Presentation type:
G – Geodesy

EGU25-6899 | ECS | Orals | MAL31-G

The art of VLBI scheduling 

Matthias Schartner

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is a truly global scientific effort that demands rigorous coordination among a network of telescopes distributed worldwide. Central to this collaboration is the generation and distribution of a synchronized observation plan, a task typically called scheduling. Given a network of telescopes, a catalog of celestial sources, and a constrained time window, the goal of scheduling is to find an optimal sequence of observations to achieve the best possible scientific outcomes.

The complexity of this task arises from the virtually infinite number of potential schedules, making it practically impossible to find the most perfect solution. Instead, the objective is to generate a schedule that balances quality with practical constraints. Additionally, numerous optimization criteria must be considered, such as maximizing the number of observations for increased redundancy, ensuring a well-distributed coverage in azimuth and elevation angles to mitigate atmospheric effects, and achieving a balanced distribution of observations across the network and sources to enhance the parameter estimation process. Unfortunately, many of these criteria are in direct conflict with each other, further complicating the optimization process.

However, the importance of optimized scheduling cannot be overstated, as it directly determines the data available for analysis and, consequently, the quality of the scientific results. In recent years, significant progress has been made in VLBI scheduling algorithms. State-of-the-art practices involve generating hundreds of potential schedules for each experiment and using simulations to evaluate and select the optimal one. Nowadays, developing advanced scheduling algorithms requires a multifaceted approach, encompassing the creation of logical observation sequences, the generation of high-quality simulations, and the application of cutting-edge analysis and parameter estimation techniques. Additionally, new observing scenarios emerging from upcoming satellite missions, e.g. Genesis, combined with the more interdisciplinary application of VLBI resources, are fundamentally changing scheduling optimization objectives.

In this lecture, I will give a brief introduction to VLBI scheduling, highlighting its unique and exciting challenges. I will discuss recent advancements in scheduling algorithms and their impact on VLBI science. Furthermore, I will provide insights into future challenges and opportunities.

How to cite: Schartner, M.: The art of VLBI scheduling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6899, 2025.

EGU25-14370 | Orals | MAL31-G

Gravity, Climate and Quantum 

Rene Forsberg

Gravity measurements and geoid determination is a fundamental pillar of geodesy, and despite of roots going back more than two centuries, it is still a very active research field, with satellite and airborne data collection finally making global detailed gravity field coverage and thus a few-cm accuracy geoid within reach, a holy grail of geodesy for decades. Recent years have seen major efforts to cover the most inaccessible areas of the planet with gravity, especially the polar and mountainous areas, thanks to the development of airborne gravity sensors and long-range data campaigns. Parallel with this, climate applications of gravity measurements, both in space and in situ, have made gravity field change measurements more relevant than ever, especially for understanding global sea level rise and the melting of the large icesheets. Ongoing R&D in developing quantum methods for both in-situ, kinematic and space applications further points to new directions and applications for geodetic, geophysical and environmental applications of gravity field data, securing gravity field science key developments in the years to come. The Vening-Meinesz talk will address many recent developments in the above fields, and highlights the new opportunities for the next generation of geodesists.   

How to cite: Forsberg, R.: Gravity, Climate and Quantum, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14370, 2025.

The tectonic framework of Bhutan Himalaya documents significant along-strike variability in crustal structure and deformation. To visualize this spatial and depth variability, we compile an extensive dataset of surface-wave phase velocities derived from seismic ambient noise and teleseismic earthquakes recorded by the temporary GANSSER network (2013-2014) in Bhutan, aiming to produce Rayleigh phase-velocity maps over the period range of 4 to 50 seconds. We translate the phase-velocity maps into a 3-D shear-wave velocity model stretching from the surface to a depth of 42 kilometres. The employed methodologies enable imaging of the upper to mid-crustal and lower crustal velocity anomalies with a lateral resolution of approximately 25 km. The obtained tomographic model fills a void in the prior established shear-wave velocity structure of Bhutan, encompassing depths from upper-crustal to lowermost crust. Our findings indicate notable mid-crustal to lower-crustal high phase velocity anomalies in central Bhutan (around 90.5). The presence of this significant anomaly within the mid- to lower crustal layer may indicate localized stress accumulation along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) resulting from the interaction of the dipping and sub-horizontal Moho. This area might act as a stress concentration zone, resulting in increased deformation and enhanced shear-wave velocity in the crust. Minor fluctuations in velocity across latitude may result from variations in the local geometry of MHT (dip or ramp-flat transition). Localised high shear velocity in western Bhutan may indicate a zone of crustal thickening. Northeastern Bhutan exhibits modest shear velocity, possibly because of a flat Moho and the partial creeping behaviour of the MHT.

 

How to cite: Kumar, G. and Tiwari, A. K.: Multiscale Surface Wave Tomography of the Bhutan Himalayas using Ambient Seismic Noise and Teleseismic Earthquake Data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1021, 2025.

EGU25-1178 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

3-D Crustal Shear Wave Velocity Tomography Using Seismic Ambient Noise Data in Southeast Tibet, Close to Namcha Barwa Mountain 

Aven Mandi, Gaurav Kumar, Nitarani Bishoyi, and Ashwani Kant Tiwari

Southeastern Tibet, a segment of the eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, is a significantly deformed area resulting from multistage subduction and the ongoing collision of the Indian and Asian tectonic plates. The region has a clockwise material movement around the indenting corner of the Indian plate, evident on the surface as strike-slip faults aligned with the Himalayan Arc. Numerous scientific studies have focused on the east-west extension and tectonic history of southeastern Tibet; however, the scientific enquiries regarding the depth constraints of the crustal flow process—specifically, whether it is confined to the middle crust or extends to the lower crust beneath southeastern Tibet—remain unresolved. This study employs ambient noise tomography to  examine a 3-D high-resolution crustal velocity model for the region, which is crucial for unravelling the mechanisms that regulate crustal deformation and evolution in active orogenic systems. To do this, we examined ambient noise data from 48 seismic stations of the XE network, operational from 2003 to 2004. We obtained Rayleigh wave phase velocities ranging from 4 to 60 seconds and subsequently inverted them to develop a 3-D shear wave velocity model of the region extending to depths of 50 km. Our results reveal persistent low shear wave velocity zones at depths of 15–25 km (within the mid-crust), notably observed between the Indus Tsangpo suture and the Bangong-Nujiang Suture. We contend that the detected low-velocity zones are only linked to mid-crustal channel flow, a mechanism presumably essential for comprehending crustal deformation. Our findings provide significant constraints on the depth localisation of crustal channel flow and the interaction of tectonic forces in southern Tibet, enhancing the overall comprehension of Eastern Syntaxial tectonics.

How to cite: Mandi, A., Kumar, G., Bishoyi, N., and Tiwari, A. K.: 3-D Crustal Shear Wave Velocity Tomography Using Seismic Ambient Noise Data in Southeast Tibet, Close to Namcha Barwa Mountain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1178, 2025.

With the continuous development of deep learning technologies, fault prediction techniques based on various neural networks have been evolving. The deep learning modules based on U-Net residual networks have shown significant advantages in both learning efficiency and effectiveness. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model that integrates a 3D U-Net residual architecture, Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM), and Multi-scale Enhanced Global Attention (MEGA) module for automatic seismic fault detection and segmentation. This model can effectively handle complex 3D seismic data, fully exploiting both spatial and channel information, significantly improving the prediction accuracy for small faults, while only slightly increasing the computational cost.

Firstly, the model uses the 3D U-Net as the backbone framework, where the residual blocks (BasicRes) extract features through multiple convolution layers. The CBAM module is incorporated to apply attention weighting, enhancing the model's ability to focus on critical information. The CBAM module combines channel attention and spatial attention, effectively adjusting the importance of feature maps from different dimensions, enabling the model to identify potential fault features in complex seismic data.

Secondly, the MEGA module is introduced into the model, which further improves the model's feature representation ability by fusing multi-scale features and applying a global attention mechanism. By weighting global information, the MEGA module helps the model better capture key seismic fault features during feature fusion. This design allows the model to focus not only on local details but also to fully utilize the global contextual information in 3D data, thereby enhancing the accuracy of fault detection.

After validation, the model achieved promising results in seismic fault detection tasks, automatically identifying and segmenting fault structures in seismic data. The accuracy was improved from 80% with the original 3D U-Net residual network to 85%-87%. This provides strong support for applications such as seismic exploration and subsurface imaging.

Keywords: Seismic Fault Detection, 3D U-Net, Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM), Multi-scale Enhanced Global Attention (MEGA), Deep Learning

How to cite: wang, Y.: Application of Optimized 3D U-Net Residual Network with CBAM and MEGA Modules in Seismic Fault Detection, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1772, 2025.

This article mainly studies the characteristics of the earthquake sequence and the post - earthquake trend of the Ms6.4 earthquake in Yangbi, Yunnan,China on May 21, 2021. The research area is located in Yangbi Yi Autonomous County in the western part of Yunnan Province. The earthquake caused severe disasters such as housing destruction, traffic interruption, water conservancy facilities damage and power supply interruption. Through the analysis of the basic parameters of the earthquake, the tectonic stress environment and the seismogenic structure, it is determined that the earthquake is a right - lateral strike - slip rupture, with a focal depth of 8 kilometers, consistent with the direction of the Weixi - Qiaohou and Honghe fault zones. The earthquake sequence type is determined as the main shock - aftershock type (including the foreshock - main shock - aftershock type). Spatially, the source rupture expands unilaterally from the northwest to the southeast, mostly occurring in the upper crust high - speed zone or the high - low speed transition zone. Based on the G - R relationship and other analyses, the earthquake activity cycle in this area has active and quiet periods, and there are certain abnormal change laws before strong aftershocks, such as strain accumulation, calmness or enhancement of earthquakes above magnitude 3.5, and abnormal frequency of earthquakes above magnitude 2. The conclusion is that the earthquake sequence is normal, and the post - earthquake trend shows the characteristics of long - term calmness - breaking calmness - becoming calm again - signal earthquake (main shock). In the next few years, the strain accumulation may reach the peak and release. It is predicted that there may be a larger earthquake accompanied by strong aftershocks in 2025, or enter an active period with a strong aftershock magnitude exceeding 5.9 and lasting for more than half a year. Finally, the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction countermeasures are proposed.

How to cite: Wu, B.: The determination of the seismic sequence characteristics and post - earthquake trend of the Ms6.4 earthquake in Yangbi, Yunnan, China on May 21, 2021, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2519, 2025.

EGU25-2973 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

Post stack inversion of seismic data based on Semi-supervised learning 

chunli zou, junhua zhang, binbin tang, and zheng huang

Seismic inversion in geophysics is a method that uses certain prior information, such as known geological laws and well logging and drilling data, to infer the physical parameters of underground media, such as wave impedance, velocity, and density, from seismic observation data, and thereby obtain the spatial structure and physical properties of underground strata. Seismic inversion is a highly complex problem with multiple solutions, and with the advancement of collection equipment, the volume of geophysical observation data is increasing at an astonishing rate. This presents new challenges for the accuracy and speed of seismic data inversion methods. There is an urgent need to develop intelligent and efficient inversion technologies for seismic inversion.

Deep learning networks have powerful nonlinear fitting capabilities and can be used to solve complex nonlinear problems, such as seismic inversion. However, the predictive ability of deep learning networks largely depends on the quantity of training data. In the early stages of oil and gas exploration and development, the amount of well logging label data available for training is very limited, which poses a challenge for the application of deep learning in seismic inversion. Semi-supervised learning seismic inversion methods consider both data mismatch issues and well logging data mismatch issues, and can better adapt to inversion problems in real-world scenarios. Unlike supervised learning approaches, semi-supervised learning does not require a large amount of labeled data, thus it can better handle situations of data scarcity or mismatch.

This paper utilizes a semi-supervised learning workflow to perform inversion on post-stack seismic data and has conducted experimental validation on the Marmousi 2 model. The experimental results show that, compared to supervised learning networks, the semi-supervised learning network still exhibits good predictive performance with a limited amount of data, demonstrating better stability in the presence of noise and geological variations, and effectively learns the mapping relationship between seismic data and artificial intelligence. Furthermore, as the amount of training data increases, the performance of the network also improves, confirming the importance of data quantity for training deep learning networks. The application results of the network on actual data indicate that the network has broad application prospects and feasibility. However, since the network is based on a channel-by-channel inversion method, there is still a lack of representation in terms of lateral continuity, which requires further exploration and improvement in subsequent research.

How to cite: zou, C., zhang, J., tang, B., and huang, Z.: Post stack inversion of seismic data based on Semi-supervised learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2973, 2025.

Seismic attribute analysis technology has been widely used in the prediction of fluvial reservoir sand body, but the traditional seismic attribute fusion technology based on linear model has low prediction accuracy and limited application range. This study focused on the non-linear fitting between seismic attributes and reservoir thickness, and used a variety of machine learning technologies to predict the fluvidal reservoir in Chengdao area of Dongying Sag (China).The channel sand body in Chengdao area is deep buried, thin in thickness, fast in velocity and affected by gray matter, so it is difficult to predict, which greatly restricts the oil and gas exploration in this area. In this study, on the basis of fine well earthquake calibration, several seismic attributes such as amplitude, frequency, phase, waveform and correlation are extracted and correlation analysis is done to remove redundant attributes. Then model training and parameter set optimization are carried out, thickness prediction is carried out with verification set, and vertical resolution is improved by logging reconstruction and waveform indication inversion. The results show that compared with the conventional support vector machine and back propagation neural network, the prediction accuracy of echo state network optimized by Sparrow algorithm is greatly improved. Based on the comprehensive prediction method of fluvial reservoir, three large channels developed in the lower part of Chengdao area and several small channels developed in the upper part of Chengdao area are effectively described. The research method can be used for reference to the similar complicated river facies prediction.

How to cite: Huang, Z. and Zhang, J.: Study and Case Application of Fluvial Reservoir Prediction Based on the Fusion of Seismic Attribute Analysis and Machine Learning Technologies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3391, 2025.

EGU25-3782 | Posters virtual | VPS21

Influence of paleochannels on liquefaction effects in the cities of Chone and Portoviejo (Ecuador) following the strong Pedernales earthquake in 2016 

José Luis Pastor, Eduardo Ortiz-Hernández, Theofilos Toulkeridis, and Kervin Chunga

A strong earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 7.8 and a nearby epicenter in the city of Pedernales, Ecuador, occurred on April 16, 2016. This seismic event severely affected several cities in Ecuador, including Chone and Portoviejo, both in the Manabí province, located some 85 km and 150 km away from the hypocenter, respectively. In Chone, a total of 662 homes were damaged, while 2,678 collapsed dwellings were registered in Portoviejo, where 137 fatalities were reported. These, like most cities in the Manabí province, were built in narrow valleys over colluvial and alluvial soils.  The thickness of these sediments in contact with the rock is between 40 and 70 meters, which corresponds to both ancient and contemporary alluvial plains that are supported by alluvial-colluvial and alluvial valley-fill deposits. After the 2016 interplate subduction earthquake, the main co-seismic geological effects were reported for constructions built on these soils. Landslides were primarily documented in the colluvial soils, while soil liquefaction effects were reported in soft and loose soils. In this research, the influence of the presence of paleochannels in both cities, Chone and Portoviejo, on the liquefaction effects reported during the seismic event is analyzed.

The Chone River flows through Chone city from east to west, while its western part was modified after 1975, leaving an abandoned meander where the river channel was between 7 and 22 meters wide. The soil profile in this area demonstrates a low percentage of fines, ranging from 15 to 52%, with a relative density of about 50%, making it susceptible to liquefaction. After the 2016 earthquake, evidence of liquefaction effects was concentrated along the old meander. The Portoviejo River, which flows through the city of Portoviejo, has changed from a pronounced meandering shape in 1911 to its current form. This change spans about 4.5 km with a low slope between 0.1 and 0.2%. The width of the river has also been reduced, from 12 to 19 meters. The analysis of the liquefaction evidence indicates that the damage was very severe, especially in the constructions along the river.

The damage inventories performed in both cities have evidenced that paleochannels exhibited several signs of soil liquefaction. The geological and geotechnical conditions of these soils, such as size distribution, shallow groundwater table and recent-age deposits, may be considered as factors potentially increasing the probability of liquefaction. Therefore, a geomorphological study of the cities can help identify areas with a higher liquefaction potential.

How to cite: Pastor, J. L., Ortiz-Hernández, E., Toulkeridis, T., and Chunga, K.: Influence of paleochannels on liquefaction effects in the cities of Chone and Portoviejo (Ecuador) following the strong Pedernales earthquake in 2016, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3782, 2025.

This paper proposes a deep learning model based on 3D Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and a custom attention mechanism (ESSAttn) for seismic fault interpretation from 3D seismic data. The model combines the advantages of self-attention mechanisms and convolutional neural networks to enhance the ability to capture and represent features in three-dimensional seismic data. The core innovation of the model lies in the introduction of the ESSAttn layer, which applies a non-traditional normalization process to the input feature queries, keys, and values, thereby strengthening the relationships between features, especially in high-dimensional seismic data. Unlike traditional attention mechanisms, the ESSAttn layer normalizes feature vectors by squaring them and integrates features across depth, width, height, and channel dimensions, significantly improving the effectiveness of attention computation.

The model's role in seismic fault interpretation is reflected in several aspects. First, the 3D convolutional layers automatically extract spatial features from seismic data, accurately capturing the location and shape of faults. Second, the ESSAttn layer enhances critical region features and focuses attention on important areas such as fault zones, reducing the interference from background noise and significantly improving fault detection accuracy. Finally, by using a weighted binary cross-entropy loss function, the model can prioritize fault regions when handling imbalanced data, improving sensitivity to weak fault signals.

The network architecture consists of three main parts: encoding, attention enhancement, and decoding. Initially, two 3D convolutional layers and max-pooling layers are used for feature extraction and down-sampling, followed by the ESSAttn layer to enhance the extracted features. The decoding part restores spatial resolution through upsampling and convolution layers, ultimately outputting the fault prediction results. The model is trained using the Adam optimizer, with a learning rate set to 1e-4.

Experimental results show that the model performs well in seismic fault interpretation tasks, effectively extracting and enhancing fault-related features. It is particularly suitable for automatic fault identification and localization in complex geological environments. The model's automation of feature extraction and enhancement reduces manual intervention, increases analysis efficiency, and demonstrates strong adaptability to large-scale 3D seismic datasets. Furthermore, the model architecture was visualized and saved using visualization tools for easier analysis and presentation.

Keywords: 3D Convolutional Neural Networks, ESSAttn, Attention Mechanism, Fault Interpretation, Weighted Cross-Entropy, 3D Seismic Data, Deep Learning

How to cite: zhang, Y.: "Deep Learning Application for Seismic Fault Interpretation Based on 3D Convolutional Neural Networks and ESSAttn Attention Mechanism", EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4961, 2025.

In Norcia, studies have been carried out to identify active and capable faults, faults for which there is evidence of repeated reactivation in the last 40,000 years and capable of breaking the topographic surface.
The studies have been carried out since 2004 and, over the years, interventions have been carried out on buildings positioned above them before the earthquakes occurred. The 2016 earthquake, which produced surface faulting phenomena, has allowed us to confirm the technical indications on land management drawn up by the Regional Geological Section and the effectiveness of the interventions carried out on the buildings. On the basis of the knowledge possible technical and regulatory actions were then identified. The intervention hypotheses that were developed (1, 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D) required that the designers, geologists and engineers specify the detail of the FAC trace, with respect to the footprint of the building involved, then carrying out a design with any special interventions for the reduction of geological risk, depending on the reconstruction intervention chosen.
1-In the case of availability of land by the owner, there are various possibilities of rebuilding in the same municipality or in another municipality with the relocation of the building accepted, on the owner's proposal.
2-Reconstruction in which the PZI indicates special interventions for the reduction of geological risk, which are approved by the CO and therefore do not require a variation to the urban planning tools.
Special interventions with the adoption of specific seabed techniques capable of resisting the movements of the FAC by means of slabs/double slabs and such as not to induce the breakage of the seabed works.
For the situation of Norcia and the peri-urban areas of the capital, a FAC scheme was defined by hypothesizing a normal fault with a displacement of 30 centimeters and considering, for safety reasons, a 45° inclined plane and not a pseudo-vertical one and therefore with relative horizontal displacements as well.
Interventions can be hypothesized with foundations with a slab with a joint (special intervention A) so that the structure is able to withstand the modification due to the relative movements and the size of the loads; or with foundations resting on a cantilever (special intervention B) only on the upstream side of the FAC or footwall (fault bed), since in these areas they are all normal faults; or with movement of the reconstruction bed which will be a slab (special intervention C); or other special interventions that demonstrate the substantial reduction in geological risk (special intervention D).
Reconstruction interventions with special interventions must not damage nearby buildings considering that there must in any case be a safety distance to avoid interference with nearby buildings equal to the height of the building to be rebuilt; reconstruction astride the FAC with a joint such as to allow movement and therefore the reconstructed building that must be cut to ensure that the possible movement does not damage the foundation slab and nearby buildings.

How to cite: Motti, A.: Active and capable faults (FAC) and buildings in Norcia, interventions carried out and possibile technicolor and regulatory actions., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5076, 2025.

EGU25-5528 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

Research on mine electrical resistivity inversion method based on Deep Learning Method 

Huricha Wang and Yunbing Hu

Coal seam floor water hazards, caused by stress changes resulting from coal mining, are a common type of mine water disaster, and their monitoring and prevention are critical for mine safety. The mine resistivity method, a geophysical exploration technique, is widely used for monitoring and detecting such water hazards due to its high sensitivity to water-bearing structures. In practical monitoring, it is necessary to rapidly and accurately invert apparent resistivity data. However, traditional linear inversion methods are prone to local optima, leading to biased results. In contrast, deep learning-based inversion methods utilize data mining to train networks, avoiding reliance on initial models and enabling fast computation of global optimal solutions.

This study constructs a multi-layer convolutional and skip-connected U-Net model to capture resistivity features at different scales. The model is trained and validated using synthetic data to evaluate its inversion accuracy and efficiency in monitoring coal seam floor water hazards. The results show that the U-Net-based inversion method can accurately identify low-resistivity anomalies associated with water hazards in the coal seam floor and quickly achieve the global optimal solution.

The method is further applied to the inversion of resistivity models with complex boundaries to simulate the impact of stress changes caused by coal mining on the formation of floor water hazards. The results demonstrate that this method is several times faster than traditional linear inversion methods, while maintaining high consistency with the actual model. Therefore, this inversion method provides an efficient new tool for monitoring coal seam floor water hazards and holds great promise for advancing technologies in mine water disaster prevention and geological exploration.

How to cite: Wang, H. and Hu, Y.: Research on mine electrical resistivity inversion method based on Deep Learning Method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5528, 2025.

EGU25-6545 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

Earthquake Moment Tensor Inversion Using 3D Velocity Model in the Himalayas 

Sushmita Maurya, Vipul Silwal, Rinku Mahanta, and Rahul Yadav

The Himalayan region, shaped by the ongoing collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, is one of Earth’s most seismically active and geologically complex areas. The Indian plate moves northeastward at a rate of approximately 5 cm per year, driving tectonic activity in this region. Understanding earthquake source mechanisms in this region is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and geodynamic studies. Moment tensor (MT) inversion, a widely used technique for analysing earthquake faulting mechanisms, matches synthetic waveforms to observed data by minimising the misfit. However, conventional 1D velocity models often fail to capture the region’s complex lateral heterogeneities, leading to inaccuracies in source characterisation. Synthetic waveforms, generated via Green’s functions using frequency waveform (FK) methods and 1D velocity models, are critical for MT solutions, with time shifts playing a pivotal role in achieving optimal waveform correlations.

This study employs a 3D velocity model to improve MT inversion for a Mw 3.5 earthquake on 9 January 2021 (30.76°N, 78.54°E). Green’s functions were generated using the spectral element method for six simulations. Each simulation resulted in three-component waveforms, with a total of 18 synthetics per station. Observed data from 24 broadband stations were analysed, and results were compared to those obtained using 1D models. Slight variations in strike, dip, and rake values underscore the limitations of 1D models in capturing Earth’s heterogeneities.

The study reveals that 3D velocity models significantly enhance MT solution accuracy, particularly in determining focal depths, faulting mechanisms, and seismic moment magnitudes. A probabilistic approach was also applied to quantify the uncertainty associated with MT estimates, providing confidence measures. Extending this approach, MT inversion was performed for another earthquake in the Uttarakhand Himalaya using the same 3D velocity model, further demonstrating the advantages of 3D wavefield simulations in seismically active regions.

Keywords: Himalayas, Moment Tensor, Green’s Function, Spectral element method.

How to cite: Maurya, S., Silwal, V., Mahanta, R., and Yadav, R.: Earthquake Moment Tensor Inversion Using 3D Velocity Model in the Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6545, 2025.

EGU25-8250 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

Boundary integral spectral formulation for in-plane rupture propagation at non-planar bi-material interfaces 

Samarjeet Kumar and Ranjith Kunnath

The effect of heterogeneity (dissimilar materials) and geometry constituting an interface is an important problem in earthquake source mechanics. These two parameters in the fault interface are responsible for complex rupture propagation and instabilities compared to the homogeneous planar interface. Here, a boundary integral spectral method (BISM) is proposed to capture the in-plane rupture propagation in the non-planar bi-material interface. The conventional traction BISM suffers from the disadvantages of hyper singularity and regularisation is needed (Sato et al., 2020; Romanet et al., 2020; Tada and Yamashita, 1997). So, we are utilising the representation equation arising from the displacement formulation devised by Kostrov (1966). It uses the elastodynamic space-time convolution of Green’s function and traction component at the interface. These displacement boundary integral equations (BIEs) are the inverse equivalent of traction BIEs. When applied to an interface between heterogeneous planar elastic half-spaces, these displacement BIEs have yielded simple and closed-form convolution kernels (Ranjith 2015; Ranjith 2022). Displacement BIEs of this kind have not been utilised to analyse fracture simulation for non-planar bi-material interfaces until now. We assume the small slope assumption (Romanet et al., 2024) in our formulation to get the required displacement BIEs. Also, we expand the displacement BIEs of a non-planar bi-material interface to the leading order to obtain the non-planarity effects. Finally, we present a general spectral boundary integral formulation for a non-planar bi-material interface independent of specific geometry and traction distribution in a small fault slope regime.

How to cite: Kumar, S. and Kunnath, R.: Boundary integral spectral formulation for in-plane rupture propagation at non-planar bi-material interfaces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8250, 2025.

EGU25-9078 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

Continental Crustal Structure Beneath Northern Morocco Deduced from Teleseismic Receiver Function: Constraints into structure variation and compositional properties. 

Hafsa Zakarya, Lahcen El Moudnib, Said Badrane, Martin Zeckra, and Saadia Lharti

In this study, we used the P-wave receiver functions (PRFs) to investigate the crustal structure of northern Morocco, located at the westernmost edge of the Mediterranean, near to the boundary between the African and Eurasian tectonic plates. This region is an integral part of the complex crustal deformation and tectonic system associated with the Alpine orogeny, characterized by concurrent compressional and extensional processes. These dynamics have led to the development of various structural and tectonic models aimed at explaining the area‘s geological evolution. The significant tectonic activity, evident in frequent seismic events, and complex lithospheric deformation, makes it an ideal location for studying crustal variations, lithospheric interactions, and mineralogical contrasts.

To achieve these objectives, we utilized high-quality seismic broadband data from the TopoIberia and Picasso seismic experiments, provided by the Scientific Institute, as well as from the broadband seismic stations operated by the National Center for Scientific and Technical Research (CNRST). The PRFs were extracted by decomposing teleseismic P-waves to isolate the effects of the local crustal structure. The dataset covers a wide range of regional stations, and the RFs provide detailed insights into crustal thickness, density and velocity contrasts, as well as deep discontinuities. Our preliminary results reveal significant variations in Moho depth, ranging from approximately 22.7 km in the eastern part of the region to 51.7 km in the western part. These variations correlate with changes in Vp/Vs and Poisson’s ratios, indicating mineralogical heterogeneity, with compositions spanning from mafic to felsic. These findings provide new constraints for tectonic models and enhance our understanding of the geodynamic processes involved, particularly the interactions between the crust and the upper mantle. This study not only improves our understanding of active tectonics and crustal composition in northern Morocco but also offers valuable insights for refining evolutionary models of the Western Mediterranean within its complex geodynamic context.

Keywords: Teleseismic event, P-wave, Receiver functions, Seismic Network, Vp/Vs ratio, Poisson ratio, Crustal structure, Mineralogical composition, Seismotectonics, Northern Morocco.

How to cite: Zakarya, H., El Moudnib, L., Badrane, S., Zeckra, M., and Lharti, S.: Continental Crustal Structure Beneath Northern Morocco Deduced from Teleseismic Receiver Function: Constraints into structure variation and compositional properties., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9078, 2025.

EGU25-11849 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

A complex deposit sequence from a small, southern Cascadia lake suggests a previously unrecognized subduction earthquake immediately followed a crustal earthquake in 1873 CE 

Ann E. Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Chris Goldfinger, and Alan R. Nelson

Here, we disentangle a complex disturbance deposit sequence attributed to the ~M 7 1873 CE Brookings earthquake from lower Acorn Woman Lake, Oregon, USA, using sedimentological techniques, computed tomography, and micro-X-ray fluorescence. The lower portion of the sequence is derived from schist bedrock and has characteristics similar to a local landslide deposit, but is present in all cores, suggesting that it is the result of high frequency (>5 Hz) ground motions from a crustal earthquake triggered the landslide. In contrast, the upper portion of the sequence is similar to a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia subduction earthquake (two-sigma range of 1680-1780 CE): the base has a higher concentration of light-colored, watershed-sourced silt derived from the delta front followed by a long (2-5 cm) organic tail. The soft lake sediments are more likely to amplify the sustained lower frequency accelerations (<5 Hz) of subduction earthquakes, resulting in subaquatic slope failures of the delta front. The upper portion of the 1873 CE deposit, however, has an even higher concentration of watershed-sourced silt as compared to the 1700 CE deposit, which is suspected to be the result of shaking-induced liquefaction of the lake’s large subaerial delta. The tail of both the 1873 CE and 1700 CE deposits is explained as the result of flocculation that occurred during sustained shaking. A preliminary literature search suggests that flocculation may occur during low frequency (<4-5 Hz) water motion that is sustained for an extended period of time (~minutes). The subduction interpretation of the upper portion of the 1873 CE deposit is supported by the observation of a small local tsunami offshore and the presence of a possible seismogenic turbidite attributed to the 1873 CE Brookings earthquake in southern Oregon sediment cores.

These results are important to regional seismic hazards for several reasons. Southern Cascadia crustal earthquakes, not previously recognized as a threat in southern Oregon, have the potential to cause damage to infrastructure, including the Applegate dam and buildings and other structures at Oregon Caves National Monument. They also identify a previously unrecognized recent southern Cascadia subduction earthquake. Finally, the close temporal relationship between these two types of earthquakes, not observed elsewhere in the downcore record, may be early evidence of the transition of the Walker Lane belt into a transform fault as predicted.

How to cite: Morey, A. E., Shapley, M. D., Gavin, D. G., Goldfinger, C., and Nelson, A. R.: A complex deposit sequence from a small, southern Cascadia lake suggests a previously unrecognized subduction earthquake immediately followed a crustal earthquake in 1873 CE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11849, 2025.

EGU25-14737 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS21

Crack front waves under Mode II rupture dynamics 

Yenike Sharath Chandra Mouli and Ranjith Kunnath

Local heterogeneities on a steadily propagating crack front create persistent disturbance along the crack front. These propagating modes are termed as crack front waves. There have been numerous investigations in the literature of the crack front wave associated with a Mode I crack (for e.g., Ramanathan and Fisher, 1997, Morrissey and Rice, 1998, Norris and Abrahams, 2007, Kolvin and Adda-Bedia, 2024). It has been shown that the Mode I crack front wave travels with a speed slightly less than the Rayleigh wave. However, similar investigation of the Mode II rupture has got minimal attention. Although, Willis (2004) demonstrated that for a Poisson solid, Mode II crack front waves do not exist for crack speeds less than 0.715, explicit results on the speed of the crack front waves, when they exist, have not been reported in the literature. The focus of the present work is on a numerical investigation using a recently developed spectral boundary integral equation method (Gupta and Ranjith, 2024) to obtain the speed of the Mode II crack front waves. Further, the perturbation formulae for Mode II crack, developed by Movchan and Willis (1995) are exploited to validate the numerical results on the crack front wave speeds.

How to cite: Mouli, Y. S. C. and Kunnath, R.: Crack front waves under Mode II rupture dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14737, 2025.

EGU25-16647 | Posters virtual | VPS21

Characterization of selected “rock” reference stations of the Hellenic Accelerometer Network (HAN) 

Nikos Theodoulidis, fabrice Hollender, Pauline Rischette, Margaux Buscetti, Isabelle Douste-bacque, Ioannis Grendas, and Zafeiria Roumelioti

In Greece, almost all accelerometer stations provided accelerometer recordings, more than 400 in total, are characterized by inferred Vs30 values based on combination of surface geology and slope proxy (Stewart et al. 2014). However, only about 15% of them have been characterized by in-situ geophysical and geotechnical methods (invasive or/and non-invasive) were performed at a distance less than 100m from the station. In addition, regarding reference rock stations where shear wave velocity Vs30 is equal or greater than 800m/sec (engineering bedrock), only five (5) of them have been characterized todate, with respective values ranging between 800Vs301183m/s. It is evident that measured site characterization parameters of accelerometer stations in Greece is far from a desired goal, especially regarding those on rock reference sites. In this study multiple/combined non-invasive passive and active seismic techniques are applied in six (6) accelerometer stations throughout Greece, to improve earthquake site characterization metadat of the national accelerometer network, focusing on stations placed on geologic rock conditions. The Vsz (S-wave) and Vpz (P-wave) profiles and thereby Vs30 site class according to the Eurocode-8 are determined. In addition, to form a holistic picture of the site’s characterization, surface geology and topographic properties are provided for the investigated stations. Results of this study aim at contributing on improving site characterization parameters estimated by the Generalized Inversion Technique (source, path, site), as well as in defining Ground Motion Models for rock site conditions.

How to cite: Theodoulidis, N., Hollender, F., Rischette, P., Buscetti, M., Douste-bacque, I., Grendas, I., and Roumelioti, Z.: Characterization of selected “rock” reference stations of the Hellenic Accelerometer Network (HAN), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16647, 2025.

Ambient noise surface wave imaging has become a powerful tool for mapping subsurface velocity structures. Recent advancements in seismology, including the widespread deployment of high-density arrays such as nodal seismometers and Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) systems, have facilitated the use of subarray-based methods for surface wave dispersion data extraction, such as phase-shift, F-K, and F-J methods. Alternatively, dispersion data can also be derived from two-station approaches, such as the FTAN method. However, integrating dispersion data extracted from subarrays and two-station methods remains challenging. In this study, we propose a joint inversion framework that combines these two types of surface wave dispersion data to achieve improved constraints on subsurface structures. We demonstrate its accuracy and practical applicability by conducting numerical experiments and applying the method to field data. The proposed approach introduces intrinsic spatial smoothing constraints. It effectively integrates subarray and two-station dispersion measurements, resulting in better imaging of subsurface shear-wave velocity structures compared to using either dataset alone. The versatility and potential of this method highlight its promising applications in a wide range of geophysical scenarios.

How to cite: Luo, S.: Joint inversion of surface wave dispersion data derived from subarrays and two-station methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20181, 2025.

EGU25-941 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Structure, metamorphism and geochronology of Archean Sargur Schist Belt, southern India 

Madhusmita Swain and Sukumari Rekha

The Sargur Schist Belt (SSB), the oldest supracrustal greenstone belt, present in the south-eastern part of the Western Dharwar Craton (WDC), is a ~ 320 km long N-S to NNE-SSW trending discontinuous belts that occurs as patches and pockets within the granitic‒gneissic complex. The SSB is mainly composed of metamafic, metaultramafic, metapelite, banded magnetite quartzite, micaceous quartzite, pyroxene granulite, amphibolite, hornblende-biotite schist/gneiss, etc. The schistose belt has undergone at least five deformations in which the last three are very prominent. The N-S trending high strain zones with S4 mylonitic foliation were produced during the EDC-WDC accretion (D4 deformation). The D5 deformation (developed due to the accretion of the WDC to Southern Granulite Terrane (SGT) along the Moyar/Bavali Shear Zone (BSZ)) developed broad open folds/warps in the N-S trend of the SSB (as well as WDC) with E-W trending axial planes. On a regional scale, the D3 fold axes curve into the WNW-striking BSZ (D5 deformation), a steeply dipping transpressional shear zone with dextral kinematics.

The estimated metamorphic P-T conditions of 440-585 °C and 6.0-9.5 kbar in metapelites from north to south and 640-770 °C and 7-10 kbar in granulites present in south only. The grade of metamorphism varies from greenschist facies in the north to upper amphibolite to granulite facies in the south. The metapelite and pyroxene granulite shows a loading and slow cooling path. The top to the north movement along the BSZ thrusted the high-grade metapelites, mafic-ultramafic rocks and granulite facies rocks over the WDC lithologies. The higher grade of metamorphism along the southern part as compared to the rest of the WDC is due to its location close to the WDC-SGT accretion zone. The zircons from the metapelitic schist provided older age population ranging between 3.3-3.2, 3.1-3.0 Ga followed by 2.9-2.7 Ga and 2.55-2.4 Ga, whereas the granulites (2.5 and 2.4 Ga) and foliated granites (2.6 Ga) yielded only the younger age populations. However, the monazites in schistose rocks located along the northern part recorded the oldest ages up to 2.7 Ga followed by 2.4 and 2.2-2.1 Ga ages. The monazites from foliated granites, irrespective of their location, provided ages of 2.53, 2.36 and 2.24 Ga. However, the monazites in schists and granulites from the southern part provided younger ages of 0.77, 0.67, 0.53 Ga. The prominent 0.84, 0.76 and 0.62 Ga monazite ages obtained from the metapelites close to the BSZ suggests that the accretion along the BSZ initiated in Mid-Neoproterozoic and continued till Early-Paleozoic. 

How to cite: Swain, M. and Rekha, S.: Structure, metamorphism and geochronology of Archean Sargur Schist Belt, southern India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-941, 2025.

EGU25-964 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Mantle Deformation Pattern Beneath Central Indian Tectonic Zone: A Seismic Anisotropy Study in Satpura Gondwana Basin and Surrounding Areas 

Nitarani Bishoyi, Ashwani Kant Tiwari, and Arun Kumar Dubey

This study analyses shear wave splitting measurements for core-refracted SKS and SKKS phases using data from nine strategically positioned seismic stations operated between 2023 to 2024 in the Central Indian Tectonic Zone (CITZ). The CITZ was formed during the mesoproterozoic orogeny in central India, resulting from the collision of the northern Bundelkhand Craton with a jumble of South Indian cratons (Dharwar, Bastar and Singhbhum Cratons). Understanding seismic anisotropy in this region is essential for elucidating mantle deformation patterns, which provides vital insights into geodynamic processes, lithospheric interactions, and ongoing tectonic activities shaping the CITZ. We employed both rotation-correlation and transverse energy minimisation techniques to determine the shear wave splitting parameters, namely the fast polarization directions (FPDs) and splitting delay times (δt). A total of 104 high-quality splitting measurements and 37 null measurements were obtained from 85 earthquakes (M ≥ 5.5) within epicentral distances of 84°-145° for SKS phases and 84°-180° for SKKS phases. The averaged δts at each seismic station ranges from 0.8 to 1.3 seconds, demonstrating significant anisotropy and heterogeneity in the upper mantle under the studied region. Our observations predominantly reveal NE-SW FPDs throughout the majority of stations, which correlate with the Absolute Plate Motion (APM) of the Indian plate. The discrepancies between FPDs and APM direction at some stations suggest the presence of fossilised anisotropic fabrics resulting from prior subduction events during mesoproterozoic. The smaller δt (0.8 sec) at the seismic station in the Pachmarhi region may be attributed to the significant magmatism during the cretaceous period. Null measurements, in conjunction with splitting measurements, suggest that the stations may be located in a region characterized by multi-layered or complex anisotropy. Our observations indicate that the mantle flow beneath the CITZ is influenced by the contemporary APM direction of the Indian plate as well as lithospheric frozen anisotropy.

How to cite: Bishoyi, N., Tiwari, A. K., and Dubey, A. K.: Mantle Deformation Pattern Beneath Central Indian Tectonic Zone: A Seismic Anisotropy Study in Satpura Gondwana Basin and Surrounding Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-964, 2025.

EGU25-1988 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Apatite compositional constraints on the magmatic to hydrothermal evolution of lamproites from Raniganj Basin, eastern India 

Jaspreet Saini, Suresh C. Patel, and Gurmeet Kaur

A mineralogical study of early Cretaceous lamproite sill intrusions from the Raniganj Gondwana sedimentary basin in eastern India shows that apatite occurs as both phenocrystic and groundmass phase. Based on texture and compositional zoning patterns of apatite in lamproites from the Rajpura and Ramnagore collieries, three paragenetic stages of apatite are identified. Early-magmatic apatite (Ap-I), which forms the core of zoned grains, is Sr-rich–LREE-poor fluorapatite. This apatite underwent resorption prior to the growth of a second generation of magmatic fluorapatite (Ap-II). In Rajpura, Ap-II overgrowth rim is richer in Sr and LREE compared to Ap-I core. The increase in LREE is explained by the substitutions: (Na,K)+ + ∑LREE3+ = 2Ca2+, and [2∑LREE3+ + ₶ = 3Ca2+]. Ramnagore Ap-II overgrowth rim is oscillatory-zoned with fluctuations in Sr and LREE, which likely resulted from slow rate of diffusion of these elements relative to fast growth of crystals. Apatite of the third generation (Ap-III) forms the outermost rim of zoned grains and is marked by enrichment in Na, K and Ba. The substitutional schemes which explain the increase in Na and K from Ap-II to Ap-III are: (Na,K)+ + CO32– = Sr2+ + PO43– and [(Na,K)+ + (F,OH) = ₶ + ₶]. The role of carbonate in the former substitution is supported by high content of stoichiometrically calculated carbon (0.21–0.30 apfu) in Ap-III. The formation of Ap-III is attributed to metasomatic alteration of Ap-II by CO2-bearing hydrothermal fluid and is associated with sodic metasomatism. Microporous texture has developed in Rajpura Ap-III which suggests a dissolution–reprecipitation mechanism for its development. This study demonstrates that compositional variations among different generations of apatite provide a meaningful record of melt evolution from early magmatic to magmatic-hydrothermal stages.

How to cite: Saini, J., Patel, S. C., and Kaur, G.: Apatite compositional constraints on the magmatic to hydrothermal evolution of lamproites from Raniganj Basin, eastern India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1988, 2025.

EGU25-7536 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Water-fluxed melting and back-arc extension in the continental arc: Evidence from I-type granites, adakitic rocks and high-Nb mafic rocks at the western margin of the Yangtze Block, South China 

Bin Huang, Wei Wang, JunHong Zhao, Nimat Ullah Khattak, Rui Li, Si-Fang Huang, Gui-Mei Lu, Li Sun, Er-Kun Xue, Yang Zhang, and Xin-Yu Cai

The Neoproterozoic western margin of the Yangtze Block in South China records significant continental crust-forming and modification processes through two distinct magmatic episodes. Using integrated geochemical and petrological approaches, we demonstrate that the 811-802 Ma Yuanmou Complex comprises alkaline high-Nb mafic rocks characterized by high Nb (15.7-41.9 ppm), TiO2 (2.13-3.39 wt%) contents and positive εNd(t) (+4.8 to +6.9), coupled with adakitic granodiorites showing high Sr/Y (17.4-49.0), (La/Yb)N (16.3-52.6) and consistent bulk rock εNd(t) (-0.5 to -1.5) and zircon εHf(t) (0.0 to +2.3). The younger 750 Ma Jinping I-type granites exhibit high SiO2 (71.2-73.5 wt%) and alkalis contents, enriched LREE patterns and depleted isotopic signatures (εNd(t): -0.4 to +1.3; zircon εHf(t): +4.83 to +8.37). Thermodynamic modeling reveals how crustal water content-controlled magma generation at different depths - low water-fluxed melting (2.0-3.5 wt% H2O) produced I-type granites at medium pressure (6-9 kbar), while deeper settings with higher water content generated adakitic melts. The high-Nb mafic rocks in the Yuanmou Complex, derived from metasomatized mantle wedge, provide evidence for crustal-mantle interaction during back-arc extension. These coupled magmatic processes demonstrate how water content variations with depth influenced continental crust formation and evolution in arc settings.

How to cite: Huang, B., Wang, W., Zhao, J., Khattak, N. U., Li, R., Huang, S.-F., Lu, G.-M., Sun, L., Xue, E.-K., Zhang, Y., and Cai, X.-Y.: Water-fluxed melting and back-arc extension in the continental arc: Evidence from I-type granites, adakitic rocks and high-Nb mafic rocks at the western margin of the Yangtze Block, South China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7536, 2025.

EGU25-8654 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Two different mantle types as evidenced from a geochemical and petrological study of peridotites from the Ivrea-Verbano Zone  

Alessandra Correale, Pierangelo Romano, Ilenia Arienzo, Antonio Caracausi, Gabriele Carnevale, Eugenio Fazio, Angela Mormone, Antonio Paonita, Monica Piochi, Silvio Giuseppe Rotolo, and Michele Zucali

A petrological and geochemical study was performed on 5 selected samples of peridotites from two different sites (Finero and Balmuccia) outcropping in the Ivrea Verbano Zone, with the aim to investigate the processes occurring in the deep lithosphere and the possible interaction with the lower crust.

The peridotites from Finero area fall in the harzuburgite (FIN1, FIN3, FIN4) field whereas those from Balmuccia are lherzolithes (BALM1) and werlhites (BALM4), highlighting respectively the presence of a more fertile and primordial mantle for two sites.

The rocks from Finero are featured by higher MgO (42-45.7 wt%) and lower Al2O3 (0.6-2.4 wt%), CaO (0.42-2.09 wt%) content with respect to Balmuccia (MgO: 39.6 wt%, Al2O3: 2.9 wt%; CaO: 2.8 wt%) as a consequence of their harzburgitic nature. They display an enrichment in large-ion lithophile elements (LILE), light rare earth elements (LREE, LaN/YbN:13.6) and depletion in high field strength elements (HFSE) differently from the Balmuccia peridotites, which are featured by a light depletion in LREE (LaN/YbN:0.4-0.8) and nearly flat HREE pattern. The LILE and LREE enrichment measured in the Finero peridotites could suggest that a portion of the mantle below Ivrea Verbano area was influenced by metasomatic fluids/melts. The BALM4 sample is characterized by anomalously low values of MgO (16.05 wt%) and high values of Al2O3 (16.3 wt%) and CaO (14.5 wt%), reflecting the high modal proportion of spinel.

Even the higher Sr (86Sr/87Sr= 0.70736-0.72571) and lower Nd (143Nd/144Nd=0.51236) isotopic values measured in selected mineral phases from Finero with respect to Balmuccia (86Sr/87Sr= 0.70268-0.70644; 143Nd/144Nd=0.51334) allow to speculate a relation with crustal fluids in the Finero mantle.

The composition of fluid inclusions entrapped in olivine and pyroxene crystals from Finero peridotites evidenced CH4 and CH4-N2 associated with antigorite and magnesite whereas prevalent CH4 associated with antigorite, magnesite and graphite was measured in the rocks from Balmuccia area. The origin of CH4 could be related to synthesis via reduction of CO2 by H2 from internal/external serpentine to minerals or re-speciation of initial CO2-H2O fluids associated to graphite precipitation during cooling by obduction after orogeny; differently, the CH4-N2 fluids could be introduced by past subduction-related processes.

The isotopic helium (3He/4He ratio) varies between 0.08 and 0.17 Ra in the Finero peridotites and among 0.18 and 0.48 Ra in the Balmuccia ones, evidencing an isotopic difference between the two sites that cannot be explained by 4He radiogenic production. Differently, the Finero-Balmuccia variability could reflect the helium signature recorded in deep by subduction events and confirm the previous petrologic and geochemical evidences in favour of a metasomatised mantle by crustal fluids in the Finero area with respect to a more primordial in the Balmuccia one.

How to cite: Correale, A., Romano, P., Arienzo, I., Caracausi, A., Carnevale, G., Fazio, E., Mormone, A., Paonita, A., Piochi, M., Rotolo, S. G., and Zucali, M.: Two different mantle types as evidenced from a geochemical and petrological study of peridotites from the Ivrea-Verbano Zone , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8654, 2025.

EGU25-8768 | Posters virtual | VPS22

A Method for Measuring Viscosity of Silicate Melts Using Hot Stage Microscopy (HSM) 

Daniele Giordano, Chiara Molinari, Michele Dondi, Sonia Conte, and Chiara Zanelli

The viscosity of silicate melts is one of the most important physical parameter governing natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, as well as manufacturing processes in the ceramic and glass industries. The traditional techniques for measuring viscosity are commonly time- and energy-consuming, they require equilibrium conditions, and are mostly limited to reduced viscosity intervals. Reducing testing time is a critical target for both academic and productive purposes. In order to calibrate an efficient tool capable of both reducing testing time and expand the range of viscosity determination, we used the hot stage microscope (HSM) technique. Specimens (pressed powders) of natural samples, previously measured employing a combination of concentric cylinder and the micropenetration dilatometric techniques, were heated at a rate of 10°C/min until melting. Characteristic shapes (Start sintering, End sintering, Softening, Sphere, Hemisphere, and Melting) were observed at characteristic temperatures (CT); then their viscosities were calculated from their known viscosity-temperature (Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann, VFT) relationships. The observed shapes result from a combined effect of viscosity and surface tension, allowing viscosity values at each CT to linearly scale with surface tension. Viscosity was calibrated by introducing correction factors based on glass chemistry. This approach provides two independent data sets – CT (from HSM) and the corresponding characteristic viscosity (from glass composition) – which can be used to calculate the VFT parameters. The comparison between calculated and experimental viscosity shows good correspondence, which significantly improved previous attempts using only HSM data. These results also highlight the potential of this non-contact technique for evaluating the effects of crystalline particles and porosity on the rheological properties of alumosilicate melts.

Contribution of PNRR M4C2 - PRIN 2022PXHTXM - STONE project, funded from EU within the Next generation EU program. CUP: D53D23004840006

How to cite: Giordano, D., Molinari, C., Dondi, M., Conte, S., and Zanelli, C.: A Method for Measuring Viscosity of Silicate Melts Using Hot Stage Microscopy (HSM), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8768, 2025.

EGU25-8978 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Characterization of Residual Glass Evolution from Vitrified  Ceramics: Insights from Raman Spectroscopy and DSC into Viscous and Elastic Properties 

Daniele Giordano, Michele Cassetta, Sonia Conte, Chiara Zanelli, Chiara Molinari, Michele Dondi, and Sonia La Felice

Four multicomponent metaluminous glasses were designed to investigate the evolution of residual glass-ceramics comprising glass and crystals. Samples were obtained from melting of quartz-feldspars mixes (with varying Na/K ratio and silica content) further fast sintered at temperatures of 1200-1260°C. Using an integrated approach combining high- and low-frequency Raman spectroscopy and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), we characterized the viscous and elastic response of the residual glass and its role in the mechanical properties of the corresponding ceramic products.

High-frequency Raman spectroscopy allows for the analysis of Qn species, which represent the polymerization state of the glass network. Q0, Q¹, Q², Q³, and Q4 correspond to isolated tetrahedra, short chains, branched structures, and fully polymerized networks, respectively. This provides insights into how chemical composition affects the microscopic structure of the residual glass. Simultaneously, low-frequency Raman spectroscopy probes the boson peak, a signature of collective vibrational modes in the glass, which is directly linked to its elastic properties. By coupling the boson peak analysis with the elastic medium scaling law, we determine the vibrational density of states and shear modulus, key parameters for understanding the mechanical behavior of the system.

DSC measurements further enable the determination of critical thermal transitions of the glass, including the glass transition temperature, crystallization, and relaxation processes, which are essential for characterizing the viscous behavior of the residual glass. The integration of these techniques provides a comprehensive understanding of the role of residual glass in stress transfer and mechanical properties control within multicomponent ceramics.

This is a first insight on the characteristics of technologically relevant glasses for the production of porcelain and vitrified ceramic tiles. The approach here followed actually allows appreciating the effect of variations in the Na/K ratio and silica content that mirror what can occur in the industrial production. This paves the way for application in more complex materials and real industrial conditions.

Contribution of PNRR M4C2 - PRIN 2022PXHTXM - STONE project, funded from EU within the Next generation EU program. CUP: D53D23004840006

How to cite: Giordano, D., Cassetta, M., Conte, S., Zanelli, C., Molinari, C., Dondi, M., and La Felice, S.: Characterization of Residual Glass Evolution from Vitrified  Ceramics: Insights from Raman Spectroscopy and DSC into Viscous and Elastic Properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8978, 2025.

EGU25-9306 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Geochemical characterisation of Permian lower continental crust: case study from Ivrea-Verbano Zone (NW Italy) 

Gabriele Carnevale, Antonio Caracausi, Alessandra Correale, Eugenio Fazio, Antonio Paonita, Pierangelo Romano, and Michele Zucali

Investigating the main geochemical characteristics of the lower continental crust is essential to understand its formation and evolution, identifying crustal differentiation processes and possible crust-mantle interactions. We performed bulk rock (major and trace elements), noble gases isotopes (He, Ne, Ar), and fluid inclusions (Raman spectroscopy) analyses on metamorphic rocks from Ivrea-Verbano Zone (Southern Italian Alps). Specifically, we studied various lithologies (metapelite, metagabbro, mafic and felsic granulite, amphibolite, and gneiss) to analyse the continuous metamorphic gradient from amphibolite- to granulite-facies.

Bulk rock analyses confirm the mafic nature of the protoliths for metagabbros (MgO = 5.36-10.25 wt.%), mafic granulites (MgO = 8.32-25.80 wt.%) and amphibolite (MgO = 7.98 wt.%) plotting in the metabasite field of the ACF chemographic diagram. Felsic granulite and sillimanite-gneiss fall within metamorphosed quartz-feldspar rocks, except for metapelite, which approaches the metacarbonate field, due to the presence of secondary carbonates. Metagabbros, mafic granulites and amphibolite show low REE concentrations (∑REE between 3 and 25 ppm) and high Cr and Ni contents (up to 1865 and 265 ppm respectively in mafic granulite), reflecting the mafic/ultramafic nature of the protoliths, whereas felsic granulite, sillimanite-gneiss and metapelite show higher REE contents (∑REE between 48 and 197 ppm).

3He/4He isotope ratios in metamorphosed quartz-feldspar rocks (0.06-0.30 Ra) and metabasites (0.15 and 0.45 Ra) are significantly radiogenic, although the metabasites show slightly higher values, corroborating a more primitive component in their source. Most samples plot near the air component in the 20Ne/22Ne vs 21Ne/22Ne diagram, except for mafic granulites which show a crustal-air mixing trend. As regards the Ar isotope ratios, all samples appear rich in radiogenic component (40Ar/36Ar up to 2645 in metagabbros).

Raman spectroscopy analyses on fluid inclusions in orthopyroxene from mafic granulites show the coexistence of talc, graphite and magnesite with methane, providing direct evidence of a complex history in terms of post-metamorphic reactions and P-T-fO2 conditions.

Our preliminary results show the compositional diversity and evolution of the lower continental crust, highlighting the interplay between mafic and sedimentary sources and the importance of fluid interactions and post-metamorphic processes.

How to cite: Carnevale, G., Caracausi, A., Correale, A., Fazio, E., Paonita, A., Romano, P., and Zucali, M.: Geochemical characterisation of Permian lower continental crust: case study from Ivrea-Verbano Zone (NW Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9306, 2025.

EGU25-9505 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Characterisation of the heterogeneity of vesicular lava rocks from Fogo Volcano (Azores, Portugal) combining conventional laboratory methods with X-ray microtomography 

Maria Luísa Pereira, Nora Cueto, Lucia Pappalardo, Gianmarco Buono, Alessia Falasconi, Mário Moreira, Vittorio Zanon, and Isabel Fernandes

Experimental data on rock physical properties obtained through laboratory methods are enhanced by advanced techniques like X-ray microtomography (µCT) and image analysis. Lava rocks are important geological formations worldwide with varying textures, structures, and physical and mechanical behaviour. This research focuses on the heterogeneity analysis of vesicular lava rocks with intermediate composition from the Fogo Volcano (or Água de Pau Volcano, S. Miguel, Azores, Portugal). The effective porosity of six cubic samples is determined using the buoyancy technique. Ultrasonic wave velocities and capillarity absorption coefficient are obtained along three orthogonal directions using the through-transmission method and a European standard, respectively. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) combined with µCT is determined in three cores from a single cube.

Results demonstrate that pore structure governs water uptake by capillarity and ultrasonic wave velocities. Regardless of the direction, the nonlinear water imbibition reflects a bimodal pore size distribution, confirmed through µCT imaging. The Sharp Front model describes this behaviour as the sum of two separate absorption processes related to larger (28.01-12.96 g/m2·s0.5) and finer (0.45-1.73 g/m2·s0.5) pores. Capillary-connected porosity (5.07%) is lower than connected porosity (18.5–20.1%) since gravitational fluid transport dominates for large pores (>1 mm). P-wave velocities (2802–3208 m/s) show minor dependence on pore shape, while Vp/Vs ratios (1.76 ± 0.25), dynamic Young’s modulus (16.78 ± 3.20 GPa), and Poisson’s ratio (0.23 ± 0.11) reflect vesicular textures.

µCT-based image analysis enables porosity quantification, revealing that effective porosity includes vesicles and pore-linking fractures. Permeability (0.7–6.6 mD) depends on tortuosity, which reduces fluid percolation despite higher connected porosity.

UCS (15.5-36 MPa) variations depend on pore size, orientation relative to the loading direction, and connected porosity, with minor influence from pore shape. µCT imaging reveals failure through tensile splitting, with fractures propagating from pore edges in all cores. The weakest specimen has more plagioclase phenocrysts, whose borders, intragranular cracks, and pores contribute to reduced strength.

These findings underscore the need to consider the heterogeneous pore structure of vesicular lavas when interpreting field measurements or improving volcano stability models. Advanced imaging and computational techniques clarify the role of vesicles and phenocrysts in strength and crack development patterns, providing important insights into the mechanics of lava rocks.

How to cite: Pereira, M. L., Cueto, N., Pappalardo, L., Buono, G., Falasconi, A., Moreira, M., Zanon, V., and Fernandes, I.: Characterisation of the heterogeneity of vesicular lava rocks from Fogo Volcano (Azores, Portugal) combining conventional laboratory methods with X-ray microtomography, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9505, 2025.

EGU25-10890 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Unveiling the geochemistry of fluids in the Central Aeolian Islands (Italy) 

Marco Camarda, Sofia De Gregorio, Marcello Liotta, Roberto M.R. Di Martino, Ygor Oliveri, Mimmo Palano, Antonino Pisciotta, Giuseppe M. Riolo, and Pierangelo Romano

In the last decades, the volcanically active Aeolian Islands have been the focus of numerous geochemical investigations and monitoring activities, primarily focused on the islands of Vulcano, Stromboli and Panarea. However, relatively few studies have explored the geochemical characteristics of other islands, despite evidence of hydrothermal activity. Salina, for instance, hosts a shallow, cold, low-salinity aquifer that overlies a deeper warmer aquifer, with highly saline water. Additional noteworthy features include hydrothermal deposits on the seafloor and offshore submarine gas emissions. Similarly, Lipari hosts a thermal aquifer (e.g. Terme di San Calogero) and exhibits significant hydrothermal emissions along its western coast, particularly in areas of Valle del Fuardo and Caolino quarry. In this study we conducted detailed geochemical surveys on Lipari and Salina to investigate the origins of the fluids and their relationship with the geodynamic framework. The research is part of the Project CAVEAT (Central-southern Aeolian islands: Volcanism and tEArIng in the Tyrrhenian subduction system), which aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current geodynamics in the southern Tyrrhenian region, focusing on the interaction between volcanism and tectonic activity within the Tyrrhenian subduction system.

On Salina and Lipari islands, soil CO2 flux measurement campaigns were conducted to examine the spatial distribution of soil CO2 emissions. Thermal surveys using an Unmanned Aircraft System were conducted over fumarolic areas to detect thermal anomalies associated with zones of preferential fluid emissions. These measurements helped define preferential pathways for fluid migration and identify active tectonic structures associated with areas of elevated soil CO2 emissions. At selected sites, isotopic composition of gas was analyzed to infer the gas origins. On Lipari, soil CO2 emission anomalies revealed a NNW-SSE alignment consistent with the area’s primary tectonic structures. Isotopic analysis confirmed a contribution of deep-origin fluids to these emissions. Thermal (up to 45.8 °C) and cold waters from Salina and Lipari were sampled and analyzed for their chemical and isotopic composition, as well as for dissolved gases. The isotopic composition of the water clearly indicates that the sampled groundwater originates from a mix of meteoric water and seawater, with varying degrees of mixing at each site. Gases dissolved in water exhibit an atmospheric component with a high content of CO2 in the most brackish samples. At Salina, the isotopic composition of dissolved helium reflects a mantle contribution. Collectively, the findings emphasize the significant influence of mantle and deep-origin origin fluids in shaping the geochemistry of both islands. They further highlight the critical role of geodynamic and tectonic processes in governing fluid emissions across the two islands.

How to cite: Camarda, M., De Gregorio, S., Liotta, M., Di Martino, R. M. R., Oliveri, Y., Palano, M., Pisciotta, A., Riolo, G. M., and Romano, P.: Unveiling the geochemistry of fluids in the Central Aeolian Islands (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10890, 2025.

EGU25-11736 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Poisson’s ratio structure and three-dimensional P wave velocity structure beneath the profile across the Gakkel ridge 85°E axis 

Xiongwei Niu, Jiabiao Li, Wenrui Yang, Jiahui Yu, Weiwei Ding, and Tao Zhang

During active-source 2D marine ocean bottom seismic exploration, significant deviations of shot lines from the designed survey lines can introduce errors in 2D structural models, particularly in areas with rough bathymetry, such as mid-ocean ridges. By employing 3D tomography, it is possible to construct a three-dimensional model of the survey area that incorporates the actual shot locations and Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) positions, leading to more accurate velocity structure models.

In 2021, the Joint Arctic Scientific Mid-Ocean Ridge Insight Expedition (JASMInE) acquired high-quality OBS data from the Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Ocean. However, due to the presence of dense floating ice, significant offsets occurred between the shot lines and the OBS station profiles. Consequently, applying a 3D tomography-based modeling approach is essential for imaging the velocity structure in this region.

This study utilized the JIVE3D software to develop a 3D P-wave velocity model along a profile perpendicular to the 85°E spreading axis of the Gakkel Ridge, based on high-resolution multibeam bathymetry data. Compared to the velocity structure derived from 2D modeling, the P-wave velocities beneath the spreading axis are found to be lower in the 3D model, while lateral velocity variations in the upper oceanic crust are more pronounced away from the spreading axis. Despite these differences, the overall velocity structure and crustal thickness trends are consistent, indirectly validating the reliability of the 2D structural model.

Based on this 2D P-wave model, with data of 1257 S-wave arrival times picked from 9 OBS stations along the profile perpendicular to the mid-ocean ridge, using a forward modeling trial-and-error approach, a preliminary Poisson’s ratio structure beneath the profile was obtained. The Poisson’s ratio in Layer 2 of the oceanic crust ranges from 0.36 to 0.40, with relatively lower values beneath the spreading axis. In Layer 3, the Poisson’s ratio varies from 0.28 to 0.38. The relatively higher Poisson’s ratio values may indicate the presence of abundant fractures or fluids within the oceanic crust in this region.

How to cite: Niu, X., Li, J., Yang, W., Yu, J., Ding, W., and Zhang, T.: Poisson’s ratio structure and three-dimensional P wave velocity structure beneath the profile across the Gakkel ridge 85°E axis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11736, 2025.

EGU25-11968 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Investigations on the shallow submarine CO2 emissions around the Island of Vulcano (Italy) 

Sofia De Gregorio, Marco Camarda, Santo Cappuzzo, Vincenzo Francofonte, and Antonino Pisciotta

Natural CO2 emissions play a crucial role in understanding global CO2 budget estimates. Consequently, numerous studies have focused on CO2 emissions across various regions worldwide. However, the majority of these investigations have concentrated on terrestrial CO2 emissions, with relatively fewer studies exploring submarine CO2 emissions. Moreover, almost all the studies have focused on areas with significant hydrothermal activity, particularly those along Mid-Oceanic Ridges, while shallow-water hydrothermal vents have received comparatively little attention. Furthermore, diffuse submarine gas emissions, lacking or with little visible surface evidence, remain largely unexplored. This study investigates the CO2 emissions in the shallow submarine environment around the coast of the Island of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) by measuring dissolved CO2 concentrations. Vulcano, has been characterized by an intense hydrothermal activity since its last eruption from La Fossa cone (1888-­1890). Vulcano features several fumarole fields, including one on the northern crater rim of La Fossa cone and another near the sea in the northeastern sector. Additionally, significant soil CO2 degassing occurs across the volcanic edifice. In the Vulcano Porto area, numerous thermal wells discharge fluids with temperatures reaching up to 80 °C. Submarine emission areas are visible, at shallow depths, close to the beaches in the southern and northeastern sectors. Measurements of dissolved CO2 concentrations were conducted along seashores and rocky coastlines and in sites encompassing both visible and non-visible emissions. In the northeastern sector, measurements focused on the area between the Vulcanello peninsula and the northern slopes of the volcanic cone. The northernmost section of this area, extending to the Faraglione cone, is widely recognized in the literature as Baia di Levante (BL), a well-documented site of significant CO₂-dominant hydrothermal fluids discharge, trough submarine vents placed on the seafloor, at shallow depth, near the shoreline. In this area, we performed measurements along the beach at depth of about 50 cm below sea surface. The measured values remain elevated throughout the entire profile, consistently surpassing those of seawater in equilibrium with the atmosphere (ASSW). Concentrations peaked near visible bubbling zones, with concentration values ​​that exceeded the 20%. Moving southward, between the port dock and the crater slopes, measurements were conducted both close to the coastline and approximately 30 meters off the coast. In this area, sporadic bubble emissions from the seafloor were observed and the concentration of dissolved CO2 decreases significantly compared to the BL area. However, the dissolved CO2 concentration remain elevated, above those expected for ASSW. Along the eastern coast, measurements were performed in two selected sites along the rocky coastlines. Anomalous dissolved CO2 concentrations, reaching up to 1400 ppm, were recorded also in these areas. In the southern sector, measurements were taken along Gelso beach. CO2 concentrations were consistently high along the entire beach profile. The results indicate that submarine CO2 emissions are not confined to areas with visible surface evidence, but also occur in areas with minimal or no-visible hydrothermal activity.

How to cite: De Gregorio, S., Camarda, M., Cappuzzo, S., Francofonte, V., and Pisciotta, A.: Investigations on the shallow submarine CO2 emissions around the Island of Vulcano (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11968, 2025.

EGU25-14815 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Playing with Edges: The Influence of Arbitrary Definitions on Hotspot–LLSVP Correlations 

Gabriel Johnston, Shangxin Liu, Alessandro Forte, and Petar Glisovic

Correlating surface hotspot volcanism with sharply defined edges of Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs) is a common yet potentially oversimplified approach in mantle geodynamics. Such direct radial projections ignore the lateral displacement of plume conduits observed in seismic tomographic imaging, which suggests that purely vertical transport through the mantle is not guaranteed. Furthermore, many studies merge the African and Pacific LLSVPs, despite evidence that their correlation with hotspots differs significantly. These oversimplifications can lead to misinterpretations of plume-lithosphere interactions, the interaction between mantle plumes and the ambient ”mantle wind”, and mantle flow dynamics in general. Here, we systematically investigate how varied criteria can alter the inferred hotspot– LLSVP edge relationship. We separately analyze African and Pacific LLSVPs using: multiple tomography models, horizontal-gradient based definitions of edges, different vote-map methodologies, and distinct plume geometry assumptions–from perfectly vertical “spokes” to randomly deflected trajectories. We also apply the Back-and-Forth Nudging (BFN) method applied to time-reversed thermal convection, initialized with a present-day seismic–geodynamic–mineral physics model (Glisovic & Forte, 2016), to provide a geodynamically consistent assessment of the relationship between present-day hotspot locations and their source regions in the deep lower mantle. This independent geodynamic assessment clarifies how arbitrary choices concerning the interpretation of hotspots and LLSVP edges may lead to biased or skewed deep-plume reconstructions. Our results reveal that adjustments in hotspot catalogs, or the decision to combine the two main LLSVPs rather than regard each as dynamically distinct, can yield important differences in the significance attributed to sharply defined LLSVP edges. These findings underscore that commonly cited correlations between hotspot locations and LLSVP boundaries hinge on assumptions that vary considerably across the literature. Recognizing and rigorously defining input parameters–particularly the separate treatment of the African and Pacific LLSVPs and the inclusion of realistic lateral plume deflection–proves essential for robust interpretations of deep Earth structure. This highlights the need for standardized methodologies and careful parameter choices to avoid overstating the importance of LLSVP edges in shaping plume pathways.

How to cite: Johnston, G., Liu, S., Forte, A., and Glisovic, P.: Playing with Edges: The Influence of Arbitrary Definitions on Hotspot–LLSVP Correlations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14815, 2025.

EGU25-17683 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Impact of Cooling Rate on Rheology and Emplacement Dynamics of Basaltic Lava Flows: Insights from the 2023-2024 Sundhnúksgígar Eruption (Iceland) 

Fabrizio Di Fiore, Alessandro Vona, Danilo Di Genova, Alberto Caracciolo, Alessio Pontesilli, Laura Calabro', Gabriele Giuliani, Silvio Mollo, Dmitry Bondar, Manuela Nazzari, Claudia Romano, and Piergiorgio Scarlato

The 2023-2024 eruptions at Sundhnúksgígar in Iceland produced tholeiitic basaltic lavas that traveled at high velocities, affecting vast areas. In this context, disequilibrium crystallization can play a fundamental role in modulating the lava flow dynamic and inundation capacity. To investigate this phenomenon, we performed a comprehensive rheological characterization of the Sundhnúksgígar basaltic liquid and crystal-bearing suspension under both disequilibrium and near-equilibrium conditions. Compared to other basalts erupted worldwide, our results reveal unique features of the Sundhnúksgígar melt: i) exceptionally low solidification rates and ii) the ability to crystallize even at the highest cooling rates applied during the experiments. These characteristics enhance the efficiency of external crust formation, minimizing heat loss from the inner portion of the lava flow, which consequently experiences slower cooling rates. As a result, the lava is able to flow for longer times and travel greater distances than other basaltic flows. Our findings underscore the critical influence of disequilibrium crystallization on the rheological evolution and emplacement behavior of basaltic lavas, with implications for hazard assessment and risk mitigation during effusive eruptions.

How to cite: Di Fiore, F., Vona, A., Di Genova, D., Caracciolo, A., Pontesilli, A., Calabro', L., Giuliani, G., Mollo, S., Bondar, D., Nazzari, M., Romano, C., and Scarlato, P.: Impact of Cooling Rate on Rheology and Emplacement Dynamics of Basaltic Lava Flows: Insights from the 2023-2024 Sundhnúksgígar Eruption (Iceland), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17683, 2025.

EGU25-17921 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Interrelationship between the electrical and elastic properties using effective medium theories 

Khasi Raju and Agata Siniscalchi

This study focuses on characterizing seismogenic zones by establishing a interrelationship between electrical and elastic properties using Effective Medium Theories (EMTs). The seismogenic zones exhibit complex geological and geophysical signatures that can be explored through joint analysis of electrical resistivity and elastic moduli. The research applies EMTs such as Self-Consistent Approximation (SCA), Generalized Effective Medium (GEM), and Differential Effective Medium (DEM) to model the physical properties of rocks under varying conditions of pressure, porosity, and fluid saturation.

The study compares theoretical predictions with observed data to understand how resistivity, influenced by fluid connectivity and composition, correlates with elastic properties, which are sensitive to stress and fracture networks. The study can reveal critical insights into the mechanical and fluid characteristics of seismogenic zones. By integrating theoretical models with available geophysical data, this work provides a framework for analyzing the interdependence of electrical and elastic properties in seismogenic regions. The findings contribute to advancing the understanding of fluid dynamics, and rock deformation in seismogenic zones, offering a valuable tool for seismic hazard assessment and monitoring.

How to cite: Raju, K. and Siniscalchi, A.: Interrelationship between the electrical and elastic properties using effective medium theories, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17921, 2025.

EGU25-20022 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22

Etna volcano monitoring by remote sensing systems 

Francesco Romeo, Luigi Mereu, Michele Prestifilippo, and Simona Scollo

The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) is in charge to monitor Mt. Etna (Catania, Italy), one of the most active volcanoes in Europe. Its activity is characterised by mild strombolian to powerful lava fountains. Monitoring active volcanoes is fundamental to reduce the volcanic hazard, in particular in dense populated areas as it is the case for the Mt. Etna [1]. The combination of different remote sensing systems can improve the analysis of Etna volcanic activity and give a more reliable quantification of volcanic source parameters as the Cloud Height, Mass Eruption Rate, Fine ash Mass and Particle Size. Volcanic source parameters are used as input parameters by volcanic ash transport and dispersal model. A more accurate estimate of these parameters reduces the uncertainty of numerical dispersal model simulations. The data used for this study come from different sources: The VIVOTEK IP8172P is a visible camera located in Catania. The second is a Thermal-Infrared camera located in Nicolosi that collects images (320 x 240 pixels) at few meters resolution [2] [3]. The third instrument is a X-band (9.6 GHz) polarimetric weather radar located nearby the International Airport Vincenzo Bellini (Catania). The fourth is the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager onboard the Meteosat Second Generation Geostationary Satellite [4]. Through the use of complementary remote sensing systems, we aim at improving our understating of explosive phenomena at Etna volcano.

[1] Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S., & Puempel, H. (2012). Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first iavcei-wmo workshop on ash dispersal forecast and civil aviation. Bulletin of volcanology, 74 , 1–10.

[2] S. Scollo, M. Prestifilippo, E. Pecora, S. Corradini, L. Merucci, G. Spata, et al., "Eruption column height estimation of the 2011–2013 Etna lava fountains", Ann. Geophys., pp. 57, 2014.

 [3] S. Calvari, G.G. Salerno, L. Spampinato, M. Gouhier, A. La Spina, E. Pecora, et al., "An unloading foam model to constrain Etna’s 11–13 January 2011 lava fountaining episode", J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, vol. 116, pp. B11207, 2011.

[4] S. Scollo, M. Prestifilippo, C. Bonadonna, R. Cioni, S. Corradini, W. Degruyter, et al., "Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna Italy", Remote Sens., vol. 11, pp. 2987, 2019.

How to cite: Romeo, F., Mereu, L., Prestifilippo, M., and Scollo, S.: Etna volcano monitoring by remote sensing systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20022, 2025.

EGU25-20055 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Magmatic processes driving the 1970 eruption on Deception Island, (Antarctica) 

Helena Albert, Jorge L. Ruiz, Joaquín Hopfenblatt, Dario Pedrazzi, Adelina Geyer, Meritxell Aulinas, Antonio Polo-Sánchez, Antonio M. Álvarez-Valero, and Oriol Vilanova

Deception Island, the most active volcanic system in the South Shetland Islands (Antarctica), has recorded over 20 explosive monogenetic eruptions in the past two centuries. The island’s most recent eruption in 1970 was one of its most violent, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 3. This event generated a column height of up to 10 km and produced an estimated bulk eruptive volume exceeding 0.1 km³, with tephra fallout recorded over 150 km away on King George Island. To investigate the magmatic processes leading up to this significant eruption, we conducted detailed geochemical and textural analyses of near-vent pyroclastic deposits and distal tephra fall-out layers preserved in Livingston Island’s glaciers. Near-vent deposits include dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) and lithic-rich breccias. Olivine crystals in these deposits exhibit two distinct populations: low-forsterite (Fo65–70 mol.%) and high-forsterite (Fo80–85 mol.%), with similar CaO contents (0.1–0.5 wt.%) but varying NiO concentrations (0–0.4 wt.% in low Fo; 0.02–0.10 wt.% in high Fo). Pyroxene microanalyses also reveal two distinct populations: i) augite-diopside (En45–50, Fs5–25, Wo38–50) and ii) enstatite (En90, Fs10, Wo0). Augite-diopside crystals can be further subdivided based on their Mg# (Mg# = Mg/(Mg+Fe) x 100) and TiO2 contents. The first group shows Mg# values between 80–85 mol.% and TiO2 ranging from 0.5 to 3.0 wt.%, while the second group displays Mg# values of 55–70 mol.% and narrower TiO2 concentrations (0.5–1.25 wt.%). Notably, the enstatite population was not found in distal tephra layers. Plagioclase crystals range in composition from Bytownite to Andesine (An85–40 mol.%). Comparative analyses with distal tephra layers confirm the presence of both olivine populations and overlapping augite-diopside compositions but lack enstatite. Plagioclase compositions show consistency between near-vent and distal deposits. These findings align the 1970 eruption deposits with compositional trends observed in other post-caldera collapse eruptions, shedding light on the island's eruptive history and magmatic evolution.

 

This work has been partially financed by the grant PID2023-151693NA-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.This work is part of the CSIC Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform (PTI) Polar zone Observatory (PTIPOLARCSIC) activities. This research was partially funded by the MINECO VOLCLIMA (CGL2015-72629-EXP) and HYDROCAL (PID2020-114876GB-I00) MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 research project. Sampling was founded by CICYT (ANT91-1270, ANT93-0852 and ANT96-0734) and MICINN grant CTM2011-13578-E.

How to cite: Albert, H., Ruiz, J. L., Hopfenblatt, J., Pedrazzi, D., Geyer, A., Aulinas, M., Polo-Sánchez, A., Álvarez-Valero, A. M., and Vilanova, O.: Magmatic processes driving the 1970 eruption on Deception Island, (Antarctica), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20055, 2025.

EGU25-20387 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Gas hazard assessment at the hydrothermal system of Baia di Levante at Vulcano Island during the 2021-23 unrest of La Fossa crater (Aeolian Islands, Italy) 

Massimo Ranaldi, Maria Luisa Carapezza, Luca Tarchini, Nicola Mauro Pagliuca, Lucia Pruiti, and Francesco Sortino

Vulcano Island in Aeolian Archipelago last erupted in 1888-1890 and since then it is affected by an intense fumarolic activity from both the summit crater area of La Fossa volcano and by the hydrothermal system of Baia di Levante located very near to the main settlement of Vulcano Porto.  Ordinary solfataric activity is periodically interrupted by unrest crisis at La Fossa crater associated with increase in fumarole temperature and output, anomalous seismicity, ground deformation and accompanied by an increase in diffuse soil CO2 degassing at Vulcano Porto. In Autumn 2021 a new major unrest crisis began exposing to a high gas hazard Vulcano Porto settlement due to contemporary dispersion of crater fumarolic plume and diffuse soil CO2 degassing; Starting from February 2022, with apex in May, a huge increase in gas output of the geothermal system of Levante Bay was observed. The Baia di Levante area is characterized by the presence of a low-temperature fumarolic field (<100°C) either onshore and offshore and fed by a shallow hydrothermal aquifer heated by magmatic gases. A wide diffuse soil CO2 degassing area extends all over the main beach. The chemical composition of bubbling gases is CO2-dominant, associated with a 1-3 vol.% of H2S and minor CH4 and H2. The Bay is one of the main sites of attraction for the thousands of tourists who visit the island and given the increased risk for gas emissions and possible phreatic eruptions (due to overpressuration of the geothermal aquifer) we carried out some extraordinary geochemical surveys. These consisted of (i) estimation of diffuse soil CO2 flux over a target area (154 points over 16,750 m2) established since 2004; (ii) estimation of the convective CO2 and H2S flux (the main hazardous gases) from the onshore (50 points in the Mud Pool and surrounding areas) and offshore gas vents (2 main large vents and 60 small vents); (iii) Repeated measurements of the chemico-physical parameters (temperature, pH, Eh, conductivity and dissolved O2) in the Baia di Levante sea water (107 profiles; water depth from 50cm to 12m). In particular we investigated the areas characterized by the presence of whitish waters, trains of gas bubbles, emissive vents. Results shown significantly increased values ​​compared to the past of the total CO2 and H2S output (diffuse and convective) measured on land and at sea surface. The sea water shows the presence of a wide anomalous pH in the near-shore sector between Faraglione and Vent 1 and to a lesser extent to the N of the bay. A wide anomaly of negative Eh values ​​persist at all depths in almost all of the bay. A huge emissions of acid gases from the increased submarine fumaroles alter the chemical-physical parameters of the sea water along the bay. Considering the increased gas hazard the adoption of risk prevention measures was suggested to authorities.

How to cite: Ranaldi, M., Carapezza, M. L., Tarchini, L., Pagliuca, N. M., Pruiti, L., and Sortino, F.: Gas hazard assessment at the hydrothermal system of Baia di Levante at Vulcano Island during the 2021-23 unrest of La Fossa crater (Aeolian Islands, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20387, 2025.

Natural microseismicity serves as a potent tool for exploring smaller-scale hydrothermal and tectonic phenomena. Investigating seismic activities within the hydrothermal fields of mid-ocean ridges(MORs) offers profound insights into earth's internal dynamics. However, studies on natural earthquakes at ultra-slow spreading ridges, especially the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR), remain relatively scarce. To investigate the microseismic distribution, heat flow pathways, and tectonic characteristics of the Longqi hydrothermal field, a typical representative of SWIR, this paper processed one month of passive source OBS data from the DY43 cruise through microearthquake detection and relocation, obtaining a catalog of over 3000 earthquakes, significantly expanding the earthquake database for the Longqi field and improving the magnitude completeness. And the b-value calculation and imaging of the earthquake catalog were carried out using the maximum likelihood method and grid search method, respectively. The research results indicate that: ① The overall b-value of the SWIR Longqi field is 0.989; ② The b-value at the center of the Longqi hydrothermal vent is approximately 0.8, while the b-value around the vent is around 1.2; ③ High and low b-value areas alternate at a depth of 10km along the ridge axis; ④ There is an anomalously low b-value area of around 0.5 at depths of 12-16 km to the north across the ridge axis. Combining previous research results on b-values at MORs, this paper suggests that the background b-value of less than 1 in the Longqi field is consistent with its tectonic-type hydrothermal origin. The detachment fault beneath the Longqi hydrothermal vent leads to high stress and a low b-value, while the microseismic activity around the vent originates from rock fracturing caused by the combined effects of cold seawater and hydrothermal fluids. The uneven distribution of high and low b-values in the deep part of the hydrothermal field may reflect the uneven distribution of subsurface magma. The low b-value area in the north is speculated to be due to high stress resulting from torsional compression at the bottom of the detachment fault. In summary, it can be anticipated that the spatial distribution of b-values will serve as an indicator and reference factor for stress, fault structure, and magmatic-hydrothermal activity in MOR hydrothermal field in the future.

How to cite: wang, K.: Spatial distribution of b-values for microseismicity in the SWIR Longqi hydrothermal field and magmatic-tectonic interpretation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20441, 2025.

EGU25-20933 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Seismotectonics of the Oriente Transform Fault revisited 

Eric Calais, Sylvie Leroy, Jeffrey Poort, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Bernard Mercier de Lépinay, O'Leary Gonzalez, Bladimir Moreno, Jose-Luis Granja-Bruna, Walter Roest, Boris Marcaillou, Chastity Aiken, and Frauke Klingelhoefer

Transform faults are often considered to be geometrically simple, nearly linear, vertical structures that localize crustal deformation within a narrow zone surrounding the fault. The deformation kinematics are typically purely strike-slip, parallel to far-field plate motion, with seismic slip above the brittle-ductile transition, near the 600 °C isotherm, which is well predicted by thermal models. Although deviations from these simplified features have been described, much remains to be learned about the seismogenic behavior of transform faults, for example, why they release much less seismic moment than predicted by plate motion models, or why they so rarely produce earthquakes of magnitudes as large as would be expected given their geometric segmentation (>M7). 

The Oriente Transform Fault (OTF) along the southern margin of eastern Cuba, at the boundary between the Caribbean and North American plates, is a particularly relevant example to inform on the seismogenic behavior of transform faults for at least 5 reasons: (1) the OTF geometry changes from a nearly continuous trace along the Cayman Ridge to a highly segmented one westward along eastern Cuba, (2) the geometrically continuous segment was the location of a magnitude 7.8 supershear earthquake in January 2020, (3) GNSS-derived strain measurements indicate that this segmentation variation corresponds to a transition from very shallow (<5 km) mechanical coupling —perhaps creep— of the fault, to complete coupling across the entire crustal thickness (20 km), (4) earthquake hypocenters offshore eastern Cuba locally reach subcrustal depths, (5) earthquake focal mechanisms and offshore geological observations show fault-normal compressional deformation along this purely strike-slip segment.

Here we revisit the offshore trace and seismotectonics of the OTF in light of recent data. We benefit from several oceanographic campaigns in the northern Caribbean, in particular the recent Haiti-TWIST campaign of the Pourquoi Pas? R/V, during which new high-resolution bathymetric and seismic reflection data were acquired, filling several important gaps. We also benefit from recent deformation results from GNSS measurements in Cuba, as well as a new compilation of earthquake moment tensor solutions.

How to cite: Calais, E., Leroy, S., Poort, J., Lebrun, J.-F., Mercier de Lépinay, B., Gonzalez, O., Moreno, B., Granja-Bruna, J.-L., Roest, W., Marcaillou, B., Aiken, C., and Klingelhoefer, F.: Seismotectonics of the Oriente Transform Fault revisited, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20933, 2025.

EGU25-20984 | Posters virtual | VPS22

SUBUTTEC Project: SUBdUcTion triggered Terrestrial Evolution in the Caribbean 

Mélody Philippon, Julissa Roncal, Jean Jacques Cornée, Fréderic Quillevere, Diane Arcay, Nestor Cerpa, Laurent Husson, Yannick Boucharat, Alain Rousteau, Visotheary Ung, Etienne Bezault, Manon Lorcery, Matthias Bernet, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Nicolas Riel, Boris Kaus, Manuel Pubellier, Danae Thivaiou, Leny Montheil, and Mélanie Noury and the SUBUTTEC Team

Subduction zones represent more than half of the total plate boundaries length (38,000 over 64,000km) and cause fast geographic changes by a range of geological processes occurring at local to regional scales such as crustal deformation, volcanism, or dynamic topography. The associated transient changes in land-sea distributions influence the migration, genetic drift, adaptation, speciation, and endemism of the terrestrial biosphere that conquered emerged landmasses. Today, archipelagos located along subduction zones hostone-third of the biodiversity hotspots in the world (Myers et al., 2000). In this context, SUBUTTEC research team aim at combining geological and biological data to unravel the links between the subduction dynamics and terrestrial life in subduction zones based on the case study of the Antilles hotspot. This short and dynamic subduction zone, bounding the east of the Caribbean plate, is ideally circumscribed by two giant continents and two equally giant oceans that provide rather static boundary conditions. To unravel the role of the southern Lesser Antilles in the dynamics of Caribbean biodiversity, we will perform paleogeographic reconstructions over the last 20 Myrs, focused on the unknown role of the southern Lesser Antilles, will be done by integrating tectonics, paleomagnetism, (bio-)stratigraphy and geochronology. We will match these paleogeographic reconstructions with the assemblage distribution and phylogenetic records of extant endemic species, which will allow us to test for alternative scenarios of the temporal dispersion and evolution of life in this highly dynamic hotspot region for both biodiversity and tectonic activity. The implementation of comparative biogeographical methods provides here a powerful tool to reveal natural classification of biogeographic areas i.e. bioregionalization and identification of vicariant events. The joint analysis of the geological and biological records will provide a macro-ecological framework of the biosphere/biodiversity dynamics over subduction zones.

How to cite: Philippon, M., Roncal, J., Cornée, J. J., Quillevere, F., Arcay, D., Cerpa, N., Husson, L., Boucharat, Y., Rousteau, A., Ung, V., Bezault, E., Lorcery, M., Bernet, M., Sarr, A.-C., Riel, N., Kaus, B., Pubellier, M., Thivaiou, D., Montheil, L., and Noury, M. and the SUBUTTEC Team: SUBUTTEC Project: SUBdUcTion triggered Terrestrial Evolution in the Caribbean, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20984, 2025.

EGU25-21421 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Chemical mapping of methane in the Northern Guaymas Basin hydrothermal field 

Anna Michel, Mary Burkitt-Gray, Spencer Marquardt, Sarah Youngs, Jordan Remar, Samantha Joye, and Jason Kapit

The Guaymas Basin is a large marginal rift basin in the Gulf of California with ongoing seafloor spreading and strong hydrothermalism centered around two axial troughs. Extremely high concentrations of methane are discharged from diffuse hydrothermal flow, black smokers, and cold seeps. A thick sediment layer across the basin allows for thermocatalytic production of methane in the hot subsurface, resulting in the discharge of hydrothermal fluids from powerful black smokers with temperatures exceeding 300°C. The cooler surface sediments additionally support methanogenesis, providing a complex interplay between the biogenic and abiogenic systems. The dynamism of the Guaymas Basin means that the flux and distribution of hydrothermal vents in this region can change rapidly, impacting the wider oceanography of the region.

We present here results from a 2024 study of hydrothermalism in the Guaymas basin using a new optical sensor, developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. SAGE – the Sensor for Aqueous Gases in the Environment – utilizes laser absorption spectroscopy through a hollow core optic fiber to quantify the partial pressure of dissolved methane extracted from the deep sea. This in situ sensor, deployed during a cruise on the R/V Atlantis allows continuous measurement of methane concentrations with high spatiotemporal resolution, with a sampling rate of 1Hz and a stable response time of 1-5 minutes. This new sensing technique facilitated analysis of the relationships between microbial communities and hydrothermalism and guided dives towards hydrothermal vents based on the real-time methane concentration. It also allowed the comprehensive in situ analysis of a rapidly evolving black smoker vent site in the northern axial trough, allowing the methane export to the water column to be characterized with high spatiotemporal resolution. The low detection limit of SAGE – down to ~10 ppm – allows the analysis of the broader impact of these dynamic methane-based systems into the wider oceanography of the region.

How to cite: Michel, A., Burkitt-Gray, M., Marquardt, S., Youngs, S., Remar, J., Joye, S., and Kapit, J.: Chemical mapping of methane in the Northern Guaymas Basin hydrothermal field, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21421, 2025.

EGU25-21462 | Posters virtual | VPS22

Understanding the arc-continent collision zones in western Philippines: Novel insights from the Romblon Island Group and the Central Zamboanga Peninsula 

Gabriel Theophilus Valera, John Kenneth Badillo, Andrew Exequiel S. Tabilog, Nikko M. Balanial, Mariz L. Alcancia, and Betchaida D. Payot

The continent-derived nature of the western Philippines (Palawan-Mindoro Microcontinental Block; PCB) contrasts with the island arc-dominated eastern Philippines (Philippine Mobile Belt; PMB). Petrological investigation on the P-T-D history of the metamorphosed rocks in between these two terranes and how they relate to the broader tectonic events are however lacking. In this study, we examined rock units related to the arc-continent collision events in two areas: the Romblon Island Group and the central Zamboanga Peninsula.

In central Philippines, the Romblon Metamorphic Complex (RMC) represents the PCB-derived materials. The RMC consists of metapelitic and metapsammitic paraschists in Tablas, Romblon, and Sibuyan with minor orthoschists and marbles. Using two-feldspar geothermometery, and Raman Spectrometry of Carbonaceous Material, the temperature variations revealed a low P/TStage 1 metamorphism of all RMC units with peak T and P values of about 450-540°C at <5 kbars. Based on tensional structures (e.g. boudins) and preserved metapelitic-metapsammitic interlayering, we attribute this Stage 1 to the PMB continental rifting and subsequent shallowing of the paleogeothermal gradient. The RMC paraschists which are adjacent to the Sibuyan Ophiolite  Complex (SOC) meanwhile register significantly higher T at the same low P conditions (= 570-630 °C). This suggests a second stage of higher T deformation and metamorphism directly linked with the juxtaposition of the continental RMC and the island arc SOC. This is consistent with the subsolidus shearing and metamorphism of the isotropic gabbro units of the SOC with preserved P-T conditions of about 500-800°C.

The southern extension of the PCB-PMB collision is even less understood although earlier works extend the arc-continent suture zone in Mindanao Island, southern Philippines. The purported boundary of the continent-derived Zamboanga Peninsula and the island arc Eastern Mindanao is the northwest-southeast trending Siayan-Sindangan Suture Zone. Our field mapping in central Zamboanga Peninsula however revealed a distinct northeast-southwest trending suture zone of an apparent arc-continent collision zone. Across this NE-SW suture zone, the lithologies progress from the paraschists of the Gutalac Metamorphic Complex (GMC) in the northeast to the amphibolites of the Dansalan Metamorphic Complex (DMC). Further southeast, the residual peridotites and pillow lavas with intercalated chert, deep marine turbidites and limestones of the Polanco Ophiolite Complex (POC) are exposed. Such progression hints at a NE-SW convergence of an ancient arc (POC) with its metamorphic sole (DMC) against the continent-derived GMC following the consumption of an ancient oceanic basin.

How to cite: Valera, G. T., Badillo, J. K., Tabilog, A. E. S., Balanial, N. M., Alcancia, M. L., and Payot, B. D.: Understanding the arc-continent collision zones in western Philippines: Novel insights from the Romblon Island Group and the Central Zamboanga Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21462, 2025.

EGU25-2404 | Posters virtual | VPS23

Rare-metal and rare earth element mineralizations in the eastern Liaoning-southern Jilin tectonic zone in Northeast China: A review 

Nan Ju, Gao Yang, Pengge Zhang, Jinxuan Li, Yue Wu, Shi Lu, Bo Liu, Xiaoping Yang, Xin Liu, and Yuhui Feng

The eastern Liaoning-southern Jilin tectonic zone (also referred to as the Liao-Ji tectonic zone), a potential zone for rare-metal and REE mineralizations in China, hosts over 10 rare-metal and REE deposits and ore occurrences with varying scales and mineralization characteristics, which establish this zone as an ideal target for research on the metallogenic regularities of rare-metal and REE mineralizations.The study area resides in the northern part of the East Asian continental margin, lying on the overlapping part of the North China and the Western Pacific Plates, is located in the northeastern North China Plate, consisting of the North China Craton and the north margin orogen of the North China Plate. This area serves as a critical large-scale copper-gold and polymetallic mineral resource base in China, also providing favorable geologic conditions for the enrichment and mineralization of rare metals and REEs. So far, many rare-metal and REE deposits and ore occurrences have been discovered in the Liao-Ji tectonic zone, including two large Nb-Be-Zr-REE deposits (i.e., Lijiapuzi and Pianshishan), two medium-sized Rb-Be-Nb-Ta-REE deposits (i.e., Saima and Gangshan), one small Nb-Ta-REE deposit (i.e., Shijia), and over 10 rare metal-REE ore occurrences (e.g., Xiaolizi, and Baiqi), suggesting considerable mineralization potential. Most of the deposits in the Liao-Ji tectonic zone are closely associated with alkaline rocks.

Extensive field surveys and geochemical studies of the above deposits reveal that the ore-forming rock masses of the Pianshishan, Gangshan, and Lijiapuzi deposits include alkaline granites and pegmatites and those of the Shijia and Saima deposits are quartz syenites and aegirine nepheline syenites, respectively. The Pianshishan (67±2.2 Ma) and Gangshan (110±1.2 Ma) deposits were formed during the Yanshanian, the Shijia (226.3±2.4 Ma) and Saima (224.4±6.1 Ma) deposits originated from the Late Indosinian magmatism, while the formation of the Lijiapuzi deposit (2501±11 Ma) was associated with the Lvliang Movement. Therefore, the study area underwent three stages of regional rare-metal and REE mineralizations: the Late Yanshanian (Mesozoic), Late Indosinian (Mesozoic), and Proterozoic Lvliangian mineralizations. The petrogeochemical analysis indicates that the ore-forming rock masses of several typical deposits all belong to the metaluminous, alkaline - calc-alkaline, and tholeiitic basalt series, sharing similarities with the elemental geochemical characteristics of intraplate rift rock series and rocks in an extensional environment under plate subduction. The rare-metal and REE mineralizations in the study area were primarily governed by the evolution and crystallization differentiation of alkaline magmas. Given that the alkaline magmatic rocks were all formed by crust-mantle contamination, this study posits that the enrichment and mineralization processes of rare metals and REEs in the Liao-Ji tectonic zone are intimately associated with the highly evolved alkaline magmas. Under the action of water and volatile constituents, magmas underwent intense fractional crystallization, leading to the migration and accumulation of ore-forming elements. With changes in ore-forming conditions such as temperature and pressure, ore-bearing fluids became enriched and mineralized in the late stage of magmatism with the crystallization of primary rock-forming minerals.

How to cite: Ju, N., Yang, G., Zhang, P., Li, J., Wu, Y., Lu, S., Liu, B., Yang, X., Liu, X., and Feng, Y.: Rare-metal and rare earth element mineralizations in the eastern Liaoning-southern Jilin tectonic zone in Northeast China: A review, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2404, 2025.

EGU25-2960 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Enrichment Factors of Alkali and Key Metal Mineral Resources in Fengcheng Formation of Mahu Sag, the Junggar Basin 

Xin yu Liu, Qiu Longwei, and Yang Yongqiang

The second member of the Fengcheng Formation in the early Permian of the Mahu Depression has a rock series with interbedded alkali mineral layers and tuffaceous layers. The dark layer contains a large amount of associated metal minerals, which are closely related to the volcanic hydrothermal material at the Fengnan fault nose. However, due to the presence of detrital rock deposits on the west side of the Mahu Depression, this area is jointly controlled by volcanoes and terrestrial sources to form alkali mineralization. There are also a large number of dark hydrocarbon source rocks developed in the region, which are also one of the reasons for the mineralization of alkali minerals and associated metal minerals. Therefore, a mineralization model is established.

How to cite: Liu, X. Y., Longwei, Q., and Yongqiang, Y.: Enrichment Factors of Alkali and Key Metal Mineral Resources in Fengcheng Formation of Mahu Sag, the Junggar Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2960, 2025.

EGU25-3157 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Improving near real-time GNSS-IR sea level retrievals with robust outlier detection 

Cemali Altuntas, Bahattin Erdogan, Nursu Tunalioglu, and Simon Williams

The Global Navigation Satellite Systems - Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) method has been utilized for nearly fifteen years as an alternative and cost-effective approach to determine hydrological parameters such as sea level, snow depth, and soil moisture through the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data. Most GNSS-IR studies to date rely on archived data and post-processed results. However, the potential for near real-time GNSS-IR analysis is increasingly being explored. In this study, high-rate GNSS archive data, sampled at 1-second intervals and stored in 15-minute files, were processed in a simulated near real-time workflow. Every 15 minutes, new data were added to the analysis, focusing exclusively on the most recent 60 minutes of observations. A novel approach for detecting outliers in near real-time GNSS-IR estimates was also proposed. The median-based robust outlier detection (ROD) method, previously validated for post-processed GNSS-IR snow depth results, was adapted and applied to near real-time GNSS-IR data. A 30-day dataset of multi-GNSS, multi-frequency SNR observations from the Portland (PTLD) GNSS station in Australia, collected in November 2024, was analyzed. The near real-time GNSS-IR results were validated using sea level measurements from the PORL tide gauge station. The results demonstrate that the modified ROD approach can be used to identify outliers in near real-time GNSS-IR sea level retrievals.

How to cite: Altuntas, C., Erdogan, B., Tunalioglu, N., and Williams, S.: Improving near real-time GNSS-IR sea level retrievals with robust outlier detection, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3157, 2025.

The bauxitic region of Sumbi and its surroundings in Kongo Central (DR Congo) is located in an area corresponding to “bands” of basic rocks made up of microdolerites, basalts and andesites. The problem of this study is linked to the similarity of the phenomena that generated the depositional process of these ferruginous and aluminous formations. The aim of this article is to carry out a chemical and petrographic study of samples of bauxitic materials from the Mayedo and Kinzoki regions, with a view to their possible recovery. To this end, the chemical and petrographic analysis of the weathering formations outcropping in the study area was carried out using X-ray fluorescence and thin section methods. The latter revealed that two lithologies were detected in the healthy rocks: basalts with a mineralogical assemblage of plagioclase crystals, pyroxene microcrystals and oxide opaques; and dolerites represented by plagioclase crystals, pyroxenes and a few quartz crystals. X-ray fluorescence revealed high levels of Al2O3 (32.69%) in the Mayedo zone (MHb1). This visibly gibbsite-rich level corresponds to the zone of friable, homogeneous bauxite with a massive, blood-red texture, with an estimated gibbsite percentage of 55.50. The percentage of Fe2O3 is high in these zones at 42.77%, hence the dark red colour, reflecting a strong zone of ferruginasation. This horizon contains a high concentration of hematite and goethite minerals. Highly variable SiO2 contents ranging from 13.48% to 40.82%. These variations are essentially due to the dissolution of silica by leaching and resilification.

How to cite: Mwanakangu, E. and Ungu, D.: Petrographic and Geochemical Characterization of Mayedo and Kinzoki Ranges (Sumbi Bauxite Region, Kongo Central/DR Congo), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3874, 2025.

EGU25-4633 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Deep Neural Networks for GNSS Coordinate Time Series Modeling and Prediction 

Jian Wang, Zhao Li, and Weiping Jiang

High-precision GNSS coordinate time series modeling and prediction provide a critical reference for applications such as crustal deformation, structural safety monitoring, and regional or global reference frame maintenance. A Deep neural network framework based on Transformer was applied to 22 GNSS stations, each with 1000 days, in which data is preprocessed using a synchronization sliding window. The overall fitting and prediction trends exhibit a high degree of consistency with the original time series. The average fitting RMSE and MAE are 3.40 mm and 2.64 mm, respectively, while the corresponding average prediction RMSE and MAE are 3.54 mm and 2.77 mm. In comparison to the LSTM model, the proposed method achieved a redu78ction in RMSE and MAE by 20.7% and 19.6%, respectively. Furthermore, when benchmarked against the traditional least squares approach, the improvements were even more pronounced, with RMSE and MAE decreasing by 35.7% and 37.8%, respectively. The approach demonstrates robustness and effectiveness under conditions of discontinuous data. Therefore, it could be used as a convenient alternative to predict GNSS coordinate time series and will be of wide practical value in the fields of reference frame maintenance and deformation early warning.

How to cite: Wang, J., Li, Z., and Jiang, W.: Deep Neural Networks for GNSS Coordinate Time Series Modeling and Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4633, 2025.

EGU25-4666 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Insight into the genesis of barite deposit in Vempalle Formation, Cuddapah basin, India 

Devika Devanand Sreekala and Soundra Pandian Muthusamy

The Vemula-Velpula hydrothermal barite deposit is hosted by mafic dykes (ca. 1850 Ma. [1]) intruding into the uppermost part of about 1900 m thick carbonate strata of the Vempalle Formation (ca. 2000 Ma. [2]) in Cuddapah basin and occurs as fracture-fill and breccia-fill veins. The veins dominantly consist of barite with minor quartz. The host mafic rock has undergone various extents of hydrothermal alteration, due to which the primary calcic plagioclase-clinopyroxene assemblage is altered to albite and clinochlore, along with the introduction of secondary epidote, quartz, and calcite. The wide range in Ba concentration of mafic rock (68 to 3012 ppm) associated with the barite mineralization indicates that Ba was mobilized and subsequently leached from the mafic rock by the hydrothermal fluid during this alteration event. The δ34S values of barite range from +16.19 to +23.24‰ which falls within the range of δ34S value of +10 to +30‰ estimated for Proterozoic seawater [3]. At shallow crustal depth where this deposit was formed, direct participation of seawater is unlikely and therefore basinal brine is inferred to be the source of sulphate ion required for barite mineralization. Primary aqueous biphase fluid inclusions in barite have homogenization temperatures ranging from 180 to 300 °C, with most of them clustering in the range 220-250°C, and salinities ranging from 2.4 to 25.8 wt.% NaCl equivalent. The first ice melting temperature of these inclusions was measured between -55 and -37°C, broadly pointing towards an H2O-NaCl-CaCl2 fluid system. Petrography and microthermometric data of fluid inclusions indicate the involvement of two fluids of different salinities, which, upon mixing and cooling, led to barite precipitation.

This research work was funded by SERB, New Delhi (Scheme No. CRG/2019/001015).

 

References

[1] Chakraborty K. et al. (2016), Journal of the Geological Society of India 87, 631–660.

[2] Rai A.K. et al., (2015), Journal of the Geological Society of India 86, 131–136.

[3] Strauss H (1993) Precambrian Research 63(3–4), 225–246.

How to cite: Devanand Sreekala, D. and Muthusamy, S. P.: Insight into the genesis of barite deposit in Vempalle Formation, Cuddapah basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4666, 2025.

EGU25-5245 | Posters virtual | VPS23

W-Sn Ore-Mineral Geochronology: New Ages Improve Genesis Models 

Niki Wintzer, Christopher Holm-Denoma, Florian Altenberger, and Samuel Waugh

Direct ore-mineral U-Pb geochronology of scheelite (CaWO4), cassiterite (SnO2), and wolframite ([Fe,Mn]WO4) using recently-developed reference materials led to new ore-genesis insights for multiple worldwide W-Sn/rare metal deposits. Scheelite from the Yellow Pine epithermal Au-W-Sb deposit in Idaho, USA was age dated using U-Pb via isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). These analyses provided both the first age constraints on the tungsten mineralization (ca. 57 Ma) and a scheelite U-Pb reference material (NMNH-107667; 57.52 ± 0.22 Ma). The data reveal ore mineralization occurred in numerous discrete pulses during crustal uplift, which contrasts with the previous two-mineralization-event model.

The Yellow Pine scheelite reference material enabled U-Pb scheelite geochronology via LA-ICP-MS for multiple other deposits worldwide; namely, the polyphase stratabound scheelite-ferberite mineralization hosted within Fe-rich magnesite zones and marbles in two locations around Mount Mallnock, Austria. Two unexpected but geologically meaningful age dates (294 ± 8 Ma) for Mallnock West and (239 ± 3 Ma) for Mallnock North revealed for the first time that ore mineralization occurred during an extensional geodynamic setting as part of the breakup of Pangea, as opposed to the previous model invoking the older compressional tectonics of the Variscan orogeny.

Combining direct-ore geochronology methods for several ore minerals was particularly powerful for Sn- and W-bearing deposits in southeast Australia. A U-Pb cassiterite age date (435 ± 2 Ma) revealed the tin-bearing lithium pegmatites of the Dorchap Dyke Swarm are ca. 15 Ma older than some previous estimates suggesting mineralization was related to the earliest magmatic activity recorded in the Wagga-Omeo Metamorphic Belt. Additionally, a new U-Pb wolframite age date (395 ± 5 Ma) for the Womobi polymetallic (W-Mo-Bi) deposit is ca. 21 million years younger than the host Thologolong granite, suggesting the granite was a passive host that was mineralized by a concealed intrusion. Both instances revealed mineralization ages that were significantly different than previously accepted. More widespread application of these increasingly diverse, direct-ore geochronology methods stand to replace uncertain spatial or textural associations, thereby providing an opportunity to significantly improve ore genesis models.


How to cite: Wintzer, N., Holm-Denoma, C., Altenberger, F., and Waugh, S.: W-Sn Ore-Mineral Geochronology: New Ages Improve Genesis Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5245, 2025.

EGU25-8007 | Posters virtual | VPS23

Length of the Day changes and climate signatures- their relations in detected ENSO Events 

Małgorzata Wińska, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Jolanta Nastula, and Dominika Staniszewska

The relationship between the length of day (LOD) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been extensively studied since the 1980s. LOD represents the negative time derivative of UT1-UTC, directly proportional to the Earth Rotation Angle (ERA), a key Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP).

ENSO is a climate phenomenon occurring in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that primarily impacts the tropics and subtropics. Extreme ENSO events can lead to severe weather conditions, such as flooding and droughts, across various regions worldwide. ENSO event undergoes a lengthy incubation period, during which the interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) are rapidly influenced by the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere.

The significant characteristics of climate change are the rise of global temperature and sea level, which are driven by ENSO. Interannual oscillations in global mean sea temperature (GMST) and global mean sea level (GMSL) might also impact changes in the Earth’s rotation velocity.

The goal of this study is to explain in more detail connections among the interannual (2-8 years) variations of the LOD, AAM, and different climate indices, like the Southern Oscillation Index SOI, Oceanic Niño Index ONI, GMSL, and GMST. The influence of climate signatures on LOD from January 1976 to December 2024 is assessed using semblance analysis based on continuous wavelet transform. This method evaluates the correlation between climate time series in the time and wavelength domains.

Studying the relationship between LOD, AAM, GMSL, GMST, and ENSO indices enhances our understanding of Earth's dynamic system, improves geophysical models, and increases the precision of applications dependent on accurate timekeeping and Earth rotation measurements.

How to cite: Wińska, M., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Nastula, J., and Staniszewska, D.: Length of the Day changes and climate signatures- their relations in detected ENSO Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8007, 2025.

EGU25-9320 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Signature of mantle anelasticity detected by GPS ocean tide loading observations  

Pingping Huang, Nigel T. Penna, Peter J. Clarke, Volker Klemann, Zdeněk Martinec, and Yoshiyuki Tanaka

Anelasticity is a type of rheology intermediate between elasticity and viscosity, responsible for rock’s transient creep behaviour. Whether to consider anelasticity in geodynamic processes operating outside the seismic frequency band which likely involve transient mantle creep is still under debate. Here, we focus on the geodynamic process of ocean tide loading (OTL), namely the deformational response of the solid Earth to the periodic ocean water-mass redistributions caused by astronomical tides. By analysing high-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) data from over 250 sites in western Europe and numerical OTL values from advanced three-dimensional Earth models, we unambiguously demonstrate anelastic OTL displacements in both the horizontal and vertical directions. This finding establishes the need to consider anelasticity in geodynamic processes operating at sub-seismic timescales such as OTL, post-seismic movement, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to rapid ice melting. Consequently, to construct a uniform viscoelastic law for modelling Earth deformations across multiple timescales anelasticity must be incorporated. Our best-fitting anelastic models reveal the shear modulus in Earth’s upper mantle to be weaker at semi-diurnal tidal frequencies by up to 20% compared to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) specified at 1 Hz, and constrain the time dependence of this weakening.

How to cite: Huang, P., Penna, N. T., Clarke, P. J., Klemann, V., Martinec, Z., and Tanaka, Y.: Signature of mantle anelasticity detected by GPS ocean tide loading observations , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9320, 2025.

EGU25-9503 | Posters virtual | VPS23

Seismotectonics of the Intracontinental High Atlas Mountains, Morocco, Derived from Regional Seismic Moment Tensor Analysis: Insights into tectonics and stress regimes. 

Brahim Oujane, Lahcen El Moudnib, Martin Zeckra, Said Badrane, and Abderrahime Nouayti

This study investigates the present-day seismotectonic framework of the High Atlas Mountains, Morocco, with a specific focus on the area affected by the devastating Mw 6.8 Al Haouz earthquake of September 8, 2023. Leveraging a high-resolution seismic dataset encompassing over twenty moderate earthquakes (M 3.5-6.8) recorded by regional networks between 2008 and 2024, the research aims to refine earthquake locations and characterize the regional stress field. Initially located using P-wave arrival times, earthquake hypocenters were subsequently relocated using the double-difference method, which yielded more precise locations by minimizing travel-time residuals between pairs of events recorded at common stations. The high degree of agreement between the initial and relocated solutions validates the robustness of the location estimates. Notably, the observed seismicity is confined to shallow crustal depths, consistently shallower than 30 km, corroborating the shallow rupture observed for the Al Haouz earthquake, which occurred at a depth of approximately 31 km. This shallow seismicity suggests a shallow deformation style within the High Atlas.

To determine the state of the present-day tectonic and stress regimes across the western and central segments of the High Atlas, the study uses two complementary approaches: regional seismic moment tensor inversion and P-wave first motion focal mechanism analysis. Fault plane solutions were calculated using P-wave first motion polarities and further constrained through regional moment tensor inversion. The majority of analyzed earthquakes exhibit reverse faulting mechanisms, often with a significant strike-slip component, indicating a complex deformation pattern. Analysis of the principal stress axes (P, B, and T) derived from the focal mechanisms reveals average orientations of 16/189, 39/036, and 08/104 (plunge/azimuth), respectively. Subsequently, tectonic stress tensor properties were derived through inversion of the focal mechanism parameters. The results of this stress inversion indicate a predominantly N-S oriented maximum horizontal stress (σ1) in the Western High Atlas, closely aligned with the faulting style of the Al Haouz earthquake. In contrast, the stress field in the Central High Atlas exhibits a transition to a NW-SE to NNW-NNE orientation of σ1. These spatially varying stress orientations are consistent with independently derived GPS velocities and available neotectonics data, which document ongoing shortening across the High Atlas. This integrated analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of the active tectonic deformation within the High Atlas, shedding light on the complex interplay of faulting styles and stress orientations, and providing crucial insights into the source mechanism and broader tectonic context of the Al Haouz earthquake within the Western High Atlas region.

How to cite: Oujane, B., El Moudnib, L., Zeckra, M., Badrane, S., and Nouayti, A.: Seismotectonics of the Intracontinental High Atlas Mountains, Morocco, Derived from Regional Seismic Moment Tensor Analysis: Insights into tectonics and stress regimes., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9503, 2025.

EGU25-9618 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Horizontal tectonic stresses and its implications in the Shillong Plateau and its adjoining using gravity data 

Priyank Pathak and William Kumar Mohanty

North East India (NEI) is situated between the Himalayan collision arc to the north and the Indo-Burmese Ranges (IBR) to the east. The tectonic unit of the NEI, Shillong Plateau (SP), is one of the most active seismotectonic zones of the Indian subcontinent, as demonstrated by its seismicity. It is crucial to identify active faults in populated areas for human safety and the sustainable development of society. The gravity method is one of the convenient methods to delineate the shallow to deeper subsurface discontinuities, i.e., it is useful to detect active faults in the subsurface compared to other geophysical methods (e.g., Electrical, and Electromagnetic methods). In this study, detailed multilayer horizontal tectonics stress (HTS) was calculated using the approach of multi-scale decomposition of gravity anomalies data. HTS can be helpful in demarcating shallow to deep-seated tectonic structures. The tectonic features exhibit a strong correlation with the distribution of HTS at different depths. Major faults and earthquake epicentre align with areas of high stress, while stable zones correspond to regions of low stress. It means that HTS is employed to deduce the distribution and stability of faults. The high value of HTS is increased from shallow to deep depths for SP, Mikir Hills, IBR and Eastern Himalaya in the NEI region, and it varies as ~ 0.2-0.53 MPa, ~ 0.24-0.61 MPa, ~ 0.3-0.84 MPa, ~ 0.4-1.2 MPa, ~ 0.57 1.86 MPa, ~ 0.8-2.4 MPa, ~ 0.84-3.0 MPa at 4, 8, 12, 20, 40, 50, and 60 km depths, respectively. While the Brahmaputra Valley and the Surma Basin show relatively less stress, where HTS varies between ~ 0.1-0.33 MPa for 4, 8, 12, 20, 40, 50, and 60 km depths. It can be interpreted that the populated SP and Mikir Hills are highly unstable or earthquake-prone regions due to high stress.

How to cite: Pathak, P. and Kumar Mohanty, W.: Horizontal tectonic stresses and its implications in the Shillong Plateau and its adjoining using gravity data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9618, 2025.

EGU25-9658 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Exploring various approaches to combine Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) predictions gathered during the Second EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) 

Maciej Michalczak, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Małgorzata Wińska, Aleksander Partyka, Marcin Ligas, and Jolanta Nastula

The Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) aimed to evaluate and compare various methods of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions. One of the goals of the 2nd EOP PCC was to prepare a combination of the predictions to obtain one robust and accurate solution for forecasts of individual parameters. This presentation focuses on identifying the most reliable and accurate combination of predictions for polar motion (PMx, PMy), universal time variations (UT1-UTC), and length of day (LOD) among the methods tested during the 2nd EOP PCC.

Two types of experiments were designed for this study: "operational" combinations tailored to real-time comparisons and practical application and "final" combinations designed for comprehensive analysis. Boths approaches incorporated six methods for handling outlier predictions, ranging from no filtration to progressively stricter criteria using the σ+β method (with α values ranging from 5 to 1). All experiments cover the period of 2nd EOP PCC (from September 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022), and each approach includes 70 10-day predictions.

The results show that combining various submissions generally enhances stability and accuracy of EOP forecasts. The σ+β criterion with α = 1 achieved the smallest Mean Absolute Prediction Error, indicating high accuracy of prediction. However, this method of eliminating outliers forecasts is the most restrictive, as it excludes a significant number of predictions. In contrast, operational combinations without filtering proved more practical for real-time applications, albeit with slightly higher errors.

The findings underscore the importance of tailoring combination strategies to specific goals—whether prioritizing maximum accuracy or practical applicability. This research highlights the benefits of prediction combination methods in improving EOP forecasts, offering a foundation for further development of operational strategies and expanding their use in geophysical and astronomical applications.

How to cite: Michalczak, M., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Wińska, M., Partyka, A., Ligas, M., and Nastula, J.: Exploring various approaches to combine Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) predictions gathered during the Second EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9658, 2025.

EGU25-11708 | Posters virtual | VPS23

Enhanced Celestial Pole Offset forecast via combination of different data sources 

Marcin Ligas, Maciej Michalczak, Santiago Belda, Jose M. Ferrándiz, Maria Karbon, and Sadegh Modiri

This study introduces a methodology designed to enhance the accuracy of Celestial Pole Offset (dX, dY) prediction, with a focus on a short-term forecast horizon (up to 30-days). IERS EOP final data as well as those published by JPL are used as input for the  prediction algorithms. The prediction procedure is consistent, in the sense that, it does not rely on any external data to fill any latency gaps in the final IERS product. This is handled within the prediction routine itself by enlarging the forecast horizon to the gap filling horizon and proper forecast horizon. In this way, the presented methodology is ready to use under operational settings what makes it well suited for real time applications. Such an approach enables also to asses prediction capabilities of the methods in offline experiments whilst maintaining the operational settings. JPL CPO data serves as supplementary series for prediction and adjusting using Deming regression to align it  with IERS CPO values (attempt to assess fixed and proportional biases between series). The prediction strategy applies also the Whittaker-Henderson smoother to IERS CPO series, which after smoothing is treated as an additional source of information in the prediction process. Separate predictions based on JPL, IERS and smoothed IERS series are also averaged in different combinations giving rise to ensemble data-based prediction model. In this way we show that the overpredictive and underpredictive characteristics of specific input data, even with the application of a single prediction method, can result in a more precise and accurate final forecast. The presented approach was tested against the results obtained within the course of the 2nd EOPPCC, as well as other contemporary studies. This presentation includes also a comparison of performance of the method in reference to different series, i.e., IERS EOP 14 C04 and IERS EOP 20 C04.

How to cite: Ligas, M., Michalczak, M., Belda, S., Ferrándiz, J. M., Karbon, M., and Modiri, S.: Enhanced Celestial Pole Offset forecast via combination of different data sources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11708, 2025.

EGU25-12533 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Global VLBI ties using mixed-mode sessions 

Dhiman R. Mondal, Pedro Elosegui, Chester Ruszczyk, Frank Lemoine, and Dirk Behrend

Geodetic VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) currently consists of two observing networks (legacy S/X and broadband VGOS). Heretofore, the two networks have run rather independently, which is non-ideal. There have been several attempts to combine observations from both networks at sites with co-located antennas using either conventional local-tie surveys or VLBI tie-sessions between S/X and VGOS, or both. Unfortunately, the number of sites with co-located VLBI antennas is rather limited, which hampers progress. To overcome this problem, we proposed an approach, the so-called mixed-mode VLBI tie session, that does not require to have co-located VLBI antennas. Instead, mixed-mode sessions have the S/X and VGOS networks observed simultaneously as a single geodetic VLBI technique to thus obtain global ties between the two networks. Two of the sessions observed in 2020 were already included in the ITRF2020 combination. We hypothesize that the global-tie approach helps preserve the geometry of the networks when aligning with the state-of-art ITRF2020 frame. In this presentation, we will describe the observed mixed-mode sessions, detailing scheduling strategies, correlation techniques, and geodetic processing methods used. We will also demonstrate how mixed-mode sessions can help realize a stable global geodetic reference frame such as the ITRF.

How to cite: Mondal, D. R., Elosegui, P., Ruszczyk, C., Lemoine, F., and Behrend, D.: Global VLBI ties using mixed-mode sessions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12533, 2025.

EGU25-12972 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Advancements in Navigation Technology and Robustness Against GNSS Interference: A Comparative Analysis of CRPA  

Furkan Karlitepe, Serhat Sezen, Bahri Eren Velibasa, and Abdurrahman Kabalci

The progressive development of navigation technology has significantly improved real-time positioning accuracy, addressing the needs of modern applications. GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) is the primary system used for precise positioning across various platforms. However, GNSS is susceptible to errors, particularly interference, which degrades signal quality and compromises accuracy. Auxiliary systems such as INS, gyroscopes, and map-matching algorithms enhance reliability during interference but depend on GNSS for initialization. Signal detection algorithms, often employing CRPA (Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas) and advanced computational techniques, are essential for mitigating the impact of interferences and ensuring reliable navigation. This study compares the performance of two CRPA systems with different GNSS modules and algorithms, subjected to spoofing-jamming interference during experiments. The first CRPA, integrated with the u-blox ZED-F9P module, supports GPS, BeiDou, and Galileo satellites, employing an adaptive notch filter and pulse blanking. The second CRPA, featuring the Unicore UM980 module, supports GPS, BeiDou, and GLONASS satellites, utilizing a space-time algorithm alongside the JamShield adaptive mechanism for interference mitigation. In this study, real-time measurements were conducted on a car-mounted device platform under normal operating conditions. The platform was tested stationary for 5 minutes, followed by 15-minute intervals at speeds of 60 km/h. During each interval, 5 minutes of jamming and 5 minutes of spoofing were applied, with independent spoofing signals introduced. Jamming signals reached up to 50 dB-Hz, and spoofing signals were applied at levels up to 32 dB-Hz using a specialized interference device. During constant-speed travel, the second CRPA tracked 28 satellites with an HDOP of 0.5, while the first CRPA tracked 23 satellites with an HDOP of 0.75. Under jamming conditions, The second antenna maintained consistent satellite visibility, whereas the first experienced a pronounced decline in the number of observable satellites. Similarly, spoofing had no adverse effect on the second antenna, but the first suffered reduced satellite counts and positional accuracy. Additionally, the first antenna consistently underestimated the vehicle’s speed by approximately 5 km/h and exhibited a speed fluctuation of 0.5 m/s under interference conditions. 

How to cite: Karlitepe, F., Sezen, S., Velibasa, B. E., and Kabalci, A.: Advancements in Navigation Technology and Robustness Against GNSS Interference: A Comparative Analysis of CRPA , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12972, 2025.

EGU25-13099 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Performance of a new set of analytical corrections to planetary nutations: preliminary results and outlook 

Ahmed Zakarya Zerifi, José M Ferrándiz, Alberto Escapa, Tomás Baenas, Miguel A Juárez, Santiago Belda, and Maria Karbon

The need to improve Earth rotation theories and models in a consistent and accurate
manner is currently widely recognized. Several researchers and groups at different
institutions have been working on this problem using quite different approaches, either
from the theoretical or computational perspective.
A potential source of the loss of accuracy of celestial pole offsets can be due to the
mismodeling of the planetary component of the IAU2000 nutation series. In fact, as
recognized in Ferrándiz et al. (2018), this component is actually based on a rigid-Earth
solution and does not include the Oppolzer terms that are significantly affected by the
Earth non-rigidity.
Such hypothesis was showed to be realistic by adjusting directly the amplitudes of a
small number of nutation periods of strictly planetary origin that could be reasonably
well separated by analyzing the series of VLBI observations. The results provide
significant fittings and the WRMS was successfully decreased by amounts comparable
to those achieved with lunisolar amplitude rescaling. A further step in this direction
requires the consideration of theoretical developments for the amplitudes of the non-
rigid Earth planetary nutations.
In this contribution, we present preliminary results considering the analytical formulae
of such planetary amplitudes for a two-layer earth model including dissipation effects at
the core-mantle boundary and anelasticity, obtained from a Hamiltonian method. Their
performance is assessed using several series of VLBI observations, with satisfactory
results, and is placed in the general context of the improvement of the precession and
nutation models sought by the IAG and the IAU.
Acknowledgment. This research was supported partially by Spanish Projects PID2020-119383GB-I00 funded by
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033); SEJIGENT/2021/001, funded by
Generalitat Valenciana; and the European Union—NextGenerationEU (ZAMBRANO 21-04).

How to cite: Zerifi, A. Z., Ferrándiz, J. M., Escapa, A., Baenas, T., Juárez, M. A., Belda, S., and Karbon, M.: Performance of a new set of analytical corrections to planetary nutations: preliminary results and outlook, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13099, 2025.

EGU25-13415 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Decoding the signal of extreme weather events in the Azores archipelago using GNSS and atmospheric reanalysis products 

Nathra Ramrajvel, Dhiman Mondal, Pedro Elosegui, Scott Paine, Pedro Mateus, and Virgilio Mendes

The rapidly changing climate is amplifying both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in the Azores archipelago, Portugal. Understanding the underlying dynamics of these events is essential for effective mitigation. Atmospheric water vapor data derived from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and reanalysis outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model offer valuable tools for studying the behavior of weather fronts around the Atlantic Ocean environment of the Azores. This research aims to conduct a detailed comparison between GNSS-based measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data, such as those available from ERA/MERRA2, focusing on the detection of small-scale atmospheric structures with high temporal resolution. We utilize atmospheric reanalysis products to decode long-term trends in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in the Azores. We then apply statistical methods to identify consistencies and differences between these two approaches in capturing atmospheric water vapor patterns. By combining water-vapor estimates from both GNSS data and atmospheric reanalysis, we are able to characterize the dynamics of atmospheric turbulence from small (few meters) to large (few tens of kilometers) scales. 

How to cite: Ramrajvel, N., Mondal, D., Elosegui, P., Paine, S., Mateus, P., and Mendes, V.: Decoding the signal of extreme weather events in the Azores archipelago using GNSS and atmospheric reanalysis products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13415, 2025.

EGU25-13796 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Geology of the Isiro-Ngayu gold-bearing region, western belts of the Kibali granite-greenstone superterrane in the northeastern Congolese craton, Democratic Republic of Congo 

Didier Birimwiragi Namogo, Joseph Martial Akame, Mokili Mbuluyo, Vinciane Debaille, Arsène Lavie Mango Itulamya, and Aurélia Hubert-Ferrari

Abstract.

The Isiro and Ngayu belts in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are part of the Congo Craton and among the most poorly known Archean terrains worldwide. These belts consist of metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks surrounded or intruded by granitoid rocks. minimum age of deposition for the supracrustal formations is defined at ca 2633 Ma (e.g. Allibone et al., 2020), whereas the granitoids were dated between 3200 Ma and 2530 Ma (Allibone et al., 2020; Turnbull et al., 2021) and are strongly deformed with variable proportions of mafic enclaves at outcrop scale (Turnbull et al., 2021). Both Isiros and Ngayu belts host important gold deposits, but the genetic relationships between gold mineralization, deformation and the diverse host rocks remain ambiguous. In this context, the work we present here is part of a multidisciplinary approach, combining the processing of satellite images and field observations using GIS to map the structural lineament that may control gold mineralization in the region. The results show that the strains are large, marked by NW-SE lineaments at low angle to the belt strikes and combined with a secondary ENE-WSW brittle structure. The overall structural pattern, together with the existence of artisanal gold mining in the area, emphasizes that gold mineralization is largely controlled by structures localization along the greenstone belts.

Key words: Congo craton, gold mineralization, field observations, satellites images, structural lineaments.

Reference

Allibone, A., Vargas, C., Mwandale, E., Kwibisa, J., Jongens, R., Quick, S., Komarnisky, N., Fanning, M., Bird, P., MacKenzie, D., Turnbull, R., Holliday, J., 2020. Chapter 9: Orogenic Gold Deposits of the Kibali District, Neoarchean Moto Belt, Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, in: Sillitoe, R.H., Goldfarb, R.J., Robert, F., Simmons, S.F. (Eds.), Geology of the World’s Major Gold Deposits and Provinces. Society of Economic Geologists, p. 0. https://doi.org/10.5382/SP.23.09

Turnbull, R.E., Allibone, A.H., Matheys, F., Fanning, C.M., Kasereka, E., Kabete, J., McNaughton, N.J., Mwandale, E., Holliday, J., 2021. Geology and geochronology of the Archean plutonic rocks in the northeast Democratic Republic of Congo. Precambrian Research 358, 106133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.precamres.2021.106133

 

How to cite: Birimwiragi Namogo, D., Martial Akame, J., Mbuluyo, M., Debaille, V., Mango Itulamya, A. L., and Hubert-Ferrari, A.: Geology of the Isiro-Ngayu gold-bearing region, western belts of the Kibali granite-greenstone superterrane in the northeastern Congolese craton, Democratic Republic of Congo, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13796, 2025.

The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) provides essential support for the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) by operating a data and product archive for the main geodetic techniques.   As GGOS matures and grows, the CDDIS adopts the latest data practices to strengthen its support for the community and ensure quality products are available in a timely manner.  This poster explores the breadth of work done at the CDDIS and provides highlights of the latest developments including new data and product holdings, updates to provide clarity and usability for users, and updates on future works. Statistics on usage will also be provided.

How to cite: Woo, J.: The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) Updates for 2025, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13924, 2025.

Abstract

Urban surface dust and soils serve as a primary source and reservoir of metals that substantially impact human health and urban ecosystems. This study investigates the impact of metal contamination on urban surface soils from diverse land-use locations and their potential risk to human health in Jammu City, India. A total of fifteen surface soil samples were collected to evaluate the total metal concentration (As, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni and Zn), Contamination Factor (CF), Geo-accumulation Index (Igeo), Pollution Load Index (PLI), and Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI). The research findings of this study revealed significant variation in metal concentration. In comparison to Upper Continental Crust (UCC, taken as background here), the average concentration of Fe and Mn is lower across all locations, whereas As, Ni, Cu, and Zn are significantly higher over all locations. Elevated levels of Fe and Mn were observed higher near samples collected from industrial zones while Ni, As, Cu and Zn showed wider distribution throughout the study area. Apart from all metals, high As content was observed at near-construction and high-traffic interactions. Higher CF (CF > 6) and PLI values in surface soil samples revealed high contamination of As, Cu, Ni and Zn due to intensive industrial and vehicular emissions in the study area. Igeo values in surface soil samples indicated severe contamination of As, Cu, Ni and ZN in the study area, while Fe and Mn showed no contamination. PERI assessment in surface soil samples revealed extremely high ecological risk for As and Cu in Jammu City. Risk index values indicated that 40% of surface soil samples carried a very high risk (RI > 600) of metal contamination in the study area. The overall findings advised that industrial, transportation, and construction activities need to be improved to protect the region's environment and public health.

Keywords: Heavy metals, geo-accumulation index (IGeo), risk assessment, roadside dust.

How to cite: Gorka, R. and Kumar, R.: Spatial Distribution and Contamination Levels of Heavy Metals (Fe, Mn, Ni, Cu, As, and Zn) in Urban Topsoils of Jammu City, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14122, 2025.

EGU25-15238 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Real-time high-precision joint orbit determination of GPS and LEO using SRIF 

Wen Lai, Guanwen Huang, Le Wang, Haonan She, Shichao Xie, Wei Xie, and Qining Wang

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites have the advantages of high flight velocity and minimal influence from external environmental factors on onboard observation. Integrating LEO satellite observations with ground observations can improve the accuracy and convergence performance of GPS and LEO real-time orbit determination, which can simultaneously meet the prerequisites for real-time Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services for both GPS and LEO systems. Therefore, this study employs the Square Root Information Filter (SRIF) for GPS and LEO satellites real-time joint orbit determination (RTJOD). Based on observations from eight existing scientific LEO satellites, a detailed study on RTJOD was conducted under two scenarios: one using observations from 100 global stations and the other using observations from 9 regional stations in Australia. The results show that, with 100 global stations, incorporating LEO observations can significantly improve the convergence performance and GPS satellite orbit accuracy. The convergence times in the Along-track, Cross-track, and Radial components are reduced from 3.5, 5.8, and 10.3 h to 0.9, 1.0, and 10.3 h, respectively. The accuracy improves from 5.8, 3.6, and 2.8 to 4.0 cm, 2.5 cm, and 2.5 cm. Additionally, the ambiguity resolution (AR) performance is significantly enhanced. The time required to achieve a 90% narrow-lane ambiguity fixing rate is reduced from 4.9 to 0.7 h. After AR, the orbit accuracy further improves to 3.1 cm, 2.3 cm, and 2.4 cm. In the case of the 9 regional stations in Australia, after incorporating LEO, the orbit accuracy of the float solution after convergence is comparable to that of the 100 global stations without LEO, with accuracies of 6.0, 4.8, and 2.9 cm in the three components. It is important to note that, due to insufficient observations in this case, AR does not result in any further improvement in accuracy. In addition, LEO can achieve orbit determination accuracy better than 5 cm within a short time in both station distribution scenarios. This ensures that RTJOD enables LEO and GPS to generate high-precision real-time orbits simultaneously. Finally, the processing time for each epoch in all scenarios is less than 5 seconds, ensuring that the GPS and LEO RTJOD can provide timely orbit updates.

How to cite: Lai, W., Huang, G., Wang, L., She, H., Xie, S., Xie, W., and Wang, Q.: Real-time high-precision joint orbit determination of GPS and LEO using SRIF, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15238, 2025.

EGU25-15605 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Deep Learning Approaches for Zenith Total Delay Estimation 

Nihal Tekin Ünlütürk and Mehmet Bak

Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) is a crucial parameter for understanding the effects of atmospheric conditions on satellite signals, constituting a fundamental aspect of precision positioning and atmospheric modeling applications. Traditional methods for ZTD estimation, including GNSS observations, numerical weather prediction models, and interpolation techniques, encounter critical limitations such as generalization constraints, sparse data availability, insufficient spatial coverage, high computational costs, and limited adaptability to dynamic atmospheric changes. Deep learning techniques provide substantial benefits, including processing large and complex datasets, enabling dynamic modeling, and delivering rapid and accurate estimations.

This study integrates real-time GNSS observations with high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis data from the ERA5 dataset to develop deep learning-based methods for ZTD estimation. GNSS data were sourced from 17 IGS tropospheric stations strategically selected to represent diverse geographic and climatic conditions. These stations supplied ZTD values and their temporal variations at 5-minute intervals, spanning February 2023 to January 2024. ERA5 data, offering hourly atmospheric parameters, necessitated the alignment of GNSS temporal resolution with ERA5 for spatial modeling. The spatial distribution of GNSS data was optimized using interpolation techniques to enhance the quality of inputs for deep-learning models.

The findings highlight the potential of deep learning techniques to enhance ZTD estimation processes. Future research will focus on integrating additional datasets, such as InSAR, to achieve higher spatial resolution and improved accuracy. Moreover, advanced deep learning architectures, including attention mechanisms, will be investigated to refine estimation methods and broaden their applications in atmospheric and geospatial studies.

How to cite: Tekin Ünlütürk, N. and Bak, M.: Deep Learning Approaches for Zenith Total Delay Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15605, 2025.

EGU25-17154 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

GGOS IberAtlantic Affiliate: Bringing Geodesy Closer to Society across the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic region 

Esther Azcue and José Manuel Ferrándiz Leal and the GGOS IberAtlantic Governing Board

A Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) affiliate is an organization or entity that collaborates with the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) to enhance the global geodetic infrastructure and support the objectives of GGOS in a region.
With this goal, a GGOS affiliate was created to enhance geodetic infrastructure and scientific collaboration across the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic region. It is called GGOS IberAtlantic. This project focuses on improving the accuracy and reliability of geospatial data through the co-location and integration of geodetic space techniques to support various scientific and practical applications, including global reference frame maintenance, climate change monitoring, natural hazard assessment, in the perspective of a sustainable development. GGOS IberAtlantic aims to establish a robust network of geodetic stations, facilitate high-accuracy data collection, and promote international cooperation among geodetic institutions, contributing to a better understanding of Earth's dynamic processes. It is also focused on supporting decision-making in the area and bringing geodesy closer to society, specially to young scientists.
The upcoming presentation will outline the steps taken to establish the GGOS IberAtlantic group, as well as its future directions and objectives.

Acknowledgment. This presentation was supported partially by Spanish Project PID2020-119383GB-I00 funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033)

How to cite: Azcue, E. and Ferrándiz Leal, J. M. and the GGOS IberAtlantic Governing Board: GGOS IberAtlantic Affiliate: Bringing Geodesy Closer to Society across the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17154, 2025.

The neutral atmosphere that extending from the surface of earth to about 80 km overhead is the electrically neutral part (within a certain frequency band which GNSS signals fall) of the atmosphere. There is no doubt that neutral atmosphere has a delaying effect on transmitted radio waves. Spilker (1996) noted that the more precise term of this delaying effect is neutral atmosphere delay, even though this delaying effect has been traditionally referred to as just troposphere delay. At all events, the delaying effect has propagated into satellite observations, and we must deal with it appropriately in order to achieve precise satellite positioning results. There are many geodesists have been making their contributions to treatment of neutral atmosphere delay, and how to get satisfactory supports from numerical weather model data set is one of the efforts making to calibrate this delaying effect more precisely up-to-date. Currently, both Earth observation network and technology have great improvement, which results in wonderful increase of Earth observational data as well as the subsequent numerical weather model data set. Briefly speaking, numerical weather model data set which generally provided by different organizations and/or institutions is a global and/or regional gridded meteorological data set with specific temporal-spatial resolution. Generally, reanalysis data set and forecast data set are usually considered to be the two main data set representations, and they both provide two types of data level, i.e., three-dimensional pressure levels and two-dimensional surface level. The data set contains some usually used meteorological parameters, such as height, temperature, pressure, humidity. With these meteorological parameters, some main terms related to neutral atmosphere delay, such as hydrostatic/wet delay, gradient factors and mapping factors can all be calculated without any difficulty by using computing techniques like raytracing and interpolation. Undoubtedly, the performance of different types of data set that mentioned above in representing neutral atmosphere delay are not all the same. Definitely, some interesting and meaningful comparison results have found and widely propagated by many scholars. In this work, we put more emphasis on evaluation of the forecast data set from neutral atmosphere delay point of view, considering there is an objective fact that satellite positioning industry especially the (near) real-time positioning has vigorous development, in which the calibration of neutral atmosphere delay is required more and more accurate and timely-supported. Besides time-delayed reanalysis data set and time-advanced forecast data set, microwave radiometer data set and radiosonde data set are also employed. The first results show that empirical model such as UNB3 can only state the normal level of delaying effect and the obtained delay values are either larger or smaller; the pressure levels data set performs better than the surface level data set with very high proportion in time domain; even though reanalysis data set generally has good performance, forecast data set can work for the neutral atmosphere delay calibration with relatively satisfactory support in term of accuracy.

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42304010), the Youth Foundation of Changzhou Institute of Technology (E3-6207-21-060, 31020222007).

How to cite: Wang, M.: First results about evaluation of forecasted numerical weather model data set in view of neutral atmosphere delay, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17506, 2025.

EGU25-18280 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Real-Time ZTD correction grid based on augmented GNSS network for navigation services 

Antonio Basoni, Rosa Pacione, Leonardo Bagaglini, and Roberto Lanotte

Tropospheric refraction is one of the major error sources in satellite-based positioning. The delay of radio signals caused by the troposphere ranges from 2m at the zenith to 20m at low elevation angles, depending on pressure, temperature and humidity along the path of the signal transmission. If the delay is not properly modeled, positioning accuracy can degrade significantly. Empirical tropospheric models, with or without meteorological observations, are used to correct these delays but they are limited in accuracy and spatial resolution resulting in up to a few decimeters error in positioning solutions. The present availability of ground-based GNSS networks and the state of the art of GNSS processing techniques enable precise estimation of Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTD) with different latency ranging from real time to post-processing.
We present a method for computing ZTD residual fields interpolating, through Ordinary Kriging, the residuals between GNSS-derived and model-computed ZTD at continuously operating GNSS stations. GNSS ZTD estimates, obtained in real time and in PPP mode, are augmented by a multi-prediction model based on a Graph Neural Network model trained using one year of Near Real Time ZTD observations and a model using a polynomial plus harmonic interpolation. A combination strategy is defined to merge GNSS ZTD estimates at sites with the predicted values, where predicted ZTD values act as hole fillers for stations missing from the GNSS network at the current epoch. The residual ZTD field, obtained from PPP/prediction model and ZTD empirical model, is modelled as a random process and for each epoch a variogram is estimated and fitted to characterize the spatial correlation of the process. At a known user location, ZTD value is obtained as the sum of site interpolated ZTD residual and modeled-ZTD value. The algorithm is validated with respect to GNSS ZTD estimates provided by an external provider at a selection of sites not included in the network used to fed the computation. Details about validation and possible improvements will be provided.

How to cite: Basoni, A., Pacione, R., Bagaglini, L., and Lanotte, R.: Real-Time ZTD correction grid based on augmented GNSS network for navigation services, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18280, 2025.

The University of Luxembourg (UL), in collaboration with the United Kingdom Met Office, continues to advance the provision of global and regional near real-time (NRT) Zenith Total Delays (ZTDs) from GNSS ground networks to support operational meteorological products within the EUMETNET EIG GNSS Water Vapour Programme (E-GVAP). E-GVAP facilitates coordination and uptake of NRT GNSS-based atmospheric monitoring, which is indispensable for assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models across Europe, including at the Met Office, where high-temporal-resolution data enhance mesoscale weather forecasting. This study highlights the collaborative efforts of the Met Office and UL in delivering accurate, timely meteorological data from GNSS. The partnership has resulted in the development and enhancement of NRT processing systems using the state-of-the-art Bernese GNSS software version 5.4 (BSW5.4), generating ZTD products at both UL and the Met Office at 1-hour intervals globally and regionally, and at sub-hourly intervals regionally. Over the past year, UL has focused on developing hourly NRT ZTD solutions for global and regional networks, and more recently extending them to sub-hourly intervals (down to 15 minutes) for regional coverage, thereby refining the temporal resolution for E-GVAP users. In particular, we are now prepared to provide NRT products in the form of a global hourly product (ULGH), a regional hourly product (ULRH), and a regional sub-hourly product (ULRS) to E-GVAP. As part of the system's development, we validate our latest global, regional, and sub-hourly ZTD solutions against established NRT outputs from E-GVAP and benchmark post-processed Double-Difference Network (DDN) products, while also verifying Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) estimates against ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Finally, we highlight how higher-frequency updates can positively influence NWP assimilation in rapidly evolving weather situations, detailing data flow and latency management that ensure reliable NRT ZTD delivery to E-GVAP participants and the Met Office. By extending temporal coverage from hourly to sub-hourly in regional networks and continuing our global solutions, we advance the utility of GNSS-based atmospheric sensing for short-term weather forecasting, providing consistent, high-quality NRT GNSS products for meteorological operations in Europe and beyond. 

How to cite: Hunegnaw, A., Teferle, F., and Jones, J.: Extending Global and Regional Near Real-Time GNSS ZTD Solutions Using BSW5.4 at the University of Luxembourg: Contributions to E-GVAP , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18910, 2025.

EGU25-19802 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Scientific Legacy and Current Contributions of the Royal Institute and Observatory of the Spanish Navy: Impact on Geophysics, Geodesy, and other Scientific and Social Fields. 

David Rodriguez Collantes, Manuel Ángel Sánchez Piedra, Roberto Cabieces Díaz, and Julián Fiz Barreda

The Geophysics Section of the Royal Institute and Observatory of the Navy (ROA) is structured into three main services: Seismology, Geomagnetism, and Space Geodesy, in addition to an auxiliary Meteorology service and participation in maritime scientific campaigns. Since its foundation, the ROA has played a pioneering role in Spain, being a member of the Spanish Commission of Geodesy and Geophysics and collaborating with international institutions across all its fields of activity, such as ILRS, IGS, INTERMAGNET, and GEOFON, as well as organizations like NASA and ESA, among others.

The Geomagnetism Service, established in 1879, studies the Earth's magnetic field and its variations to conduct scientific research. After several relocations due to electromagnetic interference, the current geomagnetic observatory is located at Cortijo de Garrapilos (Cádiz) and has been a member of INTERMAGNET since 2006. The Seismology Service dates back to 1898, when one of the 12 seismographs of the first global seismic network, promoted by geologist John Milne, was installed at the ROA. The current infrastructure is distributed across Spain and North Africa, including a short-period network for regional seismicity in the Gulf of Cádiz and the Alboran Sea, long-period stations for global seismicity, and the international Western Mediterranean network, in which prestigious institutions such as UCM and GFZ participate. The ROA has been involved in space geodesy with artificial satellites since the early days of the space era, starting just one year after the launch of the first SPUTNIK (1958) with the Baker-Nunn camera. This technique was followed by laser ranging (SLR) in 1975, when a station capable of tracking collaborative satellites was installed. By 1980, the station was exclusively operated by ROA personnel. Since then, the station has undergone constant upgrades to maintain a high level of operability. Today, it contributes to national and international tracking networks such as ILRS-EUROLAS and EU SST-S3T. Additionally, the ROA adopted GPS in the 1980s for geodetic studies and currently manages a GNSS network comprising 17 permanent stations spanning the southern Iberian Peninsula and North Africa. Maritime campaigns include studies in the Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), with objectives such as hydrographic surveys and geophysical exploration for seabed characterization. Since 1987, the ROA has also participated in Antarctic campaigns.

The Geophysics Section of the ROA combines tradition and advanced technology to contribute to the understanding of the Earth and space, consolidating its position as a national and international benchmark in the study of geophysical and geodetic processes. Evidence of this includes recent or ongoing scientific work over the past years: four doctoral theses (three of them in progress), various articles in high-impact journals, participation in numerous scientific projects, and extensive contributions to conferences. In this way, the ROA, through the Geophysics Section, fosters collaboration in geodesy through its active participation in international networks, addressing global scientific and societal challenges with cutting-edge technology and a multidisciplinary approach.

How to cite: Rodriguez Collantes, D., Sánchez Piedra, M. Á., Cabieces Díaz, R., and Fiz Barreda, J.: Scientific Legacy and Current Contributions of the Royal Institute and Observatory of the Spanish Navy: Impact on Geophysics, Geodesy, and other Scientific and Social Fields., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19802, 2025.

EGU25-20077 | Posters virtual | VPS23

Influence of VLBI Network Geometry on the Estimation of Earth Orientation Parameters 

Lucía Daniela del Nido Herranz, Santiago Belda, Maria Karbon, José Manuel Ferrándiz, and Esther Azcue Infanzón

The accuracy and reliability of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) are significantly influenced by the geometric configuration of the Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) network. This astronomical technique employs a global network of radio telescopes to collect data. The distribution of VLBI antennas affects the triangulation process used to determine the positions of celestial sources, which is integral to the calculation of EOP. An optimal geometry yields more accurate and reliable EOP results, which are essential for many scientific applications.

This study examines the impact of different VLBI networks on EOP estimation, using data collected during several Continuous VLBI Campaigns (CONT) and designing alternative networks by removing various antennas and/or baselines from the original configuration. The results of this analysis aim to contribute to the refinement of EOP and the achievement of the stringent GGOS accuracy targets (i.e., a frame with accuracy at epoch of 1 mm or better and a stability of 0.1 mm/y).

How to cite: del Nido Herranz, L. D., Belda, S., Karbon, M., Ferrándiz, J. M., and Azcue Infanzón, E.: Influence of VLBI Network Geometry on the Estimation of Earth Orientation Parameters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20077, 2025.

EGU25-20320 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS23

Deep learning in RTM gravity field modeling: A case study over Wudalianchi area 

Meng Yang, baoyu Zhang, Lehan Wang, Wei Feng, and Min Zhong

The Residual Terrain Modeling (RTM) technique is commonly used to recover short-wavelength gravity field signals. However, classical gravity forward modeling methods for RTM gravity field determination face challenges such as series divergence, inefficient computation, and errors induced by tree canopy in Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). In this study, deep learning methods are employed to enhance the quality of the computed RTM gravity field. Experiments are conducted at the Wudalianchi airborne gravity gradiometer test site, which provides a large volume of precise gravity measurements. The Random Forest method is used to estimate and correct tree canopy height errors in DEMs. A fully connected deep neural network (FC-DNN) is introduced to efficiently calculate the RTM gravity field. Additionally, to improve the network’s generalization capability, a novel terrain information fusion regularization method is applied to create an Improved FC-DNN with a refined loss function. The accuracy, computational efficiency, and generalization performance of the deep learning method are evaluated and compared in the Wudalianchi volcanic region. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the accuracy of the RTM gravity field when based on tree canopy-corrected DEMs. The RTM gravity fields determined using both FC-DNN and Improved FC-DNN achieve mGal-level accuracy, with a remarkable 10,000-fold increase in computational efficiency compared to the classical Newtonian integration method. The Improved FC-DNN exhibits superior generalization, with accuracy enhancements ranging from 7% to 21% compared to the standard FC-DNN.

How to cite: Yang, M., Zhang, B., Wang, L., Feng, W., and Zhong, M.: Deep learning in RTM gravity field modeling: A case study over Wudalianchi area, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20320, 2025.

G1 – Geodetic Theory and Algorithms

Thanks to existing algorithms for Legendre functions, it is fairly possible to perform spherical harmonic transforms up to degrees as high as a few tens of thousands. In fact, many algorithms are often accurate even well beyond this point. From the practical point of view, however, hardware-related challenges emerge when the truncation degree exceeds, say, 100,000. For instance, to conduct a degree-100,000 spherical harmonic transform, be it forward or backward, it is necessary to store in memory about 75 GBs of spherical harmonic coefficients and about 149 GBs of the signal to be analyzed/synthesized at the Gauss--Legendre grid (with Driscoll--Healy grids, the signal-related memory even doubles). Although systems with that amount of shared memory are not rare, the point becomes clear when further extending harmonic degree to, say, 150,000 (168 GB + 335 GB) or beyond. With such extensive transforms, one has to sooner or later move to systems with distributed memory.

This contribution discusses the implementation of spherical harmonic transforms on distributed-memory systems in CHarm, which is a C/Python library for high-degree spherical harmonic transforms. To this end, CHarm employs the Message Passing Interface (MPI), allowing to distribute both the coefficients and the signal among a number of independent shared-memory systems that can communicate together. These could be, for instance, nodes of high-performance computing clusters or a few ordinary PCs interconnected via some network protocol (e.g., SSH). Since the computation of a signal at any point requires all spherical harmonic coefficients and vice versa, the amount of data transferred is immense. We show how this challenge is tackled in CHarm. Furthermore, we discuss how CHarm combines the MPI parallelization (between shared-memory systems), the OpenMP parallelization (within shared-memory systems) and the SIMD parallelization (within a single CPU core), all at the same time. As a toy example, some spherical harmonic transforms up to degree 100,000 and beyond are shown.

In Physical Geodesy, high-degree spherical harmonic transforms are useful, for instance, to model planetary topographies. More specifically, spherical harmonic degree 100,000 offers 200-meter spatial resolution on the Earth's surface. Systems with distributed memory thus make it feasible for spherical harmonics to capture fine details of the Earth's and other planetary topographies. As another use case, it is known that topography truncated at some finite non-zero harmonic degree generates gravitational field possessing an infinite number of spherical harmonics. Therefore, to accurately describe the gravitation field of, say, a degree-10,800 Earth's topography, the truncation degree of the implied potential series should generally be extended from 10,800 to degree as high as possible, say, 108,000 or so.

CHarm is free software available from https://github.com/blazej-bucha/charm. The documentation with cookbook-style examples can be found at https://www.charmlib.org.

This study was funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under the project No. 09I03-03-V04-00273.

How to cite: Bucha, B.: Spherical harmonic transforms up to degree 100,000 and beyond using distributed-memory systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-67, 2025.

EGU25-280 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.1

A forecasting framework for enhancing gravity variations of finer temporal scales. 

Dinuka Kankanige, Bramha Vishwakarma, Yi Liu, and Ashish Sharma

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has revolutionized our understanding of Earth’s mass redistribution. However, enhancing the utility of GRACE products remains challenging due to inherent trade-offs between the temporal and spatial resolution, constrained by the mission design. High autocorrelation at the first lag in geoid coefficient time series is a key feature that enables the development of improved forecasting frameworks. Building on this temporal persistence of gravity coefficients, we propose a predictive framework to characterize the relationship between monthly and finer temporal scale-uncertainties of geoid coefficients. The proposed method enables reducing the finer temporal scale-uncertainties to levels comparable with known monthly uncertainties within the ranges of higher spectral degrees. With reduced uncertainties of finer temporal scales for higher spherical harmonic degrees, this predictive framework sets the groundwork for enhancing the analyses of rapid mass variations in the context of regional hydrology.

How to cite: Kankanige, D., Vishwakarma, B., Liu, Y., and Sharma, A.: A forecasting framework for enhancing gravity variations of finer temporal scales., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-280, 2025.

EGU25-864 | ECS | Orals | G1.1

GRACE satellites and in-situ well data reveals that specific yield declines with depleting groundwater levels 

K Satish Kumar, Maya Raghunath Suryawanshi, Chethan Varadaganahalli Anandagowda, Balaram Shaw, Vandana Sukumaran, Aayushi Kochar, and Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma

Specific yield (Sy) is defined as the ratio of the volume of water that saturated rock or soil yields by gravity to the total volume of the rock or soil. Sy is often taken as a constant that when multiplied to groundwater level change provides water volume change, hence it is crucial in validating Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived groundwater changes, providing estimates of available groundwater resources, and in modelling groundwater aquifers. In this study, we used GRACE data and available quality-controlled in-situ well data to estimate Sy instead. Our hope was that it would match the available Sy, however we observed a time-varying Sy. Upon further investigation we found a negative correlation between water level and Sy. Hence the time-evolution of Sy was due to changes in the water level. We processed available well data and GRACE(-FO) in India, the United States, Europe, and Australia, spanning from January 2004 to December 2022. We also developed a general law/empirical relationship between Sy and groundwater level. All regional-specific empirical relationships exhibit a decrease in Sy as the average groundwater level depth drops, but the decay rate of Sy is notably faster in India (0.17 ± 0.04 m-1) compared to the United States (0.03 ± 0.01 m-1), Australia (0.06 ± 0.02 m-1), and European countries (0.04 ± 0.03 m-1). This empirical expression allows for the estimation of Sy based on readily available groundwater level data, thus supporting large-scale groundwater assessments and modelling efforts. At the global scale, a 50% decrease in Sy results in a groundwater level depletion of ~17 meters. However, in India, due to a faster decay rate, the same 50% reduction in Sy causes a groundwater level depletion of ~4 meters. This relationship can be utilized by hydrologists, water resource managers, and policymakers to predict Sy and assess changes in groundwater levels over time, aiding in more effective and sustainable water resource management.

How to cite: Kumar, K. S., Suryawanshi, M. R., Varadaganahalli Anandagowda, C., Shaw, B., Sukumaran, V., Kochar, A., and Vishwakarma, B. D.: GRACE satellites and in-situ well data reveals that specific yield declines with depleting groundwater levels, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-864, 2025.

EGU25-1820 | Posters on site | G1.1

Evaluating the Impact of Geoid Model Variations on Landslide Susceptibility: A Case Study in Taiwan's Mountainous Regions 

Kuan Hsiang Fang, Zhi Yi Yang, and Yu Shen Hsiao

Taiwan’s terrain is predominantly mountainous, with approximately 73% of its total land area classified as sloped terrain. The region is characterized by complex geological conditions, short yet steep and fast-flowing rivers, and a high susceptibility to natural disasters. During the summer and autumn seasons, typhoons and heavy rainfall frequently trigger landslides in mountainous areas, posing significant risks to infrastructure and communities. While numerous studies have investigated landslide susceptibility in this region, few have examined the impact of different geoid models on these analyses. In Taiwan, geoid models are periodically updated, and these changes can influence key analytical factors in landslide susceptibility assessments, potentially affecting the outcomes. This study utilizes high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) based on various global geoid models, such as EGM96 and EGM2008, as well as regional geoid models like TWGEOID2014, TWGEOID2023, and TWGEOID2024, to assess their influence on landslide susceptibility. This study focuses on the mountainous areas of central Taiwan, which also exhibit the largest differences in geoid models. Logistic regression analysis is performed using IBM SPSS statistics software, incorporating terrain factors such as aspect, slope, curvature, relief, and roughness to evaluate landslide susceptibility. Landslide susceptibility maps and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are generated for each geoid model and compared to assess their differences. The findings of this research aim to improve the precision of disaster prediction and provide valuable insights for disaster prevention efforts, soil and water conservation, and integrated risk management strategies. Additionally, this study highlights the importance of geoid model selection in geospatial analyses and its broader implications for environmental and engineering applications.

How to cite: Fang, K. H., Yang, Z. Y., and Hsiao, Y. S.: Evaluating the Impact of Geoid Model Variations on Landslide Susceptibility: A Case Study in Taiwan's Mountainous Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1820, 2025.

EGU25-2012 | ECS | Orals | G1.1

Earth’s Tidal Response for Maxwell, Burgers, Andrade and Sundberg-Cooper rheological models of the mantle  

thiziri saad, Severine Rosat, and Jean-Paul Boy

Tidal forces represent a significant external influence on Earth's deformation and have been extensively studied, beginning with Lord Kelvin (W. Thomson, 1862), who first calculated the elastic deformation of a homogeneous, incompressible Earth under tidal forces. Later, Love (1911) extended this work by developing a formalism for a compressible, homogeneous, spherical, non-rotating elastic isotropic Earth (SNREI), introducing the concept of Love numbers to describe tidal effects through dimensionless parameters. The Earth's visco-elastic deformation due to tidal forces is typically modeled using Maxwell, and less frequently, Burgers rheologies in the mantle. In this work, we perform a comparative analysis of four major rheological models—Maxwell, Burgers, Andrade, and Sundberg-Cooper—to evaluate their efficacy in describing Earth's rheological behavior. While Andrade and Sundberg-Cooper models are rarely applied to Earth, they have demonstrated effectiveness in modeling the visco-elastic tidal response of planetary bodies and satellites. We have developed theoretical responses for each of these models from seismic frequencies to very long periods. We first compare the advanced Andrade (1910) and Sundberg-Cooper (2010) models with the more traditional Maxwell and Burgers models. We then focus on tidal responses by comparing predicted gravimetric factors for these models with those observed from long-term gravimetric data collected by superconducting gravimeters within the IGETS (International Geodynamics and Earth Tide Service) network and by SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging).

How to cite: saad, T., Rosat, S., and Boy, J.-P.: Earth’s Tidal Response for Maxwell, Burgers, Andrade and Sundberg-Cooper rheological models of the mantle , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2012, 2025.

In this work we present a new method of determining the disturbing potential T and its functionals without using the Laplace equation.

The first step of this method is to solve two Dirichlet boundary value problems on the surface of the geoid related to a new partial differential equation (created by the author) named as G – modified Helmholtz equation. The solutions are formed after spherical approximation and describe gravity anomaly Δg and gravity disturbance δg as series of spherical harmonics.

In the second step we determine the disturbing potential T as a solution of a Dirichlet boundary value problem on the same boundary surface related to a very simple partial differential equation. Its Dirichlet boundary condition is formed with the aid of gravity anomaly, gravity disturbance and the fundamental boundary condition in spherical approximation. The solution is expressed as a series of spherical harmonics. As an epilogue to this work we present some new formulae for normal gravity γ, gravity g, vertical gradient of gravity, and mean curvature for actual equipotential surfaces as series of spherical harmonics.

The difference between known spherical harmonics and the introduced spherical harmonics is that the latter has the polar distance r in irrational powers. The advantage of this method is the simple determination of gravity anomaly, gravity disturbance and disturbing potential since it involves only Dirichlet boundary value problems. Finally this method shows that the determination of gravity anomaly and gravity disturbance can be made without determining the disturbing potential.

How to cite: Manoussakis, G.: Determination of the Earth’s disturbing potential and its functionals as series of spherical harmonics, without using the Laplace equation. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2088, 2025.

EGU25-2128 | Posters on site | G1.1

Assessing the Influence of DEM and DBM Accuracy on Geoid Modeling at the Land-Sea Interface: A Case Study in Eastern Taiwan 

Zhi Yi Yang, Kuan-Hsiang Fang, and Yu-Shen Hsiao

In regions with complex terrain, terrain correction is essential for accurately computing geoid undulations. The accuracy of Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), which include both terrestrial and marine datasets, has a significant impact on terrain correction and geoid modeling. One striking example is the coastal region of Hualien in eastern Taiwan, located at the land-sea boundary. This area is renowned for its dramatic topographical shifts, where elevations plummet from over 2000 meters above sea level to ocean depths exceeding 2000 meters within just a few kilometers. This study evaluates the effects of various global and regional Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and Digital Bathymetric Models (DBMs) on geoid modeling in Hualien. The geoid modeling strategy utilizes a remove-restore approach, combining global geopotential models, local gravity observations, and high-resolution DEMs and DBMs. Particular attention is given to the accuracy of these DEMs and DBMs at the critical land-sea interface, where topographic variations are most pronounced. To validate the results, we compare them against high-resolution satellite imagery and the Global Self-consistent, Hierarchical, High-resolution Geography Database (GSHHG) coastline data. Additionally, geoid models derived from different DEM-DBM combinations are assessed using high-precision GNSS-leveling geometric geoid observations at multiple locations within the study area. The primary aim of this research is to improve terrain correction accuracy in areas with complex topography along land-sea boundaries, ultimately enhancing the precision and reliability of geoid modeling results.

How to cite: Yang, Z. Y., Fang, K.-H., and Hsiao, Y.-S.: Assessing the Influence of DEM and DBM Accuracy on Geoid Modeling at the Land-Sea Interface: A Case Study in Eastern Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2128, 2025.

EGU25-2581 | Orals | G1.1

Determination of Earth’s gravity field parameters based on orbit perturbations – theoretical approach 

Krzysztof Sośnica, Radosław Zajdel, Joanna Najder, Tomasz Kur, and Filip Gałdyn

Earth’s gravity field parameters can be derived from the perturbations of Keplerian orbit parameters. For example, even-degree zonal harmonics cause secular rates of the right ascension of the ascending node, whereas odd-degree zonal harmonics cause long-term periodic perturbations of the argument of perigee. The observations of changes in these Keplerian parameters can be used to derive Earth’s potential parameters. We investigate the relationship between the orbit perturbations as a function of the satellite height, inclination angle, and eccentricity to find optimum orbit parameters for the gravity field recovery which maximize the orbit perturbations. We employ the Kaula theorem of orbit perturbations based on the expansion of the gravity potential into trigonometric series and derive inclination F(i) and eccentricity functions G(e) for zonal even and odd-degree spherical harmonics. We also employ the satellite visibility function to find the optimum satellite height for the recovery of the global gravitational constant product GM, degree-1 spherical harmonics corresponding to the geocenter motion, Earth’s oblateness term C20, and other low-degree harmonics.

We found that the optimum heights of satellites for GM, geocenter, and degree-2 are in the areas where no geodetic satellites currently are; i.e., between 1700 and 3500 km. The best inclination angles for the even-degree harmonic recovery are in the range of 20-40 degrees for prograde or 140-160 degrees for retrograde orbits. The best separability of odd-degree harmonics is for critical inclinations (63.4, 116.6 deg) or high eccentricities. C30 can be well determined from a satellite at the inclination of 40 or 140 degrees at the height of 1400 km. To support future GRACE/MAGIC missions with C20 and C30, the best inclination would be about 40 or 140 degrees with a height of about 1500-1700 km.  Finally, the best height for superior geocenter recovery and determination of the gravitational constant is about 2300 – 3500 km, which is in between the LAGEOS-1/2&LARES-2 height (5800 km) and LARES-1&Ajisai height (1500 km).

How to cite: Sośnica, K., Zajdel, R., Najder, J., Kur, T., and Gałdyn, F.: Determination of Earth’s gravity field parameters based on orbit perturbations – theoretical approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2581, 2025.

Marine gravity anomalies arise from the interaction between seafloor topography and the isostatic adjustment of the lithosphere. The admittance function quantifies the ability to transform seafloor topography into gravity anomalies. By developing various admittance function models, the connection between lithospheric response-induced gravity anomalies and seafloor topography is established, facilitating the inversion of seafloor topography from marine gravity anomalies. Addressing the various geophysical parameters involved in the admittance function approach, this study used the CRUST1.0 model as a priori data and proposed the Moving Windows Admittance Technique, adopting a 40 km moving step and 600 km × 600 km window to invert an effective elastic thickness model at a resolution of 5′×5′. The “remove-restore” technique was also incorporated to enhance accuracy. In the Mariana Trench region, the study revealed that the trench-arc-basin system exhibits anomalously low lithospheric strength (effective elastic thickness around 2 km), whereas the subducting plate demonstrates greater strength. The constructed seafloor topography model was verified with shipborne bathymetric data, demonstrating accuracy comparable to the DTU18 model and outperforming the SIO V23.1 model (about 36.5% improvement). These findings highlight that optimizing geophysical parameters significantly enhances the accuracy of seafloor topography inversion, providing critical insights for future oceanic research.

How to cite: Shen, R. and Zou, X.: Advances in Seafloor Topography Inversion: Integrating Admittance Functions and Geophysical Parameter Optimization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2645, 2025.

EGU25-2861 | Posters on site | G1.1

Lunar crustal density estimate from the GRAIL and LOLA-based global gravitational field models 

Michal Šprlák and Vít Perkner

We use data from the GRAIL and LRO satellite missions to estimate the horizontally varying density of the lunar crust. We determine the density model by parametrising the density using spherical harmonic functions up to degree 400. The density estimate depends on the difference between the data from the global gravitational field model generated by the topography measured by the LOLA sensor and the data from the GL1500E global gravitational field model derived from the GRAIL mission. To reduce the numerical complexity of the calculations, we approximate the topography by a sphere and test the sensitivity of the density estimates to the size of the spherical radius. We further calculate a global gravitational field model generated by the estimated horizontally varying density and the LOLA topography. We analyse the results by admittance, correlation, and Bouguer fields for degrees 150-600. The highest agreement with the input data is obtained for the approximating sphere identical to its Brillouin counterpart. Overall, the horizontally varying density model provides a more realistic gravitational field than the one from the constant crustal density. The advantages of the applied approach lie in the speed of calculation, low requirements on hardware, and ease of implementation.

How to cite: Šprlák, M. and Perkner, V.: Lunar crustal density estimate from the GRAIL and LOLA-based global gravitational field models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2861, 2025.

EGU25-4198 | Posters on site | G1.1

Geodetic monitoring of surface deformation for mitigating induced seismicity in Bavarian geothermal operations 

Yuliia Semenova, Manuela Seitz, Mathis Bloßfeld, and Florian Seitz

Geothermal energy is a significant source of clean, renewable energy, and the Bavarian Molasse Basin demonstrates exceptional potential for its development. Over the past two decades, the region has made remarkable progress in harnessing geothermal energy. Between 1998 and 2021, a total of 30 deep geothermal energy projects were implemented in Bavaria, with 24 systems currently in operation.  Munich is a leader among European cities in utilizing centralized geothermal systems, with plans to fully cover the city’s energy needs through geothermal resources by 2040.

However, the operation of geothermal power plants can induce seismic activity and alter the stress-strain state of the subsurface, posing potential threats to the environment and population. Induced seismicity is a key issue for geothermal projects worldwide, where its occurrence has caused significant delays in development and, in some cases, damage to buildings and infrastructure.

To evaluate the impact of geothermal activity on surface deformation, we processed a dense network of Sentinel-1 interferograms (2018-2021) using Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) InSAR time-series analysis through NASA's Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF) OpenSARLab. This approach enabled us to generate high-precision cumulative displacement and velocity maps across Munich and its surrounding areas over the three-year period.

Our analysis revealed localized ground uplift throughout the region, with pronounced deformation rates near certain geothermal plants, in some cases reaching a few cm/year. These uplift patterns appear to correlate with geothermal operations, particularly reservoir pressure changes and fluid reinjection.  In contrast, areas of subsidence, observed away from geothermal sites, appear to result from natural geological processes such as sediment compaction, groundwater extraction, and karstification.

These findings are vital for seismic hazard assessments, as surface deformation is closely tied to induced seismicity in geothermal environments. The study underscores the importance of advanced geodetic monitoring techniques, such as InSAR, for evaluating seismic risks and ensuring the sustainable development of geothermal energy resources.

How to cite: Semenova, Y., Seitz, M., Bloßfeld, M., and Seitz, F.: Geodetic monitoring of surface deformation for mitigating induced seismicity in Bavarian geothermal operations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4198, 2025.

The spectral combination method or technique encompasses all procedures to combine heterogeneous datasets by spectral weights, which depend on spherical harmonic degree n. This method was developed primarily to combine a global geopotential model (GGM) with terrestrial gravity data that is transformed into the gravity potential by integral formulas. Later, this method was extended to combine solutions to boundary-value problems (BVPs). The spectral combination method is based on the stochastic characteristics of measured gravity data, i.e., their signal and error degree-order variances. This technique represents the integral transform, in which the integral kernel is modified by spectral weights determined by the least-squares method.

So far, the spectral combination method has been applied only to solutions to spherical BVPs. In this contribution, we extend this method to solutions of vertical and horizontal spheroidal BVPs. Solutions of vertical and horizontal spheroidal BVPs for the gravitational potential have been presented by (Šprlák and Tangdamrongsub, 2018). Here, we derive corresponding solutions of vertical and horizontal spheroidal BVPs for first-, second- and third-order directional derivatives. Secondly, we derive the spectral weights for the corresponding solutions of vertical and horizontal spheroidal BVPs. Finally, we check the numerical correctness of the derived solutions of vertical and horizontal spheroidal BVPs and spectral weights in a closed-loop test with data from GGM.       

How to cite: Pitonak, M., Belinger, J., Novak, P., and Sprlak, M.: Downward continuation of the gravitational gradient components to gravitational field quantities by spheroidal spectral combination technique, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4271, 2025.

In recent years, the number of space objects has been increasing rapidly. It has become crucial to utilize multi-source information fusion techniques for the orbit measurement and cataloguing of numerous objects. This report elaborates on the utilization of ground-based radar, optical, and space-based optical measurements in joint precision orbit determination. Regarding the real-time surveillance of a vast amount of space debris, investigations have been conducted concerning the initial orbit determination upon the first detection of targets, data association, orbit refinement, and the generation of catalogued orbital elements.Space-based technologies assume a particularly crucial role owing to their remarkable advantages in temporal and spatial coverage. To fulfill the data processing requisites for orbit determination of space-based measurement platforms, the onboard GNSS precision orbit determination software, SODA, has been developed, attaining centimeter-level accuracy in orbit determination. In the scenario of long-arc tracking via ground single-station astronomical optical cameras, an orbit determination accuracy within the range of several tens of meters can be accomplished. In the situation where multiple satellites are equipped with optical cameras, a substantial enhancement in the monitoring performance of space debris can be achieved both temporally and spatially.

How to cite: Yezhi, S.: Integrated Space-Based and Ground-Based Space Debris Orbit Determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4408, 2025.

EGU25-4725 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.1

Adjustment of a large number of measurements in steps 

Jason Koci and Georgios Panou

The least-squares method is commonly utilized to address data processing problems. The "adjustment in steps" technique is used in this study to optimize the "adjustment of measurements only" method. We use an initial set of condition equations of a mathematical model, to compute the initial best estimates of a given set of measurements. Subsequently, we may add or remove conditions from either the same model or a new form of it. The final solution is produced by revising the initial estimations of the measurements without applying the adjustment procedure to the entire system of condition equations. This technique is generalized in several steps. Each stage involves revising measurement estimates. The splitting of the solution system into steps simplifies the adjustment procedure because each step includes the multiplication and inversion of smaller matrices than those used for the complete system. Furthermore, the efficiency of this technique as a function of the number of steps taken is examined. The smallest amount of computations required to handle a large number of measurements yields the best solution. Finally, nonlinear condition equations are investigated. Numerical experiments are used to validate the theoretical concepts.

How to cite: Koci, J. and Panou, G.: Adjustment of a large number of measurements in steps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4725, 2025.

EGU25-4804 | Posters on site | G1.1

Modelling time variations of global gravity field by the finite element method 

Zuzana Minarechová, Marek Macák, Barbora Korekáčová, and Róbert Čunderlík

In our research, we propose a novel numerical approach based on the finite element method applied for modelling time variations of global Earth’s gravity field in the space domain. As input data we use the GRACE-FO satellite gravity data which are prolonged and filtered on the Earth's surface, while the Earth's surface is determined by digital elevation model on lands and mean sea surface obtained by satellite altimetry. Then the surface gravity disturbances on the Earth's surface serve as the boundary condition for the geodetic boundary value problem. Away from the Earth we involve the so-called mapped infinite elements which naturally prescribe the regularity of the disturbing potential at infinity. Afterwards, the obtained solution is determined at every moment when new input data is applied. In this way, we dynamically determine the Earth's gravity field on and above the Earth's topography.

How to cite: Minarechová, Z., Macák, M., Korekáčová, B., and Čunderlík, R.: Modelling time variations of global gravity field by the finite element method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4804, 2025.

EGU25-4830 | Posters on site | G1.1

Application of the finite element method to the modelling of the gravitational field of asteroids 

Marek Macák and Zuzana Minarechová

The poster discusses the solution of the Poisson equation for the gravitational potential of irregularly shaped bodies by the finite element method (FEM) in ANSYS software. The aim of this research is to study whether the FEM can overcome the limitations of the spherical-harmonic-based approaches, namely their divergence in the vicinity of the gravitating body. The objects of investigation are three asteroids: 433 Eros, 25143 Itokawa and 101955 Bennu. The computational domain is a sphere with a radius 10 times larger than the average radius of the selected asteroid, at the origin of which the given asteroid is located. The input to the computation is the density of the asteroids, while outside the asteroid zero density is considered. The output is the gravitational potential and gravitational acceleration in the vicinity of the asteroids. The results of the computations are compared with the solutions by the spherical and spheroidal harmonic-based approaches.

How to cite: Macák, M. and Minarechová, Z.: Application of the finite element method to the modelling of the gravitational field of asteroids, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4830, 2025.

EGU25-5583 | Posters on site | G1.1

Optimized formulas of the gravitational field of a vertical cylindrical prism 

Xiao-Le Deng, Nico Sneeuw, and Dimitrios Tsoulis

Modeling the gravitational effects of the topography and other layers of the Earth’s interior is one of the fundamental topics in geodesy and geophysics. Previous formulas of the Gravitational Potential (GP), Gravitational Vector (GV), and Gravitational Gradient Tensor (GGT) of a vertical cylindrical prism were derived from complex conversion relations and were relatively complicated. In this contribution, we derive the optimized formulas through a particular geometrical relation between the computation point and integration point, which are consistent with the previous expressions. The analytical formulas of the GP, GV, and GGT of a cylindrical shell are presented when the computation point is located on the polar axis. Based on these formulas, a cylindrical shell benchmark is put forward to evaluate the numerical properties of the cylindrical prism, that is, to discretize a whole cylindrical shell into cylindrical prisms. Beyond the improved simplicity, our optimized formulas with a second-order 3D Taylor series expansion help to save computation time (particularly for the GGT up to 20%). Numerical results reveal that when the computation point's vertical distance changes, the relative and absolute errors are symmetric with respect to the center vertical distance of the cylindrical shell. Accompanying codes in Python for a vertical cylindrical prism and a cylindrical shell are provided at https://www.github.com/xiaoledeng/optimized-formulas-of-gp-gv-ggt.

How to cite: Deng, X.-L., Sneeuw, N., and Tsoulis, D.: Optimized formulas of the gravitational field of a vertical cylindrical prism, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5583, 2025.

EGU25-5601 | Posters on site | G1.1

3D high-resolution numerical modelling of altimetry-derived marine gravity data using FEM 

Robert Čunderlík, Marek Macák, Michal Kollár, Zuzana Minarechová, and Karol Mikula

We present 3D numerical modelling of the altimetry-derived marine gravity data with the high horizontal resolution 1 x 1 arc min. The finite volume method (FVM) as a numerical method is used to solve the altimetry-gravimetry boundary-value problem. Large-scale parallel computations result in disturbing potential in every finite volume of the discretized 3D computational domain between an ellipsoidal approximation of the Earth’s surface and upper boundary chosen at altitude of 200 km. Afterwards, the first, second or third derivatives of the disturbing potential in different directions are numerically derived using the finite differences. A process of preparing the Dirichlet boundary conditions over ocean/seas has a crucial impact on achieved accuracy. It is based on nonlinear filtering of the geopotential generated on a mean sea surface (MSS) from a GRACE/GOCE-based satellite-only global geopotential model.

   We present different types of the altimetry-derived marine gravity data obtained on the DTU21_MSS as well as at higher altitudes of the 3D computational domain. The altimetry-derived gravity disturbances on the DTU21_MSS are tested by shipborne gravimetry and compared with those from the recent datasets like DTU21_GRAV or SS_v31.1. The obtained altimetry-derived gravity disturbances at higher altitudes are compared with airborne gravity data from the GRAV-D campaign in US. The gravity disturbing gradients as the second derivates or the third derivatives are provided with the same high resolution on the DTU21_MSS as well as at different altitudes.

How to cite: Čunderlík, R., Macák, M., Kollár, M., Minarechová, Z., and Mikula, K.: 3D high-resolution numerical modelling of altimetry-derived marine gravity data using FEM, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5601, 2025.

EGU25-5919 | Posters on site | G1.1

New formulation for the normal gravity field 

Georgios Panou and Urs Marti

The gravity field of a level oblate spheroid is formulated in this study using various coordinate systems. From the viewpoint of physical characteristics, it is assumed that this ellipsoid of revolution encloses mass, rotates with constant angular velocity and is a level (or equipotential) surface of its own gravity field. First, a spheroidal coordinate system and spheroidal harmonics are introduced. An exterior Dirichlet boundary-value problem is solved to determine the gravitational potential. As a result, the gravity potential is calculated completely and uniquely outside of the ellipsoid. Its closed form is then given in Cartesian, spherical, and geodetic coordinates. The gravity vector is calculated from the gravity potential in the exterior space and on the surface of the level ellipsoid. Additionally, the classical theorems of Clairaut, Pizzetti, and Somigliana are presented. Second, because the Earth's ellipsoid deviates slightly from a sphere, series expansions in terms of eccentricities for the normal gravity field are provided. Finally, the field is expanded in terms of spherical harmonics, which are useful for interpretations and calculations.

How to cite: Panou, G. and Marti, U.: New formulation for the normal gravity field, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5919, 2025.

EGU25-6301 | Posters on site | G1.1

Optimal gravity reduction when anomalous potential is known 

Viktor Popadyev and Dergileva Alena

Knowledge of the potential difference (altitude above sea level Hγ) or spatial position (ellipsoidal height H) at the measurement point leads to two main types of free-air gravity reduction: anomalies Δg and disturbances δg.
This gives rise to geodetic boundary problems of determining the external anomalous potential T or its transformants (on the Earth's boundary surface S and beyond it), which are solved, in particular, using a family of functions orthogonal on a geometrically regular surface maximally close to the boundary surface (a sphere Ω or an oblate ellipsoid); in a more general case, the apparatus of integral equations should be used (for example, with respect to the density of a simple layer φ, which explains the external anomalous field).
When the anomalous potential is found from the solution of one boundary value problem, it is possible to transform it to a gravity reduction corresponding to another boundary value problem.

In modern conditions, a situation is theoretically and practically possible when both the normal Hγ and geodetic H heights are known, thus, the anomalous potential T itself at a point on the Earth's surface is considered known, the accuracy of its calculation in a linear measure is limited by the accuracy of knowledge of the heights (the first centimeters).
Further, calculations of the elements of the anomalous field can be formally performed based on the solution of the first boundary value problem, but an increase in the order of the derivative of the anomalous potential leads to a loss of accuracy during the next differentiation.
Therefore, as initial data, it is better to have such a derivative whose order is as close as possible to the desired value, so that the relevance of gravity measurements does not decrease.

As a result of such measurements complex, it is possible to calculate separately the Δg and δg.
It is generally believed that calculations using δg lead to a more accurate result due to the known boundary surface (although using the potential difference instead of the spatial position is more justified from a physical point of view).
But which type of gravity reduction would be optimal?

Solution of the geodetic boundary value problem for determining the anomalous potential T at an external point P has a very simple form in the spherical approximation if we introduce a special gravity reduction Πg with the corresponding boundary condition on the Earth's surface S:

The integration kernel 2/r is convenient because it does not contain the natural logarithm.

It is of interest to derive a more accurate boundary condition taking into account Earth's flattening.

Also, in spherical approximation, one can obtain an integral equation (*), which is significantly simpler than the integral equations (**) and (***):

The simplicity of such a gravity reduction was first noted by L.P.Pellinen and O.M.Ostach in their article on some topographic gravity anomalies. See: Stud Geophys Geod 18, 319–328 (1974), https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01627186

How to cite: Popadyev, V. and Alena, D.: Optimal gravity reduction when anomalous potential is known, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6301, 2025.

EGU25-6382 | Posters on site | G1.1

Gross Errors Detection for the African Gravity Database 

Hussein Abd-Elmotaal and Norbert Kühtreiber

To establish the gravity database for the African geoid, it is needed to remove the blunders from the available gravity data set. As the available gravity data for Africa is very limited, including large data gaps, the gross errors detection technique should be smart enough to eliminate only the real blunders. A smart gross error detection technique has been adopted. It is based on the least squares prediction algorithm. The technique works first to estimate the gravity value at the data station using other values than the current data point. It thus compares the estimated value to the data value for possible blunder detection. Hence the technique measures the influence of removing the data value of a current point on the neighbourhood stations. Only if the value of a certain station proves to be blunder, it is then removed from the data base. Another effective technique to estimate the blunder in the gravity database of Africa is designed using the Artificial Intelligence. The results of both gross errors detection techniques are compared and analyzed in order to give a proper judge on both algorithms.

How to cite: Abd-Elmotaal, H. and Kühtreiber, N.: Gross Errors Detection for the African Gravity Database, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6382, 2025.

EGU25-7740 | Posters on site | G1.1

Enhancing Sea Surface Height Monitoring and Depth Datum Assessment Using GNSS/IMU Buoy Systems: A Case Study of Taiwan 

Chung-Yen Kuo, Wen-Hau Lan, Chi-Ming Lee, Huan-Chin Kao, and Tzu-Pang Tseng

Accurate monitoring of sea level variations is crucial for understanding climate change impacts and supporting coastal management. However, traditional methods like tide gauges and satellite altimetry face limitations in coverage and precision. This research explores the capabilities of GNSS/IMU buoy systems for enhancing sea surface height measurements and depth datum assessments. By deploying GNSS/IMU buoys near 34 tide gauge stations across Taiwan, a comparative analysis was conducted to examine the reliability and precision of these innovative tools against conventional tide gauge data. Utilizing advanced loosely coupled GNSS/IMU integration of GNSS and IMU data, the study achieves centimeter-level accuracy in dynamic marine conditions. Results reveal that while most tide gauges are consistent with the buoy data, significant discrepancies are observed at a few stations, particularly in subsidence areas and offshore islands. This study underscores the potential of GNSS/IMU buoy systems as a cost-effective and flexible solution to complement tide gauges, especially in regions affected by vertical land motion. The findings advocate for broader adoption of GNSS/IMU technologies to improve coastal and offshore hydrographic observations under changing environmental conditions.

How to cite: Kuo, C.-Y., Lan, W.-H., Lee, C.-M., Kao, H.-C., and Tseng, T.-P.: Enhancing Sea Surface Height Monitoring and Depth Datum Assessment Using GNSS/IMU Buoy Systems: A Case Study of Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7740, 2025.

EGU25-7936 | Orals | G1.1

Concept of computerized accelerometers 

Peiliang Xu

Accelerometers have been widely used in almost every area of science and engineering. They are supposed to be physical instruments for measuring the acceleration of a moving object. Although huge technological advance is made in hardware of accelerometers over more than one century, accelerometers have been persistently designed and fabricated mechanically under the framework of forward problems of damped mass–spring systems. We show that accelerometers are essentially inverse ill-posed source problems from the mathematical point of view, implying that small measurement errors of equivalent displacements are inherently amplified significantly such that accelerations output from accelerometers can become extremely noisy, numerically incorrect and physically meaningless. The ill-posedness of accelerometers has been always implicitly circumvented approximately for more than one century. As a result, accelerometers theoretically can only produce approximate outputs of acceleration. Here we present the concept of computerized accelerometers, because inverse ill-posed problems, as in the case of accelerometers, cannot be rigorously solved mechanically. The acceleration can only rigorously be reconstructed computationally as a regularized solution to the inverse ill-posed source problem of acceleration from equivalent displacements. The concept of computerized accelerometers theoretically warrants precise measurement of acceleration without approximation, is valid for nonlinear time-dependent damping as well and provides a turning point for accelerometers to become a fully rigorous computerized physical instrument. Simulated examples have confirmed that least squares reconstruction of acceleration can be too extremely noisy to be physically meaningful and shown that elastic acceleration is incorrect by more than 100%.

How to cite: Xu, P.: Concept of computerized accelerometers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7936, 2025.

EGU25-8240 | Orals | G1.1

Genesis: A Unique Space Geodetic Observatory 

Gaia Fusco, Sara Gidlund, Pierre Waller, Catherine Morlet, Franco Perez Lissi, Evelina Sakalauskaite, Werner Enderle, Erik Schoenemann, Jean-Christophe Berton, Francesco Gini, and Vicente Navarro

Genesis is an ESA-approved mission dedicated to GNSS Science conducted by the ESA Navigation Directorate. Its primary objective is the contribution to the improvement of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) accuracy (1mm) and long-term stability (0.1mm/year). Secondary objectives include the contribution to a high number of other scientific disciplines (geodesy, geodynamics, earth rotation, geophysics, earth gravity field, atmosphere and ionosphere sciences, metrology, relativity…) [1].

The Genesis Space Segment includes a single spacecraft in MEO (6000km altitude, 95° inclination) co-locating for the first time in space the four geodetic instruments used for the realisation of ITRF: a GNSS receiver, an SLR reflector, a VLBI transmitter and a DORIS receiver. The Ground Segment is composed of a Mission Control Centre (including Ground Station) and will make use of the existing ground infrastructure, operated by the Scientific Community: GNSS sensor stations network, SLR stations, VLBI antennas and DORIS beacons. The scientific mission data will be processed, archived, and distributed by ESA’s Data PROcessing, Archiving and Delivery facility (PROAD), under the responsibility of the Navigation Support Office and the GNSS Science Support Centre, in close collaboration with the scientific community.

Genesis mission will implement a unique dynamic space geodetic observatory, allowing an extraordinary combination of innovative technology and fundamental science. As the ITRF is recognised to be the foundation for all space- and ground-based space mission activities, Genesis will have a major impact on almost any space missions and, in particular, on Navigation and Earth Science.

On the industrial side, the company OHB Italia has been contracted by ESA as prime for the development, qualification, launch and 2 years operation of the mission, with a launch date in 2028 [2]. Antwerp Space (B), as the major sub-contractor of OHB-I, oversees the payload and geodetic instruments. Industrial activities were kicked-off in April 2024, the System Requirements Review was successfully closed-out in Q4 2024, and work is on-going towards a Preliminary Design Review in Q4 2025.

In parallel, on the scientific side, after a successful Genesis Workshop held in February 2024 [3], a Genesis Science Team was set-up and members appointed. This structure includes representatives of ESA, a lead Scientific Coordinator and Co-Coordinator, as well as five Working Groups covering the four geodetic techniques and their combination. Genesis Science Team has been actively supporting the mission development (in particular consolidation of requirements) and will play a key role in its future exploitation.

The paper will provide a detailed description of the scientific objectives, mission, and system overview, and a programmatic status of the Genesis Mission.

 

[1]: Delva et al. Earth, Planets and Space 75, 5 (2023)

[2]: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Satellite_navigation/ESA_kicks_off_two_new_navigation_missions

[3]: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Satellite_navigation/The_geodetic_community_meets_Genesis

How to cite: Fusco, G., Gidlund, S., Waller, P., Morlet, C., Perez Lissi, F., Sakalauskaite, E., Enderle, W., Schoenemann, E., Berton, J.-C., Gini, F., and Navarro, V.: Genesis: A Unique Space Geodetic Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8240, 2025.

EGU25-8273 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.1

Comparison of Seafloor Topography Prediction Using the Gravity-Geologic Method and Analytical Algorithm 

Yuwei Tian, Jinhai Yu, and Huan Xu

Seafloor topography prediction plays a crucial role in filling data gaps in regions lacking ship sounding measurements. However, the reliance of prediction algorithms on ship sounding data varies significantly. This study evaluates the impact of ship sounding coverage and distribution on the prediction accuracy of two methods: the gravity–geologic method (GGM) and an analytical algorithm. Simulation experiments reveal that increasing the ship sounding coverage from 5.40% to 31.80% and achieving a more uniform distribution significantly enhance the accuracy of the GGM, reducing the RMS error from 238.68 m to 42.90 m (an improvement of 82.03%). In contrast, the analytical algorithm maintains a stable RMS error of 40.39 m, demonstrating independence from ship sounding data. Further analysis in a 1° × 1° sea area (134.8°–135.8°E, 30.0°–31.0°N) shows that higher ship sounding coverage (33.19%) reduces the GGM RMS error from 204.17 m to 126.95 m compared to lower coverage (8.19%). However, the analytical algorithm's RMS error remains consistent at 167.94 m. These results underscore the GGM's sensitivity to ship sounding data and the analytical algorithm's robustness. The findings highlight the importance of combining algorithms based on ship sounding coverage. For regions where coverage exceeds 30%, the GGM offers superior accuracy. Conversely, the analytical algorithm performs better in low-coverage scenarios. This study provides a basis for integrating multiple algorithms to enhance global seafloor topography models.

How to cite: Tian, Y., Yu, J., and Xu, H.: Comparison of Seafloor Topography Prediction Using the Gravity-Geologic Method and Analytical Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8273, 2025.

EGU25-10368 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.1

Global gravitational field modelling for spheroidal planetary bodies: non-singular solutions 

Jiri Belinger, Veronika Dohnalova, Martin Pitonak, Pavel Novak, and Michal Sprlak

The standard theoretical framework for the gravitational field determination often relies on spherical approximation. However, Earth’s shape is much closer to a rotational ellipsoid flattened at the poles, as proved by the legendary expeditions of the French Academy of Sciences to South America and Lapland already in the 18th century. Contemporary investigations of solar system planetary bodies have revealed that many resemble prolate or oblate ellipsoids, whereas a high amount of them is flattened more significantly than the Earth. Four such spheroidal bodies have recently been subject to immense research interest: 1) Mars being explored by satellite and lander missions as it represents a potential target for future colonisation, 2) the asteroid Bennu explored by the sample-return satellite mission OSIRIS-REx, 3) the dwarf planet Ceres, and 4) the asteroid Vesta, both explored by the satellite mission Dawn. Moreover, several comets and asteroids with spheroidal (ellipsoidal) shapes have been subjected to intense small-body research. Consequently, there is an urgent need to formulate a modern theoretical framework for the gravitational field determination.

In this contribution, we formulate a mathematical theory for modelling of gravitational fields generated by ellipsoidal bodies. In addition, we present both theory and software considering non-singular solution for derived equations using recurrences instead of classical approach, which depends on reduced spheroidal latitude. Using recurrences, we can eliminate singularities on poles and computational errors in their proximity caused by latitude dependence.

How to cite: Belinger, J., Dohnalova, V., Pitonak, M., Novak, P., and Sprlak, M.: Global gravitational field modelling for spheroidal planetary bodies: non-singular solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10368, 2025.

EGU25-11128 | Orals | G1.1

Unlocked Potentials in Airborne Gravimetry 

Xiaopeng Li

Recent advancements in geodesy have highlighted the dynamic interplay between theory, science, engineering, technology, and practice-oriented services. The continuous evolution of geodetic science has led to significant progress in both traditional geodetic challenges and emerging issues, often driven by innovations in instrumentation and computational techniques. This paper explores the potential to enhance airborne gravimetry by incorporating data from typically discarded flight segments—such as takeoff, landing, and turning periods—referred to as "preparing time" or "junk periods." While these phases are often excluded due to complexities in modeling aircraft accelerations, this study demonstrates the value of including this data in local gravity field modeling. Through simulations of gravity disturbances and rigorous downward continuation methods, we achieve significant improvements in precision (57%, 17%, and 12%) for data in the bandwidth from spherical harmonic degrees 200 to 1080. Notably, further improvements (55%, 41%, and 30%) are observed when extending the bandwidth from spherical harmonic degrees 1080 to 2160. This research emphasizes the importance of utilizing the entire flight trajectory to improve airborne gravimetry efficiency. The findings have implications for the integration of advanced technologies, such as quantum gravimeters with sub-mGal accuracy, as well as the coupling of various gravimetric systems, including vector gravimetry, to solve complex geodetic problems.

How to cite: Li, X.: Unlocked Potentials in Airborne Gravimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11128, 2025.

EGU25-11169 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.1

gravitools: an open-source toolbox in Python for post-processing Exail Absolute Quantum Gravimeter (AQG) and other terrestrial gravimeter data 

Marvin Reich, Julian Glässel, Hartmut Wziontek, and Andreas Güntner

New devices often come along with new data structures and formats, and new instrument technologies require a new method of data processing. In recent years, BKG and GFZ have operated novel absolute quantum gravimeters (AQG) by Exail (formerly Muquans) in different environments for geodetic and hydrological applications. Here we present a newly released open-source library “gravitools” [1] we have developed for the handling and post-processing of AQG raw data.

The library is designed as a toolbox of data structures for common data handling, but also routines for standardized processing. For this new instrument there is yet no agreed upon standard method for these two aspects. With gravitools, we aim at providing a solid approach to address this topic and actively contribute to the necessary development of such a standard within the gravimetry community. In order to enhance usability, gravitools was developed as a user-friendly, reliable software application both for non-experts and advanced users. To this end, it offers a command-line, scripting and graphical user interface, which provides advanced users the option to precisely define their individual settings and routines. This contribution will provide an overview of implemented key features and their usage (data handling, processing, visualizing, documenting and archiving) as well as an outlook of planned extensions, such as the integration of similar features for CG-6 gravimeters.

The gravitools library It is written purely in Python and released on the Python Package Index (PyPI). It is licensed as open-source to make it freely available to the scientific community and encourage feedback and contributions.

[1] gravitools: https://gitlab.opencode.de/bkg/gravitools

How to cite: Reich, M., Glässel, J., Wziontek, H., and Güntner, A.: gravitools: an open-source toolbox in Python for post-processing Exail Absolute Quantum Gravimeter (AQG) and other terrestrial gravimeter data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11169, 2025.

The structure of the Laplace operator is relatively simple when expressed in terms of spherical or ellipsoidal coordinates. The physical surface of the Earth, however, substantially differs from a sphere or an oblate ellipsoid of revolution, even if optimally fitted. The same holds true for the solution domain and the exterior of a sphere or of an oblate ellipsoid of revolution. The situation is more convenient in a system of general curvilinear coordinates such that the physical surface of the Earth (smoothed to a certain degree) is imbedded in the family of coordinate surfaces. Therefore, a transformation of coordinates is applied in treating the geodetic boundary value problem. The transformation contains also an attenuation function. Subsequently, tensor calculus is used and the Laplace operator is expressed in the new coordinates. Its structure becomes more complicated now. Nevertheless, in a sense it represents the topography of the physical surface of the Earth. For this reason the Green’s function method is used together with the method of successive approximations in the solution of the geodetic boundary value problem expressed in terms of the new coordinates. The structure of iteration steps is analyzed and if possible, it is modified by means of integration by parts. The iteration steps and their convergence are discussed and interpreted. The approach is also compared with the method of analytical continuation.

How to cite: Holota, P.: Divergence of the gradient, solution domain geometry and successive approximations in gravity field studies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12189, 2025.

EGU25-15367 | Posters on site | G1.1

Gravity and 2D time lapse resistivity monitoring at Conrad Observatory for understanding local hydrology – case study of an exceptional rain event in September 2024 

Patrick Arneitz, Bruno Meurers, Birgit Jochum, Anna Ita, David Ottowitz, Roman Leonhardt, and Ramon Egli

Since April 2024 the Conrad observatory, located 60 km SW of Vienna within a karstic area of the Eastern Alps (Austria), operates a superconducting iGrav gravimeter (iGrav050) continuing the previous more than 10 years long gravity time series of GWR C025. Their gravity residuals indicated an extremely complex local hydrology in the surroundings of the observatory. For better understanding the local hydrological processes a geoelectric profile has been installed which monitors a 2D resistivity section each day. The profile runs across the topography just above the gravimeter. The latter is an underground installation. The situation is challenging because the profile runs closely above cavities built up by the observatory’s underground labs and tunnel. In addition, the geoelectric settings are limited by the requirements of the nearby geomagnetic observatory.

In September 2024 an extraordinary rain event happened in Lower Austria with cumulative rain as large as 400 mm within a few days. First results are shown comparing the gravity signal with the time dependent resistivity sections providing insight to the water content within the terrain top layer. In addition, the gravity residual signals are compared to those originating from a snowmelt event in 2009 with similarly large water intrusion during short time as in September 2024.

How to cite: Arneitz, P., Meurers, B., Jochum, B., Ita, A., Ottowitz, D., Leonhardt, R., and Egli, R.: Gravity and 2D time lapse resistivity monitoring at Conrad Observatory for understanding local hydrology – case study of an exceptional rain event in September 2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15367, 2025.

EGU25-20596 | Orals | G1.1

Development of continuous dynamic vertical reference for maritime and offshore engineering by applying geodetic and machine learning strategies 

Artu Ellmann, Nicole Delpeche-Ellmann, Sander Varbla, Saeed Rajabi Kiasari, Vahidreza Jahanmard, and Aleksei Kupavõh

This study develops real-time continuous dynamic vertical reference for quantifying hydrodynamic processes with respect to high-resolution and accurate marine geoid model. In particular, this can now be realised through dynamic topography (DT), which is defined as the instantaneous sea surface height (SSH) deviation from the marine geoid (DT=SSH–geoid) and represents one of the most useful parameters of marine dynamics.

In regions of good quality and dense coverage of gravity data a 5 cm accurate marine geoid modelling is achievable. Due to the underlying accurate geoid model the DT values can now be estimated, eg. from a suitable hydrodynamic model, with the dm level accuracy. This corresponds to the most strict requirement for vertical accuracy at cargo handling in ports, dredging, maritime engineering, hydrography and under-keel clearance (UKC) management. This DT accuracy range also creates pre-conditions for identifying realistic sea level variations and circulation patterns of oceanic currents, seamlessly from the coastline toward the offshore over large basins.

Due to strict safety regulations various maritime and offshore applications require short term realistic sea level forecasts for hours to days in advance. Such near-real time DT estimations create a breakthrough opportunity for advancing from the “static” marine geoid referred vertical datum to the development of a new type vertical datum – a dynamic (both spatially and temporally) vertical reference frame. This continuous (and liquid!) DT field represents (either retrospectively or in the forecasting mode) the realistic sea level in absolute sense. Once DT is solved with sufficient accuracy then this dynamic DT field serves then as a reference (hence the name!) for developing further data products. These continuous DT field estimates are used for computing its spatio-temporal derivatives (eg. horizontal gradient), that might reveal ocean circulation patterns.

The Baltic Sea countries have been fortunate to have access to a wide range of marine data products, including that of a high-resolution marine geoid and hydrodynamic models that allow further capabilities to be explored in terms of sea level accuracy and validation. Accordingly, this study proposes a geodetic methodology that synergizes different sea level data sources by utilization of the marine geoid. The methodology applied utilized mathematical, statistical and machine learning strategies to obtain a spatio-temporally continuous dynamic topography of the Baltic Sea level. Sea level forecasting using DT is examined using machine learning approaches such as Convolution Neural Network. By using deep learning methods a DT modelling accuracy of within 10 cm has been achieved, which appears to better than the traditional data assimilation based forecasting.

Accomplishing this creates a marine dynamic vertical reference frame, which allows novel opportunities for marine digital twins, navigation, oceanographic processes and marine forecasting abilities.

How to cite: Ellmann, A., Delpeche-Ellmann, N., Varbla, S., Rajabi Kiasari, S., Jahanmard, V., and Kupavõh, A.: Development of continuous dynamic vertical reference for maritime and offshore engineering by applying geodetic and machine learning strategies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20596, 2025.

EGU25-1481 | ECS | Orals | G1.2

Neural network-based framework for gravity signal separation 

Betty Heller-Kaikov, Roland Pail, and Martin Werner

Signal separation is a general problem in many geodetic datasets representing the superposition of various sources. We investigate global, temporal gravity data such as measured by the satellite missions Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow on (GRACE-FO). As gravity is an integral quantity, these data include signal components related to all kinds of geophysical processes involving a redistribution of masses in the Earth’s system. Examples for the latter are water mass redistribution processes such as seasonal hydrological variations or extreme events, as e.g. floods and droughts, but also Earthquakes or mass changes of ice sheets.

For optimally exploiting temporal gravity data regarding geophysical downstream applications, algorithms splitting up the data into the contained sub-signals are required. We attempt solving this signal separation task by training a neural network-based algorithm to recognize the individual signal components based on their typical patterns in space and time. Thereby, prior knowledge on the spatio-temporal behavior of the individual signals is introduced via forward-modeled time-variable gravity data for each of the components, as well as additional constraints.

Our algorithm is based on a multi-channel U-Net architecture which takes the sum of several signals as input and gives the retrieved individual sub-components as output. For the supervised training and subsequent testing of our software, we use a closed-loop simulation environment, working with the time-variable gravity signals given by the Updated ESA Earth System Model. The latter includes separate datasets for temporal gravity signals caused by mass change processes in the atmosphere and oceans (AO), the continental hydrosphere (H), the cryosphere (I) and the solid Earth domain (S).

For converting the global, temporal gravity data depending on the axes latitude, longitude and time to a 2-d image data format fitting the input and output layers of the U-Net, we split the data along one of its three axes to obtain latitude-longitude, latitude-time or time-longitude samples.

In a test example, we investigate the task of separating the above-mentioned AO, H, I and S components from their sum. The resulting relative RMS test errors being between 19% and 67% demonstrate that our network successfully separates the four considered signals from their sum at signal-to-noise ratios larger than 1.

In our contribution, we describe the functionalities of our software and possibilities to adapt it to any task of interest, including methods for introducing additional physical knowledge on the behavior of specific signals. In general, the described framework is applicable for signal separation in any dataset that depends on three axes (e.g., two spatial and one temporal, or three spatial axes). For the real data application of the framework, we suggest to use representative forward-modeled signals for training, and to subsequently test the trained separation model on real observational data.

How to cite: Heller-Kaikov, B., Pail, R., and Werner, M.: Neural network-based framework for gravity signal separation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1481, 2025.

EGU25-1723 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Gravity Inversion using Convolutional Neural Networks 

Benjamin Haser, Thomas Andert, and Roger Förstner

Small bodies such as asteroids, comets and moons are primary targets for space exploration. To test guidance, navigation and control algorithms an accurate model of the target’s gravity field is crucial for mission success. However, creating an accurate model near the body’s surface is a challenging task due to the often highly irregular shape and the limited information about the internal mass distribution.

This study presents a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to determine the density distribution from accelerations at the surface using gravity inversion. We used our voxel-based mascon simulation environment VMC to generate over 100k realistic density distributions (labels) for a cube and calculated the corresponding acceleration (features) for a fixed grid of positions. We selected this simplistic toy problem due to the perfect shape reconstruction and optimal data representation for the deep learning architectures. To investigate the effect of the shape mismatch between a voxel-reconstructed object and the real object we trained an additional Neural Network (NN) to extract the mass distribution for a triaxial ellipsoid using a similar amount of data.

We used a train/test ratio of 80/20 and trained both models using multiple hyperparameter sets for a maximum of 200 epochs using the Adam optimizer. After convergence, all models conserve the total mass. The best-performing architectures are able to determine the general trend of the mass distribution. For the ellipsoid, it can be observed that the model’s prediction is strongly influenced by the contribution of the body’s shape to the gravitational field.

Our results show that NNs are a promising candidate to extract the density distribution using gravity inversion.

How to cite: Haser, B., Andert, T., and Förstner, R.: Gravity Inversion using Convolutional Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1723, 2025.

EGU25-3607 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Adapting and Evaluating CyGNSSnet: A Deep Learning Approach to estimate Global Soil Moisture using GNSS Reflectometry 

Hamed Izadgoshasb, Tianqi Xiao, Daixin Zhao, Nazzareno Pierdicca, Jens Wickert, and Milad Asgarimehr

Recent advancements in Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) have led to significant progress in retrieving soil moisture (SM) and other land parameters such as Above Ground Biomass (AGB). The 2016 launch of NASA’s Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) mission provided high spatiotemporal resolution GNSS-R data, enabling more accurate soil moisture estimation. This is a key factor influencing the dielectric constant of scattering surfaces. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Deep Learning (DL) models, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), in addressing the non-linear complexities of soil moisture retrieval [1], [2]. In this study, CyGNSSnet, which was originally designed for global ocean wind speed estimation [3], is being adapted and optimized for global soil moisture estimation.

The research utilizes CyGNSS Level 1 version 3.2 data, specifically Delay Doppler Maps (DDMs), as the primary input. Each reflection point includes additional parameters like measurement geometry and reflectivity. Auxiliary datasets, including topography, soil texture, vegetation indices, and climate-related variables, are incorporated alongside SMAP soil moisture data as the target variable. These datasets, covering August 2018 to July 2021, are matched with CyGNSS specular points using the nearest neighbor method. Data division for training, testing, and validation follows a year-based approach. The CyGNSSnet architecture includes three main components: a map feature extractor using CNNs, an ancillary feature extractor, and a target regressor. Hyperparameters are fine-tuned to achieve optimal performance, with training conducted on HAICORE servers using PyTorch Lightning and an early-stop scheme to minimize training time.

To evaluate the model’s performance across diverse climates and land covers, the global map is stratified by intersecting land cover data from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) with temperature regimes from the FAO's Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ v4). This stratification ensures a comprehensive assessment of CyGNSSnet's soil moisture estimation capabilities under varying environmental conditions. The study highlights the potential of advanced DL models like CyGNSSnet to address complex geospatial challenges, enabling more accurate and efficient global soil moisture retrieval.

 

References:

[1]           M. M. Nabi, V. Senyurek, A. C. Gurbuz, and M. Kurum, “Deep Learning-Based Soil Moisture Retrieval in CONUS Using CYGNSS Delay-Doppler Maps,” 2022, doi: 10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3196658.

[2]           T. M. Roberts, I. Colwell, C. Chew, S. Lowe, and R. Shah, “A Deep-Learning Approach to Soil Moisture Estimation with GNSS-R,” 2022, doi: 10.3390/RS14143299.

[3]           M. Asgarimehr, C. Arnold, T. Weigel, C. Ruf, and J. Wickert, “GNSS reflectometry global ocean wind speed using deep learning: Development and assessment of CyGNSSnet,” Remote Sens Environ, vol. 269, p. 112801, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.1016/J.RSE.2021.112801.

 

How to cite: Izadgoshasb, H., Xiao, T., Zhao, D., Pierdicca, N., Wickert, J., and Asgarimehr, M.: Adapting and Evaluating CyGNSSnet: A Deep Learning Approach to estimate Global Soil Moisture using GNSS Reflectometry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3607, 2025.

EGU25-4895 | ECS | Orals | G1.2

High-precision Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction with Physical Excitation Factors and Deep Learning Methods 

Chenxiang Wang, Jiayao Wang, Chuanding Zhang, Pengfei Zhang, and Jizhang Sang

Abstract: The Earth is subject to complex internal and external forces in space. External forces include the gravitational attraction from the sun, moon, and other planets, and the internal forces include mass loads and frictional forces from the atmosphere, oceans, ice, snow, water, as well as interactions between the crust and mantle. Earth rotation parameters (ERPs) are essential for transforming between the celestial and terrestrial reference frames, and for high-precision space navigation and positioning. Amongst the ERPs, Polar Motion (PM) is a critical parameter for analyzing and understanding the dynamic interaction between the solid Earth, atmosphere, ocean, and other geophysical fluids. To investigate the impact of effective angular momentum (EAM) on long-term ERPs prediction, this thesis conducts research on long-term ERPs prediction considering EAM. Taking into account the influence of EAM, a discrete Liouville equation related to polar motion and UT1-UTC was first established, and the corresponding geodetic angular momentum was obtained. Finally, the residual geodetic angular momentum was obtained and modeled. Taking into account the residual of geodetic angular momentum and the experimental results of EAM, it is shown that, compared with Bulletin A, the LS+LSTM model has improved the accuracy of PMX, PMY, and UT1-UTC in the mid-and long term.

Keywords: Earth rotation parameters, Polar Motion, UT1-UTC, Least squares, Long Short-Term Memory model, effective angular momentum

Funding: Part of this work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No.42174037, No. 42030105, No. 42204006, No. 42274011, No. 42304095) and the State Key Laboratory of Geo-Information Engineering and Key Laboratory of Surveying and Mapping Science and Geospatial Information Technology of MNR, CASM (Grant No. 2024-01-01), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2024M752480.

How to cite: Wang, C., Wang, J., Zhang, C., Zhang, P., and Sang, J.: High-precision Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction with Physical Excitation Factors and Deep Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4895, 2025.

Slow slip events are typically associated with seismic activity, but the internal interactions and their relationship with earthquakes are still not well understood. With the rapid increase in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, it has become possible to study the subtle slow slip signals in GNSS displacement time series using deep learning. In this study, GNSS displacement time series data from the Cascadia subduction zone are preprocessed using the Variational Bayesian Independent Component Analysis method to effectively remove non-slow-slip signals. Additionally, we developed a deep learning model that includes a multi-layer bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory  neural network and an attention mechanism, which can effectively detect slow slip events from complex data. Through this deep learning model, we successfully detected 56 slow slip events in the Cascadia region from 2012 to 2022. The start times, durations, spatial distribution, and propagation patterns of these 56 events were consistent with earthquake catalogs, providing new insights into the slow slip behavior of the Cascadia subduction zone. Overall, our work offers an effective framework for extracting subtle signals hidden in GNSS time series.

How to cite: Wang, J. and Chen, K.: Detecting slow slip events in the Cascadia subduction zone from GNSS time series using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4976, 2025.

EGU25-5640 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Ionospheric data fusion with GNSS, GNSS-RO and satellite altimetry based on machine learning 

Marcel Iten, Shuyin Mao, and Benedikt Soja

Global ionospheric maps (GIMs) are widely used ionospheric products, especially in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications. They allow for instance to correct for the ionospheric delays in single-frequency applications. The input data for generating GIMs is typically obtained from dual-frequency observations at globally distributed GNSS stations. However, the distribution of these stations is in-homogeneous and predominantly concentrated in continental regions, resulting in large data gaps over the oceanic regions. The absence of data reduces the accuracy of GIMs in these regions. There exist other space techniques, such as satellite altimetry and GNSS radio occultation (GNSS-RO) that can retrieve the state of the ionosphere over ocean areas and have the potential to address such data gaps. However, the vertical total electron content (VTEC) observations from GNSS, satellite altimetry, and GNSS-RO differ due to variations in orbital altitudes and instrumental biases. Another challenge is the sparsity of observations from satellite altimetry and GNSS-RO, particularly when only considering data from a single day.

In this study, we developed a framework that integrates GNSS, Jason-3 satellite altimetry, and COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO observations in a GIM, based on a neural network (NN). First, we calibrated the satellite altimetry and GNSS-RO VTEC to be more consistent with GNSS VTEC. To address data sparsity, we used VTEC observations from satellite altimetry and GNSS-RO for the entire year 2023 to build a background ionospheric model with XGBoost. This background model captures the general climatological characteristics of the ionosphere over the oceans. We then utilized the background model to generate VTEC samples for training the NN-based GIM in regions lacking GNSS station observations. For our three test regions (Hawaii, Southern Atlantic, Antarctic), we find relative improvements in MAE of 37%, 11%, and 37% over the year 2023 compared to GNSS-only GIMs

The results demonstrate that the proposed data fusion method can effectively improve the modeling accuracy in regions with missing data.

How to cite: Iten, M., Mao, S., and Soja, B.: Ionospheric data fusion with GNSS, GNSS-RO and satellite altimetry based on machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5640, 2025.

Water vapor, the most significant greenhouse gas, plays a critical role in the Earth's climate system, influencing the hydrological cycle, energy distribution, and atmospheric dynamics. Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) serves as a vital parameter for understanding these processes. While traditional methods, including ground-based instruments and satellite observations, provide IWV measurements, they are often limited by spatial resolution, coverage, and accuracy. Advances in numerical weather models (NWM) and remote sensing have improved large-scale IWV estimations but still face challenges in capturing high accuracy. To address these limitations, this study introduces a novel approach using a Gaussian Mixed Long Short-Term Memory (GM-LSTM) deep learning model to generate high-resolution water vapor fields (WVF) with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution. The GM-LSTM integrates numerical weather models (NWM) and GNSS data to create an adaptive mapping for zenith wet delay (ZWD) estimation, which is then converted to IWV. By utilizing a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) architecture and probabilistic density distribution sequences, the model not only improves ZWD estimation accuracy but also quantifies inherent uncertainties due to spatial heterogeneity. Compared with ERA5 and VMF3, the proposed GM-LSTM achieves an average RMSE reduction of 67.68% and 48.74%. The proposed WVF generation method was validated through an inter-comparison with MODIS and Fengyun satellite products, highlighting its superior accuracy and reliability. This study demonstrates the potential of deep learning models like GM-LSTM to overcome the limitations of traditional techniques, providing a transformative tool for high-resolution IWV estimation and supporting advancements in climate monitoring and weather prediction.

Keywords:

WVF, Inter-comparison, IWV, GM-LSTM, GNSS, MODIS, Fengyun satellite

How to cite: Wang, L., Wang, D., and Kutterer, H.: High-Resolution Water Vapor Field Generation Using the Gaussian Mixed Long Short-Term Memory Network: A Satellite-Based Inter-Comparison in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6309, 2025.

Simulation studies are an essential tool in space geodesy. They support the optimization of ground and space networks, the exploration of innovative concepts, and the advancement of technological developments. Beyond measurement noise, realistic simulations must incorporate various error sources, including atmospheric effects, clock drift, and technology-related issues. For many space geodetic techniques, accurate simulations of tropospheric effects, particularly incorporating spatio-temporal correlations, are essential in this context. 

Traditionally, high-quality tropospheric simulations popular in the Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) technology rely on Kolmogorov turbulence theory combined with the frozen flow assumption. These simulations are parameterized using the refractive index structure constant (Cn), alongside auxiliary parameters like wind velocity and troposphere height. Although Cn values can be derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, most existing studies assume a generalized average troposphere, largely independent of specific locations or seasonal variations. Only a few incorporate location-based conditions, often through a simplistic latitude-based interpolation. Furthermore, reliance on GNSS data limits the ability to test potential network extensions when such observations are not available. 

This work enhances tropospheric simulations by introducing a global, three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, time) Cn model. The model is trained using zenith wet delay (ZWD) estimates from 21,000 globally distributed GNSS stations (2000–2023) and leverages meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis, including specific humidity across 11 pressure levels (1000 to 300 hPa) and wind velocity as features. Utilizing the XGBoost algorithm, the model supports short-term prediction scenarios with HRES weather forecasts and provides model uncertainty through an ensemble strategy. The proposed model is able to effectively capture the spatio-temporal patterns in the input data and provides high accuracy, allowing for enhanced simulations of space geodetic observations operating at radio frequencies such as VLBI and GNSS. Additionally, global monthly average estimates on a 0.25° x 0.25° latitude, longitude grid can be derived, offering a practical solution with sufficient accuracy for most simulation studies.

How to cite: Schartner, M.: A global refractive index structure constant model for enhanced tropospheric simulations of space geodetic observations , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6936, 2025.

EGU25-7477 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Deep Learning for detecting anthropogenic ground deformation signals from GNSS time series along the North Adriatic coasts of Italy 

Dung Thi Vu, Adriano Gualandi, Francesco Pintori, Enrico Serpelloni, and Giuseppe Pezzo

Detecting and analyzing spatiotemporal features of surface deformation signals caused by anthropogenic activities remains a challenging task in areas facing multi-hazard risks (e.g., earthquakes, subsidence, sea level rise, and flooding), particularly in coastal regions. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) displacement time-series and apply deep learning procedures to identify and characterize ground deformation patterns resulting from natural subsidence and human activities. The focus area is Northern Italy, specifically the North Adriatic coasts, a region with many gas and oil production and storage operations. Unlike production sites, where hydrocarbons are extracted continuously throughout the year, storage sites follow a seasonal cycle: gas/oil is injected in summer and extracted in winter. Our goals are to (1) identify spatial and temporal ground deformation patterns in GNSS time series linked to these anthropogenic activities, and (2) estimate key reservoir properties such as volume, depth, and spatial extent. We generate synthetic training datasets using 114 GNSS stations and simulated reservoirs modeled with the Mogi model, varying depth and volume-change characteristics over time. Weighted Principal Component Analysis (WPCA) is employed to handle missing GNSS data by assigning zero weights to gaps. We will discuss results relative to the application of Convolutional Neural Networks, AutoEncoders, and Graph Neural Networks. After training and calibrating these models on synthetic GNSS datasets, we apply them to real-world GNSS observations. A comparison will be carried out, discussing pros and cons of the various techniques.

 

 

How to cite: Vu, D. T., Gualandi, A., Pintori, F., Serpelloni, E., and Pezzo, G.: Deep Learning for detecting anthropogenic ground deformation signals from GNSS time series along the North Adriatic coasts of Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7477, 2025.

EGU25-7827 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Leveraging Machine Learning for Advanced Geodetic Data Analysis 

Shivangi Singh, Johannes Böhm, Hana Krásná, Sigrid Böhm, Nagarajan Balasubramanian, and Onkar Dikshit

Geodetic data analysis has traditionally relied on geophysical models and statistical methods to quantify Earth's deformation, correct for atmospheric effects, and refine measurement uncertainties. However, with the increasing volume and complexity of geodetic observations, machine learning (ML) may offer a better alternative for modelling non-linear motions of geodetic sites by capturing environmental effects and providing corrections for unmodelled influences.

ML has applications across various domains of geodesy, including coordinate time series analysis, geophysical deformation modelling, atmospheric and hydrological loading corrections, prediction of Earth orientation parameters, and tropospheric delay modelling. This study explores the use of ML techniques in geodetic data processing, focusing on modelling station height variations due to non-tidal loading (NTL) and other unmodelled effects in Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data analysis using meteorological and land surface state variables.

Different ML approaches, including ensemble methods and neural networks, are examined to understand how well they can model displacement of geodetic sites due to meteorological and land surface state variables responsible for the redistribution of geophysical fluids on Earth. The study aims to compare these methods, highlighting their strengths and limitations in geodetic applications. By providing a broad perspective on ML integration in geodesy, this work contributes to the ongoing discussion on data-driven approaches for improving geodetic modelling and analysis.

How to cite: Singh, S., Böhm, J., Krásná, H., Böhm, S., Balasubramanian, N., and Dikshit, O.: Leveraging Machine Learning for Advanced Geodetic Data Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7827, 2025.

EGU25-8792 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Prediction of regional sea level change and its components using machine learning methods 

fenghe qiu, Thomas Gruber, and Roland Pail

Regional sea level prediction plays a vital role in understanding the impacts of climate change and guiding the design of coastal infrastructure. Sea level rise is mainly driven by two primary factors: barystatic sea level change, caused by the melting of ice sheets, glaciers, and run-off of terrestrial water, and by steric sea level change, resulting from the expansion of seawater due to temperature and salinity changes. The former can be monitored from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On missions, and the latter is commonly calculated based on ocean salinity and temperature models. In this study, satellite altimetry was used to observe relative sea level changes spanning from May 2002 to April 2023. Specifically, barystatic sea level changes were derived using Mass Concentration (Mascon) solutions, while the steric height was estimated through the Ocean Physics Reanalysis model. According to the sea level budget equation, the total sea level change aligns closely with the combined contributions of barystatic and steric sea level components, validating the consistency of the data and methodology.

Machine learning has become increasingly significant in climate research in recent years. It enables the analysis of large and complex datasets that exceed human processing capabilities. Among the machine learning techniques, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is particularly effective for the time series prediction due to its ability to capture long-term dependencies and patterns through its gated mechanisms. LSTM models excel at handling trends, seasonality, and noise in data, making them ideal for understanding the temporal dynamics of sea level changes and predicting future values.

In this research, we applied a CNN-LSTM model to predict total, barystatic, and steric sea level changes. The model leverages the feature extraction capabilities of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) combined with the sequential learning strengths of LSTM. The results of this study provide valuable insights into the contributions of mass and steric components to regional sea level changes. By predicting these signals, this research enhances our understanding of the mechanisms driving the sea level rise, offering the critical information for climate change mitigation and coastal adaptation planning.

How to cite: qiu, F., Gruber, T., and Pail, R.: Prediction of regional sea level change and its components using machine learning methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8792, 2025.

EGU25-9878 | Orals | G1.2

Theory and implementation of least-squares-based deep learning 

Alireza Amiri-Simkooei

Big data is one of the most important phenomena of the 21st century, creating unique opportunities and challenges in its processing and interpretation. Machine learning (ML), a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), has become a foundation of data science, which enables applications ranging from computer vision, geoscience, aviation and medicine. ML becomes important when establishing mathematical models that connect explanatory variables to predicted variables is impossible due to complexity. Deep learning (DL), a subset of ML, has revolutionized fields such as speech recognition, email filtering, and time series analysis. However, DL methods face challenges such as high data demand, overfitting, and the “black box” problem.

We review least-squares-based deep learning (LSBDL), a framework that combines the interpretability of linear least squares (LS) theory with the flexibility and power of deep learning (DL). LS theory, widely used in engineering and geosciences, provides powerful tools for parameter estimation, quality control, and reliability through linear models. DL, on the other hand, deals with modelling complex nonlinear relationships where the mapping between explanatory and predicted variables is unknown. LSBDL bridges these approaches by formulating DL within the LS framework: training networks to establish a design matrix, an essential element of linear models. Through this integration, LSBDL enhances DL with transparency, statistical inference, and reliability. Gradient descent methods such as steepest descent and Gauss-Newton methods are used to construct an adaptive design matrix. By combining the transparency of LS theory with the data-driven adaptability of DL, LSBDL addresses challenges in different fields including geoscience, aviation, and data science. This approach not only improves the interpretability of DL models, but also extends the applicability of LS theory to nonlinear and complex systems, offering new opportunities for innovation and research.

By embedding statistical foundations in the DL workflow, LSBDL offers a three-fold advantage: i) Direct computation of covariance matrices for predicted outcomes allows for quantitative assessment of model uncertainty. ii) Well-established theories of hypothesis testing and outlier detection facilitate the identification of model misspecifications and outlying data, and iii) The covariance matrix of observations can be used to train networks with statistically correlated, inconsistent, or heterogeneous datasets. Incorporating least squares principles increases model explainability, a critical aspect of interpretable and explainable artificial intelligence, and bridges the gap between traditional statistical methods and modern DL techniques. For example, LSBDL can incorporate prior knowledge using soft and hard physics-based constraints, a technique known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML).

The approach is illustrated through three illustrative examples: Surface fitting, time series forecasting, and groundwater storage downscaling. Beyond these examples, LSBDL offers opportunities for various applications including geoscience, inverse problems, aviation, data assimilation, sensor fusion, and time series analysis.

How to cite: Amiri-Simkooei, A.: Theory and implementation of least-squares-based deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9878, 2025.

EGU25-9951 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Integrating Satellite Altimetry and Deep Learning for Enhanced Sea Level Forecasting  

Saeed Rajabi-Kiasari, Nicole Delpeche-Ellmann, and Artu Ellmann

Sea level forecasting is crucial for safeguarding coastal regions, enhancing marine infrastructure, ensuring navigational safety, and mitigating natural hazards. Traditional methods, which often rely on single data sources like tide gauges or merged altimeters, may struggle to provide accurate predictions in highly dynamic regions due to their limited spatial and temporal resolution. Multi-Sensor Data Fusion has the potential to address these limitations by integrating data from multiple sensors, thereby improving the consistency, quality, and accuracy of predictions. While this approach has been successfully applied to other oceanographic parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and salinity, sea level prediction remains challenging due to the spatial constraints of tide gauges and the relatively low temporal frequency of satellite observations. New satellite altimetry missions, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, can deliver high-resolution data. When combined with deep learning (DL) techniques, this has the potential to improve the accuracy of sea level forecasting.

This research presents a novel DL approach for sea surface height (SSH) forecasting based on SWOT satellite data. By incorporating data from various sources (e.g. tide gauges, hydrodynamic models, and meteorological variables, such as wind speed and atmospheric pressure), the model aims to provide accurate, instantaneous SSH maps referenced to the geoid surface (i.e. Dynamic Topography (DT)). The DL architecture also encompasses attention mechanisms to prioritize spatially and temporally critical information, potentially overcoming the inefficiencies seen in traditional data assimilation methods.

The goal is to generate DT maps for real-time, adaptable predictions by integrating spatio-temporal data sources. Unlike previous methods, this approach incorporates instantaneous DT directly into the modeling process rather than solely for validation. The approach will be evaluated in the Baltic Sea to assess its precision. This model has the potential to set a new benchmark for sea level forecasting, offering valuable contributions to environmental monitoring, climate research, operational oceanography, and decision-making by providing high-resolution and interpretable predictions.

How to cite: Rajabi-Kiasari, S., Delpeche-Ellmann, N., and Ellmann, A.: Integrating Satellite Altimetry and Deep Learning for Enhanced Sea Level Forecasting , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9951, 2025.

EGU25-11214 | ECS | Orals | G1.2

Advancing Global Vegetation Water Content Estimation with GNSS-R and Deep Learning 

Daixin Zhao, Milad Asgarimehr, Konrad Heidler, Jens Wickert, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Lichao Mou

Vegetation water content (VWC) is a critical parameter for understanding Earth’s ecological and hydrological systems, especially as climate change accelerates and extreme events become more frequent. Existing remote sensing methods for monitoring VWC face limitations due to restricted spatiotemporal coverage, soil moisture interference, and poor cloud penetration capability. To address these challenges, this study explores the synergy between unprecedentedly large datasets enabled by GNSS Reflectometry (GNSS-R) constellations and advanced deep learning algorithms for VWC estimation.

We propose a triple-collocated CGS dataset that integrates measurements from Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Several deep learning models are benchmarked and evaluated over a three-year timespan. Validation results against ground truth measurements demonstrate robust performance with a minimum root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 1.099 kg/m2. Moreover, predictive uncertainty is quantified using the Monte Carlo dropout method, providing a trustworthy representation for timely applications where ground truth data are unavailable.

Our study highlights the potential of combining GNSS-R with deep learning to address vegetation monitoring gaps. By leveraging the proposed CGS scheme and its large-scale dataset, we aim to catalyze further algorithmic advancements in GNSS-R-based vegetation monitoring and enhance the utility of GNSS-R for environmental applications.

How to cite: Zhao, D., Asgarimehr, M., Heidler, K., Wickert, J., Zhu, X. X., and Mou, L.: Advancing Global Vegetation Water Content Estimation with GNSS-R and Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11214, 2025.

Radio Occultation (RO) using signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is one of the most promising remote sensing techniques for global atmospheric sounding. RO is a limb-sounding technique that uses GNSS signals, refracted during their propagation through the Earth’s atmosphere to a receiver on a low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite. Over the last decades, RO products have been extensively used for data assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) as well as in climate science.

The RO retrieval of atmospheric profiles is based on accurately measuring phase deviations, which are induced by atmospheric bending of the signal. Over the past two decades, several improvements of the retrieval process have been achieved, but significant challenges remain, including the dependency of certain retrieval steps on external information or the assumption of spherical symmetry.

On the other hand, several RO missions such as the FORMOSAT-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) and its successor COSMIC-2 have been initiated over the last two decades. In addition, several commercial companies have launched their own RO payloads, which led to an enormous increase in data amounts in recent years. These large data amounts make it suitable for the application of machine learning (ML) models, which have not been used much by the RO community until now. Only few studies have tested the suitability of ML for replacing classic retrieval algorithms and despite already achieving promising results, they were not able to uncover the full potential of ML, mostly due to the small amounts of data used.

This study presents an initial assessment of the performance of ML-based RO retrievals of temperature, pressure and humidity, trained using RO data from e.g. COSMIC-2 and state-of-the-art reanalysis products such as ERA5. It explores the suitability of various experimental setups and evaluates the sensitivity of the results to different feature setups.

How to cite: Aichinger-Rosenberger, M.: Machine learning-based retrieval of thermodynamic profiles from GNSS-RO observations: Preliminary results , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11342, 2025.

EGU25-12006 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

Learning InSAR Deformation Representations 

Maria Kaselimi and Konstantinos Makantasis

The detection and characterization of ground deformations play a critical role in understanding and mitigating the risks associated with natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and land subsidence. These deformations can have significant impacts on human life, infrastructure, and the environment, making their timely and accurate detection essential for disaster management and planning. Remote sensing technologies, particularly those that offer global coverage and high temporal resolution, are indispensable in capturing ground motion over large areas. 
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, particularly from the Sentinel-1 mission, has revolutionized geodesy and remote sensing by providing high-resolution and frequent observations of Earth's surface. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) techniques allow for precise measurement of surface displacements at millimeter-scale accuracy, enabling the detection of subtle ground deformation patterns. Despite the availability of massive datasets from Sentinel-1, most of this data remains unlabeled, limiting the ability to directly apply supervised machine learning techniques for deformation classification. The need to manually label vast amounts of data is both time-consuming and resource-intensive, leaving a significant portion of the data underutilized for scientific discovery and practical applications.
Representation learning offers a promising approach to address these challenges by extracting meaningful features from large, unlabeled InSAR datasets. Self-supervised learning methods can leverage contrastive learning techniques to pretrain neural network encoders on deformation data, capturing patterns and structures inherent in the data without requiring labels. These learned representations can then be fine-tuned for downstream tasks, such as classifying deformation types (e.g., magma movements during volcanic eruptions or ground deformations coming from earthquakes) or detecting anomalies. By bridging the gap between vast, unlabeled data and the need for precise classification, representation learning enables more efficient use of InSAR datasets, advancing our ability to monitor and understand Earth's dynamic processes.

How to cite: Kaselimi, M. and Makantasis, K.: Learning InSAR Deformation Representations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12006, 2025.

Accurately monitoring and predicting the large-scale dynamic changes of water levels in coastal zones is essential for its protection, restoration and sustainable development. However, there has been a challenge for achieving this goal using a single radar altimeter and retracking technique due to the diversity and complexity of coastal waveforms. To solve this issue, we proposed an approach of estimating water level of the coastal zone in Beibu Gulf, China, by combination of waveform classifications and multiple sub-waveform retrackers. This paper stacked Random Forest (RF), XGBoost and CatBoost algorithms for building an ensemble learning (SEL) model to classify coastal waveforms, and further evaluated the performance of three retracking strategies in refining waveforms using Cryosat-2, SARAL, Sentinel-3 altimeters. We compared the estimation accuracy of the coastal water levels between the single altimeter and synergistic multi-altimeter, and combined Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST), Mann-Kendall mutation test (MK) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms to track the historical change process of coastal water levels, and predict its future development trend. This paper found that: (1) The SEL algorithm achieved high-precision classification of different coastal waveforms with an average accuracy of 0.959, which outperformed three single machine learning algorithms. (2) Combination of Threshold Retracker and ALES+ Retracker (TR_ALES+) achieved the better retracking quality with an improvement of correlation coefficient (R, 0.089~0.475) and root mean square error (RMSE, 0.008∼ 0.029 m) when comparing to the Threshold Retracker & Primary Peak COG Retracker and Threshold Retracker & Primary Peak Threshold Retracker. (3) The coastal water levels of Cryosat-2, SARAL, Sentinel-3 and multi-altimeter were in good agreement (R>0.66, RMSE<0.135m) with Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) water level. (4) The coastal water levels of the Beibu Gulf displayed a slowly rising trend from 2011 to 2021 with an average annual growth rate of 8mm/a, its lowest water level focused on May-August, the peak of water level was in October-November, and the average annual growth rate of water level from 2022-2031 was about 0.6mm/a. These results can provide guidance for scientific monitoring and sustainable management of coastal zones.

How to cite: Qin, J., Li, Z., and Jiang, W.: Synergistic multi-altimeter for estimating water level in the coastal zone of Beibu Gulf using SEL, ALES + and BFAST algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15082, 2025.

As a guiding mechanism for protecting cultivated land, achieving intensive and economical land use, and improving the ecological environment, the potential analysis of comprehensive land consolidation in the whole area relies on the accuracy of land use classification. In karst regions, such as the Li River Basin, the unique topography and geomorphology often render traditional land-cover classification methods prone to uncertainties, thereby affecting the consistency of conclusions in potential analysis for comprehensive land consolidation in the whole region. This study developed an improved random forest classification algorithm optimized for land-cover classification in the Li River Basin. Based on this algorithm, a potential evaluation model of comprehensive land consolidation in the whole area was constructed, and the spatial distribution characteristics of areas requiring consolidation under different potential levels for various land use types in the Li River Basin were analyzed in depth. The results indicate that the improved random forest algorithm performs best in land use classification in the Li River Basin, with overall accuracy and the kappa coefficient enhanced by 3% and 4%, respectively, compared with the standard random forest algorithm. The spatial distribution of potential levels of comprehensive land consolidation in the whole area across various land use types in the Li River Basin shows significant differences, ranking as ecological land > agricultural land > construction land. Compared to traditional evaluation models, the new model identifies consolidation areas for various land use types, covering 94.97% of the total area in the Li River Basin. This study can facilitate a comprehensive consolidation of land use types in karst regions from all elements, dimensions, and periods, thus provides scientific basis for land use and ecological protection in such areas. 

How to cite: Tang, Q., Jiang, W., and Li, Z.: Potential Analysis of the Comprehensive Land Consolidation for Entire Karst Region based on Improved Random Forest Method: A Case Study in the Li River Basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15130, 2025.

EGU25-16061 | ECS | Posters on site | G1.2

DL for CPO feature selection and forecasting 

Sonia Guessoum, Santiago Belda, José Manuel Ferrándiz, Sadegh Modiri, and Maria Karbon

Accurate short-term prediction of Celestial Pole Offsets (CPO), essential for applications such as satellite navigation and space geodesy, remains a significant challenge. We addressed this task using a 1D Convolutional Neural Network (1D CNN), a machine learning model designed to capture temporal patterns effectively. Our objective was to enhance the prediction accuracy of the key CPO components, dX and dY. To improve model interpretability, we employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), which identifies the most influential input features, such as historical dX and dY values and data from models like the Free Core Nutation (FCN) model. This transparency is critical for scientific and operational contexts.

We evaluated our model using various input data types, including rapid Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs), Bulletin A data from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), and FCN-derived data. Our results demonstrated improved prediction accuracy across all data sources, with rapid EOPs emerging as the most effective for short-term forecasts, particularly for the initial day. Leveraging rapid EOPs, we simulated the conditions of the 2nd Earth Orientation Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOPPCC) to further test our approach. The model outperformed other machine learning methods used in the campaign for dX predictions, although dY proved more challenging due to its complex dynamics.

This study highlights the potential of 1D CNNs in advancing CPO forecasting, particularly when coupled with interpretable frameworks like SHAP and diverse, high-quality data sources. Our findings underscore the transformative role of deep learning in enhancing the precision and reliability of Earth Orientation Parameter predictions, thereby supporting critical scientific and operational applications.

How to cite: Guessoum, S., Belda, S., Ferrándiz, J. M., Modiri, S., and Karbon, M.: DL for CPO feature selection and forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16061, 2025.

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Ionospheric Seismology explores the ionospheric response to earthquakes and tsunamis, which generate Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) detectable through GNSS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) observations. Real-time TID identification can offer a transformative approach to tsunami detection, enhancing tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) by extending coverage to open-ocean regions where traditional buoy-based systems are limited. Scalable and automated TID detection is therefore essential for augmenting TEWS capabilities.

In this work, we present a novel deep learning framework for real-time TID detection [3]. Leveraging Gramian Angular Difference Fields (GADFs), we transform TEC time-series data, retrieved via the VARION algorithm [1, 2], into images. Images were categorized based on ground truth: those overlapping labeled TID ranges were classified as TIDs, while others represented normal ionospheric TEC. This approach offers multiple advantages: (1) it preserves temporal dependencies through the sequential structure of GADFs, (2) allows reconstruction of original time-series data via its bijective nature, and (3) highlights temporal correlations within the data. Furthermore, GADFs encode temporal information directly in the images, making the method robust to missing data and suitable for image-based deep learning models in anomaly detection. Additionally, GADFs produce visually interpretable differences across classes, enhancing their utility.

We evaluated our framework using data from four tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Pacific Ocean: the 2010 Maule earthquake, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake, and the 2015 Illapel earthquake. The first three events were used for model training, while out-of-sample validation was performed on the Illapel earthquake to assess real-world applicability.

A single ResNet (50-layer) model was trained for TID detection, incorporating both anomalous (TID-containing) and normal data to ensure exposure to diverse scenarios. TEC data streams were processed chronologically in 60-minute windows, generating GADF images that the model classified as anomalous or normal. Predicted anomalies were concatenated into sequences and compared against ground truth. To further enhance performance, we integrated a false positive mitigation strategy, based on the likelihood of a TID at each time step, significantly reducing false positives. The model achieved an F1 score of 91.7% and a recall of 84.6%, demonstrating its strong potential for operational use in real-time applications.

By embedding deep learning into real-time GNSS-TEC analysis, this research represents a significant advancement in the use of TEC data for TEWS and underscores the potential of deep learning in geodetic time series analysis.

 References

[1] Savastano, G. et al. (2017). “Real-time detection of tsunami ionospheric disturbances with a stand-alone GNSS receiver: A preliminary feasibility demonstration”. Scientific reports, 7(1), 46607.

[2] Ravanelli, M., et al. "GNSS total variometric approach: first demonstration of a tool for real-time tsunami genesis estimation." Scientific reports 11.1 (2021): 3114.

[3] Ravanelli, M. et al. "Exploring AI progress in GNSS remote sensing: A deep learning based framework for real-time detection of earthquake and tsunami induced ionospheric perturbations." Radio Science 59.9 (2024): 1-18.

How to cite: Ravanelli, M., Constantinou, V., Liu, H., and Bortnik, J.: Harnessing AI in GNSS remote sensing: A Deep Learning framework for Real-Time Detection of Ionospheric Perturbations triggered by earthquakes and tsunamis , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16106, 2025.

EGU25-19735 | ECS | Orals | G1.2

Global long-lead forecast of total water storage and evaluation for 2010-2024 

Fupeng Li and Jürgen Kusche

Since 2002, the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE/-FO) missions monitored total water storage changes (TWSC) – the amount of water stored on continents – with an unprecedented accuracy. However, there is a latency of a few months in generating the standard GRACE TWSC product while operational services that aim at such as forecasting drought or flood potentials require near-real time or even forecasted total water storage maps. In this study, we use machine learning to forecast the global GRACE-like total water storage change at long-lead times (up to one year ahead), where our approach works with lagged/forward-moving hydrometeorological variables/indices (e.g., precipitation) as predictors. We evaluate these data-driven TWSC forecasted from a hindcast experiment over 2010-2024 using GRACE observations and compare them to the existing model forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s new long-range forecasting system (SEAS5). We find that the presented approach performs overall better than the land surface model (HTESSEL) as used by the ECMWF SEAS5 in forecasting TWSC. We forecast global TWSC at a grid resolution of 1° using three GRACE mascon solutions, resulting in three forecasted GRACE-like TWSC datasets. Possible applications include large-scale drought and flood early warning, constraining and downscaling water storage in hydrological forecasting models, the sea level forecasting, interpreting total water storage changes during the latency period of GRACE/-FO data, and geodetic applications like forecasting Earth orientation parameters via hydrological angular momentum excitation or forecasting loading corrections in GNSS and altimetry data analysis.

How to cite: Li, F. and Kusche, J.: Global long-lead forecast of total water storage and evaluation for 2010-2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19735, 2025.

G2 – Reference Frames and Geodetic Observing Systems

EGU25-814 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.1

An overview of shadow models implementations on LEO and MEO orbits. 

Vassiliki Krey, Xanthos Papanikolaou, and Maria Tsakiri

Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) plays a crucial role for Precise Orbit Determination of artificial satellites as it has been proven to be one of its major error sources. An essential parameter used for the calculation of SRP is the eclipse factor. To determine this factor along the orbit of the satellite, various shadow models have been implemented. The aim of this study is to investigate the differences the geometries of the models applied have, in different altitude orbits. To achieve this, we evaluate the results of shadow models used in the bibliography (ECSM, ESCM, Lunar shadow) along various Low Earth Orbits (LEO) and Medium Earth Orbits (MEO) satellites and demonstrate the effect of the geometries used in both cases. The study displays an overview of the results of each implementation and its computational complexity, as to provide an insight to researchers for which model to adopt when implementing an SRP model on LEO and MEO orbits.

How to cite: Krey, V., Papanikolaou, X., and Tsakiri, M.: An overview of shadow models implementations on LEO and MEO orbits., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-814, 2025.

Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP), which plays a crucial role in satellite Precision Orbit Determination (POD), is associated with the satellite’s optical properties and surface structure. The BDS-3 satellites offer a wide range of featured services, which result in complex satellite structures. Significant systematic errors related to solar elevation angles (up to 30 cm) are observed in precision orbit products. To address this issue, we compared the theoretical trend and actual values of acceleration in the Sun-satellite direction, revealing that the satellite antennas may introduce additional SRP perturbations. Consequently, an a priori model that includes antenna illumination was established based on the adjustable box-wing model. The employment of the a priori model shows a notable enhancement in orbit accuracy for the BDS-3 satellites. The mean offset and standard deviation of SLR residuals for C45/C46 are reduced to a level consistent with satellites from the same manufacture. The systematic errors in the residuals are notably reduced, achieving the RMS of 3.85 cm, which represents a 74% improvement over the results obtained using only ECOM1. For IGSO satellites, the 3D OBD is reduced to 18.5 cm, reflecting improvements of 55% and 25% over ECOM1 and ECOM2, respectively. Moreover, the 3-day-arc POD has been demonstrated to markedly enhance the orbit internal consistency of the IGSO satellite, with a 3D OBD reduction to 3.1 cm.

How to cite: Geng, T., Zhang, C., and Xie, X.: Refinement of the solar radiation pressure model for the BDS-3 satellites with considering illuminated antennas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2005, 2025.

EGU25-2256 | Orals | G2.1

Copernicus POD Service: Status of Copernicus Sentinel Satellite Orbit Determination 

Carlos Fernández Martín, Jaime Fernández Sánchez, Heike Peter, Muriel Pinheiro, and Carolina Nogueira Loddo

The Copernicus Precise Orbit Determination (CPOD) Service is key to the Copernicus Sentinel missions, supporting Sentinel-1, -2, -3, and -6 with critical orbit products and auxiliary data. These products facilitate the operational creation of scientific core outputs at ESA and EUMETSAT, accessible through the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/).


Recent advances have pivoted towards the incorporation of new satellite units, notably Sentinel-1C and Sentinel-2C, launched in late 2024. These additions prompted thorough CalVal activities, ensuring the integrity and accuracy of Precise Orbit Determination. Initial solutions mirrored those of earlier Sentinel models, setting a standard baseline, while performing dedicated verification of Level-0 signal decoding.


A key enhancement is the integration of multiple PODRIX receivers in orbit, routinely tracking both GPS and Galileo signals together with Copernicus Sentinel-6A. GNSS antenna calibration has been pivotal, aiming to reduce multipath errors by creating a Phase Center Variation map. Cross-verification with solutions from the CPOD Quality Working Group (QWG), composed of renowned institutions such as AIUB, CNES, DLR, GFZ, JPL/NASA, PosiTim, TU Munich, and TU Delft, ensures these preliminary orbits meet Copernicus's precision demands.


Building on these innovations, the CPOD Service maintains its commitment to rapid, robust product delivery, achieving 3D RMS consistency below 1 cm with QWG's non-time-critical products and providing near-real-time solutions in under five minutes. Future efforts will focus on refining Sentinel-3's short-time critical products and advancing Sentinel-6 macro-models, as well as consolidating achievements related to the application of the ITRF20 Seasonal Geocenter Motion model.


This presentation will show results from recent satellite commissionings, and explore prospective enhancements within the CPOD service, showcasing the ongoing evolution in support of Copernicus missions' precision and operational efficiency. The contribution will also show the planned evolutions to continue improving and to pave the way for future Copernicus missions.

How to cite: Fernández Martín, C., Fernández Sánchez, J., Peter, H., Pinheiro, M., and Nogueira Loddo, C.: Copernicus POD Service: Status of Copernicus Sentinel Satellite Orbit Determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2256, 2025.

EGU25-2259 | Posters on site | G2.1

FocusPOD: A POD and Geodesy SW Package 

Jaime Fernandez Sanchez, Carlos Fernandez Martin, Javier Berzosa Molina, Luning Bao Cheng, Miguel Angel Muñoz de la Torre, Marc Fernandez Uson, Sonia Lara Espinosa, Eva Terradillos Estevez, and Oleksandr Ivanchuk

Since 2021, GMV has been developing FocusPOD, a new Precise Orbit Determination (POD) and Geodesy software package. Written in modern C++ and Python, FocusPOD is designed around four key pillars:
1.    Object-Oriented Programming: Utilizing C++17 and Python3, FocusPOD leverages external libraries and tools to minimize code development, focusing on specific algorithms. The C++ Standard Library (STL) efficiently handles large datasets.
2.    Data-Algorithm Separation: This approach allows data reuse for multiple purposes and consistent multi-technique processing with a single algorithm implementation.
3.    Data Model: Organizing data in a centralized model, akin to a relational database, facilitates easy navigation through extensive geodesy datasets.
4.    Multi-Use Case Support: FocusPOD supports various users, including experts, operators, and machine-to-machine architectures.


The first application of FocusPOD in 2023 was standalone GNSS POD. It is now operational in the Copernicus POD (CPOD) Service, generating millimeter-accuracy orbits for Copernicus Sentinel satellites. SLR processing was added to compute SLR residuals and biases for CPOD quality control with state-of-the-art accuracy. In July 2024, standalone DORIS POD was implemented, achieving centimeter-accuracy orbits for Sentinel-3 and -6 using DORIS only; same was demonstrated with standalone SLR POD. Future steps include integrating state-of-the-art tropospheric models for improving the accuracy of DORIS and SLR POD.


The latest incorporation into FocusPOD is the support to GNSS network processing, handling multiple receivers and GNSS constellations, to estimate orbits, clocks, station coordinates, troposphere, and Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs). In parallel, advancement have been made to incorporate VLBI, implementing the IERS consensus model for observation reconstruction. These implementations will natively support single- and multi-technique at observation level with the four geodetic techniques. The final pending step is to estimate global solutions through Normal Equation (NEQ) stacking, on which the four techniques could be combined consistently.


This contribution will present the capabilities of FocusPOD, focusing on available models, algorithms, and the results achievable with each technique. It will also outline the current capabilities and maturity level of each technique, along with future development plans.

How to cite: Fernandez Sanchez, J., Fernandez Martin, C., Berzosa Molina, J., Bao Cheng, L., Muñoz de la Torre, M. A., Fernandez Uson, M., Lara Espinosa, S., Terradillos Estevez, E., and Ivanchuk, O.: FocusPOD: A POD and Geodesy SW Package, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2259, 2025.

EGU25-3491 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.1

Characteristics of Probability Distribution and Fitting Accuracy for LEO Satellite Ephemeris 

Chunbo Wei and Kan Wang

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites have nowadays shown great potential to enhance the existing GNSSs for better Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services. Despite the requirements for high-accuracy real-time orbits, the distribution of various LEO satellite ephemeris is of concern, yet rarely studied for efficient broadcasting of the LEO satellite ephemeris. This is especially important for setting proper thresholds when broadcasting the LEO satellite ephemeris. In this study, the probability distribution of the LEO satellite ephemeris parameters is investigated together with the corresponding fitting accuracies. Twelve LEO satellites flying at different altitudes with different orbital characteristics are tested for 16-, 18-, 20-, and 22-parameter ephemeris fitting. The results reveal that an increase in orbital altitude does not only lead to improved fitting accuracy, but also results in a more concentrated distribution of orbital elements. Reducing the fitting interval and increasing the number of ephemeris parameters contribute positively to improving the fitting accuracy, where an accuracy of 1~2 cm or serval millimeters can be achieved with 10-min fitting interval and 20/22-parameter ephemeris for a 300~1400 km orbital altitude. This, however, comes at the cost of dispersed distribution of the orbital elements, i.e., with wider ephemeris threshold required. It was also found that the mean values of certain crucial ephemeris parameters, e.g., the mean motion correction, the right ascension of ascending node rate, and the second-order harmonic coefficients Cus2 and Crc2, are highly correlated with the orbital altitudes and inclinations.

How to cite: Wei, C. and Wang, K.: Characteristics of Probability Distribution and Fitting Accuracy for LEO Satellite Ephemeris, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3491, 2025.

Real-time data processing onboard is increasingly essential for future Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. We propose an ultra-rapid onboard orbit determination (OD) strategy that achieves decimeter-level accuracy, potentially up to centimeter-level. This approach enables high-precision OD and prediction using either precise GNSS products from ground stations or broadcast ephemeris. Consequently, it allows satellite payloads to deliver real-time, high-performance services to ground users, with significant potential for various applications. Experimental results show that using IGS final GNSS products, this method achieves 5 cm accuracy for OD and better than 10 cm for 10-min orbit prediction. With broadcast ephemeris, the accuracies are better than 45 cm for OD and 1 m for 10-min orbit prediction.

How to cite: Luo, P. and Song, Y.: An Onboard Ultra-Rapid Orbit Determination Strategy for LEO Satellite Utilizing GNSS Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5062, 2025.

EGU25-8080 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.1

Refinement of the solar radiation pressure model for the SWOT satellite  

Suzanne Blondel, Alexandre Couhert, John Moyard, Flavien Mercier, and Sabine Houry

The NASA-CNES climate science Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite was successfully launched in December 2022. This mission embodies the longstanding cooperation between CNES and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in space oceanography for 40 years, initiated with TOPEXPoseidon in 1992, subsequently pursued through the Jason series of satellites (1 to 3 between 2001 and 2016) and continued in 2020 with the Copernicus Sentinel-6 mission.

SWOT is the first space mission that will study nearly all of the water on the Earth’s surface. To complete this global survey and mapping of the finer details of the ocean’s surface topography and water bodies over time, the satellite is equipped with a GPS (Global Positioning System) and DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) dual-frequency receivers, as well as a Laser Retroreflector Array (LRA) to support verification of the challenging Precision Orbit Determination (POD) requirements

 

In this poster, we will present the current results and efforts underway to improve the modeling of Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP). Residual signatures of systematic errors related to the Sun’s elevation angle are observed in-flight when using the current a priori SRP model. To address this issue, we analyze once-per-revolution empirical along-track and cross-track accelerations with respect to the beta prime angle, aiming at reducing this dependency. An updated box-wing model is thus derived for SWOT moving from pre-launch to adjusted data (geometry, surface properties).

How to cite: Blondel, S., Couhert, A., Moyard, J., Mercier, F., and Houry, S.: Refinement of the solar radiation pressure model for the SWOT satellite , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8080, 2025.

EGU25-9284 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.1

Precise Multi-Technique Orbit Determination of the Sentinel Satellites 

Ahmad Desai, Ludwig Combrinck, and Ramesh Govind

A significant contributing error source in the computation of the ITRF is the estimation of terrestrial ties, between geodetic reference points at colocation sites. The discrepancy in the description of the vectors, as determined through space geodetic observations and terrestrial surveying techniques, can be as much as 10 cm at certain sites.

In response, in 2022, the European Space Agency proposed the GENESIS satellite mission which is a specially designed geodetic satellite equipped with the four space geodetic techniques i.e., LRA, GNSS, DORIS and VLBI to achieve an ITRF with a positional accuracy of one mm and a stability of 0.1 mm/year.

Given the increase in the number of LEO satellites that are equipped with multiple geodetic techniques, it is opportune to assess and develop the capability of co-location in space (at the satellite) to achieve these accurate terrestrial ties at sites that are collocated with multiple space geodetic observing techniques.

The aim of the of the study is to determine the feasibility of colocation in space by undertaking multi-technique orbit determination, estimating station coordinates and hence the terrestrial ties between collocated observing techniques using multi-technique data from the Sentinel satellites. This may inform the GENESIS geodetic mission.

Our project estimates orbits for the available techniques on the respective satellites, from 2016 to 2022.  The observation network and its categorisation based on collocated systems, the computations standards implemented for each observation type and the subsequent combination method to determine the coordinates for each technique at each site is presented. 

The vectors as determined between adjusted station co-ordinates are compared to the official terrestrial ties. This measure may provide insight into the stacking and combining of POD solutions; and station position estimates that may be performed for optimum space co-location results and identify any limitations or potential improvements in the processing strategy. 

How to cite: Desai, A., Combrinck, L., and Govind, R.: Precise Multi-Technique Orbit Determination of the Sentinel Satellites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9284, 2025.

EGU25-10499 | Posters on site | G2.1

Clearing systematic range biases from SLR observations: assessment and outlook 

Eléonore Saquet, Alexandre Couhert, Franck Reinquin, and Adrian Banos Garcia

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) has become an invaluable core technique in numerous geodetic applications. SLR measurements to passive spherical satellites essentially contribute to the determination of geocenter coordinates and global scale in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) realizations. In addition, SLR measurements to active satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are up to now mostly used for independent validation of orbit solutions, usually derived by microwave tracking techniques based on Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) or Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). This allows for the analysis of systematic orbit errors (e.g., originating from poorly known non-gravitational perturbations or sensor offsets) not only in the radial direction (key to satellite altimetry missions), but in three dimensions.

 

It has recently been shown, in Saquet et al. (2023), that the analysis of SLR data to a constellation of active LEO satellites with fixed microwave-derived orbit solutions is a promising approach to exhibit SLR range biases independently from well-known correlation issues and less prone to geographically correlated orbit errors. Clearing systematic range biases from SLR observations is also an essential step to meeting stringent future requirements such as for ESA’s GENESIS mission or enabling the calibration of altimeter range biases for the next generation of altimetry missions.

 

In this paper, we use geodetic sphere (e.g., LAGEOS-1/2) measurement SLR residuals to assess the quality of the station range biases derived from satellite altimetry compared to ILRS-based range bias values. Systematic differences between the two independent approaches are analyzed, especially for well-performing laser stations with diverse detector types (e.g., single/multi-photon). Finally, relying on multiple years of observations, the contribution of tropospheric delay modeling errors to these biases is estimated.

How to cite: Saquet, E., Couhert, A., Reinquin, F., and Banos Garcia, A.: Clearing systematic range biases from SLR observations: assessment and outlook, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10499, 2025.

EGU25-13160 | Orals | G2.1

Precise Orbit Determination for Sentinel-6A using Galileo and GPS observations 

Zhigui Kang, Peter Nagel, Himanshu Save, Srinivas Bettadpur, and Nadege Pie

The Sentinel-6A satellite, launched on November 21, 2020, is equipped with a dual-constellation (Galileo and GPS) onboard receiver for precise orbit determination (POD). Since launch, there have been significant improvements in the force models and data processing strategies. This has resulted in significant improvements to orbit accuracy. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity (GRACE-C) mission, which will be launched in 2028, will carry on a similar onboard receiver to Sentinel-6A. The main purposes of this study are to extend our software to process both Galileo and GPS data for preparing GRACE-C and to investigate how well the orbits of the Sentinal-6A satellite can be currently determined using Galileo or/and GPS data based on the current models and approaches. In this study, we present the results of Sentinel-6a POD solutions. The orbit accuracy is assessed using several tests, which include analysis of orbit fits, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) residuals, internal and external orbit comparisons. We show that less than one-cm radial orbit accuracy for the Sentinel-6A satellite has likely been achieved through different orbit accuracy evaluations. The precise Sentonel-6A orbits determined based on Galileo and GPS observations can meet the stringent requirement on radial orbit accuracy (1.5 cm).

How to cite: Kang, Z., Nagel, P., Save, H., Bettadpur, S., and Pie, N.: Precise Orbit Determination for Sentinel-6A using Galileo and GPS observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13160, 2025.

Due to mission objective constraints, some low Earth orbit satellites are required to operate in flexible attitude modes, but meanwhile stable Precise Orbit Determination (POD) performances must be guaranteed persistently. In this case, a single zenith-mounting antenna, as most missions have done in the past, will not fulfill POD requirements because its GNSS signal tracking might be significantly downgraded in certain attitude modes. A straightforward solution is carrying two antennas for better receiving geometry. This research investigated PODs for different satellites using GNSS observations from two antennas, which were installed with an angle varying between 45 and 180 degrees in the satellite body-fixed reference frame. The preprocessing and screening of GNSS observations was elaborately done to maximize the continuous arc for ambiguity estimation, in particular for cases when the two antennas tracked the same GNSS satellites alternatively or simultaneously. The potential signal delay between the two antennas and the independent phase patterns need to be evaluated. Afterwards the different GNSS observations were robustly merged referring to the satellite’s center-of-mass. Results indicated that the GNSS observation fusion strategy significantly enhanced the stable POD performances for attitude modes where single antenna was impossible to receive sufficient GNSS observations. The overlapping consistency and internal consistency between the reduced-dynamic orbits and the kinematic orbits were only 1-2 cm in the local orbital reference frame, obtaining a similar level as other renown missions with single zenith-mounting antenna. Besides, such dual-antenna GNSS tracking configuration enabled potential assessments of center-of-mass coordinates as well as other applications.

How to cite: Mao, X., Wang, W., and Gao, Y.: Precise orbit determination for satellites in flexible attitude modes using dual-antenna GNSS observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14826, 2025.

EGU25-15720 | Posters on site | G2.1

Employing the numerical weather prediction for direct modelling of SLR atmospheric corrections 

Maksym Vasiuta, Barbara Süsser-Rechberger, Torsten Mayer-Guerr, and Heikki Järvinen

The atmospheric delay correction of Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) ground observations depends on the state of the neutral atmosphere. In the state-of-the-art SLR network processing, this delay is an empirical function of local station-based meteorological variables. We propose an alternative modelling approach commonly used in Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, the slant delay (SD) is estimated via ray tracing (RT) with atmospheric information provided by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). We compare the default processing of the atmospheric correction using the Mendes-Pavlis (M-P) model supplied with station meteorological data and the alternative processing using the Least Travel Time version 2 (LTT v2) ray tracer coupled with the Open Integrated Forecasting System (OpenIFS) NWP model of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Additionally, we employ a hybrid approach where the M-P model is supplied with interpolated weather forecast data. Our SLR processing setup is a position determination of 10 satellites using only the SLR observations from December 2016, done using the Gravity Recovery Object Oriented Programming System (GROOPS) toolkit. We compare three atmospheric modelling approaches by employing their slant delay estimates in the SLR processing and performing residual analysis.

How to cite: Vasiuta, M., Süsser-Rechberger, B., Mayer-Guerr, T., and Järvinen, H.: Employing the numerical weather prediction for direct modelling of SLR atmospheric corrections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15720, 2025.

EGU25-16573 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.1

The influence of non-gravitational force modeling on Genesis and GNSS orbit and geodetic parameter estimations using two different macro models 

Alexandra Miller, Daniel Arnold, Adrian Jäggi, Peter Steigenberger, and Oliver Montenbruck

ESA’s Genesis mission, planned to launch in 2028, aims to contribute to a highly improved International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) with an accuracy of 1 mm and a stability of 0.1 mm/year. It will combine GNSS, DORIS, SLR and VLBI space geodetic techniques, acting as the first ever space-tie using these four techniques. The satellite will orbit at an altitude of 6000 km and will be equipped with two GNSS antennas, pointing in zenith and nadir direction, in order to counteract the loss of GNSS coverage at those altitudes.

For the mission to provide a strong contribution to the ITRF, dynamic satellite orbit modeling needs to be done as empirical orbit parameters are closely correlated with some geodetic parameters. Thus, the geometry and optical properties of the satellite, expressed as a macro model, should be described as accurately as possible.

During the development of Genesis, different spacecraft designs were considered. We focus on the original box-wing model, consisting of a cuboid body and a single solar panel, and the newer model, which is similar to Sentinel-6. Their respective influence is determined for a Genesis-only precise orbit determination as well as a global combined solution, where the Genesis orbit, GNSS orbits and clocks, ground station coordinates and geodetic parameters are estimated together. In addition, uncertainties to the optical properties of single or multiple surfaces of the spacecraft were introduced in order to test how macro model errors propagate into the global combined solution.

Using simulated pseudo-range and carrier phase GNSS data for Genesis and the ground stations, we reconstruct the orbit and geodetic parameters. A comparison of the solutions to the simulation truth allows for a direct quantification of the impact of different macro models and possible errors.

How to cite: Miller, A., Arnold, D., Jäggi, A., Steigenberger, P., and Montenbruck, O.: The influence of non-gravitational force modeling on Genesis and GNSS orbit and geodetic parameter estimations using two different macro models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16573, 2025.

EGU25-16653 | Orals | G2.1

Short-Term Clock offset Predicting Products Based on Low Sampling Estimation for Real-time Service 

Yu Cao, Guanwen Huang, Zhiwei Qin, Shichao Xie, Wei Xie, Yurui Fan, and Shi Du

With the widespread application of precise point positioning (PPP), real-time clock offset products have become a focal point of global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Real-time clock offset estimation offers high accuracy but demands stable data communication and involves significant computational pressure. And the accuracy of ultra-rapid products does not meet the requirements of positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services. To address this, a short-term clock prediction method based on low sampling rate estimation is proposed. This method provides users with a set of clock model coefficients, enabling them to obtain high sampling rate clock offset at any time. Based on the clock products with 60s intervals estimated by square root information filtering (SRIF) from 80 stations, the most suitable short-term model that the linear model with the same arc length for fitting and prediction is determined by adaptive analysis of the order of polynomial model and data arc lengths. Based on this, short-term predicted parameters for 5min, 10min, 15min, 30min and 60min are obtained. These parameters are then interpolated to 30s interval for detailed accuracy assessment and PPP validation. The results indicate that the clock offset predicting accuracies of BDS-3 are 0.029ns, 0.033ns, 0.037ns, 0.047ns, 0.071ns for 5min, 10min, 15min, 30min and 60min, while the Galileo are 0.023ns, 0.027ns, 0.032ns, 0.039ns, 0.062ns. The predicted clock offsets of Galileo are slightly better than those of BDS-3. The PPP results show that the 2D and 3D positioning accuracies for the 5min prediction are 0.058m and 0.115m, respectively, with positioning accuracy declining as the prediction arc length increases. Overall, the positioning performance of the predicted clock products within 30min are nearly consistent to the real-time estimated clock. Compared to Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the results of PPP performance are similar,and superior to the performance of ultra-rapid clock products. Therefore, short-term predicted products based on low sampling rate estimated clock can serve as a more stable alternative to real-time products in the PPP applications. The updating frequency of the clock offset model coefficients is determined based on the needs of PPP users. The method reduces the sampling rate for estimating clock offset while maintaining high-precision clock offset products. Additionally, it can still offer high-precision real-time clock offset prior information to the PPP users during interruptions in real-time estimation.

How to cite: Cao, Y., Huang, G., Qin, Z., Xie, S., Xie, W., Fan, Y., and Du, S.: Short-Term Clock offset Predicting Products Based on Low Sampling Estimation for Real-time Service, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16653, 2025.

EGU25-17971 | Orals | G2.1

Reducing uncertainties in the determination of the Earth's GM 

Marie Cherrier, Alexandre Couhert, Pierre Exertier, Flavien Mercier, and Eléonore Saquet

For the past fifty years, geodetic satellites have contributed to improve our knowledge on various Earth's physical behaviors. The purpose of this paper is to reassess the value of the geocentric gravitational constant (GM), defined by the product of the Earth's universal gravitational constant G and its mass M, from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) observations. Indeed, its relatively large uncertainty of 2.0 ppb (Ries et al., 1992) is not compatible with the final goal of the GENESIS MEO (Medium Earth Orbit) mission to realize the Terrestrial Reference Frame with an accuracy of 1 mm. The core of this analysis is based on the simultaneous estimation of the Earth's GM with laser station and satellite biases, taking the most of historical passive geodetic satellites, including three pairs of "twin" satellites to validate independently the accuracy of the newly derived GM value. Furthermore, by combining MEO and LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellites, a consistent value of GM has been reassessed, this value being higher and less uncertain than the currently used reference value determined in 1992. In particular, the influence of errors in the modeling of the Earth radiation pressure and station coordinates on GM was evaluated.

How to cite: Cherrier, M., Couhert, A., Exertier, P., Mercier, F., and Saquet, E.: Reducing uncertainties in the determination of the Earth's GM, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17971, 2025.

EGU25-18031 | Posters on site | G2.1

On the Impact of Attitude Data Deviations for GNSS Precise Orbit Determination 

Patrick Schreiner, Susanne Glaser, Rolf König, Karl Hans Neumayer, Shrishail Raut, and Harald Schuh

Precise Orbit Determination (POD) of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) satellites relies on precise satellite attitude data to accurately model satellite dynamics and observation geometry. Errors in the attitude control, such as biases, and periodic signals, have the potential to propagate into orbit estimates and derived geodetic parameters, thereby influencing the accuracy required for high-precision geodetic applications. Furthermore, accurate attitude determination plays a critical role in Next-Generation GNSS, particularly for the implementation of inter-satellite range links. This study presents a simulation framework to analyse the impact of such effects on GNSS attitude data and their implications for POD.

A Galileo-like constellation is simulated over a three-year period, employing state-of-the-art methods and datasets, including ITRF2020. The basis of the simulation are realistic assumptions concerning satellite geometry and attitude control. Systematic orientation biases and periodic signals, such as misalignments in solar panel orientation or inaccuracies in yaw steering, are applied to the attitude data to emulate potential errors in real systems. The simulation then examines the propagation of these errors into POD solutions, including their effects on orbit errors and clock estimates.

Particular attention is given to systematic effects arising from solar radiation pressure (SRP) modelling in combination with systematic attitude errors. The results obtained demonstrate the sensitivity of GNSS POD to precise attitude knowledge, thereby providing valuable insights for the design and calibration of future GNSS. This study emphasises the critical role of attitude control in achieving the accuracy objectives outlined by the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) for subsequent reference frame determination.

How to cite: Schreiner, P., Glaser, S., König, R., Neumayer, K. H., Raut, S., and Schuh, H.: On the Impact of Attitude Data Deviations for GNSS Precise Orbit Determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18031, 2025.

We have developed three innovative, empirically-derived all-force radiation pressure models for multi-GNSS, addressing the shortcomings of traditional models that rely on simplified spacecraft geometries and extensive metadata. The models were created using ESA and CODE orbit products with different arc lengths (5-day and 10-day). This presentation will share the findings of a comparative study of these three models, based on a full year of high-precision GNSS data processing.

The results reveal significant variations in model performance across different GNSS constellations. A 5-day ESA-based model with a comprehensive parameter set (including a Z0 term and a Galileo-specific term) showed superior performance for Galileo and GPS. In contrast, a 5-day CODE-based model performed best for BeiDou, underscoring the importance of data source quality. Interestingly, a 10-day ESA-based model demonstrated lower performance, suggesting that longer arcs do not necessarily enhance model accuracy.

Further analysis indicated that while the models effectively reduced the variability in estimated ECOM parameters, consistent non-zero mean values for some parameters—particularly for BeiDou—highlight the presence of unmodeled forces. This is further supported by the anomalous behavior of certain BeiDou satellites, emphasizing the need for dedicated modeling strategies tailored to specific constellations.

This work underscores the critical role of data source quality, arc length selection, and careful parameterization in developing accurate and reliable all-force radiation pressure models for multi-GNSS. To further enhance the models, we will investigate these factors in greater detail, explore alternative parameterizations, and develop strategies to improve performance for challenging constellations, especially BeiDou.

The models developed in this study are freely available to the scientific community to support further research and enhance the accuracy of GNSS precise orbit determination.

How to cite: Springer, T. and Dilssner, F.: Taming the Invisible: A Comparative Study of All-Force Radiation Pressure Models for Multi-GNSS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19120, 2025.

EGU25-20067 | Orals | G2.1

A new combined processing for Genesis 

Jean-Christophe Berton, Sara Bruni, Florian Dilssner, Michiel Otten, Ivan Sermanoukian Molina, Tim Springer, Mark van Kints, Gaia Fusco, Sara Gidlund, Francesco Gini, Erik Schoenemann, Evelina Sakalauskaite, Pierre Waller, and Werner Enderle

Genesis is ESA's future mission that will contribute to a highly improved Earth reference frame with a target accuracy of 1 mm and a long-term stability of 0.1 mm/year, providing a coordinate system for the most demanding scientific applications on our planet.

The baseline for the Genesis satellite is to combine all four major space-geodetic techniques: Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS). The synchronisation and cross-calibration of these instruments are key to determine the inherent biases of each technique, allowing for a coherent combination of the relevant observations resulting in an improved accuracy of the orbit determination.

In preparation for this mission, which is expected to be launched in 2028, the Navigation Support Office of the European Space Agency will be responsible for the Precise Orbit Determination (POD) of the GNSS satellites and for the Genesis satellite. Hence, the Office is already preparing the tools to be ready for the processing of all the observables coming from these four techniques in a combined and coherent manner.

Real data obtained from ESA’s missions, including the Copernicus Sentinel missions, will serve as the basis for testing, validating, and further developing and enhancing the capabilities of a multi-technique processing, including GNSS, SLR and DORIS. In parallel, the Office is preparing to process the first high precision VLBI observations from a satellite.

A detailed description of the POD methodology that the Navigation Support Office intends to apply for Genesis mission as well as the first results will be presented and discussed at the EGU General Assembly.

How to cite: Berton, J.-C., Bruni, S., Dilssner, F., Otten, M., Sermanoukian Molina, I., Springer, T., van Kints, M., Fusco, G., Gidlund, S., Gini, F., Schoenemann, E., Sakalauskaite, E., Waller, P., and Enderle, W.: A new combined processing for Genesis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20067, 2025.

The quality of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite-borne global positioning system (GPS) observation data has an important influence on the precise orbit determination of LEO satellite and the study of the ionosphere. In this contribution, we develop a geometry-free orbit-dynamic-constraint approach to analyze the satellite-borne GPS observations errors, including code errors, carrier phase errors, receiver clock errors, ionospheric delay, to detect and repair cycle slips for satellite-borne dual-frequency carrier phase observations. Different from the traditional methods suitable to satellite-borne GPS observations, we take full advantage of the correlations between the dual-frequency observations, between the satellite orbit variations and the orbit dynamic background models, without a prior precise orbit. The proposed approach can not only remove the geometry variations between GPS satellites and LEO satellite, but also have partial characteristics of other signals separated from GPS observations, such as the receiver clock offset. Then, the performance of the proposed approach is verified by GPS measurement data of GOCE/GRACE satellite with different sampling interval. The results indicate that the proposed approach preforms well on observations error analysis, can effectively detect and fix cycle slips with high success rates, even in real-time applications.

How to cite: Zhu, H., Zou, X., and Wei, H.: Geometry-free error analysis and cycle slips detectionof GPS observations on the basis of dynamic information and its applications on LEO precise orbit determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21056, 2025.

EGU25-1597 | Posters on site | G2.2

Long Term Stability of the SLR and VLBI Geodetic Networks 

Peter Dunn, Van Husson, and Christopher Szwec

The International Laser Ranging Service (Carabajal et al. AGU2024) includes a number of multi-technique Core Sites which can be used to inter-compare different instruments and space technologies. Core stations which have each been occupied by more than one SLR system, as well as co-located VLBI systems provide a robust basis for monitoring advances in instrument development. The vertical resolution of SLR and VLBI systems has been established by Altamimi et al, AGU2024, who show scale agreement at the 1 mm level. The vertical agreement between SLR and VLBI systems at McDonald Geodetic Observatory, Wettzell Geodetic Observatory and the Matera Center for Space Geodesy is presented. The heights of these stations are seen to show no significant motion over periods which can extend for over 30 years. This stable behavior allows the combination of the strength of independent space techniques in a rigorous definition of the Reference Frame.

How to cite: Dunn, P., Husson, V., and Szwec, C.: Long Term Stability of the SLR and VLBI Geodetic Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1597, 2025.

EGU25-1646 | Orals | G2.2

On simulation studies for novel combination strategies of space geodetic techniques 

Anton Reinhold, Susanne Glaser, and Manuela Seitz

This effort as part of the research unit "Clock Metrology" funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) focuses on innovative strategies for combining all four space geodetic techniques—DORIS, GNSS, SLR, and VLBI—to significantly enhance the global Terrestrial Reference Frames (TRF) with the goal to achieve the GGOS (Global Geodetic Observing System) requirements of 1 mm accuracy and long-term stability of 1 mm/decade. To achieve this goal, a novel approach of combining the space geodetic techniques is being developed. A common target (CT) will be introduced at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell (GOW) to combine all the techniques at a common reference point. Additionally, a common clock (CC) will be established at GOW to reference the observations of all techniques to a single time frame. The impact of the CT and CC on the TRF combination is evaluated through simulations involving all four space geodetic techniques. In this study, we exhibit the results of the SLR, GNSS, and VLBI simulations of global station networks as reference solutions for the following implementation of CT and CC. As basis for these simulations, we used current state-of-the-art models and standards based on real observation data to determine realistic accuracy measures for today’s technique-specific observations. We assume a white noise of the observations with an amplitude corresponding to the noise derived from actual data analysis of the real observations for each technique. Subsequently, weekly normal equation systems from the simulated data were accumulated into a combined global TRF solution over a 7-year period to assess the impact on the derived station coordinates and velocities, as well as the Earth Rotation Parameters. The estimated corrections to the station positions remain within a few millimeters, indicating a consistent solution w.r.t a priori. Additionally, in order to perform the combination via a CC, extended software modifications are carried out as in the space geodetic data analysis the clock parameters are usually pre-eliminated and no longer available for further processing. Based on these modifications, first results of the novel combination of intra- and inter-techniques at GOW will be presented.

How to cite: Reinhold, A., Glaser, S., and Seitz, M.: On simulation studies for novel combination strategies of space geodetic techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1646, 2025.

EGU25-1655 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Statistical determination and analysis of the Euler pole parameters for NATRF2022 

Mohammad Ali Goudarzi

Estimation of Euler pole parameters (EPPs) is a critical step in developing NATRF2022, the upcoming realization of the North American (NA) terrestrial reference frame. These parameters characterize the tectonic motion of the NA plate relative to the ITRF2020/IGS20 reference frame. Improving the accuracy of EPPs reduces residual velocities within the plate, which in turn enhances the stability of geodetic coordinates and extends the validity period of the reference frame. The growing network of consistent, long-term continuously operating GNSS stations provides a robust and reliable source of velocity data for estimating EPPs. Currently, two methods are used for estimating EPPs: (1) solving the classic Euler’s pole theorem in inverse mode, based on the rigid plate assumption, and (2) modeling the deformation field of the tectonic plate to estimate parameters describing the net rotation of the deforming plate, consistent with the deforming plate hypothesis. Both methods are sensitive to the selection of GNSS stations, resulting in slight variations in the estimated EPPs. This sensitivity is further compounded for the NA tectonic plate due to the presence of non-secular and non-stationary deformation induced by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) across the plate, as well as the complex dynamics of the diffused boundary zone along its western margin. To address these challenges, a statistical algorithm based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) theory is proposed, offering unbiased parameter estimation for sufficiently large samples. The methodology begins with the selection of stations featuring stable monuments with at least three years of continuous time series. An adaptive grid comprising 50 to 100 cells is considered to ensure a homogeneous spatial distribution of the selected stations. Within each grid cell, one station is randomly selected with place back, and the EPPs are estimated using station velocities. This procedure is repeated many times following the Monte Carlo method to generate a large set of EPP estimates. Histograms of the estimated parameters are then formed to identify the underlying statistical distribution of the EPPs. Finally, the best values corresponding to the maximum likelihood probabilities are selected as the optimized EPPs. The resulting EPPs are then compared with those reported in previous studies, and the significance of the observed differences is evaluated in detail.

How to cite: Goudarzi, M. A.: Statistical determination and analysis of the Euler pole parameters for NATRF2022, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1655, 2025.

EGU25-2545 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

Modeling of highly stable GNSS ground and space clocks using piece-wise linear representations 

Jari Simon Widczisk, Benjamin Männel, and Jens Wickert

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are based on measurements of signal propagation time, so that clock information is required for both the transmitting satellite and the receiving ground station. In undifferenced GNSS network analyses, synchronization errors of the satellite and station clocks are usually estimated by epoch-wise biases. If, as is common in practice, white noise is assumed as stochastic behavior for the clocks, there are high correlations between the clock estimates and other geodetic parameters. While the satellite clock is correlated with the radial orbit component and geocenter parameters, the station clock shows high correlations with the station height coordinate and the tropospheric zenith delay. These effects can be reduced by introducing proper models for describing the clock characteristics. Especially for global network solutions, deterministic clock modeling is suitable to reduce a substantial number of clock estimates. However, adequate modeling requires a high degree of stability for the corresponding clocks.

In this contribution, we show preliminary results of modeling highly stable GNSS ground and space clocks using piece-wise linear representations. For the satellites, we select the rubidium clocks of the GPS IIF and IIIA blocks as well as the passive hydrogen maser clocks of the Galileo FOC spacecraft for modeling. In addition, a selection of hydrogen maser stations of the International GNSS Service (IGS) is also modeled. Over a period of several weeks, daily network solutions with and without piece-wise linear clock modeling are processed and then compared. We discuss different strategies and show the effects of various modeling options (length of split interval, parameter weighting) on the correlations of the estimated parameters.

How to cite: Widczisk, J. S., Männel, B., and Wickert, J.: Modeling of highly stable GNSS ground and space clocks using piece-wise linear representations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2545, 2025.

EGU25-4041 | Orals | G2.2

DTRF2020_u2023: The Update of DTRF2020 

Manuela Seitz, Mathis Bloßfeld, Sergei Rudenko, Julian Zeitlhoefler, and Detlef Angermann

To update the ITRS 2020 realizations which are based on observations from the geodetic space techniques VLBI, SLR, GNSS and DORIS until the end of 2020, the ITRS Product Center asked the Technique Centers (TCs) for an extension of these series by as consistent as possible operational series. However, the GNSS input series which formerly realized an own GNSS scale, the full history of data was recomputed by the IGS TC by adopting the ITRF2020 scale based on the VLBI and SLR scale contributions.

DTRF2020, calculated by DGFI-TUM, realizes the scale from VLBI and GNSS contributions and thus needs for its update IGS/GNSS series realizing the GNSS scale. Therefore, the IGS TC provided, in addition, an extension series consistent to the input series for the ITRS 2020 realization. Moreover, the GGFC provided extensions of the previous non-tidal loading (NTL) displacement time series as well as time series for new stations to be used in the DTRF2020 update to reduce non-linear station motions.

We extended the DTRF2020 by using the provided extension series and the NTL input data until 2023. We analyzed the extended station position, datum parameter (origin and scale) and Earth Orientation Parameter time series, introduced additional discontinuities and accounted for post-seismic deformation of stations affected by earthquakes.

We present the DTRF2020 update solution (i.e. DTRF2020-u2023) and discuss the consistency of the former and the extension series. In addition, we discuss the results of comparisons of the updates computed by the three ITRS Combination Centers, which reflect the internal accuracy achieved by today's ITRS realizations.

How to cite: Seitz, M., Bloßfeld, M., Rudenko, S., Zeitlhoefler, J., and Angermann, D.: DTRF2020_u2023: The Update of DTRF2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4041, 2025.

EGU25-4085 | Orals | G2.2

LARES-2 in the ILRS official products: analysis and current status 

David Sarrocco, Vincenza Luceri, Antonio Basoni, Francesco Vespe, and Mathis Blossfeld

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) regularly contributes to the maintenance of the reference frame by providing daily and weekly combined time series of station coordinates and Earth Rotation Parameters (ILRSA from the ILRS primary ASI Combination Center) derived from individual Analysis Centers (ACs) solutions, using LAGEOS-1/-2 and Etalon-1/-2 satellite data.

The inclusion of additional satellites in the ILRS official products has been under discussion since years within the ILRS Analysis Standing Committee and the launch of LARES-2 in July 2022 has been considered a real opportunity to improve the product quality. LARES-2 is a LAGEOS-type satellite specifically designed for high-accuracy satellite laser ranging.

The inclusion of LARES-2 as the fifth satellites of the constellation contributing to the routine products foresees a preliminary analysis to model stations' long-term systematic errors related to LARES-2.

The approach to manage the systematic errors is the same used for the ITRF2020 contributions: ACs simultaneously estimate station coordinates and range biases to determine a combined ILRSA set of long-term mean range biases for LARES-2, to be applied in the data analysis.

The identified systematic errors are reported in the ILRS Data Handling File (DHF), which is closely linked to the target signature model.

Preliminary time series of products including LAGEOS/ETALON/LARES-2 are available and an enhanced quality in the estimated station coordinates is evident, particularly in the UP component.

This presentation will address the status of the LARES-2 inclusion to the ILRS official products, emphasizing the quality of estimated parameters.

How to cite: Sarrocco, D., Luceri, V., Basoni, A., Vespe, F., and Blossfeld, M.: LARES-2 in the ILRS official products: analysis and current status, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4085, 2025.

EGU25-4664 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

Global geodetic parameter estimation using the combination of GPS, Galileo and LEO satellites 

Yehao Zhao, Keke Zhang, Xingxing Li, Yuanchen Fu, and Yongqiang Yuan

The global geodetic parameters are essential for the realization of an International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF), which has broad geophysical and geodetic applications. With well-distributed global tracking stations and continuous observations, GNSS is suited to providing high quality geodetic parameters, including geocenter coordinates (GCCs) and Earth rotation parameters (ERPs). However, the spurious draconitic signals have been observed in GNSS-based geodetic products. Fortunately, the fast development of multi-GNSS and LEO satellite techniques in recent years provides new opportunity to improve the determination of geodetic parameters by combining observations from constellations with different orbital characteristics. In this study, we perform the integrated precise orbit determination (IPOD) under the ITRF2020 with dual-system GPS/Galileo observations from the Sentinel-6A satellite and 61 ground stations for geodetic parameter estimation. The effects of the LEO solar radiation pressure (SRP) model are analyzed and the contribution of the multi-GNSS combination and the LEO is investigated.

Three Sentinel-6A macro models, from the manufacturer, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the University of Colorado and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (UoC/JPL), are used to perform GPS-based IPOD solutions to investigate the impact of LEO SRP model on geodetic parameter estimation. The relationship between the estimated constant SRP scale and sun elevation is first analyzed. The estimated SRP scale based on the UoC/JPL macro model is found to have a weaker correlation with sun elevation compared the other two macro models. By comparing the geodetic parameters obtained using different macro models, we find that the GCC-Z estimates are more sensitive to the LEO priori SRP model than the GCC-X/Y and ERPs, and the best solution with the smallest amplitude in 3 cpy frequency is achieved by UoC/JPL macro model.

Based on the UoC/JPL macro model, we further investigate the performance of the geodetic parameter estimation in IPOD with dual-system GPS and Galileo observations. The introduction of the LEO improves the ERPs estimates, with a reduction in the length of day (LoD) formal error of about 60%, and a reduction in the drift rate of the GNSS-derived dUT1 away from the IERS 20 C04 reference value of over 30%. The introduction of the LEO also improves the GCC estimates with a reduction in GCC-Z formal error and STD value by about 20% and 10% respectively. Compared to single system solution, the combination of GPS, Galileo and the LEO obtains the most stable GCC estimates with the smallest STD values, except for the GCC-Z for the period above 30 days, mainly due to the failure to eliminate the Galileo-induced 3 cpy spurious signal. However, the introduction of Sentinel-6A also induces the spurious annual signal due to its SRP model deficiency. Though this deficiency can be partly compensated by changing the parameterization of SRP scale factor from constant to piece-wise constant, the influence of residual errors of LEO SRP modelling is still visible in the Z component of GCC. These results indicate that refining the a priori macro model of LEO satellite is necessary to obtain accurate geodetic parameters in IPOD with multi-GNSS.

How to cite: Zhao, Y., Zhang, K., Li, X., Fu, Y., and Yuan, Y.: Global geodetic parameter estimation using the combination of GPS, Galileo and LEO satellites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4664, 2025.

EGU25-5046 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Initial Findings on Epoch-Wise Realization of a Regional Reference Frame Using Indian CORS Sub-Network Observations 

Ratnesh Kushwaha, Mathis Bloßfeld, Alexander Kehm, Nagarajan Balasubramanian, and Onkar Dikshit

A high-precision Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) is essential for accurately monitoring geophysical activities. Currently, India lacks its own Regional Reference Frame (RRF) and relies on the global frame for local applications. With the recent installation of more than 1000 GNSS stations forming the so called CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) network by the Survey of India (SoI), the need for a precise RRF for India has become evident.

The RRF can be realized using either a conventional secular Multi-Year Reference Frame (MRF) or a (geocentric) Epoch-based Reference Frame (ERF). An MRF is realized by aligning the regional network to a global frame such as the ITRF or IGS TRF. However, the accuracy of MRFs diminishes over time as coordinates are extrapolated beyond the observation period using linear velocities. Additionally, MRFs provide limited geophysical information and can’t be utilized with desired accuracy for quasi-instantaneous applications or after large earthquakes.

To address these limitations, this study aims to develop an ERF for the Indian CORS sub-network by adopting the methodology introduced by Kehm (2022) for creating a geocentric ERF in Latin America. The proposed ERF ensures that the frame's origin aligns with the Earth's instantaneous center of mass across all time scales within the observation period.

In this presentation, we will outline the approach to develop the Indian ERF, which involves combining weekly normal equations from global GNSS, SLR, and VLBI networks. Specifically, SLR determines the origin, SLR and VLBI jointly determine the scale, and a homogeneously distributed global GNSS network is used to realise the orientation of the frame. The results will be compared to those obtained using the conventional MRF realization approach. Furthermore, an independent validation strategy will be implemented to evaluate the accuracy of the developed ERF.

How to cite: Kushwaha, R., Bloßfeld, M., Kehm, A., Balasubramanian, N., and Dikshit, O.: Initial Findings on Epoch-Wise Realization of a Regional Reference Frame Using Indian CORS Sub-Network Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5046, 2025.

EGU25-5417 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Analysis and Comparison of Sub-daily Polar Motion Derived from BDS, GPS, GLONASS and Galileo 

Xia Yao, Xingxing Li, Yongqiang Yuan, and Hongjie Zheng

Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs), including polar motion (PM) and length of day, are crucial for describing the motion of the Earth's axis of rotation and linking the terrestrial and celestial reference system. ERPs can be categorized into long-term components and sub-daily components with periods shorter than two days. For the sub-daily ones, they reveal the impact of ocean tides, atmospheric tides, and other factors on Earth's rotation over short timescales, providing valuable insights into the dynamic process of Earth's motion. Compared to other techniques such as Satellite Laser Ranging, Very Long Baseline Interferometry, and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technique offers advantages such as a densely distributed global station network, low equipment costs, continuous data tracking and high data sampling rate, making it particularly suitable for studying sub-daily PMs.

Since 2020, the Beidou Satellite Navigation System (BDS) has been officially completed and put into operation. Comparing with GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo, BDS has hybrid constellations with MEO and IGSO satellites which could bring new features into the derived sub-daily PMs. Therefore, this study first focuses on the precision of sub-daily PMs derived from BDS only. All the sub-daily PMs is based on 3-arc-length solutions with a 1-h temporal resolution. The results show that, compared to MEO-only, the addition of IGSO can reduce PMX from 183 to 161μas. For PMY, the addition of IGSO shows a similar improvement, reducing it by approximately 10%. Secondly, we transforme the time series of sub-daily PMs from different systems into the frequency domain by Fast Fourier transform (FFT) to identify and analyze those tidal and non-tidal signals. The results of spectral analysis indicate that the more diverse constellation configuration can effectively reduce the impact of spurious signals especially nearby 28-h term. In addition, more detailed comparisons and analyses with respect to the PMs derived from GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo are also presented. Furthermore, we also analyze the impact of weighting scheme in multi-GNSS combined solutions. Properly adjusting the weights of BDS can effectively improve the accuracy of sub-daily PMs. Finally, we assessed the GNSS-based empirical models with three priori empirical models, IERS2010 model, Gipson model and Desai-Sibois model. Multi-GNSS model with different constellation configurations shows the best consistency with the priori model.

How to cite: Yao, X., Li, X., Yuan, Y., and Zheng, H.: Analysis and Comparison of Sub-daily Polar Motion Derived from BDS, GPS, GLONASS and Galileo, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5417, 2025.

EGU25-5546 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Simulation studies on VLBI tracking satellites and the potential to enhance TRF 

Han Liu, Xiancai Zou, Bingshi Liu, Minxing Zhao, and Juanxia Pan

The accuracy of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) realization is currently constrained by systematic errors among the four main space-geodetic techniques: GNSS, VLBI, SLR, and DORIS. Terrestrial local ties connect physical survey points from local surveys, which will introduce errors in the TRF and transform uncertainties across all geodetic observations. To achieve the GGOS goals of 1 mm accuracy and 0.1 mm/yr stability for TRF realization, space missions equipped with multiple space-geodetic techniques are proposed, such as GRASP (Geodetic Reference Antenna in Space), E-GRASP, and GENESIS. Space co-location will complement ground-based co-location and enhance the TRF.

We are currently developing the simulated space-geodetic observations of various missions and assessing their potential impact on the TRF including station coordinates, Earth Orientation Parameters, and geocenter. The simulations will take into account VLBI tracking GNSS satellites and geodetic satellites, considering three major error sources: measurement noise, clock error, and zenith wet delay. Through these thorough analyses, we will explore the requirements of this new type of observable. The novel measurement concept has the potential for not only solving the inconsistencies and biases between the different geodetic techniques, but also establishing frame ties between the kinematic and dynamic reference frames.

How to cite: Liu, H., Zou, X., Liu, B., Zhao, M., and Pan, J.: Simulation studies on VLBI tracking satellites and the potential to enhance TRF, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5546, 2025.

EGU25-6631 | Orals | G2.2

JTRF2020-u2022: The First Update of JTRF2020 

Claudio Abbondanza, Toshio M Chin, Richard S Gross, and Michael B Heflin

We report on JTRF2020-u2022, the first update of JTRF2020, the most recent terrestrial reference frame (TRF) solution computed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Determined with SREF -a square-root information filter and Dyer-McReynolds smoother algorithm, JPL frame products lend themselves to being easily updated as long as frame inputs from the four space-geodetic technique consistent with the frame-defining data set are available. 

Adopting the conceptual framework of Bayesian update inherent to any Kalman filter formulation, SREF uploads the latest estimate of JTRF2020 state and its covariance and updates it by assimilating at daily intervals the extended frame inputs made available by IGS (IGSR3-igr3.atx), IVS (ivs2023b), ILRS (ilrsav86), and IDS (idswd23) from 2021 through the end of 2022 (DOY 330, GPS Week 2237). Afterwards, with SREF running in forecast mode, station position predictions are generated through the end of 2027 (DOY 365, GPS Week 2503).    

Discussions will focus on the peculiarities of the extended frame inputs used to compute JTRF2020-u2022 in relation to those adopted to generate JTRF2020, on the data pre-processing itself, and on the way in which the updated frame is constructed . We outline properties of  the updated TRF in terms of its frame-defining transformation parameters and present a quality assessment of  JTRF2020-u2022.

How to cite: Abbondanza, C., Chin, T. M., Gross, R. S., and Heflin, M. B.: JTRF2020-u2022: The First Update of JTRF2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6631, 2025.

EGU25-7197 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

Common Clock for GNSS Receivers: Characterization of Parameters Estimated with GNSS Receivers Connected to the Same External High-Precision Clock 

Zhiying Wang, Urs Hugentobler, Benjamin Männel, and Julian Rodríguez-Villamizar

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) rely on one-way signal travel time measurements from satellites to receivers. To ensure accurate ranging, GNSS must estimate and compensate for clock offsets on at least one end of the transmitter-receiver system. Consequently, clock offsets are highly correlated with GNSS-derived parameters such as station coordinates, tropospheric delay estimates, satellite radial orbit parameters, and apparent geocenter coordinates. Improper handling of clock offsets can lead to their absorption into these parameters, degrading geodetic product accuracy. Traditionally, clocks have been handled within individual techniques without being specially addressed. However, some research efforts and experimental trials have explored using VLBI to synchronize clocks for GNSS and refining clock models to reduce correlations with other estimated parameters in GNSS, thereby improving overall precision.

With recent advancements, high-precision optical clocks and fiber-optic time transfer technologies provide new possibilities for enhancing clock synchronization in GNSS. Optical fiber offers a stable, interference-free medium for time and frequency transfer, eliminating atmospheric effects such as ionospheric and tropospheric delays that impact GNSS-based synchronization. Moreover, fiber-optic time transfer is inherently two-way, removing the need for external clock offset estimation. Thus, fiber-optic clock synchronization represents the most precise timing technique currently available. Establishing a common clock by connecting multiple GNSS receivers via optical fiber could significantly reduce the number of estimated clock parameters in GNSS solutions, leading to improved geodetic measurement precision and a more accurate geodetic reference frame.

Despite its potential, the approach of implementing a common clock with optical fiber for GNSS receivers remains largely untested. Although optical fiber links have been successfully used in clock synchronization, their integration into GNSS receiver clocking is still in an experimental stage. Notable existing efforts include: (1) the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, where multiple receivers are connected to a single clock via optical fiber, representing a local baseline setup, and (2) the GFZ experiment, where a receiver is linked to the ultra-stable clock of PTB, representing a regional baseline approach.

This study characterizes existing fiber-optic connections among GNSS receivers to identify practical challenges and evaluate their impact on GNSS parameter estimation. We process data from receivers sharing a common clock using Bernese GNSS Software. Initially, PPP will be performed to compare GNSS-derived clock parameters across receivers sharing a common clock, verifying the effectiveness of fiber-optic clock synchronization. Following this validation, we will leverage GNSS-derived clock parameters to evaluate inter-receiver clock differences measured via optical fiber. Subsequently, we will implement a strategy in which only one receiver’s clock parameters are estimated, using fiber-measured clock differences as a priori constraints for other receivers in the PPP solution. This approach reduces the number of estimated clock parameters and serves as a preliminary test of the feasibility of a GNSS common clock framework.

Future developments will focus on refining our analysis framework to enable simultaneous estimation of GNSS receivers operating under a common clock. This research contributes to the broader goal of integrating ultra-stable clocks into global GNSS networks, ultimately enhancing the stability of geodetic reference frames and improving GNSS-derived geodetic products.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Hugentobler, U., Männel, B., and Rodríguez-Villamizar, J.: Common Clock for GNSS Receivers: Characterization of Parameters Estimated with GNSS Receivers Connected to the Same External High-Precision Clock, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7197, 2025.

EGU25-7460 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

Applying Clock Ties in GNSS and VLBI Integrated Solution 

Jungang Wang, Kyriakos Balidakis, Robert Heinkelmann, Maorong Ge, and Harald Schuh

The global high-precision Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) is determined through the combination of the four space geodetic techniques: VLBI, SLR, GNSS, and DORIS. The multi-technique combination heavily relies on the common objects or parameters, i.e., the ties, which link the different techniques. Current realizations of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) employ local ties and Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP). Additional ties such as tropospheric ties and satellite orbit ties are being explored. Another promising approach is using clock ties, where co-located instruments connected to a common clock enable intra- and inter-technique clock tie modeling.

Clock ties between GNSS and VLBI are of particular interest as (1) GNSS provides dense observations at every epoch, allowing the epoch-wise estimation of clock parameters, and (2) VLBI typically relies on clock modeling due to the insufficient number of observations per epoch. Using the GNSS and VLBI co-location stations during VLBI CONT campaigns, we demonstrate inter-technique clock agreements within 0.1 and 0.2 ns for short (24-hour) and long (15-day) periods, respectively. We further explore the application of clock ties in the GNSS and VLBI integrated solution, focusing on the impact on station coordinates and tropospheric delays. We also address the challenges of modeling deterministic and stochastic components of the clock ties, highlighting their potential to improve the precision of TRF realizations.

How to cite: Wang, J., Balidakis, K., Heinkelmann, R., Ge, M., and Schuh, H.: Applying Clock Ties in GNSS and VLBI Integrated Solution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7460, 2025.

EGU25-8525 | Orals | G2.2

Scale and Geocenter determination by GNSS only 

Patrick Dumitraschkewitz, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, and Babara Süsser-Rechberger

A Global Geodetic Reference Frame (GGRF) is a fundamental requirement to relate measurements taken from anywhere on the Earth. It provides the basis on which a broad spectrum of scientific and industrial applications rely, and is crucial in any field where precise location information is necessary, including monitoring climate change, agriculture, and changes in groundwater.
The working group Satellite Geodesy at the Institute of Geodesy (IFG), Graz University of Technology (TUG) provide a wide range of of products which are processed and published to the international community such as gravity field ans mass transport solutions, Precise Orbit Data (POD) of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) station networks and much more. The products are utilized by various organizations, such as the International Combination Service for Time-variable Gravity Fields (COST-G) of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG), the International GNSS Service (IGS) or the European Copernicus POD Service Quality Working Group (CPOD). A consistent and accurate GGRF is the foundation of all our products and, as such, is essential to ensure the quality of our in-house computed products.
A GGRF is established and maintained by an international community, culminating in the International Terrestrial Reference Frames (ITRF). The latest version, ITRF2020, is based on four space geodetic techniques: GNSS, VLBI, SLR, and DORIS. In ITRF2020, GNSS was ignored in the calculation of the geocenter motion and the estimation of the reference system scale because it was considered too inaccurate. 
In this work we present our approach to estimate the geocenter motion and to improve the scale estimation using only GNSS. 
We discuss the problems of combined estimation of geocenter motion, reference system scale and satellite antenna center offsets and variations in GNSS only reference frame estimation. We analyze the results and implications for GNSS products and station position time series.

 

How to cite: Dumitraschkewitz, P., Mayer-Gürr, T., and Süsser-Rechberger, B.: Scale and Geocenter determination by GNSS only, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8525, 2025.

EGU25-9053 | Orals | G2.2

Progress Update on a Global Collaboration for GNSS Receiver Antenna Calibration: Results from the IGS Ring Calibration Campaign (IGS ringCalVal) 

Tobias Kersten, Andria Billich, Igor Sutyagin, Johannes Kröger, and Steffen Schön

GNSS station operators and network analysers face the challenge of achieving consistent phase center corrections (PCCs), particularly since multi-GNSS calibrations are not available for all antennas. To address this issue, a global initiative involving nine calibration organizations has launched a comprehensive ring calibration campaign. This collaboration aims to enhance the consistency of calibration methods and establish a robust quality assessment framework by sharing six structurally diverse antenna samples for calibration. The recommended methods by the International GNSS Service (IGS), including anechoic chamber and field robot calibration methods, are participating with the aim of defining a global benchmark for the accuracy and reliability of receiver antenna PCCs.

Over the past year, the campaign has made significant progress. Measures and methods to easily compare the PCC patterns and define a benchmark value for consistent PCCs have been established. In this contribution, we present the latest results of this campaign. We demonstrate in the pattern domain that the consistency among the system/frequencies per receiver antenna design varies around an uncertainty level of ±1 mm, with an elevation-dependent effect also needing consideration. In the position domain, we present system-specific PPP results per antenna and facility. For example, the variation among different antennas and facilities for classical GPS ionosphere free linear combination is generally below 2-3 mm for the horizontal component and below 5 mm for the vertical component when comparing calibration sets among the various facilities. We also present comprehensive and effective comparison methods for the pattern domain and evaluation tools for the position domain that are essential for establishing a globally fair and transparent benchmark for receiver antenna PCC calibration and verification processes.

How to cite: Kersten, T., Billich, A., Sutyagin, I., Kröger, J., and Schön, S.: Progress Update on a Global Collaboration for GNSS Receiver Antenna Calibration: Results from the IGS Ring Calibration Campaign (IGS ringCalVal), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9053, 2025.

High precision satellite laser ranging observations to the geodetic spherical satellites are now available for almost five decades, and their analyses are critical to the ongoing realisation of an accurate terrestrial reference frame. Inevitably and importantly the ground-station technologies have improved considerably over time, such that systematic range-measurement errors are now for the major stations at the few mm level. Such hardware improvements, as well as improved analyses procedures instigated by the ILRS, have prompted a review of the measurements made mostly by a number of European network stations in the early 2000s that used time-of-flight equipment known to have systematic, range-dependent errors of up to 10mm. These timers were investigated at the UK Space Geodesy Facility, Herstmonceux in the early 2000s and the range dependencies measured against a highly accurate event timer; however, some of the implications of those results have not yet fully been utilised in data processing for ITRF realisations.

In this poster we review this work and report on our new data analyses that include the range-dependent corrections, commenting on the impact on the quality of the stations’ height time series.

How to cite: Appleby, G. and Susnik, A.: Further progress to improve the accuracy of satellite laser ranging data: impact on geodetic height time series of removal of range-dependent systematic errors at some European stations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10241, 2025.

EGU25-11071 | Orals | G2.2

Geodetic Technique Combinations at the Observation Level: Advancements in Terrestrial Reference Frame Recovery 

Athina Peidou, Bruce Haines, Willy Bertiger, Alex Conrad, Shailen Desai, David Murphy, Charles Naudet, and Paul Ries

JPL has developed a terrestrial reference frame (TRF) based on combining space geodetic techniques at the observation level. The current version includes observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI); and it has been shown to be competitive with the international standard (ITRF2020) in terms of fundamental frame parameters (origin and scale) and their temporal evolution, both linear and seasonal. In this work, we build on the current processing infrastructure and add Doppler Orbitography by Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite (DORIS) observations to the combination. The four-technique solution strategy uses space ties in low-Earth orbit to connect SLR, GPS and DORIS and ground ties to connect VLBI to GPS. This solution can be viewed as a pathfinder for the upcoming GENESIS mission which will provide a space tie for all 4 techniques. Additionally, we revise parametrization of the SLR range biases to improve retrieval of the scale. Finally, we discuss future enhancements to the TRF realization process. These enhancements include recovering the time-variable gravity field by jointly using observations from the frame realization and GRACE / GRACE-Follow On missions.

How to cite: Peidou, A., Haines, B., Bertiger, W., Conrad, A., Desai, S., Murphy, D., Naudet, C., and Ries, P.: Geodetic Technique Combinations at the Observation Level: Advancements in Terrestrial Reference Frame Recovery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11071, 2025.

EGU25-11124 | Posters on site | G2.2

Analyzing the Impact of GPS Clock as the modelled DORIS USO on Station Position Estimation for Sentinel Satellites 

Hugues Capdeville, Adrien Mezerette, Théo Gravalon, Jean-Michel Lemoine, John Moyard, Flavien Mercier, and Alexandre Couhert

The DORIS Ultra-Stable Oscillators (USO) onboard Sentinel satellites are sensitive to the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) effect. While this sensitivity is not particularly significant for the precise orbit determination (POD) of the Sentinel-3A, Sentinel-3B, and Sentinel-6A satellites, it becomes crucial when estimating station positions. Previous studies have shown notable degradation in station position accuracy for stations located within the SAA region when using single-satellite solutions.
This study aims to evaluate the impact of using GPS clock as the modelled DORIS USO, provided by the CNES POD team, on station position estimation derived from single-satellite solutions of Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-6A. Single-satellite solutions were computed both with and without GPS clock corrections and were compared to the SARAL single-satellite solution, which serves as a reference due to its USO being minimally or not at all affected by the SAA. Our analysis investigates whether incorporating GPS clock corrections as a modeled DORIS USO can effectively mitigate the impact of the SAA on station position estimations in the affected regions. 

How to cite: Capdeville, H., Mezerette, A., Gravalon, T., Lemoine, J.-M., Moyard, J., Mercier, F., and Couhert, A.: Analyzing the Impact of GPS Clock as the modelled DORIS USO on Station Position Estimation for Sentinel Satellites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11124, 2025.

EGU25-11575 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Impact of Different TRF Realizations on SLR Data Processing in the Benese GNSS Software 

Linda Geisser, Andreja Susnik, Daniel Arnold, Rolf Dach, and Adrian Jäggi

Global Terrestrial Reference Frames (TRFs) are regularly provided by three International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) combination centres (CCs) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), located at the Institut national de l’information géographique et forestière (IGN), at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and at the Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut (DGFI) of the Technical University of Munich (TUM). All three CCs use different methodologies and assumptions to compute a global TRF.

In the framework of the IAG-IERS Joint Working Group 1.2.4 for the evaluation of the terrestrial reference frames, we analyze the impact of three different 2020 TRF realizations (provided by the CCs) on Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data processing using a development version of the Bernese GNSS Software (BSW).

First, to obtain the total effect of the TRF realization on the SLR satellite orbits and the post-fit observation residuals, the station coordinates are fixed to the a priori values. Afterwards, the set of excepted core stations used for a proper datum definition is compared for the different TRFs. Finally, a state-of-the-art SLR data processing is performed, where orbit parameters and range biases along with global geodetic parameters, e.g., Earth rotation parameters and station coordinates, are co-estimated.

How to cite: Geisser, L., Susnik, A., Arnold, D., Dach, R., and Jäggi, A.: Impact of Different TRF Realizations on SLR Data Processing in the Benese GNSS Software, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11575, 2025.

EGU25-11660 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

A comparison of ITRF2020, DTRF2020 and JTRF2020 

Julien Barnéoud, Paul Rebischung, Kevin Gobron, Maylis de la Serve, Xavier Collilieux, and Zuheir Altamimi

New realizations of the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) were recently released by the three ITRS combination centers: ITRF2020 by IGN (France), DTRF2020 by DGFI-TUM (Germany) and JTRF2020 by JPL (USA). The three solutions are based on the same reprocessed data from the four space geodetic techniques (DORIS, GNSS, SLR, VLBI). However, the strategies used by the three ITRS centers to combine these input data into their respective solutions differ in several key aspects, such as the modeling of time-varying station trajectories, the connection of the station networks of the four techniques into a unique common frame, and the choices made to define the origin and scale of that frame.

This presentation compares the ITRF2020, DTRF2020 and JTRF2020 solutions and discusses how different aspects of the combination strategies employed by the three ITRS centers affect their solutions in terms of origin, scale and geometry. This comparison and discussion covers two main aspects: (1) individual station trajectories in the three solutions, and their ability to accurately describe the Earth’s time-varying shape, and (2) origins, scales (and orientations) of the station coordinates of each technique in the three solutions.

How to cite: Barnéoud, J., Rebischung, P., Gobron, K., de la Serve, M., Collilieux, X., and Altamimi, Z.: A comparison of ITRF2020, DTRF2020 and JTRF2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11660, 2025.

EGU25-11796 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

A new approach for GNSS time-series analysis with focus on uncertainty and sensitivity 

Hamed Karimi, Urs Hugentobler, Amir M. Abolghasem, Mahsa Heydari, and Anke M. Friedrich

Earth deformation monitoring is an important aspect in the realization and investigation of reference frame. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is well-established technique to estimate the Earth surface velocity field and the deformation rates at the location of permanent stations. We make use of GNSS coordinate time-series to estimate horizontal and vertical velocity fields. However, one of the challenges is the superposition of a variety of signals and the contribution of noise and random processes in the GNSS time-series that adds to the complexities in extraction of the signal of interest in a straightforward manner. Therefore, we need to employ signal processing methods in the analysis of GNSS time-series signal separation or mode decomposition. In addition, the geometry of GNSS positioning and some other effects, e.g., solar radiation pressure-induced draconitic year etc. cannot be neglected. On the other hand, because of unpredictable mechanisms, e.g., earthquakes, coordinate time-series may experience discontinuities. For this reason, we employ mathematical tests to detect, estimate and remove these mechanisms to conclude the velocity field. In addition to signal separation and estimation of a realistic velocity field, the uncertainty estimation is also important for geoscientific applications. For this purpose, we take advantage of the variance and covariance component estimation methods to estimate not only a realistic velocity field, but also for realistic estimation of uncertainties. Studying of uncertainties is of importance and applicable in the sensitivity analysis. In some cases, we would like to know the sensitivity of the GNSS time-series to specific signals, e.g., solid Earth and mantle signals etc. In this study, we will present our work-in-progress approach for GNSS time-series analysis by combining data-driven and analytical approaches to have a better understanding of GNSS time-series with focus on the velocity field of our study area in central Europe.

How to cite: Karimi, H., Hugentobler, U., Abolghasem, A. M., Heydari, M., and Friedrich, A. M.: A new approach for GNSS time-series analysis with focus on uncertainty and sensitivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11796, 2025.

EGU25-12120 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

The contribution of multi-LEOs to geocenter motion estimation 

Longjiang Tang, Benjamin Männel, Jungang Wang, Liangwei Nie, and Jens Wickert

To ensure inter-operability and consistency of various geodetic products for Solid Earth science and operational geodesy applications, a long-term global terrestrial reference frame is required, i.e., the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) and its realization, the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). As one of the key parameters in the determination of the ITRF, geocenter motion must be precisely estimated. Space geodetic techniques such as Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS), and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), which connect satellites and ground stations, are capable of determining geocenter motion. However, only the SLR technique is currently included in the realization of the ITRF, despite GNSS being widely regarded as a promising technology. Compared to SLR-based solutions, GNSS exhibits lower accuracy due to various modeling issues, including deficiencies in non-gravitational force models. In recent years, numerous studies have demonstrated the significant potential for improving geocenter coordinate estimation through the integration of ground-based observations and space-based observations from low Earth orbiters (LEOs). Nevertheless, the full contribution of LEOs to geocenter motion estimation remains underexplored, largely due to the limited temporal coverage and the small number of LEOs available..

To evaluate the extent of associated improvements, a network of 150 ground tracking stations and up to 13 LEOs (GRACE-A/B/C/D, SWARM-A/B/C, JASON-1/2/3, SENTINEL-3A/3B, and SENTINEL-6A) was processed over a 20-year period (2004–2024). Three solutions were investigated: (1) a reference solution utilizing only ground-based GNSS observations; (2) a combined ground- and space-based solution employing a reduced-dynamic (DYN) strategy for LEO orbit determination; and (3) a combined ground- and space-based solution employing a kinematic (KIN) strategy for LEO orbit determination. All solutions were implemented in accordance with the processing strategy of the IGS's 3rd reprocessing campaign.

In this contribution, we evaluate contribution of space-based observations to geocenter motion estimation through spectral analysis and external comparisons. Significant improvements are observed in the combined ground- and space-based solutions, particularly in enhancing geocenter motion stability and mitigating certain artificial signals. Among the three solutions, the GNSS/LEO integrated solution employing the KIN strategy for LEOs demonstrates a substantial reduction in draconitic errors compared to the others.

How to cite: Tang, L., Männel, B., Wang, J., Nie, L., and Wickert, J.: The contribution of multi-LEOs to geocenter motion estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12120, 2025.

EGU25-12493 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Comparison of near-field delay models for Earth-orbiting satellites 

Hakan Sert, Ozgur Karatekin, and Veronique Dehant

The classical VLBI delay model is built on the assumption that incoming radiowaves are planar, which holds true for observations of distant celestial radio sources due to their immense distances. However, when applied to VLBI observations of satellites in near-Earth orbit, this assumption becomes inadequate, as the curvature of the wavefronts cannot be neglected. Accurately modeling of these delays is crucial for achieving the precision required in satellite-based VLBI studies. To address this challenge, several near-field delay models have been proposed in the literature. In this study, we focus on four near-field VLBI delay models, comparing their methodologies, and resulting accuracy across a range of orbital configurations. By systematically evaluating these models under varying geometric and dynamic conditions, we aim to identify their strengths, limitations, and potential discrepancies.

How to cite: Sert, H., Karatekin, O., and Dehant, V.: Comparison of near-field delay models for Earth-orbiting satellites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12493, 2025.

EGU25-12548 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Consistency of BDS-3 transmit antenna phase center offsets 

Junqiang Li and Jing Guo

Information about satellite antenna phase center offsets (PCOs) is crucial for high-precision applications of global navigation satellite systems. Pre-launch manufacturer calibrations of the PCOs are available for all individual BDS satellites and three frequencies: B1, B2, and B3. With the imminent retirement of BDS-2 and the superior quality of B1C/B2a signals, the International GNSS Service (IGS) has launched a campaign for BDS-3 and QZSS phase center correction (PCC) calibration. However, only the IF combination of B1C/B2a is required. Considering the upcoming multi-GNSS and multi-frequency applications, the consistency of PCO values across different frequencies and GNSS is important.

We present the estimation of BDS-3 satellite antenna PCCs consistent with the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2020) from the ionosphere-free linear combinations of B1I/B3I and B1C/B2a. The results demonstrate that the nadir-angle-dependent phase center variations (PCVs) of the same satellite block type have fairly good consistency. The mean horizontal PCOs of the different frequencies agree at the millimeter level. The X-PCOs show a bias of about 1 cm compared to the manufacturer calibrations, whereas the Y-PCOs are free of such bias. For Z-PCOs, some SECM satellites exhibit unexpected long-term variations and/or abrupt jumps, while all CAST satellites remain stable. The mean estimated values of B1C/B2a and B1I/B3I for BDS-3M-CAST, BDS-3M-SECM, and BDS-3I-CAST are (-15.9, -13.5), (-17.8, -3.0), and (+26.9, +24.0) cm larger than the CSNO values, respectively.

By applying the estimated PCCs instead of the CSNO values, the precise orbit precision can be improved by 3.6-12.2%, and the scale factors determined by BDS solutions exhibit good consistency with the IGS20 frame, with mean scale differences below 0.10 ppb for both frequency combinations.

Furthermore, CSNO values for SECM satellites are excluded from delivering the TRF scale by BDS-3 as they still remain questionable. Although the scale delivered by GPS and Galileo shows good consistency, with +0.84 and +0.73 ppb compared to ITRF2020, the scale difference of BDS-3 with respect to ITRF2020 is -0.84 and -0.92 for B1C/B2a and B1I/B3I. These results demonstrate the consistency of different frequencies for BDS-3 but also highlight the discrepancy within GNSS, specifically between BDS-3 and GPS/Galileo.

How to cite: Li, J. and Guo, J.: Consistency of BDS-3 transmit antenna phase center offsets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12548, 2025.

EGU25-12833 | Orals | G2.2

IDS contribution to the second update of the ITRF2020 

Guilhem Moreaux, Frank Lemoine, Hugues Capdeville, Petr Štěpánek, Michiel Otten, Samuel Nahmani, Arnaud Pollet, and Patrick Schreiner

In the context of its contribution to the second yearly update of the 2020 realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2020), the International DORIS Service (IDS) has undertaken the estimation of DORIS station positions and velocities, as well as Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs), derived from DORIS data. These computations are based on the latest weekly multi-satellite series from the five IDS Analysis Centers and the IDS Associated Analysis Center, covering data from 2024 and 2021 backward.

The primary objectives of this study are to evaluate the DORIS contribution to this update of the ITRF2020 in terms of: (1) geocenter motion and scale, (2) station positions and week-to-week position repeatability, (3) EOPs, and (4) a cumulative position and velocity solution. Additionally, this study examines the benefits of new models as well as the implementation of South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) mitigation strategies on specific DORIS missions. Particular focus is placed on the enhanced stability of the IDS-derived scale since late 2012.

How to cite: Moreaux, G., Lemoine, F., Capdeville, H., Štěpánek, P., Otten, M., Nahmani, S., Pollet, A., and Schreiner, P.: IDS contribution to the second update of the ITRF2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12833, 2025.

EGU25-13470 | Posters on site | G2.2

Estimation of the Length of Day (LOD) from recent DORIS Observations 

Petr Stepanek, Vikash Kumar, and Vratislav Filler

This study investigates the estimation of the Length of Day (LOD) using DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) RINEX data from 2015 to 2023, comparing results with  the IERS 20 C04 model. Observations from 10 satellites were analyzed using DORIS-specific modification of the Bernese GNSS software, with varying durations of data availability across the nine years. The analysis explores the variability in Earth's rotation, attributing changes to dynamic factors influencing angular momentum. Various solution versions  with different parameter constraints were evaluated. Statistical analysis reveals that the low constrained cross track once per revolution parameters provided less  reliable results.

Key findings reveal a close alignment between DORIS-derived LOD values and the IERS 20 C04 model, for satellite combinations, with a weighted mean of 7 µs and a weighted standard deviation of 87 µs . Single-satellite analyses highlight the contributions of specific satellites, such as Cryosat, Saral, and Sentinel-6, in capturing unique geophysical processes. Improved data precision and modeling were observed over the years, reflecting advancements in satellite instrumentation and operational protocols. Statistical analysis emphasizes combining multiple satellite datasets for more reliable LOD estimates, as single-satellite solutions showed higher variability and biases.

Spectral analysis identifies dominant periodic signals, such as annual and semi-annual cycles, and variations induced by tidal and orbital mismodeling. The impact of relativistic effects was evaluated, demonstrating the significant role of Lense-Thirring corrections in precise LOD modeling. A comparison of different subdaily  motion models revealed subtle differences in periodic signal amplitudes. This work underscores the possibility of precise LOD estimation from DORIS data, on condition of high-quality satellite data and refined modeling techniques for accurate Earth rotation studies, providing insights into temporal variability in LOD and contributing to geodetic and geophysical research.

How to cite: Stepanek, P., Kumar, V., and Filler, V.: Estimation of the Length of Day (LOD) from recent DORIS Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13470, 2025.

EGU25-13490 | Posters on site | G2.2

Update on the activities of the NASA GSFC/JCET ILRS Analysis Center 

Magdalena Kuzmicz-Cieslak, Keith D. Evans, Alexandre Belli, and Frank G. Lemoine

The NASA GSFC/UMBC JCET ILRS Analysis Center supports the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) by operating as an Analysis Center (AC), submitting regular SINEX solutions on a daily and weekly basis, acting as the backup combination center (ILRSB), and conducting validation of ILRS tracking stations. These validations are essential for new stations or stations implementing significant changes. In support of the ILRS Analysis Standing Committee (ASC), the JCET AC processes data to the ILRS “ITRF” satellites (LAGEOS-1, LAGEOS-2, LARES, LARES-2, Etalon-1, and Etalon-2) and submits different SINEX solutions containing Earth orientation parameters and station coordinates daily and weekly. We provide an overview of these analysis activities and present the methods and results of our recent validation efforts, benchmarking the ILRSB results with the results obtained by ILRSA. We summarize the recent contributions of the Analysis Center, including the v85 (ITRF2020 & extension contributions), v80, v180 (LAGEOS1, LAGEOS2, Etalon1-2), as well as v90, v190 (including LARES-2). Additionally, we report on the validation activities that we perform for the ILRS Analysis Standing Committee, where the performance of new stations or stations undergoing system upgrades are evaluated with respect to the quality of their precision of their data and their bias stability. ILRS Stations that have undergone validation in the last six months include Matera (7941), and Yebes (7817). 

How to cite: Kuzmicz-Cieslak, M., Evans, K. D., Belli, A., and Lemoine, F. G.: Update on the activities of the NASA GSFC/JCET ILRS Analysis Center, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13490, 2025.

EGU25-14680 | Posters on site | G2.2

BDS and QZSS in CODE's final solution -- assessment of the impact  

Rolf Dach, Elmar Brockmann, Daniel Arnold, Maciej Kalarus, Martin Lasser, Stefan Schaer, Pascal Stebler, and Adrian Jäggi

CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) acts as one of the analysis centers of the International GNSS Service (IGS). One of the most important products are the final series providing -- among others -- GNSS satellite orbits, satellite clock corrections and station coordinates. Currently it includes GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo satellites. The final solution series shall provide the user community a direct access to the IGS20 reference frame (the IGS-specific realization of the ITRF2020).

Regarding this purpose, the extension of the final products to other systems, in particular BDS and QZSS need a careful consideration not to degrade the access to the reference frame. We present a step-by-step inclusion of BDS (only satellites in MEO orbits) and all BDS satellites (apart from those ones in GEO orbits) using the new combined satellite antenna offsets recently computed by the IGS. Another investigation is related to the QZSS satellites where pre-launch satellite antenna calibrations are available.

As a result of the study, a potential extension of the CODE final solution series to a more complete multi-GNSS product is decided. 

How to cite: Dach, R., Brockmann, E., Arnold, D., Kalarus, M., Lasser, M., Schaer, S., Stebler, P., and Jäggi, A.: BDS and QZSS in CODE's final solution -- assessment of the impact , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14680, 2025.

EGU25-15312 | Orals | G2.2

Evaluating VLBI Scenarios for Genesis: Orbital and Observational Configurations 

Lisa Kern, Helene Wolf, Sofie Steinmetz, and Johannes Böhm

Genesis is an upcoming satellite mission by the European Space Agency (ESA) that will integrate multiple space geodetic techniques on a single satellite at an altitude of 6000 km, including a dedicated Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) transmitter. This innovative, dynamic space geodetic observatory aims to establish highly accurate and continuous space ties, significantly enhancing the accuracy and stability of Terrestrial Reference Frames (TRFs). Including a VLBI transmitter will enable observations to Genesis using existing VGOS antennas and infrastructure, but several technical challenges must be addressed to ensure the success of VLBI observations.

A key open question is the choice of the satellite’s orbit, whether polar (97°) or inclined (60°). Additionally, the allocation of observation time between satellite and quasar observations must be carefully optimized. While sufficient VLBI observations of Genesis are needed to estimate accurate station positions, maintaining a good sky coverage of quasar observations is essential for precise tropospheric delay modeling, the major error source in VLBI measurements.

This simulation study addresses these points by evaluating various observation scenarios for two VGOS station networks, considering different orbital configurations and observation time distributions. Based on the determination of TRFs from weekly VLBI sessions over a two-year investigation period, we aim to identify the optimal setup for VLBI observations of Genesis.

How to cite: Kern, L., Wolf, H., Steinmetz, S., and Böhm, J.: Evaluating VLBI Scenarios for Genesis: Orbital and Observational Configurations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15312, 2025.

EGU25-15635 | Posters on site | G2.2

DORIS IGN-IPGP/JPL Analysis Center: Current Status and Future Developments  

Arnaud Pollet, Samuel Nahmani, and William Bertiger

This study outlines the current status of DORIS data processing using the GipsyX software at the IGN-IPGP/JPL analysis center within the International DORIS Service (IDS). We detail the methodological evolution implemented since late 2023 for the ITRF2020-u2024, coinciding with the operational reactivation of the analysis center (AC).

Our analysis focuses on a comparative assessment of precise orbit determination (POD) results against SSALTO orbits, positioning estimates relative to the DPOD2020 reference frame, and Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs) against the EOPC04 series. This enables a thorough evaluation of the consistency and accuracy of our products relative to established benchmarks.

In addition to describing these advancements, we highlight ongoing and planned developments aimed at enhancing processing capabilities. Among these, we present preliminary results from simultaneous multi-satellite data analysis, which incorporates separate modeling of ground and satellite clocks. These developments are expected to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of DORIS-derived geodetic products, ultimately contributing to the broader geophysical and climate-monitoring goals of the IDS.

How to cite: Pollet, A., Nahmani, S., and Bertiger, W.: DORIS IGN-IPGP/JPL Analysis Center: Current Status and Future Developments , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15635, 2025.

EGU25-15776 | Orals | G2.2

Overview of Genesis - an ESA mission at the Foundation of Navigation 

Sara Gidlund, Gaia Fusco, Pierre Waller, Catherine Morlet, Franco Perez Lissi, Evelina Sakalauskaite, Werner Enderle, Erik Schoenemann, Jean-Christophe Berton, Francesco Gini, and Vicente Navarro

Genesis is an ESA mission dedicated to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Science, conducted by the ESA Navigation Directorate. Its primary objective is the contribution to the improvement of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) accuracy (1mm) and long-term stability (0.1mm/year). Secondary objectives include the contribution to a high number of other scientific disciplines (geodesy, geodynamics, earth rotation, geophysics, earth gravity field, atmosphere and ionosphere sciences, metrology, relativity…) [1].

On the industrial side, the company OHB Italia has been contracted by ESA as prime for the development, qualification, launch and 2 years operation of the mission, with a launch date in 2028 [2]. Antwerp Space (B), as the major sub-contractor of OHB-I, oversees the payload and geodetic instruments. Industrial activities were kicked-off in April 2024, the System Requirements Review was successfully closed-out in Q4 2024, and work is on-going towards a Preliminary Design Review in Q4 2025.

In parallel, on the scientific side, after a first successful Genesis Workshop held in February 2024 [3], a Genesis Science Exploitation Team was set-up and members appointed. The Genesis Science Exploitation Team are actively supporting the mission development (in particular consolidation of requirements) and will play a key role in its future exploitation.

The presentation will provide a high-level description of the mission, and provide the  programmatic status of Genesis.

 

[1]: Delva et al. Earth, Planets and Space 75, 5 (2023)

[2]: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Satellite_navigation/ESA_kicks_off_two_new_navigation_missions

[3]: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Satellite_navigation/The_geodetic_community_meets_Genesis

How to cite: Gidlund, S., Fusco, G., Waller, P., Morlet, C., Perez Lissi, F., Sakalauskaite, E., Enderle, W., Schoenemann, E., Berton, J.-C., Gini, F., and Navarro, V.: Overview of Genesis - an ESA mission at the Foundation of Navigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15776, 2025.

EGU25-16930 | Orals | G2.2

IAG-IERS Joint Working Group 1.2.4 on the evaluation of the Terrestrial Reference Frames 

Andreja Susnik, Guilhem Moreaux, Dimitrios Ampatzidis, Hana Krasna, Linda Geisser, and Manuela Seitz

In mid-2024, the IAG-IERS Joint Working Group 1.2.4 was established to complement the evaluation of the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) realizations by the three ITRS combination centres (CC) of IERS with a special focus on the intercomparison of different global Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) solutions. The assessment aims at investigating conceptual differences of the three global ITRS realizations based on today’s user and application requirements. The main objectives of the JWG 1.2.4 include (i) the comparison of the combination strategies followed by the IERS ITRS CC; (ii) the assessment/quantification of station position time series differences between the ITRS realizations and w.r.t. geophysical models (e.g., loading displacements): (iii) the development and promotion of alternative rigorous (and independent) methods for the intercomparison of global TRF solutions (e.g., POD of low-, medium- and high-Earth-orbiting satellites); (iv) the development of methods and procedures for the quality control of TRF solutions.

Following a brief presentation of the structure of the JWG, we will give a status of its current activities. Then, we will introduce some of the benchmarks the JWG has identified to assess the quality of both global and regional TRF solutions. Finally, these benchmarks will be illustrated by their use on the latest ITRS 2020 realizations.

How to cite: Susnik, A., Moreaux, G., Ampatzidis, D., Krasna, H., Geisser, L., and Seitz, M.: IAG-IERS Joint Working Group 1.2.4 on the evaluation of the Terrestrial Reference Frames, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16930, 2025.

EGU25-18387 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

Observing GNSS Satellites with the AuScope VLBI Array: A Testbed for the VLBI Component of the GENESIS Mission 

David Schunck, Lucia McCallum, Jamie McCallum, and Tiege McCarthy

Set for launch in 2028, geodesy’s flagship mission GENESIS is equipped with the instruments of the four space geodetic techniques. The co-location satellite aims to improve the accuracy and stability of future realizations of the ITRF. However, VLBI observations to satellites are not standard and are not performed routinely yet. In the past, observations were limited to specific telescopes and setups. At the moment, most VLBI antennas are not capable of observing currently available satellite signals. This makes testing difficult, although further research on the VLBI component of GENESIS is urgently needed to achieve the accuracy for the mission goals. We present the newly accessible capability of the Australian VGOS telescopes to observe GNSS satellites in L-band.  With this new discovery, we are able to generate geodetic delay observables with a full continental-wide telescope array on a routine basis in the style of IVS observations. In particular, we report on a series of successful observations to satellites of the GPS, Galileo and BeiDou constellations with the AuScope 12-m antennas in Hobart, Katherine and Yarragadee using the standard VGOS equipment. We describe the experimental setup, signal chain and key developments enabling these observations. Furthermore, we report on the ongoing efforts in the fringe fitting phase with critical effects on the delay. This crucial development is a valuable opportunity to further develop VLBI observations to satellites in preparation for the GENESIS mission. In addition, such observations could realize the first-ever inter-technique ties between VLBI and GNSS in the Australian region.

How to cite: Schunck, D., McCallum, L., McCallum, J., and McCarthy, T.: Observing GNSS Satellites with the AuScope VLBI Array: A Testbed for the VLBI Component of the GENESIS Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18387, 2025.

EGU25-19163 | Orals | G2.2

The Ticking Truth: How Subtle Clock Adjustments Influence GNSS Satellite Antenna Offset Estimates 

Florian Dilssner, Tim Springer, Francisco Gonzalez, Erik Schönemann, and Francesco Gini

Realizing the terrestrial scale from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data requires precisely calibrated and highly stable satellite antenna phase centers. The results from the third International GNSS Service (IGS) reprocessing campaign, however, have raised renewed concerns about the long-term stability of the GNSS transmit antenna phase center relative to the spacecraft center of mass. Reevaluation of the satellite radial phase center offsets (z-PCOs) based on SINEX data from multiple IGS analysis centers revealed abrupt changes over time of up to 1 decimeter. Commonly cited reasons for time-varying z-PCO estimates are “aging” of the antenna and its radiation pattern, changing composition of the satellite constellation and ground network, and movement of the center of mass as propellant is consumed for satellite momentum dumps or orbital maneuvers. In this presentation, we shed light on another, yet unknown, effect arising from the drift of the satellite clock that prompts GNSS ground segment operators to adjust the clock frequency to ensure that the timing corrections in the satellite broadcast navigation message remain within the limits specified by the signal-in-space interface. The frequency adjustments are easily detectable in satellite clock bias estimates or broadcast clock correction parameters. However, this is only half the story; changing the clock frequency results in boresight angle-dependent lengthening or shortening of the carrier phase range, which the satellite antenna z-PCO parameter can almost perfectly absorb. As we will demonstrate through simulations and real-world examples from various GNSS spacecraft, a 4 × 10-10 correction applied to the onboard clock fundamental frequency (10.23 MHz) alters the estimated satellite z-PCOs for the standard ionosphere-free linear combination of L1 and L2/E5 by approximately 7 cm. The results indicate that satellite clock adjustments are the cause of the observed z-PCO jumps in the IGS “repro3” time series.

How to cite: Dilssner, F., Springer, T., Gonzalez, F., Schönemann, E., and Gini, F.: The Ticking Truth: How Subtle Clock Adjustments Influence GNSS Satellite Antenna Offset Estimates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19163, 2025.

EGU25-19542 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.2

Simulating and analysing VGOS observations for Genesis orbits and EOP determination 

Rimsky Wolfs and Rüdiger Haas

The upcoming Genesis mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) will allow for the combination of all 4 space geodetic techniques, being GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems), SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging), DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite), and VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry). This promises progress for an improved terrestrial reference frame (TRF) and the determination of inherent biases of each technique. From the VLBI and VGOS (VLBI Global Observing System) point of view, the advantage of adding VLBI observations of satellites into an observing session is that it allows the ability to also estimate the geocenter and the satellite’s orbit to centimetre precision, as shown in previous studies. There is still an opportunity to investigate the effect of the chosen satellite orbit itself and the parameterisation in the analysis stage, on the determined Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and the potentially determined satellite orbit. In this work we show the simulation of VGOS observations of a Genesis-like satellite, including scheduling, observations simulation, and analysis. This research will address the impact on the determination of EOPs and the determined satellite orbit, by the chosen initial satellite orbit and the parametrisation in the analysis process. The results of this study will enable future VLBI schedule optimisation that include satellite observations, and serve as a reference for orbital elements selection for VLBI observed geodetic satellites.

How to cite: Wolfs, R. and Haas, R.: Simulating and analysing VGOS observations for Genesis orbits and EOP determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19542, 2025.

EGU25-20752 | ECS | Orals | G2.2

Simulation for SLR space segment development to improve global geodetic parameters - different inclination angles & altitudes 

Joanna Najder, Krzysztof Sośnica, Radosław Zajdel, and Tomasz Kur

Further development of the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) technique is essential not only to achieve the goals defined by the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) but also to meet the growing challenges associated with understanding the increasingly frequent and dynamic processes occurring at the Earth's surface. SLR plays a key role in the realization of the Terrestrial Reference Frames (TRFs). It is also crucial for determining the gravitational potential, as the C20 and C30 coefficients in solutions from dedicated GRACE Follow-On missions are replaced by those derived from laser observations.

This study investigates the optimal orbital parameters to consider for future geodetic satellites. We performed simulations for satellites with different inclination angles ranging from 0° to 180° with 1° interval, and at five different altitudes ranging from 1,500 km to 10,300 km with 1,200 km interval. The analysis was carried out under two different scenarios: (1) optimisation for TRF realisation and (2) optimisation for recovery of the Earth's gravitational potential. The results indicate that the optimal satellite altitude for TRF implementation is about 3,700 km, with inclination angles between 0°-20° or 160°-180°, which minimises formal errors in the determination of geocenter coordinates and Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP). On the other hand, geodetic satellites designed primarily to determine the parameters of the Earth's low gravity potential should operate at an altitude of 1,500 km with inclinations between 30°-40° or 135°-145°.

In particular, none of the current satellites in the SLR constellation have orbital parameters optimised for low-degree gravity recovery. Adding a single satellite with suitable inclination parameters to the existing constellation of ten geodetic satellites would reduce the error in the determination of the Earth's oblateness term, C20, by order of magnitude.

How to cite: Najder, J., Sośnica, K., Zajdel, R., and Kur, T.: Simulation for SLR space segment development to improve global geodetic parameters - different inclination angles & altitudes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20752, 2025.

EGU25-21229 | Posters on site | G2.2

Collaboration in GNSS Antenna Calibration: Insights from the IGS Ring Calibration Campaign 

Steffen Schön, Tobias Kersten, Andria Bilich, and Igor Sutyagin

Obtaining consistent phase center corrections (PCCs) for GNSS receivers remains a significant challenge, as there is currently a lack of benchmarks to  consistently evaluate patterns or comparable values between different calibration institutions and methods (anechoic chamber and field robots). To address this problem, a global collaboration with nine calibration institutions known as the IGS Ring Calibration Campaign (IGS ringCalVal) has been  launched. This comprehensive initiative aims to compare results from different calibration methods and create a robust framework for quality assessment. Six antennas from different manufacturers were used for calibration in this campaign.

Over the past year, significant progress has been  made. We have developed benchmarks and methods that facilitate the comparison of PCC patterns. Our detailed results show that in the pattern domain, the system/frequency consistency per antenna design varies within an uncertainty level of ±1 mm, with an additional elevation-dependent effect. In the positioning domain, system-specific PPP (Precise Point Positioning) results per antenna and GNSS system are presented, which show a deviation of typically less than 2-3 mm for the horizontal coordinate component and less than 5 mm for the vertical component between different systems. But also, special cases will be discussed. Finally, these results are crucial for establishing global standards for PCC calibration and verification
of receiver antennas.

How to cite: Schön, S., Kersten, T., Bilich, A., and Sutyagin, I.: Collaboration in GNSS Antenna Calibration: Insights from the IGS Ring Calibration Campaign, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21229, 2025.

EGU25-285 | ECS | Orals | G2.3

Optimal Placement of VGOS Telescope in India: Simulation Insights for 24-Hour and 1-Hour VLBI Sessions 

Arnab Laha, Matthias Schartner, Sigrid Böhm, Hana Krásná, Benedikt Soja, Johannes Böhm, Nagarajan Balasubramanian, and Onkar Dikshit

Geodetic applications depend on the precise transformation between terrestrial and celestial reference frames, which are tied by the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is the only space geodetic technique capable of observing the complete set of EOP, which includes polar motion, UT1-UTC, and celestial pole offsets. Over the past three to four years, India has been planning the establishment of a VLBI Global Observing System (VGOS) telescope. Thus, identifying the optimal location for these antennas is critical for enhancing the precision of EOP estimation. The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) conducts its VLBI observing program in two formats: 24-hr sessions and 1-hr sessions. While 24-hr sessions typically involve a global network of stations and measure the full set of EOP, the 1-hr sessions, called Intensive sessions, focus on determining UT1-UTC with a short latency and generally involve two to three stations.

This study uses VieSched++ software to simulate the optimal position of VGOS telescopes in the Indian subcontinent separately for both 24-hr and 1-hr sessions. For the 24-hr sessions, 14 potential VLBI stations, co-located with GPS stations, are selected and simulated in addition to three different reference networks. Additionally, the study assesses the significance of using station-specific tropospheric turbulence parameters and wind speed in finding the optimal position. For 1-hr sessions, simulations were conducted by varying the VGOS telescope’s location in India on a regular 5 × 5 degree grid. It investigates the change in the precision of different baseline solutions when a third station from India is added in both regular mode and tag-along mode. Furthermore, it also identifies a new baseline, which includes one Indian station and one other station, that could be part of future Intensive sessions. 

Our findings show that the southern and north-eastern regions of India are optimal for improving EOP precision from 24-hr and 1-hr VGOS observing sessions, respectively. The findings also highlight that while a station may be geometrically advantageous for 24-hr sessions, the location might not be favorable if the tropospheric turbulence value is too high.

How to cite: Laha, A., Schartner, M., Böhm, S., Krásná, H., Soja, B., Böhm, J., Balasubramanian, N., and Dikshit, O.: Optimal Placement of VGOS Telescope in India: Simulation Insights for 24-Hour and 1-Hour VLBI Sessions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-285, 2025.

EGU25-1164 | Posters on site | G2.3

Geodesy Cartoons - Engaging the Public through Visual Storytelling 

Martin Sehnal, Riccardo Barzaghi, Detlef Angermann, and Laura Sánchez

Effectively communicating geodesy’s role in advancing our understanding of the dynamic Earth system by quantifying our planet’s changes in space and time is crucial for raising public awareness and support for this essential science. To bridge knowledge gaps and engage diverse audiences, the International Association of Geodesy’s (IAG) Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) has implemented a range of outreach and education initiatives. These efforts are designed to demystify geodesy, making it accessible to both scientific and non-specialist audiences through visual media, multilingual content, and user-friendly online platforms.

A recent innovation is the development of geodesy-themed cartoons that introduce geodetic concepts, products, and observation techniques in an engaging and relatable format. These cartoons also highlight pressing societal issues, such as the impacts of climate change and tectonic movements, making geodesy approachable for audiences of all ages. This visual storytelling approach complements other GGOS outreach tools, including multilingual educational videos, a comprehensive geodetic information portal at www.ggos.org, and active social media engagement on platforms like YouTube, LinkedIn, and Twitter.

By showcasing these initiatives, we aim to gather feedback and ideas from the geodetic community to enhance ongoing and future outreach activities. Through these collaborative insights, we hope to make geodesy more visible and relevant to both scientific and public audiences, ultimately fostering a broader understanding of its vital role in monitoring Earth’s changes and challenges.

How to cite: Sehnal, M., Barzaghi, R., Angermann, D., and Sánchez, L.: Geodesy Cartoons - Engaging the Public through Visual Storytelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1164, 2025.

EGU25-7520 | Orals | G2.3

The Global Geodetic Observing System: Facilitating Opportunities for Strategic Outreach, Collaboration, and Engagement with External Stakeholders 

Allison Craddock, Richard Gross, Martin Sehnal, José Rodriguez, Detlef Angermann, Laura Sánchez, and Athina Peidou

The vision of the International Association of Geodesy’s Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) is “Advancing our understanding of the dynamic Earth system by quantifying our planet’s changes in space and time.” This mission, as well as work toward the goals and objectives of the GGOS Strategic Plan, is partly supported by targeted engagement with external stakeholders, managed as a component of the GGOS Coordinating Office. GGOS External Relations includes a work portfolio that focuses on advocacy, visibility, and collaboration to ensure geodesy is a visible, valued, and sustainable worldwide asset.

Working toward proactive engagement with the broader Earth observations community, GGOS external outreach and engagement centers on advocacy for interoperable, discoverable, and openly available geospatial data; promoting infrastructure development; identifying geodetic contributions to United Nations frameworks, as well as working with external partners to leverage the use of geodesy in broader Earth Observations campaigns.

We present an update on how GGOS participation in diverse stakeholder organizations works to identify synergies, making connections across organizations in the name of geodesy and mutual benefit. How GGOS participation and leadership – often on behalf of the IAG – works to ensure Earth observation organizations are aware of their dependency on geodetic infrastructure for applications such as climate change and disaster risk reduction will be discussed.

Opportunities for the geodesy community to engage with and benefit from GGOS external relations activities will be presented.

How to cite: Craddock, A., Gross, R., Sehnal, M., Rodriguez, J., Angermann, D., Sánchez, L., and Peidou, A.: The Global Geodetic Observing System: Facilitating Opportunities for Strategic Outreach, Collaboration, and Engagement with External Stakeholders, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7520, 2025.

EGU25-8330 | Posters on site | G2.3

Exploration of VGOS station position estimates and the signals within 

Maria Karbon, Esther Azcue, Santiago Belda, Alberto Escapa, and Jose Manuel Ferrandiz

Over the past decade, the IVS has undertaken enormous efforts to modernize its infrastructure under the VGOS (VLBI global observing system) umbrella in order to meet the objectives set forth by GGOS. Key feature are smaller, faster antennas to facilitate a better sky coverage, equipped with broad-band receivers observing between 2-14 GHz to reach a better signal-to-noise ratio. Another innovation of VGOS are twin telescopes, i.e. two VGOS antennas at the same location, separated only by dozens of meters. Currently three pairs are deployed. And all VGOS antennas, with the exception of a small number, are co-located with a legacy antenna.

The results of the fist years of VGOS observations are unprecedented in their accuracy, especially in regards of the station positions. However, this now unveils previously unknown or unnoticed systematics, signals hidden by the noise, or signals which remained unmodeled as they were considered to small to rise to significance.

In this study, we focus on the station positions of VGOS antennas and their residuals, compare them to their twins, and to the respective legacy antennas. We discuss the impact and origin of until now unseen signals, and explore possible methods to model and/or mitigate them to reach the highest possible accuracy.

How to cite: Karbon, M., Azcue, E., Belda, S., Escapa, A., and Ferrandiz, J. M.: Exploration of VGOS station position estimates and the signals within, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8330, 2025.

EGU25-8814 | Orals | G2.3

The Strategic Role of Essential Variables in Geodesy 

Laura Sánchez, Thomas Gruber, and Detlef Angermann

The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) or the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) is currently focusing on the definition of Essential Geodetic Variables (EGVs). Essential Variables (EVs) serve as basic metrics that encapsulate critical aspects of geodetic observations, products and results, ensuring a structured framework for observing, understanding and modelling the Earth system, and for providing the fundamental layer (i.e. geodetic reference frames) for National Administrations and sustainable development. Today, essential variables in geodesy are able to offer unprecedented opportunities to improve reliability, consistency and accuracy of geodetic measurements and products. These variables enable the scientific and policy-making communities to address pressing challenges such as monitoring sea level rise and climate change effects, understanding Earth dynamics, supporting disaster risk reduction, and facilitating reference infrastructure for sustainable development. By focusing on variables deemed 'essential', resources can be strategically allocated to maximise their impact on achieving specific objectives and ensure efficient data collection and use.

In addition, EGVs promote interdisciplinary cooperation and international standardisation, providing a common language and reference for geodetic research and applications. The definition and adoption of EGVs will facilitate that geodetic data remain robust, traceable and relevant to advance science, inform policy and support societal needs. Establishing a comprehensive and widely accepted catalogue of EGVs, accompanied by well-defined requirements and stewardship, is critical to realising these benefits and meeting the growing demands on geodetic science in a rapidly changing world.

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was the first community to introduce the concept of EVs, the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), which have been widely adopted by the scientific and policy communities. Subsequently, the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) defined a complementary set of Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) with standards aligned with the ECVs. Similarly, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), a partner of the Biodiversity Observing Network of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO BON), has initiated the definition of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs). There are currently other ongoing initiatives to introduce additional sets of EVs, not only to describe the Earth System, but also the socio-economic system, including for example urban development, energy and minerals, health, agriculture, etc. In this international and interdisciplinary context, this contribution presents the progress made by GGOS in defining a catalogue of essential geodetic variables that is fully consistent with the concept and the existing essential climate and ocean variables ECVs, EOVs.

How to cite: Sánchez, L., Gruber, T., and Angermann, D.: The Strategic Role of Essential Variables in Geodesy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8814, 2025.

Modern society is dependent on satellites. In many countries, satellite information is essential for economic growth, the operation of critical infrastructure, and is a cornerstone of national defence forces. For satellites to operate accurately and reliably, their ‘place in space’ and Earth’s ‘place in space’ need to be observed and analyzed constantly. This information is provided through the global geodesy supply chain. The global geodesy supply chain is the collection of ground observing stations, data centres, analysis centres and highly qualified experts who observe the Earth and convert these observations into geodetic products which are essential to communicate accurately and reliably with satellites. This presentation will describe the weaknesses in the global geodesy supply chain and explore the actions of Member States and partners to strengthen it as described in the First Joint Development Plan for Global Geodesy. Key activities for Member States include: strengthening national awareness and governance in geodesy, recognizing the global geodesy supply chain as national critical infrastructure and engaging in bilateral or multilateral agreements with other Member States.

How to cite: Brown, N. J.: Hidden Risks: The weakness in the global geodesy supply chain that threaten modern society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9966, 2025.

EGU25-11753 | Posters on site | G2.3

Study of the effects of water mass variations on aquaculture facilities off the Valencian coast, Spain 

Juan-Manuel Sayol, Isabel Vigo, David García-García, and César Bordehore

In addition to extreme storm surges that can damage aquaculture cages, rapid temperature changes also pose a threat to aquaculture production. In this context, variations in either water mass pathways and/or local water mass properties can lead to sea temperature variations around aquaculture facilities. There are about 15 aquaculture facilities along the Valencian coast in the western Mediterranean, and many more along the rest of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. These facilities typically produce sea bream, croaker, sea bass and eel, among other species of commercial interest.

In this work, we use 35 years of daily averaged horizontal velocities from the Nemo reanalysis, freely accessible in Copernicus and with a horizontal resolution of about 4.2 km, to study variations in water mass properties (potential temperature, salinity) and/or water mass pathways over the Valencian coasts. First, we have performed an analysis of the ocean currents through a real-empirical orthogonal function approach. Next, we performed a Lagrangian analysis. To this end, we have advected horizontally massless particles forward and backward in time for a total of 6 months. The particles are deployed daily from 1988 to 2021 at model grid points off the Valencian coast. Horizontal advections are performed at 10 and 50 m depth, in order to capture any change near the typical depth of aquaculture cages (at about 20 m depth).

How to cite: Sayol, J.-M., Vigo, I., García-García, D., and Bordehore, C.: Study of the effects of water mass variations on aquaculture facilities off the Valencian coast, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11753, 2025.

EGU25-12811 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.3

Satellite-Based Geostrophic Currents for Improved Ocean Angular Momentum Estimates 

Juan Adrián Vargas Alemañy, Isabel Vigo Aguiar, Ferrándiz Leal José Manuel, and García García David

Ocean angular momentum (OAM), a measure of the rotational motion of the oceanic fluid masses, undergoes alterations as a consequence of changes in both the distribution of ocean mass and the direction and speed of ocean currents. While a number of products provide estimates of these changes, they rely on global ocean current models.

Geostrophic currents (GC) represent the dominant current patterns in the ocean, emerging from the equilibrium between the Coriolis force and the pressure gradient force. They play a pivotal role in shaping oceanic circulation patterns. With the advent of current satellite missions, it is now feasible to obtain geodetic estimates of GC using satellite data. By integrating Sea Surface Height (SSH) data from satellite altimetry, an independent geoid derived from satellite gravity data, and temperature and salinity profiles, GC can be estimated at various depths across the global ocean with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°.

These estimates of GC are employed to calculate oceanic angular momentum (OAM). The OAM derived from satellite-based GC is then compared with a number of existing OAM products. This approach is anticipated to provide more reliable estimates, as the GC derived from satellite data align more closely with in-situ current measurements than model-based OAM calculations.

How to cite: Vargas Alemañy, J. A., Vigo Aguiar, I., José Manuel, F. L., and David, G. G.: Satellite-Based Geostrophic Currents for Improved Ocean Angular Momentum Estimates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12811, 2025.

EGU25-13276 | Posters on site | G2.3

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 

Rüdiger Haas and Dirk Behrend

The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) is a globally operating service that coordinates and performs Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) activities through its constituent components, supporting geodetic and astrometric work on reference systems and Earth science research. The service consists of over 80 components, which are supported by about 40 organizations in more than 20 countries. It was established in 1999 as a service of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) and was recognized as a service of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) a year later. The IVS interacts closely with the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), which is tasked by IAU and IUGG (International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics) with maintaining the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames (ICRF and ITRF) and providing Earth orientation parameters (EOP) required to study earth orientation variations and to transform between the ICRF and the ITRF. VLBI is one of the most accurate methods used to measure the Earth and its orientation in space. With the help of international networks of radio telescopes compact radio sources (typically quasars) are observed and their signals used to determine the radio source positions, the Earth orientation parameters, and the positions of the radio telescopes. IVS coordinates VLBI observing programs, sets performance standards for VLBI stations, establishes conventions for VLBI data formats and data products, issues recommendations for VLBI data analysis software, sets standards for VLBI analysis documentation, and institutes appropriate VLBI product delivery methods to ensure suitable product quality and timeliness. VLBI data products currently available are the full set of EOP, the TRF, the CRF, and tropospheric parameters. All VLBI data products are archived in IVS Data Centers and are publicly available. The IVS data set extends from 1979. We provide an overview of the status and current activities of the service.

How to cite: Haas, R. and Behrend, D.: International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13276, 2025.

EGU25-13935 | Posters on site | G2.3

Progressing Toward the Establishment of a New Geodetic Prediction Center 

Santiago Belda, Maria Karbon, Sonia Guessoum, Lucía Daniela Del Nido, Sadegh Modiri, Esther Azcue, José Carlos Rodríguez, Leonor Cui Domingo Centeno, Mariana Moreira, Alberto Escapa, and José M. Ferrándiz

Various features of the Earth system, including its shape, gravitational field, and orientation in space, can be measured through geodetic observations. These measurements play a vital role in both scientific research and practical applications, as evidenced by their contributions to the study of geodynamic events, climate change monitoring, and navigation in space and on Earth. Recognizing the importance of these characteristics, the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) recently initiated the definition of Essential Geodetic Variables (EGVs). These variables represent core metrics that capture key geodetic properties of the Earth. Requirements for EGVs include accuracy, spatiotemporal resolution, and latency, with the latter being especially critical for real-time applications. To meet user needs, many scientific disciplines depend on forecasts of specific EGVs over varying time horizons.

The Space Geodesy Group at the University of Alicante, along with the Geodesy Group at Spain’s National Geographic Institute (IGN), possesses extensive expertise in geodesy, particularly in Earth rotation theory, modeling, and predicting Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs). This expertise has been bolstered by their active participation in the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), which ran from September 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022. These efforts have paved the way for establishing the first Spanish-Portuguese Geodetic Prediction Center, which will primarily focus on EOP forecasting. The center also aims to expand in the near future to include other critical geodetic products and EGVs, such as Earth angular momentum functions, station coordinates, tropospheric zenith wet delays, ionospheric total electron content, and satellite orbit predictions.

How to cite: Belda, S., Karbon, M., Guessoum, S., Del Nido, L. D., Modiri, S., Azcue, E., Rodríguez, J. C., Domingo Centeno, L. C., Moreira, M., Escapa, A., and Ferrándiz, J. M.: Progressing Toward the Establishment of a New Geodetic Prediction Center, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13935, 2025.

EGU25-14088 | Orals | G2.3

International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) Status 

Claudia C Carabajal, Michael Pearlman, Van Husson, Stephen Merkowitz, Mathis Blossfeld, and Clément Courde

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) provides Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) observations and data products with a focus on Earth and Lunar science and engineering applications. The basic observables are the precise two-way time-of-flight of ultra-short laser pulses from ground stations to retroreflector arrays on satellites and the Moon and the one-way time-of-flight (TOF) measurements to space-borne receivers (transponders). The ILRS network is experiencing significant growth, with multi-techniques Core Sites exploiting the combined strengths of the various geodetic techniques, new low-cost systems, some being transportable. Some of the stations are also dedicating some of their efforts to tracking Space Debris, contributing to the maintenance of various data catalogs, helping support operations and continue their contributions to geodetic science. New stations joining the network, and new satellite missions supported, are strengthening the ILRS contribution to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF), and expanding the spectrum of satellite applications supported by the Service. Improvements in Satellite Laser Ranging science products continue, enabled by new data processing and analysis techniques and better modeling. Fundamental physics applications continue to be supported through dedicated campaigns, as are time-transfer experiments and Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) applications, and the support of new lunar missions.

It is the goal of this presentation to report on progress achieved by the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) during the last five years.

How to cite: Carabajal, C. C., Pearlman, M., Husson, V., Merkowitz, S., Blossfeld, M., and Courde, C.: International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) Status, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14088, 2025.

EGU25-15595 | Posters on site | G2.3

Estimates of net horizontal water fluxes in the ocean from GRACE/GRACE-FO and ERA5 

David Garcia-Garcia, Ahmed Kamel Boulahia, Mario Trottini, Juan A. Vargas‐Alemañy, Juan‐Manuel Sayol, and M. Isabel Vigo

In the ocean, horizontal water fluxes can be estimated from a variety of in situ measurements and ocean general circulation models. However, the study of such fluxes with remote measurements has been elusive for decades. In recent years, a technique has been developed that allows the calculation of net ocean water transports between basins from: (1) temporal gravity measurements made by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions; (2) global precipitation and evaporation such as those from the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis model. In this work, we show a compilation of the results obtained with this technique, such as the net water exchange between ocean basins and between semi-enclosed seas (Black, Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, and the Arabian Gulf) and the open ocean. Such results are useful for understanding ocean dynamics and providing constraints for numerical ocean models.

How to cite: Garcia-Garcia, D., Boulahia, A. K., Trottini, M., Vargas‐Alemañy, J. A., Sayol, J., and Vigo, M. I.: Estimates of net horizontal water fluxes in the ocean from GRACE/GRACE-FO and ERA5, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15595, 2025.

EGU25-16476 | Orals | G2.3

Current Progress of the RAEGE Project: A Spanish-Portuguese Collaboration in Geodesy 

Jose A. Lopez-Perez, Abel Garcia-Castellano, Javier Gonzalez-Garcia, Carlos Albo-Castaño, Luisa Magalhaes, Francisco Javier Morales Comalat, and Jose A. Lopez-Fernandez

This presentation highlights the advancements in the Red Atlántica de Estaciones Geodinámicas y Espaciales (RAEGE), a collaborative Spanish-Portuguese geodetic infrastructure. The project envisions four VGOS radio telescopes: two in Spain (Yebes and Gran Canaria) and two in Portugal (Santa Maria and Flores, Azores). All stations will be equipped with a fast-moving high-sentitivity VLBI radiotelescope and its associated 2-14 GHz VGOS receiver, GNSS receivers, gravimeters and a local-tie network. Additionally, Yebes station has a state-of-the-art Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) system.

The RAEGE Yebes VGOS radiotelescope has been operational and a part of the VGOS core network since 2016. The RAEGE Santa Maria VGOS radiotelescope recently underwent extensive maintenance in 2021 and 2022, and high-temperature superconducting filters (HTS) to mitigate interference from space debris radar signals were installed in its VGOS receiver. Following these upgrades, it became part of the VGOS core network in October 2023.

Notably, the RAEGE Yebes SLR station completed the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) quarantine in October 2024 and is now fully operational within the ILRS framework.

Regarding RAEGE Gran Canaria station, the contracts for its construction were awarded in 2024, with civil works set to commence in early 2025.

Collectively, these developments underscore RAEGE's substantial contribution to global geodetic initiatives, aligning with UN resolution 69/266 and the objectives of the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS). This presentation will provide an overview of the current status and future plans for the RAEGE network, emphasizing its role in fostering international collaboration to address scientific and societal challenges.

How to cite: Lopez-Perez, J. A., Garcia-Castellano, A., Gonzalez-Garcia, J., Albo-Castaño, C., Magalhaes, L., Morales Comalat, F. J., and Lopez-Fernandez, J. A.: Current Progress of the RAEGE Project: A Spanish-Portuguese Collaboration in Geodesy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16476, 2025.

EGU25-17638 | Posters on site | G2.3

A proposal to recover fish stocks: a meta-population, size-differentiated model coupled with currents  

Cesar Bordehore, Juan M. Sayol, David Garcia-Garcia, John A. Dobson, Eva S. Fonfria, Juan A. Vargas, and Isabel Vigo

Around 70% of fish stocks worldwide are overfished. In European waters, this overfishing has forced EU authorities to drastically reduce fishing effort in European Mediterranean waters and to make changes in fishing gear (e.g. larger mesh sizes, or flying trawl doors). However, the new regulations do not mention the creation of marine reserves as one of the mandatory measures. According to our studies and the scientific literature, the design of a well-designed network of no-take marine reserves is an essential tool for stock recovery, the very measure on which the European Commission places the least emphasis. In order to establish marine protected areas, the ocean currents at a regional scale are a key element that allows us to understand how the planktonic stages drift between spawning to recruitment areas. We take into account a geodesic approach based on satellite observations and also combined with regional high-resolution 3D oceanographic circulation models.

We show that a well-designed network of marine reserves, taking into account variables such as the size of the protected area (which will depend on the target species or species), the spatial design of the network (based on the role of currents as a mechanism for dispersal of larval stages), the biology of the target species, among others. We address the optimisation of stock recovery through a meta-population, spatially-explicit and size-differentiated approach (important when quantifying the reproductive capacity of a population). Sub-stocks within the meta-stock would be connected by Lagrangian advection and current simulations using a combination of Ocean Parcels (https://oceanparcels.org/) and the IBI-MFC model freely available on Copernicus (https://marine.copernicus.eu/about/producers/ibi-mfc). This approach would allow the optimisation of the design of a ‘no take’ space network and help to recover the populations of exploited marine species in a faster and more efficient way.

How to cite: Bordehore, C., Sayol, J. M., Garcia-Garcia, D., Dobson, J. A., Fonfria, E. S., Vargas, J. A., and Vigo, I.: A proposal to recover fish stocks: a meta-population, size-differentiated model coupled with currents , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17638, 2025.

EGU25-19633 | Orals | G2.3

How fragile is the global geodesy supply chain? A case study of the ILRS network. 

José Carlos Rodríguez, Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, and Nicholas Brown

The geodetic community provides essential data, products and services that support critical sectors of our modern economies. Positioning, navigation, timing, infrastructure monitoring, natural hazard modelling and early warning systems, climate change science, are just a few examples of applications that depend on the existence of the so-called Global Geodesy Supply Chain (GGSC). The GGSC comprises the entire cycle of creation of geodetic products and their delivery to the users. It includes structural elements (e.g. ground and space assets, data centres, analysis and combination centres) and operational elements that support these functions (e.g. human resources, governance structures).


Since its establishment in 2023, the United Nations Global Geodetic Centre of Excellence has been working with the international geodetic community, national agencies and Member States to strengthen the GGSC. The strategic objectives of these efforts are outlined in the 1st Joint Development Plan for Global Geodesy. The expert evidence gathered by the UN-GGCE indicates weaknesses in the GGSC, which threatens socio-economic activities that rely on the supply of accurate, precise, stable and timely geodetic products.

In order to ascertain more quantitatively the fragility of the ground networks, we have conducted simulation studies focusing on what appear to be particularly concerning elements. Here we will discuss results for the Satellite Laser Ranging network, showing how the loss of relatively few stations can lead to significant degradation of the ILRS products and therefore to the combined global terrestrial reference frame. The lower quality of the global products obtained in the simulated scenarios would most obviously affect the scientific goals of the Global Geodetic Observing System, and its commitment to continuously monitor changes in the Earth system in an integrated manner. Likewise, operational applications dependent on a high-quality global terrestrial reference frame would also be affected.


* The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.

How to cite: Rodríguez, J. C., Poshyvailo-Strube, L., and Brown, N.: How fragile is the global geodesy supply chain? A case study of the ILRS network., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19633, 2025.

EGU25-19790 | Posters on site | G2.3

On IAU and IAG collaboration in the new JWG on Consistent Improvement of Earth Rotation Theory 

José M. Ferrándiz, Cheng-li Huang, Alberto Escapa, and Maria Karbon

Over the last decade, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) have organised successive Joint Working Groups (JWGs) to study in depth the current theories and models of Earth rotation, which are of paramount importance for general geodesy and astronomy, and for positioning and navigation on Earth and in space in particular. Their activities have resulted in IAU and IAG resolutions encouraging the improvement of such theories and models, particularly with regard to the consistency and accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs). In this communication, we recall some results of the past JWGs and introduce the new JWG on Consistent Improvement of Earth Rotation Theory (CIERT) and its planned activities.

The former IAU/IAG JWG on Improving Theories and Models of Earth Rotation (ITMER) showed that the unexplained variance of the precession/nutation (PN) variables, measured in terms of the WRMS of the observed celestial pole offsets (CPO), can be significantly reduced by fitting to the observations some corrections of the linear component of precession and of the theoretical amplitudes of some lunisolar and planetary nutation terms. Furthermore, the unexplained WRMS is reduced to less than 3 mm by supplementing the corrections with appropriate Free Core Nutation (FCN) models. However, not only because of the need to deepen theoretical knowledge, but also because of the large number of nutation frequencies involved and the consequent limitations of the fits, the use of semi-empirical nutation models is only a temporary solution.

It is therefore necessary, and a major goal of the new JWG, to derive complete theories that bring together the many advances made by different research groups in recent years in a way that is internally consistent and also coherent with the analysis of observational data. One of the most recent advances is the derivation of fully analytical corrections to planetary nutations, which are competitive since they allow the empirical fit to be limited to the lunisolar terms.

Acknowledgment. This research was supported partially by Spanish Projects PID2020-119383GB-I00 funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033); SEJIGENT/2021/001, funded by Generalitat Valenciana; and the European Union—NextGenerationEU (ZAMBRANO 21-04).

How to cite: Ferrándiz, J. M., Huang, C., Escapa, A., and Karbon, M.: On IAU and IAG collaboration in the new JWG on Consistent Improvement of Earth Rotation Theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19790, 2025.

EGU25-20004 | Orals | G2.3

Using DOIs for Geodesy – best practices and ongoing discussions 

Kirsten Elger and the GGOS Committee on DOIs for Geodetic Data Sets

Trustworthy, reproducible and open science requires the digital availability of well-documented, findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable data. Due to the high relevance of geodetic data beyond the geodesy (e.g., in geophysics, hydrology, oceanography, glaciology and climatology), it is essential to provide them in citable form that allow the provision of proper credit and attribution for the data producers and their institutions.

The assignment of digital object identifier (DOI) can provide such credit and additionally support data discovery in the internet. The registration of a DOI requires the provision of at least a minimum set of descriptive metadata in machine-readable form (following international standards) that complements disciplinary, contextual metadata and documentation. The objects assigned with DOIs are persistently archived at research data repositories and are fully citable in scholarly literature.

Since 2019, the GGOS Committee on DOIs for geodetic data is developing recommendations and guidance for the consistent use of DOIs for geodetic data across all services of the International Association for Geodesy (IAG). While the first version of metadata recommendation was developed for GNSS data, many general remarks are valid for data from other techniques.

Once the DOIs are registered, it is important to ensure that the data assigned with DOI are properly cited. This is an especially large challenge for geodetic data due to their high granularity and international character. It is common practice to provide data products representing different processing levels (e.g., ultra-rapid, rapid, final products) or products representing different levels of aggregation (e.g., solutions measured by stations are combined by regional analyses centers, the latter are later combined to one global best-fit solution that represents the final solution for one geodetic service). Only the citation of each object contributes to a combination product ensures that credit is given to all researchers and institutions involved. The challenge has different facets of which the technical implementation seems to be the smallest (the DataCite Metadata Schema has dedicated metadata properties to make digital connection between data, software and scholarly literature). Larger challenges lie in the practical citation of hundreds of DOIs in research articles (most journals do not accept it) or data publications and the more educational task to enable researchers to properly cite the data they used.

How to cite: Elger, K. and the GGOS Committee on DOIs for Geodetic Data Sets: Using DOIs for Geodesy – best practices and ongoing discussions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20004, 2025.

EGU25-20655 | Posters on site | G2.3

Integrating GNSS Data Across Europe: Advancing Geodetic Research and Applications 

Rui Fernandes, Carine Bruyninx, Luis Carvalho, Paul Crocker, Gael Janex, Juliette Legrand, Jean-Luc Menut, Anne Socquet, and Mathilde Vergnolle

The European Plate Observing System (EPOS) facilitates access to GNSS data and derived products through its GNSS Thematic Core Service (TCS), harmonizing data availability from European networks. Rigorous quality control of RINEX files with GNSS measurements ensures the integrity of the raw data, ensuring reliability for subsequent processing and analysis. By implementing FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles, EPOS-GNSS enhances accessibility and supports advanced geodetic research and Earth system monitoring.

A central feature of EPOS-GNSS is GLASS, which supports the dissemination of GNSS data and derived products, including time-series, velocity fields, and strain rate maps. GLASS facilitates seamless access to these resources, utilizing international standards for data compatibility and interoperability. Although the data and products are distributed across different nodes and repositories, GLASS ensures a unified interface for users through the dedicated EPOS-GNSS portals or the EPOS Platform.

We will present the latest developments in the implementation and operation of EPOS-GNSS services, which are contributing for the scientific community to address key scientific and societal challenges, such as monitoring Solid Earth processes, while also supporting other scientific and technical applications. By streamlining access to comprehensive GNSS datasets and derived products, EPOS-GNSS enhances research capacity and fosters innovation in geodetic studies across Europe.

This work is supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): UID/50019/2025 and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020).

How to cite: Fernandes, R., Bruyninx, C., Carvalho, L., Crocker, P., Janex, G., Legrand, J., Menut, J.-L., Socquet, A., and Vergnolle, M.: Integrating GNSS Data Across Europe: Advancing Geodetic Research and Applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20655, 2025.

EGU25-2002 | Orals | G2.4

Real-time LEO satellite precise orbit and clock determination for augmenting GNSS: Strategies and Challenges 

Kan Wang, Wei Xie, Beixi Chen, Jiawei Liu, Meifang Wu, Ahmed El-Mowafy, and Xuhai Yang

To realize the various benefits brought by Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in single-receiver high-precision GNSS-based Positioning Navigation and Timing (PNT) services, LEO satellite orbits and clocks need to be processed and delivered to users in real-time with precision of a few centimeters. While post-processing of cm-level LEO satellite orbits and clocks can be widely achieved, real-time processing faces various Challenges. When the number of LEO satellites increases, the observation data downlinked to the processing center may experience large and complicated discontinuities and incompleteness depending on the downlinking strategies. Even with the observations downlinked in real-time, the LEO satellite clock precision tends to be very sensitive to the continuity and quality of the GNSS real-time products. This study first introduces the procedure for ground-based cm-level real-time LEO satellite Precise Orbit Determination (POD), including near-real-time POD, short-term prediction, and ephemeris fitting/broadcasting. Next, the short-term predicted orbits and long-term predicted clocks of LEO satellites are introduced and properly constrained in filter-based real-time LEO satellite clock determination to achieve a precision of about 0.2 ns. Strategies to deal with sub-optimal observation data and GNSS products are explained. With the proposed methods, a Signal-In-Space Ranging Error at sub-dm to 1 dm can be achieved in practice. 

How to cite: Wang, K., Xie, W., Chen, B., Liu, J., Wu, M., El-Mowafy, A., and Yang, X.: Real-time LEO satellite precise orbit and clock determination for augmenting GNSS: Strategies and Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2002, 2025.

EGU25-2304 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

New Insights of Accurate Multipath Mitigation for Multi-GNSS PPP Using Refined Multipath Extraction Strategy 

Xinrui Li, Li Wang, Xiaoli Ding, Qin Zhang, Xuanyu Qu, and Bao Shu

Multipath continues to pose a significant challenge for the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technique in achieving precise Precise Point Positioning (PPP). Sidereal Filtering (SF) and multipath hemispherical map (MHM) represent common methods for mitigating multipath by leveraging satellite temporal and spatial repeatability. However, the effectiveness of these approaches relies heavily on the quality of the multipath correction model derived from preceding PPP residuals, which often contains product and parameter estimation errors. These errors can notably compromise the accuracy and reliability of multipath mitigation efforts. We propose an innovative method for extracting multipath based on a refined error separation strategy and mitigating multipath with SF. This method involves decomposing PPP residuals into multiple reconstructed components (RCs) using the multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) technique and subsequently isolating multipath by reconstructing RCs exhibiting strong temporal repeatability. Extensive experiments with a 28-day dataset from 20 multi-GNSS stations demonstrated the effectiveness of our method. Compared to the conventional wavelet-based SF method, the proposed approach improved PPP accuracy by 23%, 20%, and 18% in the East, North, and Up directions, respectively, and by 18%, 16%, and 15% compared to the MHM method. Results also reveal that PPP residuals can be decomposed into multipath, high-frequency noise, common-mode error (CME), and site-specific errors. The last two components, which are non-repeatable in time and space, pose limitations on the effectiveness of conventional SF and MHM strategies in addressing multipath effects. 

How to cite: Li, X., Wang, L., Ding, X., Zhang, Q., Qu, X., and Shu, B.: New Insights of Accurate Multipath Mitigation for Multi-GNSS PPP Using Refined Multipath Extraction Strategy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2304, 2025.

EGU25-2818 | Posters on site | G2.4

Enhancing GNSS Positioning Accuracy in Challenging Environments: Development and Validation of a Multipath Prediction Tool 

Dariusz Tomaszewski, Jacek Rapiński, Artur Janowski, and Renata Pelc-Mieczkowska

Despite the increasing number of satellites in multi-constellation GNSS, signal availability and quality remain significant problems in urban and forested environments. Field obstacles such as buildings and dense vegetation can lead to severe multipath issues. Various methods have been developed to mitigate multipath effects on measurement results, including optimizing antenna placement, selecting appropriate antenna and receiver types, and employing advanced post-processing techniques. However, these efforts have been unable to completely eliminate multipath interference, which can greatly affect positioning accuracy. The authors of this presentation have developed a tool that helps identify and remove reflected signals from measurement data sets. This tool, called GNSS MPD, was developed to predict satellite signal obstructions. It considers Line of Sight (LOS) vectors between specific locations and satellite positions and obstacle models derived from airborne LiDAR data. The LiDAR data is automatically acquired from geoportal.gov.pl, enabling the generation of an approximate terrain cover model. Satellite obstructions are validated using a ray-casting method. As part of testing the developed platform, the authors designed two experiments. The first experiment is a comparative analysis between satellite visibility scenarios obtained from GNSS MPD calculations and hemispherical photography. The second study involves performing positioning using information regarding the satellite visibility from GNSS MPD software. As part of this study, five 24-hour measurement sessions were conducted in a highly urbanized area.  Based on the receiver's approximate position, satellite visibility scenarios are generated using the developed platform. Static positioning measurements were performed in the experiment, yielding two sets of results: one based on raw receiver observations and the other incorporating visibility scenarios from the platform to adjust the observation files. The test results demonstrate improvements in both accuracy and the success rate of position determination.

How to cite: Tomaszewski, D., Rapiński, J., Janowski, A., and Pelc-Mieczkowska, R.: Enhancing GNSS Positioning Accuracy in Challenging Environments: Development and Validation of a Multipath Prediction Tool, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2818, 2025.

EGU25-4275 | Orals | G2.4

Evaluation of Galileo FOC Reference Antenna Patterns 

Peter Steigenberger, Steffen Thoelert, and Oliver Montenbruck
Knowledge of the effective power of radio signals transmitted by navigation satellites is essential for link budget calculations for, e.g., GNSS reflectometry experiments or space-borne GNSS tracking. In particular, this is important for receivers in medium or higher Earth orbit as well as lunar orbit. Here, the signal strengths suffers from the large distances between transmitter and receiver as well as reduced power from the sidelobes of the transmit antennas with significantly smaller gain. An example for such a satellite is ESA’s Genesis mission, the first co-location in space of the four space-geodetic techniques GNSS, SLR, VLBI, and DORIS.
In spring 2024, the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission published the "Galileo Reference Antenna Pattern" (GRAP) of the Galileo Full Operational Capability (FOC) satellites. GRAP describes the equivalent isotropically radiated power (EIRP) of the open signals in the E1, E5a, E5b, and E6 frequency bands. It has a 2-degree resolution in azimuth and nadir direction for nadir angles up to 90° and provides the block-mean of all FOC satellites along with the corresponding standard deviations.
However, GRAP only specifies a minimum EIRP level in accord with the corresponding signal specifications. This might be undesirable for practical applications as the actual power level transmitted by the satellites could be significantly larger. In order to evaluate this potential discrepancy as well as the general agreement of GRAP with measured EIRPs, data from a dedicated measurement campaign are analyzed for the individual Galileo FOC satellites. The EIRP is measured with the 30 m dish antenna of the German Aerospace Center located in Weilheim, Germany, which is regularly used for GNSS signal monitoring. The satellite- and frequency-specific EIRP values are compared to GRAP as well as to the measured mean values. In this comparison, special attention has to be paid to the fact that the EIRP measurements cover all signals within one frequency band, whereas GRAP only refers to the Open Service data+pilot components and does not include the Public Regulated Service signals and the intermodulation product in the E1 and E6 band.

How to cite: Steigenberger, P., Thoelert, S., and Montenbruck, O.: Evaluation of Galileo FOC Reference Antenna Patterns, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4275, 2025.

PRIDE PPP-AR is a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Precise Point Positioning (PPP) software specifically designed for applications in Earth sciences. Since its initial release in 2019, the software has been updated to version 3.1. The core strength of PRIDE PPP-AR lies in its PPP-AR processing capabilities with arbitrary dual-frequency ionosphere-free combinations. It is also featured by low Earth orbit satellite solutions, multipath mitigation, epoch-by-epoch constraints in segmented processing mode, multi-day continuous processing, and ocean tide loading corrections without ocean tide coefficients. Furthermore, PRIDE PPP-AR is compatible with the three major operating systems: Linux, Windows, and macOS, providing great convenience for early-career researchers, facilitating easier learning and usage.

Tests conducted using 511 IGS reference stations in January 2018 showed that, when compared with IGS solutions, PRIDE PPP-AR can achieve millimeter-level static solutions and tropospheric delays, and centimeter-level dynamic solutions, with an average fix rate of 95%. In the fields of geodesy and Earth sciences, the high-precision positioning capabilities of PRIDE PPP-AR make it a powerful tool for studying Earth dynamics, crustal deformation, and seismic monitoring. Additionally, its performance on high-dynamic platforms such as aerial photogrammetry and shipborne gravimetry is outstanding, providing technical support for scientific research and engineering practices in related fields. The new version of PRIDE PPP-AR will be able to fully utilize the advantages of GNSS modernization, enhancing high-precision positioning accuracy in a broader range of research areas.

How to cite: Geng, J. and Wen, Q.: PRIDE PPP-AR: mitigating multipath and day-boundary discontinuities for geodesy and geophysics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4789, 2025.

EGU25-5095 | ECS | Orals | G2.4

Improved multi-GNSS PPP-AR performance through refined tropospheric and multipath models 

Ran Lu, Mingyuan Zhang, Zhao Li, Peng Yuan, and Weiping Jiang

Tropospheric delay and multipath effect are two key errors that are difficult to be accurately corrected in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Precise Point Positioning Ambiguity Resolution (PPP-AR). The tropospheric residuals due to imperfect modeling can be significant in harsh environments, like in regions with complex terrain and during extreme weather. As the tropospheric delay and multipath effect are coupled in the unmodeled errors, the tropospheric residuals could be misunderstood as multipath. Therefore, accurate correction of the tropospheric delay is crucial for estimating the multipath. However, the coupling effect was not properly considered in previous studies. We propose a refined joint troposphere-multipath hemispherical map (TMM), by constructing a refined troposphere hemispherical map (THM) and an improved multipath hemispherical map (C-TMHM). We use ray-tracing and meteorological data to construct THM correction tables, while tropospheric delays in PPP-AR are corrected by retrieving the corresponding satellite tropospheric delay estimates to obtain "cleaner" multipath model values. Results show that the tropospheric THM model reduces GNSS residuals from about 10 mm to 2 mm at low-elevation (7°~30°) compared to the Vienna Mapping Functions 3 (VMF3). Because that the topographic complexity and the rapid variations in atmospheric water vapor are not adequately considered by simply using the elevation-dependent mapping function and horizontal gradients. In particular, part of the tropospheric residuals in the low-elevation are likely to be misinterpreted as multipath. Compared with multi-GNSS PPP-AR performance using traditional model (VMF3 and uncorrected multipath), the proposed TMM (THM and C-TMHM) model improves the positioning accuracy by 32.12% and 36.18% under the cases of complex terrain and extreme weather, respectively, while shortens the convergence time by 33.04% and 30.7%.

How to cite: Lu, R., Zhang, M., Li, Z., Yuan, P., and Jiang, W.: Improved multi-GNSS PPP-AR performance through refined tropospheric and multipath models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5095, 2025.

Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS) has been widely used in our daily life, due to its high-precision positioning ability. However, in urban environments, GNSS signals are prone to obstructions from tall buildings, leading to Non-Line-of-Sight (NLOS) errors and a significant decline in positioning accuracy. Machine learning (ML) techniques for NLOS detection has emerged as a significant research hotspot, thanks to its advantages, such as requiring no hardware modifications, achieving high accuracy, and offering practical applicability, etc. However, the existing research on ML-based NLOS detection usually relies on single models, which are prone to becoming trapped in local optima during the optimization process. To overcome this limitation, we propose a GNSS NLOS detection method based on the Stacking Ensemble Learning (SEL) model. Initially, the fisheye camera is utilized to generate NLOS labels, and five GNSS signal features are extracted: elevation angle, carrier-to-noise ratio (C/N₀), measurement residual, C/N₀ rate of change, and pseudorange standard deviation. Subsequently, the SEL model is designed with a two-layer structure. The first layer consists of basic ML classification models, including Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The second layer employs Logistic Regression (LR) as the meta-learning model to integrate the outputs from the first layer. Finally, the trained SEL model processes the five GNSS signal features in real time for detecting smartphone GNSS NLOS signals, and incorporates a weighted model for SPP positioning. Several smartphone-based vehicle experiments were conducted in different urban areas of Wuhan, China, to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experimental results demonstrate that the SEL method achieves GNSS NLOS detection accuracies exceeding 90%, with detection performance improvements ranging from 15.6% to 32.7%, compared with the single ML methods such as CNN, GBDT, RF, and SVM. Furthermore, the SEL method enhances 3D positioning accuracy, with improvements ranging from 26.7% to 39.6%. Particularly, in dense urban canyon areas, the vertical positioning accuracy is improved by up to 73.1%, effectively mitigating the impact of NLOS signals. This method requires no additional improvements to low-cost receiver hardware, thus offers potential for widespread application across various GNSS terminals, and provides new ideas for navigation and positioning in smart cities.

How to cite: liu, L., li, Z., and jiang, W.: An Enhanced Method for NLOS Signal Detection in Urban Environments based on Stacking Ensemble Learning for Smartphone Positioning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5389, 2025.

EGU25-6826 | ECS | Orals | G2.4

Performance Assessment of Galileo High Accuracy Service for PPP and Atmospheric Correction Impact in 2023 

Camille Parra, Urs Hugentobler, Thomas Pany, and Stefan Baumann

Since early 2023, the Galileo High Accuracy Service (HAS) has been officially providing free corrections for Precise Point Positioning (PPP). The HAS is structured into two service levels. The first level (SL1), currently available worldwide, delivers orbit and clock corrections along with code biases for three GPS frequencies (L1, L2C, L5) and four Galileo frequencies (E1, E5a, E5b, E6). The second level (SL2), which is planned to operate exclusively within the European Coverage Area (ECA), will include atmospheric corrections.

In January 2023, the Service Definition Document (SDD) established the targeted HAS accuracy at 15 centimeters horizontally and 20 centimeters vertically, with a confidence level of 68% for static users outside the Pacific region.

An initial evaluation of the HAS performance was conducted between Day of Year (DOY) 92 and DOY 153 of 2023. In terms of correction availability, the service supports an average of 16 to 21 corrected satellites (GPS and Galileo together), depending on the user’s location. Regarding accuracy, the corrections improved the Signal-In-Space Range Error (SISRE) by 54% for Galileo and 61% for GPS, when compared to broadcast ephemeris.

To validate the HAS corrections, Precise Point Positioning (PPP) was performed using data from 132 Regional Reference Frame Sub-Commission for Europe (EUREF) stations across Europe. The analysis was conducted in static mode with a dual-constellation configuration (GPS/Galileo), a 30-second sampling interval, float ambiguities, and uncombined measurements. The results achieved a 68% accuracy of 4.4 centimeters horizontally and 4.7 centimeters vertically.

These EUREF stations were subsequently employed to generate atmospheric corrections, specifically ionospheric and tropospheric, to test the second service level. Three station networks with varying densities were constructed, consisting of 132, 49, or 34 stations. After an evaluation of these atmospheric corrections coming from these networks, a PPP positioning over 64 other EUREF stations has been performed. This positioning was carried out in kinematic mode, using the same dual-constellation setup, 30-second sampling, float ambiguities, and uncombined measurements.

The results demonstrated that atmospheric corrections had a significant impact on positioning performance. The 68% accuracy improved by 43% horizontally and 47% vertically. Furthermore, the horizontal convergence time was reduced by half and is achieved in 60 minutes instead of 127 minutes. It highlights the potential benefits of the second service level for real-time applications.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

 We would like to acknowledge Munich Aerospace for the scholarship that made this study possible.

REFERENCES

[1] EUSPA, “Galileo high accuracy service service definition document (HAS SDD),” European Union, Tech. Rep., 2022.

How to cite: Parra, C., Hugentobler, U., Pany, T., and Baumann, S.: Performance Assessment of Galileo High Accuracy Service for PPP and Atmospheric Correction Impact in 2023, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6826, 2025.

EGU25-8092 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

Performance Analysis and Comparison of BDS-3 All-frequency Precise Point Positioning 

Le Wang, Chuangjie Ma, Bobin Cui, Guanwen Huang, and Qin Zhang

The BDS-3 provides signals at six different frequency bands, which are expected to improve the precision and convergence speed of Precise Point Positioning (PPP). To fully utilize the full-frequency data from BDS-3, three PPP function models were constructed: the six-frequency undifferenced and non-combined model (UC6), the single-layer six-frequency ionosphere-free model (IF6-1), and the six-frequency ionosphere-free dual-combination model (IF6-2).For the six-frequency undifferenced and non-combined model (UC6), the IFB (Inter-frequency Bias) processing strategy was studied, and the impact of three commonly used processing strategies on IFB estimation was analyzed. The results showed that when using constant models and random walk models, the estimated IFB values were similar, while the white noise model, despite slight fluctuations in the estimated IFB, exhibited a trend consistent with the other two models.The positioning experimental results indicated that the positioning accuracy after static convergence for the UC6, IF6-1, and IF6-2 models was similar. The horizontal mean accuracy was 1.36, 1.35, and 1.39 cm, respectively, and the vertical accuracy was 1.42, 1.45, and 1.63 cm. In dynamic mode, the horizontal accuracy was 4.04, 4.10, and 4.12 cm, and the vertical accuracy was 5.52 cm, 5.19 cm, and 5.02 cm.In terms of convergence time, the IF6-1 model showed superior static and dynamic convergence performance compared to the UC6 and IF6-2 models. Further analysis compared the receiver clock offsets, inter-frequency biases, and zenith wet delays between the different models. The receiver clock offset time series from all three models were consistent, and the inter-frequency bias for the same receiver model remained stable throughout the day. Additionally, the zenith wet delay estimates from all three models tended to converge after the process reached steady-state.

How to cite: Wang, L., Ma, C., Cui, B., Huang, G., and Zhang, Q.: Performance Analysis and Comparison of BDS-3 All-frequency Precise Point Positioning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8092, 2025.

EGU25-8500 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

Stand-alone, double differenced, and residual-based noise analysis of smartphone raw GNSS observations 

Caneren Gul and René Warnant

After Google’s release of Android Nougat (Android 7) in 2016, raw GNSS observations of Android smartphones have been freely accessible to the GNSS research community. Using smartphone raw GNSS measurements, numerous theories and practical methods were developed to achieve high precision in positioning, navigation, timing, and GNSS remote sensing. However, due to the chipset and built-in antenna quality, smartphone observations have more powerful noises compared to the geodetic grade GNSS receivers. Besides, frequent interruptions and cycle slips are present in smartphone observations. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve high positioning accuracy with smartphones, since it requires more sophisticated data processing methods. Smartphone stochastic modeling can be included in these methods since the variation of observation noise follows behaviors that are difficult to represent as a function of satellite elevation angle, while carrier-to-noise ratio (C/N0) representation provides a more suitable weighting scheme e.g., for smartphone Precise Point Positioning (PPP).
In addition to the current developments, analyzing the time-correlation behavior of smartphone observation noise can help to develop resilient algorithms for positioning, such as the detection of cycle slips, outliers, and adaptive filtering methods. In this contribution, we present noise analysis of smartphone raw GNSS measurements from different perspectives, namely stand-alone, double-differenced, and based on PPP residuals. To eliminate systematic effects such as the multipath effect from smartphone observations, we use a Kalman Filter algorithm and we compare it with Least Squares Harmonic Estimation (LS-HE). To investigate the time-correlation property of filtered observations, we use autocorrelation and Allan Deviation (AD) methods. Results showed that even if the strong periodicities of the multipath effect are filtered, there are residual multipath effects that remain in smartphone observations and residuals. Furthermore, AD analysis showed that smartphone observations/residuals contain white noise and time-correlated noise that exhibits similar characteristics to a Gauss–Markov process. Using these insights, our study discusses the influence of the weighting scheme and time-correlated errors on smartphone PPP and recently developed adaptive filtering techniques with the goal of improving PPP performance. We aim to provide a foundation for further advancements in modeling and mitigating multipath and time-correlated smartphone observation noises.

How to cite: Gul, C. and Warnant, R.: Stand-alone, double differenced, and residual-based noise analysis of smartphone raw GNSS observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8500, 2025.

EGU25-9469 | Posters on site | G2.4

Performance analysis of undifferenced and uncombined PPP based on CNES OSB products 

Guanwen Huang, Na Yang, and Le Wang

In precise point positioning, the fixed ambiguity can significantly improve the positioning accuracy of PPP and accelerate the convergence speed to a certain extent. The quality of phase deviation products directly determines the ambiguity resolution effect, and then affects the positioning performance of PPP-AR. At present, CNES is the only analysis center that publicly provides real-time observable-specific signal bias products (OSB). In order to promote the practical application of RT PPP-AR, it is necessary to evaluate the data quality and PPP-AR positioning performance of real-time OSB products provided by CNES. In this paper, the observation data of 42 MGEX stations from May 1, 2023 (DOY 121) to May 10, 2023 (DOY 130) are selected, and the positioning performance of PPP-AR is analyzed and evaluated after OSB product correction. In terms of OSB product quality, the data availability (DA) of GPS satellite is greater than 94%, that of Galileo satellite is less than 56%, and the standard deviations (STD) of GPS and Galileo satellite are 0.053 and 0.075, 0.031 and 0.044 respectively. After correction by OSB products, the percentage of wide lane (WL) residuals of GPS and Galileo systems exceeds 90% and 83% within 0.25 cycle, and the percentage of narrow lane (NL) residuals of the two systems within 0.25 cycle is 83% and 81% respectively. As far as the positioning performance of PPP-AR is concerned, the positioning errors of GPS+Galileo dynamic PPP-AR in E, N and U directions are 1.45 cm, 1.51 cm and 4.16cm, respectively, and the ambiguity fixing rate is about 97%. Compared with PPP, the convergence time of PPP-AR corrected by OSB products can be shortened by more than 59%. However, due to the lack of phase deviation, there is a phenomenon of re-convergence in the positioning process. In this paper, Grey model is used to predict OSB data, which has certain reliability and significantly improves the situation of re-convergence.

How to cite: Huang, G., Yang, N., and Wang, L.: Performance analysis of undifferenced and uncombined PPP based on CNES OSB products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9469, 2025.

EGU25-9510 | Posters on site | G2.4

Statistical Analysis of Trimble RTX Service Processing Results 

Deniz Oz Demir

This research involved an analysis aimed at determining the accuracy of results derived from the Trimble RTX web-based post-processing service for Multi-GNSS solutions. To achieve this, nine stations situated on the Eurasian plate were selected from the MGEX network set up by the IGS. A GNSS dataset from 2022 was processed using Trimble RTX. The data from these GNSS stations were analyzed as three satellite combinations: GPS-only, GPS-GLONASS, and GPS-GLONASS-Galileo.

Initially, a 3D transformation was applied to investigate statistically significant differences among the 24-hour processing results for the three combinations. Upon confirming that the differences in coordinates were statistically insignificant, the GNSS data was divided into two 12-hour datasets and three 8-hour datasets, which were then processed using Trimble RTX. The results from the 24-hour analysis were accepted as accurate for all three satellite combinations, and the differences between the 12-hour and 8-hour processing results were examined. The results indicated that, while the differences in coordinate components were insignificant, the use of all three satellite combination datasets contributed to both the Cartesian coordinate components and the standard deviation values.

How to cite: Oz Demir, D.: Statistical Analysis of Trimble RTX Service Processing Results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9510, 2025.

EGU25-9699 | Posters on site | G2.4

A practical methodology to scale velocity uncertainties derived from GNSS campaign time series 

D. Ugur Sanli, Mehmet Ercoban, Mehmet Can Aras, and Ece Uysal

GNSS campaigns are still in use today especially for the monitoring of natural hazards such as landslides and local subsidence. Studying the velocity uncertainty of GNSS campaign deformation monitoring is a challenge among scientists cause the velocity error cannot always be characterized as pure white noise.  We test the velocity uncertainty of GNSS campaign measurements referring to the mathematical theory developed to find the velocity uncertainty of GNSS continuous coordinate time series. GPS coordinate time series have been downloaded from the archive of NASA JPL. The time series have been decimated to annual synthetic GNSS campaigns because researchers usually can handle GNSS campaigns once every year in three or more consecutive days. Using the continuous GNSS coordinate campaigns we estimated the spectral indices for the 30 IGS stations spread across the globe. Then using these spectral indices and the formulation given in Zhang et al.1997, Mao et al. 1999, Dixon et al. 2000, and Williams 2003 we have developed a practical methodology to estimate noise amplitudes and velocity errors for the data of synthetically derived annual GNSS campaigns. The methodology avoids large matrix computations and consumes only a little PC memory. The velocity error derived using the above-mentioned approach has been cross validated by the velocity error derived from the sample of annual GPS campaign time series constituted employing the continuous GPS time series. 10-12 synthetically derived independent GPS annual campaign time series were formed from the continuous data of each of the thirty stations we used from the IGS network. Then the velocity error has been computed as the inter-quartile range of the velocities derived from those of the annually sampled time series. The inter-quartile range values are comparable with the velocity errors computed using the methodology described in this study. The significancy of the differences were also tested referring to Wilcoxon's Signed Rank hypothesis testing.  The method has been found to be promising for the velocity error estimation of GNSS campaign measurements.

How to cite: Sanli, D. U., Ercoban, M., Aras, M. C., and Uysal, E.: A practical methodology to scale velocity uncertainties derived from GNSS campaign time series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9699, 2025.

EGU25-9788 | ECS | Orals | G2.4

Range estimation method of LEO communication opportunity signals for alternative PNT  

mengyu ding, wu chen, junhui wang, yang yang, xiaolong mi, and huan luo

Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services have delivered significant benefits to modern society. Currently, much of our PNT needs are fulfilled by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). However, GNSS is facing a series of challenges, including signal blockage in dense urban areas, bush land and indoors and susceptivity to radio frequency interference. There is a urgent global demand for backup solutions to address the reliability of GNSS. The substantial expansion and massive deployment of small satellites have catalyzed the development of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communication constellations have been rapidly developed, such as SpaceX’s Starlink and China Satellite Network communication system. In the near future, these constellations are projected to comprise tens of thousands of satellites. These satellites present significant advantages over GNSS, such as operating at higher frequencies (over 10 GHz) and providing wider signal bandwidths (several hundred MHz), along with superior signal quality. Such attributes make them viable candidates for PNT solutions and open up opportunities to utilize their signals as alternative sources for PNT applications.

Due to unknown structure of commercial LEO communication signals, most positioning methods based on LEO communication satellites rely on Doppler measurements. However, Doppler-based positioning is challenging for high-dynamic objects and high-precision positioning, as it requires integrating over significant periods for range difference measurements and imposing height constraints. Previous experience suggests that positioning with ranging measurements significantly outperforms Doppler-based methods in terms of accuracy and applicability. Unlike GNSS, which has publicly available signal structures for obtaining range, LEO communication signal structures are not disclosed. Therefore, this study aims to develop algorithms for estimating ranging measurements derived from LEO communication signals with unknown signal structures.

The downlink signals of LEO communication systems (i.e. Starlink) are simulated. By employing the Primary Synchronization Signal (PSS) and Secondary Synchronization Signal (SSS) sequences as ranging sequences, we facilitate the coarse acquisition of communication satellites. Then, a Delay Lock Loop (DLL) is developed to track the PSS and SSS sequences to continuously estimate signal delays. Additionally, we exploit the benefits of Orthogonal Frequency-Division Multiplexing (OFDM) modulation in LEO communication signals by designing the multiple Phase Lock Loops (PLLs) to track various subcarriers. By applying the phase difference across different frequencies, we can construct artificial wavelengths at the meter level, akin to wide-lane combinations in GNSS. This approach can reduce the ambiguity in the integer number of wavelengths between the satellite and the receiver, which is a notable challenge in carrier measurements of high-frequency LEO communication signals. This study introduces two ranging schemes: one based on time delay estimation via synchronization sequences and the other on carrier phase tracking using multiple PLL. When combined with two-line element (TLE) files, these schemes enable a positioning service based on LEO communication satellites.

How to cite: ding, M., chen, W., wang, J., yang, Y., mi, X., and luo, H.: Range estimation method of LEO communication opportunity signals for alternative PNT , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9788, 2025.

The study of signatures in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) related to seismic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis, has predominantly focused on significant, high-impact occurences, such as the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami (Mw 9.2) [2] or the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event (Mw 9.0) [3]. These generate clear signatures in TEC time series, that can offer valuable insights in enhancing early warning systems for tsunamis. However, despite the knowledge gained from these significant events, there remains a crucial gap in the literature concerning smaller-scale seismic events presenting Mw7 and few meters high tsunami waves. Indeed, while earthquakes with Mw around 7 are not considered small in a general sense, they are relatively minor in terms of their ability to generate pronounced ionospheric perturbations. Nevertheless, their study is equally important due to their potential for significant impact on humans and the environment. This has been demonstrated in seismic regions like the Mediterranean Sea, where the tsunami waves are amplified by narrow straits and coastal configurations, making even smaller events highly destructive. This underscores the critical need for studies focused on smaller yet impactful events to improve real-time tsunami early warning systems. 

Motivated by the seismic nature of the Mediterranean region, marked by small-scale earthquakes and tsunamis from a ionospheric point of view,we carried out the study related to the detection of the small signatures generated in the ionosphere by the Samos earthquake and tsunami that occurred on 30 October2020 (Mw 7.0), causing tsunami waves up to 3 m. This study examines Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data to analyze the resulting ionospheric disturbances in total electron content (TEC) measurements. We detected TEC variations of up to 0.3 TECU, associated with the propagation of internal gravity waves (IGWs) triggered by the small tsunami. By comparing the IGWs' arrival times in the ionosphere with tsunami wave arrivals at tide gauges, we found that optimal ionospheric TEC observation geometries detected the tsunami's presence before it reached the Kos and Heraklion coastlines. Our findings demonstrate that even small TEC variations can complement existing tsunami early warning systems. This is particularly valuable in the Mediterranean region, where such phenomena remain underexplored. Integrating TEC data with traditional seismic sensors and sea level measurements can enhance early warning systems, improving their capacity to detect and mitigate the effects of small but significant tsunamis.

The results are published in Fuso & Ravanelli (2024) [1].

[1] Fuso, F., & Ravanelli, M. (2024). Probing the ionospheric effects of the 2020 Aegean Sea earthquake: Leveraging GNSS observations for tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics129(12), e2024JA032946.

[2] Occhipinti, G., Lognonné, P., Kherani, E. A., & Hébert, H. (2006). Three‐dimensional waveform modeling of ionospheric signature induced by the 2004 Sumatra tsunami. Geophysical research letters33(20).

[3] Occhipinti, G., Rolland, L., Lognonné, P., & Watada, S. (2013). From Sumatra 2004 to Tohoku‐Oki 2011: The systematic GPS detection of the ionospheric signature induced by tsunamigenic earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics118(6), 3626-3636.

How to cite: Fuso, F. and Ravanelli, M.: Investigating Ionospheric Disturbances from the 2020 Samos Earthquake and Tsunami: Advancing GNSS-Based Tsunami Early Warning in the Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10748, 2025.

EGU25-10805 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

Real-time GNSS for geosciences: Initial assessment of new data products from GFZ 

Andreas Brack, Shengping He, Shi Du, and Jens Wickert

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are used for various applications in the Earth and atmospheric sciences, navigation, surveying and mapping, as well as in early warning systems for geo-hazards. Solutions are often required to not only be of high accuracy, integrity, and continuity, but also to be available in real-time with a delay of only a few seconds. A prerequisite for real-time precise point positioning (PPP) are precise satellite orbit and clock products. While satellite orbits can be predicted with high precision, at least for a few hours, the satellite clocks have to be estimated using real-time GNSS data from a global network of reference stations and distributed via real-time data streams to the user. GFZ is operating a real-time GNSS analysis center, which is contributing to the Real-Time Service (RTS) of the International GNSS Service (IGS). In this contribution, we introduce the new GFZ in-house real-time GNSS network analysis software that is currently being developed and provide an initial assessment of the generated products.

In the first development stage that is presented in this contribution, the generated products contain satellite orbits and satellite clocks referring to the ionosphere-free code observations. The orbits are taken from the predicted part of the operational GFZ IGS ultra-rapid GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo solution, which are updated every three hours. The associated satellite clocks are estimated every five seconds using a recursive least-squares estimator from globally recorded real-time dual-frequency code and phase observations, together with receiver clock parameters, tropospheric zenith delay parameters, inter-system biases, and carrier-phase ambiguities.

Important aspects are the data cleaning to obtain high-quality results and an efficient implementation of the estimation filter to satisfy the delay requirements of the products – less than five seconds for the IGS. For the data cleaning and cycle-slip detection, the concept of single-receiver, single-channel integrity is used, in which the uniformly most powerful invariant test statistics are evaluated separately for each satellite-receiver link using its code and phase observations of two consecutive epochs. For the estimation filter, a sequential Kalman filter implementation using the standard covariance form is used. ‘Sequential’ refers to the strategy that the scalar observations of the same epoch are processed sequentially one at a time, leading to a more efficient operation of the filter compared to the case that the entire vector of measurements is processed at once. With this strategy, the processing time per epoch is around two seconds.

An initial evaluation of this real-time satellite orbit and clock product will be presented by means of a direct comparison to post-processed multi-GNSS reference products and a comparison of PPP analyses using in addition also broadcast navigation data and real-time products of other analysis centers.

How to cite: Brack, A., He, S., Du, S., and Wickert, J.: Real-time GNSS for geosciences: Initial assessment of new data products from GFZ, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10805, 2025.

The high latitudes are widely recognized as the most disturbed region of the ionosphere. The reason for that is the shape of the geomagnetic field and, related to this,  the precipitation of energetic particles originating from the solar wind. The consequence of the strong plasma variation in the polar and auroral ionosphere is the deterioration of GNSS signal amplitude and phase, which may lead to losses of phase lock and cycle slips. The latter impact results in challenging scenarios for GNSS precise positioning based on phase data,  but it may also be used to indicate the high-latitude ionosphere conditions. Since there is a correlation between GNSS signals scintillation and cycle slips, the analysis of the second parameter may support the climatological investigations for this area. Such an assumption allows us to use conventional GNSS data from permanent networks (of 1-30 s sampling rate), significantly extending the spatiotemporal distribution of measurements. Nevertheless, the adoption of cycle-slips number as a parameter describing ionospheric activity has to be preceded by cross-evaluation of its behaviour for different receivers and signals. This step is crucial, considering the increasing number of GNSS constellations and signals.

Motivated by such developments, we investigated the occurrence of cycle slips in GNSS phase data recorded by stations located at northern high latitudes. The basis for the analysis was multi-GNSS observations (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, BDS) collected by permanent IGS/EPN stations. As a test period, we selected two major geomagnetic storms in 2024, which took place in May and October. The analysis confirms significant differences between the number of cycle slips for a particular system and signal. The discrepancies are also observed for collocated stations equipped with different receivers. The results indicate a need for unifying multi-GNSS cycle-slip numbers for climatological ionospheric studies.

How to cite: Sieradzki, R. and Paziewski, J.: The cycle-slips occurrence at high-latitude GNSS stations during geomagnetic storms – inter-receiver and inter-signal comparison, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12253, 2025.

EGU25-12545 | Posters on site | G2.4

SPOTGINS: A New Global GNSS Daily iPPP Solution Derived Using GINS software  

Jean-Paul Boy, Florent Fériol, Médéric Gravelle, Gaël Janex, Sylvain Loyer, Samuel Nahmani, Joëlle Nicolas, Arnaud Pollet, Pierre Sakic, Alvaro Santamaría-Gómez, and Aubin-Blériot Tsapong-Tsague

The growing interest of the GNSS community in computing GNSS series using the iPPP (Precise Point Positioning with integer ambiguity resolution) mode with the GINS software and the products of the CNES/CLS analysis center (GRG products) culminated in 2022 with the SPOTGINS project. This initiative enables several research laboratories to cooperate in processing a global network of stations, benefiting from the expertise of the IGS analysis center and the advanced quality of the GRG products.

This standardization and collaboration require a unified computational strategy, involving the same version of the GINS software, identical configurations (products, corrections, models, constellations), and consistent metadata. Currently, daily station positions are computed using GPS and Galileo constellations, using the “G20” orbits and clocks from the IGS CNES-CLS based on ITRF2020, FES2014b ocean tidal loading and VMF1 mapping functions.

SPOTGINS started in 2022 with the collaboration between the OMP in Toulouse, the EOST in Strasbourg and the LIENSs in La Rochelle, whose massive calculations with GINS were already being done for several years. In 2023 and 2024, other groups expressed interest in joining SPOTGINS: the GeF/Cnam in Le Mans, the IPGP/IGN in Paris and the OSUG/ISTerre in Grenoble. Each member pursues different scientific objectives, but all contribute  collectively to the dissemination of PPP series for the community through the Geodesy Plotter of the FormaTerre data and service hub.

How to cite: Boy, J.-P., Fériol, F., Gravelle, M., Janex, G., Loyer, S., Nahmani, S., Nicolas, J., Pollet, A., Sakic, P., Santamaría-Gómez, A., and Tsapong-Tsague, A.-B.: SPOTGINS: A New Global GNSS Daily iPPP Solution Derived Using GINS software , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12545, 2025.

EGU25-13055 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

Evaluation of the ability of a cargo-ship GNSS network to detect tsunamis in the Solomon Islands region 

Bruce Enki Oscar Thomas, Jean Roger, and James Foster

The southwest Pacific Region regularly produces tsunamis triggered by strong earthquakes of magnitude up to M8.1 associated to its complex tectonics and subduction processes. According to the NOAA/NCEI database, these tsunamis represent about one quarter of the tsunamis recorded worldwide. Some of them have been catastrophic for coastal populations in terms of the number of dead and injured and destructions of infrastructures or agriculture land. For example, the 2007 Solomon Islands & the 2009 Samoa tsunamis killed 50 and 192 people, respectively and did hundreds of millions of US dollars in damage. The present study focuses on the Solomon Islands which has suffered from several recent destructive tsunamis, including the tsunami in 2007, and a doublet tsunami in 2016. Only a few tide gauges and 2 Australian DART captured the tsunami signal, demonstrating the need for more densely spaced observations and direct measurements from the ocean, in order to improve the warning procedures, reducing the alert timing. One way to increase this observing capacity is to fill the geodetic observation gap in the ocean using a network of cargo-ships equipped with GNSS systems tracking anomalous variations of the sea-level. These measurements can potentially detect tsunamis of different origins. To complete the few available studies focusing on the Solomon Islands tsunamis, the project aims (i) to model the 2007 and 2016 tsunamis using the records/observations on land or close to the shore (e.g., seismic network, land-based GNSS and tide-gauges data), (ii) to compare their source and impact on population and infrastructure, (iii) to analyze what a constantly moving cargo-ship GNSS network might experience in terms of tsunami travel time and tsunami predicted amplitudes, and (iv) to determine how useful such a cargo-ship GNSS network would be to increase our ability to detect and respond to these hazards through local early warning. By exploring the relationship between tsunami sources, travel times and amplitudes using ships’ locations, the study seeks to determine the ability of a defined regional ship network to function as a low-cost method to improve the detection of tsunamis, and to improve effective warnings and hazard mitigation for coastal areas and the exposed communities in the region.

How to cite: Thomas, B. E. O., Roger, J., and Foster, J.: Evaluation of the ability of a cargo-ship GNSS network to detect tsunamis in the Solomon Islands region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13055, 2025.

EGU25-14893 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

Enhancing GNSS Positioning Accuracy in Urban Canyons: A Multi-Epoch Residual-Based Consistency Check and IMU-GNSS Tight Coupling Approach 

huan luo, Yang Yang, Xiaolong Mi, Mengyu Ding, and Wu Chen

As urban populations continue to grow, the demand for precise positioning has become increasingly critical for various applications, including navigation, location-based services (LBS), transportation, delivery, and logistics. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are widely utilized for positioning; however, they encounter significant challenges in urban canyons, where signal obstructions and reflections can degrade positioning accuracy by tens to hundreds of meters.

To address these challenges, existing consistency check methods have been developed to detect and exclude erroneous observations from multiple GNSS constellations, thereby improving performance in open or low-density urban environments. Nevertheless, high-density urban areas present difficulties, as the majority of GNSS signals are often compromised by non-line-of-sight (NLOS) reception and multipath interference. While the integration of inertial sensors with GNSS technology has shown effectiveness in addressing GNSS outages, the accumulation of drift errors in pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) still hinder performance in dense urban settings where GNSS solutions are consistently unreliable.

In this study, we propose a novel approach that tightly integrates PDR and GNSS data in the measurement domain to effectively identify fault-free measurements amidst a backdrop of contaminated signals. We introduce a multi-epoch smoothing algorithm designed to enhance positioning accuracy. Our method employs a two-stage consistency check algorithm to mitigate multipath effects, incorporating both satellite quality assessments and grid quality evaluations based on raw GNSS observations and inertial sensor data. Notably, we leverage time-series residuals from multi-epoch GNSS observations to identify fault-free measurements, moving beyond the limitations of single-epoch data. Additionally, grid quality is evaluated based on the discrepancies in residuals among high-quality satellites. To bolster the robustness and reliability of positioning, our algorithm integrates a positioning scheme that utilizes weight smoothing based on multi-epoch grid mapping and outlier mitigation through density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) clustering.

Field experiments conducted in typical urban environments in Hong Kong, utilizing a standard smartphone as the receiver, demonstrated substantial improvements over conventional consistency check methods and chip outputs. Our findings reveal that traditional consistency check methods underperformed compared to chip outputs in dense urban areas. In contrast, the proposed method significantly enhanced positioning accuracy across all trials, achieving accuracies ranging from 2m to 10m, compared to chip outputs that varied from 5m to 58m. The proposed approach yielded an improvement rate of 50% to 88% across different urban densities.

This innovative method is compatible with most consumer-grade devices, requiring no additional hardware, thereby offering enhanced convenience and intelligence for urban residents. Its ease of implementation across various brands and real-time operation with low computational load make it a versatile solution for improving positioning accuracy in complex urban environments.

How to cite: luo, H., Yang, Y., Mi, X., Ding, M., and Chen, W.: Enhancing GNSS Positioning Accuracy in Urban Canyons: A Multi-Epoch Residual-Based Consistency Check and IMU-GNSS Tight Coupling Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14893, 2025.

EGU25-15232 | ECS | Orals | G2.4

Enhancing PPP Performance with Multi-GNSS Satellite Products and Integer Ambiguity Resolution 

Marcus Franz Wareyka-Glaner and Gregor Möller

In recent decades, Precise Point Positioning (PPP) has become a well-established GNSS positioning method that is used in various applications. PPP is characterized by the use of precise satellite products (satellite orbits, clocks, and biases) combined with the accurate modeling of various error sources and elaborate algorithms. This way, PPP allows us to achieve position accuracies at the centimeter or even millimeter level. Nowadays, several institutions provide high-quality multi-GNSS satellite products through the International GNSS Service (IGS). These modern satellite products enable, for example, integer ambiguity fixing and incorporating observations from multiple GNSS in the PPP solution, typically enhancing the PPP performance.

In this contribution, we provide an overview of the currently available multi-GNSS satellite products and discuss their potential benefits of using 2+ frequencies and alternatives to the ionosphere-free linear combination. These methods are considered advantageous for improving PPP performance, particularly regarding convergence time. We present PPP results using GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou observations and satellite products from different institutions, focusing on integer ambiguity resolution (PPP-AR). Additionally, we test the combined multi-GNSS product developed by the GNSS Research Center at Wuhan University as part of the IGS PPP-AR Pilot Project. We evaluate the resulting coordinate accuracy, convergence behavior, and ambiguity fixing rates. The PPP investigations are conducted with the open-source raPPPid, part of the Vienna VLBI and Satellite Software (VieVS PPP). 

How to cite: Wareyka-Glaner, M. F. and Möller, G.: Enhancing PPP Performance with Multi-GNSS Satellite Products and Integer Ambiguity Resolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15232, 2025.

EGU25-15685 | Posters on site | G2.4

Automated S-Wave Arrival Timing in GNSS Instantaneous Velocity Data Without Frequency-Domain Pre-Filtering 

Alexandru Mihai Lapadat, Hubert Pierzchala, Iwona Kudłacik, Yiting Cai, Osmari Aponte, Eduard Ilie Nastase, and Maciej Lackowski

Seismic monitoring depends on accurately identifying P-wave and S-wave arrivals, which are critical for earthquake localization and Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). In EEW networks, a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-driven geodetic component enhances lead-time estimation and ground-shaking assessment, particularly for large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0). Advancing S-wave detection algorithms is essential to providing fast and reliable warnings to communities.

This study presents a sliding-window-based algorithm designed to detect the first time of arrival (ToA) of S-waves in high-rate (<1 Hz) GNSS instantaneous velocity time series without frequency-domain pre-filtering. The algorithm employs a three-phase process: (1) preprocessing, (2) statistical analysis and hypothesis testing for extracting ground-shaking disturbances, and (3) S-wave picking. It is implemented in an open-source Python-based toolbox, which also provides auxiliary seismic data, including ground-shaking duration, component-wise Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), and waveform energy.

The algorithm’s performance was evaluated using data from the 2016 Mw 6.2 Norcia and 2023 Mw 7.7 Kahramanmaraş-Gaziantep earthquakes. Results showed root mean square errors (RMSE) of 1.8 seconds and 3.8 seconds, respectively, when compared to ground-truth S-wave arrivals derived from P-wave readings on seismic waveforms recorded within 5 km of the GNSS sensors using the auxiliary Pphase-Picker software. The P-wave readings were extrapolated to GNSS sensor locations assuming equal P-wave velocities and a P-to-S-wave velocity ratio of 1.5.

Severe ground-shaking durations of up to 80 and 250 seconds, along with short S-P times of 3-5 seconds for the town of Norcia and the city of Gaziantep, highlight the severity of these events. This study demonstrates the new algorithm’s potential to enhance GNSS-based S-wave detection.

How to cite: Lapadat, A. M., Pierzchala, H., Kudłacik, I., Cai, Y., Aponte, O., Nastase, E. I., and Lackowski, M.: Automated S-Wave Arrival Timing in GNSS Instantaneous Velocity Data Without Frequency-Domain Pre-Filtering, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15685, 2025.

EGU25-17355 | Posters on site | G2.4

Towards new CODE analysis products based on GPS L1/L5 signals 

Maciej Kalarus, Stefan Schaer, Rolf Dach, Daniel Arnold, and Adrian Jaeggi

To meet the demanding requirements in terms of accuracy and availability, GPS has introduced the signals on L5 that are compatible to Galileo E5a signals. The L5 signal was designed to mitigate the multipath and poor performance in harsh environments such as indoor, forests, and areas affected by jamming. As the L2 signal will become obsolete in the future, action must be taken to take advantage of the modern signal type which is currently broadcast by 19 out of GPS satellites. This is particularly important for some future LEO satellites (e.g. EPS-SG) which will rely exclusively on L1/L5. CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) is building up a prototype processing chain to generate L1/L5-based clock and bias products in addition to the classic L1/L2-based processing chain. First results regarding analysis product consistency are presented.

How to cite: Kalarus, M., Schaer, S., Dach, R., Arnold, D., and Jaeggi, A.: Towards new CODE analysis products based on GPS L1/L5 signals, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17355, 2025.

EGU25-17541 | Posters on site | G2.4

Impact of tropospheric and atmospheric loading models on the repeatability of GNSS solutions 

Hicham Dekkiche, Houaria Namaoui, and Walid Bouaoula

The tropospheric effect is considered as one of the most significant sources of error limiting GNSS positioning accuracy. In addition, atmospheric mass loading, which is seasonally variable, can also affect the repeatability of daily GNSS positions to a minor level. Therefore, the correct modelling of tropospheric and atmospheric loading effects is crucial to achieve the suitable accuracy, especially in high-accuracy GNSS applications. The aim of this work is to study the impact of tropospheric modelling and atmospheric mass loading on the repeatability of daily GNSS solutions. The research methodology is based on the analysis of GNSS data obtained from the IGS network, incorporating multiple processing scenarios including different mapping functions, elevation masks, and atmospheric mass loading. The analysis studies data from contrasting geographical locations (mid-latitude and polar regions), and accounts for seasonal variations by analysing measurements taken during both summer and winter periods, enabling a comprehensive assessment of how these various factors influence GNSS data processing outcomes, especially the daily position repeatabilities. The obtained results show that the efficiency of the mapping functions varies from one region to another. Furthermore, the consideration of atmospheric mass loading affects the performance of the mapping functions.

How to cite: Dekkiche, H., Namaoui, H., and Bouaoula, W.: Impact of tropospheric and atmospheric loading models on the repeatability of GNSS solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17541, 2025.

EGU25-18016 | Posters on site | G2.4

Applicability of multi-layered mapping function to STEC/VTEC conversion – validation in PPP positioning and GNSS observation domains 

Paweł Wielgosz, Rafał Sieradzki, Jacek Paziewski, Mainul Hoque, Olaf Frauenberger, Narayan Dhital, Grzegorz Nykiel, Beata Milanowska, and Raul Orus Perez

Recently, we have observed remarkable progress in algorithms aimed at precise point positioning (PPP) based on uncombined GNSS observations, also with an integer ambiguity resolution. Despite the high potential of such a model, its performance still depends on several factors, among which is the a priori information on slant total electron content (STEC), which is crucial. The ionospheric corrections may be obtained by converting VTEC from global ionosphere maps (GIM) using the selected ionospheric mapping function (MF). Thus, the accuracy of such STECs depends on the uncertainties introduced by both GIMs and MFs. Considering the latter, the most common approach is using a single-layer model (SLM) with a zenith angle as a parameter. However, it may be less effective for regions with strong TEC gradients that depend on azimuth. Improving such areas seems feasible with the support of ionosphere models and multi-layered mapping functions.

In this study, we evaluate the new multi-layered mapping functions. The new functions were developed, taking the Neustrelitz TEC Model as a basis. In this case, the ionosphere comprises numerous thin shells, and the ratio of aggregated slant and vertical TEC values provides the modeled mapping factors. Such derived MFs were validated based on PPP positioning performance. Also, an agreement analysis using the geometry-free linear combination was performed to assess the MFs in the GNSS observation domain.  The preliminary tests involved GNSS data from several globally distributed stations, corresponding to different daily patterns of the ionosphere. The analysis provides the statistics for the low solar activity period (year 2019).  According to the results, we can report a slight benefit from applying the multi-layered mapping function for PPP performance compared to the standard SLM approach. The advancement is the most noticeable for the positioning initialization period and, therefore, is reflected in the convergence time. The analysis performed with the geometry-free linear combination is consistent with PPP results, and it highlights the highest potential of the multi-layered mapping function for the equatorial region.

How to cite: Wielgosz, P., Sieradzki, R., Paziewski, J., Hoque, M., Frauenberger, O., Dhital, N., Nykiel, G., Milanowska, B., and Orus Perez, R.: Applicability of multi-layered mapping function to STEC/VTEC conversion – validation in PPP positioning and GNSS observation domains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18016, 2025.

EGU25-18548 | Posters on site | G2.4

On the applicability of low-cost GNSS antennas to precise surveying applications 

Karol Dawidowicz, Jacek Paziewski, Grzegorz Krzan, and Katarzyna Stępniak

This study addresses the scientific question of the applicability of low-cost antennas to the most precise GNSS applications. First of all, we inspect the implications of the availability and quality of low-cost antenna PCC models for precise positioning. From this point of view, we analyze the selected performance indicators of multi-constellation positioning with the representative set of low-cost mass-market GNSS receiver antennas. The processing strategy was based on the relative positioning model, considered the most reliable and precise one. To isolate the antenna-related errors from atmospheric propagation ones, we conducted an experiment based on an ultra-short baseline. As the main indications of low-cost antenna performance, we considered distance and height residuals, defined as the difference between benchmarks and the retrieved from GNSS measurements. We found that the low-cost antenna's PCV effect may significantly affect the final results. On the other hand, the results obtained using certain configurations of low-cost antennas were characterized by only slightly higher standard deviations and discrepancies with respect to benchmark values than those obtained with surveying or geodetic equipment. We identify several sets of low-cost antennas where distance residuals do not exceed 4 mm and height residuals do not exceed 6 mm, which shows the low-cost antenna performance comparable to those achieved using high-grade antennas. On this basis, we conclude that selected low-cost antennas can meet the requirements of high-precision surveying applications.

How to cite: Dawidowicz, K., Paziewski, J., Krzan, G., and Stępniak, K.: On the applicability of low-cost GNSS antennas to precise surveying applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18548, 2025.

EGU25-19075 | ECS | Orals | G2.4

Impact of on-board satellite orbits and clocks estimation for LEO-PNT ground positioning 

Jillian Oduber, Lotfi Massarweh, and Jose van den IJssel

Low Earth Orbit Positioning Navigation and Timing (LEO-PNT) is an emerging satellite navigation concept to augment current Global Navigation Satellite Systems by placing satellites close to Earth, at around 600-1200 km altitude. This proximity leads to a rapid change in satellite geometry, which is mainly expected to reduce the convergence time of real-time precise positioning. To realize the benefits of LEO’s faster dynamics, the positions and clock offsets of the LEO-PNT satellites must be known with a high accuracy and low latency. In existing GNSS constellations deployed in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), global networks of ground stations are generally used to estimate the satellite positions and clock offsets, which are then uplinked to the satellites for broadcast to users. This same approach for LEO-PNT systems would require an extensive ground network due to their closer proximity to Earth. Instead, on-board GNSS-based Precise Orbit Determination (POD) for LEO-PNT satellites offers a feasible alternative. 

This study investigates the impact on ground positioning users when performing on-board POD for LEO-PNT satellites. The numerical assessment consists of two parts: in the first part we focus on the on-board POD results by using Sentinel-6A real-world data from DOY 118-124 in 2024 including both GPS and Galileo observations. A reduced-dynamics extended Kalman filter POD approach with degraded dynamical models is used to replicate on-board processing conditions. Various types of GNSS corrections are tested to assess the POD accuracy achievable on board. 3D RMS orbit errors of 2.8 cm, 4.8 cm, 9.9 cm, and 15.2 cm are obtained in the numerical POD computations respectively based on the CODE MGEX final products (COD), the CNES Real-Time products (CRT), the Galileo High Accuracy Service corrections (HAS), and the broadcast ephemerides (BRD). Moreover, we compare the estimated receiver clock offsets with respect to a precise reference clock solution computed in a batch-least squares approach without orbital model degradation. 

In the second part, we focus on the impact of these LEO orbit and clock errors in an end-to-end simulation of kinematic float-PPP for a ground user. A LEO space segment of 28 satellites was simulated to augment the cases of GPS only, Galileo only, and GPS+Galileo, while considering different product configurations. The results showed that a LEO space segment with CRT-level orbit and clock errors could consistently improve the convergence time as compared to each corresponding stand-alone MEO case. For a HAS ground user using GPS and Galileo, the LEO with HAS-level orbit errors achieved 20 cm horizontal convergence under 3 minutes when clock errors were neglected. At the same time, the overall positioning accuracy results did not show significant improvement nor degradation from including the LEO space segment. Based on our preliminary findings, the expected benefits of LEO-PNT augmentation are only possible when sufficiently accurate orbits and clocks are estimated and provided to users. Still, the impact of the correction latency and availability shall be further investigated in future works.

How to cite: Oduber, J., Massarweh, L., and van den IJssel, J.: Impact of on-board satellite orbits and clocks estimation for LEO-PNT ground positioning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19075, 2025.

EGU25-19300 | ECS | Orals | G2.4

On the intricacies of multi-epoch filtered PPP-RTK corrections and their impact on GNSS ambiguity resolution 

Dimitrios Psychas, Amir Khodabandeh, and Peter J. G. Teunissen

Precise point positioning real-time kinematic (PPP-RTK), by capitalizing on its state-space representation (SSR) and its associated flexibility, is naturally emerging as one of the prevalent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) techniques for high-precision positioning. The determination of unbiased ambiguity-resolved positional parameters becomes possible once single-receiver users get access to SSR corrections. However, the fact that such SSR corrections are often estimated in a recursive manner, based on a set of assumptions and a singularity-basis (S-basis) choice made in an arbitrary fashion by the correction provider (i.e., a GNSS network), may lead to serious pitfalls which the PPP-RTK user should be aware of when interpreting the delivered corrections. In this contribution, we will present the intricacies inherent in multi-epoch filtered PPP-RTK corrections and address the consequence of the corrections’ dependency on the provider’s S-basis. Through illustrative examples, it is shown how one can be misled by merely analyzing the estimable satellite clock solutions’ temporal characteristics, and how the distributional properties of the satellite phase bias solutions can be affected in case only their fractional part is delivered, contrary to the users’ usual expectation of being equipped with Gaussian-distributed phase biases. Next to this analysis, the important roles played by the correction latency and time correlation are addressed in both ambiguity-resolved positioning and the associated ambiguity-float and -fixed confidence information reported by the user estimation process.

How to cite: Psychas, D., Khodabandeh, A., and Teunissen, P. J. G.: On the intricacies of multi-epoch filtered PPP-RTK corrections and their impact on GNSS ambiguity resolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19300, 2025.

EGU25-20749 | Orals | G2.4

Investigating Galileo Signal Tracking Challenges in Smartphones 

Farzaneh Zangenehnejad, Mohamed Elsheikh, Fei Liu, and Yang Gao

Since 2016, Android smartphones have allowed access to the raw GNSS data, leading to significant improvements in positioning accuracy. Modern devices now support dual-frequency GNSS and multiple satellite systems, making positioning more reliable. Despite significant efforts in GNSS smartphone positioning, including using the Galileo constellation, several important issues still need to be addressed. Galileo signals have more complex modulation schemes compared to GPS signals. Practical tests show that after a short period, Galileo measurements' status may change from 'TOW Decoded' to 'E1C 2nd Code' status, where TOW represents the GNSS time of week. The receiver can stay on the 'E1C 2nd Code' status for several minutes. Some Galileo-ready chips track the data component to decode the navigation message. Once the ephemerides and clock data are decoded, they switch to tracking the E1C (pilot component), resulting in the 'E1C 2nd Code' status and ambiguous pseudoranges. In the current Galileo tracking approach, some satellites remain in 'TOW Known' or 'TOW Decoded' status for over an hour, while others switch to 'E1C 2nd Code Lock', resulting in ambiguous pseudoranges. The algorithm used to determine the tracking status for each satellite remains unclear. The white paper published by the European GNSS Agency’s (GSA) recommends checking the Galileo tracking status and highly advises using Galileo measurements only when in the E1C 2nd Code status.

In this research, we will show that a 4 ms jump is still observed in some datasets, even though the tracking status is E1C 2nd Code. This confirms that verifying the signal tracking status alone is insufficient, as 4 ms jumps in the data can still occur despite this check. During these "jump epochs," erroneous measurements can adversely affect positioning accuracy. To investigate this issue, data collected by the Xiaomi Mi8 and Google Pixel 8 Pro devices are used. The results indicate that these jumps vary between devices and over time. The results also show that these jumps still occur, even though the tracking status is E1C 2nd Code.

This 4 ms jump has also been addressed by Galluzzo et al. (2018) during the 2018 IPIN conference. They proposed a straightforward method to correct the pseudorange by detecting jumps through the difference between two consecutive epochs. If the difference is around 4 ms, the subsequent pseudoranges are adjusted accordingly. Although the theory behind this method is straightforward and effective in many cases, it cannot detect all jumps, for example, when those satellites first appear or when the pseudorange is missing. In this research, we employ the Observation Minus Calcaulation (OMC) to solve this issue and find the undetected 4 ms jumps. Finally, we investigate the accuracy of the kinematic data from Xiaomi Mi8 and Google Pixel 8 Pro devices with and without corrections for the 4 ms jumps. The results showed performance improvement in terms of the root mean square (RMS) and the 50th percentile of the horizontal positioning error after applying the correction for the 4 ms jump in Galileo measurements.

How to cite: Zangenehnejad, F., Elsheikh, M., Liu, F., and Gao, Y.: Investigating Galileo Signal Tracking Challenges in Smartphones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20749, 2025.

EGU25-21876 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.4

Analysis of Stability and Temperature Variations in SAPOS Reference Stations in Lower Saxonyand Adjacent Regions between 2017 and 2020 

Yancho Zhu, Steffen Schön, and Cord Hinrich Jahn

This study examines the stability and temperature variations of SAPOS reference stations across Lower Saxony and neighboring federal states over a four-year period (2017–2020). SAPOS, the Satellite Positioning Service of the German National Survey, provides high-precision geodetic
reference points essential for applications such as surveying, navigation, and geographic information systems (GIS). Data from 43 SAPOS stations in Lower Saxony, ten SAPOS stations in adjacent regions, and 54 German Weather Service (DWD) stations were analysed using custom programs in Python
and MATLAB. The findings demonstrate the high SAPOS availability and station quality, though systematic effects were identified in the cleaned time series of topocentric coordinates for certain stations. These effects relate to multipath sensitivity, assessed using the Multipath Indicator (MPI),
which reflects signal reflection interference, confirming the high quality of SAPOS stations. The study corrected these effects via drift and offset adjustments and outlier removal. The analysis investigated five categories of deviations, revealing recurring patterns influenced by station type and installation characteristics. Notably, unilateral solar exposure and temperature fluctuations at the Braunschweig station caused deviations of up to 5 mm in the north and east components of topocentric coordinates.

How to cite: Zhu, Y., Schön, S., and Jahn, C. H.: Analysis of Stability and Temperature Variations in SAPOS Reference Stations in Lower Saxonyand Adjacent Regions between 2017 and 2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21876, 2025.

EGU25-3961 | PICO | G2.5

A Cost-Effective Crowdsourced Q4DIM Method for Rapid PPP Implementation in Wide Areas 

Bo Wang, Shengfeng Gu, Jiaxi Zhu, and Jiayu Hu

As Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning technology rapidly advances, Precise Point Positioning (PPP) has found widespread application in the mass market, particularly for vehicle navigation. PPP enhanced by atmospheric corrections was proven to be an effective rapid high-precision positioning method for wide-area users. The Quasi‐4‐Dimension Ionospheric Modeling (Q4DIM) is a flexible atmospheric model that enables enhanced PPP positioning from wide-area to regional applications. It divides the slant ionospheric delays (SIDs) from a station network into various clusters based on the latitude and longitude of the Ionosphere Piercing Point (IPP), satellite elevation, and satellite azimuth. These clusters are used for the correction of atmospheric errors in PPP and ionosphere monitoring. As devices capable of GNSS positioning become increasingly available in the mass market, effectively utilizing these observations could significantly reduce costs and broaden the range of rapid PPP services. In this contribution, we developed a crowdsourcing Q4DIM approach, where users upload SIDs verified for integrity to the cloud server, which classifies and stores the data based on accuracy, location, and the level of services utilized. Then, the cloud server constructs and disseminates diversity Q4DIM maps according to the different level attributes of SIDs. Finally, the users utilize the updated Q4DIM maps to achieve faster and more precise positioning. 144 sets of control experiments are conducted with observations from European Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). Stations with an average inter-station distance of about 200 km are chosen as reference stations that are used for extracting the original Q4DIM map. The remaining stations are established as dynamically estimated crowdsourced stations for extracting the crowdsourced Q4DIM map. Results show that the performance of PPP enhanced by the crowdsourced Q4DIM map is significantly improved than those of the original Q4DIM map. The positioning error series of the original solution converges within 9 epochs to within 10 cm in the horizontal direction and 20 cm in the vertical direction, while the positioning error series of the crowdsourced solution reaches 2.3 cm in the horizontal direction and 7.6 cm in the vertical direction in 2 epochs. Compared to the original solution, the positioning accuracy of the new method improved by 48.2% in the horizontal direction and 41.2% in the vertical direction.

How to cite: Wang, B., Gu, S., Zhu, J., and Hu, J.: A Cost-Effective Crowdsourced Q4DIM Method for Rapid PPP Implementation in Wide Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3961, 2025.

EGU25-7129 | ECS | PICO | G2.5

Cost-efficient dual-frequency GNSS receivers: quality assessment for geophysical applications 

Mario D'Acquisto, Markus Ramatschi, and Benjamin Männel

Lately, multi-frequency GNSS signal availability have become more commonplace, while dual-frequency receiving capability, previously restricted to expensive geodetic-grade instruments, appeared in cost-efficient and low-cost receivers. Therefore, large networks of GNSS stations with high positioning accuracy can now be deployed at limited cost, benefitting a variety of geoscience applications.

To take advantage of the developments in dual-frequency capabilites, GFZ and spin-off company maRam developed the tinyBlack GNSS receiver. The tinyBlack is compact, robust, versatile and low-power. It is equipped with one of various GNSS receiver boards and can be integrated with additional sensors. It provides a flexible, economical solution for geoscientific monitoring stations for, e.g., tectonic, volcanic and earth engineering monitoring. We evaluate the geodetic performance of different dual-frequency receiver boards in the tinyBlack.

We conduct a zero-baseline test, comparing three different receiver boards (Septentrio AsteRx-m3, Ublox  and SwiftNav Piksi) in a tinyBlack receiver and a separate, reference receiver (Septentrio PolaRx5). All boards have at least dual-frequency (L1/L2, E1/E5b) support and were simultaneously connected to a static geodetic choke-ring antenna. We first check data quality with GNut/Anubis, including observation availability, multipath linear combination, and signal-to-noise ratio. We then analyse PPP solutions with GFZ-provided precise orbits and satellite clock offsets, computing both daily and sub-daily kinematic coordinates. We compare observation residuals, coordinate estimates, and troposphere estimates. We find that the Ublox and Piksi receivers struggle more with multipath effects than the geodetic-grade receivers, despite using the same antenna in a good test location with a clear view of the sky. We also find that the Piksi has fewer observations, including a hard-coded low-elevation-angle cutoff. Probably as a consequence, it also the highest signal-to-noise ratio and lower residuals than the Piksi. PPP daily coordinate performance is vertically worse than, and horizontally comparable horizontally with, the cost-efficient receivers. Sub-daily coordinate performance is worst with the Piksi.

We also conduct a test step-wise moving antenna test to evaluate the capability of the Piksi receiver specifically to recover known displacement. We move the antenna by 5 cm every hour, alternatively forwards and backwards in a repeated 2-hour cycle, both horizontally (north-south) and vertically in separate tests. We compute kinematic PPP solutions with GFZ-provided precise orbits and clock offsets. We find that the average amplitude of the step can be recovered successfully and that both the standard deviation of the amplitudes and the scatter of coordinates at each point in the cycle is greater for the vertical component.

We finally perform data quality controls and show network-solution estimated coordinates of four GNSS stations in a field installations. The stations are co-located with seismometers installed in Italy as part of the DETECT (DEnse mulTi-paramEtriC observations and 4D high resoluTion imaging) project, which aims to acquire a dense multiparametric dataset imaging near-fault, active, slow tectonic deformation in a portion of the southern Apennines mountains with destructive historical seismicity.

In conclusion, we appreciate the developments spurred by the availability of dual-frequency signals and look forward to further field applications of dual-frequency receivers for geoscience research.

How to cite: D'Acquisto, M., Ramatschi, M., and Männel, B.: Cost-efficient dual-frequency GNSS receivers: quality assessment for geophysical applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7129, 2025.

EGU25-8972 | ECS | PICO | G2.5

Advancing Real-Time GNSS Applications: Performance of Galileo HAS in Precision Navigation and Low-Cost Receiver Integration 

Grzegorz Marut, Tomasz Hadas, Kamil Kazmierski, Iwona Kudłacik, and Jaroslaw Bosy

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology, thanks to its high accuracy, is appropriate for monitoring structures, natural and anthropogenic hazards, as well as navigation and positioning. The Galileo High Accuracy Service (HAS) augmentation service recently released by the European Space Agency (ESA) is a new solution that could accelerate the development of mass-market technologies using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Galileo HAS is designed to provide horizontal and vertical accuracies of 20 cm and 40 cm, respectively; it can be used in all legacy GNSS applications from structural monitoring to drone trajectory tracking using low-cost GNSS receivers.

This study evaluates the use of Galileo HAS with geodetic grade as well as low-cost receivers, analysing the results obtained in static, pseudo-kinematic, and kinematic solutions. The results indicate that Galileo HAS currently provides positioning accuracy at a to that comparable level of less than 10 cm, regardless of the use of geodetic or low-cost receivers. The results of integrating Galileo HAS with low-cost receivers show that it represents an important step in the development of available real-time positioning solutions.

In addition, the study showed that Galileo HAS meets key requirements in monitoring water vapour in the troposphere, as well as seismic displacement, by achieving real-time accuracy levels required for seismic displacement tracking and weather modelling. Comparative analyses with other GNSS correction streams show that HAS has lower accuracy in selected statistics, such as vertical accuracy. However, its near-global availability and high accuracy still make it a viable alternative.

How to cite: Marut, G., Hadas, T., Kazmierski, K., Kudłacik, I., and Bosy, J.: Advancing Real-Time GNSS Applications: Performance of Galileo HAS in Precision Navigation and Low-Cost Receiver Integration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8972, 2025.

EGU25-11204 | ECS | PICO | G2.5

Improving pedestrian navigation performance with robust methods for low-cost multi-GNSS  

Sinan Birinci, Furkan Sogukkuyu, and Mehmet Halis Saka

Low-cost GNSS technology has recently expanded as an alternative to geodetic receivers in many applications, including pedestrian navigation, autonomous vehicles, atmospheric monitoring, and precision agriculture. Considering the capabilities of the receiver in terms of power consumption, size, and cost, together with the ability to record multi-GNSS observations, the low-cost receivers and patch antennas have appealed to many users. However, there exist some challenges to be addressed. Such hardware is inherently sensitive to the multipath effect, and the noise level in the observations is relatively higher, resulting in a lower carrier-to-noise density ratio (C/N0). More outliers are encountered for kinematic applications in challenging environments such as urban areas. Therefore, both realistic stochastic modeling (e.g., C/N0-dependent) and the identification of outlier observations are crucial issues for achieving reliable positioning when low-cost GNSS hardware is used. This study aims to investigate pedestrian navigation performance using low-cost GNSS and to enhance positioning accuracy through the implementation of the improved Single Point Positioning (SPP) algorithm, thanks to the code sequence. The technique employs a powerful quality control scheme to mitigate outlier observations. The method consists of two main steps: (i) If the products or measurements used for epoch-by-epoch solutions are troublesome for certain satellites, the median absolute deviation (MAD) method is applied to eliminate these observations. (ii) The remaining observations are then reweighted using a standardized residual-based Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics (IGG) III method during the least-squares. A kinematic test experiment was conducted to validate the usefulness of the approach for which observations were collected from four satellite systems with a 2-s sampling interval of approximately 20 min using a low-cost GNSS antenna (u-blox ANN-MB-00-00) and receiver (u-blox ZED-F9P). The multi-GNSS SPP solution with code observations of GPS L1, GLONASS G1, Galileo E1, and BDS-3 B1 frequencies was performed in this dataset. A GNSS station very close to the study area was used to obtain the reference trajectory with the post-process kinematic method. Analyzing only the fixed coordinates together with the corresponding SPP solution coordinates, resulted in an RMS value of about 0.50 m achieved in the horizontal component. Results showed how the utilization of proposed techniques can enhance basic SPP solutions that yield meter-level horizontal positioning accuracy. Moreover, the suggested technique improved multi-GNSS SPP solution RMS values by 33% in the horizontal and 19% in the vertical component compared with solutions without outlier detection. A comparison was also made using the findings from two distinct software packages to verify the consistency of the outcomes. The results of the evaluation indicate that the SPP algorithm exhibits comparable performance to that of the other software and validates the effectiveness of the employed technique. Finally, the GPS/GLONASS/Galileo/BDS-3 SPP, exhibiting a 3D RMS value slightly better than 2 m for pedestrian navigation, illustrates the capabilities of low-cost GNSS technology.

How to cite: Birinci, S., Sogukkuyu, F., and Saka, M. H.: Improving pedestrian navigation performance with robust methods for low-cost multi-GNSS , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11204, 2025.

EGU25-11878 | PICO | G2.5

Monitoring of geophysical deformations on a regional scale using the low-cost GNSS collaborative network CentipedeRTK  

Pierre Bosser, Julien Ancelin, Marianne Métois, Lucie Rolland, and Maurin Vidal

Developed since 2019, the CentipedeRTK network is a permanent collaborative GNSS network whose main objective is to make RTK positioning freely available, mainly using low-cost receivers and antennas. Since its creation, the network has grown considerably, well beyond the borders of France, and now includes more than 800 base stations. The main sector using the network is agriculture, but more and more public and private organisations and individuals are also using it.  

The geoscience community quickly became interested in the network, first as users of RTK positioning (for sea level monitoring, drone surveys, etc.) and then for post-processing of the raw measurements from the base stations. Since mid-2022, the RENAG network data centre has therefore been archiving the data from the base stations on a daily basis with the aim of using them for geoscience applications. A first study based on data acquired in 2023 has demonstrated the value of these data for monitoring atmospheric water vapour over continental France. 

Here we focus on the use of data acquired by CentipedeRTK base stations located in mainland France to monitor geophysical movements on a regional scale. To this end, the daily positions of the CentipedeRTK stations estimated in PPP using GipsyX are analysed and compared with those estimated for nearby permanent stations belonging to conventional networks. There is a slight deterioration in the repeatability of the mean positions (15 to 20% depending on the component). The time series show an increase in dispersion, but a very good consistency of the variations is still observed. The discrepancies observed can be explained by the equipment of the CentipedeRTK stations, in particular their antenna, as well as by the direct environment of the stations, which is not always as optimal as that of conventional stations.  

These results will be used to develop a set of recommendations for CentipedeRTK contributors and will help to increase the value of the data collected by the network's base stations for geoscience applications. 

How to cite: Bosser, P., Ancelin, J., Métois, M., Rolland, L., and Vidal, M.: Monitoring of geophysical deformations on a regional scale using the low-cost GNSS collaborative network CentipedeRTK , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11878, 2025.

In this study, we investigate the effect of antenna setup errors upon on the accuracy of position velocities produced from GNSS campaign measurements when gaps in data. Our motivation in this study is to demonstrate the changes in station velocities in time series caused by certain antenna measurement errors, in addition to the reduced frequency of data obtained from campaign-style measurements, which are preferred due to maintenance costs, permanent stations being damaged or even lost while monitoring natural events. We used seven stations from the continuous GPS time series of JPL, NASA from a global network of the IGS. For each station, we generated 1460 data for four years synthetic GNSS campaign time serieswithout gaps and 48 data with one measurement campaign per month. Subsequently, by creating data gaps through monthly campaigns, velocity estimates were made from datasets consisting of 32, 24, 16, and 8 data respectively. The same datasets were augmented with Gaussian noise simulating ±1-3 mm of antenna setup error. Velocity estimates were also made from these augmented datasets. Rms values calculated from antenna error-free datasets ranged between 0.1~0.5 mm for North, 0.2~0.5 mm for East, and 0.5~1.3 mm for Up directions. Rms values also calculated from antenna error datasets ranged between 0.2~0.9 mm for North, 0.2~0.7 mm for East, and 0.5~1.1 mm for Up directions. All velocity estimates were subjected to student t tests. About 1% variation was found for all components, both with and without antenna setup errors. The effect of antenna setup errors on data gaps in campaign-style measurements was demonstrated.

Keywords: GPS time series; GPS campaigns; Velocity estimation; Gaps in data; Antenna Setup Errors.

How to cite: Tuna, M. and Turen, Y.: The Effects of Antenna Setup Errors upon velocities of GNSS campaign measurement when gaps in data., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12633, 2025.

EGU25-14897 | ECS | PICO | G2.5

Evaluation of the ionospheric corrections generated by smartphone and application to PPP-RTK 

Yan Zhang, Yang Jiang, and Yang Gao

The ionospheric delay is a major error source in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning, and its accurate estimation is essential for Precise Point Positioning Real-Time Kinematic (PPP-RTK). Traditionally, ionospheric delay estimation relies on a network of permanently deployed high-end geodetic GNSS receivers, which are costly and thus inaccessible for most consumer applications. Moreover, this approach is limited by the sparse spatial distribution and low temporal resolution of the network, leading to significant estimation errors in uncovered environments.

On the other hand, due to the global density and accessibility of low-cost GNSS receivers, such as smartphones, there is a strong demand to develop new methods for precise ionospheric delay estimation using them. Moreover, multi-frequency and multi-constellation GNSS chipsets are now embedded in smartphones including carrier phase observations essential for precise positioning. These advances support the investigation and development of new methods to enable precise real-time GNSS positioning even using smartphones. However, few studies have focused on the application and evaluation of such methods for PPP-RTK positioning.

Therefore, this study aims to develop methods to estimate ionospheric effects using low-cost GNSS receivers and demonstrate that it can provide reliable ionospheric corrections. Additionally, we evaluated ionospheric corrections using two real-time satellite orbit, clock, and code bias products, namely the satellite-based BeiDou PPP-B2b and ground-based Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). First, the ionospheric delay estimates generated by a single reference smartphone with uncombined PPP and quality control measures based on solution separation testing is evaluated using of the real-time satellite orbit, clock, and code bias products from BeiDou PPP-B2b and CNES, respectively. Next, the generated ionospheric delay from two correction models is compared to that produced by a high-end geodetic receiver. Finally, the generated ionospheric corrections are applied to single-station-based PPP-RTK to assess its positioning performance under kinematic conditions. A field test was conducted using two Google smartphones on April 7, 2024, in Calgary. We expect to achieve decimeter-level slant ionospheric corrections accuracy compared to geodetic receiver with the two correction models used. Additionally, the positioning accuracy is expected to approach that of PPP-RTK results using geodetic receivers as base stations, significantly outperforming float PPP.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Jiang, Y., and Gao, Y.: Evaluation of the ionospheric corrections generated by smartphone and application to PPP-RTK, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14897, 2025.

EGU25-19213 | PICO | G2.5

Positioning Accuracy of Low-Cost GNSS Systems: A Comparative Study with Geodetic Solutions 

Burak Akpinar, Cüneyt Aydin, Seda Özarpacı, Nedim Onur Aykut, Alpay Özdemir, Güldane Oku Topal, Özge Güneş, Fahri Karabulut, Efe Turan Ayruk, Hamza Çetinkaya, Muhammed Turğut, Binali Bilal Beytut, and Uğur Doğan

The increasing availability and affordability of low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) systems have made them a viable alternative for various geospatial applications. However, their performance and positioning accuracy require rigorous evaluation, especially when compared to geodetic-grade GNSS systems. This study investigates the accuracy of low-cost GNSS systems in positioning by comparing their results with those obtained from high-precision geodetic GNSS systems.

To evaluate the performance of low-cost GNSS systems, campaign type GNSS measurements were conducted at four points using both low-cost and geodetic GNSS systems. The collected data were processed using the Canadian Spatial Reference System Precise Point Positioning (CSRS-PPP) and the AUSPOS relative positioning services. The positioning results from these services were analyzed to assess the performance of low-cost GNSS systems relative to their geodetic counterparts. Preliminary findings indicate that low-cost GNSS systems exhibit promising accuracy levels in comparison to geodetic systems. The results highlight the potential and limitations of low-cost GNSS technology for scientific and practical applications.

This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on low-cost GNSS technologies and provides insights into their applicability in fields such as tectonic monitoring and geodetic research. Future work will focus on refining processing techniques to further enhance the reliability of low-cost GNSS systems.

How to cite: Akpinar, B., Aydin, C., Özarpacı, S., Aykut, N. O., Özdemir, A., Oku Topal, G., Güneş, Ö., Karabulut, F., Ayruk, E. T., Çetinkaya, H., Turğut, M., Beytut, B. B., and Doğan, U.: Positioning Accuracy of Low-Cost GNSS Systems: A Comparative Study with Geodetic Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19213, 2025.

EGU25-19702 | PICO | G2.5

Precise Estimation of Snow Water Equivalent based on GPS and Galileo Measurements 

Patrick Henkel, Markus Lamm, and Franziska Koch

A precise information on Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and Liquid Water Content (LWC) is essential for various applications, e.g. for optimized operations of hydropower plants, for improved flood forecast, and for cryosphere research.
Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers and antennas can be used to measure the snow water equivalent, snow height and liquid water content. The GNSS receivers are much more cost-effective and easy to install than other sensors such as snow scales and pillows. Our set-up consists of two GNSS receivers/ antennas, whereas one GNSS antenna is placed on the ground (i.e. below) the snow and serves as actual sensor.
The other GNSS antenna is placed on a pole above the snow and serves as reference antenna. We use the pseudorange, carrier phase and carrier to noise power ratio observables from both GPS and Galileo. The pseudorange and carrier phase measurements of both GNSS antennas are combined in double difference measurements to eliminate orbital errors, clock errors and atmospheric delays.
The snow has three effects on the GNSS signals: The first one is a time delay caused by the reduced speed of signal propagation in snow. The second effect is the refraction at the air-snow interface according to Snell's law. The third effect is the signal attenuation which is mainly driven by the LWC.
These three effects of the snow affect only the lower GNSS antenna, i.e. the double differencing does not eliminate the effects of the snow. It only eliminates the atmospheric delays being common to both GNSS antennas.
The presentation covers a precise modeling of GNSS carrier phase and pseudorange measurements, and a mathematical description of the SWE and LWC estimation from the GNSS carrier phase, pseudorange and carrier to noise power ratio measurements. We investigate different parameterizations and evaluate their impact on the SWE solution. We show the measurement results for a snow monitoring station of ANavS at an Alpine test-site for the complete previous winter period 2023/ 2024.

How to cite: Henkel, P., Lamm, M., and Koch, F.: Precise Estimation of Snow Water Equivalent based on GPS and Galileo Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19702, 2025.

EGU25-3945 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.6

Transforming coastal GNSS stations into tsunami gauges with GNSS-IR 

Haishan Chai, Kejie Chen, and Jian Lin

Although Global Navigation Satellite System Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) has been extensively utilized for monitoring water levels in various bodies of water such as lakes, rivers, tides, and storm surges, its capability in detecting high-dynamic phenomena like tsunamis is still largely unexplored. This research introduces a near-real-time GNSS-IR tsunami monitoring framework, which concurrently inverses sea level, vertical sea-level velocity, and acceleration with the employment of an adaptive window strategy. Through this framework, we observed the tsunami wave of 2020 Tonga tsunami based on GNSS observations alone, with correlation of 62.9% compared with tide gauge, showing that GNSS-IR can detect tsunami waves with an amplitude of ~0.5 meters and a period of ~40 minutes. Additionally, it is discovered that the observation conditions necessary for tsunami monitoring are more stringent compared to those for tidal measurements, with a minimum requirement of six available satellite arcs (half rising and half setting) within a one-hour window. Consequently, out of 84 GNSS sites evaluated along the Pacific Rim, 29 are identified as being capable of conducting effective tsunami monitoring, whereas the remaining sites are only suitable for observing tides and storm surges.

How to cite: Chai, H., Chen, K., and Lin, J.: Transforming coastal GNSS stations into tsunami gauges with GNSS-IR, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3945, 2025.

EGU25-6360 | Posters on site | G2.6

GNSS-IR near real-time sea level retrieval from multi-constellation shared-frequency signals 

Angel Martin-Furones and Shengnan Liu

Sea level monitoring is of great significance for studying global climate change, disaster monitoring, and water resource management. GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) technology is considered an effective complement to traditional sea level monitoring methods and has gained significant attention in recent years. However, in the two main GNSS-IR methods for sea level retrieval (spectral analysis and inverse modeling), real-time performance is limited because each low-elevation angle trajectory corresponds to a single retrieval value, and post-processing is required to eliminate outliers. In this study, we propose a near-real-time sea-level retrieval method based on shared-frequency signals. A sliding time window was used, and different strategies were employed to combine dSNRs from various satellites within the time window using both spectral analysis and inverse modeling processing methods to accurately extract the reflector height, which was further converted into sea level. Through experiments conducted at two PBO stations, we verified that near-real-time spectral analysis and inverse modeling methods can stably output sea-level retrievals within 20/30-minute time windows. Subsequently, a comparison with the traditional method revealed that the near-real-time approach enables sea-level monitoring with higher accuracy and much more uniform time resolution. This study shows that GNSS-IR technology can achieve near real-time, high-precision sea-level monitoring in multi-system scenarios and further promotes its application in sea-level monitoring.

How to cite: Martin-Furones, A. and Liu, S.: GNSS-IR near real-time sea level retrieval from multi-constellation shared-frequency signals, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6360, 2025.

EGU25-8297 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.6 | Highlight

MAGIC-CH: Machine Learning-based Advancement and Usability Assessment of GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry for Climatological Studies in Switzerland 

Laura Crocetti and Matthias Aichinger-Rosenberger

The MAGIC-CH project aims to advance the application of environmental products for climatological monitoring derived from observations of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Interferometric Reflectometry (IR). The project explores the potential of the existing Swiss GNSS infrastructure for monitoring essential climate variables, including snow, soil moisture, and atmospheric water vapor.

In this contribution, we aim to apply machine learning techniques to directly retrieve soil moisture and snow heights from GNSS-IR observables. Time series of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) from ground-reflected GNSS signals are utilized as features, while satellite-based soil moisture data and in-situ snow height observations serve as target variables. Additionally, azimuth and elevation angle, day of the year, and a digital elevation model are used as inputs in the machine learning framework.

Preliminary results for soil moisture retrieval are based on the XGBoost algorithm, using GNSS data from the Automated GNSS Network for Switzerland (AGNES) and the 1 km surface soil moisture product provided by the Copernicus Global Land Monitoring Service. For snow height, initial results are based on an artificial neural network, GNSS-IR measurements of the Plate Boundary Observatory, and snow height observations of SNOTEL sites. The performance of these machine learning models shows promising improvements, significantly reducing standard error measures compared to traditional retrieval methods.

How to cite: Crocetti, L. and Aichinger-Rosenberger, M.: MAGIC-CH: Machine Learning-based Advancement and Usability Assessment of GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry for Climatological Studies in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8297, 2025.

EGU25-8758 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.6

Continuous coastal sea level measurement in the global geodetic coordinate frame: A realization with GNSS 

Feng Peng, Rüdiger Haas, and Gunnar Elgered

Sea level is a critical environmental parameter with significant implications for both daily life and global environmental processes. Traditionally, coastal sea levels have been measured using tide gauges. However, tide gauge measurements are affected by the vertical land motion and some sites lack a consistent reference datum on a global scale. GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) offers a promising alternative for continuous coastal sea level monitoring within a geodetic reference frame, supporting sea level studies on a global scale. Despite its potential, GNSS-IR is hindered by various error sources that can degrade and bias sea level measurements. Achieving both precise positioning and accurate sea level monitoring simultaneously remains a significant challenge. To enhance the accuracy of GNSS-IR sea level measurements and align the results within a geodetic reference frame, we developed a dual-antenna GNSS reflectometry and positioning system. The system features a zenith-pointing GNSS antenna optimized for positioning and a horizon-pointing antenna designed for sea level monitoring. These two antennas are tightly connected, with precise measurements of the vertical distance between them. Advanced GNSS-IR error models, including antenna phase center corrections, are incorporated to mitigate errors in the sea level retrievals. The performance of this system was evaluated using nearby geodetic GNSS installations, traditional tide gauge measurements, and leveling surveys. Initial results demonstrate that the zenith-pointing antenna achieves sub-centimeter level positioning precision, comparable to nearby GNSS reference stations. The horizon-pointing antenna provides sea level measurements with an 1σ error of approximately 2 cm on a temporal resolution of 15 min. Notably, the zenith-pointing antenna performs significantly worse for sea level retrieval, while the horizon-pointing antenna is less accurate for precise positioning. These findings highlight the necessity of a dual-antenna system for achieving optimal performance in both positioning and sea level retrieval. The developed system enables continuous coastal sea level monitoring within the GNSS reference frame with centimeter-level accuracy, offering a valuable dataset contributing to global sea level studies.

How to cite: Peng, F., Haas, R., and Elgered, G.: Continuous coastal sea level measurement in the global geodetic coordinate frame: A realization with GNSS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8758, 2025.

EGU25-16400 | Posters on site | G2.6

Sea Level estimations based on GNSS-IR with two antennas 

Nazi Wang, Fan Gao, Tianhe Xu, Xinyue Meng, Yunqiao He, and Meijun Wang

Sea level estimations have an important influence on climate research, marine transportation, production and life of coastal people and so on. Global Navigation Satellite System Interferometry Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) has been verified as a promising alternative of remote sensing technique for coastal sea level monitoring. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data received by one off-shelf antenna and a classic GNSS geodetic receiver, which contain the multipath information of the station environment, were usually used for sea level retrieval. However, due to its use of only observations at low satellite elevation angles, this GNSS-IR technique is limited by its low sampling rate, for which only one sea level retrieval can be obtained for each independent satellite ascending or descending arc. In this study, we proposed to use an improved GNSS-IR setup with two antennae to improve the sampling rate by realizing sea level estimation from both high- and low- elevation angle observation. Compared to the traditional GNSS station with one upward right-hand circular polarized (RHCP) antenna and one geodetic receiver, this new setup added one downward left-hand circular polarized (LHCP) antenna and one combiner.  Observations of the two antennae combined by the combiner were input to the geodetic receiver to output RINEX files. SNR data from the RINEX files were then used to estimate sea level. One-month coastal experiment using the new setup was performed from January 4, 2023, to February 5, 2023, in Weihai, China. By comparing with co-located tide gauge data, sea level estimations with RMSE of 7 cm and correlation coefficient of 0.99 were obtained from the experimental data obtained by using the proposed setup. Moreover, the results showed that, by using the proposed GNSS-IR setup, the sampling rate of sea level estimations was improved about 3 times comparing to the results of conventional setup with one antenna. Because of the cheap price of LHCP antenna and combiner, the proposed GNSS-MR setup can improve its sampling rate of retrievals while maintaining its low-cost advantage. This new setup could be applied to other GNSS-IR sites and is therefore beneficial for global sea level monitoring.

How to cite: Wang, N., Gao, F., Xu, T., Meng, X., He, Y., and Wang, M.: Sea Level estimations based on GNSS-IR with two antennas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16400, 2025.

EGU25-17647 | ECS | Posters on site | G2.6

Performance of Raspberry Pi Reflectors and multiple in-situ sensors for surface water monitoring and sentinel-3 validation over two years 

Makan Karegar, Jiaming Chen, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Jürgen Kusche

As part of the Collaborative Research Center (SFB 1502) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG), a project is being carried out to analyze surface water levels and discharge using data from the latest generation of satellite altimetry. Within this project, a network of eight Raspberry Pi Reflectors (RPR) (Karegar et al. 2022, WRR) was strategically installed in the middle Rhine valley and upper Rhine along a stretch of about 110 km during the spring and summer of 2023. While the primary goal of this deployment was to validate SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) surface water level observations, four RPRs were also placed under Sentinel-3 tracks A156 and B156. Sentinel-3 L1A data were acquired and processed using the Fully Focused SAR (FFSAR) processor and automatic off-nadir processing method (Chen et al. 2025, J. Hydrology). At Worms, multiple in-situ sensors are being used. The river gauge maintained by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) records water levels at 15-minute intervals. It is a classic float and stilling well gauge located on the riverbank and connected to the water via an underground pipe. A commercial radar sensor from Vortex-io was mounted on a bridge overlooking the river. Also, an RPR was installed in Worms to evaluate its performance. Having these three sensors based on different techniques allows us assess their consistency together with Sentinel-3 observations. This presentation particularly reports on the RPR’s behavior and long-term performance in off-grid regions where there is no grid coverage or local power supply. We will also discuss their application in validating Sentinel-3 data, especially in the steep and narrow Middle Rhine Valley where the surrounding terrain significantly influences the accuracy of both GNSS-IR and Sentinel-3 measurements.

How to cite: Karegar, M., Chen, J., Fenoglio-Marc, L., and Kusche, J.: Performance of Raspberry Pi Reflectors and multiple in-situ sensors for surface water monitoring and sentinel-3 validation over two years, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17647, 2025.

EGU25-19433 | Posters on site | G2.6

Extended Kalman filtering for high-rate GNSS-R sea level measurements : Achieving centimeter-level precision during Hurricane Milton at Cedar Key 

Aurélien Pira, Alvaro Santamaría-Gómez, and Guy Wöppelmann

Sea level monitoring is vital for applications such as urban planning and climate studies. Traditional tide gauges, which often use radar measurements, remain the most common method but require placing sensors near the water surface, exposing them to potential damage in hostile maritime environments.

The demand for precise and high-frequency sea level monitoring has led to the development of innovative techniques, including Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R). This promising method enables continuous, global sea level measurements (e.g., Larson et al., 2013) without the limitations of traditional sensors such as underwater (pressure gauges), in contact (float gauges), or above-surface (acoustic and radar). Furthermore, it takes advantage of the high availability of existing GNSS installations around the globe, potentially expanding the scope of tide gauge measurements on a global scale.

GNSS-R measurement methods are typically based on the analyze of the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and most of the applied methods are using spectral analysis, such as Lomb-Scargle periodograms, to achieve centimeter-level accuracy in average sea level estimation (Larson, Ray and Williams, 2017). However, these methods require long SNR time series, limiting their ability to capture high-frequency sea level variations. This as the effect to restricted spectral methods to observing slow sea level variations, such as tides. Recent advancements have demonstrated that Kalman filtering can achieve sub-5 cm accuracy while increasing data sampling rates (e.g., Santamaría-Gómez and Watson, 2017; Strandberg, Hobiger and Haas, 2019; Liu et al., 2023).

We present a novel approach to enhance the accuracy and temporal resolution of sea level observations from SNR analysis, using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate SNR oscillation frequency and amplitude. The main advantage it to abble to ofer a flexibility to select the sampling rate of the resulting time series, allowing sea level estimates at rates up to the original SNR measurement frequency.

Our approach integrates data from all available GNSS constellations and carriers, improving data redundancy and robustness, particularly during signal loss or satellite transitions. Additionally, we apply a correction for phase center offset (PCO) variations, specific to each carrier and antenna model. This ensures that the resulting water height time series is referenced to a precise physical point, the Antenna Reference Point (ARP).

We validated our method by reconstructing a year-long sea level time series at Brest, France, with a 10-second sampling interval. We finally achieved a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 2.6 cm compared to the data of a co-located radar tide gauge. Similar performance was observed at other sites, with sampling rates as high as 1 second. Furthermore, the algorithm's ability to track irregular and unpredictable sea level variations beyond tidal models was evaluated during 10 days of observation at Cedar Key (Florida, USA) during Hurricane Milton. The resulting water height time series showed an RMSE of 1.9 cm compared to the data of a co-located tide gauge, demonstrating the method's efficiency under complex hydrodynamic conditions.

How to cite: Pira, A., Santamaría-Gómez, A., and Wöppelmann, G.: Extended Kalman filtering for high-rate GNSS-R sea level measurements : Achieving centimeter-level precision during Hurricane Milton at Cedar Key, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19433, 2025.

G3 – Geodynamics and Earth Fluids

The Great Artesian Basin (GAB), one of the world’s largest groundwater reservoirs, is facing increasing pressures due to climate variability and change. Accurate projections of water resource availability and drought risk in the GAB region require advanced modeling techniques that integrate both observed and simulated hydrological data. This study emphasizes the contribution of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data in enhancing climate models and improving projections of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) for drought assessments.

GRACE provides independent measurements of TWS, capturing both surface and subsurface water components, such as soil moisture and groundwater. This unique capability makes GRACE an invaluable tool in calibrating and validating hydrological models, particularly for deep water storage, which is crucial for understanding long-term drought impacts. GRACE data is used to refine climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles, focusing on their predictive capability for groundwater and deep soil moisture under varying climate scenarios.

By integrating GRACE-derived TWS data with CMIP model outputs, the models are calibrated using a multi-model weighting method that accounts for both the skill (based on RMSE) and independence (based on pairwise distance) of each model. This process improves the reliability of future TWS projections, specifically for drought forecasting and water resource management in semi-arid regions like the GAB.

This study demonstrates how GRACE data significantly enhances the accuracy of hydrological modeling and climate projections for water resources, especially in the context of climate change. The findings highlight the value of integrating satellite observations with climate models to improve drought projections and build resilience in the GAB and similar regions globally.

How to cite: Razeghi, M.: Enhancing Drought Projections and Water Resource Management in the Great Artesian Basin Using GRACE-Based TWS Data and Climate Model Integration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-517, 2025.

EGU25-816 | ECS | Orals | G3.1

Global Assessment of Drought Recovery Time from Gridded Precipitation Datasets and GRACE/GRACE-FO Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies 

Çağatay Çakan, M. Tuğrul Yılmaz, Henryk Dobslaw, E. Sinem Ince, Fatih Evrendilek, Christoph Förste, and Ali L. Yağcı

This study independently evaluated hydrological drought recovery time (DRT) using terrestrial water storage (TWS) and precipitation datasets. TWS data were sourced from the Global Gravity-based Ground Product (G3P) spherical harmonic solution and JPL mascon solution (RL06), the products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (GRACE-FO). Precipitation data were obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) Full Data Monthly Product (version 2022) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis Product (version 3.2). GPCC provides a station-based dataset, while GPCP integrates station and satellite observations. Hydrological drought characteristics were assessed across Köppen-Geiger climate zones by using the two methods of storage deficit (SD) and required precipitation amount (RPA). The SD method estimated DRT using TWS anomalies (TWSA), while the RPA method incorporated TWSA and precipitation anomalies, leveraging their linear relationship. Results showed similar mean DRT estimates from GPCC and GPCP (~13 months), with 86.0% consistency. In contrast, mean DRT estimates from G3P were approximately three months shorter than those from JPL mascon. G3P exhibited 5.0% higher consistency in DRT estimates than JPL mascon. Among climate zones the equatorial zone demonstrated the shortest DRT (~10 months) and the highest consistency (~98%), while the polar zone had the longest DRT (~16 months) and the lowest consistency (~75%). Overall, strong agreement was found between GPCC and GPCP in mean DRT estimates and consistency. Furthermore, G3P demonstrated slightly better alignment with the precipitation products than JPL mascon. This study analyzes hydrological drought characteristics, offering valuable insights into meteorological and hydrological processes while evaluating the performance of precipitation and TWS products.

How to cite: Çakan, Ç., Yılmaz, M. T., Dobslaw, H., Ince, E. S., Evrendilek, F., Förste, C., and Yağcı, A. L.: Global Assessment of Drought Recovery Time from Gridded Precipitation Datasets and GRACE/GRACE-FO Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-816, 2025.

EGU25-2000 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

On the quality of drought characteristics by GPS and GRACE signal errors 

Artur Lenczuk, Christopher Ndehedehe, Anna Klos, and Janusz Bogusz

In recent years, drought events have become more frequent and severe, affecting human life, the environment, and industry. As a result, monitoring drought characteristics such as patterns, occurrences, intensity, categories, and duration presents a crucial challenge for scientists. These characteristics are usually estimated using hydrological or climate models, which, however, frequently fail to capture actual changes. Consequently, droughts are under-, overestimated or not captured. As remote sensing advances, a near real-time drought assessment would be successfully enabled using data provided by geodetic techniques such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). However, the limitations in GRACE and GPS techniques, data products or their quality, such as the spatial resolution, leakage effect, background models used for GRACE observations processing or systematic errors of GPS technique may face limitations in accurately capturing essential information on drought characteristics. In our study, we assess the impact of errors embedded in GRACE and GPS data on determined droughts. We calculate uncertainties of the Drought Severity Index (DSI) determined from GRACE-derived and GPS-observed vertical displacements. We investigate a number of ways to designate errors, starting with spherical harmonic coefficients errors, TWS errors associated to gridded GRACE mascons, errors in the positions of permanent GPS stations, by GRACE TWS variance-covariance matrices to errors in combining field using the Three-Corner-Hat (TCH) method. We find that maximum error values occur in nearly 30% of drought periods, showing that they are over- or underestimated by geodetic data. For the variance-covariance method, uncertainty of DSI determined from GRACE are identical for the entire European region. On the other hand, we observe that uncertainty of DSI determined from GRACE for both SH errors and mascon TWS errors are coherent in time. Values of GPS-DSI uncertainty are mostly close to zero, although we also identify significant peaks in series over drought and flood periods as sensed by GRACE-DSI. The results obtained for several different methods of error assessment are the next step in examining the reliability of drought characteristics, which can be valuable for decision makers.

How to cite: Lenczuk, A., Ndehedehe, C., Klos, A., and Bogusz, J.: On the quality of drought characteristics by GPS and GRACE signal errors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2000, 2025.

EGU25-3767 | ECS | Orals | G3.1

Climate-induced variations in water resources observed on a regional scale – a case study of Poland 

Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Tatiana Solovey, Rafał Janica, and Agnieszka Brzezińska

Currently observed climate changes have contributed to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the globe. On one hand, many regions experience frequent and prolonged droughts; on the other, numerous areas face intense heavy rainfall, which often leads to flooding. A particularly alarming challenge for water resources arises when these phenomena occur alternately in the same region. Dry soil, especially when heavily cracked, loses its ability to absorb water efficiently. As a result, intense rainfall tends to generate surface runoff rather than replenishing the soil’s water reserves. This runoff often leads to soil erosion, decreased water retention, and an increased risk of flooding. Such conditions exacerbate water scarcity for ecosystems and human populations, posing significant risks to agriculture and other sectors reliant on stable water supplies. The long-term disruptions to hydrological cycles driven by these alternating extremes represent some of the most critical consequences of climate change.

One example of a region that has experienced both severe droughts and floods in recent years is Poland. In 2024, for instance, the country faced agricultural drought conditions for much of the spring and summer, while intense rainfall in September led to sudden river surges and flooding.

This study focuses on analysing changes in water resources in Poland, which are clearly influenced by climate change. For the study area, we analyse terrestrial water storage (TWS) based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, as well as model data. Additionally, we examine changes in groundwater storage (GWS), which play a crucial role in providing drinking water to the region. To achieve this, we use data from measurement points within the national groundwater monitoring network, in addition to satellite data. We then identify extreme changes in TWS and GWS and look for links between these phenomena and the patterns of precipitation and evapotranspiration recorded in the region. For this purpose, we use well-established climate indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).

Both the satellite-based and in-situ methods revealed long-term declining trends in GWS and TWS across the country. These trends have been strongly influenced by climate change, leading to an intensification of evapotranspiration that surpasses total precipitation, rather than a decrease in precipitation itself.

The study was conducted as part of the project GRANDE-U “Groundwater Resilience Assessment through iNtegrated Data Exploration for Ukraine” (NSF Awards No. 2409395 and 2409396).

How to cite: Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Solovey, T., Janica, R., and Brzezińska, A.: Climate-induced variations in water resources observed on a regional scale – a case study of Poland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3767, 2025.

EGU25-3951 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

The glacier changes in the Alps from the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Missions 

Shuxian Liu and Roland Pail

In this work, the time-variable gravity field data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) covering the period from April 2002 to September 2023 is used to quantify glacier mass changes in the Alps. We employ a new method that utilizes the vertical surface displacement data to correct the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and tectonic uplift signal. This approach reveals that the mass increases caused by vertical deformation signals with a trend of 0.75 ± 0.11 Gt/yr. We further include two hydrology models Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and WaterGAP Global Hydrological Model (WGHM) to correct for hydrological signals in the Alps. Three forward modeling-derived schemes are used to recover the signals from GRACE/GRACE-FO observations. Our results, when compared with the annual glacier mass balance from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), indicate that among the three experiment schemes, the global unconstrained forward modeling algorithm demonstrates the best performance in estimating glacier mass change in the Alps. Overall, applying our new vertical deformation correction method, we find that the total glacier mass loss rate in the Alps is -2.54 ± 0.82 Gt/yr using GRACE Level-2 data and -3.42 ± 0.56 Gt/yr using the JPL Mass Concentration (Mascon) solutions. Additionally, our study identifies a three-month lag between land surface temperature and glacier mass variations, which supports the validity of our estimated glacier mass changes.

How to cite: Liu, S. and Pail, R.: The glacier changes in the Alps from the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Missions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3951, 2025.

EGU25-4054 | Posters on site | G3.1

Preliminary concept for observing the Vernagtferner Glacier with an optimized geodetic sensor network 

Katharina Lechner and Roland Pail

Glaciers are a dynamic part of the Earth's system. They are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, making them a dynamic and rapidly transforming element of the Earth system. The consequences of these changes extend far beyond the polar and alpine regions, affecting ecosystems and water resources globally. Glaciers are important for water management, acting as natural reservoirs and providing millions of people with fresh water. However, their retreat can disrupt water supplies, increase flood risks, and lead to hazards such as rock moraine instability. These challenges underscore the importance of understanding this part of the ecosystem. Monitoring and measuring glacial environments are essential not only for mitigating risks but also for advancing scientific knowledge. By studying the dynamics of glaciers, scientists can better understand their interactions with the Earth's climate system and predict future changes. Such insights are critical for developing sustainable resource management strategies and enhancing societal resilience.

The Vernagtferner Glacier has been a research area for geodetic sensors for over 150 years, beginning with Sebastian Finsterwalder's photogrammetric observations in the 19th century. Since then, the Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities has expanded this database by installing sensors and level bars on and around the glacier. The current challenge lies in leveraging observational data to develop a glacier model capable of assimilating geodetic observations. This research aims to design an optimized geodetic sensor network that enhances the integration of field observations into glacier modeling. Sensitivity studies evaluate the model’s response to various data inputs, identify observation errors, and refine the network design. Starting with the existing sensor infrastructure, the study explores innovative measurement strategies, including low-cost sensors, to increase spatial and temporal data coverage.

At this stage, a preliminary concept for the sensor network is presented, offering insights into its potential to improve network accuracy and to consider future development. This work should lay the foundation for creating a comprehensive geodetic observation system contributing to glacier monitoring and modeling.

How to cite: Lechner, K. and Pail, R.: Preliminary concept for observing the Vernagtferner Glacier with an optimized geodetic sensor network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4054, 2025.

EGU25-4854 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

Global quantifying the fractions of precipitation transformed into terrestrial water storage and their changes 

Yulong Zhong, Baoming Tian, Gerui Cheng, Hyunglok Kim, Yunlong Wu, and Lizhe Wang

The pivotal role of precipitation in driving the terrestrial water cycle is well-known, but quantifying its transformation into terrestrial water storage remains challenging. This study introduces a new metric -- the average daily fraction of precipitation transformed into terrestrial water storage -- leveraging an advanced statistical reconstruction method and data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and their follow-on mission. Results show that about 64% of land precipitation contributes to terrestrial water storage across 121 global river basins from 2002 to 2021, with notable variations across climatic and geographical regions. We also analyze changes in this fraction across global mascons. Our findings shed light on the interactions between precipitation, land surface processes, and climate change, providing valuable insights for water resource management and hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Zhong, Y., Tian, B., Cheng, G., Kim, H., Wu, Y., and Wang, L.: Global quantifying the fractions of precipitation transformed into terrestrial water storage and their changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4854, 2025.

EGU25-5390 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

Deriving long-term geocenter motion estimates for geophysical applications 

Yufeng Nie, Jianli Chen, Dongju Peng, and Jin Li

The geocenter motion describes the relative motion between the Earth’s center-of-mass and center-of-figure, representing one of the largest-scale mass redistributions in the Earth system. Accurate determination of geocenter motion is essential for the realization of the terrestrial reference frames (TRF) and for the full-spectrum monitoring of global mass variations. Traditionally, geocenter motion can be estimated directly from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) by tracking orbital motion with ground stations since the 1990s or indirectly from gravity fields provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) since 2002. However, SLR-derived geocenter motion estimates are generally unsuitable for studying long-term mass changes because the secular trend is absorbed by the linear definition of the TRF. Additionally, only low-degree gravity fields were available before GRACE (e.g., from SLR), resulting in significant signal leakage errors in geocenter estimates. In this study, we derive the geocenter motion from low-degree gravity fields (up to degree and order 5) after properly addressing signal leakage effect. By combining the leakage-corrected land mass patterns with self-consistent ocean mass fingerprints, we generate geocenter motion estimates and compare them with those derived from GRACE, geophysical models, and the SLR direct tracking method. The trends in our estimates are consistent with GRACE and models, while the SLR direct estimates yield opposite trends, leading to significantly underestimated global ocean mass change rates. Our study provides promising results for deriving long-term estimates of geocenter motion, enabling the study of mass changes in the global oceans and polar ice sheets back to the 1990s.

How to cite: Nie, Y., Chen, J., Peng, D., and Li, J.: Deriving long-term geocenter motion estimates for geophysical applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5390, 2025.

In the era of global warming, accurate monitoring of terrestrial water storage across scales is essential for effective water resource management and mitigating the impacts of a changing climate. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and its successor, GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), have provided valuable insights into terrestrial water redistribution processes by monitoring Earth’s time-varying gravity. However, their coarse spatial resolution limits their utility for estimating water mass changes at local scales. While various downscaling methods integrating GRACE data with high-resolution land surface models have been proposed, the accuracy of these approaches often depends on the fidelity of the models used. This presents challenges in the regions where water redistribution is driven primarily via streamflow, flood inundation or agricultural irrigation—processes often poorly represented in many land surface models. In this study, we employ soil moisture contents retrieved from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) as a priori soil water mass to downscale GRACE-FO data. The downscaling is applied to the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, with particular focus on interior arid regions where water redistribution is dominated by streamflow and associated inundation of floodplains. The downscaled GRACE-FO data demonstrate superior performance in capturing local hydrological processes, including a major flood inundation event in late 2022, mapped using the Water Observation product (Digital Earth Australia), and regions of intensive agricultural water use identified through the CSIRO MODIS Reflectance-based Scaling EvapoTranspiration (CMRSET) product.

How to cite: Kim, J., Ryu, D., Seo, K.-W., and Fowler, K.: Downscaling GRACE-FO Data with CYGNSS Soil Moisture for Improved Representation of Floodplain Inundation: Application to the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7840, 2025.

EGU25-8074 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

 The next step in marine reference surfaces – the DTU25 mean sea surface 

Bjarke Nilsson, Ole Baltazar Andersen, and Per Knudsen

During the last 30 years, following the breakthrough that was the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter, improvements of satellite altimetry has been incremental. We have several generations of satellites to build upon, and with the inclusion of SAR processing, we are reaching the limit of conventional satellite altimetry. With the breakthough that is the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, we are able to significantly imrpove our knowledge of ocean geodesy, and provide greatly improved references for oceanography and climate research.

The importance of an accurate mean sea surface reference for global climate science, sea level rise and coastal impacts have been shown. With the inclusion of two-dimensional satellite altimetry, we go beyond the limitations obtained from nadir looking altimetry. With the 2D data, the longitudional resolution is substantially improved, and we have seen a substantial improvement in especially coastal zones, eliminating the majority of coastal contamination causing problems in current models.

With almost two years of SWOT data available, we have a near complete global coverage. Longer wavelengths are alreay well resolved with the 30 years of conventional altimetry, and utilizing the short-wavelength improvement obtained from SWOT, we can get a combined solution with the best from both sides.

We present the next generation of mean sea surface reference fields, with major improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction. The inclusion of SWOT data has shown small scale oceanographic features previously hidden, and will be of critical importance for geodesy, oceanography and climate science.

How to cite: Nilsson, B., Andersen, O. B., and Knudsen, P.:  The next step in marine reference surfaces – the DTU25 mean sea surface, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8074, 2025.

EGU25-9662 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

Geoid Height Changes over Türkiye: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Spherical Harmonics 

Ozge Gunes and Cuneyt Aydin

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-On mission (GRACE-FO) have greatly improved our ability to monitor changes in Earth's mass distribution, providing unprecedented insights into variations in total water storage (TWS). These variations can be expressed as equivalent water thickness, and they can also be derived from other geopotential variations, such as changes in geoid height, gravity anomalies, or vertical displacements. Understanding these variations is essential for comprehending regional hydrology and solid Earth dynamics.

In this study, we use DDK2-filtered solutions from GRACE and GRACE-FO spherical harmonics to compute geoid height variations over the Türkiye region, based on roughly one hundred grid points. The trend in the geoid height changes for this region is approximately at the millimeter level. We also derive TWS time series from these DDK2-filtered spherical harmonics to compare the changes in geoid height with the corresponding equivalent water thickness values, aiming to explore the functional relationship and correlation coefficients between these two geopotential variations. In addition to time-domain analysis, we apply spectral analysis to examine the power spectrum of geoid height and TWS variations in the frequency-domain. This approach helps us understand the spatial and temporal diversity of geoid height changes across Türkiye and provides insights into their underlying patterns and trends. The preliminary results of this study offer an overview of geoid height changes in Türkiye and highlight the potential of GRACE and GRACE-FO data for monitoring mass redistribution on a regional scale.

How to cite: Gunes, O. and Aydin, C.: Geoid Height Changes over Türkiye: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Spherical Harmonics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9662, 2025.

EGU25-9777 | ECS | Orals | G3.1

Satellite-based quantification of natural and human-induced water storage changes in the Murray-Darling River Basin, Australia 

Maike Schumacher, Albert. I.J.M. van Dijk, Leire Retegui-Schiettekatte, Fan Yang, and Ehsan Forootan

World-wide water resources are threatened by the impacts of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change resulting in water stress for many regions. Here, we focus on the Murray-Darling River Basin, Australia, one of the many regions that benefits from a better understanding of water resources availability and their response to climate change and water extraction from surface water and groundwater. This knowledge can help secure a sustainable water management for the future. Particularly, we introduce a novel satellite-based approach to determine the relative contributions of natural climate variability and human-induced impacts on the regional water balance.

We found that the contribution ratio of water extraction for irrigation explains 17% of the terrestrial water storage changes that are observed by the GRACE satellite mission and its Follow-On mission since 2003. Water is primarily extracted from surface water (84%) with the remainder (16%) taken from groundwater. Introducing GRACE observations into the W3RA water balance model - which does not simulate the human-induced impact on water resources - via a data assimilation approach improved the representation of water storage variability and intensified trends in drying and wetting periods. We conclude that data assimilation can fundamentally improve our understanding of water resources and how they are impacted by natural and human-induced impacts of climate change.

Our results also offer potential for technical improvements of hydrological models and for future policy implementation. The presented study contributes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular no. 13 (combat climate change and its impact) and no. 6 (availability and sustainable management of water).

How to cite: Schumacher, M., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Retegui-Schiettekatte, L., Yang, F., and Forootan, E.: Satellite-based quantification of natural and human-induced water storage changes in the Murray-Darling River Basin, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9777, 2025.

EGU25-9812 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

MILLS: MItigation Leakage through Least Square -- A new method to estimate regional mass variations from GRACE/-FO 

Louis-Marie Gauer, Kristel Chanard, Luce Fleitout, Jean-François Crétaux, Raphaël Grandin, Etienne Berthier, and Alejandro Blazquez

Variations in water mass redistribution are a critical indicator of climate change, revealing processes such as global continental desertification and cryosphere melting. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite missions have provided over 20-yrs of essential records of Earth's mass variations, significantly advancing our understanding of climate-driven processes.

However, GRACE/-FO spherical harmonic solutions suffer from aliasing errors, as well as measurement uncertainty, manifesting as North/South striping due to propagation of correction model errors and temporal averaging of the signal. While filtering is necessary to reveal meaningful geophysical signals, it introduces leakage and bias by causing signals to smear beyond their location, which impacts the accuracy of regional mass estimates. To overcome these limitations, we introduce MILLS (MItigation Leakage through Least Square), a new method for estimating regional mass variations from GRACE/-FO Level-3 solutions. MILLS leverages knowledge on solution-specific spherical harmonic filters to correct signal leakage and bias. It computes the least square affine regression between a filtered artificial uniform unit source signal over the region of interest and the similarly filtered GRACE/-FO solution for each time step. The affine models are then applied to non-filtered unit source signal, effectively mitigating leakage and bias, thus improving time-dependent regional mass estimates.

We validate MILLS over the Caspian Sea, an ideal test case due to its large size, significant mass depletion signal, and minimal contamination by external geophysical signals. Comparison of MILLS-derived mass estimate with independent estimates from altimetry and in situ tide gauges demonstrates the method's effectiveness in isolating sources and resolving the phase of the annual variations, which is usually uncertain in other methods due to the disturbance caused by regional signals. We then apply MILLS to glacial regions to evaluate its capability for monitoring glacier mass change. Although glacier regions present greater challenges than the Caspian Sea due to more complex external geophysical signals to account for, preliminary results of MILLS-derived glacier mass change show good agreement with independent estimates from optical imagery.

How to cite: Gauer, L.-M., Chanard, K., Fleitout, L., Crétaux, J.-F., Grandin, R., Berthier, E., and Blazquez, A.: MILLS: MItigation Leakage through Least Square -- A new method to estimate regional mass variations from GRACE/-FO, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9812, 2025.

EGU25-10150 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

Can we use the Issyk-Kul region as a test site for future satellite gravity missions? 

Eva Boergens, Josefine Wilms, Tilo Schöne, Laura Jensen, Julian Haas, Alexander Zubovich, and Henryk Dobslaw

The region around Lake Issyk-Kul in the Tian Shan Mountains in Kyrgyzstan is densely observed with in-situ monitoring stations and used to test and validate satellite observations. Although Lake Issyk-Kul lies at 1600 m elevation, it does not freeze over in the winter months. The hydrology of the region is dominated by the storage in several large to medium-sized endorheic lakes (e.g., lakes Issyk-Kul and Balkhash), artificial reservoirs (e.g., Kapshagay Reservoir), and the snow cover during the winter months. In addition, melting glaciers play a significant role in the region’s hydrology. In 2016, the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Germany, and Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG), Kyrgyzstan, installed two climate monitoring stations and several GNSS-controlled tide gauges for the monitoring of the environment and Issyk-Kul lake level variations. The in-situ observations and the ice-free winters make Lake Issyk-Kul an ideal test site for calibrating satellite altimetry. 

NASA and DLR plan to launch GRACE-C (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment – Continuation) in 2028 in the same orbit as GRACE. ESA plans to launch a Next Generation Gravity Mission (NGGM) in 2032, flying in an inclined and lower orbit. GRACE-C and NGGM will form the Mass-Change and Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC), which aims to increase mass transport products' spatial and temporal resolution significantly. With this study, we investigate if and how we can use the region to evaluate the MAGIC future satellite gravity mission.

In order to assess the suitability of the Issyk-Kul region as a validation site for MAGIC, we investigate the behaviour of the different hydrological storage compartments. The recently published G3P data set (Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product) compiles a harmonised set of satellite observations of root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), snow water equivalent (SWE), glacier mass change, and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Information about surface water storage (SWS) can be derived from satellite altimetry. This data set allows us to understand the hydrological drivers of TWS variability. Variations of SWS explain the strong interannual variations beyond the linear trend well. However, the different lakes of the region show quite distinct interannual variations. With the current spatial resolution of GRACE and GRACE-FO, these variations cannot be separated. However, this separation would be a prerequisite for the region as a test site for future gravity missions.

By simulating realistic MAGIC observations of the region, we can assess their spatial resolution and, thus, if the region around Lake Issyk-Kul may serve as a test site for MAGIC. First results show that with the higher spatial resolution, we can discriminate between the SWS signals of the different lakes.

How to cite: Boergens, E., Wilms, J., Schöne, T., Jensen, L., Haas, J., Zubovich, A., and Dobslaw, H.: Can we use the Issyk-Kul region as a test site for future satellite gravity missions?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10150, 2025.

EGU25-10161 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.1

GNSS-radiosonde three-year IWV comparisons in the framework of the GRUAN project 

Aurélie Panetier, Florian Zus, Galina Dick, and Jens Wickert

Established in 2006, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) is an international observing network of sites worldwide. Currently, 33 reference sites are designed to detect long-term trends of key climate variables above the Earth’s surface, such as temperature and humidity in the atmosphere. They provide high quality long-term atmospheric measurements using balloon-borne sensors, in particular radiosondes. 

Data from co-located GNSS stations are processed at the GFZ with the EPOS 8 software. This provides GNSS Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) time series co-located with the Vaisala RS41 radiosonde.

This study provides the first three-year comparison, between 2021 and 2023 between GNSS and radiosonde IWV time series at nine sites. The study focuses on small dry bias of GNSS to radiosonde comparisons obtained in previous studies. To this end, several GNSS processing options that may contribute to this bias are discussed. Several approaches to GNSS and radiosonde comparisons are presented, leading to different results in the calculated bias. Finally, the time series provided by the radiosondes are examined in detail, and the IWV is recomputed from the cleaned radiosonde measurements to correct some discrepancies found in the radiosonde-provided IWV profiles.

How to cite: Panetier, A., Zus, F., Dick, G., and Wickert, J.: GNSS-radiosonde three-year IWV comparisons in the framework of the GRUAN project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10161, 2025.

EGU25-10895 | ECS | Orals | G3.1

Modeling high-resolution land water storage with OS LISFLOOD for global Geodesy 

Laura Jensen, Robert Dill, Stefania Grimaldi, Peter Salamon, Jesús Casado Rodríguez, Juliana Disperati, Carlo Russo, and Henryk Dobslaw

Model-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) and its individual storage compartments soil moisture, groundwater, surface water, and snow are widely used in the geodetic community for, e.g., the evaluation and improvement of satellite gravimetry products, the correction of GNSS-based coordinate time-series, and simulation studies for future satellite gravity missions. We employ the open-source, high-resolution hydrological rainfall-runoff-routing model OS LISFLOOD to generate global daily water storage time series in 1/20° resolution over the time period 2000 – 2023.

The most recent OS LISFLOOD run performed at the GFZ benefits from several model improvements and adjustments to arrive at a highly realistic TWS simulation. These adjustments include an optimized soil depth definition; an improved model initialization; a modified snow routine; and the inclusion of anthropogenic water abstraction used for irrigation and industrial, domestic, energy (cooling), and livestock demands. A particular challenge in hydrological modeling is the representation of surface water variability. While the most recent version of OS LISFLOOD already explicitly simulates the dynamics of 463 lakes and 667 reservoirs, endorheic lakes (i.e. lakes without an outlet like the Caspian Sea, Lake Balkhash, or Lake Chad) have not been so far accounted for. Since 18% of the land surface drains into endorheic lakes, their consideration is a big step towards improved storage estimates. For the verification of the simulated lake levels we utilize time series from satellite altimetry, and even report on first experiments with altimetry data for the calibration of lake parameters in OS LISFLOOD.

With respect to both GRACE-based TWS estimates and GNSS station displacements, TWS from OS LISFLOOD has been shown before to be superior to results from the Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM), which has been routinely used for many years at GFZ for geodetic applications. In this contribution we further extend the quality assessment of OS LISFLOOD by utilizing additional TWS data sets from alternative hydrological models (e.g., WGHM, GLDAS, W3RA) that provides insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of those models regarding their ability to represent TWS at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

How to cite: Jensen, L., Dill, R., Grimaldi, S., Salamon, P., Casado Rodríguez, J., Disperati, J., Russo, C., and Dobslaw, H.: Modeling high-resolution land water storage with OS LISFLOOD for global Geodesy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10895, 2025.

EGU25-14233 | Orals | G3.1

Greenland mass balance derived from GNET 

Valentina R. Barletta, Andrea Bordoni, and Shfaqat Abbas Khan

In the context of global sea level rise and climate change related global scale phenomena, the Greenland mass balance (GMB) plays a crucial role. Estimates of the GMB are regularly updated, using three main methods. Those are based mainly on satellite data: 1) gravity variations, e.g. GRACE, 2) surface elevation changes, e.g. CryoSat-2, IceSat-2 and 3) the ice flow (input-output method) inferred from surface ice velocities.

Each of these three methods has strengths and weaknesses, and they rely on models and assumptions to infer the mass changes that cannot be measured directly. The agreement among the different estimates has improved in the last decade, thanks to the coordinated efforts of the scientific community, but there are still discrepancies.

We propose a fourth method, based on a simple methodology that uses the entire Greenland GNSS network (GNET) as a “virtual instrument” to monitor the present-day mass changes. This method is tested against GRACE-derived GMB, and we find a very good agreement. This leads to an independent methodology for monitoring present-day mass changes from GNSS, hopefully helping in reducing the overall uncertainties. Moreover, we show that within certain assumptions, which are verified in the actual available GNET time series, the method is robust and not particularly sensitive to small data gaps, and potentially allows tracking the GMB daily, also bridging the gap between GRACE and GRACE-FO in GMB estimates. This approach shows how a well-designed GNSS network is worth more than the sum of the stations it is made of.

 

Reference: Barletta, V. R., Bordoni, A., & Khan, S. A. (2024). GNET derived mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment constraints for Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL106891. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106891

How to cite: Barletta, V. R., Bordoni, A., and Khan, S. A.: Greenland mass balance derived from GNET, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14233, 2025.

EGU25-17055 | Orals | G3.1 | Highlight

Making GRACE and GRACE-FO more effective for climate research: reconstruction of terrestrial water storage anomalies over decades 

Mohammad J. Tourian, Peyman Saemian, Junyang Gou, Luis Gentner, James Foster, Benedikt Soja, and Nico Sneeuw

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor, the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, have enabled the monitoring of Total Water storage anomalies (TWSA) from space. However, their combined observational record spans only two decades of monthly data, with a one-year gap between the two missions. This limited record constrains their application in climate research. To address this limitation, we developed two approaches to reconstruct GRACE TWSA: one using Machine Learning (ML) methods and the other using a novel Deep Learning (DL) approach.

In the ML approach, we integrated TWSA estimates from global hydrological models, land surface models, and ERA5 reanalysis data with Ensemble GRACE TWSA, enabling the reconstruction of TWSA records extending further back in time. For this purpose, various ML algorithms were employed, including Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost).

Our DL approach combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies in the TWSA data. As model inputs, we utilize multiple meteorological, hydrological, and vegetation-related variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. We also use the Oceanic Niño Index derived from NOAA’s Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature dataset to account for ocean variability. Additionally, land cover data (rain-fed and irrigated cropland, pastures, and urban areas) together with lake area fractions from ISIMIP are incorporated to represent anthropogenic influences.

We evaluated the reconstructed data against GRACE(-FO) observations and high-resolution Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) TWSA data from the pre-GRACE period.  In this presentation, we show the validation results and compare the performance of ML- and DL-based approaches with each other and with other existing products. Our results, derived from both ML and DL methods, demonstrate improved accuracy compared to previous approaches, effectively capturing seasonality, trends, and human-induced variations. 

Our reconstructed data enhance the utility of GRACE and GRACE-FO for climate research by extending the temporal coverage of terrestrial water storage anomalies. This enables a deeper understanding of long-term hydrological trends, including the effects of climate variability and human activities on water storage.

How to cite: Tourian, M. J., Saemian, P., Gou, J., Gentner, L., Foster, J., Soja, B., and Sneeuw, N.: Making GRACE and GRACE-FO more effective for climate research: reconstruction of terrestrial water storage anomalies over decades, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17055, 2025.

EGU25-18805 | ECS | Orals | G3.1

Long-term regional stability of the orbit time series for climate-driven sea level rise applications 

Théo Gravalon, Eléonore Saquet, Alexandre Couhert, and John Moyard

To meet future climate science question needs (e.g., closure of the sea-level budget, estimating the Earth energy imbalance), sea level must be determined with an uncertainty of a few tenths of a millimeter per year for decadal trends at the regional scale (Meyssignac et al., 2023). In satellite altimetry, the radial component of the orbit is of primary interest, since the sea level measurement is related directly to this component. For this reason, various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends are discussed in this study. In particular, projections of orbit errors on the global oceans will be used to reveal significant drifts in the geographically correlated errors (GCE), that are aliased directly into any calculation of regional mean sea level (MSL) rate.

Precision Orbit Determination (POD) is achieved owing to the combination of tracking techniques such as Doppler Orbitography by Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite (DORIS), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) or Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR). Besides these measurement systems, various geophysical models are used to complement reduced dynamic orbit solutions. The idea here is to quantify the uncertainty in orbit determination when changing from one technique or geophysical model to another and assess the possibility of achieving a sub-mm/y radial orbit stability. The focus of this study is on the long-term (seasonal to decadal time scales) stability of the Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A orbit error on a regional scale (> 1,000 km) for deriving independent error budgets on two different legacy satellite altimetry orbits.

First, this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A (GPS, DORIS, SLR). As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the POD modeling, the overall accuracy of the latest Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A CNES solutions is evaluated through comparison with test orbits based on different time-variable gravity and geocenter motion models. Finally, the terrestrial reference frame accuracy (ITRF2014 versus ITRF2020) and its effect on Jason-3/Sentinel-3A orbits will be discussed.

How to cite: Gravalon, T., Saquet, E., Couhert, A., and Moyard, J.: Long-term regional stability of the orbit time series for climate-driven sea level rise applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18805, 2025.

EGU25-18851 | Posters on site | G3.1

Signatures of drought and flooding events in terrestrial water storage anomalies 

Roelof Rietbroek, Sedigheh Karimi, and Amin Shakya

Hydrological extremes such as flooding and droughts are expected to increase in both intensity and frequency, under climate change. A proper identification and quantification of extremes, both from modelling and observing efforts is crucial for informed decision making and preparedness of society. Earth observation techniques such as terrestrial water storage anomalies from satellite gravimetry have been providing crucial information but are often provided at monthly resolution, and may therefore hinder the detection and quantification of short-lived events. Fortunately, upcoming satellite gravimetry missions, such as the MAGIC mission promise higher time resolutions.

In this poster, we explore how watershed-wide water fluxes from ERA5 and river discharge (from GLOFAS, GEOGLOWS) during extreme events accumulate as terrestrial water storage anomalies at different time scales. We then compare the accumulated terrestrial water storages and review how the signals are attenuated in monthly satellite derived TWS. Furthermore, we’ll show a comparison directly in terms of fluxes as derived from numerically differentiating TWS anomalies and evaluate the effect of the differentiating schemes.

How to cite: Rietbroek, R., Karimi, S., and Shakya, A.: Signatures of drought and flooding events in terrestrial water storage anomalies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18851, 2025.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is a vital measure for understanding the hydrology and climate of snow-covered regions, particularly in Siberia. Siberian river basins play an important role in managing freshwater fluxes to the Arctic Ocean, which influences global climate systems and regional hydrological extremes. However, accurate SWE prediction in Siberia is hindered by sparse observational networks, limitations in standard hydrological models, and errors in remote sensing data. To overcome these issues, this study proposes a novel two-part model that incorporates GRACE satellite observations and meteorological data to estimate SWE. The study concentrates on the Siberian river basins of the Yenisei, Ob, Kolyma, Amur, and Lena. The model's first component employs GRACE mascon data to calculate snow mass changes, providing an independent, observation-based method. The second component estimates snow mass based on precipitation and temperature datasets. A Kalman filter structure then incorporates these two data sources, further improving temporal resolution and mitigating uncertainty. Validation against numerous datasets, including in-situ data and hydrological models (GLDAS NOAH, VIC, WGHM, and CLSM), as well as GlobSnow, validates the proposed methodology's resilience. The study used 382 in-situ stations throughout the Siberian region. The results demonstrate significant agreement with all models; NSE values for all models exceed 0.78, with the exception of the VIC model, which has a higher amplitude than the other models. The in-situ data mean for the DJF and MAM seasons is highly consistent with the hybrid new model, with positive values in Kolyma. The total trend in the Yenisei basin is - 0.46±0.35 mm/year and - 0.40±0.31 mm/year for the in-situ and hybrid models, respectively. The Amor basin has the least amount of SWE compared to the other basins because its average temperature is greater. This hybrid technique improves SWE estimation while also providing insights into the region's hydrological dynamics and climatic feedbacks.

Keywords: GRACE, Snow, Hydrology, Climate change, Hydrological models, In-situ. 

How to cite: Mohasseb, H. A. and Yi, S.: Hybrid Approach for Estimating Snow Water Equivalent in Siberian Basins Using GRACE and Climate Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20460, 2025.

EGU25-1876 | ECS | Orals | G3.2 | Highlight

The role of climate change on Earth’s polar motion and the length of day   

Mostafa Kiani Shahvandi, Surendra Adhikari, Mathieu Dumberry, Siddhartha Mishra, and Benedikt Soja

Modern climate change has triggered large-scale lateral mass transport between land and the oceans. Indeed, satellite observations suggest unprecedented melting of global glaciers and polar ice sheets, large spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial water storage, sustained dwindling of groundwater resources, and rising global and regional sea levels. We have investigated the impact of this climate-driven surface mass redistribution on the planetary-scale phenomenon of Earth’s rotation and reported the key findings in three papers published recently in Nature Geoscience (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01478-2), PNAS (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2406930121), and Geophysical Research Letters (https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111148). This presentation will showcase these new results, discuss their implications, and underscore the need for continued geodetic observations to advance climate research.

The first part of this presentation is focused on the polar motion—the motion of the Earth’s spin axis relative to the crust—and provides a first cohesive interpretation of the 120-year-long data. Our analysis unravels the critical roles of climatological processes, particularly in modulating the polar motion on interannual to multidecadal timescales. We disentangle polar motion signals to uniquely constrain global-scale hydrological models. We also tease out a systematic anticorrelation between the climatological and core processes, hinting at the two-way coupling between Earth’s surficial and deep-interior processes—an intriguing multidisciplinary topic for further exploration.

Next, we will examine more than 40 years of Earth’s oblateness (J2) data and nearly 3000 years of eclipse data to evaluate the impact of climate change on length of day (LOD) variations. We show that the rate of LOD change in the past two decades (+1.3 milliseconds/century) is the greatest since the onset of modern climate change. Under high-end emission scenarios, this rate could double and surpass the tidal friction contribution (+2.4 milliseconds/century), highlighting the planetary-scale impact of modern climate change. We also derive an independent estimate of the glacial isostatic adjustment signal, which, when added to the tidal friction signal, fully reconciles the secular LOD trend derived from the ancient eclipse data, diminishing the possible contribution of core processes on secular timescales. We show, on the other hand, that in the preindustrial era the role of climatic oscillations was subdominant. In fact, by using archaeomagnetic and more modern geomagnetic data and using the simple principles of magnetohydrodynamics, we demonstrate that fluid motion in the Earth's core explains the decadal and millennial fluctuations observed in LOD record. Our results present a consistent explanation for the long-period polar motion and LOD and have considerable implications for internal and external geodynamics.

How to cite: Kiani Shahvandi, M., Adhikari, S., Dumberry, M., Mishra, S., and Soja, B.: The role of climate change on Earth’s polar motion and the length of day  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1876, 2025.

EGU25-3427 | Orals | G3.2

Benefits of Refined 10-Day Effective Angular Momentum Forecasts for Earth Rotation Parameter Prediction 

Robert Dill, Lone Stumpe, Henryk Dobslaw, and Jan Saynisch-Wagner

Effective angular momentum forecasts are widely used as an important input to provide short-term polar motion and UT1-UTC predictions. So far, the Earth system modelling group at GFZ provides effective angular momentum forecasts based on model prediction runs of the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere that reach only 6-days into the future. The oceanic and land-surface model forecasts are forced with operational 6-day high-resolution deterministic numerical weather predictions provided by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Those atmospheric forecasts extend also further into the future but have a reduced sampling rate of only 6 hours and their prediction skill decreases rapidly after roughly one week. Here, we present a test set of 454 10-day EAM forecasts that we used within GFZ's EAM Predictor method to calculate Earth rotation predictions. Compared to the 6-day forecasts, the introduction of the 10-day forecasts leads to slight improvements in y-pole and UT1-UTC predictions for 10 to 30 days ahead. Introducing in addition neural network models trained on the errors of the effective angular momentum forecasts when compared to their subsequently available analysis runs, the benefit of extended EAM forecasts for Earth rotation prediction can be enhanced. A reduction of the mean absolute errors for polar motion and length-of-day prediction at a forecast horizon of 10 days of 26.8% in x-pole, 15.5% in y-pole,27.6% in UT1-UTC, and 47.1% in ΔLOD was achieved. This promising test application of extended effective angular momentum forecasts based on geophysical models persuaded GFZ to publish 10-day instead of 6-day forecasts since October 2024.

How to cite: Dill, R., Stumpe, L., Dobslaw, H., and Saynisch-Wagner, J.: Benefits of Refined 10-Day Effective Angular Momentum Forecasts for Earth Rotation Parameter Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3427, 2025.

EGU25-4347 | ECS | Orals | G3.2 | Highlight

Regional Impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Hydrological Earth Rotation Excitation: A Cross-Correlation Approach 

Lone Stumpe, Robert Dill, and Henryk Dobslaw

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the most prominent inter-annual climate mode on Earth, characterized by quasi-periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific. Its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases drive large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, causing climate anomalies across all seasons. While ENSO primarily originates in the Pacific, its teleconnections extend globally, influencing the terrestrial water cycle worldwide. A growing body of research highlights significant linkages between ENSO and terrestrial water storage (TWS) in various regions, shedding light on its hydrological impacts. Given these connections, ENSO signals are expected to influence hydrological excitation functions of Earth rotation variations derived from terrestrial water mass distributions. On a wide range of time-scales, variations in Earth's rotation are caused by angular momentum exchanges of surface geophysical fluids with the solid Earth.

We investigate the influence of ENSO signals on the hydrological angular momentum using a two-step time domain cross-correlation approach. Lagged cross-correlation and regression analysis were performed between the MEI.v2 climate index and TWS anomalies using three datasets: GRACE/-FO time-variable gravity field solutions, the distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model OS LISFLOOD, and the operational Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM). The inter-annual time series were derived through decomposition using least squares fitting, followed by Butterworth low-pass filtering to capture ENSO periodicity. A global analysis of 100 hydrological basins enabled a spatial and temporal differentiation of ENSO impacts on regional TWS variability, forming the basis for computing regional hydrological angular momentum (HAM) functions. We will both discuss contributions from tropical latitudes that directly respond to modified atmospheric moisture flux pattern, but also extra-tropical regions that respond to ENSO conditions in the tropics only later in time. We thus aim to localize regional HAM contribution with a significant ENSO influence.

How to cite: Stumpe, L., Dill, R., and Dobslaw, H.: Regional Impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Hydrological Earth Rotation Excitation: A Cross-Correlation Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4347, 2025.

Rising temperatures due to climate change are suspected of driving long-term changes in atmospheric angular momentum, leading to secular variations in length of day. The magnitude of the change is naturally dependent on the intensity of the warming. The Earth's climate response, including atmospheric circulation changes from winds and from mass redistribution to several scenarios that simulate possible future anthropogenic drivers of climate change, is provided within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The scenarios are constructed from a combination of new future societal development pathways, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and the Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs (identified by approximate radiative forcing levels of X.X Wm-2 in 2100).

In this work, we analyze the projected impact of global change on atmospheric angular momentum and the related excitation of length of day from historical and 21st century simulations. We use the output of 11 models for five 21st century scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), ranging from very mild to quite extreme future climate changes. Our focus is on investigating linear trends in time series of axial atmospheric angular momentum and the temporal evolution of seasonal amplitudes. The high emission scenario, associated with more intense global warming, would lead to a slight gain in the annual amplitude and an overall increase in axial atmospheric angular momentum. The corresponding length of day change would come up to about 18% of the effect of tidal friction.

How to cite: Böhm, S. and Salstein, D.: Centennial signals in atmospheric angular momentum and its seasonal variations projected from a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4454, 2025.

Length of day (LOD), a fundamental component of Earth orientation parameters (EOP), reflects variations in Earth's rotation rate. Due to the influenced of atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, hydrological processes, and internal Earth dynamics, LOD exhibits complex nonlinear characteristics, making accurate prediction challenging Current LOD prediction models primarily depend on the high-precision, smoothed EOP C04 series provided by the IERS. However, this series has an inherent delay of approximately 30 days, causing it unsuitable for real-time applications such as interplanetary spacecraft tracking and navigation, GNSS meteorology, and real-time satellite orbit determination. To address these challenges, a novel approach based on a convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) method was proposed, which captures the time-varying characteristics of LOD by integrating IGS rapid products and effective angular momentum (EAM) datasets to improve the accuracy of near real-time LOD predictions. Results indicate that incorporating GNSS near real-time (NRT) data improves short-term (10–30 days) LOD prediction accuracy by 55.07%. By incorporating GNSS NRT data and EAM datasets, the ConvLSTM model significantly improves LOD prediction accuracy across various time scales. This enhancement not only strengthens Earth's rotation prediction models but also facilitates critical applications in real-time satellite orbit determination, extreme weather forecasting, and so on.

How to cite: Yu, K., Li, Z., Wang, J., and Jiang, W.: A Deep Learning Approach for Improving Near Real-Time LOD Prediction Accuracy by Integrating IGS Rapid Products and EAM Datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4771, 2025.

EGU25-4900 | Posters on site | G3.2

Investigations of Modelled Earth Angular Momentum Data compared to Geodetic-Derived Momentum 

Nicholas Stamatakos, Jessica Page, Dennis McCarthy, and David Salstein

In an ongoing effort to quantify performance of atmospheric and possibly additional momentum model results in support of better Earth Orientation Parameter forecasts, we compare Atmospheric (AAM) and possibly other Angular Momentum coefficients (c1, c2, and c3) to coefficients derived from geodetic sources.  The first derivative of UT1-UTC, or length of day (LOD), is proportional to the axial component of the dimensionless effective atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) functions (c3), given conservation of angular momentum in the Earth-atmosphere system.  Polar motion can also be derived from the c1 and c2 terms.  Earlier work by the same authors had compared AAM analysis files from results supplied by other meteorological centers.  This study will expand on the previous study to include additional systems and to include more data – specifically comparing AAM forecast data as well as the analysis files.  Various techniques to compare model accuracies are explored with the hope of gaining insight into how models might be improved in the future.

How to cite: Stamatakos, N., Page, J., McCarthy, D., and Salstein, D.: Investigations of Modelled Earth Angular Momentum Data compared to Geodetic-Derived Momentum, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4900, 2025.

We revisit the computation of diurnal and semidiurnal effects of the ocean tide on Polar Motion (PM) and UT1 considering the principal waves of the Ocean Tidal Angular Momentum (OTAM) calculated from the FES 2014, TPXO8 and EOT11 ocean tide atlas. We take into account the recent development of polar motion theory, especially the frequency dependence of the transfer functions in (sub-)diurnal bands. The method of calculating the minor waves is also carefully studied and modified: instead of an interpolation based on neighboring waves, we propose a frequency dependent expression obtained by a linear fit to the admittances and phases of principal waves. Compared in time domain with polar motion (PM) and UT1 derived from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations, our tables for FES 2014 and TPXO8 perform as well as the recent Desai-Sibois model computed from TPXO8 tidal atlas. The impact of diurnal and semi-diurnal oscillations produced by the luni-solar tidal torque on the asymmetric mean mass distribution of the Earth are observed in the corresponding residuals, which is not the case for the older PM/UT1 model recommended in IERS Convention 2010. More generally, we conclude that tidal modelling of sub-daily terms and corresponding empirical developments are consistent to within 23 μas for PM and 3 μs for UT1. Our tables, calculated from FES 2014 or TPXO8 OTAM, can be truncated to the 48 or 50 terms with amplitudes above 1 μas for PM or 0.1 μs for UT1 to describe those Earth rotation Parameters in a way consistent with their current observation uncertainties.  

How to cite: Bizouard, C. and Cheng, Y.: Diurnal and semi-diurnal effects of ocean tides on polar motion and UT1: an updated assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5769, 2025.

EGU25-6616 | Posters on site | G3.2

Consistent combination of geodetic and geophysical Earth rotation information 

Mathis Bloßfeld, Lone Stumpe, Bingbing Duan, Urs Hugentobler, Robert Dill, and Alexander Kehm

In current official low-latency Earth Rotation Parameter (ERP) products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), only geodetic data is used. For ERP predictions, deterministic signals and long-term trends of geodetic time series are combined with geophysical (Effective angular momentum; EAM) data. Consequently, the transition between the combined (geodetic) and predicted ERPs (prediction day zero) is connected to an abrupt change in input data yielding inconsistencies between the two parts of the time series. Most notably, the gradients of the predicted ERPs differ with respect to the geodetic ERPs.

In our study, carried out within the framework of a DFG-funded project between DGFI-TUM, GFZ and TUM named PROGRESS (Pro- and Retrospective highly accurate and consistent Earth Orientation parameters for Geodetic Research within the Earth System Sciences), we developed an alternative approach that directly combines geodetic and geophysical ERP information to achieve a consistent and continuously differentiable time series. To achieve this goal, the last days of the ERP combination include EAM-based ERP information with increasing relative weight with respect to the geodetic ERP information (and vice-versa). To improve the information provided by space-geodetic techniques, systematic biases are studied in detail such as the impact of different satellite constellations and solar radiation pressure models on the determination of GNSS LOD biases.

How to cite: Bloßfeld, M., Stumpe, L., Duan, B., Hugentobler, U., Dill, R., and Kehm, A.: Consistent combination of geodetic and geophysical Earth rotation information, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6616, 2025.

Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), including polar motion (PM), universal time variations (UT1-UTC), and celestial pole offsets (CPO), play a critical role in the accurate transformation of coordinates between terrestrial and celestial reference frames. Reliable EOP predictions are indispensable for applications in modern geodesy and astronomy, including precise positioning, navigation on Earth and in space, and determining the orbits of satellites.

The Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), conducted between 2021 and 2022 by CBK PAN Warsaw in collaboration with GFZ Potsdam, provided a platform to evaluate EOP various prediction capabilities. Following the main campaign, a post-operational phase of the 2nd EOP PCC was initiated in January 2023, offering participants the opportunity to continue submitting and evaluating their EOP forecasts. This extended phase serves as a platform for additional studies on prediction accuracy, reliability, and robustness, while fostering collaboration among participating institutions.

A key element of the post-operational phase is the EOP PML sub-campaign, which explores the application of machine learning (ML) techniques to EOP prediction. Predictions are evaluated under two scenarios: one excluding and the other including Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) data derived from atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and sea-level contributions. These predictions are tested over a 10-day horizon using predefined input data, i.e., IERS 20 C04 solutions and EAM forecasts. The EOP PML aims to assess the potential of ML-based approaches in enhancing prediction accuracy under controlled conditions.

This presentation will provide an overview of the post-operational phase of the 2nd EOP PCC, with a focus on its goals, methodologies, and preliminary results, including insights gained from the EOP PML sub-campaign. By integrating traditional and ML-based approaches, this effort contributes to advancing EOP prediction techniques and their operational applications.

How to cite: Partyka, A., Nastula, J., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Wińska, M., and Michalczak, M.: Insights from the post-operational phase of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) and sub-campaign dedicated to machine learning-based prediction approaches (EOP PML), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9631, 2025.

EGU25-11002 | ECS | Orals | G3.2

Characteristics of different VLBI session types in the view of Earth Orientation Parameter determination 

Alexander Kehm, Sabine Bachmann, Lisa Klemm, Sadegh Modiri, and Daniela Thaller

VLBI is the unique space-geodetic technique sensitive to the full set of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), i.e., polar motion offsets and rates, UT1–UTC, the length-of-day (LOD) and the nutation offsets. Classically, the Rapid (R1/R4) sessions, scheduled twice a week, are the main contributor to EOP determination as they are processed with highest priority (leading to comparably low latencies). Additionally, Intensive sessions scheduled daily are processed to determine the UT1–UTC offset at short latencies.

However, also other VLBI session types (mainly 24-hour sessions) are regularly observed and processed, but typically with longer latencies, and those sessions are not regularly combined yet. As most of these sessions also have the potential to deliver good EOP estimates, their inclusion into the combination would lead to a densification of the VLBI contribution to combined EOP series. Very recently, the IERS product centers for EOPs emphasized that such a combined IVS contribution would be very valuable to improve the accuracy and reliability of the Earth rotation products according to the user requirements.

This study aims to define a set of criteria to evaluate VLBI sessions with respect to their suitability for EOP determination. These sessions include, but are not limited to, 24-hour sessions with globally well-distributed networks which were initially scheduled for other purposes like the determination of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) but are also sensitive to EOPs. Besides the distribution of the stations in a geographical sense, the selection criteria also include investigation of the sensitivity of the observations to the parameters estimated within individual sessions and of correlations between these parameters.

The different characteristics of the various VLBI session types could lead to systematic differences in the EOP estimates. We thus will investigate the resulting EOPs in view of systematics and will set up a procedure to regularly monitor the consistency between the different session types. We outline the combination strategy being developed to enable such a flexible combination of pre-selected VLBI session setups for dedicated studies and also on an operational basis, whereby the routines are based on the current operational combination scenario of the BKG/DGFI-TUM IVS Combination Centre.

How to cite: Kehm, A., Bachmann, S., Klemm, L., Modiri, S., and Thaller, D.: Characteristics of different VLBI session types in the view of Earth Orientation Parameter determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11002, 2025.

EGU25-11901 | Posters on site | G3.2

Insights into the Consistency and Accuracy of dUT1 Estimates from Legacy and VGOS Intensive Sessions 

Daniela Thaller, Sadegh Modiri, Gerald Engelhardt, Markus Goltz, Christian Schade, Lisa Klemm, and Alexander Kehm

The BKG VLBI Analysis Center routinely analyzes dUT1 estimates from various Intensive session types, including legacy and VGOS observations. This study evaluates the consistency and accuracy of these dUT1 estimates, focusing on differences between session types and identifying long-term trends.

By analyzing session-specific characteristics and potential biases in dUT1 data, we compare legacy and VGOS sessions to assess how evolving observing strategies impact estimation quality. Our results provide insight into improving dUT1 accuracy and support efforts to refine VLBI observation schedules and analysis methods for high-precision Earth Orientation Parameters.

This study contributes to enhancing the reliability of operational VLBI products and reinforces the role of consistent analysis in advancing geodetic accuracy.

How to cite: Thaller, D., Modiri, S., Engelhardt, G., Goltz, M., Schade, C., Klemm, L., and Kehm, A.: Insights into the Consistency and Accuracy of dUT1 Estimates from Legacy and VGOS Intensive Sessions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11901, 2025.

EGU25-15374 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.2

Enhancing Regularity and Accuracy of VLBI EOP Products 

Lisa Klemm, Daniela Thaller, Claudia Flohrer, Sadegh Modiri, Sabine Bachmann, and Alexander Kehm

This study focuses on the development of a daily VLBI time series of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) with improved accuracy and regularity by combining data from various VLBI sessions at the normal equation level. The combined approach addresses the limitations of the existing IVS EOP products, the EOP-S and EOP-I series, which are currently estimated and published separately for 24-hour geodetic VLBI sessions and 1-hour Intensive sessions.

While the EOP-S series is characterized by high accuracy due to the observation of global networks over 24 hours, its temporal resolution is irregular and non-daily. In contrast, the EOP-I series provides daily EOP values but also has irregular temporal resolution, as it is estimated at mid-session epochs that vary depending on the type of Intensive session. Furthermore, the short observation periods of one-hour result in lower dUT1 estimation accuracy compared to the EOP-S product. By combining data from these session types, this study aims to reduce these limitations to achieve a daily and more consistent EOP series with improved accuracy.

The presentation will detail the methodology used for the combination, including session selection and the data handling process. Challenges such as data gaps, inconsistencies, and systematic effects are addressed. The results demonstrate significant improvements in both the temporal regularity and the accuracy of the resulting EOP series, enabling better comparability with other EOP products and providing robust input for EOP prediction algorithms. This work highlights the potential of intra-technique combination to enhance the quality and usability of VLBI-based geodetic products.

How to cite: Klemm, L., Thaller, D., Flohrer, C., Modiri, S., Bachmann, S., and Kehm, A.: Enhancing Regularity and Accuracy of VLBI EOP Products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15374, 2025.

EGU25-15860 | Posters on site | G3.2

Towards a potential update of the standards of Earth rotation 

Alberto Escapa, José Manuel Ferrándiz, María Karbon, Santiago Belda, and Tomás Baenas

A characterization of Earth rotation makes possible to perform the ubiquitious transformation between terrestrial and celestial systems. How this transformation is implemented in practice is addressed in different IAU/IUGG/IAG resolutions and described extensively in the IERS Conventions.

In the last years several IAU/IAG joint working groups on the Earth rotation have called attention to the limitations of existing Earth rotation models, which date back to the early 2000s, considering current demands on Earth rotation determination (about 1mm on the Earth surface). In fact, two resolutions by IAG (No.5, 2019) and IAU (No.B2, 2021) encouraged a prompt improvement of the Earth rotation theory. In this line, in the last GGOS/IERS Unified Analysis Workshops (UAW 2019, 2022) some recommendations have been done on the revision/updating of IERS Conventions 2010 (e.g., Ferrándiz & Escapa 2029, 2022).

In this communication, we will review the current standarization of the transformation from the celestial to the terrestrial system and its components (precession/nutation, Earth rotation angle, and polar motion). We will focus on the limitations of IAU 2000/2006 precession/nutation, providing a roadmap that would allow their update in the short term.

Acknowledgments.- This work has been partially supported by the Spanish projects PID2020-119383GB-I00 funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/), Generalitat Valenciana SEJIGENT/2021/001, and the European Union—NextGenerationEU (ZAMBRANO 21-04).

How to cite: Escapa, A., Ferrándiz, J. M., Karbon, M., Belda, S., and Baenas, T.: Towards a potential update of the standards of Earth rotation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15860, 2025.

EGU25-17359 | Posters on site | G3.2

Enhancing EOP Prediction through Technique-Specific and Multi-Technique Combined EOP series 

Sadegh Modiri, Daniela Thaller, Santiago Belda, Dzana Halilovic, Alexander Kehm, Lisa Klemm, Daniel König, Sabine Bachmann, and Claudia Flohrer

Accurate prediction of EOP is essential for bridging the gap between real-time applications and the inherent latency of observational data processing. The quality of EOP predictions is significantly affected by the input data used. Merging multiple sources due to data latency can introduce inconsistencies in the input data. Therefore, ensuring internal consistency within the datasets is critical for achieving reliable predictions.

This study investigates EOP prediction using consistent input datasets derived from technique-specific solutions provided by the ILRS and IVS Analysis Centers at BKG and GNSS data from CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe). Additionally, combined multi-technique EOP data developed by the BKG Combination Center are incorporated to evaluate their potential for enhancing predictive performance. Comparative analysis is performed against the official IERS datasets IERS 20 C04 and Bulletin A to evaluate these approaches' relative accuracy and reliability.

The results demonstrate the advantages of using internally consistent technique-specific and multi-technique combined datasets for EOP prediction. This work contributes to refining EOP prediction consistency, offering strategies to further improve the quality of operational EOP products.

How to cite: Modiri, S., Thaller, D., Belda, S., Halilovic, D., Kehm, A., Klemm, L., König, D., Bachmann, S., and Flohrer, C.: Enhancing EOP Prediction through Technique-Specific and Multi-Technique Combined EOP series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17359, 2025.

EGU25-17394 | ECS | Orals | G3.2

Formula for the Chandler Period (Free Wobble of Planetary Bodies) 

Michaela Walterová and Vojtěch Patočka

If the rotational equilibrium of a planetary body is disturbed, the rotation pole responds with a cyclical motion. When viewed from space, it is expressed as a wobble of the planet around its rotation axis and the duration of one cycle is referred to as the Chandler period. Because planets are not rigid, the wobble period differs from the  Euler period by the factor (1-kX/kf), where kX/kf is a ratio of two Love numbers. Here, we perform numerical simulations in which viscoelastic deformation of the planet and the Liouville equation hence polar motion are self-consistently coupled. We show that kX is not the Love number at the frequency of the Chandler wobble itself, as is commonly assumed, but rather that it is close to ke, the elastic Love number. This result is important when the Chandler periods of Earth and Mars are interpreted, because the measured frequency is related to the internal rheological structure in a different way than previously thought.

Details of this work are provided in the manuscript by Patočka and Walterová (2025).

 

References:

Patočka and Walterová (2025): “Formula for the Chandler Period (Free Wobble of Planetary Bodies)”, submitted to GRL, preprint in ESSOAr: 10.22541/essoar.172901323.38157149/v1

How to cite: Walterová, M. and Patočka, V.: Formula for the Chandler Period (Free Wobble of Planetary Bodies), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17394, 2025.

EGU25-19103 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.2

Revisiting core contributions to Length-of-day variations. 

Guilhem Chicot, Véronique Dehant, Daoud Laariara, Mioara Mandea, and Sheng-An Shih

The length-of-day (LOD) is influenced by various factors, including the periodic deformations of the solid Earth caused by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Moon, and other planets. These well-documented effects, along with secular trends primarily attributed to tidal dissipation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), are removed from the data to focus on other influences. Atmospheric excitations, and oceanic excitations when possible, are also accounted for, as they play a significant role in LOD variations across seasonal, inter-annual, and intra-annual timescales.

On longer timescales (decadal, inter-decadal, and intra-decadal), LOD variations are primarily associated with processes within Earth's core, with potential contributions from external mechanisms. Angular momentum is transferred to the solid Earth primarily through core dynamics, with torsional Alfvén oscillations and large-scale magneto-Coriolis waves identified as key drivers of these variations.

To investigate the origins of LOD fluctuations, we analyze modern and historical observations spanning periods from years to millennia. Employing techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), Morlet wavelet analysis, singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and the Lomb-Scargle periodogram (LSP) for uneven data intervals, we extract and verify trends, frequencies, amplitudes, and phases of periodic components. Our comprehensive amplitude-period distribution analysis strongly indicates that Earth's core dynamics are the dominant drivers of LOD variations on timescales exceeding the annual cycle.

How to cite: Chicot, G., Dehant, V., Laariara, D., Mandea, M., and Shih, S.-A.: Revisiting core contributions to Length-of-day variations., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19103, 2025.

EGU25-20278 | Orals | G3.2

Basic Earth Parameters from VLBI observations: an update 

Yuting Cheng, Veronique Dehant, Christian Bizouard, and Attilio Rivoldini

Understanding Earth's rotation is crucial for a wide range of applications, including positioning, satellite navigation, and remote sensing, as variations in Earth's rotational speed and orientation directly impact the accuracy of these technologies. Earth’s periodic orientation changes, known as nutations, are currently evaluated using a model adopted by the international community back in 2000. This work seeks to develop an updated nutation model by integrating the latest geophysical knowledge and refining computational methods. We build on the oceanic corrections computed by Yuting Cheng during her PhD, on the method for determining the updated Basic Earth Parameters (BEPs) from VLBI data developed in Koot et al. (2008), an Bayesian inversion updated in parameterization and sampling method, and on insights gained from the GRACEFUL Synergy ERC grant on core dynamics.

How to cite: Cheng, Y., Dehant, V., Bizouard, C., and Rivoldini, A.: Basic Earth Parameters from VLBI observations: an update, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20278, 2025.

EGU25-938 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Groundwater depletion in NW India and its response on crustal deformation 

Shubham Rajewar, Akarsh Asoka, Sai Krishnan, Puviarasan Narayanasamy, Ritesh Purohit, Harsh Bhu, and Vineet Gahalaut

The GRACE measurements of the time-variable gravity field and mass change have helped in identifying regions of water reservoir over land, ice, and ocean, as well as in locating areas affected by drought and groundwater over-extraction. Studies indicate depletion in groundwater resources in North West (NW) India due to over-extraction from agricultural activities. The GPS measurements in the region indicate uplift rate varying from 1.5 to 4.2 mm/year caused by groundwater depletion-induced mass change. We observed a significant correspondence between the rainfall pattern, mass change derived from GRACE measurements, GPS measurements derived deformation, and well-level changes. Despite some marginal increase in rainfall in the past 3-4 years, the region is still experiencing over-extraction of groundwater due to increased demand for agriculture water. Although the Delhi Aravalli fold belt's paleo-structure primarily governs earthquakes in and around the Delhi region, we found no correlation between crustal strain rates and seismicity. Specifically, areas with high strain exhibited fewer earthquakes and less seismic energy release. GRACE data shows that prolonged groundwater over-extraction has resulted in significant negative anomalies in Equivalent Water Height (EWH). Although the magnitude of GRACE derived strain is very low, we find a good correlation between the GRACE-derived strain rates and seismicity. Our analysis demonstrates that groundwater over-extraction leads to substantial deformation in this region, which leads to earthquakes, and the observed uplift implies unclamping of faults, which may promote seismic events.

How to cite: Rajewar, S., Asoka, A., Krishnan, S., Narayanasamy, P., Purohit, R., Bhu, H., and Gahalaut, V.: Groundwater depletion in NW India and its response on crustal deformation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-938, 2025.

EGU25-1903 | Posters on site | G3.4

Constraining Last Interglacial ice sheet volumes through GIA-corrected sea-level reconstructions 

Jun'ichi Okuno and Yoshiya Irie

Understanding the behaviour of polar ice sheets during past warm intervals provides critical constraints on their potential response to future warming scenarios. The Last Interglacial (LIG, ~125 ka) is a particularly valuable analogue, characterised by temperatures around 1-2°C above pre-industrial levels and global mean sea level 6-9 m higher than today. This study presents a comprehensive analysis integrating relative sea level (RSL) observations with numerical modelling to reconstruct ice volume fluctuations during this key interval.

A fundamental challenge in reconstructing past ice volumes from RSL records lies in deconvolving the spatially heterogeneous solid Earth deformation signals associated with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) from the eustatic component. To address this, we have developed and implemented a high-resolution numerical model that explicitly accounts for GIA effects during the LIG. The integration of this model with a spatially extensive database of well-dated RSL indicators enables robust constraints on polar ice sheet volume changes.

This study utilises a GIA model, incorporating rotational effects, in order to predict variations in both space and time with respect to RSL during the LIG. The aim of this study is to evaluate the dependence of these predictions on penultimate glacial maximum ice geometries, by conducting a comparison with global RSL observations. The conclusions of this study serve to further the understanding of ice sheet response to warming, and thus inform future projections of sea level.

How to cite: Okuno, J. and Irie, Y.: Constraining Last Interglacial ice sheet volumes through GIA-corrected sea-level reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1903, 2025.

EGU25-2238 | Posters on site | G3.4

Investigating Surface Gravity and Height Variations due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Data in Fennoscandia and Canada 

Mohammad Bagherbandi, Lars E. Sjöberg, Ismael Foroughi, and Mahmoud Abd El-Gelil

Precise gravity measurements have been consistently collected in Fennoscandia and Canada since the 1960s and 1990s, respectively, using relative gravimeters and later employing absolute gravimeters (e.g., FG5 and A10 absolute gravimeters) to establish gravity reference system and study temporal changes in gravity, e.g. associated with ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In this study, we utilized monthly data from GRACE and GRACE Follow-on, spanning 2003 to 2023, to estimate temporal variations in surface gravity changes, their relationship with land uplift rates, and to determine the upper mantle density associated with viscous mass flow in the mantle. The main focus of this paper is Canada; however, the results will be compared with our previous studies in Fennoscandia. We used the ICE-6G_D land uplift model for Canada and the NKG2016LU regional land uplift model for Fennoscandia for this purpose. The satellite gravimetry results were compared with terrestrial absolute gravity observations collected at 43 stations across Canada and Fennoscandia, respectively.

The results derived from GRACE and GRACE Follow-on data show that the ratio between surface gravity and height changes is −0.152 ± 0.010 μGal/mm in Canada and −0.156 ± 0.016 μGal/mm in Fennoscandia aligning closely with findings from terrestrial gravity observations. These values correspond to upper mantle densities of approximately 3736 ± 239 kg/m³ and 3641 ± 382 kg/m³ in Canada and Fennoscandia, respectively. In addition, the results were combined with terrestrial absolute gravimetry results. These findings highlight the importance of satellite gravimetry data and are crucial for GIA modeling and the Earth’s interior parameters.

How to cite: Bagherbandi, M., Sjöberg, L. E., Foroughi, I., and Abd El-Gelil, M.: Investigating Surface Gravity and Height Variations due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Data in Fennoscandia and Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2238, 2025.

EGU25-2530 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Surface Mass Balance Variability causes Viscoelastic Solid Earth Deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula 

Grace Nield, Michael Bentley, Achraf Koulali, Peter Clarke, Matt King, Terry Wilson, and Pippa Whitehouse

Present-day ice-mass changes in Antarctica deform the solid Earth elastically, and this signal needs removing from GPS observations of displacement before they can be used to constrain models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). However, much of West Antarctica is underlain by weak upper mantle, meaning that these short-term fluctuations may also cause a transient or viscous deformation of the Earth. We model the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to surface mass balance (SMB) variability in the Antarctic Peninsula and find an improved fit to GPS data at most sites compared to elastic only. Viscoelastic modelling constrains upper mantle steady-state viscosity in the northern Peninsula to 5×1017 to 2×1018 Pa s, and >1×1018 Pa s for the mid to southern Peninsula. In the northern Peninsula, removing viscoelastic displacement caused by SMB variability from GPS time series increases estimated uplift rates by up to 3mm/yr compared with using an elastic correction.

How to cite: Nield, G., Bentley, M., Koulali, A., Clarke, P., King, M., Wilson, T., and Whitehouse, P.: Surface Mass Balance Variability causes Viscoelastic Solid Earth Deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2530, 2025.

EGU25-2615 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Poro-elastic modulation of aquifers explain seasonal and decadal geodetic signals in Southern Louisiana. 

Pritom Sarma, Carolina Hurtado-Pulido, Einat Aharonov, Renaud Toussaint, Stanislav Parez, Eduardo Arzabala, and Cynthia Ebinger

Coastal Louisiana experiences ground subsidence, exacerbating flooding and land loss from sea level rise. Natural and anthropogenic causes induce spatially and temporally varying subsidence in this sector of the Gulf of Mexico passive margin. The geodetic displacements in the Baton Rouge area over the period of 2018-2024 show cyclic seasonal displacement superposed on long-term subsidence, implying a small seasonal loading component. We assert that the seasonal fluctuations are controlled by seasonal changes in Mississippi River discharge that infiltrate sandstone aquifers separated by shales.   

Here we theoretically examine a simple radial analytical formulation of poroelastic dilation and compaction responses induced by seasonal fluctuation in groundwater levels assuming a hydrostatic response, using Darcy’ law. Due to the semi-confined nature of the aquifer, we assume a hydrostatic infiltration response, yet at the same time we assume a confined poroelastic response of the aquifer. Using a reasonable range of aquifer specific storage (Kuang et al., 2020), the predicted seasonal dilation and compaction agrees with the geodetic data on both spatial and temporal scales, exhibiting ground deformation associated with both long term groundwater extraction or recharge and seasonal groundwater fluctuation. We hence argue that the poroelasticity of aquifers can explain seasonal and long term signals in geodetic observations in Southern Louisiana without requiring additional processes like fault creep or salt movement.

How to cite: Sarma, P., Hurtado-Pulido, C., Aharonov, E., Toussaint, R., Parez, S., Arzabala, E., and Ebinger, C.: Poro-elastic modulation of aquifers explain seasonal and decadal geodetic signals in Southern Louisiana., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2615, 2025.

EGU25-2871 | Orals | G3.4

Hydrogeodesy can address key hydrological questions and water resources sustainability 

Fernando Jaramillo and the Hydrogeodesy group

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world’s water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth’s solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential to do so. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling. While some water resources, such as lakes and glaciers, are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. The expert elicitation envisages the large potential to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advancing knowledge as guidance towards a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining several hydrogeodetic technologies, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. We call for a coordinated way forward to broaden the use of hydrogeodesy and exploit its full potential.

How to cite: Jaramillo, F. and the Hydrogeodesy group: Hydrogeodesy can address key hydrological questions and water resources sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2871, 2025.

EGU25-4027 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Terrestrial water storage changes of Qinghai Lake on the Tibetan Plateau from joint inversion of GNSS and InSAR data 

Hai Zhu, Kejie Chen, Mingjia Li, Shunqiang Hu, Guoqing Zhang, Xingxing Kuang, Wenfeng Cui, and Shengpeng Zhang

While geodetic observations are now commonly used to retrieve terrestrial water storage changes at regional or watershed scales, their application at the local scale, such as individual lakes, remains limited due to spatial resolution constraints and the lack of onsite observations, especially in remote areas. This study investigated the deformation field and water storage changes at Qinghai Lake, China from January 2016 to December 2022 by integrating data from five Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images. We observed that the area surrounding Qinghai Lake exhibited an overall subsidence trend with rates ranging from -2.89 to -0.30 mm/yr between January 2016 and August 2019. However, from September 2019 to December 2022, this trend reversed to an uplift with rates ranging from 2.20 to 4.89 mm/yr. This shift in deformation direction is largely attributed to changed precipitation influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, independent component (IC) analysis of the deformation field shows that the first two ICs accounted for 77.36% and 16.67% of the data variance, representing loading signals due to regional background hydrological loading and lake water storage gains, respectively. We then reconstructed the loading deformation associated with lake dynamics and inverted the lake water storage changes, which demonstrated high consistency (r=0.86) with lake volume changes estimated from satellite water level measurements, indicating that increases in lake surface water constitute a significant portion of the water storage increases.

How to cite: Zhu, H., Chen, K., Li, M., Hu, S., Zhang, G., Kuang, X., Cui, W., and Zhang, S.: Terrestrial water storage changes of Qinghai Lake on the Tibetan Plateau from joint inversion of GNSS and InSAR data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4027, 2025.

EGU25-4691 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Assessing Long-Term and Seasonal Drivers of Black Sea Level Rise: Runoff and Loading Deformation (1993–2024) 

Zhiqiang Wen, Peyman Saemian, Wenke Sun, and Mohammad J. Tourian

Global warming and its associated impacts on sea level rise pose increasing risks to coastal regions. However, regional sea level changes are influenced by local factors, including land subsidence and localized climatic phenomena, which can exhibit significant variations that exceed the global average. As the world's largest inland sea, the Black Sea water level changes are driven not only by global climate processes but also significantly influenced by river runoff, with almost one-third of the entire land area of continental Europe draining into it, making it a critical factor in sea level variations. This study investigates long-term and seasonal variations in Black Sea water level and basin runoff by integrating satellite altimetry data with in situ hydrological observations, spanning 1993-2024. The results indicate a long-term sea level rise of 3.7 ± 0.38 mm/year for the Black Sea, with the winter season showing a notably higher trend of 3.89 ± 0.38 mm/year compared to other seasons. By investigating the relative contributions of steric (thermal expansion and salinity changes) and mass-related sea level changes, corrected for surface loading deformation, this study provides insights into the mechanisms driving regional sea level variability and the broader hydrological responses of Black Sea surrounding basins.

Keywords: the Black Sea; steric sea level rise; river discharge; Altimetry; loading deformation

How to cite: Wen, Z., Saemian, P., Sun, W., and Tourian, M. J.: Assessing Long-Term and Seasonal Drivers of Black Sea Level Rise: Runoff and Loading Deformation (1993–2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4691, 2025.

EGU25-4710 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Solid Earth deformation in Greenland observed by the Greenland’s GNSS Network 

Danjal Berg, Abbas Khan, and Rebekka Steffen

The Greenland ice sheet has lost significant mass over the past two decades. More than 58 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations on bedrock, which are part of Greenland’s GNSS Network (GNET), measure the deformation continuously. The solid Earth displacement processes are two-fold: an instantaneous elastic deformation and a slow viscoelastic deformation, which can be attributed to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We have gained new insight into both vertical and horizontal land movement by removing the elastic deformation with high-resolution mass change grids.

By including mass change from Greenland and Arctic Canada peripheral glaciers, our estimates for the vertical GNSS velocities align with GIA models, though significant regional discrepancies remain. For the horizontal GNSS velocity component, new Euler poles describing the North American plate where fitted, which is the majority of the horizontal observed GNSS velocity. We compared our inferred horizontal GIA deformation with 26 1D GIA models. We discovered a significant inward contraction field in South Greenland, originating from the Laurentide ice sheet that the GIA models cannot capture. A complete North, East, and Up inferred GIA velocity field for Greenland can be used as a constraint for both GIA models and to target stations with abnormal behaviour where mass change estimates should be improved.

How to cite: Berg, D., Khan, A., and Steffen, R.: Solid Earth deformation in Greenland observed by the Greenland’s GNSS Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4710, 2025.

EGU25-6683 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

InSAR for the characterization of climate-related processes in Northwest Italy 

Daniele Guidi, Francesca Silverii, Marco Polcari, and Eleonora Rivalta

Insights into hydrologically-induced deformations of the Earth surface, and particularly of aquifers, are crucial for a better understanding of water cycle dynamics and its interaction with solid earth processes and to provide useful information for the sustainable management of water resources. The high spatio-temporal resolution and millimeter/centimeter-scale accuracy of surface deformation data from satellite geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) make it possible to measure and identify signals related to hydrological forcing. Elastic loading response has been primarily investigated using GNSS surface displacement to infer TWS variation at regional scales. The higher spatial resolution of InSAR measurements has made it possible to identify surface deformation patterns associated with the groundwater storage (GWS) variation of local aquifer systems.

In this work we leveraged Sentinel-1A Multi-Temporal InSAR observations from the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) to analyse the deformation occurring in an area in North-Western Italy. This region hosts the Po valley, a large alluvial plain in northern Italy characterized by abundance of both surface and groundwater bodies, which are extensively exploited for farming and industrial activities. Recently, changing climatic conditions have imposed additional stress on water resources, culminating into a severe drought in 2022. GNSS data revealed an elastic response to the TWS variation associated to this drought at entire Po basin scale (Pintori & Serpelloni 2023).

We analysed InSAR time series (2018-2022) focusing on an area spanning from the low Lombardian plain to the foothills of the Alps, encompassing terrain that transitions from fine alluvial deposits in the south to coarser fan and glacial deposits in the north and including some main cities and two of the largest Italian lakes. We applied decomposition and clustering techniques in order to extract the signals contributing to the observed deformation and their spatio-temporal features. To identify the possible physical drivers, we compared our results with publicly available precipitation, rivers discharge and water head table piezometric data, and hydro-geological information. We found that different areas respond with different mechanical behaviours to the same forcing. We highlighted localized areas on the piedmont belt which are mainly characterized by a transient multiyear signal of up to 15 mm which results to be strongly correlated with precipitation, uplifting in wet periods and subsiding during drought periods. This is consistent with a poroelastic response which could be attributed to the higher localized concentration of coarse-grained material like gravel and sand in the piedmont belt. We applied models of poroelastic deformation, including, where available, hydraulic head data, to relate the identified poroelastic surface deformation to GWS variation, and characterize the aquifers properties. Outside these areas, the multiyear deformation pattern has a lower amplitude (up to 2mm) and is anticorrelated in time with precipitation, consistently with an elastic loading response. We computed the elastic deformation due to the estimated TWS variation from Pintori & Serpelloni (2023) and found agreement in order of magnitude and temporal trends with InSAR data.

How to cite: Guidi, D., Silverii, F., Polcari, M., and Rivalta, E.: InSAR for the characterization of climate-related processes in Northwest Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6683, 2025.

EGU25-6751 | Posters on site | G3.4

Timing of glacier retreat and spatio-temporal variations in the vertical deformation rate of the Horseshoe Island, Marguarite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula 

Mehmet Korhan Erturaç, Eren Şahiner, Raif Kandemir, Hilal Okur, İrem Salman, Altuğ Hasözbek, Mehmet Salim Öncel, Jintang Qin, and Naki Akçar

The Antarctic Peninsula is uplifting rapidly due to the isostatic response to ice sheet unloading since the Holocene. Understanding the timing and rate of this process is crucial for addressing several key research questions: (1) exploring the elastic interactions between the mantle and lithosphere to improve Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models, (2) assessing the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to Holocene global sea level rise, and (3) investigating the modern response of Antarctic ice sheets to climate change, helping to identify high-impact research areas for polar science.
We focus on stepped coastal terrace staircases formed at the Horseshoe Island, Marguerite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula. We used low altitude UAS aided SfM mapping to measure the horizontal and vertical geometry of stepped terraces and deployed absolute dating methods (luminescence and radiocarbon) to establish their formation timelines for the east (Gaul Cove, #6 dates), north (Sally Cove, #2) and west (Lystad Bay, #2) of the island.  
The field observations and achieved data explained the formation mechanisms and evolutionary steps of the terraces and pinpoint (1) the timing of deglaciation of the Island, (2) reconstruct a RSL curve for the Holocene and (3) variations in temporal and spatial vertical uplift rates. Our reconstructed RSL(s) fit the geometry of model curves proposed by Peltier (2004) and Whitehouse (2018) . However, there is an apparent discrepancy between our results and published estimations from coastal record of Antarctic Peninsula. This raises questions on the accuracy of dating or interpretation of the results for studies on stepped-coastal terraces. This presentation aims to represent analytical data to discuss these critical issues.
This study was carried under the auspices of Presidency of The Republic of Turkey, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Technology, and coordinated by TUBITAK MAM Polar Research Institute within the TAE-VIII expedition and supported by TUBITAK 122G261 grant.

How to cite: Erturaç, M. K., Şahiner, E., Kandemir, R., Okur, H., Salman, İ., Hasözbek, A., Öncel, M. S., Qin, J., and Akçar, N.: Timing of glacier retreat and spatio-temporal variations in the vertical deformation rate of the Horseshoe Island, Marguarite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6751, 2025.

EGU25-6896 | Posters on site | G3.4

A Novel Approach to Aquifer Classification Using Hysteresis Loop Analysis and Deep Learning for Sustainable Groundwater Management 

Behshid Khodaei, Hossein Hashemi, and Mazda Kompanizare

Aquifer classification plays a pivotal role in understanding groundwater dynamics and informing sustainable water resource management, especially in regions under significant stress from over-extraction. This study presents a novel remote sensing-based methodology for classifying aquifers represented by monitoring wells within the study area. The approach integrates stress-strain analysis, incorporating deformation data derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and groundwater head measurements from monitoring wells, utilizing advanced deep-learning techniques. Groundwater data from piezometric wells are utilized to create image-based representations of hysteresis loops derived from stress-strain diagrams, capturing aquifer deformation under varying drawdown and recovery cycles. A convolutional neural network is applied to extract high-dimensional features characterizing aquifer response dynamics. Principal component analysis is then employed to reduce dimensionality, highlighting the most significant features driving classification. Finally, unsupervised clustering methods are used to group piezometric wells, revealing distinct aquifer types and deformation patterns. The proposed methodology is tested in three hydrologically and geologically diverse regions of Iran: Shabestar, Urmia, and Neyshabur Plains. In the Shabestar and Urmia Plains, located near the hypersaline Lake Urmia, intensive groundwater extraction has severely strained local hydrological and ecological systems, contributing to declining lake levels and increased stress on water resources. Similarly, in the Neyshabur Plain in northeastern Iran, characterized by its arid to semi-arid environment and intricate geological features, excessive groundwater use has led to significant aquifer depletion and land subsidence. The proposed approach effectively identifies different aquifer types, analyzes the balance between elastic and inelastic deformation, and determines aquifer responses to varying degrees of groundwater extraction. By integrating InSAR-based deformation monitoring of ground surface with advanced deep learning techniques, the study provides a comprehensive framework for aquifer system characterization. The findings are particularly valuable for regions with scarce geological and hydrological data, offering insights to guide sustainable groundwater management practices, mitigate environmental degradation, and support effective decision-making. 

How to cite: Khodaei, B., Hashemi, H., and Kompanizare, M.: A Novel Approach to Aquifer Classification Using Hysteresis Loop Analysis and Deep Learning for Sustainable Groundwater Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6896, 2025.

Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) is a vital component of the Earth's hydrological and climate systems, influencing water resource management and ecosystem dynamics. However, current TWS estimation techniques, such as those derived from global spherical harmonics, suffer from low spatial and temporal resolutions, limiting their application for regional studies. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework for regional TWS estimation based on Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA) applied to GNSS-derived vertical crustal displacements. The proposed methodology employs the remove-restore strategy to isolate the hydrological load within the cap. First, mass redistribution signals from outside the cap are removed using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data. The GNSS-derived residual vertical displacements are then expanded into SCHA coefficients, incorporating modified load Love numbers that account for the spherical cap geometry. The modified load Love numbers ensure a physically consistent representation of the Earth's elastic response within the cap boundary. The estimated coefficients (residual) are used to recover residual TWS variations, after which the removed external contributions are restored. The proposed approach provides enhanced spatial resolution and accuracy compared to traditional global spherical harmonics by tailoring the analysis to the geometry of a spherical cap.

Both simulated and observed GNSS data from a network of stations across Brazil, covering diverse hydrological regimes—from the Amazon Basin to the semi-arid Northeast—are analyzed to validate this approach. The results reveal spatial and temporal patterns of TWS changes, demonstrating agreement with independent GRACE estimates and hydrological models. These findings emphasize the ability of SCHA-based regional analysis to capture local-scale hydrological processes with higher precision than global methods. Furthermore, this study highlights the potential of SCHA to complement GRACE datasets in regions with dense GNSS observational coverage and advances geodetic techniques for hydrological monitoring.

How to cite: Ferreira, V.: Regional Terrestrial Water Storage Recovery Using Spherical Cap Harmonics from GNSS-Derived Vertical Displacements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7627, 2025.

EGU25-8623 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

A dataset of GPS-observed daily displacements for hydrogeodetic studies over Europe 

Anna Klos, Anne Springer, Artur Lenczuk, Christian Mielke, Jan Mikocki, Jürgen Kusche, and Janusz Bogusz

We use more than 5,000 Global Positioning System (GPS) permanent stations whose observations are processed by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) and located in Europe to classify them as reliable for hydrogeodetic studies, a so-called hydrogeodetic benchmarks. Benchmarks are defined by investigating whether the GPS-observed daily vertical displacements are positively and significantly correlated with hydrological model, whose Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates are converted into model-predicted daily vertical displacements. Due to the complexity of the hydrospheric phenomenon, we propose that these correlations are considered at three different temporal scales, assumed a-priori as short-term, seasonal and long-term. First, the GPS-observed vertical displacements are decomposed using non-parametric wavelet decomposition and then, we correlate these decomposed displacements with high-resolution nested regional Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5), which is more reliable than global models and represents the spatial resolution of 12 km. We prove that GPS-observed displacements at benchmark points show high correspondence to the vertical displacements derived by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We then use these benchmarked points and invert the GPS-observed displacements into TWS fields for several European basins. We demonstrate that these TWS estimates exhibit consistent and interpretable spatial patterns and are better correlated at all three temporal scales with external datasets, such as climate indices, than TWS estimates derived from the conventional approach used to date. The research is crucial for future hydrogeodetic analyses that take a step forward towards daily temporal resolution of hydrosphere-related products.

How to cite: Klos, A., Springer, A., Lenczuk, A., Mielke, C., Mikocki, J., Kusche, J., and Bogusz, J.: A dataset of GPS-observed daily displacements for hydrogeodetic studies over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8623, 2025.

EGU25-8675 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Local sea level changes due to Greenland ice sheet mass changes from 1970 to 2100 

Konstanze Haubner, Natalya Gomez, Erica Lucas, Charlotte Rahlves, Kristin Richter, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, and Andreas Born

The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an increasing rate and is predicted to have a large contribution to sea level change by 2100. Future climate over Greenland, which determines the ice sheet’s surface melt and marine-terminating glacier retreat, represents a major source of uncertainty for Greenland ice sheet evolution (ISMIP6). In this study, we explore the Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level change from 1960 to 2100 and quantify how uncertainties in projected climate change and Earth rheological structure shape global and local sea level changes and their spatio-temporal variability.

Ice load history is provided by simulations following the ISMIP6 protocol. To project regional sea level changes, we employ two different gravitationally self-consistent sea level models. We use the pseudo-spectral sea level model described in Gomez et al. (2010). To test the sensitivity of projections to surface resolution and Earth structure, the experiments are repeated with the finite volume sea level model SEAKON (Latychev 2005) that includes 3D variations in Earth structure and grid refinement capabilities to reach ~5 km surface resolution over Greenland.

Results highlight the spatial variability of projected sea level for communities along the Greenlandic coastline, and contrast local changes to farfield sea level rise for Pacific Islands. With a spread of -1.00m to -2.96m sea level change by 2100 around Ilulissat, West Greenland, our results are up to three times the value provided by the NASA IPCC sea level tool (-0.8m) and emphasize the need for more studies addressing local sea level changes.

How to cite: Haubner, K., Gomez, N., Lucas, E., Rahlves, C., Richter, K., Nisancioglu, K. H., and Born, A.: Local sea level changes due to Greenland ice sheet mass changes from 1970 to 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8675, 2025.

EGU25-10069 | Posters on site | G3.4

Solid Earth response to climate change in Svalbard and South America using geodetic observations of hydrological loading 

Joëlle Nicolas, Alicia Tafflet, Jean-Paul Boy, Agnès Baltzer, and Jérôme Verdun

Global warming and other climate change influences are leading to major changes in the global hydrological cycle. The response of the Solid Earth to water mass transfers causes crustal deformations and gravity field temporal variations that can be monitored by space geodesy. It is challenging to identify the climate change signature contained in the time series and to separate the different contributions from various spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we use more than 20 years of GNSS and GRACE time series to analyse hydrological loading signal in two different areas that are highly sensitive to climate change. The Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic is one of the fastest warming locations in the world. We use seasonal analysis and comparison with satellite altimetry and in-situ datasets to distinguish current ice melting from the solid Earth’s response to past events (GIA, LIA). South America and the Amazon basin, home to some of the world’s largest rivers, have recently experienced severe drought and extreme floods. The hydrological loading shows huge annual variations superimposed on interannual variations linked to extreme events. It is therefore essential to use high-performance analysis methods to separate the part of the observed signals associated with climate change from the well-known seasonal trends. To assess their reliability and interpretation, the results are discussed in relation to complementary datasets and models.

How to cite: Nicolas, J., Tafflet, A., Boy, J.-P., Baltzer, A., and Verdun, J.: Solid Earth response to climate change in Svalbard and South America using geodetic observations of hydrological loading, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10069, 2025.

The Earth's surface undergoes deformations due to temporal variations in the distribution of atmospheric, hydrological and oceanic mass loads on the lithosphere. These deformations can be observed using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data where seasonal variations are particularly prominent in GNSS height time series.

While continental-scale water mass redistributions can be captured by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment/Follow On (GRACE/FO) or global hydrological models, surface water storage changes e.g. those caused by rivers and lakes cannot be resolved. However, GNSS timeseries may contain these small-scale surface water loading signals especially when located close to water bodies. Correctly representing such close-range, subgrid-scale loading signals is important for interpreting GNSS displacements, in particular when the goal is validating hydrological models.

In this study, we compiled daily time series from 326 GNSS stations jointly with water level observations along the Rhine river in the the Eifel area, North West Europe. The GNSS time series underwent careful post-processing including offset corrections and outlier removal. We identified a statistical relationship between the annual GNSS amplitudes and the stations' distance from the Rhine River. After applying blind source separation techniques, including Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and hydrological model-based corrections (using the Community Land Model version 5, CLM5, at daily resolution) to isolate large-scale common mode signals from the GNSS observations, the correlation between the residual GNSS signals and Rhine river level variations improved. We further inverted for regional elastic Earth parameters based on a half-space infinite elastic Earth model to estimate the surface water induced vertical displacements. The results demonstrated that surface water loading could account for a considerable fraction of the vertical displacement observed at GNSS stations near the riverbanks on daily to monthly timescales.

How to cite: Zhang, L., Karegar, M., and Kusche, J.: GNSS observations of the surface water storage-induced displacements in the Eifel area, NW Europe: the influence of the Rhine river, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10956, 2025.

EGU25-11444 | Posters on site | G3.4

Compressible vs. incompressible in glacial isostatic adjustment models: Does it matter? 

Rebekka Steffen, Holger Steffen, Pingping Huang, and Patrick Wu

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models provide estimates of velocity, gravity, stress, and sea-level change based on ice-loading scenarios from past glaciations. These models require extensive input, including ice histories and a variety of Earth model parameters that describe the 3D structure and rheology. Different assumptions can be made regarding material parameters, particularly in terms of compressibility, which is described by the Poisson’s ratio. Incompressible materials (Poisson’s ratio equal to 0.5) do not change volume under deformation. However, seismological observations indicate that the Poisson’s ratio in the lithosphere and mantle deviates from 0.5, typically being much smaller, which reflects the presence of compressible materials. Consequently, GIA models must account for compressibility in their material parameters as well as in the solved equations. Despite this, some GIA model codes consider only incompressible materials.

Here, we will show the effect of compressible versus incompressible Earth models on changes in sea level, velocity, gravity, and stress using a newly developed compressible finite-element code. The new GIA model code incorporates the sea-level equation with moving coastlines and rotational feedback, accounts for both grounded and floating ice, removes rigid-body rotation, and calculates deformation in the centre-of-mass frame. Importantly, this global-scale analysis, using the new code, is the first to explore how glacially induced stresses obtained from a spherical GIA model are affected by assumptions about compressibility.

How to cite: Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Huang, P., and Wu, P.: Compressible vs. incompressible in glacial isostatic adjustment models: Does it matter?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11444, 2025.

EGU25-13419 | Orals | G3.4 | Highlight

Geodetic Insights into Water Resources and Drought Dynamics in the Western United States 

Hilary R Martens, Zachary M Young, Donald F Argus, Matthew J Swarr, W Payton Gardner, Nicholas Lau, Adrian A Borsa, Zachary Hoylman, Qian Cao, Anna M Wilson, Ming Pan, Ellen Knappe, F Martin Ralph, Simone Puel, Alexander Berne, Mark Simons, and Yuning Fu

Developing a comprehensive understanding of global water resources – and their responses to extreme events and variations in climate – requires integrating diverse modeling and observational approaches across disciplines, with geodesy playing an increasingly integral role. Geodetic measurements and models, including those tracking solid Earth deformation caused by mass redistribution in the hydrosphere, provide key insights into water-cycle processes and systems. This study focuses on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from the western United States to examine recurring cycles of severe drought and rapid recovery over the past two decades. Interdisciplinary evidence from hydrology, meteorology, and geodesy suggests that these cycles are strongly associated with variability in the frequency and intensity of seasonal atmospheric rivers (ARs). During Water Year 2023, GNSS data revealed record-breaking water-storage gains in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains and Sacramento-San Joaquin-Tulare (SST) river basins, driven largely by an exceptional series of powerful ARs. In the six-month period between October 2022 and March 2023, water-storage gains in these regions surpassed those of any prior year in the analysis, which began in 2006, with an estimated 80% of the gains delivered by ARs. By early spring 2023, we infer that approximately half of the water-storage gains had infiltrated the subsurface, providing a critical water resource for downstream communities through processes such as mountain block recharge. Our analysis further shows that hydrological drought and recovery, based on GNSS estimates of total water-storage changes, respond more slowly to precipitation patterns than meteorological drought and recovery, highlighting the insulation of subsurface pools from surface fluxes. We find that years with heavy precipitation can help to sustain storage levels into subsequent years with less precipitation. Moreover, as geodetic observational accuracy improves, a deeper understanding of the assumptions, limitations, and opportunities inherent in our models is necessary. To assess the precision of GNSS-informed water-storage estimates, we compare results derived from independent GNSS position estimates and inversion techniques. Additionally, we provide updates on recent progress in developing community-available modeling tools and investigating the effects of 3-D heterogeneities in Earth structure on deformation responses to surface mass loading.

How to cite: Martens, H. R., Young, Z. M., Argus, D. F., Swarr, M. J., Gardner, W. P., Lau, N., Borsa, A. A., Hoylman, Z., Cao, Q., Wilson, A. M., Pan, M., Knappe, E., Ralph, F. M., Puel, S., Berne, A., Simons, M., and Fu, Y.: Geodetic Insights into Water Resources and Drought Dynamics in the Western United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13419, 2025.

EGU25-14180 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Modelling sea-level reconstructions from southern Greenland: Implications for glacially-induced faulting and the response of the ice sheet to the Younger Dryas cold interval 

Alexis Lepipas, Parviz Ajourlou, Glenn Milne, Lev Tarasov, and Sarah Woodroffe

Understanding the past evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is important for accurately simulating its future behavior and thus its contribution to global mean sea level rise. Data and models related to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have provided critical constraints on past GrIS evolution. These models are necessary to interpret a variety of data, including past sea-level changes and geodetic observations of current land motion and gravity changes. In all studies to date, paleo sea level data from southern Greenland have presented the greatest challenge to GIA models. Poor data-model fits in this region have led to the hypothesis of glacially-induced faulting  during periods of rapid ice loss (with associated tsunami hazard).

In this study, we seek to determine if quality fits to the southern Greenland relative sea level (RSL) data can be obtained by improving the GIA model and exploring the parameter space more fully than past efforts. Specifically, we consider two recent advancements in model development: new 3-D models of earth viscosity structure based on the joint inversion of regional geophysical datasets, and GrIS reconstructions output from a leading glacial systems model. The improved 3-D earth models result in a larger RSL fall compared to past 1-D earth modelling and so that amplitude of the measured signal can be accurately simulated at most sites in southern Greenland. However, the rate and timing of RSL fall are generally too late and too slow to match many of the mid-Holocene sea-level index points. We seek to improve this aspect of the model fits by varying the ice history model. A two-step approach is used: (1) manually adjust the timing and rate of ice retreat in a chosen model to identify if plausible variations in these aspects can capture RSL data, and (2) assuming (1) is satisfied, seek to produce a glaciologically consistent ice history by varying parameters within the glacial systems model (e.g., climate forcing). In this presentation, we will provide an update on the status of our sensitivity analysis and the implications for glacially-induced faulting and the ice sheet response to the Younger Dryas cold interval.

How to cite: Lepipas, A., Ajourlou, P., Milne, G., Tarasov, L., and Woodroffe, S.: Modelling sea-level reconstructions from southern Greenland: Implications for glacially-induced faulting and the response of the ice sheet to the Younger Dryas cold interval, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14180, 2025.

EGU25-14187 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Measuring drought impacts using a hybrid GNSS, InSAR, and GRACE joint inversion approach over California’s Central Valley 

Grace Carlson, Susanna Werth, and Manoochehr Shirzaei

California commonly experiences multi-year droughts, which are intensified due to groundwater pumping in the Central Valley, a region of extensive farmland relying heavily on irrigation to grow crops. These large water loss signals cause surface deformation and gravity variations measurable from space that have been the focus of numerous hydro-geodetic studies. Studies of surface deformation in the region dominantly either focus on the elastic loading and unloading response of the land surface to fluctuations in water mass, or alternatively, on aquifer system deformation driven by groundwater pumping. Because these two deformation signals are opposite in sign, there is an outstanding challenge to cohesively combine these processes in order to accurately assess changes in water storage at resolutions and uncertainties sufficient for water management applications.

Here, we present a unique joint inversion approach integrating observations of surface deformation from GNSS and InSAR that does not require the separation of elastic loading and poromechanical aquifer deformation. Instead, our approach aims to identify a best-fitting solution consistent with both overlapping processes to simultaneously solve for the groundwater storage and total terrestrial water storage (TWS) loss during the drought years of 2020 and 2021 in California. Our inversion approach is further constrained with large-scale terrestrial water storage anomalies observed by the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE- follow on (GRACE-FO). Results from our inversion show that we can achieve a high-resolution and more realistic estimate of TWS loss within the Central Valley than an inversion of GRACE-FO and GNSS elastic loading displacements provide, alone. Results also reveal a groundwater volume loss of 20.4 ± 2.6 km3 in the semi-confined to confined portion of the Central Valley aquifer-system, which agrees well with a conventional GRACE-FO-derived groundwater loss (27.7 ± 5.3 km3) when considering underlying processes and uncertainties. This work reveals the potential of geodetic observations in hydro-hazards research and shows that by integrating multiple measurement systems, we can isolate storage components, like groundwater, that are notoriously challenging to separate from other dynamics, providing  insights into hydrologic processes and anthropogenic impacts at a regional scale.

How to cite: Carlson, G., Werth, S., and Shirzaei, M.: Measuring drought impacts using a hybrid GNSS, InSAR, and GRACE joint inversion approach over California’s Central Valley, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14187, 2025.

Mass transfer between the cryosphere and oceans leads to sea-surface height and topography changes whose timescales, amplitudes, and spatial patterns are controlled by mantle viscoelasticity. This ‘glacial isostatic adjustment’ (GIA) can slow or halt retreat of unstable marine-based ice sheets since ice loss induces gravitational sea-surface lowering and bedrock rebound, reducing water depths around ice-sheet margins and lowering their exposure to melting by warm ocean currents. Despite widespread recognition of this solid Earth–ice-sheet feedback, it has often been assumed that Earth’s mantle is too viscous for GIA to have a measurable impact on ice-sheet dynamics over the next few centuries, with many ice-sheet models used in state-of-the-art intercomparison projects assuming either a rigid bed or millennial viscoelastic bedrock deformation timescales. However, GPS bedrock displacement timeseries suggest very low mantle viscosities exist beneath vulnerable regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (~1017–1019 Pa s), implying that bedrock elevations are responding to modern melting on annual-to-decadal timescales, i.e., fast enough to have significant impact on ice-sheet stability over the coming centuries. Interestingly, GPS-inferred viscosities obtained in the same regions, but from bedrock responses to longer-timescale (102 –105-yr) deglacial signals, are at ~10–100 times larger. This result suggests the low effective viscosities obtained for modern signals reflect the operation of transient deformation mechanisms. If confirmed, this transience would have major ramifications for our understanding of future Antarctic ice-sheet stability, since it would introduce a negative feedback whereby mantle viscosities and bedrock uplift rates scale with ice mass loss rates, limiting the speed of subsequent grounding line retreat.

 

Here, we first test whether observed loading-timescale-dependence of GPS-inferred mantle viscosities can be explained using experimentally constrained parameterisations of transient rock deformation across seismic to convective timescales. This analysis is carried out by calibrating these thermomechanical parameterisations for individual seismic tomographic models using both geophysical and experimental observations. Importantly, by adopting a probabilistic inverse method we evaluate parametric uncertainties and propagate them into our estimates of timescale-dependent 3D mantle viscosity. We find that transient and steady-state viscosities predicted by our optimal parameterisations can simultaneously explain the short- and long-timescale GPS signals recorded across the Antarctic Peninsula. Next, we integrate this thermomechanical structure into 1D transient and Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models to quantify the impact of this more complex rheology on rates of Antarctic bedrock uplift and relative sea-level change on deglaciation timescales ranging from years to millenia. Our results show that transient mechanisms have measurable impacts on all submillenial deglaciation timescales but are particularly pronounced over decadal-to-centennial intervals, producing up to ~50% more bedrock uplift and up to ~70% higher maximum uplift rates than steady-state counterparts. We conclude by presenting a thermomechanically self-consistent framework for integrating our calibrated ‘full-spectrum’ rheological parameterisations into coupled GIA–ice-sheet simulations that account for observed transient and 3D viscosity variations. We will present early results from these simulations that will ultimately enable the potential stabilising impact of transient rheology on Antarctic ice-sheet evolution to be quantified under different climatic forcing scenarios, improving projections of future barystatic sea-level change.

How to cite: Richards, F., Hazzard, J., and Lau, H.: Towards a Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Transient Mantle Rheology on Future Antarctic Ice-Sheet Stability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17315, 2025.

EGU25-17461 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Comparing hydrological models of different resolution to multiple high-precision terrestrial gravity time series at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany 

Anna Winter, Marvin Reich, Patricio Yeste, Laura Jensen, Ezequiel D. Antokoletz, Andreas Güntner, and Hartmut Wziontek

Hydrological monitoring methods usually observe water storage changes in specific depths or for a limited number of storage compartments only and are often representative for a small volume only. In contrast, gravity measurements are sensitive to mass changes as a spatially integrated signal. This makes them a valuable complementary tool for monitoring total water storage changes. The hydrological contribution to the time-variable gravimetric signal often plays a major role for the overall signal dynamics. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of understanding the influence of the local hydrological dynamics at many terrestrial gravity stations. Thus, advancing the hydrological corrections on gravity signals is highly valuable for improving the interpretation of gravity measurements with respect to other processes of interest, e.g., geodynamic, atmospheric or ocean-loading effects.

In this case study, we consider the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell (GOW), located in the river Regen catchment in a low mountain range in East Bavaria, Germany. Here, long-term stable records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs) are available at three different points at the observatory within a distance of about 200 meters. The time series are corrected for tidal, atmospheric and other non-hydrological effects as accurate as possible. Further, an extensive hydrological sensor network has been operated at GOW for more than a decade and compared with the gravimetric observations in previous studies.

We compare different hydrological corrections on the gravity time series, based on two regional and one local hydrology model as well as on in-situ data of soil moisture sensor profiles in the direct vicinity of the gravimeters. For the regional models we use the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ), implemented for the river Regen catchment with a spatial and temporal resolution of one kilometer and one day, respectively, and OS LISFLOOD (European Commission Joint Research Center) for the same catchment area and with 0.05° and one day spatial and temporal resolution, respectively. Both models are forced with national and global meteorological data sets. As a local model, we use a HYDRUS 1D (J. Simunek, et al., 2008) setup with finer resolved vertical layers and forcing from in-situ meteorological observations. Applying the different models to all three SG records provides insights on the efficiency of a small-scale versus a large-scale approach for hydrological corrections in view of the marked subsurface complexity and heterogeneity at GOW.

How to cite: Winter, A., Reich, M., Yeste, P., Jensen, L., Antokoletz, E. D., Güntner, A., and Wziontek, H.: Comparing hydrological models of different resolution to multiple high-precision terrestrial gravity time series at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17461, 2025.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (GFO) gravity observations have significantly improved models of the terrestrial water cycle globally. However, GRACE-assimilated models of terrestrial water storage still show differences amongst the models, and studies to determine their ability to predict the state of terrestrial water storage in different regions are ongoing. This paper uses Global Positioning System (GPS) data to assess two global GRACE-assimilated datasets: GLWS2.0 and CLSM-DA. From 2004 to 2019, the mean annual amplitude of water thickness of these datasets differs by more than 25 mm over 40% of the land area. Additionally, the models predict the timing of maximum water storage with difference in phase of 30-days across 50% of their domain. We compare the modeled hydrological loading vertical displacements predicted from these models with GPS uplift data as a measure of the model quality. We cluster 5,983 global GPS stations, each with at least three years of daily data, based on river basin borders. This segmentation allows for better detection of how hydrological conditions, e.g. precipitation patterns, soil characteristics, etc., and model calibration (applied in each river basin) influence the model-GPS agreement.    

Our comparison demonstrates that compared to GLWS2.0, CLSM-DA generally agrees better with GPS and GRACE data across more river basins. We find that the 100-300 mm larger annual water variation of CLSM-DA to GLWS2.0 accounts for CLSM-DA’s better agreement with GPS in Africa, Southeast Asia, and some parts of South America. For regions like the Western United States and Eastern Europe, where the two models propose a similar range of annual water variation, the 30-60 days phase delay of CLSM-DA improves its alignment with GPS. Our findings highlight the need for regional improvement in these models, particularly in areas where they significantly deviate from GPS observations of the terrestrial water variation.

How to cite: Abbaszadeh, M. and van Dam, T.: Assessment of two GRACE-assimilated terrestrial water storage datasets across 44 river basins using GPS observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18131, 2025.

EGU25-19166 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Daily Hydrologic Drought Assessment Using GPS: Improving Drought Management with the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI) 

Zachary Young, Hilary Martens, Zachary Hoylman, and W. Payton Gardner

Anthropologically, drought intensity is measured not by how strongly the rain falls over a few days but by how dry the land becomes over a specific period of time. The duration and intensity of this drying period, affects hydrologic pools (i.e. rivers, lakes, and groundwater) uniquely based on the characteristics of their respective drainage basins. Contrarily, drought management techniques currently rely heavily on meteorologically derived drought indices (e.g., the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), which offer valuable insights into the amount of water entering the system but provide no information about water retention levels. As such, currently only GPS-based drought indices provide direct characterization of hydrologic drought with both high spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. To assist in the retention of hydrologic resources, we present an update on the status of the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI). Our methodology advances those presented by Young et al, 2024. We leverage the availability of the data provided by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, and produce a framework which provides rapid US-GDI hydrologic drought assessment solutions with a latency of ~48 hours. Final solutions are expected within 10-14 days. Solutions for the full study period are calculated daily, with hydrologic load estimates, GDI evaluations between one day and 48 months, and step offsets in the vertical component updated daily. To assess the sensitivity of the US-GDI to hydrologic resources, we present an analysis of the correlation between US-GDI timescales and to stream discharge, surface-reservoir storage/elevations, and groundwater across specific hydrologic units across the United States. To facilitate the distribution of the results, we introduce a webpage which provides direct access to all solutions provided by the US-GDI (including both hydrologic loading estimates, and GDI time scale solution. The US-GDI represents an opportunity to significantly improve hydrologic resource preservation and maintenance during periods of sustained hydrologic drought.

How to cite: Young, Z., Martens, H., Hoylman, Z., and Gardner, W. P.: Daily Hydrologic Drought Assessment Using GPS: Improving Drought Management with the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19166, 2025.

EGU25-19469 | Orals | G3.4

Inferring consistent coordinate time series from reprocessed GNSS data (GIANT-REGAIN) to probe the solid Earth and its interactions in Antarctica 

Mirko Scheinert, Eric Buchta, Matt King, Terry Wilson, Achraf Koulali, Peter Clarke, Demián Gómez, and Eric Kendrick

For almost three decades, geodetic GNSS measurements have been used to infer bedrock displacement in Antarctica. However, until now Antarctic-wide studies have only been able to make use of a limited number of GNSS stations and have also been limited in time. Within the project GIANT-REGAIN (Geodynamics In ANTarctica based on REprocessing GNSS DAta INitiative), endorsed by the SCAR Expert Group GIANT and the SCAR Scientific Program INSTANT, for the first time geodetic GNSS data have been compiled for as many Antarctic bedrock stations as possible, covering the period from 1995 to 2021. The recordings include permanent and episodic observations at more than 270 sites. In order to provide a consistent and reliable analysis of these data, four processing centres have joined forces to reprocess the data. The background and the most important issues of the reprocessing will be reported. We will discuss the resulting coordinate time series in terms of their reliability and uncertainty, and their usability to infer displacement rates for subsequent analyses in Antarctic geodynamics, especially GIA. Thus, these coordinate time series will allow to investigate the Antarctic bedrock displacement pattern in much more detail than before. Inferring displacement rates will enable us to study deformation processes on different time and spatial scales, governed by the rheological properties of the Earth’s interior. This includes the response of the solid Earth on short time scales due to a weak upper mantle or the variability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Holocene which may lead to present-day subsidence.

The results of GIANT-REGAIN are discussed in a paper published in Earth System Science Data, and the data products are archived at PANGAEA and, thus, publicly accessible.

How to cite: Scheinert, M., Buchta, E., King, M., Wilson, T., Koulali, A., Clarke, P., Gómez, D., and Kendrick, E.: Inferring consistent coordinate time series from reprocessed GNSS data (GIANT-REGAIN) to probe the solid Earth and its interactions in Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19469, 2025.

EGU25-865 | ECS | Orals | G3.5

Temporal evolution of strain rate before the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo Earthquake.  

Conor Rutland, Lidong Bie, Jessica Johnson, Qi Ou, and Zoe Mildon

The development of geodetic tools, such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), has revolutionized our exploration of earthquake physics and the assessment of seismic hazard. Over the past 20 years, InSAR has been increasingly used to determine the interseismic strain rate across major seismogenic faults. Strain derived from geodetically mapped crustal deformation rates serves as an indicator of a fault’s earthquake potential, in alignment with classical elastic rebound theory. However, InSAR observation periods are often relatively short compared to much longer large earthquake recurrence intervals. This raises questions about how well geodetic strain rates represent the long-term strain accumulation on faults. It is therefore critical to understand how strain rate evolves during the interseismic period. 

We observe the interseismic period prior to the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo Earthquake: a left-lateral strike-slip earthquake that ruptured a slow-moving fault approximately 70 km south of the major block-bounding East Kunlun fault in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. Using six years of Sentinel-1 data, we explore the temporal evolution of strain rate over time. We derive eastward velocity and maximum shear strain rate for the six-year period prior to the Maduo earthquake, before segmenting the time-series and analysing strain rate with a two-year moving time window. Our results indicate that the geodetically derived strain rate may not be constant over the interseismic period, implying that strain may not accumulate at a fixed rate in the seismogenic crust. Additionally, strain rate on the seismogenic fault does not appear to accelerate prior to the Maduo earthquake, at least on the timescales resolvable by InSAR used in this study. 

How to cite: Rutland, C., Bie, L., Johnson, J., Ou, Q., and Mildon, Z.: Temporal evolution of strain rate before the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo Earthquake. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-865, 2025.

EGU25-2659 | Posters on site | G3.5

Crustal Deformation And  Seismic Hazard of Longmenshan Fault Zone With Limited Observations 

Qixin Wang, XIwei Xu, Jing Zhao, and Zaisen Jiang

The Longmenshan Fault Zone forms the eastern boundary of the Bayan Har Block in China and results from the block’s eastward movement being strongly resisted by the South China Block. In 2008, the Wenchuan earthquake ruptured the central-northern segment of the fault zone. Five years later, the Lushan earthquake struck the southern segment. The epicenters of these two events were approximately 90 km apart, with an unruptured section, known as the Dayi Gap, located between the two fault zones.

Previous research has explored the pre-earthquake deformation characteristics of the Longmenshan Fault Zone. However, due to sparse observational data prior to the Wenchuan earthquake, the resolution of fault locking state models was limited. This study addresses the issue of data sparsity by using the Least Squares Collocation (LSC) method to enhance the existing dataset, enabling a more detailed inversion of the fault’s pre-earthquake locking state. The results provide partial explanations for the co-seismic rupture patterns of the Wenchuan earthquake and show good agreement with the distribution of pre-Wenchuan earthquakes of magnitude 3 and above in the region. 

Based on the findings, future earthquakes are more likely to occur south of the Dayi Gap, with the fault potentially rupturing into the gap itself. Additionally, the results demonstrate that the LSC method can effectively densify sparse surface deformation data. While the resolution may not match that of inversions based on dense, high-quality observations, the method successfully identifies the main locked zones of the fault.

How to cite: Wang, Q., Xu, X., Zhao, J., and Jiang, Z.: Crustal Deformation And  Seismic Hazard of Longmenshan Fault Zone With Limited Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2659, 2025.

EGU25-4167 | ECS | Orals | G3.5

Geodetic data inversion to estimate a strain-rate field by introducing sparse modeling 

Yohei Nozue and Yukitoshi Fukahata

We observe active seismicity and crustal deformation in subduction zones. Since earthquake occurrences are closely related to strain accumulation, it is important to accurately estimate a strain-rate field. Many studies have estimated spatially continuous strain-rate fields from spatially sporadic geodetic data such as GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System). However, localized strain rates near fault zones have tended to be underestimated, because most studies have applied a smoothness constraint (e.g., Okazaki et al., 2021, EPS). To overcome this difficulty, we introduce sparse modeling into the estimation of a strain-rate field. In this study, for simplicity, we consider the anti-plane strain problem.

We firstly express a velocity field by the superposition of cubic B-spline functions. Then, considering that a strain-rate field is smooth in most areas but can change abruptly in a narrow zone such as a fault zone, we impose both the sparsity constraint and the smoothness constraint of strain rates, which are expressed by the L1-norm and the L2-norm of the second derivatives of the velocity field, respectively. The relative weights of these terms are specified by two hyperparameters; the optimal values of which are determined by using the leave-one-out cross-validation method. We obtain the optimal values of the expansion coefficients of the cubic B-spline functions by minimizing the objective function, which consists of the terms of data fitting, the sparsity constraint, and the smoothness constraint.

To investigate the validity and limitation of the proposed method, we conduct synthetic tests, in which we consider an anti-plane strain problem due to a steady slip on a buried strike-slip fault. As a result, we find: (1) regardless of the locking depth of the fault, the proposed method reproduces localized strain rates near the fault with almost equal or better accuracy than the L2 regularization method, which imposes only the smoothness constraint, (2) the advantage of the proposed method over the L2 regularization method is clearer when fewer observation points are available, and (3) the proposed method can be applied when observation errors are small.

Next, we apply the proposed method to the GNSS data across the Arima-Takatsuki fault zone, which is one of the most active strike-slip faults in Japan. The proposed method estimates about 1.0×10-8/yr faster strain rates near the fault zone than the L2 regularization method, which corresponds to a 20-30% greater strain-rate concentration. The faster and more concentrated strain rates result in the estimation of a shallower locking depth. Fitting the analytical solution to the estimated strain-rate profile, we obtain the optimal values of locking depth and steady slip rate as 11 km and 4 mm/yr for the proposed method, while 17 km and 5 mm/yr for the L2 regularization method. Since the former is closer to the depth of D90, 12-14 km (Omuralieva et al., 2012, Tectonophysics), above which 90% of earthquakes occur, this result suggests that the proposed method estimates a more realistic locking depth than the L2 regularization method.

How to cite: Nozue, Y. and Fukahata, Y.: Geodetic data inversion to estimate a strain-rate field by introducing sparse modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4167, 2025.

EGU25-4458 | ECS | Orals | G3.5

Combined automatic fault mapping and geodesy to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of tectonic strain across time scales: an application to the Afar rift (East Africa) 

Alessandro La Rosa, Pauline Gayrin, Sascha Brune, Carolina Pagli, Ameha A. Muluneh, Gianmaria Tortelli, and Derek Keir

Continental rift systems are characterised by spatial and temporal changes in the style (distributed vs. focused), location and mechanisms (magmatic vs. tectonic) of plate spreading. Understanding the long-term evolution of continental rift systems thus requires investigation of magmatic and tectonic processes across the spatial and temporal scales. However, this understanding is limited by relatively short temporal coverages of geophysical techniques and by spatially discontinuous geological datasets. Detailed maps of rift structures (i.e., tectonic faults), combined with independent geophysical and geological observations are key for a thorough view on the long-term evolution of strain during rifting.

In this study, we developed a novel method for the automatic extraction of faults and the calculation of time-averaged strains using Digital Elevation Models. We extended the Python-based Fault Analysis Toolbox (Fatbox) developed by Wrona et al. (2022) by implementing new filters, and building up a novel workflow for analysing fault-related deformation, such as the horizontal extension and the second invariant of strain. In Fatbox, the extraction of linear elements, such as faults, is performed through edge detection algorithms that can be applied on several type of data (e.g., seismic profiles, analogue and numerical models, and DEMs). Faults are then distinguished from noise using a normalized scale-dependent linearity filter that considers the area covered by linear elements. Dense displacement measurements are finally obtained at the scale of individual fault-scarp portions and converted to maps of strain or horizontal extension. A comparison with manually mapped datasets indicate that our method successfully resolves 93.4% of the total strain.

We applied this method to investigate a ~330 x 275 km-wide area in the Afar rift (East Africa), the locus of the spreading of Nubian, Arabian and Somalian plates. Rifting in Afar began approximately 31 Myrs ago after the impingement of a mantle plume, the eruption of flood basalts (Stratoid Series), and is currently accommodated along three main rift branches. The Stratoid series has covered fault scarps, which resets fault scarps and thereby provides an essential time marker for our strain analysis.

We combined our data with literature rock dating and geodetic measurements to reconstruct the evolution of the rift during the last 4.5 Ma and its relationship with tectonic and magmatic activity. We showed that the margins of the central Afar rift have been abandoned, and rifting processes have migrated toward todays axis where increased strain rates are likely due to magmatic emplacement. A northwest-directed increase of strain suggests a progressive migration of the rifting process in the same direction, responding to the Danakil block rotation. Conversely, the southern portion of Afar shows two systems of cross-cutting faults that respond to different co-acting tensional forces induced by the separations of the Arabian and Somalian plates from Nubia (Maestrelli et al., 2024).

References

Wrona, et al. (2022) Fatbox - Fault Analysis Toolbox, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.5.2022.002

Maestrelli, et al. (2024). Reconciling plate motion and faulting at a rift-rift-rift triple junction, Geology, 1–5, https://doi.org//10.1130/G51909.1

How to cite: La Rosa, A., Gayrin, P., Brune, S., Pagli, C., Muluneh, A. A., Tortelli, G., and Keir, D.: Combined automatic fault mapping and geodesy to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of tectonic strain across time scales: an application to the Afar rift (East Africa), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4458, 2025.

EGU25-4589 | Posters on site | G3.5

  Did the Mw 7.5 Sürgü-Cardak Event Occur During the 2023 Kahramanmaraș Sequence Without Prior Slip Deficit? 

Taco Broerse, Ali Değer Ozbakir, and Rob Govers

The Sürgü-Cardak fault ruptured ~9 hours after the Mw 7.8 mainshock on the East Anatolian Fault zone (EAFZ) during the 2023 Kahramanmaraș earthquake sequence. With a moment magnitude Mw 7.5, involving up to 11 m slip, this event featured comparable slip magnitudes as the mainshock. Published strain rate fields based on geodetic observations do show strain accumulation around the EAFZ, but strain accumulation around the Sürgü-Cardak fault appears to be absent. We therefore reexamine the GNSS-based interseismic strain rate field to see whether, or not, the Sürgü-Cardak fault accumulated significant slip deficit prior to the earthquake.

We use GNSS data from eastern Anatolia. To estimate strain rates and their uncertainties in regions that experience both fast and slow deformation rates, we employ a tailored stochastic interpolation technique. With this method we show that the strain rate peaks around the Sürgü-Cardak fault. To better interpret 2D strain rate fields around faults, we develop a novel decomposition of the strain rate tensor and its covariance, that allows us to estimate the strain rate in a fault-oriented frame. The decomposition method is analogous to descriptions of deformation in structural geology, and allows for direct comparison with slip types from focal mechanisms. Not only does the strain rate peak around the Sürgü-Cardak fault exceed the uncertainty, the direction of interseismic slip deficit accumulation is also compatible with the coseismic slip direction.

We conclude that interseismic slip deficit accumulation on the Sürgü-Cardak fault was previously missed. Coseismic slip is consistent with the loading history. The Sürgü-Cardak earthquake thus has most likely been triggered by the mainshock.

 

 

How to cite: Broerse, T., Ozbakir, A. D., and Govers, R.:   Did the Mw 7.5 Sürgü-Cardak Event Occur During the 2023 Kahramanmaraș Sequence Without Prior Slip Deficit?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4589, 2025.

The Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau develop one of the most complex active fault systems on Earth. GPS measurements and seismic data reveal that these fault systems drive present-day eastward crustal transport and clockwise rotation around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis. In this study, we investigate regional block rotation kinematics based on fault slip displacement, spacing, and the orientations of block-bounding strike-slip faults in the Hengduan Mountains. The results of block rotation rates, angles, and rotation radius are then comprehensively analyzed, combined with existing paleomagnetic, geodetic, and multi-timescale slip rate data. Our findings highlight the influence of the development of block-bounding faults and associated sub-blocks on regional block rotation deformation during the southeastward growth of the Tibetan Plateau. The Late Cenozoic block rotation of the Chuandian Block in the Hengduan Mountains exemplifies the transition from a single to a multi-block system, which has critically influenced the spatiotemporal distribution and rates of strike-slip faulting processes along block boundaries. Our study reveals the possible evolution processes of block rotation in regions dominated by large-scale strike-slip fault systems, such as the Hengduan Mountains in southeastern Tibet.

How to cite: Li, F., Willett, S. D., and Shi, X.: Multiscale Analysis of Fault Systems in the Hengduan Mountains: Implications for Block Rotation Processes in Southeastern Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5019, 2025.

EGU25-5285 | Posters on site | G3.5

Unraveling crustal deformation and seismogenic signatures in eastern Taiwan 

Ya-Ju Hsu, Hsin Tung, Horng-Yue Chen, Yu Wang, Yunung Lin, and Chi-Hsien Tang

Eastern Taiwan is located in the transition zone where the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the Yangtze plate along the Ryukyu Trench and collides with the continental margin along the Longitudinal Valley suture zone. These complex tectonic interactions have led to frequent and devastating earthquakes. The GNSS-acoustic measurements in the southernmost Ryukyu margin characterize an eastward growing convergence rate from 92 mm/yr offshore Hualien to 123 mm/yr near the Gagua Ridge, suggesting a capability of hosting Mw 7.5-8.4 earthquakes. Along the Longitudinal Valley, the east-dipping Longitudinal Valley fault and the west-dipping Central Range fault form a dual-verging conjugate suture zone. The GNSS velocities relative to the Yangtze plate generally decrease northwestward from the Coastal Range, through the Longitudinal Valley, to the Central Range. Along the Coastal Range, GNSS velocities range from 67 to 72 mm/yr between Taitung and Fengbin. This rate then drops significantly to approximately 38 mm/yr at Shoufeng and further decreases to 24 mm/yr near Hualien. The shortening rate between the east coast and the Longitudinal Valley decreases northward, from 30 mm/yr between Taitung and Guangfu to approximately 10 mm/yr near Hualien. Additionally, shallow crustal earthquakes along the east coast indicate a significant clockwise rotation of P and SH axes from convergence-parallel (N120˚) south of Fengbin to about (N140˚) near Hualien. The orientations of GNSS velocity exhibit a similar clockwise rotation of 10˚ from Taitung to Hualien as well. These observations suggest a spatial change in seismotectonic stress as approaching the junction between the subduction of the Ryukyu Trench and the collision of the Longitudinal Valley suture zone. A significant portion of the accumulated strain is likely accommodated by offshore faults near Hualien, as evidenced by frequent large offshore earthquakes and interseismic subsidence along the Hualien coast. Continuous investigation of GNSS interseismic velocity, seismic activity, the long-term uplift rates of marine terraces, and coseismic uplift during historic earthquakes are crucial for revealing the long-term seismic hazard of eastern Taiwan.

How to cite: Hsu, Y.-J., Tung, H., Chen, H.-Y., Wang, Y., Lin, Y., and Tang, C.-H.: Unraveling crustal deformation and seismogenic signatures in eastern Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5285, 2025.

A viscoelastic deformation cycle at subduction zones has been revealed following the surge of great megathrust earthquakes in the early 21st century. This cycle is broadly divided into inter-, co-, and post-seismic phases, constrained by deformation data collected before, during, and after these earthquakes. However, the framework for understanding the longer term earthquake-cycle process remains unclear, particularly from the early postseismic to the late interseismic phases, primarily due to the lack of observations covering these century-long periods.

Building on previous work, we have demonstrated that landward viscoelastic relaxation driven by megathrust locking is necessary to produce the long-wavelength late interseismic deformation patterns commonly observed at global subduction zones. Using the unique century-long leveling data combined with contemporary GNSS observations in southwest Japan, we further propose that a short-wavelength deformation emerges during the early interseismic phase, eventually evolving into a long-wavelength pattern.

Incorporating early postseismic offshore observations, we synthesize an updated earthquake-cycle framework featuring four detailed phases following a megathrust earthquake. This refined framework supports a general model capable of reproducing deformation patterns across all phases. The model underscores two fundamental processes common to different subduction zones and phases of the earthquake cycle: cyclical stick-slip behavior along the megathrust and associated landward-seaward viscous mantle flow.

As a further advancement, this model simulates continuous horizontal and vertical deformation in space and time, revealing three critical spatiotemporal data gaps at global subduction zones. By predicting deformation patterns at various subduction zones, including those vulnerable to global sea-level rise, the model provides valuable guidance for future instrumentation planning to fill the data gaps and offers insights into potential breakthroughs in addressing key challenges in earthquake-cycle research.

How to cite: Li, S.: Toward an Updated Earthquake-Cycle Framework at Subduction Zones: Evidence, Processes, and Implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5498, 2025.

EGU25-5995 | ECS | Orals | G3.5

Non-recoverable strain during the megathrust seismic cycle 

Hugo Boulze, Jean-Arthur Olive, Romain Jolivet, Bar Oryan, Luca Malatesta, and Jean-Didier Garaud

Upper-plate deformation during the subduction zone seismic cycle is classically modeled as elastic, assuming the only non-reversible strain occurs on the megathrust. However, recent geomorphological studies indicate a slow build-up of distributed deformation across the upper plate over hundreds of thousands of years, with a spatial distribution that bears similarities with the interseismic strain field (e.g., Meade, 2010; Saillard et al., 2017; Malatesta et al., 2021). This suggests that non-reversible strain somehow related to seismic cycle deformation accumulates over hundreds of cycles. Oryan et al. 2024 recently suggested that portions of the upper plate could be brought to brittle failure during the interseismic period, manifesting as diffuse seismicity. Extrapolating the cumulative displacements due to this seismicity over many cycles further yielded patterns of surface uplift consistent with geomorphological observations, and correlating with the megathrust locking state. It did not, however, explicitly tie the occurrence of brittle failure to the rheological properties of the upper plate.

In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that the accumulation and release of elastic deformation between and during earthquakes can produce unrecoverable deformation, leaving a distinct signature in subduction relief. We use the commercial finite element code Zset (http://zset-software.com/) to simulate multiple cycles of loading and unloading of a wedge-shaped upper plate domain imparted by interseismic megathrust locking and coseismic slip. We model the upper plate as a Bingham elasto-visco-plastic material where irreversible viscous deformation can be activated wherever a certain yield stress threshold is exceeded. This typically occurs over the area where the megathrust transitions from fully locked to fully creeping during the interseismic phase. As a result, small increments of irreversible strain accumulate at each cycle, which manifests as persistent surface uplift above the downdip end of the locked portion of the megathrust. We perform a parametric study to examine the relationships between relief development, the plastic strength of the upper plate, and the coupling state of the megathrust. This provides a blueprint for assessing how locking patterns may become encoded in subduction landscapes, and how persistent these patterns may be.

How to cite: Boulze, H., Olive, J.-A., Jolivet, R., Oryan, B., Malatesta, L., and Garaud, J.-D.: Non-recoverable strain during the megathrust seismic cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5995, 2025.

EGU25-7187 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

A New Global Database of Secular Horizontal GNSS Velocities 

Guo Cheng, Corné Kreemer, Elliot Klein, Zachary Young, Donald Argus, and Geoffrey Blewitt

Steady-state secular motions of the Earth’s surface (i.e., motions not influenced by transient processes such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions) reflect plate boundary interseismic strain accumulation, plate motions, post-glacial rebound, sea-level rise, or dynamic topography. Over the past three decades, the expansion of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks has densified the number and spatial coverage of station position and velocity observations with improved measurement accuracy. In this study, we focus on horizontal motions and aim to create the most up-to-date, spatially dense velocity field. We gather secular velocities at ~35000 unique GNSS stations distributed globally, covering both tectonically active and stable regions. Roughly 18000 velocities are determined at the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) from time-series of mostly continuous GNSS observations. However, the spatial coverage of the NGL velocity solution suffers from the absence of available RINEX (Receiver Independent Exchange Format) data in places such as most of the India-Eurasia collision zone. We therefore compile about 17000 additional continuous and campaign GNSS velocities from ~400 published studies and transform these auxiliary velocities onto the NGL velocity solution through a least-squares inversion. For several large earthquakes with sufficient GNSS observations (e.g., 2004 M9.1 Sumatra, 2011 M9.1 Tohoku, 2010 M8.8 Maule, and others), we correct GNSS time-series and auxiliary velocities for postseismic viscoelastic deformation using forward modeling based on a gravitational spherical Earth with a 1D rheological structure. For other earthquakes, we correct the GNSS time-series by removing the postseismic time-series fitted by an empirical logarithmic function. Additionally, we develop and apply a velocity outlier detection and removal algorithm to generate our final global velocity database. Our velocity field is an update to the compilation from the 2014 Global Strain Rate Model (GSRM) and greatly extends the scope of existing global velocity solutions. Our new database will be used to produce the next GSRM and to provide a starting velocity field for future integration with InSAR analysis.

How to cite: Cheng, G., Kreemer, C., Klein, E., Young, Z., Argus, D., and Blewitt, G.: A New Global Database of Secular Horizontal GNSS Velocities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7187, 2025.

EGU25-8451 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

Slip Rate Variation Along the East Kunlun Fault (Tibet) From InSAR & GNSS Observations 

Pengfei Yu, Xuejun Qiao, and Wei Chen

The strike-slip faults of the Tibetan Plateau plays a crucial role in understanding the response of the continental lithosphere to the ongoing India-Eurasia collision and associated deformation. However, the slip rate along the East Kunlun Fault, particularly its eastern segment, remains contentious. In this study, we combine ascending and descending Sentinel-1A InSAR data with GNSS measurements to derive a high-resolution velocity field spanning from the Tuosuo Lake segment to the Maqin-Maqu segment of the East Kunlun Fault. We then apply a 2D elastic dislocation model (Savage and Burford, 1973) in conjunction with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to invert the fault slip rate. Our results reveal that the slip rate in the Tuosuo Lake segment of the East Kunlun Fault is 6.6–8.1 mm/yr, while in the section extending from Tuosuo Lake to the Anyemaqen Mountain, it ranges from 4.4 to 4.9 mm/yr. In the compressional step-over region at Anyemaqen Mountain, the slip rate decreases to 2.7 mm/yr. Further to the east, the slip rate gradually decreases from 4.7–5.9 mm/yr to 2.7 mm/yr in the Maqin-Maqu segment. The slip rate along the East Kunlun Fault exhibits a non-monotonic decrease from west to east, likely influenced by the uplift of Anyemaqen Mountain and the contribution of secondary faults on the southern flank of the fault system.

How to cite: Yu, P., Qiao, X., and Chen, W.: Slip Rate Variation Along the East Kunlun Fault (Tibet) From InSAR & GNSS Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8451, 2025.

EGU25-9208 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

Range-Parallel Extension in the Argentinian Andes: The 2020 Mw 5.7 Humahuaca Earthquake   

Simon Orrego, Juliet Biggs, and Sam Wimpenny

Normal-faulting earthquakes in mountain ranges are key for studying the dynamics of mountain building. Two styles of high mountain extension have been observed: range-perpendicular and range-parallel. To date, range-parallel extension has only been reported in southern Tibet, limiting our ability to test different models for its dynamic cause. Here, we investigate a new example of range-parallel extension: the 2020 M5.7 Humahuaca earthquake in the Andes of Argentina. We combine InSAR time-series and body-waveform seismology to constrain a source model for the earthquake and show it ruptured a new fault that cross-cuts Neogene fold-thrust belt structures and accommodates pure range-parallel extension. The hypocentre lies ∼70 km west of the Andes range front at 5 km depth. Thrust-faulting earthquakes on the Andes range front adjacent to Humahuaca have slip vectors parallel to topographic gradients and are oblique to Nazca-South America relative motion, consistent with the pattern expected for crustal flow in response to gravitational potential energy contrasts. Interseismic GPS velocities, however, are oblique to the range front and topographic gradients. These velocities may be accommodated by range-parallel shear, with normal faulting at Humahuaca potentially occurring in the step-over of a strike-slip fault or due to clockwise rigid block rotation, although geomorphic evidence is lacking. Notably, we do not see evidence for widespread ‘lateral escape’ in the Andes, as proposed for southern Tibet. In conclusion, range-parallel extension in the Andes may be the result of crustal flow under gravity or back-arc strike-slip faulting. Both models indicate the potential for moderate-magnitude earthquakes within the Eastern Cordillera, which are an overlooked source of seismic hazard .

How to cite: Orrego, S., Biggs, J., and Wimpenny, S.: Range-Parallel Extension in the Argentinian Andes: The 2020 Mw 5.7 Humahuaca Earthquake  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9208, 2025.

EGU25-10106 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

Decoding Earthquake Cycles: Plate convergence rates shape recurrence intervals in Subduction Zones  

Sayak Ray, Bhaskar Kundu, Batakrusna Senapati, and Arun K. Singh

Megathrust earthquakes at subduction plate interfaces have been extensively investigated, with their quasi-repetitive nature well recognized, yet their long return periods and sparse historical records complicate global assessments of this regularity. Slow earthquakes occurring in the brittle-to-ductile transition zone demonstrate a complex interplay with large subduction earthquakes, though their roles in triggering or delaying significant events remain poorly understood. The periodicity of slow earthquakes, characterized by recurrence intervals ranging from months to years, has facilitated the creation of comprehensive seismic and geodetic event catalogues. Here, we investigate the behaviour of slow earthquakes and megathrust ruptures using integrated constraints from natural observations, numerical simulations under the rate and state friction model and laboratory-based experimental results. Focusing on the best instrumentally monitored and mature subduction zones, namely, Cascadia and Nankai, we identified a depth-dependent pattern in slip periodicity and a corresponding increase in cumulative tremor counts downdip from the trench. Our numerical simulations suggest a logarithmic dependency between recurrence time and loading velocity, consistent with the depth dependency of the tremor activities and associated slip-periodicity observed in these subduction zones. Moreover, the long-term aseismic slip distribution patterns of these subduction zones match with the model-predicted displacements for the corresponding loading velocities, which never exceed the down-dip plate motion at these subduction zones. Laboratory experimental results validate the link between recurrence time and loading velocity, establishing a connection between recurrence time and force drop as well. Further, analysis of seismic data of slow and megathrust earthquakes across major subduction zones worldwide underscores a consistent logarithmic inverse relationship between the recurrence times of these events and plate convergence rates. Our numerical simulation results and stick-slip laboratory experiment observations complement the naturally observed logarithmic behaviour of both megathrust and slow earthquakes. Integrating these insights from natural observations, numerical modelling, and experimental data, we finally argue a possible stress transfer mechanism from the slow earthquakes source zone to the adjacent megathrust earthquake segments and suggest that the slow earthquakes can be used as a possible proxy or “stress-meters” for large megathrust earthquakes and probably modulate the megathrust earthquakes in the seismogenic zone. Understanding the interplay between slow and megathrust earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and enhances our ability to identify regions at risk of large seismic events and improve mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Ray, S., Kundu, B., Senapati, B., and Singh, A. K.: Decoding Earthquake Cycles: Plate convergence rates shape recurrence intervals in Subduction Zones , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10106, 2025.

EGU25-11377 | Posters on site | G3.5

Geodetic strain pattern analysis of northern-central Greece – Correlation to tectonically active structures 

Ilias Lazos, Junyi Wang, Guoyan Jiang, Sotirios Sboras, Jonathan Bedford, Christos Pikridas, and Spyridon Bellas

The central-northern part of Greece (Northern Thessaly and Macedonia) is part of the active geodynamic regime of the Aegean (Eastern Mediterranean), occupied by numerous on land and offshore active tectonic structures. These are represented mostly by E–W to NE–SW striking normal dip-slip fault zones, documenting a dominant N-S to NW-SE oriented extensional stress field. Many of these structures are related to instrumentally recorded seismic events: the July 20, 1978 (Mw6.5) Thessaloniki, the December 21, 1990 (Mw6.0) Goumenissa, the May 13, 1995 (Mw6.5) Kozani – Grevena, and the March 3, 2021 (Mw6.3) Elassona – Tyrnavos earthquakes are typical cases of normal faulting. Our objective is to calculate crustal strain and link it to specific tectonic structures.

The strain estimation is based on satellite geodetic monitoring (GPS/GNSS) and the analysis of recorded raw data. With a rate of 30 s in a 24/7 operation, a dataset of 24 stations during a 7-year period of continuous monitoring (2008 – 2014) is compiled.

Regarding the geodetic data processing, it involves i) the triangulation method which combines geodetic data of three stations each time for calculating certain strain parameters (maximum horizontal extension, minimum horizontal extension, maximum shear strain and area strain) on each triangle barycenter (approximately, 150 different triangles were constructed for the study area), ii) the “VISR” method which is a Fortran-based code producing an interpolation scheme, and iii) a micro-blocking model for which the second invariant of strain rates is calculated.

Comparing the results of these methodologies, two distinct areas are highlighted: the western-central part, where low to medium values are documented, and the eastern part, which is characterized by higher values. The higher values can be related to active structures, documented in both areas; however, it is worth focusing on the eastern part, where the higher values are observed. Two major active faults/fault zones are noted: the E – W, dip-slip normal antithetic faults of Mygdonia basin, related to the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake, the NW – SE dip-slip normal antithetic faults of Strymon basin and the E – W, oblique-slip Kavala-Xanthi fault zone. No recent seismic events are linked to these structures, while additionally the high strain rates indicate the potential strain charge. Moreover, it is worth noting that all structures above are adjacent to the North Aegean Trough, which is one of the most active strictures globally, as it is the prolongation of the North Anatolian fault in the Aegean Sea, and therefore they are directly affected.

How to cite: Lazos, I., Wang, J., Jiang, G., Sboras, S., Bedford, J., Pikridas, C., and Bellas, S.: Geodetic strain pattern analysis of northern-central Greece – Correlation to tectonically active structures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11377, 2025.

EGU25-13084 | Orals | G3.5

A Thin and Weak Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) Beneath the Oceanic Lithosphere and its Effects on Subduction Earthquake Cycle Deformation  

Tianhaozhe Sun, Kelin Wang, Jiangheng He, Fumiaki Tomita, Takeshi Iinuma, Ryota Hino, Motoyuki Kido, and Yusaku Ohta

Numerous high-resolution seismological and magnetotelluric observations depict a sharp and distinct Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) at the base of oceanic lithosphere, in some cases beneath the subducting slab. Many lines of evidence indicate ponding of partial melts at the LAB. A melt-rich oceanic LAB is expected to have a low viscosity to affect plate motion, subduction, and earthquake deformation. Therefore, it is important to seek direct geodetic evidence for the rheological weakness of the LAB and its effects on deformation. Here we summarize our recent progress in finding the evidence. (1) Immediately after several recent large subduction earthquakes (e.g., the 2011 Mw=9 Tohoku-oki and the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule) in the Japan-Kuril and Chile subduction zones, GNSS observations show enhanced landward motion (ELM) of coastal areas 100s of km outside the rupture area. Using 3-D viscoelastic finite element models, we explained the postseismic ELM in terms of mechanical decoupling of the subducting slab from the underlying asthenosphere due to a low-viscosity LAB (Sun et al., 2024). The ELM observation is thus considered the first geodetic evidence for a weak LAB beneath subducting oceanic lithosphere. Assuming a thickness of no more than 10 km for the LAB, key characteristics of the observed ELM can be explained to first order by an LAB viscosity of no more than 5e16 Pa s, lower than typical mantle viscosities by 2-3 orders of magnitude. (2) In a more detailed investigation of the postseismic deformation following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, constrained by extraordinarily dense onshore and offshore (seafloor GNSS/Acoustic) geodetic measurements, we find that both near-field deformation and the more distant ELM can be optimally explained by having a thin (~5 km) and low-viscosity (~5e16 Pa s) LAB down to a depth of ~120-150 km. Our geodesy-based research adds a new dimension to the geophysical studies of the LAB and contributes to understanding the origin, spatial distribution, and consequence of the ponded partial melts.

Sun, T., Wang, K., & He, J. (2024). Geodetic signature of a weak lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary in postseismic deformation of large subduction earthquakes. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 630, 118619, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2024.118619

How to cite: Sun, T., Wang, K., He, J., Tomita, F., Iinuma, T., Hino, R., Kido, M., and Ohta, Y.: A Thin and Weak Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) Beneath the Oceanic Lithosphere and its Effects on Subduction Earthquake Cycle Deformation , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13084, 2025.

EGU25-13626 | ECS | Orals | G3.5

Investigating continental-scale deformation and fault coupling in northern central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras) using Sentinel-1 InSAR  

Beatriz Cosenza-Muralles, Cécile Lasserre, Giorgio Gomba, Francesco De Zan, Charles DeMets, Marianne Métois, and Hélène Lyon-Caen

Tectonic deformation in northern Central America, driven by the interactions between the Cocos, Caribbean, and North America plates, is accommodated by the Motagua and Polochic left-lateral faults, grabens located south of the Motagua Fault, the Middle America subduction zone, and right-lateral faults along the Middle America volcanic arc. Major earthquakes associated with these faults include the 1976 MW 7.5 Motagua and the 2012 MW 7.5 Champerico events.

To investigate current deformation in this setting, we employed a permanent and distributed scatterers (PSDS) InSAR technique (Adam et al. 2013; Ansari et al. 2018; Parizzi et al. 2020), using Sentinel-1 radar images (2017-2022) along two ascending and two descending tracks covering most of Guatemala, El Salvador and western Honduras. The resulting time series, corrected for tropospheric and ionospheric phase delays, and solid earth tides, are referenced to GNSS data and decomposed into one linear term, dominated by tectonics, and two seasonal terms. 

We present the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity fields for the linear term, highlighting spatial variations across key faults. To emphasize the added value of InSAR compared to GNSS, we decompose the LOS velocity fields into horizontal and vertical components. We use the Bstrain code (Pagani et al. 2021), based on a Bayesian inversion method using a transdimensional approach, to interpolate the GNSS velocity field to align with the InSAR data resolution, providing a probability density function of GNSS north and east velocities, their median values and azimuths. The horizontal component of the InSAR velocity field is computed using these azimuthal directions or as an eastern component, assuming that the northern component is constrained solely by GNSS. 

Our results show good agreement with GNSS data and associated elastic block models for the region (Ellis et al., 2019; Garnier et al., 2021), highlighting (1) the North America and Caribbean plates' relative motion, accommodated primarily by the Motagua fault and secondarily by the Polochic fault, (2) east-west extension of the Caribbean plate (3) right-lateral slip along the Mid-America volcanic arc. Additionally, the unprecedented high resolution InSAR data uncovers a ~40 km-long creeping section along the Motagua fault. We discuss the along-strike creep variations relative to local geology and the slip distribution of the 1976 earthquake. InSAR data also helps investigate how extension is partitioned across multiple active structures in the Caribbean plate’s wedge. Finally, the InSAR velocity fields reveal velocity variations along the coast, previously unresolved by GNSS, suggesting coupling variations along the subduction interface.

Adam, et al. (2013). Proc. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Symp., doi:1857-1860.10.1109/IGARSS.2013.6723164

Ansari, et al. (2018). IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2018.2826045

Ellis, A., et al. (2019). Geophys. J. Int. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz173

Garnier, B., et al. (2021). Geosphere. https://doi.org/10.1130/GES02243.1

Pagani, C., et al. (2021). Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB021905

Parizzi, A., et al. (2020). IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. doi:10.1109/TGRS.2020.3039006 

How to cite: Cosenza-Muralles, B., Lasserre, C., Gomba, G., De Zan, F., DeMets, C., Métois, M., and Lyon-Caen, H.: Investigating continental-scale deformation and fault coupling in northern central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras) using Sentinel-1 InSAR , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13626, 2025.

EGU25-14112 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

Role of elastic variations in the interseismic deformation of the Andean subduction margin: case of study at 21°S 

Denisse Leal, Andrés Tassara, Marcos Moreno, and Sebastián Barra

In recent years, numerous studies have focused on quantifying the variation of surface deformation to obtain estimates of interseismic locking and thus identify areas of high seismic risk. However, most of these works have used plate models with homogeneous physical properties.

In this study, heterogeneous plate models have been developed considering the geometry of the profile at 21°S in northern Chile, where a shortening of the deformation in the Andean backarc is observed. Variations in elastic and viscous properties have been incorporated into the different models to evaluate their effect on the propagation of the interseismic deformation observed at the surface.

The results indicate that heterogeneities in the areas near the plate interaction zone play a crucial role in surface deformation. Using real data showing an increase in bulk and shear modulus with depth, higher near-field deformation and lower far-field deformation are observed compared to a homogeneous viscoelastic model.

This study highlights the importance of incorporating heterogeneities in interseismic deformation models, as these can provide a better fit to surface measured deformation patterns and thus improve interseismic locking estimates.

How to cite: Leal, D., Tassara, A., Moreno, M., and Barra, S.: Role of elastic variations in the interseismic deformation of the Andean subduction margin: case of study at 21°S, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14112, 2025.

EGU25-15361 | Posters on site | G3.5

The vertical postseismic deformation following the 2004 Parkfield earthquake 

Weijie Tan, danan dong, and junping Chen

Studies have shown that the postseismic transient following the 2004 Parkfield earthquake is dominated by aftersllip. However, the studies are mainly focus on the horizontal deformation and ignore the vertical deformation. The focus of this study is the postseismic deformion in vertical caused by 2004 event. We examine the time series of 20 near San Andreas fault CGPS stations in the vicinity of the Parkfield segment to infer the time-dependent postseismic slip. We firstly use the time series to derive an afterslip distribution model for the Parkfield earthquake using only horizontal components, and compare the model’s agreement with the measured vertical deformation. The results show the migration of groundwater is the main reason for the vertical postseismic deformation.

How to cite: Tan, W., dong, D., and Chen, J.: The vertical postseismic deformation following the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15361, 2025.

EGU25-16704 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

Towards a 3D Earthquake Cycle Model Powered by Data Assimilation for Northeastern Honshu 

Celine P. Marsman, Femke C. Vossepoel, and Rob Govers

In this study, we seek to quantify bulk viscoelastic flow, afterslip and locking, within a rheological framework that ensures a consistent formulation of strain accumulation and release throughout the entire earthquake cycle. To achieve this, we use Bayesian inference in the form of an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) to estimate geodynamic model parameters. In our earlier study, we successfully reproduced both interseismic and postseismic observations for the Tohoku margin including the 2011 earthquake using a 2D model (Marsman et al. 2025). Building on these insights, we extend our analysis to a 3D configuration.

We construct a 3D finite element seismic cycle model. We incorporate a priori information into the model, including a realistic geometry of slab and overriding plate, the temperature field, multiple asperities, and the observed coseismic slip distribution of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The model has a steady-state power-law rheology. Away from asperities, different parts of the megathrust respond by power-law viscoelastic relaxation, simulated by a thin low-viscosity shear zone, or instantaneous slip. By assimilating observations of 3D surface deformation, we constrain power-law flow parameters for both the asthenosphere and the megathrust. Specifically, we estimate the pre-exponent factor and the activation energy of the mantle wedge and oceanic mantle, as well as the pre-exponent factor and stress power of the shear zone using ESMDA.

We assimilate 3D GNSS displacement time series spanning from 1997 onwards. Preliminary results with actual GNSS data indicate that power-law flow parameters can be retrieved remarkably well and are consistent with estimates from laboratory experiments. The trade-off between the pre-exponent factor and activation energy hinders their individual estimation but does result in a well-constrained viscosity structure. Consistent with our 2D models, our 3D results demonstrate that enhanced landward motion near the rupture zone occurs postseismically without the need for a separate low-viscosity sub-slab layer. Instead, the release of elastic stresses accumulated interseismically beneath the oceanic plate significantly contributes to the observed offshore postseismic landward motion near the trench on the overriding plate.

How to cite: Marsman, C. P., Vossepoel, F. C., and Govers, R.: Towards a 3D Earthquake Cycle Model Powered by Data Assimilation for Northeastern Honshu, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16704, 2025.

EGU25-16972 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

Numerical modelling of stresses and deformation in the Eurasian tectonic plate through Bayesian inversion 

Renato Gutierrez Escobar and Rob Govers

We use a 2D mechanical model in the context of Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of driving and resistive forces to observed stress directions and GNSS velocities in the Eurasia plate. Plate boundary tractions will be dependent on the relative velocity of the bounding plates. The finite element model includes major fault zones and viscoelastic geological provinces following Hasterok et al. (2022). Horizontal gravitational forces from lateral variations of gravitational potential energy are derived from the density model of Fullea et al. (2021). We use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample fault resistive shear tractions, viscosities, and magnitudes of horizontal gravitational forces, mantle convective tractions, and plate interaction tractions with adjacent plates. We discuss first results of marginal distributions of fault slip rates and rakes, vertical axis rotation rates, and horizontal stress magnitudes.

How to cite: Gutierrez Escobar, R. and Govers, R.: Numerical modelling of stresses and deformation in the Eurasian tectonic plate through Bayesian inversion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16972, 2025.

EGU25-17060 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.5

How do plate boundaries talk to each other in North Sulawesi, Indonesia? 

Nicolai Nijholt, Rob Govers, and Wim Simons
Fault interactions are associated with stress transfer. In many tectonic settings the actual extent of stress transfer and thus interaction is poorly understood, especially on the time scale of the seismic cycle. The tectonic setting in North Sulawesi hosts two major fault systems that are closely tied: the Minahassa subduction interface connects directly to the strike-slip Palu-Koro fault. Both these seismogenic interfaces have also generated tsunamis. Through 20+ years of GNSS monitoring, two events of fault interactions have been recorded. The first event is the notion of increased relative motion across the Palu-Koro fault following the 1996 Mw7.9 Minahassa subduction earthquake [Walpersdorf et al. 1998]. The second event is the notion of transient slip accumulating to Mw6.7 on the Minahassa subduction interface following the 2018 Mw7.5 Palu-Koro strike-slip earthquake [Nijholt et al. 2024].
 
We seek to understand the mechanical coupling across the tectonic system in North Sulawesi through numerical finite element models. The manner in which tear faults connect to subduction interfaces at depth is unknown. We define the geometry by taking the Slab2.0 [Hayes et al. 2018] topology of the Minahassa slab and abutting it against the Palu-Koro fault at its western termination. We drive deformation kinematically to investigate whether a strike-slip earthquake on the Palu-Koro fault can generate slip on the subduction interface. In particular, we seek to determine whether varying the viscosity of the fault zones at depth and mantle wedge can explain the slip ‘delay’ at the Minahassa interface; observations indicate that the slow slip peak activity occurred 340 days after the 2018 earthquake in an event that took over 10 months.
 
 

Hayes, G.P., Moore, G.L., Portner, D.E., Hearne, M., Flamme, H., Furtney, M., Smoczyk, G.M., 2018. Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model. Science 362 (6410), 58–61. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4723.

Nijholt, N. Simons, W.,Riva, R., Efendi, J. Sarsito, D., Broerse, T., 2024. Triggered and recurrent slow slip in North Sulawesi, Indonesia, Tectonophysics, 10.1016/j.tecto.2024.230416, 885, (230416)

Walpersdorf, A., Vigny, C., Subarya, C., Manurung, P., 1998. Monitoring of the Palu- Koro Fault (Sulawesi) by GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (13), 2313–2316.

How to cite: Nijholt, N., Govers, R., and Simons, W.: How do plate boundaries talk to each other in North Sulawesi, Indonesia?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17060, 2025.

EGU25-18246 | ECS | Orals | G3.5

Partial coupling in low-seismicity subduction areas: an example of the western Makran subduction zone 

Alireza Sobouti, Sami Samiei-Esfahany, Mohammad Ali Sharifi, Amir Abolghasem, Abbas Bahroudi, and Anke Friedrich

Geodetic imaging of interseismic coupling in subduction zones enhances our understanding of seismic potential and hazard assessments, particularly in low-seismicity regions where tectonic risks may be underestimated or remain unrecognized. This study focuses on the Western Makran Subduction Zone (WMSZ), where the Arabian plate converges with the Eurasian plate. The WMSZ shows no significant thrust events at shallow depths, with most seismicity occurring at intermediate depths within the downgoing plate. Our approach begins with isolating the interseismic deformation signal, through an InSAR time series analysis method that targets the estimation and filtering of atmospheric effects. Then we utilize the corrected deformation rates to estimate the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling in the (WMSZ). This approach employs Bayesian inference for modeling interseismic coupling without imposing rigid smoothing constraints, allowing for improved model flexibility to capture localized variations in coupling distribution. The results reveal a partially locked zone in the WMSZ, notably at intermediate depths (35-40 km) beneath the southern Jazmourian plain. This area coincides with a cluster of moderate-magnitude earthquakes observed at approximately 40 km depth. Furthermore, pre-event coupling was detected in the region affected by the Mw 5.1 earthquake of March 5, 2024 (Fanuj). The presence of dip-elongated partially locked zones suggests the potential existence of local asperities along the subducting slab at intermediate depths, which may have significant implications for seismic hazard assessment in the WMSZ. These findings provide a basis not only for understanding the seismic potential in WMSZ but also offer insights applicable to other subduction zones, advancing methodologies that enhance geodetic monitoring and risk assessment in tectonically similar environments.

How to cite: Sobouti, A., Samiei-Esfahany, S., Sharifi, M. A., Abolghasem, A., Bahroudi, A., and Friedrich, A.: Partial coupling in low-seismicity subduction areas: an example of the western Makran subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18246, 2025.

EGU25-967 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

 Satellite-based Framework for River Discharge Estimation: A Hybrid Approach Integrating Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Altimetry Data  

Ceren Y. Tural, Koray K. Yilmaz, and Angelica Tarpanelli

Rivers are a critical component of the global water cycle, serving as dynamic pathways for freshwater flow and storage. However, global discharge data is limited, particularly in regions with sparse in-situ measurements. This study introduces a hybrid modeling framework that leverages advanced satellite observations combined with machine learning and deep learning algorithms to estimate river discharge.The framework combines Sentinel-2 optical imagery, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and satellite altimetry data from Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6 leveraging their complementary strengths. The input variables for the model include total water surface area and water indices derived from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, while satellite altimetry provides water level time series. Sentinel-1 effectively compensates for the limitations of optical sensors under cloudy conditions. Moreover, satellite altimetry data are particularly evaluable in areas where lateral water expansion is constrained by topography and SAR or optical are unable to detect variations. The hybrid model, combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Random Forest Regression (RFR), estimates river discharge with satellite-derived measurements. In effort to account for varying river morphologies, reach boundaries and river centerlines from the SWOT River Database (SWORD) are incorporated, ensuring robust adaptability to diverse conditions.The model is calibrated and validated against in-situ measurements on corresponding dates, using in-situ discharge data from the Mississippi River (USA), Kizilirmak River (Türkiye), and Po River (Italy). Designed to achieve high accuracy across diverse climatic and topographical settings, the proposed framework offers a scalable solution for estimating river discharge. By integrating satellite observations with a hybrid methodology, this approach has significant potential for enhancing global hydrological assessments. 

How to cite: Tural, C. Y., Yilmaz, K. K., and Tarpanelli, A.:  Satellite-based Framework for River Discharge Estimation: A Hybrid Approach Integrating Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Altimetry Data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-967, 2025.

EGU25-1200 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Enhanced Water Level Monitoring for Small and Complex Inland Water Bodies Using Optical and SAR Retrievals 

Kwanghee Han, Seokhyeon Kim, Rajeshwar Mehrotra, and Ashish Sharma

Monitoring water levels in lakes and reservoirs forms a critical component of sustainable water resource management, particularly in regions where direct measurements are costly, time consuming or impossible. Traditionally, ground-based sensors are used as the primary means of water level observation. In recent past, remote sensing has emerged as a vital alternative for areas that are inaccessible, have sparse monitoring infrastructure or located in the transboundary regions. However, recent studies have highlighted limitations in temporal resolution required for immediate responses to water-related conflicts. We present here a novel methodology for enhancing the temporal resolution of water level time series derived from altimetry satellites by integrating data from other satellite types, such as optical (Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2) and SAR (Sentinel-1), particularly for small and complex inland water bodies. Our approach leverages DEM-driven water masks with 1-meter intervals to systematically calculate reflectance values at various elevation levels, identifying water levels based on the most significant reflectance differences. Unlike static methods with fixed thresholds, our methodology dynamically adjusts thresholds according to regional and temporal variations, ensuring greater accuracy and adaptability. To mitigate the limitations of optical data, such as cloud coverage during the wet season, we integrated SAR data as a further enhancement to the developed approach. We tested this methodology on four reservoirs in South Korea—Chungju, Andong, Daecheong, and Juam—representing diverse hydrological characteristics. The results demonstrated significant improvements in the accuracy of water level estimation, even for highly variable and small water bodies. Further, the proposed method shows robustness across multiple satellite datasets while effectively addressing data gaps, providing a scalable and globally applicable framework for advancing water level monitoring.  The approach underscores its potential to enhance hydrological assessment and water management, particularly in under-monitored regions.

How to cite: Han, K., Kim, S., Mehrotra, R., and Sharma, A.: Enhanced Water Level Monitoring for Small and Complex Inland Water Bodies Using Optical and SAR Retrievals, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1200, 2025.

EGU25-2834 | Orals | HS6.4

Introducing New Radar Altimetry Products from Sentinel-3 for Inland Water Monitoring 

Carlos Yanez, Florian Wery, Beatriz Calmettes, and François Boy

Remote sensing techniques are crucial for a continuous and comprehensive monitoring of inland waters. In particular, recent advances in satellite radar altimetry have allowed the observation of an increasing number of small and medium-sized lakes and reservoirs, even in complex topographies. The advent of nadir radar altimeters operating in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mode has significantly improved the resolution of observations in the along-track direction, from several kilometers in conventional pulse-limited altimeters to hundreds of meters in close-burst altimeters when applying unfocused SAR (UFSAR) processing, as is the case in the Sentinel-3 satellite constellation.

Inversion methods for estimating geophysical parameters, such as Lake Water Level (LWL), from the backscattered altimetry signal are commonly called retrackers. These retrackers can be empirical, such as the widely used OCOG method or physics-based, i.e.  a background waveform model is derived from the theoretical knowledge of the microwave scattering process and then fitted to the backscattered signal received on-board. Several retrackers of the second type have been developed for processing conventional radar observations, such as the Brown-type models, and also for UFSAR observations in the case, for example, of the SAMOSA model. However, one of the limitations of physics-based retrackers concerns the assumption that the radar footprint is completely covered by water, as is the case for the ocean. This assumption, which applies to large lakes, starts to degrade the accuracy of the retrieved geophysical parameters when monitoring smaller water bodies. For this reason, a retracker based on numerical simulations tailored to UFSAR observations was proposed for inland waters [1]. This latter model has the advantage of taking into account a priori knowledge of the lake contour (for example, the Prior Lake Database [2]), and, thus, only the in-water areas of the radar footprint contribute to the simulated waveform. A preliminary assessment of the performance of this retracker solution indicated a LWL accuracy better than 10 cm in most of the lakes [3].

Considerable effort has been put into making that retracker robust enough to generate demonstration altimetry products for the hydrological community. These Level-2 products, expected to be available in the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem in early 2025, cover the entire Sentinel-3 mission time period (both A and B satellites) and provide information on more than 1200 lakes worldwide. This work will present the physical retracker basis and methodology, as well as the content and format of these new radar altimetry products, ready for use by scientific users. Finally, an extensive comparison with in-situ data will be performed to characterize the expected accuracy, with a special focus on time series for some specific lakes.

 

[1] Boy, F., et al., 2021. Improving Sentinel-3 SAR mode processing over lake using numerical simulations. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 60, 1-18.

[2] Wang, J., et al., 2023. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission (SWOT) Prior Lake Database (PLD): Lake mask and operational auxiliaries. Authorea Preprints.

[3] Yanez, C., et al., 2023. Performance Assessment of Lake Water Level Estimation from Sentinel-3 SAR Data over 1000 Lakes and Reservoirs Worldwide. 2023 IEEE IGARSS, 2870-2873.

How to cite: Yanez, C., Wery, F., Calmettes, B., and Boy, F.: Introducing New Radar Altimetry Products from Sentinel-3 for Inland Water Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2834, 2025.

EGU25-4299 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Estimation of water storage changes in a tropical lake-floodplain system through remote sensing 

Thijs de Klein, Victor Bense, and Syed Mustafa

Tropical lowland lake-floodplain systems are increasingly threatened by climate change effects and other human-induced pressures. Determining the effect of these pressures on the water balance is challenging because of a lack of hydrological monitoring data, which impedes water management decisions. A collection of optical remote sensing and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) scenes is used in combination with supervised classification algorithms and topographical data to derive lake volumes for the period 1984–2023, which are analyzed for trends and correlation with satellite-derived climate data. Although lake volumes show strong interannual variability, no significant historical trend is identified. A precipitation response time of approximately two months is observed, suggesting a considerable contribution of groundwater to the lake’s water balance. Minimum lake volumes found for the period 2014–2017 coincide with a prolonged period of below-average precipitation, indicating the effect of decreased groundwater recharge. Dry season lake volumes show weak correlation with cumulative precipitation in comparison to rainy season lake volumes, further indicating the importance of groundwater inflow for the dry season water balance. Results suggest that climate change effects and anthropogenic activities may have little short-term impact on the lake’s dry season volume, while altering groundwater recharge may have more significant long-term effects.

How to cite: de Klein, T., Bense, V., and Mustafa, S.: Estimation of water storage changes in a tropical lake-floodplain system through remote sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4299, 2025.

Satellite altimetry data has become essential for studying the dynamics of water bodies, especially in regions with limited or inaccessible data. Traditional low-resolution mode (LRM) satellites’ accuracy cannot be guaranteed when it comes to assessing water levels in small- (< 200 m in width) and medium-sized (200–800 m in width) rivers. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) altimeters, exemplified by Sentinel-3 A, have shown great potential for inland water altimetry. Nevertheless, developing algorithms to retrack the raw data remains an essential requirement in this context. This is attributed to the width of small-sized rivers, which is often narrower than the along-track resolution of both LRM and SAR altimeters. In addition, new altimeters may have long revisit cycles and different spatial coverage and cannot yield historical data necessary in some situations.
To address these challenges, this study proposed a conditional threshold retracker (CTR). The CTR algorithm is well-designed and facilitates accurate water level monitoring. Moreover, we proposed an enhanced footprint filter (EFF), thus significantly bolstering the number of available cycles. Our findings demonstrate that the developed method substantially enhances the temporal and spatial resolution of both LRM and SAR altimetry satellites during water level monitoring in rivers of different climate types. The width of the thirteen selected rivers is on the order of 85–630 m. The CTR significantly improved the water level monitoring accuracy by 68 %– 78 %. Furthermore, the EFF increased the number of water level cycles by approximately 49 %–68 %. These findings have practical implications for obtaining accurate water level data, estimating river discharge and improving hydraulic model calibration.

How to cite: Hu, X.: Improving water level monitoring in small to medium-sized rivers: An enhanced footprint filter-based conditional threshold retracker approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4658, 2025.

Satellite nadir altimetry has been a powerful technique for understanding oceans and seas over the past few decades. However, over rivers and small inland water bodies it produces noisy observations, which can result in gaps or erroneous measurements in water level time series. In this study, we aim to identify and correct anomalous measurements through reprocessing at the Level 1B (L1B) stage of the satellite altimetry processing chain.

To this end, we first detect abnormal waveforms that lead to anomalous water level measurements by analyzing various parameters related to the satellite's altimeter like AGC parameter and tracker range, and also waveform shape features. These waveform features include the number and location of peaks, noise level, kurtosis, centre of gravity, and peakiness. Abnormal waveforms are identified through an analysis of the distribution of these features.

While previous studies focused solely on L2 measurements to retrack multi-peak and noisy waveforms, we propose a robust strategy to regenerate abnormal waveforms within the L1B SAR processing chain by eliminating unwanted backscattered power. This approach incorporates the Fully-Focused Synthetic Aperture Radar technique into the L1B processing chain, dividing the illumination time into smaller stacks comprising multiple beam looks.

Due to factors such as antenna side lobe gain, wide antenna footprints, and environmental unevenness, some beam looks may exhibit undesired patterns. Our proposed approach addresses this issue by comparing the power of individual stacks with an analytically-derived reference waveform and assigning weights to each stack based on their similarity to the reference waveform. This reduces the impact of unwanted components in the final waveform and enables the regeneration of detected abnormal waveforms for inland waters.

We applied the proposed method to Sentinel-3A, Sentinel-3B, and Sentinel-6MF measurements over 6 lakes and reservoirs of various sizes and validated the results against in-situ data. The validation demonstrates that the water height time series obtained from regenerated waveforms match significantly better with in-situ measurements. Specifically, the accuracy of the water level time series, measured in terms of RMSE, improved by around 60% for the selected case studies after applying retracking on newly generated waveforms.

How to cite: Sneeuw, N., Khalili, S., Tourian, M. J., Elmi, O., Engels, J., and Sörgel, U.: Recovering noisy measurements over inland water bodies by regenerating L1B SAR altimetry waveforms using a segment-weighted Fully-Focused - Synthetic Aperture Radar (swFF-SAR) processing scheme, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5134, 2025.

EGU25-6403 | Orals | HS6.4

Operational forecasting model of the prevention and accumulation river basin Modrac 

Omer Kovčić, Božidar Deduš, Draženka Kvesić, Ratko Ramuščak, and Emina Jahić

The Modrac Reservoir is a reservoir located mostly in the municipality of Lukavac, although it also touches the outskirts of the cities of Tuzla and Živinica. The Modrac Dam was built in 1964 on the Spreča River, which simultaneously formed the reservoir of the same name, with the main purpose of securing the necessary quantities of water for production processes of industrial capacities in the area of ​​the municipalities of Lukavac and Tuzla.

Multi-purpose reservoir Modrac is a key water management facility of special importance for the life of the population, industry and tourism of the Tuzla Canton and as such for the entire Tuzla Canton but also BiH represents an inestimable value that requires special treatment, permanent investment and quality maintenance and management. By applying modern technologies used for operation and management of multi-purpose reservoirs and associated hydroelectric power plants, it is possible today to manage such water management systems in the most efficient way, to the benefit of all participating factors. Along with water supply and tourism, one of the key purposes and functions of the Modrac reservoir is flood protection in downstream areas.

This paper will present an operational prognostic local model of the Spreča River, which includes the Spreča River basin from its source to the Karanovac hydrological station. The developed local hydrological prognostic model of the river Spreča was created with a total of 6 sub-basins, the total size of the modeled basin is about 1,900 km2.

In the subject hydrodynamic model, a total of more than 180 km of watercourses were modeled as 13 river sections, 2 Q2D branches and 8 connecting channels within the Q2D sections. The geometry of the modeled sections is defined with approximately 230 cross-sections.

The subject paper will present the calibration of the hydrological and hydrodynamic model of the Spreča River for the associated catchment up to HS Karanovac, for water levels and flows, and was carried out for the period 2020-2023. Based on the prognostic model, a prognostic system for predicting floods in real time was created, which will also be presented in this paper.

The local operating system of the Spreča River, as well as other systems managed by the Agency for the Sava River Water Area, are compatible with the prognostic system developed in Croatia, which enables a simple exchange of input data.   

Keywords: Modrac reservoir, Spreča river, hydrological-hydrodynamic model, prognostic model, operational system, flood forecasting

How to cite: Kovčić, O., Deduš, B., Kvesić, D., Ramuščak, R., and Jahić, E.: Operational forecasting model of the prevention and accumulation river basin Modrac, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6403, 2025.

EGU25-6660 | Orals | HS6.4

Water budget closure assessment of 18 various basins combining GRACE and altimetry data 

Julien Lefebve, Sylvain Biancamaria, Alejandro Blazquez, Simon Munier, and Elena Zakharova

The water balance equation describes the exchange of water mass between land, ocean and atmosphere. Being able to close the water balance gives confidence in the ability to model and/or observe spatio-temporal variations in the water cycle and its components. At basin scale, the water balance equation (DTWS = P - ET - Q) compares derived total water storage (DTWS) with precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff (Q). Many studies compare GRACE-based DWTS observations with P and ET datasets, and Q from Land Surface Model (LSM), due to the lack of in situ discharge observations. For some basins, human activities, glacier, reservoir and lake impact on the water cycle is not or poorly modeled by the LSM. In this case, the water budget may close due to compensation errors, for example between Q and ET.

In this study, we propose to evaluate the consistency of budget closure with Q computed from satellite altimetry data, which might have better accuracy than discharge from LSM. We will use the altimetry-based discharge products from the ESA CCI river discharge project (https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/river-discharge/), recently available. DTWS is evaluated from the CNES GRACE-GRACEFO L3 dataset. This dataset is an ensemble of 120 different solutions combining the state-of-the-art in terms of GRACE L2 data and corrections. The spread within the ensemble aims to cover the uncertainty in DTWS estimates. The dataset has a monthly resolution of 1 degree.

In order to evaluate the best combination of datasets to close the water balance, we will use more than 15 precipitation datasets using the FROGS database (https://frogs.ipsl.fr/) and more than 8 evapotranspiration datasets (GLDAS, ERA5-Land, GLEAM, SynthesizedET, SSEBop, MOD16, BESS V2, FLUXCOM). This ensemble-based approach will also enable to assess the dispersion of these precipitation and evaporation data for each basin. We evaluate the budget closure using different metrics (NSE, KGE, RMSD etc…) at 18 basins of different climate, latitude and size over 2002 to 2019.

Finally, we will compare the 18 water budget closures with those obtained with discharge computed from LSM, like GLDAS or ISBA/CTRIP, to assess the benefits of using altimeter-based discharge for the water budget closure.

How to cite: Lefebve, J., Biancamaria, S., Blazquez, A., Munier, S., and Zakharova, E.: Water budget closure assessment of 18 various basins combining GRACE and altimetry data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6660, 2025.

EGU25-7377 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Toward a global scale runoff estimation through satellite observations: the STREAM model  

Francesco Leopardi, Luca Brocca, Carla Saltalippi, Jacopo Dari, Karina Nielsen, Peyman Saemian, Nico Sneeuw, Mohammad Tourian, Marco Restano, Jérôme Benveniste, and Stefania Camici

Climate change is significantly transforming familiar environments and affecting daily life. In this context, continuous monitoring of river discharge in space and time is crucial for planning human activities related to water use, preventing or mitigating losses due to extreme flood events, and reducing the effects of water scarcity.  

Conventional in-situ monitoring stations have limitations such as low spatial density, incomplete time coverage and delays in data availability. These challenges hinder continuous spatio-temporal monitoring of river discharge. In response, researchers and space agencies have developed innovative satellite-based approaches to estimate runoff and river discharge using only satellite observations. In this perspective, the European Space Agency (ESA) has supported the STREAM (SaTellite-based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping) and STREAM-NEXT projects, which integrate satellite data on precipitation, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, altimetric water levels, and snow cover into a simplified hydrological model, STREAM, to provide long-term independent global-scale gridded runoff and river discharge time series. 

The STREAM model has been applied to over 40 river basins globally, including some of the largest such as the Mississippi-Missouri, Amazon, Danube, Murray-Darling, and Niger. It has demonstrated a strong capability to replicate observed river discharge even in heavily human-impacted basins where flow is regulated by dams and reservoirs. In addition, the model has shown its efficiency in simulating runoff and river discharge in Arctic basins (e.g. Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon) where flows are controlled by glacier melt, and in small basins where the spatial resolution is still too coarse to describe the characteristics of the basins accurately.  

The positive results obtained have paved the way for regionalizing the parameters of the STREAM model to make it applicable on a global scale. Through the calibration of the STREAM model across the 40 pilot catchments, it was possible to obtain a large set of parameters that were linked, through specific relationships, to various features including climate, soil characteristics, vegetation and topographic attributes. This approach yielded regionalized STREAM parameters. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of the STREAM runoff and river discharge estimates, derived from regionalized parameters, across a diverse range of basins. To this end, a comparative analysis will be conducted between observed and simulated river discharge, as well as between simulated and modeled land surface runoff estimates.  

This work aims to highlight how the use of readily available data, analyzed using a conceptual regionalized hydrological model, can improve the estimation of river discharge and the development of runoff maps, even in basins where complex interactions between natural processes and human activities prevail. 

How to cite: Leopardi, F., Brocca, L., Saltalippi, C., Dari, J., Nielsen, K., Saemian, P., Sneeuw, N., Tourian, M., Restano, M., Benveniste, J., and Camici, S.: Toward a global scale runoff estimation through satellite observations: the STREAM model , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7377, 2025.

EGU25-7758 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

Stage-discharge rating curves using satellite radar altimetry 

Liguang Jiang and Yanan Zhao

River discharge is a fundamental quantity that is required to improve our understanding of the hydrological cycle and to inform flood, drought, and water resources management (Gerten et al., 2008; Rajsekhar and Gorelick, 2017; Rao et al., 2020). Discharge monitoring plays a vital role in detecting climatic and environmental change because discharge is an integrated variable reflecting the coevolution of many processes within a basin (Hansford et al., 2020). However, ground-based measurements of discharge are often expensive and not available for many rivers globally. Therefore, spaceborne measurements are pursued as alternatives. 

Recent studies have proposed various methods based on hydraulic equations to estimate discharge from multiple remotely sensed variables, such as water surface elevation (WSE), river width, and slope (Durand et al., 2016). However, such methods generally demand instantaneous observations of several variables. Some other methods rely on one single variable, such as width, WSE, or raw signal reflectance, provided that in-situ discharge data are available to build empirical relationships. 

One widely used approach involves stage-discharge rating curves. Like ground-based methods, these curves estimate discharge by relating river stage (water level or WSE) measured by altimetry to discharge values previously recorded at gauging stations. This approach is straightforward to implement. This study leverages the power of Sentinel-3 altimetry to augment discharge estimates at the global scale. 

We aim to achieve this through two key objectives:

  • Developing a global network of rating curves: We will create a comprehensive dataset of stage-discharge rating curves using Sentinel-3 altimetry data.
  • Investigating key influencing factors: We will investigate how river characteristics impact the reliability of these curves. Understanding these factors is crucial for optimizing their effectiveness.

How to cite: Jiang, L. and Zhao, Y.: Stage-discharge rating curves using satellite radar altimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7758, 2025.

EGU25-8247 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

SAEM: Satellite Altimetry-based Extension of global-scale in situ river discharge Measurements 

Peyman Saemian, Omid Elmi, Molly Stroud, Ryan Riggs, Benjamin M. Kitambo, Fabrice Papa, George H. Allen, and Mohammad J. Tourian

Accurate river discharge monitoring is essential for understanding hydrological processes, yet the availability of in situ measurements is increasingly limited due to a declining number of operational gauges and temporal gaps in gauge records. Satellite altimetry offers a robust alternative to address these limitations. Here, we introduce the Satellite Altimetry-based Extension of the global-scale in situ river discharge Measurements (SAEM) dataset, which integrates data from multiple satellite altimetry missions to estimate river discharge and enhance global hydrological monitoring networks. Our analysis evaluated 47,000 discharge gauges and successfully derived height-based discharge estimates for 8,730 gauges, expanding the coverage of current remote sensing datasets by a factor of three. These gauges collectively represent approximately 88% of the globally gauged discharge volume. The SAEM dataset achieves a median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.48, demonstrating superior performance compared to existing global datasets.

In addition to discharge time series, SAEM offers three supplementary products: (1) a catalog of Virtual Stations (VSs) with metadata, including geographic coordinates, altimetry mission details, distances to discharge gauges, and quality flags; (2) for VSs with quality-controlled discharges, we provide IDs from L3 databases such as Hydroweb.Next (formerly Hydroweb), the Database of Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters (DAHITI), the Global River Radar Altimeter Time Series (GRRATS), and HydroSat, and for VSs without corresponding time series in these L3 products, we have generated water level time series (SAEM WL) as an additional product; (3) rating curves that map water levels to discharge using the Nonparametric Stochastic Quantile Mapping Function approach. The SAEM dataset can enhance hydrological research, support water resource management, and allow addressing complex water-related challenges in the context of a changing climate.

How to cite: Saemian, P., Elmi, O., Stroud, M., Riggs, R., Kitambo, B. M., Papa, F., Allen, G. H., and Tourian, M. J.: SAEM: Satellite Altimetry-based Extension of global-scale in situ river discharge Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8247, 2025.

EGU25-8312 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4 | Highlight

TransFuse: Advancing Frequent Flood Monitoring using Vision Transformers and Earth Observation 

Antara Dasgupta, Paul Christian Hosch, Rakesh Sahu, and Björn Waske

The increasing availability of Earth Observation (EO) satellites equipped with active microwave sensors suitable for flood mapping has improved flood monitoring capabilities. However, current observation frequencies still fall short of adequately characterizing inundation dynamics, particularly during critical moments such as the flood peak or maximum inundation extent. This limitation represents a significant research challenge in flood remote sensing. Advances in multimodal satellite hydrology datasets, coupled with the deep learning (DL) revolution, offer new opportunities to address the frequency gap in flood observations. TransFuse presents a scalable data fusion framework that combines DL with EO data to achieve daily, high-resolution flood inundation mapping. This proof-of-concept study highlights the potential of Vision Transformers (ViT) to predict flood inundation at the spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 (S1) imagery. The approach integrates time series data from coarse but temporally frequent datasets, such as soil moisture and precipitation from NASA’s SMAP and GPM missions, with static predictors like topography and land use. A ViT model was trained using flood maps derived from S1 imagery processed by a Random Forest Classifier, allowing the prediction of high-resolution flood inundation. Additionally, a classical UNET convolutional neural network (CNN) was used as a benchmark to compare model performance. Two case studies were used to evaluate this methodology: the December 2019 flood event in southwest France at the confluence of the Adour and Luy rivers, and the Christmas floods of 2023 on Germany’s Hase River. Predicted high-resolution flood maps were validated against independent flood masks derived from S1 images outside the training dataset. Results demonstrate that both ViT and CNN-UNET models effectively generalize the hydrological and hydraulic relationships that drive flood inundation, even in areas with complex topographies. Notably, the ViT model outperformed the CNN, achieving approximately 20% higher accuracy in both case studies. Further testing in diverse catchments with varying land-use, hydrology, and elevation profiles is recommended to assess model sensitivity under differing conditions. The proposed methodology can revolutionize flood monitoring by enabling daily observation of spatial inundation dynamics. This capability could support the development of improved parametric hazard re/insurance products, helping to address the flood protection gap faced by vulnerable populations worldwide.

How to cite: Dasgupta, A., Hosch, P. C., Sahu, R., and Waske, B.: TransFuse: Advancing Frequent Flood Monitoring using Vision Transformers and Earth Observation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8312, 2025.

In recent years, advancements in radar altimetry, particularly the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) approach, have revealed fine-scale features over coastal ocean and inland waters. SWOT mission has offered unprecedented details and accuracy in observing the nuance of water surface gradient since its launch at the end of 2022. It provides a great opportunity to monitor the ungauged rivers and waterbodies timely and repeatedly. This study aims to utilize SWOT L2 Lake and Pixel Cloud products to monitor multiple lakes, ponds, and reservoirs in Taiwan. In our fieldwork consisting of 14 small ponds and 12 major reservoirs, it has been verified that the surface height and its temporal changes could be observed by SWOT at an accuracy of submeter level during cycles 3-26. After our reprocessing by clustering of pixel clouds within the predefined water masks, the accuracy can be further improved to <10 cm level. It is concluded that SWOT offers an alternative view of hydrological parameters, which can play a critical role in future water resources management.

How to cite: Tseng, K.-H.: Monitoring Surface Water Bodies in Taiwan by SWOT Lake And Pixel Cloud Products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8839, 2025.

EGU25-9406 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

Surface water expansion due to increasing water demand on theLoess Plateau 

Yao Liu and Xianhong Xie

Land surface water bodies are important to ensure water security for agricultural, industrial, domestic, and environmental sectors. Especially in dryland areas, such as the Loess Plateau in China, changes in land surface water bodies as a response to climate change and human activities have been the subject of great concern. Many dams and reservoirs have been constructed on the Loess Plateau to combat serious soil erosion and water resource shortages. These projects are widely recognized as an effective measure to enhance soil conservation, but little is known about the dynamics of surface water bodies. In this study, we employ a long-term satellite water product to detect the spatial-temporal variability in surface water at the regional scale on the Loess Plateau and identify the potential cause of climate change and human activities. The results show that the area of permanent water has increased by approximately 800 km2 during the past two decades. Surface water expansion is primarily associated with small water bodies (< 1 km2), as their number has roughly doubled, while the number and area of large water bodies have remained stable. We found that surface water expansion has little correlation with precipitation variation but is highly correlated with water withdrawal for agricultural, industrial, and other sectors. Thus, the surface water expansion on the Loess Plateau is primarily contributed by hydraulic project construction as a response to the increasing water demand. The above findings imply the positive role of hydraulic projects, but it is essential to note that the continuous expansion of surface water might not be sustainable because of constraints from natural conditions.

How to cite: Liu, Y. and Xie, X.: Surface water expansion due to increasing water demand on theLoess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9406, 2025.

EGU25-10012 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

Leveraging SWOT data to analyze river hydrodynamic and coastal interactions during extreme events: A case study of the Po river 

Farid Kurdnezhad, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Angelica Tarpanelli

The interaction between rivers and coastal water bodies is critical to hydrological and ecological systems, particularly under the accelerating impacts of climate change. This study investigates the hydrodynamics of the Po river and its interactions with the Adriatic Sea during extreme events such as backwater effects during floods and saline intrusion during droughts. Using high-resolution data from Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, integrated with in situ measurements, detailed LiDAR datasets, and a hybrid 1D-2D modeling approach in HEC-RAS, the research advances understanding of river-coast dynamics and their responses to climate-induced pressures.

The SWOT satellite, launched in December 2022, employs cutting-edge Ka-band Radar Interferometry (KaRIn) technology. The mission provides a variety of hydrological products for the surface water dynamics, with a revisit cycle of 21 days. For the inland rivers, the products include high-accuracy observations of water surface elevation, width, and slope, over a 120 km swath, allowing for improved rating curves and flow duration analysis. Stretching over 650 kilometers and flowing through eight Italian regions, the Po river is a lifeline for the northern region.

HEC-RAS is used to simulate riverine and floodplain dynamics, combining the computational efficiency of 1D modeling for long river reaches with the spatial detail of 2D modeling in areas with complex flow patterns, such as floodplains and river-coast interfaces. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) provide the foundation for defining cross-sectional profiles and updating hydraulic geometry, enabling precise representation of terrain and channel morphology.

The research follows a multi-phase methodology: SWOT data are processed to derive water surface elevations and extents, validated using in situ measurements and compared with HEC-RAS simulations. The study emphasizes extreme conditions, quantifying backwater effects during high flows and the severity of saline intrusion under low-flow scenarios. The integration of SWOT data with the HEC-RAS model allows for a detailed analysis of hydrodynamic processes, supporting the development of risk prediction models and improving water resource management strategies.

How to cite: Kurdnezhad, F., Domeneghetti, A., and Tarpanelli, A.: Leveraging SWOT data to analyze river hydrodynamic and coastal interactions during extreme events: A case study of the Po river, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10012, 2025.

EGU25-11436 | Orals | HS6.4

The River Discharge Climate Change Initiative precursor project 

Sylvain Biancamaria and Laetitia Gal and the CCI River Discharge

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) identifies river discharge as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV), critical for understanding climate dynamics and managing water resources (GCOS, 2022). However, no satellite instrument currently exists to directly measure river discharge, which must instead be estimated indirectly. The ESA River Discharge Climate Change Initiative (CCI) precursor project (https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/river-discharge/) addresses this challenge by developing innovative methodologies based on satellite remote sensing data.

Four complementary approaches are being explored: (1) the use of long-term satellite radar altimeter time series of water surface elevations, combined with rating curves to estimate discharge; (2) The use of satellite imagery data to obtain river width, combined with rating curves to estimate discharge; (3) multispectral sensor data in the near-infrared (NIR) band, used to analyze river flow variability through the reflectance ratio between wet and dry pixels; and (4) a hybrid approach combining these two techniques. Radar altimeters offer the advantage of weather-independent measurements, while multispectral sensors provide higher temporal resolution but are limited by cloud cover.

This proof-of-concept study focuses on 54 locations across 18 river basins, spanning 2002–2022. The sites represent a variety of climatic zones, drainage areas (from 50,000 km² to the Amazon basin), levels of human activity, and availability of in situ data. The project showcases the potential for satellite-based global river discharge estimation, validated through comparisons with on-the-ground measurements.

This presentation will outline the methodologies employed, the computed discharge time series along with their validation during the first Phase of this precursor project (2023-2024), the objectives for the second phase, which has just started, and the progress achieved.

How to cite: Biancamaria, S. and Gal, L. and the CCI River Discharge: The River Discharge Climate Change Initiative precursor project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11436, 2025.

EGU25-11723 | Posters on site | HS6.4

Enhancing Global Flood and Drought Forecasting with SEED-FD: Integrating Remote Sensing for Hydrological Insights 

Vanessa Pedinotti and Gwyneth Matthews and the Vanessa Pedinotti and Gwyneth Matthews

Floods and droughts are among the most destructive hydrological extremes, creating severe socio-economic disruptions worldwide. Many regions, especially those in the Global South, remain highly vulnerable due to inadequate forecasting precision caused by sparse observational networks and limited model capabilities. The European Commission-funded SEED-FD (Strengthening Extreme Events Detection for Floods and Droughts) project under Horizon Europe aims to address these gaps by leveraging advanced Earth observation (EO) and non-EO datasets to strengthen forecasting systems for floods and droughts.

The primary objective of SEED-FD is to enhance the accuracy and global usability of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) Early Warning Systems (EWS). This involves refining key elements of the CEMS hydrological forecasting framework, including the LISFLOOD model’s hydrological processes and calibration strategies, integrating innovative machine learning and data assimilation techniques to improve predictions, and creating new global forecast products. A key focus is on incorporating nontraditional observational data, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow measurements from EO sources, as well as river discharge data obtained from microstations.

The project adopts a two-step strategy: initial algorithm and method validation in data-rich regions (Danube and Bhima basins) to establish proof of concept, followed by scaling and application in three diverse and vulnerable regions—the Paraná River Basin (Brazil), the Niger River Basin (West Africa), and the Juba-Shebelle Basin (Horn of Africa).

This presentation will cover mid-term findings from SEED-FD, emphasizing progress in hydrological model calibration, improved process representation, data assimilation, and machine learning-based post-processing. These advancements have demonstrated enhanced prediction reliability in the Danube and Bhima basins and offer valuable lessons for scaling solutions to other vulnerable regions.

How to cite: Pedinotti, V. and Matthews, G. and the Vanessa Pedinotti and Gwyneth Matthews: Enhancing Global Flood and Drought Forecasting with SEED-FD: Integrating Remote Sensing for Hydrological Insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11723, 2025.

EGU25-12589 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Hydrological dynamics of the Cuvette Centrale peatlands: insights from enhanced land surface modeling and SMOS L-band data assimilation 

Sebastian Apers, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Alexander R. Cobb, Greta R. Dargie, Ian Davenport, Rolf H. Reichle, and Michel Bechtold

The Cuvette Centrale wetland complex, located in the central depression of the Congo Basin, is a critical component of regional and global carbon and water cycles. The hydrological processes controlling these wetlands, of which 16.8 Mha are classified as peatlands, remain poorly understood, due to complex interactions between the Congo River, its tributaries, variable rainfall patterns, and anthropogenic influences. Here, we address this knowledge gap by interpreting the updates introduced by microwave data assimilation. The employed land surface data assimilation framework follows the setup of the 9-km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 Soil Moisture algorithm that includes a land surface model specifically designed to simulate peatland hydrological processes (PEATCLSM).

First, we update PEATCLSM hydrological parameters for the Congo Basin peatlands, using a new event-based approach named: HYdrological PArameterization of in situ water level dynamics using SATellite-based precipitation (HYPASAT). Along with further adjustments to the PEATCLSM module, we significantly reduce the dry bias present in water level simulations with a previous model version. Second, we assimilate L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission for the period 2010 through 2022. We demonstrate that the assimilation of SMOS L-band Tb observations into PEATCLSM further enhances the accuracy of water level estimates, indicated by improved temporal correlations with in situ data. Finally, we present an analysis of the data assimilation state updates, which showed widespread systematic patterns that were linked to observed, but unmodeled, upstream river stage anomalies. The data assimilation results highlight the sensitivity of the hydrology of the Congo Basin peatlands to local and upstream rainfall variability, as well as river dynamics, and thus river management. Therefore, we emphasize the need for integrated hydrological and land management approaches in the peatland region.

How to cite: Apers, S., De Lannoy, G., Cobb, A. R., Dargie, G. R., Davenport, I., Reichle, R. H., and Bechtold, M.: Hydrological dynamics of the Cuvette Centrale peatlands: insights from enhanced land surface modeling and SMOS L-band data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12589, 2025.

EGU25-13634 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Monitoring river profile and discharge with FFSAR off-nadir and SWOT 

Jiaming Chen, Luciana Fenoglio, and Jürgen Kusche

Accurate monitoring of river profiles and discharge is critical for understanding hydrological dynamics and water resource management. However, current nadir radar altimetry is constrained by orbital spacing and the meandering nature of rivers. This study explores the potential of off-nadir processing methods using Fully-Focused SAR (FFSAR) data from Sentinel-3A/-3B and Sentinel-6A, complemented by observations from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission.

An automated off-nadir processing algorithm was developed to estimate time-evolving river profiles in the cross-track direction. By applying off-nadir slant range corrections to retracked ranges, we expanded the effective cross-track measurement range to 6.6 km for Sentinel-3A/-3B and 9.3 km for Sentinel-6A. Validation against in-situ data from the Rhine, Danube, and Oder rivers demonstrated water level accuracy, with a standard deviation of difference (STDD) between 0.04 m and 0.09 m. Slope measurements exhibited a precision of 0.7–1.3 cm/km. Comparative analyses of river profiles over 60-km channels revealed STDD values of 0.14 m for Sentinel-6A and 0.19 m for Sentinel-3B.

Additionally, discharge in Rhine, Danube, and Oder rivers are computed from FFSAR off-nadir (2016-2024) and SWOT (2023.04-2024) using Metropolis-Manning (MetroMan) algorithms. Both of the discharge are evaluated against gauges. The results were evaluated using the NRSME and NSE metrics on the reach, showing good agreement between discharge from FFSAR, SWOT and gauges. This study is to prove that the discharge from SWOT can be extended to earlier periods using nadir altimetry data collected prior to 2023.

How to cite: Chen, J., Fenoglio, L., and Kusche, J.: Monitoring river profile and discharge with FFSAR off-nadir and SWOT, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13634, 2025.

EGU25-14014 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Geodetic Constraints on Mountain Bedrock Aquifer Flow and Diffusivity 

Matthew Swarr, Donald Argus, Hilary Martens, Zachary Hoylman, Brett Oliver, and W. Payton Gardner

Groundwater flowing through the fractured bedrock composing most mountain ranges has been increasingly recognized as a vital source of freshwater for both low-elevation communities and mountain ecosystems, maintaining streamflow and constituting a large portion of recharge to lowland aquifers used to support human activities. Despite the growing awareness of groundwater’s role in mountain hydrology and the potential impacts of climate change on mountain groundwater, it remains a challenge to study the dynamics of mountain aquifers, largely due to the low density of observational wells and challenges in characterizing the mountain block over large areas and depths. Here, we report on a new approach to characterize the flow and hydraulic properties of mountainous aquifers at a mountain range scale. We utilize high-precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of vertical crustal displacement produced by the redistribution of freshwater on or near the Earth’s surface to estimate changes in groundwater storage within the Sierra Nevada and Cascades Range of the western United States with high spatial (10s of kilometer) and temporal (daily) resolution over the past two decades. We find that on average groundwater annual recharge is less than discharge, driving long-term declines in groundwater storage over the last 19 years. Furthermore, we find groundwater recharge to be up to 3x more variable than groundwater discharge in these mountainous areas, suggesting that mountain aquifers release a relatively constant amount of water to streams and adjacent lowland aquifers despite fluctuating recharge conditions. Utilizing identified periods of groundwater discharge, we characterize the hydraulic conductivity, storativity, and flow path length of these groundwater systems using fluid diffusion models in combination with our GNSS-inferred groundwater estimates. Our initial estimates of these parameters reveal relatively high values of bedrock conductivity (~1x10-3-1x10-4 m/s) relative to expected values based upon each region’s bedrock lithology, suggesting that areas with highly fractured bedrock as well as saprolite may exert a strong control on groundwater discharge at the mountain range scale. Furthermore, our results indicate that groundwater flow paths can span lengths on the order of 100s-1000s of meters, supporting the notion that groundwater can flow over extended areas supporting recharge at both a local and regional scales. Our work seeks to provide a new set of tools for hydrologists to investigate these often poorly understood systems.

How to cite: Swarr, M., Argus, D., Martens, H., Hoylman, Z., Oliver, B., and Gardner, W. P.: Geodetic Constraints on Mountain Bedrock Aquifer Flow and Diffusivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14014, 2025.

Changes in lake water levels are closely related to climate change and can also reflect information about local human activities. Therefore, obtaining high temporal resolution time series of lake water levels is necessary for accurately analyzing hydrological changes. However, the existing methods mainly focus on the long-term changes in lake water levels, with less attention paid to short-term changes in lake water levels. In this paper, we proposed a new method to construct high temporal resolution lake water level time series by fusing multi-source altimetry satellite data based on Kalman filtering and using the MissForest algorithm to combine meteorological data (Kalman Fusion-MissForest water level, KF-MFWL). The accuracy of KF-MFWL was validated using gauge data , as well as compared with HYDROWEB and DAHITI. Finally, a dataset of daily lake water level time series for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2019 to 2021 has been compiled, and the driving factors influencing water level changes were analyzed. Our result shows that the KF-MFWL time series is comparable to that of HYDROWEB and DAHITI, but with a much higher temporal resolution. The annual rate of water level change for 264 lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is 0.021m/y. Among them, the water level of 82 lakes has significantly increased with an average annual change rate of 0.171m/y, while that of 55 lakes exhibits a remarkable decrease with an average annual change rate of -0.145m/y. This study can provide an important data basis for water resource management in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region.

How to cite: An, Z., Jiang, W., and li, Z.: KF-MFWL: A High-Resolution Time Series Construction Algorithm for Lake Water Levels Based on Multi source Altimeter Satellites and Meteorological Data Fusion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15098, 2025.

EGU25-15307 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the Benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for Rainfall Estimation on a European scale 

Muhammad Usman Liaqat, Luca Brocca, Francesco Leopardi, Stefania Camici, Rubina Ansari, and Jaime Gaona Garcia

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission provide  observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics on regional to global scales. However, they lack high spatio-temporal resolution, making them challenging to interpret different gravity field products. A join collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA), initiated a decade ago, is known as the Mass- change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC). The ultimate aim of this collaboration to improve the current models and launch new high resolution missions in order to improve capacity for monitoring extreme events such as natural hazards, droughts and floods. The ultimate aim of this collaboration to improve the current models and launch new high resolution missions in order to improve capacity for monitoring extreme events such as natural hazards, droughts and floods. The primary objective of this study to examine the impact of improving spatial-temporal resolution of NGGM and MAGIC on rainfall estimation by developing multiple synthetic experiments on a European scale. The study employed SM2RAIN by inverting the soil water balance equation to estimate the rainfall accumulated between two consecutive TWS measurements. Initially, the ERA5L based TWSA at daily time scale was incorporated into SM2RAIN to check reliability of the model against ERA5L precipitation with spatial resolution of 100 km over Europe with range of latitudes 30 to 60°N and longitudes 10°W to 50°E.. The results shows SM2RAIN exhibited satisfactory performance at a daily temporal resolution, with mean values of R, RMSE, BIAS (0.85, 13.76, -0.29) against ERA5L precipitation. Based on statistical analysis, SM2RAIN-simulated rainfall shows good agreement across the most of Europe except in some areas of the northern Italy, northeastern states (Estonia, Latvia) and costal regions of Norway . Subsequently, synthetic experiments were developed by aggregating the daily ERA5 based TWS data into 5-day intervals which led to a decline in model performance against SM2RAIN-simulated rainfall as evidenced by all statistical measures with mean values of (0.73, 18.41 and -0.43) for CC, RMSE and BIAS respectively. In another experiment where inclusion of a target error 4.2 mm into 5-day TWS further reduce the model ability to access rainfall patterns, resulting in lower CC values across Europe, with the majority of areas showing below 0.3. At a threshold error 42 mm, the model’s performance of model significantly deteriorated in order to capture meaningful rainfall patterns with mean values of CC = 0.04 and RMSE 26.30. The results shows that degrading temporal resolution and larger error make the model quite difficult to capture and represent meaningful rainfall patterns, as the error completely overshadows the underlying dynamics captured in the SM2RAIN-simulated rainfall. The results of the study clearly highlight the benefit of NGGM and MAGIC in improving our capability to estimate various hydrological components relying on satellite data as inputs.

How to cite: Liaqat, M. U., Brocca, L., Leopardi, F., Camici, S., Ansari, R., and Garcia, J. G.: Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the Benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for Rainfall Estimation on a European scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15307, 2025.

EGU25-16988 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Deep Learning Estimation of River Discharge based on Satellite Observations in Mediterranean Catchments 

Jun Liu, Julian Koch, Vianney Sivelle, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Raphael Schneider

Satellite observations have frequently been used for river discharge estimation, particularly in ungauged catchments. The largest challenge for producing continuous time series of river discharge, e.g. with daily time steps, is typically the sporadic nature of satellite observations. Various methods, including spatio-temporal densification of satellite-derived water levels along river networks, have been proposed to address this issue. However, these estimates often suffer from high uncertainties.

Here, we present a novel approach, using both satellite-derived water levels (SWL) and reflectance indices (SRI) to estimate river discharge across 46 river stations in the Mediterranean region. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), known for their efficiency in modeling complex temporal relationships. While LSTM models have been widely applied in rainfall-runoff modeling within the hydrology community, few studies have explored satellite-derived river states as inputs due to their uncertainties and temporal discontinuities.

Gap filling was necessary for SWL and SRI datasets, originally available at intervals ranging from roughly 5 to 30 days. This was accomplished based on freely available discharge from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). For each catchment, we compiled daily dynamic variables. Besides the gap-filled SWL and SRI data, this included observed river discharge, as well as precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration from global datasets.

For benchmarking purposes, we set up and calibrated lumped hydrological models for the same 46 catchments, using the same climate data as forcing. Results show that LSTM models outperformed lumped hydrological models in many catchments when using only climate variables as inputs, i.e. when being informed by the same dynamic data as the lumped rainfall-runoff models. The performance of LSTM models can be further improved with the inclusion of SRI and SWL. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis indicated that while climate variables are the most informative for discharge estimation, SRI and SWL also contribute significantly, but varying across individual stations.

The method integrates satellite-derived river states for improved river discharge estimation, while still allowing ingestion of climate input data. This goes beyond conventional hydrological models being forced by climate data only, or also existing densification algorithms for SWL, only using satellite observations

How to cite: Liu, J., Koch, J., Sivelle, V., Massari, C., Tarpanelli, A., and Schneider, R.: Deep Learning Estimation of River Discharge based on Satellite Observations in Mediterranean Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16988, 2025.

EGU25-18170 | Posters on site | HS6.4

Separation of the hydrological and tidal components in water heights to estimate discharge in the downstream, tidal, Amazon 

Stéphane calmant, Valentin Arjailles, fabien durand, paul coulet, leandro santos, laurent testut, daniel moreira, adrien paris, and rodrigo paiva

The Amazon estuary conveys the largest amount of freshwater to the world ocean (20% of the global runoff). Over the past few years, its discharge exhibited record-breaking anomalies, be it flood events (June 2021 and June 2022) or dry spells (drought of November 2023 and October/November 2024). Assessing quantitatively the imprint of these extremes over the estuarine water level is challenging though, due to the ubiquitous and vigorous tidal signal propagating upstream from the Atlantic Ocean which prevents remote discharge estimates in the estuarine part of the river. We used the multi-mission nadir altimetry dataset composed of J3+S6A, S3A, S3B. Altogether, the satellite tracks encompass the whole estuary from its upstream limit 900 km inland down to the mouths of the Amazon terminal delta, making possible to map synoptically the spatio-temporal evolution of the estuarine water level and compute the separation of the tidal and hydrological contributions into the water surface height. The approach relies on an accurate de-aliasing of the tide in the altimetry records, based on a cross-scale hydrodynamic model of the Amazon estuary purposely developed and duly validated. This model uses the SCHISM ocean circulation code, with resolution of the order of 250 m inside the estuary. It allowed inferring a time-varying tidal atlas, which is utilized to remove the tidal signal from the altimetric anomalies. The altimetric residuals depicts the spatio-temporal pattern of water level anomalies in response to discharge variations, both during the flood and drought periods. For instance, the 2021 and 2022 extreme floods induced an anomaly that lasted about 1 month each time, with water level peaks about 50 cm above the seasonal climatology, extending over the upper 500 km of the 900 km-long estuary. Downstream-ward of this, the imprint of the extreme floods decayed sharply, and reached insignificant magnitude throughout the downstream-most 300 km of the estuary (corresponding roughly to the terminal delta). A mirror conclusion can be drawn for the 2023 drought, with 1 m negative anomaly below the seasonal, mostly restricted to the upper 300 km of the estuary at the peak of the event in November 2023, and with a weak signal further downstream. The magnitude of these anomalies largely exceeds the bounds of the accuracy of our altimetric dataset. We present that it is now possible to derive reliable discharge estimates in the estuarine reach of the Amazon river by converting these tidal-free water levels from altimetry measurements through a classical rating curve, including for the extreme events.

How to cite: calmant, S., Arjailles, V., durand, F., coulet, P., santos, L., testut, L., moreira, D., paris, A., and paiva, R.: Separation of the hydrological and tidal components in water heights to estimate discharge in the downstream, tidal, Amazon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18170, 2025.

EGU25-18942 | Orals | HS6.4

Monitoring surface water storage change in lake and reservoirs  

Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Jiaming Chen, Bibi Naz, Frederic Frappart, and Jürgen Kusche

Switzerland is today rich in water, and retreating glaciers give way to new landscapes with lakes as an important element.

As part of the Collaborative Research Center (SFB 1502) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG), a project is being carried out to analyze surface water storage change and river discharge using data from the latest generation of satellite altimetry. The goal is to monitor the impact of land use change on the water cycle, here on the exchange of water between rivers, lakes and reservoirs.

We distinguish two groups of lakes: natural lakes and reservoirs. The first group includes both ancient large lakes of small variations related to long-term changes in temperature and small lakes formed in the deglaciated area rapidly changing and related to glacier melting. The second group includes reservoirs with large water variations related to resource management, like hydropower and irrigation. We generate a lake inventory for modern times and trace them in the nadir-altimetry and wide-swath altimetry to monitor seasonal and intra-annual variability of surface between 2016 and 2024. 

Fully Focused SAR nadir-altimeter processed data at 80 Hz, with along-track spacing of 85 meters are chosen together with SWOT swath-altimeter HR products. Lakes with area larger than 0.5 km**2 are used. Only ten of the more than eighty water bodies observed by SWOT in the region are detected by nadir-altimetry, showing that swath-altimetry is best suited for this application. Space-derived height and area time-series evaluated against in-situ, bathymetrie and Sentinel-1 images have higher accuracy in the natural Murnersee (1 cm bias and 3 cm standard deviation) than in reservoir Lake de Joux (31 cm bias  and 13 cm stdd). The surface area has mean accuracy of 10%,  highest change found is 100 m in hydroelectric reservoirs and 10 m in irrigation reservoirs. Most reservoirs are operated in a network. 

We look at 70 water bodies with variations larger than 10 m, assuming that larger variations are related to water management. Annual minima are in May for hydroelectric and in November for irrigation reservoirs, while in natural lakes the annual maximum is in Summer. The amplitude of storage change in hydroelectric reservoirs is 70% higher than in irrigation reservoirs and is 80% higher than in natural lakes.  The water budget in catchments is analysed comparing to land runoff and snowmelt from CLM model which is not including irrigation and hydropower.

This study hightlights the importance of the new satellite altimeter observations to study climate change, land and water use.

How to cite: Fenoglio-Marc, L., Chen, J., Naz, B., Frappart, F., and Kusche, J.: Monitoring surface water storage change in lake and reservoirs , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18942, 2025.

EGU25-19181 | Posters on site | HS6.4

Reconstruction of reservoir water level and storage using Sentinel-1 C-SAR 

Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Jakub Kadlec, and Jan Skaloš

Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides a new means for indirectly monitoring water reservoir level and storage by mapping water cover at resolutions suitable for large water bodies. Monitoring these fluctuations is essential for informed water resource management even in otherwise gauges reservoirs for the purpose of verification, detection of anomalies due to changes in floor morphology, etc. However, classification of water on SAR images can be ambiguous, to which end several non-parametric methods such as Otsu, Kittler–Illingworth (Kavats et al., 2022), k-means (Cheng et al., 2022), and entropy-based image thresholding (Sekertekin, 2021) have been proposed. Here we evaluate the capability of these methods to accurately reconstruct reservoir biweekly water level and storage. The analysis is performed on Sentinel-1 Ground Range Detected (GRD) imagery, acquired in the VV polarization mode from the COPERNICUS/S1_GRD image collection from October 2014 till today using Google Earth Engine (GEE). Processing is performed using the GEE JavaScript API and executed through the R programming environment using the rgee package. Water level and storage are derived from water cover using respective level-area and level-storage curves. The methods are applied to two reservoirs located in Greece and the Czech Republic, which are characterised by distinct seasonal water availability and demand leading to the respective reservoir level fluctuations. Results are validated by comparing against official measurements, indicating satisfactory fit. These findings highlight the potential of the proposed methods automated continuous reservoir monitoring, especially in regions facing increasing climatic variability as climate change is expected to increase the intensity of droughts and seasonal fluctuations in water availability. The study contributes to improving methodologies for assessing water dynamics in diverse climatic environments and supports the development of more efficient strategies for water resource management.

Acknowledgements

This research was conducted during ERASMUS+ KA131 mobility (contract number 1023). This work has received funding from REACT4MED: Inclusive Outscaling of Agro-Ecosystem Restoration Actions for the Mediterranean. The REACT4MED Project (grant agreement 2122) is funded by PRIMA, a program supported by Horizon 2020.

References

Cheng, L., Li, Y., Zhang, X., & Xie, M. (2022). An Analysis of the Optimal Features for Sentinel-1 Oil Spill Datasets Based on an Improved J–M/K-Means Algorithm. Remote Sensing, 14(17), 4290. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14174290

Kavats, O., Khramov, D., & Sergieieva, K. (2022). Surface Water Mapping from SAR Images Using Optimal Threshold Selection Method and Reference Water Mask. Water, 14(24), 4030. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14244030

Sekertekin, A. (2021). A Survey on Global Thresholding Methods for Mapping Open Water Body Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery and Normalized Difference Water Index. Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering, 28(3), 1335–1347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-020-09416-2

How to cite: Daliakopoulos, I., Kadlec, J., and Skaloš, J.: Reconstruction of reservoir water level and storage using Sentinel-1 C-SAR, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19181, 2025.

EGU25-19256 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Estimation of surface water volume using CYGNSS and radar altimetry 

Rachith Vasuman Suresh, Abhilasha Garkoti, and Balaji Devaraju

Surface water storage in inland water bodies is crucial for understanding water storage dynamics, which directly impact the hydrological cycle. Traditional in situ methods face limitations in capturing these dynamics, especially for smaller and remote water bodies, highlighting the need for alternative approaches. Remote sensing techniques, particularly the combination of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R) and radar altimetry, offer significant opportunities to overcome these challenges. By leveraging the unique capabilities of  CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) and radar altimetry missions, it is possible to monitor water surface extent and elevation over time, enabling continuous estimation of surface water volume in both large and small water bodies.

This study employs the CYGNSS satellite constellation to generate water masks from Delay Doppler Maps (DDMs) for Gandhisagar reservoir, Ghaghra river in Ayodhya, and Chilka lake. CYGNSS can distinguish smooth water surfaces from rough terrestrial surfaces as the DDMs generated are dominated by coherent reflections. This makes it a valuable tool for inland water body detection. An algorithm is developed to classify DDMs into coherent, incoherent, and mixed categories using a deep convolutional neural network based on the InceptionResNetV2 architecture, achieving a classification accuracy of 97.46\%. The water masks generated by CYGNSS will be compared against Pekel Global Surface Water masks and Sentinel-1 data using a thresholding method to ascertain the performance.

The elevations of the water body are estimated from radar altimetry satellites Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6, and also from Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. These estimates are then compared with in situ Water Resources Information System India (WRIS-India) data provided by the Central Water Commission, Government of India. By combining water surface area from CYGNSS and elevation data from satellite altimetry missions surface water volume change is calculated. This approach provides a framework for assessing volumetric changes in inland water bodies by combining multiple datasets.

How to cite: Suresh, R. V., Garkoti, A., and Devaraju, B.: Estimation of surface water volume using CYGNSS and radar altimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19256, 2025.

The water budget of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) relies on surface water and groundwater inflows from snowmelt in the Wasatch Mountain Block (WMB).  Existing estimates of direct groundwater inflows to GSL are essentially derived from water budget residuals (i.e. inflow needed to balance the water budget) and are therefore subject to large uncertainty.  Independent measures of groundwater inflows are needed to verify and improve water budgets and to evaluate the complex interplay between lake water and groundwater.  Groundwater modeling, stream chemistry, streamflow modeling, and stream hydrograph analyses indicate that groundwater inflow (both directly into GSL and into streams within the GSL watershed) have been underestimated.  Recent research has documented that most snowmelt infiltrates soils and recharges groundwater in the WMB before contributing to surface water supplies in the Salt Lake Valley. However, subsurface water storage and its role in water budget calculations remain difficult to quantify based on traditional hydrologic observations.  Geophysical observations (GPS and satellite- and terrestrial-gravity) provide independent constraints on the flow and storage of water mass in the Mountain Block- Valley hydrological system. We demonstrate that geophysics data combined with land surface energy balance models, stream hydrograph data, and snowpack are suited to quantify the amount and time scales of water storage in seasonal snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water storage in reservoirs and the GSL.

How to cite: van Dam, T.: Understanding Flow and Storage between the Wasatch Mountain Block and the Salt Lake Valley using GPS, Satellite Gravity, and Terrestrial Gravity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20595, 2025.

EGU25-93 | ECS | Orals | OS2.3

Energy Cascade and Dynamics of Internal Waves on a Subtropical Continental Shelf: Part 1 - Internal Tides 

Arian Dialectaquiz, Marcelo Dottori, and Piero Mazzini

During the summer of 2002 (a typical summer stratification scenario), internal waves were observed on the South Brazil Bight (SBB), concomitant to Atlantic Central Water uplifting and internal tidal dynamics, with the M2 frequency contributing nearly 10 %  of the energy spectrum. Using 1 km horizontal resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulations, we examine internal tide generation and interaction within the SBB, identifying significant spatial variability, with offshore energy hotspots influenced by the supercritical topography, topographic features, and the Brazil Current, culminating in 8.70 % of all converted energy generated 5.204 GW in the slope at only 1.64  % of the area. These features extend the residence time of Mode 1 M2 internal tide 5 days longer than the theory predicts, enhancing nonlinear interactions to the level where the wave-wave interactions matter equally as the wave-mean flow interactions, transferring energy to higher frequencies and sustaining baroclinic energy in shallower waters, where stratification breaks down rapidly. Approximately 16.18 %  of barotropic-to-baroclinic M2 energy cascades to higher harmonics, while 63.73 %  is reflected. Scattered energy supports weakly incoherent internal waves at depths shallower than 200 m, driving a nearly closed energy budget in the model. The Internal Tide enhances up to 21 %  of the vertical mixing diffusivity mostly at the bottom and enhances lower temperature advection and the thermal diffusivity coefficient while reducing the vertical potential temperature gradient mostly at the surface and subsurface. Future work will explore the role of wind-driven internal waves and their interactions with the Brazil Current in enhancing mixing, with a focus on topographic conversion hotspots and remote internal wave reflections.

How to cite: Dialectaquiz, A., Dottori, M., and Mazzini, P.: Energy Cascade and Dynamics of Internal Waves on a Subtropical Continental Shelf: Part 1 - Internal Tides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-93, 2025.

EGU25-2080 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulations of Internal Tides in the Cape Verde and Senegalo-Mauritanian Upwelling Regions 

Hao Huang, Peter Brandt, Richard Greatbatch, and Xueen Chen

Tide-topography interactions are key drivers of tidal dynamics in the Cape Verde and Senegalo-Mauritania Upwelling regions. Three-dimensional internal tide (IT) simulations identify the Cape Verde Area (CVA) as the primary IT source in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling region off Northwestern Africa, generating approximately 1.87 GW of M2 IT from barotropic tides, with nearly 48% dissipating locally. The West Barlavento Islands serve as a critical energy source, characterized by outward-propagating nonlinear internal waves from the São Nicolau Strait. The distribution and geometry of Islands largely shape a partially standing wave within the Cape Verde Sea. Along the continental margins, distinct topographic features produce contrasting IT dynamics north and south of Dakar. Approximately 9 % (85.8 MW) of the remaining CVA energy propagates eastward into the Cape Verde Plateau (CVP), with 22.3 MW radiating into the North Dakar Area (NDA). Canyon-Seamount systems along the NDA slope contribute 75.4 MW, significantly enhancing onshore energy flux and dissipation over the NDA shelf. In the South Dakar Area (SDA), energy generated over the steeper continental slope radiates offshore by approximately 25% (16.6 MW) into the CVP deep basin, where it interacts with westward propagating IT from the CVA. Onshore shoaling IT with high potential energy flourishes on the SDA shelf. Seasonal stratification significantly influences the IT dynamics with elevated wave energy over the continental slope during winter. Wave-induced turbulent mixing plays a vital role in supporting ecosystems across the Cape Verde and Senegalo-Mauritania Upwelling regions.

How to cite: Huang, H., Brandt, P., Greatbatch, R., and Chen, X.: Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulations of Internal Tides in the Cape Verde and Senegalo-Mauritanian Upwelling Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2080, 2025.

EGU25-2982 | Posters on site | OS2.3

Submesoscale variability of volume transport in Malacca and Singapore Straits 

Pavel Tkalich, Zunya Wang, and Peifeng Ma

Volume Transport (VT) throughout various sections of South China Sea (SCS) is an important ocean characteristic, defining net flux of water masses, that may also involve heat, salt, as well as admixture transport of dissolved nutrients, suspended sediments and anthropogenic substances. Due to large scale of predominant coupled ocean/atmosphere climate phenomena (e.g., monsoon, ENSO, POD, IOD), variability of VT in the SCS basin is considered commonly at seasonal and/or interannual scales, using monthly or annual resolutions. This approach is justified for large VT rates of Luzon and Karimata Straits, both defining SCS throughflow (SCSTF) having long residence time. In contrast, Malacca and Singapore Straits (MSS) VT contribute just a small fraction of SCSFT, and additionally subjected to similar order local phenomena at daily or even hourly scales. At these scales the VT contribution also is in par with predominant astronomic tide in MSS, thus opening avenue for combination of the two otherwise independent phenomena.  To develop the approach further, ocean model NEMO is run at mesoscale resolution for the past period 1990-2024, driven by global  NEMO (ECMWF) model at the lateral boundaries and ERA atmospheric forcing at the ocean surface. Even though the research focuses on Singapore Strait, Malacca Strait is included due to dominant regional and local phenomena affecting both water bodies. In order to elucidate variability of submesoscale VT at different cross-sections of MSS, computed daily currents and sea levels are analysed in par with atmospheric forces with the goal to obtain trend, variability and extremes of VT in MSS at daily-to-interannual resolutions. New phenomenon (coined Singapore Strait Reflux, or simply Reflux) is discovered computationally and using  data analysis  – which is a temporal reversal of VT in Singapore Strait against dominant east-to-west direction. The Reflux episodes lasting from days to weeks may occur any time of a year due to coincidence and interplay of different scale phenomena, affecting MSS  from north (Indian Ocean via Andaman Sea), from south (Riau Islands) and from the east (Anambas Archipelago in SCS). The research focuses on understanding of Reflux genesis and forecasting capabilities.

This project is funded by the Research, Innovation and Enterprise 2025 Coastal Protection and Flood Management Research Programme of Singapore. The authors also thank Low K.S.,  Sasmal K. for their support in the idea discussions.

How to cite: Tkalich, P., Wang, Z., and Ma, P.: Submesoscale variability of volume transport in Malacca and Singapore Straits, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2982, 2025.

EGU25-3418 | Orals | OS2.3

Analysis of a newly recovered historical sea level and air pressure dataset in Cap Horn (1882-1883)  

Laurent Testut, Duncan Agnew, Philip Woodworth, Jamal Khan, and Nushrat Yeasmin

As part of the first international polar year (1882-1883), two scientific bases were established in the southern hemisphere by France and Germany. The French settled at the southern tip of South America seventy km northwest of Cape Horn at Orange Bay and the German expedition two thousand km away in the south Atlantic in the South Georgia Islands (Royal Bay). This contrasts with the effort put in the northern hemisphere, where 12 stations were installed during this first international polar year. The Cape Horn mission was organized by the French Science Academy and 140 men were send to the south to set up the scientific base and to carry out meteorological and magnetic operations over the course of a year. During this period, sea level measurements were carried out using a tide pole at the arrival of the expedition and then a floating tide gauge. The 300 original tidal charts (marigrams) of the floating gauge have not yet been found, but about 15000 half-hourly sea level measurements from the tables of the scientific report have been digitized. We have also digitized the barometric pressure records. The recording was almost continuous from September 12, 1882 to August 31, 1883.  This newly recovered dataset is one of the few records of the southern hemisphere's sub-polar regions to cover almost a full year in the 19th century. In particular, this recording enables precise analysis of the tides in this part of the world. In the presentation we will assess the quality of the records and discuss the evolution of the tide in this region.

How to cite: Testut, L., Agnew, D., Woodworth, P., Khan, J., and Yeasmin, N.: Analysis of a newly recovered historical sea level and air pressure dataset in Cap Horn (1882-1883) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3418, 2025.

We calculate the changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100. Our extreme sea level in each location is a combination of sea surface height associated with storm surge and wave (100-year return period, the 95th percentile), high tide (the 95th percentile) and a low probability sea level rise scenario (the 95th percentile).  We apply a probabilistic approach with focus on low- probability high- impact events, commonly used for assessments of the economic impact of coastal floods, coastal defence design, and population exposure, among others. We demonstrate that changes in magnitude of extreme sea levels are not uniformed along the global coastline, however, most of locations will experience an increase in magnitude of extreme sea levels in warming climate.   By 2030-2040 the present-day 100-year return period for extreme sea levels would be experienced at least once a year in tropical areas. This 100-fold increase in frequency will take place on all global coastlines by 2100.

How to cite: Jevrejeva, S.: Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4092, 2025.

EGU25-5748 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

Assessing a probabilistic model for guiding storm surge barrier maintenance  

Sunke Trace-Kleeberg, Krijn Saman, Robert Vos, Elja Huibregtse, Ivan D. Haigh, Marc Walraven, Annette Zijderveld, and Susan Gourvenec

Storm surge barriers provide flood protection to many major coastal cities in estuaries around the world. Maintenance of these assets is critical to ensure they remain reliable and continue to comply with protection standards. To ensure safe working conditions, there are often critical thresholds of environmental conditions, beyond which maintenance work cannot be carried out. However, as storm surge barriers age and with climate change effects such as sea-level rise and changes in storminess, periods when environmental conditions exceed set thresholds will occur more frequently, thus making it more challenging to carrying out the required work in available maintenance windows. Probabilistic models using ensemble forecasts of upcoming water levels determine the likelihood of conditions exceeding the threshold and so can inform on decision making regarding maintenance. Here we evaluate a probabilistic model currently in operational use by Rijkswaterstaat, the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, to guide maintenance decisions at the Maeslant barrier in the Netherlands. Sixteen years of historic highwater level forecasts from a combination of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Dutch Continental Shelf Model v5 are used with observations from the Hoek van Holland tide gauge to evaluate and sensitivity test the probabilistic model. Binary classification is used to assess the performance of the probabilistic model. Findings show that the model is conservative with 33.1% of outcomes resulting in a False Alarm. Changing the baseline parameters of critical probability and water level threshold impacts the balance between False Alarm and Miss outcomes. Increasing the critical probability reduces the number of False Alarms but increases the Miss situations, emphasising the trade-off between acceptable risk and time available to carry out maintenance work. This study highlights the delicate balance between model parameter selection and the associated risk with respect to the maintenance of storm surge barriers.

How to cite: Trace-Kleeberg, S., Saman, K., Vos, R., Huibregtse, E., Haigh, I. D., Walraven, M., Zijderveld, A., and Gourvenec, S.: Assessing a probabilistic model for guiding storm surge barrier maintenance , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5748, 2025.

EGU25-7995 | ECS | Orals | OS2.3

Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight and its application 

Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke

Storm surges pose a significant risk to coastal areas, including the German Bight, where strong northwesterly winds lead to extreme water levels. We present a simple and efficient storm surge model for the German Bight using multiple linear regression with 10 m effective wind as the only predictor. We train and evaluate the model using historical skew surge data from 1959 to 2022, applying regularization techniques to improve prediction accuracy while maintaining the model’s simplicity. The final storm surge model consists of only five terms - the effective wind at various locations with different time lags within the North Sea region and an intercept. A performance assessment based on cross-validation yields a correlation of 0.88, matching the performance of much more complex models despite the simplicity of our approach. The model provides robust predictions for both moderate and extreme storm surges. Moreover, the model’s simplicity makes it particularly suitable for routinely estimating storm surges in climate simulations, even if the climate models provide a very limited number of output variables. Hence, the presented statistical storm surge model provides a valuable tool for evaluating storm surge risks under changing climate conditions. We apply the storm surge model to a multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 global climate simulations to explore the impact of anthropogenic climate change on storm surges in the German Bight. A particular focus is on potential changes in storm surge intensity.

How to cite: Schaffer, L., Boesch, A., Baehr, J., and Kruschke, T.: Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight and its application, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7995, 2025.

EGU25-8431 | Orals | OS2.3

Interactions of Tides, Storm Surge, and River Flow in the Microtidal Neretva River Estuary 

Nino Krvavica, Marta Marija Gržić, Silvia Innocenti, and Pascal Matte

Estuaries and tidal rivers are highly dynamic transitional zones where marine and riverine processes interact, creating complex hydrodynamic environments. These regions are influenced by natural phenomena such as tidal oscillations, storm surges, and river flow, as well as human activities like water management, hydropower operations, flood protection, and navigation. Effective management of these environments relies on understanding and predicting their hydrodynamic behavior, particularly under extreme conditions such as flooding or abrupt water level changes.

This study examines the microtidal Neretva River estuary in Croatia to investigate the interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharge, and their impacts on water level variability. A modified non-stationary harmonic analysis, based on the NS_Tide model, was developed specifically for microtidal conditions. This model incorporates storm surge and river discharge, improving the predictive accuracy of water levels along the estuary, from tide-dominated downstream sections to discharge-influenced upstream areas. The new version of NS_Tide also allows for a more detailed decomposition of total water levels and tide-surge-river interactions.

The results reveal that river discharge is the primary factor influencing water levels at most stations, while the impact of storm surge decreases upstream. Tide-river interactions were observed throughout the study area, whereas tide-surge interactions had minimal effects. The analysis showed that high-frequency discharge fluctuations caused by hydropower operations amplify the S1 tidal constituent in upstream river sections. These fluctuations also modulate the amplitudes of other tidal constituents in estuarine and tidal river regions, highlighting the complex influence of human activities on tidal dynamics.

The proposed non-stationary harmonic model proved highly effective for the microtidal Neretva River, capturing the complex interactions between tidal and non-tidal forces under various conditions. Its adaptability to local conditions suggests it could also be applied to mesotidal and macrotidal systems, offering a practical tool for managing estuaries and tidal rivers across diverse environments.

How to cite: Krvavica, N., Gržić, M. M., Innocenti, S., and Matte, P.: Interactions of Tides, Storm Surge, and River Flow in the Microtidal Neretva River Estuary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8431, 2025.

EGU25-8535 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

Seismic monitoring of the October 2023 storm surge along the coast of the Baltic Sea 

Lars Wiesenberg, Christian Weidle, Knut Krämer, Christoph Pilger, Christian Winter, and Thomas Meier

The coupling between ocean and seismic waves – often referred to as (oceanic) microseism – is a well-established concept since the 1950’s. Ocean and seismic waves are correlating not only on seasonal to annual, but also on daily timescales, in particular during extreme weather events. The most prominent microseism signals have periods below ten seconds and originate from interfering water waves. They are called secondary microseism and can be related to marine storm activity. While some secondary microseism may arrive from far-away coastal regions, a strong contribution also results from nearby coastal wave activity. This paper shows that measurements of microseism from our recently expended seismic network in northern Germany are well suited to monitor wave propagation processes in coastal areas during extreme weather events like the October 2023 storm surge. We utilize three component seismic data from seven stations along the German Baltic Sea coastline and infrasound data from the local array Kühlungsborn (IKUDE) to investigate secondary microseism and atmospheric pressure variations during the storm surge. Spectral investigations over time show distinct local differences in secondary microseism of the Baltic Sea at three different near coastal sites which correlate with half the peak wave period in each respective area. Infrasound measurements reveal additional noise sources, such as nearby wind parks, anthropogenic sources or microbaroms in the North Atlantic and probably the North Sea which are transferred through the atmosphere and absent in seismic data and vice versa. Therefore, sources of our seismic measurements during the October 2023 storm surge are related rather to ocean generated microseism, transferred through the solid Earth than to atmospheric pressure sources. As amplitudes related to secondary microseism of the Baltic Sea decrease with increasing distance of the station to the coast, this allows for an estimation of a sensitivity range along the Baltic Sea coastline. For seismic monitoring of coastal areas, seismic stations are needed to be within 25−30 km distance to the coastline to precisely detect locally generated microseism.

How to cite: Wiesenberg, L., Weidle, C., Krämer, K., Pilger, C., Winter, C., and Meier, T.: Seismic monitoring of the October 2023 storm surge along the coast of the Baltic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8535, 2025.

EGU25-10414 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

Dissipation processes in global scale tide simulations using a high order discontinuous Galerkin model 

Vincent Pilorget, Andrea G. Filippini, Luca Arpaia, and Mario Ricchiuto

Coastal flooding is a major risk factor for human activities located at the coast. Between the different flooding types that can occur, coastal flooding by overflowing is the one that causes the more devastating effects, because it involves the largest volumes of water. This type of flooding occurs when the mean sea water level exceeds that of coastal defenses. The sea water level at the coast is the result of tide-surge interactions (if the wave setup is neglected), which will also experience the effects of climate change and sea level rise in the coming years.

The numerical modelling is a fundamental tool to understand the phenomena involved, study the coastal hazard and prevent the risk. In this work, whose final aim is to study tide-surge interactions at the global scale, we first focus on the numerical simulation of the dissipative mechanisms, which play a central role in tide propagation. 
Indeed, numerical dissipation is added to the physical one in numerical simulations impacting the quality of the results, especially at the coast. In this context, we present a tool for the understanding of physical and numerical dissipative processes and their impacts on the tide propagation. In a barotropic framework, which is suitable to simulate the tide (and later the surge) at the global scale, we solve the non linear shallow water equations using the Uhaina model [1, 2]. It uses an arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite elements method, which provides great parallel scaling properties (HPC). The model works on spherical geometry and includes the bathymetry, the bottom friction, the Coriolis force and the meteorological forcing (wind and atmospherical pressure). Furthermore, the model uses an artificial viscosity mechanism based on the shock capuring theory to stabilize the simulations.

In this work we improve the existing model to account for tidal effects. They include the tide generating potential, the self-attraction and loading term and the internal tide dissipation. As a first step, we show the validation of our global barotropic tidal simulations against the FES2014 model, propagating the M2 constituent of the tide by means of an unstructured mesh discretization of the globe. We then investigate global energetic and dissipative diagnosis, at different DG orders and mesh resolutions, to quantify and localize the spurious energy dissipation induced by the scheme in order to highlight the physical one (generated by bottom friction and internal tide dissipation). 

This work is carried out within the framework of the LAGOON - LArge scale Global storm surge simulation Of OceaNs - project (partnership between the French reshearching institutes BRGM, INRIA and UPPA). The project will end up by investigate the impact of future climate on tide and storm surges interactions to produce a sea level database using the Uhaina model.

[1] Filippini, A., et al. (2024). An operational discontinuous galerkin shallow water model for coastal flood assessment. Ocean Modelling, 192:102447.

[2] Arpaia, L., et al. (2022). An efficient covariant frame for the spherical shallow water equations: Well balanced dg approximation and application to tsunami and storm surge. Ocean Modelling, 169:101915

How to cite: Pilorget, V., Filippini, A. G., Arpaia, L., and Ricchiuto, M.: Dissipation processes in global scale tide simulations using a high order discontinuous Galerkin model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10414, 2025.

Traditionally, the ocean is treated as an incompressible fluid to simplify wave modeling. However, ocean compressibility—dictated by its density and bulk modulus—significantly impacts wave dynamics, particularly for long-period surface waves (>30 s) and compressional waves within the water column. Similarly, Earth's transition from rigid to elastic behavior under surface loads further influences wave propagation by altering phase speed and waveforms. These effects manifest as arrival time discrepancies and waveform modulation, as observed in tsunami and long-wave dynamics (Allgeyer & Cummins, 2014; Abdolali et al., 2017, 2019).
This study explores the combined effects of ocean compressibility, Earth elasticity, and background density on wave characteristics across a wide frequency range, including infra-gravity (IG), storm surge, tidal waves, and compressional acoustic waves. Building on prior work, a dispersion relationship is derived, accounting for dynamic ocean compression under gravity interacting with a finite, multi-layered elastic Earth. By analyzing phase speed, group velocity, travel times, and pressure profiles, this research advances understanding of wave dynamics and offers a robust framework for improved modeling of tides and storm surges, coastal flooding, tsunamis, and acoustic wave propagation.

Abdolali, A., & Kirby, J. T. (2017), Role of compressibility on tsunami propagation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122, 9780–9794.
Abdolali, A., Kadri, U. & Kirby, J.T. (2019), Effect of Water Compressibility, Sea-floor Elasticity, and Field Gravitational Potential on Tsunami Phase Speed. Scientific Reports, 9, 16874
Allgeyer, S., & Cummins, P. (2014). Numerical tsunami simulation including elastic loading and seawater density stratification. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(7), 2368-2375.

How to cite: Abdolali, A. and Kadri, U.: Impact of Ocean Compressibility, Earth Elasticity, and Background Density on Surface Gravity and Compressional Wave Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11260, 2025.

EGU25-11494 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level’s (PSMSL) global mean sea level dataset  

Chanmi Kim, Andrew Matthews, and Elizabeth Bradshaw

The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges, responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL was founded 90 years ago, and today operates from the Liverpool site of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre. 

The PSMSL’s main product, a dataset of monthly and annual means from over 2000 locations worldwide aggregated from over 200 suppliers, is a cornerstone in our understanding of changes in sea level over the two centuries. For our highest quality Revised Local Reference (RLR) dataset, we ensure the data can all be referred to a fixed point on land, ensuring a consistent vertical reference frame is used throughout the record. Also, we provide vertical land movement information from permanent GNSS installations near each tide gauge, allowing users to compare our data to measurements from satellites and GNSS-IR data through our GNSS-IR data portal.

Here we present the PSMSL mean sea level dataset, ellipsoidal ties, and GNSS-IR, along with an overview of the dataset's status over the past few years. We also discuss ongoing efforts to improve the dataset and the quality of metadata we supply, and attempts to ensure they meet FAIR data practices (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable). 

How to cite: Kim, C., Matthews, A., and Bradshaw, E.: The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level’s (PSMSL) global mean sea level dataset , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11494, 2025.

EGU25-13240 | ECS | Orals | OS2.3

Probabilistic predictions of storm surge from coarse scale climate data based on normalizing flows 

Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Tim H. J. Hermans, Anaïs Couasnon, Carolin Grumbach, Matthias Mengel, Inga Sauer, and Katja Frieler

Storm surges are causing widespread devastation, directly impacting coastal communities through injuries and fatalities, infrastructure damage, and the displacement of residents. Projections of future storm surges are vital for assessing these risks, especially under climate change that causes both the intensity and frequency of these extreme events to increase. The temporal and spatial resolution of global climate model simulations do not resolve the critical characteristics of the events: storm surge peaks such as daily maximum storm surge occur on the scale of hours, while global climate model simulations are often only available at daily time scales. The coarse resolution data include some information about the daily maximum water levels but does not exactly determine the maximum storm surge peaks. Instead, a range of daily maximum storm surge peaks are realistic under the same coarse conditions.

Hydrodynamic and data-driven models often derive storm surge time series deterministically capturing the average outcome, but do not represent the range of outcomes given coarse-scale predictors. Probabilistic models can address this by generating ensembles of outcomes, each consistent with coarse-scale predictors. For future projections, where no observed storm surge exists for comparison, it can be beneficial to use individual ensemble members to provide more realistic storm surge scenarios.

We implement a multivariate probabilistic model using normalizing flows to simulate time series ensembles of daily maximum storm surges, driven by climate data aggregated to daily means. We train and evaluate the model using ERA5 climate reanalysis data and storm surge time series from the hydrodynamic Global Tide and Surge Model in the time period 1979-2018 across five representative regions worldwide. Our findings indicate that individual ensemble members replicate key statistical features of storm surges more effectively than the ensemble means, given the limited temporal and spatial resolution of the predictors. The multivariate model effectively preserves spatial correlations within each individual ensemble member, making it a spatially realistic realization of storm surge. 

Probabilistic storm surge time series conditioned on coarse atmospheric predictors open up new possibilities beyond traditional hydrodynamic modeling. Its performance in settings with limited predictor resolution make it an effective tool for computing storm surge projections consistent with climate model outputs.

How to cite: Treu, S., Tiggeloven, T., Hermans, T. H. J., Couasnon, A., Grumbach, C., Mengel, M., Sauer, I., and Frieler, K.: Probabilistic predictions of storm surge from coarse scale climate data based on normalizing flows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13240, 2025.

EGU25-13406 | ECS | Orals | OS2.3

Rapid Field Survey Damage Assessment of the 2024 Typhoon Man-yi in Aurora, Philippines 

Justin Joseph Valdez, Maria Erica Gomez, Jerome Gabriel Abagat, Joshua Agar, Ella Clarissa Leal, and Adrian Jyronne Luz

On 17 November 2024, Super Typhoon Man-yi (local name: Pepito) hit the northern part of the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h and lowest central pressure of 920 hPa. Man-yi was the third typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines for that month. Man-yi first passed through the island province of Catanduanes before proceeding north and making landfall at Dipaculao in Aurora province. High-risk storm surge warnings were issued in the country with an estimated height of 2.1 to 3.0 meters at the coast of Aurora for a 48-hour lead time forecast. Although extensive documentation on the damages and affected families was done by government agencies, there were no official storm surge measurements known to be reported. Thus, there is a need to investigate the empirical gap on storm surge levels that occurred in Dipaculao and correlate them with the observed damage to structures. A field survey was conducted at Dipaculao and was able to measure storm surge heights of up to 5.52 meters. A drone was deployed to assess the structural and non-structural damage due to severe wind and storm surge in the area. The field survey observations were supplemented with a numerical simulation of the wind field from Man-yi using  the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Detailed observations of the damages to a hotel around 20 meters from the coast were documented, and lessons learned from the event are discussed.

How to cite: Valdez, J. J., Gomez, M. E., Abagat, J. G., Agar, J., Leal, E. C., and Luz, A. J.: Rapid Field Survey Damage Assessment of the 2024 Typhoon Man-yi in Aurora, Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13406, 2025.

EGU25-16303 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

Sensitivity of pump design to the method to assess the influence of persistent periods of extreme sea water levels 

Laurie Van Gijzen and Alexander Bakker

Discharging excess water from regulated water systems in low-lying coastal areas will likely become more difficult due to sea level rise. The functionality of existing discharge sluices will decrease as the discharge window shortens. Additionally, high sea water levels can cause a decrease in the pump capacity of pumping stations, as they would operate far from the optimal operating point.  This reduction in discharge capacity may lead to an increase in flood risk in  water systems, requiring new or expansions of existing pump-sluice stations.

An accurate representation of high sea water levels due to tides and storm surges is essential to correctly determine the required pump-sluice capacity and operational head  for new pump-sluice stations. To asses the effect of storm tides on a water system we are mainly interested in persistent periods of high water levels, their temporal evolution and their distribution. Storm tide models can provide the time series of high sea water levels and the associated statistics required for the pump-sluice design process. Most available models can be sorted in to three types of approaches: long measurement time series,  generation of stochastic events, physics-based or stochastic-based long synthetic time series.  

In this study different storm tide models were used to assess the functionality of our pump-sluice station design. A comparison shows that the application of different methods leads to very different results in our pump design. Given that all models are plausible, this introduces an important source of uncertainty, which has to be taken into account in the design phase to prevent over- and under-designing.

How to cite: Van Gijzen, L. and Bakker, A.: Sensitivity of pump design to the method to assess the influence of persistent periods of extreme sea water levels, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16303, 2025.

EGU25-17513 | Orals | OS2.3

Squishy in the sloshy: paleoecology as a proxy for tides? 

Mattias Green, Hannah Byrne, and Miranda Hartley

The ocean tides are a key driver of a range of Earth system processes. Tidal energy drives vertical mixing with consequences for ocean circulation, climate, and biological production, and the tidal stream transport sediments, pollutants, and other matter through the ocean. Tides have also been proposed to be one component influencing key evolution and extinction events, including initiating the radiation of terrestrial vertebrates. Over the past decade it has become clear that the key controller of tidal energetics on long time scales is tectonics because the size of the ocean basins controls the resonant properties of the tides. Consequently, having accurate reconstructions and paleoDEMs (Digital Elevation Models, i.e., topography) would lead to accurate deep-time tides.  Here, we propose that paleoecology can be used to constrain the paleoDEMs, and thereby improve deep-time tidal models results: if a fossil is from a coastal setting, we know where the coastline should be in the reconstructions. We use extensive literature reviews of fossil cnidarian medusae (“jellyfish”) and ichnites (footprints), with focus on those from dinosaurs, to constrain Cambrian and Jurassic paleoDEMs. The early results are encouraging, and in many cases estimates of tidal current speeds can be obtained as well from grainsize estimates of the sediments in the rocks.

How to cite: Green, M., Byrne, H., and Hartley, M.: Squishy in the sloshy: paleoecology as a proxy for tides?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17513, 2025.

EGU25-17753 | ECS | Orals | OS2.3

New global sea surface height internal tide atlas MIOST-IT 24 

Tchilibou Michel Lionel, Carrere Loren, Ubelmann Clément, Barbot Simon, and Dibarboure Gerald

This study presents MIOST 2024 (MIOST24), a new global atlas of the sea surface height (SSH) signature of coherent internal tides derived from a single time inversion of 28-year (1993-2020) along-tracks altimetry dataset. The single inversion using a conjugate gradient algorithm, simultaneously resolves the contributions of internal tides and mesoscale eddy variability, unlike other methods which rely on separate mesoscale estimates. Compared to the MIOST 2022 version (MIOST22) by Ubelmann et al., 2022, MIOST24 is based on mode 1 and mode 2 internal tides wavelengths calculated from the vertical stratification profiles of the GLORYS12v1 climatology (1993-2020). MIOST24 atlases are available for the four major tidal components M2, K1, S2, 01. For these waves, the amplitudes and phases of coherent internal tides from MIOST24 are compared with existing atlases MIOST22 and HRET (by Zaron 2019). Additionally, the ability of the different atlases (MIOST24, MIOST22 and HRET) to remove the internal tide signal from altimetry data is evaluated over an independent period from 2021 to 2023. 

How to cite: Michel Lionel, T., Loren, C., Clément, U., Simon, B., and Gerald, D.: New global sea surface height internal tide atlas MIOST-IT 24, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17753, 2025.

EGU25-18912 | Posters on site | OS2.3

A storm surge hindcast for the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1979 to 2023 

Jung-A Yang and Changkyum Kim

A storm surge driven by meteorological phenomena such as low atmospheric pressure and strong winds is an abnormal rise in sea level that can result in disasters, including coastal flooding, damage to coastal structures, ecosystem destruction, and beach deformation. This phenomenon arises from complex interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and topography, making it essential to reconstruct and analyze past storm surge events to assess their impacts and identify vulnerable areas. Therefore, this study produced storm surge hindcast for the Northwest Pacific region, covering 115-150°E, 20-52°N, from 1979 to 2023. The dataset was generated using pressure and wind fields from ERA5 as external forcing conditions for the Delft3D-FM model. It features a spatial resolution of approximately 40 km in the open sea and 800 m in coastal areas, with a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The topographic data for modeling comprised GEBCO2023 for the open sea and the latest nautical chart data for Korea’s coastal regions. The accuracy of the data was evaluated for short-term events (individual typhoons) and long-term trends (multi-year statistical values), using observational data from 45 tide gauge stations along the Korean coast as the evaluation standard. The root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), and variance ratio (VR) were employed as evaluation metrics. The analysis of data accuracy for short-term events revealed that it varied depending on topographical features, such as water depth, and the specific characteristics of the typhoon. Long-term trends were evaluated for the annual average, as well as the 99-percentile and maximum values, both representing extreme events. The analysis confirmed that storm surges should be analyzed using the concept of extreme values rather than average values. It was also identified that both short-term events and long-term trends tended to be underestimated by the model compared to the observations. This is likely due to the inability of ERA5, used as the external forcing condition, to accurately simulate extreme weather conditions such as typhoons. So, in the future, it is considered necessary to conduct storm surge hindcast simulations by applying high-resolution meteorological reanalysis data (e.g., JRA-55) for pressure and wind fields as external forcing conditions in the same numerical modeling environment.

How to cite: Yang, J.-A. and Kim, C.: A storm surge hindcast for the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1979 to 2023, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18912, 2025.

EGU25-19526 | Posters on site | OS2.3

Global Prediction of non-tidal ocean mass variability induced by atmospheric forcing with a barotropic ocean tide model 

Roman Sulzbach, Maya Nocet-Binois, Michael Hart-Davis, Jean-Michel Lemoine, and Pascal Gegout

Global models of the ocean mass anomaly play an important role in processing space geodetic observations. Most importantly, high-frequency variability of the sea surface height (and the associated surface mass) can degrade altimetric and gravimetric observations, due to their observation characteristics. Therefore, background models are typically used to avoid aliasing of high-frequency signal content. Ocean dynamics is significantly driven by baroclinic dynamics, especially on long-time scales. However, barotropic ocean models have been successfully used to predict high-frequency (~sub-monthly) sea surface dynamics and mass variability (e.g., Carrère and Lyard, 2003; Schindelegger et al., 2018).

Here, we present simulations of non-tidal sea surface height dynamics with the barotropic ocean model TiME (Tidal model forced by ephemerides), which was originally designed to study ocean tides and adapted to simultaneous tidal and non-tidal forcing (Sulzbach et al., 2021). The model possesses several characteristics that are beneficial for global storm surge simulations : (i) a truly global domain ; (ii) the computation of the non-local effect of self-attraction and loading at each time step ; (iii) dissipation by parameterized baroclinic processes, i.e., topographic wave drag ; (iv) simultaneous forcing by the Tide-Generating potential as well as atmospheric pressure and wind stress. The model's versatility allows us to study the influence of the above-mentioned features on the accuracy of the prediction of non-tidal ocean mass variability. Among all considered effects, the influence of (ii) is especially pronounced, as it is sensitive to the spatial extent of the ocean mass anomaly, which can change significantly in time and space for non-tidal processes.

Multiple years of sea surface height data were computed and transformed to Stokes coefficients. Comparison of the results with geodetic observations (e.g., tide gauge data) shows consistent validation and significant improvements when considering tidal/non-tidal interactions, self-attraction and loading, and optimized mechanical energy dissipation by topographic wave drag.

How to cite: Sulzbach, R., Nocet-Binois, M., Hart-Davis, M., Lemoine, J.-M., and Gegout, P.: Global Prediction of non-tidal ocean mass variability induced by atmospheric forcing with a barotropic ocean tide model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19526, 2025.

EGU25-19712 | ECS | Posters on site | OS2.3

Evaluating ocean tide models using absolute gravity measurements at Aboa, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica 

Arttu Raja-Halli, Jaakko Mäkinen, Maaria Nordman, and Jyri Näränen

We have conducted absolute gravity (AG) measurements over several austral summer seasons at the Finnish Antarctic base Aboa, located in western Dronning Maud Land. The most recent measurements were made in January–February 2024. Aboa is situated on the slope of Basen nunatak, approximately 470 m above sea level, 20 km from the grounding line of the ice shelf, and 100 km from the open sea. Individual AG measurement campaigns lasted from 24 hours to two weeks, with optimal conditions for measurements - stable, laboratory-level environment and low microseismic noise.

The AG measurements revealed clear signals of ocean tidal loading, with effects reaching several microgals. To identify the most accurate representation of ocean tidal dynamics at the site, we calculated theoretical tidal loading using multiple ocean tide models, including both global and regional solutions. Due to the limited duration of the measurement campaigns, our analysis is restricted to diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components. By comparing the calculated tidal loading with the AG residuals, we aim to assess the performance of different models and refine our understanding of tidal dynamics at Aboa. Preliminary results highlight significant discrepancies between models and observations.

Tidal modeling in Antarctic regions presents unique challenges, including limited observations, uncertain sub-ice topography, and complex grounding line dynamics. Transitional zones, where the ice shelf's stiffness dampens the effects of water column changes, as well as density differences at the ice shelf base and surface, further complicate accurate tidal loading modeling.

Identifying the most accurate tidal model is important for improving the interpretation of gravity and other geodetic data, like GNSS time series, and isolating other geophysical signals, such as ice mass changes and related solid Earth deformations.

How to cite: Raja-Halli, A., Mäkinen, J., Nordman, M., and Näränen, J.: Evaluating ocean tide models using absolute gravity measurements at Aboa, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19712, 2025.

EGU25-876 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Seismic sequences in the Italian Apennines influenced by fault network geometry  

Constanza Rodriguez Piceda, Zoë Mildon, Billy Andrews, Yifan Yin, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Martijn van den Ende, and Claudia Sgambato

Stress interactions between neighbouring faults plays a key role in controlling earthquake recurrence and size, and therefore in the seismic hazard posed by individual faults within a fault network. In this study, we investigate how differences in the predominant arrangement of faults, specifically, whether it is along-strike or across-strike, affect earthquake recurrence rates and magnitude of earthquakes. To address this topic, we use the boundary-element code QDYN to simulate earthquake cycles of two fault systems within the actively extending region of the Italian Apennines: one to the south where faults are predominantly arranged along-strike, and another in the central Apennines where faults are predominantly arranged across-strike.  The different styles of fault network between the Central and Southern Apennines, and high seismic hazard of the region, make this the ideal area to investigate the role of fault geometry on earthquake behaviour across multiple seismic cycles in this region.

The models account for variable fault slip rates between faults and network geometry to determine their impact on seismic cycles and earthquake statistics. These simulations produce spontaneous ruptures, with slip modes encompassing full and partial ruptures as well as slow-slip events. We found a good fit between the modelled magnitudes and the ones derived from historical ruptures and empirical relationships. Fault networks with multiple across-strike faults produce more complex seismic sequences, including greater variability in recurrence times and higher proportion of partial ruptures, compared to fault networks with faults arranged predominantly along-strike. Lastly, we assessed the seismic hazard in the studied regions based on the modelled earthquake rates and magnitudes. Our findings show that the spatial distribution of peak ground acceleration corresponding to a 50-year exceedance probability has a greater heterogeneity compared to classical seismic hazard assessment approaches. Hazard levels are elevated in areas where multiple faults overlap, highlighting the influence of fault interactions on regional hazard patterns. These findings show the influence of fault system geometry on how stresses redistribute across multiple earthquake cycles and associated seismic hazard.

How to cite: Rodriguez Piceda, C., Mildon, Z., Andrews, B., Yin, Y., Ampuero, J.-P., van den Ende, M., and Sgambato, C.: Seismic sequences in the Italian Apennines influenced by fault network geometry , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-876, 2025.

EGU25-2435 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Large Off-Fault Deformation of 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo Earthquake along an Immature Strike-Slip Fault, Tibetan Plateau 

Wenjun Kang, Zhanfei Li, and Xiwei Xu

The characteristics and factors that control the Off-Fault Deformation(OFD)remain poorly understood. The existing studies shows the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake produce the largest OFD than other earthquake cases. We try to use the China Gaofen-serie-satellite images to re-constrain the OFD deformation. By correlating pairs of images before and after this earthquake, we obtain the coseismic deformation parttern of  the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake. By measuring the coseismic deformation, we constrain the near-field and far-field surface displacement distribution. The result shows that this earthquake accommodated 69% of total surface deformation as OFD deformation over a mean deformation-zone width of 237 m.  Our result show the OFD proportation of the Maduo earthquake is large, but our result is lower than the result by using the SPOT and Sentienl-2 images. By analying the fault geometry  and geological deposit, we think the magnitude and width of off-fault deformation along the rupture is primarily controlled by the fault maturity and structural complexity of the fault. 

How to cite: Kang, W., Li, Z., and Xu, X.: Large Off-Fault Deformation of 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo Earthquake along an Immature Strike-Slip Fault, Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2435, 2025.

Surface ruptures associated with large historical earthquakes provide critical insights into earthquake magnitudes and the kinematics of their seismogenic faults. In 1955, a major earthquake occurred along the Zheduotang fault, a segment of the southern Xianshuihe fault zone in eastern Tibet. The magnitude of this earthquake has been a subject of debate, with estimates ranging from M6.6 to M7.5, primarily due to conflicting interpretations of its associated surface ruptures. This study reviews previous research on the surface ruptures of the 1955 Zheduotang earthquake and presents new field data, including unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based topographic surveys, trench excavations, and lichenometry in the epicentral region. Evidence from the freshness of ground ruptures, dating of faulting events from trenching, and lichen size measurements supports a ~55 km long surface rupture zone, corresponding to a moment magnitude (Mw) of ~7.1 for the 1955 earthquake. Analysis of offset glacial interfluves reveals a late Quaternary left-lateral slip rate of ~2.5–3.0 mm/yr in the southern segment of the Zheduotang fault, lower than ~3.4–4.8 mm/yr previously observed in the northern section. Deformed landforms and surface ruptures indicate that the fault trends NWN and exhibits predominantly left-lateral strike-slip motion in its northern section, while the southern segment trends NW and includes a notable normal faulting component. Our findings suggest that the Zheduotang fault delineates the southwestern boundary of the Bamei-Kangding releasing stepover zone within the southern Xianshuihe left-lateral strike-slip fault zone. These results enhance understanding of seismic hazards and the tectonic kinematics along the eastern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau.

How to cite: Ren, J., Xu, G., and Xu, X.: Revisiting surface ruptures of the 1955 Zheduotang earthquake (M ~7.5) in eastern Tibet: kinematic implications on the southern Xianshuihe fault zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2504, 2025.

EGU25-4021 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Paleoseismic Records of the Dead Sea Reveals Climatic Modulation of Seismicity Along the Continental Transform Fault 

Shmuel Marco, Shimon Wdowinski, Yin Lu, Anne Le Blanc, and Machel Higgins

The Dead Sea Basin, a pull-apart basin situated along the Sinai-Arabia transform plate boundary, presents a unique natural laboratory to examine the long-term variability of earthquake activity through its extensive paleoseismic record, spanning the past 220,000 years. This record is constructed from borehole and outcrop data documenting seismites—earthquake-induced sedimentary deformations formed within the ancient lakes of the basin. Preliminary studies have identified a strong correlation between earthquake occurrence and fluctuations in lake levels, pointing to a potential climatic influence on seismic activity.

Through an NSF-funded project, we aim to quantify the relationship between lake-level variations and the paleo-earthquake record by investigating the mechanisms underlying seismite formation. These processes include sediment accumulation, seismic shaking, unit disruption, gravitational sliding, and subsequent deposition. Seismic shaking results from the interplay of tectonic processes such as strain accumulation, surface load changes, pore pressure variations, and stress release. This shaking interacts with sedimentary processes to form seismites. The study incorporates five research components: (1) advanced time series analyses of the 220 ka seismite record; (2) spatial detection analysis to assess the uncertainty of single-core paleo-earthquake event detection; (3) geospatial paleo-bathymetry analysis of sediment availability for turbidite generation at different lake levels; (4) fluid mechanical modeling of sediment rheology and deformation style at varying lake levels; and (5) pore fluid pressure, fault strength and mechanical modeling related to earthquake occurrence on both primary strike-slip and secondary normal faults at This research aims to elucidate the role of climatic factors in modulating seismic activity within the Dead Sea Basin. By integrating methodologies from geology, geodesy, geophysics, paleoseismology, paleoclimatology, and sedimentology, the study provides critical insights into the physical processes governing long-term earthquake variability along continental transform faults.

How to cite: Marco, S., Wdowinski, S., Lu, Y., Le Blanc, A., and Higgins, M.: Paleoseismic Records of the Dead Sea Reveals Climatic Modulation of Seismicity Along the Continental Transform Fault, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4021, 2025.

EGU25-4056 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Subduction Earthquake Cycle through the lens of analogue modelling: the role of the upper plate rheology 

Simona Guastamacchia, Fabio Corbi, Giacomo Mastella, Silvia Brizzi, and Francesca Funiciello

Subduction megathrusts are among the largest fault systems on Earth and are responsible for generating megaearthquakes-the most powerful earthquakes and one of the most destructive natural phenomena. However, obtaining natural data on the Subduction Earthquake Cycle (SEC) in these areas is challenging due to the long recurrence intervals of such events. To overcome this limitation, we used analogue models to reproduce in the laboratory hundreds of seismic cycles under different conditions in just a few minutes. The models feature a single velocity weakening asperity (i.e., rice) surrounded by a velocity-neutral material (i.e., sand). Using a parametric approach, we systematically varied two key parameters of our single asperity model: (1) the rheology of the upper plate, which affects its stiffness and (2) the normal load (σn) applied on the asperity. We performed four distinct models, each with a different upper plate stiffness. For each upper plate stiffness we implemented four σn (i.e., 16 models in total). High-resolution monitoring of our models, combined with Particle Image Velocimetry, allowed for a detailed analysis of the analog earthquakes. The variation in upper plate rheology enabled the models to simulate the transition from stick-slip behavior to stable sliding, governed by the ratio k/kc, the stability parameter within the rate-and-state framework. Moreover, the models demonstrate that this variation is a controlling factor of magnitude and recurrence time of the analogue events. Comparing the results with natural data, we found that all the models exhibit moment magnitudes (Mw) comparable to those of natural megaearthquakes. The possibility of crossing the k/kc=1 threshold allows us to explore the stick-slip behavior in a regime that includes period doubling linked to the coexistence of faster and slower slip rates. The findings in our experimental models demonstrate the influence of the upper plate rheology in the spectrum of megathrust slip behaviors, providing constraints that could potentially be applied to natural subduction zones. 

How to cite: Guastamacchia, S., Corbi, F., Mastella, G., Brizzi, S., and Funiciello, F.: Subduction Earthquake Cycle through the lens of analogue modelling: the role of the upper plate rheology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4056, 2025.

The evolution of the shear traction at plate interfaces is a key input to seismic hazard assessments, as it relates rheological properties of the interface material to the slip history of the fault. However, at the relevant spatial scales, shear tractions can only be modelled indirectly, with kinematic coupling commonly used as a proxy for inferring any slip deficit that drives seismic hazard. When the 2011 Mw 9.1 Tohoku-oki earthquake ruptured the Northern Japanese megathrust, it did so in an area where simplified models estimated low-to-medium kinematic coupling (Uchida and Bürgmann, 2021). 
The reliance on kinematic coupling for seismic hazard assessment could be reduced if instead the long-term slip budget (or equivalently, the shear stress history) could be estimated for a given fault zone. Such a method, in turn, would require the definition of specific constitutive laws in order to simulate multiple earthquake super-cycles, as well as an inversion independent of initial conditions. We have built such a scheme building on previous work (Kanda and Simons, 2010; Hetland and Simons, 2010; Kanda et al., 2013; Mallick et al., 2022; Köhne et al., in press). Our approach assumes that the plate interface is divided into fully-locked asperities surrounded by regions of the fault interface characterized by rate-dependent friction. We impose a historically realistic rupture timeline for each of the assumed asperities, but let the remaining fault interface evolve freely otherwise according to its mechanical properties, until it obtains cycle-invariance. After reaching the time period where GNSS observations of the region exist, we calculate the residuals to surface displacement timeseries, and use a Bayesian inference approach to estimate the best-fit frictional parameters. This inference is sensitive to our inherent ignorance of the elastic structure of the area around the plate interface. Therefore, we extend our framework to assess the impact of such heterogeneity.
We present results from our updated Northern Japanese subduction zone model, where we consider both pre- and post-2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake GNSS surface displacement observations. We first show, using a homogeneous halfspace model, how estimates of slip deficit and kinematic coupling differ.  We also find that the product of the rate-dependent frictional parameter (a-b) with effective normal stress generally decreases with depth. We then show how these conclusions change after considering the more realistic 3D elastic structure of Hashima et al. (2016), who have shown the importance for the coseismic fault slip and associated surface deformation (Hsu et al., 2011; Ragon and Simons, 2023). The structure includes depth-varying elastic moduli for the continental plate, down going slab, and mantle. Using PyLith, we calculate the relevant stress and displacement kernels for our earthquake simulation framework. Our model results provide important perspectives for future seismic hazard assessments and postseismic studies of rheological properties.

How to cite: Köhne, T., Mallick, R., Ragon, T., and Simons, M.: The Impact of 3D Elastic Structure on Estimates of Megathrust Frictional Properties Derived from Earthquake Cycle Inversions of Pre- and Post-2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake GNSS Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4256, 2025.

EGU25-4323 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Coseismic and aseismic normal fault slip in Central Greece from InSAR time series 

James Wood, Alexander Whittaker, Rebecca Bell, Haralambos Kranis, Athanassios Ganas, and Gwenn Peron-Pinvidic

Normal faults in a rate-and-state friction model release seismic energy in distinct, instantaneous seismic events (i.e. earthquakes) between steady state periods. However, recent geodetic work in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece suggests that some seismogenic normal faults can also undergo transient aseismic slip events above steady state deformation rates in interseismic periods. Integrating the full range of fault slip behaviours into fault evolution frameworks is required to better constrain how normal faults accommodate and release strain with implications for rift development and seismic hazard. Therefore, further detailed observation of both coseismic and aseismic slip behaviours across normal faults at all time scales are needed.

In this analysis, we exploit open-source, vertical ground motion data from the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS), derived from five-years of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements, to evaluate uplift and subsidence in areas of active tectonics. While vertical ground motion data likely reflects a range of geological, hydrological and anthropogenic processes, isolating tectonic signals allows quantification of fault motion on annual to decadal time scales using the Europe-wide dataset. Therefore, this data bridges an important time-scale gap between event-specific InSAR studies and geological assessments and provides regional context to ground motion. Here, we use time series spanning 2019 to 2023 to assess vertical ground motion across normal faults in Central Greece that have, and have not, hosted large earthquakes in this period.

Spatio-temporal ground motion analysis is conducted for the March 2021, Mw > 6 earthquakes in the Larissa Basin (Thessaly). The cascading rupture style of the earthquakes and aftershocks is resolved in EGMS time series, and geometries of uplift and subsidence are plotted to define rupture parameters and fault plane projections. High coseismic uplift to subsidence ratios of 1:6 – 1:9 reflect the tight structural controls on this earthquake sequence. In contrast to Larissa, EGMS time series across the Coastal Fault System of the North Gulf of Evia imply aseismic normal fault slip. Differential vertical ground motion is recorded across both the Kamena Vourla and Arkitsa fault segments with little to no associated seismicity. Time-averaged throw rates of 2 - 3 mm/yr are measured at an uplift to subsidence ratio of 1:2. These throw rates exceed the long-term, geodetic extension rates across the North Gulf of Evia suggesting that the faults are moving in a transient period of elevated aseismic slip between 2019 and 2023. The nearby Atalanti Fault, which hosted two Mw > 6.4 earthquakes in 1894, shows no differential ground motion across its plane reflecting that the fault is in a locked state. The observed variable shallow crustal behaviour of normal faults implies long-term, geologically derived throw rates on normal faults likely combine transient periods of elevated aseismic slip, coseismic slip, and steady state strain accommodation.

How to cite: Wood, J., Whittaker, A., Bell, R., Kranis, H., Ganas, A., and Peron-Pinvidic, G.: Coseismic and aseismic normal fault slip in Central Greece from InSAR time series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4323, 2025.

EGU25-5630 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Seismic rupture and earthquake sequence along the Ganzi-Yushu fault in Eastern Tibet: From kinematics to dynamics 

Jianfeng Cai, Yangmao Wen, Kefeng He, and Caijun Xu

The Ganzi-Yushu fault, striking in a northwest direction with a length of approximately 500 km, delineates the boundary between the Bayan Har block and the Qiangtang block. Due to the ongoing collision between the Indian plate and Eurasia plate and the resultant eastward extrusion process in the Tibetan Plateau, the fault system is characterized by rapid left-lateral strike-slip and frequent major earthquake events. The 2010 MS 7.1 Yushu earthquake ruptured the northwestern segment of the fault, resulting in significant casualties and property losses. Apart from the 2010 Yushu earthquake, this fault has experienced four M > 7.0 earthquakes in the past 300 years, marking it as one of the most seismically active fault systems in the Tibetan Plateau.

In this study, we use Sentinel-1 InSAR data spanning from 2014 to 2023 to derive the interseismic velocity fields along the Ganzi-Yushu fault. Based on the interseismic velocity field, we derive the slip rates and interseismic coupling distribution along the Ganzi-Yushu fault using elastic block model. The results indicate left-lateral slip rates of 4.0~6.5 mm/yr along the Ganzi-Yushu fault. We identify five locked segments along strike, which has good consistency with historical earthquakes.

To assess the earthquake potential along the Ganzi-Yushu fault, we simulate earthquake rupture sequences using quasi-dynamic earthquake cycle model. We set the friction coefficient of the rate- and state-dependent friction law according to the interseismic coupling model, thereby obtaining interseismic slip rates in numerical simulations that align with the kinematic results. Our quasi-dynamic earthquake cycle model generates both single- and multi-segment ruptures with magnitudes approximating those inferred from the historical events. Owing to variations in seismogenic width and slip rate, different segments exhibit distinct recurrence intervals, which is consistent with the results from geological surveys. The locations of nucleation and the slip history on fault determine whether a rupture can propagate across multiple segments and generate a major event. By integrating the kinematic model with the physics-based seismic cycle simulations, our results shed light on the earthquake potential along the Ganzi-Yushu fault.

How to cite: Cai, J., Wen, Y., He, K., and Xu, C.: Seismic rupture and earthquake sequence along the Ganzi-Yushu fault in Eastern Tibet: From kinematics to dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5630, 2025.

EGU25-5877 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

How well can displacement be resolved close to earthquake surface ruptures using optical image correlation?   

Cecilia Martinelli, James Hollingsworth, Romain Jolivet, and Marion Thomas

The study of natural hazards like earthquakes requires accurate measurement of ground displacement. When paired with high-resolution satellite imagery, Optical Image Correlation (OIC) has proven to be highly effective in mapping near-field ground displacements for large earthquakes, offering detailed and precise data. This is crucial for understanding fault mechanics and the generation of strong ground motions during shallow earthquakes.

OIC has several advantages over field or traditional geodetic methods. First, it is robust against image noise, allowing meaningful data extraction from various types of imagery, even when separated over long time periods. Second, unlike InSAR, OIC does not suffer from decorrelation close to fault ruptures, thus providing rich data in the near-field region and offering insight into shallow fault characteristics. Third, OIC has subpixel resolution, enabling the detection of small (cm-scale) displacements. Fourth, OIC provides dense displacement measurements that would be difficult to replicate with field methods. Finally, OIC can help to identify subtle ground features and long-wavelength displacement signals, including those associated with off-fault deformation. OIC has been widely used to characterize near-field displacements during several recent surface-rupturing earthquakes. Displacements measured by OIC typically surpass field measurements due to the latter's inability to capture smaller, distributed deformations away from the primary fault rupture. OIC data can thus help us to more accurately infer the width of the fault zone, encompassing both on-fault and off-fault deformation. 

Studies on the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake used various optical datasets and correlation methods to explore near-field displacement and the extent of off-fault deformation. However, the choice of correlation approach used can impact the magnitude and nature of the observed deformation, which, in turn, may impact subsequent analysis of the strain field. 

This study aims to analyze multiple correlation algorithms (MicMac, COSI-Corr, Ames Stereo Pipeline and AmpCor) and optical datasets (Pleiades, WorldView, Spot and ADS80), spanning a range of resolutions, incidence angles, and temporal variations. We explore how correlation techniques influence displacement values and whether they can artificially smooth discrete fault offsets, creating apparent (artificial) off-fault deformation. Using synthetic tests and the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as a case study, we explore the variability in off-fault deformation and fault zone width, depending on the processing approach adopted. Ultimately, we highlight the limitations of OIC in quantifying off-fault deformation, thus providing constraints on the extent to which such data can be used to address aspects of fault mechanics.

How to cite: Martinelli, C., Hollingsworth, J., Jolivet, R., and Thomas, M.: How well can displacement be resolved close to earthquake surface ruptures using optical image correlation?  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5877, 2025.

EGU25-5899 | Orals | TS3.4

Earthquake cycle simulations for seismic hazard assessment 

Olaf Zielke, Theodoros Aspiotis, Sarah Fadhladeen, and Paul Martin Mai

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) requires, among other components, a comprehensive representation of seismic sources that could affect sites or regions of interest, including their location and seismogenic character. Observational earthquake catalogs are generally too short or incomplete to provide a comprehensive source representation. Computer-generated earthquake catalogs, created by physics-based earthquake cycle simulations, can augment the observational catalogs, therefore contributing to improved SHA. With MCQsim, we developed an earthquake cycle simulator with this purpose in mind. MCQsim is openly available via GitHub. Since its initial publication in 2023, we were able to improve the code substantially, improving its performance and scalability, therefore enabling simulation for large-scale fault systems. Additionally, we built an interface between MCQsim and seismic hazard engine OpenQuake to streamline the incorporation of simulated catalogs into PSHA.

Here, we want to showcase these recent improvements. We perform earthquake cycle simulations for the Gulf of Aqaba and East Anatolian fault systems, creating earthquakes catalogs that span tens of thousands of years, with magnitude ranging from M3.5 to M7.8+. We validate these catalogs with observational constraints of the respective fault systems. Using these simulated catalogs, we investigate the occurrence of earthquake sequences, highlighting variations in large-earthquake occurrence probability as a function of time. We further showcase the integration of simulated catalogs into the OpenQuake environment, creating seismic hazard maps.

How to cite: Zielke, O., Aspiotis, T., Fadhladeen, S., and Mai, P. M.: Earthquake cycle simulations for seismic hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5899, 2025.

EGU25-6505 | Posters on site | TS3.4

Dynamic changes of gravity field before the Luding Ms6.8 earthquake and its crustal material migration characteristics 

Jiapei Wang, Qingqing Tan, and Chongyang Shen

On September 5, 2022, a magnitude Ms6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province. This earthquake occurred at the key part of the southeast-clockwise extrusion of material on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the Y-shaped confluence of the Xianshuihe, Longmenshan and Anninghe fault zones. In this study, the three-dimensional dynamic crustal density changes in the earthquake area are obtained by the typical gravity change data from 2019 to 2022 before the earthquake and gravity inversion by growing bodies. The results indicate that gravity changes presented an obvious four-quadrant and gradient belt distribution in the Luding area before the earthquake. The three-dimensional density horizontal slices show that small density changes occurred at the epicenter in the mid-to-upper crust between 2019.9 - 2020.9 and 2019.9 - 2021.9. At the same time, the surrounding areas exhibited a positive and negative quadrant distribution. These observations indicate that the source region was likely in a stable locked state, with locking in shear forces oriented in the NW and NE directions. From 2021.9 to 2022.8, the epicentral region showed negative density changes, indicating that the source region was in the expansion stage, approaching a near-seismic state. The three-dimensional density vertical slices reveal a southeastward migration of positive and negative densities near the epicenter and on the western of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, indicating that the material is flowing out to the southeast. The observed local negative density changes at the epicenter along the Longmenshan Fault Zone are likely associated with the NE-oriented extensional stress shown by the seismic source mechanism. The above results can provide a basis for interpreting pre-earthquake gravity and density changes, thereby contributing to the advancement of earthquake precursor theory.

How to cite: Wang, J., Tan, Q., and Shen, C.: Dynamic changes of gravity field before the Luding Ms6.8 earthquake and its crustal material migration characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6505, 2025.

EGU25-7699 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

What can the limited and uncertain geological record tell us about the earthquake cycle? 

Jonathan Griffin, Ting Wang, and Mark Stirling

The geological record of past earthquakes on a fault provides a basis for forecasting the probability of another earthquake occurring within some future timeframe. Yet paleoearthquake records are typically limited to the most recent few events, and dating uncertainties are often large. This creates uncertainty in the application of statistical models to these data, both in terms of model parameterisation and in the choice of model itself. Consequently, there are challenges linking observations of large earthquake recurrence to theoretical models of the earthquake cycle.

In this study we use paleoearthquake records from more than 90 faults globally to investigate the earthquake cycle and how it varies across different tectonic regions, fully accounting for data uncertainties. We find that earthquake recurrence is weakly to moderately periodic for most faults, while low activity-rate faults exhibit more strongly aperiodic recurrence behaviour. Fitting four different renewal models (Weibull, gamma, lognormal and Brownian passage time distributions) to the data, we show that there is no single model that universally best describes earthquake recurrence. We find that diversity in recurrence characteristics exists both between different tectonic regions and for different fault segments within the same fault system. Finally, we investigate how observations of cumulative fault displacements due to multiple earthquakes can help constrain earthquake cycle models when paleoearthquake data is limited and uncertain.

How to cite: Griffin, J., Wang, T., and Stirling, M.: What can the limited and uncertain geological record tell us about the earthquake cycle?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7699, 2025.

EGU25-9148 | Posters on site | TS3.4

Investigating the Tectonic Complexity of the Bulnay-Tsetserleg Fault Junction in Mongolia Using a Temporary Seismic Network 

Laurent Bollinger, Laure Manceau, Yann Klinger, Jean Letort, Ulziibat Munkhuu, Battulga Bakthuu, Tuguldur Ganbold, and Iag-dase Technical_team

Mongolian tectonics is shaped by the far-reaching effects of the Indo-Eurasian collision, which drives deformation and stress over 2000 km behind the Himalayan front. During the 20th century, Mongolia experienced four earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 8, making it an exceptional location for studying intraplate seismicity, predominantly with strike-slip components. Among these events, the Tsetserleg-Bulnay fault system recorded the largest intraplate earthquake doublet, with two magnitude 8 earthquakes occurring 14 days apart in 1905, rupturing more than 500 km of fault. The surface rupture, remarkably well-preserved due to the region's low erosion rate, has enabled extensive paleoseismic investigations. Despite this, the junction between the two faults remains unclear at the surface, and the fault structures at depth are still poorly constrained, leaving the interactions between fault segments not well understood.

In the present day, the significant microseismic activity affecting the Bulnay and Tsetserleg faults is anomalous given the low regional deformation rate and overall Mongolian seismicity. This persistent microseismicity could be interpreted as aftershocks that illuminate the faults’ structures more than a century after their mainshocks. By tracking this microseismicity with precision, we aim to map the faults’ 3D geometry at depth and address several questions including: how do these faults interact, why did the Bulnay earthquake occur only 14 days after the Tsetserleg earthquake, and why is its epicenter located 150km west of the junction zone?

In 2024, the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) and the Mongolian Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (IAG) collaborated to strategically deploy a temporary seismic network, TDBnet, at the Bulnay-Tsetserleg junction. This network, comprising 10 geophones in addition to 5 broadband stations, operated altogether for five months, complementing the national network, and recorded local seismicity with unprecedented resolution. The collected data are being processed to automatically detect seismic phases using state-of-the-art methods, including the EQTransformer artificial neural network implemented in Seisbench. The detected events are then precisely located using an absolute location method, followed by an absolute relocation corrected with a Source Specific Station Time approach as proposed in the NonLinLoc-SSST framework. We present the experiment along with preliminary results, including a precisely determined earthquake epicenter map.

Acknowledgement  : We sincerely acknowledge the IAG-DASE technical team for their collaboration in the deployment of the temporary seismic network (TDBnet): Narmandakh Adyasuren4, Dorjdavaa Myagmar4, Youndonjunai Sodvoobavuu4, Nyamdorj Badarch4, Munkhbat Dagva4, Enkhtuvshin Begzsuren4, Purevsuren Dosmaa4, Leo Chazellet1,4, Serge Olivier1,4, Vincent Lisette1,4, Denis Lubin1,4.

How to cite: Bollinger, L., Manceau, L., Klinger, Y., Letort, J., Munkhuu, U., Bakthuu, B., Ganbold, T., and Technical_team, I.: Investigating the Tectonic Complexity of the Bulnay-Tsetserleg Fault Junction in Mongolia Using a Temporary Seismic Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9148, 2025.

EGU25-9782 | Posters on site | TS3.4

Complexity of scaled seismotectonic models 

Fabio Corbi, Adriano Gualandi, Giacomo Mastella, and Francesca Funiciello

We investigate the complexity of two types of scaled seismotectonic models mimicking subduction megathrust seismic cycles. Our research encompasses a variety of model sizes, materials, deformation rates, and frictional configurations. Using nonlinear time-series analysis tools and displacement as an input variable, we characterize the dynamics of laboratory earthquakes in different phases of the labquake cycle. The number of active degrees of freedom that we are able to retrieve is low (<5) during most of the cycle, akin to slow slip episodes observed in natural settings and friction experiments performed with quartz powder. Results seem insensitive to the along-strike frictional segmentation of the megathrust. Nonetheless, the instantaneous dimension d can reach large values (>10), revealing the complexity of the system. High values of d correlate with slip phases, while significant drops in the extremal index anticipate slip episodes. Our results suggest that prediction horizons are in the order of a fraction of slip duration similarly to prediction horizons inferred for slow slip events in nature. This research not only enhances our understanding of earthquake dynamics, but also validates scaled seismotectonic models as effective tools for studying frictional physics across diverse spatio-temporal scales.



How to cite: Corbi, F., Gualandi, A., Mastella, G., and Funiciello, F.: Complexity of scaled seismotectonic models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9782, 2025.

EGU25-11133 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Megathrust Coupling in Southwest Japan Inferred from Viscoelastic Modeling 

Yiqing Liu, Yan Hu, and Xin Cui

In Southwest Japan, interseismic deformation exhibits distinct patterns, particularly across Kyushu Island, where its magnitude decreases significantly from north to south. Various mechanisms, including plate motions, fault slip on onshore fault systems, dilatational sources, and variable interplate coupling along the Nankai and Ryukyu subduction zones, have been proposed to explain these features. While previous studies have effectively modeled horizontal deformation and attributed the rotational pattern in southern Kyushu primarily to plate motion, they often neglect or inconsistently predict vertical deformation, underscoring the need for further investigation.

In this study, we employ a three-dimensional (3D) viscoelastic finite element model (FEM) to analyze interseismic deformation in Southwest Japan, spanning the transition from the Nankai to the Ryukyu subduction zone. To focus on megathrust coupling, we exclude block motion and consider other factors as secondary influences. Our goal is to reconcile horizontal and vertical geodetic observations and provide a first-order estimate of megathrust coupling in this margin through a viscoelastic model, offering a direct comparison with previously published elastic models.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Hu, Y., and Cui, X.: Megathrust Coupling in Southwest Japan Inferred from Viscoelastic Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11133, 2025.

EGU25-11371 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Metamorphic dehydration reactions trigger slow slip events in subduction zones 

Jorge Jara, Mathieu Soret, Nadaya Cubas, Andrei Maksymowicz, Fabrice Cotton, and Romain Jolivet

Aseismic slip, particularly in the form of Slow Slip Events (SSEs), plays an undisputed role in the release of stress along faults, occurring slowly and without generating classical seismic waves. SSEs are recognized as critical phenomena influencing various stages of the seismic cycle, including postseismic phases, earthquake triggering or arresting, and interseismic transients. However, the mechanisms governing their underlying physics remain debated. Three primary hypotheses have been proposed: (1) heterogeneities in fault constitutive properties that may drive episodic SSEs; (2) stress interactions arising from geometric complexities (e.g., damage zones) that could explain the full observed slip spectrum; and (3) the influence of fluids circulating along fault zones, which increase pore pressure and reduce normal stress, thereby promoting slip. To investigate these mechanisms, we integrate SSE databases, slab thermal models, and thermodynamic metamorphic modeling.

Our study examines nine subduction zones around the Pacific region, using thermal slab models that account for uncertainties in temperature estimations. By using an extensive SSE database (1800 events, Slow Earthquake Database, from the Japanese project “Science of Slow-to-Fast Earthquakes), we compare modeled temperature and pressure conditions with observed SSE distributions. Statistical analysis reveals two distinct temperature ranges where SSEs cluster: approximately 100°C and 350–550°C. Thermodynamic modeling of mafic rocks under subduction conditions indicates that the 100°C cluster aligns with the smectite-to-illite transition, a reaction known to release significant amounts of water. The 350–550°C cluster corresponds to metamorphic transitions from greenschists to amphibolites, which also release considerable water. SSEs are notably absent at pressure-temperature conditions where mafic rocks are fully dehydrated.

The water released during such metamorphic reactions increases pore pressure, reduces normal stress, and facilitates slip. While the mechanisms sustaining slow slip—such as nucleation length or dilatant stress—remain debated, our results suggest that water release due to metamorphic reactions is a key trigger for SSEs along subduction interfaces. In addition to the release of fluids, we hypothesize that the change in resistance induced by the change in mineralogical configuration might also play a role in the nucleation of SSEs. These findings highlight the importance of integrating geophysical observations with petrological processes to better understand the dynamics of SSE in subduction zones

How to cite: Jara, J., Soret, M., Cubas, N., Maksymowicz, A., Cotton, F., and Jolivet, R.: Metamorphic dehydration reactions trigger slow slip events in subduction zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11371, 2025.

EGU25-11563 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Spatio-temporal evolution of earthquake potential constrained by a physical and statistical approach: Application to the Chilean subduction zone 

Sylvain Michel, Diego Molina-Ormazabal, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Andrés Tassara, and Romain Jolivet

To become very large earthquakes, seismic ruptures that saturate the seismogenic width (M>8.3 in subduction zones) need to propagate long distances along-strike. Multiple factors can hinder this propagation, among them the available energy on the fault. A recent extension of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics theory to elongated ruptures provides a framework to estimate when a portion of a fault has enough potential energy, and is hence sufficiently loaded, to generate a large earthquake. Based on this framework, we present a method that takes into account the along-strike distribution of available energy to evaluate, using a probabilistic approach, the timing and magnitude of potential future large earthquakes, and thus the seismogenic potential of the fault. This approach assumes that the ruptures have already saturated the seismogenic width of the fault. We apply and assess this method on the Chilean subduction zone. We first perform a sensitivity test and explore the impact of the uncertainties of model parameters on the timing Tc at which a section of a fault is ready to host large ruptures. This initial test shows that Tc is controlled by the uncertainty of the parameter B, a coefficient involved in the scaling between fracture energy and final slip, which controls the energy consumed by the rupture. We further constrain B by comparing the observed interevent time between ~M9.5 earthquakes on the Valdivia segment and the one predicted from our model, assuming that such earthquakes occur as soon as the fault is ready to host it. Fixing B to this constrained value, we then estimate the evolution of the probability of earthquakes exceeding M8.5 over the whole Chilean subduction. Along-strike heterogeneity of the available energy arises from the heterogeneity of the loading rate, based on an geodetically-inferred coupling map, and from the along-strike changes of the seismogenic width. Our results highlight that the earthquake potential on a specific segment can be significantly altered by the occurrence of earthquakes on neighboring segments. This is illustrated by the drops in the probability of >M8.5 events on the Copiapo segment after the 2010 Maule and 2015 Illapel earthquakes. By combining our estimates with the rate of events that saturate the seismogenic zone, we are able to estimate the probability of occurrence of >M8.5 events. Such physics-based modeling is a novel approach to time-dependent seismic hazard analysis.

How to cite: Michel, S., Molina-Ormazabal, D., Ampuero, J.-P., Tassara, A., and Jolivet, R.: Spatio-temporal evolution of earthquake potential constrained by a physical and statistical approach: Application to the Chilean subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11563, 2025.

EGU25-11845 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

A 3-D numerical model to bridge long- and short-term approaches of deformation on a strike-slip fault 

Adélaïde Allemand, Yann Klinger, and Luc Scholtès

A strike-slip fault is subjected to earthquakes spanning seconds to minutes, separated by periods of hundreds to thousands of years. As the fault matures and undergoes multiple seismic events, its geometry and strength evolve, hence impacting in return the course of seismic cycles. Given the variability of timescales, two approaches are generally chosen in order to model the deformation of the lithosphere. On one hand, long-term modeling looks at the tectonic evolution of deformation, and is usually quasi-static and disregards the effects of dynamic events. On the other, short-term modeling respects well earthquake mechanics, but does not account for the impact of evolution of fault geometry on seismic cycles.

Here, we construct a numerical model of a continental strike-slip fault system, in a way that can effectively bridge together the different spatio-temporal scales of lithospheric deformation, and include the mutual influence of fault maturation and earthquakes upon one another. The developed approach uses the Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) method, which is based on the discretization of the medium in a finite number of rigid, spherical particles interacting via predefined contact laws. Using this method, we build a 3-D model of a portion of the crust. Initially, the material is homogeneous and intact. Then, shearing boundary conditions are applied, leading to the spontaneous emergence of a through-going, strike-slip fault showing complexities and evolving naturally as the shearing is maintained. On this evolving strike-slip fault, unstable sliding occurs, that we identify as earthquakes.

In order to validate our model, we first compare the long-term tectonic deformation with that of previous analog and numerical experiments described in the literature, and with natural observations. Second, we assess the physical validity of the recurrence behaviour of our created fault by comparing the frequence-magnitude distribution of our events with the Gutemberg-Richter law. Finally, we also provide tools able to characterize particular events by imaging the rupture geometry, the coseismic surface deformation as well as the coseismic displacement field on the fault.

How to cite: Allemand, A., Klinger, Y., and Scholtès, L.: A 3-D numerical model to bridge long- and short-term approaches of deformation on a strike-slip fault, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11845, 2025.

EGU25-13444 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Towards systematic kinematic source models of historically large earthquakes 

Margarita Solares-Colon, Diego Melgar, and Mary Grace Bato

We are interested in systematically analyzing large ruptures to establish scaling laws of kinematic properties, such as rise times, slip rates, and rupture speeds. The challenge is that kinematic models for large (M6+) events are often produced with heterogenous methodologies and datasets. This makes synthesis of general behaviors challenging and results ambiguous. Additionally, as methods continue to develop, past events with good observations do not necessarily have slip models produced with modern methods. Thus, retrospective analysis of slip distributions is fundamental to allow us to further investigate general characteristics of source parameters during a rupture. 

Here we will discuss our plans to retrospectively process significant ruptures with new inversion techniques that are capable of jointly inverting teleseimsic body and surface waves, static and high-rate GNSS, InSAR, strong motion and tsunami data. We will highlight the approach by focusing on the M9.1 Tohoku-oki earthquake to showcase the advantages of the new approach. This earthquake in 2011 stands as one of the largest ruptures ever recorded and most closely observed earthquake in history due to the dense array of seismic and geodetic instrumentation in Japan. This provided an unprecedented opportunity to study this megathrust event and collect data near source. 

This analysis extends beyond the great M9.1 Tohoku-oki earthquake, actively contributing to the ongoing reevaluation of finite-fault models for large earthquakes dating back to the 1990s, while also incorporating regional data when available. Ultimately, we aim to refine source scaling properties of large earthquakes worldwide. Therefore, we will present our proposed workflow that involves not only systematizing the inversion process but also the creation of standardized and analysis-ready input source products. This is particularly important for InSAR and GNSS, which are quickly expanding their temporal and spatial sampling of crustal deformation worldwide. 

How to cite: Solares-Colon, M., Melgar, D., and Bato, M. G.: Towards systematic kinematic source models of historically large earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13444, 2025.

In the central Tien Shan, the Karatau-Talas-Fergana Fault (TFF) is the largest intracontinental strike-slip fault, recognized as active during the late Holocene and accommodates a portion of the deformation resulting from the ongoing Indo-Asian collision. However, the kinematics and role of the TFF remain poorly understood, with no large earthquakes documented in instrumental or historical catalogs. Notably, in the region, the strongest shaking in the 20th century occurred during the November 2, 1946, Chatkal earthquake, but with a potential epicenter located approximately 20 km from the TFF trace. Despite this, there are no clear reports of surface faulting, and no fresh tectonic scarps associated with the 1946 earthquake have been identified along the TFF fault. As a result, the location, focal mechanism, and potential surface rupturing of the 1946 Chatkal earthquake remain debated.

In this study, in the Chatkal Range, we utilize high-resolution satellite imagery (Pleiades and Worldview) to conduct a comprehensive analysis of fault segmentation. Our detailed mapping reveals multiple offsets in streams, rivers, moraines, and abandoned alluvial surfaces along the TFF. Additionally, UAV-based digital elevation models (DEMs) and orthophotos provide unprecedented detail of the fault's morphology, allowing us to measure an offset of approximately 4.6 meters for the more recent surface rupture.

We also conducted new Quaternary dating of displaced geomorphic markers and excavated a paleoseismic trench, where we discovered a fresh surface rupture. In the trench, two separate surface ruptures were observed, offsetting sedimentary units from a sag pond. We propose that the most recent earthquake event correlates with the 1946 Chatkal earthquake. Based on the trench data, we estimate return times of approximately 3,000–4,500 years and calculate slip rates from the cumulative offsets. By integrating these data, we provide insights into the seismic cycle of the Chatkal segment and propose the 1946 earthquake for the most recent faulting event in the region.

How to cite: Rizza, M., Léa, P., and Jules, F.: Unveiling the Surface Rupture of the 1946 Chatkal Earthquake (Mw 7.5, Tien Shan): Insights from Pleiades, UAV Imagery, and Trenching, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13813, 2025.

EGU25-14410 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Updating megathrust coupling models for the Mentawai Seismic Gap and surrounding regions, Sumatra 

Mason Perry, Lujia Feng, Emma Hill, and Gina Sarkawi

Following the 2004 Mw 9.2 Sumatra-Andaman event, a series of earthquakes occurred along the Sunda megathrust of the Sumatran subduction zone, extending from the southern terminus of the 2004 rupture to Bengkulu. A notable exception is the Mentawai seismic gap, spanning from just south of the Batu Islands to Sipora for ~200 km in length. Historical records of regional seismicity from paleogeodetic measurements (i.e. coral microatolls) indicate that the last major event that ruptured the current seismic gap occurred in 1797. An adjacent patch ruptured in 1833, broadly coincident with the 2007 Bengkulu rupture. More recent M≥7 events surrounding the Mentawai seismic gap have occurred in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2023. However, slip distributions of these events show limited slip propagation into the gap and a significant slip deficit remains. Thus, a potential earthquake in the region poses a threat to local communities from both ground shaking, as well as a potential tsunami. Previous geodetic estimates of coupling in the region indicate low coupling at shallow depths on the megathrust. However, these estimates lack near-trench observations and ignore the influence of stress shadows originating from frictionally locked asperities downdip, and thus may underestimate the tsunami hazard, especially in light of the 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake that ruptured to the trench at depths of <6 km. Additionally, new estimates of long-term slip rates on the Sumatran Fault indicate the forearc sliver is deforming as rigid block and substantial oblique convergence is taken up within the oceanic plate. By correcting published geodetic velocities to remove the motion of the forearc sliver, we place updated constraints on subduction obliquity. Combining these observations with paleogeodetic uplift and subsidence rates, we invert for a coupling distribution on the Sunda megathrust, accounting for the effect of stress shadows, and constraining the coupling direction based on earthquake slip vectors. We find, in contrast to previous estimates, that the megathrust appears coupled to the trench. This coupled region extends from just north of Siberut south to the Pagai Islands and includes the region of the 2007 Bengkulu rupture. While the risk for large earthquakes in this region is relatively well known, our results indicate that the Mentawai seismic gap contains a strongly coupled patch that extends to the trench, suggesting that the tsunami hazard is significantly higher than inferred from previous coupling estimates. Additionally, this updated coupling model allows us to place new constraints on the influence of tectonics on regional sea level projections.

How to cite: Perry, M., Feng, L., Hill, E., and Sarkawi, G.: Updating megathrust coupling models for the Mentawai Seismic Gap and surrounding regions, Sumatra, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14410, 2025.

EGU25-14536 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Determining the Western Extent of the 1505 Central Himalayan Earthquake through a Paleoseismic Investigation of Surface Ruptures 

Mitchel Soederberg, Shreya Arora, Drew Cochran, and Gurvinder Singh

Earthquakes represent a significant hazard to human life, having claimed nearly a quarter of a million lives worldwide and strongly affecting an additional 125 million people between 1998 and 2017 (WHO). The Himalayan Front is an especially active continental collision zone spanning over 2500 kilometers across five countries, with its Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) producing surface ruptures at the southern leading edge of the front (Kumar et al, 2001). Although recent earthquakes have produced surface ruptures along eastern and western sections of the HFT, paleoseismic and historical investigations have not revealed any surface rupture-forming earthquakes in the central Himalayas since at least the 17th century (Arora and Malik, 2017). This gap raises the potential for a mega-earthquake (> Mw 8) in coming years (Wesnousky, 2020). Here, we share preliminary results from a paleoseismic investigation of an exposed river section on the central HFT adjacent to Shahjahanpur village, 20 km southwest of Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India (30° 12 '04.6"N, 77° 49' 39.6"E). Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bulk sediment dates in combination with river section interpretations will aid in evaluating the presence of surface ruptures related to a major 1505 earthquake event in this area, for which numerous historical accounts exist (Jackson, 2002). Implications of these results include an improved estimation of this event’s western lateral extent in conjunction with previous studies. This will allow for the calculation of a more accurate paleo magnitude for the 1505 earthquake, ultimately informing the region’s seismic hazard potential.

How to cite: Soederberg, M., Arora, S., Cochran, D., and Singh, G.: Determining the Western Extent of the 1505 Central Himalayan Earthquake through a Paleoseismic Investigation of Surface Ruptures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14536, 2025.

EGU25-16028 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Measuring slip rate variability on the Eşen Fault, SW Türkiye, with cosmogenic chlorine-36 nuclide analysis 

Natalie Forrest, Laura Gregory, Tim Craig, Tim Wright, Richard Shanks, Bora Uzel, and Elif Çam

Seismic hazard models often assume near-constant earthquake recurrence intervals on faults since the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 15,000 years ago. However, it is tricky to show that real fault systems exhibit this behaviour, particularly for distributed networks of normal faults in extensional regimes. Instead, data is limited to historical seismology records, which is likely over a much shorter time than earthquake recurrence intervals, or a single time-averaged Holocene slip rate from paleoseismology methods. Neither method measures slip rate variability over multiple earthquake cycles.

Cosmogenic nuclide analysis on limestone bedrock fault scarps, combined with Bayesian modelling, is an established method to interpret exhumation histories of normal faults since the Last Glacial Maximum. Production of chlorine-36 (36Cl) is primarily by interaction of calcium-40 in the limestone scarp with cosmic rays. Concentration profiles of 36Cl on a fault scarp therefore correlate with fault slip in earthquakes. Previous 36Cl studies demonstrate slip rate variability of normal faults in Italy and Türkiye.

We apply this technique to interpret the slip history of the Eşen Fault, a major normal fault in southwest Türkiye with no known historical seismicity. Bayesian models suggest the last major earthquake was 1000 years ago, but prior to that, there was a period of fast slip of 2-3 mm/yr, which exposed at least 5 m of scarp in 2-3 kyr. Before that, the slip rate was much lower, at about 1 mm/yr. These results demonstrate slip rate variability, which informs our understanding of fault dynamics over millennia, and may help to improve seismic hazard models.

How to cite: Forrest, N., Gregory, L., Craig, T., Wright, T., Shanks, R., Uzel, B., and Çam, E.: Measuring slip rate variability on the Eşen Fault, SW Türkiye, with cosmogenic chlorine-36 nuclide analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16028, 2025.

EGU25-16771 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Revisiting Rapid Surface Deformation in Southwestern Taiwan Using GNSS and ALOS-2 InSAR Data: Case study in Chungliao Tunnel 

I-Ting Wang, Kuo-En Ching, and Erwan Pathier

Under the assumption that the plate convergence rate is distributed across faults along the plate boundary, in the Chungliao Tunnel area of southwest Taiwan, the total surface velocity change between the Chegualin fault (CGLF) to the west and the Chishan fault (CSNF) to the east exceeds 90 mm/yr, which is larger than the palte convergence rate of approximately 82 mm/yr in Taiwan. However, the physical processes driving these high-rate deformation is still debated. As the deformation is mainly aseismic, and to increase the spatial resolution of the large-scale surface deformation field, we used GNSS and ALOS-2 InSAR to understand tectonic processes. To examine the spatial continuity of the ultra-rapid deformation beyond the Chungliao Tunnel, InSAR processing was conducted using ALOS-2 ascending and descending datasets to improve the spatial extension and resolution of surface deformation. We introduced a priori phase discontinuity at mapped fault trace by setting the temporal coherence to correct the unwrapping errors. Then several Line-Of-Sight (LOS) velocity discontinuities are consistent with fault traces, indicating shallow creep along those faults. Furthermore, we demonstrated the continuity of few-hundred meters of high deformation between the CGLF and the CSNF with LOS velocity of 30-40 mm/yr, a LOS velocity gradient of 20-30 mm/yr across two faults. A 3D velocity reconstruction inverted by combining GNSS and ALOS-2 InSAR result reveals a local counter-clockwise rotation from NW to SW align north to south and the significant uplift (~80 mm/yr) in the narrow band between the Chishan fault and Chegualin fault near the Chungliao Tunnel. The local deformation implies the opposite lateral components of CSNF and CGLF in different segments of two faults as well, providing precise constraints to enhance the tectonic interpretation of this area. This rapid deformation identified in the narrow zone may be resulting from the interaction between the thrust faults and the surrounding mobile shale, in agreement with the hypothesis of a mud diapir of large mud diatreme that developed in the thick two thrusts.

How to cite: Wang, I.-T., Ching, K.-E., and Pathier, E.: Revisiting Rapid Surface Deformation in Southwestern Taiwan Using GNSS and ALOS-2 InSAR Data: Case study in Chungliao Tunnel, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16771, 2025.

EGU25-17648 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Sedimentary records of past earthquakes in varved lake sediments 

Ayşegül Doğan and Ulaş Avşar

Lacustrine paleoseismology, which focuses on sedimentary traces of past earthquakes in lakes, has gained increasing attention over the past two decades, even though on-fault trenching remains the most common technique in paleoseismology. This field primarily investigates Mass Wasting Deposits (MWD) and Soft Sediment Deformation Structures (SSDS) in lake sediments. Additionally, catchment response (CR), characterized by a temporary increase in erosion rates within catchments due to strong ground motions, is another significant trace of past earthquakes in lake sediments. In this study, past earthquake traces were analyzed in 19 gravity cores (98.880-138.70 cm in length) retrieved from the varved sediments of Köyceğiz Lake. High-resolution elemental profiles and optical images were obtained using ITRAX micro-XRF core scanner. ITRAX optical and XRF data along one core was used to generate varve chronology, and Ca/Ti profiles of the other cores were used to chronostratigraphically correlate 19 cores. Although the region experienced several notable earthquakes over the past 600 years, no MWDs were identified in Köyceğiz sediments; instead, SSDS and CR were observed. Distinct anomalies in Cr/Ti profiles related to the 1959 earthquake were evident in all cores. Conversely, CR associated with a mid-19th-century earthquake was detected only in the northern basin, which has significantly larger catchment than the southern basin. SSDS, including faults, intraclast breccias and laminae disturbances were identified in Köyceğiz sediments. While some of these SSDS correlate temporally with historical earthquakes, most do not correlate either with seismic events or with each other. This implies that, contrary to what has been thought so far, SSDS formation may not be limited to the water-sediment interface but could also occur in deeper parts of the sequence. Moreover, the study indicates that the formation of SSDS may be controlled not only by peak ground acceleration (PGA) but also by peak ground displacement (PGD) due to earthquakes.

How to cite: Doğan, A. and Avşar, U.: Sedimentary records of past earthquakes in varved lake sediments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17648, 2025.

EGU25-17661 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Measuring rapid aseismic ground deformation within the foothills of southwestern Taiwan using aerial image correlation and DSM time series 

Kai-Feng Chen, Maryline Le Béon, Arthur Delorme, Yann Klinger, Ewelina Rupnik, Lulin Zhang, Erwan Pathier, Kuo-En Ching, and Marc Pierrot-Deseilligny

In southwestern Taiwan, about 45-50 mm/yr of westward shortening occurs across the 40-45 km wide fold-and-thrust belt, accompanied with tectonic extrusion towards the southwest. Within this broad framework, measurements from a local ground-based geodetic network revealed rapid ground deformation surrounding two sub-parallel geological thrust faults, located only 500 m apart. 50 mm/yr of shortening occurs on the western fault and 32 mm/yr of extension across the eastern one. In-between the faults, uplift relative to the east block increases eastward from 20 to 80 mm/yr. Sharp deformation gradients indicate aseismic slip on both structures. This remarkable deformation raises the question of the deep structure and mechanism at play: Is it driven by tectonic forces, possibly released as transient slip events? Or does it involve shale tectonics related to fluid overpressure within the mudstone formation that dominates the geology?

To investigate this phenomenon, we monitored ground deformation using image correlation for horizontal displacements and DSM time series for vertical displacements, aiming at high-resolution observations covering a wider area than the ground-based network. Eight sets of aerial images acquired from 2008 to 2015 were processed using the MicMac photogrammetric software. The resulting horizontal velocities are in good agreement with ground-based observations. The compressional gradient across the western fault (the Chegualin Fault) vanishes northward, but remains clearly visible towards the south, with an increasing right-lateral component. While we detect extension across the eastern fault (the Chishan Fault), precise location and quantification of the deformation gradient remains challenging due to poor correlation caused by dense vegetation. Elevation differences based on the DSMs derived from aerial images have a similar spatial pattern as ground-based observations, but the amplitudes are overestimated. On-going refinement in the processing and time series based on LiDAR datasets are expected to improve the results.

This work was complemented by the field survey of the numerous bedrock shear zones in the area to build a structural map of active structures. We confirm the Chegualin Fault as an active thrust fault, with an oblique component along its southern part. Extension across the Chishan Thrust is accommodated by SE-dipping en-echelon normal faults, found up to 1.4 km north of the ground-based network. The change in rake of the slickenlines indicates an increasing right-lateral component northward. While the pattern of horizontal velocities may fit with the regional tectonics, the hypothesis of a shale piercement so far best explains the ratio between uplift and shortening. Achieving a better imaging of the vertical deformation would help further discussing this assumption and eventually propose a structural model consistent with local and regional observations, which will also allow further assessing the associated natural hazards.

How to cite: Chen, K.-F., Le Béon, M., Delorme, A., Klinger, Y., Rupnik, E., Zhang, L., Pathier, E., Ching, K.-E., and Pierrot-Deseilligny, M.: Measuring rapid aseismic ground deformation within the foothills of southwestern Taiwan using aerial image correlation and DSM time series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17661, 2025.

EGU25-19066 | Posters on site | TS3.4

Potential record of large earthquakes from lacustrine sedimentary archives along the Bulnay fault system (Mongolia) 

Yann Klinger, Nicolas Pinzon Matapi, Pierre Sabatier, Edward Duarte, Jin-Hyuck Choi, Taehyung Kim, and Baatara Ga

On July 1905, two M~8 earthquakes occurred 14 days apart along the Bulnay Fault system, in northwestern Mongolia. These seismic events are among the largest recorded earthquakes in intracontinental regions. However, our current understanding of the earthquake behavior of the Bulnay Fault is quite limited due to the scarcity of paleoseismic data. Additionally, the geographic and climatic conditions of the region play a major key in permafrost development, posing challenges in the excavation of paleoseismological trenches and causing cryoturbation. Lacustrine environments, conversely, are isolated depositional systems that minimize the influence of external factors and provide high temporal resolution with continuous sedimentation. Here, we present our findings on earthquake-triggered turbidites of eight sedimentary cores collected from three lakes around the Bulnay Fault. These cores were analyzed using X-ray tomography, X-ray fluorescence, and hyperspectral imaging. We found that prior to the 1905 event, three large earthquakes ruptured the Bulnay Fault, with recurrence intervals of 1.5 to 3 kyr. By integrating our observations with previous paleoseismic trench investigations, we proposed that strain is primarily accommodated through large earthquakes along the Bulnay fault, and major events involving both the Bulnay and Tsetserleg faults, potentially analogous to the 1905 doublet.

How to cite: Klinger, Y., Pinzon Matapi, N., Sabatier, P., Duarte, E., Choi, J.-H., Kim, T., and Ga, B.: Potential record of large earthquakes from lacustrine sedimentary archives along the Bulnay fault system (Mongolia), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19066, 2025.

EGU25-19215 | ECS | Orals | TS3.4

Spatiotemporal Clustering of Large Earthquakes Along the Central‐Eastern Sections of the Altyn Tagh Fault, China 

Nicolas Pinzon Matapi, Yann Klinger, Xiwei Xu, Paul Tapponnier, Jing Liu‐Zeng, Jerome Van Der Woerd, Kang Li, and Mingxing Gao

The understanding of the spatial‐temporal distribution of past earthquakes is essential to assess the event recurrence behavior and to estimate the size of potential earthquakes along active strike‐slip fault systems. However, the scarcity of paleoseismic data remains a major hurdle in this endeavor. This is the case of the longest strike‐slip fault in Asia, the Altyn Tagh Fault (ATF). We documented six very likely large earthquakes that potentially ruptured the Aksay section of the ATF. Employing a Bayesian approach, we present modeled date ranges of 6339–5220 BC, 5296–4563 BC, 3026–2677 BC, 1324–808 BC, 314–632 AD, and 915– 1300 AD. The mean recurrence time is 1,329 ± 588 years with a coefficient of variation (COV) of ∼0.44. In the same fault section, 90 horizontal offsets record an average coseismic slip of 5.1 ± 1.4 m for the last event and suggest four older earthquakes plausibly with a similar slip distribution. Although at the local‐scale the COV indicates quasi‐periodic rupture behavior, the individual interevent times exhibit significant irregularity, a pattern also observed in adjacent fault sections (Xorxoli, Annanba and Tashi sections). We found that such irregularities are a natural consequence of long‐term fault interactions, which allow for synchronized ruptures along the northern and southern strands of the central‐eastern ATF. Our rupture model highlights bursty periods of seismic activity with mean interevent times of 475 ± 108 years separated by long‐lull periods of 1.1–1.6 kyr. Based on this temporal organization and considering the 401‐year elapsed time since the most recent event on the Xorxoli section, there exists a possibility of a forthcoming large earthquake occurring within the next century. 

How to cite: Pinzon Matapi, N., Klinger, Y., Xu, X., Tapponnier, P., Liu‐Zeng, J., Van Der Woerd, J., Li, K., and Gao, M.: Spatiotemporal Clustering of Large Earthquakes Along the Central‐Eastern Sections of the Altyn Tagh Fault, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19215, 2025.

EGU25-19994 | ECS | Posters on site | TS3.4

Preliminary Results of the Paleoseismology of Aceh Fault in northern Sumatra, Indonesia 

Gayatri Indah Marliyani, Yann Klinger, Wenqian Yao, Agung Setianto, Hurien Helmi, Telly Kurniawan, Rahmat Triyono, Andi Azhar Rusdin, Supriyanto Rohadi, and Dwikorita Karnawati

The Aceh Fault, part of Indonesia's Great Sumatran Fault System, exhibits recent faulting through prominent scarps along its 250-kilometer length. Running northwest-southeast, it spans northwestern Sumatra from Tripa to Banda Aceh, a city of over 268,000 residents. Understanding the complete faulting history is essential for assessing seismic risk, as instrumental records are too recent to capture long-term patterns. We study the fault by combining remote sensing using 8-m resolution DEM (DEMNAS) for the entire area and 15-cm resolution (LiDAR drone survey) for selected areas, field methods, and paleoseismology. We excavated two paleoseismic trenches across the fault and documented evidence of at least three well-dated ground-rupturing earthquakes from the upper 2 meters of strata spanning the last ~1000 years. The event chronology is constrained by 15 radiocarbon dates on detrital charchoal. This new paleoseismic data confirms that the Aceh Fault is active. Our study delineates the active trace of the fault zone and provides the first detailed information about significant prehistoric earthquakes along this fault. These findings improve seismic hazard maps and enhance understanding of the region's seismic risks.

How to cite: Marliyani, G. I., Klinger, Y., Yao, W., Setianto, A., Helmi, H., Kurniawan, T., Triyono, R., Rusdin, A. A., Rohadi, S., and Karnawati, D.: Preliminary Results of the Paleoseismology of Aceh Fault in northern Sumatra, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19994, 2025.

G4 – Satellite Gravimetry, Gravity and Magnetic Field Modeling

EGU25-2414 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

The Influence of Changing Sea Surface on the Gravity Field Derived from SWOT. 

Sun Heyuan, Tao Yongjin, and Li Jiancheng

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, with its short repeat period, is more sensitive to dynamic sea surface variations and more prone to introducing spurious signals. Therefore, considering time-varying effects is crucial when constructing a stable gravity field from SWOT data. This study explores the impact of these effects using model correction and stacking methods. The results show that incorporating time-varying effects enhances deflection of the vertical (DOV) by approximately 40% in high time-varying areas and improves gravity anomalies by 0.26 mGal (~9%). Furthermore, a single model-corrected cycle outperforms the accumulation of a year’s data in high-variability regions. In contrast, the stacking method introduces more outliers at the edges and nadir, making it less effective than the model correction method. Finally, the analysis of a 40°×40° region in the eastern Pacific highlights the need for corrections in regions where the standard deviation of the sea level anomaly exceeds 20 cm. This study demonstrates that accounting for time-varying effects can significantly improve the precision of DOV and gravity anomaly fields in high-variability areas, contributing to a more accurate marine gravity field.

How to cite: Heyuan, S., Yongjin, T., and Jiancheng, L.: The Influence of Changing Sea Surface on the Gravity Field Derived from SWOT., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2414, 2025.

Unconstrained monthly gravity field solutions of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) are predominantly influenced by correlated and high-frequency noise. To mitigate the effect of this noise, this paper proposes a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) filter (SF) that incorporates the spectral characteristics of a priori monthly gravity field signals and varying observation conditions throughout the entire GRACE period. The performance of the SF filter was evaluated through a comparative analysis with the DDK filter and a combination filter of Gaussian and P4M6 (Gauss+P4M6). Compared to DDK3 and Gauss+P4M6 filters, the SF filter exhibits an improved SNR in mass change estimation under observation conditions characterized by poor data quality, repeat ground track, and normal observation periods. In global scale analysis, SF filtering exhibits a noise reduction of 51% and 81%, while retaining stronger amplitude and trend signals than DDK3 and Gauss+P4M6 filtering. Especially in surrounding regions such as the Greenland, Central Africa, and Amazon River Basin, higher SNR is achieved by the proposed SF filtering method. In small-scale regions like Greenland Sub Basins and other river basins worldwide, mass changes estimated using SF filtering demonstrate a better agreement with those from CSR Mascon solutions or GLDAS models. For extended analysis, the SF filter was further applied to GRACE-FO monthly solutions including CSR RL06.2, ITSG-Grace_op, and COST-G Grace-FO RL02, consistently achieving improved SNR in mass change estimation with respect to the other two filters.

How to cite: Xuan, J., Chen, Q., Zhang, X., and Shen, Y.: A Signal-to-Noise Ratio Filter by Incorporating Spectral Characteristics of Temporal Gravity Field Signals and Varying GRACE Observation Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2442, 2025.

To investigate the influence of K-Band microwave ranging (KBR) and Laser Ranging Interferometer (LRI) inter-satellite range-rates from the GRACE-FO mission on the recovery of gravity fields, we explores two distinct methods for accelerometer scale estimation, namely diagonal matrix parameterization and full matrix parameterization. Integrating both KBR and LRI data from GRACE-FO into gravity field recovery, we have derived six new time series of monthly gravity field solutions based on two different accelerometer calibration approaches, entitled KBRLRI_Com (incorporating both KBR and LRI data), KBR_Only (using pure KBR data), LRI_Only (solely utilizing LRI data) truncate to degree and order 60 over the period from January 2019 to June 2022. Analyses of KBRLRI_Com, KBR_Only, and LRI_Only reveal the following findings: (1) LRI demonstrates significant advantages over KBR in both diagonal and full scale matrix scenarios, across the time and frequency domains, which shows lower root mean square (RMS) values of the post-fit residuals in the time domain and substantially lower noise at higher frequencies; (2) the comparison between KBRLRI_Com, KBR_Only, and LRI_Only in terms of geoid degree error suggests that KBRLRI_Com agrees well with KBR_Only and LRI_Only at the low degrees (below degree 30), while effectively reducing the high-frequency noise, especially when the diagonal scale matrices are employed; the benefit of KBRLRI_Com solution is mainly attributed to the enhanced quantity of ranging observations. (3) by analyzing the signal and noise over the globe, ocean, Australian continent, and Amazon and Ganges river basins, we find that KBRLRI_Com is highly consistent with KBR_Only and LRI_Only in terms of spatial signals, while KBRLRI_Com exhibits less spatial noise; when employing diagonal and full matrices, the noise of gravity field solutions derived by incorporating LRI data is mitigated by 8.8% and 3.9% over the global ocean compared to KBR_Only, as well as 7.6% and 3.2% in the Australian continent; especially in the diagonal matrix case, the incorporation of LRI measurements for calculating monthly gravity fields results in a more pronounced decrease of spatial noise. (4) in the oceanic region, KBR_Only and LRI_Only have average RMS values of 11.3 cm and 11.6 cm in diagonal matrices, respectively, and 10.2cm and 11.6cm in the full matrix, indicating a generally comparable level of accuracy between the two models.

How to cite: Shen, Z., Chen, Q., Nie, Y., Shen, Y., and Zhang, X.: Contribution Analysis of the Addition of Laser Ranging Interferometry on GRACE-FO Gravity Field Estimation under Different Accelerometer Calibration Schemes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2488, 2025.

EGU25-3947 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Enhancing GRACE-FO Orbit Accuracy Using OpenIFS Weather Model through Accelerometer Transplant and Tropospheric Delay Correction 

Sanam Motlaghzadeh, Felix Öhlinger, Angel Navarro Trastoy, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, and Heikki Järvinen

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-on (GRACE-FO) is a gravity field retrieval mission consisting of two identical satellites orbiting the Earth since 2018. Each satellite is equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, a microwave ranging system, and an accelerometer (ACC) to measure non-gravitational accelerations. The data from these instruments, alongside the estimations of gravitational force models, are used to determine the satellites' orbits. Soon after launching, one of the satellite’s ACC degraded, and its data was replaced with ACC data transplant, a synthetic data derived from simulations and the other twin satellite’s ACC data. The default data used for orbit determination of GRACE-FO satellites includes Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems (CERES) climatology for ACC data transplant and Vienna Mapping Function 3 (VMF3) for tropospheric error correction in GPS observation processing. In this study, we propose a novel approach that uses the Open Integrated Forecasting System (OpenIFS) weather model to account for both ACC transplant and tropospheric delay correction, and in the end, assessed the accuracy of GRACE-FO satellites’ orbits. Orbit determination for GPS satellites was conducted with tropospheric slant delays derived from OpenIFS, using data from 256 stations. Then, the precise orbits of GRACE-FO satellites were estimated using the GPS precise orbits as well as the gravitational and non-gravitational forces acting on the satellites. The ACC transplant was performed by the Technical University of Graz, using the OpenIFS-derived simulated non-gravitational accelerations. This method demonstrates an overall 4 cm improvement in orbit accuracy compared to the traditional method, as it offers a more realistic ACC simulation by explaining the rapid changes of atmosphere affecting the GRACE-FO orbit. OpenIFS provides a greater temporal resolution compared to VMF3 and compensates for the asymmetric atmosphere; thus, the GPS orbit is more precise. The largest accuracy improvement occurred in the along-track direction. This is likely due to a more accurate representation of the radiative effects caused by the satellite entering and exiting Earth's shadow, which typically has the most significant effect on along-track accelerations and, consequently, on the satellite's orbit in this direction.

How to cite: Motlaghzadeh, S., Öhlinger, F., Navarro Trastoy, A., Mayer-Gürr, T., and Järvinen, H.: Enhancing GRACE-FO Orbit Accuracy Using OpenIFS Weather Model through Accelerometer Transplant and Tropospheric Delay Correction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3947, 2025.

EGU25-4096 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions 

Marius Schlaak and Roland Pail

The existing observation record of satellite gravity missions spans more than two decades and is already closing in on the minimum time series of 30 years needed to decouple natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms according to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The next generation of gravity field missions (GRACE-C, NGGM) are expected to be launched within this decade. These missions as well as their combination (MAGIC) are setting high anticipation for an enhanced monitoring capability that will improve the spatial and temporal resolutions of gravity observations significantly. They will allow an evaluation of long-term trends in the Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) signal.

This contribution shows numerical closed-loop simulation results of a GRACE-type in-line single-pair missions and MAGIC double-pair missions with realistic noise assumptions for the key payload, tidal and non-tidal background model errors. To enable the analysis of multi-decadal observations, the reduced scale simulation following the acceleration approach are performed. The gravity signal in the simulations is based on modeled mass transport time series of components of the TWS, obtained from future climate projections until the year 2100 following the shared socio-economic pathway scenario 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5). It evaluates different parameter models, among them the recoverability of long-term climate trends, annual amplitude, and phase of the TWS employing closed-loop numerical simulations of the different constellations. Special emphasis shall be given on the robustness of the estimated TWS long-term-trend for different parameter models applied in different simulation scenarios, systematic changes, as well as on the methodology of the simulation themselves.

How to cite: Schlaak, M. and Pail, R.: Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4096, 2025.

EGU25-4169 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

Evaluation and Tuning of Mascon Approach for Temporal Gravity Field Recovery 

Simon Schiller, Marius Schlaak, Huiyi Wu, and Roland Pail

Satellite gravity missions are unique observation systems to directly observe mass transport processes in the Earth system. This study investigates innovative approaches for resolving Earth's gravitational field using mass concentration models (mascons) as an alternative to spherical harmonic synthesis. The primary objective is to systematically evaluate strategies and concepts to optimize temporal and spatial gravity field recovery.

This contribution investigates the theoretical foundations of mascon approaches, with detailed analysis of their mathematical and geometric properties. Functional and stochastic models are derived, focusing on three main approaches: Lumped Spherical Harmonics, point masses, and spherical cap mascons (primarily considered conceptually). This selection enables a comparative evaluation of different geometric structures, showcasing the advantages of discrete methods over continuous ones.

A key feature of this study is an automated simulation algorithm integrating spherical harmonic synthesis and mascon models. The algorithm executes a four-step process: orbit dynamics computation, observation simulation, noise handling, and adjustment. This enables global solution computation validated against a reference model, as well as precise subpixel analyses for targeted regional investigations. Results demonstrate the advantages of mascon approaches for regional resolution, including enhanced coastal densification to address leakage effects and detailed studies of regions like the Amazon basin.

Simulations based on a de-aliasing model and the observational geometry of a GRACE-like single-pair mission indicate that mascon approaches achieve near-complete signal recovery with high stability and accuracy. Deviations, expressed in millimeters of Equivalent Water Height (EWH), allow attribution to specific gravity field components. Global equiareal models exhibit minimal deviations (~15 mm), surpassing spherical harmonics in stability due to the combination of basis functions and regularization. Regional analyses reproduce structures with method-dependent deviations up to 40 mm, while highlighting challenges related to subpixel analyses. Incorporating additional grids and constraints to enhance signal recovery increases model complexity. The point mass approach proves especially robust, whereas Lumped Spherical Harmonics show quality declines in specific cases. The results meet current standards of conventional mascon models and reveal significant optimization potential. Future research should focus on refining regularization methods, expanding the data foundation, and integrating additional basis functions to further improve simulation accuracy and application outcomes.

How to cite: Schiller, S., Schlaak, M., Wu, H., and Pail, R.: Evaluation and Tuning of Mascon Approach for Temporal Gravity Field Recovery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4169, 2025.

EGU25-5253 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

In the Shadow of Large Gravity Anomalies - Recovering Useful Gravity Data for Geologic Exploration 

Daniel Kahn, Bernd Milkereit, Carl-Georg Bank, and Hernan Ugalde

The Nash Creek area in Northern New Brunswick, Canada, is home to a blind Zinc Lead Silver sulphide deposit hosted within a complex Ordovician-Devonian rift system. Extensive exploration of the area over several decades has resulted in a varied set of data at multiple scales, including – but not limited to – magnetic, radiometric, and high resolution LIDAR DEM data at the regional scale and TEM, resistivity, and high resolution terrestrial gravity data at the local scale. Additionally, approximately 400 boreholes have been drilled and logged over and around the known extents of the mineral deposit. This has also resulted in a comprehensive petrophysical database, including the densities of different rock units. Despite this wealth of data, many questions about the geology of the area remain unresolved, and the deposit is poorly constrained. This is in large part due to a thick layer of overburden blanketing the region, rendering existing geological maps ambiguous. Moreover, the gravity data has been difficult to incorporate as it shows a steep gradient over the region.

 

In order to best characterize this gradient, large scale regional gravity data must be analysed. Unfortunately, geodetic control stations (GCSs) are sparse within the region. Thus, we turn to a satellite derived global gravity model (GGM) to get a picture of the regional gravitational field. Using the GGM, we see that a large positive gravity anomaly of approximately 20 mGal lies directly to the west of the study area, and a similarly sized negative anomaly lies just to the east. Over the study area itself, the regional field changes at a rate of roughly 1.62 mGal/km. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the optimal method to remove this gravity gradient from our high resolution dataset. We characterize the regional field by combining the GCS data with the GGM, and then use this regional field approximation to isolate the residual field in our high-resolution gravity dataset. We then compare the results to those attained using other methods, such as the upward continuation method of regional field approximation.

 

Another goal of this study is to study the source(s) of this distinctive gravitational feature. We do this by using mass excess/deficiency calculations, and by incorporating regional magnetic, radiometric, and geologic data into our interpretation. We also compare this feature to other similar large scale gravity anomalies. Studying the cause of the gravity anomaly at Nash Creek can help to achieve a better understanding of the regional geologic history, and potentially help to identify the most promising approaches for geophysical exploration in this complex geological setting.

How to cite: Kahn, D., Milkereit, B., Bank, C.-G., and Ugalde, H.: In the Shadow of Large Gravity Anomalies - Recovering Useful Gravity Data for Geologic Exploration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5253, 2025.

EGU25-5502 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Computation of a global mascon solution from satellite gravimetry data 

Zhengwen Yan, Jiangjun Ran, and Pavel Ditmar

We present an innovative global mass concentration (mascon) solution, "GCL-Mascon2024", derived using the short-arc approach to estimate spatially enhanced mass variations on the Earth's surface. This monthly solution is based on K-/Ka-band ranging (KBR) satellite-to-satellite tracking data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Compared to contemporary GRACE mascon solution computations, we introduce three key advancements: (1) a frequency-dependent data weighting strategy to mitigate low-frequency noise in the satellite observations; (2) a variable-shaped mascon geometry incorporating physical constraints such as coastlines and river basin boundaries to reduce signal leakage and better capture temporal gravity variations; and (3) a regularization scheme integrating climate factors and cryospheric elevation models to address the ill-posed nature of mascon estimation. Temporal signals from GCL-Mascon2024 show 7% to 20% lower residuals over continental regions compared to Release-06 (RL06) mascon solutions from GSFC, CSR, and JPL. For various river basins, GCL-Mascon2024 solutions reduce random noise over non-humid river basins by 37% relative to contemporary mascon products. In desert regions, residual analyses after removing climatological components reveal that GCL-Mascon2024 and JPL RL06 solutions are roughly equivalent in accuracy, with a 28% noise reduction compared to GSFC and CSR RL06 solutions. This study underscores the potential of GCL-Mascon2024 to enhance the accuracy of gravity field solutions, offering valuable insights into global mass variations, which is of importance for various geoscience applications.

How to cite: Yan, Z., Ran, J., and Ditmar, P.: Computation of a global mascon solution from satellite gravimetry data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5502, 2025.

EGU25-5676 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Towards a new release of the combined global gravity field model GOCO: Preliminary results 

Felix Öhlinger, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, Sandro Krauss, Patrick Dumitraschkewitz, Andreas Strasser, Barbara Süsser-Rechberger, and Cornelia Tieber-Hubmann

Global models of the Earth's static gravity field are crucial for geophysical and geodetic applications such as oceanography, tectonics, and global reference systems. The combined global gravity field model GOCO2025 is the latest release of the GOCO* series and is derived solely from satellite observations. Data from the dedicated satellite gravimetry missions GRACE, GRACE-FO, and GOCE as well as satellite laser ranging observations and kinematic orbits of geodetic satellites are used to determine a static gravity field together with a regularized trend, an annual and a semi-annual oscillation. Starting with GRACE in 2002 the time series spans more than 20 years of data from satellite missions with complementary observation principles, which allows for the determination of a high-accuracy gravity field model with the best possible spatial resolution.

The unique instrumentation on GRACE-FO with two independent inter-satellite ranging systems (laser ranging interferometer (LRI) and K/Ka band ranging instrument (KBR)) that operate simultaneously allows for the determination of a stochastic model taking the cross-correlation between the instruments into account by using variance component estimation. This modeling approach results in formal errors of the spherical harmonic coefficients that align well with empirical estimates which is crucial for a combination with other data types and uncertainty propagation. The significantly higher measurement precision of the LRI compared to the KBR is especially beneficial for determining high-degree spherical harmonics. Proper stochastic modeling of all the input data results in realistic accuracy information for the derived combined gravity field solution (represented by a full variance-covariance matrix) that is crucial for further combination with, for example, terrestrial gravity data.

Consistent and up-to-date background models are used in the combination process of the different satellite data sets. A combined ocean tide model (GOT5.6 + FES2022 + TIME22) and additional corrections to this model, estimated over the entire GRACE/GRACE-FO time series, are employed and uncertainty information of the Atmosphere and Ocean De-Aliasing Level-1B product (AOD1BRL07) is incorporated in the estimation of short time gravity variations within the least-squares adjustment.

How to cite: Öhlinger, F., Mayer-Gürr, T., Krauss, S., Dumitraschkewitz, P., Strasser, A., Süsser-Rechberger, B., and Tieber-Hubmann, C.: Towards a new release of the combined global gravity field model GOCO: Preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5676, 2025.

EGU25-5691 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Updating the ESA Earth System Model for Future Gravity Mission Simulation Studies: ESA ESM 3.0 

Linus Shihora, Volker Klemann, Laura Jensen, Robert Dill, Lone Stumpe, Yoshiyuki Tanaka, Ingo Sasgen, Bert Wouters, and Henryk Dobslaw

The ESA Earth System Model (ESA ESM; Dobslaw et al., 2015) is widely applied as a source model in end-to-end simulation studies for future gravity missions but has been also utilised to study novel gravity observing concepts on the ground. The model provides a synthetic time-variable global gravity field that includes realistic mass variations in the atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial water storage, continental ice sheets and the solid Earth for a variety of spatial and temporal frequencies. With the continuous development of the next gravity missions such as GRACE-C and NGGM / MAGIC, the ESM should provide a wide range of signals at spatial scales which might not have been reliably observed by currently active missions.

In this contribution, we present the first steps towards version 3.0 of the ESA ESM. The projected changes include an update of the atmosphere and ocean components, a small ensemble of co- and post-seismic earthquake signals, an updated GIA model, and additional mass balance signals from previously not considered Arctic glaciers. Extreme hydrometeorological events as well as climate-driven and anthropogenic impacts on continental water storage will be represented through an update of the hydrological component. Additionally, the ESM will separately include ocean bottom pressure variations along the western slope of the Atlantic, representing variations in the meridional overturning circulation. ESA ESM 3.0 will be available with 6 hourly resolution from January 2007 until December 2020. It will be also augmented with synthetic error time-series to facilitate stochastical modelling of residual background model errors.

Dobslaw, H., Bergmann-Wolf, I., Dill, R., Forootan, E., Klemann, V., Kusche, J., & Sasgen, I. (2015). The updated ESA Earth System Model for future gravity mission simulation studies. Journal of Geodesy, 89(5), 505–513. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-014-0787-8

How to cite: Shihora, L., Klemann, V., Jensen, L., Dill, R., Stumpe, L., Tanaka, Y., Sasgen, I., Wouters, B., and Dobslaw, H.: Updating the ESA Earth System Model for Future Gravity Mission Simulation Studies: ESA ESM 3.0, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5691, 2025.

EGU25-5751 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

Gravity field recovery and acceleremeter calibrarion for GOCE precise orbit determination 

Juanxia Pan, Xiancai Zou, MinXing Zhao, Bingshi Liu, and Han Liu

Gravity satellites play an essential role in the recovery of the Earth’s gravitational field. The satellites are equipped with kinds of instruments, each installed at predetermined locations within the satellite’s framework, designed to meet various mission requirements. It is necessary to correct the observations from different instruments location to the satellite’s center of mass for the precise orbit determination. This implies that the accurate determination of various baseline lengths within the satellite is crucial, such as the correction from the antenna phase center and the accelerometer’s center to the satellite’s center of mass.

This study focuses on the GOCE satellite and discusses the satellite gravimetry measurement mode when there is an offset between the accelerometer and the satellite’s center of mass. In this study, the satellite’s orbit, accelerometer calibration coefficients, and gravitational field potential coefficients are simultaneously estimated using the dynamic orbit determination methods. Preliminary results indicate the influence of the GOCE satellite’s HL-SST observations on the gravitational field, and accurate center offset parameters play a positive role in the recovery of gravitational field model. Combining the HL-SST observations and LL-SST KBR observations from the GRACE satellites, the accuracy of the upgraded gravity field model is consistent with the state-of-the-art international gravity field model.

How to cite: Pan, J., Zou, X., Zhao, M., Liu, B., and Liu, H.: Gravity field recovery and acceleremeter calibrarion for GOCE precise orbit determination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5751, 2025.

EGU25-5998 | Orals | G4.1

Global ocean mass estimates from GRACE and GRACE-FO, evolution and error analysis. 

Ernst Schrama and Wouter van der Wal

This study is concerned with the total rate of mass change in the oceans as seen by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions between Mar-2002 extending to beyond 2023 into the GRACE-FO observation window. We use the same monthly source data in the form of level-2 spherical harmonic coefficients  and find that the selected glacial isostatic adjustment models, ocean mask definitions, and other de-aliasing corrections have a significant effect on the outcome of the barystatic ocean mass rates. In addition to the ICE6G models, and GIA models by Caron and Ivins we also implement GIA models derived from a 3D model forced by ICE-7G ice history. In the end we find barystatic ocean mass rates of change varying between 1.5 to 2.4 mm/yr. The relevance of this result is that the mass component of the sea level change has a larger uncertainty than that we earlier expected. Our conclusion is that it is more difficult to close the sea level budget  which involves ocean volume estimates from satellite altimetry, density estimates from Argo profiling float data and the mass component of sea level changes observed by satellite gravimetry.

How to cite: Schrama, E. and van der Wal, W.: Global ocean mass estimates from GRACE and GRACE-FO, evolution and error analysis., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5998, 2025.

EGU25-6275 | Posters on site | G4.1

Evaluating static gravity field models using GUT 

Per Knudsen, Americo Ambrozio, and Marco Restano

The GOCE User Toolbox GUT was originally developed for the utilisation and analysis of GOCE products to support applications in Geodesy, Oceanography and Solid Earth Physics. GUT consists of a series of advanced computer routines that carry out the required computations without requiring expert knowledge of geodesy. Hence, with its advanced computer routines for handling the gravity field information rigorously, GUT may support the MAGIC mission in developing Level-2 and Level-3 products.

In this presentation examples of GUT applications using recent models are presented. Various quantities associated with the gravity field are computed and inter-compared to assess the models and describe their capabilities. In addition, GUT tools for the computation of the dynamic ocean topography and the associated geostrophic surface currents are applied.

How to cite: Knudsen, P., Ambrozio, A., and Restano, M.: Evaluating static gravity field models using GUT, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6275, 2025.

The temporal gaps in the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions present significant challenges for analyzing Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) anomalies. This study employs Convolutional-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) neural networks to bridge these gaps, enabling effective drought characterization in major Indian river basins. This approach integrates GRACE-TWS data with meteorological and climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, runoff, evapotranspiration, and vegetation to generate reconstructed TWS anomalies. The reconstructed groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) were validated using 4,431 in-situ observation wells, with Pearson’s correlation coefficient (PR) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) as metrics. Non-perennial river basins like the Mahanadi, Godavari, and Krishna exhibited the best validation results (PR = 0.6–0.86; NRMSE = 0.1–0.2) compared to the perennial basins such as Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Indus demonstrated relatively weaker validation performance (PR = 0.2–0.7; NRMSE = 0.1–0.5). Further, the reconstructed GRACE-GWS helped in identifying new drought events alongside previously documented occurrences, corroborating findings from existing literature. Notably, new hydrological droughts were detected during the gap period between GRACE and GRACE-FO (2017–2018) in the Krishna, Cauvery, and Pennar basins, influencing drought characteristics such as severity and frequency. The gap period droughts are of D0 to D2 category based on United States Drought Monitor (USDM), and occurrences can be justified by decline of NE monsoon. Overall, the reconstructed TWS dataset provided continuous data, particularly for the gap periods, significantly enhancing the identification and analysis of drought occurrences.

How to cite: Gangumalla, S. R., Dutta, S., and Yadav, M.: Reconstructing GRACE-Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies Using CNN-LSTM Neural Networks for Effective Drought Characterization in Major Indian River Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6356, 2025.

EGU25-6720 * | Orals | G4.1 | Highlight

Towards 30-years of mass change observations: GRACE Follow-On extended mission phase, and GRACE-Continuity developments  

Frank Flechtner, David Wiese, Felix Landerer, Mike Gross, Krzysztof Snopek, Sebastian Fischer, Himanshu Save, Christopher Mccullough, Srinivas Bettadpur, and Robert Gaston

The GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, a partnership between NASA (US) and GFZ (Germany), successfully completed its nominal five-year prime mission phase in May 2023, and is currently in its extended mission phase. GRACE-FO continues the unique essential climate data record of mass change in the Earth system initiated in 2002 by the GRACE mission (2002-2017). The combined GRACE & GRACE-FO data records now span 23 years and provide foundational observations of monthly to decadal global mass changes and transports in the Earth system derived from temporal variations in the Earth’s gravity field.  In parallel, as part of NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO), a continuity mission called GRACE-Continuity (GRACE-C) scheduled for launch end of 2028 is being developed in partnership between NASA (US) and DLR (Germany), leveraging heritage elements considerably in the design.  One departure from heritage, is that the primary ranging instrument on GRACE-C will be a higher precision laser interferometer, capitalizing on the successful demonstration of this technology on GRACE-FO.  In this presentation, we will present updates on GRACE-FO in the context of satellite operations, data processing, and science/applications highlights, along with updates on the development of GRACE-C, which is meanwhile in Phase C and approaching the Critical Design Review in May 2025.  Prospects for achieving gap-free continuity between GRACE-FO and GRACE-C will be presented.

How to cite: Flechtner, F., Wiese, D., Landerer, F., Gross, M., Snopek, K., Fischer, S., Save, H., Mccullough, C., Bettadpur, S., and Gaston, R.: Towards 30-years of mass change observations: GRACE Follow-On extended mission phase, and GRACE-Continuity developments , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6720, 2025.

EGU25-6797 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Can the Spire GNSS-RO CubeSats Constellation Observe Earth's Gravity Field? 

Parisa Shafiei and Sajad Tabibi

Dual-frequency GNSS data from onboard Precise Orbit Determination (POD) antennas has emerged as a promising tool for investigating the time-variable components of Earth's gravity field. Over the past two decades, POD antennas onboard Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites have significantly advanced the study of the long-wavelength components of Earth's gravity field. CubeSats, a commonly used class of nanosatellites, now support a wide range of geodetic and non-geodetic applications while maintaining minimal costs, mass, and power requirements. In this context, the Spire CubeSats constellation, comprising over 100 CubeSats, offers potential contributions to the study of Earth’s long-wavelength gravity field components. This study uses precise orbit solutions of Spire GNSS-RO CubeSats, determined via the raw observation approach, to derive Earth's gravity field solutions using the short-arc approach for 2020. While this technique has been previously applied to scientific LEO satellite missions, this marks its first application to commercial CubeSats. Monthly gravity field solutions are calculated for each Flight Module (FM) using consistent parametrization. On average, geoid height differences between the individual gravity field solutions and the GOCO06s model are within ±2 cm. The individual Spire gravity solutions from each FM are further combined using the Variance Component Estimation (VCE) approach at the normal equation (NEQ) level. The quality of both individual and combined Spire GNSS-RO-based monthly gravity field solutions is compared with the ITSG-GRACE gravity field model.

How to cite: Shafiei, P. and Tabibi, S.: Can the Spire GNSS-RO CubeSats Constellation Observe Earth's Gravity Field?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6797, 2025.

EGU25-7105 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

GRACE and GRACE-FO Level 2 RL07 data processing at JPL 

Matthias Ellmer, David Wiese, Da Kuang, Felix Landerer, Carmen Blackwooed, Christopher McCullough, Dah-Ning Yuan, Eugene Fahnestock, and Athina Peidou

The RL07 series of GRACE gravity field products generated at JPL is a reprocessing of updated Level 1 data for the entire mission duration. Some aspects of the Level 2 processing have been updated from the RL06 series, in an effort to improve solution quality and uncertainty quantification.

Level 2 processing improvements include the co-estimation and use of full observation covariance matrices for both GPS and inter-satellite ranging KBR observations, and the use of an updated background field (GOCO06s) and other models. The updates ensure consistency and continuity with the GRACE-FO data record, which is processed using the same standards.

We present time series and analysis of these new fields, and compare them to the previously released JPL RL06 series of gravity field solutions, showing higher fidelity in formal errors, and improvements in solution noise levels.

How to cite: Ellmer, M., Wiese, D., Kuang, D., Landerer, F., Blackwooed, C., McCullough, C., Yuan, D.-N., Fahnestock, E., and Peidou, A.: GRACE and GRACE-FO Level 2 RL07 data processing at JPL, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7105, 2025.

EGU25-9565 | Posters on site | G4.1

CRA-LICOM: A global high-frequency atmospheric and oceanic temporal gravity field product (2002-2024) 

Jiahui Bai, Fan Yang, Hailong Liu, and Weihang Zhang

The sub-daily high-frequency Earth gravity signal, dominated by atmospheric and oceanic mass change, is essential for understanding weather and climate change. It also serves as a fundamental data set for almost all existing terrestrial or space-borne geodetic observations, enabling the separation of desired signals. In particular, it provides unique input for satellite gravimetry such as GRACE, and GRACE-FO, to prevent the aliasing error, which is deemed the largest error source of existing missions and future next-generation gravity missions as well. Therefore, it is also called a de-aliasing product.

However, since establishing a global observation network to monitor/capture the high-frequency gravity signal is impractical, ongoing efforts are made to simulate such signals by driving the atmosphere/oceanic numerical model with a specific climate forcing field and assimilating observational data. By using the recently released CRA-40 (the 40-year global reanalysis dataset released by China Meteorological Administration) as the forcing field, we managed to drive the in-house 3-D atmospheric integration model and the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model 3.0 (LICOM3.0) to reproduce a new high-frequency atmospheric and oceanic gravity de-aliasing product, called CRA-LICOM. It has a resolution of 6-hourly@50 km and covers the global domain from 2002 to 2024.

Due to the new data source and numerical models, CRA-LICOM can be deemed completely independent from the official product for GRACE, which helps in understanding the realistic uncertainty of high-frequency gravity signals. The atmospheric tidal and non-tidal components from CRA-LICOM show high consistency with the GFZ product, and ocean bottom pressure biases are minimal in most global ocean regions, with notable exceptions in the marginal seas near continental shelves. Furthermore, CRA-LICOM demonstrates a high correlation (>0.8) in Stokes coefficients with the GFZ official product until degree 20. Temporal gravity field recovery from GRACE using CRA-LICOM also aligns well with GRACE official products. Scientific applications that aim to understand the fast-changing global water cycle, as well as mission design of future satellite gravimetry that seeks accurate gravity de-aliasing, would benefit from our product. The data will be freely available at https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/.

How to cite: Bai, J., Yang, F., Liu, H., and Zhang, W.: CRA-LICOM: A global high-frequency atmospheric and oceanic temporal gravity field product (2002-2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9565, 2025.

EGU25-10128 | Orals | G4.1

Towards understanding the measurements of the GRACE FO electrostatic accelerometers 

Jakob Flury, Igor Koch, and Mathias Frye

Some of the most prominent anomalies and open questions concerning the measurements of the ultrasensitive accelerometers on both GRACE FO spacecraft are related to the activation of attitude thrusters. As a consequence, measurements around thruster activations are replaced by modeled data for the GFO1 accelerometer, while the complete measurements are replaced by modeled or hybrid data for GFO2. Motivated by this unsatisfactory situation, we present results of a detailed study on the characterization of the accelerometer response to thruster impulses, for both the GFO1 and GFO2 instruments. The study describes the impulse response in angular accelerations (for the first time), in linear accelerations as well as in the six electrode control voltages of each instrument. For GFO1, we find a realistic impulse response for some thruster pairs. For other pairs, parts of the impulse response are obscured by switch effects. For GFO2, we see similar features as for GFO1, which are, however, superimposed by heavy jumps and drifts that are triggered by the activation. We demonstrate how the stacking of measurements from many events allows to distinguish relevant details in the impulse response and their changes over time. We expect that the results will help to constrain the sources of the anomalies and lead to a better understanding of the motion and control of the accelerometer test masses.

How to cite: Flury, J., Koch, I., and Frye, M.: Towards understanding the measurements of the GRACE FO electrostatic accelerometers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10128, 2025.

EGU25-10957 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

SWOT-Derived Geometric Marine Geoid Surface complements Gravimetric Geoid Modelling approaches 

Aleksei Kupavoh, Artu Ellmann, Nicole Delpeche-Ellmann, and Sander Varbla

This research investigates the synergy of utilizing sea surface height (SSH) measurements from the non-dedicated Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) altimetry mission in conjunction with hydrodynamic models and in-situ measurements. The SSH and geoid are linked through dynamic topography (DT), which can be obtained from hydrodynamic models. The method considers satellite altimetry and modelled data to be reasonably accurate so that the static geometric marine geoid surface can be derived (i.e., geoid = SSH - DT). The application of this method not only enhances existing geometric geoid models but also has the potential to assist in deriving new ones in regions where current geoid models are inaccurate and of lower quality due to gravity data deficiencies. The proposed method is tested in the Baltic Sea, where accurate geoid models are available, as well as in areas near and inside the Russian sea border, where the lack of in-situ gravity measurements causes inaccuracies in gravimetric geoid modelling.

A critical aspect of the proposed approach is in the validation phase, where the SWOT-derived geoidal heights are compared with (i) marine geoid models of the Baltic Sea (e.g., NKG2015, BSCD2000), (ii) geoidal heights obtained from precise airborne laser scanning, and (iii) shipborne GNSS measurements.

The results demonstrate that by utilizing KaRIn data (L2_LR_SSH, Basic, 2×2 km grid), it is possible to identify and quantify errors in areas lacking gravity data, revealing discrepancies of a few decimeters in existing geoid models. In summary, SWOT-derived geometric geoid has the potential to compete with existing Baltic Sea marine geoid models that have an accuracy of around 3 cm. The results indicate that KaRIn altimeter data can help determine the marine geoid surface with sufficient accuracy of 5 cm or even better. The methodology explored with the synergy of datasets paves the way for novel opportunities for geometric geoid determination for other sea areas globally. This is especially useful for maritime activities, climate research, and navigation opportunities.

How to cite: Kupavoh, A., Ellmann, A., Delpeche-Ellmann, N., and Varbla, S.: SWOT-Derived Geometric Marine Geoid Surface complements Gravimetric Geoid Modelling approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10957, 2025.

EGU25-11578 | Posters on site | G4.1

Spatio-temporal Wiener filtering of GRACE/-FO solutions 

Paul Rebischung, Kevin Gobron, Gabin Bourlon, Louis-Marie Gauer, and Kristel Chanard

Monthly estimates of the Earth’s gravity field based on the GRACE/-FO missions have enabled decisive progress in the quantification and understanding of mass transfers in the Earth system. However, raw level 2 GRACE/-FO solutions are affected by large errors in the form of North-South stripes. Several filtering methods have been developed to isolate the gravity signal from these errors, based on either spatial covariance models of the signal and errors (gaussian filters, DDK filters), or on statistical decomposition techniques (PCA, ICA, SSA, M-SSA). This presentation introduces a new filtering method that relies on both the temporal and spatial structures of the signal and errors.

In the temporal domain, a spectral analysis of the GRACE/-FO Stokes coefficient time series suggests that they may be modeled as the sum of:

  • linear trends,
  • seasonal (annual and semi-annual) variations,
  • ~160-day periodic variations,
  • temporally uncorrelated aperiodic variations (white noise),
  • temporally correlated aperiodic variations that may be described by a power-law stochastic process.

Assuming that the linear trends, seasonal variations, and time-correlated aperiodic variations reflect gravity signal, that this signal is spatially isotropic, while the ~160-day variations and white noise are errors, we construct a spatio-temporal Wiener filter of the GRACE/-FO level 2 solutions. We then compare the results of this Wiener filter with those from the DDK5 filter and Gauer et al. (2023)’s M-SSA filter. The advantages, drawbacks and prospects for improvement of the Wiener filter are finally discussed.

How to cite: Rebischung, P., Gobron, K., Bourlon, G., Gauer, L.-M., and Chanard, K.: Spatio-temporal Wiener filtering of GRACE/-FO solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11578, 2025.

EGU25-11627 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Assessing Groundwater Storage Anomalies using GRACE Measurements: Implications for Sustainable Water Resource Management  

Akanksha Soni, Balaji Narasimhan, and Venkatraman Srinivasan

Agriculture is vital in the Indian economy as it contributes approximately 17 percent to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Wells and tubewells supply more than 61 percent of India's net irrigated land. The rapidly expanding population, increasing the demand for drinking, irrigation purposes, and industrial applications, leads to over-exploitation of groundwater and a rapid decline in groundwater levels. Due to the apparent relevance of groundwater, it is necessary to monitor it continuously. Monitoring the dynamics of groundwater as a valuable natural resource is difficult, whereas insufficient and uneven observation wells are a problem. Therefore, groundwater fluctuation for time and space is considered for planning for the sustainable management of water resources. The present study assesses the terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes across the region of India using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements. By obtaining information on soil moisture and surface water, it is possible to derive groundwater storage changes using TWS anomalies. Groundwater storage anomalies are calculated for the entire Indian region from GRACE TWS data using surface water and soil moisture data simulated by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model. GRACE data is a valuable tool for assessing regional groundwater storage anomalies. The study found that the negative GWS anomalies are associated with drought, and positive anomalies are associated with flooding events. Also the regionalization of GRACE data for modeling GW using in situ measurements, as precipitation & observed GW data. The comparisons of GWS anomalies with monthly groundwater levels and correlation with the rainfall data from the IMD (2003-2015) indicated that reasonable GWS estimates using the GRACE satellite followed the observed pattern closely, showing the potential for the GRACE mission for groundwater monitoring.

Keywords: Groundwater, GRACE, Land surface model, Groundwater anomalies, GLDAS, Soil Moisture.

 

How to cite: Soni, A., Narasimhan, B., and Srinivasan, V.: Assessing Groundwater Storage Anomalies using GRACE Measurements: Implications for Sustainable Water Resource Management , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11627, 2025.

EGU25-11903 | Posters on site | G4.1

Temporal gravity observed by the ESA Swarm satellites during the past decade 

Joao Encarnacao, Daniel Arnold, Ales Bezdek, Christoph Dahle, Junyi Guo, Jose van den IJssel, Adrian Jaeggi, Jaroslav Klokocnik, Sandro Krauss, Torsten Mayer-Guerr, Ulrich Meyer, Josef Sebera, Ck Shum, Pieter Visser, and Yu Zhang

Since the launch of the ESA Swarm satellites in 2014, GPS data has been used to monitor the monthly changes in Earth’s gravity field at a spatial resolution larger than 1,500 km (half-wavelength). We have chosen processing strategies that do not rely on assumptions of temporal and spatial correlations, producing models that are independent of GRACE and GRACE-FO data. We are a team composed of the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern, the Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, the Delft University of Technology, the Institute of Geodesy of the Graz University of Technology, and the School of Earth Sciences of the Ohio State University. We are supported by the European Space Agency and the Swarm Data, Innovation, and Science Cluster. Given the good health of the Swarm satellites, we will continue to produce high-accuracy hl-SST gravity field solutions in the foreseeable future.

We produce individual gravity field models following independent gravity field inversion strategies. The International Combination Service for Time-variable Gravity Fields (COST-G) combines these individual models using weights derived with Variance Component Estimation, with the main objective of keeping the combined model unbiased to any individual solution. The models are published quarterly, pending the successful processing of kinematic orbits in the increasingly challenging environment resulting from the increased solar activity. The models are accessible at ESA’s Swarm Data Access server (https://swarm-diss.eo.esa.int) as well as at the International Centre for Global Earth Models (https://icgem.gfz.de/sp/02_COST-G_/Swarm).

These data monitor geophysical processes in parallel to the ll-SST technique, offering the opportunity to validate the ll-SST models, act as an alternative in the event of gaps in their data records or to bridge the potential gap between the GRACE-FO and GRACE-C/MAGIC mission period.

We show that the signal variability over the oceans of our models is a reliable measure of their accuracy by comparing it with the differences over land between Swarm and the GRACE and GRACE-FO solutions. Despite GRACE/GRACE-FO’s higher spatial resolution, we demonstrate that our Swarm models are able to resolve large-scale hydrological signals. Finally, we show that our effort has mitigated the challenges of estimating gravity field models derived from GPS data during the occurrence of high solar activities, which degraded the GPS signals.

How to cite: Encarnacao, J., Arnold, D., Bezdek, A., Dahle, C., Guo, J., van den IJssel, J., Jaeggi, A., Klokocnik, J., Krauss, S., Mayer-Guerr, T., Meyer, U., Sebera, J., Shum, C., Visser, P., and Zhang, Y.: Temporal gravity observed by the ESA Swarm satellites during the past decade, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11903, 2025.

EGU25-11963 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

ONERA accelerometers for NGGM and for future gravity missions. 

Kristen Maquaire, Antoine Ait-Mehdi, Damien Boulanger, Ratana Chhun, Bruno Christophe, Marine Dalin, Théophile Hervieux, Vincent Lebat, Françoise Liorzou, Nolwenn Portier, Manuel Rodrigues, and Milene Rodriguez-Beignet

The 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space has identified the Targeted Mass Change Observable as one of 5 Designated Mission. In Europe, the development of the ESA Next Generation Gravity Mission is on progress, with the start of the Phase B in 2024.

These missions will continue the observation provided by GRACE and GRACE-FO. In these missions and the future concepts, the accelerometer provides either the gravity signal in a gradiometer configuration (GOCE type mission), or the non-gravitational acceleration to be suppressed to the ranging measurement between two satellites (GRACE-type mission).

In the frame of NGGM activities with ESA, Onera is developing the new accelerometer MicroSTAR, a high accuracy accelerometer with 3 sensitive linear acceleration measurements as well as 3 angular acceleration measurements for the attitude control or reconstruction. PDR of the accelerometer chain has been done at the end of year 2024 and CDR of the accelerometer sensor head will be held in May 2025.

ONERA have procured the accelerometer for all the previous gravity missions (GRACE, GOCE, GRACE-FO). In parallel, ONERA work to improve the scientific return of the instruments for the future missions:

  • a miniaturized version of MicroSTAR, the CubeSTAR accelerometer, is developed with internal funding. CubeSTAR is adapted for constellation or nanosat,
  • An other way is to improve the low-frequency noise of the accelerometer, by hybridization of electrostatic accelerometer with cold atom interferometer.

The presentation will present the status of the MicroSTAR development, and will detail the development of future instruments.

How to cite: Maquaire, K., Ait-Mehdi, A., Boulanger, D., Chhun, R., Christophe, B., Dalin, M., Hervieux, T., Lebat, V., Liorzou, F., Portier, N., Rodrigues, M., and Rodriguez-Beignet, M.: ONERA accelerometers for NGGM and for future gravity missions., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11963, 2025.

EGU25-12949 | Posters on site | G4.1

 Exploring thermospheric disturbance patterns: A weighted accelerometer 1B dataset of GRACE C 

Spiros Pagiatakis and Myrto Tzamali
Satellite measurements are essential for studying Earth’s environment, but they often lack reliable error estimates, making it harder to interpret the data reliably. In this study, we present a new way to calculate realistic covariance matrices directly from raw satellite data, focusing on the accelerometer measurements from the GRACE C satellite from August 2018 to August 2022, covering the solar minimum and the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25. The ACC1A dataset (10 Hz sampling rate) is used as the primary data source because it provides the raw measurements suitable for generating experimental covariance matrices directly from the original observations. Using autocorrelation analysis of the ACC1A measurements, we build a block-diagonal covariance matrix and integrate it into the data processing through a low-pass Gaussian filter. This method improves the accuracy of the proposed weighted ACW1B dataset by reducing noise, such as sudden spikes due to thruster activations while preserving important signals.
Our results show that the accelerometer variances depend on the satellite’s position and time in orbit. We observe clear fluctuations during geomagnetic storms, especially near the equinoxes, and during crossings through Earth’s shadow and terminator. These variances are highest in the radial, and smallest in the cross-track direction, due to the accelerometer’s lower sensitivity in the latter. The new ACW1B dataset also shows a strong link between measurement variances and orbital factors like latitude, local time, and β' angle, making it more suitable for studying satellite-environment interactions.

How to cite: Pagiatakis, S. and Tzamali, M.:  Exploring thermospheric disturbance patterns: A weighted accelerometer 1B dataset of GRACE C, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12949, 2025.

EGU25-15005 | Posters on site | G4.1

GRACE/GRACE-FO RL07 Mascon solutions from CSR 

Himanshu Save, Geethu Jacob, Mark Tamisiea, and Nadege Pie

The GRACE-FO mission, which will conclude its seven-year orbital mission in May 2025, has significantly advanced the scientific legacy of the original GRACE mission, launched in 2002. By delivering continuous, highly accurate gravity field measurements, GRACE-FO has expanded our knowledge of key Earth system processes, supporting essential research in areas such as climate change, hydrology, oceanography, the cryosphere, and solid Earth science.

Both GRACE and GRACE-FO mission data is currently undergoing reprocessing for the upcoming RL07 release. The reprocessing is expected to enhance data quality through improvements in both L1 and L2 processing. This paper presents preliminary findings from the latest GRACE(-FO) mascon solutions developed by The Center for Space Research (CSR) at The University of Texas at Austin, using the reprocessed L1 data along with refinements in L2 processing. The RL07 mascon approach builds on the success of the CSR RL06 solutions and incorporating total variation (TV) regularization to reduce signal leakage between adjacent basins. The study assesses the quality of these new mascon gravity field solutions, comparing them against independent datasets and model predictions to evaluate their accuracy in the geo-spatial domain.

How to cite: Save, H., Jacob, G., Tamisiea, M., and Pie, N.: GRACE/GRACE-FO RL07 Mascon solutions from CSR, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15005, 2025.

EGU25-15017 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Quantification of the flood discharge following the 2023 Kakhovka Dam breach using satellite remote sensing 

Shuang Yi, Hao-si Li, Shin-Chan Han, Sneeuw Nico, Chunyu Yuan, Chunqiao Song, In-Young Yeo, and Christopher M. McCullough

Fourteen months post the Ukrainian-Russian war outbreak, the Kakhovka Dam collapsed, leading to weeks of catastrophic flooding. Yet, scant details exist regarding the reservoir draining process. By using a new technique for processing gravimetric satellite orbital observations, this study succeeded in recovering continuous changes in reservoir mass with a temporal resolution of 2–5 days. By integrating these variations with satellite imagery and altimetry data into a hydrodynamic model, we derived the effective width and length of the breach and the subsequent 30-day evolution of the reservoir discharge. Our model reveals that the initial volumetric flow rate is  (5.7±0.8)×104 m3/s, approximately 28 times the average flow of the Dnipro River. After 30 days, the water level in the reservoir had dropped by 12.6±1.1 m and its water volume was almost completely depleted by  20.4±1.4 km3. In addition, this event provides a rare opportunity to examine the discharge coefficient—a key modelling parameter—of giant reservoirs, which we find to be 0.8–1.0, significantly larger than the ~0.6 value previously measured in the laboratory, indicating that this parameter may be related to the reservoir scale. This study demonstrates a paradigm of utilizing multiple remote sensing techniques to address observational challenges posed by extreme hydrological events.

How to cite: Yi, S., Li, H., Han, S.-C., Nico, S., Yuan, C., Song, C., Yeo, I.-Y., and McCullough, C. M.: Quantification of the flood discharge following the 2023 Kakhovka Dam breach using satellite remote sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15017, 2025.

EGU25-15188 | Orals | G4.1

Recovery of Greenland Ice Sheet mass variation from GRACE using improved Slepian function 

Zehao Gong, Jiangjun Ran, and Zhengwen Yan

We propose an enhanced Slepian method to estimate mass variations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using GRACE monthly spherical harmonic coefficient (SHC) solutions. This approach incorporates the full error covariance matrices of the monthly SHC solutions and employs a novel regularization matrix constructed based on the satellite altimeter data. The monthly Slepian coefficients are estimated through a least-squares inversion process and subsequently converted into monthly GrIS mass variations. The mass balance (MB), derived from surface mass balance (SMB) and ice discharge data, was utilized to determine the statistically optimal parameter range for the improved Slepian method. Using these optimized parameters, we estimated mass anomalies over six individual drainage systems and the entire GrIS. The method demonstrated its highest performance at the monthly scale, achieving reductions in discrepancies between the improved Slepian solutions and MB by 36% to 71%, depending on the drainage system, compared to the original Slepian approach. Additionally, we evaluated discrepancies between mass anomalies derived from three Mascon RL06 solutions (JPL, CSR, GSFC) and MB. The results indicate that the improved Slepian method exhibits comparable performance to Mascon products, further validating its efficacy in GrIS mass variation estimation.

How to cite: Gong, Z., Ran, J., and Yan, Z.: Recovery of Greenland Ice Sheet mass variation from GRACE using improved Slepian function, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15188, 2025.

EGU25-15267 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

Current status of the planned GFZ RL07 GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 time series 

Christoph Dahle, Markus Hauk, Michael Murböck, Natalia Panafidina, Josefine Wilms, Karl Hans Neumayer, and Frank Flechtner

As part of the Science Data System, the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences is one of the official GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 processing centers which routinely provide monthly gravity field models. These models are used by a wide range of geoscientists to infer mass changes at the Earth’s surface to study climate-related phenomena. Currently, GFZ´s operationally processed monthly gravity fields are still based on release 6 (RL06) standards. The distribution of a reprocessed and improved RL07 time series is planned for fall 2025. Most of the improvements have been developed within the Research Unit “New Refined Observations of Climate Change from Spaceborne Gravity Missions” (NEROGRAV) funded by the German Research Foundation DFG.

The main focus of the new release is on optimized stochastic modeling during the Level-2 processing. This includes the extension of the stochastic instrument error models, the optimization of the combination of the different observations, and the inclusion of tidal and temporally changing non-tidal background model error variance-covariance matrices in the adjustment process.

We present an overview of the expected performance of our upcoming RL07 gravity field time series compared to the current RL06 time series. Improvements stemming from the applied advanced processing strategy become visible in terms of a reduced noise level, as well as more realistic formal errors.

How to cite: Dahle, C., Hauk, M., Murböck, M., Panafidina, N., Wilms, J., Neumayer, K. H., and Flechtner, F.: Current status of the planned GFZ RL07 GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 time series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15267, 2025.

EGU25-15499 | Posters on site | G4.1

COST-G: Status and new developments 

Ulrich Meyer, Adrian Jäggi, Martin Lasser, Christoph Dahle, Frank Flechtner, Eva Boergens, Christoph Foerste, Felix Öhlinger, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, Jean-Michel Lemoine, Stephane Bourgogne, Thorben Döhne, Hao Zhou, Jianjun Ran, Qiujie Chen, Changqing Wan, and Wei Feng

The Combination Service for Time-variable Gravity fields (COST-G) of the IAG looks back at an eventful and very successful year. The operational combination of the monthly GRACE-FO gravity fields now comprises eight analysis centers, providing high-quality solutions with short latency on a regular basis. When the new release 06.3 of the GRACE-FO Science Data System (SDS) time-series became available in September 2024, COST-G generated test combinations and could confirm the quality gain compared to the former release 06.2. Meanwhile, release 06.3 is routinely incorporated in the operational combination.

The number of analysis centers providing complete time-series of monthly gravity fields of the GRACE mission to COST-G has more than doubled compared to the original COST-G GRACE RL01, published in 2019. The current COST-G GRACE RL02 is a
weighted combination of 11 time-series, where the weighting scheme was adapted to be consistent with the operational GRACE-FO combination. The quality gain of the new combination is most pronounced during the early and late GRACE mission period, when data quality issues and environmental conditions were challenging.

How to cite: Meyer, U., Jäggi, A., Lasser, M., Dahle, C., Flechtner, F., Boergens, E., Foerste, C., Öhlinger, F., Mayer-Gürr, T., Lemoine, J.-M., Bourgogne, S., Döhne, T., Zhou, H., Ran, J., Chen, Q., Wan, C., and Feng, W.: COST-G: Status and new developments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15499, 2025.

EGU25-15578 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Revisiting the data-driven deviation approach for leakage correction in GRACE data processing 

Bharath Narayana Reddy Komali and Balaji Devaraju

The mass change maps derived from GRACE spherical harmonic data come with inherent striping noise, which needs to be filtered during post-processing. Filtering of data leads to signal attenuation and leakage. Several leakage correction methods are available to restore the filtered signal, majorly based on hydrological models or data-driven approaches. In the data-driven correction approach, the primary focus is to account for attenuation and leakage without the aid of external hydrological models. The data-driven methods either use a scaling approach in which the filtered values are scaled after applying a leakage correction, or they use a deviation approach in which the filtered values are corrected by a deviation term and a leakage term. This study concerns the derivation of the deviation term. In deriving the deviation term, the choice of the extent of the catchment average and the deviation field has an impact on the final correction terms. If the deviation term is taken as a global field, then a scaling term appears in addition to the deviation term. Our preliminary investigation shows that there are significant differences between deviation-only and deviation-cum-scaling approaches. We perform our investigation over the GRDC basins as well as the HydroSHEDS level 5 dataset.

How to cite: Komali, B. N. R. and Devaraju, B.: Revisiting the data-driven deviation approach for leakage correction in GRACE data processing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15578, 2025.

EGU25-15621 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

GRACE/GRACE-FO Monthly Mascon Gravity Field Solutions: Processing Chain and Preliminary Results 

Huiyi Wu, Marius Schlaak, and Roland Pail

Since 2002, GRACE and GRACE-FO have provided pioneering observations of temporal variations in Earth’s gravity field. Mass flux estimation for GRACE/GRACE-FO typically parameterizes as a spherical harmonic series. Alternatively, mass concentration (mascon) solutions divide the Earth's surface into discrete blocks, allowing for the direct estimation of mass anomalies. The mascon approach, which employs locally defined basis functions rather than global ones, facilitates the incorporation of a-priori information to reduce aliasing effects and other modeling errors.

This study presents preliminary results of a newly developed mascon processing chain to retrieve mascon solutions for GRACE/GRACE-FO data. The solutions are derived from least squares inversions with Tikhonov regularization using the open-source software GROOPS. The processing scheme employs the point-mass mascon approach, and explicitly links inter-satellite range rate measurements to an analytical mascon formulation. The resulting mascon solutions are based on globally distributed, equal area blocks approximating 3° resolution at the equator. By incorporating tailored geographic information into the regularization process, the scheme mitigates the noise in the solutions and permits the geophysical signals to be detected. This approach eliminates the need for post-processing filters to remove north-south stripes and achieves a balance between signal recovery magnitude and error reduction.

This contribution displays preliminary results and discusses the processing chain for a point-mass mascon approach while comparing the preliminary mascon solutions with postprocessed spherical harmonic solutions in both spatial and spectral domains.

How to cite: Wu, H., Schlaak, M., and Pail, R.: GRACE/GRACE-FO Monthly Mascon Gravity Field Solutions: Processing Chain and Preliminary Results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15621, 2025.

EGU25-15666 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

Integrating AOD uncertainties into the GRACE Follow-On processing at the AIUB 

Martin Lasser, Ulrich Meyer, Daniel Arnold, and Adrian Jäggi

The uncertainty characterisation in temporal gravity field recovery plays a crucial role for providing consistent and reliable information on mass change. We study gravity field determination from GRACE Follow-On satellite-to-satellite tracking data using the inter-satellite link of the K-Band Ranging System
and kinematic positions of the satellites as observations and pseudo-observations, respectively. We compute our solutions in a Least-Squares Adjustment with the Celestial Mechanics Approach, where - next to orbit, accelerometer and gravity field parameters - a set of nuisance parameters, i.e., constrained piece-wise constant accelerations, are estimated to account for any kind of unknown deficiencies. In addition, an empirical observation noise model is derived from post-fit residuals and applied as observation data weighting.
In this contribution, we extend the noise modelling by introducing another set of nuisance parameters, which are constrained according to uncertainty information about the atmospheric and oceanic de-aliasing (AOD), where we make use of the AOe07 variance-covariance information from Shihora et al. (2023)*.
We validate the new solutions by comparing them with models from the operational GRACE Follow-On processing at the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), by examining the stochastic behaviour of respective post-fit residuals and by inspecting areas where a low noise is expected. Last but not least, we investigate the influence of AOD uncertainties in a combination of monthly gravity fields based on other approaches as it is done by the Combination Service for Time-variable Gravity fields (COST-G) and make use of noise and signal assessment applying the quality control tools routinely used in the frame of COST-G.

 

 

*Shihora, L., Balidakis, K., Dill, R. and Dobslaw, H.: AOe07 Variance-Covariance Matrix. V. 2.0. GFZ Data Services.
doi:10.5880/nerograv.2023.00

How to cite: Lasser, M., Meyer, U., Arnold, D., and Jäggi, A.: Integrating AOD uncertainties into the GRACE Follow-On processing at the AIUB, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15666, 2025.

This study aims to provide valuable scientific insights into various estimation techniques for Geocenter Motion (GCM) from the perspectives of signal analysis and seasonal variation driving factors, thereby enhancing GRACE users' understanding and application of GCM. Initially, it utilizes the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) technique with the network shift approach to estimate over 30 years of weekly GCM time series from 1994 to 2024. Subsequently, we employ two approaches to estimate three types of monthly GCM time series spanning more than 20 years from 2002 to 2023: combining GRACE data with an Ocean Bottom Pressure model (GRACE-OBP approach), the Fingerprint Approach (FPA), and the Fingerprint Approach with satellite altimetry data (FPA-SA, up to 2022). The former is referred to as SLR-based GCM estimates, while the latter, based on GRACE Earth gravity field models, is termed GRACE-based GCM estimates. Furthermore, this study pioneers the use of Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) for GCM analysis to unveil GRACE-based estimation techniques, especially focusing on the latest GRACE-based GCM estimates from the GRACE-OBP and FPA/FPA-SA approaches. MSSA is used to explore how variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and atmosphere-ocean (AO) drive GCM and contribute to seasonal variations through the analysis of correlations and lags between GCM and seasonal driving factors. The results indicate that the 160-day periodic signal detected in GRACE-based GCM estimates, linked to half the GRACE draconitic period, originates from systematic errors in higher-degree spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth gravity field models, but is absent in SLR-based GCM estimates. Additionally, the study provides the first geophysical explanation linking the 120-day signal in GCM to global precipitation changes.

How to cite: Yu, H., Zhang, Y., and Sun, Y.: Study of GRACE-based Estimation Techniques and Seasonal Drivers of Geocenter Motion Using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16044, 2025.

EGU25-16267 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.1

Application of Sensitivity Kernels for Accurate Surface Mass Change Estimation in the Svalbard Region Using GRACE Data 

Barbora Korekáčová, Bert Wouters, and Thorben Döhne

The estimation of ice mass variations using GRACE data is highly sensitive to evaluation parameters and processing options. Factors that contribute significantly to the variability  of the results include the selection of spherical harmonic solutions, corrections for the geocentre motion, adjustments for inaccuracies in low-degree coefficients, application of auxiliary models to mitigate geophysical signal contamination, and the processing method. Döhne et al. (2023) propose sensitivity kernels as a robust representation of the processing method of surface mass changes, regardless of the general processing approach and the input data set. Sensitivity kernels allow the direct calculation of integrated surface mass changes within a given region and can directly be tailored to effectively account for inherent solution errors and leakage effects. In addition, they provide a consistent and reliable foundation for the evaluation. In this work, we apply this methodology to analyse surface mass changes in the Svalbard region. We test various input parameters, including spherical harmonic solutions or geocentre motion datasets, to determine whether the method produces consistent results regardless of the inputs. We also examine whether using a time-variable GRACE error covariance matrix to account for inherent solution errors yields different results compared to using its approximate representation. Our results highlight the applicability of tailored sensitivity kernels in regional studies and underline their potential to improve the consistency of GRACE-based assessments across different glaciated regions.

How to cite: Korekáčová, B., Wouters, B., and Döhne, T.: Application of Sensitivity Kernels for Accurate Surface Mass Change Estimation in the Svalbard Region Using GRACE Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16267, 2025.

EGU25-16562 | Orals | G4.1

Stochastic modeling of non-tidal atmospheric and oceanic dealiasing models for GFZ GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 processing 

Michael Murböck, Christoph Dahle, Natalia Panafidina, Markus Hauk, Josefine Wilms, Karl Hans Neumayer, and Frank Flechtner

The central hypothesis of the Research Unit (RU) New Refined Observations of Climate Change from Spaceborne Gravity Missions (NEROGRAV), funded for the second three-year phase by the German Research Foundation DFG, reads: only by concurrently improving and better understanding of sensor data, background models, and processing strategies of satellite gravimetry, the resolution, accuracy, and long-term consistency of mass transport series from satellite gravimetry can be significantly increased; and only in that case, the potential of future technological sensor developments can be fully exploited.

In continuation of the first RU phase, the individual project Improved Stochastic Modeling in GRACE/GRACE-FO Real Data Processing (ISTORE-2) aims to complete the optimized stochastic modeling for GRACE and GRACE-FO gravity field determination. This includes stochastic modeling of the non-tidal atmospheric and oceanic dealiasing (AOD) models which were recently implemented into the GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 processing at the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences. In this context, we co-estimate AOD model coefficients using AOD error variance-covariance matrices in terms of constraint matrices.

This presentation provides an overview of the main processing steps together with AOD error analyses. In particular, we investigate the impact of taking into account not only static but also temporal correlations of the AOD models with different maximum temporal correlation lengths. Results are presented in terms of gravity field solutions in the spectral and spatial domain.

How to cite: Murböck, M., Dahle, C., Panafidina, N., Hauk, M., Wilms, J., Neumayer, K. H., and Flechtner, F.: Stochastic modeling of non-tidal atmospheric and oceanic dealiasing models for GFZ GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 processing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16562, 2025.

EGU25-17708 | Posters on site | G4.1

GFZ daily GRACE/GRACE-FO Kalman filter solutions 

Natalia Panafidina, Michael Murböck, Christoph Dahle, Markus Hauk, Josefine Wilms, Karl-Hans Neumayer, and Frank Flechtner

The satellite missions GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) and GRACE-Follow-on (GRACE-FO) measure gravity field variations with homogeneous global coverage. Standard GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions are usually provided by different analysis centers as monthly mean gravity fields. An increase in the temporal resolution reduces the accuracy of the solutions so that it is not possible to compute daily solutions without taking into account additional information about the temporal correlations between the subsequent solutions. The assessment of this correlation is based on the knowledge of the stochastic properties of the underlying geophysical processes governing the variations of the gravity field on sub-monthly time scales. This method is known as Kalman filter approach.

In the frame of the Research Unit (RU) New Refined Observations of Climate Change from Spaceborne Gravity Missions (NEROGRAV), we investigate the possibility of obtaining Kalman daily gravity field solutions using refined stochastic information about two main geophysical processes causing high-frequency variations in the gravity field: non-tidal atmospheric and oceanic variations and hydrology. We present the first results for two test years, 2007 and 2020. To validate the obtained daily solutions, comparisons between our daily gravity fields and different flood events which took place during these test years were performed.

How to cite: Panafidina, N., Murböck, M., Dahle, C., Hauk, M., Wilms, J., Neumayer, K.-H., and Flechtner, F.: GFZ daily GRACE/GRACE-FO Kalman filter solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17708, 2025.

EGU25-18373 | ECS | Orals | G4.1

Are ocean bottom pressure variations from CMIP6 HighResMIP useful for future gravity mission simulations? 

Le Liu, Michael Schindelegger, Lara Börger, and JunYang Gou

Ocean bottom pressure (pb) variations from high-resolution climate model simulations under
the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) HighResMIP protocol are a
potentially useful input for future gravity mission simulation studies, but the overall signal content
and accuracy of these pb estimates has hitherto not been assessed. Here we compute monthly
pb fields from five CMIP6 HighResMIP models at1/4° grid spacing over both historical and future
time spans and compare these data, in terms of temporal variance, against observation-based
pb estimates from a 1/4° downscaled GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)
product and 23 bottom pressure recorders, mostly in the Pacific. The model results are
qualitatively and quantitatively similar to the GRACE-based pb estimates, featuring—aside
from eddy imprints—elevated amplitudes on continental shelves and in major abyssal plains of
the Southern Ocean. Modeled pb variance in these regions is ~10–80% higher and thus
overestimated relative to GRACE, whereas underestimation (~30%) prevails in more quiescent
deep-ocean regions. Comparisons with the bottom pressure recorders tend to confirm this
picture. We also form variance ratios of detrended pb signals over 2030–2049 under a high-
emission scenario relative to a baseline period of 1980–1999 for three selected models and find
evidence for a statistically significant strengthening of future pb variance by 30–50% across
the Arctic and in eddy-rich regions of the South Atlantic. Together, our results suggest that pb
estimates from CMIP6 HighResMIP models can inform satellite gravimetry simulations and that
climate-driven changes in pb variance should be considered in such efforts.

How to cite: Liu, L., Schindelegger, M., Börger, L., and Gou, J.: Are ocean bottom pressure variations from CMIP6 HighResMIP useful for future gravity mission simulations?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18373, 2025.

EGU25-1677 | ECS | Orals | G4.2

Calibration of superconducting gravimeters by combination with absolute quantum gravimeters 

Ezequiel D. Antokoletz, André Gebauer, Julian Glässel, and Hartmut Wziontek

Classically, the scale factor of superconducting gravimeters (SGs) can be determined by two approaches. A first estimate can be obtained by comparison of its observations with a theoretical Earth tide and precise ocean tide loading models, after correcting for the effects of polar motion and atmosphere on gravity. However, an independent estimation from existing tide models is preferred and can be achieved through the combination with parallel absolute gravity observations, usually performed with classical free-fall gravimeters. In this case, absolute gravity observations are carried out only over a few days to limit the mechanical wear of these instruments, and preferably during periods of spring tides to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio.

In this study, we investigate the use of the quantum gravimeters AQG by Exail for the calibration of superconducting gravimeters at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany. To do so, continuous absolute gravity measurements were carried out for different periods of time and up to three months and combined with the SG observations. Scale factors were estimated through a least-squares adjustment, considering different time windows. Although the AQGs have a much larger scatter of individual experiments than FG5 absolute gravimeters, their benefit is considerably longer and continuous observation epochs, that are proved to be important also by synthetic data. A good agreement of the calibration factors with previous estimations was found, demonstrating the potential of quantum gravimeters to calibrate SGs.

How to cite: Antokoletz, E. D., Gebauer, A., Glässel, J., and Wziontek, H.: Calibration of superconducting gravimeters by combination with absolute quantum gravimeters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1677, 2025.

EGU25-4113 | Posters on site | G4.2

First results from the comparison of absolute gravimeters WETCAG-2024 at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany 

Hartmut Wziontek, Vojtech Pálinkáš, Ezequiel D. Antokoletz, Henri Baumann, Jean-Daniel Bernard, Mirjam Bilker-Koivula, Erik Brachmann, Adam Ciesielski, Danilo Contrafatto, Przemysław Dykowski, Andreas Engfeldt, Alessio Facello, André Gebauer, Fillipo Greco, Domenico Iacovone, Juraj Janák, Johannes Konrad, Jakub Kostelecký, Alexander Lothhammer, Sébastien Merlet, Alfio Messina, Jyri Näränen, Juraj Papčo, Andrea Prato, Marvin Reich, René Reudink, and Christian Rothleitner

The validation of compatibility and long-term stability of absolute gravimeters is a key component for the realization of the International Terrestrial Gravity Reference Frame (ITGRF) of IAG and is relevant for metrology, in particular for the realization of the kilogram. Because a natural reference for the absolute value of gravity acceleration is not accessible, international comparisons of absolute gravimeters are well established. The gravity reference is realized based on a set of accurate absolute measurements and the functional model for their processing. 
After the CCM.G-K2.2023 key comparison supplemented by additional comparison ICAG-2023 held in September 2023 at Table Mountain Geophysical Observatory (TMGO) Boulder, Colorado, USA, there was a need to distribute the gravity reference further to institutions in Europe. Therefore, the EURAMET key comparison of absolute gravimeters EURAMET.M.G-K2.2023 and additional comparison WETCAG-2024 was organized at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany, in May and June 2024, where 15 institutions participated with 17 absolute gravimeters. The link to CCM.G-K2.2023 is provided by three gravimeters that took part in both comparisons. Additionally, deviations from the verticality and Eötvös/Coriolis accelerations during the free fall were determined for most of the gravimeters. 
We present first results for the equivalence of the participating gravimeters as well as for the verticality and Eötvös effects. Further, we evaluate and discuss the stability of the reference values over decades, based on a reference function deduced from the registration of the superconducting gravimeter GWR SG030, repeated absolute gravity observations since 2010 and several regional comparisons performed at this station, in particular with the comparison EURAMET.M.G-K3 held at Wettzell in 2018. 
Quantum gravimeters are represented in WETCAG-2024 with two instruments. This allows to compare the new technology with the reference established at the Wettzell station over 15 years, specifically in the context of stability of gravimeters and the upcoming realization of the ITGRF.  

 

How to cite: Wziontek, H., Pálinkáš, V., Antokoletz, E. D., Baumann, H., Bernard, J.-D., Bilker-Koivula, M., Brachmann, E., Ciesielski, A., Contrafatto, D., Dykowski, P., Engfeldt, A., Facello, A., Gebauer, A., Greco, F., Iacovone, D., Janák, J., Konrad, J., Kostelecký, J., Lothhammer, A., Merlet, S., Messina, A., Näränen, J., Papčo, J., Prato, A., Reich, M., Reudink, R., and Rothleitner, C.: First results from the comparison of absolute gravimeters WETCAG-2024 at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4113, 2025.

EGU25-4906 | ECS | Orals | G4.2

Simulating Gravitational Redshift Test Using the European Laser Timing (ELT) Experiment on the ACES Mission 

Abdelrahim Ruby, Wenbin Shen, Ahmed Shaker, Pengfei Zhang, and Ziyu Shen

Gravitational redshift (GRS), a fundamental prediction of general relativity (GR), serves as a critical test of the Einstein Equivalence Principle (EEP) by comparing time flow rates between differing gravitational potentials. Over the decades, GRS experiments in astronomical observations, terrestrial measurements, and space-based investigations have achieved precision levels as fine as 10-5. However, most GRS experiments depend on microwave links for time and frequency transfer, with only a few exploring optical time and frequency transfer methods. Optical time transfer links provide a transformative alternative, offering superior resistance to atmospheric perturbations and higher modulation bandwidths, which enable sub-picosecond synchronization and exceptional time transfer precision. In 1975, Professor Carroll Alley (1927–2016) and his team at the University of Maryland (UMD), USA, demonstrated the feasibility of the optical time transfer method for GRS testing, achieving 10-2 accuracy using cesium clocks with 2×10-14 stability per day and laser pulses of 0.5 mJ energy, 0.1 ns duration, and 10 pulses per second. Modern advancements in optical timing experiments, such as the Chinese Laser Timing (CLT) on the China Space Station (CSS) mission, launched in October 2022, and the European Laser Timing (ELT), part of the upcoming Atomic Clock Ensemble in Space (ACES) mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS), promise unprecedented precision in future GRS experiments.

This study investigates GRS testing by simulating ELT data. The ACES mission features atomic clocks with instabilities of about 2×10-16, including a hydrogen maser achieving 1.5×10-15 after 10,000 seconds and a cesium clock with stability of 1.1×10-13​√τ, where τ is the integration time in seconds. Additionally, the ELT payload is equipped with a novel single photon detector with a timing stability of < 3 ps @ 300 s and an event timer with precision of < 1 ps. Our simulation results indicate that using the two-way laser time transfer (TWLTT) link via the ELT experiment achieves precision levels 3–4 orders of magnitude higher than those obtained in the Alley experiment 50 years ago, thanks to the advanced atomic clocks aboard the ACES mission. This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (NSFC) (Grant Nos. 42030105, 42388102, and 42274011) and the Space Station Project (2020-228).

How to cite: Ruby, A., Shen, W., Shaker, A., Zhang, P., and Shen, Z.: Simulating Gravitational Redshift Test Using the European Laser Timing (ELT) Experiment on the ACES Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4906, 2025.

EGU25-9728 | Orals | G4.2

Investigating Satellite Control Algorithms for Formation Flying in Gravity Field Recovery 

Andreas Leipner, Stefanie Bremer, and Meike List

Satellite formation flying has emerged as a promising approach for high-precision gravity field recovery, complementing and extending the capabilities of double-satellite missions such as GRACE and GRACE-FO. The use of multiple satellites in formations allows for improved spatial and temporal resolution in gravity field recovery and reducing alising effects.

Despite its advantages, maintaining precise satellite formations over long mission durations poses significant challenges. Orbital perturbations, such as atmospheric drag, differential gravitational forces, and solar radiation pressure, can degrade the formation geometry, compromising the accuracy of gravity field measurements.

This study investigates the feasibility and effectiveness of advanced control algorithms for maintaining satellite formations optimized for gravity field recovery.
 
We employ numerical simulations to model a satellite formation in low-Earth orbit. The satellites are configured in optimized formations, such as triangels rotating around a center point, to maximize sensitivity to gravitational variations. Advanced control algorithms are implemented to counteract perturbations and maintain the formation. The performance of these algorithms is evaluated in terms of formation accuracy and robustness to external disturbances.

The presented results represent our current progress in developing control algorithms for satellite formation flying. The study also highlights the sensitivity of formations to perturbations and proposes control schemes.

How to cite: Leipner, A., Bremer, S., and List, M.: Investigating Satellite Control Algorithms for Formation Flying in Gravity Field Recovery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9728, 2025.

EGU25-10971 | Posters on site | G4.2

On the importance of accounting for instrumental effects when applying gravimetry to volcano monitoring 

Filippo Greco, Daniele Carbone, Danilo Contrafatto, Alfio Alex Messina, and Luca Timoteo Mirabella

Repeated and continuous gravity measurements have long been performed to monitor active volcanoes and study the processes that may lead to unrest and eruptions. Possible instrumental effects must be accurately accounted for, since they can be behind apparent gravity changes even stronger than the real (i.e., volcano-related) ones.

At tall volcanoes, where, due to the rough topography, the difference between the gravity field values at external and summit stations can be hundreds of mGal, strong time changes in gravity may arise from changes in the calibration factor of the device used to perform campaign measurements. For example, a difference in the value of the gravity field between reference station and summit active area of 300 mGal implies an apparent time change of 60 µGal, if a shift of 100 ppm occurs in the calibration factor of the gravimeter. To avoid this, the calibration factor of the instrument used to perform campaign measurements should be regularly checked.

The instrumental drift of relative gravimeters can make it difficult to detect long-term (months to years) gravity changes through continuous measurements. This shortcoming may also affect data from superconducting gravimeters (much more stable than spring gravimeters), especially if relatively small gravity changes are to be detected over time scales of several months, or longer. To address this issue, absolute gravity measurements must be performed at the same site where the continuously recording gravimeter is installed. Here we present some examples from Mt. Etna volcano, where instrumental effects, potentially leading to apparent time changes of some tens of µGal, were detected through suitable measurement strategies.

How to cite: Greco, F., Carbone, D., Contrafatto, D., Messina, A. A., and Mirabella, L. T.: On the importance of accounting for instrumental effects when applying gravimetry to volcano monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10971, 2025.

EGU25-11309 | Posters on site | G4.2

Absolute Quantum Gravimeter for Field Applications 

Jeremie Richard, Laura Antoni-Micollier, Romain Gautier, Paul Bertier, Pierre Vermeulen, Camille Janvier, Cédric Majek, Bruno Desruelle, and Vincent Menoret

Absolute gravity measurements at the level of 1 µGal using cold atom quantum technology have been demonstrated in the laboratory in 1992 and have ever since received an increasing interest from the geophysics community [1]. In 2015, Exail launched on the marketplace the Absolute Quantum Gravimeter (AQG) [2]. Cutting-edge technology developments brought the necessary easy-of-use, autonomy, and robustness for field deployment.

In 10 years of production, more than 20 units have since been produced for various geophysical applications, including hydrology and volcanology. We present here an overview on the results obtained over this large panel of instruments. Comparison of the sensitivity of the instruments at our premises prior to shipping, shows reproducible performance in the range of 600-800 nm/s²/sqrt(Tau), reaching a stability better than 10 nm/s² after approximately one hour of integration.

Ongoing work focuses on two main axes: the completion and improvement of a budget of systematic effects, that is necessary to evaluate the trueness of the instruments, several instruments already delivered with such a budget; and the improvement of remote operability with the development of a self-leveling tripod.

[1] M. Kasevich, S. Chu. Measurement of the gravitational acceleration of an atom with a light-pulse atom interferometer. Applied Physics B, 1992, vol. 54, p. 321-332.
[2] V. Ménoret et al, Gravity measurements below 10-9 g with a transportable absolute quantum gravimeter. Scientific Reports, 2018, 8, pp.12300.

How to cite: Richard, J., Antoni-Micollier, L., Gautier, R., Bertier, P., Vermeulen, P., Janvier, C., Majek, C., Desruelle, B., and Menoret, V.: Absolute Quantum Gravimeter for Field Applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11309, 2025.

EGU25-11356 | Orals | G4.2

Simulating spaceborne high-precision optical clocks and their potential for measuring relativistic gravity 

Noa Wassermann, Dennis Philipp, and Meike List

Highly precise optical clocks are advancing rapidly and hold the promise of enabling gravity measurements with unprecedented accuracy, particularly through the deployment of spaceborne clocks on satellites. Satellite mission simulations need to improve their accuracy alongside, in order to be able to thoroughly plan such satellite missions and interpret measurements correctly. Therefore, we develop a clock model for our simulation tool that incorporates even small relativistic effects as well as calculations of the clock’s uncertainty due to thermal perturbations. We use these models and our satellite simulator VENQS to study the potentials of future generations of optical clocks, their precision and ability to detect very small relativistic effects like the gravitomagnetic clock effect. We also study their potential use for future relativistic geodesy satellite missions. This talk will present the current state of our research.

How to cite: Wassermann, N., Philipp, D., and List, M.: Simulating spaceborne high-precision optical clocks and their potential for measuring relativistic gravity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11356, 2025.

EGU25-11695 | Orals | G4.2

Gravity and gravity gradient simultaneous survey in an urban environment 

Camille Janvier, Greta Firenze, Nuno Pires, Carlos Didelet, Antonio Marques, Yasser Omar, Cedric Majek, and Bruno Desruelle

In development since 2019, Exail’s Differential Quantum Gravimeter (DQG) is a double quantum gravimeter capable of measuring both gravity and vertical gravity gradient (VGG) at the same time [1]. In the laboratory it has shown sensitivities down do 250nm/s²/sqrt(tau) and 30E/sqrt(tau) as well as sub-10nm/s² and sub-1E stabilities. 

Here we show the performance of this instrument in the field by performing a dual gravity survey in the streets of Lisbon in order to detect a sewer system from the XVIIIth century. The survey was performed in collaboration with Lisbon city archeology laboratory (CAL). In total 26 stations in three days have been taken. The sewer system can be clearly observed on the gravity gradient signal, less so on the gravity signal, which is less resilient to the especially high environmental noise. The survey was performed in early October 2024 in mild temperature conditions but in the presence of wind and rain which necessitated the use of a tent.

Despite this DQG prototype not being originally designed for outdoor use, no issues were encountered during the measurements which bode well for future outdoor versions of this instrument, in particular for the automatized version in development within the FIQUgS project and which should improve significantly the rate of measurement.

We acknowledge fruitful discussions with Thomas Jacob from BRGM and Daniele Sampietro as well as Martina Capponi from GReD. Exail acknowledge funding from the Horizon-EUROPE project FIQUgS, grant number 101080144. YO acknowledge support from FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal), namely through project UIDB/04540/2020.[1] C. Janvier, V. Ménoret, B. Desruelle, S. Merlet, A. Landragin, and F. Pereira dos Santos, Compact differential gravimeter at the quantum projection-noise limit, Phys. Rev. A 105, 022801 (2022).

How to cite: Janvier, C., Firenze, G., Pires, N., Didelet, C., Marques, A., Omar, Y., Majek, C., and Desruelle, B.: Gravity and gravity gradient simultaneous survey in an urban environment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11695, 2025.

EGU25-13302 | ECS | Orals | G4.2

Regularization Approach in Tidal Analysis for Absolute Gravimetry 

Adam Ciesielski and Przemysław Dykowski

Superconducting and quantum gravimeters, through continuous precise relative and accurate absolute gravity measurements, provide deep insight into monitoring the Earth's gravity field, rheology, and temporal changes. The major obstacle in the analysis of gravimetric data is refining the correct tidal model to be subtracted from the measurements. The main limitation in tidal analysis is the resolution - coarse tidal groups. The recent, innovative Earth Tides Analysis software, RATA (Regularized Approach to Tidal Analysis), abandons this 100-year-old concept of groups, and by restricting overfitting possibilities, it provides the finest solution. 

For practical reasons, the concept of groups is still present in RATA as data-driven "reference groups." This remains a useful feature for applications such as gravimetry, since the only available software uses PRETERNA or TSOFT formats. They not only require groups but also allow a limited number of them, not easily distinguishing between various tidal degrees. We implemented functions that transform the outcome model from RATA into PRETERNA and TSOFT formats. Afterwards, we investigated the differences in the resulting synthetic time series using various approaches (e.g., theoretical tides with ocean corrections, local RATA and ETERNA models) for various stations. 

Moreover, since the aim and feature of RATA is to achieve super-resolution that even highly violates the Rayleigh criterion in tidal analysis, we investigated how the length of the analysed time series affects the outcome RATA model. For analyses of various stations from the IGETS database, we also studied the change of residual time series. Additionally, we compared the gravity time series between the superconducting gravimeter (SG) with the absolute quantum gravimeter (AQG) operating simultaneously at Borowa Góra Observatory for longer than three months (part of Innoglobo QuGrav NCBR project). Finally, we investigated how much tidal information we could extract from the AQG and compared it with RATA tidal models resulting from the SG. 

How to cite: Ciesielski, A. and Dykowski, P.: Regularization Approach in Tidal Analysis for Absolute Gravimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13302, 2025.

EGU25-14188 | ECS | Orals | G4.2

Determination of geopotential at ground station using China Space Station microwave links 

Pengfei Zhang, Chenxiang Wang, Lihong Li, Lei Wang, Wei Xu, Ziyu Shen, Rui Xu, An Ning, Abdelrahim Ruby, and Wenbin Shen

The China Space Station (CSS) is currently in orbit and carries the high-precision optical atomic clock with stability of 2.0×10-15/√τ in its experiment module. We have developed a model to determine the geopotential at the ground based on the gravity frequency shift equation and have created both one-way and dual-frequency transfer models up to c-4. These models consider influence from the troposphere, ionosphere, and solid Earth tides. The proposed model is suitable for measurements at the magnitude of 10-19. Based on the CSS mission, we conducted the simulation experiments. The results indicate that, based on the CSS microwave links, we can obtain the geopotential difference between two sites on the ground with centimeter-level accuracy.

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (NSFC) (Grant Nos. 42030105, 42388102, and 42274011) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Certificate Number: 2024M752480).

How to cite: Zhang, P., Wang, C., Li, L., Wang, L., Xu, W., Shen, Z., Xu, R., Ning, A., Ruby, A., and Shen, W.: Determination of geopotential at ground station using China Space Station microwave links, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14188, 2025.

EGU25-15763 | Posters on site | G4.2

Determination of physical heights via time transfer 

Klarissa Emma Lachmann, Jürgen Müller, Anja Schlicht, and Peter Vollmair

We present a project from the research unit (RU) "TIME" (Clock Metrology: A Novel Approach to TIME in Geodesy), which seeks to determine gravity potential or height differences between distant locations by comparing optical clocks. A strontium optical lattice clock at the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) in Braunschweig will be connected to the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam via a delay-compensated optical fiber link. Optical time transfer will then be applied between the geodetic observatories in Potsdam and Wettzell (hosting a second optical clock) through the Atomic Clock Ensemble in Space (ACES) using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) telescopes.

Additionally, a third optical clock located in Grasse, France, will be included for comparison. This clock, assumed to have similar characteristics to the one in Braunschweig, will connect to PTB via microwave terminals and to Wettzell using both laser and microwave links, forming a triangular measurement configuration.

The innovative aspect of this approach lies in utilizing time transfer, rather than frequency transfer, and employing free-space links over an extended period to measure physical height differences. Key challenges include managing clock and link variations, atmospheric disturbances, visibility limitations, and data gaps. The clock and link errors are modeled specifically for this constellation, involving the ACES system.

This approach demonstrates the accurate determination of physical height differences via time transfer, particularly for Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) core stations such as the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell (GOW).

We discuss the underlying principles, unique properties, and specific challenges of this measurement scenario. Additionally, we provide preliminary estimates of the expected accuracies for the various components and the resulting height differences, based on simulations with varying error budgets for comparison.

We acknowledge the support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) – Project-ID 490990195 – FOR 5456.

How to cite: Lachmann, K. E., Müller, J., Schlicht, A., and Vollmair, P.: Determination of physical heights via time transfer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15763, 2025.

The relativistic gravity field has many more degrees of freedom than the Newtonian one. A single scalar potential, sourced by the mass density of matter only, is replaced by a metric - a symmetric and non-degenrate tensor field of rank two. It has ten components and is related, via Einstein's equation, to the energy momentum distribution on the spacetime. 

Some gravitational degrees of freedom in General Relativity can, again, be cast into at least two potentials that generalize the Newtonian geopotential. These concepts are utterly important to describe chronometric measurements, i.e., the comparison of clocks. They influence the redshift of a pair of standard clocks and the transformation between various time scales. Moreover, relativistic mass and spin multipole moments, in various definitions, are based upon those notions. Therefore, they are chosen to be fundamental quantities in chronometry.

In a framework of fully relativistic geodesy, we analyze the impact of, in particular, chronometric measurements on the determination of relativistic potentials and multipoles. The measurement prescription is given precisely and involved mathematical subtleties are made explicit. Genuine relativistic observables are defined and we relate the gravity degrees of freedom to observables to comment on, e.g., the impact on the relativistic definition of height, height system unifications, and deduced concepts such as the generalization of normal gravity and the reference ellipsoid. 

How to cite: Philipp, D.: Chronometric assessment of relativistic degrees of freedom of the gravity field, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16496, 2025.

EGU25-16499 | Posters on site | G4.2

Results and Findings from the Worldwide First Joint Measurements with 5 Absolute Quantum Gravimeters 

Sébastien Merlet, Marvin Reich, Przemyslaw Dykowski, Pierre Vermeulen, Maxime Arnal, Andre Gebauer, Mohamed Sobh, Nawel Addi, Nicolas Le Moigne, Heiko Thoss, Marcin Sekowski, Jan Bergmann, and Ludger Timmen

Quantum gravimeters have been in use as laboratory instruments by various research groups for some time and have been available as user-friendly commercial devices since 2014. In contrast to traditional absolute gravimeters such as the FG5, which employ corner cubes as a falling test mass, these devices utilise laser-cooled cold-atom clouds. The Absolute Quantum Gravimeter (AQG) produced by the French company Exail is available in two model series: indoor observatory devices (A-series) and outdoor capable devices (B-series).

In this contribution, we present the results of the world's first AQG comparison, conducted in January 2024 at Leibniz University Hanover (Germany) in the gravimetric laboratory of the HiTec building.

Five AQG units (B-series) participated in the comparison, operated by teams from France, Poland and Germany. The measurement activities were conducted over a five-day period, comprising 12-hour tracking series conducted both during the day and night. In contrast with traditional gravity comparisons, the primary objective of these joint measurements was to enhance the understanding of the operational principles of AQGs. In addition to the long measurements each device carried out on 3 out of 5 available pillars, dedicated tests were conducted jointly on all instruments, including tiltmeter calibrations and accelerometer response. The data processing and evaluation focused on device characteristics, stability over time, individual noise levels, and statistical uncertainties of individual measurements.

The joint AQG measurements were independently supported by classical relative and absolute gravity measurements with CG6 and FG5 gravimeters.

How to cite: Merlet, S., Reich, M., Dykowski, P., Vermeulen, P., Arnal, M., Gebauer, A., Sobh, M., Addi, N., Le Moigne, N., Thoss, H., Sekowski, M., Bergmann, J., and Timmen, L.: Results and Findings from the Worldwide First Joint Measurements with 5 Absolute Quantum Gravimeters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16499, 2025.

EGU25-17252 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.2

Gravimetry platform for evaluation and characterization of quantum technologies 

Nawel Addi, Franck Pereira Dos Santos, and Sébastien Merlet

The Horizon Europe project “Qu-Test” [1] aims to establish a European infrastructure open to industry for the characterization and testing of components, subsystems, and instruments developed from quantum technologies. As part of this project, led by a consortium of Research Technology Institutes and National Metrology Institutes within the European Union, we are developing a platform for the functional and metrological characterization of quantum gravimeters.

In my poster, I will present our reference site, which comprises our laboratory, characterized instruments, and models derived from 20 years of measurements.

Our laboratory, located in the Paris region, features a 6 m × 5.5 m × 2 m concrete platform supported by 12 m long legs that reach the Fontainebleau sands layer. Initially constructed for the LNE Watt Balance [2], our activities have since expanded to include the use, study, characterization, and calibration of various types of instruments. Relative spring-based gravimeters, such as portable Scintrex CG5 and CG6 models, enable us to map and model gravity differences throughout the laboratory's 40 m³ volume. A superconducting relative gravimeter iGrav, allows continuous monitoring of temporal changes of g. The absolute reference value is provided by the atomic gravimeter CAG [3], which calibrates the iGrav’s scale factor [4] and evaluates its drift.

The laboratory's size facilitates the simultaneous accommodation of several gravimeters, enabling regular comparison campaigns. The first comparison in 2006 involved only absolute gravimeters of the FG5 type, while recent comparisons have also included atomic gravimeters like AQGs [5]. The site is routinely used to assess the performance and verify the functionality of the French national gravimeter park (PIN PGravi) [6], particularly before participating in international comparisons with FG5 (#206 and #228) [7] and AQG-B01 [8].

This open-access reference site allows users to verify their instruments before field missions, calibrate spring-based relative gravimeters such as the gPhoneX, and test new developments, including quantum gravimeter and dual gravi-gradio-meter systems.

[1] https://qu-test.eu

[2] M. Thomas et al (2017) metrologia 54

[3] R. Karcher et al (2018) New J. Phys 20

[4] S. Merlet et al (2021) J Geod 95

[5] V. Ménoret et al (2018) Sci Rep 8

[6] S. Merlet et al (2024) IEEE Instrum Meas Mag 27

[7] H. Wziontek et al (2025) G4.2 EGU

[8] S. Merlet et al (2025) G4.2 EGU

How to cite: Addi, N., Pereira Dos Santos, F., and Merlet, S.: Gravimetry platform for evaluation and characterization of quantum technologies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17252, 2025.

EGU25-17732 | ECS | Posters on site | G4.2

CARIOQA Pathfinder Mission Development towards Future Quantum Space Gravimetry Missions  

Nina Fletling, Annike Knabe, Jürgen Müller, Manuel Schilling, Liliane Biskupek, and Matthias Weigelt

For over two decades, satellite gravimetry missions have been measuring the Earth’s gravity field globally providing valuable observations for geosciences. Successor missions are already in development to extend this time series. Future objectives include achieving higher spatial and temporal resolutions of gravity field products as well as enhancing the measurement accuracy, currently constraint by, among other aspects, instrument performances. While some adaptations have already been made or are foreseen for the upcoming MAGIC constellation, a significant advancement could be made by replacing or combining the commonly used electrostatic accelerometer on board the satellites with quantum-based sensors to overcome currently existing limitations.

Before launching a dedicated quantum space gravimetry mission, however, the application of a cold atom interferometer as an accelerometer in space needs to be demonstrated to reach the necessary technology readiness level. This shall be achieved by a quantum pathfinder mission which is prepared in the framework of the Cold Atom Rubidium Interferometer in Orbit for Quantum Accelerometer (CARIOQA) project in the Horizon Europe funding programme. The ongoing Pathfinder Mission Preparation (CARIOQA-PMP) project involves developing an engineering model as well as a comprehensive study on the potential scientific outcome of both the quantum pathfinder mission and a future quantum space gravimetry mission. In parallel to PMP, a Phase A (CARIOQA-PHA) study defining requirements on the mission, instrument and satellite, and assessing the overall feasibility of a quantum space gravimetry pathfinder mission is nearing its completion.

This contribution will present simulated gravity field solutions considering the CARIOQA pathfinder mission, a single satellite in high-low satellite-to-satellite tracking mode, and possible future quantum space gravimetry missions consisting of a satellite constellation utilizing low-low satellite-to-satellite tracking. Closed-loop simulations were carried out to assess the benefits of a quantum-based accelerometer compared to the commonly used electrostatic one and to identify remaining challenges.

CARIOQA-PMP is a joint European project, including experts in satellite instrument development (Airbus, Exail SAS, TELETEL, LEONARDO), quantum sensing (LUH, SYRTE, LP2N, LCAR, ONERA, FORTH), space geodesy, Earth sciences and users of gravity field data (LUH, TUM, POLIMI, DTU), as well as in impact maximisation and assessment (PRAXI Network/FORTH, G.A.C. Group), coordinated by the French and German space agencies CNES and DLR under CNES lead. The CARIOQA-PHA project includes key partners (CNES, DLR, ADS-F, ADS-G, FORTH) from the CARIOQA-PMP consortium, plus a new industrial partner for the mission analysis (GMV).

We acknowledge the funding by the European Union for the projects CARIOQA-PMP (Project-ID 101081775) and CARIOQA-PHA (Project-ID 101135075).

How to cite: Fletling, N., Knabe, A., Müller, J., Schilling, M., Biskupek, L., and Weigelt, M.: CARIOQA Pathfinder Mission Development towards Future Quantum Space Gravimetry Missions , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17732, 2025.

EGU25-17773 | Posters on site | G4.2

CARIOQA-PMP: preliminary results of gravity field recovery simulations for the pathfinder mission by the space-wise approach 

Lorenzo Rossi, Mirko Reguzzoni, Amir Mohammad Eslami, Khulan Batsukh, and Federica Migliaccio

The Cold Atom Rubidium Interferometer in Orbit for Quantum Accelerometry - Pathfinder Mission Preparation project (CARIOQA-PMP) is funded under the EU HORIZON program with the aim of developing quantum accelerometers for space applications. Such technology will be used for satellite-based Earth science to support monitoring climate change and the development of mitigation and adaption measures.

The aim of the current work is to assess the expected gravity field recovery performance of the CARIOQA pathfinder mission by running end-to-end simulations based on possible mission configurations. The satellite will be equipped with a single-arm quantum accelerometer and a GNSS receiver. Orbital parameters and instrumental error models are provided by the technological partners of the project. In particular, three orbital scenarios are considered (circular, elliptical and variable-altitude orbits) and a CAI accelerometer with 10-10 m/s2 accuracy level is assumed.

The simulations are performed by applying the space-wise approach developed at POLIMI. The results show that the CARIOQA pathfinder mission is promising for the estimation of the very low degrees of the time variable gravity field, thanks to the almost flat error power spectral density of the cold atom interferometer.

 

How to cite: Rossi, L., Reguzzoni, M., Eslami, A. M., Batsukh, K., and Migliaccio, F.: CARIOQA-PMP: preliminary results of gravity field recovery simulations for the pathfinder mission by the space-wise approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17773, 2025.

EGU25-19523 | Posters on site | G4.2

The CARIOQA Project - A Cold Atom Rubidium Interferometer in Orbit for Quantum Accelerometry 

Liliane Biskupek and the CARIOQA Consortium

The CARIOQA (Cold Atom Rubidium Interferometer in Orbit for Quantum) project aims for the preparation of a pathfinder mission with an atom interferometric accelerometer for a deployment in future missions for earth observation. Atom interferometers offers drift-free, long-term stable measurements, complementing established technology, and consequently the expectation of improved data recovery at low frequencies.

To date, comer cialisation of atom interferometers is ongoing, they were deployed on mobile platforms, and atom optics payloads were adapted to and operated on a zero-g plane, a drop tower, sounding rockets, and a space station. The next step would be embarking such a system on a dedicated satellite to verify its functionality, the goal of CARIOQA.

The project is currently being worked on in two parts, the Pathfinder Mission Preparation (PMP) and the Phase A (PHA). The focus of PMP is on the development of an engineering model of the quantum accelerometer accompanied by the scientific background and considerations for the operation in orbit. PHA is investigating the feasibility of a quantum space gravimetry pathfinder mission within the next decade.

This contribution will outline the background and introduce the CARIOQA project.

CARIOQA is a joint European project, funded by the European Union, including experts in satellite instrument development (Airbus, Exail SAS, TELETEL, LEONARDO), quantum sensing (LUH, SYRTE, LP2N, LCAR, ONERA, FORTH), space geodesy, Earth sciences and users of gravity field data (LUH, TUM, POLIMI, DTU), mission analysis (GMV) as well as in impact maximisation and assessment (PRAXI Network/FORTH, G.A.C. Group), coordinated by the French and German space agencies CNES and DLR under CNES lead.

 

How to cite: Biskupek, L. and the CARIOQA Consortium: The CARIOQA Project - A Cold Atom Rubidium Interferometer in Orbit for Quantum Accelerometry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19523, 2025.

EGU25-20592 | Posters on site | G4.2

Modeling a broad spectrum of hydrodynamically nonlinear ocean tides and their observation by continuously recording terrestrial gravimeters 

Henryk Dobslaw, Roman Sulzbach, Christian Voigt, and Hartmut Wziontek

Ocean tide variability can be decomposed into a vast spectrum of individual partial tides with distinct tidal periodicities. Besides the ~10 dominant frequencies well constrained by satellite altimetry, there is a wide range of smaller oscillations that are much less well determined by observations. Besides other tidal subgroups (e.g., radiational tides and degree-3 ocean tides) these comprise hydrodynamically nonlinear ocean tides, which are generated due to the interactions of major tides. The frequencies of these tides are the sums and differences of the generating major tides and do not necessarily have a counterpart in the tide-generating potential. Nonlinear ocean tides possess significantly large amplitudes, especially in shallow waters as they can be found along the coast of the North Sea in Northern Germany.
We present in this contribution new hydrodynamical simulations of the global dynamics of non-linear ocean tides with the numerical shallow-water model TiME (Tidal Model forced by Ephemerides; Sulzbach et. al, 2021). The simulations benefit from an online implementation of self-attraction and loading, which can simultaneously represent this effect for ocean tides from long to sub-semidiurnal periods. Additionally, the model employs an updated implementation of bottom friction, which considers the shear within the vertical flow direction of the tidal transport. The model results are validated with a network of terrestrial superconducting gravimeters, which are sensitive to both local and global mass anomalies induced by ocean tides. Therefore, gravimeters are not only sensitive to the local sea surface anomaly but integrate this information over a larger area. As they additionally possess a very low noise level and their respective time series have considerable length, gravimeters are well suited to detect these spatially extended mass anomalies of low amplitude. Periods considered in this work range from 1 month down to 4 hours. Depending on the generation type of the different nonlinear tides it can be shown that the observed tidal variability can be well reduced by employing TiME predictions for selected frequencies.

How to cite: Dobslaw, H., Sulzbach, R., Voigt, C., and Wziontek, H.: Modeling a broad spectrum of hydrodynamically nonlinear ocean tides and their observation by continuously recording terrestrial gravimeters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20592, 2025.

EGU25-20699 | Orals | G4.2

Quantum Pathways Institute contributions to a roadmap for technical implementation and scientific interpretation of a spaceborne quantum gravity gradiometer. 

Srinivas Bettadpur, Ufuk Topcu, Seth Bank, Dan Wasserman, Murray Holland, Dana Anderson, Penina Axelrad, Marco Nicotra, Dan Blumenthal, Michael Watkins, and Michelle Stephens

The Quantum Pathways Institute (QPI), sponsored by NASA/STMD, is a collaborative effort between UT Austin, CU Boulder, Caltech, UC Santa Barbara, and NIST. The QPI is focused on advancing quantum sensing technology for next-generation Earth science applications, and its vision targets 1 micro-Eotvos precision gravity gradient measurements in orbit, requiring femto-meter/s^2 inertial sensing. Such a gravity gradiometer system could target ice-mass loss measurements within 10 Gt/year, ocean heat uptake inference within 0.1 W/m^2, and better than 0.1 mm/year sea-level rise inference.

This paper reports progress on two fronts. First a short summary status of QPI team’s work is presented, on quantum sensing research, conceptual development, and experimental results targeted towards a gravity gradiometer system. Second, we present progress in developing a roadmap to science mission implementation, including progress in addressing some key technical spaceflight and data analysis challenges.

How to cite: Bettadpur, S., Topcu, U., Bank, S., Wasserman, D., Holland, M., Anderson, D., Axelrad, P., Nicotra, M., Blumenthal, D., Watkins, M., and Stephens, M.: Quantum Pathways Institute contributions to a roadmap for technical implementation and scientific interpretation of a spaceborne quantum gravity gradiometer., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20699, 2025.

Accelerometry has become crucial for monitoring mass change and geophysical phenomena within the Earth, as well as dynamics on planetary systems. Optomechanical inertial sensors are novel alternative instruments that feature characteristic advantages such as lower cost, size, weight and power (CSWaP) with acceleration sensitivities on par with GRACE. Reduced CSWaP makes these instruments suitable for enhancing mission reliability as redundant accelerometers, and can also improve science data quality by providing measurements of thruster firings and transient effects, among others.

Moreover, low CSWaP optomechanical instruments would enable cost-effective mission designs, spacecraft miniaturization, simplified architectures, as well as the deployment of constellations of satellite pairs flying at lower altitudes.

We will discuss some of the potential science cases that can be addressed with this technology, as well as current status and progress in the development of these novel low-frequency optomechanical inertial sensing technologies.

We will present updates on recent measurements, showing noise floors in the order of 8 pico-g above 60 mHz in our laboratory, as well as their planned use in upcoming space demonstrations.

How to cite: Guzman, F.: Optomechanical inertial sensors and their applications to Earth and Planetary science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20735, 2025.

EGU25-3337 | ECS | Orals | EMRP2.5

On the low-latitude ionospheric responses to the May-2024 geomagnetic storm observed by LEO satellites 

Suman Kumar Das, Claudia Stolle, Yosuke Yamazaki, Juan Rodríguez-Zuluaga, Xin Wan, Guram Kervalishvili, Jan Rauberg, Jiahao Zhong, and Septi Perwitasari

In this study, we analyze electron density measurements from the Low-Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellite constellations Swarm and GRACE-FO to examine the effects of the May-2024 geomagnetic storm on the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere. Results show that the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) was particularly enhanced on the dayside and depleted on the nightside. Notably, an intensification of the EIA was observed during early morning hours (at ~05/07 LTs) by the GRACE-FO and Swarm A satellites. The observed EIA modifications can be attributed to the strong influence of the electric fields and thermospheric winds. Comparisons with CHAMP and GRACE observations during the Halloween storm indicate an increase of a similar order of magnitude in the EIA’s crest-to-trough ratio (CTR) and L-value around similar local times and longitudes, emphasizing the May-2024 storm as one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in the space age. Additionally, strong equatorial plasma depletion (EPD) activity was noted, including EPDs detected during early morning hours at ~05 LT (~07 LT) by GRACE-FO (Swarm A). These EPDs reached very high apex altitudes of ~5000 km during pre-midnight and ~3400 km at early morning hours during 11-12 May, in contrast to ~1000 km during pre-storm conditions. The lower apex altitude of the early morning EPDs than of the pre-midnight EPDs suggests that these EPDs are generated after midnight and they are not remnants from the previous evening. This suggestion is also supported by ground-based ionosonde observations in Southeast Asia, combined with satellite data, which reveal an elevation of the ionosphere after midnight, supporting the Rayleigh-Taylor instability mechanism crucial for the EPD growth.

How to cite: Das, S. K., Stolle, C., Yamazaki, Y., Rodríguez-Zuluaga, J., Wan, X., Kervalishvili, G., Rauberg, J., Zhong, J., and Perwitasari, S.: On the low-latitude ionospheric responses to the May-2024 geomagnetic storm observed by LEO satellites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3337, 2025.

EGU25-4988 | Orals | EMRP2.5

Ionosphere-Thermosphere System Response During the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm 

Loredana Perrone, Andrey Mikhaylov, Dario Sabbagh, and Paolo Bagiacchi

The response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system in Europe during the severe geomagnetic storm of May 2024 was investigated. Between May 7 and 11, multiple X-class solar flares and at least five Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. The initial CME impacted Earth at 12:30 PM UTC on May 10, triggering a geomagnetic enhancement and inducing a negative ionospheric storm over mid-latitude European stations, leading to data gaps on May 11 due to the "G condition" (wherein the electron density at the F2 layer maximum equals or falls below that of the F1 layer maximum).

Thermospheric parameters analyzed using the THERION method revealed a 60% increase in neutral [O] density at 300 km altitude and elevated thermospheric temperatures(~50% increase), while column [O] concentrations showed a ~30% decrease. Enhanced equatorward winds, peaking at 79 m/s, were observed between May 10 and 13. Comparative analysis with other longitudinal sectors confirmed significant regional responses, emphasizing the dynamic behavior of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system during severe geomagnetic events.

 

How to cite: Perrone, L., Mikhaylov, A., Sabbagh, D., and Bagiacchi, P.: Ionosphere-Thermosphere System Response During the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4988, 2025.

EGU25-6857 | Orals | EMRP2.5 | Highlight

Missions and efforts using magnetic field observations to advance our knowledge of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (MIT) system 

Astrid Maute, Jeng-Hwa Yee, Jesper Gjerloev, Patrick Alken, and Slava Merkin

Magnetic field observations have a long history of advancing our understanding of ionospheric current flow, even before we launched space missions. Earlier magnetic field missions were single satellites that provided new insights into ionospheric current flow. Swarm is the first constellation focused on measuring magnetic fields from LEO. In this talk, we will focus on the value of knowing the magnetic field variation and discuss challenges, advances, and future opportunities.

One scientist's signal is another scientist's noise, and therefore working with magnetic perturbation leads to the collaboration of scientists from solid Earth to the magnetosphere. Opportunities can be challenges since magnetic observations include the signal from many sources which can be from far away or close by, making the interpretation of magnetic signals often difficult. In ionosphere-thermosphere numerical modeling, magnetic perturbations are not a standard diagnostic even though a wealth of data exists. While ionospheric data is used for data assimilation, magnetic data so far is not. A huge advantage of the Swarm satellite configuration is that it can unambiguously identify ionospheric current flow when the satellites are close. A similar concept is used by NASA Electrojet Zeeman Imaging Explorer (EZIE), a CubeSat mission scheduled for launch in spring 2025. In addition, EZIE is unique as it will measure the magnetic field around 80 km remotely via Zeeman splitting, to shed light on the substorm current flow and the equatorial electrojet.

In this presentation, we will describe the value of studying the ionospheric current to gain insights into the ionosphere-thermosphere system. We will show examples from high to low latitudes illustrating how magnetic perturbation especially in constellations and combined ground and space based data can advance our understanding of the MIT system. We conclude with thoughts about future observations.

How to cite: Maute, A., Yee, J.-H., Gjerloev, J., Alken, P., and Merkin, S.: Missions and efforts using magnetic field observations to advance our knowledge of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (MIT) system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6857, 2025.

EGU25-7098 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

Ray Tracing of the Equatorial Extremely Low Frequency Whistlers Detected by the Swarm Mission 

Martin Jenner, Pierdavide Coisson, Gauthier Hulot, Robin Deborde, and Louis Chauvet

Whistlers are generated by the electromagnetic signal from lightning discharges leaking into the
ionosphere and magnetosphere. They propagate upward through the ionosphere, where they can be
detected by satellites. The dispersion of whistler signal during propagation has been empirically
described by Eckersley [1935] by the following law: T = D / √ f , where T is the group delay of the
wave packet, f is its frequency and D is called the dispersion of the whistler.
We focus on events detected during burst-mode campaigns of the Absolute Scalar Magnetometer
(ASM) of the Swarm satellites at orbital altitudes ~475 km (Alpha) and ~510 km (Bravo). Since
the bandwidth of interest of this instrument lies between 10 Hz and 125 Hz, the whistlers detected
are in the Extremely Low Frequency (ELF). In this band, whistler propagation differs from the
more commonly studied Very Low Frequency (VLF) whistlers and presents a unique set of
characteristics. In particular, in the equatorial region (±5° of magnetic inclination), Eckersley’s
empirical dispersion description seems to break down.
To investigate such propagation oddity, we model the ELF whistler propagation of equatorial
whistler with a ray tracing technique using the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI) and
a local dipolar magnetic field approximation derived from the IGRF-13 as background models.
Ray tracing provides an estimate of the propagation path and the group delay of the whistler. Since
ray tracing is an application of geometric optics, it has inherent limitations for large wavelength
that are characterized in the context of ELF whistler simulation.
Ray tracing allows us to successfully model ELF whistler dispersion as detected by Swarm ASM.
This is tested on both whistler following Eckersley’s law and equatorial whistlers. For the latter
case, the simulated group delay is shown to have two main contributions: the first is related to the
expected wave dispersion and the second to the special propagation geometry of these signals.
Indeed, the various frequency components of equatorial whistlers have ray paths that differs
widely, impacting the length traveled by the rays and thus their group delay. This explains well the
group delay of ELF equatorial seen in Swarm ASM data.

How to cite: Jenner, M., Coisson, P., Hulot, G., Deborde, R., and Chauvet, L.: Ray Tracing of the Equatorial Extremely Low Frequency Whistlers Detected by the Swarm Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7098, 2025.

EGU25-7665 | Orals | EMRP2.5

A Pc3 magnetic pulsation possibly associated with the Lamb wave generated by the 2022 Tonga undersea volcanic eruption 

Toshihiko Iyemori, Yoshihiro Yokoyama, and Tadashi Aoyama

A peculiar compressional Pc3 magnetic pulsation was observed by the Swarm satellites on the dayside which may have been caused by the Lamb wave generated at the Tonga undersea volcanic eruption on January 15, 2022. The difference between this and other usual compressional Pc3 pulsations observed at low and mid-latitudes is its spectral structure. The power spectral density (PSD) usually peaks at the periods between 20 and 30 sec, but in this event observed on the dayside orbit around the time when the Lamb wave passed under the Swarm orbit, the PSD peaks below 20 sec and is small in the periods longer than 20 sec. It is shown that this is a very rare case, although not the only one, during the period examined, i.e., from December 2013 to April 2022. The PSD has many sharp spectral peaks, but they don't have usual harmonic structure, and the frequencies of the peaks are nearly common with those of other similar events. The Pc3s observed at low-latitude (L<3 Re) ground magnetic stations simultaneously with the satellites show a very good correspondence of PSD peaks with those of the Swarm satellites although those of high-latitude station do not. The solar wind on January 15, 2022 was disturbed and high speed, so the possibility that the solar wind was the cause of the Pc3 cannot be completely excluded. However, the coincidence of the Pc3 appearance with the Lamb wave arrival, its peculiar spectral structure, and a comparison with ground magnetic observations suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be related to the Lamb wave arrival. A plasmaspheric cavity resonance excited by a magneto-sonic wave injected from the ionosphere via ionospheric dynamo could be a possible mechanism. This is probably the first report on a Pc3 magnetic pulsation possibly caused by lower atmospheric disturbance.

How to cite: Iyemori, T., Yokoyama, Y., and Aoyama, T.: A Pc3 magnetic pulsation possibly associated with the Lamb wave generated by the 2022 Tonga undersea volcanic eruption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7665, 2025.

EGU25-9287 * | Orals | EMRP2.5 | Highlight

The Upcoming ESA Scout NanoMagSat Mission, a Nanosatellite Constellation to Further Improve Geomagnetic Field and Ionospheric Environment Monitoring and Modeling 

Gauthier Hulot, Pierdavide Coïsson, Jean-Michel Léger, Lasse B. N. Clausen, John L. Jørgensen, Jose van den Ijssel, Louis Chauvet, Thomas Jager, Florian Deconinck, Pepe Nieto, Fabrice Cipriani, Massimiliano Pastena, and Jean-Pascal Lejault

Geomagnetic field and ionospheric environment monitoring is presently achieved with huge success by the three satellites of the Swarm Earth Explorer ESA constellation launched in November 2013. Maintaining and improving observations beyond the lifetime of Swarm is critical for both science investigations and advanced applications. NanoMagSat aims at fulfilling this goal. This much cheaper mission is currently in Phase B within the context of the ESA Scout program. It will deploy and operate a new Low-Earth orbiting constellation of three identical 16U nanosatellites, using two inclined (~ 60°) and one polar orbits at an initial altitude of 545 km, to complement and take over the Swarm mission. The mission is planned to start deploying end of 2027, for a minimum of three years of full constellation operation between 2028 and 2031.

This constellation is designed to cover all local times (LT) at all latitudes, with special emphasis on latitudes between 60°N and 60°S, where all LT will be visited within about a month, much faster than is currently achieved by the Swarm constellation. Each satellite will carry an advanced Miniaturized Absolute scalar and self-calibrated vector Magnetometer (MAM) with star trackers (STR) collocated on an ultra-stable optical bench at the tip of a deployable boom, a new compact High Frequency Magnetometer (HFM) (at mid-boom), a multi-Needle Langmuir Probe (m-NLP) and dual frequency GNSS receivers (all on the satellite body). This payload suite will acquire high-precision/resolution oriented absolute vector magnetic data at 1 Hz, very low noise scalar and vector magnetic field data at 2 kHz, electron density data at 2 kHz, and electron temperature data at 1 Hz. GNSS receivers will also allow top-side TEC and ionospheric radio-occultation profiles to be recovered.

In this presentation, the main science goals of the mission will first be introduced and the rationale for the choice of the payload and constellation design next explained. The various data products currently planned to be produced will also be described. Special emphasis will be put on the innovative aspects of the mission with respect to Swarm and other previous missions. Finally, the benefit of relying on such nanosatellite constellations for maintaining long-term observations of the magnetic field and ionospheric environment, to complement ground-based observations will also be discussed.

How to cite: Hulot, G., Coïsson, P., Léger, J.-M., Clausen, L. B. N., Jørgensen, J. L., van den Ijssel, J., Chauvet, L., Jager, T., Deconinck, F., Nieto, P., Cipriani, F., Pastena, M., and Lejault, J.-P.: The Upcoming ESA Scout NanoMagSat Mission, a Nanosatellite Constellation to Further Improve Geomagnetic Field and Ionospheric Environment Monitoring and Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9287, 2025.

Modern geomagnetic field models can successfully represent many details of the observed large-scale field and its slow time changes. However, the obtained model uncertainty is often underestimated, which limits our ability to evaluate the reliability of signals recovered in the field models. The increasing amount of globally distributed, high-quality magnetic data observed by low-Earth orbit satellites, such as Swarm, MSS-1 and the planned NanoMagSat mission, present an opportunity to improve the model uncertainty by providing important statistical information on the expected errors of the input magnetic data used in field modelling.  

During the field model estimation, data errors are usually assumed to be uncorrelated in time and independent of position. However, limitations in the parameterization of the models regarding magnetospheric and ionospheric sources lead to residuals between model predictions and magnetic observations that are not only larger than the expected measurement noise but are also correlated and varying with position. Not adequately describing these correlations during the model estimation leads to unrealistic model uncertainties, which hinders, for example, their use in applications such as assimilation into numerical Geodynamo simulations.

Here, the statistics of vector residuals between magnetic observations from the Swarm satellites and the CHAOS-7 geomagnetic field model predictions are studied by computing sample means and covariances for the field components as a function of time and magnetic coordinates. This analysis reveals significant covariances, particularly at mid-to-high latitudes. The sample covariances are used to construct non-diagonal data error covariance matrices, which can be used in field modelling.

Finally, test field models built using the non-diagonal data error covariances matrices within the CHAOS modelling framework are discussed, illustrating the effect of correlated data errors on the recovered fields and the associated model uncertainties.

How to cite: Kloss, C.: Accounting for correlated errors in Swarm magnetic data within the CHAOS field modelling framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11188, 2025.

EGU25-11455 | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

The Plasma Waves Instrument for LilacSat-3 Mission 

Yuhui Fu, Li Zeng, Fulin Shi, Fan Wu, Ruichen Xi, and Jinbin Cao

The ionosphere is the nearest natural plasma laboratory to the Earth. Ionospheric plasma waves serve as a important diagnostic tool for understanding space plasma and space weather. The CSES 01 mission and the DEMETER satellite made in-situ measurements of low-frequency plasma waves on sun-synchronous orbits and observed a large number of wave events, including whistlers, ionospheric hiss, and artificial very low-frequency (VLF) emissions, which revealed the local response of the ionosphere to natural hazards, space weather events, and human activities such as long-distance power line harmonic radiation and high-power VLF emissions. Moreover, the propagation of low-frequency electromagnetic waves in ionospheric plasma exhibits an obvious variation with altitude. However, it is not enough to study in-situ propagation characteristics of waves at different altitudes in the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere. The micro-satellite LilacSat-3 provides an opportunity for this study. LilacSat-3, a thin disk-shaped satellite with a diameter of 1 meter, developed by Harbin Institute of Technology, will be launched into a sun-synchronous orbit with a variable altitude, gradually decreasing from an initial altitude of 500 kilometers. LilacSat-3 Plasma Waves Instrument (PWI), developed by School of Space and Earth Sciences, Beihang University, incorporates a pair of concentric loops designed to measure the magnetic component of ionospheric plasma waves and ionospheric disturbance caused by ground-based artificial VLF emissions along the normal direction of the satellite disk, providing a data source for revealing the characteristics of ionospheric response to space weather events in Low Earth orbit (LEO) and studying the propagation of artificial VLF emissions. The boomless concentric loop sensors exhibit intrinsic structural compatibility with the disk-shaped satellite. PWI adopts a high-accuracy data acquisition unit with 24-bit resolution and a maximum sampling frequency up to 200kHz, and is timed by Pulse per Second (PPS) signal with an accuracy of 1μs. The operating frequency range of PWI is up to 100kHz. LilacSat-3 mission is anticipated to be launched in mid-2025.

How to cite: Fu, Y., Zeng, L., Shi, F., Wu, F., Xi, R., and Cao, J.: The Plasma Waves Instrument for LilacSat-3 Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11455, 2025.

EGU25-12183 | Orals | EMRP2.5

MSCM: A geomagnetic Model derived from Swarm, CSES and MSS-1 satellite data and the evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly 

Yu Gao, Zhengtao Wang, Phil Livermore, Hannah Rogers, and Cong Liu

Measurements from geomagnetic satellites continue to underpin advances in geomagnetic field models that describe Earth’s internally generated magnetic field. Here we present a new field model: MSCM that integrates vector and scalar data from the Swarm, CSES, and MSS-1 satellites. The model spans 2014.0 to 2024.5, incorporating the core, lithospheric, and magnetospheric fields, showing similar characteristics to other published models. For the first time, we demonstrate that incorporating CSES vector data successfully produces a geomagnetic field model, albeit one in which the radial and azimuthal CSES vector components are Huber downweighted. We further show that data from MSS-1 can be used to construct a fully time-dependent geomagnetic field model. MSCM identifies new behaviour of the South Atlantic Anomaly, the broad region of low magnetic field intensity over the southern Atlantic. This prominent feature appears split into a western and eastern part, each with its own intensity minimum. Since 2015, the principal western minimum has undergone only modest intensity decreases of 290 nT and westward motion of 20km/yr, while the recently-formed eastern minimum has shown an intensity drop 2-3 times greater of 730nT with no apparent motion. 

How to cite: Gao, Y., Wang, Z., Livermore, P., Rogers, H., and Liu, C.: MSCM: A geomagnetic Model derived from Swarm, CSES and MSS-1 satellite data and the evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12183, 2025.

EGU25-12507 | ECS | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

A study of ionospheric variability through SWARM and ground-based observations to inform on the variability of radio propagation effects. 

Tianchu Lu, Biagio Forte, Paul Kinsler, and Jose Van den IJssel

Radio waves are subject to a variety of propagation effects when traversing through the ionosphere.  These effects depend on the radio wave frequency as well as on the ionospheric conditions that determine the spatial distribution of plasma density along a given ray path. Ionospheric propagation effects can be determined at various orders of approximation of the Appleton-Hartree equation for the refractive index. These propagation effects vary according to the variability of the ionosphere, which is driven by complex combinations between factors such as solar and magnetic activities, 

This contribution discusses the variability of ionospheric conditions in relation to propagation effects. The ionospheric variability was estimated by using a diverse set of information: ionospheric and magnetic models, in-situ and ground observations.  

Within a timespan of a solar cycle, from November 2013 to November 2024, the European Space Agency's SWARM constellation has enabled unprecedented studies of Earth's Ionosphere and Magnetosphere through the provision of continuous, high temporal and spatial measurements of electron density and magnetic field parameters. In this work electron density and magnetic field in-situ SWARM observations are compared with the IRI model (Bilitza et al., 2017), the IGRF model (Thebault et al., 2015), and with ground observations. Ground-based observations, including electron density parameters recorded by GIRO ionosondes and magnetic field strength recorded by selected magnetometers, collected at geographically diverse locations were compared with SWARM’s in-situ measurements at different magnetic latitudes/longitudes, and under various ionospheric conditions over an entire solar cycle.

This analysis covered an entire solar cycle period and included an assessment of both active and quiet conditions (e.g., through the use of indices such as Kp). 

Initial comparisons between SWARM’s electron density in-situ measurements, GIRO ionosonde observations and the IRI model, as well as between SWARM’s magnetic field strength measurements, ground-based magnetometer data and the IGRF model, seem to suggest a higher ionospheric variability across different latitudes/longitudes, and geomagnetic conditions. The results indicate how a dataset such as offered by SWARM and other similar missions, in synergy with ground-based observations, can form a useful framework to improve the understanding of the ionospheric variability and the corresponding propagation effects.

 

[1] Bilitza, D., Shubin, V., Truhlik, V., Richards, P., Reinisch, B., & Huang, X. (2017). International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real-time weather predictions. Space Weather, 15(2), 418–429.

[2] Thebault, E., Finlay, C. C., Beggan, C. D., Alken, P., Aubert, J., Barrois, O., … & Zhou, B. (2015). International Geomagnetic Reference Field: The 12th generation. Earth, Planets and Space, 67, 79.

How to cite: Lu, T., Forte, B., Kinsler, P., and Van den IJssel, J.: A study of ionospheric variability through SWARM and ground-based observations to inform on the variability of radio propagation effects., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12507, 2025.

EGU25-13355 | ECS | Orals | EMRP2.5

Electron density modelling at Swarm height using Neural Networks for space weather monitoring 

Marjolijn Adolfs and Mohammed Mainul Hoque

The Swarm data base is well-suited to address a number of topics of serious interest in space weather science and monitoring as for instance: spatial and temporal characteristics of ionospheric electron density, improving topside approaches in ionospheric models for monitoring and forecasting the dynamics of the geo-plasma environment. In this study, we developed a neural network-based electron density model using the electron density measured by Langmuir probes on the Swarm A and C satellites. Data from the years 2014 till 2021 has been used for this study, where the satellites have an approximate altitude range of 470-430 km. The model’s capability of showing large and small-scale features of the ionosphere was tested and the results show that the model is capable of showing the crest formations on both sides of the magnetic equator, as well as seasonal and diurnal variations. Furthermore, using the neural network-based model predictions, the nighttime winter anomaly (NWA) feature was investigated. The NWA is a small-scale feature that can be observed during low solar activity conditions at nighttime in the Northern Hemisphere at the American sector and in the Southern Hemisphere at the Asian sector. Such electron density models at specific height region can be used for three-dimensional ionosphere model validation as well as for the development of improved ionosphere models. Again, accurate modelling and monitoring of ionospheric electron density at certain height region can help prediction of space weather impact.

How to cite: Adolfs, M. and Hoque, M. M.: Electron density modelling at Swarm height using Neural Networks for space weather monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13355, 2025.

The Swarm satellite mission, launched by the European Space Agency in 2013, investigates Earth's ionosphere using advanced onboard instruments, including GPS receivers capable of tracking signals from up to eight satellites simultaneously. Loss of navigational capability, defined as periods when fewer than four GPS satellites are tracked, poses significant challenges for precise positioning and mission operations.
 
Before 2020, the frequency of these events was relatively low, with fewer than 200 occurrences for Swarm A and C, and fewer than 100 for Swarm B. After 2020, the number of events increased dramatically, exceeding 1,400 for Swarm A and C, and 400 for Swarm B. While geomagnetic activity directly affects high-latitude regions, less than 10% of these events occur in the high-latitude ionosphere, suggesting indirect influences of magnetic storms on other latitudes through associated phenomena.
 
This study investigates the correlation between geomagnetic activity and loss of navigational capability, exploring whether geomagnetic indices and magnetic storms act as precursors or are unrelated to these events. The findings will provide insights into the interplay between space weather and satellite-based navigation, contributing to improved operational resilience in future satellite missions.

How to cite: Knudsen, D. and Ghadjari, H.: Investigating the Role of Geomagnetic Activity in Loss of Navigational Capability in the Swarm Satellite Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14321, 2025.

EGU25-14373 | ECS | Orals | EMRP2.5 | Highlight

Investigating Low-latitude Ionospheric Variations During the 2024 "Mother's Day Storm": Combined Swarm and Ground-Based Observations 

Ali Mohandesi, David J. Knudsen, Susan Skone, and Hossein Ghadjari

Geomagnetic storms significantly impact the morphology and dynamics of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA). The geomagnetic storm of May 10, 2024, also known as the “Mother’s Day Storm”, was the most intense geomagnetic storm in the last two solar cycles. Given its severity, understanding the storm's impact on the ionosphere is crucial. This study investigates the variations of the low-latitude ionosphere during the Mother's Day Storm, utilizing observations from ESA’s Swarm satellites, as well as total electron density (TEC) estimates from the ground.

Data from the Langmuir Probes, the Electric Field Instrument (EFI), and TEC derived from GPS receivers onboard The Swarm satellites were used to analyze the F-region ionosphere. Additionally, ground-based TEC maps from the Madrigal database were employed to examine the altitudinal evolution of the EIA structure.

Results demonstrate a significant enhancement of the double-peak electron density structure of the EIA during the main phase of the storm (starting around 17 UT on May 10), with evidence of the super fountain effect. The EIA crests reached altitudes above the Swarm B satellite orbit (510 km), extending to approximately 40 degrees north and south of the equator. In contrast, the generation of the EIA was suppressed during the storm's recovery phase. These behaviors are interpreted in the context of storm-induced electric fields.

How to cite: Mohandesi, A., Knudsen, D. J., Skone, S., and Ghadjari, H.: Investigating Low-latitude Ionospheric Variations During the 2024 "Mother's Day Storm": Combined Swarm and Ground-Based Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14373, 2025.

EGU25-15092 | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

CSESpy: a unified framework for data analysis of the payloads on board the CSES satellite 

Emanuele Papini, Francesco Maria Follega, Mirko Piersanti, Roberto Battiston, and Piero Diego

The China-Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) mission delivers in-situ measurements of the plasma, electromagnetic fields, and charged particles in the topside ionosphere. Each CSES spacecraft carries several different scientific payloads delivering a wealth of information about the ionospheric plasma dynamics and properties and the energetic particles precipitating in the ionosphere or coming from outside the Earth environment. Here we present CSESpy, a python package designed to provide easy access to CSES Level 2 data products, with the aim to ease the pathway for scientists to carry out the analysis of CSES data, increase opportunities for collaboration and boost joint research efforts.Beyond simply being an interface to the CSES database, CSESpy aims at providing higher-level analysis and visualization tools, as well as tools for combining concurrent measurements from different data products, so as to allow multi-payload and even multi-satellite studies in a unified framework. CSESpy is designed to be highly flexible, as such it can be extended to interface with datasets from other sources and can be embedded in wider software ecosystems for the analysis of space physics data. Tools like CSESpy are crucial for advancing our understanding of complex ionospheric and space weather phenomena that are otherwise challenging to investigate, thereby contributing significantly to advancements in space physics research.

How to cite: Papini, E., Follega, F. M., Piersanti, M., Battiston, R., and Diego, P.: CSESpy: a unified framework for data analysis of the payloads on board the CSES satellite, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15092, 2025.

EGU25-15392 | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

Variations of upper thermospheric scale height based on neutral mass density measurements from coplanar low-Earth-orbit satellites 

Heikki Vanhamäki, Lei Cai, Anita Aikio, Marcus Pedersen, and Milla Myllymaa

The mass density scale height in the upper atmosphere gives the vertical distance over which the neutral mass density decreases by a factor of e (the base of natural logarithms). The change in scale height may depend on changes in neutral temperature and/or composition. This study uses simultaneous measurements of neutral mass density from coplanar low-Earth-orbit satellites to derive the neutral mass density scale height and analyses the variations of the scale height during quiet time and geomagnetic storms. The coplanar events are found in the satellite missions from 2014 to 2023, including Swarm, GRACE, and GRACE-FO.

Our study shows several interesting findings. During geomagnetic storms, the scale heights are increased significantly (by up to 15 km), probably mainly due to increased upper thermospheric temperature. The increase in scale height depends on latitude, local time, and season. In the summer hemisphere and on the dayside, the upper thermospheric temperature (or exospheric temperature) can be estimated by assuming the dominant composition of the neutrals is the atomic oxygen at the LEO satellite altitudes. Additionally, during quiet time, the semi-diurnal tides are revealed in neutral mass density scale height. The results provide strong evidence of the propagation of the atmospheric tides from below to the topside ionosphere-thermosphere, which affects the upper thermospheric temperature and/or composition. This is also a new way for atmospheric tidal diagnostics based on LEO satellite measurements.

How to cite: Vanhamäki, H., Cai, L., Aikio, A., Pedersen, M., and Myllymaa, M.: Variations of upper thermospheric scale height based on neutral mass density measurements from coplanar low-Earth-orbit satellites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15392, 2025.

EGU25-19863 | ECS | Orals | EMRP2.5

Extreme two-phase change of the ionospheric electron temperature overshoot during geomagnetic storms uncovered by neural networks 

Artem Smirnov, Yuri Shprits, Hermann Lühr, Alessio Pignalberi, Elena Kronberg, Fabricio Prol, and Chao Xiong

An intense surge in equatorial electron temperature (Te) at sunrise, known as the morning Te overshoot, has been one of the most widely studied ionospheric features since its discovery in the early Space Age. Despite extensive research, its behavior during geomagnetic storms remains poorly understood. Using global electron temperature observations by the CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) mission in 2002-2010, we develop a neural network Te model, which helped us uncover a two-stage response of the morning Te overshoot to geomagnetic activity. During the storm’s main phase, electron temperatures in the overshoot region exhibit a pronounced enhancement, which is followed by a dramatic depletion exceeding 1000 K and the disappearance of the overshoot during the recovery phase. This two-phase evolution corresponds to the initial impact of a westward prompt penetration electric field (PPEF), which reduces electron densities therefore allowing for a more efficient energy exchange between the newly ionized particles at sunrise and lower energy (depleted) ambient plasma. The initial PPEF influence is overtaken by the eastward disturbance dynamo field later in the storm, which flips the ExB drift from downward to upward and lifts more electrons into the F-region. Increased electron densities enhance the cooling rates leading to the disappearance of the overshoot in the recovery phase of the storms. Our findings shed new light on the dynamics of the morning electron temperature overshoot and highlight the capability of digital twin models to uncover previously unrecognized physical phenomena in the near-Earth space environment. Additionally, we discuss the applications of the developed model for various ionospheric applications, including the calibration of electron temperatures from Swarm Langmuir Probes. 

How to cite: Smirnov, A., Shprits, Y., Lühr, H., Pignalberi, A., Kronberg, E., Prol, F., and Xiong, C.: Extreme two-phase change of the ionospheric electron temperature overshoot during geomagnetic storms uncovered by neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19863, 2025.

EGU25-20825 | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

ESA's VirES service for accessing and analysing data from Swarm and beyond 

Martin Pačes and Ashley Smith

The VirES service[1] has been developed to make Swarm products accessible to programmers and non-programmers alike. Web services provide robust access to both data and models, which are coupled to a graphical interface for easy exploration and visualisation, as well as Python tooling to support community-developed tools and processing options. VirES is also integrated with other data systems through adoption of the Heliophysics API (HAPI)[2].

The web client GUI provides both 3D visualisation and customisable 2D plotting, allowing data exploration without any programming required. On the other hand, ready-to-run Jupyter notebooks[3] provide the more intrepid explorer the opportunity to generate more bespoke analysis and visualisation. The notebooks are backed by a JupyterHub furnished with domain-relevant Python packages, which together lower the barrier to entry to programming. Both the web client and notebooks are interlinked with the Swarm handbook[4] which provides more detailed documentation of products.

While the service was originally developed to serve Swarm products, we also provide access to ground magnetic observatory data derived from INTERMAGNET, as well as Swarm "multimission" products derived from other spacecraft as part of Swarm projects. We are actively looking into ways in which the service and associated software can support related missions, including the Macau Science Satellites and NanoMagSat.

VirES is developed for ESA by EOX IT Services[5], in close collaboration with researchers across the Swarm Data, Innovation, and Science Cluster (DISC). We aim to produce a sustainable ecosystem of tools and services, which together support accessibility, interoperability, open science, and cloud-based processing. All services are available freely to all, and the software is developed openly on GitHub[6,7].

[1] https://vires.services
[2] https://hapi-server.org
[3] https://notebooks.vires.services
[4] https://swarmhandbook.earth.esa.int
[5] https://eox.at
[6] https://github.com/ESA-VirES
[7] https://github.com/Swarm-DISC

How to cite: Pačes, M. and Smith, A.: ESA's VirES service for accessing and analysing data from Swarm and beyond, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20825, 2025.

EGU25-20929 | Posters on site | EMRP2.5

Korea’s LEO Satellite Explorations of the Earth’s Ionosphere and Thermosphere 

Young-Sil Kwak, Jaejin Lee, Woo Kyoung Lee, Hyosub Kil, and Jaeheung Park

KASI has been developing LEO satellite observation missions to study the Earth's ionosphere and upper atmosphere. These missions include SNIPE (Small scale magNetospheric and Ionospheric Plasma Experiment), SNIPE-2 (Small scale magNetospheric and Ionospheric Plasma Experiment-2), ROKITS (Republic Of Korea Imaging Test System), and ATHENA (Aurora THErmosphere ioNosphere for spAceweather). The successful launch of the SNIPE (Small scale magNetospheric and Ionospheric Plasma Experiment) mission in May 2023, featuring a formation flight of three nanosatellites, enables simultaneous observation of the spatio-temporal changes in plasma microstructures in the near-Earth space. It is still operational as of January 2025 and has provided high-quality observations of ionospheric plasma changes, particularly during the intense geomagnetic storms of May and October 2024. Based on this SNIPE, development of SNIPE-2, which will conduct stable near-Earth space exploration with six CubeSats, has also begun. Looking ahead, KASI’s upcoming mission, ROKITS (Republic Of Korea Imaging Test System), is scheduled for launch in 2025 to observe the Earth’s upper atmosphere with a wide-field aurora/airglow imager in visible wavelength (OI 557.7 nm and OI 630.0 nm). This imager will operate in a noon-midnight sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 600 km. The primary scientific goal of ROKITS is to define the boundary of the auroral oval and analyze various auroral shapes and the evolution of auroral features. Additionally, KASI is initiating an ambitious mission ATHENA (Aurora and Thermosphere: Energetics, Neutrals, and Atmosphere). ATHENA aims to advance our understanding of space weather forced from above and below using the observations by two threshold payloads: optical imagers operating in visual/infrared (KASI/ROKITS_IR) and far-ultraviolet (JHUAPL/GUVI+) wavelengths. ATHENA will fly these instruments in a near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit at about 640km. The key space weather parameters from the mission include auroral boundary and external energy input, atmospheric gravity waves, and vertical profiles of main atmospheric constituents. This presentation outlines the current and future LEO satellite exploration efforts of Korea’s Earth’s ionosphere and Thermosphere.

How to cite: Kwak, Y.-S., Lee, J., Lee, W. K., Kil, H., and Park, J.: Korea’s LEO Satellite Explorations of the Earth’s Ionosphere and Thermosphere, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20929, 2025.

EGU25-518 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

Evidence for very recent tectonic activity in southern Tharsis 

Bartosz Pieterek, Petr Brož, Ernst Hauber, and Oguzcan Karagoz

The formation of Tharsis affected nearly the entire western hemisphere of Mars and had a profound effect on Martian geodynamics. Tharsis-related lithospheric deformation created a variety of tectonic structures that record past stress fields, some of which may still be active today. However, evidence for very recent endogenic activity (<1 Ma) in Tharsis remains limited even after the seismic measurements by the NASA InSight mission. Very few morphologically pristine tectonic structures have been discovered in remote sensing data, limiting our understanding of the current endogenic activity in Tharsis.

Building on our previous research in the southeastern Tharsis region, we focus on the Claritas Fossae region. This area displays several cross-cutting fracture and fault sets, recording a complex history of multiple volcano-tectonic events. Using High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images and stereo image-derived Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), we identified uphill-facing scarps on the west-facing Claritas Rupes scarp, which bounds a major N-S-trending extensional structure, informally called the Thaumasia Graben. The two-kilometer-high steep slopes of Claritas Rupes experience intense mass wasting, producing rockfalls (boulders) that accumulate against these uphill-facing scarps. Despite the high boulder fall rates, which over time could fill the accommodation space created by the uphill-facing scarps and mask them, small of these scarps retain a pristine topography. These observations suggest a very young age (<1 Ma) for these scarps. We interpret these scarps as surface expressions of normal faulting linked to Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformations (DGSDs), likely caused by seismic activity tied to reactivation of the Claritas Rupes fault associated with Thaumasia Graben subsidence. This indicates neotectonic activity in the region, which is potentially still ongoing.

To better constrain the tectonic processes and the mechanism of the very recent small-scale faulting at the Claritas Rupes scarp, our current structural mapping aims at deciphering the orientations and the spatiotemporal relationships of these scarps. Our approach involves obtaining dip angles through a planar fitting method and quantifying shortening along mapped scarp features. This forms the basis for determining effective stress distribution under isotropic stress conditions with plane strain assumptions, offering insights into the youngest stages of the tectonic evolution of this region. Our satellite image-based morphological investigations focusing on fresh-looking scarps show great advances in tectonic feature mapping, offering valuable insights into inaccessible subsurface endogenic processes in southeastern Tharsis.

How to cite: Pieterek, B., Brož, P., Hauber, E., and Karagoz, O.: Evidence for very recent tectonic activity in southern Tharsis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-518, 2025.

EGU25-2216 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

3D Gaussian Splatting for Detailed Reconstruction of Planetary Surfaces from Orbiter Images 

Zhaojin Li, Bo Wu, and Shihan Chen

Three-dimensional (3D) mapping of planetary surfaces is critical for exploration missions and scientific research (Gwinner et al., 2016). Previous research mainly focused on employing rigorous techniques such as photogrammetry and photoclinometry to generate topographic products such as digital elevation models (DEMs). While the integration of these two techniques can yield detailed and precise topographic data, photoclinometric algorithms are heavily dependent on radiometric data and surface reflectance behaviors (Chen, Hu, et al., 2024; Liu and Wu, 2023), which limits their use in different circumstances. This paper undertakes a new endeavor to explore the potential of the emerging 3D Gaussian splatting techniques for a detailed reconstruction of planetary surfaces from orbiter images.

Gaussian Splatting has demonstrated outstanding performance in 3D applications for close-range scenes and has recently attracted significant attention. The primary challenge in utilizing 3D Gaussian Splatting for the reconstruction of planetary surfaces from orbiter images lies in the complexity of the planetary push-broom camera models. The sophisticated camera model and projection algorithm complicate this optimization approach. To address this, a two-step approach is proposed to transform the planetary push-broom images into frame-like images. First, photogrammetry is applied to push-broom images to extract precise 3D topography, which is then textured using the corresponding textures from the orthoimages. From the textured 3D landscape, frame images are rendered with careful consideration of overlapping and lighting conditions to better support 3D reconstruction tasks. For surface reconstruction, the 2D Gaussian splatting method (Chen., Li., et al., 2024) is selected and implemented in a coarse-to-fine manner, incorporating a smoothness loss to ensure its suitability for textureless planetary surfaces. In addition to utilizing information from the images, the algorithm also takes into account the camera geometry derived from the previous two steps for improved 3D surface reconstruction.

Experiment analysis is conducted using HiRISE images covering the Jezero crater on Mars. The photogrammetric DEM is generated at a resolution of 1 meter per pixel, and the original images are rectified and mosaicked at their native resolution of 0.25 meters per pixel. A total of 421 frame images are rendered, ensuring high overlapping (e.g., one point appears in eight rendered images) coverages. Compared to the photogrammetric DEM, the DEM generated by 3D Gaussian splatting reveals more subtle topographic details and maintains geometric accuracy.

 

Reference

Chen, D., Li, H., Ye, W., Wang, Y., et al., 2024. PGSR: Planar-based Gaussian Splatting for Efficient and High-Fidelity Surface Reconstruction. arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.06521.

Chen, H., Hu, X., Willner, K., Ye, Z., et al., 2024. Neural implicit shape modeling for small planetary bodies from multi-view images using a mask-based classification sampling strategy. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 212, pp. 122-145.

Liu, W.C., Wu, B., 2023. Atmosphere-aware photoclinometry for pixel-wise 3D topographic mapping of Mars. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 204, pp. 237-256.

Gwinner, K., Jaumann, R., Hauber, E., Hoffmann, et al., 2016. The High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) of Mars Express and its approach to science analysis and mapping for Mars and its satellites. Planetary and Space Science 126, pp. 93-138.

How to cite: Li, Z., Wu, B., and Chen, S.: 3D Gaussian Splatting for Detailed Reconstruction of Planetary Surfaces from Orbiter Images, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2216, 2025.

EGU25-3321 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

High-resolution Topographic Modeling for the Lunar South Pole Region Using NAC and ShadowCam Images 

Hao Chen, Philipp Gläser, Konrad Willner, Qian Huang, Xiaohuan Xie, and Jürgen Oberst

Illumination conditions in the lunar polar areas are highly complex. Owing to low sun elevation angles and the lack of seasons in these areas, combined with rugged topography, this may lead to Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs) in craters and topographic depressions, where low temperatures allow ice to accumulate [1]. In contrast, Long-term Illuminated Areas (LIAs) on high-standing ridges and crater rims enable almost uninterrupted illumination and solar power supply [2]. High-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) are crucial for modelling these illumination conditions and for general support of future polar exploration missions [3]. We choose to derive those models from images captured by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) for LIAs and by ShadowCam for PSRs [4], [5]. Here, we use our deep learning method developed previously to derive south pole DTMs, which can achieve a similar or even better effective resolution to those produced by the SFS method [6], stereo photogrammetry, or laser altimetry. We selected Shackleton Crater (a typical PSR) and Malapert Massif (a candidate landing site for the Artemis Program) as experimental areas to derive DTMs with resolutions of 2 meters and 1 meter, respectively. Finally, we used the DTMs to perform refined illuminated modeling and analysis to support future lunar south pole exploration missions.

 

References:

[1] Brown, H.M., et al. (2022) Resource potential of lunar permanently shadowed regions. Icarus, 377, p.114874.

[2] Gläser, P., et al. (2018) Illumination conditions at the lunar poles: Implications for future exploration. Planetary and Space Science, 162, pp.170-178.

[3] Chen, H., et al. (2022) CNN-based large area pixel-resolution topography retrieval from single-view LROC NAC images constrained with SLDEM. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 15, pp.9398-9416.

[4] Robinson, M.S., et al. (2010) Lunar reconnaissance orbiter camera (LROC) instrument overview. Space Science Reviews, 150, pp.81-124.

[5] Robinson, M.S., et al. (2023) ShadowCam instrument and investigation overview. Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences, 40(4), pp.149-171.

[6] Chen, H., et al. (2024) ELunarDTMNet: Efficient reconstruction of high-resolution lunar DTM from single-view orbiter images. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 62, pp. 1-20.

How to cite: Chen, H., Gläser, P., Willner, K., Huang, Q., Xie, X., and Oberst, J.: High-resolution Topographic Modeling for the Lunar South Pole Region Using NAC and ShadowCam Images, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3321, 2025.

EGU25-5037 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Mercury's annual and long-term librations from self-registration of MLA profiles  

Haifeng Xiao, Alexander Stark, Stefano Bertone, Attilio Rivoldini, Rose-Marie Baland, Marie Yseboodt, Oliver Stenzel, Arthur Briaud, Hauke Hussmann, Luisa Lara, and Pedro Gutiérrez

Mercury's annual longitudinal libration (88 days) and its mean rotation rate have been  determined based on independent observations from the ground-based radar (Margot et al., 2012), camera and/or laser altimetry (Stark et al., 2015; Bertone et al., 2021), and radio science (Mazarico et al., 2014; Genova et al., 2019; Konopliv et al., 2020). Although consistent, the precision of the libration measurements precludes identification of a large solid inner core (Van Hoolst et al., 2012). At the same time, the measured rotation rates are largely inconsistent. Deviation from the resonant rotation rate is caused by the planet-induced long-term librations which can be amplified if their periods are close to that of a free libration mode (Yseboodt et al., 2013).

We devise an alternative and innovative approach aimed at precisely tracking how the rotation angle varies with time so that various libration terms can be analyzed quantitatively. The approach involves two self-registration processes of the MESSENGER Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) profiles (Xiao et al., 2024). We focus on a small polar region from 81°N to 84°N. In the first step, we carry out the self-registration by shifting the individual profiles laterally and radially to get rid of the slow-varying orbit, pointing, and timing errors, which can be treated as near-constant. In contrast to the aforementioned near-constant shifts, offsets in the rotation angles can lead to non-linear rotation-like distortions of the profiles. Offsets in the orientation angles of the spin axis can shift the profiles as a whole, ensuring that our approach is insensitive to the a priori orientation state. Then in the second step, we update the inertial coordinates of the profiles and perform the second self-registration in which adjustments are made to the rotation angles at the acquisition times of each of the profiles. However, as the periapsis of the spacecraft has drifted throughout the mission, the ground track does not exactly cross the North Pole and an offset in the rotation angle can also shift the centroid of the profile. In the light of this, the above two-step process needs to be iterated till convergence. Finally, we obtain the updated rotation angle per profile uncontaminated by external error sources.

We have experimented with various a priori rotation and orientation values, i.e., Stark2015, IAU2015 (Archinal et al., 2018), Genova2019, and Bertone2021. An example of the obtained variation of the rotation with time is shown in Figure 1. The long-term libration most likely to be amplified and captured is that with a period of around 6 years, induced by Venus (5.66 y), or by Jupiter (5.93 y), or by the Earth (6.57 y). The superposition of multiple long-period terms is also possible. We will carry out close-loop simulations to assess uncertainty and consider interior and libration modelings to interpret the scientific implications.

Figure 1: Rotation variation with time using the IAU2015 model as a priori values. Correction is with respect to Mercury’s resonant rotation.

References:

Archinal et al., 2018. Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron.. Bertone et al., 2021. JGR. Mazarico et al., 2014. JGR. Genova et al., 2019. GRL. Konopliv et al., 2020. Icarus.  Margot et al., 2012. JGR.  Stark et al., 2015. GRL.  Van Hoolst et al., 2012. EPSL. Xiao et al., 2024. Authorea Preprints. Yseboodt et al., 2013. Icarus.

How to cite: Xiao, H., Stark, A., Bertone, S., Rivoldini, A., Baland, R.-M., Yseboodt, M., Stenzel, O., Briaud, A., Hussmann, H., Lara, L., and Gutiérrez, P.: Mercury's annual and long-term librations from self-registration of MLA profiles , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5037, 2025.

EGU25-6291 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Quantifying the size of impact basins through analysis of gravity and crustal thickness data 

Salvatore Buoninfante, Mark A. Wieczorek, Valentina Galluzzi, Luigi Ferranti, Maurizio Milano, Maurizio Fedi, and Pasquale Palumbo

The surface and crustal structure of the terrestrial planets in the inner solar system have been influenced by large and energetic impact events. GRAIL data showed that the size of the central gravitational anomaly of lunar basins corresponds closely to the diameter of the inner peak-ring [1].

We present an improved technique based on the analysis of gravity and crustal thickness data to estimate the inner ring and rim crest diameters. This technique expands upon the work of [1] and allows us to better identify highly degraded basins. From this analysis, we also quantify how lower resolution gravity and crustal thickness datasets (such as for Mars and Mercury) might bias the peak ring and main rim diameter estimates.

In our approach, we first quantify the regional value of the Bouguer gravity anomaly and crustal thickness, which is defined as the average value obtained from azimuthally averaged profiles in the radius range 1.5 D to 2 D, where D is the crater diameter. The diameter of the Bouguer gravity high, as well as the diameter of the crustal thickness anomaly, were then estimated as the radius where the profiles first intersect the background regional values. After the initial estimate of D was obtained, the procedure was iterated until there was no change in the obtained diameters.

We tested this method using Bouguer gravity data for certain lunar peak-ring and multi-ring basins, by considering the spherical harmonic degree range from 6 to 540. We then filtered the data using the spherical harmonic degree range 6-49 in order to simulate the lower resolution of the Mars gravity models (e.g., [2]). We then used the same approach using crustal thickness maps derived after GRAIL [3], both for the degree ranges 6-310 and 6-46, to simulate the loss of spatial resolution of Mars [4]. Uncertainty estimates were obtained for the crustal thickness and the Bouguer anomaly diameter by considering the ±1σ values for the background values in the spatial range of 1.5 D to 2 D.

Our method properly detects peak-ring or inner ring sizes for lunar basins with main rim diameter greater than 250 km. Nevertheless, when considering filtered versions of these datasets that correspond to the effective spatial resolution of the Mars gravity models, only basins with rim crest diameters greater than about 450 km can be detected with acceptable accuracy. Finally, results from these analyses will allow us to better constrain the impact rate during the early solar system.

 

​​​​​​

References:

[1] Neumann G. A., et al. (2015). Sci. Adv.

[2] Genova A., et al. (2016). Icarus.

[3] Wieczorek M. A., et al. (2013). Science.

[4] Wieczorek M. A., et al. (2022). JGR: Planets.

 

Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Italian Space Agency (ASI) under ASI-INAF agreement 2024-18-HH.0.

 

How to cite: Buoninfante, S., Wieczorek, M. A., Galluzzi, V., Ferranti, L., Milano, M., Fedi, M., and Palumbo, P.: Quantifying the size of impact basins through analysis of gravity and crustal thickness data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6291, 2025.

EGU25-6513 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

Magnetic signature of La Corona lava tube (Lanzarote, Canary Islands) as a planetary analog 

Juan Martin de Blas, Yasmina M. Martos, Jared Espley, Jacob Richardson, Dave Sheppard, and John Connerney

The island of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) is widely recognized as a terrestrial analog for planetary science due to its geological and environmental characteristics. This island hosts numerous lava tubes, including the 7.6-km-long La Corona tube, one of Earth’s largest. Detecting lava tubes and other subsurface cavities is crucial for planetary exploration, as they may be used as safe shelters in future planetary missions. 


Magnetic data, including scalar and vector magnetometer data as well as magnetic susceptibility measurements, were collected during the NASA Goddard GeoLife expedition in May 2023 to study three lava tubes of different morphometry, age, and geological features: La Corona, Los Naturalistas, and Tahiche. This study focuses on analyzing vector magnetometer measurements over La Corona tube. We rotate and process the vector magnetic measurements to derive magnetic anomalies of both the total magnetic field and the individual vector components. To identify, delineate, and characterize the lava tube, we apply various enhancement techniques such as calculating the reduction to the pole or the lateral derivatives.


Our findings reveal the feasibility of using vector magnetometer data to detect lava tubes. Additionally, we show that our magnetic anomaly values derived from vector magnetometer data are comparable to those obtained from scalar magnetometer data. Lastly, we illustrate that we can extract valuable information from each of the vector magnetic field components and use them together with the total field values to identify and interpret magnetic subsurface features.

How to cite: Martin de Blas, J., Martos, Y. M., Espley, J., Richardson, J., Sheppard, D., and Connerney, J.: Magnetic signature of La Corona lava tube (Lanzarote, Canary Islands) as a planetary analog, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6513, 2025.

EGU25-8720 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Planetary Interior Modeling Using Synthetic Gravity Simulator 

Edoardo Santero Mormile and Giuseppe Mitri

Gravity inversion techniques enable the characterisation of the internal mass distribution of planetary bodies by combining data from their shape, gravity, and rotation. However, the inherent ambiguity in scalar gravity signals, specifically, between mass and depth, poses a significant challenge for inferring internal structure. In this work, we introduce a novel approach leveraging the spherical harmonics framework described in [1], in particular, the gravitational harmonics coefficients [Cnm, Snm]. Starting with a simplified interior structure (assuming homogeneous layers), interior model parameters are the number of layers, average layer thickness, average layer density, and the topography of layer interfaces (if present). Regarding the latter, in cases where Bouguer anomalies are available, the mantle-crust interface topography can be inferred using a filtering approach, as proposed in [2]. Notably, this method does not rely on assumptions of isostatic compensation but requires careful selection of the filtering parameters. From these parameters. the spherical harmonics coefficients for each layer and the global ones are computed (see [1]). From these coefficients, key quantities such as gravitational potential, Free-Air anomalies, and Bouguer anomaly maps are evaluated and then compared to space measurements, measuring the model performance by different metrics (e.g. RMSE, structural similarity index, Pearson correlation coefficient). By varying model parameters randomly within physically constrained ranges (e.g. by mass conservation, moment of inertia and observed shape), this process is repeated iteratively. The parameter combination minimizing the performance metrics between modelled and observed data represents the best-fit internal structure. This approach is robust and flexible at the same time, being able to accommodate diverse celestial bodies with a wide variety of planetary shapes, internal configurations, and gravitational data sets and to objectively identify the optimal parameter configuration. This method is benchmarked on Mercury [3], resulting in a mantle-crust interface at ~28 km depth and a mantle density of 3210 [kg/m3], consistent with existing literature (see [4]). Furthermore, this procedure can be used to compute the expected gravity signal from unknown bodies targeted by the upcoming missions and instruments (e.g. Ganymede for JUICE), test different theoric interior models, and obtain their gravitational response.

Acknowledgements: ESM and GM acknowledge support from the Italian Space Agency (2022-16-HH.1-2024). This paper and related research have been conducted during and with the support of the Italian national inter-university PhD programme in Space Science and Technology.

References: [1] M. A. Wieczorek, ‘Gravity and Topography of the Terrestrial Planets’, in Treatise on Geophysics, Elsevier, 2015, pp. 153–193. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-444-53802-4.00169-X.[2] M. A. Wieczorek and R. J. Phillips, ‘Potential anomalies on a sphere: Applications to the thickness of the lunar crust’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, vol. 103, no. E1, pp. 1715–1724, 1998, doi: 10.1029/97JE03136.[3] A. Genova et al., Regional variations of Mercury’s crustal density and porosity from MESSENGER gravity data, Icarus, vol. 391, p. 115332, Feb. 2023.[4] S. Buoninfante, M. Milano, B. Negri et al. ‘Gravity evidence for a heterogeneous crust of Mercury’. Sci Rep 13, 19854 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46081-4

How to cite: Santero Mormile, E. and Mitri, G.: Planetary Interior Modeling Using Synthetic Gravity Simulator, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8720, 2025.

EGU25-8998 | Orals | PS7.5

Benchmarking dynamic topography across geodynamical codes 

Cedric Thieulot, Olga Ortega-Gelabert, Bart Root, and Clinton Conrad

During the ESA funded 4D Dynamic Earth project, different sensitivity studies are performed to understand the applicability of current ground and satellite datasets available to study the dynamical behavior of the solid Earth, in particular the complete mantle. This project is a joint effort between ESA and many European universities and is lead by Delft University of Technology (https://4ddynamicearth.tudelft.nl/). 

The project consists of ten work packages, many of them relying on some form of forward geodynamical modelling. Given the diversity of participants multiple codes are used in the project: a 2D axisymmetric Python code developed by C.T. at the Utrecht University, a 3D Matlab code developed by O.O-G. and the 3D massively parallel C++ community code ASPECT.

One recurring quantity that is of paramount importance for some work packages is dynamic topography, i.e. the outer surface expression to dynamic mantle flow. We have therefore designed a simple isothermal experiment of an anomalous sphere present in the mantle of a planet (the core is ignored as is customary in whole-Earth geodynamic modelling). The sphere itself can be positively or negatively buoyant, and the mantle can be isoviscous or characterized by a radial viscosity profile. Boundary conditions at the core-mantle boundary and at the surface are either no-slip or free-slip. 

Dynamic topography calculations involve the radial stress which is derived from the primitive variables velocity (actually, its gradient) and pressure which are found to be sensitive to mesh size in both radial and lateral directions. We therefore report on the root mean square velocity, the surface strain rate, stress and dynamic topography and the gravity anomaly for a range of experiments. Our objective is two-fold: characterize the accuracy of our codes and provide the community with a benchmark. 

All three codes are Finite Element codes and all rely on the Taylor-Hood element but they are also quite different with respect to meshing and solver architecture. Nevertheless we find that all measured quantities converge within approx. 1% for radial resolutions of at least 30km.

How to cite: Thieulot, C., Ortega-Gelabert, O., Root, B., and Conrad, C.: Benchmarking dynamic topography across geodynamical codes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8998, 2025.

EGU25-10169 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Quantifying Mercury's tidal response: A framework for understanding planetary interiors 

Arthur Briaud, Alexander Stark, Hauke Hussmann, Haifeng Xiao, and Jürgen Oberst

Mercury's unique orbital dynamics, influenced by its proximity to the Sun and high eccentricity, lead to periodic variations in tidal forces and surface temperature patterns. The tidal Love numbers (TLNs), which characterize the planet's deformation and gravitational field changes, are highly sensitive to key internal parameters such as core size, mantle composition and rheology, and the presence of lateral and vertical heterogeneities e.g., [1-5]. Mercury's TLNs thus provide a quantitative framework for understanding how its internal structure responds to tidal forces. In this study, we systematically investigate how variations in these internal parameters affect Mercury's TLNs. We use numerical models to simulate the tidal response of the planet, taking into account a wide range of geophysical and thermodynamic conditions. In particular, we investigate the effects of core-mantle interactions, variations in mantle viscosity and temperature, and potential anisotropies within the lithosphere. Our results show that TLNs are particularly influenced by the size and state of the core, the thermal gradient across the mantle, and the degree of lateral heterogeneity within the inner layers. To validate and refine our models, we will integrate these results with observational constraints such as Mercury's mean density, moment of inertia, and surface deformation data e.g., [1, 6]. This study will provide important insights for interpreting future high-precision measurements from the BepiColombo mission [7]. By linking TLNs to Mercury's internal parameters, we aim to develop a robust framework for constraining the planet's internal structure, providing a deeper understanding of its geodynamic evolution and its significance in the broader context of the formation and evolution of terrestrial planets.

References:

[1] Goossens et al., 2022. The Planetary Science Journal, 3(6), 145.

[2] Mazarico et al., 2014. Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 119(12), 2417-2436.

[3] Mosegaard and Tarantla, 1995. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 100(B7), 12431-12447.

[4] Steinbrügge et al., 2018. Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 123(10), 2760-2772.

[5] Rivoldini et al., 2009. Icarus, 201(1), 12-30.

[6] Genova et al., (2019), Geophysical Research Letters, 46(7), 3625-3633.

[7] Hussmann and Stark, (2020), The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 229, 1379-1389.

How to cite: Briaud, A., Stark, A., Hussmann, H., Xiao, H., and Oberst, J.: Quantifying Mercury's tidal response: A framework for understanding planetary interiors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10169, 2025.

EGU25-10842 | Orals | PS7.5

Geophysical investigation of the terrestrial analogue, Caldereta volcano, in Lanzarote, the Canary Islands as a precursory study to mars phreatomagmatic volcanoes 

Marina Díaz-Michelena, Emma Losantos, Miguel Ángel Rivero, Joana S. Oliveira, Óscar García Monasterio1, Federico Mansilla, Ángel Melguizo, José Luis García Bueno, David Salamanca, and Sergio Fernández Romero

Hydromagmatic eruptions are of particular importance for the search of extraterrestrial life since they require the presence of water. Phreatomagmatic volcanoes on Mars shall resemble those of the Earth and thus, terrestrial analogues of Mars, such as Lanzarote in the Canary Islands, are a good reference for further studies of the Martian volcanoes.

In this study we present our drone-based magnetic survey results combined with a morphometric analysis of Caldereta horse-shoe shaped volcano in Lanzarote, catalogued as a phreatomagmatic tuff for its similarity and proximity to Caldera Blanca, a well-known hydromagmatic edifice (Barrera Morate et al., 2011; Carracedo and Day, 2002; Romero et al., 2007; Kervyn et al., 2012; Brož and Hauber, 2013). On Mars, the chosen edifice is C27 volcano, a horse-shoe shaped cone in the Nephentes/Amenthes region, whose pitted cones were suggested to be of phreatomagmatic origin by Brož and Hauber (2013).

Our morphometric analyses allowed us to classify both Caldereta and C27 edifices as tuff rings, specifically maars. With the drone-based survey performed in Caldereta we demonstrate how more insights could be gained from Martian volcanos when combining magnetic surveys using helicopters on Mars (Mittelholz et al., 2023) with morphometric analyses using satellite data and high-resolution near surface geophysical studies.

 

Keywords

Magnetometry, Mars, planetary magnetism, crustal magnetism, Mars hydromagmatism, planetary science, space magnetometers.

 

References:

Barrera Morate J.L., García Moral R., 2011. Mapa geológico de Canarias. GRAFCAN.  https://www.idecanarias.es/resources/GEOLOGICO/LZ_LITO_unidades_geologicas.pdf

Brož, P., Hauber, E., 2013. Hydrovolcanic tuff rings and cones as indicators for phreatomagmatic explosive eruptions on Mars. J. of Geophys. Res.: Planets 118, 1656–1675. doi: 10.1002/jgre.20120.

Carracedo, J.C., Day, S., 2002. Canary Islands, in: Classic Geology in Europe Series 4. Terra Publishing, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, p. 294.

Kervyn, M., Ernst, G.G.J., Carracedo, J.C., Jacobs, P., 2012. Geomorphometric variability of “monogenetic” volcanic cones: Evidence from Mauna Kea, Lanzarote and experimental cones. J. Geomorphol. 136, 59-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.04.009

Mittelholz, A., Heagy, L., Johnson, C. L., Fraeman, A. A., Langlais, B., Lillis, R. J., and Rapin, W.: Helicopter Magnetic Field Surveys for Future Mars Missions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11186, 2023.Romero, C., Dóniz, J., García Cacho, L., Guillén, C., Coello, E., 2007. Nuevas evidencias acerca del origen hidromagmático del conjunto volcánico Caldera Blanca/Risco Quebrado (Lanzarote, Islas Canarias). Resúmenes XII Reunión Nacional de Cuaternario, Ávila.

How to cite: Díaz-Michelena, M., Losantos, E., Rivero, M. Á., Oliveira, J. S., García Monasterio1, Ó., Mansilla, F., Melguizo, Á., García Bueno, J. L., Salamanca, D., and Fernández Romero, S.: Geophysical investigation of the terrestrial analogue, Caldereta volcano, in Lanzarote, the Canary Islands as a precursory study to mars phreatomagmatic volcanoes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10842, 2025.

EGU25-11941 | Posters on site | PS7.5

How tidal tomography and thermal constraints can probe the existence of a Martian basal molten layer 

Clément Ganino, Alex Guinard, Agnès Fienga, and Anthony Mémin

By computing the tidal deformations of Mars, we investigated its spherically symmetric internal structure, and specifically the nature (liquid, partially melted or both) of the interface between the mantle and the liquid core. Through an evaluation of their compatibility with diverse geophysical observations, we demonstrated that, despite the short excitation periods, tidal deformation (tidal dissipation induced by Phobos and tidal quality factor at the Phobos excitation frequency) provides an effective means to constrain Mars's internal structure. Our analysis yielded independently density and thickness estimates for the Martian lithosphere, mantle, core–mantle boundary layers, and core, which were consistent with previous results from other methods. Additionally, we derived new viscosity estimates for these layers. Notably, we showed that geodetic observations, combined with thermal constraints, are particularly sensitive to the presence of a two-layered interface at the top of the liquid core in the deep Martian mantle. This interface comprises two layers with similar densities but very different viscosities and rheologies. The layer directly atop the liquid core follows a Newtonian constitutive equation (Newtonian Basal Layer or NBL), while the overlying layer at the base of the mantle has an Andrade rheology (Andrade Basal Layer or ABL), characterized by a viscosity approximately 10 orders of magnitude greater than that of the Newtonian layer. Our results indicate that the presence of this two-layered interface significantly affects the viscosity profiles of both the mantle and lithosphere. Specifically, models incorporating the two-layered interface show small viscosity contrast between the mantle and the lithosphere, preventing mechanical decoupling between these layers. This would support a stagnant lid regime, consistent with the current absence of Earth-like plate tectonics on Mars. Finally, our findings suggest that the presence of a liquid Newtonian layer atop the liquid core is incompatible with the existence of a solid inner core on Mars.

How to cite: Ganino, C., Guinard, A., Fienga, A., and Mémin, A.: How tidal tomography and thermal constraints can probe the existence of a Martian basal molten layer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11941, 2025.

EGU25-12405 | Posters on site | PS7.5

VERITAS Gravity Science Experiment: Impact of Colored Noise on Parameter Estimation 

Fabrizio De Marchi, Flavia Giuliani, Daniele Durante, Gael Cascioli, Luciano Iess, Erwan Mazarico, and Suzanne Smrekar

The VERITAS (Venus Emissivity, Radio Science, InSAR, Topography, and Spectroscopy) mission is a future NASA Discovery mission that aims to improve our understanding of Venus' evolution, structure, and geological processes. Its gravity science experiment will produce a uniform, high-resolution gravity map of Venus, providing unprecedented constraints on the planet’s crustal and interior structure. The radio tracking relies on a dual-frequency transponder in X and Ka bands. This advanced multi-frequency system achieves Doppler measurement accuracy of about 18 μm/s (for most of the mission duration) at 10-second integration time and can correct 75% of the plasma noise, particularly important at low Sun-Probe-Earth (SPE) angles (<15-20°).

Numerical simulations of the VERITAS gravity experiment were carried out using JPL’s MONTE software, considering detailed dynamical and noise models. The noise model accounts for 1) media propagation effects, i.e., troposphere, ionosphere, and plasma, where troposphere has a seasonal variation and plasma noise depends on SPE angle, and 2) spacecraft and ground station instrumentation. While many noise sources have a white noise spectral profile, significant contributors such as the frequency and timing system (FTS) and plasma introduce colored noise, i.e., whose magnitude varies with frequency.

A colored-noise results in a non-diagonal correlation matrix which can bias (with respect to a white-noise case) the best-fit estimated parameters and lead to an underestimation of their uncertainties.

Therefore, the main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of colored noise on the estimation of the parameters related to the Venus’ gravity field (i.e., the spherical harmonic coefficients).

To this aim, we simulated the Doppler observables and the gravity recovery for both the white-noise and colored-noise cases. Colored noise was simulated with the algorithm described by [1] and we developed a method to incorporate these correlations into the sequential filtering process used for orbit determination. We will present the results of these simulations.

[1] Timmer, J. and Koenig, M. (1995). On generating power law noise. Astronomy and Astrophysics, 300:707.

How to cite: De Marchi, F., Giuliani, F., Durante, D., Cascioli, G., Iess, L., Mazarico, E., and Smrekar, S.: VERITAS Gravity Science Experiment: Impact of Colored Noise on Parameter Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12405, 2025.

EGU25-12535 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF YOLOv8 AND YOLOv11 FOR COLD SPOT DETECTION ON THE LUNAR SURFACE 

Shachaf Weil Zattelman and Fadi Kizel

Lunar cold spots are thermal anomalies associated with fresh impact craters and understanding them offers critical insights into the Moon's surface evolution and thermophysical properties. Traditionally, their detection has relied on manual methods, which are labor-intensive and time-consuming. This study evaluates the performance of two advanced deep learning-based object detection models, YOLOv8 and YOLOv11, for automating lunar cold spot detection using Diviner radiometer data. The training dataset was generated from 128-pixel-per-degree (ppd) rock-free nighttime regolith temperature maps covering latitudes up to ±60°. The dataset included 384 lunar images with 652 annotated cold spots for model training. For testing, the 2023 High-Resolution Nighttime Temperature dataset was cropped into 512×512-pixel sub-images (~4×4 degrees) with a 20% overlap to capture edge cold spots. This process generated 4,816 sub-images, ensuring comprehensive coverage and minimizing missed detections.

The experimental design included two strategies: a straightforward train-test split and a more robust 5-fold cross-validation approach. The models were assessed using key performance metrics: precision, recall, F1 score, and mean Average Precision (mAP). YOLOv11 consistently outperformed YOLOv8 across most metrics, achieving a precision of 0.85, recall of 0.78, F1 score of 0.81, and mAP-50 of 0.79 with K-fold cross-validation. Both models demonstrated superior performance in detecting faint thermal anomalies, showcasing their capability to identify subtle features often overlooked by manual methods.

Hyperparameter tuning and robust preprocessing techniques, including overlapping sub-image and data augmentation, contributed significantly to the models' performance. YOLOv11's higher selectivity resulted in fewer false positives and greater reliability, whereas YOLOv8 identified a larger number of cold spots, though with a higher false positive rate. Both models significantly outperformed manual detection methods, demonstrating their ability to expand the catalog of lunar cold spots efficiently and accurately with precision of 78% and 89% for YOLOv8 and Yolov11, respectively. This automated approach identified previously undetected cold spots, providing a more comprehensive understanding of lunar thermal anomalies and their spatial distribution.

These findings highlight the transformative potential of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in planetary science, particularly in automating complex and data-intensive tasks like lunar cold spot detection. The scalability and precision of YOLOv11, combined with YOLOv8's sensitivity to faint anomalies, underscore the value of integrating deep learning techniques into planetary exploration and research.

How to cite: Weil Zattelman, S. and Kizel, F.: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF YOLOv8 AND YOLOv11 FOR COLD SPOT DETECTION ON THE LUNAR SURFACE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12535, 2025.

EGU25-13284 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

Geochemical and Mineralogical Signatures of Alluvial Fans in Iceland and their Implications for Late Stage Aqueous Activity on Mars 

Amanda Rudolph, James Haber, Sharon Wilson, Rossman Irwin, Alexander Morgan, Briony Horgan, Timothy Rose, and Rob Wardell

Extensive physical and chemical evidence from orbiter, lander, and rover data show that surface water was widespread on Mars into the Amazonian. Alluvial fans are geologic landforms on Mars that preserve evidence of this late-stage aqueous activity in the geologic record. The composition and distribution materials in an alluvial fan, either in the catchment (source) and/or the fan (sink), help inform our understanding of the origin and extent of aqueous alteration, either in the source rocks prior to deposition or after, in the fan itself. However, the geochemical and mineralogical properties of martian alluvial fans, and how these properties vary from the catchment to the fan, are not well constrained. 

The work presented here characterizes the geochemistry and mineralogy of two alluvial fans and their associated catchments at sites in Iceland—Fjallabak and near Hoffellsjökull—which serve as close compositional analogs for Mars. These results can help us to understand the aqueous alteration that formed similar deposits on Mars while placing constraints on martian geologic history and paleoclimate.

We utilize a suite of complementary laboratory techniques: Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy with an energy dispersive X-ray detector (SEM/EDS), and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Raman spectroscopy qualitatively maps spectral properties to confirm existing mineral identification and spectra are processed to determine the relative abundance materials; this technique is of particular use to identify amorphous glass. SEM/EDS is used to quantitatively map elemental compositions, and XRD with Rietveld refinement can identify the type and abundance of crystalline minerals. Raman and XRD both have in situ instrument analogs on the surface of Mars: the Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman and Luminescence for Organics and Chemicals (SHERLOC) on the Perseverance rover, and Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instrument on the Curiosity rover, respectively. SEM/EDS techniques are also likely to be applied to samples returned from Mars.

At Fjallabak, source rocks are primarily a combination of hyaloclastite (a product of subglacial volcanism) and rhyolite. At Hoffellsjökull, the rocks are mostly basalt with evidence of minor hydrothermal alteration. Rocks and sediments do not appear to be heavily altered upon deposition into the alluvial fan, although some authigenic alteration may have occurred in the catchment itself.

Preliminary Raman spectral analyses support our initial field interpretations of the rocks and minerals observed at both field sites. To date, we have analyzed hyaloclastite source rocks and confirmed the presence of obsidian and/or albite glass, along with signs of aqueous alteration indicated by Fe-oxides (i.e., goethite) at Fjallabak. We have also identified diopside (Ca-Mg clinopyroxene) and actinolite (a low-grade metamorphic mineral) in inferred hydrothermally altered basalt, along possible Fe-oxide-hydroxides (i.e., lepidocrocite) that indicate aqueous alteration in the Hoffellsjökull fan. Initial results suggest aqueous alteration of materials at both field sites but the distribution of primary versus secondary materials has yet to be constrained. 

Our results will include the laboratory analysis that characterize these Iceland fans that will help determine the extent and distribution of alteration products in alluvial fans at Mars compositional analog sites.

How to cite: Rudolph, A., Haber, J., Wilson, S., Irwin, R., Morgan, A., Horgan, B., Rose, T., and Wardell, R.: Geochemical and Mineralogical Signatures of Alluvial Fans in Iceland and their Implications for Late Stage Aqueous Activity on Mars, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13284, 2025.

EGU25-13316 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

Using Remote Sensing to Understand Icelandic Alluvial Fan Composition as an Analog for a Cold and Wet Ancient Mars 

James Haber, Amanda Rudolph, Rossman Irwin, Alexander Morgan, Briony Horgan, and Sharon Wilson

Fan-shaped deposits, including alluvial fans and deltas, are abundant on Mars. They preserve evidence of episodic running water and potentially habitable environments into the early Amazonian. Most alluvial fan analog studies have focused on depositional processes, rather than the composition of fan materials. In particular, it is unclear if the composition of fan deposits represents alteration during transport/deposition or the composition of the watershed in a cold environment.

In this study, we use a suite of remote sensing techniques to characterize mineralogy of rocks and sediments in alluvial fans in Iceland to understand any distinct trends within this tundra climate. This work helps fill a knowledge gap for understanding alluvial fans on Mars through the novel analog study in a cold climate on Earth. Iceland has been widely studied as a Mars analog because of its dominant basaltic composition, general lack of vegetation, and tundra climate. We analyze several alluvial fans of variable morphology, location, and composition to understand how these factors might affect the alteration of fan sediments.

Prior to fieldwork, we analyzed high-resolution orbital images (15 m/pixel) from the World Imagery ESRI Basemap and spectral data (10-60 m/pixel) from the SENTINEL-2 MultiSpectral Instrument in the visible to near infrared (VNIR) range (13 bands; 0.443-2.190 μm) to characterize decameter-scale compositional variability. 

During our July 2024 field season, we imaged fans and their watersheds using a DJI Mavic Pro 2 drone at the meter- to decameter-scale. We used a portable ASD QualitySpec Trek spectrometer to collect VNIR (0.35-2.5 μm) reflectance spectra and identify minerals along transects from the fan apex to toe to capture compositional variability in the fan deposits and their watersheds.

Our results focus on two alluvial fans and their watersheds: one dominated by rhyolite and hyaloclastite in Fjallabak Nature Reserve in the Icelandic highlands and another dominated by basalt near Hoffellsjökull in eastern Iceland. In VNIR spectra from Fjallbak, we observe absorption bands due to hydration (1.4 and 1.9 μm), Fe-oxides (0.53 and ~0.9 μm), and hydrated silica (2.2 μm). At Hoffellsjökull, we also observe kaolinite (2.2 μm doublet) in tan rocks and calcite (2.338 μm) in veins and vesicles within basalt. We also observe broad absorptions near 1 and 2 μm likely due to primary mafic minerals such as olivine, pyroxene, or volcanic glass.

Our results indicate that rocks in the alluvial fans were sourced from a variety of lithologies, which we are able to identify in the watershed using drone and orbiter images. Overall, we do not observe major differences in composition between the fan deposits and their watersheds, suggesting that there is minimal alteration during transport and deposition. Ongoing work includes detailed spectral analyses of sediments along fan transects and comparisons to the watershed to determine how the rocks and sediments vary across the fan deposit. Additionally, comparisons to similar alluvial fans on Mars will improve our understanding of how these features may have formed in a cold climate.

How to cite: Haber, J., Rudolph, A., Irwin, R., Morgan, A., Horgan, B., and Wilson, S.: Using Remote Sensing to Understand Icelandic Alluvial Fan Composition as an Analog for a Cold and Wet Ancient Mars, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13316, 2025.

EGU25-17694 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Unravelling similarities between Mount Etna's pyroclastic deposits and the Lunar counterparts. 

Giacomo Melchiori, Matteo Massironi, Riccardo Pozzobon, Patrizia Ferretti, and Sonia Calvari

In the last few years, NASA, ESA, CNSA and JAXA have been planning comprehensive lunar initiatives, including the Artemis program. In this context, it is crucial to i) support scientific research aimed at improving our ability to collect direct ground-truth data and samples, and ii) test equipment and validate analytical methodologies at designated analogue sites. Among the sites of interest on the lunar surface are the ones dominated by pyroclastic deposits since, as shown on Apollo samples, they may have trapped considerable volumes of gases3, being their formation linked to the presence of volatiles within magma. This material represent an intriguing in-situ resource1 that has yet to be verified even considering studies on Earth analogues on volcanic environments. Some of them are well internationally-known (e.g., Lanzarote, Canary Islands4; Kilauea Volcano, USA; Lava Beds National Monument, USA)  and have been extensively studied. In other cases, such as Mount Etna, the compositional similarity remains unexplored, despite the site has already attracted interest from the planetary science community2. Mount Etna volcano exhibits several geological similarities with lunar features such as the presence of  lava tubes, cinder cones, lava channels and bowl shaped pits; however, its analogy from a compositional point of view has yet to be determined.

For this reason, several unweathered and unaltered  samples have been collected from a pyroclastic deposit in the area of the Cisternazza pit crater, a collapse pit located on the southern flank of Mount Etna. The samples underwent comprehensive chemical and mineralogical characterization, revealing compositional similarities with lunar samples. Consequently, further tests were conducted to examine their mechanical, thermal, and spectral behaviour to compare it with lunar samples and certified lunar simulants across a broader range of properties.

To assess the analogy with the lunar surface, specific spectral parameters were also calculated for both the Etna samples and key sites on the Moon. In addition, in order to resemble the complex spectral response of the lunar pyroclastic deposits, we generated different mixtures using the spectra of the Etna samples intermixed with different amounts of olivine, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene endmembers spectra. Intriguing correlations between these mixtures and lunar spectral data were observed, even in study areas far from Apollo landing sites, indicating a broader range of similarities with the lunar pyroclastic materials.

Acknowledgement

This study was carried out within the Space It Up project funded by the Italian Space Agency, ASI, and the Ministry of University and Research, MUR, under contract n. 2024-5-E.0 - CUP n. I53D24000060005.

References

1: Anand et al., 2012, A brief review of chemical and mineralogical resources on the Moon and likely initial in situ resource utilization (ISRU) applications. Planet. Space Sci. 74, 42–48.

2: Carey et al., 2022, METERON Analog-1: A Touch Remote. 73rd International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Paris, France, 18–22 September 2022

3: Ivanov, 2014, Volatiles in lunar regolith samples: A survey. Sol. Syst. Res. 48, 113–129.

4: Mateo et al., 2019, Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands Geopark:From Earth to Space. Springer International Publishing.

How to cite: Melchiori, G., Massironi, M., Pozzobon, R., Ferretti, P., and Calvari, S.: Unravelling similarities between Mount Etna's pyroclastic deposits and the Lunar counterparts., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17694, 2025.

EGU25-18054 | ECS | Orals | PS7.5

Modelling surface mineral diversity of atmosphere-free rocky exoplanets for spectroscopic characterisation 

Rob Spaargaren, Antonio Manjon Cabeza Cordoba, Maxim Ballmer, and Tim Lichtenberg

Observations of several short-period rocky exoplanets (e.g., LHS 3844 b, TRAPPIST-1 b, GJ 367 b) suggest that they do no host substantial secondary atmospheres, which makes their surfaces directly accessible to spectral characterisation. Various minerals and rock types have potentially distinguishable surface reflectance spectra, allowing for observational characterisation of surface geology for such atmosphere-less exoplanets. While extensive surface spectra for Solar System lithologies are available, they may not capture the full range of surface diversity, as rocky exoplanets display a bulk compositional diversity far exceeding that seen in the Solar System. To address this gap, we explore potential surface mineralogies of volatile-free rocky exoplanets, with compositional diversity informed by stellar abundances.
 
We model magma compositions formed from bulk mantle melting in the NCFMASCr system with a Gibbs free energy minimization algorithm, Perple_X. Bulk mantle compositions are systematically varied in terms of relative abundances of Mg, Si, Ca, Al, and Na, informed by stellar abundances, while keeping Fe and Cr constant and equal to the Earth bulk mantle. We then use the same modelling set-up to derive crustal mineralogy for bulk crust compositions based on these magmas. 
 
Surface mineralogy primarily varies with the bulk mantle Mg/Si ratio: Si-rich mantles produce quartz- and plagioclase-dominated crusts, intermediate planets produce pyroxene- and plagioclase-dominated crusts, and Mg-rich planets produce crusts consisting of olivine, spinel, and nepheline. Increasing the abundances of Ca, Al, and Na mainly results in a widening of the clinopyroxene, spinel, and nepheline stability fields. The crusts of Mg-rich planets are experimentally under-explored, while we predict a significant fraction of all rocky exoplanets to form such crusts. Thus, additional surface reflectance spectra measurements are required to fully cover the diversity of potential rocky exoplanet surfaces and to enable accurate interpretation of future observations of their surface geology.

We further show with geodynamical simulations that the high-pressure density contrast between crustal and mantle rocks plays a first-order role in thermal and dynamical evolution of rocky exoplanet interiors. Planets with a greater density contrast tend to stabilize a layered mantle structure, where subducted crust accumulates at the bottom of the mantle, overlain by a cold, depleted, and typically ultramafic upper mantle. Calculating the density contrast between crust and mantle rocks for our sample of exoplanet compositions at a pressure of 140 GPa, we find that most Mg-rich planets form crusts that are significantly denser than the residual mantle, forming such a double-layered mantle structure. Meanwhile, the most Si-rich mantles produce granite-like crusts, which we predict to be too buoyant to subduct. Only planets with intermediate Mg/Si, which includes the solar system planets, have crustal buoyancy that allows for subduction and mixing of subducted crust with the mantle on geological timescales. Thus, constraining rocky exoplanet crust mineralogy and density is essential for understanding their long-term evolution and for interpreting spectroscopic observations of such planets, which is possible with JWST.

How to cite: Spaargaren, R., Manjon Cabeza Cordoba, A., Ballmer, M., and Lichtenberg, T.: Modelling surface mineral diversity of atmosphere-free rocky exoplanets for spectroscopic characterisation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18054, 2025.

EGU25-19233 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Photometric-Constrained Reconstruction of Lunar Landing Site Topography Using Orbiter and Descent Images 

Xiaohuan Xie, Shijie Liu, Li Ma, Qian Huang, Hao Chen, Jürgen Oberst, and Xiaohua Tong

In lunar exploration, high-resolution topography is an important basis for safe landing and mission planning. Remote sensing images are the main data sources for the reconstruction of lunar surface topography [1]. Among them, the orbiter images preserve the topographic photometric information under different illumination directions, and the descent images contain high-resolution morphological details of the landing site. In order to integrate the advantages of multi-illumination directions of orbiter images and high resolution of descent images, we propose a joint photometric-constrained method for topography reconstruction using both orbiter and descent images. In the framework of the joint photometric-constrained Shape from Shading (SfS) [2-4], the photometric information in multi-source images illuminated from different directions is added into the cost function as a weighted regular term in topography reconstruction. We focus on the Chang'E-3 landing site. We used the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) images of the area and Chang'E-3 descent images for experiments, and obtained topographic data of the site with a resolution better than 0.1 m/pixel. Comparing with previously derived topography [5], we verified that our topography is more consistent result with the images in multi-angle illumination rendering [6], integrating the photometric information of the multi-source images and preserving the morphological details such as small-size impact craters. The method proposed in this study not only improves the accuracy of topography reconstruction of the Chang'E-3 landing site, but also provides a new idea for the joint processing of multi-source image data.

[1] Di K., et al. (2020) Topographic mapping of the moon in the 21st century: from hectometer to millimeter scales. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XLIII-B3-2020, pp.1117-1124.

[2] Horn, B.K.P. (1990) Height and gradient from shading. International Journal of Computer Vision, 5, pp. 37–75.

[3] Beyer R.A., et al. (2018) The Ames Stereo Pipeline: NASA's Open Source Software for Deriving and Processing Terrain Data. Earth and Space Science, 5, pp. 537-548.

[4] Tenthoff M. et al. (2020) High Resolution Digital Terrain Models of Mercury. Remote Sensing, 12, p. 3989.

[5] Henriksen M.R., et al. (2017) Extracting accurate and precise topography from LROC narrow angle camera stereo observations. Icarus, 283, pp.122-137.

[6] Tong X., et al. (2023) A high-precision horizon-based illumination modeling method for the lunar surface using pyramidal LOLA data. Icarus, 390, p. 115302.

How to cite: Xie, X., Liu, S., Ma, L., Huang, Q., Chen, H., Oberst, J., and Tong, X.: Photometric-Constrained Reconstruction of Lunar Landing Site Topography Using Orbiter and Descent Images, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19233, 2025.

EGU25-19374 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5 | Highlight

Microorganisms under simulated icy moon environments project (micro icy) : a step foward to solar system exploration 

Alessia Cassaro, Claudia Pacelli, Lorenzo Cocola, Angelina Cordone, Marta Del Bianco, Mattia Esposito, Francesca Ferranti, Lorenzo Manfrin, Luca Parca, and Angelo Zinzi

Astrobiological research aims to find evidence of life in the Solar System's habitable environments, prioritizing icy moons with potential subsurface oceans (Lunine, 2017).  Subsurface liquid water is evidenced on Europa, Ganymede, Callisto (Kivelson et al., 2000), and Enceladus (Spencer & Nimmo, 2013). Enceladus, studied via Cassini’s remote sensing, is of particular interest due to its active surface and global subsurface salty ocean (Thomas et al., 2016; Postberg et al., 2009). Jets of icy particles and water vapor observed at its south pole (Porco et al., 2006) suggest a subsurface aquifer with potential for life (Fuller et al., 2016; Porco et al., 2017; Lainey et al., 2018).

To explore habitability, remote sensing relies on understanding life in Earth’s extreme environments, such as hydrothermal systems, where microbial communities thrive under harsh conditions. The Strytan shallow-water hydrothermal vents in Iceland serve as an ideal analogue for icy moons, as they mimic similar geological processes. In this context, the MICRO ICY project aims to study microbial life in these environments to identify potential biosignatures and better understand microbial adaptation to extreme conditions, advancing life-detection missions.

The project will aim to (i) sampling fluid samples from Strytan shallow-water hydrothermal vents in Iceland, (ii) identifying the cultivable microbial portion, (iii) studying the whole microbial communities through metabarcoding identification and its adaptaption mechanisms by applying -omics approaches, (iv) identifying functionality and genomic traits of interest for adaptation and resistance to extreme conditions by metagenomic approach. In addition, gas composition signatures related to the activity of microbes will be investigate, by using mass spectrometry.

 

The MICRO ICY project aims to achieve the following results:

- a proof of concept for using the Strytan shallow-water hydrothermal vents in Iceland as analogues for the subsurface environments of icy moons;

- define the habitats and assess criteria for habitability on icy moons through a complete characterization of geo-microbial context of the Strytan shallow-water hydrothermal vents, including the evaluation of microorganism biodiversity and functionality;

-  identify the adaptation strategies of selected microbes to simulated planetary environments through transcriptomic and proteomic approaches;

- improve our knowledge of the behaviour of terrestrial extremophiles to planetary analogue environments as support for the search for life beyond Earth;

- identify the gas signatures of microbial life in simulated planetary environments with spectrometry analyses;

Here, we reported preliminary results from geochemical analyses of the Strytan shallow-water hydrothermal vent samples, performed by using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Ion Chromatography (IC). Concurrently, ongoing experiments involving both culture-dependent (extremophilic microorganism isolation) and culture-independent (metagenomics) approaches aim to identify the most suitable organisms for exposure in an Enceladus simulation chamber, to assess their ability to grow and survive in extraterrestrial environments.

How to cite: Cassaro, A., Pacelli, C., Cocola, L., Cordone, A., Del Bianco, M., Esposito, M., Ferranti, F., Manfrin, L., Parca, L., and Zinzi, A.: Microorganisms under simulated icy moon environments project (micro icy) : a step foward to solar system exploration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19374, 2025.

EGU25-19657 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

High-resolution Illumination Maps around the Lunar South Pole 

Qian Huang, Shijie Liu, Hao Chen, Philipp Gläser, Fan He, Jürgen Oberst, and Xiaohua Tong

With the Moon’s rotation axis almost perpendicular to the ecliptic, the lunar polar regions are in a unique position. As the Sun hovers near the horizon all year round, and given the rough morphology, this leads to very complex illumination conditions in the area. High-resolution illumination maps derived from accurate lunar terrains serve as essential tools for identifying cold traps and evaluating solar energy ― key factors for upcoming exploration missions [1], [2]. Here, we use our previously developed illumination modeling methodology [3] to produce a series of illumination maps based on Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) gridded topographic models. Benefitting from the methodological optimizations and GPU acceleration techniques, modeling efficiency is no longer a challenge. We produced maps of the average illumination and the distribution of Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs), the resolution and coverage of these maps are consistent with the LOLA terrains, up to a maximum resolution of 5 meters [4]. Another derivative of modeling, the artificially shaded synthetic images corresponding to illumination at any moment, can be compared with “real” image data. We selected Malapert Massif and Shackleton-de Gerlache Ridge (both near the candidate landing sites of the Artemis program) as our experimental areas, and compared our maps with previously published illumination data [1], [2]. The results show that, our higher-resolution illumination maps are visibly more informative and the corresponding synthetic images are more consistent with the illumination patterns seen in “real” images. This work can provide useful suggestions for future lunar south pole explorations and scientific research.

 

[1] Mazarico E., et al. (2011) Illumination conditions of the lunar polar regions using LOLA topography. Icarus, 211, pp.106681.

[2] Gläser, P., et al. (2018) Illumination conditions at the lunar poles: Implications for future exploration. Planetary and Space Science, 162, pp.170-178.

[3] Tong, XH., et al. (2022) A high-precision horizon-based illumination modeling method for the lunar surface using pyramidal LOLA data. Icarus, 390, pp.115302.

[4] Barker et al. (2023) A New View of the Lunar South Pole from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA). The Planetary Science Journal, 4, pp.183.

How to cite: Huang, Q., Liu, S., Chen, H., Gläser, P., He, F., Oberst, J., and Tong, X.: High-resolution Illumination Maps around the Lunar South Pole, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19657, 2025.

EGU25-19966 | Orals | PS7.5

Updates to the TGO-CaSSIS Stereo Products Generation and the INAF public catalog of DTMs 

Adriano Tullo, Cristina Re, Emanuele Simioni, Silvia Bertoli, Riccardo La Grassa, Gabriele Cremonese, and Nicolas Thomas

In orbit since the April 2018, the Colour and Stereo Surface Imaging System (CaSSIS) on board of the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) has recently entered its 6th year of scientific phase. Since then, CaSSIS has provided us with a rich catalog of up to four bands stereo images of the Martian surface. The stereo capability is achieved through an innovative telescope rotation approach composing a convergence angle of almost 22 degrees between the stereo couple. In this way CaSSIS can produce detailed color 3D maps, thus providing crucial data for the analysis of the surfaces and their composition.

The pipeline for three-dimensional modelling is developed and maintained by the INAF team located at the Astronomical Observatory of Padova, making available the Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and orthorectified images to the entire team and scientific community since the start of the mission.

The 3DPD software (Simioni et al., 2021; Re et al., 2022), at the core of the pipeline, allows the exploitation of data according to the principles of stereogrammetry. The DTMs are produced at 13.5 m ground sample distance from 4.5 m/px images, with an estimated vertical accuracy below 3 pixels size (15 m)  (Fig.1).

To date, more than 2100 stereo couples are available on a total of 40.000 images acquired. Of these about 400 stereo pairs have already been processed and available for download at  the OAPD-hosted repository (https://cassis.oapd.inaf.it/archive/).

Since the framework was first founded by Simioni et al., 2021, the pipeline has been continuously developing to improve the performance of the data product generation.

The goal of this work is to present the actual state of the framework and all the improvements made. Recent changes are here described and supported by an assessment of the quality and precision of the generated products and their derivatives.

Recent developments include the integration of the Bundle Block Adjustment, employing the jigsaw routines made available with the USGS ISIS platform (Laura et al., 2023). Thanks to the jigsaw output, we are able to refine the projection matrices affected otherwise by distortions that introduce geometric effects of misalignments between the acquisitions. The misalignments not adequately modelled and resolved by the Bundle Adjustment could otherwise result in steps artefacts that can reach even hundreds of m in the worst cases.

Further important update is given by an innovative approach of aligning DTMs to MOLA-HRSC (Fergason et al., 2018), further improving the surface projection and the absolute elevation, reaching values generally below 50 m/px of standard deviation in comparison with it. This process was also extended to the entire database of DTMs already produced as one major update, bringing similar results (Fig.2).

Fig.1 Comparison between a CaSSIS DTM (MY34_003673_018) and a HiRISE DTM (DTEEC_005533_1975_005388_1975) at 1 m/px, demonstrating a vertical accuracy of about 8m.

 

Fig.2 The standard deviation on the vertical accuracy, achieved as a result of the recent alignment with the MOLA-HRSC and applied to the entire CaSSIS DTMs database.

How to cite: Tullo, A., Re, C., Simioni, E., Bertoli, S., La Grassa, R., Cremonese, G., and Thomas, N.: Updates to the TGO-CaSSIS Stereo Products Generation and the INAF public catalog of DTMs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19966, 2025.

EGU25-20078 | ECS | Posters on site | PS7.5

Categorization of ring and bulge topographies of infilled craters on Mercury 

Gene Schmidt, Salvatore Buoninfante, Valentina Galluzzi, and Pasquale Palumbo

Mercury boasts a variety of infilled craters, several of which contain central depressions surrounded by unique, bulged, ring-like structures. These rings are comprised of the infill itself, range in size and elevation, and can often exceed the crater rim in which they are contained (e.g. Bryne et al., 2014). Although peak ring crater types are common across Mercury (e.g. Baker et al., 2011; Schon et al., 2011), these bulged infill rings represent an entirely different morphology which represents a process that occurs after the crater and potential peak ring is formed. These bulged rings often present concentric extensional faults on their summits, and in some cases the accompanying central depression contains radial or circular extensional faults (e.g. Cunje & Ghent, 2016; Marchi et al., 2011). The formation process of this topography remains unknown and difficult to constrain, however it has been previously suggested that global contraction could aid their formation (Byrne et al., 2014). However, the weight load of the infill itself has yet to be fully appreciated as a candidate for tectonic processes on Mercury, particularly in the creation of bulged topography (Schmidt & Salvini, 2024). Additionally, lava entry pathways (i.e. lava which exploits circular normal faults within the interior of the craters) may play a role. By analyzing nine craters (four exhibiting the bulged infill topography, four exhibiting peak ring topography, and one seemingly intermediate type of topography) we aim to determine the relationship between bulged rings within infill and their more common peak ring topography counterparts. In so doing, we can determine if this infill topography is merely a lava infill which has conformed to a pre-existing peak ring, or if the weight load of the infill at the center of the crater has the potential to create an elastic response which creates the bulged ring and simultaneously the central depression.

We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Italian Space Agency (ASI) under ASI-INAF agreement 2024-18-HH.0

Baker et al. (2011) The transition from complex crater to peak-ring basin on Mercury: New observations from MESSENGER flyby data and constraints on basin formation models. Planetary and Space Science, 59(15), 1932-1948.

Byrne et al. (2014) Mercury’s global contraction much greater than earlier estimates. Nature Geoscience, 7(4), 301-307.

Cunje & Ghent (2016) Caloris basin, Mercury: History of deformation from an analysis of tectonic landforms. Icarus, 268, 131-144.

Marchi et al. (2011) The effects of the target material properties and layering on the crater chronology: The case of Raditladi and Rachmaninoff basins on Mercury. Planetary and Space Science, 59(15), 1968-1980.

Schmidt & Salvini (2024) Thickness of Pluto's Ice Shell from elastic deformation of the Sputnik Planitia forebulge: Response to infill load or vestige of impact event?. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 646, 118974.

Schon et al. (2011) Eminescu impact structure: Insight into the transition from complex crater to peak-ring basin on Mercury. Planetary and Space Science, 59(15), 1949-1959.

How to cite: Schmidt, G., Buoninfante, S., Galluzzi, V., and Palumbo, P.: Categorization of ring and bulge topographies of infilled craters on Mercury, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20078, 2025.

G5 – Geodetic Monitoring of the Atmosphere

The Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) technique has been demonstrated to significantly enhance our understanding of the free atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere. We present improved estimations of global three-dimensional wind fields derived from low-pass filtered monthly mean geopotential height data. Geostrophic, gradient, and equatorial balance winds were estimated to provide foundational wind estimates, consistent with methodologies employed in previous studies. To advance beyond the traditional reliance on geostrophic and gradient wind, higher-order terms in the horizontal momentum equations, specifically advection and curvature, were considered. Newly derived wind fields were systematically evaluated against original winds from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), using a best-estimate algorithm. Building upon this methodology, the application of the best-estimate algorithm revealed that geostrophic winds incorporating advection were most applicable in the troposphere, while gradient winds with advection showed superior estimates in the stratosphere. Thus, the tropopause acts as a physical boundary delineating the domains of applicability for geostrophic and gradient-based wind approximations. Compared to their fundamental formulations, advection significantly improved both geostrophic and gradient wind estimates relative to the original ERA5 winds. In tropical regions, equatorial balance winds considering curvature provided the most accurate estimates across the entire vertical extent. Our findings emphasize the significant potential of GNSS-RO geopotential height data to move beyond the limitations of traditional geostrophic and gradient wind approximations. The results pave the way for creating a comprehensive global three-dimensional wind field climatology by leveraging the unique advantages of GNSS-RO, such as long-term consistency, high vertical resolution, and global coverage. This dataset will be a valuable resource for the scientific community, supporting climate monitoring and enhancing the understanding of atmospheric dynamics, particularly in the stratosphere, where data assimilation in reanalyses remains limited.

How to cite: Unegg, J.: Beyond Geostrophic and Gradient Wind: Enhancing Radio Occultation Wind Field Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-869, 2025.

EGU25-926 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

3-D water vapor field retrieval by GNSS tomography for InSAR observation correctionapplied to deformations of Piton de la Fournaise in Réunion Island 

Hugo Gerville, Joël Van Baelen, Laurent Morel, Fabien Albino, Frédéric Durand, Aline Peltier, and Patrice Boissier

On one hand, current processing of GNSS signals has the ability to provide the amount of
water vapor between the satellite and the ground. This information is of major interest
because these observations have good temporal resolution and are insensitive to weather
conditions. Furthermore, when the station network is dense enough, it is possible to retrieve
the 3-D water vapor field through GNSS tomography.
Although this method has already proven effective, this presentation will first detail new
approaches development to adapt to the Reunion Island context and particularly over the
Piton de la Fournaise. Indeed, this area has a dense distribution of stations while the rest of
the island shows a weaker distribution. Hence, a classic grid mesh is therefore not suited for
this situation and we developed a Voronoï adaptive mesh scheme to better account for the
irregular network geometry. Likewise, the inversion scheme used is being upgraded to a
Single Value Decomposition (SVD) approach shown to be more effective in the literature.
On the other hand, InSAR technique consists of measuring ground deformation by difference
between two radar measurements of satellite/ground distance. However, these two
measurements are not carried out at the same time and, thus, the water vapor field which
impact such observations is different for each measurement, notably in tropical regions
where water vapor variability is very important.
Hence, a second aspect of our work will be to apply the improved 3-D water vapor retrieval
obtained with the new approaches defined above in order to propose a better correction
scheme for InSAR retrieval of slow ground deformation signals at Piton de la Fournaise, a
precursor sign of possible volcanic activity.

How to cite: Gerville, H., Van Baelen, J., Morel, L., Albino, F., Durand, F., Peltier, A., and Boissier, P.: 3-D water vapor field retrieval by GNSS tomography for InSAR observation correctionapplied to deformations of Piton de la Fournaise in Réunion Island, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-926, 2025.

EGU25-965 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Assessment of GNSS-based PWV against radiosonde observation and reanalysis datasets in Antarctica 

Bilal Mutlu and Serdar Erol

Global warming phenomena lead to melting glaciers, rising sea levels, droughts, and irregular seasonal patterns, especially in polar regions. Besides, water vapor plays a significant role in these processes, contributing to about 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. Increasing temperature raises the atmosphere's capacity for water vapor, creating a positive feedback loop that aggravates global warming and extreme weather events. In polar regions, global warming is causing increased annual rainfall. Despite low overall precipitation, this phenomenon accelerates the melting of snow and ice, impacting local ecosystems. Future projections indicate that precipitation along Antarctica's coastline is expected to increase over the next 80 years. This increase may enhance surface melting through various processes. Consequently, monitoring atmospheric water vapor is crucial for understanding global climate dynamics and weather patterns. However, due to the harsh conditions in the polar regions, there is a shortage of conventional measurements, which makes global atmospheric reanalysis models crucial. The specific humidity and air pressure from the reanalysis models can be used to calculate Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) (measured in meters), which is one of the most commonly used parameters for measuring atmospheric water vapor. Nevertheless, biases and discrepancies in the models may influence the data, particularly in polar regions where observations are scarce. In addition, the estimation of meteorological parameters can be acquired not only based on meteorological station data but also with the help of geodetic satellite data. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals are subject to tropospheric refraction as they pass through the Earth's atmosphere, and the resulting zenith delays are divided into two components: hydrostatic (ZHD) and wet delay (ZWD). Moreover, the ZWD can be utilized to compute the PWV by multiplying a conversion factor. PWV can also be obtained by using air temperature and dew point temperature data from radiosonde observations at specific pressure levels. In this study, it is aimed to investigate and compare PWV values produced from GNSS-based, radiosonde-based, and global meteorological reanalysis models. Within the scope of the study, International GNSS Service (IGS) stations, which are located in the Antarctica continent, were used to calculate GNSS-based PWV. Besides, the radiosonde dataset retrieved from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive version 2.2 (IGRA 2.2) was used to obtain radiosonde-based PWV. As reanalysis datasets, the most recent reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) were used. The fifth-generation reanalysis product from the ECMWF called ERA-5 and the second-generation version of NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications called MERRA-2 data were used to obtain reanalysis based PWV. As a result of the study, root mean square errors (RMSE) and correlation values of GNSS-based PWV compared to radiosonde-based and reanalysis-based PWV were investigated for each IGS station. Besides, it was evaluated whether the GNSS technique could be used as an alternative to other methods in studies related to the troposphere and meteorology in the Antarctic continent.

How to cite: Mutlu, B. and Erol, S.: Assessment of GNSS-based PWV against radiosonde observation and reanalysis datasets in Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-965, 2025.

A three-dimensional water vapor density field has advantages in monitoring atmospheric water vapor, especially for reflecting the vertical motion. The existing multi-source tomography models are around a fusion of single-source remote-sensing signal and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. However, different remote-sensing data have advantages and disadvantages regarding spatiotemporal resolution and accuracy. When only single-source remote-sensing data is integrated for tomography, the model's available scenarios are severely limited by weather conditions. Therefore, we construct a tomography model by fusing multi-band spaceborne remote-sensing data and high-precision ground GNSS data, the former includes near-infrared MODIS image, long-wave infrared FengYun-4A image, and morphed integrated microwave image MIMIC. The equations system of the tomographic model is solved based on different strategies of weight determination using the weighted least square algorithm. In addition, to consider the dynamic variations of tropopause height in the research area, the tropopause detection products of Fengyun-4B with high spatial coverage are used to determine the boundary of the tomographic region, and the constraints of model is built by historical GNSS occultation observations. To verify our method, the proposed model is validated by water vapor density from reanalysis and radiosonde data, respectively. The results show that the reasonable prior weights are essential when using multi-source data to perform tightly coupled tomography, the RMSEs of water vapor density are less than 2 g/m3 in most epochs. Compared to the tomographic model based on only GNSS data, the accuracy improvement of the tomographic model fusing multi-band remote sensing data is higher than that of any tomographic model using single-source remote-sensing data. Also, the proposed tomography model can better compensate for the shortcomings of poor time continuity of integrated individual remote-sensing data to expand the application scenarios of the fusion tomographic model.

Acknowledgments: This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (42192534 and 42388102).

How to cite: Xu, T. and Li, S.: Atmospheric Water Vapor Tomography based on GNSS and Multi-band Remote Sensing Measurements Combination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2480, 2025.

EGU25-5428 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

Extraction and Application of Subcarrier Phase Measurements in GNSS-R Altimetry 

Yunqiao He, Fan Gao, Xinyue Meng, and Tianhe Xu

Subcarrier modulated signals, such as BDS-3 B2 and Galileo E5, are widely used to improve the spectral compatibility and ranging accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). However, designing signal processing and observation extraction techniques for subcarrier modulated signals is still challenging for the navigation community. In GNSS-R application, GNSS-R phase altimetry is proposed to provide sea surface height information as an economical and accurate technology to solve the resolution problem. However, phase unwrapping and phase integer ambiguity pose significant challenges for the application of GNSS-R phase altimetry. To overcome these obstacles, the utilization of subcarrier modulated signals is noticed for the first time, presenting a novel opportunity for GNSS-R phase altimetry due to the substantial subcarrier wavelength of 19.5 meters. In the work, we developed a subcarrier modulated signal processing strategy that can track both the upper and lower band signals. By combining the two signals, we construct virtual signals whose phase matches the subcarrier phase. These virtual signals undergo processing using long-time coherent integration and sliding filtering to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio and minimize errors. Subsequently, subcarrier phase measurements are extracted from these virtual signals. To validate the effectiveness, subcarrier phase measurements are applied to a GNSS-R altimetry station and drone platform. When compared with accurate in-situ SSH results, it is evident that the phase is much easier to unwrap and the phase integer ambiguity is easier to fix. Furthermore, the accuracy can achieve centimeter-level precision.

How to cite: He, Y., Gao, F., Meng, X., and Xu, T.: Extraction and Application of Subcarrier Phase Measurements in GNSS-R Altimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5428, 2025.

Chile's diverse climate spans a remarkable range, from the hyper-arid desert in the north to a Mediterranean climate in the center, temperate humid conditions in the south, and polar tundra in Patagonia. This climatic gradient provides a unique opportunity to study the synchronized variability of tropospheric water vapor (TWV) and precipitation processes. In recent years, GNSS has emerged as a powerful satellite-based tool capable of capturing not only tectonic deformation but also meteorological processes. One of the key parameters derived from GNSS processing is Zenith Total Delay (ZTD), which represents the delay in GNSS signal propagation caused by the troposphere. ZTD is composed of the hydrostatic and wet delays, with the wet delay closely linked to TWV, making it an essential metric for studying atmospheric water vapor dynamics. We use GNSS ZTD observations, spanning between 15 and 28 years, to analyze the intra-seasonal and interannual probability density functions (PDFs) of TWV. Additionally, we examine the co-variability between daily average TWV and accumulated precipitation to establish links between TWV peaks and precipitation events.

Our results reveal significant differences in TWP PDFs across Chile, ranging from log-normal to normal and inverse log-normal distributions. Notably, the relationship between TWV and precipitation is stronger in central, southern, and Patagonian regions, suggesting regional variability in underlying atmospheric processes. Potential mechanisms driving these differences, such as climatic controls and local meteorological dynamics, are discussed in detail.

These findings provide a benchmark for evaluating the representativeness of general circulation models (GCMs) by comparing observed and modeled TWV distributions. Furthermore, they lay the groundwork for future research into the TWV-precipitation relationship at daily and sub-daily timescales, critical for improving weather forecasts and understanding hydrological processes.

How to cite: Valenzuela, R. and Jara, J.: GNSS-derived tropospheric water vapor and precipitation co-variability along continental Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7362, 2025.

Tropospheric delay is one of the main sources of error affecting high-precision positioning and navigation and is a key parameter for detecting water vapour in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS).

This delay is typically divided into wet and hydrostatic components. ZTD is described as the sum of the Zenith Hydrostatic Delay (ZHD) and the Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) and can be combined with surface pressure and temperature to estimate the integrated content of water vapour above GNSS station.

In climate change context, the precipitable water vapour (PW) is key parameter of atmospheric process and dynamics and its variation is very high in space and time. Its accuracy is paramount for any geodetic or climatic study.

In recent years, data from atmospheric reanalysis products such as ERA-Interim, ERA5 (the fifth generation of reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) have been widely used to obtain information on tropospheric delay and water vapour   (Li et al., 2015; Zhou et al., 2020...)

The main objective of this study is to compute precipitable water vapour from ERA5 reanalysis for four stations in Algeria, which have different types of climate. We opt for using integration method for different level of pressure with ERA5.

The values of water vapour are also compared with radiosondes profiles and GNSS data. The results of this work shows good agreement with a correlation that is not less than not 0.95 and 0.70 compared as radiosondes profiles (Namaoui et al., 2022). The first results are encouraging, in particular for meteorological applications with good hope to introduce another dataset as GNSS to more understand the variation and behaviour of water vapour over a long period of observation.

How to cite: Houaria, N.: Evaluation of atmospheric water vapour based on ERA5 Reanalysis Products and GNSS Observations in Algeria., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8874, 2025.

EGU25-8951 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

A Ground-based GNSS-R Marine Environment Dynamic Monitoring Station 

Xinyue Meng, Fan Gao, Tianhe Xu, and Nazi Wang

Global navigation satellite system-reflectometry (GNSS-R) is considered a promising technology for monitoring marine environments. However, there is still a lack of GNSS-R stations that provide comprehensive data. For this reason, a stationary marine information dynamic monitoring platform using GNSS-R method was constructed in Weihai City, Shandong Province, China. This station consists of two antennas, an intermediate frequency (IF) data collector, a wind sensor and a laptop computer with GPUs. The up-looking antenna is used for direct signal receiving and the down-looking antenna serves for reflected signals. The wind sensor records wind speed and wind direction simultaneously at 1Hz. The collector can export IF data with 62MHz sampling rate which covers signals including GPS L1/L5, BDS B1I/B1C/B2a and Galileo E1/ E5a. The laptop with self-developed software defined receiver (SDR) is employed for processing large amounts of IF data and outputting sea surface height observations based on dual-antennas method in real-time. In the preliminary study, the results based on code-delay method show that the accuracy of BDS B2a can realize centimeter altimetry after post-processing while the accuracy of GPS L5 is approximately in the decimeter range due to the limited number of satellites within the visible range. Additionally, these observations can be also used to retrieve wind speed. We look forward to more research on GNSS-R in the future, for which we can provide data collected by this GNSS-R station.

How to cite: Meng, X., Gao, F., Xu, T., and Wang, N.: A Ground-based GNSS-R Marine Environment Dynamic Monitoring Station, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8951, 2025.

EGU25-8993 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Stacking machine learning model for vertical interpolation of precipitable water vapor using GNSS networks and radio occultation data 

Jiaqi Shi, Min Li, Wenwen Li, Kefei Zhang, and Andrea Steiner

This study proposes a stacking machine learning (SML) model for the vertical interpolation of precipitable water vapor (PWV), addressing the issue of missing near-surface water vapor information in radio occultation (RO) profiles, where measurements do not reach the surface. The model integrates data from over 1500 ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and more than 300,000 profiles from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2), and is trained and validated in two regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Results show that in the North American region, the SML model reduces the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of PWV estimates by over 33% compared to conventional models. In China and Southeast Asia, the RMSE reduction is about 42%, demonstrating notable improvements over conventional model approaches. External validation with radiosondes shows close agreement between the SML-interpolated RO-PWV and radiosonde-PWV. Additionally, the SML-interpolated RO-PWV exhibits high consistency with PWV estimates from RO profiles of the Meteorological Operational satellites (Metop by ROMSAF), which contain complete (background) near-surface information. The SML model performs reliably across various terrains and climatic conditions. This study also preliminarily explores the model performance for extreme weather conditions, providing insights for future enhancements. The new SML model provides a high-accuracy and effective solution for PWV estimation and contributes to advancements in water vapor monitoring, weather forecasting, and atmospheric science research.

How to cite: Shi, J., Li, M., Li, W., Zhang, K., and Steiner, A.: Stacking machine learning model for vertical interpolation of precipitable water vapor using GNSS networks and radio occultation data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8993, 2025.

EGU25-9979 | Posters on site | G5.1

Consistency and Homogeneity of ZTD Estimates from IGS Repro3 

Hugo Breton, Olivier Bock, and Samuel Nahmani

In 2019-2020, the International GNSS Service (IGS) coordinated its third reanalysis of the complete history of GNSS data collected by the IGS global network since 1994. Ten analysis centers (ACs) participated in this so-called “Repro3” effort, using the latest models and methodologies. Several of them provided, among other products, zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) estimates.

In this study, we analyze the quality of ZTD estimates from four ACs (COD, GFZ, GRG, and TUG) along three different aspects: 1) the number and size of ZTD outliers, 2) the mean ZTD differences (or biases), and the standard deviation of ZTD differences between ACs as well as with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis, and 3) the homogeneity of the ZTD time series at individual sites. Overall statistics and case studies are presented for 200 sites.

We find an overall agreement between ACs at the sub-millimeter (bias) and sub-centimeter (standard deviation) level. However, a notable number of outliers and inhomogeneities are observed at individual sites. These are attributed to differences in metadata, particularly antenna information, and, to a lesser extent, to differences in processing strategies and software-specific features (e.g., outlier editing). Controlling the quality of metadata and optimizing the processing strategy are two major pathways for improving the quality of GNSS ZTD estimates for use in climate analysis.

This work is part of the activities of a Joint Working Group of the IAG Inter-Commission Committee on “Geodesy for Climate Research” (ICCC), in cooperation with the IGS ACs.

How to cite: Breton, H., Bock, O., and Nahmani, S.: Consistency and Homogeneity of ZTD Estimates from IGS Repro3, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9979, 2025.

EGU25-10034 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Polarimetric GNSS-Reflectometry data over sea ice during the MOSAiC expedition 

Baojian Liu, Ruibo Lei, Wei Wan, Junming Xia, Maximilian Semmling, Jie Zhang, Yue Xu, Yueqiang Sun, Hongjie Xie, and Gunnar Spreen

Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) has long been explored for retrieving sea ice properties, but in-situ validation in the central Arctic during the freezing season is rare, limiting its application. The primary objective of this study is to advance the current understanding of multi-polarization GNSS-R remote sensing for sea ice. This paper presents observations from the full-polarization GNSS-R(FpolGNSSR) prototype  during the MOSAiC expedition. FpolGNSSR, with four polarization channels and high antenna gain (11.3 dB), aims to assess the impact of sea-ice thickness and permittivity on GNSS-R data, with observations from October 2019 to January 2020, the onset period of ice growth. A four-layer model simulates reflectivity, and the sensitivity of multi-polarization GNSS-R to sea ice is qualitatively analyzed. Subsequently, a simplified model reveals a linear relationship between reflectivity and ice thickness, with regression showing a correlation of 0.74 (P<0.01). The optimal RMSE of sea ice thickness retrieval is 0.13 m for first-year ice in freezing season (0.3–1.0 m thick). 

How to cite: Liu, B., Lei, R., Wan, W., Xia, J., Semmling, M., Zhang, J., Xu, Y., Sun, Y., Xie, H., and Spreen, G.: Polarimetric GNSS-Reflectometry data over sea ice during the MOSAiC expedition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10034, 2025.

EGU25-10048 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

High-resolution zenith delay and tropospheric gradient fields track precipitation during heavy local-scale rainfall events  

Andreas Kvas, Stephanie Haas, Jürgen Fuchsberger, and Gottfried Kirchengast

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology has proven to be a useful tool for the study of weather phenomena and climate change. The sensitivity of GNSS signals to the distribution of water vapor and liquid water in the atmosphere has led to numerous applications of tropospheric delay data products, ranging from the evaluation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models via data assimilation into NWP models, to the observation-driven analysis of rainfall events. In this study, we investigate the behavior of non-hydrostatic zenith delay (ZWD), integrated water vapor (IWV), and tropospheric gradients before, during, and after heavy short-duration local-scale convective precipitation events. The study area located in the WegenerNet 3D Open-Air Laboratory for Climate Change Research Feldbach Region (WEGN3D Open-Air Lab) is situated in the Alpine forelands of southeastern Austria and covers an extent of about 22 km by 16 km. The WEGN3D Open-Air Lab consists of a six-station GNSS network with baselines between 5 km and 10 km, 156 closely spaced meteorological stations, an X-band precipitation radar, and a microwave and broadband infrared radiometer for tropospheric profiling and cloud structure observations, respectively.  We generate non-hydrostatic zenith delay maps for the study region with a temporal resolution of 150 seconds by combining estimated ZWD and tropospheric gradients. These high-resolution ZWD maps are then used to derive IWV maps using surface meteorological measurements and tropospheric profile statistics. We further exploit the approximate relationship between the spatial derivatives of ZWD with tropospheric gradients to compute gradient fields for the entire ZWD map domain.  We compare the spatial patterns of these high-resolution datasets with X-band radar-derived precipitation during heavy convective precipitation events with small spatial extent and high spatial variability. In line with previous studies, we find that the location of precipitation cells is well reflected in the ZWD, IWV, and gradient maps before, during, and after the event, even for very localized, short-lived precipitation events with an extent of only a few kilometers. This shows that GNSS meteorology can provide insights into heavy precipitation events approaching the microscale.

How to cite: Kvas, A., Haas, S., Fuchsberger, J., and Kirchengast, G.: High-resolution zenith delay and tropospheric gradient fields track precipitation during heavy local-scale rainfall events , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10048, 2025.

EGU25-10658 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

Impact of assimilating GNSS Tropospheric Gradients along with Zenith Total Delays for Severe Weather Prediction 

Rohith Muraleedharan Thundathil, Florian Zus, Thomas Schwitalla, Matthias Aichinger-Rosenberger, Galina Dick, and Jens Wickert

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) tropospheric gradients offer valuable information about how moisture is distributed in the atmosphere. These gradients are determined by studying variations in how the atmosphere refracts signals, which are measured based on delays from satellites positioned at different angles. Zus et al. (2023) developed a tropospheric gradient operator that has been added to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Thundathil et al. (2024) conducted several impact experiments showing promising improvements using this operator.

We are currently integrating data from MPG-NET, a multi-purpose GNSS station network in the Swiss Alps (Aichinger-Rosenberger, Matthias, et al., 2023), and data from the Swabian MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems) field campaign of 2023, which focused on extreme hydro-meteorological events in southwestern Germany. As part of this work, we are simulating the occurrence of hailstorm activity in July 2023. We plan to present initial results from the assimilation of ZTD and gradients for this event.

References:

Zus, F., Thundathil, R., Dick, G., & Wickert, J. (2023). Fast Observation Operator for Global Navigation Satellite System Tropospheric Gradients. Remote Sensing15(21), 5114.

Thundathil, R., Zus, F., Dick, G., & Wickert, J. (2024). Assimilation of GNSS tropospheric gradients into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.4. 1. Geoscientific Model Development17(9), 3599-3616.

Aichinger-Rosenberger, M., Wolf, A., Senn, C., Hohensinn, R., Glaner, M. F., Moeller, G., ... & Rothacher, M. (2023). MPG-NET: A low-cost, multi-purpose GNSS co-location station network for environmental monitoring. Measurement216, 112981.

How to cite: Thundathil, R. M., Zus, F., Schwitalla, T., Aichinger-Rosenberger, M., Dick, G., and Wickert, J.: Impact of assimilating GNSS Tropospheric Gradients along with Zenith Total Delays for Severe Weather Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10658, 2025.

EGU25-10677 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Comparisons between GAMIT-derived Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) values from AWS and GNSS met sensor values 

Drishti Agarwal, Somnath Mahato, Pramod Balasaheb Gandugade, Balasubramanian Nagarajan, and Onkar Dikshit

Precise estimation of Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) is crucial for improving the accuracy of data from Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS), particularly in applications requiring high-precision GNSS positioning. This study focuses on evaluating various ZTD models to identify the most accurate approach for mitigating atmospheric delays in CORS data. The research compares ZTD values derived from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), GNSS meteorological sensors, and temperature-pressure-humidity-based models calculated using the GAMIT software with reference values obtained from co-located weather stations and global atmospheric models.

The methodology involves processing GNSS observations from selected CORS sites using multiple ZTD estimation models, including empirical approaches. The accuracy of these models is assessed using key performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias, and correlation with actual weather conditions.

Preliminary results indicate that empirical models show better consistency in stable atmospheric conditions. Additionally, comparisons between GAMIT-derived ZTD values and those from AWS and GNSS met sensors reveal insights into the reliability and precision of each data source under different atmospheric conditions.

The study highlights that precise ZTD estimation is essential for reducing atmospheric errors in CORS data, thereby enhancing GNSS-based applications such as geodesy, surveying, and real-time positioning. The research concludes that combining inputs from various meteorological data sources offers the best accuracy across diverse CORS networks, particularly in regions with varying climatic conditions and atmospheric dynamics.

How to cite: Agarwal, D., Mahato, S., Gandugade, P. B., Nagarajan, B., and Dikshit, O.: Comparisons between GAMIT-derived Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) values from AWS and GNSS met sensor values, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10677, 2025.

EGU25-11277 | Posters on site | G5.1

Ground-GNSS ZTD trends for climate models 

Marcelo C. Santos, Rosa Pacione, Kyriakos Balidakis, Sharyl Byrant, Galina Dick, Riley Hughes, Jonathan Jones, Hanes Keernik, Anna Klos, Yidong Lou, Haroldo Marques, Samuel Nahmani, Thalia Nikolaidou, Kalev Rannat, Raul Valenzuela, Zhang Weixing, Yibin Yao, and Peng Yuan

GNSS Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) estimates are quantities of great interest by climate modellers since atmospheric water vapour is the major greenhouse gas. Therefore, the importance of its accurate, long-term monitoring and evaluation of trends and variability, potentially serving as independent benchmarks to climatological models, both on longer trends derived from GNSS, but also shorter trends, which could be used for assimilation and validation of climate models. ZTD estimates are determined on a regular basis by several processing centers as well as by demand. It has also been demonstrated that series of ZTD estimates can be used for quality control purposes. At the same time, GNSS reached the “maturity age” of 30 years when climate normals of ZTD and gradients can be derived. But what would be the best ZTD series to serve the climate community? What series would offer the most realistic trends? This poster discusses an on-going investigation under the auspices of the International Association of Geodesy, through a joint working group nested within the Inter-Commission Committee on Geodesy for Climate Research. In a previous study, we made use of the ZTD series derived by the third reprocessing campaign (REPRO3), based on a variety of processing modes and models. But this study was partial as the ZTD times series estimated by the Analysis Centers were not covering the same periods. This time, ZTD time series are generated using dedicated PPP scientific software suites. The generated trends are to be compared and analysed.

How to cite: C. Santos, M., Pacione, R., Balidakis, K., Byrant, S., Dick, G., Hughes, R., Jones, J., Keernik, H., Klos, A., Lou, Y., Marques, H., Nahmani, S., Nikolaidou, T., Rannat, K., Valenzuela, R., Weixing, Z., Yao, Y., and Yuan, P.: Ground-GNSS ZTD trends for climate models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11277, 2025.

EGU25-12037 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

From ground- to space-based GNSS tomography - initial results and concepts 

Adam Cegła, Sebastian Makuch, Witold Rohm, Gregor Moeller, Estera Trzcina, Paweł Hordyniec, Samia Gurmani, and Natalia Hanna

Monitoring the Earth's atmosphere is a fundamental activity aimed at understanding its structure and the processes occurring within it. These efforts contribute significantly to improving the quality of numerical weather models and forecasts.

In recent years, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) observations have emerged as one of the primary sources of information about the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. The use of electromagnetic wave properties, which respond to changing atmospheric conditions, is gaining recognition due to its stability, availability in all weather conditions, and the density of observations. GNSS observations are increasingly considered a viable alternative to traditional weather stations, radiosondes, and microwave satellites. However, their application is limited by challenges in deploying receivers in aquatic or mountainous regions. Furthermore, the effectiveness of ground-based GNSS observations is hindered by poor vertical resolution.

An alternative to ground-based GNSS observations is their space-based counterpart—radio occultations (RO). These observations, which are independent of ground infrastructure, serve as an ideal complement to traditional ground-based methods. However, their horizontal and temporal resolution is very limited. Their exclusive use in experiments, such as ROMEX, may not demonstrate their full potential, which can be better realized through integration with other tools, particularly GNSS tomography.

Recent studies have shown that integrating ground-based and space-based GNSS observations in a tomographic solution improves solution quality by approximately 10% on average and reduces total solution errors by about 5%. In regions without GNSS ground stations, the error reduction can reach as much as 30%.

Therefore, in this study, we extend this research by testing the feasibility of using a modified INTOMO (INtegrated TOMOgraphy) software with space-based observations only. The program employs 3D ray tracing to simulate RO ray paths between Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, along with a Kalman filter to calculate the variability of the system of equations. The observation errors are assessed using a pre-defined formula based on RO geometries.

The results presented in this study are derived from the initial phase of research conducted over five days in sea and water-land areas using RO observations from publicly available UCAR services as well as ROMEX data. Each day represents different atmospheric conditions, ranging from sunny weather to tropical cyclones. Additionally, we estimate the errors in the tomographic solution and validate our results using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models and RO processing package (ROPP), with the GPT2 model serving as the a priori data input for tomography. 

How to cite: Cegła, A., Makuch, S., Rohm, W., Moeller, G., Trzcina, E., Hordyniec, P., Gurmani, S., and Hanna, N.: From ground- to space-based GNSS tomography - initial results and concepts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12037, 2025.

EGU25-12098 | Posters on site | G5.1

GNSS for Weather Forecast and Climate Research at GFZ 

Galina Dick, Florian Zus, Rohith Thundathil, Aurélie Panetier, and Jens Wickert

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is an established atmospheric observing system for atmospheric water vapour with high spatiotemporal resolution. Water vapour is under-sampled in the current meteorological and climate-observing systems, and thus obtaining and exploiting more high-quality humidity observations is essential.

 

The operational GNSS data processing at GFZ provides all tropospheric products, zenith total delays (ZTD), precipitable water vapour (PWV), slant total delays (STD) and tropospheric gradients in the framework of different meteorological projects like e.g. E-GVAP ("The EUMETNET EIG GNSS Water Vapour Programme", http://egvap.dmi). E-GVAP is in charge of the collection and quality control of operational GNSS tropospheric products for numerical weather prediction. GFZ is one of the E-GVAP Analysis Centres and processes about 600 GNSS stations in near real-time. The tropospheric products provided by GFZ are used by European weather services for operational forecasts.

 

GFZ contributes to climate research within the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN). Established in 2006, GRUAN, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above the Earth's surface. Currently, this network comprises 33 reference sites worldwide, designed to detect long-term trends of key climate variables such as temperature and humidity. GFZ hosts a central processing facility for the GNSS data and is responsible for the installation of GNSS hardware, data transfer, processing and archiving, as well as derivation of GNSS-PWV products according to the GRUAN requirements. A complementary small scale regional climate station network is the Austrian WegenerNet, which provides since 2007 measurements of hydrometeorological variables with very high spatial and temporal resolution. GNSS-PWV measurements have been included as a priority one measurement of the essential climate variable water vapour to both GRUAN and WegenerNet climate station networks.

GNSS-derived tropospheric products and results of selected validation studies will be presented.

How to cite: Dick, G., Zus, F., Thundathil, R., Panetier, A., and Wickert, J.: GNSS for Weather Forecast and Climate Research at GFZ, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12098, 2025.

EGU25-14650 | Posters on site | G5.1

A ground-based GNSS-R station for soil moisture monitoring  

Fan Gao, Cheng Qian, Xiao Li, Jiqiang Wei, Jilei Mao, Xinyue Meng, Nazi Wang, Yue Zhu, and Yunqiao He

GNSS-R is an emerging technology for remote sensing of soil moisture with the advantages of high tempo spatial resolutions at low cost. Most of the current research has been carried out on the basis of space borne observations, and a large number of results have been obtained. Due to the high altitude of satellites, the Fresnel reflection zone is usually a few kilometers in diameter, which does not meet the requirements of fine agriculture. Ground-based and UAV-borne GNSS-R, due to their low altitude, can provide effective observations to address above problem. We have built a ground-based GNSS-R observatory at the Experimental Farm of Weihai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shandong Province China. The site is equipped with mainly high gain a downward facing left-handed circularly polarized antenna, an upward facing right-handed circularly polarized antenna, an IF signal collector and a computer platform for running the SDR. Currently the main observables that can be output include: SNR, Power Ratio, DDM, etc. The retrievals were evaluated by the in-suit measurements from TDR and the results show that the accuracy of the solutions can reach 3%. In addition, a UAV-based GNSS-R setups are also built and effective measurements were obtained.

How to cite: Gao, F., Qian, C., Li, X., Wei, J., Mao, J., Meng, X., Wang, N., Zhu, Y., and He, Y.: A ground-based GNSS-R station for soil moisture monitoring , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14650, 2025.

EGU25-14987 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

Advancing Sea Ice Thickness Retrieval with Spire GNSS-R Observations 

Seho Kim, Nereida Rodriguez-Alvarez, Xavier Bosch-Lluis, and Kamal Oudrhiri

Monitoring sea ice thickness (SIT) is essential for understanding the role of polar sea ice in the Earth system and addressing the challenges posed by its rapid changes. Arctic sea ice regulates global temperatures, supports ecosystems, and drives ocean circulation. Its decline disrupts ecosystems, intensifies coastal hazards, and impacts indigenous communities. Similarly, Antarctic Sea ice influences ocean stratification, buffers ice shelves from disintegration, sustains marine food webs, and affects human activities such as shipping and fisheries. Comprehensive SIT monitoring in both polar regions is vital for advancing climate science and assessing polar ecosystem health.

This study develops novel algorithms for SIT retrieval using dual-polarimetric and multi-incidence angle GNSS-R data from the Spire Global Inc. constellation. Spire’s GNSS-R receivers collect forward-scattered reflections over ice surfaces in grazing-angle configurations with right-hand circular polarization (RHCP) antennas and near-nadir configurations with left-hand circular polarization (LHCP) antennas. These datasets are utilized in a multi-parameter optimization framework based on a sea ice coherent reflection model to characterize SIT in the critical range of 0.5 m to 1.5 m, where existing remote sensing techniques show significant relative errors. The proposed two-layer model leverages the sensitivity of GNSS-R reflectivity to variations in sea ice dielectric properties, salinity, and density and was validated with data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission in its reflectometer configuration (SMAP-R). The algorithms address the measurement gap between thin and thick ice while enhancing spatial and temporal resolution, enabling weekly coverage of the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans. These advancements provide critical insights into SIT dynamics across both regions, addressing gaps in existing techniques.

This research highlights the potential of GNSS-R technology in sea ice monitoring, contributing to the development of robust SIT retrieval algorithms. By advancing SIT retrieval capabilities, this work lays the foundation for improving climate models, informing navigation and resource management, and aiding in the conservation of fragile polar ecosystems facing environmental changes.

© 2025 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

How to cite: Kim, S., Rodriguez-Alvarez, N., Bosch-Lluis, X., and Oudrhiri, K.: Advancing Sea Ice Thickness Retrieval with Spire GNSS-R Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14987, 2025.

EGU25-15298 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Synergy of GNSS Tomography and Radio Occultation: Methods for Assimilating Refined Water Vapor Fields 

Natalia Hanna, Samia Gurmani, Estera Trzcina, Witold Rohm, Adam Cegła, Paweł Hordyniec, Sebastian Makuch, Gregor Möller, Maciej Kryza, and Robert Weber

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) tomography is a rapidly developing method in meteorology that provides 3D grid-based information about water vapour distribution in the lower troposphere. The standard tomographic solutions are derived by processing signal delays between satellites and ground-based GNSS receiver networks. As the technique has advanced, additional observational data sources have been integrated into the process, enhancing its accuracy and applicability.

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites can provide signal delays similar to those from ground-based networks by tracking GNSS signals. This technique is known as GNSS radio occultation (RO) and relies on radio transmissions from GNSS satellites, where signals pass through the atmosphere and undergo refraction. The degree of refraction is influenced by atmospheric temperature and water vapor concentration. With the exponential increase in the number of LEOs satellites over the past 30 years, this technique has been a cornerstone for atmospheric measurements. It is widely used in meteorological offices as a tool for weather forecasting and shows strong potential for improving tomographic applications. 

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, equipped with its tomographic operator tomoref, facilitates the integration of tomographic products into meteorological fields. In recent years, several studies have explored available practices for tomographic data assimilation. In this work, we present two variants for assimilating combined RO and tomographic solutions. 

In the first approach, radio occultation-derived wet refractivity profiles from the UCAR COSMIC program were incorporated into the tomographic solution using the ATom tomographic software, enhanced with its RO extension. The 3DVar assimilation of tomographic wet refractivity fields into the WRF Data Assimilation system was performed for both combined and ground-based solutions at selected epochs when radio occultation events occurred within the defined domain. The model’s performance was further validated by comparing it to a solution that assimilated conventional GNSS observations. For ground-based stations, GNSS signal delays, expressed as Zenith Total Delays (ZTDs), were assimilated using the gpsztd operator, while space-derived total refractivity profiles were incorporated using the gpsref operator. The resulting meteorological parameters were then compared to external data sources, including radiosondes, meteorological sites, and ERA5 data.

As part of the ongoing OPUS NCN project, an alternative approach to observation integration is being developed. This integrated tomographic solution combines ground-based GNSS observations with RO excess phase data from SPIRE Global within a unified tomography model on the phase observation level. Since RO events are often unevenly distributed across space and time, the combined tomographic observations address these limitations by filling data gaps with ground-based observations. The resulting wet refractivity fields are then assimilated using a variational approach, incorporating the tomographic data into the model over a broader assimilation window. With further fine-tuning, the presented methodology for assimilating tomographic products demonstrates significant potential for future testing in meteorological centres.

How to cite: Hanna, N., Gurmani, S., Trzcina, E., Rohm, W., Cegła, A., Hordyniec, P., Makuch, S., Möller, G., Kryza, M., and Weber, R.: Synergy of GNSS Tomography and Radio Occultation: Methods for Assimilating Refined Water Vapor Fields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15298, 2025.

EGU25-15408 | Posters on site | G5.1

New horizon of tropospheric studies using the next generation GNSS, Network of Satellite Constellations and AI 

Witold Rohm, Paweł Hordyniec, Jan Kapłon, Estera Trzcina, Saeid Haji-Aghajany, Peng Sun, Longijang Li, and Kefei Zhang

We present a collaborative research project between Polish and Chinese scientists, supported by national research funding agencies, to advance GNSS remote sensing (RS) for atmospheric studies. Recent advancements in space technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), and information and communication technologies (ICT) have significantly enhanced our ability to observe, model, and predict atmospheric processes. AI-powered GNSS RS offers robust capabilities for acquiring essential atmospheric parameters, such as water vapor content and profiles, rain rates, wind speeds, and cloud composition.

This project focuses on bridging mathematical models, physical processes, and space- and ground-based observations to achieve the following objectives:

  • Data Fusion: Standardize and integrate GNSS RS measurements from ground- and space-based platforms.
  • Innovative Methods: Exploit advanced observation techniques, including signal polarimetry and reflectometry.
  • Network Integration: Harness the potential of multi-constellation satellite networks, including GNSS, LEO satellites, and Starlink-like constellations, for atmospheric studies.
  • AI-Driven Modeling: Develop seamless connections between GNSS observations and weather and climate models using AI and Digital Twin technologies to investigate interactive atmospheric mechanisms.

This research is supported by NCN project UMO-2023/48/Q/ST10/00278, fostering Polish-Chinese scientific collaboration.

How to cite: Rohm, W., Hordyniec, P., Kapłon, J., Trzcina, E., Haji-Aghajany, S., Sun, P., Li, L., and Zhang, K.: New horizon of tropospheric studies using the next generation GNSS, Network of Satellite Constellations and AI, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15408, 2025.

EGU25-15774 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Investigation on systematic deviations of absolute and double differential partial wet delay between GNSS, PS-InSAR, and ERA-5 model observations 

Alfredo Zárate, Andreas Schenk, Bettina Kamm, and Michael Mayer

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data stacks offer a means to derive integrated water vapor (IWV) from phase delay observations along the satellite line of sight with high spatial resolution. Since interferometric observations are differential in both space and time, they capture relative IWV changes but lack absolute values, which is the variable integration constant. Existing approaches to obtain absolute IWV from InSAR are typically validated against GNSS observations, weather models, or other remote sensing datasets. However, these validations primarily assess the integration methods rather than the observed interferometric phase delay representing partial wet delay.

In this study we investigate the reverse approach by comparing native differential partial wet delay observations from Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PSI), mapped to zenith wet delay (ZWD), with forward-modeled double differential ZWD (DsDt ZWD) derived from GNSS and ERA-5 data. The analysis focuses on a region in Central Europe spanning the France-Germany-Switzerland border from March 2015 to July 2019.

The methodology incorporates data from 4.2 million persistent scatterer (PS) points, ERA-5 ZWD interpolated to these locations, and hourly tropospheric wet delay data from 16 GNSS stations. Temporal and spatial differences were computed to generate synthetic DsDt ZWD data stacks, enabling direct comparison of GNSS and ERA-5 ZWD. Analyses were conducted in single differential (temporal) and double differential (temporal and spatial) domains, with evaluations performed at GNSS stations using statistical metrics such as the coefficient of determination (R²) and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) index. Seasonal variability was also assessed. Additionally, the study examines how local distances around GNSS stations affect the correlation (R² and KGE) between GNSS-InSAR and GNSS-ERA data, evaluating their impact on measurement consistency.

Results reveal valuable insights into the performance of InSAR, GNSS, and ERA-5 ZWD. In the single differential domain, the variance of Dt ZPWD from InSAR aligns closely with GNSS and ERA-5 data. While scatter plots confirm a linear relationship between GNSS and ERA-5, GNSS vs. InSAR trends appear nonlinear. Applying double differences significantly enhances the correlation between GNSS and InSAR, surpassing that of GNSS and ERA-5. The KGE index highlights improved GNSS-InSAR performance, particularly in correlation (R) and variability ratio (Alpha). Seasonal analyses show that GNSS-InSAR excels during summer, with mean R² values twice those of GNSS-ERA, whereas GNSS-ERA performs better in winter. Regional variability is observed, with higher differences in R² and KGE values at stations in the Rhine Valley.

In conclusion, this study demonstrates the capability of PS-InSAR to provide high-resolution, accurate differential ZWD estimates, particularly during summer. PS-InSAR shows a stronger correlation with GNSS data in the double differential domain compared to ERA-5, underscoring the value of high-resolution ZWD data. Systematic variations in GNSS-InSAR correlation, identified as potential quality indicators for GNSS ZWD products, further highlight the importance of integrating multi-source geodetic data to enhance ZWD monitoring.

How to cite: Zárate, A., Schenk, A., Kamm, B., and Mayer, M.: Investigation on systematic deviations of absolute and double differential partial wet delay between GNSS, PS-InSAR, and ERA-5 model observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15774, 2025.

EGU25-15927 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Near Real-Time Tropospheric Delay Assessment Through theVariometric Approach: A Comparative Study of Two-Variable and Separate-Variable Functional Models for ZTD Estimation 

Rachele Fratini, Alessandra Maria De Pace, Augusto Mazzoni, and Mattia Crespi

The variometric approach leverages the use of dual-frequency combinations of time-single differences of GNSS phase observations. Successfully applied in GNSS seismology (VADASE, [1,2]) and GNSS ionospheric seismology (VARION, [3]), this methodology is explored in this study for its potential in near real-time tropospheric delay tracking. Its application to weather forecasting could significantly improve current tools, allowing for a timely detection of severe weather events through real-time tropospheric delay monitoring. This research investigates the retrieval of absolute ZTD trends from variometric zenith tropospheric delay (VZTD) estimates, derived through two different approaches. The first strategy employs a two-unknown weighted least-squares-based functional model to estimate VZTD and receiver clock offset (VCLKR). Reseach shows that this approach may lead to potential ill-conditioning of the design matrix in the least-squares process, possibly due to the correlation between the estimated parameters. To address this issue, a second approach is introduced that utilizes a dedicated functional model to separate the estimation of the two parameters. The comparative analysis of VZTD estimates on permanent station data highlights significant discrepancies between the two approaches, with pronounced differences in the magnitude of the retrieved absolute ZTD trends. This study provides evidence of the sensitivity of the two-variable estimation approach to the correlation between VZTD and VCLKR. Separate variable estimation offers improved results, with the ZTD trend being more consistent with the reference Precise Point Positioning (PPP) estimates. This analysis demonstrates that separating the estimation of VZTD and VCLKR parameters enhances the reliability of absolute ZTD estimates through the variometric approach.

[1] Benedetti, Elisa, et al. ”Global Navigation Satellite Systems seismology for the 2012 M w 6.1 Emilia earthquake: Exploiting the VADASE algorithm.” Seismological Research Letters 85.3 (2014):649-656
[2] Colosimo, Gabriele, et al. ”Realˆatime GPS seismology with a stand−alone receiver: A preliminary feasibility demonstration” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 116.B11 (2011).
[3] Savastano, Giorgio, et al. ”Real−time detection of tsunami ionospheric disturbances with a stand-alone GNSS receiver: A preliminary feasibility demonstration.” Scientific reports 7.1 (2017): 46607

How to cite: Fratini, R., De Pace, A. M., Mazzoni, A., and Crespi, M.: Near Real-Time Tropospheric Delay Assessment Through theVariometric Approach: A Comparative Study of Two-Variable and Separate-Variable Functional Models for ZTD Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15927, 2025.

EGU25-16138 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Optimizing GNSS Tomographic Node Distribution Using Signal Geometry for Enhanced Tropospheric Sensing 

Estera Trzcina, Witold Rohm, and Kamil Smolak

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are a powerful tool for high-resolution tropospheric sensing, offering valuable data for weather forecasting and climate monitoring. One of the key techniques for estimating three-dimensional fields of humidity-related parameters in the troposphere using GNSS data is tomography. Recent studies revealed its potential for application in data assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. However, the accuracy of the tomographic models depends heavily on the approach to the distribution of the tomographic nodes. Traditionally, the nodes are placed on a regular grid, without accounting for the uneven distribution of GNSS signal information in the troposphere, which often leads to suboptimal results.

 

In this study, we propose a novel approach to optimize the spatial arrangement of tomographic nodes, based on the geometry of the GNSS signals and the non-uniformity of the information they provide. The proposed algorithm is based on four steps to define the optimal arrangement of the tomographic nodes: 1) selecting the most valuable GNSS signals in terms of geometry (those that cross with other signals), 2) identification of the intersection spots, 3) cluster analysis of the defined intersections using DBSCAN algorithm, 4) introducing regularly-distributed nodes in the locations with lower-density of the GNSS signals to increase stability of the model. The final solution is performed using a node-based parameterization approach with interpolation of wet refractivity based on natural cubic splines. To evaluate the effectiveness of the optimized node distribution, we compare the performance of our approach with that of three conventional parameterization methods (both voxel-based and node-based with trilinear and spline-based interpolation), using cross-validation based on outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and radiosonde observations. The methodology was tested in an urban area, using zenith tropospheric delay estimates from a dense network of 16 low-cost multi-GNSS receivers located in Wrocław, Poland, with an average inter-receiver distance of 3 km.

 

The results show that the optimized node placement improves the accuracy of wet refractivity estimation, with a reduction in RMSE of 0.5–2 ppm, especially in the altitude range of 0.5–2.0 km. The proposed solution gave the best results compared to the other parameterization approaches (both voxel-based and node-based). The largest impact was noticed in the areas where the highest number of the GNSS signals’ intersections occurred. This study highlights the importance of considering the geometry of GNSS signals when designing tomographic networks and suggests that optimizing node distribution is a promising avenue for future research in GNSS-based tropospheric sensing.

How to cite: Trzcina, E., Rohm, W., and Smolak, K.: Optimizing GNSS Tomographic Node Distribution Using Signal Geometry for Enhanced Tropospheric Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16138, 2025.

Neutral atmospheric bending angles derived from GNSS Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) data are essential for estimating atmospheric properties such as temperature, humidity, and pressure. The region of interest for atmospheric properties extends up to 80 km, where ionospheric effects remain and require ionospheric corrections for accurate RO bending angle retrievals. First-order ionospheric terms are typically removed using a linear combination of L1 and L2 bending angles. However, this approach leaves behind higher-order terms, known as residual ionospheric errors (RIEs), which introduce systematic biases into the RO data.

Healy and Culverwell (2015) demonstrated that RIEs are theoretically proportional to the square of the difference between L1 and L2 bending angles, scaled by a coefficient, kappa, which varies with ionospheric conditions. Kappa correction is a convenient method to estimate RIEs directly from bending angle data without relying on external ionospheric data such as electron density profiles. Angling et al. (2018) proposed a simple linear model to estimate kappa as a function of altitude, F10.7, and solar zenith angle. They used the NeQuick model to generate electron density profiles and derived the linear model for kappa estimation. However, since NeQuick is a monthly median ionospheric electron density model, it has limitations in representing real-world ionospheric variability, leading to discrepancies between the kappa values from the NeQuick-based model and those estimated from actual data. Therefore, a more realistic derivation of kappa using actual RO data is needed to develop an improved kappa model.

This study aims to enhance kappa correction by using real electron density profiles derived from GNSS-RO data. A double Chapman layer is fitted to electron density profiles from COSMIC-II data, incorporating the characteristics of the E and F layers to provide continuous representations of the real electron density profiles. Ray-tracing simulations are conducted to obtain L1 and L2 ionospheric bending angles, which are then used to derive kappa values. These kappa values are analyzed under various ionospheric conditions, characterized by user-end parameters such as F10.7, local time, geomagnetic latitude, and altitude.

To examine more accurately the numerical relationship between kappa and these parameters, kappa data is classified by F10.7 to represent different solar activity conditions (e.g., solar minimum and maximum), and is also divided by local time (e.g., noon, midnight, and transition periods). Kappa values for each class are then fitted to the remaining parameters. The findings suggest that kappa values from the model proposed by Angling et al. (2018) differ from those estimated using observational data in this study. By directly deriving kappa values from real data and applying separate fits for different classes of solar activity and local time periods, the modeling accuracy can be enhanced. This study shows the necessity of tailored kappa corrections for different ionospheric conditions, improving techniques for correction of RIEs in GNSS-RO data. 

References

Healy,S.B., & Culverwell,I.D. (2015). A modification to the standard ionospheric correction method used in GPS radio occultation. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 8(8), 3385–3393.https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3385-2015

Angling,M.J., Elvidge S., & Healy,S.B. (2018). Improved model for correcting the ionospheric impact on bending angle in radio occultation measurements. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 11(4), 2213–2224.https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2213-2018

How to cite: Park, J., Chang, J., Sun, K., and Lee, J.: Residual Ionospheric Error Correction in GNSS Radio Occultation Bending Angles: Parametric Analysis using Electron Density Profiles Derived from COSMIC-II Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18658, 2025.

EGU25-19045 | ECS | Orals | G5.1

AI for GNSS Reflectometry: Setting a New Benchmark for Earth Surface and Atmospheric Monitoring 

Milad Asgarimehr, Daixin Zhao, Tianqi Xiao, Hamed Izadgoshasb, and Jens Wickert

GNSS Reflectometry (GNSS-R) satellite constellations offer unprecedentedly large datasets. This creates a unique opportunity to harness the power of AI for Earth system monitoring using GNSS-R. By using these vast datasets, AI models can “learn” effectively and adaptively. The AI for GNSS-R (AI4GNSS-R) project unlocks the potential of deep learning to produce high-quality and innovative data products.

Previously, we introduced CyGNSSnet, a deep learning model based on a CNN-LSTM architecture, which achieved an RMSE of 1.36 m/s—representing a substantial 28% improvement over the officially operational retrieval algorithm. Building on this success, we now present an advanced version of the model that incorporates external precipitation data through data fusion. This enhanced approach achieves an RMSE of 1.57 m/s for rain-affected data, significantly improving wind speed predictions under extreme weather conditions. For land monitoring, we demonstrate the retrieval of Vegetation Water Content (VWC) from GNSS-R data. Using architectures such as LeNet, our models achieve RMSEs below 0.6 kg/m² compared to SMAP VWC data, validating GNSS-R's capability for  global vegetation moisture monitoring. A highlight of our research is the development of a GNSS-R general foundation model using self-supervised learning. This model facilitates the fusion of multimodal data and enables scalable and accurate retrieval of variety of parameters such as wind speed, soil moisture, and VWC with limited labeled data. Our findings emphasize the scalability, adaptability, and applicability of next-generation AI models for GNSS-R. These advancements establish a new benchmark for the achievable quality and extends application spectrum of spaceborne GNSS-R.

How to cite: Asgarimehr, M., Zhao, D., Xiao, T., Izadgoshasb, H., and Wickert, J.: AI for GNSS Reflectometry: Setting a New Benchmark for Earth Surface and Atmospheric Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19045, 2025.

EGU25-20963 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.1

Evaluating the Performance of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Precipitation and Temperature in Luxembourg and the Greater Region: Insights from WRF and WRFDA 3D-Var 

Haseeb Ur Rehman, Felicia Norma Teferle, Addisu Hunegnaw, Guy Schumann, Jens Wickert, Florian Zus, and Rohith Muraleedharan Thundathil

Compared to alluvial floods, flash or pluvial floods are difficult to predict because they result from intense and brief periods of extreme precipitation. Luxembourg has a history of being impacted by floods, with notable occurrences in January 2011, May 2016, December 2017, January 2018, February 2019, and February 2020. However, July 2021 stands out as the most severe flood year on record in the region. In this study we aim to develop, a high-resolution numerical weather predicRon (NWP) model for effective local heavy rainfall prediction in a nowcasting scenario and provide real-time for flood simulation. The modeling relies on the Weather Research and ForecasRng (WRF) model, which incorporates local Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenith total delays and precipitation observations to simulate small-scale, high-intensity convective precipitation. As part of this, we will also test run the LISFlood flood model in an operational inundation forecast mode, meaning that the flood model will be run with the WRF precipitation forecasts as inputs. The WRF model was configured for the Greater Region, utilizing a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km and incorporating high-resolution static datasets. Meteorological data, i.e., June 20 -July 20, 2021, from the Global Forecast System (GFS) were employed in the model setup as initial boundary condition. Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) data collected from various GNSS stations (245) across Germany and Luxembourg were assimilated into the model. Additionally, observational datasets, including Surface Synoptic Observations (SYNOP), Upper Air Data, Radiosonde measurements (TEMP), and Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) were assimilated. Following this integration, an sensitivity analysis of various meteorological parameters such as precipitation, surface temperature (T2), and relative humidity was performed.

How to cite: Rehman, H. U., Teferle, F. N., Hunegnaw, A., Schumann, G., Wickert, J., Zus, F., and Muraleedharan Thundathil, R.: Evaluating the Performance of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Precipitation and Temperature in Luxembourg and the Greater Region: Insights from WRF and WRFDA 3D-Var, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20963, 2025.

EGU25-76 | Orals | G5.2

The INCT GNSS NavAer infrastructure for Space Weather Monitoring. 

João F. Galera Monico, Italo Tsuchiya, and Bruno Vani

The GNSS NavAer project has been under development since 2017, focusing on creating a comprehensive infrastructure dedicated to monitoring and analyzing space weather phenomena. This project represents a significant investment in scientific research and technology, aimed at enhancing our understanding of various atmospheric and environmental processes. The infrastructure established through the GNSS NavAer project is versatile and can be deployed across several scientific disciplines, including Geodesy, Aeronomy, and Space Weather, among others.

One of the primary motivations behind the GNSS NavAer project is the increasing reliance on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) for navigation, communication, and positioning applications. As these systems become more integral to modern society, understanding the factors that can disrupt their performance is of great insterest. Space weather events, particularly those affecting the ionosphere, have been identified as significant sources of interference that can degrade the accuracy and reliability of GNSS signals.

Ionospheric scintillation, a phenomenon characterized by rapid amplitude and phase fluctuations of GNSS signals, poses a particular challenge. This can result from natural irregularities in the ionosphere, often intensified by solar activity. When these irregularities are present, GNSS signals can experience disruptions that may lead to positioning errors, loss of signal lock, and degraded navigation accuracy. Such disruptions can have serious implications for air navigation, autonomous systems, and any application that relies on precise positioning data.

In this presentation, we will focus on the specific use of the GNSS NavAer infrastructure for monitoring space weather, with an emphasis on IS. The infrastructure includes a network of strategically placed GNSS receivers that continuously collect real-time data on ionospheric conditions, which are stored in a databank and can be explored via a dedicated toll specially developed for that (ISMR Query Tool). By integrating advanced data processing techniques and algorithms, researchers can analyze these data to identify and characterize scintillation events as they occur.

The significance of this monitoring cannot be overstated. By providing timely information on ionospheric conditions, stakeholders can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of space weather on GNSS applications. For instance, real-time observations can help aviation authorities make informed decisions regarding flight operations, ensuring that aircraft can navigate safely even in conditions that would typically be challenging due to ionospheric disturbances.

Furthermore, the GNSS NavAer project facilitates collaborative efforts among scientists and researchers in various fields. By sharing data and findings, the project promotes a more comprehensive understanding of space weather and its impacts. International cooperation is vital, as space weather events often affect multiple regions simultaneously, making a collaborative approach essential for effective monitoring and response strategies.

In conclusion, the GNSS NavAer project is a groundbreaking initiative aimed at enhancing our ability to monitor and understand the complexities of space weather. Through its dedicated infrastructure, it addresses the challenges posed by IS and aims to provide solutions that improve the reliability of GNSS applications. The deterioration in positioning and navigation will be presented, together to some trial to reduce such problem.

How to cite: Monico, J. F. G., Tsuchiya, I., and Vani, B.: The INCT GNSS NavAer infrastructure for Space Weather Monitoring., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-76, 2025.

EGU25-1601 | Orals | G5.2 | Highlight

Thermosphere density from accelerometer and GNSS data 

Jose van den IJssel, Christian Siemes, Sabin Anton, Natalia Hladczuk, and Pieter Visser

Thermosphere density is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the orbit estimation and prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit. With the rapidly growing number of satellites in this region, accurate knowledge of thermosphere density is becoming increasingly important for e.g. collision risk assessment and avoidance, mission design and lifetime predictions. Accurate in situ density observations are valuable to improve our knowledge of the thermosphere. Such observations can be obtained from a limited number of space-borne accelerometers and can also be derived from precise GNSS tracking data of satellites in low Earth orbit, which are more commonly available.

TU Delft maintains a database of precise thermosphere density and crosswind observations derived from the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, Swarm, and GRACE-FO satellites. We continually strive to improve the accuracy of these observations by enhancing our density retrieval strategy. This presentation provides an overview of the most notable improvements. They consist of accurate accelerometer data calibration via precise orbit determination, using high-fidelity satellite geometry models for simulating the aerodynamic and radiation pressure forces, and accounting for the satellite thermal emissions. Recently, an improved retrieval of aerodynamic accelerations from GNSS data was implemented, which leads to a substantially larger signal-to-noise ratio of the GNSS-derived density data, triggering a full reprocessing of the Swarm density observations derived from those data. In a next step, we propose a new gas-surface interaction model that accounts for surface roughness. Since the surface roughness is unknown for the satellites in our database, the model’s roughness parameter must be determined from in-flight data collected during attitude maneuvers and orbital conjunctions. Finally, we have developed a method to comprehensively quantify the uncertainty of density observations, enabling us to augment the observations with uncertainty estimates in the future.

How to cite: van den IJssel, J., Siemes, C., Anton, S., Hladczuk, N., and Visser, P.: Thermosphere density from accelerometer and GNSS data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1601, 2025.

A geomagnetic storm involves a complex interplay between the solar-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling system and may significantly impact satellite navigation and positioning systems through ionospheric responses. The severity of these storms varies across different events, as the ionospheric electron density fluctuates with different spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on the geomagnetic storm that occurred on May 10–11, 2024, recognized as one of the most intense storms during the past two decades. Due to its long-lasting effects on both the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, it has gathered considerable attention from both the scientific community and the public sector.

We present a comprehensive analysis of the ionospheric response to the May 2024 storm and its impacts on precise point positioning (PPP) for geodetic GNSS receivers on a global scale. Unlike previous studies, this investigation focuses on the effects on positioning accuracy at the centimeter level, which is an aspect often overlooked in previous research. The results suggest that this storm caused long-lasting and widespread ionospheric disturbances across the North and South American, Asia, Australian, and European sectors. Consequently, high-precision GNSS positioning with a common processing strategy for PPP ambiguity resolution experienced a significant outage. These PPP outages coincided with the growth and decay of the SYM-H index and persisted for over a day at numerous stations located in North America and Australia. This highlights the vulnerability of high-precision positioning applications to the risks imposed by ionospheric disturbances during periods of intense geomagnetic activity.

How to cite: Yang, Z. and Morton, J.: Global Perspectives on the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm Impact on High-Precision Positioning Based on Geodetic GNSS Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3977, 2025.

EGU25-4104 | ECS | Orals | G5.2

Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Crest Parameters Modeling 

Melessew Nigussie, Norbert Jakowski, and Mainul Hoque

 

Knowing the locations of the north and south Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) crests and their corresponding widths is essential for characterizing the spatiotemporal and solar activity variations of the low latitude ionosphere. The crest region is characterized by strong electron density gradients that significantly affect GNSS applications. However, there is still a lack of complete characterization and modeling of the spatiotemporal and solar activity variations of the EIA crest positions and widths. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to characterize and model the spatiotemporal and solar activity variations of EIA crest widths and positions. These characteristics are described and modeled using 13 years (2009-2017 and 2020-2023) NmF2 data, which are obtained from radio occultation electron density profiles of GRACE, COSMIC-1, and COSMIC-2 satellites over the globe. Crest positions and widths exhibit diurnal, semi-diurnal, and annual variations. There is a slight linear correlation between the solar activity and the crest positions and widths. Furthermore, longitudinal variations in the geomagnetic field declination and the interplay between wave number 3 diurnal tides and planetary waves may be related to longitudinal variations in the crest positions and widths. The results of the analysis are used to create semi-empirical EIA crest position and width models. These models provide a good description of the crest widths and positions verified by vTEC altimeter measurements. These models can serve as subroutines for the improvement of current ionospheric TEC and F2-layer maximum electron density models, applicable for improving terrestrial communications and GNSS positioning and navigation.

 

How to cite: Nigussie, M., Jakowski, N., and Hoque, M.: Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Crest Parameters Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4104, 2025.

EGU25-4348 | ECS | Orals | G5.2

Imaging ionosphere using single-frequency GNSS data onboard nanosatellite missions 

Mona Kosary, Lukas Müller, Natalia Hanna, Markus Rothacher, Simon Rondot, and Gregor Moeller

The Earth’s ionosphere is of considerable importance for medium- and long-range high-frequency communication, positioning, and over-the-horizon radar systems. Positioning and communication applications require new capabilities to understand, model, and predict the ionosphere's characteristics, including electron density profiles and total electron content (TEC), on a global scale. Geodetic observations are crucial for understanding the structure of the ionosphere. Nanosatellite technology has recently grown in importance for a wide range of applications, including communication, technological demonstration, heliophysics, astrophysics, earth research, and planetary science. The goal of this study is to assess the potential for reconstructing the 3D ionospheric characteristic by means of simultaneous measurements from nanosatellite constellations that are equipped with low-cost GNSS receivers.

In this paper, we present a novel ionospheric imaging technique based on a tomography-based modelling approach, using four Astrocast nanosatellites placed in a "string-of-pearls" pattern in December 2022. The investigation found up to 1800 radio occultation events during the 14-hour observation period. To estimate electron density fields, the ionospheric excess phase was extracted from the GPS L1 code and phase measurements and integrated into a tomographic system together with ray-traced signal paths. The findings of this study highlight the potential of this cutting-edge observation technique for three-dimensional sensing of the ionosphere, providing significant opportunities for future atmospheric investigations. 

Keywords: STEC, nanosatellites, tomography technique, GNSS radio occultation measurements

How to cite: Kosary, M., Müller, L., Hanna, N., Rothacher, M., Rondot, S., and Moeller, G.: Imaging ionosphere using single-frequency GNSS data onboard nanosatellite missions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4348, 2025.

EGU25-4742 | ECS | Orals | G5.2

Analysis of complementary LEO-PNT and Radio Occultation observations for Ionospheric reconstruction. 

Lucas Schreiter, Andreas Brack, Benjamin Männel, Adrian Jäggi, Daniel Arnold, and Harald Schuh

Reconstructing the ionosphere with high precision is critical for understanding space weather and its impacts on satellite communications, navigation, and radar systems. Traditionally, ionospheric studies rely on ionosondes and radar measurements as well as ground based Total Electron Content derived from GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) as local measurements, but also GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) and insitu electron density from Low Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEO) as global measurements. While GNSS RO has been instrumental in advancing ionospheric modeling, it is limited by its dependence on GNSS satellite orbits and geometry, leading to gaps in spatial and temporal coverage.

This study explores the integration of slant TEC from LEO-PNT (Position Navigation and Timing) satellites, focusing on the potential of ground-to-LEO signal paths to complement GNSS RO observations. LEO satellite constellations, characterized by their dense, global coverage and low orbital altitudes, offer a promising opportunity for enhancing ionospheric reconstruction in both the altitudes between ground and LEO and altitudes between LEO and GNSS. Ground-to-LEO links provide a unique observational perspective, capturing slant total electron content (TEC) across diverse geometries that are inaccessible to GNSS RO. By incorporating these measurements into tomographic reconstruction frameworks, we demonstrate improved spatial resolution and accuracy in modeling ionospheric structures using synthetic data from well-established models such as IRI-2020.

We perform a series of ionospheric electron density reconstructions. The input data includes synthetic slant TEC from ground to GNSS, LEO to GNSS, LEO-RO, and LEO-PNT. We compare the full solution with LEO-RO and LEO-PNT to solutions, where either one or both of these inputs are omitted. Preliminary results highlight the added value of ground-to-LEO measurements in reproducing the IRI-2020 values and extending coverage in regions with sparse GNSS RO sampling. This approach is further validated using synthetic datasets and real-world orbits from existing LEO satellite constellations, such as Swarm, GRACE-FO, Sentinel, COSMIC-2, Jason-3, Sentinel, Spire, ...

Our findings underscore the transformative potential of leveraging LEO satellites in ionospheric science, paving the way for next-generation ionospheric monitoring systems. This contribution aims to stimulate discussion on future directions in multi-platform ionospheric research, emphasizing the synergies between GNSS RO and emerging ground-LEO link observations.

How to cite: Schreiter, L., Brack, A., Männel, B., Jäggi, A., Arnold, D., and Schuh, H.: Analysis of complementary LEO-PNT and Radio Occultation observations for Ionospheric reconstruction., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4742, 2025.

EGU25-5920 | Posters on site | G5.2

Assessing Space Weather Phenomena using GPS ionospheric TEC analysis 

Yuval Reuveni and Ramadane Hamed Linjouom

Space weather events significantly disrupt Earth's ionosphere, affecting atmospheric properties and degrading radio signal quality. This study investigates ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) variations to characterize space weather phenomena, focusing on the F2 layer. Using GNSS dual-frequency observations and ground- and satellite-based solar indices, the research examines events such as the geomagnetic storms of March 24, 2023, and April 24, 2023, and the solar flare of March 3, 2023.

TEC time-series analysis reveals latitudinal and semi-annual variations in ionization, with maximum TEC during equinoxes due to enhanced thermospheric circulation and dominance of atomic oxygen. In contrast, solstice months exhibit reduced ionization efficiency due to asymmetric heating and dynamics. Correlation analysis during the March storm identifies a significant impact of geomagnetic disturbances, with a negative correlation (-0.44) between the Dst index and TEC. The April storm shows a stronger positive correlation (0.41) between the Kp index and TEC, highlighting the heightened ionospheric response to global geomagnetic activity.

Wavelet analysis uncovers latitudinal periodicities linked to solar rotation cycles. Equatorial regions exhibit TEC modulation with a 22.7-day periodicity due to intense solar EUV radiation, while mid-latitudes show a 24.7-day periodicity influenced by geomagnetic storms and solar radiation. High-latitude regions are dominated by geomagnetic activity, with TEC fluctuations modulated at a 27.9-day periodicity by high-speed solar wind interactions and auroral activity. These findings underscore the complex interplay between solar activity, geomagnetic disturbances, and ionospheric dynamics, providing insights critical for improving space weather prediction models.

How to cite: Reuveni, Y. and Linjouom, R. H.: Assessing Space Weather Phenomena using GPS ionospheric TEC analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5920, 2025.

EGU25-7003 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.2

Global Monitoring System for Ionospheric Disturbances: Initial Findings on the Impact of Scintillations on GNSS Signal Quality Across Frequencies 

Chinh Nguyen, Markus Ramatschi, Jens Wickert, Christina Arras, Benjamin Männel, Markus Bradke, Duong Trung, Tinh Le, Minh Nguyen, and Luyen K. Bui

Understanding ionospheric disturbances is essential not only for enhancing the accuracy of space geodetic applications but also for advancing our knowledge of space weather and space climate dynamics. Recently, this analysis has become increasingly valuable in early warning systems and assessing the effects of natural disasters such as geomagnetic storms, earthquakes, and tsunamis. To facilitate the monitoring of ionospheric instabilities worldwide, the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences is developing a global network of high-rate GNSS stations operating at a frequency of 50 Hz. This report introduces the current status of the monitoring system and presents initial findings from stations located near the magnetic equator. The 3D model of ionospheric perturbations on a global scale (based on ROTI) and locally (based on the S4 index) at monitoring stations clearly illustrates the temporal and spatial characteristics of severe ionospheric conditions. We emphasize the impact of ionospheric irregularities on GNSS signal quality and employ statistical algorithms to evaluate the effects of scintillations on GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo satellite navigation systems across different frequencies.

How to cite: Nguyen, C., Ramatschi, M., Wickert, J., Arras, C., Männel, B., Bradke, M., Trung, D., Le, T., Nguyen, M., and Bui, L. K.: Global Monitoring System for Ionospheric Disturbances: Initial Findings on the Impact of Scintillations on GNSS Signal Quality Across Frequencies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7003, 2025.

EGU25-8298 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.2

Influence of the Severe Geomagnetic Activity over the Performance of the Real-Time Global Ionosphere Maps 

Muhammad Arqim Adil, Tomasz Hadas, and Manuel Hernandez-Pajares

The severe geomagnetic activities pose significant affect in modification of the electron concentrations of the ionospheric layer, especially along the equatorial and polar regions, causing challenging environments considering positioning perspectives. The recent availability of the Real-Time Global Ionosphere Maps (RT-GIMs) by some specialized IGS associated analysis centers such as Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), and Wuhan University (WHU), provides exciting opportunity to comprehend the ionospheric modification under these geomagnetic influences in real-time, while the RTGIMs can be integrated to the real-time precise point positioning (RT-PPP) to reduce the convergence time. Therefore, we perform the accuracy evaluation of these RT-GIM under the presence of a severe G-4 class geomagnetic storm during the year 2024. The performance of these RT-GIM products is evaluated by comparing the RT-GIM vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) values with Final GIMs provided by Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) over land and Jason-3 altimetry satellite over oceans. The CNES RT-GIMs undergoes severe accuracy degradation across all continents recording a significant -20 to -40 TECU bias offset compared to the final CODE GIMs (CODGs) during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Similarly, the performance of the WHU RTGIMs sightly deteriorates upto -10 TECU along the equatorial, south pacific, and south pole regions. However, CAS and UPC RT-GIMs show a relatively consistent performances during the initial and main phase of the severe geomagnetic storm. However, during the final phase of the geomagnetic storm, both WHU and CAS RTGIMs exhibit overperformances of more than 10 TECU over the Antarctica compared to the final CODGs. Additionally, on the comparison with the Jason-3, the CNES and WHU RTGIMs shows worst performances once again with the average deviations of 10-15 TECU over the oceans during the high intensity period of the geomagnetic storm. Meanwhile, UPC RT-GIM remain the most consistent and stable performer (both, globally and over oceans) that provides accurate global ionospheric information, almost similar to the final GIMs, which is promising for their applications in real-time precise GNSS positioning.

How to cite: Adil, M. A., Hadas, T., and Hernandez-Pajares, M.: Influence of the Severe Geomagnetic Activity over the Performance of the Real-Time Global Ionosphere Maps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8298, 2025.

EGU25-9588 | ECS | Orals | G5.2

Enhancing the NeQuick model performance in the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere through radio occultation and POD TEC observations 

Alessio Pignalberi, Bruno Nava, Fabricio Prol, Haris Haralambous, David Themens, Artem Smirnov, Michael Pezzopane, and Pierdavide Coïsson

NeQuick is a global empirical model describing the median climatological behavior of the electron density in the ionosphere–plasmasphere system. NeQuick allows a fast calculation of total electron content (TEC) values up to GNSS heights by numerical integration of the modeled electron density profile, making the model valuable for use in many geodetic and space weather applications. To ensure the highest reliability in TEC predictions, an accurate description of the topside ionosphere region and of the overlying plasmasphere is fundamental since they contain the largest fraction of TEC.

NeQuick describes the topside ionosphere and its plasmaspheric extension with a single semi-Epstein layer anchored to the F2-layer peak with a height-dependent effective scale height H, which is empirically formulated based on three topside parameters: H0, g, and r. H0 is the scale height value at the F2-layer peak; g represents the scale height vertical gradient near the F2-layer peak; while r is the parameter controlling the H behavior very distant from the F2-layer peak, namely, in the plasmasphere. While the H0 and g parameters can be reliably estimated based on COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 (COSMIC-1) radio occultation (RO) profiles, the r parameter requires a different approach due to the limited altitudinal extension of COSMIC-1 RO profiles. To constrain the r parameter, we complemented COSMIC-1 RO profiles with TEC values from precise orbit determination (POD) antennas from the same satellites. POD TEC values are representative of the electron content of the upper part of the topside ionosphere (above the COSMIC-1 satellites) and of the plasmasphere.

The r parameter optimization is based on a twofold procedure. First, given a specific RO profile, H0, g, and r parameters are obtained from the topside section of the RO profile; thereafter, H0 and g are kept fixed while r, starting from the first-guess value obtained from the RO profile, is varied until it matches the topside TEC value obtained by adding the TEC measured by the POD antenna to the TEC of the RO topside section. In this way, the optimized r parameter improves the description of H in the plasmasphere and then the NeQuick modelling of the electron density in this region.

The proposed procedure has been applied to RO profiles and POD TEC values from the whole dataset of COSMIC-1 observations recorded between the years 2006 and 2020. Spatial and time variations of the optimized r values have been studied and compared with previous values obtained by only RO profiles. The reliability of the optimized r values has been tested by calculating H values in the plasmasphere through the NeQuick formulation and comparing them with the corresponding values obtained by Van Allen probes observations. These advancements are presented and discussed in view of the development and implementation of a revised NeQuick topside ionosphere model.

How to cite: Pignalberi, A., Nava, B., Prol, F., Haralambous, H., Themens, D., Smirnov, A., Pezzopane, M., and Coïsson, P.: Enhancing the NeQuick model performance in the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere through radio occultation and POD TEC observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9588, 2025.

EGU25-11256 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.2

Orbital decay of low Earth orbiting satellites during geomagnetic storms 

Levin Walter, Vanessa-Maria Mercea, Daniel Arnold, and Adrian Jäggi

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun can cause geomagnetic storms which cause the thermosphere to expand. This leads to enhanced air drag for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). This work focuses on the evaluation of orbital decay with a focus on selected geomagnetic storm events. Using the Bernese GNSS Software (BSW), reduced-dynamic orbits of different LEO satellites are computed from GNSS data of on-board receivers, where non-gravitational accelerations are modelled by means of estimated empirical piecewise-constant accelerations (PCAs). The orbital decay is then calculated by using the PCAs, or, in case of the GRACE Follow-On satellite, calibrated accelerometer data, to solve Gauss’s perturbation equation for the satellite’s semi-major axis. This method is compared to an approach where a fit model is applied to the osculating semi-major axis derived from the reduced-dynamic orbits computed by BSW. The fit model consists of a piece-wise linear model of the time-varying mean orbital decay and the time-varying amplitudes of the most dominant periodic oscillations. The results of both methods are compared and found to be similar for large orbital decays induced by CMEs. But the fit model struggles with low orbital decay. The Gaussian perturbation equation approach is far more precise than the fit model and can react, e.g., instantaneously to satellite maneuvers which change the semi-major axis. For satellites without an on-board accelerometer, PCAs can be estimated and used for the numerical integration. 

How to cite: Walter, L., Mercea, V.-M., Arnold, D., and Jäggi, A.: Orbital decay of low Earth orbiting satellites during geomagnetic storms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11256, 2025.

We present an expansion of the near real-time VTEC maps over Europe produced by the ROB-IONO software (Bergeot et al., 2014) from multi-constellation GNSS data to a global scale. For this purpose, we use median polish kriging to interpolate the VTEC data, which is a purely statistical technique that does not rely on background ionospheric models. We compare the derived global map products to those of other services and the entire global VTEC dataset for validation.

The generated maps are used to study the geomagnetic storm which commenced on 10 May 2024, with a focus on identifying storm-time signatures in the VTEC maps by comparing to the median maps from the preceding solar rotation period. Additionally, we investigate the changes in distribution between the ionospheric and plasmaspheric VTEC at varying latitudes before and during the storm by comparing with COSMIC-2 and EISCAT data to isolate the plasmaspheric contribution.

How to cite: Dreyer, J., Chevalier, J.-M., and Bergeot, N.: Global VTEC Maps of the Geomagnetic Storm in May 2024 and Their Application to Study the Evolution of the Ionospheric and Plasmaspheric VTEC Distribution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12567, 2025.

The data volume of ionospheric observations has been dramatically enlarged these years by ground-based and spaceborne measuring techniques including global GNSS network, scientific and commercial plans of radio occultation, and satellite altimetry. Given the diverse observing geometries, vertical data coverages and intermission biases among different measurements, it is imperative to evaluate their absolute accuracies and estimate systematic biases to determine reasonable weights and error variances when integrating different sources of data. This research focus on the data assessment of several satellite missions launched in China such as MSS-1 and Yunyao constellation, and conducts comprehensive comparison among radio occultation, global ionospheric maps and satellite altimetry. The large amount of daily ionospheric radio occultation data from about 20 satellites and ground GNSS observations are devoted to the data assimilation system driven by Kalman filter. The observational accuracy provides essential information for determining error covariance and weight matrices in the total electron content assimilation model.

How to cite: Wu, M.: Comprehensive evaluation of spaceborne and ground-based ionospheric observations and their application in data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15062, 2025.

EGU25-15445 | Orals | G5.2

Grazing angle GNSS reflectometry with the PRETTY satellite: an opportunity to resolve the structure of ionospheric layers 

Maximilian Semmling, Mario Moreno, Florian Zus, Andreas Dielacher, Mainul Hoque, Jens Wickert, and Hossein Nahavandchi

The Passive REflecTometry and dosimeTrY (PRETTY) satellite has been launched into a low Earth orbit, of about 570 km altitude, on 9th October 2023. Its main payload is dedicated to reflectometry using signals of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The on-board reflectometry receiver provides delay maps of the Earth-reflected signal. The main objective of the mission is to exploit the delay maps for ocean and sea ice altimetry.

Observations are recorded in grazing angle geometry. It means that incident and reflected ray reach a maximum elevation angle at the reflection point of 15°, higher elevation observations are out of scope. These grazing angle observations have advantages compared to higher ones: reduced roughness effect on the reflected signal, higher coherent reflection power and wider coverage of reflection points over the ocean. However, grazing geometry brings also challenges: a reduced altimetric sensitivity (to surface height changes), as well as, higher magnitude and complexity of atmospheric delays.

The presented study modifies the initial altimetric idea and uses reflectometry data with known surface height to investigate the structure of ionospheric layers. The study concentrates on four PRETTY delay maps recorded over Arctic sea ice. Correcting the delay for other effects, especially surface height and troposphere delay, reveals characteristic ionospheric delay profiles. These profiles, of the reflected signal delay relative to the direct signal, reach a minimum in the grazing angle range before they vanish in the limit of tangent Earth reflection. Both, retrieved profiles, from PRETTY observations, and simulated profiles, assuming ionospheric electron density of the Neustrelitz Electron Density Model (NEDM), confirm the characteristic minimum of the profiles.

For a deeper analysis of the profiles we run simulations with configurable electron density distribution according to Chapman layers and the PRETTY satellite geometry. Dominating F-layers are assumed with peak heights from 250 to 350 km. The corresponding profiles show minima from about 2° to about 4° of elevation. The inversion of peak height and other parameters of ionospheric layers from delay profiles will be developed further in the on-going study. An extended validation of results, with different ionosphere models, shows an overall agreement in the existence of local minima. However, uncertainties among the models persist with minima positions deviating by 1 or 2 degrees. It indicates space for improvement of existing models.

How to cite: Semmling, M., Moreno, M., Zus, F., Dielacher, A., Hoque, M., Wickert, J., and Nahavandchi, H.: Grazing angle GNSS reflectometry with the PRETTY satellite: an opportunity to resolve the structure of ionospheric layers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15445, 2025.

EGU25-16238 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.2

Analysis of thermospheric and ionospheric variations during recent solar storms in 2024 in the framework of the project CASPER 

Cornelia Tieber-Hubmann, Andreas Strasser, Manuela Temmer, Sandro Krauss, Florian Koller, Daniel Milosic, Barbara Süsser-Rechberger, and Torsten Mayer-Gürr

The project CASPER is an interdisciplinary collaboration between the Institute of Geodesy and the Institute of Physics and is funded by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency. It deals with the influence of solar eruptions such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares on the Earth's neutral atmosphere and ionosphere. In this study we focus on the most severe geomagnetic storms that occurred in solar cycle 25. This includes the effects of the extreme "Gannon storms" on 10/11 May, as well as solar eruptions that occurred in August and October in 2024. We present a detailed analysis of various interplanetary and terrestrial measurements to allegorise the individual solar storms. For the thermospheric variations, the analysis is based on observations from the GRACE-FO and SWARM satellite missions using accelerometer and kinematic orbit data. On this basis, we are able to present changes in the Earth's neutral in terms of satellite orbit decays. Regarding the ionosphere, the part of the Earth’s atmosphere where solar radiation ionizes the atoms and molecules, we present the latest implementations in our software GROOPS. The slant total electron content (STEC) parameter is determined using a least-squares adjustment approach. To enhance the accuracy, high-order ionospheric correction terms are integrated into the estimation process. This information allows the derivation of additional ionospheric parameters, such as vertical total electron content (VTEC), for various altitude layers to be comparable with neutral density estimates. Finally, in terms of the predictability of the impact of solar eruptions on the satellite altitude, we also present the current status of the SODA forecast service which is part of the ESA's Space Safety Programme Ionospheric Weather Expert Service Centre (I.161).

How to cite: Tieber-Hubmann, C., Strasser, A., Temmer, M., Krauss, S., Koller, F., Milosic, D., Süsser-Rechberger, B., and Mayer-Gürr, T.: Analysis of thermospheric and ionospheric variations during recent solar storms in 2024 in the framework of the project CASPER, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16238, 2025.

EGU25-17141 | ECS | Orals | G5.2

An Update to TU Graz Thermospheric Density Estimates and Fine-Tuning Attempts 

Andreas Strasser, Felix Öhlinger, Sandro Krauss, Barbara Süßer-Rechberger, and Torsten Mayer-Gürr

Over the years, TU Graz has processed thermospheric densities for several satellite missions. Thanks to recent adaptations of our GROOPS software package, we have been able to estimate such a time series for TerraSAR-X, a LEO satellite in sun-synchronous orbit, up to the present day. In order to make these data available to researchers who are interested in space weather related studies, we are switching to a new publishing scheme to provide the data with less latency.

Estimating these thermospheric densities from accelerometer measurements or GNSS observations is a tedious process that depends on several parameter choices. For example, the Sentman model is often used to calculate drag coefficients for satellites. In addition to the geometry of the satellite, the drag coefficient of this model depends on the surrounding gas (temperature, composition) as well as the surface properties of the satellite (energy accommodation coefficient). While it is easy to compute solutions for different parameter choices, it is usually not trivial to decide which result is best.

In this pre-study, we investigate the possibility of fine-tuning the choice of aerodynamic parameters by evaluating the quality of the resulting gravity field. This may be a feasible approach for GRACE-FO due to the specific design of the mission: two identical satellites following each other in essentially the same orbit while measuring their precise distance. The failure of the second satellite's accelerometer requires a "transplant" of the measurements from the first satellite to the second. This procedure includes the estimation of the thermospheric density, and thus the gravity field is sensitive to the chosen parameters.

How to cite: Strasser, A., Öhlinger, F., Krauss, S., Süßer-Rechberger, B., and Mayer-Gürr, T.: An Update to TU Graz Thermospheric Density Estimates and Fine-Tuning Attempts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17141, 2025.

This study presents a comprehensive nowcasting and forecasting approach for ionospheric peak parameters, including foF2, NmF2, and TEC, using a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN). This approach integrates multiple datasets, utilizing extensive ground-based ionosonde station measurements and COSMIC satellite observations to model and predict these parameters in relation to ionospheric conditions and space weather dynamics.

Our work also explores the response of ionospheric peak parameters to extreme solar eruptions and geomagnetic storms, providing critical insights into the behaviour of the ionosphere under these challenging conditions. The PINN incorporates fundamental physical laws as constraints, including the Chapman function, continuity equation, ion production rates as a function of F10.7, recombination reactions, geomagnetic and electric fields, and Abel inversion effects. Our model utilizes a comprehensive set of input features, including COSMIC satellite foF2, NmF2, TEC measurements, temporal and spatial parameters, and various solar and geomagnetic indices. Data normalization and a deep neural network architecture with multiple dense layers and batch normalization were employed to capture complex, non-linear relationships in the ionospheric data. These constraints enable highly accurate predictions  achieving a high average correlation of 0.92 between COSMIC satellite and ionosonde measurements.

A detailed random forest parameter importance analysis identified key contributors to ionospheric variability, revealing that atmospheric dynamics (meridional and zonal winds) and solar activity (notably F10.7) play dominant roles. Spatial and temporal factors were also considered critical compared to other space weather parameters.

These findings highlight the potential of physics-informed machine learning as a robust tool for advancing our understanding of ionospheric behaviour and improving predictive capabilities for space weather applications. Furthermore, this study underscores the value of integrating ground- and space-based observations with physical principles to achieve accurate and reliable forecasts of ionospheric peak parameters.

How to cite: Seba, E. and Poedts, S.: Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Predicting Ionospheric Peak Parameters Using Ground- and Space-Based Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18292, 2025.

EGU25-19114 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.2

Performance of data and pilot code/channel of modernized GPS signals  

Ana Lucia Christovam de Souza, Fabricio Prol, Alison Moraes, and João Francisco Galera Monico

Ionospheric scintillation significantly impacts the performance and reliability of space-based navigation and communication systems.  Scintillation effects cause fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) GNSS received signals. Significant variations in signal power causes loss in signal-to-noise ratio which, in combination with phase variations, can severely impact GNSS receiver performance by impairing signal acquisition or causing a loss of lock during tracking. Several studies, such as Delay et al. (2015), Jiao et al. (2016), and Moraes et al. (2017), have shown that modern GNSS signals are more vulnerable to ionospheric scintillation. This increased vulnerability arises from their lower operating frequencies, which make them more sensitive to small-scale plasma irregularities and rapid phase distortions caused by ionospheric irregularities. However, there is a notable lack of research on the performance of modernized GNSS observables, particularly regarding how different codes and channels perform across GNSS signal frequencies under ionospheric scintillation. To address this gap, this work evaluates the behavior of data and pilot codes/channels across different frequencies under challenging ionospheric conditions, focusing on signal availability, continuity using different signal and channel combinations. In terms of signal availability, the results reveal that L1 signals (C1C, C1X, L1X and L1C) exhibit the highest availability and resilience to ionospheric scintillation, followed by L5 and L2 signals (L5X, C5X, L2X, C2X), which exhibit moderate availability and reliability. The lowest signal availability is observed in the L2 signals (L2W, C2W), reflecting reduced performance.  The performance of modernized GPS signals during ionospheric scintillation varies by signal frequency.  The L5 signal is the most affected, showing the highest percentage of ionospheric scintillation index (S4) values, indicating significant susceptibility to scintillation.  The L1 signal is the least affected, with the lowest S4 percentages, suggesting greater resilience. The analysis demonstrates that the L1X signal exhibits the highest continuity, with the lowest percentage of data gaps, indicating superior robustness. In contrast, the L2X signal shows the highest susceptibility to interruptions, with the greatest percentage of data gaps, followed by the L5X signal, which displays slightly fewer gaps than L2X. The observed correlation between ionospheric scintillation intensity and signal loss highlights the frequency-dependent nature of signal disruptions, with L1X proving to be the most resilient and L2X the most vulnerable. These findings highlight the frequency-dependent nature of GNSS signal performance and the importance of selecting appropriate signal and channel combinations for reliable ionospheric estimations.

How to cite: Christovam de Souza, A. L., Prol, F., Moraes, A., and Monico, J. F. G.: Performance of data and pilot code/channel of modernized GPS signals , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19114, 2025.

EGU25-19658 | Posters on site | G5.2

Analysis of GPS positioning disturbing periodic radiation bursts in 24th solar cycle 

Madara Normand, Janis Balodis, and Ingus Mitrofanovs

The main objective of the present study is to perform  analysis of the space weather impact in the cases of each day periodic occurrence in various seasons in selected monthly nights at the GPS positioning results of Latvian CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) in time span 2007 to 2017. The analysis performed of the GPS (Global Positioning System) 90-second kinematic post-processing solutions, obtained using Bernese GNSS Software v5.2. To complete this study, the time series of daily outliers are analyzed for all the Latvian CORS that occurs simultaneously in two or more CORS stations. Over 36 million position determination solutions were examined. Daily regular ionospheric scintillation phenomena with duration around 4-7 minutes were observed in solar activity years daily, starting from March till December. The research articles were searched where similar scintillation events have been analyzed. The articles on Pc1 scintillation waves were found where similar phenomena has been described. The results of statistical analysis of the occurrence events will be presented, focusing especially on the periodic ionospheric scintillations observed in the region of Latvia, with a latitude around 57º N.

How to cite: Normand, M., Balodis, J., and Mitrofanovs, I.: Analysis of GPS positioning disturbing periodic radiation bursts in 24th solar cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19658, 2025.

EGU25-20153 | ECS | Posters on site | G5.2

High-Frequency Variations in Thermospheric Densities from GRACE C Data 

Myrto Tzamali, Alexi Glover, and Juha-Pekka Luntama

Thermospheric density measurements are crucial for satellite operations and for understanding the dynamic behaviour of the upper atmosphere, where thousands of LEO satellites orbit. In this study, we use thermospheric densities derived from high-precision accelerometer data from GRACE-FO, provided by Delft University, sampled at 0.1 Hz (every 10 seconds). We focus on high-frequency density variations (f > 1 mHz) observed between 2018 and 2024, a period covering the solar minimum of cycle 24 and the ascending phase of cycle 25. As solar maximum approaches, the densities increase by two orders of magnitude.

After removing diurnal, semi-diurnal, and seasonal periodicities, higher-frequency disturbances become apparent, even during low geomagnetic activity (Kp = 3), with stronger signatures near the North Pole. We observe a consistent downward trend when GRACE-C is within the Earth’s shadow, while more intense disturbances occur near the solar terminator. During the ascending phase of cycle 25, strong equatorial signals also emerge. A correlation analysis with the Hp30 geomagnetic index highlights the importance of using high-cadence geomagnetic indices to capture short-term disturbances. Additionally, spectral analysis during major geomagnetic storms over the six-year period shows how thermospheric densities respond to increased geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes in both hemispheres.

How to cite: Tzamali, M., Glover, A., and Luntama, J.-P.: High-Frequency Variations in Thermospheric Densities from GRACE C Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20153, 2025.

The neutral mass density of the upper thermosphere can be determined by orbit and accelerometer data from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. Especially the accelerometers of geodetic satellites, measuring the non-gravitational accelerations acting on these satellites, are a very useful observation for precise density estimation also on very short time scales. Currently, due to the lac of direct measurements, the most accurate atmospheric density estimates are computed from such data.

We present here our latest density solution based on a new approach for the drag coefficient (Cd) modelling. We employ the DRIA (Diffuse Reflection with Incomplete Accommodation) drag model but changed the utilization of the model with our detailed Finite Element Models (FEM) processing and the shadowing computation within the approach. We compare resulting density and Cd values with our previous published data (zarm.uni-bremen.de/zarm_daten/), as well as with data from TU Delft and show the effect of the different Cd modelling approaches on the estimated density. Exemplarily we use here the data from GRACE and GRACE-FO.

How to cite: Wöske, F., Fumenti, F., Huckfeldt, M., and Rievers, B.: Updated thermospheric neutral density retrieval from geodetic satellite's accelerometer data with improved drag model based on DRIA and detailed finite element satellite models , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20326, 2025.

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