanization and anthropogenic overprinting causes the disruption of sedimentary archives and redistribution of contaminated material (e.g., through dredging), this favors remobilization and relocation of hazardous contaminants, thus endangering the local population due to the high mobility of these pollutants.

How to cite: Helm, L., Uphoff, F., Bellanova, P., Engels, N., Schwarzbauer, J., Lehmkuhl, F., and Reicherter, K.: Remobilization of hazardous contaminants caused by climate-induced flood events in (sub-)tropical river systems (Chennai, India), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14389, 2021.

    Sediment geochemistry has been widely used to indentify the source of the sediments delivered from catchment to the deposition basin.  In this study, bed load sediments, high terrace soils, beach sediments, and cores drilled at estuary were collected at the catchment of Gangkou River and its tributary, Linlu River, southern Taiwan.  All sediments were sieved by 0.062 μm sifter and exchangeable, carbonate, and iron oxide phases were leached and only residue silicate phase were digested.  Chemical composition, rare earth elements (REEs), and lead isotopes were measured.  The results show that two major catchments, Linlu River and Gangkou River, as well as high terrace soil and beach sediments can be successfully classified by chemical composition and lead isotopes.  However, REEs show signature of upper continental crust and no differences among all the samples, possibly due to the same source of high REEs minerals.  The characteristic of chemical composition and lead isotopes are different between two catchments and the estuary sediments as well as beach sediments near the estuary imply mixing behavior between two catchments.  The upper most of the estuary core samples, presented as modern sediment, have similar chemical composition and lead isotopes compared with the mainstream.  However, the beach sediment on the top of the dune and the lower part of the core samples, which are elder than 7 ka, have distinct chemical and isotopic characteristics, indicating different sediment sources.  In, summary, chemical composition and the lead isotopes are robust tracers for the leached fine sediments in Gangkou River catchment but REEs are not.  The results of estuary core indicate that the sediment source of the estuary before 7 ka is different from the present.

How to cite: Chao, H.-C.: Spatial distribution of the sediments in the Gangkou River catchment: Evidence from chemical composition, rare earth elements, and lead isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-483, 2021.

EGU21-8238 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Catchment-scale metal retention revealed from natural bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR)

Sandra Fischer, Jerker Jarsjö, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Carl-Magnus Mörth

Acid mine drainage (AMD) threaten ecosystems world-wide and research on biological remediation techniques are increasing. One of them is bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR) that immobilizes the aqueous sulfate and through coprecipitation removes dissolved metals from the more bioavailable phase. Although BSR has previously only been investigated at the local wastewater treatment scale (e.g. for constructed wetlands), it is unknown to which extent they contribute to contaminant attenuation at larger scales (e.g. a hydrological basin). We developed a new method to trace the activity of BSR within an AMD-impacted catchment using sulfur isotopes (δ34S) and found that they naturally reduce 30% of the riverine sulfate and metal concentrations, with a spread from 10 to 50% reduction within the catchment. These results are based on surface water field measurements from our test site in northern Sweden combined in a mass-balance mixing model where we explicitly addressed the isotopic fractionation from bacterial activity. This innovative mapping of catchment-scale biogeochemical natural attenuation provides important clues to strategically target remediation measures, e.g. potential in-situ enhancement of the BSR activity. In combination with stable water isotopes we hope to refine this method to further identify BSR hot spots within the catchment and to extend its application to other sites, e.g. the Khibiny mining region, Russia.

How to cite: Fischer, S., Jarsjö, J., Rosqvist, G., and Mörth, C.-M.: Catchment-scale metal retention revealed from natural bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8238, 2021.

The intensive farmland in north China accounts for more than 17% of China's arable land area and is main producing area of wheat and corn in China. The response of sources and loads of sediment of N and P pollutants to the high-intensity agricultural activities in north China still remains unclear. The study aims to quantify the source and magnitude of N and P pollutants in the sediment from different land use types using a novel application of compound-specific δ13C isotopes (CSSI), 137Cs and 210Pbex (FRNs), in a representative agricultural catchment (Jiangou). Surface (0-2 cm) soil and sediment samples were collected from different plant species for CSSI and FRNs, while subsurface (5-30 cm) soil samples were collected from channel bank for FRNs. The 137Cs cores (0-60 cm) collected at the outlet of the catchment and also at reference sites. Sediment sources from surface and subsurface soils were derived by FRNs data which accounted by 83±6% and 17±6%, respectively, while the sediment sources from maize, bean, vegetable farmlands and forestlands on the surface soil areas were identified by CSSI data. Combining FRNs and CSSI fingerprinting techniques, the dominant sediment source was derived from maize farmland which contributed by 60±8%, followed by channel bank, bean farmland and vegetable farmland which accounted for 17±6%, 12±3% and 8±3%, respectively, and the least contribution was from forestland (3±1%). According to the 137Cs cores (0-60 cm) collected at the outlet of Jiangou catchment, a sedimentation rate of 23.38±0.22 t ha-1 yr-1 of this study catchment was quantified. The 137Cs inventory of the reference site was 1162±131Bq m-2. Based on the measured of N and P concentrations in source samples, and areas of land uses in this catchment, we quantitatively estimated the N pollutant in sediment (t yr-1) from maize (2.19), bean (0.42), vegetable farmlands (0.31), forestland (0.49) and channel bank (0.05), while P pollutant (t yr-1) were 4.39 for maize, 0.18 for beans, 0.28 for vegetable farmland, 0.37 for forestland and 0.04 for channel bank. This study shows that the novel conjunctive use of FRNs and CSSI techniques could quantify the N and P pollutants in sediment from different land uses in catchment, which is critical to assess and implement effective agricultural and land management practices.

How to cite: Yu, H. and Adu-Gyamfi, J.: Quantitively and novelty source fingerprinting N and P pollutants in sediment: Case study in a small catchment, North China , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10946, 2021.

EGU21-12239 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Mercury and arsenic in suspended particulate and sediments from the Fosso della Chiusa creek fed by the Galleria Italia mining drainage (Abbadia San Salvatore, central Italy). 

Marta Lazzaroni, Marino Zuccolini, Barbara Nisi, Jacopo Cabassi, Daniele Rappuoli, and Orlando Vaselli

The Mediterranean area hosts three important mercury mining districts, which are presently abandoned and partially reclaimed: Almadén (Spain), Monte Amiata-Abbadia San Salvatore (Italy) and Idrija (Slovenia). The Galleria Italia (Italy) is the only mining drainage of the former mining area from Abbadia San Salvatore, which feeds the 2.5 km long Fosso della Chiusa. The Galleria Italia waters are circumneutral (pH ≈ 6) and characterized by Ca(Mg)-SO4 composition; TDS around 1000 mg/L; high concentrations of Fe, Mn and Al (18714.5, 493.3, 486.6 μg/L, respectively) and dissolved CO2. The high content of these elements is also present in the stream sediments. In the mining district area of Abbadia San Salvatore, the Galleria Italia-Fosso della Chiusa system is connected to a major riverine network: i.e. the Pagliola, Paglia and Tiber rivers. This work is aimed to (i) characterize the interaction of Hg and As between the water and sediment compartments in the Fosso della Chiusa by including the suspended particulate; (ii) estimate the total Hg and As mass load released by Galleria Italia and iii) evaluate the total load discharged in the riverine network from the circumneutral mine drainage using the Igeo index. In 2020, during four sampling sessions, waters, sediments and suspended particulate were collected all along the Fosso della Chiusa creek. Each sampling station was located maintaining a relatively equidistance from the source to the confluence with the Pagliola river. Specific aliquots at 13 sites were collected to geochemically characterize the creek waters. Also, stream sediments were collected for determining the mineral composition and As, Hg, Sb while at the source and the mouth  2 L of waters were filtered at  <0.45 μm to measure the suspended material and the concentration of three chalcophile elements. A general decrease of the As content was observed along the creek in both waters and sediments, i.e. from 336 to 2 mg/kg and from 12 to 0.3 μg/L, respectively whereas no a clear trend was recognized for Hg, where the higher contents being up to 105 mg/kg and 2.8 μg/L, respectively. It is to mention that the reddish-whitish colour of the waters and sediments (due to the presence of oxy-hydroxide of Fe and, subordinately, Al and Mn) decreasing down to about 1 km from the source, suggesting, as supported by the analytical data, that the presence of the toxic elements in both the solid and aqueous phase. This implies that the environmental impact by the Galleria Italia waters and related sediments is limited spatially at least for As, as also evidenced by the Igeo index applied to sediments for As and Hg, the former showing a general decrease from Class 6 ( “extremely contaminated’’) to 1 (‘’non to moderately contaminated’’). Differently, Hg in each sampling site belongs to Class 6. Nevertheless, the Igeo ranking suggests that As tends to be preferentially partitioned in the liquid phase whilst Hg is mainly enriched in the solid fraction. This contrasting behaviour of As and Hg is also analytically observed when the suspended particulate is considered.

 

How to cite: Lazzaroni, M., Zuccolini, M., Nisi, B., Cabassi, J., Rappuoli, D., and Vaselli, O.: Mercury and arsenic in suspended particulate and sediments from the Fosso della Chiusa creek fed by the Galleria Italia mining drainage (Abbadia San Salvatore, central Italy). , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12239, 2021.

EGU21-62 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Plastics and microplastics – A future marker to reconstruct floodplain chronology (Opinion)

Collin J. Weber, Simone Lechthaler, Georg Stauch, and Christian Opp

After approximately two decades of plastic research in freshwater environments, plastics and especially microplastics (d < 5 mm) have entered the scientific consciousness as an anthropogenic pollutant. Even if this pollutant shows certain comparability with heavy metal pollution in soils and sediments, it should be seen as a purely anthropogenic material without geochemical or natural background loads, which leads to the assumption that it might also be a potential marker of the Anthropocene. Regarding the global plastic cycle within the environment, rivers act as main transport paths from land-to-sea. As rivers are embedded into landscapes, accumulation of plastics within riverine (e.g. sediment temporary sink) and accompanied terrestrial environments (e.g., floodplain storage for deposited plastics) has been proven in initial studies.

In contrast to other natural or anthropogenic pollutants, the approximate time since plastics and microplastic can be introduced into the environment starts in the 1950's with increasing global plastic production and consumption. A steady increase of possible plastic loads with the rising plastic production, probably decreasing with beginning environmental responsibility (approx. 2010 or beyond) leads to the fact, that plastic contents mainly occur in sediments and soils over a period of the last 70 years. This circumstance in connection with the general known sink function of soils and sediments, especially floodplains, nutrients as well as pollutants, allows the consideration of plastic deposits for dating purposes. As different dating methods reach their limits regarding comparatively young sediments, the connection between plastic deposition depth and temporal entry provides a basis for dating recent sediment layers. Possible detailed age differentiations in dependence on the identification of polymer types and additives, particle surface appearance (e.g., fresh/weathered) or spectroscopic criteria (e.g., surface weathering determination) are thinkable.

The opinion presented here, aims to address this new opportunity on the basis of own research findings within floodplains as well as other studies and highlights two main requirements: The first requirement for a sufficient dating implementation of plastic particles is the particle size: Detection and application for dating purposes is relatively easy to apply for macro- and mesoplastic particles (˃5 mm), due to size and less mobility in soils or sediments (e.g., plastic films embedded in sediment structure). In contrast for particles in the microplastic size class (˂ 5mm down to 1 µm) we recommend only the consideration of coarse microplastics (˃ 2mm) as smaller particles could easily shift in soils and sediments (e.g., bioturbation, preferential flow).  Additionally, the selection of a suitable sampling site as a second requirement depends on the appropriate localization within the floodplain area and surface morphology, sampling depth, flood history and anthropogenic influences.

Apart from the numerous potential environmental risks of plastics, their purely anthropogenic production and their respectively features, can turn them into a useful dating tool in river and floodplain sediments and thus enabling, besides the detection alone, a further application. This approach could also be transferred to marine or lacustrine sediments in future.

How to cite: Weber, C. J., Lechthaler, S., Stauch, G., and Opp, C.: Plastics and microplastics – A future marker to reconstruct floodplain chronology (Opinion), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-62, 2021.

EGU21-15883 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Historical record and sources of contaminants in sediments from Mar Menor coastal lagoon.

Irene Alorda-Montiel, Júlia Rodríguez-Puig, Aaron Alorda-Kleinglass, Marc Diego-Feliu, Valentí Rodellas, and Jordi Garcia-Orellana

Mar Menor (SE, Spain) is one of the largest coastal lagoons in the Mediterranean basin. Its ecological and economic significance has led to its inclusion in several protection programmes, both on a national and international level. In the last decades, this semiconfined habitat has been under high anthropogenic pressure from agricultural, mining and tourism activities, which have resulted in significant changes, such as eutrophic events and their cascading ecological effects. Previous research suggests that this degradation is linked to the introduction of nutrients and contaminants to this ecosystem, which are accumulated in the sediments of the lagoon. In this work, sediment cores from key locations of the Mar Menor were collected in order to estimate the amount of accumulated chemical compounds, such as metals and organic compounds. The results of this study are used to reconstruct the historical record of contaminants, which can fuel future contamination episodes in the lagoon.  

  

How to cite: Alorda-Montiel, I., Rodríguez-Puig, J., Alorda-Kleinglass, A., Diego-Feliu, M., Rodellas, V., and Garcia-Orellana, J.: Historical record and sources of contaminants in sediments from Mar Menor coastal lagoon., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15883, 2021.

EGU21-3232 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Integrated Simulation of Particle-Bound Contaminants in Urbanised Catchments Using High-Resolution Data

Karen L. Rojas-Gómez, Jakob Benisch, Julian D. Reyes-Silva, Renato Mariano, Soohyun Yang, Björn Helm, Dietrich Borchardt, and Peter Krebs

During heavy rainfall events, the large amounts of generated runoff in urban areas mobilise particulate matter from different surfaces. These particles have attached other contaminants such as heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and, faecal microorganisms. In urbanised areas, particle-bound contaminants (PBCs) may reach rivers through surface runoff, combined sewer overflows or storm water discharges. This may affect the water quality of receiving water bodies and creates health risks to humans and ecosystems. Due to the spatial variability of PBCs, associated to different land uses and pollution sources, the quantification and characterisation of contaminant pathways remain a challenge. Despite high investments, the implemented management alternatives to improve river water quality are still inefficient due to late identification of pressures and lack of a real paradigm shift towards holistic approaches. Therefore, it is necessary to better understand and describe the main factors controlling PBCs pathways in urban areas. This is expected to facilitate the selection of appropriate technologies and strategies to reduce the impact of urban discharges on receiving water bodies.

In this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of spatial and temporal variability of sediments and PBCs sources on river water quality in an urbanised catchment, considering land-use distribution within the sewersheds. This is expected to provide a better understanding of the relationship between drivers of relevant PBCs and the response of the urban water system under dynamic conditions (i.e. variable sediment load, urban runoff, storm water discharge and river flow). 

Data for this study is obtained from an integrated monitoring network in a small watershed (Lockwitzbach) located in Dresden, Germany. This urban observatory consists of four water quality monitoring stations within the stream and in the sewer network. High-resolution (1min) discharge and turbidity data are collected. This allows to understand the dynamic transport mechanisms of sediments in the catchment, providing insights in complex runoff and discharge processes.

Integrated simulation of sediments and PBCs (i.e. heavy metals) is done by using EPA SWMM to evaluate surface build-up and wash-off. Additionally, the impact of sedimentation, accumulation and re-suspension of sediments and heavy metals within the sewer network and river are analysed using a simplified block developed in Simba#. Calibration and validation of the integrated model was done using online monitoring data and water samples taken during the period 2018-2020. Turbidity was used as a proxy for total suspended solids and PBCs. We identified and prioritised urban areas that are hotspots for high sediment and PBCs loads. Those represent potential locations for an optimal control and reduction of water pollution strategies. Results suggest that integrated simulation is an effective approach to analyse transport mechanisms and pathways of sediments and PBCs within urbanised catchments. Furthermore, high-resolution discharge and turbidity data are especially useful to represent the wash-off of contaminants associated to the first flush process during rainfall events.

How to cite: Rojas-Gómez, K. L., Benisch, J., Reyes-Silva, J. D., Mariano, R., Yang, S., Helm, B., Borchardt, D., and Krebs, P.: Integrated Simulation of Particle-Bound Contaminants in Urbanised Catchments Using High-Resolution Data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3232, 2021.

Water and sediment are the main transport materials transported by rivers to the ocean, playing a crucial role in the evolution of river-delta-estuary-coast topography. Strong anthropogenic activities and climate change have led to distinct hydrological changes and geomorphological responses in river systems worldwide. However, previous studies usually considered the changes of streamflow and sediment load and the evolution of river channel and delta separately, and the understanding of the interactions between hydrological changes and geomorphological responses from the perspective of basin system integrity remains limited. In this study, using the Mann-Kendall trend test, normalized anomalies analyses and sediment budget analyses, the basin-wide streamflow and sediment load changes stretching from the headwater to the delta in the Yellow River basin (YRB) during 1956-2019 were examined, and the coupling relationships of water-sediment variations with channel erosion and delta evolution across the basin were explored. The results indicate that the streamflow and sediment load in the YRB decreased significantly over the past six decades except the headwater, and the decrease rate increased along the downstream continuum with the whole basin. However, the streamflow increased significantly and the sediment load tended to be gradually stabilizing since 2000. The reduction of sediment load mainly occurred in the middle-lower river downstream. The sediment yield coefficient in the middle reach decreased linearly with the reservoir capacity and exponentially with the vegetation coverage and number of check dams (p < 0.01), and the sediment reduction rate increased exponentially with the increase of terraces proportion, and gradually approached the limit value of 96.20% (p < 0.01). The ratio of sediment load at the outlet of the upper reach over that exporting from the middle reach was stable before 2000, but it increased and fluctuated sharply after 2000 as a result of ecological restoration campaign in the middle reach. The sediment load at the outlet of the middle basin was about 1.99 times of that transporting to the ocean before 2002, but their ratio decreased to be 0.69 after 2002 due to the operation of water-sediment regulation project. The construction of reservoirs gradually reduced the erosion in the headwater to near zero, and the river sediment deposition in the middle reach increased linearly with the reservoir capacity, whereas the sediment deposition in the lower reach depended on the sediment concentration exporting from the middle reach. The decreasing sediment supply also resulted in the gradual erosion of delta land since 2000 with combination of tidal waves. This study provides a synthesis of the relationships among water, sediment, channel and delta from the entire river system in the YRB, and it can shed light on integrated basin management adapting to anthropogenic activities and climate change.

How to cite: Yin, S., Gao, G., and Fu, B.: Interactions between hydrological changes and geomorphological responses in the Yellow River basin from the perspective of basin system integrity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4661, 2021.

EGU21-7423 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Sediment transfer in the Rhône River Basin, Switzerland: the role of localized severe Alpine storm events on triggering turbidity currents in Lake Geneva

François Mettra, Koen Blanckaert, Ulrich Lemmin, and David Andrew Barry

In Lake Geneva, a deep peri-Alpine lake in Switzerland, the sublacustrine Rhône River delta presents a deep canyon, the Rhône Canyon. Previous studies and recent observations show that low-velocity underflows and high-velocity turbidity currents pass frequently in the Rhône Canyon. The former carry little sediment, are long-lasting, slow moving and typically occur in winter when the lake is destratified, whereas the latter are sediment-rich, short-lived and occasionally generate high velocities. In the present study, we revisit three different event types that can trigger turbidity currents in the Rhône Canyon: large-scale floods of the Rhône River, sublacustrine slides on the Rhône delta and short high concentration sediment transport events induced by localized severe storms in the Rhône watershed (~5500 km2). Simultaneous observations of hyperconcentrated sediment-laden floods or debris flows in small sub-catchments (as small as 4 km2), suspended sediment concentration at the Rhône river mouth, and velocity profiles in the Rhône canyon demonstrate how localized storm events trigger turbidity currents in the canyon. Evidence that these turbidity currents can continue into the deep hypolimnion of Lake Geneva is provided. Preliminary estimations of the frequency of turbidity currents relative to their type of triggering and their contribution to the total sediment load discharged into Lake Geneva are discussed.

How to cite: Mettra, F., Blanckaert, K., Lemmin, U., and Barry, D. A.: Sediment transfer in the Rhône River Basin, Switzerland: the role of localized severe Alpine storm events on triggering turbidity currents in Lake Geneva, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7423, 2021.

EGU21-8890 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Nearfield development of the negatively buoyant Rhône River inflow into Lake Geneva as an interflow: suspended particulate matter and associated fluxes.

Violaine Piton, Frédéric Soulignac, Ulrich Lemmin, Graf Benjamin, Htet Kyi Wynn, and Andrew Barry

River inflows have a major influence on lake water quality through their input of sediments, nutrients and contaminants. It is therefore essential to determine their pathways, their mixing with ambient waters and the amount and type of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) they carry. Two field campaigns during the stratified period took place in Lake Geneva, Switzerland, in the vicinity of the Rhône River plume, at high and intermediate river discharge. Currents, water and sediment fluxes, temperature, turbidity and particle size distribution were measured along three circular transects located at 400, 800 and 1500 m in front of the river mouth. During the surveys, the lake was thermally stratified, the negatively buoyant Rhône River plume plunged and intruded into the metalimnion as an interflow and flowed out in the streamwise direction. Along the pathway, interflow core velocities, SPM concentrations and volumes of particles progressively decreased with the distance from the mouth (by 2-3 times), while interflow cross sections and plume volume increased by 2-3 times due to entrainment of ambient water. The characteristics of the river outflow determined the characteristics of the interflows: i.e. interflow fluxes and concentrations were the highest at high discharge. Both sediment settling and interflow dilution contributed to the observed decrease of sediment discharge with distance from the mouth. The particle size distribution of the interflow was dominated by fine particles (<32 μm), which were transported up to 1500 m away from the mouth and most likely beyond, while large particles (>62 μm) have almost completely settled out before reaching 1500 m. 

How to cite: Piton, V., Soulignac, F., Lemmin, U., Benjamin, G., Wynn, H. K., and Barry, A.: Nearfield development of the negatively buoyant Rhône River inflow into Lake Geneva as an interflow: suspended particulate matter and associated fluxes., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8890, 2021.

In an ongoing study to the decline in suspended sediment concentrations and loads in the Rhine river since the mid-1950s, the temporal changes in the power-law sediment rating curve parameters were examined. This revealed that the rating exponent of the rating curve increased substantially between the early and late 1980s. Until the early 1980s, the ratings curves were relatively flat with values of the rating exponent b varying around 0.2. In the mid-1980s, the exponent suddenly increased to a value between 0.4 and 0.6 and since then has remained within this range. This change in the rating exponent was mainly caused by a decrease in suspended sediment concentrations during low discharges. During high discharges, the suspended sediment concentration initially increased during the late 1980s, but this increase was nullified soon afterwards due to the declining trend in suspended sediment concentration.

The sudden increase of the rating exponent coincided with the period that the Ponto-Caspian Chelicorophium curvispinum (Caspian mud shrimp) invaded the Rhine river basin. This suggests that this suspension-feeder species bears the prime responsibility for this increase, although this hypothesis requires further independent evidence. The sudden increase in the rating exponent does however not manifest itself in the long-term gradual trend of declining suspended sediment concentrations and vice versa. Apparently, the sequestration of sediment by Chelicorophium curvispinum is only temporary: the suspended sediment sequestered during periods of relatively low discharges is likely remobilised again during periods of high discharge. This implies that the invasion of Chelicorophium curvispinum has not played a significant role in the decline of suspended sediment concentrations. The precise reasons for the gradual long-term decline in suspended sediment concentration remain yet unknown.

How to cite: van der Perk, M.: Impact of Chelicorophium curvispinum on the concentration-discharge response of suspended sediment in the Rhine River, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9199, 2021.

EGU21-7370 | vPICO presentations | HS9.2

Monitoring the effectiveness of connected ponds at fine sediment and phosphorus retention in a lowland agricultural stream

John Robotham, Gareth Old, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, David Sear, David Gasca-Tucker, Helena Soteriou, James Bishop, Ann Berkeley, David McKnight, and Joanne Old

Agricultural land is a key source of fine sediment and nutrients, often contributing significantly to diffuse pollution and catchment water quality issues. In the UK, recent efforts to mitigate agricultural diffuse pollution and reverse declines in the chemical and ecological status of waterbodies have focussed on catchment-based approaches. These nature-based solutions involve restoring, enhancing, or emulating natural processes to slow, store, and filter water and contaminants as they move through a catchment. Several studies in UK catchments show the potential benefits of retention ponds and constructed wetlands, however their functioning has been shown to vary according to their design and the catchment typology they are situated within.

To help further the evidence base on the effectiveness of ponds for mitigating diffuse agricultural pollution, we monitored a series of small, connected pond features (draining 0.3 km2 of slowly permeable clay soils) created as part of the Littlestock Brook Natural Flood Management (NFM) scheme. This lowland NFM scheme, situated in the headwaters of the River Thames basin (South East England), targets the issues of flooding and diffuse pollution, and is delivered through the Evenlode Catchment Partnership and Environment Agency as part of a five-year project (2016-2021).

Water and sediment sampling were undertaken during both baseflows and stormflows to determine retention of sediment and phosphorus species within the ponds under varying hydrological conditions. Results demonstrate that during small to moderate storm events, the ponds were able to capture run-off and reduce peak concentrations of suspended solids and particulate phosphorus. However, during large magnitude events, the ponds became inundated and resuspension of previously deposited sediment caused a net loss of material from the system. We estimate that the annual settling flux within the pond series is 16.48 tonnes (±5.77) for sediment, and ~0.014 tonnes for phosphorus. This equates to 17% (±6) of the annual suspended sediment load for the wider 3.4 km2 sub-catchment area. This study highlights the complexities of sediment dynamics in connected pond features and the importance of maintenance for retention efficiency.

How to cite: Robotham, J., Old, G., Rameshwaran, P., Sear, D., Gasca-Tucker, D., Soteriou, H., Bishop, J., Berkeley, A., McKnight, D., and Old, J.: Monitoring the effectiveness of connected ponds at fine sediment and phosphorus retention in a lowland agricultural stream, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7370, 2021.

HS9.3 – Measurement and monitoring techniques for sedimentary and hydro-morphological processes in open-water environments

EGU21-256 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

HIPPO – In situ device to monitor the remobilization process of fine sediments

Tim Kerlin, Mark Musall, Peter Oberle, and Franz Nestmann

Within the joint project Integrated Water Governance Support System (iWaGSS) funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF, reference numer: 02WGR1424C) the Institute of Water and River Basin Management (IWG) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) developed a benthic flume. The benthic flume HIPPO (Hydro-morphological Investigation of riverbed Particle Performance On-site) is an adjustable in situ device to reliably determine the start of erosion of fine sediments.

In advance 3D-CFD simulations have been carried out to optimize the components and the setup of the measurement system. The final product is primarily a benthic flume, which has a downwardly opened sampling area at the bottom and is placed on the river or reservoir bed. This underwater flow channel can be adapted to the local conditions with further components and is connected via a tube system to a measurement boat or raft. On the boat a pump creates a steady flow velocity in the system. The velocity in the benthic flume is gradually increased at fixed time intervals and is monitored using a built-in flow velocity meter (Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter). In addition the entire erosion process is recorded visually with video cameras. Also the turbidity of the water flowing through the system is continuously measured by a turbidity probe installed behind the pump. The amount of flow induced by the pump is controlled by a valve close to the end of the system. With the pump currently installed flow velocities of up to v = 0.8 m/s at the sampling area can be achieved, which is sufficient for the determination of the critical flow rate for erosion of most types of clay, silty and fine sandy sediments. During the process of erosion also the remobilization of fluid mud can be monitored. The critical flow velocity for the start of sediment transport is determined on the basis of the turbidity of the pumped water and data from the flow velocity probe and is verified using the camera system.

In addition to the critical threshold flow velocities, the critical bed shear stress is often required as input or evaluation variables for morhpodynamic numerical models. The conversion can be made, for example, using the quadratic velocity approach originally used in pipe hydraulics. The determination of the required resistance coefficient λ is based on the Moody Chart. However, it should be considered that this procedure entails some uncertainties with regard to the measurement system presented here. Still for cohesive sediments, the natural values measured in this way represent a significant added value compared to common estimates based on only partially known bed parameters, since factors such as vegetative cover, consolidation or even a developed biofilm can influence the timing of erosion. Especially against this background, possible effects of the change of hydraulics by the measuring system (geometry, velocity profile) seem to be small compared to the uncertainties of contemporary morphodynamic analyses.

How to cite: Kerlin, T., Musall, M., Oberle, P., and Nestmann, F.: HIPPO – In situ device to monitor the remobilization process of fine sediments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-256, 2021.

EGU21-331 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Estimation of Sediment Concentration in the Pearl River Estuary Based on Remote Sensing

Bowen Cao, Xiankun Yang, Junliang Qiu, Xuetong Xie, and Haitao Li

The estimation of Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) on the surface of the Pearl River is of great significance to the management of water and soil erosion and water quality in the Pearl River. Previous studies lack of measured reflectance data and enough field samples and the distribution of sediment-concentration field samples were uneven. In response to the above problems, we combined the sediment concentration data (proceed by filtered weighing method) collected on the spot, high-precision ground measured spectral data (obtained by ASD) with multi-source remote sensing satellite images (MODIS and Sentinel-2), employing simple linear regression model (single logarithmic transformation) and neural network learning algorithm to fit the relationship model between SSC and surface reflectance (Surface Reflectance, SR). The preliminary results showed that SSC and the surface SR based on the red band (wavelength=665 nm) had a stable correlation (R2>0.83), and the red band of Sentinel 2 was appropriate for the estimation of SSC. Compared with previous studies, this study synthesized higher-precision spectrum measured data and higher-resolution remote sensing satellite data to improve the estimation accuracy of SSC. In addition, based on the SSC model under study, we will couple long-time series of satellite data to explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of SSC in the Pearl River, so as to provide a reference for soil erosion monitoring and water resources management in the Pearl River Basin.

How to cite: Cao, B., Yang, X., Qiu, J., Xie, X., and Li, H.: Estimation of Sediment Concentration in the Pearl River Estuary Based on Remote Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-331, 2021.

EGU21-1603 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Dynamic development of sediment infiltration in an artificial river bed

Stefan Haun, Assem Mayar, Markus Noack, and Silke Wieprecht
The infiltration and accumulation of fine sediments in gravel-bed rivers leads to a reduction of the existing pore space and may lead in a worst case to a complete clogging of the river bed. To understand the highly dynamic process of sediment infiltration, measurements with high temporal and spatial resolution are required. Within this study, the development of sediment accumulations in an artificial river bed is investigated to gain further understanding on the  process of colmation. The artificial river bed, implemented in a research flume, is made of spheres with two different diameters and in different packing arrangements. Three sediment mixtures with different grain size distributions are supplied to observe the dynamic infiltration process, and to get information on the distribution over depth. In addition, supply rates and supply masses are varied during the experiments.
 
To observe the dynamic development of sediment accumulation, the gamma-ray attenuation method is used, which provides the opportunity of non-intrusive and undisturbed continuous measurements during the experiments at a certain position. Additionally, the accumulated sediment masses are obtained right after the supply of sediments and 28 minutes later, with a high vertical resolution to detect changes as result of consolidation within the pores.
 
From the measured amount of infiltrated sediments can be seen that the accumulated sediment mass is strongly particle size-dependent. The measurements of the fine sediment mixture show that the filling started from the bottom until the accumulation reach the surface of the artificial river bed. The experiments with the coarse sediment mixture resulted in a clogging layer in the upper section of the river bed, and subsequently less sediments reached the flume bed. By varying the supply rate, it can be seen that a higher supply rate leads to an earlier start of the infiltration and a rapid filling, while the lower supply rate resulted in a later infiltration and slow filling process. The measurements 28 minutes after the end of the experiments show, in addition, that dynamic changes happen mainly in the upper layers due to the washing of surface sediments by the flow, and only to a smaller extent by further settlements due to solidification within the pores. The feeding mass itself has no considerable effect on the infiltration behavior of the current setup, as once the pores are filled, almost no additional particles penetrate the bed.
 
The use of a high sophisticated measurement method made it possible to investigate the infiltration process of sediments in an artificial river bed with high temporal and spatial resolution. Due to the use of different sediment mixtures, and different supply conditions, further insight on the process of fine sediment infiltration could be gained within this study.

 

How to cite: Haun, S., Mayar, A., Noack, M., and Wieprecht, S.: Dynamic development of sediment infiltration in an artificial river bed, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1603, 2021.

EGU21-2078 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Controlled experiments and finite element simulations with the Swiss plate geophone bedload monitoring system: particle size identification and transport mode

Zheng Chen, Siming He, Tobias Nicollier, Lorenz Ammann, Alexandre Badoux, and Dieter Rickenmann

The Swiss plate geophone (SPG) system is an indirect bedload transport monitoring device that records the acoustic signals generated by bedload particle impacts, with the goal to derive the bedload flux and grain size distribution. Particle drop experiments with quartz spheres in quiescent water in a flume setting were performed to investigate the dynamic signal response of the SPG system impacted by particle-like objects varying in size and impact location. Systematic flume experiments with natural bedload particles in flowing water were conducted to study the effects of impact angle and transport mode (saltating, rolling and sliding) on the SPG signals. For each impact caused by a single particle, the number of signal impulses, the amplitude, the positive area surrounded by the signal envelope, and the centroid frequency were extracted from the raw geophone monitoring data. The finite element method (FEM) was used to construct a virtual model of the SPG system and to determine the propagation characteristics of the numerical stress wave in the material structure. The experimental and numerical results showed a qualitative and partially quantitative agreement in the changes of the signal impulses, the amplitude, and the envelope area with increasing colliding sphere size. The centroid frequencies of the SPG vibrations showed qualitatively similar dependencies with increasing particle size as some field measurements for the coarser part of the investigated range of impact sizes. The effects of variable particle impact velocities and impact locations on the geophone plate were also investigated by drop experiments and compared to FEM simulations. In addition, the signal response for different bedload transport modes and varying impact angles were explored. In summary, the FEM simulations contribute to the understanding of the signal response of the SPG system and the findings in this study may eventually result in improving the bedload grain size classification and transport mode recognition.

How to cite: Chen, Z., He, S., Nicollier, T., Ammann, L., Badoux, A., and Rickenmann, D.: Controlled experiments and finite element simulations with the Swiss plate geophone bedload monitoring system: particle size identification and transport mode, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2078, 2021.

EGU21-2989 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Temporal variability of annual suspended sediment yield estimates and their uncertainties

Aron Slabon and Thomas Hoffmann

Suspended sediment contributes to the vast majority of the annual sediment load transported by rivers to the global oceans. At the same time, this large fraction is transported just in a fraction of time. Towards achieving sustainable sediment management and healthy fluvial systems, identifying the impact of the temporal variability on annual load estimates becomes indispensable in order to reduce uncertainties.

We aim to estimate the temporal variability of suspended sediment transport and the uncertainty of annual suspended sediment loads. Our approach is based on high-resolution time series (15 min sampling interval) of discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) at four monitoring stations with different degrees of discharge variability. The quantification of the variability of discharge and sediment yield is achieved through the exceedance time. The uncertainty of the annual sediment load is estimated using a bootstrap approach. We assess the impact of the sampling interval and link the optimal sampling interval to different SSC-variability. Further, the impact of rating parameters on the uncertainty of annual loads is investigated.

Our results indicate an increase in SSC-variability with decreasing discharge, leading to a negative relationship with the contributing catchment area. The 80 % exceedance times for the annual sediment load range from less than 10 % for the river Ammer (catchment area 608 km²) between 10 – 20 % for the rivers Ilz (765 km²) and Moselle (27 088 km²) to more than 40 % for the river Rhine (109 806 km²). Simultaneously, the variability increases with a decrease in sampling frequency. Our preliminary results indicate a negative exponential relationship between exceedance time and uncertainties in annual load estimates. This relationship can be used to estimate the uncertainty of annual loads estimated based on low frequency sediment sampling at the continental to global scale.

How to cite: Slabon, A. and Hoffmann, T.: Temporal variability of annual suspended sediment yield estimates and their uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2989, 2021.

EGU21-3860 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Using Electric Resistivity Tomography and Borehole Logs to Detect Sedimentation Changes in a Gravel-Bed Ephemeral Channel

Marcos A. Martínez-Segura, Carmelo Conesa-García, Pedro Pérez-Cutillas, and Marco D. Vásconez-Maza

Differences in deposit geometry and texture with depth along ephemeral gravel-bed streams strongly reflect fluctuations in bedload, which occur due to environmental changes at the basin scale and morphological channel adjustments. In this study, non-destructive methods, 2D and 3D electrical resistivity tomography(ERT), have been combined with datasets from borehole logs to identify, quantify and analyze the internal geometry of cross-sections of the gravel-bed ephemeral channel, known as Azohía Rambla (southeastern Spain). The electrical survey was performed through longitudinal and transverse profiles in two channel reaches, upper and middle stretches. Both profiles utilized 28 stainless steel electrodes reaching 14-30 m in length and an investigation depth of 3-5 m, approximately. Electrical resistivity values were correlated with data obtained from the samples collected from borehole logs (e.g. sediment strength, grain size distribution, compaction, porosity (ϕ), and hydraulic conductivity (k)). To determine ϕ and K granulometric and morphometric variables, such as shape-sphericity indices, particle sorting, effective grain-sizes and void ratios, were used.

The alluvial channel-fills showed the superposition of four layers with uneven thickness and arrangement: 1) a lower sandy-gravel body, scarcely thick, characterized by moderate resistivity (150-500 Ω · m); 2) a thicker intermediate layer, with moderate to high resistivity values (500 to 1600 Ω · m); and 3) an upper set composed of coarse gravel and supported matrix, ranging from 1600 to 3000 Ω · m, and a narrow subsurface layer, the most resistive (> 3000 Ω · m), corresponding to the most recent armored deposits (gravel and pebbles). Consequently, the ERT results coupled with borehole data suggest that since the channel entrenchment in the Miocene marl substrate, different pulses of vertical sedimentary accretion were produced, denoting a general trend to increase in grain-size (coarsening-upwards) and hydraulic conductivity towards the top of the sedimentary sequence. This research was funded by ERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities—State Research Agency/Project CGL2017-84625-C2-1-R; State Program for Research, Development and Innovation Focused on the Challenges of Society.

How to cite: Martínez-Segura, M. A., Conesa-García, C., Pérez-Cutillas, P., and Vásconez-Maza, M. D.: Using Electric Resistivity Tomography and Borehole Logs to Detect Sedimentation Changes in a Gravel-Bed Ephemeral Channel, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3860, 2021.

EGU21-3983 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Total and fractional bedload transport in alpine streams approximated by different surrogate measurement systems

Lorenz Ammann, Tobias Nicollier, Alexandre Badoux, and Dieter Rickenmann

Knowledge about bedload transport in rivers is of high importance for many hydraulic engineering applications, in particular related to flood protection measures. Passive acoustic surrogate measurement techniques provide useful continuous estimates of bedload transport in terms of total mass, as well as for different grain-size classes.

We compare different surrogate measurement systems regarding their performance in quantifying total and fractional bedload transport in three alpine streams. The investigated measurement systems are the well-established Swiss plate geophone (SPG), an equivalent system in which the geophone sensor is replaced by an accelerometer sensor, and the miniplate accelerometer (MPA) system. The latter is a more recent device and consists of four small square metal plates embedded in elastomere elements. While the signal recorded with the SPG is known to be proportional to the transported bedload mass, we find that the MPA-signal shows a non-linear dependency. In addition, the MPA reacts more sensitively to small grain size classes than the other two systems, indicating a possible alternative to improve the quantification of bedload transport consisting of those classes.

Based on the raw signal recorded with the SPG and the MPA in a flume experiment, we test the ability of different empirical models to predict the known weight of the impacting particle. We show that it is possible to identify the particle weight with high accuracy with relatively simple models using data of either of the two measurement systems. One remaining challenge is to account for the site-to-site variability in the (amount of) signal caused by the combination of differing numbers of plates in the measurement setup and the lateral transmission of the signal across multiple plates, especially for the SPG system.

How to cite: Ammann, L., Nicollier, T., Badoux, A., and Rickenmann, D.: Total and fractional bedload transport in alpine streams approximated by different surrogate measurement systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3983, 2021.

EGU21-4425 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

A methodical approach to analyze the effect of river morphology and hydrology on fish fauna in the inner-Alpine space

Katja Schmölz, Agnes Felber, Wolfgang Mark, Melanie Thaler, Josef Wieser, Simone Persiano, Giacomo Bertoldi, and Erich Tasser

River ecosystems are diverse and dynamic habitats which are strongly influenced by direct and indirect consequences of human interventions. Several initiatives have been started all over Europe to fulfill the European guidelines for the protection of the local water bodies, but a standardized procedure fulfilling all relevant aspects and parameters of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) does not exists. To evaluate water quality, the WFD predefines biotic and abiotic parameters, such as morphology, hydrology, water chemistry as well as biological quality components, including fish fauna. In this context, we propose a new methodological approach based on salmonid fish populations to assess river quality. Our approach is based on European standardization of the Austrian and Italian methods and it has been tested in the context of an international fish project in 81 stream sections in the European Alps, having homogeneous morphological characteristics. The assessment procedure is composed of a set of 11 indicators, which were selected to evaluate longitudinal and lateral morphological and hydrological conditions: stream passability, reproduction sites, riverine dynamic, shoreline, shoreline vegetation, structure, substrate and degree of hydrological disturbance, a descent speed indicator as well as discharge conditions of hydropeaking. The indicators were then combined to 3 indices, namely: morphology index (IM), hydrology index (IH) and hydromorphology index (IHM), to create a holistic picture of the total stream conditions. The indicator and index definition, the compilation and practical testing of the data entry form in the field, as well as the calculation of the values, were carried out jointly by a team of experts. The combination of that created a new hydromorphology index (IHM) for Alpine streams. The application of the proposed method was shown in 31 river streams in South Tyrol (Italy) and Tyrol (Austria) covering a wide range of different anthropogenic changes and pressure degree, which enabled the trial of the methodology and the refinement of the indicators and indices. The outcomes of our study lead to interesting insights regarding applicability, strengths and weaknesses of the proposed approach.

How to cite: Schmölz, K., Felber, A., Mark, W., Thaler, M., Wieser, J., Persiano, S., Bertoldi, G., and Tasser, E.: A methodical approach to analyze the effect of river morphology and hydrology on fish fauna in the inner-Alpine space, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4425, 2021.

EGU21-5893 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Comparative overview of reservoir siltation assessment techniques depending on the type of sediment

Stephan Hilgert, Klajdi Sotiri, and Stephan Fuchs

Over many decades it has become evident, that sediment accumulation threatens the fundamental operation of reservoirs by reducing the storage volume, hindering technical functions and deteriorating water quality over time. Most scientists, operators and authorities are aware of this, often “silent” but enduring process. However, not often mitigation measures are applied with foresight and in an appropriate manner according to this global problem. One fundamental reason for the often hesitant implementation of measures is the lack of precise and applicable assessment techniques. The type of reservoir, available historic data and especially the composition of the sediment may allow only for one available method to be applied successfully. In this study we present a workflow to select the best available method to detect the sediment thickness correctly. We compare topographic differencing, dual-frequency echo sounding, sub-bottom echo sounding, free-fall penetrometer measurements and sediment coring. Next to the general applicability, the precision (vertical resolution) and the time requirement for the measurement are relevant factors. A special point of discussion is the presence of free gas inside the sediment, often creating measurement errors, leading to underestimation of the sediment thickness.

How to cite: Hilgert, S., Sotiri, K., and Fuchs, S.: Comparative overview of reservoir siltation assessment techniques depending on the type of sediment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5893, 2021.

EGU21-6103 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Erodibility of fine sediment deposits in gravel bed rivers: investigation of the spatial variability

Hanna Haddad, Magali Jodeau, Germain Antoine, and Cédric Legoût

Fine sediments exhibit various stages of deposition and erosion during their transport from hillslopes to the ocean. In mountainous environments, high fine sediment load during runoff or dam flushing events can lead to important amounts of deposits in gravel bed rivers. Massive deposits may lead to bar elevation, riparian vegetation growth and consequently to bar stabilization, which can increase flood risks. High amount of fine sediment deposits alters also aquatic life and habitat.

In order to better understand the dynamics of re-suspension of these deposits, and to accurately predict it with numerical modelling, field monitoring campaigns were performed to assess both the spatial variability and the controlling factors of the erodibility of fine deposits. The cohesive strength-meter (CSM) device, a pocket penetrometer and a pocket shear vane were used to evaluate the erodibility of fine sediments deposited in two rivers in the French Alps: The Isère and Galabre.

The results highlight the specificity of gravel bed rivers with an abundance of areas of deposition of fine sediments, which are discontinuous compared to estuaries and lowland rivers. A high spatial variability of the erodibility was observed and related to the spatial organization of the deposits. The location of the deposit and its elevation, the moisture and the grain sizes are inter-related and have important correlations with the erodibility. Measurements show that high altitude dry deposits and low altitude humid deposits are more easily eroded than intermediate deposits with medium moisture. The measured variables explain part of the variability of the erodibility but other processes such as the history or the origin of the deposit might also be important factors to consider.

How to cite: Haddad, H., Jodeau, M., Antoine, G., and Legoût, C.: Erodibility of fine sediment deposits in gravel bed rivers: investigation of the spatial variability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6103, 2021.

EGU21-7610 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Turbidity sensor response to seasonal and spatial variability of suspended particle composition in open clear waters –(Portuguese continental shelf)

Anabela Oliveira, Ana Isabel Santos, Rita Santos, and Nuno Zacarias

As part of AQUIMAR project (MAR2020 nº MAR-02.01.01-FEAMP-017 – AQUIMAR – Caraterização geral das áreas aquícolas para estabelecimento de culturas marinhas), intensive CTD surveys and turbidity/concentration data were collected in four cruises along the Portuguese continental shelf (30-200m depth), in 5 aquaculture areas from 2018 to 2020. In-situ calibration of the turbidity sensor (Seapoint Turbidity Meter) was done using the traditional gravimetric method of suspended sediments concentration (SSC) determination with water sampling and filtering. The obtained FTU/SSC relations resulted in correlations in the order of R2=70-80% for all considered surveys.

Measured turbidity and concentration values, were generally very low (<2 FTU and <2 mg/l) for all measuring periods, however variations of the FTU/SSC sensitivity between the different areas indicate that significant variations of suspended matter composition exist throughout the Portuguese continental shelf.

This study aims to understand the seasonal and spatial variations of the turbidity signal sensitivity to SSC. To this end, a closer look will be given to samples collected during two contrasting seasonal periods (spring and late autumn 2019), as well as to the general water column structure at the time of the sample collection. Additionally, results from X-Ray diffraction analysis performed in some of the filtered samples will be used to better understand the variations of the suspended sediment composition in open clear waters. The mineralogical signal shows a dominance of clay minerals in suspension (mean 83%) and calcite (mean 10%), reflecting the detritic and organic fraction of SSC, respectively.

How to cite: Oliveira, A., Santos, A. I., Santos, R., and Zacarias, N.: Turbidity sensor response to seasonal and spatial variability of suspended particle composition in open clear waters –(Portuguese continental shelf), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7610, 2021.

EGU21-8112 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Turbulent Flow Structure around a Horizontal Circular Cylinder Placed on a Rough Bed

prashanth hanmaiahgari and kalpana devi

Pipelines that traverse a river are often buried beneath the river bed. However, the pipeline may be exposed due to scoured riverbed during floods. The exposed pipeline vibrates in a frequency band depending upon the flow velocity, size, and shape of the pipe. These vibrations are detrimental to the pipeline safety and stability due to their cyclic nature. In fact, these vibrations are induced by the turbulence around the cylinder which is a function of the flow velocity apart from the diameter of the cylinder and the bed roughness. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the structure of turbulent flow in the recirculation, reattachment and recovery regions behind a horizontal circular cylinder placed on the rough bed. In this direction, different experiments were conducted in a wide flume for various flow Reynolds numbers and cylinder Reynolds numbers. The Acoustic Doppler Velocimetry (ADV) was used for measuring the instantaneous point velocities. The raw velocity data were properly processed before the analysis. The approach flow was found to be a canonical near wall turbulent flow. In the immediate downstream of the cylinder, flow is characterized by recirculation, boundary layer reattachment and recovery. The reattachment length was determined using the established forward fraction method and reattachment length is independent of the flow Reynolds number. In addition, enhanced turbulence intensities, Reynolds shear stress, and turbulent kinetic energy were observed in the separated shear layer and they rapidly decreased in the recovery region. The present investigation will boost the understanding of hydraulics of flow around the horizontal bed-mounted cylindrical objects in rough bed natural streams under different flow conditions.

Keywords: Wall mounted horizontal cylinder; Boundary layer; Separated and reattached turbulent flows; Wall Wake flows; ADV; Open channel flow.

How to cite: hanmaiahgari, P. and devi, K.: Turbulent Flow Structure around a Horizontal Circular Cylinder Placed on a Rough Bed, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8112, 2021.

EGU21-9721 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

An affordable and reliable device for direct bed shear stress measurements
not presented

Stephan Niewerth, Francisco Núñez-González, and Toni Llull

The entrainment and transport of sediment by hydrodynamic mechanisms is strongly related to bed shear stress exerted by flow. Therefore, to quantify sediment transport and to determine sediment incipient motion conditions, accurate estimations of bed shear stress are required. Most of the existing methods used in hydraulics and river engineering to determine bed shear stress are indirect, and are mostly restricted to limited flow conditions or contain a large degree of uncertainty. Although devices to perform direct measurements of boundary shear stress exist, they are normally based on expensive technology. We developed a shear plate for direct shear stress measurements, using relatively low cost components. In this work we present preliminary results of measurements performed with the new shear plate, to characterize the bottom shear stress generated by a ship propeller. The data result in the expected quadratic relation between bed shear stress and jet velocities, and also give evidence of a good reproducibility. We show that the new shear plate appears to be a promising device for reliable measurements of submerged boundary shear stress under a wide range of environments and flow conditions.

How to cite: Niewerth, S., Núñez-González, F., and Llull, T.: An affordable and reliable device for direct bed shear stress measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9721, 2021.

EGU21-9822 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Development of Model for Acoustic Noise Generated from Bedload in Rivers 

Mohamad Nasr, Thomas Geay, Sébastien Zanker, and Recking Alain

Quantifying bedload transport is important for many applications such as river management and hydraulic structures protection. Bedload flux measurements can be achieved using physical sampler methods. However, these methods are expensive, time-consuming, and difficult to operate during high discharge events. Besides, these methods do not permit to capture the spatial and temporal variability of bedload transport flux. Recently, alternative measuring technologies have been developed to continuously monitor bedload flux and grain size distribution using passive or active sensors. Among them, the hydrophone was used to monitor bedload transport by recording the sounds generated by bedload particles colliding on the river bed (referred as self-generated noise SGN). The acoustic power of SGN was correlated with bedload flux in field experiments. To better understand these experimental results and to estimate measurement uncertainties, we developed a theoretical model to simulate the SGN. The model computes an estimation of the power spectral density (PSD)by considering the contribution of all signals generated by impacts between bedload particles and the riverbed, and accounting for the attenuation of the acoustic signal between the source and the hydrophone position due to river propagation effects,. In this model, we

The energy of acoustic noise generated from the collision between two particles is mainly dependent on the transported particles' diameter and the impact velocity. We tested different empirical formulas for the estimation of the number of impact (impact rate) and the impact velocity depending on particle size and hydraulic conditions. To characterize the acoustic power losses as a function of distance and frequency, we used an attenuation function which was experimentally calibrated for different French rivers.

We tested the model on a field dataset comprising acoustic and bedload flux measurements. The results indicate that the PSD model allows estimating acoustic power (in between a range of one order of magnitude) for most of the rivers considered.  The model sensitivity was evaluated. In particular, we observed that it is very sensitive to the empirical formulas used to determine the impact rate and impact speed. In addition, special attention should be kept in mind on the assumption of the grain size distribution of riverbed which can generate large variability in some rivers particularly in rivers with a significant sand fraction.

How to cite: Nasr, M., Geay, T., Zanker, S., and Alain, R.: Development of Model for Acoustic Noise Generated from Bedload in Rivers , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9822, 2021.

EGU21-9884 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Sediment size and shape observation in a mountain river, southern Brazil

Danrlei Menezes and Masato Kobiyama

The aim of the present study was to characterize the size and shape of sediments along a reach of a mountain river in Maquiné municipality, southern Brazil, to establish an efficient methodology in river sediments analysis. In Brazil, this might be a pioneering study of mountain rivers characterized by the presence of gravel, cobble, and boulders sediments. The study catchment, covered by Dense and Mixed Rain Forest and high-altitude grasslands (Campos de Cima da Serra), has an altitude difference of 900 m. Its geology is characterized by the Serra Geral Formation (basaltic rocks) and pedology by Cambisols and Neossols. The mean annual rainfall is 1200 mm. According to the Köppen classification, the regional climate is humid subtropical with hot summers (Cfa) in lower areas and humid subtropical with mild summers and cold winters (Cfb) in higher areas. The catchment outlet has a fluviometric station, and at its headwater, there is a rainfall gauge, both of which perform automatic measurements every 10 min. For the bed sediments diameter analysis, 500 grains were sampled, following the Wolman Pebble Count methodology. The measurements were carried out along the same reach (100 m) in five stages (December 2019; February, May, August, and November 2020) to observe sediment dynamics over time. During these measurements, the mean values of water depth and discharge were 0.4 m and 0.8 m³/s, respectively. To determine the size and shape, the three axes A (longest), B (intermediate), and C (shortest) were measured by using the tree caliper. With the axes’ values, the sediment shape was classified into four types: sphere, rod, disc, and blade. Linear correlation and multiple regression analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of each sediment axis on determining the nominal diameter (Dn). The mean values of Dmax, D90, D84, D50, D16, and D10 of all the sampled sediments were 290.61, 114.40, 103.52, 56.27, 35.89, 28.0, and 18.40, respectively. Preliminary results indicate that 38% of the sampled sediments corresponded to the disc format and did not vary over the year. The characteristic diameters remained constant throughout the monitoring period, even though strong rainfall-runoff events sometimes occurred (~ maximum runoff was 33 m²/s in July 2020). The Dn values calculated with the multiple regression model based on the analysis of the axes (Dn = f (A, B, f (A, B))) were very close (R² = 0.95) to those calculated through an original definition of Dn, i.e., Dn = (A·B·C)1/3. During the monitoring period, notable changes in the size and shape of the sediments were not observed. The axes analysis confirms that the Dn value can be estimated only with the measurement of axes A and B, without axis C. Therefore, this methodology (without the axis C) may be recommended to characterize the size and shape of bed sediments in mountain rivers. Finally, the present study highlights the importance of fieldwork to advance basic river sciences in Brazil.

How to cite: Menezes, D. and Kobiyama, M.: Sediment size and shape observation in a mountain river, southern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9884, 2021.

EGU21-10888 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Average Quantifying the snowmelt dominant river erosion in Afghanistan between 2004-2020

Abdul Basir Mahmoodzada, Divyesh Varade, Sawahiko Shimada, Hiromu Okazawa, and Chembolu Vinay

Flooding of rivers is one of the major causes of soil erosion leading to significant changes in the geomorphological environment. Particularly, in countries such as Afghanistan, where the transboundary are designated according to the Amu River shorelines, are significantly affected by riverbank erosions. Amu River is driven by streamflow from the Pir Pranjal ranges of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Numerical analysis of the river flow dynamics in such regions is subject to the scarce data availability on ground stations. Thus, ERA5 Reanalysis data provides a significant means for the temporal analysis of the geomorphological changes in such multi-national watersheds.

In this study, we propose a framework to quantify the Amu riverbank erosion in the Kaldar District of the Balkh Province of Afghanistan. The proposed framework is based on establishing an empirical relationship between the riverbank erosion area based on the discharge intensity and the specific stream power. To determine these two parameters, the river discharge is modeled using the ERA5 Reanalysis hydrological parameters based on multivariate regression. The river width is determined using the Normalized Difference Water Index-based (NDWI) derived from the Landsat-7 and Landsat-8 datasets. The riverbank erosion area is determined using shoreline analysis carried out using these datasets. The shoreline analysis indicates that Afghanistan is losing precious land due to the riverbank erosion over the past two decades (2004-20) amounting to as much as 86 sq. km and on average 5.4 sq. km every year. According to the ERA5 Reanalysis data, the water contribution from snowmelt in the spring and the summer was significantly dominant compared to the precipitation, which is consistent with several other watersheds in the north-western Himalayas. The river width and the discharge are observed to follow a power-law relation with an r2 of 0.7. Additionally, the discharge intensity and the specific stream power showed significant relation (r2 of 0.84 both) corresponding to the riverbank erosion area, where the peak flood events were observed to be outliers.

How to cite: Mahmoodzada, A. B., Varade, D., Shimada, S., Okazawa, H., and Vinay, C.: Average Quantifying the snowmelt dominant river erosion in Afghanistan between 2004-2020, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10888, 2021.

EGU21-12317 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Inferring suspended sediment carbon content and particle size at high frequency from the optical response of a submerged spectrometer 

Dhruv Sehgal, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Christophe Hissler, Victor Bense, and AJF (Ton) Hoitink

Manual and unattended sampling in the field and laboratory analysis are common practices to measure suspended sediment (SS) carbon content and particle size. However, one of the major drawbacks of these ex-situ methods is that they make high frequency measurements challenging. This includes restricted data collection due to limited access to the sampling locations during turbulent conditions or high flows, when the largest amount of sediments is transported downstream, introducing uncertainty in quantification of SS properties (particle size and carbon content) and sediment loads. Knowledge on SS carbon content and particle size is also important to better understand the multi-component form of suspended sediments (i.e. flocs) that directly affect sediment transport and other sediment properties (e.g. settling velocity and density). Moreover, SS carbon content and particle size exert an impact on the optical sensor readings that are traditionally used to measure turbidity. In that respect, high frequency measurements of SS carbon content and particle size could eventually help us to move from ‘local’ calibrations towards ‘global’ dependencies based on in-situ SS characterization.

In this study, we propose to use a submerged UV-VIS spectrometer to infer SS carbon content and particle size. The sensor measures the entire light absorption spectrum of water between 200 nm and 750 nm at sampling intervals as short as 2-minutes. To this end, we first test our approach under controlled conditions with an experimental laboratory setup consisting of a cylindrical tank (40-L) with an open top. An UV-VIS spectrometer and a LISST-200X sensor (to measure particle size distribution) are installed horizontally. A stirrer facilitates the homogeneous mixing of SS and prevents the settling of heavy particles at the bottom. We use the sediments sampled from 6 sites in Luxembourg with contrasting composition and representing different land use types and geological settings. The sampled sediments were wet sieved into 3 size classes to clearly recognize the effect of particle size on absorption. In our investigation, we use specific wavelengths, chemometric techniques and carbon content specific absorbance indices to infer SS composition and particle size from the absorption spectrum. Results are then validated using in-situ field data from two instrumented field sites in Luxembourg. Amid the challenge of associating laboratory and field results, the preliminary results indicate that the absorption spectrum measured with a submerged UV-VIS spectrometer can be used to estimate SS particle size and carbon content.

How to cite: Sehgal, D., Martínez-Carreras, N., Hissler, C., Bense, V., and Hoitink, A. (.: Inferring suspended sediment carbon content and particle size at high frequency from the optical response of a submerged spectrometer , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12317, 2021.

EGU21-13022 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Investigating suspended particulate matters from multi-wavelength optical and multi-frequency acoustic measurements

Duc Tran, Matthias Jacquet, Stuart Pearson, and Romaric Verney

Long term and high-frequency monitoring of water quality, particularly the suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration are crucial to decipher the health and sustainable development of marine ecosystems. However, in-situ measurements based on indirect optical or acoustic techniques are often associated with large uncertainties due to the dynamics of natural SPM, especially throughout the land-sea continuum. Therefore, this study aims to improve the accuracy of long term in-situ measurements by quantitatively elucidating the physical mechanisms by which sand and fine sediment respond to multi-wavelength optical and multi-frequency acoustic signals. We hypothesize that whilst fine sediment is very sensitive to optical signals, the coarser particles are more sensitive to acoustic signals, and vice versa. We further hypothesize that the SPM compositions and variability can be differentiated and derived based on such sensitivities and differences in behaviors of sand and fine sediment under different types of signals, i.e., optical and acoustic. 

Before testing the hypotheses, a novel laboratory device that is capable of 1) generating homogeneous suspended concentration and 2) providing sufficient space for multiple sensors to operate simultaneously must be developed. The new device, DEXMES (dispositive experimental de quantification des matières en suspension), primarily consists of two main components. The upper part is a cylindrical tank with an inner diameter of 0.96 m and 1.4 m high. To break up the large vortexes and mitigate the vortex-induced bubbles (e.g., generated by the impeller), four baffles with dimensions of 0.09 x 1.31 m are evenly attached to the inner side of the tank. The bottom part of the DEXMES device is a convex, elliptical Plexiglas bed. Turbulent flow is generated by an impeller with a diameter of 0.36 m placed approximately 1 m below the water surface. The speed of the impeller, ranging from 0 to 235 rpm, is regulated by a controller box.

To test the hypotheses, 30 experiments, consisting of 6 concentrations and 5 mixture ratios (by mass) of Bentonite and fine sand (d50 = 100 µm), i.e., 100/0, 75/25, 50/50, 25/75, and 0/100, were thoroughly investigated using three acoustic sensors (ADV, AQUAscat, LISST-ABS) and three optical sensors (Wetlabs, HydroScat, LISST-100X). On average, each data point is the averaged value of 10 min of recording at 1 or 32 Hz. First, results show logarithmic/linear relationships between concentration and acoustic/optical signals respectively for a given bentonite/sand. Second, the slope of this relation is a function of the Bentonite/sand ratio. Third, the results confirm the hypotheses that coarser particles are more sensitive to acoustic signals and fine sediment is more sensitive to optical signals. Simple regression models were developed for different pairs of acoustic and optical sensors based on their relative sensitivity to SPM characteristics. The correlation coefficient, bias, and RMSE between observed and predicted concentrations then were examined. The results also show that it is possible to use a combination of one acoustic and one optical sensor to infer the concentration and the ratio of fine/coarse sediment in suspension with minimum use of water samples calibration.

How to cite: Tran, D., Jacquet, M., Pearson, S., and Verney, R.: Investigating suspended particulate matters from multi-wavelength optical and multi-frequency acoustic measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13022, 2021.

EGU21-14262 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Artificial neural networks for clustering sediment grains in microphotographs.

Viktor Golikov, Mikhail Krinitskiy, and Dmitry Borisov

Paleoreconstruction is a group of methods for evaluating geophysical parameters based on indirect indicators, such as the chemical composition of foraminiferal shells, the concentration of various gases in sedimentary grains on the ocean floor, etc. For example, with the distribution of types and sizes of foraminifera or sizes and shapes of crystals of various minerals in sediment deposits, one may reconstruct the temperature and salinity of water and even the direction and speed of currents. A number of methods are used to explore sediment particle composition nowadays: examining color characteristics, physical properties of grains, their isotopic composition, etc. However, the visual examination of sedimentary particles under a microscope remains one of the most exploited methods. In our study, we consider sediments' fraction of size from 100 microns under an 80x microscope. Our study aims to infer the distribution of sizes and shapes of the grains in a sediments sample. However, the problem we face is that it takes a great time and effort of an expert to classify the particles. In our study, we propose to employ artificial intelligence methods for automating this task. We collect optical imagery of prepared sediment samples. Using the images, we collect visual representations of different grains of sediments. We propose using a version of convolutional variational autoencoder for reducing the dimensionality of the visual representations. Then we apply a clustering algorithm for splitting the grains into groups of similar ones. An expert examines the groups for further classification.

In this work, we will demonstrate the preliminary results of the clustering of sedimentary particles and outline further development of the presented method for their automated classification.

The work is supported by the Russian State assignment no. 0149-2019-0007

How to cite: Golikov, V., Krinitskiy, M., and Borisov, D.: Artificial neural networks for clustering sediment grains in microphotographs., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14262, 2021.

The capability of ADVs (Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters) to estimate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been widely investigated using commercial glass microspheres of the same size or well-sorted fractions in experimental studies. In the natural environment, sediment samples may be composed of different types of sediments having various types of grain size distribution.

This study aims to analyze experimentally the effect of clay ratio in sediment content on acoustic response. Modification of scattering and attenuation characteristics for different clay ratios is evaluated theoretically. In laboratory experiments, four different sediment mixtures constituting non-cohesive sand and cohesive clay materials were prepared with clay ratios of 0, 5, 10 and 15% by dry mass. A-10 MHz acoustic Doppler velocity profiler (ADVP, The Nortek Vectrino Profiler) was used in controlled laboratory environments under a wide range of concentration conditions up to 10 g/L. Acoustic backscatter measurements were made by immersing the ADVP in a well-mixed circulation tank filled with mixtures with known concentration and sediment composition. The backscattered signals were recorded at 100 Hz, from which 1.5-min ensemble averages were obtained. For each sediment mixture, calibration curves representing the relationship between SSC and acoustic backscatter were obtained based on the sonar equation. Acoustic estimates of suspended sediment parameters obtained for mixtures with different clay contents are compared to identify the effect of increasing clay content on the acoustic signal.

The experimental results showed that the slope of the calibration curve decreases with increasing validity range as the clay ratio of the mixture increases. Under the fixed SSC condition, the backscatter strength is greater for the mixture with a lower clay ratio. The theoretical analysis indicated that changing clay content modifies the scattering and attenuation properties compared to the mono-size suspension with the same mean size. Introducing clay material in a mixture affects the scattering properties more significantly than the attenuation properties. Therefore, information on the form of the sediment distribution and the sorting of sediments in suspension is crucial for acoustic estimates of suspended sediment parameters.

Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) with project number 218M428.

How to cite: Aras, A. and Sahin, C.: Effect of clay content on Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter backscatter for suspended sediment concentration measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14330, 2021.

EGU21-14713 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Concentration and velocity measurements in experimental turbidity currents 

Patricia Buffon, Daniel Valero, Wim Uijttewaal, and Mário Franca

Turbidity currents are in the range of highly sediment concentrated flows, challenging traditional (i.e. optical and acoustic) techniques that aim to measure concentration and velocity quantities. In typical laboratory conditions, difficulties increase in the presence of highly non-uniform and unsteady flows. However, the measurement of those quantities along with a longitudinal profile is necessary to quantify and depict key mechanisms of mass and momentum transport, related to the mean and turbulent flow fields. The possible solutions often require prohibitive costs or resources. In this work, visual, acoustic, electrical, and statistical tools are tested. The aim of these tests is to find appropriate techniques and strategies for measuring concentration and velocity quantities in the broader research scope involving turbidity currents triggered by a 2D water jet. The outcomes will be applied in the quantification of turbidity currents with various boundary and initial conditions in a flume 4 m long, 2 m deep, and 22 cm wide. Additionally, the findings can potentially be transferred to other laboratory applications involving turbidity currents or other types of sediment-laden flows.

Acknowledgements: CAPES (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, a Foundation within the Ministry of Education in Brazil), grant number 88881.174820/2018-01.

How to cite: Buffon, P., Valero, D., Uijttewaal, W., and Franca, M.: Concentration and velocity measurements in experimental turbidity currents , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14713, 2021.

EGU21-15834 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Monitoring inner shelf sediment transport using fluorescent sand tracers: an example from the south coast of Portugal 

João Cascalho, Rui Taborda, Marcos Rosa, Erwan Garel, Sebastião Teixeira, Ana Alberto, and Teresa Drago

The continuous need for beach nourishment requires a detailed understanding of the sediment transport characteristics at the shelf borrow sites, to assess their recovery rate and to evaluate the long-term sustainability of these operations. 

The main objective of this work is to assess sediment transport conditions at an inner shelf borrow site exploited to nourish a beach located at the updrift boundary of the same sedimentary cell (Belharucas, Albufeira, south coast of Portugal).

The work is supported by a sand tracer experiment, where 600 kg of coated sand with fluorescent ink was deposited (August 2020) by divers at 11 m depth (referred to the mean sea level). Periodic sediment sampling using a Van Veen grab was performed using an adaptative sampling grid that accounted for tracer’s dispersion trough time. The samples were washed and dried in laboratory and tagged particles were automatically identified using an automated image analysis procedure based on ultraviolet lighting.

Preliminary results show that sediment transport is dominated by a eastward component,probably related with the energetic events from the SW. Ongoing work relates the tracer’s displacement with ADCP (wave and current) data measured nearby the borrow site during the experiment.

 

The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL and ECOEXA project (MAR-01.04.02-FEAMP-0016).

 

 

How to cite: Cascalho, J., Taborda, R., Rosa, M., Garel, E., Teixeira, S., Alberto, A., and Drago, T.: Monitoring inner shelf sediment transport using fluorescent sand tracers: an example from the south coast of Portugal , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15834, 2021.

EGU21-16412 | vPICO presentations | HS9.3

Application of artificial neural network to estimate bedload transport rates and bedload granulometry using outputs of stationary ADCP measurements 

Slaven Conevski, Massimo Guerrero, Axel Winterscheid, and Nils Ruther

Measuring and assessing the bedload data is a crucial for successful and efficient river management. Hence, the information about the bedload transport and characteristics helps to describe the dynamics of the river morphology and to evaluate the impacts on boat navigation, hydropower production, ecological systems and aquatic habitat.

Although the acoustic Doppler current profilers are designed to measure water velocities and discharges, they have been successfully used to measure some bedload characteristics, such as the apparent bedload velocity. The correlation between the apparent bedload velocity and the bedload transport rates measured by physical bedload samplers (e.g. pressure difference) has been examined and relatively high correlations have been reported. Moreover, laboratory experiments have proven that there is a strong correlation between the bedload concentration and particle size distribution and corrected backscattering strength obtained from the ADCPs.

The bedload transport rates yielded from the ADCPs outputs are usually derived as regression model-fitting of the measured apparent velocity and the physically collected bedload samples at the same time and position.  Alternatively, a semi-empirical kinematical approach is used, where the apparent bedload velocity is the main component and the bedload concentration is empirically estimated. However, the heterogeneous and sporadic motion of the bedload particles is often followed by high uncertainty and weak performance of these approaches.

Machine learning offers a relatively simple and robust method that has the potential to describe the nonlinearity of the complex bedload motion and so far, it has not been previously exploited for predicting transport rates. This study implements artificial neural network techniques to develop a model for predicting bedload transport rates by using only ADCP data outputs as training data. Data processing techniques are used to extract relevant features from the corrected backscattering strength and apparent velocity obtained from the ADCPs. More than 60 features were derived in the ADCPs dataset, and the most relevant features are selected through neighborhood component analysis. These features are used as inputs in conventional supervised neural network architecture which consists of two hidden layers and 35 neurons. This model is used to capture the distribution of the ADCP features for each output (e.g., physically measured transport rates and grain size from bedload samples) in the training sample. The back-propagation algorithm (BPA) is still one of the most widely used learning algorithms in the training process and thus herein applied. The learning rate, number of neurons and hidden layers were optimized by using Bayesian optimization techniques. The network was trained with more than 60 bedload samples and corresponding 5 - 10 min time series of ADCP preprocessed data. The rest of the samples were used for validation of the model. The validation resulted in correlation coefficients higher than 0.9 and the, which is significantly higher value than the corresponding values for the methodologies developed before. Aiming to develop a more robust and stable ANN model, further testing of different training algorithms must be performed, different ANN architecture should be tested, and more data shall be included.

How to cite: Conevski, S., Guerrero, M., Winterscheid, A., and Ruther, N.: Application of artificial neural network to estimate bedload transport rates and bedload granulometry using outputs of stationary ADCP measurements , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16412, 2021.

HS9.4 – Numerical modelling of hydro-morphological processes in open water environments

EGU21-7027 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Research on the single-host parallel computing with the local time step scheme for modeling of hydro-sediment-morphodynamic processes

Zixiong Zhao, Peng Hu, Wei Li, Zhixian Cao, and Zhiguo He

In recent decades, computational hydraulics and sediment modelling have a great development due to compute technology. Applying a finite-volume Godunov-type hydrodynamic shallow water model with hydro-sediment-morphodynamic processes, this work demonstrates and analysis the ability of single-host parallel computing technology with algorithmic acceleration technology. This model is implemented for high-performance computing using the NVIDIA’s Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) programming framework, using a domain decomposition technique and across multiple cores through an efficient implementation of the Open Multi-Processing (Open MP) architecture, and using an algorithmic acceleration technology named local time stepping scheme (LTS), which is capable of obtain much efficiency improvement via different time step sizes for different grid sizes. The model is applied for three cases, through which we compare the effectiveness of CPU, Open MP, Open MP+LTS, CUDA, and CUDA+LTS, demonstrating high computational performance across CUDA+LTS which can lead to speedups of 40 times with respect to CPU and high-precision results across CUDA +LTS.

KEY WORDS: Hydro-sediment-morphological modeling; local time step; Open MP; CUDA.

How to cite: Zhao, Z., Hu, P., Li, W., Cao, Z., and He, Z.: Research on the single-host parallel computing with the local time step scheme for modeling of hydro-sediment-morphodynamic processes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7027, 2021.

EGU21-9610 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

On the dependency of jumps on particle shape in bedload transport of monodisperse non-spherical particles

Ramandeep Jain, Ricardo Rebel, and Jochen Fröhlich

Accurate prediction of sediment transport is highly desirable because of its key importance in many environmental and industrial applications. One way to approach this is to measure the length and height of the jump of a moving particle. This led to many studies dealing with the quantification of a particle jump. Nevertheless, few experiments have been performed to understand the effect of particle shape on its jump. A dataset of jumps of differently shaped particles has been generated by the authors from direct numerical simulations of bedload transport in a turbulent open channel flow. A total of four simulations were performed with a large number of mobile single shaped, mono-disperse particles. Four ellipsoidal shapes were used in these simulations, i.e. oblate, prolate, sphere, and a generally shaped ellipsoid. In the present contribution, statistical properties of the jump trajectories such as ejection and landing angles, flight length, height, and time, etc. will be reported. Mean jump trajectories for different particle shapes were calculated using the Dynamic-Time-Warping algorithm. The analysis provides a quantification of the different behavior of the particles under the present conditions. For example, it is observed that oblate particles travel a maximum distance in a jump, while spherical particles take small jumps but more often.

How to cite: Jain, R., Rebel, R., and Fröhlich, J.: On the dependency of jumps on particle shape in bedload transport of monodisperse non-spherical particles, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9610, 2021.

EGU21-1464 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Numerical study of sheared mobile polydisperse sediment beds with a coupled lattice Boltzmann - discrete element method

Christoph Rettinger, Sebastian Eibl, Ulrich Rüde, and Bernhard Vowinckel

With the increasing computational power of today's supercomputers, geometrically fully resolved simulations of particle-laden flows are becoming a viable alternative to laboratory experiments. Such simulations enable detailed investigations of transport phenomena in various multiphysics scenarios, such as the coupled interaction of sediment beds with a shearing fluid flow. There, the majority of available simulations as well as experimental studies focuses on setups of monodisperse particles. In reality, however, polydisperse configurations are much more common and feature unique effects like vertical size segregation.

In this talk, we will present numerical studies of mobile polydisperse sediment beds in a laminar shear flow, with a ratio of maximum to minimum diameter up to 10. The lattice Boltzmann method is applied to represent the fluid dynamics through and above the sediment bed efficiently. We model particle interactions by a discrete element method and explicitly account for lubrication forces. The fluid-particle coupling mechanism is based on the geometrically fully resolved momentum transfer between the fluid and the particulate phase. We will highlight algorithmic aspects and communication schemes essential for massively parallel execution.

Utilizing these capabilities allows us to achieve large-scale simulations with more than 26.000 densely-packed polydisperse particles interacting with the fluid. With this, we are able to reproduce effects like size segregation and to study the rheological behavior of such systems in great detail. We will evaluate and discuss the influence of polydispersity on these processes. These insights will be used to improve and extend existing macroscopic models.

How to cite: Rettinger, C., Eibl, S., Rüde, U., and Vowinckel, B.: Numerical study of sheared mobile polydisperse sediment beds with a coupled lattice Boltzmann - discrete element method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1464, 2021.

EGU21-4576 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Particle-Resolved Direct Numerical Simulations of Clay Particles in the Absence of Gravity.

Fabian Kleischmann, Paolo Luzzatto-Fegiz, Nick Rommelfanger, Eckart Meiburg, and Bernhard Vowinckel

Flocculation processes of clay particles are usually influenced by settling effects due to gravity. This inhibits the investigation of the effects of cohesive forces in isolation and limits our understanding of flocculation processes over long time scales that are more common in aquatic environments. To address this issue, particle-resolved Direct Numerical Simulations (pr-DNS) are conducted to simulate the flocculation processes of a preceding campaign of microgravity experiments that have been performed onboard the International Space Station (ISS). The experiments with clay suspensions of kaolin (8 ppt) in saline water (35 PSU) have been examined in the absence of gravity over a time period of more than 100 days by taking pictures of the suspension at regular time intervals. The results of the image analysis are used to validate the numerical computation of clay aggregate growth over time. The simulations are based on a numerical cohesion model which includes the fluid-particle interaction via the Immersed Boundary Method (IBM) by geometrically resolving the flow field around the suspended particles. To this end, monodisperse spherical primary particles were randomly placed in a triple-periodic box and exposed to an oscillatory flow. This oscillation is used to mimic the jitering motion of the ISS, which may be caused by onboard instruments as well as the drive-line technology. In this talk, we will present the results of these simulations and link them to the observations provided by the microgravity experimtents.

How to cite: Kleischmann, F., Luzzatto-Fegiz, P., Rommelfanger, N., Meiburg, E., and Vowinckel, B.: Particle-Resolved Direct Numerical Simulations of Clay Particles in the Absence of Gravity., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4576, 2021.

EGU21-2438 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

A numerical method for simulations of cohesive, porous sediments

Alexander Metelkin and Bernhard Vowinckel

The dynamics of cohesive sediments under various flow conditions are of special interest in the framework of aquatic ecosystems. Being one of the main sources of transport for minerals and organic matter, the constituents of cohesive sediments are the source of food for many aquatic organisms. Due to the additional complexity of physical mechanisms, there are only a few simulation techniques for cohesive sediments, which do not cover all spatial scales. The primary cohesive clay particles are platelets smaller than 2 μm, which is small enough to experience Brownian motion. Composed together under the influence of van der Waals forces, they shape rounded aggregates also known as microflocs that are rather stable. These microflocs can form fragile, larger macroflocs with complex shapes exceeding 100 μm in size. Owing to the huge difference in the spatial scales, it is almost impossible to simulate macroflocs as the assembly of primary clay particles in the context of cohesive sediment transport modeling. In contrast to separate sediment grains, microflocs represent porous aggregates. To perform direct numerical simulations of microflocs transported in a viscous fluid flow, we are developing a computational model for immersed porous particles. The model resolves the flow outside and inside porous aggregates and accurately computes the hydrodynamic forces on the microflocs. The simulation of macroflocs is also attainable by employing cohesive forces between microflocs, which assembles them into bigger aggregates with the propensity of breaking up under high shear rates. Our computational model solves the system of Navier - Stokes equations directly with an additional Darcy term inside the porous aggregate. Using this approach, it becomes feasible to consider the influence of the flow inside porous media, so that we can study its impact on the mean flow characteristics depending on the properties of the porous flocs. The hydrodynamic forces are calculated implicitly based on the pressure and shear stress distribution. By comparison with methods that use Stokes-based drag coefficients, our approach allows estimating the influence of local flow conditions and the presence of neighboring aggregates on the resulting fluid force.

 

How to cite: Metelkin, A. and Vowinckel, B.: A numerical method for simulations of cohesive, porous sediments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2438, 2021.

EGU21-36 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Stream Power determination along of a basin: First trial in the Chancay-Lambayeque basin.

Joshua Er Addi Iparraguirre Ayala, Estibene Pool Vásquez Choque, Carlos Lenin Benavente Escobar, Flor de María Zanini Maldonado, and Hugo Dulio Gómez Velásquez

The Peruvian coast is one of the driest in the world, but it is continuously affected by extraordinary rains associated with El Niño and/or La Niña phenomenon. During these periods of intense rainfall, high flow rates are registered and gravitational processes are reported along the valleys, such as: landslides, debris flow, rock falls, avalanches, among others.

This work presents the first estimation of the Stream Power, relationship between the energy, the flow, the slope of the channel and the density of the flow of the Chancay - Lambayeque basin, with the objective of determining the energy of the main rivers in the basin and relating with gravitational processes and damage to infrastructures.

We use two softwares: LSDTopoTools and ArcSWAT (version for ArcGIS 10.6). Using high resolution Digital Elevation Models (Alos Palsar, 12.5 m) we delimit the basin, its drainage area, water network and slope using LSDTopoTools. Subsequently, we use the SWAT program.

First, the sub-basins were delimited. Second, the Hydrological Response Units (HRU) were obtained, applying the Land Use data and the FAO base guide on soil types updated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation of Peru (MINAGRI). Third, we process data on temperature, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation and rainfall from 1970 - 2018 from five meteorological stations distributed in the study basin, whose data were provided by the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI). Next, we include in the analyzes the flow data from the Tinajones reservoir (6° 38´S, 79° 29´W). Finally, the annual flow rates (Hm3/s) were simulated and adjusted using SWATCup.

The results show an average flow for the year 2018 that varies from 13 Hm3/s - 49 Hm3/s. This means that the Stream Power varies from 1.3x1012Kw-4.8x1012Kw, the maximum power coinciding with the location of the Tinajones reservoir in the middle basin.

These results have allowed us to identify that 73% of the critical zones (zones with presence of gravitational processes) are in the sections where the rivers register high Stream Power; and in the same way in these sections geological dangers predominate such as flows and rock falls. In addition, infrastructures were located that may be susceptible to being damaged (e.g. three bridges, where flows range between ~22-35 Hm3/s) and/or may compromise the health of the inhabitants (e.g. five mining deposits located along the basin, considered high risk).

And to conclude, because the Tinajones reservoir is reaching its maximum capacity, a possible area was identified where a new reservoir can be housed (complying with all technical conditions), whose location would be 20 km to the east, in the province of Chumbil Alto (Cajamarca - Peru).

How to cite: Iparraguirre Ayala, J. E. A., Vásquez Choque, E. P., Benavente Escobar, C. L., Zanini Maldonado, F. D. M., and Gómez Velásquez, H. D.: Stream Power determination along of a basin: First trial in the Chancay-Lambayeque basin., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-36, 2021.

EGU21-3753 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Impact of vegetation control measures on the bedform of braided gravel-bed river

Runye Zhu and Ryota Tsubaki

Braiding is among the most dynamic landscape on Earth. It provides diverse habitats for freshwater creatures. Unfortunately, the number of braided rivers is reducing affected by human activities in the Anthropic period. The increase of the vegetation cover within the river corridor is one important factor, which is induced by flow regime change, land-use change, or alien vegetation invasion. Vegetation clearance could be a promising measure to mitigate vegetation overexpansion. Several previous research suggested vegetation clearance may induce geomorphological metamorphosis. However, quantitative prediction of the morphological change resulted from the vegetation clearance is still an open question to date. We simulated the river morphological response of vegetated braided river with gravel bed to the vegetation clearance using the Nays2DH model combined with a vegetation module. Except for vegetation removal, the developed conceptual model considered vegetation colonization and the destruction induced by floods. Multiple scenarios have been tested, considering two vegetation types (strong and weak vegetation), two clearance methods (full clearance and partial clearance), and two maximum discharge. The full clearance scenario stood for the removal of above-ground and underground biomass simultaneously, and the partial clearance scenario stood for the removal of above-ground biomass. Braided rivers had developed for both no vegetation and river with weak vegetation cover. The bedform affected by strong vegetation coverage consisted of a main channel and small channels on the floodplain, which was consistent with previous experimental results. The distinctive morphology of developed bed form depended on the dominant factor in the vegetation-geomorphology interaction: vegetation dominant or physical process dominant. River morphology responded differently to the vegetation control measure based on the dominating factor. For the vegetation dominated river, the developed main channel tended to be braiding after the vegetation removal, and the river morphology change was sensitive to the vegetation clearance method. By contrast, river morphology changed insignificantly by vegetation colonization and after vegetation removal if the river physical process was dominant. We also found that the small channels on the floodplain promoted sediment transport from the floodplain to the main channel after the vegetation clearance. Thus, the morphological response to the vegetation clearance method was also affected by the reduction of maximum discharge because the connectivity between floodplain and channel was reduced. To improve vegetation clearance effectiveness, we recommend increasing the connectivity between the floodplain and the main channel, such as excavating small channels on the floodplain.

How to cite: Zhu, R. and Tsubaki, R.: Impact of vegetation control measures on the bedform of braided gravel-bed river, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3753, 2021.

EGU21-6016 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Simulation of the meander cut-off by 2D hydrodynamic model for erodible bed

Tatiana Fedorova, Vitaly Belikov, and Andrei Alabyan

The retrospective simulation of the Pyoza river (Arkhangelsk region, Russia) meander cut-off in 2003-2008 has been undertaken. As a result of the river bend straightening two large villages were cut off from the road network of the region.

The initial data for modeling were obtained by analyses of archive satellite images for the period from 1997 together with the runoff data, as well as by the field survey of September 2019. The simulation was performed by the latest version of the STREAM_2D CUDA software, using a new method for the numerical solution of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations [1]. It was adapted for the complicated bottom topography typical for a wide floodplain with a meandering channel flooded in high water stage.

The mass-exchange equations for three layers of sediment over the unerodible bed were solved together with the hydrodynamic equations. When calculating channel deformations, the gravitational effect due to bottom slope and the influence of secondary currents on the sediment shift were taken into account [2].

The Pyoza river is the lowest large tributary of the Mezen’ river flowing into the White sea. It is distinguished by a typical alluvial channel, meandering along wide floodplain composed by sands and sandy loams. The maximum runoff usually corresponds to spring snow-melting and can reach 1500-2000 m3/s.

To schematize the computational domain of the Pyoza river section of 13 km long, a hybrid grid of irregular structure was constructed, consisting of 37 329 cells of a quadrangular shape for the channel and a triangular one for the floodplain.

The simulation started at the year 1997 when where was no any rill across the meander neck. The time step of calculation was taken to be one day.

Modeling made it possible to simulate realistically the essential steps and mechanisms of the meander cut-off: the development of a pioneer straightening rill, its widening and deepening, as well as blocking of the old channel by a point bar in its upper reaches, as well as its further silting and aggradation.

1. Aleksyuk A.I., Belikov V.V. (2017): Simulation of shallow water flows with shoaling areas and bottom discontinuities. Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics, Volume 57, issue 2, pp. 318–339. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0965542517020026

2. Aleksyuk А. I., Belikov V. V., Borisova N. M., Fedorova T. A. (2018): Numerical modeling of non-uniform sediment transport in river channels. Water Resources, Volume 45, Special Issue S1, pp. 11–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S0097807818050275

How to cite: Fedorova, T., Belikov, V., and Alabyan, A.: Simulation of the meander cut-off by 2D hydrodynamic model for erodible bed, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6016, 2021.

The importance of water reservoirs has been increasing with population growth and the need of water supply. Understanding the environmental processes in these water bodies is essential for the correct management performed by stakeholders. In this context, numerical models appear as a great tool for simulating hydrodynamics and sediment related processes and presenting them in way easy to understand. However, a wide range of data is required as input for a good performance of these models and its quality have a direct influence on the simulations results. Long term high resolution input data is the ideal case for simulations, but in developing countries this is usually not the case due to the absence of measured or simulated data to be used as input. The main objective of this research is to understand how the reduction of input data resolution and/or use of wrong datasets may influence final results of the processes taking place in reservoirs regarding the hydrodynamics, water temperature and sedimentation. Passaúna reservoir located in Curitiba, Brazil, is used as a study case with high resolution measured and simulated datasets which will be implemented as input data for numerical simulations using Delft3D. For the simulation of the horizontal velocities and the water temperature, parameters related to heat flux calculations showed the strongest influences on the results. A specific important parameter was the secchi depth, which is a single value used as input data and shows great differences for the reproduction of periods with mixed or stratified water column. On the other hand, sediment simulations showed sensitivity to the main river flow discharge temporal resolution and its corresponding sediment concentrations. Reanalysis data used as heat flux parameters and wind presented great differences from the use of measured datasets, but in cases where measured data is not available, this source may be the best choice for users.

How to cite: Gonzalez, W., Mees Delfes Varela, D., and Seidel, F.: Study on the complexity reduction of the input data for 3D numerical modeling of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport in a Brazilian reservoir  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8900, 2021.

EGU21-9676 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Study of turbulent mixing processes at a mesoscale confluence through aerial drone imagery and eddy-resolved modelling

Jason Duguay, Pascale Biron, and Thomas Buffin-Bélanger

The large-scale turbulent structures that develop at confluences fall into three main categories: vertically orientated (Kelvin-Helmholtz) vortices, large-scale secondary flow helical cells and smaller strongly coherent streamwise orientated vortices. The causal mechanisms of each class, how they interact with one another and their respective contributions to mixing is still unclear. Our investigation emphasises the role played by the instantaneous flow field in mixing at a mesoscale confluence (Mitis-Neigette, Quebec, Canada) by complementing aerial drone observations of turbulent suspended sediment mixing processes with results from a high-resolution eddy-resolved numerical simulation. The high velocity near-surface flow of the main channel (Mitis) separates at the crest of the scour hole before downwelling upon collision with the slower tributary (Neigette). Fed by incursions of lateral momentum of the Mitis, shear generated Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities expand as they advect along the mixing-interface. As the instabilities shed, water from the deeper Neigette passes underneath the fast, over-topping Mitis, causing a large portion of the Neigette’s discharge to cross under the mixing-interface in a short distance. The remaining flow of the tributary crosses over inside large-scale lateral incursions farther downstream. The downwelling Mitis, upwelling Neigette and recirculatory cell interact to generate coherent streamwise vortical structures which assist in rapidly mixing the waters of the two rivers in the vicinity of the mixing-interface. Evidence of large-scale helical cells were not observed in the flow field. Results suggest that flow interaction with bathymetry, and both vertical and streamwise orientated coherent turbulent structures play important roles in mixing at confluences. Our findings strongly suggest that investigating mixing at confluences cannot be based solely on mean flow field variables as this approach can be misleading. Visualization of a confluence’s mixing processes as revealed by suspended sediment gradients captured in aerial drone imagery complemented with eddy-resolved numerical modelling of the underlying flow is a promising means to gain insights on the role of large-scale turbulent structures on mixing at confluences.

How to cite: Duguay, J., Biron, P., and Buffin-Bélanger, T.: Study of turbulent mixing processes at a mesoscale confluence through aerial drone imagery and eddy-resolved modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9676, 2021.

EGU21-14255 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Hydrodynamic aspects of large river confluence with different water densities

Tatyana Lyubimova, Anatoliy Lepikhin, Yanina Parshakova, Stuart Lane, Carlo Gualtieri, and Bernard Roux

River confluences are characterized by complex 3D changes in flow hydrodynamics and bed morphology and provide important ecological functions. The current literature on river confluences suggests that their hydrodynamics and morphodynamics are controlled by three aspects: (1) the geometry (planform and junction angle) of the confluence, (2) the momentum flux ratio of the tributaries and (3) the level of concordance between channel beds at the confluence entrance. However, the difference in water densities between the tributaries, and the associated stratification, potentially may impact on hydrodynamics and mixing as well, but such aspects has received less attention by far, and has not yet been subject to systematic investigation.

The objective of this study is to investigate hydrodynamics and mixing within the confluence zone of the Kama and Vishera rivers (Russia). During the warm period, the water densities in these rivers are similar due to the peculiarities of their hydrological basins. Hence density effects are negligible. However, in winter, the mineralization level of waters in the Vishera river significantly exceeds that in the Kama river. Even due to a significant decrease in the discharge of these rivers, the densimetric Froude number Fr is of the order of unity. This condition provided the motivation for investigating the effects of density differences on hydrodynamic and mixing at such river confluence.

The study of these effects was carried out on the basis of full-scale field measurements and numerical experiments in a full 3D formulation (i.e. with no hydrostatic approximation). Both the field measurements and the numerical results suggest that hydrodynamics processes at the confluence in the absence and in the presence of density stratification are fundamentally different.. At large densimetric Froude numbers (at small density differences) the waters of the Vishera and Kama rivers flow, practically without mixing, for several kilometers in the form of two parallel streams and at Fr of the order of unity, the more mineralized (more dense) waters of the Vishera river flow under the less dense waters of the Kama river leading to much more rapid mixing.

The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and Perm Krai (grant 20-45-596028) and by RFBR (grant 19-41-590013).

How to cite: Lyubimova, T., Lepikhin, A., Parshakova, Y., Lane, S., Gualtieri, C., and Roux, B.: Hydrodynamic aspects of large river confluence with different water densities, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14255, 2021.

EGU21-9799 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

2D numerical simulation of shallow water and bedload transport in channel confluences by considering the non-hydrostatic pressure

Behnam Balouchi, Nils Rüther, Mahmood Shafaei Bejestan, Kordula Valerie Anne Schwarzwälder, and Hans Bihs

Channel confluence is one of the important sections of channel networks which is also common encountered in nature. Six different zones exist at a channel confluence: 1) stagnation zone, 2) flow deflection zone, 3) flow separation zone, 4) maximum velocity zone, 5) flow recovery zone and 6) shear layers between combining flows zone. Due to the complexity of flow pattern at channel confluence, this location is always interesting among researchers. Although there are a number of studies on the flow and sediment pattern at confluences, there are still some gaps to be studied. Hence, a calibrated numerical model should be a good tool for evaluating the various effective parameters on flow and sediment patterns. The numerical 2D shallow-water model used in this paper is SFLOW which was developed by NTNU. Besides, the model calibration part of the current study is done by using a set of data from laboratory experiments.

This study attempt to simulate bed changes at channel confluences with a 2D shallow-water modeling under non-hydrostatic pressure, and show the applicability of the SFLOW model for this complex flow pattern. SFLOW solving the depth-averaged Navier-Stokes equations which is equipped with cutting-edge solvers. Besides, SFLOW modeled turbulency with depth-averaged two-equation RANS. In comparison with other codes, one of the interesting features of SFLOW is solving the non-hydrostatic pressure besides of hydrostatic part. This leads to a more realistic representation of the complex flow and sediment patterns of channel confluences, and consider less computational power than full 3D models.

How to cite: Balouchi, B., Rüther, N., Shafaei Bejestan, M., Valerie Anne Schwarzwälder, K., and Bihs, H.: 2D numerical simulation of shallow water and bedload transport in channel confluences by considering the non-hydrostatic pressure, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9799, 2021.

EGU21-16114 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Numerical modelling of sediment transport in a channel bend with floating units

Diwash Lal Maskey and Nils Ruther

Floating units/booms are used to trap or guide floating debris in watercourses. In a relatively shallow depth, these floats could affect the velocity distribution, sediment transport and channel bed deformation.  A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic numerical modelling was performed in a 180 degree channel bend with floats to see the effects in flow distribution and bed deformation as a conceptual study. Different configurations of the floats were simulated. The results showed that the flow velocity increased and deposition decreased at the inner bank of the bend. Use of floating units could be studied to alter sediment deposition pattern and sediment transport phenomenon in watercourses.

How to cite: Maskey, D. L. and Ruther, N.: Numerical modelling of sediment transport in a channel bend with floating units, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16114, 2021.

EGU21-14680 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Physical and numerical modelling of sediment guiding walls in an alpine river

Jakob Siedersleben, Marco Schuster, Dennis Ties, Benjamin Zwick, Markus Aufleger, and Stefan Achleitner

The presented work is part of the optimization of the sediment management at the hydroelectric powerplants in Reutte/Höfen in Austria. The weirs of the two powerplants are situated at the alpine river Lech, located about 3 km upstream of the Lechaschau gauge (A=1012.2 km²). Totally five sluice gates and a fixed overflow weir are controlling the upstream reservoir, being subjected to high rates of coarse bed load material. In frame of a coupled approach of physical and numerical modelling, different options to (i) avoid/minimize sediment deposition and (ii) allow improved sediment flushing were tested and optimized. Besides a lowering of energy losses (reduced spilling times) the reduction of depositions downstream close to the turbine outlet were considered.

The physical model covers the hydropower and weir system of both power plants within a stretch of 400m / 150m using a model scale of 1:25. Investigated situations covered periods of reservoir sedimentation, flushing of the reservoir and typical flood flow situations (e.g. HQ1 and an unsteady HQ5 event). For model parametrization, sediment samples to quantify size distribution were taken in the field. Sediment inputs to the model were realized dynamically and were required (due to scaling effects) to exclude cohesive fractions having a minimum particle size of 0.5 mm. The full-area surface measurement of the river bed was made by means of airborne laser bathymetry and echo sounding.

As part of an optimization of the overall sediment management strategy, the focus of the presented research is on the western located runoff power plant Höfen. Via a lateral water intake, a maximum design flow of 15 m³/s is withdrawn causing that the intake structure is subjected to sediment depositions. Within the described scale model (1:25) and a partial scale model (1:15) covering the western side, several management options and configurations of sediment guiding walls were tested. Erosion and deposition as well as the transported material are assessed by 3D laser scanning and permanent monitoring of transported sediment load entering and leaving the scale model.

Complementary, a 2D hydro numerical model using a layer based multi fraction approach for sediment transport is set up for an extended area to simulate the morpho-dynamic behavior. The numerical model covers the whole weir system and 750 m of the upstream part of the Lech. The simulations made were realized at nature scale and allowed to mimic the erosion and deposition pattern obtained within the physical modelling for different tested options. Regardless of a chosen guiding wall setup, the results showed that each one is compromise between sediment defense and the effectiveness of the subsequent flushing processes.

How to cite: Siedersleben, J., Schuster, M., Ties, D., Zwick, B., Aufleger, M., and Achleitner, S.: Physical and numerical modelling of sediment guiding walls in an alpine river, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14680, 2021.

EGU21-13319 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Modeling shelter abundance for juvenile Atlantic salmon in a residual flow reach of a hydro power plant using SSIIM 2

Spyros Pritsis, Nils Ruther, Kordula Schwarzwälder, and Anastasios Stamou

Nowadays, the aquatic biodiversity is highly under pressure due to anthropogenic changes of the rivers such hydraulic structures changing the diversity of flow and aquatic fauna as well as sediment continuity. This can have severe consequences on the fish population in the river reach. Fish are strongly depending on a certain substrate composition throughout all their life stages. Juveniles for example are depending on a certain availability of shelter in the substrate in order to survive this stage.

Therefore, we investigate the effects of changes in the sediment composition at a hydropower plant in Switzerland on the availability of potential shelter for juvenile fish. By utilizing the observed correlation between parameters describing the fine tail of a riverbed’s grain size distribution and shelter abundance for juvenile Atlantic salmon, we predict the available shelter in a river reach by using a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model directly coupled to a morphodynamic model. The initial substrate composition was assumed to be spatially uniform, its parameters based on a grain size distribution curve derived from collected sediment samples.

This model can now be used for habitat improvement scenario modeling. Based on the assumption that a specific mixture of sediment coming from upstream travelling through the river reach will positively influence the potential shelter availability, different scenarios can be investigated. The baseline for comparison was the simulation of the bed changes without any sediment supply from upstream. The baseline discharge was set to 100 m3 /s and was applied for 24 hours. The resulting bed changes create a map of the potential shelter availability of this grain size mixture. Then, two scenarios with sediment inflow from the upstream boundary were simulated. One coarse and one fine mixture of sediment were chosen as inputs, with the goal of investigating their impact on shelter abundance. The former designed to have a positive effect while the latter expected to reduce interstitial voids in the substrate and have a negative effect on available shelter.

The investigation is conducted as part of the EU Horizon 2020 funded project FIThydro (funded under 727830)

How to cite: Pritsis, S., Ruther, N., Schwarzwälder, K., and Stamou, A.: Modeling shelter abundance for juvenile Atlantic salmon in a residual flow reach of a hydro power plant using SSIIM 2, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13319, 2021.

EGU21-14894 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Simulating irradiance of water layers of natural reservoirs by solar radiation in various spectral ranges

Natalia Dorozhko, Katsiaryna Cidorkina, Alexander Svetashev, and Leonid Turishev

The study is devoted to numerical simulating the 3D fields of biologically active solar light irradiance at deep water layers of natural reservoirs.

A numerical model has been developed on the basis of the discrete ordinate and Monte-Carlo stochastic methods which allows simulating the propagation of solar radiation in the inhomogeneous atmosphere and water media.

A software package has been elaborated enabling to numerically simulate both the irradiance of the reservoir surface by the total (direct and diffused) solar radiation in the spectral range of λ = 280 - 800 nm under various conditions (season, zenith angle, cloud cover, aerosol parameters, etc.) and the radiation propagating in the heterogeneous water media including absorbing pigments, phytoplankton and particles of the organic residues.

The software package combines atmospheric and water modules being able to function both jointly and separately thus allowing one to use spectral irradiance or integrated signals experimentally measured by ground-based devices and immersion photometric systems to validate the results of numerical calculations and model calibration.

To compute three-dimensional scenes of water body irradiation the super-cluster hardware and parallelization algorithms were used as well as the option to trace back in the Monte-Carlo method implementation.

A set of numeric experiments were made to simulate the 3D irradiance field in the water media of the Naroch group lakes using the measured transparency spectra of natural water probes.

The research was focused on propagating the UV-B, UV-A solar radiation, having the main abiogenic effects such as DNA or the immunity suppression.

The numerical simulation exploiting the refined model of UV transparency and irradiances of water layers at various depths was in a good agreement with experimental data.

How to cite: Dorozhko, N., Cidorkina, K., Svetashev, A., and Turishev, L.: Simulating irradiance of water layers of natural reservoirs by solar radiation in various spectral ranges, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14894, 2021.

EGU21-10446 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Numerical simulation of the dispersion of a sediment plume induced by seabed dredging in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean

Kaveh Purkiani, Benjamin Gillard, André Paul, Matthias Haeckel, Sabine Haalboom, Jens Greinert, Henko de Stigter, Martina Hollstein, Matthias Baeye, Annemiek Vink, Laurenz Thomsen, and Michael Schulz

Prediction of the dispersion of sediment plumes induced by potential mining activities is still very limited due to operational limitations on in-situ observations required for a thorough validation and calibration of numerical models. Here we report on a plume dispersion experiment carried out in the German License Area for the exploration of polymetallic nodules in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The dispersion of a sediment plume induced by a dredging experiment in April 2019 was investigated by employing a hydrodynamic high-resolution regional ocean model coupled to a sediment transport module.

Various aspects including sediment characteristics and ocean hydrodynamics are examined to obtain the best statistical agreement between observation and model results. Results show that the model is capable to reproduce suspended sediment concentration and re-deposition patterns observed in the dredging experiment. Due to a strong southward current during the experiment, the model predicts no sediment deposition and plume dispersion north of the dredging tracks. The sediment re-deposition thickness reaches up to 9 mm at the dredging tracks and 0.01 mm at far-field at a distance of about 500 m from the dredging tracks.

The model results suggest that seabed topography and variable sediment release heights above the seafloor cause significant changes especially for the low sedimentation pattern in the far-field region due to different current regimes. The termination of seawater stratification can rise sediment plume above the seafloor and spread it in a larger vertical distances up to 10 m from the seafloor.

How to cite: Purkiani, K., Gillard, B., Paul, A., Haeckel, M., Haalboom, S., Greinert, J., de Stigter, H., Hollstein, M., Baeye, M., Vink, A., Thomsen, L., and Schulz, M.: Numerical simulation of the dispersion of a sediment plume induced by seabed dredging in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10446, 2021.

EGU21-1329 | vPICO presentations | HS9.4

Numerical modelling of hydro-morphodynamic channel processes at decadal timescales using optimization methods: an application to the Dijle River, Belgium

Sardar Ateeq-Ur-Rehman, Nils Broothaerts, Ward Swinnen, and Gert Verstraeten

Numerical hydro-morphodynamic models can simulate the impact of future changes in climate and land cover on river channel dynamics. Accurate predictions of the hydro-morphological changes within river channels require a realistic representation of controlling factors and boundary conditions (BC), such as the sediment load. This is, in particular, true where simulations are run over longer timescales and when sparse data on sediment load is available. Using sediment rating curves to reconstruct the missing sediment load data can lead to poor estimates of temporal variations in sediment load, and hence, erroneous predictions of channel morphodynamics. Furthermore, when simulating channel morphological changes at longer timescales, this comes at a high computational cost making it impossible to run various scenarios of changing boundary conditions to long river reaches with sufficient spatial detail.  Here, we apply different methods (morphological factors (MFs) and wavelet transform (WT)) to overcome these problems and to arrive at faster and more accurate predictions of long-term morphodynamic simulations.

 

We modelled river channel bed level changes of the River Dijle (central Belgium) from 1969 to 1999. Detailed cross-sectional surveys every 20 to 25 m along the river axis were collected in 1969, 1999 and 2018. Since 1969, the river has been incised by about 2 m most probably as a response to land-use/land-cover changes and subsequent changes in discharge and sediment load.  Daily discharge and water level measurements are available for the entire period; however, daily suspended sediment load was only collected between 1998 and 2000. Therefore, WTs were coupled with artificial neural networks (WT-ANN) to calculate long-term sediment load BCs (1969-1999) from the short-term collected suspended sediment concentration samples. Sediment load predictions with sediment rating curves only obtain an R2 of 0.115, whereas WT-ANN predictions of suspended sediment load data show an R2 of 0.902.

 

Using MFs the reference hydrograph was condensed with a factor of 10 and 20. WT is a mathematical tool that can convert time-domain signals into time-frequency domain signals by passing through low and high-level filters. Passing sediment load time series through these filters create another synthetic BCs containing the frequential and spatial information with half the original signal's temporal length. Thus we also compare the modelling performance using WT generated synthetic BCs with MFs. Similarly, 36x1 to 36x10 processors of an HPC was used to simulate 16 km river reach containing 3,33,305 mesh nodes (with 1.5 m mesh resolution).  Interestingly, with a significant reduction in computational cost, there was a mild difference (R2=0.802 using MFs 10 and R2=0.763 using MFs 20) in model performance without using MFs during initial trials. Surprisingly, generating a synthetic time series using WT did not perform well. Therefore, hydrograph compression using MFs is found the best option to reduce the computational cost, significantly. Although the computational time reduced from 30 days to only 3 days using MFs and more precise BCs calibrated model with R2=0.70, WT poor performance needs to be still investigated.

How to cite: Ateeq-Ur-Rehman, S., Broothaerts, N., Swinnen, W., and Verstraeten, G.: Numerical modelling of hydro-morphodynamic channel processes at decadal timescales using optimization methods: an application to the Dijle River, Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1329, 2021.

Due to the active development of the Verkhnekamskoye deposit of potassium and magnesium salts (Russia) not only watercourses - wastewater receivers, but also water bodies that are not directly affected by technogenic impact fall into the zone of its influence. This impact, due to the high density of brines, is very important from an environmental point of view, but it is not recorded within the framework of traditional production monitoring. The carried out field observations show that the content of macrocomponents in water is significantly heterogeneous in depth and is characterized by the presence of a sharp jump of density. The concentration of salts in the near-bottom horizon is more than an order of magnitude higher than their content in the near-surface layer.

The situation is significantly complicated by the fact that during spring floods and during the passage of rain floods, less mineralized, fresh waters "slide" without mixing with more "dense" water masses located below the density jump layer. Therefore, the efficiency of washing of these reservoirs is significantly reduced. Since water intake for production purposes, as a rule, is made from the bottom horizons, this stratification creates serious problems with ensuring sustainable water supply to production facilities.

To solve these applied problems, the study of the formation of stable density structures was carried out on the basis of combined field studies and computational experiments performed on the basis of a hydrodynamic model in a full 3D formulation in a non-hydrostatic approach. The studies carried out made it possible to evaluate and compare various technologies for increasing the sustainability of technical water supply from these water bodies, to choose the most efficient of them.

The study was supported by Russian Science Foundation (grant 17-77-20093).

How to cite: Parshakova, Y., Lyubimova, T., and Anatoliy, L.: Investigation of stable vertical density structures formed in water bodies in zones of active technogenesis on an example of the Solikamsk-Bereznikovsky industrial hub (RF), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15334, 2021.

HS9.5 – Ecohydraulic processes in rivers, lakes and reservoirs: restoration and mitigation approaches

EGU21-16042 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Effects of riparian woody vegetation on EPT functional connectivity in Western Germany

Andrés Peredo Arce, Martin Palt, Martin Schletterer, and Jochem Kail

In the degraded European landscapes riparian corridors had have become key features to maintain connectivity between habitat patches for multitude of organisms. This role of riparian forests has been assessed from the purely structural point of view, to complex models specific for particular species or groups of species, from mammals to plants, from endangered to invasive species.

Dispersion is a key part of the lifecycle of EPTs (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) as they live most of their lives as aquatic juveniles, being drifted downstream, and disperse back upstream when they become short-lived winged adults. These three families of aquatic macroinvertebrates are widely used as bioindicators because of their sensitivity to water pollution and habitat degradation, but little is known about how the riparian vegetation impacts their ability to disperse and recolonize. For example, riparian vegetation could help EPTs dispersion by protecting them from harsh weather conditions, or by helping them to orientate themselves by changing how the reflexion of the light on the water polarises.

Nevertheless, connectivity is not the only driver of the EPT community as other parameters can have a direct effect on the community composition. For example, water pollution is an important driver of the freshwater macroinvertebrate community and in locations where pollution is high is not expected to find almost any EPTs individual regardless of the landscape connectivity. Furthermore, other landscape features can hinder the role of riparian forests as corridors for being a barrier to EPT dispersion, like dams or coniferous forests.

In this study we compare the EPT communities on 120 pairs of sites, each pair located in the same river at 1 to 5 km distance, with different riparian vegetation conditions in Western Germany. The communities are characterised by their overall dispersion capacity using the Species Flying Propensity index (Sarremejane et al. 2017). The riparian vegetation is identified using areal images in the 10 meters and 30 meters buffer from the river.

We expect that riparian forest fragmentation will directly impact functional connectivity, and therefore, in locations with less fragmented riparian forests the EPT community will be mainly composed by weak dispersers (and vice versa). Nevertheless, covariates that can impact or mask this effect were taken into account: catchment land use, saprobic pollution, naturalness, hidromorphological hydromorphological degradation and also other features as coniferous forests or dams.

How to cite: Peredo Arce, A., Palt, M., Schletterer, M., and Kail, J.: Effects of riparian woody vegetation on EPT functional connectivity in Western Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16042, 2021.

EGU21-14342 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

The effects of large wood (LW) on water and sediment connectivity in river systems: a new LW dis-connectivity index and its application in sediment management contexts

Ronald E. Pöppl, Hannah Fergg, Maria T. Wurster, Anne Schuchardt, and David Morche

It is well known that in-stream large wood (LW) can have significant effects on channel hydraulics and thus water and sediment connectivity, i.e. by creating hydraulic resistance that decreases flow velocity and transport capacity. The relationship between an in-stream LW structure and its hydraulic function (incl. the related effects on water and sediment connectivity) is generally quantified through drag force. Drag analyses, however, are data-demanding and often not straightforward - especially in complex debris jam settings where LW accumulations consist of wood pieces of widely variable sizes. Here, we introduce a simple LW dis-connectivity index (calculated based on visually estimated, field-derived LW parameters such as the degree of channel blockage), which has been applied in different sediment management contexts in medium-sized mixed-load streams in Austria.

 

How to cite: Pöppl, R. E., Fergg, H., Wurster, M. T., Schuchardt, A., and Morche, D.: The effects of large wood (LW) on water and sediment connectivity in river systems: a new LW dis-connectivity index and its application in sediment management contexts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14342, 2021.

EGU21-9815 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Influences of channel morphology and large wood on bed sediment grain size characteristics along a headwater stream, southern Brazil

Karla Campagnolo, Danrlei de Menezes, and Masato Kobiyama

Headwater streams are mainly responsible for providing sediments and nutrients to the downstream regions. In addition, the riparian vegetation of these streams is a source of large wood (LW) for the water channel. Sediments and LW play an ecologically-important role in maintaining aquatic habitat, meanwhile sometimes execute serious intensification of the impact of downstream large floods. The quantity and size distribution of sediments on the channel bed and LW certainly influence on channel hydraulics and stability as well as the quality of aquatic habitats. Hence, the characterization of sediments and LW supports the renaturalization and conservation of streams/rivers. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to evaluate the influence of the LW deposition and the channel morphology on the bed sediment grain size along a reach (700 m) inside a headwater catchment (15 km2), southern Brazil. The mean slope of the reach channel is 0.33% which can be considered low. This catchment is characterized with the Mixed Ombrophilous Forest, the climate is the Cfb according to Köppen classification and the average annual rainfall is 1881 mm. Hydrological (rainfall and discharge) and LW dynamics monitoring has been carried out in this catchment since 2017. The step, pool and cascade are observed as channel morphologies along the study reach, which were divided into three parts (upstream, middle, and downstream). Furthermore, 26 cross-sections of the stream were established for field survey, such as measurement of the diameter (axis -a, -b, and -c) of the bed sediments (D90, D84, D50, D16, D10, and Dmax) and LW presence verification. The definition of the sampling points sought to ensure a correct representation of the fluvial geomorphology. The present study reported the results obtained through the field survey carried out on August 8th, 2020, using caliper, tree caliper, metric tape and GPS. The grain sizes varied from 324.64 mm to 2.76 mm (particles smaller than 2 mm were not computed). The results showed that the presence of LW in the section induced a smaller value of the sediment grain size. In the pool formation a greater variation in the sediment granulometry was found than in cascades and steps. Furthermore, within the pool, the sediment sizes tended to increase from upstream to downstream. It is concluded that the LW acts as natural barriers for sediment deposition, avoiding the sediments exhaustion and generating low-velocity zones, favoring the maintenance of aquatic habitat. Also, the difference in the granulometry of the sediments within the pool formation may be a function of the flow velocity. In Brazil, the importance of fieldwork involving the monitoring of LW and bed sediments should be highlighted as a tool for understanding the hydrogeomorphic processes and for conserving the riparian zone, because such fieldworks are still few.

How to cite: Campagnolo, K., de Menezes, D., and Kobiyama, M.: Influences of channel morphology and large wood on bed sediment grain size characteristics along a headwater stream, southern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9815, 2021.

EGU21-243 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Drag coefficients of large instream wood – mystery or science?

Ingo Schnauder

Drag coefficients convert flow velocity into the force exerted on a body and hydraulic head loss. They spatially integrate all properties of a given configuration into one single parameter. Therefore, drag coefficients are widely used in engineering, including environmental flow applications such as large wood log. However, the scatter in drag coefficients reported from previous studies clearly indicate that universality is no longer given and predictions underlie large uncertainties. Deeper analyses are mostly restricted due to insufficient hydraulic data – which in many studies is simply the discharge and the derived cross-sectionally averaged velocity.

It is obvious, that the ‘ideal’ drag coefficients from infinite and low-turbulence wind tunnel studies with the iconic cD = 1.1 for the subcritical regime (104 < Re < 105) do not apply anymore. Instead, disturbances play a major role. For large wood, these are typically (i) blockage of the finite river cross-sectional area, (ii) the proximities of the bed below and the free-surface above, (iii) interaction with the free-stream turbulence, (iv) wake interference and (v) 3D-effects such as free ends of the cylindrical or channel aspect ratio.

To search for a more robust predictive scheme, we started flume experiments with horizontal cylinder configurations and measured the flow field in vertical profiles as well as the overall drag. First results shifted our emphasis from drag to velocity coefficients like the ones used in energy and momentum equations to account for non-uniformity. This seems reasonable, both because of the the squared represention of velocity in the drag term and because of the significant non-uniformities in large wood constellations.

How to cite: Schnauder, I.: Drag coefficients of large instream wood – mystery or science?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-243, 2021.

EGU21-16197 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Impact of morpho- and vegetation-dynamics on flood, erosion and ecology in large lowland rivers

Kshitiz Gautam, Sanjay Giri, Biswa Bhattacharya, and Gennadii Donchyts

Himalayan rivers in Nepal flow through the mountains with high gradient to emerge in lowlands as large rivers carrying enormous amount of discharge and sediments. They release significant quantity of sediment forming alluvial fan as a result of sudden decrease in gradient when they enter the lowland and gain braided form. This braided form has made the river morphologically more dynamic in nature. Division of channels into numerous anabranches leads to formation of temporary or permanent islands in between them. These islands in long run are either eroded gradually by the river channel or develop into vegetated islands. The development of vegetation may be long term with growth of trees or they may develop into grasslands that may be seasonal which is usually inundated during floods. The river channels and islands along with the surrounding floodplain with vegetation act as perfect recipe for the development of complex wetland ecosystem.

Koshi River in Nepal is among such rivers emerging from the mountains to flat plains of Terai thereby flowing into multiple channels within a large width of about 5 km, which is then controlled by Koshi Barrage at 41 km from the gorge. This dynamic river system feeds the Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve, a Ramsar site in the reach. The change in river course and vegetation of this large area which otherwise would be challenging to study can be done rather easily by the use of satellite imageries and cloud computing. Google Earth Engine (GEE) has been used in this study for analysing the morphological changes of the river as well as vegetation changes within the study area using the multiple satellite images taken at different times. NDWI has been calculated and used to identify the occurrence of water in the river channels, thus the morphological changes. While NDVI is used for intensity of vegetation. The temporal and spatial analysis of the morphodynamics and corresponding changes in vegetation is performed from 1987 to 2020 within the selected area.

The preliminary assessment of the results shows that the vegetation dynamics of the area has been affected by the continuous erosion and deposition caused by the morphological changes apparently due to the barrage. Over time, river has been channelizing and branching several times causing the existing islands to erode along with their vegetation as well as forming new islands with vegetation cover. This shifting of the river and resulting vegetation dynamics appear to have affected the habitat of the wild water buffaloes (Arna) as well as, other endangered species native to the area. Additional analysis on the effect of river morphology and vegetation dynamics to the flood pattern and other ecological components will be carried out to support the initial findings and draw generalized conclusions.

How to cite: Gautam, K., Giri, S., Bhattacharya, B., and Donchyts, G.: Impact of morpho- and vegetation-dynamics on flood, erosion and ecology in large lowland rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16197, 2021.

EGU21-4966 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5 | Highlight

Video footage from drones for Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry – A practical and rapid assessment method for large wood accumulations in rivers?

Gabriel Spreitzer, Isabella Schalko, Robert M. Boes, and Volker Weitbrecht

Large wood (LW) and logjams are common and important elements in rivers, yet knowledge about composition, volume and porosity of wooden structures in streams is still limited. Most studies apply a rectangular approach (manually measuring a rough bounding-box of the logjam) to estimate LW accumulation volume and porosity. However, this method cannot capture the complex dimensions of LW accumulations and may introduce an additional human-made estimation error. Furthermore, there is a risk of accidents involved when obtaining manual measurements on logjams in the field. Drones represent a powerful tool in geosciences, yet their potential has not been fully exploited to date. The application of non-intrusive quantification methods is widely available in geosciences and recently also increasing for research related to LW in rivers. Recent studies demonstrated that drone imagery and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry provide true replicates of prototype logjams in form of 3D-models. In the present study we used video footage of a LW accumulation, obtained via standard drone (DJI Phantom 4 Pro+), to evaluate its potential for a rapid assessment of geometric measures (e.g. length, width, height, volume) of the LW accumulation. The gained results from the 4k drone video footage (4,096 x 2,160 pixels) were scaled solely from the obtained video georeferencing data and verified with a properly scaled 3D-accumulation-model that has been generated from high resolution drone imagery (5,472 x 3,648 pixels). We are interested in the level of detail and accuracy, that can be obtained from georeferenced drone footage, and aim to introduce a practical and more reliable assessment method as a state-of-the-art alternative to the traditionally applied rectangular approach. Our study may be of interest for river managers and engineers to rapidly and safely assess LW accumulation volume and porosity in the field.

How to cite: Spreitzer, G., Schalko, I., Boes, R. M., and Weitbrecht, V.: Video footage from drones for Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry – A practical and rapid assessment method for large wood accumulations in rivers?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4966, 2021.

EGU21-13100 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

UAV monitoring of urban stream restoration sustainability

Jakub Langhammer

High-resolution imaging using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, UAS, drones) opened up in the last decade a new potential for a detailed, reliable, operable, and affordable approach for riverscape monitoring. Based on the experience with the pilot research on UAV detection of fluvial dynamics on natural and modified streams, we have proposed a framework for the assessment of the sustainability of stream restoration projects based on UAV imaging and photogrammetry. The approach focuses on aspects where the high-resolution UAV imagery can bring reliable and quantitative information, applicable for assessing restoration success and incorporation into standard assessment schemes.

We distinguish four critical aspects of stream restorations, where the UAV monitoring can provide reliable quantitative information, applicable for assessment of stream restoration success or failure: (i) Restoration effect, (ii) Dynamics of fluvial processes, (iii) Hydrological connectivity, and (iv) Riparian vegetation. For each aspect, there are derived relevant indicators, allowing quantitative assessment and scoring.

We have tested the framework on the evaluation of restorations on three urban streams in the metropolitan area of Prague, Czech Republic, which were subject of revitalization in the past decade. We have maintained regular recurrent UAV monitoring campaigns of these streams over four years, which enabled tracking the restorations since their completion and identifying the positive aspects and the failures in the sustainability of the realized restoration projects. 

UAV monitoring enabled to identify stream restoration features that would be hard or impossible to assess by other mapping techniques. As for the restoration effect, the UAV assessment revealed that although the basic goals of restoration projects were fulfilled, the newly shaped stream patterns significantly differ from the approved restoration plans. The restored channels are typically less complex and featuring simpler geometry than planned. Multitemporal assessment enabled to track stream instability and to measure the extent of bank erosion. UAV monitoring over a low flow period enabled to identify the stream segments where the inappropriate channel transformation led to disruptions in hydrological connectivity, and to detect and measure the extent of eutrophication in the stream and the newly created shallow ponds. UAV monitoring also enabled tracking the progress of vegetation succession after the restoration and quantitatively assessing the extent of riparian shading as a substantial element of sustainability of stream restoration.

Despite the limitations stemming from the nature of optical sensing, UAV monitoring proved to be a highly efficient and reliable technique suitable for evaluating stream restoration projects with versatile applications even in the urban environment’s specific conditions.

How to cite: Langhammer, J.: UAV monitoring of urban stream restoration sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13100, 2021.

EGU21-3069 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Towards a better understanding of river dynamics in semi-urbanised areas: a machine learning analysis on time-series satellite images

Alessio Cislaghi, Paolo Fogliata, Emanuele Morlotti, and Gian Battista Bischetti

River channels and floodplains have been highly modified over the last 70 years to mitigate flood risk and to gain lands for agricultural activities, settlements and soft infrastructures (e.g., cycle paths). River engineering measures simplified the geomorphologic complexity of river system, usually from braided or wandering channels to highly-confined single-thread channel. Meanwhile, rivers naturally adjust and self-organise the geomorphologic function as response of all the disturbances (e.g., flood events, river-bed degradation, narrowing, control works) altering sediment and water transfer, exacerbating bank erosion processes and streambank failures, and exposing bare sediment that can be subsequently colonized by pioneer species. In this context, river management has to address river dynamics planning sustainable practices with the aim to combine hydraulic safety, river functionality, and ecological/environmental quality. These actions require the detection of river processes by monitoring the geomorphological changes over time, both over the active riverbank and the close floodplains. Thus, remote sensing technology combined with machine learning algorithms offers a viable decision-making instrument (Piégay et al., 2020).

This study proposes a procedure that consists in applying image segmentation and classification algorithms (i.e., Random Forest and dendrogram-based method) over time-series high resolution RGB-NIR satellite-images, to identify the fluvial forms (bars and islands), the vegetation patches and the active riverbed. The study focuses on three different reaches of Oglio River (Valcamonica, North Italy), representative of the most common geomorphic changes in Alpine rivers.

The results clearly show the temporal evolution/dynamics of vegetated and non-vegetated bars and islands, as consequence of human and natural disturbances (flood events, riparian vegetation clear-cutting, and bank-protection works). Moreover, the procedure allows to distinguish two stages of riparian vegetation (i.e., pioneer and mature vegetated areas) and to quantify the timing of colonization and growth. Finally, the study proposes a practical application of the described methodology for river managers indicating which river management activity (including timing, intensity and economic costs) is more appropriate and sustainable for each studied reach.

 

References: Piégay, H., Arnaud, F., Belletti, B., Bertrand, M., Bizzi, S., Carbonneau, P., Dufour, S., Liébault, F., Ruiz‐Villanueva, V. and Slater, L.: Remotely sensed rivers in the Anthropocene: state of the art and prospects, Earth Surf. Process. Landf., 45(1), 157–188, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4787, 2020.

How to cite: Cislaghi, A., Fogliata, P., Morlotti, E., and Bischetti, G. B.: Towards a better understanding of river dynamics in semi-urbanised areas: a machine learning analysis on time-series satellite images, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3069, 2021.

EGU21-1880 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Seasonal variation in water and sediment fluxes of the Yangtze River under precipitation change and human interference

Yao Yue, Yuanfang Chai, Shitian Xu, and Xiaofeng Zhang

Seasonal change of water and sediment fluxes is an important issue in flood/drought control and ecosystem protection. Based on trend analysis in dry and flood seasons during 1960–2014 at six major gauging stations on the Yangtze River, the largest river in China, significant homogenization of intra-year water discharge was found, while sharp decrease of sediment load in both seasons was tested. By reconstructing water and sediment series without the human interference, contributions of precipitation change, large dam constructions on the mainstream, and other human activities in each of the sub-basins of the Yangtze River were separated and quantified. It shows that precipitation change attributed for 9.5–23.6% to discharge homogenization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and increased sediment yield by 1.9–25.5% in both dry and flood seasons. Being the largest hydraulic project in the world, the Three Gorges Dam only explains 17.5–27.2% of the downstream homogenization in water flux, and 3.2–23.9% of sediment reduction in both seasons. Relatively small but massive human interference in the sub-basins was recognized as the primary factor, contributing over 60% to discharge homogenization and over 70% to seasonal sediment reduction, most notably in the Hanjiang sub-basin for water flux and in the Jianglingjiang sub-basin for sediment load.

How to cite: Yue, Y., Chai, Y., Xu, S., and Zhang, X.: Seasonal variation in water and sediment fluxes of the Yangtze River under precipitation change and human interference, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1880, 2021.

EGU21-13519 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Achieving Flood Reduction with Natural Water Retention Measures in Agricultural Catchments in Ireland 

Pia Laue, Paul Quinn, Mary Bourke, Darragh Murphy, Mark Wilkinson, Simon Harrison, and John Weatherill

In recent decades, land-use and climate change have dramatically altered catchment runoff rates. For example, agriculture intensification has led to increased flood risks by decreasing  soil permeability and reducing channel-floodplain connectivity. Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRM) is an approach that has been adopted European-wide for the attenuation of peak floods and the provision of wider ecosystem services. A reduction in peak flow is achieved by increasing water storage potential in the landscape and by modifying natural flow pathways. In agricultural areas (~70% of Irish land use),  runoff attenuation features such as offline ponds, earthen bunds, sediment traps and leaky dams are frequently deployed natural retention measures.

Despite the growing evidence across Europe of their efficacy for flood peak reduction, water quality enhancement and biodiversity on the local scale, NWRM features have not been adopted in Ireland as a flood mitigation approach. In order to build a case that will help address this, this presentation will detail a NWRM demonstrate site in Ballygow, Co. Wexford.  The construction and instrumentation of a network of features developed at the field-scale (~1km2) is shown. This site is an intensive pasture, small-hold farm. We aim to quantify the effectiveness of these NWRM features to demonstrate their potential to attenuate flood peaks on agricultural areas using temporary storage, whilst minimising the impact on farming.

The constructed measures consist of a flood swale that connects the channel to the floodplain during high flows, an earthen bund, an offline pond with a sediment trap, that can retain the water from the channel and contributing field slopes, for <12 hours. On-site video footage and eyewitnesses confirm that the flood water flows along the field without draining back into the stream. At approximately 800m across the field, the water is retained temporarily, permitting water storage and the opportunity for suspended sediment to settle out of the water column. Flood water is returned to the channel via a perched 20 cm diameter pipe in the bund. Four automated water level recorders (In-Situ Rugged Troll 100) continuously monitor water levels in the stream and the offline pond at 5 min intervals. In addition, local rainfall (EML Event Logger) is monitored. These data are used to identify the hydrograph characteristics of several storm events and are used to determine the effectiveness of the NWRM structures for flood attenuation. The quantification of the effectiveness of NWRM features will use the observed time series combined with hydraulic and hydrological modelling. 

The quantitative evidence provided by our findings will contribute to establishing vital evidence for the implementation of local and national NWRM schemes in Ireland.

How to cite: Laue, P., Quinn, P., Bourke, M., Murphy, D., Wilkinson, M., Harrison, S., and Weatherill, J.: Achieving Flood Reduction with Natural Water Retention Measures in Agricultural Catchments in Ireland , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13519, 2021.

EGU21-16414 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

A cost-efficient riverscape methodology for GIS characterisation and planning of river restoration in Scandinavia 

Jo Halvard Halleraker, Janos Steiner, Ulrich Pulg, Johan Kling, and Knut Alfredsen

Fundamental assessment and understanding of fluvial geomorphological processes are crucial for a sustainable management of riverine ecosystems. There is a huge riverscape diversity across Scandinavia; from low gradient river habitats in the lowland (e.g. meanders and river delta in South of Sweden) to high alpine, post-glacial and morphologically highly variable rivers with water falls in West-Norway.

River basin managers in Sweden and Norway, are facing many of the same challenges related to types of pressures, biogeography, restoration needs and a huge number of water bodies. We have in this project exemplified how unbiased science-justified descriptors and indicators that are realistic to generate for many thousand rivers according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), can be used as basis for ecosystem-based management.  

The coverage of high-resolution laser-scanning-data (lidar) surveyed for mapping purposes are soon covering most of the river basin districts in both countries. Green lidar penetrating water is so far only surveyed only in limited pilot areas. Therefore, we have mainly generated riverscape features from grey LIDAR in all the characterised catchments, like e.g. i) river slope, iii) sinuosity, iv) valley confinement and v) substrate composition.

Cluster riverscape analysis and assessment of more than 7100 unique river segment and ca 2041 km of rivers in 10 diverse catchments in Norway, and about 11 000 river segments and ca 1930 km of rivers in three catchments in Sweden have been included in the GIS databases. These rivers have different management regimes (e.g. several permanent protected rivers in Norway) and key species in focus (several national salmon rivers). Still some of the same hymo pressures (e.g. lack of lateral and/or longitudinal river continuum) seems to be quite prominent across management regimes, and therefore an intensified action plan for river restoration seems to be needed.

We have demonstrated that our GIS-techniques by combining high resolution lidar data and the river continuum concept is a cost-efficient methodology for assessing river habitats for both riparian and riverine biota in riverscapes of Scandinavia. By combining lidar with other georeferenced data publicly available like geomorphological maps, pressure data (e.g., road culverts), segmentations and semi-automatic GIS-techniques, huge areas (like catchments of several thousand km2 and hundreds of river water bodies)  can be assessed in an objective transparent way already publicly available.

Application

The methodology and GIS database we have generated in this project are relevant for managements issues such as

a) defining reference conditions (to classify ecological conditions)

b) large scale analysis of habitat degradation of riverine and riparian biodiversity, (consistent river typologies – "digital twins")

c) pressure index to pinpoint more accurate and sustainable restoration strategies and measures, that also acknowledge climate adaptation (e.g. natural flow retention measures)

d) identifying significance of physical alterations (hymo pressures - e.g. longitudinal barriers for fish) vs climate change effects (e.g. due to changes in ice break up)

e) biodiversity management; habitat fragmentation, rare vs common habitat types (for updating next version of national Red lists of nature types and/or endangered riverine species)

 

How to cite: Halleraker, J. H., Steiner, J., Pulg, U., Kling, J., and Alfredsen, K.: A cost-efficient riverscape methodology for GIS characterisation and planning of river restoration in Scandinavia , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16414, 2021.

EGU21-6152 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

A novel multi-parameter approach to assess the effects of river restoration measures on the sediment matrix

Alcides Aybar Galdos, Stefan Haun, Sebastian Schwindt, Ruslan Biserov, Beatriz Negreiros, Maximilian Kunz, and Noack Markus

Clogging of riverbeds, also referred to colmation, has been frequently reported in residual flow river reaches. In such river reaches, colmation occurs mostly due to regulated (minimum) flow conditions without significant flood events that drive morphodynamics. Consequently, incoming fine sediments continuously deposit, infiltrate, and accumulate in the gravel matrix of the riverbed. The negative effect of such clogged layers on river ecology is well-known, especially with respect to the hyporheic interstitial leading to reduced porosity and hydraulic conductivity. These limitations results in a reduced supply of dissolved oxygen for aquatic species living in the hyporheic interstitial. However, no standardized quantitative measuring technique exists to determine the vertical location and the degree of colmation. Most available measuring methods involve a variety of mapping methods or single-parameter approaches. While mapping methods enable only qualitative assessments, single-parameter approaches are insufficient to describe the complexity of colmation.

The objective of this study is to test a novel multi-parameter approach in a residual flow river reach to assess the effect of river restoration measures on colmation. The multi-parameter approach includes four key parameters to describe colmation: i) the grain size distribution of the riverbed using freeze core sampling and sieving, ii) the hydraulic conductivity using a newly developed double packer system, iii) the porosity identified with a photogrammetric approach, and iv) the interstitial dissolved oxygen content (DOC) using optodes. This novel approach enables a quantitative description of colmation and an identification of clogged layers in stratified riverbeds as the hydraulic conductivity and the DOC are measured in vertical profiles. The entire measuring concept is applied before and after the implementation of river restoration measures to detect the intervention’s effects on colmation.

The first analyses of the measurement show clearly the effects of dredging with an artificial alteration of the riverbed on the sediment matrix. The vertical profiles of hydraulic conductivity and dissolved oxygen show typically high values in the permeable upper sediment layer and significant reductions in deeper sediment layers. The thickness range of the permeable upper layer is between 5 and 15 cm before the intervention and increased up to 30 and 50 cm after the interventions. The analyses of a coarsened grain size distribution and porosity support the observation of this declogging effect, although a direct correlation is challenging because both parameters are not detected in the form of vertical profiles, but rather as a bulk information for every measurement point.

These very first results provide the conclusion that the measured vertical profiles of hydraulic conductivity and DOC are promising data to assess the location and degree of colmation and their modification as a result of river restoration action. Yet, grain size and porosity analyses provide only little evidence because those represent bulk information only. In summary, the multi-parameter approach represents an innovative and quantitative approach to objectively assess the degree and vertical location of clogged layers in gravel riverbed, which is a major advantage over existing methods for assessing colmation.

How to cite: Aybar Galdos, A., Haun, S., Schwindt, S., Biserov, R., Negreiros, B., Kunz, M., and Markus, N.: A novel multi-parameter approach to assess the effects of river restoration measures on the sediment matrix, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6152, 2021.

EGU21-345 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

The HydroEcoSedimentary Tool: an integrated approach to characterise interstitial processes in freshwater systems

Roser Casas-Mulet, Joachim Pander, Maximilian Prietzel, and Juergen Geist

Increased deposition of fine sediments in streams affects a range of key ecosystem processes across the sediment-water interface, and it is a critical aspect of river habitat degradation and restoration. Understanding the mechanisms leading to fine sediment accumulation along and across streambeds, and their affectation to ecological processes is therefore essential for comprehending human impacts on river ecosystems and inform river restoration. Here, we introduce the HydroEcoSedimentary Tool (HEST) as an integrated approach to assess hydro-sedimentary and ecologically relevant processes together. The HEST integrates the estimation of a range of processes occurring in the interstitial zone, including sedimentary (fine sediment accumulation and fine sediment loss upon retrieval), hydraulic (hydraulic conductivity), geochemical (water quality and temperature) and ecological (with a focus on brown trout early life stages).

We tested the HEST application in two rivers with different degrees of morphological degradation in Germany. The HEST was successful in recording the set of key hydrosedimentary and ecologically relevant factors, and in providing a mechanistic linkage between and biological effect in a site-specific context. The HEST data confirmed that salmonid embryo mortality could be linked to high fine deposition in gravel beds. In addition, the HEST illustrated that such mortality could be linked explicitly to interstitial depths and to different infiltration pathways for fines (e.g. vertical vs. horizontal). Although interstitial water quality and temperature were within ecological thresholds and did not show significant differences with surface water, it was still useful to monitor such variables and to rule out any effect on mortality. Water temperature, for example, could be extremely important to detect local groundwater inputs, which has been demonstrated to have a significant effect on embryo salmonids elsewhere. The HEST also allowed accounting for the loss of fines during retrieval failure and estimating hydrological factors with the HEST illustrates its additional usefulness and reliability.

Compared to other methods, the HEST expands the possibilities to monitor and quantify fine sediment deposition in streambeds by differentiating between vertical, lateral and longitudinal infiltration pathways, and distinguishing between the depth (upper vs. lower layers) at which interstitial processes occur along the streambed column.

How to cite: Casas-Mulet, R., Pander, J., Prietzel, M., and Geist, J.: The HydroEcoSedimentary Tool: an integrated approach to characterise interstitial processes in freshwater systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-345, 2021.

EGU21-16229 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5 | Highlight

Knowledge sharing on fish-friendly hydropower: the FIThydro wiki

Bendik Hansen and Lennart Schönfelder

Hydropower is a key element in the transition to a green energy future. However, this technology also comes with adverse environmental impacts that should be avoided or mitigated. One of the challenges related to hydropower is its impact on fish, and the FIThydro project (2016-2020) has worked on improving the decision support for commissioning and operating hydropower using both existing and innovative technologies. One of the outputs from the project is the FIThydro wiki, which is a collection of mitigation measures, methods, tools and devices for the assessment and measure implementation of fish-friendly hydropower. The mitigation measures are divided into five categories of challenges: environmental flows, habitat, sediment management, upstream fish migration, and downstream fish migration. Each mitigation measure has a description of which methods, tools, and devices to use during the three separate stages of planning, implementation, and operation/monitoring. They also contain a classification table describing different aspects of the solution, such as TRL, suitable locations, which challenges are mitigated, and costs. Similar articles exist for methods, tools, and devices that can be useful in implementing mitigation measures, as well as for test cases in the project. The wiki is closely linked to a Decision Support System (DSS), which helps guide users to the appropriate mitigation measures. The wiki can support decision-making and contribute to a more transparent and simple communication/negotiation of hydropower-related issues through a clarification of terms and technologies.  

How to cite: Hansen, B. and Schönfelder, L.: Knowledge sharing on fish-friendly hydropower: the FIThydro wiki, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16229, 2021.

EGU21-4903 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Locomotion of juvenile silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) near the separation zone at the channel confluence

Lei Xu, Saiyu Yuan, Yuchen Zheng, and Yihong Chen

Knowledge of locomotion of fish with significant rheotaxis at river confluences is critical for prediction of fish distribution at a river network. Recently, less silver carps observed in the Poyang Lake should be related to the hydrodynamic change at the confluence of the lake outlet and the Yangtze River. The operation of the Three Gorges Dam has largely changed the hydrodynamics at this confluence. Silver carp is one of the four major Chinese carps, and has significant rheotaxis. In this study, a series of laboratory experiments were conducted to figure out the behavioral responses of juvenile silver carps to hydrodynamics near the separation zone at the channel confluence. The separation zone at a river confluence is one of the main zones for carp habitat and feeding. The locomotion and trajectory of juvenile silver carps were recorded through infrared thermal imaging at the confluence flume. Flow velocity field near the separation zone was measured by a Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) system. A total of 40 juvenile silver carps were released from the separation zone and swam to the upstream, among which 24 carps swam to the tributary and the other to the main channel. Almost all 24 carps moved along the beginning of the boundary of the separation zone near the corner where the flow shear was strong. It seems that instead of avoiding places with great vorticity, they preferentially chose the trajectory where the flow vorticity was large continuously. They increased the tail-beat frequency and decreased the tail-beat amplitude to maintain body stability when they encountered the flow with large vorticity. These results are beneficial for the regulation of upstream dams to adjust the hydrodynamics at the confluence and improve local ecology.

How to cite: Xu, L., Yuan, S., Zheng, Y., and Chen, Y.: Locomotion of juvenile silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) near the separation zone at the channel confluence, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4903, 2021.

EGU21-15963 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Analysis of fishways in the Middle and Lower Jinsha River Basin (China)

Siqi Tong, Silke Wieprecht, and Martin Schletterer

This study was carried out in the middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River in southwest China, which represents the upper Yangtze River. Hydraulic structures (14 cascade hydropower stations) are planned and/or constructed in this system, which is considered as largest hydropower base. We aim to summarize appropriate measures to restore the riverine continuum in the middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River, where high-head cascade hydropower dams are located or planned.

We distributed a questionnaire to Chinese researchers in the related fields (scientists, hydropower operators and NGOs in China, n = 60). According to the responses, fishways, fish lift, fish lock, trap-and-truck system as well as fish hatcheries (artificial breeding) are recognized to ensure passing respectively preserving fish in the Jinsha River basin.

A longitudinal connectivity assessment of the study area revealed a severely disturbed continuity status. Based on the biological analyses of the demands of the target fish species and review of fish pass technologies, a vertical-slot fishway is proposed.

Considering the dam heights and the geographical conditions, it is recommended to combine the vertical-slot fishway with these alternatives to achieve a higher efficiency in passing fish as well as to recover the river continuity towards regional sustainable development.

How to cite: Tong, S., Wieprecht, S., and Schletterer, M.: Analysis of fishways in the Middle and Lower Jinsha River Basin (China), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15963, 2021.

EGU21-2267 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Ecological effects of flow disturbance on phytobenthos communities in natural and regulated alpine streams

Luca Bonacina, Riccardo Fornaroli, Valeria Mezzanotte, and Francesca Marazzi

Phytobenthos is the dominant primary producer in streams and sustains, with the allochthonous organic matter inputs, the higher trophic levels. Among the different groups that constitute the phytobenthos community some, especially diatoms, have been studied deeply while others remain quite overlooked. Hence, a characterisation of the overall phytobenthos community is needed, considering all the main taxonomic groups (diatoms, green algae, cyanobacteria and red algae), as related to the environmental conditions characterizing different alpine streams. Moreover, despite the ecological role played by the phytobenthos the knowledge about the factors that control the variations of the community among streams and throughout the different seasons is still poor. Among the different drivers that regulate the phytobenthos component, a pivotal factor is the occurrence of high-flow events that, controlling the stability of riverbed substrates, influences both the phyto and the zoobenthos composition and distribution. Thus, the frequency and the magnitude of flow disturbances are determinant in regulating the phytobenthos density and the recolonization patterns. The aim of this work was to characterize and compare the phytobenthos communities in different streams highlighting the role of the flow regulation due to hydropower reservoirs accounting for the influence of the lithology and the seasonality. The presented phytobenthos data derive from a one-year sampling campaign in four alpine streams representative of different flow conditions (natural vs regulated flow discharge) and lithology (silicate vs carbonate). The riverbed coverage has been estimated monthly in each stream and the biomass has been quantified. In lab, phytobenthos samples have been analysed to measure the photosynthetic activity and define their composition. The main groups (cyanobacteria, green algae, diatoms and algae with phycoerythrin) have been determined both by phyto-PAM deconvolution and by the quantification of the photosynthetic pigments. In order to estimate the bed disturbance, painted stones of different size classes were located in regular arrays along three transversal transects and the distance travelled was measured during every sampling. The preliminary results indicate that regulated streams seem characterized by a greater algae biomass possibly due to a more stable environment. Concerning the community composition, the percentage of diatoms is significatively higher in silicate substrates. Despite the few hours of light, winter promotes phytobenthos colonisation especially for the low frequency of relevant high-flow events but also for the absence of the shadow due to tree canopy on the riverbed.

How to cite: Bonacina, L., Fornaroli, R., Mezzanotte, V., and Marazzi, F.: Ecological effects of flow disturbance on phytobenthos communities in natural and regulated alpine streams, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2267, 2021.

EGU21-287 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Hydrological paradoxes of phytoplankton distribution in the Novosibirsk reservoir 

Aleksandr Tskhai, Vladislav Ageikov, and Aleksandr Semchukov

The ecosystem of the Novosibirsk reservoir - the largest in West Siberia, is the object of this research aimed at studying the mechanisms of water quality formation, which differs in various parts of the reservoir. The research novelty is in simulation of ecological processes occurring in various water areas and in the reservoir as a whole through reproduction of biogeochemical cycles of limiting elements.

The city of Novosibirsk is the administrative center of the Siberian Federal District, which occupies more than 25% of the territory of Russia. The Novosibirsk reservoir is major source of water supply in Novosibirsk. Still, some features of its water quality formation have been poorly explained.

For instance, it is believed that relatively shallow and low flow sites of water bodies are most susceptible to eutrophication. In such places, water warms up better and phytoplankton biomass is much higher. In the central part of the reservoir, depth at the left bank is much less than that at the right one, through which most riverbed flow passes (from the Ob river to the dam). However, according to long-term observations, in every August, phytoplankton biomass at the right bank is several times higher than at the left one.

One more paradox may be considered. Phytoplankton biomass in the surface water layer during the open water period is usually much abundant than at depth characterized by worse penetration of solar radiation. Nevertheless, in the studied period (August 1981), we observed the inverse ratio when phytoplankton biomass at depth significantly exceeded that in the surface layer.

For better understanding these phenomenon, a comparative assessment of mechanisms of in-water processes was performed through applying 3D simulation methods and reproducing the cycles of biogenic elements transformation.

Due to simulation and its results analysis, we revealed the following:

  • the peculiarities of water exchange influenced by stable wind currents in August-September bring to phytoplankton biomass excess at depth near the right bank in contrast to relatively shallow water area near the left one of the Novosibirsk reservoir;
  • “locking” by thermocline and subsequent fluctuations in vertical water exchange lead to abundant phytoplankton biomass in the water column as compared to the surface layer near the dam.

Thus, simulation demonstrates that the above mentioned paradoxes of phytoplankton development in the Novosibirsk reservoir are induced by specific hydrothermal processes.

The study importance goes beyond only giving insight into the causes of interesting natural phenomena. A detailed analysis of simulation results enables to explain nontrivial features of spatially distributed dynamic ecological processes. The possibilities of forecasting the reservoir ecosystem response to changes in different factors associated with varying external effects have been expanded. To mitigate negative impacts of eutrophication, you can change flow patterns at appropriate times, for example, by selecting a suitable operating mode of a hydro-station. The study demonstrates that contaminated water outflow from some water areas may be executed by directional energy use of natural phenomena.

How to cite: Tskhai, A., Ageikov, V., and Semchukov, A.: Hydrological paradoxes of phytoplankton distribution in the Novosibirsk reservoir , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-287, 2021.

EGU21-14773 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Long term research and monitoring along the brownwater river Tudovka (Tver Region, Russia)

Rick Lotzkes, Vyacheslav V. Kuzovlev, Yuri N. Zhenikov, Kyrill Y. Zhenikov, Silke Wieprecht, and Martin Schletterer

The LTERM project REFCOND_VOLGA is operated continuously since 2006 and collects limnological data (chemical, physical and biological samples as well as catchment characteristics), with the aim to analyse the inter-annual variation at reference or least disturbed sites. Sampling sites are located along the Volga as well as along the tributary Tudovka. This study concentrates on Tudovka River (length 106 km, catchment area 1126 km²), where scientists from Tver State Technical University started hydrochemical investigations in the 1990s and since 2006 also hydrobiological assessments are carried out. Tudovka was selected as a model system, because (1) a large part of its catchment is protected, (2) there are minor anthropogenic impacts and with its paludified catchment the river is typical for the region.

The headwater of Tudovka is located in the transition zone of the Central Forest State Nature Reserve Biosphere Reserve, which was established in 1931 to protect “typical forest associations and animals of the central forest region”, and nowadays the last virgin spruce forests of the Southern Taiga are found here. The river is highly influenced by the surrounding mires. Many diffuse inflows from these mires discharge into the river. E.g., during the survey in 2009, a pH of 2.82 and a conductivity of 51 μS/cm were observed at the edges of “Zherdovsky Mokh”.  Since 1985 this Zapovednik (highest protection status in Russia: “prohibited from disturbance / forever wild“ ) is also classified as UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. In the lower course the Molodoitudskii Zakasnik (area of 80 km² between Redkino and Molodoi Tud), is protected by the regional government since 1992, meeting IUCN criteria III (Natural Monument) and IV (Habitat/Species Management Area).

In its upper reaches, the Tudovka River is heavily influenced by mires located in its catchment area. Flowing near three large mires (Staroselsky Mokh, Zherdovskoye and Pesochinskoye) along 20 km in the upper course, the river receives a large amount of organic-rich water. The minimum measured pH of mire waters in the Tudovka catchment area was 2.8, and the maximum chromaticity value was 1006 degrees on the Cr-Co scale. As a result, in the Tudovka River, the pH of water can drop to 6.1, and the chromaticity can increase to 708 degrees.

Thus, six locations were selected along this 104 km long river in order to analyse longitudinal changes. At these six sites (four of them regularly sampled) macrozoobenthos samples were collected using a modified multi-habitat-sampling method. In our presentation, we focus on the analyses of the data for the years 2010-2019 and provide information on taxa composition, longitudinal distribution and temporal changes of the benthic fauna along the Tudovka. In addition, we analyse choritope-specific distribution of benthic taxa across samples from individual microhabitats.

We exemplify at the monitoring sites the spatial distribution of different choriotope types, according the longitudinal profile of the river. We show that it is historically influenced by the Valdai glaciation (moraines), and nowadays catchment characteristics (peat bogs and forest) as well as morphodynamics in the different river sections governs the zoobenthos fauna accordingly.

How to cite: Lotzkes, R., Kuzovlev, V. V., Zhenikov, Y. N., Zhenikov, K. Y., Wieprecht, S., and Schletterer, M.: Long term research and monitoring along the brownwater river Tudovka (Tver Region, Russia), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14773, 2021.

EGU21-431 | vPICO presentations | HS9.5

Effects of three floating treatment wetland arrangements on the flow field of a channel

Taís Yamasaki and Johannes Janzen

Floating treatment wetlands (FTWs) constitute a nature-based solution that promotes water, stormwater and wastewater treatment by using vegetation growing hydroponically on top of a floating mat. One of the advantages of FTWs is not requiring land space to install them, since FTWs are put directly on the water body's surface. Consequently, FTWs can have the potential to affect the flow field, inducing preferential paths and short-circuit, for instance, which may be controlled by how the FTWs are arranged on the water surface. This study aims to numerically simulate the flow field for three FTW arrangements displayed in a channel reach, in order to assess the hydrodynamic differences between each arrangement. In Arrangement 1, three FTWs in series will be installed at the channel center. Arrangement 2 will be formed by three FTWs in series, each one spanning the channel width. Finally, Arrangement 3 will be formed by two FTWs displayed at each margin of the channel. The total FTW volume will remain constant for all arrangements. The simulations will be performed in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), using a validated FTW model from laboratory experiments.

How to cite: Yamasaki, T. and Janzen, J.: Effects of three floating treatment wetland arrangements on the flow field of a channel, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-431, 2021.

HS10.1 – General ecohydrology

EGU21-8390 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1 | Highlight

Soil-Moss-Relations: The path of water from dripping to infiltration

Sonja M. Thielen, Corinna Gall, Martin Nebel, Thomas Scholten, and Steffen Seitz

Nonvascular plants like mosses are often overseen; however, they are important players in the soil-atmosphere interface in regard to water exchange. Mosses are especially known for their influence on surface runoff, infiltration, soil water content as well as soil evaporation. Moreover, they can enhance soil moisture by water uptake from dew, vapor or fog. Due to their ability to colonize a variety of different environments, such as temperate, boreal, alpine, arctic and dryland ecosystems, mosses are found all over the world. According to their wide distribution, the impact of mosses on soil hydrology is thus assumed to be of great relevance globally. In particular, the specific influence of different moss species and according soil substrates on water movement has been largely disregarded in this context.

In this study, we examined infiltration, percolation and evaporation patterns in moss-covered soil substrates typical for Central European forests during and after rainfall simulations. Soil substrates were sampled at four sites in the Schönbuch Nature Park in South Germany with different kinds of bedrock with varying soil texture and pH. Additionally, one acrocarpous and four pleurocarpous moss species common in central European forests were examined, either collected in Schönbuch Nature Park or cultivated in the lab. Substrates were filled into metal infiltration boxes (30 x 40 cm) to a height of 6.5 cm and mosses were placed on top of the substrates half a year prior to the experiment for acclimatization and rootage. The experimental setup consisted of duplicates of 6 differently combined soil substrate-moss cover samples. Using biocrust wetness probes (BWP), water content values were calculated from measurements of electrical conductivity during one hour of artificial irrigation and subsequent dehydration for 71 hours. BWPs were located in three positions per sample: a) in 3 cm soil depth, b) at the soil surface, and c) in the moss layer. Electrical conductivity and temperature at each BWP position, as well as air temperature and air humidity, were measured in 10 s intervals during the experiment.

Expecting a relation between infiltration, percolation, evaporation and maximum water content of moss species and soil substrates, we furthermore measured their maximum water storage capacities. As we assumed a high relevance of moss surface area on water storage capacities as well as evaporation rates, we also determined surface and leaf area indices of the studied moss species.

First results show relations between air humidity and moss as well as soil moisture. In addition, we observed different water content trends during percolation, infiltration and evaporation between the studied samples. Maximum water storage capacities differed significantly between the moss species with the loosest and the moss species with the densest structure. Preliminary results indicate that moss surface areas and maximum water storage capacities are not correlated. Since the data analysis is currently still in progress, further results will be presented at vEGU21.

How to cite: Thielen, S. M., Gall, C., Nebel, M., Scholten, T., and Seitz, S.: Soil-Moss-Relations: The path of water from dripping to infiltration, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8390, 2021.

EGU21-10110 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1 | Highlight

Hot or not? The effect of stemflow on infiltration and soil properties

Johanna Clara Metzger, Janett Filipzik, Beate Michalzik, and Anke Hildebrandt

Stemflow can form hotspots of precipitation in forests. The stemflow funneling ratio describes the degree of concentration compared to open land rainfall in reference to the tree basal area. But how strongly does stemflow actually concentrate at the point of precipitation input to the soil? This depends on the size of stemflow infiltration areas. Findings hereon vary widely, as they refer to different tree and rainfall characteristics. Furthermore, due to little representative data on stemflow and the separate evaluation of stemflow and throughfall, the importance of stemflow as a hotspot is still subject to controversy. Using an extensive and representative field data set, we want to investigate the effect of stemflow on soil infiltration and percolation. Measurements were conducted on a 1-ha mixed beech forest plot in central Germany with intermediate stemflow generation. In high-resolution statistical designs, stand precipitation (stemflow, n = 65, and throughfall, n = 350) were recorded during three summers, and soil undisturbed (n = 420) and disturbed (n = 100) samples were taken and analyzed for physical and chemical properties. We calculated the spatial distribution of infiltration from stand precipitation data, rain intensity and soil infiltration capacity. Soil properties near stems (< 1m) and farther away were compared to determine a stemflow impact. Results show that stemflow infiltration areas are very small. Stemflow funneling at infiltration exceeds the conventional funneling ratio. Therefore, infiltration depth (L m-2) within stemflow infiltration areas is multiples of throughfall, even at dripping points. Soil properties close to trees are significantly different from the bulk soil, suggesting an accelerated soil formation process and a more developed soil structure. Stemflow-induced high soil water fluxes can be identified as an important driver for this pattern. Thus, the hotspot character of stemflow is confirmed by our findings. Stemflow-induced hotspots persist during infiltration and percolation. What is more, they have a direct and significant impact on the soil environment. Soil hydraulic properties facilitate quick water fluxes near stems. Such, trees might establish water flux bypasses from the canopy to the deeper subsurface.

How to cite: Metzger, J. C., Filipzik, J., Michalzik, B., and Hildebrandt, A.: Hot or not? The effect of stemflow on infiltration and soil properties, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10110, 2021.

EGU21-10350 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1 | Highlight

How do spatial throughfall patterns reflect in soil moisture patterns?

Christine Fischer, Murray Lark, Johanna C. Metzger, Thomas Wutzler, and Anke Hildebrandt

This study investigates whether and how vegetation cover affects the spatial heterogeneity and vertical penetration of water through the Upper Critical Zone (UCZ). We assessed rainfall, throughfall and soil water contents on a 1‐ha temperate mixed beech forest plot in Germany. Throughfall and soil water content in two depths (7.5 cm and 27.5 cm) were measured on an event basis during the 2015 - 2016 growing season in independent high‐resolution stratified random designs. We calculated the increase of soil water content (Δθ) due to the rainfall by the difference between measurements at the beginning (pre-event) and the maximum soil water content after the end of rainfall event (post-event). Since throughfall and soil water content cannot be assessed at the same location, we used kriging to derive the throughfall values at the locations where soil water content was measured. We explore the spatial variation and temporal stability of throughfall and soil water content and evaluate the effects of throughfall, soil properties (field capacity and air capacity), and vegetation parameters (next tree distance) on soil water content variability.

Throughfall patterns were related to canopy density although correlation length decreased with increasing event size. Temporal stability was high, leading to persistently high and lower input locations across rainfall events.

A linear mixed effect model analysis confirmed that the soil water content increase due to precipitation depended on throughfall patterns, in that more water was stored in the soil where throughfall was enhanced. This was especially the case in large events and in both investigated soil depths. However, we also identified additional factors that enhanced or decreased water storage in the soil, and probably indicate fast drainage and runoff components. Locations with low topsoil water content tended to store less of the available water, indicating the role of preferential flow. In contrast in subsoil, locations with high water content, and probably poor drainage, stored less water, indicating lateral flow. Also, distance to the next tree and air capacity modified soil water storage.

Spatial soil water content patterns shortly before a rainfall event (pre-event conditions) seem to be a key factor in soil water content increase, and also explained much of soil water content shortly after the rainfall event. Pre-event soil water content was mostly driven by random local effects, probably microtopography and root water uptake, which were not quantified in this study. The remaining spatial variation was explained by air capacity in both soil layers, indicating the role of macroporosity.

Our findings show at the same time systematic patterns of times and locations where the soil capacity to store water is reduced and water probably conducted quickly to greater depth. Not only soil moisture patterns but also deeper percolation may depend on small scale spatial heterogeneity of canopy input patterns.

How to cite: Fischer, C., Lark, M., Metzger, J. C., Wutzler, T., and Hildebrandt, A.: How do spatial throughfall patterns reflect in soil moisture patterns?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10350, 2021.

EGU21-10038 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Net precipitation assessment in a grassland and soil moisture response at plot scale in a temperate climate

Gökben Demir, Johanna Clara Metzger, Janett Filipzik, Christine Fischer, Beate Michalzik, Jan Friesen, and Anke Hildebrandt

Evidence on spatial variation of net precipitation in grasslands is scarce. Challenges arise due to a small-scale canopy structure of grasslands.

In this study, we designed and tested a new in-situ measurement device (interception grid) to assess net precipitation in grasslands. The collector allows the natural development of the canopy. We tested the device both in the lab for splash loss and in the field to test its capacity to assess net precipitation. In the field, we installed 25 collectors on a grassland within the Hainich Critical Zone Exploratory (Thuringia, Germany), 23 of which were paired with soil moisture sensors. We conducted weekly measurements gross and net precipitation (above and below the canopy), along with grass height in 2019 (March-August) and 2020 (January -February). We categorized the data into two groups (‘covered,’ ‘uncovered’), accounting for canopy development.

In the lab, we found that the drop size strongly affects splash loss. Drops of ca. 2 mm, created more than 16% splash loss, decreasing to less than 3% for drops <1.5 mm. Drop sizes <1.75 mm during the sampling period (2019) suggest low to intermediate splash loss in the field, further decreased in the covered period as the canopy contact slows down the drops. Grid measurements corrected with estimated splash loss during the uncovered period agreed well with gross precipitation. Using linear mixed effect models, we found that wind speed and grass height significantly affected the grid measurements of covered periods. Therefore, grids were able to capture net precipitation variation due to grass development. These steps encouraged us to examine the canopy effect in the soil moisture response to rainfall.

Soil moisture response over the entire period was not related to the spatial variation of net precipitation. However, for the drier period (June-August 2019), when the spatial variation in soil moisture is higher, and the overall response to rain events stronger, net precipitation slightly affected soil moisture response. LMEM analysis to estimate factors on soil moisture response showed that grass height, net precipitation are significant predictors. Yet, there is no remarkable difference between using net precipitation and gross precipitation as potential drivers for soil moisture response, indicating that the spatial effects are comparatively small. Overall, our findings suggest that the grids are cable to catch canopy effects on the precipitation, while the effect of wind on under-catch still needs to be investigated further.

How to cite: Demir, G., Metzger, J. C., Filipzik, J., Fischer, C., Michalzik, B., Friesen, J., and Hildebrandt, A.: Net precipitation assessment in a grassland and soil moisture response at plot scale in a temperate climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10038, 2021.

EGU21-10771 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Whole-tree rainfall interception measured directly by gravimetry and its relationship with plant traits

Stefanie Pflug, Bernard R. Voortman, and Jan-Philip M. Witte

Rainfall interception by vegetation is influenced by rainfall characteristics, plant traits such as crown architecture and leaf area index, and the interaction between them. We determined the cumulative seasonal interception, interception loss (interception:gross precipitation) and canopy storage capacities of 7 temperate deciduous broadleaved (Acer pseudoplatanus L., Betula pendula Roth, Carpinus betulus L., Fagus sylvatica L., Populus tremula L., Sorbus aucuparia L.) and 3 evergreen coniferous tree species (Picea abies (L.) Karsten, Pinus sylvestris L., Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). Furthermore, the relationship between interception and tree traits such as crown projected area, branch angle, branch length and density and branch surface area was analysed.

Whole-tree interception was measured directly on potted trees in the Netherlands. One tree of each species had been placed on a weighing balance in an outdoor setting, thereby receiving natural rainfall. Tree size ranged from 2 to 8 m and measurements were done for 7 consecutive months.

Our results show that a) the coniferous species had larger canopy storage capacities and larger interception losses than the broadleaved species, b) the cumulative interception (in kg) of the broadleaved species was positively related to stem diameter at breast height, tree height, crown depth, maximum branch length and the total branch surface area, c) cumulative interception (in mm) of both broadleaved and coniferous species was positively related to branch number, branch length and branch surface area corrected for the respective crown projected area. These results can be used to estimate interception capacity from plant traits and to simulate interception losses of trees in a more reliable manner.

How to cite: Pflug, S., Voortman, B. R., and Witte, J.-P. M.: Whole-tree rainfall interception measured directly by gravimetry and its relationship with plant traits, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10771, 2021.

EGU21-10172 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Comparative analysis of throughfall event response for 6 different forest stands

Theresa Blume, Lisa Schneider, Janek Dreibrodt, and Andreas Güntner

Rainfall redistribution by forest canopies differs between tree species and can play an important role for tree water availability and groundwater recharge. A thorough understanding of these relationships will improve our ability to predict future impacts of climate and forest structural changes on the water balance of forest stands.

In the TERENO observatory in the Müritz National Park (north-eastern Germany), throughfall was continuously measured at 7 sites with different dominant tree species and ages: young and old beech, young and old pine, and the mixed stands oak/beech, pine/beech, and pine/oak/beech. To this end, 5 trough-based throughfall monitoring systems with a total collecting area of 6.6 m² per site were installed at each site. Furthermore, stemflow was measured with tipping buckets at 5-10 trees per site. This added up to a total at 40 trees (18 pines, 15 beeches, 7 oaks) providing a unique high-temporal resolution data set of stemflow response. This dataset covers almost 5 years, offering a good data base for detailed event analyses.

During the measurement period we identified 534 rainfall events. However, to maintain good comparability, we removed all events where more than one of the five trough systems per site failed, which left us with 346 rainfall events for throughfall and 184 rainfall events for stemflow. Due to the large number of events we were able to compare winter and summer events as well as the influence of different precipitation characteristics. Statistical models were used to investigate forest-stand specific relationships between throughfall and meteorological conditions. The comparison of these relationships between the forest stands offered additional insights into forest structural controls of throughfall. 

How to cite: Blume, T., Schneider, L., Dreibrodt, J., and Güntner, A.: Comparative analysis of throughfall event response for 6 different forest stands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10172, 2021.

EGU21-11514 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Climate change effects on forest floor interception in woody Cerrado ecosystem

Livia Rosalem, Miriam Gerrits-Coenders, Jamil A. A. Anache, Julian S. Sone, Dimaghi Schwamback, Alessandra Campos, and Edson Wendland

The interception process is an important redistributor of water fluxes, which can considerably affect terrestrial evaporation. Not only the canopy intercepts water, but also from the forest floor significant amounts of water vapor return to the atmosphere. Remaining forests are important areas to evaluate the possible effects of climate change on the water partitioning process. Despite the hydrologic and ecosystem services offered by Cerrado forests, the interception process, as well as climate change threats on the evaporative flux of such forests, are still unknown. This study attempts to anticipate the possible impacts on the forest floor interception process in Cerrado stricto sensu considering future scenarios of climate change. To accomplish this, we used data of field monitoring from June 2017 to February 2020 in an undisturbed Cerrado s.s. forest in São Paulo State, Brazil. We calibrated and validated an improved version of the Rutter interception model (Rutter et al., 1971), which includes interception from the forest floor. Projected climate change scenarios were obtained from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, Brazil) from 2006 to 2099 with 5km spatial resolution generated by Eta-HadGEM2-ES regional climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results indicate increased rainfall and decreased potential evaporation in the decade 2041-2060. By the Rutter model, the total interception increased for this period (2041-2060) associated with decreased forest floor evaporation. During the first (2006-2020) and the last (2081-2099) decades, the predictions suggest an increase of 2.4% on the average annual percentage of forest floor evaporation, also an increase of minimum annual interception percentages (from 17.1% to 18.7%). Thus, our results demonstrate the relevance of forest floor to the interception process and suggest that it can be even more relevant in the future due to the climate changes.

How to cite: Rosalem, L., Gerrits-Coenders, M., A. A. Anache, J., S. Sone, J., Schwamback, D., Campos, A., and Wendland, E.: Climate change effects on forest floor interception in woody Cerrado ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11514, 2021.

EGU21-8171 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Response of stemflow as a function of various characteristics of the precipitation event

Katarina Zabret and Mojca Šraj

The amount of rainfall intercepted by vegetation is usually estimated by considering the amounts of precipitation, throughfall and stemflow. As stemflow values most often present only a minor fraction of the partitioned rainfall, they are frequently neglected. In addition, stemflow development during the event and under different conditions is also rarely analysed. At the study plot in Ljubljana, Slovenia, rainfall partitioning components and rainfall event characteristics have been measured since 2014. This database with high frequency measured data was used to analyse how different rainfall event properties influence the development of stemflow measured under the birch tree (Betula pendula Roth.).

156 rainfall events with observed stemflow were selected. For each event a figure showing increase of rainfall and stemflow during the event was prepared. The figures were grouped according to their similarity using a hierarchical clustering approach. For each group the significant event characteristics were analysed. Certain influence on the response of the stemflow was observed for rainfall amount and its intensity, duration of dry period before the event, as well as for average air temperature and air humidity during the event. The figures showing the situation for rainfall events with the smallest rainfall amounts and the lowest intensities were grouped in the cluster 1. The cluster 2 combined stemflow events with negligible response to rainfall development. These events delivered less than 20 mm of rainfall, while their duration was on average 5 hours, which is significantly less than duration of the events, grouped in the clusters 3 and 4. The average air temperature for events, grouped in cluster 2, was quite high as 65% of the events were observed during leafed phenophase. These events were also characterised with generally quite long dry periods before the event. The events merged in the cluster 3 showed noticeable response to rainfall development as the stemflow dynamics followed the increase of the rainfall. These events were characterized by an average of 30 mm of rainfall, reaching up to 102 mm per event. Also rainfall intensity was quite high and similar to rainfall intensities, significant for events grouped in cluster 4. It consisted of events with the strongest stemflow response, which coincide also with the largest amounts of rainfall on average per event. However, air temperature was the lowest and air humidity was the highest during the events, grouped in the cluster 4, which corresponds to mainly leafless phenophase.

How to cite: Zabret, K. and Šraj, M.: Response of stemflow as a function of various characteristics of the precipitation event, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8171, 2021.

EGU21-15969 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Impact of soil hydraulic properties on water-soil-plant relations

Mathieu Javaux and Andrea Carminati

Modeling stomatal response to soil drying is of crucial importance for estimating transpiration fluxes. There is a critical need for a better quantification of the impact of soil water limitation on vegetation in order to predict more accurately the impact of climate change on natural ecosystems and adapt agricultural practices.

Recently, we proposed a simple conceptual model, which predicts how soil and plant hydraulics affect transpiration.  This model reconciles soil- and root-based perspectives on drought stress and defines a 3D surface, which represents the maximum possible transpiration rate that can be sustained by a soil-plant system. The shape of this surface shows two distinct zones: a linear zone where the increase of transpiration is proportional to the difference of potential between soil and root and a non linear part in which an increase of E generates a huge decrease of leaf water potential. We show that this nonlinearity is mainly controlled by below ground hydraulic conductance. We hypothesize that plants should avoid this non linear zone by (1) adapting their short term stomatal regulation and (2) ensuring long term coordination between canopy and root hydraulics with growth. It implies that difference in soil hydraulics will lead to contrasted plant hydraulic and structural vegetation properties. Evidences exist at plant scales that this coordination exists. We further discuss how this might affect (agro-)ecosystem-water relations.    

How to cite: Javaux, M. and Carminati, A.: Impact of soil hydraulic properties on water-soil-plant relations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15969, 2021.

EGU21-7934 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Linking soil water and solutes fluxes to soil properties and vegetation types: insights from a case-study in the high tropical Andes of Ecuador

Sebastián Páez-Bimos, Veerle Vanacker, Marcos Villacis, Marlon Calispa, Oscar Morales, Armando Molina, Pierre Delmelle, Braulio Lahuatte, Bert De Bievre, and Teresa Muñoz

The high tropical Andes ecosystem, known as páramo, provides important hydrological services to densely populated areas in the Andean region. In order to manage these services sustainably, it is crucial to understand the biotic and abiotic processes that control both water quality and fluxes. Recent research in the páramo highlights a knowledge gap regarding the role played by soil-vegetation interactions in controlling soil-water processes and resulting water and solute fluxes.

Here, we determine the hydrological and geochemical fluxes in four soil profiles in the páramo of the Antisana´s water conservation area in northern Ecuador. Water fluxes were measured biweekly with field fluxmeters in the hydrological year Apr/2019- Mar/2020 under two contrasting vegetation types: tussock-like grass (TU) and cushion-forming plants (CU). Soil solution was collected in parallel with wick samplers and suction caps for assessing the concentrations of dissolved cations, anions and organic carbon (DOC). In addition, soil moisture was measured continuously in the upper meter of the soil profile, i.e. first three horizons (A, 2A and 2BC), using water content reflectometers. The vertical water flux in the upper meter of each soil profile was simulated using the 1D HYDRUS model. We carried out a Sobol analysis to identify sensitive soil hydraulic parameters. We then derived water fluxes by inverse modeling, based on the measured soil moisture. We validated the calculated water fluxes using the fluxmeter data. Solute fluxes were estimated by combining the water fluxes and the soil solution compositions.

Our preliminary results suggest that water fluxes and DOC concentration vary under different vegetation types. The fluxmeter data from the 2A horizon indicates that the cumulative water flux under TU (2.8 - 5.7 l) was larger than under CU (0.8 – 1.1 l) during the dry season (Aug-Sep and Dec-Jan). However, the opposite trend was observed in the wet season for maximum water fluxes. Moreover, the DOC concentration in the uppermost horizon was higher under CU (47.3 ±2.2 mg l-1) than under TU (3.1 ±0.2 mg l-1) vegetation during the monitoring period. We associate the water and solute responses under different vegetation types to the contrasting soil hydro-physical and chemical properties (e.g., saturated hydraulic conductivity and organic carbon content) in the uppermost soil horizon. Our study illustrates the existence of a spatial association between vegetation types, water fluxes and solute concentrations in Antisana´s water conservation area. By modelling the hydrological balance of the upper meter of the soil mantle, the water and solute fluxes will be estimated for soils with different vegetation cover.

 

How to cite: Páez-Bimos, S., Vanacker, V., Villacis, M., Calispa, M., Morales, O., Molina, A., Delmelle, P., Lahuatte, B., De Bievre, B., and Muñoz, T.: Linking soil water and solutes fluxes to soil properties and vegetation types: insights from a case-study in the high tropical Andes of Ecuador, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7934, 2021.

EGU21-5708 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Effects of the Turbulent Schmidt Number on the Mass Exchange of a Vegetated Lateral Cavity

Luiz Oliveira, Filipe Queiroz, Taís Yamasaki, Johannes Janzen, and Carlo Gualtieri

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been established as a relevant technique to investigate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of complex environmental flows, such as transient storage zones. In numerical studies involving mass transport of solutes and sediment (e.g., mean retention time and mass exchange rate), one fundamental variable is the turbulent Schmidt number (Sct) which defines the ratio of momentum diffusivity to mass diffusivity in turbulent flows, and thus affects the concentration of solute within the solution impacting on the estimation of mass related variables. This is particularly important for transient storage zones, such as lateral cavities and groyne fields, as they are known for their role in nutrient retention and release, and sediment entrapment. This numerical study aims to examine the influence of the turbulent Schmidt number in the mean retention time and mass exchange rate between a channel and a vegetated/non-vegetated lateral cavity.

 

The cavity was L = 0.25m long (x-axis), W = 0.15m wide (y-axis) and had a depth of H = 0.10m (z-axis). The aspect ratio between the width and the length resulted in 0.6 which corresponded to a single circulation system (Sukhodolov et al., 2002). The flow had a bulk velocity of U = 0.101 m/s that corresponds to a Reynolds number of 9000. The vegetation drag was represented by an anisotropic porous media calculated with the Darcy-Forchheimer model (Yamasaki et al., 2019), the vegetation density was constant at a = 0.1332%. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) was applied to define the flow field in that domain, using the Wall Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity (WALE) to account subgrid effects. A passive scalar was injected inside the lateral cavity to investigate its transport and diffusion in a range of Sct from 0.1 to 2.0. The numerical results of the flow field were validated using literature experimental data considering 3 different meshes to achieve mesh independence (Xiang et al., 2019).

 

The effect of Sct variation was, then, analysed in both vegetated and non-vegetated scenarios, for a total of 40 different simulations. The volumetric average scalar concentration in the cavity was fitted into a first-order decay model (C = C0.e-t/TD), where C0 = 1 is the initial concentration, t  (s) is time and TD  is the mean residence time. The mass exchange rate was defined as kW/(TD.U) . Preliminary results showed in the vegetated scenarios a limited effect of Sct on the mass exchange rate, which varied from 1% if the Sct value was doubled.

References

Sukhodolov, A., Uijttewaal, W. S. J. and Engelhardt, C.: On the correspondence between morphological and hydrodynamical patterns of groyne fields, Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 27(3), 289–305, doi:10.1002/esp.319, 2002.

Xiang, K., Yang, Z., Huai, W. and Ding, R.: Large eddy simulation of turbulent flow structure in a rectangular embayment zone with different population densities of vegetation, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 26(14), 14583–14597, doi:10.1007/s11356-019-04709-x, 2019.

Yamasaki, T. N., de Lima, P. H. S., Silva, D. F., Preza, C. G. de A., Janzen, J. G. and Nepf, H. M.: From patch to channel scale: The evolution of emergent vegetation in a channel, Adv. Water Resour., doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.05.009, 2019.

How to cite: Oliveira, L., Queiroz, F., Yamasaki, T., Janzen, J., and Gualtieri, C.: Effects of the Turbulent Schmidt Number on the Mass Exchange of a Vegetated Lateral Cavity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5708, 2021.

EGU21-12524 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

A model of stomatal closure driven by nonlinearities in soil-plant hydraulics

Fabian Wankmüller, Mohsen Zarebanadkouki, and Andrea Carminati

Predicting plant responses to drought is a long-standing research goal. Since stomata regulate gas-exchange between plants and the atmosphere, understanding their response to drought is fundamental. Current predictions of stomatal behavior during drought mainly rely on empirical models. These models may suit well to a specific set of plant traits and environmental growth conditions, but their predictive value is doubtful when atmospheric and soil conditions change. Stomatal optimization offers an alternative framework to predict stomatal regulation in response to drought for varying environmental conditions and plant traits. Models which apply this optimization principle posit that stomata maximize the carbon gain in relation to a penalty caused by water loss, such as xylem cavitation. Optimization models have the advantage of requiring a limited number of parameters and have been successfully used to predict stomatal response to drought for varying environmental conditions and species. However, a mechanism that enables stomata to optimally close in response to water limitations, and more precisely to a drop in the ability of the soil-plant continuum to sustain the transpiration demand, is not known. Here, we propose a model of stomatal regulation that is linked to abscisic acid (ABA) dynamics (production, degradation and transport) and that allows plants to avoid excessive drops in leaf water potential during soil drying and increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The model assumes that: 1) stomatal conductance (gs) decreases when ABA concentration close to the guard cells (CABA) increases; 2) CABA increases with decreasing leaf water potential (due to higher production); and 3) CABA decreases with increasing photosynthesis (e.g. due to faster degradation or transport to the phloem). Our model includes simulations of leaf water potential based on transpiration rate, soil water potential and variable hydraulic conductances of key elements (rhizosphere, root and xylem), and a function linking stomatal conductance to assimilation. It was tested for different soil properties and VPD. The model predicts that stomata close when the relation between assimilation and leaf water potential becomes nonlinear. In wet soil conditions and low VPD, when there is no water limitation, this nonlinearity is controlled by the relation between stomatal conductance and assimilation. In dry soil conditions, when the soil hydraulic conductivity limits the water supply, nonlinearity is controlled by the excessive drop of leaf water potential for increasing transpiration rates. The model predicts different relations between stomatal conductance and leaf water potential for varying soil properties and VPD. For instance, the closure of stomata is more abrupt in sandy soil, reflecting the steep decrease in hydraulic conductivity of sandy soils. In summary, our model results in an optimal behavior, in which stomatal closure avoids excessive (nonlinear) decrease in leaf water potential, similar to other stomatal optimization models. As based on ABA concentration which increases with decreasing leaf water potential but declines with assimilation, this model is a preliminary attempt to link optimization models to a physiological mechanism.

How to cite: Wankmüller, F., Zarebanadkouki, M., and Carminati, A.: A model of stomatal closure driven by nonlinearities in soil-plant hydraulics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12524, 2021.

EGU21-16434 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Modeling root water uptake depth driven by climate and soil texture using a simple bucket model approach

Ruth Adamczewski, Sven Westermann, and Anke Hildebrandt

Root water uptake (RWU) in grasslands is determined by species composition, climate and soil hydraulic properties. Generally, plant communities are adapted to their environment, showing different rooting patterns along climate gradients. Due to climate change, ecosystems are exposed to shifts in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures, causing the need to adapt rooting strategies. RWU is mainly driven by plant transpiration and soil hydraulic status in the rooting zone. Soil hydraulic properties depend strongly on soil texture, which has been observed to influence rooting depth, increasing the root length from fine to coarse soils. Secondly, precipitation patterns affect the typical soil moisture status, and subsequently the rooting depth. Global models suggest that in dry environments RWU should move deeper, to enhance the plant available soil water. However, few studies have at the same time considered the effect of climate and soil properties on RWU depth, although soil properties vary substantially and probably more than precipitation patterns due to climate change.

Biogeochemical models suffer from uncertainty in subsurface hydrological processes, RWU being an important part of it. Thus, ecohydrological models are needed for an integration in larger context biogeochemical models. The trend of ecological models is towards high parameterized models, implying high uncertainty and challenging calibration for those parameters. Especially in the subsurface, parameters are often unknown and are usually impossible to derive from direct measurements. In this project, a simple, parsimonious bucket model was implemented, solving the water balance equation for a multi-layer soil profile. The objective of this work is to predict maximum required RWU depth required to satisfy potential evapotranspiration across established experimental grassland sites with different climate and soil water retention properties. For this we use soil moisture measurements, textures and hydraulic properties determined in three grassland sites of the Nutrient-Network (NutNet) across a climate gradient. We test the sensitivity of the model towards climate and soil hydraulic parameters. First model results show a high sensitivity of RWU depth besides to dynamics to climate, also to soil water retention determined by texture and organic matter content in the soils.

How to cite: Adamczewski, R., Westermann, S., and Hildebrandt, A.: Modeling root water uptake depth driven by climate and soil texture using a simple bucket model approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16434, 2021.

EGU21-9899 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Near stream groundwater table fluctuations impact transpiration rates of riparian plants: a field study with stomatal conductance and dendrometry measurements

Stefano Martinetti, Simone Fatichi, Marius Floriancic, Paolo Burlando, and Peter Molnar

Vegetation establishment, growth, and succession in riparian ecosystems are linked to river and groundwater dynamics. This is especially true in Alpine gravel-bed rivers with wide floodplains and a strong river-aquifer exchange. Here we provide data evidence of riparian plant response to short-term groundwater table fluctuations in a braided gravel-bed river (Maggia). We used indirect physiological variables for photosynthesis and transpiration – stomatal conductance gs and daily variation in stem diameter ΔDd – which we measured at six mature riparian trees of the Salicaceae family, one Populus nigra and one Alnus incana specimen at two sites during two growing seasons. The site where gs measurements were conducted showed a greater depth to groundwater with higher variability compared to the site were dendrometers were placed.

We analysed the data by means of two different random forest regression algorithms for the two study sites. One with the transpiration-induced daily tree diameter drop during the growing season 2017 as the dependent variable, and one with the raw gs measurement sequence, obtained on 10 days throughout the growing season 2019, as the dependent variable. In both algorithms the independent variables consisted of meteorological measures (locally measured and at valley scale) and of groundwater and river stages near the individual plants. We also separated the gs measurements into low and high groundwater stage conditions observed during the gs field campaign and applied traditional regression analysis of gs on vapor pressure deficit VPD and global radiation rg for the 2 groundwater stage conditions separately.

The data analyses demonstrate that:

(a) short-term variation of the groundwater table affects riparian vegetation: at the site with deeper groundwater, the water table depth was the best predictor of gs variability, while at the site with shallower groundwater, temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the best predictors of ΔDd  variability;

(b) instantaneous stomatal conductance is related to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but conditioned by groundwater levels, with higher stomatal conductance for the same radiative input and VPD when the water table was higher.

(c) local micro-climate measured at tree locations had a stronger predictive power for gs than valley scale climate, suggesting local climate may be an important control on vegetated stands on gravel bars.

Even though the considered plants are located in close proximity to the river and could be considered to be unaffected by water stress, our analysis provides evidence of riparian trees undertaking physiological adjustments to transpiration in response to groundwater stage, depending on their riparian floodplain settings. In the heavily regulated Maggia river this has implications on the minimum flow release by dams, as prolonged periods of low water stage in the river will lead to a decrease in groundwater stage, and subsequently in reduced growth of phreatophytic riparian plants on the floodplain. We argue such plant-scale measurements should be helpful for the optimisation of flow release levels in regulated riparian systems.

How to cite: Martinetti, S., Fatichi, S., Floriancic, M., Burlando, P., and Molnar, P.: Near stream groundwater table fluctuations impact transpiration rates of riparian plants: a field study with stomatal conductance and dendrometry measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9899, 2021.

EGU21-1665 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Climate and land use influences on changing spatiotemporal patterns of mountain vegetation cover in southwest China

Shanshan Jiang, Xi Chen, Keith Smettem, and Tiejun Wang

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetative cover in relation to climate and land uses is essential for effective management of ecology and the environment. In this study, spatial and temporal changes of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and potential influencing factors were analyzed in different elevations and land uses across southwest China. Results showed: (1) there was a critical elevation of 3400 m, with different NDVI responses to climate and human interventions above and below 3400 m. Below 3400 m, mean NDVI in each land use area and the whole region did not change with elevation due to compensative effects of decreasing cultivated land and increasing woodland and grassland towards high elevations. Above 3400 m, cultivation effectively ceases. NDVI decreased with elevation as alpine plant species shifted from woody trees to alpine grass, primarily related to declining temperature towards high altitudes. (2) NDVI responses to climate change and human activities are also different above and below 3400 m. NDVI below 3400 m increased significantly after 1980s, primarily as a result of reforestation on hillslopes and improved agricultural productivity. Above 3400 m, under climate warming since the 1980s, NDVI did not increase significantly in 1990s and even decreased in 2000s as the consecutive rise of temperature is higher towards higher altitudes in the 2000s. (3) The area-weighted NDVIs illustrated that from 1980s to 2000s, the increased mean NDVI in the whole region arose from contributions of 20.93, 60.66 and 18.41% changes in NDVIs in cultivated land, woodland and grassland, respectively. In 2000s, the proportion of the woody trees contribution to NDVI increased due to reforestation in the low elevation area (<3400 m), but decreased due to shift of the woody trees to alpine grass under the consecutive climate warming in the high elevation area (>3400 m). The decease of NDVI in the high elevations did not alter increasing trend of NDVI across the whole region during 1982-2015. However, in future, the greening could diminish or even cease as climate warming continues and effects of artificially managed ecological restoration reduce.

How to cite: Jiang, S., Chen, X., Smettem, K., and Wang, T.: Climate and land use influences on changing spatiotemporal patterns of mountain vegetation cover in southwest China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1665, 2021.

EGU21-16287 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

WATZON: the Italian network of ecohydrology and critical zone observatories 

Marco Borga, Daniele Penna, Nasta Paolo, Comiti Francesco, Stefano Ferraris, Riccardo Rigon, Carolina Allocca, Anam Amin, Giacomo Bertoldi, Stefano Brighenti, Davide Canone, Giorgio Cassiani, Matteo Censini, Concetta D'Amato, Ginevra Fabiani, Alessio Gentile, Chiara Marchina, Nunzio Romano, Stellato Luisa, and Zuecco Giulia

The Italian initiative WATZON (WATer mixing in the critical ZONe) is a network of instrumented sites, bringing together six pre-existing long-term research observatories monitoring different compartments of the Critical Zone - the Earth's permeable near-surface layer from the tops of the trees to the bottom of the groundwater.  These observatories cover different climatic and physiographic characteristics over the country, providing information over a climate and eco-hydrologic transect connecting the Mediterranean to the Alps. With specific initial scientific questions, monitoring strategies, databases, and modeling activities, the WATZON observatories and sites is well representative of the heterogeneity of the critical zone and of the scientific communities studying it. Despite this diversity, all WATZON sites share a common eco-hydrologic monitoring and modelling program with three main objectives:

1) assessing the description of water mixing process across the critical zone by using integrated high-resolution isotopic, geophysical and hydrometeorological measurements from point to catchment scale, under different physiographic conditions and climate forcing;

2) testing water exchange mechanisms between subsurface reservoirs and vegetation, and assessing ecohydrological dynamics in different environments by coupling the high-resolution data set from different critical zone study sites of the initiative with advanced ecohydrological models at multiple spatial scales;

3) developing a process-based conceptual framework of ecohydrological processes in the critical zone to translate scientific knowledge into evidence to support policy and management decisions concerning water and land use in forested and agricultural ecosystems.

This work provides an overview of the WATZON network, its objectives, scientific questions, and data management, with a specific focus on existing initiatives for linking data and models based on WATZON data.

 

How to cite: Borga, M., Penna, D., Paolo, N., Francesco, C., Ferraris, S., Rigon, R., Allocca, C., Amin, A., Bertoldi, G., Brighenti, S., Canone, D., Cassiani, G., Censini, M., D'Amato, C., Fabiani, G., Gentile, A., Marchina, C., Romano, N., Luisa, S., and Giulia, Z.: WATZON: the Italian network of ecohydrology and critical zone observatories , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16287, 2021.

EGU21-2879 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Hydrological effects of combining Italian alder and blackberry in an agroforestry system in South Africa

Svenja Hoffmeister, Rafael Bohn Reckziegel, Florian Kestel, Rebekka Maier, Jonathan P. Sheppard, and Sibylle K. Hassler

Water limitation provides the potential to hinder the productivity of agricultural systems especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In agroforestry systems interactions between trees and crops range from mutually beneficial to critically competing, shaping the demand for resources, such as water. In this study, we investigated the hydrological effects of an Italian Alder (Alnus cordata) windbreak on an irrigated blackberry plantation near Stellenbosch, South Africa. We determine the key components of the water budget in the system and compare them at two positions: alongside the windbreak, and amongst the crop away from the windbreak’s influence.

We measured soil water content depth profiles in the summer months, from October 2019 to March 2020, in both locations with four consecutive time domain reflectometry (TDR) tube sensors, each integrating over 20 cm depth. Potential evapotranspiration (ET) was estimated from site based meteorological observations. We surveyed and classified the local soil, and defined soil chemical and physical properties (e.g. texture, matrix potential). The windbreak structure was measured on a single tree basis (e.g. tree height, volume and biomass) using manual and terrestrial laser scanning methodologies.

The data indicate that high potential ET, caused by high summer temperatures and strong winds, dominates the water budget at the study site, exceeding the water input of the drip irrigation. We found differences in the water dynamics between the two sites, e.g. greater soil water content at greater distances from the windbreak. Possible reasons are: (1) the water demand of trees increases underground competition for water, and/or; (2) microclimatic conditions closer to the windbreak increase ET. Modelling of the windbreak influence on the ET and further analysis of water fluxes will be conducted as next steps to combine the results from the sensors and the joint field campaign.

How to cite: Hoffmeister, S., Bohn Reckziegel, R., Kestel, F., Maier, R., Sheppard, J. P., and Hassler, S. K.: Hydrological effects of combining Italian alder and blackberry in an agroforestry system in South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2879, 2021.

EGU21-9525 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Transpiration rates of pine (Pinus brutia) and cypress (Cupressus sempervirens) trees in a Mediterranean mixed plantation forest 

Hakan Djuma, Adriana Bruggeman, Marinos Eliades, Panagiota Venetsanou, Christos Zoumides, and Melpomeni Siakou

Mixed species forest stands have been advocated over monoculture stands for afforestation around the globe as they can be more resilient to pests and diseases. However, in arid and semi-arid regions, whether such forests are suitable for future climate conditions remains to be addressed. The overall objective of this study is to analyze ecohydrological processes of indigenous, drought-tolerant tree species in a Mediterranean mixed plantation forest. The specific objectives are i) to quantify transpiration of pine (Pinus brutia) and cypress (Cupressus sempervirens) trees and ii) to analyze the effects of environmental variables (meteorology and soil moisture) on transpiration. The study site is located in Athalassa Forest Park, in Cyprus. The site has a surface area of 10 ha with an average slope of 4%. Average annual rainfall is 315 mm with a mean daily minimum temperature of 5° C during winter and a mean daily maximum temperature of 37° C during summer. The site was converted in 2011 from rainfed agriculture to a mixed forest by planting seedlings of different tree and shrub species. The study site is located on two sedimentary formations: Athalassa (calcarenites interlayered with sandy marls) and Nicosia (siltstones and layers of calcarenites). Soil depths up to 1 m can be found on top of the impervious and semi-pervious strata. 

The research field was stratified in two spatial geological units (strata). In each stratum, two P. brutia and two C. sempervirens trees were randomly selected (total eight trees) for sap flow monitoring with sensors (heat ratio method) attached to the tree trunks. In addition to the random trees, two representative (one per species) neighboring trees were selected where sap-flow sensors were installed and mid-day leaf water potential (pressure chamber) and stomatal conductance (porometer) were measured. Forty-five soil moisture sensors were installed between the representative trees at depths of 10 cm, 30 cm and 50 cm.

Data from November 2020 to January 2021 indicated that mean sap flow rate per tree (cm3 h-1) is higher for C. sempervirens (min: 161, max: 503) than P. brutia (min: 68, max: 266). Total rainfall during these months was 88 mm, most of which fell in three main rainfall events (between 20 and 30 mm per event). Mean soil moisture before rain (15-day average) was 5% for all soil depths. After the rain, soil moisture was 12% for 10 and 30 cm depths and 8% for 50 cm. The increase in soil moisture resulted in 1.6 times higher transpiration for C. sempervirens and 1.4 times higher transpiration for P. brutia. The leaf water potential of C. sempervirens increased from -2.6 MPa before the rain to -0.8 MPa after the rain, whereas it remained near -0.5 MPa for P. brutia. This research of the different plant water-use strategies can contribute to an improved selection of species for afforestation in arid and semi-arid regions.

This research has received support from the Water JPI (Joint Call 2018) FLUXMED Project, funded through the Cyprus Research and Innovation Foundation.

How to cite: Djuma, H., Bruggeman, A., Eliades, M., Venetsanou, P., Zoumides, C., and Siakou, M.: Transpiration rates of pine (Pinus brutia) and cypress (Cupressus sempervirens) trees in a Mediterranean mixed plantation forest , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9525, 2021.

EGU21-9060 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Influence of trees and topography on soil water content in semi-arid region, the case of an agro-silvo-pastoral ecosystem dominated by Faidherbia albida (Senegal)

Djim Diongue, Didier Orange, Waly Faye, Olivier Roupsard, Frederic Do, Christophe Jourdan, Christine Stumpp, Awa Niang Fall, and Serigne Faye

Vegetation strongly affects the water cycle, and the interactions between vegetation and soil moisture are fundamental for ecological processes in semiarid regions. Therefore, characterizing the variation in soil moisture is important to understand the ecological sustainability of cropping systems towards food security. The present study aims at exploring factors and mechanisms influencing soil moisture variability in the Faidherbia albida (FA) parkland at Sob basin located in the center of Senegal [1]. Volumetric soil moisture content at multiple depths was monitored at 15 locations distributed along a transect (upper slope, mid-slope and lower slope) and different FA tree position (under, at the limit and outside canopy) from August to October 2020. A portable TRIME Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) Tube Probe (IMKO, Germany) was used to determine soil volumetric moisture content while being placed at specific depth intervals inside a PVC access tube set up at each location. Soil moisture was monitored at 10 cm interval from 20 to 420 cm during the rainy season from July to October 2020. Results of soil moisture profiles along the transects exhibit two main zones based on the standard deviation (SD) and the inflection of the coefficient of variation (CV): shallow soil moisture (SSM) and deep soil moisture (DSM). For SSM observed at 20-60 cm of the soil layer, both mean soil moisture and SD increase with depth, the lowest mean value (8%) being observed at the top surface. This soil layer is influenced by rainfall infiltration and daily evaporation. For DSM observed at 70-420 cm, the moisture pattern can be further divided into 4 soil sublayers taking the mean soil moisture vertical distribution as reference: (i) a rainfall infiltration layer (70-160 cm) which appears mainly influenced by cumulative rainfall infiltration in addition to transpiration of grassland and crops (shallow root system); (ii) a rainfall-transpiration layer (170-250 cm) which is still an infiltration layer but more influenced by crops transpiration; (iii) a transpiration layer (260-350 cm) which can be recharged by rainfall infiltration during heavy rainfall and supply deep root system; and (iv) deep transpiration layer (360-400 cm) which has DSM that can be influenced by extremely deep root vegetation such as FA. The factors influencing the soil water content varied with the topography. The soil water content SWC (mean and median value of 27.2 and 29.6% respectively) in the lower slope was significantly higher than that at middle (mean and median value of 14.4 and 13.2 % respectively) and upper slope (mean and median value of 16.8 and 18.4 % respectively). At last, soil water content was positively correlated with the distance from the FA, regardless the slope. The higher water content for both SSM and DSM was observed outside the FA canopy. This result refutes the initial hypothesis of higher SWC under trees and support a more detailed analysis of the infiltration capacity in relationship with the FA position.

[1] Faidherbia-Flux : https://lped.info/wikiObsSN/?Faidherbia-Flux

How to cite: Diongue, D., Orange, D., Faye, W., Roupsard, O., Do, F., Jourdan, C., Stumpp, C., Fall, A. N., and Faye, S.: Influence of trees and topography on soil water content in semi-arid region, the case of an agro-silvo-pastoral ecosystem dominated by Faidherbia albida (Senegal), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9060, 2021.

EGU21-8048 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Impact of combined nitrogen loading and long-term drought on a semi-natural temperate grassland - achieving a process based understanding across scales

Maren Dubbert, Angelika Kübert, Arndt Piayda, Christiane Werner, and Youri Rothfuss

Two important threats to the sustainable functioning of seminatural grasslands in temperate zones are (1) nutrient loading due to agricultural fertilization and pollution, and (2) the increase of extreme drought events due to climate change. These threats may cause substantial shifts in species diversity and abundance and considerably affect the carbon and water balance of ecosystems. The synergistic effects between those two threats, however, can be complex and are poorly understood. Here, we experimentally investigated the effects of nitrogen addition and extreme drought (separately and in combination) on a seminatural temperate grassland, located in Freiburg (South Germany). To study the grassland response, we combined eddy-covariance techniques with open gas exchange systems. Open gas exchange chambers were connected to an infrared gas analyzer and water isotope spectrometer, which allowed the partitioning of net ecosystem exchange and evapotranspiration. In addition, leaf level physiological responses, e.g. leaf gas-exchange and water potentials, as well as vegetation parameters, e.g. species richness, species abundance, leaf area index, were assessed.

Our results suggest that grassland communities, strongly weakened in their stress response by nitrogen loading, can substantially lose their carbon sink function during drought. Over the growing season (April-September), the carbon sequestration of the studied grassland was reduced by more than 60% as a consequence of nitrogen addition. Nitrogen addition in combination with precipitation reduction decreased carbon sequestration by 73%. We observed more efficient N utilization in grasses compared to forbs. However, these clearly specific responses of the different functional groups to N loading, both functional groups were able to maintain homeostasis of leaf carbon and water fluxes. Thus, strong declines in the (community) carbon sequestration and water use efficiency were not related to leaf physiological responses in assimilation and transpiration. Instead, nitrogen addition caused a significant loss in forb species (−25%) and precipitation reduction promoted a strong dominance of grass species at season start. Consequently, the resulting grass-dominated and species-poor community suffered from a strong above-ground dieback during the dry summer months, likely caused by lower water use efficiency and weaker drought adaptations of the species community. 

Eutrophication can severely threaten the resilient functioning of grasslands, in particular when drought periods will increase as predicted by future climate scenarios. Our findings emphasize the importance of preserving high diversity of grasslands to strengthen their resistance against extreme events such as droughts.

How to cite: Dubbert, M., Kübert, A., Piayda, A., Werner, C., and Rothfuss, Y.: Impact of combined nitrogen loading and long-term drought on a semi-natural temperate grassland - achieving a process based understanding across scales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8048, 2021.

EGU21-4280 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

The influence of landscape spatial arrangement on nitrogen and phosphorus export in agricultural catchments

Rémi Dupas, Antoine Casquin, Sen Gu, Gérard Gruau, and Patrick Durand

Nitrogen and Phosphorus losses from rural landscapes can cause eutrophication of inland and coastal waters. Here, we assessed the influence of the spatial configuration of nutrient sources on nitrate (NO3-) and total phosphorus (TP) exports at the catchment scale. We analyzed NO3- and TP in 19 headwater catchments (1 -14 km²) fortnightly during 17 months. The study catchments had similar soil type, climate, and farming systems but differed in their landscape composition (% agricultural land-use) and spatial configuration (field distance to streams & intersection with flow accumulation zones). We propose a landscape configuration index (LCI) that describes the spatial configuration of nutrient sources with regards to their hydrological distance to streams and flow accumulation zones. The LCI has two parameters that we calibrated to maximize rank correlation with median concentrations of TP and NO3-. Results showed that NO3- exports were correlated with %agricultural land-use whereas TP exports were better explained by the spatial configuration of agricultural fields. For a given landscape composition, landscape spatial configuration was highly heterogeneous at small scales (<10 km2) but became homogeneous at larger scales (>50 km2). This could explain why relationships between landscape composition and water quality parameters influenced by landscape spatial configuration break down below a certain size threshold.

How to cite: Dupas, R., Casquin, A., Gu, S., Gruau, G., and Durand, P.: The influence of landscape spatial arrangement on nitrogen and phosphorus export in agricultural catchments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4280, 2021.

EGU21-12634 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Dimensioning of riparian buffer zones in agricultural catchments at national level

Evelyn Uuemaa, Ain Kull, Kiira Mõisja, Hanna-Ingrid Nurm, and Alexander Kmoch

Intensive agricultural production interferes with natural cycles of nutrients (mostly nitrogen and phosphorus) and may lead to water quality degradation due to excessive nutrient loadings. To mitigate this effect at the landscape level establishment of buffering vegetated strips is an efficient measure.

Recommending optimal widths for riparian buffer zones to reduce the agricultural runoff is still a challenging task, in particular when considering the spatial variability of the landscape. Empirical-based approaches include assessment of terrain, soil types, land use and vegetation, and are often realised in computationally expensive hydrological simulation. However, trade-offs have to be made between spatial resolution and areal extent. Another elegant empirical-based approach are nomographs, where via triangulation of a specific slope length, terrain slope and soil type recommended buffer width can be easily calculated. Mander and Kuusemets (1998) already developed such a nomograph for Estonian catchments in 1998, yet, a computational use case has not been explored.

We implemented the nomograph as a GIS algorithm in Python/QGIS to retrieve the recommended buffer width at national level. We synthesized a specific slope length via a weighted average of flow length, local flow accumulation and LS factor, and then use the specific slope length, slope derived from 5 m spatial resolution DEM and soil texture classes as inputs for the algorithm. We applied this algorithm and calculated recommendable buffer strip widths for the whole of country of Estonia, over an area of approx. 43,000 km2. We evaluated the uncertainty of the results as well the algorithm’s sensitivity to input weights.

The developed algorithm is applicable in any region with relevant adjustments to local soil types. The result directly informs policy making by being able to more specifically decide and explain variations of buffer zone widths along water bodies.

How to cite: Uuemaa, E., Kull, A., Mõisja, K., Nurm, H.-I., and Kmoch, A.: Dimensioning of riparian buffer zones in agricultural catchments at national level, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12634, 2021.

Combating eutrophication requires holistic mitigation measures aimed at reducing agricultural losses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from field sources to aquatic systems. This need will become critical in the future as increased flashiness, expected from changing climate and growing food demand, will further accelerate N and P pollution. Agricultural headwater streams are the main entry point of diffuse nutrient and particulate losses to stream networks. These streams are often channelized with a trapezoidal design, which effectively convey excess water from fields but also nutrients and soil particles to recipient water bodies. In addition, trapezoidal ditches with steep stream banks are sensitive to erosion and require routinely dredging to maintain their drainage function.

This project will advance the knowledge of processes governing nutrient and sediment retention in agricultural streams in Sweden by focusing on two-stage ditches (SDs) which are new type of mitigation measure. In SDs, the stream channel is surrounded by incised floodplains that increase the hydrological connectivity between stream and riparian zone during high flows. When floodplains are inundated, water residence time increases which allow deposition of suspended particles and biogeochemical processing of nutrients and organic matter. With slower water velocities in SDs at high flows, bank erosion may also be minimized. Existing studies in the US and Finland have found that SDs can mitigate N, P and sediment losses, compared with traditional trapezoidal ditches. This project is the first of its kind to evaluate the efficiency and stability of 10 different SDs in Swedish conditions over 3 years, situated in catchments with diverse agricultural land use and soil characteristics.

In this presentation, we show the details of experimental setup and preliminary results. A sampling has been setup in SD reaches to monitor seasonal sedimentation rate and aggradation since construction. This is coupled with both low- and high-frequency water quality monitoring and measurements of nitrogenous gas emissions from denitrification in sediments. We discuss the success factors in terms of placement and design of SDs to enhance ecosystem functions (self-purification, erosion and flood prevention). These factors determine SDs’ effectiveness in retention of water, N, P and sediments and their suitability as mitigation measure.

How to cite: Hallberg, L. and Bieroza, M.: Improving understanding of hydrological and biogeochemical processes controlling the effectiveness of two-stage ditches in reducing eutrophication, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13103, 2021.

EGU21-4082 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Ecosystem services provided by groundwater dependent wetlands in Irish karst 

Fabio Massimo Delle Grazie and Laurence Gill

Turloughs, the focus of this study, are ephemeral lakes and they are mostly groundwater dependent. They are present mostly in Ireland and have been compared hydrologically to polje for the period inundation and lacustrine deposits. They are flooded for some periods across the year (typically in the winter) but usually dry up in summer months. Turloughs are protected under the Water Framework Directive (WFD, Directive 2000/60/EC) and the EU Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC). Ecosystem services can be defined as the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems sustain and fulfil human life. These can be classified as provisioning, regulating, and cultural and examples of them are water and raw materials production, flood risk attenuation, carbon sequestration. The determination of the ecosystem services can help analyse different scenarios linked to pressures like road drainage schemes, water supply and wastewater disposal.

 

Seven turloughs (Blackrock, Lough Coy, Lough Aleenaun, Lough Gealain, Caranavoodaun, Skealoghan, Coolcam) have been selected from a previous study and samples of waters were collected monthly to determine carbon and nutrients. Carbon and nutrients were also determined on soil samples taken from the turlough catchment. The overwhelming majority of wetlands act as long-term sinks for CO2. To determine whether this is the case for some of the turloughs in the study, greenhouse gases from soils and water were monitored and balances were worked out. Ecosystem services were quantified through various models which had to be adapted to the special conditions present in the turloughs.

 

The seven turloughs have different hydrological characteristics. Hydrology is the main driver of vegetation distribution therefore ommunities are distributed in zones arranged along the flooding gradient. Aquatic invertebrates also show a succession of communities through the hydroperiod.

 

The seven turloughs studied provide a variety of hydrological characteristics, habitat, soil and vegetation and offer different ecosystem services. Each ecosystem service was quantified using appropriate models. Almost all the turloughs are at risk from anthropic activities and potentially from climate change. Important ecosystem services for these turloughs are flood mitigation, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration, habitat preservation and recreational activities.

How to cite: Delle Grazie, F. M. and Gill, L.: Ecosystem services provided by groundwater dependent wetlands in Irish karst , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4082, 2021.

EGU21-2795 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Mediterranean Temporary Ponds: using isotope hydrology tools to describe and understand their behaviour

Alexandra Mattei, Laurent Sorba, Emilie Garel, Sebastien Santoni, Sophie Orsini, and Frédéric Huneau

Mediterranean temporary ponds are very shallow ponds, isolated from permanent water bodies, which undergo a periodic cycle of flooding and drought, and have a characteristic flora and fauna adapted to this alternation. This habitat is mainly distributed in dry and sub-arid areas. Mediterranean temporary ponds are identified as one of the worldwide biodiversity hotspots and constitutes therefore a priority habitats according to the Natura 2000 network of the European Union (3170*, Council Directive 92/43/CEE). The development of flora and fauna in this type of ecosystem is defined by the natural length of the hydro-period. However, little is known about the hydrological functioning of these very specific hydrosystems. DespiteHS10 this protective conservation status, this habitat has suffered continuous degradation and loss disappearing at a fast rate due anthropogenic impacts and climate pressures. In most cases, temporary wetland disappearance is unintentional and related to a lack of understanding of its hydrological functioning within the watershed.

The aim of this work is, hence, to use the tools of the isotope hydrology to increase our basic understanding of the hydrological functioning of the Mediterranean temporary ponds. Our study focuses on the Musella temporary pond located in Southern Corsica (France) which undergoes important man-induced and climatic pressures. During one full hydrological cycle, surface and groundwater levels, major ions, stable isotopes of the water molecules as well as field parameters (temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen) have been measured every month.

Results bring information on the water quality, chemical stability and temporal evolution in terms of surface water level as well as potential connection with the underlying carbonated aquifer. The stable isotopes inform about the origin of water, its mixing processes with groundwater, and its evaporative status through time.

Flooding and drying processes of the Musella temporary pond are now better constrained and documented projections can now be set up towards the resilience of the hydrosystem considering the future consequences of climate change in the Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Mattei, A., Sorba, L., Garel, E., Santoni, S., Orsini, S., and Huneau, F.: Mediterranean Temporary Ponds: using isotope hydrology tools to describe and understand their behaviour, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2795, 2021.

EGU21-3629 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Streamflow change induced by climate change and vegetation recover in a karst region of southwest China

Lianbin Cai, Xi Chen, and Zhicai Zhang

In carbonate rock regions, the bedrock compositions strongly influence regolith properties that, in turn, might play the primary role in plant growth and hydrological processes. Since bedrock experiences uneven weathering processes due to different regolith materials in a karst area, how hydrological functions of bedrock layer and overlying vegetation rely on the bedrock weathering degree is seldom investigated. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change and reforestation on runoff in a watershed with two main bedrocks (dissolvable carbonate rock in karst area and detrital rock in non-karst area) in southwest China. The analyses are firstly executed by decomposion of the hydro-meteorological series into two series (T1, 1992-2003 and T2, 2004-2015), which have different hydro-meteorological responses due to reforestation. This study investigates the impacts of climate change and reforestation on runoff using two approaches: the sensitivity-based approach (Budyko hypothesis) is applied to estimate the overall watershed change in runoff attributed to human activities and climate change, and a distributed hydrological model based on simple soil water balance routing is used to estimate change in runoff and hydrographs in the two main bedrock areas. The results show that the hydrological modelling overestimates climate induced decrease of streamflow (88.6%), compared to estimated result by the Budyko formula (76.6%). The decrease of mean precipitation from T1 to T2 in the non-carbonate area is very close to the carbonate area, the proportion of the climate change induced decrease of streamflow in the non-carbonate area (86.3%) is less than the carbonate area (90.5%), indicating that the drier climate tendency takes a greater effect on decrease of streamflow in the carbonate area than the non-carbonate area. By contrast, there is a greater alteration of land cover/use in the non-carbonate area than the carbonate area. These findings will help develop a better understanding of the impact of climate change and reforestation on runoff in southwest China.

How to cite: Cai, L., Chen, X., and Zhang, Z.: Streamflow change induced by climate change and vegetation recover in a karst region of southwest China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3629, 2021.

EGU21-4360 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

An operational method for the ecohydrological classification of temporary rivers and streams

Francesc Gallart, Núria Cid, Pilar Llorens, Jérôme Latron, Núria Bonada, Maria Soria, and Narcís Prat

Water courses that recurrently cease to flow represent a large part of drainage networks, and are expected to expand with global warming and increased exploitation of water resources. Common classifications of the regime of these temporary streams are based on the statistics of zero flow events. This is partly practical because these statistics can be obtained from flow records or model simulations and the results can be used for some environmental regulations or management purposes.

Nevertheless, it is well known that the main hydrological control on riverine aquatic life is the presence-absence of water rather than its flow regime. Disconnected pools that frequently remain in temporary streams after flow cessation provide valuable refuges for aquatic life, which can last up to all year round. An operational characterisation of the hydrological regime of temporary streams useful for ecological purposes must therefore take into account at least the three main aquatic phases that they undergo: flow, disconnected pools and dry stream bed. However, gauging stations and the derived hydrological models may only marginally inform about the possible occurrence of disconnected pools after the cessation of flow.

In order to facilitate the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive to the temporary streams, an operational approach has been developed to describe and classify the regime of temporary streams and to assess their degree of hydrologic alteration, relevant to aquatic life. This approach is encapsulated in the freely available TREHS software. The first step of this approach is the gathering of information on the frequency of the three aquatic phases using diverse sources of information, such as flow records and simulations, in situ observations, interpretation of aerial or terrestrial series of photographs, and interviews with local inhabitants or technicians familiar with the riverine systems. Up to six metrics describing these frequencies and their temporal patterns of occurrence are used to determine the natural and observed stream regime, and to assess the degree of hydrological alteration.

The combination of the complementary frequencies of the three main aquatic phases allows the description of the regime of every stream as a point in a ternary plot, where the three vertices of the triangle represent the perennial streams, the perennial pools and the terrestrial systems, respectively. This ternary plot assists the classification of the regime of any stream that takes into account the statistics of the main proxies of the occurrence of aquatic habitats. The TREHS software also provides a classification of the regimes in the ternary plot that groups the regimes of assumed ecological significance and uses terms that are conflict-free from the current classifications. Furthermore, TREHS users can easily define new regime classes in this plot according to the ecohydrological characteristics of their streams.

How to cite: Gallart, F., Cid, N., Llorens, P., Latron, J., Bonada, N., Soria, M., and Prat, N.: An operational method for the ecohydrological classification of temporary rivers and streams, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4360, 2021.

EGU21-13391 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

The salt route through time and space: Following horizontal and lateral intrusion of brackish surface water into a natural floating root mat and its plant community.

Milou Huizinga, Rien Aerts, Richard S.P. van Logtestijn, Sjoerd E.A.T.M. van der Zee, and Jan-Philip M. Witte

Salinizing surface water is a large problem worldwide. In many areas agriculture is dependent on surface water irrigation, but there is an increasing fresh water scarcity. Due to natural and anthropogenic processes the salt concentration of surface water has risen and this problem is predicted to increase in the future. Prioritizing on when fresh water is needed and when brackish or salt water could be possible is therefor necessary. However, this holds not only for agricultural systems, but also for natural areas which are currently overlooked. In deltaic areas – such as The Netherlands – sea water is flowing further inland via rivers during summer. In addition to this, in the hinterland, artificial drainage of low-lying polders leads to a salt groundwater surplus that is discharged into rivers and surface water reservoirs. These processes lead to salinization and could potentially affect plant biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in surface water fed ecosystems, wetlands, and riparian zones. One of such a surface water fed ecosystems is an abandoned turf extraction site ‘De Botshol’ in The Netherlands. Floating root mats have developed from peat baulks into the open water of old turf ponds. These mats can harbor a great deal of protected terrestrial, typically glycophyte (i.e. optimally encountering < 300 mg Cl.l-1), plant species related to a floating fen habitat. Currently the surface water quality of Botshol is brackish and this provided us with an opportunity to follow the local salt route through space and time. Surface water salt concentrations fluctuated slightly between winter-spring: 1400 mg Cl.l-1 and summer-autumn: 1900 mg Cl.l-1 and we linked this to root zone processes and the plant community. We used a pore water extraction setup using micro- and macrorhizons placed at 30 – 60 – 200 cm from the edge of a floating root mat. Along this transect we measured at 10 – 25 – 50 – 70 cm depth. Via this setup we were able to find that the root zone salt concentrations fluctuated with surface water concentration, however there was a substantially lower salt concentration in the soil layer. Root zone concentrations still reached above 500 mg Cl.l-1 and this might explain differences in community composition in comparison with a fresh floating fen ecosystem (e.g. ‘Nieuwkoopse Plassen’, The Netherlands). We present this work to empirically link hydrology and ecology in relation to surface water salinization, but also to practically inform water boards and nature managers to understand possibilities and limitations of surface water salinization in relation to fen restoration and protection.

How to cite: Huizinga, M., Aerts, R., van Logtestijn, R. S. P., van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M., and Witte, J.-P. M.: The salt route through time and space: Following horizontal and lateral intrusion of brackish surface water into a natural floating root mat and its plant community., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13391, 2021.

The interplay between riparian vegetation and water flow in vegetated water bodies has a key role in the dynamic evolution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in wetlands and lowlands. The present study analyzes the effects of the spatial distribution of reed (Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud.) beds, an invasive riparian species extremely widespread in wetland and lowlands worldwide, on the main hydraulic and hydrodynamic properties of an abandoned vegetated reclamation channel located in Northern Tuscany, Italy. A field campaign was carried out to obtain Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of reed beds through both ground-based and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) methodologies, and to correlate them to the channel’s flow dynamic and water quality main features. Then, Hydrodynamic simulations of the vegetated reclamation channel were performed and validated based on the experimental measurements of the hydraulic and vegetational parameters acquired in the field to build up a robust model to be employed also in future Ecohydraulic researches. The evidences of this study constitute useful insights in the quantitative analysis of the correlation between the spatial distribution of riparian vegetation stands in natural and manmade vegetated water bodies and their hydrodynamic and water quality main features.

How to cite: Lama, G. F. C.: The effect of reed beds distributions on the Ecohydraulic dynamics of wetlands and lowlands: experimental analyses and simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-558, 2021.

EGU21-7119 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Insights into fish-anthropogenic pressures relationships using machine learning techniques: the case of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain)

Carlotta Valerio, Graciela Gómez Nicola, Rocío Aránzazu Baquero Noriega, Alberto Garrido, and Lucia De Stefano

Since 1970 the number of freshwater species has suffered a decline of 83% worldwide and anthropic activities are considered to be major drivers of ecosystems degradation. Linking the ecological response to the multiple anthropogenic stressors acting in the system is essential to effectively design policy measures to restore riverine ecosystems. However, obtaining quantitative links between stressors and ecological status is still challenging, given the non-linearity of the ecosystem response and the need to consider multiple factors at play. This study applies machine learning techniques to explore the relationships between anthropogenic pressures and the composition of fish communities in the river basins of Castilla-La Mancha, a region covering nearly 79 500 km² in central Spain. During the past two decades, this region has experienced an alarming decline of the conservation status of native fish species. The starting point for the analysis is a 10x10 km grid that defines for each cell the presence or absence of several fish species before and after 2001. This database was used to characterize the evolution of several metrics of fish species richness over time, accounting for the species origin (native or alien), species features (e.g. pollution tolerance) and habitat preferences. Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Regression Trees algorithms were used to relate the resulting metrics to the stressor variables describing the anthropogenic pressures acting in the rivers, such as urban wastewater discharges, land use cover, hydro-morphological degradation and the alteration of the river flow regime. The study provides new, quantitative insights into pressures-ecosystem relationships in rivers and reveals the main factors that lead to the decline of fish richness in Castilla-La Mancha, which could help inform environmental policy initiatives.

How to cite: Valerio, C., Gómez Nicola, G., Aránzazu Baquero Noriega, R., Garrido, A., and De Stefano, L.: Insights into fish-anthropogenic pressures relationships using machine learning techniques: the case of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7119, 2021.

EGU21-12564 | vPICO presentations | HS10.1

Influence of morphometric parameters and meteorological conditions on ephemeral pool hydrology in the Canadian Shield forest 

Marjolaine Roux, Marie Larocque, Philippe Nolet, and Sylvain Gagné

Ephemeral pools are geographically isolated wetlands commonly found in temperate forests of northeastern North America. These wetlands are usually hydrologically isolated from the surface water network but in some conditions can be connected to local groundwater flow. They fill at maximal capacity following spring snowmelt and dry out during summer. They contribute to forest biodiversity by providing breeding habitats for amphibians during their spring and early summer period of hydrological activity. However, ephemeral pools are poorly understood and rarely studied because of their small dimensions and temporary hydrology. This work presents the final results of a five-year study aimed to acquire new knowledge on ephemeral pool hydrology to go beyond the anecdotical pool and to understand the conditions and processes that driving their hydrology. A large number of pools (39) located in the Canadian Shield forest were instrumented to monitor hourly water level variations in the pool and in the neighboring and underlying fractured bedrock aquifer. They were also described in extensive details for their geomorphological features and water levels over a period from one to five years (April 2016 to July 2020). The first rather surprising result from this work is that, although the pools are all located in bedrock depressions, they cover a wide range of morphologies. Their maximum sizes vary from 29 to 1866 m2 and their maximal volumes vary from 4 to 654 m3. Their maximum water depths are also highly contrasted, ranging from 0.14 m to 2.03 m. The pool depressions are overlain by mineral sediments (silt to fine sand with occurrences of coarse sand and gravel) of contrasted thicknesses (0 m to 1.70 m). An organic matter layer of highly varying thickness (0.12 m to 1.24 m) was observed at all sites above the mineral sediments. Despite these varied morphological conditions, all the pools have similar hydrological patterns throughout the year and these patterns are highly resilient to meteorological conditions. They dry out between the end of May and the end of July, rapid temporary refilling during important summer rainfall events, and partially refilling in autumn following more frequent rainfall events and lower evapotranspiration. The results show that surface water levels are maintained when the underlying sediments are saturated. Otherwise, the ephemeral pools lose water by infiltration to the underlying aquifer. Water level variations within the pools are positively and significantly correlated with net precipitation (P – PET). Hydroperiods vary between 28 days (2020) and 86 days (2017), reflecting the year-to-year meteorological variability. The mean hydroperiod is significantly correlated to spring rainfall (April to June), but also to the volume of water stored in the pool, and to the pool surface area. This study provides a unique and original dataset that contribute to better understand the hydrodynamics and resilience to anthropogenic (forestry) and natural (climate change) impacts of a wetland type that is rarely studied but provide crucial habitats for forest biodiversity.

How to cite: Roux, M., Larocque, M., Nolet, P., and Gagné, S.: Influence of morphometric parameters and meteorological conditions on ephemeral pool hydrology in the Canadian Shield forest , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12564, 2021.

HS10.2 – From the source to the sea – rivers, estuaries, deltas, marshlands, and coastal seas under global change

EGU21-219 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Rapid morphological evolution during beach breaching and closure at a bar-built estuary

Mara Orescanin, Tyonna McPherson, and Paul Jessen

The Carmel River runs 58 km from the Santa Lucia Mountains through the Carmel Valley eventually entering a lagoon at Carmel River State Beach near Carmel, California, USA. During the dry summer months, the lagoon is closed, with no connection to the coastal ocean.  However, during the wet winter months, the river often breaches through the lagoon allowing water to freely flow between the river and Carmel Bay. Sediment transport, in part owing to river discharge and in part owing to ocean forcing (tides and waves), contributes heavily to whether the lagoon is open or closed: when there are low flow conditions, waves and tides can decrease flow rates in the breach, allowing sediment to settle. The sediment budget is expected to be a closed system, owing to the rocky headlands and long-term stability (no yearly regression or transgression) of the shoreline, despite managed attempts to control breach and closure timing. However, it is currently unknown 1) how velocity profiles evolve during breaching, and 2) how much sediment moves during such an event. The hypothesis is that the breach mouth can completely disappear and re-emerge over a single breach-closure cycle, leading to meter-scale daily accretion and erosion rates of berm height if berm elevation is significantly lower than the expected steady-state berm height. Furthermore, it is hypothesized that during active breaching, discharge rates through the breach channel are larger than upstream river discharge rates owing to elevated water levels within the back lagoon. This study uses a RiverSurveyor M9 Acoustic Doppler Profiler to measure outflow discharge and GPS topographic surveys to quantify elevation changes. A velocity profile can be built which will estimate the sediment transport potential within the breach. The information obtained will help identify and better understand the river discharge thresholds which contribute to frequent breaching as well as estimates of morphological evolution during breaching, which are currently unknown, and can assist in determining likelihood of successful managed breaching and closure events. 

How to cite: Orescanin, M., McPherson, T., and Jessen, P.: Rapid morphological evolution during beach breaching and closure at a bar-built estuary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-219, 2021.

EGU21-1016 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Effect of decreasing sediment supply and sea level rise on the long-term morphodynamics of a large estuary

Bing Yuan, Jian Sun, Binliang Lin, and Fanyi Zhang

Globally the riverine sediment supply to estuaries is decreasing and the mean sea level is rising, while the effects of these changes on the long-term estuarine morphodynamics have not been fully investigated. An idealized numerical model was used to explore the long-term morphodynamics of a large estuary subject to these changes. In the model, a funnel-shaped channel with fixed banks, constant riverine water and sediment fluxes, a single grain size and a semi-diurnal tide were used. A range of values of changes in the sediment supply (50-90% reduction) and sea level (1-5~mm/yr increase) were considered. Starting from an equilibrium state for an initial sediment supply, the estuary shifts to a new equilibrium for the considered changes on a timescale of millennia. Half of the bed level change occurs within several hundreds of years. A larger decrease in the sediment supply leads to a stronger bed erosion, while the corresponding adjustment time has minor changes in its range for the considered settings. When combined with sea level rise, the erosion is weakened and the adjustment time is shortened. The equilibrium state under sea level rise is characterized by a bed level keeping pace with the sea level and a significant amount of sediment being trapped in the estuary. Additional numerical experiments that use more realistic geometry and forcing of the Yangtze Estuary show that overall erosion of the estuary is expected for centuries.

How to cite: Yuan, B., Sun, J., Lin, B., and Zhang, F.: Effect of decreasing sediment supply and sea level rise on the long-term morphodynamics of a large estuary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1016, 2021.

In recent decades, the invasion of saltmarsh plant Spartina alterniflora (S. alterniflora) over a large part of coastal wetlands in China, including the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) as a regional economic hub and global ecosystem services hotspot, has caused increasing concern because of its serious threats to native ecosystems. During the same period, local authorities have implemented a Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) in the Yellow River for flood mitigation and delta restoration purposes. The altered hydrological regime has resulted in unintended changes to estuarine ecosystem. However, the direct consequence of the WSRS on the expansion of S. alterniflora remains unclear. In this study, quantitative relationship between the inter- and intra-annual expansion patterns of S. alterniflora represented by relevant landscape metrics and indicators that quantify the concurrent variations of river and sediment discharges as the proxy of the WSRS impacts were analysed over the period of Year 2011 to 2018, and the analyses were performed on the YRE as a whole and on five different zones subdivided based on the invasion sequence. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the inter-annual area variation of S. alterniflora between the years with and without WSRS. Compared with the years without WSRS (2016-2017), the intra-annual (monthly) increment of the various landscape metrics (i.e. NP (number of patches), CA (class area), LPI (largest patch index) and AI (aggregation index)) were found to be significantly higher in the initial stage of peak growing season (June-July) than in the mid- and late stages (July-September) in the years with WSRS (2011-2015, 2018) in the subregion located close to the south bank of YRE as the most prominent impact zone. In addition, F (mean flow), Ff (number of high flow pulses), Tf (Julian date of maximum flow) and D (duration of WSRS) were identified as the explanatory variables for the intra-annual vegetation landscape pattern changes, and their relative contributions to resultant changes were also assessed. Our results broaden the understanding of estuarine hydrological disturbance as a potential driver regulating the saltmarsh vegetation, and also have implications for S. alterniflora invasion control at estuaries under changing environment.

How to cite: Shao, D.: Effects of the Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) on the expansion of Spartina alterniflora at the Yellow River Estuary, China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1007, 2021.

EGU21-10150 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Linking sediment properties with conductivity values: an approach to investigate intra point bar grain-size variability in fluvial deposits

Elena Bellizia, Jacopo Boaga, Davide Tognin, Alvise Finotello, Marta Cosma, Alice Puppin, Andrea D'Alpaos, Giorgio Cassiani, and Massimiliano Ghinassi

Fluvial and fluvio-tidal meandering channels are widespread in coastal areas, where they shape the present-day landscapes and build up thick sedimentary successions. Deposits accumulated by these channels host the most surficial aquifers, which are deeply exploited by agricultural and industrial activities. Understanding sedimentary facies distribution within these deposits is crucial to predict groundwater flow and also has relevant implications for aquifer management.
This study focuses on deposits accumulated by a late Holocene meandering river of the Venetian Plain (Northeast Italy). Combining remote sensing and geophysical data, sedimentary cores, and statistical analyses, we characterize the geometry and sedimentology of two adjacent point-bar bodies, with a specific focus on along-bar sediment grain-size distribution. 
The study paleochannel is ca. 30 m wide and its planform evolution was reconstructed by analyzing the scroll-bar pattern of the related point bars from satellite images. This channel generated two meander bends, namely B1 and B2, that progressively expanded during their evolution; moreover, bend B1 was affected by a downstream rotation of the bend apex during its final stage of growth. 
Geophysical investigations (Frequency Domain Electro-Magnetometer) provided information about the electric conductivity of the studied sedimentary bodies by allowing for the visualization of horizontal 2D maps with averaged conductivity values with a vertical resolution of 1 m. Point-bar bodies are characterized by slightly lower conductivity values (7 to 80 mS/m) than channel-fill deposits (49-147 mS/m), whereas overbank deposits exhibit the highest values (115 to 300 mS/m). In the B1 point-bar, conductivity values reflect the scroll-bar pattern and are lower in the upstream and pool zones, whereas, in the B2 point-bar, the conductivity exhibits almost uniform horizontal values at each depth.
Sedimentary cores reveal that the two point bars consist of well-sorted sands, ranging from fine to very coarse sand, with no heterolithic deposits. Bar deposits cover a basal lag consisting of very coarse sand with shell fragments. Channel-fill deposits are made of fine to very fine sand with muddy intercalations. Overbank deposits consist of massive mud, which is locally organic-rich.
The combination of core analysis and conductivity maps highlights a correlation between conductivity values and sediment textural properties, revealing that finer sediments (i.e., mud in overbank areas) are more conductive than coarser ones (i.e., sand in the point-bar bodies). These observations provide information about the spatial distribution of grain size at different depths, showing the occurrence of different vertical grain-size trends within point-bar deposits. Moreover, statistical analyses reveal that the conductivity values in bar deposits are primarily influenced by the grain-size sorting, and subordinately by grain size and composition. 
Our findings provide a link between planform evolution of fluvial bends and grain-size distribution within the related bars, with implications to predict subsurface flow propagation within alluvial sedimentary bodies. 

How to cite: Bellizia, E., Boaga, J., Tognin, D., Finotello, A., Cosma, M., Puppin, A., D'Alpaos, A., Cassiani, G., and Ghinassi, M.: Linking sediment properties with conductivity values: an approach to investigate intra point bar grain-size variability in fluvial deposits, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10150, 2021.

EGU21-9698 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Present distribution and variability of water flow, suspended sediment load, and geochemical runoff in the Volga River delta

Mariya Zavadskaya, Alexandr Zavadskiy, and Mikhail Lychagin

Environmental changes in the Volga River delta attract attention of researchers due to increasing anthropogenic pressure on the river catchment, global climate changes, and natural fluctuation cycles of the Caspian Sea level. These changes significantly affect the hydrological regime and erosion-accumulative processes in the Volga delta.

In 2018-2020, the authors conducted series of field hydrological and geochemical studies within the Volga River delta, which covered all major systems of the deltaic water streams. We have determined water discharge, suspended sediment concentration, content of dissolved and suspended chemical elements (ICP-MS/ICP-AES). The results obtained in the study provide a comprehensive view of the current spatial and temporal distribution of the water flow, suspended sediment yield, and geochemical flows along the main branches, numerous channels and rivers during the both high and low water periods, and also allow us to compare them with long-term trends established by previous studies.

We have found that the present distribution of water flow and suspended sediment load within the Volga delta differs from the second half of the XX century. It determines the ongoing restructuring of the water balance, and transformation of the rate of erosion and accumulative processes within the main systems of the deltaic branches. The study allowed delineating the Volga Delta by zones of erosion, transition, and accumulation of suspended matter in different phases of the water regime in relation to the modern basis of erosion, which is the current level of the Caspian Sea.

The distribution of geochemical runoff within the Volga Delta is determined by water and sediment runoff, as well as concentrations of dissolved and suspended forms of chemical elements. The largest geochemical runoff passes through the Bakhtemir and Buzan systems. During the low-water period, the volumes of geochemical runoff of these branches are similar. During the flood period, despite the increasing share of Buzan water runoff, the prevailing fluxes of matter pass through the Bakhtemir system due to higher concentrations of elements and larger solid discharge.

The ratio of dissolved and suspended elements in flows is determined mainly by the properties of chemical elements. According to the percentage ratio of dissolved and suspended forms, we divided elements into 3 groups: 1) migrating mainly in dissolved forms (Na, Ca, Sr, Mg, Mo, U, K, Li, Ba, As, Sb), 2) migrating mainly in suspended forms (Pb, Y, Zr, Ti, Mn, Fe, Al, REE), 3) elements with changeable behavior depending on geochemical and hydrological conditions (Ni, Cd, Zn, Co, Cu, et al.).

The research was supported by RFBR project No. 18-05-80094 and №17-05-41174-RGS.

How to cite: Zavadskaya, M., Zavadskiy, A., and Lychagin, M.: Present distribution and variability of water flow, suspended sediment load, and geochemical runoff in the Volga River delta, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9698, 2021.

EGU21-13296 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

River-Sea Systems: Spatial and temporal occurrence of Neonicotinoids, Glyphosate and related transformation products in the Chinese Bohai Sea and 36 surrounding Rivers

Célia Patrícia Martins Bento, Tanja Naumann, Andreas Wittmann, Jianhui Tang, Xiaomei Zhen, Lin Liu, and Ralf Ebinghaus

Neonicotinoid insecticides (NNs) and the herbicide glyphosate are systemic pesticides widely used in agriculture and urban environments. They are the most used pesticides worldwide. Their extensive use has led to great social concerns regarding their environmental fate and toxicity to non-target organisms and to human health. Consequently, glyphosate is at risk of being banned in the EU and 3 NNs (imidacloprid, clothianidin and thiamethoxam) have recently been permanently banned for outdoor applications. Nevertheless, their use is still permitted in China. Moreover, NNs have been incorporated in the watch list of substances for the EU monitoring program in surface waters (2015/495/EU) due to possible threats to aquatic organisms. Therefore, these compounds are emerging environmental contaminants of concern.

This study investigates the temporal and spatial occurrence of 7 NNs, as well as other insecticides (fipronil, imidaclothiz, cycloxaprid and sulfoxaflor), the herbicide glyphosate and several of their transformation products in the Chinese Bohai Sea and its surrounding rivers. Water samples were collected in the summer and fall of 2018 from 36 rivers and 47 stations in the Bohai Sea. All samples were immediately stored at -20°C until analysis. All samples were extracted by solid-phase extraction (1L water sample was used for the insecticides, whereas 20 mL water sample was used for  glyphosate and its main metabolite AMPA (aminomethylphosphonic acid)), eluted with methanol and further enriched by evaporation. For glyphosate and AMPA, the water samples were first derivatized with FMOC-Cl (9-Fluorenylmethoxycarbonyl chloride). All samples were analyzed by HPLC-MS/MS.

The results show that, from the 18 compounds analyzed, 15 were detected in river samples and 12 in seawater samples. Acetamiprid was detected in all river- and seawater samples. Much higher concentrations were observed in the rivers (<LOD – 4487 ng.L-1) as compared to the Bohai Sea (<LOD – 120.5 ng.L-1). AMPA was the compound detected at the highest concentration for both river- (4487 ng.L-1 – Xiaoqinglong River) and seawaters (120.5 ng.L-1), followed by glyphosate (Xiaoqing River = 463.6 ng.L-1; seawater = 27.4 ng.L-1) and then by acetamiprid (Duliujian River = 127.4 ng.L-1; seawater = 1.7 ng.L-1). Except for AMPA, all compounds were found at higher concentrations during the summer season.

In conclusion, the ubiquitous presence of acetamiprid and the high concentrations and detection frequencies of AMPA in the sampled waters suggest a high persistence and stability of these compounds in surface waters. Therefore, these compounds may accumulate in aquatic/marine environments and may pose a risk to aquatic/marine organisms. The Bohai and Laizhou Bays presented the highest contamination status, to where most contaminated rivers were flowing, indicating that riverine discharges are important contributors to the pollution status of the marine environment. The higher detection frequencies and concentrations of the transformation products of imidacloprid, fipronil and glyphosate in the marine environment indicate the rapid degradation of their parent compounds during their “journey” from the contaminated rivers to the Bohai Sea. Since evidence shows that these transformation products have similar or even higher persistence and toxicity to non-target organisms, it is important to further monitor these compounds in the marine environment.

How to cite: Bento, C. P. M., Naumann, T., Wittmann, A., Tang, J., Zhen, X., Liu, L., and Ebinghaus, R.: River-Sea Systems: Spatial and temporal occurrence of Neonicotinoids, Glyphosate and related transformation products in the Chinese Bohai Sea and 36 surrounding Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13296, 2021.

EGU21-14880 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Wind surge influence on flows of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Don River delta

Anna Tkachenko, Veronika Piskareva, Timur Koshovsky, Alexander Gennadiev, and Mikhail Lychagin

The Don River Delta is densely populated and subjected to the significant anthropogenic impact caused by agriculture, shipping, recreation and fishing activities. One of the major problems in the delta is wind surges, which cause catastrophic consequences due to the sharp water rise (up to 3,2 meter in 2014). Increasing technogenic pressure coupled with the unstable hydrological regime determines great interest of scientists in its study. Research of aquatic systems of the Don River delta carried out by the authors since 2012. Since that, a great data on heavy metals (HM) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) content in water, suspended matter and bottom sediments has been received. The data characterize different hydrological conditions including spring flood, summer and winter low water periods, and water surges of 2014 and 2019.

The content of HMs and PAHs in water and suspended matter of the Don delta is usually below the world average. There is a significant seasonal and spatial variability in the concentration of pollutants in suspended matter. In general, the majority of heavy metals are characterized by an increase in contents from the top of the delta to the estuary seaside. Deltaic waters were found polluted Cu with the maximum value in the mouth of the main shipping channel. Increased concentrations of HMs and PAHs are observed near or downstream of settlements and industrial facilities. According to seasonal changes the heavy metals in the Don delta can be divided into 2 groups. The first group includes Fe, Mn and Pb, which maximum concentrations are characteristic of the winter low-water period. The second group includes Cu, Ni, Zn and Mo, with the highest content during floods.

The average concentration of PAHs in the summer-autumn low-water period (300 ng/g) is almost 10 times lower than in the winter low-water period (3000 ng/g). The composition of PAHs in suspended matters is dominated by light compounds: diphenyl-phenanthrene-naphthalene association in the summer-autumn low-water period and phenanthrene-naphthalene-anthracene association during the winter low-water period. Small low-flow channels have a low content of polyarenes.

Surge events significantly affect the spatial distribution of HMs and polyarenes in suspended matter and bottom sediments, mainly due to an increase in flow turbulence. During the surge the content of HMs and PAHs in upper part of the sediments was found decreased, since in suspended matter increased.

This work was carried out with the financial support of the RFBR grant 18-05-80094.

How to cite: Tkachenko, A., Piskareva, V., Koshovsky, T., Gennadiev, A., and Lychagin, M.: Wind surge influence on flows of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Don River delta, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14880, 2021.

EGU21-6459 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Trace metals accumulation on the Po river prodelta, North Adriatic Sea

Francesco Riminucci, Lucilla Capotondi, and Mariangela Ravaioli

The Po River delta (northern Italy) is a complex system composed of terrestrial, transitional and coastal-marine ecosystems strongly influenced by different natural and anthropogenic stressors. In this study, we aimed to provide the anthropic impact during the last 200 years through geochemical concentration of heavy metals. In order to reach this objective, trace Metals (TMs: Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr, Cd and Ni), major elements (Al, Fe and Mn) and natural/artificial radionuclides (210Pb/137Cs) were analysed on the sediment core (EL14-C01) collected in 2014 in the Po River prodelta. We assumed the TMs mean concentrations during the pre-industrial time (before 1850) as the natural background in this area. Sediments deposited after 1850 exhibited a TMs gradual rise compared to the concentrations recorded in the pre-industrial era, in particular Pb, Zn and Cu (PZC). PZC vertical profiles show that the contamination has increased dramatically after the Second World War, during the so called ‘‘Italian Economic Miracle’’ period, exceeding up to 2.5, 2 and 1.5 (Pb>Zn>Cu) times the concentrations of the pre-industrial era. Post-war years saw the birth of the mechanical, chemical, ceramics Italian industries, and the switch from coal to oil and the plastic derivatives it entailed (Romano et al. 2013). The PZC concentrations reached the maximum between 1970s and 1980s, in agreement with anthropogenic atmospheric emissions changes. The distributions of ZPC indicate a sharp contamination decrease from the second half of the 1980s. Probably this reduction was related to the introduction of the Italian Law 319/76 and to the implementation of anti-pollution policies on automotive Pb (unleaded fuels). Recently, the levels of anthropogenic ZPC pollution are similar to the pre-WWII values. During the XXth century, the geochemical analysis show some TMs/Al peaks corresponding to the seven major Po floods with discharges above 8000 m3/s occurred in 1917, 1926, 1928, 1951, 1976, 1994, and 2000.



How to cite: Riminucci, F., Capotondi, L., and Ravaioli, M.: Trace metals accumulation on the Po river prodelta, North Adriatic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6459, 2021.

EGU21-14658 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Dispersion scenarios of radioactive antimony in a macro-tidal continent-ocean transition system

Teba Gil-Díaz, Jörg Schäfer, Frédérique Pougnet, and Lionel Dutruch

Antimony (Sb) radionuclides (e.g., 125Sb half-life of 2.76 y), are fission products of nuclear reactions released to the environment during nuclear power plant (NPP) accidental events and current operating fuel reprocessing. In coastal systems, 125Sb shows high mobility and dispersion in the dissolved phase but its environmental biogeochemical behaviour in continent-ocean transition systems is still not fully understood [1]. Based on the widely accepted hypothesis of similar geochemical behaviour between radioactive and stable isotopes of the same element, this work quantified inherent concentrations of dissolved Sb (Sbd, <0.2 µm mesh size) along the salinity and turbidity gradients of the Gironde Estuary (SW of France) covering contrasting hydrological conditions (i.e., intermediate freshwater discharge and drought) by direct analysis of estuarine and seawater samples with QQQ-ICP-MS (KED mode, iCAP TQ Thermo®). Dissolved Sb trends along the salinity gradient showed a non-conservative (additive) behaviour, ranging between 100-140 ng L-1 in the freshwater endmember (i.e., matching known upstream concentrations [2]) to max. 440 ng L-1 in mid-salinities during drought conditions, followed by decreasing values towards the marine endmember due to dilution (mixing) with seawater (i.e., ~200 ng L-1). The specific mechanisms behind Sb desorption from the particle phase are unknown, potentially related to the interplay between biogeochemical processes and intra-estuarine residence times of water and suspended particles in macrotidal, hyperturbid estuaries, independent from the salinity gradient [3]. Daily gross Sbd fluxes into the estuary (i.e., 10.4 kg d-1 and 3.4 kg d-1) and net estuarine coastal output (i.e., 27.0 kg d-1 and 11.4 kg d-1) for intermediate and drought conditions were calculated, respectively, following known methods [4]. Sorption experiments using isotopically labelled spikes of stable Sb exposed to water and particles from the Gironde Estuary simulating the salinity and turbidity gradients showed <2% sorption of added Sb in 24h [5], suggesting that potential liquid releases of 125Sb from a NPP in the central Gironde Estuary may persist in the dissolved fraction. Dispersion scenarios of hypothetical 125Sb discharges are expected to reflect water residence times, resulting in long-term intra-estuarine 125Sb retention during draught (water residence times of 80 days) and highest concentrations of inherent Sb. In contrast, hypothetical 125Sb releases during intermediate conditions (i.e., water residence times of 1-2 months) would result in faster exportation of 125Sb to the coastal ocean, where enhanced dilution might probably limit the exposure levels of coastal organisms to 125Sb but imply a wider dispersion following oceanic currents along the Atlantic coast, possibly reaching the oyster farms north of the estuary mouth. Bio-uptake of Sb radionuclides, related radiotoxicity and potential sorption onto suspended particles (e.g., after longer contact times) or plankton and the resulting reactivity/mobility need further investigation.

 

References:

[1] Periáñez R., Miró C.J. Radiol Prot, 2009, 29(2), 219.

[2] Gil-Díaz T., Schäfer J., et al. Environ Chem, 2018, 15(3), 121.

[3] van der Sloot H.A., Hoede D., et al. Estuar Coast Shelf S, 1985, 21, 633.

[4] Andreae M.O., Byrd J.T., et al. Envir Sci Tech, 1983, 17, 731.

[5] Gil-Díaz T., Schäfer J., et al. Appl Geochem, 2019, 108, 104386.

 

How to cite: Gil-Díaz, T., Schäfer, J., Pougnet, F., and Dutruch, L.: Dispersion scenarios of radioactive antimony in a macro-tidal continent-ocean transition system, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14658, 2021.

EGU21-4745 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Rhenium distribution and behaviour in the salinity gradient of a highly stratified estuary

Elvira Bura-Nakić, Lucija Knežević, Jelena Mandić, Ana-Marija Cindrić, and Dario Omanović

In oxic waters, ReVII is the stable oxidation state which undergo hydrolysis to the relatively unreactive perrhenate ion, ReVIIO4- [1]. The oceanic dissolved Re exhibits quite conservative behaviour with the concentration of about 40 pM [2]. Despite the frequent utilization of Re for the atmosphere and the ocean past redox state reconstructions, the geochemical behaviour of Re in the modern surface environments such as rivers, estuaries as well as in seawater is not well studied. Understudy is partially arising from the fact that Re has low seawater and riverine concentration of 4 pM and 16.5 pM, respectively[1, 3]. In the Amazon and the Hudson estuaries, in crease of Re concentration at low and middle salinity regions is observed [4]. On the other hand, Re exhibits complete conservative behaviour in Indian river estuaries, i.e. Narmada, Tapi and the Mandovi estuaries in the Arabian Sea and the Hooghly estuary in the Bay of Bengal [5]. Deviation from conservative behaviour in Re can be explained as the interplay of variety of factors including the nature and composition of the particles, Eh-pH conditions, biological productivity and fate of the organic matter. [5].

Here we present the Re concentration profiles in the freshwater part of the karstic Krka river (Croatia) and its 23 km long estuarine segment, covering a full salinity range (0.1 to 38.6). Analysis of Re was performed by its preconcentration and separation using an anion exchange resin (Dowex 1X8) followed with the ICP-MS quantification using isotope dilution (ID) method. The Krka River spring is characterised by the low Re concentration (~6 pM). A noticeable anthropogenic influence at the point of the wastewater discharge of the Knin town was observed (27 pM). This input probably caused a progressive downstream increase of Re concentration to 12 pM at the freshwater end-member in the winter period (with a high Krka River discharge) and 17 pM in the summer period (low Krka River discharge). In the estuarine segment, a near-conservative behaviour of Re was found, with the "oceanic" concentration of 38 pM in the seawater end-member.

 

References:

[1] Hasse AA et al., (2019) Coordination chemistry reviews 394: 135-161.

[2] Anbar AD et al., (1992) Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 56:4099-4103.

[3] Miller CA et al., (2011) Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 75:7146-7179.

[4] Colodner D et al., (1993) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 117:205-221.

[5] Rahaman W and Singh SK (2010) Marine Chemistry 118: 1-10.

How to cite: Bura-Nakić, E., Knežević, L., Mandić, J., Cindrić, A.-M., and Omanović, D.: Rhenium distribution and behaviour in the salinity gradient of a highly stratified estuary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4745, 2021.

Inland waters including rivers, lakes, and groundwater are suggested to act as a transport pathway for water and dissolved substances, and play some role in continental biogeochemical cycling (Cole et al., 2007; Battin et al., 2009). Quantifying the physical and chemical connections between land and associated fresh and coastal waters is critical for understanding the dynamics of carbon cycle in aquatic ecosystems. Recently, process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model (Nakayama and Watanabe, 2004) was developed to couple with various biogeochemical cycle models in biosphere, aquatic ecosystems, and carbon weathering, etc. in global major river basins (NICE-BGC) (Nakayama, 2017; Nakayama and Pelletier, 2018). NICE-BGC also included the feedback between soil organic content and overland carbon fluxes, and succeeded to simulate inter-annual variations of carbon cycle in a terrestrial-aquatic continuum greatly affected by the extreme weather patterns (Nakayama, 2020). To evaluate global changes in the carbon cycle due to anthropogenic factors, such as application of fertilizer and manure, in major rivers including 130 tidal estuaries over an 18-year period (1998-2015), the present study expanded NICE-BGC to estuary in land and ocean margins where it is generally considered to be net heterotrophic ecosystems and show significant supersaturation of CO2 (Frankignoulle et al., 1998; Regnier et al., 2013). The new model used Dirichlet boundary condition at the downstream of global major rivers by using some variables (water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nutrient, alkalinity, and pH, etc.) in coastal ocean. The simulated result showed that total nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in overland flow were found to increase with nutrient application. In contrast, total suspended sediment decreased in some regions because the vegetation was able to expand to cover the ground, resulting in less erosion. NICE-BGC simulated the difference in carbon budget in major rivers with and without nutrient application. Generally, CO2 degassing above water decreased and particulate organic carbon (POC) increased in most rivers through variations in carbon budget, reflecting various hydrologic and biogeochemical conditions. The simulated result also showed that the estuarine carbon cycle was sensitive to intense anthropogenic disturbances reflected by nutrient load, seawater temperature, increases in sea level, and ocean acidification. Extension of previous studies only by categorizing MARCATS segment numbers showed that the estimated total CO2 flux from the world’s estuaries was 0.14 Pg C/yr. The simulation generally showed that incorporation of the nutrient cycle into the terrestrial-aquatic-estuarine continuum improved estimates of net land flux and carbon budget in inland waters, thus emphasizing that the effect of estuarine inland water should be explicitly included in the global carbon model to minimize the range of uncertainty.

How to cite: Nakayama, T.: Estimation of carbon cycle changes in river-estuarine continuum by using advanced earth system model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3602, 2021.

EGU21-8721 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Elbe 2020 – investigating a river-sea system from upstream into the North Sea

Holger Brix, Norbert Kamjunke, Ingeborg Bussmann, Eric Achterberg, Peter Dietrich, Philipp Fischer, Götz Flöser, Felix Geißler, Uta Koedel, Matthias Koschorreck, Louise Rewrie, and Claudia Schütze

Understanding river-sea-systems requires a thorough understanding of processes that span different Earth system compartments. To overcome issues related to the interaction of different scientific disciplines and compartments, such as different measurement and calibration standards, quality control approaches and data formats for specific environmental parameters, joint measurement campaigns have been initiated within the Helmholtz Association’s MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems) project. Following multiple senor comparison and intercalibration campaigns in 2019, MOSES’ Hydrological Extremes event chain working group initiated joint field campaigns in summer 2020 covering the Elbe river from the Czech-German border to the tidal Elbe and further on into the estuary and the German Bight.

The fundamental objective was to establish scientifically sound and resilient multi-ship applicable sampling procedures and to create reference data for the main environmental parameters for future investigation of extreme events such as flooding and drought and their overall impact on the catchment region and the adjacent estuarine area of a large European fresh water / marine system. The campaign involved four research vessels, four research centers and spanned nearly two months. Measurements included standard hydrological and oceanographic parameters, as well as quantities relevant to the nutrient and carbonate system. Furthermore, selected water quality indicators and atmospheric measurements were performed. In the fresh water section of the Elbe river measurements were taken while drifting with the water mass. In the tidal section of the river sampling was done against the ebb current while in the North Sea a grid covering a large part of the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) was sampled.

We detected a longitudinal increase of phytoplankton biomass along the 585 km freshwater part of the river towards the tidal system. In contrast, concentrations of dissolved nitrate and phosphate decreased to low values due the uptake by planktonic algae. The concentration of dissolved CO2 decreased caused by increasing photosynthesis while the concentration of methane increased along the river stretch, particularly in the most downstream part when sedimentation of phytoplankton increased the organic load of sediments. The tidal part of the transect showed a strong influence of Hamburg harbor on almost all quantities, while downstream towards the estuary, the effects of the tidal cycle dominated variabilities. In the marine area, elevated chlorophyll concentrations were mainly found near the west coast of Schleswig-Holstein, probably mostly influenced by the Eider river outflow or the adjacent tidal flats. While most of the measured parameters showed an expected behavior relative to their individual compartments, the transfer of quantities between the compartments revealed rather complex and sometimes difficult to understand behaviors and patterns, especially when considering a functional quantitative analysis. The first results of this trans-compartment campaign showed that a quantitative understanding of the fate and dynamics of water constituents across compartments from the spring to the sea needs enhanced scientific collaboration and awareness to finally come to a better integrated understanding of physical, biogeochemical and biological processes from the local to the global scale.

How to cite: Brix, H., Kamjunke, N., Bussmann, I., Achterberg, E., Dietrich, P., Fischer, P., Flöser, G., Geißler, F., Koedel, U., Koschorreck, M., Rewrie, L., and Schütze, C.: Elbe 2020 – investigating a river-sea system from upstream into the North Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8721, 2021.

EGU21-7325 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Long-term changes in inorganic carbon in the Elbe estuary

Louise Rewrie, Yoana Voynova, Holger Brix, Gregor Ollesch, and Burkard Baschek

Overall, estuaries are net CO2 sources to the atmosphere, releasing an estimated 0.25 Pg C yr-1, which could counterbalance the shelf uptake of approximately 0.25 Pg C yr-1. River discharge can influence both, the CO2 flux from estuary to the atmosphere, as well as the magnitude of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) exported to coastal waters. In Europe, climate change is expected to cause an increased precipitation in winter and longer periods of drought in summer. The goal of this study is to elucidate the influence of climate-change-induced hydrological changes on an estuarine carbonate system.

The Elbe River is one largest river basins in central Europe, where over 24 million people live in the catchment area. Since 2014, annual Elbe river discharge has been relatively low at 492.95 m3 s-1, compared to the mean river discharge from 2008 to 2018 at 652.95 m3 s-1. 2018 was especially dry, with a discharge of 441 m3 s-1, the lowest annual mean river discharge since 1992. The Elbe estuary has been extensively sampled by the Flussgebietsgemeinschaft (FGG) Elbe (Elbe River Basin Community), qualifying the region as a suitable site to study the natural and anthropogenic impacts on estuarine systems.

Preliminary results of the 1985-2018 FGG dataset indicate a major shift in the carbonate system dynamics in the Elbe estuary. From assessing the behaviour of DIC and other ecosystem parameters along the estuary over time, the region can be separated into three ecosystem states. During the time of high pollution, from 1985 to 1990, the estuary exhibited high levels of DIC. Between 1991 and 1996 is the transitional period. After 1997, the ecosystem parameters appear to be exhibiting similar patterns throughout each year with similar levels and therefore this period can be classified as the current ecosystem state. Since 1997, DIC exhibits a drawdown in spring and summer months in the upper region, coinciding with the increase in dissolved oxygen saturation and pH, which can indicate that this region is net autotrophic. Further downstream, DIC then increases along the estuary, and often peaks in the maximum turbidity zone.

For this study, we apply multiple linear regression to determine the relative importance of ecosystem variables that contribute to annual and monthly DIC variability in the recent ecosystem state. Key ecosystem variables include particulate and dissolved organic carbon, pH, dissolved oxygen and river discharge.

How to cite: Rewrie, L., Voynova, Y., Brix, H., Ollesch, G., and Baschek, B.: Long-term changes in inorganic carbon in the Elbe estuary, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7325, 2021.

EGU21-8270 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Characteristics of dissolved and atmospheric methane concentrations along a freshwater-seawater transect from the River Elbe into the North Sea

Ingeborg Bussmann, Holger Brix, Norbert Kamjunke, Uta Ködel, Matthias Koschorreck, and Claudia Schütze

Surface waters are known to be significant sources of greenhouse gases (CH4 and CO2), but our understanding of large scale patterns is still incomplete. The greenhouse gases in rivers originate both from in-stream processes and interactions with the catchment. For coastal seas, rivers are suspected to be one of the main source of greenhouse gases, while the role of the interjacent tidal flats is still ambiguous. Especially the reaction of the entire system on terrestrial hydrological extremes such as low flow situations are still under consideration. The functional understanding of such events and their impacts on the water chemistry along its transition pathway in the terrestrial and limnic compartment as well as in the coastal marine environment is crucially needed for the evaluation of its relevance in the Earth system. As part of a MOSES campaign (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems) spanning disciplines as well as earth system compartments we investigated the aquatic as well as the atmospheric compartemt in and above the Elbe River from inland waters through the tidal section of the river and the estuary to the North Sea with the goal to explore spatial heterogeneity of CO2 and CH4 concentrations in the water and in ambient air above the water during a low water period in summer 2020.

 

Overall, dissolved CH4 concentrations ranged over three orders of magnitude. Along the freshwater part of the transect, dissolved CH4 increased and weirs and harbors appeared to be hot spots of elevated CH4 concentrations both for the dissolved and atmospheric phase. We observed a longitudinal gradient of CO2 in the river which was closely linked to primary production. In the estuary and the marine part, dissolved CH4 concentrations of the transect were determined by the variability of temperature and salinity. Correlations with other water parameters revealed the complex regulation of dissolved CH4 concentrations along the freshwater-seawater continuum. For atmospheric CH4 above the North Sea, wind direction and wind speed proved to be crucial. Besides the typical diurnal fluctuations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, an observed link between dissolved and atmospheric concentrations has to  be further clarified.

How to cite: Bussmann, I., Brix, H., Kamjunke, N., Ködel, U., Koschorreck, M., and Schütze, C.: Characteristics of dissolved and atmospheric methane concentrations along a freshwater-seawater transect from the River Elbe into the North Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8270, 2021.

EGU21-7101 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Small-Scale Gradients in Big River: Implications for a State-of-the-Art Research Platform in the Elbe

Sina Bold, Justus E.E. van Beusekom, Yoana G. Voynova, Marius Cysewski, Bryce Van Dam, Michael Stresser, Ruben Carrasco Alvarez, Jochen Horstmann, Kirstin Dähnke, Tina Sanders, Jana Friedrich, Daniel Pröfrock, and Helmuth Thomas

Estuaries are crucial in transforming matter fluxes from land to sea. To better understand and quantify these processes and respective fluxes, it is important to determine the input into an estuary accurately. To allow for such studies in the Elbe estuary in Germany, a state-of-the-art research platform is currently being set-up just upstream of the weir in Geesthacht at the entrance of the estuary. Here, we report on small-scale spatial dynamics of organic matter and associated processes from several cross and longitudinal profiles around the planned location and the implications for the set-up of the aforementioned research platform.

Based on preliminary data obtained in August 2020 during a period of relatively low discharge, we present the following results: (1) In three cross profiles along a 10 km transect of the Elbe upstream of the weir, we observed considerable small-scale gradients regarding currents and various biogeochemical parameters. In comparison to the fairway, water from the riverbanks was depleted in suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, and nitrate, and enhanced in ammonium, phosphate and silicate, as well as total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon paralleled by decreasing pH. This suggests that in the summer, organic matter is deposited and remineralised at the riverbanks, resulting in the release of ammonium, phosphate and silicate, and in the removal of nitrate, presumably by denitrification. (2) Along the 10 km transect towards the weir, we observed that concentrations of suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, nitrate and pH were decreasing. In contrast, we found that ammonium, phosphate and silicate, total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon increased towards the weir. This suggests an increased sedimentation and subsequent remineralisation due to the reduced flow velocities in front of the weir. (3) An analysis of a 10-year time series from the weir supports this by showing higher ammonium concentrations when discharges were relatively low. The implications of these findings for the set-up of the research platform in this area, as well as for optimising estimates of budgets are discussed. The research platform will contribute to understand further such variations in biogeochemical parameters at the entrance of the Elbe estuary over time.

The research platform is set-up in cooperation with the Helmholtz initiative MOSES (“Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems“) and will be incorporated in the Elbe-North Sea Supersite of DANUBIUS-RI (“International Centre for Advanced Studies on River-Sea Systems“). Funding is provided by European Regional Development Funds, the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, the Helmholtz Association and the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. The research platform, planned to be operational in autumn 2021, will also be open for users e.g. to develop and test new methods and technologies. Data will be made available through the “Helmholtz Coastal Data Centre” (HCDC).

How to cite: Bold, S., van Beusekom, J. E. E., Voynova, Y. G., Cysewski, M., Van Dam, B., Stresser, M., Carrasco Alvarez, R., Horstmann, J., Dähnke, K., Sanders, T., Friedrich, J., Pröfrock, D., and Thomas, H.: Small-Scale Gradients in Big River: Implications for a State-of-the-Art Research Platform in the Elbe, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7101, 2021.

EGU21-8699 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Pelagic oxygen consumption rates in the Elbe estuary: Proxies and spatial patterns.

Justus E.E. van Beusekom, Dorothee Fehling, Sina Bold, and Tina Sanders
The Elbe estuary is strongly impacted by human activities including dredging, land reclamation and eutrophication. Since about 30 years, water quality improved leading to major phytoplankton blooms in the Elbe river. When these blooms enter the upper estuary including the Hamburg port area, they collapse leading  to low oxygen conditions. During a cruise in September 2020 we measured oxygen consumption rates in water samples of the Elbe Estuary between the coastal North Sea (Wadden Sea) and  the weir in Geesthacht including a large freshwater part of the Elbe estuary. In addition, suspended matter samples were taken and analysed for chlorophyll, particulate C (PC) and particulate N (PN). Oxygen consumption rates reached maximum values at both the marine side (~0.3 µmol/(l*h)) and the freshwater  side of the estuary (~0.65 µmol/(l*h)) and a distinct minimum near the Estuarine Turbidity Maximum near the onset of the salinity gradient. Based on specific weights of phytoplankton and PC content, we estimated the contribution of newly formed organic matter. This estimate correlated significantly with the observed oxygen consumption rates. We suggest that most of the riverine organic matter is degraded within the freshwater part of the Elbe estuary before reaching the salinity gradient. This is in line with significant amounts of nitrate being released within the freshwater part of the estuary.

How to cite: van Beusekom, J. E. E., Fehling, D., Bold, S., and Sanders, T.: Pelagic oxygen consumption rates in the Elbe estuary: Proxies and spatial patterns., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8699, 2021.

EGU21-9361 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Greenhouse gas dynamics in an anthropogenically modified tropical river continuum

Siddhartha Sarkar, Ajayeta Rathi, and Sanjeev Kumar

Recent decades have witnessed large scale modifications in the natural flow regime of river systems. What follows are shifts in various instream processes that ultimately govern the air-water fluxes of major greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CH4, CO2, and N2O. However, due to paucity of data, the process dynamics and controls on fluxes of GHGs in tropical rivers are understudied, contributing to uncertainty in their global budget. In this study, an attempt was made to estimate the fluxes of GHGs and thereby decipher the controls on evasive processes in an anthropogenically affected Sabarmati River (catchment ~ 27,674 km2 and channel length ~371 km) located in semi-arid western India. After originating from a relatively pristine region, Sabarmati passes through a major twin city (Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar), where construction of a riverfront resulted in increased residence time of water within the city limits.

To compare and understand changes in in-stream biogeochemical processes as a result of human interventions, sampling was carried out at 50 sites along the Sabarmati river continuum and a parallel running, but not so anthropogenically modified, Mahi River along with their tributaries. Results indicated relatively lower fluxes of GHGs in pristine upstream of Sabarmati and Mahi River continuum with CH4, CO2 and N2O fluxes at 0.99 ± 0.35 mg C m-2 d-1, 4250.99 ± 477.74 mg C m-2 d-1 and 0.055 ± 0.026 mg N m-2 d-1 respectively. The effect of higher residence time of water could be seen in the riverfront with increased CH4 and N2O fluxes at 3.27 ± 1.02 mg C m-2 d-1 and 0.129 ± 0.024 mg N m-2 d-1, respectively. However, the CO2 flux did not show much increase. The fluxes increased significantly post city limits until its mouth in the Arabian Sea with extremely large flux for methane (CH4: 102.84 ± 41.32 mg C m-2 d-1, CO2: 9563.58 ± 1252.43 mg C m-2 d-1, and N2O: 0.16 ± 0.11 mg N m-2 d-1, respectively). Overall, it appeared that even within the anthropogenically stressed river, the nature of flow regime, exerts significant control on cycling of elements leading to differential fluxes. Also, the level of coupling between nitrogen and carbon appeared to change within the course of the river.

How to cite: Sarkar, S., Rathi, A., and Kumar, S.: Greenhouse gas dynamics in an anthropogenically modified tropical river continuum, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9361, 2021.

EGU21-12897 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Impacts of riverine terrestrial organic matter on the lower trophic levels of an Arctic shelf ecosystem

Michael Bedington, Ricardo Torres, Luca Polimene, Phillip Wallhead, Bennett Juhls, Juri Palmtag, Jens Strauss, and Paul J. Mann

The Arctic ocean receives 11% of the entire global river discharge via several great Arctic rivers that drain vast catchments underlain with carbon-rich permafrost. Arctic marginal shelf seas are therefore heavily influenced by terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) supply, influencing coastal biogeochemical processes and food-webs, as well as physio-chemical properties (e.g. stratification or nutrient concentrations).

Whilst carbon and associated macronutrients supplied by tDOM may enhance the nutrient and carbon substrates for lower trophic levels (phytoplankton/zooplankton), promoting increased local and regional productivity, it can also have opposing effects through a series of indirect processes (e.g. increased light absorption limiting light penetration through the water column). Understanding the relative importance and timing of these processes, and how they vary spatially, is necessary to identify how land-ocean interfaces currently operate.

Future climate scenarios indicate increased quantities of riverine tDOM delivered to the near-shore, with increased freshwater runoff and greater terrestrial permafrost thaw and erosion. This is likely to be exacerbated by the disappearance of seasonal sea ice cover and increased coastal erosion rates. We can therefore expect changes in planktonic phenology and productivity, with concomitant changes in bacterial and higher trophic level success. Understanding how these factors interact and may change under future climate scenarios is therefore critical to predict the future impact on shelf sea Arctic ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

In the Changing Arctic Carbon cycle in the cOastal Ocean Near-shore (CACOON) project (UK-Germany collaboration) we are using coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models in the extensive shallow shelf of the Laptev sea to explore the relationship between these factors. The ecosystem model ERSEM has been adapted to explicitly include a tDOM component. This coupled model system allows us to investigate both the role of present day tDOM in an Arctic coastal ecosystem and to project the potential impacts of increased tDOM input in future.

How to cite: Bedington, M., Torres, R., Polimene, L., Wallhead, P., Juhls, B., Palmtag, J., Strauss, J., and Mann, P. J.: Impacts of riverine terrestrial organic matter on the lower trophic levels of an Arctic shelf ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12897, 2021.

EGU21-8274 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Modelling the climate change impact on the largest White Sea estuarine areas

Evgeniya Panchenko, Andrei Alabyan, Inna Krylenko, and Serafima Lebedeva

Possible sea level rise and changes in hydrological regime of rivers are the major threats to estuarine systems. The sensibility of hydrodynamic regime of the Northern Dvina delta and the Onega estuary under various scenarios of climate change has been investigated. Hydrodynamic models HEC-RAS (USA, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center) and STREAM_2D (Russia, authors V.Belikov et.al.) were used for analysis of estuarine flow regime (variations of water levels, discharges and flow velocities throughout tidal cycles). Input runoff changes were simulated for different climate scenarios using ECOMAG model (Russia, author Yu.Motovilov) based on data of global climate models (GSM) of CMIP5 project for the White Sea region.

ECOMAG modelling has demonstrated that the maximum river discharges averaged for 30-year period 2036 – 2065 can reduce for about 20 – 27% for the Onega and 15 – 20% for the Northern Dvina river compared against the historical period 1971 – 2000.Averaged minimum river discharges can reduce for about 33 – 45% for the Onega and 30 – 40% for the Northern Dvina.

The White Sea level rise by 0.27 m in average (with inter-model variation from 0.20 to 0.38 m) can took place by the middle of the XXI century according to input data of GSM models. The 12 scenarios of estuarine hydrodynamic changes were simulated for the both rivers based on combining river runoff changes and sea level elevation.

In general, the expected flow changes are negative for the local industry and population. According to modelling results for ‘high runoff/spring tide’ scenarios the flooding area in the Northern Dvina delta will increase by 13-20% depending on the intensity of sea level rise. In the low water seasons the distance from the river mouth to the upper boundary of the reach, where reverse currents can be observed, will move upstream by 8 - 36 km depending of sea/river conditions due to decrease in minimum river runoff. It may adversely effect on shipping conditions at the city of Arkhangelsk and on brackish water intrusion up-to industrial and communal water intakes.

The reverse currents also will intensify in the Onega estuary (tidal flow velocities increase for 11 – 19%) that leads to the change of the sediment regime and can significantly deteriorate the navigation conditions at the seaport of the Onega town. The problem of the intensification of salt intrusion can arise there as well.

The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 18- 05-60021 in development of the scenarios; No. 19-35-90032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Onega; Project No. 19-35-60032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Northern Dvina).

How to cite: Panchenko, E., Alabyan, A., Krylenko, I., and Lebedeva, S.: Modelling the climate change impact on the largest White Sea estuarine areas, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8274, 2021.

Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge and its adjacent water bodies are important natural features along western Delaware Bay, USA. Historically salt and brackish marsh habitats, portions of the Refuge were diked and managed as freshwater impoundments starting in the early 1980s. Over the past decade, some of these impoundments have reverted to saline conditions, largely due to several storm events (including Hurricane Sandy in 2012) that have caused flooding, erosion, and opened several breaches between the Refuge and Delaware Bay. Because of these significant morphologic changes, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) completed a series of surveys, numerical modeling using Delft3D and coastal engineering analyses to aid in developing restoration alternatives for managing the Refuge and its marshlands. This work will review the results of the strategic planning used to recommend a preferred restoration alternative for managing the Refuge under the new environmental regime aimed at resilience. As a result of this effort, a project for restoring and managing the Refuge was recommended and constructed in 2018. Total cost of the project was $40 million US and was the largest restoration/recovery project authorized to address the impacts of Hurricane Sandy.

The project included two major components: 1) shoreline reconstruction and 2) marsh restoration.  The shoreline reconstruction portion of the project included placing approximately 1.2 million cubic meters of sand from an offshore borrow area along the shoreline to reconstruction a 12 m wide dune, 45 m beach berm and 30 m back-bay marsh platform (essentially rebuilding the entire barrier island). In addition, the project included a major marsh restoration effort including dredging 48 km of conveyance channels and “thin layer” disposal of 460,000 cubic meters of sediment to create 2,000 hectares of salt marsh.

Herein will present findings from an analysis using monitoring data and observations to evaluate converting freshwater wetlands to saltwater marshes and the resulting increase in carbon sequestration. As tidal marshes are restored, harmful emissions decline as the project site transforms from a freshwater to a saltwater environment. Therefore, carbon is stored in the soils more readily under tidal marsh conditions. The findings will show the increase in carbon sequestration as a result of the vegetation community response and discuss future projections.  Methodologies used for identifying vegetation community response included:

  • Salt Marsh Integrity (SMI) and Saltmarsh Habitat & Avian Research Program (SHARP)
  • Mid-Atlantic Tidal Rapid Assessment Method (MidTRAM)
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

This work will show the importance of incorporating coastal restoration projects and carbon sequestration into policies and management in the coastal zone.

How to cite: Tabar, A., Guiteras, S., and Tabar, J.: Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge Marsh Restoration & Shoreline Resilience Project – A Carbon Sequestration Case Study in the Coastal Zone , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7944, 2021.

EGU21-12609 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2 | Highlight

Using Rapid Repeat SAR Interferometry to improve Hydrodynamic Models of flood propagation in Coastal Wetlands 

Sergio Fagherazzi, Xiaohe Zhang, Cathleen Jones, Talib Oliver-Cabrera, and Marc Simard

The propagation of tides and riverine floodwater in coastal wetlands is controlled by subtle topographic differences and a thick vegetation canopy. A precise quantification of fluxes of water, sediments and nutrients is crucial to determine the resilience and vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise. High-resolution numerical models have been used in recent years to simulate fluxes across wetlands. However, these models are based on sparse field data that can lead to unreliable results. Here, we utilize high spatial-resolution, rapid repeat interferometric data from the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) to provide a synoptic measurement of sub-canopy water-level change resulting from tide propagation into wetlands.  These data are used to constrain crucial model parameters and improve the performance and realism of simulations of the Wax Lake wetlands in coastal Louisiana (USA). A sensitivity analysis shows that the boundary condition of river discharge should be calibrated first, followed by iterative correction of terrain elevation. The calibration of bed friction becomes important only with the boundary and topography calibrated. With the model parameters calibrated, the overall Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for water-level change increases from 0.15 to 0.53 with the RMSE reduced by 26%. More importantly, constraining model simulations with UAVSAR observations drives iterative modifications of the original Digital Terrain Model. In areas with dense wetland grasses, the LiDAR signal is unable to reach the soil surface, but the L-band UAVSAR instrument detects changes in water levels that can be used to infer the true ground elevation. The high spatial resolution and repeat-acquisition frequency (minutes to hours) observations provided by UAVSAR represent a groundbreaking opportunity for a deeper understanding of the complex hydrodynamics of coastal wetlands.

How to cite: Fagherazzi, S., Zhang, X., Jones, C., Oliver-Cabrera, T., and Simard, M.: Using Rapid Repeat SAR Interferometry to improve Hydrodynamic Models of flood propagation in Coastal Wetlands , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12609, 2021.

EGU21-14219 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Physical-biological interactions limit the resilience of coastal wetlands to sea level rise

Jose Rodriguez, Angelo Breda, Patricia Saco, Steven Sandi, Neil Saintilan, and Gerardo Riccardi

Predictions of the effects of sea-level rise over the next century on coastal wetlands vary widely due to uncertainties on environmental variables, but also due to simplifications on the simulation methodologies used. Here, we investigate how accretion and migration processes affect wetland response to sea level rise (SLR) using a computational framework that includes all relevant hydrodynamic, sediment transport and vegetation dynamics mechanisms that affect wetland evolution, and it is efficient enough computationally to allow the simulation of long time periods. We apply this framework to different settings typically found in coastal wetlands around the world, comprising different vegetation types, different sediment loads, obstructions to flow and drainage structures, both natural and man-made. We find that the vast majority of wetland settings analysed are unable to cope with high SLR rates and disappear before the end of the century. Our findings are consistent with paleo-records that indicate limits on the accretion capacity of coastal wetlands during periods of high SLR rates.

How to cite: Rodriguez, J., Breda, A., Saco, P., Sandi, S., Saintilan, N., and Riccardi, G.: Physical-biological interactions limit the resilience of coastal wetlands to sea level rise, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14219, 2021.

EGU21-13624 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Analyses on salt-marsh vegetation composition changes in the Venice lagoon in the last twenty years

Zhicheng Yang, Sonia Silvestri, Marco Marani, and Andrea D'Alpaos

Coastal salt-marshes are important eco-geomorphic features of coastal landscapes providing valuable ecosystem services, but unfortunately, they are among the most vulnerable ecosystems around the world. Their survival is mainly threatened by sea-level rise, wave erosion and human pressure. Halophytic vegetation distribution and dynamics control salt-marsh erosional and depositional patterns, critically determining marsh survival through complex bio-morphodynamic feedbacks. Although a number of studies have proposed species-classification methods and analyzed halophytic vegetation species distribution, our knowledge of the temporal evolution of species composition remains limited. To fill these gaps and better describe vegetation composition changes in time, we developed a novel classification method which is based on the Random Forest soft classification algorithm, and applied the method to two multi-spectral images of the San Felice marsh in the Venice lagoon (Italy) acquired in 2001 and 2019. The Random Forest soft classification achieves high accuracy (0.60 < R2 < 0.96) in the estimation of the fractional abundance of each species in both images. We also determined the local dominant species, i.e. the species with the highest fractional abundance in each pixel. Our observations on the dominant species in 2001 and 2019 show that: 1) the area dominated by Juncus and Spartina decreased dramatically in such period; 2) the area dominated by Limonium almost maintained constant; 3) a noticeable decrease in the bare-soil area occurred due to the encroachment of Salicornia between 2001 and 2019. We also noticed that the probability distribution of the dominant patch area of each species is consistent with a power-law distribution, with different slopes for different vegetation species at different times. We suggest that vegetation composition changes are related to sea-level rise and to the species-specific inundation tolerance.

How to cite: Yang, Z., Silvestri, S., Marani, M., and D'Alpaos, A.: Analyses on salt-marsh vegetation composition changes in the Venice lagoon in the last twenty years, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13624, 2021.

EGU21-13174 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Modelling salt-marsh vegetation dynamics through species dispersal and competition

Alvise Finotello, Enrico Bertuzzo, Andrea D'Alpaos, and Marco Marani

Salt marshes are widespread morphological features in coastal and estuarine tidal landscapes, and are ecologically and economically important as they significantly contribute to coastal primary production, support high biodiversity, and provide a broad range of valuable ecosystem services.

The ability of salt marshes to counteract changes in external forcings depends on the complex dynamic interactions between physical and biological processes acting at different spatial and temporal scales. In particular, the evolution of tidal marshes in the vertical direction results from the balance and feedbacks between organic and inorganic deposition, erosion, and changes in relative sea level. For example, colonization of salt marsh platforms by halophytic vegetation enhances both organic and inorganic deposition due to increased flow resistance, reduced bottom shear stresses, capture of sediment particles by plant stems, and direct biomass accumulation. Moreover, halophytes control soil aeration, which feeds back into vegetation zonation and the related biogeomorphic interactions typically observed in tidal marshes.

In spite of their importance, however, modeling vegetation dynamics in intertidal marshes remains a major challenge both at the theoretical and practical/numerical level. Improving our current understandings of the mechanisms that drive the zonation of halophytic species is of critical importance to enhance projections of salt-marsh response to changes in climate and relative sea level.

Here we present a new bi-dimensional, spatially explicit ecological model aimed to simulate the spatial dynamics of halophytic vegetation in tidal saline wetlands. Vegetation dynamics are treated differently compared to previous models, which employed relatively simple deterministic or probabilistic mechanisms, dictated only by the ability of different species to adapt to different topographic elevations. In our model, in contrast, spatial vegetation dynamics depend not only on the local habitat quality, but also on spatially explicit mechanism of dispersal and competition among multiple, potentially interacting species. The temporal evolution of vegetation biomass at each site depends on death and colonization processes, both local and resulting from dispersal. These processes are modulated for each species by the habitat quality of the considered site. The latter is synthesized only through the local elevation relative to the mean sea level, and is mathematically modeled using a logistic function that represents the theoretical niche of each considered species.

Results indicate that such a relatively simple model, where species have elevation-dependent fitness and otherwise neutral traits, can predict realistic diversity and species-richness patterns. More importantly, the model is also able to effectively reproduce the outcome of classical ecological experiments, in which a species is transplanted to an area outside its optimal (realized) niche. A direct comparison clearly shows how previous models not accounting for dispersal and interspecific competitions are unable to reproduce such dynamics.

How to cite: Finotello, A., Bertuzzo, E., D'Alpaos, A., and Marani, M.: Modelling salt-marsh vegetation dynamics through species dispersal and competition, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13174, 2021.

EGU21-7740 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Embedding compaction processes in long-term evolution modeling of tidal marshes

Riccardo Xotta, Claudia Zoccarato, Philip S. J. Minderhoud, and Pietro Teatini

Tidal marshes are vulnerable and dynamic ecosystems with essential roles from protection against marine storms to biodiversity preservation. However, the survival of these environments is threatened by external stressors such as increasing mean sea level, reduction in sediment supply, and erosion. Tidal marshes are formed by deposition over the last centuries to millennia of sediments transported by surface water and biodegradation of organic matter derived from halophytic vegetation. Therefore, the sediment at the surface is characterized by high porosity and their large consolidation potential plays an important role in the future elevation dynamics, which is often not fully recognized.

Here we propose a novel three-dimensional numerical model to simulate the long-term dynamics of tidal marshes. A 3D groundwater flow equation in saturated conditions is implemented to compute the over-pressure dissipation with the aid of the finite element (FE) method, whereas the sediment consolidation is computed according to Terzaghi's theory.

A Lagrangian approach is implemented in the FE numerical model to properly consider the large soil deformation arising from the deposition of highly compressible material. The hydro-geomechanical properties, that depend on the intergranular effective stress, are highly non-linear.

The model takes advantage of a dynamic mesh that simulates the evolution of the landform elevation by means of an accretion/compaction mechanism: the elements deform in time as the soil consolidates and increase in number as the new sediments deposit over the marsh surface. The deposition is treated as input to the consolidation model and can vary in space and time.

The model is applied to simulate the long-term evolution of realistic tidal marshes in terms of accretion and consolidation due to the coupled dynamics of surficial and subsurface processes.

How to cite: Xotta, R., Zoccarato, C., Minderhoud, P. S. J., and Teatini, P.: Embedding compaction processes in long-term evolution modeling of tidal marshes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7740, 2021.

EGU21-9356 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Field and numerical study of solute transport under evaporation in a subtropical tidal wetland

Yue Liu, Chenming Zhang, Xiaocheng Liu, Ling Li, Alexander Scheuermann, and David Lockington

Tidal wetlands are critical intertidal ecosystem which accommodates a large range of flora and fauna species. The intertidal subsurface environment is subjected to continuous groundwater-seawater mixing which results in dynamic solute transport in the aquifer and to the ocean. Salt distribution and transport play a vital role in the wetland ecology and near-shore biogeochemical activities. While many field and simulation studies have been presented to characterize the salt distribution in the intertidal beach aquifer under the influence of tidal inundation, salt distribution in the tidal wetland subsurface system yet requires more investigation. Moreover, the impact of evaporation on porewater salt distribution could be essential in subtropical areas with numerous coastal wetlands as evaporation extracts porewater from the soil surface and leaves salt in the surface and wetland root zone. However, this parameter was commonly ignored by previous studies.

In this study, field monitoring was carried out to map the groundwater level and spatial salt distribution in a subtropical wetland located in Southeastern Queensland, Australia. Two dimensional, variable-density, saturated-unsaturated groundwater flow and solute transport model was used to examine the pore water flow and salt distribution patterns in a cross-shore section of the field site under the influences of the spring-neap tide and evaporation. Field and simulation results consistently showed that salinity is greatly impacted by evaporation and showed different distributions from the saline seawater intrusion patterns displayed by most of the former studies. 

How to cite: Liu, Y., Zhang, C., Liu, X., Li, L., Scheuermann, A., and Lockington, D.: Field and numerical study of solute transport under evaporation in a subtropical tidal wetland, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9356, 2021.

EGU21-12694 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Improving groundwater dynamics in restored tidal marshes: an explorative field and modelling study

Niels Van Putte, Patrick Meire, Piet Seuntjens, Goedele Verreydt, Ingeborg Joris, Timothy De Kleyn, Joris Cools, Bino Maiheu, Lorenz Hambsch, and Stijn Temmerman

Along estuaries and coasts, tidal marsh restoration projects are increasingly being executed on formerly embanked agricultural land to regain the ecosystem services provided by tidal wetlands. There are, however, more and more indications that restored tidal marshes do not deliver these ecosystem services to the same extent as natural tidal marshes. In particular, we found that marsh restoration on a compacted agricultural soil (which has a very low porosity and hydraulic conductivity) leads to reduced groundwater fluxes and soil aeration, which may imply decreased soil-water interactions, reduced biogeochemical cycling and impaired vegetation development.

We studied the subsurface hydrology in the restored marsh Lippenbroek (Scheldt estuary, Belgium). To investigate spatial and temporal variation of groundwater fluxes in the restored tidal marsh, we developed a real-time groundwater flux sensor (iFLUX sensor) that enables us to measure both the groundwater flow velocity and flow direction in real-time. With these instruments installed at multiple locations and depths in the marsh soil, we were able to capture the effects of the tidal regime and soil stratigraphy on groundwater flow in high detail.

Furthermore, we set up a 2D vertical model in HYDRUS with a domain representing a creek and marsh cross-section. The model enables variably saturated flow calculations for groundwater flow and solute transport in dual porosity soils. Input parameters for the model were obtained by soil sampling and laboratory measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil water retention curves. Simulated results are in good agreement with in situ measured groundwater levels in monitoring wells.

With a scenario analysis, we showed that in a scenario in which the compact subsoil is absent, 6 times more water passes through the marsh soil during a spring tide – neap tide cycle  compared to the reference scenario in which the compact soil starts at a depth of 60 cm. In the compact layer, which is always saturated, flow rates are so low that this layer is expected not to contribute to nutrient cycling.

We then simulated the effect of (i) creek excavation (by varying the number of creeks in the domain) and (ii) soil amendments (by varying the depth to the compact layer) on groundwater flow in newly restored tidal marshes.  We found that increasing the creek density from 1 creek to 2 creeks per 50 m marsh, or changing the depth to the compact layer from 20 cm to 40 cm, both more than doubles the volume of water processed by the marsh soil. As such , our study demonstrates that groundwater modelling is a useful tool in support of designing marsh restoration measures aiming to optimize groundwater fluxes and related ecosystem services.   

How to cite: Van Putte, N., Meire, P., Seuntjens, P., Verreydt, G., Joris, I., De Kleyn, T., Cools, J., Maiheu, B., Hambsch, L., and Temmerman, S.: Improving groundwater dynamics in restored tidal marshes: an explorative field and modelling study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12694, 2021.

EGU21-4161 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Water and nitrogen balance assessment for Krško polje aquifer case study in Slovenia

Miha Curk, Matjaž Glavan, Marina Pintar, and Vesna Zupanc

Groundwater is the main source of drinking water in Slovenia, but nitrate pollution originating from agricultural activities as well as urban sources such as faulty sewage systems is threatening its quality in several areas of the country. One of such is the Krško-brežiško polje alluvial plain in the southeast. The main aim of this study was to assess the water and nitrogen balance for three common land-use types, as well as the whole area. Three field trial sites were set up to monitor water and nitrogen balance. Gaps in data were further evaluated by SWAT model simulations. Results will contribute to the existing knowledge of nitrate pollution pathways in the area, and strengthen understanding of land use and soil type’s influence on the process.

This work was funded by the Slovenian Research Agency project L4-8221 and IAEA TCP-SLO5004.

How to cite: Curk, M., Glavan, M., Pintar, M., and Zupanc, V.: Water and nitrogen balance assessment for Krško polje aquifer case study in Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4161, 2021.

EGU21-1803 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2 | Highlight

Estimating cumulative catchment streamflow depletion from abstractions

Channa Rajanayaka, Doug Booker, and Jing Yang

Abstraction from surface and groundwater bodies alters river flow regimes. The economic and social benefits of abstraction need to be balanced against their consequences for hydrology dependent ecological functions, ecosystem services, cultural values and recreation. However, impacts of an abstraction on flow regimes are often assessed in isolation and so cumulative impacts of many spatially distributed abstractions on the catchment are not understood. While spatially distributed, high-resolution model(s) (e.g. MODFLOW) can be developed to understand the cumulative impacts of abstractions, this is cost prohibitive and the demand for data is high (e.g., system properties, hydroclimatic) to develop such a model at regional scales and, further, such site specific models cannot be transferred to other spatial locations. We have developed a model to estimate cumulative streamflow depletion at given locations of a stream network resulting from both surface and groundwater abstractions. The surface water abstractions directly deplete the nearest river segment with which the abstraction is associated. However, depletion owing to each groundwater take, response times of which can extend to weeks, months or even years following the abstractions, was associated with all river segments which were within a 2 km radius of the groundwater take. The proportion of depletion from each river segment owing to a groundwater take is dependent on distance between well and segment, flow (based on the naturalised 7-day mean annual low flow) and length of the segment within 2 km radius of the well. Two aquifer parameters (transmissivity and storativity) are used for calculating the streamflow depletion. Field tests can be used to measure these parameters but observations are not available for all necessary locations. We used Random Forest statistical techniques to estimate the aquifer parameters at unmeasured locations. Results of the streamflow depletion model are displayed using an interactive application (app). The model can be used to obtain timeseries of cumulative stream depletion at any location in the river network from many spatially distributed abstractions.

How to cite: Rajanayaka, C., Booker, D., and Yang, J.: Estimating cumulative catchment streamflow depletion from abstractions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1803, 2021.

EGU21-13475 | vPICO presentations | HS10.2

Processes influencing groundwater in the coastal aquifer of Troia Portugal

Marlin Juchem, Maria da Conceição Neves, and Amélia Dill

Groundwater fluctuation in coastal aquifers depends on a number of processes which interact with each other in a complex way. In this work, we analyzed the response of the groundwater’s quality and quantity indicators of Troia costal aquifer to several forcing factors. Troia peninsula is underlayed by a multi-layer aquifer consisting of an upper phreatic layer freshwater porous aquifer, a salt water sandy layer with interbeded clay lenses and a deeper semi-confined karst aquifer. This study focuses on the upper aquifer region (10m depth), where influences of oceanic and atmospheric drivers are expected to be strongest. Groundwater data was collected from a borehole located approx. 200m from the shoreline. Hourly records of the piezometric level, conductivity, and temperature data from the hydrological year 2006-2007 were related to data of barometric pressure, rainfall and tides using correlation and singular spectral analytical methods. All variables (precipitation, barometric pressure and tidal cycles) uniquely affect the groundwater’s level and quality with different magnitudes and time scales. Regarding the long-term and larger scales, precipitation seems to be the most influential factor, contributing to 46 % of the variability of the groundwater time series. This percentage of variabillity is due the seasonality of the water cycle, with 29% related to the semi-annual cycle and 17% related to the quarterly cycle. The barometric pressure seems to affect the groundwater in similar scales as the precipitation, however tidal cycles have a much smaller impact. The tidal data was modelled with WxTides software with an interval of 15 minutes. The cyclic patterns of semidiurnal and fortnightly tidal-induced sea level changes can clearly be observed in the records of the groundwater level throughout the entire time series. Tides and groundwater level present a maximum positive correlation coefficient of 0.58 in the month of August, when other forcing factors, such as precipitation, are the lowest. Groundwater level displays a 16-day time lag with the precipitation, a two-day time lag with the barometric pressure and a two-hour time lag with the modelled tides. The correlations and lags found in this study are being used as a basis for ongoing research on the complexity of groundwater level oscillations in littoral zones. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.

How to cite: Juchem, M., da Conceição Neves, M., and Dill, A.: Processes influencing groundwater in the coastal aquifer of Troia Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13475, 2021.

River-Aquifer Interaction is a natural and complex phenomenon for understanding its physical dynamic processes. These interactions highly vary with time and space and are to be investigated at river reach scale. The present study aims to understand and quantify the spatio-temporal variations of river-aquifer interaction process in Kosi river basin, India. This basin is majorly dominated with agricultural lands and irrigation requirement of the crops are mostly met by groundwater. In order to quantify the river-aquifer exchange flux at reach scale, a physically based sub-surface hydrological model has been carried for the study area. For this purpose, high resolution remotely sensed evapotranspiration data and groundwater recharge (estimated using soil water budget method method) along with other aquifer parameters were utilized for simulating the monthly groundwater levels as well as exchange flux between river and aquifer. The model results showed that simulated groundwater levels were well calibrated and validated with measured groundwater levels. Further, this calibrated groundwater flow model has been used to quantify the river-aquifer exchange flux. Based on the obtained exchange flux values, three different interaction zones were identified from upstream (Kosi barrage) to downstream (confluence point with Ganga river) in the study reach. It is observed that the river mostly loses water to the aquifer (as influent) in Zone I (80km from upstream) and the river mostly gains water from the aquifer (as effluent) in Zone III (40 km above downstream to confluence point). Whereas, the river has a combination of both losing and gaining natures in Zone II (between Zone I and III). From this study, it can be concluded that use of satellite remote sensing inputs (groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration) in the sub-surface hydrological model, facilitated to improve the assessment and understanding river-aquifer interaction process in an alluvial River basin.

How to cite: Laveti, N. V. S., Kartha, S. A., and Dutta, S.: Investigating of River-Aquifer Interactions using Sub-Surface Hydrological Model and Remote Sensing Inputs in an agriculturally Dominated Kosi River Basin, India., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14106, 2021.

HS10.3 – General organising principles and optimality in ecohydrological systems

Optimality concepts have been used to successfully infer ecophysiological properties and functioning of terrestrial vegetation from the leaf- to ecosystem scale.  In many cases this implies, roughly speaking, that vegetation is as productive as it can possibly be.  However, when vegetation activity is looked at in terms of its energy conversion from the radiant energy in sunlight to the chemical energy stored in carbohydrates, it has a very low conversion efficiency of about 1% or less.  This is much less than what would be expected from thermodynamics applied to the photochemical conversion process.  How do these two seemingly contradictory views fit together?  Here I suggest that thermally-driven gas exchange between vegetation canopies and the lower atmosphere represents the major bottleneck, explaining the low thermodynamic efficiency of carbon uptake and setting a strong constraint to any form of vegetation optimality.  Gas exchange intimately links the carbon taken up by vegetation from the atmosphere for photosynthesis during the day with the water loss by evaporation, with evaporation being a major component of the surface energy balance.  The magnitude of this exchange is, however, not externally set by atmospheric conditions, but predominantly determined by the local heating of the surface, creating buoyancy and thus this exchange.  Thermodynamics sets a strong constraint on the magnitude of this locally generated exchange by the maximum power that can be derived from the absorption of solar radiation to generate the associated kinetic energy.  I use global, observation-based radiation and precipitation datasets and this thermodynamic constraint to quantify surface energy balance partitioning over land as well as the associated rate of evaporation at the climatological scale.  I then use a typical value for the water use efficiency observed in vegetation to convert this evaporative flux to a carbon uptake flux by vegetation and show that the derived fluxes of water and carbon compare very well to observation-based estimates across regions.  This means that the low thermodynamic efficiency of terrestrial carbon uptake should not be attributed to an inefficient use of light, but rather to the low efficiency by which radiative heating generates gas exchange that is needed to supply canopies with carbon dioxide and that maintains evaporation.  This interpretation has broad implications for the role of vegetation in the Earth system.  It implies that physically-driven gas exchange with the atmosphere - and not energy directly - is a major constraint on vegetation activity, shaping its geographic patterns.  Given this constraint, vegetation may then maximize its carbon uptake for the given evaporative flux, but it has comparatively little control over evaporation and surface energy balance partitioning if sufficient water is available.  Applied to global warming, this then implies that the response of evaporation is mostly determined by changes in the radiative forcing and water availability, and not by stomatal responses.

How to cite: Kleidon, A.: Why is the thermodynamic efficiency of carbon uptake by terrestrial vegetation so low despite its optimal functioning?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1382, 2021.

EGU21-4188 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Thermodynamic optimality principles in Earth sciences

Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Henk A. Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, and Erwin Zehe

Ecohydrological systems are a result of long-term co-evolution of soils, biota and atmospheric conditions, and often respond to perturbations in non-intuitive ways. Their short-term responses can be explained and sometimes predicted if we understand the underlying dynamic processes and if we can observe the initial state precisely enough. However, how do they co-evolve in the long-term after a change in the boundary conditions? In 1922, Alfred Lotka hypothesised that the natural selection governing the evolution of biota and composition of ecosystems may be obeying some thermodynamic principles related to maximising energy flow through these systems. Similar thoughts have been formulated for various components of the Earth system and individual processes, such as heat transport in the atmosphere and oceans, erosion and sediment transport in river systems and estuaries, the formation of vegetation patterns, and many others. Different thermodynamic optimality principles have been applied to predict or explain a given system property or behaviour, of which the maximum entropy production and the maximum power principles are most widespread. However, the different studies did not use a common systematic approach for the formulation of the relevant system boundaries, state variables and exchange fluxes, resulting in considerable ambiguity about the application of thermodynamic optimality principles in the scientific community. Such a systematic framework has been developed recently and can be tested online at:

https://renkulab.io/projects/stanislaus.schymanski/thermodynamic_optimality_blueprint

In the present study, we illustrate how such a common framework can be used to classify and compare different applications of thermodynamic optimality principles in the literature, and discuss the insights gained and key criteria for a more rigorous testing of such principles.

How to cite: Schymanski, S. J., Dewals, B., Dijkstra, H. A., Ozawa, H., and Zehe, E.: Thermodynamic optimality principles in Earth sciences, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4188, 2021.

In the Bramke valley (western Harz mountains, North Germany), three forested headwater catchments have been monitored since decades. A broad range of observables relevant to forestry, hydrology, hydrochemistry and ecosystem research allows to compare different approaches to environmental monitoring; each of them has its own set of relevant observables. The basic temporal resolution is daily for hydrometeorology and bi-weekly for streamwater chemistry; standing biomass of the Norway spruce stands is measured every couple of years.

Tree growth (site index) has changed between and within rotation periods (of up to 129 years); changes in soil nutrient pools are typical variables used to explain this nonstationary forest growth when the spatial-temporal scales match. In hydrology, transport mechanisms of water and solutes through catchment soils are used to model and predict runoff and its chemistry. Given the homogeneity of the area in terms of geology, soils and topography as well as climate, differences between the catchments in the Bramke valley are mostly related to forestry variables. The catchments exhibit long-term changes and spatial gradients related to atmospheric deposition, management and changing climate. After providing a short multivariate summary of the dataset, we present several nonlinear metrics suitable to detect and quantify subtle changes and to describe different behavior, both between different variables from the same catchment, as well as for the same variable across catchments.

Soil water potential and solution chemistry are further links between forestry and hydrology. However, at Lange Bramke, similar to other catchment studies, the evaluation of these data sets has not converged to a consistent, realistic model at the catchment scale. We hypothesize that this lack of model integration is due to theoretical rather than technical limits. A possible representation of these limits might be phrased in a category theory approach.

How to cite: Hauhs, M., Meesenburg, H., and Lange, H.: Long-term monitoring of vegetation and hydrology in headwater catchments and the difficulties to embrace data-oriented and process-oriented approaches, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7684, 2021.

EGU21-1300 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

The role of vegetation optimality in the Budyko-framework

Remko C. Nijzink and Stan Schymanski

The Budyko-framework is widely used to assess the water balance of catchments, with large catchments worldwide converging to a constrained set of empirical curves. Ongoing research focuses on explaining deviations of catchments from the Budyko-curve, implying that local characteristics, such as hydrological settings and land use, determine an individual curve for each catchment, along which the catchment travels in response to climatic variability. Here we use vegetation optimality to explain convergence on the Budyko-curve and assess if the Vegetation Optimality Model (VOM, Schymanski et al., 2009) and three conceptual hydrological models support the assumption that catchments follow individual Budyko-curves as climate varies.

The VOM optimizes vegetation properties, such as rooting depths and vegetation cover, for maximum Net Carbon Profit (NCP), i.e. the difference between the total amount of CO2 assimilated from the atmosphere and the carbon costs for maintenance and respiration of plants. In this sense, the VOM represents vegetation water use as the result of ecological adaptation, while the conceptual hydrological models lump water use into a set of calibration parameters. The following research questions were investigated:

- Does vegetation optimality lead to convergence of catchments on the Budyko-curve?

- Does modelled catchment response to changing precipitation follow a catchment-specific Budyko-curve?

The VOM was applied at five flux tower sites, as well as 36 additional points, along the North Australian Tropical Transect, following a strong precipitation gradient from north to south, and six other catchments in Australia. Beside the VOM, three conceptual hydrological models were applied to the Australian catchments for comparison. In a final step, these hydrological models were run for a selection of catchments in the contiguous United States to generalize the results from Australia.

For each site, the vegetation parameters of the VOM were optimized for maximum NCP, while the conceptual models were calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow. The simulated water balances were used to generate individual Budyko-curves for each site and model run. Subsequently, rainfall was stepwise increased or decreased and the models were re-run to test if each site would stay on its curve. In a second step, the vegetation was re-optimized in the VOM to simulate vegetation response to the new precipitation and the resulting water balance was again plotted on the Budyko-curve.

The individual Budyko-curves were consistently different for the different precipitation amounts, indicating that modelled responses do not follow a catchment-specific curve. Conversely, if vegetation was re-optimized in the VOM for each rainfall scenario, the different scenarios converged to a single curve for each study site. In other words, adjusting the vegetation to maximize the NCP made the study sites converge back to the initial Budyko-curve. This indicates that convergence onto a Budyko-curve and tracking along a catchment-specific Budyko-curve may not be due to physical constraints, as commonly assumed, but the result of biological adaptation to the environment.

References

Schymanski, S.J., Sivapalan, M., Roderick, M.L., Hutley, L.B., Beringer, J., 2009. An optimality‐based model of the dynamic feedbacks between natural vegetation and the water balance. Water Resources Research 45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006841

How to cite: Nijzink, R. C. and Schymanski, S.: The role of vegetation optimality in the Budyko-framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1300, 2021.

EGU21-11142 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Eco-evolutionary responses of plant communities to drought and rainfall variability

Jaideep Joshi, Benjamin Stocker, Florian Hofhansl, Shuangxi Zhou, Åke Brännström, Iain Colin Prentice, and Ulf Dieckmann

The future Earth is projected to experience elevated rainfall variability, with more frequent and intense droughts, as well as high-rainfall events. Increasing CO2 concentrations are expected to raise terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), whereas water stress is expected to lower GPP. Plant responses to water stress vary strongly with timescale, and plants adapted to different environmental conditions differ in their functional responses. Here, we embed a unified optimality-based theory of stomatal conductance and biochemical acclimation of leaves we have recently developed [Joshi, J. et al. (2020) Towards a unified theory of plant photosynthesis and hydraulics. bioRxiv 2020.12.17.423132] in an eco-evolutionary vegetation-modelling framework, with the goal to investigate emergent functional diversity and associated GPP impacts under different rainfall regimes.

The model of photosynthesis used here simultaneously predicts the stomatal responses and biochemical acclimation of leaves to atmospheric and soil-moisture conditions. Using three hydraulic traits and two cost parameters, it successfully predicts the simultaneous declines in CO2 assimilation rate, stomatal conductance, and leaf photosynthetic capacity caused by drying soil. It also correctly predicts the responses of CO2 assimilation rate, stomatal conductance, leaf water potential, and leaf photosynthetic capacity to vapour pressure deficit, temperature, ambient CO2, light intensity, and elevation. Our model therefore captures the synergistic effects of atmospheric and soil drought, as well as of atmospheric CO2 changes, on plant photosynthesis and transpiration.

We embed this model of photosynthesis and transpiration in a trait-height-patch structured eco-evolutionary vegetation model. This model accounts for allometric carbon allocation, height-structured competition for light, patch-structured successional dynamics, and coevolution of plant functional traits. It predicts functional species mixtures and emergent ecosystem properties under different environmental conditions. Using this model, we investigate the evolution of plant hydraulic strategies under different regimes of drought and rainfall variability. Our approach provides an eco-evolutionarily consistent framework to scale up the responses of plant communities from individual plants to ecosystems to provide ecosystem-level predictions of functional diversity, primary production, and plant water use, and could thus be used for reliable projections of the global carbon and water cycles under future climate scenarios.

How to cite: Joshi, J., Stocker, B., Hofhansl, F., Zhou, S., Brännström, Å., Prentice, I. C., and Dieckmann, U.: Eco-evolutionary responses of plant communities to drought and rainfall variability, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11142, 2021.

EGU21-13555 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Effects of warming, elevated CO2, and drought on root water uptake and its relation to root traits

Maud Tissink, Jesse Radolinski, David Reinthaler, Erich Pötsch, and Michael Bahn

Plants can modulate the source and magnitude of water uptake under environmental stresses, ultimately constraining water and energy fluxes across Earth’s surface. These alterations are scarcely quantified for future climatic scenarios such as warming, elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2), and droughts—all projected by the end of this century. Here we use diurnal soil moisture dynamics throughout the 2019 growing season to quantify the impacts of these three global change factors on root water uptake in a managed C3 mountain grassland in Austria; a key agricultural landscape within central Europe. To determine whether plants alter water uptake via root trait adjustments, we then compared water uptake to root morphological traits. We expected that 1) drought and eCO2 (+300 ppm) would reduce root water uptake relative to ambient conditions due to supply limitation and a lower stomatal conductance, whereas 2) greater vapor pressure gradients in warmed systems would elevate transpiration rates, increasing root water uptake. Plants reduced water uptake in droughted plots by ~35% regardless of other factors applied, due to decreased water extraction from the soil surface during the peak drought. Warmed plots had unexpectedly lower water uptake by 17-25% relative to control plots. Finally, vegetation in eCO2 plots displayed similar water uptake to plots under ambient conditions; however, eCO2 effects did buffer warming effects, such that plots with eCO2 and warming extracted less water than those subjected to warming alone. Root morphological traits showed strong linear correlations (R > 0.7, or R < -0.7) to root water uptake in ambient, drought, and eCO2 plots, yet no significant relationship was found for plots under warming or multifactor treatments. Relationships were strongest and most abundant following a drought. This suggests that—though plants may optimize root structure for drought recovery—plants may alter their root systems to account for resource limitations other than water in a warming climate. Altogether, we show that warming, eCO2, and droughts may significantly alter the root water extraction in managed C3 mountain grasslands, but changes in water availability alone may not fully explain plant water uptake responses.

How to cite: Tissink, M., Radolinski, J., Reinthaler, D., Pötsch, E., and Bahn, M.: Effects of warming, elevated CO2, and drought on root water uptake and its relation to root traits, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13555, 2021.

EGU21-3254 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Biogeographical Patterns of Light Use efficiency?

David Sandoval and Iain Colin Prentice

The emergent spatial organization of ecosystems in elevational gradients suggest that some ecosystem processes, important enough to shape morphological traits, must show similar patterns.

The most important of these processes, gross primary production (GPP), usually (albeit with some exceptions) decreases with elevation. This was previously thought to be a direct consequence either of the decrease in temperature, or the decrease of incident light due to cloud cover. However, some recent developments in photosynthetic theory, plus the unprecedented availability of ecophysiological data, support the hypothesis that plants acclimate (optimize) their photosynthetic traits to the environment. In this new theoretical context, the temperature is no longer considered as a major constraining factor, except when either freezing or excessively high temperatures inhibit plant function generally.

Two of the most important photosynthetic traits, the maximum rate of carboxylation (VCMAX) and the intrinsic quantum efficiency (φo), vary in opposite directions with increasing elevation. Plants tend to increase VCMAX to compensate for a decrease in the ratio leaf-internal to ambient partial pressures of CO2, while φo increases with temperature up to a plateau. To explore how these different responses, documented at leaf level, converge in emergent spatial patterns at ecosystem scale we considered how elevation shape light use efficiency (defined as the ratio of CO2 assimilated over light absorbed) over mountain regions worldwide. We used data from eddy-covariance flux towers, from different networks, located in mountain regions around the world, adding up to 618 station-years of record. To complement our analysis, we included theoretical predictions using an optimality model (P-model) and evaluated changes in the spatial pattern with simulation experiments.

Empirically we found an asymptotic response of LUE to the average daytime temperature during the growing season with increasing elevation, and a small, but globally consistent effect of elevation on LUE. We propose a theoretical explanation for the observation that temperature differences have little impact on the biogeographical pattern of LUE, but we also find that different assumptions on the acclimation of the maximum rate of electron transport (JMAX) and φo change this pattern.

How to cite: Sandoval, D. and Prentice, I. C.: Biogeographical Patterns of Light Use efficiency?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3254, 2021.

EGU21-10540 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Rising CO2 and warming lead to declining global canopy demand for nitrogen

Ning Dong, Iain Colin Prentice, Ian Wright, Xiangzhong Luo, and Nick Smith

Nitrogen (N) limitation constrains the magnitude of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to COfertilization and climate change. However, the trajectory of N demand, and how it is influenced by continuing changes in COand climate, is incompletely understood. We estimate recent changes in global canopy N demand based on a well-tested optimality hypothesis for the control of photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax). The predicted global pattern of optimal leaf-level Vcmax is similar to the pattern derived from remotely sensed chlorophyll retrievals. Over the period from 1982 to 2015, rising COand warming both contributed to decreasing leaf-level N demand. Widespread increases in green vegetation cover over the same period (especially in high latitudes) imply increasing total canopy N demand. The net global trend is, nonetheless, a decrease in total canopy N demand. This work provides a new perspective on the past, present and future of the global terrestrial N cycle.

How to cite: Dong, N., Prentice, I. C., Wright, I., Luo, X., and Smith, N.: Rising CO2 and warming lead to declining global canopy demand for nitrogen, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10540, 2021.

EGU21-3435 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Hydraulic constraints and stomatal optimization

Thomas Buckley

The classical Cowan-Farquhar approach to identifying optimal stomatal conductance treats total water loss as an imposed constraint. That approach can conflict, both physically and economically, with biophysical constraints on water transport. In this talk, I will illustrate these conflicts and discuss alternative approaches -- recently pioneered by Sperry, Wolf, Eller, and their colleagues -- that aim to penalize excessive transpiration by explicitly incorporating hydraulic risk, using hydraulic vulnerability curves (VCs). In this context, I will present preliminary efforts to determine whether VCs accurately reflect the actual probabilistic risk posed by low water potentials (that is, the expected reduction in total carbon gain), as well as an extension to the recent analytical solution by Eller et al.

How to cite: Buckley, T.: Hydraulic constraints and stomatal optimization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3435, 2021.

EGU21-6375 | vPICO presentations | HS10.3

Advancing carbon cycle projections with stomatal optimality models linked to plant hydraulics

William Anderegg, Kelly Kerr, John Sperry, Henry Todd, Anna Trugman, Martin Venturas, Yujie Wang, and Nicole Zenes

Optimal stomatal control models have shown great potential in predicting stomatal behavior and improving carbon cycle modeling. Basic stomatal optimality theory posits that stomatal regulation maximizes the carbon gain relative to a penalty of stomatal opening. Many optimization models take a similar approach to calculate instantaneous carbon gain from stomatal opening. But stomatal optimization models often diverge in how they calculate the corresponding penalty of stomatal opening. We will present our recent work on this penalty function, the conditions that influence the penalty function, and compare and evaluate 10 different optimization models in how they quantify the penalty and how well they predict stomatal responses to the environment. We quantitatively tested different models against multiple leaf gas-exchange datasets. The optimization models with better predictive skills have penalty functions that meet seven key criteria and use fitting parameters that are both few in number and physiology based. The most skilled models are those with a penalty function based on stress-induced hydraulic damage. We conclude by examining the key uncertainties in these optimization models for improving predictions of carbon and water fluxes, as well as demographic rates like drought-induced tree mortality.

How to cite: Anderegg, W., Kerr, K., Sperry, J., Todd, H., Trugman, A., Venturas, M., Wang, Y., and Zenes, N.: Advancing carbon cycle projections with stomatal optimality models linked to plant hydraulics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6375, 2021.

HS10.4 – Estimates of evapotranspiration from in-situ measurements: bridging scales and addressing uncertainties

EGU21-13326 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Towards a consistent quantification of ecosystem transpiration and its uncertainty from the SAPFLUXNET database

Rafael Poyatos, Víctor Granda, Víctor Flo, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta

Transpiration from forests and woodlands is the main component of terrestrial evapotranspiration. Ecosystem-scale transpiration estimates are needed to inform models and remote sensing products so that they can improve their quantification of the magnitudes, spatiotemporal patterns, and environmental sensitivity of transpiration at regional to global scales. Tree-level sap flow measurements can be used to estimate ecosystem transpiration in forests and woodlands and these data are now globally available in the SAPFLUXNET database (Poyatos et al. 2020). However, observational errors, sampling assumptions, and missing data propagate uncertainties in the upscaling process to the ecosystem level. Here we quantify ecosystem transpiration and its uncertainty, from hourly to annual scales, across SAPFLUXNET sites using two different approaches. In a first approach, we estimated hourly sap flow per unit basal area at the species level, which was then aggregated to the stand level using species-specific basal areas available in SAPFLUXNET metadata. In this approach, uncertainty was quantified from the observed variability in tree-level sap flow within a species. In a second approach, we used empirical relationships between tree diameter and sap flow to obtain stand-level transpiration and propagated the uncertainty in this relationship to the stand-level values. For both approaches, sap flow data obtained with uncalibrated heat dissipation probes were also adjusted using a recently published correction based on sap flow calibrations. The different upscaling methods, implemented in R code, will allow reproducible upscaling and uncertainty quantification from SAPFLUXNET datasets, paving the way towards a better understanding of ecosystem transpiration and its controls across the globe.

Poyatos, R., Granda, V., Flo, V., […], Steppe, K., Mencuccini, M., Martínez-Vilalta, J. (2020). Global transpiration data from sap flow measurements: the SAPFLUXNET database, Earth System Science Data Discussions, 1–57, .

How to cite: Poyatos, R., Granda, V., Flo, V., Mencuccini, M., and Martínez-Vilalta, J.: Towards a consistent quantification of ecosystem transpiration and its uncertainty from the SAPFLUXNET database, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13326, 2021.

EGU21-11096 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Using a global tree sap flow database as ground-truth for transpiration products validation

Paulo Bittencourt, Lucy Rowland, Stephen Sitch, Rafael Poyatos, Diego Miralles, and Maurizio Mencuccini

Transpiration (T) is a key driver of ecosystem energy, water and carbon flows and is tightly linked to climate and land-use change. While global models rely extensively on remotely sensed transpiration products to evaluate land-surface processes, ground-truth validation for these products does not exist. At best, data from eddy-covariance evapotranspiration is used, but the T component is partitioned based-on a set of complex assumptions, which are in themselves poorly validated for many parts of the world. Sapflow (SF) measurements allow direct quantification of tree-level T which can be used as ground-truth for T-products in forested areas. A recent global network of sapflux data, (SapFluxNet – SFN) has provided the first quality-controlled sapflow dataset at a global scale, opening up new opportunities to evaluate global T products.  Using the SFN-SF and Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) T product, we address i) how the time course of the two products scale with one another, and ii) whether this scaling is different between days with low, median or high T/ SF within months; in addition, iii) we evaluate errors patterns of GLEAM-T in relation to SFN-SF and test whether these errors are biased by site climate or by model inputs. Our results shows GLEAM-T scales with SFN-SF, especially for days with median transpiration, but this scaling, rather than 1:1, has a slope of 0.9, which causes underestimation of SFN-SF at high GLEAM-T values. The scaling is shallower for low and high transpiration days leading to a higher bias in those days. In addition, GLEAM-T scales from SFN-SF with an offset, which compensate the shallower scaling at median values at the expense of increasing bias at extremes. Our results also show errors of GLEAM-T in relation to SFN-SF are not random but depend on the location`s climate and on the soil moisture stress factor used within GLEAM transpiration model. Our work bridges, for the first time, the scale difference between trees and pixels and shows the potential of using ground-truth SF measurements for evaluating biases and patterns in global products.

How to cite: Bittencourt, P., Rowland, L., Sitch, S., Poyatos, R., Miralles, D., and Mencuccini, M.: Using a global tree sap flow database as ground-truth for transpiration products validation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11096, 2021.

EGU21-7403 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

A novel and robust procedure for upscaling sap velocity data based on the species-specific role of DBH and slope for explaining tree-to-tree variability 

Rémy Schoppach, Kwok Pan Chun, Quing He, Fabiani Ginevra, and Julian Klaus

Multi-species forests display a substantial tree-to-tree variability in transpiration induced by various vegetation and landscape characteristics. However, how to model transpiration accounting for tree-to-tree variability still needs to be developed. Diameter at breast height (DBH) is a representative variable of tree characteristics related to age, size and social position in the canopy. Landscape characteristics affecting transpiration are usually defined by topographical factors including slope, aspect, curvature, flow accumulation and topographic position index. Among all transpiration drivers, DBH and topographical factors represent the most stable controls over a growing season. Both play a key-role in defining the accessibility and the availability of the water sustaining transpiration flux and consequently in determining tree-to-tree variability in transpiration. However, previous studies showed that DBH and topographical factors can exhibit contrasting effects on sap velocity (a proxy of transpiration) depending on species and the hydro-meteorological conditions. So far, we are still lacking a detailed understanding of the species-specific influence of DBH and topographical factors on sap velocity, which hampers our ability to predict future forest water-use by impeding our capability to build robust procedures for upscaling sap-flow that accounts for tree-to-tree variability. In this study, we used a relative importance analysis to investigate the specie-specific and dynamic role of DBH and topographical factors on sap velocity. We monitored sap velocity in 28 beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oak (Quercus robur/petraea) trees in a 0.45 km² forested catchment. We found that the relative importance of DBH and topographical factors depended on species-specific water-use strategies. Based on these results, we developed a novel and robust procedure for upscaling sap velocity using a species-specific non-linear model of sap velocity response to temperature. This new procedure accounts for tree DBH and terrain’s slope for providing modelled time series of sap velocity. Finally, we compared our new procedure with other available upscaling procedure. In both cases, we used the measured sap velocity data to build models for each approach; then, we compared the modelled sap velocity to the real corresponding measured values of individual 28 trees in order to evaluate the differences between sap velocity estimations resulting from the two approaches. Over the whole year, the common procedure overestimated oak sap velocity by 39% ± 5.0 SE and 5% ± 2.3 SE for beech, while our new procedure led to an underestimation of only 4.8% ± 2.0 SE for oak and 12% ± 1.4 SE for beech. Our novel procedure also reduced the standard error of the estimation in both species and therefore the uncertainty on sap velocity of each tree. Moreover, our new procedure appeared to particularly outperform the common procedure during dry summer months when the estimation of forest transpiration is critical. During this period, our procedure slightly underestimated sap velocity by 5.8 ± 1.7% and 1.1 ± 1.9% while the common one overestimated sap velocity by 32.3 ± 4.8% and 8.5 ± 2.6% for oak and beech trees, respectively.

How to cite: Schoppach, R., Chun, K. P., He, Q., Ginevra, F., and Klaus, J.: A novel and robust procedure for upscaling sap velocity data based on the species-specific role of DBH and slope for explaining tree-to-tree variability , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7403, 2021.

EGU21-8251 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Transpiration of Acacia plantation under managed tropical peatland in Riau, Sumatra

Yogi Suardiwerianto, Sofyan Kurnianto, Adibtya Asyhari, Tubagus Muhamad Risky, Muhammad Fikky Hidayat, Rendy Kurnia, and Chandra Shekhar Deshmukh

Transpiration is a key process in the terrestrial ecosystems linking water, carbon, and energy exchanges between the vegetation and the atmosphere. However, the understanding of transpiration rate, its spatiotemporal dynamics, and the controlling factors in tropical peatlands are still constrained by limited measurements. This study aims to investigate the transpiration rates at the stand level of Acacia plantation under different groundwater levels. The measurements were performed at two large-scale lysimeter plots with groundwater level of 40 and 80 cm below the ground surface. The transpiration rate was quantified based on sap flow measurements from 16 trees with different diameters at breast height using heat ratio method. The initial results indicate that the transpiration rate was closely correlated to the meteorological parameters, including atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. The two plots with different groundwater level regimes exhibit the same diurnal pattern of transpiration rate yet shows differences in their magnitude. The findings from this study will improve the understanding about relative contribution of transpiration to the total water balance under different groundwater levels. Further, an ongoing measurement of above and below-ground biomass growth and hydrological modeling work will advance the knowledge on plant-water interaction from this ecosystem.

How to cite: Suardiwerianto, Y., Kurnianto, S., Asyhari, A., Muhamad Risky, T., Fikky Hidayat, M., Kurnia, R., and Shekhar Deshmukh, C.: Transpiration of Acacia plantation under managed tropical peatland in Riau, Sumatra, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8251, 2021.

EGU21-3889 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Integration of evapotranspiration estimates from scaled sap flow values and eddy covariance measurements in the BRIDGET toolbox

Sibylle K. Hassler, Peter Dietrich, Ralf Kiese, Mirko Mälicke, Matthias Mauder, Jörg Meyer, Corinna Rebmann, Marcus Strobl, and Erwin Zehe

Comparing estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) from different in-situ measurements – or between in-situ measurements and remote sensing products or modelling outputs – always entails the challenge of different scales and method-specific uncertainties. Especially when the estimates originate in different research disciplines, addressing and quantifying the various sources of uncertainty of the scaled ET values becomes a difficult task for individual researchers who are not familiar with all the methodological details.

The BRIDGET toolbox – developed within the Digital Earth project – wants to support the integration and scaling of diverse in-situ ET measurements by providing tools for storage, merging and visualisation of multi-scale and multi-sensor ET data. This requires an appropriate metadata description for the various measurements as well as an assessment of method-specific uncertainties which need to be supported by domain experts. We combine these tools in a standalone python package and also implement them in an existing virtual research environment (V-FOR-WaTer).

Our first use case defines and quantifies the various sources of uncertainty when scaling sap flow values from individual sensor measurements in a tree up to the transpiration estimate of a stand. Comparison estimates come from eddy covariance measurements, lysimeters and remote sensing products.

How to cite: Hassler, S. K., Dietrich, P., Kiese, R., Mälicke, M., Mauder, M., Meyer, J., Rebmann, C., Strobl, M., and Zehe, E.: Integration of evapotranspiration estimates from scaled sap flow values and eddy covariance measurements in the BRIDGET toolbox, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3889, 2021.

EGU21-13524 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

ET of a mosaic landscape – measurements and modelling

Uta Moderow, Stefanie Fischer, Thomas Grünwald, Philipp Körner, Uwe Spank, Ronald Queck, and Christian Bernhofer

Evapotranspiration changes with landuse, soil conditions and meteorological conditions. Landscapes in middle Europe are typically of mosaic pattern at micro to local scale with different landuses adjacent to one another and we therefore have areas of different ET. This work shall address how ET changes with landuse based on 10 years of Eddy-Covariance data for different landuses. In a first step, it will be focussed on two landuses (coniferous forest and grassland). ET obtained via measurements will be compared to ET obtained via modelling by a using a one dimensional soil-vegetation transfer scheme and a machine learning approach using gradient boosting. Results will be analysed whether typical characteristic properties of the respective landscape are preserved (e.g. Bowen ratio) as well as differences between land uses (e.g. differences in yearly ET estimates).

How to cite: Moderow, U., Fischer, S., Grünwald, T., Körner, P., Spank, U., Queck, R., and Bernhofer, C.: ET of a mosaic landscape – measurements and modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13524, 2021.

EGU21-453 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Diagnosis of environmental controls on daily actual evapotranspiration across a global flux tower network: the roles of water and energy

Qiong Han, Qin Liu, Tiejun Wang, Lichun Wang, Chongli Di, Xi Chen, Keith Smettem, and Shailesh Singh

Relative contributions from environmental factors to daily actual evapotranspiration (ETa) across a variety of climate zones and ecosystem types is a widely open research question, especially regarding the roles played by soil water content (SWC; water supply) and net radiation (Rn; energy supply) in controlling ETa. Here, the boosted regression tree method was employed to quantify environmental controls on daily ETa using the global FLUXNET dataset. Overall, the SWC impact on daily ETa increased with increasing aridity index (Φ). However, unlike the traditional Budyko theory that is applied at annual and mean annual scales, the daily FLUXNET data revealed that Rn still played a pivotal role at most sites (roughly Φ < 4), indicating that Rn could be a leading control on daily ETa even at water-limited sites. The variations in the relative controls of SWC and Rn also partly depended on factors affecting water availability for daily ETa (e.g., vegetation characteristics, soil texture, and groundwater depth). Especially, leaf area index exerted a stronger influence on ETa at drier sites than at relatively humid sites, suggesting that near-surface hydrological processes are more sensitive to vegetation variations due to their ability to extract deep soil water and enhance ETa, particularly under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions. As a result, the net effect of environmental controls other than SWC and Rn on ETa was more important at drier sites. Our findings illustrate how environmental controls on daily ETa change as climate and ecosystem vary, which has important implications for many scientific disciplines including hydrological, climatic, and agricultural studies.

How to cite: Han, Q., Liu, Q., Wang, T., Wang, L., Di, C., Chen, X., Smettem, K., and Singh, S.: Diagnosis of environmental controls on daily actual evapotranspiration across a global flux tower network: the roles of water and energy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-453, 2021.

EGU21-8138 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Partition of daily evapotranspiration using stable water isotope method and a modified Shuttleworth-Wallace Model for urban forest area

Jun Jie Gao, Han Chen, Jinhui Jeanne Huang, Edward McBean, Han Li, Jiawei Zhang, and Zhiqing Lan

Quantification of the contribution of transpiration (T) to evapotranspiration (ET) is important to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and guide precision irrigation. So far, few studies have examined seasonal variability of T/ET and its drivers under urban area. In this study, we applied a modified Shuttleworth-Wallace (S-W) model to partition ET for a locust tree forest in jinnan district of Tianjin city. The new model considers the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on vegetation transpiration and significantly improves the performance of the original S-W model. The Eddy Covariance (EC) and stable water isotope method was used to monitor and partition ET in locust tree forest. Isotope composition of ET (δET), soil evaporation (δE) and vegetation transpiration (δT) were determined using the Keeling-plot method, Craig-Gordon model and Steady-state assumption model (SSA), respectively. The verification result suggest the modified S-W model could provide reliable prediction for ET and its components. The modified S-W model estimated T/ET ranges from 0 to 1, with a near continuous increase over time in the early growing season when leaf area index (LAI) is small and then convergence towards a stable value when LAI is larger. The results show seasonal change in T/ET can be described well as a function of LAI, implying that LAI is a first order factor affecting ET partitioning, and soil moisture also influence the ET partitioning. This study reveals the change in T/ET patterns and its controlling factors in urban woodland areas. Understanding the impact of urbanization and human activities on the urban water cycle will allow more effective water use in urban environments.

 

How to cite: Gao, J. J., Chen, H., Huang, J. J., McBean, E., Li, H., Zhang, J., and Lan, Z.: Partition of daily evapotranspiration using stable water isotope method and a modified Shuttleworth-Wallace Model for urban forest area, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8138, 2021.

EGU21-6513 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Field calibration and correction of air water concentration measurements

Fyodor Tatarinov, Jonathan Muller, Eyal Rotenberg, and Dan Yakir

Infrared gas analyzers (IRGAs) are commonly used in Eddy Covariance (EC) system and are used for, in particular, the ecosystem water cycle. However, they suffer from a measurement drift of absolute concentrations with time, leading to the increasing bias of readings. It is recommended in the manuals to do a factory calibration once every 1-2 years (e.g., LI-6262) or user calibration when considerable drift occurs (e.g., LI-7000). However, our experience shows that a significant drift can occur within a few days already. At our semi-arid EC site of Yatir Forest (31˚20'N, 35˚03'E, Israel), we are measuring a vertical air humidity profile (absolute humidity, Cw in mmol×mol-1, and relative, RH, %),  to study the VPD regime within the canopy and to analyze dew formation events, which requires highly accurate RH measurements, however accurate RH measurements are difficult to achieve.

Air humidity in Yatir is measured by three different instruments: (1) LI-7000 close-pass IRGA above the canopy for EC flux calculations; (2) LI-6262 close-pass IRGA with inlets in 4 different heights from above the ground up to the sonic height, used for humidity profile measurements; (3) Rotronic HC2S3 air humidity (RH) and temperature (T) sensor above the canopy. Both IRGAs are placed within a temperature-controlled box, and calibrated for zero and span with N2, dew point generator and laboratory standard gases every 1-2 weeks. The Rotronic sensor has very low drift and does not require calibration, but is assumed to be less accurate, especially under high and low RH.

To achieve highly accurate measurements on daily time scale we propose a correction routine that rely on the stability of the RH probe, and the accuracy of the IRGAs after calibration. Every time the IRGA is calibrated, a correction-1 to the RH probe is produced. Between calibrations, the trends in the drifting IRGAs data are corrected (correction-2) to the interpolated stable RH probe data.

For the flux measurements, the mean absolute Cw error before correction was 1.0 mmol×mol-1, which translates under average temperature of 25°C and RH of 50% to errors of RH, VPD and dew point of 3.0%, 93.5 Pa and 0.9°C, respectively. Following our correction procedure, reduced the error to 0.5 mmol×mol-1, which decreased the errors in RH, VPD and dew point under the same conditions to 1.5%, 47 Pa and 0.4°C, respectively. For the humidity profile, Cw error after correction decreased from 1.9 mmol×mol-1 to 0.5 mmol×mol-1, which decreased the errors in RH, VPD and dew point under the same conditions by 4.1%, 131 Pa and 1.2°C, respectively.

We will describe the method in more detail and demonstrate its application to our field measurements.

How to cite: Tatarinov, F., Muller, J., Rotenberg, E., and Yakir, D.: Field calibration and correction of air water concentration measurements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6513, 2021.

EGU21-4577 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – observed dynamics during a warm summer

Femke A. Jansen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Cor M.J. Jacobs, and Pieter Hazenberg

Distinct differences in surface characteristics between a water body and a land surface result in different drivers of evaporation and therefore its dynamics. It is essential to include and represent this difference in the parameterization of open water evaporation (Ewater) to improve operational hydrological models. Additionally, more accurate parameterization becomes even more crucial to predict potential changes in quantity and dynamics of Ewater in a changing climate in support of optimal water management now and in the future.

For this purpose, we performed a long-term measurement campaign to measure Ewater and related meteorological variables over a large lowland reservoir in the Netherlands. During the summer seasons of 2019 and 2020 eddy-covariance systems were applied at two locations at the border of lake IJsselmeer in the Netherlands. These high temporal resolution measurements gave us the opportunity to explore the dynamics and identify the underlying driving mechanisms of Ewater. Using the data collected during the summer of 2019 we were able to develop a simple regression model for both measurement locations. Combinations, both sums and products, of the following independent variables were considered: global radiation, wind speed, water skin temperature, vapour pressure deficit, and vertical vapour pressure gradient. The product of wind speed and vertical vapour pressure gradient best explained the observed hourly Ewater rates, which is consistent with the commonly used aerodynamic approach. The model was validated using the data of 2020. Additionally, we compared measured Ewater to Ewater computed with Makkink’s equation, which is currently used in the Dutch operational hydrological models to estimate Ewater. Although a correction factor is applied to account for the difference between land evaporation and Ewater, Makkink is not able to capture the dynamics of Ewater. This was reflected in the timing and shape of the evaporation peak at both daily and monthly scales. The disagreement of Ewater dynamics found between the measured and simulated Ewater even more demonstrates the value and need of a correct parameterization of Ewater.

How to cite: Jansen, F. A., Teuling, A. J., Uijlenhoet, R., Jacobs, C. M. J., and Hazenberg, P.: Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – observed dynamics during a warm summer, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4577, 2021.

EGU21-6213 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Scintillometry Observations of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes over a Boreal Reservoir, Quebec, Canada

Adrien Pierre, Daniel Nadeau, Pierre-Érik Isabelle, Antoine Thiboult, Alain Rousseau, and François Anctil

Observations of sensible and latent heat fluxes over inland water bodies are unfortunately scarce and, yet, critical to the development of adequate lake parameterization for numerical weather forecast and climate models. When available, they usually consist of eddy covariance (EC) or lysimeter measurements, both representative of a relatively small footprint area, typically of a few hectares in the case of the EC approach. Over the past decades, we have seen the emergence of bichromatic scintillometry (SC), which allows for a ‘regional’ (~km2) estimation of turbulent heat fluxes. In brief, two beams travelling from a set of transmitters to a set of receivers scintillate in the turbulent air above the surface of interest and enable, using the Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory, the computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes at the land-atmosphere interface. While a handful of studies have looked at the performance of this approach over land surfaces, very few have assessed it over water bodies. This study presents an evaluation of scintillometry-derived turbulent heat fluxes over an 85-km2 boreal hydropower reservoir of eastern Canada (50.69°N, 63.24°W) with respect to those obtained with EC measurements collected on a nearby floating platform. The scintillometer beam path travelled for 1.7 km over a surface of the reservoir that reached depths of ~100m, from 14 August to 9 October 2019. Results indicate positive, day-and-night, latent heat fluxes throughout the whole period; highlighting that the reservoir steadily released heat over the second half of the open water period, from mid-august until freeze-up. Sensible heat fluxes peaked at night due to the near-surface air temperature vertical gradient reaching its daily maximum. For sensible heat fluxes, the SC approach corroborates well with the EC approach, while for latent heat fluxes, the agreement between EC and SC decreases. This suggests that the larger footprint of the SC system might be affected by heterogeneous surface flux characteristics in the reservoir, which encapsulates the need for large-scale measurements. Grouping results by atmospheric stability regimes does not improve comparison results. These results provide an opportunity to validate an innovative approach for measuring turbulent fluxes at a regional scale and, hence, improving our understanding of turbulent fluxes over large reservoirs and lakes.

How to cite: Pierre, A., Nadeau, D., Isabelle, P.-É., Thiboult, A., Rousseau, A., and Anctil, F.: Scintillometry Observations of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes over a Boreal Reservoir, Quebec, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6213, 2021.

EGU21-14622 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Comparison of FAO Crop Reference Estimates and Radiation based Estimates for Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Estimation

Rouhin Mitra, Mekonnen Gebremichael, Isabel Franco Trigo, and Henk A.R. de Bruin

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo), a hypothetical concept to estimate evapotranspiration from irrigated and large grass fields is crucial in finding the irrigation water demand in places with extensive agricultural practice. In general, the FAO method (based on the Penman-Monteith equation) is used to estimate ETo from stations that are placed in locations that violate the requirements for reference evapotranspiration. In this study we compare radiation-based methods used to estimate reference evapotranspiration such as ETo De Bruin and ETo Makkink with more conventional ETo approaches in FAO PM method and Priestley Taylor method using in-situ measurements from stations placed in two different settings: (1) Areas that are well-irrigated but surrounded by dry land, (2) Areas that are dry but extensive. We use two spatially dense networks of stations: 1) CIMIS stations of California located in irrigated and in-extensive fields, (2) MESONET stations of Oklahoma located on dry surfaces.  We analyze the differences in the ETo estimates and hypothesize that the radiation-based estimates give more accurate results in the conditions given above for irrigation advisory. We also assess the spatial variability of the different ETo estimates and attempt to investigate the reason behind the differences in these estimates due to the climatic factors.

How to cite: Mitra, R., Gebremichael, M., Trigo, I. F., and de Bruin, H. A. R.: Comparison of FAO Crop Reference Estimates and Radiation based Estimates for Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14622, 2021.

EGU21-10755 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

The role of available energy in estimating potential evaporation over different soil textures

Wanxin Li, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Philip Brunner, Zhi Li, and Wenke Wang

The potential evaporation rate (PE) depends on the available energy at the land-atmosphere interface and soil properties. The application of the full-form Penman-Monteith equation (PM) is often simplified. For example, the ground heat flux G is often assumed to be zero for calculating daily evaporation as the value of G is relatively small compared to the net radiation Rn. This and other simplifications consider that the PE value is mainly determined by meteorological variables and independent from soil properties. As the influence of soil textures on PE have so far received little attention, we analyzed data from a lysimeter experiment in the Guanzhong Basin, China. The potential evaporation rate was measured over saturated fine sand (PEfine), coarse sand (PEcoarse) and gravel sand (PEgravel) at a high temporal resolution. Meteorological variables, ground heat flux and soil temperature at different depths were observed from July 2018 to August 2019. The measured PE showed clear differences between the three saturated bare soils especially during spring and summer. Our previous research showed that these PE differences are controlled by differences in the available energy, related to differences in the total ground heat flux G for the three materials and different albedos. Both a detailed energy balance and the full-form PM equation can explain the PE differences between the different soil textures on the basis of hourly data. On the other hand, if the full-form PM equation is applied on daily data only minor differences in PE between the three textures are calculated. Our research suggests that the available energy should be calculated as precisely as possible, considering the soil porosity, thermal conductivity as well as albedo for the different soil textures, in order to estimate evaporation. 

How to cite: Li, W., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Brunner, P., Li, Z., and Wang, W.: The role of available energy in estimating potential evaporation over different soil textures, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10755, 2021.

EGU21-16298 | vPICO presentations | HS10.4

Measurements of Evaporation in Urban area: A Comparison of two soil sealing types

Basem Aljoumani, Anne Timm, Josep Sanchez, Björn Kluge, Gerd Wessolek, and Birgit Kleinschmit

Paved surfaces are a necessary infrastructure of cities, traditionally they are designed to carry vehicular, pedestrian traffic and transport products, and they provide public spaces for social communication. These paved surfaces also function as channels for waste matter, sewage, gas and electrical and as transport processes of water, matter, and energy between the soil and atmosphere in urban areas. In other hand, their characteristics lead to an altered hydrological balance compared to rural counterparts.

This study aimed to gain new insights into urban hydrological balance, in particular, the evaporation from paved surfaces. Hourly data of evaporation obtained from two high-resolution weighable lysimeters, these lysimeters are covered in two pavement sealing types commonly used for sidewalks in Berlin: cobblestones and concrete slabs. Soil volumetric water content and soil temperature of sandy soil was measured in the lysimeters with capacitance soil moisture sensors at 5cm depth. Moreover, time series consisted of hourly measurements climatology observations was obtained by climate station located near to the lysimeters. The measurements started in June 2016 and have been carried out for one year.

The data could be paired to estimate the variation of evaporation and how it was affected by cobblestones and concrete slabs and environmental factors.  In this case, a generalized additive model (GAM) for each sealing type was built, where the model response was the difference between the paired samples of evaporation from cobblestones and concrete slabs and the explanatory variables were the observations from the climate station and lysimeter data according to each sealing type. The statistical model tries to explain how the explanatory variables are related to a higher or lesser difference in evaporation between the two surfaces. As the result, the modelling approach showed that the evaporation from cobblestones tends to be higher than concrete slabs when the air temperate and soil temperature at 5 cm depth increases. The evaporation from cobblestone was also higher when the relative humidity was low, while the evaporation from concrete slabs was higher than cobblestones when the relative humidity was between 50 - 75%. When the relative humidity was higher than 75% the model showed that there was no difference in evaporating between the two sealing types.  The model showed also that the evaporation from concrete slabs tends to be higher than cobblestones when the solar radiation increases. Moreover, when the cumulative precipitation data in 9-hour intervals was higher than 10mm the cobblestone evaporates more than concrete slabs.

How to cite: Aljoumani, B., Timm, A., Sanchez, J., Kluge, B., Wessolek, G., and Kleinschmit, B.: Measurements of Evaporation in Urban area: A Comparison of two soil sealing types, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16298, 2021.

HS10.6 – Stable isotopes to study water and nutrient dynamics in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum

EGU21-8405 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6 | Highlight

Stable isotope insights into dryland ecohydrology

Michael Singer, Christopher Sargeant, John Stella, Kelly Caylor, Dar Roberts, Li Kui, Kudzai Kaseke, Marc Mayes, Lissa Pelletier, Jared Williams, Maria Warter, Romy Sabathier, Conor McMahon, Christopher Kibler, Bryn Morgan, and Melissa Rohde

Isotopic tracing of water sources for plants is an increasingly common method that supports insight into climatic controls on water availability to plants and their use of this available water, especially in water-limited environments where isotopic endmembers are distinct. Recent advances in this field of research have enabled characterization of annual and seasonal water use by plants, whose water sources vary in contribution along a continuum between groundwater (isotopically light) to infiltrated precipitation (isotopically heavy). Xylem samples are commonly used to characterize real-time uptake of water from roots, and they can be contextualized with respect to endmember water sources via sampling of root zone water, providing these endmembers are isotopically distinct. The time integration of seasonally varying water source usage results in the annually recorded isotopic signal recorded in tree ring cellulose for temperate trees and shrubs, which reflects the dominant water source used in the season of growth. This has enabled dendro-isotopic methods that are commonly used to reconstruct past climates (isotopically light = colder/wetter; isotopically heavy = warmer/drier). However, questions have arisen about the utility of these annually integrated dendro-isotopic signatures, given the strong seasonal variations of water use that are particularly pronounced in dryland ecosystems, including notable water source switching by plants.      

In our recent work, we have been pushing isotopic methods in new directions to better understand what plants can tell us about how climate affected hydrology across dryland regions, and about the associated plant responses. Drylands pose interesting research challenges, since water is typically the key limiting factor on dryland plant growth, and it is fundamental to the health, functioning, composition, distribution, and evolution of vegetation communities. In drylands, water availability to plants may vary dramatically across space and time, creating challenges for simple analyses of annual water use signatures. To aid the understanding of climatically-controlled ecohydrology in drylands, we have developed a new tool (ISO-Tool) based on established biochemical fractionation theory, which allows for back-calculation of water sources used for growth from tree-ring isotopes. This tool generates critical knowledge for evaluating dendro-isotopic signatures within the same reference frame as sampled endmember water sources, and it can be used for both annual and seasonal analyses of plant water use. We have also been working on a set of interdisciplinary metrics we call water stress indicators (WSIs), which support corroboration of information on climatic forcing, water availability, plant water uptake, and ecological health of terrestrial vegetation.   

Using these new methods, we have been able to identify important hydroclimatic gradients in water usage for the same species that reflect the local expression of climate into plant-available water. We have also begun to understand the whole continuum from climate forcing to root-zone water availability to tree growth to canopy health. We believe this broader continuum perspective is critical for tackling key ecohydrological questions especially in drylands, where we expect large variability in water availability across space and time.         

How to cite: Singer, M., Sargeant, C., Stella, J., Caylor, K., Roberts, D., Kui, L., Kaseke, K., Mayes, M., Pelletier, L., Williams, J., Warter, M., Sabathier, R., McMahon, C., Kibler, C., Morgan, B., and Rohde, M.: Stable isotope insights into dryland ecohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8405, 2021.

EGU21-14393 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6 | Highlight

Evapotranspiration flux dynamics in a changing climate

Jesse Radolinski, Maud Tissink, and Michael Bahn

Global change in the Anthropocene will impose various combinations of warming, atmospheric CO2 levels , and moisture availability on terrestrial ecosystems. A warming climate may increase vapor pressure gradients near plant and soil evaporation fronts driving higher rates of evapotranspiration (ET), whereas atmospheric CO2 enrichment (eCO2) can trigger stomatal closure, suppressing transpiration. Our best depiction of future water resources comes from controlled climate-manipulation experiments; however, climate change factors (e.g., eCO2, warming, and drought) are primarily studied in isolation, limiting the scope of inference. Here we use a series of chamber measurements taken throughout the 2020 growing season to quantify the individual and combined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 (+300 ppm), warming (+ 3°C) and recurrent drought on evapotranspiration and plant water use in a mountain grassland. Though water use efficiency (WUE) was nearly identical between “future” (+300 ppm CO2 and 3°C) and “current” (ambient conditions) systems during drought simulations, the future plots maintained a 2-3 fold higher WUE with the twice the inter-measurement variance during the post-drought recovery period. The isotopic signatures of droughted plots were generally isotopically depleted compared to their non-drought counterparts at peak drought, and the future drought systems had 20 ‰ lighter bulk ET δ2H compared to plots receiving warming alone. Altogether these preliminary results suggest that 1) drought under a future warmer climate and eCO2 may drive grassland ecosystems to conserve water; 2) when warmed, mountain grasslands may preferentially return recently fallen precipitation to the atmosphere, whereas 3) drought can induce preferential withdrawal of older water storage. Future work will include the use of StorAge Selection (SAS) modeling to characterize the preference of water residence time to atmospheric fluxes under a changing climate.

How to cite: Radolinski, J., Tissink, M., and Bahn, M.: Evapotranspiration flux dynamics in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14393, 2021.

EGU21-12207 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

A global meta-analysis reveals a significant offset in δ2H between plant water and its sources

Javier de la Casa, Adrià Barbeta, Asun Rodriguez-Uña, Lisa Wingate, Jérôme Ogeé, and Teresa E. Gimeno

 

Long-standing ecological theory establishes that the isotopic composition of the plant water reflects that of the root-accessed sources, at least in non-saline or non-xeric environments. However, a growing number of studies challenge this assumption by reporting plant-source offsets in water isotopic composition, for a wide range of ecosystems. We conducted a global meta-analysis to systematically quantify the magnitude of this plant-source offset in water isotopic composition and its potential explanatory factors. We compiled 108 studies reporting dual water isotopic composition (δ2H and δ18O) of plant and source water. From these studies, we extracted the δ2H and δ18O of both plant and source waters for 223 plant species from artic to tropical biomes. For each species and sampling campaign, within each study, we calculated the mean line conditioned excess (LC-excess), with the slope and intercept of the local meteoric water line, and the mean soil water line conditioned excess (SWL-excess), from the slope and intercept of the soil water evaporation line. For each study site and sampling campaign, we obtained land surface temperature and volumetric soil water from the ERA5 database. For each study species, we recorded the functional type, leaf habit and for those available wood density. We found, on average, a significantly negative SWL-excess: plant water was systematically more depleted in δ2H than soil water. In > 90% of the cases with significantly negative SWL-excess, we also found negative LC-excess values, meaning that access to sources alternative to soil water was unlikely to explain negative SWL-excess values. 

Calculated SWL-excess was affected by temperature and humidity: there were larger mismatches between plant and source water in isotopic composition in colder and wetter sites. Angiosperms, broadleaved and deciduous species exhibited more negative SWL-excess values than gymnosperms, narrow-leaved and evergreen species. Our results suggest that when using the dual isotopic approach, potential biases in the adscription of plant water sources are more likely in broadleaved forests in humid, and cold regions. Potential underlying mechanism for these isotopic mismatches will be discussed.

 

How to cite: de la Casa, J., Barbeta, A., Rodriguez-Uña, A., Wingate, L., Ogeé, J., and Gimeno, T. E.: A global meta-analysis reveals a significant offset in δ2H between plant water and its sources, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12207, 2021.

EGU21-11487 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

The isotopic composition of phloem water and its relations to xylem water at daily and sub-daily resolutions

Magali F. Nehemy, Benettin Paolo, Andrea Rinaldo, and Jeffrey J. McDonnell

Isotopic tracing is de rigueur in ecohydrology and for quantifying tracing water sources that contribute to xylem water. But, tree transpiration is not a one dimensional process from roots to leaves. Three dimensional storages actively participate in water transport within the stem complicating in unknown ways, the otherwise straightforward tracing from source to xylem. Phloem is the largest elastic storage and works as a hydraulic capacitor, and as such is of great importance to tree water transport and functioning. Water stored in phloem moves into xylem vessels buffering changes in xylem water potential and sustaining tree hydraulic integrity. Although phloem water is of great importance to transpiration, we lack understanding about the relationship between xylem and phloem water isotopic composition. Assessing the isotopic composition of phloem is a needed next step to fully comprehend patterns of tree water use and improve understanding about isotopic offset between xylem and source water. Here we show daily and sub-daily dual-isotope measurements of phloem water in relation to xylem and leaf water in Salix viminalis along with high-resolution measurements of plant water status and transpiration rates in a large lysimeter. We found that phloem was more depleted in heavier isotopes than xylem and leaves. On average δ2H phloem water was 2.05 ‰ and δ18O phloem water was 0.66 ‰ more negative than xylem water. The largest difference observed between phloem and xylem isotopic composition occurred at night during a period of tree water deficit. Although, there was variability in the observed difference between xylem and phloem throughout the experiment, xylem and phloem isotopic composition were highly correlated (δ2H r = 0.89; δ18O r = 0.75). Our sub daily measurements showed that xylem and phloem differences decreased during predawn and morning compared to previous evening and midday measurements. We observed that the δ2H difference between phloem and xylem increased with the increase in daily use of phloem water storages, while δ18O difference between phloem and xylem increased with transpiration rate. Our results show that xylem and phloem isotope composition are in sync and that observed differences can be related to changes in plant water status and possible fractionation associated with transport within phloem-xylem. Further studies are necessary to understand how phloem affects source water interpretations across different tree species and larger trees, where phloem contribution to daily transpiration may be larger.

How to cite: Nehemy, M. F., Paolo, B., Rinaldo, A., and McDonnell, J. J.: The isotopic composition of phloem water and its relations to xylem water at daily and sub-daily resolutions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11487, 2021.

EGU21-2945 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Sapwood-Heartwood isotopic composition in four forest species: implications for isotopes studies

Ginevra Fabiani, Daniele Penna, and Julian Klaus

Obtaining reliable estimates of isotopic composition of xylem water transported in tree stems is crucial for ecohydrological studies. In most tree species xylem consists of two physiologically different parts, sapwood and heartwood. The former functions as the flowpath for sap flow, whereas the latter does not conduct water and provides mechanical support to the stem. However, some studies highlighted that water stored in heartwood might sustain transpiration by providing water during dry periods. Therefore, assessing how the isotopic composition in sapwood and heartwood compartments changes over time is critical to explain tree hydraulic.

Typically, studies rely on wood cores from the tree trunk to isotopically characterize xylem water in order to assess water sources for tree use (e.g., soil water from different depths, groundwater, stream water or a mixture of those), and only few studies specified which functional portion of the wood was sampled. There is currently a lack of knowledge on the possible isotopic difference between heartwood and sapwood potentially leading to uncertainties on the origin of the extracted water.

In the present study, we investigate four forest species characterised by different xylem anatomy, wood density, and timing of physiological activity to evaluate the degree of differentiation in isotopic composition between sapwood and heartwood.

We carried out biweekly sampling campaigns over one growing season (March-October 2020) in a central European forest (Luxembourg) to assess sapwood and heartwood isotopic composition and water content of European beech (Fagus sylvatica), sessile oak (Quercus petraea), douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), and spruce (Picea abies).

Preliminary results showed a temporal variation in isotopic composition both in sapwood and heartwood for all investigated species. In conifers, we found a stronger difference in isotopic composition and water content between sapwood and heartwood compared to broadleaved species suggesting a larger degree of compartmentalization. Heartwood displays consistently heavier oxygen delta values compared to sapwood in all species whereas sapwood shows heavier hydrogen delta values compared to heartwood only in conifers. These preliminary results suggest that the occurrence of potential mixing between older water stored in the heartwood and newly uptake water flowing in the sapwood should be taken into account in tree water uptake studies.

How to cite: Fabiani, G., Penna, D., and Klaus, J.: Sapwood-Heartwood isotopic composition in four forest species: implications for isotopes studies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2945, 2021.

EGU21-8211 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Apple trees, larches and their water uptake: distinct ecohydrological systems in contrasting environmental settings?

Stefano Brighenti, Giacomo Bertoldi, Agnese Aguzzoni, Damiano Zanotellii, Nikolaus Obojes, Massimo Tagliavini, Giulia Zuecco, Marco Borga, Daniele Penna, Ginevra Fabiani, and Francesco Comiti

Different water sources can contribute to plant transpiration in Alpine environments, such as rainfall, snowmelt, irrigation and/or stream waters that are temporarily stored in the vadose and saturated zones. Particularly, the proportion of water uptake from different soil depths can strikingly differ depending on the species and the local environmental conditions such as the availability of freshwater resources, and local climatic and pedological settings.

We aim at estimating the relative contributions of different water sources (i.e., soil water at various depths and groundwater) to tree transpiration with the use of stable water isotopes. Our work is part of a wider national project (WATZON: WATer mixing in the critical ZONe) studying the relationship between plants, soil and water in contrasting natural and semi-natural environments of Italy. Here we report the results of monitoring activities in two different ecosystems in South-Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps): an apple orchard growing on a deep (>2.5 m) sandy soil of the Adige floodplain (Binnenland), and a sub-alpine conifer forest located on steep slopes with a shallow (10-60 cm) skeletal soil (Mazia, 2000 mt a.s.l.), where we selected European larch (Larix decidua) as a model-species. Water (precipitation, stream water, groundwater), soil at different depths and twigs samples were collected fortnightly from May to November 2020, and weather conditions (automatic stations), soil parameters (moisture and temperature) at different depths and sapflow were continuously recorded over the entire period.

At both locations, precipitation waters had a heavier isotopic composition than stream water and groundwater, that did not show any significant difference between each other in terms of isotopic signature. While all these potential water sources plotted on the local meteoric water line, shallow soil water samples (5-15 cm) deviated from it revealing a stronger and more variable evaporative fractionation when compared with those of deeper soil (25-65 cm). Xylem water samples from apple trees at Binnenland overlapped with soil water samples, more consistently at 10-30 cm depths. This water mostly derived from infiltrated rainwater but with a non-negligible contribution from groundwater during July and August. In contrast, xylem water from larch trees at Mazia plotted on the local meteoric water line, and had an isotopic composition more similar to that of precipitation than soil water even for samples collected after several days of drying out. As sapflow measurements of larches revealed a continuous transpiration, it is unlikely that trees took up water only soon after precipitation events. Instead, we hypothesize that larches at Mazia likely rely on a water pool which is different from the soil (e.g., rock moisture).

These contrasting ecohydrological systems reveal different strategies of water use by dwelling plants in natural and anthropic systems, showing a distinct sensitivity and resilience to changing climate.

How to cite: Brighenti, S., Bertoldi, G., Aguzzoni, A., Zanotellii, D., Obojes, N., Tagliavini, M., Zuecco, G., Borga, M., Penna, D., Fabiani, G., and Comiti, F.: Apple trees, larches and their water uptake: distinct ecohydrological systems in contrasting environmental settings?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8211, 2021.

EGU21-9289 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Water sources for apple trees in Alpine orchards: where does irrigation water go?

Daniele Penna, Jason Frentress, Damiano Zanotelli, Francesca Scandellari, Agnese Aguzzoni, Michael Engel, Massimo Tagliavini, and Francesco Comiti

Understanding the dynamics and sources of root water uptake in agricultural systems is becoming increasingly important for implementing efficient and sustainable water resources management and, at the same time, for optimizing crop yield and quality under changing climatic conditions. In this work, we adopted the stable isotope approach to investigate the water sources accessed by apple trees in two orchards growing in the upper Etsch/Adige valley (South Tyrol, Eastern Italian Alps). We tested the general hypothesis that soil water, composed of a mixture of rain and irrigation water, was the main source for tree transpiration but that river water and groundwater mixed with soil water and contributed to root uptake for trees growing close to the river and with higher water table. Our results revealed that apple trees during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons relied mostly on soil water present in the upper 20-40 cm of soils, with an apparently negligible contribution of groundwater and river water, irrespective of the field position across the valley bottom. The isotopic composition of xylem water did not reflect the one of irrigation water (and neither that of groundwater) but rather of rainfall and throughfall, as well as that of soil water. We related this “hidden” tracer signature of irrigation water to the effect of soil evaporation that strongly modified its original isotopic composition: irrigation and rain water infiltrated into the soil and mixed with isotopically fractionated soil water, and trees took up a mixture of water with different isotopic composition compared to the one of the original irrigation source. This work contributes to improve the understanding of water uptake strategies in Alpine apple orchards and paves the way for further analysis on the proportion of irrigation and rain water used by apple trees in mountain agroecosystems.

How to cite: Penna, D., Frentress, J., Zanotelli, D., Scandellari, F., Aguzzoni, A., Engel, M., Tagliavini, M., and Comiti, F.: Water sources for apple trees in Alpine orchards: where does irrigation water go?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9289, 2021.

EGU21-8136 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Applying stable water isotopes to determine root water uptake patterns in an urban forest land

Zhiqing Lan, Han Chen, Han Li, Jinhui Jeanne Huang, Edward McBean, Jiawei Zhang, and Junjie Gao

The scarcity of water resources is an important issue in urbanization. Urban forest land water consumption accounts for a large part of urban water resources, the study of water uptake patterns in urban forest area is crucial for urban water saving and precision irrigation, but no identified research have investigated water uptake patterns in urban forest area until now. In this study, we measured the deuterium isotope ratio (δD) and the oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) of precipitation, irrigation water, xylem water and soil water sources in a locust tree forest in Jinnan District of Tianjin City, China across 2019-2020. Water sources proportion in the root zone area of different growing seasons were obtained by IsoSource model, MixSIR model and SIAR model. Results show that there is a significant difference in soil moisture content between different stand age locust trees in time and depth variation. The trend of soil moisture of different stand ages of locust in time sequence intend to increase first and then decrease, the most significantly change of soil water content happened in shallow layer (0~40 cm). The change in vertical depth is about the same. The soil profile of 0-200 cm was discretized into three layers. The shallow layer (0~40 cm) soil water δD and δ18O fluctuated widely and decreased with the depth increased. This study revealed the dynamic replenishment of the root zone water in urban forest land, and provides insights into reforestation and water management in urban area.

How to cite: Lan, Z., Chen, H., Li, H., Huang, J. J., McBean, E., Zhang, J., and Gao, J.: Applying stable water isotopes to determine root water uptake patterns in an urban forest land, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8136, 2021.

EGU21-8855 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Assessment of evaporation and transpiration ratios under varying moisture conditions in a soybean field.

Gunther Liebhard, Andreas Klik, Christine Stumpp, Peter Strauß, and Reinhard Nolz

Freshwater is a scarce resource facing a growing demand. One aspect of this growing demand arises from the expansion and intensification of crop production on irrigated land. To preserve valuable water resources, agricultural water management must aim at an efficient use of water. This can be approached by facilitating sufficient water supply for optimal crop transpiration (T) and thus crop production, and at the same time reduce unproductive water losses due to soil evaporation (E). In this regard, knowing the ratios of E and T and how they are affected by environmental and management conditions is required to develop, adapt, and evaluate agricultural practices with respect to efficient water use.

The study aimed at applying a modified E-T-partitioning method to evaluate irrigation and how varying water availability affected E and T ratios. Field experiments were conducted 2019 in Groß-Enzersdorf in the agricultural region Marchfeld east of Vienna, Austria (48°12’ N, 16°34’ E; 157 m elevation a.s.l., average annual precipitation of approx. 540 mm). A conventionally managed field was planted with soybean (glycine max l. merr) and irrigated twice with a hose reel irrigation machine. Partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) was analyzed using an adapted water balance and stable isotope mass balance method. Monitoring throughout the soybean vegetation period comprised weekly analyses of the isotopic composition of soil samples, the profile water content in 10 cm steps down to 80 cm, weather data, the isotopic signatures of precipitation and irrigation water, ET, and crop growing stages. ET was measured with eddy covariance technique, and isotopic fractionation for determining E and T ratios was calculated from measured boundary conditions.

Weekly T ratios from blossom to beginning of maturation of soybean ranged from 56 to 84 %, which is in agreement with studies based on comparable partitioning methods. The relation between E and T did not only progress according to the canopy development but also responded to water availability in the rooting zone. During the vegetative growth stage, for example, the proportion of T was larger at partial canopy cover and sufficient water availability (from spring precipitation) compared to full canopy cover and when facing soil water stress. When soil surface was dry, E dropped to almost zero. On the other hand, a wetted surface substantially raised the E, even under closed canopy. Multiple small rain events during full canopy cover mainly contributed to E. As the analyses sufficiently revealed the relations of E and T ratios to changing boundary conditions, the method proved useful to evaluate irrigation events and strategies and deduce further improvements. In case of using a hose reel irrigation machine, the results suggest an intensification of the individual watering. However, a quantitative relationship between irrigation and the amount of water used for T would require shorter evaluation intervals of 2-3 days.

How to cite: Liebhard, G., Klik, A., Stumpp, C., Strauß, P., and Nolz, R.: Assessment of evaporation and transpiration ratios under varying moisture conditions in a soybean field., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8855, 2021.

EGU21-12351 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Nitrification in tree canopies of European forests: evidence from oxygen isotopes in nitrate and microbial analyses in rainfall and throughfall water. 

Rossella Guerrieri, Anna Barceló, Stefania Mattana, Joan Calíz, Emilio Casamayor, David Elustondo, Sofie Hellsten, Giorgio Matteucci, Päivi Merilä, Greg Michalski, Manuel Nicolas, Anne Thimonier, Elena Vanguelova, Arne Verstraeten, Peter Waldner, Mirai Watanabe, Josep Peñuelas, and Maurizio Mencuccini

There is mounting evidence demonstrating that fluxes and chemical composition of precipitation is substantially changed after passing through tree canopies, particularly in the case of atmospheric nitrogen (N) compounds, with important implications on forest N cycling. However, the processes underpinning those changes – beyond the leaf retention and/or leaching of N compounds - have been less investigated. In a previous study we provided isotopic evidence that biological nitrification in tree canopies was responsible for significant changes in the amount of NO3- from rainfall to throughfall across two UK forests at high nitrogen (N) deposition. This finding strongly suggested that forest canopies are not just passive filters for precipitation water and dissolved nutrients, and that the microbial life hidden within them can be responsible for transforming atmospheric N before it reaches the soil. We extended the isotopic approach at the European scale, and combined it to next-generation sequence analyses with the aim of elucidating canopy nitrification and identify phyllosphere microbes responsible for it. Specifically, in this study we: 1) estimated the relative contribution of NO3- derived from biological canopy nitrification vs. atmospheric deposition by using δ18O and δ17O of NO3- in rainfall and throughfall water; 2) quantified the functional genes related to nitrification, and finally 3) characterized the microbial communities harboured in tree canopies (i.e., phyllosphere) and in the underlying soils for two dominant tree species in Europe (Fagus sylvatica L. and Pinus sylvestris L.) using metabarcoding techniques. We considered twelve sites included in the European ICP Forests monitoring network, chosen along climate and N deposition gradients, spanning from Fennoscandia to the Mediterranean. We will show that presence of nitrifying microbes (as assessed through qPCR) and their activity (as derived from δ18O and δ17O) were detected in the tree canopies across most of the sites, and that canopy nitrification was significantly correlated with atmospheric N deposition. Finally, we will discuss differences in microbial community structure and composition across phyllosphere (and between the two tree species considered), water and soil samples in the investigated forests. Our study demonstrates the potential of integrating stable isotopes with microbial analyses to advance our understanding on canopy-atmosphere interactions and their contribution to N cycling.

How to cite: Guerrieri, R., Barceló, A., Mattana, S., Calíz, J., Casamayor, E., Elustondo, D., Hellsten, S., Matteucci, G., Merilä, P., Michalski, G., Nicolas, M., Thimonier, A., Vanguelova, E., Verstraeten, A., Waldner, P., Watanabe, M., Peñuelas, J., and Mencuccini, M.: Nitrification in tree canopies of European forests: evidence from oxygen isotopes in nitrate and microbial analyses in rainfall and throughfall water. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12351, 2021.

EGU21-14845 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Drivers of spatial and temporal soil water isotope variability in a sub-arctic catchment

Filip Muhic, Pertti Ala-Aho, Hannu Marttila, and Björn Klöve

Research on ecohydrological separation and plant water use have been increasing in the last few years, and various studies indicate that trees can use winter precipitation as a dominant water source during the growing season. Such studies are of great importance to northern regions, where soil water recharge timing is predicted to be significantly altered due to climate change. In order to assess plant water use in sub-arctic environment, it is necessary to understand how soil water pools under different land covers evolve throughout the year and how cryogenic processes alter the isotope input signal. This field study was conducted from May 2019 to June 2020 in Pallas catchment, located in sub-arctic conditions in Finnish Lapland. Soil cores up to 1 meter depth with 5 cm increments and xylem water of dominant tree species were collected in 4 locations, ranging from forest to shrubland/forest transitional area, and to forested peatland. All locations are positioned on a snow survey, in the vicinity of previously installed groundwater wells and snow lysimeters, and within 2 kilometers of rain gauge. Additional spatial samples of topsoil and xylem water were collected throughout the catchment during 2019 growing season. Relative proportions of tree source water were calculated by Bayesian mixing model MixSIAR. We produce new data set that displays plot and catchment scale soil water heterogeneities in a snow dominated environment, and examine: i) How soil properties affect isotopic composition of soil water?; ii) What is the effect of rising groundwater level on soil water isotope composition?; and iii) How snowpack thickness and melt timing modify soil water isotope patterns? We analyze if these varying pools of water are reflected in tree xylem water. Soil water isotope dynamics under deep snowpack, during and after snowmelt reveal how snow accumulation and melt timing and magnitude influence plant available water for growing season.

How to cite: Muhic, F., Ala-Aho, P., Marttila, H., and Klöve, B.: Drivers of spatial and temporal soil water isotope variability in a sub-arctic catchment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14845, 2021.

EGU21-5182 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

The influences of climatic and biotic parameters on the isotopic offset among topsoil waters in typical vegetation types in alpine

Wenyi Qin, Guo Chen, Peng Wang, Xiang Wang, and Xiaozhen Li

Hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope compositions in soil waters have been widely used to investigate hydrologic cycles, particularly for understanding plant water usage. However, most studies of soil water isotopes have traditionally ignored the importance of O-horizon that may potentially influence the accurate evaluation of hydrologic processes, especially in alpine regions where O-horizon are thick due to low temperatures. Therefore, we investigated the isotopic differences (via mean effect size, lnRR) of waters from O-horizon and 0–10 cm soil layer in grasslands and woodlands of Western Sichuan alpine regions and evaluated the influences of climatic and biotic factors on observed differences. The results indicated that the δ2H and δ18O of O-horizon water were significantly higher than those of the 0–10 cm soil layer in grasslands, but these differences were not significant in woodlands. The influence of climatic factors on lnRR was limited relative to biotic factors, and the influence of climate contrasted with expectations based on evaporation principles. Rather, above ground biomass (AGB) was the most important factor associated with lnRR and it was significantly correlated with lnRR between and within soil waters from two vegetation types. Consequently, the observed differences were mainly related to vegetation conditions that influence microclimates within canopies. Therefore, investigations of hydrological processes may inaccurately estimate their influences when not separately considering the high stable isotopes values of O-horizon in grasslands of alpine regions with thin soil layers. In particular, the influence of O-horizon should especially be considered when AGB was lower than 100 t/hm2 not only in grassland but also in other vegetation types.

How to cite: Qin, W., Chen, G., Wang, P., Wang, X., and Li, X.: The influences of climatic and biotic parameters on the isotopic offset among topsoil waters in typical vegetation types in alpine, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5182, 2021.

EGU21-640 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Characterizing the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water stable isotopes on a karst hillslope in southwestern China

Qin Liu, Tiejun Wang, Cong-qiang Liu, and Xi Chen

Soil water stable isotope compositions (SWSI; i.e., δD and δ18O) and soil moisture content (SMC) are widely used to illuminate water exchange processes across the atmosphere-land interface. Thus, the knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics of these two variables is critical to help our understanding of relevant ecohydrological processes. However, in comparison to the efforts for elucidating the spatiotemporal variability in SMC, much less attention was paid to understand the spatiotemporal variability in SWSI, which also raises the question as to whether SWSI and SMC share similar spatiotemporal features. To this end, the spatiotemporal dynamics of SWSI and SMC were jointly investigated on a karst hillslope with eight sampling campaigns among two years. The method of temporal stability analysis (TSA) was adopted to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of SWSI and SMC in this study. Generally, both δD and δ18O exhibited considerable temporal and spatial variations; meanwhile, the variations in δD and δ18O values were relatively smaller than that of SMC. In addition, in comparison with the spatial pattern of SMC, there were no clear relationships between the standard deviation (SD) and the spatial mean of δD or δ18O. However, the SD of line-conditioned excess (lc-excess) and its mean values displayed a strong negative correlation, indicating that the spatial variations in lc-excess increased with soil evaporation. Moreover, SWSI displayed weaker temporal stability than SMC and no clear controlling factors were identified, suggesting that the spatiotemporal dynamics of SWSI might be more complex than that of SMC. This study provided comprehensive field evidence that there existed profound spatiotemporal variability in SWSI and its spatiotemporal features were different from SMC, highlighting that the spatiotemporal variability in SWSI needs to be considered in isotope-based estimations and it should be investigated separately from the spatiotemporal characteristics of SMC in future studies.

How to cite: Liu, Q., Wang, T., Liu, C., and Chen, X.: Characterizing the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water stable isotopes on a karst hillslope in southwestern China, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-640, 2021.

EGU21-2407 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Characterization of hydraulic properties in the upper vadose zone for two aquifers in Slovenia

Vesna Zupanc, Matjaž Glavan, Miha Curk, Urša Pečan, Michael Stockinger, Gerhard Kammerer, Devakunjari Vadibeler, and Christine Stumpp

Environmental tracers, present in the environment and provided by nature, provide integrative information about both water flow and transport. For studying water flow and solute transport, the hydrogen and oxygen isotopes are of special interest, as their ratios provide a tracer signal with every precipitation event and are seasonally distributed. In order to follow the seasonal distribution of stable isotopes in the soil water and use this information for identifying hydrological processes and hydraulic properties, soil was sampled three times in three profiles, two on Krško polje aquifer in SE Slovenia and one on Ljubljansko polje in central Slovenia. Isotope composition of soil water was measured with the water-vapor-equilibration method. Based on the isotope composition of soil water integrative information about water flow and transport processes with time and depth below ground were assessed. Porewater isotopes were in similar range as precipitation for all three profiles.  Variable isotope ratios in the upper 60 cm for the different sampling times indicated dynamic water fluxes in this upper part of the vadose zone. Results also showed more evaporation at one sampling location, Brege. The information from stable isotopes will be of importance for further analyzing the water fluxes in the vadose zone of the study sties. 
This research was financed by the ARRS BIAT 20-21-32 and IAEA CRP 1.50.18 Multiple isotope fingerprints to identify sources and transport of agro-contaminants.  

How to cite: Zupanc, V., Glavan, M., Curk, M., Pečan, U., Stockinger, M., Kammerer, G., Vadibeler, D., and Stumpp, C.: Characterization of hydraulic properties in the upper vadose zone for two aquifers in Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2407, 2021.

Stable water isotopes of oxygen (d18O) are used as tracers to study soil pore water. One method to measure d18O of soil samples is the direct liquid-vapor equilibration (DLVE) method. In this method, test samples are stored in Ziploc bags and equilibrated for three days. After equilibration, the headspace gas is measured using laser spectrometry. The DLVE method requires minimum sample handling, enables direct isotopic measurements without the need of extracting the water, and is highly reliable and comparatively cheaper than other measurement methods. However, the influence of different soil textures and saturation levels on the δ18O isotope when using the DLVE method is not well understood yet. In this study, three different soil textures (sand, organic carbon rich silt and kaolinite) were oven-dried for three days at 105°C and saturated to different saturation levels (100%, 80%, 60% and 40%) in laboratory cylinders for a week. The samples were saturated using tap water of known isotopic value and stored in Ziploc bags for different amounts of time. The samples were analyzed after 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 days using cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS), and the isotopic ratios recorded after storage were compared with the isotopic measurements obtained before the sample equilibration. The resulting isotopic deviations were less than the CRDS measurement precision after one day of sample storage for sandy soil regardless of their saturation levels. Likewise, one day was also adequate for 100%, 80% and 40% saturated kaolinite, with 100% saturation allowing for up to seven days of sample storage with only small isotopic deviations (±0.43‰). Contrary to this, for organic-silty soil the required equilibration time depended on the saturation level. The findings from this laboratory-based analysis enhance the understanding of the impact of soil texture and saturation level on the DLVE method.

How to cite: Vadibeler, D., Stockinger, M., and Stumpp, C.: Effect of different soil textures and saturation levels on the equilibration time of oxygen isotopes using the direct liquid-vapor equilibration method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3012, 2021.

EGU21-8871 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Borehole equilibration 2.0 or how to chase tracer pulses in a forested ecosystem

Ruth-Kristina Magh, Nils Henriksson, Hyungwoo Lim, Reimo Lutter, Tomas Lundmark, and John D. Marshall

Identifying tree water sources has long been an issue since obtaining samples was labor intensive and lacked high time resolution because of the destructive sampling procedure. It was previously shown that the “borehole equilibrium method” (Marshall et al. 2020) allows in situ measurements of xylem sap isotopic composition. While the advantage in using this method is its ability to monitor isotopic composition of xylem continuously and rapidly with immediate data availability, disadvantages are the limited number of trees that can be observed and that the laser has to be present in the field. Here, we propose cheaper and more field-deployable elaboration of the method based on the same principle as to use for tracer pulse-chasing experiments in forested ecosystems.

We installed boreholes in tree stems and sealed them on both sites using brass fittings with a pierceable chlorobutyl septum. The water vapor inside the sealed borehole was assumed to reach isotopic equilibrium with the liquid water in the xylem due to diffusion within seconds and was sampled using gas-tight syringes. The 20ml sample was then injected in a dry air stream connected to a Picarro L2130-I cavity ring-down absorption spectrometer (CRDAS). Standards of known isotopic composition were injected the same way. The peaks, rather than plateaus, of isotopic ratios measured from these injections were weighted by the water vapor amount, giving results accurate enough to distinguish between xylem water of natural abundance and water enriched in deuterium (average SD for 2H 5.2‰ and 18O 1.9‰ for natural abundance samples). To test this method in the field, we labeled 1m2 of soil at different soil depths with 15.5 L of water enriched in 2HHO (δ2H +220000 ‰) in a Scots pine forest in northern Sweden. Trees within a 10m radius from the labeled center were monitored continuously, allowing daily measurements of up to 120 trees for six weeks. Depending on soil depth the uptake dynamics varied over time, with the peaks from the shallowest soil injections  occurring within two weeks, while for the deeper soil layers the contribution to transpiration lagged behind approx. four weeks, likely due to a combination of lower root density and reduced hydraulic conductivity at greater depth.  The strength of the peaks was correlated with distance from the labeled soil patch.

We were able to show that this method works to chase an artificially enriched water pulse through a natural forested ecosystem. At the same time, this adaptation allows the method to become even cheaper than its precursor as it requires much less tubing and fewer fittings. Lastly, we consider it more field-deployable because it does not require the CRDAS to be in the field.

How to cite: Magh, R.-K., Henriksson, N., Lim, H., Lutter, R., Lundmark, T., and Marshall, J. D.: Borehole equilibration 2.0 or how to chase tracer pulses in a forested ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8871, 2021.

EGU21-14274 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

Development of cryogenic extraction system for δ18O and δ2H measurement of water in soils and plants.

Nunzio Romano, Carolina Allocca, Luisa Stellato, Fabio Marzaioli, and Paolo Nasta

The stable isotope composition of water (δ18O and δ2H) represents a useful tool to distinguish among different water pools along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Using δ2H and δ18O as tracers helps gain a better understanding of plant root water uptake and dominant ecohydrological processes. To determine which pools of water are used for plant physiologic functions and returned to the atmosphere by transpiration, a common approach is to analyze the isotopic composition of water in both soil and plant. Cryogenic water extraction (CWE; Orlowski et al., 2016) is the most widely used laboratory-based technique to extract water from soil samples for isotopic analysis. However, recent studies have shown that the extraction conditions (time, temperature, and vacuum) and soil physical and chemical properties may affect the extracted soil-water isotope composition even significantly.

We have developed an efficient and cost-effective cryogenic vacuum equipment to extract water from soil or vegetation and this presentation aims at discussing some preliminary results. The equipment has been specifically designed to meet the following requirements: i) enable to quantify the accuracy of a CWE continuous flow extraction line, and ii) identify a specific extraction standard protocol for soil and vegetation samples. Two experiments have been carried out to evaluate the isotope fractionation induced by the system and how different operational parameters (i.e. times and temperature of extraction) can affect the results. Firstly, a known water isotopic ratio was processed by the vacuum system to determine the measurement accuracy and reproducibility by comparing pre- and post-processed water isotopic signatures. The likely causes of observed biases induced by sample processing are assessed and a relevant correction procedure is suggested. Subsequently, measurements were carried out on replicated samples taken from two differently-textured soils that, after being dried, were saturated in the laboratory up to different water content values with water of known isotopic composition. Also, plant samples were collected from plants grown in a greenhouse and irrigated with water of known isotopic composition.

Water from all samples was extracted by our CWE system and then analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer in Gas Bench mode for analyses and in temperature conversion elemental analysis (TC/EA) mode for. Preliminary results have quantified the isotope fractions on average of -1.6 ‰ for δ18O and 14.2 ‰ for δ2H. Normalization of stable isotopes from unknown samples according to observed fractionation has enabled the observed bias to become virtually zero, leading to a replicate reproducibility of δ18O and δ2H for soil water of 0.6 ‰ and 3 ‰, respectively. The analyses carried out up to now did not find statistical evidence that the soil types and soil-water contents may affect the extraction method and the accuracy of our protocol.

How to cite: Romano, N., Allocca, C., Stellato, L., Marzaioli, F., and Nasta, P.: Development of cryogenic extraction system for δ18O and δ2H measurement of water in soils and plants., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14274, 2021.

EGU21-9300 | vPICO presentations | HS10.6

A simple glasshouse experiment to test the isotopic fractionation in olive trees

Anam Amin, Giulia Zuecco, Chiara Marchina, Michael Engel, Daniele Penna, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, and Marco Borga

Plant transpiration is a main component of the global water cycle and plays a key role in regulating ecohydrological process. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen are often used for the identification and quantification of plant water sources in ecohydrology. However, the isotopic tracing technique assumes that the isotopic signal in the water taken up by the plants remains unaltered during uptake at the soil-roots interface and transport to the distal twigs, i.e., isotopic fractionation does not occur during the water uptake and along the transport pathway. Nevertheless, recent studies showed that isotopic fractionation can occur under different environmental conditions. In this study, we performed a simple experiment with two olive (Olea europaea) trees utilizing labelled water to test isotopic fractionation of plant water during uptake and transport within the plants under controlled conditions. In addition, we performed the cryogenic vacuum distillation in two different laboratories to examine any possible effects of the extraction system on the isotopic composition of plant water extracts.

We set up the olive trees in pots inside a glasshouse and measured sap flow rates with Granier thermal dissipation probe, and shallow soil moisture by using a portable soil moisture probe. Air temperature, global solar radiation, and relative humidity were measured by a weather station installed inside the glasshouse nearby the olive trees. We irrigated the two plants with water of known isotopic composition and sampled the twigs, wood cores, roots, and soils at different depths (0-5, 5-15, and 15-25 cm). We extracted plant and soil waters by means of cryogenic vacuum distillation performed in two different laboratories.

Our results showed that the plant water samples reflected the isotopic signature of labelled water and mobile soil water, suggesting no isotopic fractionation during water transport. No significant differences were detected for twigs and wood cores extracted from distinct sections of the tree. However, only significant differences were obtained between plant tissue water (twigs, cores) and cryogenically-extracted deep soil water (i.e., >15 cm depths). Furthermore, we found no significant effects of the two cryogenic extraction systems on the isotopic composition of water extracts. Our results indicate that isotopic fractionation might not occur during root water uptake and transport processes in olive trees, at least under the specified experimental conditions, validating the conventional isotope-tracing approach. Further work both in the field and under controlled conditions, and on different plant species, is needed to check for this consistency, as well as testing other plant water extraction methods.

 

Keywords: olive tree; stable isotope analysis; plant water; cryogenic vacuum distillation; fractionation; labelled water.

How to cite: Amin, A., Zuecco, G., Marchina, C., Engel, M., Penna, D., McDonnell, J. J., and Borga, M.: A simple glasshouse experiment to test the isotopic fractionation in olive trees, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9300, 2021.

HS10.8 – Peatland hydrology

EGU21-2200 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8 | Highlight

A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme

Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, and Noah Smith

Representing peatlands in global Earth System Models (ESMs) is a major challenge, but a crucial one since peatlands represent a significant component of the global carbon cycle.

Here we present the first ESM implementation of peat accumulation and degradation that integrates both organic and mineral soils in a single formulation, implemented in JULES - the land-surface component of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). In this scheme, the soil column is able to expand with the addition of new organic material and to subside as this material decomposes, with variable organic layer thickness, which means that peat can appear and disappear within the landscape without a need for a prescribed peatland fraction.

Thermal and hydraulic characteristics of the soil are dynamically updated depending on the organic matter content and its level of decomposition, using relationships derived from observations. This scheme captures important feedbacks within the soil, such as the way that peatlands - once formed - can be self-sustaining even under conditions where they would not form today. It also captures the loss of carbon and soil structure when peatlands are drained. We demonstrate this behaviour in the model.

This provides a new approach for improving the simulation of organic and peatland soils, and associated carbon-cycle feedbacks in ESMs.

The key remaining challenges for simulating global peatlands are to realistically distribute water around the landscape, in order to represent topographically-controlled peatlands, and to develop appropriate peatland vegetation types.

How to cite: Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Gallego-Sala, A., and Smith, N.: A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2200, 2021.

EGU21-759 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

General considerations for modeling water table dynamics in peatlands

Alex Cobb and Charles Harvey

A basic and universal characteristic of peatlands is that the water table frequently rises near the surface of the soil profile. Surface peat is naturally loose and open-structured, and often has microtopographic features; the water table frequently rises above the level of local depressions. Therefore, water table fluctuations in peatlands cause rapid changes in the permeability and effective porosity of the medium through which flow occurs. We use a simple model based on Boussinesq's equation to explore the challenges that arise from these basic and universal physical aspects of peatland hydrology. We show that simulation of water table fluctuations in peatlands requires precipitation data with a high temporal resolution, and careful attention to the time derivative for accuracy of the mean water tables and correct water balance for two reasons. First, large vertical gradients in specific yield can result in large mass balance errors analogous to errors from naive discretization of the Richards equation; a change of variables from water table elevation to water storage can eliminate these errors and also speed up calculations by allowing larger time steps. Second, large vertical gradients in permeability near the peat surface cause a strongly nonlinear response to precipitation, so that time-averaged precipitation data or neglect of diurnal cycles of evapotranspiration results in erroneously high water levels, and careful time stepping is required around rain storms.  Consideration of these features of peatland hydrology results in efficient hydrologic models that can be used to predict spatial and temporal patterns in greenhouse gas uptake and emissions in peatlands.

How to cite: Cobb, A. and Harvey, C.: General considerations for modeling water table dynamics in peatlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-759, 2021.

EGU21-9918 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

The quantification of water storage capacity of peatlands across different hydroclimatic settings using a simple rainfall event to water-table response ratio method

Marc-André Bourgault, Michel Bechtold, Joseph Holden, Antony Blundell, Ullrich Dettman, Michelle Garneau, Tim Howson, Sylvain Jutras, Bjørn Kløve, Marie Larocque, Hannu Marttila, Kathryn McKendrick-Smith, Meseret Menberu, Anna-Kaisa Ronkanen, Nigel Roulet, and Bärbel Tiemeyer

In wetlands, the water budget is traditionally quantified by measuring the hydrologic components including precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface water-groundwater inflows and outflows. However, the reliability of measurements is often questioned due to the difficulty of rigorously monitoring all components of the water budget. Quantifying the rainfall event to water table response ratio is an alternative approach with minimal need for data commonly collected in peatland studies. However, the method has been used only in a limited number of biophysical settings including different microforms, hydroclimatic and hydrogeological settings. The objectives of this study are to quantify the reactivity of the water table to precipitation for different pristine peatlands located in different hydroclimatic conditions and to provide quantitative assessments of water storage of as many peatlands as possible. To do so, site-specific hourly water table and precipitation measurements was collected from northern peatlands worldwide. In total, data from more than 30 sites were retrieved from 8 research groups. For all peatlands, water-table depths varied between 80 cm below the peat surface and 10 cm above the peat surface. The results highlight that the hydrology of all peatlands is characterized by a shift from an environment that can store water to an environment that contributes to rapid outflow, and this is a uniform feature across sites. However, for peatlands with the lowest water storage capacities, this shift occurs during relatively moderate rainfall events (40 mm) or successive small rainfall events. Blanket peat bog best embodied this type of hydrological response. For peatlands with the highest water storage capacity, this shift occurs following multiple moderate to large precipitation events (40 mm – 80 mm) and it is strongly enhanced by the shift from high to low evaporative periods. The peatlands with the highest storage capacity are raised bogs with deep water-table. These conditions are best observed in peatlands located in geographical settings with high evaporation rates. Among all the peatlands, maximum water storage capacity for given rainfall events was equal to ≈150 mm. These analyses also confirm that the water table rise caused by precipitation events contain sufficient information to constrain water storage variations around monitored wells peatlands for a wide array of biophysical settings.

How to cite: Bourgault, M.-A., Bechtold, M., Holden, J., Blundell, A., Dettman, U., Garneau, M., Howson, T., Jutras, S., Kløve, B., Larocque, M., Marttila, H., McKendrick-Smith, K., Menberu, M., Ronkanen, A.-K., Roulet, N., and Tiemeyer, B.: The quantification of water storage capacity of peatlands across different hydroclimatic settings using a simple rainfall event to water-table response ratio method, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9918, 2021.

EGU21-10938 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Long-term rewetting of fen peatlands alters the response of water tables to rainfall and temperature

Sate Ahmad, Haojie Liu, Shajratul Alam, Anke Günther, Gerald Jurasinski, and Bernd Lennartz

Fens belong to the most threatened ecosystems in Europe. Maintaining a high water table through rewetting is an effective measure to rehabilitate many of their ecosystem functions. However, the impact of meteorological factors such as relative humidity, precipitation and air temperature on water storage and its dynamics is still unclear especially for rewetted fens in the temperate regions. Here, we quantify the impact of meteorological factors on water table dynamics comparing a drained and a rewetted fen in North-East Germany, using multiple linear regression with data from continuous high-resolution (temporal) water level monitoring and weather stations. We found that a 1-degree rise in daily maximum air temperature causes a drop of about 4 mm in the water table in the drained and degraded fen but only a drop of around 2 mm at the rewetted site, mainly through evapotranspiration. Higher minimum relative humidity limits evapotranspiration and is, thus, negatively associated with water table elevation at both sites. Precipitation contributes to recharge, causing the water table to rise almost six times higher at the drained site than at the rewetted site. We attribute the differential impacts of meteorological factors on water table dynamics to (1) differences in vegetation, which acts as surface control and (2) differences in soil properties. We found that for the depths at which the groundwater fluctuates, the peat of the rewetted fen has a higher specific yield compared to the drained fen, causing the water table to rise or recede at smaller rates. A period of 20 years of rewetting was sufficient to form a new layer of organic matter with a substantial fraction of macropores providing water storage capacity and thereby changing water table response. Our study underlines the importance of long-term rewetting and meteorological factors for peatland restoration. Continuous monitoring of water table and vegetation development in rewetted fens is advisable to ensure long-term success, especially under climate change conditions.

The updated versions of the papers on which this abstract is based can be found at (1) https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.630469/abstract and (2) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720351007

How to cite: Ahmad, S., Liu, H., Alam, S., Günther, A., Jurasinski, G., and Lennartz, B.: Long-term rewetting of fen peatlands alters the response of water tables to rainfall and temperature, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10938, 2021.

EGU21-1302 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Characterization of nested water supplies in a mid latitude/altitude peatland using long-term monitoring data before and after restoration. The case study of the Frasne peatland (Jura Mountains, France)

Alexandre Lhosmot, Louis Collin, Geneviève Magnon, Marc Steinmann, Catherine Bertrand, Vanessa Stefani, Philippe Binet, Marie-Laure Toussaint, Anne Boetch, and Guillaume Bertrand

Peatland hydrology forms, together with vegetation cover and carbon dynamics, a sensitive interconnected three-pillar system, which furnishes essential ecosystem services from the local (specific biodiversity, interaction with the watershed) to the global scale (carbon and fresh water storage). The present study focuses on the hydrological function of the Frasne peatland, and especially investigates how restoration of water supplies can be used to mitigate climate change effects on peatland hydrology and sustainability.

In this perspective, the Forbonnet bog, belonging to the Frasne peatland complex (300 ha; French Jura Mountains; 46.826 N, 6.1754 E; 850 m a.s.l) is monitored in the framework of the French observatory of peatland (SNO Tourbières) since 2008. The site, restored in 2015 (European program "Life Tourbières"), is located in a wide karstifed syncline overlain by moraine deposits. Between 2009 and 2019, mean annual precipitation and air temperature were respectively 1618 mm and 7 °C.

In order to identify and model water supply and transfers at the ecosystem scale, this study combines a range of hydrological, geochemical and reservoir modeling approaches. This enabled us to propose a conceptual scheme of the hydrological functioning that implies a nested organization of 3 water origins:

(1) The superficial reservoir (acrotelm) featuring a low mineralization, has a fast (daily) reactivity to precipitation, suggesting a strong dependence to direct atmospheric inputs. In addition, the outlet discharge shows a complex relation with the water level of this layer, highlighting a threshold effect where the saturation degree of the acrotelm seems to be involved.

(2) Five years of outlet discharge and electrical conductivity (EC) monitoring highlight a seasonal pattern. During low flow periods (June-Oct.) EC is positively correlated with rainfall recharge of the previous winter (Nov.-May). Furthermore, the bog water budget is loss-making when only considering the topographical watershed. Considering the geological context, these elements argue for groundwater inflows from the surrounding karst aquifer likely occurring at the base of the bog, throughout the permeable or discontinuous moraine layers. Vertical EC profiles show that these inflows supply the mineralized water deep reservoir of the bog.

(3) The monitoring of the restoration effects (by backfilling of drainage channels) through panpipe piezometers suggests that lateral seepage from the neighboring wooded, more elevated and mature peatlands supplies a transitional peat reservoir.

Moreover, spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal EC variability argue for advective water transfers through the bog.

This work supports the interest in monitoring over the long-term (several and contrasted hydrological years) for constraining hydrological processes. The three water supplies delineated could have contrasted responses to climate change and then impact both biological and carbon cycles. This work also highlights the importance to integrate hydrological processes beyond the ecosystem scale, to consider climate change and anthropogenic pressure effects on the regional hydrology that probably interact with peatlands in mountainous environments. In this perspective, the current hydrological monitoring is nowadays combined with isotopic (δ18O and δ2H) evaluation to refine this conceptual scheme and quantify the contribution of the 3 identified water flow paths.

How to cite: Lhosmot, A., Collin, L., Magnon, G., Steinmann, M., Bertrand, C., Stefani, V., Binet, P., Toussaint, M.-L., Boetch, A., and Bertrand, G.: Characterization of nested water supplies in a mid latitude/altitude peatland using long-term monitoring data before and after restoration. The case study of the Frasne peatland (Jura Mountains, France), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1302, 2021.

EGU21-5238 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Effect of Macroporosity on Physical Property Estimates for Peat Soils

Miaorun Wang, Haojie Liu, and Bernd Lennartz

Hydrophysical soil properties play an important role in regulating the water balance of peatlands and are known to be a function of the status of peat degradation. The objective of this study was to revise multiple regression models (pedotransfer functions, PTFs) for the assessment of hydrophysical properties from readily available soil properties. We selected three study sites, each representing a different state of peat degradation (natural, degraded and extremely degraded). At each site, 72 undisturbed soil cores were collected. The saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), soil water retention curves, total porosity, macroporosity, bulk density (BD) and soil organic matter (SOM) content were determined for all sampling locations. The van Genuchten (VG) model parameters (θsαn) were optimized using the RETC software package. Macroporosity and the Ks were found to be highly correlated, but the obtained functions differ for differently degraded peatlands. The introduction of macroporosity into existing PTFs substantially improved the derivation of hydrophysical parameter values as compared to functions based on BD and SOM content alone. The obtained PTFs can be applied to a wide range of natural and degraded peat soils. We assume that the incorporation of macroposity helps to overcome effects possibly resulting from soil management. Our results suggest that the extra effort required to determine macroporosity is worth it, considering the quality of parameter estimates for hydraulic conductivity as well as the soil hydraulic VG model.

How to cite: Wang, M., Liu, H., and Lennartz, B.: Effect of Macroporosity on Physical Property Estimates for Peat Soils, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5238, 2021.

EGU21-10582 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Thermal UAS Imaging to Monitor Restored Peatlands

Lauri Ikkala, Hannu Marttila, Anna-Kaisa Ronkanen, Jari Ilmonen, Sakari Rehell, Timo Kumpula, and Björn Klöve

Globally peatlands are degrading due to drainage and intensified land use e.g. for forestry, agriculture and peat extraction. Peatland restoration can recover biodiversity of the threatened habitats, reestablish the natural hydrological role of the peatland as retaining water and nutrients and diminish greenhouse gas emissions.

Restoration monitoring for peatlands is urgent in order to reveal the peatland hydrological recovery and ecological succession after restoration, needs for corrective actions and to enable further method development. Restoration monitoring with conventional approaches is laborious, time-consuming and does not cover large areas. Visual evaluation is biased, and the traditional systematic methods give only focused information while conditions for most of the site remain hidden.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) imaging produces large coverage information on restoration success in high spatial resolution. Aerial perspective with superior resolution alone extends the monitoring aspect together with the photogrammetric high-precision digital elevation models (DEMs) allowed by the Structure from Motion (SfM) technology.

Additionally, external instruments such as thermal cameras attached in the drone allow revealing temperature anomalies and moisture patterns. We used thermal infrared (TIR) imaging to monitor changes at a boreal rewetted peatland site. The uncalibrated thermal data alone turned out to be useful showing near-surface flow routes recovered in restoration. We further applied a variety of processing methods for the data to explore their applicability on boreal peatlands. The results show the thermal UAS imaging to have great potential in monitoring the hydrological changes due to peatland restoration in high spatial resolution.

How to cite: Ikkala, L., Marttila, H., Ronkanen, A.-K., Ilmonen, J., Rehell, S., Kumpula, T., and Klöve, B.: Thermal UAS Imaging to Monitor Restored Peatlands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10582, 2021.

EGU21-4698 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Monitoring of water table dynamics in peatlands with OPTRAM: Towards globally applicable algorithms in Google Earth Engine using Landsat and Sentinel-2

Iuliia Burdun, Michel Bechtold, Viacheslav Komisarenko, Annalea Lohila, Elyn Humphreys, Ankur R. Desai, Mats B. Nilsson, Valentina Sagris, Ülo Mander, and Gabrielle De Lannoy

Fluctuations of water table depth (WTD) affect many processes in peatlands, such as vegetation development and emissions of greenhouse gases. Here, we present the OPtical TRApezoid Model (OPTRAM) as a new method for satellite-based monitoring of the temporal variation of WTD in peatlands. OPTRAM is based on the response of short-wave infrared reflectance to the vegetation water status. For five northern peatlands with long-term in-situ WTD records, and with diverse vegetation cover and hydrological regimes, we generate a suite of OPTRAM index time series using (a) different procedures to parametrise OPTRAM (peatland-specific manual vs. globally applicable automatic parametrisation in Google Earth Engine), and (b) different satellite input data (Landsat vs. Sentinel-2). The results based on the manual parametrisation of OPTRAM indicate a high correlation with in-situ WTD time-series for pixels with most suitable vegetation for OPTRAM application (mean Pearson correlation of 0.7 across sites), and we will present the performance differences when moving from a manual to an automatic procedure. Furthermore, for the overlap period of Landsat and Sentinel-2, which have different ranges and widths of short-wave infrared bands used for OPTRAM calculation, the impact of the satellite input data to OPTRAM will be analysed. Eventually, the challenge of merging different satellite missions in the derivation of OPTRAM time series will be explored as an important step towards a global application of OPTRAM for the monitoring of WTD dynamics in northern peatlands.

How to cite: Burdun, I., Bechtold, M., Komisarenko, V., Lohila, A., Humphreys, E., Desai, A. R., Nilsson, M. B., Sagris, V., Mander, Ü., and De Lannoy, G.: Monitoring of water table dynamics in peatlands with OPTRAM: Towards globally applicable algorithms in Google Earth Engine using Landsat and Sentinel-2, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4698, 2021.

EGU21-16196 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Characterization of Alpine peatlands based on remote sensing of vegetation and water content

Sonia Silvestri and Alessandra Borgia

Storing up to 70 kg of carbon per cubic meter, peatlands are among the most carbon-dense environments in the world. If in pristine conditions, peatlands support a number of ecosystem services as for example water retention and mitigation of droughts and floods, water purification, water availability to wildlife. Their preservation is one of the main goals of the EU policy and of other initiatives around the world.

Despite their importance, Alpine peatlands have been rarely studied and their presence is not even included in the EU maps, as for example the JRC Relative Cover of Peat Soils map, and only some sites are included in the Corine Land Cover map. The precise localization of peatland sites and the assessment of their extent is the first fundamental step for the implementation of adequate conservation policies. To this end, satellite remote sensing is the ideal instrument to provide adequate spatial resolution to detect and characterize Alpine peatlands at the regional scale. In this study, we use Sentinal-2 satellite data combined with 2m spatial resolution digital elevation model (from LiDAR data) to detect and quantify the extent of peatlands in the Trentino - Alto Adige region, an area of about 12,000 sq km located in the heart of the Italian Alpine region. Ground truth data include 71 peatlands that cover a total surface of more than 2,000 sq m. Field campaigns and lab analyses on some selected sites show that, on average, the sampled peatlands have depth of about 1m, Bulk Density of 0.128 g cm-3 and LOI of 63%, hence indicating that the organic carbon content by soil volume is high, being on average 0.04 g cm-3. Satellite data analysis allowed us to detect a large number of peatland sites with high accuracy, thus confirming the importance of Alpine peatlands as carbon stock sites for the region. Moreover, thanks to the correlation between two indices (NDVI and NDWI) we could characterize the water content of these sites, hence analyzing its seasonal variation and inferring possible future scenarios linked to climate change effects.

How to cite: Silvestri, S. and Borgia, A.: Characterization of Alpine peatlands based on remote sensing of vegetation and water content, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16196, 2021.

EGU21-6503 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Deriving SAR Soil Moisture Retrieval Algorithms and Soil Drainage Classification for Boreal Peatlands

Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Jeremy Graham, Andrew Poley, Dorthea Leisman, and Michael Battaglia

EGU21-9038 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

InSAR time series over rewetted bogs highlight spatially heterogeneous surface deformation

Verena Huber García, Janina Klatt, Martina Schlaipfer, Francesco De Zan, Ralf Ludwig, and Philip Marzahn

Peatlands represent the largest natural terrestrial carbon store and provide a multitude of ecosystem services. Many peatlands across the world have been intensively used for centuries either for peat extraction, agricultural usage or forestry. Drainage and removal of the peat layer have led to a disruption of respective ecosystem functioning caused by falling water levels, altered microbial activity and the shrinkage or depletion of the peat layer. Lately, some areas have been restored and brought back to a semi-natural state by prohibiting their use and closing drainage ditches to raise the water table. All these activities have resulted in very heterogeneous peatlands composed by severely degraded, less disturbed or successfully rehabilitated patches. The respective state of peatlands affects not only the hydrology and the typical shrinkage and swelling of peat known as mire breathing, it also determines the role of peatlands as carbon sink or source and is thus of high relevance for climate change mitigation. 

Through the application of interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series to several rewetted semi-natural pre-alpine bogs south of the city of Munich, Germany, it was possible to monitor the surface deformation of the peat layer caused by mire breathing for the period 2016-2020. An experimental InSAR data set was used where both the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (Ferretti et al. 2001) as well as the distributed scatterers technique (Ansari et al. 2018) were applied to satellite images from the Sentinel-1A and B platforms. The use of distributed scatterers allows to obtain a good coverage over semi-natural peatlands.

The seasonal height fluctuations peatlands are naturally subject to are clearly visible from the time series. The overall trend for the observation period shows a subsidence for the largest part of the test sites of up to 2 cm. Throughout the year 2018, a stronger negative trend, expectedly related to the extremely dry conditions in 2018 in this part of Europe, was observed, which caused the peat layer to dry out and to shrink. Furthermore, the combination of persistent and distributed scatterers captures spatial differences in the sign and intensity of the surface movement. Such deviations might be related to former uses, the degree of degradation and the implementation of restoration measures which have affected the hydrology, soil chemistry and vegetation cover of the bogs.

The findings show that peatlands respond to dry periods in a spatially heterogeneous manner. In the light of climate change, such InSAR time series can be used to monitor surface changes over long time frames to assess the long-term vulnerability of semi-natural peatlands and to indicate whether and which restoration measures prove successful.

The work presented here is part of the KliMoBay project, funded by the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

 

Ansari, H.; De Zan, F.; Bamler, R. (2018): Efficient Phase Estimation for Interferogram Stacks. In: IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing 56 (7). 4109-4125.

Ferretti, A.; Prati, C.; Rocca, F. (2001): Permanent scatterers in SAR interferometry. In: IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing 39 (1). 8-20.

How to cite: Huber García, V., Klatt, J., Schlaipfer, M., De Zan, F., Ludwig, R., and Marzahn, P.: InSAR time series over rewetted bogs highlight spatially heterogeneous surface deformation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9038, 2021.

EGU21-5252 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Impairing pipe-to-stream connectivity in a heavily degraded blanket bog: the results of a pipe outlet blocking trial

Taco Regensburg, Pippa Chapman, Michael Pilkington, David Chandler, Martin Evans, and Joseph Holden

As part of the EU-funded MoorLIFE2020 project, we assessed the impact of pipe blocking on the hydrological responses at pipe and stream level in a heavily degraded blanket bog in the Peak District of northern England. The study catchment, Upper North Grain, has a blanket peat cover up to four meters thick at places, with a branching network of deep gullies that incise into the bedrock. Earlier survey work has shown piping to be ubiquitous to the site, with 346 pipe outlets found and a mean frequency of 22.8 km-1 gully bank. Topographic position was an important control on the size and depth of pipe outlets. Pipe outlets on streambanks with signs of headward retreat (head pipes) were significantly larger and closer to the peat surface compared to pipe outlets that issued onto uniform streambank edges (edge pipes). In the context of peatland restoration, managers are keen to understand how these pipes contribute to hydrological responses of streams and associated export of fluvial carbon borne away in stream waters. However, little is known about pipe-to-stream connectivity and whether blocking methods used to impede flow in open ditch networks and gullies also work on pipe networks. Results will be presented on a before-after-control-intervention experiment in which we investigated: 1) whether impeding drainage from pipe networks alters the streamflow response at the catchment outlet; 2) how such intervention affects the hydrological functioning of the pipe network and the surrounding peat; 3) the scale of fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from a head pipe before and after pipe outlet blocking; and 4) whether pipe outlet blocking alters DOC and POC export in streams. Four blocking methods were trialed: peat-plugs, peat and stone, wooden planks, and plastic pilling. Results show that pipe outlet blocking led to new pipe outlets appearing or seepage around blocks within 90 days of blocking. Over a period of 17 months, four individual pipe outlets (2 head and 2 edge) produced 11.3 % of streamflow. Head pipes produced significantly larger peak flows and storm contributions to streamflow compared to edge pipes. A distinctive distance-decay effect of the water table around pipe outlets was observed, with deeper water tables around the outlets of edge pipes. To avoid further erosion in gully edge zones, we propose that future pipe blocking efforts prioritize increasing the residence time of pipe water by forming surface storage higher up in the pipe network. Further results will be presented from ongoing analyses of the effect of pipe blocking on the export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon from pipes and streams.

How to cite: Regensburg, T., Chapman, P., Pilkington, M., Chandler, D., Evans, M., and Holden, J.: Impairing pipe-to-stream connectivity in a heavily degraded blanket bog: the results of a pipe outlet blocking trial, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5252, 2021.

EGU21-13002 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8 | Highlight

Hydrological contrast between peatlands and forests: Implications on extreme flow in the boreal landscape 

Shirin Karimi, Jan Seibert, Eliza Maher Hasselquist, Kevin Bishop, Reinert Huseby Karlsen, and Hjalmar Laudon

 One of the most important benefits of natural and restored peatlands in boreal ecosystem is their critical role in storing water and consequently reducing flood peaks at the basin outlet. Compared to forests, peatlands have been suggested to have different hydrological behaviors altering the water transit time, flood peaks and runoff volumes, but the science underpinning such statements are largely lacking. This is problematic, as peatland restoration to regain landscape hydrological functioning has become high on the management agenda. However, if it is true that peatlands behave differently they can help mitigate the impacts of both extreme flooding and drought conditions by storing large volumes of water that will delay runoff and keeping streams and rivers flowing during low flow conditions. Accordingly, an accurate estimation of potential and available volume of catchment water storage with different physical characteristics would help us to choose the best peatland management strategies for reducing flood and drought risk in the future. However, the direct estimation of water storage requires an extensive amount of field observations. Hydrological models provide an indirect estimation of water storage and allow us to compare several catchments over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales.

 Here, we tested the role of peatlands by using data from 14 nested sub-catchments within a 68 km2 boreal forest landscape in Northern Sweden and then classified them into four different groups (forest on till, forest on sediment, peatlands, and mixed land cover) based on their landscape characteristics. We focused on the “dynamic storage” of catchment which directly controls the catchment streamflow generation. The simple bucket-type hydrological model, HBV-light, with a calibration period of 7 years (2010 to 2017) was deployed to simulate catchments storage dynamics. The calibration trials were repeated 100 times to assess the uncertainty of simulated results. The evaluation of model performance carried out using the coefficient of efficiency, ranged from 0.76 to 0.87. The relationship between storage characteristics and physical catchment properties such as soil depth, peatland percentage, elevation, and area were then analyzed using Spearman rank correlation.  

 The results of this study shows not only high differences in dynamic storage values among the sub-catchments but also the differences in locations of dynamic storage within the soil layers of peatland dominated catchments. The variations become even greater as we aggregate the storage amounts in  shorter temporal scales. The magnitude and variability of total storage change calculated using water balance method was much higher than the dynamic storage estimated by HBV, indicating that not all the water stored in the catchments were available for draining to the stream. We also found that the total amount of dynamic storage in peatland dominated catchments were higher than the amount stored in forest on till and mixed characteristics catchments. Moreover, in peatlands, the proportion of water stored in the upper zone reservoir was much higher than the estimated amounts in other catchments (Spearman rank correlation r=0.73, p < 0.05), which also shows the ability of HBV in capturing the hydrological function of peat soils.

How to cite: Karimi, S., Seibert, J., Maher Hasselquist, E., Bishop, K., Huseby Karlsen, R., and Laudon, H.: Hydrological contrast between peatlands and forests: Implications on extreme flow in the boreal landscape , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13002, 2021.

This study investigates potential effects of wetland restoration on storm flow dynamics in a mainly waterlogged low mountain range catchment located in SW-Germany. Here, wetland drainage networks are being sealed, aiming to achieve rising soil water tables and reestablished peat vegetation. With the help of hydrograph separation, multiple linear regression (MLR) and covariance analysis (ANCOVA), runoff-governing storm properties and sealing influences were analyzed. Results show, that not only natural storm parameters (precipitation sum, rainfall intensity, antecedent precipitation and temperature) exert influence on storm-runoff, but sealings also led to significantly altered processes: On the one hand, storm-runoff coefficients increased in sealed catchments, resulting most likely from more saturated soils, providing a smaller infiltration capacity. This is a desired effect of rewetting but coincidently a downside regarding storm flood prevention. On the other hand, lag times, meaning the timespan between rainfall occurrence and the hydrograph starting to rise, were noticeably prolonged. This effect can be potentially beneficial when it comes to storm flood prevention. Overall, statistical models including sealings showed more satisfactory results describing stormflow variance compared to models without sealings. Therefore, sealings do exert – statistically proven – an effect on storm runoff. The heterogeneity of the results, representing a dense gauge network spread over an investigation area of roughly 7.5 km² shows, that a high-resolution sampling, both spatially and temporally, is vital. That is since runoff processes in waterlogged low mountain range catchments are still poorly understood.

How to cite: Zemke, J.: Storm-runoff processes in a mainly waterlogged low mountain range catchment in the national park Hunsrück-Hochwald, SW-Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13389, 2021.

EGU21-12071 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Submarine groundwater discharge from coastal peatlands of northeast Germany

Erwin Don Racasa, Bernd Lennartz, Miriam Ibenthal, and Manon Janssen

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an important pathway for water and compounds within the land-ocean transition zone that can impact coastal environments and marine life. Although SGD research from sandy shorelines has rapidly advanced in recent years, there is very little understanding of coastal areas dominated by coastal peatlands, where the prevailing soils are characterized by a low hydraulic conductivity. Peatlands, the world’s most efficient carbon storage, could be a potential source of carbon, nutrients, and trace metals via the SGD pathway. The objective of this study was to determine the magnitude and location of SGD in a coastal peatland in northeast Germany. We wanted to understand the factors controlling terrestrial SGD from coastal peatlands through numerical modelling employing the HYDRUS-2D modeling package. Steady-state scenarios were simulated based on soil physical properties, hydraulic heads, and geological stratifications and structure. In the model set-up, emphasis was laid upon peat layers extending from land into the sea. Our results show that terrestrial SGD occurs at a net discharge volume flux of 0.0803 m3 m-1 d-1 with seepage rates of 1.05 cm d-1 near the shore and 0.16 cm d-1 at a second discharge region above the submerged peat layer. Calculated seepage rates compare to observations from other SGD sites in the Baltic Sea region and other wetland environments. The upscaled SGD estimate for the 3-km coastal peatland is 240 m3 d-1, which is in correspondence to earlier estimates from the same site. Analysis of the model output reveals that magnitude and location of terrestrial SGD are mainly driven by the magnitude of hydraulic gradient and the hydraulic conductivity of both peat and mineral soils. Additional influencing factors are peat anisotropy, thickness of aquifer sands and peat layers, and peat elevation. Submerged peat layers extending into the sea can restrict SGD flow in deeper discharge regions but may be less critical in terms of volume flux as most SGD occurs near the shoreline. We conclude that coastal peatlands could be an essential source of carbon, nutrients, and other compounds via SGD and may influence local geochemistry budgets and marine ecosystems.

How to cite: Racasa, E. D., Lennartz, B., Ibenthal, M., and Janssen, M.: Submarine groundwater discharge from coastal peatlands of northeast Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12071, 2021.

EGU21-2684 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Ecological Impact of Plantation Forestry on Blanket Bog on a Low Order Stream

Raymond Flynn, Cormac McConigley, Gary O'Connell, Francis Mackin, and Florence Renou Wilson

Blanket peat directly underlies between 11% and 13% of Ireland, with catchments containing more than 10% blanket bog coverage hosting the majority of Water Framework Directive High Status sites. Since 1998 approximately 40% of these sites have experienced a decline in status, with catchments having peat coverage greater than 40% experiencing disproportionate impacts. Declines in status have typically been accompanied by anthropogenic activities that have affected bog hydrology; these include planting / maturing of plantation forestry on deep peat (> 1 metre thick). Although our understanding of mechanisms driving aquatic ecosystem degradation in these areas immediately after planting and following felling has improved considerably in recent years, the impact of mature closed canopy forestry on runoff remains less well defined. Moreover, where research has been carried out, it has focused on sampling conditions during high (quick) flow, while base flow conditions have received less attention.

Comparison of runoff quality, in a stream draining a relatively intact blanket bog-covered catchment, with conditions further downstream, after it had flowed through a mature Sitka Spruce (P.sitchesnsis) plantation on deep peat, aimed to better characterise the impact of the forestry on the stream’s ecology. The study area selected for investigation receives approximately 1600 mm/yr of precipitation, occurring throughout the year (259 days with >0.2mm precipitation). Pairwise comparisons of runoff quality between areas draining open bog land and afforested areas further downstream failed to detect significant differences during high flow events. By contrast samples collected under drier conditions proved significantly more mineralised downstream, with water containing significantly higher levels of Calcium and Magnesium at the afforested area sampling point. Similarly, visual observations in forest drains feeding the stream revealed the presence of tufa mounds, which had developed following planting, and zones of focused iron oxyhydroxide-bearing groundwater upwelling; these features proved absent upstream of the forestry.

Screening for biotic status at the outlets of blanket bog and forested catchments, using the Irish biological quality rating system (Q-scores), suggested that the upstream sampling point was indicative of Good status (Q4), whilst the findings at the downstream forested site were more indicative of High status (Q4-5).   However, more detailed analysis of the species sampled suggested that although the sampling point in the forested area (downstream monitoring point) had higher biodiversity and as such allowed for the improvement in Q-score, it had slightly lower species density through lower counts of certain species. This is consistent with findings elsewhere which have highlighted the capacity of aqueous iron oxyhydroxides to detrimentally impact sensitive species, such as freshwater pearl mussel (M. margaritifera). Study results provide further evidence of the capacity of plantation forestry to impact on the aquatic ecology of low order streams, while further highlighting the need for alternative ecological metrics when investigating the impacts from human activity on lower order streams draining blanket bog.

How to cite: Flynn, R., McConigley, C., O'Connell, G., Mackin, F., and Renou Wilson, F.: Ecological Impact of Plantation Forestry on Blanket Bog on a Low Order Stream, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2684, 2021.

EGU21-5744 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Nordic Bioeconomic Pathways - catchment scale water quality impacts of various scenarios and projections 

Joy Bhattacharjee, Hannu Marttila, Artti Juutinen, Anne Tolvanen, Arto Haara, Jouni Karhu, and Björn Klöve

The development, the alternative pathways for use of bioresources, can lead to plausible stressors in the future on forestry dominated catchments. It is needed to analyse the impact of regional future projections on different land system management (LSM) attributes. The catchment scale projections are downscaled from Nordic Bioeconomic Pathways (NBPs), the subsets of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). As a case study, the Simojoki catchment (3160 km2) in northern Finland has been considered where drained peatlands and forests dominate (53%) in the catchment. We integrated stakeholder-driven input, Finnish forest inventory model pathways (MELA) and hydrological catchment model (SWAT) to explore the future consequences of forest management practices for different NBP scenarios. We calibrated and validated water quality parameters in SWAT for the Simojoki catchment. Then, based on the output of MELA model of LSM attributes including stand management, catchment management strategy and fertilizer use, we used NBP scenario projections in SWAT model. We also included stakeholders’ evaluations of biomass removal at the time of harvesting at the Simojoki catchment. Additionally, climate imposing emission scenarios have been integrated into SWAT model to analyse longer perception of climate change (CC). The final outcomes of the proposed scenarios (NBP and/or CC) will portray the probable impacts on each LSM attribute in the Simojoki catchment, to adapt to the future forest management consequences.

How to cite: Bhattacharjee, J., Marttila, H., Juutinen, A., Tolvanen, A., Haara, A., Karhu, J., and Klöve, B.: Nordic Bioeconomic Pathways - catchment scale water quality impacts of various scenarios and projections , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5744, 2021.

EGU21-15719 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Quantifying fluvial carbon losses from lowland peatland ecosystems across a drainage-impact spectrum 

Peter Cox, Laurence Gill, Shane Regan, and Matthew Saunders

The export of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) and evasion of carbon dioxide (CO2) from inland waters is increasingly being recognized as a key part of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, with recent global estimates suggesting that the magnitude of the aquatic CO2 conduit is equivalent to global Net Ecosystem Productivity (2.0 Gt C yr-1; Tranvik et al., 2009). However, a major weakness in the carbon balance estimation of terrestrial ecosystems, such as peatlands, is the poor quantification of DOC and CO2 evasion fluxes associated with drainage waters. This has implications for conservation, land-use management and climate change mitigation. Whilst intact peatland systems typically sequester carbon, drainage reverts peatlands to being C sources due, primarily, to the degradation of organic peat soil. This study examines the export of C in fluvial pathways from relatively intact catchments to those that are heavily drained, and also from peatland sites undergoing restoration works. This research is being carried out parallel other linked studies that are quantifying the carbon gaseous emissions from directly from the different bogs in order to determine the comparative net carbon budgets.

This study will focus on three raised bog sites in the midlands of Ireland: one in near natural condition (Clara bog), one significantly drained and degraded due to peat extraction (Garryduff) and one undergoing rehabilitation following many years of peat extraction (Cavemount). Flumes and sondes, with fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), temperature/conductivity and turbidity sensors, have been installed on the sites. The fDOM measurements will be correlated to grab samples taken every two weeks to give half hour proxy measurements for DOC.

Preliminary results suggest that DOC flux from the heavily drained and mined peatland site is some 295 times higher than that from the catchment with minimal interference. In addition to this, drainage waters are super-saturated in CO2 and rapidly evades back to the atmosphere resulting in an additional C loss. Thus, C losses in the drainage systems of peatland catchment areas are significantly under-reported and a significant source of C in countries with significant peat land cover such as Ireland. This research is thereby addressing the magnitude of C losses in fluvial pathways, the associated effects on ecosystem biodiversity and the effectiveness of restoration activities on mitigating against net C loss in degraded systems.

How to cite: Cox, P., Gill, L., Regan, S., and Saunders, M.: Quantifying fluvial carbon losses from lowland peatland ecosystems across a drainage-impact spectrum , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15719, 2021.

EGU21-11942 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

The impacts of peat slides on upland blanket peatland hydrology, ecology and soil structure. A paired catchment approach. 

Rob Halpin, Mary Bourke, Mike Long, and Andrew Trafford

Rainfall-induced landslides are difficult to forecast and often evolve into highly destructive flows, as such, they are one of the most dangerous natural hazards globally. While our understanding of peatland hydrology has improved greatly in the past two decades, there has been less focus on the response of peat hydrology following perturbations such as wildfires and landslides.  Here we report on a new paired catchment experiment in Ireland. Our focus is to quantify the hydrological changes following peat landslides and further, to establish the short-term and longer-term impacts on local peatland hydrology, ecology and recovery.

The two paired sites are located in Co. Leitrim, Ireland, in two adjacent, small upland blanket bog catchments. The first peat catchment (0.2km2) is an area of a recent (June 2020) slope failure. According to preliminary estimates ~178,000 – 188,000 tonnes of peat were transported downstream during the peat slide event, resulting in a large landslide scar section (~0.059 km2) in a special area of conservation [SAC]. Preliminary impacts are assessed to include: habitat loss, decreased slope stability, impacts on hydrology and water quality, as well as increased local erosion.

This catchment is paired with an adjacent upland blanket peat catchment (0.11 km2) which is deemed to have been under the same anthropogenic pressures (grazing, upslope forestry plantation).

A hydrometric suite, including weather station, piezometers, and water level recorders to evaluate the surface and subsurface hydrology has been installed at both sites. In addition, we are monitoring the response of landslide deposits (e.g. rafted peat, some with still-standing sika spruce), ecology, soil structure, permeability and shear strength in both catchments.

Here we will report on the initial results of our monitoring.

How to cite: Halpin, R., Bourke, M., Long, M., and Trafford, A.: The impacts of peat slides on upland blanket peatland hydrology, ecology and soil structure. A paired catchment approach. , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11942, 2021.

EGU21-306 | vPICO presentations | HS10.8

Quantifying the contribution of wetlands drying to aerosol generation across Iran

Majid Bayati, Nooshdokht Bayat-Afshary, and Mohammad Danesh-Yazdi

Wetlands are accounted as important providers of ecosystem services, which yield several functionalities such as the support of biodiversity, flood control, soil stabilization to reduce dust generation, natural treatment of surface waters, groundwater replenishment, climate regulation and economic benefits. Over the past decades, the impacts of anthropogenic manipulations amplified by climatic changes have threatened both the quantity and quality of wetlands, worldwide. A continuous monitoring of wetlands is thus necessary to protect them from further destruction, as well as to devise and assess the success of any rehabilitation plans. The conventional methods of water body monitoring chiefly include field surveying, which is time consuming, costly, and limited in extent. Alternatively, remotely sensed data have facilitated a much less expensive and more extensive monitoring of water bodies over a wide range of spatiotemporal resolutions. In this study, we implemented a learning-based classification framework fed by remote sensing data to evaluate the historical trends of the most important wetlands across Iran using the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. To this end, we used Landsat imagery between 2000 and 2020 to extract the water body of wetlands in dry seasons to consider the most critical condition. We also examined different spectral indices to identify the best combination giving the largest classification accuracy for each wetland, separately, based on their distinct conditions of water depth and vegetation cover. We then quantified the contribution of wetlands drying to the generation of dust storms via a frequency-intensity index given the annual number of dusty days and the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) provided by MODIS. According to the results, the majority of the studied wetlands show significant descending trends with the average loss of 31% in surface area. The aerosol analysis also witnesses the expansion of dust generation sources around most of the retreated wetlands, particularly in those years when the wetlands areas were smaller than the long-term average. The above observations point out a potential threat for the agricultural activities and highlight serious consequences for the health of nearby urban and rural residents.

Keywords: Wetland, Dust Storm, Remote Sensing, Environmental Monitoring, Ecosystem Protection

How to cite: Bayati, M., Bayat-Afshary, N., and Danesh-Yazdi, M.: Quantifying the contribution of wetlands drying to aerosol generation across Iran, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-306, 2021.

HS10.9 – Groundwater-surface water interactions: physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes

EGU21-16075 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9 | Highlight

Residence Time in Hyporheic Bioactive Layers Explains Nutrient Uptake in Streams

Eugènia Martí, Angang Li, Susana Bernal, Brady Kohler, Steven A. Thomas, and Aaron I. Packman

Human activities negatively impact water quality by supplying excessive nutrients to streams. To investigate the capacity of streams to take up nutrients from the water column, we usually add nutrients to stream reaches, calculate the fraction of added nutrients that is taken up, and identify the environmental conditions controlling nutrient uptake. A common idea is that nutrient uptake increases with increasing water residence time because of increased contact time between solutes and organisms. Yet, water residence time only partially explains the temporal and spatial variability of nutrient uptake, and the reasons behind this variability are still not well understood. In this talk I’ll present a study which shows that good characterization of spatial heterogeneity of surface-subsurface flow paths and bioactive hot spots within streams is essential to understanding the mechanisms of in-stream nutrient uptake. The basis of this study arises from the use and interpretation of nutrient uptake results from the Tracer Additions for Spiraling Curve Characterization (TASCC) method. This model has been rapidly adopted to interpret in-stream nutrient spiraling metrics (e.g, nutrient uptake) over a range of concentrations from breakthrough curves (BTCs) obtained during pulse solute injection experiments. TASCC analyses often identify hysteresis in the relationship between spiraling metrics and concentration as nutrient concentration in BTCs rises and falls. The mechanisms behind these hysteresis patterns have yet to be determined. We hypothesized that difference in the time a solute is exposed to bioactive environments (i.e., biophysical opportunity) between the rising and falling limbs of BTCs causes hysteresis in TASCCs. We tested this hypothesis using nitrate empirical data from a solute addition combined with a process-based particle-tracking model representing travel times and transformations along each flow path in the water column and hyporheic zone, from which the bioactive zone comprised only a thin superficial layer. In-stream nitrate uptake was controlled by hyporheic exchange and the cumulative time nitrate spend in the bioactive layer. This bioactive residence time generally increased from the rising to the falling limb of the BTC, systematically generating hysteresis in the TASCC curves. Hysteresis decreased when nutrient uptake primarily occurred in the water column compared to the hyporheic zone, and with increasing the distance between the injection and sampling points. Hysteresis increased with the depth of the hyporheic bioactive layer. Our results indicate that the organisms responsible for nutrient uptake are confined within a thin layer in the stream sediments and that the bioactive residence time at the surface-subsurface water interface is important for nutrient uptake. I will end the talk illustrating how these findings can have important implications for in-stream nutrient uptake within the context of restoration practices addressed to modify the hydro-morphological characteristics of stream channels.

How to cite: Martí, E., Li, A., Bernal, S., Kohler, B., Thomas, S. A., and Packman, A. I.: Residence Time in Hyporheic Bioactive Layers Explains Nutrient Uptake in Streams, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16075, 2021.

EGU21-5058 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Controls of nitrogen cycling under gaining and losing conditions in a first order agricultural stream

Oscar Jimenez-Fernandez, Karsten Osenbrück, Marc Schwientek, Kay Knöller, and Jan Fleckenstein

Low order streams drain a big proportion of river catchments. They are not only fed by groundwater, but may also lose water to their connected aquifers and, in turn, can contribute to a substantial fraction of groundwater recharge. In such cases, these streams are typically characterized by the coexistence of gaining and losing stream reaches. Along the bidirectional exchange flow paths large biogeochemical gradients can evolve so that the exchange zones can function as hotspots for biogeochemical processes (such as the important (de)nitrification processes in croplands), which can substantially change under these two conditions. An agricultural first order stream (Schönbrunnen) in south-western Germany was equipped with stream gauging stations and piezometers were installed in the adjacent shallow aquifer, in order to find out how these biogeochemical processes change under losing versus gaining conditions. Hydrological and hydrochemical variables within the immediate vicinity of the stream, as well as stable nitrogen isotopes have been monitored between August 2017 and May 2020 to spatially and temporally identify the controls of nitrogen cycling dynamics in the Schönbrunnen.

Gaining and losing conditions at the Schönbrunnen were determined by salt tracer experiments and the flow direction (upwelling groundwater or downwelling streamwater) of the exchanging fluxes was determined based on hydraulic head contour maps.

Hydrochemical data suggests that nitrate reduction occurs within the first 20 cm of the streambed in the losing reaches. In these reaches, isotopic data depicts that nitrate is reduced along the flow path between stream and groundwater. Ammonium and organic electron donors (DOC) were found at greater depths in these reaches. By contrast, increasing nitrite and nitrate concentrations were observed also along the last 20 cm of the upwelling flow paths (gaining reaches). In summary, assuming that the transition zone between groundwater and streams is only a hotspot for denitrification might not always be true, as our field data suggests that redox conditions in the streambed, and in turn, the resulting biogeochemical processes differed substantially between losing and gaining reaches.

How to cite: Jimenez-Fernandez, O., Osenbrück, K., Schwientek, M., Knöller, K., and Fleckenstein, J.: Controls of nitrogen cycling under gaining and losing conditions in a first order agricultural stream, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5058, 2021.

EGU21-3214 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Spatial decoupling of in-stream nitrogen cycling observed in an open air stream mesocosm.

Patricia Gallo Tavera and Tobias Schuetz

Human wastewater emissions can cause amongst other impacts a nutrient surplus in the connected river systems. Nutrient uptake in the river system is driven by the interaction of hydraulic, ecological, and biogeochemical conditions and processes. Hence, information about these complex interactions would allow better predicting the metabolism of fluvial environments. 

Within this study, we attempt to quantify in-stream nitrogen transformation processes with regard to hydraulic system characteristics as well as ecological characteristics such as vegetation cover, water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentrations and solar radiation. From 07 - 09/2019, four nutrient-addition-experiments were carried out in a continuous flow open air stream-mesocosm, comprising a 32.5 m highly aerated stream section (rifle) with a mean slope of 23 %, where low water levels and fast flow velocities characterize the hydraulic boundary conditions leading into a 9 m³ slowly flowing pool section (pool) with a mean depth of about 0.3 m and a spur dike increasing the residence time. The circulation of the system is driven by an electrical pumping system at the downstream end of the pool covering a flow range of 1 - 3.5 l/s. Floating algae and saturated oxygen conditions characterize the rifle section while the pool section is partly vegetated by algae, phragmites, typha and others and shows diurnal cycles of dissolved oxygen concentrations remaining most of the time below the oxygen saturation concentration. The system as a whole is decoupled from the underground with a tarp that is covered with a gravel-layer of about 3 - 8 cm depth.  Additionally, the ground of the pool section is covered by an organic litter layer of about 5 cm depth. Depending on the flow rates, the residence time in the rifle section varies between 5 - 15 min while the residence time in the pool changes from 25 – 75 min, accordingly. After nutrient-additions (Ammonium chloride and Monobasic potassium phosphate) at 10:00 water samples were taken at the downstream end of both sub-systems, with an increasing frequency of 30 min to 3 hours for the next five days. Interpolating the outlet concentrations of each system as input concentrations for the next system continuous changes in ammonium, nitrate and phosphate concentrations were identified for each system separately.

The results show that the combined ecosystems promote different types of reactions and processes in different parts of the system. The rifle induced highly aerated oxic conditions, promoting biological oxidation of ammonium consistently. On the other hand, the pool section produced limited oxic environments and longer residence times where denitrification occured, reaching the highest rates when the vegetation cover increased. Throughout the complete experimental period, phosphate transformation presented a stable behavior regardless of the environmental conditions. Therefore, spatial decoupling allowed us to  demonstrate that in-stream nitrogen cycling depends on the enduring variation and combination of local ecological and hydrological factors which occur in natural streams frequently.

How to cite: Gallo Tavera, P. and Schuetz, T.: Spatial decoupling of in-stream nitrogen cycling observed in an open air stream mesocosm., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3214, 2021.

The hyporheic interstitial as interface between surface water and groundwater offers a unique environment for contaminant attenuation and nutrient cycling, with steep chemical gradients and high retention times. Disentangling the effect of seasonal dynamics in exchange flux intensities and directions, we carried out 19 measurement campaigns where we sampled the continuum surface water - hyporheic zone - groundwater and the climatic and hydraulic boundary conditions of a whole year. Groundwater, surface water and hyporheic zone pore water from four depths were sampled at two vertical profiles in a second order stream about 150 m downstream a municipal waste water treatment plant effluent. Samples were analyzed for physical water parameters, major anions, ammonium, iron, manganese, NPOC and five selected pharmaceuticals (diclofenac, carbamazepine, caffeine, ethinylestradiol and clofibric acid). Surface water and groundwater levels as well as river discharge were measured to quantify the hydraulic boundary conditions. In addition, three vertical profiles, each equipped with five newly developed probes (Truebner AG) allowed a parallel monitoring of continuous bulk water temperatures and bulk electrical conductivity dynamics over two years. Furthermore, continuous hyporheic exchange flux intensities and exchange depths were calculated using analytical and numerical model schemes to allow distinguishing between small scale transport and attenuation processes.

The typical behavior of the redox sensitive metals and nutrients with depth is visible in each single profile snapshot. The picture is not as clear for the examined pharmaceuticals, because dilution has a major effect on the observable low concentrations. However, a clear seasonal variation driven by hydraulic and climatic processes can be observed for all substances. We were able to trace the organic pollutants down to the groundwater. Furthermore, the influence of hyporheic exchange flux intensities and directions on nutrient and contaminant depth profiles is shown.

How to cite: Schmitgen, L.-M. and Schuetz, T.: Seasonal variations in surface water groundwater interaction alter the relation of solute transport and biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2949, 2021.

EGU21-2152 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9 | Highlight

The relevance of groundwater-lake interactions for the rapid eutrophication of Lake Stechlin

Jörg Lewandowski, Franziska Mehler, Himanshu Bhardwaj, and Anna Jäger

Until recently, Lake Stechlin was one of the few oligotrophic lakes in North-Eastern Germany. Lake Stechlin is located in a nature reserve and its catchment is nearly completely forested, there is no agriculture and only one small settlement. About 10 years ago there were the first indications in the lake’s hypolimnion for changes of the trophy. In the last 3 years the lake is experiencing a rapid eutrophication and phosphorus (P) concentrations quadrupled compared to the concentrations 10 years ago. It is generally agreed that the origin of this P is internal P cycling which is a self-reinforcing process. However, the trigger that started the intense internal P cycling is still unknown. There are several different hypotheses and we focused on investigating the role of groundwater for the eutrophication of Lake Stechlin. Groundwater is a crucial component of the water balance of Lake Stechlin because there are basically no surface inflows and outflows, i.e. besides precipitation and evaporation, both lacustrine groundwater discharge and infiltration of lake water into the aquifer are the only other relevant terms of the water balance. Anthropogenic and climate change-induced alterations in groundwater inflow and outflow might have triggered the rapid eutrophication by different processes and we present a conceptual model of the involved processes. Main findings are (1) At a few locations we measured P concentration in the aquifer which were up to two orders of magnitude above the P concentrations of the lake water. (2) Due to several years of low precipitation in a row, the volume of lacustrine groundwater discharge decreased and with that the input of important P binding agents decreased, thus influencing the lake's internal P cycling. (3) Warmer average annual temperatures increase evaporation and simultaneously lead to a concentration of phosphorus in the lake. Local reversals of groundwater flow directions could also prevent lake water and with it P from leaving the lake. Thus, groundwater might be an important factor for the degradation of Lake Stechlin.

How to cite: Lewandowski, J., Mehler, F., Bhardwaj, H., and Jäger, A.: The relevance of groundwater-lake interactions for the rapid eutrophication of Lake Stechlin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2152, 2021.

EGU21-1845 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9 | Highlight

Molecular insights into the unique degradation trajectory of natural dissolved organic matter from surface to groundwater

Liza McDonough, Megan Behnke, Robert Spencer, Christopher Marjo, Martin Andersen, Karina Meredith, Helen Rutlidge, Phetdala Oudone, Denis O'Carroll, Amy McKenna, and Andy Baker

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) comprises a large and complex range of molecules with varying mass, elemental arrangements, conformation, and polarity. These diverse molecules interact with the environment resulting in changes to their molecular character and reactivity over time. Significant advances in our understanding of the molecular character of reactive and recalcitrant DOM have been made throughout the past decade, largely due to the development of ultra-high resolution techniques such as Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). This understanding, however, is almost entirely based on surface water environments. Here, we investigate how the molecular properties of DOM change due to reactions occurring in a groundwater environment over time. We use FT-ICR MS combined with liquid chromatography organic carbon detection (LC-OCD), fluorescence and radiocarbon (14C) dissolved organic carbon (DOC) for a range of groundwater DOM samples, including the oldest DOC reported from a site which is not impacted by sedimentary organic carbon inputs (25,310 ± 600 years BP). Our results indicate that polarity and nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC) play a major role in the reactivity of groundwater DOM, with a preferential removal of hydrophilic, high oxygen to carbon (O/C) ratio molecules over time (rs = 0.91, p = 2.4 x 10-6). We also note an increase in likely bio-produced molecules containing low numbers of O atoms in deep methanogenic groundwater environments. These molecular formulae appear to accumulate due to the prolonged anoxic conditions which would not be experienced by surface water DOM. The decline in NOSC with increasing average bulk groundwater DOC age contrasts with findings from marine environments where NOSC has been reported to increase over time. Furthermore, the proportion of specific molecular formulae which are stable in marine waters, decline in groundwater as 14CDOC decreases (rs = 0.68, p = 6.9 x 10-3) suggesting that current indicators of DOM degradation state derived from marine environments are not applicable to groundwater environments. Our research shows that the molecular character of reactive DOM in groundwater differs from that of surface water due to exposure to different environments and processing mechanisms, suggesting that it is the interaction between external environmental factors and intrinsic DOM molecular properties which control DOM recalcitrance.

How to cite: McDonough, L., Behnke, M., Spencer, R., Marjo, C., Andersen, M., Meredith, K., Rutlidge, H., Oudone, P., O'Carroll, D., McKenna, A., and Baker, A.: Molecular insights into the unique degradation trajectory of natural dissolved organic matter from surface to groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1845, 2021.

EGU21-12179 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Relating biomolecular data to denitrification rates in infiltrating river water – insights from enzyme-based reactive transport modelling

Anna Störiko, Holger Pagel, Adrian Mellage, and Olaf A. Cirpka

Biomolecular quantities like gene, transcript or enzyme concentrations related to a specific reaction promise to provide information about the turnover of nutrients or contaminants in the environment. Particularly transcript-to-gene ratios have been suggested to provide a measure for reaction rates but a relationship with rates currently lacks validation.
We applied an enzyme-based reactive transport model for denitrification and aerobic respiration at the river-groundwater interface to simulate the temporal and spatial patterns of transcripts, enzymes and biomass under diurnal dissolved oxygen fluctuations.
Our analysis showed that transcript concentrations of denitrification genes exhibit considerable diurnal fluctuations, whereas enzyme concentrations and biomass are stable over time. The daily fluctuations in denitrification rates yielded a poor correlation between rates and transcript and enzyme concentrations. Daily averaged reaction rates, however, show a close-to-linear relationship with enzyme concentrations and mean transcript concentrations.
Our findings suggest that, under dynamic environmental conditions, single-event sampling may result in the misinterpretation of biomelucular quantities as these relate to reaction rates. A better representation of rates can be achieved via sampling that captures the temporal variability of a particular system.

How to cite: Störiko, A., Pagel, H., Mellage, A., and Cirpka, O. A.: Relating biomolecular data to denitrification rates in infiltrating river water – insights from enzyme-based reactive transport modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12179, 2021.

EGU21-2760 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Reaction rates in the hyporheic zone explained by the lamellar theory of mixing

Gauthier Rousseau, Tanguy Le Borgne, and Joris Heyman

At the interface between aquifers and rivers, hyporheic zones are shallow sediment layers where surface and subsurface waters mix and react. In these zones, the dynamic of solute transport and mixing is a crucial and limiting component for many biogeochemical reactive processes (arsenic and nitrates degradation for instance). In particular, the understanding of the consequence of flow path heterogeneity on solute mixing and reactivity is key to develop physically-based upscaled models of the hyporheic function. By simulating the evolution of reacting fronts under simple 2D and 3D heterogeneous hyporheic flows created by bed superficial pressure gradients, we show that incomplete mixing of reacting solutes systematically precludes the use of macro-dispersion models as upscaled models of the hyporheic function, both in steady and unsteady flow conditions.
Based on these simulations, we propose an alternative theoretical framework, based on the concept of solute lamellae stretched by flow velocity gradients, to correctly upscale local reaction rates at the reach and basin scale. Finally, we compare our numerical and theoretical results to reacting fronts in a laboratory scale hyporheic mixing experiment.

How to cite: Rousseau, G., Le Borgne, T., and Heyman, J.: Reaction rates in the hyporheic zone explained by the lamellar theory of mixing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2760, 2021.

EGU21-843 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

A diffusive description of Vertical Mixing in the Benthic Biolayer.

Ahmed Monofy, Fulvio Boano, Stanley B. Grant, and Megan A. Rippy

In-stream environments, many biogeochemical processes occur in the benthic biolayer, i.e., within sediments at a very shallow depth close to the sediment-water interface (SWI). These processes are important for stream ecology and the overall environment.

Here, a 1D diffusive model is used to analyze the vertical exchange of solutes through the SWI and in the benthic biolayer. The model is applied to an extensive set of previously published laboratory experiments of solute exchange with different bed morphologies: flatbeds, dunes, and alternate bars. Although these different bed features induce mixing that is controlled by different physical processes at the SWI, overall mixing within the sediment is well represented by a parsimonious diffusive model, provided that the diffusivity profile declines exponentially with sediment depth.

For all morphology types, mixing is better simulated by an exponential diffusivity model than a constant diffusivity approach. Two parameters define the exponential diffusivity model; the effective diffusivity at the SWI, and a depth scale over which the exponential profile decays. Using a combination of classification and regression trees (CART) and multiple linear regression approaches, we demonstrate that a single predictive model captures measured variability in the effective diffusivity coefficient at the SWI across all morphological types. The best predictive model for the decay depth scale, on the other hand, is tailored to each morphological type separately.

The predictive framework developed here contributes to our understanding of the physical processes responsible for mixing across the SWI,  and therefore the in-bed processes that contribute to the biogeochemical processing of nutrients and other contaminants in streams.

How to cite: Monofy, A., Boano, F., B. Grant, S., and A. Rippy, M.: A diffusive description of Vertical Mixing in the Benthic Biolayer., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-843, 2021.

EGU21-9311 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Groundwater-surface water exchange: A New Graphical User Interface for temperature time-series analysis

Andrea Bertagnoli, Matthijs van Berkel, Uwe Schneidewind, Ricky van Kampen, Stefan Krause, Andrew Tranmer, Charles Luce, and Daniele Tonina

Riverine systems have a dynamic exchange of water with the hyporheic zone and groundwater. Exchange fluxes can be challenging to estimate because they vary spatially and temporally and depend on many geological and hydrological properties. Temperature as a tracer has become a low-cost and robust method to monitor such fluxes both at local and reach (several channel widths) scales. Here, we present the capabilities and functionality of a new graphical user interface (GUI) developed in Python which is operating system independent. The GUI integrates standard and state-of-the-art signal processing methods with data visualization and analysis techniques. The signal analysis library allows the user to select the important frequencies to improve result confidence while the advanced LPMLEn and window function in FFT to reduce leakage in the extraction process of the amplitude and phase of the signals. The GUI streamlines the entire analysis process, from evaluating the raw temperature data to obtaining end-user specified parameters such as flux and streambed thermal properties. It allows for the analysis of single-probe and multi-probe data from short to long-term data sets.

How to cite: Bertagnoli, A., van Berkel, M., Schneidewind, U., van Kampen, R., Krause, S., Tranmer, A., Luce, C., and Tonina, D.: Groundwater-surface water exchange: A New Graphical User Interface for temperature time-series analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9311, 2021.

EGU21-13878 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Effects of natural streambed sediment on the riverbed exchange flows and microbial respiration

Yunxiang Chen, Jie Bao, Bing Li, Xiaofeng Liu, Roman DiBiase, and Timothy Scheibe

Exchange flows at the water-sediment interface control river water quality and carbon cycling through microbial respiration. However, accurate quantification of these exchange flows and microbial respiration is still challenging in field surveys due in part to the dynamic turbulence generated by streambed topography. Using a framework that combines Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry with a fully-coupled surface-subsurface computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, this work studies the effects of streambed sediment structure on riverbed turbulence and its impact on exchange flows and microbial respiration. Specifically, the SfM photogrammetry is first applied to obtain mm- to cm-scale resolution riverbed topography over a meter scale domain at four sites; these high-resolution riverbed topography data are then used to generate meshes for use in hyporheicFoam, a fully coupled surface-subsurface model developed in OpenFOAM. Simulated time series of water depth and average flow velocity from a previously-developed 30-kilometer scale CFD model will be used to set the water depth and mean flow velocity conditions for high-resolution CFD models of the SfM-characterized locations. The modeling results will be used to investigate the dependence of riverbed exchange flows, concentration gradients, and the concentration profile from the water surface to riverbed on water depth, mean velocity, roughness size, sediment distribution, bed porosity, and subsurface permeability. The relative importance of flow advection, turbulence dispersion, and microbial reaction in both streambed and surface water will also be evaluated.

How to cite: Chen, Y., Bao, J., Li, B., Liu, X., DiBiase, R., and Scheibe, T.: Effects of natural streambed sediment on the riverbed exchange flows and microbial respiration, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13878, 2021.

EGU21-11572 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Effect of precipitation and stream discharge on the source composition of stream water

Zhi-Yuan Zhang, Christian Schmidt, and Jan Fleckenstein

The exchange of water between streams and groundwater plays an important role for hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Along a stream the composition of stream water is modified by sequential losses of stream water with the current in-stream chemical signature to the subsurface and gains of water with another signature from the subsurface. This process has been termed hydrologic turnover. To date, most studies on hydrologic turnover have been focused on small stream networks. Moreover, the influence of hydrologic conditions on hydrologic turnover has not been systematically investigated. Taking the lower Selke River in central Germany as an example, we evaluated the evolution of stream-groundwater exchange and the source composition of stream water under different precipitation and stream discharge conditions, based on a coupled stream-groundwater model built in MODFLOW using the Streamflow-routing (SFR1) package. The results show that the stream reaches could be classified into three types: permanently gaining reaches, permanently losing reaches, and transitional reaches. Transitional reaches range from losing condition at higher stream discharge or lower precipitation to gaining condition at lower stream discharge or higher precipitation. In the lower Selke River with a length of 30 km, transitional reaches account for nearly 30% of the total river length in the studied period from 2011 to 2018. Regardless of dry or wet hydrologic condition, nearly 80% of the total groundwater contribution to stream discharge at the catchment outlet were generated over 20% of the total river length. This indicates diffuse groundwater pollution such as from agricultural nitrate may enter the stream network predominantly at a few distinct reaches. Our analysis can help to prioritize areas in a catchment where reduction of diffuse groundwater pollution would have the highest impact on improving stream water quality.

How to cite: Zhang, Z.-Y., Schmidt, C., and Fleckenstein, J.: Effect of precipitation and stream discharge on the source composition of stream water, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11572, 2021.

Groundwater is a major resource for drinking water supply and irrigation of crops in many parts of the world. Many groundwater aquifers are already fully allocated, but the demand is projected to increase further while, concurrently, climate change may cause more variability in the natural supply. This poses enormous challenges for the future management of groundwater resources and a paradigm shift from traditional, threshold-based management strategies to more flexible, adaptive management strategies.

For that purpose, operational forecasting tools are required that predict future states of groundwater aquifers under various scenarios and to predict the risk of critical states which would have adverse effects either for the environment or for water users, or both.

The mathematical description of the complex interactions particularly of shallow, unconfined river-fed aquifers typically requires the use of spatially explicit numerical models. These are, however, not suitable for operational forecasting due to lengthy run-times and extensive data requirements. This also poses strong limitations with respect to predictive uncertainty analysis – which should be an integral part of predictive management tools. Model simplification or model surrogates are the method of choice to circumvent the problem.

An operational forecasting tool is presented here to predict groundwater heads and groundwater storage in the unconfined Wairau Plain Aquifer in Marlborough, New Zealand, during flow recession times. The tool uses low-complexity “eigenmodels” to describe groundwater flow and to provide an early warning for critical groundwater storage levels to the Marlborough District Council, which manages the groundwater resource. These critical levels have been approached more frequently during the past years when the natural recession of groundwater storage in summer is exacerbated by groundwater abstraction to satisfy the irrigation water demand of the Plain’s viticulture.

The forecasting tool requires, amongst others, daily forecasts of Wairau River flows because the river is the major recharge source for the aquifer. Flow forecasts and their uncertainty are computed i) by using a master recession curve for predictions during flow recession times and ii) by a lumped rainfall-runoff model for times of aquifer storage recovery. This allows a broad evaluation of forecasting scenarios. The tool has been tested and is operational for recession times (worst-case scenario predictions; Wöhling & Burbery, 2020). The rainfall-runoff model performs reasonably well in predicting river flows and correspondingly in predicting groundwater storage recovery for historic data (hindcasting). The 30-day predictive uncertainty bounds generally cover the observations of river flows, groundwater levels and aquifer storage. The predictive accuracy of the tool largely depends on the predictive accuracy of the drivers, particularly of the areal estimates of precipitation that drives the rainfall-runoff model and the river-groundwater exchange function that describes aquifer recharge rates.

 

References

Wöhling T, Burbery L (2020). Eigenmodels to forecast groundwater levels in unconfined river-fed aquifers during flow recession. Science of the Total Environment, 747, 141220, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141220.

How to cite: Wöhling, T.: Operational prediction of river-groundwater exchange, groundwater levels and aquifer storage: The Wairau Plain Aquifer , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9700, 2021.

EGU21-13942 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

The Remarkable Generality of the Transient Storage Model with Residence Time Dependence: Temporal Moments.

Mohammad Aghababaei, Timothy Ginn, Kenneth Carroll, Ricardo Gonzalez-Pinzon, and Alex Tartakovsky

Several distinct approaches to the one-dimensional modeling of river corridor transport at the macroscale have been developed as generalizations of the original Transient Storage Model (TSM).  We show that essentially all of them can be captured by simply restructuring the TSM so that the exchange coefficients are functions of residence time, because doing so converts the TSM to a general memory function form.  We use this generalized TSM approach to find novel closed-form expressions for the temporal moments of breakthrough curves resulting from river corridor tracer tests, when hyporheic zone exchange is governed by a memory function.  These expressions are useful because they can be used to test different hypotheses about the hyporheic zone residence time distribution based on analyses of the temporal moments of the tracer test breakthrough curves prior to detailed modeling work.  We demonstrate the application with a case study, and present extensions of the notion of making rate coefficients depend on residence time.

How to cite: Aghababaei, M., Ginn, T., Carroll, K., Gonzalez-Pinzon, R., and Tartakovsky, A.: The Remarkable Generality of the Transient Storage Model with Residence Time Dependence: Temporal Moments., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13942, 2021.

EGU21-9005 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Use of helium as an artificial tracer to study surface water/groundwater exchange

Théo Blanc, Morgan Peel, Matthias S. Brennwald, Rolf Kipfer, and Philip Brunner

Groundwater - surface water interactions (SGI) fundamentally control groundwater recharge. The according dynamics are, thus, key for sustainable (drinking) water management. SGI are particularly relevant in the context of climate change and re-naturalization of canalized rivers, which might affect the availability and quality of groundwater pumped near streams. SGI are often not directly observable due to their complex spatial and temporal patterns. To complement the few available tracer methods (dye, electric conductivity, heat, etc.) to analyze SGI, we developed a novel method to quantify riverine groundwater recharge by using helium (He) as an artificial tracer.

We injected gaseous He into a Swiss pre-alpine river (river Emme, canton of Berne) through perforated tubing which was placed on the riverbed. Dissolved He (as well as Ar, N2 and O2) concentrations were continuously monitored in the river (200 m downstream of the injection point) and in a piezometer (30 m away from the river) using a portable mass spectrometer allowing quantitative gas determination under field conditions (miniRUEDI, gas-equilibrium membrane-inlet mass spectrometer (GEMIMS), Gasometrix GmbH, Brennwald et al. (2016)). The He injection consisted of two pulses, each lasting around 8 hours, during which dissolved He became supersaturated by up to three orders of magnitude compared to the natural (atmospheric) He abundance in surface waters (concentration of air saturated water (ASW)). The two associated He pulses were clearly identifiable in the groundwater and appeared in the piezometer approximately one day after the injection phases. The measured He concentrations in the groundwater were four to six times higher than ASW.

In conclusion, our experimental setup allows the identification of the freshly infiltrated river water in an adjacent groundwater body in a concise, robust and straightforward manner. Our new method is also non-toxic and can thus often be implemented with minimal constraints. Such tracer methods provide useful observations to constrain physically based, surface water/groundwater models.

How to cite: Blanc, T., Peel, M., Brennwald, M. S., Kipfer, R., and Brunner, P.: Use of helium as an artificial tracer to study surface water/groundwater exchange, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9005, 2021.

EGU21-11973 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Analysing surface water-groundwater interactions on selected sites of the River Moselle: Identifying transport processes along an important inland waterway in Germany

Simon Mischel, Michael Engel, Sabrina Quanz, Dirk Radny, Axel Schmidt, Michael Schlüsener, and Arne Wick

Hydraulic engineering structures like locks affect the natural hydraulic conditions and have a relevant impact on surface water – groundwater interactions due to enlarging the hydraulic gradient. For this, these sites are excellent areas to study associated flow paths, mass transport and their spatial and temporal variability in higher detail. However, no large-scale study at an inland waterway is available in Germany until now.

Our work aims to close this gap by applying a multiparameter approach for analyzing surface water-groundwater-interactions by using pH, electrical conductivity, major ions in combination with various other tracers like stable water isotopes, 222-Rn, and tritium. In this context, we also investigate the usability of organic trace compounds and their associated transformation products as potential new tracers.

The main study approach is based on the hypothesis that i) gaining stream sections show relatively high 222-Rn concentrations originating from discharging groundwater and ii) losing stream sections which are characterized by low 222-Rn concentrations as well as lower tritium and organic trace compounds inventories compared to unaffected areas.

During different flow-scenarios of the river Moselle, we test these hypotheses by means of a high-resolution longitudinal sampling at 2 km intervals of the main stream (along 242 km) and its major tributaries in combination with groundwater sampling at numerous wells.

Here, we present the first results of the longitudinal sampling campaign of the river Moselle in October 2020, which took place during intermediate flow conditions (Q=200 m³/s). We used on-site and in-situ 222-Rn measurements and electrical conductivity as a tracer to immediately identify zones along the Moselle with increased groundwater inflow.

With the use of these tracers, we will deepen the conceptual process understanding of surface water – groundwater interactions occurring at larger streams and during different flow conditions, which may lead to a general river characterization of losing and gaining stream reaches. Moreover, understanding the sources of water compounds and the processes involved during transportation and transformation is crucial for maintaining a good quality of the water body, which is key for proper water management. The findings obtained in the region of the Moselle river might be further transferred to other waterways and support decision making.

How to cite: Mischel, S., Engel, M., Quanz, S., Radny, D., Schmidt, A., Schlüsener, M., and Wick, A.: Analysing surface water-groundwater interactions on selected sites of the River Moselle: Identifying transport processes along an important inland waterway in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11973, 2021.

Targeting hypohreic exchange as well as gains and losses as the means of interaction between ground- and surface water in a stream leads forward to the consideration of both influencing the apparent hydrological turnover at the catchment scale i.e. the cumulative effect of gains and losses on physical water composition along a stream. The variability in hydrological turnover across a catchment is governed by the spatially varying connectivity between groundwater and the streambed. Especially under low flow conditions, expansion of turnover relative to stream flow is prominent and its spatial variability is intensified.

Studying the scaling behaviour of hydrological turnover processes, we measured hydrological turnover along two representative stream segments of about 500-600m length at a second order tributary to the river Mosel in Trier, western Germany by applying differential sault dilution gauging (after Payn et al., 2009) over 10 campaigns in summer and 7 in winter. Each stream reach represents a typical geomorphological setting in the catchment. The upstream reach is characterized by steep sloping terrain towards the stream with pastures and forest at higher elevations as the dominant land use. At the downstream reach the terrain is flatter with the stream meandering. The land use is diverse with meadow, pastures and forest as well as settlements. Each respective reach was split into two equidistant parts, resulting in three measurements of hydrological turnover, first and second section as well as the whole reach. Thus, acquiring data accounting for the spatial variability in each reach as well as between reaches. The measurements were carried out weekly, at the two stream reaches from August to September with stream flow ranging from ca. 2 l/s to 94 l/s and at the downstream reach from November to February with stream flow ranging from 200 l/s to over 1000 l/s.

The results show clearly the positive relationship between discharge and the relative volume of water exchanged between stream, hypohreic zone and groundwater as gains and losses at the reach scale. In addition to that, exchange processes vary independently at both investigated reaches. However, the dataset suggests a distinctive relationship between turnovers of an entire reach compared to the sum of the two sub-reach sections. The slope of this relationship may be a first step for the upscaling of observed exchange and turnover processes from the reach to the network scale.

How to cite: Bäthke, L., Ulrich, S., and Schuetz, T.: Quantifying spatial and seasonal variations of groundwater- surface water interaction for the prediction of hydrological turnover on the catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12616, 2021.

EGU21-14709 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Investigating the hydrogeological controls of an ephemeral stream’s flow regime on an alluvial fan in an ecologically important setting in North West England

Joel Blackburn, Jean-Christophe Comte, Gez Foster, and Christopher Gibbins

Ephemeral streams play a key role in supplying water and sediment which are of high ecological importance for their permanent tributaries. The upper River Ehen (the Lake District, North West England) is the focus of a habitat restoration initiative to conserve populations of the endangered freshwater mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera). A previously diverted ephemeral stream, Ben Gill, was restored to its original course over a small alluvial fan (0.075 km2) connecting to the River Ehen to reactivate sediment supply and improve the habitat for freshwater mussels. Like most temporary streams situated on alluvial fans, the flow regime and sediment dynamics of Ben Gill are strongly influenced by fan sedimentary characteristics and interactions with its shallow groundwater aquifer.

This study combined high spatial resolution, near surface geophysics and outcrop data with hydrological data to characterise the hydrogeological properties of the alluvial fan and further develop a hydrological conceptual model of the fan to understand Ben Gill stream flow regimes and sediment supply to the River Ehen.

The conceptual model showed the alluvial fan aquifer was highly productive at the fan apex and along buried palaeochannels, whilst reduced aquifer productivity occurred towards the fan margins. When the volume of water entering the fan apex (via a perennial stream) reached ~60l/s, the fan apex infiltration rate was exceeded resulting in ephemeral flows. This typically occurred following rainfall events >9-11 mm. During flows, significant infiltration occurred along much of the ephemeral channel, though a less permeable zone was observed in the mid-fan. In the lower reaches of the ephemeral channel, groundwater levels sometimes exceeded streambed levels resulting in groundwater discharge into the stream during prolonged wet periods. Connectivity between the ephemeral stream and the River Ehen occurs for approximately 20% of the year.

Numerical hydrogeological modelling of the fan is underway to integrate data on groundwater and streamflow dynamics and associated sediment export from the ephemeral stream. This will help gain a predictive understanding of the streams flow regime and its long-term impacts on the River Ehen, which in turn, will determine the success of the restoration initiative.

How to cite: Blackburn, J., Comte, J.-C., Foster, G., and Gibbins, C.: Investigating the hydrogeological controls of an ephemeral stream’s flow regime on an alluvial fan in an ecologically important setting in North West England, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14709, 2021.

EGU21-9576 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Groundwater dynamics and groundwater surface-water exchange in the near-stream zone across the hydrologic year

Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus

Groundwater dynamics and flow directions in the near-stream zone depend on groundwater gradients, are highly dynamic in space and time, and reflect the flowpaths between stream channel and groundwater. A wide variety of studies have addressed groundwater flow and changes of flow direction in the near-stream domain which, however, have obtained contrasting results on the drivers and hydrologic conditions of water exchange between stream channel and near-stream groundwater. Here, we investigate groundwater dynamics and flow direction in the stream corridor through a spatially dense groundwater monitoring network over a period of 18 months, addressing the following research questions:

  • How and why does groundwater table response vary between precipitation events across different hydrological states in the near-stream domain?
  • How and why does groundwater flow direction in the near-stream domain change across different hydrological conditions?

Our results show a large spatio-temporal variability in groundwater table dynamics. During the progression from dry to wet hydrologic conditions, we observe an increase in precipitation depths required to trigger groundwater response and an increase in the timing of groundwater response (i.e. the lag-time between the onset of a precipitation event and groundwater rise). This behaviour can be explained by the subsurface structure with solum, subsolum, and fractured bedrock showing decreasing storage capacity with depth. A Spearman rank (rs) correlation analysis reveals a lack of significant correlation between the observed minimum precipitation depth needed to trigger groundwater response with the local thickness of the subsurface layer, as well as with the distance from and the elevation above the stream channel. However, both the increase in groundwater level  and the timing of the groundwater response are positively correlated with the thickness of the solum and subsolum layers and with the distance and the elevation from the stream channel, but only during wet conditions. These results suggest that during wet conditions the spatial differences in the groundwater dynamics are mostly controlled by the regolith depth above the fractured bedrock. However, during dry conditions, local changes in the storage capacities of the fractured bedrock or the presence of preferential flowpaths in the fractured schist matrix could control the spatially heterogeneous timing of groundwater response. In the winter months, the groundwater flow direction points mostly toward the stream channel also many days after an event, suggesting that the groundwater flow from upslope locations controls the near-stream groundwater movement toward the stream channel during wet hydrologic conditions. However, during dry-out or long recessions, the groundwater table at the footslopes decreases to the stream level or below. In these conditions, the groundwater fall lines point toward the footslopes both in the summer and in the winter and in different sections of the stream reach. This study highlights the effect of different initial conditions, precipitation characteristics, streamflow, and potential water inflow from hillslopes on groundwater dynamics and groundwater surface-water exchange in the near stream domain.

How to cite: Bonanno, E., Blöschl, G., and Klaus, J.: Groundwater dynamics and groundwater surface-water exchange in the near-stream zone across the hydrologic year, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9576, 2021.

EGU21-9228 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Quantifying vertical streambed fluxes around woody structures using high-resolution streambed temperature measurements.

Uwe Schneidewind, Silvia Folegot, Matthijs van Berkel, Andrea Bertagnoli, Ricky van Kampen, Charles Luce, Daniele Tonina, and Stefan Krause

The quantification of water fluxes across streambeds is an important aspect in the study of groundwater-surface water interactions. One way to deduce fluxes is to use heat as an environmental tracer and measure streambed temperatures. In this study we quantified vertical streambed fluxes over a small reach of the Hammer Stream (West Sussex, UK) that is characterized by a heterogeneous streambed morphology and large woody debris. The Hammer Stream is a meandering lowland stream draining a catchment of 24.6 km2 with mixed agricultural and forest areas.

Our 40 m-long study reach is situated in a deciduous forested valley, characterized by sand-dominated streambed sediments and several large-scale instream woody structures. Previous geophysical measurements identified extensive clay lenses at 1-2 m depth within the streambed, in parts disconnecting the upper streambed from the connected aquifer. Nine high-resolution-temperature sensors (HRTS) were deployed in the upper streambed along the investigated reach to monitor streambed temperatures over several days in different seasons (summer, autumn, winter) and to cover the diverse stream morphology. Each HRTS comprised a fiberoptic cable wrapped around a PVC tube and connected to a XT-DTS (Silixa, single-ended mode with alternating measurement directions) system. This setup allowed us to measure streambed temperatures at an effective vertical resolution of less than 0.5 cm about every 2 min. HRTS measurements were accompanied by surface water and air temperature measurements while previous studies provided information on streambed grain size and hydraulic conductivity.

For analyzing the temperature time-series data we made use of the LPMLEn method, embedded in a newly developed GUI that allows for easy-to-use model setup and estimation of vertical exchange fluxes and thermal streambed parameters. By solving the heat transport equation in the frequency domain for a finite model domain, the LPMLEn method is a continuation of the LPMLE3 method but unlike the latter can make use of temperature information from multiple (n) vertically deployed sensors while optimally taking into account measurement uncertainty during flux estimation.

Results show that streambed temperatures are variable in space and time, with warming/cooling patterns primarily driven by seasonal hydrometeorological conditions. High-flow conditions in winter led to increased hyporheic exchange around the large woody structures.

How to cite: Schneidewind, U., Folegot, S., van Berkel, M., Bertagnoli, A., van Kampen, R., Luce, C., Tonina, D., and Krause, S.: Quantifying vertical streambed fluxes around woody structures using high-resolution streambed temperature measurements., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9228, 2021.

EGU21-14965 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9 | Highlight

The contribution of instream wood to streambed organic matter controls on microbial metabolic activity

Ben Howard, Sami Ullah, Nick Kettridge, Ian Baker, and Stefan Krause

Microbial metabolic activity (MMA) in streambeds drives greenhouse gas (GHG) production and nutrient turnover. Previous research has identified that the quantity and quality of organic matter (OM) are important controls on MMA. Instream wood may make a significant contribution to the total OM content of the streambed, especially in forested streams, but it has typically been ignored or explicitly omitted in previous research. By means of an incubation experiment, we investigate the impact of streambed wood on MMA, GHG production and nutrient turnover rates. By using three geologies (sandstone, chalk and limestone) and allowing temperatures to fluctuate with environmental conditions, we observe these impacts under a range of typical scenarios. These results could have implications for estimates of GHG emissions from streams and inform catchment management, for example the impacts of direct installation of instream wood in river restoration or the indirect input as a result of riparian planting.

How to cite: Howard, B., Ullah, S., Kettridge, N., Baker, I., and Krause, S.: The contribution of instream wood to streambed organic matter controls on microbial metabolic activity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14965, 2021.

EGU21-12699 | vPICO presentations | HS10.9

Effect of sediment-organism interactions on hyporheic exchange in streams: role of sediment reworking time

Shivansh Shrivastava, Michael Stewardson, and Meenakshi Arora

In-stream faunal organisms constantly interact with their habitat to modify its physical and hydraulic properties. However, little is known about how sediment-organism interactions could modify the hyporheic exchange. Previous experimental work investigating the effects of the activities of faunal organisms on exchange across the sediment-water interface has been largely conducted in small mesocosms or infiltration columns that do not represent the lotic environment adequately. Therefore, the experimental findings from these studies may not be transferable to flowing water environments (e.g., streams). Our previous experimental work demonstrated that sediment reworking by macroinvertebrates could significantly alter the hyporheic flux, mean residence times, and depth of exchange in streambeds. In this work, we explore how sediment-organism contact time influence the effect of the activities of model organisms, Lumbriculus variegatus, on the hyporheic flow regime. We conduct laboratory experiments in re-circulating flumes subject to different sediment reworking times (5 and 10 days). The hyporheic flow characteristics in these flumes were studied by conducting dye tracer tests after the bed sediments were reworked. Deposition of fecal pellets and holes/burrows dug by sample organisms were visible at the bed surface in both the experimental flumes. The flume reworked for a longer time exhibited higher hyporheic flux, longer median/mean residence times, and deeper depth of solute penetration compared to the flume reworked for a shorter period. The modification of hyporheic flow regime to different degrees depending on the sediment reworking times has direct relevance to the biogeochemistry in hyporheic zones, and thus on the overall quality of surface and sub-surface waters. We advocate that more intensive laboratory experiments and field investigations must be conducted to support the findings from our study and advance our understanding of the role of the activities of faunal organisms on fluvial ecosystem functioning.

How to cite: Shrivastava, S., Stewardson, M., and Arora, M.: Effect of sediment-organism interactions on hyporheic exchange in streams: role of sediment reworking time, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12699, 2021.

In this study, the temporal variability of the hydrological exchange between stream water (SW) and groundwater (GW), colmation, hyporheic invertebrate fauna, organic matter (OM) and physicochemical parameters were examined for the period of one year. Sampling and measuring were conducted monthly from May 2019 to April 2020 at the Guldenbach river, a second order stream in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. All hyporheic samples were extracted from a depth of 15 cm below stream bottom. Colmation was measured quantitatively in the same depth.

Following the biotic and abiotic patterns found, three temporal stages of different hydrological conditions can be described:

  • 1) Strong floods, in February and March 2020 caused hydromorphological alterations of the river bed, leading to a decolmation of the hyporheic zone, a wash out of OM and hyporheic fauna. Due to high GW tables the vertical hydrological gradient (VHG) was positive indicating upwelling GW.
  • 2) In the months of Mai to August 2019 and April 2020, precipitation and stream discharge were lowest. Predominantly exfiltrating conditions were observed, while the amount of fine sediments (clay and silt) increased as well as colmation. High densities of hyporheic fauna, dominated by fine sediment dwelling taxa, were assessed.
  • 3) From September 2019 to January 2020 stream discharge was low. The VHG became increasingly negative, indicating downwelling SW. In accordance, colmation increased continuously, while densities of hyporheic invertebrates decreased and sediment dwellers became more dominant.

Precipitation, discharge events and GW table were found to be the driving factors for the annual dynamics of the hydrological exchange as well as for colmation, fauna and hydrochemistry. Electric conductivity seems a suitable indicator for the origin of water with high values in months of low precipitation and lower values after extensive precipitation events, respectively. Hyporheic fauna displayed a significant seasonality and the community structure was correlated with colmation and changes in the VHG.

This pronounced seasonality seems to be typical of many streams and should be considered for the monitoring of sediments and hyporheic habitats: Seasons with lower stream discharge are probably the most critical periods for sediment conditions.

We assume that the basic patterns of the dynamics observed basically reflect the natural situation in the catchment. However, the strength of surface run-off and the amount of fine sediments are mainly the result of anthropogenic activities and land use in the catchment.

These findings underline the significance of dynamical processes for the assessment and implementation of the Water Framework Directive.

How to cite: Stein, H. and Hahn, H. J.: Periodic alterations of the hydrological exchange in hyporheic sediments: colmation, hyporheic fauna and abiotic parameters in a second order stream during one year , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15700, 2021.

HS10.10 – Lakes and inland seas in a changing environment

EGU21-398 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Spatial heterogeneity in Dead Sea surface temperature caused by evaporation

Pavel Kishcha, Boris Starobinets, and Pinhas Alpert

The Dead Sea is a terminal hypersaline lake at a unique location at ~430 m below sea level. Over the last several decades the Dead Sea has been drying up due to climate change: its water level has dropped at the rate of ~1 m year-1. In this study we investigated the diurnal cycle of spatial heterogeneity in Dead Sea surface temperature (SST) using METEOSAT geostationary satellite data (2005-2015). METEOSAT data showed that, in the summer months, SST peaked at the same time, 13 LT (local time), as land surface temperature (LST) over surrounding land areas. In the presence of water mixing, the maximum of SST should be observed several hours later than that of LST due to thermal inertia of bulk water. The fact that SST and LST peaked at the same time, 13 LT, is evidence that there was no noticeable vertical water mixing. We consider that, in the absence of noticeable water mixing and under uniform solar radiation in the summer months, inhomogeneity in evaporation was the main causal factor of the observed spatial heterogeneity in Dead Sea SST. METEOSAT showed that spatial heterogeneity in SST was pronounced throughout the daytime. In summer, SST peaked at 13 LT, when SST reached 38.1 oC, 34.1 oC, and 35.4 oC being averaged over the east, middle and west parts of the lake, respectively. The above mentioned spatial heterogeneity in daytime SST caused a pronounced asymmetry in land surface temperature between land areas adjacent to the east and west sides of the lake. Maximal evaporation (causing maximal surface water cooling) took place at the middle part of the Dead Sea, while minimum evaporation took place at the east side of the lake. In the nighttime, METEOSAT data showed that SST values were minimal and SST spatial distribution was much more uniform compared to the daytime. We found that, in winter, when maximal solar radiation reached ~500 W/m2 compared to ~900 W/m2 in summer, daytime SST non-uniformity was less pronounced than that in summer. As the characteristic feature of the diurnal cycle, SST daily temperature range was equal to 7.2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.8 °C over the east, middle and west parts of the Dead Sea, respectively, in summer, compared to 5.3 °C, 1.2 °C, and 2.3 °C in winter.

Evaporation causes significant drying up of the Dead Sea, especially in the summer months, as the main contributor to maximal water level drop in the lake. However, no measurements of spatial distribution of Dead Sea evaporation have ever been conducted, either in situ or from space. Our findings allowed us to visualize spatial inhomogeneity in evaporation using the obtained heterogeneity in Dead Sea SST.

Reference:   Kishcha P. and Starobinets B. (2021). Spatial heterogeneity in Dead Sea surface temperature associated with inhomogeneity in evaporation. Remote Sensing  (Special Issue: Remote Sensing of Lake Properties and Dynamics), 13(1), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13010093.

How to cite: Kishcha, P., Starobinets, B., and Alpert, P.: Spatial heterogeneity in Dead Sea surface temperature caused by evaporation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-398, 2021.

EGU21-923 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

A New Thermal Categorization of Ice-covered Lakes

Bernard Yang, Mathew Wells, Bailey McMeans, Hilary Dugan, James Rusak, Gesa Weyhenmeyer, Jennifer Brentrup, Allison Hrycik, Alo Laas, Rachel Pilla, Jay Austin, Paul Blanchfield, Cayelan Carey, Matthew Guzzo, Noah Lottig, Murray Mackay, Trevor Middel, Don Pierson, Junbo Wang, and Joelle Young

Lakes are traditionally classified based on their thermal regime and trophic status. While this classification adequately captures many lakes, it is not sufficient to understand seasonally ice-covered lakes, the most common lake type on Earth. We describe the inverse thermal stratification in 19 highly varying lakes and derive a model that predicts the temperature profile as a function of wind stress, area, and depth. The results suggest an additional subdivision of seasonally ice-covered lakes to differentiate under-ice stratification. When ice forms in smaller and deeper lakes, inverse stratification will form with a thin buoyant layer of cold water (near 0oC) below the ice, which remains above a deeper 4oC layer. In contrast, the entire water column can cool to ~0oC in larger and shallower lakes. We suggest these alternative conditions for dimictic lakes be termed “cryostratified” and “cryomictic.”

How to cite: Yang, B., Wells, M., McMeans, B., Dugan, H., Rusak, J., Weyhenmeyer, G., Brentrup, J., Hrycik, A., Laas, A., Pilla, R., Austin, J., Blanchfield, P., Carey, C., Guzzo, M., Lottig, N., Mackay, M., Middel, T., Pierson, D., Wang, J., and Young, J.: A New Thermal Categorization of Ice-covered Lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-923, 2021.

EGU21-1407 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Intrusions of sediment laden fluids into density stratified water columns can be an unrecognized source of mixing in many lakes.

George Lu, Mathew Wells, Ian Van Stygeren, and Robert Hecky

When a sediment laden river flows into a stratified water body, the water mass can either intrude as an overflow, interflow, or underflow depending upon the density contrast between the river and the lake. If the river is sufficiently warm or fresh to compensate for the additional mass of sediment, an overflow results, below which convective sedimentation occurs. If the sediment load is sufficiently high, then an underflow initially occurs, from which the warm/fresh interstitial material can subsequently loft as sedimentation reduces the initial density. Such convection can even potentially overturn the water column stratification if there is a very fresh, but very high sediment load turbidity current. For intermediate cases, an interflow can occur. Here it is possible for both lofting and sediment driven convection to occur above and below the pycnocline. All these different regimes can be described in terms of two dimensionless parameters: RS and RA, which are ratios that compare the density contrast due to sediment between the river and the upper layer with the density contrast between the upper and lower layers and the density contrast between the river and upper layer, respectively. We used laboratory experiments to describe the vigour of convection in terms of these dimensionless parameters, which then allows the behaviour in various rivers inflows into lakes to be predicted. We also apply our observations to predict how a turbidity current could lead to lofting and possible overturn of the stratification of meromictic Lake Kivu.

How to cite: Lu, G., Wells, M., Van Stygeren, I., and Hecky, R.: Intrusions of sediment laden fluids into density stratified water columns can be an unrecognized source of mixing in many lakes., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1407, 2021.

EGU21-1426 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Ensemble climate projections on stratification dynamics in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir and potential adaptation strategies

Karsten Rinke, Tom Shatwell, Jun Ma, Yaqian Xu, Fangli Su, and Chenxi Mi

The thermal structure in reservoirs affects the development of aquatic ecosystems and is substantially influenced by changing climate conditions. At the same time, reservoir management strategies can also affect the thermal structure of the water body and may enable adaptation strategies in a warmer world. We applied a two-dimensional hydrodynamicmodel to explore the response of the thermal structure in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir, Rappbode Reservoir, to future climate projections and different water withdrawal strategies. We used projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 from an ensemble of 4 different global climate models taken from the ISIMIP project. Simulation results showed that epilimnetic water temperatures in the reservoir strongly increased under all three climate scenarios while the magnitude of warming directly corresponds to the increase in air temperatures. Hypolimnetic temperatures remained rather constant under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 but increased markedly under RCP 8.5. Under the intense warming in RCP 8.5, hypolimnion temperatures were projected to rise from 5 °C to 8 °C by the end of the century. Moreover, the results suggested that surface withdrawal can be an effective adaptation strategy under strong climate warming (RCP 8.5) to reduce surface warming and even avoid hypolimnetic warming. This study documents how global scale climate projections can be translated into site-specific climate impacts to derive adaptation strategies for reservoir operation. Moreover, our results illustrate that the most intense warming scenario, i.e. RCP 8.5, demands far-reaching climate adaptation while the mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6) does not require adaptation of reservoir management before 2100.

How to cite: Rinke, K., Shatwell, T., Ma, J., Xu, Y., Su, F., and Mi, C.: Ensemble climate projections on stratification dynamics in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir and potential adaptation strategies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1426, 2021.

EGU21-1576 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Lake Tarfala, N-Sweden – first results from a natural observatory mimicking future changes in glacier-fed Arctic lakes

Nina Kirchner, Frederik Schenk, Jakob Kuttenkeuler, Gunhild Rosqvist, Jan Weckström, Kaarina Weckström, Atte Korhola, Marnie Hancke, Annika Granebeck, and Pia Eriksson

Lake Tarfala is an up to 50 m deep glacier-proximal Arctic lake in the Kebnekaise Mountains, northern Sweden (~67°55' N, ~18°35' E, 1162 m asl) in direct vicinity to the Tarfala Research Station run by Stockholm University, and to the glacier Storglaciären for which the world’s longest glacier mass balance record is kept since 1946. The neighboring Kebnepakte Glacier drains directly into Lake Tarfala. The site provides a unique an easily accessible natural observatory to study the impacts of climate and environmental change in an Arctic lake linked to a melting glacier.

As other Arctic lakes, Lake Tarfala is exposed to accelerated atmospheric warming in recent decades leading to increasingly shorter periods of lake freeze-over. Recent warming has also led to a widespread mass loss from glaciers with so for unclear implications for glacier-fed lakes which may receive larger amounts of meltwater and sediments from shrinking glaciers.

General atmospheric warming on the one hand and in response an increased influx of cold glacial meltwater to glacier-fed lakes on the other hand thus cause two competing processes determining the thermal state of a lake. Understanding (changing) lake thermal states and associated lake mixing dynamics is important because it has ramifications for a multitude of lake ecological, biological, and geochemical processes.

Here, we present the first continuous 3-year water temperature record from the deepest part of Lake Tarfala, acquired between 2016 and 2019. The record shows that Lake Tarfala is dimictic with overturning during spring and fall with substantial interannual variability concerning the timing, duration and intensity of mixing processes, as well as of summer and winter stratification. Particularly cold lake winter states appear to be related to elevated influx of cold glacial meltwater.

The projected high mass loss of Scandinavian glaciers with up to more than 80% of their volume under RCP8.5 until 2100 AD relative to 2015 renders Lake Tarfala a natural observatory where changes in processes, inherent timescales and impacts in response to competing drivers can be studied before they occur at other glacial lake sites where glaciers melt at a slower place.

How to cite: Kirchner, N., Schenk, F., Kuttenkeuler, J., Rosqvist, G., Weckström, J., Weckström, K., Korhola, A., Hancke, M., Granebeck, A., and Eriksson, P.: Lake Tarfala, N-Sweden – first results from a natural observatory mimicking future changes in glacier-fed Arctic lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1576, 2021.

EGU21-1693 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Winter limnology: how do hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry shape ecosystems under ice?

Joachim Jansen, Sally MacIntyre, David Barrett, Yu-Ping Chin, Alicia Cortés, Alexander Forrest, Allison Hrycik, Rosemary Martin, Bailey McMeans, Milla Rautio, and Robert Schwefel

The ice-covered period in lakes is increasingly recognized for its unique hydrodynamic and biogeochemical phenomena and ecological relevance yet it remains poorly studied compared to the ice-free season. Knowledge gaps exist where research areas – hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and biology – intersect. For example, density-driven circulation under ice coincides with an expansion of the anoxic zone, but abiotic and biotic controls on oxygen depletion have not been disentangled. While heterotrophic microorganisms and migrating phytoplankton often thrive at the oxycline, the extent to which physical processes induce fluxes of heat and substrates that further support under-ice food webs is uncertain. Similarly, radiatively-driven convection under ice in spring can promote growth of motile phytoplankton or diatoms depending on flow velocity, water clarity and mixing depth, but links between functional trait selection, trophic transfer to zooplankton and fish and the prevalence of microbial versus classical food webs in seasonally ice-covered lakes remain unclear. Under-ice processes cascade into and from the ice-free season, and are relevant to annual cycling of energy and carbon through aquatic food webs. Understanding the coupling between state transitions and the reorganization of trophic hierarchies is essential for predicting complex ecosystem responses to climate change. In this presentation, we briefly review existing knowledge regarding physical processes in lakes in winter and the parallel developments in under-ice biogeochemistry and ecology. We then illustrate interactions between these processes, identify extant knowledge gaps whose solution requires interdisciplinary approaches, and present (novel) methods to address outstanding questions.

How to cite: Jansen, J., MacIntyre, S., Barrett, D., Chin, Y.-P., Cortés, A., Forrest, A., Hrycik, A., Martin, R., McMeans, B., Rautio, M., and Schwefel, R.: Winter limnology: how do hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry shape ecosystems under ice?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1693, 2021.

EGU21-2245 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

The under-ice microbiome, a five-year study at Lake Tovel

Ulrike Obertegger

Little is known about changes in microbial abundance and community composition during persistent ice cover of lakes. Here, the under-ice 16S rRNA diversity was assessed for different pelagic layers and compared between years (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) at Lake Tovel (1177 m above sea level; Italy). Functional profiling of amplicon sequences variants (ASVs) was also done with Piphillin. Environmental parameters (chemistry, temperature, light climate, oxygen concentration) were linked to the observed diversity patterns. Despite relatively uniform temperature and chemistry profiles, the pelagic and hypolimnetic microbiome of different years were different as assessed by a Principal Coordinates Analysis. The under-ice light climate was a driving factor of the observed differences and related to different precipitations patterns. These results underline how a changing climate also influences life under ice.   

How to cite: Obertegger, U.: The under-ice microbiome, a five-year study at Lake Tovel, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2245, 2021.

EGU21-2537 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Water balance in the Antarctic lakes

Elena Shevnina

Antarctica keeps great volume of water on Earth. Its cold, dry and windy climate leads peculiar balance of water in various phases (solid, liquid and gas), and it is sensitive to warming. Increase of near surface temperature enhances water transition from solid to liquid phase (melting) as well as to gas (evaporation). The melted water is accumulated in a population of glacial lakes. These water bodies are located inside glaciers (subglacial type), over their surface (supraglacial type) or contacted glaciers (proglacial or epiglacial type). The glacial lakes are connected by a network of ephemeral streams. This hydrological network is typical in a lowest zone of Antarctic ice sheet, where the melting is substantial in the continental mass balance.

Water cycle in the glacial lakes differs with their type, and various processes drive water transport in the glacial lakes. In this study, the water balance equation method was applied to evaluate the volume of water accumulated in the glacial lakes. The water balance equation was written separately for the lakes of the epiglacial and supraglacial types. We used the observations by the long-term monitoring network, the data collected by the remote sensing, and the in-situ measurements gathered in field campaigns in the evaluations of the volume of lakes, the evaporation over a lake surface, and the inflow/outflow runoff. The components were evaluated for the epiglacial lakes located in the the Shirmacher, the Larsemann Hills and the Thala Hills oases (East Antarctica). 

The lake volume was evaluated from the lake surface area and depth measured withing last 10 years. The results show that since late 1980s, the lake volume has increased on many epiglacial lakes located not only in the coastal oases but also in the continental interior. The results suggest that the evaporation in among a key components of the water balance of the glacial lakes located in the Antarctica. In the polar region, the role of the evaporation is traditionally underestimated due to lack of the observations with precise measuring techniques. The results of the study contribute with the QAntarctica with the dataset on the actual physiography of the glacial lakes in Antarctica. This study is supported by the Academy of Finland (contract number 304345) with the logistic support of the national programs on the Antarctic research. 

How to cite: Shevnina, E.: Water balance in the Antarctic lakes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2537, 2021.

EGU21-2763 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Development of thermal stability curve to forecast water column stratification

Lais Amorim, José Rodolfo Martins, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, Fábio Nogueira, Fábio Silva, Bárbara Duarte, and Ariel Magalhães

Lakes are lentic environmental with unique hydrodynamic, which depends on the morphology, in and outflows, and atmospheric variables. This last driving force has its influence represented, mostly, by radiation and wind. All the interactions in the water column are harmed when the water column is divided into layers with different densities.

This condition means no gas or nutrients exchanges, impairing the food channel, and oxygen availability across the lake. Lakes and reservoirs play a key role for the development of populations, industries, human activities that need water, and also as a landscape component, this context increases the necessity to ensure its availability during the year. In this perspective, the interest in understanding lakes’ hydrodynamics and their effects on the water quality grew, aiming for appropriate management of the reservoirs and contributing areas.

To collaborate with the knowledge in this area this research intended to improve the reservoir operator’s capacity to forecast situations that can compromise their uses. This objective was achieved by investigating the possibility of a functional relationship between the atmospheric forces and the lake thermal status changing.

Stratification can be postulated as an energy balance considering the energy incident from solar radiation and the kinetic energy transferred by the wind in terms of the surface wind-drag force. The lake's thermal conditions can be affected when an instability factor is inserted in the system. The wind's speed fluctuation produces the instability that transfers an amount of energy to the water column, provoking oscillations on the isothermals or internal waves.

A curve that represents this concept was constructed by crossing high-frequency field data from four lakes from two proxies, S* Rad-1 and W* S*-1. The proxies describe the effectiveness of energy transfer from the atmospheric to the water column, and so, which is the ruling energy on balance at the moment. The variables included in it are Rad (total amount of the incident radiation on the last 24h (J m-²)); W* (mean of the wind’s speed variance in a time window (m s-1), multiplied by the air density (kg m-3) and the lake's depth (m)); and the S* (Schmidt Number mean of the last 24h (J m-²)).

The determined curve represents the thermal condition of the lake as a balanced result of the external variables and potential energy contained in the water column. This tool was able to represent the lakes’ thermal status rapidly and well, with little data information. Its performance was tested against most known lakes’ indices (Lake Number and Wedderburn Number) presenting more accurately with fewer data. Those outcomes allow an improvement to the reservoirs’ management tools and operations.

How to cite: Amorim, L., Martins, J. R., Vinçon-Leite, B., Nogueira, F., Silva, F., Duarte, B., and Magalhães, A.: Development of thermal stability curve to forecast water column stratification, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2763, 2021.

EGU21-2957 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Critical Depth Model – Primary Production by Phytoplanktons 

Jayatu Kanta Bhuyan, Eiichi Furusato, and Subashisa Dutta

The spring bloom phenomenon in large regions of the world oceans have been studied for decades. However, the conditions necessary to trigger spring blooms remains uncertain till date. During the past decades several hypothesis appeared, the first being critical depth hypothesis - a conventional framework put forwarded by a Norwegian researcher H.U Sverdrup in the North Atlantic. His theory predicts that phytoplankton blooms occur when the mixing depth of the water column is less than a critical threshold value. This hypothesis proposed by Sverdrup (1953) to explain the occurrence of spring bloom of phytoplankton is known as critical depth (zcr) in oceanography. Thus, the zcr corresponds to the depth at which integral net photosynthesis is balanced by respiratory losses.

For the computation of the growth term to explain spring bloom of phytoplankton several alternative models have been proposed which are based on grazing and mixing processes, mathematical modelling and simulations, controlled and field experiments. Mathematical expressions have been extensively investigated by means of integro-differential equation models (Platt et al., 1991; Huisman and Weissing, 1994; Weissing and Huisman, 1994). Simplifying assumption such as use of linear P-I curve by Sverdrup, series solution based on a light saturation exponential model by Platt et al. (1991) and rectangular hyperbola model by Huisman (1999) are removed. Here, we focus on selecting a high accuracy P-I curve for estimating zcr.

The most accurate photosynthesis-intensity relationship (P-I equation), a right-angle hyperbolic function, is proposed for critical depth evaluation. An exact analytical solution is presented by performing definite depth integrations of the right-angle hyperbolic equation and examining a method to obtain the equation by considering the mathematical characteristics. The series expansion equation including Bernoulli's number was used because the right-angle hyperbolic equation does not provide analytical solutions in definite integration. Moreover, since the integration range of this series equation is mathematically limited to π/2 or less, a new series of right-angle hyperbolic P-I equation is proposed by using polynomial approximation in the depth range up to the maximum photosynthetic rate (Pm). We, therefore present concise ideas for the estimation of zcr limited to saturation type P-I curve by comparing the obtained equation with the critical water depths evaluated in previous studies. Furthermore, we suggest that future models of bloom formation should include shape factor for water column to make realistic projections for engineering applications in inland water bodies.

References:

Huisman J (1999): Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton: Microcosm experiments, Ecology, 80(1), 202–210.

Huisman J & Weissing FJ (1994): Light Limited Growth and Competition for Light in Well Mixed Aquatic Environments: An Elementary Model. Ecology, 75(2), 507-520.

Platt T, Bird DF, Sathyendranath S (1991): Critical depth and marine primary production. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 246(1317), 205-217.  

Sverdrup, HU (1953). On Conditions for the Vernal Blooming of Phytoplankton. Cons. int. Explor. 18(3), 287-295.

Weissing FJ & Huisman J (1994): Growth and Competition in a Light Gradient. J. theor. Biol., 168, 323 – 326.

How to cite: Bhuyan, J. K., Furusato, E., and Dutta, S.: Critical Depth Model – Primary Production by Phytoplanktons , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2957, 2021.

Some attempts to predict water temperature in lakes by means of machine learning (ML) approaches have been pursued in recent years, relying on the performances that ML showed in many different contexts. The existing literature is focused on specific applications, and does not provide a general framework. Therefore, we systematically tested the role of different forcing factors on the accuracy of the simulation of lake surface water temperature (LSWT), comparing ML results with those obtained for a synthetic case study by means of a physically-based one-dimensional model, GLM. Among the available supervised ML tools, we considered artificial neural network (ANN) with back propagation, one of the most common and successful methods.

In our modelling exercise, we found that the two most important factors influencing the ability of ML to predict LSWT in temperate climates are air temperature (AT) and the day of the year (DOY). All the other meteorological inputs provide only minor improvements if considered additionally to AT and DOY, while they cannot be used as single predictors. The analysis showed that an important role is played by lake depth because a larger volume per unit of surface area implies a larger heat capacity of the lake, which smooths the temporal evolution of LSWT.  Such a filtering behaviour of deep lakes is not reproduced by standard ML methods, and requires an ad hoc pre-processing of AT input, which needs to be averaged with a proper time window. Moreover, while shallow lakes tend to be relatively well-mixed also in summer, deeper lakes can develop a strong stratification that tends to isolate the surface layer, modifying the thermally reactive volume and thus affecting the temporal evolution of LSWT. These considerations suggest that the physical dynamics of lakes, and especially of deep lakes, needs to be carefully considered also when adopting “black-box” approaches such as ML.

 

How to cite: Yousefi, A. and Toffolon, M.: The influence of water depth and forcing factors on the performances of Machine Learning approaches for the simulation of lake surface water temperature, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2970, 2021.

EGU21-3846 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Former bay of the desiccating Aral Sea as the newly formed world’s largest heliothermal lake 

Alexander Izhitskiy, Georgiy Kirillin, Igor Goncharenko, Abilgazy Kurbaniyazov, and Peter Zavialov

The Aral Sea desiccation is the worst aquatic ecological disaster of the last century, important for understanding the worldwide trends to degradation of arid lakes under water use and climate change. Formerly the fourth largest lake worldwide, the Aral Sea has lost ~90% of its water since the early 1960s due to irrigation in its drainage basin. Basing on field observations and numerical simulations, we show that the former bay of the Aral Sea — Chernyshev — turned to a meromictic heliothermal water body with extreme temperature, light and chemical regimes. The heliothermal regime of Chernyshev keeps the deep monimolimnion warm (about 15-16°C) throughout cold winter. Among less than 30 heliothermal waters worldwide, Chernyshev with its area of ~80-90 km2 is the largest heliothermal lake, the second one being permanently ice-covered Antarctic lake Vanda. Chernyshev is also the youngest heliothermal lake, emerged within the last half-century. Seasonal themal cycle of the basin, scenarios of its formation and possible consequences for the ecosystem are discussed.

The study is funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR project № 20-55-12007) and German Research Foundation (DFG KI 853-16/1).

How to cite: Izhitskiy, A., Kirillin, G., Goncharenko, I., Kurbaniyazov, A., and Zavialov, P.: Former bay of the desiccating Aral Sea as the newly formed world’s largest heliothermal lake , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3846, 2021.

EGU21-4053 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Controlling metalimnetic bloom of Planktothrix rubescens by a novel water withdrawal strategy: a modelling study

Chenxi Mi, Marieke Frassl, David Hamilton, Tom Shatwell, Xiangzhen Kong, Bertram Boehrer, Yiping Li, and Karsten Rinke

Aggregations of cyanobacteria in lakes and reservoirs are commonly associated with surface blooms, but may also occur in the metalimnion as subsurface or deep chlorophyll maxima. Metalimnetic cyanobacteria blooms are of great concern when potentially toxic species, such as Planktothrix rubescens (P. rubescens), are involved. Apparently, metalimnetic blooms of P. rubescens have increased in frequency and severity in recent years so there is a strong need to establish the external factors controlling its growth. We hypothesized that P. rubescens blooms in reservoirs can be managed by modifying the water withdrawal strategy and altering the light climate experienced by the algae. We tested our hypothesis in Rappbode Reservoir by establishing a series of withdrawal and light scenarios based on a calibrated water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2). Our scenarios demonstrated that metalimnetic water withdrawal reduced P. rubescens biomass in the reservoir. According to the simulation results we defined an optimal withdrawal volume to control P. rubescens blooms in the reservoir as approximately 10 million m3 during its blooming period. The numerical results also indicated that P. rubescens growth can be most effectively suppressed if the metalimnetic withdrawal is applied in the early stage of its rapid growth (i.e. before the occurrence of blooms). Additionally, the results showed that P. rubescens biomass gradually decreased with increasing light extinction and nearly disappeared when the extinction coefficient exceeded 0.55 m-1.  Our results indicated that close linkages among in situ measurements, model simulations, empirical growth rate and flushing rate calculations could inform management strategies to minimise the harmful impacts of P. rubescens in water supplies. Such a strategy could be used in reservoir operational strategies as an adaptation way to offset the rise in P. rubescens populations that has been linked to climate change.

How to cite: Mi, C., Frassl, M., Hamilton, D., Shatwell, T., Kong, X., Boehrer, B., Li, Y., and Rinke, K.: Controlling metalimnetic bloom of Planktothrix rubescens by a novel water withdrawal strategy: a modelling study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4053, 2021.

EGU21-5304 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Deriving the full turbulent stress tensor from paired ADCP measurements: application to under-ice convection

Georgiy Kirillin, Sergey Bogdanov, and Sergey Volkov

The Reynolds stress tensor (RST) is the key characteristic of turbulence describing the paths of turbulent kinetic energy transfer and its anisotropy. Despite recent technical advances in application of multi-beam acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) to in situ acquiring of the RST components, derivation of the full Reynolds tensor from raw flow measurements remains a challenging problem. We present a method for derivation of the full set of turbulent stresses, based on combined use of two ADCPs with two beams from adjacent devices crossing at some point.  In the proposed framework, two 3-beam ADCPs with vertically aligned axes constitute the minimum configuration sufficient to derive 6 equations for all 6 RST components. 
The method was applied to studying turbulence in a convectively mixed layer in ice-covered Lake Kilpisjärvi. The calculated dynamics of all six stress components revealed diurnal periodicity along with the variations with the periods of a few hours. The pulsations intensities (diagonal components of RST) remained positive except short outliers; less than 5% of cases did not meet the so-called realizability requirements (positive definiteness of the stress matrix). The off-diagonal stresses demonstrated sign-changing dynamics, mirroring the inter-component energy transfer.
The ratio of pulsation intensities along vertical and horizontal axes varied in the range from 0.02 to 0.25. The r.m.s. values of horizontal and vertical pulsations reached diurnal maximums of 4 and 1 mm/s correspondingly, the latter being close to 1/3 of the convective velocity w*, in accordance with the previous studies on free convection. 
The new approach provides an immediate insight into the internal structure of the turbulent boundary mixing, especially relevant to anisotropic non-stationary flows, like buoyancy-driven convection. The preliminary results on under-ice convection elucidate strong anisotropy of the convective flow — a key to understanding the heat and mass transport in ice-covered waters.

How to cite: Kirillin, G., Bogdanov, S., and Volkov, S.: Deriving the full turbulent stress tensor from paired ADCP measurements: application to under-ice convection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5304, 2021.

EGU21-5707 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Plastic debris and plastic litter in the Kerch Strait of the Black Sea

Peter Zavialov

It is well-known that the shallow Sea of Azov can be thought of as a large estuary receiving discharges from the Don and the Kuban rivers, therefore, the flow through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea usually carries a variety of pollutants. However, the flux of plastic waste through the Strait has never been quantified. In situ measurements and sampling of microplastic debris and floating plastic litter in the Kerch Strait were conducted by a team from Shirshov Institute of Oceanology on July 16-18, 2020, along with CTD and ADCP profiling in the cross-section of the strait. The microplastic debris were sampled using a 0.3 mm mesh size Manta trawl net towed behind the R/V "Peleng" cruising at 4 kts and taking material from the upper 1 m of the water column. As a result, a large set of plastic particles, fibers and films were collected. All sampled items were measured, weighted, and sorted by composition using Micro NIR 1700 spectrometer instrument. The particle sizes ranged from 0.4 to 25.0 mm and weights varied between 0.05 and 7.72 mg. With respect to the chemical composition, about 63% of the collected particles were udentified as HDPE (high-densuty polyethylene), 21% as PP (polypropylene), 5% as PET (polyethylene terephthalate), 4% as PA (polyamide), 4% as PC (polycarbonate), and 3% as all other types of plastic. The content of visually identifiable plastic litter in the Kerch Strait varied between about 10 and 200 pieces per km2, with the average value close to 100 pieces/km2. However, the distribution was far from homogeneous – the litter was mainly concentrated in the western part of the Strait, where the principal stream carrying the Sea of Azov water into the Black Sea is usually localized. The newly obtained data of plastic litter concentration together with the current velocity data collected in ADCP profiling enabled us to estimate for the first time the flux of plastic through the Kerch Strait from the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea. This can be done by simply multiplying the plastic concentration by the velocity and then integrating it over the cross-section of the Strait. This procedure yields an estimate of 14,700 major pieces of plastic such as bottles, bags, etc., passing through the Strait per day. Assuming the average weight of a plastic litter piece 15 g , this leads to 220 kg/day, or about 9 kg/hour. This is quite a considerable mass of plastic, although it is about 20 times smaller than the amount brought to the Black Sea by the Danube according to [Lechner et al., 2014]. It must be kept in mind, however, that our estimate for the Kerch Strait is based on instantaneous one-time measurements, and may not represent long-term average values.

The studies described in this presentation represent the Russian contribution to the PLUMPLAS Project within STI BRICS cooperative initiative, implemented through the Russian Basic Research Foundation grant 19-55-80004.

How to cite: Zavialov, P.: Plastic debris and plastic litter in the Kerch Strait of the Black Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5707, 2021.

EGU21-6478 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Hydroecological status of Kultuchnoe lake (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy)

Maria Grechushnikova and Sergey Chalov

Lake Kultuchnoe applies to lakes of lagoon type and is located in the historical center of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The area and volume of the lake in connection with human economic activity was repeatedly reduced during backfilling. In the early 90s of the last century the lake was divided into two parts. The area of the water mirror of both lakes is about 2 km2. The maximum depth of the Big lake – 7 m, Small lake– 1.2 m. Compared to the conditions that took place 30 years ago, there is an improvement in the state of the aquatic ecosystem and a decrease in the level of pollution. This is due to the reconstruction of urban sewage systems, in the 2000s, the release of fecal and industrial wastewater stopped. During the open water period a direct stratification is formed in the lake, and in the deepest part of it during the summer, low water temperatures remain in the bottom horizons and there is a lack of oxygen. The stratification is due to the insufficient length of wind acceleration for mixing the lake to the bottom and creates prerequisites for the formation of oxygen-free conditions below the boundary of the mixed layer (2-3 m). The systematic discharge of drainage wastewater into Lake Kultuchnoye through sewers with three outlets in the littoral part of the Big Lake and one in the Small Lake was revealed. According to the complex of components and indicators of water quality, the water in the Big and Small Lakes has a high level of, although the concentrations of many pollutants have decreased during the last 30 years. Compared to the state of the lake in 1990s, there was a decrease in the lake water of copper and manganese, phenols, petroleum products, ammonium nitrogen and BOD. Silty bottom sediments had a uniform composition, olive color. The content of organic matter reaches 14.4-16.9%, which indicates the active mineralization of organic residues. According to the content of mineral phosphorus (more than 10 μg/l), due to the influx of polluted waters, water masses do not experience a limit for the development of biota. In the Big Kultuchnoe Lake, the content of mineral phosphorus in the bottom horizons is 74-163 µg/l. In Small Kultuchnoe Lake, the content of mineral and total phosphorus is lower – up to 60 µg/l, which may be due to a more active process of its consumption by higher algae, which the lake is almost completely overgrown. Methane emission is the highest from the surface of the Small Lake (37.4 mgC / m2h), which is due to its high content in the water and low (up to 1 m) depth. For Big Kultuchnoe lake specific flow rate not exceeding 20,7 mgC/m2h. To preserve the ecosystem of the lake, which is located in the historical part of the city near important tourist infrastructure and has great recreational value, it is proposed to create phyto-treatment facilities that would intercept drainage runoff and not violate the overall appearance of the landscape.

How to cite: Grechushnikova, M. and Chalov, S.: Hydroecological status of Kultuchnoe lake (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6478, 2021.

EGU21-6996 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Application of semi-distributed hydrological model to simulate the lake volumes of small closed lakes in the Northern Kazakhstan

Nurlan Ongdas, Vadim Yapiyev, Farida Akiyanova, Adlet Nazhbiyev, Yergali Karakulov, Zhanay Sagintayev, Kanat Samakhanov, and Anne Verhoef

Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), which is famous for its beautiful lakes and pine forests, is an important tourist destination and biodiversity hot spot in cold, semi-arid Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia. BNNP lake system is being influenced by increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change impacts. Lake level declines observed from 2008 to 2013 followed by rebound from 2013 onwards raised concerns about the future of these unique lakes. Previous studies on BNNP lakes showed that its steady long-term water storage decline was mainly due to a natural water balance deficit, with evaporation (from the lakes and catchments) exceeding precipitation. Next, to obtain a deeper understanding of this complex lake system, we studied the BNNP’s catchments by applying a hydrological model. This work is the first attempt to simulate the hydrological processes in two key BNNP lakes (Ulken Shabakty and Burabay) using a semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The available daily lake level measurements were transformed into lake volumes using the data from a recent bathymetric survey and Surface Volume tool of ArcGIS. The level of Burabay Lake is determined by its main outlet, Gromotukha river, that discharges the excess water from Burabay Lake to Ulken Shabakty. Therefore, it acts as a natural reservoir and allows to use the Reservoir function of SWAT. Calibration of the model by lake volumes was done for years 2010-2013 and the model performed well for both lakes (NSE 0.71 and 0.57; KGE 0.77 and 0.73; PBIAS -0.9 and -0.4 for Ulken Shabakty and Burabay, respectively). However, during validation for years 2014-2016 the model performance decreased considerably (NSE -23.94 and -0.35, KGE 0.12 and -0.35, PBIAS 7.6 and -0.3 for Ulken Shabakty and Burabay, respectively). SWAT substantially overestimated the lake volumes for Ulken Shabakty by 0.01 km3 on average for the validation period. This extreme overestimation highlights the specific features of both basins, which has to do with the local subsurface flows. Due to the relatively simplistic representation of groundwater in SWAT and the absence of comprehensive groundwater data, the calibrated model might not have been able to fully capture the complexity of the actual hydrogeologic system. As a result, smaller in size surface catchment boundary (in the case of Ulken Shabakty Lake) is considered in comparison to potentially larger groundwater catchment boundary. In addition, two years (2010 and 2012) used for calibration were drought years, during which the model might have compensated for the lower groundwater flows by simulating enhanced surface runoff and lateral flow. As a result, during the following years with normal and higher precipitation amounts (2013-2016) significantly higher surface runoff was generated. Further studies using coupled groundwater and surface water models are necessary to understand the interactions between groundwater and surface water.

How to cite: Ongdas, N., Yapiyev, V., Akiyanova, F., Nazhbiyev, A., Karakulov, Y., Sagintayev, Z., Samakhanov, K., and Verhoef, A.: Application of semi-distributed hydrological model to simulate the lake volumes of small closed lakes in the Northern Kazakhstan, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6996, 2021.

EGU21-7004 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Development and testing of autonomous water quality monitoring system in the littoral zone of Lake Baikal 

Ilya Aslamov, Mikhail Makarov, Ruslan Gnatovsky, Maxim Chernyshov, and Konstantin Kucher

Currently, shipborne observations using CTD-type instruments are the main method for studying the hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal. They provide episodic information about the spatial distribution of temperature, mineralization and dissolved oxygen over the depth of the lake but do not provide detailed information about their temporal variability. As a rule, hydrochemical parameters are measured even more pointwise because they require sampling and subsequent analysis. To study spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem characteristics in more detail, it is necessary to combine shipborne observations with long-term measurements at coastal stations or develop a network of abyssal buoy stations equipped with various hydrophysical instruments.

The first step in this direction was the development and implementation of an automated hydrometeorological station at Limnological Institute SB RAS to organize online monitoring of hydrophysical, hydrochemical and meteorological parameters in the littoral zone of Lake Baikal. The developed station is based on an AAQ177 Rinko water quality profiler (JFE Advantech, Japan) and water level sensor developed at Limnological Institute SB RAS. Meteorological parameters are measured with a set of Vantage Pro 2 sensors (Davis Instruments, USA). The environmental parameters measured every 10 seconds are transmitted in real time via wireless communication channels to a remote Internet server. Functionally, this server is a data collection and data processing centre (data centre). Tasks of the data centre include receiving data from the network of monitoring stations, primary processing, storage and provision of the access through the WEB page.

The monitoring station was installed at the pier of Limnological Institute SB RAS in the Bolshiye Koty settlement in August 2020. The obtained comparatively high-frequency and quasi-continuous measurements of the indicated parameters allowed us for the first time to trace in detail their daily and monthly variations during the summer-winter transition period. A comparative analysis of the obtained data with the results of parallel chemical analyses of the daily samples revealed their good agreement. In general, it is noteworthy that the set of measured parameters of develop station is sufficient to assess water quality and track its changes over time.

The development of systems for online monitoring of water balance parameters, such as water temperature, solar irradiance, wind regime, chemical and biogenic elements, etc., can provide additional information to understand the causes of the recent ecological transformation of the littoral zone of Lake Baikal. Thus, we will be able to switch from discrete/one-time observations to quasi-continuous ones, which will significantly improve the forecasting of natural and anthropogenic phenomena that are hazardous for the residents and ecosystem of the Baikal natural territory, and will form the basis for the development of the solutions for their prevention or mitigation.         

The work was supported by the grant No. 075-15-2020-787 in the form of a subsidy for a Major scientific project from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia (project "Fundamentals, methods and technologies for digital monitoring and forecasting of the environmental situation on the Baikal natural territory").

How to cite: Aslamov, I., Makarov, M., Gnatovsky, R., Chernyshov, M., and Kucher, K.: Development and testing of autonomous water quality monitoring system in the littoral zone of Lake Baikal , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7004, 2021.

EGU21-7954 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Vulnerability of Swiss lakes to climate change along an altitudinal gradient

Love Råman Vinnå, Iselin Medhaug, Martin Schmid, and Damien Bouffard

Studies investigating the influence of 21st century climate warming on lakes along altitudinal gradients has been obscured by complex local atmospheric phenomena, insufficiently resolved by regional climate model grids in mountain regions. Here we used locally downscaled climate models to force the physical lake model Simstrat under three future climate scenarios to investigate the impact on 29 Swiss lakes, varying in size and located along an altitudinal gradient. Results predict significant changes linked to altitude in duration of ice-cover, and stratification. Lower and especially mid altitude lakes risk changes in mixing regimes. A large fraction of previously dimictic lakes shift to a monomictic regime under RCP8.5. Analysis further indicates that for many lakes climate related change can be limited by adhering to RCP2.6.

How to cite: Råman Vinnå, L., Medhaug, I., Schmid, M., and Bouffard, D.: Vulnerability of Swiss lakes to climate change along an altitudinal gradient, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7954, 2021.

EGU21-8051 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling

Tom Shatwell, Xiangzhen Kong, Michael Seewald, Tallent Dadi, Kurt Friese, Chenxi Mi, Bertram Boehrer, Martin Schulze, and Karsten Rinke

In temperate lakes, it is generally assumed that light rather than temperature constrains phytoplankton growth in winter. Rapid winter warming and increasing observations of winter blooms warrant more investigation of these controls. We investigated the mechanisms regulating a massive winter diatom bloom in a temperate lake. High frequency data and process-based lake modeling demonstrated that phytoplankton growth in winter was dually controlled by light and temperature, rather than by light alone. Water temperature played a further indirect role in initiating the bloom through ice-thaw, which increased light exposure. The bloom was ultimately terminated by silicon limitation and sedimentation. These mechanisms differ from those typically responsible for spring diatom blooms and contributed to the high peak biomass. Our findings show that phytoplankton growth in winter is more sensitive to temperature, and consequently to climate change, than previously assumed. This has implications for nutrient cycling and seasonal succession of lake phytoplankton communities. The present study exemplifies the strength in integrating data analysis with different temporal resolutions and lake modeling. The new lake ecological model serves as an effective tool in analyzing and predicting winter phytoplankton dynamics for temperate lakes.

How to cite: Shatwell, T., Kong, X., Seewald, M., Dadi, T., Friese, K., Mi, C., Boehrer, B., Schulze, M., and Rinke, K.: Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8051, 2021.

EGU21-8326 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Deep-mixing and deep-cooling events in Lake Garda: Simulation and Mechanisms

Bouke Biemond, Marina Amadori, Marco Toffolon, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Hans van Haren, and Henk Dijkstra

A calibrated three-dimensional numerical model (Delft3D) and in-situ observations are used to study the relation between deep water temperature and mixing in Lake Garda (Italy). A model-observation comparison indicates that the model is able to adequately capture the production of turbulent kinetic energy in the surface layer and its vertical propagation during unstratified conditions. Here, the model is used as a support to identify the main processes causing deep water cooling and deep mixing in the lake. The analysis indicated that two processes cause mixing over the entire depth. The first process is thermocline tilting due to strong and persistent winds. This is found to generate a temporary disappearance of stratification followed by vertical mixing over the entire depth. The second process is turbulent cooling, which arises as a combination of negative-buoyancy produced by surface cooling and turbulence injection from strong winds. Turbulent cooling acts when vertical temperature gradients are absent over the whole depth and cools and mixes the lake over its entire vertical. The third identified process is associated to differential cooling between the shallow southern part and the deep northern trunk. This generates the advection of cold water from the southern, colder and well-mixed basin to the norther trunk along the sloping bottom of the lake. Such differential cooling is found to be a consequence of the turbulent cooling and is not associated with mixing over the entire depth in the northern trunk. Available observations indicate that the three processes identified from the model indeed occur in Lake Garda. Long- term simulations of deep water temperature and related deep mixing appear to be very sensitive to the atmospheric forcing, whose accurate reproduction is essential for the prediction of the future occurrence of deep mixing events.

How to cite: Biemond, B., Amadori, M., Toffolon, M., Piccolroaz, S., van Haren, H., and Dijkstra, H.: Deep-mixing and deep-cooling events in Lake Garda: Simulation and Mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8326, 2021.

EGU21-8922 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Assessing the contributions to the phosphorus load delivered to lake Iseo.  

Giulia Valerio, Marco Pilotti, Michael Hupfer, and Daniele Nizzoli

Lake Iseo is a 256-m deep basin which underwent a dramatic deterioration of water quality since the 80ies, to the point that it now shows the most worrying environmental conditions of all the deep lake in northern Italy, with anoxia and 160 μg/l of total phosphorus (TP) below 100 m. In this lake, a permanent chemical stratification has established, preventing deep mixing and trapping the larger part of the incoming TP in the monimolimnion. The increase in air temperature foreseen for the Iseo watershed will further enhance the stability of the water column and further reduce the efficiency of the outflow in the removal of TP.  In order to rationally guide future choices of remediation strategies, a quantification of the main sources of external and internal TP load to the lake is thus essential.

At this purpose, in the period 2016-2019 the research project ISEO (Improving the lake Status from Eutrophy towards Oligotrophy) was developed, comprising field monitoring, laboratory and experimental activities. The contribution of the main watershed (covering about 80% of the whole drained area) was quantified as 111 tonns TP/year, by measuring the TP concentration at high temporal resolution in main tributary through a bank-side auto-analyser. These measurements revealed that about 50% of this load is generated by acute, storm-dependent events, in which high TP concentrations in particulate form are delivered to the lake over short periods. The contribution of the combined sewer overflows (CSO) was quantified as 7 tonns TP/year, by coupling an hydraulic model of the sewer system along the shore of the lake with the measurements of the nutrients discharged in wet periods through the sewer spillways of 3 representative CSOs. This load was foreseen to increase by 10% in a climate change scenario with amplified intense storms. With regard to the internal load, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) fluxes were determined across the sediment–water interface from centimetre-scale pore water SRP concentration profiles using passive pore water samplers in 3 different lake locations. The average monimolimnion-wide flux was thus established 28.7 tonns SRP/year. Interestingly, the size and speciation of the phosphorus-bearing sediment fractions at each station revealed that the available mobile TP in the sediment under the monimolimnion was only 45 tonns, so able to sustain the actual release for only ~ 1.6 years without constant renewal. These data allowed to address the current contribution of the different nutrient sources to the TP budget in lake Iseo, and to argue about their possible temporal evolution and distribution in the lake in a climate change scenario.

How to cite: Valerio, G., Pilotti, M., Hupfer, M., and Nizzoli, D.: Assessing the contributions to the phosphorus load delivered to lake Iseo.  , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8922, 2021.

EGU21-9741 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Dissolved oxygen variability in a small ice-covered lake during the spring under-ice convection

Galina Zdorovennova, Nikolay Palshin, Roman Zdorovennov, Tatiana Efremova, Sergey Bogdanov, Arkady Terzhevik, and Irina Fedorova

A decrease in the ice-period on lakes against the background of climate warming improves its oxygen regime in the cold half of the year by reducing the winter anoxia. A decrease in the thickness of the snow-ice cover can contribute to an increase in under-ice irradiation, which can provoke an earlier onset of spring under-ice convection and activation of algal blooms. Do these processes affect the oxygen content in ice-covered lakes? This study examines the variability of dissolved oxygen, water temperature, currents, chlorophyll "a" and under-ice irradiation according to field measurements carried out in 2007-2020 during spring under-ice convection in a small Lake Vendyurskoe (northwestern Russia). Field data were obtained at autonomous stations with an interval of one minute. Measurements of temperature and dissolved oxygen (RBR TR- and DO-sensors) were carried out from October to May, covering the entire ice-period, while measurements of currents (ADCP), solar radiation fluxes («Star-shaped pyranometer»  «Theodor Friderich & Co, Meteorologishe Gerate und Systeme»), and chlorophyll "a" (BBE Moldaenke) were carried out for 3-12 days from late March to the third decade of April in different years. The thickness of the snow-ice cover was also measured. Analysis of the data showed that in 2007-2020 the thickness of the snow-ice cover of Lake Vendyurskoe in spring (late March – mid-April) varied significantly from 35 to 70 cm, depending on weather conditions. The under-ice solar radiation fluxes varied from close to zero to more than 150 W/m2. The duration of spring under-ice convection ranged from two to seven weeks. Chlorophyll "a" was fairly uniformly distributed within the convective layer, even below the photic zone. We assume the dual role of convective currents in the development of subglacial plankton: ascending currents facilitate the entry of algal cells and nutrients into the photic zone, activating photosynthesis, while descending currents carry them out of it, suppressing photosynthesis. With well-developed convection, oscillations of dissolved oxygen were recorded with a daily frequency, reaching 1 mgO2/L in the upper part of the convective layer. Presumably, an increase in the content of dissolved oxygen is associated with a daytime increase in photosynthesis against the background of an increase in under-ice radiation, and a decrease is associated with the destruction of organic matter. Convective currents also affect the vertical distribution of dissolved oxygen, involving the oxygen-depleted bottom waters in mixing, which leads to a certain decrease in oxygen concentrations in the convective layer. The total amount of oxygen in the water column during the period of spring under-ice convection can increase by 10% due to the photosynthesis of phytoplankton. Oxygen fluctuations from minutes to hours were identified, which can be caused by seiche activity, the convective cells, advective transport, and the dynamics of internal waves. The results obtained in this work will contribute to a better understanding of the variability of oxygen in ice-covered lakes, caused by the total impact of biological and hydrophysical processes. The study was supported by an RFBR grant 18-05-60921.

How to cite: Zdorovennova, G., Palshin, N., Zdorovennov, R., Efremova, T., Bogdanov, S., Terzhevik, A., and Fedorova, I.: Dissolved oxygen variability in a small ice-covered lake during the spring under-ice convection, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9741, 2021.

EGU21-10186 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Multi-model projections of evaporation in a sub-tropical lake

Sofia La Fuente, Iestyn Woolway, Eleanor Jennings, Gideon Gal, Georgiy Kirillin, Tom Shatwell, Robert Ladwig, Tadhg Moore, Raoul-Marie Couture, Marianne Côté, and Love Råman Vinnå

Evaporation of surface water is critical to the basic functioning of lakes. It directly and, in some cases, substantially modifies the hydrologic, chemical, and energy budgets, making evaporation one of the most important physical controls on lake ecosystems. Predicting lake evaporation response to climate change is, therefore, of paramount importance. Most studies that simulate climate change impacts on lake evaporation have utilised only a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, the advantage of applying multiple, independently developed models (i.e., an ensemble approach), is that some of the inherent uncertainties in the individual lake models due to, for example, different model structures, can be reduced thus enabling increased robustness of historic and future projections. In this study, we present results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP) Lake Sector, where lake evaporation responses to 20th and 21st century (1901-2099) climate change has been simulated with a suite of independently developed lake models under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5). Our study focuses on Lake Kinneret (Israel), a sub-tropical monomictic lake of socioeconomic importance. Our simulations are validated during the historic period with bulk evaporation estimates calculated from high frequency meteorological and in-lake observations. Our results demonstrate that the lake models provide an accurate representation of historical variability in lake evaporation, with promising comparisons of the magnitude, timing and seasonality of evaporative water loss. Future evaporation projections at Lake Kinneret show that evaporation anomalies will increase by the end of the century. We show that multi-model projections of lake evaporation can accurately represent the historic period and hence provide reliable future projections that will be vital for water management.

How to cite: La Fuente, S., Woolway, I., Jennings, E., Gal, G., Kirillin, G., Shatwell, T., Ladwig, R., Moore, T., Couture, R.-M., Côté, M., and Råman Vinnå, L.: Multi-model projections of evaporation in a sub-tropical lake, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10186, 2021.

EGU21-10887 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Impact of climate change and industrialization on remote Lake Bolshoe Toko, Siberia 

Boris K. Biskaborn, Biljana Narancic, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Lyudmila A. Pestryakova, Peter G. Appleby, Gayane T. Piliposian, and Bernhard Diekmann

To test if recent climate change and pollution affected remote lake ecosystems without direct human influence, we used paleolimnological methods on lake sediments from a large, prestine, and deep lake in Yakutia, Russia. We compared diatoms and sediment-geochemistry from before and after the onset of industrialization in the mid-nineteenth century, at water depths between 12.1 and 68.3 m in Lake Bolshoe Toko. We analyzed diatom species changes and geochemical changes including mercury concentrations. Chronologies were established using 210Pb and 137Cs revealing sedimentation rates between 0.018 and 0.033 cm y-1 at shallow- and deep-water sites, respectively. Increase in light planktonic diatoms (Cyclotella) and decrease in heavily silicified euplanktonic Aulacoseira through time at deep-water sites can be related to warming air temperatures and shorter periods of lake-ice cover, causing pronounced thermal stratification. Diatom beta diversity changed only significantly in shallow-water communities which can be related to the development of new habitats with macrophyte growth. Mercury concentrations increased by a factor of 1.6 as a result of atmospheric fallout. Increases in the chrysophyte Mallomonas indicates a trend towards acidification. We conclude that also remote boreal lakes are susceptible to human-induced long-distance pollution and recent climate change.

How to cite: Biskaborn, B. K., Narancic, B., Stoof-Leichsenring, K. R., Pestryakova, L. A., Appleby, P. G., Piliposian, G. T., and Diekmann, B.: Impact of climate change and industrialization on remote Lake Bolshoe Toko, Siberia , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10887, 2021.

EGU21-11877 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Quantification of the total methane emission from valley artificial reservoir – combination of measurements and process-based modelling

Viktor Lomov, Victor Stepanenko, Maria Grechushnikova, and Irina Repina

In a context of global warming an important objective is an estimation of green-house gases fluxes into the atmosphere from different sources. Methane is a crucial green-house gas in the atmosphere with specific global warming potential 28 times larger than that of carbon dioxide. Our research is focused on estimation of methane emission from artificial Mozhaysk valley reservoir, located in Russia, Moscow region. The main goal of the study is to quantify the methane emission by two approaches – measuring the fluxes in situ on the reservoir and modelling the methane emission by 1D hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model. Combination of these methods provides more reliable result compared to using them separately. We expect, that firstly tested on Mozhaysk reservoir this approach can be applied to other artificial reservoirs, which is especially important for estimating carbon footprint of hydro energetics. The measurements on Mozhaysk reservoir have been carried since 2015. The patterns of spatial-temporal variability of methane flux are demonstrated. The highest values of methane emission during open-water period are typically observed in the end of summer, at the initiation of autumnal convective mixing. In this period, methane flux into the atmosphere can reach 350 – 390 mgC-CH4*m-2*d-1. High values of methane flux, up to 400 mgC-CH4*m-2*d-1, were observed after the storm events. As to spatial flux distribution, the highest values of methane emission were observed in the middle part of the reservoir and in shallow areas inhabited by macrophytes plants. The 1D hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model LAKE simulated high variability of methane flux into the atmosphere in the annual cycle. According to modeling results, the main pathway of methane into the atmosphere is ebullition, constituting more than 95% in total methane evasion into the atmosphere. The highest values of CH4 flux according to model results take place in the beginning of spring period, after the ice-off, and during the mixing events. Modelling results for methane emission demonstrate satisfactory agreement to in situ measurements – the average annual methane emission during 5 years is 430 tons of C-CH4 per year according to observation, and 380 tons of C-CH4 per year in model simulations.

The work is supported by Russia`s President Council of Grants for Young Scientists, grant No. MD 1850.2020.5.

How to cite: Lomov, V., Stepanenko, V., Grechushnikova, M., and Repina, I.: Quantification of the total methane emission from valley artificial reservoir – combination of measurements and process-based modelling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11877, 2021.

EGU21-12404 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

SIMILE: An integrated monitoring system to understand, protect and manage sub-alpine lakes and their ecosystem

Massimiliano Cannata, Daniele Strigaro, Fabio Lepori, Camilla Capelli, Mauro Veronesi, Michela Rogora, Andrea Lami, and Maria Brovelli

Lakes are a fundamental resource for the Insubric region (cross-border area that includes Ticino, North Lombardy and west Piedmont regions). Therefore the quality of their waters must be protected from the risks caused by the increased anthropogenic pressure and climate change. The main objective of the interreg project named SIMILE (https://interreg-italiasvizzera.eu/database_progetti/simile/) is to support decision making in the definition of management policies through an advanced information system based on data obtained from innovative monitoring systems (automatic, diversified, cost-effective and with high spatial and temporal resolution). The information system will also facilitate the identification of possible critical issues understanding the specific causes in a timely manner by using a common methodology across Switzerland and Italy: specifically for Lake Lugano, Lake Maggiore and Lake Como. The project aims at capitalizing and sharing the experiences of the project partners in the field of monitoring and management of water resources in the project area, in particular in the context of the CIPAIS programs (IT-CH international water protection commission). The information system, fully open, is designed to offer an effective, lowcost and sustainable solution that can be maintained by the project partners beyond the end of the project. From a scientific and technical point of view the project is based on the combination of advanced automatic and continuous observation systems, high resolution remote sensing data processing, citizen science and ecological and physical models. In this presentation we will discuss experiences gained from the deployment of cost-effective monitoring platform and open technologies used for data colection, archive, processing and dissemination.

How to cite: Cannata, M., Strigaro, D., Lepori, F., Capelli, C., Veronesi, M., Rogora, M., Lami, A., and Brovelli, M.: SIMILE: An integrated monitoring system to understand, protect and manage sub-alpine lakes and their ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12404, 2021.

EGU21-12509 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Investigating the effectiveness of bubble-plume destratification systems in a temperate, shallow, drinking water reservoir

Jack Waterhouse, Thomas Kjeldsen, and Lee Bryant

Thermal destratification of lakes and reservoirs is a primary control on dissolved-oxygen levels below the thermocline. In such waterbodies, internal biogeochemical processes are often controlled by a complex set of oxygen-controlled forcing mechanisms. Therefore, preventing stratification by artificial processes has long been an important tool in maintaining dissolved oxygen concentrations and corresponding water quality and ecosystem health in drinking water reservoirs. Blagdon Lake in Somerset, SW England is a medium-size (1.8km2), shallow depth (max: 13.1m) drinking water reservoir. An extensive 6-month field campaign was undertaken in the summer of 2019 at the reservoir, measuring depth profiles of dissolved oxygen, turbidity, conductivity, temperature and pH using an EXO3 multiparameter sonde and a CastAway® CTD. In addition, two thermistor chains were permanently installed measuring temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations using Onset TidbiT v2 loggers (1m depth intervals) through the water column at 30-minute temporal resolution and a miniDOT oxygen logger at the sediment-water interface respectively. These thermistor chains collected data from summer 2019 – autumn 2020. The data from this field campaign were analysed to investigate the effectiveness of the installed bubble-plume destratification system present at Blagdon Lake, SW England. Similar systems are used in 66% of UK reservoirs employing artificial mixing infrastructure, though very little has been published evaluating their effectiveness in such temperate, shallow, drinking water reservoirs. Initial analysis of the results indicates that the bubble-plume system, nor wind shear is effectively preventing spring/summer destratification for long periods, and that neither are the main factor controlling thermal stratification in Blagdon Lake. The data provides a unique opportunity to directly assess the impact of bubble-plume aerators and their effectiveness at thermal destratification to control dissolved oxygen and water quality in temperate, shallow water bodies.

How to cite: Waterhouse, J., Kjeldsen, T., and Bryant, L.: Investigating the effectiveness of bubble-plume destratification systems in a temperate, shallow, drinking water reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12509, 2021.

EGU21-12853 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Wind-driven interbasin exchange and hypolimnetic upwelling during wintertime in a large, deep lake (Lake Geneva)

Rafael S. Reiss, Ulrich Lemmin, and D. Andrew Barry

Distinct sub-basins and large embayments are a ubiquitous feature of many lakes. Horizontal gradients in water quality between basins can result from a number of processes. For example, different seasonal mixing regimes between basins with different maximum depths can produce biochemical gradients between their hypolimnia. Consequently, interbasin exchange can be an important process with significant ecological consequences.

Combining field observations, 3D hydrodynamic modeling, and model-based Lagrangian particle tracking, we investigated wind-driven interbasin exchange between the shallow Petit Lac (max. depth 75 m) and deep Grand Lac (max. depth 309 m) basins of Lake Geneva, Western Europe’s largest lake, during early winter. In addition to CTD casts conducted in the Petit Lac, several ADCP and thermistor chain moorings were deployed at the confluence between the two basins during the winter 2018/2019.

Following a strong northeast-bound, along-axis wind event lasting from 7 to 10 December 2018, a two-layer flow pattern established at the confluence: epilimnetic water from the Petit Lac was pushed by the wind into the Grand Lac and was compensated for by a bottom inflow of deep hypolimnetic waters from the Grand Lac into the Petit Lac. Consequently, temperatures in the lower part of the water column gradually decreased at all moorings, with the lowest temperatures corresponding to values found at 180 m depth, as indicated by full-depth temperature profiles taken in November and December 2018.

For approximately 3.5 days, deep Grand Lac water was continuously transported into the Petit Lac, with observed inflowing current velocities near the bottom exceeding 27 cm s-1. Approximately 1.5 d after the wind subsided, the current patterns at the confluence reversed and the previously upwelled Grand Lac water was drained again from the Petit Lac in a bottom-hugging current with measured velocities reaching 19 cm s -1.

The current and temperature patterns at the confluence were well represented by a 3D hydrodynamic model (MITgcm). Model-based particle tracking confirmed the deep origin of the upwelled Grand Lac waters. Furthermore, it revealed that the interbasin upwelling event effectively formed a current loop, during which, over the course of more than one week, hypolimnetic water from below 150 m depth first upwelled into the Petit Lac, intruding approximately 10 km into the shallow basin, and subsequently descended back into the Grand Lac hypolimnion. Moreover, low model-based gradient Richardson numbers and temperature inversions observed in the CTD profiles indicate turbulent mixing between the deep, upwelled Grand Lac waters and the “fresher,” i.e., better quality Petit Lac waters.

Our field observations and modeling results show that enhanced wind-driven interbasin exchange and deep hypolimnetic upwelling between the shallow Petit Lac and deep Grand Lac basins of Lake Geneva frequently occur during early winter. Furthermore, our results suggest that these hypolimnetic interbasin upwelling events may present a potentially important mechanism for hypolimnetic-epilimnetic exchange and deep-water renewal in Lake Geneva and possibly in other deep multi-basin lakes under similar wind conditions; especially, when considering the expected weakening of the classical deep convective cooling during wintertime due to climate change effects.

How to cite: Reiss, R. S., Lemmin, U., and Barry, D. A.: Wind-driven interbasin exchange and hypolimnetic upwelling during wintertime in a large, deep lake (Lake Geneva), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12853, 2021.

EGU21-12937 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

Forty years record of the metalimnetic oxygen minimum in Germany’s largest drinking water reservoir

Michael Seewald, Chenxi Mi, Jan Donner, and Karsten Rinke

Dissolved oxygen is a central player in water quality management of lakes and reservoirs. Low levels or absence of oxygen poses a major problem, especially in drinking water reservoirs. Usually, the focus lies on the oxygen depletion in deep water. However, in many stably stratified water bodies, significant oxygen deficits have been documented in the metalimnion, even in lakes of low trophic state. This phenomenon is known as metalimnetic oxygen minimum (MOM) and the causes of MOM have been discussed controversially. The Rappbode Dam, Germany's largest drinking water reservoir, forms a MOM every year and long-term observations indicate that the oxygen deficit may have increased in recent years. Although the data cover a long period (40 years), they are very heterogeneous in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. Our study aims at systematically analysing the available data to characterize the interannual development of the MOM with respect to existing trends and to identify relevant environmental and management factors. The results confirm increasing surfacewater temperatures and unchanged deepwater temperatures in summer (Mai to October) as well as an increasingly prolonged summer stratification in the course of global warming. In contrast to the previous working hypothesis, increasing stratification duration is not correlated with the significantly increasing (p 0.009; τ -0.26) annual maximum intensity of the MOM.

How to cite: Seewald, M., Mi, C., Donner, J., and Rinke, K.: Forty years record of the metalimnetic oxygen minimum in Germany’s largest drinking water reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12937, 2021.

EGU21-13049 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Modeling evaporation from northern waterbodies, the case of an 85-km2 reservoir

Habiba Kallel, Murray Mackay, Antoine Thiboult, Daniel Nadeau, and François Anctil

Freshwater bodies represent 9% of Canada’s total land area, with more than half of these having a surface area smaller than 100 km2. Taking into account the interactions between lakes and the atmosphere in meteorological models is crucial, considering the marked differences with the surrounding land masses (low albedo, unlimited source of water, high thermal capacity, etc.). Open water evaporation, in particular, is often a challenge because of its intangible nature and the scarcity of direct observations. This project focuses on the modeling of the surface energy budget of a reservoir located in the boreal biome of eastern Canada, with an emphasis on the evaporation. Observations are available for the 85-km2 La Romaine 2 hydroelectric reservoir (50.7°N, 63.2°W), where two micrometeorological towers were deployed: one operated yearlong on the shore and one operated on a floating deck during ice-free conditions. Modeling resorts to the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional land surface model designed to integrate the lake-atmosphere fluxes into meteorological models. The model also simulates the thermal regime of the water body, including ice formation. Lastly, the model can be used for climate and weather prediction, which may be a useful for reservoir management. Comparison of field observations and simulations confirms the CSLM ability to reproduce the turbulent fluxes and the temperature behavior of the reservoir except for some specific periods, in particular the ice breakups and freeze-ups. The model somehow underestimates the water temperature resulting in a premature depletion of the lake heat storage in autumn. It also overreacts to high wind episodes.

How to cite: Kallel, H., Mackay, M., Thiboult, A., Nadeau, D., and Anctil, F.: Modeling evaporation from northern waterbodies, the case of an 85-km2 reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13049, 2021.

Lake and reservoir water quality is impacted greatly by the input of momentum, heat, oxygen, sediment, nutrients and contaminants delivered to them by riverine inflows. When such an inflow is negatively buoyant, it will plunge upon contact with the receiving ambient water and form a gravity-driven current near the bed (density current). If such a current is sediment-laden, its bulk density can be higher than that of the surrounding ambient water, even if its carrying fluid has a density lower than that of the surrounding ambient water. After sufficient sediment particles have settled however, the buoyancy of the current can reverse and lead to the plume rising up from the bed, a process referred to as lofting. In a stratified environment, the river plume may then find its way into a layer of neutral buoyancy to form an intermediate current (interflow). A deeper understanding of the wide range of hydrodynamic processes related to the transitions from open-channel inflow to underflow (plunging) and from underflow to interflow (lofting) is crucial in predicting the fate of all components introduced into the lake or reservoir by the inflow.

Field measurements of the plunging inflow of the negatively buoyant Rhône River into Lake Geneva (Switzerland/France) are presented. A combination of a vessel-mounted ADCP and remote sensing cameras was used to capture the three-dimensional flow field of the plunging and lofting transition zones over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

In the plunge zone, the ADCP measurements show that the inflowing river water undergoes a lateral (perpendicular to its downstream direction) slumping movement, caused by its density surplus compared to the ambient lake water and the resulting baroclinic vorticity production. This effect is also visible in the remote sensing images in the form of a distinct plume of sediment-rich water with a triangular shape leading away from the river mouth in the downstream direction towards a sharp tip. A wide range of vortical structures, which most likely impact the amount of mixing taking place, is also visible at the surface in the plunging zone.

In the lofting zone, the ADCP measurements show that the underflow undergoes a lofting movement at its edges. This is most likely caused by a higher sedimentation rate due to the lower velocities at the underflow edges and leads to a part of the underflow peeling off and forming an interflow, while the higher velocity core of the underflow continues following the bed. Here, the baroclinic vorticity production works in the opposite direction as that in the plunge zone. Further downstream, as more particles have settled and the surrounding ambient water has become denser, the remaining underflow also undergoes a lofting motion. The remnants of these lofting processes show in the remote sensing images as intermittent ‘boils’ of sediment rich water reaching the surface and traces of surface layer leakage.

How to cite: Thorez, S., Blanckaert, K., Lemmin, U., and Barry, D. A.: From inflow to interflow, through plunging and lofting: uncovering the dominant flow processes of a sediment-rich negatively buoyant river inflow into a stratified lake, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13214, 2021.

EGU21-13335 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

On the numerical study of thermohydrodynamics and biochemistry of inland water bodies

Daria Gladskikh, Evgeny Mortikov, and Victor Stepanenko

The study of thermodynamic and biochemical processes of inland water objects using one- and three-dimensional RANS numerical models was carried out both for idealized water bodies and using measurements data. The need to take into account seiche oscillations to correctly reproduce the deepening of the upper mixed layer in one-dimensional (vertical) models is demonstrated. We considered the one-dimensional LAKE model [1] and the three-dimensional model [2, 3, 4] developed at the Research Computing Center of Moscow State University on the basis of a hydrodynamic code combining DNS/LES/RANS approaches for calculating geophysical turbulent flows. The three-dimensional model was supplemented by the equations for calculating biochemical substances by analogy with the one-dimensional biochemistry equations used in the LAKE model. The effect of mixing processes on the distribution of concentration of greenhouse gases, in particular, methane and oxygen, was studied.

The work was supported by grants of the RF President’s Grant for Young Scientists (MK-1867.2020.5, MD-1850.2020.5) and by the RFBR (19-05-00249, 20-05-00776). 

1. Stepanenko V., Mammarella I., Ojala A., Miettinen H., Lykosov V., Timo V. LAKE 2.0: a model for temperature, methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen dynamics in lakes // Geoscientific Model Development. 2016. V. 9(5). P. 1977–2006.
2. Mortikov E.V., Glazunov A.V., Lykosov V.N. Numerical study of plane Couette flow: turbulence statistics and the structure of pressure-strain correlations // Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. 2019. 34(2). P. 119-132.
3. Mortikov, E.V. Numerical simulation of the motion of an ice keel in stratified flow // Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 2016. V. 52. P. 108-115.
4. Gladskikh D.S., Stepanenko V.M., Mortikov E.V. On the influence of the horizontal dimensions of inland waters on the thickness of the upper mixed layer // Water Resourses. 2021.V. 45, 9 pages. (in press) 

How to cite: Gladskikh, D., Mortikov, E., and Stepanenko, V.: On the numerical study of thermohydrodynamics and biochemistry of inland water bodies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13335, 2021.

EGU21-14141 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10

Comparison of 1D and 3D hydrodynamic models on the assessement of climate change scenarios impact over a small tropical lake

Barbara Duarte, Lais Amorim, José Rodolfo Martins, and José Carlos Bernardino

Lakes and reservoirs are standing surface water bodies that provide several environmental services and anthropic uses. As driving forces, climate conditions, sediment loads and pollutants influence the hydrodynamic behaviour of lakes, affecting the thermal stratification and mixing regime patterns that play expressive roles in the water quality condition. Therefore, the analysis of climate change scenarios allows the planning and implementation of preventive and mitigative actions. Mathematical modelling can simulate the thermal regime of lakes and reservoirs, considering different boundary conditions. Three-dimensions models are often used to better assess the changes on these environments, however, the extensive set of information required, along with its elevated processing parameters, can determine the selection of simpler models for long periods simulations, provided that the results accuracy remains appropriated. This paper intends to evaluate the differences and similarities between a one-dimension (GLM) and a three-dimensions (DELFT3D) transport models, used to assess the impacts of different climate scenarios on the thermal regime of a small lake. The case study was conducted on the Hedberg Dam, located about 90 km from Sao Paulo city, Brazil. It is a 0,2 km²-4.5m depth pond, built in the beginnings of the 19th century. Its hydrological catchment area is partially protected, with some sparse urban occupations. Both models used morphology characteristics, atmospheric variables and flow as input data. The calibration and validation were performed using water thermal profiles from high-frequency sensor data, observed from 2016 to 2018. Two climate change scenarios, optimistic and pessimistic, based on Eta Regional Climate Model, were simulated considering changes in radiation, air temperature, wind, precipitation and flow. Both results indicate changes in the thermal profiles regime, with increasing occurrence of mixing events and variations on the stratification patterns. However, differences can be noted in the water balance and in the thermal profiles results.

How to cite: Duarte, B., Amorim, L., Martins, J. R., and Bernardino, J. C.: Comparison of 1D and 3D hydrodynamic models on the assessement of climate change scenarios impact over a small tropical lake, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14141, 2021.

EGU21-15616 | vPICO presentations | HS10.10 | Highlight

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