EGU General Assembly 2024  

This study introduces an approach for land heatwave forecasting, using spatiotemporal machine learning models trained with ERA5 reanalysis data. We focused on key environmental variables like soil moisture, vegetation, and meteorological factors for modelling. The study utilized linear regression as a base model, augmented by more complex algorithms such as Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Graph Neural Networks (GNN). We defined heatwaves using temperature data from 1970-2000, and the training phase involved data from 2000 to 2020, focusing on predictive accuracy for 2021-2023. This methodology enabled a detailed exploration of heatwave trends and dynamics over an extended period. Finally, we used explainable AI methods to further deepen our understanding of the complex interplay between environmental variables and heatwave occurrences.

How to cite: Mazumder, S., Hahn, S., and Wagner, W.: Monitoring The Development Of Land Heatwaves Using Spatiotemporal Models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1101, 2024.

Deep learning methods have emerged as a potential alternative for the complex problem of climate data downscaling. Precipitation downscaling is challenging due to its stochasticity, skewness, and sparse extreme values. Also, the extreme values are essential to preserve during downscaling and extrapolating future climate projections, as they serve as trivial signals for impact assessments. This research looks into the usefulness of a deep learning method designed for gridded precipitation downscaling, focusing on how well it can generalize and transfer what it learns. This study configures and evaluates a deep learning-based super-resolution neural network called the Super-Resolution Deep Residual Network (SRDRN). Several synthetic experiments are designed to assess its performance over four geographically and climatologically distinct domain boxes over the Indian subcontinent. Domain boxes over Central India (CI), Southern Peninsula (SP), Northwest (NW), and Northeast (NE), exhibiting diverse geographical and climatological characteristics, are chosen to assess the generalization and transferability of SRDRN. Following the training on a set of samples from CI, SP and NW, the performance of the models is evaluated in comparison to the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), a renowned statistical downscaling method. NE is a transfer domain where the trained SRDRN models are directly applied without additional training or fine-tuning. Several objective evaluation metrics, like the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score, root mean squared error, mean absolute relative error, and percentage bias, are chosen for the evaluation of SRDRN. The systematic assessment of SRDRN models (KGE~0.9) across these distinct regions reveals a substantial superiority of SRDRN over the BCSD method (KGE~0.7) in downscaling and reconstructing precipitation rates during the test period, along with preserving extreme values with high precision. In conclusion, SRDRN proves to be a promising alternative for the statistical downscaling of gridded precipitation.

Keywords: Precipitation, Statistical downscaling, Deep learning, Transfer learning, SRDRN

How to cite: Murukesh, M. and Kumar, P.: Downscaling and reconstruction of high-resolution precipitation fields using a deep residual neural network: An assessment over Indian subcontinent, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2552, 2024.

The exchange of water and carbon between the land-surface and the atmosphere is regulated by meteorological conditions as well as plant physiological processes. Accurate modeling of the coupled system is not only crucial for understanding local feedback loops but also for global-scale carbon and water cycle interactions. Traditional mechanistic modeling approaches, e.g., the Earth system model ICON-ESM with the land component JSBACH4, have long been used to study the land-atmosphere coupling. However, these models are hampered by relatively rigid functional representations of terrestrial biospheric processes, e.g., semi-empirical parametrizations for stomatal conductance.

Here, we develop data-driven, flexible parametrizations controlling terrestrial carbon-water coupling based on eddy-covariance flux measurements using machine learning (ML). Specifically, we introduce a hybrid modeling approach (integration of data-driven and mechanistic modeling), that aims to replace specific empirical parametrizations of the coupled photosynthesis (GPP ) and transpiration (E_tr ) modules with ML models pre-trained on observations. First, as a proof-of-concept, we train parametrizations based on original JSBACH4 output to showcase that our approach succeeds in reconstructing the original parametrizations, namely latent dynamic features for stomatal (g_s) and aerodynamic (g_a) conductance, the carboxylation rate of RuBisCO (V_cmax), and the photosynthetic electron transport rate for RuBisCO regeneration (J_max). Second, we replace JSBACH4’s original parametrizations by dynamically calling the emulator parameterizations trained on the original JSBACH4 output using a Python-FORTRAN bridge. This allows us to assess the impact of data-driven parametrizations on the output in the coupled land-surface model. In the last step, we adopt the approach to infer these parametrizations from FLUXNET observations to construct an observation-informed model of water and carbon fluxes in JSBACH4.

Preliminary results in emulating JSBACH4 parametrizations reveal R² ranging between 0.91-0.99 and 0.92-0.97 for GPP, E_tr, and the sensible heat flux Q_H  at half-hourly scale for forest and grassland sites, respectively. JSBACH4 with the plugged-in ML-emulator parametrizations provides very similar, but not identical predictions as the original JSBACH4. For example, R² for E_tr (g_s) amounts to 0.91 (0.84) and 0.93 (0.86) at grassland and forest sites, respectively. These differences in the transpiration flux between original predictions and JSBACH4 with emulating parametrizations only result in minor changes in the system, e.g., the soil-water budget in the two models is almost the same (R² of ~0.99). Based on these promising results of our proof-of-concept, we are now preparing the hybrid JSBACH4 model with parametrizations trained on FLUXNET observations.

This modeling framework will then serve as the foundation for coupled land-atmosphere simulations using ICON-ESM, where key biospheric processes are represented by our hybrid observation-informed land-surface model.

How to cite: ElGhawi, R., Reimers, C., Schnur, R., Reichstein, M., Körner, M., Carvalhais, N., and Winkler, A. J.: Hybrid-Modeling of Land-Atmosphere Fluxes Using Integrated Machine Learning in the ICON-ESM Modeling Framework, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2819, 2024.

Understanding long-term total water storage (TWS) changes in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is essential for optimizing water resource management and mitigating hydrological extremes. While the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on (GRACE-FO) mission have provided valuable observations for investigating global or regional TWS changes, the approximately one-year data gap between these missions and their relatively short 20-year data record limits our ability to study the continuous and long-term variability of YRB's TWS. In this study, two deep learning models are employed to bridge the data gap and reconstruct the historical TWS changes within YRB, respectively. For the data gap filling task, a noise-augmented u-shaped network (NA-UNet) is presented to address UNet's overfitting issues associated with training on limited GRACE observations. Results show that NA-UNet can accurately bridge the data gap, exhibiting favourable and stable performance at both the basin and grid scales. Subsequently, we introduce another deep learning model named RecNet, specifically designed to reconstruct the climate-driven TWS changes in YRB from 1923 to 2022. RecNet is trained on precipitation, temperature, and GRACE observations using a weighted mean square error (WMSE) loss function. We show that RecNet can successfully reconstruct the historical TWS changes, achieving strong correlations with GRACE, water budget estimates, hydrological models, drought indices, and existing reconstruction datasets. We also observe superior performance in RecNet when trained with WMSE compared to its non-weighted counterpart. In addition, the reconstructed datasets reveal a recurring occurrence of diverse hydrological extremes over the past century within YRB, influenced by major climate patterns. Together, NA-UNet and RecNet provide valuable observations for studying long-term climate variability and projecting future hydrological extremes in YRB, which can inform effective water resource management and contribute to the development of adaptive strategies for climate change.

How to cite: Wang, J., Shen, Y., Awange, J., Yang, L., and Chen, Q.: Reconstructing total water storage changes in the Yangtze River Basin based on deep learning models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3272, 2024.

This study explores the transformative potential of supervised machine learning algorithms in improving rainfall prediction models for Indonesia. Leveraging the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset's high-resolution, global, and bias-corrected data, we compare various machine learning regression algorithms. Focusing on the EC Earth3 model, our approach involves an in-depth analysis of five weather variables closely tied to daily rainfall. We employed a diverse set of algorithms, including linear regression, K-nearest neighbor regression (KNN), random forest regression, decision tree regression, AdaBoost, extra tree regression, extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBoost), support vector regression (SVR), gradient boosting decision tree regression (GBDT), and multi-layer perceptron. Performance evaluation highlights the superior predictive capabilities of Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and KNN, achieving an impressive RMSE score of 0.04 and an accuracy score of 0.99. In contrast, XGBoost exhibits lower performance metrics, with an RMSE score of 5.1 and an accuracy score of 0.49, indicating poor rainfall prediction. This study contributes in advancing rainfall prediction models, hence emphasizing the improvement of methodological choices in harnessing machine learning for climate research.

How to cite: Prasetya, R., Harmoko Saputro, A., Sukma Permana, D., and Florida Riama, N.: Comparative Study of Supervised Learning Algorithms on Rainfall Prediction using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3307, 2024.

Underrepresentation of cloud formation is a known failing in current climate simulations. The coarse grid resolution required by the computational constraint of integrating over long time scales does not permit the inclusion of underlying cloud generating physical processes. This work employs a multi-output Gaussian Process (MOGP) trained on high resolution Unified Model (UM) simulation data to predict the variability of temperature and specific humidity fields within the climate model. A proof-of-concept study has been carried out where a trained MOGP model is coupled in-situ with a simplified Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) named SPEEDY. The temperature and specific humidity profiles of the SPEEDY model outputs are perturbed at each timestep according to the predicted high resolution informed variability. 10-year forecasts are generated for both default SPEEDY and ML-hybrid SPEEDY models and output fields are compared ensuring hybrid model predictions remain representative of Earth's atmosphere. Some changes in the precipitation, outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation patterns are observed indicating modelling improvements in the complex region surrounding India and the Indian sea.

How to cite: Briant, J., Giles, D., Morcrette, C., and Guillas, S.: A Hybrid Machine Learning Climate Simulation Using High Resolution Convection Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3499, 2024.

Understanding atmospheric variability is essential for adapting to future climate extremes. Key ways to do this are through analysing climate field reconstructions and reanalyses. However, producing such reconstructions can be limited by high production costs, unrealistic linearity assumptions, or uneven distribution of local climate records. 

Here, we present a machine learning-based non-linear climate variability reconstruction method using a Recurrent Neural Network that is able to learn from existing model outputs and reanalysis data. As a proof-of-concept, we reconstructed more than 400 years of global, monthly temperature anomalies based on sparse, realistically distributed pseudo-station data.

Our reconstructions show realistic temperature patterns and magnitude reproduction costing about 1 hour on a middle-class laptop. We highlight the method’s capability in terms of mean statistics compared to more established methods and find that it is also suited to reconstruct specific climate events. This approach can easily be adapted for a wide range of regions, periods and variables. As additional work-in-progress we show output of this approach for reconstructing European weather in 1807, including the extreme summer heatwave of that year.

How to cite: Wegmann, M. and Jaume-Santero, F.: From climate to weather reconstruction with inexpensive neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3614, 2024.

Shales are important rocks that store a significant amount of Organic Content. In this work, we present applications of realistic synthetic simulations using real-scaled geological sections. The case of the study is Santos Sedimentary Basin, a well-known and well-studied Geologic Basin. This synthetic data improves the performance of our IA for TOC estimators. Besides, it reduces costs and resources concerning data acquisition for IA simulations. The work consists of reconstructing a pseudo-well formed in a fracture zone modelled through an accurate 2D geological section. To simulate the effects of a fracture zone on geophysical logging data, we present the law of mixtures based on well-drilling concepts, whose objective is to impose geometric conditions on the set of subsurface rock packages. We generated four rock packs belonging to two mixed classes. Tests with noisy synthetic data produced by an accurate geological section were developed and classified using the proposed method (Carreira et al., 2024). Firstly, we go for a more controlled problem and simulate well-log data directly from an interpreted geologic cross-section. We then define two specific training data sets composed of density (RHOB), sonic (DT), spontaneous potential (SP) and gamma-ray (GR) logs,  and  Total Organic Carbon (TOC), spontaneous potential (SP), density (RHOB) and photoelectric effect (PE) all simulated through a Gaussian distribution function per lithology. Acquiring the sonic profile is essential not only for estimating the porosity of the rocks but also for in-depth simulations of the Total Organic Content (TOC) with the geological units cut by the synthetic wells. Since most wells Exploitation does not have this profile well and it is not economically viable to make a new acquisition, resorting to the nonlinear regression models to estimate the sonic profile showed that it is an important feature. We estimate the observed Total Organic Carbon (TOC) measurements using Passey and Wang's (2016) methodology to input data into the k-means classification model. The synthetic model proposed showed promissory results indicating that linear dependency may underscore k-means shale classification. 

How to cite: Carreira, V., Silva, M., Venancio, I., Belem, A., Viegas, I., Spigolon, A., Albuquerque, A. L., and Vitor, P.: Exploiting Pseudo Wells in a Synthetic Sedimentary Basin: a simulation in the Santos Off-Shore Basin in the Southeast Atlantic portion of Brazil, using synthetic TOC for k-means classification., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3640, 2024.

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather and climate events in a warming world requires massive
ensembles to capture long tails of multi-variate distributions. In combination, it is simply impossible to generate
massive ensembles, of say 10,000 members, using traditional numerical simulations of climate models at high
resolution. We describe how to bring the power of machine learning (ML) to replace traditional numerical
simulations for short week-long hindcasts of massive ensembles, where ML has proven to be successful in terms of
accuracy and fidelity, at five orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost than numerical methods. Because
the ensembles are reproducible to machine precision, ML also provides a data compression mechanism to
avoid storing the data produced from massive ensembles. The machine learning algorithm FourCastNet (FCN) is
based on Fourier Neural Operators and Transformers, proven to be efficient and powerful in modeling a wide
range of chaotic dynamical systems, including turbulent flows and atmospheric dynamics. FCN has already been
proven to be highly scalable on GPU-based HPC systems. 

We discuss our progress using statistics metrics for extremes adopted from operational NWP centers to show
that FCN is sufficiently accurate as an emulator of these phenomena. We also show how to construct huge
ensembles through a combination of perturbed-parameter techniques and a variant of bred vectors to generate a
large suite of initial conditions that maximize growth rates of ensemble spread. We demonstrate that these
ensembles exhibit a ratio of ensemble spread relative to RMSE that is nearly identical to one, a key metric of
successful near-term NWP systems. We conclude by applying FCN to severe heat waves in the recent climate
record.

How to cite: Collins, W., Pritchard, M., Brenowitz, N., Cohen, Y., Harrington, P., Kashinath, K., Mahesh, A., and Subramanian, S.: Huge Ensembles of Weather Extremes using the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4460, 2024.

As communities observe recurring regional weather patterns they will often ascribe colloquial names to them such as the Meiyu in East Asia or the Santa Ana winds of California. However, attaching quantitative characterizations to these same names often proves challenging. Classically heuristics have been developed for particular locations and climate phenomena, but their inherent subjectivity undermine the robustness of any subsequent quantitative analysis. To develop a neutral universal mesoscale metric we start by observing that the spatial distribution of rain in a given region is controlled by the interplay between the meteorological parameters (humidity, wind, pressure etc.) and the Earth’s topography. As a result, each recurring climactic phenomena exhibits a unique regional signature/distribution. Unlike at the synoptic scale, mesoscale climate patterns are largely stationary and an accumulation of two decades of high resolution satellite observations means that these patterns can now be reliably numerically extracted. The key additional observation is that at the mesoscale climate phenomena typically have either one or two non-co-occurring stationary states. This allows us to isolate patterns by a simple bifurcating of the subspace of the first two singular vectors. The end result behaves like a trivial Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) rotation that has a clear interpretation. It isolates the climate patterns as basis vectors and allows us to subsequently estimate the presence of the climate phenomena at arbitrary timescales. As a case study we use gridded precipitation data from NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (compiled in to the IMERG dataset) in several regions and timescales of particular interest

How to cite: Kontsevich, G. and Löwemark, L.: Using IMERG precipitation patterns to index climate at the mesoscale: A basis rotation method based on climate bistability - an update, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4507, 2024.

Land ecosystems play an important role in the carbon cycle, and hence the climate system. The engine of this cycle is Gross Primary Production (GPP), the assimilation of CO₂ via photosynthesis at the ecosystem scale. Photosynthesis is directly affected by rising CO₂ levels which, in turn, is expected to increase GPP and alter the dynamics of the carbon cycle. However, there is substantial uncertainty about the magnitude and geographical variability of the CO₂ fertilisation effect (CFE) on GPP.

We use a large collection of eddy covariance measurements (317 sites, 2226 site-years), paired with remotely sensed information of vegetation greenness to estimate the effect of rising CO₂ levels on GPP. We propose a hybrid modelling architecture, combining a physically-grounded process model based on eco-evolutionary optimality theory and a deep learning model. The intuition is that the process model represents the current understanding of the CFE, whereas the deep learning model does not implement explicit physical relations but has a higher capacity to learn effects of large and fast variations in the light, temperature, and moisture environment. The hybrid model is set up to learn a correction on the theoretically expected CFE. This makes it more effective in distilling the relatively small and gradual CFE. 

Our study investigates inherent limitations of different models when it comes to drawing conclusions about the CO₂ fertilisation effect. Often, these limitations are due to the presence of latent confounders that give rise to spurious correlations. A promising avenue to address them is therefore the use of causal inference techniques. We show that one way to investigate causality is to test whether the trained hybrid model and its estimate of the CFE is stable across different ecosystems, as expected for a causal physical relation. 

In summary, we study how causal inference, based on a combination of physics-informed and statistical modelling, can contribute to more reliable estimates of the CO₂ fertilisation effect, derived from ecosystem flux measurements.

How to cite: Biegel, S., Schindler, K., and Stocker, B.: Causal inference of the CO2 fertilisation effect from ecosystem flux measurements, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5033, 2024.

Historical records of climate fields are often sparse due to missing measurements, especially before the introduction of large-scale satellite missions. Several statistical and model-based methods have been introduced to fill gaps and reconstruct historical records. Here, we employ a recently introduced deep-learning approach based on Fourier convolutions, trained on numerical climate model output, to reconstruct historical climate fields. Using this approach we are able to realistically reconstruct large and irregular areas of missing data, as well as reconstruct known historical events such as strong El Niño and La Niña with very little given information. Our method outperforms the widely used statistical kriging method as well as other recent machine learning approaches. The model generalizes to higher resolutions than the ones it was trained on and can be used on a variety of climate fields. Moreover, it allows inpainting of masks never seen before during the model training.

How to cite: Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Rypdal, M., and Boers, N.: Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5103, 2024.

In recent years, deep learning models have rapidly emerged as a standalone alternative to physics-based numerical models for medium-range weather forecasting. Several independent research groups claim to have developed deep learning weather forecasts which outperform those from state-of-the-art physics-basics models, and operational implementation of data-driven forecasts appears to be drawing near. Yet, questions remain about the capabilities of deep learning models to provide robust forecasts of extreme weather.

Our current work aims to provide an overview of recent developments in the field of deep learning weather forecasting, and highlight the challenges that extreme weather events pose to leading deep learning models. Specifically, we problematise the fact that predictions generated by many deep learning models appear to be oversmooth, tending to underestimate the magnitude of wind and temperature extremes. To address these challenges, we argue for the need to tailor data-driven models to forecast extreme events, and develop models aiming to maximise the skill in the tails rather than in the mean of the distribution. Lastly, we propose a foundational workflow to develop robust models for extreme weather, which may function as a blueprint for future research on the topic.

How to cite: Olivetti, L. and Messori, G.: Advances and Prospects of Deep Learning for Medium-Range Extreme Weather Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5611, 2024.

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are synoptic-scale, rapidly rotating storm systems primarily driven by air-sea heat and moisture exchanges. They are among the deadliest geophysical hazards, causing substantial economic losses and several fatalities due to their associated strong winds, heavy precipitation, and storm surges, leading to coastal and inland flooding. Because of the severe consequences of their impacts, accurately predicting the occurrence, intensity, and trajectory of TCs is of crucial socio-economic importance. Over the past few decades, advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction models, coupled with the availability of high-quality observational data from past events, have increased the accuracy of short-term forecasts of TC tracks and intensities. However, this level of improvement has not yet been mirrored in long-term climate predictions and projections. This can be attributed to the substantial computational resources required for running high-resolution climate models with numerous ensemble members over long periods. Additionally, the physical processes underlying TC formation are still poorly understood. To overcome these challenges, the future occurrence of TCs can instead be studied using indices, known as Genesis Potential Indices (GPIs), which correlate the likelihood of Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) with large-scale environmental factors instrumental in their formation. GPIs are generally constructed as a product of atmospheric and oceanic variables accounting both for dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The variables are combined with coefficients and exponents numerically determined from past TC observations. Despite reproducing the spatial pattern and the seasonal cycle of observed TCs, GPIs fail to capture the inter-annual variability and exhibit inconsistent long-term trends.

In this work, we propose a new way to formulate these indices by using Machine Learning. Specifically, we forego all previously empirically determined coefficients and exponents and consider all the dynamic and thermodynamic factors incorporated into various indices documented in the literature. Then, using feature selection algorithms, we identify the most significant variables to explain TCG. Our analysis incorporates atmospheric variables as candidate factors to discern whether they inherently possess predictive signals for TCG. Furthermore, we also consider several climate indices that have been demonstrated to be related to TCG at the ocean basin scale. Recognizing that each factor and teleconnection has a distinct impact on TCG, we tailored our analysis to individual ocean basins. Consequently, our final model comprises a series of sub-models, each corresponding to a different tropical region. These sub-models estimate the distribution of TCG using distinct inputs, which are determined based on the outcomes of the basin-specific feature selection process. Preliminary findings indicate that the feature selection process yields distinct inputs for each ocean basin.

How to cite: Dainelli, F., Ascenso, G., Scoccimarro, E., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Rethinking Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Indices via Feature Selection, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5616, 2024.

In the context of global warming, changes in extreme weather events may pose a larger threat to society. Therefore, it is particularly important to improve our climatological understanding of high impact precipitation types (PTs), and how their frequency may change under warming. In this study, we use MIDAS (the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System) observational data to provide our best estimate of historical PTs (e.g. liquid rain, freezing rain, snow etc.) over China. We use machine learning (ML) techniques and meteorological analysis methods applied to data from the ERA5 historical climate reanalysis data to find the best variables for diagnosing PTs, and formed training and testing sets, which were input into ML training. We evaluate the diagnostic ability of the Random Forest Classifier (RFC) for different PTs. The results show that using meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity, and winds to determine different PTs, ERA5 grid data and MIDAS station data have good matching ability. Comparing the feature selection results with Kernel Density Estimation, it was found that the two methods have consistent results in evaluating the ability of variables to distinguish different PTs. RFC shows strong robustness in predicting different PTs by learning the differences in meteorological variables between 1990 and 2014. It can capture the frequency and spatial distribution of different PTs well, but this capture ability is sensitive to the training methods of the algorithm. In addition, the algorithm finds it difficult to identify events such as hail that are very low frequency in observations. According to the results of testing for different regions and seasons in China, models trained using seasonal data samples have relatively good performance, especially in winter. These results show the potential for combining a RFC with state-of-the-art climate models to effectively project the possible response of different PT frequencies to climate warming in the future. However, the training method of ML algorithm should be selected with caution.

How to cite: Wang, Y.: Identifying precipitation types over China using a machine learning algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6282, 2024.

Heatwaves over western Europe are increasing faster than elsewhere, which recent studies have attributed at least partly to changes in atmospheric dynamics. To increase our understanding of the dynamical drivers of western European heatwaves, we developed a heatwave classification method taking into account the spatio-temporal atmospheric dynamics. Our deep learning approach consists of several steps: 1) heatwave detection using the Generalized Density-based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (GDBSCAN) algorithm; 2) dimensionality reduction of the spatio-temporal heatwave samples using a 3D Variational Autoencoder (VAE); and 3) a clustering of heatwaves using K-means, a Gaussian Mixture Model, and opt-SNE. We show that a VAE can extract meaningful features from high-dimensional climate data. Furthermore, we find four physically distinct clusters of heatwaves that are interpretable with known circulation patterns, i.e. UK High, Scandinavian High, Atlantic High, and Atlantic Low. Our results indicate that the heatwave phase space, as found with opt-SNE, is continuous with soft boundaries between these circulation regimes, indicating that heatwaves are best categorized in a probabilistic way.

How to cite: Happe, T., Wijnands, J., Fernández-Torres, M. Á., Scussolini, P., Muntjewerf, L., and Coumou, D.: Detecting spatio-temporal dynamics of western European heatwaves using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6655, 2024.

The tropical Pacific experienced triple La Nina conditions during 2020-22, and the future evolution of the climate condition in the region has received extensive attention. Recent observations and studies indicate that an El Nino condition is developing with its peak stage in late 2023, but large uncertainties still exist. Here, a transformer-based deep learning model is adopted to make predictions of the 2023-24 climate condition in the tropical Pacific. This purely data driven model is configured in such a way that upper-ocean temperature at seven depths and zonal and meridional wind stress fields are used as input predictors and output predictands, representing ocean-atmosphere interactions that participate in the form of the Bjerknes feedback and providing physical basis for predictability. In the same way as dynamical models, the prediction procedure is executed in a rolling manner; multi-month 3D temperature fields as well as surface winds are simultaneously preconditioned as input predictors in the prediction. This transformer model has been demonstrated to outperform other state-of-the-art dynamical models in retrospective prediction cases. Real-time predictions indicate that El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific peak in late 2023. The underlying processes are further analyzed by conducting sensitivity experiments using this transformer model, in which initial fields of surface winds and upper-ocean temperature fields can be purposely adjusted to illustrate the changes to prediction skills. A comparison with other dynamical coupled model is also made.

How to cite: Zhang, R.: A purely data-driven transformer model for real-time predictions of the 2023-24 climate condition in the tropical Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6924, 2024.

Predicting the weather in urban environments is a complex task because of the highly heterogeneous nature of the urban structure. However, there are many issues inherent in urban meteorology, such as thermal comfort and building’s energy consumption. Those stakes are linked to highly heterogeneous meteorological variables within the city such as temperature, humidity, wind, net radiative flux and city characteristics such as building uses and characteristics. State-of-the-art meteorological models with hectometric resolution, such as the Meso-NH (Lac et al. 2018) research model, can provide accurate forecasts of urban meteorology. However, they require too much computing power to be deployed operationally. Statistical downscaling techniques are machine learning methods enabling the estimation of a fine resolution field based on one or several lower resolution fields. ARPEGE is the operational planetary model of Météo-France and operates at a resolution of 5km on France. Using Meso-NH simulations covering Paris and the Île-de-France region, a statistical downscaling has been carried out to obtain a temperature field at 300m resolution using simulation outputs from the ARPEGE planetary model at 5km. The deduced temperature reproduces the urban heat island and the temperature heterogeneity simulated in Meso-NH. The estimated temperature field is able to represent the links between temperature and topography as well as the sharp gradients between the city and the urban parks.

Lac et al. 2018 : https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018

How to cite: Garcia Cristobal, J., Wurtz, J., and Masson, V.: Statistical Downscaling for urban meteorology at hectometric scale, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8010, 2024.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the costliest and deadliest natural disasters worldwide. The destructive potential of a TC is usually modelled as a power of its maximum sustained wind speed, making the estimation of the intensity of TCs (TCIE) an active area of research. Indeed, TCIE has improved steadily in recent years, especially as researchers moved from subjective methods based on hand-crafted features to methods based on deep learning, which are now solidly established as the state of the art.

However, the datasets used for TCIE, which are typically collections of satellite images of TCs, often have two major issues: they are relatively small (usually ≤ 40,000 samples), and they are highly imbalanced, with orders of magnitude more samples for weak TCs than for intense ones. Together, these issues make it hard for deep learning models to estimate the intensity of the strongest TCs. To mitigate these issues, researchers often use a family of Computer Vision techniques known as “data augmentation”—transformations (e.g., rotations) applied to the images in the dataset that create similar, synthetic samples. The way these techniques have been used in TCIE studies has been largely unexamined and potentially problematic. For instance, some authors flip images horizontally to generate new samples, while others avoid doing so because it would cause images from the Northern Hemisphere to look like images from the Southern Hemisphere, which they argue would confuse the model. The effectiveness or potentially detrimental effects of this and other data augmentation techniques for TCIE have never been examined, as authors typically borrow their data augmentation strategies from established fields of Computer Vision. However, data augmentation techniques are highly sensitive to the task for which they are used and should be optimized accordingly. Furthermore, it remains unclear how to properly use data augmentation for TCIE to alleviate the imbalance of the datasets.

In our work, we explore how best to perform data augmentation for TCIE using an off-the-shelf deep learning model, focusing on two objectives:

• Determining how much augmentation is needed and how to distribute it across the various classes of TC intensity. To do so, we use a modified Gini coefficient to guide the amount of augmentation to be done. Specifically, we aim to augment the dataset more for more intense (and therefore less represented) TCs. Our goal is to obtain a dataset that, when binned according to the Saffir Simpson scale, is as close to a normal distribution as possible (i.e., all classes of intensity are equally represented). 
• Evaluating which augmentation techniques are best for deep learning-based TCIE. To achieve this, we use a simple feature selection algorithm called backwards elimination, which leads us to find an optimal set of data augmentations to be used. Furthermore, we explore the optimal parameter space for each augmentation technique (e.g., by what angles images should be rotated).

Overall, our work provides the first in-depth analysis of the effects of data augmentation for deep learning-based TCIE, establishing a framework to use these techniques in a way that directly addresses highly imbalanced datasets.

How to cite: Ascenso, G., Palcic, G., Scoccimarro, E., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: A Systematic Framework for Data Augmentation for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8955, 2024.

To account for uncertainties in future projections associated with the level of greenhouse gas emissions, most climate models are run using different forcing scenarios, like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Although it is possible to compare real-world greenhouse gas concentrations with these hypothetical scenarios, it is less clear how to determine whether observed patterns of weather and climate anomalies align with individual scenarios, especially at the interannual timescale. As a result, this study designs a data-driven approach utilizing artificial neural networks (ANNs) that learn to classify global maps of annual-mean temperature or precipitation with a matching emission scenario using a high-resolution, single model initial-condition large ensemble. Here we construct our ANN framework to consider whether a climate map is from SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, a historical forcing scenario, or a natural forcing scenario using the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. A local attribution technique from explainable AI is then applied to identify the most relevant temperature and precipitation patterns used for each ANN prediction. The explainability results reveal that some of the most important geographic regions for distinguishing each climate scenario include anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic, Central Africa, and East Asia. Lastly, we evaluate data from two overshoot simulations that begin in either 2031 or 2040, which are a set of future simulations that were excluded from the ANN training process. For the rapid mitigation experiment that starts a decade earlier, we find that the ANN links its climate maps to the lowest emission scenario by the end of the 21^st century (SSP1-1.9) in comparison to the more moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5) that is selected for the later mitigation experiment. Overall, this framework suggests that explainable machine learning could provide one possible strategy for assessing observations with future climate change pathways.

How to cite: Labe, Z., Delworth, T., Johnson, N., and Cooke, W.: Explainable AI for distinguishing future climate change scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9110, 2024.

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather forecasts play an important role as a decision making tool in several sectors of modern society. However, the time scale on which these forecasts are skillful is strongly dependent on atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. While deep learning-based weather prediction models have shown impressive results in the short- to medium range, S2S forecasts from such models are currently limited, partly due to fewer available training data and larger fluctuations in predictability. In order to develop more reliable S2S predictions we leverage Masked Autoencoders, a state-of-the-art deep learning framework, to extract large-scale representations of tropical precipitation and sea-surface temperature data.  We show that the learned representations are highly predictive for the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and can thus serve as a foundation for identifying windows of opportunity and generating skillful S2S forecasts.

How to cite: Thümmel, J., Schlör, J., Strnad, F., and Goswami, B.: Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts using Masked Autoencoders, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10129, 2024.

Maps of land surface temperature of the area of Naples (Southern Italy) show large spatial variation of temperature anomalies. In particular, the metropolitan area of Naples is generally characterized by higher temperatures than the rest of the area considered.

Since heat waves have become more frequent in the last decade, the creation of heat maps helps to understand the location where a town’s population may be more affected by them. Ideally, this kind of maps would provide residents with accurate information about the health problems they may face.

Large temperature anomalies variations are caused by multiple or competing factors, leaving uncertainty in identifying vulnerable areas at this time.

To overcome this limitation and identify areas more vulnerable to the effects of heat waves, not only in the city of Naples but also in its suburbs, we combine the use of Landsat data with unsupervised machine learning algorithms to provide detailed heat wave vulnerability maps. In particular, we develop a procedure based on a combined use of hierarchical and partitional cluster analyses that allows us to better identify areas characterized by temperature anomalies that are more similar to each other than to any other all over the year. This has important implications allowing discrimination between locations that potentially would be impacted higher or lower energy consumption.

How to cite: Flocco, D., Piegari, E., and Scafetta, N.: Heat wave vulnerability maps of Naples (Italy) from Landsat images and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10156, 2024.

High resolution projections are useful for planning climate change adaptation [1] but are expensive to produce using physical simulations. We make use of a state-of-the-art generative machine learning (ML) method, a diffusion model [2], to predict variables from a km-scale model over England and Wales. This is trained to emulate daily mean output from the Met Office 2.2km UK convection-permitting model (CPM) [3], averaged to 8.8km scale for initial testing, given coarse-scale (60km) weather states from the Met Office HadGEM3 general circulation model. This achieves downscaling at much lower computational cost than is required to run the CPM and when trained to predict precipitation the emulator produces samples with realistic spatial structure [4, 5]. We show the emulator learns to represent climate change over the 21^st century. We present some diagnostics indicating that there is skill for extreme events with ~100 year return periods, as is necessary to inform decision-making. This is made possible by training the model on ~500 years of CPM data (48 years from each of 12 ensemble members). We also show the method can be useful in scenarios with limited high-resolution data. The method is stochastic and we find that it produces a well-calibrated spread of high resolution precipitation samples for given large-scale conditions, which is highly important for correctly representing extreme events.

Furthermore, we are extending this method to generate coherent multivariate samples including other impact-relevant variables (e.g. 2m temperature, 2m humidity and 10m wind). We will show the model’s performance at producing samples with coherent structure across all the different variables and its ability to represent extremes in multivariate climate impact indices.

References

[1] Kendon, E. J. et al. (2021). Update to the UKCP Local (2.2km) projections. Science report, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. [Online]. Available: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/ukcp18_local_update_report_2021.pdf

[2] Song, Y. et al. (2021). Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations. ICLR.

[3] Kendon EJ, E Fischer, CJ Short (2023) Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes, Nature Comms, doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9

[4] Addison, Henry, Elizabeth Kendon, Suman Ravuri, Laurence Aitchison, and Peter AG Watson. (2022). Machine learning emulation of a local-scale UK climate model. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.16116.

[5] Addison, H., Kendon, E., Ravuri, S., Aitchison, L., and Watson, P. (2023). Downscaling with a machine learning-based emulator of a local-scale UK climate model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14253

How to cite: Addison, H., Kendon, E., Ravuri, S., Aitchison, L., and Watson, P.: Machine learning-based emulation of a km-scale UK climate model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10262, 2024.

Accurately assessing precipitation impacts due to anthropogenic global warming relies on numerical Earth system model (ESM) simulations. However, the discretized formulation of ESMs, where unresolved small-scale processes are included as semi-empirical parameterizations, can introduce systematic errors in the simulations. These can, for example, lead to an underestimation of spatial intermittency and extreme events.
 Generative deep learning has recently been shown to skillfully bias-correct and downscale precipitation fields from numerical simulations [1,2]. Using spatial context, these methods can jointly correct spatial patterns and summary statistics, outperforming established statistical approaches.
However, these approaches require separate training for each Earth system model individually, making corrections of large ESM ensembles computationally costly. Moreover, they only allow for limited control over the spatial scale at which biases are corrected and may suffer from training instabilities.
Here, we follow a novel diffusion-based generative approach [3, 4] by training an unconditional foundation model on the high-resolution target ERA5 dataset only. Using fully coupled ESM simulations of precipitation, we investigate the controllability of the generative process during inference to preserve spatial patterns of a given ESM field on different spatial scales.

[1] Hess, P., Drüke, M., Petri, S., Strnad, F. M., & Boers, N. (2022). Physically constrained generative adversarial networks for improving precipitation fields from Earth system models. Nature Machine Intelligence, 4(10), 828-839.

[2] Harris, L., McRae, A. T., Chantry, M., Dueben, P. D., & Palmer, T. N. (2022).A generative deep learning approach to stochastic downscaling of precipitation forecasts. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(10), e2022MS003120.

[3] Meng, C., He, Y., Song, Y., Song, J., Wu, J., Zhu, J. Y., & Ermon, S. (2021).  Sdedit: Guided image synthesis and editing with stochastic differential equations. arXiv preprint arXiv:2108.01073.

[4] Bischoff, T., & Deck, K. (2023). Unpaired Downscaling of Fluid Flows with Diffusion Bridges. arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.01822.

How to cite: Hess, P., Gelbrecht, M., Aich, M., Pan, B., Bathiany, S., and Boers, N.: Downscaling precipitation simulations from Earth system models with generative deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10298, 2024.

In order to improve climate projections, machine learning (ML)-based parameterizations have been developed for Earth System Models (ESMs) with the goal to better represent subgrid-scale processes or to accelerate computations by emulating existent parameterizations. These data-driven models have shown success in approximating subgrid-scale processes based on high-resolution storm-resolving simulations. However, most studies have used a particular machine learning method such as simple Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs) or Random Forest (RFs) to parameterize the subgrid tendencies or fluxes originating from the compound effect of various small-scale processes (e.g., turbulence, radiation, convection, gravity waves). Here, we use a filtering technique to explicitly separate convection from these processes in data produced by the Icosahedral Non-hydrostatic modelling framework (ICON) in a realistic setting. We use a method improved by incorporating density fluctuations for computing the subgrid fluxes and compare a variety of different machine learning algorithms on their ability to predict the subgrid fluxes. We further examine the predictions of the best performing non-deep learning model (Gradient Boosted Tree regression) and the U-Net. We discover that the U-Net can learn non-causal relations between convective precipitation and convective subgrid fluxes and develop an ablated model excluding precipitating tracer species. We connect the learned relations of the U-Net to physical processes in contrast to non-deep learning-based algorithms. Our results suggest that architectures such as a U-Net are particularly well suited to parameterize multiscale problems like convection, paying attention to the plausibility of the learned relations, thus providing a significant advance upon existing ML subgrid representation in ESMs.

How to cite: Heuer, H., Schwabe, M., Gentine, P., Giorgetta, M. A., and Eyring, V.: Interpretable multiscale Machine Learning-Based Parameterizations of Convection for ICON, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10325, 2024.

Recent advances in climate model emulation have been shown to accurately represent atmospheric variables from large general circulation models, but little investigation has been done into emulating land-related variables. The land-carbon sink absorbs around a third of the fossil fuel anthropogenic emissions every year, yet there is significant uncertainty around this prediction. We aim to reduce this uncertainty by first investigating the predictability of several land-related variables that drive land-atmospheric carbon exchange. We use data from the IPSL-CM6A-LR submission to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP). The DCPP is initialized from observed data and explores decadal trends in relationships between various climatic variables. The land-component of the IPSL-CM6A-LR, ORCHIDEE, represents various land-carbon interactions and we target these processes for emulation. As a first step, we attempt to predict the target land variables from ORCHIDEE using a vision transformer. We then investigate the impacts of different feature selection on the target variables - by including atmospheric and oceanic variables, how does this improve the short and medium term predictions of land-related processes? In a second step, we apply generative modeling (with diffusion models) to emulate land processes. The diffusion model can be used to generate several unseen scenarios based on the DCPP and provides a tool to investigate a wider range of climatic scenarios that would be otherwise computationally expensive. 

How to cite: Clyne, G.: Emulating Land-Processes in Climate Models Using Generative Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10328, 2024.

How to cite: Aich, M., Pan, B., Hess, P., Bathiany, S., Huang, Y., and Boers, N.: Down-scaling and bias correction of precipitation with generative machine learning models , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10692, 2024.

How to cite: Lütjens, B., Selin, N., Souza, A., Geogdzhayev, G., Newman, D., Giani, P., Tebaldi, C., Watson-Parris, D., and Ferrari, R.: Is linear regression all you need? Clarifying use-cases for deep learning in climate emulation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10759, 2024.

Glacier ice thickness is a fundamental variable required for modelling flow and mass balance. However, direct measurements of ice thickness are scarce. Physics-based and data-driven approaches aim to reconstruct glacier ice thicknesses from the limited in-situ data. Farinotti et al. compared 17 models and found that their ice thickness estimates differ considerably on test glaciers.[1] Following these results, Farinotti et al. created an ensemble of models to develop the so-called consensus estimate of the ice thickness for the world’s glaciers in 2019.[2] Later, Millan et al. derived ice thickness estimates for the world’s glaciers using ice motion as the primary constraint. However, these results differ considerably from existing estimates and the 2019 consensus estimates.[3] It is evident, therefore, that significant uncertainty remains in ice thickness estimates.

Deep learning approaches are flexible and adapt well to complex structures and non-linear behaviour. However, they do not guarantee physical correctness of the predicted quantities. Therefore, we employ a physics-informed neural network (PINN), which integrates physical laws into their training process and is not purely data-driven. We include, for example, the conservation of mass in the loss function and estimate the depth-averaged flow velocity. Teisberg et al. also employed a mass-conserving PINN to interpolate the ice thickness of the well-studied Byrd glacier in Antarctica.[4] In this work, we extend the methodology by integrating the ratio between slope and surface flow velocities in estimating the depth-averaged flow velocity and mapping the coordinate variables to higher dimensional Fourier Features.[5] This allows to encompass glaciers in western Svalbard, addressing challenges posed by basal sliding, surface melting, and complex glacier geometries. Using surface velocity data from Millan et al. and topographical data from Copernicus DEM GLO-90[6] gathered through OGGM[7],  the model predicts ice thickness on glaciers with limited measurements. We are extending it to perform as a predictor of thickness for glaciers with no observations. Here, we present the machine learning pipeline, including the physical constraints employed and preliminary results for glaciers in western Svalbard.

How to cite: Steidl, V., Bamber, J., and Zhu, X. X.: Physics-aware Machine Learning to Estimate Ice Thickness of Glaciers in West Svalbard, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10876, 2024.

Large deep neural network emulators are poised to revolutionize numerical weather prediction (NWP). Recent models like GraphCast or NeuralGCM can now compete and sometimes outperform traditional NWP systems, all at much lower computational cost. Yet to be explored is the applicability of large deep neural network emulators to other dense prediction tasks such as the modeling of 3D atmospheric composition. For instance the inverse modeling of carbon fluxes essential for estimating carbon budgets relies on fast CO₂ transport models.

Here, we present a novel approach to atmospheric transport modeling of CO₂ and other inert trace gases. Existing Eulerian transport modeling approaches rely on numerical solvers applied to the continuity equation, which are expensive: short time steps are required for numerical stability at the poles, and the loading of driving meteorological fields is IO-intensive. We learn high-fidelity transport in latent space by training graph neural networks, analogous to approaches used in weather forecasting, including an approach that conserves the CO₂ mass. For this, we prepare the CarbonBench dataset, a deep learning ready dataset based on Jena Carboscope CO₂ inversion data and NCEP NCAR meteorological reanalysis data together with ObsPack station observations for model evaluation.

Qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our approach over a baseline U-Net for short-term (<40 days) atmospheric transport modeling of carbon dioxide. While the original GraphCast architecture achieves a similar speed to the TM3 transport model used to generate the training data, we show how various architectural changes introduced by us contribute to a reduced IO load (>4x) of our model, thereby speeding up forward runs. This is especially useful when applied multiple times with the same driving wind fields, e.g. in an inverse modeling framework. Thus, we pave the way towards integrating not only atmospheric observations (as is done in current CO₂ inversions), but also ecosystem surface fluxes (not yet done) into carbon cycle inversions. The latter requires backpropagating through a transport operator to optimize a flux model with many more parameters (e.g. a deep neural network) than those currently used in CO₂ inversions – which becomes feasible if the transport operator is fast enough. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first emulator of global Eulerian atmospheric transport, thereby providing an initial step towards next-gen inverse modeling of the carbon cycle with deep learning.

How to cite: Benson, V., Bastos, A., Reimers, C., Winkler, A. J., Yang, F., and Reichstein, M.: Graph Neural Networks for Atmospheric Transport Modeling of CO2 , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10922, 2024.

Analyzing climate scenarios is crucial for quantifying uncertainties, identifying trends, and validating models. Objective statistical methods provide decision support for policymakers, optimize resource allocation, and enhance our understanding of complex climate dynamics. These tools offer a systematic and quantitative framework for effective decision-making and policy formulation amid climate change, including accurate projections of extreme events—a fundamental requirement for Earth system modeling and actionable future predictions. 

This study applies dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) to assess temperature and precipitation variability in climate model projections under various future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We leverage global greenhouse gas emissions and local aerosol emissions as control parameters to unveil nuanced insights into climate dynamics.Our approach involves fitting distinct DMDc models over a high-ambition/low-forcing scenario (SSP126), a medium-forcing scenario (SSP245) and a high-forcing scenario (SSP585). By scrutinizing the eigenvalues and dynamic modes of each DMDc model, we uncover crucial patterns and trends that extend beyond traditional climate analysis methods. Preliminary findings reveal that temporal modes effectively highlight variations in global warming trends under different emissions scenarios. Moreover, the spatial modes generated by DMDc offer a refined understanding of temperature disparities across latitudes, effectively capturing large-scale oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. 

The proposed data-driven analytical framework not only enriches our comprehension of climate dynamics but also enhances our ability to anticipate and adapt to the multifaceted impacts of climate change. Integrating DMDc into climate scenario analysis may help formulate more effective strategies for mitigation and adaptation.

References

Allen, Myles R., et al. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne." Nature 458.7242 (2009): 1163-1166.

Zelinka, Mark D., et al. "Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models." Geophysical Research Letters 47.1 (2020): e2019GL085782.

Proctor, Joshua L., Steven L. Brunton, and J. Nathan Kutz. "Dynamic mode decomposition with control." SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems 15.1 (2016): 142-161.

How to cite: Mankovich, N., Bouabid, S., and Camps-Valls, G.: Analyzing Climate Scenarios Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition With Control, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11831, 2024.

This study focuses on the application of machine learning techniques to better characterize predictability of the spatiotemporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) on the basin scale. Both, sub-seasonal variability including extreme events (cf. marine heatwaves) and interannual variability are considered. 

We rely on dimensionality reduction techniques---linear principal component analysis (PCA)  and nonlinear autoencoders and their variants---to then perform the actual prediction tasks in the corresponding latent space using disparate methodologies ranging from linear inverse modeling (LIM) to reservoir computing (RC), and attention-based transformers. 

After comparing performance, we examine various issues including the role of generalized synchronization in RC and implicit memory of RC vs. explicit long-term memory of transformers with the broad aim of shedding light on the effectiveness of these techniques in the context of data-driven climate prediction.

How to cite: Nadiga, B. and Srinivasan, K.: Climate Prediction in Reduced Dimensions: A Comparative Analysis of Linear Inverse Modeling, Reservoir Computing and Attention-based Transformers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12141, 2024.

Combining process-based models in Earth system science with data-driven machine learning methods holds tremendous promise. Can we harness the best of both approaches? In our study, we integrate components of atmospheric models into artificial neural networks (ANN). The resulting hybrid atmospheric model can learn atmospheric dynamics from short trajectories while ensuring robust generalization and stability. We achieve this using the neural differential equations framework, combining ANNs with a differentiable, GPU-enabled version of the well-studied Marshall Molteni Quasigeostrophic Model (QG3). Similar to the approach of many atmospheric models, part of the model is computed in the spherical harmonics domain, and other parts in the grid domain. In our model, ANNs are used as parametrizations in both domains, and form together with the components of the QG3 model the right-hand side of our hybrid model. We showcase the capabilities of our model by demonstrating how it generalizes from the QG3 model to the significantly more complex primitive equation model of SpeedyWeather.jl. 

How to cite: Gelbrecht, M. and Boers, N.: Hybrid neural differential equation models for atmospheric dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12495, 2024.

The Analogue Method (AM) is a classical statistical downscaling technique applied to field reconstruction. It is widely used for prediction and attribution tasks. The method is based on the principle that two similar atmospheric states cause similar local effects. The core of the AM method is a K-nearest neighbor methodology. Thus, two different states have similarities according to the analogy criterion. The method has remained unchanged since its definition, although some attempts have been made to improve its performance. Machine learning (ML) techniques have recently been used to improve AM performance, however, it remains very similar. An ML-based hybrid approach for heatwave (HW) analysis based on the AM is presented here. It is based on a two-step procedure: in the first step, a non-supervised task is developed, where an autoencoder (AE) model is trained to reconstruct the predictor variable, i.e. the pressure field. Second, an HW event is selected, and then the AM method is applied to the latent space of the trained AE. Thus, the analogy between the fields is searched in the encoded data of the input variable, instead of on the original field. Experiments show that the meaningful features extracted by the AE lead to a better reconstruction of the target field when pressure variables are used as input. In addition, the analysis of the latent space allows for interpreting the results, since HW occurrence can be easily distinguished. Further research can be done on including multiple input variables. 

How to cite: Pérez-Aracil, J., Marina, C. M., Gutiérrez, P., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Giuliani, M., McAdam, R., Scoccimarro, E., Zorita, E., Castelletti, A., and Salcedo-Sanz, S.: Autoencoder-based model for improving  reconstruction of heat waves using the analogue method, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12600, 2024.

We explore the task of learning the dynamics of a system from observed data without prior knowledge of the laws governing the system. Our extensive simulation study focuses on ordinary differential equation (ODE) problems that are specifically designed to reflect key aspects of various machine learning tasks for dynamical systems - namely, chaos, complexity, measurement uncertainty, and variability in measurement intervals. The study evaluates a variety of methods, including neural ODEs, transformers, Gaussian processes, echo state networks, and spline-based estimators. Our results show that the relative performance of the methods tested varies widely depending on the specific task, highlighting that no single method is universally superior. Although our research is predominantly in low-dimensional settings, in contrast to the high-dimensional nature of many climate science challenges, it provides insightful comparisons and understanding of how different approaches perform in learning the dynamics of complex systems.

How to cite: Schötz, C., White, A., and Boers, N.: Comparing Machine Learning Methods for Dynamical Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12826, 2024.

Enhancing flood prediction is imperative given the profound socio-economic impacts of flooding and the projected increase in its frequency due to the impacts of climate change. In this context, artificial intelligence (AI) models have emerged as valuable tools, offering enhanced accuracy and cost-effective solutions to simulate physical flood processes. This study addresses the development of an early warning system for groundwater flooding in the lowland karst area of south Galway, Ireland, employing neural network models with Bayesian regularization and scaled conjugate gradient training algorithms. The lowland karst area is characterised by several groundwater fed, intermittent lakes, known as turloughs that fill when the underlying karst system becomes surcharged during periods of high rainfall. The training datasets incorporate several years of field data from the study area and outputs from a highly calibrated semi-distributed hydraulic/hydrological model of the karst network. Inputs for training the models include flood volume data from the past 5 days, rainfall data, and tidal amplitude data over the preceding 4 days. Both daily and hourly models were developed to facilitate real-time flood predictions. Results indicate strong performance by both Bayesian and Scaled Conjugate Gradient models in real-time flood forecasting. The Bayesian model shows forecasting capabilities extending up to 45 days into the future, with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 1.00 up to 7 days ahead and 0.95 for predictions up to 45 days ahead. The Scaled Conjugate Gradient model offers the best performance up to 60 days into the future with NSE of 0.98 up to 20 days ahead and 0.95 for predictions up to 60 days ahead, coupled with the advantage of significantly reduced training time compared to the Bayesian model. Additionally, both models exhibit a Co-efficient of Correlation (r) value of 0.98 up to 60 days ahead. Evaluation measures such as Kling Gupta Efficiency reveal high performance, with values of 0.96 up to 15 days ahead for both Bayesian and Scaled Conjugate Gradient models, and 0.90 up to 45 days ahead in the future. The integration of diverse data sources and consideration of both daily and hourly models enhance the resilience and reliability of such an early warning system. In particular, the Scaled Conjugate Gradient model emerges as a versatile tool. It balances predictive accuracy with reduced computational demands, thereby offering practical insights for real-time flood prediction, and aiding in proactive flood management and response efforts.

How to cite: Tabbussum, R., Basu, B., and Gill, L.: Neural Network Driven Early Warning System for Groundwater Flooding: A Comprehensive Approach in Lowland Karst Areas, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13138, 2024.

Inverse modelling systems relying on Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LPDMs) are a popular way to quantify greenhouse gas emissions using atmospheric observations, providing independent evaluation of countries' self-reported emissions. For each GHG measurement, the LPDM performs backward-running simulations of particle transport in the atmosphere, calculating source-receptor relationships (“footprints”). These reflect the upwind areas where emissions would contribute to the measurement. However, the increased volume of satellite measurements from high-resolution instruments like TROPOMI cause computational bottlenecks, limiting the amount of data that can be processed for inference. Previous approaches to speed up footprint generation revolve around interpolation, therefore still requiring expensive new runs. In this work, we present the first machine learning-driven LPDM emulator that once trained, can approximate satellite footprints using only meteorology and topography. The emulator uses Graph Neural Networks in an Encode-Process-Decode structure, similar to Google’s Graphcast [1], representing latitude-longitude coordinates as nodes in a graph. We apply the model for GOSAT measurements over Brazil to emulate footprints produced by the UK Met Office’s NAME LPDM, training on data for 2014 and 2015 on a domain of size approximately 1600x1200km at a resolution of 0.352x0.234 degrees. Once trained, the emulator can produce footprints for a domain of up to approximately 6500x5000km, leveraging the flexibility of GNNs. We evaluate the emulator for footprints produced across 2016 on the 6500x5000km domain size, achieving intersection-over-union scores of over 40% and normalised mean absolute errors of under 30% for simulated CH4 concentrations. As well as demonstrating the emulator as a standalone AI application, we show how to integrate it with the full GHG emissions pipeline to quantify Brazil’s emissions. This method demonstrates the potential of GNNs for atmospheric dispersion applications and paves the way for large-scale near-real time emissions emulation.

 [1] Remi Lam et al.,Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting. Science 382,1416-1421 (2023). DOI:10.1126/science.adi2336

How to cite: Fillola, E., Santos-Rodriguez, R., and Rigby, M.: A Graph Neural Network emulator for greenhouse gas emissions inference, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15144, 2024.

Decision making and efficient early warning systems for extreme weather rely on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts. However, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere impedes predictions by dynamical forecast systems on the S2S time scale. Improved predictability may arise due to remote drivers and corresponding teleconnections in so-called windows of opportunities, but using knowledge of such drivers to boost S2S forecast skill is challenging. Here, we present a spatio-temporal deep neural network (DNN), predicting a time series of weekly North Atlantic European (NAE) weather regimes on lead-times of one to six weeks during boreal winter. The spatio-temporal architecture combines a convolutional Long-short-term-memory (convLSTM) encoder with an Long-short-term-memory (LSTM) decoder and was built to consider both short and medium-range variability as information. As predictors it uses 2D (image) time series input data of expected drivers of European winter weather, including the stratospheric polar vortex  and tropical sea surface temperatures, alongside the 1D time series of NAE regimes. Our results indicate that additional information provided in the image time series yield a skill score improvement for longer lead times. In addition, by analysing periods of enhanced or decreased predictability of the DNN, we can infer further information regarding prevalent teleconnections.

How to cite: Bommer, P. L., Kretschmer, M., Boehnke, P., and Hoehne née Vidovic, M. M.-C.: Using spatio-temporal neural networks to investigating teleconnections and enhance S2S forecasts of european extreme weather , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15174, 2024.

Deep learning-based weather prediction models have gained popularity in recent years and are effective in forecasting weather over short to medium time scales with models such as FourCastNet being competitive with Numerical Weather Prediction models. 
However, on longer timescales, the complexity and interplay of different weather and climate variables leads to increasingly inaccurate predictions. 

Large-scale climate phenomena, such as the active periods of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are known to provide higher predictability for longer forecast times.
These so called Windows of Opportunity thus hold promise as strategic tools for enhancing S2S forecasts.

In this work, we evaluate the capability of FourCastNet to represent and utilize the presence of (active) MJO phases.
First, we analyze the correlation between the feature space of FourCastNet and different MJO indices.
We further conduct a comparative analysis of prediction accuracy within the South East Asia region during active and inactive MJO phases.

How to cite: Banciu, D., Thuemmel, J., and Goswami, B.: Identifying Windows of Opportunity in Deep Learning Weather Models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15586, 2024.

The application of automatic differentiation and deep learning approaches to tackle current challenges is now a widespread practice. The biogeosciences community is no stranger to this trend; however, quite often, previously known physical model abstractions are discarded.

In this study, we model the ecosystem dynamics of vegetation, water, and carbon cycles adopting a hybrid approach. This methodology involves preserving the physical model representations for simulating the targeted processes while utilizing neural networks to learn the spatial variability of their parameters. These models have historically posed challenges due to their complex process representations, varied spatial scales, and parametrizations.

We show that a hybrid approach effectively predicts model parameters with a single neural network, compared with the site-level optimized set of parameters. This approach demonstrates its capability to generate predictions consistent with in-situ parameter calibrations across various spatial locations, showcasing its versatility and reliability in modelling coupled systems.
Here, the physics-based process models undergo evaluation across several FLUXNET sites. Various observations—such as gross primary productivity, net ecosystem exchange, evapotranspiration, transpiration, the normalized difference vegetation index, above-ground biomass, and ecosystem respiration—are utilized as targets to assess the model's performance. Simultaneously, a neural network (NN) is trained to predict the model parameters, using input features(to the NN) such as plant functional types, climate types, bioclimatic variables, atmospheric nitrogen and phosphorus deposition, and soil properties. The model simulation is executed within our internal framework Sindbad.jl (to be open-sourced), designed to ensure compatibility with gradient-based optimization methods.

This work serves as a stepping stone, demonstrating that incorporating neural networks into a broad collection of physics-based models holds significant promise and has the potential to leverage the abundance of current Earth observations, enabling the application of these methods on a larger scale.

How to cite: Alonso, L., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Gans, F., Ahrens, B., Cremer, F., Wutzler, T., Ayoub Chettouh, M., and Reichstein, M.: Hybrid Modelling: Bridging Neural Networks and Physics-Based Approaches in Terrestrial Biogeochemical Ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16513, 2024.

Deep learning weather prediction (DLWP) models have recently proven to be a viable alternative to classical numerical integration. Often, the skill of these models can be improved further by providing additional exogenous fields such as time of day, orography, or sea surface temperatures stemming from an independent ocean model. These merely serve as information sources and are not predicted by the model.

In this study, we explore how such exogenous fields can be utilized by DLWP models most optimally and find that the de facto standard way of concatenating them to the input is suboptimal. Instead, we suggest leveraging existing conditioning techniques from the broader deep learning community that modulate the mean and variance of normalized feature vectors in latent space. These, so called, style-based techniques lead to consistently smaller forecast errors and, at the same time, can be integrated with relative ease into existing forecasting architectures. This makes them an attractive avenue to improve deep learning weather prediction in the future.

How to cite: Hoffmann, S., Thümmel, J., and Goswami, B.: Conditioning Deep Learning Weather Prediction Models On Exogenous Fields, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17165, 2024.

The biogeoscience community has increasingly embraced the application of machine learning models across various domains from fire prediction to vegetation forecasting. Yet, as these models become more widely used, there is sometimes a gap in understanding between what we assume the model learns and what the model actually learns. For example, Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) models are applied to long time series, hoping they benefit from access to more information, despite their tendency to rapidly forget information. This can lead to erroneous conclusions, misinterpretation of results, and an overestimation of the models, ultimately eroding trust in their reliability. 

To address this issue, we employ an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) post hoc perturbation technique that is task-agnostic and model-agnostic. We aim to examine the extent to which the model leverages information for its predictions, both in terms of time and space. In other words, we want to observe the actual receptive field utilized by the model. We introduce a methodology designed to quantify both the spatial impact of neighboring pixels on predicting a specific pixel and the temporal periods contributing to predictions in time series models. The experiments take place after training the model, during inference. In the spatial domain, we define ground-truth pixels to predict, then examine the increase in prediction error, caused by shuffling their neighboring pixels at various distances from the selection. In the temporal domain, we investigate how shuffling a sequence of frames within the context period at different intervals relative to the target period affects the increase in prediction loss. This method can be applied across a broad spectrum of spatio-temporal tasks. Importantly, the method is easy-to-implement, as it only relies on the inference of predictions at test time and the shuffling of the perturbation area. 

For our experiments, we focus on the vegetation forecasting task, i.e., forecasting the evolution of the Vegetation Index (VI) based on Sentinel-2 imagery using previous Sentinel-2 sequences and weather information to guide the prediction. This task involves both spatial non-linear dependencies arising from the spatial context (e.g., the surrounding area, such as a river or a slope, directly influencing the VI) and non-linear temporal dependencies such as the gradual onset of drought conditions and the rapid influence of precipitation events. We compare several models for spatio-temporal tasks, including ConvLSTM and transformer-based architectures on their usage of neighboring pixels in space, and context period in time. We demonstrate that the ConvLSTM relies on a  restricted spatial area in its predictions, indicating a limited utilization of the spatial context up to 50m (5 pixels). Furthermore, it utilizes the global order of the time series sequence to capture the seasonal cycle but loses sensitivity to the local order after 15 days (3 frames). The introduced XAI method allows us to quantify spatial and temporal behavior exhibited by machine learning methods.

How to cite: Robin, C., Benson, V., Requena-Mesa, C., Alonso, L., Poehls, J., Russwurm, M., Carvalhais, N., and Reichstein, M.: Analyzing Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Models through Input Perturbation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17389, 2024.

Central to understanding climate change impacts and mitigation strategies is the generation of high-resolution, local-scale projections from global climate models. This study focuses on Danish hydrology, developing models finely tuned to generate essential climate fields such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and water vapor flux.

Employing advancements in computer science and deep learning, we introduce a pioneering Cascaded Diffusion Model for high-resolution image generation. This model utilizes our understanding of climate dynamics in a hydrological context by integrating multiple climate variable fields across an expanded North Atlantic domain to produce a model for stable and realistic generation. In our approach, 30 years of low-resolution daily conditioning data (ERA5) are re-gridded to match the 2.5x2.5 km 'ground truth' data (30 years of DANRA), and preprocessed by shifting a 128x128 image within a larger 180x180 pixel area, ensuring varied geographic coverage. This data, along with land-sea masks and topography, is fed as channels into the model. A novel aspect of our model is its specialized loss function, weighted by a signed distance function to reduce the emphasis on errors over sea areas, aligning with our focus on land-based hydrological modeling.

This research is part of a larger project aimed at bridging the gap between CMIP data models and ERA5 and DANRA analysis. It represents the first phase in a three-step process, with future stages focusing on downscaling from CMIP6 to CORDEX-EUROPE models, and ultimately integrating model and analysis work to form a complete pipeline from global projections to localized daily climate statistics.

How to cite: Quistgaard, T., Langen, P. L., Denager, T., Schneider, R., and Stisen, S.: Using Cascaded Diffusion Models and Multi-Channel Data Integration for High-Resolution Statistical Downscaling of ERA5 over Denmark, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17554, 2024.

Here we develop a machine learning emulator based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to predict regional climate responses to aerosol emissions and use it to study the sensitivity of surface temperature to anthropogenic emission changes in key policy regions. Aerosol emissions have both an immediate local effect on air quality, and regional effects on climate in terms of changes to temperature and precipitation distributions via direct radiative impacts and indirect cloud-aerosol interactions. Regional climate change depends on a balance between aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing, and in particular extreme events are very sensitive to changes in aerosol emissions. Our goal is to provide a tool which can be used to test the impacts of policy-driven emission changes efficiently and accurately, while retaining the spatio-temporal complexity of the larger physics-based Earth System Model.

How to cite: Dewey, M., Ekman, A., Watson-Parris, D., and Hansson, H. C.: Machine learning aerosol impacts on regional climate change., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17601, 2024.

In recent years, the intersection of machine learning (ML) and climate science has yielded profound insights into understanding and predicting extreme climate events, particularly heatwaves and droughts. Various approaches have been suggested to define and model extreme events, including extreme value theory (Sura, 2011), random forests (e.g., (Weirich-Benet et al., 2023) and, more recently, deep learning (e.g., (Jacques-Dumas et al., 2022)). Within this context, quantile regression (QR) is valuable for modelling the relationship between variables by estimating the conditional quantiles of the response variable. This provides insights into the entire distribution rather than just the mean but also aids in unravelling the complex relationships among climate variables (Barbosa et al., 2011; Franzke, 2015). QR has been extended in many ways to address critical issues such as nonlinear relations, nonstationary processes, compound events, and the complexities of handling spatio-temporal data. 

This study presents a novel approach for predicting and better understanding heatwaves. We introduce an interpretable, nonlinear, non-parametric, and structured Spatio-Temporal Quantile Regression (STQR) method that incorporates the QR check function, commonly known as pinball loss, into machine learning models. We focus on analysing how the importance of predictors changes as the quantile being modelled increases. This allows us to circumvent arbitrary definitions of what constitutes a heatwave and instead observe if a natural definition of a heatwave emerges in predictor space. By analysing European heatwaves over recent decades using reanalysis and weather data, we demonstrate the advantages of our methodology over traditional extreme event modelling methods.

References

Barbosa, S.M., Scotto, M.G., Alonso, A.M., 2011. Summarising changes in air temperature over Central Europe by quantile regression and clustering. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 3227–3233. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3227-2011

Franzke, C.L.E., 2015. Local trend disparities of European minimum and maximum temperature extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 6479–6484. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065011

Jacques-Dumas, V., Ragone, F., Borgnat, P., Abry, P., Bouchet, F., 2022. Deep Learning-based Extreme Heatwave Forecast. Front. Clim. 4, 789641. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.789641

Sura, P., 2011. A general perspective of extreme events in weather and climate. Atmospheric Res. 101, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.012

Weirich-Benet, E., Pyrina, M., Jiménez-Esteve, B., Fraenkel, E., Cohen, J., Domeisen, D.I.V., 2023. Subseasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models. Artif. Intell. Earth Syst. 2. https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-22-0038.1

How to cite: Bassotto, D., Diaz, E., and Camps-Valls, G.: Spatio-temporal Nonlinear Quantile Regression for Heatwave Prediction and Understanding, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17694, 2024.

Earth observation (EO) repositories comprise Petabytes of data. Due to their widespread use, these repositories experience extremely large volumes of data transfers. For example, users of the Sentinel Data Access System downloaded 78.6 PiB of data in 2022 alone. The transfer of such data volumes between data producers and consumers causes substantial latency and requires significant amounts of energy and vast storage capacities. This work introduces Neural Embedding Compression (NEC), a method that transmits compressed embeddings to users instead of raw data, greatly reducing transfer and storage costs. The approach uses general purpose embeddings from Foundation Models (FM), which can serve multiple downstream tasks and neural compression, which balances between compression rate and the utility of the embeddings. We implemented the method by updating a minor portion of the FM’s parameters (approximately 10%) for a short training period of about 1% of the original pre-training iterations. NEC’s effectiveness is assessed through two EO tasks: scene classification and semantic segmentation. When compared to traditional compression methods applied to raw data, NEC maintains similar accuracy levels while reducing data by 75% to 90%. Notably, even with a compression rate of 99.7%, there’s only a 5% decrease in accuracy for scene classification. In summary, NEC offers a resource-efficient yet effective solution for multi-task EO modeling with minimal transfer of data volumes.

How to cite: Gomes, C. and Brunschwiler, T.: Earth Observation Applications through Neural Embedding Compression from Foundation Models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19460, 2024.

Pests significantly impact crop yields, leading to food insecurity. Pesticides are substances, or a mixture of substances, made to eliminate or control pests, or to regulate the growth of crops.
Currently, more than 1000 pesticides are available in the market. However, their long-lasting environmental impact necessitates strict regulation, especially regarding their presence in food (FAO, 2022). Pesticides play also a role in the atmosphere as their volatilization can produce oxidized products through photolysis or OH reactions and they can be transported over large distances.
The fundamental properties and behaviours of these compounds are still not well understood. Because of their complex structure, even low DFT level computations can be extremely expensive. 
This project applies machine learning (ML) tools to chemical ionization mass spectra to ultimately develop a technique capable of predicting spectra’s peak intensities and the chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) sensitivity to pesticides. The primary challenge is to develop a ML model that comprehensively explains ion-molecule interactions while minimizing computational costs.

Our data set comprises different standard mixtures containing, in total, 716 pesticides measured with an orbitrap atmospheric pressure CIMS, with a multi-scheme chemical ionization inlet (MION) and five different concentrations (Rissanen et al, 2019; Partovi et al, 2023). The reagents of the ionization methods are CH₂Br₂, H₂O, O₂ and (CH₃)₂CO, generating respectively Br^- , H₃O⁺, O^2- and [(CH₃)₂ CO + H]⁺ ions.

The project follows a general ML workflow: after an exploratory analysis, the data are preprocessed and fed to the ML algorithm, which classifies the ionization method able to detect the molecule, and, therefore, predicts the peak intensity of each pesticide; the accuracy of the prediction can be retrieved after measuring the performance of the model.
A random forest classifier was chosen to perform the classification of the ionization methods, to predict which one was able to detect each pesticide. The regression was performed with a kernel ridge regressor. Each algorithm was run with different types of molecular descriptors (topological fingerprint, MACCS keys and many-body tensor representation), to test which one was able to represent the molecular structure most accurately.

The results of the exploratory analysis highlight different trends between the positive and negative ionization methods, suggesting that different ion-molecule mechanisms are involved (Figure 1). The classification reaches around 80% accuracy for each ionization method with all four molecular descriptors tested, while the regression can predict fairly well the logarithm of the intensities of each ionization method, reaching 0.5 of error with MACCS keys for (CH₃)₂CO reagent (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Distribution of pesticide peak intensities for each reagent ion at five different concentrations.

Figure 2: Comparison of the KRR performance on (CH3)2CO reagent data with four different molecular descriptors.

How to cite: Bortolussi, F., Sandström, H., Partovi, F., Mikkilä, J., Rinke, P., and Rissanen, M.: Building A Machine Learning Model To Predict Sample Pesticide Content Utilizing Thermal Desorption MION-CIMS Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20342, 2024.

Leveraging Machine Learning (ML) models, particularly Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) like Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), has become pivotal in addressing the escalating frequency and severity of extreme events such as heatwaves, hurricanes, floods, and droughts. In climate modeling, ML proves invaluable for analyzing diverse datasets, including climate data and satellite imagery, outperforming traditional methods by adeptly handling vast information and identifying intricate patterns. Focusing on the study's emphasis on extreme precipitation events, the urgency arises from climate change, demanding more accurate and timely methods to predict and manage the impacts of these events.

In this study, we completed two main experiments to understand if ML algorithms can detect the extreme events. In both experiment the predictors that have been used are eastern and northern wind (u,v), geopotential height (z), specific humidity (q) and temperature (t) at four pressure levels, which are 1000hpa, 850hpa, 700hpa, and 500hpa. The frequency for the predictors is 3 hours, while the predictand being the precipitation accumulated over 3 hours. The data used in this study are the Re-Analysis -5th generation- (ERA5) produced by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), which provides global hourly estimates of large number of atmospheric, land and oceanic climate variables with a resolution of 25 km at different pressure levels and for the surface (precipitation in our case).

In this study, two main architectures have been applied. The first emulator, ERA-Emulator, contains 14 layers, divided in 4 blocks (input, convolutional, dense, output). In the convolutional block we have 6 convolutional layers, one layer of type ConvLSTM2D, that combines a 2D Convolutional layer and an LSTM layer, and five simple 2D convolutional layers, with two of them followed by a MaxPooling layer. In the Dense block there are three fully connected Dense layers followed by one Flatten layer and one Dropout layer. Then, we have the output layer, also a Dense layer. We used the same architecture for the second emulator, GRIPHO-Emulator, with one extra MaxPooling in the convolutional block, for a total of 15 layers. The first emulator uses variables from ERA5 both as input and output at 25 km resolution, while the second one uses variables from ERA5 as input, and the Gridded Italian Precipitation Hourly Observations dataset (GRIPHO) as output at 3 km resolution.

The ERA-Emulator is designed to approximate the downscaling function by utilizing low-resolution simulations to generate equivalent low resolution precipitation fields. ERA-Emulator resulted in a viable approach to address this challenge. The emulator demonstrates the capability to derive precipitation fields that align with ERA5 low-resolution simulations.  GRIPHO-emulator aims to downscale high resolution precipitation from low-resolution large-scale predictors. The emulator aims to estimate the downscaling function. GRIPHO-Emulator is able to create realistic high-resolution precipitation fields that well represent the observed precipitation distribution from the high resolution GRIPHO dataset.

How to cite: Abed, W. and Coppola, E.: Detection of High Convective Precipitation Events Using Machine Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21760, 2024.

Ocean regional climate variability is a part of the Earth's complex system that can influence the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events. Variability in ocean temperature can either amplify or mitigate the impact of these events. For example, the El Niño phenomena affect weather conditions in various parts of the world, leading to droughts, floods, and altered precipitation patterns. Furthermore, regional climate variability is also linked to changes in sea level. Understanding regional variability is crucial for predicting how sea level changes will vary in different parts of the world, which has profound implications for coastal communities and infrastructure. To contribute to this understanding, we have developed a novel method that combines K-means clustering and Principal Component Analysis to extract ocean climate modes at a regional scale worldwide. This integrated approach automatically identifies regions of variability, allowing for the emulation of coastal and regional sea level variations across multiple timescales. It also has the potential to offer valuable insights into the significance of temperature across multiple depth layers extending up to 700 meters. The produced set of regional sea-level emulators are a complementary source of information in coastal areas, especially in situations where satellite altimetry encounters challenges and/or tide-gauge sensor records are incomplete, thereby supporting well-informed decision-making.

How to cite: Radin, C. and Nieves, V.: Exploring Regional Ocean Climate Variability: Insights from Integrated Clustering and Principal Component Analysis., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-120, 2024.

How to cite: Irie, R., Stewart, H., Kura, T., Hisada, M., and Yaguchi, T.: Parameterizing ocean vertical mixing using deep learning trained from high-resolution simulations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2297, 2024.

Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can be a cost-effective solution for capturing a comprehensive view of surface ocean phenomena to study marine population dynamics and ecology. UAVs have several advantages, such as quick deployment from shore, low operational costs, and the ability to be equipped with various sensors, including visual imaging systems and thermal imaging sensors. However, analyzing high-resolution images captured from UAVs can be challenging and time-consuming, especially when identifying small objects or anomalies. Therefore, we developed a method to quickly identify a diverse range of targets in UAV images.

We will discuss our workflow for accelerating the analysis of high-resolution visual images captured from a Trinity F90+ Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) drone in near-shore habitats around the Monterey Bay region in California at approximately 60 meters altitude. Our approach uses a state-of-the-art self-distillation with knowledge (DINO) transformer foundation model and multi-scale, sliced object detection (SAHI) methods to locate a wide range of objects, from small to large, such as schools or individual jellyfish, flocks of birds, kelp forests or kelp fragments, small debris, occasional cetaceans, and pinnipeds. To make the data analysis more efficient, we create clusters of similar objects based on visual similarity, which can be quickly examined through a web-based interface. This approach eliminates the need for previously labeled objects to train a model, optimizing limited human resources. Our work demonstrates the useful application of state-of-the-art techniques to assist in the rapid analysis of images and how this can be used to develop a recognition system based upon machine-learning for the rapid detection and classification of UAV images. All of our work is freely available as open-source code.

How to cite: Edgington, D. R., Cline, D. E., O'Reilly, T., Haddock, S. H. D., Ryan, J. P., Touryan-Schaefer, B., Kirkwood, W. J., McGill, P. R., and McEwen, R. S.: Accelerating Marine UAV Drone Image Analysis with Sliced Detection and Clustering (MBARI SDCAT), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2934, 2024.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have significant impacts on global climate change, and the research on their accurate forecasting and dynamic predictability holds remarkable scientific and engineering values. Recent years, we have constructed two ENSO deep learning forecasting models, ENSO-ASC and ENSO-GTC, which are both incorporated with prior ENSO dynamic mechanisms. Specifically, the former possesses the multivariate air-sea coupler (ASC), which can simulate the occurrence and decay of ENSO events, accompanied by concurrent energy interactions among multiple physical variables in the Pacific Ocean. The latter possesses the global teleconnection coupler (GTC), which can modulate the significant teleconnections of global ocean basins rather than the isolated interactions in the Pacific Ocean. From the perspective of forecasting skill, the Niño 3.4 index correlation skills of these two models can reach 0.78/0.65/0.50 (0.79/0.66/0.51) in 6/12/18 lead-month prediction, which means they exhibit an effective forecasting lead month of more than 18, outperforming the Ham et al.'s Nature-published ENSO forecasting model. The test of the past year's (2022) forecast results shows that the average forecast error of these two models is 0.156, which is less than 10% of the actual ENSO amplitudes. It is worth noting that these two models also encounter the spring presistence barrier (SPB), but indicates a profound improvement compared to the numerical models. From the perspective of ENSO predictability, zonal and meridional winds are two sensitive predictors for ENSO forecasting besides sea surface temperature (SST), which greatly contribute to the Bjerknes positive feedback mechanism and WES mechanism. Walker circulation, acting as the "atmpsphric bridge", induces the teleconnections of the three oceans, which can derive the easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific from the Indian Ocean and North Pacific meridional mode in the northeastern Pacific from the Atlantic Ocean, promoting ENSO event development and decay.

How to cite: Qin, B.: Two Physics-informed Enso Deep Learning Forecasting Models: ENSO-ASC and ENSO-GTC, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3372, 2024.

The assessment and monitoring of microbial plankton biodiversity are essential to obtain a robust evaluation of the health status of marine environments. The PETRI-MED project addresses this imperative by developing novel strategies to monitor the microbial plankton community composition and function, based on satellite observations. PETRI-MED will focus on the Mediterranean Sea as a global biodiversity hotspot with profound ecological and cultural importance. The primary objectives of PETRI-MED project encompass (i) the development of innovative satellite-based indicators to determine the biodiversity status and trends of microbial plankton community, (ii) the identification of spatio-temporal patterns in microbial plankton distribution and diversity, and (iii) the elucidation of key controls of biodiversity patterns, including ecological connectivity, natural and human-related forcings, by focusing on key indicators of ocean’s health and/or biogeochemical state. To do so, PETRI-MED will largely rely on satellite optical radiometric measurements (i.e, Ocean Colour, OC), exploiting the combined temporal and spatial characteristics of latest OC European datasets (i.e., Copernicus Sentinel-3 and European Space Agency OC-CCI) with state-of-the-art remote sensing observations and biogeochemical models (as provided by Copernicus Marine), marine currents modelling, and genomic techniques. To achieve the ambitious goal of merging remote sensing, biogeochemical/physical modelling, and in situ omics measurements, PETRI-MED will rely on Artificial Intelligence (AI). The overarching goal of PETRI-MED is to empower policymakers and stakeholders with the necessary knowledge to adopt prioritization approaches for ecosystem management based on quantitative, real-time metrics. This includes the design and implementation of protection strategies and policies to safeguard biodiversity, quantifying the impact of implemented actions at various levels, and enabling systematic, fact-supported management of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), Key Biodiversity Areas, and Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas. Furthermore, PETRI-MED seeks to evaluate the viability of MPA management in response to climate change, ensuring adaptive strategies for the conservation of marine ecosystems in the face of environmental challenges. In summary, PETRI-MED represents a comprehensive and innovative approach to advancing our understanding of microbial plankton biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea. Through the integration of satellite technology, omics techniques and AI, the project contributes valuable insights and tools for effective marine ecosystem management and conservation strategies.

How to cite: Tinta, T. and the PETRI-MED: PETRI-MED: Advancing Satellite-Based Monitoring for Microbial Plankton Biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3523, 2024.

The development of the world economy in recent years has been accompanied by a significant increase in maritime traffic. Accordingly, numerous ship collision incidents, especially in dense maritime traffic zones, have been reported with damage, including oil spills, transportation interruption, etc. To improve maritime surveillance and minimize incidents over the seas, satellite imagery provided by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical sensors has become one of the most effective and economical solutions in recent years. Indeed, both SAR and optical images can be used to detect vessels of different sizes and categories, thanks to their high spatial resolutions and wide swath.

To process a mass of satellite data, Deep Learning (DL) has become an indispensable solution to detect ships with a high accuracy rate. However, the DL models require time and effort for implementation, especially for training, validating, and testing with big datasets. This issue is more significant if we use different satellite imagery datasets for ship detection because data preparation tasks will be multiplied. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate various approaches for applying the DL models trained and tested on different datasets with various spatial resolution and radiometric features. Concretely, we focus on two aspects of ship detection from multi-source satellite imagery that have not been attentively discussed in the literature. First, we compare the performance of DL models trained on one HR or MR dataset and those trained on the combined HR and MR datasets. Second, we compare the performance of DL models trained on an optical or SAR dataset and tested on another. Likewise, we evaluate the performance of DL models trained on the combined SAR and optical dataset. The objective of this work is to answer a practical question of ship detection in maritime surveillance, especially for emergency cases if we can directly apply the DL models trained on one dataset to others having differences in spatial resolution and radiometric features without the supplementary steps such as data preparation and DL models retraining.

When dealing with a limited number of training images, the performance of DL models via the approaches proposed in this study was satisfactory. They could improve 5–20% of average precision, depending on the optical images tested. Likewise, DL models trained on the combined optical and radar dataset could be applied to both optical and radar images. Our experiments showed that the models trained on an optical dataset could be used for radar images, while those trained on a radar dataset offered very poor scores when applied to optical images.

How to cite: La, T.-V., Pham, M.-T., and Chini, M.: Collocation of multi-source satellite imagery for ship detection based on Deep Learning models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3954, 2024.

Seismic hazard assessment requires a detailed understanding of the evolution of fault systems, rupture processes, and linkage between segments. Identifying and characterizing Quaternary surface faulting features, such as fault scarps, provide valuable morphotectonic data on cumulative displacement over time, especially in regions with moderate to low seismic activity. Although fault cumulative vertical surface offsets have been traditionally measured using topographic profiles, these profiles are unevenly spread along the faults and may not reflect all the morphological changes along them. To address this situation, expanding the analysis to encompass a larger number of profiles is a viable option; nevertheless, manually executing this task would prove significantly time-consuming. Machine Learning (ML) has shown unprecedented capacities to evaluate large datasets in reduced time and provide a wealth valuable information with their related uncertainties. With this in mind, we propose a ML algorithm called ScarpLearn based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to compute the vertical cumulative displacement and its uncertainty for normal fault scarps. Despite ScarpLearn being initially developed to characterize simple scarps in onshore areas, we have enhanced its capabilities so that it can also be used in offshore areas subject to oceanic processes. This includes, among others, more intense diffusion, or the presence of seabed features such as pockmarks. Additionally, we have improved the code's versatility by providing a method modification that allows it to better characterization of scarps in more complex areas where multiple faults offset the seafloor. To this, we have trained the algorithm using a large database of realistic synthetic bathymetric profiles, including different parameters such as fault dip, slip velocity, scarp spread, scarp diffusion coefficient, and variable resolutions to ensure adaptability to all datasets. These modifications have resulted in the improvement of the ScarpLearn algorithm’s adaptability, elevating its accuracy and reliability in capturing the complexity of marine fault systems, but also applicable to terrestrial systems. We have applied the new ScarpLearn version to the North-South faults of the northern Alboran Sea, contributing to the accurate analysis of this Plio-Quaternary transtensional system and its complex geological structures. This innovative approach has allowed us to refine the morphotectonic analysis of the area and to understand better the geodynamics of the North-South faults system. In this research, we have explored the advances of the CNN method achieved in oceanic environments, considering intensive data compilation, computational time, accuracy, uncertainties, and current limitations. Our advances demonstrate the ScarpLearn ML potential, specifically tailored to analyze marine environments and multiple fault segments both onshore and offshore. Our research results contribute to the progress of marine geosciences by improving morphotectonic analysis using ML algorithms.

Keywords: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Oceanic processes, Normal faults, Multiple scarps.

How to cite: Canari, A., Pousse-Beltran, L., Giffard-Roisin, S., Perea, H., and Martínez – Loriente, S.: Revealing Machine Learning's potential for morphotectonic analysis of marine faults: Application to the North-South faults in the Alboran Sea (Westernmost Mediterranean), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4126, 2024.

Prediction of sea surface current is essential for various marine activities, such as tourist industry, commercial transportation, fishing industries, search and rescue operations, and so on. Numerical forecast models make it possible to predict a realistic ocean with the help of data-assimilation and fine spatial resolution. Nevertheless, complicated numerical prediction model requires heavy power and time for computation, which initiated development of novel approaches with efficient computational costs. In that sense, artificial neural networks could be one of the solutions because they need low computational power for prediction thanks to pre-trained networks. Here, we present a prediction framework applicable to the surface current prediction in the seas around the Korean peninsula using three-dimensional (3-D) convolutional neural networks. The network is based on the 3-D U-net structure and modified to predict sea surface currents using oceanic and atmospheric variables. In the forecast procedure, it is optimized to minimize the error of the next day’s sea surface current field and its recursively predicting structure allows more days to be predicted. The network’s performance is evaluated by changing input days and variables to find the optimal surface-current-prediction artificial neural network model, which demonstrates its strong potential for practical uses near future.

How to cite: Park, J.-H., Chae, J.-Y., and Kim, Y. T.: Surface current prediction in the seas around the Korean peninsula using a CNN-based deep-learning model , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4488, 2024.

The Indonesian ThroughfFow (ITF) plays a vital role in the global ocean circulation and climate system. The intricate labyrinth of passages around the Indonesian Seas poses a grand challenge in monitoring and understanding the throughflow in the region. In this study, we employ the deep-learning approach to examine to what degree known sea level variations can determine main in- and outflows through the Indonesian Seas. The approach is first validated using the simulated environment from a regional circulation model. Our results show that the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models can well represent the temporal variations of throughflows across the Indonesian Seas. Moreover, the skills can be significantly improved if aided by time series of transport from a small number of passages. We also apply the trained model to the satellite derived sea surface height in design of more effective allocations of observation assets.

How to cite: Xue, H., Wang, Z., and Wang, Y.: Applying Deep-learning Models in Observation Simulation Experiments of Throughflows Across the Indonesian Seas, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4587, 2024.

Coral reefs, which host more than a third of the ocean’s biodiversity on less than 0.1% of its surface, are existentially threatened by climate change and other human activities. This necessitates methods for evaluating the state of coral reefs that are efficient, scalable, and low-cost. Current digital reef monitoring tools typically rely on conventional Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry, which can limit the scalability, and current datasets for training semantic segmentation systems are either sparsely labeled, domain-specific, or very small. We describe the first deep-learning-based 3D semantic mapping approach, which enables rapid mapping of coral reef transects by leveraging the synergy between self-supervised deep learning SLAM systems and neural network-based semantic segmentation, even when using low-cost underwater cameras. The 3D mapping component learns to tackle the challenging lighting effects of underwater environments from a large dataset of reef videos. The transnational data-collection initiative was carried out in Djibouti, Sudan, Jordan, and Israel, with over 150 hours of collected video footage for training the neural network for 3D reconstruction. The semantic segmentation component is a neural network trained on a dataset of video frames with over 80’000 annotated polygons from 36 benthic classes, down to the resolution of prominent visually identifiable genera found in the shallow reefs of the Red Sea. This research paves the way for affordable and widespread deployment of the method in analysis of video transects in conservation and ecology, highlighting a promising intersection with machine learning for tangible impact in understanding these oceanic ecosystems. 

How to cite: Sauder, J., Banc-Prandi, G., Perna, G., Meibom, A., and Tuia, D.: Scalable 3D Semantic Mapping of Coral Reefs with Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5552, 2024.

Oxygen is fundamentally essential for all life. Unfortunately, recent research has shown that global ocean deoxygenation has significantly increased over the past 50 years, and the stock of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the ocean has been continuously decreasing. Breathless ocean has led to large-scale death of fish, seriously affecting the marine ecosystem. Moreover, global warming and human activities have further intensified the expansion of dead zones (low-oxygen area) in the ocean.

Hence, it is of vital importance to quantitatively understand and predict the trend of global ocean deoxygenation. However, despite of the accumulation of in-situ DO observation in recent years, global and long-term observation data is still severely sparse, leading to a critical challenge in reconstructing global ocean deoxygenation over a century. Existing works can be categorized into two ways: (1) Physics-informed numerical models. These methods simulate the DO concentration based on climate models without utilizing in-situ observations, e.g., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). However, these models fail to adjust biased simulation results based on temporal DO observations and cause error propagation. (2) Spatial interpolation methods. These methods reconstruct the global deoxygenation through available observations by geostatistical regression, Kriging, etc. But these ways are unable to capture the complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity and physical-biogeochemical properties, showing inconsistent performance in different areas.

To this end, we propose a knowledge-infused deep graph learning method called 4D Spatio-Temporal Graph HyperNetwork (4D-STGHN) to reconstruct four-dimensional (including time, latitude, longitude, and depth) global ocean deoxygenation from 1920 till now. To capture the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in different regions, 4D-STGHN utilize hypernetwork to generate non-shared parameters by fusing 4D geographic information and observations. Moreover, we design a chemistry-informed gradient norm mechanism as the loss function by integrating the observation of nitrate and phosphate, hereby further improving the performance of DO reconstruction. 4D-STGHN shows promising reconstruction with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of only 5.39%, largely outperforming three CMIP6 experiments (CESM2-omip1, CESM2-omip2 and GFDL-ESM4-historical) on dissolved oxygen and other machine learning methods. Further analysis on the global oxygen minimum zones, as well as regional analysis are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

How to cite: Lu, B., Zhao, Z., Han, L., Gan, X., Zhou, Y., Zhou, L., Fu, L., Wang, X., Zhang, J., and Zhou, C.: Reconstructing Global Ocean Deoxygenation Over a Century with Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5926, 2024.

To elucidate the complex dynamics of zooplankton grazing and its impact on the organic carbon pump, we leveraged machine learning algorithms to analyze extensive datasets encompassing zooplankton behavior, environmental variables, and carbon flux measurements. Specifically, we employed regression models to establish predictive relationships between zooplankton grazing rates and key environmental factors, such as Potential Temperature, Sea Ice extension and iron availability.

The results demonstrate the potential of machine learning in discerning patterns and nonlinear relationships within the data, offering insights into the factors influencing zooplankton grazing dynamics. Additionally, the models provide a predictive framework to estimate the contribution of zooplankton to the organic carbon pump under varying environmental conditions. We have further analyzed the results by using two explainable AI methods, the Layer Wise Relevance Propagation and Integrated Gradients that informs which physical variables contribute to the prediction.

This research contributes to our understanding of the intricate processes governing carbon sequestration in the ocean, with implications for climate change mitigation and marine ecosystem management. Machine learning techniques assists to unravel the complexities of zooplankton-mediated carbon flux, to unravel the complexities of zooplankton-mediated carbon flux, paving the way for more accurate predictions and proactive conservation strategies in the face of global environmental changes.

How to cite: Navarra, G. G., Sane, A., and Deutsch, C.: Analyzing Zooplankton grazing spatial variability in the Southern Ocean using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6735, 2024.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are natural disasters originating over tropical or subtropical oceans. Their landfall is generally accompanied by extensive high winds and persistent precipitation, causing severe economic losses and human casualties yearly. Consequently, conducting effective TC landfall intensity forecasts for disaster risk reduction is imperative. The calm center of a TC, known as the TC eye, serves as a vital indicator of its intensity. Hence, precisely locating TC centers is crucial for determining TC intensity. In this study, a deep-learning model was developed to extract TC centers from satellite remote-sensing images automatically.
Space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery plays a critical role in monitoring natural hazards owing to its high spatial resolution, wide coverage, and day-night imaging capabilities. A total of 110 Sentinel SAR images spanning from 2016 to 2019 were used for TC center localization in this paper. They were acquired in interferometric-wide (IW) mode with a pixel size of 10 m and extra-wide (EW) mode with a pixel size of 40 m. They were resampled by spatial averaging to maintain the same pixel size of 80 m. Additionally, we manually annotated the central area of tropical cyclone images as ground truth data.
For the dataset, we initially divided 110 SAR images and the corresponding truth data into training, validation, and testing sets in an 8:1:1 ratio. Subsequently, we partitioned the SAR images into 256 × 256 pixel-sized slices as the model inputs. 32151/4611/3900 samples were extracted as the training/validation/testing dataset. Considering the target samples containing the center position are far less than compared background samples in TCs, we retained all center-containing samples and randomly selected 1.2 times the number of background samples for each image. Consequently, we obtained a final dataset of 2388/257/245 samples for training, validation, and testing.
As is known, deep learning technology excels in learning non-linear relationships and is good at automatically extracting intricate patterns from SAR imagery. The Res-UNet, a U-Net-like model with the weighted attention mechanism and the skip connection scheme that has been proven effective in solving the problem of contrast reduction caused by signal interference, was ultimately determined as the deep learning model for the automatic positioning of tropical cyclone centers in our study.
We calculated the centroid of the central region and compared the model results with ground truth. Our model outputs agreed well with the visually located TC center with a mean intersection over union (IOU) and a mean TC center location error of 0.71/0.70/0.67 and 3.59/2.24/2.20 km for the training/validation/testing dataset. Moreover, our model greatly simplifies the complexity of traditional methods such as using spiral rainbands and background wind fields for center positioning. At the same time, our method can not only obtain the position of the TC center but also extract the central area, thereby obtaining the morphological characteristics of TCs, which is conducive to better monitoring and intensity determination of TC.

How to cite: Mu, S., Wang, H., and Li, X.: A Deep Learning Model for Tropical Cyclone Center Localization Based on SAR Imagery, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6927, 2024.

Surface currents influence ship navigation, coastal heat transfer and sediment transport, and thus necessitate robust models that can reliably predict surface current behaviour. However, our ability to make predictions over long time scales are commonly hampered by a lack of long observational datasets. Remote sensing technologies, which include satellite altimetry and high-frequency radar, are often used to measure global surface currents. However, their ability to reveal insights on ocean dynamics at a regional scale remain limited by restrictions related to space-time sampling. Here, we explore the use of AIS data as a means to derive surface currents in the Sunda Shelf Region in equatorial southeast Asia. Firstly, we apply nearest-neighbour interpolation to map relevant AIS information, that includes the ship’s speed over ground, course over ground and heading, onto a grid with a spatial resolution of 100m and an hourly temporal resolution. Next, we applied a gradient descent approach to derive surface currents at the positions of the ships. We then implement a generative model on PyTorch to reconstruct surface currents in the region. The model performance is evaluated by comparing to observational data from drifters and drifting buoys. Lastly, we employed wavelet analysis, a type of nonstationary spectral analysis, to examine the dominant frequencies or periods where surface currents are strong. Our pilot study highlights the potential of AIS data as a credible alternative to traditional methods of measuring surface currents in data scarce areas.

How to cite: Puah, J. Y., Haigh, I. D., Lallemant, D., Fablet, R., Morgan, K., and Switzer, A. D.: Unveiling the Ocean’s Rhythms: Blending Deep Learning and Spectral Analysis Together to Gain Insights into Sunda Shelf Surface Currents using AIS Data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8207, 2024.

Phytoplankton sustains marine ecosystems and influences global carbon dioxide levels through photosynthesis. To grow, phytoplankton rely on nutrient availability in the upper sunlit layer, closely related to ocean dynamics and specifically ocean stratification. Human-caused climate change is responsible, among others, for an increase in global temperature and regional modifications of winds, thus affecting the stratification of the ocean's surface. Consequently, phytoplankton biomass is expected to be impacted by these environmental changes. While most existing studies focus on one or two satellite products to investigate phytoplankton trends in the global ocean, in this study, we analyze surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, using six merged satellite products from January 1998 to December 2020. Significant regional discrepancies are observed among the different products, displaying opposing trends. To distinguish trends arising from changes in the physical ocean from those potentially resulting from sensor biases, a convolutional neural network is employed to examine the relationship between chl-a and physical ocean variables (sea surface temperature, sea surface height, sea surface currents, wind, and solar radiation). The training is conducted over 2002-2009 when the number of merged sensors is constant, and chl-a is reconstructed over 2010-2020. Our results suggest that the merging algorithm of the Globcolour Garver, Siegel, Maritorena (GSM) bio-optical model is not reliable for trend detection. Specifically, changes in chl-a after 2016 are not supported by changes in the physical ocean but rather by the introduction of the VIIRS sensor. These results emphasize the need for a careful interpretation of chl-a trends and highlight the potential of machine learning to study the evolution of marine ecosystems.

How to cite: Pauthenet, E., Martinez, E., Gorgues, T., Roussillon, J., Drumetz, L., Fablet, R., and Roux, M.: Chlorophyll-a satellite climate time series: How machine learning can help distinguish between bias and consistency, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8942, 2024.

The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany performs weekly analyses of sea surface temperatures (SST) for the North Sea and Baltic Sea on an operational basis. The analysis is based on in-situ observations and satellite retrievals. Existing procedures require manual quality control and subjective decisions on plausibility of measurements combined with simple interpolation techniques. This study presents ongoing work to develop new procedures based on a machine learning approach, designed to fill in gaps in observational data fields. The employed inpainting technique makes use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) that is trained with complete SST-fields from high-resolution (~3 km) ocean model simulations and masks derived from satellite retrievals to ignore regions covered by clouds on respective days.

First validation efforts for the North Sea based on reconstructing modelled fields that were excluded from training data indicate very promising results, that is an RMSE of ~ 0.5 K or less for most regions of the North Sea. However, areas with high variance such as waters very close to the coast and the Norwegian Channel exhibit larger errors up to 1 K. Additionally, we can show that errors tend to be larger when less observational data are available, e.g. on days with lots of clouds.

It will be tested if optional features of the algorithm may help to improve results in these cases. Especially the possibility to use “memory” of preceding days – potentially featuring less clouds – seems promising in this respect. Furthermore, it will be elaborated if the option of overwriting existing observational data with values better fitting the patterns learned by the CNN is suitable to improve the overall results and hence may be an alternative to external (manual) quality control and plausibility checking.

The final aim of this study is to establish an approach suitable for the operational analysis of daily SSTs with a horizontal resolution of approx. 5 km and the production of an SST reanalysis of North Sea and Baltic Sea SSTs starting in 1990.

How to cite: Kruschke, T., Kadow, C., Meuer, J., and Hinrichs, C.: Machine-learning-based analysis and reconstruction of high-resolution sea-surface temperatures for the North Sea and Baltic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11061, 2024.

Retrievals of ocean color (OC) properties from space are important for better understanding the ocean ecosystem and carbon cycle. The launch of atmospheric hyperspectral instruments such as the geostationary Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) and GEMS, provide a unique opportunity to examine the diurnal variability in ocean ecology across various waters in North America and prepare for the future suite of hyperspectral OC sensors. While TEMPO does not have as high spatial resolution or full spectral coverage as planned coastal ocean sensors such as the Geosynchronous Littoral Imaging and Monitoring Radiometer (GLIMR) or GeoXO OC instrument (OCX), it provides hourly coverage of US coastal regions and great lakes, such as Lake Erie and the Gulf of Mexico at spatial scales of approximately 5 km. We will apply our newly developed machine learning (ML) based atmospheric correction approach for OC retrievals to TEMPO data. Our approach begins by decomposing measured hyperspectral radiances into spectral features that explain the variability in atmospheric scattering and absorption as well as the underlying surface reflectance. The coefficients of the principal components are then used to train a neural network to predict OC properties such as chlorophyll concentration derived from collocated MODIS/VIIRS physically-based retrievals. This ML approach compliments the standard radiative transfer-based OC retrievals by providing gap-filling over cloudy regions where the standard algorithms are limited. Previously, we applied our approach using blue and UV wavelengths with the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) to show that it can estimate OC properties in less-than-ideal conditions such as lightly to moderately cloudy conditions as well as sun glint and thus improve the spatial coverage of ocean color measurements. TEMPO provides an opportunity to improve on this approach since it provides extended spectral measurements at green and red wavelengths which are important particularly for coastal waters. Additionally, our ML technique can be applied to provisional data early in the mission and has potential to demonstrate the value of near real time OC products that are important for monitoring of harmful algae blooms and transient oceanic phenomena.   

How to cite: Fasnacht, Z., Joiner, J., Bandel, M., Haffner, D., Vassilkov, A., Castellanos, P., and Krotkov, N.: Harnessing Machine Learning and Principal Components Techniques for Atmospheric and Glint Correction to Retrieve Ocean Color from Geostationary Satellites, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12271, 2024.

The Peruvian coastal upwelling system (PCUS) is one of the most productive in the world ocean. The Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE) has been monitoring the PCUS  since the 1960’s with an increase in the frequency and spatial distribution of measurements since the early 2000’s focusing on temperature, salinity and oxygen. In recent years, autonomous gliders have started to be routinely deployed by IMARPE, collecting a large amount of profiles. However, there is still a gap for the high-resolution  sampling of biogeochemical parameters such as nutrients (nitrate, phosphate and silicate).

New  methods using machine learning to reconstruct missing data have been developed recently with promising results (Sauzède et al, 2017; Bittig et al., 2018; Fourrier et al., 2020). In particular, a recent global approach using neural networks (NN) named CANYON-B (CArbonate system and Nutrientes concentration from hYdrological properties and Oxygen using a Neural network) was developed in order to fill those gaps and infer nutrients’ concentrations from the more sampled variables of temperature, salinity and oxygen (Bittig et al., 2018).

In this work we show the application of this global CANYON-B algorithm to the PCUS using all the historical IMARPE’s CTD casts. Moreover, we trained a new NN and compared its outputs with the ones from CANYON-B, demonstrating the benefits of training the NN with the extensive regional data set collected by IMARPE.

How to cite: Asto, C., Bosse, A., Pietri, A., Colas, F., Sauzède, R., and Gutiérrez, D.: Application of a Neural Network Algorithm to Estimate the Nutrients Concentration in the Peruvian Upwelling System, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13571, 2024.

The ocean plays a critical role in modulating climate change by absorbing atmospheric CO2. Timely and geographically detailed estimates of the global ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux provide an important constraint on the global carbon budget, offering insights into temporal changes and regional variations in the global carbon cycle. However, previous estimates of this flux have a 1 year delay and cannot monitor the very recent changes in the global ocean carbon sink. Here we present a near-real-time, monthly grid-based dataset of global surface ocean fugacity of CO2 and ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux data from January 2022 to July 2023, which is called Carbon Monitor Ocean (CMO-NRT). The data have been derived by updating the estimates from 10 Global Ocean Biogeochemical Models and 8 data products in the Global Carbon Budget 2022 to a near-real-time framework. This is achieved by employing Convolutional Neural Networks and semi-supervised learning methods to learn the non-linear relationship between the estimates from models or products and the observed predictors. The goal of this dataset is to offer a more immediate, precise, and comprehensive understanding of the global ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux. This advancement enhances the capacity of scientists and policymakers to monitor and respond effectively to alterations in the ocean's CO2 absorption, thereby contributing significantly to climate change management.

How to cite: Ke, P., Gui, X., Cao, W., Wang, D., Hou, C., Wang, L., Song, X., Li, Y., Zhu, B., Bian, J., Sitch, S., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., and Liu, Z.: Near-real-time monitoring of global ocean carbon sink based on CNN, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14839, 2024.

Short-term forecasting (several days in advance) of underwater visibility range is needed for marine and maritime operations involving divers or optical sensors, as well as for recreational activities such as scuba diving (e.g. Chang et al 2013). Underwater visibility mainly depends on water turbidity, which is caused by small suspended particles of organic and mineral origin (Preisendorfer 1986). Modelling the fate of these particles can be complex, encouraging the development of machine learning methods based on satellite data and hydrodynamic simulations (e.g. Jourdin et al 2020). In the field of forecasting visibility, deep learning methods are emerging (Prypeshniuk 2023). Here, in continuation of Vient et al (2022) on the interpolation purpose, this work deals with forecasting subsurface mineral turbidity levels over the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay using the deep learning method entitled 4DVarNet (Fablet et al 2021) applied to ocean colour satellite data, with additional data such as bathymetry (ocean depths) and time series of main forcing statistical parameters like wave significant heights and tidal coefficients. Using satellite data alone, results show that 2-day forecasts are accurate enough. When adding bathymetry and forcing parameters in the process, forecasts can go up to 6 days in advance.

References

Chang, G., Jones, C., and Twardowski, M. (2013), Prediction of optical variability in dynamic nearshore environments, Methods in Oceanography, 7, 63-78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mio.2013.12.002

Fablet, R., Chapron, B., Drumetz, L., Mémin, E., Pannekoucke, O., and Rousseau, F. (2021), Learning variational data assimilation models and solvers, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, e2021MS002572, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002572

Jourdin, F., Renosh, P.R., Charantonis, A.A., Guillou, N., Thiria, S., Badran, F. and Garlan, T. (2021), An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in Deriving Suspended Sediment Concentrations in the Ocean From MTG/FCI Satellite Sensor, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 59(7), 5423-5433, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2020.3011742

Preisendorfer, R. W. (1986), Secchi disk science: Visual optics of natural waters, Limnology and Oceanography, 31(5), 909-926, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1986.31.5.0909

Prypeshniuk, V. (2023), Ocean surface visibility prediction, Master thesis, Ukrainian Catholic University, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Department of Computer Sciences, Lviv, Ukraine, 39 pp, https://er.ucu.edu.ua/handle/1/3948?locale-attribute=en

Vient, J.-M., Fablet, R.;, Jourdin, F. and Delacourt, C. (2022), End-to-End Neural Interpolation of Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Suspended Sediment Concentrations, Remote Sens., 14(16), 4024, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14164024

How to cite: Vient, J.-M., Jourdin, F., Fablet, R., and Delacourt, C.: Data-driven short-term forecast of suspended inorganic matter as seen by ocean colour remote sensing., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15508, 2024.

Rising sea levels are one of many consequences of anthropogenic climate
change. Over the past few decades, several global observational records have
become available that give a more detailed picture of the increasing
impacts. Nevertheless, there continue to be data challenges, such as
sparsity or signal to noise ratio, that need to be dealt with. Machine Learning (ML)
and specifically, Deep Learning (DL) approaches have presented themselves as valuable
tools for such large-scale and complex data sources. To this end, the OceanBench
Benchmark suite was recently developed to provide a
standardized pre-processing and evaluation framework for Sea Surface Height
(SSH) interpolation tasks involving nadir and Surface Water and Ocean Topography
(SWAT) Altimetry Tracks. From the methodological perspective, a reoccurring
issue is the lack of uncertainty quantification for DL applications in Earth
Observation. Therefore, we extend the suite of metrics provided by OceanBench
to probabilistic evaluation metrics and test state-of-the-art uncertainty
quantification models from the DL community. Specifically, we focus on
Conditional Convolutional Neural Processes (ConvCNP) and
Inpainting Diffusion models as methodologies to quantify
uncertainty for the interpolation task and demonstrate their viability and
advantages over other ML methods for both accuracy and probabilistic metrics.

How to cite: Lehmann, N., Bamber, J., and Zhu, X.: Conditional Generative Models for OceanBench Sea Surface Height Interpolation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15594, 2024.

Ocean color data are essential for developing our understanding of biological and ecological phenomena and processes and also of important sources of input for physical and biogeochemical ocean models. Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a critical variable of ocean color in the marine environment. Quantitative retrieval from satellite remote sensing is a main way to obtain large-scale oceanic Chl-a. However, missing data are a major limitation in satellite remote-sensing-based Chl-a products due mostly to the influence of cloud, sun glint contamination, and high satellite viewing angles. The common methods to reconstruct (gap fill) missing data often consider spatiotemporal information of initial images alone, such as Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions, optimal interpolation, Kriging interpolation, and the extended Kalman filter. However, these methods do not perform well in the presence of large-scale missing values in the image and overlook the valuable information available from other datasets for data reconstruction. Here, we developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) named Ocean Chlorophyll-a concentration reconstruction by convolutional neural NETwork (OCNET) for Chl-a concentration data reconstruction in open-ocean areas, considering environmental variables that are associated with ocean phytoplankton growth and distribution. Sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SAL), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and sea surface pressure (SSP) from reanalysis data and satellite observations were selected as the input of OCNET to correlate with the environment and phytoplankton biomass. The developed OCNET model achieves good performance in the reconstruction of global open ocean Chl-a concentration data and captures spatiotemporal variations of these features. The reconstructed Chl-a data are available online at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10011908. This study also shows the potential of machine learning in large-scale ocean color data reconstruction and offers the possibility of predicting Chl-a concentration trends in a changing environment.

How to cite: Hong, Z., Long, D., Li, X., Wang, Y., Zhang, J., Hamouda, M., and Mohamed, M.: A global daily gap-filled chlorophyll-a dataset in open oceans during 2001–2021 from multisource information using convolutional neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16166, 2024.

Traditional physics-based numerical models have served and are serving as reliable tools to gain insights into spatiotemporal behavior of ocean states such as water levels and currents. However, they have significant computational demand that often translates to slower forecasting capabilities. Additionally, these models can encounter difficulties in capturing certain physical processes and struggle to effectively bridge various spatial and temporal scales.

Considering these challenges, machine learning-based surrogate models emerge as a promising alternative. Physical surrogate models that learn multiple physics (on different spatial and temporal scales) from large datasets during extensive pretraining (Multiple physics pretraining, MPP) can enable later applications to poorly observed data domains which are common in ocean sciences. Hence, transfer learning capabilities can help improve the oceanographic forecasting, especially in data-limited regimes.

In this work, we explore the capabilities of pretrained transformer models for prediction on a test case for the North Sea. The results from two-dimensional simulations are used for training and fine-tuning. We utilize 2D datasets from publicly available PDEBench together with domain-specific datasets from DHI’s historical records of simulated 2D metocean data. We forecast water levels and currents with pretrained models and evaluate MPP forecast results against in-situ point observations and numerical model results.

Initial findings suggest that pretraining poses potential for generalizing and transferring knowledge to novel regions and relevance in practical application. A challenge is posed by model interpretability, highlighting an area for further development.

How to cite: Cremer, C., Anderson, H., and Mariegaard, J.: Exploring Pretrained Transformers for Ocean State Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17159, 2024.

One of the disadvantages of oceanographic models is that they can be very computationally expensive. When combined with data assimilation, dynamical approaches such as the EnKF become expensive as they need a large number of ensemble members and thus model runs. In this work we investigate the use of a Multi-Fidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter (MF-EnKF), where the lower fidelity model is a machine learned surrogate model and the high fidelity model is the original full model. The idea behind this is to use an ensemble of a few but expensive full model runs, combined with an ensemble of many cheap but less accurate surrogate model runs. In this way we can reach similar or increased accuracy with less full model runs and thus less computational time. We investigate the performance by testing the approach on a simple atmospheric model, namely the Lorenz-96 model, and an oceanographic model, namely the Quasi-Geostrophic model. Results show that the MF-EnKF outperforms the EnKF for the same number of full model runs and that the MF-EnKF can reach similar or improved accuracy with less full model runs.

How to cite: van der Voort, J., Verlaan, M., and Kekkonen, H.: A Multi-Fidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter with a machine learned surrogate model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17199, 2024.

Mesoscale eddies significantly influence ocean circulation, nutrient distribution, and climate patterns globally.  A thorough reconstruction of the eddy field is therefore important, yet classical eddy detection algorithms based on sea level anomaly (SLA) suffer from the low coverage of the current altimetry network.

In this work, we evaluate the efficacy of deep learning techniques in enhancing the oceanic eddy field reconstruction of an operational ocean forecasting system. We use two ocean models from an Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE): a free-run high-resolution ocean circulation model representing the ‘truth’ and a second one constrained by synthetic observations mimicking the altimetry network through assimilation techniques to approximate the state of the ’truth’ model. 

We train a neural network model that takes sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and ocean surface currents inputs from the data-assimilation model to recover eddies identified in the ‘truth’ model, which are generated with py-eddy-tracker, a sea surface height-based eddy detection algorithm.

Our investigation centers on a semantic segmentation problem using the U- Net architecture to classify pixels for a given map into non-eddy, cyclonic eddy, and anticyclonic eddy. Our study focuses on the Gulf Stream region, an area renowned for its dynamic oceanic conditions. We find a higher detection rate of eddies and reduced inter-class misclassification when compared to eddy fields reconstructed from the data-assimilated model using the traditional SLA-based algorithm. 

Our data-driven method improves the detection of ‘true’ eddies from degraded data in an OSSE framework, and shows potential for application in operational analysis and forecasting systems.

How to cite: El Kadiri, I., Van Gennip, S., Drevillon, M., El Aouni, A., Botvinko, D., and Fablet, R.: Assessing data assimilation techniques with deep learning-based eddy detection, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17320, 2024.

The Sea Surface Height (SSH) is an important variable of the ocean state. It is currently estimated by satellites measuring the return time of a radar pulse. Due to this remote sensing technology, nadir-pointing altimeters take measures vertically, only along their ground tracks. Recovering fully gridded SSH fields involves a challenging spatiotemporal interpolation. The most widely used operational product, the Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System (DUACS), combines data from several satellites through linear optimal interpolation to estimate the SSH field. However several studies demonstrate that DUACS does not resolve mesoscale structures, motivating our interest in improving interpolation methods. Recently, Deep Learning has emerged as one of the leading methods to solve ill-posed inverse imaging problems. Deep Neural Networks can use multi-variate information to constrain the interpolation. Among them, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data is based on a different remote-sensing technology, which leads to higher data coverage and resolution. Deep Learning methods have been proposed to interpolate SSH from track measurements, efficiently using SST contextual information. However, training neural networks usually requires either a realistic simulation of the problem on which we have access to SSH ground truth or a loss function that does not require it. Both solutions present limitations: the first is likely to suffer from domain gap issues once applied to real-world data, and training on observations only leads to lower performance than supervision on complete fields. We propose a hybrid method: a supervised pretraining on a realistic simulation, and an unsupervised fine-tuning on real-world observations. This approach was performed using a deep Attention-based Encoder-Decoder architecture. We compare the performances of the same neural network architecture trained in the three described settings: simulation-based training, observation-based training, and our hybrid approach. Preliminary results show an improvement of approximately 25% over DUACS in the interpolation task on the Ocean Data Challenge 2021 dataset. We further explore the ability of the architecture proposed to produce near real-time forecasts of SSH.

How to cite: Archambault, T., Garcia, P., Charantonis, A. A., and Béréziat, D.: Deep Sea Surface Height Multivariate Interpolation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17465, 2024.

Global ocean numerical models typically have their first vertical level about 0.5m below the sea surface. However, a key physical quantity like the sea surface temperature (SST) can be retrieved from satellites at a reference depth of a few microns or millimeters below the sea surface. Assimilating such temperatures can lead to bias in the ocean models and it is thus necessary to project the satellite retrievals to the first model level to safely use them in the assimilation process. This projection is non-trivial, since it depends on several factors (e.g., daily cycle, winds, latitude) and it is usually performed either with computationally expensive numerical models or with too simple statistical methods.  

In this work we present an attempt to construct the projection operator with machine learning techniques. We consider three different networks: a convolutional neural network architecture called U-Net, which was first introduced in the field of computer vision and image segmentation, and it is thus optimal to process satellite retrievals; a pix2pix network, which is a U-Net trained in an adversarial way against a patch-classifier discriminator; a random forest model, which is a more traditional machine learning technique. We train the networks with L3 global subskin SST from AVHRR’s infrared channels on MetOp satellites produced by OSISAF and wind speed analysis at 10m by ECMWF to reproduce the ESA SST CCI and C3S global SST reprocessed product by CMEMS, that we take as ground truth during training and validation. The pix2pix network is the most effective in the projection and we thus choose it to shape an observation operator for the CMCC’s OceanVar assimilation system.

Finally, we compare several one-year-long reanalysis-like experiments, based on the CMCC reanalysis system, that assimilate the SST in different ways, e.g. nudging, unbiased approach, as observation operator. We discuss the potential impact of such new scheme in providing the best surface ocean state estimate.

How to cite: Broccoli, M., Cipollone, A., and Masina, S.: Towards an Observation Operator for Satellite Retrievals of Sea Surface Temperature with Convolutional Neural Network, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17731, 2024.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant strides in language understanding, including natural language processing, summarization, and translation, and they have the potential to be applied to a range of climate-related challenges. For instance, LLMs can be leveraged for data cleaning and transformation, and also assisting scientists/engineers in their daily work tasks.

For the machine learning community, the year 2023 was arguably the year of breakthroughts in LLM use in production. I present in this work the exciting potential for recent advances in LLMs to revolutionize how the ocean science community can interact with computer code, information gathering, dataset finding, etc. Specifically, I will present simple applications of how these advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) can assist the NEMO ocean model community. Examples range from using question answering systems for browsing efficiently NEMO documentation to creating conversational agents or chatbots that can assist not only new members wanting to learn about the NEMO model but also confirmed users. 

An important aspect of this work is relying only on open source LLMs, evaluating the performances of several models and discussing the ethical implications of these tools. I also discuss the question of whether using these LLMs blindly without domain knowledge is a good idea, as an important chunk of this work can arguably be easily done by anyone with good computer science skills thanks to the democratization of data science tools and learning materials.

How to cite: Lguensat, R.: Leveraging recent advances in Large Language Models for the ocean science community, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18493, 2024.

The water in the basin of sill fjords is renewed occasionally. In some fjords, this renewal occurs irregularly while in others it has a more regular character. Independently of the renewal period, the renewal mechanism is thought to be common to all sill fjords: subsurface water outside of the fjord mouth lifted above the sill depth will trigger a renewal, provided that the lifted water mass is denser than the water in the basin. In Western Norway, the northerly, upwelling favorable winds that occur during Spring/Summer, provide a forcing for the uplifting of the isopycnals and bring dense, subsurface water to the upper water column, thereby creating the conditions for renewals to occur. The renewal of sill fjord basins is an important aspect of the fjord ecological condition because it supplies oxygen rich water to the fjord basin, whose oxygen is consumed by the degradation of organic matter during the stagnant periods. Byfjorden is the urban fjord in Bergen, Norway. It is heavily urbanized and has been consistently showing lower oxygen levels in its basin, which has ecological implications.

Byfjorden’s basin water is regularly renewed between the months of March and August and a strong link to coastal and atmospheric variability is well known, which makes it an attractive choice for the application of Deep Learning to predict basin water renewal in sill fjords, in the context of the atmospheric and hydrographic setting of the Norwegian coast.

In this work, the prediction of deep water renewal in Byfjorden and the basin’s oxygen levels is investigated with deep learning techniques. After a statistical study of oxygen variability correlation with wind forcing along the Norwegian coast, we develop and test a model to predict renewals and fill gaps in Byfjorden’s oxygenatio record.

How to cite: Bettencourt, J.: Prediction of sill fjord basin water renewals and oxygen levels, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18627, 2024.

Understanding Phytoplankton community dynamics in response to environmental shifts is crucial for assessing the impact of climate change on marine biology. To this end, satellite observations offer a dataset spanning two decades, capturing diverse sea surface parameters, including temperature, ocean color, and surface height. Notably, ocean color data is processed to derive sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration, widely acknowledged as a reliable proxy for phytoplankton biomass. 

Lately, advances in ocean color observation allow us to describe the phytoplankton community structure in terms of groups (broad functional or taxonomic groups) or size classes. Although these advances provide more detailed information on phytoplankton diversity and structure, these datasets suffer from spatial and temporal coverage limitations due to strict quality control in the presence of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, sea ice, etc... As a result, studies examining phytoplankton trends over the past two decades and future projections rely on incomplete chlorophyll-a and ocean color data. Therefore this compromises the identification of consistent trends within phytoplankton datasets.

In this study, we address this issue using a deep-learning approach. Our method constructs an attention network that learns from the available satellite dataset of Chla and phytoplankton size classes images (weekly and one-degree-degraded spatial resolution) while assimilating information from gap-free sea surface physics data originating from satellite observations and assimilated numerical models). The primary objective is to estimate the phytoplankton dataset based on the knowledge of physical factors, while filling the gaps within this dataset

The trained deep-learning model allows us to discern patterns and correlations between chlorophyll concentration and the phytoplankton size classes on one hand, and the physics-based data on the other hand. From a phytoplankton weekly database spanning from 1997 to 2020, with 50% missing pixels, our approach demonstrates promising results in replicating chlorophyll concentration and accurately inferring phytoplankton size classes.

The methodology shows the potential of deep-learning for robust ecological applications but mainly lays the groundwork for future trend studies on phytoplankton communities.

How to cite: Ollier, L., El Hourany, R., and Levy, M.: Linking Satellite and physics-informed Data with Phytoplankton communities Using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18663, 2024.

4DVarNet algorithm is an AI based variational approach that performs spatiotemporal time-series interpolation. It has been used with success on Ocean Color satellite images to fill in the blank of missing data due to e.g., the satellites trajectories or the clouds covering. 4DVarNet has shown impressive interpolation performances compare to other classical approaches such as DInEOF.
We propose to show that 4DVarNet is a flexible model that learns global dynamics instead of local patterns, thus enabling it to interpolate different type of data, i.e., data from different spatio-temporal domain and/or representing different variables, using the same pre-trained model.

The core of our technique involves extrapolating the learned models to other, somewhat larger geographical areas, including the entire Mediterranean and other regions like the North Sea. We achieve this by segmenting larger areas into smaller and manageable sections, and then choosing a section to train the model. Finally the trained model is applied to each segment and seamlessly integrating the prediction results. This method ensures detailed and accurate coverage over extensive areas, significantly enhancing the predictive power of our models while maintaining low computational costs.

Our results demonstrate that this approach not only outperforms traditional methods in terms of accuracy but also provides a scalable solution, adaptable to various geographical contexts. By leveraging localized training and strategic extrapolation, we offer a robust framework for ocean monitoring, paving the way for advanced satellite image applications in diverse settings.

How to cite: Dorffer, C., Nguyen, T. T. N., Jourdin, F., and Fablet, R.: Spatial Generalization of 4DVarNet in ocean colour Remote Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18688, 2024.

The ICT+ project:” Transforming ocean surveying by the power of DL and statistical methods” hosted by UiT The Artic University of Norway, aims at employing machine learning techniques in improving and streamlining methods currently used in ocean surveying by private sector partners to the project, MultiConsult and Argeo. The tasks include detection and identification of µm (e.g. foraminifera, microplastics) to m (e.g. boulders, shipwrecks) sized objects and elements at and in the seabed in data that presently is processed manually by skilled workers, but ideally could be wholly or partially processed using an automated approach.

Here we present preliminary work and results related to application of the YOLO (You Only Look Once) algorithms in detection and identification of meio fauna (foraminifera) in - and macro (mollusc) fauna at the seabed. Both proxies are used in evaluation of the environmental state of the seabed. YOLO is a real-time object detection deep learning algorithm that efficiently identifies and locates objects in images or videos in a single pass through the neural network.

Presently the year on year growth or shrinkage of protected mollusc banks in northern Norwegian fjords is manually evaluated via video observation in seabed video sequences annually captured via remotely operated vehicles. The preliminary results suggest that upon moderate training the YOLO algorithm can identify presence/absence of mollusc bank formations in set video sequences, thus supporting and eventually minimizing the task of inspecting the video footage manually.      

Foraminifera are abundant marine meiofauna living in the water column or at and in the seabed. Foraminifera are utilized in research into both modern and past marine environments as they have high turnover rates and individual shells have high preservation potential. Foraminiferal shells are accumulated in the sediments and after sample processing, they subsequently can be manually detected and identified via microscope. This work is very labour-intensive and demands skilled expertise but suffers from errors by and bias of the individual expert.

Preliminary results show that a YOLO network, trained on ca 4100 individuals (20 subgroups; benthic calcareous foraminifera (n=19), Planktic foraminifera (n=1)) in 346 images have model performances of up to 0.96 mAP (mean average precision) when trained, validated and tested on the training set. These promising results will be tested on real world samples. This testing is complicated by real world samples containing many more foraminiferal species/groups that were not trained upon, overlapping or closely set specimens and presence of non-foraminiferal material (e.g. sediment grains, other meio-fauna or –flora, etc.). Thus, additional training with focus on set complicating aspects will likely be necessary and most recent result will be presented.

How to cite: Aagaard Sørensen, S., Myrvoll-Nielsen, E., Martinsen, I., Godtliebsen, F., Galata, S., Junttila, J., and Vassdal, T.: Detection and identification of environmental faunal proxies in digital images and video footage from northern Norwegian fjords and coastal waters using deep learning object detection algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18759, 2024.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, now in its sixth phase (CMIP6), is a global effort to project future climate scenarios on following certain shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). For the period 1950-2014, CMIP6 provides a historical model output. From 2015 future projections with four different SSP scenarios, viz. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585 are available. From 2015-2023, we also have reanalysis of the actual ocean and atmosphere variables in these years. From this data, it is observed that CMIP6 future projections of ocean variables have a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.22 psu in sea surface salinity, 1.24 °C in sea surface temperature, 2.23 m/s in the zonal ocean velocity component, 1.34 m/s in the meridional ocean velocity component. Similarly, the atmospheric variables have a RMSE of 1.34 °C in temperature at 2-meter height, 2.12 m/s in the zonal, and 1.321 m/s meridional wind component. Our goal is to develop an accurate method to correct this bias and provide updated future projections for scientific analysis. To this end, we developed a two phase deep neural network model that accepts monthly fields from the CMIP6 projections (all four SSP scenarios), and outputs a bias corrected field. In the first phase, a deep neural model, which we call as Atmospheric-Ocean Network 1 (AONet1) is used to obtain bias corrected fields for each of the four SSP separately. The AONet1 is trained and validated using the historical CMIP6 data (1950-2014) as input and ORAS5 and ERA5 data as the output (the bias corrected field). In the second phase, the four bias-corrected SSP fields are fed to AONet2 and the final bias corrected single field is produced. The AONet2 is trained and validated using future projection data from 2015-2021 as input and ORAS5 and ERA5 from the same period as output. The testing of the two phase model is performed for years 2022 and 2023, before bias corrected future fields are produced. Results are compared to the statistical EDCDF method using different Image Quality Assessment metrics such as Data structural similarity index measure (DSSIM), Multi-Scale SSIM, and Visual information fidelity. On test data, the RMSE after bias reduction using the two phase AONet model is 40% lower. Image assessment metric values surpassed the EDCDF approach as well.

How to cite: Pasula, A. and Subramani, D.: A two-phase Neural Model for CMIP6 bias correction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18857, 2024.

Physics-based coastal ocean models provide vital insights into local and regional coastal dynamics but require significant computational resources to solve numerically. In this work, we develop data-driven reduced order models (ROMs) using machine learning techniques to emulate a 2D flexible mesh hydrodynamic model of Øresund, the Straight between Denmark and Sweden, achieving orders of magnitude speedup while retaining good accuracy. This Øresund model has complex spatio-temporal dynamics driven by time-varying boundary conditions. Two different approaches to generate ROMs offline are developed and compared. Our objective is to assess the advantage of generating such models offline to enable real-time analysis in the online setting.

The first approach extracts patterns in space and time using principal component analysis and learn mappings from previous states and boundary conditions to future states using gradient boosting. The second approach employs Dynamic Mode Decomposition with control (DMDc) to account for boundary forcing. The reduced models are trained offline on a part of the available 12 months of 30-minute resolution snapshots of surface elevation, and u- and v-components of the depth-averaged currents. In both cases a very low number O(100) of latent space dimensions are necessary to get accurate results at the order of 2-4 cm RMSE compared to the full high-fidelity model.

The emulators provide state estimates online in seconds rather than hours, enabling new applications like uncertainty quantification, data assimilation and parameter optimization that require fast model evaluations. Further developments could look to condition the ROMs on a wider range of potential boundary forcings for scenario exploration. This demonstrates machine learning's potential for accelerating coastal simulations for real-time decision support and planning systems facing long-term change and uncertainty.

How to cite: Mariegaard, J. S., Larsen, E. S., and Engsig-Karup, A. P.: Fast data-driven reduced order models for emulating physics-based flexible mesh coastal-ocean models , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19104, 2024.

The ocean biological carbon pump, a significant set of processes in the global carbon cycle, drives the sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC) towards the deep ocean. Global estimates of POC fluxes and an improved understanding of how environmental factors influence organic ocean carbon transport can help quantify how much carbon is sequestered in the ocean and how this can change in different environmental conditions, in addition to improving global carbon and marine ecosystem models. POC fluxes can be derived from observations taken by a variety of in situ instruments such as sediment traps, 234-Thorium tracers and Underwater Vision Profilers. However, the manual and time-consuming nature of data collection leads to limitations of spatial data sparsity on a global scale, resulting in large estimate uncertainties in under-sampled regions.

This research takes an observation-driven approach with machine learning and statistical models trained to estimate POC fluxes on a global scale using the in situ observations and well-sampled environmental driver datasets, such as temperature and nutrient concentrations. This approach holds two main benefits: 1) the ability to fill observational gaps on both a spatial and temporal scale and 2) the opportunity to interpret the importance of each environmental factor for estimating POC fluxes, and therefore exposing their relationship to organic carbon transport processes. The models built include random forests, neural networks and Bayesian hierarchical models, where their global POC flux estimates, feature importance and model performances are studied and compared. Additionally, this research explores the use of data fusion methods to combine all three heterogeneous in situ POC flux data sources to achieve improved accuracy and better-informed inferences about organic carbon transport than what is possible using a single data source. By treating the heterogeneous data sources differently, accounting for their biases, and introducing domain knowledge into the models, our data fusion method can not only harness the information from all three data sources, but also gives insights into their key differences.

How to cite: Navaneethanathan, A., Cael, B., Luo, C., Challenor, P., Martin, A., and Leonelli, S.: Estimating global POC fluxes using ML and data fusion on heterogeneous and sparse in situ observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19157, 2024.

The Arctic region is undergoing unprecedented transformations due to Arctic amplification, warming at twice the global average rate. This warming has led to a drastic reduction in sea ice, with predictions of ice-free Arctic summers before 2050. Such profound changes signal a shift to a new climatic regime, posing significant risks to regional communities, industries, and ecosystems.

This research addresses the urgent need to understand the evolving Arctic environment by harnessing machine learning (ML) to analyse sparse oceanic data. Utilising nearly two decades of Ice Tethered Profilers (ITP) data, complemented by ship-based (U-DASH), and ARGO profiles, this study aims to investigate the structure and dynamics of the Arctic Ocean.

We fit a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to our observations, assigning each data point into a different cluster or class. Despite no spatial information being provided to the model, we find coherent classes emerge. We analyse the properties of each class, compare them with standard water masses from the literature, and look at decadal trends in properties such as oxygen saturation. This approach promises to enhance our understanding of Arctic water masses and their evolving role in a changing environment.

How to cite: Allemang, O.: Arctic Processes Under Ice: Structures in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20454, 2024.

Biogeochemical ocean models are usually based on two size classes for particulate organic matter: small classes (1-100 𝜇m) and large classes (100-5000 𝜇m). Based on the measurements of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration from UVP5 profiles and observations of environmental and ecosystem conditions we estimated an optimal number of size classes for POC that can be introduced in biogeochemical ocean models. 

We identified four size classes based on the correlation between POC concentration and environmental and ecosystem variables. It gives us information on the relationship between POC and surrounding temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration, nitrate, phosphate and oxygen levels as well as plankton functional types (PFTs). 

Further, we applied Machine Learning methods to reconstruct size classes of POC concentration and identify the most important drivers for each class. We showed that the concentration of POC smaller than 0.3 mm mostly depends on environmental characteristics while concentration of POC bigger than 0.3 mm strongly depends on PFTs.  

How to cite: Denvil-Sommer, A., Le Quere, C., Kiko, R., Buitenhuis, E., Racault, M.-F., and Lombard, F.: Size classification of particulate organic carbon concentration and its link to the ecosystem based on Machine Learning techniques., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20799, 2024.

Microfossils are important in climate analysis and in exploration of subsea energy resources. The abundance and distribution of species found in sediment cores provide valuable information, but the analysis is difficult and time consuming as it is based on manual work by human experts. It is also a challenge to have enough labelled data to train a standard deep learning classifier on microfossil images. We propose an efficient pipeline for processing and grouping fossils by species from microscope slides using self-supervised learning. First we show how to efficiently extract crops from whole slide images by adapting previously trained object detection algorithms. Second, we provide a comparison of a range of contrastive self-supervised learning methods to classify and identify microfossil from very few labels. We obtain excellent results with convolutional neural networks and vision transformers fine-tuned by self-supervision.

How to cite: Martinsen, I., Wade, D., Ricaud, B., and Godtliebsen, F.: A deep learning pipeline for automatic microfossil analysis and classification, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21554, 2024.

The Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is key to the regulation of carbon, heat, biological production, and sea level. However, the dynamics of the general circulation and its leading order controls remain poorly understood, in part because of the challenge of characterizing and tracking changes in ocean physics in complex models. This gap in understanding is especially problematic in the face of climate change. Here, we wish to understand changes in the dynamics of the Southern Ocean under climate change, specifically how bathymetric controls on the general circulation could impact the location of major currents and impact upwelling. We use a suite of CMIP models for our analysis. A physics-informed equation discovery framework guided by machine learning is used to partition and interpret dynamics is used to understand spatial structures, and a supervised learning framework that quantifies its uncertainty and provides explanations of its predictions is leveraged to track change. The method, called Tracking global Heating with Ocean Regimes (THOR). A region undergoing a profound shift is where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current intersects with bathymetry, for example, the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. We see major changes in areas associated with upwelling between the CMIP models, suggesting the changes in wind stress allow the control bathymetry has in the historical scenario to change. For example, we find that as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current shifts north under intensifying wind stress, when meeting the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. We note associated change in the regions where gyre circulation favors upwelling, with spatial distributions varying between models. Our efforts go towards a better understanding of what dynamics are driving changes, and could allow reduction of bias between models and decrease uncertainties in future projections.

How to cite: Sonnewald, M., Yik, W., Clare, M. C., and Lguensat, R.: Discovering Dominant Controls on Southern Ocean Dynamics Under Climate Change: New Knowledge Through Physics-Guided Machine Learning , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21905, 2024.

Conventional studies of subseasonal-to-seasonal sea ice variability across scales have relied upon computationally expensive physics-based models solving systems of differential equations. IceNet, a deep learning-based sea ice forecasting model under development since 2021, has proven competitive to such state-of-the-art physics-based models, capable of generating daily 25 km resolution forecasts of sea ice concentration across the Arctic and Antarctic at a fraction of the computational cost once trained. Yet, these IceNet forecasts leave room for improvement through three main weaknesses. First, the forecasts exhibit physically unrealistic spatial and temporal blurring characteristic of deep learning methods trained under mean loss objectives. Second, the use of 25 km scale OSISAF data renders local forecasts along coastal regions and in regions surrounding maritime vessels inconclusive. Third, the sole provision of sea ice concentration in forecasts leaves questions about other critical ice properties such as thickness unanswered. We present preliminary results addressing these three challenges, turning to deep generative models to capture forecast uncertainty and improve spatial sharpness; leveraging 3 and 6 km scale AMSR-2 sea ice products to improve spatial resolution; and incorporating auxiliary datasets, chiefly thickness, into the training and inference pipeline to produce multivariate forecasts of sea ice properties beyond simple sea ice concentration. We seek feedback for improvement and hope continued development of IceNet can help answer key scientific questions surrounding the state of sea ice in our changing polar climates.

How to cite: McDonald, A., Smith, J., Yatsyshin, P., Andersson, T., Bowler, E., van Zeeland, L., Ubald, B., Byrne, J., Pérez-Ortiz, M., Turner, R. E., and Hosking, J. S.: Pushing the Limits of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Sea Ice Forecasting with Deep Generative Modelling , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22070, 2024.

Estimating the seismic hazard in earthquake-prone regions, in order to assess the risk associated to nuclear facilities, must take into account a large number of uncertainties, and in particular our limited knowledge of the geology. And yet, we know that certain geological features can create site effects that considerably amplify earthquake ground motion. In this work, we provide a quantitative assessment of how largely can earthquake ground motion simulation benefit from deep learning approaches, quantifying the influence of geological heterogeneities on the spatio-temporal nature of the earthquake-induced site response. Two main frameworks are addressed: conditional generative approaches with diffusion models and neural operators. On one hand, generative adversarial learning and diffusions models are compared in a time-series super-resolution context [1]. The main task is to improve the outcome of 3D fault-to-site earthquake numerical simulations (accurate up to 5 Hz [2, 3]) at higher frequencies (5-30 Hz), by learning the low-to-high frequency mapping from seismograms recorded worldwide [1]. The generation is conditioned by the numerical simulation synthetic time-histories, in a one-to-many setup that enables site-specific probabilistic hazard assessment. On the other hand, the successful use of Factorized Fourier Neural Operator (F-FNO) to entirely replace cumbersome 3D elastodynamic numerical simulations is described [4], showing how this approach can pave the way to real-time large-scale digital twins of earthquake prone regions. The trained neural operator learns the relationship between 3D heterogeneous geologies and surface ground motions generated by the propagation of seismic wave through these geologies. The F-FNO is trained on the HEMEW-3D (https://github.com/lehmannfa/HEMEW3D/releases) database, comprising 30000 high-fidelity numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion through generic geologies, performed by employing the high-performance code SEM3D [4]. Next, a smaller database was built specifically for the Teil region (Ardèche, France), where a MW 4.9 moderate shallow earthquake occurred in November 2019 [4]. The F-FNO is then specialized on this database database with just 250 examples. Transfer learning improved the prediction error by 22 %. According to seismological Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) metrics, 91% of predictions have an excellent GoF for the phase (and 62% for the envelope). Ground motion intensity measurements are, on average, slightly underestimated.

[1] Gatti, F.; Clouteau, D. Towards Blending Physics-Based Numerical Simulations and Seismic Databases Using Generative Adversarial Network. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 2020, 372, 113421.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2020.113421.

[2] Touhami, S.; Gatti, F.; Lopez-Caballero, F.; Cottereau, R.; de Abreu Corrêa, L.;Aubry, L.; Clouteau, D. SEM3D: A 3D High-Fidelity Numerical Earthquake Sim-ulator for Broadband (0–10 Hz) Seismic Response Prediction at a Regional Scale.Geosciences 2022, 12 (3), 112. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12030112. https://github.com/sem3d/SEM

[3] Gatti, F.; Carvalho Paludo, L. D.; Svay, A.; Lopez-Caballero, F.-; Cottereau, R.;Clouteau, D. Investigation of the Earthquake Ground Motion Coherence in Het-erogeneous Non-Linear Soil Deposits. Procedia Engineering 2017, 199, 2354–2359.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.09.232.[4] Lehmann, F.; Gatti, F.; Bertin, M.; Clouteau, D. Machine Learning Opportunities to Conduct High-Fidelity Earthquake Simulations in Multi-Scale Heterogeneous Geology.Front. Earth Sci. 2022, 10, 1029160. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1029160.

[4] Lehmann, F.; Gatti, F.; Bertin, M.; Clouteau, D. Fourier Neural Operator Sur-rogate Model to Predict 3D Seismic Waves Propagation. arXiv April 20, 2023.http://arxiv.org/abs/2304.10242 (accessed 2023-04-21).

How to cite: Gatti, F., Lehmann, F., Gabrielidis, H., Bertin, M., Clouteau, D., and Vialle, S.: Deep learning generative strategies to enhance 3D physics-based seismic wave propagation: from diffusive super-resolution to 3D Fourier Neural Operators., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2443, 2024.

How to cite: Edwards, T., Turner, F., Rougier, J., and Rohmer, J. and the EU PROTECT project: Grand designs: quantifying many kinds of model uncertainty to improve projections of sea level rise , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2691, 2024.

Use of machine learning algorithms in climate simulations requires such algorithms to replicate certain aspects of the physics in general circulation models.  In this study, a neural network is used to mimic the behavior of one of the subgrid parameterization schemes used in global climate models, the nonorographic gravity wave scheme.  Use of a one-dimensional mechanistic model is advocated, allowing neural network hyperparameters to be chosen based on emergent features of the coupled system with minimal computational cost, and providing a testbed prior to coupling to a climate model. A climate model simulation, using the neural network in place of the existing parameterization scheme, is found to accurately generate a quasi-biennial oscillation of the tropical stratospheric winds, and correctly simulate the nonorographic gravity wave variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and stratospheric polar vortex variability. These internal sources of variability are essential for providing seasonal forecast skill, and the gravity wave forcing associated with them is reproduced without explicit training for these patterns.

How to cite: Hardiman, S., Scaife, A., van Niekerk, A., Prudden, R., Owen, A., Adams, S., Dunstan, T., Dunstone, N., and Madge, S.: Machine Learning for Nonorographic Gravity Waves in a Climate Model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3520, 2024.

Predicting coastal tsunami impact requires the computation of inundation metrics such as maximum inundation height or momentum flux at all locations of interest. The high computational cost of inundation modelling, in both long term tsunami hazard assessment and urgent tsunami computing, comes from two major factors: (1) the high number of simulations needed to capture the source uncertainty and (2) the need to solve the nonlinear shallow water equations on high-resolution grids. We seek to mitigate the second of these factors using machine learning. The offshore tsunami wave is far cheaper to calculate than the full inundation map, and an emulator able to predict an inundation map with acceptable accuracy from simulated offshore wave height time-series would allow both more rapid hazard estimates and the processing of greater numbers of scenarios. The procedure would necessarily be specific to one stretch of coastline and a complete numerical simulation is needed for each member of the training set. Success of an inundation emulator would demand an acceptable reduction in time-to-solution, a modest number of training scenarios, an acceptable accuracy in inundation predictions, and good performance for high impact, low probability, scenarios. We have developed a convolutional encoder-decoder based neural network and applied it to a dataset of high-resolution inundation simulations for the Bay of Catania in Sicily, calculated for almost 28000 subduction earthquake scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea. We demonstrate encouraging performance in this case study for relatively small training sets (of the order of several hundred scenarios) provided that appropriate choices are made in the setting of model parameters, the loss function, and training sets. Scenarios with severe inundation need to be very well represented in the training sets for the ML-models to perform sufficiently well for the most tsunamigenic earthquakes. The importance of regularization and model parameter choices increases as the size of the training sets decrease.

How to cite: Gibbons, S. J., Briseid Storrøsten, E., Ramalingam, N., Lorito, S., Volpe, M., Sánchez-Linares, C., and Løvholt, F.: Emulators for Predicting Tsunami Inundation Maps at High Resolution, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5048, 2024.

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have become state-of-the-art tools in large-scale climate impact and adaptation assessments. Yet, these combinations of large-scale spatial data frameworks and plant growth models have limitations in the volume of scenarios they can address due to computational demand and complex software structures. Emulators mimicking such models have therefore become an attractive option to produce reasonable predictions of GGCMs’ crop productivity estimates at much lower computational costs. However, such emulators’ flexibility is thus far typically limited in terms of crop management flexibility and spatial resolutions among others. Here we present a new emulator pipeline CROp model Machine learning Emulator Suite (CROMES) that serves for processing climate features from netCDF input files, combining these with site-specific features (soil, topography), and crop management specifications (planting dates, cultivars, irrigation) to train machine learning emulators and subsequently produce predictions. Presently built around the GGCM EPIC-IIASA and employing a boosting algorithm, CROMES is capable of producing predictions for EPIC-IIASA’s crop yield estimates with high accuracy and very high computational efficiency. Predictions require for a first used climate dataset about 45 min and 10 min for any subsequent scenario based on the same climate forcing in a single thread compared to approx. 14h for a GGCM simulation on the same system.

Prediction accuracy is highest if modeling the case when crops receive sufficient nutrients and are consequently most sensitive to climate. When training an emulator on crop model simulations for rainfed maize and a single global climate model (GCM), the yield prediction accuracy for out-of-bag GCMs is R2=0.93-0.97, RMSE=0.5-0.7, and rRMSE=8-10% in space and time. Globally, the best agreement between predictions and crop model simulations occurs in (sub-)tropical regions, the poorest is in cold, arid climates where both growing season length and water availability limit crop growth. The performance slightly deteriorates if fertilizer supply is considered, more so at low levels of nutrient inputs than at the higher end.

Importantly, emulators produced by CROMES are virtually scale-free as all training samples, i.e., pixels, are pooled and hence treated as individual locations solely based on features provided without geo-referencing. This allows for applications on increasingly available high-resolution climate datasets or in regional studies for which more granular data may be available than at global scales. Using climate features based on crop growing seasons and cardinal growth stages enables also adaptation studies including growing season and cultivar shifts. We expect CROMES to facilitate explorations of comprehensive climate projection ensembles, studies of dynamic climate adaptation scenarios, and cross-scale impact and adaptation assessments.

How to cite: Folberth, C., Baklanov, A., Khabarov, N., Oberleitner, T., Balkovic, J., and Skalsky, R.: CROMES - A fast and efficient machine learning emulator pipeline for gridded crop models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5852, 2024.

Simulating nitrate fate and transport in freshwater is an essential part in water quality management. Numerical and data-driven models have been used for it. The numerical model SWAT simulates daily nitrate loads using simulated flow rate. Data-driven models are more flexible compared to SWAT as they can simulate nitrate load and flow rate independently. The objective of this work was evaluating the performance of SWAT and a deep learning model in terms of nutrient loads in cases when deep learning model is used in (a) simulating flow rate and nitrate concentration independently and (b) simulating both flow rate and nitrate concentration. The deep learning model was built using long-short-term-memory and three-dimensional convolutional networks. The input data, weather data and image data including leaf area index and land use, were acquired at the Tuckahoe Creek watershed in Maryland, United States. The SWAT model was calibrated with data over the training period (2014-2017) and validated with data over the testing period (2019) to simulate flow rate and nitrate load. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.31 and 0.40 for flow rate and -0.26 and -0.18 for the nitrate load over training and testing periods, respectively. Three data-driven modeling scenarios were generated for nitrate load. Scenario 1 included the flow rate observation and nitrate concentration simulation, scenario 2 included the flow rate simulation and nitrate concentration observation, and scenario 3 included the flow rate and nitrate concentration simulations. The deep learning model outperformed SWAT in all three scenarios with NSE from 0.49 to 0.58 over the training period and from 0.28 to 0.80 over the testing period. Scenario 1 showed the best results for nitrate load. The performance difference between SWAT and the deep learning model was most noticeable in fall and winter seasons. The deep learning modeling can be an efficient alternative to numerical watershed-scale models when the regular high frequency data collection is provided.

How to cite: Lee, J., Kim, D., Hong, S., Yun, D., Kwon, D., Hill, R., Pachepsky, Y., Gao, F., Zhang, X., Lee, S., and Cho, K.: Comparison of SWAT and a deep learning model in nitrate load simulation at the Tuckahoe creek watershed in the United States, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6622, 2024.

Interfacing challenges continue to impede the implementation of neural network-based parameterizations into numerical models of the atmosphere, particularly those written in Fortran. In this study, we leverage a specialized interfacing tool to successfully implement a neural network-based parameterization for both deep and shallow convection within the General Circulation Model, ARPEGE-Climat. Our primary objective is to not only evaluate the performance of this data-driven parameterization but also assess the numerical stability of ARPEGE-Climat when coupled with a convection parameterization trained on data from a different high-resolution model, namely SPCAM 5. 

The performance evaluation encompasses both offline and online assessments of the data-driven parameterization within this framework. The data-driven parameterization for convection is designed using a multi-fidelity approach and is adaptable for use in a stochastic configuration. Challenges associated with this approach include ensuring consistency between variables in ARPEGE-Climat and the parameterization based on data from SPCAM 5, as well as managing disparities in geometry (e.g., horizontal and vertical resolutions), which are crucial factors affecting the intermodel parameterization transferability.

How to cite: Balogh, B., Saint-Martin, D., Geoffroy, O., Bhouri, M. A., and Gentine, P.: Assessment of ARPEGE-Climat using a neural network convection parameterization based upon data from SPCAM 5, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7455, 2024.

Urban warming in cities is increasingly exacerbated by the escalation of more frequent and severe heat extremes. Effectively mitigating overheating necessitates the adoption of a comprehensive, whole-system approach that integrates various heat mitigation measures to generate rapid and sustained efficacy in mitigation efforts. However, there remains a significant gap in the exploration of how to quantify the efficacy of mitigation strategies at the city-scale.

We address this research question by leveraging mesoscale Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models alongside machine-learning (ML) techniques. As a showcase, ML models have been established for Zurich and Basel, Switzerland, utilizing seven WRF-output-based features, including shortwave downward radiation (SWDNB), hour of the day (HOUR), zenith angle (COSZEN), rain mix ratio (QRAIN), longwave downward radiation (LWDNB), canopy water content (CANWAT), and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). Impressively, the resultant median R² values for T2 (2m temperature) predictions during heatwave and non-heatwave periods are notably high at 0.94 and 0.91 respectively.

Within the perspective of the whole-system approach, we quantify the impacts of reducing shortwave radiation absorption at ground surfaces, a potential result of a combination of both shading and reflective coating-based mitigation measures, through the utilization of ML models. Remarkably, a 5% reduction in the absorption of radiation at ground surfaces in Zurich could lead to a reduction in T2 by as much as 3.5 °C in the city center. During a heatwave in Basel, the potential for cooling is even more pronounced, with temperature decreases of up to 5 °C. These case studies in Zurich and Basel underscore the efficacy of utilizing WRF feature-trained ML models to quantify heat mitigation strategies at the city-scale.

How to cite: Zhao, Y., Wang, Z., Strebel, D., and Carmeliet, J.: Blending machine-learning and mesoscale numerical weather prediction models to quantify city-scale heat mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7581, 2024.

Deep learning models emerged as viable alternatives to rapid and accurate flood mapping, overcoming the computational burden of numerical methods. In particular, hydraulic-based graph neural networks present a promising avenue, offering enhanced transferability to domains not used for the model training. These models exploit the analogy between finite-volume methods and graph neural networks to describe how water moves in space and time across neighbouring cells. However, existing models face limitations, having been exclusively tested on regular meshes and necessitating initial conditions from numerical solvers. This study proposes an extension of hydraulic-based graph neural networks to accommodate time-varying boundary conditions, showcasing its efficacy on irregular meshes. For this, we employ multi-scale methods that jointly model the flood at different scales. To remove the necessity of initial conditions, we leverage ghost cells that enforce the solutions at the boundaries. Our approach is validated on a dataset featuring irregular meshes, diverse topographies, and varying input hydrograph discharges. Results highlight the model's capacity to replicate flood dynamics across unseen scenarios, without any input from the numerical model, emphasizing its potential for realistic case studies.

How to cite: Bentivoglio, R., Isufi, E., Jonkman, S. N., and Taormina, R.: Multi-scale hydraulic-based graph neural networks: generalizing spatial flood mapping to irregular meshes and time-varying boundary condition, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7681, 2024.

Atmospheric general circulation models include two main distinct components: the dynamical one solves the Navier-Stokes equations to provide a mathematical representation of atmospheric movements while the physical one includes parameterizations representing small-scale phenomena such as turbulence and convection (Balaji et al., 2022). However, computational demands of the parameterizations limit the numerical efficiency of the models. The burgeoning field of machine learning techniques opens new horizons by producing accurate, robust and fast emulators of parts of a climate model. In particular, they can reliably reproduce physical processes, thus providing an efficient alternative to traditional process representation. Indeed, some pioneering studies (Gentine et al., 2018; Rasp et al., 2018) have shown that these emulators can replace one or more parameterizations that are computationally expensive and so, have the potential to enhance numerical efficiency.

Our research work aligns with these perspectives, since it involves exploiting the potential of developing an emulator of the physical parameterizations of the IPSL climate model, and more specifically of the ICOLMDZOR atmospheric model (for DYNAMICO, the dynamic solver using an icosahedral grid - LMDZ, the atmospheric component - ORCHIDEE, the surface component). The emulator could improve performance, as currently almost half of the total computing time is given to the physical part of the model.

We have developed two initial offline emulators of the physical parameterizations of our standard model, in an idealized aquaplanet configuration, to reproduce profiles of tendencies of the key variables - zonal wind, meridional wind, temperature, humidity and water tracers - for each atmospheric column. The results of these emulators, based on a dense neural network or a convolutional neural network, have begun to show their potential for use, since we easily obtain good performances in terms of the mean of the predicted tendencies. Nevertheless, their variability is not well captured, and the variance is underestimated, posing challenges for our application. A study of physical processes has revealed that turbulence was at the root of the problem. Knowing how turbulence is parameterized in the model, we show that incorporating physical knowledge through latent variables as predictors into the learning process, leading to a significant improvement of the variability.

Future plans involve an online physics emulator, coupled with the atmospheric model to provide a better assessment of the learning process (Yuval et al., 2021).

How to cite: Crossouard, S., Kageyama, M., Vrac, M., Dubos, T., Thao, S., and Meurdesoif, Y.: Contribution of latent variables to emulate the physics of the IPSL model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10087, 2024.

Sea ice plays an essential role in global ocean circulation and in regulating Earth's climate and weather, and melt ponds that form on the ice have a profound impact on the Arctic's climate by altering the ice albedo. Melt pond evolution is complex, sub grid scale and poorly understood - and melt ponds are represented in sea ice models as parametrisations. Parametrisations of these physical processes are based on a number of assumptions and can include many uncertain parameters that have a substantial effect on the simulated evolution of the melt ponds. 

We have shown, using Sobol sensitivity analysis and through investigating perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), that a state-of-the-art sea ice column model, Icepack, demonstrates substantial sensitivity to its uncertain melt pond parameters. These PPEs demonstrate that perturbing melt pond parameters (within known ranges of uncertainty) cause predicted sea ice thickness over the Arctic Ocean to differ by many metres after only a decade of simulation. Understanding the sources of uncertainty, improving parametrisations and fine tuning the parameters is a paramount, but usually very complex and difficult task. Given this uncertainty, we propose to replace the sub grid scale melt pond parametrisation (MPP) in Icepack with a machine learning emulator. 

Building and replacing the MPP with a machine learning emulator has been done in two broad steps that contain multiple computational challenges. The first is generating a melt pond emulator using 'perfect' or 'model' data. Here we demonstrate a proof of concept and show how we achieve numerically stable simulations of Icepack when embedding an emulator in place of the MPP - with Icepack running stably for the whole length of the simulations (over a decade) across the Arctic. 

Secondly, we develop offline an emulator from observational data that faithfully predicts observed sea ice albedo and melt pond fraction given climatological input variables. Embedding an observational emulator can require different challenges as compared to using model data, such as not all variables needed by the host model being observable/observed for an emulator to predict. We discuss how we achieve online simulations interfacing this emulator with the Icepack model.

Our focus on using column models ensures that our observational emulator of sea ice albedo and melt pond fraction can readily be used in sea ice models around the world, irrespective of grid resolutions and mesh specifications, and offers one approach for creating general emulators that can be used by many climate models. 

How to cite: Driscoll, S., Carrassi, A., Brajard, J., Bertino, L., Bocquet, M., Olason, E., and Lawless, A.: Replacing parametrisations of melt ponds on sea ice with machine learning emulators, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10749, 2024.

Machine learning (ML) models have become popular in the Earth Sciences for improving predictions based on observations. Beyond pure prediction, though, ML has a large potential to create surrogates that emulate complex numerical simulation models, considerably reducing run time, hence facilitating their analysis.

The behaviour of eco-geomorphological systems is often examined using minimal models, simple equation-based expressions derived from expert knowledge. From them, one can identify complex system characteristics such as equilibria, tipping points, and transients. However, model formulation is largely subjective, thus disputable. Here, we propose an alternative approach where a ML surrogate of a high-fidelity numerical model is used instead, conserving suitability for analysis while incorporating the higher-order physics of its parent model. The complexities of developing such an ML surrogate for understanding the co-evolution of vegetation, hydrology, and geomorphology on a geological time scale are presented, highlighting the potential of this approach to capture novel, data-driven scientific insights.

To obtain the surrogate, the ML models were trained on a data set simulating a coupled hydrological-vegetation-soil system. The rate of change of the two variables describing the system, soil depth and biomass, was used as output, taking their value at the previous time step and the pre-defined grazing pressure as inputs. Two popular ML methods, random forest (RF) and fully connected neural network (NN), were used. As proof of concept and to configure the model setup, we first trained the ML models on the output of the minimal model described in [1], comparing the ML responses at gridded inputs with the derivative values predicted by the minimal model. While RF required less tuning to achieve competitive results, a relative root mean squared error (rRMSE) of 5.8% and 0.04% for biomass and soil depth respectively, NN produced better-behaved outcome, reaching a rRMSE of 2.2% and 0.01%. Using the same setup, the ML surrogates were trained on a high-resolution numerical model describing the same system. The study of the response from this surrogate provided a more accurate description of the dynamics and equilibria of the hillslope ecosystem, depicting, for example, a much more complex process of hillslope desertification than captured by the minimal model.

It is thus concluded that the use of ML models instead of expert-based minimal models may lead to considerably different findings, where ML models have the advantage that they directly rely on system functioning embedded in their parent numerical simulation model.

How to cite: Pomarol Moya, O., Karssenberg, D., Immerzeel, W., Nussbaum, M., and Mehrkanoon, S.: Understanding geoscientific system behaviour from machine learning surrogates, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11880, 2024.

Artificial intelligence and deep learning are currently reshaping numerical simulation frameworks by introducing new modeling capabilities. These frameworks are extensively investigated in the context of model correction and parameterization where they demonstrate great potential and often outperform traditional physical models. Most of these efforts in defining hybrid dynamical systems follow offline learning strategies in which the neural parameterization (called here sub-model) is trained to output an ideal correction. Yet, these hybrid models can face hard limitations when defining what should be a relevant sub-model response that would translate into a good forecasting performance. End-to-end learning schemes, also referred to as online learning, could address such a shortcoming by allowing the deep learning sub-models to train on historical data. However, defining end-to-end training schemes for the calibration of neural sub-models in hybrid systems requires working with an optimization problem that involves the solver of the physical equations. Online learning methodologies thus require the numerical model to be differentiable, which is not the case for most modeling systems. To overcome this difficulty and bypass the differentiability challenge of physical models, we present an efficient and practical online learning approach for hybrid systems. The method, called EGA for Euler Gradient Approximation, assumes an additive neural correction to the physical model, and an explicit Euler approximation of the gradients. We demonstrate that the EGA converges to the exact gradients in the limit of infinitely small time steps. Numerical experiments are performed on various case studies, including prototypical ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Results show significant improvements over offline learning, highlighting the potential of end-to-end online learning for hybrid modeling.

How to cite: Ouala, S., Chapron, B., Collard, F., Gaultier, L., and Fablet, R.: End-to-end Learning in Hybrid Modeling Systems: How to Deal with Backpropagation Through Numerical Solvers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14744, 2024.

How to cite: Prasad, A., Merkouriadi, I., and Nummelin, A.: Exploring data-driven emulators for snow on sea ice , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14957, 2024.

The Machine Learning Estimator for Ground Shaking Maps (MLESmaps) harnesses the ground shaking inference capability of Machine Learning (ML) models trained on physics-informed earthquake simulations. It infers intensity measures, such as RotD50, seconds after a significant earthquake has occurred given its magnitude and location. 

Our methodology incorporates both offline and online phases in a comprehensive workflow. It begins with the generation of a synthetic training data set, progresses through the extraction of predictor characteristics, proceeds to the validation and learning stages, and yields a learned inference model. 

MLESmap results can complement empirical Ground Motion Models (GMMs), in particular in data-poor areas, to assess post-earthquake hazards rapidly and accurately, potentially improving disaster response in earthquake-prone regions. Learned models incorporate physical features such as directivity, topography, or resonance at a speed comparable to that of the empirical GMMs. 

In this work, we present an overview of the MLESmap methodology and its application to two distinct study areas: southern California and southern Iceland

How to cite: Monterrubio-Velasco, M., Blanco, R., Callaghan, S., Bhihe, C., Pienkowska, M., Ejarque, J., and de la Puente, J.: Machine Learning Estimator for Ground-Shaking maps, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15914, 2024.

The combination of Machine Learning (ML) with geoscientific models is an active area of research with a wide variety of applications. A key practical question for those models is to define how high level languages ML components can be encoded and maintained into pre-existing legacy solvers, written in low level abstraction languages (as Fortran). We address this question through the strategy of creating pipes between a geoscientific code and ML components executed in their own separate scripts. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to easily share the inference models within the community without keeping them bound to one code with its specific numerical methods. Here, we chose to focus on OASIS (https://oasis.cerfacs.fr/en/), which is a Fortran coupling library that performs field exchanges between coupled executables. It is commonly used in the numerical geoscientific community to couple different codes and assemble earth-system models. Last releases of OASIS provided C and Python APIs, which enable coupling between non-homogeneously written codes. We seek to take advantage of those new features and the presence of OASIS in the community codes, and propose a Python library (named Eophis) that facilitates the deployment of inference models for coupled execution. Basically, Eophis allows to: (i) wrap an OASIS interface to exchange data with a coupled earth-system code, (ii) wrap inference models into a simple in/out interface, and (iii) emulate time evolution to synchronize connexions between earth-system and models. We set up a demonstration case with the European numerical code NEMO in which the pre-existing OASIS interface has been slightly modified. A forced global ocean model simulation is performed with regular exchanges of 2D and 3D fields with Eophis. Received data are then sent to inference models that are not implemented in NEMO. Performances of the solution will finally be assessed with references.

How to cite: Barge, A. and Le Sommer, J.: Online deployment of pre-trained machine learning components within Earth System models via OASIS, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16148, 2024.

Neural differential equations (NDEs) provide a powerful and general framework for interfacing machine learning with numerical modeling. However, constraining NDE solutions to obey known physical priors, such as conservation laws or restrictions on the allowed state of the system, has been a challenging problem in general. We present stabilized NDEs (SNDEs) [1], the first method for imposing arbitrary explicit constraints in NDE models. Alongside robust theoretical guarantees, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SNDEs across a variety of settings and using diverse classes of constraints. In particular, SNDEs exhibit vastly improved generalization and stability compared to unconstrained baselines. Building on this work, we also present constrained NDEs (CNDEs), a novel and complementary method with fewer hyperparameters and stricter constraints. We compare and contrast the two methods, highlighting their relative merits and offering an intuitive guide to choosing the best method for a given application.

[1] Alistair White, Niki Kilbertus, Maximilian Gelbrecht, Niklas Boers. Stabilized neural differential equations for learning dynamics with explicit constraints. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2023.

How to cite: White, A., Kilbertus, N., Gelbrecht, M., and Boers, N.: Two Methods for Constraining Neural Differential Equations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16149, 2024.

Across geoscience, numerical models are used for understanding, experimentation, and prediction of complex systems. Many of these models are computationally intensive and involve sub-models for certain processes, often known as parameterisations. Such parameterisations may capture unresolved sub-grid processes, such as turbulence, or represent fast-moving dynamics, such as gravity waves, or provide a combination of the two, such as microphysics schemes.

Recently there has been significant interest in incorporating machine learning (ML) methods
into these parameterisations. Two of the main drivers are the emulation of computationally intensive processes, thereby reducing computational resources required, and the development of data-driven parameterisation schemes that could improve accuracy through capturing ‘additional physics’.

Integrating ML sub-models in the context of numerical modelling brings a number of challenges, some of which are scientific, others computational. For example, many numerical models are written in Fortran, whilst the majority of machine learning is conducted using Python-based frameworks such as PyTorch that provide advanced ML modelling capabilities. As such there is a need to leverage ML models developed externally to Fortran, rather than the error-prone approach of writing neural networks directly in Fortran, missing the benefits of highly-developed libraries.

Interoperation of the two languages requires care, and increases the burden on researchers and developers. To reduce these barriers we have developed the open-source FTorch library [1] for coupling PyTorch models to Fortran. The library is designed to streamline the development process, offering a Fortran interface mimicking the style of the Python library whilst abstracting away the complex details of interoperability to provide a computationally efficient interface.

A significant benefit of this approach is that it enables inference to be performed on either CPU or GPU, enabling deployment on a variety of architectures with low programmer effort. We will report on the performance characteristics of our approach, both in the CPU and GPU settings and include a comparison with alternative approaches.

This approach has been deployed on two relevant case studies in the geoscience context: a gravity-wave parameterisation in an intermediate complexity atmospheric model (MiMA) based on Espinosa et al. [2], and a convection parameterisation in a GCM (CAM/CESM) based on Yuval et al. [3]. We will report on these applications and lessons learned from their development. 

[1] FTorch https://github.com/Cambridge-ICCS/FTorch
[2] Espinosa et al., Machine Learning Gravity Wave Parameterization Generalizes to Capture the QBO and Response to Increased CO2, GRL 2022 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098174
[3] Yuval et al., Use of Neural Networks for Stable, Accurate and Physically Consistent Parameterization of Subgrid Atmospheric Processes With Good Performance at Reduced Precision, GRL 2021 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091363

How to cite: Orchard, D., Kasoar, E., Atkinson, J., Meltzer, T., Clifford, S., and Elafrou, A.: FTorch - lowering the technical barrier of incorporating ML into Fortran models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17852, 2024.

Physics-based simulations of earthquake ground motions prove invaluable, particularly in regions where strong ground motion recordings remain scarce. However, the computational demands associated with these simulations limit their applicability in tasks that necessitate large-scale computations of a wide range of possible earthquake scenarios, such as those required in physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. To address this challenge, we propose a neural-network approach that enables the rapid computation of earthquake ground motions in the spectral domain, alleviating a significant portion of the computational burden. To illustrate our approach, we generate a database of ground motion simulations in the San Francisco Bay Area using AxiSEM3D, a 3D seismic wave simulator. The database includes 30 double-couple sources with varying depths and horizontal locations. Our simulations explicitly incorporate the effects of topography and viscoelastic attenuation and are accurate up to frequencies of 0.5 Hz. Preliminary results demonstrate that the trained neural network almost instantaneously produces estimates of peak ground displacements as well as displacement waveforms in the spectral domain that align closely with those obtained from the wave propagation simulations. Our approach also extends to predicting ground motions for ‘unsimulated’ source locations, ultimately providing a comprehensive resolution of the source space in our chosen physical domain. This advancement paves the way for a cost-effective simulation of numerous seismic sources, and enhances the feasibility of physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. 

How to cite: Ramadan, F., Fry, B., and Nissen-Meyer, T.: Rapid Computation of Physics-Based Ground Motions in the Spectral Domain using Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18444, 2024.

How to cite: Montagna, C. P., Garg, D., Allegra, M., Cannavò, F., Currenti, G., Bruni, R., and Papale, P.: A digital twin for volcanic deformation merging 3D numerical simulations and AI, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19255, 2024.

Non-linear, dynamic patterns are the rule rather than the exception in ecosystems. Predicting such patterns would allow an improved understanding of energy and nutrient flows in such systems. The Scientific Machine Learning approach Universal Differential Equation (UDE) by Rackauckas et al. (2020) tries to extract the underlying dynamical relations of state variables directly from their time series in combination with some knowledge on the dynamics of the system. This approach makes this kind of tool a promising approach to support classical modeling when precise knowledge of dynamical relationships is lacking, but measurement data of the phenomenon to be modeled is available.

We applied the UDE approach to a 22-year data set of the southern Baltic Sea coast, which constituted six different phytoplankton bloom types. The data set contained the state variables chlorophyll and different dissolved and total nutrients. We learned the chlorophyll:nutrient interactions from the data with additional forcing of external temperature, salinity and light attenuation dynamics as drivers. We used a neural network as a universal function approximator that provided time series of the state variables and their derivatives.

Finally, we recovered algebraic relationships between the variables chlorophyll, dissolved and total nutrients and the external drivers temperature, salinity and light attenuation using Sparse Identification of nonlinear Dynamics (SinDy) by Brunton et al. (2016).

The gained algebraic relationships differed in their importance of the different state variables and drivers for the six phytoplankton bloom types in accordance with general mechanisms reported in literature for the southern Baltic Sea coast. Our approach may be a viable option to guide ecosystem management decisions based on those algebraic relationships.

Rackauckas et al. (2020), arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.04385.

Brunton et al. (2016), PNAS 113.15: 3932-3937.

How to cite: Nieters, P., Berthold, M., and Vortmeyer-Kley, R.: Learning phytoplankton bloom patterns - A long and rocky road from data to equations , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19352, 2024.

Seismology has witnessed significant advancements in recent years with the application of deep
learning methods to address a broad range of problems. These techniques have demonstrated their
remarkable ability to effectively extract statistical properties from extensive datasets, surpassing the
capabilities of traditional approaches to an extent. In this study, we present SAIPy, an open-source
Python package specifically developed for fast data processing by implementing deep learning.
SAIPy offers solutions for multiple seismological tasks, including earthquake detection, magnitude
estimation, seismic phase picking, and polarity identification. We introduce upgraded versions
of previously published models such as CREIME_RT capable of identifying earthquakes with an
accuracy above 99.8% and a root mean squared error of 0.38 unit in magnitude estimation. These
upgraded models outperform state-of-the-art approaches like the Vision Transformer network. SAIPy
provides an API that simplifies the integration of these advanced models, including CREIME_RT,
DynaPicker_v2, and PolarCAP, along with benchmark datasets. The package has the potential to be
used for real-time earthquake monitoring to enable timely actions to mitigate the impact of seismic
events.

How to cite: Srivastava, N., Li, W., Chakraborty, M., Cartaya, C. Q., Köhler, J., Faber, J., and Rümpker, G.: SAIPy: A Python Package for single station Earthquake Monitoring using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19502, 2024.

While forecasting of climate and earth system processes has long been a task for numerical models, the rapid development of deep learning applications has recently brought forth competitive AI systems for weather prediction. Earth system models (ESMs), even though being an integral part of numerical weather prediction have not yet caught that same attention. ESMs forecast water, carbon and energy fluxes and in the coupling with an atmospheric model, provide boundary and initial conditions. We set up a comparison of different deep learning approaches for improving short-term forecasts of land surface and ecosystem states on a regional scale. Using simulations from the numerical model and combining them with observations, we will partially emulate an existing land surface scheme, conduct a probabilistic forecasts of core ecosystem processes and determine forecast horizons for all variables.

How to cite: Wesselkamp, M., Chantry, M., Kalweit, M., Pinnington, E., Choulga, M., Boedecker, J., Dormann, C., Pappenberger, F., and Balsamo, G.: Partial land surface emulator forecasts ecosystem states at verified horizons, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20863, 2024.

Thanks to the recent progress in numerical methods, the application fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning methods (ML) are growing at a very fast pace. The EURAD (European Joint Programme on Radioactive Waste Management) community has recently started using ML for a) acceleration of numerical simulations, b) improvement of multiscale and multiphysics couplings efficiency, c) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. A number of case studies indicate that use of ML based approaches leads to overall acceleration of geochemical and reactive transport simulations from one to four orders of magnitude. The achieved speed-up depends on the chemical system, simulation code, problem formulation and the research question to be answered. Within EURAD-DONUT (Development and Improvement Of Numerical methods and Tools for modelling coupled processes), a benchmark is on-going to coordinate the relevant activities and to test a variety of ML techniques for geochemistry and reactive transport simulations in the framework of radioactive waste disposal. It aims at benchmarking several widely used geochemical codes, at generating high-quality geochemical data for training/validation of existing/new methodologies, and at providing basic guidelines about the benefits, drawbacks, and current limitations of using ML techniques.

A joint effort has resulted in the definition of benchmarks of which one is presented here. The benchmark system is relevant to the sorption of U in claystone formations (e.g. Callovo-Oxfordian, Opalinus or Boom clay). Regarding the chemical complexity, a system containing Na-Cl-U-H-O is considered as the base case, and a more complex system with the addition of calcium and carbonate (CO2) to change aqueous speciation of U. Parameters of interest, among others, are the resulting concentrations of U sorbed on edges (surface complexes), of U on ion exchange sites, and the amount of metaSchoepite, with the resulting Kd’s. Following aspects are discussed: (i) Streamline the production of high-quality consistent training datasets, using the most popular geochemical solvers (PHREEQC, ORCHESTRA and GEMS). (ii) The use of different methods (e.g. Deep Neural Networks, Polynomial Chaos Expansion, Gaussian Processes, Active Learning, and other techniques to learn from the generated data. (iii) Setup appropriate metrics for the critical evaluation of the accuracy of ML models. (iv) Testing the accuracy of predictions for geochemical and reactive transport calculations. 

How to cite: Laloy, E. and Montoya, V. and the EURAD-DONUT Team: Machine learning based metamodels for geochemical calculations in reactive transport models: Benchmark within the EURAD Joint Project, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21545, 2024.

Despite efforts to obtain consistent results, the prediction of patterns in the behavior of geophysical fields still faces many uncertainties. However, these analyses are important for studying the effects of human action on the environment and the effects reflected in climate change. There is much evidence that Multifractals are capable of describing intermittent behavior and statistical data of all orders and over a wide range of scales. Therefore, this work consists of using the multifractal framework to analyze recent precipitation projection data in France, verifying the evolution of its parameters over a relatively long period of time (from 1951 to 2100) and over space, using 12 points on French territory with a resolution of 2.8º x 2.8º. For this, the Double Trace Moment technique was applied to determine the mean intermittency codimensions, the multifractality indexes and the maximum probability singularities. These results were compared to the article by J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 340 (2008) to verify if projections remained consistent with changes in data and economic scenarios. Despite the differences found in the range of parameter values ​​and scaling behavior, recent data also indicated an increase in intermittency over time and presented spatial behavior similar to old projections, which reinforces the expectation of an increase in precipitation extremes in the coming decades.

How to cite: Dias Kovalczuk, P. H., Schertzer, D., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Multifractal analysis of recent precipitation projections in the context of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-444, 2024.

Precipitation nowcasting, referring to short-term forecasting ahead for 0 to 6 hours, is an important aspect of many urban meteorological and hydrological studies. This is due to the fact that reliable nowcasting can serve as an early warning of massive flooding and a guide for water-related risk management, making it highly significant in urban areas from a socio-economic perspective. Precipitation exhibits extreme variability over a wide range of space-time scales, so nowcasting is essentially a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting. Convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) models are frequently used to capture the spatiotemporal correlation, but they often struggle with an issue that produces blurry predictions. Therefore, generative adversarial network (GAN) architecture is employed to achieve more detailed and realistic predictions. The framework of universal multifractal (UM) with only three scale-independent parameters (α, C₁, H) is also introduced in the deep learning model to characterize the extreme variability of precipitation. The developed hybrid approach using stochastic models physically based on the cascade paradigm ensures that intermittency is directly taken into account, including in the generation of uncertainty. In addition to the common evaluating metrics, like mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), critical success index (CSI), probability of detection (POD), power spectral density (PSD) and UM are also introduced to evaluate nowcasting performance in the spectrum space. This ongoing work is based on the previous research about combining recurrent neural networks with variational mode decomposition and multifractals to predict rainfall time series in Paris area.

How to cite: Zhou, H., Schertzer, D., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Combining Generative Adversarial Networks with Multifractals for Urban Precipitation Nowcasting , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-531, 2024.

Urbanization induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have attracted widespread attention.

A comprehensive attribution analysis model is designed to understand the inherent uncertainties in diagnosing the effects of urban expansion dynamics and modes on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. First, 68 selected cities across China are categorized into three types, including expanding, contracting, and staying cities, through developing an evaluation indicator system by integrating population, economy, construction, and social information. Next, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the cities were quantified. The Lasso method was employed to select the factors influencing CO2 emissions. For cities with different development modes, the XGBoost regression model with SHAP algorithm was employed to calculate the contribution rate of various factors to carbon emissions in different types of cities. Additionally, the analysis considered the temporal changes of these factors.

The main conclusions are as follows:

(i)Comparing urban built-up areas extracted from the nighttime light dataset with China's national land use and cover change dataset, the results reveal a minimum correlation of 0.72-0.82 and an average overall accuracy of 78%.

(ii)The urbanization process of 68 cities exhibits a predominant pattern of normal fluctuations, with a coexistence of expansion and contraction. The results indicate that over the past 20 years, expanding cities have been concentrated mainly in coastal regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, while contracting cities are primarily found in inland areas characterized by traditional industrial cities. It is observed that the development processes of most cities involve an initial phase of intensive expansion (or contraction), followed by a gradual trend towards stability in the later stages.

(iii)The factors influencing carbon emissions in expanding and contracting cities share commonalities and differences. Population and energy efficiency both have significant impacts on carbon emissions in different types of cities. For expanding cities, the impact of green area on carbon emissions is more pronounced. Conversely, in contracting cities, the influence of foreign trade is more significant.

How to cite: Qian, J. and Cai, D.: The impact of the expansion and contraction of China’s cities on CO2 emissions,2002-2021,evidence from integrated nighttime light data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-821, 2024.

Machine learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have been increasingly adopted for geospatial tasks. However, geospatial data (such as points and raster cells) are often influenced by underlying spatial effects, and current model designs often lack adequate consideration of these effects. Determining the efficient model structure for representing geospatial data and capturing the underlying complex spatial and contextual effects still needs to be explored. To address this gap, we propose a Transformer-like encoder-decoder architecture to first represent geospatial data with respect to their corresponding geospatial context, and then decode the representation for task-specific inferences. The encoder consists of embedding layers that transform the input location and attributes of geospatial data into meaningful embedding vectors. The decoder comprises task-specific neural network layers that map the encoder outputs to the final output. Spatial contextual effects are measured using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods. We evaluate and compare the performance of our model with other model structures on both synthetic and real-world datasets for spatial regression and interpolation tasks. This work proposes a generalizable approach to better modeling and measuring complex spatial contextual effects, potentially contribute to efficient and reliable urban analytic applications that require geo-context information.

How to cite: Deng, R., Li, Z., and Wang, M.: A Transformer-Based Model for Effective Representation of Geospatial Data and Context, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1003, 2024.

In recent years, Sri Lanka has experienced a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKDu) in certain regions, especially in the North Central Province (NCP). The etiology of this disease is not yet clearly understood, although several hypotheses involving environmental and occupational factors have been proposed. To better understand the patterns of CKDu incidence and its potential relationship to environmental factors, a spatial and temporal analysis was conducted using geographic information system (GIS) tools. In this study, we identified the geographical hotspots of CKDu incidence over a period of eleven years (from 2010 to 2020) in the NCP, of Sri Lanka. The analysis was done for the districts of Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa in NCP. Furthermore, we analysed the temporal trends of CKDu incidence by comparing the disease burden between different years. Finally, we examined the association between river basins and CKDu incidence by overlaying the spatial layers of the disease incidence and river basins. Our results showed that there were significant spatial and temporal variations in CKDu incidence in the region over the study period. The disease is characterized by a fluctuating trend. Also, the number of hotspots has decreased over time, and the number of CKDu-affected patients has also decreased. Similarly found that CKDu hotspots were concentrated around the mainly 4 river basins in the region, indicating a possible link between water resources and the disease. By identifying CKDu hotspots and understanding the disease's movement over time, public health officials can target their efforts more effectively, reducing the disease's impact on affected communities. This study provides important insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of CKDu and suggests the need for further research to investigate the potential environmental risk factors contributing to this disease.

Key Words: Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Etiology (CKDu), Hotspots Analysis, Spatial and Temporal Variation, Geographical Information System (GIS)

How to cite: Arambegedara, C. S., Lijun, Y., Cai, D., Zhu, J., Ranasinghe, A. V., and Silva, A. P. D.: Spatial and Temporal Analysis for Identifying the Movement of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKDu) Hotspots; in Reference to River Basins in North Central Province, Sri Lanka, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1223, 2024.

Cities play a crucial role in climate neutrality because although they occupy only 4% of the EU land area, they host 75% of its population. In addition, they consume over 65% of global energy and account for more than 70% of global CO2 emissions. As climate change mitigation depends on urban action, the EU has decided to support cities in accelerating their green and digital transformation. The EU Mission on Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities aims to make the participating cities climate neutral and smart by 2030, in areas such as energy, waste management, transport, and buildings, to improve the quality of life. A WEBGIS Smart City Geospatial Framework has been developed for the Limassol Municipality in Cyprus. The establishment of a Smart City Geospatial Framework is imperative for several reasons. Firstly, it enables data-driven decision-making, allowing city officials to make informed choices about urban planning and resource allocation. Secondly, it enhances the efficiency of public services, such as transportation and emergency response, by leveraging real-time spatial data. Moreover, the framework promotes sustainability by providing insights into environmental factors, contributing to eco-friendly urban development. Lastly, the integration of geospatial technologies fosters citizen engagement, transparency, and overall improvement in the quality of life for urban residents. Under this WEBGIS smart city framework, the authors explore the importance of supporting the Limassol Municipality under the EU Mission for climate-neutral and smart cities by 2030 initiative, using the proposed WEBGIS smart city framework.  Results are presented using the GIS dashboard.

How to cite: Papantoniou, A., Danezis, C., and Hadjimitsis, D.: Exploring the importance of using a novel Smart City Geospatial Integrated Framework for supporting Cities participating in EU Mission for climate-neutral and smart cities by 2030: the case study of Limassol in Cyprus., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1502, 2024.

Information on urban groundwater in Vienna is important not only to secure a sustainable use and supply but also to protect groundwater quality. Here, we provide a compilation of available information and data to cover all relevant aspects of hydrogeology within the city in order to improve planning and policy making with regard to water extraction, geothermal use and groundwater protection.

We propose a grouping of the Quaternary and Neogene sediments as well as of the underlying sedimentary rocks of the Flysch zone and the Calcareous Alps, into hydrogeological units with distinct properties. Each unit is described regarding lithology, aquifer type, groundwater occurrence and yield. Additionally, the area percentage of sealed ground surface and the conditions of groundwater recharge are defined. Finally, the types of groundwater use, withdrawal rates, hydrochemical signatures and heavy metal contents are characterized.

Limestones and dolomites of the Calcareous Alps represent high yield karst aquifers with calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate-type hydrochemistry, used as spa water drawn from 800 m deep, artesian wells.

Within the Flysch zone, clay- and marlstones act as aquitards while sandstones constitute fractured or double-porosity aquifers which are partially confined, of low yield and used locally for drinking water, industrial water and irrigation. At the surface, the zone occurs in the Vienna Woods, where groundwater recharge through rain water can be high within sandstone areas.

Where Neogene silts and clays contain sand and gravel layers, these represent porous aquifers of low to medium yield, used mainly for irrigation, industrial water and geothermal purposes. Groundwater recharge from the surface is impeded by a thick loess cover. In the eastern part of the city, groundwater in a conglomerate layer of 300 m thickness and 3000 m below ground, reaches temperatures of up to 100°C and is considered Vienna’s future geo-energy reservoir.

Pleistocene terraces are made of gravel and, with decreasing age, show decreasing amounts of sand and silt intercalations, while the groundwater shows increasing yield, increasing mineralisation and major ion contents shifting from Ca and Mg dominance towards more Na and K. The terraces’ occurrence coincides with intense urban land use, sealing of the ground surface, low recharge and potential infiltration of leaking sewage water.

Within the Danube plain, 60 % of the land is used for agriculture and recreation where rain water can infiltrate easily into Holocene gravel. Recharge also happens partially through river bank filtrate of the Danube, partially through artificial recharge. Among all groundwater units in Vienna, this continuous aquifer shows the highest yield and the most intense use for irrigation and groundwater heat pumps. During peak periods of water demand, groundwater is also used as drinking water.

Vienna’s water consumption amounts to 200 litres per person per day approximatively. In periods of normal demand, drinking water is provided exclusively by Alpine karst springs captured up to 120 km southwest of the city.

How to cite: Pfleiderer, S.: The hydrogeological units of Vienna - land use, groundwater use and groundwater chemistry, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1818, 2024.

Urban blue (water) and green (vegetation) spaces are natural refuges of cool spots for citizens to escape from the extreme heat outdoors and have been widely used in traditional and modern urban designs called ‘water towns’ (i.e., buildings are sited along rivers and trees), particularly in Southern China with rich water resources. This study represents the first comprehensive investigation into the cooling effect of urban river networks at different climatic scales in Shanghai, a Chinese megacity characterized by a significant presence of water towns. At the neighborhood scale, we conducted fine-resolution street-level monitoring of microclimatic data along various rivers during the 2022 heatwave periods in central Shanghai and applied an advanced spatial regression algorithm to quantify the synergistic effect of river and vegetation. At the city scale, we quantified the cooling buffer zones and cooling intensities of urban river networks by integrating fine-resolution urban river network maps with multi-source remotely sensed datasets. We found that the width of rivers, coverage ratio, density, and morphology of river networks are the key factors affecting the cooling potential. The confluence or proximity of river tributaries can also bring an enhanced cooling effect than standalone ones. In a diurnal cycle, rivers can lead to an averaged cooling intensity of 0.4–0.8 °C in air temperature with a maximum value of 3.5 °C in the afternoon, as well as a cooling distance ranging from 100 m to 700 m at various riverside neighborhoods. On the other hand, city-scale results show that river networks can provide a considerable cooling buffer zones covering 36.9% of Shanghai and a maximum cooling intensity of 5.5 °C in surface temperature. Our study implies that urban river networks cannot be neglected in urban climatic studies and should be incorporated into a new conceptualization of water-included urban local climate zone classifications in the world urban database.

How to cite: Song, J., Shi, D., and Zhong, Q.: How do urban river networks regulate city climate? A case study in Shanghai, China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2965, 2024.

We present the coupling of the Surface Urban Energy and Water Scheme (SUEWS) into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes pre-processing to capture spatial variability in surface characteristics. Fluxes and mixed layer height observations from southern UK were utilised to assess the WRF-SUEWS system over two-week periods across different seasons. Mean absolute errors are lower in residential Swindon compared to central London for turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes (QH, QE), with increased accuracy on clear days at both locations. The model's performance exhibits clear seasonality, showing enhanced precision for QH and QE during autumn and winter due to more frequent clear days than in spring and summer. Using the coupled system, we explored how anthropogenic heat flux emissions affect boundary layer dynamics by contrasting areas with varying human activities within Greater London; higher emissions not only raise mixed layer heights but also create a warmer, drier near-surface atmosphere. Future updates will align the coupled system with the latest SUEWS version, focusing on detailed surface-layer diagnostics that can support various urban climate applications such as building energy modelling and human thermal comfort assessments.

How to cite: Sun, T., Omidvar, H., Li, Z., Zhang, N., Huang, W., Kotthaus, S., Ward, H., Luo, Z., and Grimmond, S.: WRF-SUEWS Coupled System: Development and Prospect, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3246, 2024.

Urban overheating is becoming an increasingly pressing concern under the dual challenges of global warming and urban heat island effect. One effective way to mitigate urban overheating problems is to create urban cool spots via urban blue-green spaces (BGS).  To investigate the synergistic cooling effect of urban BGS, we proposed a new urban BGS coupling system by integrating a new urban water module with the state-of-the-art urban vegetation module in the framework of an urban canopy model (UCM). This coupled BGS system can represent complicated radiative exchanges between building, tree, and water, and simulate dynamic variations of shadow length, temperature, humidity, as well as energy and water fluxes within the urban street canyon. The new urban BGS model has been evaluated in typical neighborhoods with building and trees siting along rivers (also named ‘water towns’) in two Chinese megacities, i.e., Shanghai and Hong Kong. Based on this model, we investigated the synergistic cooling effect of BGS in different ‘water town’ design scenarios with different combinations of BGS characteristics (e.g., tree crown radius and height, river width, the distance between tree and river) and street canyon characteristics (e.g., geometries and orientations). Our study emphasizes the importance of optimizing 'water town' design to offer more effective cool spots for urban citizens facing escalating heat stress.

How to cite: Shi, D. and Song, J.: Investigating the synergistic cooling effect of urban blue and green spaces via an advanced urban canopy model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4483, 2024.

The urban subsurface is increasingly disturbed by human activity and/or covered by anthropogenic deposits. This is particularly true for city centres, with thick and heterogeneous subsurface archives related to historical urban development, as well as for modern residential and industrial areas, that are often built on extensive sheets of filling sand. The anthropogenic deposits may be very diverse in nature, ranging from natural aggregates (crushed rock, gravel, sand or clay) to various types of novel anthropogenic materials (e.g. steelworks slags, concrete and rubble), as well as mixtures of these.

Although anthropogenic deposits could be represented on subsurface maps and in 3D models, these deposits are often omitted. Their lateral extent and thickness are not well constrained and relevant information on the lithological properties of the deposits is generally lacking. At the same time, the demand for complete and detailed subsurface information in the built environment is increasing and relates to anything from building stability and ground heat extraction to preserving cultural heritage and mitigating the effects of climate change.

This presentation therefore focusses on the lithological characterisation and stratigraphical subdivision of anthropogenic deposits in order to improve their representation in 3D geological subsurface models. We will evaluate current lithological standards and stratigraphic approaches and present the principles of the approach that we are developing in the Netherlands. We will discuss the practical consequences and give examples of bringing our approach into practice. Ultimately, a well-thought lithological description and classification system of anthropogenic deposits is a prerequisite to produce reliable subsurface and coupled surface-subsurface models. In that way, we can address the many challenges related to the ever-increasing use of  urban space and thus improve the wellbeing of our citizens.

How to cite: Schokker, J. and Dijkstra, J.: Improved representation of anthropogenic deposits in 3D urban geological subsurface models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6045, 2024.

The infrastructures of Régie Autonome des Transports Parisiens (RATP) system are significant for the transportation of the Île-de-France region, providing essential social and economic services. In order to assess and mitigate the negative impact of climate change, this study aims to characterise the flood and heat wave risks of RATP infrastructures under climate change on multiple scales. Extreme flood events and heat wave events may result in the functional disruptions to the RATP infrastructures by interrupting circulation for more or less long periods. Therefore, a better understanding of the multi-scales risk (combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators) of RATP infrastructures could enhance their resilience to climate change. With this respect, a multi-scale analysis of flood and heat wave risks of RATP infrastructures is presented by integrating the Universal Multifractal (UM) framework and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The UM framework is a stochastic method that allows analysis of the natural hazards (extreme precipitation and temperature) and risks under three future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) across a range of scales. The AHP method is applied for quantifying the various risks by weighting hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators based on experts’ knowledge. The results show that a certain number of RATP stations and lines are prone to flood and heat waves under climate change, especially in the RCP8.5 scenario. By undertaking the multiple scales of flood and heat wave risks of RATP infrastructures, this study seeks to contribute valuable insights that will inform strategic planning and resilience-building initiatives for RATP infrastructures under climate change (adaptation measures). It provides a theoretical basis for multiple risk assessments in other metropolitan areas worldwide.

How to cite: Qiu, Y., Versini, P.-A., Mifsud-Couchaux, N., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Multiscale characterisation of varied risks for transportation infrastructures under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7877, 2024.

Groundwater flooding within the urban infrastructure can play a major role in determining the resilience of urban environments. Urban groundwater models can be used to simulate the complex interactions between surface water and groundwater within the urban system and can be developed to jointly account for groundwater-surface water processes and subsurface characterization. They can be used to simulate potential groundwater flooding and help understand the role of groundwater in urban resilience to climate change. However, urban groundwater is a component of the wider urban water system that has traditionally been overlooked, and the complex interactions between surface water and groundwater may obscured by urban infrastructure and its influence on groundwater flow. Furthermore, the subsurface characterisation is an integral part of any groundwater model, however it’s influence on model performance is not yet fully understood. Therefore, the inherent complexities of the urban environment, combined with the scarcity of appropriate groundwater and subsurface data, can lead to increased model uncertainty. It is argued that robust urban groundwater modelling depends on a strong conceptual understanding of the groundwater system, and constraining the uncertainty in the subsurface characterisation.

This project aims to assess model sensitivity to the geological interpretation in simulating groundwater dynamics that represent regions of groundwater flooding. It accounts for uncertainty in the subsurface information to develop an ensemble of different geological interpretations and evaluate the influence of the subsurface characterisation on groundwater flow model performance, within the Ouseburn watershed in the greater Newcastle upon Tyne area.

How to cite: Ntigkakis, C., Birkinshaw, S., Stirling, R., and Thomas, B.: Urban hydrogeologic uncertainty characterisation to evaluate risk of groundwater flooding, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8391, 2024.

Desealing appears as an option to disartificialise soils. It embraces several territorial issues like water management, adaptation to climate change, the well-being of inhabitants and biodiversity. In practice, many desealing operations are carried out. The areas to be desealed are most often linked to opportunities such as development projects or target actions (like school playgrounds). There are in fact few potential maps to support desealing strategies. Existing methods systematically take certain criteria into account (e.g. water infiltration). Environmental criteria are however more or less considered.

The DésiVille project (2021-2024) aims to provide decision-making tools to support desealing strategies. In particular, it is preparing a methodological guide to map the potential for desealing, in order to propose a harmonized and concerted framework. The methodology considers 4 thematics: i) the characteristics of the sealed surfaces, ii) the potential of infiltration of soils, iii) the environmental risks and the protection of resources, and iv) the benefits of desealing.

The thematics linked to the potential of infiltration of soils and to the environmental risks consider information on the subsurface. In particular the presence of clay and the groundwater depth feed the potential of infiltration. The environmental risks and protection of resources integrate the presence of soluble rocks, the risk of soil pollution, the risk of flooding due to groundwater rise, the geotechnical risk, area of protection of the water resource. A multicriteria spatial analysis crosses the information per thematic on one side, and among thematics on the other side. The study case of Nantes Métropole (France) illustrates the influence of the potential of infiltration and of the environmental risks and protection of resource on the global potential of desealing maps.

The subsurface needs to be considered to build desealing strategies. More generally, it is essential to consider it in urban planning and development. Although out of sight, it must not be out of mind.

How to cite: Le Guern, C., Prézeau, F., Chrétien, P., and Clozel, B.: Subsurface in territorial soil desealing strategies, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8476, 2024.

Naples is the third largest Italian city by size and population. Over 75% of its area is urbanized and the development of the city, often disorderly over the centuries, have occurred despite that the city is exposed to numerous geological hazards, namely: the volcanic and seismic hazard associated with a possible reactivation of Vesuvius and Phlegraean Fields volcanic centres; the seismic hazard connected with the  Apennine seismic activity; the landslide hazard due to the geologically immature landscape and the sinkhole hazard associated with the anthropic use of the subsoil. The studies undertaken and commissioned in the past by the Municipal Administration of Naples, starting from those aimed at facing the so-called Naples’ Subsoil Emergency in the early 2000s, have allowed the acquisition of a large amount of geological information relating to the subsoil, which requires a new and more modern data management structure. For this purpose, the Ufficio Servizio Difesa Idrogeologica del Territorio of the Municipality of Naples has started a project aimed at valorising and updating the enormous amount of data in its possession, through the creation of an digital platform aimed at representing the subsoil of the municipal territory. In this work the preliminary results of the project are presented. The objective of the project is to build a dataset of the geological subsoil information, structured by means of a system of coherent and organic relationships, which will concern not only the geological features (stratigraphic logs, geotechnical parameters etc.) but also the anthropic features (man-made cavities, underground services, tunnels etc.) and that will be included, in the future, within a broader digital  platform concerning the housing and underground public facilities. ISPRA, via the Department for the Geological Survey of Italy, has carried out numerous studies in the Neapolitan area in recent years, also in collaboration with the Municipality of Naples. In this context, ISPRA will provide scientific support and data in its possession for the construction of an updated geological model of the subsoil and the revision of the city’s geological map. With the accomplishment of the project, the digital platform of the subsoil of the city of Naples will become the reference geo-informatics tool of the municipal GIS; it will also have a strong participatory value open to all stakeholders, with the possibility of activating exchanges between citizens and institutions aimed at a continuously updating the acquired knowledge.

How to cite: Guarino, P. M., Barba, A., Marra, F., Pascarella, F., and Roma, M.: The subsoil of the city of Naples: accomplishment of a digital platform for its representation, management and protection, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8492, 2024.

Understanding and accurate identification of long-term urban greening dynamics in China are critical for the sustainable urban management (Sustainable Development Goals, SDG11) and living environment of humans. But it was often challenging because a lack of continuous high-frequent data at high spatial resolution and over large time scales. Here, we proposed a framework for identifying detailed evolution processes and regime shifts in relation to urban greening based on characterization of urban greenness in continuous fields over space and time. We utilized annual, fractional estimates of urban green vegetation (GV) endmember time series from per-pixel Landsat composites, using a standardized spectral mixture Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model in China over the past three decades. A Google Earth Engine platform-based non-linear model (logistic curves) was developed to derive the magnitude, timing and duration of urban greening at a per-pixel basis during these time series records. These parameters were combined to characterize heterogeneous pattern of urban greening throughout the entire China in 1990-2019. We found that the unmixed fractions of urban GV exhibited a generally consistent agreement with estimated fractions from high-spatial-resolution Google earth images (RMSE =11.30%), demonstrating its high suitability and reliability. Using detailed geographic process model with logistic trajectory fitting curves, our findings indicate that the ratio of the area with significant greening trends during 1990-2019 account for nearly 3.0% to the overall urbanized area in China. These greening changes are predominantly distributed in eastern coastal region and northeast Plain. In particular, the Jing-jin-ji, Ha-Chang and Middle-Southern Liaoning are the top three urban agglomerations contributing the greening for this period. Notably, Urumqi, the capital city in north-western China, has the highest ratio of the area with significant increasing GV relative to the urbanized space of the entire city, due to great achievements of urban green construction (i.e., the newly established parks or street plants), and relatively low greenness before 1990. Based on the derived change parameters, our results also reveal the economic impacts on the timing of urban greening are prevalent. For instance, the timing of turning points for urban greening in three major highly-urbanized and developed urban agglomerations, that is, the Jing-jin-ji, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta showed 2-3 years earlier than other regions. Compared to the state-of-the-art approaches, this framework has the potential to detect high-frequent urban greening process as continuous spatial and time fields with multi-dimensional thematic, thus could help support sustainable urban management practices.

How to cite: Zhang, P., Wu, H., Chen, H., and Sun, Q.: Remotely sensed monitoring of urban greening in China from 1990-2019 to support SDG11, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8678, 2024.

Building heights play a crucial role in various urban research fields, including 3D modeling, urban environmental analysis, sustainable development, and urban planning and management. Numerous methods have been developed to derive building heights from different data sources, including street view imagery, which offers detailed, ground-level perspectives of buildings. However, occlusions from street elements such as trees and vehicles present significant challenges, especially in densely built or complex urban areas. To address this challenge, we propose the use of advanced deep learning models for occlusion reduction, enhancing building height estimation from street view images. As trees typically cause the most occlusion, we employ an open-set detector and a large segmentation deep neural network to create tree masks in the images. Subsequently, we use a stable diffusion model for image inpainting, restoring parts of buildings occluded by trees. These inpainted images are then processed through building instance segmentation, yielding clearer building boundaries for height estimation. Moreover, we integrate a single-view metrology-based height estimation method with a building footprint auxiliary approach, leveraging their respective strengths and mitigating the impact of varying distances between street view cameras and buildings. Our methodology is validated using a dataset comprising 954 buildings and 3814 images. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach increases the percentage of height estimates within a two-meter error margin by approximately 7%, confirming its effectiveness. This work offers a cost-effective solution for large-scale building height mapping and updating, and it opens new avenues for urban research requiring accurate building height data.

How to cite: Yan, Y., Huang, B., Wang, W., Xie, L., Guo, R., and Zhao, Y.: Enhancing Building Height Estimation through Occlusion Reduction with Advanced Deep Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9413, 2024.

A full access to high-quality geological data is fundamental to address all different aspects of land management, such as adapting to existing geohazard and ensuring the availability of georesources (e.g. critical raw materials and geothermal energy). This is particularly relevant in urban areas, where a multidisciplinary and integrated approach to diverse geological issues is imperative.

GeoSciences IR is a geological research infrastructure currently being implemented through NextGenerationEurope funds, with the aim of meeting the needs of Regional Geological Surveys (RGS), the local technical offices having a specific mandate on geological topics at regional and local level, including the urban environment.

Through the GeoSciences IR platform, it will be possible to access data, services, tools, and training modules developed in accordance with the FAIR principles and the INSPIRE Directive, which require fully open accessibility, interoperability, and reusability.

The priority topics of GeoSciences IR have been selected according to the RGS'needs and encompass various geological themes, including 2D and 3D geological mapping, marine geology, geoheritage conservation, geohazard mapping and monitoring, sustainable mining, and land consumption.

Among datasets under preparation, some will be of more specific interest for the urban environment, including i) stratigraphies from boreholes; ii) characterization of local geohazard related to landslides, sinkholes, active and capable faulting; iii) structural works for the mitigation of hydrogeological risk; iv) ground motion mapping and monitoring for low-velocity slope movements and subsidence; v) soil sealing and land consumption monitoring.

Users will also benefit from the full interoperability among services and will be able to access innovative tools based on specific algorithms available for cloud data processing.

Furthermore, a specific section of GeoSciences IR will be dedicated to e-learning modules built to increase the transfer of knowledge from scientists to end-users of GeoSciences IR. These modules have mainly focused on the methodological approach for data collection and on the use of available datasets and tools.

GeoSciences IR is under implementation by a large consortium composed by 13 Italian universities and 3 research institutes, coordinated by ISPRA, Geological Survey of Italy. The infrastructure will open to the public in 2025 and will be maintained for at least 10 years.

In this long-term perspective, a dialogue with external stakeholders (from institutions and the private sector) has already started with the aim of building a reference infrastructure for geological data in Italy, taking into account also their feedback and, in some cases, including additional contributions in terms of data, services and tools. Meanwhile, a constant interaction has been established with other existing research infrastructures available at European level (e.g. EPOS ERIC, EGDI) to ensure their complementarity and identify eventual gaps and overlaps.

How to cite: Guerrieri, L., Rizzo, M., and Passaquieti, R.: GeoSciences IR: a geological research infrastructure for land management in urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9711, 2024.

Abstract

Temporal structure functions are usually defined as the q-th order statistical moment of the absolute fluctuation in a time series over a temporal lag at a given resolution. However, applying this in analyzing a temperature time series results in the possibility of simulating only a similar fluctuation over a temporal lag at a resolution and not the temperature directly. Since the aim is to simulate a temperature time series this simulated fluctuation series can be added to an assumed mean temperature to obtain a temperature time series. However, proceeding this way seems to necessitate some ad-hoc moving average technique that seems difficult to be physically reasoned. Secondly but more importantly both diurnal and seasonal periodicity have to be forcibly introduced once again in a non-rigorous manner. A drastic yet reasonably useful alternative would be to modify the definition of the structure-function instead. For order of statistical moment q  the modified structure function is now defined here as

S_q(Δt)=⟨ΙT_λ - T_λ/2,2Ι^q⟩

Where the scale ratio λ∝1/ΙΔtΙ; 2^m/2^m=1≤λ≤Λ=2^m/2⁰ and ΙΔtΙ is the time lag, whereas 2^m is the largest possible scale out of the scales analyzed that can be represented as a power of 2. While T_λ is the temperature at scale ratio λ or scale l, T_λ/2,2 is the upscaled (by a scale ratio of 2) temperature at scale ratio λ/2 or scale 2l, and the subscript ‘2’ indicates that each element of  T_λ/2 (upscaled temperature) is repeated twice consecutively. It should be noted that T_λ/2,2 is not the same as T_λ because the former is an upscaled series, twice repeated (consecutively) of the latter. The largest scale ratio considered in the analysis is Λ. By defining the structure-function in this way temperature at a larger scale after being repeated a sufficient number of times can be directly added to the fluctuation at a smaller scale to result in the temperature at a smaller scale. The universal multifractal parameters obtained from the modified structure-function analysis are not necessarily equal to those obtained from the usual structure-function analysis (i.e. the two different structure functions follow two different scaling laws). An iterative curve fitting technique is used to estimate the values of Universal Multifractal (UM) parameters C₁, H, and a  while the value of α  is estimated using a normalized form of the modified structure function along with the un-normalized one. A simulation procedure that utilizes the aforementioned modified structure function definition is proposed here to generate temperature scenarios. Finally, reference evapotranspiration is estimated based on the simulated temperature using a simple empirical power law function. The actual evapotranspiration is estimated using the reference evapotranspiration and water content via a different, simpler empirical function. The tentative methodology proposed here when used along with simulated reference rainfall scenarios could help design zero-emission green roof solutions.

Keywords

Multifractals, Non-linear geophysical systems, Cascade dynamics, Scaling, Hydrology, Meteorology.

How to cite: Ramanathan, A., Versini, P.-A., Schertzer, D., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Perrin, R., and Sindt, L.: Simulating Temperature and Evapotranspiration using a Universal Multifractal approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11021, 2024.

Residential and commercial buildings jointly account for 39% of energy consumption and 28% of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. In densely populated urban areas, the share of energy use and emissions attributable to buildings can be even higher. The future evolution of building energy use and associated carbon emissions is uncertain, with potentially substantial variations in climate conditions, socioeconomic development, and power sector trajectories; accounting for these in future projections is often compounded by limited data availability and resolution of conventional modeling approaches. To address these challenges, in this study, we employed a bottom-up, high-resolution modeling approach and evaluated city-scale building energy consumption and CO₂ emissions across 277 urban areas in the U.S. under various mid-21^st century scenarios. Our findings reveal substantial spatial and temporal variations in future changes in building energy use and CO₂ emissions among U.S. cities under a variety of climate, socioeconomic, and power sector evolution scenarios. On average, a 1°C warming at the city scale projects a 13.8% increase in building energy use intensity for cooling, accompanied by an approximately 11% decrease in energy use intensity for heating, albeit with notable spatial disparities. Collectively, driven by global warming and socioeconomic development, mid-century city-level building energy use is projected to rise on average by 17.5–39.8% under all scenarios except for SSP3-7.0 when compared with the last decade. In contrast, city-level building CO₂ emissions are projected to decrease in most urban areas (averaging from 10.6% to 66.0% under different scenarios), with spatial variations primarily influenced by climate change and power sector decarbonization.

How to cite: Wang, C., Reyna, J., Horsey, H., and Jackson, R.: Urban energy futures: Unraveling the dynamics of city-scale building energy use and CO2 emissions under mid-century scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13309, 2024.

Urban drainage models have been used in many cities for analysis, prediction, and control related to urban flooding. Many sources of uncertainties exist in these models comprising model parameters, meteorological forcings, and surface conditions. Thus, it is necessary to calibrate models before using them in reality. A common choice in calibration is to fit the model outputs with observations through many cases. This strategy is known as the offline mode in calibration and works on the stationary assumption of model parameters. If parameters vary in time, this method usually yields the climatological range of the parameters, which are not necessarily optimal in specific cases. In this study, instead of the offline model we follow the online mode in estimating model parameters by using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Furthermore, we estimate not only model parameters but also model states simultaneously utilizing the EnKF. Note that originally, EnKF is a data assimilation technique that is based on sampling in estimating any system states given observations, and later is used for the purpose of parameter estimation. The combination of EnKF and an urban drainage model is expected to lead to a real-time monitoring system for urban flooding similar to reanalysis systems in numerical weather prediction.

How to cite: Duc, L., Jo, J., and Sawada, Y.: Realtime monitoring of urban flooding by ensemble Kalman filters, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14334, 2024.

Evaluation of the outdoor thermal comfort and comprehension of the impact of urban morphology are essential for assessing heat-related risks and implementing urban planning strategies that enhance the resilience of urban populations to extreme heat events. However, the challenge lies in achieving city-wide thermal comfort mapping at high spatial and temporal resolutions, which requires consideration of the complex urban morphology (urban geometry and land cover) at a microscale, as well as the background meteorological factors at larger scale. Here, we introduce an effective framework for city-scale thermal comfort mapping at high spatial-temporal resolution that integrates WRF-UCM and SOLWEIG model, aiming to achieve fine-grained thermal comfort mapping at the city scale and to explore the impact of urban morphology on these thermal conditions.

In the proposed framework, we employ the WRF-UCM model (The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the urban canopy model) to establish the background meteorological condition at local-scale (500m resolution). Additionally, we utilize the SOLWEIG (Solar and Longwave Environmental Irradiance Geometry) model for the simulation of mean radiant temperature at a finer micro-scale (10m resolution), a critical determinant of thermal comfort. These simulations are performed using detailed 3D urban morphological data and land cover information. Subsequently, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is calculated on hourly basis, integrating the aforementioned factors.

A case study conducted for a Chinese city with a population of 15 million demonstrates a significant correction between the rise in the UTCI during daytime and an increase in impervious surface area, evidenced by a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.80. Furthermore, our findings emphasize the significance of tree canopy coverage in mitigating heat, demonstrating that an implementation of 40% tree cover could diminish daytime UTCI by approximately 1.5 to 2.0 ºC. This methodological framework is not only instrumental in assessing heat-related risks and human thermal discomfort within intricate urban environments but also offers pivotal insights for the adoption of climate-resilient urban planning strategies.

How to cite: Ding, X., Zhao, Y., Strebel, D., Fan, Y., Ge, J., and Carmeliet, J.: A cross-scale methodological framework for the quantification of the impact of urban features on intra-city microclimate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14606, 2024.

Urban areas are major contributors to climate change, accounting for 71 to 76% of CO₂ emissions from global final energy use [1]. Nevertheless, cities are growing in both size and number. By 2030, it is projected that 730 million people will live in megacities (cities with at least 10 million inhabitants) compared to 500 million people in 2016 [2]. The number of megacities will also increase from 29 to 43 [3]. On the other side, solar radiation is an important component in the energy balance of urban areas. Urban form impacts the production of building-integrated photovoltaics, solar heat gains and heating/cooling demand of buildings. Relevant urban form characteristics include urban layout, population density, and individual building characteristics, such as height, wall orientation, roof slope, and construction material. Optimization of the urban form design can contribute to better energy performance of buildings. However, optimization is a large multivariable problem that is computationally intensive. A good understanding of the urban form impact can guide the optimization. In this work, the influence of shadow from surrounding buildings on solar radiation incident on buildings is studied provided a three-dimensional (3D) model of an area.

Open Access 3D models for many cities are made available by local authorities. Standardized data formats for 3D modelling are well-established. The scientific community has been working towards understanding urban forms, their impact on energy demand, and the potential for realizing sustainable urban forms. So far, the available work relied on different tools to analyze the impact of urban form on space heating/cooling demand for a specific city making reproducibility difficult. 

This work shows the advantage of using the standardized CityJSON format to establish an open-source Python-based framework to calculate hourly solar irradiance on building facades, considering the shadow of surrounding buildings, generate a thermal model of building envelopes, and calculate heat losses, gains, and the heating load of a building. The proposed methodology involves three phases. First is data collection and pre-processing. Second is the calculation of direct solar radiation on building facades and roofs. For that, hourly sun positions have been determined.  Maximum shadow length is calculated for each sun position. The geometry of buildings is analyzed, shared walls are excluded, and exemplary window vertices are allocated on the free walls such that the window-to-wall ratio ranges between 15% and 25%. Orientations of walls and slopes of tilted roofs were identified. Hyper-points are deployed on each surface in a 0.5m grid. With that, shadow height at each hyper-point and direct solar radiation were calculated. Third is the estimation of the heating or cooling load.

An exemplary neighborhood in Munich is presented as a real case study. Preliminarily results confirm that urban form is influencing the energy performance of buildings. Less shadowing on a building implies higher solar exposure but not necessarily reduced heating demand despite identical thermal properties of buildings’ envelope.

References:

[1] United Nations. (2017). Urban Environment. https://unfccc.int/resource/climateaction2020/media/1308/Urban_Environment_17.pdf

[2] United Nations. (2016). The World’s cities in 2016: data booklet. http://digitallibrary.un.org/record/1634928

[3] European Commission. (2020). Urbanisation worldwide. https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/topic/continuing-urbanisation/urbanisation-worldwide_en

How to cite: Alfouly, M. and Hamacher, T.: Evaluating Urban Form Influence on Solar Exposure and Corresponding Building Energy Demands, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15532, 2024.

The UK Government Office for Science has recently commissioned a Foresight Project on the ‘Future of the Subsurface’. The project draws on experts across different government departments and industry - including representative from the geological and environmental community, planning specialists, infrastructure and service providers, city authorities and energy specialists - to understand the future demands that will be placed on the subsurface to deliver our sustainable development goals; What are the high-value future societal subsurface uses? What climatic and environmental pressures are expected? What policy interventions will be required to protect and enhance the value of the subsurface in the longer-term? We present outcomes from the Foresight project's subsurface issues paper, alongside recommendations from the National and Regional level expert elicitation. Drawing on our research in urban geosciences and subsurface assessment we highlight how geological surveys can, and are, responding to the issues and recommendations highlighted by the Foresight project.  Some common themes emerge for which the geological survey has a role, for example, ensuring coordinated and interdisciplinary approaches to planning; Assessing opportunities to update or streamline subsurface governance and regulation; Improving the coverage, quality, availability and interoperability of data.

In addition to these overarching principles, the variability of regional geology in the UK and its impact on subsurface issues is a prominent outcome of the Foresight project and necessitates place-based approaches, tailored to distinct geologies and geographies, to define a hierarchy of subsurface need.  The UK has a particularly varied geology spanning the whole Phanerozoic this means that there are very different geological problems in different cities. Taking this placed-based approach we show how the evolution of 3D geology mapping and geospatial tools at the British Geological Survey (BGS), has shifted towards multi-assessment to appraise the diverse integrated and competing subsurface uses. We highlight the practical applications of 3D models in improving data availability and accessibility e.g. by updating geological maps, enhancing data products, and facilitating user accessibility through tools like model viewers. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of geological information to help facilitate dialogue and stakeholder consultation, and support evidence-based policymaking.

How to cite: Kearsey, T., Bricker, S., Terrington, R., Kessler, H., Burke, H., and Thorpe, S.: How do geological surveys respond to evolving uses and interaction in the urban subsurface?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15561, 2024.

This work has benefited from a multidisciplinary scientific and technical contributions geared by the HM&Co Lab of the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (hmco.enpc.fr) towards the sustainable, desirable, and resilient city. The deepening of the Universal Multifractal (UM) concepts and the encouragement of their operational applications have been linked to several initiatives launched in recent years to better integrate the heterogeneity/intermittency into public policy practices. Considering the complex, dynamic interactions between geophysical and anthropogenic fields within a conurbation such as the Ile de France region, a transition towards the shared value economy has been considered to best stimulate sober and collaborative development, and there exist at least 3 ways to approach today’s discussions about future transformations. Their intercomparison is the core of this presentation.

Following the United Nations 2030 Agenda, the first most conventional approach is based on notions of sustainable development, supported by appropriate adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

Combining the notions of extreme variability and complexity would require linking together geophysical and urban scales within extreme variability, and therefore considering geosciences, and not just geophysics! Such a synergistic and integrative approach would help move beyond traditional silo thinking, addressing the complexity of data- and/or theory-driven urban geosciences.

Finaly, combining the notions of scaling and nonlinear variability would ultimately require linking cascades, multiplicative chaos, and multifractals. This would initiate a break with linear stochastic models towards stronger heterogeneity / intermittency, which would in turn lead to a plausible clustering of field and activity fluctuations. The appearance of multifractal phase transitions then becomes possible, considerably amplifying the impact of any action, and would make future transformations fully efficient, effectively imitating the way in which Nature acts. This will be finally illustrated using several examples of so-called Nature Based Solutions (NBS).

How to cite: Tchiguirinskaia, I., Qiu, Y., and Schertzer, D.: Different Approaches to the Impacts of Climate Change, with a Common Goal: a Healthy Planet, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16662, 2024.

This work focuses on two case studies carried out in Spain, where urban geophysics plays an important role in subsurface characterization. The application of geophysical methods in urban scenarios faces several challenges related to environmental noise (seismic or electromagnetic) or logistical constraints (lack of open space, complexity of instrumentation setup). In order to overcome these problems, research efforts are needed on both acquisition and processing aspects. The first case study presents the use of an innovative technology to acquire seismic data in the city of Granada. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is based on the measurement of strain rate along a buried optical fiber that provides seismic measurements in a dense array of sensors. In our study, the fiber is a pre-existing underground telecommunications cable that crosses the city from northwest to southeast. We used 10 hours of ambient noise recordings to obtain subsurface reflection images that provide critical information for ground motion studies and seismic hazards in the metropolitan area. The second case study is located in the autonomous city of Melilla (North Africa). In this work, a gravimetric survey was carried out over the urban area with the aim of delineating the bedrock using 3D gravimetric inversion. We integrated the resulting geophysical model with surface geological observations, electrical resistivity tomography sections and borehole data to produce a 3D geological model of the city. Both studies highlight the suitability of geophysical information to complement the urban geological and geotechnical dataset to characterize and image the city underground.

How to cite: Benjumea, B., Marín-Lechado, C., Gaite, B., Ruíz-Constán, A., Schimmel, M., Bohoyo, F., and Spica, Z. J.: Geophysics for urban subsurface characterization: Two case studies from Spain, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17225, 2024.

As cities grapple with the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change, the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) stands at the forefront of fostering sustainable urban mobility, particularly through the development of cycling infrastructure aimed at bolstering public health and well-being. Policy initiatives implemented in BCR such as 'Good Move' and 'Ville 30' have acted as catalysts, prompting a paradigm shift towards specialized cycling lanes and facilities, thereby enhancing the safety and convenience of cycling as a viable transportation alternative. However, the growing recognition of urban heat stress and thermal discomfort as significant public health concerns, particularly for users of urban soft mobility means, highlights the pressing need for immediate and targeted interventions from urban stakeholders. While it is widely recognized that weather conditions, especially during very hot and cold days, influence cycling behavior, as do urban environmental features like the urban fabric and the presence of green infrastructure in a street, there remains a need to establish quantifiable metrics for assessing the impact of thermal comfort on cycling behavior. This study aims to address this gap, offering a nuanced examination of the cycling routes and cycling behavior of the BCR. We propose a multidisciplinary approach that integrates geospatial, psychological, and environmental sciences to examine the complex interplay between cycling path planning, urban design, micrometeorology, and thermal comfort. Data spanning from 2019 to 2022 has been sourced from multiple channels, including Brussel Mobility, Google Street View (GSV) with semantic image classification, Local Climate Zone (LCZ) maps, and meteorological stations. Geospatial data for Elsene and Etterbeek has been collected. The initial findings reveal that creating green pathways in urban areas can lessen heat stress and enhance comfort for cyclists. Moreover, cyclists are inclined to steer clear of extremely hot or cold weather conditions. Integrating urban microclimatological conditions into the framework of urban cycling design, this research aims to steer policy development towards creating urban soft mobility solutions that are more comfortable, climate-adaptive, and prioritize health considerations.

How to cite: Pandya, P., Llaguno-Munitxa, M., Edwards, M., Lacroix, E., and Manoli, G.: Modeling the Interplay between Urban Environmental Characteristics and Cyclist Route Preferences, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18514, 2024.

Communicating the subsurface is a challenge. Geoscientists are trained to visualise what is underneath them and to see the subsurface in 3D, whereas planners, policy makers and the people impacted by both (i.e., the public) are not.

Over many years, Geological Survey Ireland has developed several services in different formats to help pull together information about the subsurface, to present it in an organised manner and to portray it in three dimensions. Underpinned by the organisation’s commitment to open data and re-use of public sector information, these services are:

• National Geotechnical Borehole Database
• Geotechnical Viewer
• 3D models and model viewer

Assembled over several decades, the National Geotechnical Borehole Database has expanded with the submission of ground investigations that have been carried out ahead of development projects by the private and public sectors. It acts as a secure, national repository and is a valuable resource for:

• planning and optimising future ground investigations;
• understanding the subsurface and urban geology;
• for helping construct 2D and 3D models.

For ease of access, data and reports from the National Geotechnical Borehole Database are published on the Geotechnical Viewer, freely available to all.  The online Geotechnical Viewer displays ground investigations as digitised, georeferenced polygons, with an associated downloadable report in .pdf format. Several thousands of ground investigations projects are presented.

With time and technical and software advances, Geological Survey Ireland has produced urban 3D geological models using the National Geotechnical Borehole Database. A primary function of these models is visual communication of the subsurface to geoscientists, professionals from other disciplines, researchers, students and members of the public.

Our urban 3D models can assist with:

• Resource (water and geothermal) mapping;
• Understanding and characterising urban geology, with potential relevance for basement impact assessment, Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS), flooding and, subsurface management;
• Optimising geotechnical investigation, design and construction;
• De-risking human activities from impact of our subsurface environment;
• Investigating impact of human activities on environment around and beneath us, e.g., dewatering;
• and informing policy, planning, protective and climate adaptation measures.

3D geological models allow everyone to visualise the subsurface and can be used to communicate the geoscience behind policy, thereby making defensible decisions visible. To ensure the 3D models are easily accessible by all, Geological Survey Ireland have a 3D model viewer where no software or zip file downloads are needed. The 3D model viewer has Interactive and Augmented Reality functionality.

Recognising the importance of freely available, accessible data for non-geoscientists, Geological Survey Ireland has created and smoothed pathways for stakeholders to access and visualise geological data in urban settings.

How to cite: O'Connor, S. and Mozo Lopez, B.: From paper reports to 3D models for all – Irish geodata in urban settings, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18610, 2024.

Waste water networks constitute a crucial element of urban infrastructure that are influenced by an observed increase in urban flooding events. To ensure regular network operation and minimal environmental impact, anomaly detection of urban waste water networks timeseries can serve as a real-time monitoring tool to detect a) sensor defects and b) system anomalies such as leaks or blockages. However, setting up such a monitoring system in practice can face significant challenges. These include limited amounts of labeled anomalies, heterogenous data quality, inconsistent measurement frequencies as well as instationarity of the system (sensor displacement and drop-out, changes in network layout). For the waste water network of a medium-sized German city, we set up machine learning based anomaly detection and present strategies to tackle aforementioned challenges. Our results show that autoencoder-based model architectures are valuable tools in such a context where only a minimal fraction (<0.01%) of the data is labeled. Both a well-parametrized interpolation strategy and a model architecture that is largely robust to missing values are essential prerequisites for adequate model performance. Based on our results, we derive general strategies to aid in setting up anomaly detection systems in real-world use cases.

How to cite: Schmidt, L., Weiske, F., Schütze, M., Grimm, P., Polz, J., and Bumberger, J.: Tackling practical challenges in anomaly detection for real-time monitoring of urban waste water networks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18749, 2024.

The urban heat island effect is a well-documented phenomenon in cities, particularly in metropolitan areas, with recognized environmental consequences. Mitigating this effect through urban green space planting strategies has been widely acknowledged. However, the extent of the spatial heterogeneity of the cooling effect across different urban functional zones remains insufficiently explored at a fine scale of urban green space.

In this study, we employed a robust semi-supervised deep learning method to precisely segment urban green spaces from high-resolution remote sensing images and developed a 0.5 m fine-scale urban green space product tailored for the Beijing metropolitan area. Leveraging the fine-grained urban green space segmentation results, we modeled cooling efficiency through a nonlinear relationship, quantified as the temperature reduction for a 1% urban green space cover increase. We also conducted a comprehensive assessment of differential cooling efficacy, considering both reference temperature and urban green space cover levels, across diverse urban functional zones at the scale of 300 m × 300 m urban grids.

The results revealed substantial disparities in cooling efficiency among different urban functional zones and different levels of urban green space coverage in Beijing. To be specific, with a 1% increase in urban green space, the commercial zone, residential zone, industrial zone, transportation zone, and public zone can achieve a cooling effect with a mean of 0.095 ± 0.075°C, 0.075 ±0.065°C, 0.075±0.065°C, 0.070±0.060°C and 0.055±0.045°C respectively. By uncovering spatial variations and heterogeneity in cooling effects, our study underscores the critical need for customized strategies in urban green space planning based on functional zone characteristics and offers valuable insights into urban planning and sustainable development practices.

How to cite: Zeng, Y., Guo, J., and Zhu, X. X.: Differential Cooling Efficacy of Fine-Grained Urban Green Spaces Across Diverse Functional Zones: A Case Study in the Beijing Metropolitan Area, China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18781, 2024.

Extreme rainfall causes disruption and damage to urban transport networks through flooding, resulting in economic impacts for residents and businesses. The impact of such extreme weather events is the result of a complex interaction between the hazard (shaped by the nature of the rainfall and urban characteristics such as topography and land-use), exposure (the spatial and temporal intersection of the flood footprint with urban infrastructure and assets), and vulnerability (the ability of those assets and their users to cope with the level of flooding).

This paper demonstrates a complex systems approach to understand the role of these three components of the impact on urban transport systems by dynamically coupling a hydrodynamic flood model (such as CADDIES 2D or CityCAT) with an agent-based transport model (SUMO). By simulating a range of extreme rainfall events at a range of times of day, the modelling approach allows quantification of the scale of the impact (both direct and indirect) and assessment of adaptation options to reduce the disruption. Inclusion of coupled dynamic models allows the exploration of both hard, including engineered and nature-based approaches, and soft measures such as early warning and home working. This allows for a more-complete cost-benefit analysis of interventions and understanding of their effectiveness.

The modelling approach is demonstrated for a range of extreme rainfall events on commuting journeys on the road network in the city of Beijing, China. The results show that whilst grey and green approaches to adaptation can reduce the impact of extreme rainfall on the transport network, the benefits of soft measures, such as demand reduction by increased home working, are greater. Such soft measures also have additional co-benefits for reduction in emissions from transport, and potentially a lower implementation cost. Only by considering these interactions in a complex systems approach can such an assessment be undertaken.

How to cite: Ford, A., Liu, Y., Dawson, R., and Yang, S.: Asssessing the impacts of extreme rainfall on urban transport: a complex systems approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20304, 2024.

The concept of georesources, within the framework of the new environmental strategies of the European Union's (EU) Green Deal, has gained an expanded perspective, beyond the traditional approach linked to the mining industry. Georesources are defined as natural resources or elements of the landscape, physical space, and territory, to which economic, environmental, or social value is attributed. This definition encompasses raw materials, water resources, soil conservation, as well as intangible elements such as geoheritage, natural landscape, and ecosystem balance.

The concept of sustainability integrates with a technical principle that promotes the improvement of land conditions in natural, ecological, social, economic, and cultural terms. This perspective acknowledges that the European territory is the result of millennia of transformations by humans, with activities such as agriculture, land exploitation, and the use of natural resources that have altered environments.

The EU action plan aims to promote sustainability as a central element of economic growth, guiding capital flows towards a more sustainable economy. A priority is to define a classification of sustainability for georesources cultivation, based on technical-scientific and industrial standards, to which the sustainability of investments in the sector can be referred.

The Green Deal aims to address challenges related to climate change by promoting a new economy based on sustainable development, ecosystem protection, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation. EU economic strategies are oriented towards assigning 'value' to environmental aspects, stimulating innovation and competitiveness in a dynamic market.

The concept of environmental value extends to various areas such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, green mobility, and new technologies. This includes the creation of green jobs to ensure a fair transition to a new sustainable economy and reduced inequalities.

In the context of georesources, traditionally associated with the exploitation of non-renewable and renewable resources, an analytical approach is proposed to assess sustainability not only in the extractive field but also in the context of land planning within a broader geographic context.

For the quantitative assessment of the value of georesources in the policies outlined in the Green Deal, a parametric method based on the integrated analysis of the following themes is proposed: Geography, Hydrography, Environment, Sociology, Nature, and Economics to characterize the intrinsic value of georesources.

The use of GIS as a multidisciplinary analysis tool for integrating environmental and socio-economic data allows for a dynamic approach in identifying the intricate relationships of various themes, simplifying the representation of land status.

For each area identified through the comparison of indicators, a "georesource sustainability" index - the GIASONE index - is calculated by a weighted sum of the indices related to each theme. The use of the parametric method also allows for the comparison of different scenarios under varying environmental and socioeconomic conditions, useful for planning decisions.

How to cite: Leoni, G., De Caterini, G., D'Antona, M., De Corso, S., Delfini, C., Di Leginio, M., Diaco, M., Finocchiaro, G., Fumanti, F., Guerrieri, L., Lucarini, M., Marinosci, I., Munafo', M., Tria, N. G., and Spizzichino, D.: Giasone: a method to assess sustainability of georesources cultivation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20495, 2024.

Recently, we have seen an increase in models that combine powerful technical simulations with efficient visualizations and user interfaces that support decision-making in environmental and urban policies. These tools, known as Digital Twins (DTs) have been currently applied to water management and cities, however, their use tends to be limited to reduced groups of technical experts, policymakers and city officials, with the models behind these tools not being openly available, even though they may be publicly funded. Simultaneously developers, who may be interested in using these models to assess their proposals, cannot access them and must develop their local models, in many cases trying to catch up with new legislation.  A more efficient and open method could be implemented based on sharing evidence-based models through the planning application process. We call this an Integrated Water Planning Portal (IWPP), which consists of a web platform that gives developers access to a water systems model to test their proposals and use this work in the planning application process, which can be done through the same platform. In parallel to this, planners can use the portal to review this work, comment on it or give a final planning verdict. For such a system to work, robust data-sharing and model deployment protocols need to be implemented to strike a balance between accuracy, understandability and data protection. We present work on the feasibility of IWPP, based on prototype development and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in the UK water management field. Evidence from this work suggests a targeted approach to modelling and data collection which is presented in a model framework. This approach satisfies the requirements of different stakeholders and provides a robust base for further development of tools such as IWPP.

How to cite: Rico Carranza, E.: Integrated Water Planning Portal: Feasibility study for a development-oriented digital twin to facilitate integrated water management through targeted data and model sharing., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20502, 2024.

The Urban Geo-climate Footprint (UGF) project has been developed in the context of the Urban Geology Expert Group of Euro Geo Surveys, aimed to define a new methodology to classify and cluster cities by geological and climatic point of view.

The basic assumption of the UGF approach is that cities with similar geological-geographical settings should have similar challenges to manage, due to both common geological issues and climate change subsoil-related effects. Following this approach, a holistic tool consisting in a complex spreadsheet has been developed and applied to more than 40 European cities, in collaboration with several Geological Surveys of Europe.

It is demonstrated as the Urban Geo-climate Footprint tool is currently capable of providing a semi-quantitative quick representation of the pressures driven by geological and climatic complexity in the analysed cities, providing for the first time such classification for the urban environment.

Through the wide application of this methodology several benefits could be reached as the general awareness increase of non-experts and the enhanced reading-the-landscape capacity of decision makers about the link between geological setting and the increase in pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activity.

Furthermore, the UGF approach would facilitate the possibility to exchange best practices among similar cities for planning purposes, and it would support the decision processes to define and differentiate policies and actions, also supporting policy and cooperative geoscience and climate justice.

How to cite: Lentini, A., Galve, J. P., Benjumea, M. B., Bricker, S., Devleeschouwer, X., Guarino, P. M., Kearsey, T., Leoni, G., Saverio, R., Venvik, G., and La Vigna, F.: Current status of the Urban Geo-climate Footprint project, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20648, 2024.

Geosystem services (GS) can be defined as the contributions humans derive from the subsurface: the use of the subsurface to build and construct within and on top, groundwater, energy and material extraction, storing of e.g. water, energy and carbon dioxide, providing habitats for diverse species and support for surface life, and serving as an archive of cultural and geological heritage. Sectorial management and lack of consequent consideration of subsurface geosystem services and competing or complementary subsurface uses promote the first-come-first-served principle, potentially hindering a sustainable management of the subsurface and compromising inter- and intra-generational equity. The research project “UNDER: Geosystem services underneath for sustainable communities and improved spatial planning practices” has the overall goal to develop a framework for systematic and structured consideration of geosystem services in Swedish planning practices that can support a path towards sustainable cities and communities. The specific objectives of the UNDER project are to: i) advance the concept of GS by identifying and mapping associated societal values (social, environmental and economic), ii) identify methods to assess societal values and investigate possibilities for integration in existing tools, iii) identify structures of governance and develop a broader and practice-informed understanding of the different societal actors in subsurface planning, and iv) create a participative learning environment, extended beyond the project implementation period leading to transformative processes in planning practice. The project is case study driven and works in collaboration with Swedish municipalities. Four ongoing spatial planning processes in Swedish municipalities have been selected as case studies, which will provide a variety of spatial planning contexts and objectives. The project is a multi-disciplinary, international project with funding from the Swedish research council Formas, running during 2021 - 2025. The presentation of the project will focus on the project activities, preliminary results, and future work.

How to cite: Mossmark, F., Norrman, J., Lindgren, P., Lundin Frisk, E., Melgaço, L., Melo Zurita, M., Svahn, V., Söderqvist, T., Taromi Sandström, O., and Volchko, Y.: UNDER: Geosystem services underneath for sustainable communities and improved spatial planning practices, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20734, 2024.

While 3D city models are now available for many large and medium-sized cities and are increasingly being used, the urban subsurface (= urban geology) continues to be neglected in such models in most cases. The reasons for this are both inhomogeneous and complex geological/hydrogeological information, which at the same time is not assembled in a context-specific way, as well as a lack of standards, interfaces and exchange formats.

To overcome these barriers, geological and hydrogeological 2D and 3D content is currently being elaborated for several urban areas in the federal state of Hesse in close cooperation with the municipal cooperation partners using all available input data (in particular, however, boreholes, geological cross sections and groundwater level measurements), which are being assembled with a view to defined "urban geoparameters".

In addition, an attempt will be made to visualize the urban underground infrastructure (man-made objects) in 3D space and thus bring it into a synopsis with the geological and hydrogeological 2D and 3D content.

The synopsis, in turn, should be carried out in the respective working environments as far as possible, i.e. using the software solutions operated by the cooperation partners. To ensure this, both suitable interfaces and a suitable exchange format are required in the 3D data management systems for geological/hydrogeological models. The OGC API 3D GeoVolume and Styles interfaces and the 3D Tiles exchange format are considered to be the solution here.

With this presentation, we would like to present the current state of work with a focus on the parameterisation and packaging of geological and hydrogeological 2D and 3D data for urban areas.

How to cite: Lehne, R., Roy, S., Heggemann, H., and Schueth, C.: Urban geology as part of 3D city models - challenges and solutions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22240, 2024.

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. Net negative greenhouse gas emissions are needed to comply with the targets of the Paris climate agreement. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for biodiversity protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for biodiversity protection according to the EU 10% strict protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (-12 to -17.5 TgCO₂eq a^-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. Assuming a price of ca. 80 € ton^-1 CO₂eq according to the current level of the EU emission trading system (EU ETS), the economic value of the carbon sequestration of the current protected areas in Finland would be about 500 million € per year. These areas thus provide ecosystem services of significant economic value. The results of our study can be utilized for integrating climate and biodiversity policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.

How to cite: Forsius, M., Junttila, V., Kujala, H., Savolahti, M., and Schulz, T.: Present and future importance of protected areas as carbon sinks and storages in Finland, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1283, 2024.

Albedo, defined as the ratio between reflected radiation and total incoming radiation, is a key variable in the Earth radiative budget. In a fast changing climate with more frequent extreme events, such as droughts and excessive heat, vegetation is under constant stress. Such stress factors might modify the tree physiology, the reflectivity of individual leaves, and, eventually, the forest albedo as an entity. This might alter the local radiative budget and contribute to changes in the local climate, e.g., intensifying drought - a potential feedback loop. The understating of those effects might be further complicated by the occurrence of clouds. Therefore, this study presents spectral solar measurements of upward and downward irradiance that are used to determine the spectral albedo over a forest canopy. Since June 2021, ongoing measurements are performed on top of the Leipzig Canopy Crane located in the Leipzig floodplain forest. The measurements are separated for illumination geometries, i.e., the solar zenith angle, as well as for different cloud conditions. The interpretation of the measurements is aided and validated by coupled radiative transfer simulations using the library for radiative transfer model (libRadtran) and the Soil Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy fluxes (SCOPE2.0) model. Both models allow for simulations in the visible, near- and far-infrared wavelength range. By that, the impact of clouds on the spectral and broad band albedo, as well as the net radiative budget can be investigated. First simulations revealed that the presence of clouds enhance the spectral forest albedo. The magnitude of the effect is controlled by the cloud optical thickness, i.e., the ratio of direct and diffuse radiation. The enhancement is more pronounced for small solar zenith angles. However, the effect from clouds appears to be smaller than influences of variations in the surface properties. The presentation aims to outline the measurement set-up and strategy, and to discuss preliminary results. Furthermore, the new, iterative coupling of the atmosphere and soil-vegetation model is presented, which aims to improve the understating of cloud-vegetation radiation interactions.

How to cite: Wolf, K., Schäfer, M., Shekhar Jha, S., Weigelt, A., Richter, R., Kühne, T., Ehrlich, A., Jäkel, E., and Wendisch, M.: Impact of clouds on the forest albedo measured at the Leipzig Canopy Crane - A pilot study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3894, 2024.

Browning of surface waters due to increased terrestrial loading of dissolved organic matter is observed across the Northern Hemisphere. Brownification directly influences freshwater productivity and ecosystem services like water purification. Brownification often is explained by changes in large-scale anthropogenic pressures and ecosystem functioning, including acidification and climate change. Land use or cover changes and forestry measures have recently been observed to be one reason for the increase in brownification. Climate change influences brownification by increasing temperatures and thus stimulating the decay of dissolved organic carbon in soils, and by changing the timing and intensity of precipitation and snowmelt. A decrease in sulphur deposition is assumed to increase soil organic matter solubility. In Finland, productive forests cover about 66% of the land area. This study aimed to examine the effect of forest use changes on water browning in Finland under pressure of acidification and climate change. EU land use policies (Biodiversity Strategy, LULUCF Policy) influence land use but also forestry practices. Finland is committed to the EU's goal of protecting 30% of land and sea areas, and 10% of them strictly. The LULUCF regulation agrees how carbon sinks and greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector are considered in the EU's climate goals until 2030. Finland aims to keep forests as carbon sinks. When studying the environmental effects of land use/cover changes due to these policies, environmental influence on biodiversity, and ecosystem services (sustainability of forestry, and water quality) should be simultaneously considered. We modelled organic carbon loading from river basins under changes in global pressures (climate and deposition) by mathematical models. We combined the watershed scale model (Simply-C) with scenarios of climate change, atmospheric deposition, and forest use change (1985-2060). We used daily data from five global climate models (CMIP5) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For atmospheric sulphur deposition, we used the chemical transport model results that are based on the EMEP MSC-W model (v4.4) and the MATCH model results. We explored two forest use scenarios that focus on potential changes taking place in the forested areas in Finland: 1) forest management, and 2) forest protection. The forest management scenario was based on simulations of clear-cut following Finnish national recommendations with the PREBAS forest growth and carbon balance model. Forest protection scenarios were based on spatial data of forests with high conservation value, optimized by Zonation programme. Modelling results indicated that global influence (atmospheric deposition, climate change) seemed to weaken in southern Finland after 2016. That gave more space for the effect of local forest use change due to different EU land use policies. Forest use change was more influential in river basins dominated by organic soils than in mineral soils. In northern Finland brownification seemed to continue, mainly driven by climate change.

How to cite: Rankinen, K., Cano Bernal, J. E., Holmberg, M., Nordling, M., Schulz, T., Mäkelä, A., Mikkonen, N., Kujala, H., Jackson-Blake, L., De Wit, H., and Forsius, M.: Modelling the effects of forest use change on brownification of Finnish rivers under pressures of acidification and climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3958, 2024.

The loss of biodiversity from human activities on land is a widely-recognized, worldwide problem. Since the advent of the industrial revolution the loss of plant and animal species has increased dramatically, with 25% of species now at risk of extinction. Conventions and targets to protect biodiversity have been implemented, but with limited success. The Aichi targets for 2020, for example, were almost all missed, with worsening trends for 12 out of the 20 targets. One reason for this failure is the ineffective application of broad-scale measures that are not tailored to the underlying causes of biodiversity loss. Knowledge on the spatial and temporal distribution of anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity loss would therefore enable targeted interventions that address location-specific stressors and thus would be better-adapted measures to protect biodiversity.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has identified five main drivers of anthropogenic origin as the causes of biodiversity loss: land use, natural resource extraction, climate change, pollution, and invasive alien species. However, when seeking to quantify impacts on biodiversity, these drivers are still usually treated separately. We develop a Biodiversity Pressure Index (BPI) by quantifying and mapping data for nine indicators of the five drivers into a single, annually changing index with a spatial resolution of 0.1° at global scale covering the period 1990-2020.

We find that large areas (approximately 86%, including Antarctica, Greenland) are under major human pressure and that almost all areas have experienced an increase (about 96% of land) in pressure over the past thirty years. Industrialised regions had high pressure levels already in 1990 and continue to do so in 2020, whereas regions with rapid economic growth setting in after 2000 where low in pressure in 1990, but show high pressure levels today. Whilst areas impacted by human activities are increasing, areas of wilderness are decreasing to a point that in 2020, only 0.02% of the terrestrial land are entirely free from human influence. (Sub-) tropical wetlands and temperate grasslands are the biomes with the highest pressures today. And whilst land use is still one of the main factors, climate change - especially increasing temperature - is one of the major recent and future threats to biodiversity.

How to cite: Ramm, K., Brown, C., Arneth, A., and Rounsevell, M.: Human pressure on global land ecosystems and biodiversity increases notably from 1990-2020 - Development of a spatially explicit Biodiversity Pressure Index (BPI), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5708, 2024.

Ensuring robust pollination service is vital for sustainable food production, as three-quarters of crops require insect pollinators to reproduce, but many insect populations are rapidly declining.  Yet, it is widely reported that insect pollinators face increased extinction risk due to habitat loss and warming climate. The biological impact of global mean temperature projections on individual terrestrial ectotherms is often predicted to increase with the rate of warming. However, it also depends on the interdependence of the plant-pollinator network and the physiological sensitivity of ectotherms to temperature change over time. Here, we have used sampled plant-pollinator network data from different climatic zones and the Earth system model projected temperature data of different future projection scenarios. In this study, we present a mathematical framework for modeling species population dynamics using the Lotka-Volterra model, where parameters are integrated from empirical fitness curves of terrestrial insects at different latitudes. This approach also investigates how species abundance evolves in the twenty-first century with and without species management, focusing on maintaining a constant abundance of generalist species to avert sudden ecosystem collapses over declining environmental health. The results show that tropical networks are more sensitive in abundance and extinction to future temperature increase as they live very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species of temperate regions have broader thermal tolerance, so the warming may increase their abundance. This study offers insights into how different future temperature projections influence species management, thereby restoring the functional integrity of the entire ecosystem. Also, this study provides region-specific restoration guidelines, offers insights for agro-advisory services, informs sustainable cropping patterns, and optimizes resource allocation. 

How to cite: Datta, A., Dubey, S., and Bhatia, U.: Developing Restoration Strategies for Dynamic Population Changes of Plant-Pollinator Networks in a Warming Climate, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7473, 2024.

Mounting evidence from field observations has shown that high functional diversity is associated with strong ecosystem resilience and stability. However, plant ecology studies have focused on the passive response of global ecosystems to climatic changes while the impacts of plant-functional diversity on climate including its feedback are seldom addressed. Moreover, state-of-the-art climate models are insufficient to address such topics. Their land component models cover only a restricted range of present-day plant features, so that adaptation at the sub-grid scale is ignored. Based on a process-based plant functional trade-off scheme developed by Kleidon and Mooney (2000), we have set up a new vegetation model JeDi-BACH into the land component of the ICON-Earth System Model (ICON-ESM). The advantage of this new model is that the representation of global vegetation is an emergent outcome of environmental filtering following several well-known fundamental functional trade-offs that link plant functions to abiotic and biotic attributes. In such a way, plants dynamically adjust to the changing environment and meanwhile modify climate. With this new model, we present a series of sensitivity studies investigating the effect of plant trait diversity on the coupled vegetation-climate system in a coupled land-atmosphere setup. We found that high plant diversity ecosystems tend to stabilize terrestrial climate in a high water-turnover state, leading to a wet and cool climate. The enhancement in evapotranspiration with increasing diversity found in our study is consistent with the BEF (Biodiversity-Ecosystem Functioning) relationship derived from the field studies. Our modeling results demonstrate the importance of the "biodiversity-climate feedback" and highlight the role of plant functional diversity in shaping a robust climate.

Kleidon, A. and Mooney, H. A.: A global distribution of biodiversity inferred from climatic constraints: Results from a process-based modelling study, Glob. Chang. Biol., 6(5), 507–523, doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00332.x, 2000.

How to cite: Hu, P., Reick, C. H., Kleidon, A., and Claussen, M.: Plant diversity-climate interactions from a modeling perspective, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10432, 2024.

The significance of considering vertical layers in studying soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics within wetlands arises from the interplay of hydrological and ecological factors across various soil depths, where anaerobic conditions prevail in the deeper layers. This anaerobic environment significantly influences microbial processes, leading to methane production rather than carbon dioxide. Factors such as the accumulation of organic material, temperature gradients, and fluctuations in the water table contribute to diverse SOC dynamics across different vertical strata. Understanding these variations in vertical layers is crucial for accurate assessments of carbon stocks, greenhouse gas emissions, and the overall role of wetlands in the global carbon cycle. Such understanding is essential for devising effective conservation and management strategies, particularly in the face of climate change and land-use modifications impacting wetlands.  To model these dynamics, a vertical extension of the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model can be successfully employed in conjunction with the Richardson equation. This combined approach simulates the influence of soil moisture flux on the transport of carbon throughout the soil column. The specific scenario examined is focused on the growth of rice in the Ebro Delta lands and on the carbon flux emissions in the Ria de Aveiro Coastal lagoon, both sites being part of the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network and the eLTER RI community.  This work contributes to the research activities carried out by the authors within the projects H2020 eLTER PLUS, HE RESTORE4Cs, and PNRR - “National Biodiversity Future Centre”, funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

How to cite: Marangi, C., Bohaienko, V., Diele, F., Martiradonna, A., and Provenzale, A.: A vertical RothC model for simulating the Soil Organic Carbon  dynamics in coastal wetland environments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10869, 2024.

To develop climate change mitigation strategies, it is necessary to identify variables that facilitate the modeling of prospective scenarios. There are a large number of variables that must be analyzed in an integrated manner in order for scenarios to be proposed that include the particularities of a given area, measuring the possible effects of this phenomenon in terms of productivity. Identifying and analyzing variables and their variations over time enables fundamental predictions to understand the potential environmental impacts on ecosystems and human activity. Understanding these variables is important to support decision-making, policy development and implementing actions that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and guarantee food security. This research study not only seeks to determine the technical variables, which are fundamental in predictive models, but also sets out to emphasize the importance of integrating social and economic aspects that can become decisive factors.

Rural areas in Colombia, with the department of Cundinamarca used as a case study, have been affected in various ways by climate change [1]. This scenario represents a challenge that needs to be addressed in a prioritized manner to ensure food security and independence, economic development, sustainability, livestock and human health, among other aspects that precisely relate to the development of a region. To propose solutions, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as an innovative alternative that makes it possible to process large amounts of data and find patterns, correlations and trends that can provide an understanding of the variables’ behavior, as well as develop systems to adapt to climate change. Therefore, identifying variables to apply advanced AI models to forecast the effects of climate change in a given region is a fundamental step towards generating an efficient and accurate tool to establish mitigation actions in a region that, together with the implementation of policies and actions that promote sustainability, will strengthen communities’ current capacity for action.

The variables identified include economic structure, access to technological resources, governance models, education levels, access to public services, poverty rate, demographics and crop price references. Through AI models and an in-depth analysis of available information, these types of models will become more precise for the implementation of early warning systems (EWS) and sustainable practices, as well as strengthen infrastructure. Historically in Colombia, rural areas are the most vulnerable to climate change given that they have fewer economic and technological resources that enable them to adapt to its impacts, with the most frequent phenomena being torrential rainfall, extreme flooding and forest fires; events associated with climate change.

• Peña Q, Andrés J, Arce B, Blanca A, Boshell V, J. Francisco, Paternina Q, María J, Ayarza M, Miguel A, & Rojas B, Edwin O. (2011). Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá. Agronomía Colombiana, 29(2), 467-478. Retrieved January 09, 2024, from http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0120-99652011000200014&lng=en&tlng=en.

How to cite: Felibert Álvarez, D. J., Guineme Baracaldo, M. E., Triana Forero, J. A., Solano Meza, J. K., and Rodrigo-Ilarri, J.: Identification of socio-economic variables to implement advanced artificial intelligence models to manage climate change risk, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12455, 2024.

In the temperate region, inter-annual variation of air temperature affects leaf phenology, i.e., timings of leaf emergence and growth in spring and defoliation in autumn. These changes have significant impacts not only on the canopy of dominant trees of forest ecosystems, but also on the seasonal light environment within the forest understory which further influences the growth and survival of tree seedlings, shrubs, and herbaceous species. Consequently, global warming is expected to influence biodiversity by altering species-specific growth responses to the environmental shifts, affecting primary production and hence the progress of vegetation succession. Therefore, in order to comprehensively monitor and assess the state and changes in forest ecosystems across wide geographical and decadal scales, it is important to observe leaf phenology at both the species and ecosystem scales, which is considered one of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs).

The objective of this study is to investigate the decadal-scale change of the leaf phenology in deciduous forest in Japan. We examined 20-year changes of the dates of leaf emergence, leaf area index (LAI) reached its maximum, and defoliation by using in-situ and satellite data. The in-situ remote sensing has been conducted by a spectroradiometer and automated digital cameras on a canopy tower since 2003 at a deciduous forest in Takayama site, located in the cool-temperate region in the central Japan. The system is part of the Phenological Eyes Network (PEN). We estimated the dates of leaf emergence, maximum LAI, and defoliation based on the seasonal pattern on the Green-Red Vegetation Index (GRVI). These dates exhibit notable inter-annual variations, and notably, the date of maximum LAI occurrence tended to shift earlier over the 20-years period from 2004 to 2023. Those inter-annual variations in the leaf phenology were strongly related to the air temperature. Based on the knowledge gained at the Takayama site, we then examined the spatial distribution and annual changes of phenology of the deciduous forests in Honshu Island with satellite-GRVI. We will discuss the spatial and temporal changes in phenology along the environmental gradient and rising air temperature due to global warming, and evaluate the sensitivity or tolerance of these forests by focusing on species composition and geographical characteristics.

The authors thank PEN for sharing the data of spectral reflectance and canopy images.

How to cite: Noda, H., Takeuchi, Y., and Muraoka, H.: Assessing the 20-Year Changes in Leaf Phenology of Temperate Deciduous Forests in Japan Using in-situ and Satellite-GRVI, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15339, 2024.

Forest carbon sequestration is a key part of the European transition to carbon neutrality. Quantification of forest carbon sequestration rates relies on relies on successful integration of high volumes of remote sensing and in-situ data arriving at ever increasing velocities with a bewildering variety of “long tail” and legacy data. Research Infrastructures (RIs) can add value to these data by supporting their harmonised, cross-site collection, curation and publication and by providing a platform for assessing data veracity. Integration of RI networks through site co-location and standardised observation methods has been proposed as one way of dealing with the Big Data needed to quantify societally relevant environmental processes including those related to the carbon cycle. However, the full potential of RI network integration as a tool to improve environmental understanding has yet to be realised.

Here, we review current successes, identify challenges to better integration, and suggest ways forward. We provide recommendations for scientists, site managers and policy makers that will support the transition to a Big Data approach to quantifying and communicating forest carbon sequestration using the Swedish situation as an example.

How to cite: Futter, M., Högbom, L., Moldan, F., Peacock, M., and Villwock, H.: Challenges and Opportunities for Research Infrastructure Co-location to Improve Understanding of Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in Northern European Forests, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15707, 2024.

Given the significant human-induced changes in biodiversity and climate, the link between atmospheric and biological measurements is crucial to improve our understanding of atmosphere-biosphere feedbacks. Changes in climate and biodiversity influence the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from plants, leading to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA). These BSOA can have diverse effects, including influencing Earth's radiative balance and impacting cloud and precipitation formation. However, at present, it is unclear how changing biodiversity will lead to changes in BVOC emissions, BSOA and their corresponding effects. We present a conceptual framework of the relationships between biodiversity and BVOC emissions based on our current mechanistic understanding and combining knowledge from the fields of biology and atmospheric chemistry. In this framework, first, we hypothesized that mixed forests enable resource partitioning, often leading to higher stand productivity and leaf area index, thus emitting higher amounts of BVOC. Second, given the significant difference in biotic and abiotic stress in monoculture and mixture plots, we hypothesized that increasing tree diversity would decrease BVOC emissions. We tested the effect of tree diversity on BVOC emission and BSOA formation in this framework by varying tree species richness, including monocultures, two- and four-species mixtures at the MyDiv experimental site in Germany. We quantified nine different BVOCs from the investigated plots, i.e., α-pinene, camphene, β-pinene, 3-carene, p-cymene, limonene, α-terpinene, isophorone, and acetophenone. The relative differences in tree monocultures and mixtures show that the overall concentration of BVOC decreases with increasing biodiversity. For BSOA, a total of fifteen BSOA compounds have been quantified, including diaterpenylic acid acetate [DTAA], 3-methyl-1,2,3-butanetricarboxylic acid [MBTCA], norpinonic acid, pinonic acid, terebic acid, terpenylic acid, pinic acid, adipic acid, pimelic acid, azelaic acid, suberic acid, succinic acid, glutaric acid, salicylic acid, and sebacic acid. The relative differences in tree monocultures and mixtures for BSOA showed mixed and overall non-significant results. A deeper understanding of how changing biodiversity influences biogenic organic compound emissions and biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation requires in-depth investigations of microclimate conditions, accurate monitoring of above- and below-ground biotic and abiotic stress, and manipulating stress conditions across long-term biodiversity experiments. Our findings highlight the need for multidisciplinary work at the interface between the biosphere and the atmosphere to better understand the reciprocal effects of biodiversity and climate change.

How to cite: Sanaei, A., Herrmann, H., Alshaabi, L., Beck, J., Ferlian, O., Fomba, K. W., Haferkorn, S., van Pinxteren, M., Quaas, J., Quosh, J., Rabe, R., Wirth, C., Eisenhauer, N., and Weigelt, A.: Biodiversity changes atmospheric chemistry through plant volatiles and particles, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16679, 2024.

There exists an urgent need to address the ongoing nature crisis, and businesses must play a pivotal role in fostering positive change. As a result, there has been a significant increase in corporate attention on biodiversity. In response to this attention, several frameworks for companies to report their impacts on nature have emerged, including the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). These frameworks set out steps for companies wanting to make a positive impact and include nature in business, particularly through determining their proximity to ecologically sensitive locations.

Our advanced prioritisation tool enables screening of any site in the world (both terrestrial and marine assets) for its proximity to ecologically sensitive locations. This tool incorporates metrics including Ecological Integrity, Decline in Ecological Integrity, Areas of High Physical Water Stress, Areas of High Potential Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity Sensitive Areas. Our tool aligns with best practices and with reporting guidance and standards (TNFD and CSRD).

By leveraging our screening tool, businesses can turn data-driven insights into responsible nature-positive actions.

How to cite: Piovano, T., Jenkins, R., Burnell, L., Burke, C., and Wilebore, B.: A comprehensive tool for prioritising ecologically sensitive locations and driving nature-positive actions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16765, 2024.

Forests cover approximately 31% of the global land area and are home to 80% of the Earth's terrestrial biodiversity. Humans depend on forests for countless ecosystem services, but these ecosystems are highly vulnerable to human-induced climate change. As our climate undergoes dynamic changes, it is imperative to implement automated monitoring systems to quantify canopy growth and assess changes occurring within forest structures, especially at the level of individual trees, to determine the response of forests to climate anomalies. In this context, tree canopy detection can be considered one of the most important applications using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) as it can be used to obtain information on numerous essential ecosystem variables (EEVs) such as gross primary productivity, leaf area index, etc. for individual trees or shed light on essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) such as ecosystem structure and function. However, due to the plethora of information available, users may find it challenging to apply UAVs and algorithms to their specific projects. Hence, an integrated, seamless platform that can process UAV-acquired images to generate ortho-mosaics, detect individual trees, and monitor specific traits (including ecosystem structure and function) is the need of the hour.

In this study, a platform, Drone4Tree, has been developed using Streamlit and Flask to provide an end-to-end solution for generating orthomosaics and delineating individual tree crowns from UAV images. Users simply upload raw UAV survey data and receive the final results. The complete processing chain is carried out on our high-end servers, which is an advantage for users with limited computing resources. The developed web application uses open-source algorithms, models, and frameworks for easy implementation of components such as orthomosaic (structure from motion in OpenDroneMap), tree canopy detection (DeepForest and U-Net segmentation), and downloading of results. The platform offers two processing modes: standard and advanced. The standard mode comes with default parameters for orthomosaic generation and tree canopy detection, benefiting users with no experience in UAV image processing. The advanced mode allows users to customize the processes, such as the scale of the generated canopy boundary or patch size for large images. It also extends its functionality towards analysis-ready drone image time series (incl. a co-registration of orthomosaics to a reference image using the AROSICS method and reprojection using the geospatial data abstraction library (GDAL)). Finally, the processing outcomes can be easily downloaded using the generated links. 

The web app was used to generate a time series of individual tree canopies, which provided a deeper understanding of changes in EEVs during a phenological cycle. The canopy boundaries can also be used to generate spectral libraries for tree species from high spatial resolution hyperspectral images, which has several applications in species detection and mapping. This platform can guide other users wishing to efficiently produce individual tree canopy boundaries for large areas without investing substantial time tailoring imagery acquisition and processing parameters. The resulting tree canopy boundaries can provide opportunities to characterize individual trees' species, size, condition, and location and are critical resources for advancing ecological theory and informing forest management.

How to cite: Gupta, S. K., Schulze, F., Gründling, R., and Mallast, U.: Drone4Tree: A cloud-based geospatial platform for large-scale UAV data processing and tree canopy detection, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18370, 2024.

Climate change and biodiversity loss are increasingly considered jointly, particularly to find optimal solutions for both crises and to avoid negative side-effects and feedbacks. Much research has been devoted to predicting the effects of climatic changes on the distribution of species, but the consequences of biodiversity changes for the climate system are less understood. For instance, what are the main aspects (species richness, functional diversity, land cover patchiness) and mechanisms through which biodiversity interacts with the climate? Do landscapes with different levels of diversity contribute differently to climate regulation or feedbacks? How do human choices such as nature conservation or natural resources production affect the climate? To address these questions, we combine observational and modelling approaches in a collaborative effort of ecologists and climate scientists.

First, we present how ecosystem diversity affects forests’ climate response (indicated by interannual variability in summer NDVI) and climate effect (indicated by interannual variability in summer LST), using 20 years (2003-2022) of remote sensing data at 1 km resolution over Europe. We consider different diversity levels (taxonomic, functional, structural) together with various ecosystem, topography, soil, and climate predictors in a multiple linear regression with Ridge regularisation. This approach allows isolating the effects of specific biodiversity aspects (e.g. tree species richness, forest edge density), functional properties (e.g. leaf type, leaf traits), and structure (e.g. canopy height, tree cover density), and determining the sign and magnitude of their contribution. We show which aspects and scales of biodiversity are relevant for ecosystem stability and climate regulation, respectively, and classify forests into response and effect types that could be considered in coupled biosphere-atmosphere models.

Second, we discuss how biodiversity aspects can be integrated into the coupled biosphere-atmosphere regional climate model COSMO-CLM² to quantify their effects on land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks over Europe. We demonstrate one approach, utilising future land cover scenarios derived from the Nature Futures Framework that represent different value perspectives on nature (intrinsic, instrumental, and relational), habitat types from EUNIS (European Nature Information System), and species abundances from EVA (European Vegetation Archive). Our results show temperature differences of up to several degrees locally, with enhanced temperature sensitivities under hot and dry conditions. Such findings can help identify synergies between biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and adaptation, and support the development of effective policy solutions.

Finally, this presentation will provide perspectives for research at the interface of biodiversity and climate change.

How to cite: Sieber, P., Schwaab, J., Karger, D., and Seneviratne, S. and the FeedBaCks consortium: Exploring climate-biodiversity interactions in observational data and models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19043, 2024.

The loss of pristine old-growth boreal forest landscapes due to the intensive management for timber production has caused both a severe decline of forest biodiversity in Northern Europe as well as significantly altered their carbon stocks and dynamics. Understanding of the dynamics of old-growth forests is needed to evaluate the consequences of different forest management and conservation strategies on climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. It is increasingly suggested that integrated forest management and conservation planning is required to secure both biodiversity and carbon storage values. However, it is insufficiently known how closely these values coincide at the local level, i.e., whether the same structural and quality features in old-growth forests support both high biodiversity and carbon stock.

The objectives of this study were, first, to explore the dynamics of stand growth and carbon sequestration in boreal old-growth forests and second, to investigate whether the occurrence of red-listed epiphytic forest lichens coincides with high carbon stock and structural features related to it. The study was based on an extensive repeated forest inventory dataset collected between 1990 and 2019 in southern Finland and a lichen inventory conducted during 2020 – 2021 at the same sites.

The estimated volume of standing trees and deadwood were higher in the studied forest stands than in managed forests on average. Estimates of net primary production showed varying trends of carbon sequestration among the study plots. Stand gross growth increased by 50% during the study period. The standing volume remained stable because a large proportion of the biomass increment was allocated to deadwood. The study sites showed a high occurrence of red-listed epiphytic lichens. No relationship was found between the species richness of red-listed lichens and the aboveground carbon stock. However, a significant negative relationship was found between the number of red-listed lichen occurrences and carbon stock.  The species richness of red-listed lichens showed a strong unimodal response to the aboveground carbon stock change: the highest species richness was associated with intermediate carbon sinks.

Our results highlight the major role of tree mortality driving the carbon dynamics of old-growth forests, with simultaneous benefits for deadwood-associated species. However, more research is needed on the stability of carbon stocks of forests in the face of shifting disturbance regimes due to climate change. While the species richness of red-listed epiphytic lichens had a neutral relationship with the aboveground carbon stock size, we observed fewer occurrences in carbon-rich forests, and lower species richness and occurrences in plots with large carbon sinks. Therefore, if climate benefits are sought with methods that increase stand density, negative impacts may be expected on lichen species that fare poorly in dense stands with low light. Additionally, high carbon sequestration in fast-growing stands may come at the expense of reduced biodiversity.

In summary, this study supports the idea that old-growth forests provide considerable benefits regarding both climate change mitigation and biodiversity. Therefore, increasing the area of old-growth forests would simultaneously support these key goals.

How to cite: Akujärvi, A., Nirhamo, A., Heikkinen, R. K., Pykälä, J., Saikkonen, O., Green, T., Peltoniemi, M., and Mäkelä, A.: Exploring the carbon dynamics and epiphytic lichen diversity of boreal old-growth forests , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19803, 2024.

Rapid and accurate assessments of ecological responses to environmental changes are key to the development of effective measures aimed at the mitigation of detrimental effects on the integrity of ecosystems and the provision of services that support the livelihoods of billions of people worldwide. Traditionally, however, the study of ecological communities has relied on laborious and complex taxonomic work, that undermines the feasibility and practicality of urgent monitoring programmes.

In the last two decades, the emerging field of environmental DNA analysis has opened to the possibility to study complex systems at a fraction of the original time and financial costs, hence producing vast amounts of vital information. Here, we utilised DNA metabarcoding analysis of bioaerosol samples collected during 2019 at the Leipzig Canopy Crane to study seasonal variations in airborne fungal and plant species composition, in relation to changes in humidity, wind, and temperature. Preliminary results show significant differences in both plant and fungal communities. Specifically, climatic differences between the coldest and warmest months significantly affect the taxa Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, whereas the period between March and April reportedly displayed an increase in the abundance of anemophilous plants and members of the genus Salix. Lastly, with this study we intend to showcase the importance of long-term monitoring programmes of environmental DNA for investigating the implications of climate change.

How to cite: Fedele, E., Gemeinholzer, B., Richter, R., Wirth, C., and Sánchez-Parra, B.: The Leipzig Canopy Crane experiment: DNA metabarcoding of air samples to monitor seasonal variations in airborne fungal and plant communities composition, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20282, 2024.

It is a challenge to obtain information about the geologic formations and their succession in Africa due to lack of on-line lexicons for most regions.  Therefore, we established AfricaLex as a free public online database that includes details on the geologic formations in all major basins, onshore and offshore, of Africa.

AfricaLex (https://africalex.geolex.org/) offers search for geologic formations in the database by standard search criteria (name, partial name, age, region, lithology keywords, or any combination), and a map-based graphic user interface with stratigraphic-column navigation. The returned entries can be displayed by-age or in alphabetical order. Each formation is color-coded based on the Geologic Time Scale 2020, and with digitized regional extent in GeoJSON format. These enable plotting of the individual formations or time-slices of all formations across Africa of a user-selected age, with each regional-extent filled with their appropriate lithologic facies pattern, onto any of three proposed plate reconstruction models with a single click.

The aim is to make information on Africa geology and its component geologic formations more to accessible to geologists and the general public from the world and for improving paleogeographic maps.  Users can obtain a view of the sediments and volcanics that were accumulating at any time across the ancient land of Africa.These lexicon systems will be interlinked to other stratigraphic and paleogeographic databases through the lUGS Deep-Time Digital Earth platform.

How to cite: Du, W., Ogg, J., Ogg, G., Bobick, R., LeBlanc, J., Juvane, M., Levy, D. J., Sivathanu, A., Mishra, S., Qian, Y., and Chang, S.: Geologic formation database for Africa with projections onto plate reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2270, 2024.

In a successful collaboration with numerous regional experts on the stratigraphy of Southeast Asia and the Middle East, our international team developed cloud-based stratigraphic lexicons with graphical user-interfaces. These databases consist of the Indian Plate (indplex.geolex.org) of nearly 1000 onshore and offshore sedimentary and volcanic formations across India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, of southeast Asian regions (chinalex.geolex.org; thailex.geolex.org; vietlex.geolex.org; japanlex.geolex.org) with ca. 5000 formations as of January 2024), and of Middle East regions (mideastlex.geolex.org; qatarlex.geolex.org). The entries for each formation contain details on the succession of lithology, as well as the fossils present, age range, regional distribution and associated images. APIs enable easy access and integration with other applications. A comprehensive search system allows users to retrieve information on all geologic formations for a specific date or geologic stage from multiple databases. The cloud-based databases and websites can be explored through user-friendly map and stratigraphic-column interfaces generated from TimeScale Creator software.

Regional extents of each formation in GeoJSON format enables visualization as facies-pattern-filled polygons projected onto three proposed plate reconstructions of its corresponding time interval; or as time slices of regional paleogeography. These lexicon systems will be interlinked to other stratigraphic and paleogeographic databases through the lUGS Deep-Time Digital Earth platform. This comprehensive approach allows one better comprehend deep-time dynamics and gain valuable insights into the evolution of the different regions of our planet Earth.

How to cite: Mamallapalli, O., Datla, R. D., Hou, H., Granier, B., Addula, N. R., LeBlanc, J., Ogg, J., Siddiqui, N. K., Shafer, C., Ogg, G., and Du, W.: South East Asia and Middle East Geologic Formation Databases with Visualizations on Plate Reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2425, 2024.

Building paleogeographic maps that are projected onto different tectonic plate reconstruction models requires team efforts to compile extensive interlinked databases of regional sedimentary and volcanic facies, data sharing standards, and computer projection methods. Two goals of the Deep-Time Digital Earth (DDE) program of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) Paleogeography Working Group are: (1) to interconnect online national databases for all geologic formations, and to compile these online "lexicons" for countries that currently lack these; (2) to project the combined paleogeographic output of these distributed databases for any time interval onto appropriate plate tectonic reconstructions.

Therefore, we have worked with regional experts to compile and interlink cloud-based lexicons for different regions of the world that are enhanced by graphic user-interfaces. Online lexicons with map-based and stratigraphic-column navigation are currently completed for the Indian Plate (ca. 800 formations), China (ca. 3200), Vietnam-Thailand-Malaysia (ca. 600), and all major basins in Africa (ca. 700) and in the Middle East (ca. 700 formations). These will soon be joined by Japan (ca. 600 formations) and basins in South America (ca. 700 formations). A multi-database search system (age, region, lithology keywords, etc.) enables all returned entries be displayed by-age or in alphabetical order. The genera in the "fossil" field are auto-linked to their entries and images in the online Treatise of Invertebrate Paleontology. With a single click, a user can plot the original extent of the geologic formation (or an array of regional formations of a specified age) onto different plate reconstruction models with the polygon(s) filled with the appropriate lithologic facies pattern(s). Our team collaborated with the Macrostrat team at Univ. Wisconsin (Madison) to interlink with their extensive regional facies-time compilations for North America and the ocean basins to enable a near-global coverage. Following the lead of Macrostrat's ROCKD app, this project is in partnership with UNESCO's Commission for the Geologic Map of the World and other geological surveys to enable linking online geologic map units for direct access to the lexicon details on that geologic formation and its former paleogeographic setting. Essentially, goal is to create a view of the sediments and volcanics that were accumulating onto the Earth's surface at any time in the past.

The main website (https://geolex.org) has links to the growing array of regional lexicons.

How to cite: Ogg, J., Du, W., Sivathanu, A., Chang, S., Mishra, S., Zahirovic, S., Ault, A., Mamallapalli, O., Li, H., Hou, M., and Ogg, G.: Online databases of the geologic formations of Asia and Africa with display onto plate reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2473, 2024.

There is an increasing availability of geoscientific exploration data for the oil and gas industry. Supporting data-driven tools have become important for the optimization and geoscientific information gain from this kind of data and thus allowing a fastest and more trustable decision making. Nonetheless, the development of this kind of technology depends on the standardization of the data and its descriptive methodologies, that many times diverges between the geoscientists and its many data sources, that recurrently comes from different scales of samples. The complexity of non-conventional reservoir, like the ones from brazilian pre-salt, increases those pre-existing difficulties. In this sense, this work evaluates the results of a semi-supervised Machine-learning methodology that was applied to the aptian carbonates of Barra Velha formation, from the Santos Basin pre-salt. This methodology follows a PU-learning approach with the utilization of the Random-forest algorithm based on public data from geological cores, side samples and geophysical data from the corresponding depths of the Barra Velha carbonates. A team of geoscientists provided a carbonate facies grouping, and this work regrouped it based on quantitative and qualitative descriptions, and in depositional criteria related for those samples, aiming to better utilize this data for Machine-learning. To deal with the fact that the samples belong for different scales and data-sources, the classified samples from geological cores were select as “labeled”, and the rest of it was defined as “unlabeled”, establishing a criteria for description of the samples and that fits the workflow for semi-supervisioned Machine-learning. Model evaluation metric were analyzed and compared to results of a regular supervisioned model approach. The results show that the overall precision of the semi-supervisioned model has increased significantly by 10% in relation to the supersivioned methodology, and critical suggestions were made based on the results for motivation of future researches from this topic.

How to cite: Abreu Affonso, P. V., Spadano Albuquerque, A. L., and Durante Spigolon, A. L.: Semi-Supervised Machine Learning for Predicting Lacustrine Carbonate Facies in theBarra Velha Formation, Santos Basin, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3558, 2024.

How to cite: Li, H., Cheng, H., Zahirovic, S., and Wang, Y.: WebGPlates: A Unity-based Tool For Enhancing Paleogeographic Research, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4485, 2024.

Global Earth reconstruction maps are used as baseline information for many studies, with high-level impacts and large implications. Yet, virtually no study fundamentally question the reliability of those reconstructions. In many cases, the model the study uses is not even credited. The reason for the absence of such discussion probably lies in the fact that none of the plate tectonic / palæogeographic modellers themselves have been able so far to assess the reliability of their own maps.

Why? First, because actually, there are ‘palæo-continental’, ‘plate tectonics’, ‘palæo-environmental’, and ‘palæogeographic’-types of reconstruction and it is difficult to compare apples and oranges. Second, because the workflow, definition, standard and vocabulary used to by the modellers can be quite different. And third and overall, because data, which reconstructions are based upon, may be contradictory and modellers must make choices.

If, for example, 4 data suggest a collision at a given time and a fifth does not, can we state that the model should display a collision zone at the 80% confidence level? What geological information is undoubtedly a proof of a collision? If among the 5 data, 2 corresponds to flysch-series, 1 corresponds to S-type granite, the 4th to tectonic unconformities and structural deformation, and the 5th is the definition of a retrograde path of metamorphic P – T conditions, is it sufficient to talk about collision, and do the 5 data have the same weight in terms of uncertainties? What about if the model does not display the collision zone at time the 4 first data suggest collision, but does display collision at the next time slice in agreement with the 5th information?

Contradictory data and debatable choices will always exist, and the existence of numerous global Earth reconstruction models is thus a wealth. However, in order to talk about uncertainties and to allow some intercomparison, the modellers of the Earth reconstruction community must collaborate, form an International Panel for Earth Reconstruction (IPER), and lay the foundation for shared definitions, concepts, vocabulary, and FAIR principles. A quantification of uncertainty on past reconstructions may then possibly be achieved by intercomparison between various models.

How to cite: Vérard, C., Franziskakis, F., and Giuliani, G.: Intercomparison and Definition of Uncertainties of Deep-Time Global Earth Reconstructions: What’s the problem?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5551, 2024.

The conductive heat transport in the lithosphere is less efficient than the convective heat transport in the asthenospheric mantle. Therefore, the lithosphere behaves as a thermal insulation above the asthenospheric mantle. As a consequence, the temperature in the mantle can increase, also affecting the rheological structure of the mantle, both in the asthenosphere and at the base of the lithosphere. As the thickness of the thermal lithosphere can vary laterally from less than 100 km to more than 200 km under cratonic domains, the impact of thermal insulation can vary geographically. Therefore, the variation of lithospheric thickness may affect the efficiency of the heat transport from the asthenosphere to the lithospheric mantle. Using thermo-mechanical numerical models, we investigate how lateral variation of lithospheric thickness affects the heat flow to the surface, the convective pattern inside the asthenospheric mantle and the impacts of thermal evolution of cratonic keel over time scales of hundreds of million years. We test scenarios considering different lateral positions for the cratonic keel, scenarios with relative movement between lithosphere and asthenospheric mantle to emulate lateral movement over geological time. We also test the impacts of assuming different mantle potential temperatures for the asthenosphere. Additionally, yield strength envelopes are calculated in different portions of the lithosphere in the numerical domain to assess the impact of the thermal insulation to the rheological structure of the lithosphere. The preliminary results indicate that rising/hot thermal anomalies tend to concentrate at the base of cratonic keels, which may eventually act as a weakening effect in the lithosphere. In scenarios with relative movement, we observe a systematic shift in the location of hot thermal anomalies in the opposite direction of the relative movement.

How to cite: Macedo Silva, J. P., Sacek, V., and Manatschal, G.: Dynamic interaction between thermal insulation by cratonic keels and asthenospheric convection: insights from numerical experiments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5938, 2024.

Earthquakes occur in a depth range where the physical conditions allow rocks to behave as brittle and to deform in a stick-slip fashion. This range is limited by the so-called upper and lower seismogenic depths, which are input parameters for bounding seismogenic ruptures in models of seismic hazard assessment.

Usually, such limits are estimated from the observed depth distribution of hypocenters. An exact estimation is not possible, because earthquake locations (and particularly hypocentral depths) are uncertain. Also, the sample of observed earthquakes is finite, and shallower or deeper earthquakes than those so far observed at a site could eventually happen. For these reasons, the extreme values of the distribution (the shallowest and the deepest earthquakes in the sample) are weak estimators, especially if a small sample (with few earthquakes) is used.

A common, more statistically robust, proxy to those limits is a given percentile of the distribution of earthquake depths. For example, the 90%, 95% or 99% percentiles (named D90, D95 or D99, respectively) are frequently used as proxies to the lower seismogenic depth. But the actual uncertainties of such estimates are, so far, not properly assessed.

Here I present a method for calculating such percentiles with an unbiased estimator and quantifying their uncertainties in detail.

Earthquakes are more easily missed (more difficult to detect) the deeper they are. So earthquake catalogues preferentially contain shallow events. To avoid this bias, only those events with magnitude at least equal to the magnitude of completeness of the sample are regarded.

A mapping procedure is used in order to highlight spatial variations of seismogenic depths, considering, for each point in the map, the subsample of its closest earthquakes. Uncertainties arising from the finite sample size are dealt with by using bootstrap.

Each hypocentral location is randomized in space in a Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the reported location uncertainties. Also, crustal earthquakes can be considered separately from deeper ones, by truncating the hypocentral depth distribution with a Moho model for which the uncertainty can also be taken into account.

This procedure allows calculating statistically robust maps of the seismogenic depths with a realistic treatment of their uncertainties, as exemplified with the analysis of a regional seismic catalogue.

How to cite: González, Á.: Robust estimation of seismogenic depths and their uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6149, 2024.

The Earth's interior structure must be inferred from geophysical observations collected at the surface. Compared to just a few decades ago, the amount of geophysical data available today is voluminous and growing exponentially. Dense seismic networks like USArray, AlpArray, and AusArray now enable joint inversions of various geophysical data types to maximise subsurface resolution at scales ranging from local to continental. However, the practical application of joint inversions faces several challenges:

• Various geophysical techniques typically probe different scales and depths, complicating the choice of an appropriate discretisation for the Earth's interior.
• Different geophysical observables may respond to physical properties that are not directly related (e.g., density and electrical conductivity), making the construction of self-consistent parameterisations a non-trivial task.
• Without a comprehensive understanding of noise characteristics, standard methods require assigning weights to different data sets, yet robust choices remain elusive.

Capable of overcoming these recognised challenges and allowing estimates of model uncertainty, probabilistic inversions have grown in popularity in the geosciences over the last few decades, and have been successfully applied to specific modelling problems. Here, we present BayesBridge, a user-friendly Python package for generalised transdimensional and hierarchical Bayesian inference. Computationally optimised through Cython, our software offers multi-processing capabilities and runs smoothly on both standard computers and computer clusters. As opposed to existing software libraries, BayesBridge provides high-level functionalities to define complex parameterisations, with prior probabilities (defined by uniform, Gaussian, or custom density functions) that may or may not be dependent on depth and/or geographic coordinates. By default, BayesBridge employs reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo for sampling the posterior probability, with the option of parallel tempering, but its low-level features enable effortless implementations of arbitrary sampling criteria. Utilising object-oriented programming principles, BayesBridge ensures that each component of the inversion -- such as the discretisation, the physical properties to be inferred, and the data noise -- is a self-contained unit. This design facilitates the seamless integration of various forward solvers and data sets, promoting the use of multiple data types in geophysical inversions.

How to cite: Magrini, F., He, J., and Sambridge, M.: Streamlining Multi-Data Geophysical Inference with BayesBridge, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6992, 2024.

The surge in academic publications mirrors the evolutionary strides of human civilization, marked by an exponential growth in their numbers. Addressing the lacuna in well-organized academic retrieval systems for geoscientists, the Geo-Literature system emerges as a transformative tool. This system, boasting a vast repository of over seven million papers and information on four million scholars, employs cutting-edge technology to reshape the landscape of academic search, analysis, and visualization within the geoscience domain.

Driven by the necessity to bridge the gap between modeling frameworks and geological constraints, Geo-Literature incorporates geoscience knowledge mining and representation technologies. Through its intelligent update and fusion system, it not only integrates new publications but also analyzes language, space, and time relationships, effectively overcoming challenges posed by knowledge ambiguity. The platform's geoscience knowledge interaction and presentation technology facilitate intelligent retrieval, recommendation systems, and the creation of comprehensive scholarly portraits.

The impact of Geo-Literature transcends conventional academic boundaries. Establishing associations, mapping key attributes, and providing hierarchical visualizations, the system assists researchers in uncovering knowledge and forming a nuanced understanding of the academic space in geosciences. Consequently, Geo-Literature not only enhances the efficiency of paper retrieval but also contributes to broader scientific goals by fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and advancing our comprehension of Earth's deep-time processes.

How to cite: Xu, Y., Deng, C., Cai, S., Xue, B., and Wang, X.: Navigating the Academic Landscape: Intelligent Retrieval Systems for Geoscience Exploration, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7570, 2024.

The Panalesis model (Vérard, 2019) was developed in a preliminary version according to concepts, methods and tools that follow the work carried out for more than 20 years at the University of Lausanne (Stampfli & Borel, 2002; Hochard, 2008). Although the techniques are relevant, development under ArcGIS® does not allow visibility and easy accessibility of the model to the scientific community.

A major effort is therefore underway to migrate the entire model to an open source version using a FAIR approach for research software (Chue Hong et al., 2021). This migration concerns both the plate tectonic maps covering all the world over the entire Phanerozoic and part of the Neoproterozoic, but also the creation of paleoDEMs (global quantified topographies).

The Panalesis model and its entire architecture is therefore currently migrated to QGIS (a free and open source geographic information system). TopographyMaker, the software designed to convert polylines from the reconstruction map into a points grid with elevation values is now working as a plugin on QGIS. The output palaeoDEMS will also be published according to the FAIR principles for scientific data management and stewardship (Wilkinson et al., 2016).

The development and future refinements of TopographyMaker will enhance the Earth system modelling, especially coupling between models of different shells of the Earth such as atmospheric circulation, climatic evolution, and mantle dynamics. The topography is, for instance, considered a first order controlling factor for CO₂ evolution over geological timescales, through silicate weathering (MacDonald et al., 2019).

How to cite: Franziskakis, F., Vérard, C., and Giuliani, G.: Reconstructing the Earth in Deep-Time: A New and Open Framework for the PANALESIS Model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7977, 2024.

Full waveform inversion (FWI) has become a commonly used tool to obtain high resolution subsurface images from seismic waveform data. Typically, FWI is solved using a local optimisation method which finds one model that best fits observed data. Due to the high non-linearity and non-uniqueness of FWI problems, finding globally best-fitting solutions is not necessarily desirable since they fit noise in the data, and quantifying uncertainties in the solution is challenging. In principle, Bayesian FWI calculates a posterior probability distribution function (pdf), which describes all possible model solutions and their probabilities. However, characterising the posterior pdf by sampling alone is often intractably expensive due to the high dimensionality of FWI problems and the computational expense of their forward functions. Alternatively, variational inference solves Bayesian FWI problems efficiently by minimising the difference between a predefined (variational) family of distributions and the true posterior distribution, requiring optimisation rather than random sampling. We propose a new variational methodology called physically structured variational inference (PSVI), in which a physics-based structure is imposed on the variational family. In a simple example motivated by prior information from past FWI solutions, we include parameter correlations between pairs of spatial locations within a dominant wavelength of each other, and set other correlations to zero. This makes the method far more efficient in terms of both memory requirements and computational cost. We demonstrate the proposed method with a 2D acoustic FWI scenario, and compare the results with those obtained using three other variational methods. This verifies that the method can produce accurate statistical information of the posterior distribution with significantly improved efficiency.

How to cite: Zhao, X. and Curtis, A.: Physically Structured Variational Inference for Bayesian Full Waveform Inversion, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8215, 2024.

In the era of big data science, geoscience has experienced a significant paradigm shift, moving towards a data-driven approach to scientific discovery. This shift, however, presents a considerable challenge due to the plethora of geoscience data scattered across various sources. These challenges encompass data collection and collation and the intricate database construction process. Addressing this issue, we introduce a comprehensive, publicly accessible platform designed to facilitate extracting multimodal data from geoscience literature, encompassing text, visual, and tabular formats. Furthermore, our platform streamlines the search for targeted data and enables effective knowledge fusion. A distinctive feature of it is its capability to enhance the generalizability of Deep-Time Digital Earth data processing. It achieves this by customizing standardized target data and keyword mapping vocabularies for each specific domain. This innovative approach successfully overcomes the constraints typically imposed by a need for domain-specific knowledge in data processing. The platform has been effectively applied in processing diverse data sets, including mountain disaster data, global orogenic belt isotope data, and environmental pollutant data. This has facilitated substantial academic research, evidenced by developing knowledge graphs based on mountain disaster data, establishing a global Sm-Nd isotope database, and meticulous detection and analysis of environmental pollutants. The utility of our platform is further enhanced by its sophisticated network of models, which offer a cohesive multimodal understanding of text, images, and tabular data. This functionality empowers researchers to curate and regularly update their databases meticulously with enhanced efficiency. To demonstrate the platform's practical application, we highlight a case study involving compiling Sm-Nd isotope data to create a specialized database and subsequent geographic analysis. The compilation process in this scenario is comprehensive, encompassing tasks such as PDF pre-processing, recognition of target elements, human-in-the-loop annotation, and integrating multimodal knowledge. The results obtained consistently mirror patterns found in manually compiled data, thereby reinforcing the reliability and accuracy of our automated data processing tool. As a core component of the Deep-Time Digital Earth (DDE) program, our platform has significantly contributed to the field, supporting forty geoscience research teams in their endeavors and processing over 40,000 documents. This accomplishment underscores the platform's capacity for handling large-scale data and its pivotal role in advancing geoscience research in the age of big data.

How to cite: Guo, Z., Zhou, J., Zheng, G., Wang, X., and Zhou, C.: Accelerating Geoscience Research: An Advanced Platform for Efficient Multimodal Data Integration from Geoscience Literature, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13715, 2024.

The study focuses on evaluating and comparing different flood risk factors that correlate with each other and affect the probability of flooding. Previous research is limited to identifying these factors’ influence on specific flood events. In contrast, buildings are constructed based on design flood maps, such as the 100/500-year return period flood map in the United States. Therefore, it is important to compare risk factors obtained from historical events and flood maps to identify any missing flood risk factors. To this end, a study was conducted to determine the difference between the probability of flooding and associated factors from a historic 2016 flood event in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, with the 100-year return period Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)  flood map using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network approach was used for this study due to its transparent forward and backward inference capabilities. The potential flood risk factors (population, household income, land cover, race, rainfall, river, and road proximity, and topography) were identified and corresponding data was preprocessed in ArcGIS to convert them as raster files of the same extent, and coordinate system. The factors were also classified based on different approaches (i.e., equalization, percentile, k-means clustering, etc.) to identify the most suitable classification method. A likelihood maximization-based parameter learning approach was used to obtain the conditional probability tables in the Bayesian network. This approach was used to develop separate Bayesian networks for the 2016 flood and the 100-year flood map. After setting up the Bayesian networks, sensitivity analysis, influential strength, and correlation matrix were generated, which were used to identify the most important flood risk factors. E.g., it was observed that land cover,topography, and river proximity are highly influential to the probability of flooding.

How to cite: Hasan, F., Kameshwar, S., Mostafiz, R. B., and Friedland, C.: Bayesian network based evaluation and comparison of the urban flood risk factors for the 2016 flood and a 100-year return period flood event in Baton Rouge, Louisiana , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13884, 2024.

Inference problems within the geosciences vary significantly in size and scope, ranging from the detection of data trends through simple linear regressions, to the construction of complex 3D models representing the Earth’s interior structure. Successfully solving an inverse problem typically requires combining various types of data sets, each associated with its own forward solver. In the absence of established software, many researchers and practitioners resort to developing bespoke inversion and parameter estimation algorithms tailored to their specific needs. However, this practice does not promote reproducibility and necessitates a substantial amount of work that is frequently beyond the primary objectives of the research.

Our aim with CoFI (pronounced: coffee), the Common Framework for Inference, is to capture inherent commonalities present in all types of inverse problems, independent of the specific methods employed to solve them. CoFI is an open-source Python package that provides a link to reliable and sophisticated third-party packages, such as SciPy and PyTorch, to tackle inverse problems of a broad range. The modular and object-oriented design of CoFI, supplemented by our comprehensive suite of tutorials and practical examples, ensures its accessibility to users of all skill levels, from experts to novices. This not only has the potential to streamline research but also to support education and STEM training.

This poster presentation aims to give an overview of CoFI’s main features and usage through practical examples. Moreover, we hope to foster collaboration and invite contributions on inference algorithms and domain-relevant examples.

How to cite: He, J., Hauser, J., Sambridge, M., Magrini, F., Valentine, A., and Marignier, A.: CoFI - Linking geoscience inference problems with tools for their solution, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14483, 2024.

Tectonic processes influence numerous biogeochemical cycles. Accordingly, the evolution of the continental curst and changes in tectonic styles are inherently linked with secular chages in Earth’s surface environment. Here we present multiproxy mineralogical and geochronologic data to evaluate compositional changes in the upper crust along with variations in tectonic regimes and crustal recycling.  Our data indicate transitions from dominantly mafic to volumetrically extensive felsic upper crust occurred from the Archean into the Paleoproterozoic, which corresponds with evidence for enhanced crustal reworking. That later Paleoproterozoic through the Mesoproterozoic is characterized by a general reduction in crustal recycling and assimilatory tectonics with relatively limited active crustal thickening. Finally, the Neoproterozoic–Phanerozoic represents an interval with of increased juvenile magmatism and extensional tectonics, corresponding with deep and steep subduction and slab-rollback. This leads to enhanced island arc and back-arc basin formation, and subsequent arc collision.  These major shifts in composition and tectonic regimes that broadly bookended the Proterozoic have profound effects on numerous biogeochemical cycles particularly carbon, oxygen, and phosphorous cycles, and are thus likely linked to changes in the oxidative state and climate of Earth’s surface system observed during these times.

How to cite: McKenzie, N. R., Liu, H., Colleps, C., and Nordsvan, A.: Multiproxy investigation of secular changes in tectonic regimes and crustal recycling in Earth history, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14517, 2024.

Paleogeographic maps illustrate the distribution of land and sea, as well as the topography of the Earth’s surface during different geological periods based on the compilation of a wide range of geological and geophysical datasets. These maps provide boundary conditions for various models of the Earth’s systems, including climate, mantle convection, and land surface evolution. A number of software programs and computer algorithms have been developed in the past three decades to reconstruct either the past positions of continents and oceans or their elevation and depth. We recently developed the open-source and user friendly "Terra Antiqua", allowing users to create digital paleogeographic maps in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment (QGIS), using various tools that are easy to operate in combination with Gplates, a widely used software for plate tectonic reconstructions. The next step is to develop a comprehensive and integrated solution easily accessible on the web that can automate most of the steps involved in reconstructing past plate configurations and topography. We present here a web application ("Terra Antiqua online") that we are developing for the creation of digital paleogeographic maps. The web application has two parts: (1) The front-end uses CesiumJS, an open-source JavaScript library for making 3D globes and maps, to visualize the databases and let the users interact with it.  (2) The back-end uses Python algorithms and libraries such as GDAL and pyGPlates to process the data and perform tectonic and hypsometric reconstructions.  Terra Antiqua online uses pyGplates API to access existing tectonic models and apply them to rotate plate positions and datasets to their past position. New developments are allowing it to estimate the elevation, depth and distribution of the land and sea by automatically processing various geological proxy data (e.g. paleofacies maps, paleo-elevation proxies, fossils databases etc…) according to physically based algorithms. The project further aims to incorporate web-based landscape modeling tools and develop a community around a geological database and paleogeographic reconstruction methods and standards.

How to cite: Aminov, J., Dupont-Nivet, G., Tirandozova, N., Poblete, F., Rakhimjanov, I., Amonbekov, L., and Rikamov, R.: A web-based and data-driven approach to paleogeographic reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15087, 2024.

This research introduces a novel approach to seismic exploration on the Moon and Mars, employing autonomous robotic swarms equipped with seismic sensing and processing hardware. By relying on probabilistic inference methods, we aim to survey large surface areas to both autonomously identify and map subsurface features such as lava tubes and ice deposits. These are crucial for future human habitats and potential in-situ resource utilization.

This endeavor presents unique challenges due to the communication limitations and uncertainties inherent in remote, autonomous operations. To address these challenges, we adopt a distributed approach with robotic swarms, where each rover processes seismic data and shares the results with other rovers in its vicinity, contending with imperfect communication links. Thus, the swarm is used as a distributed computing network. The decisions made within the network are based on probabilistic modeling of the underlying seismic inference problem. A key innovation in this respect is the use of factor graphs to integrate uncertainties and manage inter-rover communications. This framework enables each rover to generate a localized subsurface map and autonomously decide on strategic changes in the seismic network topology, either exploring new areas or repositioning to enhance measurement accuracy of targeted underground regions.

The vision is to implement this approach on a distributed factor graph, allowing for a coordinated, probabilistic analysis of seismic data across the swarm. This strategy represents a significant departure from traditional static seismic sensor arrays, offering a dynamic and adaptable solution for planetary exploration. The first step towards realizing this vision involves implementing a Kalman filter for the one-dimensional linear heterogeneous wave equation. This has been achieved by reformulating finite difference schemes for wave propagation simulation into a state-space description. The resulting linear continuous n-th order system can be explicitly solved and rewritten into a discrete state space model that can be used in the standard Kalman filter recursion. However, the standard Kalman filter is limited due to its assumption that both model and process noise are Gaussian. With factor graphs, this limitation can be overcome, enabling a more robust and versatile analysis. Several simulation results will be shown to demonstrate the performance of these approaches.

We intend to extend the approach to higher-dimensional problems, implementing distributed versions of the Kalman filter and factor graph with simulated, non-perfect communication links. Eventually, the seismic inverse problems will be solved in these frameworks. Successfully achieving these objectives could greatly enhance our capabilities in extraterrestrial exploration, paving the way for more informed and efficient future space missions.

How to cite: Nierula, K., Shutin, D., Shin, B.-S., Igel, H., Keil, S., Bernauer, F., Reiss, P., Sesko, R., and Lindner, F.: Probabilistic Approach toward Seismic Exploration with Autonomous Robotic Swarms, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15385, 2024.

How to cite: Bobe, C., von Harten, J., Chudalla, N., and Wellmann, F.: GeoBUS - A Probabilistic Workflow Combining ERT Inverse Modeling and Implicit Geological Modeling , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15712, 2024.

Over the past twenty years, Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inference has become a popular approach for Bayesian sampling. It has been applied widely in the geosciences when the best class of model representation, e.g. of the subsurface, is not obvious in advance, or the number of free variables undecided. Making arbitrary choices in these areas may result in sub-optimal inferences from data. In trans-D, one typically defines a finite number of model states, with differing numbers of unknowns, over which Bayesian Inference is to be performed using the data.

A key attraction of Trans-D Bayesian Inference is that it is designed to let the data decide which state, as well as which configurations of parameters within each state, are preferred by the data, in a probabilistic manner. Trans-D algorithms may hence be viewed as a combination of fixed dimensional within-state sampling and simultaneous between-state sampling where Markov chains visit each state in proportion to their support from the data.

In theory, each state may be completely independent, involving different classes of model parameterization, with different numbers of unknowns, data noise levels, and even different assumptions about the data-model relationship. Practical considerations, such as convergence of the finite length Markov chains between states, usually mean that each state must be closely related to each other, e.g. differing by a single layer in a 1-D seismic Earth model. In addition, since the form of the necessary Metropolis-Hastings balance condition depends on the mathematical relationship between the unknowns in each state, then implementations are often bespoke to each class of model parameterization and data type. To our knowledge there exists no automatic trans-D sampler where one can define arbitrary independent states, together with a prior and Likelihood, and simply pass to a generalised sampling algorithm, as is common with many fixed dimensional MCMC algorithms and software packages. 

A second limitation in trans-D sampling is that since implementations are bespoke within a class of model parameterizations, within-state sampling is typically performed with simplistic and often dated algorithms, e.g. Metropolis-Hastings or Gibbs samplers, thereby limiting convergence rates. Over the past 30 years fixed dimensional sampling has advanced considerably with numerous efficient algorithms available and many conveniently translated into user friendly software packages, almost all of which have not been used within a trans-D framework due to a lack of a way to conveniently deploy them in a trans-D setting.

In this presentation we will address all of these issues by describing the theory under-pinning an ‘Independent State’ (IS) Trans-D sampler, together with some illustrative examples. In this algorithm class, sampling may be performed across states that are completely independent, containing arbitrary numbers of unknowns and parameter classes. In addition, the IS-sampler can conveniently take advantage of any fixed dimensional sampler without the need to derive and re-code bespoke Markov chain balance conditions, or specify mechanisms for transitions between model parameters within different states. In this sense it represents a general purpose automatic trans-D sampler.

How to cite: Sambridge, M., Valentine, A., and Hauser, J.: An Independent State sampler for Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inference, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16036, 2024.

How to cite: Yu, P., Deng, C., Ji, H., and Wen, Y.: Utilizing Large Language Models for Geoscience Literature Information Extraction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16101, 2024.

The probabilistic formulation of geoelectric and induced polarization inverse problems using Bayes’ theorem inherently accounts for data errors and uncertainties in the prior assumptions, both of which are propagated naturally into the solution. Due to the non-linearity of the physics underlying the geoelectric forward calculation, the inverse problem must be solved numerically. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide the capability to create a sample of the corresponding posterior distribution, based on which statistical estimators of interest can be approximated. In a typical geoelectric imaging application, the subsurface is discretized as a 2-D mesh with the model parameters representing the averaged values of the imaged electrical conductivity within the individual cells. The resulting model space is often of high dimensionality and usually insufficiently resolved by the measurements, posing a challenge to the efficient application of MCMC methods. In our work, we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to sample from the posterior distribution and operate on a reduced model space to enhance the efficiency of the inversion. The basis of the reduced model space is constructed via a principal component analysis of the model prior term. We consider different resolution measures to ensure that the information lost by operating in the reduced model space is negligible. In addition to the inversion of electrical resistivity tomography measurements in real variables, we also demonstrate the model space reduction and subsequent application of HMC for the solution of the complex resistivity tomography inverse problem in complex variables, imaging the distribution of the complex electrical conductivity in the subsurface. This study contributes to the needed increase of uncertainty quantification in the inversion of geoelectric and induced polarization measurements, aiming to provide a reliable basis for the processing and interpretation of geophysical imaging results.

How to cite: Hase, J., Wagner, F. M., Weigand, M., and Kemna, A.: Probabilistic inversion of geoelectric and induced polarization measurements on reduced model spaces using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16434, 2024.

It is common knowledge that climate variability and change have a profound impact on crop production. From the principle that “it is green and it grows” to the assessment of the actual impacts of major weather drivers and their extremes on crop growth through the adoption of agro-management strategies informed by tailored and effective climate services, there is a well documented scientific and operational gap. This work focuses on the development, implementation and testing of an AI-based methodology that aims to reproduce a crop growth model informing on grain maize yield in the European domain. A surrogate AI model based on Bayesian deep learning and inference is compared for its efficiency against the process-based deterministic ECroPS model developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The rationale behind this effort is that such mechanistic crop models rely on multiple input meteorological variables and are relatively costly in terms of computing resources and time, crucial aspects for a scalable and widely adopted solution. Such approaches make it possible to run very large ensembles of simulations based, for instance, on ensembles of climate predictions and projections and/or a perturbed parametrization (e.g. on the atmospheric CO2 concentration effects). Our surrogate crop model relies on three weather input variables: daily minimum and maximum temperatures and daily precipitation, where the training was performed with the ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis. 

How to cite: Vlachopoulos, O., Luther, N., Ceglar, A., Toreti, A., and Xoplaki, E.: Impact modeling with Bayesian inference for crop yield assessment and prediction, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17157, 2024.

Fracture imaging is a pivotal technique in a variety of fields including Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), geothermal exploration, and wasterwater disposal, essential for the success of the field operation and seismic hazard mitigation. However, accurate fracture imaging is challenging due to accurate fracture imaging is challenging due to the complex nature of subsurface geology, the presence of multiple overlapping signals, and the variability of fracture sizes and orientations. Additionally, limitations in the resolution of current imaging technologies and the need for high-quality data acquisition further complicate the process.

To address these challenges, we have conducted fracture imaging experiments utilizing acoustic sensors in laboratory-scale specimens with varied fracture geometries.A dynamic acquisition system involving robotic arms have been developed, enabling the flexible positioning of sensors on any part of the specimen's surface.This not only significantly reduces the time and resources required for experiments but also increases the adaptability of the process to different surface topography of specimens and fracture geometries.

In addition, we employ Bayesian optimization algorithms to enhance the efficiency of sensor placement in laboratory-scale specimens, aiming to achieve precise fracture imaging with the least number of measurements necessary. This algorithmic approach optimizes the data collection process, ensuring that we gather the most relevant and accurate information with minimal intrusion. The collected data is then rigorously compared and calibrated against findings from numerical simulations, which helps in refining the algorithm for broader applications.

How to cite: Yuan, Z., Gu, C., Zhong, Y., Wu, P., Chen, Z., and Kang, B.: Bayesian optimal experimental design for fracture imaging, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17939, 2024.

Earth’s climate shows a remarkable variability on geological timescales, ranging from widespread glaciation to ice-free greenhouse conditions over the course of the Phanerozoic, i.e. the last 540 million years. Earth system modelling allows us to better understand and constrain the drivers of these changes and provides valuable reference data for other paleoclimate disciplines (e.g., chemistry, geology, hydrology). However, the sheer volume and complexity of these datasets often prevents direct access and use by non-modellers, limiting their benefits for large parts of our community.

We present the online platform “climatearchive.org” to break down these barriers and provide intuitive access to paleoclimate data for everyone. More than 100 global coupled climate model simulations covering the entire Phanerozoic at the stage level build the backbone of the web application. Key climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, vegetation and circulation) are displayed on a virtual globe in an intuitive three-dimensional environment and on a continuous time axis throughout the Phanerozoic. The software runs in any web browser — including smartphones — and promotes visual data exploration, streamlines model-data comparisons, and supports public outreach efforts. We discuss the current proof of concept and outline the future integration of new sources of model and geochemical proxy data to streamline and advance interdisciplinary paleoclimate research.

We also present ongoing efforts for an integrated model-data synthesis to quantify changes in meridional and zonal temperature gradients throughout the Phanerozoic and to address the relative roles of individual forcings (greenhouse gases, solar, geography). While substantial effort has been made to quantify the evolution of global mean temperatures over the last 540 million years, changes in the large-scale temperature gradients and their causes are comparably less constrained. As a fundamental property of the climate system, changes in the spatial patterns of surface temperature play a critical role in controlling large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulation and influence hydrological, ecological, and land surface processes. The resulting best estimate product of meridional and zonal temperature gradients over the last 540 million years will represent a step change in our understanding of the drivers and consequences of past temperature gradient changes and will provide the community with a valuable resource for future climatological, geological, and ecological research.

How to cite: Steinig, S., Johnson, H., Robinson, S., Valdes, P. J., and Lunt, D. J.: Towards a community platform for paleoclimate data and temperature gradients over the last 540 million years , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18486, 2024.

The ability to reconstruct the geologic evolution of the Earth as a system including the geosphere, atmosphere and biosphere interactions, is essential to understand the fate of our environment in the context of the Climate, Life and Energy crises of the new Anthropocene era. Scientists of tomorrow working on environmental changes require ever more detailed databases and maps to access and correlate the overwhelming mass of information stemming from the ongoing surge of environmental data and models. Earth System reconstructions are fundamental assets to assess potential sources and locations of key geo-resources that are now vital for the energy transition (e.g. raw materials, rare earth elements, subsurface storage, geothermal sites). Earth System reconstructions are also the best means to communicate past and future Life and Environmental evolutions, while providing consciousness of our role and situation in the immensity of Time and Nature. They convey these essential lessons in a didactic fashion for teachers and students, museums, or for governments and NGOs to make decisions and promote public awareness. Although Earth System reconstructions have long been recognized as essential, they have yet to deliver their full breakthrough potential combining various booming disciplines. As part of a large project over Asia, we review here the case of the intensely studied, yet still extremely controversial India-Asia collision with major implications on regional environmental, depositional and global climate transitions. Ongoing debates argue for radically different end-member models of the collision timing and its configuration, and of associated topographic growth in the collision zone. We present here new Asian paleogeographic reconstructions at 50 and 30 Ma that complement an existing set at 60, 40 and 20 Ma with updates. These integrate various end-members models of the India-Asia collision and associated topographic patterns and land-sea masks with implications on the locus, source and generation of resources. Results are provided online (https://map.paleoenvironment.eu/) in various model-relevant formats with associated database and discussion forums to comment an contribute to the amelioration of these maps and databases. We also present the latest developments of the user-friendly and open-source Terra Antiqua Q-GIS plugin (https://paleoenvironment.eu/terra-antiqua/) that has been used and specifically developed with new tools including data-driven and web-based applications

How to cite: Dupont-Nivet, G., Aminov, J., Poblete, F., Ruiz, D., and Li, H.: Paleogeographic evolution of Asia in the Cenozoic reconstructed with the Terra Antiqua software, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19320, 2024.

Geological models can be constructed with a variety of mathematical methods. Generally, we can describe the modeling process in a formal way as a functional relationship between input parameters (geological observations, orientations, interpolation parameters) and an output in space (lithology, stratigraphy, rock property, etc.). However, in order to obtain a suitable implementation in geophysical inverse frameworks, we have to consider specific requirements. In recent years, a substantial amount of work focused on low-dimensional parameterizations and efficient automation of geological modeling methods, as well as their combination with suitable geophysical forward simulations. In this contribution, we focus on differential geomodelling approaches, which allow for an integration of geological modeling methods into gradient-based inverse approaches.

In this work, we emphasize differential geomodelling approaches. These approaches seamlessly integrate geological modeling methods into gradient-based inverse approaches. To achieve this integration, we actively employ modern machine learning frameworks, specifically TensorFlow and PyTorch. We then incorporate these geometric geological modeling methods into a Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm. SVGD is adept at addressing the challenges of multimodality in probabilistic inversion. Moreover, we demonstrate the implementation of these methods in a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach.

Our results are promising, showing that treating geological modeling as a differentiable approach unlocks new possibilities. This method facilitates novel applications in the integration of geological modeling with geophysical inversion, paving the way for advanced research in this field.

How to cite: Wellmann, F., de la Varga, M., and Liang, Z.: Differentiable Geomodeling: towards a tighter implementation of structural geological models into geophysical inverse frameworks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20508, 2024.

This study explores the geological complexity of the South Nicholson Region, an area spanning the Northern Territory and Queensland in Australia, from the newly drilled NDI Carrara 1 well, thus exposing the burial history of the Carrara sub-basin. Formed before the formation of the Nuna supercontinent, this region is positioned near resource-abundant basins and boasts a complex geological history. It has undergone significant tectonic shifts, orogenic activities, and the development of sedimentary basins over 1.6 billion of years while the world was developing as we see it in present. Despite its potential for mineral and petroleum resources, the South Nicholson Region was previously under-explored, lacking in-depth seismic, well, and geophysical data. Recently acquired data from the region includes five seismic lines and a new well, offering invaluable insights into the region's subsurface geology, including the identification of a new sub-basin, the Carrara Sub-basin. Characterised by a gravity low on its southeast side, the Carrara Sub-basin encompasses thick sequences of Proterozoic rocks from the Northern Lawn Hill Platform, Mount Isa Province and McArthur Basin. The primary objective of this study is to examine the burial history, tectonic subsidence and paleo-reconstruction of the South Nicholson region.

Our results indicate that the South Nicholson Region has undergone multiple cycles of sedimentation, tectonic uplift and erosion. Between ~1640 Ma and 1580 Ma, the region experienced increasing deposition rates. The presence of an unconformity obscures the sedimentation and tectonic history from 1600 to 500 Ma. However, by 500 Ma, significant subsidence had occurred, indicating that subsidence was the predominant geological force during this period. After this interval, an uplift event is evident, exhuming the layers until 400 Ma. From 400 Ma until today, little to no subsidence has been briefly interrupted by minor uplift events. Our calculated tectonic subsidence curve closely aligns with the regional deposition patterns, highlighting the intricate relationship between sediment deposition and tectonic activities, thereby providing valuable insights into the interplay between sedimentary and tectonic processes in the region.

How to cite: Nalinakumar, H. and Clark, S. R.: Basin evolution and Paleo reconstruction of the Mesoproterozoic South Nicholson Region, NE Australia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21753, 2024.

Precipitation and near-surface temperature from an ensemble of 36 new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated over Chile´s climate. The analysis is focused on four distinct climatic subregions: Northern Chile, Central Chile, Northern Patagonia, and Southern Patagonia. Over each of the subregions, first, we evaluate the performance of individual global climate models (GCMs) against a suit of precipitation and temperature observation-based gridded datasets over the historical period (1986-2014) and then we analyze the models’ projections for the end of the century (2080-2099) for four different shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP). Although the models are characterized by general wet and warm mean bias, they reproduce realistically the main spatiotemporal climatic variability over different subregions. However, none of the models is best across all subregions for both precipitation and temperature. Moreover, among the best performing models defined based on the Taylor skill score, one finds the so-called “hot models” likely exhibiting an overestimated climate sensitivity, which suggests caution in using these models for accessing future climate change in Chile. We found robust (90% of models agree in the direction of change) projected end-of-the-century reductions in mean annual precipitation for Central Chile (~-20% to ~-40%) and Northern Patagonia (~-10% to ~-30%) under scenario SSP585, but changes are strong from scenario SSP245 onwards, where precipitation is reduced by 10-20%. Northern Chile and Southern Patagonia show non-robust changes in precipitation across the models. Yet, future near-surface temperature warming presented high inter-model agreement across subregions, where the greatest increments occurred along the Andes Mountains. Northern Chile displays the strongest increment of up to ~6°C in SSP585, followed by Central Chile (up to ~5°C). Both Northern and Southern Patagonia show a corresponding increment by up to ~4°C. We also briefly discuss about the environmental and socio-economic implications of these future changes for Chile.

How to cite: Salazar, Á., Thatcher, M., Goubanova, K., Bernal, P., Guitérrez, J., and Squeo, F.: CMIP6 precipitation and temperature projections for Chile, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-111, 2024.

The origin of multi-decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic is under debate. The variability could be caused by oceanic internal variability or by external anthropogenic or natural forcing. We have produced a set of single-forcing historical simulations with the Max Planck Institute - Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) in low resolution (LR). The historical-like simulations consists of 30 ensemble members and the external forcing is from the Coupled Model Intercomparison phase 6 (CMIP6). Each set of simulation is forced by either only greenhouse-gases, total ozone, solar insolation, anthropogenic aerosols or volcanic aerosols. We present first results of our attribution of the climate signals in the North Atlantic region to the different single forcings.

How to cite: Pohlmann, H. and Müller, W. A.: The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1411, 2024.

Given the significant socioeconomic impact of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), a critical area of investigation involves comprehending how the EASM and, consequently, the hydrological cycle over East Asia might change in future climates. To address this inquiry, reliable climate models must be employed. While assessments of model performance commonly concentrate on the generated precipitation amounts during the EASM period, it is important to note that the representation of dynamical components such as the Mei-yu front (MYF) are not frequently investigated. As model outputs may be correct for incorrect reasons, the dynamical components of the EASM might be misrepresented.
In this investigation, we scrutinized the representation of the MYF in historical simulations of 38 CMIP6 models from May to August, comparing them to ERA5. Our findings reveal that numerous CMIP6 models encounter difficulties in reproducing the climatology of the MYF similar to observations. By sub-sampling models based on the meridional position bias of the MYF in May, we identified distinct monthly variations within these groupings. Additionally, the origins of these biases were examined. Our study stresses the link between the misrepresentation of MYF climatology in CMIP6 models and the depiction of the North Pacific High, particularly its western edge. The implications of these discoveries are also explored. 

How to cite: Leckebusch, G. C., Ng, K. S., and Hodges, K. I.: Climatological Evaluation of the Mei-yu Front Representation in CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1657, 2024.

Because recent mitigation efforts have made the upper-end scenario of the future GHG concentration (SSP5-8.5) highly unlikely, SSP3-7.0 has received attention as an alternative high-end scenario for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) studies. However, the ‘distinctiveness’ of SSP3-7.0 may not be well-recognized by the IAV community. When the integrated assessment model (IAM) community developed the SSP-RCPs, they did not anticipate the limelight on SSP3-7.0 for IAV studies because SSP3-7.0 was the ‘distinctive’ scenario regarding to aerosol emissions (and land-use land cover changes). Aerosol emissions increase or change little in SSP3-7.0 due to the assumption of a lenient air quality policy, while they decrease in the other SSP-RCPs of CMIP6 and all the RCPs of CMIP5. This distinctive high-aerosol-emission design of SSP3-7.0 was intended to enable climate model (CM) researchers to investigate influences of extreme aerosol emissions on climate. Here we show that large aerosol emissions in SSP3-7.0 significantly suppress future increases in precipitation. We recommend IAV researchers to compare impact simulations at the same warming level between SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 to examine the effects of aerosols in the case that such analyses are adequate. We also recommend ScenarioMIP for CMIP7 to exclude scenarios with extreme policies of aerosols (and land-use land-cover changes) from Tier 1 experiments and instead include them in Tier 2.

Reference: Shiogama, H., et al. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 1276–1278 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01883-2

How to cite: Shiogama, H., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Hayashi, M., Hirabayashi, Y., Ogura, T., Iizumi, T., Takahashi, K., and Takemura, T.: Recognizing distinctiveness of SSP3-7.0 for use in impact assessments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1711, 2024.

The IPCC’s 2021 assessment suggested that substantial emissions reduction and limiting global temperature rise to well below 2.0°C could prevent the complete loss of Arctic sea ice in this century. However, these assessments come with large uncertainties. Recent research projects a summer ice-free Arctic by the 2050s even under a low emission scenario by constraining future sea ice area with satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) since 1979. Notably, the climate models in these assessments commonly underestimate the accelerated Arctic warming and the pace of sea ice melting, particularly over the last two decades. Moreover, recent studies indicate that in a warming climate, the thinning of sea ice and snow over sea ice may intensify surface warming, thereby accelerating the melting.

In this study, we leverage the increasing availability of observations and recent reanalysis data for Arctic-wide sea ice to investigate the link between changes in sea ice thickness (SIT), sea ice concentration (SIC), and Arctic warming. We employ these datasets to evaluate biases in historical periods and uncertainties in future scenarios within the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble for SIT and SIC. We further investigate the relationship between the thinning of sea ice and the snow layer on sea ice and surface temperature changes on a basin or regional scale. The findings are then used to constrain projected Arctic changes. Our study aims to gain some insights into the impact of model biases in the Arctic on projected climate projections, crucial for decision-making in a changing climate.

How to cite: Tian, T. and Yang, S.: The impact of sea ice thickness biases on the projected summer sea ice-free Arctic in CMIP6 ensemble experiments , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1855, 2024.

The southeastern U.S. is frequently impacted by severe thunderstorms, which are known for producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that this region experiences the highest frequency of thunderstorms in the country. In recent decades, these storms have shown a trend of increasing both in frequency and intensity. Moreover, the southeastern states are susceptible to hurricanes and tropical storms, which have been intensifying due to warmer ocean temperatures. The escalating severity of these weather events poses significant risks to public safety, infrastructure, and the economy in the southeast. Our proposed study uses advanced satellite technology, specifically Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), to map storm-induced flooding and damage from October 2019 to August 2021. This period includes Hurricane Sally, which caused significant destruction in Alabama on September 16, 2020. By analyzing satellite images taken before and after hurricanes, we aim to identify affected areas and assess infrastructural damage. The study employs Sentinel-1 InSAR data processed by the COMET-LiCSAR system and the LiCSBAS processing package, generating surface deformation time series. We also integrate optical images to examine soil moisture and climate changes, correlating them with displacement and radar coherence data from SAR images. This research will classify and discuss the impact of hurricanes on infrastructure and roadways, providing critical information to prioritize emergency response and inform repair and reconstruction planning.

How to cite: Khosravi, A., Ghorbani, Z., and Maghsoudi, Y.: Monitoring Severe Storm Impacts and Climate Trends in the Southeastern US using Satellite-Based Proxy Indicators: A Case Study of Hurricane Sally, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2173, 2024.

Day-to-day (DTD) temperature variability is an important characteristic of air temperature, which significantly affects human health and ecosystems. However, the changing trend of DTD under recent climate warming and its causes need to be further explored. Here, Using daily temperature observations, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of DTD and its long-term trends in the United States (US) over the last 26 years and find a significant increase in winter DTD in the central and eastern United States during the study period. In addition, by using the observed data and The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations, we further demonstrate that cleaner air leads to significant changes in DTD. Specifically, by comparing the contributions of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, natural forcing, and total forcing, it is concluded that the reduction of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations in the United States after 1997 led to enhanced DTD . Of the 32 members used in this study, nearly 60% show positive trends in the DTD index during 1997–2022 in the historical simulations. The trends for the ensemble members range from -0.06 to 0.08 °C ·decade^-1  with an ensemble mean of 0.008°C· decade^-1 which encompasses the trend derived from the observations (0.08 °C·decade^-1 ) . The historical simulations reasonably capture the observed DTD trends except with a weaker magnitude. The increasing trend is also evident in the anthropogenic-aerosol-only historical simulations, where about 56% of the 32members show positive trends, with an ensemble mean of 0.01 °C·decade^-1. While contrary to the results of the anthropogenic-aerosol-only historical simulations (hist-aer), there was negative trends In the natural-only historical (hist-nat) and the greenhouse-gas-only historical (hist-GHG) simulations, only about 44% and 47% of the members showed the positive trends, The trend for the ensemble mean is -0.013/-0.015°C·decade-1 for the hist-nat / hist-GHG simulations. Therefore, the positive trend of the DTD index can be attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols , while the negative trend of which can be attributed to the natural forcing and greenhouse gas forcing. The observed DTD enhancement over 1997-2022 is dominated by the effect of anthropogenic aerosols, while natural forcing and GHGS partially counteract the effect of anthropogenic aerosols. That is, Based on climate modeling experiments, we demonstrate that the reduced aerosol emissions in US can contribute to the enhanced trend of DTD in USA.

How to cite: Yasen, G., Liu, Q., and Guo, W.: Changes in Day-to-day temperature variability in United States driven by cleaner air, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2368, 2024.

Despite the early warnings of the scientific community in general and of the IPCC in particular, we have entered decades in which climate models are no longer black boxes as the consequences of past emissions of greenhouse gases are emerging rapidly in multiple climate records. This unprecedented situation is likely to change our methods and our view of the respective roles of models and observations in understanding recent and predicting future climate change, regardless of the considered emission scenario. Among the key questions raised are the role of observations in model tuning versus projection constraining and the design of future model intercomparison projects. These questions will be illustrated by several recent studies aimed at constraining CMIP6 projections and, hopefully, with a fresh although critical look on the forthcoming CMIP7 project.

How to cite: Douville, H.: Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2903, 2024.

The reversibility of a wide range of components of the earth system was investigated by comparing forward and time-reversed 
historical and future simulations of a coupled earth system model known as the Beijing Normal University earth system 
model. Many characteristics of the climate system, including the surface temperature, ocean heat content (OHC), convective 
precipitation, total runof, ground evaporation, soil moisture, sea ice extent, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, 
did not fully return to their initial values when the historical or future natural and anthropogenic forcing agents were reversed. 
The surface temperature and OHC declines lagged behind the decline in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Reverses in other variables occurred in direct response to the decline in GHGs. The sea level increased, even after all of the forces returned to the 
original values. Furthermore, most of the climate variables did not return to their original values because of thermal inertial. 
The end states of variables, other than those related to thermal storage, mainly depended on the original state of the natural 
and anthropogenic forces, and were unafected by the future growth rate of the GHGs. The climate policy implication of this 
study is that climate change cannot be completely reversed even if all the external forces are returned to their initial values

How to cite: Yang, S.: Reversibility of historical and future climate change with a complex earth system model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2964, 2024.

Untangling the impact of anthropogenic forcing on drought is particularly essential for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have indicated that anthropogenic forcing exacerbates drought, raising concerns about global drought evolution, yet little is known about the impact of anthropogenic forcing on drought evolution through anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol (AER). We integrated standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) data under different experiments to study drought development with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs). Subsequently, we conducted sensitivity analyses to quantify the changes in drought sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (DSG) and aerosol (DSA) from 1900 to 2014. Our findings reveal different effects of AER and GHGs on drought trends during three periods. Specifically, GHGs slightly increased global drought severity in the early 20th century. Conversely, from 1956 to 1982, the drought-mitigating effects of AER surpassed the drought-enhancing effects of GHGs, and the global was humidified. Then, from 1982 to 2014, the trends of increasing DSG and decreasing DSA suggest that an important global shift is taking place. GHG re-emerged as the primary driver, thus leading to increased drought severity. Taken together, these findings elucidate how anthropogenic forcing impacts global drought severity through drought-enhancing effects of GHGs and drought-mitigating effects of AER, which provides new insights into understanding the risk of anthropogenic impacts on global drought.

How to cite: Li, H.: Anthropogenic forcing inconsistently exacerbates global drought, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4371, 2024.

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing is quantitatively uncertain affecting the ability to constrain the climate response to anthropogenic perturbations. Climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) use different methods to incorporate direct and cloud-mediated aerosol effects. Some models in CMIP6 used prescribed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on cloud droplet number concentrations from the Simple Plumes parameterization fitted to the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology’s Aerosol Climatology version 2 (MACv2-SP). MACv2-SP was originally designed for the use in a subset of experiments for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project to better understand the model diversity in aerosol forcing (Fiedler et al., 2023). The final uptake of MACv2-SP for research was, however, much broader. In the context of CMIP, the implementation of MACv2-SP in several climate models led to the request for new MACv2-SP input data that are consistent with updated emissions, e.g., in the framework of CovidMIP (Fiedler et al., 2021) and now in preparation for CMIP7 via the CMIP Climate Forcings Task Team. Moreover, MACv2-SP also serves in creating seasonal and decadal predictions, and satellite products.

We will therefore derive and freely provide new data for the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and their cloud-mediated effects based on newly available emissions. The next data version of MACv2-SP is currently in preparation for interests in using CMIP6plus compliant boundary data. It will use the historical emission data for aerosols and their precursors from the new release of the Community Emission Data System (CEDS), which will be published at the beginning of 2024. The new emissions will allow us to revise and extent the historical data for MACv2-SP to include years after 2014. Expected changes compared to the MACv2-SP data used in CMIP6 are improved aerosol optical depth over some land regions in recent years, where the observations developed differently compared to assumptions in the scenarios. We will further translate uncertainty in the emission data to expected differences in the aerosol forcing. In addition to the new data for CMIP6plus, a new development of the simple plumes approach will be made for an assessment of the radiative forcing and climate response to aerosols from severe wild fires in recent years that are not represented by CMIP6 models.

Fiedler, S., Wyser, K., Rogelj, J. and van Noije, T. (2021) Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery.  Atmospheric Research, 264 . Art.Nr. 105866. DOI 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105866.

Fiedler, S., van Noije, T., Smith, C. J., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Pinto, R., Reerink, T., Sima, A. and Schulz, M. (2023) Historical Changes and Reasons for Model Differences in Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (15). Art.Nr. e2023GL104848. DOI 10.1029/2023GL104848.

How to cite: Fiedler, S., Bischof, S., Sudarchikova, N., Hoesly, R. M., and Smith, S. J.: Anthropogenic aerosol forcing in CMIP from prescribed optical and cloud microphysical properties, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5200, 2024.

Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible future changes, so scientists often use many climate models in order to fully explore the range of potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Many of the latest-generation global climate models have high values of effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), which are unlikely according to independent estimates of EffCS. It has been argued that these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. However, whether this would really improve regional impact assessments, or actually make them worse, is unclear. Here we show that there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in important climatic impact drivers. Analysing three different impacts - heavy rainfall, meteorological drought, and fire weather in important world regions, we find a significant correlation with EffCS only in some regions and for some metrics. Moreover, even in those cases, internal variability has a larger effect on projected changes than has EffCS. This means that impact studies should not select climate models based solely on their EffCS, which does not help constrain projections and may potentially neglect realistic impacts in models deemed “unrealistic” on the basis of their sensitivity. We recommend that model selection or filtering must be based on a more specific evaluation of models vis-à-vis the impact of interest.

How to cite: Swaminathan, R., Schewe, J., Walton, J., Zimmermann, K., Betts, R., Burton, C., Jones, C., Jones, C., Mengel, M., Reyer, C., Turner, A., and Weigel, K.: Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5527, 2024.

Tipping points are thresholds beyond which large, abrupt and possibly irreversible changes in the climate system or in large scale ecosystems would occur. The crossing of such tipping points under anthropogenic forcing poses a threat to biodiversity, food security, and human societies. However, due to the complexity of the processes involved, it remains notoriously difficult to determine exact thresholds that need to be avoided to stay within a “safe operating space” for humanity. Here, we map, for a variety of mitigation metrics, the crossing of thresholds, which we define to represent a wide range of deviations from the unperturbed state. We assess the crossing of these thresholds in a wide range of plausible future emission pathways: two climate mitigation scenarios (one with a strong overshoot) and one no-mitigation high-emissions scenario. These scenarios are simulated by the latest generation of Earth system models and by two Earth system models of intermediate complexity, for which we created large perturbed-parameter ensembles. Using this comprehensive model database we provide estimates of when and at which warming level 4 mitigation targets (thresholds) for 14 different impact metrics are exceeded along with an assessment of uncertainties. We find that under the high-emissions scenario, even the highest thresholds for many of the impact metrics are exceeded with high confidence, such as the expansion of ocean areas that are undersaturated with respect to aragonite, decreases in plankton biomass, Arctic summer sea ice extent, strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and subsurface oxygen concentration. The risk of exceeding a given mitigation target decreases under low-emissions and overshoot scenarios. Yet, exceedance of ambitious targets for aragonite undersaturation, Arctic summer sea ice extent, and steric sea level rise (SSLR) are projected to be difficult to avoid (high confidence) even under the low-emissions scenario. The overshoot scenario reduces the risk of exceeding mitigation targets related to Arctic summer sea ice extent, SSLR, AMOC and plankton biomass compared to the high-emissions scenario, particularly in the long-term. Uncertainties in Earth system model projections of net primary production prevent us from concluding on the risk of mitigation target exceedance for this impact metric.

How to cite: Bourgeois, T., Torres, O., Fröb, F., Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Tran, G. T., Schwinger, J., Frölicher, T. L., Joos, F., Keller, D., Oschlies, A., and Bopp, L.: Pathways for avoiding ocean biogeochemical damage: Mitigation targets, mitigation options, and projections, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5895, 2024.

Over four decades, CMIP has driven massive improvements in the modelled representation of the Earth system, whilst also seeing huge growth in its scope and complexity. In its most recent phase, CMIP6, a broad spectrum of questions continues to be answered across twenty-four individual model intercomparison projects (MIPs). This science improves process understanding and assesses the climate’s response to forcing, systematic biases, variability, and predictability in line with WCRP Scientific Objectives. CMIP and its associated data infrastructure have become essential to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other international and national climate assessments, increasingly including the downstream mitigation, impacts, and adaptation communities.

However, despite the invaluable science produced from CMIP6 data, many challenges were still faced by the model data providers, the data delivery infrastructure, and users, which need to be addressed moving forwards. A specific challenge in CMIP6 was the burden placed on the modelling centres, in part due to the large number of requested experiments and delays in the preparation of the CMIP6 forcing datasets and climate data request.

The CMIP structure is evolving into a continuous, community-based climate modelling programme to tackle key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations. This activity will be supported by the design of experimental protocols, an infrastructure that supports data publication and access, and quasi-operational extension of historical forcings.  A subset of experiments is proposed to be fast-tracked to deliver climate information for national and international climate assessments and informing policy and decision making. The CMIP governing panels are coordinating community activities to reduce the burden placed on modelling centres, continue to enhance novel and innovative scientific activities, and maximise computational efficiencies, whilst continuing to deliver impactful climate model data.

How to cite: Hewitt, H. and Dunne, J. and the CMIP Panel and IPO: Evolving The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) To Better Support The Climate Community And Future Climate Assessments, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6364, 2024.

Global climate change projections, such as those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), are still subject to substantial modelling uncertainties. A variety of Emergent Constraints (ECs) have been suggested to address these uncertainties, but remain heavily debated in the scientific community. Still, the central idea behind ECs to relate future projections to already observable quantities has no real substitute.

Here we discuss machine learning (ML) approaches for new types of controlling factor analyses (CFA) as a promising alternative. The principal idea is to use ML to find climate-invariant relationships in historical data, which also hold approximately under strong climate change scenarios. On the basis of existing big data archives such as those from the CMIPs, these climate-invariant relationships can be validated in perfect-climate-model frameworks.

From a ML perspective, we argue that CFA are promising for three reasons: (a) they can be objectively validated both for present-day data and future data and (b) they provide more direct - by design physically-plausible - links between historical observations and potential future climates compared to ECs and (c) they can take higher dimensional relationships into account that better characterize the still complex nature of large-scale emerging relationships. We highlight these advantages for three examples in the form of constraints on climate feedback mechanisms (clouds [1], stratospheric water vapour [2]) and forcings (aerosol-cloud interactions).

References:

1. Ceppi P. and Nowack P. Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (30), e2026290118 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026290118

2. Nowack P., Ceppi P., Davis S.M., Chiodo G., Ball W., Diallo M.A., Hassler B., Jia Y., Keeble J., and Joshi M. Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations, Nature Geoscience 16, 577-583 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01183-6

How to cite: Nowack, P. and Watson-Parris, D.: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful - a machine learning perspective, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6750, 2024.

The solar forcing dataset prepared for the 6^th round of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has been used extensively in climate model experiments. Recently, an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Working Group was established to revisit the solar forcing recommendations in order to define a roadmap for building a revised solar forcing dataset for the upcoming 7^th round of CMIP (Funke et al., 2023). This new dataset will introduce changes in the radiative forcing of climate either directly, or indirectly via changes in atmospheric composition. In CMIP6, the solar forcing consisted of both a total solar irradiance (TSI), along with a spectrally resolved solar irradiance (SSI). The TSI for solar minimum was set to 1360.8±0.5Wm^-2 and the SSI covered the 10nm to 100mm spectral region. A similar approach is proposed for CMIP7 except for two major aspects of the reconstruction: 1) the definition of the reference spectrum for the quite Sun; 2) the temporal variability. The major difference between the proposed CMIP7 SSI quite sun reference spectrum and that used for CMIP6 is the spectral shape. The new SSI spectrum has an irradiance that is 1-5% higher in the visible band and lower by 1-2% in the Near-IR wavelength range (1000-2000nm). The solar temporal variability in the CMIP6 and CMIP7 reconstructions are based on both the NRLSSI2 and SATIRE reconstructions. These reconstructions have been improved in preparation for CMIP7 and the aim is for both reconstructions to use the same reference spectrum and be driven by the same solar proxies. In this work we used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine the chemical and climate implications of the proposed CMIP7 solar forcing updates compared to the CMIP6 approach. WACCM is a chemistry-climate model that extends from the surface to 140km. The horizontal resolution is ~1degree. WACCM has a detailed representation of chemical and dynamical processes from the troposphere through the lower thermosphere. We examined the “chemical only” impacts of the solar forcing choice by running WACCM in the specified dynamics mode using NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2). The “climate” impacts were derived by running the model with interactive dynamics coupled to a deep ocean. Conclusions from this work will support the development of the next version of WACCM for participation in the CMIP7 assessment.

Funke, B., Dudok de Wit, T., Ermolli, I., Haberreiter, M., Kinnison, D., Marsh, D., Nesse, H., Seppälä, A., Sinnhuber, M., and Usoskin, I.: Towards the definition of a solar forcing dataset for CMIP7, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-100.

How to cite: Kinnison, D., Marsh, D., and Tilmes, S.: Evaluation of the chemistry and climate impact of the new solar forcing dataset for CMIP7 using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6774, 2024.

Modelled water-mass changes in the North Pacific thermocline from CMIP6, both in the subsurface and at the surface, reveal the impact of the competition between anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) over the past 6 decades. The aerosol effect overwhelms the GHG effect during 1950-1985 in driving salinity changes on density surfaces, while after 1985 the GHG effect dominates. These subsurface water-mass changes are traced back to changes at the surface, of which ~70% stems from the migration of density surface outcrops, equatorward due to regional cooling by anthropogenic aerosols and subsequent poleward due to warming by GHGs. Ocean subduction connects these surface outcrop changes to the main thermocline. Both observations and models reveal this transition in climate forcing around 1985 and highlight the important role of anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing on our oceans’ water masses.

How to cite: Shi, J.-R., Wijffels, S., Kwon, Y.-O., Talley, L., and Gille, S.: The Competition Between Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Forcing is Revealed by North Pacific Water-mass Changes, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7042, 2024.

Regional climate modelling has evolved significantly, offering versatile applications across various scales and resolutions. This study aims to provide a comprehensive framework for selecting top five Climate Models at each grid for climate variables in the Munneru River Basin, comes under Lower Krishna River Basin, India. Employing the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) datasets, which are derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) runs under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), is compared with the observed precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperature datasets obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). These datasets have a spatial resolution of (0.25° × 0.25°) and available from 1970 to 2014. The methodology adopted in this study uses advanced statistical techniques to evaluate the performance of the CMIP6 models. The study incorporates Multicriterion Decision-Making Techniques (MCDM) and Group Decision-Making (GDM) methodologies within the Reliable-Ensemble Averaging (REA) framework. MIROC-ES2L, GISS-E2-1-G and TaiESM1 are the top ranked models for precipitation data. Whereas, BCC-CSM2-MR, ACCESS-ESM1-5 and GFDL-CM4_gr2 obtained as most suitable RCMs for maximum temperature data. For minimum temperature data, MIROC-ES2L, KIOST-ESM and MIROC6 obtained as top ranked CMIP6 models. The projected climate variables, including precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperatures, under three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP 245, SSP 370 and SSP 585 extending up to the year 2100. The spatio-temporal analysis encompasses key climate parameters, identifying trends, variations, and potential anomalies in the Munneru River Basin. This study contributes to the broader context of regional climate modelling research and enhances our understanding of the Munneru River Basin's climate dynamics. The research findings presented in this study aim to understand the methodological advancements in regional climate modelling, performance assessments of CMIP6 models and the application of CMIP6 models in regional process studies.

How to cite: Keesara, V. R., Buri, E. S., and Kotapati Narayanaswamy, L.: Unveiling the Subjectivity in Ranking of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Models Over Munneru River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7159, 2024.

The influence of anthropogenic (ANT) activity and the other external factors on extreme temperature changes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia are analysed using the different forcing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The optimal fingerprinting technique and the probability ratio (PR) are employed to detect and quantify the influences of the external forcings on extreme temperature changes, which include annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), annual minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn). Results indicate that TXx and TNn have increased from 1979 to 2014, and the simulations from historical (anthropogenic plus natural; ALL), greenhouse gas (GHG), and anthropogenic (ANT) experiments reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme temperatures. Based on the optimal fingerprinting method, the impact of ANT forcing, in which GHG forcing is critical, can be detected in the changes of warm extremes and cold extremes. ANT and NAT forcings are separately detectable for warm extremes. GHG forcing can be separated from other ANT forcings for cold extremes but not warm extremes. Furthermore, the analysis applying the PR method shows that the probability of observed warm extremes that occur once in 20 years over the mid–high latitudes of Asia has risen by approximately three times owing to the anthropogenic influence, whereas the cold extremes became once in 50 years. Briefly, the increased anthropogenic activity has exacerbated the warm extremes and soothed the cold extremes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia during the past decades.

How to cite: Jiang, W. and Chen, H.: Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature changes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7881, 2024.

The occurrence of more frequent and extensive wildfires is a widely discussed potential consequence of climate change, stemming from a vicious cycle of cause and effect in which wildfires are taking part. Global and regional wildfire patterns and changes are driven by climate-related factors such as land cover, heat waves, and rainfall patterns. Wildfires can, in turn, cause climate perturbations through the emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and through the alteration of landscapes. For these reasons, understanding wildfires and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere is crucial for assessing a potentially important climate feedback.

The current study focuses on the interconnection between wildfires and the atmosphere, and more precisely on the radiative effect of wildfire emissions on a global scale. To achieve this, simulations using the EC-Earth Earth System Model (ESM) were employed. More specifically, a 30-year atmosphere-only (fixed-SST) control simulation was performed for the pre-industrial period, and repeated with the wildfire aerosol emissions set to present-day values. Using the output of these simulations, we estimate the global effective radiative forcing (ERF) of wildfire-emitted aerosols from pre-industrial times to the present day. We also identify which regions experience stronger forcing from wildfire emissions, and separate the role of black carbon and organic carbon in driving this forcing. Finally, we identify mechanisms that lead to fast atmospheric adjustments following wildfire emissions, including changes in temperatures, humidity, precipitation, and clouds. This analysis contributes to the better understanding of the historical evolution of radiative forcing and the role of wildfires in the climate system.

How to cite: Mourgela, R. N., Boleti, E., Seiradakis, K., Wyser, K., Le Sager, P., Gkouvousis, A., and Voulgarakis, A.: Studying the pre-industrial to present-day radiative forcing from wildfire aerosols using EC-Earth, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8659, 2024.

Anthropogenic activities have disrupted the energy balance of the planet since preindustrial era through, among other drivers, the emission of various greenhouse gases and aerosols. The largest uncertainty to current climate forcing and future projections relates to the effect of aerosols. Their different impacts on the planet’s radiative balance, that is, with direct radiative and indirect cloud interaction forcing, need to be considered accurately in simple policy-informing climate models. Especially in the context of high ambition mitigation scenarios, variability in the future development of spatiotemporal aerosol forcing will have a relatively large impact on climate projections. Accordingly, an accurate inclusion of the relevant processes onto the modeling scheme, such as the spatiotemporal level of detail chosen when accounting for aerosol forcing in simple(r) climate models must be carefully considered.

Here we explore the impact of different aerosols implementation schemes in an intermediate complexity Earth system model configuration with an energy moisture balance model (UVic ESCM, version 2.10). While the global mean forcing is the same for all scenarios, we vary spatial and temporal resolution of optical depth maps or implement aerosol forcing as direct radiative forcing to the Earth system. These schemes are applied to relevant ambitious mitigation scenarios aiming at temperature stabilization, which will become especially relevant in the upcoming CMIP exercises. Using a newly developed assessment framework, we will provide insights into the impacts of this model implementation choice onto future temperature development, the carbon cycle and heat uptake processes. Ultimately these insights aim to improve, constrain and design better scenario simulations that are both applicable and relevant to the scientific and decision-making communities.

How to cite: Monteiro, E. and Mengis, N.: How your aerosol implementation choices affect your model’s climate system response, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8690, 2024.

Explosive volcanic eruptions injecting gases and aerosols into the stratosphere are a key natural driver of climate variability at annual to centennial timescales. They are thus one of the forcings considered by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team, in charge of identifying and implementing the next generation forcings for current and future generations of Earth System models. This presentation will provide an overview of ongoing work to produce volcanic forcing datasets for phase 7 of CMIP (CMIP7).

The datasets we produce will cover the period from 1750 to 2022 at version 1 to meet to the need of modelling groups who might run extended historical simulations starting in 1750 instead of 1850. We are producing one volcanic stratospheric sulfur emission dataset catering for the needs of models which have a prognostic interactive stratospheric aerosol scheme, as well as a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset required by models that cannot interactively simulate stratospheric sufate aerosols. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), sulfur emissions and sufate aerosol optical properties are based on NASA’s MSVOLSO2L4 and GloSSAC datasets, respectively. For the pre-satellite era (1750-1978), the emission dataset is based on ice-core datasets complemented by the geological record, whereas the aerosol optical property dataset is directly derived from emissions using the latest version of the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) model. This ensures methodological consistency between our emission and optical property datasets, further enhanced by the fact that EVA is calibrated using the same datasets we use for the satellite era. Our choice of methods aims to maximize consistency with methodologies used in individual model intercomparison projects (e.g. PMIP and VolMIP). A major focus of our task team is to produce well-documented datasets, which includes extensive meta-data and flags, detailed documentation, and provision of open-access scripts used to create the datasets, which should facilitate future development and operationalization by the community. We also discuss the most critical challenges for providing accurate volcanic forcing datasets, including the under-recording of small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions before the satellite era, and the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai 2022 eruptions, which injected relatively small amounts of sulfur, but 150 Tg of water into the stratosphere.

How to cite: Aubry, T., Schmidt, A., Kovilakam, M., Toohey, M., and Sigl, M.: Historical volcanic sulfur emissions and stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical properties for CMIP7, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9312, 2024.

Fires impact a suite of radiative forcing agents but fire is one of the most challenging sources of emissions to model due to a large degree of stochasticism and a wide range of climatic and human influences that can both increase and decrease the occurrence of fires. Although many Earth system models now account for fires, there is still a need for a coherent and consistent community dataset to intercompare and constrain models. We developed a historic dataset combining satellite data over the past two decades with proxy data and fire models for use in CMIP6. Since then, new satellite data has indicated that global burned area may be much higher than previously thought and several regional datasets have shed light on the question whether fire emissions are now higher or not than in the pre-industrial era. We show how the latest insight and developments will be used to construct an updated fire emissions dataset for CMIP7, and show which fire categories carry the largest uncertainty, both for the past and into the future.

How to cite: van der Werf, G. and van Marle, M.: Biomass burning emissions since the pre-industrial and into the future; progress and challenges, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9994, 2024.

Water vapor is one of the fundamental atmospheric components, and as such, is one  Essential Climate Variable  (ECV) monitored by the Global Climate Observing System. In this work, the global water vapor Climate Data Record (CDR) generated within the ESA Water Vapor climate change initiative project (WV_cci) is used as reference (daily, 0.1°, 2003-2014) to evaluate a sample of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as well as the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5), with a focus on temporal signal decomposition. This temporal decomposition is performed using multi-resolution analysis (MRA). MRA is a mathematical tool which consists of decomposing a signal into its subcomponents on different time scales. Using this tool, the representation of the total column water vapor over the tropics in the CMIP6 models and ERA5 can be assessed separately from daily to annual and decadal time scales, including monthly and seasonal time scales. This approach is powerful for the  identification of  the relevant time scales for which CMIP6 predictions are most reliable. Hence, at the global-tropical scale, the MRA decomposition of the water vapor signal shows a good correlation between CMIP6 and WV_cci on both seasonal (2 - 8 months) and annual (1 - 1.4 year) time scales. Using a linear regression, we attempt to reconstruct the WV_cci signal using the CMIP6 models and ERA5 as explanatory variables based on the correlation found between the products and WV_cci at each level of decomposition. Such reconstruction highlights the scales of variability that are closest to the observed one. The presentation will detail the MRA approach and the most prominent results, as well as an extension to other parameters linked to atmospheric water vapor distribution, namely cloud cover and types and sea surface temperature. 

How to cite: Ngoungue Langue, C. G., Brogniez, H., and Naveau, P.: CMIP6 models evaluation using multi-resolution analysis and satellite observations : study of the atmospheric water vapor , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10136, 2024.

Surface air-sea feedbacks play a pivotal role in modulating the amplitude of global ocean warming. Zhang and Li (2014, ZL14) introduced a simple theoretical framework to identify the driving processes responsible for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) increase under global warming. This method involves decomposing changes in latent and upwelling longwave surface heat fluxes into two parts: one tied to direct atmospheric forcing and the other directly associated with local (SST) changes, termed feedback. Applying this heat budget equation across 53 CMIP5 and 6 models underscores the pivotal role of increased surface downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) in steering the amplitude of future global ocean warming. However, ZL14 solely considered DLR as a direct forcing, overlooking its substantial feedback response to surface warming.

In this study, we employ a novel methodology from Shakespeare and Roderick (2022, SR22) to decompose DLR changes into a direct radiative forcing and SST-related feedbacks, evaluating the implications of integrating the DLR feedback in the ZL14 framework. Our analysis is in line with SR22’s findings across 5 CMIP5 models, our results across 53 models indicate that roughly 90% of DLR increase emerges from feedbacks associated with the rising SST. The large ocean heat capacity transfers warming to the overlying atmosphere, increasing its DLR primarily through direct air temperature increase and the increasing greenhouse effect associated with increased water vapour.

Incorporating the DLR feedback in ZL14 framework yields a dominant effect of latent heat flux forcing on global ocean warming for both multi-model mean and intermodel diversity. This latent heat flux forcing is related to the evaporative cooling modulation associated with projected changes in the surface atmospheric circulation, and is highly correlated with the magnitude of the global average warming. This underscores the substantial influence of projected atmospheric circulation changes on the level of global average warming.

How to cite: Sadhvi, K., Lengaigne, M., Vialard, J., Danielli, V., Suresh, G., and Iyyappan, S.: A key role of surface atmospheric circulation changes in setting global ocean warming magnitude, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10382, 2024.

Large uncertainty in model predictions of land carbon responses to climate change has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs). The large uncertainty become a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify sources of the uncertainty before we can fully understand and address the uncertainty issue. In this presentation, I show a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of model uncertainty in predicting carbon dynamics in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and increasing temperature. We developed a matrix-based MIP by converting the carbon cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and increasing temperature, predicted ecosystem net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and net ecosystem carbon storage spread among the eight models as simulations go over time. We applied the traceability analysis method to decompose simulated carbon dynamics to their traceable components according to the matrix equations. Our analysis indicates that the uncertainty among the eight models was mainly due to inter-model difference in baseline carbon residence time and environmental scalar. Once the sources of model uncertainty were identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem carbon storage and NEP to almost none. Our study demonstrates that the sources of uncertainty in carbon cycle modeling can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, so that the uncertainty issue for MIPs can be precisely understood and well addressed.

How to cite: Luo, Y.: Uncertainty spreading and shrinking among eight land carbon cycle models in response to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10567, 2024.

So-called “radiative" or "rapid" adjustments describe the surface-temperature-independent response of the climate state to an instantaneous radiative forcing. However, the term “rapid” can be misleading since various processes are considered adjustments, which appear on timescales of hours (e.g. aerosol-cloud-interactions) to month (e.g. stratospheric temperature change) or even longer timescales (e.g. adjustments of biosphere and cryosphere). On time scales of months and longer, differentiating between adjustments and feedbacks becomes increasingly difficult. Depending on the scientific method the definition of “adjustments” and which processes are considered can vary. Nevertheless, a good understanding of these processes is crucial for improving climate models and advance our general understanding of how the Earth climate system reacts to a forcing.

The abrupt-solm4p experiment from CFMIP (Cloud Forcing Model Intercomparison Project) from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) simulates an instantaneous reduction of the solar constant by 4% branching from a pre-industrial control run on 01/01/1850. We analysed changes in geographical distribution as well as global mean temporal development of various climate variables (e.g. surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, humidity), different cloud properties (e.g. cloud cover, column integrated liquid and ice water), as well as radiative fluxes at top of atmosphere and the cloud radiative effect. The different variables were evaluated on timescales of hours, days, months and up to 150 years after the onset of forcing, in order to learn more about the timing of different adjustment processes. Four different models participated in the abrupt-solm4p experiment. Their outputs were compared and possible source of differences discussed. During the first hours all models unanimously simulate decreasing surface and atmospheric temperature, especially strong in the Antarctica, which experiences 24hr irradiation at the onset of forcing. In the beginning, the stratospheric cooling is strongest. The moderate cooling of the troposphere leads to increased condensation and thereby increased cloud cover, even in Northern latitudes, that do not directly experience the forcing, and strengthened precipitation in the tropics. 

In a next step, we plan to compare the results from abrupt-solm4p (CFMIP) to simulations of a homogeneous stratospheric sulfate scattering-layer and to the volc-pinatubo-full-experiment (VolMIP). We expect some similarities between the simulated adjustments in these experiments, because in all three cases, incoming solar radiation is reduced in the troposphere and at surface level. However, more realistic experiments, like the volc-pinatubo experiment are expected to show more complex adjustments and the comparison to more simplified experiments like abrupt-solm4p might provide valuable insights to adjustment processes after volcanic eruptions.

How to cite: Lange, C. and Quaas, J.: Radiative adjustments after a 4%-reduction of the solar constant, based on data from the abrupt-solm4p experiment (CFMIP from CMIP6), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11255, 2024.

Records of the volcanic forcing of climate prior to the satellite era depend on scaling the flux of sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets­ using a ‘transfer function’, a number calibrated based on radioactivity in Greenland from thermonuclear testing as well as Antarctic sulfate flux records from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption (e.g. Gao et al., 2007). For high latitude eruptions, this transfer function is based solely on model simulations of sulfate flux to Greenland from the Icelandic Laki eruption in 1783 and the Alaskan Katmai/Novarupta eruption in 1912 (Gao et al., 2007).  Since the initial determination of this transfer function, the number of ice cores containing sulfate from the Pinatubo eruption has increased eight-fold, and sulfur isotope measurements at high resolution over sulfate peaks in the ice has allowed for discrimination between stratospheric sulfate and sulfate transported at lower levels in the atmosphere from different sources (e.g. Burke et al., 2023). Here we revisit the estimation of the transfer function in light of these new data-based constraints from eruptions in the 20^th century, and we reassess the uncertainty associated with the application of a single transfer function across volcanic eruptions in the past.

Gao, C., Oman, L., Robock, A. and Stenchikov, G.L., 2007. Atmospheric volcanic loading derived from bipolar ice cores: Accounting for the spatial distribution of volcanic deposition. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D9).

Burke, A., Innes, H.M., Crick, L., Anchukaitis, K.J., Byrne, M.P., Hutchison, W., McConnell, J.R., Moore, K.A., Rae, J.W., Sigl, M. and Wilson, R., 2023. High sensitivity of summer temperatures to stratospheric sulfur loading from volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(47), p.e2221810120.

How to cite: Burke, A., Fuglestvedt, H., Thomas, L., Marshall, L., and Krüger, K.: Revisiting the ‘transfer function’ of stratospheric sulfur loading from volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12768, 2024.

Questions regarding the uncertainty of trends in both historical and projected climate model simulations have been limited by uncertainty about the relative importance of internal variability and external forcing to trends over the relatively short observational record. For example, is the discrepancy between historically simulated tropical Pacific trends (El Niño-like) and observations (broadly, La Niña-like) over recent decades a reflection of sampling issues or model error in internal variability and/or forced global responses (either locally or remotely, such as from the Southern Ocean)? At the same time, it is known that systematic operational seasonal forecast errors (e.g., westward shift of ENSO) are dominated by model errors that develop quite quickly, on the order of a few months of forecast lead time.

Here, we suggest that climate model trend errors can be usefully investigated by examining their rapid development within seasonal hindcast datasets. We show that many apparent climate simulation trend discrepancies are evident in trends computed from monthly seasonal hindcasts over the 1994-2016 period for a suite of operational initialised forecast models from C3S and NMME, and in many cases are well developed even at short lead times. These hindcasts use models similar to CMIP-class models and include the same CMIP historical external forcings, but critically are initialised with observations, removing uncertainty related to internal variability. We find these trend errors in many different regions worldwide for several key variables, including sea surface temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure, and investigate their seasonal dependence as well. Notably, we find tropical Pacific "El Niño-like" SST trend errors in all seasons but spring, and related surface pressure, temperature, and precipitation errors in autumn and spring, especially in the North America region. We also find errors in Southern Ocean SSTs, which develop less rapidly than the tropical Pacific SST errors or their global teleconnections.

We suggest that these hindcast trend errors reflect sensitivity of the model mean biases to the changing radiative forcing, rather than a forced response. That is, similarity between errors in free running simulations and hindcasts is a result of the seasonal forecast models quickly transitioning from nature’s attractor to the climate model attractor, particularly in the atmospheric model component. This suggests that we might be able to better diagnose the climate model trend errors by looking at the early development of the forecast trend error in the seasonal forecast models.

How to cite: Beverley, J., Newman, M., and Hoell, A.: Rapid development of systematic trend errors in seasonal forecasts and their connection to CMIP6 trend errors, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14596, 2024.

The pattern of surface warming plays a significant role in determining the Earth's response to radiative forcing. Indeed, the Earth's radiative response is intricately linked to the intensity of climate feedbacks, which, in turn, are influenced by the regional distribution of surface warming. Distinct patterns of surface warming lead to divergent equilibrium and transient responses to identical forcing, emphasizing the need to analyse this pattern effect to understand the climate responses to external forcing.

While existing studies have primarily focused on assessing the influence of warming patterns on long-term warming, such as equilibrium climate sensitivity or committed warming, the role of warming patterns in shaping the transient trajectory of global warming remains poorly understood. In this study, we introduce a novel analytical method to quantify the importance of evolving warming patterns on transient global warming.

Our approach involves developing a multivariate global energy budget, which provides a unified framework for interpreting the sensitivity of the radiative response of the Earth to the warming pattern. This framework explicitly separates the radiative response caused by the global mean temperature increase, from the additional response induced by changing temperature patterns.

Using this new energy balance model, we assess the relative contributions of the direct radiative forcing and changing temperature patterns to the global mean temperature change in linearly increasing forcing experiments (1pctCO2) from nine CMIP6 models. We show that the pattern effect consistently dampens global warming in the first 100 years of all simulations studied. Specifically, we quantify that the transient climate response, reached after 70 years of simulations, would be 0.4±0.2K higher (equivalent to a 20±15% increase) if the warming was uniformly distributed (i.e. in the absence of changing warming patterns).

Furthermore, our study demonstrates that distinct models exhibit significantly divergent transient global warming patterns solely due to variations in the pattern effect. Overall, our results highlight the importance of changing warming patterns, specifically through the pattern effect, in influencing decadal-scale transient warming. These findings notably support recent suggestions to incorporate warming pattern uncertainties in future climate projections.

How to cite: Guillaume-Castel, R., Meyssignac, B., and Roca, R.: Assessing the Impact of Changing Warming Patterns on Transient Global Warming: A Multivariate Energy Budget Approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14986, 2024.

The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences in the Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS/KMA) has been actively contributing to the CMIP program since CMIP3. NIMS participated in CMIP6 through a collaborative effort with the UK Met Office Hadley Centre as part of a mutually agreed scientific plan. Within this collaboration, NIMS utilized the Earth System Model developed by the UK Met Office (UKESM) to generate future climate change scenarios for four distinct Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). NIMS also employed the KMA Advanced Community Earth (K-ACE) model, a modified version of HadGEM2-AO developed through in-house research, to analyze global climate projections. Five different regional climate models were used for the regional climate simulations: HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, CCLM, GRIMs, and WRF, organized under the CORDEX-EA (East Asia) program. Furthermore, for the South Korean area, NIMS produced 1km resolution climate change scenario data using the statistical downscaling technique, the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)-based Dynamic downscaling Error correction (PRIDE). These projections played a pivotal role in contributing to the preparation of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and provided crucial foundational data for national climate change adaptation efforts.

Currently, NIMS has initiated preparations for CMIP7 participation. In this program, K-ACE will be employed for producing global climate projections, having undergone improvements such as coupling with an ocean-biogeochemistry model, TOPAZ, and modifications to the cloud-aerosol process, among other enhancements. NIMS plans to use a reduced number of RCMs compared to the CMIP6 phase but intends to increase the ensemble members by combining physical processes. Currently under consideration as RCM candidates are WRF and WRF-ROMS. To comprehend the impact of climate change on local-scale heavy rain, a Convection Permitting Model (CPM) with a spatial resolution of about 2.5km can be employed. For the South Korean region, our objective is to produce more high-resolution, detailed climate scenarios through sensitivity experiments and reliability verification studies.

This presentation aims to introduce KMA's Earth System Models, aligning with recent trends and developments outlined in CMIP7, and presenting the overall plans for the generation and utilization of global-regional-local climate projections in line with CMIP7.

How to cite: Chung, C.-Y., Byun, Y.-H., Sung, H. M., Kim, J.-U., and Shim, S.: NIMS/KMA Plans for Climate Change Projection Production and Utilization on CMIP7, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17153, 2024.

Given the fact that many Icelandic volcanic systems are on the verge of an eruption, producing some of the largest volcanic eruptions over the past millennia, e.g., Öræfajökull, Bárðabunga, Grímsvötn and the Katla system, it is important to be able to predict potential changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate variability in the following years after an NH eruption in due time. Recent volcanic activity in Iceland, e.g., Holuhraun 2014-2015 and Reykjanes/Geldingadalur 2021-2023, further demonstrates this urgency.

With the aim to contribute to improving the forcasting and adaptation strategies for the North Atlantic region we, as a first step, forced an Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) with an idealized long-lasting high-latitude volcanic eruption to quantify i) the response within the stratospheric polar vortex and ii) the resulting response within the coupled climate system in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by assessing the first 15 years following the eruption focusing on the winter (DJF) response. Here results will be presented showing evidence of sudden stratospheric warming events and a deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex occurring in the second and third post-volcanic winter. This is identified in the temperature and zonal winds at 50hPa as a result of the large modelled surface cooling in the NH where Eliassen-Palmer wave flux calculations further support these findings. The strong stratospheric response identified further influences surface climate throughout the continental NH in the first 5 years following this event via the NAO. Our result suggest that two competing mechanisms are at work during these first years, partly explaining this long-lasting short-term response. The long-term impact is identified as a change in regional surface temperature and sea ice variability as well as a general strengthening of the AMOC, reaching a maximum in winter 2 and remaining positive throughout the run.

How to cite: Guðlaugsdóttir, H., Peings, Y., Zanchettin, D., and Magnúsdóttir, G.: Modelling the climate response following idealized long-lasting high latitude volcanic eruptions: The stratospheric response and resulting implications for North Atlantic surface weather, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19839, 2024.

Reconstructions of past volcanic forcing rely on the assumption that the stratospheric sulphur loading from eruptions in the pre-satellite era is directly proportional to the sulphate flux recorded in polar ice sheets. The scaling factors, known as "transfer functions," used for this calculation are currently based on the Antarctic sulphate flux following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, radioactivity in Greenland ice from nuclear weapon tests, and model simulations of two high-latitude eruptions. However, recent studies have shown that ice sheet deposition of volcanic sulphate varies significantly as a function of both eruptive parameters and the background atmospheric state, presenting an opportunity to enhance the accuracy and reliability of volcanic forcing reconstructions through improving the use of transfer functions.