Presentation type:
HS – Hydrological Sciences

EGU24-9079 | Orals | MAL23-HS | Henry Darcy Medal Lecture

A view into the richness of processes in porous media 

Alberto Guadagnini

Flow and transport scenarios taking place in porous media are characterized by a staggering range of physical, chemical, and biological processes. The dynamics associated with these are distributed across an astonishingly wide range of (spatial and temporal) scales, thus contributing to the challenges related to their observation and description. Direct observation and attempts to a quantitative characterization of these processes indicate that they are prone to multiple interpretations, as rendered through various conceptual and mathematical formulations and their parameterization. Even the outcomes of apparently straightforward models of flow (or chemical transport) can surprise us! As complexity related to the formulation and parametrization of processes and their feedbacks increases, so does the need to establish approaches enabling us to quantify the effect of various types of uncertainty on target quantities of interest. For example, tackling the often strong (spatial) heterogeneity of parameters embedded in a model and coping with our limited ability to describe all of the relevant details of the porous medium hosting processes of interest poses significant challenges. In this broad context, I will initiate a discussion about uncertainties related to process formulation and parametrization and the way they can propagate to model outputs such as, e.g., water availability, solute concentrations, source protection regions, or reaction rates. The discussion is set in a framework encompassing experimental studies, characterization of porous media heterogeneity, sensitivity analysis for model diagnosis, and stochastic inverse modeling. Sensitivity analyses approaches are tackled with a focus on their ability to identify the relative importance of processes (and associated parameters) embedded in a model and driving system behavior. The ensuing results are then employed to inform model calibration under uncertainty. All of these aspects are exemplified through the analysis of settings related to three distinct scales. These comprise a regional scale complex aquifer system subject to diverse forcings, a laboratory scale scenario involving dynamics of pharmaceuticals in a porous medium, and direct observations of processes acting at nanoscales and governing material fluxes associated with chemical weathering related to rock dissolution. While these systems are associated with very different scales (and processes), their analysis is unified through the use of stochastic approaches sharing common traits and leading to similar workflows for uncertainty quantification.

How to cite: Guadagnini, A.: A view into the richness of processes in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9079, 2024.

EGU24-6307 | Orals | MAL24-HS | John Dalton Medal Lecture

How far can we go in global flood inundation modelling? 

Paul Bates

Over the last fifteen years, hydrodynamic modelling has, like so many branches of hydrology, made the leap from local to global scales.  Where once we may have applied our models to single river reaches a few 10s of kilometres in length, we can now build and execute models at ~30m spatial resolution over the entire terrestrial land surface.  In turn, this has allowed us to address scientific and practical questions that were hitherto impossible to answer.  For example, global inundation modelling can help us understand and quantify large scale hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and many questions in flood risk management, for example decisions about future government spending on flood defences, analysing the solvency of flood insurance portfolios under extreme conditions, or determining climate change impacts, require predictions of flood risk at national, continental, or even global scales.

This paper therefore discusses the scientific developments that were needed to make this local-to-global transition possible and outlines what the latest generation of global inundation models now can (and cannot) do.  Finally, the paper looks at current limits to inundation modelling in terms of boundary conditions, flood defence data and model validation and considers the prospects for further improvements in model skill using the data from recently launched and forthcoming satellite missions such as SWOT and NISAR.

How to cite: Bates, P.: How far can we go in global flood inundation modelling?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6307, 2024.

Human-water feedbacks have been increasingly studied in the last decades, motivating the foundation of new disciplines such as socio-hydrology and, in general, enhanced interest toward conceptualization and modelling of the spatial and temporal dynamics of human-water systems. With anthropogenic activities being widely recognized as a major driver of global change and the human population being increasingly exposed to hydroclimatic extreme events, human systems are now at the forefront of the water cycle. Yet, human preferences, behaviors, and decisions in relation to water systems - including water usage dynamics, adoption of precautionary measures against climate extremes, and adaptation of urban landscapes - are often modelled based on behavioral or economic theories, or derived from small-scale samples. This often leads to heterogeneous results, which are often case-specific, or lack validation against real-world observations.

The availability of increasingly fine-resolution data from distributed sensors and databases (e.g., water consumption data from intelligent meters, flood insurance adoption records at the household level, and socio-demographic data) and earth observations (e.g., aerial and satellite imagery) provides us with an empirical basis to model heterogeneous individual and societal behavioral patterns, along with their determinants.

In my research, I strive to develop multi-disciplinary data-driven behavioral modelling approaches that bridge hydrologic/hydraulic sciences, informatics, economics, and systems engineering and harness information from multi-scale human data and earth observations and the power of data analytics and machine learning to better understand, model, and characterize human behaviors in coupled human-water systems. In this talk, I will first provide an overview of recent advances in descriptive behavioral modelling in human-water systems, with a focus on household-to-continental scale modelling of residential water consumption patterns and adoption of household flood insurance. Second, I will elaborate on modelling challenges that are motivating ongoing research related to machine learning-based behavioral models, including model explainability, data and computational requirements, generalization and scalability, and the influence of data resolution in time and space. Finally, I will discuss how developing descriptive models that learn human behaviors retrospectively can be used to inform forecasting tasks and formulate policy-relevant recommendations to shape future societal adaptation to climate change. Implications span from informing the design of feedback-based digital user engagement in pursuit of water conservation, to fostering proactive climate adaptation, addressing societal inequalities and heterogeneous water access and affordability conditions, or evaluating incentive programs and policies for sustainable urban development.

How to cite: Cominola, A.: Learning from the past to shape the future. Harnessing multi-scale human data and earth observations to foster sustainable water usage and societal adaptation to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19445, 2024.

HS1.1 – Hydrology in Climate Change

EGU24-5377 | Orals | HS1.1.1

Modelling future water resources in interconnected water systems: are catchment scales relevant? 

Gemma Coxon, Anna Murgatroyd, Francesca Pianosi, Saskia Salwey, Doris Wendt, and Yanchen Zheng

Freshwater resources are increasingly under threat from climate change and increasing water demand. Catchment-scale hydrological models generate hydrological projections that underpin the management and sustainability of future water resources. Yet, water systems are increasingly interconnected across catchment boundaries through nationally strategic water supply schemes that aim to ensure a reliable supply of water in a changing climate.

In this presentation, we draw on a range of studies from across Great Britain to discuss the challenges and complexities of hydrological modelling for future water resources management from catchment to national scales. We focus on interconnected water systems including catchments impacted by (1) inter-catchment groundwater flows and (2) water transfers via reservoirs, abstractions and wastewater treatment plants. For the human-impacted catchments, we identify where and when representing human interactions are important for robust streamflow projections. As water systems become more interconnected in space and time, we highlight the need to move beyond the catchment scale for future water resources management.

How to cite: Coxon, G., Murgatroyd, A., Pianosi, F., Salwey, S., Wendt, D., and Zheng, Y.: Modelling future water resources in interconnected water systems: are catchment scales relevant?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5377, 2024.

EGU24-6684 | Orals | HS1.1.1 | Highlight

The (ir)relevance of plot- and hillslope scale processes for catchment runoff 

Ilja van Meerveld

Experimental field studies are crucial to understanding hydrological processes. Studies at the plot-, hillslope-, or small catchment-scales have helped us to understand how water flows toward the stream network of larger catchments. However, little of this detailed knowledge is used in hydrological models because the calibration of simple models already leads to good runoff simulations. Furthermore, not all hillslope locations contribute equally to catchment runoff and in some cases, hillslopes or specific hillslope locations may seem irrelevant for the catchment scale runoff response, at least until a certain threshold is crossed. It is essential to consider these thresholds because climate or land use change may cause them to be passed more frequently in the future, so models based on historic runoff data might no longer accurately predict the catchment runoff response. In this talk, I will provide examples of such thresholds and discuss the need to consider connectivity between landscape elements when interpreting the streamflow or stream chemistry response at the catchment scale. In doing so, I will highlight the need to understand hydrological processes at the plot and hillslope scales for predicting catchment-scale runoff, even if these processes may seem irrelevant at first.

How to cite: van Meerveld, I.: The (ir)relevance of plot- and hillslope scale processes for catchment runoff, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6684, 2024.

Contrary to widespread belief, it is well known since ancient Greece that rivers flow most of the time because they receive groundwater discharge. However, it is less widely known that rivers are losing their base flow because of aquifer overexploitation and, even less, the intimate link between ground and surface water processes. I review the processes that control water quality, from pore scale biofilms to hyporheic exchange, and runoff generation. While there is a broad understanding of these processes, I argue that the way they are represented in models is poor. As a result, water management and regulations tend to ignore them. Specifically, managed aquifer recharge is currently hindered by EU regulations. Yet, it remains the only practical management strategy to reverse groundwater (and, thus, the loss of river base flow and ecosystem services). I find it paradoxical that, while a lot of effort is devoted to global "accounting", we are deemphasizing the river basin scale, within which most water management relevant processes occur (ironically, the only management relevant trans-basin processes, i.e., the recycling of moisture, is equally ignored). I conclude for a renewal od the old call for close interaction between surface and groundwater hydrologists.

How to cite: Carrera, J.: From the pore to the catchment-scale: a discussion of groundwater processes and modelling, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20252, 2024.

Groundwater is the largest accessible freshwater resource on earth and is critical for people and the environment. In many regions around the world, sectoral water demands exceed the availability of surface water and groundwater is being pumped. Irrigation stands out as the largest groundwater user worldwide, with ca. 40% of current irrigated agriculture relying on groundwater. In many heavily irrigated regions, groundwater abstractions surpass replenishment, resulting in often severely declining groundwater levels. This leads to groundwater depletion, reduced streamflow, drying of wells and springs, land subsidence, saltwater intrusion, and deteriorating surface water quality due to reduced pollutant dilution.

In the coming decades, global food demands will increase, driven by a growing world population and socio-economic development. A major challenge lies ahead in how to sustainably ensure sufficient regionally and globally available food. It is inevitable that agriculture will increasingly rely on groundwater to support the required increase in crop production, but the extent to which this groundwater can be extracted sustainably from a quantity and quality perspective is still largely unknown.

In this talk, the latest advances in our model development will be presented, focussing specifically on linking groundwater dynamics, surface water interactions, and crop production at both global and regional scales. A specific focus lies on connecting global and regional scales and approaches to better understand the impacts and trade-offs related to global change. In addition, attention will be given to the development of regionally relevant adaptation strategies for sustainable groundwater use worldwide. 

How to cite: de Graaf, I.: Navigating global challenges: development and application of a coupled groundwater and crop growth model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20946, 2024.

EGU24-618 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrological response of Tawa Basin for Sustainable Water Management  

Pragya Badika, Akash Singh Raghuvanshi, and Ankit Agarwal

Sustainable water resources planning and management is critical in fulfilling the demands of present and future generation in limiting environment. River basins plays a crucial role in balanced and responsible management strategies, as they frequently serve vital role in freshwater supply, irrigation, hydropower generation, industrialization and to support a balance ecosystem. In the era of climate change and adverse environmental impacts, it is required to prioritize assessment for sustainable development and management of river basins to ensure a resilient water system. In this study, the Tawa Basin has been selected which is one of the important tributary of Narmada Basin and has a paramount importance in irrigation and hydropower generation. From a hydrological standpoint, basin response to climate change is critical for analysing hydrological extremes and developing long-term plans and strategies for water-related activities and policies. The basin experiences significant rainfall fluctuation throughout the year, particularly during the monsoon season (June to September) which adversely influence the runoff generation in the basin and consequently, the likelihood of catastrophic occurrences. However, the hydrological response of Tawa basin to climate change has been rarely investigated under socio-economic pathways. Present work sought to evaluate the hydrological response of Tawa basin under changing climate using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) scenarios. In this study, a comparative assessment has been done with the application of two conceptual lumped hydrological model to ensure the robustness of the Hydrological model. For this, the MIKE 11 NAM and GR4J model has been set up for period of 2009 to 2021. The model is calibrated at the downstream of the Tawa reservoir using the water balance at reservoir scale. For climate change assessment, the latest CMIP6 outputs has been incorporated for two shared socio-economic pathways; SSP2-45 and SSP5-85 for near (2040-2060) and far (2070-2100) future. In addition, evaluation was performed using the individual and ensemble output of climate models to ensure the uncertainty in hydrological responses. The findings of this study are critical for understanding how climate change will alter the hydrology of the Tawa River Basin. This research might lead to the adoption of a strategic strategy for sustainable water resources and improved societal resilience to climate change in the Tawa River Basin.

How to cite: Badika, P., Raghuvanshi, A. S., and Agarwal, A.: Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrological response of Tawa Basin for Sustainable Water Management , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-618, 2024.

EGU24-858 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Addressing Nonstationarity in Extreme Rainfall Patterns: A Case Study on Indian Cities 

Ankush Ankush, Narendra Kumar Goel, and Vinnarasi Rajendran

The evolving landscape of extreme rainfall patterns, triggered by climate change and global warming, introduces nonstationary behavior, challenging conventional hydrologic design assumptions rooted in stationarity. This study addresses this paradigm shift by modeling distribution parameters with covariates, utilizing a 70-year high-resolution IMD gridded dataset to extract and model extreme annual rainfall across diverse Indian cities. Drawing on previous research and goodness-of-fit tests that favor the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for modeling extremes, the study incorporates various indices, including Nino3.4, dipole mode index, global and local temperature and time, to characterize nonstationarity in extreme annual rainfall, leveraging climate cycles and global warming trends. Performance assessment utilizes the Akaike information criterion and Likelihood ratio test, while quantile reliability is scrutinized through confidence intervals (CIs). The findings uncover widespread nonstationary trends in most grid points, resulting in broader CIs for estimated quantiles, return periods, and covariates in fitted models. Despite the broader confidence bands associated with nonstationary conditions, indicating higher uncertainty, the results affirm a nonstationary pattern in rainfall extremes. Consequently, the study underscores the imperative to develop nonstationary models that effectively capture these dynamic trends with reduced uncertainty.

How to cite: Ankush, A., Goel, N. K., and Rajendran, V.: Addressing Nonstationarity in Extreme Rainfall Patterns: A Case Study on Indian Cities, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-858, 2024.

In the Slovakia for assessment of climate change is used as references period hydrological years 1981 - 2010. Although the first observations in groundwater began in 1956, the monitoring network was not dense enough and the objects were not evenly distributed in Slovakia. Even the expansion of monitoring network in the 1970s was not enough to obtain longer, 30-year time series. Based on the new reference period 1991 - 2020 recommended by the World Meteorological Organization WMO, this period was also evaluated from the point of view of groundwater. The aim of the contribution was to compare reference periods 1981 – 2010 and 1991 - 2020 and their changes in the groundwater in Slovakia. These two reference periods were compared with each other based on the ratio values of long-term time series of minimum and average values of the groundwater level and springs yield. The new reference period 1991 - 2020 and period 1981 - 2010 were also evaluated by trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The Mann-Kendall statistical test was use to assess whether a set of data values is increasing or decreasing over time and whether the trend in either direction is statistically significant. The Mann-Kendall test does not assess the magnitude of change. The advantage of this test is, that it is not affected by the current distribution of the data and at the same time is less sensitive to extreme values in the time series.

                The long-term average values of the groundwater level and the springs yield for the period 1991 - 2020 compared to 1981 - 2010 were lower in the outer West and Northwest, in the Northern parts of Slovakia, in the region of central Slovakia, and in the Southeast and outer East. Based on the comparison of the long-term minimum values of the compared periods, the values were steady in compared to the previous period at most of the evaluated objects.

                When evaluating the trends of long-term averages for the period 1991 - 2022, significant decreases in the average groundwater level and springs yield were detected in the outer West and Northwest, in the strip from Northern to central Slovakia, in the North of Eastern Slovakia, and in the Southeast and outer east of the territory. When evaluating the trends of long-term minima for the period of hydrological years 1991 - 2022, the situation was similar to the evaluation of long-term averages.

                By comparing the period of 30 annual series 1991 - 2020 to the period 1981 - 2010 based on the evaluated ratio values, we did not notice significant deviations.

 

Keywords: groundwater, spring yield, references periods

How to cite: Kurejova Stojkovova, M. and Slivova, V.: Comparison of the reference periods of the hydrological years 1981 - 2010 and 1991 - 2020 in groundwater in Slovakia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1424, 2024.

EGU24-1920 | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Future drought changes in Australia from multiple projections 

Anna Ukkola, Elisabeth Vogel, Steven Thomas, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Andy Pitman, and Gab Abramowitz

Australia suffers from frequent droughts but future drought changes have remained stubbornly uncertain over the continent, with CMIP projections indicating low model agreement across most regions. Here we constrain future changes in drought over Australia by combining a hierarchy of projections from coupled global and regional climate models and several offline hydrological models that are widely employed in Australia. We analyse changes across multiple types of droughts (meteorological, hydrological and agricultural) to understand robustness of trends across drought types. Using this multi-projections approach, we identify robust future increases in drought across key agricultural and densely populated regions that are consistent across different drought types. Our study demonstrates value in analysing multiple projections together to build confidence in future changes in other regions of the world where model uncertainty is high.

How to cite: Ukkola, A., Vogel, E., Thomas, S., Bende-Michl, U., Pitman, A., and Abramowitz, G.: Future drought changes in Australia from multiple projections, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1920, 2024.

The change of groundwater storage (GWS) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is vital for water resources management and regional sustainability, but its estimation has large uncertainty due to insufficient hydrological measurements and diverse future climate scenarios. Here, we employ high-resolution land surface modeling, advanced satellite observations, global climate model data, and deep learning to estimate GWS changes in the past and future. We find a 3.51±2.40 Gt yr-1 increase in GWS from 2002–2018, especially in exorheic basins, attributed to glacier melting. The GWS will persistently increase in the future, but the growth rate is slowing down (0.14 Gt yr-1 for 2079–2100). Increasing GWS is projected over most endorheic basins, which is associated with increasing precipitation and decreasing shortwave radiation. In contrast, decreasing GWS is projected over the headwaters of Amu Darya, Yangtze, and Yellow river basins. These insights have implications for sustainable water resource management in a changing climate.

How to cite: Wang, L. and Jia, B.: The slowdown of increasing groundwater storage in response to climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2331, 2024.

Large-scale revegetation presents a new set of challenges by augmenting water consumption in arid regions, despite its positive impact on ecosystems. In water-stressed areas, where precipitation is the primary source of water, extensive afforestation may disrupt the balance between water supply and demand. Consequently, it is crucial to assess the maximum extent of vegetation coverage and productivity that can be sustained by rainwater resources. Our study characterizes the sustainability of revegetation by determining the upper limit of the leaf area index (LAI) supported by rainwater resources. The research focuses on the Loess Plateau (LP), a region known for both large-scale vegetation restoration and severe water shortages. The upper limit on LAI is computed based on evapotranspiration (ET) supported by rainwater resources, utilizing an optimized Shuttleworth-Wallace (S-W) model that incorporates dynamic vegetation and carbon dioxide components. Carbon sequestration capacity and efficiency are compared between the maximum and actual vegetation scenarios using an analytical water use efficiency (WUE) model. Both models exhibit good performance and align with empirical observations. Results indicate that under the maximum vegetation scenario, the LAI is 11.5% higher than the actual scenario when vegetation on the LP is restored to its maximum level. The average gross primary productivity under the maximum vegetation scenario surpasses the actual scenario by 25.0%, with a 17.9% increase in ecosystem WUE. It is important to note that the maximum scenario represents a theoretical upper limit based on ideal assumptions. The findings emphasize that enhancing rainwater utilization efficiency can unlock the potential for sustainable vegetation restoration, improving its efficiency. This study provides valuable guidance and theoretical support for planning vegetation restoration in water-scarce regions.

How to cite: Zhang, B., Tian, L., and Li, Y.: Estimating the maximum vegetation coverage and productivity capacity supported by rainwater resources on the Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2402, 2024.

EGU24-2953 | PICO | HS1.1.2

Intensified Structural Overshoot Aggravates Drought Impacts on Dryland Ecosystems 

Liu Liu, Yixuan Zhang, Yongming Cheng, Qiang An, and Shaozhong Kang

A favorable environment can induce vegetation overgrowth to exceed the ecosystem carrying capacity, exacerbating water resource depletion and increasing the risk of lagged effects on vegetation degradation. This phenomenon is defined as structural overshoot, which can lead to large-scale forest mortality and grassland deterioration. However, the current understanding of structural overshoot remains incomplete due to the complex time-varying interactions between vegetation and climate. Here, we used a dynamic learning algorithm to decompose the contributions of vegetation and climate to drought occurrence, trace the connection between antecedent and concurrent vegetation dynamics, thus effectively capturing structural overshoot. This study focused on the climate-sensitive hotspot in Northwest China drylands, where significant vegetation greening induced by a warming and wetting climate was detected during 1982–2015, leading to soil moisture deficit and aggravating vegetation degradation risks during droughts. We found that during this period, structural overshoot induced approximately 34.6% of the drought events, and lagged effects accounted for 16.7% of the vegetation degradation for these overshoot drought events. The occurrence of overshoot droughts exhibited an increasing trend over time, which was primarily driven by vegetation overgrowth followed by precipitation variation. Although the severity of overshoot and non-overshoot droughts were generally comparable in spatial distribution, the impact of overshoot droughts is still becoming increasingly obvious. Our results indicate that the expected intensified overshoot droughts cannot be ignored and emphasize the necessity of sustainable agroecosystem management strategies.

How to cite: Liu, L., Zhang, Y., Cheng, Y., An, Q., and Kang, S.: Intensified Structural Overshoot Aggravates Drought Impacts on Dryland Ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2953, 2024.

EGU24-3504 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Reversal of Precipitation Trend in Hothouse Climates 

Jiachen Liu, Jun Yang, Feng Ding, Gang Chen, and Yongyun Hu

Hydrologic cycle has wide impacts on the ecosystem, atmospheric circulation, ocean salinity and circulation, and carbon and nitrogen cycles. Under anthropogenic global warming, previous studies showed that the intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a robust feature. Whether this trend persists in hothouse climates, however, is unknown. Here we show that mean precipitation first increases with surface temperature, but it decreases with surface warming when the surface is hotter than ~320-330 K. This non-monotonic phenomenon is robust to the warming trigger, convection scheme, ocean dynamics, atmospheric mass, planetary rotation, gravity, and stellar spectrum. The weakening is because of the existence of an upper limitation of outgoing longwave emission and the continuously increasing shortwave absorption by H2O, and is consistent with the strong increase of atmospheric stratification and dramatic reduction of convective mass flux. Our results have wide implications for the climates and evolutions of Earth, Venus, and potentially habitable exoplanets.

How to cite: Liu, J., Yang, J., Ding, F., Chen, G., and Hu, Y.: Reversal of Precipitation Trend in Hothouse Climates, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3504, 2024.

Changes in future climate are inevitable, strongly impacting water resources and their adaptation strategies. Northern Peru currently faces water scarcity issues, significantly limiting activities such as agriculture, a key economic and social pillar for the region. In addition, there are pronounced fluctuations in precipitation due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon (ENSO), along with scarcity of information regarding various climatic variables in terms of quantity and quality, making it challenging to accurately account for the resources available for proper management.

Therefore, this research aims to, through cluster analysis, assess the importance of various variables such as elevation, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature and stationarity index, for the period 1972-2015, in determining the hydrologically homogeneous regions currently present in the sub-basins of the northern region. Various multivariate cluster methods such as hierarchical clustering, partitioning around medoids (PAM), and K-means have been used for this purpose. To assess the validity of the analysis, Hopkins statistics and visual inspection methods were employed. Additionally, various validation tests, including internal and stability measures, were applied to evaluate the effectiveness of the cluster algorithm results. Alongside this analysis, a trend study of precipitation has been conducted, helping identify regions that may be experiencing changes in their rainfall patterns. This trend study was performed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test on the 49 stations located in the region. The same procedure was also applied to climate models with projections of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures up to the year of 2100 to understand the future behavior due to climate change.

Comparing hydrologically homogeneous regions and potential trend changes found between the current and future climate change situations would help identify potential areas where the analyzed climatic variables undergo significant changes. This would aid in identifying potential adaptation measures, since these variables are crucial for determining water availability.

How to cite: Chavez, A., Quevedo, V., Bravo, D., and Chapilliquen, D.: Evaluating the impact of climate change in Northern Peru by analyzing homogeneous regions based on different climate variables and precipitation trend changes., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3690, 2024.

Reservoirs have made significant contributions to human access and management of surface water resources, as well as to the production of clean energy, thus playing a vital role in alleviating the water crisis and decarbonizing energy systems through hydropower generation. The rapid growth in reservoir construction has led to an increase in the surface water area, consequently escalating evaporative water losses. As a crucial component of water cycle, most estimation methods for evapotranspiration focus on the land surface, with a relatively rough estimate of the significant evaporation loss from open surface water. Meanwhile, limited by the availability of reservoir geographic information and monthly area series data, there is still a lack of comprehensive and accurate estimation of reservoir evaporation losses. As the country with the largest number of dams in the world, it is necessary to accurately estimate China's surface water evaporation losses associated with its prosperous and developing dam construction. Here, we used the China Reservoir Dataset and LandSAT based Global Surface Water Dataset to reconstruct the monthly area series of 4874 reservoirs in China from 1984 to 2020, and further considering the heat storage of water bodies, the monthly evaporation losses of these reservoirs from 1988 to 2018 were estimated. The results indicate that the average annual evaporation volume of these 4874 reservoirs is 18.55 × 109 m3, equivalent to 31% of the total domestic water consumption of China (in 2021). During the research period, the evaporation rate shows a significant growth trend (p < 0.05, 0.15km3/year), attributed to the upward trend in evaporation rate (p < 0.05, 0.0046 mm/d/year) and total reservoir area (p < 0.05). The differences in economic development level and reservoir size result in significant spatial heterogeneity in the evaporation loss trend in different regions. The results can serve as a useful reference for water resources management and sustainable utilization.

How to cite: Zhu, Y. and Ye, A.: Estimation of Reservoir Evaporation Water Loss in Inland China over the Past 30 Years, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3901, 2024.

EGU24-4014 | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Mapping of climate to flood extremes in the European Alps: a multidisciplinary approach 

Alberto Viglione, Enrico Arnone, Susanna Corti, Olivia Ferguglia, Ignazio Giuntoli, Jost  von Hardenberg, Luca Lombardo, Paola Mazzoglio, and Elisa Palazzi

As our climate system climbs through its current warming path, temperature and precipitation are greatly affected also in their extremes and there is a general concern about the effects on river floods. While a wide body of literature on the detection of flood changes is available, the identification of their underlying causes (i.e. flood change attribution) is still debated. In this work, we aim at better understanding how floods of different kind are related to climate extremes (of precipitation and temperature) and how these extremes are related to large scale predictors (e.g. climate oscillations, teleconnections). The study area is the Greater Alpine Region, which is an ideal laboratory for analysing complex effects of climate on floods because of the interplay of heavy precipitation and snow processes in controlling flood generation, and also because the European Alps divide the Mediterranean and Continental Europe with different responses to climate oscillations. Through a novel integrated modeling chain, we aim at identifying the climate extreme indices that better relate to river floods, the large-scale climate phenomena controlling their dynamics, their expected modifications due to climate change and the associated uncertainties. The research plan of a multidisciplinary team of climatologists and hydrologists will be presented together with preliminary results. We believe that this research will strengthen our knowledge on flood risk in the future and contribute to improve existing methods for disaster risk assessment and management.

How to cite: Viglione, A., Arnone, E., Corti, S., Ferguglia, O., Giuntoli, I.,  von Hardenberg, J., Lombardo, L., Mazzoglio, P., and Palazzi, E.: Mapping of climate to flood extremes in the European Alps: a multidisciplinary approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4014, 2024.

Long-term extending cultivation activities resulted in the world’s worst soil erosion on the Chinese Loess Plateau. By converting cropland into vegetated land, the Grain for Green Project (GfGP)—the world’s largest investment revegetation project—effectively alleviates the soil erosion on the  Loess Plateau. However, during the GfGP implementation, the positive effect of cropland to the revegetation and soil erosion control has been underestimated to date, hindering a comprehensive evaluation to the effect of cropland on ecological restoration. Here, we evaluated the effect of the GfGP on soil erosion control across the  Loess Plateau, analyzed the dominant driver of the  Loess Plateau vegetation greening, and further identified the contributions of croplands to this world’s largest revegetation project. We found that the vegetation of the  Loess Plateau was significantly improved and its leaf area increased by 1.23 × 105 km2 after the implementation of the GfGP, which contributed 42% to the decrease of the  Loess Plateau soil loss. Among them, our results show that cropland contributed 39.3% to the increased leaf areas of the  Loess Plateau, higher than grassland (36.3%) and forestland (14.3%). With the reduction of agricultural area, the contribution of cropland to the increased leaf areas in the  Loess Plateau was still the largest, which was mainly due to the increase in cropland utilization intensity. This study highlights the significance of the GfGP in soil erosion control and revises our understanding of the role of cropland in ecological restoration and society development.

How to cite: Lan, X. and Liu, Z.: Land-use Intensity Reversed the Role of Cropland in Ecological Restoration over the World's Most Severe Soil Erosion Region, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4397, 2024.

EGU24-5467 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

The AAU Calibration and Data Assimilation (CDA) approach for improving large-scale hydrological models in a changing climate 

Maike Schumacher, Leire Retegui Schiettekatte, Fan Yang, and Ehsan Forootan

Extreme events such as floods and droughts are expected to become more frequent and intense due to the changing climate. However, it is still a challenge to monitor, understand, simulate, and anticipate the underlying hydrological processes. Large scale hydrological models and remote sensing observations (such as surface soil moisture from SMOS, SMAP and Sentinel, as well as total water storage changes (TWSC) from the GRACE and GRACE-FO gravity missions) provide a unique large-scale to global view on the changing hydrology. Sequential Calibration and Data Assimilation (CDA) provides opportunities to combine benefits from both, modelling and observing, and thus helps to improve our understanding of the impact of the climate change on water resources.

In this study, we present how the careful and consistent processing of GRACE/-FO data including a consistent estimation of the full error covariance matrix to represent the typical spatially correlated error structure supports the assimilation of satellite data into large-scale hydrological models. The first case study will tackle the question of selecting an appropriate multi-sensor data assimilation approach to combat the temporal and spatial resolution mismatch between data and model for high-dynamic frequencies. For this, daily GRACE data are assimilated for the Brahmaputra Basin that was subject to major floods, e.g., in 2004, 2007 and 2012. A reconstruction of these flood events allows a better understanding of the benefits and limitations of large-scale hydrological CDA in a changing climate. The second case study focuses on quantifying human-induced impacts on surface and groundwater storages under prolonged and intense droughts. Here, we assimilate two decades of monthly GRACE/-FO data for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, to better understand the impact of dry climatological conditions on our water resources.

How to cite: Schumacher, M., Retegui Schiettekatte, L., Yang, F., and Forootan, E.: The AAU Calibration and Data Assimilation (CDA) approach for improving large-scale hydrological models in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5467, 2024.

The impact of climate change and human activities poses significant challenges in the tropical region of Southeast Asia, specifically within the Mun-Chi River Basin, the largest tributary of the Mekong River in Thailand. The bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-LR, the most appropriate Global Climate Model (GCM) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for projecting Mun-Chi River flow, represent future climate variations in the basin. The analysis reveals forthcoming transformations in future land use, with cropland areas transitioning into forests and urban areas. The projected annual streamflow contributing to the Lower Mekong River is expected to increase by 1.14% to 3.49% in 2023-2035 and 1.84% to 4.26% in 2036-2050, with 67.17% attributed to climate change and 32.83% to land-use change. Temporal variations in the future flow regime reveal a wetter wet season and a drier dry season in this catchment. During the wet season, streamflow is projected to rise by 4.97% to 17.67% in 2023-2035 and 9.97% to 24.08% in 2036-2050. In contrast, the dry season is expected to experience a decrease of -2.69% to -9.15% in 2023-2035 and -6.28% to -17.10% in 2036-2050. These seasonal contrasts suggest a potential increase in extreme hydrological events, presenting challenges for efficient water resource management in this watershed and downstream countries. Consequently, effective water regulation and land-use policies are deemed crucial for sustainable management in the Mun-Chi River Basin.

How to cite: Inseeyong, N. and Xu, M.: Impacts of Climate and Land use Changes on Streamflow in the Mun-Chi River Basin, the Largest Tributary of the Mekong River, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6428, 2024.

The estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET) using both rescaled and non-rescaled complementary relationship (CR) models has become a hotspot in the research on terrestrial ET. This study explores the relationship between these two CR models and improves the method for calculating xmin in rescaled CR models. The rescaled and non-rescaled CR models can be functionally interconvertible, i.e., the non-rescaled CR model enables the rescaled simulation of ET and the rescaled CR model can also conduct a non-rescaled simulation. The parameter b or c in the non-rescaled CR models plays a role similar to xmin in the rescaled models. Based on the data from 15 catchments in the Loess Plateau of China, we validate this relationship between the two CR models. Meanwhile, we evaluate the formulation for xmin proposed by Crago et al. (2016) (the Crago’s xmin values) and the results show that the range of variation for the Crago’s xmin values is smaller than that for the xmin values obtained by inverse method from the models (the inversed xmin values) in the interannual process. The inversed xmin values of RCR-C2016 are mostly larger than that of RCR-S2017, while the Crago’s xmin values are in between these two values. The empirical function for xmin is developed using the aridity index (AI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as independent variables in the interannual fluctuations. On the mean annual scale, the empirical function for xmin is expressed only using the AI. Cross-validation results show that the rescaled CR models combined with xmin determined by the empirical functions can more accurately estimate ET and simulate its interannual and spatial changes. (Supported by Project 41971049 of NSFC)

How to cite: Mu, Z., Liu, W., Ma, N., Cheng, C., and Zhou, H.: Relations of rescaled to non-rescaled complementary models and improvement of evapotranspiration estimates by incorporating both climatic and land surface conditions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6983, 2024.

EGU24-7046 | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Global models overestimate streamflow induced by rising CO2 

Haoshan Wei, Yongqiang Zhang, Changming Liu, and Qi Huang

The global streamflow plays a crucial role in the broader water cycle, intricately linked to human activities, ecology, and agriculture. The rise in atmospheric CO2 has complex effects on global streamflow. In addition to feedbacks to climate change, CO2 impacts on streamflow result from surface changes, including reduced streamflow induced by expanding vegetation and increased streamflow induced by reduced vegetation evapotranspiration due to stomatal closure. Global models, vital for policy planning, predict increased streamflow due to dominant positive impacts of elevated CO2. More than 10 out of 14 global dynamic vegetation models concluded that increased CO2 exacerbated runoff growth over the 1981-2020 period, especially in tropical and temperate regions. Yet, studying four decades of observed streamflow data, we find these models largely overestimate the increase in streamflow induced by elevated CO2, particularly in tropical forest (tropical) and cold forest (cold), pointing to an unexpectedly drier world.

How to cite: Wei, H., Zhang, Y., Liu, C., and Huang, Q.: Global models overestimate streamflow induced by rising CO2, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7046, 2024.

In order to compare the impacts of the choice of land surface model (LSM) parameterization schemes, meteorological forcing, and land surface parameters on land surface hydrological simulations, and explore to what extent the quality can be improved, a series of experiments with different LSMs, forcing datasets, and parameter datasets concerning soil texture and land cover were conducted. Six simulations are run for mainland China on 0.1o×0.1o grids from 1979 to 2008, and the simulated monthly soil moisture (SM), evapotranspiration (ET), and snow depth (SD) are then compared and assessed against observations. The results show that the meteorological forcing is the most important factor governing output. Beyond that, SM seems to be also very sensitive to soil texture information; SD is also very sensitive to snow parameterization scheme in the LSM. The Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters (referred to as CMFD_CLM4.5_NEW), significantly improved the simulations in most cases over mainland China and its eight basins. It increased the correlation coefficient values from 0.46 to 0.54 for the SM modeling and from 0.54 to 0.67 for the SD simulations, and it decreased the root-mean-square error (RMSE) from 0.093 to 0.085 for the SM simulation and reduced the normalized RMSE from 1.277 to 0.201 for the SD simulations. This study indicates that the offline LSM simulation using a refined LSM driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters can better model reginal land surface hydrological processes.

How to cite: Liu, J., Jia, B., and Xie, Z.: Elucidating Dominant Factors Affecting Land Surface Hydrological Simulations of the Community Land Model over China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7416, 2024.

The elevated CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has warmed the planet and modified the global precipitation pattern. Typical impact studies that investigate the regional hydrological response to climate change is based on the hydrological models forced by climate model projections. However, the physiological CO2 effects of plants that manifests as reduced transpiration via partially closed leaf stomata and enhanced photosynthesis is often overlooked in these impact studies. 
 
Here, the potential impact of the physiological CO2 effects on hydrological trends in France over the 21st century is assesed using the validated high-resolution Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model (Huang et al., 2023). The ORCHIDEE land surface model is forced with 4 regionalized climate projections narrowed from the CMIP5 ensemble projection under the RCP 8.5 scenario, with which we test the effect of two atmospheric CO2 conditions: a constant CO2 level of year 2005 and an increasing CO2 concentration of the RCP 8.5. 
 
We find that the physiological CO2 effects result in a decrease of evapotranspiration and an increase of total runoff over France for the 4 projections. Therefore, the physiological CO2 effects enhance the increasing trend of river discharges in wet projections and alleviate the decreasing trend of river discharges in dry projections over the 21st century. Despite the model uncertainties, our study confirms the important physiological CO2 effects on French water availaibility in the future, and this result likely holds at a broader scale.

How to cite: Huang, P. and Ducharne, A.: The impact of increasing atmosphere CO2 concentration on hydrological trends in France over the 21st century, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7788, 2024.

EGU24-7987 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Multi-decadal change in global rainfall interception and its drivers 

Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Akash Koppa, Liliang Ren, Yi Liu, Menghao Wang, and Diego G. Miralles

Rainfall interception loss (Ei) is one of the biggest unknowns in the global hydrological cycle. As a dynamic process, Ei depends on vegetation structure and canopy characteristics, but also on the precipitation and (micro)climatic conditions that determine the atmospheric demand for water. The spatial variability of these factors makes it difficult to reliably estimate Ei over large scales, and its sensitivity to non-stationary climate variability renders Ei trends highly uncertain. In this regard, process-based formulations accounting for key biophysical and climatic factors provide unique opportunities to examine the global patterns of Ei, as well as the driving mechanisms behind its variability.

Here we explore the estimates of Ei from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM v3; Martens et al., 2017), the Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML v2; Zhang et al., 2019) model, and a recently proposed and validated global application constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data (Zhong et al., 2022). All three methods estimate long-term Ei based on Gash-type formulations (Valente et al., 1997; Van Dijk and Bruijnzeel, 2001). To reduce uncertainty, a multi-product approach is applied to examine the spatial-temporal trends in Ei. Moreover, we focus on a well-validated model (Zhong et al., 2022) to further isolate the relative contributions of precipitation, vegetation and evaporative demand to Ei variability. We find that Ei, described both in terms of the volume of evaporated water and as a percentage of precipitation, exhibits increasing trends globally. Contrasting regional changes are found, however, with a significant increase over Eurasia where the strongest vegetation greening occurs, and decreases over the Congo basin driven by a decline in precipitation. At decadal timescales, the increasing Ei is largely driven by global vegetation greening through an increase in the intercepting surface and storage capacity, while its inter-annual variations are mainly controlled by changes in precipitation. Moreover, the positive contribution of evaporative demand should not be overlooked, given the ubiquitous rise in global potential evaporation driven by atmospheric warming.

 

References

Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Lievens, H., van der Schalie, R., de Jeu, R. A. M., Fernández-Prieto, D., Beck, H. E., Dorigo, W. A., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1903– 1925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, 2017.

Valente, F., David, J., and Gash, J.: Modelling interception loss for two sparse eucalypt and pine forests in central Portugal using reformulated Rutter and Gash analytical models, J. Hydrol., 190, 141–162, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03066-1, 1997.

Van Dijk, A. and Bruijnzeel, L.: Modelling rainfall interception by vegetation of variable density using an adapted analytical model. Part 1. Model description, J. Hydrol., 247, 230–238, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00392-4, 2001.

Zhang, Y., Kong, D., Gan, R., Chiew, F. H. S., McVicar, T. R., Zhang, Q., and Yang, Y.: Coupled estimation of 500m and 8day resolution global evapotranspiration and gross primary production in 2002–2017, Remote Sens. Environ., 222, 165–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.12.031, 2019.

Zhong, F., Jiang, S., van Dijk, A. I., Ren, L., Schellekens, J., and Miralles, D. G.: Revisiting large-scale interception patterns constrained by a synthesis of global experimental data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26(21), 5647-5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022.

How to cite: Zhong, F., Jiang, S., Koppa, A., Ren, L., Liu, Y., Wang, M., and Miralles, D. G.: Multi-decadal change in global rainfall interception and its drivers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7987, 2024.

EGU24-8134 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Predicting annual base flow index and its trends using a large sample of dataset across the globe 

Qi Huang, Jan Seibert, and Yongqiang Zhang

The Base-Flow Indices (BFI), indicating surface and groundwater interaction, play a significant role in the hydrological cycle. The values vary widely across the globe, and are expected to change in the context of a changing climate. Predicting global “natural” BFI is challenging due to limited observations reflecting natural impacts. This study aims to predict annual BFI and their trends for a compiled dataset of annual streamflow and meteorological data covering the period 1982-2020 for more than 2250 small unregulated catchments worldwide. BFI were derived using three digital filtering methods, resulting in a trend of -0.0009 ± 0.01 per decade over the last four decades. To predict annual BFI and their trends in ungauged catchments, a Random Forest Regression approach was employed, incorporating static attributes and meteorological time series data as model inputs. Five-fold cross-validation demonstrated the effectiveness of the Random Forest Regression in predicting both BFI and their trends. The Quantile Regression Forest method was utilized to quantify the uncertainty, achieving a relatively low range for both BFI and their trends. Soil conditions and maximum temperature emerged as the most crucial variables for predicting BFI, while temperature-related variables also proved essential for predicting the BFI trends. The goal is to extend the understanding of "natural" BFI and their trends in ungauged catchments, as the Random Forest Regression model was trained under unregulated conditions. This study offers the possibility to predict "natural" BFI and their trendsacross the globe. This could support water authorities in managing water resources, particularly concerning base flow.

How to cite: Huang, Q., Seibert, J., and Zhang, Y.: Predicting annual base flow index and its trends using a large sample of dataset across the globe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8134, 2024.

EGU24-9824 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

The hydrometeorological ingredients needed to fill dry Saharan lakes 

Moshe Armon, Joëlle C. Rieder, Elad Dente, and Franziska Aemisegger

The Sahara desert was potentially much wetter and vegetated in the past during the warm African Humid Period. Although debated, this climatic shift is a possible scenario in a future warmer climate. The most prominent reported evidence for past green periods in the Sahara is the presence of paleo-lakes. Even today, Saharan desert lakes get filled from time to time. However, very little is known about these events due to the lack of available in-situ observations. In addition, the hydrometeorological conditions associated with these events have never been investigated in a dedicated climatological approach. This study proposes to fill this knowledge gap by investigating the meteorology of lake-filling episodes (LFEs) of Sebkha el Melah – a commonly dry lake in the northwestern Sahara. Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) and LFEs are identified using a combination of precipitation observations and lake volume estimates derived from remote sensing satellite imagery. Weather reanalysis data is used together with three-dimensional trajectory calculations to investigate the moisture sources and characteristics of weather systems that lead to HPEs and to assess the conditions necessary for producing LFEs. Results show that hundreds of HPEs occurred between 2000 and 2021, but only 6 LFEs eventuate. The runoff coefficient, i.e. the ratio between the increase in lake water volume during LFEs and precipitation volume during the HPEs that triggered the lake-filling, ranges five orders of magnitude and is much smaller than the figures often cited in the literature regarding this arid area. We find that LFEs are generated most frequently in autumn by the most intense HPEs, for which the key ingredients are (i) the formation of surface extratropical cyclones to the west of the Atlantic Sahara coastline in interplay with upper-level troughs and lows, (ii) moisture convergence from the tropics and the extratropical North Atlantic, (iii) a premoistening of the region upstream of the catchment over the Sahara through a recycling-domino-process, (iv) coupled or sequential lifting processes (e.g., orographic lifting and large-scale forcing), and (v) the stationarity of synoptic systems. Based on the insights gained into Saharan LFEs in the present-day climate, future studies will be able to better assess the mechanisms involved in the greening of the Sahara in the past and also in a warmer future.

How to cite: Armon, M., Rieder, J. C., Dente, E., and Aemisegger, F.: The hydrometeorological ingredients needed to fill dry Saharan lakes, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9824, 2024.

EGU24-10051 | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

A survey of past and future changes in global river flow 

Lukas Gudmundsson, Manuela Brunner, Petra Döll, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Simon N. Gosling, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Hannes Müller Schmied, Louise Slater, Lina Stein, Conrad Wasko, Dai Yamazaki, and Xudong Zhou

River flow is an essential component of the global water cycle and arguably the best monitored variable in land hydrology. Both anthropogenic climate change as well as direct human influences on the terrestrial environment influence river flow at local to planetary scales. Here, we survey recent scientific advances in quantifying past trends and projecting future changes in global river flow, with focus on trends in flow volumes and seasonality. Previously published evidence of past changes is complemented by an analysis of changes in river flow using in-situ observations and river discharge estimates from a global re-analysis product. Available literature on future projections is accompanied by an analysis of Global Climate Model projections routed through the global river network.

Systematic patterns of past changes in river flow emerge at the regional to global scales, despite significant uncertainties and small-scale spatial variability. These uncertainties are related e.g. to differences in study periods, considered indicators of change, availability of in-situ observations, and uncertainties of model-based reconstructions. Some of the most pronounced changes in past river flow include increasing river flow in the northern high latitudes and robust decreasing trends in significant parts of central and south America, the Mediterranean region, the southern tip of Africa as well as central and southern Australia. In other world regions, available in-situ observations are sparse or there is conflicting evidence, meaning that trends are still uncertain. We further show systematic shifts in the river flow seasonality with a tendency for earlier streamflow and a dampened seasonal cycle in across many parts of the world likely to due to higher temperatures and earlier snowmelt, with later streamflow in the Mediterranean linked to changes in rainfall.

Climate model driven assessments of future changes in river flow suggest that total global discharge to the oceans may increase with global warming, albeit with large regional differences in the direction of change and substantial model uncertainty. Across several studies based on different model ensembles, there is consensus for increasing river flow in the northern high latitudes and some evidence for increasing river flow in tropical Africa, the Indian subcontinent and eastern and tropical Africa. Finally, we highlight regions in which past changes in river flow are consistent with future projections, which include but are not limited to increasing river flow in northern North America and northern Europe, as well as drying tendencies in the Mediterranean, the southern tip of Africa and Southern Australia. The consistency between model projections and historical trends in these regions gives confidence to future water management decisions, while disparities between historical trends and projections highlights regions where better understanding of the processes governing past and future change in river flow will be required moving forward.

How to cite: Gudmundsson, L., Brunner, M., Döll, P., Fluet-Chouinard, E., Gosling, S. N., Hirabayashi, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Slater, L., Stein, L., Wasko, C., Yamazaki, D., and Zhou, X.: A survey of past and future changes in global river flow, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10051, 2024.

EGU24-10053 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Assessing impacts of vegetation changes on water availability in the upper Yellow River Basin, China 

Yan Wang, Guoqing Wang, Xiyuan Deng, and Yuli Ruan

Changes in vegetation are expected to influence terrestrial water and energy fluxes; however, the impacts of vegetation changes on water availability remain controversial. In this study, we applied the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM4.5) coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological parameterizations to the upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB), which is the most important water conservation area in the Yellow River Basin, to investigate the impacts of vegetation changes on water availability in the area. The results showed a pronounced greening trend in the UYRB from 1982 to 2018, resulting in increased evapotranspiration, decreased runoff, drier soil conditions, and decreased water yield. The water reduction effect of vegetation greening is more pronounced in water-limited areas than in energy-limited areas. This study highlights the diverse hydrological responses to vegetation changes under different climatic conditions and land cover types. It is crucial for ecological restoration policies in China to recognize these distinctions and their potential negative impacts on water availability, especially in water-limited regions.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Wang, G., Deng, X., and Ruan, Y.: Assessing impacts of vegetation changes on water availability in the upper Yellow River Basin, China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10053, 2024.

EGU24-10062 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Drivers of changes in catchment evapotranspiration in Central Europe over the past 40 years 

Doris Duethmann, Giulia Bruno, and Laurent Strohmenger

Understanding long-term changes in evapotranspiration and their drivers is crucial due to direct impacts on water availability. Increasing evapotranspiration rates can exacerbate droughts and jeopardise water availability, especially in the summer months with higher water demands. Uncertainties of multi-decadal variations in evapotranspiration at local to regional scale and their drivers are, however, still large. In this data-based study, we derive changes in evapotranspiration from the catchment water balance for a large number of catchments in Central Europe over 1982–2016. We further analyse changes in potential drivers including vegetation and land cover based on a remote-sensing derived vegetation index and a land cover product, water availability based on changes in seasonal precipitation and available energy and atmospheric demand based on changes in reference evapotranspiration. We find wide-spread increases in catchment evapotranspiration until about the year 2000 and only small changes with a decreasing tendency after 2000. The observed variations in regional evapotranspiration are significantly correlated with variations in precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and vegetation activity. High evapotranspiration around 2000 can be related to high values of reference evapotranspiration, precipitation and vegetation activity. Lower evapotranspiration in the early 1980s despite relatively high precipitation is linked to lower values of reference evapotranspiration and vegetation activity, while the halt of further evapotranspiration increases after 2000 despite high values of reference evapotranspiration may be explained by low precipitation. The study contributes to expand our knowledge on the drivers of changes in the water balance in Central Europe over recent decades, which is of great importance for water management in a changing climate.

How to cite: Duethmann, D., Bruno, G., and Strohmenger, L.: Drivers of changes in catchment evapotranspiration in Central Europe over the past 40 years, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10062, 2024.

EGU24-11031 | PICO | HS1.1.2

Global Aridity Index and Potential Evapotranspiration Database: CIMP_6 Future Projections 

Antonio Trabucco, Donatella Spano, and Robert J Zomer

We present the recent release of the “Global Aridity Index and Potential Evapotranspiration Database: CIMP_6 Future Projections – v.1 (Future_Global_AI_PET)”, which provides very high-resolution (30 arc-seconds or about 1km at equator) global raster dataset of average monthly and annual potential evapotransipation (PET) and annual aridity index (AI) for two historical (1960-1990; 1970-2000) and two future (2021-2040; 2041-2060) time periods for each of 25 CIMP6 Earth System Models across four emission scenarios (SSP: 126, 245, 370, 585). Potential evapotranspiration (PET) characterizes the atmosphere's capacity to remove water through evapotranspiration (ET). Evaporation and transpiration processes collectively transfer water from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere with rates determined by solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity (specifically, vapor pressure deficit), wind speed, as well as the distinctive traits of vegetation, or crops and the practices employed in their cultivation. Estimates of reference evapotranspiraton (ET0) have been widely used across diverse scientific fields and practical domains, with PET measurements and related indices playing a crucial role in agricultural and natural resource management with demonstrated utility on scales from individual farms to regional and global. The aridity index (AI), which describes the ratio of precipitation to PET provides an integrated measure to gauge moisture availability for plant growth, generally of specific reference crops or specific vegetation types, enabling both spatial and temporal comparisons. In an era of rapid environmental and climatic transformations, these metrics, along with their derived indices, assume a pivotal role as direct and critical measures, as well as predictive tools, for gauging the trajectory, direction, and extent of climatic variations and their ramifications for terrestrial, and particularly agricultural, ecosystems. This latest addition to the Global_AI_PET database also includes three averaged multi-model ensembles produced for each of the four emission scenarios: All Models:  includes all of the 25 ESM available; High Risk: includes 5 ESM which were identified as projecting the highest increases in temperature and significantly higher than the majority of estimates; Majority Consensus:  includes 20 ESM, that is, all of the available ESM minus the five ESM in the “High Risk” category.  Preliminary results based on CIMP6 ESM projections are provided showing significant change in global and regional trends for PET and aridity in the near- and medium-term, with implications for agriculture, biodiversity, watershed management, and water resources. The Future_Global_AI_PET Database is the latest and most recent addition to the Global PET_AI Database, which has provided PET and AI datasets using both the Hargreaves and Penman-Monteith equations, and has been available online since 2009, downloaded over 50,000 times, and with more than 2000 scholarly citations:

 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Global_Aridity_Index_and_Potential_Evapotranspiration_ET0_Climate_Database_v2/7504448/6)

How to cite: Trabucco, A., Spano, D., and Zomer, R. J.: Global Aridity Index and Potential Evapotranspiration Database: CIMP_6 Future Projections, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11031, 2024.

Heatwaves – short-term periods of anomalous warmth – can play an outsized role in shaping downstream water resources as they impact the timing and magnitude of snow and glacier melt.  Melt-driven runoff enhanced during spring heatwaves is particularly important as it can cause downstream flooding and damage.  It is well understood that heatwaves will become more frequent and more severe in the future due to climate change; however, it is not well understood how the hydrological response to heatwaves will change in the future.

Here, we quantify the streamflow response to heatwaves over the past century across Western Canada.  We investigate how such streamflow responses vary in space, time, by streamflow regime, and by hydroclimate conditions, and we present a simple mathematical framework to partition the responses into seasonal and heatwave-driven components.  We use freshet timing and winter snowfall as metrics that are expected to change under climate change, and we compare how streamflow responses to heatwaves differ between baseline historical years (later freshet and more snowfall) and future proxy years (earlier freshet and less snowfall). 

We find that in future proxy years, the streamflow response to spring heatwaves is diminished when seasonal streamflow is enhanced, indicating that peak streamflow during heatwaves does not necessarily increase under climate warming.  We also find that the proportion of spring streamflow generated by heatwaves is lessened relative to seasonal streamflow, and this proportion is diminished as the freshet progresses.

Our results contextualize how the streamflow responses to heatwaves have varied over the past century, to better understand how they may change in the future.  Importantly, our findings have implications for future heatwave-driven flooding in nival and glacial basins at both regional and global scales, and we present novel observational signals of change in heatwave-driven streamflow that can be further investigated by future modelling studies.

How to cite: Anderson, S. and Chartrand, S.: Spatiotemporal variability of heatwave-driven streamflow in nival and glacial basins: Future insights from a century of observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11575, 2024.

EGU24-13209 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Tree planting attenuates storm runoff response on the Chinese Loess Plateau 

Shaozhen Liu, Hansjörg Seybold, Ilja van Meerveld, Yunqiang Wang, and James W. Kirchner

Tree planting to mitigate climate change has become a popular topic in recent years. While it has been widely reported that tree planting reduces annual water yield, it is not clear how tree planting affects a catchment’s storm runoff response for events of different magnitudes. China’s “Grain for Green Program” almost doubled the vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau two decades ago, and thus represents a large-scale experiment revealing the impact of tree planting on hydrological processes. Here we show how the storm runoff response to rainfall has changed as a result of tree planting using five sub-catchments in a 26,000 km2 large basin that received different degrees of afforestation. Our dataset covers over 40 years of daily streamflows, allowing us to use new nonlinear Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis techniques to quantify the runoff response to rainfall events of different intensities. We find that after tree planting, the runoff response peak decreased up to 86%, proportional to the percentage increase in the Leaf Area Index (LAI). This attenuation of peak runoff is much larger than that of the decrease in average growing season runoff (59%). Surprisingly, the largest attenuation in peak runoff response occurs during high-intensity rainfall events rather than low-intensity rainfall events. This observation implies that the main mechanisms reducing runoff response cannot be increased canopy interception or soil moisture depletion, because these would be expected to have a larger effect on low-intensity events. Instead, we hypothesize that the main mechanisms are likely to be reductions in runoff-generating areas and increases in infiltration rates. Consistent with this hypothesis, low flows (i.e., Q95) do not decrease, but instead increase up to 25%, with the largest increases in low flows occurring in sub-catchments with the largest percentage increases in LAI. These findings highlight the positive effect of tree planting on reducing storm runoff peaks and increasing low flows, coincident with the reduction in annual water yield that has been widely reported in other studies. These substantial and persistent hydrological consequences of tree planting can inform future efforts at climate change mitigation through vegetation management.

How to cite: Liu, S., Seybold, H., van Meerveld, I., Wang, Y., and W. Kirchner, J.: Tree planting attenuates storm runoff response on the Chinese Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13209, 2024.

EGU24-13611 | PICO | HS1.1.2

Hydrologic responses to climate change and implications for reservoirs in the source region of the Yangtze River 

Hongmei Xu, Pengcheng Qin, Zhihong Xia, Lüliu Liu, Qiuling Wang, and Chan Xiao

Understanding the hydrological impacts of climate change is essential for robust and sustainable water management. This study assessed the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Jinshajiang River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, using the historical observations and the future hydrologic simulations under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), deriving from a hydrological model. For the historical period, there is an increasing trend in precipitation, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and consequently an increasing in streamflow in the upstream, whereas a decreased streamflow in the downstream catchment. For future scenarios, a warmer and wetter climate was projected for the basin throughout the 21st century, and correspondingly an overall increase in mean and extreme streamflow, with a larger magnitude in the far future than in the near future, and under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The projected remarkable increase in precipitation cause the transition in changing trend of streamflow compared with the historical period. The projected continuing decline in snowfall and snow water equivalent result in a significant advance and decrease in snowmelt, followed by an earlier and more concentrated peak streamflow in July, especially for the upstream catchment. Ultimately, reservoirs in the basin are expected to gain more inflows, however, with larger variability and more floods and hydrological droughts, which impose potential challenges on reservoir operations. These outcomes indicate the importance of adaptive water resources management in the melting water contributed basin to sustain and enhance its services under global warming.

How to cite: Xu, H., Qin, P., Xia, Z., Liu, L., Wang, Q., and Xiao, C.: Hydrologic responses to climate change and implications for reservoirs in the source region of the Yangtze River, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13611, 2024.

EGU24-13740 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Assessment of Land Surface Model's Evapotranspiration Response 

Yaoting Cai, Xingjie Lu, Zhongwang Wei, and Nan Wei

Biotic factors have been identified as one of the most important controls on evapotranspiration (ET) variation in the scenario of future climate change. Land surface models have developed sophisticated canopy processes to emphasize the importance of vegetation. However, as the vegetation processes become more and more complicated, the relative importance of biotic impact in comparison with abiotic impact on ET has not been well quantified. Failing to understand the relative importance between abiotic and biotic impact may result model bias in water cycle prediction. We collected satellite-based

ET dataset (GLEAM, CRv1, P-LSH), climate data, biotic factor estimates, and apply the variance decomposition analysis to quantify the relative importance between biotic and abiotic impacts. Then, we compared with the model counterpart, i.e. the ensemble means of LS3MIP and CMIP6. Variance decomposition analysis on ET dataset show that about 70% of the ET inter-annual variation is contributed from abiotic factors, such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), net radiation, and precipitation, whereas only 30% of ET variance is explained by biotic factors, such as stomata conductance and leaf area index (LAI). The abiotic contributions of the models show great uncertainties, which range from 36% to 60%. Overall, the abiotic factor contributions of most models are significantly higher than satellite-based ET dataset. ET variation of grassland is mostly explained by abiotic factors, which is consistent between models and ET dataset. VPD and precipitation explained most of the ET variation in ET dataset, especially in high latitude, whereas stomata conductance and LAI explained most of the ET variation in LS3MIP and CMIP6 models in boreal forest. The model overestimates of abiotic contribution indicate more complicated canopy processes require better constraints. Climate change leading to increase in VPD and more frequent extreme precipitation potentially play more important role in future ET changes. More efforts, such as model parameterization, calibration, new process development, still need to be made by modelers to improve model meteorological feedback.

How to cite: Cai, Y., Lu, X., Wei, Z., and Wei, N.: Assessment of Land Surface Model's Evapotranspiration Response, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13740, 2024.

EGU24-13880 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Assessment of climate change impacts on Brazilian catchments using a regional deep learning approach 

André Almagro, Pedro Zamboni, and Paulo Tarso Oliveira

The potential impacts of climate change in catchment hydrology are still unknown in most of the world and it is not different in Brazil. Conducting an integrated analysis of catchments based on similarity groups allows us to extract conclusions and observations about the overall controls of hydrological behavior, but also considering the specific and distinctive characteristics of each of these groups. This approach enables us to identify and comprehend the primary features influencing hydrological behavior within each distinct group, increasing hydrologic predictability and knowledge of catchments’ functioning, which is essential to better understand the impacts of climate change. In this study, we investigate the possible shifts in Brazilian catchment hydrology behavior in response to a changing climate. Employing a regional approach of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to understand and predict streamflow across 735 catchments of six hydrologically similar groups in Brazil, we simulated streamflow throughout the 21st century. This simulation utilized a multi-model ensemble comprising 19 bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), driven by intermediate and high-emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Our results show that the regional LSTM outperforms the conventional hydrological modeling (NSE≈0.60), underscoring the reliability of deep learning to estimate streamflow with simplified input. Interestingly, we found that substantial variations in projected temperatures across scenarios do not necessarily correspond to significant differences in projected streamflow. Moreover, changes in precipitation and temperature may not exert proportional impacts on streamflow. Further, we will investigate the dynamics of transitions between catchment groups. This innovative approach to assess the impacts of climate change enhances the reliability of projected streamflow trajectories, a critical consideration given the uncertainties associated with CMIP6 models. Furthermore, this study holds potential utility in developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Brazilian water resources.

How to cite: Almagro, A., Zamboni, P., and Oliveira, P. T.: Assessment of climate change impacts on Brazilian catchments using a regional deep learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13880, 2024.

Background

Both blue water and green water contribute to agricultural water scarcity, which is subjected to impacts of escalating climate extremes, e.g., precipitation and temperature extremes. However, an explicit quantification of the possible effects of compound climate extremes on agricultural water scarcity index (AWSI) under historical and future climate is absent and current research often overlooks how different spatial scales influence agricultural water scarcity.

Methods

We applied an integrated AWSI, which incorporates blue water and green water, to estimate agricultural water scarcity in provincial and basin scales in China, and to determine the association of AWSI with compound climate extremes over the historical period 1971–2010 and for future period 2031–2070.

Conclusions
Our results indicate a marked escalation in AWSI during dry years and periods of elevated temperatures, and precipitation significantly impacts AWSI more than temperature variations. In secondary basins, AWSI was about 25.7% higher than the long-term average during dry years, increasing to nearly 49% in exceptionally dry conditions. Comparatively, in tertiary basins, the increases were 27.7% and 55%, respectively. In years characterized by high temperatures, AWSI rose by approximately 6.8% (7.3% for tertiary basins) from the average, surging to around 19.1% (15.5% for tertiary basins) during extremely hot periods. Future climate change would further intensify AWSI and amplify the effects of climate extremes, particularly in Inner Mongolia with changes of AWSI over 200%. Southwestern China could also experience expanding agricultural water scarcity under future climate scenarios. Improving irrigation efficiency has potential to alleviate water scarcity by up to 30%. Moreover, it illustrates that AWSI assessment at the tertiary basin level could better capture the influence of climate extremes on AWSI compared to assessments at the secondary basin level. As a whole, the investigation offers an in-depth evaluation of the influence of compound precipitation and temperature extremes and research scale on water scarcity.

How to cite: Liu, J. and Liu, W.: Impacts of climate extremes on agricultural water scarcity under historical and future periods and the spatial scale effect, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14467, 2024.

EGU24-14546 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Intensified floods after mega forest fires in southeast Australia  

Zhenwu Xu, Yongqiang Zhang, and Günter Blöschl

Forest fires are commonly expected to exacerbate local flood hazards. Yet, it's not well-established if such an effect is evident across broader geographic regions concurrently, particularly when considering the compounded influences of forest fires and climate variability on floods. Here, we show that recent 2019–2020 mega forest fires in southeast Australia, characterized by unprecedented burned areas, have significantly increased the flood peak discharges in the ensuing two years. The impact varied regionally, being more pronounced in areas with winter-dominated and uniform rainfall patterns, while it was insignificant in regions with summer-dominated rainfall. This regional divergence in fire impacts can be attributed to the differences in burned areas and dominant flood generating mechanisms. Given the increasing influence of climate change on fire activities, people living in these fire-prone regions might face escalating risks of cascading flood hazards following fires in the future.

How to cite: Xu, Z., Zhang, Y., and Blöschl, G.: Intensified floods after mega forest fires in southeast Australia , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14546, 2024.

Affected by global climate change, the variations of snow cover and snowmelt runoff in the high cold region has raised an increasing concern. Snowmelt water is an important component of spring runoff in the Lancang River basin, and it is of great significance for the scientific operation of cascade hydropower stations in the Lancang River basin to master the variation law of snow cover in the upper reaches of the Lancang River and accurately simulate the snowmelt runoff process. Based on the remotely sensed snow cover data from 2000 to 2019, the Mann-Kendall trend test method was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of snow cover in the upper reaches of Lancang River. An snowmelt runoff model was established, and the PSO algorithm was introduced to determine the model parameters to simulate the snowmelt runoff process. The results show that the snow cover in the upper reaches of Lancang River showed no significant increase in spring, autumn and winter, and no significant decrease in summer. The average annual snow cover in spring, summer, autumn and winter was 0.16, 0.06, 0.13 and 0.17, respectively. The snow cover in the southwest and north of the Lancang River source area increased in all seasons, while the snow cover in the southeast area decreased. Among them, the increase of snow cover in the northwest reaches the largest in winter, up to 3%/a. The SRM model has good applicability in the upper reaches of the Lancang River, and the certainty coefficients of calibration period and verification period are 0.87 and 0.78, respectively, and the results have a certain implication for the simulation of snowmelt runoff in the alpine region.

How to cite: Zhang, J.: Evolution trend of snow cover and simulation of snowmelt runoff in upper reaches of Lancang River, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14558, 2024.

Detailed changes in land surface water fluxes under vegetation greening is unclear especially in different patterns of climate change and land-use change. A typical vegetation greening region located in Loess Plateau was selected as a studying area. Because of high spatial heterogeneous site conditions, similar spectral reflectance and shapes of different vegetation types, there is a low accuracy of land cover mapping in mixed regions of multiple vegetation types, thereby leading to a pronounced underestimate of land use change, such as grain for green project. Besides spectrum, topography, and some usually used features, a novel land cover mapping framework is constructed with evapotranspiration which vary dramatically in vegetation types. Generally, the classification accuracy of all kinds of land cover is above 90%, and improved by 5.4-15.3%, 0-15.7%, 3.0-20.4%, of cropland, forest and grassland, respectively. Then water fluxes including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff were analyzed in nine different vegetation types, considering the three types of vegetation found in cropland, forest and grassland along with respective stable, loss, and gain states. The result indicated that the cropland returning and afforestation has successfully facilitated a positive regional water cycle. This finding is useful for supporting ecological restoration and future water resources management, and enhancing the carrying capacity and resilience of the region.

How to cite: Bao, Z., Wang, J., and Ruan, Y.: Characterization of land surface water flux under vegetation greening introduced by changes in climate and land-use, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14579, 2024.

In recent times, climate change leads to the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall, severe drought, heatwaves, and cold spells. From the perspective of the watershed hydrologic cycle, these changes have resulted in adverse effects, including an increase in surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and a decrease in groundwater recharge. Coastal areas, in particular, have a greater reliance on groundwater compared to inland watershed, making water resources vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, in this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was implemented for the An-Seong-cheon watershed (1,627 km2), which is adjacent to the coastal region in South Korea. The SWAT was calibrated and validated for runoff and evapotranspiration. The estimation of groundwater recharge was conducted based on the calibrated water balance components, the average recharge was calculated to be 21.2% for the study area. Subsequently, extreme climate change scenarios were selected, by examining the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Assessment Report 6 (AR6). The extreme climate change scenarios will be applied to the SWAT model to project future changes in groundwater recharge. Ultimately, the purpose of study is to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of groundwater recharge based on land cover characteristics within the coastal watershed.

Key words: Coastal area, Climate Change, Groundwater recharge, Vulnerability Assessment, SWAT

Acknowledge

Research for this paper was carried out under the KICT Research Program (project no.20230166-001, Development of coastal groundwater management solution) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT.

How to cite: Woo, S. Y., Chang, S. W., and Kim, M.: Vulnerability assessment of groundwater recharge under extreme climate change in coastal area watershed of South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14589, 2024.

EGU24-15132 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Development of an integrated suite for estimating Intensity Duration Frequency curves in a climate change perspective  

Lisa Napolitano, Guido Rianna, Roberta Padulano, and Valentina Francalanci

This study introduces a comprehensive suite of methodologies for estimating Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves, critical for engineering planning in the face of expected variations in extreme precipitations induced by climate change. Indeed, in recent years the climate proofing design of hydraulic infrastructures (e.g. sewage systems) arose increasing interest but, at the moment, there is a lack of clear understanding of the differences between approaches and the relative weight of the individual phases of the process on the final estimates (approaches to fit the statistical parameters, differences between simulation chains, variations induced by socio-economic scenarios driving climate models). To investigate such issue, four consolidated approaches to assess the potential variations induced by CC in IDF curves are compared: Padulano et al., 2018 [doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13449, QDM-CMCC], Hassanzadeh et al., 2019 [doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.07.001; QQD], Alzahrani et al., 2022 [doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03265-3; EQM], Hassanzadeh et al., 2019 [doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.07.001; SIM]. More specifically: QDM-CMCC combines a simple delta change with quantile delta mapping; the Quantile-Quantile downscaling (QQD) spatiotemporally downscales extreme rainfall quantiles through a parametric relationship; Equidistant Quantile Mapping (EQM) spatiotemporally downscales extreme rainfall quantiles using a two-step parametric procedure; Scale-Invariance Method (SIM) derives the distributions of short-duration local extreme rainfalls based on those of longer duration using the scaling relationships between non-central moments over different rainfall durations.

Precipitation values are provided by 14 climate simulation chains made available in the framework of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative; 1981-2010 is adopted as the current period while, as the future time horizon, 2036-2065 is adopted under three different Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. As pilot case, the reference IDF curve adopted to design hydraulic infrastructures in the Ischia Island (30 km from Naples, Southern Italy) is used.

The investigation is aimed at exploring not only the spread among the findings returned by exploiting the different approaches in a real-world scenario but also to improve the understanding about how the theorical differences in the approaches can lead to very different estimates. Results show that the three main sources of uncertainty (statistical parameter fitting, climate modelling and RCP scenarios) play a comparable role inducing an increasingly evident spread as the return times increase.

Finally, it is worth noting that two libraries in R and Python for the four approaches, available upon request, have been developed to permit assessments over test cases in different precipitation regimes and by exploiting different climate simulation chains to replicate the findings achieved in the present investigation.

 

How to cite: Napolitano, L., Rianna, G., Padulano, R., and Francalanci, V.: Development of an integrated suite for estimating Intensity Duration Frequency curves in a climate change perspective , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15132, 2024.

This research focuses on the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles using climate change scenario data from the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study involved the analysis of precipitation data from 23 global climate models (GCMs), with a final selection of 10 models that best represented the characteristics of extreme precipitation in South Korea, based on statistical measures against observed rainfall data. Particularly, precipitation data from 71 observation points within the Chungju-Dam basin, a region of hydrological significance and susceptibility to extreme weather events, were collected for analyzing climate change impacts.

Furthermore, the study conducted the regional frequency analysis (index-flood method) to estimate rainfall quantiles, employing the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moment method for parameter estimation. The analysis resulted in the development of a multi-model ensemble (MME) incorporating the 10 selected GCMs and 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. This approach facilitated a comprehensive understanding of potential future climate changes, considering emission trajectories and socio-economic changes. Additionally, the study quantitatively evaluated the impact of climate change and associated uncertainties in the region, which is essential for devising adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to climate change conditions, particularly in areas susceptible to extreme weather events. This research provides valuable insights into the understanding of climate-induced extreme weather events and offers guidance for policymakers and environmental planners in preparing for the impacts of global climate change.

How to cite: Kim, S. and Heo, J.-H.: Assessment of extreme precipitation risks using multi-model climate projections: focusing on the Chungju-Dam basin in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16120, 2024.

EGU24-16155 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2 | Highlight

Effect of irrigation on joint evolution of water resources and hydroclimate variables under climate change 

Pedro Arboleda, Agnès Ducharne, Pierre Tiengou, and Frédérique Cheruy

Irrigation is one of the main human landscape management activity, and has seen a dramatic increase during the XXth century, with a direct local increasing effect on soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET). To sustain the increase of ET, irrigation withdraws water from rivers and groundwater reservoirs. As a result, irrigation activities have a direct impact on water and energy balance, and drive the evolution of ET under the ongoing climate change in intensively irrigated regions. On the other hand, irrigation induces feedbacks from the atmosphere, that includes changes in precipitation patterns, air temperature cooling and changes in energy-related variables. Moreover, future climate change will complexify these interactions, and it is not clear what would be the future implications of irrigation activities in water resources management and key hydroclimate variables.

To assess the joint evolution of irrigation, water resources and hydroclimate variables, we use an irrigation scheme that was recently evaluated in ORCHIDEE, the land surface component of the IPSL climate model. This scheme calculates water demand based on a soil moisture deficit approach, and restrains water supply to water available in small and large rivers and in groundwater, considering the facility to access the water source and an environmental volume for ecosystems. To assess the effect of irrigation on water resources and climate, we use two transient coupled simulations at global scale, for the period 1950-2100, under SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario to have a strong climate change signal during the future period. One of the simulations runs with the irrigation scheme activated, while the second one runs without irrigation.

Preliminary results at global scale show that irrigation will increase under the chosen scenario, due to the prescribed increase of the irrigated surface from scenario SSP5-RCP8.5 and a warmer climate. This increase will counteract part of the increasing trend of groundwater storage and will complexify the evolution of river storage in irrigated areas. On the other hand, it will enhance the increase of ET at global scale. We will extend our analysis to water and energy-related variables, including key climate variables like precipitation and air temperature, at different seasons and regions. We will also focus our analysis in some intensively irrigated areas, to assess the causes of possible water supply shortages in irrigation activities. These results should help to understand future implications of irrigation in water resources management in irrigated areas, and also effects in non-irrigated zones via remote land-atmosphere feedbacks.

How to cite: Arboleda, P., Ducharne, A., Tiengou, P., and Cheruy, F.: Effect of irrigation on joint evolution of water resources and hydroclimate variables under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16155, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16155, 2024.

EGU24-16654 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Understanding Changes in Iceland’s Streamflow Dynamics in Response to Climate Change 

Hörður Bragi Helgason, Andri Gunnarsson, Óli Grétar B. Sveinsson, and Bart Nijssen

Anthropogenic climate change is profoundly altering the hydrological cycle in high-latitude regions. Iceland, with its abundant hydrological and glaciological data, provides a unique opportunity to study the effects of climate change on streamflow in snow- and glacier melt dominated catchments. The country's reliance on hydropower, as the top electricity producer per capita globally, highlights the critical need for understanding these changes.

In Iceland, the average temperature has risen significantly in recent decades, outpacing the global warming trend. Despite this warming, increased precipitation has led to more extensive snow cover and depth in some regions. Glaciers have experienced a loss in area and mass, soil temperatures have risen, and vegetation has increased. However, the impacts of these environmental shifts on streamflow remain largely unexplored.

Our study utilizes the newly released LamaH-Ice dataset, encompassing streamflow observations from mainly undisturbed watersheds, atmospheric forcings from climate reanalyses and catchment characteristics, to investigate Iceland's streamflow dynamics changes over recent decades. We analyze annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow volumes, spring freshet timing, and extreme flow events, correlating these changes with environmental conditions and catchment attributes.

The results suggest that streamflow regime alterations are influenced by multiple factors, including geographic location, topography, and river type. The findings offer crucial insights into Iceland's hydrological changes amid rapid climatic shifts, with broader implications for reservoir operations and water resource management. This study not only enhances our understanding of Icelandic hydrology but also contributes to global knowledge on climate-induced hydrological changes.

How to cite: Helgason, H. B., Gunnarsson, A., Sveinsson, Ó. G. B., and Nijssen, B.: Understanding Changes in Iceland’s Streamflow Dynamics in Response to Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16654, 2024.

In order to alleviate the problem of water scarcity, adapt to and mitigate the negative impact of climate change on water resources, large-scale infrastructure projects have been built worldwide. In addition to bringing huge social benefits, reservoirs may also affect meteorological conditions near the surface and mesoscale or weather scale processes. A high-quality meteorological dataset is an important foundation for understanding climate change. Considering the complexity of the underlying surface in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, this study uses CLDAS multi-source fusion grid meteorological data to study the characteristics of changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir before and after water storage. Select four elements: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity, and analyze the climate effects before and after the Three Gorges Reservoir from different time scales such as year, season, and day. Based on the analysis of CLDAS multi-source fusion data, it is shown that for the average temperature, after the water storage, except for the areas along the southern side of the Yangtze River where the temperature is lower than before the water storage, most other areas are higher. On an annual scale, there is not much difference in average temperature before and after water storage. The average temperature effect in the Three Gorges region after water storage varies at different time periods. During the subsidence period and high water level period, it shows an overall warming effect, with an average temperature increase of 0.1 ℃ and 0.3 ℃, respectively. However, during the flood season and water storage period, it shows a cooling effect, with an average temperature decrease of 0.2 ℃ and 0.9 ℃, respectively. The cooling effect is more pronounced during the water storage period. After water storage, it shows an increase in temperature during the day and a decrease in temperature at night. For annual precipitation, except for some areas in the east, northwest, and central regions where precipitation has decreased, most of the remaining areas of the Three Gorges generally have more precipitation than before the water storage. At the annual scale and different time periods, the precipitation in the Three Gorges area is higher after the water storage than before, and on the annual scale, the precipitation after the water storage increases by 8.8% compared to before the water storage; During the subsidence period, flood season, storage period, and high water level period, the precipitation after storage increased by 10.2%, 1.3%, 21.7%, and 32.2% respectively compared to before storage. The precipitation during the high water level period after storage changed the most, while the precipitation during the flood season changed the least.

How to cite: Wang, Q., Chen, X., and Li, W.: Assessment of Climate Effects in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Multi-source Fusion Data CLDAS, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17866, 2024.

The intensification of the water cycle over recent decades has produced changes in hydrologic extremes (floods and droughts) unevenly across the globe and the U.S. is not an exception. This has led to increased interest in coordination amongst federal agencies within the U.S. to improve readiness to respond to and mitigate the effects of these extreme events as well as for the U.S. to increase coordination with our international partners, as evidenced by a recent Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India on extreme precipitation and its effects on water quality, inundation, and flooding. As the nation’s unbiased resource for land-surface information, the U.S. Geological Survey has responded by developing a set of interpretative studies and related datasets to understand changes in floods and droughts, the potential drivers of these changes, and strategies for updating frequency-based statistics for hydrological extremes. This presentation and discussion will highlight recent advancements in data and interpretation on hydrologic extremes as well as the detection of changes in, attribution of, and adjustment for observed changes.

How to cite: Archfield, S.:  U.S. Geological Survey datasets of hydrological extremes and their drivers to enhance security and improve understanding, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21007, 2024.

EGU24-21009 | ECS | PICO | HS1.1.2

Can Trend Tests Detect Changes in Design-Flood Quantiles under Changing Climate? 

Chandramauli Awasthi, Stacey A. Archfield, Brian J. Reich, and Sankarasubramanian Arumugam

To estimate design-flood quantiles, such as the 100-year flood, the observed annual maximum flood (AMF) series is fitted to a probability distribution and then the design flood quantile is estimated from the fitted distribution. This is because, in most cases, historical records are not long enough to observe rare, design-flood events. Changes in the AMF series, which are usually detected using simple trend tests (e.g., Mann-Kendall test (MKT)), are hypothesized to result in changes in  design-flood estimates. This hypothesis is tested by using an alternate framework to detect significant changes in design-flood between two periods – rather than changes in the AMF series – and then evaluated using synthetically generated AMF series from the Log-Pearson Type-3 (LP3) distribution due to changes in moments associated with flood distribution. Synthetic experiments show that the MKT does not consider changes in all three moments of the LP3 distribution and incorrectly detects changes in design-flood. We applied the framework on 31 river basins spread across the United States. Statistically significant changes in design-flood quantiles were observed even without a significant trend in the AMF series and basins with statistically significant trends did not necessarily exhibit statistically significant changes in design-flood. If changes to design-flood quantiles are of interest, this framework can be useful rather than simple trend tests on the AMF series which may or may not indicate changes in the design-flood quantiles have occurred. We are now extending the application of the developed framework to mixed population scenarios where floods are generated from more than one causal mechanism under the hypothesis that two more causal mechanisms result in statistically different design-flood quantile estimates at the same river.

How to cite: Awasthi, C., Archfield, S. A., Reich, B. J., and Arumugam, S.: Can Trend Tests Detect Changes in Design-Flood Quantiles under Changing Climate?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21009, 2024.

A representative example of how extreme rainfall events caused by climate change can be directly recognized is the increase of property damage due to urban flood. This surge in urban flood damage is not merely corresponding to an augmentation in probable rainfall depth but rather a result of urbanization with densely populated and concentrated flooding. Despite this circumstance, we have mostly revolved around increasing the return period, primarily focusing on the augmentation of probable rainfall depth to mitigate the flood damage by climate change. In terms of the temporal distribution of design rainfall, conventional methods such as the Huff method and alternating blocking method are still in use; however, they cannot accurately capture the real rainfall distribution. In this context, we investigate the viability of enhancing design standards by adjusting the temporal distribution of design rainfall without artificially inflating a return period for design. To achieve that, it is necessary to understand the impact of temporal rainfall distribution on the design flood.

We generate 449 dimensionless time-rainfall distributions for short-term(less than 6 hours) and 5,789 for long-term(6 hours or more) durations considering rainfall data from both meteorological observations by the Korea Meteorological Administration and d4PDF(Data for Policy Decision Making for Future) scenarios. Based on these distributions, total 25,860 hyetographs are synthesized for five rainfall durations. We repeatedly estimated the design flood using a rainfall-runoff model, revealing that the peak discharges varied up to 10 times depending on the time-rainfall distribution. Considering that increasing the return period from 50 years to 100 years generally results in only a 10% rise in probable rainfall depths, adjusting the temporal distribution of design rainfall provides a more adaptable approach to increasing design floods. These outcomes have the potential to broaden the perspective for applications of rainfall scenarios in data-based model or establishing the design flood standards.

 

Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant(2022-MOIS61-002(RS-2022-ND 634021)) of ‘Development Risk Prediction Technology of Storm and Flood for Climate Change based on Artificial Intelligence’ funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea).

How to cite: Kim, J. and Hwang, S.: Considering temporal distribution of design rainfall for enhancing urban flood resilience in response to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-45, 2024.

EGU24-1677 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Evaluating the performance of Blue and Green Infrastructures in an urban area through a fine-scale water balance model 

Xuan Wu, Sotirios Moustakas, Nejc Bezak, Matej Radinja, Mark Bryan Alivio, Matjaž Mikoš, Michal Dohnal, Vojtech Bares, and Patrick Willems

Due to climate change and urbanization, increased extreme weather events and impervious urban surfaces have increased flood and drought risks. Blue and Green Infrastructures (BGIs) that can enhance stormwater management can help mitigate these negative effects. Nevertheless, the long-term performance of BGIs in an urban environment still requires further investigation. For this purpose, a fine-scale hydrological model and long-term water balance analysis are necessary. Accordingly, the first objective of this study is to develop a fine-scale water balance model that simulates runoff formation and propagation and incorporates BGIs. The second objective is to perform a long-term water balance analysis to determine the effectiveness of BGIs in mitigating urban floods and droughts.

The proposed water balance model is developed in Python. Model inputs include meteorological data such as rainfall and evapotranspiration, and catchment characteristics such as land use and pipe networks. This model divides the catchment into underground pipe reservoirs and surface reservoirs based on land use. All reservoirs are then connected by upstream and downstream relationships according to topological information. BGIs can be implemented by altering the properties of the reservoirs where they are proposed. To calculate the generated runoff, the continuous Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is used in permeable reservoirs with infiltration capability, whereas the single-bucket approach is employed in impermeable reservoirs. The continuous CN method utilizes a dynamic CN and accounts for the recovery of initial abstraction between storms. In the single-bucket approach, all impermeable reservoirs are assumed to have inputs, outputs, and a certain amount of storage capacity. Rainfall and inflow from upstream reservoirs can be considered inputs, while discharge to downstream reservoirs and reuse for rain tanks can be considered outputs. These two rainfall-runoff calculation methods are validated by using monitoring data provided by the Czech Technical University in Prague and the University of Ljubljana, respectively, on green roofs and an urban park. After calculating runoff, the linear reservoir function is used as the runoff routing approach to simulate stormwater propagation according to reservoir connection relationships. Following the above processes, the water balance for the catchment can be analyzed, accounting for evapotranspiration, infiltration, reuse, overflow, and discharge at the catchment outlet.

The case study is done for the campus “Arenberg III” at the University of Leuven (KU Leuven) in Belgium. Three BGIs are proposed: permeable pavements, rain tanks and green roofs. Then five BGI scenarios are developed to evaluate the effectiveness of both single BGIs and combined BGIs: (1) campus without new BGIs, (2) every building has a green roof, (3) each building has a rain tank, (4) replacing impermeable parking lots with permeable pavements, and (5) all the BGIs listed above are implemented. The long-term water balance analysis is performed for the period 2010-2019. Initial results show that the combined BGIs scenario (5) yields the best results, as it can significantly reduce runoff and overflow, as well as provide substantial rainwater reuse and infiltration. Therefore, combining BGIs with different functions can be effective in mitigating both urban floods and droughts.

How to cite: Wu, X., Moustakas, S., Bezak, N., Radinja, M., Alivio, M. B., Mikoš, M., Dohnal, M., Bares, V., and Willems, P.: Evaluating the performance of Blue and Green Infrastructures in an urban area through a fine-scale water balance model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1677, 2024.

EGU24-2114 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Development of a water storage toolbox for surface-induced near-nature managed groundwater recharge 

Jan Stautzebach, Jörg Steidl, and Christoph Merz

Water stress is increasing in Northeast Germany due to climate change. New approaches for water management are needed to mitigate the impacts on the water resources. Therefore, our study deals with the development of a web-based toolbox to manage subsurface water storage by artificial groundwater recharge with focus on the lower catchment of the river Spree in the federal state of Brandenburg.

Our approach is based on a systematic combination of site selection criteria and spatial data on land use, soil, groundwater and potential water sources. The aim is to provide relevant information for the preliminary planning of managed groundwater recharge measures by authorities and water suppliers. This includes a wide range of project scales that can be covered by the tool. However, as necessary volumes for large scale recharge projects are unlikely to be found in concentrated form, small scale projects with low demand of infrastructure and energy, are of main concern. Considering surpluses from runoff and surface waters, also caused by extreme weather events, suitable locations for surface-induced recharge will be identified. Thereby, solutions with low environmental impact, like the use of natural depressions for recharge, are highlighted to the user. This will allow for a stabilization of the local water balance, induced by a large number of low impact measures.

Supported by additional modelling-based indications for implementation, efficiency and costs, as well as simplified site selection through a query system, the toolbox will offer an initial knowledge for such planning considerations.

How to cite: Stautzebach, J., Steidl, J., and Merz, C.: Development of a water storage toolbox for surface-induced near-nature managed groundwater recharge, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2114, 2024.

EGU24-2557 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Advancing water resource resilience through agroforestry 

Siham El Garroussi, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christopher Barnard, Francesca Di Giuseppe, and Cinzia Mazzetti

Future climate change is expected to exacerbate hydrological drought in many parts of Europe, making effective management of water resources more imperative to ensure groundwater sustainability. The EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 suggests a strategic target to turn at least 10% of the EU’s agricultural areas into high-diversity landscape features like hedges and trees. 
In this study, we investigate how afforestation would affect hydrological conditions in Europe under climate change, focusing on three scenarios: (1) an hypothetical extreme scenario transforming all agricultural land into forests under current climate, (2) a more realistic scenario aligning with the EU biodiversity strategy which envisages converting 10% of the land under current climate, and (3) a scenario involving the conversion of 10% of agricultural land into forests, but under a climate that is 2°C warmer. 
We use the LISFLOOD hydrological model setup across Europe at a spatial resolution of ~2km forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature over a time period of 1991-2020 under the current climate scenario. The results were evaluated as changes in evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, and river discharge peaks. The findings from the afforestation scenario indicated a rise in evapotranspiration, higher groundwater levels, and diminished river flow peaks, suggesting an improvement in water sustainability as well as an increased resilience to flooding. This study highlights the hydrological benefits of strategic land use changes, offering key insights for European water resource management and policy formulation in the face of climate change.

How to cite: El Garroussi, S., Wetterhall, F., Barnard, C., Di Giuseppe, F., and Mazzetti, C.: Advancing water resource resilience through agroforestry, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2557, 2024.

EGU24-4675 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Modelling the impact of beaver dams on hydrological extremes following the re-introduction of beavers in England  

Benjamin Jackson, Alan Puttock, Diego Panici, and Richard Brazier

The Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) is being reintroduced to Great Britain after an absence of ~400 years. Beavers are well known for their considerable engineering capabilities. Given the right conditions, beavers construct dams, excavate channels and maintain wetlands. These changes have been demonstrated to have a significant impact upon hydrological extremes in the English environment. There is the potential for beaver re-introduction to have a transformative impact as a widespread nature-based solution (NBS). However, there is a need for policy and management relevant understanding at a national level.

Funded by the Environment Agency in England, the aim of this study was to use a modelling approach to be able to estimate how catchments in England may respond to extreme events following the re-introduction of beavers. To accomplish this, we have applied the 2D version of the hydraulic model HEC-RAS to sites across England. Sites were selected that had the potential for beavers to construct dams.

Beaver dams are represented within HEC-RAS by digitising a series of weirs intersected by culverts, allowing water to leak through the dam as well as overtopping the weir. To account for uncertainty in dam properties, we configured the model to simulate different configurations of dam height, as well as the “leakiness” of each dam.

Using the approach described, HEC-RAS was used to simulate the impact of hypothetical beaver dams on storm events of different magnitudes in addition to low flow scenarios. Results suggest that the impact of beaver dam sequences on hydrology is highly dependent on channel and floodplain topography.

We were then able to apply these results to produce an estimation of the impact of beavers on flow regimes at any river stretch in England. This was estimated for three scenarios with high, moderate and low presence of beavers across England. It is hoped that these modelling tools can be used to strategically determine where and how beavers may be able to provide a hydrological NBS and where supporting their wetland creation could be most valuable.

How to cite: Jackson, B., Puttock, A., Panici, D., and Brazier, R.: Modelling the impact of beaver dams on hydrological extremes following the re-introduction of beavers in England , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4675, 2024.

EGU24-5054 | Orals | HS1.1.3

Coupling stormwater protection and aquifer recharge 

Thomas Baumann and Lea Augustin

Stormwater in small catchments is a threat to agricultural land use and civilization. Increasing ambient temperatures increase the risks for severe rainfall and surface runoff and reduce the amount of groundwater recharge. At the same time, the demand for irrigation water is rising. This development calls for integrated strategies for stormwater protection and aquifer recharge.

In this contribution, we present a case study for a technical solution to infiltrate stormwater into the local aquifer. The site is located in an area well known for hop cultivation. The aquifers are located in tertiary sediments, which are covered with loess and are sometimes semi-confined. Hydraulic conductivities are in the 10-4 m/s range, and specific storage coefficients are between 10-6 (confined) and 0.2 (unconfined). Current stormwater protection plans include retention basins with a capacity of 5500 m³, not all of them fully functional, and flooding events were recorded two times per year. Demand for irrigation was 64 mm for the past five years, with peaks of 118 mm in 2022. Even if only the extreme rainfall events would be recharged into the aquifer, an area of 5-10 ha could be irrigated from the infiltrated water, assuming one extreme event. This is a significant amount of the area (15%) used for hop cultivation around the storage site.

Specific challenges at this site are the flood dynamics, the uncontrolled surface runoff, which brings a lot of fines, and the water quality with regard to fertilizers and pesticides. This requires small settling ponds or intermediate storage facilities and adsorbers. Most of the used products, however, have a medium to strong tendency to adsorb on organic carbon and even inorganic materials. The hydrogeological model indicates that the flood water can be infiltrated at high volumetric flow rates without risking upwelling groundwater tables. A detailed site investigation will be completed by mid-2024.

How to cite: Baumann, T. and Augustin, L.: Coupling stormwater protection and aquifer recharge, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5054, 2024.

EGU24-5105 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Revealing the role of Nature-based Solutions as drought adaptation strategies 

Claudia Bertini, Muhammad Haris Ali, Andreja Jonoski, Ioana Popescu, and Schalk Jan van Andel

Climate change has caused an increase in the frequency of hydrometeorological extremes world-wide, opening new challenges for decision makers and stakeholders in managing and regulating water. Among the adaptation strategies available, Nature-based Solutions (NBSs) gained increasing attention in recent years, because of their efficiency in reducing hydrometeorological risks while also providing additional benefits for biodiversity, landscape and society. Despite the ever-increasing interest for NBSs, many stakeholders still doubt their potential, as the quantitative effects of NBSs over long periods of time are still to be assessed.

In this research, we show how several types of NBSs, such as wetlands restoration, infiltration ponds, ditch blocking and others, can be used to adapt to drought conditions under the future climate projections. We use as a pilot case the transboundary Aa of Weerijs catchment, shared between Belgium and the Netherlands, which recently became drought-prone. We develop a fully distributed coupled MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 model to mimic the hydrological behaviour of the catchment in present (2010-2019) and future climate conditions (2050-2059, scenario KNMI ‘23). The same hydrological model is then used to test the effectiveness of different drought adaptation measures, based on single type or combinations of NBSs. To quantify the impacts of the chosen strategies to adapt to drought conditions and in consultation with some local stakeholders, we define a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that provide tangible results for stakeholders and decision makers. Finally, we show the results of the different adaptation strategies implemented on a web-app, which can be accessed and used by decision makers and stakeholders as an aid tool to select the best adaption strategy.

This research has been developed within the project EIFFEL (Revealing the role of GEOSS as the default digital portal for building climate change adaptation and mitigation applications, https://www.eiffel4climate.eu/), funded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement Νο 101003518.

How to cite: Bertini, C., Ali, M. H., Jonoski, A., Popescu, I., and van Andel, S. J.: Revealing the role of Nature-based Solutions as drought adaptation strategies, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5105, 2024.

EGU24-5423 | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Enhancing groundwater recharge in face of hydrological extremes: assessment of stormwater managed aquifer recharge potential in Flemish drinking water protection zones (Belgium) 

Lara Speijer, Simon Six, Bas van der Grift, Gijsbert Cirkel, Goedele Verreydt, Jef Dams, and Marijke Huysmans

Flanders (Belgium) is expected to experience more severe drought and flooding events in face of climate change. Infiltration to increase groundwater recharge is therefore adopted as policy strategy to deal with both hydrological extremes. Stormwater provides an interesting water source for managed aquifer recharge, given the high urbanization and imperviousness level of the region. Furthermore, the historical ban on infiltration in groundwater protection zones for drinking water production has been removed to encourage infiltration practices. This could potentially enhance groundwater recharge in the groundwater abstraction zones, but concerns remain regarding the impacts on groundwater quality due to the potential contamination of stormwater with a wide range of pollutants originating from traffic, building materials, weed control and other more diffuse sources.

Therefore, tools need to be developed to weigh out benefits of groundwater replenishment relative to potential groundwater quality risks. This research aims to contribute to the knowledge on the hydrological aspects of this quantity-quality balancing exercise by investigating the potential of stormwater managed aquifer recharge to replenish the groundwater system in Flemish groundwater protection zones. For this, potential stormwater volumes that could supply managed aquifer recharge are calculated and compared to the actual groundwater recharge and pumping volumes for drinking water production to assess the significance of this practice in protection zones.

Results indicate a variable, but high stormwater infiltration potential in Flemish protection zones, providing up to 29% extra groundwater recharge in all protection zones combined. Furthermore, this practice could compensate up to 32% of abstracted phreatic drinking water volumes. Locally, the potential can be higher, reaching 100% in protection zones located in highly urbanized areas, including zones around the city of Leuven. Stormwater infiltration can therefore be considered as an important drought adaptation measure in Flemish protection zones, given the same order of magnitude of stormwater and pumping volumes in these areas. However, recent studies raise concern on the occurrence of organic micropollutants in stormwater and data in the Dutch and Flemish setting is insufficient. Therefore, additional research on occurrence and fate of these substances is needed.

How to cite: Speijer, L., Six, S., van der Grift, B., Cirkel, G., Verreydt, G., Dams, J., and Huysmans, M.: Enhancing groundwater recharge in face of hydrological extremes: assessment of stormwater managed aquifer recharge potential in Flemish drinking water protection zones (Belgium), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5423, 2024.

EGU24-5542 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Is drought protection possible without compromising flood protection? Estimating the maximum dual-use benefit of flood reservoirs in Southwest Germany 

Sarah Ho, Chantal Kipp, Hans Goeppert, Johannes Hoefer, Frank Seidel, and Uwe Ehret

As climate change drives intensification and increased frequency of hydrological extremes, the need to balance drought resilience and flood protection becomes critical for proper water resources management. Recent extreme droughts in the last decade in Germany have caused significant damages to ecosystems and human society, prompting renewed interest in sustainable water resources management. At the same time, protection from floods such as the catastrophic 2021 event in the Ahr Valley remain heavy in the public conscience. In the state of Baden-Württemberg in Southwestern Germany alone, over 600 small (< 1 million m3) to medium-sized (1-10 million m3) reservoirs are currently operated for flood protection. In this study, we investigate optimal reservoir operating (storage and release) rules in a dual flood-drought protection scheme for selected modeled flood reservoirs in Baden-Württemberg. Daily target releases for drought protection are proposed based on modeled inflows from the calibrated hydrological model LARSIM. In a first step, the reservoir operation is optimized in a scenario of perfect knowledge of the future by using  meteorological observations as artificial weather forecasts in LARSM. The results of different operating rules are then evaluated based on their adherence to the target releases and flood protection performance. Rulesets that result in worsened flood protection relative to the current (flood-only) operation were eliminated as potential operation schemes. Based on provisional results, we will present and discuss the maximum potential benefit of adapting and retrofitting existing flood reservoirs for drought water storage.

How to cite: Ho, S., Kipp, C., Goeppert, H., Hoefer, J., Seidel, F., and Ehret, U.: Is drought protection possible without compromising flood protection? Estimating the maximum dual-use benefit of flood reservoirs in Southwest Germany, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5542, 2024.

EGU24-6391 | Orals | HS1.1.3

Enhancing Flood Resilience: Geomorphological Insights into Lowland Riverscapes for Nature-Based Solutions 

Inci Güneralp, Mahbub Hasan, Rakibul Ahasan, Billy Hales, and Anthony Filippi

Aimed at achieving environmentally and economically smart growth in lowland riverscapes in the face of exacerbating flood threats, the elements of natural riverscapes, such as floodplain landforms, riparian forests, and wetlands can provide solutions to flood risk reduction. Geomorphological knowledge is crucial to working effectively with river processes and landforms in addressing flood hazards. In addition to unique landforms and habitats that can support flood mitigation, landscape-level geomorphological characteristics, such as geomorphological heterogeneity and connectivity, can also impact the attenuation and retention of downstream fluxes of water, sediment, and other materials, and thus resistance and resilience to floods. In this study, we employ a geomorphological approach to delineate the natural elements of lowland riverscapes as geomorphological habitats to assess their susceptibility to floods and erosion/sedimentation as well as their capacity to alleviate the negative impacts of floods. To delineate geomorphological habitats, we utilize a range of classification approaches and geospatial data including LiDAR-derived digital terrain models, airborne and satellite images, raster/vector data on vegetation, soils, and land-cover land-use. We then quantify the diversity, heterogeneity, and connectivity of delineated habitats using landscape ecological approaches and in the context of flood impacts and mitigation. Our geomorphological approach to riverscape characterization provides new insights on fundamental knowledge of natural elements as geomorphological habitats and their interconnections and interdependencies. This new knowledge has a high potential for developing geomorphologically derived nature-based solutions to flood management and enhancing flood resilience of lowland riverscapes.

How to cite: Güneralp, I., Hasan, M., Ahasan, R., Hales, B., and Filippi, A.: Enhancing Flood Resilience: Geomorphological Insights into Lowland Riverscapes for Nature-Based Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6391, 2024.

Water is an essential natural resource for human survival and development. In recent years, global climate change has led to noticeable shifts in rainfall patterns. In Taiwan, the gap between wet and dry years has gradually widened, and rainfall has become shorter in duration but more intense. This has increased the frequency of spring droughts in Taiwan. Hence, there is an urgent need to propose a new water utilization model.

The bucket model is employed to estimate parameters that are challenging to measure, while Bayesian networks are utilized to establish causal relationships among environmental factors. In addition, Bayesian Network is a systematic network based on conditional probability for constructing relationships between factors. It has been shown to capture crucial groundwater flow properties and uncertainties in groundwater systems. This study seeks to alter the previous management strategy, which prioritized the use of surface water during the rainy season. Consequently, two distinct theoretical models were established for comparison. Model 1 gives precedence to surface water usage, whereas Model 2 prioritizes groundwater usage. Compare the remaining water in surface and groundwater before the next rainy season. The results indicate that, under 'high' conditions, the capacity of groundwater and surface water in Model 2 will be 18% greater than in Model 1. This is attributed to groundwater resources flowing to the surface or serving as a source of submarine groundwater discharge due to saturated aquifers. Additionally, Bayesian networks were employed to conduct a sensitivity analysis of factors. The two most influential factors on the target node are rainfall and groundwater inflow and outflow from the outside area.

How to cite: Lai, C. C. and Lin, Y. C.: Conjunctive management strategies of groundwater and surface Water: a case study of meinong reservoir in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7123, 2024.

EGU24-7837 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Study of Nature-Based Solutions for the Huang River Watershed 

Guan-Yu Lin, Kuo-Wei Liao, Pohsaun Lin, Kai-Lun Wei, and Tsungyu Hsieh

In response to the increasingly complex challenges faced by our environment and society, there's a paradigm shift in flood management practices within the field of hydraulic engineering. Traditional approaches using gray infrastructure are giving way to Nature-based Solutions (NbS), which prioritize sustainability and ecosystem-based approaches. Despite widespread discussions about NbS potential, there's a lack of a clear framework for its application and evaluation. This paper aims to apply Nature-based Solutions (NbS) measures for the Huang River Watershed, located in northern Taiwan. A clear process for planning and assessing the benefits of NbS is established while providing relevant case studies as demonstrations. The planning process thoroughly considers the opinions of stakeholders. To evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented measures, several methods such as hydraulic modeling using HEC-RAS 2D, ecosystem service assessment via Integrate Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), and flood risk analysis through reliability analysis are adopted. Results shown that the designed wetland can reduce the flooded area downstream of the Huang River by 9.86% for a 50-year flood and by 3.95% for a 2-year flood; the designed wetland will increase carbon storage by 75.74% and reduce soil erosion by 50.77%, while habitat quality will be maintained at a similar level and the probability of flooding reduces to 3%. By leveraging the above assessment methods, this study can bridge the gap between engineering and ecological conservation fields via demonstrating the benefits of NbS implementation. The outcomes of this research are intended to serve as a valuable reference for future studies and inform decision-making processes related to similar projects.

How to cite: Lin, G.-Y., Liao, K.-W., Lin, P., Wei, K.-L., and Hsieh, T.: Study of Nature-Based Solutions for the Huang River Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7837, 2024.

EGU24-9875 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Dewatering and Treatment of Domestic Sewage Sludge Using Constructed Reed Bed  

Tahra Al-Rashdi

Sultanate of Oman produces a high volume of wastewater on a daily basis. Since conventional / mechanical wastewater treatment methods are mostly used in the country, a respectively high volume of sludge by-product is also generated daily. Sludge is defined as a mixture of water, organic matter and inorganic matter resulting from the biological treatment of wastewater. Oman manages the generation of sludge by discharging about 84% of it in the landfills, especially the Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) located outside the capital city of the country (Muscat Governorate), while about 16% of produced sludge is collected by Oman Water and Wastewater Services company and is further processed through composting to produce a fertilizer (‘Kala’ brand name).

For these reasons, revolutionary and cost-effective means and ways are needed to manage the sludge for environmentally friendly sound disposal and reuse. One of the promising and state-of-the-art sustainable technologies is the constructed wetland technology for dewatering and stabilization of sludge. The Sludge Treatment Wetland (STW) system depends on the type of substrate, type of plants and microbial communities that play an important role in the treatment and dewatering of the sludge. In addition, it contributes to the decentralized management of sludge, a parameter that is crucial for small and medium STPs.

This study focuses on the construction of STWs, i.e., vertical flow constructed wetland designed for sludge dewatering, using local common reed plants (Phragmites Australis) to treat activated sludge from Alseeb STP. A pilot scale experiment was conducted in an agricultural experiment station. This study is the first one in Oman and across the Arabic peninsula that tests the STW technology. The study consisted of 18 mesocosms tanks. Each tank has dimensions of 89 cm in height and 0.5 m² surface area. The freeboard in each tank was 54 cm above the top gravel layer. The units are filled with substrate media from top to bottom: 15 cm fine gravel (2-6 mm), 15 cm medium gravel (15-25 mm) 5 cm and drainage layer of cobbles (40-60mm). Two plastic tubes extending vertically with an open top are embedded in the bottom of each unit. The various units have different construction and operation parameters such as planted and unplanted beds (i.e., presence and absence of plants) and three different sludge loading rates (SLR; 75, 100, 125 kg/m²/year).

The results showed the dewatering efficiency reached 97% for the planted STWs compared to 91% for the unplanted beds. The total solids content in the dewatered sludge for the three SLRs (75, 100 and 125 m²/kg/year) were between 23 -56%, 16-57% and 11-42%, respectively. These first results demonstrate that a high total solid content in the dewatered sludge can be achieved even at a relatively high SLR of 100 m²/kg/year after almost 2 years of operation. This means that the dry content can be further increased in the final resting phase that is going to be applied before the emptying of the biosolids from the units.

How to cite: Al-Rashdi, T.: Dewatering and Treatment of Domestic Sewage Sludge Using Constructed Reed Bed , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9875, 2024.

Droughts are classified as the most expensive climate disasters as they leave long-term and chronic impacts on the ecosystem, agriculture, and human society. The frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events have shown a historical increase and are projected to escalate globally, continentally, and regionally in the future. Nature-based solutions (NBS) are highlighted as effective solutions to cope with the future impacts of these events. Until now, there has been a lack of a comprehensive suitability mapping framework that considers drought-specific criteria. To address this gap, a novel framework is introduced, targeting the identification of suitable areas for two drought-mitigating NBS types—detention basins and managed aquifer recharge—on a regional scale. 

This new framework incorporates diverse criteria to specifically address drought conditions. For example, by incorporating climate change scenarios for both surface and groundwater, it identifies suitable and sustainable locations capable of managing extreme drought events. Executed through Boolean logic at a regional scale in Flanders (Belgium), the framework's strict approach yields significant potential areas for detention basins (298.7 km²) and managed aquifer recharge (867.5 km²). Incorporating multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) with the same criteria introduces a higher degree of flexibility for decision-makers. This approach shows a notable expansion across Flanders, varying with the level of suitability. The results underscore the highly suitable potential for detention basins (2840.2 km²) and managed aquifer recharge (2538,7 km²), emphasizing the adaptability and scalability of the framework for addressing drought in the region.

How to cite: De Trift, L. and Yimer, E. A.: Framework for identifying large-scale Nature-Based Solutions for drought mitigation: regional application in Flanders , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10085, 2024.

Combining flood dams with aquifer recharge may enhance water resource sustainability, flood protection and drought prevention. In an off-stream reservoir with a high seepage rate, some of the stored surface water can infiltrate into the aquifer. The recharged water can later supplement the water released from the reservoir to fulfill the requested water demand. In such cases, optimal reservoir management requires consideration of the leakage losses (aquifer recharge rate). In this study, a methodology, based on the combination of a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model (MODFLOW, Harbaugh et al., 2017) for simulating reservoir-aquifer interaction, and an optimization model, for the reservoir operation management considering surface/groundwater interactions is presented. The groundwater flow model was developed by means of the FREEWAT platform (Rossetto et al., 2018) and used to obtain a leakage function representing the reservoir's leakage loss to the aquifer in response to different water levels in the reservoir. The leakage function is embedded to the reservoir mass balance equation in the optimization model. The optimal policy was derived based on maximizing the reservoir's water yield while considering different constraints such as the water demand and storage constraints. The modeling method proposed in this study was applied to an off-stream artificial lake located atop an alluvial aquifer in the north-east of Iran. The reservoir was built to store the flood flows of the Bar river for water supply for domestic and industrial needs and with the secondary objective to intentionally recharge the aquifer. Based on the results, the distance between the total demand (12 Mm3/year) and optimal release from the reservoir (5.7 Mm3/year) could be largely supplied by groundwater via pumping wells while the aquifer recharge provided by the leakage is 7.26 Mm3/year. This study demonstrates that the possibility to move surface water to aquifers offers an opportunity to better manage water resources, increase water supply reliability and resiliency (Joodavi et al., 2020). Furthermore, the methodology presented can be tailored for application to any reservoir (artificial lake) system, enhancing its operational, planning, and management aspects. This allows for a precise evaluation of the impact of operational policies on lakebed seepage.

References

  • Rossetto, R., De Filippis, G., Borsi, I., Foglia, L., Cannata, M., Criollo, R., Vázquez-Suñé, E., 2018. Integrating free and open source tools and distributed modelling codes in GIS environment for data-based groundwater management. Environ. Model. Software 107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.06.007
  • Harbaugh AW, Langevin CD, Hughes JD, Niswonger RN, Konikow LF, 2017. MODFLOW-2005 version 1.12.00, the U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater model: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 03 February 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7RF5S7G
  • Joodavi A, Izady A, Karbasi Maroof MT, Majidi M, Rossetto R, 2020. Deriving optimal operational policies for off-stream man-made reservoir considering conjunctive use of surface- and groundwater at the Bar dam reservoir (Iran), Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 31, 100725, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100725

How to cite: Joodavi, A. and Rossetto, R.: Study on operation strategy for a multi-objective off-stream reservoir with large lakebed seepage to enhance climate resilience , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10272, 2024.

EGU24-11325 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Indicators for anthropogenic and natural water contributions to a small river 

Malina Ruck, Lea Augustin, and Thomas Baumann

River quality is expected to change significantly as a consequence of climate change. Extended drought periods and decreasing groundwater levels will lower the contribution of groundwater to receiving streams and heavy rain will cause excessive surface runoff effects. Constant sources, like discharge from wastewater treatment plants or industrial installations, will be diluted in largely different ratios. The overall hydrochemical dynamics will, therefore, likely increase. This affects flood management schemes and other potential uses of river water.

 

This study links trace substances (hydrochemistry, colloids) to the hydrological dynamics in the catchment. From this data the feasibility of infiltrating excess river water into a nearby aquifer (Flood-MAR) is assessed. The upper part of the study area is characterized by forests and meadows. There is a small village with one sewage treatment plant (1000 inhabitant equivalents) and a few hamlets. Additional emissions can be expected from surface runoff of one national road (deicing, tire abrasion, etc.).

 

The hydrochemical characteristics show a decrease in the main cations and anions during a flooding event. Nitrate concentrations were low in both cases. Although particle concentrations were increasing during the flooding event, the overall concentrations were still below our expectations. This indicates that the meadows behind the retention dam, which were partly flooded, served as a settling ponds and filters. During low water conditions, organic material and algae were dominant. Few calcite particles and silicates are indicative of the composition of the quaternary gravels that make up the aquifer.

 

The results confirm the risk assessment of the study area. The water quality during a flooding event met the legal thresholds set in the German Soil Protection Act, so infiltration into the downstream aquifer should be feasible.

How to cite: Ruck, M., Augustin, L., and Baumann, T.: Indicators for anthropogenic and natural water contributions to a small river, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11325, 2024.

EGU24-11339 | Orals | HS1.1.3

Co-benefit valuation of urban and peri-urban nature in high resolution on continental scale 

Roland Löwe, Martina Viti, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Jacob Ladenburg

Space is a highly valued asset in cities. This is a key reason why nature-based solutions (NBS) for water management are often perceived to be more expensive than traditional grey
solutions. Promoting NBS implementation requires methods for quantifying their non-market benefits that are widely accepted and easy-to-apply in early planning and brainstorming stages.

In this work, we develop a predictive metamodel for the total economic value of urban and peri-urban nature, based on 114 stated-preference valuation studies of nature in (peri-)urban areas and openly available geographic data from across the world. The dataset covers the entire range of NBS types with sizes from 0.5 to 900.000 ha. We employ a mixed-effects modelling approach and use a cross-validation procedure to determine which factors affect the willingness to pay for (peri-)urban nature. We consider the predictive performance of 8.4 million model permutations that consider different combinations of site properties and topographic and socio-economic characteristics of the surroundings as input.

We find that the total economic value is determined by the size of the nature areas and population densities in their surroundings. There is clear evidence for substitution effects where available nature areas reduce the willingness to pay for new nature. Beyond the dependency on area, there is little evidence for making distinctions between nature types. Economic values do depend on the average income at a site, but these variations are entirely captured by purchase power corrections. Our value estimates are aligned with related literature and range between 150 and 400,000 USD/ha/year. We have implemented our metamodel into a freely available Python program, which generates maps of the predicted values for any location in Europe in a spatial resolution of 100m.

How to cite: Löwe, R., Viti, M., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., and Ladenburg, J.: Co-benefit valuation of urban and peri-urban nature in high resolution on continental scale, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11339, 2024.

The implementation of Natural Flood Management (NFM) measures theoretically provides an opportunity to build resilience into flood risk management systems in a way that incorporates sustainable practices and holistic management of the landscape. However, there remains a lack of clear understanding of these solutions, and in practice this can hinder the uptake of NFM;  there is a need to expand the emerging evidence base in order to quantify and demonstrate their effectiveness in a range of catchment and storm event scenarios.

This study focuses on an NFM scheme implemented across a 22km2 rural, lowland catchment in Lincolnshire, UK. An additional 46,000m3 of storage has been created through the construction of five offline attenuation ponds and a number of field-edge swales alongside the channel network. Land management practices in this catchment have resulted in significant modifications to the hydrological processes through historical realignment and modification of the channel network, intensive agricultural practices and the installation of tile drainage beneath arable fields. The Swaton Eau catchment is located in a lowland area with an elevation range of less than 50m across the catchment. It is important to investigate how NFM features are expected to perform in catchments that are characterised by hydro-modifications and low gradients as there currently is a lack of research of this.

An array of monitoring has been installed across the catchment in a nested structure to gather empirical evidence on the performance of the NFM scheme both at a feature scale and at a wider sub-catchment and catchment scale. Water level sensors are located throughout the channel network to track the propagation of the peak flood level. Transects of soil moisture sensors are buried in the shallow sub-surface in chosen swales to monitor short time-scale movement of water through these features.

The first major test of the features occurred in October 2023 during Storm Babet and Storm Ciaran. Field evidence indicates that the flood wave was attenuated through the catchment with a less flashy catchment response observed compared to a pre-NFM event in 2012. Soil moisture data collected within the swales indicates that they are intercepting pathways of water through the catchment and preventing runoff entering the surface water drainage network.

How to cite: Lewis, C. and Pattison, I.: Understanding the role of natural flood management in a ‘not-so-natural’ catchment: field observations of an NFM scheme in rural, lowland Lincolnshire, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11525, 2024.

Groundwater is considered worldwide an important and resilient reserve of freshwater for human needs. The increasing demand, combined with climate change impacts, is leading to a remarkable quali-quantitative decay of water resource, especially in many megacities of the Global South, where the rapid urban growing pushed to environmental critical issues as the case of seawater intrusion for coastal aquifers. At the same time, the uncontrolled urbanization without a territorial planning favors the runoff and places ever greater areas in hydraulic danger, increasing the risk of flooding in currently inhabited areas. Dar es Salaam, in Sub-Saharan Africa, is one of these cases: a city of more than 4 million of inhabitants, with a population growth rate of about 5 per cent per year. A high dependence on natural resources ecosystems is mainly due to hybrid rural-urban livelihoods. The urban pressure on the aquifer caused a serious threat on water quality and quantity due to saline intrusion along the coastline, with depletion of groundwater levels and contamination of pumping wells. Moreover, the increasing risk of water scarcity and flooding due to climate change is threatening the local community, with an increasing need for adaptation measures. Catchment imperviousness of Mbezi River basin increased by 41% (2003-16), causing floods, erosion, land and marine pollution.

A new vision needs to integrate the groundwater management strategies, already proposed in the context of the “Adapting to Climate Change in Coastal Dar es Salaam” (ACC-DAR) project, with surface water management too. Aim of this feasibility study is to outline a strategy for a sustainable water management in the Dar Es Salaam territory, through the planning of MAR (Managed Aquifer Recharge) solutions in specific areas. This approach could be helpful to solve or, at least, mitigate the impact of both flooding and groundwater overexploitation in the area, allowing to support stakeholders and public government in implementing local policies and proposing a more sustainable use of the resource.

 

How to cite: De Filippi, F. M. and Sappa, G.: A new planning strategy for integrating surface water and groundwater management to face climate change impacts in the Dar Es Salaam Plain, Tanzania (Africa)., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11760, 2024.

In Canada’s Western Boreal Plain, catchment runoff is typically low but spatially variable. Localized landscape soil and vegetation cover types, along with the hydrophysical properties of underlying glacial deposits and regional slopes, are important controls for the partitioning of precipitation into runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. Wetlands are abundant, covering up to 50% of the landscape, despite a regional sub-humid climate. Local topographic highs, including Stony Mountain, have been identified as water generation hotspots, with the goal of this research to evaluate the hydrology and importance of small headwater catchments on a local topographic high for water generation and availability in downgradient systems.

Hydrologic interactions between forestlands and adjacent wetlands were characterized and related to observations of small-scale (headwater) catchment runoff dynamics within the Stony Mountain Headwater Catchment Observatory (SMHCO) in northern Alberta, Canada. Catchment runoff efficiency, or runoff coefficients (i.e., the proportion of rainfall the is produced as runoff), were evaluated for 40 events across six wetland-dominated catchments ranging in size from <0.5 km2 to ~ 200 km2. Water table configurations indicated varying exchanges among forested hillslopes and adjacent wetland systems, with the magnitude of runoff response to rainfall events controlled largely by antecedent water table configurations. Small (<10 km2) headwater catchments demonstrated highly variable runoff efficiencies, ranging from 10 to 90% (average 35%). Larger meso-scale catchments (up to 200 km2) demonstrated lower runoff efficiency (average = 25%; range 10 to 40%). The higher catchment runoff efficiencies observed in smaller headwater catchments identifies these regions as highly productive regions for water generation on a per-unit area basis. Accordingly, the findings of this research demonstrates that smaller sub-catchments within headwater regions of larger catchments represent an important area for water supply and availability for down-gradient ecosystems and water courses.   

How to cite: Ketcheson, S. and Attema, J.: The importance of headwater catchments for water availability in the lower Athabasca River Basin, Canada., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11839, 2024.

EGU24-12100 | Posters virtual | HS1.1.3

Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological extremes in South Asian countries: Current practices, gaps, and opportunities  

Md Humayain Kabir, Md Arif Chowdhury, Md Nazmul Hossen, Shahpara Nawaz, Syed Labib Ul Islam, and Md Lokman Hossain

South Asian countries are highly susceptible to different forms of hydro-meteorological extremes (HMEs) like cyclones, storm surges, floods, erosion, sea level rise, etc., while changing patterns of climate variability also make the situations worse. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in different forms, like mangrove forests, coral reefs, salt marshes, beach nourishment, reforestation and afforestation, wetland restoration, etc., can help to reduce the magnitude of impacts. This study was conducted in South Asia countries to understand the existing practices, challenges, and potentiality of NbS regarding HMEs. The findings of sea level rise-induced extreme events are summarized as follows: (a) Significance of coastal ecosystems in mitigating impacts of HMEs, (b) NbS approaches for coastal protection and restoration, (c) Co-benefits of NbS for coastal protection and restoration, (d) Coastal Protection and NbS: South Asia Perspective- (i) Current practices of NbS to protect the coastal region, (ii) Challenges to ensure NbS regarding coastal protection, and (iii) Potentiality of NbS to protect the coastal region.

Unusual rainfall patterns and their connection to landslides, along with the environmental and socioeconomic consequences and threats to vulnerable groups, are examined. We also delve into NbS interventions that stabilize slopes and prevent erosion-related events, emphasizing the significance of early warning systems, community-based strategies, and disaster preparedness measures to enhance resistance and resilience. Case studies from Chittagong Hill Tracts and Rohingya Camps in Bangladesh demonstrate the customization of NbS approaches to meet particular needs.

An in-depth analysis of diverse NbS approaches, including forest and floodplain restoration, construction of wetlands and green infrastructure, and several other solutions for urban flood prevention, is presented. The extent of their effectiveness and barriers to expanding NbS practices are discussed, encompassing a range of contexts from high-income urban areas to medium and low-income regions. The focus lies on the adaptability and potential impact of NbS in various contexts, providing valuable insights into their applicability. Barriers to large-scale implementation of NbS for urban flood prevention are elucidated, encompassing legislative, financial, and societal challenges that impede the integration of NbS in practice and policies, which hinder employing initiatives for a long-term national plan for NbS. Strategies to surmount these barriers are discussed, offering insights for stakeholders seeking to navigate the complexities of NbS integration. We conclude that although NbS can be considered a cost-effective and sustainable way to protect natural ecosystems and human properties, it needs more concentration to integrate into decision-making aspects from policy to practice perspectives.

How to cite: Kabir, M. H., Chowdhury, M. A., Hossen, M. N., Nawaz, S., Islam, S. L. U., and Hossain, M. L.: Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological extremes in South Asian countries: Current practices, gaps, and opportunities , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12100, 2024.

EGU24-14321 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Assessing habitat area changes from large-scale nature-based solutions 

Yared Abayneh Abebe, Samikshya Chhetri, Laddaporn Ruangpan, and Zoran Vojinovic

One of the benefits of nature-based solutions (NBS) is providing environmental benefits, which regulate and maintain ecosystem services and foster positive impacts on ecosystems. Environmental benefits of NBS include enhancing water quality, habitat changes, improving biodiversity and carbon sequestration and storage. In this research, we developed a method to assess changes in habitat areas using remote sensing data.

Since mapping habitats is a harder task, our method is based on mapping and detecting changes in land cover over a region and translating that to changes in habitat area. We employed the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes and EUNIS habitat classes, two commonly used classification systems for land cover and habitat types, respectively. To assess the change in habitat type and area before and after implementing NBS, the CLC Level III classes were transformed into EUNIS Level I habitat types. The CLC datasets of 2000 and 2018 were used as the land covers before and after implementing an NBS. We applied the method in Aarhus, Denmark, in two study areas called Egå Engsø and Lystrup. An artificial lake and wetland that covers an area of 115 hectares was implemented in 2006 in Egå, surrounded by 35 hectares of grazed meadows. The NBS in Lystrup includes basins, gullies and rainbeds. The purposes of the NBS are to reduce the flood risk from the river Egå and isolated storms, reduce the nitrogen supply to Aarhus Bay and improve the natural conditions in the area.

Results showed the conversion of a cultivated habitat to an inland surface water habitat. A bogs, mires and fens habitat had also emerged west of the wetland. In the southwest of the wetland, an agricultural habitat had changed to a complex habitat, and the south of the region was surrounded by an artificially dominated habitat. Finally, a complex habitat had changed to a constructed habitat in the southeast of the wetland. On the other hand, habitat changes had not altered significantly in Lystrup despite the implementations of NBS projects. It is also possible that NBS-induced modifications could not be recorded by the method as the area was a complex habitat characterized by a heterogeneous blend of different habitats. One limitation of this method could be that it is difficult to delineate changes within complex habitats. Additionally, the limitation arises from the translation of the land cover classes to habitat classification. However, the research offers a method to quantify one of the environmental benefits NBS generate to encourage decision-makers to implement and scale them up further.

How to cite: Abebe, Y. A., Chhetri, S., Ruangpan, L., and Vojinovic, Z.: Assessing habitat area changes from large-scale nature-based solutions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14321, 2024.

EGU24-16242 | Orals | HS1.1.3

Preliminary Assessment of Nature-Based Solutions Performance for Improving Irrigation Water Management Using the SWAT Model 

Vassilios Pisinaras, Konstantinos Babakos, Anna Chatzi, Dimitrios Malamataris, Vassiliki Kinigopoulou, Evangelos Hatzigiannakis, and Andreas Panagopoulos

Nature-based solutions (NBS) offer innovative and sustainable approaches to address irrigation water management challenges, since they can contribute significantly to enhancing water retention, reducing soil erosion, and optimizing water use efficiency. Within this framework, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied in the Pinios Hydrologic Observatory (PHO) in central Greece to quantify the impact of two NBSs on irrigation water use: a) effective soil water management through irrigation scheduling and b) increased soil water holding capacity through mulching and mowing. Encompassing an area of approximately 55 km2, PHO comprises forested and agricultural lands, predominantly cultivated with apples, followed by cherries and other orchards.

The SWAT model was applied in the PHO watershed for the period 2018-2022 and calibrated against soil water content with daily observed data obtained from soil moisture sensors installed both in forested and agricultural areas. A hybrid land use map, compiled by combining CORINE land cover and field-scale crop distribution, was utilized and the watershed was subdivided into 15 sub-watersheds and 696 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs). Monitoring of actual irrigation water consumption in 10 orchards revealed an average of 670 mm per cultivation period. Simulation of irrigation scheduling using the SWAT model indicated a potential reduction of more than 20% in irrigation water consumption in the apple orchards.

Continuous cultivation for several decades, irrational irrigation and the excessive use of herbicides practiced in PHO affect soil health, potentially leading to soil organic content (SOC) depletion, microbial activity disruption, and overall soil fertility compromise. Augmenting SOC enhances soil water holding capacity, fostering improved moisture retention and resilience against drought conditions. Analysis of over 500 soil samples collected from orchards implementing mulching/mowing practices compared to those predominantly using herbicides revealed an average SOC 1.2% higher for soil depths of 0-10 cm and 0.6% higher for depths of 10-30 cm. This increase in SOC is estimated to potentially raise soil available water content by 2%, contributing to 3% more irrigation water savings when coupled with effective soil water management through irrigation scheduling. While this water-saving potential may not be high, it can contribute significantly to mitigating water scarcity during drought periods, whilst should SOC increase is achieved by mulching/mowing and no use of herbicides, soil erosion is prevented, soil aeriation is improved, natural pollinator population is increased and agrochemicals’ runoff potential is reduced.

 

Acknowledgements

This research was funded by PRIMA program supported by the European Union, grant number 2041 (LENSES—Leaning and Action Alliances for Nexus Environments in an Uncertain Future) (Call 2020 Section 1 Nexus IA).

How to cite: Pisinaras, V., Babakos, K., Chatzi, A., Malamataris, D., Kinigopoulou, V., Hatzigiannakis, E., and Panagopoulos, A.: Preliminary Assessment of Nature-Based Solutions Performance for Improving Irrigation Water Management Using the SWAT Model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16242, 2024.

EGU24-17611 | Orals | HS1.1.3

When can rewetting of forested peatlands reduce extreme flows? 

Maria Elenius, Charlotta Pers, Sara Schützer, and Berit Arheimer

Historical drainage to improve agricultural and forestry practices has resulted in almost 1 million km of artificial channels in Sweden. This has reduced the storage of water in the landscape, and there are concerns related to the potential impacts on extreme flows, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient outputs. A large national restoration program aims to rewet 100 000 hectares forested peatland. However, there is limited evidence in what the impacts will be.

Here, we implemented national information on ditches to the hydrological model HYPE and investigated the conditions at which removal of ditches in forested peatland could mitigate extreme flows under various conditions of the climate and local hydrology. We found that the impact on discharge at the level of 10 km2 sub-catchments or larger was small, mostly because only small fractions of the catchments consist of drained forested peatlands, meaning there is considerable mixing with other runoff. However, smaller streams with runoff primarily from the restored peatlands could have substantial impacts of restoration, which may be important for local biodiversity.

For instance, a modelling sensitivity study showed the minimum runoff per year from forested peatlands increased by up to about 15 % after removing ditches and the maximum runoff was reduced by up to about 25 %. Importantly, an increase in the minimum runoff was only obtained if the minimum groundwater level was low enough in relation to the depth of ditches. Similarly, a reduction of the largest yearly runoff required that ditches were not too deep.

If conditions were not favorable to mitigate extreme runoff, the opposite situation often occurred instead, with worse extremes. Therefore, although the impact on extreme flows was negligible at the level of 10 km2 catchments or larger, it is crucial to choose appropriate sites for restoration with respect to runoff extremes if there are sensitive smaller streams with runoff deriving mostly from the peatlands. The work presented here shows how this can be performed with the use of indicators for groundwater levels and ditch drainage prior to rewetting. Specifically, the minimum runoff is expected to increase only if the minimum groundwater level prior to rewetting is below the depth of ditches, or close to that depth. Reductions in the maximum runoff require ditches are not too deep, and large reductions cannot be expected if the groundwater level was already temporarily above the soil surface prior to rewetting, for example due to lateral inflow.

How to cite: Elenius, M., Pers, C., Schützer, S., and Arheimer, B.: When can rewetting of forested peatlands reduce extreme flows?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17611, 2024.

EGU24-17780 | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

High Enthalpy Shallow Geothermal Energy: The Anomaly 

Alejandro Gil, Juan Carlos Santamarta, Carlos Baquedano, Jorge Martínez León, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Samanta Gasco Cavero, Jon Jimenez, Teresa Alonso Sánchez, Miguel Ángel Rey Ronco, José Ángel Sánchez-Navarro, Alicia Andreu Gallego, and Juan Miguel Tiscar Cervera

The SAGE4CAN project focuses on investigating the shallow geothermal potential of the Canary Islands. During the project execution in 2021, the Tajogaite volcanic eruption took place. This eruption resulted in the deposition of lava flows, totaling approximately 200 million cubic meters, with temperatures ranging between 400 and 900°C. Remarkably, these materials represent a shallow geothermal reservoir of exceptionally high enthalpy, deviating from conventional shallow geothermal reservoirs that typically maintain temperatures close to the annual atmospheric average.

This study presents the calculated results of harnessing geothermal energy from these deposits during the cooling period of the lava flows. The goal is to extract heat from the reservoir to generate both electricity and domestic hot water. The unique nature of this geothermal reservoir, characterized by its elevated temperatures, challenges the conventional understanding of shallow geothermal systems, offering an exceptional opportunity for sustainable energy utilization in the Canary Islands. Moreover, these findings provide a framework for redefining shallow geothermal potential, traditionally associated only with depth. While depth remains a crucial factor, our study highlights the exception that proves the rule, demonstrating that geothermal anomalies, such as the one observed here, contribute valuable insights to the broader understanding of shallow geothermal resources in the Canary Islands.

How to cite: Gil, A., Santamarta, J. C., Baquedano, C., Martínez León, J., Marazuela, M. Á., Gasco Cavero, S., Jimenez, J., Alonso Sánchez, T., Rey Ronco, M. Á., Sánchez-Navarro, J. Á., Andreu Gallego, A., and Tiscar Cervera, J. M.: High Enthalpy Shallow Geothermal Energy: The Anomaly, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17780, 2024.

Nature-based solutions have the capability to slow and store water during storm events, leading to the attenuation of flood peaks and the capturing of sediments and associated nutrients. These features can also provide important habitats for wildlife and pollinators. However, these features do take land that may be agriculturally productive and require maintenance, both factors mean that they have potentially significant ongoing costs. Therefore, it is important to ensure that they are effective and correctly located within the landscape. For all pressures, the location needs to be in a location where the problems are likely to originate. However, for flood waters, it is important to target locations that are likely to contribute to moving water out of the flood peak and into the receding limb of the hydrograph, rather than moving water from the rising limb into the peak. It is also important not to move water from the peak discharge of one community into the peak discharge of another. Therefore, careful analysis and planning are needed to ensure that the benefits from the nature-based solutions are maximised for all in the catchment.

 

The SCIMAP Toolkit provide an approach to assess the potential source area of flood waters, sediments, nutrients and FIOs and to ensure that the multiple benefits of the nature-based solution are realised. The toolkit uses a reduced complexity approach to map the generational of rapid runoff, the mobilisation of material and connectivity to the receiving waters. The SCIMAP-Flood module then considers the travel times to the impact points within the catchment, such as a community or key infrastructure.  This analysis is undertaken in a time-integrated way such that the potential benefits of a nature-based solution are optimised over a range of storms rather than fitting to the unique dynamics of a past event. The analysis is undertaken at landscape extent with sub-field detail, normally at a ground resolution of 1m with the catchment extent covering 1000s of km2.  This presentation shows the application of the SCIMAP approach to the spatial targeting of flood mitigation features and how these locations can co-deliver water quality benefits.

How to cite: Reaney, S.: Opportunity mapping for nature-based solutions for flood hazard reduction and water quality improvements with the SCIMAP toolkit, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18566, 2024.

EGU24-19873 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.3

Advancing Climate Resilience in the Canary Islands: Insights from the NATALIE Project on Nature-Based Solutions 

Jorge Martínez León, Miguel Ángel Marazuela Calvo, Carlos Baquedano, Jon Jimenez, Samanta Gasco Cervero, Jesica Rodríguez-Martín, Juan Carlos Santamarta, and Alejandro García-Gil

Advancing Climate Resilience in the Canary Islands: Insights from the NATALIE Project on Nature-Based Solutions

 

Jorge Martínez León1, Carlos Baquedano1, Miguel Ángel Marazuela1, Jon Jimenez2, Samanta Gasco Cervero3 Jesica Rodríguez-Martín4, Juan Carlos Santamarta5 and Alejandro García-Gil1,

 

1Geological and Mining Institute of Spain (IGME), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain (a.garcia@igme.es)

2Department of Earth Sciences, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain

3Madrid Health Department, Madrid City Council, Spain.

4 Department of Techniques and Projects in Engineering and Architecture, University of La Laguna (ULL), Tenerife, Spain.

5Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering. University of La Laguna, Tenerife (Canary Islands), Spain

 

This communication outlines the research framework of the NATALIE project, emphasizing the application of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) to address pressing climate change challenges across three distinct case studies in the Canary Islands—Gran Canaria, Tenerife, and Fuerteventura. The primary focus is on utilizing NBS as transformative measures to bolster resilience throughout the archipelago. Identified challenges encompass escalating extreme rainfall intensities leading to floods, uncontrolled runoff, water quality degradation from sewer overflows, desertification, and the management of groundwater bodies under future climate change scenarios.

 

The showcased activities include a series of NBS and Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) in Gran Canaria, with specific attention given to the Maspalomas lagoon. Tenerife's La Laguna case study highlights innovative NBS aimed at preventing flooding, presenting cost-effective alternatives for the construction of new drainage systems. Fuerteventura's initiative involves implementing natural treatment systems to combat nitrogen and pollutants, coupled with the utilization of regenerated water for restoring degraded wetlands. Furthermore, the research explores the monitoring of retention and infiltration capacities of traditional agricultural and rainwater storage systems.

 

The overarching goal of this research is to advocate for a comprehensive and diverse implementation of NBS, thereby contributing significantly to the resilience of the Canary Islands against the multifaceted impacts of climate change.

 

How to cite: Martínez León, J., Marazuela Calvo, M. Á., Baquedano, C., Jimenez, J., Gasco Cervero, S., Rodríguez-Martín, J., Carlos Santamarta, J., and García-Gil, A.: Advancing Climate Resilience in the Canary Islands: Insights from the NATALIE Project on Nature-Based Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19873, 2024.

EGU24-21269 | Orals | HS1.1.3

Integrated and conjunctive Reservoir and Aquifer Management to improve water security in the Elqui Basin, Chile 

Marta Faneca Sànchez, Corine ten Velden, Felipe García Grez, Bernhard Becker, and Hans van Duijne

Reservoir operation and groundwater management, and specifically Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) are often tackled separately despite the common objective to store water when it is available and provide water when needed. Few studies focus on the conjunctive management of reservoirs and aquifers to optimize IWRM in basins. This work takes into consideration the combined management of reservoir operation and MAR for the Elqui Basin in the Coquimbo region, Chile and proposes a conceptual model for integrated modelling. The conceptual model captures the complexity of integrated management in terms of contributing processes, time and spatial scales, risks, data and models and proposes approaches for an integrated tool. The Elqui Basin is located in the northern part of Chile. The last decade it has been exposed to prolonged and severe droughts. This has posed enormous pressure on the already scarce water resources, causing overexploitation of groundwater resulting in drastic lowering of the groundwater table. To analyse optimization of water allocation in the basin (including reservoir management and MAR), in addition to the conceptual model, a real time control model (RTC-tools) is developed by coupling a hydrological model (WFLOW) and a groundwater model (iMODFLOW) to RTC-tools. The RTC-tools exercise shows when and how much water would be available to infiltrate through MAR, whilst also considering the water demand of the many different users in the basin. Preliminary results show that while infrastructure should be adapted to conduct and infiltrate water in the region, reservoir operation and water allocation could be optimized to make MAR possible.

How to cite: Faneca Sànchez, M., ten Velden, C., García Grez, F., Becker, B., and van Duijne, H.: Integrated and conjunctive Reservoir and Aquifer Management to improve water security in the Elqui Basin, Chile, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21269, 2024.

EGU24-21660 | ECS | Posters virtual | HS1.1.3

Stormwater trees in urban runoff management: Water balance of the SenseCity Experimental Device  

Hayath Zime Yerima, Martin Seidl, Marie-Christine Gromaire, Abdelkader Bensaoud, and Emmanuel Berthier

Faced with high levels of soil sealing combined with the effects of climate change, stormwater trees offer an adaptive solution for stormwater management. A stormwater tree is a street tree that has been designed to manage runoff from the adjacent pavement, while enhancing its development and various ecosystem services. It's a natured based solution for sustainable source control of runoff that's developing more and more, but whose operation is not yet completely mastered. The aim of the present study is to analyze and better understand the hydrologic functioning of such a device for a better application in the city, based on an experimental prototype, implemented in SenseCity, in Paris conurbation. SenseCity is a mini-city made up of a roadway and walls simulating a Canyon Street, with ball maples (Acer platanoide Globosum) planted on either side, one side of which is fed by runoff from 88m2 of pavement - these are the stormwater trees. The three stormwater trees are planted in a 1.6m-diameter reservoir with two main substrate layers, the first consisting of 20cm of Rainclean, a depollution filter providing temporary storage before infiltration into the deeper 60cm layer of topsoil. The runoff infiltrates through these two layers before reaching the clayey natural underground, where it can be exfiltrated to the soil and excess water can be collected in an underdrain. Various sensors were installed to study this system. These include inflow (Krohne Optiflux electromagnetic flowmeter), soil water content (Campbell SoilVue TDR probe), sap flow (Edaphic Implexx sensor) which allows to assess the evapotranspiration flux from the trees, outflow from the underdrain (Précis Mécanique 2x1-liter auger) and meteorological parameters. Most parameters are measured at 15-minute time steps.
The results obtained over one year (April 2022-March 2023) show exfiltration and transpiration rates on the system to represent respectively 53% and 27% of the inflow. Annual drainage accounts for around 19%. Exfiltration and transpiration are the main means of reducing runoff volumes. These different processes are not evenly distributed over the months. Transpiration rates are highest in summer, helping to cool the urban microclimate, while drainage and exfiltration is highest in winter. In summer, for example, transpiration rates were 41% and drainage 11%, while in winter transpiration was reduced to 5% and drainage increased to 32%.

How to cite: Zime Yerima, H., Seidl, M., Gromaire, M.-C., Bensaoud, A., and Berthier, E.: Stormwater trees in urban runoff management: Water balance of the SenseCity Experimental Device , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21660, 2024.

EGU24-1444 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.7

Urban green space: global assessment of potential energy demand reduction in buildings 

Giacomo Falchetta and Enrica De Cian

Climate change impacts are increasingly felt, and a key hazard for human health is exposure to chronic and acute heat. Air conditioning is an effective indoor adaptation technology. However, it is widely regarded as a form of “maladaptation” due to its high energy intensity and the detrimental impact it has on urban outdoor temperatures and global greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, urban green space (UGS) is widely regarded as an effective green infrastructure with potential to mitigate the urban heat island effect. In this context, here we built on a global validated model based on street-level vegetation density, satellite imagery, and ancillary covariates to track UGS in a large sample of cities worldwide (Falchetta and Hammad, forthcoming) and derive a context-aware but generalized statistical linkage with buildings electricity consumption statistics. Based on the modelled relations, we derive future projection of the potential contribution of UGS expansions to energy demand reduction in buildings in different regions of the world. Our study advances the quantitative, globally relevant understanding of the intersection between climate change adaptation and mitigation, and the role of nature-based solutions to reduce the feedback impacts of adaptation while providing ecosystem service co-benefits.

How to cite: Falchetta, G. and De Cian, E.: Urban green space: global assessment of potential energy demand reduction in buildings, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1444, 2024.

EGU24-6337 | Posters on site | HS1.1.7 | Highlight

Simulating the impact of ground-based façade greenery design on indoor heat stress reduction 

Yannick Dahm, Karin Hoffmann, Oliver Schinke, and Thomas Nehls

Vertical greenery (VG) reduces the indoor heat hazard. To take advantage of their cooling effects, the underlying key design factors have to be understood. However, the influence of plant species, building type, and VG design on the thermal advantages has received limited attention in current literature.
Therefore, heat fluxes and temperature profiles for different ground based VG designs in the temperate climate of Berlin, Germany, were analysed using a process-based model. Indoor temperature profiles were integrated, assuming that air conditioning (AC) had been installed. Cooling effects have been simulated for six parameterised plant species of varying ages, across three different building types, and alternated air gap and crop thickness.
The results were compared, quantifying the cooling potential and the possible energy savings. They differ between plant species and building types. The diurnal variation of the indoor temperature resulted in maximum savings during the night. Fallopia baldschuanica showed the highest energy savings of approximately 23%. Thereby, it was multiple times more energy efficient than a Humulus lupulus.
This illustrates the significance of selecting the appropriate VG plant species. Considering factors such as growth rates and potential harm to buildings, VG can be strategically optimzed.

How to cite: Dahm, Y., Hoffmann, K., Schinke, O., and Nehls, T.: Simulating the impact of ground-based façade greenery design on indoor heat stress reduction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6337, 2024.

EGU24-7729 | Posters on site | HS1.1.7

Evaluating Green Roof Heat Mitigation Potential in a Changing Climate 

Giovan Battista Cavadini and Lauren Cook

As the impacts of climate change intensify, bringing an increase in the frequency and magnitude of heat waves, the interest around urban heat mitigation strategies is rapidly growing worldwide. Green roofs, defined as roofing systems that incorporate a vegetated layer, have been proved to reduce urban heat, thanks to their evaporative cooling and lower heat storage than conventional roofs. Thus, they are expected to become increasingly important in the future, given their potential to counteract the projected temperature increases associated with climate change.

Numerous studies emphasize the urban heat mitigation potential of green roofs, yet accurate quantifications of their temperature reductions under future climate are currently lacking. For instance, under climate change, higher temperatures and longer dry periods are expected in central Europe, conditions that can negatively affect green roofs. Recently, microclimate models are gaining traction in evaluating the efficacy of heat mitigation strategies, facilitating the quantification of urban heat reductions under various climate conditions. However, despite their increasing use in the literature, microclimate models are rarely combined with climate projections, due to the complexity of downscaling interdependent weather variables such as precipitation, air temperature and global horizontal radiation. Consequently, the heat reduction potential of green roofs under future climates is largely unexplored, particularly in comparison to their observed performance under current climate. Additionally, it is unknown whether specific roof parameters could contribute to further enhancing heat mitigation, such as plant characteristics, irrigation schemes, or substrate depth.

This study aims to investigate the heat mitigation potential under climate change on a green roof in Mendrisio, Switzerland (characterized by hot, dry summers) using an open source microclimate model developed by Meili et al. (2020), Urban Tethys-Chloris (UT&C). This model was selected because of the fully coupled energy and water balance, and the incorporation of plant-specific characteristics. Continuous year-long monitoring of the green roof enabled to collect surface temperature using infrared sensors. These measurements were used to calibrate and validate the microclimate model. To account for climate change, coupled, sub-hourly, future projections of precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed were used as input to the validated microclimate model. These projections were derived from a convection resolving climate model (COSMO forced by MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR at RCP 8.5, worst-case emissions scenario) run over the European domain at a 2.2-km, 6-minute resolution for a 10-year period that was bias corrected through quantile mapping. Lastly, variations in key parameters like substrate depth, vegetation type, and green roof irrigation schemes were explored to analyze their impact on urban heat mitigation under climate change.

Preliminary, manual calibration of the microclimate model resulted in a good predictive ability (r2 = 0.71), which will be further improved with automatic calibration. In a current climate, the green roof was able to reduce maximum surface temperatures in Summer by approximately 15°C, with respect to an adjacent concrete roof. Further expected results will evaluate potential temperatures reductions in a future climate and determine whether green roofs can counteract increasing temperatures by exploring a range of alternative designs.

How to cite: Cavadini, G. B. and Cook, L.: Evaluating Green Roof Heat Mitigation Potential in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7729, 2024.

EGU24-12889 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.7 | Highlight

Rainfall temporal variability and rainwater harvesting efficiency: an analysis over the Italian territory.  

Matteo Carollo and Ilaria Butera

Rainwater harvesting for indoor uses could be a useful practice for a sustainable management of urban water. The realization of a rainwater harvesting system strictly depends on the costs and the required space so that an accurate design is necessary, especially in the tank sizing step. The volume of the tank is an important element of the system which impacts not only important environmental issues such as the volumes of saved potable water and the reduction of rainwater volumes to the sewerage system, but also the costs and the practical realization of the rainwater harvesting system. Nevertheless, while the professional world seeks solutions that are easy to apply (e.g. simplified sizing methods), from a scientific point of view several aspects are still to be clarified, among these the role of the temporal variability of rainfall in the tank sizing step, that is the object of the present study.

Rainfall temporal variability is quantified by the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of rainfall datasets. This analysis is carried out through numerical simulations and it is focused on the national Italian territory. Daily rainfall data of 3436 rainfall gauge stations located on the national Italian territory are considered and buildings with different catchment area and number of persons are taken into account. Our computations show that the majority of rainfall gauges in Italy has a rainfall CV in the 2.5-3.5 range, with higher values in the South and in the main islands. The role of the temporal variability of rainfall is clear: the same building in locations with the same mean annual rainfall depth, can require different tank sizes according to the rainfall coefficient of variation of the specific location. As an example, to reach the same water saving, a medium rise building located in Ascoli Satriano (CV=2.42) should be equipped with a tank size of 2700 litres, while in other locations which have the same mean annual rainfall depth but different CV, like Casale Monferrato (CV=3.41) and Muravera (CV=4.83), the required capacity is 3400 litres and 6800 litres, respectively. This underline the importance of taking into account the rainfall temporal variability in the tank sizing.

The analysis made use of non dimensional parameters, i.e. the storage fraction and the demand fraction, so that the results, obtained from different buildings over the Italian territory, are comparable, allowing in this way to build a unique graph that contains all information: the water demand, the mean annual rainfall depth and the rainfall coefficient of variation, as well as the number of inhabitants and the roof area of the building.

How to cite: Carollo, M. and Butera, I.: Rainfall temporal variability and rainwater harvesting efficiency: an analysis over the Italian territory. , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12889, 2024.

EGU24-15912 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.7

Modelling reference evapotranspiration of green walls (ET0vert) 

Karin A. Hoffmann, Rabea Saad, Björn Kluge, and Thomas Nehls

Green walls, facade greenery, living walls – vertical building greening as part of urban green infrastructure are measures for climate sensitive urban design, for water management and microclimate regulation. Strategic integration of green walls into local water and energy cycles requires prediction of evapotranspiration, considering the individual design, plant species, and building characteristics. Available models address horizontal surfaces but disregard vertical particularities and urban conditions, e.g., reduced direct radiation, spatial patterns of radiation on the wall due to building orientation and shading obstacles, and very heterogeneous wind fields that are influenced by rough surfaces, canyons, and adjacent wind barriers. We present a verticalization model, ET0vert, for the reference crop evapotranspiration ET0 (FAO) based on a sensitivity analysis. It comprises the adaptation of solar radiation and wind to the individual situations in front of a wall or facade. The accuracies of the model predictions are evaluated for (i) remote climate station data (horizontal reference plane), (ii) interpolated climate data (both horizontal and vertical reference plane) and (iii) on-site measured climate data (vertical reference plane, both not height-adapted and height-adapted) as input. We validate the model with data for a one-month reference period (25/07/2014 – 29/08/2014) from a weighable lysimeter with Fallopia baldschuanica greening of a 12 m high wall in Berlin, Germany.

Regarding individual meteorological input parameters, we found high relevance of both vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and solar radiation (RS) for the study area. Using VPD and RS, respectively, a linear model could explain 90 % and 85 % of daily ET0 variances. No such relationship could be detected for wind speed, but for maximum and minimum wind speed.

Compared to remote horizontal input data, verticalization of input data (RS and wind) reduced overestimations of ET from about 90 % to 14 % and 27 % for the daily and hourly resolution, respectively. If onsite climate data is available, deviations are reduced to 9 % and 5 % for the daily and hourly resolution. Height-adaptation of input data resulted in further improvements of the prediction accuracies (1 % and 2 % deviation for hourly and daily resolution).

We conclude that simply using remote horizontal climate data for calculating ET of green walls is not advisable. Instead, any input data, onsite measured or remote climate station data, should be verticalized and preferably height-adapted. The verticalized model predicts the hourly and daily evapotranspiration of green walls necessary for e.g., irrigation planning, building energy simulations or local climate modeling.

For more information: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-22

How to cite: Hoffmann, K. A., Saad, R., Kluge, B., and Nehls, T.: Modelling reference evapotranspiration of green walls (ET0vert), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15912, 2024.

EGU24-16430 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.7

Assessing the microclimate conditions in urban green spaces and the effects of underlying driving factors in Switzerland 

Yuxin Yin, Gabriele Manoli, and Lauren Cook

Urbanization and climate change are leading to an increase in urban heat, posing a threat to human health and well-being. Urban green spaces (UGS), such as parks and gardens, have been recognized as an effective strategy for heat mitigation because they dissipate heat within their boundaries and in the surrounding areas. The magnitude of the cooling effect of UGS varies across locations and is affected by various factors, such as background climate, urban fabric, and vegetation properties. However, previous research studying the effect of UGS typically focused on specific case study areas and particular aspects of driving factors.

To do so, we integrate modeling, remote sensing datasets, and on-site measurements to assess the microclimate conditions of five different UGS (allotment gardens, public parks, private gardens, real estate yards, and ruderal sites.) in three Swiss cities with different biophysical conditions (Zurich, Geneva, and Lugano). Urban Tethys-Chloris (UT&C) model, a novel urban ecohydrological model with an explicit representation of urban canyon and vegetation properties, is applied to simulate the microclimate for each UGS and city. The models are validated using on-site measurements for air temperature, relative humidity, and surface temperature from July to October 2023. Preliminary results for Zurich show a good fit between simulation results and on-site measurements for both three variables, especially for air temperature and surface temperature with both R-squares larger than 0.8.

During the simulation period from June 21 to October 3, results will identify diurnal and daily patterns of microclimate conditions, including how different vegetation properties (i.e., height, canopy width, leaf area index, stomatal conductance) affect the microclimate. Subsequently, statistical regression will be employed to explore how the cooling effect of UGS is related to the distinct urban fabric and background conditions. Overall, the study will explain how various factors influence urban microclimate and provide insights on which factors will help to enhance the cooling effect in urban green space design.

How to cite: Yin, Y., Manoli, G., and Cook, L.: Assessing the microclimate conditions in urban green spaces and the effects of underlying driving factors in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16430, 2024.

EGU24-17003 | Posters on site | HS1.1.7

Sustainable Water Consumption Strategies in a Changing Climate 

Christina Tsai, Yu-Kai Chiu, Ching-Hao Fu, and Yao-Wen Hsu

Water consumption is a fundamental global need.  Water production consumes lots of energy and emits plenty of greenhouse gases.  Determining the carbon footprint of water can offer various benefits. Reducing water use and conserving water can lead to lower energy consumption, lower carbon emissions, lower monthly water and energy costs, and less demand for water.  As carbon neutrality gradually prevails, low carbon emissions have become the future global trend and goal.  Therefore, it is crucial to understand the relationship between water consumption and carbon emissions.

As most countries struggle to reduce their carbon emissions in response to global warming, investments in water conservation, efficiency, and reuse are among the most cost-effective energy and carbon reduction strategies.  Urban water infrastructures have been demonstrated to contribute to global CO2 emissions significantly, and buildings account for a large portion of most urban water consumption.  Notably, while there is abundant rainfall in Taiwan, there appears to be a frequent water shortage crisis.  Such a crisis is aggravated by climate change because of the more unpredictable seasonal changes.  Climate change is linked to excessive anthropogenic carbon emissions. 

This study focuses on five types of buildings with various missions and usage on the National Taiwan University campus.  These infrastructures are typically deemed as having significant water consumption at National Taiwan University: (1) Residential buildings, (2) Experimental buildings, (3) Experimental farms, (4) the Department of Animal Science and (5) Lecture halls.  The specific objectives of this project are to uncover the nexus between thermal comfort and water consumption and the relationship between water consumption and hydro-meteorological and anthropogenic factors.

 

How to cite: Tsai, C., Chiu, Y.-K., Fu, C.-H., and Hsu, Y.-W.: Sustainable Water Consumption Strategies in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17003, 2024.

EGU24-376 | ECS | Posters virtual | HS1.1.10

Examining Landscape Ecological Dynamics Amid Climate Change in the GBM Delta Region of the Indian Sundarbans 

Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Indrajit Pal, Mashfiqus Salehin, Ahmed Ishtiaque Amin Chowdhury, Nilay Pramanick, Jyoti Prakash Hati, Subhajit Ghosh, Ayush Baskota, Subha Chakraborty, and Manas Sanyal

The GBM delta stands as one of the world's most densely populated areas, where human activities have profoundly reshaped the landscape amid the challenges posed by recurring climatic disasters. The region, prone to tropical cyclones and flooding, faces a future where these natural hazards are expected to intensify, making the understanding of landscape ecological dynamics imperative for effective environmental management. This study scrutinizes the transformations in land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics within the GBM delta spanning three decades through integrating remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). Leveraging Landsat TM and OLI data, the research aims to discern anthropogenic alterations in land use patterns over the study period. Grey-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) analysis on Landsat datasets facilitates the identification of land use changes, employing the Support Vector Machine (SVM) as the classifying algorithm. In tandem, the study will document the influence of climatic disasters, assessing the impacts of tropical cyclones and floods in the delta. Rainfall and temperature anomalies will be calculated, while flooded areas will be delineated using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Climatic anomalies will be detected by analyzing TRMM, PERSIAN, and MODIS datasets. This research aims to unveil the intricate dynamics of the GBM delta's landscape over time by comprehensively understanding the interplay between anthropogenic activities and climatic events. The insights garnered, including the interests and livelihood operations of local communities, will be instrumental in informing government policies geared towards mitigating the escalating impacts of climatic disasters in the GBM delta.

Key Words: Sundarbans, LULC, livelihood, GBM Delta, Policies.

How to cite: Mukhopadhyay, A., Pal, I., Salehin, M., Chowdhury, A. I. A., Pramanick, N., Hati, J. P., Ghosh, S., Baskota, A., Chakraborty, S., and Sanyal, M.: Examining Landscape Ecological Dynamics Amid Climate Change in the GBM Delta Region of the Indian Sundarbans, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-376, 2024.

EGU24-512 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.10 | Highlight

Policy implications to encourage the adoption of Nature-based Solutions in Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). 

Sreejita Banerjee, Loc Huu Ho, and Indrajit Pal

Deltas are often densely populated and support much of the world’s fishes, forest products and agriculture. Protecting livelihoods and ecosystem services in deltas is therefore of global importance. The environmental degradation and the climate change are one of the multiple pressures experienced by deltas affecting the ecosystem services that pose risk in the livelihoods of the locals as well as the global population living in these areas. There is a need for new strategies for sustainable development to help deltas mitigate the effects of climate change as well as adapt to the changing conditions in a context of increasing uncertainty of hazards. Coastal areas of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) are highly vulnerable due to land use changes and extreme climate hazards. This study will explore the specific aspects of deltas from a complexity-based approach, and analyse Nature-based Solutions as alternatives towards sustainable development in these areas. This examines Nature-based solutions (NbS) as a complementary or alternative approach to managing hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. We investigated the potential NbS as a complementary and sustainable method for mitigating the impacts of coastal disaster risks, mainly cyclones and floods. Finally, we address this gap by conducting a systematic literature review to assess the existence of policy instruments such as the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (2009), Flood and Storm Prevention and Control (2000), Law on Dykes (2006), that adopt NbS and to evaluate the existence of specific examples of NbS.

How to cite: Banerjee, S., Ho, L. H., and Pal, I.: Policy implications to encourage the adoption of Nature-based Solutions in Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD)., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-512, 2024.

EGU24-684 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.10

A Comprehensive Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment Method for School Education System: A Case Study of Sundarban Delta, India 

Anushree Pal, Takuji W. Tsusaka, Mohana Sundaram, Mokbul Morshed Ahmad, and Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen

ABSTRACT

Natural hazards significantly impact school education, particularly in developing countries owing to their low coping capacity to hazards. The world’s 10 percent of tropical cyclones are experienced by Indian coastlines, together with the high probability of extreme rainfall events often leading to flood hazards. A comprehensive literature review highlighted the needs for thorough research on the differential impacts of climatic hazards on Sundarbans school education system and its societal linkages for adaptation strategies, hence promoting the resilient community.

This research aims to explore the impacts of multiple hazards and associated disruptions in school education, and attempts to identify determinants of resilience of school education to multiple hazards. The study aims to formulate an indicator library for vulnerability assessment of school education in the deltaic region. The research comprises of the conceptual background of vulnerability assessment, the indicators for education systems in the delta, the methodology for indicator library, and the indicator library table for school education systems in a comprehensive way. The study aims at developing a comprehensive library of school vulnerability indicators that will academically contribute as a reference for future researchers in the field of school vulnerability assessment.

How to cite: Pal, A., Tsusaka, T. W., Sundaram, M., Ahmad, M. M., and Nguyen, T. P. L.: A Comprehensive Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment Method for School Education System: A Case Study of Sundarban Delta, India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-684, 2024.

Climate change dominates the nexus between water resources management needed for farm farmland irrigation and food security insurance. The challenge increases when the population proliferates and the demand for food and water rises. This study will explore how climate change may affect food production and water use in the Nile Delta, Egypt, through higher temperatures and sea level rise. It also aims to investigate the best management practices (BMPs) that can be used to tackle these issues. In the Delta, where irrigated agriculture is practiced, sea level rise is a major potential impact of climate change since it significantly impacts the salinity of the water and soil. Furthermore, higher temperatures directly influence evapotranspiration, a crucial component of crop yields and water balance. To determine this interdisciplinary nexus between climate, water, and food, integrated hydro/hydrogeological and crop models will be created by calibrating and simulating the current baseline situation. For that purpose, a basic crop model will be merged with the coupled SWAT_MODFLOW hydro(geo)logical simulation software. Additionally, a range of forecasting scenarios will be run to represent the impact of multiple climate change scenarios. The outcomes of operated scenarios will be evaluated regarding socioeconomic and environmental aspects to support the decision-making process and define how far the BMPs can be implemented on ground in this study area.

How to cite: Gomaa, S., Fleskens, L., Carvalho Nunes, J., and Badr, M.: An Integrated Modelling Approach to Support Sustainable Water Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation for Irrigated Agriculture in the Nile Delta, Egypt., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-693, 2024.

Nutrient delivery and water yield are key ecosystem functions that impact food security. Climate and Land use Land cover (LULC) changes are the main driving factors that affect these water related ecosystem services. By recognizing the value of ecosystem services, the efforts to manage ecosystem services have increased. One such tool to help manage ecosystem services is the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, a new but powerful ecosystem service model. However, the InVEST model still requires testing in various geographic regions. This study assessed the performance of the InVEST water yield and nutrient delivery models in Siem Reap Province, Cambodia. The climate scenarios were projected using CMIP6 for two pathways namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Past, Present, and future scenarios were developed for two InVEST models including Annual water yield (AWY) and Nutrient delivery ratio (NDR) to evaluate the impacts of Climate change and LULC. In the past and present, water yield dropped by 52-69% from 2018 to 2022, with nitrogen and phosphorus exports rising by 627 and 186 tons, respectively. In future scenarios, from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, water yield in Near Future (NF) decreased by 6-8%, while in Mid Future (MF), it increased by 10-12%, and in Far Future (FF), it decreased by 1-2%. Future nutrient delivery showed minor changes, nitrogen exports dropped by 0.42 tons for NF and increased slightly by 3 tons for MF, also increasing by 2.4 tons for FF. Phosphorus exports decreased by 0.07 tons for NF and increased slightly by 0.8 tons for MF, with a 0.7-ton increase for FF in Siem Reap province. Climate change primarily impacts water yield, with LULC governing nutrient delivery. Expanding croplands and urban areas heighten pollutants and threaten food security, while diminishing forests and vegetation reduce water yield, intensifying challenges in securing a stable food supply in Siem reap province of Cambodia.

How to cite: Ahmed, F. and Loc, H. H.: Evaluation of Climate and Land Use Change impacts on ecosystem services that support Food Security in Siem Reap Province, Cambodia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3631, 2024.

EGU24-4213 | Orals | HS1.1.10 | Highlight

Preserving coastal agriculture: Nature-based solutions for the mitigation of soil salinization  

Paolo Tarolli, Edward Park, Jian Luo, and Roberta Masin

Soil salinization significantly threatens agriculture and food security, leading to profound soil degradation and desertification, negatively impacting ecosystems. The accumulation of excessive salts has negative effects on soil structure, fertility, plant growth, crop yield, and microorganisms. This phenomenon is attributed to natural factors, such as dry climates and high evaporation rates, and human-induced factors, including not optimal irrigation practices, inadequate drainage systems, and excessive fertilizer use. The increased frequency of weather extremes driven by climate change exacerbates this global issue, especially along coastal areas where millions of people live. Here, the sea-level rise, and recently also drought, are causing, especially in river deltas, a progressive land degradation, which negatively impacts the sustainable development of coastal agriculture. The lack of rainfall leads to scarce river discharge and consequently favours marine water inland flow intrusion. Anthropogenic activities (e.g., dams, mining) are exacerbating the phenomenon. Urgent mitigation strategies are therefore necessary. This study explores the potential of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) as sustainable and resilient response to soil salinization, offering benefits to agriculture through revitalizing ecosystem services. In detail, we addressed the challenges and limitations of implementing natural barriers, wetlands, buffer zones, conversion to aquaculture, straw incorporation, microbial-based solutions, organic fertilizers, and low impact water storage facilities. In detail, we should start re-introducing, where possible, wetlands through renaturalisation strategies, aiming to create a virtuous ecological equilibrium in agricultural landscapes. Indeed, wetlands can offer a natural barrier to saltwater intrusion. Soil remediation of degraded areas, especially for those interested in sand mining or oil refineries, is necessary to make soils more resilient and reestablish missed ecosystems. Agriculture must be sustainable and adopt conservation practices to keep and improve soil organic carbon content (SOC). Soils rich in SOC can retain more water and are more resilient; thus, they are more prepared for prolonged pressure given by water scarcity and soil salinization.

How to cite: Tarolli, P., Park, E., Luo, J., and Masin, R.: Preserving coastal agriculture: Nature-based solutions for the mitigation of soil salinization , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4213, 2024.

EGU24-5550 | Posters virtual | HS1.1.10

Salt intrusion monitoring in the Po River Delta branches (Italy)  

Mauro Del Longo, Elisa Comune, Alessandro Allodi, Giuseppe Ricciardi, Enrica Zenoni, Anna Gloria Angonese, Silvia Pigozzi, and Saverio Turolla

The Po River Delta is the outlet of the Po basin, the biggest catchment in Italy; it is composed of the  branches of Goro, Gnocca, Maistra, Tolle and Pila, spanning over a 700 km2 area, nowadays  inhabited by around 50.000.

Modeled by the human presence through channels, levees and other hydraulic infrastructures, this is a “young territory”, originated from the “Taglio di Porto Viro” done by the Republic of Venice, around 1600, in order to divert the Po river mouth southward and avoid silting of lagoon harbors.

Beyond its high natural, economic and cultural value, this area is exposed to multiple hazards related to floods and  storm surges, droughts, erosion, subsidence, water pollution and loss of biodiversity, exacerbated by soil consumption and climate change; one of the highest threats is the salinization of surface,  groundwater and soils, due to the increasing of duration and extension of salt intrusion from the Adriatic Sea (Enhance, 2016; Allodi, 2022).

Particularly during low flows, as in Summer 2022 (GDO, 2022), salt intrusion reduces fresh water availability  for drinking supply, agriculture and industry, as also for balancing habitat salinity and guaranteeing  ecological benefits.

For many years this fragile and dynamic context has been under systematic observation, related to salt intrusion as also to liquid discharges, solid transport, topography, hydrodynamics, tides and beach morphology (Visentini, 1940; Cati, 1981).

Within the current multi level-multi actor governance system, since 1995 the Emilia-Romagna Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy (Arpae) is involved in the integrated monitoring  of the Po River Delta, supporting  water protection and use, flood management and the general sustainability of human activities.

Through the Idro Meteo Climate  (SIMC) and the "Daphne" Oceanographic Structures, Arpae  collects river, delta and sea water level observations from telemetry networks and discharge measurements and salinity observations from field campaigns.

From these monitoring activities it is first possible to maintain stage-discharge equations, particularly at the Pontelagoscuro Station upstream the delta, and consequently to maintain the discharge repartition equations in the delta, depending not only on upstream discharge but also on  hydraulics of each branch and sea level conditions (Settin, 2012); secondly it is possible to support salt intrusion length assessment and estimation in each delta branch, mainly depending on river discharges, their repartition in each delta branch and sea levels conditions (Comune, Turolla, 2023).

Territorial knowledge and conservation, based on the integration of in situ monitoring and control, historical data,  other data sources (topography, groundwater, water quality), satellite products, models (including digital twins), artificial intelligence, uncertainties management and high computing capacities, may help better understand earth systems and better simulate future scenarios depending on climate, land use and  social changes.

Monitoring of the Po River Delta, is therefore indispensable for theoretical assessment, supporting from-short-to-long-term awareness, decision making and action by public institutions, private enterprises, associations and local community, in order to assuring sustainable and fair water uses and ecosystem services  in a vulnerable area exposed to increasing threats and at the same time rich in opportunities and beauty.

How to cite: Del Longo, M., Comune, E., Allodi, A., Ricciardi, G., Zenoni, E., Angonese, A. G., Pigozzi, S., and Turolla, S.: Salt intrusion monitoring in the Po River Delta branches (Italy) , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5550, 2024.

EGU24-6453 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.10 | Highlight

Seawater intrusion in coastal agricultural regions: a global review 

Aurora Ghiardelli, Eugenio Straffelini, Edward Park, Vincenzo D'Agostino, Roberta Masin, and Paolo Tarolli

Coastal agriculture is key in sustaining food production for the growing global population. Due to highly fertile soils and water availability, lowlands located in the proximity of river mouths often represent the backbone of coastal agricultural activities. However, over the past decades, anthropogenic-related processes are reducing yield increases. Climate change has rapidly become a major threat, with sea-level rise (SLR) and extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and record-breaking temperatures. In addition, deltaic areas are often densely populated, and intense human activities undermine the resilience of coastal agro-environments. In this context, seawater intrusion (SWI) is one of the most damaging processes affecting agriculture through soil salinization and the depletion of irrigation water resources. This leads to crop damage, huge yield losses and permanent harm to soil fertility. Despite the relevance of the topic worldwide, to this date, there is a lack of global synthesis on the impact of SWI on coastal agriculture and an insufficient consideration of the phenomenon in local surveys. To fill this research gap, we present a systematic review of the global distribution and impact of SWI in coastal agriculture of river deltas, focusing on the main hotspots and prevalent drivers, related to climate change, natural processes, and local human activities such as dam construction, dredging or groundwater overexploitation. Moreover, the global study helps to highlight the areas where data is insufficient and compares patterns of SWI across different regions. Additionally, the study assesses the global distribution of rural regions potentially impacted by SWI and the main crops characterizing the economies of river deltas. Finally, we delve into the future implications of demographic growth and SLR projections in deltaic regions, discussing the possible scenarios of coastal agriculture regarding water management, agronomic practices, and relative sustainability.

How to cite: Ghiardelli, A., Straffelini, E., Park, E., D'Agostino, V., Masin, R., and Tarolli, P.: Seawater intrusion in coastal agricultural regions: a global review, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6453, 2024.

Concern for climate change impacts to the Vietnamese Mekong Delta is rapidly increasing due to the compound risks of a changing climate, environmental change and sensitivity and social-economic transformation. The Delta, located in the downstream section of the Mekong River is considered globally as one of the three most vulnerable deltas to climate change. Variations in precipitation, temperature changes, sea-level rise, progressive saline instructions, riverbank erosion, flooding and extreme weather events all aggravate the risk to the existing socio-ecological system.

Using Ben Tre Province as an in-depth case study, this paper develops a social vulnerability index (SVI) to understand the water hazards-modified by climate change in terms of their association between vulnerability, existing infrastructures and socio-economic patterns. A mix-method of qualitative and quantitative approaches was framed to procure and analyse data. This consisted of group discussions, individual surveys and key informant panel interview. Spatially mapped results of cluster analysis showed a strong spatial trend of SVI increasing from upstream to the downstream areas The multivariate regression model found linear correlations between the SVI and the proximity to the dike system and waterways. Additionally, the Moran’s I autocorrelation indicated the statistically significant difference between the SVI spatially of various household clusters. These findings contribute y to the understanding of the array of biophysical and socio-ecological impacts, their variability and their interlinkages.

How to cite: Phan, T., Van, T., Downes, N., and Thai, T.: Understanding Social Vulnerability to Climate Change-Modified Water Hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Coastal Zone, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8332, 2024.

EGU24-9307 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.10

Combining Remote Sensing and On-site Observations to Explore Salinization Dynamics in the Po River Delta  

Aurora Ghiardelli, Eugenio Straffelini, Sara Cucchiaro, and Paolo Tarolli

Seawater intrusion (SWI) is an escalating concern in coastal regions globally, with alterations in weather patterns and sea-level rise emerging as pivotal factors contributing to the occurrence of SWI in both surface waters and groundwater. This phenomenon poses a significant risk to low-lying agricultural areas, leading to soil salinization with substantial adverse effects on soil quality and crop yields. In the Po River Delta, Italy's broadest agricultural region impacted by SWI, summer droughts play a pivotal role in driving SWI dynamics. Within this extensive lowland area, the deficiency in rainfall during the summer months reduces river flow, facilitating the inland movement of seawater. The escalating frequency of drought events and exceptionally high temperatures in recent summers, has highlighted the necessity for a thorough understanding of the impact of SWI on cropland, both on vegetation and soil, to detect any possible correlations between SWI, accumulation of salts and plant stress. The objective of this study is to combine multi-temporal remote sensing from satellite imagery, to monitor plant greening, with on-site observations of soil electrical conductivity (EC). Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps for the summer period 2023 were elaborated from satellite data, classifying cropland with a machine-learning algorithm to filter bare soil and surface water from green vegetation. In the same time period, two experimental sites located in the delta region were periodically sampled with a Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probe to monitor soil temperature, moisture and EC. Soil samples were also collected and analyzed to measure EC of the water extracts. Although summer 2023 was not characterized by extreme drought, the combined results offered a quick method for identifying salinization trends within the delta cropland area, pinpointing the most susceptible areas both on a regional scale and on a local scale.

How to cite: Ghiardelli, A., Straffelini, E., Cucchiaro, S., and Tarolli, P.: Combining Remote Sensing and On-site Observations to Explore Salinization Dynamics in the Po River Delta , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9307, 2024.

EGU24-9392 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.10 | Highlight

Identification of global hotspots for salinity vulnerability 

Md Feroz Islam, Judit Snethlage, Hester Biemans, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, and Ángel de Miguel García

Global food security is challenged by lack of fresh water availability and increasing salinity. Water and soil salinity have increased during the last few decades and are projected to increase in the future which will adversely effect the food security. Effect of climate change will exacerbate the situation. Previous researches have predominantly focused on the impact of either soil or water salinity on agriculture and food security. An assessment of combined impact of soil and water salinity at global scale is required. We have considered global datasets on soil and water salinity to locate areas with higher impact of salinity and combined indicators on climate, water availability, source of irrigation, cropping pattern, soil characteristics and level of salinity to identify regions with higher vulnerability to salinization. The impact of salinity on crop (wheat, rice and maize) yield was considered to produce a primary estimate of potential loss of food production. Combining soil and water salinity data indicate that currently the southeast and southwest coast of USA, southern part of Africa, southeast regions of Australia and coastal regions of Bangladesh are mostly impacted by salinity.  The MENA region, sub-saharan regions, large parts of Australia, southern Europe, southwestern coast of USA, eastern China, as well as the coast of Vietnam, GCC states, the eastern part of Indonesia, northern parts of India, coastal regions of Bangladesh and southeastern regions of Africa are identified as vulnerable regions for increasing salinity. The potential crop yield loss due to salinity is highest for Maize and lowest for Wheat.  Global cropping pattern shows that rice and maize are being cultivated more in salinity vulnerable areas than wheat, even though wheat is the most saline tolerant of the three. Identification of saline hotspot areas and regions vulnerable to increasing salinity will assist in development location specific of policies, regulation and adaptation strategies to counter the adverse impact of salinity in the future. More in depth analysis on Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mekong and Nile delta will be carried out for regional verification of salinity hotspot and vulnerable location identification.

How to cite: Islam, M. F., Snethlage, J., Biemans, H., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, C., and de Miguel García, Á.: Identification of global hotspots for salinity vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9392, 2024.

EGU24-14750 | ECS | Posters virtual | HS1.1.10

Exploring disaster impacts on livelihoods in the Ganga Brahmaputra Meghna Delta communities in India 

Ayush Baskota, Indrajit Pal, and Anirban Mukhopadhyay

The Ganga Brahmaputra Meghna (GBM) delta, situated in India and Bangladesh, represents a densely populated and precarious area. Over 200 million residents face significant environmental threats, such as tropical cyclones, land subsidence, riverine flooding, coastal inundation, rising sea levels and storm surges, particularly affecting socio-economically marginalized communities with vulnerable livelihoods.

This paper investigates disaster impacts on local livelihoods in the GBM delta communities in West Bengal, India through a comprehensive household survey of 1236 respondents across Sandeshkali, Sagar, Hingalgunj, and Gosaba community blocks. The survey revealed a diverse distribution of hazard severity across the region; residents in Sagar and Hingalgunj blocks were primarily impacted by cyclones whereas Gosaba and Sandeshkali blocks were also impacted by flooding, inundation and land erosion. Furthermore, disasters have tremendous impact on the local economy, with respondents reporting a 50% decrease in income from their primary livelihood in the aftermath of a disaster. These impacts were found to be more profound in Sagar and Gosaba blocks, where people were more reliant on agriculture and farming, as compared to Sandeshkali where families were involved in diverse livelihoods. A significant proportion of disaster damages were attributed to salt-water intrusion in agricultural land and aquacultural ponds, followed by damages to critical infrastructure such as roads and power network and health-related issues in the aftermath of cyclonic events. The findings of this study demonstrate the diverse socio-economic scenario in the GBM delta, highlighting the importance of block and community specific risk management and livelihood strengthening programs.

How to cite: Baskota, A., Pal, I., and Mukhopadhyay, A.: Exploring disaster impacts on livelihoods in the Ganga Brahmaputra Meghna Delta communities in India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14750, 2024.

EGU24-17963 | Orals | HS1.1.10

Bridging Perspectives: Lessons from the Water Custodian approach 

Willem Van Deursen, Syeda Khushnuma Wasim, and Myisha Ahmad

Water management decision-making typically adopts either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Presently, Bangladesh is exploring participatory planning, emphasizing consultations with local communities. This paper presents a framework for linking the top-down with the bottom-up approaches and discusses three case studies. The first one is about Tidal River Management in the South West Delta Bangladesh, and subsequently the framework is applied to Haor and Dhaka.

The livelihoods of communities in the South-West Delta face challenges due to environmental changes and socio-economic dynamics. Traditional approaches, inspired by Dutch polder development, have led to adverse effects such as increased salinity and drainage congestion. Local dissatisfaction with these solutions has manifested in events where farmers breach embankments to address these issues, while others turn to shrimp farming. A top-down approach to water management hampers effective communication and collaboration between experts and local communities.

The key challenge lies in managing the complex interactions among diverse stakeholders within the heterogeneous community. The Water Custodian framework aims to address this challenge by incorporating local community mapping into decision-making processes. The framework recognizes the diversity of stakeholders, including large landowners, subsistence farmers, and landless laborers, each with unique perspectives and incentives.

The primary objective of the framework is to enhance decision-making processes by incorporating humane elements, focusing on the inclusion of local communities and their vulnerability profiles. This involves developing a decision support process and tool to facilitate the inclusion of local knowledge and expertise in water management decision-making.

The approach is based on 'mental models' and 'life stories,' aiming to bridge geo-physical criteria with socio-economic and livelihood criteria. The Water Custodian framework uses fictional archetypal characters called Local Families, akin to personas in marketing and user interaction development, to represent different user groups. These personas help experts and decision-makers understand the diverse needs, experiences, behaviors, and goals of local communities. A serious board game is developed in which participants roleplay the various life-stories and have to prioritize the interventions based on their perspectives. The process is supported by a non-complex rapid impact assessment software, to provide rapid assessment of the scores obtained on the defined indicators.

The Water Custodian approach's adaptability to various contexts has been demonstrated by its application in the South-West Delta, the Haor region for integrated flood management, and for urban sustainability in Dhaka and Mumbai.  By using serious gaming for mapping and understanding the local context, the framework remains effective in addressing the unique challenges of each region.

Beyond its application in Bangladesh, the Water Custodian framework holds potential for various contexts worldwide. In natural resource management, it can be adapted to scenarios involving water resources, forests, or agricultural lands. The framework's inclusive approach can also find application in urban planning and development, disaster management, and educational initiatives.

In conclusion, the Water Custodian concept transcends geographic boundaries and application domains, serving as an anchor for inclusive and participatory approaches in decision-making.

How to cite: Van Deursen, W., Wasim, S. K., and Ahmad, M.: Bridging Perspectives: Lessons from the Water Custodian approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17963, 2024.

Riverbank erosion is one of the world’s major hazards in delta areas. The Mekong Delta of Asia is one among them which is facing many sediment-related issues, particularly riverbank erosion. Extreme flood events and sea level rise due to climate change increase the risk of riverbank and coastal erosion in the Mekong Delta. This study aims to assess riverbank stability using the BSTEM model, investigate the level of vulnerability of local communities to riverbank erosion and understand their adaptive strategies to cope with riverbank erosion problems. The study focuses on Kaoh Soutin (KS) and Ruessei Srok (RS) communes which are next to the Mekong River in the delta area of Cambodia. Linking with flow velocity and water level from the HEC-RAS  2D model, the BSTEM model was set up to examine riverbank stability at two locations in KS and two locations in RS. The study used soil samplings and the laboratory test to investigate critical shear stress and erodibility coefficient for the BSTEM model. The results indicate that river water level and groundwater level are crucial factors influencing the overall stability of the riverbank. Higher water levels result in increased confining pressure on the riverbank, leading to a higher factor of safety. Soil erosion also has significantly impacted the riverbank at the study location. The level of vulnerability in two communities was determined based on IPCC’s livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and coping strategies were determined based on field survey questionnaires and focus groups interviewed. It is found that KS is slightly more vulnerable to riverbank erosion than RS, as indicated by LVI values of 0.49 and 0.46 for KS and RS, respectively. The Chi-square test was carried out to identify vulnerability indicators that are statistically different between KS and RS. The current adaptive strategies based on interviews include reducing expenses, resettlement, diversifying income sources, and seeking support from various entities, including local authorities, NGOs, and government interventions during riverbank erosion. Large-scale monitoring and modeling systems are necessary for developing early warning systems and identifying hotspots. Riverbank protections both infrastructure-and nature-based solutions and migration plans are required to support livelihood adaptation.

How to cite: Piman, T., Tha, T., and Ruangrassamee, P.: Modeling riverbank stability and assessing vulnerability and adaptive strategies on riverbank erosion in the Mekong Delta, Cambodia , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20488, 2024.

EGU24-21205 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.10

Statistical associations of basin streamflow on sea surface salinity variability across major global deltas. 

Fahad Khan Khadim, Augusto Getirana, Rajat Bindlish, and Sujay Kumar

Sea surface salinity ( ) is a key parameter for the thermohaline circulation of global oceans, as well as the global hydrologic cycle. Near the deltas, inland streamflow through large catchments plays a crucial role in mediating salinity, which is vital for maintaining an agro-hydrological balance in the deltas. With recent remote sensing data sources providing both   and streamflow at global scales, we calculated the statistical associations of   with simulated basin streamflow ( ) at a monthly scale in 48 major deltas across the globe. The monthly   data was downloaded globally at   intervals from the SMAP RSS L3 products. The hourly streamflow data was extracted from HYMAP streamflow routing simulations (available at   spatial grids) within NASA’s LIS modeling framework. The streamflow data was spatiotemporally aggregated before performing the statistical analyses. We calculated the associations over different monthly-lags and plume distances and obtained the optimal correlations. The optimal correlation coefficients ( ) reveal strong anticorrelation phenomenon between   and   (  for seasonal data at 28 deltas, and   for de-seasoned data at 21 deltas). In addition to basin streamflow, we considered a number of sea surface climate forcings (precipitation, sea surface temperature, and wind speed) to perform similar statistical comparisons with  . The results revealed that   near the deltas are more influenced by basin streamflow in general. From a physical science perspective, we found consistent outcomes in the majority of deltas, with some irregularities in deltas with strong anthropogenic and management influences (e.g., deltas containing low forest cover and high reservoir areas). The anticorrelation phenomenon was more prominent in large deltas, specifically located near the tropical climates, which experience high streamflow and no ice-melting. We also found that the anticorrelations are more profound in river dominated deltas (e.g., deltas where the fluvial dominance ratio is greater than 1). The findings of this research will be useful for delta researchers aiming to devise global scale strategies amidst the rising threats of salinity intrusion.

How to cite: Khadim, F. K., Getirana, A., Bindlish, R., and Kumar, S.: Statistical associations of basin streamflow on sea surface salinity variability across major global deltas., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21205, 2024.

EGU24-482 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Predicting Global Change impacts on streamflow dynamics using distributed hydrological modeling in a data-scarce nested tropical catchment in West Africa. 

Albert Elikplim Agbenorhevi, Julian Klaus, Leonard Kofitse Amekudzi, Nelly Carine Kelome, Ernest Biney, and Ernestina Annan

Currently, the global water cycle is experiencing radical shifts and the associated global water crisis requires rapid action by stakeholders to mitigate adverse impacts on both human populations and ecosystems. This urgency in action is driven by the combined effect of Climate Change and Land-use land cover change (LULCC) and the associated challenges in securing clean water sources. The Global Change from climate change is making water scarcity worse in places that are water-stressed, causing more competition and even conflicts over water resources. Addressing the global water crisis is especially challenging in the data-scarce region of the Global South where the status of hydrological processes and water availability is poorly constrained. Here, progress in hydrological predictions through robust hydrological models remains on top of the research agenda. General for the Global South, and particularly for West Africa, is the limited hydrological process understanding of tropical catchments with accelerating land cover change. The focus of the research study seeks to address the following research questions:
•    How does climate change alter hydrological processes in tropical catchments and does this alter streamflow regimes across nested catchments? 
•    How does and what are the contribution of LULCC in spatial-temporal changes of streamflow in a nested catchment in addition to the alterations driven by climate change within a given West African region?
To address the questions above, we will rely on data from the Pra River Basin in West Africa. In the present study, we employed Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to assess a time-series spatio-temporal land-use/cover change and change detection of the Pra River Basin for the period 2007 to 2023. Focusing on five (5) LULCC classifications has become crucial to the region's unregulated large and small-scale mining activities. The use of the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Modified NDWI (MNDWI), was effective in extracting water surface areas for the change detection and pressure on the Pra River Basin and dealing with the overestimation phenomenon. We next integrate the processed LULCC into an eco-hydrological model that is validated against observed and reanalysed streamflow at different stations, soil moisture, and groundwater data. Future work will consist of estimating the impact analysis of Global Change on streamflow using an ecohydrological model that will be driven with the downscaled climate scenarios from CMIP6 and time-series land use change scenarios. This multifaceted approach is novel to the scientific understanding of water resource dynamics in the face of Global Change in tropical systems.

How to cite: Agbenorhevi, A. E., Klaus, J., Amekudzi, L. K., Kelome, N. C., Biney, E., and Annan, E.: Predicting Global Change impacts on streamflow dynamics using distributed hydrological modeling in a data-scarce nested tropical catchment in West Africa., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-482, 2024.

Food security is a major concern in the Lower Mekong River Basin, especially under the projected climate change conditions. The areas suitable for rice cultivation, the most important agricultural product in the basin, are expected to change drastically, with the most severe reduction in northeast Thailand. This study investigated the variations in the past ten years of three ecosystem services directly related to agricultural production in Nakhon Phanom, a mostly rural province in northeast Thailand. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) program, and historical and projected climate data up to 2050, we discovered significant variations in water yield, and nutrient and sediment delivery to streams that were strongly correlated with changes in local land use. Further variations can be expected in the future with significant differences observed between and rainy seasons. Sustainable adaptation strategies, such as nature-based solutions, are therefore highly recommended to safeguard and enhance food security within this region.

How to cite: Nguyen, H. M. and Ho, H. L.: Assessment and projection of food security related ecosystem services in Nakhon Phanom, northeastern Thailand, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-612, 2024.

EGU24-1478 | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Assessment of drought prone areas in Slovakia according to the changes in the long-term mean discharges 

Katarina Jeneiova, Lotta Blaskovicova, Katarina Kotrikova, Zuzana Danacova, and Jana Poorova

The assessment of changes in the hydrological regime under the climate change uncertainty is especially important for the decision making processes as the hydrological design values, derived for a reference period, are directly used for decision making in many areas of water management, including drought management. Recent local studies confirmed that there are changes in hydrological regime of the last decades in comparison to the currently used reference period 1961-2000 in Slovakia. Therefore, the selection of the reference period for the design values is under revision. In the first step, long-term mean discharge observations from the state hydrological network with near natural regime were analysed. The newly proposed period 1991-2020 was compared to the reference period 1961-2000 and the deviations of long-term discharges in selected water-gauging stations were assessed. The newly proposed reference period was selected for the analysis, as it is recommended by the World Meteorological Organisation for the purpose of climate change monitoring and better comparability of climatological and hydrological characteristics. As the second step, maps of the drought prone areas were drawn according to the spatial distribution of the results. We hope that this analysis will serve as supporting material to help the decision makers in policy making process and toward more effective drought management in Slovakia.

How to cite: Jeneiova, K., Blaskovicova, L., Kotrikova, K., Danacova, Z., and Poorova, J.: Assessment of drought prone areas in Slovakia according to the changes in the long-term mean discharges, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1478, 2024.

EGU24-1628 | Orals | HS1.1.11

The potential impact of climate tipping points on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe 

Peter van Thienen, Herbert ter Maat, and Sija Stofberg

In recent decades, substantial advancements have been achieved in state-of-the-art climate models, signifying commendable progress by the scientific community. These models have proven invaluable in comprehending and forecasting anthropogenic climate change. Nevertheless, their efficacy is limited when examining the intricate dynamics of tipping elements and their potential ramifications for overall climate stability. This limitation results in the absence of these tipping elements in widely adopted climate projections utilized by the drinking water industry to assess system resilience.

Despite the prevailing insufficiencies, there is a growing body of evidence indicating the existence and, conceivably, the imminent activation of certain tipping elements. The drinking water sector, characterized by its inherently slow-paced nature due to infrastructure designed for extended operational lifespans, faces a critical challenge. The rapid timescales associated with potential changes resulting from tipping element activations surpass the typical lifespan of drinking water infrastructure. Consequently, the water sector cannot afford to wait for scientific consensus to emerge.

This contribution asserts that climate tipping points pose a latent, underexplored, and potentially underestimated risk for the water sector. To address this concern, we introduce a straightforward model that explores potential magnitudes and timescales of abrupt climate changes linked to tipping element activations. Our investigation focuses on Europe, aiming to scrutinize the effects and consequences on drinking water supply. Specifically, we incorporate an assessment of the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deemed most pertinent for Europe based on projected effects, associated timescales, and implications for the water sector.

Our findings underscore the necessity of integrating tipping scenarios into the decision-making processes within the drinking water sector, given the profound uncertainty and far-reaching consequences associated with these events.

How to cite: van Thienen, P., ter Maat, H., and Stofberg, S.: The potential impact of climate tipping points on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1628, 2024.

EGU24-2135 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Assessment of Climate Change on Water Availability in Central Himalayas, Nepal 

Bipin Dahal, Insaf Aryal, Naba Raj Dhakal, and Suresh Marahatta

The Kaligandaki River Basin (KRB) in Nepal, as one of the Himalayan River Basins, is experiencing severe impacts of climate change on its water resources. In this study, future climate projections from downscaled CMIP6 GCM models were used to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of the KRB by developing a hydrological model soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Multi-site validation approaches were used to address the high spatial heterogeneity of the basin. The performance of the model was excellent, achieving a consistently very good ranking throughout the study, as evidenced by calibration and validation results. Under the intermediate emission pathways SSP245 scenario, the average annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.5°C, with a maximum rise of 2.8°C during the pre-monsoon season in the far future. In the high emission pathways SSP585 scenario, the average annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.2°C, with a maximum rise of 4.3°C expected during the winter season in the far future. Precipitation is anticipated to increase across all future time windows, with higher magnitudes under the SSP585 scenario. The combined effect of temperature and precipitation increases is expected to increase the discharge of the river. Specifically, discharge is projected to increase by 6% (under SSP245) and 12% (under SSP585) for 2025-49, 14% (under SSP245) and 24% (under SSP585) for the 2050-74, and 23% (under SSP245) and 40% (under SSP585) for the 2075-99 timeframes. The projected changes indicate an overall increase in average annual discharge, with greater increases expected under the high-emission scenario. These findings highlight the significant influence of climate change on the water balance components and hydrological regime of the KRB.

 
Keywords: SWAT, Climate Change, Water Availability, Kaligandaki

How to cite: Dahal, B., Aryal, I., Dhakal, N. R., and Marahatta, S.: Assessment of Climate Change on Water Availability in Central Himalayas, Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2135, 2024.

EGU24-2241 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Global vulnerable basins suffering social-ecological impacts of water scarcity 

Fubo Zhao and Yiping Wu

The UN water conference, convened in March 2023, calls for governing water and addressing climate change in tandem to co-achieve related sustainable development goals. However, the actual (water scarcity under current climate conditions) and potential (potential water scarcity under climate change) impacts of water scarcity on social-ecological impacts are rarely assessed. Herein, we developed a framework that integrates water scarcity and climate sensitivity to assess the socio-ecological vulnerability of global basins. We found that basins that already experience water scarcity are exhibit a disproportionate magnitude of climate sensitivity, which exacerbated the challenges associated with water resources management. We identified the vulnerable basins by integrating socio-ecological vulnerability and found that the most vulnerable basins are mainly located in developing countries. Therefore, the urgent international cooperation for reducing vulnerabilities of water scarcity is required. Measures involved in current Integrated Water Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation may not be enough to alleviate the water crisis and to adapt to climate change in these vulnerable basins. We thus urge policy makers in regions suffering vulnerable water scarcity to integrate both approaches to manage water and climate in tandem and synergistically achieve related sustainable goals.

How to cite: Zhao, F. and Wu, Y.: Global vulnerable basins suffering social-ecological impacts of water scarcity, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2241, 2024.

EGU24-2873 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Potential assessment of flood resource utilization based on the inflow flood identification model 

Jing Huang, Chao Tan, Xiaohong Chen, and Jiqing Li

The potential assessment of flood resource utilization is a prerequisite for the rational allocation of water resources and storage capacity in a watershed. In response to the increasingly uneven distribution of water resources in the context of climate change, an inflow flood identification model was established based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, improved peak-over threshold method, and time-varying parameters with Poisson distribution model. A potential assessment method of flood resources utilization in reservoir groups was proposed based on constraints such as the comprehensive regulation and storage capacity of the watershed and water demand. The four cascaded reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River (Jinxia Four Reservoirs), namely Wudongde, Baihetan, Xiangjiaba, and Xiluodu, was used as a case study. The results show that: 1998 and 2002 are the consistency change points of the runoff seies from June to November at Xiangjiaba Hydrological Station. The main type of inflow flood is short-fat, and the 3-day flood volume is a key indicator of balanced comprehensive utilization benefits except for the flood peak. Jinxia Four Reservoirs are constrained by storage capacity, when encountering floods with a design standard of once-in-a-century or below, the potential utilization of flood resources is 37.27×108m3. It is recommended to continuously optimize the storage capacity by raising the water level to 952.26m, 806.77m, 576.31m, and 373.99m in sequence of Jinxia Four Reservoirs. This work aims to provide reference for the optimal allocation of water resources and storage capacity in the watershed.

How to cite: Huang, J., Tan, C., Chen, X., and Li, J.: Potential assessment of flood resource utilization based on the inflow flood identification model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2873, 2024.

EGU24-3204 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.11

Sustainable water management in Southern Ecuador: water availability under climate change and adaptation strategies. 

Ana Ochoa-Sánchez, Patricio Crespo, Patrick Willems, Rolando Célleri, Pablo Guzmán, María Alvarado-Carrión, Johanna Ochoa, Jorge García, Santiago Núñez, Verónica Rodas, Rigoberto Guerrero, María Augusta Marín, and Gabriela Sánchez

Anthropogenic climate change together with non-climate drivers (e.g land use change) have affected natural and human systems in the Andean Mountain region. There is more evidence of changes in water systems, with decreasing water availability and increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events (i.e. flooding and droughts). This region is especially vulnerable to climate change and faces challenges towards adaptation due to limited resources and policies. Therefore, we present an integrated water management (IWM) approach to secure water availability in a middle-size city in Southern Ecuador - Cuenca. The Andean city of Cuenca (~ 600 000 inhabitants, located at 2600 m a.s.l.) depends highly on precipitation and surface water from the highlands to ensure drinking water. Due to its complex orography, climate change projections are not yet available at an adequate resolution for local decision making and limited actions and plans towards adaptation are undertaken. Our IWM approach, then, involves two phases:

(1) Quantifying water availability projections. Statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques are used to quantify climate change projections at 1 km resolution for the study area, together with indicators useful for decision-makers. Discharge projections are quantified by using conceptual and distributed hydrological models. In parallel, water consumption is monitored and projected. Finally, we find water availability projections towards 2100.

(2) Constructing adaptation strategies. On the provision side, water management improvements are co-constructed with the local drinking water company (ETAPA EP), such as: evaluating old infrastructure (e.g. leaks control), proposing new green-blue and gray infrastructure. On the demand side, strategies to reduce water consumption are co-constructed and implemented within a pilot project that involves citizens from three neighbourhoods in Cuenca.

Our study involves a variety of actors and sectors (i.e. Ecuadorian and Belgian Universities, decision- and policy makers and citizens), enhancing capacity building of local governments and transferring knowledge among Universities and institutions, to plan and implement adaptation strategies through bottom-up approaches. We expect that our approach can be used in other middle-size cities, with similar challenges or complex orography conditions.

How to cite: Ochoa-Sánchez, A., Crespo, P., Willems, P., Célleri, R., Guzmán, P., Alvarado-Carrión, M., Ochoa, J., García, J., Núñez, S., Rodas, V., Guerrero, R., Marín, M. A., and Sánchez, G.: Sustainable water management in Southern Ecuador: water availability under climate change and adaptation strategies., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3204, 2024.

EGU24-4454 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Evaluating climate change impacts on the hydrology of Kamp catchment, Austria, under different shared social pathways (SSPs) 

Zryab Babker, Tim G. Reichenau, Morteza Zagar, and Karl Schneider

Climate change can severely affect water fluxes at the land surface and thereby water availability as well as floods and droughts leading to increased risks for man-environment systems. Understanding the impacts of climate change on future water resources at a catchment scale is essential for strategic planning and efficient integrated water resources management. In the frame of the DISTENDER project (EU Horizon-ID 101056836), climate change impacts upon several catchments in Europe are analyzed. A key goal of DISTENDER is to develop robust strategies for climate change adaptation. For the simulation of climate change impacts on water resources, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) was selected for its accessibility, robustness, and transferability. Here we address the issue of effects of different climate models vs. shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) by driving SWAT with results of three models (CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR) run of the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four SSPs (SSPs 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, 5-8.5), respectively. The Kamp River in Lower Austria was selected as an example catchment because it is the longest river in the “Waldviertel” region, which has significant ecological, societal, and economic importance. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated at different locations in the catchment. Future climate change projections for the period 2021 to 2050 were obtained from CMIP6 and were statistically downscaled. Annual 3-day high runoff was used as a proxy for the extreme high runoff characteristics. Trends and variations of the water balance components were compared.

All climate models show an increase in average annual precipitation ranging from 5 % (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) to 17 % (CanESM5). In all climate models and SSPs, the 3-day high runoff at Stiefern gauge (near the catchment outlet) for 10, 50, and 100-year return periods is projected to increase. CanESM5 and EC-EARTH3 show the highest (54 %) and the lowest (13 %) increase in the 3-day high runoff for 10, and 100-year return periods respectively, variations across the SSPs range from 12 % (SSP1-2.6) to 77 % (SSP 5-8.5) for 100-year return periods. Changes in the average annual evapotranspiration across the different models range from 12 % to 18 %, and variations across the SSPs range from 14 % to 16 %. For all models, the average annual soil moisture in the catchment decreases significantly (5 % to 18 %), across SSPs the decrease ranges from 9 % to 13 %.

Our results indicate that the effects of choosing different models to reflect the changes in the runoff and average annual water balance components exceed the effects of different SSPs. Thus, decision-makers and planners should select a model according to their planning goal (i.e. use a model with extreme change to reflect the maximum potential risk). This research is intended to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risks and vulnerabilities and to contribute to effective management of water resources in the catchment within the framework of the DISTENDER project.

 

Keywords: Climate change, CIMP6 Climate Model, SWAT+ model, Kamp catchment, Austria

How to cite: Babker, Z., G. Reichenau, T., Zagar, M., and Schneider, K.: Evaluating climate change impacts on the hydrology of Kamp catchment, Austria, under different shared social pathways (SSPs), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4454, 2024.

EGU24-5789 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Understanding the uncertainty in the climate and water resource availability interplay: a distributed analysis of the Italian territory 

Alessandro Amaranto, Leonardo Mancusi, and Giovanni Braca

As the tangible impacts of climate change continue to unfold, the imperative to assess and prepare for its repercussions on water resources becomes increasingly evident. This study addresses the urgent necessity to foresee future scenarios of surface water availability in Italy, recognizing the crucial role of water in sustaining ecosystems, agriculture, and human life. To unravel the intricate interplay between climate change and water availability, our methodology integrates the three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with six regional circulation models. This combination projects future trajectories of temperature and precipitation. Utilizing the time-varying quantile mapping downscaling technique, we refine these trajectories for enhanced spatial and temporal resolution (1 km). These downscaled data feed into the water balance model BIGBANG, developed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), facilitating the generation of the spatiotemporal distributions of surface water availability across Italy. A probabilistic analysis offers a nuanced understanding of potential future water scenarios. Our findings highlight the profound influence of emission scenarios on water availability's future trajectory. Under maximum adaptation conditions (RCP 2.6), a relatively stable water availability pattern is projected through the century. Conversely, the business-as-usual scenario predicts a significant decrease of up to 50% in surface water availability, particularly in historically drought-prone southern regions of the country. These results underscore the critical importance of proactive adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on Italy's water resources.

How to cite: Amaranto, A., Mancusi, L., and Braca, G.: Understanding the uncertainty in the climate and water resource availability interplay: a distributed analysis of the Italian territory, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5789, 2024.

The Murray-Darling Basin in south-eastern Australia is one of the world’s largest rivers, draining an area of just over 1 million square kilometres. The basin drains about one-seventh of the Australian land mass and is the 16th longest river in the world. However, being located on the driest continent on Earth, its discharge is relatively small, averaging just 767 m3/s, far smaller than the discharge from any other similarly sized river worldwide.

Despite the relative lack of water, the Murray-Darling Basin is one of the most significant agricultural areas in Australia. In 2008, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority was formed with a mandate to manage the basin in an integrated and sustainable manner. Water reform in the basin has been a world-first in terms of the scale of intervention, but it has led to numerous conflicts in terms of access to water. The ability to manage the basin adequately relies on appropriate research being carried out in order to determine how much water is currently available, where it is currently being used, and how water availability and use are likely to change into the future.

Climate change projections for the Murray-Darling Basin indicate a future that is likely to be hotter, with more frequent and intense droughts, accompanied by a reduction in cool season rainfall, particularly in the south of the Basin. As this is where the majority of runoff is generated, this is likely to lead to reductions in water availability, with a median reduction of around 20%.

The Murray-Darling Basin Plan was brought into force in 2012 and is due for review in 2026. CSIRO is carrying out hydroclimate research to assist policy makers to better understand the likely changes in water availability, and consequent adaptation options available to them. This presentation will summarise the likely climate change impacts on water availability and assess how best to deal with the uncertainties associated with these projections.

How to cite: Post, D.: Research informing policy to adapt to climate change: a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7034, 2024.

EGU24-7932 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Vegetation restoration potential in the drylands of China under water constraint 

Huiqing Lin and Yan Li

As an essential pathway for nature-based solutions, vegetation restoration can effectively absorb carbon sequestration and mitigate global warming. However, the excessive water consumption by vegetation expansion may create potential water conflicts between natural ecosystems and human systems, and even exacerbate local water shortages, especially in water-limited dryland regions. By evaluating water availability using multiple datasets, this study explored the vegetation restoration potential and the allowable vegetation conversion in China’s drylands under the constraint of water availability. We found that the additional water resources available for vegetation restoration in China’s drylands were 12 ± 114 mm (median ± SD) from 2003 to 2018 but it decreased over the period (-1.18mm/year). 43.3% of the dryland area had water deficits, after considering current vegetation and human water consumption. Under current water constraints, additional Gross primary productivity (GPP) that could be restored ranged from 8% to 12% depending on vegetation types (10.5% for forests, 11.6% for grasslands, 7.8% for irrigated crops, and 8.9% for rain-fed crops). In water surplus areas, primarily in the south and east of China’s drylands, most vegetation conversions toward higher-water-consumption types were allowed to occur. In water deficit areas, the west of drylands, even converting all the existing vegetation to less water-intensive types would not compensate for the water deficit in most regions, suggesting local vegetation may have exceeded the water-carrying capacity. Our research highlights the importance of the potential water constraint of vegetation restoration in drylands and provide a guidance for decision-making vegetation restoration while ensuring water sustainability. Next, we will explore the potential for vegetation restoration under different climate change scenarios (e.g., ssp126, ssp370, and ssp585).

 

How to cite: Lin, H. and Li, Y.: Vegetation restoration potential in the drylands of China under water constraint, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7932, 2024.

EGU24-8932 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Model Calibration and discharge simulations during extreme drought events for the Rhine River Basin using WRF-Hydro. 

MSc. Andrea Campoverde, PD. Dr.Uwe Ehret, Dr.Patrick Ludwig, and Prof. Dr. Joaquim Pinto

Recent drought events, leading to low water levels, have significantly affected navigation through the Rhine River and the transportation of goods. It has become imperative to analyze the conditions in which these events occurs to establish actions to prevent monetary losses. The main focus of this study is to test how well the hydrological model WRF-Hydro can capture extremely low water levels in the Rhine River basin. Using the meteorological reanalysis dataset ERA5 as forcing data for the model, we simulate the streamflow from January 2016 to December 2018, which includes the recent drought event in the Summer of 2018. Within the model, the calibration of various parameters allows the evaluation of the streamflow from WRF-Hydro to be contrasted with the daily observed values. The parameters influencing the amount of water routed across the basin are generally constant throughout the domain. Land use cover and terrain slope were used to create spatially distributed parameter values, avoiding the calibration process of testing a range of values and, therefore, reducing computational time. These promising results enables us to analyze recent and future drought events under different climate conditions.

How to cite: Campoverde, MSc. A., Ehret, PD. Dr. U., Ludwig, Dr. P., and Pinto, P. Dr. J.: Model Calibration and discharge simulations during extreme drought events for the Rhine River Basin using WRF-Hydro., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8932, 2024.

EGU24-9237 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

A Graphical Representation of Climate Change Impacts with Associated Uncertainties 

Jose George and Athira Pavizham

Recent decades have seen increased occurrence of extreme climatic events, which have had devastating consequences, both in terms of loss of life and property. Proper understanding of the possible variations in climatic extremes is important in developing mitigation and adaptation plans. Climate change impact prediction employs a series of numerical models, each with their own limitations that contribute towards the overall uncertainty. Climate change impact prediction results are often not intuitive to a decision maker and the added complexities from uncertainties can complicate the policy making exercise. A clear and concise representation of the possible risks of climate change and the associated uncertainties needs to be developed to bridge the gap between the climate scientist and the policy maker. Here, a framework for graphical representation of regional climate risks in terms of hazards and vulnerabilities is developed. The uncertainties are quantified in terms of level of confidence as the result of an ensemble exercise. To help regional stakeholders relate to the prediction results, analysis of extremes is performed with respect to historical hazards in the region. Risk factors for climate extremes that happened in the past in the region are studied and the future risk for an event of same return period is compared to the historical risk. The methodology is validated in the Bharathapuzha catchment in Kerala, India, a catchment which is identified to be climate change hotspot. In terms of flood events, the risk of low intensity flood events is seen to be increasing in the catchment with high confidence, while high intensity flood events are seen to be predicted at low levels of confidence. The catchment is seen to be drying up with high intensity drought events being predicted at high confidence.  

How to cite: George, J. and Pavizham, A.: A Graphical Representation of Climate Change Impacts with Associated Uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9237, 2024.

Louisiana is a state in the United States of America that is experiencing the multiple challenges of climate change, extreme weather events (such as hurricanes), and human intervention impacts for flood protection. The marshland regions of lower Louisiana have been heavily impacted by human influence, since the state was originally formed and maintained by deposition of sediment carried from the Mississippi River. Not only has impact of human intervention impacted the sediment transport processes, but there has also been significant human development of levee systems and other flood protection structures in Louisiana’s coastal environment. Specifically after Hurricane Katrina, additional levee systems, environmental control structures, and floodgates were built in this marshland region. A few different design criteria are important to analyze for these systems, some of the more notable design criteria are flood protection, navigational safety for ships passing through floodgates, marshland protection, water quality, and system biology. In addition to monitoring human impacts, the US Army also seeks to understand how the system behaves under long-term climate change impacts.

While flood protection is a primary motivator for building these systems, it is important to ensure that structures built do not have adverse effects on the local wildlife or commercial/recreational opportunities for the locals in these areas. Adaptive Hydraulics (AdH) is a finite element based 2D shallow water equation solver that can be used to numerically evaluate these impacts. Another focus of this study is to analyze the indirect impacts of structures built since 2004. To ensure that everything built since then has not had major impacts on the local wildlife or commercial/recreation opportunities, AdH and PTM can also be used to gain insight into that impact. The numerical modelling portion is the author’s direct contribution to the project, though the overall project of developing Lower Louisiana, and its impact of that and climate change on the natural environment and local people will be discussed.

How to cite: Barreca, D.: Environmental Impacts of Developing Flood Protection Systems throughout a Marshland Ecosystem in Lower Louisiana: a Numerical Case Study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10709, 2024.

Climate change can pose a significant threat to water fluxes on terrestrial surfaces, impacting water availability, and increasing the risk for human-environment systems to floods and droughts. Understanding the repercussions of climate change on future water resources is imperative for effective integrated water resources management. As part of the DISTENDER project (EU Horizon-ID 101056836), we scrutinize the effects of climate change on diverse watersheds in Europe to develop strategies for climate change adaptation.
To simulate the impacts of climate change on water resources, we chose MIKE SHE for its spatially distributed and physically based modeling concept. Here we present the results of different climate models vs. SSPs on water balance components and runoff for the Ave River Basin in Northern Portugal.  MIKE SHE was calibrated and validated utilizing measured gauge runoff data from 1980 to 1986 and 1986 to 1990, respectively. For the various gauges, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.59 and 0.81 were achieved.
Statistically downscaled climate change projections for the period (2021-2050) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used as input to MIKE SHE. We used three different climate models (CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR) and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, 5-8.5) each. Hydrological variables were evaluated for each of the twelve-climate model runs in comparison to the reference period (1980-2010).  
All climate simulations show an increase in annual precipitation, except for CanESM5 SSP 3-7.0, MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP 2-4.5, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP 3-7.0. The precipitation increases range from 1 % to 24 %. This underscores the impacts of different SSPs and climate models on projected regional precipitation patterns and emphasizes their importance in comprehensive climate change assessments. 
In all scenarios, the projections indicate an increase in flood for different durations (1-day, 3-days) at all gauges across different return periods. The flood increase calculated for the three different climate models exhibits greater differences than the flood increase calculated for different SSPs across climate models. For example, in the Ave River, the range of the 100-year flood across SSPs varies from 81 m³/s (Min: 432m³/s, Max: 513 m³/s) for MPI-ESM1-2-HR to 225 m³/s (Min: 496 m³/s, Max: 721 m³/s) for EC-EARTH3. The corresponding range across models spans from 71 m³/s (Min: 425 m³/s, Max: 496 m³/s) for SSPs 3-7.0 to 213 m³/s (Min: 508 m³/s, Max: 721 m³/s) for SSPs 5-8.5. The 100-year flood (1-day duration) in the reference period value is 372 m³/s. In addition, the duration of low-flow events increases significantly for most climate scenarios. This increase in extreme events, which includes both, an increase in the volume of floods and an increase in the duration of droughts, emphasizes the need for proactive measures to address and adapt to the anticipated changes in hydrological patterns due to climate change.
However, our findings show that the selection of the climate model has a great impact on the hydrological variables. Decision-makers should carefully choose a climate model aligned with their planning objectives, considering the potential risk for robust planning.

Keywords: Climate change, CIMP6 Climate Model, MIKE-SHE, Ave catchment 

How to cite: Zargar, M., Reichenau, T. G., Babker, Z., and Schneider, K.: Assessing Climate Change Effects on Hydrology in the Ave catchment, Portugal: A Comparative Analysis of Various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11231, 2024.

EGU24-11834 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Climate change impact on the hydrological processes over an alpine basin: the Adige River 

Martin Morlot, Alison L. Kay, and Giuseppe Formetta

Hydrological extremes (drought and floods) have undeniable financial implications and are predicted to grow in the next years. Yet to understand their future local impacts it is necessary to understand the evolution of the governing hydrological processes. Such is the case for the Adige basin, an important basin in Italy, where understanding changing patterns of hydrological processes is crucial to optimally plan competing water uses, such as hydroelectric production and agricultural water allocation.

Euro-CORDEX models provide future climate projections throughout the region, for different emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) and climate models (13). Upon the application of a downscaling and bias correction methodology against observed climate variables (i.e. air temperature and precipitation), a process-based semi-distributed digital twin of the Adige River basin is implemented. Hydrological process variables (snow, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture and discharge) are obtained for the entire basin and the timespans of the different Euro-CORDEX models (1980-2005 for the historical baselines, 2005-2100 for the projections) at daily temporal scale and 5 km2 spatial resolution. The temporal and spatial patterns for discharges are evaluated through the average monthly values for 6 sub-catchments. Other process variables such as snow, actual-evapotranspiration (AET) and soil moisture (SM) are assessed against remote sensing datasets. The resulting climate and hydrological end of the century projections (2075-2100) are compared to historical baselines (1980-2005), to assess projected changes.

The digital-twin model is found to reproduce discharge patterns accurately, with an average KGE of 0.8, and provides a good fit for snow and AET, with average correlations of 0.95 and 0.96 respectively. A reasonable fit is found for SM, with an average correlation of 0.5. Careful assessment of the digital twin model through these variables ensures that it reproduces accurately historical local hydrological processes and increases confidence in the quantification of these variables under future projections.

The results of our study give regional policymakers insights into possible future scenarios and how these affect water resources and their potential impacts and adaptations on several economic sectors.

How to cite: Morlot, M., Kay, A. L., and Formetta, G.: Climate change impact on the hydrological processes over an alpine basin: the Adige River, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11834, 2024.

EGU24-11923 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.11

Using water use models to project long-term trends of water supply and demand equilibriums under climate change: application to the French Loire River basin. 

Camille Debein, Victor Vermeil, Raphaël Lamouroux, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Fabrice Zaoui, and René Samie

The French Loire River basin (81,000 km²) is characterized by a wide range of water uses (energy production, irrigation, drinking water supply, industrial processes, navigation, etc.). Recurring droughts and periods of low flow in the basin have emphasized the vulnerability of certain ecosystems and water uses in relation to the available resources. In addition, the prospect of global and local changes (climate change, changes in uses and territorial dynamics, etc.) added to evolutive environmental policies are expected to impact the availability of water resources in the upcoming years.

Within this evolving context of resource availability, we propose a quantified projection of future changes in the water supply-demand balance within the Loire River basin for two future timeframes, 2035-2065 (mid-term) and 2070-2099 (long-term), relative to the current climate (1976-2005). To achieve this, a modeling framework encompassing catchment-scale representations of climate, natural resource distribution, and primary water uses (energy, irrigation, drinking water supply, and industry) has been developed. Spatial and temporal heterogeneities are accounted for with a semi-distributed hydrological model [1] (using sub-catchment meshes of nearly 100 km2) and a daily time-step. This framework builds upon previous hydrological studies [2] and enables the representation of impacts on resource availability resulting from both natural and anthropogenic forcing variables.

Initially validated over the historical period (1976-2005) through comparison with national discharge monitoring networks and water use databases, this modeling chain was fed with data from four climate evolution trajectories taken from the Explore2 project that outline contrasting storylines of climate changes over the Loire basin. Simulation results reveal a decrease in water resources and an increase in global water demand, particularly in summer, correlating with increasing average air temperature and the relative reduction of precipitation. Evaluation of water stress indicators [3] suggests that tensions between water supply and demand will become increasingly frequent and more intense, particularly in summer.

This work emphasizes the interest of coupling water use modeling with hydrological simulations and advocates for evaluating the impact of changes in the territory (such as socio-economic or land use dynamics) on the resource.

Figure 1. Schematic representation of the modeling chain involved in quantifying the supply-demand balance.

(A) (B)

Figure 2. Spatial heterogeneity of the Blue Water Stress (A) and the Blue Water Scarcity (B) indicators [3] evaluated over the considered catchment area of the Loire River (august 2070-2099 for the “hot and humid” Explore2 climate trajectory, RCP 8.5).

 

References:

[1] Rouhier, L., Le Lay, M., Garavaglia, F., and Le Moine (2017). Impact of mesoscale spatial variability of climatic inputs and parameters on the hydrological response. Journal of Hydrology, 553, 13-25.

[2] Samie, R., Monteil, C., Arama, Y., Bouscasse, H., and Sauquet, E. (2014). La prospective territoriale, un outil de réflexion sur la gestion de l’eau du bassin de la Durance en 2050. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions, 221.

[3] Wang, Dan, Klaus Hubacek, Yuli Shan, Winnie Gerbens-Leenes, and Junguo Liu. (2021). "A Review of Water Stress and Water Footprint Accounting" Water 13, no. 2: 201.

How to cite: Debein, C., Vermeil, V., Lamouroux, R., Monteil, C., Hendrickx, F., Zaoui, F., and Samie, R.: Using water use models to project long-term trends of water supply and demand equilibriums under climate change: application to the French Loire River basin., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11923, 2024.

The rising costs and safety concerns associated with flood-induced infrastructure damages in Canada underscores the critical need for adapting design flood magnitudes to future climate change. Creager flood envelope curves, which serve as the upper bound/limit of observed extreme flows for different drainage areas within a specific region, are widely employed by practitioners to estimate design flood magnitudes, which in the case of most river-crossing highway bridges is considered as 75-year flood magnitude. A framework for adapting Creager curves to future changes in streamflow is proposed in this study. To this end, Creager curves, for the current 1951–2020 period, are developed using regional frequency analysis (RFA) on annual maximum daily mean streamflow, considering 417 observation stations, located in seven major Canadian river basins (i.e., Fraser, Nelson, Mackenzie, Yukon, Churchill, St Lawrence and St John). The Creager coefficient C, which is the main parameter that defines flood envelope curves for different regions, under the current climate, exhibits considerable variability, ranging from 1 to 45, across the studied river basins.

To adapt Creager curves for future changes, a correction factor, RC, defined as the ratio of future to current period C values is proposed. Two RFA approaches were employed to calculate the ratio using simulated streamflow data, derived using a cell-to-cell routing scheme, applied to an ensemble of five-member Regional Climate Model (RCM) GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) simulated runoff for the current reference 1951–2020 and future 2021–2099 periods for the observation sites. The first RFA approach, considering only the GEM grid cells where the stations are located, suggests RC in the 0.3 to 1.6 range, with St John and St Lawrence River basins showing  values less than 1. The second approach, considering all GEM cells for a given region, produces comparable results but yields a wider range for RC and adds useful information in that RC values can also be established at ungauged locations, with RC values higher than 1.6 in various regions especially over western Canada. An evaluation of the level of confidence for RC , based on the GEM ensemble, reveal a higher level of confidence for most parts of the study domain. The second approach is likely to be a better choice for longer return periods considering the larger pooling of data. From a practical viewpoint, the proposed method for estimating future design floods is robust and transferrable to other basins but can benefit from using streamflow projections from other models for better quantification of uncertainty.

How to cite: Maria, D. and Sushama, L.: Flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12009, 2024.

EGU24-14169 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.11

Hydrokinetic resource assessment for the Canadian Arctic 

Koyena Bhattacharjee, Laxmi Sushama, and Julien Cousineau

Increasing renewable energy development has rekindled interest in hydrokinetic or in-stream river potential for power production using zero head turbines. This is also of interest for remote regions such as the Canadian Arctic where decentralized power production from renewable energy sources is an economically viable option in offsetting the high cost of diesel power production. However, one of the major obstacles is the absence of streamflow data at necessary spatial and temporal scales for these regions. This study estimates the hydrokinetic power potential for current-based systems in the rivers of the Canadian Arctic region, primarily Nunavut and adjoining regions, for the current and near-future periods, based on streamflow estimated using a routing scheme applied to runoff generated by ultra-high-resolution simulations of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, for a high emission scenario. GEM simulation for current climate, validated against gridded and station observation data, suggest reasonable performance of the model, particularly streamflow-relevant variables such as precipitation, snow water equivalent, soil and air temperatures given improved representation of processes and surface heterogeneity due to the higher resolution. This is also reflected in the comparison of simulated streamflow characteristics with available observations from HYDAT.

Hydrokinetic power estimates over the study region show patterns similar to those of flow velocity as expected, with maximum hydropower being noted during the summer season for the central regions of Nunavut. Since the near-future period spans only till 2040, the changes in flow velocity and hydrokinetic power are minimal with an overall decrease of 2.5% for the southern and western regions of Nunavut and an increase of 2.5 to 5 % for some of the northernmost regions of Nunavut. The study further identifies ideal locations for the installation of hydrokinetic turbines for energy extraction, which require daily flow velocities above pre-defined thresholds, by considering indirectly also the impact of river ice on flow velocities. The results of this study provide useful information on hydrokinetic resources for the high-altitude regions of Canada by introducing a science-based approach and serve as a foundation for additional detailed investigations for site-specific studies to support the implementation of hydrokinetic energy conversion systems.

How to cite: Bhattacharjee, K., Sushama, L., and Cousineau, J.: Hydrokinetic resource assessment for the Canadian Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14169, 2024.

EGU24-14318 | Orals | HS1.1.11

Balancing uncertainty when assessing climate change risk in large river basins: the case of the Murray Darling basin, Australia 

Andrew John, Avril Horne, Keirnan Fowler, Ranju Chapagain, and Rory Nathan

Climate change threatens water resources from local to global scales. However, there are significant challenges in assessing climate risk for large river basins, especially those with multiple jurisdictions and competing management objectives. Traditional methods follow a top-down approach, where the impacts of climate projections by climate models are simulated using hydrological and water resource models. While these methods can provide a detailed snapshot of how rivers are impacted under a small number of projected future climates, their computational burden, and challenges in linking water resource models owned by different jurisdictions mean it is difficult to robustly explore the implications of aleatory (from hydroclimate variability) and epistemic (from hydroclimate change) uncertainty. Unlike top-down approaches, bottom-up approaches can be used to better understand vulnerability under a range of possible future climate. Bottom-up approaches begin with a sensitivity analysis of important management objectives to multiple hydroclimate stressors. Unfortunately, bottom-up approaches are constrained when using complex system models in large river basins, as their methodologies typically require many times more simulations than top-down approaches.

The Murray Darling basin (MDB) is Australia’s most significant river basin. Irrigation in the basin supports over $30 billion (AUD) in agriculture and livelihoods for the 2.4 million residents. The MDB has significant environmental values, with RAMSAR wetlands, many endemic and threatened species, and it is the traditional land of over 50 first nations groups. We assessed the impacts of climate change on basin-wide inflows and key indicator sites using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. We stochastically generated multiple sequences of future hydroclimate conditions, which helps separate the influence of climate variability from climate change. We deliberately traded-off detail in our assessment by deriving simple functional relationships between sub-basin inflows and 21 key indicator sites using existing scenarios from the complex jurisdictional water resource models. This allowed us to assess far more replicates of stochastic data, more climate scenarios, and conduct a more rigorous stress test within the bottom-up framework than would normally be permitted using complex models.

The top-down approach provides a scenario-based assessment of likely conditions for water resources in the MDB, and spatially coherent projections of future inflows and river management metrics. The bottom-up approach provides more insight into spatial differences in sensitivity across the river catchments that make up the MDB, and can be used to both augment and help interpret outcomes from the top-down approach. The bottom-up approach also yields important thresholds in hydroclimate conditions which compromise basin-wide objectives (assessed through flow at the Murray River mouth which prevents the important lower lake system from becoming too saline). We consider top-down and bottom-up approaches to be complementary in assessing and adapting river systems to the impacts of climate change.

The simple methods used here are complementary with other more detailed impact models. The ease of undertaking simulations and computational efficiency means simple methods can filter down the range of possible conditions or stressors that contribute to uncertainty, allowing a more targeted set of simulations to be undertaken using detailed, but costly, water resource models.

How to cite: John, A., Horne, A., Fowler, K., Chapagain, R., and Nathan, R.: Balancing uncertainty when assessing climate change risk in large river basins: the case of the Murray Darling basin, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14318, 2024.

EGU24-16678 | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Using a detailed abstraction database to plan assessing current and future water resources availability in Scotland. 

David Haro Monteagudo, Shaini Naha, and Miriam Glendell

Scotland’s land and water resources are increasingly vulnerable to periods of droughts, impacting water users and the water environment. Abstractions from sectors with high water demands are forecasted to exacerbate the direct impacts of climate change by amplifying both the frequency and the duration of drought events. Previous studies that have assessed the potential future water scarcity in Scotland were limited by the lack of available data on actual abstractions. These studies assumed that all abstraction licences were used at their maximum (i.e., were based on worst case scenario); and did not account for public water supply abstractions. Therefore, there is a need for accessible data on timely, open, and detailed abstraction return values for all sectors to overcome these limitations to allow a more accurate assessment of the current state of Scotland’s water resources and their vulnerability to climate extremes. We have collated a database that comprises of abstracted daily volumes from different locations within the water bodies, for various sectors from Scottish Environmental Protection Agency and abstracted daily volumes for public water supply aggregated at the catchment level from Scottish Water. We then use these daily abstraction time series available for the common time 2018-2022, in conjunction with available daily river flow historical and future projections, to determine the available volume of water, per catchment, per day. This enables extracting the drought events, and drought characteristics such as frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts. This research will inform future water resources management in Scotland by identifying which regions and sectors may be subject to increased water scarcity pressures in the future.

How to cite: Haro Monteagudo, D., Naha, S., and Glendell, M.: Using a detailed abstraction database to plan assessing current and future water resources availability in Scotland., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16678, 2024.

EGU24-19003 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.11

Land cover planning strategies and Water Use Optimization of a Mediterranean Basin Under Climate Change  

Serena Sirigu, Roberto Corona, Adriano Ruiu, Riccardo Zucca, and Nicola Montaldo

Over the past century, climate change has been affecting precipitation regimes across the world, and in the Mediterranean regions there is a persistent declining trend of precipitation and runoff decreases contributing to a desertification process with dramatic consequences for agricultural and water resources sustainability. Climate change projections point to an amplification of changes in global precipitation patterns and trends, with further drier trends for the Mediterranean area. These trends will have dramatic consequences on water resources for both managed (e.g., agricultural) and natural systems. In Mediterranean climates during the winter months much of the precipitation recharges sub-surface and surface reservoirs. In particular, in Mediterranean regions a strong decreasing trend of winter precipitation and an evident shift in how the precipitation is distributed across the winter and spring months is estimated. Considering that most of the runoff to surface reservoirs occurs in the winter months and that spring hydrologic response is likely to be influenced strongly by vegetation, these precipitation changes can be considered hydrologically important. Case study is the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is one of the case studies of the ALTOS European project, characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari. Data are from 42 rain gauges stations (1922-2023 period) over the entire basin and data of runoff are available for the same period. In the Flumendosa reservoir system the average annual input from stream discharge in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. We developed and calibrated a distributed hydrological model at basin scale which predicts runoff, soil water storage, evapotranspiration and grass and tree leaf area index (LAI). Hydrometeorological variables provided by the future climate scenarios predicted by Global Climate Model (CMPI-6 MPI-ESM1-2-LR downscaled) have been used as input in the model to predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics under the future hydrometeorological landcover scenarios. The historical observations highlighted strong negative trends in precipitation series and number of wet days (examined using the Mann-Kendall trend test). The results from model application showed that tree dynamics are strongly influenced by the inter-annual variability of atmospheric forcing, with tree density changing according to seasonal rainfall. At the same time the tree dynamics affected the soil water balance. We demonstrated that future warmer scenarios would impact forest, which could be not able to adapt to the increasing droughts. In the Flumendosa basin future scenarios predict a reduction of the runoff, which is crucial for the dam reservoir recharge. The water resources system planning needs to carefully takes into account the effect of future climate change on water resources and vegetation dynamics.

How to cite: Sirigu, S., Corona, R., Ruiu, A., Zucca, R., and Montaldo, N.: Land cover planning strategies and Water Use Optimization of a Mediterranean Basin Under Climate Change , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19003, 2024.

HS1.2 – Innovative sensors and monitoring in hydrology

EGU24-7295 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

Developing gravimetric water level meter 

YooSik Jeong, Ho Jeong Jo, Soo Jeong Park, and Oh Yoon Kong

According to Korean Statistical Information Service(KOSIS)’s data, the area of the Republic of Korea is 100,444 km2 and the area of Seoul, the capital city of Korea, is 605 km2, which is only 0.6 % of the area of Korea. However, the population of the Korea is 51.75 million, and that of Seoul is 9.39 million, accounting for a large 18 % of Korea. A large number of these densely populated cities are located in river basins. In most of time, water resources stored upstream are used as various purposes(drinking, industrial, and agricultural use) and drained downstream. During summer monsoon, however, rain that falls in the basin is discharged downstream as quickly as possible to prevent flooding. But heavy, concentrated rain caused by recent climate change often leads to capacity to exceed designed capacity. Moreover, inundation occurred due to neglect of neglect of drain pipe and street inlet and is becoming a serious social problem.

This study was conducted to observe the ‘flood level’ in the city, which is basic data for flood management. We already have the ability to accurately and conveniently measure the water level and transmit the data when flooding occurs at multiple point in the city. To monitor water levels in underpasses and areas where poor drainage is expected, rods on the centerline of roadway or border of the sidewalk are used. The prototype has been completed, and additional work is underway to miniaturize the built-in equipment(board, communication, and battery) and to extend battery duration. To maintain accuracy of measurement in the process of the miniaturization, it is important to secure enough distance between weight and outer case to minimize the surface tension effect. So it is necessary to understand the relationship between the weight-outer case distance and water level observation measurements. This relationship was confirmed through various weights and outer cases. As a result, the accuracy was found to be sufficient when a weight-outer case distance is about 9 mm or longer.

Acknowledgement : This research was support by a (2022-MOIS63-002) of Cooperative Research Method and Safety Management Technology in National Disaster funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea).

How to cite: Jeong, Y., Jo, H. J., Park, S. J., and Kong, O. Y.: Developing gravimetric water level meter, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7295, 2024.

EGU24-7444 | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

Development of Portable Weather Observation System 

Mi Eun Park and Yong Hee Lee

In the event of a large-scale forest fire, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)’s weather observation vehicles are deployed to obtain weather information necessary for extinguishing the fire. However, due to the limited number of vehicles and the environment to enter the field, it is difficult to observe the point where the information is actually needed. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a weather observation system that is easy to transport and install in the field.

We developed a 'portable weather observation system' that can be easily utilized by anyone, even if the KMA does not support weather observation vehicles and their operators at the disaster site.

 - [Transport] Weight and size that can be easily carried by one adult in a suitcase (or backpack).
 - [Installation] Attached to a steel plate, such as the top of a vehicle without any additional components. If this is not possible, a tripod can be utilized for installation.
 - [Operation] Real-time storage, display, and transmission of observation data
 - [Information] Location of the observation site (latitude, longitude and altitude) and weather variables (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and wind direction*∙wind speed) of the observation site.
  * Corrected regardless of the system's installation orientation

The prototype consists of a weather observation sensor, two GPS antennas, a tripod, a data processing/storage/display unit, and a power supply unit, and the total weight of the components including the suitcase (10 kg) is 20 kg. The weather observation sensor used is the Vaisala WXT-536, which can observe weather variables. Two GPS antennas were used to determine the location of the sites and correct the wind direction observed by the sensor. The system can be directly utilized by the Korea Forest Service (KFS) and the National Fire Agency (NFA) for initial extinguishment of wildfires.

By applying weather observation data transmitted in real-time from the field to numerical forecasting models, the KMA can provide more accurate weather forecasts back to the field. In the future, we plan to improve the prototype by utilizing an inexpensive sensor and lightweight and long-lasting batteries to reduce the cost and weight as well as increase the operating time.

How to cite: Park, M. E. and Lee, Y. H.: Development of Portable Weather Observation System, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7444, 2024.

EGU24-11069 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

Lake SkyWater - a portable optical buoy for easily measuring water-leaving radiance in lakes based on the skylight-blocked approach (SBA) 

Arthur Coqué, Tiphaine Peroux, Guillaume Morin, and Thierry Tormos

Spaceborne optical sensors are a useful tool for monitoring water quality in oceans, lakes and rivers on a large scale, at high frequency and at relatively low costs. Based on water colour algorithms, many key biogeochemical parameters are operationally estimated from satellite data (e.g. chlorophyll-a concentration). Calibrating and validating these algorithms requires a huge collection of high-quality in situ radiometric data, such as the water-leaving radiance Lw (or the remote sensing reflectance Rrs), necessitating high-level expertise and expensive material.

One of the most robust methods to measure Lw is the skylight-blocked approach (SBA), which allows Lw to be measured directly at the air-water interface. Compared with the conventionnal “above-water” method, the measurement is not contaminated by light reflected from the surface (including both sky- and sun-glint), thanks to the use of a cone-shaped screen attached to the downward-facing radiance sensor (which measures Lw) that fully blocks all downward radiance at the air-water interface.

Our open-source system “Lake SkyWater” was designed around the idea of making in situ radiometry measurements in lakes user-friendly and affordable, while retaining the accuracy and robustness required for scientific and operational purposes. We have created a semi-autonomous buoy that implements the SBA method. Lake SkyWater is low-cost (<1 k€, excluding the cost of the two radiometers), lightweight, and easy to transport and deploy. Our new device addresses one of the main ongoing issues with the SBA protocol: the issue with the radiance sensor measuring water being in the direct sun shadow of the deployment platform.

Our device consists of two commercially available radiometers that use the MODBUS RTU protocol (e.g., TriOS RAMSES G2) controlled by open-source TinkerForge modules and mounted to a rotating platform attached on top of an inner-tube (the buoy). Everything has been optimised for maximal portability (allowing it to be taken on a commercial flight): 1) the buoy is inflatable and 2) the structure is made of lightweight anodised aluminium profiles and PETG 3D-printed parts, and can be disassembled and transported in a suitcase/bag (the longest part measures 745x40x20 mm). The buoy’s position, its absolute orientation as well as its tilt are recorded (thanks to the embedded GNSS receiver and the 9-DOF IMU), and the solar azimuth angle is derived from the buoy’s positioning data. This enables the system to calculate the motor adjustments needed to keep the radiance sensor on the sunny side of the instrument. Our device hosts its own WiFi network and can be controlled wirelessly over a mobile phone, tablet or PC. Additionally, the radiometric buoy can be transformed into a fully autonomous monitoring system by plugging in a Raspberry Pi to act as a data logger.

Lake SkyWater was designed in the context of my PhD thesis dedicated to the calibration and validation of water colour algorithms for Petit-Saut Reservoir in French Guyana.

How to cite: Coqué, A., Peroux, T., Morin, G., and Tormos, T.: Lake SkyWater - a portable optical buoy for easily measuring water-leaving radiance in lakes based on the skylight-blocked approach (SBA), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11069, 2024.

EGU24-11187 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

DISCO: a low-cost Device-Instrumented Secchi disk for water Clarity Observations 

Gaia Donini and Sebastiano Piccolroaz

Water clarity regulates light penetration in aquatic environments, influencing both physical and biological dynamics. Its influence extends to heat transfer within the water column, shaping the thermal structure of lakes. Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) in the euphotic zone is the source of energy for light-dependent organisms, which are crucial for ecological balance. The ability to accurately assess water clarity is therefore important in several aquatic science contexts, ranging from data analysis and process interpretation to modelling. Common metrics used to quantify water quality include the vertical attenuation coefficient Kd,PAR, a measure of light penetration, and the Secchi depth (ZSD), a measure of water visibility. The enduring simplicity and cost effectiveness of the Secchi disk has made it a global standard for measuring water clarity for almost two centuries. In contrast, Kd,PAR is typically determined using expensive instruments designed to measure light in the PAR range. This discrepancy highlights the need for innovative yet cost-effective methods that integrate both types of measurements. In this contribution, we present DISCO, a low-cost instrument that combines the standard and globally used Secchi disk with light attenuation measurement supported by light sensors. DISCO retains the traditional shape of a Secchi disk but is equipped with light-dependent resistors (LDRs), which are used as light sensors both looking up and down. In addition to the LDRs, the disk is also equipped with low-cost temperature and pressure sensors, all connected to an ArduinoUNO board. After calibrating the sensors against commercial instruments, DISCO was tested in two mountain lakes together with high-resolution PAR, temperature and pressure sensors used as a benchmark. The results show that the proposed low-cost instrument is able to reproduce the shape of the light profiles with proper quantification of the light attenuation coefficients. Its affordable cost and ease of construction and use is expected to increase the ability to make measurements in locations where expensive instruments are not available, thereby extending the coverage of water clarity monitoring sites. This in turn has potential implications for wider in-situ calibration of remote sensing products. The prototype of DISCO will be shown at the poster session.

How to cite: Donini, G. and Piccolroaz, S.: DISCO: a low-cost Device-Instrumented Secchi disk for water Clarity Observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11187, 2024.

EGU24-15584 | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

Leveraging inland radar altimetry over rivers with low cost GNSS reflectometry 

Roelof Rietbroek, Zeleke K. Challa, Michael Kizza, Modathir Zaroug, Tom Kanyike, and Calvince Wara

The monitoring of surface water levels in lakes and rivers is essential for adequate water resource management and timely responding to extreme events. Monitoring an entity as large as the Nile river comes with significant challenges. The cross-boundary nature of the Nile, complicates its management due to different jurisdictions and interests, furthermore there are logistical challenges related to accessibility and site safety.

Radar altimetry has the potential to offer remotely sensed water heights, but still requires expert knowledge and site-specific trial and error. Generating in-situ records of water level heights is therefore invaluable activity both for monitoring and validation purposes.

Low-cost Global Navigations Satellite Systems (GNSS) interferometric reflectometry promises a low-cost solution for monitoring water heights, and devices can be locally constructed using off the shelf components which are now widely available. Furthermore, the development of internet of things (IoT) networks in Africa is moving forward and creates opportunities for remotely controlled measurement stations.

Here, we present our activities on designing and deploying low-cost GNSS-R receivers on the shores of Lake Victoria. We show several designs based on raspberry Pi’s and a low-power version based on the Actinius Icarus platform (zephyr based). We further explore possibilities to apply on-board processing of GNSS signal to noise ratio series, which will pave the way for using low bandwidth networks.

How to cite: Rietbroek, R., K. Challa, Z., Kizza, M., Zaroug, M., Kanyike, T., and Wara, C.: Leveraging inland radar altimetry over rivers with low cost GNSS reflectometry, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15584, 2024.

EGU24-16629 | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

SETIER Project: An open source flowmeter for monitoring flow rates output of waste water treatment 

Arnold Imig, Hélène Guyard, Stephanie Prost-boucle, Valerie Quatela, Sylvain Moreau, Julien Sudre, and Rémi Clément

Different types of sensors are used continuously or intermittently in urban water management systems. They are primarily useful for monitoring and controlling medium to large treatment plants, allowing the recording of physical parameters such as inflow and/or outflow rates or the temperature of the facilities (Murphy et al., 2015). Additionally, continuously measured parameters include those specifically used to monitor physico-chemical processes throughout the treatment: electrical conductivity, pH, turbidity, redox potential, or dissolved oxygen in the basins, as well as insufflated air flow rates. For smaller-scale stations (< 2,000 EH), water quality monitoring is often more limited, frequently confined to batch counting or using malfunction sensors (for instance, effluent overflow).Furthermore, taking the example of reed bed filters (RBF), which are primarily advantageous for operators due to their operational simplicity, the use of sensors could be seen as complicating this system primarily intended for rural areas (Rao et al., 2013). The costs of purchasing and maintaining measurement chains may appear excessively high depending on the parameters used, an opinion shared by municipalities and operators whose financial resources are increasingly constrained (Prost-Boucle et al., 2022). The issue of sensor costs is particularly significant for smaller stations, significantly impacting operational budgets. It is also worth noting the difficulty in repairing and maintaining these solutions, often regarded as black boxes for users, requiring complete upgrades at regular intervals. As part of the Setier project, we have developed a series of Open-hardware tools for the management and monitoring of wastewater treatment plants. The objective of our presentation will be to showcase an open-source ultrasonic flowmeter. This flowmeter allows monitoring variations in Venturi channels, encompassing heights from 0 to 1 meter. It offers a 1mm resolution, and all design elements are shared online. The uniqueness of our system lies in its requirement for no component soldering like “Lego”. The flowmeter is programmable via the Arduino IDE. As for data collection, it is done using a smartphone through a web server embedded in the Arduino MKR1010 Wifi board. Our presentation will highlight the first measurement results from a 6-month wastewater treatment plant.

 

Murphy, K., Heery, B., Sullivan, T., Zhang, D., Paludetti, L., Lau, K.T., Diamond, D., Costa, E., O׳Connor, N., Regan, F., 2015. A low-cost autonomous optical sensor for water quality monitoring. Talanta 132, 520–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TALANTA.2014.09.045

Prost-Boucle, S., Kamgan Nzeufo, H., Bardo, T., Moreau, S., Guyard, H., Duwig, C., Kim, B., Dubois, V., Gillot, S., Clement, R., 2022. Capteurs bon marché et centrales d’acquisition DIY pour les eaux usées : le projet Setier: Low-cost sensors and datalogger open hardware for wastewaters: Setier project. TSM 35–44. https://doi.org/10.36904/tsm/202201035

Rao, A.S., Marshall, S., Gubbi, J., Palaniswami, M., Sinnott, R., Pettigrovet, V., 2013. Design of low-cost autonomous water quality monitoring system. Presented at the 2013 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics (ICACCI), pp. 14–19. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICACCI.2013.6637139

How to cite: Imig, A., Guyard, H., Prost-boucle, S., Quatela, V., Moreau, S., Sudre, J., and Clément, R.: SETIER Project: An open source flowmeter for monitoring flow rates output of waste water treatment, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16629, 2024.

EGU24-18913 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

A low-cost multi-sensor platform for monitoring real-time hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics across land-stream interfaces 

Lluís Gómez Gener, Antoine Wiedmer, and Lluís Camarero Galindo

The recognition of global change impacts on catchments and the waters they drain emphasizes the need to better understand and predict both hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. To achieve this great endeavor, a key priority is to substantially increase the number of multi-annual time series, covering a broad range of river types and filling existing geographical gaps (e.g., low-income regions in/and remote areas). However, commercial multi-sensor solutions are not affordable to everyone. The multi-sensor platform consists of a STM32 micro-controller board combined with a data logger module, and a set of sensors to measure hydro-chemical properties both at different depths in soils (adjacent to the streams) as well as within streams: temperature, water level, moisture, electrical conductivity, turbidity, dissolved O2 and CO2. The monitoring system is also equipped with a wireless communication capability using LoRa network technologies. To make our project as accessible as possible, we have designed, built, and programmed the multi-sensor adopting the Open Source Hardware and Software philosophy. Through the complete processes of pre-calibration and in situ measurement, the preliminary results illustrate that the proposed multi-sensor system can provide long-term, high-frequency hydrological and biogeochemical data across land-stream interfaces while keeping the balance of costs and accuracy.

How to cite: Gómez Gener, L., Wiedmer, A., and Camarero Galindo, L.: A low-cost multi-sensor platform for monitoring real-time hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics across land-stream interfaces, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18913, 2024.

EGU24-19085 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

Rainfall Intensity Estimation Based on Raindrops Sound: Leveraging the Convolutional Neural Network for Analyzing Spectrogram 

Seunghyun Hwang, Jinwook Lee, Jongyun Byun, Kihong Park, and Changhyun Jun

In this study, we propose a novel approach for precipitation measurement based on rainfall acoustics, utilizing an effective rainfall acoustic collection device with low-cost IoT sensors housed in waterproof enclosure. Here, rainfall acoustics refer to the sound generated when raindrops fall and collide with surfaces such as the ground or canopy. Even at the same rainfall intensity, depending on the medium with which raindrops collide, acoustics with different frequency characteristics may occur. In this research, an acoustic collection device, combining a Raspberry Pi and a condenser microphone, was inserted into a waterproof enclosure and deployed in a rainfall environment to collect rainfall acoustics. This approach not only controls the medium of rainfall acoustics but also effectively blocks ambient noise and water, ensuring consistent characteristics of rainfall acoustics regardless of the installation environment. The collected rainfall acoustics were segmented into 10-second intervals, and spectrograms in the frequency domain were extracted by applying Short-Time Fourier Transform for each segment. Finally, using the extracted spectrogram as input data, a rainfall intensity estimation model based on a convolutional neural network was developed and other precision rainfall observation instruments (e.g., PARSIVEL, Pluvio², etc.) were considered collectively for the validation of the developed rainfall intensity estimation model. Acoustic-based rainfall observation enables the establishment of a dense observation network using low-cost devices. Leveraging the high temporal resolution of acoustic data, extremely short observation periods for rainfall can be achieved. This methodology presents an opportunity for cost-effective and high-spatiotemporal-resolution rainfall observation, overcoming the limitations of traditional methods.

Keywords: Acoustic Sensing, Rainfall Acoustics, Precipitation, Convolutional Neural Network

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. RS-2023-00250239) and in part by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant RS-2023-00243008.

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No.NRF-2022R1A4A3032838).

How to cite: Hwang, S., Lee, J., Byun, J., Park, K., and Jun, C.: Rainfall Intensity Estimation Based on Raindrops Sound: Leveraging the Convolutional Neural Network for Analyzing Spectrogram, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19085, 2024.

EGU24-19610 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.1

Open-hardware-based data logger platform for independently operating outdoor instrumentation 

Jannis Weimar and Markus Köhli

Open hardware-based microcontrollers, especially the Arduino platform, have become a comparably easy-to-use tool for rapid prototyping, stand-alone systems and implementing creative solutions. Such devices in combination with dedicated frontend electronics, external sensors and modems can offer low cost alternatives for student projects and independently operating small scale instrumentation. The capabilities of sensor-to-sensor communication can be extended to data taking and signal analysis at decent rates. Low-cost approaches to environmental monitoring will be critical for developing the evidence base needed to better understand the climate system, specifically in our case for understanding the water cycle. Off-the-shelf-components-based, internet-connected devices are easy to monitor and maintain, low risk and capable of extensive deployment to address the challenge of geographical variability and can address user- and site-specific demands. We present our project of a data logger platform "nCollector" based on an Arduino DUE, including data storage on SD cards, serial data transmission via USB, RS485, SDI-12, telemetry via GSM (4G), Nb-IoT and LoRa including its power supply and a minimal user interface. For outdoor instrumentation we specifically designed a solution with a low power demand of 0.2 W in order to realize 24/7 operation under harsh conditions with medium sized PV panels and batteries. With our presentation we want to provide a model case for other researchers to take inspiration from, share our experience with building and deploying over 100 systems all over Europe and help engaging the community to enhance their own instrumentation and data taking. 

How to cite: Weimar, J. and Köhli, M.: Open-hardware-based data logger platform for independently operating outdoor instrumentation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19610, 2024.

EGU24-2305 | Posters on site | HS1.2.5

Pedotransfer functions and their impact on water dynamics simulation and yield prediction 

Pablo Rosso, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Janis Groh, Horst Gerke, Kurt Heil, and Robin Gebbers

The dynamics of water availability for plant growth is particularly important for crop productivity simulation. Critical for the prediction of crop growth and development is the accurate simulation of soil moisture variation time. Soil capacity-based models assume that the vertical movement of water in the soil is mostly controlled by the intrinsic soil water retention capacities (WRCs), mainly field capacity (FC) and wilting point (WP). However, FC and WP are difficult to measure directly. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been developed to determine these parameters from basic, more readily available soil attributes such as texture and soil organic carbon content. Functional evaluation, a procedure to assess the appropriateness of a PTF, entails testing the sensitivity of the different PTFs to model’s target simulation outcomes. This study constitutes an attempt to quantify and understand the impact of different PTFs on crop yield in a soil capacity-based model.

Six PTFs were used in the crop model HERMES to test their ability to simulate soil water dynamics and to determine their effect on yield simulation. This study, carried out in Germany, included three sandy soil sites in Brandenburg and a silty soil site in Bavaria. Five lysimeters at a site in Brandenburg provided a complete record for assessing the performance of PTFs. Measured soil texture and organic carbon were used as inputs in HERMES, which by applying the PTFs under study, produced the corresponding estimates of WRPs used for soil water dynamic simulations and yield predictions. Soil water records were statistically compared with model outputs to assess the accuracy of each PTF-based simulation. Differences in yield predictions were measured to estimate the sensitivity of the crop model to the PTFs tested.

Not a single PTF performed best in all sites. PTFs by Batjes and Rosetta were the best performers at the three Brandenburg sites. At Duernast, Bavaria, all PTFs resulted in higher errors than at the other sites. At this site, the measured soil water content maxima during the rainy months appeared very variable from year to year, which was unexpected if assumed that the maxima should stay around FC and be fairly constant. In general, HERMES simulations followed the trends in measured soil water dynamics regardless of the PTF applied, whereas differences between PTFs appear on the magnitude of the water maxima during the winter months. This shows that the accuracy of PTFs largely depended on their ability to correctly estimate FC. The highest variability in yield prediction for the different PTFs was observed in the three Brandenburg sites, which also corresponded with higher differences in FC estimation. A closer look at the sandy sites, and simulations with a synthetic soil database showed that differences in yield simulation between PTFs increased proportionally with soil sand percent. This points out at the empirical nature of PTFs and the care that needs to be taken when applied in new situations.

How to cite: Rosso, P., Kersebaum, K.-C., Groh, J., Gerke, H., Heil, K., and Gebbers, R.: Pedotransfer functions and their impact on water dynamics simulation and yield prediction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2305, 2024.

Nitrate pollution of groundwater is still an issue of concern at many drinking water wells located in the Swiss lowlands, where agricultural areas are the main pollution source. Extensification measures (e.g. conversion of arable land to extensive grassland, reduction of vegetable/potato areas in favor of cereals) are generally considered to be effective to reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater. However, these measures are also associated with large losses in agricultural productivity and can thus only be implemented on small focused areas within contribution zones of drinking water wells. It is hypothesized here that the trade-offs between agricultural production and groundwater protection can better be managed if more nuanced mitigation strategies are implemented at a broader scale. Such strategies would target at an improved synchrony between plant nitrogen demands and soil nutrient availabilities (e.g. by inclusion of cover crops and optimizing crop rotations, through reduced soil management and demand-driven fertilization practices). Since evaluating the effects of such strategies is anything but trivial given the high complexity of the process interactions and the strong influence of climatic variability, it is the aim of this work to train a mechanistic field scale model that simulates soil water and nutrient dynamics at a field scale in response to soil, climate and management drivers (DAISY model). The calibration builds on an extensive dataset from the lysimeter station Zurich Reckenholz including detailed data since 2009 on nitrate leaching, seepage water generation, soil moisture, water tension, soil temperature, and crop yields for a series of different experiments including non-inversion tillage, cover cropping as well as different fertilization types and amounts. The calibration strategy and selected calibration/validation results will be presented and discussed in context with implications for model applications.

How to cite: Holzkämper, A.: Managing the trade-off between agricultural productivity and groundwater protection in Switzerland – a model-approach based on long-term lysimeter data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2703, 2024.

EGU24-2783 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.5

Critical Soil Moisture Content Estimated from Lysimeter Time Series for Different Soil, Vegetation and Weather conditions 

Xiao Lu, Jannis Groh, Thomas Pütz, Alexander Graf, Mathieu Javaux, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial terrestrial ecosystem process that links water, energy, and carbon cycles. ET can be limited by either energy or water availability. The transition between water- and energy-limited regimes is associated with the soil moisture content, and can be postulated as the soil moisture content reaching a threshold, denoted as critical soil moisture (θcrit). Knowledge of θcrit is important for improving land surface, hydrological and crop models and predicting hydroclimate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves. However, the quantification of θcrit and the factors that impact θcrit are still not well understood. Here we used precise lysimeter observations to quantify θcrit by analyzing the relationship between soil moisture content and evaporative fraction (EF), as well as the relationship between soil moisture content and the actual ET/ potential ET ratio during drydowns. We estimated θcrit not only at the surface layer using in situ soil moisture measurements at 10 cm depth, but also for the root zone using vertically integrated in situ soil moisture (0–50 cm) observations. We estimated θcrit across various soil textures (e.g., sandy loam, silty loam, clay loam), vegetation types (grass, crop), as well as weather conditions from western and eastern Germany (spatial distances: 10 ~ 600 km). Especially, with some lysimeters that were taken from their original environment and translocated to other regions, we can identify the shift of θcrit with the same soil and vegetation but under different weather conditions, which can provide implication on changes of θcrit under global warming. We would expect a dependence of θcrit on soil texture and weather condition. We found for example that at the same site with the same crop rotation on the lysimeters but different soils, the sandy loamy soil experienced a lower θcrit (approximate 0.15 m3/m3) than the silty loamy soil (approximate 0.17 m3/m3), indicating that the higher content of sand would lead to the lower θcrit. In addition, an increase in θcrit was observed when the lysimeter was translocated from a site with a lower potential ET to a site with a higher potential ET.

How to cite: Lu, X., Groh, J., Pütz, T., Graf, A., Javaux, M., Vereecken, H., and Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.: Critical Soil Moisture Content Estimated from Lysimeter Time Series for Different Soil, Vegetation and Weather conditions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2783, 2024.

EGU24-3404 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.5

Effects of changes in climatic conditions on soil water storage patterns 

Annelie Ehrhardt, Jannis Groh, and Horst H. Gerke

The soil water storage (SWS) defines crop productivity of a soil and varies under differing climatic conditions. Pattern identification and quantification of these variations remains difficult due to the non-linear behaviour of SWS changes over time.

We hypothesize that these patterns can be revealed by applying wavelet analysis to an eight-year time series of SWS, precipitation (P) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in similar soils of lysimeters in a colder and drier location and a warmer and wetter location within Germany. Correlations between SWS, P and ETa at these sites might reveal the influence of altered climatic conditions but also from subsequent wet and dry years on SWS changes.

We found that wet and dry years exerted influence on SWS changes by leading to faster or slower response times of SWS changes to precipitation in respect to normal years. This might be explained by a higher soil water content and the related higher soil hydraulic conductivity. Time shifts in correlations between ETa and SWS became smaller at the wetter and warmer site over time in comparison to the cooler and drier site where they stayed constant. This could be attributed to an earlier onset of the vegetation period over the years and thus to an earlier ETa peak every year and reflects the direct impact of changing climate on soil water budget parameters. 

How to cite: Ehrhardt, A., Groh, J., and Gerke, H. H.: Effects of changes in climatic conditions on soil water storage patterns, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3404, 2024.

EGU24-9112 | Posters on site | HS1.2.5

Investigating herbicide transport and fate in vegetated lysimeters with numerical modeling and stable carbon isotopes 

Arno Rein, Anne Imig, Lea Augustin, Jannis Groh, Thomas Pütz, Martin Elsner, and Florian Einsiedl

The application of pesticides can induce severe impacts to the vadose zone, groundwater, and their ecosystems. A study was carried out on two lysimeters located in Wielenbach, Germany. Different soil textures were considered within the soil cores, consisting of sandy gravel and clayey sandy silt. The lysimeters were vegetated with maize, and four different herbicides were applied according to common agricultural practice. Over a period of 4.5 years, concentrations of the herbicides and selected metabolites were monitored in the lysimeter drainage. In addition, stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) were analyzed for investigating biodegradation influences of two of the applied herbicides.

In a first step, we characterized unsaturated flow in the lysimeters based on stable water isotope measurements (δ2H and δ18O) combined with modeling. Different setups within the numerical model HYDRUS-1D were compared, including single and dual porosity approaches. Then, the unsaturated flow models were extended for describing reactive transport of the herbicides, and simulations were interpreted in combination with measured δ13C values. 

At the end of the observations, 0.9 to 15.9% of the applied herbicides (up to 20.9% for herbicides plus metabolites) were recovered in lysimeter drainage. Some metabolites were observed to accumulate in drainage, and biodegradation was indicated by small isotopic shifts in δ13C to less negative values in the leached herbicides. In the later sampling campaign (7.5 months after herbicide application), a higher increase in δ13C (less negative values) compared to earlier sampling (19 days after application) points towards stronger biodegradation. This can be explained by a higher biodegradation potential when the infiltrated water and the herbicides were affected by longer mean transit times in the unsaturated zone.

Observations were reproduced by modeling, where the overall dynamics of herbicide concentration in the lysimeter drainage could be covered well by the model setups. The concentration peaks were partly associated with heavy precipitation, which in turn indicates that the transport was influenced by preferential flow. Limitations were found for describing preferential flow events by using single and dual porosity models, as some concentration peaks were over- or underestimated. The use of δ13C for compound-specific isotope analysis allowed obtaining some evidence on biodegradation of the two herbicides in the unsaturated zone, which was also validated with the model results. 

How to cite: Rein, A., Imig, A., Augustin, L., Groh, J., Pütz, T., Elsner, M., and Einsiedl, F.: Investigating herbicide transport and fate in vegetated lysimeters with numerical modeling and stable carbon isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9112, 2024.

The ongoing global concern regarding climate change necessitates innovative approaches to understand its complex dynamics. This presentation outlines the evolution of lysimeters and ecotrons, culminating in the development of a cutting-edge platform designed for comprehensive research on climate change parameters in both laboratory and field environments.

Lysimeters, traditionally employed to measure water movement and nutrient transport in soil, have undergone significant advancements. Enhanced instrumentation and sensor integration now allow for precise monitoring of multiple environmental factors, including soil moisture, temperature, and gas exchange. These improvements enable researchers to simulate and analyze various climate change scenarios in a controlled laboratory setting.

Simultaneously, ecotrons, specialized chambers designed to replicate natural ecosystems, have evolved to provide a more realistic representation of climate interactions. By incorporating advanced technologies such as remote sensing, automated data acquisition, and controlled environmental conditions, ecotrons now offer a holistic approach to studying the impact of climate change on ecosystems.

The integration of lysimeters under natural conditions and ecotrons into a unified platform represents a paradigm shift in climate change research. This new platform facilitates a seamless transition between controlled laboratory experiments and real-world field studies, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate relationships between climate change parameters.

Researchers can now explore the effects of elevated temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased greenhouse gas concentrations on soil health, plant growth, and ecosystem dynamics with unprecedented precision. The platform's adaptability and versatility make it a valuable tool for addressing urgent questions related to climate change impact mitigation and adaptation strategies.

In conclusion, the fusion of outdoor lysimeters and indoor ecotrons into a unified platform signifies a milestone in climate change research. This innovative approach provides researchers with a powerful tool to investigate and address the complex challenges posed by climate change, fostering a more sustainable and resilient future.

How to cite: Reth, S.: Advancements in Lysimeters and Ecotrons: A Novel Platform for Investigating Climate Change Parameters in Laboratory and Field Settings, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9489, 2024.

EGU24-9685 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.5 | Highlight

The need for realistic experimental setups in controlled environments: insights from a two-year ecotron experiment on earthworms’ impact on ecosystem H2O, CO2 and N2O dynamics 

Joana Sauze, Oswaldo Forey, Clément Piel, Emmanuel S. Gritti, Sébastien Devidal, Abdelaziz Faez, Olivier Ravel, Yvan Capowiez, Damien Landais, Jacques Roy, and Alexandru Milcu

Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of earthworms in modulating soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet the complexity of natural ecosystems and the lack of high-resolution temporal data have limited our understanding. To bridge this gap, a two-year experiment was undertaken in a controlled ecotron setting, utilizing large-scale lysimeters (5 square meters in area and 1.5 meters in soil depth) in the Macrocosms experimental platform of the Montpellier European Ecotron (CNRS). This study aimed to provide an understanding of the impact of earthworms (specifically endogeic and anecic ecotypes) on water and greenhouse gas emissions in a realistically simulated agricultural ecosystem undergoing a three-crop rotation.

We employed continuous, high-frequency monitoring to measure ecosystem-level exchanges of CO2, N2O, and H2O. While temporary increases in CO2 fluxes were noted in earthworm-inhabited replicates, the cumulative data over the entire study period did not demonstrate a significant increase in CO2 emissions. Interestingly, the presence of endogeic earthworms was correlated with a notable reduction in N2O emissions during wheat cultivation (by 44.6%), although this effect did not persist throughout the entire experimental timeline. Additionally, while earthworms had an impact on water infiltration along the soil profile, no consistent patterns were observed in terms of ecosystem evapotranspiration or water use efficiency (WUE) changes attributable to earthworm activity.

Our findings provide critical insights into the role of earthworms in terrestrial GHG dynamics, particularly in agricultural settings. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, this study suggests that earthworm activity does not lead to a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions over a period of two years under conditions that closely emulate agricultural environments. These results underscore the importance of conducting long-term, high-resolution studies in realistically simulated ecosystems to better comprehend the intricate relationships between soil biota and greenhouse gas emissions.

How to cite: Sauze, J., Forey, O., Piel, C., Gritti, E. S., Devidal, S., Faez, A., Ravel, O., Capowiez, Y., Landais, D., Roy, J., and Milcu, A.: The need for realistic experimental setups in controlled environments: insights from a two-year ecotron experiment on earthworms’ impact on ecosystem H2O, CO2 and N2O dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9685, 2024.

EGU24-11233 | Orals | HS1.2.5 | Highlight

Influence of climate and land management on water, carbon and nitrogen cycling in grasslands of the pre-alpine region of southern Germany 

Ralf Kiese, Marcus Schlingmann, Katrin Schneider, Sophie Reinermann, Anne Schucknecht, Jincheng Han, Thomas Koellner, Carolin Boos, and Michael Dannenmann

Pre-alpine grasslands provide important economic value through forage for milk and meat production. Grassland soils also support ecosystem services such as carbon and nitrogen storage, water retention, erosion control and biodiversity. These functions are currently threatened by climate change, which is likely to accelerate in the coming decades. In addition to climate change, management decisions such as mowing and fertilisation frequency have a major impact on grassland yields, biodiversity and soil C and N dynamics. In this presentation we will summarise results from long-term monitoring of control and translocated grassland soil monoliths (1m2; 1.4m height) as operated in TERENO and studied in detail in the SUSALPS project.

From 2012, moderate climate change (plus 2°C) has increased grassland productivity, unless water stress has reversed the temperature stimulating effect. However, this increase in plant growth is only possible because increased N mineralisation rates under climate change allow increased N demand to be met. As plant N uptake is already in the range of total N fertilisation rates under current climate conditions, N losses to the environment, such as microbial N2O emissions and nitrate leaching from montane grassland soils, are comparatively low. If other ecosystem N losses such as NH3 and N2 emissions are considered, it becomes clear that even under the present climatic conditions substantial N has to be provided by mineralisation of soil organic N, indicating soil N (and C) mining. As the latter is associated with negative effects on soil fertility/productivity, C sequestration and GHG exchange, as well as filtering functions to protect water bodies, this trend poses risks to key soil functions in the long term. The detailed investigations from long-term monitoring sites were essential for testing a process-based model (LandscapeDNDC), which was used together with remote sensing information for spatial and temporal upscaling of the results.

How to cite: Kiese, R., Schlingmann, M., Schneider, K., Reinermann, S., Schucknecht, A., Han, J., Koellner, T., Boos, C., and Dannenmann, M.: Influence of climate and land management on water, carbon and nitrogen cycling in grasslands of the pre-alpine region of southern Germany, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11233, 2024.

EGU24-11711 | Orals | HS1.2.5

The Deep Soil Ecotron – A Facility to Explore, Model, and Sense Deep Soil 

Zachary Kayler, Michael Strickland, David Williams, Rodrigo Vargas, Zeli Tan, Caley Gasch, Susan Crow, and Noah Fierer

The Deep Soil Ecotron will give researchers the unparalleled ability to investigate and experiment with deep soils while complementing established ecotrons across the globe. This facility, composed of twenty-four, highly instrumented ecounits, will allow for soil profiles up to three meters in depth to be repeatedly sampled and continuously monitored. This facility will be the first modern ecotron facility in the United States and as such will provide research infrastructure that this country currently lacks. The Deep Soil Ecotron will enable researchers to address the following four broad research needs using approaches and instrumentation that have been unattainable under more common field and laboratory experiments. First, the Deep Soil Ecotron will reveal how deep soil communities and processes affect and interact with surface soils to influence whole ecosystems. Second, the Deep Soil Ecotron will allow researchers to determine how deep soils and associated vegetation respond to global and land-use change, such as increasing soil temperature and agricultural management practices. Third, information gained from the Deep Soil Ecotron will be integrated into earth system models to improve model representation of soil carbon cycling. Fourth, the Deep Soil Ecotron will provide a testbed for the development of sensors for the in-situ monitoring of deep soils. This presentation will provide an overview of the Deep Soil Ecotron's design, capacity, and preliminary research agenda.

How to cite: Kayler, Z., Strickland, M., Williams, D., Vargas, R., Tan, Z., Gasch, C., Crow, S., and Fierer, N.: The Deep Soil Ecotron – A Facility to Explore, Model, and Sense Deep Soil, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11711, 2024.

EGU24-12759 | Orals | HS1.2.5

Enhanced understanding of water cycling processes of dwarf shrubs using high-precision lysimeters and climate manipulations 

Georg Leitinger, Elena Tello-García, Lucía Laorden-Camacho, Lisa Ambrosi, Karl Grigulis, Bello Mouhamadou, Christiane Gallet, Ursula Peintner, Ulrike Tappeiner, and Sandra Lavorel

Throughout European mountains, changes in livestock production systems since the 1950s have resulted in the gradual segregation between more accessible, flatter, and productive grasslands with intensified fodder production, and more remote, steeper, and less productive meadows used for extensive grazing, and some abandoned. After cessation of grazing in subalpine grasslands, secondary succession promotes the gradual colonization of species and functionally diverse herbaceous communities by shrubs. Although shrub encroachment is considered a ‘Plant Functional Type transformation’, our knowledge about the impact of climate change on shrub encroached ecosystems is still limited. Mechanistic analyses of alpine grassland responses to drought have focused on carbon fluxes, and a few studies have targeted components of the ecosystem water budget or nutrient cycling. However, these studies are focused on herbaceous functional groups, and shrubs are usually neglected. Moreover, despite the prevalence of this original climate change driver in mountains, snow manipulations are still rare.

To improve understanding of nitrogen and water cycling processes of shrubs with expected increased drought and advanced snowmelt, small high-precision lysimeters (SFL®, Meter Group AG, Munich, Germany) were used to analyze the effects and mechanisms of climate change on shrub species. In a garden experiment in the LTSER-site Stubai Valley (970 m a.s.l.), Tyrol Austria, two congeneric shrubs contrasting a deciduous (Vaccinium myrtillus) and evergreen (Vaccinium vitis-idaea) were planted into 16 lysimeters. In a split-plot design of 3.5m x 3.5m each, two plots were subject to either (1) control, (2) earlier snowmelt, or (3) summer drought treatments.

The manipulative experiments indicate that a shortening of the period with snow cover at the end of winter affects soil freezing and hence, soil nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) availability. Results further highlight the interacting effects of climate manipulations on key plant traits, and their consequences for N- and water availability. Furthermore, summer drought seems to additionally affect biogeochemical cycling and evapotranspiration for both investigated shrub types. This study's results reveal the importance of addressing the impact of shrub encroachment not only from a land management perspective but also to increasingly raise awareness about climate change effects on shrubs. Moreover, it provides valuable insights into challenges and chances of growing shrubs in lysimeters, being a promising approach for future climate impact studies. The study was conducted as part of the LUCSES project, ANR-FWF (ANR-20-CE91-0009 and FWF-I 4969-B).

How to cite: Leitinger, G., Tello-García, E., Laorden-Camacho, L., Ambrosi, L., Grigulis, K., Mouhamadou, B., Gallet, C., Peintner, U., Tappeiner, U., and Lavorel, S.: Enhanced understanding of water cycling processes of dwarf shrubs using high-precision lysimeters and climate manipulations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12759, 2024.

EGU24-14816 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.5

Can we bring alpine climate into ecotrons? 

Harald Crepaz, Johannes Klotz, Marco Cavalli, Ulrike Tappeiner, and Georg Niedrist

Climate change is advancing at an unprecedented pace, impacting terrestrial ecosystems, particularly those in alpine regions. Consequently, there is a growing need to comprehend the associated impacts, underlying mechanisms, and implications. Long-term monitoring may face challenges in capturing the effects of accelerated climate change, and in-situ experiments in remote alpine areas often grapple with logistical constraints. Furthermore, attributing vegetative responses to specific manipulated variables proves challenging, especially under extreme alpine conditions such as low atmospheric pressure, low temperatures, or high radiation levels.

Using a specially designed ecotron called 'TerraXcube' (Bozen, Italy), we investigated the feasibility of realistically reproducing harsh alpine conditions and explored the interactions among various parameters. For our measurements, we equipped the chamber with temperature and relative humidity probes, a spectrometer, barometer, and anemometer positioned at different heights within the chamber. We tested the spatial and temporal homogeneity of the variables— atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity (RH), and radiation—independently, as well as their interactions over time and in space, by simulating various realistic alpine climatic scenarios.

The measurements, conducted between -20°C and +25°C with relative humidity ranging from 10% to 95%, yielded satisfactory results. Over several hours, the largest difference at a specific position was 0.6°C and 4.3% RH, while the maximum difference between two sensors simultaneously was 1°C and 7% RH. At a height of 170 cm, the LED system emitted radiation at an intensity of 1,002 W/m² within the wavelength range of 280 to 900 nm; however, with a sharp decrease in intensity from the light source. The photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at the chamber's center reached 1,883 μmol·m−2·s−1, achieving 77% of the potential annual maximum measured at 2,400 m a.s.l. This enables us to replicate the PAR level for 97% of the days throughout the year. Despite the high light intensity, the heating effect of the LED system was limited to a maximum of 2°C in the upper 40cm of the chamber. Pressure manipulation, with the highest technical demand, nonetheless resulted in high temporal homogeneity up to 4,000m a.s.l., corresponding to 618.9 mbar.

In conclusion, the results emphasize the potential and utility of ecotrons in simulating a suitable climate for alpine ecological experiments. However, as in many ecotrons, it is crucial to acknowledge that minor island effects and irregularities are inevitable. Even more sophisticated parameters such as wind effects or pollinator function are currently not sufficiently addressed. A combined in- and outdoor usage of mobile field lysimeters might be a further step to bridge this gap between experimental results obtained in ecotrons and in the field.

How to cite: Crepaz, H., Klotz, J., Cavalli, M., Tappeiner, U., and Niedrist, G.: Can we bring alpine climate into ecotrons?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14816, 2024.

EGU24-15212 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.5

Effects of land use change on dry heathland soil moisture in a changing climate 

René Shaeffer, Francois Rineau, and Nadia Soudzilovskaia

Conversion of natural and semi-natural systems to agricultural use is one of the largest conservation
challenges of our time. As the world’s population continue to grow at unprecedented rates,
multinational organizations like the United Nations and its subsidiary the Food and Agriculture
Organization call for higher crop production and the expansion of existing agriculture to ensure future
food security, especially in the face of changing climate. However, these efforts will most likely endanger
numerous landscapes of historical and cultural value, including those found in northwest Europe. How
these possible changes in land use may alter the functions of these ecosystems and the associated
services they provide are questions that need to be answered before any policy decisions can be made.


Using a state-of-the-art ecotron facility, we compared soil moisture profiles between an intact dry
heathland system and heathland soils that had been cleared for cereal agriculture, both of which were
subjected to climate conditions projected for the year 2070, in line with the IPCC RCP8.5. After
continuously monitoring moisture changes in the top 1.5 meters of soil for three years, we found that
there are significant differences between the two modes of land use. Soils used for cereal crops were
significantly drier (up to >60%) in the upper 10-20cm than intact heathland soils, and significantly wetter
(up to >500%) at the lowest soil levels (140cm). This redistribution of moisture within the soil column
under different land use schemes can have serious implications for overall ecosystem functioning,
particularly with regard to potentially mitigating heathland soils’ ability to store and capture carbon and
exacerbating detrimental soil-climate feedbacks under agricultural use.

How to cite: Shaeffer, R., Rineau, F., and Soudzilovskaia, N.: Effects of land use change on dry heathland soil moisture in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15212, 2024.